Rather than begging the government to do the impossible, return everything to the way it used to be, wouldn't it make more sense for companies to start planning and organizing themselves for the new dispensation?
Marks & Spencer chief Sir Stuart Rose today called on the government to do all it could to restore consumer confidence...
If the confidence comes from the government and not the individuals and businesses that actually make up the economy, then this confidence is nothing more than a temporary illusion.
These kind of illusions of wealth and false confidence are at the root of all the problems we currently have.
The NY times attributes today's sell off to "foreshadowed a bleak season for fourth-quarter earnings, sparking a sell-off."
Wasn't this being predicted by just about every one six weeks back? Just what are those people thinking that continue to go long in this environment? I really do not understand.
The No Child Left Behind Act, introduced as HR 1 during the 107th Congress, was passed in the House of Representatives on May 23, 2001, United States Senate on June 14, 2001 and signed into law on January 8, 2002.
"Joe Francis and Larry Flynt claim the economy has made America's sexual appetite go limp, so they're going to the one place where sex is always rampant -- Congress.
Flynt (the "Hustler" guy) and Francis (the "Girls Gone Wild" dude) are asking the government for a $5 billion bailout,"
Wasn't this being predicted by just about every one six weeks back? Just what are those people thinking that continue to go long in this environment? I really do not understand. syvanen | 01.07.09 - 6:30 pm | #
It's really not that complicated. Bulls think that everyone who was going to sell has already sold. When there are no sellers left, you want to be a buyer before everyone else jumps in.
You're confused because you think that "bad economy means everyone should sell and good economy means everyone should buy."
Retailer's want sales tax exempt "holidays". That'll work wonders for states' budgets. dr munch | 01.07.09 - 6:22 pm | #
Since they are in England... we can cross that particular worry off our list, along with US govt. bailout. I still have plenty of other worries though, so don't panic.
Larry Flynt was JOKING....if you read what he said, it has to be sarcasm.
How big a deal is it that the German bonds didn't sell? I know people say that we will simply buy our own bonds, but couldn't Germany buy their own bonds too? Does Germany sell their bonds in dollars? Help me understand this please.
"It's really not that complicated. Bulls think that everyone who was going to sell has already sold. When there are no sellers left, you want to be a buyer before everyone else jumps in.
You're confused because you think that "bad economy means everyone should sell and good economy means everyone should buy."
PapaSloth"
Makes sense. I have been duped by those nutty news articles that attribute every blip in the Dow to some real economic factor.
It's really not that complicated. Bulls think that everyone who was going to sell has already sold. When there are no sellers left, you want to be a buyer before everyone else jumps in.
You're confused because you think that "bad economy means everyone should sell and good economy means everyone should buy."
PapaSloth | 01.07.09 - 6:33 pm | # "
My Dad says that if January is up (which doesn't look likely), then we're beginning to see the end of this. If it's down, then holy $#!+
""Thanks- My porn addiction is apparently making me blind"
xxxxx | 01.07.09 - 6:33 pm | #
Hair on the palms???
Harry"
Now I know why my wife calls me Yetti.
And to that comment about stopping before you need glasses. That would mean that I would have had to stop before puberty. I shudder at that nightmarish scenario.
Makes sense. I have been duped by those nutty news articles that attribute every blip in the Dow to some real economic factor. syvanen | 01.07.09 - 6:36 pm | #
Heh, it's like poker. A poor player just looks at his own cards and gets excited when he has a good hand. A fair player gets excited when he thinks his hand is better than yours. A good player gets excited when he thinks you think you have a better hand than him, but he has a better hand than you do. A great player gets excited when he thinks you think he thinks you think he has a better hand than you, but etc.
When bad news comes out and the market doesn't move, or moves up, some people think that means that everyone who was going to sell has already sold, and therefore, the bad news is actually bullish for the market. So, bad news with good market action is, itself, actually bullish news.
" Pissed Off In California writes:
""Thanks- My porn addiction is apparently making me blind"
xxxxx | 01.07.09 - 6:33 pm | #
Hair on the palms???
Harry"
Now I know why my wife calls me Yetti.
And to that comment about stopping before you need glasses. That would mean that I would have had to stop before puberty. I shudder at that nightmarish scenario.
Pissed Off In California | 01.07.09 - 6:40 pm | # "
Don't worry; 98% of men do it, and the other 2% are lying.
Equity prices and sales down 50% everywhere else, and NRA reports they're at .97 from 1.00 15 months ago? They should invite the NAR over to celebrate their winning numbers.
OT- Roubini says:
" This scenario is dangerous for many reasons. A number of central banks will be close enough to setting interest rates of zero that their economies fall into a triple whammy: a liquidity trap, a deflation trap, and debt deflation. In a liquidity trap, the banks lose their ability to stimulate the economy because they cannot set nominal interest rates below zero. In a deflation trap, falling prices mean that real interest rates are relatively high, choking off consumption and investment. This leads to a vicious circle wherein incomes and jobs are falling, with demand dropping still further. Finally, in debt deflation, the real value of nominal debts rises as prices fallbad news for countries such as the United States and Japan that have high ratios of debt to GDP.
As orthodox monetary tools become ineffective, policymakers will turn to unorthodox approaches. Well see traditional fiscal policy, in the form of tax cuts and spending increases, but also worldwide bailouts of lenders, investors, and financial institutions, as well as borrowers. Central banks will inject massive amounts of cash into financial systems to unclog the liquidity crunch. More radical actions, such as outright purchases of corporate and government bonds or subsidization of mortgage rates, might also be necessary to get credit markets functioning properly again. "
I'm worried because I think we may already be there.
The German bond sale failure is a big deal. After Treasuries, I would have figured that Deutschland credits would be next in line as far as sovereign ratings go. Why wouldn't the Chinese chip in here?
Meredith Whitney has rightfully made a name for herself throughout the current credit crisis mostly by being right in her calls and her latest call in a research note late Monday is a doozy. The prominent Oppenheimer & Co. analyst suggested that the pace and effect of securities downgrades in the fourth quarter alone will be enough to eat through the roughly $300 billion in funding provided to banks via the U.S. Treasury through its Troubled Asset Relief Program and associated capital purchase program.
" Comrade Terry writes:
So, bad news with good market action is, itself, actually bullish news.
PapaSloth | 01.07.09 - 6:42 pm | #
I'm getting dizzy....
Comrade Terry | 01.07.09 - 6:45 pm | # "
IIRC, we saw this in the early '90's. The market is a leading indicator; when it sees bad news, it means that the correction is taking place, and you need to get back in before prices start rising.
Big losses mean writing off bad debt.
Layoffs mean "freeing up" of poorly allocated resources.
Yada, yada, yada
Or maybe not
" crispy&cole writes:
xxxxx - bring on the pain! Everyone here who is awake is ready...screw everyone else
crispy&cole | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 6:49 pm | # "
There was too much happy banter about porn, steaks and such in the last thread.
Aren't these worldwide bailouts the pièce de résistance of the credit world? Anybody in doubt as to how aggressive, how leveraged, how wreckless and how dishonest to be in the next business cycle?
Big losses mean writing off bad debt. Layoffs mean "freeing up" of poorly allocated resources. Yada, yada, yada Or maybe not xxxxx | 01.07.09 - 6:50 pm | #
Most people are wrong about the direction the market will take. Most people think the economy sucks and that the market will go down, that we'll retest our 7500 DJIA lows, at least, and that the stimulus plan is a big waste of money and can't possibly work. Therefore, the market has already put in a bottom, the economy will recover, and the stimulus plan will work.
I mean, Obama himself has been going on TV and telling everyone the economy is a total trainwreck and that we're going to be running multi-trillion dollar deficits. Is there maybe someone living on a little island in the middle of the South seas who doesn't know the economy sucks at this point? I think you'd have to look around to find anyone with skin in the game on the long side who hasn't already been completely toasted. So, who is left to capitulate? The new longs who bought in from 7500-8000? Warren Buffett? I think the fat lady may have already sung this time around.
"So, who is left to capitulate? The new longs who bought in from 7500-8000? Warren Buffett? I think the fat lady may have already sung this time around.
Here's a couple of reasons that the market can go down. Credit crisis is only 50% through. Massive amount of hedge fund redemptions have been gated.
I also know tons of people who are talking about dumping everything in their 401k if the market makes a good run close to 10k. Pissed Off In California | 01.07.09 - 6:59 pm | #
Yeah, we'll see how strong their resolve is after the market is up 40% from the bottom and still climbing. They wanted to sell the most at DJIA 7500 but couldn't, they'll want to buy more at DJIA 10K. People suck at market timing.
until we get true capitulation and nobody wants to own stocks period
This assumes the financial structure itself holds together. Essentially, the Feds are altering Reality to contain the Crash, tweaking the switch settings of the Universe so the necessary Physical Laws remain consistent enough to maintain Life.
What about the flip side? All of the shorts who got it right and rode the whole thing down from 12000 or 13000 or 14000... Do you really think they are still short?
What lunatic would not take profits after a 40% market crash?
Very possible all that's really left are "buy and hold" longs who are hoping/praying to get back a piece of what they lost.
How many 401(k) holders are saying, "If it gets back above 10,000, I should probably sell half"?
So you think a trailing PE of 16 was the point of capitulation? Most of the folks I know did not sell their stocks during the recent crash, but held on to the belief that stock prices would recover. You don't panic and sell at the bottom.
That's probably smart thinking, but it's not the thinking that you see at the point of capitulation.
What we saw in the recent crash was just the first wave of deleveraging.
So, who is left to capitulate? The new longs who bought in from 7500-8000? Warren Buffett? I think the fat lady may have already sung this time around. PapaSloth | 01.07.09 - 6:56 pm | #
There's a ton of people who didn't capitulate the last time around.
Last time I discussed markets with someone I didn't know well (i.e. someone who didn't know I was a bear), he was telling me "oh, I'm still 35, and have 30 years to go. I just drop the 401k statements in a drawer without opening them".
There are many people out there like that, and that doesn't even begin to touch all the knife-catchers who jumped in about 1/2 to 3/4 uip this rally, who will absolutely panic-sell the moment things get ugly again.
Very possible all that's really left are "buy and hold" longs who are hoping/praying to get back a piece of what they lost. Nemo | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 7:03 pm | #
I was one of those guys who lost his ass during the tech bubble last decade, and pretty much stayed out of the market over the next five or six years, so I know what you mean. But meanwhile, it seems like everyone else forgot and bid the Dow up to 14K in my absence. People have really short memories (and attention spans).
I'm using Bob Doll at blackrock as my advisor. He said buy in Jan 08 and I sold. Now Bob says buy again and I'm selling short. Bob's been a great advisor.
So, who is left to capitulate? The new longs who bought in from 7500-8000? Warren Buffett? I think the fat lady may have already sung this time around.
Many folks that I know liquidated only small amounts of their portfolio during the past 3 months. Quite a few bought stocks during October with whatever spare cash they had.
These acquaintances are pissed at having sustained losses of between 20% and 50% in their investment accounts. But they have not capitulated. Yet.
During my holiday conversations, their attitude is summarized as: "Why sell now, stock have already fallen a lot."
I did not have the heart to ask them under what conditions they would capitulate.
What do you guys think? What would frighten someone who held on from Dow 14K to Dow 9K to finally give up and sell?
So you think a trailing PE of 16 was the point of capitulation?
Just to play both sides...
P/E ratios are useless when the "E" is changing rapidly. When the earnings bottom, the trailing P/E is more likely to be high than low, by definition.
What matters is the future, not the past. The same is as true today when earnings are collapsing as it was during the bubble when some high fliers had 50% YoY growth.
But then, I have never been a fan of P/E ratios. I think they carry negative information at least half the time.
"So, who is left to capitulate? The new longs who bought in from 7500-8000? Warren Buffett? I think the fat lady may have already sung this time around.
PapaSloth
~~~~
More and more business will go BK with deflation sending more and more into unemployment.
rinse and repeat ...
As said here before:
"The beatings will continue until morale improves."
The priest in the booth had a photographic memory
For all he had heard
He took all of my sins and he wrote a pocket novel called
"The State I Am In"
So I gave myself to God
There was a pregnant pause before he said Ok
Now I spend my day turning tables round in Marks & Spencer's
They don't seem to mind
"Stocks were viewed in the 30s and 40s as yield vehicles, not growth instruments. I think we're going back there a little. People just haven't made the switch yet."
don't use the conventional wisdom of this board as a contrary indicator. we're all bearish cuz we're smart. ask people in the breakroom at work or at a starbucks and you'll hear, "this will turn around soon" and cnbc-ish things like that. this sucker is going down.
" Basel Too writes:
Keep in mind, that 401(k)'s are exempt property in a bankruptcy, so that there is some benefit for not liquidating.
Basel Too | 01.07.09 - 7:11 pm | # "
You don't need to pull the money out. You just put it in a bond fund, or a money market.
There are many people out there like that, and that doesn't even begin to touch all the knife-catchers who jumped in about 1/2 to 3/4 uip this rally, who will absolutely panic-sell the moment things get ugly again. Eric | 01.07.09 - 7:04 pm | #
Maybe so, maybe no. It depends on whether we go back down to 7500 and retest the lows or not. I watch a lot of Tech Ticker, and Henry and Aaron have been making this point since 7500, that we haven't capitulated yet because we haven't reached total apathy. Hasn't everyone heard that story by now, and hasn't everyone been scared out already?
There could very well be Earth-shaking disasters (such as the 60 trillion in CDSs lurking in the winds). On the other hand, the mere fact that so few of the posters on this board can even conceive of the possibility that the worst is over means, to me, that the worst may well be over.
CR has become mainstream enough at this point that the discussion boards are probably contra-indicators.
Some of my holiday conversations were truly depressing. A number of people confessed to taking stunning (50% to 75%) losses in their kids 529 accounts. These were accounts that they didn't foresee touching for another decade - so they had invested aggressively.
Very possible all that's really left are "buy and hold" longs who are hoping/praying to get back a piece of what they lost.
Nemo:
I was intrigued by Rich's theory from a few weeks ago that the FED is "holding the door open" for insurance companies and perhaps a few other institutions. As I understood it, Rich held that the FED was taking action -- using TARP as a conduit -- to prop up the market in order to let some of these firms unload unhedged positions that threatened their required capital levels.
What I didn't understand was who would be left holding the bag once the FED stopped holding the door open... but now that we have seen the follow-through rally based on, perhaps, short-covering and January-effect hopefuls, it looks like Rich's theory could be accurate without any downside to the FED and their conduit partners.
I bought back into the Nasdaq when my co-workers said "you're crazy to invest in the Nasdaq, it's never gonna recover". I didn't get the bottom but pretty close to it,off by maybe 10%.
I haven't heard the phrase "you are crazy to buy..." yet for either housing or stocks.
When I start hearing that, then I'll know it's the time to buy.
There are some truisms that seem to hold during every boom/bust cycle and the above appears to be one of them.
Broward upthread says it eloquently: This assumes the financial structure itself holds together. Essentially, the Feds are altering Reality to contain the Crash, tweaking the switch settings of the Universe so the necessary Physical Laws remain consistent enough to maintain Life.
All meaningful credit is flowing through the Feds. We do not know how this ends. Although everything feels normal, things have fundamentally changed. Our future will be nothing like the past.
"I haven't heard the phrase "you are crazy to buy..." yet for either housing or stocks.
When I start hearing that, then I'll know it's the time to buy.
There are some truisms that seem to hold during every boom/bust cycle and the above appears to be one of them.
Pissed Off In California | 01.07.09 - 7:15 pm | # "
dude, i preemptively(and unilaterally) struck your contrary indicator hypothesis. the masses are asses. don't let the sometimes overwhelmingly bearish consensus of this board scare you into going long!
What would frighten someone who held on from Dow 14K to Dow 9K to finally give up and sell?
Clear, long-term uptrend in long-term interest rates. Personally, I think there's enough evidence to judge now but few people look at the span over five or ten years.
The past seven years have been a lot of tweaking of optimum peak point and manipulation of long/short money to make it look different.
.
I hereby annoint you our new Sebastian (no offense intended, he was once our local spokesman for the die-hard bulls). ShortCourage | 01.07.09 - 7:12 pm | #
That would be fair if I were a bull
If you looked at my portfolio today, you'd see I'm long oil and gold, and that I've sold a whole bunch of out of the money calls on both the bull and bear side, which means I'm hedged against a big dollop of inflation but expecting that the market will pretty much continue to trade sideways for the next 6 months minimum. I'm planning on sitting back and collecting my theta for the next little while.
But, this board needs bulls, so I'd be happy to be one of the only ones to fill the quota
I am beginning to see some fear and anxiety in my peer group. A few (with >50% portfolio losses) are angry. No one is despondent.
Most still believe that we'll grow out of this mess. And not surprisingly, all are looking for the next big investment opportunity (bubble?) to recover from their losses.
"How many 401(k) holders are saying, "If it gets back above 10,000, I should probably sell half"?"
personally, if it hits that, i'll ratchet back from 50% long with the remainder cash back to 40% long, which is where i was at djia 8000. much as i'll put a little more fresh money in at spx
Mr. Beach- "Some of my holiday conversations were truly depressing. A number of people confessed to taking stunning (50% to 75%) losses in their kids 529 accounts."
When you buy a stock, you are buying a stream of future earnings. So some kind of PE ratio has to be relevant to stock prices, no? Certainly there are other factors, but PE has to be one of the important ones.
What is the best PE ratio? That is up for discussion, but I certainly wouldn't use forward earnings projections by analysts or companies. A ratio based on some kind of smoothed trailing earnings data is best.
But the point is that typical market crashes end with PE ratios below 10 and as low as 6. That's more of an indicator of capitulation.
"So, who is left to capitulate? The new longs who bought in from 7500-8000? Warren Buffett? I think the fat lady may have already sung this time around.
PapaSloth
Here's an excerpt of an email from a good friend on 10/6/08 ... he is an example of someone that still may capitulate ... maybe.
"Im just going to sit still with my investments which are all in the stock market. Its too late now for me. Since I dont plan on using them for 30 years, I imagine Ill be fine. If this is still going on in 30 years, we have bigger problems."
I didn't want to needle him - I had already told him he should bail ... so I just said,
"I'm sure you'll do what makes the most sense for you.
One counter point to consider and then I'll say no more. It may not be "too late" if you believe that stocks are going to drop another 25% (personally I do). Escalated commitment can get in the way of capital preservation. But overall, I think your point is taken ... 30 years is a long time."
With all due respect. Ha. Ha. Ha. Mr. Beach | 01.07.09 - 7:14 pm | #
With all due respect for your all due respect, have you read the board lately? There are still a handful of insightful commentors around here, Broward Horne, Eric, Nemo, mp, etc., but most of the rest of us our disaster junkies and dingbats one-step-up from the Yahoo message boards. I've seen times when we've had over 1000 visitors online, and they can't all be gems.
not always. you could be buying cash, mineral reserves, expectation of a buyout, anticipation of a trend (like sears when everyone had RE mania) etc.
what you are almost always buying is really more about fashion than anything else. maybe this wasn't true when people held for years at a time, but it is now, and also true with the broader market.
I had lunch with some CRE guys in MPLS
today.. I came away so depressed.. One of their friends had offed himself in Chicago yesterday. One of the guys a big player didn't come to lunch because he is to depressed to get out of bed. They are in a panic, I mean in a serious fricking panic, this will not end good. I went to Costco and bought food, tomorrow ammunition and Friday as much cash as the bank will give me...shit!
don't use the conventional wisdom of this board as a contrary indicator
CR has surprisingly broad influence, although I suspect the comments section is perhaps 1/10th of that.
I believe CR has peaked in influence but I can't prove it. People will only voluntarily deal with bad news for so long.
One of the interesting coincidences of most US crashes going back to the Civil war is the "double-dip" pattern.
True downturns are almost never more than 24 months long. In the previous depressions, there's almost always an up-break for several months between successive 24-month downturns.
I suspect it's psychological.
People can only handle bad news for perhaps 24 months at a time. GD follows that pattern, too, I believe there's a brief pop around 1932.
.
Can we just call it the Great Malaise and get it over with?
No capitulation, just a gneral boring sideways movement.
The whipsaws up and down allow everyone to think there is money to be made. When the trend is sideways, then those who have lost big will relaize it is not coming back anytime soon.
It's where we are going. Maybe by 2015 we'll snap out of it in the U.S.
PapaSloth: Sure there are more and more dingbats here. But you have to acknowledge that the readers & posters are a self-selecting group: those that are concerned enough about our macroeconomic stability to seek out more in-depth information.
Although it appears that we discuss the news, the discussions here are far, far, far from the mainstream.
E.g., very few people, know or care about the massive expansion of the Fed's balance sheet.
PapaSloth writes:
That would be fair if I were a bull
If you looked at my portfolio today, you'd see I'm long oil and gold, and that I've sold a whole bunch of out of the money calls on both the bull and bear side, which means I'm hedged against a big dollop of inflation but expecting that the market will pretty much continue to trade sideways for the next 6 months minimum. I'm planning on sitting back and collecting my theta for the next little while.
Well then we're not too much different...except that I won't make any bets on the long side until we have capitulation. LEAPS, cash and gold only. Give the LEAPS time to be correct, then sell for profits and wait in cash for the next bear-market rally.
I believe CR has peaked in influence but I can't prove it. People will only voluntarily deal with bad news for so long.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 7:27 pm |
i was able to rub elbows with some people from fox (the news corp fox) at a bar on new years eve. they had never heard of calculated risk. they were very nice people by the way.
Baca writes:
USBank is one of the better ones, but they do have some HELOCs on the books. Don't know about any CRE though, which would be the backbreaker.
The CRE guy that I said couldn't get out of bed because of depression was turned down by a 27 year old kid a US Bank for a refi loan.. They are not lending, that is the problem
I didn't realize the true depth of denial. Taht comment about the kid's 529 struck home.
I've ssen that same effect. People who intellecutally understood about the Crash were still emotionally disconnected.
Until the 529 statement came.
There's a layer of psychological denial that's wrapped around another layer of denial. The first layer exists so it can be ripped off, so the owner can proclaim, "Yes, I am seeing reality now", but carefully leaving the second layer of denial in place.
Those layers of denial are what create the dead-cat bounces.
I can see this clearer now in people's behavior and in my own.
.
Are you trying to compare today's economic environment with 2003? Quincy k | 01.07.09 - 7:31 pm | #
Not at all! This is the WORST DISASTER IN THE ENTIRE HISTORY OF THE UNIVERSE, EVAR, and it's even worse than when the gigantic asteroid crashed into the earth and killed all the dinosaurs, and we're all DOOMED DOOMED DOOMED, to be cast down into a lake of fire, and it will cost a TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION dollars to buy a single loaf of bread, but there won't be ANY BREAD to buy because all the bread factories will be shut down and everyone everywhere will be unemployed, 100% worldwide unemployment rate, except maybe for the chairman of the Fed who will be the only one in the whole world with a job.
that's well shy by at least a decade of median baby boomer death. also, japan is still falling from '91 peaks, and we are following that script quite faithfully, except for the part where our employment levels are crashing at an exponentially faster pace than theirs were at any point.
It's the American mantra, which happens to be true to a very large degree. People will continue to believe it as long as it's possible for your family of four to end up living in your car in a deserted parking lot.
The reality has to change before the perception does.
Is it possible they don't know how to read?
mp | 01.07.09 - 7:34 pm | #
i'm no genius but these two folks were extremely intelligent. very good critical thinkers...fun to argue with. they were definitely not what i was expecting.
A sign of the times, latest food fad in Britain is eating squirrel, NY Times article....RARE roast beef splashed with meaty jus, pork enrobed in luscious crackling fat, perhaps a juicy, plump chicken ... these are feasts that come to mind when one thinks of quintessential British food. Lately, however, a new meat is gracing the British table: squirrel.
1873, 1893, 1929. I haven't studied the 1960-1987 period. My assumption since about 1993 is that this depression would map closer to the post-Civil War period than 1929, using Cold war as a proxy for the Civil War.
.
When you buy a stock, you are buying a stream of future earnings.
Others will argue, but I actually agree.
So some kind of PE ratio has to be relevant to stock prices, no?
Not necessarily a ratio. If the earnings are highly volatile, then looking at just the last (or next) 12 months might tell you very little about the value of the company.
I am not saying "stocks are cheap". I am saying I do not know whether they are cheap or expensive. I think the answer is unknowable as long as the government is picking the winners and losers and the Fed is doing what it is doing.
This environment, combined with the collapse in earnings, makes me skeptical of any argument based on P/E.
I have a buddy who is short this market because he thinks the S&P earnings are headed to $60 and the P/E is headed to 10. I think he is nuts, partially because of the risk of government interference, but also because I see no reason to expect the P/E to bottom at the same time the earnings do.
" sneering nihilist writes:
.....
i'm no genius but these two folks were extremely intelligent. very good critical thinkers...fun to argue with. they were definitely not what i was expecting.
sneering nihilist | 01.07.09 - 7:38 pm | # "
That's because you've been listening to critiques on DailyKOS, or getting 2nd hand renditions of those critiques.
i'm no genius but these two folks were extremely intelligent. very good critical thinkers...fun to argue with. they were definitely not what i was expecting. sneering nihilist | 01.07.09 - 7:38 pm | #
Everyone I know is talking about how much the economy sucks and how we're doomed, doomed, doomed. I don't know where all these optimists you're meeting live, but people are pretty pessimistic here in Portland, OR.
i'm no genius but these two folks were extremely intelligent. very good critical thinkers...fun to argue with. they were definitely not what i was expecting.
sneering nihilist | 01.07.09 - 7:38 pm | #
Yeah, but 8/10 of them are probably still fully invested.
@PapaSloth
Everyone I know is talking about how much the economy sucks and how we're doomed, doomed, doomed. I don't know where all these optimists you're meeting live, but people are pretty pessimistic here in Portland, OR.
if c&c sees an s&p of 576 (not an unrealistic inference I might add), then how do we ever get to that point?
c&c is a consistent uber-bear. before we get to 576 we need to get rid of every single person who is less bearish and will buy before the s&p gets to that point.
not saying we don;t get that low, but if we do it's going to take a very long time to get there, or a truly epic crash event to get there quickly.
Yeah, but 8/10 of them are probably still fully invested. RhodesianGreenbackinAZ | 01.07.09 - 7:42 pm | #
A lot of them that had investments are totally broke at this point. They don't have any money left in the market because they don't have any money left, period. That means they will not be selling stocks in the immediate future.
"crispy&cole writes:
i'm no genius but these two folks were extremely intelligent. very good critical thinkers...fun to argue with. they were definitely not what i was expecting."
Excellent. One of the worst things you can do is assume that the people who disagree with you are fools.
comparing the worlds before and after the '73 devaluation is extremely tricky. and, of course, the cold war lasted ten times as long as the civil war.
as far as i can tell in the big, big picture, the massive influx of california gold and debt/speculation based around prairie farming in the 1860s leading to a massive deflationary hangover which was finally cured by the spanish-american war, klondike and overseas gold discoveries and a nice productivity boost in the 1890s were the big stories.
how do we normalize the currency story so these events are remotely relevant to our xerocratic current era? i know not. i do think the cultural resonances between here and the run-up to GD are significant.
The PE ratio just says how much you're willing to pay for a dollar of earnings. So that is very relevant, I think, if the earnings number is smoothed to be a useful predictor of future earnings.
This environment, combined with the collapse in earnings, makes me skeptical of any argument based on P/E
Yes there was (and is an ongoing) collapse in earnings. But before pronouncing the lower earnings a temporary anomaly, one should examine how earnings shot up abnormally high during the credit bubble.
I don't know where all these optimists you're meeting live, but people are pretty pessimistic here in Portland, OR.
It isn't that people I know are optimistic. They are cautious and nervous. Some are angry. Most are confused. They did not understand the credit bubble as it expanded. And do not understand clearly the consequences of its collapse.
It appears to me that until they (the herd) finds a clear new broadly agreed upon path to riches(another bubble), they will follow the old one: buy and hold.
"That's because you've been listening to critiques"
or because you're sentient and have noticed the effect of "conservative" deregulation of the financial markets in the past decade and thus assumed that only a hardcore misanthrope or complete idiot could be on board that particular trai
The carnage in UK retail is an excellent example of the market doing its job properly.
Marks and Spencer is an old retail dinosaur which caters mainly for the 50+, well heeled, conservative age group. Woolworths, which went belly up over Christmas, was equally dire with a tired business model that was creaking even during the boom times.
Dynamic, swift footed businesses are doing OK, picking up customers from the dying enterprises.
It's a great pity that you have the TARP. It will hold back the inevitable cleansig process by a couple of years at least, and probably do more harm than good.
monta's ankle writes if c&c sees an s&p of 576 (not an unrealistic inference I might add), then how do we ever get to that point?
Q: How did we get to the bubble peak?
A: Leverage.
So I think you can guess my answer to your question. Lots of deleveraging yet to come. Hedge funds, households and businesses. Maybe a few governments too.
same with individual careers. folks with genuine skills which correspond with actual niches and/or rock-bottom value players are surviving, though not necessarily prospering.
After a while, the thought: "I lost my money, I'm dead", will sound like nonsense.
Pavel Chichikov | 01.07.09 - 7:32 pm | #
Thinking about this today. FICO score and our net worth has become the standard of worth(self image) in this country. GD II will be worse due to this mind set. Mental illness will sky rocket in the next few months. Be very polite to everyone you come in contact with...
PapaSloth- I agree Portland is starting to show the cracks of a poor local economy. I've been in the hunt for a house for three years. Houses are now showing up as short sales with a good 20-30% drop in asking price with wiggle room. Realtors are using this as a marketing tool. Banks are taking a long time in making decisions, probably waiting to see what happens with the stimulus package.
"Era of dry rule? That was Prohibition, wasn't it?"
sorry, cute, obscure term, rule by xerox, i.e., the fiat supply-side era we currently inhabit.
but, speaking of prohibition, i guess that's the real silver lining. looks like we can end the war on drugs the easy way or hard way, just like the war on booze.
So, where are we now?
13 dec 2008 8: 05 pm | Filed under: TEOTWAWKI, bailout, bear markets, commodities, crash, deflation, depression, gold, housing, peak oil, short selling, social mood
When I started this blog in early August, I was living near the equator in a city overlooking the Pacific, having packed up and shipped out of New York just after Bear Stearns blew up. 18 weeks ago, the Dow was solidly over 11,000, the 30-year bond was 4.6%, gold was $900, oil was $120 and the latest CPI figures were showing double-digit annualized inflation. I was holding a huge array of LEAPS and ETFs that put me massively short equities (including mining and energy), net short gold, and long Treasuries.
I was then constantly emailing friends and family with my latest reasons to get out of stocks, miners included, and to buy into Treasury MMFs and index puts. For the previous nine months I had been endlessly explaining the logic of deflation and its implications, having been dissuaded of Schiff-esque conclusions by the likes of Mish and Prechter, and I wanted to go on the record more publicly with my calls. Besides bragging rights, I wanted the pressure to dig deeper and get the details right.
I called for a depression worse than the 1930s. I said that the Dow was on its way to below 3500 (under 9500 by Christmas, I suspected), that commodities would tank, that gold would fall well under $700, that there would be huge bailouts for the crooks who blew the bubble (though I never thought wed see anything like $9 trillion by the end of 08), that Obama would win and back a new New Deal and that the long bond would yield less than 3% anyway.
hey bgates i've been adding to my gold collection. you've talked about how maples look while they glisten in the sun and i agree that it is cool but they way a woman's face changes when one plops several ounces in her hand is waaaaay more cool.
I agree that the environment (government intervention, bailouts, picking winners and losers) makes it very scary to invest in anything, be it a bull or a bear investment.
But you gotta put your money somewhere, and for all we know cash could be picked as the loser.
I just look at all the interventions of the government so far, all geared to stop the deflation. How well, and for how long have any of their actions succeeded? How successful was Japan?
I'm with Mish on this one. Deleveraging will happen, and it will drop asset prices further, down to levels where they are supported by fundamentals.
That's what I'm betting my money on. But of course I stocked up on gold, just in case the government does succeed in reflating.
Plenty of my colleagues and acquaintances feel the market fell too fast, they were not able to get out in time, now the market stabilized/bottomed and they might as well ride it out. Still heavily invested in equities.
More happy talk from "Prof" Siegel. This guy annoys me as much as Ben Stein.
Forecast
"All of this means that, although the first quarter of 2009 will see negative growth, GDP should stabilize in the second quarter, earlier than most economists now anticipate. In real terms, housing prices have already retraced most of their gains from 2000, and by midyear prices should stabilize in this low-interest-rate environment. Year-over-year inflation should sink to zero, especially in the first half of 2009.
This year, as the economic slide abates and investors realize a catastrophe has been avoided, stock prices should enjoy a 20 percent or higher return. All equity sectors should recover."
" bgates writes:
"That's because you've been listening to critiques"
or because you're sentient and have noticed the effect of "conservative" deregulation of the financial markets in the past decade and thus assumed that only a hardcore misanthrope or complete idiot could be on board that particular train
bgates | 01.07.09 - 7:47 pm | # "
As I recall, Sneering Nihlist said:
"i'm no genius but these two folks were extremely intelligent. very good critical thinkers...fun to argue with. they were definitely not what i was expecting."
So evidently you're the idiot.
Many here have said that the college bubble is ready to burst. If it does, the children of today probably won't need a huge 529 account to afford it. Like it was back when my parents went to college.
FWIW, I would expect that stocks will go back to being judged based upon pre-90's criteria, i.e., mostly on dividends vs. appreciation. The focus on stock price movement for long-term investments is a relatively recent phenomenon sparked by the easy money of the Greenspan era.
perhaps, but i'm an idiot who was buying gold and protesting against the war when gwb's approval was 90%. yourself?
bgates | 01.07.09 - 7:59 pm | # "
I was not for the war, though I didn't protest. I have no interest in buying gold. My brother-in-law was left holding the bag with expensive gold after the bubble in the early '80s, or was it the late '70s.
Google cuts temporary workers but murky on details
Google cutting back on temporary workers, still plans to spend billions on R&D, acquisitions Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
right. i heard a lot of that when i was beating the drum in '02/'03 about commodities.
when you drive, do you tend to use the big piece of glass in front of you or the small shiny one in the middle at the top for the majority of your visual feedback needs?
"when you drive, do you tend to use the big piece of glass in front of you or the small shiny one in the middle at the top for the majority of your visual feedback needs?
bgates | 01.07.09 - 8:03 pm | # "
You should check out quantcast.com's ratings for CR, though. Small percentage of "fanatic readers" make up a lot of the traffic.
.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 7:45 pm
Gee, I hope I qualify as a "fanatic reader" without having to post comments more frequently than I do.
There are already too many comments to read unless CR becomes one's full time avocation.
"But, as the preceding text indicates, the list of foundational culprits must truly begin with the U.S. societal devotion to cheap energy, inefficient autos, outsized homes, sprawl, roads in lieu of public transit, and excessive materialism.
In other words, many of the things that make the U.S. economy environmentally unsustainable are what have also made the U.S. economy financially unsustainable."
Putin and Timoshenko agree in principle to EU inspectors as monitors of NG gas flow. It begins to look as if Ukraine is going to cave. The issue here has never been, fundamentally, what Ukraine pays Russia for NG. There is a much greater issue at stake.
PapaSloth writes:
Too late for me, I already capitulated on the long side a couple of months ago. I'm in the process of capitulating on the short side now.
PapaSloth | 01.07.09 - 7:03 pm | #
Waitin' on the SPX to nudge 940 (maybe 950'ish) are we? I figure we got one more good 'dump' that should bottom around 860 by mid-week. Then a 'rally' to 1040 before the big decline sets in...
Mr. Beach writes:
It appears to me that until they (the herd) finds a clear new broadly agreed upon path to riches(another bubble), they will follow the old one: buy and hold.
I think one reason people are leaving their $$ in stocks is the lack of anywhere else to put the $$ (sort of a microcosm of China's problem). Why keep the $$ in a CD worth 2% interest, they think. Can't buy real estate anymore, what else to do?
Not saying that I agree, but lack of places to stash $$ elsewhere is definitely an issue
And then some. Real and not just fictive Ukrainian independence is intolerable to the Russian state. This is not just a product of a lust for power on the part of Russia. It is an existential issue.
With all due respect for your all due respect, have you read the board lately? There are still a handful of insightful commentors around here, Broward Horne, Eric, Nemo, mp, etc., but most of the rest of us our disaster junkies and dingbats one-step-up from the Yahoo message boards.
PapaSloth | 01.07.09 - 7:25 pm | #
ha ha! You forgot about me!
Seriously back on topic: I had the great fortune to sell everything when the Dow was 14000 (house buy, not in cali, but in NC).
I keep telling everyone at the office I'll buy back in at Dow 7000. They laugh and say its only going up from here.
real and not just fictive Ukrainian independence is intolerable to the Russian state.
Nah - All Putin wants is Crimea and eastern Ukraine, which is populated mostly by ethnic Russians. I do not think he cares all that much about Kiev or western Ukraine.
They are not culturally Russian, and with the exception of Poland not even Slavic. They are all members of NATO. Many of the people in these states detest and fear Russia, for good historical reasons. Russia might cause them trouble, but they will exert themselves to the last ounce of strength to avoid knuckling under to Moscow.
A Russian person of influence told me in the late 80s that while Russia would have to give up the DDR, the Baltic states were 'ours.' But that was a different era, eh?
ol' Andrew Mellon had some bad perspectives based on his life of wealth, but for calling human reaction to bad economic/market times, his best known phrase comes very close to reality.
So far, we've had some tears on the sheets, but not near enough blood on the streets (total capitulation on the markets).
The ONLY worthwhile thing Bush ever said is 'this sucker is going down'.
We are nowhere near the bottom because their isn't enough truly productive economy left in the US to reignite growth. Ask oneself, just which major industry/sector has the prospect of rapid growth over the next 10 years? Will the US be a dominant player in that industry/sector?
Cash is king until a clear answer to those questions is in hand - unless cash itself becomes increasingly worthless.
"Nah - All Putin wants is Crimea and eastern Ukraine, which is populated mostly by ethnic Russians. I do not think he cares all that much about Kiev or western Ukraine."
I think he does, to the extent that he would want even a rump Ukrainian state as an obedient client. But in fact, at present, the following would be a much better political solution from the Russian point of view: A nominally independent Ukraine submissive to Russian wishes. Otherwise, there is serious risk of a clash with NATO and the US. A servile Ukrainian state is a much safer and much more achievable outcome from the Kremlin's point of view - IMHO.
Expectations are that a large midwestern state government will not make payroll in a couple of months and that cuts cannot solve the cash flow crisis. Will tax hikes be implemented? Payments to state venders are already 6-12 months delinquent.
Prairiedog: How big a deal is it that the German bonds didn't sell?
Wow. Failed bund auction.
I would say very big deal. I know between reading your question and responding I went, read the source article on the event and notified like 10 people it happened in case they hadn't already heard.
The import-all-retail-goods-middle-man-owned-economy is not sustainable. Try bringing back manufacturing to the US and don't anticipate a 1000% markup to make a profit after the CEOs take half.
8:20 p.m. Obama: plan to stop foreclosures 'in the next month or two'
~~~
And just how does he plan to do that ? mmckinl | 01.07.09 - 8:37 pm | #
That's exactly what I want to know. At some point, the person holding the mortgage is going to want to dispose of their property.
So, either you've got to define it as no longer theirs (which is a huge "taking", and something you can't just legislate away) or redefine it as theirs but they can't dispose of it, which means they're going to have to write it down, which means banks need more capital and....
aww fuck it.. where do I send the check?
(Note.... just did pay Q4 est tax... I hate having to actually write a check as opposed to witthholding... so much more painfaul)
If IOU's are taking in trade is that a second currency or not ? The dollar is nothing but a IOU just with backing of a crooked federal reserve note .....
An index of charge-offs on so-called prime credit card portfolios rose in December to its highest level in four years, while the rate at which cardholders repaid outstanding balances slowed to its lowest since mid-2004, Fitch said.
Fitch said its prime charge-off index in December grew to 6.84 percent, rising 31 percent higher than a year earlier. Fitch forecasts the rate will reach 8 percent this year as job losses spread.
Charge-offs by retailers for store-issued cards surged last month to a three-year high of 10.5 percent. Fitch said the latest figure is 49 percent higher than the retailer charge-off index in December 2007. Fitch expects the rate to surpass 12 percent by midyear.
snip
In December, an index that tracks repayment of outstanding card balances recorded its sharpest one-month drop on record, dropping to about 16 percent from more than 18 percent the previous month, Fitch said.
i really don't know if the UN/NATO would care if putin tried to take the whole thing. what's there? no real resources. the whole word "ukraine" just means "frontier" if i'm not mistaken - when has it had an identity of its own? and as for moldova, isn't that really more part of africa than europe on a statistical basis?
" (Note.... just did pay Q4 est tax... I hate having to actually write a check as opposed to witthholding... so much more painfaul)"
Well, given that the tax refund I'll be due from the good ol' People's Republic of the Golden Bear is likely to arrive as a useless IOU, I think I'd rather be making estimated payments. Looks like my best bet will be to direct that my refund be directed toward '09 state taxes and to bulk up my deductions and exemptions on my DE-4 so I have next to nothing withheld for the first part of the year. Good times.
mmckinl: If he ain't got the goods he should be quiet. Right now people don't want to hear about happy horseshit that will happen months from now.
Maybe he is just crazy and wants to wait until being sworn in before proposing legislation. Just inferring from the comments on the marketwatch (because of the randomness of the quotes) page it sounded like answers to questions he was asked.
In the interview, Obama also:âSaid he expects to unveil a plan in the "next month or two" to prevent foreclosures, which he called "the most important thing when it comes to declining home values."Jeesus Aitch Effing Christ........ yeah..... stop the foreclosures.... that'll put a bottom in.
By removing the ability of employees in my small business (14 employees) of Direct Deposit, I will cut the costs of my overhead, and it will force the employees to consume more gas, not to mention wear and tear on the car......
ova,
Your point regarding Russia is well taken. The mongols, Napoleon, Hitler all invaded Russia. A desire by Russians for some sort of buffer zone is understandable.
Why Intel is having problems amongst other things. DELL is going to have problems also. Their quality had dropped a lot, their support is poor. I buy a fair amount of computers for a living, and after 10 years of buying DELL I decided no more.
Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Lenovo Group Ltd., Chinas biggest personal-computer maker, will cut about 11 percent of its workforce amid a global recession that forced the company to forecast its first loss in 11 quarters.
Lenovo will eliminate about 2,500 jobs, leading to savings of about $300 million in the year ending March 2010, the Raleigh, North Carolina-based company said today. The computer maker said it will book a charge of about $150 million this fiscal year.
The manufacturer of Thinkpad laptops said it probably had a material loss for the quarter ended Dec. 31 because personal-computer demand fell. The latest reductions will top the more than 2,000 jobs it cut in 2006 and 2007 at the unit acquired from International Business Machines Corp. to turn around the previously unprofitable operations.
OT--This would have fit in better in the previous porno thread:
The state budget here in GA has gone from a 2 billion surplus to a 4 billion deficit in about 60 seconds. Local lawmakers are scrambling to find new sources of revenue. One of their bright ideas to raise money is, no joke, a tax on anyone who enters a strip club.
i had a cab driver in nyc 15 years ago who swore they still ran the country. this was in response to a remark about yeltsin's remarkably asiatic features...
Yeah, we'll see how strong their resolve is after the market is up 40% from the bottom and still climbing.
Yeah, we'll see how strong their resolve is after the market is up 40% from the bottom and still climbing. They wanted to sell the most at DJIA 7500 but couldn't, they'll want to buy more at DJIA 10K. People suck at market timing.
PapaSloth "
Yes people suck at market timing (human nature) and that is OK as long as they know not to listen to their impulses. I have learned a long time ago that when I feel like chasing a move I have missed the start of, it is about exactly at the moment when I feel the maximum itch to jump in that the reversal shows up. Can literally use it as an indicator. A miracle I am not schizophrenic, by now.
Rule # 1 for a trader: know yourself and disconnect from emotions... or as it has been said better by others got to know your limitations
However, the people you are talking about are not the ones moving market prices, unfortunately for them.
IMO, those who are moving the markets are going to pump this bear rally as high as they can, first with the January pop, next some correction and a new attempt to the upside, to say another 20% higher than present levels, and unless a miracle happens by the end of the second quarter they will bail. I would be amazed if this rally is still in place by May.
Traders have to make money (short term) = the key to market behavior. Simple. If they cannot sell the rally to enough "money flow" they will dump. Especially since they need the said money flow to unload into it ))
But what is also the typical BS: the first day of January, the end of the first week, and the end of the month indicate the end of the year? I cannot wait to hear that one! (if I remember correctly I do not have a Traders almanach
How could these countries sell their bonds when the Germans could not? Turkey?
Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The Philippines and Turkey sold $2.5 billion of bonds in international markets, joining a push by developing nations to take advantage of a decline in borrowing costs to finance budget deficits.
I would like to put a potential client in touch with you--do you have contact info anywhere on the net?
You can contact me at skagit_demo@hotmail.com. My friend would surely appreciate it--he's got a property in Palm Beach and will be in the area next week.
ADP charges a fee for this service (Direct Deposit) and as a processor for 1 in 6 companies in the US, this would have an impact on the bottom line.
additionally, an increasing gas tax would be beneficial to continue to squeeze the remaining drops of blood from the filthy consumer whose thirst for oil is unquenchable.
The Philippines sold $1.5 billion of 10-year notes to yield 8.5 percent, or 6 percentage points more than U.S. Treasuries, while Turkey sold $1 billion of eight-year bonds to yield 5.01 percentage points above Treasuries. The countries follow Brazil and Colombia, which each sold $1 billion of bonds this week.
One of their bright ideas to raise money is, no joke, a tax on anyone who enters a strip club. One Hot Chick | 01.07.09 - 9:04 pm | #
I will always consider sacrificing my principles in the interest of the community. Obviously that would be the only reason for visiting... You should find me there tonight...
There is a good talk by Bill Bradley on iTunes about Russia (free on UChannel). Bradley mentions how Gorbachev was led to believe that in exchange for the USSR "allowing" the DDR re-unite with West Germany, there would be NO expansion by NATO east of its borders in 1988. Russia got increasingly paranoid and mad when NATO moved into East Germany, then Poland, Czech Republic, etc all the way to Russian borders.
How could these countries sell their bonds when the Germans could not? Turkey? nova | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 9:07 pm | #
It is not that they couldn't sell any. The Bundesbank retained 32 percent of the offering.
German Bond Auction Fails to Attract Enough Demand The last time the Bundesbank retained a larger share at an auction was on July 2, when it held 2.384 billion euros, or 34 percent, of a planned 7 billion-euro sale. It is a matter of the interest rate.
âI don't think this is the beginning of a big negative trend," Garvey said. âInvestors are starting question whether German yields are too rich. Germany is going to have a give a greater premium for investors to take down some of this paper."
(As an aside, dinner was 10 oz of perfect fillet mignon, seared over an open flame on the outside, cold and the texture of raw tuna on the inside. You people and your steakhouse yammerings.)
So if the Germans can't move paper at 3.75 - The US is going to offer at 2.94? Is it worth it?
I would think German bonds are as long term stable as US? And the German ones are considered not paying enough? How much does the Treasury need to finance? And is this enough ? marks in one post?
Who bails first? Im going with Greece, with a strong showing in Spain. recovery_story | 01.07.09 - 9:12 pm | #
And how would they achieve that?. Go back to the drachma? Would be an interesting logistical exercise and even more interesting for Greek bond rates. Do you realistically think that Greece would have a prayer at getting rates at 218 basis points over Bunds?
OT... but since someone brought up the Drudge lead on China and debt, I guess it's not quite so bad. The Treasury published its December monthly statement of the public debt. Here are three charts that I've been maintaining after Nemo suggested them a couple months back.
On a bad note, Treasury will have to roll $1.866T between now and December 17th, 2009. On the plus side, that's actually a decrease from the peak level of just over $2T of net issuance reached on 11/20.
"Bradley mentions how Gorbachev was led to believe that in exchange for the USSR "allowing" the DDR re-unite with West Germany, there would be NO expansion by NATO east of its borders in 1988."
That's what I heard at the time from someone who had some higher-level access, except that it wasn't just in 1988 that the West was supposed to refrain from expanding. Supposedly it was one of Gorbachev's top advisers who explained the supposed understanding.
"Its an increasingly common scene in once-hot real estate markets from Eugene to Portland to Bend. Construction liens have doubled in Multnomah County and tripled in Washington County, and while other major metro counties throughout Oregon do not track those pleas for payment specifically, the anecdotal evidence suggests that the love affair between banks, developers, builders, suppliers and subcontractors is officially over."
My Dad says that if January is up (which doesn't look likely), then we're beginning to see the end of this. If it's down, then holy $#!+
xxxxx | 01.07.09 - 6:36 pm | #
If he wants to understand what's going on he should be watching the game instead of the scoreboard.
Therefore the fastest recovery, obviously
Sharp and short? What does that resemble? Hmm...
and confirmed more than 1,200 staff were to be axed
Oh my God! Is that even legal?
Seriously, is anyone surprised that retail is bad?
Rather than begging the government to do the impossible, return everything to the way it used to be, wouldn't it make more sense for companies to start planning and organizing themselves for the new dispensation?
Retailer's want sales tax exempt "holidays". That'll work wonders for states' budgets.
This is one of the leading stories on Drudge:
China may balk at buying more US debt... Developing...
From the article:
The government has got to make sure it keeps sending the same message out that things are going to get better
I say, old boy, keep a stiff upper lip. Pip pip and all that.
Bloody hell, the commoners need to get their act together, or we'll have to call off the polo season soon.
Bad retail sales on both sides of the pond, my guess is just as bad on the other side of the Pacific as well
October-December is starting to show...
" Nemo writes:
and confirmed more than 1,200 staff were to be axed
Oh my God! Is that even legal?
Nemo | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 6:16 pm | # "
Wait until Chrysler closes...
This is one of the leading stories on Drudge:
China may balk at buying more US debt... Developing...
$
Waterford/wedgewood filed bk. Prolly old news.
Don't the Brits know that Christmas was moved to Jan 20 this year?
OT- Is there a way to make the text bigger in HaloScan?
Some celebrate Jan 6, feast of Wise Men, for Christmas.
Now, really g'nite.
Marks & Spencer chief Sir Stuart Rose today called on the government to do all it could to restore consumer confidence...
If the confidence comes from the government and not the individuals and businesses that actually make up the economy, then this confidence is nothing more than a temporary illusion.
These kind of illusions of wealth and false confidence are at the root of all the problems we currently have.
The NY times attributes today's sell off to "foreshadowed a bleak season for fourth-quarter earnings, sparking a sell-off."
Wasn't this being predicted by just about every one six weeks back? Just what are those people thinking that continue to go long in this environment? I really do not understand.
x^5,
hold Ctrl and pres the + key to enlarge in Mozilla Firefox; or Ctrl and sroll foreward
ctrl+ make text larger on a PC
Just an anniversary reminder:
The No Child Left Behind Act, introduced as HR 1 during the 107th Congress, was passed in the House of Representatives on May 23, 2001, United States Senate on June 14, 2001 and signed into law on January 8, 2002.
No Child Left Behind Act - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Ya'll got my post from early am...right?
"Porn Kings to D.C. - Help Us Through Hard Times"
These guys are gonna make a mess on the TARP.
"Joe Francis and Larry Flynt claim the economy has made America's sexual appetite go limp, so they're going to the one place where sex is always rampant -- Congress.
Flynt (the "Hustler" guy) and Francis (the "Girls Gone Wild" dude) are asking the government for a $5 billion bailout,"
Celebrity Gossip | Entertainment News | Celebrity News | TMZ.com
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 9:33 am |
They bailouters are drooling now. Hey Rob Dawg....we gots our moral hazard writ large now.
Nostrovia,
OT- Is there a way to make the text bigger in HaloScan?
xxxxx | 01.07.09 - 6:28 pm | #
Ctrl +
How To Be Happy
YouTube - How To Be Happy
Wasn't this being predicted by just about every one six weeks back? Just what are those people thinking that continue to go long in this environment? I really do not understand.
syvanen | 01.07.09 - 6:30 pm | #
It's really not that complicated. Bulls think that everyone who was going to sell has already sold. When there are no sellers left, you want to be a buyer before everyone else jumps in.
You're confused because you think that "bad economy means everyone should sell and good economy means everyone should buy."
" Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
x^5,
hold Ctrl and pres the + key to enlarge in Mozilla Firefox; ...
Uffish Thought writes:
ctrl+ make text larger on a PC"
Thanks- My porn addiction is apparently making me blind
Retailer's want sales tax exempt "holidays". That'll work wonders for states' budgets.
dr munch | 01.07.09 - 6:22 pm | #
Since they are in England... we can cross that particular worry off our list, along with US govt. bailout. I still have plenty of other worries though, so don't panic.
If they need a government bailout after a 7.1% decline in holiday sales, what will they need when sales really starting getting bad?
Larry Flynt was JOKING....if you read what he said, it has to be sarcasm.
How big a deal is it that the German bonds didn't sell? I know people say that we will simply buy our own bonds, but couldn't Germany buy their own bonds too? Does Germany sell their bonds in dollars? Help me understand this please.
Macs are better!
Yippie,
That was actually pretty good and helpful. Nothing complicated. Thanks.
"It's really not that complicated. Bulls think that everyone who was going to sell has already sold. When there are no sellers left, you want to be a buyer before everyone else jumps in.
You're confused because you think that "bad economy means everyone should sell and good economy means everyone should buy."
PapaSloth"
Makes sense. I have been duped by those nutty news articles that attribute every blip in the Dow to some real economic factor.
Retailer's want sales tax exempt "holidays". That'll work wonders for states' budgets.
The retailers' proposal called for the Federal government to reimburse the states for the lost sales tax revenues.
" PapaSloth writes:
.....
It's really not that complicated. Bulls think that everyone who was going to sell has already sold. When there are no sellers left, you want to be a buyer before everyone else jumps in.
You're confused because you think that "bad economy means everyone should sell and good economy means everyone should buy."
PapaSloth | 01.07.09 - 6:33 pm | # "
My Dad says that if January is up (which doesn't look likely), then we're beginning to see the end of this. If it's down, then holy $#!+
Retailer's want sales tax exempt "holidays". That'll work wonders for states' budgets.
dr munch | 01.07.09 - 6:22 pm | #
It's a wash if no one is buying anything anyway. Actually, not quite, if it keeps employees from being axed.
Buy PST or TBT, treasury bubble will not last long.
"Thanks- My porn addiction is apparently making me blind"
xxxxx | 01.07.09 - 6:33 pm | #
Hair on the palms???
Harry
Thanks- My porn addiction is apparently making me blind
xxxxx | 01.07.09 - 6:33 pm | #
You're supposed to stop at the point you need glasses....
I love this:
Foreign Policy: Warning: More Doom Ahead
Roubini is quoting himself as a reference.
prariedog --
I know people say that we will simply buy our own bonds, but couldn't Germany buy their own bonds too?
When people say "we will simply buy our own bonds", they mean the Federal Reserve will create money to buy the U.S. Treasury's bonds.
The ECB may be dominated by Germans, but not to the extent that they would create Euros to buy German debt.
prairiedog,
"Larry Flynt was JOKING....if you read what he said, it has to be sarcasm."
It's all over news radio here.
Reminds me of ol' KOME in San Jose...early '80's.
"Don't touch that dial there's Kum on it."
FCC k'boshed that not long later...oh well.
Nostrovia,
My Dad says that if January is up (which doesn't look likely), then we're beginning to see the end of this.
Which is why January will be up; the smart money needs the dumb money like your Dad's to jump back in one more time.
""Thanks- My porn addiction is apparently making me blind"
xxxxx | 01.07.09 - 6:33 pm | #
Hair on the palms???
Harry"
Now I know why my wife calls me Yetti.
And to that comment about stopping before you need glasses. That would mean that I would have had to stop before puberty. I shudder at that nightmarish scenario.
How To Undo Her Bra With One Hand
YouTube - How To Undo Her Bra With One Hand
Makes sense. I have been duped by those nutty news articles that attribute every blip in the Dow to some real economic factor.
syvanen | 01.07.09 - 6:36 pm | #
Heh, it's like poker. A poor player just looks at his own cards and gets excited when he has a good hand. A fair player gets excited when he thinks his hand is better than yours. A good player gets excited when he thinks you think you have a better hand than him, but he has a better hand than you do. A great player gets excited when he thinks you think he thinks you think he has a better hand than you, but etc.
When bad news comes out and the market doesn't move, or moves up, some people think that means that everyone who was going to sell has already sold, and therefore, the bad news is actually bullish for the market. So, bad news with good market action is, itself, actually bullish news.
" Pissed Off In California writes:
""Thanks- My porn addiction is apparently making me blind"
xxxxx | 01.07.09 - 6:33 pm | #
Hair on the palms???
Harry"
Now I know why my wife calls me Yetti.
And to that comment about stopping before you need glasses. That would mean that I would have had to stop before puberty. I shudder at that nightmarish scenario.
Pissed Off In California | 01.07.09 - 6:40 pm | # "
Don't worry; 98% of men do it, and the other 2% are lying.
Equity prices and sales down 50% everywhere else, and NRA reports they're at .97 from 1.00 15 months ago? They should invite the NAR over to celebrate their winning numbers.
happy and homeless people
since they now live in the park, hopefully it doesnt rain
You Walk Away - Foreclosure Protection Plan and Kit, Mortgage Loan Modification, Foreclosure Assistance, Debt Consolidation, Credit Repair from Foreclosures
OT- Roubini says:
" This scenario is dangerous for many reasons. A number of central banks will be close enough to setting interest rates of zero that their economies fall into a triple whammy: a liquidity trap, a deflation trap, and debt deflation. In a liquidity trap, the banks lose their ability to stimulate the economy because they cannot set nominal interest rates below zero. In a deflation trap, falling prices mean that real interest rates are relatively high, choking off consumption and investment. This leads to a vicious circle wherein incomes and jobs are falling, with demand dropping still further. Finally, in debt deflation, the real value of nominal debts rises as prices fallbad news for countries such as the United States and Japan that have high ratios of debt to GDP.
As orthodox monetary tools become ineffective, policymakers will turn to unorthodox approaches. Well see traditional fiscal policy, in the form of tax cuts and spending increases, but also worldwide bailouts of lenders, investors, and financial institutions, as well as borrowers. Central banks will inject massive amounts of cash into financial systems to unclog the liquidity crunch. More radical actions, such as outright purchases of corporate and government bonds or subsidization of mortgage rates, might also be necessary to get credit markets functioning properly again. "
I'm worried because I think we may already be there.
So, bad news with good market action is, itself, actually bullish news.
PapaSloth | 01.07.09 - 6:42 pm | #
I'm getting dizzy....
I'm worried because I think we may already be there.
The odds are good. I don't see how the dollar and current debt structure can survive.
.
PapaSloth,
You're making it way too complicated. It works like this in today's brave new world:
Whether economic news is good or bad does not matter.
The authorities announce an upcoming bailout/stimulus, and markets move upward....
...until the bailout is implemented, and economic news is bad....then market tanks...
...until the next bailout is announced.
The German bond sale failure is a big deal. After Treasuries, I would have figured that Deutschland credits would be next in line as far as sovereign ratings go. Why wouldn't the Chinese chip in here?
xxxxx - bring on the pain! Everyone here who is awake is ready...screw everyone else
Downgrades Outpacing TARP Funding: Analyst
Downgrades Outpacing TARP Funding: Analyst : HousingWire || financial news for the mortgage market
Meredith Whitney has rightfully made a name for herself throughout the current credit crisis mostly by being right in her calls and her latest call in a research note late Monday is a doozy. The prominent Oppenheimer & Co. analyst suggested that the pace and effect of securities downgrades in the fourth quarter alone will be enough to eat through the roughly $300 billion in funding provided to banks via the U.S. Treasury through its Troubled Asset Relief Program and associated capital purchase program.
Of course, these bailout/stimulus driven rallies will continue intermittently until we get true capitulation and nobody wants to own stocks period.
" Comrade Terry writes:
So, bad news with good market action is, itself, actually bullish news.
PapaSloth | 01.07.09 - 6:42 pm | #
I'm getting dizzy....
Comrade Terry | 01.07.09 - 6:45 pm | # "
IIRC, we saw this in the early '90's. The market is a leading indicator; when it sees bad news, it means that the correction is taking place, and you need to get back in before prices start rising.
Big losses mean writing off bad debt.
Layoffs mean "freeing up" of poorly allocated resources.
Yada, yada, yada
Or maybe not
Not for nothing are they known as "Marks Expensive". But I can recommend their 99p pork pie: delish.
" crispy&cole writes:
xxxxx - bring on the pain! Everyone here who is awake is ready...screw everyone else
crispy&cole | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 6:49 pm | # "
There was too much happy banter about porn, steaks and such in the last thread.
Aren't these worldwide bailouts the pièce de résistance of the credit world? Anybody in doubt as to how aggressive, how leveraged, how wreckless and how dishonest to be in the next business cycle?
the last bubble is the dollar and it's flip side, treasuries.
how many people with negative net worth and no savings will care if the dollar drops by 75%?
none.
debtors love devaluation, they just don't know it yet.
Basel- I didn't know the feds would reimburse the states in a tax holiday. Therefore, no downside.
Big losses mean writing off bad debt.
Layoffs mean "freeing up" of poorly allocated resources.
Yada, yada, yada
Or maybe not
xxxxx | 01.07.09 - 6:50 pm | #
Most people are wrong about the direction the market will take. Most people think the economy sucks and that the market will go down, that we'll retest our 7500 DJIA lows, at least, and that the stimulus plan is a big waste of money and can't possibly work. Therefore, the market has already put in a bottom, the economy will recover, and the stimulus plan will work.
I mean, Obama himself has been going on TV and telling everyone the economy is a total trainwreck and that we're going to be running multi-trillion dollar deficits. Is there maybe someone living on a little island in the middle of the South seas who doesn't know the economy sucks at this point? I think you'd have to look around to find anyone with skin in the game on the long side who hasn't already been completely toasted. So, who is left to capitulate? The new longs who bought in from 7500-8000? Warren Buffett? I think the fat lady may have already sung this time around.
OT- Here's a fun piece:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/15-reminders-Wall-Streets-con/story.aspx?guid={1983C24D-6988-4645-A2F0-9422397777F7}
"So, who is left to capitulate? The new longs who bought in from 7500-8000? Warren Buffett? I think the fat lady may have already sung this time around.
PapaSloth | 01.07.09 - 6:56 pm | # "
Hope so-
What Bill Gross Is Buying
What Bill Gross Is Buying - Forbes.com
A bit of a lag between the interview date and the article's publication, obviously, but still interesting.
Don't know what Whitney is worried about. As Bill Gross says, "in for a nickel, in for a dime."
image zoom for firefox is very useful for enlarging charts, etc.
here's the link
https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/139
, who is left to capitulate? The new longs who bought in from 7500-8000? Warren Buffett? I think the fat lady may have already sung this time around.
PapaSloth | 01.07.09 - 6:56 pm |
You sound like a candidate...
PapaSloth,
Here's a couple of reasons that the market can go down. Credit crisis is only 50% through. Massive amount of hedge fund redemptions have been gated.
I also know tons of people who are talking about dumping everything in their 401k if the market makes a good run close to 10k.
Or maybe not
xxxxx | 01.07.09 - 6:50 pm | #
That's the tricky part!
Here's a couple of reasons that the market can go down. Credit crisis is only 50% through. Massive amount of hedge fund redemptions have been gated.
I also know tons of people who are talking about dumping everything in their 401k if the market makes a good run close to 10k.
Pissed Off In California | 01.07.09 - 6:59 pm | #
Yeah, we'll see how strong their resolve is after the market is up 40% from the bottom and still climbing. They wanted to sell the most at DJIA 7500 but couldn't, they'll want to buy more at DJIA 10K. People suck at market timing.
until we get true capitulation and nobody wants to own stocks period
This assumes the financial structure itself holds together. Essentially, the Feds are altering Reality to contain the Crash, tweaking the switch settings of the Universe so the necessary Physical Laws remain consistent enough to maintain Life.
Comrade Misean is Dope:
"Reminds me of ol' KOME in San Jose...early '80's."
Thanks for the way-back moment.
More memories here:
KOME - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
That was a long time ago. I'm getting old, evidently...
PapaSloth --
What about the flip side? All of the shorts who got it right and rode the whole thing down from 12000 or 13000 or 14000... Do you really think they are still short?
What lunatic would not take profits after a 40% market crash?
Very possible all that's really left are "buy and hold" longs who are hoping/praying to get back a piece of what they lost.
How many 401(k) holders are saying, "If it gets back above 10,000, I should probably sell half"?
You sound like a candidate...
crispy&cole | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 6:59 pm | #
Too late for me, I already capitulated on the long side a couple of months ago. I'm in the process of capitulating on the short side now.
Papa Sloth,
So you think a trailing PE of 16 was the point of capitulation? Most of the folks I know did not sell their stocks during the recent crash, but held on to the belief that stock prices would recover. You don't panic and sell at the bottom.
That's probably smart thinking, but it's not the thinking that you see at the point of capitulation.
What we saw in the recent crash was just the first wave of deleveraging.
IMHO, of course...
So, who is left to capitulate? The new longs who bought in from 7500-8000? Warren Buffett? I think the fat lady may have already sung this time around.
PapaSloth | 01.07.09 - 6:56 pm | #
There's a ton of people who didn't capitulate the last time around.
Last time I discussed markets with someone I didn't know well (i.e. someone who didn't know I was a bear), he was telling me "oh, I'm still 35, and have 30 years to go. I just drop the 401k statements in a drawer without opening them".
There are many people out there like that, and that doesn't even begin to touch all the knife-catchers who jumped in about 1/2 to 3/4 uip this rally, who will absolutely panic-sell the moment things get ugly again.
Very possible all that's really left are "buy and hold" longs who are hoping/praying to get back a piece of what they lost.
Nemo | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 7:03 pm | #
I was one of those guys who lost his ass during the tech bubble last decade, and pretty much stayed out of the market over the next five or six years, so I know what you mean. But meanwhile, it seems like everyone else forgot and bid the Dow up to 14K in my absence. People have really short memories (and attention spans).
I'm using Bob Doll at blackrock as my advisor. He said buy in Jan 08 and I sold. Now Bob says buy again and I'm selling short. Bob's been a great advisor.
So, who is left to capitulate? The new longs who bought in from 7500-8000? Warren Buffett? I think the fat lady may have already sung this time around.
Many folks that I know liquidated only small amounts of their portfolio during the past 3 months. Quite a few bought stocks during October with whatever spare cash they had.
These acquaintances are pissed at having sustained losses of between 20% and 50% in their investment accounts. But they have not capitulated. Yet.
During my holiday conversations, their attitude is summarized as: "Why sell now, stock have already fallen a lot."
I did not have the heart to ask them under what conditions they would capitulate.
What do you guys think? What would frighten someone who held on from Dow 14K to Dow 9K to finally give up and sell?
ShortCourage --
So you think a trailing PE of 16 was the point of capitulation?
Just to play both sides...
P/E ratios are useless when the "E" is changing rapidly. When the earnings bottom, the trailing P/E is more likely to be high than low, by definition.
What matters is the future, not the past. The same is as true today when earnings are collapsing as it was during the bubble when some high fliers had 50% YoY growth.
But then, I have never been a fan of P/E ratios. I think they carry negative information at least half the time.
Mr. Beach --
What would frighten someone who held on from Dow 14K to Dow 9K to finally give up and sell?
Seeing it go to 11 and then back to 10.
Keep in mind, that 401(k)'s are exempt property in a bankruptcy, so that there is some benefit for not liquidating.
"So, who is left to capitulate? The new longs who bought in from 7500-8000? Warren Buffett? I think the fat lady may have already sung this time around.
PapaSloth
~~~~
More and more business will go BK with deflation sending more and more into unemployment.
rinse and repeat ...
As said here before:
"The beatings will continue until morale improves."
Seeing it go to 11 and then back to 10.
\t Nemo
Nemo | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 7:10 pm | #
Or seeing it go from 7500 to 9000 and back to 7500.
Thread music:
The priest in the booth had a photographic memory
For all he had heard
He took all of my sins and he wrote a pocket novel called
"The State I Am In"
So I gave myself to God
There was a pregnant pause before he said Ok
Now I spend my day turning tables round in Marks & Spencer's
They don't seem to mind
YouTube - Belle & Sebastian - The State I Am In (Videoclip)
PapaSloth, another thing with your theory that all the sellers have already sold...
You might give some thought to those folks who WANTED to sell during the crash, but could not because of redemption clauses at hedge funds.
You might get a brand new supply of sellers who need their money out of stocks to pay rent and buy groceries (with the growing job losses).
I hereby annoint you our new Sebastian (no offense intended, he was once our local spokesman for the die-hard bulls).
Bill Gross, from bond girl's link:
"Stocks were viewed in the 30s and 40s as yield vehicles, not growth instruments. I think we're going back there a little. People just haven't made the switch yet."
re: capitulation
don't use the conventional wisdom of this board as a contrary indicator. we're all bearish cuz we're smart. ask people in the breakroom at work or at a starbucks and you'll hear, "this will turn around soon" and cnbc-ish things like that. this sucker is going down.
Keep in mind, that 401(k)'s are exempt property in a bankruptcy, so that there is some benefit for not liquidating.
Basel Too | 01.07.09 - 7:11 pm | #
That makes no difference. You can sell out your equity portfolio, and keep the proceeds in a money market fund.
" Basel Too writes:
Keep in mind, that 401(k)'s are exempt property in a bankruptcy, so that there is some benefit for not liquidating.
Basel Too | 01.07.09 - 7:11 pm | # "
You don't need to pull the money out. You just put it in a bond fund, or a money market.
There are many people out there like that, and that doesn't even begin to touch all the knife-catchers who jumped in about 1/2 to 3/4 uip this rally, who will absolutely panic-sell the moment things get ugly again.
Eric | 01.07.09 - 7:04 pm | #
Maybe so, maybe no. It depends on whether we go back down to 7500 and retest the lows or not. I watch a lot of Tech Ticker, and Henry and Aaron have been making this point since 7500, that we haven't capitulated yet because we haven't reached total apathy. Hasn't everyone heard that story by now, and hasn't everyone been scared out already?
There could very well be Earth-shaking disasters (such as the 60 trillion in CDSs lurking in the winds). On the other hand, the mere fact that so few of the posters on this board can even conceive of the possibility that the worst is over means, to me, that the worst may well be over.
CR has become mainstream enough at this point that the discussion boards are probably contra-indicators.
Some of my holiday conversations were truly depressing. A number of people confessed to taking stunning (50% to 75%) losses in their kids 529 accounts. These were accounts that they didn't foresee touching for another decade - so they had invested aggressively.
Very possible all that's really left are "buy and hold" longs who are hoping/praying to get back a piece of what they lost.
Nemo:
I was intrigued by Rich's theory from a few weeks ago that the FED is "holding the door open" for insurance companies and perhaps a few other institutions. As I understood it, Rich held that the FED was taking action -- using TARP as a conduit -- to prop up the market in order to let some of these firms unload unhedged positions that threatened their required capital levels.
What I didn't understand was who would be left holding the bag once the FED stopped holding the door open... but now that we have seen the follow-through rally based on, perhaps, short-covering and January-effect hopefuls, it looks like Rich's theory could be accurate without any downside to the FED and their conduit partners.
Just a thought.
Rose says he "does not intend to take a pay rise this year". What a truly generous guy!
CR has become mainstream enough at this point that the discussion boards are probably contra-indicators.
With all due respect. Ha. Ha. Ha.
I bought back into the Nasdaq when my co-workers said "you're crazy to invest in the Nasdaq, it's never gonna recover". I didn't get the bottom but pretty close to it,off by maybe 10%.
I haven't heard the phrase "you are crazy to buy..." yet for either housing or stocks.
When I start hearing that, then I'll know it's the time to buy.
There are some truisms that seem to hold during every boom/bust cycle and the above appears to be one of them.
I suspect we will have quite a few unemployed workers liquidating their 401-k.
Heh. Remarkable timing. This just hit my inbox:
Setting the Bull Trap
@PapaSloth:
Broward upthread says it eloquently: This assumes the financial structure itself holds together. Essentially, the Feds are altering Reality to contain the Crash, tweaking the switch settings of the Universe so the necessary Physical Laws remain consistent enough to maintain Life.
All meaningful credit is flowing through the Feds. We do not know how this ends. Although everything feels normal, things have fundamentally changed. Our future will be nothing like the past.
There are some truisms that seem to hold during every boom/bust cycle and the above appears to be one of them.
Pissed Off In California
~~~~
Just remember one thing, noone alive today has seen anything like what we'll be seeing shortly ...
The old rules only go back as far as experience. Remember : Buy and Hold ...
"I haven't heard the phrase "you are crazy to buy..." yet for either housing or stocks.
When I start hearing that, then I'll know it's the time to buy.
There are some truisms that seem to hold during every boom/bust cycle and the above appears to be one of them.
Pissed Off In California | 01.07.09 - 7:15 pm | # "
You'd be crazy to buy stocks or a house!!!!
dude, i preemptively(and unilaterally) struck your contrary indicator hypothesis. the masses are asses. don't let the sometimes overwhelmingly bearish consensus of this board scare you into going long!
What would frighten someone who held on from Dow 14K to Dow 9K to finally give up and sell?
Clear, long-term uptrend in long-term interest rates. Personally, I think there's enough evidence to judge now but few people look at the span over five or ten years.
The past seven years have been a lot of tweaking of optimum peak point and manipulation of long/short money to make it look different.
.
I hereby annoint you our new Sebastian (no offense intended, he was once our local spokesman for the die-hard bulls).
ShortCourage | 01.07.09 - 7:12 pm | #
That would be fair if I were a bull
If you looked at my portfolio today, you'd see I'm long oil and gold, and that I've sold a whole bunch of out of the money calls on both the bull and bear side, which means I'm hedged against a big dollop of inflation but expecting that the market will pretty much continue to trade sideways for the next 6 months minimum. I'm planning on sitting back and collecting my theta for the next little while.
But, this board needs bulls, so I'd be happy to be one of the only ones to fill the quota
I am beginning to see some fear and anxiety in my peer group. A few (with >50% portfolio losses) are angry. No one is despondent.
Most still believe that we'll grow out of this mess. And not surprisingly, all are looking for the next big investment opportunity (bubble?) to recover from their losses.
[mildly OT]
My own 401(k) offers PTTRX, managed by none other than William Gross.
I figure if you can't beat 'em...
"How many 401(k) holders are saying, "If it gets back above 10,000, I should probably sell half"?"
personally, if it hits that, i'll ratchet back from 50% long with the remainder cash back to 40% long, which is where i was at djia 8000. much as i'll put a little more fresh money in at spx
What would frighten someone who held on from Dow 14K to Dow 9K to finally give up and sell?
~~~~
The Dow at 6k and they are losing their job.
Mr. Beach- "Some of my holiday conversations were truly depressing. A number of people confessed to taking stunning (50% to 75%) losses in their kids 529 accounts."
They can explain it to their children.
Someday.
Nemo,
When you buy a stock, you are buying a stream of future earnings. So some kind of PE ratio has to be relevant to stock prices, no? Certainly there are other factors, but PE has to be one of the important ones.
What is the best PE ratio? That is up for discussion, but I certainly wouldn't use forward earnings projections by analysts or companies. A ratio based on some kind of smoothed trailing earnings data is best.
But the point is that typical market crashes end with PE ratios below 10 and as low as 6. That's more of an indicator of capitulation.
Blackrock advisor?
What would frighten someone who held on from Dow 14K to Dow 9K to finally give up and sell?
~~~~
mmckinl- The Dow at 6k and they are losing their job.
Now, that is capitulation. It is what I expect to see.
Nothing less.
"So, who is left to capitulate? The new longs who bought in from 7500-8000? Warren Buffett? I think the fat lady may have already sung this time around.
PapaSloth
Here's an excerpt of an email from a good friend on 10/6/08 ... he is an example of someone that still may capitulate ... maybe.
"Im just going to sit still with my investments which are all in the stock market. Its too late now for me. Since I dont plan on using them for 30 years, I imagine Ill be fine. If this is still going on in 30 years, we have bigger problems."
I didn't want to needle him - I had already told him he should bail ... so I just said,
"I'm sure you'll do what makes the most sense for you.
One counter point to consider and then I'll say no more. It may not be "too late" if you believe that stocks are going to drop another 25% (personally I do). Escalated commitment can get in the way of capital preservation. But overall, I think your point is taken ... 30 years is a long time."
bring on the pain! Everyone here who is awake is ready...screw everyone else
I fear this is incorrect.
With all due respect. Ha. Ha. Ha.
Mr. Beach | 01.07.09 - 7:14 pm | #
With all due respect for your all due respect, have you read the board lately? There are still a handful of insightful commentors around here, Broward Horne, Eric, Nemo, mp, etc., but most of the rest of us our disaster junkies and dingbats one-step-up from the Yahoo message boards. I've seen times when we've had over 1000 visitors online, and they can't all be gems.
The great credit expansion of the past 30 years has drilled buy-and-hold into the heads of the investing public.
Japanese experience be damned.
"you are buying a stream of future earnings"
not always. you could be buying cash, mineral reserves, expectation of a buyout, anticipation of a trend (like sears when everyone had RE mania) etc.
what you are almost always buying is really more about fashion than anything else. maybe this wasn't true when people held for years at a time, but it is now, and also true with the broader market.
I had lunch with some CRE guys in MPLS
today.. I came away so depressed.. One of their friends had offed himself in Chicago yesterday. One of the guys a big player didn't come to lunch because he is to depressed to get out of bed. They are in a panic, I mean in a serious fricking panic, this will not end good. I went to Costco and bought food, tomorrow ammunition and Friday as much cash as the bank will give me...shit!
Bush solves our China problem:
Yahoo!
Whew!
If we can have paper money, the white house can have paper plates as far as I'm CONcerned.
don't use the conventional wisdom of this board as a contrary indicator
CR has surprisingly broad influence, although I suspect the comments section is perhaps 1/10th of that.
I believe CR has peaked in influence but I can't prove it. People will only voluntarily deal with bad news for so long.
One of the interesting coincidences of most US crashes going back to the Civil war is the "double-dip" pattern.
True downturns are almost never more than 24 months long. In the previous depressions, there's almost always an up-break for several months between successive 24-month downturns.
I suspect it's psychological.
People can only handle bad news for perhaps 24 months at a time. GD follows that pattern, too, I believe there's a brief pop around 1932.
.
Can we just call it the Great Malaise and get it over with?
No capitulation, just a gneral boring sideways movement.
The whipsaws up and down allow everyone to think there is money to be made. When the trend is sideways, then those who have lost big will relaize it is not coming back anytime soon.
It's where we are going. Maybe by 2015 we'll snap out of it in the U.S.
"One of the interesting coincidences of most US crashes going back to the Civil war is the "double-dip" pattern. "
e.g.?
1932, 1937? 1974, 1981? or were you thinking in a tighter timeframe?
Any guesses on the NFP report this Friday? ADP came in at 690k, but their accuracy hasn't been that great.
I'll go a little higher to 750k jobs lost.
US Bank has announced no raises this year and a hiring freeze. US Bank was one of those good banks, right?
PapaSloth: Sure there are more and more dingbats here. But you have to acknowledge that the readers & posters are a self-selecting group: those that are concerned enough about our macroeconomic stability to seek out more in-depth information.
Although it appears that we discuss the news, the discussions here are far, far, far from the mainstream.
E.g., very few people, know or care about the massive expansion of the Fed's balance sheet.
PapaSloth writes:
That would be fair if I were a bull
If you looked at my portfolio today, you'd see I'm long oil and gold, and that I've sold a whole bunch of out of the money calls on both the bull and bear side, which means I'm hedged against a big dollop of inflation but expecting that the market will pretty much continue to trade sideways for the next 6 months minimum. I'm planning on sitting back and collecting my theta for the next little while.
Well then we're not too much different...except that I won't make any bets on the long side until we have capitulation. LEAPS, cash and gold only. Give the LEAPS time to be correct, then sell for profits and wait in cash for the next bear-market rally.
papasloth-
Are you trying to compare today's economic environment with 2003?
Oh my.
USBank is one of the better ones, but they do have some HELOCs on the books. Don't know about any CRE though, which would be the backbreaker.
"I fear this is incorrect."
It won't even work, or would not if hysterical expectations actually came to pass.
The end of a commonly held world view does feel like the end of the world.
After a while, the thought: "I lost my money, I'm dead", will sound like nonsense.
I believe CR has peaked in influence but I can't prove it. People will only voluntarily deal with bad news for so long.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 7:27 pm |
i was able to rub elbows with some people from fox (the news corp fox) at a bar on new years eve. they had never heard of calculated risk. they were very nice people by the way.
so i disagree that cr has peaked.
I can barely get people to discuss the economy with for longer than 15 minutes. I am nearly always met with the following retorts:
Almost no one in my peer group has any idea where things really are.
papa sloth - so a "great poster" is someone who call bottoms? LOL
the 2009 S&P earnings will be about $48 x 12 = 576...look for the bottom there
"i was able to rub elbows with some people from fox (the news corp fox) at a bar on new years eve. they had never heard of calculated risk."
Is it possible they don't know how to read?
Baca writes:
USBank is one of the better ones, but they do have some HELOCs on the books. Don't know about any CRE though, which would be the backbreaker.
The CRE guy that I said couldn't get out of bed because of depression was turned down by a 27 year old kid a US Bank for a refi loan.. They are not lending, that is the problem
I didn't realize the true depth of denial. Taht comment about the kid's 529 struck home.
I've ssen that same effect. People who intellecutally understood about the Crash were still emotionally disconnected.
Until the 529 statement came.
There's a layer of psychological denial that's wrapped around another layer of denial. The first layer exists so it can be ripped off, so the owner can proclaim, "Yes, I am seeing reality now", but carefully leaving the second layer of denial in place.
Those layers of denial are what create the dead-cat bounces.
I can see this clearer now in people's behavior and in my own.
.
Are you trying to compare today's economic environment with 2003?
Quincy k | 01.07.09 - 7:31 pm | #
Not at all! This is the WORST DISASTER IN THE ENTIRE HISTORY OF THE UNIVERSE, EVAR, and it's even worse than when the gigantic asteroid crashed into the earth and killed all the dinosaurs, and we're all DOOMED DOOMED DOOMED, to be cast down into a lake of fire, and it will cost a TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION dollars to buy a single loaf of bread, but there won't be ANY BREAD to buy because all the bread factories will be shut down and everyone everywhere will be unemployed, 100% worldwide unemployment rate, except maybe for the chairman of the Fed who will be the only one in the whole world with a job.
Is that gloomy enough?
"Maybe by 2015 we'll snap out of it in the U.S."
that's well shy by at least a decade of median baby boomer death. also, japan is still falling from '91 peaks, and we are following that script quite faithfully, except for the part where our employment levels are crashing at an exponentially faster pace than theirs were at any point.
"I lost my money, I'm dead"
It's the American mantra, which happens to be true to a very large degree. People will continue to believe it as long as it's possible for your family of four to end up living in your car in a deserted parking lot.
The reality has to change before the perception does.
the 2009 S&P earnings will be about $48 x 12 = 576...look for the bottom there
crispy&cole | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 7:33 pm | #
If it gets down there, I'll start buying then
Odd, I was just watching a video of Neil Armstrong talking about "truth's protective layer."
- The economy is too depressing to talk about.
- It'll get better in 6 months.
- This area is different.
Mr. Beach | 01.07.09 - 7:33 pm | #
You forgot:
- I can't do anything about it, so I don't care.
Almost no one in my peer group has any idea where things really are.
Ignorance = victims, displaces responsibility.
Is it possible they don't know how to read?
mp | 01.07.09 - 7:34 pm | #
i'm no genius but these two folks were extremely intelligent. very good critical thinkers...fun to argue with. they were definitely not what i was expecting.
OT- Is SKF a good buy at 110?
A sign of the times, latest food fad in Britain is eating squirrel, NY Times article....RARE roast beef splashed with meaty jus, pork enrobed in luscious crackling fat, perhaps a juicy, plump chicken ... these are feasts that come to mind when one thinks of quintessential British food. Lately, however, a new meat is gracing the British table: squirrel.
or were you thinking in a tighter timeframe?
The big crashes -
1873, 1893, 1929. I haven't studied the 1960-1987 period. My assumption since about 1993 is that this depression would map closer to the post-Civil War period than 1929, using Cold war as a proxy for the Civil War.
.
PapaSloth: Is that gloomy enough?
Close.
ShortCourage --
When you buy a stock, you are buying a stream of future earnings.
Others will argue, but I actually agree.
So some kind of PE ratio has to be relevant to stock prices, no?
Not necessarily a ratio. If the earnings are highly volatile, then looking at just the last (or next) 12 months might tell you very little about the value of the company.
I am not saying "stocks are cheap". I am saying I do not know whether they are cheap or expensive. I think the answer is unknowable as long as the government is picking the winners and losers and the Fed is doing what it is doing.
This environment, combined with the collapse in earnings, makes me skeptical of any argument based on P/E.
I have a buddy who is short this market because he thinks the S&P earnings are headed to $60 and the P/E is headed to 10. I think he is nuts, partially because of the risk of government interference, but also because I see no reason to expect the P/E to bottom at the same time the earnings do.
" Is SKF a good buy at 110?"
i'm more inclined just to short the ones with more meat on their bones at this point, JPM, PNC, USB, etc
"People will continue to believe it as long as it's possible for your family of four to end up living in your car in a deserted parking lot."
That they believe it's possible doesn't mean that it will happen. But even if it did, it would mean the beginning of a struggle, not the end of life.
The Clearing House LLC ...
The Clearing House LLC: Board of Directors - BusinessWeek
Anybody on the board is up to their eyeballs in trouble, most are underwater by multiples ...
" sneering nihilist writes:
.....
i'm no genius but these two folks were extremely intelligent. very good critical thinkers...fun to argue with. they were definitely not what i was expecting.
sneering nihilist | 01.07.09 - 7:38 pm | # "
That's because you've been listening to critiques on DailyKOS, or getting 2nd hand renditions of those critiques.
i'm no genius but these two folks were extremely intelligent. very good critical thinkers...fun to argue with. they were definitely not what i was expecting.
sneering nihilist | 01.07.09 - 7:38 pm | #
Everyone I know is talking about how much the economy sucks and how we're doomed, doomed, doomed. I don't know where all these optimists you're meeting live, but people are pretty pessimistic here in Portland, OR.
i'm no genius but these two folks were extremely intelligent. very good critical thinkers...fun to argue with. they were definitely not what i was expecting.
sneering nihilist | 01.07.09 - 7:38 pm | #
Must not have been any of the on air "talent"
Yeah, but 8/10 of them are probably still fully invested.
@PapaSloth
Everyone I know is talking about how much the economy sucks and how we're doomed, doomed, doomed. I don't know where all these optimists you're meeting live, but people are pretty pessimistic here in Portland, OR.
PapaSloth | 01.07.09 - 7:41 pm | #
if c&c sees an s&p of 576 (not an unrealistic inference I might add), then how do we ever get to that point?
c&c is a consistent uber-bear. before we get to 576 we need to get rid of every single person who is less bearish and will buy before the s&p gets to that point.
not saying we don;t get that low, but if we do it's going to take a very long time to get there, or a truly epic crash event to get there quickly.
Yeah, but 8/10 of them are probably still fully invested.
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ | 01.07.09 - 7:42 pm | #
A lot of them that had investments are totally broke at this point. They don't have any money left in the market because they don't have any money left, period. That means they will not be selling stocks in the immediate future.
"then how do we ever get to that point?"
A hedge fund collapse causes another panic.
"crispy&cole writes:
i'm no genius but these two folks were extremely intelligent. very good critical thinkers...fun to argue with. they were definitely not what i was expecting."
Excellent. One of the worst things you can do is assume that the people who disagree with you are fools.
"using Cold war as a proxy for the Civil War."
comparing the worlds before and after the '73 devaluation is extremely tricky. and, of course, the cold war lasted ten times as long as the civil war.
as far as i can tell in the big, big picture, the massive influx of california gold and debt/speculation based around prairie farming in the 1860s leading to a massive deflationary hangover which was finally cured by the spanish-american war, klondike and overseas gold discoveries and a nice productivity boost in the 1890s were the big stories.
how do we normalize the currency story so these events are remotely relevant to our xerocratic current era? i know not. i do think the cultural resonances between here and the run-up to GD are significant.
That's because you've been listening to critiques on DailyKOS, or getting 2nd hand renditions of those critiques.
xxxxx | 01.07.09 - 7:41 pm | #
i don't go to dailykos.
I don't know where all these optimists you're meeting live, but people are pretty pessimistic here in Portland, OR.
PapaSloth | 01.07.09 - 7:41 pm | #
i never said that they were optimistic.
Must not have been any of the on air "talent"
crispy&cole | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 7:42 pm | #
you are correct.
so i disagree that cr has peaked
I'm okay with that, I freely admit that I could be wrong.
You should check out quantcast.com's ratings for CR, though. Small percentage of "fanatic readers" make up a lot of the traffic.
.
Nemo,
The PE ratio just says how much you're willing to pay for a dollar of earnings. So that is very relevant, I think, if the earnings number is smoothed to be a useful predictor of future earnings.
This environment, combined with the collapse in earnings, makes me skeptical of any argument based on P/E
Yes there was (and is an ongoing) collapse in earnings. But before pronouncing the lower earnings a temporary anomaly, one should examine how earnings shot up abnormally high during the credit bubble.
Oops.
Here's the link showing how Bush solved our nation's China problem.
Yahoo!
And I thought Bush would be a lame duck.
Thread music. Marks & Sparks with Uriah Heep and Salisbury.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8O2nngv7IY
I don't know where all these optimists you're meeting live, but people are pretty pessimistic here in Portland, OR.
It isn't that people I know are optimistic. They are cautious and nervous. Some are angry. Most are confused. They did not understand the credit bubble as it expanded. And do not understand clearly the consequences of its collapse.
It appears to me that until they (the herd) finds a clear new broadly agreed upon path to riches(another bubble), they will follow the old one: buy and hold.
Nemo writes:
"I am not saying "stocks are cheap". I am saying I do not know whether they are cheap or expensive....
This environment, combined with the collapse in earnings, makes me skeptical of any argument based on P/E."
Exactamundo. Until there is visbility over past and predicatable earnings, there is nothing but entropy in the system.
"That's because you've been listening to critiques"
or because you're sentient and have noticed the effect of "conservative" deregulation of the financial markets in the past decade and thus assumed that only a hardcore misanthrope or complete idiot could be on board that particular trai
Marc Faber :
YouTube - (1/2) Marc Faber - Says He'd Favor Industrial Commodities Over Gold 2009-01-06
The carnage in UK retail is an excellent example of the market doing its job properly.
Marks and Spencer is an old retail dinosaur which caters mainly for the 50+, well heeled, conservative age group. Woolworths, which went belly up over Christmas, was equally dire with a tired business model that was creaking even during the boom times.
Dynamic, swift footed businesses are doing OK, picking up customers from the dying enterprises.
It's a great pity that you have the TARP. It will hold back the inevitable cleansig process by a couple of years at least, and probably do more harm than good.
One of the worst things you can do is assume that the people who disagree with you are fools.
I don't assume they are fools if they disagree with me, I know they are fools
, the cold war lasted ten times as long as the civil war
I only look at the post-war period. I wrote this before but...
Railroads == Networks
Railroads destroyed local commoditiy monopolies. This is where the railroads derived a lot of value.
Networks have destroyed local information monopolies. This is where they derive their value.
The infrastructure information monopolies drove the economy, so I assume Intel, Microsoft & IBM as proxies for the railroad companies.
.
Gotta go.
Later.
"...xerocratic current era?"
Era of dry rule? That was Prohibition, wasn't it?
monta's ankle writes
if c&c sees an s&p of 576 (not an unrealistic inference I might add), then how do we ever get to that point?
Q: How did we get to the bubble peak?
A: Leverage.
So I think you can guess my answer to your question. Lots of deleveraging yet to come. Hedge funds, households and businesses. Maybe a few governments too.
How is the GBP going to hold up in this crisis? What do you think people holding pounds should do?
"Dynamic, swift footed businesses are doing OK"
same with individual careers. folks with genuine skills which correspond with actual niches and/or rock-bottom value players are surviving, though not necessarily prospering.
After a while, the thought: "I lost my money, I'm dead", will sound like nonsense.
Pavel Chichikov | 01.07.09 - 7:32 pm | #
Thinking about this today. FICO score and our net worth has become the standard of worth(self image) in this country. GD II will be worse due to this mind set. Mental illness will sky rocket in the next few months. Be very polite to everyone you come in contact with...
PapaSloth- I agree Portland is starting to show the cracks of a poor local economy. I've been in the hunt for a house for three years. Houses are now showing up as short sales with a good 20-30% drop in asking price with wiggle room. Realtors are using this as a marketing tool. Banks are taking a long time in making decisions, probably waiting to see what happens with the stimulus package.
"Era of dry rule? That was Prohibition, wasn't it?"
sorry, cute, obscure term, rule by xerox, i.e., the fiat supply-side era we currently inhabit.
but, speaking of prohibition, i guess that's the real silver lining. looks like we can end the war on drugs the easy way or hard way, just like the war on booze.
DOW 3500?
So, where are we now? - The Sovereign Speculator
So, where are we now?
13 dec 2008 8: 05 pm | Filed under: TEOTWAWKI, bailout, bear markets, commodities, crash, deflation, depression, gold, housing, peak oil, short selling, social mood
When I started this blog in early August, I was living near the equator in a city overlooking the Pacific, having packed up and shipped out of New York just after Bear Stearns blew up. 18 weeks ago, the Dow was solidly over 11,000, the 30-year bond was 4.6%, gold was $900, oil was $120 and the latest CPI figures were showing double-digit annualized inflation. I was holding a huge array of LEAPS and ETFs that put me massively short equities (including mining and energy), net short gold, and long Treasuries.
I was then constantly emailing friends and family with my latest reasons to get out of stocks, miners included, and to buy into Treasury MMFs and index puts. For the previous nine months I had been endlessly explaining the logic of deflation and its implications, having been dissuaded of Schiff-esque conclusions by the likes of Mish and Prechter, and I wanted to go on the record more publicly with my calls. Besides bragging rights, I wanted the pressure to dig deeper and get the details right.
I called for a depression worse than the 1930s. I said that the Dow was on its way to below 3500 (under 9500 by Christmas, I suspected), that commodities would tank, that gold would fall well under $700, that there would be huge bailouts for the crooks who blew the bubble (though I never thought wed see anything like $9 trillion by the end of 08), that Obama would win and back a new New Deal and that the long bond would yield less than 3% anyway.
How is the GBP going to hold up in this crisis? What do you think people holding pounds should do?
~~~~
The GBP will crash before the dollar crashes, but they will both crash.
All currencies are being devalued in a race to the bottom ... It's a worldwide crash.
Nordstream NG pipeline will be commissioned in October of 2011, with EU approval by all member states.
bgates | 01.07.09 - 7:47 pm
ha!
hey bgates i've been adding to my gold collection. you've talked about how maples look while they glisten in the sun and i agree that it is cool but they way a woman's face changes when one plops several ounces in her hand is waaaaay more cool.
Nemo,
I agree that the environment (government intervention, bailouts, picking winners and losers) makes it very scary to invest in anything, be it a bull or a bear investment.
But you gotta put your money somewhere, and for all we know cash could be picked as the loser.
I just look at all the interventions of the government so far, all geared to stop the deflation. How well, and for how long have any of their actions succeeded? How successful was Japan?
I'm with Mish on this one. Deleveraging will happen, and it will drop asset prices further, down to levels where they are supported by fundamentals.
That's what I'm betting my money on. But of course I stocked up on gold, just in case the government does succeed in reflating.
Plenty of my colleagues and acquaintances feel the market fell too fast, they were not able to get out in time, now the market stabilized/bottomed and they might as well ride it out. Still heavily invested in equities.
More happy talk from "Prof" Siegel. This guy annoys me as much as Ben Stein.
Forecast
"All of this means that, although the first quarter of 2009 will see negative growth, GDP should stabilize in the second quarter, earlier than most economists now anticipate. In real terms, housing prices have already retraced most of their gains from 2000, and by midyear prices should stabilize in this low-interest-rate environment. Year-over-year inflation should sink to zero, especially in the first half of 2009.
This year, as the economic slide abates and investors realize a catastrophe has been avoided, stock prices should enjoy a 20 percent or higher return. All equity sectors should recover."
" bgates writes:
"That's because you've been listening to critiques"
or because you're sentient and have noticed the effect of "conservative" deregulation of the financial markets in the past decade and thus assumed that only a hardcore misanthrope or complete idiot could be on board that particular train
bgates | 01.07.09 - 7:47 pm | # "
As I recall, Sneering Nihlist said:
"i'm no genius but these two folks were extremely intelligent. very good critical thinkers...fun to argue with. they were definitely not what i was expecting."
So evidently you're the idiot.
PBS NewsHour With Jim Lehrer
Had a segment about unrest among unemployed Chinese.
At one place a Police van was destroyed.
Like dryfly was predicting.
Many here have said that the college bubble is ready to burst. If it does, the children of today probably won't need a huge 529 account to afford it. Like it was back when my parents went to college.
Interesting note, post Christmas sales were relatively strong... especially last week. I am curious to see if this turns into a trend.
Again... I said relatively
Listening right now to a recent Marc Faber interview
. He says all of SEC should be put in jail - interviewer changed the subject - brushed it off.
Faber's not talking hyperbole. We need broad and severe accounting of responsibility for running the world's economy over a cliff.
"So evidently you're the idiot."
perhaps, but i'm an idiot who was buying gold and protesting against the war when gwb's approval was 90%. yourself?
FWIW, I would expect that stocks will go back to being judged based upon pre-90's criteria, i.e., mostly on dividends vs. appreciation. The focus on stock price movement for long-term investments is a relatively recent phenomenon sparked by the easy money of the Greenspan era.
U.S. In the Midst of a Revolution
U.S. In the Midst of a Revolution -- Seeking Alpha
" bgates writes:
"So evidently you're the idiot."
perhaps, but i'm an idiot who was buying gold and protesting against the war when gwb's approval was 90%. yourself?
bgates | 01.07.09 - 7:59 pm | # "
I was not for the war, though I didn't protest. I have no interest in buying gold. My brother-in-law was left holding the bag with expensive gold after the bubble in the early '80s, or was it the late '70s.
Google cuts temporary workers but murky on details
Google cutting back on temporary workers, still plans to spend billions on R&D, acquisitions Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
"My brother-in-law was left holding the bag"
right. i heard a lot of that when i was beating the drum in '02/'03 about commodities.
when you drive, do you tend to use the big piece of glass in front of you or the small shiny one in the middle at the top for the majority of your visual feedback needs?
"but i'm an idiot who was buying gold and protesting against the war when gwb's approval was 90%. yourself?
bgates | 01.07.09 - 7:59 pm | # "
Perhaps my biggest accomplish (financially) was not giving in to buying a house in '04-'06. That probably saved me $300k, FWIW.
"when you drive, do you tend to use the big piece of glass in front of you or the small shiny one in the middle at the top for the majority of your visual feedback needs?
bgates | 01.07.09 - 8:03 pm | # "
I use the eyes that God gave me. You?
"I use the eyes that God gave me."
may your faith in things unseen serve you as well as your imaginary three hundred grand
Macy's Inc. is expected to announce as soon as Thursday that it will close 10 locations, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Another over-priced clothing store in trouble. Who's next? Abercrombe & Fitch or Banana Republic?
You should check out quantcast.com's ratings for CR, though. Small percentage of "fanatic readers" make up a lot of the traffic.
.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 7:45 pm
Gee, I hope I qualify as a "fanatic reader" without having to post comments more frequently than I do.
There are already too many comments to read unless CR becomes one's full time avocation.
"Abercrombe & Fitch or Banana Republic?"
gigantic local Border's is going down was the local news today
"But, as the preceding text indicates, the list of foundational culprits must truly begin with the U.S. societal devotion to cheap energy, inefficient autos, outsized homes, sprawl, roads in lieu of public transit, and excessive materialism.
In other words, many of the things that make the U.S. economy environmentally unsustainable are what have also made the U.S. economy financially unsustainable."
Yep.
"also made the U.S. economy financially unsustainable."
it would have been sustainable if we backed it up with skills, goods, resources etc instead of credit. but we didn't, and don't, of course.
It's a sad day when a parent is forced to tell his teenager: "$65 for a T-shirt is too much, even if it is on sale."
Another over-priced clothing store in trouble. Who's next? Abercrombe & Fitch or Banana Republic?
Speed | 01.07.09 - 8:08 pm | #
Aren't they all GAP? They will make it up at Old Navy.
Putin and Timoshenko agree in principle to EU inspectors as monitors of NG gas flow. It begins to look as if Ukraine is going to cave. The issue here has never been, fundamentally, what Ukraine pays Russia for NG. There is a much greater issue at stake.
bgates writes:
buying gold and protesting against the war
It feels good to own gold when those that wish they had can't get it no way no how
PapaSloth writes:
Too late for me, I already capitulated on the long side a couple of months ago. I'm in the process of capitulating on the short side now.
PapaSloth | 01.07.09 - 7:03 pm | #
Waitin' on the SPX to nudge 940 (maybe 950'ish) are we? I figure we got one more good 'dump' that should bottom around 860 by mid-week. Then a 'rally' to 1040 before the big decline sets in...
The issue here has never been, fundamentally, what Ukraine pays Russia for NG.
Which is why the Ukrainian gas prices are set in such backward way.
http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/35464
I think Putin wants Crimea back
There is a much greater issue at stake.
Pavel Chichikov | 01.07.09 - 8:16 pm | #
which is...?
russian regional domination?
please elaborate, i always enjoy reading your posts whatever the subject.
Mr. Beach writes:
It appears to me that until they (the herd) finds a clear new broadly agreed upon path to riches(another bubble), they will follow the old one: buy and hold.
I think one reason people are leaving their $$ in stocks is the lack of anywhere else to put the $$ (sort of a microcosm of China's problem). Why keep the $$ in a CD worth 2% interest, they think. Can't buy real estate anymore, what else to do?
Not saying that I agree, but lack of places to stash $$ elsewhere is definitely an issue
"It feels good"
i've gotten over the schadenfreude. i feel genuinely bad at this point for the folks getting crushed by this economy, even the realtors.
"...it would have been sustainable if we backed it up with skills, goods, resources etc instead of credit. but we didn't, and don't, of course."
As they say: If your aunt had wheels she'd be a tea trolley.
If you go back to the original premises they may explain why the skills, goods and resources were not forthcoming.
Addiction to immediate gratification - is not only short-sighted, it's tragic.
"what else to do?"
excellent point. commodities still seem too exotic for most, as well, and too frightening on the one-year chart, same with corporate bonds.
"...russian regional domination?"
And then some. Real and not just fictive Ukrainian independence is intolerable to the Russian state. This is not just a product of a lust for power on the part of Russia. It is an existential issue.
is ukraine the only state that reaches this "existential" threshold? what about the baltic states? any of the stans (like kazakhstan)?
With all due respect for your all due respect, have you read the board lately? There are still a handful of insightful commentors around here, Broward Horne, Eric, Nemo, mp, etc., but most of the rest of us our disaster junkies and dingbats one-step-up from the Yahoo message boards.
PapaSloth | 01.07.09 - 7:25 pm | #
ha ha! You forgot about me!
Seriously back on topic: I had the great fortune to sell everything when the Dow was 14000 (house buy, not in cali, but in NC).
I keep telling everyone at the office I'll buy back in at Dow 7000. They laugh and say its only going up from here.
I like my odds
even the realtors.
bgates | 01.07.09 - 8:22 pm | #
What!?!? Sorry, but I can not help but enjoy the misery of any member of that usless profession.
"E.g., very few people, know or care about the massive expansion of the Fed's balance sheet."
As if that's not bad enough, most people don't even know what the Fed or a balance sheet is.
OT (from MarketWatch):
8:20 p.m. Obama: plan to stop foreclosures 'in the next month or two'
8:18 p.m. Obama: FDIC's Baer has had sense of urgency 'I want to see
real and not just fictive Ukrainian independence is intolerable to the Russian state.
Nah - All Putin wants is Crimea and eastern Ukraine, which is populated mostly by ethnic Russians. I do not think he cares all that much about Kiev or western Ukraine.
"It is an existential issue."
there's no reason eastern ukraine shouldn't be part of russia, AFAIK. and if anyone wants to claim transdniestra, good for them.
8:20 p.m. Obama: plan to stop foreclosures 'in the next month or two'
~~~
And just how does he plan to do that ?
"...what about the baltic states? "
They are not culturally Russian, and with the exception of Poland not even Slavic. They are all members of NATO. Many of the people in these states detest and fear Russia, for good historical reasons. Russia might cause them trouble, but they will exert themselves to the last ounce of strength to avoid knuckling under to Moscow.
A Russian person of influence told me in the late 80s that while Russia would have to give up the DDR, the Baltic states were 'ours.' But that was a different era, eh?
ol' Andrew Mellon had some bad perspectives based on his life of wealth, but for calling human reaction to bad economic/market times, his best known phrase comes very close to reality.
So far, we've had some tears on the sheets, but not near enough blood on the streets (total capitulation on the markets).
The ONLY worthwhile thing Bush ever said is 'this sucker is going down'.
We are nowhere near the bottom because their isn't enough truly productive economy left in the US to reignite growth. Ask oneself, just which major industry/sector has the prospect of rapid growth over the next 10 years? Will the US be a dominant player in that industry/sector?
Cash is king until a clear answer to those questions is in hand - unless cash itself becomes increasingly worthless.
"the Baltic states were 'ours.' "
so when do the prussians get konigsberg back?
"Nah - All Putin wants is Crimea and eastern Ukraine, which is populated mostly by ethnic Russians. I do not think he cares all that much about Kiev or western Ukraine."
I think he does, to the extent that he would want even a rump Ukrainian state as an obedient client. But in fact, at present, the following would be a much better political solution from the Russian point of view: A nominally independent Ukraine submissive to Russian wishes. Otherwise, there is serious risk of a clash with NATO and the US. A servile Ukrainian state is a much safer and much more achievable outcome from the Kremlin's point of view - IMHO.
Expectations are that a large midwestern state government will not make payroll in a couple of months and that cuts cannot solve the cash flow crisis. Will tax hikes be implemented? Payments to state venders are already 6-12 months delinquent.
"...so when do the prussians get konigsberg back?"
Let us know when you see pigs landing at your local airport.
Prairiedog:
How big a deal is it that the German bonds didn't sell?
Wow. Failed bund auction.
I would say very big deal. I know between reading your question and responding I went, read the source article on the event and notified like 10 people it happened in case they hadn't already heard.
The import-all-retail-goods-middle-man-owned-economy is not sustainable. Try bringing back manufacturing to the US and don't anticipate a 1000% markup to make a profit after the CEOs take half.
What I really want to see is what all those California State Employees do with their IOUs instead of real paychecks.
Mad max here we come...
8:20 p.m. Obama: plan to stop foreclosures 'in the next month or two'
~~~
And just how does he plan to do that ?
mmckinl | 01.07.09 - 8:37 pm | #
That's exactly what I want to know. At some point, the person holding the mortgage is going to want to dispose of their property.
So, either you've got to define it as no longer theirs (which is a huge "taking", and something you can't just legislate away) or redefine it as theirs but they can't dispose of it, which means they're going to have to write it down, which means banks need more capital and....
aww fuck it.. where do I send the check?
(Note.... just did pay Q4 est tax... I hate having to actually write a check as opposed to witthholding... so much more painfaul)
Pavel Chichikov(Excellent) writes:
A servile Ukrainian state is a much safer and much more achievable outcome from the Kremlin's point of view - IMHO.
Today's "student of the game" award goes to Pavel.
If IOU's are taking in trade is that a second currency or not ? The dollar is nothing but a IOU just with backing of a crooked federal reserve note .....
Credit cards, pension plans, falling tax revenue, job losses. At least CapitolOne is now a bank. Cause they are going to lose money for awhile.
Credit card defaults rise again in December
Associated Press,
source Forbes.com File Not Found
snip
An index of charge-offs on so-called prime credit card portfolios rose in December to its highest level in four years, while the rate at which cardholders repaid outstanding balances slowed to its lowest since mid-2004, Fitch said.
Fitch said its prime charge-off index in December grew to 6.84 percent, rising 31 percent higher than a year earlier. Fitch forecasts the rate will reach 8 percent this year as job losses spread.
Charge-offs by retailers for store-issued cards surged last month to a three-year high of 10.5 percent. Fitch said the latest figure is 49 percent higher than the retailer charge-off index in December 2007. Fitch expects the rate to surpass 12 percent by midyear.
snip
In December, an index that tracks repayment of outstanding card balances recorded its sharpest one-month drop on record, dropping to about 16 percent from more than 18 percent the previous month, Fitch said.
And just how does he plan to do that ?
It's just snippets on the marketwatch site from some interview he is apparently giving (currently on TV?).
I am guessing it was poorly phrased to say that Obama will reveal his plan to mitiage foreclosures in a month or two.
A servile Ukrainian state is a much safer and much more achievable outcome from the Kremlin's point of view
A servile Ukrainian state not feasible so long as Ukraine includes the land west of Kiev
"The ONLY worthwhile thing Bush ever said "
not true at all, i've enjoyed dozens of chuckles from the "food on your family" line alone
"A servile Ukrainian state not feasible "
i really don't know if the UN/NATO would care if putin tried to take the whole thing. what's there? no real resources. the whole word "ukraine" just means "frontier" if i'm not mistaken - when has it had an identity of its own? and as for moldova, isn't that really more part of africa than europe on a statistical basis?
" (Note.... just did pay Q4 est tax... I hate having to actually write a check as opposed to witthholding... so much more painfaul)"
Well, given that the tax refund I'll be due from the good ol' People's Republic of the Golden Bear is likely to arrive as a useless IOU, I think I'd rather be making estimated payments. Looks like my best bet will be to direct that my refund be directed toward '09 state taxes and to bulk up my deductions and exemptions on my DE-4 so I have next to nothing withheld for the first part of the year. Good times.
I think NATO should consider Poland its border. The Russian military has got to be uneasy enough with Poland resurgent.
I never understood the desire, as it can only be seen as hostile, for the US and Europe to even entertain the idea of Ukraine as part of the EU.
It would be equal to the Russian Federation expecting us to like the idea of Canada becoming a part of their federation.
Russia is paranoid - but for a very good reason. History.
"The ONLY worthwhile thing Bush ever said "
not true at all, i've enjoyed dozens of chuckles from the "food on your family" line alone
bgates | 01.07.09 - 8:52 pm
poor choice of word on my part:
'worthwhile' should have been 'close to true'.
but GW does win the supreme idiot prize for some of his (unintended) verbal vomits.
I am guessing it was poorly phrased to say that Obama will reveal his plan to mitiage foreclosures in a month or two.
~~~~
Obama is turning out to be just another tosser ...
If he ain't got the goods he should be quiet. Right now people don't want to hear about happy horseshit that will happen months from now.
mmckinl: If he ain't got the goods he should be quiet. Right now people don't want to hear about happy horseshit that will happen months from now.
Maybe he is just crazy and wants to wait until being sworn in before proposing legislation. Just inferring from the comments on the marketwatch (because of the randomness of the quotes) page it sounded like answers to questions he was asked.
interview summary here:
Obama: Financial Markets Face 'Substantial Overhaul' - CNBC
In the interview, Obama also:âSaid he expects to unveil a plan in the "next month or two" to prevent foreclosures, which he called "the most important thing when it comes to declining home values."Jeesus Aitch Effing Christ........ yeah..... stop the foreclosures.... that'll put a bottom in.
ok, bear with me a momment.
By removing the ability of employees in my small business (14 employees) of Direct Deposit, I will cut the costs of my overhead, and it will force the employees to consume more gas, not to mention wear and tear on the car......
does the future look more like the past?
ova,
Your point regarding Russia is well taken. The mongols, Napoleon, Hitler all invaded Russia. A desire by Russians for some sort of buffer zone is understandable.
Without transactions, you can't determine prices.
Genius!
Why Intel is having problems amongst other things. DELL is going to have problems also. Their quality had dropped a lot, their support is poor. I buy a fair amount of computers for a living, and after 10 years of buying DELL I decided no more.
Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Lenovo Group Ltd., Chinas biggest personal-computer maker, will cut about 11 percent of its workforce amid a global recession that forced the company to forecast its first loss in 11 quarters.
Lenovo will eliminate about 2,500 jobs, leading to savings of about $300 million in the year ending March 2010, the Raleigh, North Carolina-based company said today. The computer maker said it will book a charge of about $150 million this fiscal year.
The manufacturer of Thinkpad laptops said it probably had a material loss for the quarter ended Dec. 31 because personal-computer demand fell. The latest reductions will top the more than 2,000 jobs it cut in 2006 and 2007 at the unit acquired from International Business Machines Corp. to turn around the previously unprofitable operations.
"does the future look more like the past?"
a small sack of silver is a surprisingly 'green' option as well
OT--This would have fit in better in the previous porno thread:
The state budget here in GA has gone from a 2 billion surplus to a 4 billion deficit in about 60 seconds. Local lawmakers are scrambling to find new sources of revenue. One of their bright ideas to raise money is, no joke, a tax on anyone who enters a strip club.
"The mongols"
i had a cab driver in nyc 15 years ago who swore they still ran the country. this was in response to a remark about yeltsin's remarkably asiatic features...
Yeah, we'll see how strong their resolve is after the market is up 40% from the bottom and still climbing.
Yeah, we'll see how strong their resolve is after the market is up 40% from the bottom and still climbing. They wanted to sell the most at DJIA 7500 but couldn't, they'll want to buy more at DJIA 10K. People suck at market timing.
PapaSloth "
Yes people suck at market timing (human nature) and that is OK as long as they know not to listen to their impulses. I have learned a long time ago that when I feel like chasing a move I have missed the start of, it is about exactly at the moment when I feel the maximum itch to jump in that the reversal shows up. Can literally use it as an indicator. A miracle I am not schizophrenic, by now.
Rule # 1 for a trader: know yourself and disconnect from emotions... or as it has been said better by others got to know your limitations
However, the people you are talking about are not the ones moving market prices, unfortunately for them.
IMO, those who are moving the markets are going to pump this bear rally as high as they can, first with the January pop, next some correction and a new attempt to the upside, to say another 20% higher than present levels, and unless a miracle happens by the end of the second quarter they will bail. I would be amazed if this rally is still in place by May.
Traders have to make money (short term) = the key to market behavior. Simple. If they cannot sell the rally to enough "money flow" they will dump. Especially since they need the said money flow to unload into it
))
But what is also the typical BS: the first day of January, the end of the first week, and the end of the month indicate the end of the year? I cannot wait to hear that one! (if I remember correctly I do not have a Traders almanach
How could these countries sell their bonds when the Germans could not? Turkey?
Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The Philippines and Turkey sold $2.5 billion of bonds in international markets, joining a push by developing nations to take advantage of a decline in borrowing costs to finance budget deficits.
= anon 9.06 pm
OT for Lawyerliz:
I would like to put a potential client in touch with you--do you have contact info anywhere on the net?
You can contact me at skagit_demo@hotmail.com. My friend would surely appreciate it--he's got a property in Palm Beach and will be in the area next week.
Thanks if you can help.
Kurt
One of their bright ideas to raise money is, no joke, a tax on anyone who enters a strip club.
One Hot Chick | 01.07.09 - 9:04 pm | #
Including the strippers? If not, can I beat the tax by removing my clothing?
ADP charges a fee for this service (Direct Deposit) and as a processor for 1 in 6 companies in the US, this would have an impact on the bottom line.
additionally, an increasing gas tax would be beneficial to continue to squeeze the remaining drops of blood from the filthy consumer whose thirst for oil is unquenchable.
bgates,
Given how long Mongol rulers controlled Russia, it's not surprising...
Including the strippers? If not, can I beat the tax by removing my clothing?
JP | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 9:08 pm | #
The goggles, they do nothing!!!!!!!!!
(Note.... just did pay Q4 est tax... I hate having to actually write a check as opposed to witthholding... so much more painfaul)
I really think if more Americans had to write the Q check they would have a different view of tax and spend.
ova(Excellent) writes:
How could these countries sell their bonds when the Germans could not? Turkey?
The Germans are apparently very prone to taking their bonds and selling them elsewhere at a later date if they don't get just the price they expect.
Given how long Mongol rulers controlled Russia, it's not surprising..
And their offspring where a pain in the ass until 70 years ago
So is this the start of wave 5 down? If so, it's going to be a doozy.
Germany is fouled by being trapped in a bond market inside a functioning economy without the ability to tax in a Sovereign currency.
Euro case closed.
Who bails first? Im going with Greece, with a strong showing in Spain.
This probably helped a lot.
The Philippines sold $1.5 billion of 10-year notes to yield 8.5 percent, or 6 percentage points more than U.S. Treasuries, while Turkey sold $1 billion of eight-year bonds to yield 5.01 percentage points above Treasuries. The countries follow Brazil and Colombia, which each sold $1 billion of bonds this week.
One of their bright ideas to raise money is, no joke, a tax on anyone who enters a strip club.
One Hot Chick | 01.07.09 - 9:04 pm | #
I will always consider sacrificing my principles in the interest of the community. Obviously that would be the only reason for visiting... You should find me there tonight...
® writes:
Maybe he is just crazy and wants to wait until being sworn in before proposing legislation.
~~~~~
We've already heard about his timulus package being 40% tax cuts ... Paul Krugman is already saying that his plan will be a failure.
Obama looks to be running a pure DLC operation which would be the worst of both worlds ...
The Germans were doing 3.75 for 10 years
"A servile Ukrainian state not feasible so long as Ukraine includes the land west of Kiev"
Perhaps we'll find out if that is so or not over the next few years.
There is a good talk by Bill Bradley on iTunes about Russia (free on UChannel). Bradley mentions how Gorbachev was led to believe that in exchange for the USSR "allowing" the DDR re-unite with West Germany, there would be NO expansion by NATO east of its borders in 1988. Russia got increasingly paranoid and mad when NATO moved into East Germany, then Poland, Czech Republic, etc all the way to Russian borders.
How could these countries sell their bonds when the Germans could not? Turkey?
nova | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 9:07 pm | #
It is not that they couldn't sell any. The Bundesbank retained 32 percent of the offering.
German Bond Auction Fails to Attract Enough Demand
The last time the Bundesbank retained a larger share at an auction was on July 2, when it held 2.384 billion euros, or 34 percent, of a planned 7 billion-euro sale. It is a matter of the interest rate.
âI don't think this is the beginning of a big negative trend," Garvey said. âInvestors are starting question whether German yields are too rich. Germany is going to have a give a greater premium for investors to take down some of this paper."
It's fun to watch strippers crawl on the floor for dollar bills.It would be worth paying the tax
All this talk of stimulus is getting me excited. It also reminds me of a line by Mark Twain...with a slight alteration:
"Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were also a Keynsian. But I repeat myself."
Nostrovia,
JR,
Don't know if you can beat the tax by taking off your clothes, but we all promise not to look when you try it.
(As an aside, dinner was 10 oz of perfect fillet mignon, seared over an open flame on the outside, cold and the texture of raw tuna on the inside. You people and your steakhouse yammerings.)
So if the Germans can't move paper at 3.75 - The US is going to offer at 2.94? Is it worth it?
I would think German bonds are as long term stable as US? And the German ones are considered not paying enough? How much does the Treasury need to finance? And is this enough ? marks in one post?
Euro case closed.
Who bails first? Im going with Greece, with a strong showing in Spain.
recovery_story | 01.07.09 - 9:12 pm | #
And how would they achieve that?. Go back to the drachma? Would be an interesting logistical exercise and even more interesting for Greek bond rates. Do you realistically think that Greece would have a prayer at getting rates at 218 basis points over Bunds?
I don't think you have a clue regarding Europe.
Transposed US 10 yr is 2.49
OT... but since someone brought up the Drudge lead on China and debt, I guess it's not quite so bad. The Treasury published its December monthly statement of the public debt. Here are three charts that I've been maintaining after Nemo suggested them a couple months back.
Net Issuance
Yield Curve by Date
Duration/Yield by Date
On a bad note, Treasury will have to roll $1.866T between now and December 17th, 2009. On the plus side, that's actually a decrease from the peak level of just over $2T of net issuance reached on 11/20.
Transposed US 10 yr is 2.49
nova | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 9:26 pm | #
The Fed is buying so for a while there won't be competition.
"Bradley mentions how Gorbachev was led to believe that in exchange for the USSR "allowing" the DDR re-unite with West Germany, there would be NO expansion by NATO east of its borders in 1988."
That's what I heard at the time from someone who had some higher-level access, except that it wasn't just in 1988 that the West was supposed to refrain from expanding. Supposedly it was one of Gorbachev's top advisers who explained the supposed understanding.
How long can the fed keep it up ? Months Years Days ? Any guesses slowly building a position in gold and food .
Mr. Sparkle
Nice. I like the Yield Curve by Date. It also looks like a dinosaur
The goggles, they do nothing!!!!!!!!!
Eric | 01.07.09 - 9:09 pm | #
LMAO, so to speak.
Obama change is re-arrange.
So is this the start of wave 5 down? If so, it's going to be a doozy.
Gavshire Hathaway | 01.07.09 - 9:10 pm | #
It is, unless it isn't. I'm hoping "yes". Gotta go quickly though, I have some March puts that need a little love.
Nemo writes:
[mildly OT]
My own 401(k) offers PTTRX, managed by none other than William Gross.
I figure if you can't beat 'em...
Nemo | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 7:19 pm | #
Nemo:
In one of our investment programs, it's one of the options and best of a bunch of bad alternatives.
Yeah, I'm in and it's held up pretty well.
But I'm not sure what happens when the treasury bubble bursts.
Pavel Chichikov | 01.07.09 - 9:29 pm
I always wondered about that deal. It seemed to me the Russian Military had an idea it was going to happen a few years before it did.
Plus, I do not see how they thought they could hold Poland. I understand why they would want to. It just didn't seem possible.
This may be the beginning of the end of civilization. I remember -- or, read -- that the Romans debased their currency, then ... .
"Its an increasingly common scene in once-hot real estate markets from Eugene to Portland to Bend. Construction liens have doubled in Multnomah County and tripled in Washington County, and while other major metro counties throughout Oregon do not track those pleas for payment specifically, the anecdotal evidence suggests that the love affair between banks, developers, builders, suppliers and subcontractors is officially over."
Lien times hit construction - Oregon Business
It's different in Portland.
reptillian | 01.07.09 - 9:35 pm
The English debased theirs and survived.
Nova,
Is that the dreaded "Stegosaurus" formation that chart technicians fret over?
Mr. Sparkle
I am still looking at it and it does seem to be waving.
My Dad says that if January is up (which doesn't look likely), then we're beginning to see the end of this. If it's down, then holy $#!+
xxxxx | 01.07.09 - 6:36 pm | #
If he wants to understand what's going on he should be watching the game instead of the scoreboard.
I don't think you have a clue regarding Europe.
RE | 01.07.09 - 9:25 pm ....
Balkin debacle with Swedish financing, something about a Gazprom-blem and Club Med..... go Euro, beat Navy...
all good in the old countries....