No disrespect CR - the real story is failed debt offering as of late. Simply put, lots of folks looking for money and not being able to find it. Some are crowded out others dont want to pay a premium.
This is classic credit freeze.
The German government failed to cover a 10 year Bund auction today (Wednesday) and one reader mentioned this in a comment an unrelated post
Yep, I'm guessing your including Umpqua as one of those. That's my bank and now I have something to say to them when I go in besides the usual "Are you guys ready for the bank runs?".
Do we know how much $$ evaporated in the dotcom bust, compared with how much has evaporated in this crisisso far? Just wonder if we've surpassed 2000 losses yet.
it doesn't end, it has more tentacles than 99% of TPTB ever imagined. And those tentacles reach deeper than ever thought and they are wrapped around more pieces of the economy and population than anyone ever thought. It's a chain, it's all connected. When you rush to strengthen a weak link, then the link right next to strains and needs reinforcement...ad infinitum ad absurdium.....ad nauseaum.
write downs like that hurt real bad in leveraged models. typical banking is about 10:1 leverage IIRC. so a 10% writeoff can BK you. a 2% write down takes out 20% loaning capability. in theory.
he German government failed to cover a 10 year Bund auction today (Wednesday) and one reader mentioned this in a comment an unrelated post Barley | 01.07.09 - 10:25 pm | #
Germans should have offered a higher yield. With more yield, they could be a destination for a US Dollar to Euros carry trade.
Black Star Ranch | 01.07.09 - 10:30 pm | #
Certainly is. Another couple truths I've learned is that teaching kids critical thinking skills when they're toddlers is great until they hit around age 13. Then you want them to just go with your program. Ditto to the wonderful joys of parenthood making your life full comments a few threads back. I don't think they're kids have hit the "terrible teens."
Heard your comment re: middle boys being a "challenge" - Isn't THAT the genetic truth of all parenting truths!
Black Star Ranch | 01.07.09 - 10:30 pm | #
Yawn.. Wake me when mentioning CRE causes apoplexy..
On a related note, you can get a 8 person fully furnished office with all kinds of services in Calgary, Canada for 1,100 per month with next day possesion. What is curious about this and related office CRE in Calgary is that this office suite is in the most prestigious office building in Calgary - Bankers Hall (the newer twin tower).
This same CRE leasing entity has similar and much larger office suites in even newer buildings in Calgary, a place that was supposed to have a 6 year CRE shortage last year.
And Calgary is still doing quite OK, jobwise.
Oh.. And they also rent very nice 20 person conference rooms with all equipment and teleconferencing facilities for 55 $/hr.
It is cheaper and much nicer than a motel for a meeting with an escort and the view is awesome.
there has to be some estimate of what $ amount of debt, property value, CDS contracts, etc. needs to be written down to bring the price in line with its value. WTF is that $ amount? $2T? $20T? $200T? at some point we have to have some idea of what the market value impact of all this is. hasn't world equity value dropped about $50T so far?
I have been surprised at the ability of the banks to shuffle and reclassify the debt. Truthfully, I didn't expect them to be able to hold out this long.
Of course, CRE is much more of a political animal and so, there is a lot more give on the forbearance side of accounting than on the consumer/ retail side.
.....LOL......you know, there's no pretty way to disguise an empty strip mall. So much combined expense, it seems it might be disadvantageous to have it half filled....??
In his final speech scheduled as Treasury secretary, Henry M. Paulson Jr. yesterday proposed replacing mortgage-finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with highly regulated utilities that would play a more limited role in making money available for home loans.
I am confident that the FDIC under Sheila Bair has all the answers. After all, when the FDIC took over IndyMac she was able to fix the foreclosure problem for all of its customers quickly. Wasn't she?
It is all very simple really. All we need to do is change the loan terms using a simple universal formula.
And once again, I propose the 0% interest-only loan as the solution.
I am confident that Bernanke and Bair will converge towards my solution in due course.
Jesus Christ, shouldn't that be huge news? Last time I looked the risk premie on Bund was LOWER than that for T-bonds. Sick and Tired Dude | 01.07.09 - 10:46 pm | #
Not really, it is old news. Three of the four bund auctions last year would have failed except the Bundesbank bought the unsold bonds, just like today.
The Germans are just too stingy with yields. A higher yield would attract more buyers.
OT: It's a quiet night, so I can go ahead and ask.
I am currently about to be unemployed - my client has given me a few months notice. Having saved like mad these last few years as an IT contractor, I have about .5 mil saved up. I'm in my early 30s with a wife and one year old... won't be making anywhere what I have made in recent years in IT anytime soon. Currently I am a renter and was going to buy - no more of that. My cost of living is of a family making 70k.
How can I best utilize that .5 mil in this horribly low yielding (tax the savers!) environment? What strategies would you take? Currently about 90% cash 10% in oil trusts.
Friday's job numbers, my guess, 625k. But January's I think will be a lot worse, given all of the companies that are laying off employees post Xmas/New Year. I noticed a couple of stocks were up nicely today after preannouncing revenue misses, but they either came in line or beat their EPS estimates. Given how many companies are cutting headcount and spending, will we see more companies miss the top line, but beat the bottom line and see their stocks go up? But I like the piece last week from ML economist that said in a nutshell that he thinks things will get worse because this isn't your typical inventory correction recession and therefore we are still in the early stages. Well I'm off to CES.
Three of the four bund auctions last year would have failed except the Bundesbank bought the unsold bonds, just like today.
Not sure I understand - if the auction doesn't cover, they simply warehouse the unsold Bund and pretend they've been sold, anticipating the ability to sell them out the back door into the secondary market...?
In October 2008, the FASB issued FSP 157-3 Determining the Fair Value of a Financial Asset When the Market for That Asset Is Not Active (FSP 157-3). FSP 157-3 clarifies the application of SFAS No. 157 in a market that is not active, and addresses application issues such as the use of internal assumptions when relevant observable data does not exist, the use of observable market information when the market is not active, and the use of market quotes when assessing the relevance of observable and unobservable data. FSP 157-3 is effective for all periods presented in accordance with SFAS No. 157. The adoption of FSP 157-3 did not have a significant impact on our consolidated financial statements or the fair values of our financial assets and liabilities.
FSP 157-3 comes on the heels of the joint guidance regarding Statement 157 that was issued by the SEC and FASB on September 30. The joint guidance was apparently intended to give companies more flexibility in valuing financial assets in inactive markets. While FSP 157-3 purports to be "consistent with and amplif[y]" that guidance, some observers believe that it does not go far enough in permitting illiquid assets to be valued by means other than the "mark-to-market" principles embodied by Statement 157.
For this reason, on October 13, the American Bankers Association sent a letter to the Securities and Exchange Commission requesting that the SEC override FSP 157-3 and "address in a more meaningful way the problems of using fair value in dysfunctional markets."
Barley-I did look at the yields. 3-4 percent does not cover my expectation of inflation so the real yields are zero to negative over the life of the bunds.
Black Star Ranch - a well paid geek... but those days are ending fast. For many it ended years ago.
Outsider - thanks. I knew this was coming a loong time ago. I was hoping a good yeilds would have kept us a float for many years. It was too much to ask for.
Why do you call our environment "horribly low yielding" when some Treasury yields are still positive? Nominal GDP will likely be negative or only slightly positive for several years, so your share of the GDP pie would increase staying in cash.
Also, consider what ROI you think is appropriate in this environment. What annualized total portfolio return seems reasonable to you? Most people will be lucky to beat cash over the next 5 and 10 years.
Buying and holding this market for capital appreciation is a fools game. Learn to trade; with a good system and money management, it's your best chance for beating cash.
IT - What do you think the market is for your position now? Cut in pay no doubt, but if your living costs are $70k/yr. that's not terribly high. If you could find another job, .5 mil could go a long way in making up the gap until things turn around.
PCA - It's about cashflow now. I don't want the saving to dwindle overtime. I agree, we will be able to buy more with our cash in this environment. So my mostly cash strategy has worked out great for preserving capital and beating the market in the last 5 years !
The news triggered a steep fall in the prices of German government bonds, or Bunds, and a corresponding jump in their long-term yields.
Even though yields for shorter-term Bunds (two years) remain low, indicating confidence in the paper issued by the German government in the short term, worries about escalating state borrowings, and increasing chatter about "quantitative easing" or printing money, has shaken investors' confidence that inflation will stay low.
Not sure I understand - if the auction doesn't cover, they simply warehouse the unsold Bund and pretend they've been sold, anticipating the ability to sell them out the back door into the secondary market... Sick and Tired Dude | 01.07.09 - 10:57 pm | #
Exactly. In the US, the Fed finances Dealer purchases through the alphabet soup discount window programs so the failed auctions aren't obvious. The Germans are just more transparent about their central bank being the bond buyer of last resort.
>>Oil prices are going to oscillate between 20 and 40 dollars for a long time.
I don't doubt that oil prices are going to oscillate between 20 units of real value and 40 units of real value for a long time. Sounds like a plausible assumption.
But do you really mean to imply that the dollar is a unit of real value?
You can't see that with each passing day, the dollar's real status as a unit of fiction becomes more apparent to the whole world?
I wouldn't be surprised to see oil dip into the 20's, but I'd sure want to buy it there. That is a lot closer to its deflationary price than most other things, especially that yellow stuff.
This is part of the basic problem. We have no REAL economy. Shifting money for one pocket to the other, while borrowing the only real capital inflow from China does not make for a healthy economy.
Like Germany we need a healthy and productive manufacturing sector. Not one that consists of just building houses using minimum wage ( often illegal ) labor.
The banks shifted lending from manufacturing to ever more malls and just plain stupid real-estate deals.
Now the HELOC funded bubble has burst we're back to some basics. Manufacturing was offshored to China, Tech has been outsourced to India and the con trick of a financial sector driven economy has been exposed as a fraud.
Perhaps everyone can go work for the government !!
I know a guy that had a "small" family (3-boys)and wife, got totally out of debt, moved to a small town in the desert, BOUGHT a small place for less than 100K, put the wife to work, watched the kids, raised veggies and beef, and lived happily ever-after.
He still wouldn't have done anything different and that was about ten years ago.
Citizen AllenM - Relocation is definitely on our radar. This was one of the advantaging of staying a renter - I am 100% mobile.
I will keep to the current 4% GIC (like CDs) - Currently in Canada. I can't wait until bond auctions fail miserably and yields go up. As long as inflation (CPI) stays reasonable. Too much to ask ?
If you're looking to generate some cash flow, you might want to look at oil/gas pipeline MLPs, making certain they're well capitalized. KMP and MMP are 2 that come to mind, and are in my portfolio. Another company worth a look is O, The Realty Company. Its an operating REIT...well capitalized, with no debt rolling over until 2011...pays monthly, btw...
Black Star Ranch - That's what I'm thinking too... my wife might not like it so much though
poster formerly known as nitpi - Yup. I'm in some oil income trusts that are giving about 20-30% distributions. But I won't Bet the Farm on them yet... just the barn door for now.
Interesting Times - For Canada, to generate cash flow: Try CEW, FTN.PR.A, FIE if you want to tred the market and generate yield. I also bought a boat load of NFI.UN about a month ago. Stay away from XIU.
CR has identified the dirty little secret of our banks. They could not sell CRE paper and so are loaded up as the crash begins. This is going to beat the hell out of the residential paper crash because this hit will be right here in hometown America. The Friday night FDIC pizza business should litterally heat up.
Interesting Times- head for Calgary/Edmonton- the oil patch will be hot again before long.
I would look to rent there after finding a job with one of the major oil companies or service companies- IT is always hiring.
I am sure things are drastically cooling off right now, but with oil back over $50 they will go right back to drilling and making money.
Timber and tourism are pretty dead. Where do you want to live? You could rent in Vancouver and run the Olympic bubble- just get a good lease.
In short, you have a lot of options, play them well.
poster formerly known as nitpi,
KMP and MMP are 2 that come to mind, and are in my portfolio.
Just an honest heads up.
I know you're referring to their cash flow/dividends, and you didn't ask for my opinion, and opinions are like something-or-other that everyone has, but I just took a look at a chart of KMP/MMP for the first time and price wise there's a 99% chance they're going to retest their lows of October '08 at some point in the not-too-distant future, which would mean a loss of 50% or more from current levels.
With seemingly every other REIT out there right now cutting their divi, is there not a significant risk of "O" just deciding to follow the herd in order to conserve cash for a protracted downturn, given the very real possibility of retail occupancies plummeting through the floor (e.g. below the early 90s bust levels of 80% range)? Their stock has already been hammered ... the stigma of a divi cut has to be less now, right? Kind of like safety in the TARP herd.
I dunno, just a thought I had. I was actually studying O and NNN the other day, trying to get my arms around their downside risks. They are heavily exposed to restaurants and retail stores.
@poster
Another company worth a look is O, The Realty Company. Its an operating REIT...well capitalized, with no debt rolling over until 2011...pays monthly, btw...
poster formerly known as nitpi | 01.07.09 - 11:18 pm | #
I haven't bought into the TBT trade yet, and I'll tell you why. The Fed has said they would buy long Treasuries to keep easing below ZIRP, and you have to take them at their face. The Japanese and Chinese will be dumping long Treasuries in the years ahead and the Fed will keep buying them. They've said it, so why fight it? To me, TBT is an end-game strategy. It's what you buy when you think the Fed is folding. They aren't close to folding yet.
I think they will defend long Treasuries from the short end of the curve to the long. In other words, they'll give up on the 30-year bond first, then the 10-year, etc. So, the yield curve will look like a hockey stick in a year or two. The long-end of the curve isn't that important and the Fed has to conserve its ammunition to defend 2-5 year debt, so the U.S. can keep borrowing.
Quantitative easing will take almost all the credibility ammunition the Fed has left, and it will be a long, bitter fight of attrition lasting years. It will never end. This means that the Fed can't keep up its tricks propping up other assets.
To many of us here, there's no doubt at all the NY Fed has been propping up the SPY. They have to give that up. They can't afford it. So, short stocks are not a bad bet.
The yen is a great bet. It's the only major strong currency in the world.
But the best bet of all is PMs and commodities. Today was a nightmare day for PMs and commodities. But I bought more SLW and ventured into DBB (mixed metals) today. They will go through these volatile ups and downs for awhile. But at some point this year, they're gonna soar. Just be patient with PMs and commodities. They are the best way to profit from quant easing, Fed printing, and dollar collapse this year and next.
Barley - Thanks! That's what I'm looking for. I'll check them out tomorrow. Again, I won't bet the farm... but will continue with my current strategy of 80-90% cash.
Citizen AllenM - My client is oil/gas ;-) But yes, opportunities will be still available. It's no where dire right now... but just being prepared.
What is going to replace the USD in the next 3 years Lucifer | 01.07.09 - 11:14 pm | #
No one knows. It could be a variant of barter where a country exports to country Z denominated in X country's currency and then buys imports from X using X's currency. Not efficient, but it will sorta get the job done. After a while, there could be a half a dozen currencies used for trade.
The US dollar's value as a trade currency is dependent on the willingness of others to use it as a unit of account. If other get practice trading in currencies other than US dollars, it's position as the primary trade will erode.
There does not have to be one replacement trade currency. There could be several.
The Europeans, prior to the Euro, traded in numerous currencies and somehow juggled all the exchange rates in their heads. They could do it again, but think in terms of the Euro, Asian currencies, Brazilian Real, US dollar, whatever.
I appreciate the heads-up! Am building cash, and if you're right, would average down. I bought both in Sept, so I'm not doing too badly, in terms of cap loss.
Interesting Times - Word of caution DO NOT go near FTN...looks like a bargian but the fine print states it WONT pay a divi until a certian share price (if memory serves $15.00)...which means this puppy is dead in the water for a few years.
Anybody think oil is going to keep getting cheaper when the dollar falls?
I don't.
Now the beggar thy neighbor begins.
The faster that folks drop their ties to the dollar, the faster they can begin to build their role in the new world economy. We are no longer going to be the center.
Be mindful of just how much internal trade is dollarized within China and Russia. blert | 01.07.09 - 11:29 pm | #
Friend of mine is from Tibet via Nepal. She reports that relatives prefer cash gifts denominated in Euros over Dollar gifts. Don't know if this is a trend.
Yeah, but they're pretty diversified, both by sector and geography. I doubled down a couple of months ago @ $19. (original basis of $23, several years ago).
All the other players, especially the significant ones: CHINA, JAPAN manage their exchange rates and have been making almost all of their profits in the American market.
That is the reason that they continue to accept Treasury paper.
Barley - Thanks. I usually follow for a significant period of time before dipping my toes. I am a very conservative guy. It has worked out great so far. I do gamble with about 5% with put/calls/etf... but that's it.
You know, nobody has been a bigger fan of EEV on this board than me for the whole last year. I made some coin on EEV and EUM (the single short version) in Sept-Nov. and then I lightened up. But I still have a small amount of EEV and a little more EUM. I wished I had more of both today.
But I am going slow back into the double short ETFs. I don't trust this market because there's too much liquidity and manipulation around. I've been targeting Feb-March for the next big down leg in stocks. As we move closer, I'll get more EEV, QID, SRS and TWM.
One reason I'm not more short stocks right now is that I see equal or better value for my money on a risk/reward basis in PMs and commodities.
@ Rich. Been rolling out of all positions taken back when volatility was going through the roof (God, I miss VIX @ 80!) and am looking for the next medium-term swing.
Do you have an opinion on UCD or the other Ultra commod funds? I am extremely aware of the potential "slippage" issues with levered funds, so the question is more along the lines of "is it (trying to) lever the right thing?:"
Turkey sold $1 billion of dollar bonds maturing in 2017, joining a flurry of debt sales by developing nations this week. Turkey sold the notes to yield 5.01 percentage points above Treasuries. The Philippines also sold $1.5 billion of bonds, a day after Brazil and Colombia each tapped international markets for $1 billion.
If the Germans offered a decent yield, then the buyers might have appeared. It worked for the Turks and Fillipinos.
With enough pressure, it's reasonable to expect the Euro to split back into national currencies. blert | 01.07.09 - 11:31 pm | #
Since I don't believe this for a second, would you explain how that would work and how it would come about? How would this logistically work and what are the incentives for those that were to leave?
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) - Thanks. I feel like the last 4 years was preparation for a major test. The test is now here. We all saw this coming miles away.
IF you're willing to gamble 'O' and 'NNN' will continue to pay out dividends, BUT you're concerned about them rolling over (a chart shows the risk is to the downside from here), then SRS would actually be a great hedging vehicle (as it was intended to be - who'd a thunk it?). You could go "delta neutral", protect against capital loss (and appreciation) while (potentially) collecting yield.
They are issued by the various nations and have references as to which central bank issued them.
The market would simply start to discriminate against one or another CB.
The political class would be howling about local unemployment conditions and the need to support the local economy... think Ireland and Spain trying to refloat their bubbles.
The Euro was put together politically, and will break apart politically.
All the other players, especially the significant ones: CHINA, JAPAN manage their exchange rates and have been making almost all of their profits in the American market. blert | 01.07.09 - 11:35 pm | #
I don't think you have your facts together. Did you know that the biggest export market for China is Europe?
[Since I don't believe this for a second, would you explain how that would work and how it would come about? How would this logistically work and what are the incentives for those that were to leave?
RE ]
Why so skeptical. These are sovereign nations, many of which have fought each other in military conflict, sharing a currency. Not like FL & NY. If you for a second don't think the exit plan was already firmly in place before the Euro was hatched, you're delusional.
I updated the chart of local demand situation in Ventura and added some supply data to the chart.
Currently 90% of current pending & contingent properties are under 659k. There is currently 44.6% of inventory above 659k. IMHO, the biggest next leg down will be the above conforming limit properties.
Since I don't believe this for a second, would you explain how that would work and how it would come about? How would this logistically work and what are the incentives for those that were to leave? RE | 01.07.09 - 11:40 pm | # In theory, the Mediterean Eurozone members get tired of the EU central bank's "tight" money policies so they drop out of the Eurozone and make liras and drackmas legal tender again. All their existing bonds would be redenominated in their native currency. Their individual central banks could also monetize their government deficits.
Doubt that it will happen.
It is more likely the Europe will give Greece back to the Turks and Italy back to the Pope.
poster formerly known as nitpi,
Are you a short term trader?
I'm what's called a "swing trader", but in this market that could be 48-72 hours. I don't like to trade in-and-out that often, but if the market gives it to me (long or short) and then gives signals that it's about to reverse, then I'll take the money.
Case in point. Two Monday's ago I took half positions on SPY, QQQQ, and EEM after 3pm on a light volume decline; I took the other half the following morning. By Friday's close they were up anywhere from 8-10% from where I'd bought them; the market broke a previous swing high on dramatically lighter volume, which was an EXIT signal to me. So that was less than 4 market days of owning funds for a quick 2% total return on my account.
And as of Monday I shorted SPY, EEM (via EEV) and XLE (via DUG) and am short a glod stock Newmont Mining (NEM) last Friday. Btw, I posted all of these on here shortly after the trades. So I'm up on these shorts as of now - however, I'm considering holding these funds (esp. EEV) for quite a bit longer, taking profit draw-downs because I see big odds that they'll double in 4-6 weeks. I don't consider that a "short term" trade. I have a wage slave day job that keeps me from gambling away my winnings via day trading, thank goodness.
Outsider- I agree. That's if I can find another job... Ideally, I would like to somehow use the .5 to become even more financially independent. Interesting Times | 01.07.09 - 11:11 pm | #
Where do you live - I ask that because there are a lot of places in America where you could buy a tolerable house for less than $100K with very low taxes & utilities and find ways to make the remaining $400K last a LONG time. Some of those places are hell holes but not all are.
But with $400K as a head start a 'cost free home'... even a 'low wage job' - say $40K per year becomes 'liveable'.
Broward Horne writes:
"Five months ago macdonalds raised the price of my Quarter pounder meal by 7%"
"Tonight it's up an additional 14%"
Yes, but there is no inflation.
Except, apparently, where there is pricing power. If you can't afford McD's, you're basically down to rummaging in the trash. Not that McD's is much better quality-wise.
Thanks...I'm curious....what sort of hardware (puter) do you use....do you use multiple monitors to view various charts? Reason for asking, am getting ready to allocate a few shekels to trading, and need a new puter, anyway, is why I'm asking. I've heard that for charting/trading, a gaming puter works well (high end graphics card, etc...)
Suggest taking out staggered times 90day/120day/360day - gives your option to average with future to capture higher rates Barley | 01.07.09 - 11:15 pm | #
They are issued by the various nations and have references as to which central bank issued them. blert | 01.07.09 - 11:44 pm | #
That is the silliest comment I have heard in a long time. I am aware it made the rounds among the nut cases.
What percentage of commerce is being conducted in bank notes or coins today? Obvious answer right? So then why would origination of Euros make a difference if you can't tell where they originate from in electronic transactions?
Please give me a real reason for why the Eurozone will brake apart not simplistic BS.
I've heard that for charting/trading, a gaming puter works well (high end graphics card, etc...)
Charting etc doesn't put anywhere near the strain on a PC that gaming does. It would actually be hard to buy a current-model PC (other than maybe a NetBook) that doesn't have more than enough oomph.
Now your broadband connection...that could be another issue entirely depending on who is providing it.
I know a guy that had a "small" family (3-boys)and wife, got totally out of debt, moved to a small town in the desert, BOUGHT a small place for less than 100K, put the wife to work, watched the kids, raised veggies and beef, and lived happily ever-after. Black Star Ranch | 01.07.09 - 11:17 pm | #
Don't have to go that extreme - but BSR beat me to the theme.
For comparison, here are yields of other sovereign issuers.
Ten Year Government Bond Spreads Gov't Latest Spread vs Bund Spread vs T-BondsAustralia4.17%+0.97+1.69Austria4.05%+0.85+1.57Belgium4.01%+0.81+1.53Canada2.93%-0.27+0.45Denmark3.48%+0.29+1.00Finland3.90%+0.71+1.42France3.65%+0.46+1.17Germany3.20%0.00+0.72Greece5.29%+2.09+2.81Italy4.43%+1.23+1.95Japan1.28%-1.91-1.20Netherlands3.76%+0.56+1.28New Zealand4.75%+1.55+2.27Norway4.01%+0.82+1.53Portugal4.16%+0.97+1.68Spain4.00%+0.80+1.52Sweden2.66%-0.54+0.18Switzerland2.45%-0.75-0.03UK3.29%+0.10+0.81US2.48%-0.72
I'm serious here (btw, I'm 26 and have been trading for 2 years), but prior to 3 weeks ago when I received my Dell Inspiron 1525 (for a sweet $500), I had been using the same computer (at home) for 6 years. I've mentioned to some people here that my father, in the life insurance business, still has a 1993 Dell desktop running Windows 3.1 and actually uses it in his work.
I place probably 80% of my trades at work, on (sometimes off) breaks. They're standard newish desktops with a reliable fast network. So I'm really low tech here, an account about 50k thanks to savings and capital gains.
Though I take my trading as seriously as if I were managing I.T.'s half million.
If you for a second don't think the exit plan was already firmly in place before the Euro was hatched, you're delusional. bearly | 01.07.09 - 11:48 pm | #
Do you honestly think that newer IT systems in Europe handle multiple Eurozone currencies? I think it is you who is delusional. The Euro is completely ingrained in Western Europe in all facets of life and it would be a monumental task to go back to individual currencies not even mentioning trade disruption.
Good monitors cost money. I use a pair of Viewsonic VP2130b's and a single 3200x1200 desktop spread across both. But you don't have to go that high end to get something that's effective.
And as S&T Dude says, a good broadband connection makes a big difference.
PCA at 26 there was $100 in my account.... I just took a chance, quit my fulltime tech job to become a contractor. Best decision I ever made. Those types of decisions can be made when you're young and have no kids... now it's a different story.
Ty tj. I'm working to make that chart better. I've shown it to some non-technical people and they understood what I meant right away. Most of my other charts I get the eyes glazing over type stuff. I'm going to try and add inventory in if I can get the data set.
Thanks...nice to know I don't need to spend a ton on hardware to be "effective" trading....the dual monitor thing DOES sound like the way to fly, though
In theory, the Mediterean Eurozone members get tired of the EU central bank's "tight" money policies so they drop out of the Eurozone and make liras and drackmas legal tender again. NorkaWest | 01.07.09 - 11:50 pm | #
I assume that you saw my link to Greek interest rates in the early 90s in the last thread (William Poole). Interest rates and inflation exceeded 20% before they committed to the Euro. Italy would face similar problems, there was a study out a few years ago that analyzed it and it concluded that Italy would face at least 4% higher interest rates. If they were to get "tired", it would be a VERY costly getting tired, especially in the present environment.
dryfly - Currently in Toronto. But it's definitely not my home. I can't wait to leave... Interesting Times | 01.07.09 - 11:57 pm | #
Here ya - been there on business many times. Done the 401 from Detroit to Toronto chasing automotive business - yuck. If I were Canadian w/ a young family [almost immigrated there myself in the early 80s] I'd look real hard at the Okanagan Valley in BC. With a $500K head start you could live a very nice life there even if the ongoing job income was less than Toronto, Vancouver, etc.
PCA at 26 there was $100 in my account.... I just took a chance, quit my fulltime tech job to become a contractor. Interesting Times | 01.08.09 - 12:06 am | #
PCA at 26 there was $100 in my account.... I just took a chance, quit my fulltime tech job to become a contractor. Best decision I ever made. Those types of decisions can be made when you're young and have no kids... now it's a different story. Interesting Times | 01.08.09 - 12:06 am | #
I've been a self-employed contractor in B2B marketing & mfg sales & consulting for 25 years - married & raised three kids - it can work you just have to live 'differently'... [never assume your income stream is 'safe']. But when I want to blog or go fishing I blog or go fishing.
If everyone were as prudent as you the U.S. would've never had the spending orgy and asset manias of the last 28 years. What would we have done? Grow organically?!
dryfly - I'm hoping to continue with contracting. Re-education seems to be in the cards. I think a small chunk of the savings will go to getting certified in some of the new software that the leading vendors will be pumping out. Certification is key in enterprise software... but not cheap.
This game can go on as long as government and large organisation keep relying on proprietary ERP / CRM enterprise apps.
Gotta go. Thanks for all the advice and I will continue to post.
Many articles have been written recently about the danger of the Euro failing. I don't buy it but I have wavered at some of the arguments being made.
The one that seems to hold water is the fact nationalism didn't die when the Euro was released. Historic animosities given fuel by economic distress could flare up. Some countries feeling they are bailing out other less wealthy country's bad decisions could lead to a push towards readopting their old currency.
Germany has protested and been very reluctant in giving billions to bail out the banks and other countries. Germany is the manufacturing engine of the EU and might want back the advantage it had with it's own sovereign currency.
Honestly with the amount of turmoil and distress around the world anything is possible and the easiest way to be wrong is to prognosticate.
If everyone were as prudent as you the U.S. would've never had the spending orgy and asset manias of the last 28 years. What would we have done? Grow organically?! Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse | Homepage | 01.08.09 - 12:17 am | #
LOL - we buy some stuff once in a while but you should see our house & cars... tired old complete POSs... not doing my job to make Ben's Inflationary Dreams come true.
Certification is key in enterprise software... but not cheap.
Interesting Times | 01.08.09 - 12:18 am | #
Ya my wife was part of a large SAP implementation - the IT consultants she worked with did A-OK... She is not IT but has become one of her companies SAP 'Power Users'. It's not quite a guarantee she won't get laid off but close.
The Euro is completely ingrained in Western Europe in all facets of life and it would be a monumental task to go back to individual currencies not even mentioning trade disruption.
RE | 01.08.09 - 12:03 am | #
Yet the dollar being devalued or replaced after losing reserve status is utterly believable?
I've been targeting Feb-March for the next big down leg in stocks. As we move closer, I'll get more EEV, QID, SRS and TWM."
Rich, what signals are you monitoring to get the timing of this next let down correct? You must be at least somewhat concerned that it might happen sooner than you thought. Appreciate your insights as always.....
Housing starts turning up is a relative achievement, quite possible in late 2009 if starts go to zero or below in early 2009. Anything is possible in this new economy.
So I went to make a large withdrawal today from my credit union, and what do they give me instead of cash? An IOU from the State of California! The state took my money and replaced it with an IOU. What gives?
OK, so the above incident didn't really happen. But how far can we be if surplus taxes paid to the state can get returned at tax time as an IOU?
Yet the dollar being devalued or replaced after losing reserve status is utterly believable? anon | 01.08.09 - 12:25 am | #
The Dollar losing its reserve currency status has been in process for quite a while. It has been devalued 3 times against "hard" currencies since 1971. It has excellent prospects to be devalued again within the next 24 to 36 months IMO. Why should there be confidence in its status?
Losing status does not happen overnight, it happens by experience.
Proud to announce the new Citi Homeowner Assistance program for eligible borrowers who may be facing financial difficulties but are not yet delinquent.
If you think you are eligible, please call 1-800-MORTGAGE
The Budget Outlook for 2009
The federal fiscal situation in 2009 will be dramatically worse than it was in 2008. Under the assumption that current laws and policies remain in place (that is, not accounting for any new legislation), CBO estimates that the deficit this year will total $1.2 trillion, more than two and a half times the size of last years.
Guess that means no new stimulus package this year. The money has already been spent.
the picture is complicated by the fact that the wealthier half of germany went on a buying frenzy in mediterranean real estate '02-'06. the euro was a big part of this.
the bull case for ewj in the AM is also interesting if anyone wants to share. also, thanks for posting the ucd and dbb tickers, had forgotten what those were.
was lucky enough to dump all my dxo yesterday, also dumped 1/3 of my big JNK position this AM, if anyone cares.
It would be interesting to get the perspective of someone on the ground over there. NorkaWest | 01.08.09 - 12:32 am | #
rent_to_own commented on this a while ago. My experience is from spending 50% of my time in Europe from 2000 through 2005 but much less time since. I have Euro accounts with German and Swiss banks.
"On Wednesday, a bank of six phones at a Sacramento EDD office was occupied by applicants while 15 other people waited in line to use them. Many people spent frustrating hours trying to get through on the lines - even when calling from the phone banks at the state office." http://www.sacbee.com/business/story/1523928.html
bgates writes:
"well executed invasion of Cambodia"
i was always under the impression that it was entirely an aerial affair (and a massive one at that), without boats on the ground. is that mistaken?
Yes you are.
We sent a massive troop sweep into the Parrot's Beak televised nationally, with a presidential address claiming we were invading so that we could leave.
"We sent a massive troop sweep into the Parrot's Beak televised nationally"
interesting. one of these days, i'll finally sit down and read 'bright and shining lie'. that book of the work of photojournalists which came out a decade ago (?) who never made it home is one of the most disturbing books ever published.
Yep, Ambrose is quite well known as an anti Euro fellow. You have to take his opinions, especially regarding the Euro, with a big grain of salt.
http://www.journalisted.com/ambrose-evanspritchard Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is the international business editor of the Daily Telegraph. A long-time opponent of the EU's constitition and monetary union, he was the Telegraph's Europe correspondent in Brussels from 1999 to 2004.
I was always under the impression that it was entirely an aerial affair (and a massive one at that), without boots [ed.] on the ground. is that mistaken?
Absolutely. Muc Hoa was my location. It was one of several points on the border. There's a large memorial there now that they built some years later.
He's right on Nixon/Cambodia. The Nixon quote, as broadcast...
"To protect our men who are in Vietnam and to guarantee the continued success of our withdrawal and Vietnamization programs, I have concluded that the time has come for action."
I'm not making that up.
blert | 01.08.09 - 12:55 am |
I don't remember the Presidential address part - or any TV for that matter. What I do recall from Stars & Stripes is Nixon quoted as saying we were just chasing them around in the jungle and, you know, there aren't any signs where one country begins and the other ends and all that sort of BS.
wow, i just now discovered that you can't enter cambodia without going through laos. you could fill millions of phone books with my ignorance about SE asia.
Earlier this week, Vietnamese authorities said the 13-year-old girl's younger sister was in hospital with an H5N1 virus infection.
Both girls had eaten duck and chicken raised on the family farm, Mau said.
The 13-year-old developed a high fever and severe cough on Dec. 25 and died in the district hospital on Jan. 2, Mau said.
After her 8-year-old sister was confirmed to be infected with H5N1, about 50 children with flu symptoms were brought in by nervous parents in the area but tests for avian influenza were negative on all of them, she said.
I think TJ was being sarcastic with the "nut job". anon | 01.08.09 - 1:00 am | #
I agree but I apply that label somewhat generally to what the Telegraph says but especially to Ambrose. Please give me a credible less biased source for that "information".
bgates writes:
wow, i just now discovered that you can't enter cambodia without going through laos. you could fill millions of phone books with my ignorance about SE asia.
I hope that's sarcasm.
The Parrot's Beak is the border area through which the Mekong flows into Vietnam.
Nixon and MACV were convinced that they could zap COSVN in the Beak.
And COSVN was there. They just bobbed and weaved out of the way.
Not too hard to do. the personal secretary to the President of South Vietnam was an agent for the North!
"I'd look real hard at the Okanagan Valley in BC. With a $500K head start you could live a very nice life there..."
The Okanagan is Canada's equivalent to Phoenix, except it's worse. The real estate bubble has only just popped, thus many multi-family and commercial projects are still under construction. The excess of residential inventory (30 months or more at current rates of sale) means that prices will fall, but the locals have only just begun to consider that they may be facing a Wile E. Coyote moment. Prices have dropped slightly, but the real carnage will be in the next few years.
In addition to this real estate disaster, the major employers in the area (forest industries) are in the middle of a crisis of their own, with declining markets, unfavourable exchange rates, reduced access to credit, and a pine-beetle infestation that can easily be seen from space. The only glass-plant in Canada (located near Vernon) closed its doors permanently in October, and local boat and RV manufacturers are either reducing output, or shutting down. There is no heavy industry, and what light industry there was has left in the past few years.
Local restaurants are now in trouble, and last Saturday evening, I noticed several of them literally only had a handful of customers during the dinner hour.
I'd wait at least a few years before considering a move to the Okanagan Valley.
not at all, i know the geography and history of europe and latin america quite well for a gringo, but almost nothing about the layout of asia. at least i can correctly identify all of the major languages of asia when written.
it is confusing - the events of 1970 and 1973 seem to be the difference between a somewhat earnest (if stupid) attempt to win a war versus large-scale terrorism.
One of the guys working on the basement project was a subcontractor from Holland, with office here and also in Holland (huh? go figure...).
Loves US and hates politicians and one day, conversation turned to Euro/Germany.
Per him, Germany has had hands full with taking in E Germany post '90/'91 and the folks were not keen on also having to take in the med/latin contingents. They ain't pleased...
Perhaps you could give me a list of media sources you find acceptable. It would make the search easier. anon | 01.08.09 - 1:08 am | #
Would you find a local one please, like from Germany, since that is the subject of the rejection? As I said I spend significant time on the ground and read the local papers daily. I can promise you that no Euro I ever spent was ever inspected as to its origin.
rent_to-own, who lives in Germany right now, also commented on the subject and called it politely ridiculous. I'll do a search if I find his post but I'm certain some here remember it.
yes, they resented carrying the load for the stupid, lazy ossies (their sentiment, not mine). i could easily see that sentiment translating to their european brethren in sunnier climes.
The euro may be soaring in value against the dollar but more and more Germans would gladly ditch the currency. The main reason for this dissatisfaction is a misguided tendency to blame it for inflation. Another reason, of course, might be nostalgia for the deutsche mark.
Breaking News >> Police Say Three Rockets Fired From Lebanon Strike Northern Israel
More on Topic
"This is shockingly Awful"
Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York
"If the recent relationship between the ADP numbers after their recent revisions and the official payroll data holds, then we should expect a number of about minus-700,000 on Friday, the biggest drop in 59 years."
Seems like more news in one day than in past years
Several lightly wounded as rockets hit near Nahariya
Explosions were heard in the western Galilee, in Israel's north on Thursday morning.
Channel 10 reported that the explosions were the result of four Katyusha rockets.
The IDF said the incident was being examined, Israel Radio reported.
Magen David Adom said that several people were lightly wounded near Nahariya.
Even if the explosions were the result of rocket fire, there was no certainty whether these rockets were fired by Hizbullah.
Hizbullah has so far refrained from opening a front on Israel's north even though it has threatened to do so since the beginning of Israel's Operation Cast Lead 13 days ago.
How can I best utilize that .5 mil in this horribly low yielding (tax the savers!) environment? What strategies would you take? Currently about 90% cash 10% in oil trusts.
Thanks!
Interesting Times | 01.07.09 - 10:54 pm | #
I suggest moving to Palestine, TX where my parents retired over 20 years ago. Here is a link to a $112K home for sale. My cousin, George McIntyre, is a long time Century 21 (Pace McDonald) realtor there. You could work in the Palestine or Tyler area or commute to the Dallas area. My sister works for the State Atty. General's office in Tyler. Home prices are higher in Tyler than Palestine but still reasonable. Tyler has a bigger employment base. - real estate - REALTOR.com®
The dollar is toast, the Euro will reign supreme. There is dissatisfaction in the EU among the different governments but the center will hold and they will come out of this much better economically.
My original post doubted the assertion the Euro would crumble but it is showing some cracks like the entire worlds fiat currency system.
Tomorrow is a mystery.
I would have never believed the majority of circumstances the last 8 years have created.
Oakland riots...similar to the circumstances that started the Greece riots.
The BART officer thought he had his taser. After watching the video of the shooting it is the only explanation. Majority of law enforcement agencies require you to put your taser on the opposite side from your gun. Muscle memory from firearms training becomes almost instinctual.
The dollar is toast, the Euro will reign supreme. There is dissatisfaction in the EU among the different governments but the center will hold and they will come out of this much better economically. anon | 01.08.09 - 1:25 am | #
I don't it see that way. I actually don't think that the Euro will replace the Dollar as THE reserve currency. I simply think that the Dollar will lose its exclusivity.
Cracks in currencies nowadays are simply reflective of the cracks in the world's financial system which lead to cracks in the social fabric.
IMO all currencies will be debased in the next few years in order to paper over the major economic issues that the world faces. Devaluations will happen for very different reasons, some forced and some voluntary.
However, I am quite certain that the Dollar will lose even more of its reputation. As NorkaWest mentioned above, we will likely see trade in many more currencies and under barter arrangements.
The last 8 years have been a disaster for the U.S. I still believe that the decision to invade Iraq will be the marker that historians use to denote the beginning of the end of the American empire.
My wife got notice today that Oregon has cut funding to schools. Sooo, the county has a choice: lay off fifteen teachers, or give everyone two days off without pay.
That's a loss of 1% of annual income.
I expected this sort of thing, but the rapid arrival surprises even me.
wow
that's all i'm saying
What kind of leverage does a 1.5% loss destroy all capital for those holding CMBS?
About what most financial ponzi shemes...erm...institutions have, I reckon.
Nostrovia,
And that would explain why two of our larger local banks TARPed for about $300M apiece.
wow is right
williamsburg brooklyn may shut down a couple just on its own. C&D postings from mid-size and EM banks showed up here last summer.
CR.....
Nice to have you back - hope you enjoyed your vacation and keep up the GREAT work.
No disrespect CR - the real story is failed debt offering as of late. Simply put, lots of folks looking for money and not being able to find it. Some are crowded out others dont want to pay a premium.
This is classic credit freeze.
The German government failed to cover a 10 year Bund auction today (Wednesday) and one reader mentioned this in a comment an unrelated post
and the P&G story...
.....will a failed debt offering here in the US make the press?
The German government failed to cover a 10 year Bund auction today (Wednesday) and one reader mentioned this in a comment an unrelated post
and the P&G story...
I wonder who that reader was...
homedad43-
Yep, I'm guessing your including Umpqua as one of those. That's my bank and now I have something to say to them when I go in besides the usual "Are you guys ready for the bank runs?".
They think i'm nuts and i'm fine with that.
Everyone, have a good evening.
Must devote some quality time to Excel.
Do we know how much $$ evaporated in the dotcom bust, compared with how much has evaporated in this crisisso far? Just wonder if we've surpassed 2000 losses yet.
Outsider.....
Heard your comment re: middle boys being a "challenge" - Isn't THAT the genetic truth of all parenting truths!
somebody is making $$$, my citicard interest just went up to 25%
Which thread has the P&G story?
Can't keep up with all the comments.
it doesn't end, it has more tentacles than 99% of TPTB ever imagined. And those tentacles reach deeper than ever thought and they are wrapped around more pieces of the economy and population than anyone ever thought. It's a chain, it's all connected. When you rush to strengthen a weak link, then the link right next to strains and needs reinforcement...ad infinitum ad absurdium.....ad nauseaum.
write downs like that hurt real bad in leveraged models. typical banking is about 10:1 leverage IIRC. so a 10% writeoff can BK you. a 2% write down takes out 20% loaning capability. in theory.
Outsider, if memory serves, losses on the household side are now at least triple what they were in the dotcom bust.
he German government failed to cover a 10 year Bund auction today (Wednesday) and one reader mentioned this in a comment an unrelated post
Barley | 01.07.09 - 10:25 pm | #
Germans should have offered a higher yield. With more yield, they could be a destination for a US Dollar to Euros carry trade.
Black Star Ranch | 01.07.09 - 10:30 pm | #
Certainly is. Another couple truths I've learned is that teaching kids critical thinking skills when they're toddlers is great until they hit around age 13. Then you want them to just go with your program. Ditto to the wonderful joys of parenthood making your life full comments a few threads back. I don't think they're kids have hit the "terrible teens."
Oh yes. I have aged.
I dare anyone to go long SPG.
Of course, a higher yield would play havoc with the capital ratios of their financial institutions when Bunds are marked-to-market at a higher yield.
...there are no better factors for premature aging then raising kids....
"I predict Bank Failure Fridays will be even busier in 2009 than 2008."
My brother's new FDIC call center job is depending on it!
Outsider- I don't think they're kids have hit the "terrible teens."
I never had that problem with my son, but the fact that he was forty when born may have had something to do with it.
Nevermind. Found it (P&G) two threads back.
LOL....good one, mp....
Germans should have offered a higher yield. With more yield, they could be a destination for a US Dollar to Euros carry trade.
NorkaWest
Is it possible that government debt (either Us or German) costs more than corporate debt.
The US has a massive roll over in 2009. What happens if there are no takers and yes they raise the yield to say 4%, maybe 8% (corporate levels).
I also forgot to mention that he tossed a small briefcase from his mother's womb shortly before birth.
Now, that was startling.
mp - too funny
alcoa is worth 8.7 billion, apple is worth 81 billion.
apple has $30B in cash - alcoa has $10B in debt, less revenue, and lower margins.
a lot of sliding to be done, for sure, but likely quite a bit more for AA than for AAPL.
mp - You know what Bill Cosby says. Parents of one child don't count.
Outsider.....
Heard your comment re: middle boys being a "challenge" - Isn't THAT the genetic truth of all parenting truths!
Black Star Ranch | 01.07.09 - 10:30 pm | #
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I missed that thread somehow.
Yep, the middle one - 12 y/o on cusp of puberty - is unbelievable.
That rushing sound you hear is testosterone flushing through the pipes.
Sheesh.
I also forgot to mention that he tossed a small briefcase from his mother's womb shortly before birth.
mp | 01.07.09 - 10:37 pm | #
Was Alex Keaton his TV roll model?
Black Star Ranch writes:
...there are no better factors for premature aging then raising kids....
Black Star Ranch | 01.07.09 - 10:35 pm | #
Ah-yup.
Yawn.. Wake me when mentioning CRE causes apoplexy..
On a related note, you can get a 8 person fully furnished office with all kinds of services in Calgary, Canada for 1,100 per month with next day possesion. What is curious about this and related office CRE in Calgary is that this office suite is in the most prestigious office building in Calgary - Bankers Hall (the newer twin tower).
This same CRE leasing entity has similar and much larger office suites in even newer buildings in Calgary, a place that was supposed to have a 6 year CRE shortage last year.
And Calgary is still doing quite OK, jobwise.
Oh.. And they also rent very nice 20 person conference rooms with all equipment and teleconferencing facilities for 55 $/hr.
It is cheaper and much nicer than a motel for a meeting with an escort and the view is awesome.
homedad43 - they have meds for that!
homedad......
they get better at 30 nowadays. Used to be 20.
Typical joke from 12 y/o.
Why do Canadian women prefer hockey pucks to tampons?
They last for three periods.
Really.
homedad43 - they have meds for that!
Barley | 01.07.09 - 10:40 pm | #
For the child or for the parent?
Outsider:
Does beer qualify for the parent?
Outsider - Both...uppers for the parents and downers for the kids.
Somehow, he's starting to remind me of Lucifer.
homedad43 | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 10:42 pm | #
Oh my gosh. Are you watching me thru a webcam?
Does beer qualify for the parent?
homedad43
Yes if it is morphed into a "Boiler maker"
Had one of these in Univ. never again.
there has to be some estimate of what $ amount of debt, property value, CDS contracts, etc. needs to be written down to bring the price in line with its value. WTF is that $ amount? $2T? $20T? $200T? at some point we have to have some idea of what the market value impact of all this is. hasn't world equity value dropped about $50T so far?
anyone have answers? beuller? beuller?
I also forgot to mention that he tossed a small briefcase from his mother's womb shortly before birth.
Now, that was startling.
mp | 01.07.09 - 10:37 pm | #
Is this the same mp who, a few days ago, suggested pay-to-play CR due to too much noise?
Et tu, mp?
craig - you seek an answer grounded in reality. It does not exist.
I have been surprised at the ability of the banks to shuffle and reclassify the debt. Truthfully, I didn't expect them to be able to hold out this long.
Of course, CRE is much more of a political animal and so, there is a lot more give on the forbearance side of accounting than on the consumer/ retail side.
The balance sheet shuffle will continue...
Until it can't anymore.
The German government failed to cover a 10 year Bund auction today (Wednesday) and one reader mentioned this in a comment an unrelated post.
Jesus Christ, shouldn't that be huge news? Last time I looked the risk premie on Bund was LOWER than that for T-bonds.
For all you food coop members, organic farmers and livestock producers.
NWV News -- Ohio AG Dept. & State's Top Cop Sued For Food Co-Op Raid
Bund was LOWER than that for T-bonds.
Sick and Tired Dude
You are sharp. And that my friend is the story.
.....LOL......you know, there's no pretty way to disguise an empty strip mall. So much combined expense, it seems it might be disadvantageous to have it half filled....??
Calgary has so many CRE project from 2005-2007 that they might just end up with a half Potemkin downtown, not to mention suburban CRE.
Iz reads this for fixed stuff. I am not a paper person but I love to learn:
[hat tip]
"For all you food coop members, organic farmers and livestock producers."
YES!!!!! It's about time someone took them to task!
In his final speech scheduled as Treasury secretary, Henry M. Paulson Jr. yesterday proposed replacing mortgage-finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with highly regulated utilities that would play a more limited role in making money available for home loans.
Paulson Floats Idea Of Mortgage 'Utilities' - washingtonpost.com
This guy just needs to go and hide.
OT
were going in...
doug krisner over at marketplace (npr) reports that crude oil price dropped 12% today... the biggest one day drop in 7 years, due to high inventories
mock turtle...luvin it
sold HOU (Toronto) yesterday
Mock turtle,
Oil prices are going to oscillate between 20 and 40 dollars for a long time.
German Bond Auctions failed 9 times last year, so news isn't new. I imagine the yield needs to go up or screw it and just print money.
Oil prices are going to oscillate between 20 and 40 dollars for a long time.
Lucifer
I might say between 40-60 for some time. At 20 you shutter the prospect. This being said, NatGas is so cheap.
I am confident that the FDIC under Sheila Bair has all the answers. After all, when the FDIC took over IndyMac she was able to fix the foreclosure problem for all of its customers quickly. Wasn't she?
It is all very simple really. All we need to do is change the loan terms using a simple universal formula.
And once again, I propose the 0% interest-only loan as the solution.
I am confident that Bernanke and Bair will converge towards my solution in due course.
Remember where you heard it first.
Jesus Christ, shouldn't that be huge news? Last time I looked the risk premie on Bund was LOWER than that for T-bonds.
Sick and Tired Dude | 01.07.09 - 10:46 pm | #
Not really, it is old news. Three of the four bund auctions last year would have failed except the Bundesbank bought the unsold bonds, just like today.
The Germans are just too stingy with yields. A higher yield would attract more buyers.
sue take a look at the yelds offered...might change your mind
Barley,
I am choosing the lower side of 40, you can take the higher side of 40.
OT: It's a quiet night, so I can go ahead and ask.
I am currently about to be unemployed - my client has given me a few months notice. Having saved like mad these last few years as an IT contractor, I have about .5 mil saved up. I'm in my early 30s with a wife and one year old... won't be making anywhere what I have made in recent years in IT anytime soon. Currently I am a renter and was going to buy - no more of that. My cost of living is of a family making 70k.
How can I best utilize that .5 mil in this horribly low yielding (tax the savers!) environment? What strategies would you take? Currently about 90% cash 10% in oil trusts.
Thanks!
Friday's job numbers, my guess, 625k. But January's I think will be a lot worse, given all of the companies that are laying off employees post Xmas/New Year. I noticed a couple of stocks were up nicely today after preannouncing revenue misses, but they either came in line or beat their EPS estimates. Given how many companies are cutting headcount and spending, will we see more companies miss the top line, but beat the bottom line and see their stocks go up? But I like the piece last week from ML economist that said in a nutshell that he thinks things will get worse because this isn't your typical inventory correction recession and therefore we are still in the early stages. Well I'm off to CES.
NorkaWest - look at the yields and read the bit about 5 year revisions...still they were shunned
Just hold your breath till tomorrow's 10-Yr Note Auction. Then we'll see if we are still in Kansas or already marching toward the Río de la Plata.
Dave of SV writes:
Friday's job numbers, my guess, 625k
I'd say 986k is much closer to the final num.
Three of the four bund auctions last year would have failed except the Bundesbank bought the unsold bonds, just like today.
Not sure I understand - if the auction doesn't cover, they simply warehouse the unsold Bund and pretend they've been sold, anticipating the ability to sell them out the back door into the secondary market...?
At least 1.5 million jobs lost by mid March (official numbers) probably closer to 2.5 in reality.
In October 2008, the FASB issued FSP 157-3 Determining the Fair Value of a Financial Asset When the Market for That Asset Is Not Active (FSP 157-3). FSP 157-3 clarifies the application of SFAS No. 157 in a market that is not active, and addresses application issues such as the use of internal assumptions when relevant observable data does not exist, the use of observable market information when the market is not active, and the use of market quotes when assessing the relevance of observable and unobservable data. FSP 157-3 is effective for all periods presented in accordance with SFAS No. 157. The adoption of FSP 157-3 did not have a significant impact on our consolidated financial statements or the fair values of our financial assets and liabilities.
"Et tu, mp?"
Guilty as charged.
Have a good evening.
Interesting Times
How old are you?
"Et tu, mp?"
Guilty as charged.
Have a good evening.
mp | 01.07.09 - 10:59 pm |
It wasn't your fault mp. Black Star Ranch started it.
Black Star Ranch - early 30s.
FSP 157-3 comes on the heels of the joint guidance regarding Statement 157 that was issued by the SEC and FASB on September 30. The joint guidance was apparently intended to give companies more flexibility in valuing financial assets in inactive markets. While FSP 157-3 purports to be "consistent with and amplif[y]" that guidance, some observers believe that it does not go far enough in permitting illiquid assets to be valued by means other than the "mark-to-market" principles embodied by Statement 157.
For this reason, on October 13, the American Bankers Association sent a letter to the Securities and Exchange Commission requesting that the SEC override FSP 157-3 and "address in a more meaningful way the problems of using fair value in dysfunctional markets."
....LOL...It's all MY fault, mp....I'm just an talkative old guy...
Mr. Beach wrote | 01.07.09 - 10:53 pm |
"And once again, I propose the 0% interest-only loan as the solution.
I am confident that Bernanke and Bair will converge towards my solution in due course.
Remember where you heard it first.
maybe first...i proposed negative interest rates some time ago
you borrow money from the treasury and they pay you a bonus of one or two percent of principal if you spend it, right, quick, soon, and in a hurry
.....what specifically is an IT contractor??
Interesting Times - Sorry this has hit your family. You know plenty of us will be right behind you, if not already there.
an "IT" contractor is like the "it" girl in high school but even more "it" because the "it" is capitalized! everyone wanted to date the "it" girl.
China finds no bird flu outbreak after new death
ya right
China finds no bird flu outbreak after new death
| Reuters
Barley-I did look at the yields. 3-4 percent does not cover my expectation of inflation so the real yields are zero to negative over the life of the bunds.
Black Star Ranch - a well paid geek... but those days are ending fast. For many it ended years ago.
Outsider - thanks. I knew this was coming a loong time ago. I was hoping a good yeilds would have kept us a float for many years. It was too much to ask for.
Interesting Times,
Why do you call our environment "horribly low yielding" when some Treasury yields are still positive? Nominal GDP will likely be negative or only slightly positive for several years, so your share of the GDP pie would increase staying in cash.
Also, consider what ROI you think is appropriate in this environment. What annualized total portfolio return seems reasonable to you? Most people will be lucky to beat cash over the next 5 and 10 years.
Buying and holding this market for capital appreciation is a fools game. Learn to trade; with a good system and money management, it's your best chance for beating cash.
>Oil prices are going to oscillate between 20 and 40 dollars for a long time.
Go ahead and bet the farm on it. I dare you.
IT - What do you think the market is for your position now? Cut in pay no doubt, but if your living costs are $70k/yr. that's not terribly high. If you could find another job, .5 mil could go a long way in making up the gap until things turn around.
PCA - It's about cashflow now. I don't want the saving to dwindle overtime. I agree, we will be able to buy more with our cash in this environment. So my mostly cash strategy has worked out great for preserving capital and beating the market in the last 5 years !
Don't be fooled by the yield!!!!
The news triggered a steep fall in the prices of German government bonds, or Bunds, and a corresponding jump in their long-term yields.
Even though yields for shorter-term Bunds (two years) remain low, indicating confidence in the paper issued by the German government in the short term, worries about escalating state borrowings, and increasing chatter about "quantitative easing" or printing money, has shaken investors' confidence that inflation will stay low.
Not sure I understand - if the auction doesn't cover, they simply warehouse the unsold Bund and pretend they've been sold, anticipating the ability to sell them out the back door into the secondary market...
Sick and Tired Dude | 01.07.09 - 10:57 pm | #
Exactly. In the US, the Fed finances Dealer purchases through the alphabet soup discount window programs so the failed auctions aren't obvious. The Germans are just more transparent about their central bank being the bond buyer of last resort.
If oil prices remain above 50 $, we will a very nasty depression.. yes, a very nasty depression.
>>Oil prices are going to oscillate between 20 and 40 dollars for a long time.
I don't doubt that oil prices are going to oscillate between 20 units of real value and 40 units of real value for a long time. Sounds like a plausible assumption.
But do you really mean to imply that the dollar is a unit of real value?
You can't see that with each passing day, the dollar's real status as a unit of fiction becomes more apparent to the whole world?
Outsider- I agree. That's if I can find another job... Ideally, I would like to somehow use the .5 to become even more financially independent.
NorkaWest - I'm with you on that one!
Ask me for a 10year and I'd want 7-8.
Well all for now. Night all.
....What if they DON'T turn around anytime soon?
NIKKEI down only 2.71%
Go ahead and bet the farm on it. I dare you.
rich
best line all day! Thanks rich.
Interesting Times-
go conservative with CDs in four different banks with about 1 year-
should get you 4% on your money- soooo that is only 20k.
You will have to consider a cheaper lifestyle until you can pick up work.
Where you are located will dictate many options.
Here in Phoenix I would advise leaving- there will be nothing but misery here at ground zero of the real estate bubble.
Someday this war's gonna end...
I wouldn't be surprised to see oil dip into the 20's, but I'd sure want to buy it there. That is a lot closer to its deflationary price than most other things, especially that yellow stuff.
Rich,
What is going to replace the USD in the next 3 years?
....What if they DON'T turn around anytime soon?
Black Star Ranch | 01.07.09 - 11:12 pm | #
For him I mean. Turn around for him.
The Germans are just more transparent about their central bank being the bond buyer of last resort.
@ Norka - many thanks for illuminating. I couldn't quite connect the trifecta of:
(1) offered yield of 3.75
(2) auctioned yield of 3.12
(3) 1/3 of offering not taken
But that makes more sense now.
Citizen AllenM writes:
Interesting Times-
go conservative with CDs in four different banks with about 1 year-
should get you 4% on your money
Suggest taking out staggered times
90day/120day/360day - gives your option to average with future to capture higher rates
Lucifer,canned Tuna will replace the USD.
A couple of months old, but for those who haven't seen it yet ...
Page Not Found | The Onion - America's Finest News Source
This is part of the basic problem. We have no REAL economy. Shifting money for one pocket to the other, while borrowing the only real capital inflow from China does not make for a healthy economy.
Like Germany we need a healthy and productive manufacturing sector. Not one that consists of just building houses using minimum wage ( often illegal ) labor.
The banks shifted lending from manufacturing to ever more malls and just plain stupid real-estate deals.
Now the HELOC funded bubble has burst we're back to some basics. Manufacturing was offshored to China, Tech has been outsourced to India and the con trick of a financial sector driven economy has been exposed as a fraud.
Perhaps everyone can go work for the government !!
Wow!!!
Bloomberg is now showing a new embedded component below the yield curve which provides a range for negative yields! Wow baby!!!
Bloomberg.com:
Government Bonds
They are doing this for all markets and Germany looks to be winning the race to the bottom, thus far ...
(¯♥'¯)
.¸.´ ¸.´¸.*¨) (¸.´ (¸.
IT....
I know a guy that had a "small" family (3-boys)and wife, got totally out of debt, moved to a small town in the desert, BOUGHT a small place for less than 100K, put the wife to work, watched the kids, raised veggies and beef, and lived happily ever-after.
He still wouldn't have done anything different and that was about ten years ago.
Lucifer, we keep the dollar for the next three years.
When you see a five percent or greater drop in a week in the value of the dollar, then you know the end is near.
Call them new dollars.
Or continentals.
Then you know the end is nigh.
But for right now, fear rules the world- and the fearful are buying treasuries.
Someday this war's gonna end...
....btw, he used to be a builder - closed up his biz and moved from SoCal
Citizen AllenM - Relocation is definitely on our radar. This was one of the advantaging of staying a renter - I am 100% mobile.
I will keep to the current 4% GIC (like CDs) - Currently in Canada. I can't wait until bond auctions fail miserably and yields go up. As long as inflation (CPI) stays reasonable. Too much to ask ?
B"ut for right now, fear rules the world- and the fearful are buying treasuries"
Its called a bubble. Let is blowup.
Interesting Times,
If you're looking to generate some cash flow, you might want to look at oil/gas pipeline MLPs, making certain they're well capitalized. KMP and MMP are 2 that come to mind, and are in my portfolio. Another company worth a look is O, The Realty Company. Its an operating REIT...well capitalized, with no debt rolling over until 2011...pays monthly, btw...
What is going to replace the USD in the next 3 years?
~~~~
barter ...
Bloomberg is now showing a new embedded component below the yield curve which provides a range for negative yields!
Dude, take a closer look, that negative "embedded component" is showing that day's yield change across durations.
Black Star Ranch - That's what I'm thinking too... my wife might not like it so much though
poster formerly known as nitpi - Yup. I'm in some oil income trusts that are giving about 20-30% distributions. But I won't Bet the Farm on them yet... just the barn door for now.
"barter"
....6-tomatoes will still get you 4-steaks or a box of 9mm ammo...
Interesting Times - For Canada, to generate cash flow: Try CEW, FTN.PR.A, FIE if you want to tred the market and generate yield. I also bought a boat load of NFI.UN about a month ago. Stay away from XIU.
CR has identified the dirty little secret of our banks. They could not sell CRE paper and so are loaded up as the crash begins. This is going to beat the hell out of the residential paper crash because this hit will be right here in hometown America. The Friday night FDIC pizza business should litterally heat up.
Starting a sentence with dude marginalizes anything that follows.
Brings a smile every time when the sentence is spot on as well.
Interesting Times- head for Calgary/Edmonton- the oil patch will be hot again before long.
I would look to rent there after finding a job with one of the major oil companies or service companies- IT is always hiring.
I am sure things are drastically cooling off right now, but with oil back over $50 they will go right back to drilling and making money.
Timber and tourism are pretty dead. Where do you want to live? You could rent in Vancouver and run the Olympic bubble- just get a good lease.
In short, you have a lot of options, play them well.
Someday this war's gonna end...
poster formerly known as nitpi,
KMP and MMP are 2 that come to mind, and are in my portfolio.
Just an honest heads up.
I know you're referring to their cash flow/dividends, and you didn't ask for my opinion, and opinions are like something-or-other that everyone has, but I just took a look at a chart of KMP/MMP for the first time and price wise there's a 99% chance they're going to retest their lows of October '08 at some point in the not-too-distant future, which would mean a loss of 50% or more from current levels.
Interesting Times,
Not talking CanRoys (have a couple of those, too). They're tied too closely to the price of oil/gas. Pipeines are more like a utility.
With seemingly every other REIT out there right now cutting their divi, is there not a significant risk of "O" just deciding to follow the herd in order to conserve cash for a protracted downturn, given the very real possibility of retail occupancies plummeting through the floor (e.g. below the early 90s bust levels of 80% range)? Their stock has already been hammered ... the stigma of a divi cut has to be less now, right? Kind of like safety in the TARP herd.
I dunno, just a thought I had. I was actually studying O and NNN the other day, trying to get my arms around their downside risks. They are heavily exposed to restaurants and retail stores.
@poster
Another company worth a look is O, The Realty Company. Its an operating REIT...well capitalized, with no debt rolling over until 2011...pays monthly, btw...
poster formerly known as nitpi | 01.07.09 - 11:18 pm | #
"You could rent in Vancouver"
Been there done that on visits. A waste hole of silly people.
IT, keep us posted.
I haven't bought into the TBT trade yet, and I'll tell you why. The Fed has said they would buy long Treasuries to keep easing below ZIRP, and you have to take them at their face. The Japanese and Chinese will be dumping long Treasuries in the years ahead and the Fed will keep buying them. They've said it, so why fight it? To me, TBT is an end-game strategy. It's what you buy when you think the Fed is folding. They aren't close to folding yet.
I think they will defend long Treasuries from the short end of the curve to the long. In other words, they'll give up on the 30-year bond first, then the 10-year, etc. So, the yield curve will look like a hockey stick in a year or two. The long-end of the curve isn't that important and the Fed has to conserve its ammunition to defend 2-5 year debt, so the U.S. can keep borrowing.
Quantitative easing will take almost all the credibility ammunition the Fed has left, and it will be a long, bitter fight of attrition lasting years. It will never end. This means that the Fed can't keep up its tricks propping up other assets.
To many of us here, there's no doubt at all the NY Fed has been propping up the SPY. They have to give that up. They can't afford it. So, short stocks are not a bad bet.
The yen is a great bet. It's the only major strong currency in the world.
But the best bet of all is PMs and commodities. Today was a nightmare day for PMs and commodities. But I bought more SLW and ventured into DBB (mixed metals) today. They will go through these volatile ups and downs for awhile. But at some point this year, they're gonna soar. Just be patient with PMs and commodities. They are the best way to profit from quant easing, Fed printing, and dollar collapse this year and next.
CMBX index charts seem to be making a turn back up after pulling back from Nov & leveling for coupla weeks.
CMBX-NA-AAA 5
Barley - Thanks! That's what I'm looking for. I'll check them out tomorrow. Again, I won't bet the farm... but will continue with my current strategy of 80-90% cash.
Citizen AllenM - My client is oil/gas ;-) But yes, opportunities will be still available. It's no where dire right now... but just being prepared.
Starting a sentence with dude marginalizes anything that follows.
Hey man, gotta challenge The Man's assumptions, you know?
And pass the dutchie already...
What is going to replace the USD in the next 3 years
Lucifer | 01.07.09 - 11:14 pm | #
No one knows. It could be a variant of barter where a country exports to country Z denominated in X country's currency and then buys imports from X using X's currency. Not efficient, but it will sorta get the job done. After a while, there could be a half a dozen currencies used for trade.
The US dollar's value as a trade currency is dependent on the willingness of others to use it as a unit of account. If other get practice trading in currencies other than US dollars, it's position as the primary trade will erode.
There does not have to be one replacement trade currency. There could be several.
The Europeans, prior to the Euro, traded in numerous currencies and somehow juggled all the exchange rates in their heads. They could do it again, but think in terms of the Euro, Asian currencies, Brazilian Real, US dollar, whatever.
rich writes:
I haven't bought into the TBT trade yet
Have you bought into the EEV trade yet?
Jeez fogot about O. Thanks for that RhodesianGreenbackinAZ. Let me take a look tomorrow.
PCA,
I appreciate the heads-up! Am building cash, and if you're right, would average down. I bought both in Sept, so I'm not doing too badly, in terms of cap loss.
hat is going to replace the USD in the next 3 years?
Be mindful of just how much internal trade is dollarized within China and Russia.
What is going to replace the USD in the next 3 years
~~~
Whatever OPEC will accept. Most countries import oil.
Outsider - for sure. I will continue to post here. What a great bunch of guys (and a few gals).
Outsider - for sure. I will continue to post here. What a great bunch of guys (and a few gals).
With enough pressure, it's reasonable to expect the Euro to split back into national currencies.
That's what makes the Euro a poor replacement for the USD.
The gals are outnumbered 30 to 1 but still outsmart the guys most of the time.
What is going to replace the USD in the next 3 years
Lucifer | 01.07.09 - 11:14 pm | #
No one knows.
I don't know if in 3 years, but my guess it will not be currency but electronic credits. Cash will be a thing of the past.
Interesting Times - Word of caution DO NOT go near FTN...looks like a bargian but the fine print states it WONT pay a divi until a certian share price (if memory serves $15.00)...which means this puppy is dead in the water for a few years.
FTN.PR.A is a better bet for cash flow
Dude, take a closer look, that negative "embedded component" is showing that day's yield change across durations
Okay, the Chinese news is really bad.
But now unexpected.
Interesting Times- avoid the US.
The dollar is about to have a lurch south.
This is going to be very interesting.
Anybody think oil is going to keep getting cheaper when the dollar falls?
I don't.
Now the beggar thy neighbor begins.
The faster that folks drop their ties to the dollar, the faster they can begin to build their role in the new world economy. We are no longer going to be the center.
Someday this war's gonna end...
"How can I best utilize that .5 mil"
a good used tractor.
Be mindful of just how much internal trade is dollarized within China and Russia.
blert | 01.07.09 - 11:29 pm | #
Friend of mine is from Tibet via Nepal. She reports that relatives prefer cash gifts denominated in Euros over Dollar gifts. Don't know if this is a trend.
Rhodesian,
Yeah, but they're pretty diversified, both by sector and geography. I doubled down a couple of months ago @ $19. (original basis of $23, several years ago).
All the other players, especially the significant ones: CHINA, JAPAN manage their exchange rates and have been making almost all of their profits in the American market.
That is the reason that they continue to accept Treasury paper.
Citizen AllenM writes:
Okay, the Chinese news is really bad.
Have I missed something?
Commercial Delinquencies Double over last 90 days
Expect more accelerated failures throughout 2009.
The wheels are starting to come off.
"Wow!!!
Bloomberg is now showing a new embedded component below the yield curve which provides a range for negative yields! Wow baby!!!"
Holy smokes!
makes the Euro a poor replacement for the USD.
blert | 01.07.09 - 11:31 pm | #
and a worse replacement for the old Dmark.
Barley - Thanks. I usually follow for a significant period of time before dipping my toes.
I am a very conservative guy. It has worked out great so far. I do gamble with about 5% with put/calls/etf... but that's it.
Interesting Times,
Congrats on saving so well! Guard your money like your family and both will do well.
>Have you bought into the EEV trade yet?
You know, nobody has been a bigger fan of EEV on this board than me for the whole last year. I made some coin on EEV and EUM (the single short version) in Sept-Nov. and then I lightened up. But I still have a small amount of EEV and a little more EUM. I wished I had more of both today.
But I am going slow back into the double short ETFs. I don't trust this market because there's too much liquidity and manipulation around. I've been targeting Feb-March for the next big down leg in stocks. As we move closer, I'll get more EEV, QID, SRS and TWM.
One reason I'm not more short stocks right now is that I see equal or better value for my money on a risk/reward basis in PMs and commodities.
But the best bet of all is PMs and commodities.
@ Rich. Been rolling out of all positions taken back when volatility was going through the roof (God, I miss VIX @ 80!) and am looking for the next medium-term swing.
Do you have an opinion on UCD or the other Ultra commod funds? I am extremely aware of the potential "slippage" issues with levered funds, so the question is more along the lines of "is it (trying to) lever the right thing?:"
Yen and Dmarks are what you'd want.
But Dmarks are not to be had.
The total government debt in Japan is a bit too much for me, though.
Last post....going to eat a bunch of EWJ at the open.
Cheers.
Turkey sold $1 billion of dollar bonds maturing in 2017, joining a flurry of debt sales by developing nations this week. Turkey sold the notes to yield 5.01 percentage points above Treasuries. The Philippines also sold $1.5 billion of bonds, a day after Brazil and Colombia each tapped international markets for $1 billion.
If the Germans offered a decent yield, then the buyers might have appeared. It worked for the Turks and Fillipinos.
With enough pressure, it's reasonable to expect the Euro to split back into national currencies.
blert | 01.07.09 - 11:31 pm | #
Since I don't believe this for a second, would you explain how that would work and how it would come about? How would this logistically work and what are the incentives for those that were to leave?
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) - Thanks. I feel like the last 4 years was preparation for a major test. The test is now here. We all saw this coming miles away.
OF under WTF!
Five months ago macdonalds raised the price of my Quarter pounder meal by 7%
Tonight it's up an additional 14%
.
Rhodesian (or whomever recommended 'O' and 'NNN')
IF you're willing to gamble 'O' and 'NNN' will continue to pay out dividends, BUT you're concerned about them rolling over (a chart shows the risk is to the downside from here), then SRS would actually be a great hedging vehicle (as it was intended to be - who'd a thunk it?). You could go "delta neutral", protect against capital loss (and appreciation) while (potentially) collecting yield.
PCA,
I gather from your comment to me, and other posts you've made in the past, you're pretty heavy into TA, right? Are you a short term trader?
BH - eat 21% less of them. Problem solved!
Euros are not all identical.
They are issued by the various nations and have references as to which central bank issued them.
The market would simply start to discriminate against one or another CB.
The political class would be howling about local unemployment conditions and the need to support the local economy... think Ireland and Spain trying to refloat their bubbles.
The Euro was put together politically, and will break apart politically.
It's a fiat currency.
Just how sturdy do you think it can be?
All the other players, especially the significant ones: CHINA, JAPAN manage their exchange rates and have been making almost all of their profits in the American market.
blert | 01.07.09 - 11:35 pm | #
I don't think you have your facts together. Did you know that the biggest export market for China is Europe?
And China is Japan's largest export market.
Your talking volume.
I'm talking profits.
Not the same thing.
It's much much harder to get your margins in those markets.
[Since I don't believe this for a second, would you explain how that would work and how it would come about? How would this logistically work and what are the incentives for those that were to leave?
RE ]
Why so skeptical. These are sovereign nations, many of which have fought each other in military conflict, sharing a currency. Not like FL & NY. If you for a second don't think the exit plan was already firmly in place before the Euro was hatched, you're delusional.
I updated the chart of local demand situation in Ventura and added some supply data to the chart.
Currently 90% of current pending & contingent properties are under 659k. There is currently 44.6% of inventory above 659k. IMHO, the biggest next leg down will be the above conforming limit properties.
Effective Demand: Ventura County home buying frustration.
Euros are not all identical.
The rumor about German retailers accepting only German minted euros was soundly discredited.
I wonder.
Since I don't believe this for a second, would you explain how that would work and how it would come about? How would this logistically work and what are the incentives for those that were to leave?
RE | 01.07.09 - 11:40 pm | #
In theory, the Mediterean Eurozone members get tired of the EU central bank's "tight" money policies so they drop out of the Eurozone and make liras and drackmas legal tender again. All their existing bonds would be redenominated in their native currency. Their individual central banks could also monetize their government deficits.
Doubt that it will happen.
It is more likely the Europe will give Greece back to the Turks and Italy back to the Pope.
poster formerly known as nitpi,
Are you a short term trader?
I'm what's called a "swing trader", but in this market that could be 48-72 hours. I don't like to trade in-and-out that often, but if the market gives it to me (long or short) and then gives signals that it's about to reverse, then I'll take the money.
Case in point. Two Monday's ago I took half positions on SPY, QQQQ, and EEM after 3pm on a light volume decline; I took the other half the following morning. By Friday's close they were up anywhere from 8-10% from where I'd bought them; the market broke a previous swing high on dramatically lighter volume, which was an EXIT signal to me. So that was less than 4 market days of owning funds for a quick 2% total return on my account.
And as of Monday I shorted SPY, EEM (via EEV) and XLE (via DUG) and am short a glod stock Newmont Mining (NEM) last Friday. Btw, I posted all of these on here shortly after the trades. So I'm up on these shorts as of now - however, I'm considering holding these funds (esp. EEV) for quite a bit longer, taking profit draw-downs because I see big odds that they'll double in 4-6 weeks. I don't consider that a "short term" trade. I have a wage slave day job that keeps me from gambling away my winnings via day trading, thank goodness.
Nice work, Effective Demand. Seems to be the way around SoCal in general -- lots of sellers with delusions of grandeur.
Outsider- I agree. That's if I can find another job... Ideally, I would like to somehow use the .5 to become even more financially independent.
Interesting Times | 01.07.09 - 11:11 pm | #
Where do you live - I ask that because there are a lot of places in America where you could buy a tolerable house for less than $100K with very low taxes & utilities and find ways to make the remaining $400K last a LONG time. Some of those places are hell holes but not all are.
But with $400K as a head start a 'cost free home'... even a 'low wage job' - say $40K per year becomes 'liveable'.
Broward Horne writes:
"Five months ago macdonalds raised the price of my Quarter pounder meal by 7%"
"Tonight it's up an additional 14%"
Yes, but there is no inflation.
Except, apparently, where there is pricing power. If you can't afford McD's, you're basically down to rummaging in the trash. Not that McD's is much better quality-wise.
Maybe we need a soup line czar.
PCA,
Thanks...I'm curious....what sort of hardware (puter) do you use....do you use multiple monitors to view various charts? Reason for asking, am getting ready to allocate a few shekels to trading, and need a new puter, anyway, is why I'm asking. I've heard that for charting/trading, a gaming puter works well (high end graphics card, etc...)
Suggest taking out staggered times
90day/120day/360day - gives your option to average with future to capture higher rates
Barley | 01.07.09 - 11:15 pm | #
That is what I do with my cash...
They are issued by the various nations and have references as to which central bank issued them.
blert | 01.07.09 - 11:44 pm | #
That is the silliest comment I have heard in a long time. I am aware it made the rounds among the nut cases.
What percentage of commerce is being conducted in bank notes or coins today? Obvious answer right? So then why would origination of Euros make a difference if you can't tell where they originate from in electronic transactions?
Please give me a real reason for why the Eurozone will brake apart not simplistic BS.
dryfly - Currently in Toronto. But it's definitely not my home. I can't wait to leave...
I could always live in my rich aunt's beach house in florida lol.
I've heard that for charting/trading, a gaming puter works well (high end graphics card, etc...)
Charting etc doesn't put anywhere near the strain on a PC that gaming does. It would actually be hard to buy a current-model PC (other than maybe a NetBook) that doesn't have more than enough oomph.
Now your broadband connection...that could be another issue entirely depending on who is providing it.
I know a guy that had a "small" family (3-boys)and wife, got totally out of debt, moved to a small town in the desert, BOUGHT a small place for less than 100K, put the wife to work, watched the kids, raised veggies and beef, and lived happily ever-after.
Black Star Ranch | 01.07.09 - 11:17 pm | #
Don't have to go that extreme - but BSR beat me to the theme.
I could always live in my rich aunt's beach house in florida lol.
Interesting Times | 01.07.09 - 11:57 pm | #
I wouldn't dismiss that!
It's much much harder to get your margins in those markets.
blert | 01.07.09 - 11:47 pm | #
Do you have any facts to back that statement up?
For comparison, here are yields of other sovereign issuers.
Ten Year Government Bond Spreads Gov't Latest Spread
vs Bund Spread vs
T-BondsAustralia4.17%+0.97+1.69Austria4.05%+0.85+1.57Belgium4.01%+0.81+1.53Canada2.93%-0.27+0.45Denmark3.48%+0.29+1.00Finland3.90%+0.71+1.42France3.65%+0.46+1.17Germany3.20%0.00+0.72Greece5.29%+2.09+2.81Italy4.43%+1.23+1.95Japan1.28%-1.91-1.20Netherlands3.76%+0.56+1.28New Zealand4.75%+1.55+2.27Norway4.01%+0.82+1.53Portugal4.16%+0.97+1.68Spain4.00%+0.80+1.52Sweden2.66%-0.54+0.18Switzerland2.45%-0.75-0.03UK3.29%+0.10+0.81US2.48%-0.72
Sick and tired,
Thanks...have Comcast Cable, for whatever that's worth,
poster formerly known as nitpi,
I'm serious here (btw, I'm 26 and have been trading for 2 years), but prior to 3 weeks ago when I received my Dell Inspiron 1525 (for a sweet $500), I had been using the same computer (at home) for 6 years. I've mentioned to some people here that my father, in the life insurance business, still has a 1993 Dell desktop running Windows 3.1 and actually uses it in his work.
I place probably 80% of my trades at work, on (sometimes off) breaks. They're standard newish desktops with a reliable fast network. So I'm really low tech here, an account about 50k thanks to savings and capital gains.
Though I take my trading as seriously as if I were managing I.T.'s half million.
If you for a second don't think the exit plan was already firmly in place before the Euro was hatched, you're delusional.
bearly | 01.07.09 - 11:48 pm | #
Do you honestly think that newer IT systems in Europe handle multiple Eurozone currencies? I think it is you who is delusional. The Euro is completely ingrained in Western Europe in all facets of life and it would be a monumental task to go back to individual currencies not even mentioning trade disruption.
poster formerly known as nitpi writes:
"I'm curious....what sort of hardware (puter) do you use."
For about $1200, you can get a really nice desktop from these guys:
Welcome to the Shuttle computer US website.
Good monitors cost money. I use a pair of Viewsonic VP2130b's and a single 3200x1200 desktop spread across both. But you don't have to go that high end to get something that's effective.
And as S&T Dude says, a good broadband connection makes a big difference.
PCA at 26 there was $100 in my account.... I just took a chance, quit my fulltime tech job to become a contractor. Best decision I ever made. Those types of decisions can be made when you're young and have no kids... now it's a different story.
Ty tj. I'm working to make that chart better. I've shown it to some non-technical people and they understood what I meant right away. Most of my other charts I get the eyes glazing over type stuff. I'm going to try and add inventory in if I can get the data set.
PCA and sm_landlord,
Thanks...nice to know I don't need to spend a ton on hardware to be "effective" trading....the dual monitor thing DOES sound like the way to fly, though
>Do you have an opinion on UCD or the other Ultra commod funds?
No. I think commodities are volatile enough in the single version, as evidenced today.
In theory, the Mediterean Eurozone members get tired of the EU central bank's "tight" money policies so they drop out of the Eurozone and make liras and drackmas legal tender again.
NorkaWest | 01.07.09 - 11:50 pm | #
I assume that you saw my link to Greek interest rates in the early 90s in the last thread (William Poole). Interest rates and inflation exceeded 20% before they committed to the Euro. Italy would face similar problems, there was a study out a few years ago that analyzed it and it concluded that Italy would face at least 4% higher interest rates. If they were to get "tired", it would be a VERY costly getting tired, especially in the present environment.
dryfly - Currently in Toronto. But it's definitely not my home. I can't wait to leave...
Interesting Times | 01.07.09 - 11:57 pm | #
Here ya - been there on business many times. Done the 401 from Detroit to Toronto chasing automotive business - yuck. If I were Canadian w/ a young family [almost immigrated there myself in the early 80s] I'd look real hard at the Okanagan Valley in BC. With a $500K head start you could live a very nice life there even if the ongoing job income was less than Toronto, Vancouver, etc.
PCA at 26 there was $100 in my account.... I just took a chance, quit my fulltime tech job to become a contractor.
Interesting Times | 01.08.09 - 12:06 am | #
Same here, only I was 20.
So...
The population is in the streets...
Tax revolts are underway...
The elite class has lost its shirt in leveraged real estate...
But the politicians are going to stick by the Euro, yet still?
Well, that's what makes a market.
I offer my opinion, I don't profess to persuade.
My simplistic modeling caused me to predict a massive upheaval a year ago; having never read CR or any other financial blog...
My pitch was as stoutly rejected then as it is now.
Oh, well.
Then there's my prediction (August 82) that trouble in Mexico meant the biggest bull market in anyone's lifetime was about to begin.
Yep, no one bit on that one either.
I'd look real hard at the Okanagan Valley in BC. With a $500K head start you could live a very nice life...
Love the Okanagan. Genuinely unique part of Canada. But $500k isn't going to leave much after you buy a decent house.
Maybe in a couple of years...
dryfly - Thanks. Will check it out and see what their economy is like.
PCA at 26 there was $100 in my account.... I just took a chance, quit my fulltime tech job to become a contractor. Best decision I ever made. Those types of decisions can be made when you're young and have no kids... now it's a different story.
Interesting Times | 01.08.09 - 12:06 am | #
I've been a self-employed contractor in B2B marketing & mfg sales & consulting for 25 years - married & raised three kids - it can work you just have to live 'differently'... [never assume your income stream is 'safe']. But when I want to blog or go fishing I blog or go fishing.
dryfly,
If everyone were as prudent as you the U.S. would've never had the spending orgy and asset manias of the last 28 years. What would we have done? Grow organically?!
If they were to get "tired", it would be a VERY costly getting tired, especially in the present environment.
RE | 01.08.09 - 12:09 am | #
That's why it is more likely that the Euro-core countries kick them out, rather than than them bailing out on their own.
Neither will probably happen, IMHO.
dryfly - I'm hoping to continue with contracting. Re-education seems to be in the cards.
I think a small chunk of the savings will go to getting certified in some of the new software that the leading vendors will be pumping out. Certification is key in enterprise software... but not cheap.
This game can go on as long as government and large organisation keep relying on proprietary ERP / CRM enterprise apps.
Gotta go. Thanks for all the advice and I will continue to post.
Many articles have been written recently about the danger of the Euro failing. I don't buy it but I have wavered at some of the arguments being made.
The one that seems to hold water is the fact nationalism didn't die when the Euro was released. Historic animosities given fuel by economic distress could flare up. Some countries feeling they are bailing out other less wealthy country's bad decisions could lead to a push towards readopting their old currency.
Germany has protested and been very reluctant in giving billions to bail out the banks and other countries. Germany is the manufacturing engine of the EU and might want back the advantage it had with it's own sovereign currency.
Honestly with the amount of turmoil and distress around the world anything is possible and the easiest way to be wrong is to prognosticate.
Neither will probably happen, IMHO.
NorkaWest | 01.08.09 - 12:18 am | #
I agree, very unlikely.
If everyone were as prudent as you the U.S. would've never had the spending orgy and asset manias of the last 28 years. What would we have done? Grow organically?!
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse | Homepage | 01.08.09 - 12:17 am | #
LOL - we buy some stuff once in a while but you should see our house & cars... tired old complete POSs... not doing my job to make Ben's Inflationary Dreams come true.
Certification is key in enterprise software... but not cheap.
Interesting Times | 01.08.09 - 12:18 am | #
Ya my wife was part of a large SAP implementation - the IT consultants she worked with did A-OK... She is not IT but has become one of her companies SAP 'Power Users'. It's not quite a guarantee she won't get laid off but close.
The Euro is completely ingrained in Western Europe in all facets of life and it would be a monumental task to go back to individual currencies not even mentioning trade disruption.
RE | 01.08.09 - 12:03 am | #
Yet the dollar being devalued or replaced after losing reserve status is utterly believable?
Congressional Budget Office is saying housing starts will turn up in late 2009.
Looks a little like toxic Kool-Aid to me. Actually, the entire report looks more than a little toxic.
See page 6.
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/99xx/doc9957/01-07-Outlook.pdf
Nut job link.
Support for euro in doubt as Germans reject Latin bloc notes - Telegraph
Congressional Budget Office is saying housing starts will turn up in late 2009.
mp | 01.08.09 - 12:26 am | #
By chance or by decree?
Dear Ken Cooper...
your new version 1.06 kicks a**! why so long long for me to upgrade? That's Cambodia, Captain."
now when exactly will you be replacing Steve Jobs? "That's classified."
"rich writes:
I've been targeting Feb-March for the next big down leg in stocks. As we move closer, I'll get more EEV, QID, SRS and TWM."
Rich, what signals are you monitoring to get the timing of this next let down correct? You must be at least somewhat concerned that it might happen sooner than you thought. Appreciate your insights as always.....
Where is Conjure's clock and what time is it?
@dryfly
By decree, of course.
Where's Werner when we're talking bunds and Euros?
It would be interesting to get the perspective of someone on the ground over there.
RockyR, just for you.
CONJURE'S GLOBAL DEPRESSION CLOCK
The time is now:
11:59:54
Conjure asks, "Does everyone know what time it is?"
Housing starts turning up is a relative achievement, quite possible in late 2009 if starts go to zero or below in early 2009. Anything is possible in this new economy.
So I went to make a large withdrawal today from my credit union, and what do they give me instead of cash? An IOU from the State of California! The state took my money and replaced it with an IOU. What gives?
OK, so the above incident didn't really happen. But how far can we be if surplus taxes paid to the state can get returned at tax time as an IOU?
Unlike the Armageddon clock, Conjure's will actually reach midnight.
Yet the dollar being devalued or replaced after losing reserve status is utterly believable?
anon | 01.08.09 - 12:25 am | #
The Dollar losing its reserve currency status has been in process for quite a while. It has been devalued 3 times against "hard" currencies since 1971. It has excellent prospects to be devalued again within the next 24 to 36 months IMO. Why should there be confidence in its status?
Losing status does not happen overnight, it happens by experience.
Link for international bond yields:
FT.com - Markets Data - Bonds & Rates Overview
Last time the State of California issued those IOUs, banks accepted them same as a check. Nowadays it might be different.
An IOU from the State of California! The state took my money and replaced it with an IOU.
Well, if you think about it, other than swapping "California" for "US", that IOU is not much different than a Federal Reserve Note.
Jas, I'm sure, can elaborate further...
Losing status does not happen overnight, it happens by experience.
RE | 01.08.09 - 12:37 am | #
Agreed.
US Dollar's replacement(s) as reserve currency will be determined by trial-and-error.
It took a couple of generations for the US dollar to supercede the UK Pound; yet, the Pound still retains minor reserve currency status.
Reserve currencies seem to need a dominant navy and army to back them up.
Only the Yen comes close to the USD.
Breaking News:
Proud to announce the new Citi Homeowner Assistance program for eligible borrowers who may be facing financial difficulties but are not yet delinquent.
If you think you are eligible, please call 1-800-MORTGAGE
Citi Announces New Preemptive Initiatives to Help Homeowners Remain in Their Homes
Citi Never Sleeps...
mp, see also page 13 of the CBO report:
The Budget Outlook for 2009
The federal fiscal situation in 2009 will be dramatically worse than it was in 2008. Under the assumption that current laws and policies remain in place (that is, not accounting for any new legislation), CBO estimates that the deficit this year will total $1.2 trillion, more than two and a half times the size of last years.
Guess that means no new stimulus package this year. The money has already been spent.
re: germany vs eu - interesting.
the picture is complicated by the fact that the wealthier half of germany went on a buying frenzy in mediterranean real estate '02-'06. the euro was a big part of this.
the bull case for ewj in the AM is also interesting if anyone wants to share. also, thanks for posting the ucd and dbb tickers, had forgotten what those were.
was lucky enough to dump all my dxo yesterday, also dumped 1/3 of my big JNK position this AM, if anyone cares.
And that deficit must surely model on ZIRP credit card financing from Mr. Helicopter.
"ZIRP credit card financing"
even in that world, i wonder if gringos would still pay down debt. never thought i'd see the day, but it is here.
"That's classified."
That would be "That's classified, Chief."
BTW, did we ever admit to a long planned and well executed invasion of Cambodia or do we still pretend it was all a big mistake in the pre-GPS days?
"Why should there be confidence in its status?"
The same question can be asked of the Euro.
IIRC Nixon made it a nationally televised infomercial: the selling of the exit.
Black Star Ranch writes:
Last time the State of California issued those IOUs, banks accepted them same as a check. Nowadays it might be different.
Are payday loan places lending against them at par? That would give some indication of their true value.
Fungible IOUs = fiat money
ie it is unconstitutional
but California keeps doing it.
It would be interesting to get the perspective of someone on the ground over there.
NorkaWest | 01.08.09 - 12:32 am | #
rent_to_own commented on this a while ago. My experience is from spending 50% of my time in Europe from 2000 through 2005 but much less time since. I have Euro accounts with German and Swiss banks.
Corey,
I didn't know payday loan places were players in the "distressed debt" market...VBG
"well executed invasion of Cambodia"
i was always under the impression that it was entirely an aerial affair (and a massive one at that), without boats on the ground. is that mistaken?
of all of kissinger's war crimes, that may be the most heinous, which is saying something.
Seems to be a recurring topic this week -
"On Wednesday, a bank of six phones at a Sacramento EDD office was occupied by applicants while 15 other people waited in line to use them. Many people spent frustrating hours trying to get through on the lines - even when calling from the phone banks at the state office."
http://www.sacbee.com/business/story/1523928.html
Thank you, MP. I'd like to say that brightened my spirits, but it didn't.
Only 6 seconds of "normal", left.
"but California keeps doing it."
ironically, having any kind of structural deficit in the first place explicitly violates the CALIFORNIA constitution.
bgates writes:
"well executed invasion of Cambodia"
i was always under the impression that it was entirely an aerial affair (and a massive one at that), without boats on the ground. is that mistaken?
Yes you are.
We sent a massive troop sweep into the Parrot's Beak televised nationally, with a presidential address claiming we were invading so that we could leave.
I'm not making that up.
Nixon was hunting for COSVN. It was never netted.
"We sent a massive troop sweep into the Parrot's Beak televised nationally"
interesting. one of these days, i'll finally sit down and read 'bright and shining lie'. that book of the work of photojournalists which came out a decade ago (?) who never made it home is one of the most disturbing books ever published.
Heading down the stretch after lunch break...
HSI 14438.61 -548.85 -3.66%
NIKKEI 8902.9 -336.34 -3.64%
China 1878.316 -45.696 -2.38%
Ringing in New Year
Nut job link.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finan...bloc- notes.html
tg is a born & bred dope in a | 01.08.09 - 12:26 am | #
Yep, Ambrose is quite well known as an anti Euro fellow. You have to take his opinions, especially regarding the Euro, with a big grain of salt.
http://www.journalisted.com/ambrose-evanspritchard
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is the international business editor of the Daily Telegraph. A long-time opponent of the EU's constitition and monetary union, he was the Telegraph's Europe correspondent in Brussels from 1999 to 2004.
I was always under the impression that it was entirely an aerial affair (and a massive one at that), without boots [ed.] on the ground. is that mistaken?
Absolutely. Muc Hoa was my location. It was one of several points on the border. There's a large memorial there now that they built some years later.
ut job link 2
Euro currency divide emerges - Telegraph
I think TJ was being sarcastic with the "nut job".
Sportsfan, please revisit the Parrots Beak sweep.
Boots on the ground and plenty of them.
He's right on Nixon/Cambodia. The Nixon quote, as broadcast...
"To protect our men who are in Vietnam and to guarantee the continued success of our withdrawal and Vietnamization programs, I have concluded that the time has come for action."
I'm not making that up.
blert | 01.08.09 - 12:55 am |
I don't remember the Presidential address part - or any TV for that matter. What I do recall from Stars & Stripes is Nixon quoted as saying we were just chasing them around in the jungle and, you know, there aren't any signs where one country begins and the other ends and all that sort of BS.
We found that rather amusing, but oh so typical.
wow, i just now discovered that you can't enter cambodia without going through laos. you could fill millions of phone books with my ignorance about SE asia.
Earlier this week, Vietnamese authorities said the 13-year-old girl's younger sister was in hospital with an H5N1 virus infection.
Both girls had eaten duck and chicken raised on the family farm, Mau said.
The 13-year-old developed a high fever and severe cough on Dec. 25 and died in the district hospital on Jan. 2, Mau said.
After her 8-year-old sister was confirmed to be infected with H5N1, about 50 children with flu symptoms were brought in by nervous parents in the area but tests for avian influenza were negative on all of them, she said.
I think TJ was being sarcastic with the "nut job".
anon | 01.08.09 - 1:00 am | #
I agree but I apply that label somewhat generally to what the Telegraph says but especially to Ambrose. Please give me a credible less biased source for that "information".
lol, mixing up cambodia and thailand...
but i think i'm still ahead of our sitting president on my se asia knowledge.
bgates writes:
wow, i just now discovered that you can't enter cambodia without going through laos. you could fill millions of phone books with my ignorance about SE asia.
I hope that's sarcasm.
The Parrot's Beak is the border area through which the Mekong flows into Vietnam.
Nixon and MACV were convinced that they could zap COSVN in the Beak.
And COSVN was there. They just bobbed and weaved out of the way.
Not too hard to do. the personal secretary to the President of South Vietnam was an agent for the North!
Please give me a credible less biased source for that "information".
RE | 01.08.09 - 1:05 am | #
Perhaps you could give me a list of media sources you find acceptable. It would make the search easier.
dryfly writes:
"I'd look real hard at the Okanagan Valley in BC. With a $500K head start you could live a very nice life there..."
The Okanagan is Canada's equivalent to Phoenix, except it's worse. The real estate bubble has only just popped, thus many multi-family and commercial projects are still under construction. The excess of residential inventory (30 months or more at current rates of sale) means that prices will fall, but the locals have only just begun to consider that they may be facing a Wile E. Coyote moment. Prices have dropped slightly, but the real carnage will be in the next few years.
In addition to this real estate disaster, the major employers in the area (forest industries) are in the middle of a crisis of their own, with declining markets, unfavourable exchange rates, reduced access to credit, and a pine-beetle infestation that can easily be seen from space. The only glass-plant in Canada (located near Vernon) closed its doors permanently in October, and local boat and RV manufacturers are either reducing output, or shutting down. There is no heavy industry, and what light industry there was has left in the past few years.
Local restaurants are now in trouble, and last Saturday evening, I noticed several of them literally only had a handful of customers during the dinner hour.
I'd wait at least a few years before considering a move to the Okanagan Valley.
"I hope that's sarcasm."
not at all, i know the geography and history of europe and latin america quite well for a gringo, but almost nothing about the layout of asia. at least i can correctly identify all of the major languages of asia when written.
it is confusing - the events of 1970 and 1973 seem to be the difference between a somewhat earnest (if stupid) attempt to win a war versus large-scale terrorism.
Lebanon entered the middle eat war. Reports of rockets falling. Check details below:
MarketWarnings: Reports of Rockets Hitting Norther Israel (at least one in Nahariya)
One of the guys working on the basement project was a subcontractor from Holland, with office here and also in Holland (huh? go figure...).
Loves US and hates politicians and one day, conversation turned to Euro/Germany.
Per him, Germany has had hands full with taking in E Germany post '90/'91 and the folks were not keen on also having to take in the med/latin contingents. They ain't pleased...
Perhaps you could give me a list of media sources you find acceptable. It would make the search easier.
anon | 01.08.09 - 1:08 am | #
Would you find a local one please, like from Germany, since that is the subject of the rejection? As I said I spend significant time on the ground and read the local papers daily. I can promise you that no Euro I ever spent was ever inspected as to its origin.
rent_to-own, who lives in Germany right now, also commented on the subject and called it politely ridiculous. I'll do a search if I find his post but I'm certain some here remember it.
Time likes the Euro.
Is the Euro the New Dollar? - TIME
"They ain't pleased..."
yes, they resented carrying the load for the stupid, lazy ossies (their sentiment, not mine). i could easily see that sentiment translating to their european brethren in sunnier climes.
blert, I'm looking for maps from that era to pinpoint Muc Hoa.
ut job perceptions and reality
The Euro, Inflation and Consumers ... - Google Books
One Third of Germans Want the Deutsche Mark Back
The euro may be soaring in value against the dollar but more and more Germans would gladly ditch the currency. The main reason for this dissatisfaction is a misguided tendency to blame it for inflation. Another reason, of course, might be nostalgia for the deutsche mark.
Remembrance of Things Past: One Third of Germans Want the Deutsche Mark Back - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International
Breaking News >> Police Say Three Rockets Fired From Lebanon Strike Northern Israel
More on Topic
"This is shockingly Awful"
Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York
"If the recent relationship between the ADP numbers after their recent revisions and the official payroll data holds, then we should expect a number of about minus-700,000 on Friday, the biggest drop in 59 years."
Seems like more news in one day than in past years
Riots in oakland tonight
CBS 5 - San Francisco Bay Area's source for news, weather, traffic and sports
IDF on alert after Nahariya attack | Israel | Jerusalem Post
Jan 8, 2009 7:51 | Updated Jan 8, 2009 8:00
Several lightly wounded as rockets hit near Nahariya
Explosions were heard in the western Galilee, in Israel's north on Thursday morning.
Channel 10 reported that the explosions were the result of four Katyusha rockets.
The IDF said the incident was being examined, Israel Radio reported.
Magen David Adom said that several people were lightly wounded near Nahariya.
Even if the explosions were the result of rocket fire, there was no certainty whether these rockets were fired by Hizbullah.
Hizbullah has so far refrained from opening a front on Israel's north even though it has threatened to do so since the beginning of Israel's Operation Cast Lead 13 days ago.
google likes 'moc hoa' more than 'muc hoa'
140 were KIA from the IV corps in kien tuong according to this:
Casualties - US vs NVA/VC
How can I best utilize that .5 mil in this horribly low yielding (tax the savers!) environment? What strategies would you take? Currently about 90% cash 10% in oil trusts.
Thanks!
Interesting Times | 01.07.09 - 10:54 pm | #
I suggest moving to Palestine, TX where my parents retired over 20 years ago. Here is a link to a $112K home for sale. My cousin, George McIntyre, is a long time Century 21 (Pace McDonald) realtor there. You could work in the Palestine or Tyler area or commute to the Dallas area. My sister works for the State Atty. General's office in Tyler. Home prices are higher in Tyler than Palestine but still reasonable. Tyler has a bigger employment base.
- real estate - REALTOR.com®
RE,
The dollar is toast, the Euro will reign supreme. There is dissatisfaction in the EU among the different governments but the center will hold and they will come out of this much better economically.
My original post doubted the assertion the Euro would crumble but it is showing some cracks like the entire worlds fiat currency system.
Tomorrow is a mystery.
I would have never believed the majority of circumstances the last 8 years have created.
Oakland riots, live and in color.
I've seen this movie before.
re: euro, i really don't get why CHF paper isn't getting more of a buzz here and elsewhere
The Dollar is NOT toast...
It's in the toaster...
Unfortunately, the controls are stuck...
And we are all TOAST.
Oakland riots...similar to the circumstances that started the Greece riots.
The BART officer thought he had his taser. After watching the video of the shooting it is the only explanation. Majority of law enforcement agencies require you to put your taser on the opposite side from your gun. Muscle memory from firearms training becomes almost instinctual.
Horrible accident.
Damn tragic....
Just stay away from 14th Avenue...
BART cops may be the most trigger-happy cops on the west coast. they killed a naked man not long ago. that's special.
anon writes:
"The dollar is toast, the Euro will reign supreme."
Would you please supply some rationale to support that assertion?
I would like to believe you for personal pecuniary reasons, but I could use some reassurance...
Thx.
Was he loaded...
erect?...
what was he packing?...
The dollar is toast, the Euro will reign supreme. There is dissatisfaction in the EU among the different governments but the center will hold and they will come out of this much better economically.
anon | 01.08.09 - 1:25 am | #
I don't it see that way. I actually don't think that the Euro will replace the Dollar as THE reserve currency. I simply think that the Dollar will lose its exclusivity.
Cracks in currencies nowadays are simply reflective of the cracks in the world's financial system which lead to cracks in the social fabric.
IMO all currencies will be debased in the next few years in order to paper over the major economic issues that the world faces. Devaluations will happen for very different reasons, some forced and some voluntary.
However, I am quite certain that the Dollar will lose even more of its reputation. As NorkaWest mentioned above, we will likely see trade in many more currencies and under barter arrangements.
The last 8 years have been a disaster for the U.S. I still believe that the decision to invade Iraq will be the marker that historians use to denote the beginning of the end of the American empire.
O-Town has always been pretty hard, but these "riots" are nothing like LA 1991. Maybe after the cop is let off...
DJ, if you're reading this, I'm feeling you from this morning. This is just a small taste of what it looks like when events outpace react
My wife got notice today that Oregon has cut funding to schools. Sooo, the county has a choice: lay off fifteen teachers, or give everyone two days off without pay.
That's a loss of 1% of annual income.
I expected this sort of thing, but the rapid arrival surprises even me.
"the beginning of the end of the American empire."
only the bad ones. the dumping of bretton-woods is more accurate.
Congressional Budget Office is saying housing starts will turn up in late 2009.
mp | 01.08.09 - 12:26 am | #
Did you see the cover letter signature: Robert A. Sunshine, Acting Director. You can't make this stuff up.
While I think that Bush should have been impeached....
These problems go right back into the Clinton years...
Ultimately the problem is the Ivy League group think....
Just as the problem with France is the Enarques....
Groupthink also dominates Russia, Japan, China....
Looks like some Oakland CRE is taking a beating. Literally.
"The dollar is toast, the Euro will reign supreme."
The Germans WILL NOT TOLERATE inflating the euro.
Max writes:
"Looks like some Oakland CRE is taking a beating. Literally. :)"
Nothing like what happened in LA last time.
Yet.
.
platinum has had a nice stealth rally - that one slipped under the radar of the groupthink here...
sm_landlord writes:
"The dollar is toast, the Euro will reign supreme."
Would you please supply some rationale to support that assertion?
I'm curious as well. Haven't found a rationale thus far, but can offer one contrary opinion from a respectable source:
Gary Shilling's 2009 Predictions: We're Still Screwed
*See #9
Anonymous | 01.08.09 - 1:45 am |
That was me. Sorry.
If the Euro makes it to the top...
It will be the first reserve currency with absolutely NO military backing.
How so?