Silly CR. Didn't you know unemployment is a lagging indicator? If tomorrow's number is terrible it just reflects that in this new age of instant business dynamics, all the job losses are about over and the recovery is set to begin. Just watch CNBC and you will learn the truth of this.
Dripping sarcasm, obviously.
Bah! a 1.3% decline. Someone obviously found some navel lint listed as a TSLF asset, and accidently asked someone why it was stored in a box in the vault with a AAA card taped to it.
Did the assets at the FED go down because they stopped buying or sold some? Or did they "mark to market" some of their crap paper and thus the drop? The FED should be well versed in Level III accounting by now.
Credit enima is coming..... writes:
What with only 912k job losses in December it's already priced in . Dow up 900 tomorrow
Credit enima is coming..... | 01.08.09 - 8:33 pm | #
If that happens Ill be dreaming of some delicious salmon (SDS).
cause the cash crunch in December for year end business is over ... and business has found its way around the stoppages in credit supply ... those that have a chance of survival.
The deflation will continue its ugly work as it has.
There's no time to lose, I heard her say
Catch your dreams before they slip away
Dying all the time
Lose your dreams
And you may lose your mind.
Ain't life unkind?
But the Fed did decide to include state and local government investment pools in the MMIFF and Obama wants the Fed to create a muni commercial paper funding facility. Who knows where we go from here.
The poor jobs report tomorrow is mainly because of the bad weather. Unemployment numbers will improve dramatically when the skies aren't so overcast, and the temperature a little higher. Or in the second half, whichever comes first.
Radiation from the nuclear blast was 300 rads/sec but has decreased to 295 rads/sec...This is a little improvement ...
The speed of fire racing towards the children's hospital just 10 miles away was 30 mph, but has decreased to 26 mph....This is a little improvement ...
The height of the flood waters was 40 ft, but has receeded to 38 feet...This is a little improvement ...
Bond Girl: Now that no one has to worry about rate cuts, the Fed will follow the ECB in innovative attempts to get credit out there by circumventing existing markets which have turned from liquid to sludge
Stiglitz has a vid on bloomy. I am too afraid to watch. He say's Obama's stimulus isn't enough. Hell, Obama hasn't even given a figure. You can't give a socialist enough free money. They always need more.
I think this is a good sign, but I'm still inclined to think this thing comes in waves. Things have looked like they were improving for a week or two here and there in the past few months, and then it gets going again. The fundamentals of our economy have not changed.
Bondgirl - what did you make of the German e3T bond failure yesterday? I was talking to some people who said basically they fkd up the pricing. But it seemed to me that marginal pricing concerns could not account for the entire issue going south.
Anyhow, much to some people's delight, I am going to be contributing less here, having taken on a new role in audit and risk oversight in quite a big outfit. My first week's papers look horrific... and measured in stack inches (!)
So, looking like a busy Q1, after which we will have solved all the problems and have a mellow Spring and golden Summer...
Forget the short-lived buzz of $300bn in TARP stimulus, pain for the banks is far from over. Real deleveraging is only just beginning to gather speed; the world economy has yet to enter its worst months, and there are certainly more writedowns to come. "
Does anyone know anything about the Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports that a host of state, county municipality, and other agencies generate? It seems to me there are many pretty big Ponzie schemes going on here too. My county has over 3 billion in net assets, yet they are laying off 400 teachers, What gives? Here's a snapshot of our balance sheet: http://hosting04.imagecross.com/image-hosting-17/9001p151.JPG
Here's a great site for checking up on what your locality has: http://www.cafrman.com/
In 2007 the US on average produced at 476,991,758 Watts
You're talking 200,000,000,000. I hope you can count zeroes.
I also take it you have no concept or large project planning because the patience and financing of even 1/1000th of that generation ability is something the United States government does not even have, and good luck selling the special bonds to finance the production of a market you're about to flood with supply
This is just a pea and shell game for Marketable Securities, which are illiquid and worthless and then these assclowns pump up the value and suggest they have future value, which is horse-shit!
So you are saying the US uses 477 MW (477 * 10^6)? I think it us you who does not have a concept of numbers
"In 2007 the US on average produced at 476,991,758 Watts"
Look, China can build Areva-designed 1 GW nuclear reactors in about 5-6 years at a cost of 1.5 B per reactor. They use the same components (made by the same manufacturers) as those used in french reactors.How can they do it? Slave labor.. nahh.. they are cheap not stupid.
The problem in building decent nuclear reactors is excessive regulation and legal problems with reprocessing spent fuel.
The problem in building decent nuclear reactors is excessive regulation and legal problems with reprocessing spent fuel.
and politics, lack of design standardization and other logistical errors compounded by nimbys, enviros, lawyers and a technologically naive population.
Aren't assets good things(tm)? Isn't that what most Americans spend their life accumulating?
asun | 01.08.09 - 8:27 pm | #
The fed has (is?) a balance sheet, the basic liabilities are bank reserves and federal reserve notes, aka the money supply. If the assets are going up like that I guarantee you it is not because of an increase in equity.
lucifer --
You just don't understand the basic units, before you even begin your pie in the sky dreaming.
Energy is not the same as Power. Energy is in WattHours and Power is in Watts.
All you do is whine about elite ivy leaguers and environmentalists. You're expertise begins and ends with uneducated complaints of groups that have offended you.
I have a feeling that you never made it into the ivy league because you were not smart enough (student aid ftw!), and the city made your replant a tree that you cut down and used for firewood
Counterpointer(Excellent) writes: Anyhow, much to some people's delight, I am going to be contributing less here, having taken on a new role in audit and risk oversight in quite a big outfit. My first week's papers look horrific... and measured in stack inches (!)
We'll all miss your youthful ambition, enthusiasm and insight. Good luck.
If you are just looking at the CAFR, you are not getting a complete understanding of where a governmental entity stands. CAFRs are a snapshot of the past. A municipality's actions now are going to be oriented toward how their current revenues will measure up to their budget and what future revenues look like. They are not going to base current spending off of the information in their financial statements. There is a lag there too. For example, most state FYs end June 30th. What has happened since June 30th? A heck of a lot, and fast.
Look we could build 100 - 1.1 GW Areva-designed nuclear reactors + 5 big fuel reprocessing plants in the USA in the next 8 years. Creates about 10,000 jobs per plant (building stages) + about 3-4,000 jobs running the thing..
We could build them in parts of the US that are not overtly seismically active + low population density + no hurricanes or large nasty weather systems.. say texas, new mexico, arizona, nevada, rural michigan, rural ohio, north and south dakota, minnesota, rural SE states, and use them to supply energy to more energy hungry states.
Could power a lot of electric vehicles..
P- The 1.1 GW Areva reactors are the most numerous of the Areva family and have a very good operational record + lots of user experience.
The name Clarett evolved from Mr. Klar-feld's fondness for wine and a combinationof their two surnames. In their new busi-ness, established in 1999, Ms. Hackett was"the outside person" handling marketing,sales and the financial relationships. Untilhe died of cancer in 2004 at age 60 "a hor-rible loss,"
anon: Gracias Muchacho. She's got her first gig this Sunday. Some professional musician types came in to her rehearsal a few days ago and were pretty impressed.
I'm wondering if there is any validity to the notion presented here by Walter J. Burien that there is plenty of money to be had found in CAFR Reports. It seems to me that he outlines it pretty clearly in this video: CAFR - Walter Burien - The Biggest Game in Town - documentary
From the last thread, let's say that Roubini's forecast is correct. If the economy drops during all of 2009, then say goodbye to the consensus forecast. The bottom would drop out of equities and we'd be on our way to SP 650.
If the bottom did fall out of equities, and you combine that loss in wealth with the 44% drop in residential prices Nouriel is talking about, you end up with a household sector that is nothing but smoking wreckage, wiped out.
If the bottom did fall out of equities, and you combine that loss in wealth with the 44% drop in residential prices Nouriel is talking about, you end up with a household sector that is nothing but smoking wreckage, wiped out.
And because pension funds and insurance companies are also heavily dependent in real estate and equities...
mp, bingo, you must have been chatting with your bud conjure. HH sector is basically kaput, the vast majority will never be able to retire, compititon for wal-mart greeter jobs is going to be intense. Go long Ralston Purina, they are going to be selling lots of cat food...with no comenseurate rise in kitty litter sales.
"If the bottom did fall out of equities, and you combine that loss in wealth with the 44% drop in residential prices Nouriel is talking about, you end up with a household sector that is nothing but smoking wreckage, wiped out."
I'm going back to playing Fallout 3...'Tis a happier, sunnier place.
"And because pension funds and insurance companies are also heavily dependent in real estate and equities..."
Sure. You've got an absolute mess.
Recall CR's analysis from last year. If prices dropped 40% the equity of all mortgage-holders would be wiped-out in aggregate. Then, CR felt that the drop wouldn't exceed 35%, and he was way below consensus.
Yah.. But reactor output is in W (as in say 1.1 GW- 1.1 gigawatt). I am aware that electric power is measured in Watt.Hours.. Reactor output is usually reported in W (optimal thermal output), conversion to electricity is another matter- but using standard turbine systems you can get 40 ish % conversion..capacity utilization + down time are also important.
So either you were "careless" when you "forgot" to add the proper units in your original numbers- or you "misunderstood" my statement.
Are you incompetent or disingenuous?
//You just don't understand the basic units, before you even begin your pie in the sky dreaming.
Energy is not the same as Power. Energy is in WattHours and Power is in Watts.//
Hmm.. you do not understand my opposition to ivy leagues.. google "cognitive dissonance" - such places tend to breed that. The reality is that ivy leagues are about politics and connection - not excellence.
One of the main reason the US is doomed is because feminized, smug, do-nothing, invent excuses, pretend to be knowledgeable losers like you are in control. If chinese and indians can build those nuclear plants on schedule, you should be able to.. If you cannot, you should not be allowed to call yourself an expert at anything.
PS- If do-nothing f**kers like you were allowed to have their way in the past, we would still be riding horses to the local farmers market.
//All you do is whine about elite ivy leaguers and environmentalists. You're expertise begins and ends with uneducated complaints of groups that have offended you.
I have a feeling that you never made it into the ivy league because you were not smart enough (student aid ftw!), and the city made your replant a tree that you cut down and used for firewood//
And because pension funds and insurance companies are also heavily dependent in real estate and equities...
MADISON Retired Wisconsin state workers will see their pension checks decrease for the first time ever this year thanks to a more than 26 percent loss in state investments.
The state of Wisconsin Investment Board announced today that pension payments will be cut between 2.5 percent and 3 percent for retirees invested in the states core fund. The exact amount will be set in March and take effect in May.
Retirees invested in the variable fund will see that portion of their pension checks drop by 39 percent to 44 percent,
On CSPAN now, the acting CBO director is I kid you not "Mr. Sunshine" now wonder we get overly optimistic economic assessments (although the CBO has generally been better than other DC types, but that is damming with faint praise)
OT – The current copy of Foreign Policy arrived in my mail today. CR is listed under the section Expert Sitings. The web address is: Foreign Policy: Error for anyone who is interested in reading the sentence.
Also, Roubini is exactly 30 pages earlier with an article entitled Warning: More Doom Ahead.
Hmmm... Clarett partnered with Prudential Real Estate Investors in 2002. This seems to be where the equity comes from. The guy who runs it is a member of PREA.
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes: The Oil Drum just called. It wants its topic back.
Good one, sir.
Though I must agree with the above poster (lucifer?) that if we're going to be spending trillions, energy infrastructure is probably as good as anything. Well, at least better than p*ssing it away on stimulating another round of McMansion-building (phone ringing... it's the HBB).
Retired Wisconsin state workers will see their pension checks decrease for the first time ever this year thanks to a more than 26 percent loss in state investments.
Wait until the equity losses get reflected in the insurance premiums. You'll pay 20% more for your house that decreased 20% in value.
An article on the Bloomberg website today suggests that Asia will have a "V-shape" recovery from the current economic crisis, rebounding in 2010. This is opposed to a "U-shape" recovery, which would presumably take a little longer.
May I suggest another alphabetic possibility? What if the "recovery," not just in Asia, but globally, is shaped more like a big capital L?
No doubt the suggestion that we have reached fundamental limits to economic growth is as unpalatable today as was the initial forecast, issued back in 1972, that such limits would be met during this century. The famous Club of Rome report, which sold more copies than any other environmental book in history, was vilified almost immediately by pro-growth think tanks in Washington, which organized a highly successful PR takedown during the 1980s. Today, it is impossible to mention the phrase "limits to growth" in public without hearing a dismissive outburst from somewhere within earshot. Never mind the follow-up studies that have shown that the primitive computer-based analysis on which the original report was based was on the right trackwhich is to say that the freight train of industrial civilization is on the wrong track, and headed for history's biggest "splat."
The dollar headed for its first weekly loss against the yen in three weeks before a U.S. payroll report that may show the economy lost jobs every month in 2008 and the unemployment rate rose to a 16-year high.
Wow there's alot of built up anger in Hell .lucifer you should paint hell over to a more warmer color . Red is the warmest of all colors. Red is the color most chosen by extroverts and one of the top picks of males. On the negative side red can mean temper or anger. In China, red is the color of prosperity and joy. Brides wear red and front doors are often painted red. Red is Tuesday's color. Red roses symbolize passionate love. Ruby rings should be worn on the left hand. Red is the color of Mars. This planet is known as the God of War.Just kidding ...http://crystal-cure.com/red.html
Because when a rich 'educated' white person [Club of Rome] with eugenic fantasies mentions "limits to growth" I am reminded of the poor record of such "experts" at predicting the future!
//Today, it is impossible to mention the phrase "limits to growth" in public without hearing a dismissive outburst from somewhere within earshot. Never mind the follow-up studies that have shown that the primitive computer-based analysis on which the original report was based was on the right trackwhich is to say that the freight train of industrial civilization is on the wrong track, and headed for history's biggest "splat."//
Pet owners, get ready for sticker shock. Retailers and manufacturers are hiking pet food prices, and the cost of kibble is expected to climb even higher in coming months.
WTF, we have deflation in our economy and pet food and human food are continuing to go up? This will cause riots at some point, with dogs and cats fighting like all that ... never mind
Lucifer,
First lets get Yucca Mt up and running with special rail lines to it that avoid bringing the waste through the heart of LV. Nuke waste is the only significant problem with nuke power under current designs. However it is relatively high cost. Very much agree with your point about upgrading the grid, has to be high on the priority list. Also, conservation is usually the cheapest source of power, what about retrofitting all public buildings to be more energy efficent. I would also like to see lots more wind facilities built, with national overides on local zoning to prevent the Kennedy's from vetoing projects off Nantucket etc.
"Wow, that was fast! You must have placed her on restriction and forced her to practice those chops!"
If anything I try to get her to practice less. It's as if she's trying to support the economy singlehandedly with her playing. It started before she began to sense anything was wrong though so that's probably not accurate. She got herself a chord book and taught herself to play without a guitar. We didn't know what the heck she was doing for a few months and then she came to us and asked sheepishly for a guitar. We gave it to her and she could play the damn thing without having ever touched one before.
Is anyone looking at Toll ? It seem as the insider can not sell enough shares . Reminds me of the Orange man from Countryfried.http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=TOL
Re petfood, it is still very high here. I'm paying 22 dollars for the large bag of Purina One now. The beginning of the year it was about 18 per bag. Some things have dropped like milk and meat but others stay very high.
mp writes:
From the last thread, let's say that Roubini's forecast is correct. If the economy drops during all of 2009, then say goodbye to the consensus forecast. The bottom would drop out of equities and we'd be on our way to SP 650.
If the bottom did fall out of equities, and you combine that loss in wealth with the 44% drop in residential prices Nouriel is talking about, you end up with a household sector that is nothing but smoking wreckage, wiped out.
mp | 01.08.09 - 9:45 pm | #
mp
That sounds about right, give or take a few points on the S&P.
Then say goodbye to the consensus forecast I said goodbye to that a long time ago.
You been to Asia lately? I've got a lot of pictures from my last trip to Beijing, all with that nice dreamy, romantic early morning fog look. Except it's not fog, it's pollution where you can't see buildings more than 3-4 blocks away.
There's a reason why they get reactors built in 1.5 years. And it's the same reason why they've got the horrid pollution in the 1st place.
I have a feeling that we'll all be looking back 10 years from now and seeing the downside to China building reactors in only 1.5 years without all that red tape. Say, nuclear leaks, earthquake because the reactor was built in a quake prone zone due to a lack of planning beforehand.
Granted there are a lot of downsides to the manner in which we build them here, but I wouldn't look to Asia as a blue-print for the model either.
Re: "e could play the damn thing without having ever touched one before."
Very weird indeed, perhaps you should take away the guitar and give her a book on genetics or have her watch stuff like this and lock her up for a few weeks; give her food and talk to her, but don't let her go anywhere until she performs some task, like:
Melamine is OK in baby formula - drink it up kids, but lets throw away EVERY stitch of used clothing for tykes under twelve because there might be a lead button on a few pieces - we can't just remove the buttons if there is a question.........
I think that it would be cruel if the bonds in the "stocks, bonds, and real estate" diversified portfolio were corporates and munis, and not long bonds.
...and oh look, Clarett is good friends with Goldman Sachs...
"We realized early on that in order to do the kind of development that we wanted to do, we needed a capital partner who was with us in everything, Hackett says. Still, to bolster some projects, Clarett brings in an institutional capital partner such as Goldman Sachs, ING Clarion, or Vornado Realty Trust."
At first glance, the town of Edwardsville, Ala., with a population of 194 people, might raise a few eyebrows with its bid to receive $375 million from the economic stimulus package...nearly $2 million per resident
From the last thread, let's say that Roubini's forecast is correct.
Roubini expertly calls the mortgage security meltdown and that makes him an expert on employment and GDP calls? I'll put this report on the shelf next to my 36,000 Dow book.
The Federal Reserve released the Factors Affecting Reserve Balances today
Admittedly, I feel that I'm falling off a cliff into a sea of paranoia. There are probably meds to deal with this. But remind me why I should believe anything published by the fed? As much as I try to understand concepts like quantitative easing, I struggle. I have no background in economics, accounting, or any other pertinent disciplines. My only frame of reference is software engineering, and the whole financial system looks like a brittle mess of spaghetti code that is degrading as each additional patch is added.
Each day the idea of hoarding precious metals and stockpiling ammo seems more reasonable. Is that what they call capitulation? Time for a rally?
From the official US gov stats: total US generation for 2006: 4,000,000 thousand megawatt hours. This includes coal, petro, natgas, nuke, hydro and the insignificant contribution from "renewables".
To get a sense of instantaneous generation capability, divide by number of hours in a year. This gives
4,000,000/(365*24) GW -> 450 GW
Depending on how exactly one chooses to do the counting, the proposal further up the thread would add 20-30% to the generation capability. Pretty aggressive, but not complete lunacy. In fact, if anyone is actually serious about moving to all-electric vehicles, much more than that will have to be built.
I think the confusion comes from the gov't stat. It is occasionally reported as 4,000,000 megawatthours but it is in fact "thousand megawatthours", or "gigawatthours".
Posted this a few days ago but since the topic of the consuensus estimate has come up again: New Fears for the New Year
analysts are falling all overthem selves to cut estimates. The early returns from Nov fiscal end firms awful. Never pay attention to the level of consensus earnings data, always look at the trends. Skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it is now. Shit, the consensus estimate is still for GROWTH in total net income in 2009 over 2008, mostly due to financials taking less of a hit in 09 vs. 08. Like that is really going to happen. But the cuts are every where. for 09 in Tech, seven ests increased, vs. 300+ cut, materials even worse.
Nuclear waste can be reprocessed, once we repeal some laws. We can run one type of nuclear reactors on the processed waste from an other type of reactor.
There is more to nuclear reactor technology than boiling light water reactors.
One could set up a few reprocessing plants in Nevada, Texas, Arizona or New Mexico.
About china- it can build french reactors in about 5-6 years (start to finish per reactor). The French built most of their nuclear reactors in less than 7 years (start to finish per reactor). So china is not cutting many corners with nuclear reactors, their coal power plants on the other hand are .. You know.
Sick and Tired Dude,you asked about improved and unimproved land prices in Napa and Sonoma counties 5-10 acres.$150k to $10 MM,depending,and I am serious.If you are serious( or halfway serious) let me know and I'll post a throwaway email address and you can let me know your wants and needs.
Lucifer(Unrated) writes: Nuclear waste can be reprocessed, once we repeal some laws. We can run one type of nuclear reactors on the processed waste from an other type of reactor.
OT: Consider that in 2003 a massive, widespread, power outage threw 50 million people in the Northeastern states and Ontario, Canada out of power - disrupting lives and the economy. Why did this happen? Because of a failure to "trim trees" in Eastlake, Ohio - now that's a dumb grid. And remember that only a few years earlier, the most innovative, high-tech industries in the world were shut down by blackouts caused by our primitive electricity grid. Overall, blackouts cost the U.S. on the order of $100 billion a year.
The smart gird is a not one idea but many technologies such as real-time pricing (smart meters), superconductive smart cable, and plug-n-play architecture that combine to produce a grid that is decentralized, self-healing, robust, and smart for both producers and consumers..
Re: "She got herself a chord book and taught herself to play without a guitar. We didn't know what the heck she was doing for a few months and then she came to us and asked sheepishly for a guitar."
That happened to me with a chainsaw book once (ok, that was late and not worth posting, but..)
Using nuclear reactors for oil sands operations has been suggested for over 30 years, but internal politics and indecisiveness has stopped them.
Comrade BR,
Many countries are doing it..
Comrade christina,
I thought that average female banter and petty rivalries had more in common with the behavior of a methamphetamine addict (trying to achieve nearly worthless goals).
I thought that average female banter and petty rivalries had more in common with the behavior of a methamphetamine addict (trying to achieve nearly worthless goals).
Lucifer | 01.08.09 - 10:53 pm
There's an older business model that still provides solid support and guidance for it's customers.
And they too are getting hammered.
Mutual Insurers.
So in the course of providing assistance to truly venerable institutions, I'd like to see a Fed program window called the Mutual Insurer Liquidity Fund.
They've been around for a while, but that doesn't mean that they can't still attract business with a little help.
" * Thursday, January 08, 2009 at 07:49:46 PM at epicenter
Location\t34.113°N, 117.294°W
Depth\t13.8 km (8.6 miles)
Region\tGREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIFORNIA
Distances\t
* 2 km (1 miles) S (183°) from San Bernardino, CA
* 6 km (4 miles) NNE (25°) from Colton, CA
* 8 km (5 miles) E (89°) from Rialto, CA
* 88 km (55 miles) E (86°) from Los Angeles Civic Center, CA"
Why not create a bailout fund for the perpetual machine industry? They have been rather underserved in the last 100 years. I mean, we are bailing frauds anyway.
I was so comfortable with the old one and I really don't deal well with change, so that will take some adjusting. It seems good to be on here, as it's been a bit.
I suppose I should put something on here, on topic?
A significant amount of balance sheet space is now dedicated to the direct lending to and purchase of securities from American International Group (AIG) and its subsidiaries.
"I don't see anything in the news about an earthquake."
5.0s aren't terribly newsworthy in the 1st world unless they happen on a thrust fault like Northridge. I felt a little rollin' here in a 4th floor condo in Mission Valley (San Diego about 90 mils south of the epicenter). My Aunt & Uncle in Redlands (pretty much right at ground zero) said they had a nice thump and a jolt. Surf was up in their pool, but no damage. Pictures din't even fall off the walls.
Also See: Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility
FACTBOX-The Fed's evolving liquidity toolkit FACTBOX-The Fed's evolving liquidity toolkit
| Markets
| US Markets
| Reuters
The U.S. Federal Reserve said on
Wednesday it was expanding and tweaking the parameters of its
money market credit facility to include a wider array of
investors and keep the program viable even with money market
yields at rock-bottom levels.
The Money Market Investor Funding Facility was authorized
in October as a way to keep credit flowing to mutual funds.
The program will now be open to other money market
investors, including certain U.S.-based investment funds,
government investment pools and common trust funds.
The Fed continues to create and fine-tune a number of
programs to support credit availability at a time financial
market functioning remains impaired.
Now we come to the part of the bailout where we have to start deciding what to bailout next, and what can safely be allowed to go splat.
The fun part is that you don't get to know which are the winners and losers, because the folks in charge haven't decided yet.
Now, in a private email yesterday I posited the State of Arizona will need a bailout within two and a half months.
There is no practical way to cut the budget within the short period to insolvency, and technically the state can not borrow without statutory changes. The republicans are in charge of the legislature and will have to eat major crow just to pass legislation enabling emergency borrowing.
Right now the politicians are so far from reality, they still think they can stimulate with a minor tax cut and avoid this disaster. Ideology has triumphed over reality.
Now things get interesting, but the common person has not yet panicked.
bummed I sold my KOL. should have been greedier. the fact that coal investment hasn't come up once in this thread is a nice sign that it still has some room to run.
also wish I'd picked up some DJP today, the aggies are spunky overnight.
So are we just more aware of the seismic activity because we're sitting around blogging all the time, or are these precursors to the next large quake,..or even the "Big One"? Anyone heard a prediction yet? BTW, nice welcome for the FDIC crew, eh!
Uncle Billy, I'm confused. Does this mean that the TARP recipients, instead of lending out the money, are creating their own development projects and business entities to pay TARP to themselves? That's sure what it sounds like.
Wall Street CEO To-Do List:
1. Apply for TARP
2. Take cut off top for salaries and bonuses
3. Take another cut to pay dividends to self and other shareholders
4. Use more TARP to buy back shares, raising shares, then sell my own holdings
5. Invest windfall in new development company to be funded by TARP
6. Take cut of TARP as salary and bonuses as CEO of development company
7. Take another cut as shareholder of development company
8. Run all of my living expenses through the TARP-funded entity
9. Break ground on phony-baloney development funded by TARP
10. Continue to siphon TARP in all of the above ways until development project goes bust.
11. Apply for more TARP...
aaaggggghhhhhhh!!!!! (exclamation points for Tanta)
Feck: I don't know. I don't even want to think about this anymore. I'm having of gigantic woodticks that are feasting on us, and will completely drain us dry and then just fall off and go live behind thick walls.
i've a strong advocate of a focus on the low-octane variety. no pretty trees, hills or streams out there, nor any people. the canadians have more thermal stuff in any case.
With 11 days left for Bush the Minor's term, will the big one hit San Fran and fulfill all 3 dire warnings predicted by some gov't dept. pre-GWB WH: a major terrorist attack in NYC, a major hurricane hitting NO, and a major earthquake collapsing SF. Will it be major major major? Any intrade?
Rush Limbaugh: "But I have to say when it comes, for example, to the housing crisis, the sub-prime mortgage business blowing up, Mr. Vice President, this is largely a Democrat Party scandal. Your administration tried numbers of different times early on in the early part of this decade to get new regulators in there, because the warning signs were all over the place."
Dick Cheney: "No, I agree, Rush. I think the -- we did see fairly early on that there was a potential crisis in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. I can remember Alan Greenspan, when he was chairman of the Federal Reserve, voicing concerns to us that this is a potential major problem if there was systemic failure here. So we put together a reform package, but Congress simply wouldn't touch it."
Kona: They sound evil enough even without Madoff & Co.
I was going after the Dutch connection. It was sparked by the fact that Clarett partnered with Nederlander (just a linguistic launching pad... no aspersions intended) at one point and that ING is a Dutch company. And the fact that it looks like pots of money are being exported, hidden, and cleaned in the Antilles. And always, in the back of my head I've been trying to figure out why Roland Arnall (Ameriquest, Bush Buddy) was sent to the Netherlands of all places. Cushy, yes, but why there in particular? Lots of frayed odds and ends.
The Los Angeles City Council has unanimously approved a $400-million mixed-use green development totaling 1.1 million sf called Blvd6200 that will feature more than 1,000 apartments
The seven-acre development site for Blvd6200 is owned by the Nederlander Organization, which also owns the Pantages Theatre and recently completed a restoration of the cultural and historical landmark. The land assemblage was completed without eminent domain or displacement of any residential tenants.
The Nederlander Organization, the largest controller of Broadway productions in New York City, originated with the purchase of the Detroit Opera House in 1922 by the Nederlander Family and continues to operate to this day.
Robert E. Nederlander, age 63, a director since May 1989.
Mr. Nederlander was elected by the Board of Directors on November 16,
1993 to serve as a Vice Chairman of the Board, having previously
served as Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer of the
Company since May 1989. He resigned as Vice Chairman on October 18,
1996. He is also President and director of Nederlander Organization,
Inc., New York, an owner and operator of one of the world's largest
chains of theaters, since November 1981; President of Nederlander
Television and Film Productions, Inc. since October 1985; Partner in
New York Yankees Baseball Club since 1973 and Managing General
Partner from September 13, 1990 through December 31, 1991; director
and Chairman of the Board of Riddell Sports, Inc. since April 1988;
Chairman of the Board of MEGO Financial Corporation since January
1988; and a director of MEGO Mortgage Corp., News Communications,
Inc. and HFS Incorporated since 1995.
Mr Bini Smaghi noted with annoyance that Anglo-Saxon commentators now use the term "PIGS" to describe the eurozone's Club Med bloc of Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain, which all have large current deficits or public debts.
...the politicians are so far from reality, they still think they can stimulate with a minor tax cut and avoid this disaster...Now things get interesting, but the common person has not yet panicked.
Citizen AllenM 11:25 pm
i agree
the kind of money (debt) needed to stem the tide on this crash boggles the mind...one or two trillion aint gonna do it
over at big picture, recently barry rithhotz calculated that us households had lost in excess of 7 trillion dollars worth of wealth via losses on investment/savings and home valuations
we are hemmoraging out and congress and "prez to be" are talking about a quart of plasma
Mego Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: MEGO) today announced plans to launch a new corporate identity, including changing its name to Leisure Industries Corporation.
Always good reference articles. I think this was predictable based on the Architectural Billing posted by CR. But I have recently moved to Dallas and wonder if you have any personal thoughts on the local market
Two friends/families, $200K/yr indian casino food service execs, one refi'd to the top and the other bought the RRE top, both underwater 200K with helocs above that, have quit the dead casino biz and are thinking BK.
I'll be astounded at any stimulus plan that can restore lost earnings such as these, and their tax payments, and sad to see personal finances imploding while a case is building for lower corporate wage, material and borrowing costs, and higher equity prices.
Kona: You hit something interesting there. One of the directors at that company is Cheryl Mills: "Ms. Mills was Deputy Counsel to the former President of the United States, William J. Clinton. From 1993 to 1996, Ms. Mills also served as Associate Counsel to the President."
There might be a Madoff connection in there too with the Smiths.
Love this Prechter quote from the last thread: "I can't think of a single aspect of the situation that is less bearish than in 1929."
I've been saying the same thing for a few years now, and it seems like everyone here is starting to come around to the same conclusion. I don't know whether to laugh or cry, because this is one time I would've loved to been wrong.
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) writes:
Love this Prechter quote from the last thread: "I can't think of a single aspect of the situation that is less bearish than in 1929."
Okay, podnahs. Carry on with your due diligence and let me know when it's time to call in the SWAT team. We'll serve high-risk warrants on them robber barons. Might have to lob a few concussion grenades into that den of thieves.
Comrade Bear today there is greater market connectivity. That is a good thing. You can also use massive debt as an asset by threatening to default or block imports
Could Obama be barking up the wrong tree with the plans for massive infrastructure investments?
What makes me thing he might be is that the construction industry isn't necessarily the kind of jobs creation that will pay good long term dividends for the economy as a whole. In the 30's those types of jobs were going to be needed in the ensuing decades, and the structures built could even be considered new technology for the day. (Highways and bridges for transport using newfangled cars, dams to provide electricity for newfangled appliances, etc.)
Not only that, the labor, safety, environmental, and liability costs are much higher than they used to be.
These things would be considered today to be "old" technology, and the potential ROI much more limited. So you end up creating a bunch of jobs which go nowhere after you are done with your "infrastructure stimulus".
Wouldn't investments in newer industries be more rewarding? Perhaps invest in healthcare, curing AIDS, curing cancer, preventing autism, and the like, or new sources of energy, or heck even invest in improving the capabilities of Linux. Perhaps investing in semiconductors or software, education techniques, asteroid detection (especially potentially earth-bound) or something like that.
But, infrastructure? Basically just roads n' stuff?
What I'm trying to say is we could benefit much more in the long term by investing in jobs that might actually be needed in the future and which provide a more far-reaching benefit.
lucifer, I enjoy your economics and finance comments. I even enjoy some of your other comments, but I recognize that they can be provocative and could be offensive to some women bloggers here. The women on this board haven't done anything bad to you, and are good contributors. Do yourself a favor and give 'em a break. When you feel like taking a jab at your ex, write to her instead of posting here. No need to reply. Back to the on-topic stuff.....
What the hell? From the developing scandal involving "pay to play" no-bid muni auctions.
Christopher Cox, the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, has said oversight of the municipal bond markets is inadequate, and has urged Congress to take steps to protect both investors and taxpayers. Congress has not taken up the initiative.
Developed by The Clarett Group, a New York-based firm, the $400 million mixed-use project will be environmentally sustainable (LEED qualified), and will serve as a model for an interactive lifestyle.
The seven acre development site for Blvd6200 is owned by The Nederlander Organization, headed by James Nederlander, Sr. The land assemblage was completed without eminent domain or displacement of any residential tenants. Nederlander also owns the Pantages Theatre and recently completed a full-restoration of the cultural and historical landmark that is Los Angeles version of Broadway.
Ahawhahaha:
he project is being built on property leased for 99 years from the Nederlander Organization, Inc., which owns several venues for live performances, including the Pantages. The theater opened as an Art Deco outpost in Hollywood in 1930. It served as a combined live theater and movie palace and from 1949-59 was the site of the Academy Awards. It received a $10 million restoration in 2000.
Named as one of New York Citys top 15 real estate development companies, The Clarett Group is recognized for its high-quality residential and mixed-use developments in metropolitan New York and Washington D.C.
The company expects to break ground on BLVD6200 in early 2008.
Denninger making claims that FHLB possibly Hotlanta on the skids.
John Jansen at ATC mentioned today that there had been a rumor floating.
It was my impression that because FHLB loans are fully secured (FWIW), that they are first on the resolution totem pole, even before the FDIC takes its cut.
But if Congress does allow lien-stripping, then the FHLBs are toast, and plans need to be made for their eventual dissolution.
The Enhanced Note Sale is the sale of a secured Promissory Note (secured by a troubled hotel) which is "enhanced" by a cooperative Borrower giving a deed-in-lieu of foreclosure to the Lender or a Buyer of the Note. The Note and security are left in place through a two-tiered subsidiary structure used by the Lender or Buyer, with title insurance endorsements to prevent merger of title when the affiliated parties acquire both the Note and related Mortgage or Trust Deed (by purchase from the Lender) and title to the property itself (by deed-in-lieu from the Borrower).
And that is that, goodnight for me as well and if this mattered to anyone, please send checks to CR or donate online and try to not just piss and moan about this, just give him your cash and get on with your lives!
Always good reference articles. I think this was predictable based on the Architectural Billing posted by CR. But I have recently moved to Dallas and wonder if you have any personal thoughts on the local market
LawyerL | 01.09.09 - 12:17 am | #
I have a million thoughts on the local market. What do you want to know? Have you bought? Are you looking? I have a room for rent w/private bath $450.
Perhaps invest in healthcare, curing AIDS, curing cancer, preventing autism, and the like, or new sources of energy, or heck even invest in improving the capabilities of Linux.
Warning: Patent wonkish policy piece I'm working on.
Weather Helm:
IMO, one of the potential drawbacks in investing in IP intensive industries is that there's often no way to "capture" the investment from a GDP perspective because of IP havens. Ultimately, the "investment" often becomes a net drain on GDP.
For example, let's say that BigPharma develops a cure for cancer. BigPharma then stashes the patent in Ireland, where there is a 0% tax rate on patent royalties. The Irish subsidiary then licenses the patent to the American subsidiary at an inflated price. So now, the drug gets priced at a minimal US profit with most of the profits paid in royalties to the Irish subsidiary. But of course, the earnings get reflected in the consolidated balance sheet even though the dollars never touch American hands.
Look at where Ireland is on this chart of national exporters. A country of 4M people with 10% of the US exports! Twice as much as Kuwait.
If roads and bridges aren't gonna do it, may I suggest fiber optics to every neighbourhood? High speed Internet, TV, audio/video communication and pr0n for everyone. With the bailout for porn industry, we've got everything covered.
Since late 2007 the stock market has obviously been a lagging economic indicator, not leading. It now reflects the reality as of Spring of 2008.
MrM
So in the same way that we are now destroying "wealth" instead of creating it (negative vs. positive feedback) maybe the whole market psychology ("collective hunch") has had a phase reversal as well and we are now hunching in the rearview mirror of denial.
We are through the looking glass, that's for sure.
"On top of that, some of downtown Seattle's biggest companies are contracting or worse. JPMorgan Chase, which took over failed Washington Mutual last fall, already has said it will give back all of WaMu's leased space downtown
That may not be all: Matt Christian, a senior director at Cushman & Wakefield, said he anticipates the new owner also will put up for lease 500,000 to 800,000 square feet at WaMu Center, the failed bank's 940,000-square-foot headquarters."
Yep. While everyone can visualize oil and cheap Chinese crap as part of the trade deficit, it's hard to imagine a product manufactured in the US by an "American" company being an import.
Basel II: The oil companies have been running a similar complicated scam involving Liberian-flagged vessels, subsidiaries, refining, etc., for years now. Evading U.S. taxes. Individuals doing the same are being flushed out in Germany, the Benelux & Scandinavian countries, and the U.S., but none have gone after the transnats. They're bleeding tax money and ought to shut the havens down.
I suspect doom and gloom returns tomorrow morning with the jobs report!
Brilliant! ha!
I thought steve was doing fine?
Long term helicopter rentals and leases are up 200% year on year
740k loss.
Silly CR. Didn't you know unemployment is a lagging indicator? If tomorrow's number is terrible it just reflects that in this new age of instant business dynamics, all the job losses are about over and the recovery is set to begin. Just watch CNBC and you will learn the truth of this.
Dripping sarcasm, obviously.
CR wrote: "I suspect doom and gloom returns tomorrow morning with the jobs report!"
You mean cliff-diving!
Bernanke's done great work. I nominate him for the second annual "C. Mongomery Burns award for outstanding acheievment in the field of excellence".
It really shot up. Is that about the time of the Lehman failure?
Aren't assets good things(tm)? Isn't that what most Americans spend their life accumulating?
Market will go to the Moon with bad job numbers. To the Moon I tell you.
I'll take a 610k loss and a triple-digit up day on the Dow. Have to factor in all those birth-death model creations after all.
Just highlighting something a little positive among all the grim news.
Im a Bear now and I dont like looking on the bright side until spring and then its fun in the sun at the beach.
Ill pass on the Kool-Aid this spring also.
Sure glad I won't lose my job. I swore off work years ago!
Bah! a 1.3% decline. Someone obviously found some navel lint listed as a TSLF asset, and accidently asked someone why it was stored in a box in the vault with a AAA card taped to it.
Nostrovia,
What with only 912k job losses in December it's already priced in . Dow up 900 tomorrow
Did the assets at the FED go down because they stopped buying or sold some? Or did they "mark to market" some of their crap paper and thus the drop? The FED should be well versed in Level III accounting by now.
Credit enima is coming..... writes:
What with only 912k job losses in December it's already priced in . Dow up 900 tomorrow
Credit enima is coming..... | 01.08.09 - 8:33 pm | #
If that happens Ill be dreaming of some delicious salmon (SDS).
Fed balance sheet down ?...
cause the cash crunch in December for year end business is over ... and business has found its way around the stoppages in credit supply ... those that have a chance of survival.
The deflation will continue its ugly work as it has.
Where's the Bank Holiday ?
There's no time to lose, I heard her say
Catch your dreams before they slip away
Dying all the time
Lose your dreams
And you may lose your mind.
Ain't life unkind?
Goodbye, Ruby Tuesday
But the Fed did decide to include state and local government investment pools in the MMIFF and Obama wants the Fed to create a muni commercial paper funding facility. Who knows where we go from here.
The poor jobs report tomorrow is mainly because of the bad weather. Unemployment numbers will improve dramatically when the skies aren't so overcast, and the temperature a little higher. Or in the second half, whichever comes first.
"This is a little improvement ..."
In related items:
Radiation from the nuclear blast was 300 rads/sec but has decreased to 295 rads/sec...This is a little improvement ...
The speed of fire racing towards the children's hospital just 10 miles away was 30 mph, but has decreased to 26 mph....This is a little improvement ...
The height of the flood waters was 40 ft, but has receeded to 38 feet...This is a little improvement ...
Nostrovia,
Bond Girl: Now that no one has to worry about rate cuts, the Fed will follow the ECB in innovative attempts to get credit out there by circumventing existing markets which have turned from liquid to sludge
The St. Louis Fed must have sold its solid gold doors (Yes, they really exist on the inside of the St. Louis Fed building).
Stiglitz has a vid on bloomy. I am too afraid to watch. He say's Obama's stimulus isn't enough. Hell, Obama hasn't even given a figure. You can't give a socialist enough free money. They always need more.
and just who is the party auditing the Fed's 'balance' sheet?
Bush's dog Barney?
Lies, damn lies and Fed. Reserve accounting
It's going to be a "kitchen sink jobs report".
I hear they are using Madoffs accountant!
The employment revisions from earlier months should be interesting.
"and just who is the party auditing the Fed's 'balance' sheet?"
My understanding is that the firm came highly recommended from a former SEC Chairman...Bernie something IIRC.
Nostrovia,
this is Bush's last chance to make a poz. bio on employment. I bet we see negative unemployment.
I think this is a good sign, but I'm still inclined to think this thing comes in waves. Things have looked like they were improving for a week or two here and there in the past few months, and then it gets going again. The fundamentals of our economy have not changed.
Do you still believe the official numbers, as in "believe they are a true reflection of reality" as opposed to financial rules and accounting changes?
perhaps the Fed is withdrawing 'money' in an attempt to quell inflatio
This otta blow a tire in the futures markets ahead of the jobs data
"Chevron warns of sharply lower earnings"
Chevron warns of sharply lower fourth-quarter results - MarketWatch
Anyone interested in what is really happening at the Fed should read this ftalphaville post :
FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » Whitney: TARP funds go down the downgrade drain
Bondgirl - what did you make of the German e3T bond failure yesterday? I was talking to some people who said basically they fkd up the pricing. But it seemed to me that marginal pricing concerns could not account for the entire issue going south.
Anyhow, much to some people's delight, I am going to be contributing less here, having taken on a new role in audit and risk oversight in quite a big outfit. My first week's papers look horrific... and measured in stack inches (!)
So, looking like a busy Q1, after which we will have solved all the problems and have a mellow Spring and golden Summer...
No? What? Whaddyamean "systemic"??
C'mon!
C
from ftalphaville :
"Whitney: TARP funds go down the downgrade drain
La lutte continue.
Forget the short-lived buzz of $300bn in TARP stimulus, pain for the banks is far from over. Real deleveraging is only just beginning to gather speed; the world economy has yet to enter its worst months, and there are certainly more writedowns to come. "
Where is the bank Holiday ?
My prediction-
Short of starting the following (at least) in the next 8 months (and finishing them in less than 8 years), we are f**ked.
1] rebuilding, total refurbishment of all road/ bridge/ overpasses.
2] building at least 100 1GW nuclear reactors + 100 1GW coal plants + upgrading electrical grid based on good engineering principles.
3] cracking down on escalating medical costs (that do not increase quality and duration of life)
4] Helicopter money to anyone with a half decent idea on creating jobs or developing newer technology.
5] using nimbys, special interests, enviro- misanthropists, "activists" (the rich ones only), banksters as shark food.
6] Discrediting ivy leaguers forever.. we cannot depend on anointed priests (religious or secular). Most of human progress has been accidental.
Bill Gross will be the head cheerleader of a TARP for municipalities, especially in CA if he's gonna make his bets pay off.
PIMCO's Gross says muni bonds and TIPS attractive
| Reuters
His argument is compelling but munis haven't bottomed yet, me thinks.
anyone there..
Does anyone know anything about the Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports that a host of state, county municipality, and other agencies generate? It seems to me there are many pretty big Ponzie schemes going on here too. My county has over 3 billion in net assets, yet they are laying off 400 teachers, What gives? Here's a snapshot of our balance sheet:
http://hosting04.imagecross.com/image-hosting-17/9001p151.JPG
Here's a great site for checking up on what your locality has:
http://www.cafrman.com/
lucifer --
200 GW of power.
In 2007 the US on average produced at 476,991,758 Watts
You're talking 200,000,000,000. I hope you can count zeroes.
I also take it you have no concept or large project planning because the patience and financing of even 1/1000th of that generation ability is something the United States government does not even have, and good luck selling the special bonds to finance the production of a market you're about to flood with supply
This is just a pea and shell game for Marketable Securities, which are illiquid and worthless and then these assclowns pump up the value and suggest they have future value, which is horse-shit!
Check this video out:
The Mess That Greenspan Made
C,
Congrats on the position. I hope you continue to find time to post.
Based on a overheard conversation
Mom - 62 years old, relocated, trying to sell house. Admin staff
Son - late 30's, Pottery Barn HQ staff, now bartender. Owns 4 bedroom house.
M - what happened to your bonus $
from PB you got last year?
M - What your cards are maxed out? I thought you were going to use just one!
M - Your behind on your carpayment?
M - OK, so the bartending job was $8 an hour and tips...
M - OK, so the biz at the bar is drying up? They are cutting your hours?
M - OK, honey. I will.
This is great too:
Newstopia explains the Reserve Bank
The Mess That Greenspan Made: Newstopia explains the Reserve Bank
So you are saying the US uses 477 MW (477 * 10^6)? I think it us you who does not have a concept of numbers
"In 2007 the US on average produced at 476,991,758 Watts"
Look, China can build Areva-designed 1 GW nuclear reactors in about 5-6 years at a cost of 1.5 B per reactor. They use the same components (made by the same manufacturers) as those used in french reactors.How can they do it? Slave labor.. nahh.. they are cheap not stupid.
The problem in building decent nuclear reactors is excessive regulation and legal problems with reprocessing spent fuel.
Does doom and gloom mean Santelli and Liesman are more likely to kill each other tomorrow?
Counterpointer,
I don't know - my thoughts are in line with yours. But governments are flooding the market with paper, and this kind of thing is bound to happen.
Congrats on your new position, although I will definitely miss your active commentary
Don't work too hard.
The problem in building decent nuclear reactors is excessive regulation and legal problems with reprocessing spent fuel.
and politics, lack of design standardization and other logistical errors compounded by nimbys, enviros, lawyers and a technologically naive population.
Aren't assets good things(tm)? Isn't that what most Americans spend their life accumulating?
asun | 01.08.09 - 8:27 pm | #
The fed has (is?) a balance sheet, the basic liabilities are bank reserves and federal reserve notes, aka the money supply. If the assets are going up like that I guarantee you it is not because of an increase in equity.
lucifer --
You just don't understand the basic units, before you even begin your pie in the sky dreaming.
Energy is not the same as Power. Energy is in WattHours and Power is in Watts.
All you do is whine about elite ivy leaguers and environmentalists. You're expertise begins and ends with uneducated complaints of groups that have offended you.
I have a feeling that you never made it into the ivy league because you were not smart enough (student aid ftw!), and the city made your replant a tree that you cut down and used for firewood
Here comes the dollars for O's stimulus package...
Swiss Bank UBS closing hidden offshore holdings of American clients; Will shut 19,000 accounts. Developing...
Hopefully UBS will return the money
mmckinl(Excellent) writes:
Anyone interested in what is really happening at the Fed should read this ftalphaville post
Thank you very much for this steer!
Counterpointer(Excellent) writes:
Anyhow, much to some people's delight, I am going to be contributing less here, having taken on a new role in audit and risk oversight in quite a big outfit. My first week's papers look horrific... and measured in stack inches (!)
We'll all miss your youthful ambition, enthusiasm and insight. Good luck.
LAM - is there a link?
Michael,
If you are just looking at the CAFR, you are not getting a complete understanding of where a governmental entity stands. CAFRs are a snapshot of the past. A municipality's actions now are going to be oriented toward how their current revenues will measure up to their budget and what future revenues look like. They are not going to base current spending off of the information in their financial statements. There is a lag there too. For example, most state FYs end June 30th. What has happened since June 30th? A heck of a lot, and fast.
Can we talk about a sex stimulus plan now, or is that a topic for later?
Look we could build 100 - 1.1 GW Areva-designed nuclear reactors + 5 big fuel reprocessing plants in the USA in the next 8 years. Creates about 10,000 jobs per plant (building stages) + about 3-4,000 jobs running the thing..
We could build them in parts of the US that are not overtly seismically active + low population density + no hurricanes or large nasty weather systems.. say texas, new mexico, arizona, nevada, rural michigan, rural ohio, north and south dakota, minnesota, rural SE states, and use them to supply energy to more energy hungry states.
Could power a lot of electric vehicles..
P- The 1.1 GW Areva reactors are the most numerous of the Areva family and have a very good operational record + lots of user experience.
Er, a little of topic, but related to assets doing something or other (via laland blog):
Senior-living apartments sold to New York landlord | L.A. Land | Los Angeles Times
Now take a look at this. A brand new, entitled 1,000,000,000 SF mixed use project in L.A. Whuh?
The Clarett Group
Who are these people?
Counterpointer, ditto what CBR said, good luck and keep in touch when you can.
001 writes:
LAM - is there a link?
Just posted no more info yet.
DRUDGE REPORT 2010®
UB,
Give this to the master:
F#/Gb m GUITAR CHORDS
Cookies on me!
Anonymous --
In 2007 the US on average produced at 476,991,758 Watts
You have a reference for that?
According to Wikipedia:
"In 2007, summer demand for electricity was 783 GW and 640 GW for winter."
Counting zeroes, indeed...
lucifer,
There's a site called
LAM - thanks -
...cut me off
but I thought of something better
lucifer,
<a href="http://www.theoildrum.com>The Oil Drum just called. It wants its topic back.
The name Clarett evolved from Mr. Klar-feld's fondness for wine and a combinationof their two surnames. In their new busi-ness, established in 1999, Ms. Hackett was"the outside person" handling marketing,sales and the financial relationships. Untilhe died of cancer in 2004 at age 60 "a hor-rible loss,"
Nova - much appreciated. I thought most of my comments were priced in the CR market as loonball...
There's some stuff I'll bring to th CR community this weekend. Just need to figure the proprietary boundaries, and where we go next.
BTW I'm missing a good Asia commenter here. If anyone has friends to bring in, by all means do .,...!
C
anon: Gracias Muchacho. She's got her first gig this Sunday. Some professional musician types came in to her rehearsal a few days ago and were pretty impressed.
CP: check in at least twice a week!
From a previous thread:
Does the Second Law of Thermodynamics apply in a gross sense to economic systems?
The Second Law (Entropy) applies to any ordered system, as there's always cost to overcome the naturally preferred disordered state.
C-
Good luck with the new position. Now I won't need to use the dictionary as much...
Bond Girl
I'm wondering if there is any validity to the notion presented here by Walter J. Burien that there is plenty of money to be had found in CAFR Reports. It seems to me that he outlines it pretty clearly in this video:
CAFR - Walter Burien - The Biggest Game in Town - documentary
From the last thread, let's say that Roubini's forecast is correct. If the economy drops during all of 2009, then say goodbye to the consensus forecast. The bottom would drop out of equities and we'd be on our way to SP 650.
If the bottom did fall out of equities, and you combine that loss in wealth with the 44% drop in residential prices Nouriel is talking about, you end up with a household sector that is nothing but smoking wreckage, wiped out.
If the bottom did fall out of equities, and you combine that loss in wealth with the 44% drop in residential prices Nouriel is talking about, you end up with a household sector that is nothing but smoking wreckage, wiped out.
And because pension funds and insurance companies are also heavily dependent in real estate and equities...
Re: "She's got her first gig this Sunday"
Wow, that was fast! You must have placed her on restriction and forced her to practice those chops!
Nice to see you here.
mp, bingo, you must have been chatting with your bud conjure. HH sector is basically kaput, the vast majority will never be able to retire, compititon for wal-mart greeter jobs is going to be intense. Go long Ralston Purina, they are going to be selling lots of cat food...with no comenseurate rise in kitty litter sales.
...
Council of Mayors asks for $96 billon from President-elect Obama
...
UB,
Check out this weird musical thing; maybe everyone has one now, who can say?
YouTube - Equalibrum - Time Management (Akai Mpd24 Beat)
mp,
"If the bottom did fall out of equities, and you combine that loss in wealth with the 44% drop in residential prices Nouriel is talking about, you end up with a household sector that is nothing but smoking wreckage, wiped out."
I'm going back to playing Fallout 3...'Tis a happier, sunnier place.
Nostrovia,
"And because pension funds and insurance companies are also heavily dependent in real estate and equities..."
Sure. You've got an absolute mess.
Recall CR's analysis from last year. If prices dropped 40% the equity of all mortgage-holders would be wiped-out in aggregate. Then, CR felt that the drop wouldn't exceed 35%, and he was way below consensus.
Counterpointer:
Good luck with your new position; never could quite figure out what you did =)
Or, for the most part, what you were saying, perhaps because my socio-linguistic skills are ahem elementary.
mp, you always brighten my day! Is it still 4 seconds to midnight?
mp
What is the economic equivalent of a german shepherd, mustang, and a shotgun?
Yah.. But reactor output is in W (as in say 1.1 GW- 1.1 gigawatt). I am aware that electric power is measured in Watt.Hours.. Reactor output is usually reported in W (optimal thermal output), conversion to electricity is another matter- but using standard turbine systems you can get 40 ish % conversion..capacity utilization + down time are also important.
So either you were "careless" when you "forgot" to add the proper units in your original numbers- or you "misunderstood" my statement.
Are you incompetent or disingenuous?
//You just don't understand the basic units, before you even begin your pie in the sky dreaming.
Energy is not the same as Power. Energy is in WattHours and Power is in Watts.//
Hmm.. you do not understand my opposition to ivy leagues.. google "cognitive dissonance" - such places tend to breed that. The reality is that ivy leagues are about politics and connection - not excellence.
One of the main reason the US is doomed is because feminized, smug, do-nothing, invent excuses, pretend to be knowledgeable losers like you are in control. If chinese and indians can build those nuclear plants on schedule, you should be able to.. If you cannot, you should not be allowed to call yourself an expert at anything.
PS- If do-nothing f**kers like you were allowed to have their way in the past, we would still be riding horses to the local farmers market.
//All you do is whine about elite ivy leaguers and environmentalists. You're expertise begins and ends with uneducated complaints of groups that have offended you.
I have a feeling that you never made it into the ivy league because you were not smart enough (student aid ftw!), and the city made your replant a tree that you cut down and used for firewood//
ever been a better time to smoke em you got em the balls.....
So, what's the takeaway from all this? It suggests to me that, even if there is a recovery, there's no recovery.
After all, Joe and Jane Sixpack are 70% of GDP.
IMO, for the market to go down tomorrow, job loss report has to be super big. Close to 800K?
And because pension funds and insurance companies are also heavily dependent in real estate and equities...
MADISON Retired Wisconsin state workers will see their pension checks decrease for the first time ever this year thanks to a more than 26 percent loss in state investments.
The state of Wisconsin Investment Board announced today that pension payments will be cut between 2.5 percent and 3 percent for retirees invested in the states core fund. The exact amount will be set in March and take effect in May.
Retirees invested in the variable fund will see that portion of their pension checks drop by 39 percent to 44 percent,
greenbaypressgazette.com | Green Bay | Green Bay Press-Gazette
146,000 Buzzing Up North...
Back to the topic-
So will we lose more than 5 million jobs by june 2009?
--"What is the economic equivalent of a german shepherd, mustang, and a shotgun?"
I have absolutely no idea and Conjure isn't here to tell me.
I eagerly await the answer.
Any guess on the GDP value of the housing overhang?
On CSPAN now, the acting CBO director is I kid you not "Mr. Sunshine" now wonder we get overly optimistic economic assessments (although the CBO has generally been better than other DC types, but that is damming with faint praise)
That's realy good news. Inflation in 2010 is going to be only 20%. LOL
God how I wish the "deflationistas" were right!
OT – The current copy of Foreign Policy arrived in my mail today. CR is listed under the section Expert Sitings. The web address is: Foreign Policy: Error for anyone who is interested in reading the sentence.
Also, Roubini is exactly 30 pages earlier with an article entitled Warning: More Doom Ahead.
I am more amused than I have any right to be.
Hmmm... Clarett partnered with Prudential Real Estate Investors in 2002. This seems to be where the equity comes from. The guy who runs it is a member of PREA.
Pension Real Estate Association (PREA) - Welcome
Pension Real Estate Association
So this is what's happening to pension money these days?
And the lender? Funneling tarp money into financing these things? Who is the lender?
I don't feel too good.
"I suspect doom and gloom returns tomorrow morning with the jobs report!"
WooHoo...futures will go thru the roof!
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
The Oil Drum just called. It wants its topic back.
Good one, sir.
Though I must agree with the above poster (lucifer?) that if we're going to be spending trillions, energy infrastructure is probably as good as anything. Well, at least better than p*ssing it away on stimulating another round of McMansion-building (phone ringing... it's the HBB).
Retired Wisconsin state workers will see their pension checks decrease for the first time ever this year thanks to a more than 26 percent loss in state investments.
Wait until the equity losses get reflected in the insurance premiums. You'll pay 20% more for your house that decreased 20% in value.
Broker,
"God how I wish the "deflationistas" were right!"
No you don't. It's why you continue to cling to the inflatiion fantasy.
;P
Nostrovia,
"I suspect doom and gloom returns tomorrow morning with the jobs report!"
I expect doom and gloom to return tomorrow when Satanson wakes up.
An article on the Bloomberg website today suggests that Asia will have a "V-shape" recovery from the current economic crisis, rebounding in 2010. This is opposed to a "U-shape" recovery, which would presumably take a little longer.
May I suggest another alphabetic possibility? What if the "recovery," not just in Asia, but globally, is shaped more like a big capital L?
No doubt the suggestion that we have reached fundamental limits to economic growth is as unpalatable today as was the initial forecast, issued back in 1972, that such limits would be met during this century. The famous Club of Rome report, which sold more copies than any other environmental book in history, was vilified almost immediately by pro-growth think tanks in Washington, which organized a highly successful PR takedown during the 1980s. Today, it is impossible to mention the phrase "limits to growth" in public without hearing a dismissive outburst from somewhere within earshot. Never mind the follow-up studies that have shown that the primitive computer-based analysis on which the original report was based was on the right trackwhich is to say that the freight train of industrial civilization is on the wrong track, and headed for history's biggest "splat."
mp,when consumer spending is 20% of GDP building new cat food processing plants will have a substantial effect...
The dollar headed for its first weekly loss against the yen in three weeks before a U.S. payroll report that may show the economy lost jobs every month in 2008 and the unemployment rate rose to a 16-year high.
Wow there's alot of built up anger in Hell .lucifer you should paint hell over to a more warmer color . Red is the warmest of all colors. Red is the color most chosen by extroverts and one of the top picks of males. On the negative side red can mean temper or anger. In China, red is the color of prosperity and joy. Brides wear red and front doors are often painted red. Red is Tuesday's color. Red roses symbolize passionate love. Ruby rings should be worn on the left hand. Red is the color of Mars. This planet is known as the God of War.Just kidding ...http://crystal-cure.com/red.html
"Council of Mayors asks for $96 billon from President-elect Obama"
Each and every Mayor should send out a proposal to all local voters:
Send a check by X date or we will slash all budgets by X %.
Most folks will opt for less spending even though it means slashing the services.
Because when a rich 'educated' white person [Club of Rome] with eugenic fantasies mentions "limits to growth" I am reminded of the poor record of such "experts" at predicting the future!
//Today, it is impossible to mention the phrase "limits to growth" in public without hearing a dismissive outburst from somewhere within earshot. Never mind the follow-up studies that have shown that the primitive computer-based analysis on which the original report was based was on the right trackwhich is to say that the freight train of industrial civilization is on the wrong track, and headed for history's biggest "splat."//
Inflation Gnaws at Pet Food Companies
Inflation Gnaws at Pet Food Companies
Pet owners, get ready for sticker shock. Retailers and manufacturers are hiking pet food prices, and the cost of kibble is expected to climb even higher in coming months.
WTF, we have deflation in our economy and pet food and human food are continuing to go up? This will cause riots at some point, with dogs and cats fighting like all that ... never mind
Lucifer,
First lets get Yucca Mt up and running with special rail lines to it that avoid bringing the waste through the heart of LV. Nuke waste is the only significant problem with nuke power under current designs. However it is relatively high cost. Very much agree with your point about upgrading the grid, has to be high on the priority list. Also, conservation is usually the cheapest source of power, what about retrofitting all public buildings to be more energy efficent. I would also like to see lots more wind facilities built, with national overides on local zoning to prevent the Kennedy's from vetoing projects off Nantucket etc.
That Pet Food Inflation story is a bit old now, don't you think? May 2008?
"Wow, that was fast! You must have placed her on restriction and forced her to practice those chops!"
If anything I try to get her to practice less. It's as if she's trying to support the economy singlehandedly with her playing. It started before she began to sense anything was wrong though so that's probably not accurate. She got herself a chord book and taught herself to play without a guitar. We didn't know what the heck she was doing for a few months and then she came to us and asked sheepishly for a guitar. We gave it to her and she could play the damn thing without having ever touched one before.
Is anyone looking at Toll ? It seem as the insider can not sell enough shares . Reminds me of the Orange man from Countryfried.http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=TOL
Next thing yah know, drug companies will be putting shit in babyfood to boost profits; the dogs and cats always pave the way for these experiments:
More Melamine Found in U.S. Infant Formula
More Melamine Found in U.S. Infant Formula - thedailygreen.com
No wonder prices are going up!
"mp, you always brighten my day! Is it still 4 seconds to midnight?"
Kristina, your watch is fast.
CONJURE'S GLOBAL DEPRESSION CLOCK
The time is now:
11:59:54
Kristina, please set your watch accordingly. There's no particular need to be in a hurry for this rendezvous with destiny.
Pet Food Inflation story is a bit old now, don't you think?
NO, I don't, did you see a sale on food lately, if so where?
Thanks mp, I'm always early. Perhaps I should curb that tendency in this instance...
Wait until the equity losses get reflected in the insurance premiums. You'll pay 20% more for your house that decreased 20% in value.
Basel Too
http://etf.wi.gov/news/market_volatility_letter.pdf
Third para is classic....
Re petfood, it is still very high here. I'm paying 22 dollars for the large bag of Purina One now. The beginning of the year it was about 18 per bag. Some things have dropped like milk and meat but others stay very high.
mp writes:
From the last thread, let's say that Roubini's forecast is correct. If the economy drops during all of 2009, then say goodbye to the consensus forecast. The bottom would drop out of equities and we'd be on our way to SP 650.
If the bottom did fall out of equities, and you combine that loss in wealth with the 44% drop in residential prices Nouriel is talking about, you end up with a household sector that is nothing but smoking wreckage, wiped out.
mp | 01.08.09 - 9:45 pm | #
mp
That sounds about right, give or take a few points on the S&P.
Then say goodbye to the consensus forecast I said goodbye to that a long time ago.
lucifer,
You been to Asia lately? I've got a lot of pictures from my last trip to Beijing, all with that nice dreamy, romantic early morning fog look. Except it's not fog, it's pollution where you can't see buildings more than 3-4 blocks away.
There's a reason why they get reactors built in 1.5 years. And it's the same reason why they've got the horrid pollution in the 1st place.
I have a feeling that we'll all be looking back 10 years from now and seeing the downside to China building reactors in only 1.5 years without all that red tape. Say, nuclear leaks, earthquake because the reactor was built in a quake prone zone due to a lack of planning beforehand.
Granted there are a lot of downsides to the manner in which we build them here, but I wouldn't look to Asia as a blue-print for the model either.
ahh, Dilbert
Scott Adams Blog: Sign of the End Time 01/06/2009
.
LAM:
I think we're on the same wavelength tonight. Do you see the irony here:
The page cannot be found
UB,
Re: "e could play the damn thing without having ever touched one before."
Very weird indeed, perhaps you should take away the guitar and give her a book on genetics or have her watch stuff like this and lock her up for a few weeks; give her food and talk to her, but don't let her go anywhere until she performs some task, like:
Craig Venter - Creating Artificial Life
YouTube - Craig Venter - Creating Artificial Life
Can anyone tell me if cat food or dog food is the
preferred choice of this Depression ? Wet or dry ?
Melamine is OK in baby formula - drink it up kids, but lets throw away EVERY stitch of used clothing for tykes under twelve because there might be a lead button on a few pieces - we can't just remove the buttons if there is a question.........
......The zoo is being run by the morons.....
LAM:
I think that it would be cruel if the bonds in the "stocks, bonds, and real estate" diversified portfolio were corporates and munis, and not long bonds.
mp: Goodness me, the clock has struck!
Alackday and f**k my luck!
Kurt Vonnegut
We go up tomorrow and through next week, regardless of jobs #s. Why not? Obamamania is runnin' wild!
Since when has news mattered to this market? It's all technicals now.
Late Feb-early March. That's the next "BOOM!", IMO.
anon: She loves biology and her favorite show is House. Conveniently, he is a doctor that plays guitar for fun.
Did anyone see The Giant Tit Pattern on the long chart?
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC#chart1:symbol=^gspc;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
mp: "That sounds about right, give or take a few points on the S&P. Then say goodbye to the consensus forecast
Topher: "I said goodbye to that a long time ago."
Since late 2007 the stock market has obviously been a lagging economic indicator, not leading. It now reflects the reality as of Spring of 2008.
mp,
Conjure needs a Wealth Destruction Clock too. Why don't you give one to him.
Michael, although I agree it's a good idea, Conjure feels that too many clocks would distract from his main message.
...and oh look, Clarett is good friends with Goldman Sachs...
"We realized early on that in order to do the kind of development that we wanted to do, we needed a capital partner who was with us in everything, Hackett says. Still, to bolster some projects, Clarett brings in an institutional capital partner such as Goldman Sachs, ING Clarion, or Vornado Realty Trust."
At first glance, the town of Edwardsville, Ala., with a population of 194 people, might raise a few eyebrows with its bid to receive $375 million from the economic stimulus package...nearly $2 million per resident
Why a Tiny Alabama Town Wants a $375 Million Chunk of the Stimulus - US News and World Report
Yes we ca
From the last thread, let's say that Roubini's forecast is correct.
Roubini expertly calls the mortgage security meltdown and that makes him an expert on employment and GDP calls? I'll put this report on the shelf next to my 36,000 Dow book.
Why a Tiny Alabama Town Wants a $375 Million Chunk of the Stimulus - US News and World Report
The Federal Reserve released the Factors Affecting Reserve Balances today
Admittedly, I feel that I'm falling off a cliff into a sea of paranoia. There are probably meds to deal with this. But remind me why I should believe anything published by the fed? As much as I try to understand concepts like quantitative easing, I struggle. I have no background in economics, accounting, or any other pertinent disciplines. My only frame of reference is software engineering, and the whole financial system looks like a brittle mess of spaghetti code that is degrading as each additional patch is added.
Each day the idea of hoarding precious metals and stockpiling ammo seems more reasonable. Is that what they call capitulation? Time for a rally?
From the official US gov stats: total US generation for 2006: 4,000,000 thousand megawatt hours. This includes coal, petro, natgas, nuke, hydro and the insignificant contribution from "renewables".
To get a sense of instantaneous generation capability, divide by number of hours in a year. This gives
4,000,000/(365*24) GW -> 450 GW
Depending on how exactly one chooses to do the counting, the proposal further up the thread would add 20-30% to the generation capability. Pretty aggressive, but not complete lunacy. In fact, if anyone is actually serious about moving to all-electric vehicles, much more than that will have to be built.
I think the confusion comes from the gov't stat. It is occasionally reported as 4,000,000 megawatthours but it is in fact "thousand megawatthours", or "gigawatthours".
Hope that helps.
Posted this a few days ago but since the topic of the consuensus estimate has come up again:
New Fears for the New Year
analysts are falling all overthem selves to cut estimates. The early returns from Nov fiscal end firms awful. Never pay attention to the level of consensus earnings data, always look at the trends. Skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it is now. Shit, the consensus estimate is still for GROWTH in total net income in 2009 over 2008, mostly due to financials taking less of a hit in 09 vs. 08. Like that is really going to happen. But the cuts are every where. for 09 in Tech, seven ests increased, vs. 300+ cut, materials even worse.
Nuclear waste can be reprocessed, once we repeal some laws. We can run one type of nuclear reactors on the processed waste from an other type of reactor.
There is more to nuclear reactor technology than boiling light water reactors.
One could set up a few reprocessing plants in Nevada, Texas, Arizona or New Mexico.
About china- it can build french reactors in about 5-6 years (start to finish per reactor). The French built most of their nuclear reactors in less than 7 years (start to finish per reactor). So china is not cutting many corners with nuclear reactors, their coal power plants on the other hand are .. You know.
"I'll put this report on the shelf next to my 36,000 Dow book."
OK.
Safe nuclear power, automated farming, improved genetics and medicine -- everyone will be able to blog all day long.
biology must have opened a door for that abstract guitar thinking?
UB,
Does this strike you as odd?
Goldman Sachs Downgrades Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) to Neutral
StreetInsider.com - Goldman Sachs Downgrades Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) to Neutral
Re: Still, to bolster some projects, Clarett brings in an institutional capital partner such as Goldman Sachs, ING Clarion, or Vornado Realty Trust."
Hmmm?
lucifer,
How bout we build those nuke & repro plants in Canada by the oil sands regions, where they could be used during offpeak hours?
Sick and Tired Dude,you asked about improved and unimproved land prices in Napa and Sonoma counties 5-10 acres.$150k to $10 MM,depending,and I am serious.If you are serious( or halfway serious) let me know and I'll post a throwaway email address and you can let me know your wants and needs.
That curve is pretty scary.
Lucifer(Unrated) writes:
Nuclear waste can be reprocessed, once we repeal some laws. We can run one type of nuclear reactors on the processed waste from an other type of reactor.
Oh Lucifer you do go on.
CBR, it's reminscent of a crack head trying to pick up lost rocks in a shag carpet, no?
OT: Consider that in 2003 a massive, widespread, power outage threw 50 million people in the Northeastern states and Ontario, Canada out of power - disrupting lives and the economy. Why did this happen? Because of a failure to "trim trees" in Eastlake, Ohio - now that's a dumb grid. And remember that only a few years earlier, the most innovative, high-tech industries in the world were shut down by blackouts caused by our primitive electricity grid. Overall, blackouts cost the U.S. on the order of $100 billion a year.
The smart gird is a not one idea but many technologies such as real-time pricing (smart meters), superconductive smart cable, and plug-n-play architecture that combine to produce a grid that is decentralized, self-healing, robust, and smart for both producers and consumers..
Marginal Revolution: Infrastructure: Roads and The Smart Grid
anon: nothing and everything strikes me as odd these days. Driver, stop, I want to get off.
Re: "She got herself a chord book and taught herself to play without a guitar. We didn't know what the heck she was doing for a few months and then she came to us and asked sheepishly for a guitar."
anon: I want to stop looking. Check out who runs the now merged ClarionING:
http://www.ingclarion.com/images/SteveFurnary_tcm133-99288.pdf
Former chairman of the Pension Real Estate Association.
Comrade alexei,
Using nuclear reactors for oil sands operations has been suggested for over 30 years, but internal politics and indecisiveness has stopped them.
Comrade BR,
Many countries are doing it..
Comrade christina,
I thought that average female banter and petty rivalries had more in common with the behavior of a methamphetamine addict (trying to achieve nearly worthless goals).
Great Seattle cartoon on porn:
Seattle Post-Intelligencer: David Horsey
If the jobs number is less than 700, the market will rally. If it's less than 550, the Dow will be up 300.
earthquake in huntington beach
I thought that average female banter and petty rivalries had more in common with the behavior of a methamphetamine addict (trying to achieve nearly worthless goals).
Lucifer | 01.08.09 - 10:53 pm
I wouldn't know, I partake in neither...
Bloody earthquakes.
Now I gotta go see where the epicenter was.
'Twas tiny but a tad bumpy.
Nostrovia,
UB,
That's change in your homepage makes me curious??
Headline number on the jobs report my be way under as part time numbers soar. U9 should explode until ch7 starts.
For the record, PCA called the earthquake on the last thread.
There's an older business model that still provides solid support and guidance for it's customers.
And they too are getting hammered.
Mutual Insurers.
So in the course of providing assistance to truly venerable institutions, I'd like to see a Fed program window called the Mutual Insurer Liquidity Fund.
They've been around for a while, but that doesn't mean that they can't still attract business with a little help.
There it is:
" * Thursday, January 08, 2009 at 07:49:46 PM at epicenter
Location\t34.113°N, 117.294°W
Depth\t13.8 km (8.6 miles)
Region\tGREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIFORNIA
Distances\t
* 2 km (1 miles) S (183°) from San Bernardino, CA
* 6 km (4 miles) NNE (25°) from Colton, CA
* 8 km (5 miles) E (89°) from Rialto, CA
* 88 km (55 miles) E (86°) from Los Angeles Civic Center, CA"
Nostrovia,
Map Centered at 32°N, 115°W
homedad43,
"Mutual Insurer Liquidity Fund"
That would ensure liquidity and be stimulative.
Nostrovia,
Wow,
Magnitude
5.0
Why not create a bailout fund for the perpetual machine industry? They have been rather underserved in the last 100 years. I mean, we are bailing frauds anyway.
Earthquake huh? Wonder how those subdivisions in the IE are doing.
It gets worse. Ok now I'm really going to stop looking:
Chief Investment Officer comes from the Pentagon, Bain & Company.
http://www.ingclarion.com/images/Ferguson%20-%20Senior%20Investment%20Team_tcm133-98923.pdf
The CO-CEO Daniel S. Heflin has a very sparse resume:
What was he doing between Texas Christian University and the London School of Economics? Btw LSE and ING Clarion?
Who wants to bet these guys have been to the Dutch Antilles?
anon: Don't worry; it's meant to confuse you
sdtfs,
"Earthquake huh? Wonder how those subdivisions in the IE are doing."
Particle board is pretty flexible IIRC.
Nostrovia,
Under the Carousel Mall? 34.113 -117.2943(M5.0 - GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIFORNIA - 2009 January 09 03:49:46 UTC) - Google Maps
I don't see anything in the news about an earthquake.
Where is the bank Holiday?
mmckinl
No kidding.
Imagine the economic damage governments across the world could prevent if they just shut down the central banks for even a couple of days.
Recent Earthquakes in California and Nevada - Index Map
re: earthquake
my IE shack still standing. one quick hop. nbd
ac,
"Imagine the economic damage governments across the world could prevent if they just shut down the central banks for even a couple of days."
Yeah, but what would we do for a punch line?
Nostrovia,
Earthquake only slightly felt in Redondo Beach
Comrade Kris: the earthquake happened. Popeye had shorted it, though.
Re: "it's meant to confuse you :)"
I was so comfortable with the old one and I really don't deal well with change, so that will take some adjusting. It seems good to be on here, as it's been a bit.
I suppose I should put something on here, on topic?
The dark side of the U.S. financial bailout: AIG
RGE - The dark side of the U.S. financial bailout: AIG
A significant amount of balance sheet space is now dedicated to the direct lending to and purchase of securities from American International Group (AIG) and its subsidiaries.
Frankly, I'm an asset man myself.
"I thought"
Lucifer
No, you don't. But you do blather on.
"I don't see anything in the news about an earthquake."
5.0s aren't terribly newsworthy in the 1st world unless they happen on a thrust fault like Northridge. I felt a little rollin' here in a 4th floor condo in Mission Valley (San Diego about 90 mils south of the epicenter). My Aunt & Uncle in Redlands (pretty much right at ground zero) said they had a nice thump and a jolt. Surf was up in their pool, but no damage. Pictures din't even fall off the walls.
fried(Unrated) writes:
No, you don't. But you do blather on.
He's great fun to troll.
Fried,
I do not care about the opinions of others. I listen to them, but that is it..
In case you did not catch on that yet.
ac,
"Imagine the economic damage governments across the world could prevent if they just shut down the central banks for even a couple of days."
Yeah, but what would we do for a punch line?
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope
"YARRR... it's drivin' me nuts!
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
U.S. Budget and Economy: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
Also See: Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility
FACTBOX-The Fed's evolving liquidity toolkit
FACTBOX-The Fed's evolving liquidity toolkit
| Markets
| US Markets
| Reuters
The U.S. Federal Reserve said on
Wednesday it was expanding and tweaking the parameters of its
money market credit facility to include a wider array of
investors and keep the program viable even with money market
yields at rock-bottom levels.
The Money Market Investor Funding Facility was authorized
in October as a way to keep credit flowing to mutual funds.
The program will now be open to other money market
investors, including certain U.S.-based investment funds,
government investment pools and common trust funds.
The Fed continues to create and fine-tune a number of
programs to support credit availability at a time financial
market functioning remains impaired.
This seems to fit:
YouTube - The Simpsons - Homer Evolution
Lucifer - and yet you expect us to care about your opinions. Go figure.
Now we come to the part of the bailout where we have to start deciding what to bailout next, and what can safely be allowed to go splat.
The fun part is that you don't get to know which are the winners and losers, because the folks in charge haven't decided yet.
Now, in a private email yesterday I posited the State of Arizona will need a bailout within two and a half months.
There is no practical way to cut the budget within the short period to insolvency, and technically the state can not borrow without statutory changes. The republicans are in charge of the legislature and will have to eat major crow just to pass legislation enabling emergency borrowing.
Right now the politicians are so far from reality, they still think they can stimulate with a minor tax cut and avoid this disaster. Ideology has triumphed over reality.
Now things get interesting, but the common person has not yet panicked.
Someday this war's gonna end...
bummed I sold my KOL. should have been greedier. the fact that coal investment hasn't come up once in this thread is a nice sign that it still has some room to run.
also wish I'd picked up some DJP today, the aggies are spunky overnight.
I wouldn't want to be short in anything tomorrow.
mmckinl:
"Whitney: TARP funds go down the downgrade drain
Call Roto Rooter, that's the name, and away go troubles down the drain.
So are we just more aware of the seismic activity because we're sitting around blogging all the time, or are these precursors to the next large quake,..or even the "Big One"? Anyone heard a prediction yet?
BTW, nice welcome for the FDIC crew, eh!
001,
Lucifer's just upset that a group of monkeys in NY, DC, and the FRB created hell on earth before he could.
Eh...stuff happens. I say roll with it...
Hang on, there's a rat on the lawn...gotta get me some breakfast munchies...
Nostrovia,
Uncle Billy, I'm confused. Does this mean that the TARP recipients, instead of lending out the money, are creating their own development projects and business entities to pay TARP to themselves? That's sure what it sounds like.
Wall Street CEO To-Do List:
1. Apply for TARP
2. Take cut off top for salaries and bonuses
3. Take another cut to pay dividends to self and other shareholders
4. Use more TARP to buy back shares, raising shares, then sell my own holdings
5. Invest windfall in new development company to be funded by TARP
6. Take cut of TARP as salary and bonuses as CEO of development company
7. Take another cut as shareholder of development company
8. Run all of my living expenses through the TARP-funded entity
9. Break ground on phony-baloney development funded by TARP
10. Continue to siphon TARP in all of the above ways until development project goes bust.
11. Apply for more TARP...
aaaggggghhhhhhh!!!!! (exclamation points for Tanta)
AllenM:
Saw the November revenues for AZ the other day. Something like -15% FYTD from forecast; November was like -20% from forecast.
That kind of damage is structural; no "stimulating" from that.
House shook, TV moved, thought it was the jobs report. Just a fiver 50 miles from Desert Cities.
actually, i would want to be and will be short in treasuries - can't sell that TBT, or i'd be out of the knucklehead groupthink club here
Someone mention<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBuMFDHkrH8'> Coal ?
Feck: I don't know. I don't even want to think about this anymore. I'm having of gigantic woodticks that are feasting on us, and will completely drain us dry and then just fall off and go live behind thick walls.
sdtfs,
Pre-shocks are extremely rare in non-volcanic regions.
Nostrovia,
"I'm having visions of gigantic..."
"Someone mention"
i've a strong advocate of a focus on the low-octane variety. no pretty trees, hills or streams out there, nor any people. the canadians have more thermal stuff in any case.
Nike releases new Air Jordans for SRP of $190
That tent pole is going to need a whole lot of lifting given how the Olympics went for Nike
ac
i got season 3 for christmas- all time!
anyone else hear about a shotgun shortage? people keep asking me (at work) where to find one. like im a gun nut or something. sheesh
UB,
This is the straw they are grasping at I guess?
Prudential Investment Management
Sectors that might perform relatively better include
apartments and niche property types such as health care and self-storage.
http://www.investmentmanagement.prudential.com/media/managed/documents/pim/Pru_USQ_Oct_08.pdf
"I'm having visions of gigantic..."
That helped!
001,
I do not expect you or anyone else to care. I do stuff because I choose to.
Anon: I think that's how they're justifying what they're doing. Feck looks like he has his finger on a truer truth though.
the market is not going up without oil pushing it...I'll go short.....
chevron warning took care of any happiness of low number....
too many bulls saying it's all baked in..
Basel Two, I sent CR the JLBC report for the november tax collections.
The State will be insolvent within weeks, and unable to pay the bill by late March.
A three billion dollar federal bailout combined with a modest tax increase will allow survival for the next twelve months.
The reality is so far off the political radar, that they look at me like I am from the moon.
Consequently, I no longer speak much with politicians. They don't like an unvarnished nonideological message.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Re: Feck looks like he has his finger on a truer truth though
Yah, that sounds spot on and worth some digging; thank God we still have half a rating agency, but maybe now we have a new partner?
The 3 Dirtkateers!
Lucifer
What kind of work do you do? Disability fraud or 10 year old? lol
Typed from my iPhone.
Putin's play smacks of desperation...
He's alienating his customer base...
Since the bulk of his customers are dual fuel systems...
Many a European consumer is going to turn to heating oil or the electric grid.
Maybe this is a Madoff spinco?
Blvd6200 has unprecedented community support from the following organizations:
Hollywood Chamber of Commerce, etc....
Blvd6200 - Public Support
Someday this war's gonna end...
Citizen AllenM
No it's not...
With 11 days left for Bush the Minor's term, will the big one hit San Fran and fulfill all 3 dire warnings predicted by some gov't dept. pre-GWB WH: a major terrorist attack in NYC, a major hurricane hitting NO, and a major earthquake collapsing SF. Will it be major major major? Any intrade?
Anon,
Let's just say I have some job in research and I have two postgraduate degrees.
Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire
1/8/09:
Cheney says no one saw financial crisis coming
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
12/15/08:
Rush Limbaugh: "But I have to say when it comes, for example, to the housing crisis, the sub-prime mortgage business blowing up, Mr. Vice President, this is largely a Democrat Party scandal. Your administration tried numbers of different times early on in the early part of this decade to get new regulators in there, because the warning signs were all over the place."
Dick Cheney: "No, I agree, Rush. I think the -- we did see fairly early on that there was a potential crisis in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. I can remember Alan Greenspan, when he was chairman of the Federal Reserve, voicing concerns to us that this is a potential major problem if there was systemic failure here. So we put together a reform package, but Congress simply wouldn't touch it."
404 Page Not Found | The White House
Kona: They sound evil enough even without Madoff & Co.
I was going after the Dutch connection. It was sparked by the fact that Clarett partnered with Nederlander (just a linguistic launching pad... no aspersions intended) at one point and that ING is a Dutch company. And the fact that it looks like pots of money are being exported, hidden, and cleaned in the Antilles. And always, in the back of my head I've been trying to figure out why Roland Arnall (Ameriquest, Bush Buddy) was sent to the Netherlands of all places. Cushy, yes, but why there in particular? Lots of frayed odds and ends.
Feck looks like he has his finger on a truer truth
Ahem. HER finger. And I prefer truthiness. Her finger on a truer truthiness.
; )
Lucifer
Who would bother with 2 post grad degrees that involve no science or math?
Sounds like you're trying very hard not to say "call center"
Downward adjustment reflects some markdowns.
The Los Angeles City Council has unanimously approved a $400-million mixed-use green development totaling 1.1 million sf called Blvd6200 that will feature more than 1,000 apartments
The seven-acre development site for Blvd6200 is owned by the Nederlander Organization, which also owns the Pantages Theatre and recently completed a restoration of the cultural and historical landmark. The land assemblage was completed without eminent domain or displacement of any residential tenants.
The Nederlander Organization, the largest controller of Broadway productions in New York City, originated with the purchase of the Detroit Opera House in 1922 by the Nederlander Family and continues to operate to this day.
Robert E. Nederlander, age 63, a director since May 1989.
Mr. Nederlander was elected by the Board of Directors on November 16,
1993 to serve as a Vice Chairman of the Board, having previously
served as Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer of the
Company since May 1989. He resigned as Vice Chairman on October 18,
1996. He is also President and director of Nederlander Organization,
Inc., New York, an owner and operator of one of the world's largest
chains of theaters, since November 1981; President of Nederlander
Television and Film Productions, Inc. since October 1985; Partner in
New York Yankees Baseball Club since 1973 and Managing General
Partner from September 13, 1990 through December 31, 1991; director
and Chairman of the Board of Riddell Sports, Inc. since April 1988;
Chairman of the Board of MEGO Financial Corporation since January
1988; and a director of MEGO Mortgage Corp., News Communications,
Inc. and HFS Incorporated since 1995.
Feck: First time I've ever made that booboo (that I remember). I guess it was the fedora.
Citizen Allen M is correct. Some day this war will end when a new one begins
Typed from my iPhone.
Anon,
The degrees are in a 'hard' science, and my occupation is related to that.. Now go and fellate your ivy leauge buddies.
Opps, this is more up to date:
See Robert E. Nederlander
Mr. Nederlander was a director of Cendant from December 1997 until the completion of Cendants separation plan in August 2006
REALOGY CORP - Annual Report (10-K) ITEM 10. DIRECTORS, EXECUTIVE OFFICERS AND CORPORATE GOVERNANCE
Dark humor for the evening-
Mr Bini Smaghi noted with annoyance that Anglo-Saxon commentators now use the term "PIGS" to describe the eurozone's Club Med bloc of Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain, which all have large current deficits or public debts.
That's okay, Uncle B. We all know you're a mental widget. ; )
Adds gender balance to our new firm - UB, Feck & Kona, LTD.
Kona - you got those forms filled out yet? You know, the ones for us to become a bank holding company?
...on the FED balance sheet.
Sorry, brain trying to incorporate too many comment topics and still remember point I wanted to make about the thread topic.
counter- good luck. Hope you you stop in from t2t.
Eric-
plonk-meter registering Barack Hussein Overdrive?
Crap. I can't remember the other stuff I thought were witty rejoinders.
This is too much, so take a shot Ms Feck:
List of Private Companies Worldwide - BusinessWeek
Construction industry braces for layoffs - Dallas Business Journal:
Construction industry braces for layoffs
...the politicians are so far from reality, they still think they can stimulate with a minor tax cut and avoid this disaster...Now things get interesting, but the common person has not yet panicked.
Citizen AllenM 11:25 pm
i agree
the kind of money (debt) needed to stem the tide on this crash boggles the mind...one or two trillion aint gonna do it
over at big picture, recently barry rithhotz calculated that us households had lost in excess of 7 trillion dollars worth of wealth via losses on investment/savings and home valuations
we are hemmoraging out and congress and "prez to be" are talking about a quart of plasma
looking very grim
psc,
I hope not because I'm in a 3rd floor flat overlooking the city with a mountain and homes above me....
Still I'll take a earthquake anyday over tornado... I don't get out of bed unless it's over 6.0
Construction has been the younger generation's factory work, which itself replaced farm work
What next
Lucifer(Unrated) writes:
Let's just say I have some job in research and I have two postgraduate degrees.
And he can have four orgasms in an hour! He knows because he pays for sex!
He's got a prostate gland like an avocado, folks, what can I say.
Cool, Kona! We's in the big leagues now. Oooh. The air's thinner up here.
Ok, what about this:
April 12, 2002
Mego Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: MEGO) today announced plans to launch a new corporate identity, including changing its name to Leisure Industries Corporation.
LOL BR
But did he stay at a Holiday Inn last night?
Typed from my iPhone.
Bruce Springsteen "The River"
Construction has been the younger generation's factory work, which itself replaced farm work
What next
Anonymous
Meth
Consequently, I no longer speak much with politicians. They don't like an unvarnished nonideological message.
Citizen AllenM | 01.08.09 - 11:43 pm | #
Thanks for your excellent and very informative posts. I appreciate them greatly, alw
2002? I don't get the connection, K.
[Let's just say I have some job in research and I have two postgraduate degrees.
Lucifer ]
No one gives a phuck.
Sorry, I think I smoked too much crack there ... the air is thin in here and no place to hide ... oh my God, now what?
FFDIC
Always good reference articles. I think this was predictable based on the Architectural Billing posted by CR. But I have recently moved to Dallas and wonder if you have any personal thoughts on the local market
I'm out of practice and need a cookie; Ill try again and this time, focus.
Two friends/families, $200K/yr indian casino food service execs, one refi'd to the top and the other bought the RRE top, both underwater 200K with helocs above that, have quit the dead casino biz and are thinking BK.
I'll be astounded at any stimulus plan that can restore lost earnings such as these, and their tax payments, and sad to see personal finances imploding while a case is building for lower corporate wage, material and borrowing costs, and higher equity prices.
Kona: You hit something interesting there. One of the directors at that company is Cheryl Mills: "Ms. Mills was Deputy Counsel to the former President of the United States, William J. Clinton. From 1993 to 1996, Ms. Mills also served as Associate Counsel to the President."
There might be a Madoff connection in there too with the Smiths.
UB, Feck & Kona, Ltd... not too shabby.
Short beauty products
Long alcohol
It's the new dollar-oil
Love this Prechter quote from the last thread: "I can't think of a single aspect of the situation that is less bearish than in 1929."
I've been saying the same thing for a few years now, and it seems like everyone here is starting to come around to the same conclusion. I don't know whether to laugh or cry, because this is one time I would've loved to been wrong.
Short free market
Long socialism
peAkcredit(Very Good) writes:
\t...indian casino food service execs,
peAkcredit | 01.09.09 - 12:18 am | #
what exactly is a "indian casino food service exec"?
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) writes:
Love this Prechter quote from the last thread: "I can't think of a single aspect of the situation that is less bearish than in 1929."
CNBC? Kramer?
take a name ass wipe | 01.09.09 - 12:14 am | #
Still one of my favorite CR handles. I wish all anons would take the hint as creatively.
Still one of my favorite CR handles. I wish all anons would take the hint as creatively.
sdtfs
Thank you
"what exactly is a "indian casino food service exec"?"
A manager at Satyam Co. while on lunch?
Okay, podnahs. Carry on with your due diligence and let me know when it's time to call in the SWAT team. We'll serve high-risk warrants on them robber barons. Might have to lob a few concussion grenades into that den of thieves.
Comrade Bear today there is greater market connectivity. That is a good thing. You can also use massive debt as an asset by threatening to default or block imports
HOT POTATO
Slightly OT, but I have a question for the crowd.
Could Obama be barking up the wrong tree with the plans for massive infrastructure investments?
What makes me thing he might be is that the construction industry isn't necessarily the kind of jobs creation that will pay good long term dividends for the economy as a whole. In the 30's those types of jobs were going to be needed in the ensuing decades, and the structures built could even be considered new technology for the day. (Highways and bridges for transport using newfangled cars, dams to provide electricity for newfangled appliances, etc.)
Not only that, the labor, safety, environmental, and liability costs are much higher than they used to be.
These things would be considered today to be "old" technology, and the potential ROI much more limited. So you end up creating a bunch of jobs which go nowhere after you are done with your "infrastructure stimulus".
Wouldn't investments in newer industries be more rewarding? Perhaps invest in healthcare, curing AIDS, curing cancer, preventing autism, and the like, or new sources of energy, or heck even invest in improving the capabilities of Linux. Perhaps investing in semiconductors or software, education techniques, asteroid detection (especially potentially earth-bound) or something like that.
But, infrastructure? Basically just roads n' stuff?
What I'm trying to say is we could benefit much more in the long term by investing in jobs that might actually be needed in the future and which provide a more far-reaching benefit.
lucifer, I enjoy your economics and finance comments. I even enjoy some of your other comments, but I recognize that they can be provocative and could be offensive to some women bloggers here. The women on this board haven't done anything bad to you, and are good contributors. Do yourself a favor and give 'em a break. When you feel like taking a jab at your ex, write to her instead of posting here. No need to reply. Back to the on-topic stuff.....
Best wishes
Feck: you work in law enforcement? Or above law enforcement?
Around law enforcement?
What the hell? From the developing scandal involving "pay to play" no-bid muni auctions.
Christopher Cox, the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, has said oversight of the municipal bond markets is inadequate, and has urged Congress to take steps to protect both investors and taxpayers. Congress has not taken up the initiative.
Nationwide Inquiry on Bids for Municipal Bonds - NY Times
Feckless Ness=Yves Smith
You've been had!
Denninger making claims that FHLB possibly Hotlanta on the skids. Have not heard much info about it. Anybody up on this yet? This is newz if true.
Hence my frequent posts about law enforcement and local government, Uncle B. You must have missed my dazzling insights on those topics.
sd: serious? Can't be... she lied to me, possibly, then. I asked her if she knew me off-blog.
I'm hitting walls here, but two things:
Developed by The Clarett Group, a New York-based firm, the $400 million mixed-use project will be environmentally sustainable (LEED qualified), and will serve as a model for an interactive lifestyle.
The seven acre development site for Blvd6200 is owned by The Nederlander Organization, headed by James Nederlander, Sr. The land assemblage was completed without eminent domain or displacement of any residential tenants. Nederlander also owns the Pantages Theatre and recently completed a full-restoration of the cultural and historical landmark that is Los Angeles version of Broadway.
Ahawhahaha:
he project is being built on property leased for 99 years from the Nederlander Organization, Inc., which owns several venues for live performances, including the Pantages. The theater opened as an Art Deco outpost in Hollywood in 1930. It served as a combined live theater and movie palace and from 1949-59 was the site of the Academy Awards. It received a $10 million restoration in 2000.
Named as one of New York Citys top 15 real estate development companies, The Clarett Group is recognized for its high-quality residential and mixed-use developments in metropolitan New York and Washington D.C.
The company expects to break ground on BLVD6200 in early 2008.
Page Not Found - Jeffer, Mangels, Butler & Marmaro, LLP
Ok, where is Feck, I need her in my office!
Tom Waits "Down in the Hole"
sdtfs - wrong coast, and I'm a public employee, not a public figure.
I guess in a sense she doesn't, eh Feck?
sd: serious
Uncle Billy, Mental Widget | Homepage | 01.09.09 - 12:34 am | #
Nah, just yanking ur chain.
LaywerL vs. laywerliz Ultimate Fighting, tonight on Pay Per View
Kona, Feck, let's review this Friday afternoon. Scotch in the conference room at 4:00.
Denninger making claims that FHLB possibly Hotlanta on the skids.
John Jansen at ATC mentioned today that there had been a rumor floating.
It was my impression that because FHLB loans are fully secured (FWIW), that they are first on the resolution totem pole, even before the FDIC takes its cut.
But if Congress does allow lien-stripping, then the FHLBs are toast, and plans need to be made for their eventual dissolution.
Tom Waits
"Down in the Hole"
001 | 01.09.09 - 12:36 am | #
Child in Time...
Weather Helm
you are right imho
and i think obama knows that roads bridges etc aint gonna eveen half way do it
he has spoken on more than one occasion about a 21st century apollo energy project with all the research and ramping up to production included
if 21st century transportation is added, like electric vehicles, high-speed light rail in metro areas etc
could add up to 1/5th total economy
Denninger making claims that FHLB possibly Hotlanta on the skids.
FFDIC | 01.09.09 - 12:32 am | #
You think that has anything to do wih the 51 billion they gave to Countrywide?
Ok, off to find out what this NYC2012 business is all about. Night night.
sdtfs
Citi still has that $135 billion from the Lehman collapse too
and i think obama knows that roads bridges etc aint gonna eveen half way do it
mock turtle | 01.09.09 - 12:40 am | #
You'd think with all the bridge loans out there, we'd be up to our necks in bridges. I guess they just don't stand up to pier review.
This is the law firm involved;
The Enhanced Note Sale is the sale of a secured Promissory Note (secured by a troubled hotel) which is "enhanced" by a cooperative Borrower giving a deed-in-lieu of foreclosure to the Lender or a Buyer of the Note. The Note and security are left in place through a two-tiered subsidiary structure used by the Lender or Buyer, with title insurance endorsements to prevent merger of title when the affiliated parties acquire both the Note and related Mortgage or Trust Deed (by purchase from the Lender) and title to the property itself (by deed-in-lieu from the Borrower).
Hotel bankruptcy? Distressed hotel loan mortgage? Restructuring hotel debt? Troubled hotel asset? How about an Enhanced Note Sale™?
-
Hotel Law Blog
And that is that, goodnight for me as well and if this mattered to anyone, please send checks to CR or donate online and try to not just piss and moan about this, just give him your cash and get on with your lives!
Always good reference articles. I think this was predictable based on the Architectural Billing posted by CR. But I have recently moved to Dallas and wonder if you have any personal thoughts on the local market
LawyerL | 01.09.09 - 12:17 am | #
I have a million thoughts on the local market. What do you want to know? Have you bought? Are you looking? I have a room for rent w/private bath $450.
Perhaps invest in healthcare, curing AIDS, curing cancer, preventing autism, and the like, or new sources of energy, or heck even invest in improving the capabilities of Linux.
Warning: Patent wonkish policy piece I'm working on.
Weather Helm:
IMO, one of the potential drawbacks in investing in IP intensive industries is that there's often no way to "capture" the investment from a GDP perspective because of IP havens. Ultimately, the "investment" often becomes a net drain on GDP.
For example, let's say that BigPharma develops a cure for cancer. BigPharma then stashes the patent in Ireland, where there is a 0% tax rate on patent royalties. The Irish subsidiary then licenses the patent to the American subsidiary at an inflated price. So now, the drug gets priced at a minimal US profit with most of the profits paid in royalties to the Irish subsidiary. But of course, the earnings get reflected in the consolidated balance sheet even though the dollars never touch American hands.
Look at where Ireland is on this chart of national exporters. A country of 4M people with 10% of the US exports! Twice as much as Kuwait.
Exports (most recent) by country
If roads and bridges aren't gonna do it, may I suggest fiber optics to every neighbourhood? High speed Internet, TV, audio/video communication and pr0n for everyone. With the bailout for porn industry, we've got everything covered.
Since late 2007 the stock market has obviously been a lagging economic indicator, not leading. It now reflects the reality as of Spring of 2008.
MrM
So in the same way that we are now destroying "wealth" instead of creating it (negative vs. positive feedback) maybe the whole market psychology ("collective hunch") has had a phase reversal as well and we are now hunching in the rearview mirror of denial.
We are through the looking glass, that's for sure.
from the seattle times article CR referenced
"On top of that, some of downtown Seattle's biggest companies are contracting or worse. JPMorgan Chase, which took over failed Washington Mutual last fall, already has said it will give back all of WaMu's leased space downtown
That may not be all: Matt Christian, a senior director at Cushman & Wakefield, said he anticipates the new owner also will put up for lease 500,000 to 800,000 square feet at WaMu Center, the failed bank's 940,000-square-foot headquarters."
BigPharma then stashes the patent in Ireland, where there is a 0% tax rate on patent royalties.
Invade Ireland! Invade the Caymans! | Mother Jones
Basel, 2 thanks-- for that illuminating example on pharma patents, and for the reference to the nationmaster site... very useful.
You gotta intuit that with the inevitable winner picking that's about to erupt there's going to be scads of unintended consequences.
Yep. While everyone can visualize oil and cheap Chinese crap as part of the trade deficit, it's hard to imagine a product manufactured in the US by an "American" company being an import.
"what exactly is a "indian casino food service exec"?"
Buffalo Hunter!
Basel II: The oil companies have been running a similar complicated scam involving Liberian-flagged vessels, subsidiaries, refining, etc., for years now. Evading U.S. taxes. Individuals doing the same are being flushed out in Germany, the Benelux & Scandinavian countries, and the U.S., but none have gone after the transnats. They're bleeding tax money and ought to shut the havens down.
G'nite all. Long day tomorrow.