It's now minus 11 C (minus 20 factoring the wind). There are too many homeless people in the city. Bailouts should first help those in the greatest need for shelter, food and security.
Something is horribly wrong with humanity when there is 100 million sq ft of space and homelesss people are dying of exposure or lighting themselves on fire in ATM atriums.
There's been enough food & shelter in the world for everyone going back decades. The limiting factor has always been politics, and one way or another people always get the political systems they want.
404 Error, No such article | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle
Consumer borrowing fell $7.9 billion in November
The Federal Reserve reported today that borrowing on credit cards, and for such things as auto loans, dropped at an annual rate of $7.94 billion in November, the biggest decline in 65 years of record keeping.
and one way or another people always get the political systems they want. Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) | 01.09.09 - 12:56 am | #
Voices at the margins are the easiest and first to be ignored...
I never wanted a system that marginalizes people who were born into less opportunity, have mental or health other issues. But it's what we all got.
Looking at the amounts being spent by our representatives to support a fraudulent system and seeing that only a tiny fraction would provide for those in greatest of need is what really makes me a nihilist for this society.
I have a million thoughts on the local market. What do you want to know? Have you bought? Are you looking? I have a room for rent w/private bath $450. FFDIC | 01.09.09 - 12:50 am | # That come with broadband internet access? Now you've got to compete with the office spaces!
PCA - I dropped $20 into the blanket of a man sleeping on a building's heat exhaust tongiht. It is easily the coldest night of this winter. The man didn't wake up.
I have on many occasions taken a person from the street into a near by pizza place or McD to feed them and listen to their stories. Then go home and cry my eyes out.
My wife doesn't understand.... but there is a survior's guilt to success.
Good riddance for most CRE developers. We don't need an economy based on stupid land use planning decisions. And no surprise that economists have 'missed the gravity of the turn' again. They're just looking at old curves, and drawing new ones by doing a little regression analysis to get the next data point.
This is Mr. Market in action. We DO need to rebuild rail, shipping channels, maybe some bridges and roads. NOT more office parks built out in the edge of an exurb.
What about converting CRE into free housing for the homeless? If you give them shelter, food and basic medical care it would be cheaper than keeping them on the street.
I never wanted a system Interesting Times | 01.09.09 - 1:01 am | #
None of us would choose that directly, but indirectly we all have. The world around us reflects both the best and worst we humans have to offer. Don't know how humanity in general could ever be considered humane.
TWO ALLIANCE CENTER
Buckhead office tower nears completion
By KEVIN DUFFY
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Friday, January 02, 2009
The topping-out ceremony for Two Alliance Center, one of several office buildings under construction in Buckhead, is scheduled for Wednesday. Topping out marks the end of structural work.
Two Alliance Center is scheduled to open in the summer, two years after construction began. About 2 million square feet of office space is being built in Buckhead, and landlords are struggling to sign tenants in a depressed market.
Looking at the amounts being spent by our representatives to support a fraudulent system and seeing that only a tiny fraction would provide for those in greatest of need is what really makes me a nihilist for this society.
Ok off my soap box. nite.
Interesting Times
Yes, why do our representatives grudge pennies to the poor but jump at the chance to bailout the fraudulent firms on wall street. I think the answer is pretty simple, the government primarily caters to interests of the wealthy. But why is that ?? Why does the majority elect such representatives ???
"Why does the majority elect such representatives ?"
old people vote, rich people vote, and a disturbingly large segment of the populace is actually influenced by the media space that money buys.
and i really hate to bring it up again, but 45% of the populace believes humanity is less than 10,000 years old. do you really want them to vote in any case?
I know exactly how you feel, and I would not consider myself a success. I feel guilty just to have warm clothes and a roof over my head when so many do not.
Dollar investors typically look everywhere but the U.S. bond market for clues on the direction of the greenback but with record amounts of U.S. debt being issued to break the recession, these are not ordinary times.The U.S. government is borrowing at record levels to pay for an economic bailout and while a flight to safety prompted strong demand late last year, investors are beginning to worry that bond prices have risen so far and so fast that they could be the next asset class to suffer a downturn.Already holding billions of dollars in U.S. government debt, domestic institutional investors and foreigners including Asian central banks could incur enormous capital losses, prompting them to sell at the first hint of trouble. ...
Remember VP Biden's comments about Pres Obama being challenged right after taking power. Looks like a currency crisis will be the challenge.
Or an escalation in the Middle East.
Or Russia taking back some territory.
Or race riots starting in Oakland.
Or a collapse of state unemployment.
Or a collapse of California.
Or a tax revolt after informing us IOUs can be expected for our tax refunds.
Or a stimulus program funding shortfall.
Or any of a hundred possibilities.
and he worked hard for the privilege to serve his country. Why would anyone want the job? Altruism has to be the answer. Ego can't be that delusional.
much of central europe has old-style organized crime. one wonders exactly how much money is in the informal economy there, and if the gangsters are possibly an uncounted 'upper class', or have 20K/yr 'legit' jobs, ala tony soprano's trash company w2.
and i really hate to bring it up again, but 45% of the populace believes humanity is less than 10,000 years old. do you really want them to vote in any case?
bgates | 01.09.09 - 1:28 am
Right now isn't a bad time to find religion. The loss of community among the citizenry has been exacerbated by the inability to find common cause and like minded people.
I'd like to demand a recount on the jobless numbers. There have been numerous reports about the system crashing while people are trying to register on the unemployment line. Leave no chad hanging!
Opiate of the masses... Religion provides community and community provides protection.
The thought has been expressed that Americans will sit in their homes and use the other opiate, television and the internet, to hide from the economic crisis and its possible outcomes. Religion requires you to meet, interact, and provide support. All important considerations in dealing with a depression.
Azurite: Thanks for that story...it's a big one. Should be on the front pages but, as usual, it's not! Interesting that AIG was involved. Buncha crooks...especially Greenberg, who's another Madoff.
I ran into Mrs. Hepinstall at the Jewish Community Center today. She told me that Mr. Madoff tried to mail his foreskin to the Pope in one of those fancy gold boxes from Pier I that are 75% off this week. She bought a dozen to put matzah balls in for Passover gifts. Matzah ball - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
I have been wondering if the loss of some sort of spiritual practice isn't a contributing reason for where this country has ended up. Where are we learning right and wrong?
OT: I didn't have the chance to ask this on the earlier thread on rental rates but fewer people can afford a mortgage and credit is tight...why isn't demand for apartment rentals through the roof?
much of central europe has old-style organized crime. one wonders exactly how much money is in the informal economy there, and if the gangsters are possibly an uncounted 'upper class', or have 20K/yr 'legit' jobs, ala tony soprano's trash company w2.
bgates
Funny, I don't see Bulgaria or Hungary in that list. Next theory?
This article is very telling, at least for Texas. Austin has been held a bastion for a long time as where thing were different. Top 10 for the last 5 yrs for CRE b/c of oil, education, and we didn't partake in crazy price hikes. All the smart growth over the last five years has really given me the heebie jeebies. I hope it works out, but I'm not so sure.
Would like to hear any other texans pov on the matter...or any yankees!
My old man is freaked out. He thinks it's going to be the 80's all over again. The rest of the country will recover and texas will flounder. No one will give a damn about the oil...and we will lag behind in recover at least 5 yrs.
"He thinks it's going to be the 80's all over again."
the rest of the country is and was oblivious to how brutal the oil bust was in texas. they also think that reagan toppled the soviet union by the sheer power of his hair.
Texas is different and had some good laws to protect them from the poor lending practices.
"Unique Aspects of Texas Home Equity Loans
Because Texas laws have traditionally been designed to protect individuals and their families, home equity loans were not even possible in Texas until late 1997. Change comes slowly, however, so when Texas real estate law was finally amended to permit home equity loans, it included some of the strongest consumer protections in the nation. The law is both lengthy and complex, but some of the most significant provisions are:"
Forget about Texas and an oil bust -- what about Alaska. Resident oil checks, a fresh mountain of debt, and other spending depends on an unhedged oil price while the only other industries are coast guard and air force.
Well I don't want to increase the paranoia but a few threads back someone asked about what Paulson said to Congress. I had an idea but I self-censored myself for the first time. I have no doubt there were threats of some violence.
I question the 15.1%, judging from the graph alone:
In 2008 the net free office space (additions minus absorption) increased by about 75 million square feet. This let the vacancy rate rise from 11.1 to 12%.
If 75 million square feet are 0.9%, then the total office space is about 8300 million square feet, and vacant are about 1000 million.
If in 2009 and 2010 110 million are added each year, then by the end of 2010 there will be 8500m square feet of office space.
The net free space is forecasted to increase by around 360 m. per year. By the end of 2010 1700 million square feet will be empty.
I have been wondering if the loss of some sort of spiritual practice isn't a contributing reason for where this country has ended up. Where are we learning right and wrong?
anon "
Humans seem to have evolved a universal moral instinct throughout evolution, ie we are hardwired to recognize right from wrong: see for ex. See Moral Minds by Marc Hauser , How Nature Designed Our Universal Sense of Right and Wrong.
However how we KNOW right from wrong and ACT socially are not the same...need some brakes-red lights in the system to be enforced to keep the social games from getting out of hand
Ego can't be that delusional.
anon | 01.09.09 - 1:40 am | #
You're giving the man too much credit. Who amongst the living suffer not the messiah complex? It's a natural course of the life cycle. Some never recover from the notion that begins with, " Hell, if I were in charge, things would be better." This is usually accompanied by the interference inherent of an external sex organ (That's a bit of a trip to avoid saying penis..
I wish him well and I voted for him. Folk, he's in over his head. Anyone would be.
Nude: His plan? Plan? He ain't got no plan. He's runnin on the jazz, doin the A Team thang. He needs B A, Face and that other guy, the psycho pilot. Then, wing it!
BH impressive stuff on your video def con 15 click fraud. Most is way over my head. Just a thought with the sars virus could the defraction been suppressed?
Just a thought with the sars virus could the defraction been suppressed?
Purposely, you mean? Dejanews is a huge dataset. One reason I use it is because it's difficult for a single person to manipulate it, and a lot of skews fall out with that large of a sample.
I'm fairly sure the general public just didn't want to know anything about SARs, just like it's reluctant to know much about the current financial situation.
Yes, that's clear from the sympathetic echoes in the first graph. SARs outbreak triggered "avian flu" discussion and vice versa.
But what didn't happen was an increase discussion time for SARs. The same time that was used for "virus" was simply re-used for "SARs", no net increase in interest.
.
For 7 years GWB said the US was at WAR(as in the war on terror). That was a piece of cake compared to our current financial situation...
IIRC, the US during WWII, ran deficits over 100% of GNP for 4 years...We may get to the same level, however, we need a goal and direction for all these unemployed people to work towards...We need an industrial policy...
Though its been a long time ago...I still remember my USMC bootcamp days...
Boy, were they organized...From 4am in the morning until sunset, they (DI's)kept us busy...When we hit the rack, we were so tired, we were asleep before our heads hit the pillow...
Give some thought and consideration to businesses that started at the onset of dire economic conditions. There are all types of companies still in existence, still profitable after starting in 1929, 1942, 1972, 1991, 2002 etc etc
I won't cite examples, those more erudite (eruditer:-)) than me can do this. My point, other than the one at the top of my head, is that you should never bet against America. Have courage, be of good cheer. Things have a way of working out, even if at one point or another we have to ball up our hand into a fist and bust somebody up against they head.
Survival Mode...How can we pay for three million NEW jobs while allowing ONE MILLION legally new unemployed people to migrate to our shores...PER YEAR. RIGHT...HB VISA anyone.
Anonymous(Unrated) writes: The govt will need to set-up the new WPA...but to do so, the US needs to establish an Industrial Policy...
Response: Sigh. You people are going to kill millions.
Who are you going to sell the goods too? Maybe you have met those nice people across the Pacific Ocean, who are about to have one of history's great overcapacity-led depressions.
Just because you need to employ people does not mean the world needs industrial capacity.
You need to get to grips with the fact that your economy only needs to employ about 20 percent of the workforce and this "money / wealth" crap you keep jacking around with needs a SERIOUS revision to reflect this.
If the govt is going to employ the public, then they better start getting planning as to what these people will do after they have been processed, provided basic clothing, shots, and feeding schedule...Each individual should be evaluated for capabilities and assigned an MOS, provided training...and assigned to a job...It should be mandatory for everyone to sign up...If you have a job and a home...you can continue to live and work at your current location/job...
"My point, other than the one at the top of my head, is that you should never bet against Rome. Have courage, be of good cheer. Things have a way of working out,..."
On office vacancies...We're in a park with 8 sub-divided buildings and several surrounding free-standing ones. All I can say is the parking is getting better. Our bldg is 1/3 empty, the one across the courtyard is 1/2 empty. One of the largest ones is conservatively 1/2 empty now. With daylight savings time over, you can see the huge amount of dark space at 4:30pm every day. On the perimeter are at least 2 free standing bldgs that are completely empty. This is in a major commerce area just outside Phila - not the exurbs.
I remember them being filled with mortgage lenders, staffing agencies, etc. Down the road there is 500K s/ft new going up! We're vacating at the end of 2009 as we consolidate operations. It's scary to see the amount of non-leased space increasing at the rate it is. I'd wager vacancies are running at 20-25% for the entire complex.
Volker the Viking(Excellent) writes: My point, other than the one at the top of my head, is that you should never bet against America. Have courage, be of good cheer. Things have a way of working out, even if at one point or another we have to ball up our hand into a fist and bust somebody up against they head.
America has a continental land mass, two oceans and a well-established imperial cult.
I would be much more anxious if I lived someplace where these asinine antics could do something other than create a new dynasty.
"You need to get to grips with the fact that your economy only needs to employ about 20 percent of the workforce"
That's got to be the most ignorant, arrogant and stoopid thing I've ever read from you. Not that you make a habit of such statements.
Not enough coffee?
Something always needs to be done. Labor's utility is determined at the margin. There's always more wanting to be done than is done. Otherwise we'd still be chipping flint and living in caves.
Anonymous(Unrated) writes: If the govt is going to employ the public, then they better start getting planning as to what these people will do after they have been processed, provided basic clothing, shots, and feeding schedule...Each individual should be evaluated for capabilities and assigned an MOS, provided training...and assigned to a job
Worst possible approach. Mid 20th century centralized industrialism at its least effective. One dude will strew confetti, one will sweep it up, then there's the whole confetti reclamation and reprocessing industry, you've gotta repackage it, and get it back into the hands of the confetti-strewers. That's a green industrial cycle, right?
I mean, I guess we can pass the time having a romantic revival where we all act like we're 30s Soviet Propaganda illustration figures.
However, if you are not trying to replicate certain scenes from the movie Metropolis purely for the sake of art, I have to wonder what your plan is.
Our industrial policy should be directed towards things that America needs and don't mean rifles and tanks...
If our technological productive efficiencies produces increasing # of unemployed people, then the govt should employ these people perform services that are beneficial to the nation as a whole---Clean up the cities, national parks, child care, health services and etc...
I am no freaking bureaucrat...There are a lot of needs that have been ignored...If we are going to pay unemployed people, then we might as get something useful out of them...plus, the individuals will gain personal value/workth for accomplishing something...
Comrade Misean is Dope(Excellent) writes: That's got to be the most ignorant, arrogant and stoopid thing I've ever read from you. Not that you make a habit of such statements.
Awesome, we can have a service industry based economy. Woo, I just invented the FIRE sector!
No, seriously, Misean. The productive capacity of physical capital, it has grown quite mighty over time. I mean really, do you want to assert otherwise? How many 1900 man-hours of labor can an assembly line tech "perform"? And we are not just chasing the man-hours elsewhere in the supply chain, the tools are quantum leaps better than they used to be.
Postmodern economies cannot generate remotely full employment producing real goods. Say what you want, it's a bubble, massive structural unemployment, or some kind of social adjustment.
--
Does anyone know if CR has changed his mind about "CRE is not as over built as residential real estate?"
And about "housing inventory is being worked off?" David Rosenberg was wondering why builders were building any homes at all. With negative demand how can inventory of homes gets worked off other than demolition of existing homes?
It has been very clear to me that CR does not understand this economy. And one can't blame CR for being an economist. I am sorry, but vast majority of economists have been simply horribly blind in seeing the extent of this crisis and why it is so bad. Even David Rosenberg, one of the most pessimistic economists for the past few years and my favorite, admitted yesterday on CNBC that the economy is worse than he thought. These economists come from the general population and most are born-and-bred just like the rest of the population. Propaganda takes its toll on the best and the brightest.
Americas problem is Americans, economists included and much more so than the rest.
Where does population decline fit into all this? Won't that mean full employment for younger people? Having a child is not the same thing that it was 100 years ago. Could that be part of the reason that Europe has held onto its standard of living even while I have heard 40 years of predictions of a crash?
Anonymous(Unrated) writes: I believe the alternative to my idea of a new WPA/CCC is internal strife...
How does a fiscally bankrupt society pay for a WPA?
How does an administratively bankrupt society guide this WPA to be anything other than an Iraq or Katrina scale boondoggle?
I'm not just being a jerk, listen to what I'm saying. The immediate problems are debt and administrative malaise. Until those are solved, no other solutions can work.
When those are solved, we're going to have to come to grips with the 21st century, and part of the 21st century is that a lot of those "labor saving devices" were more like "labor factor scarcity eliminating devices".
If people want to all it around and drink beer, or dress like Greek aliens in a Star Trek episode, or pursue deliberately labor-inefficient productive methods, that's fine. Regardless, we better grapple with the immense surplus of human capital and the finite stocks of raw materials that comprise the situation at hand. We need to do it directly and not jut bumble along til we kill 79% of the population and the survivors enjoy the Renaissance.
Combined payout ratios of over 100% are not sustainable, and goes a lo0ng way towards explaining why the U.S. is becomeing less competitive. a $ spent buying back your shares durring a bull mkt is a $ that is not available to invest in R&D, more productive PP&E etc. Piss poor HH savings, plus govt deficits, and high corporate "consumption" in the form of rediculously high payout ratios. Oh by the way not in the post, but 2 of the top ten biggest repurchasers of stock from 2004-08, BAC and GS who now have there noses deep in the TARP slop bucket.
Jas, Jas, Jas....CR puts it out there for you and I to make our own MINDS up as to what may or may not be correct information that is coming from MSM and/or our own goverment.
Keep posting because I truly get you...I'm an old bitch in high heels and don't won't your body just your brain.
America's problem is Americans, economists included and much more so than the rest.
Jas \t Jas Jain | \t \t \tHomepage | \t01.09.09 - 8:22 am | #
And the country where everybody is so well educated AND understands something besides their own situation (if that) is WHERE?
Maybe Germany has a significantly better setup. Everybody else seemed to blindly follow (or even push ahead) of what Phil Gramm and Bush43co were leading.
Ghost of F. D. Roosevelt(Unrated) writes: \tZionist savagery, and American connivance must stop. Ghost of F. D. Roosevelt | Homepage | 01.09.09 - 8:27 am | #
Let me fix that for you:
Islamist savagery and Saudi/Syrian/Iranian/Pakistanian connivance must stop.
Anonymous(Unrated) writes: While my possible solution, whats your plan?
I'm a eumdaimonist. We should all go to college for the rest of our lives and discuss how many angels could dance on the head of a pin.
You work so you can live. Well, we got to where we barely need to work. Now you are trying to invent ways to work more. So the animal raised in a cage continues to pace out its dimensions by habit. Gotta get back to the zoo, what will I do without a scheduled life lived for someone else's profit? how will I know I'm winning if I can't compare bank accounts to tell?
Maybe we could make a scoreboard of good deeds and give extra ice cream to the virtuous.
My idea previously worked during GDI and WWII...
Oh, WW2? You mean the thing that built the industrial base that spawned neo-colonial exploitation to meet its raw materials needs and consequently absolutely ruined the future of the world?
Awesome, let's do it again and see how it works now that there are many more greedy people and many less places to reduce to rentier resource-states.
--
Only 3.5M net jobs for the past 8 years, 0.3% annual, under evildoers Greenspan, Bush and Bernanke.
And how many Americans got rich and made billions during the same period, many of them Bankrupters and Fraudsters?
What can born-and-bred American dopes do about the evil govt of the Unites States of America whose whole focus has been pushing more and more and more debt on the current and future population?
Is there is any doubt about the evil nature of the govt in America?
Anonymous(Unrated) writes: No disrespect, however, how does a nation run two wars for 7 years by a fiscally bankrupt society?
Look at where you are talking from!
LOOK AT WHERE YOU ARE STANDING.
You are having a heartfelt argument planning for the WPA to fend off social unrest during the Second Great Depression.
So that is how you run two wars and unlimited sweet creamy butter for the kids at home too. Fraud. And the answer to that fraud is, just guessing, probably not more fraud to conceal the effects of the previous swindling.
wouldn't you say that whatever policy that we could select has problems...Isn't it better to start planning now as opposed to being forced to come up with a half-ass solution on the fly with possibly more unintended consequences...
Wow, especially given that it's an anti-regulation state, Texas has its head on straight about home equity loans Amongst much more:
The total of all mortgage debt (not just the home equity loan) cannot exceed 80% of the fair market value of the home.
Lenders are prohibited from charging fees and costs (other than interest) which exceed 3% of the
principal amount of the loan
Not later than the day prior to closing, the borrower must receive a final itemized disclosure of the actual fees, points, interest, costs, and charges that will be charged.
--
"And the country where everybody is so well educated AND understands something besides their own situation (if that) is WHERE?"
bobn,
Why is that important when we are talking here about the American economy and American culture/system that underlies it?
I only compare Americans with the Americans in the past. Today's Americans are far more doped, undisciplined and immoral, compared with the past. The greatest rise in immorality has been at the very top. Era of the Evildoers, as the top economic and political leaders, is a recent phenomenon. There were few evildoers in the past but now evildoers are the norm.
This from the commissioner's statement on unemployment
"
The number of persons working part time who would have
preferred full-time employment also continued to increase in
December, rising to 8.0 million. Over the last 12 months, the
number of such workers has grown by 3.4 million"
Anonymous(Unrated) writes: Isn't it better to start planning now as opposed to being forced to come up with a half-ass solution on the fly with possibly more unintended consequences...
Are you a policy figure asking for a serious proposal? If not, I have to say, you are basically asking me to submit something for your approval and then it will be inadequately detailed, or pie-in-the-sky, or unworkable. Not like your plan, which is sporty and nice, as you are both its parent and judge.
If you do want a policy proposal, contact me through a comment in my blog and I will work with you through developing a policy solution that matches the scope of your policy theatre and resources.
especially given that it's an anti-regulation state, Texas has its head on straight about home equity loans
Because so many of its earliest settlers were debtors on the lam, the only thing TX has historically hated more than regulation is out-of-state banks. Probably the most generous bankruptcy exemptions in the nation.
But of course, state lending laws don't apply to national banks, even if they only have one branch...
I was chased out of my bldg 'cause Miami-Dade CC bought it. Moved right next door, more space, much nicer bldg, only a tad more. Should have offered even less I guess. 3 offices on my floor vacant.
Was someone abusing my good name last nite while I was driving up to the Space Coast?
Oil bust in Denver (80's)left so much empty space that we called Downtown the Canyon. I hear it took almost 2 decades to fill it up and start a new skyscraper a while back.
Maybe CR can hike the new canyons coming. Love the picks I am in the flat lands.
Please don't confuse Austin with Texas. It is a little California.
It is a shame we now have home equity loans. Most home owners are not smart enough to use home equity. The home should be a home period. Buy early, pay off by time you retire. I see these 60 year olds coming to hill country wanting 20 year loans to buy their weekend ranchette. It's nuts. Quit taking on debt.
Interesting Times writes:
PCA - I dropped $20 into the blanket of a man sleeping on a building's heat exhaust tongiht. It is easily the coldest night of this winter. The man didn't wake up.
I have on many occasions taken a person from the street into a near by pizza place or McD to feed them and listen to their stories. Then go home and cry my eyes out.
My wife doesn't understand.... but there is a survior's guilt to success.
Interesting Times | 01.09.09 - 1:04 am | #
no interesting times,the peoples who are well fed will never understand it.A physically well person becomes invalid due to economic problems or a person who has real difficult physical problems:both cant stand chance to survive.
I stay in india and everyday i see many old folks who were kicked out of their homes bytheir children.Most of times i give them money possible ti have a light dinner.I cant do much becoz i am myself poor.
This is when hindu philosophy helps me.A human/animal got his fate.It is never more true in india.
good night
Bobn, the world has had enough of neocon bigotry, hatred, lies and mass murder. Neocon media hacks, financial scammers, traitors, lobbyists, spies and academic liars have managed to bring misery to millions in the US and throughout the world. Israel and its power base in the US have passed the point of no return. No amount of lying, doublespeak or corruption can restore the absolute domination they once had over the public mind. It is time to jump ship, Bobn, and be pragmatic about your survival. Overcoming Zionism is a challenge to most indoctrination victims, but it is possible. Just follow the path of some righteous Israelis like Gilad Atzmon. People like him are the ultimate realists, you can definitely learn something from them.
I agree with CR that CRE was not overbuilt to the extent residential was,however extreeml optomistic rental growth projections combined with 6% cap rates and interest only loans which come due in 3,5 or 7 years will result in a huge problem for regional banks. Regionals are in big trouble.
Why does the majority elect such representatives ???
ppk | 01.09.09 - 1:23 am | #
Because more people watch American Idol than the Presidential debates? Perhaps it is that Guns, Gods and Gays thing that has been so effectively used to distract people. We would be so much better if people focused more finding salvation here on earth rather than in some after life.
Makes you wonder- the least religious societies seem to have the greatest social justice?
bobn writes:
Ghost of F. D. Roosevelt(Unrated) writes:
Zionist savagery, and American connivance must stop.
Ghost of F. D. Roosevelt | Homepage | 01.09.09 - 8:27 am | #
Let me fix that for you:
Islamist savagery and Saudi/Syrian/Iranian/Pakistanian connivance must stop.
See here for more information.
bobn | Homepage | 01.09.09 - 8:39 am |
bobn- and your point is ??? that as long as they do it it is ok? How about all their connivance should stop - starting with those who consider themselves most civilized. BTW if they don't then how do they consider themselves most civilized?
"Religion is the sigh of the oppressed creature, the heart of a heartless world, just as it is the spirit of a spiritless situation. It is the opium of the people."
-Karl Marx (1843)
I for one did not expect Austin to have such a high vac rate. Texas as a whole seems to be doing well in terms of econ growth (rel to nation of course)
Negative Absorption? Man, we needed those words for RRE!
o prob.. we'll just bail em out
It's now minus 11 C (minus 20 factoring the wind). There are too many homeless people in the city.
Bailouts should first help those in the greatest need for shelter, food and security.
Something is horribly wrong with humanity when there is 100 million sq ft of space and homelesss people are dying of exposure or lighting themselves on fire in ATM atriums.
Global Warming shelters? Makes sense to me.
I suspect we're getting closer and closer to peak stupidity.
The gross malinvestment in commercial and residential real estate was obvious to any policy maker that bothered to look.
And now people are shocked?!
What are these same geniuses going to say when the Treasury bubble pops? We didn't see it coming?!
Interesting Times,
There's been enough food & shelter in the world for everyone going back decades. The limiting factor has always been politics, and one way or another people always get the political systems they want.
404 Error, No such article | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle
Consumer borrowing fell $7.9 billion in November
The Federal Reserve reported today that borrowing on credit cards, and for such things as auto loans, dropped at an annual rate of $7.94 billion in November, the biggest decline in 65 years of record keeping.
Wait...highest rate in 4 years...snoooore. Wake me when we start approaching 2001 levels after the dot-com crash.
In no way does this even sound bad to me. More like a normal business cycle.
Interesting Times writes:
Something is horribly wrong with humanity when...
we spend more time posting comments on blogs than helping said homeless people?
anyone know what the whisper number is for tomorrow's jobs report? What is 'expected'?
FFDIC,
Amazing how new stats come in these days always saying "worst reading in XX years", isn't it?
and one way or another people always get the political systems they want.
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) | 01.09.09 - 12:56 am | #
Voices at the margins are the easiest and first to be ignored...
I never wanted a system that marginalizes people who were born into less opportunity, have mental or health other issues. But it's what we all got.
Looking at the amounts being spent by our representatives to support a fraudulent system and seeing that only a tiny fraction would provide for those in greatest of need is what really makes me a nihilist for this society.
Ok off my soap box. nite.
Could you convert office CRE to hourly 'love' motels or incalls?
I have a million thoughts on the local market. What do you want to know? Have you bought? Are you looking? I have a room for rent w/private bath $450.
FFDIC | 01.09.09 - 12:50 am | #
That come with broadband internet access? Now you've got to compete with the office spaces!
PCA - I dropped $20 into the blanket of a man sleeping on a building's heat exhaust tongiht. It is easily the coldest night of this winter. The man didn't wake up.
I have on many occasions taken a person from the street into a near by pizza place or McD to feed them and listen to their stories. Then go home and cry my eyes out.
My wife doesn't understand.... but there is a survior's guilt to success.
What happened to office rents during the late '70s/early '80s great inflation? I bet they went down then too.
and with the demise of wamu and the redundancy of corporate in seattle
theres another couple drops in the bucket of surplus office space
Good riddance for most CRE developers. We don't need an economy based on stupid land use planning decisions. And no surprise that economists have 'missed the gravity of the turn' again. They're just looking at old curves, and drawing new ones by doing a little regression analysis to get the next data point.
This is Mr. Market in action. We DO need to rebuild rail, shipping channels, maybe some bridges and roads. NOT more office parks built out in the edge of an exurb.
Interesting Times,
My comment was directed at the knee-jerk reactions to your insightful remark.
What about converting CRE into free housing for the homeless? If you give them shelter, food and basic medical care it would be cheaper than keeping them on the street.
interesting discussion of nyt article over at yves smiths place
will they or will they not continue to finance our current account deficit...china and treasuries purchases
(they are loosing their appetite)
NY Times: China Cooling on US Debt « naked capitalism
Mock Turtle - Brad Setser wrote an interesting piece on the NYT arty..
PCA - no prob. nite.
I never wanted a system
Interesting Times | 01.09.09 - 1:01 am | #
None of us would choose that directly, but indirectly we all have. The world around us reflects both the best and worst we humans have to offer. Don't know how humanity in general could ever be considered humane.
TWO ALLIANCE CENTER
Buckhead office tower nears completion
By KEVIN DUFFY
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Friday, January 02, 2009
The topping-out ceremony for Two Alliance Center, one of several office buildings under construction in Buckhead, is scheduled for Wednesday. Topping out marks the end of structural work.
Two Alliance Center is scheduled to open in the summer, two years after construction began. About 2 million square feet of office space is being built in Buckhead, and landlords are struggling to sign tenants in a depressed market.
mock turtle
That's just it though.
China has no option but to make a choice
They still are not ready to let the Renminbi appreciate. They are going to try to do both until they can see others commit
Hmmm...
China to launch pilot program of trade settlement with yuan
Looking at the amounts being spent by our representatives to support a fraudulent system and seeing that only a tiny fraction would provide for those in greatest of need is what really makes me a nihilist for this society.
Ok off my soap box. nite.
Interesting Times
Yes, why do our representatives grudge pennies to the poor but jump at the chance to bailout the fraudulent firms on wall street. I think the answer is pretty simple, the government primarily caters to interests of the wealthy. But why is that ?? Why does the majority elect such representatives ???
"Why does the majority elect such representatives ?"
old people vote, rich people vote, and a disturbingly large segment of the populace is actually influenced by the media space that money buys.
and i really hate to bring it up again, but 45% of the populace believes humanity is less than 10,000 years old. do you really want them to vote in any case?
OT,
Corruption in muni bond markets alleged : "Pay-to-play in the municipal bond market is epidemic" says Charles Anderson, manager of tax exempt bond field operations for the IRS in 2007,
U.S. investigates bidding for municipal bonds - The New York Times
"but there is a survior's guilt to success."
I know exactly how you feel, and I would not consider myself a success. I feel guilty just to have warm clothes and a roof over my head when so many do not.
"I feel guilty"
clean water comes before all of that
The 10 lowest GINI coefficients:
125 \tBosnia and Herzegovina:\t26.2 \t2001
126 \tCzech Republic:\t26 \t2005
127 \tLuxembourg:\t26 \t2005
128 \tFinland:\t26 \t2005
129 \tAustria:\t26 \t2005
130 \tSlovakia:\t26 \t2005
131 \tIceland:\t25 \t2005
132 \tSlovenia:\t24 \t2005
133 \tDenmark:\t24 \t2005
134 \tSweden:\t23 \t2005
42 \tUnited States:\t45 \t2007
Dollar investors wary of bond market bubble
Dollar investors typically look everywhere but the U.S. bond market for clues on the direction of the greenback but with record amounts of U.S. debt being issued to break the recession, these are not ordinary times. The U.S. government is borrowing at record levels to pay for an economic bailout and while a flight to safety prompted strong demand late last year, investors are beginning to worry that bond prices have risen so far and so fast that they could be the next asset class to suffer a downturn. Already holding billions of dollars in U.S. government debt, domestic institutional investors and foreigners including Asian central banks could incur enormous capital losses, prompting them to sell at the first hint of trouble. ...
Remember VP Biden's comments about Pres Obama being challenged right after taking power. Looks like a currency crisis will be the challenge.
Or an escalation in the Middle East.
Or Russia taking back some territory.
Or race riots starting in Oakland.
Or a collapse of state unemployment.
Or a collapse of California.
Or a tax revolt after informing us IOUs can be expected for our tax refunds.
Or a stimulus program funding shortfall.
Or any of a hundred possibilities.
and he worked hard for the privilege to serve his country. Why would anyone want the job? Altruism has to be the answer. Ego can't be that delusional.
"The 10 lowest GINI "
much of central europe has old-style organized crime. one wonders exactly how much money is in the informal economy there, and if the gangsters are possibly an uncounted 'upper class', or have 20K/yr 'legit' jobs, ala tony soprano's trash company w2.
and i really hate to bring it up again, but 45% of the populace believes humanity is less than 10,000 years old. do you really want them to vote in any case?
bgates | 01.09.09 - 1:28 am
No more than we want you to vote.
Payrolls -525K expected .. but some confusion given 'new' ADP and initial claims y'day.
(well , the country may have lost some...
but think about how nice this was for those who purchased what was sold in such a timely fashion!
and im sure wealthy influential individuals had nothing to do with getting those in the government to comply)
Gordon Brown's decision to sell half of the UK's gold reserves 'cost UK £5billion' - Telegraph
"The sale of more than half of the country's gold reserves between 1999 and 2002 has proved to be deeply controversial.
Critics say that signalling such a large sale of bullion to gold traders helped to drive the precious metal to a 20-year low.
In 17 auctions, Mr Brown as Chancellor of the Exchequer sanctioned the sale of 395 tonnes of gold."
"No more than we want you to vote."
fair enough! i actually liked huckabee more than mccain, in any case.
"but some confusion "
when aren't these #s adjusted later, in any case?
Right now isn't a bad time to find religion. The loss of community among the citizenry has been exacerbated by the inability to find common cause and like minded people.
Blogs don't count.
"Right now isn't a bad time to find religion."
i'd imagine it is a good time for selling religion and narcotics. funny how that works.
I'd like to demand a recount on the jobless numbers. There have been numerous reports about the system crashing while people are trying to register on the unemployment line. Leave no chad hanging!
Opiate of the masses... Religion provides community and community provides protection.
The thought has been expressed that Americans will sit in their homes and use the other opiate, television and the internet, to hide from the economic crisis and its possible outcomes. Religion requires you to meet, interact, and provide support. All important considerations in dealing with a depression.
Azurite: Thanks for that story...it's a big one. Should be on the front pages but, as usual, it's not! Interesting that AIG was involved. Buncha crooks...especially Greenberg, who's another Madoff.
"Negative absorption" sound like a euphemism used by college P-chem majors for "puked your guts out."
"Religion provides community"
jim jones comes to mind
Drink the kool aid. That describes most of America.
You can do better.
I ran into Mrs. Hepinstall at the Jewish Community Center today. She told me that Mr. Madoff tried to mail his foreskin to the Pope in one of those fancy gold boxes from Pier I that are 75% off this week. She bought a dozen to put matzah balls in for Passover gifts.
Matzah ball - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Whatever happened to the potential year end gold delivery squeeze at Nymex/comex?
I'm not religious.
I have been wondering if the loss of some sort of spiritual practice isn't a contributing reason for where this country has ended up. Where are we learning right and wrong?
Just a thought.
OT: I didn't have the chance to ask this on the earlier thread on rental rates but fewer people can afford a mortgage and credit is tight...why isn't demand for apartment rentals through the roof?
"why isn't demand for apartment rentals through the roof?"
anecdotally:
much of central europe has old-style organized crime. one wonders exactly how much money is in the informal economy there, and if the gangsters are possibly an uncounted 'upper class', or have 20K/yr 'legit' jobs, ala tony soprano's trash company w2.
bgates
Funny, I don't see Bulgaria or Hungary in that list. Next theory?
This article is very telling, at least for Texas. Austin has been held a bastion for a long time as where thing were different. Top 10 for the last 5 yrs for CRE b/c of oil, education, and we didn't partake in crazy price hikes. All the smart growth over the last five years has really given me the heebie jeebies. I hope it works out, but I'm not so sure.
Would like to hear any other texans pov on the matter...or any yankees!
"Funny, I don't see Bulgaria or Hungary in that list"
no, but you do see CZ, SK and slovenia. and bulgaria isn't in central europe, incidentally.
*was specifically referring to Austin. (Lord knows "education" in texas does not apply)
"at least for Texas"
this was also my reaction. low energy prices don't exist in a vacuum, of course.
My old man is freaked out. He thinks it's going to be the 80's all over again. The rest of the country will recover and texas will flounder. No one will give a damn about the oil...and we will lag behind in recover at least 5 yrs.
"He thinks it's going to be the 80's all over again."
the rest of the country is and was oblivious to how brutal the oil bust was in texas. they also think that reagan toppled the soviet union by the sheer power of his hair.
JD2B,
1880's? The oil rush was just beginning the
Texas is different and had some good laws to protect them from the poor lending practices.
"Unique Aspects of Texas Home Equity Loans
Because Texas laws have traditionally been designed to protect individuals and their families, home equity loans were not even possible in Texas until late 1997. Change comes slowly, however, so when Texas real estate law was finally amended to permit home equity loans, it included some of the strongest consumer protections in the nation. The law is both lengthy and complex, but some of the most significant provisions are:"
Home Equity Loans in Texas
"Texas is different "
incredibly gigantic property taxes also discourage the home-as-atm dynamic
Forget about Texas and an oil bust -- what about Alaska. Resident oil checks, a fresh mountain of debt, and other spending depends on an unhedged oil price while the only other industries are coast guard and air force.
Well I don't want to increase the paranoia but a few threads back someone asked about what Paulson said to Congress. I had an idea but I self-censored myself for the first time. I have no doubt there were threats of some violence.
I question the 15.1%, judging from the graph alone:
In 2008 the net free office space (additions minus absorption) increased by about 75 million square feet. This let the vacancy rate rise from 11.1 to 12%.
If 75 million square feet are 0.9%, then the total office space is about 8300 million square feet, and vacant are about 1000 million.
If in 2009 and 2010 110 million are added each year, then by the end of 2010 there will be 8500m square feet of office space.
The net free space is forecasted to increase by around 360 m. per year. By the end of 2010 1700 million square feet will be empty.
But 1700 of 8500 is 20%, not 15.1%.
Did i misunderstand something?
we spend more time posting comments on blogs than helping said homeless people?
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse | Homepage | 01.09.09 - 12:59 am | #
Screw the homeless, let them post their own comments.
I have been wondering if the loss of some sort of spiritual practice isn't a contributing reason for where this country has ended up. Where are we learning right and wrong?
anon "
Humans seem to have evolved a universal moral instinct throughout evolution, ie we are hardwired to recognize right from wrong: see for ex. See Moral Minds by Marc Hauser , How Nature Designed Our Universal Sense of Right and Wrong.
However how we KNOW right from wrong and ACT socially are not the same...need some brakes-red lights in the system to be enforced to keep the social games from getting out of hand
Ego can't be that delusional.
anon | 01.09.09 - 1:40 am | #
You're giving the man too much credit. Who amongst the living suffer not the messiah complex? It's a natural course of the life cycle. Some never recover from the notion that begins with, " Hell, if I were in charge, things would be better." This is usually accompanied by the interference inherent of an external sex organ (That's a bit of a trip to avoid saying penis..
I wish him well and I voted for him. Folk, he's in over his head. Anyone would be.
anon writes: Where are we learning right and wrong?
I get mine from the intertube. And PBS.
I voted for him too, but can anyone actually claim that his plan is the right thing to do, given everything we know about what caused this mess?
Volker,
Up pretty late, planning some pillaging?
So long as it comes with the requisite ancillary privileges.
Nude: His plan? Plan? He ain't got no plan. He's runnin on the jazz, doin the A Team thang. He needs B A, Face and that other guy, the psycho pilot. Then, wing it!
Hoenig Fed
Yada yada yada weshoodanode yada yada weshoodstimulate yada yada yada weshood be more careful.
http://www.kansascityfed.org/speechbio/hoenigPDF/CentralExch01.07.09.pdf
Wow, down to five visitors?
I was downtown tonight on Capitol hill in Seattle. The amount of new construction is staggering. I might take some photos tomorrow and post them.
Any update on the story of UBS closing down the Swiss offshore accounts of 19k U.S. clients?
Capitol Hill huh?
BH: Still minus the sense to come in out of the rain.
BH impressive stuff on your video def con 15 click fraud. Most is way over my head. Just a thought with the sars virus could the defraction been suppressed?
Broward Horne(Excellent) writes:
Wow, down to five visitors?
Sleep is when I'm a matador. Can't miss that.
BH: Still minus the sense to come in out of the rain.
Ate dinner at BoomNoodle and went to a play.
Error 404 - Not found
The DeSade play was interesting & disturbing because it asked you to compare the French Revolution to today's U.S.
I doubt if Obama can float "trillion dollar deficits for the foreseeable future".
.
Just a thought with the sars virus could the defraction been suppressed?
Purposely, you mean? Dejanews is a huge dataset. One reason I use it is because it's difficult for a single person to manipulate it, and a lot of skews fall out with that large of a sample.
I'm fairly sure the general public just didn't want to know anything about SARs, just like it's reluctant to know much about the current financial situation.
Nature of people.
.
we need a euphism tread.. "negative absorbtion" good one for today..
have another one "overeducated" instead of stupid...
When sars hit I know I linked to bird flu.
what happened to the Larry Flint bailout plan?? it is the one that really should happen
)
imagine no "trickle down econ" but "shoot up econ" ( the flint plan)
)
More like "It didn't friggin trickle down so we start shoot'em UP!"
Big Badabum coming...
"the rest of the country is and was oblivious to how brutal the oil bust was in texas."
and texas paid us back with george w.
congrats.
yeah you have been Bushed
)
When sars hit I know I linked to bird flu.
Yes, that's clear from the sympathetic echoes in the first graph. SARs outbreak triggered "avian flu" discussion and vice versa.
But what didn't happen was an increase discussion time for SARs. The same time that was used for "virus" was simply re-used for "SARs", no net increase in interest.
.
Look at "federal deficit" -
Google Trends: federal deficit
Less interest over time as the deficits got bigger. Nobody wants to know. It's measurable denial.
.
Well, instead of first, I guess I am last...
Awful creepy, to be the only one...
Thought for next thread...
Take these empty buildings, get lots of cots, military blankets and a bunch of army/navy cooks...
Where it is really cold...protecting the homeless will be critical...
The govt will need to set-up the new WPA...but to do so, the US needs to establish an Industrial Policy...
It looks like we will need the military to run this operation...no one else in govt has had the practice...
jmho
Mr. Beach(Unrated) writes:
\tI suspect we're getting closer and closer to peak stupidity.
Mr. Beach | 01.09.09 - 12:55 am | #
I'm on this one!
what happened to the Larry Flint bailout plan?? it is the one that really should happen
)
Yoringe | 01.09.09 - 7:20 am | #
Definitely an industry in need of reflation. snicker
I suspect we're getting closer and closer to peak stupidity.
Mr. Beach | 01.09.09 - 12:55 am | #
Check out chemtrails and their effect.
BH thanks
Seven% unemployment this morning, guess I'll go to Walmart and see if they have any job openings.
For 7 years GWB said the US was at WAR(as in the war on terror). That was a piece of cake compared to our current financial situation...
IIRC, the US during WWII, ran deficits over 100% of GNP for 4 years...We may get to the same level, however, we need a goal and direction for all these unemployed people to work towards...We need an industrial policy...
Though its been a long time ago...I still remember my USMC bootcamp days...
Boy, were they organized...From 4am in the morning until sunset, they (DI's)kept us busy...When we hit the rack, we were so tired, we were asleep before our heads hit the pillow...
Give some thought and consideration to businesses that started at the onset of dire economic conditions. There are all types of companies still in existence, still profitable after starting in 1929, 1942, 1972, 1991, 2002 etc etc
I won't cite examples, those more erudite (eruditer:-)) than me can do this. My point, other than the one at the top of my head, is that you should never bet against America. Have courage, be of good cheer. Things have a way of working out, even if at one point or another we have to ball up our hand into a fist and bust somebody up against they head.
Survival Mode...How can we pay for three million NEW jobs while allowing ONE MILLION legally new unemployed people to migrate to our shores...PER YEAR. RIGHT...HB VISA anyone.
Anonymous(Unrated) writes:
The govt will need to set-up the new WPA...but to do so, the US needs to establish an Industrial Policy...
Response: Sigh. You people are going to kill millions.
Who are you going to sell the goods too? Maybe you have met those nice people across the Pacific Ocean, who are about to have one of history's great overcapacity-led depressions.
Just because you need to employ people does not mean the world needs industrial capacity.
You need to get to grips with the fact that your economy only needs to employ about 20 percent of the workforce and this "money / wealth" crap you keep jacking around with needs a SERIOUS revision to reflect this.
If the govt is going to employ the public, then they better start getting planning as to what these people will do after they have been processed, provided basic clothing, shots, and feeding schedule...Each individual should be evaluated for capabilities and assigned an MOS, provided training...and assigned to a job...It should be mandatory for everyone to sign up...If you have a job and a home...you can continue to live and work at your current location/job...
Let me fix that for you VtV,
"My point, other than the one at the top of my head, is that you should never bet against Rome. Have courage, be of good cheer. Things have a way of working out,..."
Nostrovia,
On office vacancies...We're in a park with 8 sub-divided buildings and several surrounding free-standing ones. All I can say is the parking is getting better. Our bldg is 1/3 empty, the one across the courtyard is 1/2 empty. One of the largest ones is conservatively 1/2 empty now. With daylight savings time over, you can see the huge amount of dark space at 4:30pm every day. On the perimeter are at least 2 free standing bldgs that are completely empty. This is in a major commerce area just outside Phila - not the exurbs.
I remember them being filled with mortgage lenders, staffing agencies, etc. Down the road there is 500K s/ft new going up! We're vacating at the end of 2009 as we consolidate operations. It's scary to see the amount of non-leased space increasing at the rate it is. I'd wager vacancies are running at 20-25% for the entire complex.
I'll make my monthly un-enjoyment vs. dow close prediction:
+100 for every 100k over -700k.
-800 -> down 100 on the day.
-700 -> flat
-500 -> +200.
Volker the Viking(Excellent) writes:
My point, other than the one at the top of my head, is that you should never bet against America. Have courage, be of good cheer. Things have a way of working out, even if at one point or another we have to ball up our hand into a fist and bust somebody up against they head.
America has a continental land mass, two oceans and a well-established imperial cult.
I would be much more anxious if I lived someplace where these asinine antics could do something other than create a new dynasty.
B_R,
"You need to get to grips with the fact that your economy only needs to employ about 20 percent of the workforce"
That's got to be the most ignorant, arrogant and stoopid thing I've ever read from you. Not that you make a habit of such statements.
Not enough coffee?
Something always needs to be done. Labor's utility is determined at the margin. There's always more wanting to be done than is done. Otherwise we'd still be chipping flint and living in caves.
Nostrovia,
Anonymous(Unrated) writes:
If the govt is going to employ the public, then they better start getting planning as to what these people will do after they have been processed, provided basic clothing, shots, and feeding schedule...Each individual should be evaluated for capabilities and assigned an MOS, provided training...and assigned to a job
Worst possible approach. Mid 20th century centralized industrialism at its least effective. One dude will strew confetti, one will sweep it up, then there's the whole confetti reclamation and reprocessing industry, you've gotta repackage it, and get it back into the hands of the confetti-strewers. That's a green industrial cycle, right?
I mean, I guess we can pass the time having a romantic revival where we all act like we're 30s Soviet Propaganda illustration figures.
However, if you are not trying to replicate certain scenes from the movie Metropolis purely for the sake of art, I have to wonder what your plan is.
Our industrial policy should be directed towards things that America needs and don't mean rifles and tanks...
If our technological productive efficiencies produces increasing # of unemployed people, then the govt should employ these people perform services that are beneficial to the nation as a whole---Clean up the cities, national parks, child care, health services and etc...
I am no freaking bureaucrat...There are a lot of needs that have been ignored...If we are going to pay unemployed people, then we might as get something useful out of them...plus, the individuals will gain personal value/workth for accomplishing something...
Comrade Misean is Dope(Excellent) writes:
That's got to be the most ignorant, arrogant and stoopid thing I've ever read from you. Not that you make a habit of such statements.
Awesome, we can have a service industry based economy. Woo, I just invented the FIRE sector!
No, seriously, Misean. The productive capacity of physical capital, it has grown quite mighty over time. I mean really, do you want to assert otherwise? How many 1900 man-hours of labor can an assembly line tech "perform"? And we are not just chasing the man-hours elsewhere in the supply chain, the tools are quantum leaps better than they used to be.
Postmodern economies cannot generate remotely full employment producing real goods. Say what you want, it's a bubble, massive structural unemployment, or some kind of social adjustment.
I believe the alternative to my idea of a new WPA/CCC is internal strife...
What percentage of the nation's unemployed does it have to be to reach a tipping point...riots...
--
Does anyone know if CR has changed his mind about "CRE is not as over built as residential real estate?"
And about "housing inventory is being worked off?" David Rosenberg was wondering why builders were building any homes at all. With negative demand how can inventory of homes gets worked off other than demolition of existing homes?
It has been very clear to me that CR does not understand this economy. And one can't blame CR for being an economist. I am sorry, but vast majority of economists have been simply horribly blind in seeing the extent of this crisis and why it is so bad. Even David Rosenberg, one of the most pessimistic economists for the past few years and my favorite, admitted yesterday on CNBC that the economy is worse than he thought. These economists come from the general population and most are born-and-bred just like the rest of the population. Propaganda takes its toll on the best and the brightest.
Americas problem is Americans, economists included and much more so than the rest.
Jas
There will be a tipping point...
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins,
While my possible solution, whats your plan? My idea previously worked during GDI and WWII...
Forget about the invisible hand of the market...this and the current business leadership has definitely failed spectacularly...
Where does population decline fit into all this? Won't that mean full employment for younger people? Having a child is not the same thing that it was 100 years ago. Could that be part of the reason that Europe has held onto its standard of living even while I have heard 40 years of predictions of a crash?
Zionist savagery, and American connivance must stop.
Channel 4 UK Report From Gaza
Video
Meet the children left to die among the bodies of their parents and families
Default Viral Title Player
-
Anonymous(Unrated) writes:
I believe the alternative to my idea of a new WPA/CCC is internal strife...
How does a fiscally bankrupt society pay for a WPA?
How does an administratively bankrupt society guide this WPA to be anything other than an Iraq or Katrina scale boondoggle?
I'm not just being a jerk, listen to what I'm saying. The immediate problems are debt and administrative malaise. Until those are solved, no other solutions can work.
When those are solved, we're going to have to come to grips with the 21st century, and part of the 21st century is that a lot of those "labor saving devices" were more like "labor factor scarcity eliminating devices".
If people want to all it around and drink beer, or dress like Greek aliens in a Star Trek episode, or pursue deliberately labor-inefficient productive methods, that's fine. Regardless, we better grapple with the immense surplus of human capital and the finite stocks of raw materials that comprise the situation at hand. We need to do it directly and not jut bumble along til we kill 79% of the population and the survivors enjoy the Renaissance.
Just IMO.
IWannaknow,
I was referring the percentage of unemployed relative to the total population...
Idle hands are the devil's playground...
Naked Capitalism has a good post on dividends and buybacks:
Dividends: What the Bank Giveth, the Bank Now Taketh Away « naked capitalism
Combined payout ratios of over 100% are not sustainable, and goes a lo0ng way towards explaining why the U.S. is becomeing less competitive. a $ spent buying back your shares durring a bull mkt is a $ that is not available to invest in R&D, more productive PP&E etc. Piss poor HH savings, plus govt deficits, and high corporate "consumption" in the form of rediculously high payout ratios. Oh by the way not in the post, but 2 of the top ten biggest repurchasers of stock from 2004-08, BAC and GS who now have there noses deep in the TARP slop bucket.
Idle hands are the devil's playground...
Anonymous | 01.09.09 - 8:28 am | #
4 minutes until we find out how many idle hands were added.
Jas, Jas, Jas....CR puts it out there for you and I to make our own MINDS up as to what may or may not be correct information that is coming from MSM and/or our own goverment.
Keep posting because I truly get you...I'm an old bitch in high heels and don't won't your body just your brain.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins,
How does a fiscally bankrupt society pay for a WPA?
No disrespect, however, how does a nation run two wars for 7 years by a fiscally bankrupt society?
Going into WWII, the US wasn't exactly in the best economic situation...
-524 , rate 7.2%
--
-524K; 7.2%!!!!!!!!
Jas
America's problem is Americans, economists included and much more so than the rest.
Jas
| \t01.09.09 - 8:22 am | #
\t Jas Jain | \t \t \tHomepage
And the country where everybody is so well educated AND understands something besides their own situation (if that) is WHERE?
Maybe Germany has a significantly better setup. Everybody else seemed to blindly follow (or even push ahead) of what Phil Gramm and Bush43co were leading.
significant downward revisions (shocker!!!!!).
1.53 million? Reuters
Unemployment up - S&P futures up.
Woohoo!
The frightening thing is that this job reprot is almost good news; even with the downward revisions, it's not as bad as the ADP forecast.
Sorry, that was Q4.
-524? - "Good" news.
well, the world didn't end..................... they'll be sykin' 'em, boss.
Bubblevision already spinning the "beat the whisper number".
Ghost of F. D. Roosevelt(Unrated) writes:
\tZionist savagery, and American connivance must stop.
Ghost of F. D. Roosevelt | Homepage | 01.09.09 - 8:27 am | #
Let me fix that for you:
Islamist savagery and Saudi/Syrian/Iranian/Pakistanian connivance must stop.
See here for more information.
Anonymous(Unrated) writes:
While my possible solution, whats your plan?
I'm a eumdaimonist. We should all go to college for the rest of our lives and discuss how many angels could dance on the head of a pin.
You work so you can live. Well, we got to where we barely need to work. Now you are trying to invent ways to work more. So the animal raised in a cage continues to pace out its dimensions by habit. Gotta get back to the zoo, what will I do without a scheduled life lived for someone else's profit? how will I know I'm winning if I can't compare bank accounts to tell?
Maybe we could make a scoreboard of good deeds and give extra ice cream to the virtuous.
My idea previously worked during GDI and WWII...
Oh, WW2? You mean the thing that built the industrial base that spawned neo-colonial exploitation to meet its raw materials needs and consequently absolutely ruined the future of the world?
Awesome, let's do it again and see how it works now that there are many more greedy people and many less places to reduce to rentier resource-states.
--
Only 3.5M net jobs for the past 8 years, 0.3% annual, under evildoers Greenspan, Bush and Bernanke.
And how many Americans got rich and made billions during the same period, many of them Bankrupters and Fraudsters?
What can born-and-bred American dopes do about the evil govt of the Unites States of America whose whole focus has been pushing more and more and more debt on the current and future population?
Is there is any doubt about the evil nature of the govt in America?
Jas
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins,
I do not mean to be disrespectable, however, you do not appear to offer a solution...
U6 = 13.5%, up 0.9% Table A-12. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
I do not mean to be disrespectable, however, you do not appear to offer a solution...
Anonymous | 01.09.09 - 8:43 am | #
One does not need to offer their own solution, in order to validly criticize the solutions offered by others.
We should all go to college for the rest of our lives and discuss how many angels could dance on the head of a pin.
I thought we were already doing this? I was having a conversation this morning regarding the naivete amongst 16th graders entering the real world.
Anonymous(Unrated) writes:
No disrespect, however, how does a nation run two wars for 7 years by a fiscally bankrupt society?
Look at where you are talking from!
LOOK AT WHERE YOU ARE STANDING.
You are having a heartfelt argument planning for the WPA to fend off social unrest during the Second Great Depression.
So that is how you run two wars and unlimited sweet creamy butter for the kids at home too. Fraud. And the answer to that fraud is, just guessing, probably not more fraud to conceal the effects of the previous swindling.
Eric,
wouldn't you say that whatever policy that we could select has problems...Isn't it better to start planning now as opposed to being forced to come up with a half-ass solution on the fly with possibly more unintended consequences...
jmho
Wow, especially given that it's an anti-regulation state, Texas has its head on straight about home equity loans
Amongst much more:
The total of all mortgage debt (not just the home equity loan) cannot exceed 80% of the fair market value of the home.
Lenders are prohibited from charging fees and costs (other than interest) which exceed 3% of the
principal amount of the loan
Not later than the day prior to closing, the borrower must receive a final itemized disclosure of the actual fees, points, interest, costs, and charges that will be charged.
wouldn't you say that whatever policy that we could select has problems..
Anonymous | 01.09.09 - 8:49 am | #
I might say that.
That doesn't change my point.... it's not a logically valid for you to dismiss B-R just because he isn't offering a constructive solution.
--
"And the country where everybody is so well educated AND understands something besides their own situation (if that) is WHERE?"
bobn,
Why is that important when we are talking here about the American economy and American culture/system that underlies it?
I only compare Americans with the Americans in the past. Today's Americans are far more doped, undisciplined and immoral, compared with the past. The greatest rise in immorality has been at the very top. Era of the Evildoers, as the top economic and political leaders, is a recent phenomenon. There were few evildoers in the past but now evildoers are the norm.
Jas
This from the commissioner's statement on unemployment
"
The number of persons working part time who would have
preferred full-time employment also continued to increase in
December, rising to 8.0 million. Over the last 12 months, the
number of such workers has grown by 3.4 million"
Anonymous(Unrated) writes:
Isn't it better to start planning now as opposed to being forced to come up with a half-ass solution on the fly with possibly more unintended consequences...
Are you a policy figure asking for a serious proposal? If not, I have to say, you are basically asking me to submit something for your approval and then it will be inadequately detailed, or pie-in-the-sky, or unworkable. Not like your plan, which is sporty and nice, as you are both its parent and judge.
If you do want a policy proposal, contact me through a comment in my blog and I will work with you through developing a policy solution that matches the scope of your policy theatre and resources.
especially given that it's an anti-regulation state, Texas has its head on straight about home equity loans
Because so many of its earliest settlers were debtors on the lam, the only thing TX has historically hated more than regulation is out-of-state banks. Probably the most generous bankruptcy exemptions in the nation.
But of course, state lending laws don't apply to national banks, even if they only have one branch...
I was chased out of my bldg 'cause Miami-Dade CC bought it. Moved right next door, more space, much nicer bldg, only a tad more. Should have offered even less I guess. 3 offices on my floor vacant.
Was someone abusing my good name last nite while I was driving up to the Space Coast?
Oil bust in Denver (80's)left so much empty space that we called Downtown the Canyon. I hear it took almost 2 decades to fill it up and start a new skyscraper a while back.
Maybe CR can hike the new canyons coming. Love the picks I am in the flat lands.
@Broward
The DeSade play was interesting & disturbing because it asked you to compare the French Revolution to today's U.S.
I think quite a bit about that parallel. It took 50 years, but it all sort of went on a glidepath after John Law.
The classic White book -
404 Not Found
shows you where they went with that concept after failing to monetize the debt, seizing church lands and using them to back assignats.
Please don't confuse Austin with Texas. It is a little California.
It is a shame we now have home equity loans. Most home owners are not smart enough to use home equity. The home should be a home period. Buy early, pay off by time you retire. I see these 60 year olds coming to hill country wanting 20 year loans to buy their weekend ranchette. It's nuts. Quit taking on debt.
Interesting Times writes:
PCA - I dropped $20 into the blanket of a man sleeping on a building's heat exhaust tongiht. It is easily the coldest night of this winter. The man didn't wake up.
I have on many occasions taken a person from the street into a near by pizza place or McD to feed them and listen to their stories. Then go home and cry my eyes out.
My wife doesn't understand.... but there is a survior's guilt to success.
Interesting Times | 01.09.09 - 1:04 am | #
no interesting times,the peoples who are well fed will never understand it.A physically well person becomes invalid due to economic problems or a person who has real difficult physical problems:both cant stand chance to survive.
I stay in india and everyday i see many old folks who were kicked out of their homes bytheir children.Most of times i give them money possible ti have a light dinner.I cant do much becoz i am myself poor.
This is when hindu philosophy helps me.A human/animal got his fate.It is never more true in india.
good night
@ bobn - 8:39 am
Bobn, the world has had enough of neocon bigotry, hatred, lies and mass murder. Neocon media hacks, financial scammers, traitors, lobbyists, spies and academic liars have managed to bring misery to millions in the US and throughout the world. Israel and its power base in the US have passed the point of no return. No amount of lying, doublespeak or corruption can restore the absolute domination they once had over the public mind. It is time to jump ship, Bobn, and be pragmatic about your survival. Overcoming Zionism is a challenge to most indoctrination victims, but it is possible. Just follow the path of some righteous Israelis like Gilad Atzmon. People like him are the ultimate realists, you can definitely learn something from them.
Living on Borrowed Time in a Stolen Land
By Gilad Atzmon
Living on Borrowed Time in a Stolen Land
: Information Clearing House - ICH
-
I agree with CR that CRE was not overbuilt to the extent residential was,however extreeml optomistic rental growth projections combined with 6% cap rates and interest only loans which come due in 3,5 or 7 years will result in a huge problem for regional banks. Regionals are in big trouble.
Why does the majority elect such representatives ???
ppk | 01.09.09 - 1:23 am | #
Because more people watch American Idol than the Presidential debates? Perhaps it is that Guns, Gods and Gays thing that has been so effectively used to distract people. We would be so much better if people focused more finding salvation here on earth rather than in some after life.
Makes you wonder- the least religious societies seem to have the greatest social justice?
bobn writes:
Ghost of F. D. Roosevelt(Unrated) writes:
Zionist savagery, and American connivance must stop.
Ghost of F. D. Roosevelt | Homepage | 01.09.09 - 8:27 am | #
Let me fix that for you:
Islamist savagery and Saudi/Syrian/Iranian/Pakistanian connivance must stop.
See here for more information.
bobn | Homepage | 01.09.09 - 8:39 am |
bobn- and your point is ??? that as long as they do it it is ok? How about all their connivance should stop - starting with those who consider themselves most civilized. BTW if they don't then how do they consider themselves most civilized?
"Religion is the sigh of the oppressed creature, the heart of a heartless world, just as it is the spirit of a spiritless situation. It is the opium of the people."
-Karl Marx (1843)
I for one did not expect Austin to have such a high vac rate. Texas as a whole seems to be doing well in terms of econ growth (rel to nation of course)
DD
aapl implosion watch. print's 8 handle?
swoosh all the way to 70
if the parents can't buy a new car, their not going to buy juniormiss a mac@3x cost of a pc
I am sure that this will be one of the last comments on this thread, However...
IIRC, ever since the end of WWII, the Govt has assumed the debt of individuals(GI Bill)...
Over the last 50+ years, individuals have had their personal wealth increased at the expense of the govt.(US tax payers as a group)...
I may be wrong here, however, this wealth transferred created America's middle class...
Now that very same middle class has been in the process of being eliminated...
Is this good or bad...It depends on where you sit...
It more equally distributed wealth from the upper class to those below...
Now, and for the last generation, the process was reversed from the middle class to the upper class...which is the normal, with regard to history...
Personally, a strong middle class provided stability to our political system...
It has been so long since we have seen a norm, I do not think any exists anymore...
jmho