Well that is one good thing for the Bush legacy. He has created the most part-time employment of all time during his term. And who wouldn't be proud of doing that.
I'm thinking that if Bush gets to be a saint, he could be the patron saint of part-time workers. I could make millions by minting Bush medals for all of the part-timers that would want to wear him around their necks.
I read CR plenty, but have almost never commented.
One "industry" that has been overlooked in all sorts of discussions has been the non-profit sector (NGOs for the Europeans). As with during any other economic downturn, donations are drying up, and these places hae to figure out what to do.
My family is heavily involved in Jewish non-profit (my parents and I are professionals in the field). I have been without work since Dec. 1. There are probably 1/4 the amount od open positions in the Jewish community than there were at this time a year ago, and half of those are either fundraising or part time clerical/admin work (I do education).
Where my mother works, the local Jewish Federation, they went the route of reducing hours and cutting positions in all of the non-fundraising departments. Other orgs are going to 4 day work weeks and asking people to work less.
Finally, the Jewish world was screwed particularly hard and deep by Madoff. There is a community center in FL that just closed its doors one morning, and my best job prospect is with one of the places that lost 80 mil. through him.
I think we will see a dramatic rise in the involuntary part time idea for both good and bad reasons - in some places, it will be forced on workers so the company ownership can continue to get their cut. In other places, it will be asked of workers in order to kep as many employed as possible.
The good news is that some places do have a good understanding of their employees essential needs. At the Jewish Federation I mentioned earlier, even those who are going from full time to part time are keeping their current level of benefits.
I'm thinking that if Bush gets to be a saint, he could be the patron saint of part-time workers. I could make millions by minting Bush medals for all of the part-timers that would want to wear him around their necks. Simian | 01.09.09 - 9:30 am | #
My only hope is that the Obama administration doesn't waste as much time blaming issues-of-the-day on the last administration as current one did. THAT was a goddam waste of time and energy.
I don't care what the level of leadership: After a few months of taking a leadership position, you own every problem that comes across your desk and don't waste my time telling who was at fault.
The end of recession is always marked previously by the peaking of unemployment or underemployment levels.
Essentially, the really bad, exponentially growing U numbers, is convincing bottom catchers that the end of the recession is in sight.
Even looking at CR's graph, someone can make the case that the spiking has to end soon (I don't believe it IMHO) just because it's so bad.
I worry to ask the obvious: What if it's different this time? (IDTT)
I know I will get slammed. I'm probably going to slam myself for saying IDTT -- but isn't this a historic collision of 3 category 5 storms? (Credit bubble, Housing bubble, Global Trade imbalance)
Why is it reasonable to expect the recession track the same pattern as previous ones?
What I don't understand is paying attention at all to the initial numbers put out. Only 540,000 job losses, better than expected. But October's 'better than expected' 320,000 was later revised to 423,000 and November's
'better than expected'533,000 later became 584,000. Why does anyone believe the December number is truly 'better than expected' and won't be revised upward to 640,000 or 'way worse than expected'?
Please contact me concerning a potential client--has has a property in Palm Beach, and he and his partner are splitting. He will be in FLA next week, and desperately needs counsel.
crispy: I am curious, how do they assign January unemployment numbers (when reported in February)? Does if fall under Bush, Obama, or do they pro-rata it?
At some point, the law of number does say that that all the jobs that needs to be lost has been lost (Since there's only a fixed # of jobs to start with, not infinity) and the unemployment numbers will peak then.
However, why will the blue recession shading end in the quarter that it peaked?
Didn't Japan go though a 19 year (and counting) depression?
Technically, the British Colonial Empire never recovered from it's collapse (it was the biggest empire at one point, with colonies spanning the globe).
Why is everyone so sure that there IS a rebound? Roman never rebounded, China's "Tang Dynasty" (The richest economy in the world at the time) didn't rebound.
Why is it guaranteed that USA will rebound from this?
Rick, extrapolating the rate of change in the revisions over the prior two months probably proves your point. On the surface, 650-700K seems like a very reasonable estimate.
In December, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers on pri-
vate nonfarm payrolls fell by 0.2 hour to 33.3 hours, seasonally adjusted--the lowest
level on record for the series, which began in 1964.
As people are losing their jobs, there is still less work for those who remain. Not surprising, but pessimistic going forward.
Sometimes I think that George Bush will be the great hero of the future socialist America -- because by presiding over the devolution of capitalism, he not only made socialism desirable, but inevitable.
An Obama administration will quickly be confronted by the need to provide those hundreds of billions of dollars to states and large municipalities. Their requests total nearly a trillion dollars and to think California or NYC would be allowed to fail is, well unthinkable. Municipal bonds then, selling at historically high ratios relative to U.S. Treasuries, offer attractive price appreciation potential, or at the very least a defensiveness with high carry that a 2½% 10-year Treasury cannot.
Just remember about today's market action: "The earlier you fall behind, the longer you have to catch up"
So far, today's script is tracking that of Dec 5 almost identically. Wicked bounce coming shortly? We've already got the downside half of an outside day in the bag, and I haven't even finished my bagel and coffee yet.
Yes, but we did not have so many part-timers, discouraged workers and illegal immigrants in 1982.
And people did not require credit to survive to the extent they do now. Today it is hard to survive without credit even if you are fairly frugal and have an average job.
"I would be interested to see the same graph but with the Y axis showing the numbers of part time workers expressed as a percentage of total workers.
Michael | 01.09.09 - 9:59 am | #"
Not sho what this "U6" shizzle izzle, but it's long been my predikshun that unemployment hits 9% by March or April. Sounds ridiculous, I know, but I sense some sort of employment capitulation.
he not only made socialism desirable, but inevitable. Bob Dobbs | Homepage | 01.09.09 - 9:52 am | #
Not so sure about that.
Ever growing government is arguably the primary cause of all our current troubles. Simply to sustain what we have would require massive tax increases on the backs of an already untenable consumer economic model (given that we've deficit spent to get where we are). Going full socialism would have us sending 2/3rd's of our checks to DC. I just don't see Americans swallowing that, nor the country having anywhere near the business initiative and dynamism it's had.
Regardless, there will be a monster struggle over the size of government and it's role in our society.
ok, I was expecting a huge rally here given the fudgefakery bls numbers are better than adp. so what gives?
does the market know these numbers are crap?
That's a startling graph in many ways. First, for it's incredibly rapid ascent. Second, for it's height already, and sure to go much higher. Third, for the relatively minor uptick during the last recession. And finally, for the little to no progress made during the supposed economic growth during the W years.
CR, one of the best graphs yet. Why isn't this on CNBC or on the front page of every newspaper?
I hope you are right, but the wave of consumer capitulation until now has pretty much ensured that we will reach that level in a few months. Unless obama drops 5-10k into every families mailbox, consumerism related jobs are going to take a further hit.
--
The amount of catastrophy and the emergency efforts the Gov would take, makes that seem unlikely to me.
ok, I was expecting a huge rally here given the fudgefakery bls numbers are better than adp. so what gives?
The market doesn't open for another 5 hours. Grab some popcorn, pull up a chair, and watch the pretty red and green flashes while the pre-market does its thing.
"My only hope is that the Obama administration doesn't waste as much time blaming issues-of-the-day on the last administration"
......My only hope is that the Obama VOTERS don't waste as much time blaming issues-of-the-day on the last administration (unless they add the words "AND CONGRESS").
BTW, I prefer the new term: "Marginally Attached To Labor Force"
Everyone's looking at employment numbers, when it's known that employment doesn't LEAD us out of a hole.
Something else must grow first, what can grow at this time?
If the economy continues to collapse like it is now, even green projects & innovations will start to die -- the inability to compete with cheap oil will kill these projects (although I believe we need them.)
If this is a race to the bottom for nations, we collectively are a LONG WAY from the bottom where nothing more can give (i.e. you got nothing to lose)
I would argue that the globe was close to that "nothing to lose bottom" at the end of WW2; alas I don't want such kind of bottom in future.
So the question is what is the floor? What can "put a floor" to all these racing to the bottom?
I hear employees at the grocery store and office supply store complaining to their fellow employees about their cut hours alot lately. I think one of the big results will be moving back home to live with their parents to cut back costs (although I'd rather be a bando living in a huge foreclosure). It is brutal out their for lower skilled workers. I tip heavily these days to try to help a little.
That's why Rob Dawg & I have been arguing that the average household size has bottomed and will climb from here, further depressing the housing market.
"That's why Rob Dawg & I have been arguing that the average household size has bottomed and will climb from here, further depressing the housing market.
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear)"
Right. I know this has been brought up before. Just another reason to emphasize it.
The concept of health insurance in itself is a bad idea. If you live in a developed country, you should not have to worry about decent healthcare (which can be quite cheap)and catastrophic illness coverage. The costliest part of real healthcare is hospitalization in the last few months of life.
If we destroyed healthcare lobbies and insurance companies, we could get better healthcare for less than half.
//How about if he just bough 5-10K of health insurance for every family?
Blackhalo | 01.09.09 - 10:11 am | #//
I really think the feds ought to focus where the wound appears worst - job creation and new business creation. The detoriation in the small business sector is frightening. But I'm certain, that with Obama's experience in the private sector, along with the top-notch industry leaders who volunteer for service in the CONgress, they'll solve this (snark off).
Want to spur job creation and growth? Then create a favorable environment for doing so at the lowest level - small biz. Trickle-up has a lot of merit.
As a serial entrepreneur who has had some measure of success, I'm speaking from experience when I say that the obstacles at the state and federal levels keep getting more absurd and larger. Mandates, ridiculous compliance regs that keep bureaucraps employed, and taxes at the pre-revenue stages are just a few of the obstacles that come to mind. You need to be deranged or ignorant of the obstacles to strike out on your own (I'm the former, btw) and build an organization where people can flourish, prosper, and provide for their families.
The government has never built anything of value without the private sector involved. The best it can do is remove the obstacles that it has erected and continue providing a safety net until those obstacles are gone. OK, now back to banging head against wall.
There's actually been a good volume of lending going thru the interbank market this week, and today is probably the best day in at least a year on that front. Money markets started to freeze up in August 2007, and were a good leading indicator of what was coming down the pipe. Lending spreads are still fairly elevated though, but at least the market is somewhat functional again.
Unemployment numbers typically peak AFTER a recession. If that trend holds true this time around, we have a ways to go for under-employment and unemployment.
blackhalo writes:
How about if he just bough 5-10K of health insurance for every family?
Blackhalo | 01.09.09 - 10:11 am
IMHO, this is what Obama and Congress need to focus on with laser-like intensity. Unemployment is really scary to many because of health insurance. Small businesses can't keep up with insurance payments.
Extend unemployment benefits, pass universal health care and stop trying to keep zombie banks staggering around looking for brain tissue to devour...
lucifer(Unrated) writes: I have a bad feeling that we will reach a real-time U6 of greater than 20% between April and July 09.
Me too, with a weight toward the front end of that range. Possibly into March. We'll see how big the corpse of the real economy is when it starts to fill up with decay gasses and bobs to the surface in a couple months. I'm interested in seeing the market dynamics of Obama's coronation before I make any solid guesses.
Jeeminy......all this hand-wringing, ideas to stimulate, changes "you'd" make, all these "what-ifs".....
......give it a break. What did you expect would happen?
This is what happens when someone sits down at a poker table, loses all his cash, goes to the ATM, draws out a couple hundred, LOSES THAT AS WELL, goes BACK to the ATM, uses another card - another $200 - another bad streak. Next come the markers (casino credit) and then the "time to pay up or we will relocate your kneecaps to your chin".
Think of this as "kneecap-relocation time". There is no magic fairy dust fix.
If we destroyed healthcare lobbies and insurance companies, we could get better healthcare for less than half. lucifer | 01.09.09 - 10:17 am | #
I'd love to see the AMA go away, and a ban on lobbying by recipients of Federal money, but insurance is just business and I would much prefer a bid process buy competing interests than the Gov to do it.
Carry over from midnight thread...two back! Relevant for this thread...
Our industrial policy should be directed towards things that America needs and don't mean rifles and tanks...
If our technological productive efficiencies produces increasing # of unemployed people, then the govt should employ these people perform services that are beneficial to the nation as a whole---Clean up the cities, national parks, child care, health services and etc...
I am no freaking bureaucrat...There are a lot of needs that have been ignored...If we are going to pay unemployed people, then we might as get something useful out of them...plus, the individuals will gain personal value/worth for accomplishing something...
Anonymous | 01.09.09 - 8:11 am | #
saint of part-time workers. I could make millions by minting Bush medals for all of the part-timers that would want to wear him around their necks.
Simian
I believe those used to be called millstones and were tied around necks to keep people in one place.
Insurance and pharma lobbyists have had many, many opportunities to propose a public/private partnership to cut costs. Instead they used the time to protect their excessive rentier profits. They lost their chance. SIngle payer time.
Nah, after the millstone tieing, comes the tossing in the water. . .and then you're underwater!!! Thanks kurty, will email. CR wasn't a waste of working time!!!
anon-totally agree....cleaning up the streets would keep everybody employed in Calif...Natl parks should be busier going forward as they are close by, cheap to get to and offer some of the beautiful sights in the world...
Volker...I see you got up on the god damn wrong side of the bed.
At 65 have never taken a dime from the US goverment...Own my own company, and probably been outside the box for more than 40 years since I have always been self employed...And you...Where did your anger come from?
The real bottom will appear regardless of all the stimulus money wasted. Income, property values, real wage, consumer demand based on need not wants, dynamics will prevail. A Faux floor will only slow the way down. Unemployment will get much worse as the non recorded is huge compared to the past. Anybody remember the Super Collider in Texas?
As a former insurance broker, only 60% of insurance premiums are allocated to claims...The remaining 40% is assigned to costs (primarily labor) and profit...IIRC, SS has a cost rate below 5%...
My only hope is that the Obama VOTERS don't waste as much time blaming issues-of-the-day on the last administration (unless they add the words "AND CONGRESS").
Black Star Ranch | 01.09.09 - 10:11 am | #
Yes, 6 years of a Republican congressional majority followed by 2 years of filibustering every single progressive piece of legislation the Dems tried to pass.
Also:
The next person to give "one person digging a hole and a second filling it in" as if it were a real example of WPA type policy will get a punch in the balls, followed by your home address given to Conjure Bag.
"At 65 have never taken a dime from the US goverment...Own my own company, and probably been outside the box for more than 40 years since I have always been self employed"
Most employees think employers own them like their parents. They don't get it We just want to use their talent not adopted them. Being your own boss real shows a different picture and total responsibility for your actions.
....If we're to start re: FedGov pandering and giveaways, we may as well start with YOUR GOOD FRIEND L. B Johnson, a democrat that couldn't find a spending program he didn't like or not sign off on....Need I go further back or forward?....
I already told you, I think you are utterly dishonest. But what about what I said was wrong?
Gary | 01.09.09 - 10:37 am | # I think the GOP owns most but not all of the responsibility for this. The Dems in congress have hardly covered themselves in glory here.
Gary, you're going to get everything you deserve soon so don't get your panties in a bunch. Free everything - for everyone! All those things you heard about at "Camp Entitlement" - they're true and they're coming your way! Relax, put your feet up - it'll all be taken care as soon as the last verse of Koombaya is sung. Note to self: Remove McCain/Palin bumper sticker from truck before going to Gary's for dinner.
There will be no recovery in the traditional sense. It's lonely being the sole superpower (and very expensive). We've spent ourselves away.
The only problem I really see with the situation is how a population raised on the expectations and pressures of American exceptionalism will handle the fact that we are indeed just like everyone else.
Rant: While I was over at a friend's house, I was forced to watch the Rachel Maddow show. First, she has to realize she's not Jon Stewart or Stephen Colbert. But more importantly, I didn't learn anything about the Obama stimulus plan or his appointees other than that it's not what GWB would have done.
I'm dreading 2010, when I'll be listening to comparisons to HYPOTHETICAL Bush policies.
I'd rather talk about, you know, things that happened WITHIN MY LIFETIME.
And if we're talking about the current shitstorm, the three most culpable figures are Reagan, Bush the Lesser, and Alan Greenspan.
In our dystopic near future, will Reagan's corpse be exhumed and publicly desecrated to appease the angry gods? Once Bush II and Greenspan have fled for paraguay and beyond the reach of justice.
Anonymous writes:
Supply siders begin preaching gloom/doom
The job_cut table is very misleading. While the total might be 235k. It is not all US jobs or US employment...more shallow reporting from the WSJ - then again I suspect they are welcoming O's big spending program, no?
This article by the BBC has a good map of Europe showing the affected countries, and a nice pie chart that shows the EU gas suppliers. Once the gas starts moving again it will take three days to get the entire system back online.
EU gas monitors arrive in Ukraine
Hundreds of thousands of homes in Europe remain without heating amid plunging temperatures, following a row over gas between Russia and Ukraine.
But Russia says shipments will resume when Russian, Ukrainian and EU monitors start work, possibly later in the day.
It may still take several days for gas to reach some areas, however.
"It will take at least three days," to get the whole system functioning again, EU energy spokesman Ferran Terradellas said.
From Yesterday:Headline number on the jobs report my be way under as part time numbers soar. U9 should explode until ch7 starts.
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich | 01.08.09 - 10:57 pm
You know, it's interesting the perspectives that get tossed about. People talk about how much savings could be achieved by eliminating insurance companies, for example. Well, take that argument to it's natural end and we can argue that almost any industry can be streamlined by firing everyone and handing the business over to the government.
"I'd rather talk about, you know, things that happened WITHIN MY LIFETIME."
Gary....
THAT'S what I was doing also(in my lifetime). Had I known YOUTH was also a consideration, I wouldn't be typing this. EVERYONE in Washington is to blame with very few exceptions. I imagine we will always disagree and quite honestly, I don't have enough time left on this earth (nor energy) to spend it trying to redirect your "flights to fantasy". Many mistakes have been made by our elected officials on BOTH sides of the aisle. Us older guys tend to remember where (WE think) they started. Our memories tend to go back further than the 1980s
At 65 have never taken a dime from the US goverment...Own my own company, and probably been outside the box for more than 40 years since I have always been self employed...And you...Where did your anger come from?
AP'Shadow | 01.09.09 - 10:32 am | #
No one has never taken a dime from the government. You never used infrastructure? No patent law? Hired employees who benefited from public education? Benefited from the rule of law? Utilized technologies or science that arose out of NASA, NIH, or the like?
I doubt it. There is a lot to complain about, but there is a reason there are a lot of "self made men and women" in the USA.
I do not believe 12% unemployment. At the rate families would be living on the street and soup kitchen lines would be forming. Don't see them.
Especially as there is not social services net to speak of. Yes, I know the hard time stories. No, I think it is just people getting a hardon in antcipation of the pain they so dearly love to witness.
We ALL own this mess. Especially the citizens who VOTE. History shows that people love and keep in power those elected officials who bring home the bacon for their constituency.
If a politician stands on that podium and says to the people.."we are broke, services will be cut back, taxes will be increased and entitlements must be reevaluated" he would be laughed at and lose the election.
I am curious about illegal immigration unemployment. It seems that here is SoCal that the lots of Hdepot are getting to resemble soccer stadiums --that is there are a lot of people hanging out "all day" with the game not starting.
Just curious how and if anyone tracks these numbers and the effect on the economy or is every public official's head in the sand?
Geithner is also considering creating a new bureau within the Treasury to manage the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, in an attempt to improve the program's operations and oversight.
I think I qualify as an 'older guy,' and, yes, while LBJ's budgeting process wasn't the best for the long term, the shakeouts of the 1970s pretty much dissolved that problem.
The massive deficit spending under Reagan is really the start of the current problem, followed in turn by Bush, Clinton and Bush. However, there's no doubt in my mind that the current Republican administration, supported by a Republican dominated Congress, went off the charts with wasteful spending and, very likely, destroyed the economy of the U.S. for the forseeable future.
It is also true that Republicans in the Senate, in the minority for the past two years, did threaten to filibuster every piece of legislation proposed by the 50-49-1 Democratic majority unless that legislation was amended to provide more government largesse to the wealthiest in this county.
So I do agree with Gary. I just try not to get so emotional about it. It's not good for the blood pressure for us older guys.
But if and when it comes to class warfare in the U.S., I certainly know which side I'll be on.
You said it, BSR. The problems we're facing are the accumulation of nearly 100 years of bad decisions, so pinning it on any one administration and/or Congress is pure partisan folly. They're all at fault.
That said, the Bush administration and associated Congressional bodies floored the gas pedal towards our inevitable trip off the cliff.
"No one has never taken a dime from the government. You never used infrastructure? No patent law? Hired employees who benefited from public education? Benefited from the rule of law? Utilized technologies or science that arose out of NASA, NIH, or the like?
I doubt it. There is a lot to complain about, but there is a reason there are a lot of "self made men and women" in the USA."
Red Pill ---
Thank you, exactly, right on, yippeeee...
I hear so much pro-business and own-your-own claptrap that it makes me sick sometimes...
Not everyone can own a business, some people have to be employees and if they're not protected in some way, everyone loses.
I for one, don't really have the American dream of owning my own business. Most of the "business owners" I know personally are not only assholes...but their sucking on the government money tit so much it's hard to stomach the way they continually rail against it.
heavily used by competitors-former entities such as bunny ranch, mustang ranch, old bridge ranch etc so branding would lead to immediate success depending on how many quality ladies you sign up....
The single payer debate is rather pointless if we can't figure out what "health care" is. A reason that health insurance moved from casualty care to maintenance is that the insurers knew they could pass the costs to the employers, who could then pass the costs to the middle class or the government.
Already we are seeing moves from brand names to generics, increases in hospice care, etc. It's going to be interesting to see what is considered "discretionary."
"to think California or NYC would be allowed to fail is, well unthinkable. "
Not unthinkable at all. When NYC was near insolvency in the 70s, Cheney and Rumsfeld, advisors to Prez Ford, encouraged Ford to let the city fail. After initially accepting their view, in the end, Ford overruled them, and advanced loans to the city under the guidance of Felix Rohatyn, that allowed the city to go forward.
In the event, all the loans were paid back to the Feds.
So, I guess we agree...Did I hear somewhere, the mis-allocations of investments...Gee, I guess that is what the market is doing...NOT...
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) writes:
You know, it's interesting the perspectives that get tossed about. People talk about how much savings could be achieved by eliminating insurance companies, for example. Well, take that argument to it's natural end and we can argue that almost any industry can be streamlined by firing everyone and handing the business over to the government.
Many of the part-time workers of today were part-time working at withdrawing home equity. Jas Jain | Homepage | 01.09.09 - 11:02 am | # HA! That is actually funny. Nothing Jas has ever written has made me laugh in that way before....
The whole Madoff thing wade me sick because there were and are so many innocent victims.
We have always given generously. I will see if we can up it a bit this year.
While I am not Jewish, I do go to our best friends Shabbat (on Friday nights). Since going for, oh my, almost 8 years now I appreciate the value of family and faith. Last year on my birthday, which happened on a Friday I was presented with a wonderfull cookbook called Aromas of Aleppo.
gary has a point based solely on the number of years (over the last 25) of who has been in charge. By that number alone the GOP does, in fact own it, pretty heavily IMO. That's not to say that there is not and has not been complicity on the other side.
The dem. leadership has been too lazy and stupid to have owned this outright.....but they found a willing "partner" in the GOP. The single biggest act however lies in the Clinton Era....the Rubin shit. But was it cause and effect or the other way around? You be the judge.
I agree that Rubin is a villain in all of this. But you can't forget that Clinton (who I was not a fan of and did not vote for) also had Newt Gingrich and Alan Greenspan as his work partners. not exactly a free reign for that Democratic president.
So, I guess we agree...Did I hear somewhere, the mis-allocations of investments...Gee, I guess that is what the market is doing...NOT... Anonymous | 01.09.09 - 11:03 am | #
Misallocation based upon politically driven incentives, generally. Follow the money.
With regard to social services, what do you think ghat local and state govt's cuts first, if not social services...The Fed govt. is the only govt that can solve this problem...Do not count on Charities, because there funding is dropping like a stone...
At some point, the law of number does say that that all the jobs that needs to be lost has been lost (Since there's only a fixed # of jobs to start with, not infinity) and the unemployment numbers will peak then.
However, why will the blue recession shading end in the quarter that it peaked?
Didn't Japan go though a 19 year (and counting) depression?
Technically, the British Colonial Empire never recovered from it's collapse (it was the biggest empire at one point, with colonies spanning the globe).
Why is everyone so sure that there IS a rebound? Roman never rebounded, China's "Tang Dynasty" (The richest economy in the world at the time) didn't rebound.
Why is it guaranteed that USA will rebound from this?
hc | 01.09.09 - 9:49 am | #
The GOP owns this fucking mess. Gary | 01.09.09 - 10:33 am | #
I have yet to see a convincing case made for Democratic causality. Although, I willing to entertain the possiblitly.
Cox, Paulson and Greenspan sure seem to own and awful lot of the responsibility, along with the rubber stamp Republican congress of the bubble. GOP diehards sure seem eager point figers...
The Pres-elect is banging the drum on the idea of creating 3 million jobs. Looking at the Dept of Labor stats, since the start of the recession in December 2007 the number of unemployed persons has grown by 3.6 million, and the unemployment rate has risen by 2.3 percentage points. IF the real unemployment hits 15% over the next 12 mo, creating 3 million jobs might not be the silver bullet they are touting it to be. Sounds like 6 million in job creation might be a better target.
the homeless lines are always long in san fran. it is a homeless mecca,and its january...they always swarm to bay area in winter for warmer temps and free food...I travel all over the country and i see the migration of homeless to those areas every winter
rich writes: \tThank you, Gooch. Very interesting and articulate post. Sorry for the problems in your industry. rich | 01.09.09 - 10:48 am | # ----- Seconded.
I have friends and acquaintances who work in the NGO/Non-Profit** world, and they are in similar situations like Gooch. They have funding through this FY and maybe someway through the following FY, but after that period, it is really a crapshoot as to if they will see an '11 FY. As time goes on, that odds keep stacking up against them...
** - Gotta love America with its "Non-Profit" wording which is utter garbage. I guess the law makers wants to sanitize the NGO moniker for our protection.
Jas, not sure if you have seen this piece regarding nominal gdp per capita vs. m3 growth and the race to the bottom for all global currencies via inflation. Would you care to comment on this if you have the time as I value your analysis and contrarian thoughts and honest debate using just fact?
Thanks Hard Truths | The Big Picture
gooch - yep, the non-profits are getting hit hard and in some instances, the non-profits (think medical) are having to compete against for-profits and are getting their clocks cleaned. hang in there.
After glancing at the past several threads, it occurs to me that Broward and Lucifer would be a hell of a double-date combo.
Lawyerliz - contact me. I've got a friend who's looking for some cheap waterfront property with gators and snakes. He just loves losing money.
that why I said it was a single act......you have to have complicity and that IMO was the key to all of this. It wasn't coincidence that a few short year's after that occurred that the system began having it's ah "problems".
I'd just like to say for the record, that the Russians shutting off gas is completely crazy.
All of my extended family lives in Slovakia and we're in the shit. Hard freeze about to happen as well - we have cold winters. And I don't even want to think about Romania...the poverty and economic weakness there is terrible.
"I for one, don't really have the American dream of owning my own business. Most of the "business owners" I know personally are not only assholes...but their sucking on the government money tit so much it's hard to stomach the way they continually rail against it."
You don't need to be in business. Years of being in business has taught some of us old timers that the entitlement changed in the 90's. Minimum wage protects (BS) the worker. What law protects the employer with a minimum work output? Work responsibility. Showing up on time, Cell phone abuse, bar room flu days, personal computer use on company time, etc. Many like me who are in business may have never had a government contract (nor did I ever want one) excepted unemployment, grant, etc. On the other hand we produced jobs, paid untold taxes, many flat extortion. For people like us as in racing business is competition. In racing second place is first loser. Business is the ultimate test of skills and balls to survive and prosper. I just get tired of many who think all businesses are rich and the worker is pissed on. Try business and it will teach you a brutal lessons and bam! before you know it your a conservative. It did it to me. Enjoy your job and sleep at night.
what was implemented over 8 years ago by him that enabled the current crisis?
Despite the name, the real mastermind behind Gramm-Leach-Bliley was Rubin, as the merger of Citi and Travelers depended on the ability to create the "financial holding company." And strangely, Greenspan was actually against many of the provisions of GLBA, especially the balkanized regulatory structure. Ya think Citi rewarded Rubin for his efforts?
Here's two interesting points about today's employment data, via Dean Baker's Jobs Byte:
With the length of the average workweek getting shorter, the decline in hours worked has been even more rapid than the drop in employment. From September to December, the index of hours worked for production workers fell at a 9.4 percent annual rate. This rate of decline in hours would be equivalent to losing 12.8 million jobs over the course of a year, if the length of the workweek was constant.
. . .
Remarkably, employment among older workers is continuing to increase even through this downturn. Employment among workers over age 55 rose by 233,000 since September. On the other side, employment for workers aged 35-44 fell by 559,000 or 1.7 percent, while employment for workers aged 25-34 fell by 488,000 or 1.6 percent.
So early Boomers are making out like bandits after cashing out on their bubble inflated residence and cutting hours for younger workers. Brilliant!
Immigration should [ed.] go up exponentially. There are lots of bills to pay in the coming years.
Barley | 01.09.09 - 11:15 am
I'm inclined to agree with this point in part because the social welfare system in this country does depend on an increasing number of younger workers and we have the opposite of that today.
BTW, I still think the U.S. is a great country and that I've been privileged to live here even though I'm not wealthy or otherwise a success story in the classic economic sense.
I received a fine education from a couple of stellar universities and have had a modicum of freedom allowed to me to pursue 'happiness' as I saw it. The fact that I chose to move to this 'god forsaken desert' some 25 years ago was my choice, as was all that followed. No one else has been responsible for my choices, but I reserve the right to have and to change my opinions concerning who has responsibility for what happens on the national level.
Obama is inheriting a lose-lose situation, nationally and internationally, but he will own it soon enough.
the homeless lines are always long in san fran. it is a homeless mecca,and its january...they always swarm to bay area in winter for warmer temps and free food...I travel all over the country and i see the migration of homeless to those areas every winter
Barakuda | 01.09.09 - 11:15 am
I talked to a Vietnam vet the other day who was born and raised in SF before going to Vietnam. He said the homeless problem in SF wasn't there before he left, but it was when he returned in 1973. There is a lot of migration that is true. I think FL gets a significant influx in the winter as well.
The real bottom will appear regardless of all the stimulus money wasted. Income, property values, real wage, consumer demand based on need not wants, dynamics will prevail. A Faux floor will only slow the way down. Unemployment will get much worse as the non recorded is huge compared to the past. Anybody remember the Super Collider in Texas?
joe after the 12 pack
I agree with you about the bottom. This sounds really familiar, though. Did you post on this about a year ago? Wondering.
"I have yet to see a convincing case made for Democratic causality. Although, I willing to entertain the possiblitly."
Clinton pushed deregulation and every one own a house. First insane bubble Dot Com from his administrations lack of discipline. Follow hot fingers Henry Cisnerous HUD to Country wide. Start there, plenty to go around
"destroyed the economy of the U.S. for the forseeable future."
they would have needed to be proactive in regards to demographic challenges in any case. instead, they passed the donut bill and doubled the natl debt without significantly expanding coverage, and the rest is history.
Tim in Cali(Unrated) writes: I am curious about illegal immigration unemployment. It seems that here is SoCal that the lots of Hdepot are getting to resemble soccer stadiums --that is there are a lot of people hanging out "all day" with the game not starting.
Just curious how and if anyone tracks these numbers and the effect on the economy or is every public official's head in the sand? \t Tim in Cali | \t \t \t \t01.09.09 - 10:58 am | #Not that I'm aware. But the crowds of Latino casual labor outside the lumber yard in my neighborhood have started to grow again, after falling off in the early part of the year. I attributed the fall-off to the return of some illegals to Mexico. I attribute this rise to resident off-season pickers who can't find work, or "legal" low-end workers who've been cut back in the restaurant and service trades. I live in an ag area.
Here is an update on the emerging silver squeeze. As you may know, I am watching the silver bullion ETF (SLV) closely.
Monday, an all-time record 3.0 million shares of SLV traded. Yesterday, 2.4 million shares trade, third most in history.
Today, as I write, volume is at 3.0 million and may end the day at 4.0 million. The shares have traded at an average premium of 2.4% over NAV over the last nine sessions. This has never happened before.
Roubini is now predicting that unemployment will peak at 9% in 2010, yet in the same breath saying that GDP will decline by 5% over 2 years. He predicts consumer prices will drop by only 2% in 2009. I find this to be wildly optimistic somehow.
Elvis(Unrated) writes: \tI hear employees at the grocery store and office supply store complaining to their fellow employees about their cut hours alot lately. I think one of the big results will be moving back home to live with their parents to cut back costs (although I'd rather be a bando living in a huge foreclosure). It is brutal out their for lower skilled workers. I tip heavily these days to try to help a little. Elvis | 01.09.09 - 10:12 am | #
Anecdotal: heard something of that last night. Friend of my wife owns a couple of businesses (jewelry store, laundromat) and lives on some acreage up in the hills with a couple of houses. One of her children, and his family, is moving back in with her, and the other is asking about it.
joe after the 12 pack.
See Roland Arnall and Ameriquest...apppointed ambassador by Bush on the day his mortgage company was fined in excess of 300 million for predatory lending practices. Arnall was also Bush's largest campaign contributor.
See also Bush's "American Dream" legislation of 2003 to see the real liftoff of the housing bubble.
CHINA'S central bank said yesterday that it plans to implement a pilot program that would settle overseas trade with the Chinese currency instead of the US dollar.
The People's Bank of China will expand financial cooperation with overseas economies and "properly deal with the global financial crisis," the central bank said.
I agree with you about the bottom. This sounds really familiar, though. Did you post on this about a year ago? Wondering.
Comrade Yossarian | 01.09.09 - 11:27 am | #
No I have been reading and learning for a couple of years. Just started posting recently.
I can't help but think that was the plan all along. Get massively over-leveraged on the backs of all those "bad consumer's" who didn't pay there mortgages and then sit back and wait for help to arrive-any sane person that had one ounce of business sense could see that this was a problem of deregulation way before it actually occurred. Whatever your opinion is it's pretty clear to me that Rubin's deals have had a massive effect of causing and exacerbating the real issue(s) here. But I also believe that the system would have found another way to do it......notwithstanding Rubin and then Glass-Steagel.
fried writes:
joe after the 12 pack.
See Roland Arnall and Ameriquest...apppointed ambassador by Bush on the day his mortgage company was fined in excess of 300 million for predatory lending practices. Arnall was also Bush's largest campaign contributor.
See also Bush's "American Dream" legislation of 2003 to see the real liftoff of the housing bubble.
fried | 01.09.09 - 11:34 am | #
No need, There is plenty on both sides as far as I am concerned. Just wait for the people to smarten up enough to get mad and quit voting for either party. We need politicians that represent "We the people" first.
Why don't you run through the formulas he posted on his blog and show where the numbers don't add up? He posted a simple, back of the envelope calc, should be no problem, it's easy.
alot of accumulation going on over there. It's not trading with it's "normal" pattern.
I, in fact, began buying more earlier this week. IMO it's gonna go.......the disconnect between it and physical is not going to stay that way. GLD is a tool of the hedgies so I think it will have it's day however there is still a massive amount of delevering to come and it seems more effected by that than SLV.
rich writes:
Monday, an all-time record 3.0 million shares of SLV traded. Yesterday, 2.4 million shares trade, third most in history. . . Today, as I write, volume is at 3.0 million and may end the day at 4.0 million.
Your volumes are inaccurate. Volume for yesterday was 9.0 mil, Monday 6.4 mil., all time high daily volume for SLV 31.6 mil on 3/20/08.
Your SLW had a nice rally last month. 6.98 is written all over it. Are you taking principal off and accumulating profit-only shares?
"as a former smart-ass banker/trader I am too respectful of the enormous ability of the market to game any system that can be put into place. Regulators simply cannot outplay the market, and when too much liquidity leads to an increase in risk appetite, the financial system will find a way to take on more risk that might be healthy. "
Even those who own homes free and clear will find that, in a frozen property market, they can not move to where the jobs are, or to a more suitable property with some self-sufficiency potential. If they lose their jobs, they may lose their homes through being unable to pay the sky-rocketing property taxes that municipalities will introduce in a desperate attempt to fill the gaping holes in their own budgets. This is why we suggest that people generally rent rather than own (unless they own a homestead free and clear). Renting amounts to paying someone else a fee to take the property price risk for you, and that is a very good bet under today's circumstances. Rents will fall a long way in a deflation, and although landlord default is always a possibility (perhaps meaning more than one move), that risk is preferable to losing the bulk of one's assets in a property price collapse.
SL
ecoshift(Unrated) writes: \t"a new meat is gracing the British table: squirrel" In a Cold Economy, Fancy Food Is Hot - NY Times 07squirrel. \t ecoshift | \t \t \tHomepage | \t01.09.09 - 11:37 am | # ecoshift | Homepage | 01.09.09 - 11:37 am | #
It's pretty good when fried. Tastes like chicken.....really
"Joe after 12 pack - thanks for articulating the entrepreneur's sentiment so well.
Hugh Jass | 01.09.09 - 11:28 am |"
I'll agree with the sentiment. And It adds to my point that not everyone can or should be an entrepreneur/business owner. Too many idiots take advantage of all the "incentives" (tax and other) and drive their local economies and the economy in general into the ground.
Now that the era of free money is quickly coming to a close...all these quasi-business are going to go BK having thrown plenty of good capital into a deep deep hole.
I will disagree, however, that once you're owned and operated your own business, you can stand on a pedestal and preach to everyone how hard it was and how it made you better (and thus conservative) than everyone else...it was your choice to start a biz.
In terms of mortgages, even those that seemed conservative in recent years were not. In the latter stages of a credit bubble, even a deposit of over 50% and a monthly payment that could be covered by one of two salaries is a recipe for deep trouble. We are looking at a collapse of property prices and a huge rise in unemployment, which will combine to cause an unprecedented amount of negative equity, defaults and foreclosure, and, thanks to leverage, the resulting loses will snowball, further undercutting the supposed value of financial assets. The 'conservative' mortgagees are mostly just as trapped as those who over-extended themselves further.
SL
"I will also add that you can write all the regulations you want.....until you actually enforce them they mean very little."
I'll go further. ALL regulatory agencies become owned by the industry regulated. The regulators thus become complicit in cartelizing and protecting the regulated.
"Factoring in discouraged workers, unemployment is closer to 9.4%," said Peter Morici, an economist at the University of Maryland. "Add workers in part-time positions that cannot find full time employment and the hidden unemployment rate is 14.5%."
To come up with his $2 Trillion number, Krugman (PBUH) useth Congressional Budget Office projections --politicized data which is worth even less than the backs of the envelopes they're written on. And there are no formulas there in Krugman's blog post. What formulas?
As a famous economist once said, "Let's assume a can opener."
Motley Fops Part 2
Bubblevision(Bloomberg) grows a spine for this news cycle and publishes an article that should be broadcasted every day for the next quarter.
Instead I am sure it will fade away, although at least when reported on the station this morning it elicited cries from the backbenchers of 'outrageous'.
In a fevered and idealistic dream one might imagine an outrage crawl on the bottom of Bubblevision's and Hee-Haw's (CNBC) that would rotate the following :
'John Williams' of Shadowstats.com reports jobless rate of 16.5 percent.'
'Countdown to Transparency : 64 days from FOI request and counting. Does 2 trillion in collateral actually exist?'
'BLS statistics : How Birth-Death Model creates imaginary jobs.'
'CPI: How hedonics and imputation distort accurate forecasting.'
'Madoff: Markopolos says every single one of the senior managers at Wall Street equity derivative trading desks knew Bernie was a fraud.'
Let's focus on the last one for a moment. Consider the folks who have been crushed by this fraud and realize that it was one of the worst kept secrets on the street. Are you telling me seriously that staffers at the SEC didn't know it?
At the end of the day it comes down to the desire to believe versus the desire to know.
When I was young you really had to work to know. 'Knowing' involved waiting at the 'stacks' (reference library) in order for your book request to be fulfilled. 'Knowing' involved painstaking research and deliberate thought.
As a lad at the university I founded a group called Political Issues Forum and I discovered first hand the validity of a quote Jesse recently put on his blog: "It is a great mystery that though the human heart longs for Truth, in which alone it finds liberation and delight, the first reaction of human beings to Truth is one of hostility and fear. Anthony de Mello.
But today, in this year of out Lord 2009, there is no excuse for ignorance. With opposable thumbs and an able research assistant Senor Google, truth is available at your fingertips. Still though I find, in my daily life, folks choose to believe as opposed to knowing.
In the MSM, the argument is we don't make the news we just report it. However the choice of reporting obviously does make the news. Trillions have been lost because folks who report and folks who listen chose to believe instead of choosing to know.
Perhaps someday the Motley Fops will become Motley Fools and say truth to power.
Until that day I urge folks to believe that they can know the truth, if they set their mind to it and free their mind for it.
Whether it be a bully pulpit or a 'barely' pulpit the truth will set you free, and as it does make sure you recognize the obligation to tell truth to others.
"I will also add that you can write all the regulations you want.....until you actually enforce them they mean very little."
I'll go further. ALL regulatory agencies become owned by the industry regulated. The regulators thus become complicit in cartelizing and protecting the regulated.
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope
I would add - make sure that the compensation matches the intent of the regulations. In the early 80/s when swaps were the new thing on the block my unit was subject to heightened audit scrutiny because we were making "too much money". At the time it seemed nuts to me but with the benefit of hindsight was exactly appropriate for a depositary institution. Although that was not the reason senior management did it- at the time they earned fat salaries and relatively small bonuses and so their personal incentive was their survival (which meant the bank had to survive). If people were really serious about financial reform the first one would be to make sure that officers of depositary institutions did not receive any of their compensation based on higher profits.
cd(Unrated) writes: \tnova, plenty of homeless in San Francisco with every color waiting in soup lines on mission...drive by every day, line is pretty long... \t cd | \t \t \t \t01.09.09 - 11:11 am | # cd | 01.09.09 - 11:11 am | #
But that's been true for a long time, even when the economy was presumably good.
"I will disagree, however, that once you're owned and operated your own business, you can stand on a pedestal and preach to everyone how hard it was and how it made you better (and thus conservative) than everyone else...it was your choice to start a biz.
Janosik | 01.09.09 - 11:49 am | # "
It is a choice that found me and actually it was easy. Most don't have the discipline to wait and grow properly. It takes hard work most will not do. If you like a challenge, are disciplined, really know your craft, then you will succeed if you want to try it. I see great value in being an employee over being in business if you do the same. Top employees in many businesses share the success and don't have the headache of ownership. Did it make me better? You bet I had a great time and afforded me many toys, homes, experiences, independence, I never dreamed of as a poor kid. It is not for everybody but there are way to many screaming about it is not possible for the little guy. It is if you push yourself properly. Happiness is job one, bottom line.
Postal Service feels economy's pinch, will combine routes
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Never miss a McClatchy story - register | log in logout | member center By Matt Campbell | Kansas City Star
A precipitous drop in the volume of mail coursing through the U.S. Postal System will lead to consolidation of urban carrier routes, possibly affecting daily delivery times for millions. And your mailman may not be a familiar face.
Were facing the biggest decline since the Great Depression, said Terry Penland, customer relations coordinator for the Postal Service in Kansas City.
"As a lad at the university I founded a group called Political Issues Forum and I discovered first hand the validity of a quote Jesse recently put on his blog: "It is a great mystery that though the human heart longs for Truth, in which alone it finds liberation and delight, the first reaction of human beings to Truth is one of hostility and fear. Anthony de Mello."
It is not always seen with hostility and fear.
There is truth, and there is Truth, seen as a great light.
"If people were really serious about financial reform the first one would be to make sure that officers of depositary institutions did not receive any of their compensation based on higher profits."
True...the change of incentive to stock options in the 90's was a truly bad thing. Some policy thing the Fed Gov't contemplated...but I'm not going there...
Don't know for sure, but believe The US Military had to put ww? boys through a leaning curve inorder for them to be able to shoot at other human beings...Plowboys off the farm that had never been in harms way before.
Since I was born in '44 and have never trusted someone other than my ownself to provide for me(being a woman, that has not been easy)our Culture may need a learning curve.
Motley Fops Part 2
Bubblevision(Bloomberg) grows a spine for this news cycle and publishes an article that should be broadcasted every day for the next quarter.
Instead I am sure it will fade away, although at least when reported on the station this morning it elicited cries from the backbenchers of 'outrageous'.'
Under pressure from federal authorities, the Swiss bank UBS is closing the hidden offshore accounts of its well-heeled American clients, potentially allowing their secrets to spill into the open.
In a step that would have once been unthinkable in the rarefied world of Swiss banking, UBS will shut about 19,000 accounts that prosecutors suspect have gone undeclared to the Internal Revenue Service.
I understand they have been around but what I'm mentioning is the makeup has changed and I'm seeing middle aged white people who have arrived in line to beat others dressed very nice etc...their not homeless they just need food...I go by every day so the change has caught my eye...
rich,
Some thoughts on SLV's premium to NAV. As I understand it in order to be "good" for delivery as part of creating new SLV shares the silver needs to be assayed/authenticated. I'm sure this process comes with a cost - which is why redeeming SLV for the actual silver may not make sense - once the silver is "out of the system" you have to pay to have it put back in due to assay/authentication.
Could the premium to NAV reflect an increased cost for getting silver "into the system" so to speak - whether by scarcity of physical or increased assay costs?
I for one, don't really have the American dream of owning my own business. Most of the "business owners" I know personally are not only assholes...but their sucking on the government money tit so much it's hard to stomach the way they continually rail against it.
Janosik | 01.09.09 - 11:00 am | #
Small business owners are more likely than others to cheat on taxes as well.
Almost a million jobs lost in the real world
From Citizen King:
Stocks are tanking even though the headline NFP is in-line because the BLS employed seasonal adjusting chicanery to mitigate job losses. Not seasonally adjusted (NSA) 954,000 jobs were lost. Additionally, the BLS's hokey Net Business Birth/Death Model unfathomably created 72k jobs in December.
Thanks. I was going to give an imprecise answer based on my faulty memory. Instead I chose to give a cryptic one that I thought was more generally illuminating, as well as metaphorically arming AP'shadow in several fashions.
He was a psycopath, and he left you feeling violated and wanting for a shower after you had just met with him.
Morocco Bama | 01.09.09 - 12:23 pm | #________________________
He raped you, didn't he? I can tell.
Life at the ole' petty contractor shop has been pretty slow lately.
Does reading blogs four hours a day instead of working constitute part-time employment?
Part time...meh...just get two or three. They're cheap.
Nostrovia,
can I haz a part time job ?
Well that is one good thing for the Bush legacy. He has created the most part-time employment of all time during his term. And who wouldn't be proud of doing that.
And these "forced into part-time workers" would never take a 401K hardship withdrawal. They're still net buyers of stock, right?
I am afraid that U6 (in reality) has already crossed 15%.
We will realize that we have reached that number after corrections.. eventually.
Having been in that group for a while now, I still prefer 'semi-retired' to 'underemployed.'
Must be the gray hair that let's me get away with that.
We are a few hundred thousand short of zero total jobs during the bush admin...Jan should seal the deal and that can be added to his horrible rei
I'm thinking that if Bush gets to be a saint, he could be the patron saint of part-time workers. I could make millions by minting Bush medals for all of the part-timers that would want to wear him around their necks.
I read CR plenty, but have almost never commented.
One "industry" that has been overlooked in all sorts of discussions has been the non-profit sector (NGOs for the Europeans). As with during any other economic downturn, donations are drying up, and these places hae to figure out what to do.
My family is heavily involved in Jewish non-profit (my parents and I are professionals in the field). I have been without work since Dec. 1. There are probably 1/4 the amount od open positions in the Jewish community than there were at this time a year ago, and half of those are either fundraising or part time clerical/admin work (I do education).
Where my mother works, the local Jewish Federation, they went the route of reducing hours and cutting positions in all of the non-fundraising departments. Other orgs are going to 4 day work weeks and asking people to work less.
Finally, the Jewish world was screwed particularly hard and deep by Madoff. There is a community center in FL that just closed its doors one morning, and my best job prospect is with one of the places that lost 80 mil. through him.
I think we will see a dramatic rise in the involuntary part time idea for both good and bad reasons - in some places, it will be forced on workers so the company ownership can continue to get their cut. In other places, it will be asked of workers in order to kep as many employed as possible.
The good news is that some places do have a good understanding of their employees essential needs. At the Jewish Federation I mentioned earlier, even those who are going from full time to part time are keeping their current level of benefits.
Do you think that we might exceed 25% in U6 before this thing is over?
Negative cliff diving?
Does no one here see the good news? Less than 600,000 jobs lost for December--Happy dayz are here again!
You people are so damned pessimistic--it's not like 1982...yet.
Or 1932...yet
0r 1893...yet
Or 1873...yet
So frickin' cheer up!
I'm thinking that if Bush gets to be a saint, he could be the patron saint of part-time workers. I could make millions by minting Bush medals for all of the part-timers that would want to wear him around their necks.
Simian | 01.09.09 - 9:30 am | #
My only hope is that the Obama administration doesn't waste as much time blaming issues-of-the-day on the last administration as current one did. THAT was a goddam waste of time and energy.
I don't care what the level of leadership: After a few months of taking a leadership position, you own every problem that comes across your desk and don't waste my time telling who was at fault.
kurtyboy,
You mean enjoy today because tomorrow's bound to be worse?
pre-market opens in 3 - 2 - 1.... and horses are approaching the gate.....
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins,
I have this feeling that once the real-time U6 crosses 20%, things might start getting problematic- socially.
We're all Slumdog Millionaires now.
We're all Slumdog Millionaires now.
Comrade Tech Sargent Chen | 01.09.09 - 9:35 am | #
Not quite yet.... when Obama and Pelosi actually cut everyone a $1,000,000 check (I expect right around pre mid-term elections), we'll be there.
Back from ces. It's going to be fugly for 1Q tech companies. The hope seems to be for a 2Q inventory "snapback".
Sheila Bair sticks it to the taxpayers again..
IndyMac's bargain price - LA Biz Observed
The market is rebounding based on one pattern:
The end of recession is always marked previously by the peaking of unemployment or underemployment levels.
Essentially, the really bad, exponentially growing U numbers, is convincing bottom catchers that the end of the recession is in sight.
Even looking at CR's graph, someone can make the case that the spiking has to end soon (I don't believe it IMHO) just because it's so bad.
I worry to ask the obvious: What if it's different this time? (IDTT)
I know I will get slammed. I'm probably going to slam myself for saying IDTT -- but isn't this a historic collision of 3 category 5 storms? (Credit bubble, Housing bubble, Global Trade imbalance)
Why is it reasonable to expect the recession track the same pattern as previous ones?
I think freelance workers in USA ( ranges from low paying menial jobs to high paid consultants ) is something like 20 - 25 million and increasing.
BLS does not track this.
Why is it reasonable to expect the recession track the same pattern as previous ones?
hc | 01.09.09 - 9:40 am | #
Because if you don't think that, you can't get a job on bubblevision.
Wait, this is good new right? CNBC just told me this is 8 million less people unemployeed.
To the Moon!
hc,
Talebs turkey example is rather relevant to this situation.
What I don't understand is paying attention at all to the initial numbers put out. Only 540,000 job losses, better than expected. But October's 'better than expected' 320,000 was later revised to 423,000 and November's
'better than expected'533,000 later became 584,000. Why does anyone believe the December number is truly 'better than expected' and won't be revised upward to 640,000 or 'way worse than expected'?
The hope seems to be for a 2Q inventory "snapback".
Dave of SV | 01.09.09 - 9:39 am | #
Were they serving free koolaid?
How many of you believe that U6 is already over 15% (inspite of the official 13.5%)
Lawyerliz:
Please contact me concerning a potential client--has has a property in Palm Beach, and he and his partner are splitting. He will be in FLA next week, and desperately needs counsel.
My email is skagit_demo@hotmail.com.
I will surely appreciate your help.
Kurt
Just remember about today's market action: "The earlier you fall behind, the longer you have to catch up".
crispy: I am curious, how do they assign January unemployment numbers (when reported in February)? Does if fall under Bush, Obama, or do they pro-rata it?
Additional food for thought:
At some point, the law of number does say that that all the jobs that needs to be lost has been lost (Since there's only a fixed # of jobs to start with, not infinity) and the unemployment numbers will peak then.
However, why will the blue recession shading end in the quarter that it peaked?
Didn't Japan go though a 19 year (and counting) depression?
Technically, the British Colonial Empire never recovered from it's collapse (it was the biggest empire at one point, with colonies spanning the globe).
Why is everyone so sure that there IS a rebound? Roman never rebounded, China's "Tang Dynasty" (The richest economy in the world at the time) didn't rebound.
Why is it guaranteed that USA will rebound from this?
Rick, extrapolating the rate of change in the revisions over the prior two months probably proves your point. On the surface, 650-700K seems like a very reasonable estimate.
Can I haz my 2nd derivabtibs now?
A cutie on CNBC just mentioned a "floor" to the market.
In December, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers on pri-
vate nonfarm payrolls fell by 0.2 hour to 33.3 hours, seasonally adjusted--the lowest
level on record for the series, which began in 1964.
As people are losing their jobs, there is still less work for those who remain. Not surprising, but pessimistic going forward.
I am curious, how do they assign January unemployment numbers (when reported in February)?
Dave of SV | 01.09.09 - 9:49 am | #
It's all Obama's fault. Jump on the bandwagon now.
Why is it guaranteed that USA will rebound from this?
hc | 01.09.09 - 9:49 am | #
Stop that! You'll scare people.
Sometimes I think that George Bush will be the great hero of the future socialist America -- because by presiding over the devolution of capitalism, he not only made socialism desirable, but inevitable.
Andrew Mellon vs. Bailout Nation
PIMCO - IO Gross Jan 09 Andrew Mellon vs Bailout Nation
An Obama administration will quickly be confronted by the need to provide those hundreds of billions of dollars to states and large municipalities. Their requests total nearly a trillion dollars and to think California or NYC would be allowed to fail is, well unthinkable. Municipal bonds then, selling at historically high ratios relative to U.S. Treasuries, offer attractive price appreciation potential, or at the very least a defensiveness with high carry that a 2½% 10-year Treasury cannot.
Does working for a clock company automatically label you as a full time worker?
Does a day trader in the red count as unemployed?
lucifer(Unrated) writes:
I have this feeling that once the real-time U6 crosses 20%, things might start getting problematic- socially.
Oh agreed. We're in for some chop.
I would be interested to see the same graph but with the Y axis showing the numbers of part time workers expressed as a percentage of total workers.
Hey Eric I though this mkt was heading up today?
Just remember about today's market action: "The earlier you fall behind, the longer you have to catch up"
So far, today's script is tracking that of Dec 5 almost identically. Wicked bounce coming shortly? We've already got the downside half of an outside day in the bag, and I haven't even finished my bagel and coffee yet.
I have a bad feeling that we will reach a real-time U6 of greater than 20% between April and July 09.
Although I will note that we've actually already got both halves of an outside day.
Yes, but we did not have so many part-timers, discouraged workers and illegal immigrants in 1982.
And people did not require credit to survive to the extent they do now. Today it is hard to survive without credit even if you are fairly frugal and have an average job.
"I would be interested to see the same graph but with the Y axis showing the numbers of part time workers expressed as a percentage of total workers.
Michael | 01.09.09 - 9:59 am | #"
Not sho what this "U6" shizzle izzle, but it's long been my predikshun that unemployment hits 9% by March or April. Sounds ridiculous, I know, but I sense some sort of employment capitulation.
he not only made socialism desirable, but inevitable.
Bob Dobbs | Homepage | 01.09.09 - 9:52 am | #
Not so sure about that.
Ever growing government is arguably the primary cause of all our current troubles. Simply to sustain what we have would require massive tax increases on the backs of an already untenable consumer economic model (given that we've deficit spent to get where we are). Going full socialism would have us sending 2/3rd's of our checks to DC. I just don't see Americans swallowing that, nor the country having anywhere near the business initiative and dynamism it's had.
Regardless, there will be a monster struggle over the size of government and it's role in our society.
I have a bad feeling that we will reach a real-time U6 of greater than 20% between April and July 09.
lucifer | 01.09.09 - 10:01 am | #
The amount of catastrophy and the emergency efforts the Gov would take, makes that seem unlikely to me.
ok, I was expecting a huge rally here given the fudgefakery bls numbers are better than adp. so what gives?
does the market know these numbers are crap?
That's a startling graph in many ways. First, for it's incredibly rapid ascent. Second, for it's height already, and sure to go much higher. Third, for the relatively minor uptick during the last recession. And finally, for the little to no progress made during the supposed economic growth during the W years.
CR, one of the best graphs yet. Why isn't this on CNBC or on the front page of every newspaper?
I hope you are right, but the wave of consumer capitulation until now has pretty much ensured that we will reach that level in a few months. Unless obama drops 5-10k into every families mailbox, consumerism related jobs are going to take a further hit.
--
The amount of catastrophy and the emergency efforts the Gov would take, makes that seem unlikely to me.
Blackhalo | 01.09.09 - 10:05 am | #"
ok, I was expecting a huge rally here given the fudgefakery bls numbers are better than adp. so what gives?
The market doesn't open for another 5 hours. Grab some popcorn, pull up a chair, and watch the pretty red and green flashes while the pre-market does its thing.
George Bush will be the great hero of the future socialist America
Bob Dobbs | Homepage | 01.09.09 - 9:52 am | #
You mean like how Nicolas II was the hero of Soviet Russia?
hc---"Why is it guaranteed that USA will rebound from this?"
Donchya know? We're uniquely American with a uniquely American response?
Forget everything you were ever told, read and force fed, WE must think outside the box.
Hibernation...
Unless obama drops 5-10k into every families mailbox, consumerism related jobs are going to take a further hit.
lucifer | 01.09.09 - 10:08 am | #
How about if he just bough 5-10K of health insurance for every family?
"My only hope is that the Obama administration doesn't waste as much time blaming issues-of-the-day on the last administration"
......My only hope is that the Obama VOTERS don't waste as much time blaming issues-of-the-day on the last administration (unless they add the words "AND CONGRESS").
BTW, I prefer the new term: "Marginally Attached To Labor Force"
ok, I was expecting a huge rally here given the fudgefakery bls numbers are better than adp. so what gives?
sartre | 01.09.09 - 10:07 am | #
Wait for it......................
Everyone's looking at employment numbers, when it's known that employment doesn't LEAD us out of a hole.
Something else must grow first, what can grow at this time?
If the economy continues to collapse like it is now, even green projects & innovations will start to die -- the inability to compete with cheap oil will kill these projects (although I believe we need them.)
If this is a race to the bottom for nations, we collectively are a LONG WAY from the bottom where nothing more can give (i.e. you got nothing to lose)
I would argue that the globe was close to that "nothing to lose bottom" at the end of WW2; alas I don't want such kind of bottom in future.
So the question is what is the floor? What can "put a floor" to all these racing to the bottom?
I hear employees at the grocery store and office supply store complaining to their fellow employees about their cut hours alot lately. I think one of the big results will be moving back home to live with their parents to cut back costs (although I'd rather be a bando living in a huge foreclosure). It is brutal out their for lower skilled workers. I tip heavily these days to try to help a little.
"So the question is what is the floor? What can "put a floor" to all these racing to the bottom?
hc"
War is the floor. Fear the floor.
I am afraid that U6 (in reality) has already crossed 15%.
We will realize that we have reached that number after corrections.. eventually.
lucifer | 01.09.09 - 9:28 am | #
I think I heard that Liesmann guy say it was 13.7% based on official nummers.
It that's so, then surely the real nummer is above 15%.
Elvis,
That's why Rob Dawg & I have been arguing that the average household size has bottomed and will climb from here, further depressing the housing market.
Forget everything you were ever told, read and force fed, WE must think outside the box.
Hibernation...
AP'Shadow | 01.09.09 - 10:10 am | #
Could you loan me your box since you're no longer in it?
"That's why Rob Dawg & I have been arguing that the average household size has bottomed and will climb from here, further depressing the housing market.
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear)"
Right. I know this has been brought up before. Just another reason to emphasize it.
HC-you forgot the auto bubble, remodel bubble, boat bubble, rv bubble, vegas bubble, student loan bubble, atv and pwc bubble, travel bubble, oil bubble...
scrubbing bubbles is not going to get the hard debt stains off this bathtub...
The concept of health insurance in itself is a bad idea. If you live in a developed country, you should not have to worry about decent healthcare (which can be quite cheap)and catastrophic illness coverage. The costliest part of real healthcare is hospitalization in the last few months of life.
If we destroyed healthcare lobbies and insurance companies, we could get better healthcare for less than half.
//How about if he just bough 5-10K of health insurance for every family?
Blackhalo | 01.09.09 - 10:11 am | #//
I really think the feds ought to focus where the wound appears worst - job creation and new business creation. The detoriation in the small business sector is frightening. But I'm certain, that with Obama's experience in the private sector, along with the top-notch industry leaders who volunteer for service in the CONgress, they'll solve this (snark off).
Want to spur job creation and growth? Then create a favorable environment for doing so at the lowest level - small biz. Trickle-up has a lot of merit.
As a serial entrepreneur who has had some measure of success, I'm speaking from experience when I say that the obstacles at the state and federal levels keep getting more absurd and larger. Mandates, ridiculous compliance regs that keep bureaucraps employed, and taxes at the pre-revenue stages are just a few of the obstacles that come to mind. You need to be deranged or ignorant of the obstacles to strike out on your own (I'm the former, btw) and build an organization where people can flourish, prosper, and provide for their families.
The government has never built anything of value without the private sector involved. The best it can do is remove the obstacles that it has erected and continue providing a safety net until those obstacles are gone. OK, now back to banging head against wall.
There's actually been a good volume of lending going thru the interbank market this week, and today is probably the best day in at least a year on that front. Money markets started to freeze up in August 2007, and were a good leading indicator of what was coming down the pipe. Lending spreads are still fairly elevated though, but at least the market is somewhat functional again.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/155413/Ballmer-The-Time-for-Yahoo-Search-Deal-Is-Now?tickers=yhoo,msft,%5Eixic
insert your own caption contest.
Ballmer The Time for Yahoo Search Deal Is Now: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance
k, mo bettah now
Unemployment numbers typically peak AFTER a recession. If that trend holds true this time around, we have a ways to go for under-employment and unemployment.
blackhalo writes:
How about if he just bough 5-10K of health insurance for every family?
Blackhalo | 01.09.09 - 10:11 am
IMHO, this is what Obama and Congress need to focus on with laser-like intensity. Unemployment is really scary to many because of health insurance. Small businesses can't keep up with insurance payments.
Extend unemployment benefits, pass universal health care and stop trying to keep zombie banks staggering around looking for brain tissue to devour...
lucifer(Unrated) writes:
I have a bad feeling that we will reach a real-time U6 of greater than 20% between April and July 09.
Me too, with a weight toward the front end of that range. Possibly into March. We'll see how big the corpse of the real economy is when it starts to fill up with decay gasses and bobs to the surface in a couple months. I'm interested in seeing the market dynamics of Obama's coronation before I make any solid guesses.
Jeeminy......all this hand-wringing, ideas to stimulate, changes "you'd" make, all these "what-ifs".....
......give it a break. What did you expect would happen?
This is what happens when someone sits down at a poker table, loses all his cash, goes to the ATM, draws out a couple hundred, LOSES THAT AS WELL, goes BACK to the ATM, uses another card - another $200 - another bad streak. Next come the markers (casino credit) and then the "time to pay up or we will relocate your kneecaps to your chin".
Think of this as "kneecap-relocation time". There is no magic fairy dust fix.
If we destroyed healthcare lobbies and insurance companies, we could get better healthcare for less than half.
lucifer | 01.09.09 - 10:17 am | #
I'd love to see the AMA go away, and a ban on lobbying by recipients of Federal money, but insurance is just business and I would much prefer a bid process buy competing interests than the Gov to do it.
It is brutal out their for lower skilled workers. I tip heavily these days to try to help a little.
Elvis | 01.09.09 - 10:12 am
(warning: bad language)
Reservoir Dogs - Tips For The Tippers
YouTube - Reservior Dogs - Tips For The Tippers
Next come the markers (casino credit)
Black Star Ranch | 01.09.09 - 10:27 am | #
There's a reason poker players can't draw casino credit lines......
Carry over from midnight thread...two back! Relevant for this thread...
Our industrial policy should be directed towards things that America needs and don't mean rifles and tanks...
If our technological productive efficiencies produces increasing # of unemployed people, then the govt should employ these people perform services that are beneficial to the nation as a whole---Clean up the cities, national parks, child care, health services and etc...
I am no freaking bureaucrat...There are a lot of needs that have been ignored...If we are going to pay unemployed people, then we might as get something useful out of them...plus, the individuals will gain personal value/worth for accomplishing something...
Anonymous | 01.09.09 - 8:11 am | #
saint of part-time workers. I could make millions by minting Bush medals for all of the part-timers that would want to wear him around their necks.
Simian
I believe those used to be called millstones and were tied around necks to keep people in one place.
Insurance and pharma lobbyists have had many, many opportunities to propose a public/private partnership to cut costs. Instead they used the time to protect their excessive rentier profits. They lost their chance. SIngle payer time.
CR, lock your doors and windows, call your atty.
South Korean Blogger Arrested
Nah, after the millstone tieing, comes the tossing in the water. . .and then you're underwater!!! Thanks kurty, will email. CR wasn't a waste of working time!!!
scrubbing bubbles is not going to get the hard debt stains off this bathtub...
cd
lol!
Interesting report asserting Lennar is a ponzi scheme (or a Madoff scheme):
http://lenn-ron.com/docs/FDI-Lennar_Final.pdf
anon-totally agree....cleaning up the streets would keep everybody employed in Calif...Natl parks should be busier going forward as they are close by, cheap to get to and offer some of the beautiful sights in the world...
Volker...I see you got up on the god damn wrong side of the bed.
At 65 have never taken a dime from the US goverment...Own my own company, and probably been outside the box for more than 40 years since I have always been self employed...And you...Where did your anger come from?
The real bottom will appear regardless of all the stimulus money wasted. Income, property values, real wage, consumer demand based on need not wants, dynamics will prevail. A Faux floor will only slow the way down. Unemployment will get much worse as the non recorded is huge compared to the past. Anybody remember the Super Collider in Texas?
Markel,
As a former insurance broker, only 60% of insurance premiums are allocated to claims...The remaining 40% is assigned to costs (primarily labor) and profit...IIRC, SS has a cost rate below 5%...
I could be wrong...
My only hope is that the Obama VOTERS don't waste as much time blaming issues-of-the-day on the last administration (unless they add the words "AND CONGRESS").
Black Star Ranch | 01.09.09 - 10:11 am | #
Yes, 6 years of a Republican congressional majority followed by 2 years of filibustering every single progressive piece of legislation the Dems tried to pass.
Fact. The GOP owns this fucking mess.
lawyerliz - someone up thread was looking for your services..
2 years of filibustering every single progressive piece of legislation the Dems tried to pass.
Gary | 01.09.09 - 10:33 am | #
Pelosi and crew didn't exactly knock themselves out passing legislation.
Also:
The next person to give "one person digging a hole and a second filling it in" as if it were a real example of WPA type policy will get a punch in the balls, followed by your home address given to Conjure Bag.
Talk about a straw man argument.
"Fact. The GOP owns this fucking mess."
....FACT. You are in fact very naive, misinformed, or just plain ignorant.
Maria's lard ass wants to do 3-D porn
CNBC's Maria Bartiromo: Surprisingly Curious About Adult Films In 3D (CLIP)
"At 65 have never taken a dime from the US goverment...Own my own company, and probably been outside the box for more than 40 years since I have always been self employed"
Most employees think employers own them like their parents. They don't get it We just want to use their talent not adopted them. Being your own boss real shows a different picture and total responsibility for your actions.
How so?
I already told you, I think you are utterly dishonest. But what about what I said was wrong?
Those are the facts.
"Fact. The GOP owns this fucking mess."
Most everybody has blood on their hands this time.
....If we're to start re: FedGov pandering and giveaways, we may as well start with YOUR GOOD FRIEND L. B Johnson, a democrat that couldn't find a spending program he didn't like or not sign off on....Need I go further back or forward?....
I already told you, I think you are utterly dishonest. But what about what I said was wrong?
Gary | 01.09.09 - 10:37 am | #
I think the GOP owns most but not all of the responsibility for this. The Dems in congress have hardly covered themselves in glory here.
Most everybody has blood on their hands this time.
joe after the 12 pack
Not me!
Supply siders begin preaching gloom/doom
News N Economics
A song for "official" unemployment rate
Dear Mr. Fantasy
YouTube - Traffic - Dear Mr. Fantasy
Gary, you're going to get everything you deserve soon so don't get your panties in a bunch. Free everything - for everyone! All those things you heard about at "Camp Entitlement" - they're true and they're coming your way! Relax, put your feet up - it'll all be taken care as soon as the last verse of Koombaya is sung. Note to self: Remove McCain/Palin bumper sticker from truck before going to Gary's for dinner.
Empires are empires...they go their way.
There will be no recovery in the traditional sense. It's lonely being the sole superpower (and very expensive). We've spent ourselves away.
The only problem I really see with the situation is how a population raised on the expectations and pressures of American exceptionalism will handle the fact that we are indeed just like everyone else.
....FACT. You are in fact very naive, misinformed, or just plain ignorant.
For those suffering from wingnut amnesia, inspect this: Party In Power - Congress and Presidency - A Visual Guide To The Balance of Power In Congress, 1945-2008
Actually, I own this fucking mess. And so do you.
Rant: While I was over at a friend's house, I was forced to watch the Rachel Maddow show. First, she has to realize she's not Jon Stewart or Stephen Colbert. But more importantly, I didn't learn anything about the Obama stimulus plan or his appointees other than that it's not what GWB would have done.
I'm dreading 2010, when I'll be listening to comparisons to HYPOTHETICAL Bush policies.
Sure it sucks, but Bush would have done...
Thanks barley, I responded. Get email Kurty???
Black Star Ranch | 01.09.09 - 10:39 am | #
I'd rather talk about, you know, things that happened WITHIN MY LIFETIME.
And if we're talking about the current shitstorm, the three most culpable figures are Reagan, Bush the Lesser, and Alan Greenspan.
In our dystopic near future, will Reagan's corpse be exhumed and publicly desecrated to appease the angry gods? Once Bush II and Greenspan have fled for paraguay and beyond the reach of justice.
Where's the board's resident irritating equities trading luminary, popeye the sailor man ?
He claims he bet BIG. So it would stand to reason he's losing BIG.
Anonymous writes:
Supply siders begin preaching gloom/doom
The job_cut table is very misleading. While the total might be 235k. It is not all US jobs or US employment...more shallow reporting from the WSJ - then again I suspect they are welcoming O's big spending program, no?
Thank you, Gooch. Very interesting and articulate post. Sorry for the problems in your industry.
Black Star Ranch writes:
....FACT
Inigo Montoya moment.
History show show seeds planted from previous generations will grow into today problems.
Get to work I want my SS and Medicade out of your generations wages like I paid my parents that they were promised from their parents generation.
You are now in time and place but inherit problems your generation nor mine started. LBJ and others are not todays friend.
lennar link above is good read....
bearly-shhhhhh! don't let him out...
This article by the BBC has a good map of Europe showing the affected countries, and a nice pie chart that shows the EU gas suppliers. Once the gas starts moving again it will take three days to get the entire system back online.
EU gas monitors arrive in Ukraine
Hundreds of thousands of homes in Europe remain without heating amid plunging temperatures, following a row over gas between Russia and Ukraine.
But Russia says shipments will resume when Russian, Ukrainian and EU monitors start work, possibly later in the day.
It may still take several days for gas to reach some areas, however.
"It will take at least three days," to get the whole system functioning again, EU energy spokesman Ferran Terradellas said.
More than 15 countries have been hit by the shutdown of Russian supplies.
BBC NEWS | Europe | EU bidding to resolve gas dispute
From Yesterday:Headline number on the jobs report my be way under as part time numbers soar. U9 should explode until ch7 starts.
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich | 01.08.09 - 10:57 pm
"how many of you believe U6 is over 15%"
May not be over 15% however it's most likely in the middle of the U6 and 15%.
But I vote for closer to 15%......
I'll go look at it later but did the wonderful birth/death model add in construction jobs again?
Ciao
MS
You know, it's interesting the perspectives that get tossed about. People talk about how much savings could be achieved by eliminating insurance companies, for example. Well, take that argument to it's natural end and we can argue that almost any industry can be streamlined by firing everyone and handing the business over to the government.
Yeah, right.
"I'd rather talk about, you know, things that happened WITHIN MY LIFETIME."
Gary....
THAT'S what I was doing also(in my lifetime). Had I known YOUTH was also a consideration, I wouldn't be typing this. EVERYONE in Washington is to blame with very few exceptions. I imagine we will always disagree and quite honestly, I don't have enough time left on this earth (nor energy) to spend it trying to redirect your "flights to fantasy". Many mistakes have been made by our elected officials on BOTH sides of the aisle. Us older guys tend to remember where (WE think) they started. Our memories tend to go back further than the 1980s
At 65 have never taken a dime from the US goverment...Own my own company, and probably been outside the box for more than 40 years since I have always been self employed...And you...Where did your anger come from?
AP'Shadow | 01.09.09 - 10:32 am | #
No one has never taken a dime from the government. You never used infrastructure? No patent law? Hired employees who benefited from public education? Benefited from the rule of law? Utilized technologies or science that arose out of NASA, NIH, or the like?
I doubt it. There is a lot to complain about, but there is a reason there are a lot of "self made men and women" in the USA.
Where did your anger come from?
AP'Shadow |
Volker really hates cats.
Jeebus, another politics thread...
I do not believe 12% unemployment. At the rate families would be living on the street and soup kitchen lines would be forming. Don't see them.
Especially as there is not social services net to speak of. Yes, I know the hard time stories. No, I think it is just people getting a hardon in antcipation of the pain they so dearly love to witness.
whatever happened to dot communist? banker? optimistic joe? sloowww motion? ipoodius? Tennis_8? Sivaram Vilalalllalleuthapilia?
Marcus Aurelius? CSC?
We ALL own this mess. Especially the citizens who VOTE. History shows that people love and keep in power those elected officials who bring home the bacon for their constituency.
If a politician stands on that podium and says to the people.."we are broke, services will be cut back, taxes will be increased and entitlements must be reevaluated" he would be laughed at and lose the election.
SO who really is to blame here?
The whole system sucks, regardless of party.
I am curious about illegal immigration unemployment. It seems that here is SoCal that the lots of Hdepot are getting to resemble soccer stadiums --that is there are a lot of people hanging out "all day" with the game not starting.
Just curious how and if anyone tracks these numbers and the effect on the economy or is every public official's head in the sand?
....NOW I will go feed the cow, chickens, horse, and start the coffee for the Mrs.
lawyerliz - I would like to contact about some S. FL issues too . -Thanks
email - patt817-at-yahoo-dot-com
Maybe the Govt is now working on a plan with transparency?
Geithner Preparing Overhaul Of Bailout
snip
Geithner is also considering creating a new bureau within the Treasury to manage the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, in an attempt to improve the program's operations and oversight.
snip
Black Star Ranch,
I think I qualify as an 'older guy,' and, yes, while LBJ's budgeting process wasn't the best for the long term, the shakeouts of the 1970s pretty much dissolved that problem.
The massive deficit spending under Reagan is really the start of the current problem, followed in turn by Bush, Clinton and Bush. However, there's no doubt in my mind that the current Republican administration, supported by a Republican dominated Congress, went off the charts with wasteful spending and, very likely, destroyed the economy of the U.S. for the forseeable future.
It is also true that Republicans in the Senate, in the minority for the past two years, did threaten to filibuster every piece of legislation proposed by the 50-49-1 Democratic majority unless that legislation was amended to provide more government largesse to the wealthiest in this county.
So I do agree with Gary. I just try not to get so emotional about it. It's not good for the blood pressure for us older guys.
But if and when it comes to class warfare in the U.S., I certainly know which side I'll be on.
Black Star Ranch, truce.
In other stellar news, KB Homes loses $307MM:
KB Home Posts $307 Million Loss - WSJ.com
You said it, BSR. The problems we're facing are the accumulation of nearly 100 years of bad decisions, so pinning it on any one administration and/or Congress is pure partisan folly. They're all at fault.
That said, the Bush administration and associated Congressional bodies floored the gas pedal towards our inevitable trip off the cliff.
"No one has never taken a dime from the government. You never used infrastructure? No patent law? Hired employees who benefited from public education? Benefited from the rule of law? Utilized technologies or science that arose out of NASA, NIH, or the like?
I doubt it. There is a lot to complain about, but there is a reason there are a lot of "self made men and women" in the USA."
Red Pill ---
Thank you, exactly, right on, yippeeee...
I hear so much pro-business and own-your-own claptrap that it makes me sick sometimes...
Not everyone can own a business, some people have to be employees and if they're not protected in some way, everyone loses.
I for one, don't really have the American dream of owning my own business. Most of the "business owners" I know personally are not only assholes...but their sucking on the government money tit so much it's hard to stomach the way they continually rail against it.
My word, I will have to put some money in the top jar.
I assume you can't enter symbols bill?
Is the 2008 2nd half recovery over yet ?
Black star ranch,
hey that would be a good name for a brothel..
heavily used by competitors-former entities such as bunny ranch, mustang ranch, old bridge ranch etc so branding would lead to immediate success depending on how many quality ladies you sign up....
--
Many of the part-time workers of today were part-time working at withdrawing home equity.
Jas
Re: health insurance
The single payer debate is rather pointless if we can't figure out what "health care" is. A reason that health insurance moved from casualty care to maintenance is that the insurers knew they could pass the costs to the employers, who could then pass the costs to the middle class or the government.
Already we are seeing moves from brand names to generics, increases in hospice care, etc. It's going to be interesting to see what is considered "discretionary."
"to think California or NYC would be allowed to fail is, well unthinkable. "
Not unthinkable at all. When NYC was near insolvency in the 70s, Cheney and Rumsfeld, advisors to Prez Ford, encouraged Ford to let the city fail. After initially accepting their view, in the end, Ford overruled them, and advanced loans to the city under the guidance of Felix Rohatyn, that allowed the city to go forward.
In the event, all the loans were paid back to the Feds.
So, I guess we agree...Did I hear somewhere, the mis-allocations of investments...Gee, I guess that is what the market is doing...NOT...
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) writes:
You know, it's interesting the perspectives that get tossed about. People talk about how much savings could be achieved by eliminating insurance companies, for example. Well, take that argument to it's natural end and we can argue that almost any industry can be streamlined by firing everyone and handing the business over to the government.
Many of the part-time workers of today were part-time working at withdrawing home equity.
Jas Jain | Homepage | 01.09.09 - 11:02 am | #
HA! That is actually funny. Nothing Jas has ever written has made me laugh in that way before....
Good and thoughtful comments by sportsfan, Red Pill and janosik.
and an unexpected zinger from Jas Jain who like it or not, will be here all week.
Gooch - feel for you man!
The whole Madoff thing wade me sick because there were and are so many innocent victims.
We have always given generously. I will see if we can up it a bit this year.
While I am not Jewish, I do go to our best friends Shabbat (on Friday nights). Since going for, oh my, almost 8 years now I appreciate the value of family and faith. Last year on my birthday, which happened on a Friday I was presented with a wonderfull cookbook called Aromas of Aleppo.
Take care.
gary has a point based solely on the number of years (over the last 25) of who has been in charge. By that number alone the GOP does, in fact own it, pretty heavily IMO. That's not to say that there is not and has not been complicity on the other side.
The dem. leadership has been too lazy and stupid to have owned this outright.....but they found a willing "partner" in the GOP. The single biggest act however lies in the Clinton Era....the Rubin shit. But was it cause and effect or the other way around? You be the judge.
Ciao
MS
--
Janosik,
I forgot to mention that America has become great at breeding assholes in addition to Crooks and dopes.
Yeah, "America is a great nation."
Jas
Bill writes:
lawyerliz - I would like to contact about some S. FL issues too
I hope lawyerliz is tipping that jar...lol
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear,
IIRC, if you take any argument to its natural conclusion, including capitalism, Marxism, it, the end, is foolish...
whatever happened to dot communist? banker? optimistic joe?. . .
They were laid off, of course. I blame Bush!
--
Does the last part of the graph qualify as hockey-stick?
Jas
MS
MS | 01.09.09 - 11:04 am | #
I agree that Rubin is a villain in all of this. But you can't forget that Clinton (who I was not a fan of and did not vote for) also had Newt Gingrich and Alan Greenspan as his work partners. not exactly a free reign for that Democratic president.
aww crap...
I did the "their" / "they're" thing...I hate when people do that
also,
@Jas
"Many of the part-time workers of today were part-time working at withdrawing home equity."
Yeah and their "equity" was really just an IOU now landing on taxpayers doorsteps.
So, I guess we agree...Did I hear somewhere, the mis-allocations of investments...Gee, I guess that is what the market is doing...NOT...
Anonymous | 01.09.09 - 11:03 am | #
Misallocation based upon politically driven incentives, generally. Follow the money.
THIS TOO SHALL PASS......
Then "The Jas" ruins his one good post of the new year...
THIS TOO SHALL PASS......
PUCCHI | 01.09.09 - 11:08 am | #
Unfortunately, like a three pound kidney stone of irregular and jagged shape.
ova,
With regard to social services, what do you think ghat local and state govt's cuts first, if not social services...The Fed govt. is the only govt that can solve this problem...Do not count on Charities, because there funding is dropping like a stone...
hc writes:
Additional food for thought:
At some point, the law of number does say that that all the jobs that needs to be lost has been lost (Since there's only a fixed # of jobs to start with, not infinity) and the unemployment numbers will peak then.
However, why will the blue recession shading end in the quarter that it peaked?
Didn't Japan go though a 19 year (and counting) depression?
Technically, the British Colonial Empire never recovered from it's collapse (it was the biggest empire at one point, with colonies spanning the globe).
Why is everyone so sure that there IS a rebound? Roman never rebounded, China's "Tang Dynasty" (The richest economy in the world at the time) didn't rebound.
Why is it guaranteed that USA will rebound from this?
hc | 01.09.09 - 9:49 am | #
Excellent questions, hc. I share your sentiments.
The GOP owns this fucking mess.
Gary | 01.09.09 - 10:33 am | #
I have yet to see a convincing case made for Democratic causality. Although, I willing to entertain the possiblitly.
Cox, Paulson and Greenspan sure seem to own and awful lot of the responsibility, along with the rubber stamp Republican congress of the bubble. GOP diehards sure seem eager point figers...
ova,
plenty of homeless in San Francisco with every color waiting in soup lines on mission...drive by every day, line is pretty long...
I can snap my fingers and produce 1.4 million new jobs for Americans.
STOP ALL IMMIGRATION- BOTH TEMP VISAS, GREEN CARDS AND NORMAL INFLOWS.
Why is this so hard to understand?
gary has a point based solely on the number of years (over the last 25) of who has been in charge.
MS | 01.09.09 - 11:04 am | #
In charge? I thought all spending originated in Congress, and the Dems have had the majority there for most of the last 25 (or any longer timeframe).
Again, placing blame is missing the point.
The Pres-elect is banging the drum on the idea of creating 3 million jobs. Looking at the Dept of Labor stats, since the start of the recession in December 2007 the number of unemployed persons has grown by 3.6 million, and the unemployment rate has risen by 2.3 percentage points. IF the real unemployment hits 15% over the next 12 mo, creating 3 million jobs might not be the silver bullet they are touting it to be. Sounds like 6 million in job creation might be a better target.
STOP ALL IMMIGRATION- BOTH TEMP VISAS, GREEN CARDS AND NORMAL INFLOWS.
Sure and hire mediocre people so that the rest can stoop down to your level.
Don't compete and provide more bailouts. I can see where this is heading.
Jason - okay?
I think you have this wrong. Immigration sould go up exponentially. There are lots of bills to pay in the coming years.
The single biggest act however lies in the Clinton Era....the Rubin shit.
MS | 01.09.09 - 11:04 am | #
Can you elaborate? Rubin is a bit of a too, but what was implemented over 8 years ago by him that enabled the current crisis?
@ CD...
the homeless lines are always long in san fran. it is a homeless mecca,and its january...they always swarm to bay area in winter for warmer temps and free food...I travel all over the country and i see the migration of homeless to those areas every winter
Gary - news to me I thought KB were out of business, ggeezz.
rich writes:
\tThank you, Gooch. Very interesting and articulate post. Sorry for the problems in your industry.
rich | 01.09.09 - 10:48 am | #
-----
Seconded.
I have friends and acquaintances who work in the NGO/Non-Profit** world, and they are in similar situations like Gooch. They have funding through this FY and maybe someway through the following FY, but after that period, it is really a crapshoot as to if they will see an '11 FY. As time goes on, that odds keep stacking up against them...
** - Gotta love America with its "Non-Profit" wording which is utter garbage. I guess the law makers wants to sanitize the NGO moniker for our protection.
Jas, not sure if you have seen this piece regarding nominal gdp per capita vs. m3 growth and the race to the bottom for all global currencies via inflation. Would you care to comment on this if you have the time as I value your analysis and contrarian thoughts and honest debate using just fact?
Thanks
Hard Truths | The Big Picture
This Pepsi, Pepsi Lite argument is amusing.
No one said late stage capitalism would be fun. Reality always catches up to superstition.
Very good charts :
The December Non-Farm Payrolls Report: Portrait of a Ponzi Economy
Jesse's Café Américain: The December Non-Farm Payrolls Report: Portrait of a Ponzi Economy
Barley, there was a rescue merger - KB Homes now building all houses out of Legos, mega Blox and Tinker Toys.
The high end Lincoln Log inventory was sold to Pulte.
i really wonder if these trends will pressure the growth of the informal economy, especially as taxes increase.
there should be a few aspects to the 'cash and carry' economy that mean that native-born americans return to more under-the-table forms of employment.
Sorry bill, the email didn't work.
Send again???
Catching up on the threads...some thoughts.
Dolt01@dolt.net
Bush may be leaving us but Hank Paulson, at least, is not. Rumour is he has a new job: Watching. You. Poop. Hank Paulson Is Watching You Poop! | Systemically Important
gary-
that why I said it was a single act......you have to have complicity and that IMO was the key to all of this. It wasn't coincidence that a few short year's after that occurred that the system began having it's ah "problems".
Ciao
MS
OT, sorry
I'd just like to say for the record, that the Russians shutting off gas is completely crazy.
All of my extended family lives in Slovakia and we're in the shit. Hard freeze about to happen as well - we have cold winters. And I don't even want to think about Romania...the poverty and economic weakness there is terrible.
"I for one, don't really have the American dream of owning my own business. Most of the "business owners" I know personally are not only assholes...but their sucking on the government money tit so much it's hard to stomach the way they continually rail against it."
You don't need to be in business. Years of being in business has taught some of us old timers that the entitlement changed in the 90's. Minimum wage protects (BS) the worker. What law protects the employer with a minimum work output? Work responsibility. Showing up on time, Cell phone abuse, bar room flu days, personal computer use on company time, etc. Many like me who are in business may have never had a government contract (nor did I ever want one) excepted unemployment, grant, etc. On the other hand we produced jobs, paid untold taxes, many flat extortion. For people like us as in racing business is competition. In racing second place is first loser. Business is the ultimate test of skills and balls to survive and prosper. I just get tired of many who think all businesses are rich and the worker is pissed on. Try business and it will teach you a brutal lessons and bam! before you know it your a conservative. It did it to me. Enjoy your job and sleep at night.
You forgot to add all current individuals in the US...Will open up the job market for American skilled employees/independent contractors...
Jason writes:
I can snap my fingers and produce 1.4 million new jobs for Americans.
STOP ALL IMMIGRATION- BOTH TEMP VISAS, GREEN CARDS AND NORMAL INFLOWS.
blackhalo-
Teflon Bob and Banking Deregulation
"teflon bob"
Still getting a free pass IMO.
Ciao
MS
what was implemented over 8 years ago by him that enabled the current crisis?
Despite the name, the real mastermind behind Gramm-Leach-Bliley was Rubin, as the merger of Citi and Travelers depended on the ability to create the "financial holding company." And strangely, Greenspan was actually against many of the provisions of GLBA, especially the balkanized regulatory structure. Ya think Citi rewarded Rubin for his efforts?
Here's two interesting points about today's employment data, via Dean Baker's Jobs Byte:
With the length of the average workweek getting shorter, the decline in hours worked has been even more rapid than the drop in employment. From September to December, the index of hours worked for production workers fell at a 9.4 percent annual rate. This rate of decline in hours would be equivalent to losing 12.8 million jobs over the course of a year, if the length of the workweek was constant.
. . .
Remarkably, employment among older workers is continuing to increase even through this downturn. Employment among workers over age 55 rose by 233,000 since September. On the other side, employment for workers aged 35-44 fell by 559,000 or 1.7 percent, while employment for workers aged 25-34 fell by 488,000 or 1.6 percent.
So early Boomers are making out like bandits after cashing out on their bubble inflated residence and cutting hours for younger workers. Brilliant!
Janosik - its called economic terrorism. Get used to it. They are simply mimicing the corner stone of Amerika's foreign policy.
That said the gas has now been turned back on.
Immigration should [ed.] go up exponentially. There are lots of bills to pay in the coming years.
Barley | 01.09.09 - 11:15 am
I'm inclined to agree with this point in part because the social welfare system in this country does depend on an increasing number of younger workers and we have the opposite of that today.
BTW, I still think the U.S. is a great country and that I've been privileged to live here even though I'm not wealthy or otherwise a success story in the classic economic sense.
I received a fine education from a couple of stellar universities and have had a modicum of freedom allowed to me to pursue 'happiness' as I saw it. The fact that I chose to move to this 'god forsaken desert' some 25 years ago was my choice, as was all that followed. No one else has been responsible for my choices, but I reserve the right to have and to change my opinions concerning who has responsibility for what happens on the national level.
Obama is inheriting a lose-lose situation, nationally and internationally, but he will own it soon enough.
the homeless lines are always long in san fran. it is a homeless mecca,and its january...they always swarm to bay area in winter for warmer temps and free food...I travel all over the country and i see the migration of homeless to those areas every winter
Barakuda | 01.09.09 - 11:15 am
I talked to a Vietnam vet the other day who was born and raised in SF before going to Vietnam. He said the homeless problem in SF wasn't there before he left, but it was when he returned in 1973. There is a lot of migration that is true. I think FL gets a significant influx in the winter as well.
The real bottom will appear regardless of all the stimulus money wasted. Income, property values, real wage, consumer demand based on need not wants, dynamics will prevail. A Faux floor will only slow the way down. Unemployment will get much worse as the non recorded is huge compared to the past. Anybody remember the Super Collider in Texas?
joe after the 12 pack
I agree with you about the bottom. This sounds really familiar, though. Did you post on this about a year ago? Wondering.
ipodius is still doing his victory lap after the ECB cut rates.
"I have yet to see a convincing case made for Democratic causality. Although, I willing to entertain the possiblitly."
Clinton pushed deregulation and every one own a house. First insane bubble Dot Com from his administrations lack of discipline. Follow hot fingers Henry Cisnerous HUD to Country wide. Start there, plenty to go around
Joe after 12 pack - thanks for articulating the entrepreneur's sentiment so well.
lawyerliz -
my email again -
patt817-at-yahoo-dot.com
Thanks
"destroyed the economy of the U.S. for the forseeable future."
they would have needed to be proactive in regards to demographic challenges in any case. instead, they passed the donut bill and doubled the natl debt without significantly expanding coverage, and the rest is history.
"So early Boomers are making out like bandits "
Older workers tend to have a strong work ethic, and and will often accept lower wages than younger workers.
So shoot me!
I jumped into FIE.TO.
"Ya think Citi rewarded Rubin for his efforts?"
To the tune of about $20m a year since his hiring at C. And that's just his salary...
I still have no idea what he actually does at C.......most likely what everyone else over there does.....wait for help from above.
Ciao
MS
MS - maybe it has taken him this long to get TARP going. lol
Tim in Cali(Unrated) writes:
I am curious about illegal immigration unemployment. It seems that here is SoCal that the lots of Hdepot are getting to resemble soccer stadiums --that is there are a lot of people hanging out "all day" with the game not starting.
Just curious how and if anyone tracks these numbers and the effect on the economy or is every public official's head in the sand?
\t Tim in Cali | \t \t \t \t01.09.09 - 10:58 am | #Not that I'm aware. But the crowds of Latino casual labor outside the lumber yard in my neighborhood have started to grow again, after falling off in the early part of the year. I attributed the fall-off to the return of some illegals to Mexico. I attribute this rise to resident off-season pickers who can't find work, or "legal" low-end workers who've been cut back in the restaurant and service trades. I live in an ag area.
Here is an update on the emerging silver squeeze. As you may know, I am watching the silver bullion ETF (SLV) closely.
Monday, an all-time record 3.0 million shares of SLV traded. Yesterday, 2.4 million shares trade, third most in history.
Today, as I write, volume is at 3.0 million and may end the day at 4.0 million. The shares have traded at an average premium of 2.4% over NAV over the last nine sessions. This has never happened before.
Shoot me twice!
Jumped into FTU.TO as well.
Cr is gonna kick me off.
Roubini forecasts recession will last 2 years - MarketWatch
Roubini is now predicting that unemployment will peak at 9% in 2010, yet in the same breath saying that GDP will decline by 5% over 2 years. He predicts consumer prices will drop by only 2% in 2009. I find this to be wildly optimistic somehow.
@ rich: and your take on SLV is?
Elvis(Unrated) writes:
\tI hear employees at the grocery store and office supply store complaining to their fellow employees about their cut hours alot lately. I think one of the big results will be moving back home to live with their parents to cut back costs (although I'd rather be a bando living in a huge foreclosure). It is brutal out their for lower skilled workers. I tip heavily these days to try to help a little.
Elvis | 01.09.09 - 10:12 am | #
Anecdotal: heard something of that last night. Friend of my wife owns a couple of businesses (jewelry store, laundromat) and lives on some acreage up in the hills with a couple of houses. One of her children, and his family, is moving back in with her, and the other is asking about it.
joe after the 12 pack.
See Roland Arnall and Ameriquest...apppointed ambassador by Bush on the day his mortgage company was fined in excess of 300 million for predatory lending practices. Arnall was also Bush's largest campaign contributor.
See also Bush's "American Dream" legislation of 2003 to see the real liftoff of the housing bubble.
Volker really hates cats.
nova | 01.09.09 - 10:55 am | #
Not this Volker. Maybe the overly tall octogenarian, but not I.
It has begun :
Yuan-settlement test to start
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/sp/article/2009/200901/20090107/article_387229.htm
CHINA'S central bank said yesterday that it plans to implement a pilot program that would settle overseas trade with the Chinese currency instead of the US dollar.
The People's Bank of China will expand financial cooperation with overseas economies and "properly deal with the global financial crisis," the central bank said.
I agree with you about the bottom. This sounds really familiar, though. Did you post on this about a year ago? Wondering.
Comrade Yossarian | 01.09.09 - 11:27 am | #
No I have been reading and learning for a couple of years. Just started posting recently.
Arghhh - thanks for the post
Nobel prize-winning economist Dr. Paul Krugman (PBUH) saith:
"Mr. Obama offers a $775 billion plan. And thats not enough."
How much is enough? Nobel prize-winning economist Dr. Paul Krugman (PBUH) saith $2 Trillion.
You never knew economics was this easy, right?
[Jason writes:
I can snap my fingers and produce 1.4 million new jobs for Americans.
STOP ALL IMMIGRATION- BOTH TEMP VISAS, GREEN CARDS AND NORMAL INFLOWS]
I'll miss jas. And so will the librarian at the facility where he hogs the computer to get on the internet.
"a new meat is gracing the British table: squirrel"
Saving A Squirrel By Eating One - NY Times.
barely
I can't help but think that was the plan all along. Get massively over-leveraged on the backs of all those "bad consumer's" who didn't pay there mortgages and then sit back and wait for help to arrive-any sane person that had one ounce of business sense could see that this was a problem of deregulation way before it actually occurred. Whatever your opinion is it's pretty clear to me that Rubin's deals have had a massive effect of causing and exacerbating the real issue(s) here. But I also believe that the system would have found another way to do it......notwithstanding Rubin and then Glass-Steagel.
Ciao
MS
fried writes:
joe after the 12 pack.
See Roland Arnall and Ameriquest...apppointed ambassador by Bush on the day his mortgage company was fined in excess of 300 million for predatory lending practices. Arnall was also Bush's largest campaign contributor.
See also Bush's "American Dream" legislation of 2003 to see the real liftoff of the housing bubble.
fried | 01.09.09 - 11:34 am | #
No need, There is plenty on both sides as far as I am concerned. Just wait for the people to smarten up enough to get mad and quit voting for either party. We need politicians that represent "We the people" first.
ecoshift - this blog predicted this would happen - woho!
You never knew economics was this easy, right?
Why don't you run through the formulas he posted on his blog and show where the numbers don't add up? He posted a simple, back of the envelope calc, should be no problem, it's easy.
Janosik | 01.09.09 - 11:20 am | #
Best to you and your extended family, I hope they all keep warm.
This thing will have significant knock on effects...
El Cliffo writes:
Nobel prize-winning economist Dr. Paul Krugman (PBUH) saith
Well, he probably assumed:
USD=Peso
Barley, if you want to read some more compelling FX information, i suggest you visit :
Market Skeptics
Jason, You are right, but not politicaly correct. right
Can someone explain to me what a learning curve is and where the phrase was coined and why.
That said the gas has now been turned back on.
Barley | 01.09.09 - 11:23 am | #
Link please - Bloomberg latest:
Miller Says Ukraine Accepts Gas Monitors; No Flow Yet (Update1)
Miller Says Ukraine Accepts Gas Monitors; No Flow Yet (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
SLV-
alot of accumulation going on over there. It's not trading with it's "normal" pattern.
I, in fact, began buying more earlier this week. IMO it's gonna go.......the disconnect between it and physical is not going to stay that way. GLD is a tool of the hedgies so I think it will have it's day however there is still a massive amount of delevering to come and it seems more effected by that than SLV.
IMO
Ciao
MS
Larry Kudlow told me that part time workers are Mustard Seeds.
rich writes:
Monday, an all-time record 3.0 million shares of SLV traded. Yesterday, 2.4 million shares trade, third most in history. . . Today, as I write, volume is at 3.0 million and may end the day at 4.0 million.
Your volumes are inaccurate. Volume for yesterday was 9.0 mil, Monday 6.4 mil., all time high daily volume for SLV 31.6 mil on 3/20/08.
Your SLW had a nice rally last month. 6.98 is written all over it. Are you taking principal off and accumulating profit-only shares?
Illinois house votes to impeach Blago.
In other news, water is wet.
Pete Morici just labeled this a Depression. Guess he's not buddy-buddy with Geithner a la Roubini
But I also believe that the system would have found another way to do it......notwithstanding Rubin and then Glass-Steagel.
Interesting that you mention that...
The Fun Part - Assigning Blame
http://mpettis.com/2009/01/168/
"as a former smart-ass banker/trader I am too respectful of the enormous ability of the market to game any system that can be put into place. Regulators simply cannot outplay the market, and when too much liquidity leads to an increase in risk appetite, the financial system will find a way to take on more risk that might be healthy. "
Even those who own homes free and clear will find that, in a frozen property market, they can not move to where the jobs are, or to a more suitable property with some self-sufficiency potential. If they lose their jobs, they may lose their homes through being unable to pay the sky-rocketing property taxes that municipalities will introduce in a desperate attempt to fill the gaping holes in their own budgets. This is why we suggest that people generally rent rather than own (unless they own a homestead free and clear). Renting amounts to paying someone else a fee to take the property price risk for you, and that is a very good bet under today's circumstances. Rents will fall a long way in a deflation, and although landlord default is always a possibility (perhaps meaning more than one move), that risk is preferable to losing the bulk of one's assets in a property price collapse.
SL
ecoshift(Unrated) writes:
\t"a new meat is gracing the British table: squirrel"
In a Cold Economy, Fancy Food Is Hot - NY Times 07squirrel.
\t ecoshift | \t \t \tHomepage | \t01.09.09 - 11:37 am | #
ecoshift | Homepage | 01.09.09 - 11:37 am | #
It's pretty good when fried. Tastes like chicken.....really
AP'Shadow(Unrated) writes:
Can someone explain to me what a learning curve is and where the phrase was coined and why.
It's dangerous to go alone! Take this.
@ jat6p and
"Joe after 12 pack - thanks for articulating the entrepreneur's sentiment so well.
Hugh Jass | 01.09.09 - 11:28 am |"
I'll agree with the sentiment. And It adds to my point that not everyone can or should be an entrepreneur/business owner. Too many idiots take advantage of all the "incentives" (tax and other) and drive their local economies and the economy in general into the ground.
Now that the era of free money is quickly coming to a close...all these quasi-business are going to go BK having thrown plenty of good capital into a deep deep hole.
I will disagree, however, that once you're owned and operated your own business, you can stand on a pedestal and preach to everyone how hard it was and how it made you better (and thus conservative) than everyone else...it was your choice to start a biz.
I will also add that you can write all the regulations you want.....until you actually enforce them they mean very little.
The SEC has proven this to a fault.
Ciao
MS
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins,
<a href="http://www.rpgamer.com/games/zelda/z1/graphics/screen/snap003.gif>Old school =)
In terms of mortgages, even those that seemed conservative in recent years were not. In the latter stages of a credit bubble, even a deposit of over 50% and a monthly payment that could be covered by one of two salaries is a recipe for deep trouble. We are looking at a collapse of property prices and a huge rise in unemployment, which will combine to cause an unprecedented amount of negative equity, defaults and foreclosure, and, thanks to leverage, the resulting loses will snowball, further undercutting the supposed value of financial assets. The 'conservative' mortgagees are mostly just as trapped as those who over-extended themselves further.
SL
I will also add that you can write all the regulations you want.....until you actually enforce them they mean very little.
100% True.
citizen energyecon - email from a friend...Germany/Russia reach accord on deliveries and monitors
"rein"
reig
citizen energyecon - on the wires;
FOCUS Information Agency
Is obama going to raise wages ?
nuff said.
aapl implosion watch; 2nd attempt at 90.
MS,
"I will also add that you can write all the regulations you want.....until you actually enforce them they mean very little."
I'll go further. ALL regulatory agencies become owned by the industry regulated. The regulators thus become complicit in cartelizing and protecting the regulated.
Nostrovia,
"Pete Morici just labeled this a Depression. Guess he's not buddy-buddy with Geithner a la Roubini"
Morici sounded like an optimist a few months ago, and before that a pessimist/skeptic. At least when I heard him.
Okay, I'm a bit at sea.
Perhaps it's the ammonia fumes. (just mopped the floor on the kitchen, not the market)
What precisely are you meaning by the silver squeeze? Someone's buying up silver to sucker folks in?
and is this only happening with silver paper?
Palm shares soar as new smartphone wins Wall Street praise
aapl beware
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse(Excellent) writes:
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins,
Old school =)
I'm not playing Super Robot Taisen Original Generation to hang out here.
That's love.
AP'Shadow(Unrated) writes:
Can someone explain to me what a learning curve is and where the phrase was coined and why.
I believe it was based on unit cost which declines with greater experience in building the particular widget.
just a thought, from my USMC days, mammals carry diseases that are harmful to other mammals...
I suspect that squrils should not be eaten median rare...
"Factoring in discouraged workers, unemployment is closer to 9.4%," said Peter Morici, an economist at the University of Maryland. "Add workers in part-time positions that cannot find full time employment and the hidden unemployment rate is 14.5%."
F CNBC -- they have Gary Shilling on and they are not letting him speak - what scum bags they are
You must admit, I've been good on this thread, thus far. Not even biting.
"Roubini is now predicting that unemployment will peak at 9% in 2010"
All things being equal. But will they be?
How many prophets earn their living at the track?
To come up with his $2 Trillion number, Krugman (PBUH) useth Congressional Budget Office projections --politicized data which is worth even less than the backs of the envelopes they're written on. And there are no formulas there in Krugman's blog post. What formulas?
As a famous economist once said, "Let's assume a can opener."
OT
Motley Fops Part 2
Bubblevision(Bloomberg) grows a spine for this news cycle and publishes an article that should be broadcasted every day for the next quarter.
Instead I am sure it will fade away, although at least when reported on the station this morning it elicited cries from the backbenchers of 'outrageous'.
In a fevered and idealistic dream one might imagine an outrage crawl on the bottom of Bubblevision's and Hee-Haw's (CNBC) that would rotate the following :
'John Williams' of Shadowstats.com reports jobless rate of 16.5 percent.'
'Countdown to Transparency : 64 days from FOI request and counting. Does 2 trillion in collateral actually exist?'
'BLS statistics : How Birth-Death Model creates imaginary jobs.'
'CPI: How hedonics and imputation distort accurate forecasting.'
'S&P forecasts $40 earnings, equities grossly overpriced.'
'Madoff: Markopolos says every single one of the senior managers at Wall Street equity derivative trading desks knew Bernie was a fraud.'
Let's focus on the last one for a moment. Consider the folks who have been crushed by this fraud and realize that it was one of the worst kept secrets on the street. Are you telling me seriously that staffers at the SEC didn't know it?
At the end of the day it comes down to the desire to believe versus the desire to know.
When I was young you really had to work to know. 'Knowing' involved waiting at the 'stacks' (reference library) in order for your book request to be fulfilled. 'Knowing' involved painstaking research and deliberate thought.
As a lad at the university I founded a group called Political Issues Forum and I discovered first hand the validity of a quote Jesse recently put on his blog: "It is a great mystery that though the human heart longs for Truth, in which alone it finds liberation and delight, the first reaction of human beings to Truth is one of hostility and fear. Anthony de Mello.
But today, in this year of out Lord 2009, there is no excuse for ignorance. With opposable thumbs and an able research assistant Senor Google, truth is available at your fingertips. Still though I find, in my daily life, folks choose to believe as opposed to knowing.
In the MSM, the argument is we don't make the news we just report it. However the choice of reporting obviously does make the news. Trillions have been lost because folks who report and folks who listen chose to believe instead of choosing to know.
Perhaps someday the Motley Fops will become Motley Fools and say truth to power.
Until that day I urge folks to believe that they can know the truth, if they set their mind to it and free their mind for it.
Whether it be a bully pulpit or a 'barely' pulpit the truth will set you free, and as it does make sure you recognize the obligation to tell truth to others.
The truth is out there.
Don't be afraid.
Californicated writes:
Palm shares soar
I have trouble w/ Palm - Can they execute? Once in their lifetime?
Pavel Chichikov(Very Good) writes:
\t"Roubini is now predicting that unemployment will peak at 9% in 2010"
Pavel Chichikov | 01.09.09 - 11:59 am | #
What do you/he think the per centage of discouraged workers will be?
MS,
"I will also add that you can write all the regulations you want.....until you actually enforce them they mean very little."
I'll go further. ALL regulatory agencies become owned by the industry regulated. The regulators thus become complicit in cartelizing and protecting the regulated.
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope
I would add - make sure that the compensation matches the intent of the regulations. In the early 80/s when swaps were the new thing on the block my unit was subject to heightened audit scrutiny because we were making "too much money". At the time it seemed nuts to me but with the benefit of hindsight was exactly appropriate for a depositary institution. Although that was not the reason senior management did it- at the time they earned fat salaries and relatively small bonuses and so their personal incentive was their survival (which meant the bank had to survive). If people were really serious about financial reform the first one would be to make sure that officers of depositary institutions did not receive any of their compensation based on higher profits.
Comrade Misean is Dope - Well said!
cd(Unrated) writes:
\tnova,
plenty of homeless in San Francisco with every color waiting in soup lines on mission...drive by every day, line is pretty long...
\t cd | \t \t \t \t01.09.09 - 11:11 am | #
cd | 01.09.09 - 11:11 am | #
But that's been true for a long time, even when the economy was presumably good.
"I will disagree, however, that once you're owned and operated your own business, you can stand on a pedestal and preach to everyone how hard it was and how it made you better (and thus conservative) than everyone else...it was your choice to start a biz.
Janosik | 01.09.09 - 11:49 am | # "
It is a choice that found me and actually it was easy. Most don't have the discipline to wait and grow properly. It takes hard work most will not do. If you like a challenge, are disciplined, really know your craft, then you will succeed if you want to try it. I see great value in being an employee over being in business if you do the same. Top employees in many businesses share the success and don't have the headache of ownership. Did it make me better? You bet I had a great time and afforded me many toys, homes, experiences, independence, I never dreamed of as a poor kid. It is not for everybody but there are way to many screaming about it is not possible for the little guy. It is if you push yourself properly. Happiness is job one, bottom line.
Postal Service feels economy's pinch, will combine routes
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Never miss a McClatchy story - register | log in logout | member center By Matt Campbell | Kansas City Star
A precipitous drop in the volume of mail coursing through the U.S. Postal System will lead to consolidation of urban carrier routes, possibly affecting daily delivery times for millions. And your mailman may not be a familiar face.
Were facing the biggest decline since the Great Depression, said Terry Penland, customer relations coordinator for the Postal Service in Kansas City.
misean-
That's why the phrase "self-policing" is anathema to any sort of real enforcement.
Nail meet head.....
Ciao
MS
"As a lad at the university I founded a group called Political Issues Forum and I discovered first hand the validity of a quote Jesse recently put on his blog: "It is a great mystery that though the human heart longs for Truth, in which alone it finds liberation and delight, the first reaction of human beings to Truth is one of hostility and fear. Anthony de Mello."
It is not always seen with hostility and fear.
There is truth, and there is Truth, seen as a great light.
John 1,5
Forgot Conservative to me is not Republican nor any specific party anymore.
"Roubini is now predicting that unemployment will peak at 9% in 2010"
Doctor Doomlittle?
"Pavel Chichikov(Very Good) writes:
"Roubini is now predicting that unemployment will peak at 9% in 2010"
Pavel Chichikov | 01.09.09 - 11:59 am | "#
I didn't write that. I did write, in effect, that such predictions are unreliable.
Frank Releases Outline of Legislation to Amend TARP
House Financial Services Committee
MS,
"If people were really serious about financial reform the first one would be to make sure that officers of depositary institutions did not receive any of their compensation based on higher profits."
True...the change of incentive to stock options in the 90's was a truly bad thing. Some policy thing the Fed Gov't contemplated...but I'm not going there...
Barley,
Nostrovia,
Is obama going to raise wages ?
nuff said.
bearly | 01.09.09 - 11:54 am | #
yeah, I get a vision of an 800 lb gorilla and an elephant sitting a room, wondering why nobody thinks their presence is odd.
no money, no credit, no "recovery"
Gosh, all those baaad headlines. Can't have that.
Is it all priced in now?
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
Paulson on bloomebrg now :
Free Online TV | Live TV Channels - TVLizer - Live TV Channels, Free Stream Television : tvlizer.com - Live TV Channels, Free Stream Television : tvlizer.com
Sarkozy, Merkel, Blair call for new capitalism
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Don't know for sure, but believe The US Military had to put ww? boys through a leaning curve inorder for them to be able to shoot at other human beings...Plowboys off the farm that had never been in harms way before.
Since I was born in '44 and have never trusted someone other than my ownself to provide for me(being a woman, that has not been easy)our Culture may need a learning curve.
B_R good reference. Since PCA beat me to the punch I offer this alternative:
http://lolcat.com/pics/takethis.jpg
Just love Bloomy sometimes:
"Market Expectations
Employees fired 524,000 people in December"
Are we there yet?
lawyerliz | 01.09.09 - 12:13 pm | #
Somebody dropped a flag yesterday. All I hear is crickets though.
LBJ and others are not todays friend.
joe after the 12 pack | 01.09.09 - 10:50 am | #
Nor was he my friend back then. LBJ and McNamara - what a combo.
comrade swan writes:
OT
Motley Fops Part 2
Bubblevision(Bloomberg) grows a spine for this news cycle and publishes an article that should be broadcasted every day for the next quarter.
Instead I am sure it will fade away, although at least when reported on the station this morning it elicited cries from the backbenchers of 'outrageous'.'
IOTW,
Bloomberg is gearing up for his 2012 run.
"Treasuries have fallen 1.1 percent in 2009, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.s Treasury Master Index, the worst start to a year since at least 1986"
Catz. . .
AWWWWwwwwwww.
Cute.
Pressured by I.R.S., UBS Is Closing Secret Accounts
Pressured by I.R.S., UBS Is Closing Secret Accounts - NY Times
Under pressure from federal authorities, the Swiss bank UBS is closing the hidden offshore accounts of its well-heeled American clients, potentially allowing their secrets to spill into the open.
In a step that would have once been unthinkable in the rarefied world of Swiss banking, UBS will shut about 19,000 accounts that prosecutors suspect have gone undeclared to the Internal Revenue Service.
barcuda-xxxx, doc,
I understand they have been around but what I'm mentioning is the makeup has changed and I'm seeing middle aged white people who have arrived in line to beat others dressed very nice etc...their not homeless they just need food...I go by every day so the change has caught my eye...
I'm live you guys are taped....big difference....
The next time I have martini's for lunch, I'll unplug the keyboard.
Sorry.
Arghhh - Tomorrow's headline will be:
UBS (London) Launchs new Account Servicing Program - 19k accounts opened in the first hour of offering
LBJ was the kind of man who could rape you without physically touching you, although he did like to touch everyone, men and women alike.
He was a psycopath, and he left you feeling violated and wanting for a shower after you had just met with him.
Popeye,
Props for manning up - and thanks for the laugh - good luck in the trenches.
rich,
Some thoughts on SLV's premium to NAV. As I understand it in order to be "good" for delivery as part of creating new SLV shares the silver needs to be assayed/authenticated. I'm sure this process comes with a cost - which is why redeeming SLV for the actual silver may not make sense - once the silver is "out of the system" you have to pay to have it put back in due to assay/authentication.
Could the premium to NAV reflect an increased cost for getting silver "into the system" so to speak - whether by scarcity of physical or increased assay costs?
I for one, don't really have the American dream of owning my own business. Most of the "business owners" I know personally are not only assholes...but their sucking on the government money tit so much it's hard to stomach the way they continually rail against it.
Janosik | 01.09.09 - 11:00 am | #
Small business owners are more likely than others to cheat on taxes as well.
Chinese commercial: Catz...it's what's for dinner!!...starring an exhumed Robert Mitchum..
Almost a million jobs lost in the real world
From Citizen King:
Stocks are tanking even though the headline NFP is in-line because the BLS employed seasonal adjusting chicanery to mitigate job losses. Not seasonally adjusted (NSA) 954,000 jobs were lost. Additionally, the BLS's hokey Net Business Birth/Death Model unfathomably created 72k jobs in December.
UBS (London) Launchs new Account Servicing Program - 19k accounts opened in the first hour of offering
Iceland should declare themselves a tax haven, that ought to do the trick.
Morocco Bama,
"He was a psycopath, and he left you feeling violated and wanting for a shower after you had just met with him.'
This is different from run of the mill politicians, how?
Nostrovia,
The next time I have martini's for lunch, I'll unplug the keyboard.
Popeye | 01.09.09 - 12:21 pm | #
LMAO. Self deprecating humor, the best kind.
Gary(Unrated) writes:
B_R good reference.
Thanks. I was going to give an imprecise answer based on my faulty memory. Instead I chose to give a cryptic one that I thought was more generally illuminating, as well as metaphorically arming AP'shadow in several fashions.
citizen energyecon,
OT
update...parts arriving...
Nostrovia,
He was a psycopath, and he left you feeling violated and wanting for a shower after you had just met with him.
Morocco Bama | 01.09.09 - 12:23 pm | #________________________
He raped you, didn't he? I can tell.
This is different from run of the mill politicians, how?
LOL! LBJ was over the top, even for a politician. Joe Biden reminds me of him.