Can anyone explain this anomaly with S&P Case Shiller Futures data?
What doesn't make sense:
Vegas shows currently -39.3% from peak.
But the futures show the Vegas trough 2.5 years away, only at -46.8% ???
Same issue for Miami, etc.
Is there some mistake with the futures data?
Barley, reposting from last thread in case you missed it. What do you mean by crooked?
Is it a government thing or a private business thing?
Does it apply to Teck Cominco, EA Games, Lions Gate Films, Ballard, ...
~ ~ ~ ~
Barley writes:
lucifer writes:
Meanwhile in Canada.. Vancouver might go broke without federal help.
You know months ago I said this would happen and some here said I was crazy. Point is people in Vancouver are STUPID and the governments ARE corrupt. So let them eat cake. No-Spine-Bastards...
(sorry never flew off the handel like this...just that British Columbia is such a crooked place to do business)
"Although I expect a significant decline in office investment over the next few years, the good news is the current boom wasn't anywhere near as large as the previous booms - so hopefully the bust will not be as bad as the early '90s."
Not sure if I agree...maybe the building was not as large, but the leverage was of such a great magnitude that the amount will be on par with that last bust....throw in 11% UE and...
Maybe not so much a boom in office space -- I wonder if the rise in outsourcing had something to do with it. No need to through up call centers or R&D buildings in the U.S. if your operators or developers are in Bangalore.
Retail space, on the other hand -- can we see some graphs on that, CR? The big new commercial development around here is a new Honda dealership; talk about bad timing.
Take OC for example..I posted a story from Globest.com that showed office vacanies around 17% right now...what happens in a year when UE rises, when subleases turn into for lease space, when...
I think areas like OC will see vacancy rates near 25-30% in 12-24 months...how many of these properties will cash flow? I would say probably very few...this bust will make the 90's look like a party
What doesn't make sense: Vegas shows currently -39.3% from peak. But the futures show the Vegas trough 2.5 years away, only at -46.8% ??? R | 01.09.09 - 11:04 pm | #
Can't answer your specific question but wanted to point out this little sample to point out REALITY in Vegas and it is much worse than -40% (note the auction is over):
My area has been running 9%+ unemployment for a while. The unoccupied commercial is getting interesting. I really need to start a site to start documenting some of the huge,empty developments around here..
----- OT: Taken from the last thread: mock turtle writes: these aussi?
have to check it out \t mock turtle | \t \t \t \t01.09.09 - 10:00 pm | # ------Yes, the Aussies have a silver dollar (AUD) that is redesigned every year, and IMHO, it is one of the most gorgious silver coins minted year-to-year. I actually buy Kookaburras more as collectibles/treasure pieces than hedge/PM investments. They used to have a face value of 5 AUD (~before 1992?), but they are 1 AUD nowadays. silver kookaburra - Google Search
When Casas is asked to name those transactions that must be restructured, his partner, Neil Luria, pipes up with "any building sold within the last two years." Luria, a Navigant managing director based in Cleveland, is sitting in the lobby lounge of the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel in Manhattan. He gestures outside. "Just walk down the street," he says. "L.A., Chicago, New York, all the major markets have a number of high-profile trophy properties that will go through major turmoil. They are dropping precipitously in value, 40% to 50%."
Also, from the previous thread: yagij writes: \the wanted 25USD per ounce (15.30 was the going rate for physical at nw territorial mint)
yes dick and jane the pm markets are in backwardation mock turtle | 01.09.09 - 10:44 pm | # ----- eBay is the only place where I can get gov't coins for less than 20 USD. I went on a binge back in October & November building up a small stash of SLV bars and coins. I can usually find a magic spot but it requires bidding on an auction of 2-5 coins. I've been able to get Austrian SLV coins for ~14.25/oz, Canadian MLs for ~15.50/oz, American SEs for ~17.75/oz, and Aussie Kookaburras for ~25.50/oz. Getting stamped bars is cheaper--almost the cost of the Austrian coins or less.
As for "junk" silver, the going market is roughly 10-14x face value.
Finally, my experience has been that it is cheaper per USD to just buy silver bullion (bars & coins) than junk silver. However, I would imagine that junk silver would make small day-to-day transactions cheaper and more managable. Hence, the higher premium.
Anonymous writes: \toh my god --citibank is going to have to be propped next week--all hell is breaking loose. Anonymous | 01.09.09 - 11:23 pm | # ----- Details?
mock turtle writes: \tbut out here in the PNW where loggers used to roam, already people are into survival mode and all the coinage has been mock turtle | 01.09.09 - 11:41 pm | # ----- What exactly are you wanting from NWT mint? 1/10/100 oz bars? Coins?
I ask because I've been able to get my hands on bars--still in the plastic packaging--online quite easy. Mix in free/cheap shipping, handling, and insurance, and it is one of the simplest things I've been able to find when I was looking for 5 oz or more (Still not willing to pull the trigger for 100-500oz orders even tho they are cheaper/oz).
I think Christoper Dodd and Barney Fag (as Dick Armey called him on the senate foor) are as culpable as Greenspan. Why are they still there? dr munch | 01.09.09 - 11:51 pm | #
Would you care to elaboarte on that? I seem to remember that Dodd and Frank weren't in decision maker positions except in the past two years. BTW the bubble started to blow at the end of 2005...
"But Toci believes it's the economic downturn that is really doing his city in. "We've lost 58,000 jobs through November, and now Phoenix faces an oversupply of offices," he says. Tenants are going bankrupt, vacating properties or not renewing leases. "Operationally, there are serious weaknesses. Commercial real estate is just starting to tank.""
They broke ground two to three years ago, when "things looked great," says Barksdale. Now they're completed, but deserted. "Those buildings are empty," he says. "Those are see-through buildings."
Atlanta, on the other hand, thought itself relatively immune to commercial real estate pain. Not anymore. "I foresee a lot of commercial deals going sour," says Nicholas Sears, an Atlanta-based partner at Morris, Manning & Martin LLP. "Folks want to sell. They can't sell. Purchasers can't get new financing or assume existing debt, which can't be reduced."
Even a city like Milwaukee, which hardly went crazy during the property boom, is feeling the effects. "Banks have closed down their lending. Ninety percent of commercial lenders are just not lending right now," says Nancy Haggerty, a Milwaukee-based partner at Michael Best & Friedrich LLP. "Even some long-term lenders like life insurance we're just not seeing any more."
I can confirm the life insurance companies are not lending on CRE...who wil finance and/or refinance?
I'm certain that this group has cut back significantly as well, if they play at all.
... According to a report from Real Capital Analytics, foreign investors put in US$13 billion into U.S. real estate in 2004, an increase of more than 60% over 2003. An annual growth of 60% suggests the enormous amount of capital invested in the commercial real estate properties of the United States. The main countries that have shown interest in these properties are Australia, Germany, Canada and Middle East. The financing deals range from joint venture partnerships to preferred equity deals. ...
OT From this evening's news:
Union Pacific has 420 miles of empty boxcars stored on tracks in different parts of the country. Also 253 locomotives.
This made the news because there is is a string of 60 boxcars sitting on otherwise unused track that runs through a residential neighborhood, and the local government it trying to get UP to move them.
"Although I expect a significant decline in office investment over the next few years, the good news is the current boom wasn't anywhere near as large as the previous booms - so hopefully the bust will not be as bad as the early '90s."
I agree, CR, but the problem with this and all the other real estate investments is the 'expectation' that the return will be phenomenal.
This brainwashing aided and abetted by our govt and the Fed will make things interesting in 2009.
This made the news because there is is a string of 60 boxcars sitting on otherwise unused track that runs through a residential neighborhood, and the local government it trying to get UP to move them. emgrasso | Homepage | 01.10.09 - 12:15 am | #
Maybe the gov't can pay graffiti artists as part of the stimulus program.
I'm not sure why there would be any question of why lenders are not lending CRE. Vacancy rates are going to spiral. Those with cash have their eye on one thing these days - picking up the pieces in 24 months. And the pieces (they figure) will be 10 cents, twenty cents, and 33.5 cents on the dollar. There are funds forming now as we speak, syndications of capital, Vulture funds, i call them, based on the plan.
There are funds forming now as we speak, syndications of capital, Vulture funds, i call them, based on the plan. Kondratieff canuk | 01.10.09 - 12:20 am | #
The bigger and more there are of these funds the less likely they are to be able to get them at the discounts they hope for. Simple supply & demand. Those are the forces that make for a sharp 'V' recovery in prices. If that happens it will be quite interesting in a blood letting sort of a way.
Personally I don't the vulture funds are as big or as numerous as the 'reports' but we'll see.
Last thread @ 1042, you wrote about how most medical costs are incurred in the last six months of life.
Yep.
But that report has the advantage of hindsight since the subjects of the report are already dead.
Research out there that physicians are usually unable to tell how long someone has to live until the last few days/hours. So even if it's a terminal illness, many will throw the kitchen sink at it since that's what the society (esp families) expect of them. They just keep working it in hopes of progress until truly apparent that the end is nigh via objective physical findings indicating impending death.
CR, This is the same thing you were missing early on in housing. A boom after no job creation just adds to the prior boom. It is like building an empty building on top of a building. Prior booms at least had some job creation for support. Not this one.
Costar, along with Reis, are hardly credible. I base this on the amount of time i end up spending trying to ensure that the info they publish is accurate, even though they got they info from me in the first place. They pay their researchers nothing and typically hire people w/ little to no CRE experience (particularly in the case of CoStar). Their (Costar) projections could be off by several million SF in either direction and should not be relied upon...
The bigger and more there are of these funds the less likely they are to be able to get them at the discounts they hope for. Simple supply & demand. Those are the forces that make for a sharp 'V' recovery in prices.
I think for that effect, there needs to be first an underlying economy. Speculation is not a self-fulfilling prophesy.
Peter Morici, an economist at the University of Maryland said something today which struck a chord with me: "The economy is not in a self-correcting mode. Recessions self-correct, but depressions do not."
My observation is that this economy is like a plane flying silently at 33,000 feet, with no fuel in the tanks. (Air Canada did that once, took of and ran out of fuel). The pilot is calm as he tells the crew how he intends to land on a frozen lake surface, within range of the glide ratio.
Vulture Funds have money depending on your definition. However consider the total amount of CRE built over the last 6 years. The vast majority was oversupply. I guarantee you, the vulture funds don't have that much money. Either does God.
They just keep working it in hopes of progress until truly apparent that the end is nigh via objective physical findings indicating impending death. homedad43 | Homepage | 01.10.09 - 12:29 am | #
Great Monty Python, btw. They had a great way of honing in on a story and getting at its essence.
No disagreement. I posted the article because on the one hand it makes clear that "Neither in the American private health insurance system nor in the German public health care system is age rationing legal." and that therefore it isn't quite as simple to explain away the cost differential between the two health care systems.
I also thought the conclusion quite interesting in that despite an increase in costs based on proximity of death that "health expenditures for the last year of life decrease with age in Germany as in the US."
homedad43 writes: So even if it's a terminal illness, many will throw the kitchen sink at it since that's what the society (esp families) expect of them.
Not RE, but IMO expectations needs to change. My anecdotal knowledge is that the amount spent on the last few months of life almost always exceeds the amount spent in the entire lifetime prior to that.
It's a waste of societal resources.
If we actually do reach depression stage (whatever that may be) or if the recession is long and deep enough, we as a society may actually have to confront issues like this.
Homedad said
"So even if it's a terminal illness, many will throw the kitchen sink at it since that's what the society (esp families) expect of them. They just keep working it in hopes of progress until truly apparent that the end is nigh via objective physical findings indicating impending death."
I suggest to you that this is driven by fear of lawsuits. I presume that these "heroic" measures have sometimes worked to prolong life. So if it is not done then it is the doctors negligence.
And IIRC, no one, not the families or even the patient can stop it except by signing out AMA.
My wife has recently started a job in Hospice care. A much better way to die.
Reading this blog re: unemployment and I get to feelng like the s has already hit the f. Then, I drive down the road and get first-hand relief: A "Now Hiring" sign up at the local Lowes. Go figure.
My anecdotal knowledge is that the amount spent on the last few months of life almost always exceeds the amount spent in the entire lifetime prior to that. Anonymous | 01.10.09 - 12:51 am | #
The paper has this quote regarding your point:
...Studies of the US medicare population suggest that 27 to 30 percent of all Medicare payments in any given year are spent on the 5 to 6 percent of patients who die during the course of that year (Lubitz, Prihoda 1984). Furthermore, the individual health care expenses of those who die are not evenly distributed over the year but tend to cumulate during the last two months of life. Lubitz and Riley (1993) estimate that about half of an individual's total health care costs are incurred during the last 60 days of life and that 40 percent arise during the last month. ...
most medical costs are incurred in the last six months of life.
Where is also starting to get out of hand is neo-natal intensive care. Not only is the percentages getting higher, but the gestation periods are getting shorter.
These are literally million dollar babies, but politically impossible to resolve.
Didn't know that about Germany vs US but not really surprising given the national attitude towards death. (i.e. Don't die). That is truly a societal indicator.
Anon:
Litigation is probably a factor but not certain as to amount. Also dependent upon the specialty; OB/GYNs and surgeons historically have the highest lawsuit rates of specialties and with those two, not certain how much plays into the last six months scenario.
plschwartz:
Good for your spouse. Mine does also and I couldn't begin to do it...
I remember once in the wrecked economy of BC, '70's recession I landed a job. The company manger told me on hiring day there had been 300 plus resumes. I felt like i won a lottery, i was exhilarated for months by my good fortune. I think in 2009 and 2010, there will be 3,000 resumes for that same job.
My observation is that this economy is like a plane flying silently at 33,000 feet, with no fuel in the tanks. (Air Canada did that once, took of and ran out of fuel). The pilot is calm as he tells the crew how he intends to land on a frozen lake surface, within range of the glide ratio.
Kondratieff canuk | 01.10.09 - 12:39 am | #
Except that the plane is full of engineers and they've been told by their superiors that the plane must be converted into a helicopter while it's still in flight, or everyone on board will die.
to demystify that - the economy has to be radically reshaped, dynamically, and without bringing the velocity of money to zero in the process.
I remember once in the wrecked economy of BC, '70's recession I landed a job. The company manger told me on hiring day there had been 300 plus resumes. I felt like i won a lottery, i was exhilarated for months by my good fortune. I think in 2009 and 2010, there will be 3,000 resumes for that same job. Kondratieff canuk | 01.10.09 - 1:02 am | #
Point taken (if directed at me), but I made a point of the LOWES hanging a sign. First, (no offense to ANYONE here) I don't think Lowes is cherry-picking the best of the best. Spend the least to get a warm body in a uniform. Second, in an economic climate like this, applications for low-level jobs like these should be up enough that companies don't have to hang a sign on the street.
That sign represented a contradiction to me. It forces me to check my premise.
Reading this blog re: unemployment and I get to feelng like the s has already hit the f. Then, I drive down the road and get first-hand relief: A "Now Hiring" sign up at the local Lowes. Go figure. RockyR | 01.10.09 - 12:57 am | #
Stop in and ask the manager (1) how many hours they need to fill and (2) how many applicants did they get.
My son works at Mall of America - he is down to less than 20 hours a week right now but feels good about that - others were cut to less than 10 hours. I asked him why they even keep them around with that little work scheduled - his reply was they were the 'bench' in case others quit - they will then have trained staff they can move in to those slots immediately (move them up from 10 hours to say 20 hours and they are already trained ready to go). He said they expect a number of these folks to quit and NONE have so far. They are all hanging in there hoping the others leave or business picks up so they can return to 30-40 hour weeks... you couldn't get away with that if the job market was better the folks doing 10 hours a week would be long gone if there were other opportunities.
skizye - first of all, congratulations. Second, don't worry about a thing. By the time your child is 15 or 20 years old, the economy will be booming again.
No point intended, just relating to yours with an add-on to the image you created. It made me think back to the value of a job then, and what it will soon become.
That sign represented a contradiction to me. It forces me to check my premise. RockyR | 01.10.09 - 1:06 am | #
Checking premises is always a good idea. Usually confirms what you already knew but in an 'exception proves the rule' sort of way ONCE you dig into the details. Dig in and let us know.
Based on what I've observed around town, at work, in the media, and in the conversations people are having, we've crossed a threshold. We've reached critical mass and events are speeding up.
Conjure's clock may be running 2 or 3 seconds slow.
They are all hanging in there hoping the others leave or business picks up so they can return to 30-40 hour weeks... you couldn't get away with that if the job market was better the folks doing 10 hours a week would be long gone if there were other opportunities.
dryfly | 01.10.09 - 1:07 am
Dry,
My youngest son does iron work here in Socal. Pretty much the same thing. The only guys getting more than a day or two a week are foremen. For a young man he is getting quite the free education. The older guys he works (WORKED?) with consider this the end of the line. No construction = destruction of their lifestyle
Based on what I've observed around town, at work, in the media, and in the conversations people are having, we've crossed a threshold. We've reached critical mass and events are speeding up. Feckless Ness | 01.10.09 - 1:11 am | #
I had a long conversation with a J6P recently who admitted to me that he was completely "panicked". He had paid off his CC debt, changed his health plan, shifted some savings around, and cut all discretionary spending. That impressed me that a pretty main-street (not finance geek-type) was keenly aware of our problems. He went on to say two other interesting things: 1.) in his we'll know more around March or April about how bad things will get and 2.) should we "make it" (i.e., he keeps his job, etc.) until June, then he's reopening the spending spigot (including a vacation, new cars, etc.)
Paul Krugman: The Obama gap - The New York Times
Paul Krugman: The Obama gap
The bottom line is that the Obama plan is unlikely to close more than half of the looming output gap, and could easily end up doing less than a third of the job.
001(Unrated) writes: \tskizye - first of all, congratulations. Second, don't worry about a thing. By the time your child is 15 or 20 years old, the economy will be booming again. 001 | 01.10.09 - 1:10 am | #
Thank you! This is kid number two-- hoping for a boy this time. Yes the economy will be "booming" then and in preparation our 5 year-old daughter has grown a Chia pet this past week to hone her harvesting skills and will next be trained in firearms.
The bottom line is that the Obama plan is unlikely to close more than half of the looming output gap, and could easily end up doing less than a third of the job. FFDIC | 01.10.09 - 1:16 am | #
Feckless Ness, there was a shift in tone this week, even before Obama's speech. People are talking double digit unemployment now without fear of people scoffing. The fact is, no one bloody has a clue - no one. We are all of us flying in the fog, instrumentation is spinning wildly. There is no 'North' in this situation - no compass. But, as the Bank of Canada Gov prophetically said yesterday, "(but)..end it will."
My youngest son does iron work here in Socal. Pretty much the same thing. The only guys getting more than a day or two a week are foremen. For a young man he is getting quite the free education. The older guys he works (WORKED?) with consider this the end of the line. No construction = destruction of their lifestyle Now is a Great time to..... | 01.10.09 - 1:15 am | #
In the 80s I met a welder who started a blacksmith & stained glass window biz... he and his wife lived above the store... he had gone from full benefit $20/hr union iron monger to a thin soup 'entrepreneur'... there was no iron work except for a few pipe fitter jobs where you needed certs. The guy made beautiful iron rail fences & windows but really was almost starving - he was 50 or so looking at a very long 'not quite retirement'. It will happen again but the paper pushers of this generation won't be able to makes fences or windows.
On a similar theme - I live near Best Buy's corp HQ... reports are they are asking 4000 administrative & mgmt types to take voluntary early retirement or a buy out [that is everywhere not just at HQ]... so far only 500 have stepped up. Nest wave won't be voluntary. These folk can't hammer metal either.
You know, I can really get into the guns, beans and rice thing, but I've got to say I think many of us a giving short shrift to most of the people.
The posters on this board are not the only smart ones walking the Earth. When I see posts expressing 'surprise' that some dude they talked to is aware of things amazes me. Please note that there are many smart and aware folk among us that do not post, read or perhaps even share the mad max outlook.
Out of all this mess will rise some incredible things....I hope
skizye - I was going to say, in the meantime your child(ren) will get the education of a lifetime. It can only serve them well going forward. 001 | 01.10.09 - 1:23 am | #
On a similar theme - I live near Best Buy's corp HQ... reports are they are asking 4000 administrative & mgmt types to take voluntary early retirement or a buy out [that is everywhere not just at HQ]... so far only 500 have stepped up. Nest wave won't be voluntary. These folk can't hammer metal either.
I hear you. They are one of our customers. Honestly, their management has been very proactive in taking care of these guys. But your numbers match with what I'm hearing. NO ONE wants to voluntarily leave their position right now. Their offer was blanket. ANYONE who wanted to go would get a decent deal.....but where would they go?
At my company we were supposed to hire 1,500 people last year and we have the damndest time finding qualified people. Engineering is a lost skill that noone has interest in anymore. Anyone engineers looking for jobs here?
'Being smart' should be no barrier to sharing information. Life is a collection of experiences. None of us can experience everything, or know everything. Out of the mouth of babes...
He says its not enough...but doesn't say how much would be. Average Joe | Homepage | 01.10.09 - 1:23 am | #
That is my beef with him as well - nor does he say what or where it should be spent on. There is a world of difference between 'stimulus' used to build future prosperity around (like the spin off gains from the space race) and mindless consumption (a lot of Japan's was wasted on bridges to nowhere).
Congo, hit by a currency slide and falling demand for its minerals in a global downturn, will seek an emergency loan from the International Monetary Fund to halt a rapidly worsening financial crisis, the government said.
In a statement released late on Thursday, the mineral-rich but cash-strapped Democratic Republic of Congo said it had raised key interest rates to 40 percent from 28 percent to halt a slide in its Congolese franc currency. ...
Usually when your instrumentation is ga-ga, it means you are upside-down in a flat spin. Not good. Yet if you push down on the stick, instead of pull up, you just might save yourself. Unless. of course, you're already too close to the ground. Not sure how this applies to economics, tho -
I've got to say I think many of us a giving short shrift to most of the people. Now is a Great time to..... | 01.10.09 - 1:26 am | #
Hardly. If the masses were so smart there wouldn't be bubbles in the first place. "People go mad in crowds, but they come to their senses one at a time."
I ALMOST said the same thing. They are also a customer. So many good people there under the upper level management. Still hope for them, though. We will see this coming week. Do or die time...the 16th, I think
There is a world of difference between 'stimulus' used to build future prosperity around (like the spin off gains from the space race) and mindless consumption (a lot of Japan's was wasted on bridges to nowhere). dryfly | 01.10.09 - 1:32 am | #
I agree ... a space race sized program to get us off the middle-east tit is a good idea. If that happened, who knows ... maybe the world could become dependant on us. I doubt it though ... the US has forgotten how to produce anything of value anymore
At my company we were supposed to hire 1,500 people last year and we have the damndest time finding qualified people. Engineering is a lost skill that noone has interest in anymore. Anyone engineers looking for jobs here? skizye | 01.10.09 - 1:31 am | #
To tell you how bad it is - I have my resume on Monster... I'm always looking for good contract marketing work (industrial stuff). But years ago I used to work in operations as a chemical engineer at ethanol & fructose plants (VERY large operations)... this was the 80s. I keep that experience on my resume because we were exposed to so much stuff - engineering, start ups, operations & line supervision. That was almost 25 years ago...
Yesterday I got an email from a head hunter asking me to apply for a plant mgr job running one of these plants - cited my current mgmt experience and past plant operations experience. All I could think was 'if they are looking at people who haven't worked in this business for 25 years - they are in a world of hurt - there must be a huge shortage of those kinds of engineers'... BTW the pay wasn't too bad $130K to $150K w/ additional bonus living in a small city where houses rarely exceed $150K.
A new energy source would generate jobs across the board -- engineering & science, software, materials, construction, etc. I still believe the US could define the next century that way, provided we put our priorities straight on dedicated ourselves to it.
Besides, necessity is the mother of invention, right?
Okay, FFDIC and mp usually aren't that blunt in their respective comments, so you got my attention also.
All I see is Morgan Stanley negotiating this weekend to buy Citi's Smith Barney and some suggestions that Citi needs to downsize and may have some serious balance sheet issues since it needed an extra $20B from the government beyond the initial $25B.
Is this all just a smokescreen for what's really happening? Inquiring minds and all that jazz.
Yesterday I got an email from a head hunter asking me to apply for a plant mgr job running one of these plants - cited my current mgmt experience and past plant operations experience. All I could think was 'if they are looking at people who haven't worked in this business for 25 years - they are in a world of hurt - there must be a huge shortage of those kinds of engineers'... BTW the pay wasn't too bad $130K to $150K w/ additional bonus living in a small city where houses rarely exceed $150K. dryfly | 01.10.09 - 1:42 am | #
Well I work for an aerospace contractor in L.A. so you aren't going to find $150k homes just yet. They say 50% of the workforce in aerospace is eligble to retire in the next 5-10 years. There is a huge age generational gap between those guys and myself (I'm 29) ... these companies aren't going to be able to perform here shortly due to lack of knowledge and lack of skilled college graduates. I doubt those boomers are going to be able to afford to retire though. So far, aerospace has been sheltered from the economy downturn, but I suspect that will change in the next 2 years.
@dryfly - on a Friday night? Is there a market open? If the rumor were false and represented book-talking, why bother? It'd be discounted by the futures opening on Sunday -- what's the point?
Not that it couldn't be false just to keep all of us from sleeping tonight...
something big is going on at citi, wsj calls it "seperating certain divisions". I do not like the sound of it.. the official story is a bit too straightforward. Something nasty is cooking.. I could be wrong.. but something about the official rationale just does not sound right..
I wouldn't jump on the troll bandwagon just yet. Whenever FFDIC mentions something of real importance, he usually just retreats into the shadows just about immediately. This might be awfully confidential.
Rumors abound about Citi and this one just could be true.
" so you aren't going to find $150k homes just yet."
there are many dozens, perhaps a hundred+ of SFRs at that price in south central, all an easy commute to LAX. would the average professional want to live there is the question.
FFDIC writes: The FDIC canceled all closings in preparation for Citi's collapse and fear runs could begin Monday. FFDIC | 01.10.09 - 1:34 am | # ----- Can I haz some details or linkz plz? I'm hearing about Citi problems, and all I've seen is the MS joint venture.
Is there some between-the-line reading that I'm missing or is there an article I haven't seen?
I realize the Yahoo message boards aren't exactly a fountain of truth, but wrt C, the quote "citigroup forced to sell its kidney for cash" sounds about right... Government finally wielding the knife of power? When something that's too big to fail is destined to fail, time to slice off anything that can survive independently in order to bring the failure down to a manageable size?
At my company we were supposed to hire 1,500 people last year and we have the damndest time finding qualified people. Engineering is a lost skill that noone has interest in anymore. Anyone engineers looking for jobs here?
skizye | 01.10.09 - 1:31 am | # [kill][hide comment]
Skizye, in two weeks I I'll know if I'm going to be next. Last month the let all the technicians go.
Fortunately I've been a regular here since late 2004 so I'm well prepared. Summer vacation, Woo Hoo! Give me a call after labor day...
Well I work for an aerospace contractor in L.A. so you aren't going to find $150k homes just yet. They say 50% of the workforce in aerospace is eligble to retire in the next 5-10 years. There is a huge age generational gap between those guys and myself (I'm 29) ... these companies aren't going to be able to perform here shortly due to lack of knowledge and lack of skilled college graduates. I doubt those boomers are going to be able to afford to retire though. So far, aerospace has been sheltered from the economy downturn, but I suspect that will change in the next 2 years.
skizye |
Skizye..interesting. Work for a smallish software joint. Phone is ringing off the hook these days from customers that have been burned by 23 year old 'senior' folks. I do know that we haven't hired any youngun's for the last 24 months. ALL have been older(over 30!) men & women. Experience is king?
DRE brokers can broker to DRE, CFL, RML, state chartered and federally chartered institutions
CFL brokers can only broker to CFL
RML brokers can only broker to RML, state chartered and federally chartered institutions
I doubt those boomers are going to be able to afford to retire though. skizye | 01.10.09 - 1:55 am | #
Bingo. Very few will and even fewer in places like LA than out here in el cheapo fly over. I've been telling anyone who will listen that most of 'us' will die with our boots on - you 'youngsters' will find us dead in our cubicles and toss our stiff bodies on the mail cart like in Monty Python's 'Bring out your dead' skit from 'The Holy Grail'.
Until then the engineering shortage is a bit premature.
And to add to the credibility issue. The first link in this thread that FFDIC posted was from the Chron. As a Texan he often posts link from the Chron or from the Morning News. He obviously participated in this thread.
mp writes: \tI think it's a canard. mp | 01.10.09 - 1:51 am | # ----- It may be, but FFDIC is the 2nd or 3rd person to cite seeing some super OMFGWTFBBQ!!1! news or near future events tied to Citi tonight. While the previous commenters were "anonymous" or some variation of that name, there is enough credible news tied to Citi (See MS, Smith Barney, Rubin's Departure, etc) that I'm not willing to discount it until someone somewhere reliably dismisses it.
It would be foolhardy to not take such a thought seriously.
Hmmm... co-worker of Neil's? Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) | 01.10.09 - 2:05 am | #
It is possible ... I think we live in the same area (South Bay) and both work for aerospace. I haven't talked to him directly so not sure if we are at the same place. I have my popcorn though.
most of 'us' will die with our boots on dryfly | 01.10.09 - 2:04 am | #
Thats funny. When I got out of school and started working in Palmdale (of all places)...within the first 3 months...3 old guys decided to "retire" in their cubicle. I knew what to look for in aerospace from then on.
Kondratieff canuk writes: \tRE: Lets assume for 5 sec that the rumor plays out for real. What then? I cannot comprehend the impact. Kondratieff canuk | 01.10.09 - 2:08 am | # ----- Cash run? Market Circuitbreakers? USD/Treasuries dive-bomb?
Something is moving and shaking, and there is a reason that all of this news came out after the market closed today. Maybe my tinfoil hat is on too tightly tonight, but these people aren't stupid. I remember some comments talking about the FDIC moving into Citi offices in CA back in October and November on a Friday but nothing ever seemed to come out of that rumor?
It might also explain why Bush wants the second part of TARP so urgently...
RE | 01.10.09 - 2:12 am | #
Ding Ding....that was my thought also, putting the pieces together. Someone knows something...why would the President beg for $350 billion with 10 days left???
At my company we were supposed to hire 1,500 people last year and we have the damndest time finding qualified people. Engineering is a lost skill that noone has interest in anymore. Anyone engineers looking for jobs here?
skizye | 01.10.09 - 1:31 am | # [kill][hide comment]
Skizye, I expect I'll find out if they close down my division in a few weeks. But since I've been a regular here since late 2004 I'm well prepared. Give me a call in the fall. Summer vacation, woo hoo!
why would the President beg for $350 billion with 10 days left???
This was explained two threads down. Because Congress has 15 days to reject the request but no means to approve, a preemptive request by Bush would allow Obama faster access to the funds.
In other words, if Geithner went to Congress on the 21st, the earliest the Treasury would get the funds is 15 days later. Bush asking for it means on Monday means the funds come in 15 days later, well after he's gone. Bush can not use the funds.
Question is, what are the Republicans getting in return?
Ding Ding....that was my thought also, putting the pieces together. Someone knows something...why would the President beg for $350 billion with 10 days left??? crispy&cole | Homepage | 01.10.09 - 2:14 am | #
Would also explain the silence for Pelosi et. al....
[Hank drings up Nancy]
Hank: "You know that bit where GWB said it was 'going down'?"
Nancy: [pregnant pause] ..."yes?"
Hank: "Well it's goin' down... we're taking the dough.... got any complaints?"
[sound of body hitting the floor - phone goes dead]
bgates writes: as if they know anything - all fractional reserve banks are just one stock panic away from the abyss. bgates | 01.10.09 - 2:19 am | # ----- If they are moving in to protect it, they will know about it.
Granted, they won't know what is going to happen until there is a body at the scene. We are just discussing if there is now a body and if not, what would be our response if there was one?
Skizye, I expect I'll find out if they close down my division in a few weeks. But since I've been a regular here since late 2004 I'm well prepared. Give me a call in the fall. Summer vacation, woo hoo! \t EEngineer | \t \t \t \t01.10.09 - 2:16 am | #
Then Obama should shut up, and stop scheduling news conferences and making public statements. He's certainly acting like he's already president... Smartass | 01.10.09 - 2:25 am | #
Agreed and I'm no Bush fan... we'll have Obama fatigue before we even get a President Obama at this rate.
Don't understand the panic over what C will do. Who cares? This is all part of the master plan. Remember: The taxpayer could see a profit from the TARP and C has taken a big part of that! No worries.
re: Citi Isn't Citi one of the US Banks that has more depositors overseas than domestically? Would it play out like some reverse Iceland in that a foreign country/countries make a run on Citi's deposits in which would cause problems for US side of the equation?
What would happen if Japan, Korea, et al decided to pull their deposits and investments out of Citi's foreign operations?
Don't understand the panic over what C will do. Who cares? This is all part of the master plan. Remember: The taxpayer could see a profit from the TARP and C has taken a big part of that! No worries. sdtfs | 01.10.09 - 2:31 am | #
Probably right - we own C already right? It really is all good. With that assurance I'm going to bed & have nothing but happy dreams from now on...
I want to get the update on that news story a few threads back about the blogger arrested in South Korean for posting doom and gloom about the economy.
I can see the headline now: Anonymous Blogger's Identity Theft on Calculated Risk Causes CitiBank to Collapse.
citigroup is old news. keep an eye on toaster salesman lewis -- merrill deal can't complete until government undertakes substantial charity to countrywide
meanwhile pillow castle builder sir dimon is a knight without a horse and he now realizes the credit card delinquency army emerging from the forest. at least he got wamu inside the gates before the trouble started
Analagous to Helicopter Ben and the U.S. economy? LOL
"The canister full of cash was parachuted onto the Sirius Star .... however things went badly wrong for the pirates soon after the drop - they squabbled over how to split the money and then a wave washed off their getaway boat and drowned five of them."
"We got five dead bodies and we are still searching for the missing one. The waves were disastrous,' said Farah Osman, an associate of the gang. It is not known what happened to the money or those who survived."
Citi on Its Way to Breakup? « naked capitalism
Here is some naked cap Citi stuff from the WSJ firewall. No one has ever used my CR handle to my knowledge. They don't dare! The Maria line was pricless. Thanks for that! Let me briefly attempt to clear up a couple of things. I'm not taking questions tonite so don't waste your time asking. I'm NOT drinking. Bank closings are on hold for some reason. Take your pick of the reasons and it explains no action yesterday in CA. I should have written another less flaming word instead of using the word collapse. It is likely to be seen as (and is being written about in the media as) a forced breakup. The sell off of whatever in this market of horrors (and also noted at naked cap) may prove difficult or impossible to move into substantial complicance with the regulator(s). The regulators are making big public and non-public moves now on Citi and it means to me TIME HAS RUN OUT. Call it what you want but if the public panics even a little Citi may collapse. I hope this clears some of your questions and concerns. I want to keep my mostly good record clean.
<Pre-TARP> Congressman Number 1: Should we just give him the money with no oversight? Congressman Number 2: Why? What could go wrong? Congressman Number 3: I dunno, . . . Let's give him the money and find out! All: Sounds like a plan!
It seems that WSJ is saying that Citi cannot make any big moves with OCC and FDIC approval.. this after more than a third of a trillion... ya... not good.
U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman and his wife, Laurie, have refinanced or changed the terms of their mortgage on their St. Paul house 12 times in the past 14 years.
Ramsey County property tax records indicate the Colemans have assumed greater and greater debt, increasing from a 30-year $172,900 mortgage in 1994 to a 30-year $775,000 mortgage the couple took out in March 2007.
Their house on St. Paul's Osceola Avenue has a 2009 estimated market value of $615,000, according to property tax records, suggesting they may owe substantially more than the property is worth.
The extent of the Colemans' refinancing, first reported Thursday by the online political website Politico, comes to light as Coleman faces continued scrutiny over his personal finances. Allegations have been made in two lawsuits that multimillionaire Nasser Kazeminy attempted to steer $75,000 to Coleman last year from an underwater services company in Texas that Kazeminy controls. In addition, Coleman has also faced questions about his living arrangements in Washington and his relationship with businessman and Republican insider Jeff Larson, who owns the million-dollar Capitol Hill row house where Coleman rents a bedroom and bath.
Franken was declared winner and Coleman is litigating. I volunteered for the recount on behalf of the Franken campaign. The recount was done fairly and openly.
Basel Too(Good) writes: \tCan someone translate these for me?
From the CA Depts of Corporation and Real Estate:
DRE brokers can broker to DRE, CFL, RML, state chartered and federally chartered institutions CFL brokers can only broker to CFL RML brokers can only broker to RML, state chartered and federally chartered institutions
What are DRE, CFL, and RML? \t Basel Too | \t \t \t \t01.10.09 - 2:04 am | # I saw sportsfan already stabbed at this.
DRE is the California Department of Real Estate, Sorry. Page not found. Mortgage brokers under this license also can be real estate brokers. 2 classes - broker and salesperson. A broker can 'hang' his license at up to 3 companies, whereas a salesperson is restricted to a single company. Educational requirements exist but are minimal
CFL is a California Finance Lender, under the Department of Corporations. These licenses are held only by the business owner. Employees are NOT required to be licensed. Many of the fly-by-night boiler room mortgage brokers operated under CFL licenses during the boom, as there are no educational requirements required at all.
I'm not entirely sure, but I think RML is a Residential Mortgage Lender, typically operating under oversight by the OTC. Think of Countrywide, or individual banks. No educational requirement required, and the financial institution holds the license. Back in 03 or 04, Wells Fargo successfully sued the State of California to be able to operate under the less restrictive national supervision of the OTC rather than under the state's CFL licensing, IIRC. Again, no formal educational requirement for mortgage lenders here. The big players and guilty parties operated under RML provisions - CFC, Wamu, Wachovia/World, DSL, First Fed - that is, the POA lenders.
Not that DRE licensees are anywhere close to responsible, but in my experience the greatest malfeasance occured under "supervision" by CFL and bank (RML) licensees.
Few top government officials, whether elected or appointed, have managed
to emerge as unscathed from a half dozen years in the Washington, D.C.
spotlight as former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin. And Rubin did better
than escape without scratches -- he ended his term of office with his
image enhanced.
Considering how few jobs were created in the last 8 years, this office cycle will probably leave us with similar peak vacancy rates as the last ones. Hate to be pessimistic, but...
Munis next to collapse. Retail investors have no lobby:
The $2.6 trillion muni market is the last bastion of mom-and-pop investors, who arguably require tougher regulatory protection than the institutional investors that dominate the stock and corporate bond markets. Households own more than a third of all municipal bonds directly, and even more through mutual funds. The typical municipal bond trade is for just $25,000.
Russian gas still not flowing to the EU and eastern Europe. Knock-on effects are not entirely clear, but in some of the most economically fragile eastern European countries the gas shut-off is akin to an instant depression in terms of economic activity.
Some other second order effects may be beginning to emerge:
European countries relying on ad hoc deals as gas dispute endures
14:41 Sat 10 Jan 2009 - Clive Leviev-Sawyer
Countries in Central and South Eastern Europe are wheeling and dealing to come up with mutual agreements on natural gas supplies pending a resolution to the Russia Ukraine dispute that has cut off the flow of Gazprom supply.
The 15 countries affected by the January 6 2009 cutoff are Austria, Bulgaria, Bosnia, Croatia, the Czech Republic, France, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Macedonia, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia and Turkey. Supplies to Germany and Poland also decreased.
What would happen if they put Bush in one of those dollar bill chambers where he has 60 seconds to stuff his pockets with fan blown money and they dumped $350bn into it?
OT to Morocco...took middle kid to see Tom Cruise's "Valkyrie" last night - good movie and engendered decent history lesson.
Homedad43 | Homepage | 01.10.09 - 8:34 am | #
Pinewood derby is cool, my dad was my pack leader in cub scouts and had a tradition of always making a car that would race the pack winners. Dad was quite the craftsman and the cars were always extremely cool, but slow, so no dnager of showing up the winning kid. However, not sure allowing your kid to put swastika decals on the car is a good thing. Glad you took him for a history lesson. Have not seen Valkarie yet, but might also want to make him see Schindlers List. Another good history lesson in the theatres now is "Milk". Not as well known a story, but an important one.
1 currency soon [yogi] | 01.10.09 - 3:19 am | #
it is amusing how people think much of remote flyover country is safe. Sioux Falls is chock full of financial services, credit card processing, payday loan centers, anything else that can take advantage of the SD bank-friendly usury laws. it is subprime credit heaven. Citi etc are major employers and no doubt a huge part of the tax base of the state comes from these operations. nothing would replace them either, if/when it all falls apart.
Nothing personal against those fine Americans, but corporate flight to cheap labor and business friendly regulatory scheme is what it is.
1 currency soon [yogi] | 01.10.09 - 1:03 pm | #
exactly. and no small amount of backroom politics I'm sure. loss of banking sector would crater the local economy of course. healthcare, ag products, some manufacturing, colleges/vo-techs would probably survive. also local community banks and credit unions. would not be pretty, regardless.
Can anyone explain this anomaly with S&P Case Shiller Futures data?
What doesn't make sense:
Vegas shows currently -39.3% from peak.
But the futures show the Vegas trough 2.5 years away, only at -46.8% ???
Same issue for Miami, etc.
Is there some mistake with the futures data?
See the data at Mish, for example:
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Case Shiller and CAR Analysis December 2008 Release
"the good news is the current boom wasn't anywhere near as large as the previous booms - so hopefully the bust will not be as bad as the early '90s."
most of the offices from then is probobly still in place? plus the recent boom?
Barley, reposting from last thread in case you missed it. What do you mean by crooked?
Is it a government thing or a private business thing?
Does it apply to Teck Cominco, EA Games, Lions Gate Films, Ballard, ...
~ ~ ~ ~
Barley writes:
lucifer writes:
Meanwhile in Canada.. Vancouver might go broke without federal help.
You know months ago I said this would happen and some here said I was crazy. Point is people in Vancouver are STUPID and the governments ARE corrupt. So let them eat cake. No-Spine-Bastards...
(sorry never flew off the handel like this...just that British Columbia is such a crooked place to do business)
sorry, Barley just answered in the old thread. back to office investment discussion
CRE link (on topic):
The coming commercial crash (The Deal Magazine)
@mock:
NWT mint is too slow. I like Apmex. They've got silver eagles with a 3-week wait, and maples right away for about $15...
"Although I expect a significant decline in office investment over the next few years, the good news is the current boom wasn't anywhere near as large as the previous booms - so hopefully the bust will not be as bad as the early '90s."
Not sure if I agree...maybe the building was not as large, but the leverage was of such a great magnitude that the amount will be on par with that last bust....throw in 11% UE and...
from last thread: all religion is just unfunded insurance.Like derivatives and such
C&C - spot on! Spec may have been larger as a % vs the size.
"throw in 11% UE"
and a trend towards telecommuting
The bubble economy has a few yards to go before the collapse.
My humble model fortells bad things, ahead. Run up to the inauguration then a complete collapse of the pretention that stocks are worth anything.
Wall Street is impotent. Three montb CD ?
Maybe not so much a boom in office space -- I wonder if the rise in outsourcing had something to do with it. No need to through up call centers or R&D buildings in the U.S. if your operators or developers are in Bangalore.
Retail space, on the other hand -- can we see some graphs on that, CR? The big new commercial development around here is a new Honda dealership; talk about bad timing.
Run up to the inauguration then a complete collapse of the pretention that stocks are worth anything.
Sandi Rubinspan | 01.09.09 - 11:19 pm | #
That is what my crystal ball tells me as well. I have yet to see any evidence to refute that eventuality.
"Does it apply to Teck Cominco, EA Games, Lions Gate Films, Ballard..."
It is about getting the sheeple to fund and pay for the whole.
Otherwise
Teck Cominco - like it, valuation is high
EA - lost their creative juice and have issuse w/ CA vs. Canada
Ballard - wtf knows
Lions Gate Films - conflict of interest no comment
"throw in 11% UE"
and a trend towards telecommuting
Plus, just the construction of new office space says nothing about the upgrading of existing office space (or is that covered in the 2nd graph?).
Take OC for example..I posted a story from Globest.com that showed office vacanies around 17% right now...what happens in a year when UE rises, when subleases turn into for lease space, when...
I think areas like OC will see vacancy rates near 25-30% in 12-24 months...how many of these properties will cash flow? I would say probably very few...this bust will make the 90's look like a party
oh my god --citibank is going to have to be propped next week--all hell is breaking loose.
Is there some mistake with the futures data?
R | 01.09.09 - 11:04 pm | #
Umm, that would be a market, based on the opinions and WAGs of a bunch of people, most of them not too bright - sort of like the stock market?
only the most optimistic pollyannas are invested in 3 month cds!!
all hell is breaking loose.
Anonymous | 01.09.09 - 11:23 pm | #
Rubin leaving in disgrace...
What doesn't make sense:
Vegas shows currently -39.3% from peak.
But the futures show the Vegas trough 2.5 years away, only at -46.8% ???
R | 01.09.09 - 11:04 pm | #
Can't answer your specific question but wanted to point out this little sample to point out REALITY in Vegas and it is much worse than -40% (note the auction is over):
http://www.bid4assets.com/auction/index.cfm?auctionid=399597
crispy&cole | Homepage | 01.09.09 - 11:21 pm | #
My area has been running 9%+ unemployment for a while. The unoccupied commercial is getting interesting. I really need to start a site to start documenting some of the huge,empty developments around here..
Chris
-----
OT: Taken from the last thread:
mock turtle writes:
these aussi?
have to check it out
\t mock turtle | \t \t \t \t01.09.09 - 10:00 pm | #
------Yes, the Aussies have a silver dollar (AUD) that is redesigned every year, and IMHO, it is one of the most gorgious silver coins minted year-to-year. I actually buy Kookaburras more as collectibles/treasure pieces than hedge/PM investments. They used to have a face value of 5 AUD (~before 1992?), but they are 1 AUD nowadays.
silver kookaburra - Google Search
I really need to start a site to start documenting some of the huge,empty developments around here..
Chris
Cobradriver | 01.09.09 - 11:30 pm | #
Please do...Max has done that in Sacramento, Ca and it tells the story in a way that charts can not. Maybe I will do that here also.
crispy&cole writes:
CRE link (on topic):
When Casas is asked to name those transactions that must be restructured, his partner, Neil Luria, pipes up with "any building sold within the last two years." Luria, a Navigant managing director based in Cleveland, is sitting in the lobby lounge of the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel in Manhattan. He gestures outside. "Just walk down the street," he says. "L.A., Chicago, New York, all the major markets have a number of high-profile trophy properties that will go through major turmoil. They are dropping precipitously in value, 40% to 50%."
9%+ unemployment for a while.
Cobradriver | 01.09.09 - 11:30 pm | #
West Virginia? Detroit? Cleveland?
Anonymous writes:
oh my god --citibank is going to have
As many here will attest I follow C in a very anal fashion ...
Please elaborate or control yourself
only the most optimistic pollyannas are invested in 3 month cds
How so, you POS ?
max flatow, and 001 from previous thread
thanks for the direction
yeah NW territorial mint wants 1/3rd money up front, and will only contract for a minim purchase of 75 ounces with a mid april delivery date
yikes!
ight all...gotta go
yagij
thanks
yeah saw your response previous but x2 is twice as good
ill try some dealers up north tomorrow
but out here in the PNW where loggers used to roam, already people are into survival mode and all the coinage has been soaked up... it seems
Bush Prepares Request for Rest Of Bailout Funds
If Congress Votes Down Measure, Veto Power Could Come Into Play
Bush Prepares Request for Rest Of Bailout Funds - washingtonpost.com
Also, from the previous thread:
yagij writes:
\the wanted 25USD per ounce (15.30 was the going rate for physical at nw territorial mint)
yes dick and jane the pm markets are in backwardation
mock turtle | 01.09.09 - 10:44 pm | #
-----
eBay is the only place where I can get gov't coins for less than 20 USD. I went on a binge back in October & November building up a small stash of SLV bars and coins. I can usually find a magic spot but it requires bidding on an auction of 2-5 coins. I've been able to get Austrian SLV coins for ~14.25/oz, Canadian MLs for ~15.50/oz, American SEs for ~17.75/oz, and Aussie Kookaburras for ~25.50/oz. Getting stamped bars is cheaper--almost the cost of the Austrian coins or less.
As for "junk" silver, the going market is roughly 10-14x face value.
Finally, my experience has been that it is cheaper per USD to just buy silver bullion (bars & coins) than junk silver. However, I would imagine that junk silver would make small day-to-day transactions cheaper and more managable. Hence, the higher premium.
\t yagij | \t \t \t \t01.09.09 - 11:40 pm | #
Why would they let Bush have anything ? Am I missing something ?
Anonymous writes:
\toh my god --citibank is going to have to be propped next week--all hell is breaking loose.
Anonymous | 01.09.09 - 11:23 pm | #
-----
Details?
Barley, good night
mock turtle writes:
\tbut out here in the PNW where loggers used to roam, already people are into survival mode and all the coinage has been
mock turtle | 01.09.09 - 11:41 pm | #
-----
What exactly are you wanting from NWT mint? 1/10/100 oz bars? Coins?
I ask because I've been able to get my hands on bars--still in the plastic packaging--online quite easy. Mix in free/cheap shipping, handling, and insurance, and it is one of the simplest things I've been able to find when I was looking for 5 oz or more (Still not willing to pull the trigger for 100-500oz orders even tho they are cheaper/oz).
I think Christoper Dodd and Barney Fag (as Dick Armey called him on the senate foor) are as culpable as Greenspan. Why are they still there?
yagij, thanks for the ideas
good luck
im with ya about having something for small day to day transactions cheaper and manageable
mock turtle signing off
re: crispy's CRE link (on topic):
Thanks for that. It will be fascinating/devastating (maybe a little entertaining?) to watch that unravel.
Yikes.
all real estate is local but all depressions are global
I think Christoper Dodd and Barney Fag (as Dick Armey called him on the senate foor) are as culpable as Greenspan. Why are they still there?
dr munch | 01.09.09 - 11:51 pm | #
Would you care to elaboarte on that? I seem to remember that Dodd and Frank weren't in decision maker positions except in the past two years. BTW the bubble started to blow at the end of 2005...
"But Toci believes it's the economic downturn that is really doing his city in. "We've lost 58,000 jobs through November, and now Phoenix faces an oversupply of offices," he says. Tenants are going bankrupt, vacating properties or not renewing leases. "Operationally, there are serious weaknesses. Commercial real estate is just starting to tank.""
They broke ground two to three years ago, when "things looked great," says Barksdale. Now they're completed, but deserted. "Those buildings are empty," he says. "Those are see-through buildings."
Atlanta, on the other hand, thought itself relatively immune to commercial real estate pain. Not anymore. "I foresee a lot of commercial deals going sour," says Nicholas Sears, an Atlanta-based partner at Morris, Manning & Martin LLP. "Folks want to sell. They can't sell. Purchasers can't get new financing or assume existing debt, which can't be reduced."
Even a city like Milwaukee, which hardly went crazy during the property boom, is feeling the effects. "Banks have closed down their lending. Ninety percent of commercial lenders are just not lending right now," says Nancy Haggerty, a Milwaukee-based partner at Michael Best & Friedrich LLP. "Even some long-term lenders like life insurance we're just not seeing any more."
I can confirm the life insurance companies are not lending on CRE...who wil finance and/or refinance?
I think Christoper Dodd and Barney Frank are as culpable as Greenspan.
Party In Power - Congress and Presidency - A Visual Guide To The Balance of Power In Congress, 1945-2008
PS: Neither Armey nor Frank have served in the Senate.
I can confirm the life insurance companies are not lending on CRE...who wil finance and/or refinance?
crispy&cole | Homepage | 01.10.09 - 12:00 am | #
I would think that pension funds cut back hugely as well. They have to be significant players in this space.
Want to turn silver into gold? Learn silversmithing.
who wil finance and/or refinance?
BB
I'm certain that this group has cut back significantly as well, if they play at all.
... According to a report from Real Capital Analytics, foreign investors put in US$13 billion into U.S. real estate in 2004, an increase of more than 60% over 2003. An annual growth of 60% suggests the enormous amount of capital invested in the commercial real estate properties of the United States. The main countries that have shown interest in these properties are Australia, Germany, Canada and Middle East. The financing deals range from joint venture partnerships to preferred equity deals. ...
The John Batchelor Show :: Doom Speak Citi - Mentioned in Dispatches
OT From this evening's news:
Union Pacific has 420 miles of empty boxcars stored on tracks in different parts of the country. Also 253 locomotives.
This made the news because there is is a string of 60 boxcars sitting on otherwise unused track that runs through a residential neighborhood, and the local government it trying to get UP to move them.
"Although I expect a significant decline in office investment over the next few years, the good news is the current boom wasn't anywhere near as large as the previous booms - so hopefully the bust will not be as bad as the early '90s."
I agree, CR, but the problem with this and all the other real estate investments is the 'expectation' that the return will be phenomenal.
This brainwashing aided and abetted by our govt and the Fed will make things interesting in 2009.
This made the news because there is is a string of 60 boxcars sitting on otherwise unused track that runs through a residential neighborhood, and the local government it trying to get UP to move them.
emgrasso | Homepage | 01.10.09 - 12:15 am | #
Maybe the gov't can pay graffiti artists as part of the stimulus program.
I'm not sure why there would be any question of why lenders are not lending CRE. Vacancy rates are going to spiral. Those with cash have their eye on one thing these days - picking up the pieces in 24 months. And the pieces (they figure) will be 10 cents, twenty cents, and 33.5 cents on the dollar. There are funds forming now as we speak, syndications of capital, Vulture funds, i call them, based on the plan.
Thread music: A Hammond in its element (looks like a B3 to me)
Where is Lefty? I need another 18 year-old single malt
There are funds forming now as we speak, syndications of capital, Vulture funds, i call them, based on the plan.
Kondratieff canuk | 01.10.09 - 12:20 am | #
The bigger and more there are of these funds the less likely they are to be able to get them at the discounts they hope for. Simple supply & demand. Those are the forces that make for a sharp 'V' recovery in prices. If that happens it will be quite interesting in a blood letting sort of a way.
Personally I don't the vulture funds are as big or as numerous as the 'reports' but we'll see.
RE (if you're still there):
Last thread @ 1042, you wrote about how most medical costs are incurred in the last six months of life.
Yep.
But that report has the advantage of hindsight since the subjects of the report are already dead.
Research out there that physicians are usually unable to tell how long someone has to live until the last few days/hours. So even if it's a terminal illness, many will throw the kitchen sink at it since that's what the society (esp families) expect of them. They just keep working it in hopes of progress until truly apparent that the end is nigh via objective physical findings indicating impending death.
So for your viewing pleasure...
YouTube - Monty Python: Not Dead Yet
I'd be surprised if they really have the cash tucked away safely, too. More likely they have funds "pledged".
They could put the local homeless in the 60 box cars and then move them.
CR, This is the same thing you were missing early on in housing. A boom after no job creation just adds to the prior boom. It is like building an empty building on top of a building. Prior booms at least had some job creation for support. Not this one.
emgrasso:
When with kids and stuck at RR crossing, we count cars.
The trains are most definitely shorter.
Costar, along with Reis, are hardly credible. I base this on the amount of time i end up spending trying to ensure that the info they publish is accurate, even though they got they info from me in the first place. They pay their researchers nothing and typically hire people w/ little to no CRE experience (particularly in the case of CoStar). Their (Costar) projections could be off by several million SF in either direction and should not be relied upon...
The trains are most definitely shorter.
The Choo-Choo Indicator!
dryfly writes:
The bigger and more there are of these funds the less likely they are to be able to get them at the discounts they hope for. Simple supply & demand. Those are the forces that make for a sharp 'V' recovery in prices.
I think for that effect, there needs to be first an underlying economy. Speculation is not a self-fulfilling prophesy.
Peter Morici, an economist at the University of Maryland said something today which struck a chord with me: "The economy is not in a self-correcting mode. Recessions self-correct, but depressions do not."
Job losses highest since 1945 - Los Angeles Times
My observation is that this economy is like a plane flying silently at 33,000 feet, with no fuel in the tanks. (Air Canada did that once, took of and ran out of fuel). The pilot is calm as he tells the crew how he intends to land on a frozen lake surface, within range of the glide ratio.
dryfly - you were quoted in the Comrade Peronista link @ 12:13 above
"The bigger and more there are of these funds the less likely they are to be able to get them at the discounts they hope for. Simple supply & demand."
I think you understimate supply. By orders of magnitude.
Dryfly, we need money to get a new bubble. Who haz money?
Vulture Funds - yes.
JPM and GS - if they can keep the auditors and FED happy.
Obama and Bernanke
China
So let's sit and watch were they put their money. Good point. Please alert us if you catch anything.
Vulture Funds have money depending on your definition. However consider the total amount of CRE built over the last 6 years. The vast majority was oversupply. I guarantee you, the vulture funds don't have that much money. Either does God.
So let's sit and watch were they put their money. Good point. Please alert us if you catch anything.
Comrade Peronista | 01.10.09 - 12:44 am | #
I'll be the last to know - I'll be walking some factory floor looking at 'parts' when the wave hits...
BTW, I just played God in poker. That is the reason I know he doesn't have that much money.
I mean she.
I guarantee you, the vulture funds don't have that much money. Either does God.
Elvis | 01.10.09 - 12:46 am | #
I know God doesn't have the scratch else the priests wouldn't be hitting us up so hard every Sunday...
The priests play me in poker, too. Suckers.
They just keep working it in hopes of progress until truly apparent that the end is nigh via objective physical findings indicating impending death.
homedad43 | Homepage | 01.10.09 - 12:29 am | #
Great Monty Python, btw. They had a great way of honing in on a story and getting at its essence.
No disagreement. I posted the article because on the one hand it makes clear that "Neither in the American private health insurance system nor in the German public health care system is age rationing legal." and that therefore it isn't quite as simple to explain away the cost differential between the two health care systems.
I also thought the conclusion quite interesting in that despite an increase in costs based on proximity of death that "health expenditures for the last year of life decrease with age in Germany as in the US."
Elvis writes:
BTW, I just played God in poker. That is the reason I know he doesn't have that much money.
Now THAT was funny. BTW, happy belated birthday.
homedad43 writes:
So even if it's a terminal illness, many will throw the kitchen sink at it since that's what the society (esp families) expect of them.
Not RE, but IMO expectations needs to change. My anecdotal knowledge is that the amount spent on the last few months of life almost always exceeds the amount spent in the entire lifetime prior to that.
It's a waste of societal resources.
If we actually do reach depression stage (whatever that may be) or if the recession is long and deep enough, we as a society may actually have to confront issues like this.
Homedad said
"So even if it's a terminal illness, many will throw the kitchen sink at it since that's what the society (esp families) expect of them. They just keep working it in hopes of progress until truly apparent that the end is nigh via objective physical findings indicating impending death."
I suggest to you that this is driven by fear of lawsuits. I presume that these "heroic" measures have sometimes worked to prolong life. So if it is not done then it is the doctors negligence.
And IIRC, no one, not the families or even the patient can stop it except by signing out AMA.
My wife has recently started a job in Hospice care. A much better way to die.
Elvis Presley "Mystery Train"
Thanks. Gotta go.
Reading this blog re: unemployment and I get to feelng like the s has already hit the f. Then, I drive down the road and get first-hand relief: A "Now Hiring" sign up at the local Lowes. Go figure.
Weekend action to look out for:
Putin and the Saudi's are not happy that all these peace initiatives are destroying their plans to keep oil above 40 USD.
Watch out for more action from Gazprom and Hamas.
My anecdotal knowledge is that the amount spent on the last few months of life almost always exceeds the amount spent in the entire lifetime prior to that.
Anonymous | 01.10.09 - 12:51 am | #
The paper has this quote regarding your point:
... Studies of the US medicare population suggest that 27 to 30 percent of all Medicare payments in any given year are spent on the 5 to 6 percent of patients who die during the course of that year (Lubitz, Prihoda 1984). Furthermore, the individual health care expenses of those who die are not evenly distributed over the year but tend to cumulate
during the last two months of life. Lubitz and Riley (1993) estimate that about half of an individual's total health care costs are incurred during the last 60 days of life and that 40 percent arise during the last month. ...
most medical costs are incurred in the last six months of life.
Where is also starting to get out of hand is neo-natal intensive care. Not only is the percentages getting higher, but the gestation periods are getting shorter.
These are literally million dollar babies, but politically impossible to resolve.
RE:
Didn't know that about Germany vs US but not really surprising given the national attitude towards death. (i.e. Don't die). That is truly a societal indicator.
Anon:
Litigation is probably a factor but not certain as to amount. Also dependent upon the specialty; OB/GYNs and surgeons historically have the highest lawsuit rates of specialties and with those two, not certain how much plays into the last six months scenario.
plschwartz:
Good for your spouse. Mine does also and I couldn't begin to do it...
G'night all.
I remember once in the wrecked economy of BC, '70's recession I landed a job. The company manger told me on hiring day there had been 300 plus resumes. I felt like i won a lottery, i was exhilarated for months by my good fortune. I think in 2009 and 2010, there will be 3,000 resumes for that same job.
My observation is that this economy is like a plane flying silently at 33,000 feet, with no fuel in the tanks. (Air Canada did that once, took of and ran out of fuel). The pilot is calm as he tells the crew how he intends to land on a frozen lake surface, within range of the glide ratio.
Kondratieff canuk | 01.10.09 - 12:39 am | #
Except that the plane is full of engineers and they've been told by their superiors that the plane must be converted into a helicopter while it's still in flight, or everyone on board will die.
to demystify that - the economy has to be radically reshaped, dynamically, and without bringing the velocity of money to zero in the process.
I have help on the way to pay for the stimulus ... wifey is pregnant.
I remember once in the wrecked economy of BC, '70's recession I landed a job. The company manger told me on hiring day there had been 300 plus resumes. I felt like i won a lottery, i was exhilarated for months by my good fortune. I think in 2009 and 2010, there will be 3,000 resumes for that same job.
Kondratieff canuk | 01.10.09 - 1:02 am | #
Point taken (if directed at me), but I made a point of the LOWES hanging a sign. First, (no offense to ANYONE here) I don't think Lowes is cherry-picking the best of the best. Spend the least to get a warm body in a uniform. Second, in an economic climate like this, applications for low-level jobs like these should be up enough that companies don't have to hang a sign on the street.
That sign represented a contradiction to me. It forces me to check my premise.
I have help on the way to pay for the stimulus ... wifey is pregnant.
skizye | 01.10.09 - 1:05 am | #
Congrats!
Reading this blog re: unemployment and I get to feelng like the s has already hit the f. Then, I drive down the road and get first-hand relief: A "Now Hiring" sign up at the local Lowes. Go figure.
RockyR | 01.10.09 - 12:57 am | #
Stop in and ask the manager (1) how many hours they need to fill and (2) how many applicants did they get.
My son works at Mall of America - he is down to less than 20 hours a week right now but feels good about that - others were cut to less than 10 hours. I asked him why they even keep them around with that little work scheduled - his reply was they were the 'bench' in case others quit - they will then have trained staff they can move in to those slots immediately (move them up from 10 hours to say 20 hours and they are already trained ready to go). He said they expect a number of these folks to quit and NONE have so far. They are all hanging in there hoping the others leave or business picks up so they can return to 30-40 hour weeks... you couldn't get away with that if the job market was better the folks doing 10 hours a week would be long gone if there were other opportunities.
dryfly | 01.10.09 - 1:07 am | #
10 -4. I may just stop in and say hello. Admittedly, Lowes can't afford me anymore... at least not right now!
d'oh!
skizye - first of all, congratulations. Second, don't worry about a thing. By the time your child is 15 or 20 years old, the economy will be booming again.
RockyR writes:
Point taken (if directed at me)
No point intended, just relating to yours with an add-on to the image you created. It made me think back to the value of a job then, and what it will soon become.
That sign represented a contradiction to me. It forces me to check my premise.
RockyR | 01.10.09 - 1:06 am | #
Checking premises is always a good idea. Usually confirms what you already knew but in an 'exception proves the rule' sort of way ONCE you dig into the details. Dig in and let us know.
Based on what I've observed around town, at work, in the media, and in the conversations people are having, we've crossed a threshold. We've reached critical mass and events are speeding up.
Conjure's clock may be running 2 or 3 seconds slow.
404 Error, No such article | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle
Mosaic's developer files Chapter 11 protection
Anyone have access to that Citi article behind the wall at WSJ? Looks rather ugly up through the first sentence...
They are all hanging in there hoping the others leave or business picks up so they can return to 30-40 hour weeks... you couldn't get away with that if the job market was better the folks doing 10 hours a week would be long gone if there were other opportunities.
dryfly | 01.10.09 - 1:07 am
Dry,
My youngest son does iron work here in Socal. Pretty much the same thing. The only guys getting more than a day or two a week are foremen. For a young man he is getting quite the free education. The older guys he works (WORKED?) with consider this the end of the line. No construction = destruction of their lifestyle
"Conjure's clock may be running 2 or 3 seconds slow."
Conjure is aware.
Based on what I've observed around town, at work, in the media, and in the conversations people are having, we've crossed a threshold. We've reached critical mass and events are speeding up.
Feckless Ness | 01.10.09 - 1:11 am | #
I had a long conversation with a J6P recently who admitted to me that he was completely "panicked". He had paid off his CC debt, changed his health plan, shifted some savings around, and cut all discretionary spending. That impressed me that a pretty main-street (not finance geek-type) was keenly aware of our problems. He went on to say two other interesting things: 1.) in his we'll know more around March or April about how bad things will get and 2.) should we "make it" (i.e., he keeps his job, etc.) until June, then he's reopening the spending spigot (including a vacation, new cars, etc.)
Paul Krugman: The Obama gap - The New York Times
Paul Krugman: The Obama gap
The bottom line is that the Obama plan is unlikely to close more than half of the looming output gap, and could easily end up doing less than a third of the job.
1.) in his
should read: in his opinio
001(Unrated) writes:
\tskizye - first of all, congratulations. Second, don't worry about a thing. By the time your child is 15 or 20 years old, the economy will be booming again.
001 | 01.10.09 - 1:10 am | #
Thank you! This is kid number two-- hoping for a boy this time. Yes the economy will be "booming" then and in preparation our 5 year-old daughter has grown a Chia pet this past week to hone her harvesting skills and will next be trained in firearms.
The bottom line is that the Obama plan is unlikely to close more than half of the looming output gap, and could easily end up doing less than a third of the job.
FFDIC | 01.10.09 - 1:16 am | #
So... we need a $3T stimulus?
mp- Did conjure correct for the leap second at the turn of the year?
Feckless Ness, there was a shift in tone this week, even before Obama's speech. People are talking double digit unemployment now without fear of people scoffing. The fact is, no one bloody has a clue - no one. We are all of us flying in the fog, instrumentation is spinning wildly. There is no 'North' in this situation - no compass. But, as the Bank of Canada Gov prophetically said yesterday, "(but)..end it will."
skizye, there are no leap years in Conjure Universal Time (CUT).
skizye - I was going to say, in the meantime your child(ren) will get the education of a lifetime. It can only serve them well going forward.
Krugman is a political hack.
He says its not enough...but doesn't say how much would be.
He hints it should be 3 Trillion when he says "a third of a loaf is better than none."
My guess is he is giving himself an out if it doesn't work. He can say it wasn't big enought.
Just like they say about Govt intervention in the Great Depression. It wasn't enough.
Just like they say to diffuse comparisons to Japan. They were too slow...the didn't do enough fast enough.
gotta turn in. night all.
COME ON!
The Obama Gap???
HE'S NOT EVEN IN OFFICE YET. WHAT ABOUT THE FREAKING BUSH GAP???
skizye - I was going to say, in the meantime your child(ren) will get the education of a lifetime.
001 | 01.10.09 - 1:23 am | #
The "John Connor" school?
My youngest son does iron work here in Socal. Pretty much the same thing. The only guys getting more than a day or two a week are foremen. For a young man he is getting quite the free education. The older guys he works (WORKED?) with consider this the end of the line. No construction = destruction of their lifestyle
Now is a Great time to..... | 01.10.09 - 1:15 am | #
In the 80s I met a welder who started a blacksmith & stained glass window biz... he and his wife lived above the store... he had gone from full benefit $20/hr union iron monger to a thin soup 'entrepreneur'... there was no iron work except for a few pipe fitter jobs where you needed certs. The guy made beautiful iron rail fences & windows but really was almost starving - he was 50 or so looking at a very long 'not quite retirement'. It will happen again but the paper pushers of this generation won't be able to makes fences or windows.
On a similar theme - I live near Best Buy's corp HQ... reports are they are asking 4000 administrative & mgmt types to take voluntary early retirement or a buy out [that is everywhere not just at HQ]... so far only 500 have stepped up. Nest wave won't be voluntary. These folk can't hammer metal either.
You know, I can really get into the guns, beans and rice thing, but I've got to say I think many of us a giving short shrift to most of the people.
The posters on this board are not the only smart ones walking the Earth. When I see posts expressing 'surprise' that some dude they talked to is aware of things amazes me. Please note that there are many smart and aware folk among us that do not post, read or perhaps even share the mad max outlook.
Out of all this mess will rise some incredible things....I hope
There is no 'North' in this situation - no compass.
Kondratieff canuk | 01.10.09 - 1:21 am | #
There IS a compass. There was always a compass. Problem is, very few people are following it.
skizye - I was going to say, in the meantime your child(ren) will get the education of a lifetime. It can only serve them well going forward.
001 | 01.10.09 - 1:23 am | #
I've been telling my kids the samething.
On a similar theme - I live near Best Buy's corp HQ... reports are they are asking 4000 administrative & mgmt types to take voluntary early retirement or a buy out [that is everywhere not just at HQ]... so far only 500 have stepped up. Nest wave won't be voluntary. These folk can't hammer metal either.
I hear you. They are one of our customers. Honestly, their management has been very proactive in taking care of these guys. But your numbers match with what I'm hearing. NO ONE wants to voluntarily leave their position right now. Their offer was blanket. ANYONE who wanted to go would get a decent deal.....but where would they go?
At my company we were supposed to hire 1,500 people last year and we have the damndest time finding qualified people. Engineering is a lost skill that noone has interest in anymore. Anyone engineers looking for jobs here?
"...but where would they go?"
Circuit City?
Sorry, it just slipped out.
Now is a Great time to..... writes:
'Being smart' should be no barrier to sharing information. Life is a collection of experiences. None of us can experience everything, or know everything. Out of the mouth of babes...
He says its not enough...but doesn't say how much would be.
Average Joe | Homepage | 01.10.09 - 1:23 am | #
That is my beef with him as well - nor does he say what or where it should be spent on. There is a world of difference between 'stimulus' used to build future prosperity around (like the spin off gains from the space race) and mindless consumption (a lot of Japan's was wasted on bridges to nowhere).
And more from the international front:
Congo raises interest rates, seeks IMF help
Congo, hit by a currency slide and falling demand for its minerals in a global downturn, will seek an emergency loan from the International Monetary Fund to halt a rapidly worsening financial crisis, the government said.
In a statement released late on Thursday, the mineral-rich but cash-strapped Democratic Republic of Congo said it had raised key interest rates to 40 percent from 28 percent to halt a slide in its Congolese franc currency. ...
Usually when your instrumentation is ga-ga, it means you are upside-down in a flat spin. Not good. Yet if you push down on the stick, instead of pull up, you just might save yourself. Unless. of course, you're already too close to the ground. Not sure how this applies to economics, tho -
I've got to say I think many of us a giving short shrift to most of the people.
Now is a Great time to..... | 01.10.09 - 1:26 am | #
Hardly. If the masses were so smart there wouldn't be bubbles in the first place.
"People go mad in crowds, but they come to their senses one at a time."
oh my god --citibank is going to have to be propped next week--all hell is breaking loose.
Anonymous | 01.09.09 - 11:23 pm | #
The FDIC canceled all closings in preparation for Citi's collapse and fear runs could begin Monday.
Rubin leaving in disgrace...
Blackhalo | 01.09.09 - 11:28 pm | #
Fuck that. Rubin stayed until he knew he couldn't get the big bucks any more. The FDIC cut him off. Get a clue.
Circuit City?
Sorry, it just slipped out.
mp |
I ALMOST said the same thing. They are also a customer. So many good people there under the upper level management. Still hope for them, though. We will see this coming week. Do or die time...the 16th, I think
FFDIC writes:
The FDIC canceled all closings in preparation for Citi's collapse and fear runs could begin Monday.
Is this the asteroid? Sounds like it. What will happen in your opinion? Fallout wise
FFDIC- "The FDIC canceled all closings in preparation for Citi's collapse and fear runs could begin Monday."
What the hell are you talking about?
There is a world of difference between 'stimulus' used to build future prosperity around (like the spin off gains from the space race) and mindless consumption (a lot of Japan's was wasted on bridges to nowhere).
dryfly | 01.10.09 - 1:32 am | #
I agree ... a space race sized program to get us off the middle-east tit is a good idea. If that happened, who knows ... maybe the world could become dependant on us. I doubt it though ... the US has forgotten how to produce anything of value anymore
At my company we were supposed to hire 1,500 people last year and we have the damndest time finding qualified people. Engineering is a lost skill that noone has interest in anymore. Anyone engineers looking for jobs here?
skizye | 01.10.09 - 1:31 am | #
To tell you how bad it is - I have my resume on Monster... I'm always looking for good contract marketing work (industrial stuff). But years ago I used to work in operations as a chemical engineer at ethanol & fructose plants (VERY large operations)... this was the 80s. I keep that experience on my resume because we were exposed to so much stuff - engineering, start ups, operations & line supervision. That was almost 25 years ago...
Yesterday I got an email from a head hunter asking me to apply for a plant mgr job running one of these plants - cited my current mgmt experience and past plant operations experience. All I could think was 'if they are looking at people who haven't worked in this business for 25 years - they are in a world of hurt - there must be a huge shortage of those kinds of engineers'... BTW the pay wasn't too bad $130K to $150K w/ additional bonus living in a small city where houses rarely exceed $150K.
skizyed,
That's my hope, too.
A new energy source would generate jobs across the board -- engineering & science, software, materials, construction, etc. I still believe the US could define the next century that way, provided we put our priorities straight on dedicated ourselves to it.
Besides, necessity is the mother of invention, right?
The bankers secret plan.
Feed the Pig
Besides, necessity is the mother of invention, right?
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) | 01.10.09 - 1:44 am | #
Yup.
WTF?????????????
The FDIC canceled all closings in preparation for Citi's collapse and fear runs could begin Monday.
FFDIC | 01.10.09 - 1:34 am | #
dryfly - Score!
Are you still here FFDIC? What is the story???
There cannot be a cash withdrawal fear run coming on a major retail US bank...can there? Is it conceivable?
UK would crumble over night...
Are you still here FFDIC? What is the story???
crispy&cole | Homepage | 01.10.09 - 1:50 am | #
I'm getting hungry for pizza.
IMO, someone is using FFDIC's handle.
I think it's a canard.
Here's Yves take from a bit earlier tonite:
Citi on Its Way to Breakup? « naked capitalism
Okay, FFDIC and mp usually aren't that blunt in their respective comments, so you got my attention also.
All I see is Morgan Stanley negotiating this weekend to buy Citi's Smith Barney and some suggestions that Citi needs to downsize and may have some serious balance sheet issues since it needed an extra $20B from the government beyond the initial $25B.
Is this all just a smokescreen for what's really happening? Inquiring minds and all that jazz.
we get it, someone is holding skf or C puts...
not like it would be a shocker if C did hit the mat
mp - you could be right.
IMO, someone is using FFDIC's handle.
I think it's a canard.
mp | 01.10.09 - 1:51 am |
That thought crossed my mind also since he (a) doesn't do rumors and (b) almost always has a citation or link.
CR Registration would end that problem.
I think it's a canard.
mp | 01.10.09 - 1:51 am | #
I mean nobody would stoop to hyjacking a handle to talk up their book right?
Yesterday I got an email from a head hunter asking me to apply for a plant mgr job running one of these plants - cited my current mgmt experience and past plant operations experience. All I could think was 'if they are looking at people who haven't worked in this business for 25 years - they are in a world of hurt - there must be a huge shortage of those kinds of engineers'... BTW the pay wasn't too bad $130K to $150K w/ additional bonus living in a small city where houses rarely exceed $150K.
dryfly | 01.10.09 - 1:42 am | #
Well I work for an aerospace contractor in L.A. so you aren't going to find $150k homes just yet. They say 50% of the workforce in aerospace is eligble to retire in the next 5-10 years. There is a huge age generational gap between those guys and myself (I'm 29) ... these companies aren't going to be able to perform here shortly due to lack of knowledge and lack of skilled college graduates. I doubt those boomers are going to be able to afford to retire though. So far, aerospace has been sheltered from the economy downturn, but I suspect that will change in the next 2 years.
ow if said trollbasher has the nuts to be holding FAZ, then s/he has my admiration
@dryfly - on a Friday night? Is there a market open? If the rumor were false and represented book-talking, why bother? It'd be discounted by the futures opening on Sunday -- what's the point?
Not that it couldn't be false just to keep all of us from sleeping tonight...
something big is going on at citi, wsj calls it "seperating certain divisions". I do not like the sound of it.. the official story is a bit too straightforward. Something nasty is cooking.. I could be wrong.. but something about the official rationale just does not sound right..
Hmmm, and Citi just decided to play nice on cramdowns...
I wouldn't jump on the troll bandwagon just yet. Whenever FFDIC mentions something of real importance, he usually just retreats into the shadows just about immediately. This might be awfully confidential.
Rumors abound about Citi and this one just could be true.
" so you aren't going to find $150k homes just yet."
there are many dozens, perhaps a hundred+ of SFRs at that price in south central, all an easy commute to LAX. would the average professional want to live there is the question.
FFDIC writes:
The FDIC canceled all closings in preparation for Citi's collapse and fear runs could begin Monday.
FFDIC | 01.10.09 - 1:34 am | #
-----
Can I haz some details or linkz plz? I'm hearing about Citi problems, and all I've seen is the MS joint venture.
Is there some between-the-line reading that I'm missing or is there an article I haven't seen?
Nice, throw a log on the fire... lol
I realize the Yahoo message boards aren't exactly a fountain of truth, but wrt C, the quote "citigroup forced to sell its kidney for cash" sounds about right... Government finally wielding the knife of power? When something that's too big to fail is destined to fail, time to slice off anything that can survive independently in order to bring the failure down to a manageable size?
At my company we were supposed to hire 1,500 people last year and we have the damndest time finding qualified people. Engineering is a lost skill that noone has interest in anymore. Anyone engineers looking for jobs here?
skizye | 01.10.09 - 1:31 am | # [kill][hide comment]
Skizye, in two weeks I I'll know if I'm going to be next. Last month the let all the technicians go.
Fortunately I've been a regular here since late 2004 so I'm well prepared. Summer vacation, Woo Hoo! Give me a call after labor day...
Well I work for an aerospace contractor in L.A. so you aren't going to find $150k homes just yet. They say 50% of the workforce in aerospace is eligble to retire in the next 5-10 years. There is a huge age generational gap between those guys and myself (I'm 29) ... these companies aren't going to be able to perform here shortly due to lack of knowledge and lack of skilled college graduates. I doubt those boomers are going to be able to afford to retire though. So far, aerospace has been sheltered from the economy downturn, but I suspect that will change in the next 2 years.
skizye |
Skizye..interesting. Work for a smallish software joint. Phone is ringing off the hook these days from customers that have been burned by 23 year old 'senior' folks. I do know that we haven't hired any youngun's for the last 24 months. ALL have been older(over 30!) men & women. Experience is king?
Can someone translate these for me?
From the CA Depts of Corporation and Real Estate:
DRE brokers can broker to DRE, CFL, RML, state chartered and federally chartered institutions
CFL brokers can only broker to CFL
RML brokers can only broker to RML, state chartered and federally chartered institutions
What are DRE, CFL, and RML?
I doubt those boomers are going to be able to afford to retire though.
skizye | 01.10.09 - 1:55 am | #
Bingo. Very few will and even fewer in places like LA than out here in el cheapo fly over. I've been telling anyone who will listen that most of 'us' will die with our boots on - you 'youngsters' will find us dead in our cubicles and toss our stiff bodies on the mail cart like in Monty Python's 'Bring out your dead
' skit from 'The Holy Grail'.
Until then the engineering shortage is a bit premature.
Thought I heard Paul Kangas say Citi was down quite a bit in after-hours trading, but my mind was elsewhere and memory's not reliable.
Well I work for an aerospace contractor in L.A.
skizye | 01.10.09 - 1:55 am | #
Hmmm... co-worker of Neil's?
And to add to the credibility issue. The first link in this thread that FFDIC posted was from the Chron. As a Texan he often posts link from the Chron or from the Morning News. He obviously participated in this thread.
mp writes:
\tI think it's a canard.
mp | 01.10.09 - 1:51 am | #
-----
It may be, but FFDIC is the 2nd or 3rd person to cite seeing some super OMFGWTFBBQ!!1! news or near future events tied to Citi tonight. While the previous commenters were "anonymous" or some variation of that name, there is enough credible news tied to Citi (See MS, Smith Barney, Rubin's Departure, etc) that I'm not willing to discount it until someone somewhere reliably dismisses it.
It would be foolhardy to not take such a thought seriously.
most of 'us' will die with our boots on
dryfly | 01.10.09 - 2:04 am | #
Never imagined it any other way, but geez, not in a cubicle!
Until then the engineering shortage is a bit premature.
dryfly | 01.10.09 - 2:04 am | #
The older guys still have an awesome pension though so most are still planning to retire. But Im sure that will be gone in a few years too.
Metaphor, Bear. I refer to my (and my wife's) bedroom as 'the cubicle
Maybe FFDIC drank too much Shiner Bock. Drunk posting, almost as dangerous as drunk dialing.
He's passed out on his couch now...
RE: Lets assume for 5 sec that the rumor plays out for real. What then? I cannot comprehend the impact.
"It would be foolhardy to not take such a thought seriously."
I'm not saying it couldn't be true, but I am waiting for more data before I sign on to it.
Hmmm... co-worker of Neil's?
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) | 01.10.09 - 2:05 am | #
It is possible ... I think we live in the same area (South Bay) and both work for aerospace. I haven't talked to him directly so not sure if we are at the same place. I have my popcorn though.
RE: Lets assume for 5 sec that the rumor plays out for real. What then? I cannot comprehend the impact.
Kondratieff canuk | 01.10.09 - 2:08 am | #
I can - they have to follow Maria B around with a mop and a bucket all day Monday.
More secret banker plans,
Hulu - Movie Trailers: The International - Trailer 1
"I cannot comprehend the impact."
eh, another 20 bil of market cap after a quarter trill has been smoked... kind of a nothingburger
that being said, xlf @5 would mean that the xlf had tracked the djia in relative terms 1929-1932, which is why it is a significant target IMO
I cannot comprehend the impact.
Kondratieff canuk | 01.10.09 - 2:08 am | #
Sounds like a swan of the dark grey variety.
What then? I cannot comprehend the impact.
Kondratieff canuk | 01.10.09 - 2:08 am | #
As a member of the S&P and DOW and holder of trillions in CDS...I think things could get real ugly!
"I can - they have to follow Maria B around with a mop and a bucket all day Monday."
I'd like to see that. I'd pay to see that.
most of 'us' will die with our boots on
dryfly | 01.10.09 - 2:04 am | #
Thats funny. When I got out of school and started working in Palmdale (of all places)...within the first 3 months...3 old guys decided to "retire" in their cubicle. I knew what to look for in aerospace from then on.
I can - they have to follow Maria B around with a mop and a bucket all day Monday.
dryfly | 01.10.09 - 2:10 am | #
LOL. Yup. The talk about a systemic crisis will be right back in the news. It might also explain why Bush wants the second part of TARP so urgently...
Kondratieff canuk writes:
\tRE: Lets assume for 5 sec that the rumor plays out for real. What then? I cannot comprehend the impact.
Kondratieff canuk | 01.10.09 - 2:08 am | #
-----
Cash run? Market Circuitbreakers? USD/Treasuries dive-bomb?
Something is moving and shaking, and there is a reason that all of this news came out after the market closed today. Maybe my tinfoil hat is on too tightly tonight, but these people aren't stupid. I remember some comments talking about the FDIC moving into Citi offices in CA back in October and November on a Friday but nothing ever seemed to come out of that rumor?
Marketwatch After Hours Citigroup (oddly, not dated)
It might also explain why Bush wants the second part of TARP so urgently...
RE | 01.10.09 - 2:12 am | #
Ding Ding....that was my thought also, putting the pieces together. Someone knows something...why would the President beg for $350 billion with 10 days left???
It might also explain why Bush wants the second part of TARP so urgently...
RE | 01.10.09 - 2:12 am | #
So many dots, so little time...
FFDIC has never been wrong on a post...if this is our man from Texas then look out!
At my company we were supposed to hire 1,500 people last year and we have the damndest time finding qualified people. Engineering is a lost skill that noone has interest in anymore. Anyone engineers looking for jobs here?
skizye | 01.10.09 - 1:31 am | # [kill][hide comment]
Skizye, I expect I'll find out if they close down my division in a few weeks. But since I've been a regular here since late 2004 I'm well prepared. Give me a call in the fall. Summer vacation, woo hoo!
"why would the President beg for $350 billion with 10 days left???"
ever see game shows where a person has 30 seconds to scoop stuff off of supermarket shelves?
Naptime here. Can't wait to see what tomorrow holds (sigh).
Not saying it is, not saying it ain't...but I will restock the cash on hand a bit this weekend...just sayi
citizen energyecon writes:
\tSo many dots, so little time...
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 01.10.09 - 2:15 am | #
-----
Agreed.
My kingdom for some FDIC contacts right about now...
...but I will restock the cash on hand a bit this weekend...just sayin'
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 01.10.09 - 2:16 am | #
LOL!!
I also thought about the 300 billion + TARP money already committed to Citi... I do not have a goof feeling about this.
"for some FDIC "
as if they know anything - all fractional reserve banks are just one stock panic away from the abyss.
all of them - jpm, usb, wfc, ucc, db - every last one.
the same goes for every last currency used on the planet.
why would the President beg for $350 billion with 10 days left???
This was explained two threads down. Because Congress has 15 days to reject the request but no means to approve, a preemptive request by Bush would allow Obama faster access to the funds.
In other words, if Geithner went to Congress on the 21st, the earliest the Treasury would get the funds is 15 days later. Bush asking for it means on Monday means the funds come in 15 days later, well after he's gone. Bush can not use the funds.
Question is, what are the Republicans getting in return?
What are DRE, CFL, and RML?
Basel Too | 01.10.09 - 2:04 am
Interesting question, though the timing arrived just after a news flash.
DRE is Department of Real Estate. A DRE broker is just a real estate broker.
RML may refer to Residential Mortgage Lender. There is a RMLA with the A being Act.
CFL I'm not sure, but I think California licenses Certified Financial Planners so that could relate.
With a little context I might be able to clarify more.
Ding Ding....that was my thought also, putting the pieces together. Someone knows something...why would the President beg for $350 billion with 10 days left???
crispy&cole | Homepage | 01.10.09 - 2:14 am | #
Would also explain the silence for Pelosi et. al....
[Hank drings up Nancy]
Hank: "You know that bit where GWB said it was 'going down'?"
Nancy: [pregnant pause] ..."yes?"
Hank: "Well it's goin' down... we're taking the dough.... got any complaints?"
[sound of body hitting the floor - phone goes dead]
bgates writes:
as if they know anything - all fractional reserve banks are just one stock panic away from the abyss.
bgates | 01.10.09 - 2:19 am | #
-----
If they are moving in to protect it, they will know about it.
Granted, they won't know what is going to happen until there is a body at the scene. We are just discussing if there is now a body and if not, what would be our response if there was one?
Skizye, I expect I'll find out if they close down my division in a few weeks. But since I've been a regular here since late 2004 I'm well prepared. Give me a call in the fall. Summer vacation, woo hoo!
\t EEngineer | \t \t \t \t01.10.09 - 2:16 am | #
Don't go too crazy ... you'll need the clearance.
Feckless Ness writes:
COME ON!
The Obama Gap???
HE'S NOT EVEN IN OFFICE YET. WHAT ABOUT THE FREAKING BUSH GAP???
Feckless Ness | 01.10.09 - 1:25 am
Then Obama should shut up, and stop scheduling news conferences and making public statements. He's certainly acting like he's already president...
dryfly, is this like scrabble? You know like double word score. He got her coming and going...
Then Obama should shut up, and stop scheduling news conferences and making public statements. He's certainly acting like he's already president...
Smartass | 01.10.09 - 2:25 am | #
Agreed and I'm no Bush fan... we'll have Obama fatigue before we even get a President Obama at this rate.
The honeymoon's over before the inauguration?
dryfly, is this like scrabble? You know like double word score. He got her coming and going...
EEngineer | 01.10.09 - 2:26 am | #
Ya I think Hank is going to enjoy his retirement more than Nancy will enjoy her Speakership.
Agreed and I'm no Bush fan... we'll have Obama fatigue before we even get a President Obama at this rate.
\t dryfly | \t \t \t \t01.10.09 - 2:27 am | #
I think the market indicated that the latter half of this week.
With a little context I might be able to clarify more.
Thanks, sportsfan, I think those are it. 2:20 AM and I'm working on state compliance with the SAFE Act. Yay...
The honeymoon's over before the inauguration?
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) | 01.10.09 - 2:27 am | #
Too much 'sex with the media' will do that. Gotta save a little for after the cruise...
The Money Honey's honey hooped. (best I could do).
I just can imagine it.
Don't understand the panic over what C will do. Who cares? This is all part of the master plan. Remember: The taxpayer could see a profit from the TARP and C has taken a big part of that! No worries.
Thanks, sportsfan, I think those are it. 2:20 AM and I'm working on state compliance with the SAFE Act. Yay...
Basel Too | 01.10.09 - 2:29 am |
LOL. Just think, since December there are a million more people looking for a job and you're working at 2:20 a.m.
More power to you, man.
re: Citi
Isn't Citi one of the US Banks that has more depositors overseas than domestically? Would it play out like some reverse Iceland in that a foreign country/countries make a run on Citi's deposits in which would cause problems for US side of the equation?
What would happen if Japan, Korea, et al decided to pull their deposits and investments out of Citi's foreign operations?
Don't understand the panic over what C will do. Who cares? This is all part of the master plan. Remember: The taxpayer could see a profit from the TARP and C has taken a big part of that! No worries.
sdtfs | 01.10.09 - 2:31 am | #
Probably right - we own C already right? It really is all good. With that assurance I'm going to bed & have nothing but happy dreams from now on...
NEWS: Blog causes run on Global Bank.
Gasparino's phone hasn't rung ... nothing here move along.
I want to get the update on that news story a few threads back about the blogger arrested in South Korean for posting doom and gloom about the economy.
I can see the headline now: Anonymous Blogger's Identity Theft on Calculated Risk Causes CitiBank to Collapse.
"Butterfly in South America causes Hurricane in Northern Hemisphere"
sportsfan writes: lol.. funny, i went on to mention South Korea in the above, and then deleted it, same idea exactly.
citigroup is old news. keep an eye on toaster salesman lewis -- merrill deal can't complete until government undertakes substantial charity to countrywide
meanwhile pillow castle builder sir dimon is a knight without a horse and he now realizes the credit card delinquency army emerging from the forest. at least he got wamu inside the gates before the trouble started
merrill deal can't complete until government undertakes substantial charity to countrywide
Huh? The deal is done, and it's pretty much settled that BAC's not on the hook for Countryfried's debt.
Kondratieff canuk,
I only thought of that story because of your comment.
Time for me to close it down also, so I'll leave it in all of your trusted hands to insure that Citi makes it through the night.
Analagous to Helicopter Ben and the U.S. economy? LOL
"The canister full of cash was parachuted onto the Sirius Star .... however things went badly wrong for the pirates soon after the drop - they squabbled over how to split the money and then a wave washed off their getaway boat and drowned five of them."
"We got five dead bodies and we are still searching for the missing one. The waves were disastrous,' said Farah Osman, an associate of the gang. It is not known what happened to the money or those who survived."
Nice picture too
Five Somali pirates drown as they squabble over their $3million ransom | Mail Online
Citi on Its Way to Breakup? « naked capitalism
Here is some naked cap Citi stuff from the WSJ firewall. No one has ever used my CR handle to my knowledge. They don't dare! The Maria line was pricless. Thanks for that! Let me briefly attempt to clear up a couple of things. I'm not taking questions tonite so don't waste your time asking. I'm NOT drinking. Bank closings are on hold for some reason. Take your pick of the reasons and it explains no action yesterday in CA. I should have written another less flaming word instead of using the word collapse. It is likely to be seen as (and is being written about in the media as) a forced breakup. The sell off of whatever in this market of horrors (and also noted at naked cap) may prove difficult or impossible to move into substantial complicance with the regulator(s). The regulators are making big public and non-public moves now on Citi and it means to me TIME HAS RUN OUT. Call it what you want but if the public panics even a little Citi may collapse. I hope this clears some of your questions and concerns. I want to keep my mostly good record clean.
Double wow..
Oh one more thing. Shumer just called my house. Said he LOVES to hike and digs Elvis and Barney sleeps with a dozen nude Barbie dolls.
Senator Charles E. Schumer
The regulators are making big public and non-public moves now on Citi
I guess the installment purchase by MS of Smith Barney should have raised some red flags...
FFDIC writes:
Oh one more thing. Shumer just called my house. Said he LOVES to hike and digs Elvis and Barney sleeps with a dozen nude Barbie dolls.
All at one time?
Man, I just had a vision.
<Pre-TARP> Congressman Number 1: Should we just give him the money with no oversight?
Congressman Number 2: Why? What could go wrong?
Congressman Number 3: I dunno, . . . Let's give him the money and find out!
All: Sounds like a plan!
Fk Citi and their 19% South Dakota usury.
It seems that WSJ is saying that Citi cannot make any big moves with OCC and FDIC approval.. this after more than a third of a trillion... ya... not good.
The OCC and FDIC do not insinuate themselves in the affairs of a bank until it is in the ICU.
Source: The Star Tribune
U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman and his wife, Laurie, have refinanced or changed the terms of their mortgage on their St. Paul house 12 times in the past 14 years.
Ramsey County property tax records indicate the Colemans have assumed greater and greater debt, increasing from a 30-year $172,900 mortgage in 1994 to a 30-year $775,000 mortgage the couple took out in March 2007.
Their house on St. Paul's Osceola Avenue has a 2009 estimated market value of $615,000, according to property tax records, suggesting they may owe substantially more than the property is worth.
The extent of the Colemans' refinancing, first reported Thursday by the online political website Politico, comes to light as Coleman faces continued scrutiny over his personal finances. Allegations have been made in two lawsuits that multimillionaire Nasser Kazeminy attempted to steer $75,000 to Coleman last year from an underwater services company in Texas that Kazeminy controls. In addition, Coleman has also faced questions about his living arrangements in Washington and his relationship with businessman and Republican insider Jeff Larson, who owns the million-dollar Capitol Hill row house where Coleman rents a bedroom and bath.
"C" already has a backstop. No worries.
Franken was declared winner and Coleman is litigating. I volunteered for the recount on behalf of the Franken campaign. The recount was done fairly and openly.
Butter, capital ratio.
Bad feeling is rising.
Something wicked doth come.
The End.
YouTube - The Doors - The end
Basel Too(Good) writes:
\tCan someone translate these for me?
From the CA Depts of Corporation and Real Estate:
DRE brokers can broker to DRE, CFL, RML, state chartered and federally chartered institutions
CFL brokers can only broker to CFL
RML brokers can only broker to RML, state chartered and federally chartered institutions
What are DRE, CFL, and RML?
\t Basel Too | \t \t \t \t01.10.09 - 2:04 am | #
I saw sportsfan already stabbed at this.
DRE is the California Department of Real Estate, Sorry. Page not found. Mortgage brokers under this license also can be real estate brokers. 2 classes - broker and salesperson. A broker can 'hang' his license at up to 3 companies, whereas a salesperson is restricted to a single company. Educational requirements exist but are minimal
CFL is a California Finance Lender, under the Department of Corporations. These licenses are held only by the business owner. Employees are NOT required to be licensed. Many of the fly-by-night boiler room mortgage brokers operated under CFL licenses during the boom, as there are no educational requirements required at all.
I'm not entirely sure, but I think RML is a Residential Mortgage Lender, typically operating under oversight by the OTC. Think of Countrywide, or individual banks. No educational requirement required, and the financial institution holds the license. Back in 03 or 04, Wells Fargo successfully sued the State of California to be able to operate under the less restrictive national supervision of the OTC rather than under the state's CFL licensing, IIRC. Again, no formal educational requirement for mortgage lenders here. The big players and guilty parties operated under RML provisions - CFC, Wamu, Wachovia/World, DSL, First Fed - that is, the POA lenders.
Not that DRE licensees are anywhere close to responsible, but in my experience the greatest malfeasance occured under "supervision" by CFL and bank (RML) licensees.
Offices..what those are good for unless you produce something of value in the FACTORIES? Are EMPTY factories listed somewhere?
Terminat hora diem; terminat auctor opus
Teflon Bob and Banking Deregulation
Teflon Bob and Banking Deregulation
-Date: Sat, 6 Nov 1999 13:25:03 -0500 (EST)
Few top government officials, whether elected or appointed, have managed
to emerge as unscathed from a half dozen years in the Washington, D.C.
spotlight as former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin. And Rubin did better
than escape without scratches -- he ended his term of office with his
image enhanced.
Peacewares - Peace Tshirts, Where's My Bailout T-shirts, Obama Tshirts, Peace Bumperstickers, Tshirts for Kids
Considering how few jobs were created in the last 8 years, this office cycle will probably leave us with similar peak vacancy rates as the last ones. Hate to be pessimistic, but...
Jeez, glad I checked the thread.
So add a quick stop at the bank to the list of what's to be done this morning.
Let's see.
OT to Morocco...took middle kid to see Tom Cruise's "Valkyrie" last night - good movie and engendered decent history lesson.
If Citi implodes, we have a credit event horizon crossed.
Jus sayin.
I'll try to get their recent CDS spreads up shortly.
C
OK, I'm perusing the thread. FFDIC has a link to Yves stuff, which doesn't seem all that alarming.
What did I miss...and by whom?
Nostrovia,
See what happens when you spend all your time playing those silly games, Misean?
Munis next to collapse. Retail investors have no lobby:
The $2.6 trillion muni market is the last bastion of mom-and-pop investors, who arguably require tougher regulatory protection than the institutional investors that dominate the stock and corporate bond markets. Households own more than a third of all municipal bonds directly, and even more through mutual funds. The typical municipal bond trade is for just $25,000.
Regulator Of Bonds Wants More Authority - NY Times
Outsider,
Getting all my shite from XP32 to Fista 64 took most of the night. I'm on 4 hours of sleep. Haven't played anything yet.
After the rifle range today though..it's on.
Nostrovia,
test, missing posts
Russian gas still not flowing to the EU and eastern Europe. Knock-on effects are not entirely clear, but in some of the most economically fragile eastern European countries the gas shut-off is akin to an instant depression in terms of economic activity.
Some other second order effects may be beginning to emerge:
European countries relying on ad hoc deals as gas dispute endures
14:41 Sat 10 Jan 2009 - Clive Leviev-Sawyer
Countries in Central and South Eastern Europe are wheeling and dealing to come up with mutual agreements on natural gas supplies pending a resolution to the Russia Ukraine dispute that has cut off the flow of Gazprom supply.
The 15 countries affected by the January 6 2009 cutoff are Austria, Bulgaria, Bosnia, Croatia, the Czech Republic, France, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Macedonia, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia and Turkey. Supplies to Germany and Poland also decreased.
In Bulgaria, President Georgi Purvanovs office said on January 10 2009 that a deal had been agreed for Ukraine to draw on its own supplies to provide Bulgaria with up to 2.5 million cu m of a gas a day.
European countries relying on ad hoc deals as gas dispute endures - Foreign - The Sofia Echo
What would happen if they put Bush in one of those dollar bill chambers where he has 60 seconds to stuff his pockets with fan blown money and they dumped $350bn into it?
Oh one more thing. Shumer just called my house. Said he LOVES to hike and digs Elvis...
This picture was taken from the roof of the unemployment office.
http://thumbsnap.com/v/zPtV4Ual.jpg
I am feeling that the comments in this CR blog might be morphing into a reverse indicator, damn get my gun?
OT to Morocco...took middle kid to see Tom Cruise's "Valkyrie" last night - good movie and engendered decent history lesson.
Homedad43 | Homepage | 01.10.09 - 8:34 am | #
Pinewood derby is cool, my dad was my pack leader in cub scouts and had a tradition of always making a car that would race the pack winners. Dad was quite the craftsman and the cars were always extremely cool, but slow, so no dnager of showing up the winning kid. However, not sure allowing your kid to put swastika decals on the car is a good thing. Glad you took him for a history lesson. Have not seen Valkarie yet, but might also want to make him see Schindlers List. Another good history lesson in the theatres now is "Milk". Not as well known a story, but an important one.
In terms of actual dollars spent including inflated land prices, I wonder what the graph would look like this boom around.
Obama advisers say plan would create 3.5m new jobs
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
That's right. The current boom for office space was all in Asia.
Fk Citi and their 19% South Dakota usury.
1 currency soon [yogi] | 01.10.09 - 3:19 am | #
it is amusing how people think much of remote flyover country is safe. Sioux Falls is chock full of financial services, credit card processing, payday loan centers, anything else that can take advantage of the SD bank-friendly usury laws. it is subprime credit heaven. Citi etc are major employers and no doubt a huge part of the tax base of the state comes from these operations. nothing would replace them either, if/when it all falls apart.
Nothing personal against those fine Americans, but corporate flight to cheap labor and business friendly regulatory scheme is what it is.
Nothing personal against those fine Americans, but corporate flight to cheap labor and business friendly regulatory scheme is what it is.
1 currency soon [yogi] | 01.10.09 - 1:03 pm | #
exactly. and no small amount of backroom politics I'm sure. loss of banking sector would crater the local economy of course. healthcare, ag products, some manufacturing, colleges/vo-techs would probably survive. also local community banks and credit unions. would not be pretty, regardless.
In the 80's a developer could build office space, have it sit empty, and still make money from the Regan tax policies.