Personally, I am thankful that Obama is being very transparent with his economic plan (Yes We Can -- Print) so that I can invest accordingly.
I just don't understand why so few others on this board don't see this gift for what it is. We will look back at GLD and SLV as buy-and-hold of our lifetime.
Jeeze. I was worried before. If this is normal policy from the incoming administration; "lets talk down to the 4th Grade class again so they can get it" speech.
Madam clerk, please mark Christina Romer video as Exhibit One: In the economic trial we are undergoing, the verdict please? Based on the evidence submitted in the video, the jury can only conclude that we are all doomed.... The sentence? Your browser is now locked and limited to viewing only the material generated from "Change.gov" for the next four years. May God have mercy on your, 'er, our souls.
HGW: I think people in this country are going to become more pessimistic because of the financial difficulties theyre running into and as the quality of living that they desire and have had disappears. Thats going to lead to pessimism and certainly it will make a number of people think about family size.
JEN: Especially if theyre educated. The level of education in this country has not been well supported. And there are religious groups that feel that the most important thing to do is go out and procreate. And evolution tells us that the ones who procreate inherit the earth. [Laughter]
So there is room for pessimism, I grant you. Its not proved that a system that lives in a more balanced way with the earth can make rational choices, but just on the off chance that could happen we felt that it was important to get this information out there. Its the only hope. Its a very narrow way.
E.O. Wilson has said theres going to be a strangle point. How can we slip through and come out on the other side and still have what we feel is the most important thing self-determination? Its a very big question.
They didn't update the video for the new 4M number. It's almost as if the new update was a knee-jerk reaction to the Friday unemployment number and not actually a reasoned estimate.
The video length is 9:11 - coincidence? I think not.
What's with the camera shot of Romer's hands at ~2:50?
I like models, keep changing the inputs until you get the answer you want or just weight the variables in different ways until you are happy. Problem solved.
Gainesville.com | The Gainesville Sun | Gainesville, Fla.: After more than an hour of solemn ceremony naming Rep. Marco Rubio, R-West Miami, as the 2007-08 House speaker, Gov. Jeb Bush stepped to the podium in the House chamber last week and told a short story about "unleashing Chang," his "mystical warrior" friend. Here are Bush's words, spoken before hundreds of lawmakers and politicians: "Chang is a mystical warrior. Chang is somebody who believes in conservative principles, believes in entrepreneurial capitalism, believes in moral values that underpin a free society. I rely on Chang with great regularity in my public life. He has been by my side and sometimes I let him down. But Chang, this mystical warrior, has never let me down."
Bush then unsheathed a golden sword and gave it to Rubio as a gift. "I'm going to bestow to you the sword of a great conservative warrior," he said, as the crowd roared. The crowd, however, could be excused for not understanding Bush's enigmatic foray into the realm of Eastern mysticism. We're here to help. In a 1989 Washington Post article on the politics of tennis, former President George Bush was quoted as threatening to "unleash Chang" as a means of intimidating other players. The saying was apparently quite popular with Gov. Bush's father, and referred to a legendary warrior named Chang who was called upon to settle political disputes in Chinese dynasties of yore. The phrase has evolved, under Gov. Jeb Bush's use, to mean the need to fix conflicts or disagreements over an issue. Faced with a stalemate, the governor apparently "unleashes Chang" as a rhetorical device, signaling it's time to stop arguing and start agreeing. No word on if Rubio will unleash Chang, or the sword, as he faces squabbles in the future.
I'm not inspired nor am I troubled by what saw... it was more of a 'what did you expect?' kind of a reaction. The devil will be in the details & the execution.
This recession like all others will end: a new order at a time. New orders mean new employees and frequently new equipment & materials which results in new orders for somebody else... If the stimulus initiates that process and it remains sustainable - then we'll look back and call it a 'success'... if it falls deadpan, it will be a failure. I have no idea of which will predominate.
"Maybe the camera man likes heavy chicks and was trying to take a peak up her skirt."
I think it was to show she didn't have a wedding ring on her hand. Is there some kind of secret decoder-ring password deal with the kind of ring she had on her left-hand?
My friends didn't care to listen to my cynicism about Obama, but what can you do.
His candidacy was in fact a trailing indicator of a (supposedly) booming economy without limit. All that phony wealth just made people ("educated" people, at that) believe that the dawning of the Age of Aquarius was at hand, and Obama seemed like just the man to usher it in. There was going to be lots and lots of money to make things wunnerful. If they had clearly seen what was coming, the all-consuming euphoria over his candidacy would never have developed. I don't know who people would have preferred, but there wouldn't have been such a sense that we could allow the luxury of a completely inexperienced yet appealingly exotic candidate.
sorry if this offends anyone. I'm a Democrat.
Obama's "coalition" depended heavily on the economy continuing as it was. The wealthier liberals (think: college professors, tech execs) and the struggling working-class (think: blacks and Hispanics) will soon part ideological company during this Depression. Poof, there goes the Obama Coalition. And he seems completely clueless about it. Sorry to say.
Inspiring? Ha. We've forgotten what inspiring sounds like. THIS is inspiring.
"Its a new paradigm, and everybody who doesnt buy, now, will be priced out forever. Anybody who does buy will be rewarded with a lifetime of riches, as their property will continue its 30% yearly price increase.
Renters, and anybody born in a future generation, will not be able to afford a $10,000,000 starter home in 15 years. They will live in tent cities, and Hondas.
This asset bubble is different than all of the others - it will never slow down, or pop. The gains are permanent."
I'll answer my own question. Imports=$2.4T; GDP= $14.4T so percentage of stimulus from tax cuts to foreign providers will be ca. 17%. If half is tax cuts this is 350 x .17= $60B of increased debt to stimulate other countries economies. I suppose this is unavoidable.
I think it was to show she didn't have a wedding ring on her hand. Is there some kind of secret decoder-ring password deal with the kind of ring she had on her left-hand?
Black Star Ranch | 01.11.09 - 11:21 am | #
I'm not sure, but those are some thick fingers. The ring could be used as a napkin ring.
I'm a bit skeptical of the stimulus. Whether or not you agree with the Iraq war, the war has been a major stimulus -- for years. Yet, we have deflation. Where is this money going to come from? Just make sure the money stays in the states as much as possible and is wisely spent but that is sort of a problem with a "global" economic policy. At least, the new president can give a cogent speech which is much appreciated. Maybe, the bad debt should be defaulted first before the spending.
"The wealthier liberals and the struggling working-class will soon part ideological company during this Depression. Poof, there goes the Obama Coalition"
Very good point. I think it will take the entire 8-years though if we have them.
Every President comes from some background or other.
Obama is the first U.S. President since Woodrow Wilson from an academic background. He has no real-world experience in anything. At least Wilson had run a major Ivy League university before he became President.
Obama'a only claim to fame is earning degrees and writing popular books.
The idea that the federal government can create new jobs in specific segments ("where women are a disproportionately large fraction") is straight out of academic circle lunacy.
The scary thing is that apparently the most powerful people in the U.S. government can't see it. It's a bad, bad situation for these times.
OT: All wingnuts have imaginary friends. I think they call these people religious.
I don't see any change that really matters happening under Obama. Systems rarely commit suicide, or allow people in power that are a threat to their existence.
I agree with those above who think the DailyKosophiles are going to be frustrated with Obama. He is a cautious politician. He knows he has a divided Senate to contend with and didn't win the popular vote all that overwhelmingly.
Think about the backtracking he's already made.
Will keep Guantanamo open longer than expected.
Will keep troops in Iraq longer than expected.
Is open to including tax cuts as part of the budget.
Sheila Bair - World's Worst Regulator - to Stay at FDIC -- Seeking Alpha
Sheila Bair - World's Worst Regulator - to Stay at FDIC
Bairs agency hasnt done such a great job preventing whats shaping up to be the next lending train wreck. That would be commercial real estate. The FDIC was basically asleep while the banks it regulates pumped up commercial loan volumes after the housing market cracked. Nowsurprise!delinquencies on those loans are starting to surge, and kick off a second leg to the credit crackup that threatens to prolong the recession. What did FDIC do to restrain the excesses in the CRE market? From what I can tell, nothing. Nobody expects the woman to be clairvoyant, but I dont know of anything Bairs agency did to rein in crazy CRE lending.
I'll answer my own question. Imports=$2.4T; GDP= $14.4T so percentage of stimulus from tax cuts to foreign providers will be ca. 17%. If half is tax cuts this is 350 x .17= $60B of increased debt to stimulate other countries economies. I suppose this is unavoidable. pclema | 01.11.09 - 11:25 am | #
Not only is it unavoidable, it is 'necessary'... the dollar cycle is how we fund the debt for the stimulus among other things. People really do need to understand the world economy is the US economy and vise versa. The thing we have to hope for is that a significant portion of the stimulus rattles around the US economy BEFORE heading offshore... that we have a significant domestic 'job multiplier'. I'd be a lot less worried about this being a waste if I had reassurances of that. That vid clip didn't answer that.
"Romer showed that fiscal policy played a relatively small role in the recovery from the depression in the US, because taxes were raised in the US almost as quickly as government spending increased during the New Deal. However, accidental monetary policy played a large role in the US recovery from depression. This monetary policy came first from the devaluation of the dollar in terms of gold in 1933-1934, and later from the flight of European capital to the relatively stable US as war in Europe became more likely."
A hint of what's to come - devaluation of the dollar. Go long silver, gold and oil...
Even if we go into a depression, the DOW will magically hold 8K. REBear | 01.11.09 - 11:36 am | #
No one is even gonna care what the Dow is if we go into a real depression... even those on this forum who seem fixated by every move up or down the Dow makes... it will be the last thing on their worry list.
I think my issue here -- other than it's all sort of vaporous -- is the confutation of investment in the country with stimulus.
She is trying to thread the needle -- allocating jobs by sector for male-female stimulus balance, etc. And we're also making this forward investment in the economy. So she's already serving two masters before she's even gotten started.
Talk about setting yourself to a Augean chore.
Why not just send everyone a check or otherwise undertake direct relief and spend on infra as, like, a normal part of the budget? Isn't that what the state is supposed to do, spend on infra and other public goods?
Rather than trying to have the Manhattan Project for the smart grid and somehow we are also worried about gender balance of the investment outcome -- that is just bad project management. It is policy determined not by starting with a substantive end state but by looking at what vested interests require propitiation.
It doesn't even have to take place at a separation in time, but trying to do these things as part of one program is just amazingly poor project management, and people are doing it because the WPA is an idee fixe (that's Fraunch).
No don't defend it on the terms of "I haven't seen it yet". I've seen plenty. The reason this is a kitchen sink program is so every dingo gets a mouthful of baby and there's no squabbling. And that's as good as way to run a railroad as any I guess, just as long as you don't care about the size the baby required to bloat every dingo.
Dr. Egon Spengler: I'm worried, Ray. All my readings point to something big on the horizon. Winston Zeddemore: What do you mean, big? Dr. Egon Spengler: Well, let's say this Twinkie represents the normal amount of psychokinetic energy in the New York area. Based on this morning's reading, it would be a Twinkie thirty-five feet long, weighing approximately six hundred pounds.
"... it will be the last thing on their worry list.
dryfly | 01.11.09 - 11:39 am |"
Yeah things like food, shelter and clothing might take priority. Throw in some guns and ammo to fend off the brigands and you'd have your plate full without worrying about where the Dow closed...
Along the thoughts of funding this package, I have the December 2008 end of year Treasury marketable debt maturity profile up (through 2014), showing what needs to be rolled before any new borrowings.
Somali pirate's body washes ashore with $153,000 photo
MOGADISHU, Somalia (AP) - The body of a Somali pirate who drowned just after receiving a huge ransom washed onshore with $153,000 in cash, a resident said Sunday, as the spokesman for another group of pirates promised to soon free a Ukrainian arms ship. Five pirates drowned Friday when their small...
No one is even gonna care what the Dow is if we go into a real depression... even those on this forum who seem fixated by every move up or down the Dow makes... it will be the last thing on their worry list.
dryfly | 01.11.09 - 11:39 am | #
True, but that still doesn't preclude the fact that we have now entered the era of Disaster Capitalism. Enormous wealth will be derived from people's misery, and this will be represented by a stock market that doesn't decline in the face of a depression.
No don't defend it on the terms of "I haven't seen it yet". I've seen plenty. The reason this is a kitchen sink program is so every dingo gets a mouthful of baby and there's no squabbling. And that's as good as way to run a railroad as any I guess, just as long as you don't care about the size the baby required to bloat every dingo. Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.11.09 - 11:40 am | #
Eric writes:
We will look back at GLD and SLV as buy-and-hold of our lifetime.
badger boy | 01.11.09 - 10:57 am | #
Until they rig that market.
Eric | 01.11.09 - 11:23 am |
Yeah that is really the problem. Instead we talk about stimulus and tax cuts instead of building confidence by adjusting the economy to create things of real value.
I am not that troubled by the video. She at least has knowledge of the subject and can discuss it in laymen terms-which means she might understand what it is she is talking about. The level of the discussion I think is more akin to high school freshmen level of discussion, which is above the average level of U.S. Citizen ability to understand. Discussing things at a level that many people can understand is important.
I am getting a little concerned that many are avoiding the tough choices, in the hope that things will get better, without enough sacrifice.
Yesterday one of Madoff's investors who had lost her entire savings claimed she was a savvy businesswoman. She did not understand how the Madoff consistent returns were made, but she thought it had to do with computer programs.
I do not think the businesswoman was aware of the clawback possibilities.
I still think the problem with the econmy is created by desire to use personal computers at work, therefore not producing things of value. Instead we get more worthless spreadsheets calculating investment risk and doing trading by computer. Add in greed and thievery and you end up with a mess.
Give em a hoe and a bag of seeds. Produce. That is what will help the economy.
This lady is morbidly obese. I find that a distraction, truthfully. Jowls and thick fingers like this are basically a big sign that says, "I have no self control." Sad.
When the depression hits, embarrassingly deconditioned people who looked like they walked off the Pixar draft table of WALL*E won't be so numerous. It will be hard to keep the weight on your hulked-out face, legs and ham-hock arms when you ain't got no job. For the same reason, the concept of joining Lifetime fitness/Bally's et al. to "lose weight," will seem a quaint notion.
Agreed, but from levels 30-40% lower than today's spot.
badger boy writes:
I just don't understand why so few others on this board don't see this gift for what it is. We will look back at GLD and SLV as buy-and-hold of our lifetime.
A pipeline carrying crude oil to the refinery in Basra has exploded, causing a huge fire, Iraqi police said.
The police did not give the reason for the blaze but it is believed to have been caused by explosives unidentified gunmen used to detonate the pipeline.
No group has claimed responsibility for the explosion which comes amid fears of a surge in violence in Basra, where most of the countrys oil exports originate.
Basra holds up to 70 percent of proven Iraqi oil reserves of nearly 114 billion barrels and currently produces most of Iraqs oil.
Quotes from the Wise : Week ending January 11th
'The laws of finance are not the same as the laws of nature. Nature does not generally react to the engineer.' - Jon Danielsson
'We don't have taxation without representation. We have taxation without representation we think is less competent than an trained ape.' - LOLFED
'If people can't accept the downside of capitalism they should become socialists.' - Marc Faber
And from the less than wise:
'I bet there's not a single year where I couldn't have gone somewhere else and made more (this bankster made about 115 million over the last several years.) ...I and so many of us who have been involved in this industry for so long did not recognize the serious possibility of the extreme circumstances that the financial system faces today.'- Robert Rubin (Hey Rube, don't let the taxpayer-financed door hit your arse on the way out.)
Posted by Anonymous Monetarist
I saw her video as a 'feel good' exposition that they realize there is a problem and they are working on the problem, which of course is basically what Obama has been saying in his presentations on the subject.
Nothing more, nothing less.
I do get a kick out of the commenters here who have pronounced the plan DOA when the bill has yet to be written, much less considered, by the Congress.
As far as the 4th grade teacher delivery goes... need to be aware of who the audience is here. They are just trying to keep Joe and Jane Schmoe from freaking out at this point. So they are low-balling the extent of the problems.
That said, I am disappointed and underwhelmed as well, and I agree quite a bit with mal's comments above. I think that if all of this crap had occurred about 6 months earlier, we would be seeing this treated with a little more seriousness and we would be seeing fewer schmaltzy Powerpoints and more boldness and directness.
I didn't understand that when I heard it. How can there be no money?
But now I get it. An economy that runs on credit, has no spare cash to invest, when it's busy paying down debt. Mozo Maz | 01.11.09 - 11:46 am | #
At the same time people in Chicago were starving in Hoovervilles farmers down state were burning corn in their wood stoves for heat because the price of corn was SO LOW it was cheaper to burn the corn than buy coal [coal was also cheap but not THAT cheap].
Wrap your head around that paradox and you understand the problem.
CR... I hate to ask for a chart. You have plenty to do. However, you clearly have the skills. I do not.
I would be curious to see a chart of GDP (measured in dollars) divided by USA private sector debt, USA public sector debt, and USA total (private+public)debt. In other words, over time, how much debt went along with a dollar of GDP.
If one follows Cassandra's very good piece on recency bias (which I think is a top 10 piece of 2008) (Blogger: Page not found then such a graph would be useful to swag what "normal" GDP is given "normalized" debt levels, and thus swag SP500 levels.
make sense? See, told ya I am not skilled enough!!
I agree... besides due to multipliers, once loose the money will flow to where the money will flow REGARDLESS of initial gender preference.
Just more corruption and gamesmanship to increase those "Minority-Women-Owned-Business" contracts. I know it drives up costs at the local level when only a few bids come in, and GovCo feels obligated to take the MWBE one.
Heck, my own mother did it once... put in a bid about double what she normally would for an architectual plan. She was the only woman, and got it.
dryfly writes:
"Sure things were cheap, but there was no money"
I didn't understand that when I heard it. How can there be no money?
But now I get it. An economy that runs on credit, has no spare cash to invest, when it's busy paying down debt.
Mozo Maz | 01.11.09 - 11:46 am | #
At the same time people in Chicago were starving in Hoovervilles farmers down state were burning corn in their wood stoves for heat because the price of corn was SO LOW it was cheaper to burn the corn than buy coal [coal was also cheap but not THAT cheap].
Wrap your head around that paradox and you understand the problem.
Someone here posted the definition of deflation. They had heard it 2nd/3rd hand from someone who lived during the Depression. That person said, "In 1929 candy bars cost $.10 and I could afford to buy 1. In 1930 candy bars cost $.05 so I would buy 2. In 1931 candy bars cost $.02 but I couldn't afford any..."
Over under on a few more conditions emerging before the gas starts flowing again (the transit gas to EU+, not the Ukraine bound gas)?
Russia says Europe gas supply deal delayed
58 minutes ago
MOSCOW (AFP) Russia on Sunday said a deal to resume gas supplies to the European Union through pipelines in Ukraine had been delayed as swathes of central Europe and the Balkans remained without heating.
After days of wrangling, Russia and Ukraine signed an EU-brokered accord this weekend to deploy international monitors to verify the flow of Russian gas destined for European consumers via pipelines running through Ukraine.
But Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said energy giant Gazprom would only resume supplies once Russia had a copy of the document signed by Ukraine and once the various teams of international observers were in place. AFP: Russia gas deal collapses
This is nothing but orchestrated PR to "GIT IT SIGNED". Need a lot of special interests on board. And the drama queen will gladly oblige.
The sausage factory will operate behind closed doors after the signatures. Looting and favors will continue uninterrupted. Same as it ever was. Until the music finally stops.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins writes:
"I think my issue here -- other than it's all sort of vaporous -- is the confutation of investment in the country with stimulus.
...
Why not just send everyone a check or otherwise undertake direct relief and spend on infra as, like, a normal part of the budget? Isn't that what the state is supposed to do, spend on infra and other public goods?"
If the target is to stimulate the economy, cutting taxes only gets you so far. The tax cuts will probably get saved (unless they are very evenly distributed). Although savings is a very sensible thing to do from a micro-economic perspective, it doesn't create stimulus (which was the point).
Infrastructure spending only gets you so far as well. It takes time to get approval and this is a problem if the projects kick in only when the economy is already coming out of recession (this is what tended to happen when "Keynesian" economics was the rule). And what to do? Build more highways - which are predicated upon a ready supply of cheap oil?
The problem the government faces is that every policy option is lousy. This is the basis for the argument for doing nothing new - just let the automatic stabilizer of government deficits work. The deficit worriers will wet their pants, but they have been doing that since the end of WWII in every G7 country. However, I recognize that it is genetically impossible for politicians to do nothing, which is why we have these debates.
Closeups on her lap/hands as she flashes masonic secret hand signals during certain phrases, this is obviously a signal to the insect goat overlords that The Obamamonster is willing to play ball.
Half the Obama programs will be building pens to house american citizens like cattle -- Obama himself will be immune from this persecution because the masters of the illuminati have provided him with a fake-falsified birth certificate to prove that he is not in fact an american citizen, when, in fact, he is, but the ruse that he is not is in fact itself a ruse. After we have all been put into pens the goat insect overlords will take our guns -- a vital resource for their race as a status symbol and ornament -- and fly them to their home planet. The only way out of the prison camp will be to perform gay marriage ceremonies and pass a man on man fellatio test and proven subservience to our new black overlords, consisting of Kenyans imported to america to whip us as we haul rocks while riding segways and priuses. The global warming conspiracy will at this time come to its ultimate culmination and reveal its true purpose, blocking out the sun with a gigantic metal disc which will orbit the planet and broadcast socialist ideas at a waveform frequency which can be picked up by dental fillings, provided, of course, by the Obama universal health care plan -- revealing the evil reason behind yet another one of the Obamaniac's schemes to enslave and destroy us all. Essential to this master plan, of course, is his middle name, Hussein, which is a programmed keyword trigger in exactly one half of the American public who have been rendered susceptible to it by means of water fluoridation -- upon hearing the keyword uttered by the Obamanation at a certain pitch and frequency, they will go insane and start voting democrat, the true sign that the world is at an end.
Inflation : Milk is more expensive
Deflation : You are the cow.
Mike in Long Island writes:
Someone here posted the definition of deflation. They had heard it 2nd/3rd hand from someone who lived during the Depression. That person said, "In 1929 candy bars cost $.10 and I could afford to buy 1. In 1930 candy bars cost $.05 so I would buy 2. In 1931 candy bars cost $.02 but I couldn't afford any..."
I still think the problem with the econmy is created by desire to use personal computers at work, therefore not producing things of value. Instead we get more worthless spreadsheets calculating investment risk and doing trading by computer.
There are soooo many people still employed in Financial services, whose job it is to forward spreasheets and powerpoints back and forth, or sit in on teleconferences.
It's just a repecement for the days when office buildings were full of people minding file cabinets and waiting for the phone to ring.
I used to learn things from reading the CR comments. I still learn things... this morning, I've learned:
1. at least one of the commenters is not attracted to large women
2. Obama is the wrong man for the presidency in these times - if only we had someone else, we might get through this mess
3. video editing: cutting to the hands is a bad idea during a policy-type address
Sorry, I guess the current situation has left me completely humorless. It was particularly shocking to hear a discussion on MTP this morning that was only one notch below the worst-case scenarios discussed here.
But Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said energy giant Gazprom would only resume supplies once Russia had a copy of the document signed by Ukraine and once the various teams of international observers were in place.
I THOUGHT I REQUESTED THAT THIS DOCUMENT BE ON CREAM COLORED PARCHMENT... THIS IS NOT PARCHMENT, PARCHMENT IS TEXTURED --- NO GAS FOR YOU!!!!!
There are soooo many people still employed in Financial services, whose job it is to forward spreasheets and powerpoints back and forth, or sit in on teleconferences.
It's just a repecement for the days when office buildings were full of people minding file cabinets and waiting for the phone to ring.
Mozo Maz | 01.11.09 - 11:58 am | #
Too much of this goes on at the FDIC and other bank regulators as well often with no progess and poor results. Seen it with my own red eyes.
By Kyle Hopkins | Anchorage Daily News
The winner of the $500,000 statewide lottery to benefit a nonprofit that aids victims of sexual abuse is himself a convicted sex offender.
Alec Ahsoak, 53, came forward to claim his winnings on Saturday, said lottery organizer Abe Spicola, who owns Lucky Times Pull Tabs in Anchorage.
"He said he was going to buy a house and said he was going to donate part of it to God, and you know charity," Spicola said.
Specifically, Ahsoak said he planned to give $100,000 of the jackpot to Standing Together Against Rape, which paired up with Lucky Times to conduct the lottery, Spicola said.
Ahsoak was convicted of two counts of sexual abuse of a minor in 1993, and once again in 2000, according to the state's sex offender registry and first reported Saturday evening by KTUU, Channel 2.
Hoopajoops, LTD writes:
Closeups on her lap/hands as she flashes masonic secret hand signals during certain phrases, this is obviously a signal to the insect goat overlords that The Obamamonster is willing to play ball.
Does this explain why Hillary killed Vince Foster?
I need to get back in my black helicopter, as I have a appointment with the Queen of England.
Tarp Teat writes:
"CR... I hate to ask for a chart. You have plenty to do. However, you clearly have the skills. I do not.
I would be curious to see a chart of GDP (measured in dollars) divided by USA private sector debt, USA public sector debt, and USA total (private+public)debt. In other words, over time, how much debt went along with a dollar of GDP."
The Flow Of Funds (available on the Fed website) has the data.
One thing is that you have to look at non-financial debt; financial debt has exploded, but financial debt is used to finance positions in other debt, and so it ends up as a form of double-counting. (Although it does tell you the financial sector got too big.)
The trend has been towards higher debt/GDP levels since the end of the 1950s. The Depression wiped out private sector debt, and more importantly, the willingness to take on debt in the private sector. The gov't had a lot of debt as a result of WWII (over 100% of GDP?), but then it was slowly paid down.
However, after the memories of the Great Depression faded, the private sector started levering up. This started the growth of nonfinancial debt versus GDP.
On the whole, all this measure tells you is the willingness of entities to lever up their balance sheet. And there seems to be a generational cycle in that process, so it's hard to make any conclusions from it that are forward-looking.
Participation ribbon society. Nobody should lose even if they made bad decisions. I say give trophies to the winners, let the losers lick their wounds, and start a new game.
Subcommander Doom writes:
Does this explain why Hillary killed Vince Foster?
No, you fool, that is a totally unrelated conspiracy. Hillary "killed" vince foster in the same way you kill your hair when you cut it -- Hillary IS vince foster. And sandy berger, who stuffed secret documents down his pants to impregnate them with HER/HIS DNA so that the next person to touch the document -- Obama -- would be infected with the retrovirus, invented by the last of the hardcore communists hiding in russia, and his DNA would be replaced with that of Hillary's...
Not caring about the Dow level(Unrated) writes: This lady is morbidly obese. I find that a distraction, truthfully. Jowls and thick fingers like this are basically a big sign that says, "I have no self control." Sad.
Ahh, yet another born and bred dope set to the critical task of feeling superior. She's not one of the Elect, it's clear.
Aren't Puritan morals the bomb diggity? Everyone but you and people exactly like you is going to HELL.
There are soooo many people still employed in Financial services, whose job it is to forward spreasheets and powerpoints back and forth, or sit in on teleconferences.
It's just a repecement for the days when office buildings were full of people minding file cabinets and waiting for the phone to ring. Mozo Maz | 01.11.09 - 11:58 am | #
Too much of this goes on at the FDIC and other bank regulators as well often with no progess and poor results. Seen it with my own red eyes. FFDIC | 01.11.09 - 11:59 am | #
The coming job loss among white collar in all sectors (not just financial) is going to be eye popping no matter what the Big O does.
This lady is morbidly obese. I find that a distraction, truthfully. Jowls and thick fingers like this are basically a big sign that says, "I have no self control." Sad.
Ahh, yet another born and bred dope set to the critical task of feeling superior. She's not one of the Elect, it's clear.
“I want to be realistic here, not everything that we talked about during the campaign are we going to be able to do on the pace we had hoped,” Obama said in an interview on ABC’s “This Week” program broadcast this morning. “Everybody’s going to have to give.”
dryfly writes:
"'There are soooo many people still employed in Financial services, whose job it is to forward spreasheets and powerpoints back and forth, or sit in on teleconferences.'
The coming job loss among white collar in all sectors (not just financial) is going to be eye popping no matter what the Big O does."
I'm an optimist. I think people will still be wasting time sending spreadsheets/power points back and forth in offices throughout the coming years. I call it my "conservation of Office" theory. I have heard that even engineers are doing a lot of their "work" using office/power point nowadays. (I was employed briefly in the engineering sector before I went over to the Dark Side; it was before those products took over and apparently the average intelligence level collapsed as a result.)
However, it's a good bet that most of these people will either be working for government, or government-mandated positions (risk officers, etc.).
I talked to somebody that had just retired a couple of years ago about that and the response I got was something like "we were lucky to be able to afford any kind of meat for supper, a STEAK was something you got once or twice a year if you were lucky".
dryfly(Excellent) writes: Besides she was built for comfort not for speed.
And she can seat six in style, but that's not really the point.
I mean, why not rag on her because she's not an Evangelical (aka "real Christian"). I didn't know being photogenic was so important as a policy figure. Wow, he would have made a great Secretary of Defense, but he had BAD HAIR.
People in this country CLEARLY need to have something to cry about, and they are working toward that goal at a historic pace.
"Obama Says Recession Requires Scaling Back Promises"
If he had read a little from CR and the hundred others then he would have seen there would be not money for his give away promises. There is another word for it.
I'm confused, is the stimulus plan part of The FCC conversion to digital?
President-elect Barack Obama's transition team asked Congress on Thursday to delay the shut-off, citing the Commerce Department's running out of money for coupons that subsidize the cost of converter boxes, which allow analog TVs to receive digital signals.
FCC Chairman Kevin J. Martin said at the International Consumer Electronics Show that it is important to make sure that the converter box subsidy program gets back on track, but that it does not mean delaying the analog turnoff is necessary.
Ladies and gentlemen, meet the Liberal-American version of Marie Curie! May God help us all!
P.S. And I thought the Russian politicians were idiots! Silly me!
Mozo Maz(Unrated) writes: Especially high school classroom pictures. The kids plain wiry by today's standards.
My grandfather taught me how you could eat off pigeons you killed with a slingshot and baked clay, and potatoes you stole from the loading dock at the produce wholesale venue.
My mother used to go hunting rats as a girl with her dog Daisy (not as a food source, just for fun) and had three books to share with her 2 brothers and 2 sisters growing up.
"President-elect Barack Obama's transition team asked Congress on Thursday to delay the shut-off, citing the Commerce Department's running out of money for coupons that subsidize the cost of converter boxes, which allow analog TVs to receive digital signals."
Funny since that is a huge cost sink for TV stations to run the two transmitters. Why not fix the coupon program rather than delay the shutoff.
I'm an optimist. I think people will still be wasting time sending spreadsheets/power points back and forth in offices throughout the coming years. I call it my "conservation of Office" theory. I have heard that even engineers are doing a lot of their "work" using office/power point nowadays. (I was employed briefly in the engineering sector before I went over to the Dark Side; it was before those products took over and apparently the average intelligence level collapsed as a result.) bond guy | 01.11.09 - 12:12 pm | #
I understand the concept of 'Conservation of Office' - one more representation of the inevitable result of departmental 'empire building'.
And we use powerpoints in engineering proposals all the time - import graphics form CAD programs (part drawings)... actual pictures, vids, spreadsheets.... and send off to customers for review. It works well for that.
But the difference is we send them to customers NOT for perpetually circulating internal consumption (managerial masturbation)... there is a LOT of MM out there with or without powerpoint, excel, etc., it builds up like crazy in booms just like fuel on the forest floor and then the job loss blows up into mega fires in a bust. The fire hasn't 'crowned' yet but it will. Everywhere I go I hear people talk about the coming layoffs. Everyone is running like crazy from 'dieing' projects and looking to get involved with 'real work'. It is the hot topic where my wife works. It is what I see everywhere I go.
A recent paper by David and Christina Romer of the University of California-Berkeley examined U.S. tax cuts since World War II and found that "tax increases appear to have a very large, sustained, and highly significant negative impact on output ... [and] that tax cuts have very large and persistent positive output effects." Now every economist isn't for every tax cutDavid Romer himself was against the Bush tax cutsbut as a general guideline, lower taxes seem to be better for economic growth than higher taxes.
Why not fix the coupon program rather than delay the shutoff.
The current (Bush) budget deficit is already at $1.2T according to the CBO. We just ran out of money for coupons for folks who need to replace their rabbit ears.
I think we should spend the stimulus money training everybody in the country how to do everybody else's job. When people get too fat sitting in the office, they can work it off next year constructing roads and get a nice tan to boot!
dryfly writes:
This lady is morbidly obese. I find that a distraction, truthfully. Jowls and thick fingers like this are basically a big sign that says, "I have no self control." Sad.
With 35 MIL on food stamps, heading into a depression, with hunger on the rise, a thin spokesperson might convey the wrong image.
No, the downer is that the idiots in my state voted to indebt themselves further with "Brownfield reclamation" projects, gave all the superfund sites to developers for a song, and peddled them as shopping malls and condo complexes.
Well, more of a downer for the people who moved into Love Canal and gloated about how they were taking part in the urban revival. I find it pretty funny. I remember playing on the slag piles as a boy, and how the chromium flakes glittered on my hands. I know where I'm headed.
The dipshits eating their statins an taking their jogs and hoping to squeeze five more years out of the Grim Reaper with clinical necromancy -- and then going back home to breathe in the complex solvent residues -- those guys should be feeling down.
Besides which would you rather have... a jovial and matriarchal spokeswoman or some dark brooding old man? Think of her as our 'Economics Mom' as opposed to past 'Economics Czars' [vision of 'Ivan the Terrible' in a suit comes to mind].
A few economic ancedotes here in Charlotte. "NoDa" is sort of our mini "GasLamp" area (San Diego) or "Hawthorne Ave" (Portland) kinda place. Apparently, discretionary spending is hitting the area, and it may be un-gentrifying.
I noticed some comments on another local forum, from someone a few years ago (an arty type, that makes a living walking dogs) who used to post about his fears of being "priced out" of affordable rentals near uptown. Last night he was commenting on all the deals cropping up, and admitting that things have not turned out that badly.
Elvis(Excellent) writes: "those guys should be feeling down."
But, now I do, too.
Don't buy any more condos that have a piece of impressive looking industrial equipment out front to encapsulate the dynamic heritage of the site and region.
"Don't buy any more condos that have a piece of impressive looking industrial equipment out front to encapsulate the dynamic heritage of the site and region.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins"
What about cabins in the LA swamp that come with their own 3 headed, neighborhood alligators?
On O's stimulus: economics is not a "hard" (i.e. exact) science, every option will be open to debate and conjecture. Looks to me the worry of the moment is really whether the stimulus package (in some reasonable form and limited size) is applied in time to prevent a transition from deep recession to Depression.
There will probably be multiple doses of stimuli needed before this economic episode is behind us.
Perhaps so. But I am sure Ayn Rand is laughing out loud in her grave at the absurdities coming forth now which she prophesized over half a century ago.
Who is John Galt...he is the man who stopped the engines of the world, fed up with the looters.
Mike in Long Island writes:
Throw in some guns and ammo to fend off the brigands and you'd have your plate full without worrying about where the Dow closed...
Such conditions weren't widespread in the last Depression. Why would you expect them to prevail in the (putative) next one? And in previous depressions, plenty of people still concerned themselves with the movements of the stock markets.
Somehow you believe that will be different this [next] time?
I'll offer a prediction: Dow watching will not got out of style in the next 50 years.
When the depression hits, embarrassingly deconditioned people who looked like they walked off the Pixar draft table of WALL*E won't be so numerous. It will be hard to keep the weight on your hulked-out face, legs and ham-hock arms when you ain't got no job. For the same reason, the concept of joining Lifetime fitness/Bally's et al. to "lose weight," will seem a quaint notion.
Full disclosure : I'm short fat farms.
Not caring about the Dow level | 01.11.09 - 11:47 am | #
So true. You didn't see any fat people in those pictures of the concentration camps.
Dr. Egon Spengler: I'm worried, Ray. All my readings point to something big on the horizon.
Winston Zeddemore: What do you mean, big?
Dr. Egon Spengler: Well, let's say this Twinkie represents the normal amount of psychokinetic energy in the New York area. Based on this morning's reading, it would be a Twinkie thirty-five feet long, weighing approximately six hundred pounds.
Funny since that is a huge cost sink for TV stations to run the two transmitters. Why not fix the coupon program rather than delay the shutoff.
Brontide | 01.11.09 - 12:21 pm | #
The masses need their Soma. Without it, they might wake up and start the revolution.
I'm not sure whether those offended by Romer's physical appearance or everyday manner of speaking are easily distracted, overly attentive to dress and other ephemera, or indulging in cattiness for some other reason but the woman is a first rate researcher with credentials on depression economics that rank her with Bernanke and Krugman and the interview makes it clear she is actively involved in analyzing a large set of variables with complex interactions in support of a developing policy.
Those paying attention to what she was actually saying probably noticed she covered a lot of ground but spent some time exploring the nature of jobs created from several perspectives, expressing significant interest in not simply moving part-timers to full-time as a temporary measure but searching for programs or even nascent industries that could make this sustainable within the context of a rejuvenated productivity base; e.g., she did not appear to be talking about service or retail jobs. If that proves a substantive focus of the policy then it will not simply be an injection of money, it will be tied into funding for other projects and programs.
IAC only a fool would discuss developing policy in detail and in the current highly charged sociopolitical environment it would be madness as well; Cristina Romer is congenial, by reputation able to work effectively with others while demanding strong analysis and it seems doubtful she is either fool or mad.
I'll wait to see the plan, and do have concerns regarding rumors of concessions possibly made to trickle-down mythology as a means of gaining Republican support, but have few qualms about the caliber of those Obama has selected to actually help him craft it.
Hoopajoops, that was the fishizzle. It's bizarre how many people took your comedy routine literally. The line between comedy and reality is quickly disintegrating, hence the Jon Stewart Show becomes news for an increasing number of people.
Such conditions weren't widespread in the last Depression. Why would you expect them to prevail in the (putative) next one? And in previous depressions, plenty of people still concerned themselves with the movements of the stock markets.
Somehow you believe that will be different this [next] time?
I'll offer a prediction: Dow watching will not got out of style in the next 50 years.
Corey
You are right there weren't. What is different today is the smaller percentage of the population that is able to provide food for their families without relying on someone else to produce it. I'm not saying Mad Max but if you think for second that there aren't people who would not even think twice about taking things from you and your family by force if necessary to feed their family I think you're delusional.
Will there be widespread disorder - probably not but don't rule it out - see Greece and the rioting in France a few years ago.
All I'm saying is that people will focus more on the day to day than long term. By the time we are in the full depths of a depression - IF we get there - people aren't going to be thinking long term about retirement and the means to achieve it - at least not the vast majority of the populance. I'd be interested in seeing what trading volumes were during the last Depression and overlaying them with volumes today...
I know I'm starting to sound like a broken record here, but everything she said in this piece contradicts her own research, especially her take on tax cuts.
It's strange to have academics producing sales pieces. She sounds like she is on the verge of giggling through most of it.
I could not watch this for more than 3 minutes. The "4th-grade teacher" analogy by Black Star Ranch is very apt. She comes across as very condescending, talking down to us fools.
She thoroughly avoided the main question - why the target is 4 Million jobs, and not 1 Million or 10 Million. You listen to her and she sounds as if the government can create any number of jobs, and that the administration somehow feels that 4 Million is exactly the number that is needed.
Gosh, and back in Nov-Dec I was hoping for a "Blood, Toil, Tears and Sweat" message and approach. How naive of me.
Mike, remember the news coverage of full scale rioting in Asia during 1997? Dunno if it will happen here... but a lot of things we thought could not happen, have!
Imagine evryone in the country discovering they've been "Madoff'd" in a currency crash. Yeah, I thin those are untested waters.
I know I'm starting to sound like a broken record here, but everything she said in this piece contradicts her own research, especially her take on tax cuts.
It's strange to have academics producing sales pieces. She sounds like she is on the verge of giggling through most of it.
Bond Girl
I agree, but like Elvis said, "You're either on the bus or you are off the bus."
My dog looked at me after watching that video and barked:
"I thought Obama said no pork?"
Prognostiscooter | 01.11.09 - 12:26 pm | #
Mine said "roll that wonderful bean footage." And, I swear it's a Golden Retriever. It pains me to think I may have to eat her (my dog, not Romer) in the near future just to survive.
I think someone needs to ask President-elect O just how big this twinkie is.
mal | 01.11.09 - 1:00 pm | #
Well, let's say this Twinkie represents the normal amount of economic stimulus energy in the DC area. Based on this morning's reading, it would be a Twinkie thirty-five feet long, weighing approximately six hundred pounds.
It's strange to have academics producing sales pieces.
This part of Obama's "transparency" theme, to make the behind-the-scenes policymakers public. Since Goldman Sachs won't publicly comment, we're stuck with Romer, Bernstein, and Summers. Still better than having Perino explain this stuff.
This is a personal observation. All the people in my life I have met with what looks like the same personality as Christina Romer have been ineffective but still pretend to be right in their own mind. From what I have seen of this administration so far, we will probably encounter the hands over ears "I can't hear you" syndrome as the academics fall over each other.
What exactly are we going to be manufacturing more of? Big Macs and Whoppers? Weather Helm | 01.11.09 - 1:01 pm | #
There is a lot of mfg out there - just 'cause you don't see it at WalMart doesn't mean it isn't there. For example - next time at a Fast food place - look at all the 'equipment' back behind the counter - many 1000s of dollars of capital virtually all US built. Then consider the equipment in distribution & logistics - also almost all US built. You see this in MANY sectors... transportation, health care, etc.
Most folks have no idea how much mfg there is or what it does for the economy - even though employment in mfg is flat overall & declining as a percentage of the population & economy... increases in mfg activity spill over into large increases in service jobs (finance, insurance, logistics & 'mgmt support'). Most mfg sectors have very high job multipliers and are some of the most 'responsive' to direct stimulus... a smaller amount of money goes farther (than say just a check to spend at WalMart).
dryfly writes: No one is even gonna care what the Dow is if we go into a real depression
True, but any precipitous falls in Dow/SP will accelerate the slide into depression as they will lead to further drop in consumer confidence and with that to drop in consumer spend
True, but any precipitous falls in Dow/SP will accelerate the slide into depression as they will lead to further drop in consumer confidence and with that to drop in consumer spend MrM | 01.11.09 - 1:18 pm | #
Everything I've ever heard or read says declines in stock markets have minor impact on GDP compared to (1) job loss and (2) residental real estate losses. Job loss effects from what I have read in the past (sorry no links - long gone) are order of magnitude more powerful than market losses.
In a television interview on Sunday, Mr. Obama sought to dampen public expectations that his $775 billion stimulus plan, with its emphasis on infrastructure, alternative energy, health care and education, would jolt the economy out of recession. Obama Says Economic Recovery Will Take Time - WSJ.com
rich writes, The idea that the federal government can create new jobs in specific segments ("where women are a disproportionately large fraction") is straight out of academic circle lunacy.
Don't be so quick to judge. I see a boom in housewives, (who can't find any other jobs) female prostitutes, and charwomen.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) told CNN's "Late Edition" that she wants to take immediate steps to repeal President George W. Bush's tax cuts for those earning more than $250,000 a year. "The sooner they are repealed, the less negative impact they'll have on our deficit," Ms. Pelosi said. She said the Democrats instead want to steer personal tax cuts to middle-class Americans.
There have been suggestions that Mr. Obama prefers to wait until the cuts expire at the end of next year. "The Obama administration believes that increasing taxes on any Americans at this point may not be the right medicine," Sen. Dick Durbin (D., Ill.), an Obama ally, told CBS's "Face the Nation."
Many Republicans, meanwhile, remain skeptical of a big boost in deficit spending, and oppose anything that smacks of a tax hike. "At a time of great economic uncertainty, the last thing we want to do is raise taxes on anyone," House Minority Leader John Boehner (R., Ohio) told CBS. "We're going to have a hard enough time coming to agreement on what this package will look like."
Hoopajoops, LTD writes: I THOUGHT I REQUESTED THAT THIS DOCUMENT BE ON CREAM COLORED PARCHMENT... THIS IS NOT PARCHMENT, PARCHMENT IS TEXTURED --- NO GAS FOR YOU!!!!!
It is a tad more complicated. For example, last week the Ukrainian court ruled that the agreement on transit prices, signed in 2006, was invalid - because the person who signed it for the Ukrainian side "was not authorized to sign it" (that was the vice-chairman of the Ukrainian Naphtogaz). So getting the details right is important.
"His candidacy was in fact a trailing indicator of a (supposedly) booming economy without limit. All that phony wealth just made people ("educated" people, at that) believe that the dawning of the Age of Aquarius was at hand,"
Mal,
You could be right, but what I heard was people were thoroughly disgusted with the dishonest, ineffective Bush admin. How many times did I hear people say, My god, he can actually speak English.
His vote against the Iraq war was crucial, something Clinton could never overcome, and his guilelessness contrasted mightily with the evil that is Cheney, Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz.
There was a moral revulsion towards the republicans, and McCain did not help his party.
I'll wait to see the plan, and do have concerns regarding rumors of concessions possibly made to trickle-down mythology as a means of gaining Republican support, but have few qualms about the caliber of those Obama has selected to actually help him craft it.
RW | 01.11.09 - 1:00 pm | #
That's what I'm worried about...concessions to the voodoo crowd, as if that school of thought hasn't been discredited enough already.
Apparently he wants to get 70 or 80 votes in the Senate. Why he thinks he needs to work with the extremists of the GOP is beyond me. Bipartisanship is highly overrated.
Sorry, I can't provide much detail publicly. In my first post, I mentioned that I'm working on collaborative economic development systems.
You may have noticed that the top-down economic development ideas currently on the table don't address the core issues.
You, among a few others on this blog, have noted this, and have some ideas and experience that would be relevant should someone develop bottom-up methods.
My team is.
So why should you be interested?
a. Chance to put your ideas into wider circulation
b. Chance to connect with other entities that need what you do
There are several other reasons, but that's all I'll say publicly at this time.
If that's not enough, I'm happy to take "no" for an answer.
3. What's with the camera shot of Romer's hands at ~2:50?
anonymous | 01.11.09 - 11:10 am | #
DeLong's blog had a group picture of the econ team a few weeks ago, and a closeup showed this lady had three hands (must have been photo-shopped or something). So the joke was she's a three-handed economist (on the other hand...).
My thought was, they just wanted to show that she only has two hands.
but the woman is a first rate researcher with credentials on depression economics that rank her with Bernanke and Krugman
That may be perfectly true, but they could have at least put a bag over her head, and mittens over those chunky penis fingers.
She reminds me of my older sister, in looks and demeanor. My obese older sister once confessed to my wife that she threw a cake away one day, only to retrieve it from the trash outside on the curb the next day to satisfy a sweet carb craving.
This is a personal observation. All the people in my life I have met with what looks like the same personality as Christina Romer have been ineffective but still pretend to be right in their own mind.
Even though she talks like a flipping moron, she writes extremely well. She's probably been around undergraduates too long and lost all sense of maturity. I've just had enough of solutions being advanced by hacks and liars, and I can't see how she does not fit into that category after this. Obama goes to great efforts to surround himself with academics and technocrats, and all of these people are too drunk off optimism to promote anything in line with their own observations.
This sounds more like the TARP everyday. It will just reward a different group.
dryfly writes:
Everything I've ever heard or read says declines in stock markets have minor impact on GDP compared to (1) job loss and (2) residential real estate losses.
Stock market drops -> MSM discusses it non-stop -> consumer confidence drops -> consumers spend less -> economy declines
The correlation between stock market returns and reported consumer confidence can be measured and it is pretty strong.
Back in 1930s most of the population did not care about the stock market because a) there was no telly b) they were not personally exposed. Both of these factors have changed.
Not caring about the Dow level writes: This lady is morbidly obese. I find that a distraction, truthfully. Jowls and thick fingers like this are basically a big sign that says, "I have no self control."
This was known as a "banker's physique" during the last depression. It was much sought after as a sign of prosperity.
I just took another look at that creature.(I needed 2 strong drinks first) I am telling you boys, it is comrade Brezhnev wearing a cheap wig.
Broker | 01.11.09 - 1:05 pm | #
Shades of Janet Reno, or Madeleine Albright. Every Dem Administration must have their man woman. Why can't they have babes like Ann Coulter.
badger boy writes: I just don't understand why so few others on this board don't see this gift for what it is. We will look back at GLD and SLV as buy-and-hold of our lifetime.
Because possibly I'm not the only one who went broke in 2001 and my biggest investments these days are in a tank of gas to get to work and a good meal to survive the day?
"No money" to invest arrived in this household years ago.
Well bring it on, Christina, I still have the $ 600 from the last stimulus collecting interest in my interest bearing checking account, and I'll just add more to it, until you give me some reason for 'hope', like that my house isn't going to be worth less than I owe on it, or it's worth spending that money on house repair/fix-up. But aren't Nobel prize winning economists worthy of consulting on how to make the thing work? And aren't you talking about "voodoo economics" when you talk that way about tax cuts?? Just asking, me being a non-non-economist?
badger boy wrote:
"Personally, I am thankful that Obama is being very transparent with his economic plan (Yes We Can -- Print) so that I can invest accordingly.
I just don't understand why so few others on this board don't see this gift for what it is. We will look back at GLD and SLV as buy-and-hold of our lifetime".
badger boy | 01.11.09 - 10:57 am | #
badger boy, you are right on. There is only one way out of this with the printing presses going full speed. Borrow all the long term money when you can while you can and move it offshore. The debts will be obliterated.
Black Star Ranch wrote:
"....why do I feel like a 10-year old child in a classroom listening to his 4th-grade teacher"?
Black Star Ranch | 01.11.09 - 11:01 am | #
Because that is what the messiah thinks you are along with the rest of his party apparat!
There are parts of the stimulus that are good, parts political and parts just out right terrible.
I think the idea of smart grid is exactly the kind of thing that government should be doing- build and they will come sort of like the interstate system.
However, my problem with the stimulus plan is that it doesn't acknowledge what the problem is - the unsustainability of previous economic model. Until that is done all this is putting "lip stick on a pig".
Gosh, and back in Nov-Dec I was hoping for a "Blood, Toil, Tears and Sweat" message and approach. How naive of me.
MrM | 01.11.09 - 1:05 pm | #
yeah Obama promised to tell the truth- I don't think it counts if you whisper it with your hand over your mouth. Until we recognize the truth -we borrow too much to spend- we will not fix the problem. First step in any recovery process- admit you have a problem. No such luck so far. Not feeling so great about my campaign contributions at this point.
Before anyone else wastes a valuable portion of their life, that they can never get back - instead of reading Atlas Shrugged, just read this: 404 Not Found It's not quite as shallow as Rand, but it still captures the basic story.
fried "what I heard was people were thoroughly disgusted with the dishonest, ineffective Bush admin"
Listen... The American people don't give a rat's ass about honest unless it yields prosperity. And if honesty yields a depression in short order you'll see how quickly one of the chosen one's overlooked stunts from the past becomes impeachment material.
The ONLY way to fix the stock market is to cancel all option grants as compensation, then shut down the derivative market and force companies to use real accounting that is linked to dividends. As for TARP and all the illegal and un-constitutional TARP bullshit and bogus Treasury accounting fraud, that all has to come clean. The chances of any of this happening are about zero, so the markets will remain dead, one way or another!
Are you looking for ideas in general? I run a small engineering group whose aim is to improve efficiency and effectiveness of engineering R&D, improve the manufacturing process, and reduce time-to-market. Customers that use us usually see significant gains in their productivity, and we're trying to get that message out to those in the decision making positions. Engineers are easy sells, management and govt. policy makers are tougher. If you'd like to talk, let me know.
I'll offer a prediction: Dow watching will not got out of style in the next 50 years.
Corey | Homepage | 01.11.09 - 12:50 pm | #
Of course, the Dow is for suckers, same as 401k's.
How many Dow stocks now in the fold were there 70 years ago?
The weak and losers get replaced with winners making a joke of Dow charts and chartists.
Stocks only have value in expected earning and dividends, not growth. When a company stops earning and
paying dividends, it drops in price. Growth is taken care of in the "stops" reference.
The shot of Romer's hands was to show her Harvard class ring. No joke. It was a reminder to the elite of where she comes from and whose interests she represents.
The length at 9:11 could have been so easily fixed and was not. When you prepare a presentation a group of people will watch and make suggestions. Absolutely impossible no one mentioned it and didn't discuss it. To see the Obama admin start playing games like this is infuriating.
so, who will pay for this and at what cost? will the printing press run or will we issue debt? she smiles alot. I don't think she will be smiling for long.
"This is a personal observation. All the people in my life I have met with what looks like the same personality as Christina Romer have been ineffective but still pretend to be right in their own mind."
Exactly my observation, from 15 years in a university town. She studied job demographics to gratify women's groups? That was doubtless rooted in pure concern for effectiveness.
in widescreen format, just like the previous BO piece.
President for the 21st century!
First?
.............third.....
I'm losing confidence.
Personally, I am thankful that Obama is being very transparent with his economic plan (Yes We Can -- Print) so that I can invest accordingly.
I just don't understand why so few others on this board don't see this gift for what it is. We will look back at GLD and SLV as buy-and-hold of our lifetime.
She lost my interest in the first 30 seconds by using the classic "turn the corner" slogan...
....why do I feel like a 10-year old child in a classroom listening to his 4th-grade teacher?
Black Star Ranch, this didn't inspire me ... oh well.
best to all.
Jeeze. I was worried before. If this is normal policy from the incoming administration; "lets talk down to the 4th Grade class again so they can get it" speech.
Madam clerk, please mark Christina Romer video as Exhibit One: In the economic trial we are undergoing, the verdict please? Based on the evidence submitted in the video, the jury can only conclude that we are all doomed.... The sentence? Your browser is now locked and limited to viewing only the material generated from "Change.gov" for the next four years. May God have mercy on your, 'er, our souls.
HGW: I think people in this country are going to become more pessimistic because of the financial difficulties theyre running into and as the quality of living that they desire and have had disappears. Thats going to lead to pessimism and certainly it will make a number of people think about family size.
JEN: Especially if theyre educated. The level of education in this country has not been well supported. And there are religious groups that feel that the most important thing to do is go out and procreate. And evolution tells us that the ones who procreate inherit the earth. [Laughter]
So there is room for pessimism, I grant you. Its not proved that a system that lives in a more balanced way with the earth can make rational choices, but just on the off chance that could happen we felt that it was important to get this information out there. Its the only hope. Its a very narrow way.
E.O. Wilson has said theres going to be a strangle point. How can we slip through and come out on the other side and still have what we feel is the most important thing self-determination? Its a very big question.
CR.....thanks again. THIS is QUITE telling as far as the new administration is concerned. VERY troubling.
I don't find a woman with numerous chins to be very stimulating, but I'm weird like that.
A couple of points.
How much of the tax cut spending will go towards creating jobs for our trading partners rather than in the US?
I thought it was surprising they left in her comments about not really having a very big budget to work with in her analysis.
"They didn't update the video for the new 4M number"
I just thought the media was continually expounding on the original numbers in their apparent excitement and giddiness with "The Chosen One"!
I like models, keep changing the inputs until you get the answer you want or just weight the variables in different ways until you are happy. Problem solved.
3. What's with the camera shot of Romer's hands at ~2:50?
anonymous | 01.11.09 - 11:10 am | #
That was odd. Maybe the camera man likes heavy chicks and was trying to take a peak up her skirt.
All the Bush's are weirdos:
Unleash Chiang Kai-Shek - J. Bradford DeLong's Grasping Reality with All Eight Tentacles
Gainesville.com | The Gainesville Sun | Gainesville, Fla.: After more than an hour of solemn ceremony naming Rep. Marco Rubio, R-West Miami, as the 2007-08 House speaker, Gov. Jeb Bush stepped to the podium in the House chamber last week and told a short story about "unleashing Chang," his "mystical warrior" friend. Here are Bush's words, spoken before hundreds of lawmakers and politicians: "Chang is a mystical warrior. Chang is somebody who believes in conservative principles, believes in entrepreneurial capitalism, believes in moral values that underpin a free society. I rely on Chang with great regularity in my public life. He has been by my side and sometimes I let him down. But Chang, this mystical warrior, has never let me down."
Bush then unsheathed a golden sword and gave it to Rubio as a gift. "I'm going to bestow to you the sword of a great conservative warrior," he said, as the crowd roared. The crowd, however, could be excused for not understanding Bush's enigmatic foray into the realm of Eastern mysticism. We're here to help. In a 1989 Washington Post article on the politics of tennis, former President George Bush was quoted as threatening to "unleash Chang" as a means of intimidating other players. The saying was apparently quite popular with Gov. Bush's father, and referred to a legendary warrior named Chang who was called upon to settle political disputes in Chinese dynasties of yore. The phrase has evolved, under Gov. Jeb Bush's use, to mean the need to fix conflicts or disagreements over an issue. Faced with a stalemate, the governor apparently "unleashes Chang" as a rhetorical device, signaling it's time to stop arguing and start agreeing. No word on if Rubio will unleash Chang, or the sword, as he faces squabbles in the future.
I'd like a "meat & potatoes" speech; (we're spending $1.2m with Crosley Construction to build a big wall south of Galveston) - that kinda thing.
I'm not inspired nor am I troubled by what saw... it was more of a 'what did you expect?' kind of a reaction. The devil will be in the details & the execution.
This recession like all others will end: a new order at a time. New orders mean new employees and frequently new equipment & materials which results in new orders for somebody else... If the stimulus initiates that process and it remains sustainable - then we'll look back and call it a 'success'... if it falls deadpan, it will be a failure. I have no idea of which will predominate.
At least Jeb Bush has "Chang he can believe in"
Re: unemployment
"...7.2 is terrible, but not as bad as 25..."
Clearly, this is an important metric to convey, and she pulled that off brilliantly.
They are showing that she has a nice manicure and gold rings.
She's not the country bumpkin that her face appears.
"Maybe the camera man likes heavy chicks and was trying to take a peak up her skirt."
I think it was to show she didn't have a wedding ring on her hand. Is there some kind of secret decoder-ring password deal with the kind of ring she had on her left-hand?
My friends didn't care to listen to my cynicism about Obama, but what can you do.
His candidacy was in fact a trailing indicator of a (supposedly) booming economy without limit. All that phony wealth just made people ("educated" people, at that) believe that the dawning of the Age of Aquarius was at hand, and Obama seemed like just the man to usher it in. There was going to be lots and lots of money to make things wunnerful. If they had clearly seen what was coming, the all-consuming euphoria over his candidacy would never have developed. I don't know who people would have preferred, but there wouldn't have been such a sense that we could allow the luxury of a completely inexperienced yet appealingly exotic candidate.
sorry if this offends anyone. I'm a Democrat.
Obama's "coalition" depended heavily on the economy continuing as it was. The wealthier liberals (think: college professors, tech execs) and the struggling working-class (think: blacks and Hispanics) will soon part ideological company during this Depression. Poof, there goes the Obama Coalition. And he seems completely clueless about it. Sorry to say.
ot uncommon for overgrown frat boys to come up with names for their junk, apparently Jeb's nickname for lil jeb is Chang
We will look back at GLD and SLV as buy-and-hold of our lifetime.
badger boy | 01.11.09 - 10:57 am | #
Until they rig that market.
Inspiring? Ha. We've forgotten what inspiring sounds like. THIS is inspiring.
"Its a new paradigm, and everybody who doesnt buy, now, will be priced out forever. Anybody who does buy will be rewarded with a lifetime of riches, as their property will continue its 30% yearly price increase.
Renters, and anybody born in a future generation, will not be able to afford a $10,000,000 starter home in 15 years. They will live in tent cities, and Hondas.
This asset bubble is different than all of the others - it will never slow down, or pop. The gains are permanent."
I'll answer my own question. Imports=$2.4T; GDP= $14.4T so percentage of stimulus from tax cuts to foreign providers will be ca. 17%. If half is tax cuts this is 350 x .17= $60B of increased debt to stimulate other countries economies. I suppose this is unavoidable.
I think it was to show she didn't have a wedding ring on her hand. Is there some kind of secret decoder-ring password deal with the kind of ring she had on her left-hand?
Black Star Ranch | 01.11.09 - 11:21 am | #
I'm not sure, but those are some thick fingers. The ring could be used as a napkin ring.
Napkin Rings, Napkin Rings Suppliers, Napkin Rings Wholesale
I'm a bit skeptical of the stimulus. Whether or not you agree with the Iraq war, the war has been a major stimulus -- for years. Yet, we have deflation. Where is this money going to come from? Just make sure the money stays in the states as much as possible and is wisely spent but that is sort of a problem with a "global" economic policy. At least, the new president can give a cogent speech which is much appreciated. Maybe, the bad debt should be defaulted first before the spending.
LOL....I KNEW you were a mean man, MB......
"The wealthier liberals and the struggling working-class will soon part ideological company during this Depression. Poof, there goes the Obama Coalition"
Very good point. I think it will take the entire 8-years though if we have them.
Apparently Jeb's daughter unleashes Chang when she goes to the pharmacy.
What do you expect?
Every President comes from some background or other.
Obama is the first U.S. President since Woodrow Wilson from an academic background. He has no real-world experience in anything. At least Wilson had run a major Ivy League university before he became President.
Obama'a only claim to fame is earning degrees and writing popular books.
The idea that the federal government can create new jobs in specific segments ("where women are a disproportionately large fraction") is straight out of academic circle lunacy.
The scary thing is that apparently the most powerful people in the U.S. government can't see it. It's a bad, bad situation for these times.
You know, they really are gonna create 4 million new jobs.
But it will take three years and four major stimulus packages to do it.
The rest of the world will start to figure this out soon...like about next week.
OT: All wingnuts have imaginary friends. I think they call these people religious.
I don't see any change that really matters happening under Obama. Systems rarely commit suicide, or allow people in power that are a threat to their existence.
Welcome to the United States of Sweden.
I agree with those above who think the DailyKosophiles are going to be frustrated with Obama. He is a cautious politician. He knows he has a divided Senate to contend with and didn't win the popular vote all that overwhelmingly.
Think about the backtracking he's already made.
Will keep Guantanamo open longer than expected.
Will keep troops in Iraq longer than expected.
Is open to including tax cuts as part of the budget.
Isn't going anywhere near the gay marriage stuff.
What do you expect?
I expect the prospective Surgeon General, Sanjay Gupta, to develop a health plan for this woman before Type II Diabetes sets in.
Sheila Bair - World's Worst Regulator - to Stay at FDIC -- Seeking Alpha
Sheila Bair - World's Worst Regulator - to Stay at FDIC
Bairs agency hasnt done such a great job preventing whats shaping up to be the next lending train wreck. That would be commercial real estate. The FDIC was basically asleep while the banks it regulates pumped up commercial loan volumes after the housing market cracked. Nowsurprise!delinquencies on those loans are starting to surge, and kick off a second leg to the credit crackup that threatens to prolong the recession. What did FDIC do to restrain the excesses in the CRE market? From what I can tell, nothing. Nobody expects the woman to be clairvoyant, but I dont know of anything Bairs agency did to rein in crazy CRE lending.
tx_john writes:
I'm a bit skeptical of the stimulus. Whether or not you agree with the Iraq war, the war has been a major stimulus
Stimulus for who? For what? $2 trillion more debt. Stimulus? Good lord, get half a clue.
Is this thread where the fat lady sings? Just sayin...and good mornin..
What happens to these 4 million jobs when the stimulus money has been spent?
I got your "shovel ready" RIGHT HERE
Until they rig that market.
Eric | 01.11.09 - 11:23 am |
they already have, but they can't hold back the flood gates forever
That didn't leave me feeling overly impressed.
The comment about 7.2% being no where near as bad as 25% struck me as a bit of foreshadowing...
I'll answer my own question. Imports=$2.4T; GDP= $14.4T so percentage of stimulus from tax cuts to foreign providers will be ca. 17%. If half is tax cuts this is 350 x .17= $60B of increased debt to stimulate other countries economies. I suppose this is unavoidable.
pclema | 01.11.09 - 11:25 am | #
Not only is it unavoidable, it is 'necessary'... the dollar cycle is how we fund the debt for the stimulus among other things. People really do need to understand the world economy is the US economy and vise versa. The thing we have to hope for is that a significant portion of the stimulus rattles around the US economy BEFORE heading offshore... that we have a significant domestic 'job multiplier'. I'd be a lot less worried about this being a waste if I had reassurances of that. That vid clip didn't answer that.
but they can't hold back the flood gates forever
Markar | 01.11.09 - 11:34 am | #
They don't need forever. They just need to shake out the weak longs.
Even if we go into a depression, the DOW will magically hold 8K.
The comment about 7.2% being no where near as bad as 25% struck me as a bit of foreshadowing...
Mike in Long Island | 01.11.09 - 11:35 am | #
It is always what isn't said that scares more than what is said...
The obama team has mastered the art of "low" information.
Purple suit -> unity
Gold lamp -> prosperity
Harvard ring -> competence
Or maybe not:
Purple suit -> color of royalty
Gold lamp -> skyrocketing commodities
Harvard ring -> kiss the ring
From the wiki entry on Christina Romer,
"Romer showed that fiscal policy played a relatively small role in the recovery from the depression in the US, because taxes were raised in the US almost as quickly as government spending increased during the New Deal. However, accidental monetary policy played a large role in the US recovery from depression. This monetary policy came first from the devaluation of the dollar in terms of gold in 1933-1934, and later from the flight of European capital to the relatively stable US as war in Europe became more likely."
A hint of what's to come - devaluation of the dollar. Go long silver, gold and oil...
"He is a cautious politician."
He is Clinton in a darker shade of pale.
Even if we go into a depression, the DOW will magically hold 8K.
REBear | 01.11.09 - 11:36 am | #
No one is even gonna care what the Dow is if we go into a real depression... even those on this forum who seem fixated by every move up or down the Dow makes... it will be the last thing on their worry list.
Another failed Jenny Craig success story...
Is this thread where the fat lady sings? Just sayin...and good mornin..
FFDIC | 01.11.09 - 11:31 am | #
LOL!!!
I think my issue here -- other than it's all sort of vaporous -- is the confutation of investment in the country with stimulus.
She is trying to thread the needle -- allocating jobs by sector for male-female stimulus balance, etc. And we're also making this forward investment in the economy. So she's already serving two masters before she's even gotten started.
Talk about setting yourself to a Augean chore.
Why not just send everyone a check or otherwise undertake direct relief and spend on infra as, like, a normal part of the budget? Isn't that what the state is supposed to do, spend on infra and other public goods?
Rather than trying to have the Manhattan Project for the smart grid and somehow we are also worried about gender balance of the investment outcome -- that is just bad project management. It is policy determined not by starting with a substantive end state but by looking at what vested interests require propitiation.
It doesn't even have to take place at a separation in time, but trying to do these things as part of one program is just amazingly poor project management, and people are doing it because the WPA is an idee fixe (that's Fraunch).
No don't defend it on the terms of "I haven't seen it yet". I've seen plenty. The reason this is a kitchen sink program is so every dingo gets a mouthful of baby and there's no squabbling. And that's as good as way to run a railroad as any I guess, just as long as you don't care about the size the baby required to bloat every dingo.
Dr. Egon Spengler: I'm worried, Ray. All my readings point to something big on the horizon.
Winston Zeddemore: What do you mean, big?
Dr. Egon Spengler: Well, let's say this Twinkie represents the normal amount of psychokinetic energy in the New York area. Based on this morning's reading, it would be a Twinkie thirty-five feet long, weighing approximately six hundred pounds.
"... it will be the last thing on their worry list.
dryfly | 01.11.09 - 11:39 am |"
Yeah things like food, shelter and clothing might take priority. Throw in some guns and ammo to fend off the brigands and you'd have your plate full without worrying about where the Dow closed...
Along the thoughts of funding this package, I have the December 2008 end of year Treasury marketable debt maturity profile up (through 2014), showing what needs to be rolled before any new borrowings.
Somali pirate's body washes ashore with $153,000 photo
MOGADISHU, Somalia (AP) - The body of a Somali pirate who drowned just after receiving a huge ransom washed onshore with $153,000 in cash, a resident said Sunday, as the spokesman for another group of pirates promised to soon free a Ukrainian arms ship. Five pirates drowned Friday when their small...
No one is even gonna care what the Dow is if we go into a real depression... even those on this forum who seem fixated by every move up or down the Dow makes... it will be the last thing on their worry list.
dryfly | 01.11.09 - 11:39 am | #
True, but that still doesn't preclude the fact that we have now entered the era of Disaster Capitalism. Enormous wealth will be derived from people's misery, and this will be represented by a stock market that doesn't decline in the face of a depression.
"Black Star Ranch writes:
....why do I feel like a 10-year old child in a classroom listening to his 4th-grade teacher?"
That is how I felt about OB's campaign.
Talk about setting yourself to a Augean chore.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.11.09 - 11:40 am | #
I agree... besides due to multipliers, once loose the money will flow to where the money will flow REGARDLESS of initial gender preference.
rich(Excellent) writes:
The rest of the world will start to figure this out soon...like about next week.
Is that a call?
404 Error, No such article | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle
Somali pirates body washes ashore with $153,000
Rather than trying to have the Manhattan Project for the smart grid and somehow we are also worried about gender balance of the investment outcome
Summers was worried about the task of cooking for and washing the clothes of all the Manhattan Project engineers.
No one is even gonna care what the Dow is if we go into a real depression...
That's one thing I've come to understand today, that I didn't understand when I hard the following quote about the GD:
"Sure things were cheap, but there was no money"
I didn't understand that when I heard it. How can there be no money?
But now I get it. An economy that runs on credit, has no spare cash to invest, when it's busy paying down debt.
CB_R,
"Fraunch fries, fraunch toast and to drink, Peru!"
No don't defend it on the terms of "I haven't seen it yet". I've seen plenty. The reason this is a kitchen sink program is so every dingo gets a mouthful of baby and there's no squabbling. And that's as good as way to run a railroad as any I guess, just as long as you don't care about the size the baby required to bloat every dingo.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.11.09 - 11:40 am | #
Peak Baby?
Their unemployment graph looks like the bunny slope compared to the latest on brad sester's site
Eric writes:
We will look back at GLD and SLV as buy-and-hold of our lifetime.
badger boy | 01.11.09 - 10:57 am | #
Until they rig that market.
Eric | 01.11.09 - 11:23 am |
Yeah that is really the problem. Instead we talk about stimulus and tax cuts instead of building confidence by adjusting the economy to create things of real value.
I am not that troubled by the video. She at least has knowledge of the subject and can discuss it in laymen terms-which means she might understand what it is she is talking about. The level of the discussion I think is more akin to high school freshmen level of discussion, which is above the average level of U.S. Citizen ability to understand. Discussing things at a level that many people can understand is important.
I am getting a little concerned that many are avoiding the tough choices, in the hope that things will get better, without enough sacrifice.
Yesterday one of Madoff's investors who had lost her entire savings claimed she was a savvy businesswoman. She did not understand how the Madoff consistent returns were made, but she thought it had to do with computer programs.
I do not think the businesswoman was aware of the clawback possibilities.
I still think the problem with the econmy is created by desire to use personal computers at work, therefore not producing things of value. Instead we get more worthless spreadsheets calculating investment risk and doing trading by computer. Add in greed and thievery and you end up with a mess.
Give em a hoe and a bag of seeds. Produce. That is what will help the economy.
Reading and posting to CR does what? Sorry.
This lady is morbidly obese. I find that a distraction, truthfully. Jowls and thick fingers like this are basically a big sign that says, "I have no self control." Sad.
When the depression hits, embarrassingly deconditioned people who looked like they walked off the Pixar draft table of WALL*E won't be so numerous. It will be hard to keep the weight on your hulked-out face, legs and ham-hock arms when you ain't got no job. For the same reason, the concept of joining Lifetime fitness/Bally's et al. to "lose weight," will seem a quaint notion.
Full disclosure : I'm short fat farms.
YouTube - It is not over until the fat lady sings
For dryfly | 01.11.09 - 11:40 am | #
Agreed, but from levels 30-40% lower than today's spot.
badger boy writes:
I just don't understand why so few others on this board don't see this gift for what it is. We will look back at GLD and SLV as buy-and-hold of our lifetime.
Azzaman, January 11, 2009
A pipeline carrying crude oil to the refinery in Basra has exploded, causing a huge fire, Iraqi police said.
The police did not give the reason for the blaze but it is believed to have been caused by explosives unidentified gunmen used to detonate the pipeline.
No group has claimed responsibility for the explosion which comes amid fears of a surge in violence in Basra, where most of the countrys oil exports originate.
Basra holds up to 70 percent of proven Iraqi oil reserves of nearly 114 billion barrels and currently produces most of Iraqs oil.
Quotes from the Wise : Week ending January 11th
'The laws of finance are not the same as the laws of nature. Nature does not generally react to the engineer.' - Jon Danielsson
'We don't have taxation without representation. We have taxation without representation we think is less competent than an trained ape.' - LOLFED
'If people can't accept the downside of capitalism they should become socialists.' - Marc Faber
And from the less than wise:
'I bet there's not a single year where I couldn't have gone somewhere else and made more (this bankster made about 115 million over the last several years.) ...I and so many of us who have been involved in this industry for so long did not recognize the serious possibility of the extreme circumstances that the financial system faces today.'- Robert Rubin (Hey Rube, don't let the taxpayer-financed door hit your arse on the way out.)
Posted by Anonymous Monetarist
Morroco Bama, you are an obnoxious, sexist pig.
I saw her video as a 'feel good' exposition that they realize there is a problem and they are working on the problem, which of course is basically what Obama has been saying in his presentations on the subject.
Nothing more, nothing less.
I do get a kick out of the commenters here who have pronounced the plan DOA when the bill has yet to be written, much less considered, by the Congress.
As far as the 4th grade teacher delivery goes... need to be aware of who the audience is here. They are just trying to keep Joe and Jane Schmoe from freaking out at this point. So they are low-balling the extent of the problems.
That said, I am disappointed and underwhelmed as well, and I agree quite a bit with mal's comments above. I think that if all of this crap had occurred about 6 months earlier, we would be seeing this treated with a little more seriousness and we would be seeing fewer schmaltzy Powerpoints and more boldness and directness.
"Sure things were cheap, but there was no money"
I didn't understand that when I heard it. How can there be no money?
But now I get it. An economy that runs on credit, has no spare cash to invest, when it's busy paying down debt.
Mozo Maz | 01.11.09 - 11:46 am | #
At the same time people in Chicago were starving in Hoovervilles farmers down state were burning corn in their wood stoves for heat because the price of corn was SO LOW it was cheaper to burn the corn than buy coal [coal was also cheap but not THAT cheap].
Wrap your head around that paradox and you understand the problem.
CR... I hate to ask for a chart. You have plenty to do. However, you clearly have the skills. I do not.
I would be curious to see a chart of GDP (measured in dollars) divided by USA private sector debt, USA public sector debt, and USA total (private+public)debt. In other words, over time, how much debt went along with a dollar of GDP.
If one follows Cassandra's very good piece on recency bias (which I think is a top 10 piece of 2008) (Blogger: Page not found then such a graph would be useful to swag what "normal" GDP is given "normalized" debt levels, and thus swag SP500 levels.
make sense? See, told ya I am not skilled enough!!
I agree... besides due to multipliers, once loose the money will flow to where the money will flow REGARDLESS of initial gender preference.
Just more corruption and gamesmanship to increase those "Minority-Women-Owned-Business" contracts. I know it drives up costs at the local level when only a few bids come in, and GovCo feels obligated to take the MWBE one.
Heck, my own mother did it once... put in a bid about double what she normally would for an architectual plan. She was the only woman, and got it.
dryfly writes:
"Sure things were cheap, but there was no money"
I didn't understand that when I heard it. How can there be no money?
But now I get it. An economy that runs on credit, has no spare cash to invest, when it's busy paying down debt.
Mozo Maz | 01.11.09 - 11:46 am | #
At the same time people in Chicago were starving in Hoovervilles farmers down state were burning corn in their wood stoves for heat because the price of corn was SO LOW it was cheaper to burn the corn than buy coal [coal was also cheap but not THAT cheap].
Wrap your head around that paradox and you understand the problem.
Someone here posted the definition of deflation. They had heard it 2nd/3rd hand from someone who lived during the Depression. That person said, "In 1929 candy bars cost $.10 and I could afford to buy 1. In 1930 candy bars cost $.05 so I would buy 2. In 1931 candy bars cost $.02 but I couldn't afford any..."
If housing continues to lose value next year, and I expect it certainly will, the economy will not improve. You can put it in your book...
Wake me up in 12 months...
"The rest of the world will start to figure this out soon...like about next week" *
*at which point my PM portfolio will explode, I tell you. EXPLODE!
I think we can assume that sentence ending is attached to anything Rich submits here.
Over under on a few more conditions emerging before the gas starts flowing again (the transit gas to EU+, not the Ukraine bound gas)?
Russia says Europe gas supply deal delayed
58 minutes ago
MOSCOW (AFP) Russia on Sunday said a deal to resume gas supplies to the European Union through pipelines in Ukraine had been delayed as swathes of central Europe and the Balkans remained without heating.
After days of wrangling, Russia and Ukraine signed an EU-brokered accord this weekend to deploy international monitors to verify the flow of Russian gas destined for European consumers via pipelines running through Ukraine.
But Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said energy giant Gazprom would only resume supplies once Russia had a copy of the document signed by Ukraine and once the various teams of international observers were in place.
AFP: Russia gas deal collapses
This is nothing but orchestrated PR to "GIT IT SIGNED". Need a lot of special interests on board. And the drama queen will gladly oblige.
The sausage factory will operate behind closed doors after the signatures. Looting and favors will continue uninterrupted. Same as it ever was. Until the music finally stops.
3 million jobs with what kind of income levels and at what cost?
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins writes:
"I think my issue here -- other than it's all sort of vaporous -- is the confutation of investment in the country with stimulus.
...
Why not just send everyone a check or otherwise undertake direct relief and spend on infra as, like, a normal part of the budget? Isn't that what the state is supposed to do, spend on infra and other public goods?"
If the target is to stimulate the economy, cutting taxes only gets you so far. The tax cuts will probably get saved (unless they are very evenly distributed). Although savings is a very sensible thing to do from a micro-economic perspective, it doesn't create stimulus (which was the point).
Infrastructure spending only gets you so far as well. It takes time to get approval and this is a problem if the projects kick in only when the economy is already coming out of recession (this is what tended to happen when "Keynesian" economics was the rule). And what to do? Build more highways - which are predicated upon a ready supply of cheap oil?
The problem the government faces is that every policy option is lousy. This is the basis for the argument for doing nothing new - just let the automatic stabilizer of government deficits work. The deficit worriers will wet their pants, but they have been doing that since the end of WWII in every G7 country. However, I recognize that it is genetically impossible for politicians to do nothing, which is why we have these debates.
rich has been totally open about his perspective and position.
While not everyone agrees with his analysis, he is well regarded.
All of these big plans are going to be side tracked by the next war or one of the two Bush started and has not ended. Isn't that Monica's old dress?
Closeups on her lap/hands as she flashes masonic secret hand signals during certain phrases, this is obviously a signal to the insect goat overlords that The Obamamonster is willing to play ball.
Half the Obama programs will be building pens to house american citizens like cattle -- Obama himself will be immune from this persecution because the masters of the illuminati have provided him with a fake-falsified birth certificate to prove that he is not in fact an american citizen, when, in fact, he is, but the ruse that he is not is in fact itself a ruse. After we have all been put into pens the goat insect overlords will take our guns -- a vital resource for their race as a status symbol and ornament -- and fly them to their home planet. The only way out of the prison camp will be to perform gay marriage ceremonies and pass a man on man fellatio test and proven subservience to our new black overlords, consisting of Kenyans imported to america to whip us as we haul rocks while riding segways and priuses. The global warming conspiracy will at this time come to its ultimate culmination and reveal its true purpose, blocking out the sun with a gigantic metal disc which will orbit the planet and broadcast socialist ideas at a waveform frequency which can be picked up by dental fillings, provided, of course, by the Obama universal health care plan -- revealing the evil reason behind yet another one of the Obamaniac's schemes to enslave and destroy us all. Essential to this master plan, of course, is his middle name, Hussein, which is a programmed keyword trigger in exactly one half of the American public who have been rendered susceptible to it by means of water fluoridation -- upon hearing the keyword uttered by the Obamanation at a certain pitch and frequency, they will go insane and start voting democrat, the true sign that the world is at an end.
Men argue; nature acts.
Voltaire
Inflation : Milk is more expensive
Deflation : You are the cow.
Mike in Long Island writes:
Someone here posted the definition of deflation. They had heard it 2nd/3rd hand from someone who lived during the Depression. That person said, "In 1929 candy bars cost $.10 and I could afford to buy 1. In 1930 candy bars cost $.05 so I would buy 2. In 1931 candy bars cost $.02 but I couldn't afford any..."
I still think the problem with the econmy is created by desire to use personal computers at work, therefore not producing things of value. Instead we get more worthless spreadsheets calculating investment risk and doing trading by computer.
There are soooo many people still employed in Financial services, whose job it is to forward spreasheets and powerpoints back and forth, or sit in on teleconferences.
It's just a repecement for the days when office buildings were full of people minding file cabinets and waiting for the phone to ring.
I used to learn things from reading the CR comments. I still learn things... this morning, I've learned:
1. at least one of the commenters is not attracted to large women
2. Obama is the wrong man for the presidency in these times - if only we had someone else, we might get through this mess
3. video editing: cutting to the hands is a bad idea during a policy-type address
Sorry, I guess the current situation has left me completely humorless. It was particularly shocking to hear a discussion on MTP this morning that was only one notch below the worst-case scenarios discussed here.
But Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said energy giant Gazprom would only resume supplies once Russia had a copy of the document signed by Ukraine and once the various teams of international observers were in place.
I THOUGHT I REQUESTED THAT THIS DOCUMENT BE ON CREAM COLORED PARCHMENT... THIS IS NOT PARCHMENT, PARCHMENT IS TEXTURED --- NO GAS FOR YOU!!!!!
There are soooo many people still employed in Financial services, whose job it is to forward spreasheets and powerpoints back and forth, or sit in on teleconferences.
It's just a repecement for the days when office buildings were full of people minding file cabinets and waiting for the phone to ring.
Mozo Maz | 01.11.09 - 11:58 am | #
Too much of this goes on at the FDIC and other bank regulators as well often with no progess and poor results. Seen it with my own red eyes.
By Kyle Hopkins | Anchorage Daily News
The winner of the $500,000 statewide lottery to benefit a nonprofit that aids victims of sexual abuse is himself a convicted sex offender.
Alec Ahsoak, 53, came forward to claim his winnings on Saturday, said lottery organizer Abe Spicola, who owns Lucky Times Pull Tabs in Anchorage.
"He said he was going to buy a house and said he was going to donate part of it to God, and you know charity," Spicola said.
Specifically, Ahsoak said he planned to give $100,000 of the jackpot to Standing Together Against Rape, which paired up with Lucky Times to conduct the lottery, Spicola said.
Ahsoak was convicted of two counts of sexual abuse of a minor in 1993, and once again in 2000, according to the state's sex offender registry and first reported Saturday evening by KTUU, Channel 2.
All citizens are hereby empowered to pull on the rope of financial resolution. Welcome to the Chang Gang.
This is nothing but orchestrated PR to "GIT IT SIGNED".
bearly | 01.11.09 - 11:54 am | #
Yup. More 'change' as in "the more things change the more they remain the same"...
Hoopajoops, LTD writes:
Closeups on her lap/hands as she flashes masonic secret hand signals during certain phrases, this is obviously a signal to the insect goat overlords that The Obamamonster is willing to play ball.
Does this explain why Hillary killed Vince Foster?
I need to get back in my black helicopter, as I have a appointment with the Queen of England.
"....The reason this is a kitchen sink program is so every dingo gets a mouthful of baby and there's no squabbling...."
So have we gone from ponies to babies?
Geez! This could get fattening...
Ahhh...the Employment Bubble!
Tarp Teat writes:
"CR... I hate to ask for a chart. You have plenty to do. However, you clearly have the skills. I do not.
I would be curious to see a chart of GDP (measured in dollars) divided by USA private sector debt, USA public sector debt, and USA total (private+public)debt. In other words, over time, how much debt went along with a dollar of GDP."
The Flow Of Funds (available on the Fed website) has the data.
One thing is that you have to look at non-financial debt; financial debt has exploded, but financial debt is used to finance positions in other debt, and so it ends up as a form of double-counting. (Although it does tell you the financial sector got too big.)
The trend has been towards higher debt/GDP levels since the end of the 1950s. The Depression wiped out private sector debt, and more importantly, the willingness to take on debt in the private sector. The gov't had a lot of debt as a result of WWII (over 100% of GDP?), but then it was slowly paid down.
However, after the memories of the Great Depression faded, the private sector started levering up. This started the growth of nonfinancial debt versus GDP.
On the whole, all this measure tells you is the willingness of entities to lever up their balance sheet. And there seems to be a generational cycle in that process, so it's hard to make any conclusions from it that are forward-looking.
Participation ribbon society. Nobody should lose even if they made bad decisions. I say give trophies to the winners, let the losers lick their wounds, and start a new game.
Subcommander Doom writes:
Does this explain why Hillary killed Vince Foster?
No, you fool, that is a totally unrelated conspiracy. Hillary "killed" vince foster in the same way you kill your hair when you cut it -- Hillary IS vince foster. And sandy berger, who stuffed secret documents down his pants to impregnate them with HER/HIS DNA so that the next person to touch the document -- Obama -- would be infected with the retrovirus, invented by the last of the hardcore communists hiding in russia, and his DNA would be replaced with that of Hillary's...
Not caring about the Dow level(Unrated) writes:
This lady is morbidly obese. I find that a distraction, truthfully. Jowls and thick fingers like this are basically a big sign that says, "I have no self control." Sad.
Ahh, yet another born and bred dope set to the critical task of feeling superior. She's not one of the Elect, it's clear.
Aren't Puritan morals the bomb diggity? Everyone but you and people exactly like you is going to HELL.
Well, I'm certainly relieved that the new administration has a plan to fix all of this.
There are soooo many people still employed in Financial services, whose job it is to forward spreasheets and powerpoints back and forth, or sit in on teleconferences.
It's just a repecement for the days when office buildings were full of people minding file cabinets and waiting for the phone to ring.
Mozo Maz | 01.11.09 - 11:58 am | #
Too much of this goes on at the FDIC and other bank regulators as well often with no progess and poor results. Seen it with my own red eyes.
FFDIC | 01.11.09 - 11:59 am | #
The coming job loss among white collar in all sectors (not just financial) is going to be eye popping no matter what the Big O does.
: )
This lady is morbidly obese. I find that a distraction, truthfully. Jowls and thick fingers like this are basically a big sign that says, "I have no self control." Sad.
Ahh, yet another born and bred dope set to the critical task of feeling superior. She's not one of the Elect, it's clear.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.11.09 - 12:05 pm | #
Besides she was built for comfort not for speed.
How many people actually dress up for work anymore? I think white collar jobs should just be called the "jobs formerly known as white collar."
I do find it fascinating to look at old "crowd shots" of the US population prior to 1960, and note how few fat people were in them.
Especially high school classroom pictures. The kids plain wiry by today's standards.
The coming job loss among white collar in all sectors (not just financial) is going to be eye popping no matter what the Big O does.
dryfly | 01.11.09 - 12:05 pm
I think Oscar Robertson got a trademark on "The Big O."
Meanwhile, FFDIC saw too much of this at the FDIC with his own red eyes.
Well, those of us who don't work for the government just assume that is what happens at every government office at every level.
Obama Says Recession Requires Scaling Back Promises
Obama Says Recession Requires Scaling Back Promises (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
“I want to be realistic here, not everything that we talked about during the campaign are we going to be able to do on the pace we had hoped,” Obama said in an interview on ABC’s “This Week” program broadcast this morning. “Everybody’s going to have to give.”
Hoopajoops, LTD | 01.11.09 - 12:04 pm | #
Still laughing!
"Especially high school classroom pictures. The kids plain wiry by today's standards.
Mozo Maz "
Should the 2012 campaign motto be "Three bags of Cheetos in every pot."?
dryfly writes:
"'There are soooo many people still employed in Financial services, whose job it is to forward spreasheets and powerpoints back and forth, or sit in on teleconferences.'
The coming job loss among white collar in all sectors (not just financial) is going to be eye popping no matter what the Big O does."
I'm an optimist. I think people will still be wasting time sending spreadsheets/power points back and forth in offices throughout the coming years. I call it my "conservation of Office" theory. I have heard that even engineers are doing a lot of their "work" using office/power point nowadays. (I was employed briefly in the engineering sector before I went over to the Dark Side; it was before those products took over and apparently the average intelligence level collapsed as a result.)
However, it's a good bet that most of these people will either be working for government, or government-mandated positions (risk officers, etc.).
The kids plain wiry by today's standards.
I talked to somebody that had just retired a couple of years ago about that and the response I got was something like "we were lucky to be able to afford any kind of meat for supper, a STEAK was something you got once or twice a year if you were lucky".
""we were lucky to be able to afford any kind of meat for supper, a STEAK was something you got once or twice a year if you were lucky"."
Just means their dads were bad shots. Hunting anyone?
dryfly(Excellent) writes:
Besides she was built for comfort not for speed.
And she can seat six in style, but that's not really the point.
I mean, why not rag on her because she's not an Evangelical (aka "real Christian"). I didn't know being photogenic was so important as a policy figure. Wow, he would have made a great Secretary of Defense, but he had BAD HAIR.
People in this country CLEARLY need to have something to cry about, and they are working toward that goal at a historic pace.
"Obama Says Recession Requires Scaling Back Promises"
If he had read a little from CR and the hundred others then he would have seen there would be not money for his give away promises. There is another word for it.
I'm confused, is the stimulus plan part of The FCC conversion to digital?
President-elect Barack Obama's transition team asked Congress on Thursday to delay the shut-off, citing the Commerce Department's running out of money for coupons that subsidize the cost of converter boxes, which allow analog TVs to receive digital signals.
FCC Chairman Kevin J. Martin said at the International Consumer Electronics Show that it is important to make sure that the converter box subsidy program gets back on track, but that it does not mean delaying the analog turnoff is necessary.
I didn't know being photogenic was so important as a policy figure.
Something about being a "born and bred dope" comes to mind.
Ladies and gentlemen, meet the Liberal-American version of Marie Curie! May God help us all!
P.S. And I thought the Russian politicians were idiots! Silly me!
Mozo Maz(Unrated) writes:
Especially high school classroom pictures. The kids plain wiry by today's standards.
My grandfather taught me how you could eat off pigeons you killed with a slingshot and baked clay, and potatoes you stole from the loading dock at the produce wholesale venue.
My mother used to go hunting rats as a girl with her dog Daisy (not as a food source, just for fun) and had three books to share with her 2 brothers and 2 sisters growing up.
Wonder why they were so scrawny.
I say keep it simple like Maria B's stimulus plan. Ask her about it. It is in her night stand.
Re: I didn't know being photogenic was so important as a policy figure.
Whatever happened to, "Washington is a Hollywood for ugly people"?
"Wonder why they were so scrawny.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins"
If they had eaten the rats instead of wasted them, maybe they wouldn't have been so scrawny.
"President-elect Barack Obama's transition team asked Congress on Thursday to delay the shut-off, citing the Commerce Department's running out of money for coupons that subsidize the cost of converter boxes, which allow analog TVs to receive digital signals."
Funny since that is a huge cost sink for TV stations to run the two transmitters. Why not fix the coupon program rather than delay the shutoff.
""Washington is a Hollywood for ugly people"?
j marston"
People magazine.
Merde writes:
She lost my interest in the first 30 seconds by using the classic "turn the corner" slogan...
Merde | 01.11.09 - 11:01 am | #
For the record, a couple of weeks ago I called "turn the corner" as the economic catch phrase for 2009.
I'm an optimist. I think people will still be wasting time sending spreadsheets/power points back and forth in offices throughout the coming years. I call it my "conservation of Office" theory. I have heard that even engineers are doing a lot of their "work" using office/power point nowadays. (I was employed briefly in the engineering sector before I went over to the Dark Side; it was before those products took over and apparently the average intelligence level collapsed as a result.)
bond guy | 01.11.09 - 12:12 pm | #
I understand the concept of 'Conservation of Office' - one more representation of the inevitable result of departmental 'empire building'.
And we use powerpoints in engineering proposals all the time - import graphics form CAD programs (part drawings)... actual pictures, vids, spreadsheets.... and send off to customers for review. It works well for that.
But the difference is we send them to customers NOT for perpetually circulating internal consumption (managerial masturbation)... there is a LOT of MM out there with or without powerpoint, excel, etc., it builds up like crazy in booms just like fuel on the forest floor and then the job loss blows up into mega fires in a bust. The fire hasn't 'crowned' yet but it will. Everywhere I go I hear people talk about the coming layoffs. Everyone is running like crazy from 'dieing' projects and looking to get involved with 'real work'. It is the hot topic where my wife works. It is what I see everywhere I go.
What's Been the Secret of America's Economic Success?
By James Pethokoukis
Posted October 31, 2007
What's Been the Secret of America's Economic Success? - US News and World Report
A recent paper by David and Christina Romer of the University of California-Berkeley examined U.S. tax cuts since World War II and found that "tax increases appear to have a very large, sustained, and highly significant negative impact on output ... [and] that tax cuts have very large and persistent positive output effects." Now every economist isn't for every tax cutDavid Romer himself was against the Bush tax cutsbut as a general guideline, lower taxes seem to be better for economic growth than higher taxes.
There is nothing wrong with being unattractive and right. The problems occur when you are unattractive and incorrect.
Why not fix the coupon program rather than delay the shutoff.
The current (Bush) budget deficit is already at $1.2T according to the CBO. We just ran out of money for coupons for folks who need to replace their rabbit ears.
Rabbits: the other white meat.
I think we should spend the stimulus money training everybody in the country how to do everybody else's job. When people get too fat sitting in the office, they can work it off next year constructing roads and get a nice tan to boot!
Elvis(Excellent) writes:
If they had eaten the rats instead of wasted them, maybe they wouldn't have been so scrawny.
They grew up in an industrial wasteland. Two of her sibs are already dead of brain cancer. They probably ate the rats. =)
"They grew up in an industrial wasteland. Two of her sibs are already dead of brain cancer. They probably ate the rats. =)
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins"
That is a downer.
The problems occur when you are unattractive and incorrect.
Elvis | 01.11.09 - 12:23 pm
Or when you are unattractive and I sober up.
My dog looked at me after watching that video and barked:
"I thought Obama said no pork?"
"Or when you are unattractive and I sober up.
Anonymous"
I think you have it backwards.
There are a lot of bank CEOs bailed out by TARP, who now have lots of rabbit ears
dryfly writes:
This lady is morbidly obese. I find that a distraction, truthfully. Jowls and thick fingers like this are basically a big sign that says, "I have no self control." Sad.
With 35 MIL on food stamps, heading into a depression, with hunger on the rise, a thin spokesperson might convey the wrong image.
Un-freaking-believable.
The one and ONLY question that remains is: Who is John Galt?
Elvis(Excellent) writes:
That is a downer.
No, the downer is that the idiots in my state voted to indebt themselves further with "Brownfield reclamation" projects, gave all the superfund sites to developers for a song, and peddled them as shopping malls and condo complexes.
Well, more of a downer for the people who moved into Love Canal and gloated about how they were taking part in the urban revival. I find it pretty funny. I remember playing on the slag piles as a boy, and how the chromium flakes glittered on my hands. I know where I'm headed.
The dipshits eating their statins an taking their jogs and hoping to squeeze five more years out of the Grim Reaper with clinical necromancy -- and then going back home to breathe in the complex solvent residues -- those guys should be feeling down.
"Who is John Galt?"
The real evil father of Dick Cheney?
I think it will be: "we may have better visibility as we begin to turn the corner"
Besides which would you rather have... a jovial and matriarchal spokeswoman or some dark brooding old man? Think of her as our 'Economics Mom' as opposed to past 'Economics Czars' [vision of 'Ivan the Terrible' in a suit comes to mind].
"those guys should be feeling down."
But, now I do, too.
The one and ONLY question that remains is: Who is John Galt?
Richard Broadbhurst | 01.11.09 - 12:29 pm | #
John Galt? A fictional construct as relevant as Mickey Mouse or Rambo.
"Besides which would you rather have... a jovial and matriarchal spokeswoman or some dark brooding old man?"
I'd rather have Heather Graham.
A few economic ancedotes here in Charlotte. "NoDa" is sort of our mini "GasLamp" area (San Diego) or "Hawthorne Ave" (Portland) kinda place. Apparently, discretionary spending is hitting the area, and it may be un-gentrifying.
404
- CharlotteObserver.com
I noticed some comments on another local forum, from someone a few years ago (an arty type, that makes a living walking dogs) who used to post about his fears of being "priced out" of affordable rentals near uptown. Last night he was commenting on all the deals cropping up, and admitting that things have not turned out that badly.
John Galt? A fictional construct as relevant as Mickey Mouse or Rambo.
dryfly | 01.11.09 - 12:33 pm | #
But Mickey and Rambo have entertainment value!
"not everything that we talked about during the campaign are we going to be able to do"
And some things he talked about eliminating he's scaling UP. More tax cuts for business and the wealthy ?
"Change you need to wipe off your shoes"
I'd rather have Heather Graham.
Elvis | 01.11.09 - 12:33 pm | #
I think they are looking to stimulate the 'economy'. Did you have something else in mind?
Elvis(Excellent) writes:
"those guys should be feeling down."
But, now I do, too.
Don't buy any more condos that have a piece of impressive looking industrial equipment out front to encapsulate the dynamic heritage of the site and region.
She is very stimulating.
New Administration; new president; new advisors; same old BS.
"Don't buy any more condos that have a piece of impressive looking industrial equipment out front to encapsulate the dynamic heritage of the site and region.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins"
What about cabins in the LA swamp that come with their own 3 headed, neighborhood alligators?
take a name ass wipe writes:
...after receiving a huge ransom washed onshore with $153,000 in cash...
When ransom money is no longer being demanded in USD, that's when we'll know the era of the dollar has passed.
Elvis(Excellent) writes:
What about cabins in the LA swamp that come with their own 3 headed, neighborhood alligators?
Maybe you could do a combo deal. There's lots of descaling treatment here. =)
Just means their dads were bad shots. Hunting anyone?
Elvis | 01.11.09 - 12:14 pm | #
Not a great solution for urban types, not a lot of big game in Lincoln Park (aside from the zoo)
Interesting section in The Economist - of course "past performance is not an indicator of future returns."
Premium content | Economist.com
On O's stimulus: economics is not a "hard" (i.e. exact) science, every option will be open to debate and conjecture. Looks to me the worry of the moment is really whether the stimulus package (in some reasonable form and limited size) is applied in time to prevent a transition from deep recession to Depression.
There will probably be multiple doses of stimuli needed before this economic episode is behind us.
Hoopajoops - you been dipping into Supafly's stash again?
The Obama Stimulus Plan:
"Burning your bridges before they're hatched (i.e., counting your chickens) - Cousin Boneless Chicken in Cow and Chicken
Cow and Chicke - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Feckless Ness, I'm high on TRUTH!
Feck,
Are you really Yves?
"Not a great solution for urban types, not a lot of big game in Lincoln Park (aside from the zoo)"
How about all of the Labs wearing bandanas tied around their necks?
Perhaps so. But I am sure Ayn Rand is laughing out loud in her grave at the absurdities coming forth now which she prophesized over half a century ago.
Who is John Galt...he is the man who stopped the engines of the world, fed up with the looters.
Mike in Long Island writes:
Throw in some guns and ammo to fend off the brigands and you'd have your plate full without worrying about where the Dow closed...
Such conditions weren't widespread in the last Depression. Why would you expect them to prevail in the (putative) next one? And in previous depressions, plenty of people still concerned themselves with the movements of the stock markets.
Somehow you believe that will be different this [next] time?
I'll offer a prediction: Dow watching will not got out of style in the next 50 years.
When the depression hits, embarrassingly deconditioned people who looked like they walked off the Pixar draft table of WALL*E won't be so numerous. It will be hard to keep the weight on your hulked-out face, legs and ham-hock arms when you ain't got no job. For the same reason, the concept of joining Lifetime fitness/Bally's et al. to "lose weight," will seem a quaint notion.
Full disclosure : I'm short fat farms.
Not caring about the Dow level | 01.11.09 - 11:47 am | #
So true. You didn't see any fat people in those pictures of the concentration camps.
This goes well with Heather Graham..
YouTube - Roast Chicken
Are you really Yves?
Anonymous | 01.11.09 - 12:47 pm | #
Who wants to know?
Fireside chats during the debtcession will be better with marshmellows and s'mores.
Fat is the new black.
Dr. Egon Spengler: I'm worried, Ray. All my readings point to something big on the horizon.
Winston Zeddemore: What do you mean, big?
Dr. Egon Spengler: Well, let's say this Twinkie represents the normal amount of psychokinetic energy in the New York area. Based on this morning's reading, it would be a Twinkie thirty-five feet long, weighing approximately six hundred pounds.
Arrgh! Don't stop without the punchline...
"That's a big twinkie."
OT but the other day we had a conversation going about Citi, has anyone found any further information about what may be happening there?
"That's a big twinkie."
mal | 01.11.09 - 12:56 pm | #
Sort of like a 21 yo gay circut boy with a glandular problem
Funny since that is a huge cost sink for TV stations to run the two transmitters. Why not fix the coupon program rather than delay the shutoff.
Brontide | 01.11.09 - 12:21 pm | #
The masses need their Soma. Without it, they might wake up and start the revolution.
I think someone needs to ask President-elect O just how big this twinkie is.
elvis,
have you seen heather lately....
yves is on fire with bullshit promises thread...
I'm not sure whether those offended by Romer's physical appearance or everyday manner of speaking are easily distracted, overly attentive to dress and other ephemera, or indulging in cattiness for some other reason but the woman is a first rate researcher with credentials on depression economics that rank her with Bernanke and Krugman and the interview makes it clear she is actively involved in analyzing a large set of variables with complex interactions in support of a developing policy.
Those paying attention to what she was actually saying probably noticed she covered a lot of ground but spent some time exploring the nature of jobs created from several perspectives, expressing significant interest in not simply moving part-timers to full-time as a temporary measure but searching for programs or even nascent industries that could make this sustainable within the context of a rejuvenated productivity base; e.g., she did not appear to be talking about service or retail jobs. If that proves a substantive focus of the policy then it will not simply be an injection of money, it will be tied into funding for other projects and programs.
IAC only a fool would discuss developing policy in detail and in the current highly charged sociopolitical environment it would be madness as well; Cristina Romer is congenial, by reputation able to work effectively with others while demanding strong analysis and it seems doubtful she is either fool or mad.
I'll wait to see the plan, and do have concerns regarding rumors of concessions possibly made to trickle-down mythology as a means of gaining Republican support, but have few qualms about the caliber of those Obama has selected to actually help him craft it.
Hoopajoops, that was the fishizzle. It's bizarre how many people took your comedy routine literally. The line between comedy and reality is quickly disintegrating, hence the Jon Stewart Show becomes news for an increasing number of people.
"Increased jobs in construction and manufacturing..."
?
What exactly are we going to be manufacturing more of? Big Macs and Whoppers?
"Hush up or I'll give you something to cry about" - Dad Obama
What exactly are we going to be manufacturing more of? Big Macs and Whoppers?
Sounds like you need a road trip with the FLY.
Such conditions weren't widespread in the last Depression. Why would you expect them to prevail in the (putative) next one? And in previous depressions, plenty of people still concerned themselves with the movements of the stock markets.
Somehow you believe that will be different this [next] time?
I'll offer a prediction: Dow watching will not got out of style in the next 50 years.
Corey
You are right there weren't. What is different today is the smaller percentage of the population that is able to provide food for their families without relying on someone else to produce it. I'm not saying Mad Max but if you think for second that there aren't people who would not even think twice about taking things from you and your family by force if necessary to feed their family I think you're delusional.
Will there be widespread disorder - probably not but don't rule it out - see Greece and the rioting in France a few years ago.
All I'm saying is that people will focus more on the day to day than long term. By the time we are in the full depths of a depression - IF we get there - people aren't going to be thinking long term about retirement and the means to achieve it - at least not the vast majority of the populance. I'd be interested in seeing what trading volumes were during the last Depression and overlaying them with volumes today...
Hmm something to do Monday morning...
Who wants to know?
A friend
I know I'm starting to sound like a broken record here, but everything she said in this piece contradicts her own research, especially her take on tax cuts.
It's strange to have academics producing sales pieces. She sounds like she is on the verge of giggling through most of it.
I could not watch this for more than 3 minutes. The "4th-grade teacher" analogy by Black Star Ranch is very apt. She comes across as very condescending, talking down to us fools.
She thoroughly avoided the main question - why the target is 4 Million jobs, and not 1 Million or 10 Million. You listen to her and she sounds as if the government can create any number of jobs, and that the administration somehow feels that 4 Million is exactly the number that is needed.
Gosh, and back in Nov-Dec I was hoping for a "Blood, Toil, Tears and Sweat" message and approach. How naive of me.
"We just ran out of money for coupons for folks who need to replace their rabbit ears"
I've used rabbit ears for three years now.
I just took another look at that creature.(I needed 2 strong drinks first) I am telling you boys, it is comrade Brezhnev wearing a cheap wig.
Mike, remember the news coverage of full scale rioting in Asia during 1997? Dunno if it will happen here... but a lot of things we thought could not happen, have!
Imagine evryone in the country discovering they've been "Madoff'd" in a currency crash. Yeah, I thin those are untested waters.
No, Anon. The circles I fly in are far less lofty.
I think someone needs to ask President-elect O just how big this twinkie is.
mal | 01.11.09 - 1:00 pm | #
And what's inside. I just HATE surprises.
I know I'm starting to sound like a broken record here, but everything she said in this piece contradicts her own research, especially her take on tax cuts.
It's strange to have academics producing sales pieces. She sounds like she is on the verge of giggling through most of it.
Bond Girl
I agree, but like Elvis said, "You're either on the bus or you are off the bus."
My dog looked at me after watching that video and barked:
"I thought Obama said no pork?"
Prognostiscooter | 01.11.09 - 12:26 pm | #
Mine said "roll that wonderful bean footage." And, I swear it's a Golden Retriever. It pains me to think I may have to eat her (my dog, not Romer) in the near future just to survive.
I think someone needs to ask President-elect O just how big this twinkie is.
mal | 01.11.09 - 1:00 pm | #
Well, let's say this Twinkie represents the normal amount of economic stimulus energy in the DC area. Based on this morning's reading, it would be a Twinkie thirty-five feet long, weighing approximately six hundred pounds.
That's a big Twinkie.
Re: he thoroughly avoided the main question - why the target is 4 Million jobs, and not 1 Million or 10 Million.
I still have never heard whet the jobs are and how those will be created; did I miss something?
Dryfly:
Outerbeltway at yahoo dot com.
This is worth your time.
Re: No, Anon.
Oh well, thanks anyway.
It's strange to have academics producing sales pieces.
This part of Obama's "transparency" theme, to make the behind-the-scenes policymakers public. Since Goldman Sachs won't publicly comment, we're stuck with Romer, Bernstein, and Summers. Still better than having Perino explain this stuff.
why the target is 4 Million jobs, and not 1 Million or 10 Million.
Precisely. The reason is because it opens up the argument to logic and mathematics, which run contrary to the plan.
Morocco, you can eat your dog, but you can not eat that woman. And that's a fact.
This is a personal observation. All the people in my life I have met with what looks like the same personality as Christina Romer have been ineffective but still pretend to be right in their own mind. From what I have seen of this administration so far, we will probably encounter the hands over ears "I can't hear you" syndrome as the academics fall over each other.
Leadership in America is dead
What exactly are we going to be manufacturing more of? Big Macs and Whoppers?
Weather Helm | 01.11.09 - 1:01 pm | #
There is a lot of mfg out there - just 'cause you don't see it at WalMart doesn't mean it isn't there. For example - next time at a Fast food place - look at all the 'equipment' back behind the counter - many 1000s of dollars of capital virtually all US built. Then consider the equipment in distribution & logistics - also almost all US built. You see this in MANY sectors... transportation, health care, etc.
Most folks have no idea how much mfg there is or what it does for the economy - even though employment in mfg is flat overall & declining as a percentage of the population & economy... increases in mfg activity spill over into large increases in service jobs (finance, insurance, logistics & 'mgmt support'). Most mfg sectors have very high job multipliers and are some of the most 'responsive' to direct stimulus... a smaller amount of money goes farther (than say just a check to spend at WalMart).
Sounds like you need a road trip with the FLY.
Mozo Maz | 01.11.09 - 1:03 pm | #
Beat me to it... see post above.
dryfly writes: No one is even gonna care what the Dow is if we go into a real depression
True, but any precipitous falls in Dow/SP will accelerate the slide into depression as they will lead to further drop in consumer confidence and with that to drop in consumer spend
Dryfly:
Outerbeltway at yahoo dot com.
This is worth your time.
OuterBeltway | 01.11.09 - 1:12 pm | #
Tease me - why worth my time?
True, but any precipitous falls in Dow/SP will accelerate the slide into depression as they will lead to further drop in consumer confidence and with that to drop in consumer spend
MrM | 01.11.09 - 1:18 pm | #
Everything I've ever heard or read says declines in stock markets have minor impact on GDP compared to (1) job loss and (2) residental real estate losses. Job loss effects from what I have read in the past (sorry no links - long gone) are order of magnitude more powerful than market losses.
In a television interview on Sunday, Mr. Obama sought to dampen public expectations that his $775 billion stimulus plan, with its emphasis on infrastructure, alternative energy, health care and education, would jolt the economy out of recession.
Obama Says Economic Recovery Will Take Time - WSJ.com
rich writes,
The idea that the federal government can create new jobs in specific segments ("where women are a disproportionately large fraction") is straight out of academic circle lunacy.
Don't be so quick to judge. I see a boom in housewives, (who can't find any other jobs) female prostitutes, and charwomen.
Got peak civilization?
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) told CNN's "Late Edition" that she wants to take immediate steps to repeal President George W. Bush's tax cuts for those earning more than $250,000 a year. "The sooner they are repealed, the less negative impact they'll have on our deficit," Ms. Pelosi said. She said the Democrats instead want to steer personal tax cuts to middle-class Americans.
There have been suggestions that Mr. Obama prefers to wait until the cuts expire at the end of next year. "The Obama administration believes that increasing taxes on any Americans at this point may not be the right medicine," Sen. Dick Durbin (D., Ill.), an Obama ally, told CBS's "Face the Nation."
Many Republicans, meanwhile, remain skeptical of a big boost in deficit spending, and oppose anything that smacks of a tax hike. "At a time of great economic uncertainty, the last thing we want to do is raise taxes on anyone," House Minority Leader John Boehner (R., Ohio) told CBS. "We're going to have a hard enough time coming to agreement on what this package will look like."
The Dow is already irrelevant - it's a lagging indicator.
Chrysler Sees 24 New Models, Isnt Readying for Sale
Chrysler Sees 24 New Models, Isn’t Readying for Sale (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
they can't sell their inventory, so they will try to build new models...
The very definition of stupid management...
here are my 24 models
http://www.clubvibes.com/images/listings/events/25236.jpg
Hoopajoops, LTD writes: I THOUGHT I REQUESTED THAT THIS DOCUMENT BE ON CREAM COLORED PARCHMENT... THIS IS NOT PARCHMENT, PARCHMENT IS TEXTURED --- NO GAS FOR YOU!!!!!
It is a tad more complicated. For example, last week the Ukrainian court ruled that the agreement on transit prices, signed in 2006, was invalid - because the person who signed it for the Ukrainian side "was not authorized to sign it" (that was the vice-chairman of the Ukrainian Naphtogaz). So getting the details right is important.
"His candidacy was in fact a trailing indicator of a (supposedly) booming economy without limit. All that phony wealth just made people ("educated" people, at that) believe that the dawning of the Age of Aquarius was at hand,"
Mal,
You could be right, but what I heard was people were thoroughly disgusted with the dishonest, ineffective Bush admin. How many times did I hear people say, My god, he can actually speak English.
His vote against the Iraq war was crucial, something Clinton could never overcome, and his guilelessness contrasted mightily with the evil that is Cheney, Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz.
There was a moral revulsion towards the republicans, and McCain did not help his party.
Speed writes:
...The Dow is already irrelevant - it's a lagging indicator...
And I always thought is's irrelevant because it has decoupled from reality.
I'll wait to see the plan, and do have concerns regarding rumors of concessions possibly made to trickle-down mythology as a means of gaining Republican support, but have few qualms about the caliber of those Obama has selected to actually help him craft it.
RW | 01.11.09 - 1:00 pm | #
That's what I'm worried about...concessions to the voodoo crowd, as if that school of thought hasn't been discredited enough already.
Apparently he wants to get 70 or 80 votes in the Senate. Why he thinks he needs to work with the extremists of the GOP is beyond me. Bipartisanship is highly overrated.
Dryfly:
Sorry, I can't provide much detail publicly. In my first post, I mentioned that I'm working on collaborative economic development systems.
You may have noticed that the top-down economic development ideas currently on the table don't address the core issues.
You, among a few others on this blog, have noted this, and have some ideas and experience that would be relevant should someone develop bottom-up methods.
My team is.
So why should you be interested?
a. Chance to put your ideas into wider circulation
b. Chance to connect with other entities that need what you do
There are several other reasons, but that's all I'll say publicly at this time.
If that's not enough, I'm happy to take "no" for an answer.
OB
3. What's with the camera shot of Romer's hands at ~2:50?
anonymous | 01.11.09 - 11:10 am | #
DeLong's blog had a group picture of the econ team a few weeks ago, and a closeup showed this lady had three hands (must have been photo-shopped or something). So the joke was she's a three-handed economist (on the other hand...).
My thought was, they just wanted to show that she only has two hands.
Gee Ms. Romer born with a silver bucket in her mouth.
but the woman is a first rate researcher with credentials on depression economics that rank her with Bernanke and Krugman
That may be perfectly true, but they could have at least put a bag over her head, and mittens over those chunky penis fingers.
She reminds me of my older sister, in looks and demeanor. My obese older sister once confessed to my wife that she threw a cake away one day, only to retrieve it from the trash outside on the curb the next day to satisfy a sweet carb craving.
The Dow or market seems to discount things that have already occurred. It lost it's reputation as a leading indicator a long time ago.
Ministry of Truth writes:
This is a personal observation. All the people in my life I have met with what looks like the same personality as Christina Romer have been ineffective but still pretend to be right in their own mind.
Even though she talks like a flipping moron, she writes extremely well. She's probably been around undergraduates too long and lost all sense of maturity. I've just had enough of solutions being advanced by hacks and liars, and I can't see how she does not fit into that category after this. Obama goes to great efforts to surround himself with academics and technocrats, and all of these people are too drunk off optimism to promote anything in line with their own observations.
This sounds more like the TARP everyday. It will just reward a different group.
but you can not eat that woman. And that's a fact.
Broker | 01.11.09 - 1:15 pm | #
Not in one sitting, at least. She'd last a year, maybe more, so long as we have electricity to store her in our garage freezer.
dryfly writes:
Everything I've ever heard or read says declines in stock markets have minor impact on GDP compared to (1) job loss and (2) residential real estate losses.
Stock market drops -> MSM discusses it non-stop -> consumer confidence drops -> consumers spend less -> economy declines
The correlation between stock market returns and reported consumer confidence can be measured and it is pretty strong.
Back in 1930s most of the population did not care about the stock market because a) there was no telly b) they were not personally exposed. Both of these factors have changed.
Not caring about the Dow level writes:
This lady is morbidly obese. I find that a distraction, truthfully. Jowls and thick fingers like this are basically a big sign that says, "I have no self control."
This was known as a "banker's physique" during the last depression. It was much sought after as a sign of prosperity.
Got peak civilization?
I just took another look at that creature.(I needed 2 strong drinks first) I am telling you boys, it is comrade Brezhnev wearing a cheap wig.
Broker | 01.11.09 - 1:05 pm | #
Shades of Janet Reno, or Madeleine Albright. Every Dem Administration must have their man woman. Why can't they have babes like Ann Coulter.
Ann Coulter's Adam's Apple - Funny Ann Coulter Picture
badger boy writes:
I just don't understand why so few others on this board don't see this gift for what it is. We will look back at GLD and SLV as buy-and-hold of our lifetime.
Because possibly I'm not the only one who went broke in 2001 and my biggest investments these days are in a tank of gas to get to work and a good meal to survive the day?
"No money" to invest arrived in this household years ago.
Got peak civilization?
My thought was, they just wanted to show that she only has two hands.
Three Four-Handed Economist Christina D. Romer - J. Bradford DeLong's Grasping Reality with All Eight Tentacles
An inside joke as part of a policy sell piece?
From one of DeLong's commentators:
She actually has a fourth hand, behind her back (some call it the "invisible hand.")
LOL!
She Looks like Augustus Gloops mother, from Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory.
She sure made the transition to political mouthpiece in no time flat.
What utter blather.
Kindly knock off the insults about Romer's physical appearance. Thank you.
Well bring it on, Christina, I still have the $ 600 from the last stimulus collecting interest in my interest bearing checking account, and I'll just add more to it, until you give me some reason for 'hope', like that my house isn't going to be worth less than I owe on it, or it's worth spending that money on house repair/fix-up. But aren't Nobel prize winning economists worthy of consulting on how to make the thing work? And aren't you talking about "voodoo economics" when you talk that way about tax cuts?? Just asking, me being a non-non-economist?
the woman is a first rate researcher with credentials on depression economics that rank her with Bernanke and Krugman
Talk about faint praise...that's the nastiest thing anyone has said about her all day.
Got peak civilization?
badger boy wrote:
"Personally, I am thankful that Obama is being very transparent with his economic plan (Yes We Can -- Print) so that I can invest accordingly.
I just don't understand why so few others on this board don't see this gift for what it is. We will look back at GLD and SLV as buy-and-hold of our lifetime".
badger boy | 01.11.09 - 10:57 am | #
badger boy, you are right on. There is only one way out of this with the printing presses going full speed. Borrow all the long term money when you can while you can and move it offshore. The debts will be obliterated.
Black Star Ranch wrote:
"....why do I feel like a 10-year old child in a classroom listening to his 4th-grade teacher"?
Black Star Ranch | 01.11.09 - 11:01 am | #
Because that is what the messiah thinks you are along with the rest of his party apparat!
Often, wearing a ring on the right hand denotes being in a same sex "marriage".
Seeing as how she's in a different sex marriage, who knows....
Not sure the symbolism of wearing a napkin ring on one's finger is though.
There are parts of the stimulus that are good, parts political and parts just out right terrible.
I think the idea of smart grid is exactly the kind of thing that government should be doing- build and they will come sort of like the interstate system.
However, my problem with the stimulus plan is that it doesn't acknowledge what the problem is - the unsustainability of previous economic model. Until that is done all this is putting "lip stick on a pig".
Gosh, and back in Nov-Dec I was hoping for a "Blood, Toil, Tears and Sweat" message and approach. How naive of me.
MrM | 01.11.09 - 1:05 pm | #
yeah Obama promised to tell the truth- I don't think it counts if you whisper it with your hand over your mouth. Until we recognize the truth -we borrow too much to spend- we will not fix the problem. First step in any recovery process- admit you have a problem. No such luck so far. Not feeling so great about my campaign contributions at this point.
Before anyone else wastes a valuable portion of their life, that they can never get back - instead of reading Atlas Shrugged, just read this: 404 Not Found It's not quite as shallow as Rand, but it still captures the basic story.
Whoops, try this: 404 Not Found
Third try; I'm still figuring out Ken's wonderful softward.
http://www.mopie.com/blog/2006/01/atlas-shrugged-by-ayn-rand.html
fried "what I heard was people were thoroughly disgusted with the dishonest, ineffective Bush admin"
Listen... The American people don't give a rat's ass about honest unless it yields prosperity. And if honesty yields a depression in short order you'll see how quickly one of the chosen one's overlooked stunts from the past becomes impeachment material.
Got it! By the way, no snark here, Ken's CR companion is really fantastic. Now onward to a living thread.
The ONLY way to fix the stock market is to cancel all option grants as compensation, then shut down the derivative market and force companies to use real accounting that is linked to dividends. As for TARP and all the illegal and un-constitutional TARP bullshit and bogus Treasury accounting fraud, that all has to come clean. The chances of any of this happening are about zero, so the markets will remain dead, one way or another!
People caught in the past seldom understand what is happening in the moment
OuterBeltway
Are you looking for ideas in general? I run a small engineering group whose aim is to improve efficiency and effectiveness of engineering R&D, improve the manufacturing process, and reduce time-to-market. Customers that use us usually see significant gains in their productivity, and we're trying to get that message out to those in the decision making positions. Engineers are easy sells, management and govt. policy makers are tougher. If you'd like to talk, let me know.
100th Idiot
I'll offer a prediction: Dow watching will not got out of style in the next 50 years.
Corey | Homepage | 01.11.09 - 12:50 pm | #
Of course, the Dow is for suckers, same as 401k's.
How many Dow stocks now in the fold were there 70 years ago?
The weak and losers get replaced with winners making a joke of Dow charts and chartists.
Stocks only have value in expected earning and dividends, not growth. When a company stops earning and
paying dividends, it drops in price. Growth is taken care of in the "stops" reference.
The shot of Romer's hands was to show her Harvard class ring. No joke. It was a reminder to the elite of where she comes from and whose interests she represents.
The length at 9:11 could have been so easily fixed and was not. When you prepare a presentation a group of people will watch and make suggestions. Absolutely impossible no one mentioned it and didn't discuss it. To see the Obama admin start playing games like this is infuriating.
Whoops, I meant MIT class ring.
In my processional experience, to the person , those that wear class rings have been duds that have primary focus on (corporate)political vectoring..
so, who will pay for this and at what cost? will the printing press run or will we issue debt? she smiles alot. I don't think she will be smiling for long.
"This is a personal observation. All the people in my life I have met with what looks like the same personality as Christina Romer have been ineffective but still pretend to be right in their own mind."
Exactly my observation, from 15 years in a university town. She studied job demographics to gratify women's groups? That was doubtless rooted in pure concern for effectiveness.
Ugh! We are definitely in for it.....
Is this chick the ugliest possible choice or what?
"Demographic groups get jobs"...sounds like illegal aliens getting jobs to me.