Given Bush's setbacks in foreign policy, lack of domestic achievements, sleeping at the wheel in spite of abundant high level warnings pre-911 regarding an impending major terrorist attack on the U.S, failure to find Bin Laden and finally presiding over the worst economic disaster facing the U.S since the Great Depression, "the lost decade" seems a pretty tame description of the last 10 years, in my opinion.
On the positive side, it was a gorgeous winter day here in Northern California, highs in the 60s and nothing but sunshine.
Muir Woods was a blast with the kids. And it was comforting to reflect that amidst the unstable hillsides and frequent earthquakes, the tallest living things have somehow managed to grow and survive, with the hardiest living for 1000-2000 years.
Redwoods as a metaphor for Western Civilization?
(On the negative side, plenty of fallen giants -- definitely a land of creative destruction.)
Don't read too much into it. He worked hard on one thing his whole life - pretending to be a Texan. Should we be surprised that he was just LBJ on a bigger and stupider scale?
The spooky part is I saw the Lost Decade header and thought... Zandi's calling for a lost decade (into the future)... then realized he meant the decade PAST. Oh shit - how lost will the NEXT decade be because the 'past' was nothing compared to what's coming.
Look, Bush is no genius...but let's get real. The current crisis is just an extension of what caused the internet boom and bust, generated during Clinton's admin.
Housing was the perfect substitute bubble to keep the greatest credit bubble in history going.
The reason housing was perfect? Because of programs like the mere existance of Fannie and Freddie that made mortgage money artifically low due to the implied backing of the Fed Govt. Which meant the need for the magic of securitization to convince private companies they could compete. Combined with the tax benefit of the elimination of the capital gains on the sale of homes. These are things that were put into place long before Bush.
Blaming Bush may be theraputic, but it is a political distraction from the true causes of the current mess. If anyone is familiar with Barney Frank's attitude and current solutions, then you know it would be too much to expect that this bubble wouldn't have formed and popped had a Democrat been at the helm.
Blaming Bush may be theraputic, but it is a political distraction from the true causes of the current mess. Average Joe | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 1:37 am | #
Many, many ways to answer and disagree with this. But it's late and I'll keep it to one single instance that exemplifies the Bush administration:
I blame it on Flip This House, Flip That House, Property Ladder, Flipping Out, and a dozen others. At the end of each half-hour or hour show, the flipper was at least 30K richer, sometimes 120k richer, and it only took 6 weeks.
For 2 years, all day long on Saturday's, flippers were getting rich - and we were just watching, until there was nothing left, no other way to get rich, except flipping houses.
So I blame it on TLC and humbly would like to pitch a new idea called, Foreclose This House, and follow the families as they divorce, move in with their relatives, and watch as the home soon becomes a crack house.
Average Joe writes:
Look, Bush is no genius...but let's get real. The current crisis is just an extension of what caused the internet boom and bust, generated during Clinton's admin.
--
respectfully the dot com bubble and this financial crisis have little in common
the current mess required 4 things to come together
free money courtesy greenspan
the total abdication of regulation of the markets by the bush administration (because the markets know best...invisible hand and all that shit)
exotic securitization on wall street, the asymptotic rise of derivatives esp swaps plus the creation of the structured investment vehicle along with tranches and packaging of a gazillion loans into an untraceable mixed up mess
free for all feeding frenzie by loan originators cause they didnt have to keep the loans in their portfolios and so they invited no doc, liar loans regardless of individuals credit worthiness
the dot com bubble was a mania and was fueled in part by y2k expenditures and the concommittant belief that all that glitters is tech
"The Bush administration today recommended the most significant regulatory overhaul in the housing finance industry since the savings and loan crisis a decade ago....
The plan is an acknowledgment by the administration that oversight of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- which together have issued more than $1.5 trillion in outstanding debt -- is broken.....
A report by outside investigators in July concluded that Freddie Mac manipulated its accounting to mislead investors, and critics have said Fannie Mae does not adequately hedge against rising interest rates.
Significant details must still be worked out before Congress can approve a bill. Among the groups denouncing the proposal today were the National Association of Home Builders and Congressional Democrats who fear that tighter regulation of the companies could sharply reduce their commitment to financing low-income and affordable housing.
''These two entities -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- are not facing any kind of financial crisis,'' said Representative Barney Frank of Massachusetts, the ranking Democrat on the Financial Services Committee. ''The more people exaggerate these problems, the more pressure there is on these companies, the less we will see in terms of affordable housing.''
Representative Melvin L. Watt, Democrat of North Carolina, agreed.
''I don't see much other than a shell game going on here, moving something from one agency to another and in the process weakening the bargaining power of poorer families and their ability to get affordable housing,'' Mr. Watt said.
No kidding!! Most westerners do not appreciate the importance of 'face' in eastern cultures. Obama would be well served to read about the history of that region. Plus the chinese have a massive chip on the shoulder.. The idea of threatening China without giving them a 'face saving' option is too stupid to contemplate.
Having said that, giving China an option that includes opening up their domestic market and stop playing mercantilism is doable.. if you sell it as a way of uplifting rural chinese from poverty. Now that is something the chinese rulers will like..
//China does not take kindly to blatant threats and values "face" more than Westerners will ever understand. I've been married to a Chinese woman for over a decade and still barely understand how important this is.
The CCP will never publicly cave to overt blackmail, I hope Obama is smarter than this. They will turn inwards just as they have many times in the past, even if they go down in flames.
Pissed Off In California | 01.12.09 - 1:37 am | #//
Bush did not steer the country toward a more sound long-term fiscal position. After winning reelection, he made a failed push both to tweak Social Security to stabilize its long-term finances and create private accounts for Americans to invest in the stock market.
Anyone notice this non-sequitur in the article? The rest of the article is equally stupid and/or mendacious.
OT from the previous thread (took me 2 hours to read it)
MP i agree with your list and have argued here that the gov has to leap frog the locked up banks
you argue for taking the chartered ones over, kool, and i put forth a bank of the USA like mmcknly has stated
MS
i agree that the demise of glass steagal sounded the chords of doom
but truth be known, glass steagal was being dis-embowled by administrative fiat and blind sightedness for years before the final death knell and clintons signature
Most of you see the bush presidency as a disaster.. I do not..
The reason is very simple.. The course taken by the west in the last 30 years was bound to end in tears. Bush merely sped up the process towards its logical end. By being so incompetent, he allowed the faults of the system to become obvious much sooner.
In that respect he is a lot like Hitler, whose actions (repugnant as they may have been) forced the end of european colonialism.
the only problem with the article you cite is that
the article was written andd the legislation was proposed in 2003 when the republicans controlled the house and the senate
and barney frank was just a minority member of the house banking committee , not the chair
and finally, the part of the article you did not post says the major change was to take way from the president the right to appoint several members of the board of directors???
how was this an improvement
ps i agree that barney franks assessment of the dangers was way way low balling the problem
All civilized manners die when it comes to suvival of the fittest.
It doesnt matter whether chineese needs facing or Japaneese can print to oblivion or euro can become reserve currency.
This is about teaching everyong what faith, belief and honest about. It doesnt take (like) bullshit and monekying around the syntax.
People's faith in fiat currency is destroyed. What is missing still now is that the people and not yet completely realized it. But they are started to realizing this.
All developed countries will undergo terrible depression. All developing countries will undergo terrible hyper inflation. Anyone who says hyperinflation is prefered than depression will be shown what is going on developing countries and vice versa.
Also understand this, fiat currency has its benefits which cant be disputed or left out. First and foremost is efficient in using and circulating it.
So fiat currency will live but the theives (FED & CB) cant steal any value out of it through inflation.
Protectnism will be taken to the highest level anyone could imagine.
AJ - Puhleeze
So much jibberish in such a small space. One point, distinguishing dot com and lot bomb bubbles, Dot com was paper wealth, real estate bubble was paper wealth with debt which was leveraged. Neither were good, one was substantially worse.
My thoughts on the threat of credit card companies pulling credit lines
-Let them! If they are stupid and intellectually lazy- they just might. But once they do that the processes they will set in motion will destroy them and the banks behind them.
Nothing gets people motivated to lynch banksters like not having enough to eat or being unable to afford basic stuff. The reality is that credit has been used to paper up declining real wages and unreported inflation in the last 26 years... If you remove that backstop, there will be a lot of blood on the streets- literally.
The point of the article is that the delusion of the problem was widespread. People STILL aren't honest about what's going on. Yes Bush could have stopped it...but I didn't see Bush fighting against a wave of those who "knew better" and were demanding change. For Bush to have addressed the issues that created the bubble, he would have been a lone voice.
Look at Frank's statement about lower priced money being necessary for low-income housing. THAT IS A BLATANT LIE ON IT'S FACE and shows a profound ignorance, willful or otherwise, about the dynamics of housing.
If money is expensive the housing prices drop! Historically housing prices where line with incomes and the price of the house was lower or higher depending on the price of financing. It was offsetting and irrelevant to the buyer in a normal market. You cant make housing more affordable by making money more affordable! It's common sense!
The housing bubble was a cause of a systemic and corrupt system with a long legacy and many hands. Bush is to be blamed for allowing it, but not causing it.
"In the 108th Congress, the House Financial Services Committee reached an agreement to markup legislation originally scheduled for October 8, 2003. However, on October 7, 2003, the Treasury Department announced its opposition to this agreement, killing progress on GSE reform. (Congressional Research Service, "Improving the Effectiveness of GSE Oversight: Legislative Proposals in the 108th Congress."
cheap money...greenspans 1% interest rate was the rocket fuel
but lets face it, dems are famous for wanting too much regulation and repubs are famous for not wanting much if any
lack of oversight and regulation was a major contributing factor
hank paulsons genius exotic securitization friends on wall street was the icing on the cake
do i fault clinton for signing p gramms bill ending 1/2 of glass steagal...yes, and one of clintons boyz, rubin joined with gramm as poart architect of the mess
the deregulation mantra goes back to reagan, and even a little before...big mistake
The course taken by the west in the last 30 years was bound to end in tears. Bush merely sped up the process towards its logical end
What you are saying is that Bush represents the apotheosis of Reganism. But that doesn't mean that Bush was not a disaster, or that he wasn't responsible for the failure of his ideology. He wanted to be at the top and he can damn well take responsibility.
"But most of the whining takes the form of claims that the Bush administrations failure was simply a matter of bad luck either the bad luck of President Bush himself, who just happened to have disasters happen on his watch, or the bad luck of the G.O.P., which just happened to send the wrong man to the White House.
The fault, however, lies not in Republicans stars but in themselves. Forty years ago the G.O.P. decided, in effect, to make itself the party of racial backlash. And everything that has happened in recent years, from the choice of Mr. Bush as the partys champion, to the Bush administrations pervasive incompetence, to the partys shrinking base, is a consequence of that decision..."
We should know all about with saving face, we've been dealing with Italians for a long time and they are all about saving face, even if it is of a different nature than thevasian variety.
I wish this thread was up earlier, the discourse between myself and MS is much more appropo here.
Needless to say, attempts to keep housing cheap was not the cause of anything, just a symptom of loose monetary policy. I don't see how so many otherwise smart people miss this obvious point.
Bush is the logical conclusion of the rot that started with Reagan, Thatcher etc .. I am not saying that socialism or militant labor unions are good either. Merely that we have a reached a stage where humans cannot play the "prisoners dilemma" like they always have..
//What you are saying is that Bush represents the apotheosis of Reganism. But that doesn't mean that Bush was not a disaster, or that he wasn't responsible for the failure of his ideology. He wanted to be at the top and he can damn well take responsibility.//
"Not only did the Bush Administration ignore the warning signs about risky mortgages, they encouraged the very practices that are at the heart of the current economic crisis and stood in the way of efforts that would have prevented the crisis."
How about posting links to the articles of the Democrats in power who were screaming about the dangerous lending practices, the risky loans, the inflating housing bubble, the pending bust, etc?
Like I said...Bush did ignore the warning signs...along with everyone else in power. The only ones saying it were blogs!!! Trust me...I listened.
All of Washington was in denial or worse. Bush was in power, true, and I too am furious at him for failing ot act...But I'm not so dilusional to think that it would have been different with anyone else.
If you believe that republicans are much better than democrats or vice versa- you are believing in a religion. The reality is that they are rather similar, though the republicans have more hypocrites and the democrats are more corrupt.
There are the large numbers in the 'we' who rode the boom (and lobbied for no regs) have made vast fortunes and will life the rest of their lives in gilded luxury chatting to each other about how clever they were.
"If you believe that republicans are much better than democrats or vice versa- you are believing in a religion."
Exactly my point. I started this discussion by saying those looking to find the cause of this in Bush are going to be sorely dissapointed, because the alternative to Bush, whoever that would have been, would have suffered the same fate.
I am not defending Bush. I am saying that the cause of this Bubble was widespread...over multiple administrations, caused by ignorance, incompetence, corruption,...
I am saying not to be so myopic on Bush. He is but one cog in this wheel.
The mistakes are still being made and look to be compounded by the solutions.
Those blaming Bush soley for this are blinded by politics.
a much better than average Goodwin, but the average latin american leftist of the past fifty years would contend that the gringo variety was just as bad if not worse. I wouldn't necessarily agree, being a fan of the monroe doctrine for the most part.
As for muni bonds, alexei - i get the tax reasoning, but why the gluttony for default risk? corporate bonds are still so beat on as to pay twice even the worst munis. worried about commodity inflation? just buy some gsg as an appetizer to the main fixed-income entree, problem solved.
Of course, Zandi is the one who is now advocating a budget deficit of $1 Trillion or more in the next year. Fine Mark, but how do we end up paying for it? Krugman / Keynesian spend now, pay later didn't work the last time, and it isn't going to work this time....
"I might add that anyone thinking this began with Reagan are also sorely mistaken"
personally, i think the premise behind the FHA was misguided in the first place, but i'm an unreconstructed isolationist goldbug paleoconservative who thinks american culture started to go downhill when gershwin moved west
"because the alternative to Bush, whoever that would have been, would have suffered the same fate. "
agree on the main point, but that, my friend is speculative horseshit of the worst kind. W's doubling of the national debt, creation of tens of trillions in new entitlements and creation of out lowest diplomatic standing in the entire history of the nation is a very, very special achievement. only lbj was this texas-sized in his stupidity, and only that trifecta of disastrous presidents stretching from jfk to nixon can compare in real, lasting damage. W trumps even those three stooges, collectively and individually. why devalue his greatness?
September 30, 1999 "Fannie Mae, the nation's biggest underwriter of home mortgages, has been under increasing pressure from the Clinton Administration to expand mortgage loans among low and moderate income people and felt pressure from stock holders to maintain its phenomenal growth in profits."
It began much earlier.. well, it is complicated... but essentially two things that happened in the last 100 years changed us in ways we still cannot accept-
The effects of widespread industrialization and an economy primarily based on consumerism by average people.
The widespread acceptance and use of fiat currency.
We still have not appreciated and assimilated the effects of that change. We function as if we were in the pre-1900 world, whereas our society cannot work with that world-view. We kept on patching the old way rather than change. The reagan revolution was the last try.. It ended under bush.. and obama.
//I might add that anyone thinking this began with Reagan are also sorely mistaken.
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) | 01.12.09 - 2:43 am | #//
Claude Hopkins wrote leads directly to the sale of a product or service.
Bill Gates wrote shows company management connecting with normal people.
Jerry Seinfeld wrote pays 10 million and doesnt even require me to be funny!
"Eight years after arriving in Washington vowing to spread the dream of homeownership, Mr. Bush is leaving office, as he himself said recently, faced with the prospect of a global meltdown with roots in the housing sector he so ardently championed.
There are plenty of culprits, like lenders who peddled easy credit, consumers who took on mortgages they could not afford and Wall Street chieftains who loaded up on mortgage-backed securities without regard to the risk.
But the story of how we got here is partly one of Mr. Bushs own making, according to a review of his tenure that included interviews with dozens of current and former administration officials.
From his earliest days in office, Mr. Bush paired his belief that Americans do best when they own their own home with his conviction that markets do best when let alone.
He pushed hard to expand homeownership, especially among minorities, an initiative that dovetailed with his ambition to expand the Republican tent and with the business interests of some of his biggest donors. But his housing policies and hands-off approach to regulation encouraged lax lending standards."
The problem is that the nature of our system has changed such that 'old ideas' are no longer workable. Even worse, you cannot deconstruct an emergent system.
As for muni bonds, alexei - i get the tax reasoning, but why the gluttony for default risk? corporate bonds are still so beat on as to pay twice even the worst munis.
Default risk as opposed to corporate?
I own paper outright in my name, not in funds.
I'm out of MI, OH, FL statewide, exposed to NJ, AZ and CA district by district and NY/NJPortAuthority. My homework is a helluva lot easier on this paper than most corporate debt.
Unless the company is sitting on a mountain of cash along with that debt corporate is random decimation, so yields don't makep for risk.
"Under Fannie Mae's pilot program, consumers who qualify can secure a mortgage with an interest rate one percentage point above that of a conventional, 30-year fixed rate mortgage of less than $240,000 -- a rate that currently averages about 7.76 per cent. If the borrower makes his or her monthly payments on time for two years, the one percentage point premium is dropped.
Fannie Mae, the nation's biggest underwriter of home mortgages, does not lend money directly to consumers. Instead, it purchases loans that banks make on what is called the secondary market. By expanding the type of loans that it will buy, Fannie Mae is hoping to spur banks to make more loans to people with less-than-stellar credit ratings."
note
fannie andd freddy did not ORIGINATE loans
the no doc, liar , ninja loan world is a creation of the last 8 years
specifically greenspan argued in favor of it before congress and the bush administration in early 202 i believe (will check date)
interesting to note that the subprime stuff blowing up aint 10 or 20 years old
the crisis stemmed from loans originated in the last 8 years
In 2004, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan continued to encourage higher-risk mortgages: "American consumers might benefit if lenders provided greater mortgage product alternatives to the traditional fixed-rate mortgage... The traditional fixed-rate mortgage may be an expensive method of financing a home." (2/23/04) Later, when "[a]sked why he didn't speak out, if he knew these practices were going on or even suspected that there was something illegal or shady, Greenspan admits, 'While I was aware a lot of these practices were going on, I had no notion of how significant they had become until very late. I didn't really get it until very late in 2005 and 2006.'" (CBS News, 9/13/07)
Senators Dodd and Sarbanes warned Chairman Greenspan about the dangers of promoting the use of nontraditional mortgages: "Adjustable rate mortgages, for a low income constituency, [are] a nightmare." (Senator Dodd, Senate Banking Committee hearing, 2/24/04) "[The Federal Reserve] is pushing adjustable rate mortgages...and throwing this risk back on the consumer...in effect, downing the 30 year fixed rate mortgage and pushing up the adjustable rate mortgage." (Senator Sarbanes, Senate Banking Committee hearing, 2/24/04)
The two party system masquerade hopefully will be seen for the grand illusion it is when the final history of the USA is written.
BUT...
Bush is the worst President in the history of the USA.
Think of WW II, I can only name the leaders and the generals on all sides. I can tell you who was seen as the good guys and who were the villains. Bush will be a villain.
States warned about impending mortgage crisis
Bush administration, financial industry thwarted efforts to curb greed
BusinessWeek.com
snip
"Some states, including North Carolina and Georgia, passed laws aimed at deterring rash loans only to have federal authorities undercut them. In Iowa and other states, mortgage mills arranged to be acquired by nationally regulated banks and in the process fended off more-assertive state supervision. In Ohio the story took a different twist: State lawmakers acting at the behest of lenders squelched an attempt by the Cleveland City Council to slow the subprime frenzy.
A number of factors contributed to the mortgage disaster and credit crunch. Interest rate cuts and unprecedented foreign capital infusions fueled thoughtless lending on Main Street and arrogant gambling on Wall Street. The trading of esoteric derivatives amplified risks it was supposed to mute.
One cause, though, has been largely overlooked: the stifling of prescient state enforcers and legislators who tried to contain the greed and foolishness. They were thwarted in many cases by Washington officials hostile to regulation and a financial industry adept at exploiting this ideology.
The Bush Administration and many banks clung to what is known as "preemption." It is a legal doctrine that can be invoked in court and at the rulemaking table to assert that, when federal and state authority over business conflict, the feds prevail even if it means little or no regulation."
i judge that bill clinton did several things that set the country on the wrong course and he shares some blame
but make no mistake this monster was grown, nourished and set loose on the country during the last eight years
'
funny isnt it, the party that always complained about how welfare queens and others fail to take personal responsibility now tries to blame everyone else for failures on their watch
It's easy to blame greenspan, and bush too, and I do. BUt more likely the real blame is on all of us collectively. Clinton was no great regulator, and the repeal of glass-steagall occurred on his watch.
Maybe there is no way of avoiding a huge increase in the collective appetite for risk that occurs around 80 years following the previous debt collapse. Certainly prudence and savings will grow for an extended period, but what about in the 2080's, after those that lived through this debacle have died? We can pass whatever new and better reforms we want to, but a later generation is perfectly free to undo and/or ignore them.
One difference this time is peak oil and the 6.5 billion homo sapiens. The substitutes will not provide us with anything like the standard of living we have grown accustomed to.
I was amused by an earlier post: "Don't read too much into it. He worked hard on one thing his whole life - pretending to be a Texan. Should we be surprised that he was just LBJ on a bigger and stupider scale?" I earlier thought johnson was our worst president, certainly when ignoring the civil rights legislation, but we do indeed have a competitor.
Dot com was paper wealth, real estate bubble was paper wealth with debt which was leveraged. Neither were good, one was substantially worse.
Yes, idiots buying pets.com shares didn't interfere with my very existence on this planet. But everyone needs space to live and work, which requires land, which the flippers and easy-money with their zero value-add rent-chasing was making more & more expensive for everyone.
Driving home values from $400K to $800K in my zipcode was not wealth creation! Far, far from it.
Yes, idiots buying pets.com shares didn't interfere with my very existence on this planet. But everyone needs space to live and work, which requires land, which the flippers and easy-money with their zero value-add rent-chasing was making more & more expensive for everyone.
This has been my biggest complaint concerning the housing bubble as well. How many families --including mine-- have been sidelined for many years because we refused to participate in this madness?
Renting has been my savior, and is certainly far, far from the cruelest fate one can suffer. However, quite frankly, assuming the buy-vs-rent equation had been balanced, I would probably have bought a house by now. The non-financial benefits of ownership are real and non-trivial: getting to decide which improvements/rennovations get made and when, not having to worry about arbitrary rent increases, evictions, avoiding asshole or crooked LLs, etc.
You want to talk about "blameless victims"? How about those who didn't get anything of value out of the bubble --but must now pay for it with our present and future tax dollars, off-the-books inflation, plus a wrecked economy that now threatens our livelihoods? Put me down as "blameless victim", Exhibit A.
I earlier thought johnson was our worst president, certainly when ignoring the civil rights legislation, but we do indeed have a competitor. jkiss | 01.12.09 - 3:19 am | #
I think you have to wait for some future generation to make that call; we're still too close for sound dispassionate judgement. But given the extensive lists of failures exposed during the last few years, we've got a great candidate. You know, there were people who questioned whether Nolan Ryan should make the Hall of Fame on the first ballot, even with seven no-hitters to his credit. Well, I'm confident that Bush the Younger is a shoo-in for the Hall of Infamy, if not unanimously chosen as worst ever. And as anon said about heroes and villians: villian. It hardly matters if Bush is personally to blame for the financial blow-up: it happened on his eight year watch and he's the C-in-C. I'm not a military man, so I don't know if there's a special exemption for this remarkable lapse. Perhaps someone who knows the responsibility of command can say?
sdtfs, I'm not a military man, and I too await the input of someone who is or was. But it is my understanding that the executive is the C-in-C of the armed forces, period. Constitutionally, he's not the head of the country, or even of the government-- our soon to be outpastured VP's notions to the contrary.
There's enough blame (going way back) to share, but I plead guilty to seeing GWB and Greenspan as just the men for the job: execute the decline of the republic.
Oh, that and the abstention of citizen vigilance, and lack of personal responsibility.
But it is my understanding that the executive is the C-in-C of the armed forces, period. Constitutionally, he's not the head of the country, or even of the government-- our soon to be outpastured VP's notions to the contrary
The first part is correct. Constitutionally, it's Congress' army with the President in ultimate command authority -- a subtle separation of powers between overall regulatory responsibility and day-to-day command.
Playing the blame game is stupid, however. The important thing is to not listen to stupid people.
Conveniently, Murdoch has collected them in 3 or 4 places now, like the WSJ Op Ed pages, Weekly Standard, FOX, etc etc.
However, the President is in fact head of government AND head of state (the latter in constitutional monarchies being held by the reigning royal).
"September 30, 1999
"Fannie Mae, the nation's biggest underwriter of home mortgages, has been under increasing pressure from the Clinton Administration to expand mortgage loans among low and moderate income people and felt pressure from stock holders to maintain its phenomenal growth in profits."
OK, so were house prices inflated under Clinton? No they weren't. They were well within historical norms. So there was no evidence during his administration thst his housing polices might have been faulty.
The fact is that house prices got out of control under Bush, and Bush not only refused to acknowledge the problem, but actively pursued policies to make the problem worse.
Trying to blame Clinton for the housing bubble is like trying to blame Eisenhower for the Vietnam War. Sure some of the roots lie with those administrations, but that in no way excuses the behavior of their successors who turned a latent problem into a disaster.
Electoral fraud
- Useless Wars (~ 85,000 dead people)
- Massive corruption (dozen of billions)
- Patriot Act & Homeland dictatorship
- Massive Deficit for our children (added $5T to the public debt)
- Severe recession ( 5 millions jobs lost at least)
Off by an order of magnitude maybe on 1.
Pretty much spot-on with 2 given the genereral lax oversight of the coalition authority in Iraq.
Dictatorship? Get a hold of yourself! I've never understood the brouhaha about PATRIOT; it may be the toolset for future dictatorship but I'm not worried about that now.
The added debt isn't troubling in the least; what was untaxed in 2002 can be re-taxed sooner or later.
Tough blaming the President about the recession. His team thought they found the magic beans to get us out of the dotcom implosion tech recession, but they were playing with fire. Assuming your #1 goal in 2002 is to get reelected in 2004, I really can't blame the President's team for pulling the housing bubble lever. I'd have done the same thing, LOL.
So there was no evidence during his administration thst his housing polices might have been faulty.
The latter half of the Clinton Admin certainly laid the general trajectory in for his follow-on, whether it was Gore or Bush. 'course, if it was Gore then the team in power would have largely stayed the same I guess. No modification of the upper marginal tax rates, no Iraq war, so the national debt would be about a trillion less than it is now.
One dynamic that was getting going under Clinton was the massive trade imbalance with China, which they recycled into GSE bond purchases. This provided a lot of liquidity to fan the flames of the housing bubble.
Troy, regarding executive power as "head of government" and "head of state", I regret that you are practically correct when referring to despotic democracies as opposed to monarchies.
I certainly don't think our system was designed with this function in mind for the executive. Many citizens prefer to propound a system closer to the founders' intentions in which the powers are separate, independent and limited.
Since at least Lincoln (or Whiskey Rebellion if you want to push it), this has been an idealization that the constitution failed to protect adequately against a series of ambitious executives defining their powers through brute force.
While it is fun to blame Bush for everything, I really see him as more of a puppet, at least in terms of the domestic housing issue (The colossal blunders in Iraq being another matter). It was obvious to me during the period when the $700 billion bailout was being pushed through Congress that the leaders of both parties were completely clueless and were simply deferring to the financial guys, Paulson and especially Bernanke. I see the same cluelessness now with Obama. They are going to Keynes us to death, a bit like feeding a 7-course meal to a food poisoning victim.
I agree with Average Joe, very little difference in terms of parties.
sdtfs, could you help with that reference? I don't know what voters expect really, even the informed ones.
The perennial tussle between the politicians and the bureaucrats in the U.S. system is interesting to watch. But when facing the public, both tend to avoid responsibility either through legal sophistry or well crafted sound bites.
Ultimately, I follow the advice of a poster here some time ago who urged us to expect little, fear little, and keep our distance to the degree possible.
Troy, totally agree about the blame game script disseminated in the Murdoch organs.
Paul Craig Roberts:
"However, any resemblance to independent reporting disappeared from the American media when the Democratic regime of President Clinton allowed Murdoch and a small handful of moguls to concentrate the American media in a few corporate hands. That was the end of American reporting.
Journalists disappeared from media management and were replaced by corporate advertising executives with an eye not to offend any source of advertising revenue, and certainly not to offend the government, which controls the broadcast licenses that comprise the value of the mega-companies. Today reporters write the stories that their masters want to hear, or they are out. The function of editors is to make certain that no uncomfortable information reaches the public."
The public is slowly catching on, and the print media is slowly dying. The New York Times, Chicago Tribune, and Los Angeles Times are all on the ropes to one extent or the other."
Thankfully this observation comes to us from a former editor of the WSJ and Reagan era Treas official, done seen the light.
Here's the new total - 44 states in the tank, some projecting out to 2011.
That's right, states' revenue economists are saying we are in the sh!tpile for years to come. Why the geniuses working at fed level can't see that is A Great Question for our Age.
thank you oh great Zandi... sent an email out3 days ago to some family and a few friends, saying essentially the same thing back, in the podunck town where I grew up in Indiana and their response was 'crickets' or some off putting remark. maybe Jas in onto someth
if it was Gore then the team in power would have largely stayed the same I guess.
That's right - you guess. What Gore might or might not have done is irrelevant because Gore wasn't the president. He isn't responsible for what happened during Bush's term in office, nor is Clinton. Bush is.
It's ridiculous to imply that Bush was in any way bound to follow Clinton's policies in housing or anything else. Indeed he campaigned on making a break with Clinton. It's amazing how Bush's apologists are so unwilling to assign him any responsibility for his administration's blunders, just as Bush is unwilling to take any blame himself. Monkey see, monkey do.
Contrast this with a man who knew something about taking responsibility - JFK. He accepted the blame for the Bay of Pigs fiasco even though the whole operation had been planned under Eisenhower.
When will the stupidity of blaming "lack of regulation" for problems created by government sink into the bloggers here? The government creates booms and then gives the rating agencies an oligopoly to intentionally understate all risk and "lack of regulation" is somehow to blame?
There is too much regulation. Laws, regulations, and taxes make this country non-competitive on almost all non-leveraged businesses. Go to Honk Kong or Singapore if you don't believe me.
Government "education" is the largest problem. The blogger here actually thinks he or she has a clue in blaming a lack of regulation for our troubles. And this individual is probably relatively well "educated."
Unfortunately, only a complete collapse of the U.S. is likely to make the socialists in this country realize their errors and even then I'm sure they'll blame the 3% of the free-market that is left for a "market failure."
A pox on all of your houses, you socialist destroyers of all things good. The Founding Fathers would want you booted off the continent and for good reason. Every idea you have is wrong.
It is amazing how some people have excused everything that Bush has or hasn't done.
Back in 2002 he pushed very hard for a war with Iraq based on Iraqs possesion of Weapons of Mass Destrcution. As we all know now there weren't any. Bush somehow knew they were there though. His appologists claimed everyone else believed the same thing and that he wasn't to blame.
Banks in the U.S. were playing with weapons of financial mass destruction and detonated them all over America and G.W. didn't have a clue what was going on. His apologists claim that Clinton is to blame for this mess.
G.W. saw boogey men where none existed and couldn't see the real boogey men in our midst. He didn't get much right.
Here's another look at the sh!tpile, from HK's Tan King indices, via Kaboomberger.
Disaggregating, the biggest losses are in China enterprises, Mainland 25 and H Financials.
Ouch.
HANG SENG INDEX\t13,971.00\t-406.44\t-2.83%\t03:10
HANG SENG COMPOSITE INDX\t1,901.00\t-62.39\t-3.18%\t03:10
S&P/HKEx LargeCap Index\t17,389.11\t-490.47\t-2.74%\t05:31
S&P/HKEx GEM Index\t363.62\t-10.51\t-2.81%\t05:31
HS FREEFLOAT COMP INDEX\t1,997.58\t-66.13\t-3.20%\t03:10
HANG SENG HK FREEFLT IX\t1,502.01\t-25.41\t-1.66%\t03:10
HANG SENG CHINA ENT INDX\t7,311.23\t-412.58\t-5.34%\t03:10
HANG SENG CHINA AFF.CRP\t3,122.65\t-104.69\t-3.24%\t03:10
HS MAINLAND FREEFLOAT IX\t4,059.70\t-186.24\t-4.39%\t03:10
HANG SENG 50 INDEX\t1,958.77\t-60.31\t-2.99%\t03:10
HANG SENG HK 25 INDEX\t1,445.34\t-21.41\t-1.46%\t03:10
HANG SENG MAINLAND25 IX\t4,769.40\t-214.95\t-4.31%\t03:10
HANG SENG H-FINANCIALS\t9,277.37\t-501.51\t-5.13%\t03:10
Anak(Unrated) writes: sdtfs, could you help with that reference?
Golden Bough. Referring to the universal human practice of electing a symbolic king who can be made responsible for general calamity. (See also "tending to the altars of soil and grain" in Chinese practice.)
The Bank of England will be able to print extra money without having legally to declare it under new plans which will heighten fears that the Government will secretly pump extra cash into the economy.
So maybe the USD isn't in such a bad shape after all..rally on!
Extend that thinking to its logical conclusion - no federal taxes whatsoever and perpetual budget deficits of 15% of GDP. Angry Saver | 01.12.09 - 7:09 am | #
Oh but you've forgotten, the Laffer curve and all that. ::eyeroll::
Let me get this straight. McCain runs for president on a platform of keeping W. economic policies unchanged.
Zandi is key economic advisor to McCain Campaign.
Zandi sees te last 8 years as a lost decade.
Things could have been worse, McCain could have been elected.
Anak(Unrated) writes: And Byz thanks. If you ever come to China, let me know. I'll be your humble translator and we'll go to the park to see the Wusetu in Beijing.
Thank you, this humble gentleman is grateful for your generous offer of hospitality.
Zandi sees te last 8 years as a lost decade. Dirk | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 7:36 am | #
The key to understanding Zandi's statement: The last 8 years have been a helluva lot worse than a lost decade. They've pretty much dug a huge hole for the US, and the word "lost" is about as positive a spin as can be mustered. I mean really: More than doubling the deficit, and all we get is "lost"?! The Clusterf*ck Decade would be a superior title.
"Unfortunately, only a complete collapse of the U.S. is likely to make the socialists in this country realize their errors and even then I'm sure they'll blame the 3% of the free-market that is left for a "market failure."
Ha ha ha. Failing in marriage makes you automatically gay? (like Mr. Orlov said about American "socialism"). You haven't even seen real socialism at all (like in Cuba or in former Eastern Europe or more lite and more functioning version in the Nordics or Canada).
This weird experiment called US economy is corpocapitalism aka fasism-lite combined with born-again-jesus-freaks combined with "goverment is the problem except when giving out no-bid contracts to my business buddies"-republicans combined with militarism running amok combined with about thousand other really weird shit. Plus Dubya.
funny isnt it, the party that always complained about how welfare queens and others fail to take personal responsibility now tries to blame everyone else for failures on their watch
hmmm, if bush had been working for the mafia and got their operations into such a clusterfk i doubt the godfathers would be nodding sympathetically that it was all the dems fault
since he hasn't been eviscerated/cement shoed perhaps it proves the mafia don't run USG
Q: Can you summarize your outlook for the housing market and for the economy in general in 2006?
A: I think the economic outlook is good. The expansion will remain intact. Top-line GDP [gross domestic product] growth will be about 3 1/2 percent, roughly what we'll get ... in 2005. And job growth will be comparable with a couple-million-plus jobs created in 2006, which is on par with 2005. Broadly speaking, the economy should perform well.
Margin acct, 2:1 leverage max, and relatively rare, most people dont leverage their equity accounts or certianly dont use max leverage. Dirk | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 8:15 am | #
The mafia is our bought and paid for US Goverment....Bush did'nt have the brains to do this clusterf33k alone..He did give China the first stimula by way of Walmart...He knew what he was doing...He did let Paulson pay off and coverup something on Wallstree we may never know what....
Move these bastards out of DC..Corrupt beltway leeches...Spread this power thru out the US...State to State with maybe a lottery on who goes where..What do we expect, same old same old leeches now for the past 20 years.
Damn I've got to go to work...My day is ruined just thinking of these clusterf##ks in backstalls calling the shots.
Oh look, Obama is going to fail to sponsor truth and reconciliation inquiries into the Bush administration's crimes. Yay. Change that amounts to no change at all.
One of the less understood concepts of governance is that it is not a good idea to execute/prosecute the outgoing/former executives.
Think about it. If we get mired in pursuit of righting the past we won't be able to move on. Who amongst you would want to serve should your neck (literally) be on the line? Think France and England as two examples.
But if you want to go after them, then have at it.
"Not even a good old-fashioned sex scandal could get our outrage going again. Indeed, a juicy one erupted last year in the Interior Department, where the inspector general found that officials had used cocaine and marijuana, and had sexual relationships with oil and gas company representatives. Two officials tasked with marketing oil on behalf of American taxpayers got so blotto at a daytime golf event sponsored by Shell that they became too incapacitated to drive and had to be put up by the oil company."
Oh look, Obama is going to fail to sponsor truth and reconciliation inquiries into the Bush administration's crimes. Yay. Change that amounts to no change at all.
This is to help you forget that Obama is keeping Gitmo open.
"President-elect Barack Obama warned Sunday -- on the seventh anniversary of the opening of the war-on-terrorism prison camp at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba -- that he likely would not make good on his campaign pledge to close it during his first 100 days in office."
Volker the Viking(Excellent) writes: One of the less understood concepts of governance is that it is not a good idea to execute/prosecute the outgoing/former executives.
Think about it. If we get mired in pursuit of righting the past we won't be able to move on. Who amongst you would want to serve should your neck (literally) be on the line?
I'll serve with my neck on the line. Why would I serve the Republic in any other fashion? Why don't I serve it now, and instead its service is populated with time-markers, thieves and knaves? if your policies are so wise -- and they have been pursued as if they were -- how did we come to this impasse?
It is politically unprofitable but necessary for continued operation of the state to rectify its operation when it has been compromised. Also, since so many key personalities in the Opposition were emired in the current morass of immorality and failure that calls itself the administration of this great nation, it's a good chance to toss all your enemies alive into a meat grinder to popular applause.
Blame-shifting and purges will prove quite handy in the trying time to come. Those who were eager to sacrifice the freedom of others and the future of the Republic to support their policies should in turn be sacrificed. As per the line of behavior they espoused. They had no problem with warrantless wiretapping, torture, nonjudicial detention, tarping billions to their well-connected friends, why would they begrudge the Republic a few show trials?
Blame-shifting and purges will prove quite handy in the trying time to come. Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 8:37 am | #
This is exactly why I thought Ford's pardon of Nixon was correct.
Dear Congress, FBI and Justice Department: Please don't spend your time and my tax dollars on this. There are many more pressing things that need your attention.
The only good thing Bush did was destroy the Republican party... Maybe now we can clean up the mess and move on....
Crewman | 01.12.09 - 8:30 am | #
Bush's admin has been a disaster but I am more afraid of where we are going than where we have been. Our system is corrupt and I have seen no evidence that we are trying to "change". I am betting before 4 years we there will be financial or political recriminations of negativity posted on the internet.
I think we should have hung Nixon and his cronies and let the bids eat their eyes, and we wouldn't be where we're at today. Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 8:47 am | #
Sigh. See, I just don't eve see that happening. You might be able to get a high level staffer or two (like Libby). You're never going to actually get W or Cheney on trial. It's just not going to happen.
Since I believe it's "just not going to happen" (even though I wish it would), I really don't want any time or money wasted or trying to make it happen.
The reson for going after Bush and Co. in criminal trials is to restore the good name of the U.S. to the world, and to make sure that no future admin uses the Bush tenure as precident. The world had a greater need to look forward, not to the past, in 1946 than it does today, and there was little chance that Himmler and Georing were going to return to power, yet I think most people would agree it was a good idea to hold those Trials at Nurenberg
Volker the Viking(Excellent) writes: I suggest you consult some deeper thinkers such as historians and have a thoughtful conversation on the matter.
I fell I have a pretty well-considered stance.
Even civil war and a generation of division over the matter, with millions dead, is a worthwhile investment, especially since we're already BK. Might as well undertake substantive reorganization.
I don't think it will take that but I would sign on even if it did. One of the critical things a king has to do is legitimate his reign. Following up on a historically corrupt administration, you really want to destroy swiftly and publicly the malfeasors of the previous kingship.
The kingdom has been brought to ruin. Unless we dispose of the bandits responsible, it'll merely serve as encouragement to the next band of ambitious brigands.
The reason people don't want to see this happen is because both parties are the same and beholden to the same interests, not in pursuit of the interests of good rule.
Dirk(Excellent) writes: The reason for going after Bush and Co. in criminal trials is to restore the good name of the U.S. to the world, and to make sure that no future admin uses the Bush tenure as precident. The world had a greater need to look forward, not to the past, in 1946 than it does today, and there was little chance that Himmler and Georing were going to return to power, yet I think most people would agree it was a good idea to hold those Trials at Nurenberg
^^^
What he said. He's much nicer about it than me.
The reson for going after Bush and Co. in criminal trials is to restore the good name of the U.S. to the world, and to make sure that no future admin uses the Bush tenure as precident. Dirk | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 8:51 am | #
If I thought there was any chance of seeing W or Cheney in the dock, facing a jury, I'd be all for it.
But IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN. Get over it, and move on with your life.
I think that you answer from within your context, which I will call "the milieu of failing states" in tribute to ole Han Fei Tze. Within the current context of the modern S political milieu, you are 100% correct. Therein is the problem.
Not speaking for Dirk -- but I, at least, am answering from the broader context of governance in the abstract, over a multigenerational timeframe.
If you don't get from a place where punishing the responsible parties is unimaginable to a place where punishing those parties is routine and expected, you will get somewhere else instead, and you will like that place very little.
"Bush makes a handy whipping boy. But, if you want to know what's wrong with this country and society, look in the mirror."
Middyfeek | 01.12.09 - 8:28 am | #--
I did. And I told the guy to give back the Tarp money. He replied that he didn't get any of the money...(I guess I'll have to look elsewhere for the answer...)
The Repukelicans worked so hard to destroy Clinton, many, many fruitless charges .. then Impeachment over lying about a blow job.
Bush has left this country in ruins, lies, torture, WAR, nationalizing banks, unbelieveable debt and the best excuse they can come up with for the problems is Barney Frank... give me a break... I think a war crimes trial would serve our country well..
I noticed him trying to re-write history on FOX Noise. "Waterboarding is not torture" Sad.. our country used to be better than that!
dryfly wrote: Oh shit - how lost will the NEXT decade be because the 'past' was nothing compared to what's coming.
I'm quite certain that you and I voted for the W twice in a row. Instead of feeling guilty, you instead lay the blame on Obama. Why? Do you think it would have been better with McCain winning the presidency?
In a span of 8 years, our country turned from being vibrant into something that is completely cynical and corrupt. The Republican party sucked big time! And the sooner you and I realize that, the better our conscience would be...
If you don't get from a place where punishing the responsible parties is unimaginable to a place where punishing those parties is routine and expected, you will get somewhere else instead, and you will like that place very little. Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 9:00 am | #
Doesn't matter what I like or dislike. Reality is where we are, not where we'd like to be. Maybe in a few generations, we could be closer to putting an ex-president in the dock. Right now, we're just not.
(That's not intended to sound harsh, future reader -- Merlin is almost bemused in the scene, even though he's just told Arthur of the destruction of the Round Table and been ignored)
Well, I watched the other day that "PBS - Great Crash of 1929 (video)" (link is on Jesse's blog) and due to the eery (fundamental) parallels between then and now are more than ever convinced that america will go into a real depression. (regardless of the current spin, remember the hilariously upbeat predictions made a year ago which could now be verified, but no one likes to face these ludicrous statements of yesteryear).
So, when in 2020 or so, america will crawl out of it's depresion what will you say then?
The "Lost two Decades", The "Lost quarter Century" ?
Good morning everyone. Thought I'd start the day off with a linky.
Here is a Bloomberg story on Bill Gross talking about TIPS as being incredibly cheap.
From the story, "Barclays Wealth, which manages about $215 billion, estimates TIPS are pricing in 11 percent deflation, according to Kevin Lecocq, the firms London-based chief investment officer.
While we may get small deflation in 2009, he told Bloomberg Television last week. But to get an 11 percent drop is unreasonable.
11 percent deflation - which side of that trade do you want...
FDIC - Monitoring the Use of Funding from Federal Financial Stability and Guaranty Programs (public pressure works some time but how long will the banks take to comply?)
State nonmember institutions should implement a process to monitor their use of capital injections, liquidity support and/or financing guarantees obtained through recent financial stability programs established by Department of the Treasury, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Federal Reserve. In particular, the monitoring processes should help to determine how participation in these federal programs has assisted institutions in supporting prudent lending and/or supporting efforts to work with existing borrowers to avoid unnecessary foreclosures. The FDIC encourages institutions to include a summary of this information in shareholder and public reports, annual reports and financial statements, as applicable. FDIC: FIL-1-2009: Financial Stability and Guaranty Programs
You are absolutely wrong, and you know that !!
Clinton was impeached because of perjury ! Perjury!!
He should have never been asked the question in the first place.
Then if it is perjury you want..
Let's ask the questions.."did you authorize torture Mr. Bush?"
"did you ship people out of the country to be tortured?"
"Did you know there were no WMD'S before you slaughtered thousands of people?"
"Did you authorize wire tapping of US ciitizens?"
Even if you want to trace the 'roots' of the current situation back to other administrations, the absolute orgy of looting and bailouts of cronys that happened through 2008 bears the fingerprints of this administration and none other.
"the total abdication of regulation of the markets by the bush administration (because the markets know best...invisible hand and all that shit)"
Being "in the business" from 1999 to 2006, I know full well the impact DEMs had on keeping all hands off Fannie and Freddie. It was their political cash register. If we had reeled them in sooner, perhaps we could have headed the credit bubble off a bit earlier.
In the last year plus we've seen countless instances of CYA, and in the instant case this includes Mark Zandi. Your post does not include the part of the article that notes that Zandi was a McCain economic adviser. Neither you nor the reporter noted further than early on in this financial conflagration Zandi was a staunch apologist for Bush's disastrous laissez faire policies.
I'm quite certain that you and I voted for the W twice in a row. Compassionate Conservative Bus | 01.12.09 - 9:04 am | #
I didn't vote for W - I split tickets (vote some D, some GOP, some Inde's) and will vote GOP sometimes. And there are GOPers I'd actively support w/ time, money and my vote but NONE of them qualify as a 'neocon'. FTR.
My local bank puts a hold of 11 business days any check, even local, business checks, where they can not "verify" the funds.
Verification means calling the bank and making them confirm that the account exists and has enough funds to cover the check. In lieu of that they will accept a faxed affidavit of funds by the business that wrote the check.
... the administration's ideological opposition to regulation and oversight that allowed the housing and credit bubbles to form.
Actually it was the regulators and overseers that promoted the credit bubble.
Nobody was less interested in stopping these bubbles than the people in DC.
As long as we think of lawmakers and regulations as magic cures we will only continue to obscure the underlying causes of the problems we currently have.
It seems that for the most part we are content to do exactly that.
So the problems will be repeated...
I guess if the goal is to justify the expansion of an agenda at any cost then the facts must be fitted to achieve that goal.
I used to truly relish partisan threads. But, in the last couple of years, I actually started to get tired of them. But, here's my 2 cents:
George W. Bush is a great reflection of how the majority of this country thinks and behaves under normal circumstances. Religious without theology. Ideological without principles. Unreflective. Intensely mediocre in intellect and let's be honest, America is not Lake Wobegon. His re-election tells us so many things about this country.
While we may get small deflation in 2009, he told Bloomberg Television last week. But to get an 11 percent drop is unreasonable.
Anecdote: Saturday morning I replaced an aging automobile with something far newer, though used: small, Germanic rocket, a 2006 with only 5500 mi. on it. The current Black Book valuation was $42K, purchase price was $24K.
What's laughable is the idea that the sort of "cataclysmic change" that Obama allegedly represents, could be accomplished as easily and bloodlessly as voting in a "change" candidate who faced very little resistance from the current social and financial establishment.
In about 2 years this will begin to dawn on the general population, if not before.
Government issues credit cards to half the population. Government moves the other half in to monitor their spending. Charges all expenses to the first half's cards. Switches roles every four years.
No doubt Bush and company did it all alone. Not The All American Suckers (ASS) who loved their faux status of success, goated on by many so called experts. No self examination, herd mentality, ignore basic math. We now enter a third administration of no discipline but a baby sitter government. Consumer economy can not survive in the long run and here we are. The big problem was universal greed on all levels. My corn Flakes aren't crunchy today, Dam GWB! Next week I will Blame OB for everything!
rps(Unrated) writes: Bush legacy years designated as the era of BANKS GONE WILD
Watch these firms show all their assets as they bare their balance sheets for the cameras! Too structured for television! These capital structures are multi-tranched and ready for investment!
Public to politicians: "Don't take my punch bowl away."
There certainly was some of that.
dryfly
I was screaming about the housing bubble back in 2005 before I ever came here.
And for the most part I felt completely alone, except for maybe the housingbubble blog.
My concerns certainly weren't being voiced by the regulators and lawmakers in Washington, in fact it seemed to be quite the opposite: The housing bubble was evidence of how successful their policies were.
IMO it is dishonest and dangerous to suggest that having more of the types of individuals that populated the congress and the Federal Reserve over the past several years are somehow the solution to the problem.
The facts simply do not support it, even if the ideology behind the government's current agenda does.
Don't know if this was posted above or elsewhere but looks like Ford changes their mind, thinking about asking for their pony now... somehow I'm not surprised.
"The reality is that they are rather similar, though the republicans have more hypocrites and the democrats are more corrupt." - Lucifer
......I NEVER figured I might agree with you - but you are dead on here.
"...i really wonder if he [Ron Paul] could have secured the nomination had the events of the past year occurred a year earlier." - bgates
"Bush can go back to what he is good at. Drinking!"........I wouldn't wish that fate on any man.
.....both parties' politicians are guilty of dereliction of duty, there is no saving ourselves from the results of our ignorance, and as is currently being undertaken in parts of Washington DC, it's time to save yourself.
OK, having now watched teh last ten minutes or so of Bush live..... I don't think we can prosecute him, because the diminished mental capacity defense is a lock.
Jeez, I thought he was going to foam at the mouth during the "REMEMBER WHAT IT WAS LIKE HERE AFTER 9/11" rant.
Who has the facts that banks didn't make any profit?
The business I run 100% mine..LLC..it's financial regulated make's a profit...
Now I could steal by paying myself and any employee's hugh bonus's that could take it under..Perfectly legal..
Would this make sence to anyone with any though other than greed.
If I was a pig farmer, paid myself and all the help in pigs each week, and come bonus day gave myself more pigs than I had in inventory...It's just pig math.
......... . . and the downward spiral repeats itself until the productive sectors of the economy collapse under the collective weight of taxes and other burdens imposed in the name of fairness, equality and do-goodism.
"We don't need to make a movie out of the book," [Atlas Shrugged] Mr. Kelley jokes. "We are living it right now."
I remember when American savings rate went negative and the so called expert economist claimed Americans had more real wealth then even in their homes. There was no need for personal savings. Now the home equity is gone and no money in the savings. Resulting multiplied disaster.
The punchbowl will be moved from the red room to the blue room.
Obama's advisor Rahm is planning on adding a gravy boat to ladle over the carved carcass; the USA. A lease here of highways/tollroads/bridges, a lease there of public institutions......all to foreign ownership. The Japanese car industry already owns the Southern states.
Let's not forget that Billy-playboy-Clinton opened up trade with China, promising a market in China for US-made electronics. Yeah, right. 10 years later, China is shooting satellites out of orbit, and directing lasers at US spy satellites.
Billy didn't take out Bin Laden because the US government knew what he was planning all along. The towers were strewn with thermite and explosives, which is obvious when you look closely at the videos. What will the US govt do next? Nuke a city and blame it on Iran? Unleash the plague and blame it on Iran? The US govt has been stockpiling plastic coffins all over the US. Millions of them, and large enough to hold several bodies each. Look at the evidence.
If any of you really want to see Bush in the dock,wait a year or two and pay for his two week vacation at the Hague...everyone likes free stuff no matter the price.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins generally I respect what you have to say but that comment on the Nixon Admin. shows an incredible lack of knowledge of American political history...
Obama's stimulus will be in stages and won't be sent as a check. It will arrive as credit cards. First cc with a Chinese logo. 2nd Japanese, 3rd Germany. All products purchased via CC's must be made in China, Japan and Germany.
This will prevent americans from saving the stimulus or paying existing bills. Pretty clever.
IMO it is dishonest and dangerous to suggest that having more of the types of individuals that populated the congress and the Federal Reserve over the past several years are somehow the solution to the problem. ac | 01.12.09 - 9:56 am | #
The only way we see 'real change' is if we insist on it - in the polling booth and if that doesn't deliver then take it to the street. My guess is we'll see more of both if this recession deepens and drags on. Probably not this summer but certainly by next summer UNLESS there is real hope things are improving.
Here's the troubling thing. If we aren't going to punish those that perpetuated ponzi finance in America over the past 10 years, we need to radically alter what is taught in our schools.
To prepare the next generation to take care of themselves, they will need extensive training in lying, distorting, spinning, half truths, plausible deny-ability, scams, swindles, etc.
Reading, writing & mathametics just don't cut it anymore.
Contrast this with a man who knew something about taking responsibility - JFK. He accepted the blame for the Bay of Pigs fiasco even though the whole operation had been planned under Eisenhower. \t yogurt!!!!
yes, and right after it was the night of the long knives in the CIA! betcha didn't know that Joe Kennedy pal John 'Mr Establishment' McCloy tipped off JFK about the secret training program in Florida and during the 2nd debate painted Nixon into the 'dove' corner where Nixon said problems with Cuba should be handled diplomatically by the OAS or UN... and JFK talked about an invasion...
yoghurt - do your homework... ps: nice that Jack pulled the air cover at the last minute
Duke of CT: Little could surprise me here, however true the story is.
Governing has been a sordid business.
I won't say must be this way, but still, doesn't this point out the futility of investing too much hope in any leader-- and to invest the hope instead into systems, monitored by an active citizenry, that render leadership relatively impotent?
While much attention is given to New Orleans as the tipping point for Bushs image in the United States, two earlier events spoke volumes to me of Bushs true character. Yes, the flood in New Orleans in late August 2005 was what got everyones attention regarding Bushs failure as both a leader and a compassionate person. But I remember pre-9-11, when Bush chose to snub the Vermont Republican Senator by not inviting Mr. Jeffords to the White House for a Teacher of the Year ceremony that honored a Vermont high school teacher. A small detail, but so telling (and so bush league (pardon the pun.))
The other event that showed me how out of touch our President was with world events, and his apparent lack of empathy, was the December 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake that killed an estimated 225,000 and caused widespread damage across much of southern Asia. Even given the early signs of the enormity of the catastrophe, Bushs initial pledge for assistance was for $15 million. Two days later this was bumped up to a huge (sarcasm) $35 million. This compares to Denmark who gave $74 million or Austria who gave $65 million. Only after the U.N. criticized the contributions of rich nations as "stingy" did Bush authorize $350 million on December 31, 2004 with more to follow (ultimately providing $950 million in aid). Republican spinmeisters try to paint Bush as a caring, decent fellow, but actions speak a lot louder than words.
Very good posts up-thread by Mock Turtle that explain Bush's culpability and show that there were critics along the way who were discounted, disparaged, or removed.
Several additional points on top of what has been said by many:
1) Because Bush is culpable does not mean that no one else is to blame - Clinton enabled deregulation and the CDS nightmare, Bush was elected twice, we did not impeach him, Greenspan was significant, consumers were stupid, banksters and brokers were rapacious. Bush had a primary role.
2) Deregulation and corruption are not the same thing. Bush set records in both.
3) The gigantic Bush structural deficit is a grave problem not in itself, but in relation to what it was used to accomplish: re-election by giving people something for nothing, making the rich super rich, and the disaster of the Iraq war. A structural deficit can be necessary and it can be the best thing to do, as in the case of the New Deal and WWII. The Bush deficit had no such justification.
To prepare the next generation to take care of themselves, they will need extensive training in lying, distorting, spinning, half truths, plausible deny-ability, scams, swindles, etc.
Angry Saver | 01.12.09 - 10:23 am | #
these soft skills can be taught to an extent but without the natural talent and psychological disposition of near or actual sociopathy/psychopathy you can't be truly competitive at it, even if you're an expert. it's not just a job, you have to have a passion for it.
I had to read down to average joe to find any non BDS posting on this issue.
For CR to blame the Bush admin for this problem is laughable. For others to follow suit with a string of insults/ad hominem attacks would be predictable.
There are structural problems in the US Government that were brought about by FDR and which have matastisized over the years to produce this current credit crisis. The sooner you all drop the Republican/Democrat or Conservative/Progressive vibe and start to understand the core problems, the sooner we'll be able to make the changes necessary to avoid the next 'bubble'.
Which is shaping up to be in 2011 or 2012 when the value of the Dollar drops to zero. Because of our POTUS elects desire for 'stimulus'.
The Bush administration should have raised taxes back in 2001 and should have tightened regulations so bankers couldn't make loans.
This nonsense of a free market is has been a pipe dream for too long. We have a government controlled economy and this Bush administration tried to pull us away from that.
Now we see the results when the government isn't steering the economy.
For five or six years, Bush and his administration (and their friends in the media) were touting the success of the Bush economic policies, especially those tax cuts. I therefore have no qualms about laying the blame for the current mess at their feet.
FFDIC writes: WSJ Error Page - WSJ.com SB...3567166677.html
WSJ Opinion:
'Atlas Shrugged': From Fiction to Fact in 52 Years
FFDIC | 01.12.09 - 1:37 am | #
Does the WSJ editorial board have any cred left? None with me... they've been nothing but bubble cheerleaders, deregulators in the face of graft, and simple hacks for the last 6 years...
Dave of SV writes:
...Only after the U.N. criticized the contributions of rich nations as "stingy" did Bush authorize $350 million on December 31, 2004 with more to follow (ultimately providing $950 million in aid). Republican spinmeisters try to paint Bush as a caring, decent fellow, but actions speak a lot louder than words.
Another one of Bush's faults.
He was constantly giving our money away. Stories like this, and the $50 billion he gave away for fighting AIDS in Africa(!) are more examples of how out of touch this man was.
How dare he give our money away like this when we need it here?
Just incredible lack of caring about the people that elected him.
The fact that you didn't get any TARP money hardly puts you in the clear. Everyone who can, however they can, is involved in an assault on the government's pocketbook.
THAT'S the problem. If you are not in some way guilty of this, you are in a very small minority.
Hollering Bush, Cheney, Halliburton is just childish twaddle. The problem, by my reckoning, dates to at least Lyndon Johnson. Others might go as far back as Roosevelt.
for those who thing the dot com had nothing to do with the real estate bubble are mistaken. a dot com crash followd the dot com bubble, while bush entered the presidency with a surplus he also entered with a recessionary economy, followed by 911; in view of this greenspan lowered rates and the gov't pumped money into housing. bush is to blame, so are the rest of the clowns. the fact that barney frank is still on the finance committee and even in gov't is a loud statement on the idiocy everywhere in gov't.
also, the harping on regulation is by those usually on the left side of the aisle, and while true does not account for hte massive credit expansion. regulations are required because the system is corrupted to place incentive in the wrong place, so regulations are "needed" to make up for incentives. and of course nothing is said of the regulations that contributed to this.
The last ten years has gone nowhere in sum because we had to pay for the unsustainable growth of the 90's that we borrowed from the future. The 90's was a bubble economy driven by overinvestmen in tech firms and their over valued stock prices. All of this was allowed to happen because of loose monetary policy with the money agragates growing at double digit year over year rates. When that bubble popped, instead of letting a correction to occur, fed policy became way to easy again and we kicked it down the road allowing for the housing bubble. We now must have a correction but we are doing it once again. As painful as it may be, we are now only trying to reinflate assets that have no business being as pricy as they are. Though I am by no means a fan of Bush, all of the Bush bashing over our eocnomy is making him a scapegoat by those who make the logical fallisy of confusing correlation and causation. If any one person deserves blame it's Greenspan, for allowing the bubble in the 90's and again in the housing bubble. Had Kerry won in 2004, all of this mess would have happened exactly the same and in his lap. Though Greenspan's mistakes are more of a symptom of the difficulty of central government planning of the eocnomy and less to do with the man himself. Until we start realizing that creating bubbles by poor manipulation of interest rates has more effect on the eocnomy then who holds the White House, then we are doomed to continue this cycle.
Obama hasn't even taken office and they're already blaming Bush, yet no one talks about Clinton and his failures on national security, regulation of CDOs, subprime lending, and so on...
The Democrats were the ones dead set against banking reform, ironically, and shot down changes to the CRA. The Republicans tried to reform things in 2005. Though Bush certainly could have done more to help them.
As long as we're spewing out theorticals and what ifs, I think it's fair to say that if Gore and the Democrats had been in power the last 8 years there would have been a lot more focus on alternative energy, on forcing the U.S. auto companies to compete against the Toyotas of the world.
Secondly, there would not have been an Iraq War. Plain and Simple. That shit was dreamed up by the neocons. It was 1) a huge waste of resources, lives, and money. 2) A huge distraction from economic issues. And 3) It ruined our standing in the globe.
I do agree with some who've said that that the Bush era actually accelerated the necessary end to an old paradigm. So in that was it was good.
Also, I'm not sure that Bush would characterize his economic decisions as mistakes. He gave lots of tax breaks to lots of his very rich supporters, so mission accomplished there.
"....[WSJ] they've been nothing but bubble cheerleaders, deregulators in the face of graft, and simple hacks for the last 6 years..."
What does that statement have to do with the Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged quote? You might want to try reading it again. (The book, not the press clipping)
you are spot on. On would think Bush and Republicans came to power in a coup. The country voted for the moron twice!! I would have hoped that Obama would have had the courage to tell the country the truth- he hasn't. He needed to tell folks that for too long we thought we could have it all. We spent too much and now the time has come to pay the piper.
Ryan W. writes:
The Democrats were the ones dead set against banking reform, ironically, and shot down changes to the CRA. The Republicans tried to reform things in 2005. Though Bush certainly could have done more to help them.
Ryan W. | 01.12.09 - 3:10 pm | #
give me a break- the CRA wasn't why the IB were doing all the deals. The CRA only applies to the banks and their direct loans are not where the problem is. You had a bunch of morons who thought they had discovered the modern day version of the philosopher's stone- converting crappy loans into gold via financial engineering.
You are right in your broad point but then shoot yourself in the foot by blaming FDR.
We have a free market system- the animal spirits will produce growth but they will also produce busts. I would say the problem is that we forgot that recessions are how a free market system purges its excesses. When the Fed moved in a direction of preventing recessions the die was cast. I find the Yellowstone fire in the 90's a particularly useful analogy. The fire service had a policy of suppressing fires which they did successfully until the big one. I think they have realized that allowing small fires is a good way to prevent a big one and has the added benefit of creating a healthy eco-system.
The Democrats were the ones dead set against banking reform, ironically, and shot down changes to the CRA. The Republicans tried to reform things in 2005. Though Bush certainly could have done more to help them.
Ryan W. | 01.12.09 - 3:10 pm | #
The CRA had next to nothing to do with the current problems, at most 1% of the total blame.
waiting for other shoe to drop on Bush
"ideological opposition to regulation and oversight" is euphemism for corruption and abuse of power.
Now we await the next 4-8 years of more of the same..
Successfully laid the foundations of Demolition as Stimulus
o call list has saved me so much in wasted conversation time with telemarketers.
so the 'jobless recovery' turned out to be a terrible innovation.
at least the Pittsburg 'coke smelters' beat the San Diego 'mortgage brokers'.
time to return to a useful U.S. expenditure of resources.
I agree 100%, but let's not sugar-coat it. Bush's two big mistakes were all the things he did and all the things he didn't do.
Oh...i forgot to mention, the title is on the front of a Mad mag, in my mind, with Alfred E mugging W
Given Bush's setbacks in foreign policy, lack of domestic achievements, sleeping at the wheel in spite of abundant high level warnings pre-911 regarding an impending major terrorist attack on the U.S, failure to find Bin Laden and finally presiding over the worst economic disaster facing the U.S since the Great Depression, "the lost decade" seems a pretty tame description of the last 10 years, in my opinion.
On the positive side, it was a gorgeous winter day here in Northern California, highs in the 60s and nothing but sunshine.
Muir Woods was a blast with the kids. And it was comforting to reflect that amidst the unstable hillsides and frequent earthquakes, the tallest living things have somehow managed to grow and survive, with the hardiest living for 1000-2000 years.
Redwoods as a metaphor for Western Civilization?
(On the negative side, plenty of fallen giants -- definitely a land of creative destruction.)
U.S. bank earnings may be frightful
| Reuters
U.S. bank earnings may be "frightful"
Now we await the next 4-8 years of more of the same..
Insights | 01.12.09 - 1:12 am | #
It's always the same... only different.
Don't read too much into it. He worked hard on one thing his whole life - pretending to be a Texan. Should we be surprised that he was just LBJ on a bigger and stupider scale?
"Redwoods as a metaphor for Western Civilization?"
I more see HIV as being the right metaphor for that.
Redwoods are just one of the most majestic and eternal things of the many entities we've trashed.
To be engraved above the entrance the GW Bush Presidential Library:
FAIL
The spooky part is I saw the Lost Decade header and thought... Zandi's calling for a lost decade (into the future)... then realized he meant the decade PAST. Oh shit - how lost will the NEXT decade be because the 'past' was nothing compared to what's coming.
I just toured the Bloomberg and Marketwatch sites.
Lot of guys saying recovery in 2009.
I guess that means I stay all cash.
JimPortlandOR writes:
I just toured the Bloomberg and Marketwatch sites.
Lot of guys saying recovery in 2009.
I know, isn't strange? They are all hauling on the same pipe, and have themselves convinced this is a recession. They don't get it, they just don't.
Ben & Jerry has created the "Yes Pecan!" ice cream flavor for Obama. For George W. the candidates were:
Cluster Fudge
Iraqi Road
Nut'n Accomplished
Chock 'n Awe
Grape Depression
Chimp-Peach
Heck of a Job, Brownie!
2 Terms 1 Nut
The Housing Crunch
Banana Republic
Guantanmallow
Chunky Monkey in Chief
Osama Split
and the winner:
Anchovy Fuckup Surprise
We lost a decade building a house of cards.
We will lose another decade just trying face the cards in the same direction.
test
"We will lose another decade just trying face the cards in the same direction."
in tribute to the average age of the median boomer, why not call it "52 pickup"
Look, Bush is no genius...but let's get real. The current crisis is just an extension of what caused the internet boom and bust, generated during Clinton's admin.
Housing was the perfect substitute bubble to keep the greatest credit bubble in history going.
The reason housing was perfect? Because of programs like the mere existance of Fannie and Freddie that made mortgage money artifically low due to the implied backing of the Fed Govt. Which meant the need for the magic of securitization to convince private companies they could compete. Combined with the tax benefit of the elimination of the capital gains on the sale of homes. These are things that were put into place long before Bush.
Blaming Bush may be theraputic, but it is a political distraction from the true causes of the current mess. If anyone is familiar with Barney Frank's attitude and current solutions, then you know it would be too much to expect that this bubble wouldn't have formed and popped had a Democrat been at the helm.
'Atlas Shrugged': From Fiction to Fact in 52 Years - WSJ.com
WSJ Opinion:
'Atlas Shrugged': From Fiction to Fact in 52 Years
What could a GW Bush library possibly consist of other than a shredded copy of the Constitution and "My Pet Goat?
"other than"
if anything, there's too much material
Blaming Bush may be theraputic, but it is a political distraction from the true causes of the current mess.
Average Joe | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 1:37 am | #
Many, many ways to answer and disagree with this. But it's late and I'll keep it to one single instance that exemplifies the Bush administration:
WaPo: Regulatory Failure at the Office of Thrift Supervision
This was designed incompetence!
In the periodicals section:
The Collected Wisdom of Bill Kristol
New Acquistions:
Karl Rove's Permanent Republican Ascendency
Rare Books:
The Federalist Papers
I blame it on Flip This House, Flip That House, Property Ladder, Flipping Out, and a dozen others. At the end of each half-hour or hour show, the flipper was at least 30K richer, sometimes 120k richer, and it only took 6 weeks.
For 2 years, all day long on Saturday's, flippers were getting rich - and we were just watching, until there was nothing left, no other way to get rich, except flipping houses.
So I blame it on TLC and humbly would like to pitch a new idea called, Foreclose This House, and follow the families as they divorce, move in with their relatives, and watch as the home soon becomes a crack house.
Blaming Bush may be theraputic, but it is a political distraction from the true causes of the current mess
LOL! The poor old guy who asked to be in charge is just a victim. Boo-hoo-hoo.
Average Joe writes:
Look, Bush is no genius...but let's get real. The current crisis is just an extension of what caused the internet boom and bust, generated during Clinton's admin.
--
respectfully the dot com bubble and this financial crisis have little in common
the current mess required 4 things to come together
free money courtesy greenspan
the total abdication of regulation of the markets by the bush administration (because the markets know best...invisible hand and all that shit)
exotic securitization on wall street, the asymptotic rise of derivatives esp swaps plus the creation of the structured investment vehicle along with tranches and packaging of a gazillion loans into an untraceable mixed up mess
free for all feeding frenzie by loan originators cause they didnt have to keep the loans in their portfolios and so they invited no doc, liar loans regardless of individuals credit worthiness
the dot com bubble was a mania and was fueled in part by y2k expenditures and the concommittant belief that all that glitters is tech
And for every Article RE posts, there is one on the other side:
New Agency Proposed to Oversee Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae - The New York Times
"The Bush administration today recommended the most significant regulatory overhaul in the housing finance industry since the savings and loan crisis a decade ago....
The plan is an acknowledgment by the administration that oversight of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- which together have issued more than $1.5 trillion in outstanding debt -- is broken.....
A report by outside investigators in July concluded that Freddie Mac manipulated its accounting to mislead investors, and critics have said Fannie Mae does not adequately hedge against rising interest rates.
Significant details must still be worked out before Congress can approve a bill. Among the groups denouncing the proposal today were the National Association of Home Builders and Congressional Democrats who fear that tighter regulation of the companies could sharply reduce their commitment to financing low-income and affordable housing.
''These two entities -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- are not facing any kind of financial crisis,'' said Representative Barney Frank of Massachusetts, the ranking Democrat on the Financial Services Committee. ''The more people exaggerate these problems, the more pressure there is on these companies, the less we will see in terms of affordable housing.''
Representative Melvin L. Watt, Democrat of North Carolina, agreed.
''I don't see much other than a shell game going on here, moving something from one agency to another and in the process weakening the bargaining power of poorer families and their ability to get affordable housing,'' Mr. Watt said.
From the last thread..
No kidding!! Most westerners do not appreciate the importance of 'face' in eastern cultures. Obama would be well served to read about the history of that region. Plus the chinese have a massive chip on the shoulder.. The idea of threatening China without giving them a 'face saving' option is too stupid to contemplate.
Having said that, giving China an option that includes opening up their domestic market and stop playing mercantilism is doable.. if you sell it as a way of uplifting rural chinese from poverty. Now that is something the chinese rulers will like..
//China does not take kindly to blatant threats and values "face" more than Westerners will ever understand. I've been married to a Chinese woman for over a decade and still barely understand how important this is.
The CCP will never publicly cave to overt blackmail, I hope Obama is smarter than this. They will turn inwards just as they have many times in the past, even if they go down in flames.
Pissed Off In California | 01.12.09 - 1:37 am | #//
--
Bush did not steer the country toward a more sound long-term fiscal position. After winning reelection, he made a failed push both to tweak Social Security to stabilize its long-term finances and create private accounts for Americans to invest in the stock market.
Anyone notice this non-sequitur in the article? The rest of the article is equally stupid and/or mendacious.
OT from the previous thread (took me 2 hours to read it)
MP i agree with your list and have argued here that the gov has to leap frog the locked up banks
you argue for taking the chartered ones over, kool, and i put forth a bank of the USA like mmcknly has stated
MS
i agree that the demise of glass steagal sounded the chords of doom
but truth be known, glass steagal was being dis-embowled by administrative fiat and blind sightedness for years before the final death knell and clintons signature
Someone needs to send a memo to the Border Patrol; they need to allow 3-4 million more Mexicans into the US.
Obama's got a Stimulus Plan!
Um, except for the 0.3-0.4 million government jobs that will be created, of course!
Most of you see the bush presidency as a disaster.. I do not..
The reason is very simple.. The course taken by the west in the last 30 years was bound to end in tears. Bush merely sped up the process towards its logical end. By being so incompetent, he allowed the faults of the system to become obvious much sooner.
In that respect he is a lot like Hitler, whose actions (repugnant as they may have been) forced the end of european colonialism.
average Joe
the only problem with the article you cite is that
the article was written andd the legislation was proposed in 2003 when the republicans controlled the house and the senate
and barney frank was just a minority member of the house banking committee , not the chair
and finally, the part of the article you did not post says the major change was to take way from the president the right to appoint several members of the board of directors???
how was this an improvement
ps i agree that barney franks assessment of the dangers was way way low balling the problem
All civilized manners die when it comes to suvival of the fittest.
It doesnt matter whether chineese needs facing or Japaneese can print to oblivion or euro can become reserve currency.
This is about teaching everyong what faith, belief and honest about. It doesnt take (like) bullshit and monekying around the syntax.
People's faith in fiat currency is destroyed. What is missing still now is that the people and not yet completely realized it. But they are started to realizing this.
All developed countries will undergo terrible depression. All developing countries will undergo terrible hyper inflation. Anyone who says hyperinflation is prefered than depression will be shown what is going on developing countries and vice versa.
Also understand this, fiat currency has its benefits which cant be disputed or left out. First and foremost is efficient in using and circulating it.
So fiat currency will live but the theives (FED & CB) cant steal any value out of it through inflation.
Protectnism will be taken to the highest level anyone could imagine.
AJ - Puhleeze
So much jibberish in such a small space. One point, distinguishing dot com and lot bomb bubbles, Dot com was paper wealth, real estate bubble was paper wealth with debt which was leveraged. Neither were good, one was substantially worse.
My thoughts on the threat of credit card companies pulling credit lines
-Let them! If they are stupid and intellectually lazy- they just might. But once they do that the processes they will set in motion will destroy them and the banks behind them.
Nothing gets people motivated to lynch banksters like not having enough to eat or being unable to afford basic stuff. The reality is that credit has been used to paper up declining real wages and unreported inflation in the last 26 years... If you remove that backstop, there will be a lot of blood on the streets- literally.
Mock,
The point of the article is that the delusion of the problem was widespread. People STILL aren't honest about what's going on. Yes Bush could have stopped it...but I didn't see Bush fighting against a wave of those who "knew better" and were demanding change. For Bush to have addressed the issues that created the bubble, he would have been a lone voice.
Look at Frank's statement about lower priced money being necessary for low-income housing. THAT IS A BLATANT LIE ON IT'S FACE and shows a profound ignorance, willful or otherwise, about the dynamics of housing.
If money is expensive the housing prices drop! Historically housing prices where line with incomes and the price of the house was lower or higher depending on the price of financing. It was offsetting and irrelevant to the buyer in a normal market. You cant make housing more affordable by making money more affordable! It's common sense!
The housing bubble was a cause of a systemic and corrupt system with a long legacy and many hands. Bush is to be blamed for allowing it, but not causing it.
reform was torpedoed by...
"In the 108th Congress, the House Financial Services Committee reached an agreement to markup legislation originally scheduled for October 8, 2003. However, on October 7, 2003, the Treasury Department announced its opposition to this agreement, killing progress on GSE reform. (Congressional Research Service, "Improving the Effectiveness of GSE Oversight: Legislative Proposals in the 108th Congress."
http://www.senate.gov/cgi-bin/404s.pl?urlminushost=/dpc-new.cfm&remote_addr=67.170.2.103&httphost=dpc.senate.gov - This page cannot be found.
Average Joe
we dont completely dissagree
no argument there were several causes
cheap money...greenspans 1% interest rate was the rocket fuel
but lets face it, dems are famous for wanting too much regulation and repubs are famous for not wanting much if any
lack of oversight and regulation was a major contributing factor
hank paulsons genius exotic securitization friends on wall street was the icing on the cake
do i fault clinton for signing p gramms bill ending 1/2 of glass steagal...yes, and one of clintons boyz, rubin joined with gramm as poart architect of the mess
the deregulation mantra goes back to reagan, and even a little before...big mistake
The course taken by the west in the last 30 years was bound to end in tears. Bush merely sped up the process towards its logical end
What you are saying is that Bush represents the apotheosis of Reganism. But that doesn't mean that Bush was not a disaster, or that he wasn't responsible for the failure of his ideology. He wanted to be at the top and he can damn well take responsibility.
"But most of the whining takes the form of claims that the Bush administrations failure was simply a matter of bad luck either the bad luck of President Bush himself, who just happened to have disasters happen on his watch, or the bad luck of the G.O.P., which just happened to send the wrong man to the White House.
The fault, however, lies not in Republicans stars but in themselves. Forty years ago the G.O.P. decided, in effect, to make itself the party of racial backlash. And everything that has happened in recent years, from the choice of Mr. Bush as the partys champion, to the Bush administrations pervasive incompetence, to the partys shrinking base, is a consequence of that decision..."
OP-ED COLUMNIST; Bigger Than Bush - NY Times
We should know all about with saving face, we've been dealing with Italians for a long time and they are all about saving face, even if it is of a different nature than thevasian variety.
I wish this thread was up earlier, the discourse between myself and MS is much more appropo here.
Needless to say, attempts to keep housing cheap was not the cause of anything, just a symptom of loose monetary policy. I don't see how so many otherwise smart people miss this obvious point.
Bush is the logical conclusion of the rot that started with Reagan, Thatcher etc .. I am not saying that socialism or militant labor unions are good either. Merely that we have a reached a stage where humans cannot play the "prisoners dilemma" like they always have..
//What you are saying is that Bush represents the apotheosis of Reganism. But that doesn't mean that Bush was not a disaster, or that he wasn't responsible for the failure of his ideology. He wanted to be at the top and he can damn well take responsibility.//
FFDIC, still waiting on Citi news.
Mock,
Nice Try,
"Not only did the Bush Administration ignore the warning signs about risky mortgages, they encouraged the very practices that are at the heart of the current economic crisis and stood in the way of efforts that would have prevented the crisis."
How about posting links to the articles of the Democrats in power who were screaming about the dangerous lending practices, the risky loans, the inflating housing bubble, the pending bust, etc?
Like I said...Bush did ignore the warning signs...along with everyone else in power. The only ones saying it were blogs!!! Trust me...I listened.
All of Washington was in denial or worse. Bush was in power, true, and I too am furious at him for failing ot act...But I'm not so dilusional to think that it would have been different with anyone else.
Average Joe,
If you believe that republicans are much better than democrats or vice versa- you are believing in a religion. The reality is that they are rather similar, though the republicans have more hypocrites and the democrats are more corrupt.
Average Joe, theere is no defending Bush. The man and his policies are why we are where we are. Actually, its why discussion boards like this exist.
Is the moon out tonight where you llive?
What say you go out and howl at it if it is.
Ignore the warning signs?
Bush figured if kerosene works(fannie and freddie), why not gasoline(forcing more subprime lending)?
oh... but he's a "good guy"....
oy vey...
It is not true to say we went nowhere.
There are the large numbers in the 'we' who rode the boom (and lobbied for no regs) have made vast fortunes and will life the rest of their lives in gilded luxury chatting to each other about how clever they were.
"If you believe that republicans are much better than democrats or vice versa- you are believing in a religion."
Exactly my point. I started this discussion by saying those looking to find the cause of this in Bush are going to be sorely dissapointed, because the alternative to Bush, whoever that would have been, would have suffered the same fate.
I am not defending Bush. I am saying that the cause of this Bubble was widespread...over multiple administrations, caused by ignorance, incompetence, corruption,...
I am saying not to be so myopic on Bush. He is but one cog in this wheel.
The mistakes are still being made and look to be compounded by the solutions.
Those blaming Bush soley for this are blinded by politics.
I might add that anyone thinking this began with Reagan are also sorely mistaken.
"forced the end of european colonialism"
a much better than average Goodwin, but the average latin american leftist of the past fifty years would contend that the gringo variety was just as bad if not worse. I wouldn't necessarily agree, being a fan of the monroe doctrine for the most part.
As for muni bonds, alexei - i get the tax reasoning, but why the gluttony for default risk? corporate bonds are still so beat on as to pay twice even the worst munis. worried about commodity inflation? just buy some gsg as an appetizer to the main fixed-income entree, problem solved.
Of course, Zandi is the one who is now advocating a budget deficit of $1 Trillion or more in the next year. Fine Mark, but how do we end up paying for it? Krugman / Keynesian spend now, pay later didn't work the last time, and it isn't going to work this time....
"I might add that anyone thinking this began with Reagan are also sorely mistaken"
personally, i think the premise behind the FHA was misguided in the first place, but i'm an unreconstructed isolationist goldbug paleoconservative who thinks american culture started to go downhill when gershwin moved west
"because the alternative to Bush, whoever that would have been, would have suffered the same fate. "
agree on the main point, but that, my friend is speculative horseshit of the worst kind. W's doubling of the national debt, creation of tens of trillions in new entitlements and creation of out lowest diplomatic standing in the entire history of the nation is a very, very special achievement. only lbj was this texas-sized in his stupidity, and only that trifecta of disastrous presidents stretching from jfk to nixon can compare in real, lasting damage. W trumps even those three stooges, collectively and individually. why devalue his greatness?
As long as we are playing the blame game ...
September 30, 1999
"Fannie Mae, the nation's biggest underwriter of home mortgages, has been under increasing pressure from the Clinton Administration to expand mortgage loans among low and moderate income people and felt pressure from stock holders to maintain its phenomenal growth in profits."
NYTimes
"to expand mortgage loans among low and moderate income people"
only one person in all of washington stood up against this general bias - ron paul.
i really wonder if he could have secured the nomination had the events of the past year occurred a year earlier.
It began much earlier.. well, it is complicated... but essentially two things that happened in the last 100 years changed us in ways we still cannot accept-
We still have not appreciated and assimilated the effects of that change. We function as if we were in the pre-1900 world, whereas our society cannot work with that world-view. We kept on patching the old way rather than change. The reagan revolution was the last try.. It ended under bush.. and obama.
//I might add that anyone thinking this began with Reagan are also sorely mistaken.
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) | 01.12.09 - 2:43 am | #//
A good advertising campaign
Claude Hopkins wrote leads directly to the sale of a product or service.
Bill Gates wrote shows company management connecting with normal people.
Jerry Seinfeld wrote pays 10 million and doesnt even require me to be funny!
Survey: Advertising | Systemically Important
from NYT article
"Eight years after arriving in Washington vowing to spread the dream of homeownership, Mr. Bush is leaving office, as he himself said recently, faced with the prospect of a global meltdown with roots in the housing sector he so ardently championed.
There are plenty of culprits, like lenders who peddled easy credit, consumers who took on mortgages they could not afford and Wall Street chieftains who loaded up on mortgage-backed securities without regard to the risk.
But the story of how we got here is partly one of Mr. Bushs own making, according to a review of his tenure that included interviews with dozens of current and former administration officials.
From his earliest days in office, Mr. Bush paired his belief that Americans do best when they own their own home with his conviction that markets do best when let alone.
He pushed hard to expand homeownership, especially among minorities, an initiative that dovetailed with his ambition to expand the Republican tent and with the business interests of some of his biggest donors. But his housing policies and hands-off approach to regulation encouraged lax lending standards."
THE RECKONING; White House Philosophy Stoked Mortgage Bonfire - NY Times
i really wonder if he could have secured the nomination had the events of the past year occurred a year earlier.
bgates | 01.12.09 - 2:53 am | #
No chance. People can't handle the truth.
bgates,
The problem is that the nature of our system has changed such that 'old ideas' are no longer workable. Even worse, you cannot deconstruct an emergent system.
Bush proudly took credit for the increase in the rate of home ownership in several of his state of the union addresses.
There is no question that he is not responsible for any of the downside though!
As for muni bonds, alexei - i get the tax reasoning, but why the gluttony for default risk? corporate bonds are still so beat on as to pay twice even the worst munis.
Default risk as opposed to corporate?
I own paper outright in my name, not in funds.
I'm out of MI, OH, FL statewide, exposed to NJ, AZ and CA district by district and NY/NJPortAuthority. My homework is a helluva lot easier on this paper than most corporate debt.
Unless the company is sitting on a mountain of cash along with that debt corporate is random decimation, so yields don't makep for risk.
skizye
that article you referenced...here's a quote
"Under Fannie Mae's pilot program, consumers who qualify can secure a mortgage with an interest rate one percentage point above that of a conventional, 30-year fixed rate mortgage of less than $240,000 -- a rate that currently averages about 7.76 per cent. If the borrower makes his or her monthly payments on time for two years, the one percentage point premium is dropped.
Fannie Mae, the nation's biggest underwriter of home mortgages, does not lend money directly to consumers. Instead, it purchases loans that banks make on what is called the secondary market. By expanding the type of loans that it will buy, Fannie Mae is hoping to spur banks to make more loans to people with less-than-stellar credit ratings."
note
fannie andd freddy did not ORIGINATE loans
the no doc, liar , ninja loan world is a creation of the last 8 years
specifically greenspan argued in favor of it before congress and the bush administration in early 202 i believe (will check date)
interesting to note that the subprime stuff blowing up aint 10 or 20 years old
the crisis stemmed from loans originated in the last 8 years
In 2004, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan continued to encourage higher-risk mortgages: "American consumers might benefit if lenders provided greater mortgage product alternatives to the traditional fixed-rate mortgage... The traditional fixed-rate mortgage may be an expensive method of financing a home." (2/23/04) Later, when "[a]sked why he didn't speak out, if he knew these practices were going on or even suspected that there was something illegal or shady, Greenspan admits, 'While I was aware a lot of these practices were going on, I had no notion of how significant they had become until very late. I didn't really get it until very late in 2005 and 2006.'" (CBS News, 9/13/07)
Senators Dodd and Sarbanes warned Chairman Greenspan about the dangers of promoting the use of nontraditional mortgages: "Adjustable rate mortgages, for a low income constituency, [are] a nightmare." (Senator Dodd, Senate Banking Committee hearing, 2/24/04) "[The Federal Reserve] is pushing adjustable rate mortgages...and throwing this risk back on the consumer...in effect, downing the 30 year fixed rate mortgage and pushing up the adjustable rate mortgage." (Senator Sarbanes, Senate Banking Committee hearing, 2/24/04)
The two party system masquerade hopefully will be seen for the grand illusion it is when the final history of the USA is written.
BUT...
Bush is the worst President in the history of the USA.
Think of WW II, I can only name the leaders and the generals on all sides. I can tell you who was seen as the good guys and who were the villains. Bush will be a villain.
States warned about impending mortgage crisis
Bush administration, financial industry thwarted efforts to curb greed
BusinessWeek.com
snip
"Some states, including North Carolina and Georgia, passed laws aimed at deterring rash loans only to have federal authorities undercut them. In Iowa and other states, mortgage mills arranged to be acquired by nationally regulated banks and in the process fended off more-assertive state supervision. In Ohio the story took a different twist: State lawmakers acting at the behest of lenders squelched an attempt by the Cleveland City Council to slow the subprime frenzy.
A number of factors contributed to the mortgage disaster and credit crunch. Interest rate cuts and unprecedented foreign capital infusions fueled thoughtless lending on Main Street and arrogant gambling on Wall Street. The trading of esoteric derivatives amplified risks it was supposed to mute.
One cause, though, has been largely overlooked: the stifling of prescient state enforcers and legislators who tried to contain the greed and foolishness. They were thwarted in many cases by Washington officials hostile to regulation and a financial industry adept at exploiting this ideology.
The Bush Administration and many banks clung to what is known as "preemption." It is a legal doctrine that can be invoked in court and at the rulemaking table to assert that, when federal and state authority over business conflict, the feds prevail even if it means little or no regulation."
i judge that bill clinton did several things that set the country on the wrong course and he shares some blame
but make no mistake this monster was grown, nourished and set loose on the country during the last eight years
'
funny isnt it, the party that always complained about how welfare queens and others fail to take personal responsibility now tries to blame everyone else for failures on their watch
It's easy to blame greenspan, and bush too, and I do. BUt more likely the real blame is on all of us collectively. Clinton was no great regulator, and the repeal of glass-steagall occurred on his watch.
Maybe there is no way of avoiding a huge increase in the collective appetite for risk that occurs around 80 years following the previous debt collapse. Certainly prudence and savings will grow for an extended period, but what about in the 2080's, after those that lived through this debacle have died? We can pass whatever new and better reforms we want to, but a later generation is perfectly free to undo and/or ignore them.
One difference this time is peak oil and the 6.5 billion homo sapiens. The substitutes will not provide us with anything like the standard of living we have grown accustomed to.
I was amused by an earlier post: "Don't read too much into it. He worked hard on one thing his whole life - pretending to be a Texan. Should we be surprised that he was just LBJ on a bigger and stupider scale?" I earlier thought johnson was our worst president, certainly when ignoring the civil rights legislation, but we do indeed have a competitor.
Mock- which is why many threw their party out of office.
70's Keynesianism wasn't so great either..Reagan-Bush II was merely a reaction to that. Real wages are still lower than 1972 or so.
A far more fundamental breakdown is occurring, beyond the rank ineptitude of Bush II. It's likely that the next decade will also be a 'lost' one.
Dot com was paper wealth, real estate bubble was paper wealth with debt which was leveraged. Neither were good, one was substantially worse.
Yes, idiots buying pets.com shares didn't interfere with my very existence on this planet. But everyone needs space to live and work, which requires land, which the flippers and easy-money with their zero value-add rent-chasing was making more & more expensive for everyone.
Driving home values from $400K to $800K in my zipcode was not wealth creation! Far, far from it.
dryfly, the last of the UnemployedIT folks sends regards. It is like a abandoned box car with few old hobos aboard out of habit, now.
Lost decade all right. The next decade may be also lost if the long wave folks are right as we wait the next tech driven boom.
Bush can go back to what he is good at. Drinking!
Mock T.
you are on fire! Excellent work.
Thanks.
Bush can go back to what he is good at. Drinking!
Speed Racer
Like everything else, he wasn't very good at that, either.
Yes, idiots buying pets.com shares didn't interfere with my very existence on this planet. But everyone needs space to live and work, which requires land, which the flippers and easy-money with their zero value-add rent-chasing was making more & more expensive for everyone.
This has been my biggest complaint concerning the housing bubble as well. How many families --including mine-- have been sidelined for many years because we refused to participate in this madness?
Renting has been my savior, and is certainly far, far from the cruelest fate one can suffer. However, quite frankly, assuming the buy-vs-rent equation had been balanced, I would probably have bought a house by now. The non-financial benefits of ownership are real and non-trivial: getting to decide which improvements/rennovations get made and when, not having to worry about arbitrary rent increases, evictions, avoiding asshole or crooked LLs, etc.
You want to talk about "blameless victims"? How about those who didn't get anything of value out of the bubble --but must now pay for it with our present and future tax dollars, off-the-books inflation, plus a wrecked economy that now threatens our livelihoods? Put me down as "blameless victim", Exhibit A.
I earlier thought johnson was our worst president, certainly when ignoring the civil rights legislation, but we do indeed have a competitor.
jkiss | 01.12.09 - 3:19 am | #
I think you have to wait for some future generation to make that call; we're still too close for sound dispassionate judgement. But given the extensive lists of failures exposed during the last few years, we've got a great candidate. You know, there were people who questioned whether Nolan Ryan should make the Hall of Fame on the first ballot, even with seven no-hitters to his credit. Well, I'm confident that Bush the Younger is a shoo-in for the Hall of Infamy, if not unanimously chosen as worst ever.
And as anon said about heroes and villians: villian. It hardly matters if Bush is personally to blame for the financial blow-up: it happened on his eight year watch and he's the C-in-C. I'm not a military man, so I don't know if there's a special exemption for this remarkable lapse. Perhaps someone who knows the responsibility of command can say?
sdtfs, I'm not a military man, and I too await the input of someone who is or was. But it is my understanding that the executive is the C-in-C of the armed forces, period. Constitutionally, he's not the head of the country, or even of the government-- our soon to be outpastured VP's notions to the contrary.
There's enough blame (going way back) to share, but I plead guilty to seeing GWB and Greenspan as just the men for the job: execute the decline of the republic.
Oh, that and the abstention of citizen vigilance, and lack of personal responsibility.
Easy to deplore the deplorable.
G.W. Bush, where to start ?
do i miss something ?
But it is my understanding that the executive is the C-in-C of the armed forces, period. Constitutionally, he's not the head of the country, or even of the government-- our soon to be outpastured VP's notions to the contrary
The first part is correct. Constitutionally, it's Congress' army with the President in ultimate command authority -- a subtle separation of powers between overall regulatory responsibility and day-to-day command.
Playing the blame game is stupid, however. The important thing is to not listen to stupid people.
Conveniently, Murdoch has collected them in 3 or 4 places now, like the WSJ Op Ed pages, Weekly Standard, FOX, etc etc.
However, the President is in fact head of government AND head of state (the latter in constitutional monarchies being held by the reigning royal).
"September 30, 1999
"Fannie Mae, the nation's biggest underwriter of home mortgages, has been under increasing pressure from the Clinton Administration to expand mortgage loans among low and moderate income people and felt pressure from stock holders to maintain its phenomenal growth in profits."
OK, so were house prices inflated under Clinton? No they weren't. They were well within historical norms. So there was no evidence during his administration thst his housing polices might have been faulty.
The fact is that house prices got out of control under Bush, and Bush not only refused to acknowledge the problem, but actively pursued policies to make the problem worse.
- NY Times
Trying to blame Clinton for the housing bubble is like trying to blame Eisenhower for the Vietnam War. Sure some of the roots lie with those administrations, but that in no way excuses the behavior of their successors who turned a latent problem into a disaster.
Electoral fraud
- Useless Wars (~ 85,000 dead people)
- Massive corruption (dozen of billions)
- Patriot Act & Homeland dictatorship
- Massive Deficit for our children (added $5T to the public debt)
- Severe recession ( 5 millions jobs lost at least)
Off by an order of magnitude maybe on 1.
Pretty much spot-on with 2 given the genereral lax oversight of the coalition authority in Iraq.
Dictatorship? Get a hold of yourself! I've never understood the brouhaha about PATRIOT; it may be the toolset for future dictatorship but I'm not worried about that now.
The added debt isn't troubling in the least; what was untaxed in 2002 can be re-taxed sooner or later.
Tough blaming the President about the recession. His team thought they found the magic beans to get us out of the dotcom implosion tech recession, but they were playing with fire. Assuming your #1 goal in 2002 is to get reelected in 2004, I really can't blame the President's team for pulling the housing bubble lever. I'd have done the same thing, LOL.
So there was no evidence during his administration thst his housing polices might have been faulty.
The latter half of the Clinton Admin certainly laid the general trajectory in for his follow-on, whether it was Gore or Bush. 'course, if it was Gore then the team in power would have largely stayed the same I guess. No modification of the upper marginal tax rates, no Iraq war, so the national debt would be about a trillion less than it is now.
One dynamic that was getting going under Clinton was the massive trade imbalance with China, which they recycled into GSE bond purchases. This provided a lot of liquidity to fan the flames of the housing bubble.
Troy, regarding executive power as "head of government" and "head of state", I regret that you are practically correct when referring to despotic democracies as opposed to monarchies.
I certainly don't think our system was designed with this function in mind for the executive. Many citizens prefer to propound a system closer to the founders' intentions in which the powers are separate, independent and limited.
Since at least Lincoln (or Whiskey Rebellion if you want to push it), this has been an idealization that the constitution failed to protect adequately against a series of ambitious executives defining their powers through brute force.
Separation of powers - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
That's my HO, but I'm merely a citizen.
Troy, so if the administration pulled the housing lever based on their faith in the magic beans, does that not imply responsibility?
BTW, I totally agree about the wanton political incontinence of most all elected officials, but that's not a very good excuse, is it?
Troy, regarding executive power as "head of government" and "head of state
Anak | 01.12.09 - 5:21 am | #
Yeah, I got that. But isn't that why we elect one person to be our "King in the grove of Nemae"? So we can say that they are the resposible person?
While it is fun to blame Bush for everything, I really see him as more of a puppet, at least in terms of the domestic housing issue (The colossal blunders in Iraq being another matter). It was obvious to me during the period when the $700 billion bailout was being pushed through Congress that the leaders of both parties were completely clueless and were simply deferring to the financial guys, Paulson and especially Bernanke. I see the same cluelessness now with Obama. They are going to Keynes us to death, a bit like feeding a 7-course meal to a food poisoning victim.
I agree with Average Joe, very little difference in terms of parties.
sdtfs, could you help with that reference? I don't know what voters expect really, even the informed ones.
The perennial tussle between the politicians and the bureaucrats in the U.S. system is interesting to watch. But when facing the public, both tend to avoid responsibility either through legal sophistry or well crafted sound bites.
Ultimately, I follow the advice of a poster here some time ago who urged us to expect little, fear little, and keep our distance to the degree possible.
Troy, totally agree about the blame game script disseminated in the Murdoch organs.
Paul Craig Roberts:
"However, any resemblance to independent reporting disappeared from the American media when the Democratic regime of President Clinton allowed Murdoch and a small handful of moguls to concentrate the American media in a few corporate hands. That was the end of American reporting.
Journalists disappeared from media management and were replaced by corporate advertising executives with an eye not to offend any source of advertising revenue, and certainly not to offend the government, which controls the broadcast licenses that comprise the value of the mega-companies. Today reporters write the stories that their masters want to hear, or they are out. The function of editors is to make certain that no uncomfortable information reaches the public."
The public is slowly catching on, and the print media is slowly dying. The New York Times, Chicago Tribune, and Los Angeles Times are all on the ropes to one extent or the other."
Thankfully this observation comes to us from a former editor of the WSJ and Reagan era Treas official, done seen the light.
Good mooorrrrning Maryland!
I love the smell of fiscal napalm in the morning.
Here's the new total - 44 states in the tank, some projecting out to 2011.
That's right, states' revenue economists are saying we are in the sh!tpile for years to come. Why the geniuses working at fed level can't see that is A Great Question for our Age.
Recession Continues to Batter State Budgets; State Responses Could Slow Recovery — Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
Mock/POIC/lucifer - nice work.
C
The WaPo article does not even begin to address the profound, criminal negligence and dereliction of duty displayed by these idealogues.
The article is an attempt to register a revisionist view with the aim of minimizing the damage this American Fascist has caused.
thank you oh great Zandi... sent an email out3 days ago to some family and a few friends, saying essentially the same thing back, in the podunck town where I grew up in Indiana and their response was 'crickets' or some off putting remark. maybe Jas in onto someth
Duke / Anak - if you're still up Yazhou time:
YouTube - Nightmares On Wax - Nights Interlude [Quincy Jones "Summer in the city" ] CD: Smoker's Delight
C
if it was Gore then the team in power would have largely stayed the same I guess.
That's right - you guess. What Gore might or might not have done is irrelevant because Gore wasn't the president. He isn't responsible for what happened during Bush's term in office, nor is Clinton. Bush is.
It's ridiculous to imply that Bush was in any way bound to follow Clinton's policies in housing or anything else. Indeed he campaigned on making a break with Clinton. It's amazing how Bush's apologists are so unwilling to assign him any responsibility for his administration's blunders, just as Bush is unwilling to take any blame himself. Monkey see, monkey do.
Contrast this with a man who knew something about taking responsibility - JFK. He accepted the blame for the Bay of Pigs fiasco even though the whole operation had been planned under Eisenhower.
Wow, IMF rattling the can for more funds.
Just.
Think.
A.
Little.
What.
That.
Implies...
Strauss-Kahn Says IMF May Need Another $150 Billion for Crisis - Bloomberg.com
C
When will the stupidity of blaming "lack of regulation" for problems created by government sink into the bloggers here? The government creates booms and then gives the rating agencies an oligopoly to intentionally understate all risk and "lack of regulation" is somehow to blame?
There is too much regulation. Laws, regulations, and taxes make this country non-competitive on almost all non-leveraged businesses. Go to Honk Kong or Singapore if you don't believe me.
Government "education" is the largest problem. The blogger here actually thinks he or she has a clue in blaming a lack of regulation for our troubles. And this individual is probably relatively well "educated."
Unfortunately, only a complete collapse of the U.S. is likely to make the socialists in this country realize their errors and even then I'm sure they'll blame the 3% of the free-market that is left for a "market failure."
A pox on all of your houses, you socialist destroyers of all things good. The Founding Fathers would want you booted off the continent and for good reason. Every idea you have is wrong.
It is amazing how some people have excused everything that Bush has or hasn't done.
Back in 2002 he pushed very hard for a war with Iraq based on Iraqs possesion of Weapons of Mass Destrcution. As we all know now there weren't any. Bush somehow knew they were there though. His appologists claimed everyone else believed the same thing and that he wasn't to blame.
Banks in the U.S. were playing with weapons of financial mass destruction and detonated them all over America and G.W. didn't have a clue what was going on. His apologists claim that Clinton is to blame for this mess.
G.W. saw boogey men where none existed and couldn't see the real boogey men in our midst. He didn't get much right.
Here's another look at the sh!tpile, from HK's Tan King indices, via Kaboomberger.
Disaggregating, the biggest losses are in China enterprises, Mainland 25 and H Financials.
Ouch.
HANG SENG INDEX\t13,971.00\t-406.44\t-2.83%\t03:10
HANG SENG COMPOSITE INDX\t1,901.00\t-62.39\t-3.18%\t03:10
S&P/HKEx LargeCap Index\t17,389.11\t-490.47\t-2.74%\t05:31
S&P/HKEx GEM Index\t363.62\t-10.51\t-2.81%\t05:31
HS FREEFLOAT COMP INDEX\t1,997.58\t-66.13\t-3.20%\t03:10
HANG SENG HK FREEFLT IX\t1,502.01\t-25.41\t-1.66%\t03:10
HANG SENG CHINA ENT INDX\t7,311.23\t-412.58\t-5.34%\t03:10
HANG SENG CHINA AFF.CRP\t3,122.65\t-104.69\t-3.24%\t03:10
HS MAINLAND FREEFLOAT IX\t4,059.70\t-186.24\t-4.39%\t03:10
HANG SENG 50 INDEX\t1,958.77\t-60.31\t-2.99%\t03:10
HANG SENG HK 25 INDEX\t1,445.34\t-21.41\t-1.46%\t03:10
HANG SENG MAINLAND25 IX\t4,769.40\t-214.95\t-4.31%\t03:10
HANG SENG H-FINANCIALS\t9,277.37\t-501.51\t-5.13%\t03:10
Shipping and big plant energy are off too:
Keppel, Cosco Drop as Shipbuilding, Offshore Orders Terminated - Bloomberg.com
Dryfreight derivatives facing disorderly unwind:
Lloyd's List - Headlines
And all this before sun up.
C
Ju 4:29 - Let's not forget losing NO.
Anak(Unrated) writes:
sdtfs, could you help with that reference?
Golden Bough. Referring to the universal human practice of electing a symbolic king who can be made responsible for general calamity. (See also "tending to the altars of soil and grain" in Chinese practice.)
All those tax cuts for the wealthy on the back of budget deficits were a great idea.
Extend that thinking to its logical conclusion - no federal taxes whatsoever and perpetual budget deficits of 15% of GDP.
What could be better?
Reform plan raises fears of Bank secrecy
link one -- Banking Bill
The Bank of England will be able to print extra money without having legally to declare it under new plans which will heighten fears that the Government will secretly pump extra cash into the economy.
So maybe the USD isn't in such a bad shape after all..rally on!
I don't have a Lloyd's List subs Counterpointer, could you post a salient pp or two?
Also, C-Ptr, "course-correct" posted this last night / afternoon. You might find this useful if you haven't already seen it:
Railfax Report - North American Rail Freight Traffic Carloading Report
Byz - much of the same is free here:
Pacific Shipper
It ain't pretty.
C
C, yes a brutal day on the Hang Seng-- that Nightmares on Wax is getting me outa there.
And Byz thanks. If you ever come to China, let me know. I'll be your humble translator and we'll go to the park to see the Wusetu in Beijing.
And Futures are responding ... Erm, not:
\tVALUE\tCHANGE\t% CHANGE
Dow\t8,521.00\t-2.00\t-0.02
S&P 500\t884.50\t-1.00\t-0.11
NASDAQ 100\t1,223.00\t1.50\t0.12
And the bubbleheads keep mouthing inanities:
Bloomberg.com
C
Extend that thinking to its logical conclusion - no federal taxes whatsoever and perpetual budget deficits of 15% of GDP.
Angry Saver | 01.12.09 - 7:09 am | #
Oh but you've forgotten, the Laffer curve and all that. ::eyeroll::
Let me get this straight. McCain runs for president on a platform of keeping W. economic policies unchanged.
Zandi is key economic advisor to McCain Campaign.
Zandi sees te last 8 years as a lost decade.
Things could have been worse, McCain could have been elected.
Anak(Unrated) writes:
And Byz thanks. If you ever come to China, let me know. I'll be your humble translator and we'll go to the park to see the Wusetu in Beijing.
Thank you, this humble gentleman is grateful for your generous offer of hospitality.
Zandi sees te last 8 years as a lost decade.
Dirk | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 7:36 am | #
The key to understanding Zandi's statement: The last 8 years have been a helluva lot worse than a lost decade. They've pretty much dug a huge hole for the US, and the word "lost" is about as positive a spin as can be mustered.
I mean really: More than doubling the deficit, and all we get is "lost"?!
The Clusterf*ck Decade would be a superior title.
"Unfortunately, only a complete collapse of the U.S. is likely to make the socialists in this country realize their errors and even then I'm sure they'll blame the 3% of the free-market that is left for a "market failure."
Ha ha ha. Failing in marriage makes you automatically gay? (like Mr. Orlov said about American "socialism"). You haven't even seen real socialism at all (like in Cuba or in former Eastern Europe or more lite and more functioning version in the Nordics or Canada).
This weird experiment called US economy is corpocapitalism aka fasism-lite combined with born-again-jesus-freaks combined with "goverment is the problem except when giving out no-bid contracts to my business buddies"-republicans combined with militarism running amok combined with about thousand other really weird shit. Plus Dubya.
Dot com was paper wealth, real estate bubble was paper wealth with debt which was leverage
nogoa | 01.12.09 - 2:10 am | #
You've never heard of a margin account, I gather.
OT but nice:
Bloggers get NYPD press credentials:
After Police Relent, Bloggers Get Press Credentials - City Room Blog - NYTimes.com
"...the administration's ideological opposition to regulation and oversight that allowed the housing and credit bubbles to form."
Sorry, CR, but that's a glaring non-sequitur.
In India exporters may lay off 10Million in next three months.
From Asia Times online...
mock turtle said
funny isnt it, the party that always complained about how welfare queens and others fail to take personal responsibility now tries to blame everyone else for failures on their watch
hmmm, if bush had been working for the mafia and got their operations into such a clusterfk i doubt the godfathers would be nodding sympathetically that it was all the dems fault
since he hasn't been eviscerated/cement shoed perhaps it proves the mafia don't run USG
/snark off
Mark Zandi 2006 interview
Q: Can you summarize your outlook for the housing market and for the economy in general in 2006?
A: I think the economic outlook is good. The expansion will remain intact. Top-line GDP [gross domestic product] growth will be about 3 1/2 percent, roughly what we'll get ... in 2005. And job growth will be comparable with a couple-million-plus jobs created in 2006, which is on par with 2005. Broadly speaking, the economy should perform well.
Mark Zandi, chief economist, Moody's Economy.com | Mortgage Banking | Find Articles at BNET
Dot com was paper wealth, real estate bubble was paper wealth with debt which was leverage
nogoa | 01.12.09 - 2:10 am | #
You've never heard of a margin account, I gather.
Eric | 01.12.09 - 7:56 am | #
Margin acct, 2:1 leverage max, and relatively rare, most people dont leverage their equity accounts or certianly dont use max leverage.
Conservative 20% down mtg, 5:1 leverage. Rare recently, lots of 5% and 3% down mtgs ie 25+:1 leverage.
Margin acct, 2:1 leverage max, and relatively rare, most people dont leverage their equity accounts or certianly dont use max leverage.
Dirk | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 8:15 am | #
Day trading, 4:1. Commodities, even more.
trucking, rail and containers cliff diving
anything else in the way of freight moving stuff
maybe air and overnight
what about ups and fedex
what about ups and fedex
pooki | 01.12.09 - 8:17 am | #
Well DHL shut down, so they are dividing up that mkt share, but also think I recall at least one of them giving a profit arning not too long ago.
kiewi(Unrated) writes:
since he hasn't been eviscerated/cement shoed perhaps it proves the mafia don't run USG
No, it just proves they don't wish to run the USG as a going concern. Big difference between looting a state and running it responsibly.
or usps
The mafia is our bought and paid for US Goverment....Bush did'nt have the brains to do this clusterf33k alone..He did give China the first stimula by way of Walmart...He knew what he was doing...He did let Paulson pay off and coverup something on Wallstree we may never know what....
Move these bastards out of DC..Corrupt beltway leeches...Spread this power thru out the US...State to State with maybe a lottery on who goes where..What do we expect, same old same old leeches now for the past 20 years.
Damn I've got to go to work...My day is ruined just thinking of these clusterf##ks in backstalls calling the shots.
Obama Signals His Reluctance To Investigate Bush Programs - NY Times
Oh look, Obama is going to fail to sponsor truth and reconciliation inquiries into the Bush administration's crimes. Yay. Change that amounts to no change at all.
Change that amounts to no change at all.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 8:23 am | #
He's been elected. Pandering time is over.
One of the less understood concepts of governance is that it is not a good idea to execute/prosecute the outgoing/former executives.
Think about it. If we get mired in pursuit of righting the past we won't be able to move on. Who amongst you would want to serve should your neck (literally) be on the line? Think France and England as two examples.
But if you want to go after them, then have at it.
One-you won't achieve satisfaction.
Two-there will be no good outcomes.
After reading the first few comments I skipped down to the bottom so I could post this.
Bush makes a handy whipping boy. But, if you want to know what's wrong with this country and society, look in the mirror.
Link off CBR's link
OP-ED COLUMNIST; Eight Years of Madoffs - NY Times
"Not even a good old-fashioned sex scandal could get our outrage going again. Indeed, a juicy one erupted last year in the Interior Department, where the inspector general found that officials had used cocaine and marijuana, and had sexual relationships with oil and gas company representatives. Two officials tasked with marketing oil on behalf of American taxpayers got so blotto at a daytime golf event sponsored by Shell that they became too incapacitated to drive and had to be put up by the oil company."
The only good thing Bush did was destroy the Republican party... Maybe now we can clean up the mess and move on....
Oh look, Obama is going to fail to sponsor truth and reconciliation inquiries into the Bush administration's crimes. Yay. Change that amounts to no change at all.
This is to help you forget that Obama is keeping Gitmo open.
"President-elect Barack Obama warned Sunday -- on the seventh anniversary of the opening of the war-on-terrorism prison camp at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba -- that he likely would not make good on his campaign pledge to close it during his first 100 days in office."
Eric(Excellent) writes:
He's been elected. Pandering time is over.
Merlin: The future has taken root in the present.
Having been in business for 40 years, I must tell you, when rail and trucking is down, we(you and me) are way in deep doo doo.
It's alot easier to bring it down than start it up...Tarp money to keep rail and trucking going I would think needs to be looked at now.
Merlin: The future has taken root in the present.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 8:31 am | #
Did you know that Igrayne was the director's daughter? Must have made that conception scene fun to film.....
Volker the Viking(Excellent) writes:
One of the less understood concepts of governance is that it is not a good idea to execute/prosecute the outgoing/former executives.
Think about it. If we get mired in pursuit of righting the past we won't be able to move on. Who amongst you would want to serve should your neck (literally) be on the line?
I'll serve with my neck on the line. Why would I serve the Republic in any other fashion? Why don't I serve it now, and instead its service is populated with time-markers, thieves and knaves? if your policies are so wise -- and they have been pursued as if they were -- how did we come to this impasse?
It is politically unprofitable but necessary for continued operation of the state to rectify its operation when it has been compromised. Also, since so many key personalities in the Opposition were emired in the current morass of immorality and failure that calls itself the administration of this great nation, it's a good chance to toss all your enemies alive into a meat grinder to popular applause.
Blame-shifting and purges will prove quite handy in the trying time to come. Those who were eager to sacrifice the freedom of others and the future of the Republic to support their policies should in turn be sacrificed. As per the line of behavior they espoused. They had no problem with warrantless wiretapping, torture, nonjudicial detention, tarping billions to their well-connected friends, why would they begrudge the Republic a few show trials?
Sorry, second pp in post above is Volker too, made an italics tag error.
cbr noted
No, it just proves they don't wish to run the USG as a going concern. Big difference between looting a state and running it responsibly.
not with you there, organised crime is only possible in a organised responsibly run state, no?
looting is for pirates, organised crime has investments to worry about
Hey guys, dolt--you know who you are--an attempted email to you didn't work, hasn't been sent yet.
So if you wanna contact me try again.
cbr
on your respnse to volker i bow to your eloquence
Didn't I read here that organized crime is in doo doo, as demand for their services is down too?
Blame-shifting and purges will prove quite handy in the trying time to come.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 8:37 am | #
This is exactly why I thought Ford's pardon of Nixon was correct.
Dear Congress, FBI and Justice Department: Please don't spend your time and my tax dollars on this. There are many more pressing things that need your attention.
okay, you guys
reap the whirlwind
The only good thing Bush did was destroy the Republican party... Maybe now we can clean up the mess and move on....
Crewman | 01.12.09 - 8:30 am | #
Bush's admin has been a disaster but I am more afraid of where we are going than where we have been. Our system is corrupt and I have seen no evidence that we are trying to "change". I am betting before 4 years we there will be financial or political recriminations of negativity posted on the internet.
Eric(Excellent) writes:
This is exactly why I thought Ford's pardon of Nixon was correct.
And it brought you a resurgent Republican administration in 6 years, Regan worship, and this. Hurm.
I think we should have hung Nixon and his cronies and let the bids eat their eyes, and we wouldn't be where we're at today.
I suggest you consult some deeper thinkers such as historians and have a thoughtful conversation on the matter.
Back when I was a young 'un, the hub ran for Maryland House of Delegates on the Gov Agnew ticket. He was the relative good guy.
Didn't win. Sarbanes asked him to switch parties; refused.
What I say in the most minor of leagues is that the person who was willing to do anything to win, won. In Md. In that time and place.
Or, you could spend a whole lot of money, if you had it.
I think we should have hung Nixon and his cronies and let the bids eat their eyes, and we wouldn't be where we're at today.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 8:47 am | #
Sigh. See, I just don't eve see that happening. You might be able to get a high level staffer or two (like Libby). You're never going to actually get W or Cheney on trial. It's just not going to happen.
Since I believe it's "just not going to happen" (even though I wish it would), I really don't want any time or money wasted or trying to make it happen.
saw, not say
Dirk,
I wouldn't be surprised if FedEx volume was up 10% for holiday traffic in Massachusetts, mostly on the same vendors.
Odd.
Damn.... the Infotainment Channel's website (cnbc.com) has gone and shit the bed.
The reson for going after Bush and Co. in criminal trials is to restore the good name of the U.S. to the world, and to make sure that no future admin uses the Bush tenure as precident. The world had a greater need to look forward, not to the past, in 1946 than it does today, and there was little chance that Himmler and Georing were going to return to power, yet I think most people would agree it was a good idea to hold those Trials at Nurenberg
Volker the Viking(Excellent) writes:
I suggest you consult some deeper thinkers such as historians and have a thoughtful conversation on the matter.
I fell I have a pretty well-considered stance.
Even civil war and a generation of division over the matter, with millions dead, is a worthwhile investment, especially since we're already BK. Might as well undertake substantive reorganization.
I don't think it will take that but I would sign on even if it did. One of the critical things a king has to do is legitimate his reign. Following up on a historically corrupt administration, you really want to destroy swiftly and publicly the malfeasors of the previous kingship.
The kingdom has been brought to ruin. Unless we dispose of the bandits responsible, it'll merely serve as encouragement to the next band of ambitious brigands.
The reason people don't want to see this happen is because both parties are the same and beholden to the same interests, not in pursuit of the interests of good rule.
Dirk(Excellent) writes:
The reason for going after Bush and Co. in criminal trials is to restore the good name of the U.S. to the world, and to make sure that no future admin uses the Bush tenure as precident. The world had a greater need to look forward, not to the past, in 1946 than it does today, and there was little chance that Himmler and Georing were going to return to power, yet I think most people would agree it was a good idea to hold those Trials at Nurenberg
^^^
What he said. He's much nicer about it than me.
The reson for going after Bush and Co. in criminal trials is to restore the good name of the U.S. to the world, and to make sure that no future admin uses the Bush tenure as precident.
Dirk | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 8:51 am | #
If I thought there was any chance of seeing W or Cheney in the dock, facing a jury, I'd be all for it.
But IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN. Get over it, and move on with your life.
Eric(Excellent) writes:
But IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN.
Hurm.
I think that you answer from within your context, which I will call "the milieu of failing states" in tribute to ole Han Fei Tze. Within the current context of the modern S political milieu, you are 100% correct. Therein is the problem.
Not speaking for Dirk -- but I, at least, am answering from the broader context of governance in the abstract, over a multigenerational timeframe.
If you don't get from a place where punishing the responsible parties is unimaginable to a place where punishing those parties is routine and expected, you will get somewhere else instead, and you will like that place very little.
cbr is online and said
I think we should have hung Nixon and his cronies and let the birds eat their eyes, and we wouldn't be where we're at today.
where we're at today, prolly not new to the rest of ya
Charges laid over alleged prison drug ring | Stuff.co.nz
the point of Lord of the Rings was that evil was infecting the land but even hobbits could kick ass
"Bush makes a handy whipping boy. But, if you want to know what's wrong with this country and society, look in the mirror."
Middyfeek | 01.12.09 - 8:28 am | #--
I did. And I told the guy to give back the Tarp money. He replied that he didn't get any of the money...(I guess I'll have to look elsewhere for the answer...)
The Repukelicans worked so hard to destroy Clinton, many, many fruitless charges .. then Impeachment over lying about a blow job.
Bush has left this country in ruins, lies, torture, WAR, nationalizing banks, unbelieveable debt and the best excuse they can come up with for the problems is Barney Frank... give me a break... I think a war crimes trial would serve our country well..
I noticed him trying to re-write history on FOX Noise. "Waterboarding is not torture" Sad.. our country used to be better than that!
dryfly wrote:
Oh shit - how lost will the NEXT decade be because the 'past' was nothing compared to what's coming.
I'm quite certain that you and I voted for the W twice in a row. Instead of feeling guilty, you instead lay the blame on Obama. Why? Do you think it would have been better with McCain winning the presidency?
In a span of 8 years, our country turned from being vibrant into something that is completely cynical and corrupt. The Republican party sucked big time! And the sooner you and I realize that, the better our conscience would be...
Failure to prosecute Nixon's cronies allowed them to return to power in W's Administration. That's where Cheney came from in the first place.
If you don't get from a place where punishing the responsible parties is unimaginable to a place where punishing those parties is routine and expected, you will get somewhere else instead, and you will like that place very little.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 9:00 am | #
Doesn't matter what I like or dislike. Reality is where we are, not where we'd like to be. Maybe in a few generations, we could be closer to putting an ex-president in the dock. Right now, we're just not.
Failure to prosecute Nixon's cronies allowed them to return to power in W's Administration.
Markel | 01.12.09 - 9:04 am | #
Nope, the voters allowed them to return.
Eric(Excellent) writes:
Doesn't matter what I like or dislike. Reality is where we are, not where we'd like to be.
Merlin: You're not listening... well, your heart is not. Love is deaf as well as blind. That's it.
(That's not intended to sound harsh, future reader -- Merlin is almost bemused in the scene, even though he's just told Arthur of the destruction of the Round Table and been ignored)
89 ye
How does a mainstream economist explain Zimbabwe or the scary spikes in Rice prices last spring?
Blame it on lack of regulation? Or the free market?
...The "Lost Economic Decade"...
Well, I watched the other day that "PBS - Great Crash of 1929 (video)" (link is on Jesse's blog) and due to the eery (fundamental) parallels between then and now are more than ever convinced that america will go into a real depression. (regardless of the current spin, remember the hilariously upbeat predictions made a year ago which could now be verified, but no one likes to face these ludicrous statements of yesteryear).
So, when in 2020 or so, america will crawl out of it's depresion what will you say then?
The "Lost two Decades", The "Lost quarter Century" ?
1 currency soon yogi writes:
89 yen
That squeaky-crunchy sound you hear is Sony's capital structure reaching crush depth.
Werner(Excellent) writes:
The "Lost two Decades", The "Lost quarter Century" ?
It will be given a unique name like "The Troubles" or "The Three Kingdoms Era".
Werner writes:
...The "Lost Economic Decade"...
now are more than ever convinced that america will go into a real depression.
With out deficit spending we were in a depression last year.
FDIC FACES UP TO $10B WHACK ON INDYMAC LOANS - NYPOST.com
FDIC FACES UP TO $10B WHACK ON INDYMAC LOANS
BAC loss expected at 3.6billion!
yikes.
while citi is upchucking smith barney, BAC is chewing down Merill.
wait, vut C is claiming a 10B gainon sale!
Come on Ken, get w/the program.
THe wisdom of wall street never ceases.
Take it!
Now is a great time for Citi to write up and write down 10 $billion.
U.S. regulators press Citigroup to replace chairman - The New York Times
U.S. regulators press Citigroup to replace chairma
Good morning everyone. Thought I'd start the day off with a linky.
Here is a Bloomberg story on Bill Gross talking about TIPS as being incredibly cheap.
From the story,
"Barclays Wealth, which manages about $215 billion, estimates TIPS are pricing in 11 percent deflation, according to Kevin Lecocq, the firms London-based chief investment officer.
While we may get small deflation in 2009, he told Bloomberg Television last week. But to get an 11 percent drop is unreasonable.
11 percent deflation - which side of that trade do you want...
Crewman writes:
...Clinton,... then Impeachment over lying about a blow job...
You are absolutely wrong, and you know that !!
Clinton was impeached because of perjury ! Perjury!!
Don't disseminate lies!
FDIC FACES UP TO $10B WHACK ON INDYMAC LOANS
Am I getting this right? Does this mean the IndyMac failure's cost to the FDIC fund just doubled?
Govt. wants C to replace Wim Bischoff with Dick Parsons; nothing like replacing Charles Manson with Jim Jones.
Don't disseminate lies!
Werner | 01.12.09 - 9:24 am | #
Hopefully Alcoa's earnings won't be too bad, because you need some new tin foil.
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich,
"nothing like replacing Charles Manson with Jim Jones."
Jones was far more charasmatic and had a much larger following, and didn't rely on LSD to keep his followers.
I mean if you want to lead lambs to slaughter...who did a better job?
Nostrovia,
Eric writes:
...you need some new tin foil...
Look, that may be a significant difference between Europe and America:
In America, lies and even perjury are accepted; in Europe, they are despised!
FDIC - Monitoring the Use of Funding from Federal Financial Stability and Guaranty Programs (public pressure works some time but how long will the banks take to comply?)
State nonmember institutions should implement a process to monitor their use of capital injections, liquidity support and/or financing guarantees obtained through recent financial stability programs established by Department of the Treasury, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Federal Reserve. In particular, the monitoring processes should help to determine how participation in these federal programs has assisted institutions in supporting prudent lending and/or supporting efforts to work with existing borrowers to avoid unnecessary foreclosures. The FDIC encourages institutions to include a summary of this information in shareholder and public reports, annual reports and financial statements, as applicable.
FDIC: FIL-1-2009: Financial Stability and Guaranty Programs
If they slaughter themselves I'll sleep easier.
"The lamb will lie down with the lion.
But the lamb won't get much sleep."
W. Alle
Werner writes:
You are absolutely wrong, and you know that !!
Clinton was impeached because of perjury ! Perjury!!
He should have never been asked the question in the first place.
Then if it is perjury you want..
Let's ask the questions.."did you authorize torture Mr. Bush?"
"did you ship people out of the country to be tortured?"
"Did you know there were no WMD'S before you slaughtered thousands of people?"
"Did you authorize wire tapping of US ciitizens?"
Perjury you say!!! Ha
Even if you want to trace the 'roots' of the current situation back to other administrations, the absolute orgy of looting and bailouts of cronys that happened through 2008 bears the fingerprints of this administration and none other.
"One of the less understood concepts of governance is that it is not a good idea to execute/prosecute the outgoing/former executives."
Even if you believe this, it is no justification for taking the step of rewarding them for shortsightedness, incompetence and dishonesty.
aapl implosion watch series
90 is doom
"the total abdication of regulation of the markets by the bush administration (because the markets know best...invisible hand and all that shit)"
Being "in the business" from 1999 to 2006, I know full well the impact DEMs had on keeping all hands off Fannie and Freddie. It was their political cash register. If we had reeled them in sooner, perhaps we could have headed the credit bubble off a bit earlier.
To be engraved above the elevator at the GW Bush Presidential Library:
This suckers going dow
Crewman writes:
...Perjury you say!!! Ha...
Just look up the Congressional Records.
You will still find them on the internet.
Rant
Bush is talking about the HOmeland. WTF is the HOMELAND? It is our freaking country. Just say to protect the US. Why the Orwellian speak?
In the last year plus we've seen countless instances of CYA, and in the instant case this includes Mark Zandi. Your post does not include the part of the article that notes that Zandi was a McCain economic adviser. Neither you nor the reporter noted further than early on in this financial conflagration Zandi was a staunch apologist for Bush's disastrous laissez faire policies.
I'm quite certain that you and I voted for the W twice in a row.
Compassionate Conservative Bus | 01.12.09 - 9:04 am | #
I didn't vote for W - I split tickets (vote some D, some GOP, some Inde's) and will vote GOP sometimes. And there are GOPers I'd actively support w/ time, money and my vote but NONE of them qualify as a 'neocon'. FTR.
o fer cryin out loud you two.
if only tanta were here to regulate this nonsense.
Bush:
"I made stupid decisions and stuck to them".
Republicans Suck
unfortunantly
Democrats Suck
also
The moron just admitted stealing from the poor to give to the rich.
This thread reminds me of a fiddler, of a gladiator bout, of Rome burning.
Time to put on fur and leather of a barbarian and slip of out of the gates.
/geesh
Yeah, things are getting "better"
My local bank puts a hold of 11 business days any check, even local, business checks, where they can not "verify" the funds.
Verification means calling the bank and making them confirm that the account exists and has enough funds to cover the check. In lieu of that they will accept a faxed affidavit of funds by the business that wrote the check.
Banks don't trust Banks, why should we!
... the administration's ideological opposition to regulation and oversight that allowed the housing and credit bubbles to form.
Actually it was the regulators and overseers that promoted the credit bubble.
Nobody was less interested in stopping these bubbles than the people in DC.
As long as we think of lawmakers and regulations as magic cures we will only continue to obscure the underlying causes of the problems we currently have.
It seems that for the most part we are content to do exactly that.
So the problems will be repeated...
I guess if the goal is to justify the expansion of an agenda at any cost then the facts must be fitted to achieve that goal.
Republicans Suck
unfortunantly
Democrats Suck
also
alambka | 01.12.09 - 9:41 am | #
I can tolerate some of that - a result of an imperfect system - it's the ones that really bite we have to remove.
I used to truly relish partisan threads. But, in the last couple of years, I actually started to get tired of them. But, here's my 2 cents:
George W. Bush is a great reflection of how the majority of this country thinks and behaves under normal circumstances. Religious without theology. Ideological without principles. Unreflective. Intensely mediocre in intellect and let's be honest, America is not Lake Wobegon. His re-election tells us so many things about this country.
In the US, we get the government we deserve.
It seems that for the most part we are content to do exactly that.
ac | 01.12.09 - 9:45 am | #
Public to politicians: "Don't take my punch bowl away."
There certainly was some of that.
popeye
Do you still feel strongly about a rally?
S&P 885
While we may get small deflation in 2009, he told Bloomberg Television last week. But to get an 11 percent drop is unreasonable.
Anecdote: Saturday morning I replaced an aging automobile with something far newer, though used: small, Germanic rocket, a 2006 with only 5500 mi. on it. The current Black Book valuation was $42K, purchase price was $24K.
Rather more than 11%. Sorry, Lecocq.
Do you still feel strongly about a rally?
stockdog42 | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 9:48 am | #
I'm hoping my puts rally!
"Public to politicians: "Don't take my punch bowl away."
There certainly was some of that."
This is true. People who overpaid for houses and overextended into mortgages chose to do so.
What's laughable is the idea that the sort of "cataclysmic change" that Obama allegedly represents, could be accomplished as easily and bloodlessly as voting in a "change" candidate who faced very little resistance from the current social and financial establishment.
In about 2 years this will begin to dawn on the general population, if not before.
In the US, we get the government we deserve.
Mr. Sparkle | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 9:46 am | #
And we still do today. Nothing really changes all that much - just the names and faces.
Solution?
Government issues credit cards to half the population. Government moves the other half in to monitor their spending. Charges all expenses to the first half's cards. Switches roles every four years.
So simple even a politician can understand it.
The current Black Book valuation was $42K, purchase price was $24K.
Dyslexic salesperson?
I'm hoping my puts rally!
Eric | 01.12.09 - 9:49 am | #
Got hankies just in case?
Bush has twice just now mentioned Africa and several individual European and Asian countries seriatum. In his mind Africa is a country.
That's all, folks.
Sorry. Germanic Rocketholder was me.
wally - LOL!
This is true. People who overpaid for houses and overextended into mortgages chose to do so.
wally | 01.12.09 - 9:49 am | #
Hell - they got into BIDDING WARS to do so.
Re: In his mind Africa is a country.
Why not? In his mind, he was a good President.
Bush legacy years designated as the era of BANKS GONE WILD
No doubt Bush and company did it all alone. Not The All American Suckers (ASS) who loved their faux status of success, goated on by many so called experts. No self examination, herd mentality, ignore basic math. We now enter a third administration of no discipline but a baby sitter government. Consumer economy can not survive in the long run and here we are. The big problem was universal greed on all levels. My corn Flakes aren't crunchy today, Dam GWB! Next week I will Blame OB for everything!
rps(Unrated) writes:
Bush legacy years designated as the era of BANKS GONE WILD
Watch these firms show all their assets as they bare their balance sheets for the cameras! Too structured for television! These capital structures are multi-tranched and ready for investment!
Public to politicians: "Don't take my punch bowl away."
There certainly was some of that.
dryfly
I was screaming about the housing bubble back in 2005 before I ever came here.
And for the most part I felt completely alone, except for maybe the housingbubble blog.
My concerns certainly weren't being voiced by the regulators and lawmakers in Washington, in fact it seemed to be quite the opposite: The housing bubble was evidence of how successful their policies were.
IMO it is dishonest and dangerous to suggest that having more of the types of individuals that populated the congress and the Federal Reserve over the past several years are somehow the solution to the problem.
The facts simply do not support it, even if the ideology behind the government's current agenda does.
Don't know if this was posted above or elsewhere but looks like Ford changes their mind, thinking about asking for their pony now... somehow I'm not surprised.
"The reality is that they are rather similar, though the republicans have more hypocrites and the democrats are more corrupt." - Lucifer
......I NEVER figured I might agree with you - but you are dead on here.
"...i really wonder if he [Ron Paul] could have secured the nomination had the events of the past year occurred a year earlier." - bgates
"Bush can go back to what he is good at. Drinking!"........I wouldn't wish that fate on any man.
.....both parties' politicians are guilty of dereliction of duty, there is no saving ourselves from the results of our ignorance, and as is currently being undertaken in parts of Washington DC, it's time to save yourself.
"goated on"?
OK, having now watched teh last ten minutes or so of Bush live..... I don't think we can prosecute him, because the diminished mental capacity defense is a lock.
Jeez, I thought he was going to foam at the mouth during the "REMEMBER WHAT IT WAS LIKE HERE AFTER 9/11" rant.
Who has the facts that banks didn't make any profit?
The business I run 100% mine..LLC..it's financial regulated make's a profit...
Now I could steal by paying myself and any employee's hugh bonus's that could take it under..Perfectly legal..
Would this make sence to anyone with any though other than greed.
If I was a pig farmer, paid myself and all the help in pigs each week, and come bonus day gave myself more pigs than I had in inventory...It's just pig math.
......... . . and the downward spiral repeats itself until the productive sectors of the economy collapse under the collective weight of taxes and other burdens imposed in the name of fairness, equality and do-goodism.
"We don't need to make a movie out of the book," [Atlas Shrugged] Mr. Kelley jokes. "We are living it right now."
"I had a great team and we had fun"
"goated on"?
I remember when American savings rate went negative and the so called expert economist claimed Americans had more real wealth then even in their homes. There was no need for personal savings. Now the home equity is gone and no money in the savings. Resulting multiplied disaster.
"the economy was caught up in a storm while he was president, but it wasn't his fault."
Kinda like Katrina?
Oh, goaded. Gotcha.
The punchbowl will be moved from the red room to the blue room.
Obama's advisor Rahm is planning on adding a gravy boat to ladle over the carved carcass; the USA. A lease here of highways/tollroads/bridges, a lease there of public institutions......all to foreign ownership. The Japanese car industry already owns the Southern states.
Born In American and schooled here but English is a foreign language to me. Sorry
Jas has a cousin in trouble. Can we pass a hat (or tip jar) and send him a few $$?
Deutsche Bank Trading Losses Reveal Industry Setback (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
"Oh, goaded. Gotcha."
Really? I thought goated on was much better.
The solution being a chicken in every pot.
e-i-e-i-o
popeye
they're taking your money.. bail!
Moe:
'goated on' is a great phrase, though for a different meaning than you intend. It would be a great way to express victimhood: "I was goated on".
I love it.
We are to believe an economist who, on the financial shock, says it "seamingly came out of nowhere"?
Nowhere? Maybe it was Zandi who has been lost for decades.
YouTube - Mark Zandi on the Subprime Financial Shock
It is intellectually dishonest perspectives like this that allow the single party Democrat/Republican structure to continue.
We will need more Squirrel recipes, How about Squirrel Susi, On a stick? Chicken will be the steak!
Let's not forget that Billy-playboy-Clinton opened up trade with China, promising a market in China for US-made electronics. Yeah, right. 10 years later, China is shooting satellites out of orbit, and directing lasers at US spy satellites.
Billy didn't take out Bin Laden because the US government knew what he was planning all along. The towers were strewn with thermite and explosives, which is obvious when you look closely at the videos. What will the US govt do next? Nuke a city and blame it on Iran? Unleash the plague and blame it on Iran? The US govt has been stockpiling plastic coffins all over the US. Millions of them, and large enough to hold several bodies each. Look at the evidence.
Byz Ruins--
"Too structured for Television!!"
LMAO
Bruce writes:
Jas has a cousin in trouble. Can we pass a hat (or tip jar) and send him a few $$?
No bailouts for born and bred dopes!!
What does capitalism look and act like in a de facto plutocracy / kleptocracy ?
You've just seen it for last 8 yrs.
Step one is acknowledgment.
I like, "I got goated on by that Nobel winning econodope."
Learning is still fun!
If any of you really want to see Bush in the dock,wait a year or two and pay for his two week vacation at the Hague...everyone likes free stuff no matter the price.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins generally I respect what you have to say but that comment on the Nixon Admin. shows an incredible lack of knowledge of American political history...
HOG is getting goated on today.
Obama's stimulus will be in stages and won't be sent as a check. It will arrive as credit cards. First cc with a Chinese logo. 2nd Japanese, 3rd Germany. All products purchased via CC's must be made in China, Japan and Germany.
This will prevent americans from saving the stimulus or paying existing bills. Pretty clever.
IMO it is dishonest and dangerous to suggest that having more of the types of individuals that populated the congress and the Federal Reserve over the past several years are somehow the solution to the problem.
ac | 01.12.09 - 9:56 am | #
The only way we see 'real change' is if we insist on it - in the polling booth and if that doesn't deliver then take it to the street. My guess is we'll see more of both if this recession deepens and drags on. Probably not this summer but certainly by next summer UNLESS there is real hope things are improving.
The two words that define President Bush for me is "protectionism" and "global economy".
And I was a Goldwater Republican..
The party left me.
The two words that define President Bush for me is "misunderestimate" and "Brownie's doing a heckuva job".
Here's the troubling thing. If we aren't going to punish those that perpetuated ponzi finance in America over the past 10 years, we need to radically alter what is taught in our schools.
To prepare the next generation to take care of themselves, they will need extensive training in lying, distorting, spinning, half truths, plausible deny-ability, scams, swindles, etc.
Reading, writing & mathametics just don't cut it anymore.
Contrast this with a man who knew something about taking responsibility - JFK. He accepted the blame for the Bay of Pigs fiasco even though the whole operation had been planned under Eisenhower.
\t yogurt!!!!
yes, and right after it was the night of the long knives in the CIA! betcha didn't know that Joe Kennedy pal John 'Mr Establishment' McCloy tipped off JFK about the secret training program in Florida and during the 2nd debate painted Nixon into the 'dove' corner where Nixon said problems with Cuba should be handled diplomatically by the OAS or UN... and JFK talked about an invasion...
yoghurt - do your homework... ps: nice that Jack pulled the air cover at the last minute
Duke of CT: Little could surprise me here, however true the story is.
Governing has been a sordid business.
I won't say must be this way, but still, doesn't this point out the futility of investing too much hope in any leader-- and to invest the hope instead into systems, monitored by an active citizenry, that render leadership relatively impotent?
Anyone who believed a word out of Nixon's mouth would lose their shirt in any poker room in the country.
Yogi, I guess that's how he cleaned up in the navy!
Duke, sorry for the mis-spelling. Thinking Wade Giles for some reason.
While much attention is given to New Orleans as the tipping point for Bushs image in the United States, two earlier events spoke volumes to me of Bushs true character. Yes, the flood in New Orleans in late August 2005 was what got everyones attention regarding Bushs failure as both a leader and a compassionate person. But I remember pre-9-11, when Bush chose to snub the Vermont Republican Senator by not inviting Mr. Jeffords to the White House for a Teacher of the Year ceremony that honored a Vermont high school teacher. A small detail, but so telling (and so bush league (pardon the pun.))
The other event that showed me how out of touch our President was with world events, and his apparent lack of empathy, was the December 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake that killed an estimated 225,000 and caused widespread damage across much of southern Asia. Even given the early signs of the enormity of the catastrophe, Bushs initial pledge for assistance was for $15 million. Two days later this was bumped up to a huge (sarcasm) $35 million. This compares to Denmark who gave $74 million or Austria who gave $65 million. Only after the U.N. criticized the contributions of rich nations as "stingy" did Bush authorize $350 million on December 31, 2004 with more to follow (ultimately providing $950 million in aid). Republican spinmeisters try to paint Bush as a caring, decent fellow, but actions speak a lot louder than words.
If Ike had known what Tricky Dick was planning for Cuba he would have been less vague in his warning message.
Very good posts up-thread by Mock Turtle that explain Bush's culpability and show that there were critics along the way who were discounted, disparaged, or removed.
Several additional points on top of what has been said by many:
1) Because Bush is culpable does not mean that no one else is to blame - Clinton enabled deregulation and the CDS nightmare, Bush was elected twice, we did not impeach him, Greenspan was significant, consumers were stupid, banksters and brokers were rapacious. Bush had a primary role.
2) Deregulation and corruption are not the same thing. Bush set records in both.
3) The gigantic Bush structural deficit is a grave problem not in itself, but in relation to what it was used to accomplish: re-election by giving people something for nothing, making the rich super rich, and the disaster of the Iraq war. A structural deficit can be necessary and it can be the best thing to do, as in the case of the New Deal and WWII. The Bush deficit had no such justification.
Angry Saver writes:
To prepare the next generation to take care of themselves, they will need extensive training in lying, distorting, spinning, half truths, plausible deny-ability, scams, swindles, etc.
Angry Saver | 01.12.09 - 10:23 am | #
these soft skills can be taught to an extent but without the natural talent and psychological disposition of near or actual sociopathy/psychopathy you can't be truly competitive at it, even if you're an expert. it's not just a job, you have to have a passion for it.
If you look at Bush's decisions through the prism of 'what will help my friends and supporters make money?' - his policies become logical.
Try it. It works in every policy area from environmental protection, foreign affairs, immigration, etc. He was very predictable.
I had to read down to average joe to find any non BDS posting on this issue.
For CR to blame the Bush admin for this problem is laughable. For others to follow suit with a string of insults/ad hominem attacks would be predictable.
There are structural problems in the US Government that were brought about by FDR and which have matastisized over the years to produce this current credit crisis. The sooner you all drop the Republican/Democrat or Conservative/Progressive vibe and start to understand the core problems, the sooner we'll be able to make the changes necessary to avoid the next 'bubble'.
Which is shaping up to be in 2011 or 2012 when the value of the Dollar drops to zero. Because of our POTUS elects desire for 'stimulus'.
I mean, you can't make this shit up....
Totally agree.
The Bush administration should have raised taxes back in 2001 and should have tightened regulations so bankers couldn't make loans.
This nonsense of a free market is has been a pipe dream for too long. We have a government controlled economy and this Bush administration tried to pull us away from that.
Now we see the results when the government isn't steering the economy.
For five or six years, Bush and his administration (and their friends in the media) were touting the success of the Bush economic policies, especially those tax cuts. I therefore have no qualms about laying the blame for the current mess at their feet.
FFDIC writes:
SB...3567166677.html
WSJ Error Page - WSJ.com
WSJ Opinion:
'Atlas Shrugged': From Fiction to Fact in 52 Years
FFDIC | 01.12.09 - 1:37 am | #
Does the WSJ editorial board have any cred left? None with me... they've been nothing but bubble cheerleaders, deregulators in the face of graft, and simple hacks for the last 6 years...
WSJ has been deflated, permanently.
Dave of SV writes:
...Only after the U.N. criticized the contributions of rich nations as "stingy" did Bush authorize $350 million on December 31, 2004 with more to follow (ultimately providing $950 million in aid). Republican spinmeisters try to paint Bush as a caring, decent fellow, but actions speak a lot louder than words.
Another one of Bush's faults.
He was constantly giving our money away. Stories like this, and the $50 billion he gave away for fighting AIDS in Africa(!) are more examples of how out of touch this man was.
How dare he give our money away like this when we need it here?
Just incredible lack of caring about the people that elected him.
CBR, I'll cast my lot with you. Hang em high!
Trader Walt,
The fact that you didn't get any TARP money hardly puts you in the clear. Everyone who can, however they can, is involved in an assault on the government's pocketbook.
THAT'S the problem. If you are not in some way guilty of this, you are in a very small minority.
Hollering Bush, Cheney, Halliburton is just childish twaddle. The problem, by my reckoning, dates to at least Lyndon Johnson. Others might go as far back as Roosevelt.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 8:37 am | #
You are an exceptional intellect and worth the time I spend on this blog. Thank you.
Byzantine_Ruins - props for your "BANKS GONE WILD" comments.
for those who thing the dot com had nothing to do with the real estate bubble are mistaken. a dot com crash followd the dot com bubble, while bush entered the presidency with a surplus he also entered with a recessionary economy, followed by 911; in view of this greenspan lowered rates and the gov't pumped money into housing. bush is to blame, so are the rest of the clowns. the fact that barney frank is still on the finance committee and even in gov't is a loud statement on the idiocy everywhere in gov't.
also, the harping on regulation is by those usually on the left side of the aisle, and while true does not account for hte massive credit expansion. regulations are required because the system is corrupted to place incentive in the wrong place, so regulations are "needed" to make up for incentives. and of course nothing is said of the regulations that contributed to this.
The last ten years has gone nowhere in sum because we had to pay for the unsustainable growth of the 90's that we borrowed from the future. The 90's was a bubble economy driven by overinvestmen in tech firms and their over valued stock prices. All of this was allowed to happen because of loose monetary policy with the money agragates growing at double digit year over year rates. When that bubble popped, instead of letting a correction to occur, fed policy became way to easy again and we kicked it down the road allowing for the housing bubble. We now must have a correction but we are doing it once again. As painful as it may be, we are now only trying to reinflate assets that have no business being as pricy as they are. Though I am by no means a fan of Bush, all of the Bush bashing over our eocnomy is making him a scapegoat by those who make the logical fallisy of confusing correlation and causation. If any one person deserves blame it's Greenspan, for allowing the bubble in the 90's and again in the housing bubble. Had Kerry won in 2004, all of this mess would have happened exactly the same and in his lap. Though Greenspan's mistakes are more of a symptom of the difficulty of central government planning of the eocnomy and less to do with the man himself. Until we start realizing that creating bubbles by poor manipulation of interest rates has more effect on the eocnomy then who holds the White House, then we are doomed to continue this cycle.
Well said Jed
So what was Zandi saying for the last 10 years? How about the last 5? In general were Moody's just as wrong as the rest of the rating agencies?
Perhaps they meant the way Clinton left things...
Liberal media.
Obama hasn't even taken office and they're already blaming Bush, yet no one talks about Clinton and his failures on national security, regulation of CDOs, subprime lending, and so on...
jed and EJB, well said.
There is some sanity here. There are definitely few students of history at Calculated Risk, to include CR.
Reality check, please stop. You're only embarrassing yourself. The people on this blog are not Republic party/Limpbaugh drones.
"So what was Zandi saying for the last 10 years? How about the last 5? In general were Moody's just as wrong as the rest of the rating agencies?"
The rating agencies are co-conspirators in the mortgage/real estate bubble as are ACORN and financial services commitee heads DEM or REPUB.
Byzantine_Ruins - props for your "BANKS GONE WILD" comments.
Shnaps
"Banks Gone Wild" origination is mine. Just saying..... please use freely
"His re-election tells us so many things about this country."
That the Democrats had George W. Bush to run against and for some reason they thought the way to the promised land was John Kerry?
The Democrats were the ones dead set against banking reform, ironically, and shot down changes to the CRA. The Republicans tried to reform things in 2005. Though Bush certainly could have done more to help them.
As long as we're spewing out theorticals and what ifs, I think it's fair to say that if Gore and the Democrats had been in power the last 8 years there would have been a lot more focus on alternative energy, on forcing the U.S. auto companies to compete against the Toyotas of the world.
Secondly, there would not have been an Iraq War. Plain and Simple. That shit was dreamed up by the neocons. It was 1) a huge waste of resources, lives, and money. 2) A huge distraction from economic issues. And 3) It ruined our standing in the globe.
I do agree with some who've said that that the Bush era actually accelerated the necessary end to an old paradigm. So in that was it was good.
Also, I'm not sure that Bush would characterize his economic decisions as mistakes. He gave lots of tax breaks to lots of his very rich supporters, so mission accomplished there.
"....[WSJ] they've been nothing but bubble cheerleaders, deregulators in the face of graft, and simple hacks for the last 6 years..."
What does that statement have to do with the Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged quote? You might want to try reading it again. (The book, not the press clipping)
"Secondly, there would not have been an Iraq War. Plain and Simple."
No, "plain and simple" is; you don't know if there would have been an Iraq war. The abilities of crystal balls has been debunked.
average Joe | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 1:37 am | #
you are spot on. On would think Bush and Republicans came to power in a coup. The country voted for the moron twice!! I would have hoped that Obama would have had the courage to tell the country the truth- he hasn't. He needed to tell folks that for too long we thought we could have it all. We spent too much and now the time has come to pay the piper.
Ryan W. writes:
The Democrats were the ones dead set against banking reform, ironically, and shot down changes to the CRA. The Republicans tried to reform things in 2005. Though Bush certainly could have done more to help them.
Ryan W. | 01.12.09 - 3:10 pm | #
give me a break- the CRA wasn't why the IB were doing all the deals. The CRA only applies to the banks and their direct loans are not where the problem is. You had a bunch of morons who thought they had discovered the modern day version of the philosopher's stone- converting crappy loans into gold via financial engineering.
kstills | 01.12.09 - 11:06 am | #
You are right in your broad point but then shoot yourself in the foot by blaming FDR.
We have a free market system- the animal spirits will produce growth but they will also produce busts. I would say the problem is that we forgot that recessions are how a free market system purges its excesses. When the Fed moved in a direction of preventing recessions the die was cast. I find the Yellowstone fire in the 90's a particularly useful analogy. The fire service had a policy of suppressing fires which they did successfully until the big one. I think they have realized that allowing small fires is a good way to prevent a big one and has the added benefit of creating a healthy eco-system.
The Democrats were the ones dead set against banking reform, ironically, and shot down changes to the CRA. The Republicans tried to reform things in 2005. Though Bush certainly could have done more to help them.
Ryan W. | 01.12.09 - 3:10 pm | #
The CRA had next to nothing to do with the current problems, at most 1% of the total blame.