Well, this time Dodd wants more regulation before the funds are released. I heard him say so this morning, so all problems solved. This time those sneaky banks won't dupe our vigilant leadership, that is sincerely safeguarding our interests.
Continuity We Can Believe In
"Consider Obamas reaction when George Stephanopoulos played a clip of Dick Cheney counseling Obama not to implement his campaign rhetoric until hes fully briefed on the details of the Bush administrations counterterrorism policy.
I think that was pretty good advice, which is I should know whats going on before we make judgments and that we shouldnt be making judgments on the basis of incomplete information or campaign rhetoric. So Ive got no quibble with that particular quote, said Obama. Usually, presidents pretend their campaign positions are more than campaign rhetoric. Not Obama."
Bush said he would ask if Obama wanted. Playing Mr. Nice Guy so he won't get sent to Paraguay. 1 currency soon [yogi] | 01.12.09 - 11:35 am | #
I thought Bush had a rather nice ranch waiting for him in Paraguay. He likes ranchs.
If Obama is really asking for more TARP money, he'd better be willing to put some controls on it. Or he'll have the shortest honeymoon of any modern American president -- a week or less.
Once the TARP funds are gone (and they will be soon) there is going to be some real soul-searching in Congress. The question "where did the money go?" will have to be answered.
soul-searching? quite an assumption \t guest | \t \t \t \t01.12.09 - 11:42 am | # guest | 01.12.09 - 11:42 am | # LOL. Pretty good; why not use a real screen name so we can identify you next time out.
Anonymous
If you've been watching CNBC at all today you'd know the bottom is already in.
ahhh yes - The CNBC bottomless bottom - what's Kudlow doing on daytime TV - looks like a demotion to me -- I digress but Maria just said something about swimming naked to Paulson -- what could she have meant?
Oil prices falling again--- Peak Oil in only one aspect in a cluster-screw of unmanageable complexity. The problem isn't only that oil production is declining. It is also that our global society is inextricably linked to it, including all our other energy production. It is that the global population is in overshoot. It's about the mounting repercussions of overpopulation, climate change, and species extinction which we would have solved through increased energy expenditure.
Peak Oil is still as relevant as it ever was. Which is to say, one important piece of the puzzle of the collapsing system.
--710
You need to think about how bad it would have been if we didn't TARP
If TARP had been a plan to give money to the healthy banks and credit unions who did not create this mess, then credit would be flowing and the idiots would be out on the arses. So, as far as i'm concerned TARP did not improve anything except to bail out the guilty with massive annual bonuses which the next generation of middle class gets to pay off, with interest. Lose-Lose.
dryfly, I've just got a bad feeling about citi, we discussed it some here Friday but nothing really came of it..Don't they have over a Trillion in CDS exposure?
The point was that it passed based on fear-mongering. You can always say something would be worse if you don't do what the say as long as you do what they say. You'll never find out if the alternative is true. I would have put a [/sarcasm] next to my comment except that I think doing so ruins the sarcasm.
The last curtain call bow that the world as we know it, is at an end; McDonalds gets in line at the TARP drive-thru window. Until then circuses and bread for the mobs.
dryfly, I've just got a bad feeling about citi, we discussed it some here Friday but nothing really came of it..Don't they have over a Trillion in CDS exposure? Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 11:57 am | #
No idea but it is probably a large exposure... then there are the counterparties... who are they? It doesn't look good no matter what direction you look at it from.
My depression MOM, has told me, that in Iowa, Hotel owners/managers would not rent to bankers apartments above the 2nd floor, because they were jumping out of the windows...
Just what she remembered and it has been a long time ago and not sure the percentage doing so...
For what its worth...
Anonymous | 01.12.09 - 11:53 am | #
Citi is probably structurally insolvent if some serious "Change" doesn't materialize.
It's as plain as day to see that this free-bleeding economy is indeed bottoming, it's just that it will be doing it for considerably longer than most are willing to entertain.
We were warned about this once...
"No generation has a right to contract debts greater than can be paid off during the course of its own existence." ~George Washington
"would not rent to bankers apartments above the 2nd floor, because they were jumping out of the windows..."
At least in those days the bankers had a modicum of decency and did the honorable thing----jumping. Nowadays, they get in line at the fed for more punch.
In the end accounting sure. 30 years from not they might break a profit. Oh, you mean counting fees and inflation, no. \t Brontide Good point. This is how I saw it, since accounting is flexible, as is the definition of profit.
"Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide." ~John Adams
Hmm thanks peasant for the link. It appears they have 38 trillion in exposure? Lovely...Not to be outdone by JP with 90 trillion...These numbers seriously can't be correct, are they?
Didn't even come close to telling the story. They just focused on the actual purchases...not the BS that is allowed to occur at each front month roll-over. That's the real story with the Fed providing the cash to do it with as secondary.
But most wouldn't even begin to understand it if they had.
Is it just me or does anyone else find it weird that Bush is just marking time until he can get out of town? Otherwise, if the economy is in such disrepair that Obama must act the minute he is in office, why doesn't Bush do something now instead of waiting for next week?
Oh wait. Bush so totally fouled up the economy with all his previous mistakes, the adults in the room have taken away his toys and he is not allowed to do anything at all.
Well, I suppose not digging a deeper hole is the first good thing BushCo has done the entire 8 years.
It was great at the press conference when they asked Bush about the $350 billion that had been spent so far. He was very eager to let everyone know that it was much more than $350 billion. Something like, "you gotta remember the AIG money, citi...""
That press conference was the perfect ending. At one point he was saying, "i'm not gonna whine about it like...oh...why did this happen on my watch...no self pity from me...that is pathetic"
Like Palin, he is funnier than the people who imitate him, but for different reasons.
Didn't even come close to telling the story. They just focused on the actual purchases...not the BS that is allowed to occur at each front month roll-over. That's the real story with the Fed providing the cash to do it with as secondary.
But most wouldn't even begin to understand it if they had.
Ciao
MS
Yeah, I always assume 60 minutes just skims the surface of the actual story.
It does bring the problem to the attention of j6p tthough.
If TARP had been a plan to give money to the healthy banks and credit unions who did not create this mess, then credit would be flowing and the idiots would be out on the arses.
Unless there's a secondary market, no DI is going to be making long-term fixed rates loans unless they absolutely have to. Does anyone credibly think that interest rates are going to remain this low in 5-10 years? It'll basically be the same crap in the 1970s-1980s. You're paying depositors 8% and collecting mortgages paying 5%; yes, that will work...
km4, my belief has always been that the form of government matters less than mechanisms to keep corruption in check. Some org systems naturally make it harder to put and keep these mechanisms in place. Our Democracy can survive if it focusses on transparency and social justice above all else. The MSM embracing the extremist noise machines have made that increasingly difficult the last few decades. I have hopes that community involvement through the internet will counteract that. It's giving it a good go already.
(and by the by, no one who knows me in the wet-world would ever call me an optimist.)
the risk on that chart is OBS derivative exposure, which was never defined well. CDS derivative exposure is probably a subset of that, and may be 1 trillion, which would make credit default swaps the tip of some kind of large frozen floating thing.
Peasant Darkness Americans don't seem to know much about history and agree community involvement through the internet is best hope to keep semblance of democracy alive
"America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves." ~Abraham Lincol
"These numbers seriously can't be correct, are they?"
No, they are from August. They can only be larger.
One writer thought JPM's exposure netted out at only 1% or less. ($900 Billion) But that was qualified by 'if no other extreme circumstances' (my paraphrase) like failing counterparties.
Thanks Peasant, I knew that was total exposure. Someone the other day said their CDS exposure was around 1 Trillion so your estimate seems pretty reasonable.
"Hundreds of years from now, it will not matter what my bank account was, the sort of house I lived in, or the kind of car I drove... But the world may be different because I did something so bafflingly crazy that my ruins become a tourist attraction. "
"He was very eager to let everyone know that it was much more than $350 billion. Something like, "you gotta remember the AIG money, citi..."
That's the thing about GWB, he'll tell you he's screwing you and remind you in case you forgot. Remember GWB's Social Security "IOU's" files cabinet comment and "Heckuva' job Brownie interpreted as what a royal f-up dipshipt. Good ole' boy humor.
We will gradually start to come back in the second half, Ford Chief Executive Officer Alan Mulally said today in a Bloomberg Television interview from the Detroit auto show.
Will Obama as his first official act as POTUS award GWB with the "Medal of Freedom"? That was always a sure-fire sign during GWB's administration that the honoree was a f-up;)
km4, I'm mixed on the history thing. Have been since my first summer in Netherlands when after doing copious research into that country to avoid being the borish american I discovered that a) people who think they know their history don't, they actually know myths, which may actually be more dangerous than a blank slate, and b) they were still really pissed at the germans for something that happened in the 1400s.
The u.s. has this interesting policy of re-embracing our enemy's 30 years on. exactly because we forget. (vietnam, for example, right one schedule) I'm not sure that's a bad thing.
The u.s. makes stupid policy because someone gains power from it, not because they don't remember. By focussing on forgetfulness as the key problem, the right can just haul out "elitist educated" labels to defeat it. For example, the s&l debacle is within living memory. You can't blame our current crisis on lack of historical memory, it's just cronyism.
The TARP is the biggest swindle in history. During Sweden's banking crisis in 1990, all bank equity was wiped out, however, bondholders were protected. Life in Sweden continued.
The American taxpayer was forced to guarantee the equity values and dividends of wealthy bankers.
A total sham. Paulson bailed out wall street and sold out main street.
Madoff is walking around because "they" (politicians, "charitable foundations", etc..) are hoping someone bumps him off before he spills the beans. Until then file burnings, hard drive "cleanings"......
Americans look at the wealthy among them with the rosy lenses of the American Myth. The American Myth is alive in Atlas Shrugged - that competent, hard working, gifted individuals come to be fabulously wealthy. That there is upward mobility and its realization is won through merit and hard work. This myth keeps the rich safe.
When people start looking at the rich as they do in countries like South America -- that they hold their wealth not through merit but through force, greed, corruption, and thievery, then we'll start seeing some idiots wake up. Then we'll start eating the rich.
Drop in Machine Tool Consumption Reflects Manufacturing Slowdown
November U.S. machine tool consumption totaled $185.57 million, according to AMTDA, the American Machine Tool Distributors' Association, and AMT - The Association For Manufacturing Technology.
This total, as reported by companies participating in the USMTC program, was down 34.7% from October and down 51.4% from the total of $381.76 million reported for November 2007.
With a year-to-date total of $4 billion, 2008 is up 2.8% compared with 2007.
"The November numbers demonstrate the much publicized slowdown in manufacturing," said Peter Borden, AMTDA President. "After three years of averaging over 2,000 units per month, unit consumption fell back to a level that we have not seen since Jan. 2004 and Jan. 2005. We are not optimistic about the numbers improving quickly unless the new administration can create some confidence in the marketplace for all sectors of the U.S. economy."
The United States Manufacturing Technology Consumption (USMTC) report, jointly compiled by the two trade associations representing the production and distribution of manufacturing technology, provides regional and national U.S. consumption data of domestic and imported machine tools and related equipment.
U.S. manufacturing technology consumption is also reported on a regional basis for five geographic breakdowns of the United States.
Northeast Region
November manufacturing technology consumption in the Northeast Region totaled $33.91 million, 19.9% less than October's $42.31 million, and down 43.0% when compared with the total for November a year ago. The $585.00 million year-to-date total is down 3.5% when compared with 2007 at the same time.
Southern Region
Manufacturing technology consumption in the Southern Region in November stood at $27.74 million, down 4.5% when compared with October's $29.06 million and 45.1% less than the total for November a year ago. The $598.67 million year-to-date total is 19.8% higher than the comparable figure for 2007.
Midwest Region
Midwest Region manufacturing technology consumption in November totaled $65.27 million, 32.3% less than the $96.44 million tallied in October and down 45.2% when compared with last November. At $1,352.61 million, the 2008 year-to-date total is 6.0% above the comparable figure a year ago.
Central Region
At $43.78 million, November manufacturing technology consumption in the Central Region was 45.2% below the October total of $79.95 million and 51.8% less than in November 2007. With a year-to-date total of $997.77 million, 2008 is up 0.4% when compared with 2007 at the same time.
Western Region
Western Region manufacturing technology consumption totaled $14.87 million in November, down 59.3% when compared with October's $36.50 million, and down 75.9% when compared with November 2007. At $470.26 million, the 2008 year-to-date total is 9.3% less than the comparable figure for 2007.
Hell, I've just sent e-mails to both my Senator's and my PSC over my frigging telephone carrier where my business is located.
A telephone Company in bombed fuc## egypt has exclusive carrier rights in this town and parts of the county.
They have helt me hostage long enought.$79.55 for business high speed.
Tarp me please and the rest of US thats trying to make a living(working).
I see an America where the rich can stand proud! A land where every American knows his place, and embraces it. A land where the right to chase a delusion is as important as my right to create them. I know, together, we can reap what others had sown.
May 16, 1801 Address, Philadelphia. John J. Richardson III
I find the Obama bashing a bit strange. The guy was elected largely as an antidote (antidope?) to the Bush foreign policy legacy. The economic world we see before us is far different than the one in which the campaign was conducted.
The guy is a Harvard law guy - an establishment darling. I know many of us would like to see him print out Conjure's seven steps, take it to congress and say, "Suck on this." He won't. He'll listen to the people he respects, many of whom are smart, but they come from the same system.
I know of very few leaders through history who deviated radically from the world they were a part of. The few I can think of are vilified.
So maybe the knee-jerks could take a break. Here's a topic: the tax-breaks in the recovery plan are a terrible idea.
I find the Obama bashing a bit strange. The guy was elected largely as an antidote (antidope?) to the Bush foreign policy legacy.
BTW I don't think this is an accurate assessment. One thing that is well known about Americans is that they vote their wallets, i.e. in absence of strong evidence to the contrary it should be assumed that they voted on the basis of the health of the domestic economy, just as they always have in the past.
In fact McCain was beginning to show some rebound in popularity before the credit crisis really hit in full force.
I just don't get this all out belief that government spending will improve our eCONomy.
Bush doubled the national debt from ~ $5 trillion to ~ $10 trillion. The results were disastrous.
How is a supersized Bush plan suddenly going to cause prosperity to appear? I just don't see it.
The level of almost total agreement on the need to expand government spending sure reminds me of the level of agreement that house prices always increase.
Completely serious in this request of opinion. Pondering this and unable to come up with a name. \t Citizen Jacked
Ron Paul? Dennis Kucinich? I don't really know, just a couple of names of guys who seemlike maybe a little less corrupted. Credible? Don't know there either.
power companies not expecting growth... normally can depend on at least 3% demand growth per year, and contrary to forecasts decline now a possibility...
severe basic industry cutbacks, no more spare budget to light up empty CRE, governments electing to turn off street lights that are not required... it's regional but becoming a national story similar to housing...
@Citizen Jacked - the casino also doesn't care if you catch them taking cards from the bottom of the deck - they've stopped being subtle about ripping you off.
DO YOU EVER want to change the way you see the world? Wouldn't it be fun to hallucinate on your lunch break? Although we typically associate such phenomena with powerful drugs like LSD or mescaline, it's easy to fling open the doors of perception without them: All it takes is a basic understanding of how the mind works.
How to hallucinate with ping-pong balls and a radio
Text by Johan Lehrer, graphics by Javier Zarracina Boston.com - Ideas - Globe
"I find the Obama bashing a bit strange. The guy was elected largely as an antidote (antidope?) to the Bush foreign policy legacy."
Obama was groomed and fast-tracked. As a constituent of his district, I found it mindboggling how fast they zoomed him from a state legislator of two terms to a one term US senator to prez candidate to POTUS.
I wonder if Madoff is employing the Scheherazade defense: each night telling a exotic story about where another 10 million dollars may be hidden, awaiting the Feds to retrieve it and return it to its rightful owners. As long as his captors are interested in the stories he tells, he avoids prison.
Obama made the buffalo beast's list of the 50 most loathsome people of '08. He came in at number 50. I REALLY hope that his plan works and he falls off of the list next year, but I'm afraid he may end up at the top for '09. The BEAST: America's Best Fiend
Everyone I know is reining in non-discretionary spending on restaurants, vacations, private schools, cars, gas, tech, gadgets, etc. Even wealthy people.
I know so many (both high & low earners) that didn't save dime. Good luck saving now in the face of historically low interest rates and soaring unemployment.
TARP Trap: Lawmakers are subpoenaing Treasury for the contract on the TARP deal with Citi with MI Senator Levin also possibly asking for the same information on the AIG deal. The backroom deal details being withheld have the potential to hold up the 2nd batch of the $700B bailout money due to the lack of transparency and tracking of taxpayer funds in the hastily hammered out Oct rescue package. Sunday Levin said "It's a simple request they so far have stiffed us... They promised us repeatedly we'd get the document so I intend to issue a subpoena this week to get that."
(CNN) -- The pilot who signaled air traffic controllers that his windshield had imploded and that he was bleeding before his plane crashed faked the call and later checked into a hotel using a false name Monday, authorities said.
The plane crash happened at least 223 miles away from where the pilot checked into a hotel under a false name.
Authorities identified the pilot as Marcus Schrenker, 38, from Indiana.
"All indications now are that he made some type of false emergency call [and] abandoned the plane by parachute," said Sgt. Scott Haines of the Santa Rosa County, Florida, Sheriff's Office.
Haines said the pilot checked into a hotel in the Harpersville, Alabama, area under a false name.
I think people who "get into public service" are interested in citizens' lives, but they themselves do not really grasp what the system is all about and quickly get in over their heads and become a cog in the system.
Instead of a basic understanding of power (coupled with a willingness to use democratic methods), there seems increasingly a magical belief in holy powers of democracy and "public service" to set things right. It's uncertain how much of that magical belief Obama himself has, but certainly a great majority of his supporters do -- including a lot of "educated" liberals who really ought to know better.
A little bit off topic, but I just put up a post on PCE, the savings rate and GDP on Zacks. My back of the envolope conclusion, to get PCE back down the the 65% of GDP range where it was in the mid 80's would require a decline in PCE of more than 20%, unless something rises to take its place. What will it be? Private investment? Net Exports? Gov't? Perhaps I'm all wrong and PCE stays at 70+% of GDP, but I doubt it:
I welcome anyone punching holes in my logic. Please do, becuase the implications of a 20% decline in PCE, even if spread over several years are pretty scary.
"I just don't get this all out belief that government spending will improve our eCONomy.
Bush doubled the national debt from ~ $5 trillion to ~ $10 trillion. The results were disastrous.
How is a supersized Bush plan suddenly going to cause prosperity to appear? I just don't see it.
The level of almost total agreement on the need to expand government spending sure reminds me of the level of agreement that house prices always increase."
I think it's a little unfair to accuse Obama of being anything yet, especially a supersized Bush.
While it's true that Bush's increases in government spending were a disaster...it's true because the money was spent on useless wars, stopping imaginary boogey-men (homeland security), building fences on borders, etc.
To keep this jalopy running someone will have to be spending money, and it will be the Federal Gov. because they are the only ones that will be able to...I'm not saying it's going to help that much...but it's all we got now.
This economy has only ever fed its bloated carcass on waste...at least the past few decades for sure.
It's only the beginning...we're all comrades now. Uncle Sam is going to be handing out hammers and sickles while the rest of the world has a nice long I told you so...
Nationalization of industry and finance will be the least of our concerns in the long run.
After 9/11, it was cool to spend...patriotic even. Now, not so much.
I think the public generally thought of Wall Street as exceptional and the realization that many, maybe most, were just connected rather than smart will significantly hamper the recovery. You'd literally have to tax savings to get people to spend.
But a marginal recovery will be good enough for policy makers. No one wants to be in the room when there's a meltdown.
Anybody in the Eurozone? The text of the story is a whole lot less definite than the headline...
EU Gas Monitoring Deal Signed, Flows Start Tomorrow (Update2)
By Eduard Gismatullin and Stephen Bierman
Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Russia and Ukraine signed a natural- gas monitoring deal that may pave the way for the resumption of flows to the European Union by tomorrow morning.
Jose Barroso, president of the European Commission, said an agreement allowing for gas flows to be measured had been approved by all sides. OAO Gazprom, the supplier of a quarter of the regions gas, said transit flows could start at 8 a.m. central European time. Shipments could reach European consumers 14-16 hours later, Ukraines deputy prime minister said.
[snip]
Monitoring Mission
Observers from Austria, Hungary, Italy, France and the Czeck Republic started work at the Drozdovychi, Uzhgorod, Beregovo and Tekovo metering stations near Ukraines western border and at Orlovka near Odesa in the south, Naftogaz said. They were also waiting for permits from Gazprom and Russian visas to access sites on the other side of the border. Russia, Ukraine Sign EU Gas Monitoring Deal; Flows to Resume - Bloomberg.com
With Gross scooping up TIPS I may have to recalibrate my view that massive inflation takes hold in 2 years after deflation and vote for a prolonged deflationary event lasting 5 years, not 1 or 2.
Notional lipstick on the CDS pig.
(It doesn't appear that risk is being reduced save for perhaps 'operational risk' in that backoffice can more easily manage trades. Notional reduction does not change risk profile, this appears to be merely cosmetic for the great unwashed - AM)
31 Oct 2008, 2306 hrs IST, REUTERS
LONDON: Efforts to make the credit derivatives market more efficient have shrunk the volume of outstanding contracts by $25 trillion so far this year, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association said on Friday.
In a practice known as portfolio compression, banks replace hundreds of outstanding credit default swaps (CDS) on the same company that offset each other with a single swap, making portfolios simpler and easier to manage. (Another definition of compression is ending existing CDS trades and replacing them with a smaller number of trades that leave a portfolio with the same risk profile - AM)
TriOptima, a Swedish company that provides a service helping parties compress trades, accounted for $24.5 trillion of the decrease, and Markit and Creditex, which began offering a competing service in September, for another $550 billion, ISDA said.
The market's high notional trade numbers tend to give an exaggerated impression of what is at risk (and conversely reducing notional gives an exaggerated impression of reducing risk - AM), said Robert Pickel, ISDA chief executive in a statement. "Cancelling out economically offsetting transactions reduces the costs and operational workload of managing those transactions." The notional amount of outstanding CDS decreased by 12 percent in the first six months of 2008 to $54.6 trillion from $62.2 trillion, due largely to compression, said ISDA.
Subsequent efforts would bring the outstanding amount to about $47 billion, not counting new trades since June, the association said. TriOptima said it had offered the market 39 compression cycles since the start of 2008 and will offer nine more cycles in November and December this year.
Compression cycles are a series of meetings between the company and interested market participants, where the parties can discuss and agree the terms of a deal.
According to ISDA's semi-annual survey to mid-year 2008, the notional amount outstanding of credit default swaps (CDS) decreased by 12 percent in the first six months of the year to $54.6 trillion from $62.2 trillion. For the same period, Trioptima reported $17.4 trillion in completed CDS tear-ups. Subsequent notional reductions would bring CDS notional outstandings to $46.95 trillion before accounting for new trades since July 1, 2008.
The notional principal, or notional amount, of a derivative contract is a hypothetical underlying quantity upon which interest rate or other payment obligations are calculated. Notional amounts are an approximate measure of derivatives activity and reflect the size of the field of existing transactions. For CDS this represents the face value of bonds and loans on which participants have written protection.
By Paul J Davies in London
Published: January 12 2009 02:00
Financial Times
Big investment banks ripped up more than $30,000bn worth of credit derivatives last year, or almost half the record total outstanding at the start of 2008, as they aggressively pursued efforts to tidy up the industry.
Banks' efforts to clean up credit default swaps began with modernising and speeding up the processing and confirmation of trades, then moved last year into pruning the large volumes of older, outstanding trades. The $30,000bn excised from the market last year was three times the $10,000bn taken out in 2007.
The first half of last year saw the first decline in outstanding notional volumes, which shrank from $62,300bn to $54,600bn by June 30 2008, according to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, the main lobby group for the industry.
"Madoff is the sacrificial lamb to take our eyes off of the biggest ponzi scammers; Paulson and Bernan"
Basically, it's the TV way of educating the masses on what a ponzi scheme is....later the cattle at large will be asked to infer how this ponzi thing was a bit of a larger problem...in a degree of magnitude kind of way.
"He's starting to make some money off it now, not much," says Mrs. Lereah. "We have an expensive lifestyle: a big house, a housekeeper once a week, college tuitions, the country club."
Mrs. Lereah, a CPA who also works at home, decided the only way she and her husband could work in the same house was if they pretended they were at outside offices. They communicate during the day by email and cellphone. Every morning, Mr. Lereah drives to a Dunkin' Donuts or McDonald's and eats in the car, just as he would have on his commute to NAR.
Homeland. Protect the homeland. Save the homeland. Give everything for the homeland.
Citizen to consumer.
America to homeland.
Bailout to rescue plan.
Changing the descriptors changes what is being described. Or maybe the description has to change when the changes can no longer be ignored.
The change of America becoming the homeland is significant. I'll be listening closely to Pres Obama to see if he continues this change of descriptors.
Failing to support a wholesale investigation/prosecution of the fraud and criminality that led us here is a continued breakdown of the rule of law in our country. Hope for change should lead us back to enforcing the laws of our country and the Constitutional mandate that has been the guiding standard since our inception as a country. I would recommend all leaders read the Constitution and attempt to recapture what was intended for the republic.
if bernanke and the gov are stupid enough to try and tax savings, they will see people empty their savings accounts and bury their money in their yards. Thus an attempt to increase consumption would cause a massive bank run on the decreasing deposits the banks already have on hand.
this is a liquidity trap the only way out is to acknowledge the problem and take the write off's/bk's
Blackhat,
"Ladies and gentlemen, the orange crop estimates for the next year. After calculating the estimates from various orange producing states, we have concluded the following The cold winter has apparently not effected the orange harvest. Consumers can expect orange juice prices to fall."
Banks need anothr fix ASAP, that's what Obama's request means. Soon this will be the Congressional Democrat's problem not the Republican's and the next election cycle will be under way.
McD is engaging in financial engineering by issuing the SHO=securitized hamburger obligation.
ithe security will be divided into tranches consisting of the bun, patty and secret sauce. once McD is chartered as a bank, it will be able to dip into TARP and be bailed out for over investment in espresso machines.
Dirk since you are around. You made this comment last month. Is it still operative? (Don't mean to call you out but you are one of a handful here whose opinion I value. Thanks.)
"Dirk van Dijk writes:
With a big enough stimulus package the economy will get moving again. It will be very rough on the gov't bond market with all that supply flooding in, but we did have some very good market returns durring FDR's first term. This was because the ceconomy was posting very robust economic growth as it climbed out of a very steep and deep valley. I think it is still early, and expect the market to pull back again to levels near the last low. However, there is a good chance that the Obama plan will work.
Dirk van Dijk | 12.09.08 - 1:13 pm |"
The level of almost total agreement on the need to expand government spending sure reminds me of the level of agreement that house prices always increase.
Angry Saver
I mentioned a while back that the arguments in favor of Keynesian type spending today remind me exactly of the bullish arguments on housing back in 2005.
In both cases the arguments conveniently ignore a deep fundamental flaw:
In the case of housing it was the lack of personal income growth in relation to housing debt.
In the case of Keynesian spending arguments it is essentially the same thing - lack of aggregate income in relation to aggregate debt.
Thaksin writes:
Lets move over to a new post. CR, Please
Nothing to comment here... other than ..Obama will equal Osama in his destruction to US
right idea
wrong person
bush = osama in destruction of us
(actually the damage this regime has done far exceeds the attacks on 911 which were used to shred the constitution and and complete the supremacy of the corporation over the republic)
The only politicians that don't sell out their ideals:
Kuicinich, Paul and Feingold. Everyone is bought and sold every session of Congress.
Funny how people complain about the danger of ideology in a world full of spineless sellouts where being a ideologue means waiting a couple of weeks to change your position after the latest voter poll comes out.
Early prediction: Dems will have a filibuster-proof senate majority after the 2010 election. And I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of GOP moderates (like Voinovich) cooperate in the meantime.
Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. airlines and small-jet owners have joined forces to lobby for $4 billion in economic-stimulus aid, setting aside a two-year dispute over air-traffic control costs.
Nine Washington-area trade groups representing carriers, plane users such as PepsiCo Inc.,
I don't see anything wrong with your logic. It's only a question as to where the final percentage of PCE versus GDP ends up.
It's going to be a painful process.
Needless to say, there is still a substantial amount of denial going on, not the least of which is coming from Wall Street.
Scary, isn't it?
mp | 01.12.09 - 1:41 pm | #
Yeah, I will admit I sort of pulled the 65% level out of my butt, sort of the mid point of the long term range, and things did seem to stabilize a bit in that range in the mid 80's, but it could end up being 63% or 67%. To my mind, 70% and a near zero savings rate is unsustainable, so it will be going down, but the question of how much is a good one.
well put, I'd like to see more serious talk about how we're going to solve this problem....and less about a magical stimulus plan solution.
I really don't think that's going to happen...
Honesty about the situation is not going to get any play...it's a little too dismal.
People will have to feel more pain before they accept a painful solution.
Janosik
The history of economic and financial crises suggests that political forces will lead to the continuation of excess borrowing until the political machinery becomes imminently threatened or outright fails as a result.
As I've said many times before:
Don't expect a government and financial system that has f--ked up over and over again in exactly the same way for 25 years to suddenly stop now.
We will borrow and spend until forces we don't control make us stop.
I welcome anyone punching holes in my logic. Please do, becuase the implications of a 20% decline in PCE, even if spread over several years are pretty scary. Dirk van Dijk | 01.12.09 - 1:29 pm | #
I don't see any holes - question is how far does it fall and how fast? That and what is the resulting outcome [socio-political more than economic].
The notional amount of outstanding CDS decreased by 12 percent in the first six months of 2008 to $54.6 trillion from $62.2 trillion, due largely to compression, said ISDA.
Subsequent efforts would bring the outstanding amount to about $47 billion
General Motors (GM 4.10, +0.07) stated that the $13.4 billion it is receiving from the U.S. government are consistent to cover the downside scenario envisioned for the next three months
envision? nice choice of language. I'm not aware of a time when the government's vision has been clear on anything.
Dirk, no problem with the basic concept, but I did have an odd thought regarding the pain of getting there.
If real PCE were to stay essentially flat while PDI, I/E and Gov portions were to increase (for an overall increase in GDP) I'm not sure there'd be quite as much pain. Yes, that's not the most likely thing to have happen, but it is a route to PCE becoming a reduced portion of the whole with less pain overall.
To my mind, 70% and a near zero savings rate is unsustainable
I'm always shocked at how long the foolishness actually continues. To paraphrase Buffett - in any economic cycle there are three types of investor, the innovator, the imitator and the idiot
I posit that the cycles run so unexpectedly long because we have lots of idiots.
Gazprom says Ukraine creating new gas crisis
Mon Jan 12, 2009 1:34pm EST
MOSCOW, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom (GAZP.MM) accused Ukraine of creating a fresh crisis over gas transit to Europe on Monday.
Gazprom said Ukraine was creating new problems by demanding Russia pay for "technical gas" -- the huge volumes of the fuel required to restore pressure in the pipeline system before supplies can resume. Gazprom says Ukraine creating new gas crisis
| Reuters
Ripple and second order effects - some "people on the street" quotes in different affected countries:
Re: ... continues to look--prematurely--for a bottom
This is a matter of stamina, longevity and artificial stimulus perhaps, thus a sign of an aging bull market in need of hormone therapy and intervention from a third party?
In the case of Keynesian spending arguments it is essentially the same thing - lack of aggregate income in relation to aggregate debt. ac | 01.12.09 - 1:53 pm | #
Increase money supply & velocity via Keynesian stimulus and you increase income for SOMEBODY... may not be who the politicians want to target but more and faster moving money means SOMEBODY is making more. Plus even if the debt increases so do the net assets (by definition)... but again the person/organization getting the assets isn't necessarily the same person/organization responsible for the debt. But the net aggregate is a wash.
Increase money supply & velocity via Keynesian stimulus and you increase income for SOMEBODY... may not be who the politicians want to target but more and faster moving money means SOMEBODY is making more.
True, but our economy's NX drain sure does foreigners happy.
True, but our economy's NX drain sure does foreigners happy. wheres olive | 01.12.09 - 2:27 pm | #
We are on the same page... regarding BOTH who makes the money and who remains responsible for the debt. As a result stimulating a consumer response from a society that imports a large part of it's consumption paid for with debt it is responsible for smacks of stupidity. Targeted fiscal spending [on stuff more likely to stay in country] is better but even then the problem is the multiplier effect - if a lot of that flies offshore then it isn't a lot better.
A small decrease in personal consumption has magnifiers, "knock-on effects," if you will.
Even a decrease of less than 5-10% will have large effects as the ripples spread.
If consumption actually falls by 10%, look out below.
And I am increasingly afraid that the vicious rise in unemployment has all but ensured such a drop in consumption, in the aggregate.
Many parts of the country are already running extremely high unemployment (see, eg, Mich., Oh, etc.) and a large amount of the money that is being spent in these areas is simply tax money that is being redistributed.
Wealth generation has slowed, and is beginning to dry up.
LAS VEGAS SANDS CORP and Vegas feeling the Postmortem XMAS Blues and separation anxiety with cash burn and no income. This could be a good time for Yun and Lereah to do a honeymoon vacation and promotional tour?
That was a typo in the original Reuters post. Have corrected it.
Thanks
asl hearts lenin writes:
From Comrade Swan @ 1:35
31 Oct 2008, 2306 hrs IST, REUTERS
The notional amount of outstanding CDS decreased by 12 percent in the first six months of 2008 to $54.6 trillion from $62.2 trillion, due largely to compression, said ISDA.
Subsequent efforts would bring the outstanding amount to about $47 billion
Wait, what?!
asl hearts lenin | 01.12.09 - 2:16 pm | #
... "No matter what process is taken, they always go through a middleman," advises BBC Somali service analyst Said Musa. "And trust is at the heart of everything."
Citizen Jacked writes:
Anyone name a single leader in this country who has credibility and the interests of the citizenry as their motivation?
james Webb...was reagan sec of navy, i think, and now junior senator va...is a stuanch defender of the middle class and the constitution...a sterling guy
there are others...
richard lugar of indianna...spoke the truth to power, stemmed an un-necessary us invasion in phillipines
Janosik(Unrated) writes: bond panic, currency stability, massive bank failures...
Bank failures are a thing of the past. A least, banks of any size. Little banks will fail hither and yon for a bit.
There are Treasuries and there is the dollar, and they are basically the same thing. Dollar blocks, dollar streams, oh the things you can do with them.
I imagine the main event will be materializing in that direction anon.
Both LODM on Fleck's site and Bill King have opined that they expect a huge collateral injection, in the 1 trillion range....
Agree with that concept, who knows what the scale will be.
Will say this though, the 2 Trillon in collateral that Bloomberg and Fox are suing the Federales for info on?
No way is it 2 trillion baby....
Some of it has gone to money heaven and it ain't never comin' back...
1 currency soon [yogi] writes:
Comrade Swan what happens when counterparties are left begging for their bailout money? (See Sen. Levin (D., MI) subpoena reference above?
1 currency soon [yogi] | 01.12.09 - 1:58 pm | #
Anybody in the Eurozone? The text of the story is a whole lot less definite than the headline... citizen energyecon | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 1:31 pm | #
Der russische Energieversorger Gazprom will die unterbrochenen Gaslieferungen nach Europa über die Ukraine am Dienstag zwischen 8 und 10 Uhr europäischer Zeit wieder aufnehmen. ...
rps wrote:
The USA hasn't been a democracy for quite awhile. USA has been an oligarchy since the Supreme Court selected GWB as the prez.
You of course must be referring to the stolen election of 1960 where the same chigago mob that pushed Obama our furhrer elect sole the election for kennedy?
Or is it the current "count until lyou get it right" crowd in Minnesota?
Anyone name a single leader in this country who has credibility and the interests of the citizenry as their motivation?
The problem is that the "interests" vary with the observer. Some pols believe that national security is paramount because if our nation is jeopardized, then what good are other rights? Others believe that housing is extremely important, because if individuals don't feel secure with their most important asset, then why would they spend on anything. YMMV
maybe this is why krozner is being replaced by obama on the fed board of governors
from wiki
Kroszner was a member of the President's Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) from 2001 to 2003. While at the CEA, he was heavily involved in formulating the policy response to corporate governance scandals, as well as in advising on a wide range of domestic and international issues, including banking and financial regulation, government-sponsored enterprises, pension reform, corporate governance reform, ...snip
As an economist, he was widely praised for his astute research, especially regarding banking and financial regulation. He is a student of the Chicago School of economics
maybe his strong dereg disposition was not harmonious with where obama wants to go...guessing
President George W. Bush took his last official Air Force One flight on Saturday to Virginia for a ceremony to place a warship named after his father into active duty.
why bother with the board? isn't this effectively a dictatorship run by the nyfed?
incidentally, friedman's 'monetary history' had an interesting aside about how the nyfed also seized effective power in the early 30s from what was a somewhat diverse, squabbling group.
That said, I'm the kind of person who thinks that barrels full of ducks were made to be shot at.
ac
i think the analogy is catching fish in a barrel and shooting ducks in a row. If you can get a bunch of ducks in a barrel, well, ya already got'em, why shoot'em?
"Anyone name a single leader in this country who has credibility and the interests of the citizenry as their motivation?"
i would add lincoln chaffee senator, Rhode Island
the only republican to vote against the war in iraq and it cost him an election as the party pulled the rug outfrom under him and he was beaten by sheldon whitehouse
btw...i read that whitehouse father and chaffees father were college room mates many many years ago
LAM(Unrated) writes: Hate to admit, Putins licking his lips for sure
He had it all a minute ago. Pacifist Europeans by the energy short and curlies. his only problem was that he was an obvious carnivore. Then he went from Heatmiser to Has-Been in one graceful Acapulco cliff dive.
I mean really, check out that ruble. He was the man a minute ago, then he found out that there is only one thing that sucks more than being an imploded industrial economy, it's being a resource economy that sells things to imploded industrial economies.
Maybe your successor will figure out that a government the ruler doesn't control utterly is a government that is actively opposing his rule. Every penny of corruption in the state is a failure, every right-thinking being should fear the exchequer's audit the the wrath of a manifest god.
You, Vladimir, you let your feudal underlings buy glitzy dachas with their part of the skim. Vladimir now looks even dumber than an American, don't wish to be him, he's done.
Isn't it amazing that Obama hasn't even taken office yet, and he's already managed to wreck the economy?
I'm confused.
Good. I hate free markets.
"I'd ask myself, but it's not like people could hate you much more than they already do..."
Bush said he would ask if Obama wanted. Playing Mr. Nice Guy so he won't get sent to Paraguay.
Ask not what the TARP can do for you...
Obama can then say he never asked for it and it was all Bush's idea
Well, this time Dodd wants more regulation before the funds are released. I heard him say so this morning, so all problems solved. This time those sneaky banks won't dupe our vigilant leadership, that is sincerely safeguarding our interests.
.
Here's to the new boss
Same as the old boss
- Pete Townshend
.
Continuity We Can Believe In
"Consider Obamas reaction when George Stephanopoulos played a clip of Dick Cheney counseling Obama not to implement his campaign rhetoric until hes fully briefed on the details of the Bush administrations counterterrorism policy.
I think that was pretty good advice, which is I should know whats going on before we make judgments and that we shouldnt be making judgments on the basis of incomplete information or campaign rhetoric. So Ive got no quibble with that particular quote, said Obama. Usually, presidents pretend their campaign positions are more than campaign rhetoric. Not Obama."
OP-ED COLUMNIST; Continuity We Can Believe In - NY Times
Oh No
Paulson giving his last interview -- could this signal a bottom in the market?
Bush said he would ask if Obama wanted. Playing Mr. Nice Guy so he won't get sent to Paraguay.
1 currency soon [yogi] | 01.12.09 - 11:35 am | #
I thought Bush had a rather nice ranch waiting for him in Paraguay. He likes ranchs.
If Obama is really asking for more TARP money, he'd better be willing to put some controls on it. Or he'll have the shortest honeymoon of any modern American president -- a week or less.
Historical moment. I wonder if B.O. is having regrets about taking the new job?
Once the TARP funds are gone (and they will be soon) there is going to be some real soul-searching in Congress. The question "where did the money go?" will have to be answered.
guest,
If you've been watching CNBC at all today you'd know the bottom is already in.
Can I has "change" now?
You mean B.H.O., girlbear. B.H.O.
Nanook writes:
Once the TARP funds are gone (and they will be soon) there is going to be some real soul-searching in Congress.
soul-searching? quite an assumption
Behind the scenes, wall street is no doubt telling team Obama: "we're going to need a bigger TARP."
soul-searching? quite an assumption
\t guest | \t \t \t \t01.12.09 - 11:42 am | #
guest | 01.12.09 - 11:42 am | #
LOL. Pretty good; why not use a real screen name so we can identify you next time out.
That valedictory Bush presser was one for the ages. The imaginings of Oliver Stone couldn't touch it.
Anonymous
If you've been watching CNBC at all today you'd know the bottom is already in.
ahhh yes - The CNBC bottomless bottom - what's Kudlow doing on daytime TV - looks like a demotion to me -- I digress but Maria just said something about swimming naked to Paulson -- what could she have meant?
"Obama Asks Bush to Request Remaining TARP Funds"
Should this post's tag be "Change" or "hope"?
All the TARP money will be paid back right? RIGHT!?
Woohoo! I can't wait for treasury to spend the rest of the TARP. The first half of the TARP spending did wonders for the stock market.
Bring on the prosperity (for the bankers that is).
Oil prices falling again---
Peak Oil in only one aspect in a cluster-screw of unmanageable complexity. The problem isn't only that oil production is declining. It is also that our global society is inextricably linked to it, including all our other energy production. It is that the global population is in overshoot. It's about the mounting repercussions of overpopulation, climate change, and species extinction which we would have solved through increased energy expenditure.
Peak Oil is still as relevant as it ever was. Which is to say, one important piece of the puzzle of the collapsing system.
--710
Angry Saver,
You need to think about how bad it would have been if we didn't TARP. I hope you don't have nightmares now.
TAKE THE MARKET ON THAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Audacity of D'oh!
guest
why not use a real screen name so we can identify you next time out.
xxxxx
too many hunters and chefs on this board
NOW, Why was tarp requested?
Now, What was tarp used for?
Now, Who pays for tarp?
Leeches......does it get any lower.
While on the topic of eating critters, I'm heading to Harvey's for lunch right now.
If TARP had been a plan to give money to the healthy banks and credit unions who did not create this mess, then credit would be flowing and the idiots would be out on the arses. So, as far as i'm concerned TARP did not improve anything except to bail out the guilty with massive annual bonuses which the next generation of middle class gets to pay off, with interest. Lose-Lose.
Sorry, your point was again?
Looks like Citi and AIG need some more money. We will find out sooner rather than later.
Looks like Citi and AIG need some more money. We will find out sooner rather than later.
Tom Servo | 01.12.09 - 11:55 am | #
Might be time for that bank holiday everyone has been clamoring for...
too many hunters and chefs on this board
\t Sciurus | \t \t \t \t01.12.09 - 11:50 am | #
Sciurus | 01.12.09 - 11:50 am | #
What are those?too many hunters and chefs on this board
\t Sciurus | \t \t \t \t01.12.09 - 11:50 am | #
Sciurus | 01.12.09 - 11:50 am | #
is going to be some real soul-searching in Congress
I think you meant "sole-searching".
.
dryfly, I've just got a bad feeling about citi, we discussed it some here Friday but nothing really came of it..Don't they have over a Trillion in CDS exposure?
Does anyone really still believe that TARP funds will "turn a slight profit" for the American taxpayer? Raise your hands. Anyone? Anyone?
Thought so. TARP will be a bloodbath for the American taxpayer.
Sorry, your point was again?
Peasant Darkness
The point was that it passed based on fear-mongering. You can always say something would be worse if you don't do what the say as long as you do what they say. You'll never find out if the alternative is true. I would have put a [/sarcasm] next to my comment except that I think doing so ruins the sarcasm.
The last curtain call bow that the world as we know it, is at an end; McDonalds gets in line at the TARP drive-thru window. Until then circuses and bread for the mobs.
dryfly, I've just got a bad feeling about citi, we discussed it some here Friday but nothing really came of it..Don't they have over a Trillion in CDS exposure?
Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 11:57 am | #
No idea but it is probably a large exposure... then there are the counterparties... who are they? It doesn't look good no matter what direction you look at it from.
How is that for "CHANGE"
xxxxx writes:
What are those?too many hunters and chefs on this board
hunters and chefs
If Citi, JPM, BOA or AIG receive more TARP money (under Obama) without gov't receivership or voting control, there will be hell to pay (or should be).
O/T from end of previous thread...
My depression MOM, has told me, that in Iowa, Hotel owners/managers would not rent to bankers apartments above the 2nd floor, because they were jumping out of the windows...
Just what she remembered and it has been a long time ago and not sure the percentage doing so...
For what its worth...
Anonymous | 01.12.09 - 11:53 am | #
us bank derivative exposure
It's OK, K., Citi has their trillions, JPM their tens of trillions. (Old Saul/David tease)
Does anyone really still believe that TARP funds will "turn a slight profit" for the American taxpayer? Raise your hands. Anyone? Anyone?
iceman | 01.12.09 - 11:59 am | #
In the end accounting sure. 30 years from not they might break a profit. Oh, you mean counting fees and inflation, no.
Peasant your link keeps coming up "blank page"
Citi is probably structurally insolvent if some serious "Change" doesn't materialize.
It's as plain as day to see that this free-bleeding economy is indeed bottoming, it's just that it will be doing it for considerably longer than most are willing to entertain.
We were warned about this once...
"No generation has a right to contract debts greater than can be paid off during the course of its own existence." ~George Washington
Off topic
60 Minutes - The Price of Oil, part 1 of 2
YouTube - 60 Minutes - The Price of Oil, part 1 of 2
60 Minutes - The Price of Oil, part 2 of 2
YouTube - 60 Minutes - The Price of Oil, part 2 of 2
Isn't Bush our president still? Or should he not get paid for this week?
Since Obama is calling the shots. I believe 4 years ago Bush won 4 years, and thus should be governing. It is not Obama's time yet.
"would not rent to bankers apartments above the 2nd floor, because they were jumping out of the windows..."
At least in those days the bankers had a modicum of decency and did the honorable thing----jumping. Nowadays, they get in line at the fed for more punch.
YES WE CAN !
(be more shameless)
Trying again...
derivative exposure
We did our job well.
Soul-searching in Congress????
LMAO! You are too late.
anonymous,
ah, severe jetlag makes such subtly hard to spot.
if my brain was online, I'd be working...
In the end accounting sure. 30 years from not they might break a profit. Oh, you mean counting fees and inflation, no.
\t Brontide
Good point. This is how I saw it, since accounting is flexible, as is the definition of profit.
Bush I legacy: Savings & Loan Banking bankruptcies.
Bush II legacy: United States of America bankruptcy
Sorta like the don't do drugs public message; Bush I----This is your brain. Bush II-----this is your brains of drugs
But I am willing to sell you a few, or take one in trade.
"Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide." ~John Adams
With his request for TARP funds, President Obama has just now, officially, became part of the problem.
On this bailout stuff, Bush was bad. Obama will be even worse.
For the last time, Bush said he would do whatever Obama wanted. So Bush is in charge this week. Got it?
Satan(Unrated) writes:
\tSoul-searching in Congress????
LMAO! You are too late.
\t Satan | \t \t \t \t01.12.09 - 12:07 pm | #
Satan | 01.12.09 - 12:07 pm | #
Perhaps they could give out pork packages to buy them back. Oh wait!
Hmm thanks peasant for the link. It appears they have 38 trillion in exposure? Lovely...Not to be outdone by JP with 90 trillion...These numbers seriously can't be correct, are they?
re the 60 minutes piece....
Didn't even come close to telling the story. They just focused on the actual purchases...not the BS that is allowed to occur at each front month roll-over. That's the real story with the Fed providing the cash to do it with as secondary.
But most wouldn't even begin to understand it if they had.
Ciao
MS
km4,
The USA hasn't been a democracy for quite awhile. USA has been an oligarchy since the Supreme Court selected GWB as the prez.
Madoff remains free on bail - but will be confined to the walk in closet of his pent house
The dividend on BAC is now over 10%.
What is "priced in" at this price?
Another dividend cut?
iceman writes:
Raise your hands. Anyone? Anyone?
Buehler, Buehler
Is it just me or does anyone else find it weird that Bush is just marking time until he can get out of town? Otherwise, if the economy is in such disrepair that Obama must act the minute he is in office, why doesn't Bush do something now instead of waiting for next week?
Oh wait. Bush so totally fouled up the economy with all his previous mistakes, the adults in the room have taken away his toys and he is not allowed to do anything at all.
Well, I suppose not digging a deeper hole is the first good thing BushCo has done the entire 8 years.
It was great at the press conference when they asked Bush about the $350 billion that had been spent so far. He was very eager to let everyone know that it was much more than $350 billion. Something like, "you gotta remember the AIG money, citi...""
That press conference was the perfect ending. At one point he was saying, "i'm not gonna whine about it like...oh...why did this happen on my watch...no self pity from me...that is pathetic"
Like Palin, he is funnier than the people who imitate him, but for different reasons.
MS writes:
re the 60 minutes piece....
Didn't even come close to telling the story. They just focused on the actual purchases...not the BS that is allowed to occur at each front month roll-over. That's the real story with the Fed providing the cash to do it with as secondary.
But most wouldn't even begin to understand it if they had.
Ciao
MS
Yeah, I always assume 60 minutes just skims the surface of the actual story.
It does bring the problem to the attention of j6p tthough.
Now, can they give back Obama the interest cuts?
Lets move over to a new post. CR, Please
Nothing to comment here... other than ..Obama will equal Osama in his destruction to US
If TARP had been a plan to give money to the healthy banks and credit unions who did not create this mess, then credit would be flowing and the idiots would be out on the arses.
Unless there's a secondary market, no DI is going to be making long-term fixed rates loans unless they absolutely have to. Does anyone credibly think that interest rates are going to remain this low in 5-10 years? It'll basically be the same crap in the 1970s-1980s. You're paying depositors 8% and collecting mortgages paying 5%; yes, that will work...
How many tarps will it take to cover a Citi...
Just picturing how efficent folks cover ballfields
Although tarps only last one season if left out in the sun for to long
"Bush II-----this is your brains of drugs"
typo error, meant: Bush II-----this is your brains ON drugs
km4, my belief has always been that the form of government matters less than mechanisms to keep corruption in check. Some org systems naturally make it harder to put and keep these mechanisms in place. Our Democracy can survive if it focusses on transparency and social justice above all else. The MSM embracing the extremist noise machines have made that increasingly difficult the last few decades. I have hopes that community involvement through the internet will counteract that. It's giving it a good go already.
(and by the by, no one who knows me in the wet-world would ever call me an optimist.)
So who hits $200 first, SRS or EEV?
comrade k,
the risk on that chart is OBS derivative exposure, which was never defined well. CDS derivative exposure is probably a subset of that, and may be 1 trillion, which would make credit default swaps the tip of some kind of large frozen floating thing.
Ford May Seek U.S. Help as Economy Imperils Sales (Update3)
Are they just plain stupid?????
Peasant Darkness Americans don't seem to know much about history and agree community involvement through the internet is best hope to keep semblance of democracy alive
"America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves." ~Abraham Lincol
"These numbers seriously can't be correct, are they?"
No, they are from August. They can only be larger.
One writer thought JPM's exposure netted out at only 1% or less. ($900 Billion) But that was qualified by 'if no other extreme circumstances' (my paraphrase) like failing counterparties.
Thanks Peasant, I knew that was total exposure. Someone the other day said their CDS exposure was around 1 Trillion so your estimate seems pretty reasonable.
ever been a better time for a lame duck to get a payday loan for the one prior to filing a 1040EZ on the US economy.
http://images.despair.com/products/demotivators/priorities.jpg
"Hundreds of years from now, it will not matter what my bank account was, the sort of house I lived in, or the kind of car I drove... But the world may be different because I did something so bafflingly crazy that my ruins become a tourist attraction. "
"He was very eager to let everyone know that it was much more than $350 billion. Something like, "you gotta remember the AIG money, citi..."
That's the thing about GWB, he'll tell you he's screwing you and remind you in case you forgot. Remember GWB's Social Security "IOU's" files cabinet comment and "Heckuva' job Brownie interpreted as what a royal f-up dipshipt. Good ole' boy humor.
The second half recover is back, baby!
We will gradually start to come back in the second half, Ford Chief Executive Officer Alan Mulally said today in a Bloomberg Television interview from the Detroit auto show.
Ford May Seek U.S. Help as Economy Imperils Sales (Update3)
Citigroup is cliff-diving. What if today is the end for them?
Madoff must have naked pictures of alot of people.
What a crock of shit...
Ciao
MS
Probably good to have a capital cushion to brace for the next wave of defaults.
Angry Saver,
You need to think about how bad it would have been if we didn't TARP. I hope you don't have nightmares now.
Anonymous | 01.12.09 - 11:49 am | #
If the TARP was indeed critically necessary as you imply, that only highlights the extent of the swindle.
The TARP was a massive transfer of wealth from taxpeayers to the banks and bank shareholders. A total giveaway.
The terms were overly generous to the banks.
SRS seems like it has more upside potential with CRE fallout in its nascent satges, but EEM could revisit 18 and therefore could get EEV back to par
Citigroup is cliff-diving. What if today is the end for them?
That's Ballgame Comrades | 01.12.09 - 12:26 pm | #
today, tomorrow..., it's just part of a continuum really. Just ask conjure's clock.
Will Obama as his first official act as POTUS award GWB with the "Medal of Freedom"? That was always a sure-fire sign during GWB's administration that the honoree was a f-up;)
Angry Saver | 01.12.09 - 12:26 pm | #
That is starting to get coverage in MSM, saw some Bloomberg TV with TARP deal (GS maybe?) as "twice the price for 75% less."
Anyone have a link to Bush's last press conference? I swear I looked.
km4, I'm mixed on the history thing. Have been since my first summer in Netherlands when after doing copious research into that country to avoid being the borish american I discovered that a) people who think they know their history don't, they actually know myths, which may actually be more dangerous than a blank slate, and b) they were still really pissed at the germans for something that happened in the 1400s.
The u.s. has this interesting policy of re-embracing our enemy's 30 years on. exactly because we forget. (vietnam, for example, right one schedule) I'm not sure that's a bad thing.
The u.s. makes stupid policy because someone gains power from it, not because they don't remember. By focussing on forgetfulness as the key problem, the right can just haul out "elitist educated" labels to defeat it. For example, the s&l debacle is within living memory. You can't blame our current crisis on lack of historical memory, it's just cronyism.
More journalism exports: Chicago Sun-Times considers basing 25 percent of its copy desk in India.
If the TARP was indeed critically necessary as you imply...
Angry Saver
It was supposed to be a joke, but it flopped. Sorry.
It's only people's savings after all.
Might as well take all of it - they're just dumb animals standing in the way of economic growth.
That Madoff isn't in prison is ridiculous, but not surprising. I'd be happy, though, with just a scheduled perp walk around his block.
Are they just plain stupid?????
anonymous | 01.12.09 - 12:21 pm | #
Desperate.
I propose new program....BARF
Back Again Relief Program
....for those that need some more
Would Madoff be in jail if he was a gang banger who stole 50K?
I think so.
The hypocrisy of our system is galling
If the TARP was indeed critically necessary as you imply, that only highlights the extent of the swindle.
Angry Saver | 01.12.09 - 12:26 pm | #
And that 'prepackaged bankruptcy' should have been implemented early and often.
In the meantime, HIG - 15%, PRU - 10%
enegyecon,
The TARP is the biggest swindle in history. During Sweden's banking crisis in 1990, all bank equity was wiped out, however, bondholders were protected. Life in Sweden continued.
The American taxpayer was forced to guarantee the equity values and dividends of wealthy bankers.
A total sham. Paulson bailed out wall street and sold out main street.
Madoff is walking around because "they" (politicians, "charitable foundations", etc..) are hoping someone bumps him off before he spills the beans. Until then file burnings, hard drive "cleanings"......
Gameshow ideas for the next administration:
Who wants to be a Quadrillionaire?(hyperinflation edition)
TARP of Fortune.
Job or No Job.
Would Madoff be in jail if he was a gang banger who stole 50K?
I think so.
The hypocrisy of our system is galling
A gangbanger would be in prison if they stole only 5K.
anon, try the Yahoo finance page. They had the video of the presser up, last I looked.
The MSM is derelict. Its demise is assured by virtue of alternative news sources such as blogs.
Sam Zell should have stuck to inflation surfing via real estate.
Nor Car writes:
Would Madoff be in jail if he was a gang banger who stole 50K?
I think so.
The hypocrisy of our system is galling
Not just that: imagine of said gang member had been caught doing something illegal while out on bail...back in the pokey for you, pal.
This just tells criminals they have to aim higher...steal more and you'll be treated better.
Bet Madoff stays inside and away from windows.
Off topic
Joe the Plumber now reporter thinks reporters should not report on war.
YouTube - Joe Plumber: Media Shouldn't Report War
Americans look at the wealthy among them with the rosy lenses of the American Myth. The American Myth is alive in Atlas Shrugged - that competent, hard working, gifted individuals come to be fabulously wealthy. That there is upward mobility and its realization is won through merit and hard work. This myth keeps the rich safe.
When people start looking at the rich as they do in countries like South America -- that they hold their wealth not through merit but through force, greed, corruption, and thievery, then we'll start seeing some idiots wake up. Then we'll start eating the rich.
Joe who?
Bet Madoff stays inside and away from windows.
Gubbmint Cheese | 01.12.09 - 12:40 pm | #
If they want to get him they will - he can run but there is nowhere to hide.
Enews Story
Drop in Machine Tool Consumption Reflects Manufacturing Slowdown
November U.S. machine tool consumption totaled $185.57 million, according to AMTDA, the American Machine Tool Distributors' Association, and AMT - The Association For Manufacturing Technology.
This total, as reported by companies participating in the USMTC program, was down 34.7% from October and down 51.4% from the total of $381.76 million reported for November 2007.
With a year-to-date total of $4 billion, 2008 is up 2.8% compared with 2007.
"The November numbers demonstrate the much publicized slowdown in manufacturing," said Peter Borden, AMTDA President. "After three years of averaging over 2,000 units per month, unit consumption fell back to a level that we have not seen since Jan. 2004 and Jan. 2005. We are not optimistic about the numbers improving quickly unless the new administration can create some confidence in the marketplace for all sectors of the U.S. economy."
The United States Manufacturing Technology Consumption (USMTC) report, jointly compiled by the two trade associations representing the production and distribution of manufacturing technology, provides regional and national U.S. consumption data of domestic and imported machine tools and related equipment.
U.S. manufacturing technology consumption is also reported on a regional basis for five geographic breakdowns of the United States.
Northeast Region
November manufacturing technology consumption in the Northeast Region totaled $33.91 million, 19.9% less than October's $42.31 million, and down 43.0% when compared with the total for November a year ago. The $585.00 million year-to-date total is down 3.5% when compared with 2007 at the same time.
Southern Region
Manufacturing technology consumption in the Southern Region in November stood at $27.74 million, down 4.5% when compared with October's $29.06 million and 45.1% less than the total for November a year ago. The $598.67 million year-to-date total is 19.8% higher than the comparable figure for 2007.
Midwest Region
Midwest Region manufacturing technology consumption in November totaled $65.27 million, 32.3% less than the $96.44 million tallied in October and down 45.2% when compared with last November. At $1,352.61 million, the 2008 year-to-date total is 6.0% above the comparable figure a year ago.
Central Region
At $43.78 million, November manufacturing technology consumption in the Central Region was 45.2% below the October total of $79.95 million and 51.8% less than in November 2007. With a year-to-date total of $997.77 million, 2008 is up 0.4% when compared with 2007 at the same time.
Western Region
Western Region manufacturing technology consumption totaled $14.87 million in November, down 59.3% when compared with October's $36.50 million, and down 75.9% when compared with November 2007. At $470.26 million, the 2008 year-to-date total is 9.3% less than the comparable figure for 2007.
Monday, January 12, 2009
Why does the Washington Post hate America so much?
Bush Lead During Weakest Economy in Decades - washingtonpost.com
Hoopajoops, LTD writes:
Americans look at the wealthy among them with the rosy lenses of the American Myth.
The Horatio Alger myth of meritocracy.
OT: Sponsor an Exec.
YouTube - Sponsor an Executive
Watching it now. Thanks merciless.
Hell, I've just sent e-mails to both my Senator's and my PSC over my frigging telephone carrier where my business is located.
A telephone Company in bombed fuc## egypt has exclusive carrier rights in this town and parts of the county.
They have helt me hostage long enought.$79.55 for business high speed.
Tarp me please and the rest of US thats trying to make a living(working).
I see an America where the rich can stand proud! A land where every American knows his place, and embraces it. A land where the right to chase a delusion is as important as my right to create them. I know, together, we can reap what others had sown.
May 16, 1801 Address, Philadelphia. John J. Richardson III
S&P puts Spain on CreditWatch negative
comscore has yet to release their full holiday season spending press release...their last press release had etail spending down 3% through Dec. 23:
Sales during Online Holiday Shopping Season Decline by 3 Percent - comScore, Inc
But no wrap up through Dec. 31 yet:
Press Releases - comScore, Inc
rps wrote:
Bush I legacy: Savings & Loan Banking bankruptcies.
Bush II legacy: United States of America bankruptcy
Don't underestimate U.S. stupidity... there will be a President Jeb Bush someday!
Paulson told Maria Butt this morning that he had informed the Obama transition team about his game plan change for the TARP bucks
I got this transcript from some blog somewhere, for what it is worth.
Ring ring
Obama transition team: Hey, dude
Paulson: I decided intelligently to not buy MBS but just give the 350 big ones away
Obama transition team How much do we get?
Paulson: Half
Obama transition team Cool dude
Paulson So it is a go?
Obama transition team Sure, just dont tell Blago, the dude is wired.
citizen energyecon wrote:
comscore has yet to release their full holiday season spending
while at least we can look forward to the surge from gift card redemptions in January --
I find the Obama bashing a bit strange. The guy was elected largely as an antidote (antidope?) to the Bush foreign policy legacy. The economic world we see before us is far different than the one in which the campaign was conducted.
The guy is a Harvard law guy - an establishment darling. I know many of us would like to see him print out Conjure's seven steps, take it to congress and say, "Suck on this." He won't. He'll listen to the people he respects, many of whom are smart, but they come from the same system.
I know of very few leaders through history who deviated radically from the world they were a part of. The few I can think of are vilified.
So maybe the knee-jerks could take a break. Here's a topic: the tax-breaks in the recovery plan are a terrible idea.
Exec. Comp. gets all the chatter, but dividends paid by TARP companies is the real issue of course.
S&P puts Spain on CreditWatch negative
Time to print them up a fresh batch of Euros.
Hiarchy.....Why not just go with Kings.
I find the Obama bashing a bit strange. The guy was elected largely as an antidote (antidope?) to the Bush foreign policy legacy.
And yet he proposes Bush style borrowing and spending as an economic remedy -- only in overdrive.
Perhaps the criticism comes from a perception that Obama simply represent more of exactly the same type of policy that got us where we are today.
To me it looks just like a gambler who gets in over his head and only sees one possible solution.
I like to call it "Double-Down Economics".
Anyone name a single leader in this country who has credibility and the interests of the citizenry as their motivation?
Completely serious in this request of opinion. Pondering this and unable to come up with a name.
I find the Obama bashing a bit strange. The guy was elected largely as an antidote (antidope?) to the Bush foreign policy legacy.
BTW I don't think this is an accurate assessment. One thing that is well known about Americans is that they vote their wallets, i.e. in absence of strong evidence to the contrary it should be assumed that they voted on the basis of the health of the domestic economy, just as they always have in the past.
In fact McCain was beginning to show some rebound in popularity before the credit crisis really hit in full force.
"Double-down economics"
Brilliant!
ac,
I just don't get this all out belief that government spending will improve our eCONomy.
Bush doubled the national debt from ~ $5 trillion to ~ $10 trillion. The results were disastrous.
How is a supersized Bush plan suddenly going to cause prosperity to appear? I just don't see it.
The level of almost total agreement on the need to expand government spending sure reminds me of the level of agreement that house prices always increase.
Bush's last press conference:
Bush's Last Press Conference Monday (VIDEO)
I'm willing to bet Bernie Madoff's testimony will sound very similar -
there were mistakes sure.. but overall.. I did the right thing considering the circumstances..
Completely serious in this request of opinion. Pondering this and unable to come up with a name.
\t Citizen Jacked
Ron Paul? Dennis Kucinich? I don't really know, just a couple of names of guys who seemlike maybe a little less corrupted. Credible? Don't know there either.
The problem with doubling down is if you win the casino has the funds to pay you off.
The casino is broke and is counting on you not winning.
power companies not expecting growth... normally can depend on at least 3% demand growth per year, and contrary to forecasts decline now a possibility...
severe basic industry cutbacks, no more spare budget to light up empty CRE, governments electing to turn off street lights that are not required... it's regional but becoming a national story similar to housing...
@Citizen Jacked - the casino also doesn't care if you catch them taking cards from the bottom of the deck - they've stopped being subtle about ripping you off.
DO YOU EVER want to change the way you see the world? Wouldn't it be fun to hallucinate on your lunch break? Although we typically associate such phenomena with powerful drugs like LSD or mescaline, it's easy to fling open the doors of perception without them: All it takes is a basic understanding of how the mind works.
How to hallucinate with ping-pong balls and a radio
Text by Johan Lehrer, graphics by Javier Zarracina
Boston.com - Ideas - Globe
"I find the Obama bashing a bit strange. The guy was elected largely as an antidote (antidope?) to the Bush foreign policy legacy."
Obama was groomed and fast-tracked. As a constituent of his district, I found it mindboggling how fast they zoomed him from a state legislator of two terms to a one term US senator to prez candidate to POTUS.
I wonder if Madoff is employing the Scheherazade defense: each night telling a exotic story about where another 10 million dollars may be hidden, awaiting the Feds to retrieve it and return it to its rightful owners. As long as his captors are interested in the stories he tells, he avoids prison.
Obama made the buffalo beast's list of the 50 most loathsome people of '08. He came in at number 50. I REALLY hope that his plan works and he falls off of the list next year, but I'm afraid he may end up at the top for '09.
The BEAST: America's Best Fiend
I see deflation all around me.
Everyone I know is reining in non-discretionary spending on restaurants, vacations, private schools, cars, gas, tech, gadgets, etc. Even wealthy people.
I know so many (both high & low earners) that didn't save dime. Good luck saving now in the face of historically low interest rates and soaring unemployment.
Profits are going to continue to get crushed.
"I wonder if Madoff is employing the Scheherazade defense"
I believe he's employed the schadenfreude defense, aka it sucks to be you to the "too good to be true" Madoff investors platinum membership club
TARP Trap: Lawmakers are subpoenaing Treasury for the contract on the TARP deal with Citi with MI Senator Levin also possibly asking for the same information on the AIG deal. The backroom deal details being withheld have the potential to hold up the 2nd batch of the $700B bailout money due to the lack of transparency and tracking of taxpayer funds in the hastily hammered out Oct rescue package. Sunday Levin said "It's a simple request they so far have stiffed us... They promised us repeatedly we'd get the document so I intend to issue a subpoena this week to get that."
This just tells criminals they have to aim higher...steal more and you'll be treated better.
giacutter
no, just that they should steal from their friends.
Life Insurance Scam...
Authorities: Pilot who bailed from plane under securities probe - CNN.com
(CNN) -- The pilot who signaled air traffic controllers that his windshield had imploded and that he was bleeding before his plane crashed faked the call and later checked into a hotel using a false name Monday, authorities said.
The plane crash happened at least 223 miles away from where the pilot checked into a hotel under a false name.
Authorities identified the pilot as Marcus Schrenker, 38, from Indiana.
"All indications now are that he made some type of false emergency call [and] abandoned the plane by parachute," said Sgt. Scott Haines of the Santa Rosa County, Florida, Sheriff's Office.
Haines said the pilot checked into a hotel in the Harpersville, Alabama, area under a false name.
Exporters in India expect to lay off 10 Million people in the next three months.
I think people who "get into public service" are interested in citizens' lives, but they themselves do not really grasp what the system is all about and quickly get in over their heads and become a cog in the system.
Instead of a basic understanding of power (coupled with a willingness to use democratic methods), there seems increasingly a magical belief in holy powers of democracy and "public service" to set things right. It's uncertain how much of that magical belief Obama himself has, but certainly a great majority of his supporters do -- including a lot of "educated" liberals who really ought to know better.
guest | 01.12.09 - 11:38 am | #
HA! You're posting clips from Bill Kristol, the biggest f'ing scumbag neocon of all, and expect to be taken seriously?
FAIL
Red Rover send those TARP funds over
Here is what TARP needs to "fix":
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/sp-composite-real-regression-to-mean-large.gif
What has Madoff done that Paulson didn't do....Leeches...
"Debt we can believe in"
A little bit off topic, but I just put up a post on PCE, the savings rate and GDP on Zacks. My back of the envolope conclusion, to get PCE back down the the 65% of GDP range where it was in the mid 80's would require a decline in PCE of more than 20%, unless something rises to take its place. What will it be? Private investment? Net Exports? Gov't? Perhaps I'm all wrong and PCE stays at 70+% of GDP, but I doubt it:
Savings, Consumption & the Economy
I welcome anyone punching holes in my logic. Please do, becuase the implications of a 20% decline in PCE, even if spread over several years are pretty scary.
In response to...
"I just don't get this all out belief that government spending will improve our eCONomy.
Bush doubled the national debt from ~ $5 trillion to ~ $10 trillion. The results were disastrous.
How is a supersized Bush plan suddenly going to cause prosperity to appear? I just don't see it.
The level of almost total agreement on the need to expand government spending sure reminds me of the level of agreement that house prices always increase."
I think it's a little unfair to accuse Obama of being anything yet, especially a supersized Bush.
While it's true that Bush's increases in government spending were a disaster...it's true because the money was spent on useless wars, stopping imaginary boogey-men (homeland security), building fences on borders, etc.
To keep this jalopy running someone will have to be spending money, and it will be the Federal Gov. because they are the only ones that will be able to...I'm not saying it's going to help that much...but it's all we got now.
This economy has only ever fed its bloated carcass on waste...at least the past few decades for sure.
It's only the beginning...we're all comrades now. Uncle Sam is going to be handing out hammers and sickles while the rest of the world has a nice long I told you so...
Nationalization of industry and finance will be the least of our concerns in the long run.
Even wealthy people.
After 9/11, it was cool to spend...patriotic even. Now, not so much.
I think the public generally thought of Wall Street as exceptional and the realization that many, maybe most, were just connected rather than smart will significantly hamper the recovery. You'd literally have to tax savings to get people to spend.
But a marginal recovery will be good enough for policy makers. No one wants to be in the room when there's a meltdown.
Anybody in the Eurozone? The text of the story is a whole lot less definite than the headline...
EU Gas Monitoring Deal Signed, Flows Start Tomorrow (Update2)
By Eduard Gismatullin and Stephen Bierman
Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Russia and Ukraine signed a natural- gas monitoring deal that may pave the way for the resumption of flows to the European Union by tomorrow morning.
Jose Barroso, president of the European Commission, said an agreement allowing for gas flows to be measured had been approved by all sides. OAO Gazprom, the supplier of a quarter of the regions gas, said transit flows could start at 8 a.m. central European time. Shipments could reach European consumers 14-16 hours later, Ukraines deputy prime minister said.
[snip]
Monitoring Mission
Observers from Austria, Hungary, Italy, France and the Czeck Republic started work at the Drozdovychi, Uzhgorod, Beregovo and Tekovo metering stations near Ukraines western border and at Orlovka near Odesa in the south, Naftogaz said. They were also waiting for permits from Gazprom and Russian visas to access sites on the other side of the border.
Russia, Ukraine Sign EU Gas Monitoring Deal; Flows to Resume - Bloomberg.com
Madoff is the sacrificial lamb to take our eyes off of the biggest ponzi scammers; Paulson and Bernanke
With Gross scooping up TIPS I may have to recalibrate my view that massive inflation takes hold in 2 years after deflation and vote for a prolonged deflationary event lasting 5 years, not 1 or 2.
food cratering...next ag...
Wheat, Corn, Soybeans Plummet as U.S. Predicts Larger Supplies - Bloomberg.com
DO NOT UNDERSTESIMATE THE POWER OF DEFLATION...
...or dark-side...whatever.
-bh
OT
Notional lipstick on the CDS pig.
(It doesn't appear that risk is being reduced save for perhaps 'operational risk' in that backoffice can more easily manage trades. Notional reduction does not change risk profile, this appears to be merely cosmetic for the great unwashed - AM)
31 Oct 2008, 2306 hrs IST, REUTERS
LONDON: Efforts to make the credit derivatives market more efficient have shrunk the volume of outstanding contracts by $25 trillion so far this year, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association said on Friday.
In a practice known as portfolio compression, banks replace hundreds of outstanding credit default swaps (CDS) on the same company that offset each other with a single swap, making portfolios simpler and easier to manage. (Another definition of compression is ending existing CDS trades and replacing them with a smaller number of trades that leave a portfolio with the same risk profile - AM)
TriOptima, a Swedish company that provides a service helping parties compress trades, accounted for $24.5 trillion of the decrease, and Markit and Creditex, which began offering a competing service in September, for another $550 billion, ISDA said.
The market's high notional trade numbers tend to give an exaggerated impression of what is at risk (and conversely reducing notional gives an exaggerated impression of reducing risk - AM), said Robert Pickel, ISDA chief executive in a statement. "Cancelling out economically offsetting transactions reduces the costs and operational workload of managing those transactions." The notional amount of outstanding CDS decreased by 12 percent in the first six months of 2008 to $54.6 trillion from $62.2 trillion, due largely to compression, said ISDA.
Subsequent efforts would bring the outstanding amount to about $47 billion, not counting new trades since June, the association said. TriOptima said it had offered the market 39 compression cycles since the start of 2008 and will offer nine more cycles in November and December this year.
Compression cycles are a series of meetings between the company and interested market participants, where the parties can discuss and agree the terms of a deal.
According to ISDA's semi-annual survey to mid-year 2008, the notional amount outstanding of credit default swaps (CDS) decreased by 12 percent in the first six months of the year to $54.6 trillion from $62.2 trillion. For the same period, Trioptima reported $17.4 trillion in completed CDS tear-ups. Subsequent notional reductions would bring CDS notional outstandings to $46.95 trillion before accounting for new trades since July 1, 2008.
The notional principal, or notional amount, of a derivative contract is a hypothetical underlying quantity upon which interest rate or other payment obligations are calculated. Notional amounts are an approximate measure of derivatives activity and reflect the size of the field of existing transactions. For CDS this represents the face value of bonds and loans on which participants have written protection.
By Paul J Davies in London
Published: January 12 2009 02:00
Financial Times
Big investment banks ripped up more than $30,000bn worth of credit derivatives last year, or almost half the record total outstanding at the start of 2008, as they aggressively pursued efforts to tidy up the industry.
Banks' efforts to clean up credit default swaps began with modernising and speeding up the processing and confirmation of trades, then moved last year into pruning the large volumes of older, outstanding trades. The $30,000bn excised from the market last year was three times the $10,000bn taken out in 2007.
The first half of last year saw the first decline in outstanding notional volumes, which shrank from $62,300bn to $54,600bn by June 30 2008, according to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, the main lobby group for the industry.
"Madoff is the sacrificial lamb to take our eyes off of the biggest ponzi scammers; Paulson and Bernan"
Basically, it's the TV way of educating the masses on what a ponzi scheme is....later the cattle at large will be asked to infer how this ponzi thing was a bit of a larger problem...in a degree of magnitude kind of way.
Has anybody here read Denninger today on hyperinflation? If so, any comments?
Dirk van Dijk | 01.12.09 - 1:29 pm | #
Nice post, esp. the prayer.
This is a gem. David Lereah update.
Realtors' Former Top Economist Says Don't Blame the Messenger - WSJ.com
I believe this is my favorite part...
"He's starting to make some money off it now, not much," says Mrs. Lereah. "We have an expensive lifestyle: a big house, a housekeeper once a week, college tuitions, the country club."
Mrs. Lereah, a CPA who also works at home, decided the only way she and her husband could work in the same house was if they pretended they were at outside offices. They communicate during the day by email and cellphone. Every morning, Mr. Lereah drives to a Dunkin' Donuts or McDonald's and eats in the car, just as he would have on his commute to NAR.
OT- Anybody read Denniger today:
The Market Ticker
Interesting thoughts on hyper-inflation.
Dirk van Dijk- "I welcome anyone punching holes in my logic."
I don't see anything wrong with your logic. It's only a question as to where the final percentage of PCE versus GDP ends up.
It's going to be a painful process.
Needless to say, there is still a substantial amount of denial going on, not the least of which is coming from Wall Street.
Scary, isn't it?
Fatherland, Motherland, Homeland.
Homeland. Protect the homeland. Save the homeland. Give everything for the homeland.
Citizen to consumer.
America to homeland.
Bailout to rescue plan.
Changing the descriptors changes what is being described. Or maybe the description has to change when the changes can no longer be ignored.
The change of America becoming the homeland is significant. I'll be listening closely to Pres Obama to see if he continues this change of descriptors.
Failing to support a wholesale investigation/prosecution of the fraud and criminality that led us here is a continued breakdown of the rule of law in our country. Hope for change should lead us back to enforcing the laws of our country and the Constitutional mandate that has been the guiding standard since our inception as a country. I would recommend all leaders read the Constitution and attempt to recapture what was intended for the republic.
Anyone name a single leader in this country who has credibility and the interests of the citizenry as their motivation?
SC Gov. Mark Sanford, opposes all bailouts, abided by self-term limits in Congress.
"The dividend on BAC is now over 10%."
you really think it will be spitting out a 35 cent quarter a year from now?
if bernanke and the gov are stupid enough to try and tax savings, they will see people empty their savings accounts and bury their money in their yards. Thus an attempt to increase consumption would cause a massive bank run on the decreasing deposits the banks already have on hand.
this is a liquidity trap the only way out is to acknowledge the problem and take the write off's/bk's
"This is a gem. David Lereah update."
Lereah made his own bed. Now he gets to sleep in it.
Lawrence Yun is right behind him, but Yun has yet to figure it out.
Blackhat,
"Ladies and gentlemen, the orange crop estimates for the next year. After calculating the estimates from various orange producing states, we have concluded the following The cold winter has apparently not effected the orange harvest. Consumers can expect orange juice prices to fall."
Thanks for coming out, commodities junkies.
Banks need anothr fix ASAP, that's what Obama's request means. Soon this will be the Congressional Democrat's problem not the Republican's and the next election cycle will be under way.
Citigroup is getting crushed today.
C: Summary for CITIGROUP INC- Yahoo! Finance
Perhaps this is why Robert Rubin resigned - so he could dump what's left of his shares before they go tits up.
The only politicians that don't sell out their ideals:
Kuicinich, Paul and Feingold. Everyone is bought and sold every session of Congress.
Peasant Darkness at 1206 thanks for the link
McD is engaging in financial engineering by issuing the SHO=securitized hamburger obligation.
ithe security will be divided into tranches consisting of the bun, patty and secret sauce. once McD is chartered as a bank, it will be able to dip into TARP and be bailed out for over investment in espresso machines.
Dirk since you are around. You made this comment last month. Is it still operative? (Don't mean to call you out but you are one of a handful here whose opinion I value. Thanks.)
"Dirk van Dijk writes:
With a big enough stimulus package the economy will get moving again. It will be very rough on the gov't bond market with all that supply flooding in, but we did have some very good market returns durring FDR's first term. This was because the ceconomy was posting very robust economic growth as it climbed out of a very steep and deep valley. I think it is still early, and expect the market to pull back again to levels near the last low. However, there is a good chance that the Obama plan will work.
Dirk van Dijk | 12.09.08 - 1:13 pm |"
The level of almost total agreement on the need to expand government spending sure reminds me of the level of agreement that house prices always increase.
Angry Saver
I mentioned a while back that the arguments in favor of Keynesian type spending today remind me exactly of the bullish arguments on housing back in 2005.
In both cases the arguments conveniently ignore a deep fundamental flaw:
In the case of housing it was the lack of personal income growth in relation to housing debt.
In the case of Keynesian spending arguments it is essentially the same thing - lack of aggregate income in relation to aggregate debt.
"Kuicinich, Paul and Feingold."
Barbara Lee is actually in a group of one on at least one key vote in regards to overseas adventures.
alybaba writes:
The only politicians that don't sell out their ideals:
Bernie Sanders comes to mind.. NO party...
Thaksin writes:
Lets move over to a new post. CR, Please
Nothing to comment here... other than ..Obama will equal Osama in his destruction to US
right idea
wrong person
bush = osama in destruction of us
(actually the damage this regime has done far exceeds the attacks on 911 which were used to shred the constitution and and complete the supremacy of the corporation over the republic)
Kuicinich, Paul and Feingold. Everyone is bought and sold every session of Congress.
alybaba | 01.12.09 - 1:50 pm | #
Also Bernie Sanders. And I have a healthy respect for Pat Leahy.
Comrade Swan what happens when counterparties are left begging for their bailout money? (See Sen. Levin (D., MI) subpoena reference above?
ac...
well put, I'd like to see more serious talk about how we're going to solve this problem....and less about a magical stimulus plan solution.
I really don't think that's going to happen...
Honesty about the situation is not going to get any play...it's a little too dismal.
People will have to feel more pain before they accept a painful solution.
I have high hopes for Al Franken. Love Feingold.
Thus an attempt to increase consumption would cause a massive bank run on the decreasing deposits the banks already have on hand.
And a run on shovels.
The only politicians that don't sell out their ideals:
Kuicinich, Paul and Feingold. Everyone is bought and sold every session of Congress.
Funny how people complain about the danger of ideology in a world full of spineless sellouts where being a ideologue means waiting a couple of weeks to change your position after the latest voter poll comes out.
Early prediction: Dems will have a filibuster-proof senate majority after the 2010 election. And I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of GOP moderates (like Voinovich) cooperate in the meantime.
Voinovich to Retire From Senate in 2010 - The Caucus Blog - NYTimes.com
mp,
Are you saying that Lereah and Yun sleep in the same bed?
Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. airlines and small-jet owners have joined forces to lobby for $4 billion in economic-stimulus aid, setting aside a two-year dispute over air-traffic control costs.
Nine Washington-area trade groups representing carriers, plane users such as PepsiCo Inc.,
Airlines, Small-Jet Owners Seek $4 Billion in U.S. Stimulus Aid - Bloomberg.com
solution: mandate that TARP recipients use corporate jets
I don't see anything wrong with your logic. It's only a question as to where the final percentage of PCE versus GDP ends up.
It's going to be a painful process.
Needless to say, there is still a substantial amount of denial going on, not the least of which is coming from Wall Street.
Scary, isn't it?
mp | 01.12.09 - 1:41 pm | #
Yeah, I will admit I sort of pulled the 65% level out of my butt, sort of the mid point of the long term range, and things did seem to stabilize a bit in that range in the mid 80's, but it could end up being 63% or 67%. To my mind, 70% and a near zero savings rate is unsustainable, so it will be going down, but the question of how much is a good one.
interesting to see the big banks testing those Nov 21 levels. thoughts?
Dirk van Dijk writes:
A little bit off topic, but I just put up a post on PCE, the savings rate and GDP on Zacks.
Great article.
Thanks
"Are you saying that Lereah and Yun sleep in the same bed?"
Yes, figuratively speaking.
ac...
well put, I'd like to see more serious talk about how we're going to solve this problem....and less about a magical stimulus plan solution.
I really don't think that's going to happen...
Honesty about the situation is not going to get any play...it's a little too dismal.
People will have to feel more pain before they accept a painful solution.
Janosik
The history of economic and financial crises suggests that political forces will lead to the continuation of excess borrowing until the political machinery becomes imminently threatened or outright fails as a result.
As I've said many times before:
Don't expect a government and financial system that has f--ked up over and over again in exactly the same way for 25 years to suddenly stop now.
We will borrow and spend until forces we don't control make us stop.
Can you blame Obama for doing it?
We will borrow and spend until forces we don't control make us stop.
ac | 01.12.09 - 2:10 pm | #
Unfortunately, yes.
Re: figuratively speaking.
Thanks for suggesting that that wasn't a literal possibility, but how can one really be sure?
fed gov krozner resigns effective 1/21
I welcome anyone punching holes in my logic. Please do, becuase the implications of a 20% decline in PCE, even if spread over several years are pretty scary.
Dirk van Dijk | 01.12.09 - 1:29 pm | #
I don't see any holes - question is how far does it fall and how fast? That and what is the resulting outcome [socio-political more than economic].
Should we all be cheering for Eric's puts? Things seem to on a precipitous downward skid.
Those forces seem to be materializing faster and faster...
We've seen many thoughts on this board about what will be the next shoe to drop...
bond panic, currency stability, massive bank failures...
I honestly have no idea...
thoughts?
"Thanks for suggesting that that wasn't a literal possibility, but how can one really be sure?"
Because Yun, like Lereah before him, continues to look--prematurely--for a bottom.
From Comrade Swan @ 1:35
31 Oct 2008, 2306 hrs IST, REUTERS
The notional amount of outstanding CDS decreased by 12 percent in the first six months of 2008 to $54.6 trillion from $62.2 trillion, due largely to compression, said ISDA.
Subsequent efforts would bring the outstanding amount to about $47 billion
Wait, what?!
We will not have hit bottom until mp lays off Conjure Bag.
Though then CB may give back to the community by "volunteering" at the local SPCA.
General Motors (GM 4.10, +0.07) stated that the $13.4 billion it is receiving from the U.S. government are consistent to cover the downside scenario envisioned for the next three months
envision? nice choice of language. I'm not aware of a time when the government's vision has been clear on anything.
Dirk, no problem with the basic concept, but I did have an odd thought regarding the pain of getting there.
If real PCE were to stay essentially flat while PDI, I/E and Gov portions were to increase (for an overall increase in GDP) I'm not sure there'd be quite as much pain. Yes, that's not the most likely thing to have happen, but it is a route to PCE becoming a reduced portion of the whole with less pain overall.
Absorption Identities
thanks for the joe the plumber, uh um i mean joe the reporter link
i liked his last comment
"reporters shouldnt be allowed to report on the war because you guys only get part of the story" (words to that effect
i get it your not getting told "my" truth or the facts as I believe them so you should get nothing.
Sounds like he should go back to plumbing
To my mind, 70% and a near zero savings rate is unsustainable
I'm always shocked at how long the foolishness actually continues. To paraphrase Buffett - in any economic cycle there are three types of investor, the innovator, the imitator and the idiot
I posit that the cycles run so unexpectedly long because we have lots of idiots.
Latest on EU gas supplies:
Gazprom says Ukraine creating new gas crisis
Mon Jan 12, 2009 1:34pm EST
MOSCOW, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom (GAZP.MM) accused Ukraine of creating a fresh crisis over gas transit to Europe on Monday.
Gazprom said Ukraine was creating new problems by demanding Russia pay for "technical gas" -- the huge volumes of the fuel required to restore pressure in the pipeline system before supplies can resume.
Gazprom says Ukraine creating new gas crisis
| Reuters
Ripple and second order effects - some "people on the street" quotes in different affected countries:
Europeans 'afraid of tomorrow'
BBC NEWS | Europe | Europeans 'afraid of tomorrow'
Because Yun, like Lereah before him, continues to look--prematurely--for a bottom.
mp | 01.12.09 - 2:16 pm | #
2 bottoms in bed together doesnt make for much actio
Re: ... continues to look--prematurely--for a bottom
"2 bottoms in bed together doesnt make for much action"
Conjure says, "BWAHAHAHA!"
"That's good. Very good."
Two bottoms do not make one top.
I like to call it "Double-Down Economics".
ac | 01.12.09 - 1:01 pm |
Seriously, you need to tradmark that.
Fed gov Kroszner resigns after Democrats block reappointment
Fed gov Kroszner resigns after Democrats block reappointment - MarketWatch
cant we all just get along:)
In the case of Keynesian spending arguments it is essentially the same thing - lack of aggregate income in relation to aggregate debt.
ac | 01.12.09 - 1:53 pm | #
Increase money supply & velocity via Keynesian stimulus and you increase income for SOMEBODY... may not be who the politicians want to target but more and faster moving money means SOMEBODY is making more. Plus even if the debt increases so do the net assets (by definition)... but again the person/organization getting the assets isn't necessarily the same person/organization responsible for the debt. But the net aggregate is a wash.
We will borrow and spend until forces we don't control make us stop
Rather than actually borrow & spend, we can quantitatively (dis)ease & spend.
The only view from the bottom is the top?
Increase money supply & velocity via Keynesian stimulus and you increase income for SOMEBODY... may not be who the politicians want to target but more and faster moving money means SOMEBODY is making more.
True, but our economy's NX drain sure does foreigners happy.
I like to call it "Double-Down Economics".
ac | 01.12.09 - 1:01 pm |
Seriously, you need to tradmark that.
I'm o free online attorney, here yah go:
® ©
No charge!
True, but our economy's NX drain sure does foreigners happy.
wheres olive | 01.12.09 - 2:27 pm | #
We are on the same page... regarding BOTH who makes the money and who remains responsible for the debt. As a result stimulating a consumer response from a society that imports a large part of it's consumption paid for with debt it is responsible for smacks of stupidity. Targeted fiscal spending [on stuff more likely to stay in country] is better but even then the problem is the multiplier effect - if a lot of that flies offshore then it isn't a lot better.
There is no easy way out.
A small decrease in personal consumption has magnifiers, "knock-on effects," if you will.
Even a decrease of less than 5-10% will have large effects as the ripples spread.
If consumption actually falls by 10%, look out below.
And I am increasingly afraid that the vicious rise in unemployment has all but ensured such a drop in consumption, in the aggregate.
Many parts of the country are already running extremely high unemployment (see, eg, Mich., Oh, etc.) and a large amount of the money that is being spent in these areas is simply tax money that is being redistributed.
Wealth generation has slowed, and is beginning to dry up.
ac wrote
To me it looks just like a gambler who gets in over his head and only sees one possible solution.
I like to call it "Double-Down Economics".
ac | 01.12.09 - 1:01 pm | #
ac
you and i disagree ffrom time to time
im an obama supporter
but i must admit i adhere your view
what this incoming administration is attempting to do
(all-be-it applying the capital hopefully to productive means rather than financial services paper profits...0
is none the less very much like a gambler doubling down...you are right
i am very worried and see financial armageddon all around me
I admire Yves for understanding blame assessment is important.
"Why is it that economics is a Teflon discipline, seemingly unable to admit or recognize its errors?"
Why So Little Self-Recrimination Among Economists? « naked capitalism
[popeye's stops writes:
We did our job well]
You're not kidding. I hope he can afford a can of spinache before this run at the lows is over.
LAS VEGAS SANDS CORP and Vegas feeling the Postmortem XMAS Blues and separation anxiety with cash burn and no income. This could be a good time for Yun and Lereah to do a honeymoon vacation and promotional tour?
Ha!
That was a typo in the original Reuters post. Have corrected it.
Thanks
asl hearts lenin writes:
From Comrade Swan @ 1:35
31 Oct 2008, 2306 hrs IST, REUTERS
The notional amount of outstanding CDS decreased by 12 percent in the first six months of 2008 to $54.6 trillion from $62.2 trillion, due largely to compression, said ISDA.
Subsequent efforts would bring the outstanding amount to about $47 billion
Wait, what?!
asl hearts lenin | 01.12.09 - 2:16 pm | #
Why the goal is to restore trust:
... "No matter what process is taken, they always go through a middleman," advises BBC Somali service analyst Said Musa. "And trust is at the heart of everything."
BBC NEWS | Africa | How do you pay a pirate's ransom?
How do you pay a pirate's ransom?
Wealth generation has slowed, and is beginning to dry up.
Wealth generation has reversed not just slowed. We now have a generation without wealth.
Citizen Jacked writes:
Anyone name a single leader in this country who has credibility and the interests of the citizenry as their motivation?
james Webb...was reagan sec of navy, i think, and now junior senator va...is a stuanch defender of the middle class and the constitution...a sterling guy
there are others...
richard lugar of indianna...spoke the truth to power, stemmed an un-necessary us invasion in phillipines
i agree there are too few
down goes frazier
and thus the system (starting last week) demonstrates it's "need" for it.
Such a casino...
Ciao
MS
Janosik(Unrated) writes:
bond panic, currency stability, massive bank failures...
Bank failures are a thing of the past. A least, banks of any size. Little banks will fail hither and yon for a bit.
There are Treasuries and there is the dollar, and they are basically the same thing. Dollar blocks, dollar streams, oh the things you can do with them.
I imagine the main event will be materializing in that direction anon.
ps
citizen jacked
wiki leon panetta...you will be impressed...a good guy
You could add Mike Gravel to that list, yeah he's a grumpy old dude, but he walked the walk and has good reason to be grumpy.
Stocks Slide as Falling Oil Hurts Energy Companies- AP
Boo hoo. My heart bleeds oil for oil companies.
ac wrote
To me it looks just like a gambler who gets in over his head and only sees one possible solution.
I like to call it "Double-Down Economics".
ac | 01.12.09 - 1:01 pm | #
ac
you and i disagree ffrom time to time
im an obama supporter
but i must admit i adhere your view
what this incoming administration is attempting to do
(all-be-it applying the capital hopefully to productive means rather than financial services paper profits...0
is none the less very much like a gambler doubling down...you are right
i am very worried and see financial armageddon all around me
mock turtle | 01.12.09 - 2:33 pm |
Well then we probably don't disagree that much.
I don't really have that much against Obama. I think we could have done much worse than him.
I just think he's been given an impossible task.
Criticizing somebody trying to come up with solutions to an impossible situation is kind of like shooting at ducks in a barrel.
That said, I'm the kind of person who thinks that barrels full of ducks were made to be shot at.
"We now have a generation without wealth."
uh oh, boomer bashing session incoming!
Angry Saver writes:
ac,
I just don't get this all out belief that government spending will improve our eCONomy.
Bush doubled the national debt from ~ $5 trillion to ~ $10 trillion. The results were disastrous.
How is a supersized Bush plan suddenly going to cause prosperity to appear? I just don't see it.
it depends on what the money is spent on
eating seed corn is a bad idea
debt spent toward increasing productive capacity could, should help
im not optimistic but see NO other choice besides holding hands singing kumbaya as we go over the waterfall
hank to ppt: call the doctor, my bazooka has lasted longer than 4 hours
Increase money supply & velocity via Keynesian stimulus and you increase income for SOMEBODY...
Well the tech bubble and housing bubble certainly helped somebody...
Both LODM on Fleck's site and Bill King have opined that they expect a huge collateral injection, in the 1 trillion range....
Agree with that concept, who knows what the scale will be.
Will say this though, the 2 Trillon in collateral that Bloomberg and Fox are suing the Federales for info on?
No way is it 2 trillion baby....
Some of it has gone to money heaven and it ain't never comin' back...
1 currency soon [yogi] writes:
Comrade Swan what happens when counterparties are left begging for their bailout money? (See Sen. Levin (D., MI) subpoena reference above?
1 currency soon [yogi] | 01.12.09 - 1:58 pm | #
Anybody in the Eurozone? The text of the story is a whole lot less definite than the headline...
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 1:31 pm | #
This is from the Wiener Zeitung:
Gazprom will deliver again starting Tuesday
Gazprom will ab Dienstag wieder liefern
Der russische Energieversorger Gazprom will die unterbrochenen Gaslieferungen nach Europa über die Ukraine am Dienstag zwischen 8 und 10 Uhr europäischer Zeit wieder aufnehmen. ...
bearly writes:
I hope he can afford a can of spinache before this run at the lows is over.
I took my loss a little before 10 this morning; and, yes, it hurt.
p.s. there is no "e" at the end of either spinach or potato.
NO other choice besides holding hands singing kumbaya as we go over the waterfall
I think we'll see a resurgence in communes, neo-hippies.
rps wrote:
The USA hasn't been a democracy for quite awhile. USA has been an oligarchy since the Supreme Court selected GWB as the prez.
You of course must be referring to the stolen election of 1960 where the same chigago mob that pushed Obama our furhrer elect sole the election for kennedy?
Or is it the current "count until lyou get it right" crowd in Minnesota?
According to the Dow, Paulson must be speaking somewhere.
RE,
Thanks - hopefully the gas will start moving again - though the price row still will be unresolved.
Anyone name a single leader in this country who has credibility and the interests of the citizenry as their motivation?
The problem is that the "interests" vary with the observer. Some pols believe that national security is paramount because if our nation is jeopardized, then what good are other rights? Others believe that housing is extremely important, because if individuals don't feel secure with their most important asset, then why would they spend on anything. YMMV
"Or is it the current "count until lyou get it right" "
funny how much republicans dislike that whole vote-counting thing... less funny is the manner in which coleman "won" that seat in the first place
bgates writes:
"We now have a generation without wealth."
uh oh, boomer bashing session incoming!
To you, Sir, I say:
"Never before have so many squandered so much and left so little (for future generations)."
If the shoe --or Birkenstock-- fits, wear it with pride, man.
p.s. there is no "e" at the end of either spinach or potato.
Popeye | 01.12.09 - 2:46 pm | #
Popeye, perhaps bearly was admiring your penache....
Speed writes:
According to the Dow, Paulson must be speaking somewhere.
Speed | 01.12.09 - 2:48 pm
he was earlier - when Bartiromo discussed swimming naked with him
Video - CNBC.com
Re: According to the Dow, Paulson must be speaking somewhere.
Yah, he is:
Government shouldn't tell banks how to lend: Paulson
Government shouldn't tell banks how to lend: Paulson
| Reuters
"Citizen Jacked writes:
Anyone name a single leader in this country who has credibility and the interests of the citizenry as their motivation?"
NE Adrian Smith R, The others are one blue troll and new Republican to replace a blue Republican. Not much clear thinking here.
I heard that comment earlier anonymous and almost choked. Yeah, let the banks lend to whomever they want...that's worked out well so far...
"Never before have so many squandered so much and left so little (for future generations)."
just removing the temptation
What about a tax rebate for people who didn't overpay for real estate and then a taxcut for people that overpaid for houses?
maybe this is why krozner is being replaced by obama on the fed board of governors
from wiki
Kroszner was a member of the President's Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) from 2001 to 2003. While at the CEA, he was heavily involved in formulating the policy response to corporate governance scandals, as well as in advising on a wide range of domestic and international issues, including banking and financial regulation, government-sponsored enterprises, pension reform, corporate governance reform, ...snip
As an economist, he was widely praised for his astute research, especially regarding banking and financial regulation. He is a student of the Chicago School of economics
maybe his strong dereg disposition was not harmonious with where obama wants to go...guessing
what is the duration of the net derivatives exposure?
these default protection insurance contracts surely have and expiration date.
are some of them like options that largely expire worthless?
"wear it with pride, man"
a bit of snark in terms of a running meme here...
i've been a leading propagator of said meme, dryfly accuses me of bigotry, etc
President George W. Bush took his last official Air Force One flight on Saturday to Virginia for a ceremony to place a warship named after his father into active duty.
Here's one of the individuals that will sure to be confirmed to the FRB. Not sure who the other will be.
Not Found
haven't closed below 8500 since Dec 29
"Anyone name a single leader in this country who has credibility and the interests of the citizenry as their motivation?"
Chuck Hagel...but he's retiring.
[I took my loss a little before 10 this morning; and, yes, it hurt.
Popeye]
Long/Short - Hedge - Insure. Swinging for the fences every at bat yields a lot of strikeouts.
"sure to be confirmed to the FRB"
why bother with the board? isn't this effectively a dictatorship run by the nyfed?
incidentally, friedman's 'monetary history' had an interesting aside about how the nyfed also seized effective power in the early 30s from what was a somewhat diverse, squabbling group.
Hagel? I am glad to see him go, surprised he wasn't on the Obama ticket. Waiting to see if he gets an appointment.
"Swinging for the fences every at bat yields a lot of strikeouts."
i was just wondering about jack cust the other day
Nightstand cowboy is going to be gathering dust.
Swinging for the fences every at bat yields a lot of strikeouts.
bearly | 01.12.09 - 2:58 pm |
Yeah but sometimes it gets you into the Hall of Fame, just heard Jim Rice made it in today...
Gary
i like your picks for politicians who are true
i esp like ron paul AND dennis kuicinich even though in many ways they are politically from opposite ends
both guys are straight shooters
"Anybody in the Eurozone? The text of the story is a whole lot less definite than the headline"
I'm hearing its all about rights to construct new pipelines, allowing Puntin & Company more control in the future
Hate to admit, Putins licking his lips for sure
bearly writes: Swinging for the fences every at bat yields a lot of strikeouts.
True; but, every once in a while, I like to take a shot.
Don't know about expiration. I believe many are structured like insurance, with premiums every so often.
"but sometimes it gets you into the Hall of Fame"
or, in the case of Bobby Bonds, probably gets you a few free drinks
Ot-
Obese Americans now outweigh the merely overweight
Obese Americans now outweigh the merely overweight
| Reuters
i look forward to a slimmer america....depression is going to wreak havoc on jenny craig, nutrisystem etc...
pigs play in the mud, hogs get slaughtered...
"...a few ...drinks"
Isn't that where this conversation started ?
ac,
That said, I'm the kind of person who thinks that barrels full of ducks were made to be shot at.
ac
i think the analogy is catching fish in a barrel and shooting ducks in a row. If you can get a bunch of ducks in a barrel, well, ya already got'em, why shoot'em?
Bernie Sanders comes to mind.. NO party...
\t Yoringe | \t \t \t \t01.12.09 - 1:54 pm | #
Yoringe | 01.12.09 - 1:54 pm | #
I thought he sold out his party for a committee chairmanship-
can i go again?
"Anyone name a single leader in this country who has credibility and the interests of the citizenry as their motivation?"
i would add lincoln chaffee senator, Rhode Island
the only republican to vote against the war in iraq and it cost him an election as the party pulled the rug outfrom under him and he was beaten by sheldon whitehouse
btw...i read that whitehouse father and chaffees father were college room mates many many years ago
see jane there is royalty in america
What confidence problem?
"The firm's current auditors, PricewaterhouseCoopers, have worked with Satyam for about eight years."
LAM | 01.12.09 - 3:01 pm | #
I read some analysis that suggested ultimately Gazprom will end up with an equity stake in Naftogaz and/or the transmission network...
mock turtle writes:
Absorption Identities
thanks for the joe the plumber, uh um i mean joe the reporter link
You are welcome. It says a lot about our media/ society that this guy is given a job as a "reporter" in the first place.
LAM(Unrated) writes:
Hate to admit, Putins licking his lips for sure
He had it all a minute ago. Pacifist Europeans by the energy short and curlies. his only problem was that he was an obvious carnivore. Then he went from Heatmiser to Has-Been in one graceful Acapulco cliff dive.
I mean really, check out that ruble. He was the man a minute ago, then he found out that there is only one thing that sucks more than being an imploded industrial economy, it's being a resource economy that sells things to imploded industrial economies.
Maybe your successor will figure out that a government the ruler doesn't control utterly is a government that is actively opposing his rule. Every penny of corruption in the state is a failure, every right-thinking being should fear the exchequer's audit the the wrath of a manifest god.
You, Vladimir, you let your feudal underlings buy glitzy dachas with their part of the skim. Vladimir now looks even dumber than an American, don't wish to be him, he's done.