More CRE Woes: Multifamily housing

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"Multi-family housing" is about to take on a whole new meaning.

Or an old meaning, depending on your point of view.

AA -1.16, -0.11 was expected.

I think AA might need a 12-step program.

....what happens to the tenants in an apartment building if the landlord skips town with the rent checks and foreclosure ensues?

AA -1.16, -0.11 was expected.

That can only mean that we're closer to the bottom than analysts expected.

I'm going to buy everything in sight when the market opens tomorrow.

Sorry for the OT so soon in the thread. This was posted late in the last thread.

OT(?):
The bond bubble is an accident waiting to happen The bond vigilantes slumber. As the greatest sovereign bond bubble of all time rolls into 2009, investors are clinging to an implausible assumption that China and Japan will provide enough capital to keep the happy game going for ever. http://tinyurl.com/9yb694

Alcoa's loss is $.28/sh v.s. $.05 expected loss. Not good.

but is alcoa the real economy? i thought citi was

Combining the large need for sign twirlers created by the housing downturn with the traditional need of people in LA to get publicity, we had the West Coast Sign Spinning Championship in December.

Spinners step up moves in a sign of the times - Los Angeles Times

The housing crisis could have been a death knell for Aarrow. About 90% of its business used to come from developers looking for help selling their properties, Kenny said.

But the company went after new businesses in early 2008 when the market started to crash, he said, and it found that advertisers liked the way its spinners grabbed attention in an advertising-saturated world.

"They see you and they see the sweat on your back and the dedication, and they know it's not something you go out there and nonchalantly do," said DiJon Rice, a spinner who won Aarrow's nationwide competition in 2007.

In the last year, Aarrow has promoted luxury apartment buildings, Little Caesars Pizza and mobile phone retailers such as Go Wireless. Aarrow plans to open franchises in five cities and a handful of countries next year....

Kenny said advertisers are looking for a cheap way to get that kind of attention. Aarrow charges $25 an hour and up for its spinners' services. "With the economy slowing down, people are really starting to realize how cost-effective we are," he said.

That's good news for Aarrow, which has seen a 60% rise in applications from prospective spinners this year. Its website crashed a few weeks ago when too many people were trying to click on the jobs section."

You can't make up stuff like this.

I'm going to buy everything in sight when the market opens tomorrow.
ac | 01.12.09 - 4:18 pm | #

You mean as soon as the puts finish opening rotation?   (Do they still do opening rotation now that everything electronic?)

what happens to the tenants in an apartment building if the landlord skips town with the rent checks and foreclosure ensues?

BSR:
Until the complex goes into BK, then the contracts are honored. The tenant is not responsible for the mortgage contract, so the lender can't come after the tenant for arrearage. During BK, the trustee or the DIP can cancel the contracts if he/she wishes.

Caveat: everything but BK is governed by state law, so YMMV.

OT but...any one know whether we can expect any pension fund rebalancing soon? I won't soon forget the massive rally on 10/28/08 attributed to pension funds. Was that a quarterly or an annual rebalancing? If quarterly, are we due for another one soon? If so, will it be pulling money out of equities because there has already been such a big rally? Thanks for any insight.

The bond bubble is an accident waiting to happen

In the past I've gone from being a big bond bull to being more neutral. Now I'm moving more into the "bond bubble" camp because I believe prices are now being artificially supported by government policies that aren't sustainable in the long-term.

That said, it seems that from past experiences it can be several years from the time people start crying "bubble" to the time when it actually bursts.

Simple and elegant solution:

Multi Family Banks!

Wow... is this teh correct?

Fresh data suggest that Japan's economy contracted at a 12pc annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2008...

crossposted from dead thread...

To CBR..

"Every penny of corruption in the state is a failure, every right-thinking being should fear the exchequer's audit the the wrath of a manifest god.

You, Vladimir, you let your feudal underlings buy glitzy dachas with their part of the skim. Vladimir now looks even dumber than an American, don't wish to be him, he's done."

Speaking as the son of parents who grew up under Russian control of Czechoslovakia, I'll say this. The Russians know how the game is played. Slovaks, Russians, and much of eastern Europe and the Balkans have few illusions when it comes to government and the iron fist.

Your intuition in the matter suggests a profound understanding of the regional idiom....
Janosik | 01.12.09 - 4:27 pm | #

....what happens to the tenants in an apartment building if the landlord skips town with the rent checks and foreclosure ensues?
Black Star Ranch | 01.12.09 - 4:17 pm | #

Recently happened in the Houston area (just before Christmas? within the last month or so IIRC), the city government got involved and made some things happen to keep people in the apartments (which would not have otherwise been the case).

US Job Losses Are Worse Than You Think

Jobs Numbers Much Worse Than You Think

The gift that keeps on giving:

Royal Bank of Scotland Plc is the biggest lender to bankrupt chemical maker Lyondell Chemical Co. and may face losses on its $3.47 billion...

The lender inherited the loans after its purchase last year of ABN Amro

For those that don't remember, RBS bought ABN for $100 Billion CASH in 2007.

ac - thats what i heard a few days ago!

Liquidity ....or ... Lubrication?

Fresh data suggest that Japan's economy contracted at a 12pc annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2008...

uh oh

Every house will soon be multifamily .. I started to notice we are seeing multiply family on one lease .

Since someone above already mentioned AA, may I add this "bullshit" comment from analyst Tony Rizzuto of Dahlman-Rose....."AA can always disaggregate from several businesses" whatever the hell that means.

For those of us who don't live in CA, FL, AR, or NV, why should we care?

It seems these four states seem to be the same ones mentioned over and over again with regards to this real estate bubble.

Why were the other 46 states able to practice some self control when it came to cheap, 100% financed loans, but these four states were not?

OT

Bonds Still Best Bet: Hendry:
Video - CNBC.com

Umm, tenants' leases are abrogated in foreclosure. They have essentially no rights against lenders, whatever rights they might've had against the landlord originally.

In MA, multifamilies preceded SFHs downward, probably because of the very visible lack of support for bubble prices in the rent revenue stream.

AA has debt totaling 12x cash. Great ratio going into a huge eCONomic downturn.

Another candidate that will go begging for TARP money?

...just a bit OT:

"Grand Jury Convened in Clemens Case.
The disclosure of the grand jury marks a new stage in the investigation of Roger Clemens, who has been under investigation by the Department of Justice for the past 11 months after he testified before Congress that he had never used performance-enhancing drugs."

Why don't they just leave the guy alone? He's a baseball player! Aren't there any "bad guys" to roast on Wall Street? There's gotta be some bankers around more guilty then him.

Black Star Ranch - He does not give generously to the politios, so he is fair game.

BSR:
Until the complex goes into BK, then the contracts are honored. The tenant is not responsible for the mortgage contract, so the lender can't come after the tenant for arrearage. During BK, the trustee or the DIP can cancel the contracts if he/she wishes.

Caveat: everything but BK is governed by state law, so YMMV.

In my location, even after BK and contracts canceled, the Sheriff will not evict until 90 days after the tenant receives proper notice of eviction.

Janosik(Unrated) writes:
Speaking as the son of parents who grew up under Russian control of Czechoslovakia, I'll say this. The Russians know how the game is played. Slovaks, Russians, and much of eastern Europe and the Balkans have few illusions when it comes to government and the iron fist.

Putin would completely be the master of the game as it is played on the rough courts if he would have built an institution out of Russia and not out of Putin.

Now he's losing some of his edge as the novelty of his approach wears off, the years are piling up on him, and what state institutions he does have, he has been mickey mousing around with to keep himself in the limelight. A+++ as a despot, C- as a king.

tenants leases abrogated in foreclosure...

depends on state and municipal law. Rent control jurisdictions in Cali protect tenants against eviction without cause by the owner of the property, regardless of whether ownership changes.

That's only part of Cali, but it includes some of the biggest rental markets.

Wow. I did not think the bottom dropped out of the aluminum market that fast. What's next for AA, I wonder?

You know, it'd be a great company for an inflationista to invest in... high debt load and a commodity producer makes it doubly benefit from inflation. On the other hand prolonged deflation means AA equity goes to zero.

While I'm here, I propose a viral economic stimulus via increased tipping by those who are still employed/ have assets.

That money is needed, and it will get spent, circulated.

(Elvis mentioned before I did)

I know all about AA and fall. Just a few months ago I was collecting clean and crushed, assembling a big pile of bagged cans for the fabulous price of .62 cents lb. Now they lay unpicked, and that bag of forty pounds is down to $8.80 (.22 cents), and not $24.80.

I've been reading some VERY interesting comments in the renters section of craigslist for my hometown - some pretty ticked off renters who are screaming about rents coming down. There is a real fight brewing out there..

Do you feel the same way about Barry Bonds?

"Do you feel the same way about Barry Bonds?"

I wonder how many dissertations, theories, and all-night finals cramdowns have been achieved with help of thought-enhancing drugs? Are we going to start investigating everyone with an advanced degree?

Leave them alone - they're baseball players. Thank goodness the press didn't expound too much on The Bambino's nightly drunken pub crawls.

On the inverse, though, I guess nothing sells better than sex and celebrities' moral failures.

Let the kids find out on their own.

Everywhere you turn there is just too much stuff.
Every industry seems to have stolen its future markets to feed the fires of the credit boom. The illogic of government exhortation to banks to 'lend more' becomes more humorously obvious every day.
Like it or not (and I actually do like it) we are going to take a 'breather' for a couple of years. The government can pump out all the stimuli it wishes and it will mostly be wasted.

Credit enima is coming writes:
Every house will soon be multifamily .. I started to notice we are seeing multiply family on one lease .
Credit enima is coming | 01.12.09 - 4:36 pm | #

Pssst, some people own their homes and live debt free

Terry writes:
For those of us who don't live in CA, FL, AR, or NV, why should we care?

It seems these four states seem to be the same ones mentioned over and over again with regards to this real estate bubble.

Why were the other 46 states able to practice some self control when it came to cheap, 100% financed loans, but these four states were not?
Terry | 01.12.09 - 4:37 pm | #

Thank you, I was beginning to get down on myself for being debt free

It wasn't only those four states, it was most all states. It was the worst in those four states for different reasons. California because the price to income level were already high, so when the qualifications went to Zero, with the extremely large population, people who could never before afford a home jumped for the chance. This lead to a speculative frenzy. Similar for Florida. AZ and NV were mostly becuse of cheap land and speculation. For AZ there were a lot of hispanics and a lot of retirees/snow birds. I have no clue about NV underlying issues in.

It just kills me that suddenly there is a "surprise" glut of housing - both rental and owned. Now that speculators and flippers no longer own 10 properties apiece, it seems that we didn't really need quite so much housing.

Boggles

I have just never heard anyone say leave Bonds alone, but you hear it a lot about Clemens. Hmmmm.

I'm thinking that there's an opportunity here for squeeqe guys to keep all those twirling signs clean, and shoeshine guys to keep the squeege guys' shoes clean, and apple sellers to feed the bunch of them. Does that add up to 3 million Obama jobs yet?

Got peak civilization?

Terry writes:
For those of us who don't live in CA, FL, AR, or NV, why should we care?

It seems these four states seem to be the same ones mentioned over and over again with regards to this real estate bubble.

Why were the other 46 states able to practice some self control when it came to cheap, 100% financed loans, but these four states were not?

Got peak WOPs?

1 \tCalifornia: 2,209,000 \t

2 \tTexas:\t 1,041,000 \t

3 \tNew York: 489,000 \t

4 \tIllinois:\t 432,000 \t

5 \tFlorida:\t 337,000 \t

6 \tArizona:\t 283,000 \t

7 \tGeorgia:\t 228,000

13 Nevada:\t 101,000 \t

Estimated number of Illegal Immigrants by state. Definition, graph and map.

Got peak civilization?

Applying technical analysis to the Toronto market: thenumberstheydontpublish

Fannie and Freddie continued showing strong earnings in their multi-family portfolio in 2007 and 2008, which helped improve their anemic balance sheets. In early 2008, Fannie and Freddie continued to buy multi-family properties even as banks ceased all multi-family lending and portfolio buys. Why would Fannie and Freddie fund a market that was obviously maxed-out in many regional areas. Their buyer of last resort mentality effectively makes them a lender of last resort when there is no market and banks sell their marginal properties to them. Their actions are exacerbating the residential mortgage problems by growing the 'multi-family' shadow market. I know many markets are seized, but I think the FHLB, Fannie, and Freddie, are distorting the market. As long as these GSE's are an execution channel for banks, the banks will sell their bad assets. Maybe the GSE's need to be wound down unless they are the 'bad bank'.

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