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Well on the plus side, AA's share price means that it can't do too much damage to the DJI at this point! It only took about 6 points out of the DJI today and it fell over 7%!
Nothing quite like having a 1% weighting in an index.
Last week? They announced s 13% staffing cut. That is a BIG cut. You coodanode something was going to hit the fan. I claim a trademark to "youcoodanode." Ha ha.
SRS was up 11.91% today. Is it off on another one of its runs or just a head fake?
As someone who has watched SRS daily for a year, I will just say that trying to time the short term trend in SRS is risky business. That said, I've own a lot of it and expect to be selling it in the next 1-5 months. No idea when that will actually happen though.
All this readjustment of indices in a down market creates a further downside bias e.g. you throw AIG out a $2.00 and bring in a higher priced stock. AIG at $2.00 can do no more damage but the higher priced stock can. Any thoughts
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- To help pay down debt and focus its portfolio on higher-margin offerings, Constellation Brands will sell off about 40 of its lower-end spirits brands to New Orleans-based Sazerac for $334 million, the alcohol behemoth said Monday.
OMG whats to become of champipple? Start hoarding rotgut...
I will just say that trying to time the short term trend in SRS is risky business. That said, I've own a lot of it and expect to be selling it in the next 1-5 months.
12th,
A 1-5 month holding period for SRS is nuts. You can be right and still lose money. In my view, SRS is a day trader tool.
How does a company whose sales fall 1.3billion end up with a P&L swing greater than that? They have no variable costs associated with producing aluminum -clearly not since electricity is a major component
Alcoa is taking it on the chin because of the hit commodities is taking in general, the decline in one if its biggest consumer sectors, the auto industry and the fact that it had to deal with the sudden run up of energy costs, the credit crunch and now the collapse of demand in general in all other consumer market sectors. They maybe a merger target or their cus will make them leaner and meaner to position themselves for a rebound if they can ride out the recession.
silvertoes writes:
I know all about AA and fall. Just a few months ago I was collecting clean and crushed, assembling a big pile of bagged cans for the fabulous price of .62 cents lb. Now they lay unpicked, and that bag of forty pounds is down to $8.80 (.22 cents), and not $24.80.
I posted this on the last thread, but AA is now everywhere.
Meanwhile, Alcoa is still proceeding with new smelter plants in Iceland even though the energy obligation is a huge burden tot he struggling nation. The obligation was of course made by the same folks responsible for privatizing the banks in 2003.
If the Ponzi scheme itself wasn't proof, the fact Madoff was mailing jewels to family under his circumstances was clearly indicative of his pathological instability. The judge -- and the people who got him -- are just begging him to off himself so no one else gets exposed.
power producers, as mentioned earlier this morning, do not build negative demand growth in a market with falling electricity prices into their models
In NC, the Alcoa hydro plants are inexpensive to operate and are a cash cow. Profits may be reduced with decreased pricing, but they will still make money.
GE is so hardup that they've taken to selling their bonds to "retail investors," at unbelievably low interest rates -- about 3% to 5%. No one else will touch them at higher rates.
Bruce,
I meant to explicitly say they will survive, but push a lot of pain down on to power producers as their electricity production mostly comes from Hydro (or geothermal in iceland)
re: SRS -- The Financial Ninja has a great post about this today. I'm not a huge fan of technical analysis, but it has its uses. He points out that IYR has lots of support around 30. SRS has been moving up / IYR has been moving down for 5 days now...I'm hoping for one more day personally but it has already moved up from 49 to 65 in just a few days. The best way to play these ultrashorts is to get 2 or 3 day moves and then take your money and run.
"Does this mean I need to quit recycling my beer cans????"
Hmmm... think this through. It means you won't be getting squat when you go to recycle them. But aluminum is a 'commodity' and some people are predicting a commodity price rise along with a dollar drop. Maybe the best thing to do is to pile them up in the back yard and wait for the price to go up. Think of it as an investment in commodities futures.
Trivia Question: what companies have actually emerged from bankruptcy and actually done well (example: gone on to pay a dividend for a long time).
µΨ | 01.12.09 - 5:12 pm | #
The price of January expiry puts and calls should both rise, as the implied volatility of AA equity price will likely increase...that's my WAG - bearly?
"Now we are two nations rich in resources but bankrupt in solidarity and short on virtues. "
The most precious resources of any community are solidarity and virtue.
Pavel Chichikov | 01.12.09 - 5:18 pm | #
yeah, that's basically what I was getting at....
We will have resources on our land...this is a country with lots of land/ore/fertile ground/human capital...but that's only half of the battle.
But we have turned inward on ourselves, lashing out at the world...and now alienated as we are...we await for a phoenix to emerge from the ashes of a beast consumed with pride.
/cut
that was starting to sound so nice...to bad this is reality
time for everyone to beef up their class consciousness and prepare to charge the enemy
Meanwhile, Alcoa is still proceeding with new smelter plants in Iceland even though the energy obligation is a huge burden tot he struggling nation. The obligation was of course made by the same folks responsible for privatizing the banks in 2003.
anonsdottir | 01.12.09 - 4:59 pm | #
beat me to it. Iceland is so screwed, it's hard to imagine.
I meant no offense. But here is a 6 month chart you should look at.
No offense taken. Say you bought in July or August or september. I see some pretty attractive exit points in the 1-5 month window, don't you?
If SRS doesn't hit $200 in the next 1-5 months, I'll be very surprised. When it does, I expect to be selling into the frenzy. Like i did the last time, except I got out much too early last time.
It is not for everyone. You have to learn to laugh at a 20% daily drop. Takes some getting used to when you are holding a lot of it.
Huge irony - I was just on the phone w/ biz contacts discussing pricing on an aerospace project... it's for a tier one to Boeing & Airbus and we are bidding jobs to make parts... out of aluminum no less. We were asked to buy the material from our usual sources - metal 'service centers' who buy from folks like Alcoa. The service centers are independent companies that inventory stock to ship to us and sometimes cut or laser trim preforms as 'value added'... obviously they make their money from 'mark up'.
Anyway - they have been buying huge amounts of inventory all during the aerospace 'boom' the last few years at premium prices... aerospace was still hot and heavy as late as this fall. Slowing some now.
Spot prices for material for metal are now WAY below the average cost base of the current inventory held in these service centers - so much so that the tier one we are working with now wants us to 'buy direct' under their contract to Alcoa and cut out the service centers altogether. The service centers tell us it will wipe them out... they will go completely bust if we and other customers do that.
For the life of me I can't understand why the service centers didn't hedge but they didn't. Add these guys to the BK and layoff parade... and of course this also means Alcoa will lose some market access as this outlet channel dries up.
Looking at the Yahoo info on AA options, looks like some pretty good volume at the strikes closest to the current price...not sure which way with respect to open interest though. AA: Options for ALCOA INC - Yahoo! Finance
Vancouver seeks charter change to borrow $458 million
BY JEFF LEE, VANCOUVER SUN
JANUARY 12, 2009 2:29 PM
VANCOUVER - Vancouver city council will ask the provincial government to convene an emergency sitting of the legislature to give the city the power to borrow nearly $500 million to finish the Olympic Athletes' Village.
Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson told reporters Monday that civic legislation requires the city to go to city voters to approve capital spending in a referendum.
The city wants the province to change the Vancouver Charter to allow it bypass the referendum requirement. He said the city needs $458 million to finish the village project.
Robertson underscored the urgency of the request, noting that the last $21 million of a $100-million civic loan to the project developer, Millennium Developments, will be exhausted by Feb. 14.
But EHP and KC think that everything will be fine in vancouver thanks to hidden asian and canuck wealth.. ya.. sure..
'Economic tsunami' heading for Canada: Economist
BY JOHN MORRISSY , CANWEST NEWS SERVICEJANUARY 12, 2009 1:01 PM
OTTAWA A "tsunami" is headed for Canada's economic coastlines, one that will deliver harder times than even the downgraded consensus outlook now anticipates, says David Wolf, Merrill Lynch's head Canadian economist and strategist.
"We take no comfort in the fact that the domestic economy and markets looked reasonably resilient for much of 2008, and fear that the dramatic deterioration in the economic data in particular over the past couple of months foretells of yet worse to come," Wolf said in a weekly commentary.
Like an oceanic tsunami that moves largely unseen but culminates in catastrophic waves as it approaches land, those same global financial stresses are now about to wash up on Canada's vulnerable shores, Wolf said.
"Canada's coastline looks to us to be highly vulnerable, with the ultimate devastation wrought by the global financial and economic tsunami likely to be extensive," Wolf said,
pretty flowery prose for a non-direct quotation...
"like undulating crescendos of syphilitic diarrhea, these ill tidings of impoverishing impacts may well render riddled the most unctuous of umbrellas..."
I almost puked up my EEV down at 43!! thank God I didn't. Does anyone hold these ( SRS, EEV, SKF, UYG) for long periods? I wouldn't see why...these are Nantucket Sleigh ride vehicles.
I ain't selling EEV anytime soon...certainly not until after earnings season...we got much blood to let here....
OT Full Disclosure:
1000 EEV
300 SDS
250 QID
100 SRS
100 SKF
800 GLD
13000 BAC (restricted)
There will be much more pain for months to come, no selling here, but moving up stops on strength is advised on the past weeks performance
"But we have turned inward on ourselves, lashing out at the world."
I'm a writer, CJ. These days that means a stranger in a strange land.
SHE SAID
An old library, books of all sizes, precious and rare
Old bindings well-braced, unblemished and strong
Old shelves persevering, un-warped and upholding
A fine small library, precious and rare
Safe out of sight and injurys way
A few small rooms, tight, well-proportioned
A farmhouse, perhaps, or an old monastery
It can be either or both of these things
Well-knit against climate, cold through the winter
I would like very much, she said, said the lady,
Your work here as well
It will be preserved
The world is a farm
And the crop is prayer
Your work is a prayer
What you sing for love
Do the math, Market cap is less than estimated embedded losses....
Insolvent pot calls kettle
Posted by Stacy-Marie Ishmael on Jan 12 20:18
FT Alphaville
Citigroups Keith Horowitz, knocked 11 per cent off Bank of Americas shares with his forecast of a $3.6bn fourth-quarter loss (or 75 cents a share), a mark to market loss of $3bn, and a dividend cut to 5 cents a share from 32 cents.
Previously, Horowitz was expecting a profit of 2 cents a share, while the consensus is for a Q4 profit of 21 cents a share.
But heres the kicker:
With $55 bil of charges taken so far, we estimate Bank of America is 33% through the cycle. By looking at cumulative losses and comparing them to charges taken, we can estimate how far along we are into this cycle. Based on our estimates, BAC has $165 billion of embedded credit losses on its balance sheet, of which it has taken about 33% of the hit either through the loan loss provision or the purchase accounting marks related to CFC.
BondsOfSteel writes:
The BAC chart looks so bad. There's got to be some value in there
BondsOfSteel | 01.12.09 - 9:02 pm | #
first
We need a tin-foil czar.
rats
Of course I didn't RTFA. what fun would that be?
La Loca ?
Somebody tell me that "this is all priced in" to the market. Please. Need a giggle.
Why is Alcoa stock halted?
So which is it?
MarketWatch and Bloomberg say 1.49
Cavuto Fox says 1.18
Maria CNBC says 0.28
????
i'll be back for uym again under 10
Maybe they should make the TARP out of aluminum foil?
Well on the plus side, AA's share price means that it can't do too much damage to the DJI at this point! It only took about 6 points out of the DJI today and it fell over 7%!
Nothing quite like having a 1% weighting in an index.
Rally time!! Woo!
Last week? They announced s 13% staffing cut. That is a BIG cut. You coodanode something was going to hit the fan. I claim a trademark to "youcoodanode." Ha ha.
SRS was up 11.91% today. Is it off on another one of its runs or just a head fake?
Alcoa can't wait (for a bailout perhaps)
Does this mean I need to quit recycling my beer cans????
Turn to face the strange, ch-ch-ch-chANGes, you little rock-n-rollah!
Is this the beginning of the slippery slope, or have I just arrived late?
SRS was up 11.91% today. Is it off on another one of its runs or just a head fake?
As someone who has watched SRS daily for a year, I will just say that trying to time the short term trend in SRS is risky business. That said, I've own a lot of it and expect to be selling it in the next 1-5 months. No idea when that will actually happen though.
So which is it?
$1.49 if you include the "one-time" restructuring and goodwill impairment charges.
$0.28 for operating losses.
Sometimes, when you try to kick the can down the road, the can kicks back.
LOL! At least we finished off the lows of the day!
Somebody tell me that "this is all priced in" to the market. Please. Need a giggle.
\t Bob Dobbs
This was their kitchen sink quarter. Q109 they'll be flying high again. I think that's how it goes.
Alcoa is suffering due to TARPal funnel syndrome (many dow 30 type stocks are suffering from it as I type)
Does the conjure clock have half-seconds?
Same thing is going to happen to the Swedish Boliden.
The story of aluminum (or "from the dirt you came and to the dirt back shall you go)
there are 2 major aluminum producers left (mining, smelting, manufacturing, recycling)
Rusal and the recently mergered Alcoa
I wouldn't worry too much about buying their bonds going into a bankruptcy
the walkaway nugget is that the power they produce /purchase is available to dump on the power grid
power producers, as mentioned earlier this morning, do not build negative demand growth in a market with falling electricity prices into their models
for perspective, this will have a bigger impact than the letters of credit story yves smith misinterpreted last fall
"JP Morgan pushes up earnings release to Thursday"
Get that TARP while it's HOT!
JP Morgan pushes up earnings release to Thursday - MarketWatch
CR...you seeing the 3.75% GMAC CD ad in they skyscraper unit???
All this readjustment of indices in a down market creates a further downside bias e.g. you throw AIG out a $2.00 and bring in a higher priced stock. AIG at $2.00 can do no more damage but the higher priced stock can. Any thoughts
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- To help pay down debt and focus its portfolio on higher-margin offerings, Constellation Brands will sell off about 40 of its lower-end spirits brands to New Orleans-based Sazerac for $334 million, the alcohol behemoth said Monday.
OMG whats to become of champipple? Start hoarding rotgut...
I will just say that trying to time the short term trend in SRS is risky business. That said, I've own a lot of it and expect to be selling it in the next 1-5 months.
12th,
A 1-5 month holding period for SRS is nuts. You can be right and still lose money. In my view, SRS is a day trader tool.
Marc Faber has said shorting 10 yr treasury is a deal for 2009 ( I do not have a link).
I may buy some PST, what you guys think, is treasury in a bubble?
How does a company whose sales fall 1.3billion end up with a P&L swing greater than that? They have no variable costs associated with producing aluminum -clearly not since electricity is a major component
Aloca ?
Is that Hawaiian?
Alcoa is taking it on the chin because of the hit commodities is taking in general, the decline in one if its biggest consumer sectors, the auto industry and the fact that it had to deal with the sudden run up of energy costs, the credit crunch and now the collapse of demand in general in all other consumer market sectors. They maybe a merger target or their cus will make them leaner and meaner to position themselves for a rebound if they can ride out the recession.
silvertoes writes:
I know all about AA and fall. Just a few months ago I was collecting clean and crushed, assembling a big pile of bagged cans for the fabulous price of .62 cents lb. Now they lay unpicked, and that bag of forty pounds is down to $8.80 (.22 cents), and not $24.80.
I posted this on the last thread, but AA is now everywhere.
crazyvermonter - it's been explained above. Goodwill impairment and restructuring charges from past acquisitions/JVs.
and it's trading higher in after hours up more than 2%
+3%
Because this must be the bottom
Anyone with the time and interest, their conference call starts in a few minutes...
Expired
Meanwhile, Alcoa is still proceeding with new smelter plants in Iceland even though the energy obligation is a huge burden tot he struggling nation. The obligation was of course made by the same folks responsible for privatizing the banks in 2003.
If the Ponzi scheme itself wasn't proof, the fact Madoff was mailing jewels to family under his circumstances was clearly indicative of his pathological instability. The judge -- and the people who got him -- are just begging him to off himself so no one else gets exposed.
I think this ruling is absolutely wild.
power producers, as mentioned earlier this morning, do not build negative demand growth in a market with falling electricity prices into their models
In NC, the Alcoa hydro plants are inexpensive to operate and are a cash cow. Profits may be reduced with decreased pricing, but they will still make money.
are just begging him to off himself so no one else gets exposed.
On the Clock | 01.12.09 - 4:59 pm | #
(sarcasm)Yup, it will surely be self-inflicted suicide... (end sarcasm)
Does this mean tin foil is going to get cheaper?
GE is so hardup that they've taken to selling their bonds to "retail investors," at unbelievably low interest rates -- about 3% to 5%. No one else will touch them at higher rates.
"Alcoa Can't Wait for Tomorrow"
YouTube - "Alcoa Can't Wait" - 2008
Really now ?
Bruce,
I meant to explicitly say they will survive, but push a lot of pain down on to power producers as their electricity production mostly comes from Hydro (or geothermal in iceland)
A 1-5 month holding period for SRS is nuts. You can be right and still lose money. In my view, SRS is a day trader tool.
Like I've said, I've been watching SRS for a year on a daily basis. You want to day trade it, go ahead. Not for me.
There are a lot of things you can be right about these days and lose money. This is my personal favorite way to be right.
crazyvermonter writes:
All this readjustment of indices in a down market Any thoughts
Yeah, my crazy thoughts:
How many stocks now in the Dow were there 70 years ago?
Replace the weak and losers with winners.
This makes stock indexes like the Dow and their charts and the chartists that follow them a joke IMHO.
Vote to release TARP V-deux on Thurs. JPM announced it mives up its earnings release to premkt Thurs.
Coincidence ?
Too bad they sunk all those billion$ in the Rio Tinto stake...
They're just not putting enough aluminum in new houses these days.
Meanwhile the O.C. has a 2 year supply of million dollar houses for sale:
O.C. has 2-year supply of million-dollar homes for sale - Lansner on Real Estate : The Orange County Register
Janosik now to be "Comrade Janosik"
thank you..
Also, CBR if you're still reading this.
The Russian oligarchs have done what the American oligarchs have done....
...used the wealth of a people to run a mafia around them.
Now we are two nations rich in resources but bankrupt in solidarity and short on virtues. It's every man for himself.
Too bad they sunk all those billion$ in the Rio Tinto stake...
The Community Reinvestment Act made the banks lend money to them...
Vote to release TARP V-deux on Thurs. JPM announced it mives up its earnings release to premkt Thurs.
Coincidence ?
bearly | 01.12.09 - 5:06 pm | #
Should make for another intersting opex, no?
Trivia Question: what companies have actually emerged from bankruptcy and actually done well (example: gone on to pay a dividend for a long time).
$0.28 for operating losses.
Basel Too | 01.12.09 - 4:45 pm | #
vs. consensus expectations of -$0.10
Trivia Question: what companies have actually emerged from bankruptcy and actually done well (example: gone on to pay a dividend for a long time).
Pretty much every US freight railroad, for one example.
"Now we are two nations rich in resources but bankrupt in solidarity and short on virtues. "
The most precious resources of any community are solidarity and virtue.
Anybody going to listen in on the Roubini/Bremmer call tomorrow?
re: SRS -- The Financial Ninja has a great post about this today. I'm not a huge fan of technical analysis, but it has its uses. He points out that IYR has lots of support around 30. SRS has been moving up / IYR has been moving down for 5 days now...I'm hoping for one more day personally but it has already moved up from 49 to 65 in just a few days. The best way to play these ultrashorts is to get 2 or 3 day moves and then take your money and run.
"Does this mean I need to quit recycling my beer cans????"
Hmmm... think this through. It means you won't be getting squat when you go to recycle them. But aluminum is a 'commodity' and some people are predicting a commodity price rise along with a dollar drop. Maybe the best thing to do is to pile them up in the back yard and wait for the price to go up. Think of it as an investment in commodities futures.
Trivia Question: what companies have actually emerged from bankruptcy and actually done well (example: gone on to pay a dividend for a long time).
µΨ | 01.12.09 - 5:12 pm | #
Texaco, now part of Chevro
12th,
I meant no offense. But here is a 6 month chart you should look at.
SPDR DJ REIT ETF ETF Chart - Yahoo! Finance
[Should make for another intersting opex, no?
citizen energyecon ]
Yeah, either side of the Jan expiry is gonna shoot up in the AM. Lucky if you picked that up today.
Oh yeah and this:
Dow Jones INDUSTRIAL Average.
Ha, it includes Walmart and McDonalds.
Industrial my ..
(Rumor is Citi and Alcoa to be replaced with Family Dollar and PayDay Advance)
Bearly, what do you mean either side?
[Bearly, what do you mean either side?
will ]
Puts and calls should get a boost since there's now additional uncertainty about the shares ahead of expiry.
will,
The price of January expiry puts and calls should both rise, as the implied volatility of AA equity price will likely increase...that's my WAG - bearly?
ok, i coulda figured that out.
"Now we are two nations rich in resources but bankrupt in solidarity and short on virtues. "
The most precious resources of any community are solidarity and virtue.
Pavel Chichikov | 01.12.09 - 5:18 pm | #
yeah, that's basically what I was getting at....
We will have resources on our land...this is a country with lots of land/ore/fertile ground/human capital...but that's only half of the battle.
But we have turned inward on ourselves, lashing out at the world...and now alienated as we are...we await for a phoenix to emerge from the ashes of a beast consumed with pride.
/cut
that was starting to sound so nice...to bad this is reality
time for everyone to beef up their class consciousness and prepare to charge the enemy
Meanwhile, Alcoa is still proceeding with new smelter plants in Iceland even though the energy obligation is a huge burden tot he struggling nation. The obligation was of course made by the same folks responsible for privatizing the banks in 2003.
anonsdottir | 01.12.09 - 4:59 pm | #
beat me to it. Iceland is so screwed, it's hard to imagine.
I meant no offense. But here is a 6 month chart you should look at.
No offense taken. Say you bought in July or August or september. I see some pretty attractive exit points in the 1-5 month window, don't you?
If SRS doesn't hit $200 in the next 1-5 months, I'll be very surprised. When it does, I expect to be selling into the frenzy. Like i did the last time, except I got out much too early last time.
It is not for everyone. You have to learn to laugh at a 20% daily drop. Takes some getting used to when you are holding a lot of it.
Huge irony - I was just on the phone w/ biz contacts discussing pricing on an aerospace project... it's for a tier one to Boeing & Airbus and we are bidding jobs to make parts... out of aluminum no less. We were asked to buy the material from our usual sources - metal 'service centers' who buy from folks like Alcoa. The service centers are independent companies that inventory stock to ship to us and sometimes cut or laser trim preforms as 'value added'... obviously they make their money from 'mark up'.
Anyway - they have been buying huge amounts of inventory all during the aerospace 'boom' the last few years at premium prices... aerospace was still hot and heavy as late as this fall. Slowing some now.
Spot prices for material for metal are now WAY below the average cost base of the current inventory held in these service centers - so much so that the tier one we are working with now wants us to 'buy direct' under their contract to Alcoa and cut out the service centers altogether. The service centers tell us it will wipe them out... they will go completely bust if we and other customers do that.
For the life of me I can't understand why the service centers didn't hedge but they didn't. Add these guys to the BK and layoff parade... and of course this also means Alcoa will lose some market access as this outlet channel dries up.
The beat goes on.
Looking at the Yahoo info on AA options, looks like some pretty good volume at the strikes closest to the current price...not sure which way with respect to open interest though.
AA: Options for ALCOA INC - Yahoo! Finance
And so it begins..
Vancouver seeks charter change to borrow $458 million
BY JEFF LEE, VANCOUVER SUN
JANUARY 12, 2009 2:29 PM
VANCOUVER - Vancouver city council will ask the provincial government to convene an emergency sitting of the legislature to give the city the power to borrow nearly $500 million to finish the Olympic Athletes' Village.
Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson told reporters Monday that civic legislation requires the city to go to city voters to approve capital spending in a referendum.
The city wants the province to change the Vancouver Charter to allow it bypass the referendum requirement. He said the city needs $458 million to finish the village project.
Robertson underscored the urgency of the request, noting that the last $21 million of a $100-million civic loan to the project developer, Millennium Developments, will be exhausted by Feb. 14.
Texas state comptroller has biennial revenue estimate in, down $9.1 billion over the next two years:
statesman.com
But EHP and KC think that everything will be fine in vancouver thanks to hidden asian and canuck wealth.. ya.. sure..
'Economic tsunami' heading for Canada: Economist
BY JOHN MORRISSY , CANWEST NEWS SERVICEJANUARY 12, 2009 1:01 PM
OTTAWA A "tsunami" is headed for Canada's economic coastlines, one that will deliver harder times than even the downgraded consensus outlook now anticipates, says David Wolf, Merrill Lynch's head Canadian economist and strategist.
"We take no comfort in the fact that the domestic economy and markets looked reasonably resilient for much of 2008, and fear that the dramatic deterioration in the economic data in particular over the past couple of months foretells of yet worse to come," Wolf said in a weekly commentary.
Like an oceanic tsunami that moves largely unseen but culminates in catastrophic waves as it approaches land, those same global financial stresses are now about to wash up on Canada's vulnerable shores, Wolf said.
"Canada's coastline looks to us to be highly vulnerable, with the ultimate devastation wrought by the global financial and economic tsunami likely to be extensive," Wolf said,
"Like an oceanic tsunami "
pretty flowery prose for a non-direct quotation...
"like undulating crescendos of syphilitic diarrhea, these ill tidings of impoverishing impacts may well render riddled the most unctuous of umbrellas..."
Who gives a flock about Vancouver? ZZZzzzz......
Anonymous writes:
Who gives a flock about Vancouver? ZZZzzzz......
Me, bastage. I hear it is a nice city.
I don't.. but it will be fun to watch. There are few things as entertaining as watching delusional people hang themselves..
//Who gives a flock about Vancouver? ZZZzzzz......
Anonymous | 01.12.09 - 5:46 pm | #//
As a tourist- yes. As a resident- no (unless you have drunk the "most desirable city" koolaid).
//Me, bastage. I hear it is a nice city.
Comrade Reynolds | 01.12.09 - 5:48 pm | #//
I almost puked up my EEV down at 43!! thank God I didn't. Does anyone hold these ( SRS, EEV, SKF, UYG) for long periods? I wouldn't see why...these are Nantucket Sleigh ride vehicles.
I ain't selling EEV anytime soon...certainly not until after earnings season...we got much blood to let here....
Why we hatin' on "the Couver"? Nice spot.
anyone hold these ( SRS, EEV, SKF, UYG
I typically hold them for a few months unless they go up 20% the first few days I buy them. I have both EEV and SRS.
OT Full Disclosure:
1000 EEV
300 SDS
250 QID
100 SRS
100 SKF
800 GLD
13000 BAC (restricted)
There will be much more pain for months to come, no selling here, but moving up stops on strength is advised on the past weeks performance
[citizen energyecon writes:
Looking at the Yahoo info on AA options]
I was referring to JPM options. I expect a pop on either side.
"13000 BAC (restricted)"
i'd get massively short too if i needed to counteract that one, unless its a very fresh position.
"13000 BAC (restricted)"
And get ready for another haircut to the divy.
i could care less @ dividend...you prob can figure out why I own so much..and why I am short everything
"But we have turned inward on ourselves, lashing out at the world."
I'm a writer, CJ. These days that means a stranger in a strange land.
SHE SAID
An old library, books of all sizes, precious and rare
Old bindings well-braced, unblemished and strong
Old shelves persevering, un-warped and upholding
A fine small library, precious and rare
Safe out of sight and injurys way
A few small rooms, tight, well-proportioned
A farmhouse, perhaps, or an old monastery
It can be either or both of these things
Well-knit against climate, cold through the winter
I would like very much, she said, said the lady,
Your work here as well
It will be preserved
The world is a farm
And the crop is prayer
Your work is a prayer
What you sing for love
\t\t\t\tPavel
\t\t\t\tJanuary 12, 2009
[...you prob can figure out why I own so much]
No, but I'm curious.
MER employee...hard to be so bearish, but my clients appreciate it!
Bearly @ 6:19 he owns so much because he works at BAC
Sorry for the crossing comments ....
I was referring to JPM options. I expect a pop on either side.
bearly | 01.12.09 - 5:56 pm | #
d'oh of course lol
1450 EEV (~49ish). Stops at 43.
The BAC chart looks so bad. There's got to be some value in there
Anonymous Monetarist Recovery Plan
(Just kidding- AM)
The median sale price of new homes sold in November was $220,400.
The total outstanding inventory is 4.27 million homes.
Spend 941,108,000,000 (941 billion) and buy every available home outstanding and then ...
burn 'em to the ground.
Do the math, Market cap is less than estimated embedded losses....
Insolvent pot calls kettle
Posted by Stacy-Marie Ishmael on Jan 12 20:18
FT Alphaville
Citigroups Keith Horowitz, knocked 11 per cent off Bank of Americas shares with his forecast of a $3.6bn fourth-quarter loss (or 75 cents a share), a mark to market loss of $3bn, and a dividend cut to 5 cents a share from 32 cents.
Previously, Horowitz was expecting a profit of 2 cents a share, while the consensus is for a Q4 profit of 21 cents a share.
But heres the kicker:
With $55 bil of charges taken so far, we estimate Bank of America is 33% through the cycle. By looking at cumulative losses and comparing them to charges taken, we can estimate how far along we are into this cycle. Based on our estimates, BAC has $165 billion of embedded credit losses on its balance sheet, of which it has taken about 33% of the hit either through the loan loss provision or the purchase accounting marks related to CFC.
BondsOfSteel writes:
The BAC chart looks so bad. There's got to be some value in there
BondsOfSteel | 01.12.09 - 9:02 pm | #