On the bright side for guys out there, perhaps this recession will finally put to rest that ridiculous "2 months salary" advertisement for engagement rings.
Except perhaps in Dallas where it seems quite often that "too big" would be considered "just right."
@JimPort - hmm... not sure what that says about (ahem) Big D.
Though I have to think that part of the metro area's poor average credit score has something to do with the size of some of the rings I see quite often.
Wonder if TIF will follow, suspect with smaller bonuses there were fewer lil lite blue boxes under the tree this year. Zale also got only coal for Xmas:
One of my siblings works for ShaneCo in Colorado, in their advertisting and media buying dept. Seems like things have been shaky these past few weeks, but as of now, she'll be keeping her job.
" THE SHANE COMPANY, DIRECT DIAMOND IMPORTERS. JUST OFF ARAPAHOE ROAD ON EMPORIA STREET ONE HALF MILE EAST OF I 25. OPEN EVERY NIGHT MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIL EIGHT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TIL FIVE"
I agree that the "2 months salary" advertisement was ridiculous...
Still, the overall cost of an engagement ring is a small compared to the commitment it symbolizes. (Or... ask anyone who's been divorced about the true cost of the commitment.)
but it doesn't take eons to make good ones. someday the DeBeers monopoly will lose control and Russian manufactured diamonds at 10% the price will own the market. No flaws, either.
For the last year and half Tom Shane of the Shane Co has been killing the air waves with commercials... I think they just opened a new store in San Diego too... Classic!
Interesting bit of color at the end from Chinese media coverage...
EU expects resumption of gas supplies on Tuesday English_Xinhua 2009-01-13 BRUSSELS, Jan. 12 (Xinhua) -- The European Union said here on Monday that it expects Russian gas to resume flowing to Europe on Tuesday morning as Ukraine gave up its unilateral demand attached to the original deal.
"In the morning Ukraine gave up its unilateral declaration and gas supplies will start via Ukraine to the EU tomorrow morning," Czech Industry Minister Martin Riman told a press conference after chairing an EU energy ministers' extraordinary meeting. The Czech Republic now holds the rotating EU presidency.
Energy Commissioner Andris Piebalgs echoed the minister on the same occasion, saying: "We expect that the gas will start to flow at 8:00 (Central Europe time) (0700 GMT) on Tuesday."
[snip] But neither Piebalgs nor Riman seemed relieved by the latest progress. Piebalgs warned that if gas supplies could not resume on Tuesday morning, it would be clear "who to blame" for the cutoff of the supplies. EU expects resumption of gas supplies on Tuesday_English_Xinhua
I don't answer the fascination with GDP, strip out MEW to more historic levels of withdrawal and one comes out with a 8-12% decline in GDP. When that correction is done the economy will start to grow again. Stimulating it with debt takes away from future gains in GDP. Same with the car companies 0% financing took future sales into the present so a higher than normal decline should be expected. I think the best solution to this problem is time.
Hey here's an idea for the next world currency: Diamonds. DeBeers would be happy to keep things 'orderly' in the market. Micro-engraving (with laser) on each stone tells the nominal value.
No one is immune: Attendance at this year's International Consumer Electronics Show could be well below organizer estimates, according to preliminary data released by the Consumer Electronics Association on Sunday.The show, which opened with Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer's keynote last Wednesday night and ran through Sunday, attracted "more than 110,000" people, according to the preliminary estimates. Before CES began the organizers said they expected "more than 130,000" people to attend the show.Fully audited figures are due in about 90 days and could push that estimate up or down. Last year the CEA had estimated 130,000 attendees, but the audit reported 141,150 attendees.
Nemo writes:
Diamonds are pure carbon, the fourth most common element in the universe.
How could so many be convinced they are precious stones? Are people really that stupid? Apparently, they are.
Nemo | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 5:56 pm | #
My wife would literally take a cheese grater to the scrotum of any man who attempted to take her diamonds away from her "sparkly".
I, on the other hand, only hold that kind of love for my video display.
for all your investors(gamblers) going long or short, they have a pretty interesting chart on the similarities of now and the 1929 bear market over at 321gold.com. The thread is For The Record.
Apparantly, mid-April 2009 will be the top of this current bear market rally.
very eery similarities regarding specific dates and percentage losses and gains.
sue - wholesale diamond prices are up 20+% in the last year...can't say that about the future of the USD so maybe there is an arguement to be made here
Get ready to watch a lot of inventory begin to hit all available channels for liquidation.
Ah well, diamonds are only necessary for smuggling. As for the artificial ones, I bet the cost of energy will limit them- from what I read the process is only good if you have a lot of cheap energy, like most fertilizers.
coming out of this down turn do you think it is specialty retailers or department stores that do better. I think it will be department stores. Half empty malls specially if the anchor tenant is not there are not going to attract a lot of traffic. Seems to me that specialty retailers require a lot of traffic.
Stimulus idea: Similar to a corp using percent matching of 401k, why can't the gov't temporarily match a percentage of savings, and w2 and 1099 income for the middle class, combined with business tax cuts?
Wouldn't that be the quickest and most fair, stimulating spending while at the same time help deflate debt (ie: cause mild inflation)?
Waiting for construction spending ain't gonna work since many are BK.
With diamonds, the closer to perfection you get, the more valuable the stone is. Artificially-created stones tend to come out so well that the person looking at it under a super-duper microscope says "It must be artificial, it's too perfect". Therefore, artificially-created stones are likely to destroy the high-end market.
The value of a colored stone lies in the patterns of imperfections, which can be used to determine where in the world it came out of the ground. Artificially-created are very easy to spot under a microscope. They don't replicate the valuable patterns and slight color variations, they just look incredibly sparkly. The high-end markets are not under threat.
I could definitely be wrong on this, but if you're looking at gemstones as a store of value, go for rubies, emeralds, sapphires, etc. Don't go for diamonds. Besides, there are enough REAL diamonds in storage that someone could kill the entire market just by releasing some of them.
you are spot on. Everybody is comparing current times to 1929 but what about 1919-1921. GDP decline and deflation was as great as 1929- the response then was to cut taxes and government spending and we got the roaring 20's. I think current circumstances are more similar to 1919 economy then was boosted by the WW1 spending this time it was MEW and reckless lending. Is it possible that 1929 was made worse not better by the intervention.
Wake me up when a chain with more than 25 branches goes broke. As of now IIRC no one big has filed for BK protection in January. What are they waiting for? A bailout?
JANUARY 12--A federal government lawyer who moonlighted as a statistician for Fox Sports improperly arranged for United States Marshals Service (USMS) deputies to drive broadcasters Troy Aikman and Joe Buck to the 2008 Super Bowl and lead motorcades for Buck and Tim McCarver during the 2007 World Series
"Speaking as the son of parents who grew up under Russian control of Czechoslovakia, I'll say this. The Russians know how the game is played. Slovaks, Russians, and much of eastern Europe and the Balkans have few illusions when it comes to government and the iron fist."
Anybody know slang Russian? do you know what muzr means, and to whom it refers?
Though I have to think that part of the metro area's poor average credit score has something to do with the size of some of the rings I see quite often. Mr. Sparkle | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 5:39 pm | #
I'll bet our cadre of 30k millionaires here in Dallas lose a little bit of their spiff in the coming years. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch.
OT Full Disclosure:
1000 EEV
300 SDS
250 QID
100 SRS
100 SKF
800 GLD
13000 BAC (restricted)
There will be much more pain for months to come, no selling here, but moving up stops on strength is advised on the past weeks performance
Macke on Fast Money tonite: compared either Citi or MS to a moldy couch with crabs that you leave out on the curb. Too funny, I hope he gets to keep his job.
Lucifer, the numbers in the Setser article are just plain scary. There are probably some really depressed Korean and Taiwanese officials drinking right now and they will not stop until these numbers start to look good.
"Musr" is a cop. I'm not going to translate, but it's not obscene, and it's not a nice thing to say about someone.
I once saw a cop try to order a car parked illegally outside a Moscow hotel to move. Out of the car jumped a man naked to the waist, covered with tatoos, and he began to curse the cop violently. The policeman looked as if he'd just been struck in the face with a brick. He turned on his heel and walked away.
Does this parse like the problem is back to what started this whole mess - what price will Ukraine pay for Russian gas? I might keep the space heater plugged in a bit longer in the Eurozone...
Gas to Start Flowing to EU Tuesday
13 January 2009
Gazprom will resume full exports to the European Union on Tuesday after Ukraine re-signed an agreement to allow international monitoring of EU-bound deliveries traversing its territory.
Gazprom will turn on the taps at 10 a.m. Tuesday, ending the worst supply disruption in EU history that has affected at least 20 European countries, Gazprom deputy chief executive Alexander Medvedev said.
[snip]
Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned, however, that further problems could erupt because at least one issue remained unresolved in the transit arrangement.
Ukraine insists that Gazprom has to provide gas to fuel the Ukrainian pumping stations that are engaged in the transit.
Gazprom pays a transit fee and will therefore not bear any extra costs, Peskov said in a conference call with reporters.
Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov suggested in an e-mailed statement that Ukraine's national gas company, Naftogaz Ukrainy, buy this gas from Gazprom. Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko said later Monday that Ukraine would pay for the so-called "technical gas" as soon it signs an agreement for this year's overall supplies. Gas to Start Flowing to EU Tuesday | News | The Moscow Times
"Does this parse like the problem is back to what started this whole mess - what price will Ukraine pay for Russian gas?"
That is the proximate problem, but it is not the problem.
The existence of a functionally independent Ukrainian state is intolerable to Russia, as it always has been. Yes, Russia wants what it considers its commercial due. But even if Ukraine were to pay full price matters would not end there.
BTW, I was driving in Slovakia once and I accidentally cut off what appeared to be a Russian mobster type (there's plenty of those there) in a mercedes...He pulled up along side me later and made a motion with his hand like it was a gun and blew me away...
Then he realized he couldn't merge back in to traffic and hand to exit off the road into a wrong way exit...
One of the scariest moments of my life...I was sure he'd catch up to me on the road later and snuff out my candle..
"Diamonds are pure carbon, the fourth most common element in the universe.
How could so many be convinced they are precious stones? Are people really that stupid? Apparently, they are" Nemo, you hopeless romantic you.
OTOH, every woman should rent and watch "Blood Diamond" an excellent movie and expose on the conflict diamond trade and the bloodshed it creates.
".He pulled up along side me later and made a motion with his hand like it was a gun and blew me away..."
If only with his hand, then perhaps he wanted to scare you. Maybe he wasn't in the mood to shoot anyone that day, or it was inconvenient at the time. I don't know. But I heard of someone who got into a private car at Sheremyetovo Airport in Moscow with the understanding it was a private deal to be driven into Moscow. Some way down the road the driver pulled a gun, and told the passenger to leave all his stuff in the car and take a hike.
And be happy I haven't blown your brains out, he said.
There are so many stories like this that not all of haloscan could hold them.
A diamond is just a rock. The highest-quality 5-kt cubic zirconia you can buy is maybe $50 (and they start at $5), and very, very few could tell they weren't diamonds.
I don't say the diamond trade is going away, but Joe No-Pak (doesn't have the cash anymore) will have better things to spend his money on for a long time.
Pyschology and metaphysics!!.. so we are officially running our economic policy based on shamanism.. Am I supposed to find this funny or tragic?
Though Ben Bernanke dressed as a shaman, might bring some much needed decorum to the Fed.
Bank of England sails into uncharted waters
Commentary: UK central bank takes Samuel Pepys and William III in tow
By David Marsh, MarketWatch
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- When interest rates approach zero, analysis of monetary policy has less to do with economics and extends more into the realm of psychology and metaphysics.
Russia is a jungle full of various creatures. They are all corrupt and violent and when one species of animal is on top there are no bounds to its cruelty to the ones below. Its not just the criminals. Its part of the culture to have little respect for human life and for human decency. I, for one, am glad that the KGB is in power. At least their corruption is organized and centralized. Democracy can not work in that place. Very glad my parents brought me here.
Their radio ads were really annoying...although since I've mostly stopped listening to the over the air radio I guess it doesn't mean much to me. Based on my limited experience with jewelers, they rip you off anyway...so good riddance.
"listed both assets and debt of $100 million to $500 million..."
Bernie's accountants sure get around. How the hell do you have business books that have a debt and asset estimates? How the hell do those estimates have a 500% delta?
Yes, Russia wants what it considers its commercial due. But even if Ukraine were to pay full price matters would not end there.
Pavel Chichikov | 01.12.09 - 6:44 pm | #
Thanks for the big picture focus - I have been looking at the proximate issue for restoring gas supply to the Eurozone - large second order effects for both the proximate and larger problems.
Pavel,
The European natural gas supply is the most interesting story out there until the Bulgaria - Black Sea - Italy route is completed. The Germans have their own Schroeder line coming too.
Until then Russia is within its rights to expect payment at market price, even if that is an increase of several multiples over the old puppet state pricing.
Because of Russia's reserves under pressure and a demanding budget domestically, it is not so much about politics which are secondary for now.
I feel bad for the Bulgarians, but at least the inadvertent pressure may help the citizens flush out some corruption. No beer production, no heat, and $70/month pensions = united in anger. Bulgaria btw had successfully negotiated a cheap price, but the Ukraine cutoff is impacting them and steel plants halted taking out maybe 15% of GDP instantly
If say the Ukraine was using the natural gas to subsidize steel production, then why is it Russia's responsibility. Why not ... the EU?
That's what it comes down to, Russia would rather have money than allegiance for now. They don't have to worry about market destruction because alternative routes are under construction.
I wouldn't draw too many examples from Georgia, which was an exceptional situation between Saakashvili and Blackwater. Too bad for them, maybe the geographic benefits make for reconciliations with Armenia
"Its not just the criminals. Its part of the culture to have little respect for human life and for human decency."
No, there are wonderful people in that country, people who would literally risk their lives for you. True friends. But there are also the other kind. It's not the West.
All is in place for the push to Iceland, however
troops getting restless, damp gloomy weather is hard to live with for extended periods. We have started band competitions and soccer leagues to moderate morale.
Comrade Misean is Dope writes:
"listed both assets and debt of $100 million to $500 million..."
Bernie's accountants sure get around. How the hell do you have business books that have a debt and asset estimates? How the hell do those estimates have a 500% delta?
==========
1 word. Goodwill
We need to switch to a pure cash flow accounting system. Have multiple layers. Layer 1, booked transactions. Layer 2, fixed contracts with expectation to complete. Layer 3, expected or speculative transactions. Have the books extend as far into the future as they have deals written for.
Then you don't need goodwill, and such buyout differences can just be taken as differences in discount values or a mental disorder
"That's what it comes down to, Russia would rather have money than allegiance for now."
Maybe, I have no special access to what's going on there. I don't think they would turn down allegiance either, nor ignore that factor. They are playing a deep game, for big stakes.
"No, there are wonderful people in that country, people who would literally risk their lives for you. True friends. But there are also the other kind. It's not the West."
&
"Pavel, few, far between and powerless."
both true in their own ways, it's a different world for sure
My wife lost her $5000 1k engagement ring a few weeks ago. She replaced it with a 1.25k cubic. It's a better size, looks nicer, and she knows no one thinks it's fake since it's obviously in an engagement ring setting. She likes it even better because she feels "smart", frugal, and thinks she is "getting away" with something.
When they have nothing left to lose, suddenly the powerless become all powerful. At the moment the social contract becomes void for lack of consideration is the moment. And this comes like a reversal of the earth's magnetic poles.
Quincy k writes:
for all your investors(gamblers) going long or short, they have a pretty interesting chart on the similarities of now and the 1929 bear market over at 321gold.com. The thread is For The Record.
Apparantly, mid-April 2009 will be the top of this current bear market rally.
very eery similarities regarding specific dates and percentage losses and gains.
Don't get too caught up in the "history repeats itself" paradigm when it comes to broader market prices. Such comparisons are promulgated by folks with too much analytical time on their hands. No two market breaks share the exact same circumstances or timetables, and monetary circumstances in 1929 were vastly different from today's post-Bretton-Woods hyper-Keynesian psycho-monetarist trainwreck.
It's not near being upon us, but once economic recovery begins it will be Tajikistan and Kazahkstan that are key to the world's political future. Monarchs won't last, and the resources will continue to grow in value while becoming more accessible to world markets.
In that I mean a country like Brazil has an good future, but along a stable path of progress. The central Asian 'stans are very much wild cards that only grow more valuable the longer they are not played
Russia is squeezing former satellites/Europeans. Russia itself is squeezed by the falling energy prices. The continentals will pick up the tab eventually. Russia will be happy with equivalent of $60bbl. The quid pro quo is the northern route to A'stan.
Similar play on a smaller scale elsewhere. World Bank is now the beacon of ethics and standards. Watch Indian IT companies implode and getting blacklisted. The squeeze is on Indians to undertake other outsourcing jobs. aka boots on the ground in A'stan.
A wife and children which are properly raised and provided for seem more and more like luxuries I cannot afford without becoming a beast of burden in an unjust economy.
If you want to invest in precious gem stones, and are worried about future market supply. Look at Opal. Rare, historically pretty and valuable, and beyond the potential for a synthetic supply for another century
In the bronze age, there were four great civilizations on earth. The were located in China, India, Egypt and Babylon. There was little or no communications among them, at least initially.
Each of the four civilizations determined on their own that gold, silver and precious stones were stores of great value.
All of these civilizations lasted at least 700 years at the top of their games.
The U.S. was the world's greatest economic power, and you could argue the world's greatest civilization, for 59 years, from 1941 through 1999.
Jewelry stores aren't going down because precious stones are no longer valuable. They will be more valuable than ever in a world of infinite money. Jewelry stores are going down because there are too many of them, and what they are selling is no longer all that precious or valuable.
Nonsense is the perfect word to describe it. Nonsense.
I think our markets have been overcome by mysticism -- oracular quants -- ironically virgins -- breathing deeply of volcanic gasses and issuing forth complicated models and spreadsheets, and unordained coming down from the mountain interpreting these utterances in whatever smooth way induces the deal to be made, taking only a modest 5% for uttering posideon's will and saving the entire athenian fleet from bad weather.
Hoopajoops, LTD:
Do you have any hypothetical examples for such internal e-mails?
As a follow-up, how much of internal e-mail is actually business related? My experience is that when the money is rolling in on wheel barrows, so are the parties and office hookups. I am frequently surprised that some people do not understand how to separate personal e-mail from work ones with different accounts
In this credit squeeze Bolivia is roadkill and Brazil is taking some collateral damage. Heck even the friendly commodity exporters up north and down under are taking one for the team.
Nude(Unrated) writes: \tIn 20 years, I expect to be able to pick up a leather-bound copy of "The Dismantling of America: Chronicles from the pages of Calculated Risk.
Seriously, coming here is like Headline News without the spin. Nude | 01.12.09 - 5:52 pm | #
That's quite appropriate. Last night, when doing a search, I came across some google-indexed CR pages at haloscan from a few years back. I got lost for a few hours in the neverending path of discovery that lead me down.
Anonymous writes:
If you want to invest in precious gem stones, and are worried about future market supply. Look at Opal. Rare, historically pretty and valuable, and beyond the potential for a synthetic supply for another century
Anonymous I disagree it's harder to find a buyer for a used opal then a used diamond 95% of the time .Disclaimer I own a pawnshop
Jewelry stores are going down because there are too many of them, and what they are selling is no longer all that precious or valuable. rich | 01.12.09 - 7:20 pm | #
The jewelry stores are going down because they are too heavily leveraged in fiat and in this environment can no longer cash flow in said fiat because volume and margin are too low. It is a recipe for disaster.
On the other hand had they NOT LEVERED UP they would be fine.
A local independent jeweler I know [does work for our family] will NEVER fail. Why? He owns all his stones & gold free and clear [he calls it his internally matched 401K]... he owns his store free and clear [never resisted the temptation to sell out at the RE peak] and if worse comes to worse he can move into the apartment above his store [he currently rents it out]. If worse comes to worse - he'll just hibernate until the recovery. If no recovery comes he'll retire... he has enough inventory owned free and clear to last him two lifetimes at his 'frugal' lifestyle. He has been buying gold & gem stones on the dips for three decades. Nice.
Obama Adviser: Stimulus Won't Be Sexist, Not Just Help For "Burly Men"
Christina Romer, using YouTube to discuss the contours of a potentially $1 trillion stimulus, you get a sense of the kind of political pressures facing Obama's economic gurus.
Romer, during the nine-minute long clip, recounts how shortly after her appointment was announced, she received an email from a women's group expressing concern that any stimulus effort would disproportionately aid "burly men."
That kind of handcrafted stuff almost always holds up...I'm assuming he's a craftsman first and foremost...Most retail stuff is crappy baubles...and try getting the sales staff to show you what you ask for...
OT:
The front page headline in this week's Atlanta Business Chronicle perdicts that 50 Georgia banks will be closed this year. The 12/31/08 call reports are supposed to be fugly. Most of the problem banks are in the metro Atlanta area.
Broadway Partners, the heavily indebted private equity firm that purchased Bostons landmark Hancock Tower at the top of the market in 2006 defaulted on a key loan payment last week. The iconic office building is a trophy property in the heart of Boston's Back Bay district. The real estate fund manager purchased the property for $1.3 billion from Beacon Capital Partners, but the office tower now appears to be headed toward foreclosure.
Defunct Lehman Brothers, described a few months ago by the New York Times as a "real estate ATM" arranged a $472 million mezzanine loan to help fund the acquisition, behind Royal Bank of Scotland's first mortgage in the amount of $640 million. The RBS loan was arranged by its real estate affiliate, Greenwich Capital Markets. The Boston Globe reported earlier that the property was worth no more than $1 billion, according a local real estate executive with access to the numbers.
Comrade Janosik if you are still here and wouldn't mind wandering OT.
I recall you mentioning spending time in Slovakia. My grandfather on my fathers side was from an area of Hungary that is now in present day Slovakia. I have never been over there but would love to make the trip someday.
It looks like someday may come later rather sooner given the economy but anyway. Do you have any knowledge of the Gemer or Gomor region of Slovakia. I am particularly interested in a town called Kamenany that was called Kovi previously. My grandfather - who died before I could was old enough to remember - came here as a young child circa 1917 from there. I was hoping to get a sense for what the area is like - I imagine it is pretty rural - not much to see on Google Earth.
Is it just me or do we have a pretty good number of Eastern European posters here? Could it be they are quick to recognize an Empire in collapse and therefore found their way to CR faster than others? Just a thought...
As a follow-up, how much of internal e-mail is actually business related?
No idea, all the non-business stuff is screened out by lower attorneys before I get to see it. Occasionally one will leak through that fills me with rage -- after losing a lot of money, a shrug shoulders email idly wondering where the kids should go for holiday, paris or martha's vineyard, wondering where the better shopping is for the kids.
_____________, the heavily indebted private equity firm that purchased ______________ at the top of the market in [2003-2006] defaulted on a key loan payment last week.
That kind of handcrafted stuff almost always holds up...I'm assuming he's a craftsman first and foremost Comrade Misean is Dope | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 7:44 pm | #
OUTSTANDING craftsman - seriously good stuff. My wife's family has regionally renowned craftsmen & artists in it [my wife could have been - elected not to go that route - it takes real fire & dedication & she didn't have it... skill yes, dedication no].
Anyway I got to talk to this jeweler quite often 'cause his kid & mine played on some hockey teams together - we were each others captive audience. He said it was a conscious effort on his part to accumulate 'physical' every chance he got - both stones and metal. If he needed ounces to work with he bought ten percent more... has been doing that for 30 years. He wants his 'craft skills' to pay then nut but if that fails - he has a fall back. Lotsa fall back. He won't be filing BK anytime soon unlike the 'chains'.
And the American "tradition" of the diamond engagement ring was literally created by an advertising campaign in the 1930s.
In 1919, De Beers experienced a drop in diamond sales that lasted for two decades. So in the 1930s it turned to the firm N.W. Ayer to devise a national advertising campaignstill relatively rare at the timeto promote its diamonds. Ayer convinced Hollywood actresses to wear diamond rings in public, and, according to Edward Jay Epstein in The Rise and Fall of the Diamond, encouraged fashion designers to discuss the new "trend" toward diamond rings. Between 1938 and 1941, diamond sales went up 55 percent."
Is it just me or do we have a pretty good number of Eastern European posters here? Could it be they are quick to recognize an Empire in collapse and therefore found their way to CR faster than others? Just a thought...
Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 7:53 pm | #
I think they're here because they're waiting for your Homepage to go "All Nude."
More junk science debunked (I knew it was getting COLDER):
"Today we are again at the peak, and near the end of a warm interglacial. The earth is DUE TO ENTER THE NEXT ICE AGE. If we are lucky, we may have a few years to prepare for it. The Ice Age will return, (as it always has) in its regular and natural cycle, with or without any influence from the effects of AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming).
The central piece of evidence that is cited in support of the AGW theory is the famous hockey stick graph which was presented by Al Gore in his 2006 film An Inconvenient Truth. The hockey stick graph shows an acute upward spike in global temperatures which began during the 1970s and continued through the winter of 2006/07. However, this warming trend was interrupted when the winter of 2007/8 delivered the deepest snow cover to the Northern Hemisphere since 1966 and the coldest temperatures since 2001. It now appears that the current Northern Hemisphere winter of 2008/09 will probably equal or surpass the winter of 2007/08 for both snow depth and cold temperatures."
"The main flaw in the AGW theory is that its proponents focus on evidence from only the past one thousand years at most, while ignoring the evidence from the past million years -- evidence which is essential for a true understanding of climatology."
USG , the heavily indebted private equity firm that purchased everything at the top of the market in [2007-2009] defaulted on a key loan payment this week.
Basel Too | 01.12.09 - 7:53 pm | # There I added my 2 cents
I think they're here because they're waiting for your Homepage to go "All Nude."
Morocco Bama
Interesting idea, times are getting tough and CR posters are about the only people with any money left nowadays...Business opportunities abound, even in hard times...Ha.
Black Star Ranch - I went to the beach yesterday and it was too hot for my clothes, so I went out in the surf in just shorts. I'm very sensitive to cold. This is the frigid bay area. It's not getting colder, it's not getting warmer. It's getting weirder. I should not be experiencing beach weather in this area on Jan 11 in the dead of winter. Birds are doing their spring mating calls and displays outside my office window. Last year at NYU, it was so warm that our cherry trees blossomed in the dead of winter as well. Shits getting weird. Climate weirding.
We're all experiencing a once in a lifetime (nay, once in a century or more) moment we can tell the grandkids about: the Time When No One Was in Charge.
It's clear that the good and the great have no idea what's going on, and the rude and the crude haven't yet flooded in to take advantage of the vacuum (YET).
This could be the freest moment any of us will ever know.
Best Buy SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO ruined that song. Comrade Misean is Dope | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 7:56 pm | #
I agree but I LOVE the Brian May guitar in that piece. He is IMO one of the greatest electric guitar players ever. BTW, as an interesting aside, Brian May is also an astrophysici
People really are stunningly stupid.
Nemo | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 7:55 pm | #
Indeed, they are. What a nonsensical tradition. My wife didn't want an engagement ring. We both have gold wedding bands.
My brother's wife inidcated that she will be updating her enagagement and wedding rings to bigger stones soon. It's the latest trend....or, at least it was until recently. That trend may reverse now, considering. Personally, if me was he, I would tell her to lose 45 pounds and study the Karma Sutra if she wants the update.....and learn how to cook.
Pool table stores will also go out of business. Every house I look at that is a short sale or more is empty except for the pool table. This is in the 600k plus houses. It was like:
"Honey if you let me get this house you can get the pool table you always wanted"
I used to manufacture jewelery. Colombian emeralds are may favourite stones. The best part is working the metal - casting it. It was great to learn technology 1000's years old. The funnest part was selling diamonds and watching the interaction between the engagement couples about to marry - watching the woman's eyes glaze over looking at a stone. And the man's reaction to the price. Silly possessions. Not depression proof at all. My advise would be to buy an extra generator.
"Today we are again at the peak, and near the end of a warm interglacial. The earth is DUE TO ENTER THE NEXT ICE AGE. If we are lucky, we may have a few years to prepare for it. The Ice Age will return, (as it always has) in its regular and natural cycle, with or without any influence from the effects of AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming). Black Star Ranch | 01.12.09 - 7:56 pm | #
Climate "weirding" sums it up best imo. I noticed about eight years ago that fall would come earlier, we just had a very chilly November in Florida. Now we have all our trees spitting pollen in January. It's almost as if the Seasons are shifting.
Really, global warming or cooling is a secondary debate. The main thing to realize is that you cannot keep on dumping in CO2 into the atmosphere and expect the ecosystem to balance... well, balance in a way that is favorable to our continued "Business-As-Usual" survival. Carbon balances are well known and no one disputes certain facts (like, what happens when the pH of the oceans in the world change due to absorbing so much more CO2 than normal in such a short period of time?)
People really have to read more scientific papers written by those who aren't left or right wing hucksters. The information is fairly conclusive.
404 - Page Not Found gD95LT5I82
tg is a born & bred dope in a | 01.12.09 - 8:02 pm | #
Posting that chopper crash to this thread as though it's more newsworthy than the slaughter in Gaza is uncalled for. It's an army chopper. When you sign up, you sign up to die, and support a death machine that pillages and plunders the planet.
My comment was intended to raise ire. Let's have some persective.
One of the other important consequenses of dumping more carbon into the atmosphere is that lots of it ends up in the ocean (apx 40%) where it turns into carbolic acid and acidifies they oceans. This makes it harder for caclium carbonate to form. Why care about calcium carbonate? Because it forms the shells of stuff like clam shells and corals. Very important links in the ocean food chains. We are already seeing major ocean fisheries crash due to over fishing. Losing the oceans would not be good for world food supplies
Folks, we've gotten good enough that just about every gemstone can be manufactured in the lab. In a handful of cases the synthetic costs as much as the natural (usually semi-precious), but usually they're cheaper. Some of them can be identified as synthetic, but the "common" test is they're "too good". Now since for almost every stone the better the quality the more it's worth, this test winds up putting a cap on the stones' worth.
The second thing of which to beware is the multitude of tricks to "improve" the natural stones. These usually involve soaking or washing the stone in a chemical substance that enhances the color. If you know what you're looking for (experience) and you look carefully enough you can tell before you buy. If you buy without knowing then try to sell to someone who does know how to tell, you can take a major loss (if you're lucky, that's all you'll take).
Ironically, if you're looking to use gems as a wealth transportation device and you're not an expert, you're probably better served to take lesser grade precious stones. That, or good but not excellent grades of various semi-precious stones. Both still cost a fair amount, but the grade pretty well ensures to the buyer on the other end that they're natural - you're not going to eat a loss over accusations of fakery. Even so, take time to research the ways of faking up the quality of what you're considering purchasing to avoid buying REALLY BAD stones that have been enhanced to medium quality.
"She was left shamed. A resolution that she prepared and arranged, and in the end she did not vote in favour," Olmert said in a speech in the southern town of Ashkelon.
"In the night between Thursday and Friday, when the secretary of state wanted to lead the vote on a ceasefire at the Security Council, we did not want her to vote in favour," Olmert said.
"I said 'get me President Bush on the phone'. They said he was in the middle of giving a speech in Philadelphia. I said I didn't care. 'I need to talk to him now'. He got off the podium and spoke to me.
"I told him the United States could not vote in favour. It cannot vote in favour of such a resolution. He immediately called the secretary of state and told her not to vote in favour."
Something comical just remembered. I could write a 1/3 of a book on one incident in the J trade. How my head jeweler "V" and his wife were conned out of all the jewelery by a 75 year old man . What an artist he was. It took him six weeks, but he got all of the kid's valuable possessions, and NONE of us saw it coming, although at least six so-called street savvy people, all of us in our 20's, and from the toughest block in town watched it play out. The guy was a master... hehe..
I wish i could write plays..it would be a perfect plot.
Yeah! Did his severed head roll through the grass! C'mon. Did any children die?
nova | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 8:10 pm | #
Not sure what you're on about with the severed head and children. Nobody here advocated that. In fact, quite the opposite. That's what Macho Brave Army Men like those Aggies are doing in Gaza right now (the IDF version, although they're one and the same in sentiment, just different uniforms) ....and have done in Iraq for the past 5 years. Fallujah, anyone?
Pool table stores will also go out of business. Every house I look at that is a short sale or more is empty except for the pool table. This is in the 600k plus houses. It was like: nova | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 8:02 pm | #
A couple years ago a company I was selling stuff for had a sales promotion - the guy who sold the most was going to win this HUGE pool table. I didn't win [the guy covering Detroit won - it was an automotive product so no surprise]. Any way I was good friends with the sales manager and I asked him... 'WTF? If I win the damned thing where would I put it - in the back yard?' There was no place in my 1915 house for something like that - we wouldn't even have room in the living room. The things are massive and weigh a ton! He and I had some chuckles over that one - I told him the NEXT sales promotion needs to be bamboo fly rods - that is something every sensible person would want.
"People really have to read more scientific papers written by those who aren't left or right wing hucksters. The information is fairly conclusive."
Yep.
"What it means
The authors state that "change in the carbon dioxide concentration of the atmosphere is commonly regarded as a likely forcing mechanism on global climate over geological time because of its large and predictable effect on temperature," which "predictable effect" is that increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration cause higher temperatures to occur and that decreases in atmospheric CO2 concentration cause lower temperatures to occur. Their data, however, clearly demonstrate that this incredibly common assumption is just plain false.
Starting 60 million years before present (BP), the authors have the atmosphere's CO2 concentration at approximately 3600 ppm and the oxygen isotope ratio at about 0.3 per mil. Thirteen million years later, however, the air's CO2 concentration has dropped all the way down to 500 ppm; but the oxygen isotope ratio has dropped (implying a rise in temperature) to zero, which is, of course, just the opposite of what one would expect from the "large and predictable effect" of CO2 on temperature that is commonly assumed.
Next comes a large spike in the air's CO2 content, all the way up to a value of 2400 ppm. And what does the oxygen isotope ratio do? It rises slightly (implying temperature falls slightly) to about 0.4 per mil, which is again just the opposite of what one would expect from the "large and predictable effect" of CO2 on temperature that is commonly assumed.
After the spike in CO2, of course, the air's CO2 concentration drops dramatically, declining to a minimum value of close to what it is today. And the oxygen isotope ratio? It barely changes at all, defying once again the common assumption of the "large and predictable effect" of CO2 on temperature."
"Last year at NYU, it was so warm that our cherry trees blossomed in the dead of winter as well."
IIRC, it was the Dept. of Agriculture that has shifted our DC-northern Virginia climate south one planting-growing category, so that we are now effectively in middle-southern Virginia. Ask your local seed and plant store around here.
excellent post, kirk. forgeries are indeed a factor in almost every category of collectible, making the provenance often as much part of an item's value as the item itself. i'd love to see a general survey of this asset class in this deflationary winter outside of art auction headlines and low-volume ebay trades.
Comrade Misean is Dope,
You, sir, rock...you might be interested in or already be familiar with the concept of the "Medieval Warm Period"...something additional to consider when thinking about CO2.
"Let's hope Jellystone doesn't erupt. The oceans may turn to hydrogen sulfide."
"Astronomers all over the world have advised that a high-orbit long period comet has suddenly appeared out of the direction of the sun. The core is 20 kilometers in diameter, and the effect on our planet will be catastrophic. The impact will take place in 48 hours. The ------- press spokesman has issued an appeal to the public to remain calm and avoid panic."
"The Vostok data graph also shows that changes in global CO2 levels lag behind global temperature changes by about eight hundred years. What that indicates is that global temperatures precede or cause global CO2 changes, and not the reverse. In other words, increasing atmospheric CO2 is not causing global temperature to rise; instead the natural cyclic increase in global temperature is causing global CO2 to rise."
re climate changes... Go to your local garden club - the one filled with elderly women and gentlemen who've been planting since the state was welcomed to the union - and get into a discussion about planting dates. You'll discover that over the past decade they've shifted to be earlier by a couple of weeks.
If you have one of the specialists who liked to grow edge-of-zone plants, they'll tell you how it used to be too cold - or how it's now too hot, depending on the plant - and so they either no longer grow it or have to go an extra mile for success.
Most have also noted other climate changes - temperature changes have other effects. Rain patterns are the most frequently cited, just as an example.
These amateur practical scientists (they keep records, I'll keep the label) are the best reference I've found to 'what's going on' - something, or nothing. It's pretty consistently "something", and most tend to being it's generally warmer.
More thoughts on jewelery. Quoting myself, just like 'there is only ever one currency', there is only ever one monetarised metal. Gold is a shadow currency because humans over the last 10,000 years made it so. It's the only alternative to holding something that is not a promise to pay. All precious stones are dumb investments - from one who understands the trade. (perhaps opals are the worst, although they are all in the same bucket). Gold does not require an appraiser's signature. Case closed.
Why not hold more silver? I understand that gold is more valuable by mass, but the lower value of silver should mean that it is more easy to spend and functions better as a means of exchange. Hard to get change nowadays.
Ok, did the much-hated shopping for biz wear on Sunday. Haven't bought a suit in ten years, and they were getting a little less than fresh after each dryclean. And the really nice ones had had the pockets darned because my wallet stuffed with stupid store cards had rubbed through.
Step one: clear wallet of cards suggesting I might be saving $10 a year of stuff I don't usually buy.
Step two: go scope a major, like Bloomies, discover to heart palpitations that most suits are in the $600-$1300 range.
Step three: despair, then remember Filene's Basement is down the road.
Step four: spend several hours in Filene's trying sh!t on, loathing most minutes of it.
Step five: walk out with two great pinstripe suits, 5 shirts, and a bunch of other stuff for much less than the Bloomie minimum prices would allow.
The discount model worked. But how's the standard model? Noy good, I suspect.
"Pavel, what are you worried about? At least you're going to heaven."
I believe in an afterlife, MB. Where I end up is not my decision. However, the Judge is, one might say, an infinitely nicer guy than any of us. We have hope. Our merits don't get us into heaven. His love gets us in.
Sir Walter Raleigh, The Passionate Man's Pilgrimage [excerpt]:
"...From thence to heavens's bribeless hall,
Where no corrupted voices brawl ;
No conscience molten into gold,
No forged accuser bought or sold,
No cause deferred, nor vain-spent journey ;
For there Christ is the King's Attorney,
Who pleads for all without degrees,
And he hath angels, but no fees.
And when the grand twelve-million jury
Of our sins, with direful fury,
'Gainst our souls black verdicts give,
Christ pleads his death, and then we live.
Be thou my speaker, taintless pleader,
Unblotted lawyer, true proceeder !
Thou giv'st salvation even for alms ;
Not with a bribèd lawyer's palms.
And this is my eternal plea
To him that made heaven, earth, and sea,
That, since my flesh must die so soon,
And want a head to dine next noon,
Just at the stroke, when my veins start and spread,
Set on my soul an everlasting head.
Then am I ready, like a palmer fit ;
To tread those blest paths which before I writ."
FFDIC writes:
FDIC will open new Atlanta office in 3 months.
Why? They are a failed institution, the TARP has bailed out 220 banks that would have failed. They have $34 billion guaranteeing $11 Trillion in assets. Shut it down, it is a joke
Why? They are a failed institution, the TARP has bailed out 220 banks that would have failed. They have $34 billion guaranteeing $11 Trillion in assets. Shut it down, it is a joke
Johnny Mustardseed | 01.12.09 - 8:48 pm | #
At the conclusion of the S&L/RTC/FDIC 80s crisis (which still has not concluded in terms of paying for it)the FDIC wrote several volumes to burnish its reputation, lay the blame on RTC, OTS, OCC and provide key lessons learned which it did not learn. It will do the same with this crisis and already has highly compensated research staff assigned and tracking the information in its library and offices nationwide.
Morrow, along with two young children, My-Ca Dinh Le (aged 7) and Renee Shin-Yi Chen (aged 6), died on the set of Twilight Zone: The Movie (1982).
Blackhalo | 01.12.09 - 8:56 pm | #
Wow, if that's the case, that was as cryptic as it gets. Clever. Got me.
I took a vacation and went up and down I-5 in california to the no-name towns to look at each town's respective "foreclosure rows" of houses built in the last 5 years. I was idly wondering the other night how long it will take the handfull of homeowners on those blocks to protect the value of their homes by sneaking over one night to a few foreclosures and brightening up the night sky with a little bonfire. Once people figure out that "reducing excess inventory" is easy now that municipal fire and law budgets are slashed, I expect this to become a more common occurrence. At least in the central valley.
"This can be a great place, but there's so much that's off-topic here."
It is a real zoo after midnight. Stay and I'll post a recipe from my new cookbook - Cajun Cooking - Cooking Through the Seasons on Avery Island by Eula Mae Dore and Marcelle R. Bienvenu...
I think I'll end up in Hell with my other friends . maybe you know some of them Greenspan , hanky paulson , bush ,clinton , Barney Frank ,soon to be Obama ect
bgates, where is this? Where specifically are you thinking of, the el dorado hills? There are some amazing developments up there, way up these hills, way far away from any jobs or commerce, the only store nearby a luxury car store, probably no water to speak of... I bet they'll be wiped out by wildfires in the coming budgetary crunches. I'm thinking the 80/50 east of Sacto to the mountains.
I took a vacation and went up and down I-5 in california to the no-name towns to look at each town's respective "foreclosure rows" of houses built in the last 5 years. I was idly wondering the other night how long it will take the handfull of homeowners on those blocks to protect the value of their homes by sneaking over one night to a few foreclosures and brightening up the night sky with a little bonfire. Once people figure out that "reducing excess inventory" is easy now that municipal fire and law budgets are slashed, I expect this to become a more common occurrence. At least in the central valley. Hoopajoops, LTD | 01.12.09 - 9:00 pm | #
The neighbors might be looking at the burned out hulks for a half decade if they do - who is going to rebuild - not a recipe for neighborhood appreciation. Ask Detroit.
Then again it might be a 'strip club strategy' on the part of the banks owning the REO... strip clubs frequently insure themselves to the absolute limit with the hope somebody burns the place down out of a desire to drive them out.
My local Target has replaced their Christmas aisles with a couple of aisles of gardening stuff. But not just any gardening stuff: color-coordinated boots and rubber gloves in all the latest Martha Stewart hues, and darling little miniature galoshes and toy watering cans for the wee ones. So, don't worry - they're onto the paradigm shift.
(Of course, gardening season in this part of the country is a good 14 to 16 weeks off yet...)
mal writes:
My local Target has replaced their Christmas aisles with a couple of aisles of gardening stuff. But not just any gardening stuff: color-coordinated boots and rubber gloves in all the latest Martha Stewart hues, and darling little miniature galoshes and toy watering cans for the wee ones. So, don't worry - they're onto the paradigm shift.
(Of course, gardening season in this part of the country is a good 14 to 16 weeks off yet...)
emo
YouTube - Shane - exciting ending to Western movie classic
ever been a better time to sell all your jewelry for cash, then take the cash and bury it in the yard.
If it puts an end to that monotone radio commercial guy's voice, (Mr. Shane?) I'm all for this BK.
I noticed a fair number of rather desperate sounding jewelry store ads on before Christmas. Apparently Santa didn't listen.
Their jewelry is pretty UGLY too.
Who cares about a 23 store chain?
This is amarica. We have houndred of thousands of stores. If 23 close that is just a sign of health.
This is nothing!
their TV ads were convincing...
convincing that their jewelry (diamonds shopped for around the world!) was crap
On the bright side for guys out there, perhaps this recession will finally put to rest that ridiculous "2 months salary" advertisement for engagement rings.
Except perhaps in Dallas where it seems quite often that "too big" would be considered "just right."
Shane Jewelry ... or ... Plain Foolery?
guy gives a 'too big' engagement ring = little penis
On the bright side, I will not have to listen to those corn ball commercials on the radio anymore.
Too bad I wasted so much time finding the video clip.
This is just the beginning.
BK!
It's coming to a town/city/village/hamlet/megapolis near you!
@JimPort - hmm... not sure what that says about (ahem) Big D.
Though I have to think that part of the metro area's poor average credit score has something to do with the size of some of the rings I see quite often.
Wonder if TIF will follow, suspect with smaller bonuses there were fewer lil lite blue boxes under the tree this year. Zale also got only coal for Xmas:
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Jewlrey has to be the ultimate discretionary purchase, and look for lots of holes in the malls as they shut down.
Just figured it out -- this blog is the Everything Implode-O-Meter.
One of my siblings works for ShaneCo in Colorado, in their advertisting and media buying dept. Seems like things have been shaky these past few weeks, but as of now, she'll be keeping her job.
So, you'll just hear less of Shane. LOL
Note: The Census Bureau will release Q4 retail sales on Wednesday, and those numbers are guaranteed to be UGLY. - CR
Will the numbers look better if we all get drunk first?
ever heard of the place
Can't they just scrap the stores and start up a web based business?
This strategy apparently works for other retailers.
Will the numbers look better if we all get drunk first?
dryfly | 01.12.09 - 5:40 pm | #
gonna need some pretty thick beer goggles for those number Dry
Mr. Sparkle writes:
@JimPort - hmm... not sure what that says about (ahem) Big D.
Well, they say 'big hats, no cattle'.
Dallas: big hats and boots on guys, furs on gals in July: faux country, faux wealth
OCDan --
BK!
It's coming to a town/city/village/hamlet/megapolis near you!
You forgot "sovereign nation"
I grew up with these ads.
from memory:
" THE SHANE COMPANY, DIRECT DIAMOND IMPORTERS. JUST OFF ARAPAHOE ROAD ON EMPORIA STREET ONE HALF MILE EAST OF I 25. OPEN EVERY NIGHT MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIL EIGHT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TIL FIVE"
Those ads worked, I guess.
Will the numbers look better if we all get drunk first?
dryfly | 01.12.09 - 5:40 pm | #
They just might get right cute around 2:00 AM....
Local diamond dealer came in looking to borrow money today .Told me xmas sales where off 40 %
Every kiss of death begins with K:
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
I agree that the "2 months salary" advertisement was ridiculous...
Still, the overall cost of an engagement ring is a small compared to the commitment it symbolizes. (Or... ask anyone who's been divorced about the true cost of the commitment.)
single, never married... not bitter->
o, they "all hat , no cattle"
Will the numbers look better if we all get drunk first?
dryfly | 01.12.09 - 5:40 pm | #
No, we will just chew our arm off the next...oh wait, nvm.
ever been a better time to sell all your jewelry for cash, then take the cash and bury it in the yard.
ham_lines | 01.12.09 - 5:30 pm | #
Bury cash, paper, just paper. Really? Why?
2 months salary!!!
how about 2 days salary, more reasonable IMHO
flawed diamonds are good for just about everyone. If they examine your rock closely, they don't deserve to be your friend.
CR - Lets have a contest on who can guess Wednesday's number?
My bet YoY will -13% (over all)
Steepest decline in clothing retail (aka Abercrombe et al)
a diamond is forever...
but it doesn't take eons to make good ones. someday the DeBeers monopoly will lose control and Russian manufactured diamonds at 10% the price will own the market. No flaws, either.
Diamonds = perfect example of artificial scarcity.
For the last year and half Tom Shane of the Shane Co has been killing the air waves with commercials... I think they just opened a new store in San Diego too... Classic!
In 20 years, I expect to be able to pick up a leather-bound copy of "The Dismantling of America: Chronicles from the pages of Calculated Risk.
Seriously, coming here is like Headline News without the spin.
Dirk - I left you a response two threads back.
Interesting bit of color at the end from Chinese media coverage...
EU expects resumption of gas supplies on Tuesday
2009-01-13 BRUSSELS, Jan. 12 (Xinhua) -- The European Union said here on Monday that it expects Russian gas to resume flowing to Europe on Tuesday morning as Ukraine gave up its unilateral demand attached to the original deal.
English_Xinhua
"In the morning Ukraine gave up its unilateral declaration and gas supplies will start via Ukraine to the EU tomorrow morning," Czech Industry Minister Martin Riman told a press conference after chairing an EU energy ministers' extraordinary meeting. The Czech Republic now holds the rotating EU presidency.
Energy Commissioner Andris Piebalgs echoed the minister on the same occasion, saying: "We expect that the gas will start to flow at 8:00 (Central Europe time) (0700 GMT) on Tuesday."
[snip]
But neither Piebalgs nor Riman seemed relieved by the latest progress. Piebalgs warned that if gas supplies could not resume on Tuesday morning, it would be clear "who to blame" for the cutoff of the supplies.
EU expects resumption of gas supplies on Tuesday_English_Xinhua
DeBeers : diamond cartell
DaBeers : what Bears fans order up all game long.
Among Shanes 6,000 creditors are 550 employees and 4,600 customers who placed special orders or made layaway deposits on future purchases.
And KMart's sales were boosted by its layaway promotion!
Credit enima: I'm sure you do layaway with your shop. Do you have to disclose to customers that they're an unsecured creditor?
conistency, man! DaBeers : what Bears fans order up all game long.
Coach
DaBeers : what da Bears fans order up all game long.
Coach
Diamonds are pure carbon, the fourth most common element in the universe.
How could so many be convinced they are precious stones? Are people really that stupid? Apparently, they are.
We got more in store.
I don't answer the fascination with GDP, strip out MEW to more historic levels of withdrawal and one comes out with a 8-12% decline in GDP. When that correction is done the economy will start to grow again. Stimulating it with debt takes away from future gains in GDP. Same with the car companies 0% financing took future sales into the present so a higher than normal decline should be expected. I think the best solution to this problem is time.
Diamonds = perfect example of artificial scarcity.
\t Apparatchik ZackAttack
Apparatchik ZackAttack | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 5:51 pm | #
Yep.
Have You Ever Tried to Sell a Diamond? - The Atlantic
(February 1982)
Whitehall and Lundstrom closed 373 stores in 2008. That knocked a hole in the local mall.
Hey here's an idea for the next world currency: Diamonds. DeBeers would be happy to keep things 'orderly' in the market. Micro-engraving (with laser) on each stone tells the nominal value.
"He didn't go to Shane's"
No one is immune:
Attendance at this year's International Consumer Electronics Show could be well below organizer estimates, according to preliminary data released by the Consumer Electronics Association on Sunday.The show, which opened with Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer's keynote last Wednesday night and ran through Sunday, attracted "more than 110,000" people, according to the preliminary estimates. Before CES began the organizers said they expected "more than 130,000" people to attend the show.Fully audited figures are due in about 90 days and could push that estimate up or down. Last year the CEA had estimated 130,000 attendees, but the audit reported 141,150 attendees.
Well, the way to fix this is PEG the dollar to diamonds instead of gold.
Nemo writes:
Diamonds are pure carbon, the fourth most common element in the universe.
How could so many be convinced they are precious stones? Are people really that stupid? Apparently, they are.
Nemo | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 5:56 pm | #
My wife would literally take a cheese grater to the scrotum of any man who attempted to take her diamonds away from her "sparkly".
I, on the other hand, only hold that kind of love for my video display.
On top of that; rubies, emeralds and sapphires can be artificially made from common materials thanks to modern chemistry.
Also with CVD man made diamonds will be as cheap as chips.
Pretty soon country stars will find that diamonds are cheaper than rhinestones.
We are destroying industries faster than we can create them
i've got a friend no longer in the diamond business
for all your investors(gamblers) going long or short, they have a pretty interesting chart on the similarities of now and the 1929 bear market over at 321gold.com. The thread is For The Record.
Apparantly, mid-April 2009 will be the top of this current bear market rally.
very eery similarities regarding specific dates and percentage losses and gains.
Now you no longer have a friend in the diamond business
sue - wholesale diamond prices are up 20+% in the last year...can't say that about the future of the USD so maybe there is an arguement to be made here
missed it by that much!
"could be well below organizer estimates"
EEE - the video game show in LA - effectively died last year. those shows add minimal value except as an excuse for corporate junkets.
Diamonds are forever, Shane was not.
More retail splat coming.
Get ready to watch a lot of inventory begin to hit all available channels for liquidation.
Ah well, diamonds are only necessary for smuggling. As for the artificial ones, I bet the cost of energy will limit them- from what I read the process is only good if you have a lot of cheap energy, like most fertilizers.
YMMV.
Someday this war's gonna end...
they should sell gold coins instead of jewelry.
Large carat stones used to be an easy way to spirit large amounts of worth out of dodgy places, now you can't even count on that.
"the similarities of now and the 1929"
i see the XLF as a better metric than the broader market for that one. target is 5, more or less, to equal DJIA 30 circa 1932.
Their inability to get under the TARP is evidence of management's incompetence. Let 'em die.
are there any safe havens for those on the edge of retirement?
that is for those who do not believe chief economists ordering a 2009 end to the recession.
thanks in advance
Credit enima: I'm sure you do layaway with your shop. Do you have to disclose to customers that they're an unsecured creditor?
Basel Too
We get half down which gets me out cost wise.
Lest turn these BK's into a shopping event. People wait outside the door as eager liquidators get things ready inside.
coming out of this down turn do you think it is specialty retailers or department stores that do better. I think it will be department stores. Half empty malls specially if the anchor tenant is not there are not going to attract a lot of traffic. Seems to me that specialty retailers require a lot of traffic.
Now I don't have any friends in the diamond business...
"are there any safe havens "
i like a blend of JNK, cash and GSG or DJP for that one. anything except treasuries and individual stocks.
Stimulus idea: Similar to a corp using percent matching of 401k, why can't the gov't temporarily match a percentage of savings, and w2 and 1099 income for the middle class, combined with business tax cuts?
Wouldn't that be the quickest and most fair, stimulating spending while at the same time help deflate debt (ie: cause mild inflation)?
Waiting for construction spending ain't gonna work since many are BK.
coming out of this down turn do you think it is specialty retailers or department stores that do better. I think it will be department stores.
It's all about the debt...
"How could so many be convinced they are precious stones? Are people really that stupid?"
Anybody watch "Blood Diamond" if you wondering
why the high prices
thanks for the suggestions bgates
I am shocked.. what about decoupling..
This really doesnt look good
Posted on Sunday, January 11th, 2009
By bsetser
Words dont really do justice to the brutality of recent downturn in Korean and Taiwanese exports.
Brad Setser: Follow the Money » Blog Archive » This really doesn’t look good
@Nemo
diamond have more uses than just jewelry
e.g. oil drill bits
"thanks for the suggestions"
my pleasure! as a caveat, the suggestion gets stronger when those are cheaper, e.g. JNK under 30, GSG under 25, etc.
With diamonds, the closer to perfection you get, the more valuable the stone is. Artificially-created stones tend to come out so well that the person looking at it under a super-duper microscope says "It must be artificial, it's too perfect". Therefore, artificially-created stones are likely to destroy the high-end market.
The value of a colored stone lies in the patterns of imperfections, which can be used to determine where in the world it came out of the ground. Artificially-created are very easy to spot under a microscope. They don't replicate the valuable patterns and slight color variations, they just look incredibly sparkly. The high-end markets are not under threat.
I could definitely be wrong on this, but if you're looking at gemstones as a store of value, go for rubies, emeralds, sapphires, etc. Don't go for diamonds. Besides, there are enough REAL diamonds in storage that someone could kill the entire market just by releasing some of them.
sue | 01.12.09 - 5:57 pm | #
you are spot on. Everybody is comparing current times to 1929 but what about 1919-1921. GDP decline and deflation was as great as 1929- the response then was to cut taxes and government spending and we got the roaring 20's. I think current circumstances are more similar to 1919 economy then was boosted by the WW1 spending this time it was MEW and reckless lending. Is it possible that 1929 was made worse not better by the intervention.
Manufactured diamonds will eventually utterly destroy the traditional diamond biz . . . which is as crooked as it gets.
Thank glod I found a woman who was not diamond crazy, cause there was no way on earth I was buying a rock for 10 grand plus.
I like diamonds.
I suppose if zillions of unflawed ones are produced, then the interestingly flawed ones will become more valuable!!
Hi nude, if you're still there.
Most of mine were inherited.
should I carry over my FD from the last thread?
Stated another way, there was no way I'd let those sleazebags at deBeers extort my hard earned cash.
If i had to choose the two most evil corps in history of the world, it's deBeers and their fellow company Anglo-American.
Wake me up when a chain with more than 25 branches goes broke. As of now IIRC no one big has filed for BK protection in January. What are they waiting for? A bailout?
Sam, yes.
My diamonds are also small!!
I understand that a good emerald is far more valuable than a good diamond.
"oil drill bits"
those worked out well for hughes' daddy
I no longer have a friend in the diamond business. Yahoo!
O/T
I love paying taxes for this stuff!
JANUARY 12--A federal government lawyer who moonlighted as a statistician for Fox Sports improperly arranged for United States Marshals Service (USMS) deputies to drive broadcasters Troy Aikman and Joe Buck to the 2008 Super Bowl and lead motorcades for Buck and Tim McCarver during the 2007 World Series
Dirk van Dijk | \t \t \t \t01.12.09 - 5:44 pm | #
Dirk van Dijk | 01.12.09 - 5:44 pm | #
Dirk,
Did you see this? I am just relaying...
http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/631684709710604101/#818297
My diamonds are also small!!
I understand that a good emerald is far more valuable than a good diamond.
lawyerliz | 01.12.09 - 6:18 pm | #
Small diamonds will keep you fed when the trucks stop running. I'd let loose of them reluctantly.
"Will the numbers look better if we all get drunk first?"
Naturally. Why do you think most of us drink, anyway?
"sometimes you misunderestimated me"
GWB - 2008
"Speaking as the son of parents who grew up under Russian control of Czechoslovakia, I'll say this. The Russians know how the game is played. Slovaks, Russians, and much of eastern Europe and the Balkans have few illusions when it comes to government and the iron fist."
Anybody know slang Russian? do you know what muzr means, and to whom it refers?
Though I have to think that part of the metro area's poor average credit score has something to do with the size of some of the rings I see quite often.
Mr. Sparkle | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 5:39 pm | #
I'll bet our cadre of 30k millionaires here in Dallas lose a little bit of their spiff in the coming years. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch.
"muzr" ??
muzr...?
I know muz is a "man"
you got me, dunno
"I love paying taxes for this stuff!"
We apply a topical flea and tick repellent to our dog every month.
OT Full Disclosure:
1000 EEV
300 SDS
250 QID
100 SRS
100 SKF
800 GLD
13000 BAC (restricted)
There will be much more pain for months to come, no selling here, but moving up stops on strength is advised on the past weeks performance
Most Emeralds are treated . Larger ones are pricey but under the cost of
\t
Paraiba Tourmaline Paraiba Tourmaline - english and alexandrite which are much more expensive
Macke on Fast Money tonite: compared either Citi or MS to a moldy couch with crabs that you leave out on the curb. Too funny, I hope he gets to keep his job.
Lucifer, the numbers in the Setser article are just plain scary. There are probably some really depressed Korean and Taiwanese officials drinking right now and they will not stop until these numbers start to look good.
Pavel has a perfectly lovely poem which he modestly posted on the almost dead thread one down.
"I know muz is a "man"""
That would be 'muzh.*
"Musr" is a cop. I'm not going to translate, but it's not obscene, and it's not a nice thing to say about someone.
I once saw a cop try to order a car parked illegally outside a Moscow hotel to move. Out of the car jumped a man naked to the waist, covered with tatoos, and he began to curse the cop violently. The policeman looked as if he'd just been struck in the face with a brick. He turned on his heel and walked away.
"Pavel has a perfectly lovely poem which he modestly posted on the almost dead thread one down."
Thank you, Liz.
Caught the poem Pavel....
my sister is a writer as well...graduated with a master's from UT's creative writing program....
her specialty was Russian literature...
Stranger in a strange land indeed, she's looking for work at the moment and not very optimistic.
Does this parse like the problem is back to what started this whole mess - what price will Ukraine pay for Russian gas? I might keep the space heater plugged in a bit longer in the Eurozone...
Gas to Start Flowing to EU Tuesday
13 January 2009
Gazprom will resume full exports to the European Union on Tuesday after Ukraine re-signed an agreement to allow international monitoring of EU-bound deliveries traversing its territory.
Gazprom will turn on the taps at 10 a.m. Tuesday, ending the worst supply disruption in EU history that has affected at least 20 European countries, Gazprom deputy chief executive Alexander Medvedev said.
[snip]
Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned, however, that further problems could erupt because at least one issue remained unresolved in the transit arrangement.
Ukraine insists that Gazprom has to provide gas to fuel the Ukrainian pumping stations that are engaged in the transit.
Gazprom pays a transit fee and will therefore not bear any extra costs, Peskov said in a conference call with reporters.
Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov suggested in an e-mailed statement that Ukraine's national gas company, Naftogaz Ukrainy, buy this gas from Gazprom. Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko said later Monday that Ukraine would pay for the so-called "technical gas" as soon it signs an agreement for this year's overall supplies.
Gas to Start Flowing to EU Tuesday | News | The Moscow Times
Sorry, that word should have been transliterated with a z, as muzr. I'm getting my alphabets mixed up.
"Stranger in a strange land indeed, she's looking for work at the moment and not very optimistic."
I'll pray for her.
UT is U. of Texas?
I will not have to listen to those corn ball commercials
JD | 01.12.09 - 5:37 pm | #
I was hoping it was Jared Jewelery. Those commercials, I can live without.
I hate most of all the jewelry ads, from Christmases past suggesting that men who didn't buy their wives jewelry didn't love them.
"Does this parse like the problem is back to what started this whole mess - what price will Ukraine pay for Russian gas?"
That is the proximate problem, but it is not the problem.
The existence of a functionally independent Ukrainian state is intolerable to Russia, as it always has been. Yes, Russia wants what it considers its commercial due. But even if Ukraine were to pay full price matters would not end there.
"UT is U. of Texas?"
Yes UT is University of Texas...
BTW, I was driving in Slovakia once and I accidentally cut off what appeared to be a Russian mobster type (there's plenty of those there) in a mercedes...He pulled up along side me later and made a motion with his hand like it was a gun and blew me away...
Then he realized he couldn't merge back in to traffic and hand to exit off the road into a wrong way exit...
One of the scariest moments of my life...I was sure he'd catch up to me on the road later and snuff out my candle..
I was hoping it was Jared Jewelery. Those commercials, I can live without.
Blackhalo | 01.12.09 - 6:40 pm | #
Jared sucks. Went to them to see about getting a replacement wedding band.
They tried all the dusty old sales tricks ("Price might go up tomorrow", yada yada yada).
Walked out immediately, adjourned to local shop in town, very satisfied with their service.
The Russian mod is crazy man...I remember a news story from when I was kid...the mob had offed these two cops in my home city.
They cut off their heads, placed the bodies in their police car and put their heads on the roof above their bodies...
hair combed, police caps on, smiles on their faces.
Yikes
mod should be mob in last post...
"Diamonds are pure carbon, the fourth most common element in the universe.
How could so many be convinced they are precious stones? Are people really that stupid? Apparently, they are" Nemo, you hopeless romantic you.
OTOH, every woman should rent and watch "Blood Diamond" an excellent movie and expose on the conflict diamond trade and the bloodshed it creates.
Pavel, are you referring to the word 'musor' as in garbage?
".He pulled up along side me later and made a motion with his hand like it was a gun and blew me away..."
If only with his hand, then perhaps he wanted to scare you. Maybe he wasn't in the mood to shoot anyone that day, or it was inconvenient at the time. I don't know. But I heard of someone who got into a private car at Sheremyetovo Airport in Moscow with the understanding it was a private deal to be driven into Moscow. Some way down the road the driver pulled a gun, and told the passenger to leave all his stuff in the car and take a hike.
And be happy I haven't blown your brains out, he said.
There are so many stories like this that not all of haloscan could hold them.
"Pavel, are you referring to the word 'musor' as in garbage?"
Yep.
"mycop" [cryillic]
Haloscan is acting weirder than usual.
A diamond is just a rock. The highest-quality 5-kt cubic zirconia you can buy is maybe $50 (and they start at $5), and very, very few could tell they weren't diamonds.
I don't say the diamond trade is going away, but Joe No-Pak (doesn't have the cash anymore) will have better things to spend his money on for a long time.
Nitey-nite.
Haloscan is just too uncooperative to deal with.
Pyschology and metaphysics!!.. so we are officially running our economic policy based on shamanism.. Am I supposed to find this funny or tragic?
Though Ben Bernanke dressed as a shaman, might bring some much needed decorum to the Fed.
Bank of England sails into uncharted waters
Commentary: UK central bank takes Samuel Pepys and William III in tow
By David Marsh, MarketWatch
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- When interest rates approach zero, analysis of monetary policy has less to do with economics and extends more into the realm of psychology and metaphysics.
Russia is a jungle full of various creatures. They are all corrupt and violent and when one species of animal is on top there are no bounds to its cruelty to the ones below. Its not just the criminals. Its part of the culture to have little respect for human life and for human decency. I, for one, am glad that the KGB is in power. At least their corruption is organized and centralized. Democracy can not work in that place. Very glad my parents brought me here.
Their radio ads were really annoying...although since I've mostly stopped listening to the over the air radio I guess it doesn't mean much to me. Based on my limited experience with jewelers, they rip you off anyway...so good riddance.
"listed both assets and debt of $100 million to $500 million..."
Bernie's accountants sure get around. How the hell do you have business books that have a debt and asset estimates? How the hell do those estimates have a 500% delta?
Sheesh!
Nostrovia,
Yes, Russia wants what it considers its commercial due. But even if Ukraine were to pay full price matters would not end there.
Pavel Chichikov | 01.12.09 - 6:44 pm | #
Thanks for the big picture focus - I have been looking at the proximate issue for restoring gas supply to the Eurozone - large second order effects for both the proximate and larger problems.
Pavel,
The European natural gas supply is the most interesting story out there until the Bulgaria - Black Sea - Italy route is completed. The Germans have their own Schroeder line coming too.
Until then Russia is within its rights to expect payment at market price, even if that is an increase of several multiples over the old puppet state pricing.
Because of Russia's reserves under pressure and a demanding budget domestically, it is not so much about politics which are secondary for now.
I feel bad for the Bulgarians, but at least the inadvertent pressure may help the citizens flush out some corruption. No beer production, no heat, and $70/month pensions = united in anger. Bulgaria btw had successfully negotiated a cheap price, but the Ukraine cutoff is impacting them and steel plants halted taking out maybe 15% of GDP instantly
If say the Ukraine was using the natural gas to subsidize steel production, then why is it Russia's responsibility. Why not ... the EU?
That's what it comes down to, Russia would rather have money than allegiance for now. They don't have to worry about market destruction because alternative routes are under construction.
I wouldn't draw too many examples from Georgia, which was an exceptional situation between Saakashvili and Blackwater. Too bad for them, maybe the geographic benefits make for reconciliations with Armenia
Damn, I'm glad I don't live in Russia. I always rail and fume at the corruption of US Politics, but I forget how much worse it could be.
"Its not just the criminals. Its part of the culture to have little respect for human life and for human decency."
No, there are wonderful people in that country, people who would literally risk their lives for you. True friends. But there are also the other kind. It's not the West.
How the hell do those estimates have a 500% delta?
It's simply a checkbox on the standard BK filings.
Reminds me of a Family Guy clip
She'll Pretty Much Have To
Pavel, few, far between and powerless.
From: General Fulda, British Protecterate
To: Central Command
All is in place for the push to Iceland, however
troops getting restless, damp gloomy weather is hard to live with for extended periods. We have started band competitions and soccer leagues to moderate morale.
Fulda OUT
EOM
Comrade Misean is Dope writes:
"listed both assets and debt of $100 million to $500 million..."
Bernie's accountants sure get around. How the hell do you have business books that have a debt and asset estimates? How the hell do those estimates have a 500% delta?
==========
1 word. Goodwill
We need to switch to a pure cash flow accounting system. Have multiple layers. Layer 1, booked transactions. Layer 2, fixed contracts with expectation to complete. Layer 3, expected or speculative transactions. Have the books extend as far into the future as they have deals written for.
Then you don't need goodwill, and such buyout differences can just be taken as differences in discount values or a mental disorder
Small diamonds will keep you fed when the trucks stop running. I'd let loose of them reluctantly.
Volker the Viking | 01.12.09 - 6:23 pm | #
And they don't light up the metal detectors and are easy to hide from imaging machines if properly camouflaged.
"That's what it comes down to, Russia would rather have money than allegiance for now."
Maybe, I have no special access to what's going on there. I don't think they would turn down allegiance either, nor ignore that factor. They are playing a deep game, for big stakes.
"No, there are wonderful people in that country, people who would literally risk their lives for you. True friends. But there are also the other kind. It's not the West."
&
"Pavel, few, far between and powerless."
both true in their own ways, it's a different world for sure
JimPortlandOR wrote:
guy gives a 'too big' engagement ring = little penis
JimPortlandOR | 01.12.09 - 5:37 pm | #
N'cest pas! A small uneducated and untalented tongue perhaps, but small unit...I don't know.
My wife lost her $5000 1k engagement ring a few weeks ago. She replaced it with a 1.25k cubic. It's a better size, looks nicer, and she knows no one thinks it's fake since it's obviously in an engagement ring setting. She likes it even better because she feels "smart", frugal, and thinks she is "getting away" with something.
As they say frugal is the new black.
BondsOfSteel wrote:
single, never married... not bitter->
BondsOfSteel | 01.12.09 - 5:44 pm | #
AND in the United State...SMART!
When they have nothing left to lose, suddenly the powerless become all powerful. At the moment the social contract becomes void for lack of consideration is the moment. And this comes like a reversal of the earth's magnetic poles.
Damn it all to hell why did I not correct that second sentence, it sounds retarded.
Quincy k writes:
for all your investors(gamblers) going long or short, they have a pretty interesting chart on the similarities of now and the 1929 bear market over at 321gold.com. The thread is For The Record.
Apparantly, mid-April 2009 will be the top of this current bear market rally.
very eery similarities regarding specific dates and percentage losses and gains.
Don't get too caught up in the "history repeats itself" paradigm when it comes to broader market prices. Such comparisons are promulgated by folks with too much analytical time on their hands. No two market breaks share the exact same circumstances or timetables, and monetary circumstances in 1929 were vastly different from today's post-Bretton-Woods hyper-Keynesian psycho-monetarist trainwreck.
It's not near being upon us, but once economic recovery begins it will be Tajikistan and Kazahkstan that are key to the world's political future. Monarchs won't last, and the resources will continue to grow in value while becoming more accessible to world markets.
In that I mean a country like Brazil has an good future, but along a stable path of progress. The central Asian 'stans are very much wild cards that only grow more valuable the longer they are not played
"but along a stable path of progress"
hence the motto on the flag
I have never bought a diamond. Ipso facto, I have never been married and have no debt. Coincidence?
Re: "At the moment the social contract becomes void for lack of consideration is the moment."
I am pretty sure I wrote that same sentence on a Contracts exam. Time pressure, you know...
Never forget who initiated the squeeze.
Russia is squeezing former satellites/Europeans. Russia itself is squeezed by the falling energy prices. The continentals will pick up the tab eventually. Russia will be happy with equivalent of $60bbl. The quid pro quo is the northern route to A'stan.
Similar play on a smaller scale elsewhere. World Bank is now the beacon of ethics and standards. Watch Indian IT companies implode and getting blacklisted. The squeeze is on Indians to undertake other outsourcing jobs. aka boots on the ground in A'stan.
A wife and children which are properly raised and provided for seem more and more like luxuries I cannot afford without becoming a beast of burden in an unjust economy.
If you want to invest in precious gem stones, and are worried about future market supply. Look at Opal. Rare, historically pretty and valuable, and beyond the potential for a synthetic supply for another century
Serf #1,
You are intentionally simplifying Gazprom to meet your own world view.
What are we to learn from Bolivia and Brazil then?
I am pretty sure I wrote that same sentence on a Contracts exam. Time pressure, you know...
Reviewing the internal emails of these financial companies is killing my soul.
@Hoopajoops, LTD | 01.12.09 - 7:15 pm
I don't know what is worse, the stuff they write internally or the nonsense they email out to clients.
Wow, the Shane Company is big in local radio. Shane commercials are always playing on the radio.
I just hope that the radio stations keep going. All the new bandwidth and no sponsors.
In the bronze age, there were four great civilizations on earth. The were located in China, India, Egypt and Babylon. There was little or no communications among them, at least initially.
Each of the four civilizations determined on their own that gold, silver and precious stones were stores of great value.
All of these civilizations lasted at least 700 years at the top of their games.
The U.S. was the world's greatest economic power, and you could argue the world's greatest civilization, for 59 years, from 1941 through 1999.
Jewelry stores aren't going down because precious stones are no longer valuable. They will be more valuable than ever in a world of infinite money. Jewelry stores are going down because there are too many of them, and what they are selling is no longer all that precious or valuable.
Nonsense is the perfect word to describe it. Nonsense.
I think our markets have been overcome by mysticism -- oracular quants -- ironically virgins -- breathing deeply of volcanic gasses and issuing forth complicated models and spreadsheets, and unordained coming down from the mountain interpreting these utterances in whatever smooth way induces the deal to be made, taking only a modest 5% for uttering posideon's will and saving the entire athenian fleet from bad weather.
Hoopajoops, LTD:
Do you have any hypothetical examples for such internal e-mails?
As a follow-up, how much of internal e-mail is actually business related? My experience is that when the money is rolling in on wheel barrows, so are the parties and office hookups. I am frequently surprised that some people do not understand how to separate personal e-mail from work ones with different accounts
In this credit squeeze Bolivia is roadkill and Brazil is taking some collateral damage. Heck even the friendly commodity exporters up north and down under are taking one for the team.
Re: "I think our markets have been overcome by mysticism"
Fabulous rant. I was thinking more of the temp who, until he got caught, closed service-related emails to customers with "Hakuna Matata."
Holy Shit!! Not Shane. They are too big to fail.
US Army chopper crashed on Texas A&M campus
Seriously, who gives a rat's ass about Shane? I want to see Macy's and Dillards and Sears and Montgomery Ward go BK.
Nude(Unrated) writes:
\tIn 20 years, I expect to be able to pick up a leather-bound copy of "The Dismantling of America: Chronicles from the pages of Calculated Risk.
Seriously, coming here is like Headline News without the spin.
Nude | 01.12.09 - 5:52 pm | #
That's quite appropriate. Last night, when doing a search, I came across some google-indexed CR pages at haloscan from a few years back. I got lost for a few hours in the neverending path of discovery that lead me down.
You are dead right in that prediction.
RevolutionWillNotBeTelevised -- great news, ... until we are hunted down by the NWO because we know too much
US Army chopper crashed on Texas A&M campus
Anonymous | 01.12.09 - 7:26 pm | #
Good. Hopefully it crashed on the sacred plot of grass in the Quadrangle.
Giggum, Aggies!!
Those corp guys at A&M are freaks.
Anonymous writes:
If you want to invest in precious gem stones, and are worried about future market supply. Look at Opal. Rare, historically pretty and valuable, and beyond the potential for a synthetic supply for another century
Anonymous I disagree it's harder to find a buyer for a used opal then a used diamond 95% of the time .Disclaimer I own a pawnshop
ow YOU have a friend in the diamond bankruptcy business!
Doesn't GM own Opal?
Morocco Bama,
Nostrovia,
"Doesn't GM own Opal?"
Yes they own Opel and Dawooe, Vaxhall, Holden and some others. GM corporate website lists all of them and their websites.
Jewelry stores are going down because there are too many of them, and what they are selling is no longer all that precious or valuable.
rich | 01.12.09 - 7:20 pm | #
The jewelry stores are going down because they are too heavily leveraged in fiat and in this environment can no longer cash flow in said fiat because volume and margin are too low. It is a recipe for disaster.
On the other hand had they NOT LEVERED UP they would be fine.
A local independent jeweler I know [does work for our family] will NEVER fail. Why? He owns all his stones & gold free and clear [he calls it his internally matched 401K]... he owns his store free and clear [never resisted the temptation to sell out at the RE peak] and if worse comes to worse he can move into the apartment above his store [he currently rents it out]. If worse comes to worse - he'll just hibernate until the recovery. If no recovery comes he'll retire... he has enough inventory owned free and clear to last him two lifetimes at his 'frugal' lifestyle. He has been buying gold & gem stones on the dips for three decades. Nice.
"will take whatever actions are necessary to adjust expense levels and inventory spend to sales trends during 2009." -Zales
Ruh Roh Raggy
Obama Adviser: Stimulus Won't Be Sexist, Not Just Help For "Burly Men"
Obama Adviser: Stimulus Won't Be Sexist, Not Just Help For "Burly Men"
Christina Romer, using YouTube to discuss the contours of a potentially $1 trillion stimulus, you get a sense of the kind of political pressures facing Obama's economic gurus.
Romer, during the nine-minute long clip, recounts how shortly after her appointment was announced, she received an email from a women's group expressing concern that any stimulus effort would disproportionately aid "burly men."
dryfly,
"He owns all his stones & gold free and clear"
That kind of handcrafted stuff almost always holds up...I'm assuming he's a craftsman first and foremost...Most retail stuff is crappy baubles...and try getting the sales staff to show you what you ask for...
I could go on...
Nostrovia,
OT:
The front page headline in this week's Atlanta Business Chronicle perdicts that 50 Georgia banks will be closed this year. The 12/31/08 call reports are supposed to be fugly. Most of the problem banks are in the metro Atlanta area.
It's a good time to own a pizza place in Atlanta.
Well I guess he won't be going to Jareds or Shanes. More likely he'll be going to the unemployment office in 2009.
Nemo writes:
Diamonds are pure carbon, the fourth most common element in the universe.
How could so many be convinced they are precious stones? Are people really that stupid? Apparently, they are.
Ya but most of this Carbon is graphite...better known as pencil lead.
Its what form the carbon takes that makes it rare
Nor Car --
Its what form the carbon takes that makes it rare
In this case, the "form" is "under the control of a single global cartel".
Diamonds are not rare. Period.
Comrade Kristina,
"...he..."
A vague pronoun, with no referent, is no basis for a coherent sentence.
Nostrovia,
But I want it all...
Boston's Hancock Tower Goes Into Default
Broadway Partners, the heavily indebted private equity firm that purchased Bostons landmark Hancock Tower at the top of the market in 2006 defaulted on a key loan payment last week. The iconic office building is a trophy property in the heart of Boston's Back Bay district. The real estate fund manager purchased the property for $1.3 billion from Beacon Capital Partners, but the office tower now appears to be headed toward foreclosure.
Defunct Lehman Brothers, described a few months ago by the New York Times as a "real estate ATM" arranged a $472 million mezzanine loan to help fund the acquisition, behind Royal Bank of Scotland's first mortgage in the amount of $640 million. The RBS loan was arranged by its real estate affiliate, Greenwich Capital Markets. The Boston Globe reported earlier that the property was worth no more than $1 billion, according a local real estate executive with access to the numbers.
REIT Wrecks | High Yield REITs and Commercial Real Estate
Now Misean, you'll mess up my snark with good grammar...
You don't have to go to Russia to see cops being killed and their heads severed. Just go to Mexico. Much closer.
Comrade Janosik if you are still here and wouldn't mind wandering OT.
I recall you mentioning spending time in Slovakia. My grandfather on my fathers side was from an area of Hungary that is now in present day Slovakia. I have never been over there but would love to make the trip someday.
It looks like someday may come later rather sooner given the economy but anyway. Do you have any knowledge of the Gemer or Gomor region of Slovakia. I am particularly interested in a town called Kamenany that was called Kovi previously. My grandfather - who died before I could was old enough to remember - came here as a young child circa 1917 from there. I was hoping to get a sense for what the area is like - I imagine it is pretty rural - not much to see on Google Earth.
Sorry everyone else for the OT...
Is it just me or do we have a pretty good number of Eastern European posters here? Could it be they are quick to recognize an Empire in collapse and therefore found their way to CR faster than others? Just a thought...
As a follow-up, how much of internal e-mail is actually business related?
No idea, all the non-business stuff is screened out by lower attorneys before I get to see it. Occasionally one will leak through that fills me with rage -- after losing a lot of money, a shrug shoulders email idly wondering where the kids should go for holiday, paris or martha's vineyard, wondering where the better shopping is for the kids.
_____________, the heavily indebted private equity firm that purchased ______________ at the top of the market in [2003-2006] defaulted on a key loan payment last week.
Back OT somewhat. Anyone see what the Nikkei is doing?
Looks like down 367 according to Bloomberg 8647 or so. They are trying to catch the Dow...
That kind of handcrafted stuff almost always holds up...I'm assuming he's a craftsman first and foremost
Comrade Misean is Dope | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 7:44 pm | #
OUTSTANDING craftsman - seriously good stuff. My wife's family has regionally renowned craftsmen & artists in it [my wife could have been - elected not to go that route - it takes real fire & dedication & she didn't have it... skill yes, dedication no].
Anyway I got to talk to this jeweler quite often 'cause his kid & mine played on some hockey teams together - we were each others captive audience. He said it was a conscious effort on his part to accumulate 'physical' every chance he got - both stones and metal. If he needed ounces to work with he bought ten percent more... has been doing that for 30 years. He wants his 'craft skills' to pay then nut but if that fails - he has a fall back. Lotsa fall back. He won't be filing BK anytime soon unlike the 'chains'.
One hell of an interesting guy.
And the American "tradition" of the diamond engagement ring was literally created by an advertising campaign in the 1930s.
In 1919, De Beers experienced a drop in diamond sales that lasted for two decades. So in the 1930s it turned to the firm N.W. Ayer to devise a national advertising campaignstill relatively rare at the timeto promote its diamonds. Ayer convinced Hollywood actresses to wear diamond rings in public, and, according to Edward Jay Epstein in The Rise and Fall of the Diamond, encouraged fashion designers to discuss the new "trend" toward diamond rings. Between 1938 and 1941, diamond sales went up 55 percent."
(source)
People really are stunningly stupid.
Is it just me or do we have a pretty good number of Eastern European posters here? Could it be they are quick to recognize an Empire in collapse and therefore found their way to CR faster than others? Just a thought...
Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 7:53 pm | #
I think they're here because they're waiting for your Homepage to go "All Nude."
More junk science debunked (I knew it was getting COLDER):
"Today we are again at the peak, and near the end of a warm interglacial. The earth is DUE TO ENTER THE NEXT ICE AGE. If we are lucky, we may have a few years to prepare for it. The Ice Age will return, (as it always has) in its regular and natural cycle, with or without any influence from the effects of AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming).
The central piece of evidence that is cited in support of the AGW theory is the famous hockey stick graph which was presented by Al Gore in his 2006 film An Inconvenient Truth. The hockey stick graph shows an acute upward spike in global temperatures which began during the 1970s and continued through the winter of 2006/07. However, this warming trend was interrupted when the winter of 2007/8 delivered the deepest snow cover to the Northern Hemisphere since 1966 and the coldest temperatures since 2001. It now appears that the current Northern Hemisphere winter of 2008/09 will probably equal or surpass the winter of 2007/08 for both snow depth and cold temperatures."
"The main flaw in the AGW theory is that its proponents focus on evidence from only the past one thousand years at most, while ignoring the evidence from the past million years -- evidence which is essential for a true understanding of climatology."
Earth on the Brink of an Ice Age - Pravda.Ru
Go long on winter wear and thermal blankets.
RE,
Best Buy SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO ruined that song.
Nostrovia,
USG , the heavily indebted private equity firm that purchased everything at the top of the market in [2007-2009] defaulted on a key loan payment this week.
Basel Too | 01.12.09 - 7:53 pm | # There I added my 2 cents
PIRATE IS DEAD ON ARRR-IVAL
nice, lol
Is the world supposed to end at the beginning or the end of 2012?
I think they're here because they're waiting for your Homepage to go "All Nude."
Morocco Bama
Interesting idea, times are getting tough and CR posters are about the only people with any money left nowadays...Business opportunities abound, even in hard times...Ha.
Morocco Bama writes:
Good. Hopefully it crashed on the sacred plot of grass in the Quadrangle.
========
I trust you were not aware that there was a death in the crash
Black Star Ranch - I went to the beach yesterday and it was too hot for my clothes, so I went out in the surf in just shorts. I'm very sensitive to cold. This is the frigid bay area. It's not getting colder, it's not getting warmer. It's getting weirder. I should not be experiencing beach weather in this area on Jan 11 in the dead of winter. Birds are doing their spring mating calls and displays outside my office window. Last year at NYU, it was so warm that our cherry trees blossomed in the dead of winter as well. Shits getting weird. Climate weirding.
We're all experiencing a once in a lifetime (nay, once in a century or more) moment we can tell the grandkids about: the Time When No One Was in Charge.
It's clear that the good and the great have no idea what's going on, and the rude and the crude haven't yet flooded in to take advantage of the vacuum (YET).
This could be the freest moment any of us will ever know.
You don't have to go to Russia to see cops being killed and their heads severed. Just go to Mexico. Much closer.
Dougie944 | 01.12.09 - 7:51 pm | #
Warmer too and better food.
Best Buy SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO ruined that song.
Comrade Misean is Dope | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 7:56 pm | #
I agree but I LOVE the Brian May guitar in that piece. He is IMO one of the greatest electric guitar players ever. BTW, as an interesting aside, Brian May is also an astrophysici
Morocco Bama(Unrated) writes:
US Army chopper crashed on Texas A&M campus
Anonymous | 01.12.09 - 7:26 pm | #
Good.
Uncalled for sir.
The article requested is no longer available.
People really are stunningly stupid.
Nemo | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 7:55 pm | #
Indeed, they are. What a nonsensical tradition. My wife didn't want an engagement ring. We both have gold wedding bands.
My brother's wife inidcated that she will be updating her enagagement and wedding rings to bigger stones soon. It's the latest trend....or, at least it was until recently. That trend may reverse now, considering. Personally, if me was he, I would tell her to lose 45 pounds and study the Karma Sutra if she wants the update.....and learn how to cook.
Guess everyone went to Jared.
Pool table stores will also go out of business. Every house I look at that is a short sale or more is empty except for the pool table. This is in the 600k plus houses. It was like:
"Honey if you let me get this house you can get the pool table you always wanted"
"Mumble. Ok."
CK,
"Now Misean, you'll mess up my snark with good grammar..."
Can't do that.
dryfly,
As I suspected. I find most good craftsman interesting...
In fact, costume computers were a little side business of mine, before making it a career. Only build them for myself now.
Nostrovia,
I used to manufacture jewelery. Colombian emeralds are may favourite stones. The best part is working the metal - casting it. It was great to learn technology 1000's years old. The funnest part was selling diamonds and watching the interaction between the engagement couples about to marry - watching the woman's eyes glaze over looking at a stone. And the man's reaction to the price. Silly possessions. Not depression proof at all. My advise would be to buy an extra generator.
"Today we are again at the peak, and near the end of a warm interglacial. The earth is DUE TO ENTER THE NEXT ICE AGE. If we are lucky, we may have a few years to prepare for it. The Ice Age will return, (as it always has) in its regular and natural cycle, with or without any influence from the effects of AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming).
Black Star Ranch | 01.12.09 - 7:56 pm | #
Yipppeee - we'll have hockey all year!
Climate "weirding" sums it up best imo. I noticed about eight years ago that fall would come earlier, we just had a very chilly November in Florida. Now we have all our trees spitting pollen in January. It's almost as if the Seasons are shifting.
Really, global warming or cooling is a secondary debate. The main thing to realize is that you cannot keep on dumping in CO2 into the atmosphere and expect the ecosystem to balance... well, balance in a way that is favorable to our continued "Business-As-Usual" survival. Carbon balances are well known and no one disputes certain facts (like, what happens when the pH of the oceans in the world change due to absorbing so much more CO2 than normal in such a short period of time?)
People really have to read more scientific papers written by those who aren't left or right wing hucksters. The information is fairly conclusive.
Hot tub stores - Doomed.
The Spa's in the strip malls - Doomed
Artsy little stores in strip malls that sell ceramic cats and wind chimes - Doomed
Boating supply stores - Doomed
Climate "weirding" sums it up best imo.
With or without global warming, there is some crazy ass environmental stuff happening. Bee colonies collapsing, deadpools, bats disappearing, etc.
With or without global warming, there is some crazy ass environmental stuff happening
Just one of the Signs of the End Times. When white people will float into the sky to embrace that blond Jeebus. I can't wait.
Harley stores - doomed
Uncalled for sir.
404 - Page Not Found gD95LT5I82
tg is a born & bred dope in a | 01.12.09 - 8:02 pm | #
Posting that chopper crash to this thread as though it's more newsworthy than the slaughter in Gaza is uncalled for. It's an army chopper. When you sign up, you sign up to die, and support a death machine that pillages and plunders the planet.
My comment was intended to raise ire. Let's have some persective.
One of the other important consequenses of dumping more carbon into the atmosphere is that lots of it ends up in the ocean (apx 40%) where it turns into carbolic acid and acidifies they oceans. This makes it harder for caclium carbonate to form. Why care about calcium carbonate? Because it forms the shells of stuff like clam shells and corals. Very important links in the ocean food chains. We are already seeing major ocean fisheries crash due to over fishing. Losing the oceans would not be good for world food supplies
ac,
"Is the world supposed to end at the beginning or the end of 2012?"
I remembered reading it had a several year range around 2012. History channel show I watched over the weekend mentioned same.
CK,
"Business opportunities abound, even in hard times...Ha."
You've got to watch the word "hard" sometimes.
nova,
""Honey if you let me get this house you can get the pool table you always wanted""
At least she didn't ask for a diamond.
Nostrovia,
My comment was intended to raise ire. Let's have some persective.
Yeah! Did his severed head roll through the grass! C'mon. Did any children die?
Speak for yourself, I happen to enjoy cabbage soup. Bean burritos on the other hand do not agree with me.
Anonymous, you're wrong about the time till we make a synthetic opal. Quality Synthetic Opal Jewelry from Opal Dreams just for one example.
Folks, we've gotten good enough that just about every gemstone can be manufactured in the lab. In a handful of cases the synthetic costs as much as the natural (usually semi-precious), but usually they're cheaper. Some of them can be identified as synthetic, but the "common" test is they're "too good". Now since for almost every stone the better the quality the more it's worth, this test winds up putting a cap on the stones' worth.
The second thing of which to beware is the multitude of tricks to "improve" the natural stones. These usually involve soaking or washing the stone in a chemical substance that enhances the color. If you know what you're looking for (experience) and you look carefully enough you can tell before you buy. If you buy without knowing then try to sell to someone who does know how to tell, you can take a major loss (if you're lucky, that's all you'll take).
Ironically, if you're looking to use gems as a wealth transportation device and you're not an expert, you're probably better served to take lesser grade precious stones. That, or good but not excellent grades of various semi-precious stones. Both still cost a fair amount, but the grade pretty well ensures to the buyer on the other end that they're natural - you're not going to eat a loss over accusations of fakery. Even so, take time to research the ways of faking up the quality of what you're considering purchasing to avoid buying REALLY BAD stones that have been enhanced to medium quality.
Rice shame-faced by Bush over UN Gaza vote: Olmert
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
"She was left shamed. A resolution that she prepared and arranged, and in the end she did not vote in favour," Olmert said in a speech in the southern town of Ashkelon.
"In the night between Thursday and Friday, when the secretary of state wanted to lead the vote on a ceasefire at the Security Council, we did not want her to vote in favour," Olmert said.
"I said 'get me President Bush on the phone'. They said he was in the middle of giving a speech in Philadelphia. I said I didn't care. 'I need to talk to him now'. He got off the podium and spoke to me.
"I told him the United States could not vote in favour. It cannot vote in favour of such a resolution. He immediately called the secretary of state and told her not to vote in favour."
Just one of the Signs of the End Times.
Apparently, churches are also guilty of rosy estimates and high leverage.
It seems to me then that the arbiter of gemstone quality/rarity should be what it always was:
Sheer, freaking SIZE.
Can you make a synthetic diamond that's absolutely gigantic and yet really high quality? If so, how expensive is it to manage to make?
Something comical just remembered. I could write a 1/3 of a book on one incident in the J trade. How my head jeweler "V" and his wife were conned out of all the jewelery by a 75 year old man . What an artist he was. It took him six weeks, but he got all of the kid's valuable possessions, and NONE of us saw it coming, although at least six so-called street savvy people, all of us in our 20's, and from the toughest block in town watched it play out. The guy was a master... hehe..
I wish i could write plays..it would be a perfect plot.
Yeah! Did his severed head roll through the grass! C'mon. Did any children die?
nova | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 8:10 pm | #
Not sure what you're on about with the severed head and children. Nobody here advocated that. In fact, quite the opposite. That's what Macho Brave Army Men like those Aggies are doing in Gaza right now (the IDF version, although they're one and the same in sentiment, just different uniforms) ....and have done in Iraq for the past 5 years. Fallujah, anyone?
"Warmer too and better food."
Warmer? Hotter! And can you get good stinky herring in Mexico?
Pool table stores will also go out of business. Every house I look at that is a short sale or more is empty except for the pool table. This is in the 600k plus houses. It was like:
nova | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 8:02 pm | #
A couple years ago a company I was selling stuff for had a sales promotion - the guy who sold the most was going to win this HUGE pool table. I didn't win [the guy covering Detroit won - it was an automotive product so no surprise]. Any way I was good friends with the sales manager and I asked him... 'WTF? If I win the damned thing where would I put it - in the back yard?' There was no place in my 1915 house for something like that - we wouldn't even have room in the living room. The things are massive and weigh a ton! He and I had some chuckles over that one - I told him the NEXT sales promotion needs to be bamboo fly rods - that is something every sensible person would want.
kahni,
"People really have to read more scientific papers written by those who aren't left or right wing hucksters. The information is fairly conclusive."
Yep.
"What it means
The authors state that "change in the carbon dioxide concentration of the atmosphere is commonly regarded as a likely forcing mechanism on global climate over geological time because of its large and predictable effect on temperature," which "predictable effect" is that increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration cause higher temperatures to occur and that decreases in atmospheric CO2 concentration cause lower temperatures to occur. Their data, however, clearly demonstrate that this incredibly common assumption is just plain false.
Starting 60 million years before present (BP), the authors have the atmosphere's CO2 concentration at approximately 3600 ppm and the oxygen isotope ratio at about 0.3 per mil. Thirteen million years later, however, the air's CO2 concentration has dropped all the way down to 500 ppm; but the oxygen isotope ratio has dropped (implying a rise in temperature) to zero, which is, of course, just the opposite of what one would expect from the "large and predictable effect" of CO2 on temperature that is commonly assumed.
Next comes a large spike in the air's CO2 content, all the way up to a value of 2400 ppm. And what does the oxygen isotope ratio do? It rises slightly (implying temperature falls slightly) to about 0.4 per mil, which is again just the opposite of what one would expect from the "large and predictable effect" of CO2 on temperature that is commonly assumed.
After the spike in CO2, of course, the air's CO2 concentration drops dramatically, declining to a minimum value of close to what it is today. And the oxygen isotope ratio? It barely changes at all, defying once again the common assumption of the "large and predictable effect" of CO2 on temperature."
Nostrovia,
nova | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 8:05 pm | #
Except those catering to Somali pirates... go long those suckers.
Boating supply stores - Doomed
nova | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 8:05 pm | #
Except those catering to Somali pirates... go long those suckers.
[corrected - blame the wine not the wino]
"Last year at NYU, it was so warm that our cherry trees blossomed in the dead of winter as well."
IIRC, it was the Dept. of Agriculture that has shifted our DC-northern Virginia climate south one planting-growing category, so that we are now effectively in middle-southern Virginia. Ask your local seed and plant store around here.
Pool table stores will also go out of business
Dr. Cue Billiards - Seattle, WA, 98155 - Citysearch
Dr Billiards is gone, leaving a "for lease" sign behind. I drove by this weekend. No alcohol, just custom cues and 9 ft tables at $5 / hr.
.
dryfly,
"I told him the NEXT sales promotion needs to be bamboo fly rods"
Or a nice case of ammo, your choice of caliber.
Nostrovia,
Warmer? Hotter! And can you get good stinky herring in Mexico?
Pavel Chichikov | 01.12.09 - 8:16 pm | #
And the borscht - positively awful.
Let's hope Jellystone doesn't erupt. The oceans may turn to hydrogen sulfide. Stock Market would still rally though, I bet.
Global Warming Led To Atmospheric Hydrogen Sulfide And Permian Extinction
Whoops. Nikkei now down 404 to 8432. News is citing strength in yen as a reason for the decline.
"And the borscht - positively awful.
;)"
There's probably a very expensive Russian restaurant in Mexico city where you can get all that stuff.
excellent post, kirk. forgeries are indeed a factor in almost every category of collectible, making the provenance often as much part of an item's value as the item itself. i'd love to see a general survey of this asset class in this deflationary winter outside of art auction headlines and low-volume ebay trades.
There's probably a very expensive Russian restaurant in Mexico city where you can get all that stuff.
Pavel Chichikov | 01.12.09 - 8:26 pm | #
Yeah, they'll make you an offer you can't refuse.
Or a nice case of ammo, your choice of caliber.
Comrade Misean is Dope | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 8:21 pm | #
Actually THAT would go over big - all of us would have hustled over that. We were all hunters at one time [past or present].
Did you hear about what happened after an Aggie moved to Oklahoma?
The average IQ went up in both states.
Comrade Misean is Dope,
You, sir, rock...you might be interested in or already be familiar with the concept of the "Medieval Warm Period"...something additional to consider when thinking about CO2.
"Let's hope Jellystone doesn't erupt. The oceans may turn to hydrogen sulfide."
"Astronomers all over the world have advised that a high-orbit long period comet has suddenly appeared out of the direction of the sun. The core is 20 kilometers in diameter, and the effect on our planet will be catastrophic. The impact will take place in 48 hours. The ------- press spokesman has issued an appeal to the public to remain calm and avoid panic."
[Satire, no panic please].
It's almost as if the Seasons are shifting.
Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 8:04 pm | #
I agree, Kristina, and I share your observations.
Why do Aggies have doormats inside their homes?
So they can wipe their feet before they go out.
ova writes:
Hot tub stores - Doomed.
The Spa's in the strip malls - Doomed
Artsy little stores in strip malls that sell ceramic cats and wind chimes - Doomed
Boating supply stores - Doomed
Vegetable seed stores-- Boom!
Larry Kudlow is an ass!
"The Vostok data graph also shows that changes in global CO2 levels lag behind global temperature changes by about eight hundred years. What that indicates is that global temperatures precede or cause global CO2 changes, and not the reverse. In other words, increasing atmospheric CO2 is not causing global temperature to rise; instead the natural cyclic increase in global temperature is causing global CO2 to rise."
Pavel, what are you worried about? At least you're going to heaven.
re climate changes... Go to your local garden club - the one filled with elderly women and gentlemen who've been planting since the state was welcomed to the union - and get into a discussion about planting dates. You'll discover that over the past decade they've shifted to be earlier by a couple of weeks.
If you have one of the specialists who liked to grow edge-of-zone plants, they'll tell you how it used to be too cold - or how it's now too hot, depending on the plant - and so they either no longer grow it or have to go an extra mile for success.
Most have also noted other climate changes - temperature changes have other effects. Rain patterns are the most frequently cited, just as an example.
These amateur practical scientists (they keep records, I'll keep the label) are the best reference I've found to 'what's going on' - something, or nothing. It's pretty consistently "something", and most tend to being it's generally warmer.
Larry Kudlow is an ass!
Johnny Mustardseed | 01.12.09 - 8:36 pm | #
I think the guy's a closet cross dresser.....not that there's anything wrong with that, but there's no need to hide it.
More thoughts on jewelery. Quoting myself, just like 'there is only ever one currency', there is only ever one monetarised metal. Gold is a shadow currency because humans over the last 10,000 years made it so. It's the only alternative to holding something that is not a promise to pay. All precious stones are dumb investments - from one who understands the trade. (perhaps opals are the worst, although they are all in the same bucket). Gold does not require an appraiser's signature. Case closed.
Nikkei already ahead of Dow on the way down. Will Dow catch up tomorrow? Stay tuned...
Why does the stadium at College Station have Astroturf?
To keep the cheerleaders from grazing during halftime.
Kudlow is a cross dressing dry drunk.
But I got the mustard seed in my sack and I am going cross country. Your problems are over.
Why not hold more silver? I understand that gold is more valuable by mass, but the lower value of silver should mean that it is more easy to spend and functions better as a means of exchange. Hard to get change nowadays.
FDIC will open new Atlanta office in 3 months.
Ok, did the much-hated shopping for biz wear on Sunday. Haven't bought a suit in ten years, and they were getting a little less than fresh after each dryclean. And the really nice ones had had the pockets darned because my wallet stuffed with stupid store cards had rubbed through.
Step one: clear wallet of cards suggesting I might be saving $10 a year of stuff I don't usually buy.
Step two: go scope a major, like Bloomies, discover to heart palpitations that most suits are in the $600-$1300 range.
Step three: despair, then remember Filene's Basement is down the road.
Step four: spend several hours in Filene's trying sh!t on, loathing most minutes of it.
Step five: walk out with two great pinstripe suits, 5 shirts, and a bunch of other stuff for much less than the Bloomie minimum prices would allow.
The discount model worked. But how's the standard model? Noy good, I suspect.
C
Morocco Bama writes:
Why does the stadium at College Station have Astroturf?
To keep the cheerleaders from grazing during halftime.
Morocco Bama | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 8:40 pm | #
Field is grass and the "cheer leaders" are all male.
"Pavel, what are you worried about? At least you're going to heaven."
I believe in an afterlife, MB. Where I end up is not my decision. However, the Judge is, one might say, an infinitely nicer guy than any of us. We have hope. Our merits don't get us into heaven. His love gets us in.
Sir Walter Raleigh, The Passionate Man's Pilgrimage [excerpt]:
"...From thence to heavens's bribeless hall,
Where no corrupted voices brawl ;
No conscience molten into gold,
No forged accuser bought or sold,
No cause deferred, nor vain-spent journey ;
For there Christ is the King's Attorney,
Who pleads for all without degrees,
And he hath angels, but no fees.
And when the grand twelve-million jury
Of our sins, with direful fury,
'Gainst our souls black verdicts give,
Christ pleads his death, and then we live.
Be thou my speaker, taintless pleader,
Unblotted lawyer, true proceeder !
Thou giv'st salvation even for alms ;
Not with a bribèd lawyer's palms.
And this is my eternal plea
To him that made heaven, earth, and sea,
That, since my flesh must die so soon,
And want a head to dine next noon,
Just at the stroke, when my veins start and spread,
Set on my soul an everlasting head.
Then am I ready, like a palmer fit ;
To tread those blest paths which before I writ."
FFDIC writes:
FDIC will open new Atlanta office in 3 months.
Why? They are a failed institution, the TARP has bailed out 220 banks that would have failed. They have $34 billion guaranteeing $11 Trillion in assets. Shut it down, it is a joke
Field is grass and the "cheer leaders" are all male.
NOT Irving Fisher! | 01.12.09 - 8:45 pm | #
It was astroturf when they created the joke, although the cheerleaders were male then, too.
No male cheerleaders. That's blasphemy. What's wrong with those freaks? Must have boobums.
"...instead the natural cyclic increase in global temperature is causing global CO2 to rise."
The natural cycle doesn't build coal-fired power plants in China.
I wish i could write plays..it would be a perfect plot.
Kondratieff canuk | 01.12.09 - 8:15 pm | #
Simpsons did it. Monorail. I miss Phil Hartman.
The natural cycle does withstand volcanoes and forest fires spanning an entire continent, though.
By the way, Pavel, I think you're a beautiful person. I have my own faith, yet I am awed by the grace in yours.
"The natural cycle does withstand volcanoes "
Large volcanic eruptions cause short-term global cooling. They have to loft into the stratosphere to do so.
Pavel Chichikov writes:
Where I end up is not my decision.
Come on, Pavel, you can't tell me you're not lobbying hard for the big carrot in the sky.
"By the way, Pavel, I think you're a beautiful person. I have my own faith, yet I am awed by the grace in yours."
God bless you, Hoopajoops, LTD.
This can be a great place, but there's so much that's off-topic here.
Are you guys gonna buy no more of our produce ?
Is Sir Walter Raleigh in heaven with all the Indians the white men murdered? I wonder if he still has his soiled cape?
Yeah! Did his severed head roll through the grass! C'mon. Did any children die?
nova | Homepage | 01.12.09 - 8:10 pm | #
I presume this is the reference?
Morrow, along with two young children, My-Ca Dinh Le (aged 7) and Renee Shin-Yi Chen (aged 6), died on the set of Twilight Zone: The Movie (1982).
Why? They are a failed institution, the TARP has bailed out 220 banks that would have failed. They have $34 billion guaranteeing $11 Trillion in assets. Shut it down, it is a joke
Johnny Mustardseed | 01.12.09 - 8:48 pm | #
At the conclusion of the S&L/RTC/FDIC 80s crisis (which still has not concluded in terms of paying for it)the FDIC wrote several volumes to burnish its reputation, lay the blame on RTC, OTS, OCC and provide key lessons learned which it did not learn. It will do the same with this crisis and already has highly compensated research staff assigned and tracking the information in its library and offices nationwide.
Pavel,
"This can be a great place, but there's so much that's off-topic here."
There's a topic?!
Ah, crap!
It's not Brazilian Bikini models again, is it? I'm soooooo sick of that one...
Nostrovia,
This can be a great place, but there's so much that's off-topic here.
Pavel Chichikov | 01.12.09 - 8:54 pm | #
And do you not account for at least some of that? That's why I like your comments.
"Come on, Pavel, you can't tell me you're not lobbying hard for the big carrot in the sky."
St. Francis of Assisi Quotes
Morrow, along with two young children, My-Ca Dinh Le (aged 7) and Renee Shin-Yi Chen (aged 6), died on the set of Twilight Zone: The Movie (1982).
Blackhalo | 01.12.09 - 8:56 pm | #
Wow, if that's the case, that was as cryptic as it gets. Clever. Got me.
I took a vacation and went up and down I-5 in california to the no-name towns to look at each town's respective "foreclosure rows" of houses built in the last 5 years. I was idly wondering the other night how long it will take the handfull of homeowners on those blocks to protect the value of their homes by sneaking over one night to a few foreclosures and brightening up the night sky with a little bonfire. Once people figure out that "reducing excess inventory" is easy now that municipal fire and law budgets are slashed, I expect this to become a more common occurrence. At least in the central valley.
"This can be a great place, but there's so much that's off-topic here."
It is a real zoo after midnight. Stay and I'll post a recipe from my new cookbook - Cajun Cooking - Cooking Through the Seasons on Avery Island by Eula Mae Dore and Marcelle R. Bienvenu...
I think I'll end up in Hell with my other friends . maybe you know some of them Greenspan , hanky paulson , bush ,clinton , Barney Frank ,soon to be Obama ect
"Is Sir Walter Raleigh"
he was such a stupid get
Made fine tennis rackets and balls though.
I've had a warmer feeling about this blog than any I've ever read and commented on, and that includes religious sites.
FFDIC,
"It is a real zoo after midnight. Stay and I'll post a recipe from my new cookbook"
Ah, man. Post it now. I have to get up at 4 am to catch a 5:50 am flight tomorrow.
Nostrovia,
FFDIC,
One wonders where the $2 Trillion went? Banks or T-Bills?
http://www.brainyquote.com/ quote..._of_assisi.html
Pavel Chichikov | 01.12.09 - 8:58 pm | #
Geez, you're trying to kill me with love, Pavel.
"up and down I-5"
don't neglect the 15 down south and 80/50 up north
bgates, where is this? Where specifically are you thinking of, the el dorado hills? There are some amazing developments up there, way up these hills, way far away from any jobs or commerce, the only store nearby a luxury car store, probably no water to speak of... I bet they'll be wiped out by wildfires in the coming budgetary crunches. I'm thinking the 80/50 east of Sacto to the mountains.
"Is Sir Walter Raleigh in heaven with all the Indians the white men murdered? I wonder if he still has his soiled cape?"
I think he knew that, was aware of that. You gotta read those lines from his poem again.
"If God can work through me, he can work through anyone."
St. Francis of Assisi
"I'm thinking the 80/50 east of Sacto to the mountains."
yup, 80 ends in north lake, 50 in south lake.
but the 15 may well take the cake. corona, wildomar, etc - heartbreak city.
I took a vacation and went up and down I-5 in california to the no-name towns to look at each town's respective "foreclosure rows" of houses built in the last 5 years. I was idly wondering the other night how long it will take the handfull of homeowners on those blocks to protect the value of their homes by sneaking over one night to a few foreclosures and brightening up the night sky with a little bonfire. Once people figure out that "reducing excess inventory" is easy now that municipal fire and law budgets are slashed, I expect this to become a more common occurrence. At least in the central valley.
Hoopajoops, LTD | 01.12.09 - 9:00 pm | #
The neighbors might be looking at the burned out hulks for a half decade if they do - who is going to rebuild - not a recipe for neighborhood appreciation. Ask Detroit.
Then again it might be a 'strip club strategy' on the part of the banks owning the REO... strip clubs frequently insure themselves to the absolute limit with the hope somebody burns the place down out of a desire to drive them out.
My local Target has replaced their Christmas aisles with a couple of aisles of gardening stuff. But not just any gardening stuff: color-coordinated boots and rubber gloves in all the latest Martha Stewart hues, and darling little miniature galoshes and toy watering cans for the wee ones. So, don't worry - they're onto the paradigm shift.
(Of course, gardening season in this part of the country is a good 14 to 16 weeks off yet...)
Blackhalo | 01.12.09 - 8:56 pm
Hah! I wish I could be that clever. Vic Morrow was a heckva loss. Him, Littlejohn, Frenchie, the Lt., wow.
I had a community garden for the last 10 years. Yes, the planting season has changed in VA. They used to put up drift fences at school.
Up to about 100 years ago the Potomac river would freeze so solid that sleighs would make the run from Leesburg to DC on it.
Does this mean their new motto will be: Shane Co., now you have a friend in bankruptcy.
Yeah, FFDIC, I have to be up at 6:30am and the Sailor Jerry's rum guarantees I won't make it til midnight...
"out of a desire to drive them out"
good thing the mob is never mixed up in those businesses, there might be other motives
"It is a real zoo after midnight. Stay and I'll post a recipe from my new cookbook"
That would be great.
mal writes:
My local Target has replaced their Christmas aisles with a couple of aisles of gardening stuff. But not just any gardening stuff: color-coordinated boots and rubber gloves in all the latest Martha Stewart hues, and darling little miniature galoshes and toy watering cans for the wee ones. So, don't worry - they're onto the paradigm shift.
(Of course, gardening season in this part of the country is a good 14 to 16 weeks off yet...)
Not if you need to get the mustard seeds started