Every job lost is a tragedy. We should spare no expense and use all our power to prevent even a single job from being lost. We must save as many souls as possible.
Am I Second? writes:
Every job lost is a tragedy. We should spare no expense and use all our power to prevent even a single job from being lost.
Am I Second? | 01.13.09 - 12:31 am | #
yes... especially those jobs that don't even exist yet.
He has no experience, no track record. He has never been tested under real pressure.
The data is coming at him at a furious pace, and it is all bad. He leaps from issue to issue, desperate to come up with a solution. Where is the originality, the creativity, the CHANGE.
He's slowly running out of energy. Drowning. Right. In. Front. Of. Your. Eyes.
Rigid? Hell, it just shows they don't have a friggin' clue what to do, only that they want to "do something". It's politics by trial balloon again.
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) | 01.13.09 - 12:34 am
C'mon, CR, admit it; he's blowing in the wind.
Amateur Hour, coming to The White House in one week.
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) | 01.13.09 - 12:37 am
I'm not trying to incite the crowd (honestly), but... I'm going to go on record saying that after 4 years, there's a chance that Obama will be considered worse than Bush.
"Obama advisers said further adjustments may be made to the president-elect's tax priorities, including to a proposed $500 payroll tax credit for individuals. ..."
Rats! I was hoping to take my $500 payroll credit and immediately credit myself with some extra GLD. Sure, they'll keep the $1000 credit for the fancy pants couples, but nothing for us "sin"-dividuals ... and all because of my commitment phobia.
Grant you the "wired". However, this isn't even trial and error, because it isn't reaching the "try" stage, at least not in terms of economic change. The only "try" I see here is trying to get something past the Hill. If you want to make an impact you have to have an idea and the conviction to sell it; you don't just go throwing shit against the wall to see what'll stick.
God help obama because if he modifies a policy proposal or changes his mind it shows weakness and indecision
God help obama because if he maintains his original position despite input and argument from those on his left and on his right it shows he is rigid, self important and a tyrant
God help obama
because if he fails the country is going to get flushed down the crapper
Just checked the Heritage website - 'Our goal is to allow you to enjoy your wealth by reducing the burden of asset management' Uh oh. Are the wealthy really that stupid?
As the economy circles the bowl on its way down, at least we'll have a leader who speaks in complete and grammatically correct sentences.
To extend this metaphor, with sufficient angular momentum, I suppose that the economy can be kept circling indefinitely (quant easing). But it would make more sense to block the downward route w/ a heavy meal of burritos (bank holiday / nationalization).
With those parting thoughts, good night. You're welcome.
This is the only mistake I've seen Obama make so far, and while that's a good thing (only one clear mistake), I'd sad to see this interesting tax credit for job creation idea disappear.
It only needed working out details to solve all the possible problems, and could have been a real plus.
Authorities believe Schrenker was last seen Monday morning in Childersburg, Ala., just south of Birmingham, when a man using his Indiana driver's license told police that he'd been in a canoe accident. He was wet only from the knees down and had what appeared to be goggles made for flying.
(when it came to handing out the TARP money) "some analysts say the idea is to strengthen the banking industry by giving strong banks the means to take over weak ones.
It's not necessarily working out that way.
Some banks judged by federal regulators as "strong," like Merrill Lynch and Provident Bancshares, are the very ones getting bought out.
And some in Congress are upset that the Treasury Secretary is hand-picking winners and losers.
In a November 14 hearing, Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif., said: "Hank Paulson gets to decide who lives and who dies? Who buys whom?"
Take PNC Bank and National City. Both wanted bailout money but only PNC got it: Then, it bought National City.
Rep. Kucinich is from Cleveland, where National City was based. He grilled the Treasury official in charge of the bailout, Neel Kashkari, saying in the Nov. 14 hearing: "You picked a winner, PNC, and you picked a loser, National City Bank."
Kashkari responded: "With deep respect, it is not appropriate for me to speak about an individual institution, but I can talk generally about "
"Well, with deep respect, you know, you put 4,000 people out of work in the city of Cleveland," Kucinich said. "You're, you know are you taking a Fifth Amendment here?"
see
this is what decisiveness cn get you
bush and hank and their progeny will receive the THANKS of the winners that hank PICKED
That Obama will try a stimulus package is a given. This is what all the "mainstream" economists suggest and he would be crucified if he didn't do something along these lines. What he does in response to the stimulus package falling flat on its face is what will determine the fate of his presidency, and the fate of this country for quite a while.
He is caught between a rock and a hard place, and I'm convinced there's little he can do to stem the inevitable. However, I'd like to see something solid with some conviction behind it, even if I don't entirely agree with it. If he doesn't believe in something he's just an empty suit that gives good speeches (like Clinton), and I'd like to believe he's more than that. I voted for him hoping for that.
The idea that nothing will "fix" the economy actually gives him opportunities few presidents ever have. If there were a path with any potential it would be a straitjacket; they wouldn't let him do anything else. However, given that there is no clear path he can blaze a new one without fear... the consequences can't be much worse than those already baked in -or- those to be found in failed Keynesian pipe dreams.
BBC take on the same story... wow. dryfly | 01.13.09 - 1:08 am | #
The BBC article still talks about 7.5% growth. Here they are talking about potentially 5%. Based on the drops of South Korea exports to China from yesterday, I wouldn't be surprised to see even less than that. I will get interesting.
... But independent analysts have predicted growth could slow to as little as 5 percent as factory output growth grinds to a halt and exports shrink in the face of falling global demand. ...
It's hard to analyze a plan without many details, but this seems like progress.
Based on the estimates given by the ARRP, business tax credits was responsible for the "creation" (even though it appears that this particular credit would have been given for saving jobs) of about 400K jobs. It can't be the whole 400K jobs, can it?
dryfly writes: \tMr President Elect... Would you care for some fries with that? dryfly | 01.13.09 - 1:13 am | # ----- I think I can understand the "give 'em a break" attitude, but the man did sign up for the gig, spent 100+ million USDs to earn the gig, and is now being exposed by the gig. What kind of rhetorical break are we suppose to give the man? He is asking for TARP money which has been one of the biggest jokes and lamentations on this blog--and elsewhere.
We get a proposed 3.5 million job idea which is bumped up to 4.1 million within hours. We had his chief economist come out with ideas and plans that run 150-180 degrees from her academic research. Mix in the fact that Congressional Democrats are already causing a fuss for him and Democratic leadership, and where does the exactly leave us with this President-To-Be?
I agree with ille_vir that it isn't so much the "Just do something!" sentiment that is drawing howls and jeers. It is the response to the failure that is causing people to heckle the Man o' Change. Playing to the crowd is a dangerous gambit, and many men have been devoured by a crowd who were lead in optimism to their doom.
lle_vir writes:
That Obama will try a stimulus package is a given. This is what all the "mainstream" economists suggest and he would be crucified if he didn't do something along these lines. What he does in response to the stimulus package falling flat on its face is what will determine the fate of his presidency, and the fate of this country for quite a while.
Well put. I am in this camp also. He's between a rock and a hard place. Three years from now, the rock will will be bigger and the place harder.
With all of the countries China is exporting to sporting a drop in GDP, why would China grow at all? Where do they get this talk of positive growth? The -8.6% energy consumption yoy in Nov. should be telling us something, no? Does a growing economy ever consume less energy?
Let me also point out the obvious that he's not president yet.
And we can all argue all night whether what he's been talking about will make things better or worse, but let's face it, what does anybody know? We're in uncharted waters here.
I think we should all pray (or at least Pavel should that Obama suceeds. I don't mind making money off of puts, but I'm not looking forward to eating freeze-dried food for a year. Knowing that I was "right" won't make me enjoy it.
Honestly, it seems like the predictions of slower, but still positive growth in China for this year coming out of big institutions are out of a politeness/courtesy thing to the Chinese government. They're using less energy! They're shrinking! Or else they're suddenly getting more efficient in terms of energy use. (I guess that's possible, considering how high enery costs were earlier in the year, but still unlikely)
Its not that he changes his mind. It is supposed to be a well thought out program. But if Reps. want xyz then in they go. But Nancy doesn't like it out it goes. Its like watching Groucho and Chico negotiating a contract.
Part of my frustration stems from the way DC does business.
I mean, hell, if you believe something's worth doing it should be in your plan and you should fight to keep it there. OTOH, if it's not worth doing it shouldn't be there in the first place.
Unfortunately, DC plays a game where you always ask for more than you want and then give away things (that you may or may not care about) while hoping to salvage some part of what you do want. So far it appears he's willing to play the game instead of changing it.
anonymous writes: \tYou're only off by half a billion... anonymous | 01.13.09 - 1:26 am | # ----- Fine, let me tighten up my amount. While all of his expenses have not been calculated--I think?--his campaign raised ~650 million USD by November, 2008. Even if it is a shit sandwiche with a toxic sludge shake, I don't think you should get too much of an "Aww, poor thing..." when you spend so much time and energy to raise and spend that much money.
Either way, We Americans are in "Where Obama Goes, So Go I' mode. For better or worse.
I'll be relieved if they omit the provision that would allow reckless companies to recoup taxes (going back up to 5 years instead of 2) paid on profits made doing stupid things. Yeah, let's reward homebuilders and banks for taking stupid risks back then. We'll just cushion them from heir inevitable losses.
By keeping that provision out of any stimulus plan, the government can keep me from becoming a tax evader.
ille_vir writes: \tHonestly, it seems like the predictions of slower, but still positive growth in China for this year coming out of big institutions are out of a politeness/courtesy thing to the Chinese government. They're using less energy! They're shrinking! ille_vir | 01.13.09 - 1:30 am | # ----- Did you not get the memo that the US economy will recover 2nd Half of '09? Worse case, 1st Half of '10.
I do agree with you that the energy use is a telling sign of their receeding economy, and if the reports play out, the long Chinese New Year will continue that trend. We may see 1Q09's energy usage drop by another 8-10% if not more. They definitely aren't importing anything for their export sector, and they aren't consuming larger and larger amounts of their own production. Honestly, if bsetser's last blog concerning Taiwan's & Korea's recent declines, I cannot imagine how China keeps their boat afloat.
It is definitely not the Year of the (American) Pig for them...
obama suggested some of the tax incentives to bring republicans on board
the republicans have rebuffed him
so the offerrings are questioned
from the article CR quoted
"Obama suggested the $3,000-per-job credit last week as one of five individual and business tax incentives aimed at winning Republican support.
snip
Republicans reacted favorably to the higher-than-expected ratio of tax breaks to spending... But they offered mixed reviews of his specific tax proposals and floated their own, including cuts in corporate and capital gains taxes."
This is an article I originally read on http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/. It follows the journey of a laid-off Chinese factory worker from Guangdong back to her home in Hunan. Long journey. What struck me is that she's only 17 years old, looks even younger than that, and has no idea, in my opinion, how bad things are going to get in her country. Worth the read.
max flatow writes:
but let's face it, what does anybody know? We're in uncharted waters here.
Reading Marketwatch.com over the weekend i saw that 48% percent of economists polled thought that the USD was in for a beating over the next 6 months, and the balance disagreed and predicted the USD would strengthen. It doesn't bother me a wit that there is this gulf, but its worth noting that a group of people whose profession it is to understand the economy are half right.
I have my own future picture that i reasoned out in simple terms. I see the last 6 years of economy as a fraud - a fake. Chinese production based on trillions of dollars loaned into an artificially constructed consumer economy, one where westerner's spent like drunken sailors. Now, not only do we have to pay it back, but the Governments involved have turned the public purse spigots wide open making every effort to perpetuate the same type of spending that created the disaster. My conclusion is, more spending based on debt can only exacerbate the problem and lead to an even worse economic sinkhole. But this is just common sense, and i am probably completely wrong.
I actually liked the ideas of flat tax crank on cnbc, but with a big twist - instead of a stupid and regressive 17% flat tax which will never happen, why not just hack 15% off of everyone's marginal rate? that's probably about seven or eight hundred billion, and almost everyone would appreciate it.
First of all, worldwide almost all investors and employers have become very risk adverse. This plan of Obama's does not recognize this fact at all. It assumes that just by dumping nearly a trillion dollars down the toilet that the market psychology will change. There is nothing in this plan that would encourage investors or employers to be less risk adverse. The only thing is the whole plan that conceivably helped business was his vague "Business Tax Credit", was has been quickly dumped.
Second, it reads like a huge trillion dollar give a way to the who's who of Democrat interest groups. It even notes that the Afro-Americans, Hispanics and women will be helped most by this plan.
Third, by it's own admission, this plan is not a plan at all but only a "framework". Obama just voted present again. He is not trying. He is not changing the nature of government, he is reinforcing the worst aspects of it. He is going to let Nancy and Harry do the heavy lifting here, which means in the end this plan will be even more of a socialist give a way, loaded up with useless pork for their favorite victim groups than it already is.
Why should we give the Democrats and Obama a chance? They are the ones who created the Community Redevelopment Act, helped ACORN extort billions from Banks, leaned on banks and Wall Street to be give un-collateralized loans to the downtrodden, and along the way made Fannie and Freddie an unsupervised Ponzi like welfare scheme that has driven the entire world economy into a deep and dangerous ditch.
If you want to make an impact you have to have an idea and the conviction to sell it; you don't just go throwing shit against the wall to see what'll stick.
This is called "negotiation" and the country would be much better off if the very-soon-to-be-ex president did it occasionally. Not only is there nothing wrong with it, it's the main route for how the public's opinion feeds into decisions. Obama can only poll-watch but congresscritters get down with their constituents every week. Granted, they don't always listen; but if the President doesn't listen to them he not listening to us and that's very bad.
Plus in the current unsettled situation, with essentially all academics admitting they didn't see it coming, humility is called for. Certainty now is schizophrenic.
anyone know what's wrong with Yves lately? She's just posted about 10 replies to a bunch of fools over a story that looks like she's a pumping maniac. Are there any blogs left worth a crap?
Ilargi: $45 billion. That's the amount of money, your money if you're American, that Citigroup received from Henry Paulson's TARP funds a few months ago. The funds that Congress overwhelmingly agreed he could spend, no questions asked, and with 100% legal immunity. Even when, mere hours after your democratically elected officials voted YES!, YES!, please!, all-knowing hammer!, so we won't have anarchy, and so we can keep our bloated rear ends in our velvet seats, Paulson simply stated he was going to do something totally different with the $350 billion first installment.
$45 billion went to Citi. Today, Citi sells its brokerage unit, Smith Barney, which delivered a $7.9 billion profit last calendar year, 16.3% of Citis profits, to Morgan Stanley. For $2.5 billion. And I've read a lot about this today, with some smart punditry among it, but nobody I've seen has asked: HEY!, what happened to my $45 billion? We can safely assume that Smith Barney was one of Citis best performing units, if only because there are no buyers for the lesser ones. And yes, sure, there is more creative accounting, but of course there is. Citi gets to write the deal up for over $10 billion.
Why should we give the Democrats and Obama a chance? They are the ones who created the Community Redevelopment Act, helped ACORN extort billions from Banks, leaned on banks and Wall Street to be give un-collateralized loans to the downtrodden, and along the way made Fannie and Freddie an unsupervised Ponzi like welfare scheme that has driven the entire world economy into a deep and dangerous ditch.
Sigh. You need a little basic eduation. CRA, ACORN, and Fannie/Freddie were bit players at best in causing the disaster. CRA loans and Fannie/Freddie loans both did better than private loans, so insofar as they affected things, they helped.
I see the last 6 years of economy as a fraud - a fake. Kondratieff canuk | 01.13.09 - 1:48 am | #
Only the last 6? I'd count almost the entire Greenspan era, and then go on to point out that the era of the boomer / globalization / reserve currency / cheap energy was a unique historical anomaly that won't be repeated for a while.
Anonymous(Unrated) writes: anyone know what's wrong with Yves lately? She's just posted about 10 replies to a bunch of fools over a story that looks like she's a pumping maniac. Are there any blogs left worth a crap?
Hm. It seems to me all she's saying is that there will be ups and downs on a general slope downwards. Isn't that a given?
When they say they are worried about "reward[ing] behavior that was possibly irresponsible..." does that include the politicians who doled out $350B to insolvent banks without any strings attached?
the idea is to make him into jimmy carter such that a new reagan can arise from the ashes and lead the GOP to new glories. part one could happen and might even be likely, but part two is about as likely as me starting as a defensive end in the nfl next year.
This is called "negotiation" Fair Economist | Homepage | 01.13.09 - 1:53 am | #
I'd prefer to see a little something called "leadership".
Instead of bargaining with those on the Hill why can't he use those great oratorical skills and appeal directly to the people, ala Kennedy or Reagan? You convince enough voters then their legislators have no choice but to come on board.
The problem with all these incentives and tax credits is that they are very diluted by the time they work their way down to a business decision maker at a company. I'm speaking from personal experience. It doesn't take much economic dislocation to swamp an incentive by an order of magnitude or two. Yet ironically the credits and incentives are very expensive in the aggregate. The other problem is that political pressure tends to narrow the credits and incentives so they aren't generally applicable. Mostly this kind of thing shows up when your CFO or CPA tells you that you benefited from it after the fact. That's always a good feeling, but it's not like someone's going to decide to open up a $50K/year job because there's a $3K tax credit hanging around. (Sure, you can claim it will affect borderline cases, but the actual cost for such job generation is going to be 10x to 50x the credit cost since most will be unintentional awards.)
Improved tax treatment of business expenses has a much larger effect on business decision makers because they affect repeated smaller decisions. The R&D tax credit was very successful for stimulating high tech for many years, though its eventual (politically-based) unreliability reduced the effectiveness. You can't make decisions based on tax law when nobody knows what the law will be by the time you file.
The best way to generate jobs is to promote new/growing small businesses. They hire few people per business, but vast numbers in the aggregate. Also small business tends to be very fiscally aware so small dollar amounts can have large effects. They are also more flexible and responsive. By the time a company has 500 employees they're not going to change much just because you throw a quarter million at them. Sure, they'll be grateful but we want change, not gratitude. If instead you offer $2500 each to 100 companies averaging 5 employees they are at least going to think about how to qualify for the incentive. (Speaking generally; you can scale the numbers by industry/region.)
true, but I wonder if that charisma is more of a liability than anything else. could this supply-side orgy which ended in such disaster have taken root without the gipper's smooth confidence? could our slippery slope towards funny money and not-so-funny empire have occurred without the "idealism" and romance of camelot? i wonder.
Was Reagan really that charismatic? I was just a kid, but he never really seemed inspiring to me, and his wife just plain scared the heck out of me. What was his draw?
"Third, by it's own admission, this plan is not a plan at all but only a "framework". Obama just voted present again. He is not trying. He is not changing the nature of government, he is reinforcing the worst aspects of it. He is going to let Nancy and Harry do the heavy lifting"
---just voted present again???
what the hell are you talking about
who just voted present again???
"Democrats and Obama.. are the ones who created the Community Redevelopment Act" you said
huh...are you joking?
CRA has been around for nearly 40 years...and we have a blow up after 8 years of the bush ownership society and hands off regulation
Paul, for the love of pete get a clue
read how bush and greespan pushed these new exotic loans for cryin out loud
The more charismatic the politician, the more damaging the results. Charisma | 01.13.09 - 2:15 am | #
LOL! Unfortunately, there's a LOT of truth in that.
You know, any time I've heard someone try and make a case for gun control I've always suggested they try replacing "gun" with "word" (i.e., "word control"), since the greatest killers in history (Mao, Stalin, Hitler, etc.) used words as weapons. Of course, those pressing gun control don't often get the point.
Only the last 6? I'd count almost the entire Greenspan era, and then go on to point out that the era of the boomer / globalization / reserve currency / cheap energy was a unique historical anomaly that won't be repeated for a while.
Since Reaganomics i guess you mean. I'm not knowledgeable enough with all the aspects to have an informed opinion covering the last 28 years in one fell swoop. I do understand that Capitalism and monetary policy need to co-exist and that inflation is part of maintaining a fractional reserve banking system, HOWEVER the last 6 years are obviously a departure from economic fundamentals. An economy driven by financing consumerism can only last for so long and we exhausted the model. It could not continue. A recession is self correcting. This melt down is not self correcting unless all the bankruptcy and job loss is allowed to occur. We have to go though this. Perhaps it is an Ayn Rand cycle indeed. It may be long and deep but eventually it will end and capitalism will turn growth positive again. It could be 10 years, like the '29 crash. I feel it will be at least 5 years, but its just a gut feeling.
yes, he was. he was a real pro, in the literal sense, and his shilling for GE back in the 50s polished his shtick to a bright sheen. central casting could not have come up with a better figure for the frazzled, second-guessing, downbeat late 70s. those 'morning in america' commercials were real classics, and his 'there you go again' sting on carter was devastating on every level.
he was also a low-IQ tool of the mob via MCA and an utter disaster for our social and economic integrity in the long run. but the man was a hell of a talking head!
Anonymous(Unrated) writes:
anyone know what's wrong with Yves lately? She's just posted about 10 replies to a bunch of fools over a story that looks like she's a pumping maniac. Are there any blogs left worth a crap?
Hm. It seems to me all she's saying is that there will be ups and downs on a general slope downwards. Isn't that a given?
ille_vir
~~~~~
Never did get her answer about a Bank Holiday ... but then all economists are dodging that one ...
and, in any case, fiat currency is a political entity, not an economic one. so what is economic that isn't political? i'd love a discussion on the oil/gold ratio if you want to go there, but that's about it.
The "bipartisan spirit" under which Obama hopes to govern will shortly be revealed to be marsh gas.
It made sense only for campaigning. Obama needs precious little support from Republicans to pass legislation, and they are in too much disarray to act as a monolithic bloc. So he'll have no trouble peeling off a few votes if he needs them.
But he DOES need the support of the grass roots Democrats who believed his mantra of CHANGE.
They are the ones he'd better pay attention to. They want the change he promised, and they want it now. They want the entire Bush junta in chains. They want its tentacles of corruption ripped loose from the institutions of government.
And they sure as hell don't want to hear soothing appeals to not "play the blame game."
(it aint cra... it was low interest rates, new kinds of mortgages and bush's ownership society nonsense w/o regulation
what i asked you to read...
from NYT article
"Eight years after arriving in Washington vowing to spread the dream of homeownership, Mr. Bush is leaving office, as he himself said recently, faced with the prospect of a global meltdown with roots in the housing sector he so ardently championed.
There are plenty of culprits, like lenders who peddled easy credit, consumers who took on mortgages they could not afford and Wall Street chieftains who loaded up on mortgage-backed securities without regard to the risk.
But the story of how we got here is partly one of Mr. Bushs own making, according to a review of his tenure that included interviews with dozens of current and former administration officials.
From his earliest days in office, Mr. Bush paired his belief that Americans do best when they own their own home with his conviction that markets do best when let alone.
He pushed hard to expand homeownership, especially among minorities, an initiative that dovetailed with his ambition to expand the Republican tent and with the business interests of some of his biggest donors. But his housing policies and hands-off approach to regulation encouraged lax lending standards."
For the "meh, who cares" crowd, this is the second largest economy in the world. Still. Counterpointer | 01.13.09 - 1:51 am | #
C,
The fact that its current account surplus dived 66% in November is also VERY disconcerting. The world economy is in serious trouble and an unhealthy Japan and China will not be good for the U.S. either. See my platform company comment earlier today.
bgates writes:
this thread is explicitly political.
Agreed. Now that the Gov is charged with 'saving' the economy, how can you talk about one, and not the other? You cannot.
I don't think you can draw a correlation between gold and oil. Gold is the money system of last resort. It only becomes important when confidence in the world currency base becomes an issue. Oil correlates to industrial demand. Demand for oil could stay flat is the absence of a currency crisis. Correct?
Sigh. You need a little basic eduation. CRA, ACORN, and Fannie/Freddie were bit players at best in causing the disaster. Fair Economist | Homepage | 01.13.09 - 1:56 am | #
Facts are beyond the ideology crowd. They can only nod their ditto heads...
Charisma writes:
The more charismatic the politician,
the more damaging the results.
Truman and Lincoln are my two favorite politicians. The quiet guys who got the job done and do it for the fact they agreed to do the job to the best of their abilities.
Examine the people who you work with and how their work habits tie into their outward personalities. Maybe you'll be surprised at who you would keep in deciding who you'll layoff.
I always keep the quite, earnest and hard working. If you're in charge of a sales group disregard. Keep the load and outgoing.
What happened to the logic of appointing the people who do not seek power? The competent and credible... Service as a civic duty...
Not all of America has drank the kool aid of form over substance. Where is the innate goodness that makes up the bedrock of our national identity?
Bring on the hard times. A redefining of who we are is necessary.
Oil is a resource that will deplete over time. Gold is not. The utility of oil is realized by burning it. Gold, by keeping it around. Why would there be a set ratio between the two? My wife was convinced of this too, and I had a long talk with her over this.
Couterpointer, see this from Caijing Daily (English version, with link to Chinese version)? Check out some of the other 1/13 stories on this link, including Goldman reducing a stake in a gold miner, and and Disney to build a theme park in Shanghai. Mickey Rat?
China Becomes Member of IDB » China joins the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) group, the most important regional development institution in Latin America. » Two China Central Bank governors, Zhou Xiaochuan and Hu Xiaolian, will become take on representatives in the IDB. » China's membership will help boost China-Latin American cooperation. Full article in Chinese: http://www.caijing.com.cn/2009-01-13/110047340.html
Subsidize that which you want more of, and tax that which you want less of. \t Obvious | \t \t \t \t01.13.09 - 1:49 am | #
Unfortunately, even many smart people here confuse democracy with capitalism. I made huge capital gains this year. It would be ridiculous to tax them at a lower rate than any other earnings.
I am a card carrying member of the grassroots you describe. There must be legal consequences to the actions that have led us here.
Teaching our children how to define right and wrong against a back drop of the last 10 years is impossible. If you want to feel profound sadness talk to a group of 12-16 year olds. Intelligent and resourceful enough to understand the issues but hopeless in how they feel about the future. For the children's sake alone I hope this train wreck can be cleaned up and the pieces cobbled into something else entirely. Something better.
Auto sales in China were reported to be up 6.something% over 2007 for all of 2008. One year before YoY was up 20%. This should be one of the more reliable Chinese statistics.
If you assume exporters noticed trouble last spring/summer, at which point there was a step change:
- 1/4 of 20% growth
- 3/4 of 0% growth
= close enough to 6%
Nothing special about this, just thought I would share that perspective. On the larger topic of Asian exports, I would comment that this is all according to plan (my personal expectations)
I'm just waiting for the open financial war in currency markets. pussyfooting bothers me
"What really amazes me is that people still have children in this age."
What generation hasn't said just that?
And we also have to recognize that the pain ahead, however extreme, might just yield something really and truly good. Societies don't up and change: they get shown the meat-grinder first, and either change or are fed into it.
ille_vir(Unrated) writes: \tWhat really amazes me is that people still have children in this age. \t ille_vir | \t \t \t \t01.13.09 - 2:54 am | # My sons turn 8 and 10 in the next few weeks. Last night, their grandmother was visiting and brushing hair. She grew up in Shanghai and Honk Kong between 1936 and 1948, and spoke of the whine of Japanese airplane engines as they delivered their nightly cargo. How she still can remember that sound. Her mother, my grandmother, would have the two girls brush her hair to calm them. She was one of the few white women in HK not incarcerated after 1941 as the occupying army attempted to sway her father in law, an iron foundry owner, into making munitions for them. He never caved.
My point is, children are a blessing. The future is bleak - but when you learn stories of making do, and humor, and what truly is of value - relationships, and courage, and integrity - perhaps you will one day find the desire to share them with your own offspring.
mp,
Personal motivations are not what concerns most people here. They care about results.
To put it another way, if Obama really really really wants good things to happen for America but things go down the crapper then he will not be popular.
If there is a reassessment of Reagan going on, I think it is because a lot of modern social malaise has been linked back to his administration. The deregulation or socialization of costs, the burgeoning government spending, a toying with religion and politics reminiscent of expensive lessons learned with WWII that gave rise the idea of a secular government.
Philosophers and english majors have latched on to the distaste for Wal-Mart, outsourcing, unequal access to justice according to wealth, and unconscionable executive pay. What was in Reagan's heart doesn't matter, because people do not like those problems and over time society can source back the symptoms to the cause. Those problems are present and inherently more personal
How many of you people have him on ignore? I've had to browse CR from work without CR Companion filtering and I forgot how prolific, trollish, and utterly worthless his posting is. I don't trash other posters much, in fact, I've never come out and singled someone out, but his posts are just a remarkable combination of both inflammatory nonsense and just utter empty noise.
JFK also printed more US Notes, a currency which replaces federal reserve notes because they're printed by the treasury itself.
Why we need this federal reserve intermediary to create inflation by channeling freshly printed dollars into the pockets of its cronies is anyone's guess. This "essential inflation" for the economy should be generated by the treasury, and the money should be more efficiently introduced at the stage where it will make the most inflationary impact for the least amount of printing: the pockets of the poor. Why give it to the rich to hoarde?
It's cool that people find some value in investing in the future by having kids. My wife and I were having a conversation about this the other day though. In the large-family household model, with the heir taking over the household, there was a definite incentive to having more kids. They were not only a source of labor for the household, a productive child guaranteed security in old age for the previous generation. In a nuclear family model though, there is no incentive to having kids, aside from a quasi-religious "having kids is cool" kind of spiritual justification. All they do is drain the resources of two already strapped parents, and make it harder for them to be physically mobile. It seems to me the drive to have children is borne more out of a sense of self-preservation rather than a "children are a blessing" kind of thinking, and that is why birth rates have fallen dramatically in mature societies.
My wife and I felt that having children would not only not be in our own self-interest, we would not be bringing them into a future in which we had confidence.
I've mentioned it before, but I have morocco bama on ignore. Not just because of the name, but after a few comments, it just wasn't worth reading.
after a few comments, it just wasn't worth reading.
Yeah, I generally love reading people I disagree with, but it is such a wearying chore to go through for him, like it's painful to read, and I only realize it after I'm half way through a post and it's just so inane that I have mistakenly read half a MB post. I can really take a lot when it comes to internet posts, but it's just unpleasant and unrewarding. I really can't deal with it when he's posting so prolifically if I don't have some sort of ignore script active. He just won't shut up and he has nothing to say, and he's sitting around posting all day so he inevitably picks fights 10% of the time and pisses off good posters. Ugh. UGH.
w/r/t having children -- If I were rich and could devote the time to raising a child in the manner a human being deserves to be raised, I would do it. I do not see myself being able to support a family financially and devote the resources to raising a child in any suitable manner. Thus I cannot afford to raise a child in this economy. And I'm a high earner.
Paul, why aren't the banks lending anymore? Who repealed the community re-investment act? Aren't the banks in violation of the law if they aren't loaning to everyone that walks in the door?
Hoopajoops, LTD(Good) writes: \tNow that Morocco Bama is asleep, I'll ask this.
How many of you people have him on ignore? Hoopajoops, LTD | Homepage | 01.13.09 - 3:12 am | #
Hoop, I only have 3 people ignored and he's one. If I'm ever feeling charitable I can click the "dim filtered comments" button and scan the noise with reduced annoyance.
My driving philosophy in life is to have the least impact on this world as much as possible. Having a child seems to me to be the most impact one can have. Although it would be cool to have an adoring little one that I could watch grow up, I'm just not into it. I don't care whether my genes are passed on or not, there is enough variety in the world already. I hope that those of you who do have children can teach them to be good stewards of the world we live in, and that they will have positive impacts on their environment. Hope that sounded hippy enough lol.
Sounds like a reasonable world view. Ever hear of the Jain sect in India (yes, you know the name.) Not so well known, Gandhi was born and raised in a Jain -predominant area, and their philosophy heavily influenced his non-violent practices. Essentially all life is so precious the monks swept the ground in front of their feet, to prevent stepping on any unsuspecting critters.
I'm thinking they didn't go in for much squirrel hunting.
w/r/t having children Hoopajoops, LTD | Homepage | 01.13.09 - 3:22 am | #
No one has children for any sensible reason, just as there's no particular reason to go on living, but we do it anyway. It's absurd (from Camus, The Myth of Sisyphus). I think I could have lived my life quite happily without a child, but on the other hand, I can live quite happily after having a child,...but with a lot more grey hairs. As bad as things might get here, I'm sure the children will still be better off than eigthy or ninety percent of the world., even without a "perfect" childhood.
I'm not trying to incite the crowd (honestly), but... I'm going to go on record saying that after 4 years, there's a chance that Obama will be considered worse than Bush.
Smartass | 01.13.09 - 12:47 am | #
Look smart ass ... he's done more before he's taken power than George the lesser did in 8 years.
It's not going to be pretty, but at worst Obama will be mediocre, not a complete failure.
Really amazing how lightly even Obama administration is proposing new tax cuts when the federal budget is already shot to hell.
So many countries/states/municipalities are going to offer bonds to finance their deficits this year that supply will be outstrip the demand badly. Financial Times estimated that $3000 billion worth of new bonds will be issued this year. Add to that rollover debt, in the US alone it is whopping $6000 BILLION! Short-term rollover financing has been the name of the game especially in the muni bonds.
World probably would absorb gigantic US deficits alone but not all western and even developing countries offering bonds at the same time. During this Q1 especially EU countries are rapid firing new bonds to the markets, probably exhausting the demand before US will even start issuing bonds for the stimulus. Talking about economic preemptive strike...
Even if all investors buy bonds what will happen to other markets? Those will collapse and take the economies with it. There just isn't enough money for both in the world right now.
Though not exactly on topic, Spain and California do share a number of interesting parallels, both housing bubbles and geographic. Not to mention the need for economic stimulus, at least in the sense of responding to the massive problems caused by collapsing housing prices and construction activity.
And what has been part of Spain's response to its economic problems? High speed rail.
Yes, yes, I know - the Spanish are being unfathomably stupid, at least if some of the profoundly insightful experts here are to be believed.
And look at the already concrete results of this decision -
'Spain's sleek new high-speed trains have stolen hundreds of thousands of passengers from airlines over the last year, slashing carbon emissions and marking a radical change in the way Spaniards travel.
Passenger numbers on fuel-guzzling domestic flights fell 20% in the year to November as commuters and tourists swapped cramped airline seats for the space and convenience of the train, according to figures released yesterday.
High-speed rail travel - boosted by the opening of a line that slashed the journey time from Madrid to Barcelona to 2 hours 35 minutes in February - grew 28% over the same period. About 400,000 travellers shunned airports and opted for the 220mph AVE trains.'
Amazing - and obviously just another reason to question whether the Spanish, along with such other societies as Japan, Germany, and France, understand how stupid passenger rail is. Especially the high speed variety.
Of course, Spain has all of those unique advantages of European geography -
'In a country where big cities are often more than 500km (300 miles) apart, air travel has ruled supreme for more than 10 years. A year ago aircraft carried 72% of the 4.8 million long-distance passengers who travelled by air or rail. The figure is now down to 60%.
"The numbers will be equal within two years," said Josep Valls, a professor at the ESADE business school in Barcelona.
Two routes, from Barcelona to Malaga and Seville, opened last week. Lines are also being built to link Madrid with Valencia, Alicante, the Basque country and Galicia. The government has promised to lay 10,000km of high-speed track by 2020 to ensure that 90% of Spaniards live within 30 miles of a station. The prime minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, boasts it will be Europe's most extensive high-speed network.'
Obviously, 300 miles apart doesn't describe America geography at all - at least for those who are convinced beyond even the glimmer of doubt that passenger rail, much less the high speed variety, can ever function anywhere in North America.
And unlike air travel, the Spanish train systems offers such disadvantages as these -
'High-speed rail tickets are often cheaper. The lowest one-way price on the 410-mile Barcelona-Madrid route this month is 44 (£40). Rail operator Renfe says 99% of trains on the route arrive on time.
That sort of efficiency was sorely missed at Madrid's Barajas airport at the weekend. Tens of thousands of passengers suffered delays of up to 30 hours because of snow, a work-to-rule by Iberia pilots and a lack of air traffic controllers.'
Luckily for Americans, in part due to the tireless efforts of many, including treatise writing exponents of exurban paradise, the odds of America having such a dysfunctional and inefficient system as the Spanish are so low as to be laughable.
Besides, who wants to actually live within a few miles (particularly by exurban standards) of a station that will likely deliver you to a city faster and cheaper than an aircraft, much less than by car. Worse, many of those Spanish cities actually have trams, buses, and all the other horribly flawed concepts (walkable neighborhoods, anyone?) which fail so miserably in the U.S., thus proving beyond any intelligent doubt how flawed such concepts truly are.
Obviously, the world has no concept of how much better they could live if they just followed the revealed preferences of Americans. The Spanish seem especially ignorant of how to do things the American way, as they are likely to also keep idiotically investing in various solar/wind projects, which would power their electrified trains. Meaning that the Spanish could actually travel in their own country, using their own trains, powered by their own generated electricity, instead of paying for the privilege of filling their tanks to such friendly people as Chavez (who the Spanish king told to shut up), Putin, and the madcap mullahs of Iran, not to mention the House of Saud, whose dedication to religious education world wide is beyond dispute. Pity that their idea of religious education also includes the AK-47, RPG-7, and car bombs.
Much like the idea of being forced to use universal health care, Americans can remain quite secure that they will not also be forced into using high speed rail to get from city to city. And they can also comfort themselves that high speed passenger rail doesn't work, has never worked, and will never work, just because.
Then they can start waving their hands fast enough to achieve escape velocity from the bonds of the mundane world around us.
The difference between Spain and California is that Spain is independent nation. California is dependent on Washington, DC.
Imagine if almost all the political power in EU were given to the Brussels. That would be roughly equal what USA today is.
EU would be dysfunctional corrupted society overnight with lobby armies just waiting to get their dirty hands to the common money cookie jar. Imperial military army and EUROLAND security police would be created to protect the "vital interests" and against domestic "terrorists", public healthcare and education systems would be abolished and so on.
Before USA as society can even begun somekind of healing process, it must be divided into smaller more governable entities in which local people decide what is best for themselves, not the rich elite, lobby armies and special interests groups.
But another Obama proposal, to allow companies to deduct larger portions of recent losses, has raised eyebrows on the Hill, where lawmakers see it as a costly reward for behavior that was possibly irresponsible.
So, lemme see if I get this straight. We gotta, gotsta save the banksters but you people can go screw yourselves. Yep. Par for the friggin course.
cr writes:
It's hard to analyze a plan without many details, but this seems like progress. The larger deductions for tax losses can be junked too, although the capital investment tax incentive is probably worthwhile since capital investment is falling off a cliff.
You're being disingenuous and duplicitous in your reasoning. The only person you convince here is yourself and any other self deluded tyro.
Even if all investors buy bonds what will happen to other markets? Those will collapse and take the economies with it. There just isn't enough money for both in the world right now.
supafly73 | 01.13.09 - 4:39 am | #
Sorry to break in on the erudite recourse concerning Spain and California, but I feel it necessary to point out that there isn't any money in the world. It's all a paper con game and for anyone to read with understanding any attempt to posit otherwise is doing a disservice to the situation. So there.
Hoopajoops, LTD writes:
JFK also printed more US Notes, a currency which replaces federal reserve notes because they're printed by the treasury itself.
Do the time lines of his presidency up to and including Dallas. Some light might come on when you juxtapose the issuance of U S Notes and subsequent events. All the other horseshit is just noise.
Before USA as society can even begun somekind of healing process, it must be divided into smaller more governable entities in which local people decide what is best for themselves, not the rich elite, lobby armies and special interests groups.
supafly73 | 01.13.09 - 5:18 am | #
This is an appropriately facile a response to your post. Also, read some Virginia (regarding Kentucky), Texas and California history. There are others, but these might 'help' you with a more robust understanding of America.
'After the Wheeling Conventions, West Virginia broke away from Virginia during the American Civil War and was admitted to the Union as a separate state on June 20, 1863, and was a key Civil War "border state." It is one of only two states formed during the American Civil War (along with Nevada, which separated from Utah Territory) and is the only state to form by seceding from a Confederate state and one of three states to secede from another state (the others being Kentucky and Maine).' West Virginia - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
That's right - a state formed by seceding from a seceding state. I don't think that the Constitution was ever envisioned to cover such situations, but flexibility when facing political disintegration is often a virtue. And ponder this - was West Virginia correctly admitted?
People should get used to a lot more of these arrangements in the future.
The last time such massive shuffling occurred was during Roosevelt's four terms - the four terms themselves being a breaking of American political convention, leading to the constitutional result that Ronald Reagan could not be re-elected to a 3rd term. Sometimes, I too praise the far sighted wisdom of the Republican Party.
In the case of Kentucky, Kentucky was a county of Virginia and is one of only three commonwealth systems. But the conspiracy early in our history was to forge a new republic separate from the existing one. As for Texas California, they were first a republic and intended on nation status first.
But West Virginia is an interesting one. Though, the scholars will posit that it is moot due to the fact that it is the fruit from a poisoned vine.
mp(Excellent) writes: Boys and girls, meet Marcus J. Schrenker, CEO of Heritage Investments and his lovely trophy wife Michelle, CFO.
Marc and Michelle, at the time this photo was taken, were living big in Indiana. Don't they look well-scrubbed and so much in love?
Those are real people? Behind the cosmetic surgery and the manipulated photo? Why would you trust those obvious marionettes with anything, they're polished little sock puppets on the end of an ego.
Wow mp, quite a find. That should go into Conjure's scrap book. I know it goes into mine.
Comrade Volker the Viking(Unrated) ## You're being disingenuous and duplicitous in your reasoning. The only person you convince here is yourself and any other self deluded tyro.
Good morning, Volker. Is that really you? We are bullshitting on his front porch you know.
He (Reagan) had an infectious enthusiasm for life, was a devout believer in America, and worked very, very hard for what he believed in.
And what he believed in was Bush's America. He couldn't achieve it while he was in office because the Democrats were still too strong and he had only two terms. You've finally got it, so how do you like it?
"But Republicans shouldnt cry for Ronald Reagan; the truth is, he never left them. Theres no need to reclaim the Reagan legacy: Mr. Bush is what Mr. Reagan would have been given the opportunity."
It's obvious between this, and a couple of companies recently (cough) lowering their dividends to .01 that there's a lot of marketing value is being able to say "we've paid a dividend continuously since blah blah blah".
Fuck that. Isn't one of the reasons we're in this mess because some securities were priced or rated at levels they didn't deserve?
If you screw up so badly that you're forced to eliminate your dividend for a few quarters, then
(excuse me).
GET ON WITH IT ALREADY, AND ELIMINATE YOUR DIVIDEND.
STOP TRYING TO APPEAL TO "WIDOWS AND ORPHANS" TYPE SHAREHOLDERS IF YOU'RE NOT THAT KIND OF STOCK"
Isn't it a bit early for everyone to be bashing Obama? He might be great, he might be utterly crap. I hope he lives up to his own hype but I sadly expect him to be another expensive empty suit politician.
However - I'm going to reserve judgment until he actually gets the chance to do something. The entire world economy is swirling around the bowl. He didn't make the mess and he's going to have a hell of a time fixing it. He probably can't but at least give him 6 months to prove he's failed instead of bashing him before he even gets to start.
People who bash Obama now are doing nothing but showing their own bias and ignorance. I'd have said the same about Bush in his first 6 months by the way.
ztexas writes:
As the economy circles the bowl on its way down, at least we'll have a leader who speaks in complete and grammatically correct sentences.
Citi doing tortured deals with KKR, using money it loans to KKR, in which KKR buys back its own unsalable assets.
WITH TAX DOLLARS.
STILL.
No just oh yeah, HELL YEAH. This is what being a banker is all about. A deal so tortured not even the people involved know what's going on.
How many of these parking deals are we going to see? This is not the first time this has happened.
Is there a reversion clause if the value of the assets drops where KKR keeps the money but pushes back the assets? I know some of these deals have had such clauses.
I guess you could sell it several times then, and the only challenge would be getting your vig back from KKR.
Not to suggest impropriety from American investment banker and private equity players, heaven forfend.
Mr. Barack Hussein Obama- What about a $3000/yr tax credit to encourage hiring US citizens to fill jobs in the USA, or will you keep flooding the economy with H1B visa workers and illegal aliens?
You campaigned on helping the US auto industry, so how do you intend to do so?
Sorry, but a $500 payroll tax credit is not going to help anything. Keep the money for you unaffordable social programs.
Es geht. Too early. Went to bed at 12, spouse up at 5, still coffing out the last of a NYE bug, which is not improved by this sort of nonsense. Contracting is dead as a doornail. Gonna nap in the afternoon.
"But what this tells us is that Mr. Bush, not Mr. Reagan, is the true representative of what modern conservatism is all about. And its the movement, not just one man, that has failed."
Krugman is an idiot. He wouldn't know TRUE conservatism if it came up and bent his dumb ass over. What a thing to have to read before coffee....
MrPeregrination(Unrated) writes: People who bash Obama now are doing nothing but showing their own bias and ignorance. I'd have said the same about Bush in his first 6 months by the way.
Can I argue counter to this, partly just for the sake of staging it?
Bush showed early he would be the kind of prez he was -- first 6 months includes the first Bush Bribe, right, where he mailed out the surplus checks? I would say that set the tone.
Obama appears to be a prisoner of his eunuchs / mandarins. We will see. It is definitely worth seeing from the abstract perspective that the moral authority of the office has diminished considerably.
Bush showed early he would be the kind of prez he was -- first 6 months includes the first Bush Bribe, right, where he mailed out the surplus checks? I would say that set the tone. Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.13.09 - 7:41 am | #
I hesistate to comment on your comment, but I'd argue his very early EPA and Anti-trust Justice Dept. decisions were as or more revealing than the stimulus 'bribe'. Those offered much more meaningful insight into the mindset that, when applied to financial regulation, led us to our present mess.
EU: monitors report little gas flowing to Europe
43 minutes ago
BRUSSELS, Belgium (AP) The European Union says its monitors report that little or no gas is flowing to Europe from Russia and Ukraine.
Russian state gas monopoly Gazprom claims Ukraine has blocked gas supplies that restarted soon after 0700GMT Tuesday. Russia accuses Ukraine of stealing gas intended for Europe.
EU spokesman Ferran Tarradellas Espuny said "very limited" amounts of gas started flowing to Ukraine and only through one entry point from Russia. He said EU monitors still don't have full and free access to dispatching centers in Kiev or Moscow to check the gas flow. The article requested is no longer available.
Black Star Ranch(Unrated) writes: Krugman is an idiot.
Now I know why I don't read him. Sorry Krugs -- I know you're reading this -- you don't understand us at all. You can certainly try to score points to expand your viewpoints share of the political mindspace but I can also call you a lib. To what end?
Do you want a Republic or a civil war? You can rake the Republican party over the coals all day and night, but there are a lot of American conservatives who just handed you an election pal.
We also live in this country. We are also aggrieved. Alienate us at your peril.
I think the first three months of Obama will be quite sad. Each of his interest groups will peck and squabble like baby birds trying to get their share of the digested mouse out of the craw.....
I believe he's an empathetic man with true beliefs in his vision of America - this episode will sour him immensely. I don't think he has the "chutzpah" or personal makeup to be a Pelosi, Immanuel or Clinton. He's no thief or scoundrel.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins(Excellent): We also live in this country. We are also aggrieved. Alienate us at your peril.
By this I don't man that we're gonna shoot the place up, I just mean that this victory -- like all American political victories -- is the product of an artificial coalition. This Government in particular is an unlikely coalition of people who Just Don't Like Republicans.
You best steer this jalopy with a keen awareness of its fragility. Your governing consensus can in fact collapse.
You best steer this jalopy with a keen awareness of its fragility. Your governing consensus can in fact collapse. Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.13.09 - 7:54 am | #
To which, I say "thank god we don't live in England or Italy".
Scott(Unrated) writes: I hesistate to comment on your comment, but I'd argue his very early EPA and Anti-trust Justice Dept. decisions were as or more revealing than the stimulus 'bribe'. Those offered much more meaningful insight into the mindset that, when applied to financial regulation, led us to our present mess.
Good observation. That's another good data point. They don't have to be exclusive. We can definitely expect to see revealing things out of Obama in the initial part of his reign.
pls explain more about capital investment? what are the stats for "falling off cliff" and in a consumption downturn why do we want more output investment?
As a percentage. I have to wonder how many of you have relationships outside of the internet. Alas I digress. For all that we have witnessed over the past eight yrs. It would appear that things could only get better. All things considered, I believe that no one can say exactly what the future will bring. Market up , market down, and by how much. Better off throwing a dart.
Ah, the imperial construct. I look forward to the day when the paradigm shifts to 'administration' v 'reign'. They still govern at the consent of the governed, in theory at present. I still have a clear remembrance of a time when I sat in Wendell Ford's office and blistered him with questions about what he would do and how he would vote on specific issues coming before the Senate. He said at one point that, 'I don't care what the people think, we're going to pass this for their own good!' That's when I launched. He and I bumped into each other a couple times afterward. He remembered me fondly. I guess because after we left his office I launched on two of his aides in the hall before I flounced off.
Speaking of alienation, O is manoevering legislation from a position of youth and humility vs congressional leaders. His ability to do that effectively is one reason he was able to run.
I expect more definitive data points from his acts as executive, directing the agencies he 'controls'.
I expect more definitive data points from his acts as executive, directing the agencies he 'controls'.
ren | 01.13.09 - 8:09 am | #
Just like W, O will discover that many positions in said agencies are staffed by holdovers from the previous administration. He'll be the better part of a year (maybe two) clearing out these 'obstacles' to change absent a serious cleaning of these posts, some of which require Senate confirmation. O! don't we need Andy Jackson now.
Scrap the payroll tax for both employers and employees. Assist the states with their unemployment funds. raise the tax on imported oil.
Do nothing else.
.....Controls? Obama unfortunately will be likened to the position of "referee" in a "professional" wrestling match trying his best to harness or corral his "merry band of followers".
BSR: I just flashed on an image: O, jacket off, tie loosened, shirtsleeves rolled up, sneakers instead of wingtips. Furniture pushed back off the rug Clinton loves, Ohunkered down on his knees slapping the floor once, twice. The contestants break apart just as he's about to lower the boom for the third count. One guy tags his partner and assails the weakened opponent. Sexy women shouting from the edge, tossing trash cans to their gladiator, tripping their hated antagonist. Great stuff. Thanks!
why did JPM move up their earning announcement to Thursday (from next Wednesday) ?
IMO, the FRB is going to shovel as much crap under the Bush rug as possible. From a public confidence perspective, you certainly don't see the aftermath JPM's earnings first thing next Wednesday.
Just like W, O will discover that many positions in said agencies...
No doubt. It is going to be a while before we learn whether O can do anything with either congress or the federal agencies.
But, he can be more direct in formulating policy in the executive branch. In terms of reading tea leaves, his policy statements there will be less muddied by his attempt to make and keep friends on the hill.
Much as we need immediate solutions, he's going to be while finding his feet. I just don't think the withdrawal of a tax cut proposal re the stimulus bill that congress will write and re-write is an accurate indicator of much about him.
Comrade Volker the Viking(Unrated) writes: Byz-Ist es nass da, oder soennig?
Meistens neblig.
Ah, the imperial construct. I look forward to the day when the paradigm shifts to 'administration' v 'reign'.
It's complex. Administrators are what they are. More likely to ignore you as they are a manager and management is a skilled knowledge profession. Less likely to practice feudalism / kleptocracy under the rubric of rule.
I would not discount the concept of leadership as practiced by the Man Facing South, who is not a part of anyone's clique.
You can really only evaluate it in the context of a larger system. I hope it doesn't sound indifferent, I just seem them as different little mechanisms, good for different things, and somewhat substitutable.
I keep seeing the economy as a high-rise office tower burning at the top, from where financial executives have safely jumped into federal fire department rescue nets, while the remaining tenants are being told not to flee but stay on the job because the fire will be put out and the building saved, but as the fire spreads downward to lower floors many are abandoning their work stations and escaping with their lives and the petty cash drawer, while others appear willing to stay as instructed, and may lose all, as the fire guts all offices to ground level. The replacement fire chief and his new crew will never save this doomed building.
But, he can be more direct in formulating policy in the executive branch.
And those loyal appointees will place his orders in the in-box to be gotten to when there is time. I don't wanna sound pessimistic, but then again what do I know? I sell advertising.
Hey, in american parlance this would read : But it's better than expected!
Werner | 01.13.09 - 8:37 am | #
Werner, that is funny! Please share any news and views from your ringside seat regarding this gas spat. Update:
Ukraine: Russia demands impossible gas route
KIEV, Ukraine A top Ukrainian official says Russia is trying hard to discredit Ukraine by sending natural gas intended for Europe on a technically impossible transit route over Ukraine's vast pipeline system.
Ukrainian energy adviser Bohdan Sokolovsky says Russia has shipped natural gas along a route that would require Ukraine to cut domestic consumers out before it can deliver gas to the Balkans.
Russia's Gazprom state-controlled gas monopoly resumed shipments to Europe via Ukraine on Tuesday, but then accused Ukraine of blocking the transit of gas. Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Volker we don't disagree re administrative apathy.
Those employees aren't loyal, though some of them have professional dedication to their vision of their job.
I'm just talking about clarity in the midst of smoke and mirrors. Anything he manoevers through congress will reflect him less than a directive to his agencies. Whether the agencies implement is a different question.
Comrade Kristina writes:
C is already almost another 7% down in premarket...I think FFDIC was probably more correct than some gave him credit for...
If you call Citi they'll cash advance you all of your available CC balance at 0% for 6 months with a fee. GF's friends and family are sinking so I ordered up a check for almost all of her $24k line. Who says banks aren''t lending.
Ghost of F. D. Roosevelt(Unrated) writes: Shabbat goy Bush humiliates his nation again
Don't do that, don't let them make their religion your politics. Religion and politics being interchangeable are the devil of that region and you do not wish to import it, it's pernicious.
You best steer this jalopy with a keen awareness of its fragility. Your governing consensus can in fact collapse.
Obama seems to believe this somewhat, and that is precisely the problem.
He will be judged in the end by results. Which is why it is worse than a waste of time to placate people whose prescriptions have repeatedly failed, and will fail again. The way to show the natives that your missionary physician is better than their witch doctor is to let the physician do his job--not to dispense antibiotics but compromise by putting them into a chicken swung around your head.
If he is persuaded a Keynesian stimulus is necessary, then he should just do it without regard for the babblings of Senate Republicans. Because no matter how much he compromises, the Republicans will hang it around Democrats' neck anyway. Might as well do something with a theoretical chance of working.
Obama is just a puppet...he was chosen to bring confidence, so you would invest and spend your money to be lost forever to foreign governments. It's called the New World Order, and he mentioned it in his Berlin speech.
Solution: Don't spend your money. Especially don't spend it on imports from China. Don't put it in retirement accounts, as they are a creation of the NWO to keep your money.
It's interesting that they're setting him up just like they set up Kennedy.
Do any of you rabid ideologues really think that Obama will get the blank check from the bond market he will need to do anything but hold the status quo??
My my,how quickly we forget recent lessons of the past.
As a rule I am not in favor of tax incentives for investment. But accelerated depreciation under current circumstances might make sense because it is really a cash flow transaction and under current credit crunch conditions corporations will be applying much higher discount rates than the governments cost of borrowing so in situation it might result in incremental spending. But even so so I think it is pretty small.
Comrade Kristina writes:
C is already almost another 7% down in premarket...I think FFDIC was probably more correct than some gave him credit for...
Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 01.13.09 - 8:51 am | #
I think there is a big bank failure in the cards- otherwise why all the drama over the second half of the TARP funds? BO could have asked for it on the 20th and got it on the 21st. I think we might see some bank get a qualified opinion from its auditors.
It could be 10 years, like the '29 crash. I feel it will be at least 5 years, but its just a gut feeling.
Kondratieff canuk | 01.13.09 - 2:25 am | #
Recessions are what the free market needs to purge its excesses. Put another way a free market without excesses is like a constipated human being.When Greenspan started to make avoiding recessions the goal of the Federal Reserve the die was cast.
Although not a fan of National Review (star burst Lowry) I think it is fair to ask why 1919-1921 depression is not a fair comparison rather than 1929. In that depression GDP and prices fell by as much as the 1929 depression but it was followed by the roaring 20's.
November 2010: midterm erection.
Comrade Volker the Viking | 01.13.09 - 7:58 am | #
In which I expect the Dems will lose some house and senate seats, but retain control in both.
Eric | 01.13.09 - 8:01 am | #
Not if they maintain this folly of trying to bailout dead homeowners. 92% of homeowners are making their payments. The bailout homeowner will become the "welfare queen" of the 10's. I have been a loyal democrat and if they bailout dead beat homeowners I wouldn't vote for them. Do the cram down. BTW why not institute a retroactive tax on gains made from selling homes and the bonuses collected on wall street.
"If you want to feel profound sadness talk to a group of 12-16 year olds"
Add to that a group of 58 yr olds like me, self-(under)employed, little prospects of sustainable income,unemployable, no benefits,home equity gone, and an IRA worth 40% less than a year ago.
Who's first
whats on second
does this mean the 4.1 million jobs are cancelled?
Am I Second?
today is pitching to tomorrow
Well, at least they're not being completely rigid.
A spent dollar not collected in taxes is a spent dollar someone else must pay.
Every job lost is a tragedy. We should spare no expense and use all our power to prevent even a single job from being lost. We must save as many souls as possible.
It is God's will.
Rigid? Hell, it just shows they don't have a friggin' clue what to do, only that they want to "do something". It's politics by trial balloon again.
C'mon, CR, admit it; he's blowing in the wind.
Amateur Hour, coming to The White House in one week.
"Rigid? Hell, it just shows they don't have a friggin' clue what to do, only that they want to "do something". It's politics by trial balloon again."
Anybody who would even think he had this situation wired... would probably be George W. Bush.
The only way out of this is trial and error. I'm encouraged.
All the King's horses and all the King's men......
Am I Second? writes:
Every job lost is a tragedy. We should spare no expense and use all our power to prevent even a single job from being lost.
Am I Second? | 01.13.09 - 12:31 am | #
yes... especially those jobs that don't even exist yet.
What did we expect?
He has no experience, no track record. He has never been tested under real pressure.
The data is coming at him at a furious pace, and it is all bad. He leaps from issue to issue, desperate to come up with a solution. Where is the originality, the creativity, the CHANGE.
He's slowly running out of energy. Drowning. Right. In. Front. Of. Your. Eyes.
Sold to you.
deliberative politics is great when you need a broad consensus(and you don't have the votes)
He has the votes to do anything within reason. All he has to do is say economists couldn't show value.
Rigid? Hell, it just shows they don't have a friggin' clue what to do, only that they want to "do something". It's politics by trial balloon again.
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) | 01.13.09 - 12:34 am
C'mon, CR, admit it; he's blowing in the wind.
Amateur Hour, coming to The White House in one week.
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) | 01.13.09 - 12:37 am
I'm not trying to incite the crowd (honestly), but... I'm going to go on record saying that after 4 years, there's a chance that Obama will be considered worse than Bush.
"Obama advisers said further adjustments may be made to the president-elect's tax priorities, including to a proposed $500 payroll tax credit for individuals. ..."
Rats! I was hoping to take my $500 payroll credit and immediately credit myself with some extra GLD. Sure, they'll keep the $1000 credit for the fancy pants couples, but nothing for us "sin"-dividuals ... and all because of my commitment phobia.
Boys and girls, meet Marcus J. Schrenker, CEO of Heritage Investments and his lovely trophy wife Michelle, CFO.
Marc and Michelle, at the time this photo was taken, were living big in Indiana. Don't they look well-scrubbed and so much in love?
Marcus, as you may or may not be aware, bailed out of a perfectly good airplane somewhere over Alabama.
I wonder why?
Presented Without Comment, Marcus, Michelle, The Malibu - Dealbreaker - A Wall Street Tabloid - Business News Headlines and Financial Gossip
Bob,
Grant you the "wired". However, this isn't even trial and error, because it isn't reaching the "try" stage, at least not in terms of economic change. The only "try" I see here is trying to get something past the Hill. If you want to make an impact you have to have an idea and the conviction to sell it; you don't just go throwing shit against the wall to see what'll stick.
I have a good idea for a shovel ready project..
Beating wall streeters to death with shovels.
Hey, what about me and all the other horny Americans?
mp - I don't get the relevence
ot-
Chinas Exports Fall by Most Since 1999 on Recession
China’s Imports, Exports Plunge on Global Recession (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
might have been posted, my bad if so..
God help obama because if he modifies a policy proposal or changes his mind it shows weakness and indecision
God help obama because if he maintains his original position despite input and argument from those on his left and on his right it shows he is rigid, self important and a tyrant
God help obama
because if he fails the country is going to get flushed down the crapper
mp - I don't get the relevence
jus me | 01.13.09 - 12:58 am | #
he used a gold-foil parachute and christened the plane "Global Economy"? I'm only guessing here.
Just checked the Heritage website -
'Our goal is to allow you to enjoy your wealth by reducing the burden of asset management'
Uh oh. Are the wealthy really that stupid?
As the economy circles the bowl on its way down, at least we'll have a leader who speaks in complete and grammatically correct sentences.
To extend this metaphor, with sufficient angular momentum, I suppose that the economy can be kept circling indefinitely (quant easing). But it would make more sense to block the downward route w/ a heavy meal of burritos (bank holiday / nationalization).
With those parting thoughts, good night. You're welcome.
This is the only mistake I've seen Obama make so far, and while that's a good thing (only one clear mistake), I'd sad to see this interesting tax credit for job creation idea disappear.
It only needed working out details to solve all the possible problems, and could have been a real plus.
Authorities believe Schrenker was last seen Monday morning in Childersburg, Ala., just south of Birmingham, when a man using his Indiana driver's license told police that he'd been in a canoe accident. He was wet only from the knees down and had what appeared to be goggles made for flying.
The Growing Clout of the Nouveau Poor
The Nation
The Growing Clout of the Nouveau Poor
By: Barbara Ehrenreich
ow here is an example of leadership and decisiveness that the country could count on
Where Did The Bailout Billions Really Go? - CBS Evening News - CBS News
(when it came to handing out the TARP money) "some analysts say the idea is to strengthen the banking industry by giving strong banks the means to take over weak ones.
It's not necessarily working out that way.
Some banks judged by federal regulators as "strong," like Merrill Lynch and Provident Bancshares, are the very ones getting bought out.
And some in Congress are upset that the Treasury Secretary is hand-picking winners and losers.
In a November 14 hearing, Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif., said: "Hank Paulson gets to decide who lives and who dies? Who buys whom?"
Take PNC Bank and National City. Both wanted bailout money but only PNC got it: Then, it bought National City.
Rep. Kucinich is from Cleveland, where National City was based. He grilled the Treasury official in charge of the bailout, Neel Kashkari, saying in the Nov. 14 hearing: "You picked a winner, PNC, and you picked a loser, National City Bank."
Kashkari responded: "With deep respect, it is not appropriate for me to speak about an individual institution, but I can talk generally about "
"Well, with deep respect, you know, you put 4,000 people out of work in the city of Cleveland," Kucinich said. "You're, you know are you taking a Fifth Amendment here?"
see
this is what decisiveness cn get you
bush and hank and their progeny will receive the THANKS of the winners that hank PICKED
"He was wet only from the knees down and had what appeared to be goggles made for flying."
Bright boy, huh? Purdue graduate.
Michelle, the CFO, filed for divorce last month.
I wonder why?
Hmmmm.
China's Exports Fall by Most Since 1999 on Recession
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ne...DqaA& refer=home
cd | 01.13.09 - 12:58 am | #
BBC take on the same story... wow.
I'll give Obama credit for one thing.
At least he's trying.
As opposed to his predecessor, who clearly wishes he was back in Crawford 3 months ago.
Give Obama a break. He's been handed the biggest shit sandwich of all time.
Give Obama a break. He's been handed the biggest shit sandwich of all time.
max flatow | 01.13.09 - 1:10 am | #
Mr President Elect... Would you care for some fries with that?
That Obama will try a stimulus package is a given. This is what all the "mainstream" economists suggest and he would be crucified if he didn't do something along these lines. What he does in response to the stimulus package falling flat on its face is what will determine the fate of his presidency, and the fate of this country for quite a while.
Hmmm...pondering...pondering
China's Exports Fall by Most Since 1999 on Recession
Japan Current-Account Surplus Narrows 66% on Exports
Have China export to Japan.
Have Japan ship it right back to China.
Problem solved! It worked for Global Crossing.
mock,
He is caught between a rock and a hard place, and I'm convinced there's little he can do to stem the inevitable. However, I'd like to see something solid with some conviction behind it, even if I don't entirely agree with it. If he doesn't believe in something he's just an empty suit that gives good speeches (like Clinton), and I'd like to believe he's more than that. I voted for him hoping for that.
The idea that nothing will "fix" the economy actually gives him opportunities few presidents ever have. If there were a path with any potential it would be a straitjacket; they wouldn't let him do anything else. However, given that there is no clear path he can blaze a new one without fear... the consequences can't be much worse than those already baked in -or- those to be found in failed Keynesian pipe dreams.
ille_vir +1
BBC
take on the same story... wow.
dryfly | 01.13.09 - 1:08 am | #
The BBC article still talks about 7.5% growth. Here they are talking about potentially 5%. Based on the drops of South Korea exports to China from yesterday, I wouldn't be surprised to see even less than that. I will get interesting.
... But independent analysts have predicted growth could slow to as little as 5 percent as factory output growth grinds to a halt and exports shrink in the face of falling global demand. ...
ille_vir +1
spectatulator | 01.13.09 - 1:17 am | #
I'll second that. Does that make it +2?
It's hard to analyze a plan without many details, but this seems like progress.
Based on the estimates given by the ARRP, business tax credits was responsible for the "creation" (even though it appears that this particular credit would have been given for saving jobs) of about 400K jobs. It can't be the whole 400K jobs, can it?
Give Obama a break. He's been handed the biggest shit sandwich of all time.
max flatow
It's clear to me that McCain chose Palin so that he would lose the election. He may be stupid, but he's not dumb.
dryfly writes:
\tMr President Elect... Would you care for some fries with that?
dryfly | 01.13.09 - 1:13 am | #
-----
I think I can understand the "give 'em a break" attitude, but the man did sign up for the gig, spent 100+ million USDs to earn the gig, and is now being exposed by the gig. What kind of rhetorical break are we suppose to give the man? He is asking for TARP money which has been one of the biggest jokes and lamentations on this blog--and elsewhere.
We get a proposed 3.5 million job idea which is bumped up to 4.1 million within hours. We had his chief economist come out with ideas and plans that run 150-180 degrees from her academic research. Mix in the fact that Congressional Democrats are already causing a fuss for him and Democratic leadership, and where does the exactly leave us with this President-To-Be?
I agree with ille_vir that it isn't so much the "Just do something!" sentiment that is drawing howls and jeers. It is the response to the failure that is causing people to heckle the Man o' Change. Playing to the crowd is a dangerous gambit, and many men have been devoured by a crowd who were lead in optimism to their doom.
lle_vir writes:
That Obama will try a stimulus package is a given. This is what all the "mainstream" economists suggest and he would be crucified if he didn't do something along these lines. What he does in response to the stimulus package falling flat on its face is what will determine the fate of his presidency, and the fate of this country for quite a while.
Well put. I am in this camp also. He's between a rock and a hard place. Three years from now, the rock will will be bigger and the place harder.
spent 100+ million USDs to earn the gig,
You're only off by half a billion...
With all of the countries China is exporting to sporting a drop in GDP, why would China grow at all? Where do they get this talk of positive growth? The -8.6% energy consumption yoy in Nov. should be telling us something, no? Does a growing economy ever consume less energy?
Let me also point out the obvious that he's not president yet.
And we can all argue all night whether what he's been talking about will make things better or worse, but let's face it, what does anybody know? We're in uncharted waters here.
I think we should all pray (or at least Pavel should
that Obama suceeds. I don't mind making money off of puts, but I'm not looking forward to eating freeze-dried food for a year. Knowing that I was "right" won't make me enjoy it.
Honestly, it seems like the predictions of slower, but still positive growth in China for this year coming out of big institutions are out of a politeness/courtesy thing to the Chinese government. They're using less energy! They're shrinking! Or else they're suddenly getting more efficient in terms of energy use. (I guess that's possible, considering how high enery costs were earlier in the year, but still unlikely)
mock turtle at 1:00
Its not that he changes his mind. It is supposed to be a well thought out program. But if Reps. want xyz then in they go. But Nancy doesn't like it out it goes. Its like watching Groucho and Chico negotiating a contract.
YouTube - A Night At The Opera: Contract scene
Part of my frustration stems from the way DC does business.
I mean, hell, if you believe something's worth doing it should be in your plan and you should fight to keep it there. OTOH, if it's not worth doing it shouldn't be there in the first place.
Unfortunately, DC plays a game where you always ask for more than you want and then give away things (that you may or may not care about) while hoping to salvage some part of what you do want. So far it appears he's willing to play the game instead of changing it.
It is supposed to be a well thought out program. But if Reps. want xyz then in they go. But Nancy doesn't like it out it goes.
A little schoolhouse rock...
Thread music
Worried about what mp is posting, but maybe we'll get some Conjure updates soon. Or not.
In the mean/deadtime... a little Iron Maiden. Seems appropriate somehow. YouTube - Iron Maiden - The Number Of The Beast (Live at Ullevi)
anonymous writes:
\tYou're only off by half a billion...
anonymous | 01.13.09 - 1:26 am | #
-----
Fine, let me tighten up my amount. While all of his expenses have not been calculated--I think?--his campaign raised ~650 million USD by November, 2008. Even if it is a shit sandwiche with a toxic sludge shake, I don't think you should get too much of an "Aww, poor thing..." when you spend so much time and energy to raise and spend that much money.
Either way, We Americans are in "Where Obama Goes, So Go I' mode. For better or worse.
I'll be relieved if they omit the provision that would allow reckless companies to recoup taxes (going back up to 5 years instead of 2) paid on profits made doing stupid things. Yeah, let's reward homebuilders and banks for taking stupid risks back then. We'll just cushion them from heir inevitable losses.
By keeping that provision out of any stimulus plan, the government can keep me from becoming a tax evader.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
"Finger length may predict financial success"
Any idea what Bushes hand looks like compared to Obamas?
Very good discussion of banks and the lending/borrowing freeze, with World Is Curved author David M. Smick, now, on Coast2Coast radio.
ille_vir writes:
\tHonestly, it seems like the predictions of slower, but still positive growth in China for this year coming out of big institutions are out of a politeness/courtesy thing to the Chinese government. They're using less energy! They're shrinking!
ille_vir | 01.13.09 - 1:30 am | #
-----
Did you not get the memo that the US economy will recover 2nd Half of '09? Worse case, 1st Half of '10.
I do agree with you that the energy use is a telling sign of their receeding economy, and if the reports play out, the long Chinese New Year will continue that trend. We may see 1Q09's energy usage drop by another 8-10% if not more. They definitely aren't importing anything for their export sector, and they aren't consuming larger and larger amounts of their own production. Honestly, if bsetser's last blog concerning Taiwan's & Korea's recent declines, I cannot imagine how China keeps their boat afloat.
It is definitely not the Year of the (American) Pig for them...
plschwartz
as you know politics is the art of compromise
obama suggested some of the tax incentives to bring republicans on board
the republicans have rebuffed him
so the offerrings are questioned
from the article CR quoted
"Obama suggested the $3,000-per-job credit last week as one of five individual and business tax incentives aimed at winning Republican support.
snip
Republicans reacted favorably to the higher-than-expected ratio of tax breaks to spending... But they offered mixed reviews of his specific tax proposals and floated their own, including cuts in corporate and capital gains taxes."
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,600188,00.html
This is an article I originally read on http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/
. It follows the journey of a laid-off Chinese factory worker from Guangdong back to her home in Hunan. Long journey. What struck me is that she's only 17 years old, looks even younger than that, and has no idea, in my opinion, how bad things are going to get in her country. Worth the read.
Last one - Solomon Burke "None of Us Are Free"
max flatow writes:
but let's face it, what does anybody know? We're in uncharted waters here.
Reading Marketwatch.com over the weekend i saw that 48% percent of economists polled thought that the USD was in for a beating over the next 6 months, and the balance disagreed and predicted the USD would strengthen. It doesn't bother me a wit that there is this gulf, but its worth noting that a group of people whose profession it is to understand the economy are half right.
I have my own future picture that i reasoned out in simple terms. I see the last 6 years of economy as a fraud - a fake. Chinese production based on trillions of dollars loaned into an artificially constructed consumer economy, one where westerner's spent like drunken sailors. Now, not only do we have to pay it back, but the Governments involved have turned the public purse spigots wide open making every effort to perpetuate the same type of spending that created the disaster. My conclusion is, more spending based on debt can only exacerbate the problem and lead to an even worse economic sinkhole. But this is just common sense, and i am probably completely wrong.
Pissed Off In California writes:
20090...inancial_finger
"Finger length may predict financial success"
right idea
maybe wrong apendage
Subsidize that which you want more of,
and tax that which you want less of.
Confirmed, Asia sh!tpile led by Topix, check this out for fugliness:
INDEX\tVALUE\tCHANGE\t%CHANGE\tTIME
TOPIX INDEX (TOKYO)\t814.12\t-40.90\t-4.78%\t01:00
TOPIX CORE 30 IDX (TSE)\t481.73\t-26.08\t-5.14%\t01:00
TOPIX LARGE 70 IDX (TSE)\t726.34\t-41.15\t-5.36%\t01:00
TOPIX 500 INDEX (TSE)\t643.67\t-33.02\t-4.88%\t01:00
TOPIX SMALL INDEX (TSE)\t820.98\t-32.47\t-3.80%\t01:00
TOPIX MID 400 INDX (TSE)\t826.68\t-36.03\t-4.18%\t01:00
TOPIX 100 INDEX (TSE)\t567.96\t-31.33\t-5.23%\t01:00
TSE2 TOPIX 2ND SECT INDX\t1,940.94\t-17.07\t-0.87%\t01:00
NIKKEI 225\t8,413.91\t-422.89\t-4.79%\t01:00
NIKKEI 300 INDEX\t166.27\t-8.28\t-4.74%\t01:00
NIKKEI 500\t723.24\t-30.11\t-4.00%\t01:00
JASDAQ: STOCK INDEX\t46.40\t-0.42\t-0.90%\t01:00
NIKKEI JASDAQ\t1,092.97\t-7.76\t-0.70%\t01:03
TSE REIT INDEX\t842.19\t-49.54\t-5.56%\t01:00
TSE MOTHERS INDEX\t329.55\t-5.79\t-1.73%\t01:00
OSAKA SE HERCULES INDEX\t502.61\t-9.01\t-1.76%\t01:11
For the "meh, who cares" crowd, this is the second largest economy in the world. Still.
C
More debt is not the solution for too much debt.
I actually liked the ideas of flat tax crank on cnbc, but with a big twist - instead of a stupid and regressive 17% flat tax which will never happen, why not just hack 15% off of everyone's marginal rate? that's probably about seven or eight hundred billion, and almost everyone would appreciate it.
First of all, worldwide almost all investors and employers have become very risk adverse. This plan of Obama's does not recognize this fact at all. It assumes that just by dumping nearly a trillion dollars down the toilet that the market psychology will change. There is nothing in this plan that would encourage investors or employers to be less risk adverse. The only thing is the whole plan that conceivably helped business was his vague "Business Tax Credit", was has been quickly dumped.
Second, it reads like a huge trillion dollar give a way to the who's who of Democrat interest groups. It even notes that the Afro-Americans, Hispanics and women will be helped most by this plan.
Third, by it's own admission, this plan is not a plan at all but only a "framework". Obama just voted present again. He is not trying. He is not changing the nature of government, he is reinforcing the worst aspects of it. He is going to let Nancy and Harry do the heavy lifting here, which means in the end this plan will be even more of a socialist give a way, loaded up with useless pork for their favorite victim groups than it already is.
Why should we give the Democrats and Obama a chance? They are the ones who created the Community Redevelopment Act, helped ACORN extort billions from Banks, leaned on banks and Wall Street to be give un-collateralized loans to the downtrodden, and along the way made Fannie and Freddie an unsupervised Ponzi like welfare scheme that has driven the entire world economy into a deep and dangerous ditch.
"Still."
i really want an excuse to buy ewj. japan now looks like silver in '02 - the worst long-term investment ever. that's the kind of think i like to see.
If you want to make an impact you have to have an idea and the conviction to sell it; you don't just go throwing shit against the wall to see what'll stick.
This is called "negotiation" and the country would be much better off if the very-soon-to-be-ex president did it occasionally. Not only is there nothing wrong with it, it's the main route for how the public's opinion feeds into decisions. Obama can only poll-watch but congresscritters get down with their constituents every week. Granted, they don't always listen; but if the President doesn't listen to them he not listening to us and that's very bad.
Plus in the current unsettled situation, with essentially all academics admitting they didn't see it coming, humility is called for. Certainty now is schizophrenic.
anyone know what's wrong with Yves lately? She's just posted about 10 replies to a bunch of fools over a story that looks like she's a pumping maniac. Are there any blogs left worth a crap?
Ilargi: $45 billion. That's the amount of money, your money if you're American, that Citigroup received from Henry Paulson's TARP funds a few months ago. The funds that Congress overwhelmingly agreed he could spend, no questions asked, and with 100% legal immunity. Even when, mere hours after your democratically elected officials voted YES!, YES!, please!, all-knowing hammer!, so we won't have anarchy, and so we can keep our bloated rear ends in our velvet seats, Paulson simply stated he was going to do something totally different with the $350 billion first installment.
$45 billion went to Citi. Today, Citi sells its brokerage unit, Smith Barney, which delivered a $7.9 billion profit last calendar year, 16.3% of Citis profits, to Morgan Stanley. For $2.5 billion. And I've read a lot about this today, with some smart punditry among it, but nobody I've seen has asked: HEY!, what happened to my $45 billion? We can safely assume that Smith Barney was one of Citis best performing units, if only because there are no buyers for the lesser ones. And yes, sure, there is more creative accounting, but of course there is. Citi gets to write the deal up for over $10 billion.
Why should we give the Democrats and Obama a chance? They are the ones who created the Community Redevelopment Act, helped ACORN extort billions from Banks, leaned on banks and Wall Street to be give un-collateralized loans to the downtrodden, and along the way made Fannie and Freddie an unsupervised Ponzi like welfare scheme that has driven the entire world economy into a deep and dangerous ditch.
Sigh. You need a little basic eduation. CRA, ACORN, and Fannie/Freddie were bit players at best in causing the disaster. CRA loans and Fannie/Freddie loans both did better than private loans, so insofar as they affected things, they helped.
"helped ACORN extort billions from Banks"
as opposed to helping Banks (and KBR, Blackwater and assorted defense interests) extort trillions from taxpayers?
I see the last 6 years of economy as a fraud - a fake.
Kondratieff canuk | 01.13.09 - 1:48 am | #
Only the last 6? I'd count almost the entire Greenspan era, and then go on to point out that the era of the boomer / globalization / reserve currency / cheap energy was a unique historical anomaly that won't be repeated for a while.
Anonymous(Unrated) writes:
anyone know what's wrong with Yves lately? She's just posted about 10 replies to a bunch of fools over a story that looks like she's a pumping maniac. Are there any blogs left worth a crap?
Hm. It seems to me all she's saying is that there will be ups and downs on a general slope downwards. Isn't that a given?
I don't see the point in banishing Obama to the dust bin of history before he's even inaugurated.
When they say they are worried about "reward[ing] behavior that was possibly irresponsible..." does that include the politicians who doled out $350B to insolvent banks without any strings attached?
"I don't see the point "
the idea is to make him into jimmy carter such that a new reagan can arise from the ashes and lead the GOP to new glories. part one could happen and might even be likely, but part two is about as likely as me starting as a defensive end in the nfl next year.
This is called "negotiation"
Fair Economist | Homepage | 01.13.09 - 1:53 am | #
I'd prefer to see a little something called "leadership".
Instead of bargaining with those on the Hill why can't he use those great oratorical skills and appeal directly to the people, ala Kennedy or Reagan? You convince enough voters then their legislators have no choice but to come on board.
"ala Kennedy"
please, god, no.
at this point, JFK's inclusion as one of the ten worst presidents ever should be crystal clear.
"JFK's inclusion as one of the ten worst presidents ever should be crystal clear." - Mitigated only by his very short time in office.
The problem with all these incentives and tax credits is that they are very diluted by the time they work their way down to a business decision maker at a company. I'm speaking from personal experience. It doesn't take much economic dislocation to swamp an incentive by an order of magnitude or two. Yet ironically the credits and incentives are very expensive in the aggregate. The other problem is that political pressure tends to narrow the credits and incentives so they aren't generally applicable. Mostly this kind of thing shows up when your CFO or CPA tells you that you benefited from it after the fact. That's always a good feeling, but it's not like someone's going to decide to open up a $50K/year job because there's a $3K tax credit hanging around. (Sure, you can claim it will affect borderline cases, but the actual cost for such job generation is going to be 10x to 50x the credit cost since most will be unintentional awards.)
Improved tax treatment of business expenses has a much larger effect on business decision makers because they affect repeated smaller decisions. The R&D tax credit was very successful for stimulating high tech for many years, though its eventual (politically-based) unreliability reduced the effectiveness. You can't make decisions based on tax law when nobody knows what the law will be by the time you file.
The best way to generate jobs is to promote new/growing small businesses. They hire few people per business, but vast numbers in the aggregate. Also small business tends to be very fiscally aware so small dollar amounts can have large effects. They are also more flexible and responsive. By the time a company has 500 employees they're not going to change much just because you throw a quarter million at them. Sure, they'll be grateful but we want change, not gratitude. If instead you offer $2500 each to 100 companies averaging 5 employees they are at least going to think about how to qualify for the incentive. (Speaking generally; you can scale the numbers by industry/region.)
bgates,
I wasn't commenting on Kennedy or Reagan as presidents per se, simply on their ability to give truly inspiring speeches.
"Mitigated only by his very short time in office."
sort of - LBJ definitely took the poisoned ball and ran with it to the end zone repeatedly
Eep, that "cash on the sidelines" comment is a bit out of character for Yves though. Hmm...
"their ability to give truly inspiring speeches"
true, but I wonder if that charisma is more of a liability than anything else. could this supply-side orgy which ended in such disaster have taken root without the gipper's smooth confidence? could our slippery slope towards funny money and not-so-funny empire have occurred without the "idealism" and romance of camelot? i wonder.
just as the recent gap between the djia and spx closes up, the gap between feb and mar crude widens. odd.
Lightweight:
German Chancellor Angela Merkels coalition agreed to spend an additional 50 billion euros ($66.8 billion) in the next two years.
And the euro will be $1.25 next week.
i wonder.
bgates | 01.13.09 - 2:11 am | #
Yeah, me too.
Still, where do we get without some kind of vision and leadership? As they say, if you want to kill something put it to a committee.
Was Reagan really that charismatic? I was just a kid, but he never really seemed inspiring to me, and his wife just plain scared the heck out of me. What was his draw?
The more charismatic the politician,
the more damaging the results.
Better apply the vasoline liberally - we are going to need it more than ever now.
"What was his draw?"
He was percieved as the antidote to the runaway tax and spending that preceded him.
Paul writes
"Third, by it's own admission, this plan is not a plan at all but only a "framework". Obama just voted present again. He is not trying. He is not changing the nature of government, he is reinforcing the worst aspects of it. He is going to let Nancy and Harry do the heavy lifting"
---just voted present again???
what the hell are you talking about
who just voted present again???
"Democrats and Obama.. are the ones who created the Community Redevelopment Act" you said
huh...are you joking?
CRA has been around for nearly 40 years...and we have a blow up after 8 years of the bush ownership society and hands off regulation
Paul, for the love of pete get a clue
read how bush and greespan pushed these new exotic loans for cryin out loud
The more charismatic the politician,
the more damaging the results.
Charisma | 01.13.09 - 2:15 am | #
LOL! Unfortunately, there's a LOT of truth in that.
You know, any time I've heard someone try and make a case for gun control I've always suggested they try replacing "gun" with "word" (i.e., "word control"), since the greatest killers in history (Mao, Stalin, Hitler, etc.) used words as weapons. Of course, those pressing gun control don't often get the point.
greespan
mock turtle | 01.13.09 - 2:19 am | #
Is that pronounced "grease pan"?
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) writes:
Only the last 6? I'd count almost the entire Greenspan era, and then go on to point out that the era of the boomer / globalization / reserve currency / cheap energy was a unique historical anomaly that won't be repeated for a while.
Since Reaganomics i guess you mean. I'm not knowledgeable enough with all the aspects to have an informed opinion covering the last 28 years in one fell swoop. I do understand that Capitalism and monetary policy need to co-exist and that inflation is part of maintaining a fractional reserve banking system, HOWEVER the last 6 years are obviously a departure from economic fundamentals. An economy driven by financing consumerism can only last for so long and we exhausted the model. It could not continue. A recession is self correcting. This melt down is not self correcting unless all the bankruptcy and job loss is allowed to occur. We have to go though this. Perhaps it is an Ayn Rand cycle indeed. It may be long and deep but eventually it will end and capitalism will turn growth positive again. It could be 10 years, like the '29 crash. I feel it will be at least 5 years, but its just a gut feeling.
"Was Reagan really that charismatic? "
yes, he was. he was a real pro, in the literal sense, and his shilling for GE back in the 50s polished his shtick to a bright sheen. central casting could not have come up with a better figure for the frazzled, second-guessing, downbeat late 70s. those 'morning in america' commercials were real classics, and his 'there you go again' sting on carter was devastating on every level.
he was also a low-IQ tool of the mob via MCA and an utter disaster for our social and economic integrity in the long run. but the man was a hell of a talking head!
Anonymous(Unrated) writes:
anyone know what's wrong with Yves lately? She's just posted about 10 replies to a bunch of fools over a story that looks like she's a pumping maniac. Are there any blogs left worth a crap?
Hm. It seems to me all she's saying is that there will be ups and downs on a general slope downwards. Isn't that a given?
ille_vir
~~~~~
Never did get her answer about a Bank Holiday ... but then all economists are dodging that one ...
LOL !
Fk it, if you folks are doing nothing but politics, then fuggeddit. I thought this was a finance and econ site.
Sheesh.
C
" I thought this was a finance and econ site."
this thread is explicitly political.
and, in any case, fiat currency is a political entity, not an economic one. so what is economic that isn't political? i'd love a discussion on the oil/gold ratio if you want to go there, but that's about it.
The "bipartisan spirit" under which Obama hopes to govern will shortly be revealed to be marsh gas.
It made sense only for campaigning. Obama needs precious little support from Republicans to pass legislation, and they are in too much disarray to act as a monolithic bloc. So he'll have no trouble peeling off a few votes if he needs them.
But he DOES need the support of the grass roots Democrats who believed his mantra of CHANGE.
They are the ones he'd better pay attention to. They want the change he promised, and they want it now. They want the entire Bush junta in chains. They want its tentacles of corruption ripped loose from the institutions of government.
And they sure as hell don't want to hear soothing appeals to not "play the blame game."
Paul. i apologize if i was rude above
this article is for Paul only
(it aint cra... it was low interest rates, new kinds of mortgages and bush's ownership society nonsense w/o regulation
what i asked you to read...
from NYT article
"Eight years after arriving in Washington vowing to spread the dream of homeownership, Mr. Bush is leaving office, as he himself said recently, faced with the prospect of a global meltdown with roots in the housing sector he so ardently championed.
There are plenty of culprits, like lenders who peddled easy credit, consumers who took on mortgages they could not afford and Wall Street chieftains who loaded up on mortgage-backed securities without regard to the risk.
But the story of how we got here is partly one of Mr. Bushs own making, according to a review of his tenure that included interviews with dozens of current and former administration officials.
From his earliest days in office, Mr. Bush paired his belief that Americans do best when they own their own home with his conviction that markets do best when let alone.
He pushed hard to expand homeownership, especially among minorities, an initiative that dovetailed with his ambition to expand the Republican tent and with the business interests of some of his biggest donors. But his housing policies and hands-off approach to regulation encouraged lax lending standards."
THE RECKONING; White House Philosophy Stoked Mortgage Bonfire - NY Times
"They want the entire Bush junta in chains"
no, but a glass box in the Hague isn't a bad idea
For the "meh, who cares" crowd, this is the second largest economy in the world. Still.
Counterpointer | 01.13.09 - 1:51 am | #
C,
The fact that its current account surplus dived 66% in November is also VERY disconcerting. The world economy is in serious trouble and an unhealthy Japan and China will not be good for the U.S. either. See my platform company comment earlier today.
bgates writes:
this thread is explicitly political.
Agreed. Now that the Gov is charged with 'saving' the economy, how can you talk about one, and not the other? You cannot.
I don't think you can draw a correlation between gold and oil. Gold is the money system of last resort. It only becomes important when confidence in the world currency base becomes an issue. Oil correlates to industrial demand. Demand for oil could stay flat is the absence of a currency crisis. Correct?
Sigh. You need a little basic eduation. CRA, ACORN, and Fannie/Freddie were bit players at best in causing the disaster.
Fair Economist | Homepage | 01.13.09 - 1:56 am | #
Facts are beyond the ideology crowd. They can only nod their ditto heads...
Typo - Demand for oil could stay flat IN the absence of a currency crisis.
Charisma writes:
The more charismatic the politician,
the more damaging the results.
Truman and Lincoln are my two favorite politicians. The quiet guys who got the job done and do it for the fact they agreed to do the job to the best of their abilities.
Examine the people who you work with and how their work habits tie into their outward personalities. Maybe you'll be surprised at who you would keep in deciding who you'll layoff.
I always keep the quite, earnest and hard working. If you're in charge of a sales group disregard. Keep the load and outgoing.
What happened to the logic of appointing the people who do not seek power? The competent and credible... Service as a civic duty...
Not all of America has drank the kool aid of form over substance. Where is the innate goodness that makes up the bedrock of our national identity?
Bring on the hard times. A redefining of who we are is necessary.
Oil is a resource that will deplete over time. Gold is not. The utility of oil is realized by burning it. Gold, by keeping it around. Why would there be a set ratio between the two? My wife was convinced of this too, and I had a long talk with her over this.
Couterpointer, see this from Caijing Daily (English version, with link to Chinese version)? Check out some of the other 1/13 stories on this link, including Goldman reducing a stake in a gold miner, and and Disney to build a theme park in Shanghai. Mickey Rat?
China Becomes Member of IDB » China joins the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) group, the most important regional development institution in Latin America. » Two China Central Bank governors, Zhou Xiaochuan and Hu Xiaolian, will become take on representatives in the IDB. » China's membership will help boost China-Latin American cooperation. Full article in Chinese: http://www.caijing.com.cn/2009-01-13/110047340.html
Subsidize that which you want more of,
and tax that which you want less of.
\t Obvious | \t \t \t \t01.13.09 - 1:49 am | #
Unfortunately, even many smart people here confuse democracy with capitalism.
I made huge capital gains this year. It would be ridiculous to tax them at a lower rate than any other earnings.
unirealist | 01.13.09 - 2:33 am | #
I am a card carrying member of the grassroots you describe. There must be legal consequences to the actions that have led us here.
Teaching our children how to define right and wrong against a back drop of the last 10 years is impossible. If you want to feel profound sadness talk to a group of 12-16 year olds. Intelligent and resourceful enough to understand the issues but hopeless in how they feel about the future. For the children's sake alone I hope this train wreck can be cleaned up and the pieces cobbled into something else entirely. Something better.
What really amazes me is that people still have children in this age.
Following on Japan's economy chatter.
Auto sales in China were reported to be up 6.something% over 2007 for all of 2008. One year before YoY was up 20%. This should be one of the more reliable Chinese statistics.
If you assume exporters noticed trouble last spring/summer, at which point there was a step change:
- 1/4 of 20% growth
- 3/4 of 0% growth
= close enough to 6%
Nothing special about this, just thought I would share that perspective. On the larger topic of Asian exports, I would comment that this is all according to plan (my personal expectations)
I'm just waiting for the open financial war in currency markets. pussyfooting bothers me
I've followed this thread with interest and would like to say something concerning Ronald Reagan.
I never voted for the man, but can tell you one thing: he was not stupid.
He had an infectious enthusiasm for life, was a devout believer in America, and worked very, very hard for what he believed in.
"What really amazes me is that people still have children in this age."
What generation hasn't said just that?
And we also have to recognize that the pain ahead, however extreme, might just yield something really and truly good. Societies don't up and change: they get shown the meat-grinder first, and either change or are fed into it.
ille_vir(Unrated) writes:
\tWhat really amazes me is that people still have children in this age.
\t ille_vir | \t \t \t \t01.13.09 - 2:54 am | #
My sons turn 8 and 10 in the next few weeks. Last night, their grandmother was visiting and brushing hair. She grew up in Shanghai and Honk Kong between 1936 and 1948, and spoke of the whine of Japanese airplane engines as they delivered their nightly cargo. How she still can remember that sound. Her mother, my grandmother, would have the two girls brush her hair to calm them. She was one of the few white women in HK not incarcerated after 1941 as the occupying army attempted to sway her father in law, an iron foundry owner, into making munitions for them. He never caved.
My point is, children are a blessing. The future is bleak - but when you learn stories of making do, and humor, and what truly is of value - relationships, and courage, and integrity - perhaps you will one day find the desire to share them with your own offspring.
i quit
JFK's inclusion as one of the ten worst presidents ever should be crystal clear.
Because my middle name is "Open-Minded," I'd like to hear the justification for this statement.
Are historians rendering this judgment, or are you bitter because JFK had more panache than all the Republican Presidents since then put together?
mp,
Personal motivations are not what concerns most people here. They care about results.
To put it another way, if Obama really really really wants good things to happen for America but things go down the crapper then he will not be popular.
If there is a reassessment of Reagan going on, I think it is because a lot of modern social malaise has been linked back to his administration. The deregulation or socialization of costs, the burgeoning government spending, a toying with religion and politics reminiscent of expensive lessons learned with WWII that gave rise the idea of a secular government.
Philosophers and english majors have latched on to the distaste for Wal-Mart, outsourcing, unequal access to justice according to wealth, and unconscionable executive pay. What was in Reagan's heart doesn't matter, because people do not like those problems and over time society can source back the symptoms to the cause. Those problems are present and inherently more personal
Now that Morocco Bama is asleep, I'll ask this.
How many of you people have him on ignore? I've had to browse CR from work without CR Companion filtering and I forgot how prolific, trollish, and utterly worthless his posting is. I don't trash other posters much, in fact, I've never come out and singled someone out, but his posts are just a remarkable combination of both inflammatory nonsense and just utter empty noise.
Am I alone in this?
our slippery slope towards funny money
--bgates
JFK introduced the silver certificate. It was LBJ and Tricky Dick who debauched the currency.
Anonymous | \t \t \t \t01.13.09 - 3:10 am | #
Anonymous | 01.13.09 - 3:10 am | #
Consider copping a handle and staying around. If your other thoughts are similarly well presented, you will engender some lively discussion.
JFK also printed more US Notes, a currency which replaces federal reserve notes because they're printed by the treasury itself.
Why we need this federal reserve intermediary to create inflation by channeling freshly printed dollars into the pockets of its cronies is anyone's guess. This "essential inflation" for the economy should be generated by the treasury, and the money should be more efficiently introduced at the stage where it will make the most inflationary impact for the least amount of printing: the pockets of the poor. Why give it to the rich to hoarde?
It's cool that people find some value in investing in the future by having kids. My wife and I were having a conversation about this the other day though. In the large-family household model, with the heir taking over the household, there was a definite incentive to having more kids. They were not only a source of labor for the household, a productive child guaranteed security in old age for the previous generation. In a nuclear family model though, there is no incentive to having kids, aside from a quasi-religious "having kids is cool" kind of spiritual justification. All they do is drain the resources of two already strapped parents, and make it harder for them to be physically mobile. It seems to me the drive to have children is borne more out of a sense of self-preservation rather than a "children are a blessing" kind of thinking, and that is why birth rates have fallen dramatically in mature societies.
My wife and I felt that having children would not only not be in our own self-interest, we would not be bringing them into a future in which we had confidence.
I've mentioned it before, but I have morocco bama on ignore. Not just because of the name, but after a few comments, it just wasn't worth reading.
Thx for the feedback regarding Reagan, btw. It's hard for some of us to get a sense of how much effect he had on the landscape.
after a few comments, it just wasn't worth reading.
Yeah, I generally love reading people I disagree with, but it is such a wearying chore to go through for him, like it's painful to read, and I only realize it after I'm half way through a post and it's just so inane that I have mistakenly read half a MB post. I can really take a lot when it comes to internet posts, but it's just unpleasant and unrewarding. I really can't deal with it when he's posting so prolifically if I don't have some sort of ignore script active. He just won't shut up and he has nothing to say, and he's sitting around posting all day so he inevitably picks fights 10% of the time and pisses off good posters. Ugh. UGH.
Hoop,
Easy to skim. This being the wild west and all, no guns blaring, no blood flowing, there's no harm in ranting.
w/r/t having children -- If I were rich and could devote the time to raising a child in the manner a human being deserves to be raised, I would do it. I do not see myself being able to support a family financially and devote the resources to raising a child in any suitable manner. Thus I cannot afford to raise a child in this economy. And I'm a high earner.
If you want to feel profound sadness talk to a group of 12-16 year olds.
--anon
I have an 11 year-old and a 17 year-old. Enough said.
ille_vir, hoop -
If all events can only be viewed through the lens of economic cost-benefit analysis, then each of your reasons are irrefutable.
What price can you put on the laughter of a child, or the phrase, "I love you Dad"?
Paul, why aren't the banks lending anymore? Who repealed the community re-investment act? Aren't the banks in violation of the law if they aren't loaning to everyone that walks in the door?
When did you go off of your meds?
Hoopajoops, LTD(Good) writes:
\tNow that Morocco Bama is asleep, I'll ask this.
How many of you people have him on ignore?
Hoopajoops, LTD | Homepage | 01.13.09 - 3:12 am | #
Hoop, I only have 3 people ignored and he's one. If I'm ever feeling charitable I can click the "dim filtered comments" button and scan the noise with reduced annoyance.
The fat that scares the cat (The image and the cartoon).
Also read the article about fats and friends: You and Your Fat Friend!
Life After Thirty
The above post is SPAM.
My driving philosophy in life is to have the least impact on this world as much as possible. Having a child seems to me to be the most impact one can have. Although it would be cool to have an adoring little one that I could watch grow up, I'm just not into it. I don't care whether my genes are passed on or not, there is enough variety in the world already. I hope that those of you who do have children can teach them to be good stewards of the world we live in, and that they will have positive impacts on their environment. Hope that sounded hippy enough lol.
I'm not paying too much attention to him, but I thought I'd seen MB post inflammatory political stuff from both sides.
ille_vir
Sounds like a reasonable world view. Ever hear of the Jain sect in India (yes, you know the name.) Not so well known, Gandhi was born and raised in a Jain -predominant area, and their philosophy heavily influenced his non-violent practices. Essentially all life is so precious the monks swept the ground in front of their feet, to prevent stepping on any unsuspecting critters.
I'm thinking they didn't go in for much squirrel hunting.
w/r/t having children
Hoopajoops, LTD | Homepage | 01.13.09 - 3:22 am | #
No one has children for any sensible reason, just as there's no particular reason to go on living, but we do it anyway. It's absurd (from Camus, The Myth of Sisyphus). I think I could have lived my life quite happily without a child, but on the other hand, I can live quite happily after having a child,...but with a lot more grey hairs. As bad as things might get here, I'm sure the children will still be better off than eigthy or ninety percent of the world., even without a "perfect" childhood.
I'm not trying to incite the crowd (honestly), but... I'm going to go on record saying that after 4 years, there's a chance that Obama will be considered worse than Bush.
Smartass | 01.13.09 - 12:47 am | #
Look smart ass ... he's done more before he's taken power than George the lesser did in 8 years.
It's not going to be pretty, but at worst Obama will be mediocre, not a complete failure.
Really amazing how lightly even Obama administration is proposing new tax cuts when the federal budget is already shot to hell.
So many countries/states/municipalities are going to offer bonds to finance their deficits this year that supply will be outstrip the demand badly. Financial Times estimated that $3000 billion worth of new bonds will be issued this year. Add to that rollover debt, in the US alone it is whopping $6000 BILLION! Short-term rollover financing has been the name of the game especially in the muni bonds.
World probably would absorb gigantic US deficits alone but not all western and even developing countries offering bonds at the same time. During this Q1 especially EU countries are rapid firing new bonds to the markets, probably exhausting the demand before US will even start issuing bonds for the stimulus. Talking about economic preemptive strike...
Even if all investors buy bonds what will happen to other markets? Those will collapse and take the economies with it. There just isn't enough money for both in the world right now.
Though not exactly on topic, Spain and California do share a number of interesting parallels, both housing bubbles and geographic. Not to mention the need for economic stimulus, at least in the sense of responding to the massive problems caused by collapsing housing prices and construction activity.
And what has been part of Spain's response to its economic problems? High speed rail.
Yes, yes, I know - the Spanish are being unfathomably stupid, at least if some of the profoundly insightful experts here are to be believed.
The socialists, in particular, are responsible for this -
'Zapatero, who has put infrastructure projects at the heart of an anti-recession surge in public spending, plans to invest 108bn (£96bn) in the high-speed rail network until 2020.'
Spain's high-speed trains steal passengers from airlines |
World news |
The Guardian
And look at the already concrete results of this decision -
'Spain's sleek new high-speed trains have stolen hundreds of thousands of passengers from airlines over the last year, slashing carbon emissions and marking a radical change in the way Spaniards travel.
Passenger numbers on fuel-guzzling domestic flights fell 20% in the year to November as commuters and tourists swapped cramped airline seats for the space and convenience of the train, according to figures released yesterday.
High-speed rail travel - boosted by the opening of a line that slashed the journey time from Madrid to Barcelona to 2 hours 35 minutes in February - grew 28% over the same period. About 400,000 travellers shunned airports and opted for the 220mph AVE trains.'
Amazing - and obviously just another reason to question whether the Spanish, along with such other societies as Japan, Germany, and France, understand how stupid passenger rail is. Especially the high speed variety.
Of course, Spain has all of those unique advantages of European geography -
'In a country where big cities are often more than 500km (300 miles) apart, air travel has ruled supreme for more than 10 years. A year ago aircraft carried 72% of the 4.8 million long-distance passengers who travelled by air or rail. The figure is now down to 60%.
"The numbers will be equal within two years," said Josep Valls, a professor at the ESADE business school in Barcelona.
Two routes, from Barcelona to Malaga and Seville, opened last week. Lines are also being built to link Madrid with Valencia, Alicante, the Basque country and Galicia. The government has promised to lay 10,000km of high-speed track by 2020 to ensure that 90% of Spaniards live within 30 miles of a station. The prime minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, boasts it will be Europe's most extensive high-speed network.'
Obviously, 300 miles apart doesn't describe America geography at all - at least for those who are convinced beyond even the glimmer of doubt that passenger rail, much less the high speed variety, can ever function anywhere in North America.
And unlike air travel, the Spanish train systems offers such disadvantages as these -
'High-speed rail tickets are often cheaper. The lowest one-way price on the 410-mile Barcelona-Madrid route this month is 44 (£40). Rail operator Renfe says 99% of trains on the route arrive on time.
That sort of efficiency was sorely missed at Madrid's Barajas airport at the weekend. Tens of thousands of passengers suffered delays of up to 30 hours because of snow, a work-to-rule by Iberia pilots and a lack of air traffic controllers.'
Luckily for Americans, in part due to the tireless efforts of many, including treatise writing exponents of exurban paradise, the odds of America having such a dysfunctional and inefficient system as the Spanish are so low as to be laughable.
Besides, who wants to actually live within a few miles (particularly by exurban standards) of a station that will likely deliver you to a city faster and cheaper than an aircraft, much less than by car. Worse, many of those Spanish cities actually have trams, buses, and all the other horribly flawed concepts (walkable neighborhoods, anyone?) which fail so miserably in the U.S., thus proving beyond any intelligent doubt how flawed such concepts truly are.
Obviously, the world has no concept of how much better they could live if they just followed the revealed preferences of Americans. The Spanish seem especially ignorant of how to do things the American way, as they are likely to also keep idiotically investing in various solar/wind projects, which would power their electrified trains. Meaning that the Spanish could actually travel in their own country, using their own trains, powered by their own generated electricity, instead of paying for the privilege of filling their tanks to such friendly people as Chavez (who the Spanish king told to shut up), Putin, and the madcap mullahs of Iran, not to mention the House of Saud, whose dedication to religious education world wide is beyond dispute. Pity that their idea of religious education also includes the AK-47, RPG-7, and car bombs.
Much like the idea of being forced to use universal health care, Americans can remain quite secure that they will not also be forced into using high speed rail to get from city to city. And they can also comfort themselves that high speed passenger rail doesn't work, has never worked, and will never work, just because.
Then they can start waving their hands fast enough to achieve escape velocity from the bonds of the mundane world around us.
The difference between Spain and California is that Spain is independent nation. California is dependent on Washington, DC.
Imagine if almost all the political power in EU were given to the Brussels. That would be roughly equal what USA today is.
EU would be dysfunctional corrupted society overnight with lobby armies just waiting to get their dirty hands to the common money cookie jar. Imperial military army and EUROLAND security police would be created to protect the "vital interests" and against domestic "terrorists", public healthcare and education systems would be abolished and so on.
Before USA as society can even begun somekind of healing process, it must be divided into smaller more governable entities in which local people decide what is best for themselves, not the rich elite, lobby armies and special interests groups.
from the article:
But another Obama proposal, to allow companies to deduct larger portions of recent losses, has raised eyebrows on the Hill, where lawmakers see it as a costly reward for behavior that was possibly irresponsible.
So, lemme see if I get this straight. We gotta, gotsta save the banksters but you people can go screw yourselves. Yep. Par for the friggin course.
cr writes:
It's hard to analyze a plan without many details, but this seems like progress. The larger deductions for tax losses can be junked too, although the capital investment tax incentive is probably worthwhile since capital investment is falling off a cliff.
You're being disingenuous and duplicitous in your reasoning. The only person you convince here is yourself and any other self deluded tyro.
Even if all investors buy bonds what will happen to other markets? Those will collapse and take the economies with it. There just isn't enough money for both in the world right now.
supafly73 | 01.13.09 - 4:39 am | #
Sorry to break in on the erudite recourse concerning Spain and California, but I feel it necessary to point out that there isn't any money in the world. It's all a paper con game and for anyone to read with understanding any attempt to posit otherwise is doing a disservice to the situation. So there.
It's not going to be pretty, but at worst Obama will be mediocre, not a complete failure.
Bubblisimo Gerkinov | Homepage | 01.13.09 - 4:20 am | #
If up is down, and wrong is right then what does it matter what they say of whom?
I for one, am certain they are measuring Mount Rushmore for his soon to be chiseled visage.
Hoopajoops, LTD writes:
JFK also printed more US Notes, a currency which replaces federal reserve notes because they're printed by the treasury itself.
Do the time lines of his presidency up to and including Dallas. Some light might come on when you juxtapose the issuance of U S Notes and subsequent events. All the other horseshit is just noise.
Before USA as society can even begun somekind of healing process, it must be divided into smaller more governable entities in which local people decide what is best for themselves, not the rich elite, lobby armies and special interests groups.
supafly73 | 01.13.09 - 5:18 am | #
http://caselaw.lp.findlaw.com/data/constitution/amendment10/
This is an appropriately facile a response to your post. Also, read some Virginia (regarding Kentucky), Texas and California history. There are others, but these might 'help' you with a more robust understanding of America.
Or Virginia, regarding West Virginia.
'After the Wheeling Conventions, West Virginia broke away from Virginia during the American Civil War and was admitted to the Union as a separate state on June 20, 1863, and was a key Civil War "border state." It is one of only two states formed during the American Civil War (along with Nevada, which separated from Utah Territory) and is the only state to form by seceding from a Confederate state and one of three states to secede from another state (the others being Kentucky and Maine).'
West Virginia - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
That's right - a state formed by seceding from a seceding state. I don't think that the Constitution was ever envisioned to cover such situations, but flexibility when facing political disintegration is often a virtue. And ponder this - was West Virginia correctly admitted?
People should get used to a lot more of these arrangements in the future.
The last time such massive shuffling occurred was during Roosevelt's four terms - the four terms themselves being a breaking of American political convention, leading to the constitutional result that Ronald Reagan could not be re-elected to a 3rd term. Sometimes, I too praise the far sighted wisdom of the Republican Party.
Congress should create a guest worker program for lawyers so we can both hire foreign lawyers and offshore lawyer jobs for $8 per hour in China.
In the case of Kentucky, Kentucky was a county of Virginia and is one of only three commonwealth systems. But the conspiracy early in our history was to forge a new republic separate from the existing one. As for Texas California, they were first a republic and intended on nation status first.
But West Virginia is an interesting one. Though, the scholars will posit that it is moot due to the fact that it is the fruit from a poisoned vine.
If one is to be fleeced, best to be fleeced golden. And how, absent sufficient dollars, would one acquire controlling interest in CalTex?
RTO,
Nice light reading on SpainTech available at
Technology Review: New Technologies in Spain
articles on aerospace, biotech, desalination, infrastructure, et cetera . . .
Let's hope President Obama sees the light and drops the hideously corrupt tax loss carryover extension (for businesses) to five years as well.
This is nothing more than a blatant theft from the Treasury to reward money losing home builders, banks and retailers.
SEC-USA v. Bernard Madoff Court Filings Update
SEC-USA et al v. Bernard Madoff
mp(Excellent) writes:
Boys and girls, meet Marcus J. Schrenker, CEO of Heritage Investments and his lovely trophy wife Michelle, CFO.
Marc and Michelle, at the time this photo was taken, were living big in Indiana. Don't they look well-scrubbed and so much in love?
Those are real people? Behind the cosmetic surgery and the manipulated photo? Why would you trust those obvious marionettes with anything, they're polished little sock puppets on the end of an ego.
Wow mp, quite a find. That should go into Conjure's scrap book. I know it goes into mine.
They want the change he promised, and they want it now.
How do you define change and without a definition why should we be for it?
Got peak civilization?
Ellen Brown's dx & cure.
Web of Debt - CREDIT WHERE CREDIT IS DUE: THE DIRECT WAY TO FIX THE CREDIT CRISIS
Comrade Volker the Viking(Unrated)
## You're being disingenuous and duplicitous in your reasoning. The only person you convince here is yourself and any other self deluded tyro.
Good morning, Volker. Is that really you? We are bullshitting on his front porch you know.
He (Reagan) had an infectious enthusiasm for life, was a devout believer in America, and worked very, very hard for what he believed in.
And what he believed in was Bush's America. He couldn't achieve it while he was in office because the Democrats were still too strong and he had only two terms. You've finally got it, so how do you like it?
"But Republicans shouldnt cry for Ronald Reagan; the truth is, he never left them. Theres no need to reclaim the Reagan legacy: Mr. Bush is what Mr. Reagan would have been given the opportunity."
Don’t Cry for Reagan - New York Times
Just cut the thing to zero already.....
Sheesh. (Obama to limit dividends....)
It's obvious between this, and a couple of companies
recently (cough) lowering their dividends to .01 that
there's a lot of marketing value is being able to say
"we've paid a dividend continuously since blah blah blah".
Fuck that. Isn't one of the reasons we're in this mess
because some securities were priced or rated at levels
they didn't deserve?
If you screw up so badly that you're forced to eliminate
your dividend for a few quarters, then
(excuse me).
GET ON WITH IT ALREADY, AND ELIMINATE YOUR DIVIDEND.
STOP TRYING TO APPEAL TO "WIDOWS AND
ORPHANS" TYPE SHAREHOLDERS IF YOU'RE
NOT THAT KIND OF STOCK"
Good morning, Volker. Is that really you? We are bullshitting on his front porch you know.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.13.09 - 7:08 am | #
Hey, Byz! Wie geht's mate?
I thought I was serenading from neath the spreading sour apple tree. Just fuckin wid 'em.
Isn't it a bit early for everyone to be bashing Obama? He might be great, he might be utterly crap. I hope he lives up to his own hype but I sadly expect him to be another expensive empty suit politician.
However - I'm going to reserve judgment until he actually gets the chance to do something. The entire world economy is swirling around the bowl. He didn't make the mess and he's going to have a hell of a time fixing it. He probably can't but at least give him 6 months to prove he's failed instead of bashing him before he even gets to start.
People who bash Obama now are doing nothing but showing their own bias and ignorance. I'd have said the same about Bush in his first 6 months by the way.
ztexas writes:
As the economy circles the bowl on its way down, at least we'll have a leader who speaks in complete and grammatically correct sentences.
Exactly right.
Does a growing economy ever consume less energy?
ille_vir | 01.13.09 - 1:27 am | #
+1
Wondered if people had seen this from Dealbook, via Dealbreaker:
Dealbreaker - A Wall Street Tabloid - Business News Headlines and Financial Gossip - Citigroup's Other 'Financial Engineering' Project Still Moving AheadFinancing KKR Buying Loans To KKR
Citi doing tortured deals with KKR, using money it loans to KKR, in which KKR buys back its own unsalable assets.
WITH TAX DOLLARS.
STILL.
No just oh yeah, HELL YEAH. This is what being a banker is all about. A deal so tortured not even the people involved know what's going on.
How many of these parking deals are we going to see? This is not the first time this has happened.
Is there a reversion clause if the value of the assets drops where KKR keeps the money but pushes back the assets? I know some of these deals have had such clauses.
I guess you could sell it several times then, and the only challenge would be getting your vig back from KKR.
Not to suggest impropriety from American investment banker and private equity players, heaven forfend.
Mr. Barack Hussein Obama- What about a $3000/yr tax credit to encourage hiring US citizens to fill jobs in the USA, or will you keep flooding the economy with H1B visa workers and illegal aliens?
You campaigned on helping the US auto industry, so how do you intend to do so?
Sorry, but a $500 payroll tax credit is not going to help anything. Keep the money for you unaffordable social programs.
He probably can't but at least give him 6 months to prove he's failed instead of bashing him before he even gets to start.
Fair enough but the question may be is our government losing it's moral authority to lead?
Comrade Volker the Viking(Unrated) writes:
Hey, Byz! Wie geht's mate?
Es geht. Too early. Went to bed at 12, spouse up at 5, still coffing out the last of a NYE bug, which is not improved by this sort of nonsense. Contracting is dead as a doornail. Gonna nap in the afternoon.
"But what this tells us is that Mr. Bush, not Mr. Reagan, is the true representative of what modern conservatism is all about. And its the movement, not just one man, that has failed."
Krugman is an idiot. He wouldn't know TRUE conservatism if it came up and bent his dumb ass over. What a thing to have to read before coffee....
Amateur Hour, coming to The White House in one week.
\t Comrade-Dope jg (jg) | \t \t \t \t01.13.09 - 12:37 am | #
So, by what signs (policy actions) will we know the difference?
This smells more like political horsetrading than policy guesses by amateurs.
MrPeregrination(Unrated) writes:
People who bash Obama now are doing nothing but showing their own bias and ignorance. I'd have said the same about Bush in his first 6 months by the way.
Can I argue counter to this, partly just for the sake of staging it?
Bush showed early he would be the kind of prez he was -- first 6 months includes the first Bush Bribe, right, where he mailed out the surplus checks? I would say that set the tone.
Obama appears to be a prisoner of his eunuchs / mandarins. We will see. It is definitely worth seeing from the abstract perspective that the moral authority of the office has diminished considerably.
Simple Minds thread music
"Don't you forget about C...,"
watch for it.
Sorry has this been answered already ..why did JPM move up their earning announcement to Thursday (from next Wednesday) ?
Bush showed early he would be the kind of prez he was -- first 6 months includes the first Bush Bribe, right, where he mailed out the surplus checks? I would say that set the tone.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.13.09 - 7:41 am | #
I hesistate to comment on your comment, but I'd argue his very early EPA and Anti-trust Justice Dept. decisions were as or more revealing than the stimulus 'bribe'. Those offered much more meaningful insight into the mindset that, when applied to financial regulation, led us to our present mess.
Hooboy...
EU: monitors report little gas flowing to Europe
43 minutes ago
BRUSSELS, Belgium (AP) The European Union says its monitors report that little or no gas is flowing to Europe from Russia and Ukraine.
Russian state gas monopoly Gazprom claims Ukraine has blocked gas supplies that restarted soon after 0700GMT Tuesday. Russia accuses Ukraine of stealing gas intended for Europe.
EU spokesman Ferran Tarradellas Espuny said "very limited" amounts of gas started flowing to Ukraine and only through one entry point from Russia. He said EU monitors still don't have full and free access to dispatching centers in Kiev or Moscow to check the gas flow.
The article requested is no longer available.
World Is Curved author David Smick on Coast2Coast repeat for anothr 20 minutes, pacific time radio.
Black Star Ranch(Unrated) writes:
Krugman is an idiot.
Now I know why I don't read him. Sorry Krugs -- I know you're reading this -- you don't understand us at all. You can certainly try to score points to expand your viewpoints share of the political mindspace but I can also call you a lib. To what end?
Do you want a Republic or a civil war? You can rake the Republican party over the coals all day and night, but there are a lot of American conservatives who just handed you an election pal.
We also live in this country. We are also aggrieved. Alienate us at your peril.
I think the first three months of Obama will be quite sad. Each of his interest groups will peck and squabble like baby birds trying to get their share of the digested mouse out of the craw.....
I believe he's an empathetic man with true beliefs in his vision of America - this episode will sour him immensely. I don't think he has the "chutzpah" or personal makeup to be a Pelosi, Immanuel or Clinton. He's no thief or scoundrel.
We also live in this country. We are also aggrieved. Alienate us at your peril.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.13.09 - 7:50 am | #
I like the way you think.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins(Excellent):
We also live in this country. We are also aggrieved. Alienate us at your peril.
By this I don't man that we're gonna shoot the place up, I just mean that this victory -- like all American political victories -- is the product of an artificial coalition. This Government in particular is an unlikely coalition of people who Just Don't Like Republicans.
You best steer this jalopy with a keen awareness of its fragility. Your governing consensus can in fact collapse.
You best steer this jalopy with a keen awareness of its fragility. Your governing consensus can in fact collapse.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.13.09 - 7:54 am | #
To which, I say "thank god we don't live in England or Italy".
He's got four years to govern.
November 2010: midterm erection.
Morning...It appears we awaken this morning with "still no confidence in our Goverment."
Let's put a muzzle on Paulson(sorry ass eliteism/class hiarchy mamma's boy."
Did he set this up to ravage the US Tresuary...Only history will tell how the robberies was an inside job.
Don't ever let someone tell you it's to complicated to understand when it's your money, your name or your honor.
Scott(Unrated) writes:
I hesistate to comment on your comment, but I'd argue his very early EPA and Anti-trust Justice Dept. decisions were as or more revealing than the stimulus 'bribe'. Those offered much more meaningful insight into the mindset that, when applied to financial regulation, led us to our present mess.
Good observation. That's another good data point. They don't have to be exclusive. We can definitely expect to see revealing things out of Obama in the initial part of his reign.
November 2010: midterm erection.
Comrade Volker the Viking | 01.13.09 - 7:58 am | #
In which I expect the Dems will lose some house and senate seats, but retain control in both.
pls explain more about capital investment? what are the stats for "falling off cliff" and in a consumption downturn why do we want more output investment?
As a percentage. I have to wonder how many of you have relationships outside of the internet. Alas I digress. For all that we have witnessed over the past eight yrs. It would appear that things could only get better. All things considered, I believe that no one can say exactly what the future will bring. Market up , market down, and by how much. Better off throwing a dart.
Byz-Ist es nass da, oder soennig?
Ah, the imperial construct. I look forward to the day when the paradigm shifts to 'administration' v 'reign'. They still govern at the consent of the governed, in theory at present. I still have a clear remembrance of a time when I sat in Wendell Ford's office and blistered him with questions about what he would do and how he would vote on specific issues coming before the Senate. He said at one point that, 'I don't care what the people think, we're going to pass this for their own good!' That's when I launched. He and I bumped into each other a couple times afterward. He remembered me fondly. I guess because after we left his office I launched on two of his aides in the hall before I flounced off.
Speaking of alienation, O is manoevering legislation from a position of youth and humility vs congressional leaders. His ability to do that effectively is one reason he was able to run.
I expect more definitive data points from his acts as executive, directing the agencies he 'controls'.
I expect more definitive data points from his acts as executive, directing the agencies he 'controls'.
ren | 01.13.09 - 8:09 am | #
Just like W, O will discover that many positions in said agencies are staffed by holdovers from the previous administration. He'll be the better part of a year (maybe two) clearing out these 'obstacles' to change absent a serious cleaning of these posts, some of which require Senate confirmation. O! don't we need Andy Jackson now.
Scrap the payroll tax for both employers and employees. Assist the states with their unemployment funds. raise the tax on imported oil.
Do nothing else.
Good mooorning Mary-nam!
Exit - thank you - I hadn't read Caijing for ages. Some of their jargon tests the outer limits of my zhongwen set, but always worth reading.
bgates - Argument accepted on political nexus.
RE - nice point, now I'm more worried.
Byz - fine work, as usual.
Exit - China began this process of pre-positioning about 4 years ago. Most of us watchers could see the writing on the wall. It's now writ. Large.
Gonna be an interesting day. Again.
C
.....Controls? Obama unfortunately will be likened to the position of "referee" in a "professional" wrestling match trying his best to harness or corral his "merry band of followers".
Comrade Volker the Viking writes:
November 2010: midterm erection.
Comrade Volker the Viking | 01.13.09 - 7:58 am
Sly insinuation that the Chinese will own the country by 2010, Freudian slip, or a just a funny typo?
BSR: I just flashed on an image: O, jacket off, tie loosened, shirtsleeves rolled up, sneakers instead of wingtips. Furniture pushed back off the rug Clinton loves, Ohunkered down on his knees slapping the floor once, twice. The contestants break apart just as he's about to lower the boom for the third count. One guy tags his partner and assails the weakened opponent. Sexy women shouting from the edge, tossing trash cans to their gladiator, tripping their hated antagonist. Great stuff. Thanks!
ACP: No, just playing with language. Language, after all is said and done, is a most limiting factor, nes't pas?
why did JPM move up their earning announcement to Thursday (from next Wednesday) ?
IMO, the FRB is going to shovel as much crap under the Bush rug as possible. From a public confidence perspective, you certainly don't see the aftermath JPM's earnings first thing next Wednesday.
Currently, it's SAPA (Same as prior administration) in that Obama and his admin. are making it up as they go. There is no game plan.
We can all hope that at some point we can pull out of this nosedive, but this truly transcends political parties, and borders.
Mais oui, Monsieur Viking.
ACP: Politics is and remains a male dominated sport.
November 2010: midterm erection.
\t Comrade Volker the Viking | \t \t \t \t01.13.09 - 7:58 am | #
Comrade Volker the Viking | 01.13.09 - 7:58 am | #
Mid-term ERECTION!? Please explain.
I am not buying a thing this snake oil salesman (Bernanke) is selling. What a load of shit.
dc1000 writes:
i quit
Rather cryptic.
Just like W, O will discover that many positions in said agencies...
No doubt. It is going to be a while before we learn whether O can do anything with either congress or the federal agencies.
But, he can be more direct in formulating policy in the executive branch. In terms of reading tea leaves, his policy statements there will be less muddied by his attempt to make and keep friends on the hill.
Much as we need immediate solutions, he's going to be while finding his feet. I just don't think the withdrawal of a tax cut proposal re the stimulus bill that congress will write and re-write is an accurate indicator of much about him.
Comrade Volker the Viking(Unrated) writes:
Byz-Ist es nass da, oder soennig?
Meistens neblig.
Ah, the imperial construct. I look forward to the day when the paradigm shifts to 'administration' v 'reign'.
It's complex. Administrators are what they are. More likely to ignore you as they are a manager and management is a skilled knowledge profession. Less likely to practice feudalism / kleptocracy under the rubric of rule.
I would not discount the concept of leadership as practiced by the Man Facing South, who is not a part of anyone's clique.
You can really only evaluate it in the context of a larger system. I hope it doesn't sound indifferent, I just seem them as different little mechanisms, good for different things, and somewhat substitutable.
Trade imbalance at the low end of the "consensus" range. Yippee! Classic case of "winning" by sucking less?
citizen energyecon writes:
...EU: monitors report little gas flowing to Europe...
Hey, in american parlance this would read : But it's better than expected!
"...at least he's trying."
Four kinds of people:
(1) bad ideas; doesn't try
(2) good ideas; doesn't try
(3) good ideas; tries
(4) bad ideas; tries.
1, 2 and 3 do no harm. 4 is a disaster. Obama a 3 or a 4?
"1, 2 and 3 do no harm. 4 is a disaster. Obama a 3 or a 4?"
We can't really know that except in hindsight, can we?
State Pension Funds $865 Billion Loss Means New Hires Get Less
GaryB(Unrated) writes:
"...at least he's trying."
Four kinds of people:
(1) bad ideas; doesn't try
(2) good ideas; doesn't try
(3) good ideas; tries
(4) bad ideas; tries.
1, 2 and 3 do no harm. 4 is a disaster.
Thank you very much, GaryB. Nice aphorism. Kinda depressing, but informative of the shape of things.
Although, GaryB, I think you should rearrange the list as follows:
(1) bad ideas; doesn't try
(2) bad ideas; tries.
(3) good ideas; doesn't try
(4) good ideas; tries
That way, I can be accurate when I say that GWB was a number 2.
1, 2 and 3 do no harm. 4 is a disaster. Obama a 3 or a 4?
GaryB | Homepage | 01.13.09 - 8:38 am | #
Unless "doing nothing" means 100% chance things will be a disaster.
Then 1 and 2 are failures, 3 is a godsend, and even 4 might be better than 1 or 2.
I keep seeing the economy as a high-rise office tower burning at the top, from where financial executives have safely jumped into federal fire department rescue nets, while the remaining tenants are being told not to flee but stay on the job because the fire will be put out and the building saved, but as the fire spreads downward to lower floors many are abandoning their work stations and escaping with their lives and the petty cash drawer, while others appear willing to stay as instructed, and may lose all, as the fire guts all offices to ground level. The replacement fire chief and his new crew will never save this doomed building.
while others appear willing to stay as instructed, and may lose all, as the fire guts all offices to ground level.
peAkcredit | 01.13.09 - 8:46 am | #
I'm thinking more like a WTC instant collapse than a controlled burn to the ground.
C is already almost another 7% down in premarket...I think FFDIC was probably more correct than some gave him credit for...
Besorgt\tdie Blitzeis.
likened to the position of "referee" in a "professional" wrestling match
Black Star Ranch | 01.13.09 - 8:22 am | #
I liken his task to that of herding cats. It's fun to watch until someone gets scratched.
Ben gets asked about the Austrian economic solution to this problem. He has no clue about Austrian economics.
Other points,
Ben says his quantitative easing (QE) is different from Japans. BS. He is trying to support asset prices. It is QE.
Ben says helping financial system over everyone else is unavoidable. He is the head shill for the banking system. WTF, he will always say this.
Ben says he is going to succeed because he has a program for everything. Hooray. More of the same shit as far as the eye can see. Fuck all this.
But, he can be more direct in formulating policy in the executive branch.
And those loyal appointees will place his orders in the in-box to be gotten to when there is time. I don't wanna sound pessimistic, but then again what do I know? I sell advertising.
Shabbat goy Bush humiliates his nation again:
Olmert Brags About Embarrassing Rice in UN Gaza Vote
Olmert Brags About Embarrassing Rice in UN Gaza Vote -- News from Antiwar.com
As Joseph de Maistre once said, a nation has always the government it deserves.
Hey, in american parlance this would read : But it's better than expected!
Werner | 01.13.09 - 8:37 am | #
Werner, that is funny! Please share any news and views from your ringside seat regarding this gas spat. Update:
Ukraine: Russia demands impossible gas route
KIEV, Ukraine A top Ukrainian official says Russia is trying hard to discredit Ukraine by sending natural gas intended for Europe on a technically impossible transit route over Ukraine's vast pipeline system.
Ukrainian energy adviser Bohdan Sokolovsky says Russia has shipped natural gas along a route that would require Ukraine to cut domestic consumers out before it can deliver gas to the Balkans.
Russia's Gazprom state-controlled gas monopoly resumed shipments to Europe via Ukraine on Tuesday, but then accused Ukraine of blocking the transit of gas.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Indiana businessman under investigation for fraud tries to fake own death:
Pilot Fakes Distress and Flees After Sending Plane to Crash - NY Times
D.B. Cooper, he wasn't...
Dude, wouldn't it just have been easier to kill yourself? Now you're a fugitive with national publicity...
PS... I guess that's a whole new definition of "bailout..."
Volker we don't disagree re administrative apathy.
Those employees aren't loyal, though some of them have professional dedication to their vision of their job.
I'm just talking about clarity in the midst of smoke and mirrors. Anything he manoevers through congress will reflect him less than a directive to his agencies. Whether the agencies implement is a different question.
Comrade Kristina writes:
C is already almost another 7% down in premarket...I think FFDIC was probably more correct than some gave him credit for...
If you call Citi they'll cash advance you all of your available CC balance at 0% for 6 months with a fee. GF's friends and family are sinking so I ordered up a check for almost all of her $24k line. Who says banks aren''t lending.
Ghost of F. D. Roosevelt(Unrated) writes:
Shabbat goy Bush humiliates his nation again
Don't do that, don't let them make their religion your politics. Religion and politics being interchangeable are the devil of that region and you do not wish to import it, it's pernicious.
You best steer this jalopy with a keen awareness of its fragility. Your governing consensus can in fact collapse.
Obama seems to believe this somewhat, and that is precisely the problem.
He will be judged in the end by results. Which is why it is worse than a waste of time to placate people whose prescriptions have repeatedly failed, and will fail again. The way to show the natives that your missionary physician is better than their witch doctor is to let the physician do his job--not to dispense antibiotics but compromise by putting them into a chicken swung around your head.
If he is persuaded a Keynesian stimulus is necessary, then he should just do it without regard for the babblings of Senate Republicans. Because no matter how much he compromises, the Republicans will hang it around Democrats' neck anyway. Might as well do something with a theoretical chance of working.
Obama is just a puppet...he was chosen to bring confidence, so you would invest and spend your money to be lost forever to foreign governments. It's called the New World Order, and he mentioned it in his Berlin speech.
Solution: Don't spend your money. Especially don't spend it on imports from China. Don't put it in retirement accounts, as they are a creation of the NWO to keep your money.
It's interesting that they're setting him up just like they set up Kennedy.
It's interesting that they're setting him up just like they set up Kennedy.
DuckkcuD | 01.13.09 - 9:22 am | #
And Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, and Bush 43.
Biden: New administration committed to withdrawal from Iraq
Do any of you rabid ideologues really think that Obama will get the blank check from the bond market he will need to do anything but hold the status quo??
My my,how quickly we forget recent lessons of the past.
Stimulus, indeed!
Markel(Unrated) writes:
Obama seems to believe this somewhat, and that is precisely the problem.
It is better to do nothing and have one broke country than do something and have two broken countries.
ew thread
As a rule I am not in favor of tax incentives for investment. But accelerated depreciation under current circumstances might make sense because it is really a cash flow transaction and under current credit crunch conditions corporations will be applying much higher discount rates than the governments cost of borrowing so in situation it might result in incremental spending. But even so so I think it is pretty small.
Comrade Kristina writes:
C is already almost another 7% down in premarket...I think FFDIC was probably more correct than some gave him credit for...
Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 01.13.09 - 8:51 am | #
I think there is a big bank failure in the cards- otherwise why all the drama over the second half of the TARP funds? BO could have asked for it on the 20th and got it on the 21st. I think we might see some bank get a qualified opinion from its auditors.
It could be 10 years, like the '29 crash. I feel it will be at least 5 years, but its just a gut feeling.
Kondratieff canuk | 01.13.09 - 2:25 am | #
Recessions are what the free market needs to purge its excesses. Put another way a free market without excesses is like a constipated human being.When Greenspan started to make avoiding recessions the goal of the Federal Reserve the die was cast.
Although not a fan of National Review (star burst Lowry) I think it is fair to ask why 1919-1921 depression is not a fair comparison rather than 1929. In that depression GDP and prices fell by as much as the 1929 depression but it was followed by the roaring 20's.
November 2010: midterm erection.
Comrade Volker the Viking | 01.13.09 - 7:58 am | #
In which I expect the Dems will lose some house and senate seats, but retain control in both.
Eric | 01.13.09 - 8:01 am | #
Not if they maintain this folly of trying to bailout dead homeowners. 92% of homeowners are making their payments. The bailout homeowner will become the "welfare queen" of the 10's. I have been a loyal democrat and if they bailout dead beat homeowners I wouldn't vote for them. Do the cram down. BTW why not institute a retroactive tax on gains made from selling homes and the bonuses collected on wall street.
Rhodesian... curious about GLD... don't see rich around like the current price... or wait...is GLD an ETF ... trading on Volat?
This is just the beginning of more things that BHO will drop. Before long, he will look more and more like a better talking version of GWB.
"If you want to feel profound sadness talk to a group of 12-16 year olds"
Add to that a group of 58 yr olds like me, self-(under)employed, little prospects of sustainable income,unemployable, no benefits,home equity gone, and an IRA worth 40% less than a year ago.
before this is all over, we will all have learned how to bend over.
Bankruptcy protection is itself a form of socialism. Let's not revive McCarthy, please.