OK, latest update on D.B. Cooper: He's apparently now e-mailed a friend and said he never meant to crash his plane, but ominously fears he'll soon be dead:
I think the weekly bank failures will finally make it into the news, just like the glorious 80's--then capitulation wielding a machete finally hacks the market down to size--right-sized.
"Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke warned that a fiscal stimulus wont be enough to spur an economic recovery and that the government may need to buy or guarantee banks tainted assets to revive growth."
Translated, stop this silly fiscal thing and give us all your money...
An anecdotal experience; my neighbor sells scrap metal to a salvage yard in Vegas for $200+ a ton. The salvage yard used to send/sell it to China. Since my neighbor is only able to get $50. a ton now from the salvager, it sits in his yard. We don't have uses for scrap metal HERE?
The interesting effect won't simply be consumer pull-back but governments actually pouring money into pet projects locally--it should create an even bigger sucking sound as the last ounce of credit is wrung from the system.
Next in line will be agriculture demanding more subsidized wages as food prices plummet...
As we buy less from abroad, foreigners will follow suit and buy less from us.
The problem is we can't afford to buy from abroad due to the collapse in the velocity of money. We don't have it to spend. Second problem is a deflationary environment is out debt level is fixed and income potential is headed south. Many busts in the pipeline (public and private) waiting to manifest in the coming quarters of 09......
Overproduction+destruction of middle class american industrial jobs=global great depression... Great. Another depressing day thanks to CR. Maybe my SRS will cheer me up today? Come on... Go CRE collapse!!! Oy. Now I feel bad because I take pleasure in the collapse of somebody's business. Also... Good morning everyone!!!
"The Global Economy"..The Us was The Consumer for the World...At this time we have no idea how many Chinese or with out jobs, India has lost millions and expects to loose 10's of millions in the next three months.
Here's hoping O gets it, this is like a 100 year flood, we an't been here before.
Nationalize the Banks before the black hole gets wider and deeper and no amount of stimula can pull us out.
National the Banks before The US taxpayer become hunger and can't be contained.
Nationalize the Banks before Class Warfare becomes a tipping point with the US taxpayer.
Black Star Ranch: same thing here in Cambodia, kids dig in the garbage dump for plastic that is sold to Vietnam and China for recycling... I think the old rate was 200 a ton ... now maybe a 1/4 if you find a buyer.
Family member is legal for A Trading Company and mostly travels to South America...Children his own sons age is beggers on the streets and this would be in the towns visitors were allowed to go.
This summer he plans to take son to show him other Countries problems.
....I think this "global economy" thing is over hyped. A whole lot of moving product world-wide when it would make more sense to have the processors, manufacturers, retailers, and customers all within at least a continent.
Oh wait.....We used to be like that...and then we got lazy & greedy. The US is kinda like my junk yard neighbor. All he has is "old sh** that nobody wants too!
I work in IM/EX stats and the export growth is definitely "deaccelerating" to quote to model gnome who sits next to me. It's maddening to think of all the export sales that fell through while shippers were waiting for available empty containers to reach inland stuffing locations.
I am not Rich and I don't play him on TV, but BofA is less than $11 now, and if there's another bank bailout going on, wouldn't it be likely that it would be a good buy?
According to my mother BAC dividends are still there. She doesn't care that her stock has lost value because her dividends are still the same...
Children his own sons age is beggers on the streets and this would be in the towns visitors were allowed to go.
I went through the favelas in Rio several years ago. It was very depressing. Took a taxi to Corcovado and walked the last 1/4 mile. Ran into a group of children ~10 y/o or younger in rags with a donkey. They weren't begging but gave them some cash anyway. I see much if the same these days in the Caribbean. I work in multiple islands including Dominica several times/year. On Dominica at least you can't starve, Antigua is another story....
Well this is very good news for the official GDP growth figures. I for one have never been a big fan of improved trade deficits caused by lower imports and lower exports, just a bigger reduction in the former. It signals a drastic contraction in world trade. Its sort of like smoot hawley, without the tarriff revenues. Same thing happening in other major markets, most recently announced, Korea, Taiwan and China. Sort of like a fleet of U-boats sinking world shipping around the world.
Thus good on the official numbers, bad in the real world. This just might hold the 4Q GDP decline to under 6%.
this is exactly what needs to happen. less consumption and borrowing from the rest of the world and increased savings at home will help ease the burden of our structural deficits.
unfortunately, any small gains in the trade deficit will be wiped out by the budget deficit, but the bond market should eventually respond to that.
According to my mother BAC dividends are still there. She doesn't care that her stock has lost value because her dividends are still the same... Outsider | 01.13.09 - 10:10 am | #
Obama's latest dividend plan is going to make her weep for her BAC dividend.
(Dow Jones)--The U.S. Treasury Department on Wednesday plans to release the terms by which thousands of smaller financial institutions can apply for funding through the Troubled Asset Relief Program, the man overseeing the effort said Tuesday. Ê In a speech at Georgetown University, Treasury Interim Assistant Secretary for Financial Stability Neel Kashkari said the department has finalized the terms by which S-corporations, which have so far been shut out from the government's capital injection program, could get capital through it. The terms are scheduled to be posted on Treasury's Web site Wednesday, Kashkari said.
Denninger gets a little kooky sometimes. Hyperinflation is NOT dependent on unions as he claims. Not one instance of hyperinflation has occurred in a heavily unionized country.
But hey, why let facts get in the way of an otherwise well reasoned thesis.
On BAC divie, Barney is talking about changing the rules big time for TARPed banks, and doing so retroactively. That Dividend will most likely go away, as it should. I think it is a scandal that any bank taking TARP funds is paying anything other than $0.01 per quarter. Purpose of TARP is to boost bank capital. Fastest way to raise capital, stop giving it back to your shareholders.
Black Star Ranch writes:
An anecdotal experience; my neighbor sells scrap metal to a salvage yard in Vegas for $200+ a ton. The salvage yard used to send/sell it to China. Since my neighbor is only able to get $50. a ton now from the salvager, it sits in his yard. We don't have uses for scrap metal HERE?
Black Star Ranch | 01.13.09 - 9:35 am
Some more anecdotal observations. Scrap dealer near me had trucks, cars, buses, heck anything with wheels that people could load up with scrap, lined up 6 deep waiting to get in and get weighed. This was earlier this year. Now - the occassional truck is in there when I go by. More telling, the piles of scrap have grown to truly impressive size - he used to compact and ship it out almost daily. Me thinks he bought high and got stuck long lots of inventory. No demand...
The TARPed banks may not be paying much of a dividend in the future. They may be allowed to pay a small one -- some "institutions," don't know if they're mental, cannot hold shares that don't pay a dividend.
hat Dividend will most likely go away, as it should. I think it is a scandal that any bank taking TARP funds is paying anything other than $0.01 per quarter. Dirk van Dijk | 01.13.09 - 10:25 am | #
I posted about this earlier.
Even 0.01 is too much.
So what if they get tossed from some Value indices?
"...the government may need to buy or guarantee banks' tainted assets to revive growth." Oh, so banks are what drive the economy. Silly me, I thought it was people. Newsflash -- the people are either broke and unworthy of credit -or- have money they're unwilling to spend. The banks could be loaded with cash -- which, of course, they're not -- and the economy would still be dead.
This is the same as with T-bill yields going down near zero...water level is declining rapidly and everything seems normal. Economic tsunami is coming, head for the hills now!
"Black Star Ranch writes:
An anecdotal experience; my neighbor sells scrap metal to a salvage yard in Vegas for $200+ a ton. The salvage yard used to send/sell it to China. Since my neighbor is only able to get $50. a ton now from the salvager, it sits in his yard. We don't have uses for scrap metal HERE?
Black Star Ranch | 01.13.09 - 9:35 am "
Maybe when gun sales uses up all the excess scrap they will back in business.
Minnesota. Grand Forks, N.D., dropped to a record low of 37 degrees below zero Tuesday morning, lopping six degrees off the old record set in 1979 scary stories | 01.13.09 - 10:27 am | #
Ah, it's nice to be in Southern California. Got up a little after 5am for the morning hike and it was almost too warm to wear my sweats. Damn bright out, too; moon was like a nightlight on steroids.
In a debt binge, GDP more accurately measures the rate at which people are impoverishing themselves rather economic growth.
One of the fed's biggest mistakes was their foolish belief that the "free" market banking system would ensure that the credit growth was productive and sustainable.
Alas, credit growth degenerated into bonus harvesting for bankers and un-payable debts for the majority.
Ah, it's nice to be in Southern California. Got up a little after 5am for the morning hike and it was almost too warm to wear my sweats. Damn bright out, too; moon was like a nightlight on steroids.
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) | 01.13.09 - 10:32 am | #
eh, you're just jealous you don't have the sun reflecting brightly off the brilliant white snow... while wearing your latest winter fashion gear.
CR,
Why do you always emphasize the negative aspect of the news release? Is it hubris,covering your market position and hopefully influence you readers to act such that youn profit or do you really believe we are in a deep recession or depression. Man up or stop this constant theme meme and have a more unbiased approach to financial news analysis.
Speaking of declining oil imports, does home heating oil typically run higher (cost-wise) than unleaded gasoline? I would've thought it was the other way around?
That the trade deficit is declining is good news. But a declining trade aggregate will only hurt our ability to sustain free trade long term. Still, we need to export our way out of this mess long term.
Moose: Here is another point of view, must be equally important, yes?
"There is good evidence that the Earth is only thousands of years old. In BOOKS, see Dr. Ackerman's It's a Young World After All. The "65 million years" is a recent mental invention. Evolution provides a mental hiding place from our powerful Creator. Evolution claims (theologically) that our God is weak or non-existent. Right? Think about what evolution claims about our origins. Dragons (per the previous FAQ answer) were seen and sometimes fought by our ancestors on all inhabited continents. Our ancestors were honest in recording sightings of large dangerous reptilian creatures. They lived concurrent with man. Humans saw dinosaurs. Sure, stories later became embellished, but the germ of truth that humans and dinosaurs (dragons) lived at the same time remains accurate. They lived in different places ... but at the same time - until the dinosaurs were mostly driven to extinction. (There are still a few living dinos out there, by the way.)"
The US Financial Model has broken down...Countries that their econ/financial model was set to export to the US has cliff dived, China being a Communist Country can do "Whatever" overnight, whereas in USA we have to run it by every political dog in DC to get their approval. Lots of Countries are following right along behind what the USA is doing (right/wrong) tokeep from going into The big black hole..Thats the global economy that's been pushed for 25 years in USA.
Being the biggest consumer of exported goods from the world, the world is looking and I think hoping O can pull this out for the world.
It an't gonna happen, but I don't believe NAFTA has been formed on his lips since he has been elected according to lip watchers.
Comrade Bear ... the sun in soouthern Cal not bad but here in Cambodia right now it's perfect... and the nights cool and crisps and the curlicues of pot smoke vision inducing
Thanks for the response to my OT questions to you last night re: Slovakia. I am definitely going to get over there at some point. I still have some distant family over there that I would like to track down. My father remembers/recalls conversations about them and how contact was lost with that side after WWII.
Black Star Ranch writes:
An anecdotal experience; my neighbor sells scrap metal to a salvage yard in Vegas for $200+ a ton. The salvage yard used to send/sell it to China. Since my neighbor is only able to get $50. a ton now from the salvager, it sits in his yard. We don't have uses for scrap metal HERE?
Black Star Ranch | 01.13.09 - 9:35 am | #
I'm sure town/city recyling programs will find it hard to make their programs work
There is most likely STILL overcapacity in the US steel industry. Plus importing scrap is competitive with iron ore (China is an ore importer) at various price points of each.
Outsider, Heating oil is essentially the same thing as deisel, and in recent years Europe has move far in the direction of deisel, thus the netual balance favors higher heating oil than unleaded. Refineries can tweak just a little bit to change the output of heating oil vs. gasoline from a barrel, but tnot that much.
Outsider wrote:
I prefer the term "climate change."
Outsider | 01.13.09 - 10:29 am | #
Yeah, most people who believe in junk science want to change the course of discussion to "oh that is so yesterday" after scamming the world. Seems the computer models used to predict "Planet Gores" temperature and "Income" don't work given the infinite number of variables involved... just like the mark to fantasy economic models that the harvard boys used.
Equity buyers thinking they can see across the credit-collapse valley as well as the emerging commerce-collapse chasm apparently have better long-distance vision than mine, but this morning's indices closing today above current levels will have made 3 higher lows since the Nov bottom, continuing to point towards those gaps at NAZ 1950 and SPY 110, up 20% plus. Unbelievable. Closes below 3 month support down only 3% at NAZ 1500 and SPY 85 should end the bear market rally. End of TA talk.
China, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and many other foreign countries own the most US treasuries by far, since they are now stopping or slowing their purchase this would mean the US is now at the whims of these nations..(recall Fannie & Freddie when we had to nationalize them because so many countries own their agency bonds)
This correction is long overdue..this debt needs to be paid off on all level..Personal, Private, Goverment..and for who have debt it going to be painful.
trotskylives -
let me see if I have this straight - for you, the climate never changes?
Because for the rest of us, climate change is a natural process - and yes, one that is subject to different models when looking forward, but one that is completely uncontroversial when looking at the past.
And if you wish to argue that the current climate change models are flawed, please, be my guest. I certainly enjoy pointing out how flawed the models are. After all, compared to the data currently being recorded, all climate models are far too optimistic, including the ones that are generally thought of as being 'extreme.'
You might be surprised to learn this, but in a lot of places where the climate is handled as an important subject, no one cares about Gore at all. But melting Arctic sea ice dramatically changing the albedo of the sea water? Yes, that does raise some concern - as does the rising sea level indicated by current melt rates of land based ice as recorded by satellite observation. The Dutch, for example, pay real attention to the subject - but then, when much a significant portion of your nation is under sea level, you can't afford junk science.
i used to learn things from the comments on this blog. what a waste of time now, only hecklers.
there are very few people here interested in creating something better for the future. instead here are mostly people who have given up, hoarded food and armed themselves.
they now sit in their bunker with the internet umbilical cord up their ass gloating at how clever they were for seeing the obvious.
Outsider, Heating oil is essentially the same thing as deisel, and in recent years Europe has move far in the direction of deisel, thus the netual balance favors higher heating oil than unleaded. Refineries can tweak just a little bit to change the output of heating oil vs. gasoline from a barrel, but tnot that much. Dirk van Dijk | 01.13.09 - 11:45 am | #
Actually they can't 'tweak' a lot but they can retrofit the plant [change the lay out, add 'crack' & 'reformulation' units] to increase the diesel fraction. But it costs money [capital] and takes time [essentially building another plant within a plant]. I'm sure it is happening as we write this as the premiums are quite attractive.
It is not clear yet whether November was a blip downward in a rising trade deficit or the beginning of a new trend toward smalller US trade deficits.
There are at least four factors operating right now which affect the US trade deficit. Two of them tend to increase the US trade deficit; the other two tend to decrease the deficit:
The stronger dollar tends to increase the trade deficit.
The United States is a major capital goods (i.e., investment goods) exporter, and investment goods tend to be the hardest hit during a depression. This will tend to increase the trade deficit.
A worldwide depression tends to decrease trade overall, reducing both imports and exports. This will tend to decrease the trade deficit.
The falling oil prices reduce the cost of America's energy imports. This will tend to decrease the trade deficit.
With so many factors operating, the direction of the trade deficit (as a percentage of US GDP) is indeterminate. My guess is that the US trade deficit will grow during the depression. The November statistics may have blipped downward due to the build-up of consumer goods inventories. Once consumer goods inventories stabilize, I'm predicting that the stronger dollar and rapidly falling capital-goods exports will cause the US trade deficit to increase.
Lower trade deficit is excellent news. I hope it goes positive soon. I would love nothing more than to cease all imports from China, forever. Collusion with China has destroyed this country.
Time to sky the markets! Swing for the fences, boys!
NVDA 40% to 50% seq. decline now expected (usually seasonally up in the Jan qtr.)
Wow, we really don't produce.
This is the best news of 2009.
The middle-man-import-all-retail-goods-business-model is crumbling. IT'S NOT SUSTAINABLE.
OK, latest update on D.B. Cooper: He's apparently now e-mailed a friend and said he never meant to crash his plane, but ominously fears he'll soon be dead:
Error: Page Not Found - NewsChannel 9 WSYR
Like, maybe he's got Russian mobsters after him or something. Yeah, that's the ticket.
What's our Trade Deficit Czar going to do about this?
I'll tell you who has a trade deficit--the Cubs. They need a closer like nobody's bidness.
Bank failures could reach one a week - Atlanta Business Chronicle:
Bank failures could reach one a week
(FDIC plans to open a new Atlanta office in 90 days.)
After seeing the trillions fly around, the tens of billions don't look so big anymore.
So how long until the reach around effect shows up in exports?
The effect of what, the global economic depression? It's already showing up in exports. They're off sharply.
I think the weekly bank failures will finally make it into the news, just like the glorious 80's--then capitulation wielding a machete finally hacks the market down to size--right-sized.
This will boomerang around soon enough.
As we buy less from abroad, foreigners will follow suit and buy less from us.
A falling tide lowers all boats.
The trade deficit: one of America's all time favorite ways to live: Buying stuff we don't make here any more.
Do we even call it the Current Account Deficit these days or just the Goods and Services Deficit?
Just saw this one
"Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke warned that a fiscal stimulus wont be enough to spur an economic recovery and that the government may need to buy or guarantee banks tainted assets to revive growth."
Translated, stop this silly fiscal thing and give us all your money...
An anecdotal experience; my neighbor sells scrap metal to a salvage yard in Vegas for $200+ a ton. The salvage yard used to send/sell it to China. Since my neighbor is only able to get $50. a ton now from the salvager, it sits in his yard. We don't have uses for scrap metal HERE?
The interesting effect won't simply be consumer pull-back but governments actually pouring money into pet projects locally--it should create an even bigger sucking sound as the last ounce of credit is wrung from the system.
Next in line will be agriculture demanding more subsidized wages as food prices plummet...
As we buy less from abroad, foreigners will follow suit and buy less from us.
The problem is we can't afford to buy from abroad due to the collapse in the velocity of money. We don't have it to spend. Second problem is a deflationary environment is out debt level is fixed and income potential is headed south. Many busts in the pipeline (public and private) waiting to manifest in the coming quarters of 09......
So fewer dollars going abroad as our rollover and new borrowing requirements skyrocket?
Hmmm...
...kinda like: We gotta defeat hunger by eating less?
Biden: New administration committed to withdrawal from Iraq
I can't believe Obama let this happen.
Black Star Ranch writes:
...kinda like: We gotta defeat hunger by eating less?
Well put.
But I believe we are kinda like in the same boat, and hungry, and food is staring back at us hungry, in the same boat.
/gulp
energy,
"So fewer dollars going abroad as our rollover and new borrowing requirements skyrocket?"
Oh pashah! They'll just print it as the inflationists like to point out. No problem...nothing to see here...move along.
Nostrovia,
LOL
Overproduction+destruction of middle class american industrial jobs=global great depression... Great. Another depressing day thanks to CR. Maybe my SRS will cheer me up today? Come on... Go CRE collapse!!! Oy. Now I feel bad because I take pleasure in the collapse of somebody's business. Also... Good morning everyone!!!
B.S. Bernutty speaks...markets catapolt up...works for me.
Nostrovia,
Citi down 9% before open...
I was just noticing a picture printed in the Times... the caption read rocket shrapnel in Beer Sheva, Israel....
- NY Times
notice the pattern! looks like a cluster graph of economic activity in the US... not sure about the rocket part
"We don't have uses for scrap metal HERE?"
Telling.
A falling tide lowers all boats.
Angry Saver | 01.13.09 - 9:31 am
I think in this case it's more apt to say: A rising sandbar grounds all boats.
"The Global Economy"..The Us was The Consumer for the World...At this time we have no idea how many Chinese or with out jobs, India has lost millions and expects to loose 10's of millions in the next three months.
Here's hoping O gets it, this is like a 100 year flood, we an't been here before.
Nationalize the Banks before the black hole gets wider and deeper and no amount of stimula can pull us out.
National the Banks before The US taxpayer become hunger and can't be contained.
Nationalize the Banks before Class Warfare becomes a tipping point with the US taxpayer.
"...kinda like: We gotta defeat hunger by eating less?"
Carried to a logical conclusion that would work. Isn't logic wonderful?
"no amount of stimula "
Classy plural.
Nothing to see here - move along.
Black Star Ranch: same thing here in Cambodia, kids dig in the garbage dump for plastic that is sold to Vietnam and China for recycling... I think the old rate was 200 a ton ... now maybe a 1/4 if you find a buyer.
Citi down 9% before open...
Somewhere, Kondratieff canuk sucks himself.
Bernanke suggests banks will need more help to fix economy - Jan. 13, 2009
Bernanke: More bank bailouts needed
(World's largest ever bank bailout needed and in the works.)
The incredibly shrinking Citigroup - Jan. 13, 2009
Citigroup tumbles again
Shares of the troubled bank fell Tuesday even though Citi confirmed it is talking with Morgan Stanley about a Smith Barney deal.
(Citi down 17% & 7% to exceed 30% total by end of day trades.)
Family member is legal for A Trading Company and mostly travels to South America...Children his own sons age is beggers on the streets and this would be in the towns visitors were allowed to go.
This summer he plans to take son to show him other Countries problems.
Hope we never see it in The USA.
Short Sellers Attack America’s Largest Companies (GE)(PFE)(T)(HAL)(XOM)(INTC)(MSFT)(CSCO)(IBM) – 24/7 Wall St.
Short Sellers Attack America's Largest Companies (GE)(PFE)(T)(HAL)(XOM)(INTC)(MSFT)(CSCO)(IBM)
In the financial sector, short sellers slightly increased their positions in most of the big banks. Shares short in CItigroup (C) rose 5% to 149.1 million.
....I think this "global economy" thing is over hyped. A whole lot of moving product world-wide when it would make more sense to have the processors, manufacturers, retailers, and customers all within at least a continent.
Oh wait.....We used to be like that...and then we got lazy & greedy. The US is kinda like my junk yard neighbor. All he has is "old sh** that nobody wants too!
I work in IM/EX stats and the export growth is definitely "deaccelerating" to quote to model gnome who sits next to me. It's maddening to think of all the export sales that fell through while shippers were waiting for available empty containers to reach inland stuffing locations.
Bernanke: Obama Stimulus Would Lift Economy
they're incorrigible
- NY Times
Banks Lead European Shares Lower
inconceivable!
Denninger-Jesse Death Match. Testy Denninger attacks audience.
The Market Ticker - Entries from January 2009
Jesse's Café Américain
I am not Rich and I don't play him on TV, but BofA is less than $11 now, and if there's another bank bailout going on, wouldn't it be likely that it would be a good buy?
According to my mother BAC dividends are still there. She doesn't care that her stock has lost value because her dividends are still the same...
A rising tide lifts all yachts.
Children his own sons age is beggers on the streets and this would be in the towns visitors were allowed to go.
I went through the favelas in Rio several years ago. It was very depressing. Took a taxi to Corcovado and walked the last 1/4 mile. Ran into a group of children ~10 y/o or younger in rags with a donkey. They weren't begging but gave them some cash anyway. I see much if the same these days in the Caribbean. I work in multiple islands including Dominica several times/year. On Dominica at least you can't starve, Antigua is another story....
got a song for this.no,not trade deficit,bailout. dont know if posted
YouTube - I Want My Bailout Money by Michael Adams the Health Ranger
...DOW's like a 10-year old kid...hoppin' around not knowin' which way to go..
The underlying reason for my bearishness is the current account and uncle Sam's chronic deficits.
This is good news. It may spell pain but who cares.
Well this is very good news for the official GDP growth figures. I for one have never been a big fan of improved trade deficits caused by lower imports and lower exports, just a bigger reduction in the former. It signals a drastic contraction in world trade. Its sort of like smoot hawley, without the tarriff revenues. Same thing happening in other major markets, most recently announced, Korea, Taiwan and China. Sort of like a fleet of U-boats sinking world shipping around the world.
Thus good on the official numbers, bad in the real world. This just might hold the 4Q GDP decline to under 6%.
Black Star Ranch....You are so correct..But as Jas would say I(myself) have raised two born and bred American Dopes.
You have heard the Saying"The Cook can throw more out the backdoor with a spoon than can be thrown in the ffront door with a shovel."
That is what is happening in our Treasury. They are dopes.
this is exactly what needs to happen. less consumption and borrowing from the rest of the world and increased savings at home will help ease the burden of our structural deficits.
unfortunately, any small gains in the trade deficit will be wiped out by the budget deficit, but the bond market should eventually respond to that.
According to my mother BAC dividends are still there. She doesn't care that her stock has lost value because her dividends are still the same...
Outsider | 01.13.09 - 10:10 am | #
Obama's latest dividend plan is going to make her weep for her BAC dividend.
So, the depression is called off?
Krugman : Stimulate and stimulate big!
"Obama's latest dividend plan is going to make her weep for her BAC dividend."
So you're saying she should buy puts?
(Dow Jones)--The U.S. Treasury Department on Wednesday plans to release the terms by which thousands of smaller financial institutions can apply for funding through the Troubled Asset Relief Program, the man overseeing the effort said Tuesday. Ê In a speech at Georgetown University, Treasury Interim Assistant Secretary for Financial Stability Neel Kashkari said the department has finalized the terms by which S-corporations, which have so far been shut out from the government's capital injection program, could get capital through it. The terms are scheduled to be posted on Treasury's Web site Wednesday, Kashkari said.
Denninger gets a little kooky sometimes. Hyperinflation is NOT dependent on unions as he claims. Not one instance of hyperinflation has occurred in a heavily unionized country.
But hey, why let facts get in the way of an otherwise well reasoned thesis.
So you're saying she should buy puts?
j marston | 01.13.09 - 10:17 am | #
I buy Kleenex in bulk.
Just sayi
On BAC divie, Barney is talking about changing the rules big time for TARPed banks, and doing so retroactively. That Dividend will most likely go away, as it should. I think it is a scandal that any bank taking TARP funds is paying anything other than $0.01 per quarter. Purpose of TARP is to boost bank capital. Fastest way to raise capital, stop giving it back to your shareholders.
Black Star Ranch writes:
An anecdotal experience; my neighbor sells scrap metal to a salvage yard in Vegas for $200+ a ton. The salvage yard used to send/sell it to China. Since my neighbor is only able to get $50. a ton now from the salvager, it sits in his yard. We don't have uses for scrap metal HERE?
Black Star Ranch | 01.13.09 - 9:35 am
Some more anecdotal observations. Scrap dealer near me had trucks, cars, buses, heck anything with wheels that people could load up with scrap, lined up 6 deep waiting to get in and get weighed. This was earlier this year. Now - the occassional truck is in there when I go by. More telling, the piles of scrap have grown to truly impressive size - he used to compact and ship it out almost daily. Me thinks he bought high and got stuck long lots of inventory. No demand...
A falling tide lowers all boats.
Angry Saver | 01.13.09 - 9:31 am
I think in this case it's more apt to say: A rising sandbar grounds all boats.
Mook | 01.13.09 - 9:51 am
An unmaintained boat eventually sinks no matter what the tide.
NPR tells me that China having to actually use some of their money to you know... pay for stuff in china so they don't implode will kill the US.
How exactly does any system set up with the idea that China will lend to us ad infinitum not end in implosion anyways?
The TARPed banks may not be paying much of a dividend in the future. They may be allowed to pay a small one -- some "institutions," don't know if they're mental, cannot hold shares that don't pay a dividend.
hat Dividend will most likely go away, as it should. I think it is a scandal that any bank taking TARP funds is paying anything other than $0.01 per quarter.
Dirk van Dijk | 01.13.09 - 10:25 am | #
I posted about this earlier.
Even 0.01 is too much.
So what if they get tossed from some Value indices?
"...the government may need to buy or guarantee banks' tainted assets to revive growth."
Oh, so banks are what drive the economy. Silly me, I thought it was people. Newsflash -- the people are either broke and unworthy of credit -or- have money they're unwilling to spend. The banks could be loaded with cash -- which, of course, they're not -- and the economy would still be dead.
Minnesota. Grand Forks, N.D., dropped to a record low of 37 degrees below zero Tuesday morning, lopping six degrees off the old record set in 1979
Barney is talking about changing the rules big time for TARPed banks, and doing so retroactively.
How likely to get through?
is'nt that where they process CC transactions. Talk about a credit Freeze
This is the same as with T-bill yields going down near zero...water level is declining rapidly and everything seems normal. Economic tsunami is coming, head for the hills now!
scary stories | 01.13.09 - 10:27 am | #
Global warming, Exhibit 1.
I prefer the term "climate change."
"Black Star Ranch writes:
An anecdotal experience; my neighbor sells scrap metal to a salvage yard in Vegas for $200+ a ton. The salvage yard used to send/sell it to China. Since my neighbor is only able to get $50. a ton now from the salvager, it sits in his yard. We don't have uses for scrap metal HERE?
Black Star Ranch | 01.13.09 - 9:35 am "
Maybe when gun sales uses up all the excess scrap they will back in business.
Well looks like I(myself) a small S financial Corp can apply for tarp funds.Right Yehh
-37 degrees? Bet those people would LIKE a little global warmings...
Yeow that's cold.
Does the US export anything in volume to China, Taiwan et. al - except T-bills and bank loans?
Minnesota. Grand Forks, N.D., dropped to a record low of 37 degrees below zero Tuesday morning, lopping six degrees off the old record set in 1979
scary stories | 01.13.09 - 10:27 am | #
Ah, it's nice to be in Southern California. Got up a little after 5am for the morning hike and it was almost too warm to wear my sweats. Damn bright out, too; moon was like a nightlight on steroids.
Dirk vanDijk,
GDP doesn't work for me anymore.
In a debt binge, GDP more accurately measures the rate at which people are impoverishing themselves rather economic growth.
One of the fed's biggest mistakes was their foolish belief that the "free" market banking system would ensure that the credit growth was productive and sustainable.
Alas, credit growth degenerated into bonus harvesting for bankers and un-payable debts for the majority.
But hey, GDP looked good.
\tDoes the US export anything in volume to China, Taiwan et. al - except T-bills and bank loans?
JimPortlandOR | 01.13.09 - 10:31 am | #
Empty shipping containers.
Biden: New administration committed to withdrawal from Iraq.
Right after we withdraw from Sarajevo, Korea, and Germany.
Meet the new war. Just like the old war.
Got peak civilization?
Ah, it's nice to be in Southern California. Got up a little after 5am for the morning hike and it was almost too warm to wear my sweats. Damn bright out, too; moon was like a nightlight on steroids.
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) | 01.13.09 - 10:32 am | #
eh, you're just jealous you don't have the sun reflecting brightly off the brilliant white snow... while wearing your latest winter fashion gear.
From bloomberg
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke warned that a fiscal stimulus wont be enough to spur an economic recovery
it will or it won't . depends on your media source, i guess.
"Empty shipping containers." = Hot Air from LA. Scrap metal and used paper (toilet
? among the top items exported to Asia...
Using TARP money to pay dividends is an absolute disgrace. Worse still is the fact that TARP banks are paying year end bonuses.
GRRRRRR!
Remember, colder temperatures are caused by global warming.
CR,
Why do you always emphasize the negative aspect of the news release? Is it hubris,covering your market position and hopefully influence you readers to act such that youn profit or do you really believe we are in a deep recession or depression. Man up or stop this constant theme meme and have a more unbiased approach to financial news analysis.
Moose, CR lists over a hundred other blog sites if you don't like his take on things.
Hmm.. I thought CR was overly OPTimistic..
goes back and rechecks his notes
Speaking of declining oil imports, does home heating oil typically run higher (cost-wise) than unleaded gasoline? I would've thought it was the other way around?
That the trade deficit is declining is good news. But a declining trade aggregate will only hurt our ability to sustain free trade long term. Still, we need to export our way out of this mess long term.
Moose: Here is another point of view, must be equally important, yes?
"There is good evidence that the Earth is only thousands of years old. In BOOKS, see Dr. Ackerman's It's a Young World After All. The "65 million years" is a recent mental invention. Evolution provides a mental hiding place from our powerful Creator. Evolution claims (theologically) that our God is weak or non-existent. Right? Think about what evolution claims about our origins. Dragons (per the previous FAQ answer) were seen and sometimes fought by our ancestors on all inhabited continents. Our ancestors were honest in recording sightings of large dangerous reptilian creatures. They lived concurrent with man. Humans saw dinosaurs. Sure, stories later became embellished, but the germ of truth that humans and dinosaurs (dragons) lived at the same time remains accurate. They lived in different places ... but at the same time - until the dinosaurs were mostly driven to extinction. (There are still a few living dinos out there, by the way.)"
Source:
www.creationism.org - FAQ
Just go back to your LALALALALA-land if you wanna hear "good news". Or Fox News or CNBC should do the trick also.
How soon till Citi gets the 2 dollar bill treatment...
Still, we need to export our way out of this mess long term
not even plausible. Only way out is debt repudiation. and a one world currency
[Still, we need to export our way out of this mess long term]
We are exporting... US Treasuries.
The US Financial Model has broken down...Countries that their econ/financial model was set to export to the US has cliff dived, China being a Communist Country can do "Whatever" overnight, whereas in USA we have to run it by every political dog in DC to get their approval. Lots of Countries are following right along behind what the USA is doing (right/wrong) tokeep from going into The big black hole..Thats the global economy that's been pushed for 25 years in USA.
Being the biggest consumer of exported goods from the world, the world is looking and I think hoping O can pull this out for the world.
It an't gonna happen, but I don't believe NAFTA has been formed on his lips since he has been elected according to lip watchers.
"We are exporting... US Treasuries."
it's funny because it's true
No dividends? What happens to poor old Warren?
Comrade Bear ... the sun in soouthern Cal not bad but here in Cambodia right now it's perfect... and the nights cool and crisps and the curlicues of pot smoke vision inducing
Stocks that are on lifesupport that should be Zero
C
BAC
MS
GS
GM
F
GE
Pretty much any company that had great than 25% of eps from Finance.
anybody care to add to the list?
FNM, FRE, AIG..
MAL that DB Cooper story... ever wonder why they call us the Hurryin' Hoosiers? there you go...
how could i forget! y
i guess i thought those guys were already relegated to Molokai.
Citi getting the Bear Stearns treatment. Someone get a 2 dollar bill ready. I'm broke
http://www.financialpost.com/726514.bin?size=404x272
anybody care to add to the list?
JPM (the derivatives heavyweight)
I prefer the term "climate change."
I prefer climate. "Change" is redundant.
Name me a single climate that was ever constant.
Got peak civilization?
@ Comrade Janosik ,
Thanks for the response to my OT questions to you last night re: Slovakia. I am definitely going to get over there at some point. I still have some distant family over there that I would like to track down. My father remembers/recalls conversations about them and how contact was lost with that side after WWII.
Black Star Ranch writes:
An anecdotal experience; my neighbor sells scrap metal to a salvage yard in Vegas for $200+ a ton. The salvage yard used to send/sell it to China. Since my neighbor is only able to get $50. a ton now from the salvager, it sits in his yard. We don't have uses for scrap metal HERE?
Black Star Ranch | 01.13.09 - 9:35 am | #
I'm sure town/city recyling programs will find it hard to make their programs work
We don't have uses for scrap metal HERE?
There is most likely STILL overcapacity in the US steel industry. Plus importing scrap is competitive with iron ore (China is an ore importer) at various price points of each.
Pavel Chichikov writes:
"We don't have uses for scrap metal HERE?"
Telling.
Pavel Chichikov | 01.13.09 - 9:50 am | #
Nope, and Japan purchased tons of scrap steel from the US in the years before it invaded Pearl Harbor.
I'm sure town/city recyling programs will find it hard to make their programs work
Rich Jerk | 01.13.09 - 10:58 am |
News stories in my area are that towns are now having to pay to have the recyclables hauled away, instead of making $$ on them.
Big bounce on the US financials.. SKF is now down on the day.. Hmm..
Big bounce on the US financials.. SKF is now down on the day.. Hmm..
Gubbmint Cheese | 01.13.09 - 11:14 am | #
GSE's always do well in the end.
@Brontide
You mean GSE's do well in the taxpayer's end..
Outsider, Heating oil is essentially the same thing as deisel, and in recent years Europe has move far in the direction of deisel, thus the netual balance favors higher heating oil than unleaded. Refineries can tweak just a little bit to change the output of heating oil vs. gasoline from a barrel, but tnot that much.
Outsider wrote:
I prefer the term "climate change."
Outsider | 01.13.09 - 10:29 am | #
Yeah, most people who believe in junk science want to change the course of discussion to "oh that is so yesterday" after scamming the world. Seems the computer models used to predict "Planet Gores" temperature and "Income" don't work given the infinite number of variables involved... just like the mark to fantasy economic models that the harvard boys used.
Equity buyers thinking they can see across the credit-collapse valley as well as the emerging commerce-collapse chasm apparently have better long-distance vision than mine, but this morning's indices closing today above current levels will have made 3 higher lows since the Nov bottom, continuing to point towards those gaps at NAZ 1950 and SPY 110, up 20% plus. Unbelievable. Closes below 3 month support down only 3% at NAZ 1500 and SPY 85 should end the bear market rally. End of TA talk.
China, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and many other foreign countries own the most US treasuries by far, since they are now stopping or slowing their purchase this would mean the US is now at the whims of these nations..(recall Fannie & Freddie when we had to nationalize them because so many countries own their agency bonds)
This correction is long overdue..this debt needs to be paid off on all level..Personal, Private, Goverment..and for who have debt it going to be painful.
trotskylives -
let me see if I have this straight - for you, the climate never changes?
Because for the rest of us, climate change is a natural process - and yes, one that is subject to different models when looking forward, but one that is completely uncontroversial when looking at the past.
And if you wish to argue that the current climate change models are flawed, please, be my guest. I certainly enjoy pointing out how flawed the models are. After all, compared to the data currently being recorded, all climate models are far too optimistic, including the ones that are generally thought of as being 'extreme.'
You might be surprised to learn this, but in a lot of places where the climate is handled as an important subject, no one cares about Gore at all. But melting Arctic sea ice dramatically changing the albedo of the sea water? Yes, that does raise some concern - as does the rising sea level indicated by current melt rates of land based ice as recorded by satellite observation. The Dutch, for example, pay real attention to the subject - but then, when much a significant portion of your nation is under sea level, you can't afford junk science.
Translated, stop this silly fiscal thing and give us all your money...
Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 01.13.09 - 9:32 am | #
LOL! Exactly. Start the bank holiday w/ the Fed!
"We don't have uses for scrap metal HERE?"
Telling.
Pavel Chichikov | 01.13.09 - 9:50 am | #
Sure we do - depends on the price. $200 a ton for scrap is like a million for a small condo - only makes sense in a crazy world.
Stop with the inflation talk unless you can prove it.
Without wages spiraling upwards, there will be no inflation.
Demand is collapsing all around you.
i used to learn things from the comments on this blog. what a waste of time now, only hecklers.
there are very few people here interested in creating something better for the future. instead here are mostly people who have given up, hoarded food and armed themselves.
they now sit in their bunker with the internet umbilical cord up their ass gloating at how clever they were for seeing the obvious.
well surprise! time to get back to work!
stop rubbernecking.
hey lemmings, new thread! new thread!
why don't you do something useful.
this thread was about the trade deficit for christ's sake.
i wish you all would go back to scribbling on the bathroom stalls
Outsider, Heating oil is essentially the same thing as deisel, and in recent years Europe has move far in the direction of deisel, thus the netual balance favors higher heating oil than unleaded. Refineries can tweak just a little bit to change the output of heating oil vs. gasoline from a barrel, but tnot that much.
Dirk van Dijk | 01.13.09 - 11:45 am | #
Actually they can't 'tweak' a lot but they can retrofit the plant [change the lay out, add 'crack' & 'reformulation' units] to increase the diesel fraction. But it costs money [capital] and takes time [essentially building another plant within a plant]. I'm sure it is happening as we write this as the premiums are quite attractive.
It is not clear yet whether November was a blip downward in a rising trade deficit or the beginning of a new trend toward smalller US trade deficits.
There are at least four factors operating right now which affect the US trade deficit. Two of them tend to increase the US trade deficit; the other two tend to decrease the deficit:
With so many factors operating, the direction of the trade deficit (as a percentage of US GDP) is indeterminate. My guess is that the US trade deficit will grow during the depression. The November statistics may have blipped downward due to the build-up of consumer goods inventories. Once consumer goods inventories stabilize, I'm predicting that the stronger dollar and rapidly falling capital-goods exports will cause the US trade deficit to increase.
Howard Richman
Trade And Taxes
Lower trade deficit is excellent news. I hope it goes positive soon. I would love nothing more than to cease all imports from China, forever. Collusion with China has destroyed this country.