With respect to the Companys cash position, at December 31, 2008, the Company had cash and cash equivalents of $436.9 million, compared to $584.3 million at September 30, 2008 and $236.5 million at December 31, 2007. In addition, as of December 31, 2008, the Company had restricted approximately $19.0 million in cash to sufficiently collateralize outstanding letters of credit under the Companys secured revolving credit facility.
Looks to me business is picking up, this was a better quarter. WOW, I'm in Merced, Calif. today wish I had time to drive around check out a few empty tracks.
jo6pac
The race to the bottom continues.
And on a completely OT topic, Bernanke says it's A-OK in the future to have financial firms that are too big to fail, as long as we keep a close eye on them. (This dude will never, ever, learn. Talk about drawing the wrong conclusion...)
Problem :
"Particularly pressing is the need to address the problem of financial institutions that are deemed too big to fail, Mr. Bernanke said. It is unacceptable that large firms that the government is now compelled to support to preserve financial stability were among the greatest risk-takers during the boom period.
Solution :
In the future, he said, financial firms of any type whose failure would pose a systemic risk must accept especially close regulatory scrutiny of their risk-taking. "
Boo hoo for them. They probably sold 100,000 homes to people with no documentation at the peak (many of whom are probably illegal aliens who build the houses). There's too much supply, and a decrease in new home sales is a good thing, esp. since it won't impact domestic workers since they hire illegals for everything.
Friend of mine with a lot of money has decided to buy a house in Natomas, right in front of a levee leak in the Sacramento region. I am trying to convince him that prices will go down further and that Natomas is not the place to buy, but 95k for a house is too tempting for him to pass up, no matter the neighborhood.
They haven't filed for BK because their labor force consists of illegal aliens who do not receive unemployment, and who do not receive benefits. They build houses for 20 cents on the dollar for what they sell them for. I have seen it with my own eyes.
In the future, he said, financial firms of any type whose failure would pose a systemic risk must accept especially close regulatory scrutiny of their risk-taking. "
Result : FAIL
AND SO THE DANCE BEGINS AGAIN. These things that are too big to fail cannot ever be adequately regulated, because they will always capture their regulators. Failing that, they'll be so influential that they'll capture the congress. The ONLY solution is break up anything that gets half big enough to defend itself. It's time the government stopped being outsized and outgunned by the corporations it supposedly regulates.
Re: Bernanke speech I like the "communication" tool that he always mentions. Somebody said that it's like bluffing a hyperinflationary printing spree in order to get people to use their money now. "I'm gonna do a heli drop man, I'm really gonna do it!" "Nah, you're just bluffing." In Japan, people just kept calling the bluff and hanging on to their yen. Most likely the same thing's going to happen here.
Can't imagine anyone buying a home today at any price. What part of "there is no bottom" do these rubes not understand.Bernake should invoke a ban on home sales, to save people from themselves.
They didn't burn too much cash which tells me they are doing the right thing to survive - cutting costs with a meat cleaver. Doesn't bode well for the economy as a whole, but now is every man for himself time.
Hoopajoops, LTD writes:
Friend of mine with a lot of money has decided to buy a house in Natomas, right in front of a levee leak in the Sacramento region. I am trying to convince him that prices will go down further and that Natomas is not the place to buy, but 95k for a house is too tempting for him to pass up, no matter the neighborhood.
Hoopajoops, LTD | Homepage | 01.13.09 - 10:49 am | #
A buddy of mine has his offer accepted on a fixer in Woodland for 100k. It has termites, so he's going to get the price down 10-15k. Natomas is in the flood plain, so it's not a good place to be. With the state being cash-strapped, you can forget about levy repair. I bet that 95% of the houses in Natomas were built by illegals- so it's no wonder that they're worthless. Your buddy is better off buying somewhere where the schools are good. It will help the property values in the long run. Natomas is a rat race and has too many non-English speakers for the schools to be good.
"In particular, credit spreads are much wider and credit markets more dysfunctional in the United States today than was the case during the Japanese experiment with quantitative easing."
The ONLY solution is break up anything that gets half big enough to defend itself. It's time the government stopped being outsized and outgunned by the corporations it supposedly regulates.
I had an offer accepted for a home in Western NY- 72.5k and out the door for 1k in closing costs, including the inspection and title insurance. 1600 sq ft, two stories, built by US citizens in 1908, and has a full, dry basement, good schools, village living. The build quality is amazing. Far better than anything built by illegal aliens in California over the last 10 years. Putting down 25k, borrowing 50k on Mom's home equity, which is currently at 3%. It will be completely paid off in 3-5 years, after which I will save 2-3k per month for retirement. Now that's how you get over foreclosure in Northern California!
For the "old-timers" - what the heck happened to CR's comment list? Yeah, I know it got popular when Tanta died, but...
I recall back when I was active that most of the posters backed opinions with fact. That bashing and name-calling of political leaders was, if not constrained, certainly more erudite (or at least entertaining). Heck, even when I was butting heads with Sebastian he'd toss out WHY he was saying we weren't in a recession. Now, I see 400+ comments a significant majority of which are, well, are not what they used to be.
What happened, and what can I do to help fix it (if it's fixable)?
LOS ANGELES Mike Reilly spent his lifetime chasing the California dream. This year he's going to look for it in Colorado.
With a house purchase near Denver in the works, the 38-year-old engineering contractor plans to move his family 1,200 miles away from his home state's lemon groves, sunshine and beaches. For him, years of rising taxes, dead-end schools, unchecked illegal immigration and clogged traffic have robbed the Golden State of its allure.
Is there something left of the California dream?
"If you are a Hollywood actor," Reilly says, "but not for us."
Why are so many looking for an exit?
Among other things: California's unemployment rate hit 8.4 percent in November, the third-highest in the nation, and it is expected to get worse. A record 236,000 foreclosures are projected for 2008, more than the prior nine years combined, according to research firm MDA DataQuick. Personal income was about flat last year.
With state government facing a $41.6 billion budget hole over 18 months, residents are bracing for higher taxes, cuts in education and postponed tax rebates. A multibillion-dollar plan to remake downtown Los Angeles has stalled, and office vacancy rates there and in San Diego and San Jose surpass the 10.2 percent national average.
I had an offer accepted for a home in Western NY- 72.5k and out the door for 1k in closing costs, including the inspection and title insurance. 1600 sq ft, two stories, built by US citizens in 1908...
B-but! Western NY! SNOW! They have SNOW there! Mankind cannot live without 360 days a year of sunshine and/or fire ants!
Kirk we have become impotent disaster junkies taking pleasure in watching a slow motion train wreck. We are exacting our pound of flesh via schadenfreude because there is so little we as individuals can do to offset the idiocy of the government and our economic overclass. Think of the comments as gallows humor. When things are hopeless, utterly utterly hopeless, glibness and cynicism reign.
i understand the snark, but it is not so much the weather as it is being possibly the crappiest part of the rust belt that makes western ny bad. though the weather and taxes are truly horrible too, of course.
eeny meeny miney mose
who's gonna be left holding CDOs?
eeny meeny miney mees
answer brings economy to it's knees
natomas has the kings though...
I used to hunt pheasant out there...lots of them..then the illegals starting building homes and poof, no more pheasant...
I was coming back from concert at arco one night, in fog as thick as soup, thank god for carrots bcse I happened to see a steer as big as a suv right in middle of road..
Natomas is north highlands with a nice name....stop him at all cost hoop..
Finally, some good news. If these home closings just come to an end, we wont have stories about people getting thrown out on the street.
Regardless of whether its the bank or the borrower who has closed up the house, the result is the same. One less place for another American family to live.
We need more effort to start opening homes and less to stop closing them.
There should be no new home building at all, considering. A moratorium should be enacted, especially for the shit these crooks are building. Juxtapose the building of these homes with your idea for creative destruction. What sense does it make to build new crap when we have surplus old crap?
understand the snark, but it is not so much the weather as it is being possibly the crappiest part of the rust belt that makes western ny bad.
At least it's not the crappiest part of the foreclosed cardboard housing belt.
You know, after 30 years of being insulted by people living the so-called good life in the Sun Belt, watching this California-Nevada-Florida train wreck is really quite sweet. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of snobs.
I use Yahoo Finance page to watch the markets. Its quick, easy, free and updates every few minutes on its own.
One of the guilty pleasures I've had over the past few months is watching the Yahoo Finance headlines try to keep up with the damn see-saw that is the DJIA. Headline will read something like "Stocks rally against Satan's Folly" when in fact, the damn thing dropped 100 points in the past 10 minutes. Headline attempts to correct itself a half hour later only to see a 150 point swing in the plus direction.
Today's headline is:
"Stocks Fluctuate on Anxiety Over Corporate Profits"
"Bernake should invoke a ban on home sales, to save people from themselves."
Hangtown | 01.13.09 - 10:53 am | #
I have been looking here in SW Florida. The home I looked at yesterday...3/2/2,30 years old never updated was really rough inside but livable. Needs 20-30k for upgrades/repairs if you do the work yourself. If you contract 40-60k.
Ask was 40k,realistic price will be close to 20k.
I can right now buy a new home in the same general area for 80k complete. These are pretty comparable homes option wise.
Why would someone who doesn't have the skillset to fix a house even think used when you can get a new one for the same price?
The nice,no repair needed homes are still suffering from peak pricing and not selling...Welllll over 80k for a 20 year old place.
I lived in the Sacramento area for a few years and am acquainted with Natomas.Buying a home to hold there is unwise to say the least.The Levee system in the Delta is in substantially worse shape than the Levees's in New Orleans were before Katrina and it affects a lot more than just Natomas.
I've heard from several commentators here who are knowledgeable about the home building industry that Californian homes of recent vintage are built by shoddy illegal labor and won't last. Does anyone have any knowledge about local conditions in south Florida? I'm a little worried for my parents as they own a home built in 2000 down near Ft. Lauderdale. Is it a vain hope that homes dictated by code to weather hurricanes are built sturdier and better?
uh, the snobs don't live out in riverside/sb/kings county. trust me, we coastal types find the heat and smog of the central valley as disturbing as the slush and humidity of the northeast.
but at least they grow food out in the central valley, enough to feed india. western ny doesn't produce anything except memories of former manufacturing glories.
Some of us like snow. And hate the sprawl and congestion we see in formerly booming states like CA, NV, FL, AZ - in fact in most of the good ol' USA. In the end, it may be only the cold, slow-growing, fiscally conservative states that come out of this mess in half-decent shape.
most of the bastards who got us into this call stamford or the UE side home - are they true american heroes because of the month or two of snow they get?
"Is it a vain hope that homes dictated by code to weather hurricanes are built sturdier and better?"
I can haz bailouts? | 01.13.09 -
2000 is pre runup so as long as its CBC(concrete block) I wouldn't worry much. I am not a fan of wood framing in Florida. I will not even look at a place that has it...
I agree with you Kirk Spencer,
I've been on CR for over a year and a half. And it is likely I will stop reading the comments. The comments have degenerated to people putting out useless information and rants. (there are still good comments, but the size of the comments 400+ is just to large to find them in)
ohh well it was fun and educational while it lasted.
Ah, Beazer. Anyone remember the fraud case filed in Charlotte against them Spring 2007? Wonder how that's going...
...[n]ow, a multiagency investigation of Beazer Homes is approaching two years without resolution, prompting the Tingleys -- and at least two lawmakers -- to wonder what's taking so long.
I guess "a lot of money" is relative, but there are many nicer neighborhoods in Sacramento. Unless he has a job at the airport, he should be able to find a decent house with the same or better commute as he would have in Natomas, plus he would have much better downward protection/appreciation potential for a future resale.
If it is just that he has $95k burning a hole, then he should lease. Probably come out ahead versus buying in Natomas right now.
At this point of the economic collapse, the losses and risk have moved from individual companies collapsing to countries and government collapsing.
Bear that in mind when trying to short via SRS or SKF.
I personally don't think there's much money left (to be made) in those 2.
It's pretty much a given that the world govt already chosen that either the markets are stabilized, or they will go down in flames WITH the collapse.
This translates to:
SRS, SKF no gains, even if situation worsens. And ultimately, either the situation does get better, which means SRS and SKF starts bleeding; or the govt collapses in a ball of flame, which means SRS/SKF isn't your worry at that time.
Denninger called it this morning. If you really believe Mad Max is the inevitable outcome, you'd be doing something more productive than browsing blogs. Therefore, you don't buy your own BS and are just doom-mongering. Or doing your thing for neo-Soviet PsyOps, I am increasingly beginning to suspect.
SRS, SKF no gains, even if situation worsens. And ultimately, either the situation does get better, which means SRS and SKF starts bleeding; or the govt collapses in a ball of flame, which means SRS/SKF isn't your worry at that time.
I've got a good chunk of SRS. If it never goes up and the economy gets better, life is very good for me.
If the economy crashes, I get to say I was right and have something to think about while I garden and hunt.
It is win win. Or I could just have it sit in cash. But that is pretty boring.
"The fingerlakes region in Western NY is a pretty sweet place to live. "
there are some beautiful parts of greater new england, and if you love the seasons and don't need a particularly jumping job base, it could well be paradise.
but at least they grow food out in the central valley, enough to feed india.
If you call that "food." Ever had a California "strawberry"? Two millimeters of berry surrounding a pound of white core. You can keep it. And the salmonella tainted iceberg lettuce that costs too much to transport.
WNY is the 2nd biggest apple producer in the country. When California's water runs out, WNY will have plenty.
And when global warming fries Napa, WNY will have the country's premier wine district (the Finger Lakes) as well.
As for the taxes, they're very high, but at least the money isn't being given totally hand over fist to CRE developers. Other states around the U.S. are paying for their "low taxes" right now. Not so great, is it.
There's a lot of conventional wisdom about "the good life" that needs to be rethought.
Indeed. My neighbor recently bought land there and plans to do just that. I'd probably be there already but my wife isn't too keen on living in the woods.
You are correct that there are no jobs. But I don't think there are jobs in the rust belt either and I have no desire to live in Indiana. I've worked there. Nice people. Not much scenery.
I am not saying that they will follow your advice or that the person(s) will move the information up the food chain, however, it's better than masturbation...
Give it a shot...I have already entered this website as a sounding board to their ideas...
If you call that "food." Ever had a California "strawberry"? Two millimeters of berry surrounding a pound of white core. You can keep it. And the salmonella tainted iceberg lettuce that costs too much to transport.
Is that what we export to other states? Yeesh, sorry about that. The stuff I get at farmers markets around here is delicious. There's a lot of fruits and vegetables I didn't really like until I started passing up the supermarket and going to the farmers market.
cd, wow, you beat me to my comments. Eastern wa and parts of oregon are now the new napa. New York growing areas are not far behind though, but so far inferior.
Kirk Spencer said: "...What happened, and what can I do to help fix it (if it's fixable)?"
Interesting observation and question.
A theory: The serious debate here ended when the NBER declared the recession.
Poster "I can haz bailouts?" said: "...Kirk we have become impotent disaster junkies taking pleasure in watching a slow motion train wreck..."
With nothing to debate any more, since the recession/not recession issue and all its implications has been resolved, the "disaster junkies" now dominate.
I would guess that this will last until some evidence of recession's end starts to show up. The more clever and farsighted among us will see the signs of a turnaround, they'll get into arguments with the "disaster junkies" and things will get interesting again.
Why would someone who doesn't have the skillset to fix a house even think used when you can get a new one for the same price?
The nice,no repair needed homes are still suffering from peak pricing and not selling...Welllll over 80k for a 20 year old place.
Chris
Cobradriver | 01.13.09 - 11:17 am | #
don't know about 30 year old but I certainly think that a 50 year old home fixed up is worth more than the comparable amount spent on a new home e.g. plaster versus sheetrock. The quality of materials was just better 50 years ago.
and do add insult to injury, Madoff remains in his 7 million NYC penthouse.
Judge Allows Madoff to Stay Free on Bail 01/12/09 - 12:47 PM EST
NEW YORK -- A judge allowed disgraced money manager Bernard Madoff to remain free on bail Monday, rejecting an attempt by prosecutors to send him to jail for mailing more than $1 million in jewelry to family and friends over the holidays.
The decision is sure to outrage investors who have been clamoring for Madoff to be sent to jail for allegedly carrying out the largest financial fraud in history.
Prosecutors said the gifts were grounds to have his bail revoked because what's left of Madoff's assets will have to be returned to burned investors.
Western NY a paradise? Folks, it almost seems we have a realturd peddling more real estate garbage on this blog. All of NY is in a secular economic decline and has been for 30 years. You will get property taxed to death, there is no work and real estate prices are still grossly overstated. Worse yet, there is 6 months of HARD winter.
Anyone who says $70k is a bargain on a 100 year old house in a place where the work is a choice between a Walmart and a diner and the weather is what it is is LYING.
50 years ago???
I doubt there are more than a few thousand homes in our county over 50. Heck the roads were paved 40 years ago and the county is still less than 30% developed...
The CBC construction here is pretty good. They pour a 12" solid concrete ring on top of the block and the roof is tied to it. Pretty much anything since Andrew that isn't wood is good constuction...
"It's time the government stopped being outsized and outgunned by the corporations it supposedly regulates."
Yes...Too big to fail is too big. Too interconnected to fail is also too interconnected. Too leveraged to fail is too leveraged. We need to get and keep the bankers out of our pockets. They are only money distributors after all. How much of this is incompetence and how much is corruption? All the confusion reeks of a high class shell game.
I can haz bailouts? writes:
What is concrete block? I'm not familiar with home building terminology. The exterior of the house is stucco, im not sure what is underneath.
Concrete block is a structural component. If you have a basement, the walls are 99% of the time concrete. The builder has two choices: a) assemble forms and call for the concrete truck to pour into the forms. This is called a 'poured' foundation. the alternative is b) build the walls with concrete blocks. Blocks are cheaper than a pour, but more labour is involved. I personally prefer the poured wall - just my preference...
Often you will not realize the basement is made of blocks (based on exterior view), because the blocks are covered over (above grade) with a thin coat of finish cement to make the appearance look better. This is called 'parging' (cement)
Steel Workers : screw 'em. Ship their jobs overseas.
Ag Workers : screw 'em. migrants from Mexico will do for less.
Tech Workers : screw 'em. Import some H-1B guest to replace them.
Bank Managers: Oh no! We have to save them!
In the Irish Times article, I found this some apt advice to our own fearless leaders.
The goal is to avoid the continued operation of an undercapitalised, error-prone bank with a flawed business model and administrative practices, a problematic customer base and a compromised management facing distorted incentives, the paper stated.
Gee, sounds like Citibank and Goldman Sachs does it not?
Down here in Swampland,USA,there are no basements. The walls are all concrete block for durability. I am not a fan of wood framing in termite country..
NYer writes:
Gee, I'm just resident engineer for the largest civil firm on the planet and a certified trainer for ACI so what could I possibly know.
I have no idea what you know, but its obvious nothing much about residential construction. Concrete walls that are built using forms on site are called 'poured' walls. Concrete elements made in factories are called precast elements.
Great, now i'm in a pissing match with a youngster who thinks he knows something. Comical. I'm a retired builder/developer with 25 years of experience in the field. You?
Thats interesting. ACI nor CSI refers to cast in place concrete as "poured" in any of their publications. But we know how complicated building shacks is so you're right... building houses is different.
Actually there is good news here ( unless of course you are slighty weird and bad news = good news )
and its the fact that housing demand is expanding ( via population increase ) and supply contracting ( less production of new homes)
So oversupply of homes will decline
Get it ?
A question---Has low wages in America been responsible for poor economy--too broke to spend ?
NYer writes:
Thats interesting. ACI nor CSI refers to cast in place concrete as "poured" in any of their publications. But we know how complicated building shacks is so you're right... building houses is different.
Great, so you learned something today. Leave it at that.
CC can save up to 50% in labor costs due to 80% faster 'pouring' and reduced wear and tear on formwork.
Installation
Pervious is installed by being 'poured' into forms, then screeded off, to level (not smooth) the surface, then packed or tamped into place. Due to the low water content and air permeability, within 5-15 minuets of tamping, the concrete must be covered with a 6-mil poly plastic, or it will dry out prematurely and not properly hydrate and cure.
Not to labour the point on blocks verses a poured wall, BUT, using blocks, it is not possible to do a radius wall (curve). I used to really enjoy building radius walls (they are fun), and they can only be done with forms. Normally i would use 2 layers of 1/4" plywood, because the 1/4" bends so nicely.
What strength concrete do you recommend in "poured" walls and what admixtures to you recommend? What do you suggest for reinforcing and what schedule of reinforcing? Please note if you use temperature bars.
NYer writes:
What strength concrete do you recommend in "poured" walls and what admixtures to you recommend?
The standard here is 18 to 20 MPa in footings, and higher (say 25 MPa) for a better finish in the walls. That assumes two pours, usually i would just do the footings and walls in one pour. (not too many do it this way).
Its customary (here) to use 2 runs of 5/8th rebar in the footings, and 1/2" rebar in the walls, tied on 18" centers.
First off, I grew up in NY winters, and I prefer snow over the rain that you get in CA winters.
Yes, the taxes are high, but at least the schools are good and the majority of the students speak English, and their parents speak English. Enough said.
The high property taxes keep the home prices reasonable and stable, which is why NY is probably the best place to be right now. CA is falling off a cliff in terms of tax revenue. WNY is one of the top 5 areas for riding out a recession (because it can't get much worse here).
Western NY is not all rust belt...but the only reason why industry is "rusting" is because of greedy outsourcing of jobs that once paid living wages. Still, the cost of living here is relatively low compared to most areas of the country (except for taxes and gasoline).
It's also beautiful in the summer and fall. Nor Cal valley living was too hot to do anything in the summer. The air quality was terrible too.
It's a nice mix of Americans too. It's weird, but I swear that the women from WNY are more attractive than other places in the country.
Lastly, they don't lend money to illegal aliens here.
The thing that I like the least about NY is the strict handgun control here.
Thomas G writes:
Finally, some good news. If these home closings just come to an end, we wont have stories about people getting thrown out on the street.
Regardless of whether its the bank or the borrower who has closed up the house, the result is the same. One less place for another American family to live.
We need more effort to start opening homes and less to stop closing them.
Thomas G | 01.13.09 - 11:14 am | #
Perhaps we really need better schools and ethics so we never have to deal with fools who buy homes they can't afford. You sound like a communist.
NYer I also learned a few tricks over the years. One is to soak the forms good with water before the pour, it stops the forms from accelerating the curing period. Another favourite was that i would often (on custom homes) order 3/4" for the job (expensive), use the 3/4" on the poured walls, and then re-use it on the flooring. Its a bit tricky this one, but it makes the walls very damn straight, as 3/4" is VERY strong. But you need to have enough floor area and concrete wall area to make it practical. Also you lose the benefit of T&G on the floor, but its stronger. (i like that).
I always over-braced my forms to the hilt. You could land a helicopter on my forming work and it wouldn't budge an 1/8th". If you are ever supervising such a job, watch for poor bracing - its common.
NYer writes:
What schedule bar? What admixtures? Temperature bars? Horizontals? Corners?
I just told you both - what is it you didn't understand? Are you just trying to prove you know something? Its not working...
On the corners, we bend the steel on the job OR order pre bent corners and tie them in. Why don't you just visit a residential job site sometime (and don't where a white hat)
I can haz bailouts? writes:
What is concrete block? I'm not familiar with home building terminology. The exterior of the house is stucco, im not sure what is underneath.
I can haz bailouts? | 01.13.09 - 11:29 am | #
Which is why so many dopes bought cardboard boxes in CA, FL and NV.
AS i said above: READ:
The standard here is 18 to 20 MPa in footings, and higher (say 25 MPa) for a better finish in the walls. That assumes two pours, usually i would just do the footings and walls in one pour. (not too many do it this way).
Its customary (here) to use 2 runs of 5/8th rebar in the footings, and 1/2" rebar in the walls, tied on 18" centers.
Means Vert AND Horz 18"
This is getting silly now... moving to a new thread...
NY, you sound more like a spec writer rather than someone who actually does any work. What do your superintendants call it when the concrete comes out of the truck? Casting? Really?
Of course, most concrete seems to be pumped lately rather than poured.
I love Denninger's Blog post today. I must say, this guy is the consistently hardest hitting poster anywhere. I have a vision of him standing at the bottom of a huge castle wall...maybe Bastille is a better word, and ponding on it with a 8lb sledge hammer, furiously slamming it hard while screaming at the untouchable occupants inside, and desperately yelling over his shoulder every third blow to the silent crowd of onlookers behind to help him break through. I hope he makes it.
Ahh... a concrete guy. Hello SuperP. Most will say "pour" but as you already know, concrete is a solid and requires just enough water to hydrate portland and roughly double that amount to make it plastic. The expression "pour concrete" is (poor)(form), pun intended. To place or cast is accurate and professional. No I don't write CSI spec but read and enforce much of it.
OneAegis wrote:
On one hand, I believe that the US has too long ignored investing in itself - long term projects that benefit all that use them. Highways, bridges and energy transmission all fall into this category.
Yet after an unprecedented rise in housing prices, a whole economy was predicated upon clouds. A huge amount of the rise in consumer spending was driven by their job building overpriced houses, selling overpriced houses or taking equity out of their overpriced houses. So at what point do you say, "We should not spend out way out of these problems, it is a valid market correction."
I would love to see an analysis done of US median income growth over the past 10 years, with adjustments made to construction and real estate related income, bringing them in line with historical norms. By adjusting that number down (substantially, I would imagine) there will be a much clearer view of how much of the economy was fueled by spending on home equity, either directly (HELOC) or indirectly (perceived value of home drives credit card spending, etc.) I believe it would be found that a large majority of the "growth" in this period could be attributed to equity spending, which is why it is so dangerous to be using stimulus as an attempt to return to the status quo.
Sorry for the rant here, and due to the minuscule comment box its hard to review to see if it all comes together and make sense. It is a qualitative premise to be sure, but one that comes from a field level view of the industry over the past 7 years.
They sold one instead of two...
2nd!
Maybe they should have a buy one get one free offer?
Amazing that none of the major homebuilders has filed BK yet.
Press release link broken?
ope, never mind.
Don't worry. Nobel prize-winning economist Dr. Paul Krugman (PBUH) will think of something.
El Cliffo --
That's Professor Krugman to you, buddy.
With respect to the Companys cash position, at December 31, 2008, the Company had cash and cash equivalents of $436.9 million, compared to $584.3 million at September 30, 2008 and $236.5 million at December 31, 2007. In addition, as of December 31, 2008, the Company had restricted approximately $19.0 million in cash to sufficiently collateralize outstanding letters of credit under the Companys secured revolving credit facility.
And he's not just a professor, but a blogger, too!
This is an important speech that Bernanke delivered today.
FRB: Speech--Bernanke, The Crisis and the Policy Response--January 13, 2009
A man's home is his hassle.
Looks to me business is picking up, this was a better quarter. WOW, I'm in Merced, Calif. today wish I had time to drive around check out a few empty tracks.
jo6pac
The race to the bottom continues.
Amazing that none of the major homebuilders has filed BK yet.
Mark to myth is a beautiful thing. So is debt forbearance. Banks can't pressure the home builders without further damaging their own balance sheets.
It's another win-win, symbiotic, synergistic sham..
Me thinks this will leave a mark.....
Warning that house prices may fall by 80% - The Irish Times - Tue, Jan 13, 2009
And on a completely OT topic, Bernanke says it's A-OK in the future to have financial firms that are too big to fail, as long as we keep a close eye on them. (This dude will never, ever, learn. Talk about drawing the wrong conclusion...)
Problem :
"Particularly pressing is the need to address the problem of financial institutions that are deemed too big to fail, Mr. Bernanke said. It is unacceptable that large firms that the government is now compelled to support to preserve financial stability were among the greatest risk-takers during the boom period.
Solution :
In the future, he said, financial firms of any type whose failure would pose a systemic risk must accept especially close regulatory scrutiny of their risk-taking. "
Result : FAIL
Stimulus Alone Won't End Crisis, Bernanke Says - NY Times
Boo hoo for them. They probably sold 100,000 homes to people with no documentation at the peak (many of whom are probably illegal aliens who build the houses). There's too much supply, and a decrease in new home sales is a good thing, esp. since it won't impact domestic workers since they hire illegals for everything.
Jobs that American's won't do. Gimme a break.
Friend of mine with a lot of money has decided to buy a house in Natomas, right in front of a levee leak in the Sacramento region. I am trying to convince him that prices will go down further and that Natomas is not the place to buy, but 95k for a house is too tempting for him to pass up, no matter the neighborhood.
They haven't filed for BK because their labor force consists of illegal aliens who do not receive unemployment, and who do not receive benefits. They build houses for 20 cents on the dollar for what they sell them for. I have seen it with my own eyes.
Cardboard Box Homes go for only $800, and come with a free refrigerator.
Best Buy is selling them, natch.
In the future, he said, financial firms of any type whose failure would pose a systemic risk must accept especially close regulatory scrutiny of their risk-taking. "
Result : FAIL
AND SO THE DANCE BEGINS AGAIN. These things that are too big to fail cannot ever be adequately regulated, because they will always capture their regulators. Failing that, they'll be so influential that they'll capture the congress. The ONLY solution is break up anything that gets half big enough to defend itself. It's time the government stopped being outsized and outgunned by the corporations it supposedly regulates.
Re: Bernanke speech
I like the "communication" tool that he always mentions. Somebody said that it's like bluffing a hyperinflationary printing spree in order to get people to use their money now. "I'm gonna do a heli drop man, I'm really gonna do it!" "Nah, you're just bluffing." In Japan, people just kept calling the bluff and hanging on to their yen. Most likely the same thing's going to happen here.
Beazer is one home builder I would like to see go away.
Can't imagine anyone buying a home today at any price. What part of "there is no bottom" do these rubes not understand.Bernake should invoke a ban on home sales, to save people from themselves.
They didn't burn too much cash which tells me they are doing the right thing to survive - cutting costs with a meat cleaver. Doesn't bode well for the economy as a whole, but now is every man for himself time.
There are no libertarians in foxholes.
Hoopajoops, LTD writes:
Friend of mine with a lot of money has decided to buy a house in Natomas, right in front of a levee leak in the Sacramento region. I am trying to convince him that prices will go down further and that Natomas is not the place to buy, but 95k for a house is too tempting for him to pass up, no matter the neighborhood.
Hoopajoops, LTD | Homepage | 01.13.09 - 10:49 am | #
A buddy of mine has his offer accepted on a fixer in Woodland for 100k. It has termites, so he's going to get the price down 10-15k. Natomas is in the flood plain, so it's not a good place to be. With the state being cash-strapped, you can forget about levy repair. I bet that 95% of the houses in Natomas were built by illegals- so it's no wonder that they're worthless. Your buddy is better off buying somewhere where the schools are good. It will help the property values in the long run. Natomas is a rat race and has too many non-English speakers for the schools to be good.
I would personally like to see Richmond-American Homes disappear from existence as well. Fucking illegal alien employers.
The cancellation rate for the first quarter was 45.6%, compared to 46.6% for the same period in the prior year. It just keeps getting worse ...
Hey- that's a 1% decrease in cancellations. Things are getting better!!!!
Now is a great time to buy and demolish a Beazer home.
Little gem from the Fed's speech:
"In particular, credit spreads are much wider and credit markets more dysfunctional in the United States today than was the case during the Japanese experiment with quantitative easing."
The ONLY solution is break up anything that gets half big enough to defend itself. It's time the government stopped being outsized and outgunned by the corporations it supposedly regulates.
Theme music:
YouTube -
20+ comments in and nobody's dropped the "where's our Percentage Czar?" ref yet?
Citi is flirting with a 4 handle again despite two rounds og government bailouts. WTF! What an embarrassment.
They should change the name Citi to Village or Hamlet.
I had an offer accepted for a home in Western NY- 72.5k and out the door for 1k in closing costs, including the inspection and title insurance. 1600 sq ft, two stories, built by US citizens in 1908, and has a full, dry basement, good schools, village living. The build quality is amazing. Far better than anything built by illegal aliens in California over the last 10 years. Putting down 25k, borrowing 50k on Mom's home equity, which is currently at 3%. It will be completely paid off in 3-5 years, after which I will save 2-3k per month for retirement. Now that's how you get over foreclosure in Northern California!
Shnaps writes:
Now is a great time to buy and demolish a Beazer home.
Shnaps | Homepage | 01.13.09 - 10:58 am | #
LMAO! I would like to see it being built, raided by INS, and then demolished by angry US citizens for "Jobs they won't do".
"Citi is flirting with a 4 handle again despite two rounds og government bailouts. WTF! What an embarrassment.
They should change the name Citi to Village or Hamlet."
Like I said a thread down, how long until Citi gets the 2 dollar bill treatment...
There is nothing going on in Natomas.... nothing! It'll be Gang Land soon.
For the "old-timers" - what the heck happened to CR's comment list? Yeah, I know it got popular when Tanta died, but...
I recall back when I was active that most of the posters backed opinions with fact. That bashing and name-calling of political leaders was, if not constrained, certainly more erudite (or at least entertaining). Heck, even when I was butting heads with Sebastian he'd toss out WHY he was saying we weren't in a recession. Now, I see 400+ comments a significant majority of which are, well, are not what they used to be.
What happened, and what can I do to help fix it (if it's fixable)?
It will be completely paid off in 3-5 years, after which I will save 2-3k per month for retirement.
Now that sounds like a winning strategy!
Bye Bye California dream
LOS ANGELES Mike Reilly spent his lifetime chasing the California dream. This year he's going to look for it in Colorado.
With a house purchase near Denver in the works, the 38-year-old engineering contractor plans to move his family 1,200 miles away from his home state's lemon groves, sunshine and beaches. For him, years of rising taxes, dead-end schools, unchecked illegal immigration and clogged traffic have robbed the Golden State of its allure.
Is there something left of the California dream?
"If you are a Hollywood actor," Reilly says, "but not for us."
Why are so many looking for an exit?
Among other things: California's unemployment rate hit 8.4 percent in November, the third-highest in the nation, and it is expected to get worse. A record 236,000 foreclosures are projected for 2008, more than the prior nine years combined, according to research firm MDA DataQuick. Personal income was about flat last year.
With state government facing a $41.6 billion budget hole over 18 months, residents are bracing for higher taxes, cuts in education and postponed tax rebates. A multibillion-dollar plan to remake downtown Los Angeles has stalled, and office vacancy rates there and in San Diego and San Jose surpass the 10.2 percent national average.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
I had an offer accepted for a home in Western NY- 72.5k and out the door for 1k in closing costs, including the inspection and title insurance. 1600 sq ft, two stories, built by US citizens in 1908...
B-but! Western NY! SNOW! They have SNOW there! Mankind cannot live without 360 days a year of sunshine and/or fire ants!
born and bred inflationista dope dispatch -
bought a tiny bit of djp this morning. meant to buy some dba, but that's on the list if it weakens.
Kirk we have become impotent disaster junkies taking pleasure in watching a slow motion train wreck. We are exacting our pound of flesh via schadenfreude because there is so little we as individuals can do to offset the idiocy of the government and our economic overclass. Think of the comments as gallows humor. When things are hopeless, utterly utterly hopeless, glibness and cynicism reign.
"Western NY! SNOW!"
i understand the snark, but it is not so much the weather as it is being possibly the crappiest part of the rust belt that makes western ny bad. though the weather and taxes are truly horrible too, of course.
They should change the name Citi to Village or Hamlet."
How about Dorf or Townie?
eeny meeny miney mose
who's gonna be left holding CDOs?
eeny meeny miney mees
answer brings economy to it's knees
natomas has the kings though...
I used to hunt pheasant out there...lots of them..then the illegals starting building homes and poof, no more pheasant...
I was coming back from concert at arco one night, in fog as thick as soup, thank god for carrots bcse I happened to see a steer as big as a suv right in middle of road..
Natomas is north highlands with a nice name....stop him at all cost hoop..
Finally, some good news. If these home closings just come to an end, we wont have stories about people getting thrown out on the street.
Regardless of whether its the bank or the borrower who has closed up the house, the result is the same. One less place for another American family to live.
We need more effort to start opening homes and less to stop closing them.
There should be no new home building at all, considering. A moratorium should be enacted, especially for the shit these crooks are building. Juxtapose the building of these homes with your idea for creative destruction. What sense does it make to build new crap when we have surplus old crap?
understand the snark, but it is not so much the weather as it is being possibly the crappiest part of the rust belt that makes western ny bad.
At least it's not the crappiest part of the foreclosed cardboard housing belt.
You know, after 30 years of being insulted by people living the so-called good life in the Sun Belt, watching this California-Nevada-Florida train wreck is really quite sweet. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of snobs.
That Beazer actually sold anything is good news, right?
Knife catchers never fail to amaze me...
Bad news. 401(K) determined to be devised and operated by Madoff. The sheep may be getting a clue....
Do 401(k) plans still make sense? - MSN Money
I use Yahoo Finance page to watch the markets. Its quick, easy, free and updates every few minutes on its own.
One of the guilty pleasures I've had over the past few months is watching the Yahoo Finance headlines try to keep up with the damn see-saw that is the DJIA. Headline will read something like "Stocks rally against Satan's Folly" when in fact, the damn thing dropped 100 points in the past 10 minutes. Headline attempts to correct itself a half hour later only to see a 150 point swing in the plus direction.
Today's headline is:
"Stocks Fluctuate on Anxiety Over Corporate Profits"
That is all.
"Bernake should invoke a ban on home sales, to save people from themselves."
Hangtown | 01.13.09 - 10:53 am | #
I have been looking here in SW Florida. The home I looked at yesterday...3/2/2,30 years old never updated was really rough inside but livable. Needs 20-30k for upgrades/repairs if you do the work yourself. If you contract 40-60k.
Ask was 40k,realistic price will be close to 20k.
I can right now buy a new home in the same general area for 80k complete. These are pretty comparable homes option wise.
Why would someone who doesn't have the skillset to fix a house even think used when you can get a new one for the same price?
The nice,no repair needed homes are still suffering from peak pricing and not selling...Welllll over 80k for a 20 year old place.
Chris
I lived in the Sacramento area for a few years and am acquainted with Natomas.Buying a home to hold there is unwise to say the least.The Levee system in the Delta is in substantially worse shape than the Levees's in New Orleans were before Katrina and it affects a lot more than just Natomas.
I've heard from several commentators here who are knowledgeable about the home building industry that Californian homes of recent vintage are built by shoddy illegal labor and won't last. Does anyone have any knowledge about local conditions in south Florida? I'm a little worried for my parents as they own a home built in 2000 down near Ft. Lauderdale. Is it a vain hope that homes dictated by code to weather hurricanes are built sturdier and better?
"Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of snobs."
uh, the snobs don't live out in riverside/sb/kings county. trust me, we coastal types find the heat and smog of the central valley as disturbing as the slush and humidity of the northeast.
but at least they grow food out in the central valley, enough to feed india. western ny doesn't produce anything except memories of former manufacturing glories.
C'mon, CR. It is time to 'man up' and say, 'I was wrong, and The Greater Depression is now underway.'
-- Risk premium (Moody's Baa-Aaa) has risen to over 3%; last time it did that was summer of '31.
-- Population adjusted foreclosure rate is already greater than that seen during peak of the Lesser Depression.
-- Household debt to GDP is 1.5X what it was in '29.
-- Shiller said real home prices have dropped twice what they did in the Lesser Depression.
Be like Obama, sir, and show some 'flexibility' in the face of unflattering facts.
Some of us like snow. And hate the sprawl and congestion we see in formerly booming states like CA, NV, FL, AZ - in fact in most of the good ol' USA. In the end, it may be only the cold, slow-growing, fiscally conservative states that come out of this mess in half-decent shape.
"fiscally conservative states"
most of the bastards who got us into this call stamford or the UE side home - are they true american heroes because of the month or two of snow they get?
"Is it a vain hope that homes dictated by code to weather hurricanes are built sturdier and better?"
You mean are they built sturdier and better than homes dictated by code to withstand large and sudden movements of the earth's crust?
Mtn Man,
Life long californian..
If I didn't have daughter here I wouldn't be here. And were talking 30 years of surfing, diving, hiking etc...I used it up better than most..
Calif. is toast, burnt on both sides....
"Is it a vain hope that homes dictated by code to weather hurricanes are built sturdier and better?"
I can haz bailouts? | 01.13.09 -
2000 is pre runup so as long as its CBC(concrete block) I wouldn't worry much. I am not a fan of wood framing in Florida. I will not even look at a place that has it...
Chris
I agree with you Kirk Spencer,
I've been on CR for over a year and a half. And it is likely I will stop reading the comments. The comments have degenerated to people putting out useless information and rants. (there are still good comments, but the size of the comments 400+ is just to large to find them in)
ohh well it was fun and educational while it lasted.
Ah, Beazer. Anyone remember the fraud case filed in Charlotte against them Spring 2007? Wonder how that's going...
...[n]ow, a multiagency investigation of Beazer Homes is approaching two years without resolution, prompting the Tingleys -- and at least two lawmakers -- to wonder what's taking so long.
NewsObserver.com | 404 - Page not found
(Article contains a nice photo of the Beazer Bus, long since recommissioned for foreclosure tours...)
What happened, and what can I do to help fix it (if it's fixable)?
Kirk Spencer
the writing is on the wall. The opinions and facts were hashed over and over, and the conlcusion is that there is No Way Out.
There is not point in arguing it any further, so now it's time to just laugh and enjoy.
If you don't believe that, then search the archives to your hearts content. It's all there.
I call on all Americans to do their duty and destroy all new home subdivisions now.
to all who bash comments here...
good and bad is essentially within everything..I wonder if your coming here for enlightment or something...
I keep driving even though the majority of people can't drive worth a shit...
Lots of gold and gems in here, alas like everything else you have to work for it, dig deeper and you get more gold....except placer gold of course...
Re: "Friend of mine with a lot of money"
I guess "a lot of money" is relative, but there are many nicer neighborhoods in Sacramento. Unless he has a job at the airport, he should be able to find a decent house with the same or better commute as he would have in Natomas, plus he would have much better downward protection/appreciation potential for a future resale.
If it is just that he has $95k burning a hole, then he should lease. Probably come out ahead versus buying in Natomas right now.
The comments have degenerated to people putting out useless information and rants.
Translation: Get off my lawn!
What is concrete block? I'm not familiar with home building terminology. The exterior of the house is stucco, im not sure what is underneath.
At this point of the economic collapse, the losses and risk have moved from individual companies collapsing to countries and government collapsing.
Bear that in mind when trying to short via SRS or SKF.
I personally don't think there's much money left (to be made) in those 2.
It's pretty much a given that the world govt already chosen that either the markets are stabilized, or they will go down in flames WITH the collapse.
This translates to:
SRS, SKF no gains, even if situation worsens. And ultimately, either the situation does get better, which means SRS and SKF starts bleeding; or the govt collapses in a ball of flame, which means SRS/SKF isn't your worry at that time.
Be careful people.
The fingerlakes region in Western NY is a pretty sweet place to live.
You can take Ohio and Michigan if you want, I'd much prefer living in that area of the country.
And they produce wine and have a few distilleries. works for me.
Denninger called it this morning. If you really believe Mad Max is the inevitable outcome, you'd be doing something more productive than browsing blogs. Therefore, you don't buy your own BS and are just doom-mongering. Or doing your thing for neo-Soviet PsyOps, I am increasingly beginning to suspect.
Another way to consider what I said:
Imagine there's a minature stock market, with a mini "SKF" or "SRS" equivalent for Iceland.
When Iceland collapsed, whether or not one invested in those 2 funds makes no difference.
hc-
wrong...
If you are annoyed by time-wasting comments, just scan through and click on the links. FFDIC's links are particularly good.
Pfizer plans to lay off up to 800 researchers in 2009: WSJ
SRS, SKF no gains, even if situation worsens. And ultimately, either the situation does get better, which means SRS and SKF starts bleeding; or the govt collapses in a ball of flame, which means SRS/SKF isn't your worry at that time.
I've got a good chunk of SRS. If it never goes up and the economy gets better, life is very good for me.
If the economy crashes, I get to say I was right and have something to think about while I garden and hunt.
It is win win. Or I could just have it sit in cash. But that is pretty boring.
"The fingerlakes region in Western NY is a pretty sweet place to live. "
there are some beautiful parts of greater new england, and if you love the seasons and don't need a particularly jumping job base, it could well be paradise.
12th Percentile:
"If the economy crashes, I get to say I was right and have something to think about while I garden and hunt."
All the power to you. I envy your ability to accept that.
I'm still stuck trying to "escape" this. Like the hypothetical Icelander trying to escape the country's collapse.
Except we're not in iceland anymore, and the collapse isn't one country, but global.
Short of moving to Mars, I'm utterly desperate and depressed.
but at least they grow food out in the central valley, enough to feed india.
If you call that "food." Ever had a California "strawberry"? Two millimeters of berry surrounding a pound of white core. You can keep it. And the salmonella tainted iceberg lettuce that costs too much to transport.
WNY is the 2nd biggest apple producer in the country. When California's water runs out, WNY will have plenty.
And when global warming fries Napa, WNY will have the country's premier wine district (the Finger Lakes) as well.
As for the taxes, they're very high, but at least the money isn't being given totally hand over fist to CRE developers. Other states around the U.S. are paying for their "low taxes" right now. Not so great, is it.
There's a lot of conventional wisdom about "the good life" that needs to be rethought.
"Imagine there's a minature stock market"
i do like this page occasionally for the big picture. today is a good day for it in terms of a nice mix:
Map of the Market at SmartMoney.com
it would be interesting to see an international gdp equivalent, especially with quarterly data
"it could well be paradise."
Indeed. My neighbor recently bought land there and plans to do just that. I'd probably be there already but my wife isn't too keen on living in the woods.
You are correct that there are no jobs. But I don't think there are jobs in the rust belt either and I have no desire to live in Indiana. I've worked there. Nice people. Not much scenery.
"There's a lot of conventional wisdom about "the good life" that needs to be rethought."
i agree with much of that. 80/55 here today. flip flops on, gotta go.
May I humbly suggest that if you want a say in O' game plan, you make your opinions known at:
Change.gov: The Obama-Biden Transition Team | momentvision
I am not saying that they will follow your advice or that the person(s) will move the information up the food chain, however, it's better than masturbation...
Give it a shot...I have already entered this website as a sounding board to their ideas...
jmho
Mal,
Actually Eastern Wa is the new Napa...
Ny not so...
Mal,
an I don't know of any better fruits then hand picked calif...Going to market back east is like looking at gray....plain....
If you call that "food." Ever had a California "strawberry"? Two millimeters of berry surrounding a pound of white core. You can keep it. And the salmonella tainted iceberg lettuce that costs too much to transport.
Is that what we export to other states? Yeesh, sorry about that. The stuff I get at farmers markets around here is delicious. There's a lot of fruits and vegetables I didn't really like until I started passing up the supermarket and going to the farmers market.
cd, wow, you beat me to my comments. Eastern wa and parts of oregon are now the new napa. New York growing areas are not far behind though, but so far inferior.
thanks ille...calif has lots of bad but the fruit blows away everywhere I've traveled-all seasons...
Kohn gives no estimate for 'ultimate cost' of TARP
Kirk Spencer said: "...What happened, and what can I do to help fix it (if it's fixable)?"
Interesting observation and question.
A theory: The serious debate here ended when the NBER declared the recession.
Poster "I can haz bailouts?" said: "...Kirk we have become impotent disaster junkies taking pleasure in watching a slow motion train wreck..."
With nothing to debate any more, since the recession/not recession issue and all its implications has been resolved, the "disaster junkies" now dominate.
I would guess that this will last until some evidence of recession's end starts to show up. The more clever and farsighted among us will see the signs of a turnaround, they'll get into arguments with the "disaster junkies" and things will get interesting again.
JMO.
Sebastia
seb makes his appearance....I find it funny that you consider your fellow man disaster junkies...
maybe we are trying to find ways to somehow get thru this for our kids...
a lot of people start with me, it has nothing to do with you and me..
our childrens future is at stake here..
your happy govt. talk is just that talk...anyone mess's with my kid, hope will be your last good memory, govt included....
It is win win. Or I could just have it sit in cash. But that is pretty boring.
12th Percentile | 01.13.09 - 11:33 am | #
Being boring saved me from losing over 50% of my networth.
I only gamble with at most 10% at any time.
ot mine, didn't see if already posted: the Citibank and Morgan Stanley proposed merger will be re-named Citi Morg
Why would someone who doesn't have the skillset to fix a house even think used when you can get a new one for the same price?
The nice,no repair needed homes are still suffering from peak pricing and not selling...Welllll over 80k for a 20 year old place.
Chris
Cobradriver | 01.13.09 - 11:17 am | #
don't know about 30 year old but I certainly think that a 50 year old home fixed up is worth more than the comparable amount spent on a new home e.g. plaster versus sheetrock. The quality of materials was just better 50 years ago.
Here's Taki Theodoracopulos' personal feelings after losing a cool 8 figure sum to Madoff:
Madoffs Make Away
Taki’s Magazine, edited by Taki Theodoracopulos
and do add insult to injury, Madoff remains in his 7 million NYC penthouse.
Judge Allows Madoff to Stay Free on Bail 01/12/09 - 12:47 PM EST
NEW YORK -- A judge allowed disgraced money manager Bernard Madoff to remain free on bail Monday, rejecting an attempt by prosecutors to send him to jail for mailing more than $1 million in jewelry to family and friends over the holidays.
The decision is sure to outrage investors who have been clamoring for Madoff to be sent to jail for allegedly carrying out the largest financial fraud in history.
Prosecutors said the gifts were grounds to have his bail revoked because what's left of Madoff's assets will have to be returned to burned investors.
Judge Allows Madoff to Stay Free on Bail | Innovation Update | Financial Articles & Investing News | TheStreet.com
Western NY a paradise? Folks, it almost seems we have a realturd peddling more real estate garbage on this blog. All of NY is in a secular economic decline and has been for 30 years. You will get property taxed to death, there is no work and real estate prices are still grossly overstated. Worse yet, there is 6 months of HARD winter.
Anyone who says $70k is a bargain on a 100 year old house in a place where the work is a choice between a Walmart and a diner and the weather is what it is is LYING.
crazyvermonter | 01.13.09 - 11:56 am
50 years ago???
I doubt there are more than a few thousand homes in our county over 50. Heck the roads were paved 40 years ago and the county is still less than 30% developed...
The CBC construction here is pretty good. They pour a 12" solid concrete ring on top of the block and the roof is tied to it. Pretty much anything since Andrew that isn't wood is good constuction...
Chris
cd said: "seb makes his appearance....I find it funny that you consider your fellow man disaster junkies..."
Myself, I was only talking about the ones who now seem to dominate the comments here, a self-selected, deeply-disturbed minority group.
S.
Cobra, It's called a bond beam and yes, I'd take a CMU structure over wood framing all week long.
crazy VTer..... let me guess.... you're a flatlander.
"It's time the government stopped being outsized and outgunned by the corporations it supposedly regulates."
Yes...Too big to fail is too big. Too interconnected to fail is also too interconnected. Too leveraged to fail is too leveraged. We need to get and keep the bankers out of our pockets. They are only money distributors after all. How much of this is incompetence and how much is corruption? All the confusion reeks of a high class shell game.
I can haz bailouts? writes:
What is concrete block? I'm not familiar with home building terminology. The exterior of the house is stucco, im not sure what is underneath.
Concrete block is a structural component. If you have a basement, the walls are 99% of the time concrete. The builder has two choices: a) assemble forms and call for the concrete truck to pour into the forms. This is called a 'poured' foundation. the alternative is b) build the walls with concrete blocks. Blocks are cheaper than a pour, but more labour is involved. I personally prefer the poured wall - just my preference...
Often you will not realize the basement is made of blocks (based on exterior view), because the blocks are covered over (above grade) with a thin coat of finish cement to make the appearance look better. This is called 'parging' (cement)
Steel Workers : screw 'em. Ship their jobs overseas.
Ag Workers : screw 'em. migrants from Mexico will do for less.
Tech Workers : screw 'em. Import some H-1B guest to replace them.
Bank Managers: Oh no! We have to save them!
Kondratieff, Concrete is NEVER poured, it is cast.
In the Irish Times article, I found this some apt advice to our own fearless leaders.
The goal is to avoid the continued operation of an undercapitalised, error-prone bank with a flawed business model and administrative practices, a problematic customer base and a compromised management facing distorted incentives, the paper stated.
Gee, sounds like Citibank and Goldman Sachs does it not?
NYer writes:
Kondratieff, Concrete is NEVER poured, it is cast.
Why is it that some people that don't know anything about construction feel compelled to speak?
Cast refers to components that are made in a factory setting, using a mold. Jeeze...
Kondratieff canuk | 01.13.09 - 12:24 pm | #
Down here in Swampland,USA,there are no basements. The walls are all concrete block for durability. I am not a fan of wood framing in termite country..
Chris
Gee, I'm just resident engineer for the largest civil firm on the planet and a certified trainer for ACI so what could I possibly know.
By the KondratieffKnowNothing, what is the dollar value of your current civil project?
NYer writes:
Gee, I'm just resident engineer for the largest civil firm on the planet and a certified trainer for ACI so what could I possibly know.
I have no idea what you know, but its obvious nothing much about residential construction. Concrete walls that are built using forms on site are called 'poured' walls. Concrete elements made in factories are called precast elements.
NYer writes:
Great, now i'm in a pissing match with a youngster who thinks he knows something. Comical. I'm a retired builder/developer with 25 years of experience in the field. You?
Thats interesting. ACI nor CSI refers to cast in place concrete as "poured" in any of their publications. But we know how complicated building shacks is so you're right... building houses is different.
Actually there is good news here ( unless of course you are slighty weird and bad news = good news )
and its the fact that housing demand is expanding ( via population increase ) and supply contracting ( less production of new homes)
So oversupply of homes will decline
Get it ?
A question---Has low wages in America been responsible for poor economy--too broke to spend ?
NYer writes:
Thats interesting. ACI nor CSI refers to cast in place concrete as "poured" in any of their publications. But we know how complicated building shacks is so you're right... building houses is different.
Great, so you learned something today. Leave it at that.
Concrete - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
CC can save up to 50% in labor costs due to 80% faster 'pouring' and reduced wear and tear on formwork.
Installation
Pervious is installed by being 'poured' into forms, then screeded off, to level (not smooth) the surface, then packed or tamped into place. Due to the low water content and air permeability, within 5-15 minuets of tamping, the concrete must be covered with a 6-mil poly plastic, or it will dry out prematurely and not properly hydrate and cure.
Not to labour the point on blocks verses a poured wall, BUT, using blocks, it is not possible to do a radius wall (curve). I used to really enjoy building radius walls (they are fun), and they can only be done with forms. Normally i would use 2 layers of 1/4" plywood, because the 1/4" bends so nicely.
What strength concrete do you recommend in "poured" walls and what admixtures to you recommend? What do you suggest for reinforcing and what schedule of reinforcing? Please note if you use temperature bars.
NYer writes:
What strength concrete do you recommend in "poured" walls and what admixtures to you recommend?
The standard here is 18 to 20 MPa in footings, and higher (say 25 MPa) for a better finish in the walls. That assumes two pours, usually i would just do the footings and walls in one pour. (not too many do it this way).
Its customary (here) to use 2 runs of 5/8th rebar in the footings, and 1/2" rebar in the walls, tied on 18" centers.
First off, I grew up in NY winters, and I prefer snow over the rain that you get in CA winters.
Yes, the taxes are high, but at least the schools are good and the majority of the students speak English, and their parents speak English. Enough said.
The high property taxes keep the home prices reasonable and stable, which is why NY is probably the best place to be right now. CA is falling off a cliff in terms of tax revenue. WNY is one of the top 5 areas for riding out a recession (because it can't get much worse here).
Western NY is not all rust belt...but the only reason why industry is "rusting" is because of greedy outsourcing of jobs that once paid living wages. Still, the cost of living here is relatively low compared to most areas of the country (except for taxes and gasoline).
It's also beautiful in the summer and fall. Nor Cal valley living was too hot to do anything in the summer. The air quality was terrible too.
It's a nice mix of Americans too. It's weird, but I swear that the women from WNY are more attractive than other places in the country.
Lastly, they don't lend money to illegal aliens here.
The thing that I like the least about NY is the strict handgun control here.
What schedule bar? What admixtures? Temperature bars? Horizontals? Corners?
"Ward, don't you think you're being a little hard on the Beazer?"
Thomas G writes:
Finally, some good news. If these home closings just come to an end, we wont have stories about people getting thrown out on the street.
Regardless of whether its the bank or the borrower who has closed up the house, the result is the same. One less place for another American family to live.
We need more effort to start opening homes and less to stop closing them.
Thomas G | 01.13.09 - 11:14 am | #
Perhaps we really need better schools and ethics so we never have to deal with fools who buy homes they can't afford. You sound like a communist.
"Ward, don't you think you're being a little hard on the Beazer?"
Not really.
NYer I also learned a few tricks over the years. One is to soak the forms good with water before the pour, it stops the forms from accelerating the curing period. Another favourite was that i would often (on custom homes) order 3/4" for the job (expensive), use the 3/4" on the poured walls, and then re-use it on the flooring. Its a bit tricky this one, but it makes the walls very damn straight, as 3/4" is VERY strong. But you need to have enough floor area and concrete wall area to make it practical. Also you lose the benefit of T&G on the floor, but its stronger. (i like that).
I always over-braced my forms to the hilt. You could land a helicopter on my forming work and it wouldn't budge an 1/8th". If you are ever supervising such a job, watch for poor bracing - its common.
NYer writes:
What schedule bar? What admixtures? Temperature bars? Horizontals? Corners?
I just told you both - what is it you didn't understand? Are you just trying to prove you know something? Its not working...
On the corners, we bend the steel on the job OR order pre bent corners and tie them in. Why don't you just visit a residential job site sometime (and don't where a white hat)
What schedule bar Cunuk? You didn't answer.
What admixtures if any?
Temperture bars if any?
What about horizontals?
What do you put in corners?
I can haz bailouts? writes:
What is concrete block? I'm not familiar with home building terminology. The exterior of the house is stucco, im not sure what is underneath.
I can haz bailouts? | 01.13.09 - 11:29 am | #
Which is why so many dopes bought cardboard boxes in CA, FL and NV.
AS i said above: READ:
The standard here is 18 to 20 MPa in footings, and higher (say 25 MPa) for a better finish in the walls. That assumes two pours, usually i would just do the footings and walls in one pour. (not too many do it this way).
Its customary (here) to use 2 runs of 5/8th rebar in the footings, and 1/2" rebar in the walls, tied on 18" centers.
Means Vert AND Horz 18"
This is getting silly now... moving to a new thread...
Canuk, Bar SCHEDULE, not size, what admixtures? Splice lengths specified by who? What type of water stop?
Why would any concrete contractor install wall reinforcing when it is not required by any known code anywhere?
No reply due complete BS. Typical.
Gosdh this is what I like about reading Calc Risk....fucking REBAR.
NY, you sound more like a spec writer rather than someone who actually does any work. What do your superintendants call it when the concrete comes out of the truck? Casting? Really?
Of course, most concrete seems to be pumped lately rather than poured.
It is all about liquidity isn't it?
I love Denninger's Blog post today. I must say, this guy is the consistently hardest hitting poster anywhere. I have a vision of him standing at the bottom of a huge castle wall...maybe Bastille is a better word, and ponding on it with a 8lb sledge hammer, furiously slamming it hard while screaming at the untouchable occupants inside, and desperately yelling over his shoulder every third blow to the silent crowd of onlookers behind to help him break through. I hope he makes it.
Ahh... a concrete guy. Hello SuperP. Most will say "pour" but as you already know, concrete is a solid and requires just enough water to hydrate portland and roughly double that amount to make it plastic. The expression "pour concrete" is (poor)(form), pun intended. To place or cast is accurate and professional. No I don't write CSI spec but read and enforce much of it.
Ny here's the understanding you (dumbass) are missing..
One 'places' poured concrete.
Still making up your own stuff huh Capcake? Lets see you backpedal some more;
Canuk, Bar SCHEDULE, not size, what admixtures? Splice lengths specified by who? What type of water stop?
Its never good to match wits with a half-wit, especially in public.
Canuk, Bar SCHEDULE, not size, what admixtures? Splice lengths specified by who? What type of water stop?
Cmon... step up Cupcake. Don't backpedal.
So you have to take a few minutes to google some more. Take your time.
Stop embarrassing yourself NYer.
I can't answer the questions so I'm going to backpedal.
Canuk, Bar SCHEDULE, not size, what admixtures? Splice lengths specified by who? What type of water stop?
Cmon... step up Cupcake. Don't backpedal.
OneAegis wrote:
On one hand, I believe that the US has too long ignored investing in itself - long term projects that benefit all that use them. Highways, bridges and energy transmission all fall into this category.
Yet after an unprecedented rise in housing prices, a whole economy was predicated upon clouds. A huge amount of the rise in consumer spending was driven by their job building overpriced houses, selling overpriced houses or taking equity out of their overpriced houses. So at what point do you say, "We should not spend out way out of these problems, it is a valid market correction."
I would love to see an analysis done of US median income growth over the past 10 years, with adjustments made to construction and real estate related income, bringing them in line with historical norms. By adjusting that number down (substantially, I would imagine) there will be a much clearer view of how much of the economy was fueled by spending on home equity, either directly (HELOC) or indirectly (perceived value of home drives credit card spending, etc.) I believe it would be found that a large majority of the "growth" in this period could be attributed to equity spending, which is why it is so dangerous to be using stimulus as an attempt to return to the status quo.
Sorry for the rant here, and due to the minuscule comment box its hard to review to see if it all comes together and make sense. It is a qualitative premise to be sure, but one that comes from a field level view of the industry over the past 7 years.
Couldn't be better news honestly. The home builders were as bad as the banks in this mess.