Meanwhile the CBO says even without Obama's stimulus plan, America's debt could rise from 42% of GDP in 2008 to 54% in 2010, a 55 yr high. Under current tax and spending policies it is heading higher. Investors fearing America will have to inflate its way out of this debt mess will push the dollar down and interest rates up.
Gubbmint Cheese, the Fed has reduced their balance sheet a little - so even though these indicators are still on life support - it's not getting worse (at least right now).
mal(Unrated) writes: Maybe these indicators have had their 15 minutes, like the Baltic Dry?
Fixed at 889 today. Marking an upward tack but it has been at roughly this level since mid-October. By this measure, nobody has booked a freight ship at anything remotely like operating cost for almost 90 days. Shipper bankruptcies should really start to come down like hail in the next 30-60 days.
It sounds like you can get a better interest rate on loans now but how many loans are actually being made? Is there any way to track that? At one point Calculated Risk was tracking some potential deals but that doesn't seem to be followed anymore.
Great to hear about all this progress on the credit front. Seeing our money get cycled around and around by and through the FED makes me think of a restaurant where, after you give the waiter your order, a sous chef swings by your house to steal all the ingredients for your meal out of your kitchen.
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence ... especially when the market mechanism has been corrupted by goverment intervention thus clouding its' predictive lens
1 currency soon yogi writes: I believe many inter-bank loans are now guaranteed by the FED or Treas. Can't recall details. So the spread is bogus.
You are right. Interbank lending is central banks lending to themselves.
The high-end CP market can't be too much different. Today the Fed pretends to be a different bank when it lets you roll over the paper it was holding for you.
I can see why they do it, you don't want to lose the bourses as an exchange complex / active technology / whatever you want to call it. And it's the best way to funnel funds you have.
Does seem like a funny way to run a railroad though.
Imagine all those adjusted rate mortgage loans tied to treasuries or even the 3 month LIBOR? The rates are looking pretty good!
Are you ignoring how far underwater the borrowers are going to be and the reduced term when the neg-am loan resets? No one paid down their neg am and when they see their payment now fixed for 25 years or so, the interest rate won't really matter.
Credit conditions have led the economy in this cycle. Credit started to go off the rails in Aug.07, and the economy slipped into recession 4 months later. Credit went into full-on meltdown in Sep.08, and the economy has hit the skids hard since October/November. Credit in the interbank market has improved a lot since the beginning of the year, though it's still no where near normal (whatever that is now), so maybe the economy reverts back to a less savage downturn by say March. That being said, I don't expect a real recovery, and think things will stay weak for a long time though, like years.
U.S. Dec. federal outlays $321.4 billion, up 41%
U.S. Dec. federal receipts $237.8 billion, down 14%
Ok, what we need is a Fed program. Treasury can issue bonds to the Fed backed by the taxpayer, and the Fed can expand its balance sheet. BAM! The U.S. will make money on the deficit. The bigger the deficit, the more money we make!
"AOk, what we need is a Fed program. Treasury can issue bonds to the Fed backed by the taxpayer, and the Fed can expand its balance sheet. BAM! The U.S. will make money on the deficit. The bigger the deficit, the more money we make!"
Who says perpetual motion machines are impossible?
It sounds nice but these indicators lost their meaning due to Fed interventions. However, junk bonds spreads (where Fed does not intervene) improved very little and are at extremely distressed levels.
It sounds nice but these indicators lost their meaning due to Fed interventions. poszi | 01.13.09 - 2:26 pm | #
I think the bigger "loss" is volume..... sure, the TED spread is down. So if you can get a loan, it's not at "FMITA rates". But the low FICO score people just don't get loans any more.
The FTC - Whole Foods issue shows how bad unchecked government regulation can be - I bet this is costing the taxpayer millions in FTC costs, for a merger that IMO is not even close to unfair.
Sirius and XM can merge, but not two grocery stores, which have scores of competitors?
i used to learn things from the comments on this blog. what a waste of time now, only hecklers.
there are very few people here interested in creating something better for the future. instead here are mostly people who have given up, hoarded food and armed themselves.
they now sit in their bunker with the internet umbilical cord up their ass gloating at how clever they were for seeing the obvious.
well good for you! time to get back to work!
and the rest of you, stop rubbernecking.
hey lemmings, new thread! new thread!
why don't you do something useful.
an earlier thread was about the trade deficit for christ's sake. nobody was on topic.
most of what is happening in the comments these days is the equivalent scribbling on the bathroom stalls.
...with your own excrement.
all this mental masturbation only serves to keep you from affecting real change in your immediate environment.
all these faux connections you make through your internet connection only serve to keep you from making real connections with your neighbors and keep you from addressing needs of real people right outside your door.
these faux connections keep you flapping your gills in yer fukin' internet bento box like self satisfied sushi set to be swallowed by greater frauds than yourselves.
ask yourself why everyone looking out for their self interest hasn't worked.
if this global bitch slap by the invisible hand isn't enough to convince you we need to work for a new god then i don't know...
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence comrade swan | Homepage | 01.13.09 - 2:08 pm | #
Of course it is. It is not "proof of absence", but it certainly qualifies as evidence. I have no idea why that saying is repeated so often when it is so patently false.
Fair Economist writes:
stockdog42, at present the Fed is buying high grade paper and not midgrade commercial paper (at least supposedly). That would actually increase the spread if the market can't arbitrage properly. It's actually one of the few indicators left that Fed action isn't making artificially good, unlike TED or LIBOR.
Thanks for the info--clearer to me now
Go fly a kite. There is nothing to learn from an authoritarian government doing whatever they want. But thanks for the brilliant insight that you contributed. Now go back to work. Stop scribbling excrement on the walls.
Maybe the Obama team is looking for an out regarding Geithner. I have read opinions that Geithner was just going to be Larry Summers puppet, and Larry Summers wasn't going to be nominated as Treas Sec because he would have a hard time getting through the approval process. Larry would be calling the shots. Something to think about...
That ain't supposed to happen. Sat next to that baby that had a leg removed from his brain on trip back from Denver yesterday. Maybe I caught some replicating syndrome.
Imagine all those adjusted rate mortgage loans tied to treasuries or even the 3 month LIBOR? The rates are looking pretty good!
That would be me. An Interest Only ARM pegged to the one month LIBOR. The one month LIBOR is currently 0.42. We have a 2.50 premium on top of that, so our rate is currently 2.92. We're going to use the extra money to buy oil related equities.
We're going to use the extra money to buy oil related equities. Morocco Bama | 01.13.09 - 2:43 pm | #
I remember during the NASDAQ bubble hearing ads for HELOCS that actually said things like "use the money for anything..... tuition, a vacation, or JUMP ON A HOT STOCK".
I remember during the NASDAQ bubble hearing ads for HELOCS that actually said things like "use the money for anything..... tuition, a vacation, or JUMP ON A HOT STOCK".
Eric | 01.13.09 - 2:45 pm | #
Yeah, I remember that. You wouldn't suggest that I double up on my payments, would you, in this declining market, building equity in your home is moronic when your loan to value is near 100%, or greater. Truthfully, we're a one income family, so we will use the extra just to get by. We will probably replenish savings since we blew through a lot of it during my period of unemployment. We also racked up $5,500 in credit card debt, but I'm going to wait to pay that down, because if things get as bad as many here say it will, the bank can eat that amount....and have my house. It's difficult being responsible in an irresponsible system.
The new home we're building (assuming that finances hold up) will be under 1700 ft^2. And it will be plenty once the kids fly the coup.
xxxxx | 01.13.09 - 2:47 pm | #
there are very few people here interested in creating something better for the future. instead here are mostly people who have given up, hoarded food and armed themselves.
I asked for predictions on when or IF those who comment here think it will kick in.
Ticker Tape of Doom | 01.13.09 - 2:53 pm | #
No prob.
My answer is watch the 10-year bond yield.
The curve is 100% manipulated right now.
Inflation will kick in once that is done and the dollar is devalued. It will be a currency deflation that will be increasing the price of imports that you feel first.
So your salary remains the same, everything imported will rise in price and local asset values will continue to drop or stay flat.
having any form of debt, including a mortgage, is not a sign of the kind of 'responsible' person free to moralize on the subject
bgates | 01.13.09 - 2:55 pm | #
I agree, we should end usury. It makes us all slaves to the Plutocracy.
Inflation will kick in once that is done and the dollar is devalued. It will be a currency deflation that will be increasing the price of imports that you feel first.
So your salary remains the same, everything imported will rise in price and local asset values will continue to drop or stay flat.
Thanks IT. I will be keeping an eye on the yield of the 10 year bond then.
" It's difficult being responsible in an irresponsible system."
I love how Morocco Bama justifies his irresponsible behavior. He definitely doesn't seem to have a problem being irresponsible and I suspect he will get all he deserves in life.
For whomever asked upthread when inflation and interest rates will go up.
Budget Director Pick Sounds Alarm
Peter R. Orszag, President-elect Barack Obamas choice for budget director.
Even without new spending to stimulate the economy, Mr. Orszag said, the federal budget deficit in the current fiscal year is likely to exceed $1 trillion more than 8 percent of gross domestic product, and the largest in our history with the exception of the Civil War and the two World Wars.
Mr. Orszag, whose official position would be director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, offered an equally alarming projection of the fiscal future. Even after the nation recovers from the current recession, he said, the government is likely to run budget deficits equal to 5 percent of the gross domestic product over the next five to 10 years.
km4 writes:
Meanwhile the CBO says even without Obama's stimulus plan, America's debt could rise from 42% of GDP in 2008 to 54% in 2010, a 55 yr high.
If you had watched the Senate Hearing about the budget the other day, you would know that these figures E X C L U D E the Social Security deficit (see Senators K. Conrads correcting the Acting Director of the Congressional Budget Office Director Sunshine !)
Werner - that 42% an 54% of GDP only reflect outstanding Treasuries held by the public. The amount of outstanding Treasuries is 77% on this day according to the Treasury and the last $13.84 trillion GDP.
I love how Morocco Bama justifies his irresponsible behavior. He definitely doesn't seem to have a problem being irresponsible and I suspect he will get all he deserves in life.
® | 01.13.09 - 3:06 pm | #
Just like those Palestinians, right? Nah, the rich pricks in America are going to be the ones that get what's coming to them. The Democratic Socialist wave that's spreading across South and Latin America is coming to our shores. Your days are numbered, and I can't wait to see your head hanging on a stick.
Morocco Bama writes:
I love how Morocco Bama justifies his irresponsible behavior. He definitely doesn't seem to have a problem being irresponsible and I suspect he will get all he deserves in life.
® | 01.13.09 - 3:06 pm | #
Just like those Palestinians, right? Nah, the rich pricks in America are going to be the ones that get what's coming to them. The Democratic Socialist wave that's spreading across South and Latin America is coming to our shores. Your days are numbered, and I can't wait to see your head hanging on a stick.
Morocco Bama | 01.13.09 - 3:16 pm | #
Yikes...
Everybody keep your shorts on and your head off the pikes please...
still, we're all comrades now, and "democratic socialism" will be the name of the game...of course that will be a euphemism...
Eric writes: \tA penny here, a penny there..... Eric | 01.13.09 - 3:13 pm | # ----- I just wonder where Mr. Market is trying to go. Can he divide asexually and accomplish both goals?
On second thought, it might be insulting to amoebas to compare them to Mr. Market...
"Senate Democratic leaders think the issue is manageable."
Is this code for "she's a hot Swedish au pair who made a mistake in getting her visa extended as opposed to a Spanish-speaker from one of those Democratic Socialist countries that inhabit the other half of our hemiscpere"?
OT but on the 1/2 gallon of ice cream topic - I went to my refrigerator after someone mentioned th 1.5qt/0.5gal thing and saw that A) Dreyer's was the 1.5qt and B) Blue Bell specifically highlights "still a 1/2 gallon" on the side.
Nemo - did you see the t-bill activity charts for December I posted?
Enjoy your stock picking, credit card debt and underwater mortgage with a non-amortizing mortgage. You should worry about your own problems before worrying about others.
No inflation?
Everytime I go buy groceries I see it.
I could care less how much cheaper flat screen televisions are getting.
I don't spend my money on that.
Almost everything I do spend money on (primarily needs, not wants) cost more today than it did yesterday.
Mr. Market is definitely itching to go somewhere. I wish I had half a clue which way so I could feel like an attempt to profit on the upcoming move was anything less than outright lottery ticket buying.
Yeah, there is a lot of stealth inflation. The ice cream is just one of them. Yogurt containers are also smaller -- thinking of Safeway's 10 for 5 or 6 dollars. Ever woneder why there's a dimple on the bottom of the container? Are the dimples getting any smaller?
Enjoy your stock picking, credit card debt and underwater mortgage with a non-amortizing mortgage. You should worry about your own problems before worrying about others.
® | 01.13.09 - 3:24 pm | #
My problems are your problems you ignorant asshat. The Palestinian's problems are your problems you apologist for Empire and Plutocracy. When things get bad enough, I'm coming for the likes of you, and I'm taking back what you stole. I won't be alone.
April 30 is 100 days after January 20 if anyone wanted to know
eh they could rally that long, shielded from some trade data with stealth bankers bailouts, but that seems like a lot of work
if I were the new President I would want to see things crash hard and fast, because people don't care what level they're at so long as the direction is a nice reliable uptrend
in other words, if i had to nationalize Citigroup in the next 4 years (a certainty), then I would rather do it in the first 10 days
Does the CME trade binary futures on when Obama gets grey hair yet. They should it's an important event I want to hedge against
Keen to understand the basis for your personal claim of prior ownership? Or is this more in the spirit of liberation in the name of the Bolivaran revolution?
Just came across this Depression-era cartoon, Oswald the Lucky Rabbit in "Confidence." Well worth a watch. It even has FDR singing (and walking):
Confidence! can lick this whole depression Confidence! and wear the right expression Smile, grin, and laugh right out loud, and watch the golden sunshine scatter every cloud;
Confidence! Hey hey! it's our salvation Confidence! the hope of this great nation Teach it, preach it, count (?) it, shout it, Confidence, just have confidence!
bgates writes:
"i'm too busy making a job to "get" one."
thanks for creating new tax revenue, you're a hero. how do you find time to post with all of this entrepreneurial fervor?
bgates | 01.13.09 - 2:45 pm | #
The same way I do: build a company and hire employees. Way too many titty sucking babies in the country.
"Inflation will kick in once that is done and the dollar is devalued. It will be a currency deflation that will be increasing the price of imports that you feel first.
So your salary remains the same, everything imported will rise in price and local asset values will continue to drop or stay flat."
I have to disagree with this. There are too many global forces which would tend to counterbalance. All those dollar holders will need someplace else to go. Is there really anything so much better out there that would warrant such a mass flight from the dollar and be able to absorb it? The US would start looking cheap and attractive very quickly. Also, much of the world is having to deal with the same problems as the US using tools which are similar in nature if not scale. The remainder of the world is dependent on imports to the US and has a vested interest in not letting the dollar slide too much. Plus, it's a long way from the current deflationary doom scenario to inflation. No doubt there will be continued detrioration in the dollar over time as the US slips from economic superpower status and some other countries ascend. And the Fed will probably overshoot creating some inflation, but it will be able to yank the chain pretty quickly if that is the case. It will really have to. Entitlement spending adjusts for inflation and we've all seen those graphs recently.
The more likely and worrisome scenario is long-lasting deflation and depression.
"A confidence trick or confidence game (also known as a bunko, con, flim flam, gaffle, grift, scam, scheme, or swindle) is an attempt to defraud a person or group by gaining their confidence."
A Message to Our Customers from Patrick Sheehy and Saber Salam
Home lending remains an integral part of our firm's overall financial strategy, and as such, we have a responsibility to our customers, shareholders and employees. Over the last two years, we have diligently reviewed and adjusted our home lending strategy and practices to address the unprecedented challenges of today's market. Today, we are announcing a strategic shift that we believe will serve our business and our customers well for the long term.
Moving forward, we have decided to focus on loan originations through the Chase bank branches, our Consumer Direct business, and retail-originated loans acquired from Correspondent lenders. Our new strategic direction is supported through the recent merger with Washington Mutual, which increased our bank branch inventory nationwide and enables us to serve nearly 70 percent of the American population.
As a result of our strategic decision, we will no longer accept any new locks and registrations from or purchase any loans originated by brokers effective Friday, January 16, 2009. As a result of these decisions, we are closing our Wholesale business.
We continue to purchase retail-originated loans through our Correspondent business, which includes our Warehouse Lending unit. Our Rural Housing program remains unaffected by this change.
This decision has been an extremely difficult one, but in this current environment, we feel it is the most prudent one to make.
Attached is a bulletin to our Wholesale customers which outlines the business specifics of this change. Please review the document in detail as to any impacts to you and your business process with Chase.
EA2009-05 Chase to Cease Origination through Wholesale Broker Business
Thank you for your business and support over the years.
Russia accused of playing 'trick' as gas turned off again
By Bruno Waterfield in Brussels and Miriam Elder in Moscow
Last Updated: 8:17PM GMT 13 Jan 2009
At 07.00 GMT on Tuesday, Gazprom announced that normal service had been resumed of supplies to Ukraine. But within three hours EU officials announced that "little or no" gas was getting through.
Both Russia and Ukraine then blamed each other for a failure to reopen pipelines and the uneasy EU-brokered truce disintegrated as both sides traded accusations.
[snip]
According to EU monitors sent to check pipelines in Ukraine and Russia, the Russians resumed supply only to then deliberately channel gas via difficult routes and at insufficient pressure to guarantee supplies to Europe.
Officials close to negotiations have also reported that Russia has tried to physically block EU monitors, sent to both countries to monitor gas flows.
"Russia played a trick by saying it would resume supply. Russia set this up to convince everyone it is the Ukraine's fault not their own," said a European source.
As the East-West crisis entered its second week, Russia's prime minister, Vladimir Putin, claimed that EU unity might be about to crumble as Bulgaria and Slovakia, both badly hit by energy shortages, will on Wednesday break ranks with the EU to open direct negotiations with Russia.
[snip]
Ukraine's Western-leaning government, which faces deep Russian hostility to its ambitions to join Nato, has begun to feel the effects of the dispute.
A poll released on Tuesday found that President Viktor Yushchenko's approval rating stands at just 2.4 per cent.
"Each person living in Ukraine should understand that what has happened is not the blackmail of our state, it is the blackmail of each of you," said Mr Yushchenko.
Inflation, inflation, where art thou? Milk prices were over $20 per hundredweight, or per hundred pounds, at the start of 2008 and finished the year flirting with the $10 level, the Western Milling Weekly Feed and Dairy Newsletter recently noted.
So your salary remains the same, everything imported will rise in price and local asset values will continue to drop or stay flat.
Interesting Times | 01.13.09 - 2:59 pm | #
Sound like a good reason to bring jobs back to the US! Let's do it boys and girls!
Kristallnacht (German pronunciation: [kʁɪsˈtalˌnaxt]; literally "Crystal night") or the Night of Broken Glass, was a pogrom in Nazi Germany on November 910, 1938. On a single night, 91 Jews were murdered and 25,00030,000 were arrested and deported to concentration camps.[1][2] It is often called Novemberpogrom or Reichspogromnacht in German.
The Nazis coordinated an attack on Jewish people and their property in Germany and German-controlled lands as a part of Führer Adolf Hitler's anti-Semitic policy.[3]
The consequences of this violence were disastrous for the Jews under the Third Reich. In a single night, Kristallnacht saw the destruction of more than 200 synagogues and the ransacking of thousands of Jewish businesses and homes. It marked the beginning of the systematic eradication of a people who could trace their ancestry in Germany to Ancient Rome and served as a prelude to the Holocaust that was to follow.[4][5]
otishertz: bless you , this blog has comments that have gone : git your gun,stock up on canned goods and go hide in the hills. I may suggest that when you head to the hills leave your laptop behind.
DOW must be up 300 today. Isn't this the same "no recession wright model B perma-bull" guy that claimed he only lost 10 percent in 2008 when the S&P was down some 40 percent?
By the way, the Eagles are going to beat the Giants and the Cardinals are going going to beat the Panthers.
the context was that on the previous thread, someone thought no one was killed during Kristallnacht, and it seemed like the implication (at least to me) was that it wasn't a big deal. So I posted the above write-up from Wikipedia to inform those not familiar with Kristallnacht that during "Crystal Night" 25 thousand innocent people were rounded up by the Nazi's and ultimately (the great majority) killed in concentration camps.
Dave of SV writes:
...the context was that on the previous thread, someone thought no one was killed during Kristallnacht,...
Yes, I see. I was involved in that thread and reprimanded joe shmoe for his "The Riechstag Fire was the pre-text that open the path to concentration camps and then to war in Europe". A statement which is factually wrong and where he went overboard.(see : Werner | 01.13.09 - 2:36 pm | #).
But I see there was also :
..mal writes: Reichstag Fire? That was burning and no killing, right? The problem with Kristallnacht was not killing (I don't think anyone was killed, actually). The problem is that it was violence directed specifically against Jewish owned business...
and your pointing out the truth about the Kristallnacht is absolutely correct. The statement :"I don't think anyone was killed, actually" definitely is wrong.
But I think the (WIKIPEDIA statement): "It marked the beginning of the systematic eradication..." is, as I understand Raul Hilberg also wrong, since he explained that (and how) the systematic eradication came about in '41 ! (so, not in '38!). Before '41, the Nazies did not try to systematically eradicate the Jews but tried to emigrate them:
a) there was in '38 a conference in Évian (widely unknown/supressed by political propagand see : Évian Conference) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
where (as the german WIKIPEDIA version says it better, the english version hides/obfuscates it) "Vertreter von 32 Nationen trafen sich auf Initiative des amerikanischen Präsidenten Franklin D. Roosevelt, um die Möglichkeiten der Auswanderung von Juden aus Deutschland und Österreich zu verbessern".(Representatives of 32 nations meet ... to explore ways to improve the emmigration- possibilities/ -capabilities of Jews from Germany and Austria). The upshot is, the Germans wanted their Jews to emigrate, but all these 32 countries did not want to take the Jews. Goebels apparently gloated "Germany offerd her Jews to the world and nobody wanted them" implying the rest of the world also considered the Jews as a problem!
b) after the failure in Évian, the Nazies tried to emigrate the Jews to Madagaskar. (Even A.Eichmann was involved!) And only after that went down the tubes because Germany could not subdue Great Britain (and it's dominance at see) the Nazies contemplated (in/during '41 !) the systematic eradication of the Jews.
It is a sad and profound subject, but it is also sad that the actual facts are widely unknown and are supplanted by propaganda!
I only can recomment/advice people to consult the most preeminent Holocaust researcher Raul Hilberg!
Here again a link to a one hour presentation of him about this subject (albeit only in German) : Video: Rückblick auf die Holocaustforschung - Geschichte und Erinnerung
I agree with 1 currency soon [yogi] on this: the Fed has substituted Fed guarantees for private guarantees... so its that really 'progress'?
If banks cannot return to solvency - which is going to be difficult if they have no profitable businesses to loan to and if they are getting loans rather than gifts from governments - then the whole problem is simply moved down the road a few months.
I wonder if we aren't in sort of a "phony war" period here.
T-Bill and TED's excellent adventure
"By these indicators, the Fed is making progress."
Meanwhile, by other indicators...
still holding JNK - biggest paper position, actually
Mustard seeds are growing
And to think someone just complained today that CR is too doom and gloomish.
"By these indicators, the Fed is making progress."
LOL, I noticed that little caveat...
Maybe these indicators have had their 15 minutes, like the Baltic Dry?
like the Baltic Dry?
mal | 01.13.09 - 1:56 pm | #
I knew that one was done when Erin and Mark started covering it on the Financial Infotainment Channel.
Could someone please post the link to CR companion?
TIA
It seems like this kind of undermines some of the arguments that we urgently need to nationalize the banks.
And if we take these indictors off of life support? then how will they look?
Could someone please post the link to CR companion?
Gatsby | 01.13.09 - 1:59 pm | #
http://crcompanion.blogspot.
I believe many inter-bank loans are now guaranteed by the FED or Treas. Can't recall details. So the spread is bogus.
http://crcompanion.blogspot
Meanwhile the CBO says even without Obama's stimulus plan, America's debt could rise from 42% of GDP in 2008 to 54% in 2010, a 55 yr high. Under current tax and spending policies it is heading higher. Investors fearing America will have to inflate its way out of this debt mess will push the dollar down and interest rates up.
let the games begin...
the fed is making progress loading up on all sorts of financial paper
Gubbmint Cheese, the Fed has reduced their balance sheet a little - so even though these indicators are still on life support - it's not getting worse (at least right now).
best to all
Not exactly a ringing Haloscan endorsement.. . . .
(it's .com, if it gets clipped again).
CR Companion
mal(Unrated) writes:
Maybe these indicators have had their 15 minutes, like the Baltic Dry?
Fixed at 889 today. Marking an upward tack but it has been at roughly this level since mid-October. By this measure, nobody has booked a freight ship at anything remotely like operating cost for almost 90 days. Shipper bankruptcies should really start to come down like hail in the next 30-60 days.
It sounds like you can get a better interest rate on loans now but how many loans are actually being made? Is there any way to track that? At one point Calculated Risk was tracking some potential deals but that doesn't seem to be followed anymore.
Great to hear about all this progress on the credit front. Seeing our money get cycled around and around by and through the FED makes me think of a restaurant where, after you give the waiter your order, a sous chef swings by your house to steal all the ingredients for your meal out of your kitchen.
Gubbmint Cheese, the Fed has reduced their balance sheet a little
Some of of the "reduction" was the result of the decline in Maiden Lane's assets. Not exactly a good thing...
LOL, marston, though it may be more like an extra charge on the plastic for ten times the cost of the meal you only notice 5 weeks later
So the TED spread chart will be somewhat pyramid shaped. Say no m
Thanks Eric. I was beginning to wonder if you were in the middle of an earthquake
Amazing what a few trillion of tax payer money will buy.
I think the real point is there is no demand for loans by consumers.
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence ... especially when the market mechanism has been corrupted by goverment intervention thus clouding its' predictive lens
1 currency soon yogi writes:
I believe many inter-bank loans are now guaranteed by the FED or Treas. Can't recall details. So the spread is bogus.
You are right. Interbank lending is central banks lending to themselves.
The high-end CP market can't be too much different. Today the Fed pretends to be a different bank when it lets you roll over the paper it was holding for you.
I can see why they do it, you don't want to lose the bourses as an exchange complex / active technology / whatever you want to call it. And it's the best way to funnel funds you have.
Does seem like a funny way to run a railroad though.
The decrease in risk is GREAT NEWS. Another bit of good news-the end of the McMansion:
New homes being built smaller
"The American dream is shrinking. For the first time in at least a decade, builders are substantially reducing the size of new houses."
New homes being built smaller - USATODAY.com
Imagine all those adjusted rate mortgage loans tied to treasuries or even the 3 month LIBOR? The rates are looking pretty good!
Are you ignoring how far underwater the borrowers are going to be and the reduced term when the neg-am loan resets? No one paid down their neg am and when they see their payment now fixed for 25 years or so, the interest rate won't really matter.
Anonymous(Unrated) writes:
The decrease in risk is GREAT NEWS.
Unfortunately the measure of risk has been imaginatized.
I guess the recession is over .
Whoops:
U.S. Dec. federal outlays $321.4 billion, up 41%
U.S. Dec. federal receipts $237.8 billion, down 14%
ac(Excellent) writes:
U.S. Dec. federal outlays $321.4 billion, up 41%
U.S. Dec. federal receipts $237.8 billion, down 14%
"That's gotta hurt".
Credit conditions have led the economy in this cycle. Credit started to go off the rails in Aug.07, and the economy slipped into recession 4 months later. Credit went into full-on meltdown in Sep.08, and the economy has hit the skids hard since October/November. Credit in the interbank market has improved a lot since the beginning of the year, though it's still no where near normal (whatever that is now), so maybe the economy reverts back to a less savage downturn by say March. That being said, I don't expect a real recovery, and think things will stay weak for a long time though, like years.
So this makes it W's recovery then?
Yes.. and the market needs to go up 7,000 points in 6 days..
"That's gotta hurt".
But the $83.6B deficit for December was almost spot on the consensus estimate.
Take the market on THAT, baby!
"the $83.6B deficit for December"
gotta love how that annualizes to one penny shy of a trillion. someone has a sense of humor.
Needless Marcup to use Pay in kind bonds. The rifle river has been depleted of sucker fish, who's left?
U.S. Dec. federal outlays $321.4 billion, up 41%
U.S. Dec. federal receipts $237.8 billion, down 14%
Ok, what we need is a Fed program. Treasury can issue bonds to the Fed backed by the taxpayer, and the Fed can expand its balance sheet. BAM! The U.S. will make money on the deficit. The bigger the deficit, the more money we make!
piss-poor april tax revenue - the next shaq-sized shoe?
"AOk, what we need is a Fed program. Treasury can issue bonds to the Fed backed by the taxpayer, and the Fed can expand its balance sheet. BAM! The U.S. will make money on the deficit. The bigger the deficit, the more money we make!"
Who says perpetual motion machines are impossible?
It sounds nice but these indicators lost their meaning due to Fed interventions. However, junk bonds spreads (where Fed does not intervene) improved very little and are at extremely distressed levels.
"gotta love how that annualizes to one penny shy of a trillion. someone has a sense of humor."
Note that the number for the first quarter is -$485B. Which annualizes to $1.94 trillion.
Ouch, mommy.
Yawn.....
Wake me when real people get real money...
When the Fed buys everything in sight no wonder the picture "appears" to be improving.
Now about those qualifying guidelines....
Ciao
MS
It sounds nice but these indicators lost their meaning due to Fed interventions.
poszi | 01.13.09 - 2:26 pm | #
I think the bigger "loss" is volume..... sure, the TED spread is down. So if you can get a loan, it's not at "FMITA rates". But the low FICO score people just don't get loans any more.
"New homes being built smaller"
Consequently builder profit margins are smaller as well...which is fine with me. Builders pushed bigger houses because they made greater profit...
The FTC - Whole Foods issue shows how bad unchecked government regulation can be - I bet this is costing the taxpayer millions in FTC costs, for a merger that IMO is not even close to unfair.
Sirius and XM can merge, but not two grocery stores, which have scores of competitors?
CNN Money Headlines Powered by Business Wire
Someone needs to kick the FTCs ass.
TY for "FMITA." Took me a second to decipher that one, then I laughed out loud.
So what happens after Benny Boy's $500 billion runs out?
That's a rhetorical question BTW.....
Ciao
MS
i used to learn things from the comments on this blog. what a waste of time now, only hecklers.
there are very few people here interested in creating something better for the future. instead here are mostly people who have given up, hoarded food and armed themselves.
they now sit in their bunker with the internet umbilical cord up their ass gloating at how clever they were for seeing the obvious.
well good for you! time to get back to work!
and the rest of you, stop rubbernecking.
hey lemmings, new thread! new thread!
why don't you do something useful.
an earlier thread was about the trade deficit for christ's sake. nobody was on topic.
most of what is happening in the comments these days is the equivalent scribbling on the bathroom stalls.
...with your own excrement.
all this mental masturbation only serves to keep you from affecting real change in your immediate environment.
all these faux connections you make through your internet connection only serve to keep you from making real connections with your neighbors and keep you from addressing needs of real people right outside your door.
these faux connections keep you flapping your gills in yer fukin' internet bento box like self satisfied sushi set to be swallowed by greater frauds than yourselves.
ask yourself why everyone looking out for their self interest hasn't worked.
if this global bitch slap by the invisible hand isn't enough to convince you we need to work for a new god then i don't know...
go back to rest stop poetry.
capitulation in
3....2...
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence
comrade swan | Homepage | 01.13.09 - 2:08 pm | #
Of course it is. It is not "proof of absence", but it certainly qualifies as evidence.
I have no idea why that saying is repeated so often when it is so patently false.
Fair Economist writes:
stockdog42, at present the Fed is buying high grade paper and not midgrade commercial paper (at least supposedly). That would actually increase the spread if the market can't arbitrage properly. It's actually one of the few indicators left that Fed action isn't making artificially good, unlike TED or LIBOR.
Thanks for the info--clearer to me now
Well there goes my boner otishertz
thanks for the on-topic insight otis
otishertz,
Go fly a kite. There is nothing to learn from an authoritarian government doing whatever they want. But thanks for the brilliant insight that you contributed. Now go back to work. Stop scribbling excrement on the walls.
geithner housekeeper controversy... LOL
the mighty nyfed brought down by nannygate crap
s0mebody ha ha,
i flew kites for 6 years! FOr qa living H ha ah aha a
Geithner has zoey problem..someone is trying to torpedo his nomination.
Comrade V,
If you're out there, here's your Buenos Aires info:
Any steak house in Puerto Madero is great. In this area there are also night clubs, bars and great coffee places. Pretty fancy part of the city.
There is one very traditional steak house, a bit pricey, but one of the best places for good meat: Cabana Las Lilas (close to Plaza San Martin)
Try the neighborhoods Las Canitas and Recoleta for people watching and good food.
Geithner has zoey problem.
S | 01.13.09 - 2:35 pm | #
Bwahahahahahahahahahahahaha!
I love it.
maybe we can all day trade our way to prosperity. since we have got these trick markets all figgered out.
Geithner has zoey problem..someone is trying to torpedo his nomination.
The majority will be better off if that wall street puppet gets Borked.
all I can say is anyone but Geithner....Paulson would be better...and I can't stand him either.
Geithner=FRBNY and that has worked SO well over the last few decades.
Ciao
MS
Otis come back after midnight. I'm still working on the digital weighted superbasket index currency (numbers). All help appreciated.
Aw, ac beat me to it.
Federal tax receipts in December were down 14% compared to one year ago.
Hilarious, almost.
Federal government implosion, coming soon.
Geithner has a credibility problem.
high grade paper
who's rating?
they're not buying GE paper , are they?
cause if that's the hi-grade paper ....well....
Bork - the sound you make sitting naked on a leather couch..
(Johnny Carson after Bork was.. well... Borked)
Corzine Warns on New Jersey Budget
In his State of the State address, the governor said repairing the economy was his top priority.
Duh...him and 48 other governers + 1 governator.
I sold over $500,000 in kites! made over $200 every time i flew one.
Paid for my beach cottage that way.
sold in july 05 at the top wailing the sky is falling, the sky is falling.
been there done that.
thank you and good night.
courage.
Maybe the Obama team is looking for an out regarding Geithner. I have read opinions that Geithner was just going to be Larry Summers puppet, and Larry Summers wasn't going to be nominated as Treas Sec because he would have a hard time getting through the approval process. Larry would be calling the shots. Something to think about...
otis - get a job
That ain't supposed to happen. Sat next to that baby that had a leg removed from his brain on trip back from Denver yesterday. Maybe I caught some replicating syndrome.
The kid is healthy, strong and adorable.
Juno kite shop?
i flew kites for 6 years! FOr qa living H ha ah aha a
After reading your uneducated dribble, I would consider schooling the next 6 years.
Imagine all those adjusted rate mortgage loans tied to treasuries or even the 3 month LIBOR? The rates are looking pretty good!
That would be me. An Interest Only ARM pegged to the one month LIBOR. The one month LIBOR is currently 0.42. We have a 2.50 premium on top of that, so our rate is currently 2.92. We're going to use the extra money to buy oil related equities.
bgates,
i'm too busy making a job to "get" one.
this boat will not be raised from the bottom before people stop thinking jobs are something anything other than something you have to make.
"We're going to use the extra money to buy oil related equities."
a true humanitarian. buy plenty of OXY, take a trip to ecuador with the divy.
Fannie Mae to allow renters to stay in foreclosed properties
Fannie Mae to allow renters to stay in foreclosed properties - MarketWatch
I wonder what kind of divis our national reit will pay?
The swing in SDS today is over 12%.
Now that's volatility.
"i'm too busy making a job to "get" one."
thanks for creating new tax revenue, you're a hero. how do you find time to post with all of this entrepreneurial fervor?
We're going to use the extra money to buy oil related equities.
Morocco Bama | 01.13.09 - 2:43 pm | #
I remember during the NASDAQ bubble hearing ads for HELOCS that actually said things like "use the money for anything..... tuition, a vacation, or JUMP ON A HOT STOCK".
Geithner=Summers=Rubin
Ciao
MS
So does any one want to make a prediction about when or if inflation will kick in?
a true humanitarian. buy plenty of OXY, take a trip to ecuador with the divy.
bgates | 01.13.09 - 2:44 pm | #
I don't have acne, though.
"The American dream is shrinking. For the first time in at least a decade, builders are substantially reducing the size of new houses."
http://www.usatoday.com/money/ec...- homesize_N.htm
\t Anonymous | \t \t \t \t01.13.09 - 2:09 pm | #
Anonymous | 01.13.09 - 2:09 pm | #
The new home we're building (assuming that finances hold up) will be under 1700 ft^2. And it will be plenty once the kids fly the coup.
So does any one want to make a prediction about when or if inflation will kick in?
Ticker Tape of Doom | 01.13.09 - 2:46 pm | #
TIPS still aren't pricing in much.
Heck, I can't throw a brick through Geithner's window, now.
I don't want to hit a possible cousin.
TIPS still aren't pricing in much.
Eric | 01.13.09 - 2:48 pm | #
Exactly. This myth of inflation needs to die.
Until the FED buys my "company bonds" and what I say they are worth, then will be no inflation.
then = there. ugh.
Please provide a link to the Geithner story, so I can read and gloat.
Looks like WSJ yanked the Timmy nanny-gate headline.
Does the Ted Spread chart include Citi's recent woes or is it current?
Problem fixed, crisis over.
The Bailout Game | Home
"parking in new york is insane"
cnbc, in touch with america
otishertz writes:
I sold over $500,000 in kites! made over $200 every time i flew one.
That's 2500 kites!
There will be No inflation without wages rising.
I remember during the NASDAQ bubble hearing ads for HELOCS that actually said things like "use the money for anything..... tuition, a vacation, or JUMP ON A HOT STOCK".
Eric | 01.13.09 - 2:45 pm | #
Yeah, I remember that. You wouldn't suggest that I double up on my payments, would you, in this declining market, building equity in your home is moronic when your loan to value is near 100%, or greater. Truthfully, we're a one income family, so we will use the extra just to get by. We will probably replenish savings since we blew through a lot of it during my period of unemployment. We also racked up $5,500 in credit card debt, but I'm going to wait to pay that down, because if things get as bad as many here say it will, the bank can eat that amount....and have my house. It's difficult being responsible in an irresponsible system.
Interesting Times writes:
TIPS still aren't pricing in much.
Eric | 01.13.09 - 2:48 pm | #
Exactly. This myth of inflation needs to die.
Until the FED buys my "company bonds" and what I say they are worth, then will be no inflation.
Interesting Times | 01.13.09 - 2:49 pm | #
If you read my question. I did not say that there is inflation.
I asked for predictions on when or IF those who comment here think it will kick in.
We be jammi
Darn kulaks are not cooperating; Small Business Optimism Index down to second lowest level in its 35 year history (lowest was Feb. '80).
NFIB | Small Business Association
xxxxx writes:
"The American dream is shrinking. For the first time in at least a decade, builders are substantially reducing the size of new houses."
The requested document was not found - USATODAY.com homesize_N.htm
Anonymous | 01.13.09 - 2:09 pm | #
Anonymous | 01.13.09 - 2:09 pm | #
The new home we're building (assuming that finances hold up) will be under 1700 ft^2. And it will be plenty once the kids fly the coup.
xxxxx | 01.13.09 - 2:47 pm | #
And charging the same price. That's inflation.
Try buying a 1/2 gallon of ice cream now.
I love the smell of short squeeze in the afternoon.
It sounds like....
Victory.
Or even "smells."
Market open early today?
" It's difficult being responsible in an irresponsible system."
having any form of debt, including a mortgage, is not a sign of the kind of 'responsible' person free to moralize on the subject
"There will be No inflation without wages rising."
not necessarily true if everyone flushes the greenback at once
Crikey. Mr. Market seems to like Timmy's illegal immigrant nanny.
WSJ pulled the Geithner headline?
I am imagining tentacles, gnomes, and conspiracies, now!
Devaluation vs. inflation - talk amongst yourselves...
There will be No inflation without wages rising.
Unless the government just sends checks to everybody.
If you are looking for inflation in TIPS yields...you are most certainly looking in the wrong place.
"let's have a bond that is tied to core inflation"
Good luck getting anything meaningful out of that.
Gross at Pimco has two angles for pumping them.....yet another bailout or hyper-inflation.
I choose both.
Ciao
MS
otishertz writes:
there are very few people here interested in creating something better for the future. instead here are mostly people who have given up, hoarded food and armed themselves.
I just bought some DBA based on this tip.
I asked for predictions on when or IF those who comment here think it will kick in.
Ticker Tape of Doom | 01.13.09 - 2:53 pm | #
No prob.
My answer is watch the 10-year bond yield.
The curve is 100% manipulated right now.
Inflation will kick in once that is done and the dollar is devalued. It will be a currency deflation that will be increasing the price of imports that you feel first.
So your salary remains the same, everything imported will rise in price and local asset values will continue to drop or stay flat.
Crikey. Mr. Market seems to like Timmy's illegal immigrant nanny.
Assume Crash Positions! | Homepage | 01.13.09 - 2:56 pm | #
I think they like the lack of one, actually. Can't find anything anywhere, and the WSJ pulled it.
having any form of debt, including a mortgage, is not a sign of the kind of 'responsible' person free to moralize on the subject
bgates | 01.13.09 - 2:55 pm | #
I agree, we should end usury. It makes us all slaves to the Plutocracy.
You remind of the star of Thank You For Smoking.
LIBOR is crazy low. My parents' 1-mo-LIBOR-based loan is now about the same monthly payment as my rent.
They live in a 4BR/3BA 3000+ sf house in Corona Del Mar, with about 50% leverage, and I live in a cheap 2BR apartment...
didnt ws rally 900 when geithner pick announced? where's the 900 down now...
games...
Geithner's Tax History Muddles Confirmation - WSJ.com
Nothing on 'GeithnerGate' on Drudge or Fox.
Must be a nothingburger.
MS --
"let's have a bond that is tied to core inflation"
TIPS are tied to CPI, not CPI-core.
"a 4BR/3BA 3000+ sf house in Corona Del Mar"
ultimate cash creator 1998-2007, world's greatest cash destroyer 2008-
Interesting Times writes:
No prob.
My answer is watch the 10-year bond yield.
The curve is 100% manipulated right now.
Inflation will kick in once that is done and the dollar is devalued. It will be a currency deflation that will be increasing the price of imports that you feel first.
So your salary remains the same, everything imported will rise in price and local asset values will continue to drop or stay flat.
Thanks IT. I will be keeping an eye on the yield of the 10 year bond then.
The hospital reported that the thermometer indication of the dead body had improved to near room temperature.
"didnt ws rally 900 when geithner pick announced? where's the 900 down now..."
We rally on any news about Timmah Timmah. Didn't you get the memo?
Ah, GeithnerGate resurrected by Bloomberg:
Senator Grassley Raises Questions on Geithner Pick, WSJ Says - Bloomberg.com
Academic Question: When was the last time that the Nikkei 225 closed under the Dow?
" It's difficult being responsible in an irresponsible system."
I love how Morocco Bama justifies his irresponsible behavior. He definitely doesn't seem to have a problem being irresponsible and I suspect he will get all he deserves in life.
Also: How can C be up 4% while F is down 6.4%? Talk about a weird day.
Academic Question: When was the last time that the Nikkei 225 closed under the Dow?
mid-December
For whomever asked upthread when inflation and interest rates will go up.
Budget Director Pick Sounds Alarm
Peter R. Orszag, President-elect Barack Obamas choice for budget director.
Even without new spending to stimulate the economy, Mr. Orszag said, the federal budget deficit in the current fiscal year is likely to exceed $1 trillion more than 8 percent of gross domestic product, and the largest in our history with the exception of the Civil War and the two World Wars.
Mr. Orszag, whose official position would be director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, offered an equally alarming projection of the fiscal future. Even after the nation recovers from the current recession, he said, the government is likely to run budget deficits equal to 5 percent of the gross domestic product over the next five to 10 years.
- NY Times
[Geithner has zoey problem]
Geithner for Homeland Security chief!
km4 writes:
Meanwhile the CBO says even without Obama's stimulus plan, America's debt could rise from 42% of GDP in 2008 to 54% in 2010, a 55 yr high.
If you had watched the Senate Hearing about the budget the other day, you would know that these figures E X C L U D E the Social Security deficit (see Senators K. Conrads correcting the Acting Director of the Congressional Budget Office Director Sunshine !)
The real figures are above 70% ! Not 50%.
Also: How can C be up 4% while F is down 6.4%? Talk about a weird day.
yagij | 01.13.09 - 3:08 pm | #
A penny here, a penny there.....
Werner no I did not and great point i.e. it's much fuglier !
I think i'm gonnaaaaaa puke
Delta Gamma Theta Vega Rho Theoretical Value Implied Volatility
-0.0366 0.0185 -0.0433 0.0073 -0.0004 0.06 *61.48%
how bad are these greeks?
Werner - that 42% an 54% of GDP only reflect outstanding Treasuries held by the public. The amount of outstanding Treasuries is 77% on this day according to the Treasury and the last $13.84 trillion GDP.
We're out of the woods, no?
I love how Morocco Bama justifies his irresponsible behavior. He definitely doesn't seem to have a problem being irresponsible and I suspect he will get all he deserves in life.
® | 01.13.09 - 3:06 pm | #
Just like those Palestinians, right? Nah, the rich pricks in America are going to be the ones that get what's coming to them. The Democratic Socialist wave that's spreading across South and Latin America is coming to our shores. Your days are numbered, and I can't wait to see your head hanging on a stick.
ac writes:
...There will be No inflation without wages rising.
Unless the government just sends checks to everybody...
and every bank.
how bad are these greeks?
Californicated | 01.13.09 - 3:16 pm | #
What are your goals?
OT: Sorry if this has been posted, but all the chatter about squirrel meat has me hongry.
The other dark meat: Raccoon is making it to the table | McClatchy
Morocco Bama writes:
I love how Morocco Bama justifies his irresponsible behavior. He definitely doesn't seem to have a problem being irresponsible and I suspect he will get all he deserves in life.
® | 01.13.09 - 3:06 pm | #
Just like those Palestinians, right? Nah, the rich pricks in America are going to be the ones that get what's coming to them. The Democratic Socialist wave that's spreading across South and Latin America is coming to our shores. Your days are numbered, and I can't wait to see your head hanging on a stick.
Morocco Bama | 01.13.09 - 3:16 pm | #
Yikes...
Everybody keep your shorts on and your head off the pikes please...
still, we're all comrades now, and "democratic socialism" will be the name of the game...of course that will be a euphemism...
south AND latin america? wow. quick, go fill up at citgo and help hugo out - he needs it.
Treasury Secretary nominee Timothy Geithner is facing questions over the immigration status of a former housekeeper.
Senate Democratic leaders think the issue is manageable. Geithner's confirmation hearing is scheduled for Thursday.
Quotes for EEV - Yahoo! Finance
EEM and EEV were both negative just after the bell. Sector rotation in hedge funds?
Big deal. The U.S. has collapsed. The TED spread or peanut butter and jelly won't fix it.
Moreover, these repetitive TED spread quotes are becoming boring.
Cordially,
Kilgore
Eric writes:
\tA penny here, a penny there.....
Eric | 01.13.09 - 3:13 pm | #
-----
I just wonder where Mr. Market is trying to go. Can he divide asexually and accomplish both goals?
On second thought, it might be insulting to amoebas to compare them to Mr. Market...
Californicated
A weak put that is relatively expensive
tears...i want massive tears!
"Senate Democratic leaders think the issue is manageable."
Is this code for "she's a hot Swedish au pair who made a mistake in getting her visa extended as opposed to a Spanish-speaker from one of those Democratic Socialist countries that inhabit the other half of our hemiscpere"?
OT but on the 1/2 gallon of ice cream topic - I went to my refrigerator after someone mentioned th 1.5qt/0.5gal thing and saw that A) Dreyer's was the 1.5qt and B) Blue Bell specifically highlights "still a 1/2 gallon" on the side.
Nemo - did you see the t-bill activity charts for December I posted?
Anonymous writes:
...Werner - that 42% an 54%....
Yes, you are correct.
"Moreover, these repetitive TED spread quotes are becoming boring."
agreed, while it's still an indicator worth watching, it's off in la la land with the rest of the paper circus...
it means nothing in the current environment, IMHO
teers? (sp?)hmmmm
Morocco Bama,
Enjoy your stock picking, credit card debt and underwater mortgage with a non-amortizing mortgage. You should worry about your own problems before worrying about others.
No inflation?
Everytime I go buy groceries I see it.
I could care less how much cheaper flat screen televisions are getting.
I don't spend my money on that.
Almost everything I do spend money on (primarily needs, not wants) cost more today than it did yesterday.
No inflation my *ss!!!
Mr. Market is definitely itching to go somewhere. I wish I had half a clue which way so I could feel like an attempt to profit on the upcoming move was anything less than outright lottery ticket buying.
http://crcompanion.blogspot.com
Eric | 01.13.09 - 2:02 pm | #
This may be CR Companion's problem, as RE just pointed out to me. I'll take a look at it.
Since you're here, Ken - thanks a million!
Yeah, there is a lot of stealth inflation. The ice cream is just one of them. Yogurt containers are also smaller -- thinking of Safeway's 10 for 5 or 6 dollars. Ever woneder why there's a dimple on the bottom of the container? Are the dimples getting any smaller?
Enjoy your stock picking, credit card debt and underwater mortgage with a non-amortizing mortgage. You should worry about your own problems before worrying about others.
® | 01.13.09 - 3:24 pm | #
My problems are your problems you ignorant asshat. The Palestinian's problems are your problems you apologist for Empire and Plutocracy. When things get bad enough, I'm coming for the likes of you, and I'm taking back what you stole. I won't be alone.
what lots of people don't grasp is how much of our food is imported so yes, it's going up.
Ticker Tape of Doom asked: "So does any one want to make a prediction about when or if inflation will kick in?"
Oil only just recently collapsed from its blow-off top, so I'd say it could be years before inflation becomes problemmatic again (i.e., above 4.25%).
Just going by inflation behavior following previous similar blow-off tops.
Sebastia
I sold over $500,000 in kites! made over $200 every time i flew one
Sold them to the Federal Reserve, did you? Makes it easier to float proposals, I suppose.
.
Comrade Volker the Viking writes:
...all the chatter about squirrel meat has me hongry...
May I offer you this as help :
Squirrel Recipes
(but as a CR-resident, you may already have that link anyway.)
I sold over $500,000 in kites! made over $200 every time i flew one
Peak Kites.
The ice cream is just one of them.
reptillian | 01.13.09 - 3:27 pm | #
Bought a couple of cans of white kidney beans for a recipe the other day. They're in smaller cans now.
MB,
When you see a guy on the street with asking for change, do you ever realize that he has more money than you?
more than 8 percent of gross domestic product, and the largest in our history with the exception of the Civil War and the two World Wars.
The war on deflation is far more important than any conventional war. The solvency of our bankers is at stake.
Just think what would happen to the price of real estate in the Hamptons if we lose the war on deflation.
Give me inflation or give me...
sebastian's back.
that's good for about 30 hey, howya doin posts!
April 30 is 100 days after January 20 if anyone wanted to know
eh they could rally that long, shielded from some trade data with stealth bankers bailouts, but that seems like a lot of work
if I were the new President I would want to see things crash hard and fast, because people don't care what level they're at so long as the direction is a nice reliable uptrend
in other words, if i had to nationalize Citigroup in the next 4 years (a certainty), then I would rather do it in the first 10 days
Does the CME trade binary futures on when Obama gets grey hair yet. They should it's an important event I want to hedge against
before this is all over, we will all have learned how to bend over.
Morocco Bama | 01.13.09 - 3:27 pm | #
Interesting take on no man is an island...
Keen to understand the basis for your personal claim of prior ownership? Or is this more in the spirit of liberation in the name of the Bolivaran revolution?
When you see a guy on the street with asking for change, do you ever realize that he has more money than you?
® | 01.13.09 - 3:30 pm | #
I realize he's a better person than you, and he will inherit the earth.
CR Champion has fractured the comments because nobody is reading the same material, ergo everyone has different contexts.
The effect is probably measurable in word counts and distributions.
.
When you see a guy on the street with asking for change, do you ever realize that he has more money than you?
® | 01.13.09 - 3:30 pm | #
Definitely has a higher networth than plenty of paper millionaires and hedge fund managers trying to keep to avoid being the next Madoff...
Bought a couple of cans of white kidney beans for a recipe the other day. They're in smaller cans now.
Even the size of the containers are now deflating.
bgates writes:
"a 4BR/3BA 3000+ sf house in Corona Del Mar"
ultimate cash creator 1998-2007, world's greatest cash destroyer 2008-
bgates | 01.13.09 - 3:02 pm | #
My favorite aunt sold hers almost 2 years ago. Bought in 83 I think. I'm glad I'm her favorite niece >; )
Just came across this Depression-era cartoon, Oswald the Lucky Rabbit in "Confidence." Well worth a watch. It even has FDR singing (and walking):
Confidence! can lick this whole depression
Confidence! and wear the right expression
Smile, grin, and laugh right out loud,
and watch the golden sunshine scatter every cloud;
Confidence! Hey hey! it's our salvation
Confidence! the hope of this great nation
Teach it, preach it, count (?) it, shout it,
Confidence, just have confidence!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjGTCchapOk
CR,
Suggest one of your bar charts for govi receipts. The one that groups years by month. This is going to be a big deal.
We may discover the national credit limit this year.
Angry Save, yeah, at least the farts are smaller.
bgates writes:
"i'm too busy making a job to "get" one."
thanks for creating new tax revenue, you're a hero. how do you find time to post with all of this entrepreneurial fervor?
bgates | 01.13.09 - 2:45 pm | #
The same way I do: build a company and hire employees. Way too many titty sucking babies in the country.
"Inflation will kick in once that is done and the dollar is devalued. It will be a currency deflation that will be increasing the price of imports that you feel first.
So your salary remains the same, everything imported will rise in price and local asset values will continue to drop or stay flat."
I have to disagree with this. There are too many global forces which would tend to counterbalance. All those dollar holders will need someplace else to go. Is there really anything so much better out there that would warrant such a mass flight from the dollar and be able to absorb it? The US would start looking cheap and attractive very quickly. Also, much of the world is having to deal with the same problems as the US using tools which are similar in nature if not scale. The remainder of the world is dependent on imports to the US and has a vested interest in not letting the dollar slide too much. Plus, it's a long way from the current deflationary doom scenario to inflation. No doubt there will be continued detrioration in the dollar over time as the US slips from economic superpower status and some other countries ascend. And the Fed will probably overshoot creating some inflation, but it will be able to yank the chain pretty quickly if that is the case. It will really have to. Entitlement spending adjusts for inflation and we've all seen those graphs recently.
The more likely and worrisome scenario is long-lasting deflation and depression.
Imelda,
"A confidence trick or confidence game (also known as a bunko, con, flim flam, gaffle, grift, scam, scheme, or swindle) is an attempt to defraud a person or group by gaining their confidence."
Confidence trick - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Adios Chase Wholesale-
http://view.mail.chaseb2b.com/?j=fe5c1577776201757512&m=ff001071736004&ls=fe0317747566057c76137775
A Message to Our Customers from Patrick Sheehy and Saber Salam
Home lending remains an integral part of our firm's overall financial strategy, and as such, we have a responsibility to our customers, shareholders and employees. Over the last two years, we have diligently reviewed and adjusted our home lending strategy and practices to address the unprecedented challenges of today's market. Today, we are announcing a strategic shift that we believe will serve our business and our customers well for the long term.
Moving forward, we have decided to focus on loan originations through the Chase bank branches, our Consumer Direct business, and retail-originated loans acquired from Correspondent lenders. Our new strategic direction is supported through the recent merger with Washington Mutual, which increased our bank branch inventory nationwide and enables us to serve nearly 70 percent of the American population.
As a result of our strategic decision, we will no longer accept any new locks and registrations from or purchase any loans originated by brokers effective Friday, January 16, 2009. As a result of these decisions, we are closing our Wholesale business.
We continue to purchase retail-originated loans through our Correspondent business, which includes our Warehouse Lending unit. Our Rural Housing program remains unaffected by this change.
This decision has been an extremely difficult one, but in this current environment, we feel it is the most prudent one to make.
Attached is a bulletin to our Wholesale customers which outlines the business specifics of this change. Please review the document in detail as to any impacts to you and your business process with Chase.
EA2009-05 Chase to Cease Origination through Wholesale Broker Business
Thank you for your business and support over the years.
The same way I do: build a company and hire employees. Way too many titty sucking babies in the country.
Rich Jerk | 01.13.09 - 3:35 pm | #
Whoa. How do you get around all those sexual harassment lawsuits?
Whoa. How do you get around all those sexual harassment lawsuits?
Interesting Times | 01.13.09 - 3:37 pm | #
His D&O premiums are keeping the US insurance industry solvent...
Rich jerk,
I like babies and ?
The more likely and worrisome scenario is long-lasting deflation and depression.
Unblvbl | 01.13.09 - 3:37 pm | #
I didn't put a timeline on the bond yield blow-out. It could happen in 5 minutes, or it could happen in 10 years.
I agree with your analysis.
Unblvbl - if you reread your post it is nothing more than "the status quo is what must be, because it always has been"
Do you have an ancestor who sat in the British House of Lords circa early 1800s?
"Even the size of the containers are now deflating"
Talk to the baker in the house...can filling portions have change and no longer enough for pie.
New market for smaller pie pans around the corner
Sebastian writes:
Oil only just recently collapsed from its blow-off top, so I'd say it could be years before inflation becomes problemmatic again (i.e., above 4.25%).
Just going by inflation behavior following previous similar blow-off tops.
Sebastian
Thanks for your observations Sebastian.
See, so... the depression is cancelled. Yay!
Thank you for your business and support over the years.
Anonymous | 01.13.09 - 3:37 pm | #
Translation: Crawl into a corner and die.
ot-
any quick thoughts on FXP...
toppy right now?
tia
Russia accused of playing 'trick' as gas turned off again
By Bruno Waterfield in Brussels and Miriam Elder in Moscow
Last Updated: 8:17PM GMT 13 Jan 2009
At 07.00 GMT on Tuesday, Gazprom announced that normal service had been resumed of supplies to Ukraine. But within three hours EU officials announced that "little or no" gas was getting through.
Both Russia and Ukraine then blamed each other for a failure to reopen pipelines and the uneasy EU-brokered truce disintegrated as both sides traded accusations.
[snip]
According to EU monitors sent to check pipelines in Ukraine and Russia, the Russians resumed supply only to then deliberately channel gas via difficult routes and at insufficient pressure to guarantee supplies to Europe.
Officials close to negotiations have also reported that Russia has tried to physically block EU monitors, sent to both countries to monitor gas flows.
"Russia played a trick by saying it would resume supply. Russia set this up to convince everyone it is the Ukraine's fault not their own," said a European source.
As the East-West crisis entered its second week, Russia's prime minister, Vladimir Putin, claimed that EU unity might be about to crumble as Bulgaria and Slovakia, both badly hit by energy shortages, will on Wednesday break ranks with the EU to open direct negotiations with Russia.
[snip]
Ukraine's Western-leaning government, which faces deep Russian hostility to its ambitions to join Nato, has begun to feel the effects of the dispute.
A poll released on Tuesday found that President Viktor Yushchenko's approval rating stands at just 2.4 per cent.
"Each person living in Ukraine should understand that what has happened is not the blackmail of our state, it is the blackmail of each of you," said Mr Yushchenko.
The Ukrainian opposition, supported by Russia, has called for Mr Yushchenko's impeachment, and for the dismissal of the government led by Yulia Tymoshenko, the prime minister.
Russia accused of playing 'trick' as gas turned off again - Telegraph
ew thread
Aldi is going to return the favor to WalMart and expand into America.
Wow. Keep in mind they also own Trader Joe's so they can move quickly.
Cheaper than WalMart in a depression, very interesting
Energyecon,
Maybe Russia has run out of gas.
Can't get blood from a stone.
AS,
Ummm, no...
emo-
you know I almost typed out just CPI but did'nt bother to look....my bad...
Stand corrected
They still make a lousy investment either way.
Ciao
MS
interestingly ung has had an exceptionally crappy month - i'm sure the russians find this frustrating
Inflation, inflation, where art thou?
Milk prices were over $20 per hundredweight, or per hundred pounds, at the start of 2008 and finished the year flirting with the $10 level, the Western Milling Weekly Feed and Dairy Newsletter recently noted.
Too bad these stats are meaningless when propped up on printed money. It's a waste of your time CR.
So your salary remains the same, everything imported will rise in price and local asset values will continue to drop or stay flat.
Interesting Times | 01.13.09 - 2:59 pm | #
Sound like a good reason to bring jobs back to the US! Let's do it boys and girls!
OT- FYI:
Kristallnacht (German pronunciation: [kʁɪsˈtalˌnaxt]; literally "Crystal night") or the Night of Broken Glass, was a pogrom in Nazi Germany on November 910, 1938. On a single night, 91 Jews were murdered and 25,00030,000 were arrested and deported to concentration camps.[1][2] It is often called Novemberpogrom or Reichspogromnacht in German.
The Nazis coordinated an attack on Jewish people and their property in Germany and German-controlled lands as a part of Führer Adolf Hitler's anti-Semitic policy.[3]
The consequences of this violence were disastrous for the Jews under the Third Reich. In a single night, Kristallnacht saw the destruction of more than 200 synagogues and the ransacking of thousands of Jewish businesses and homes. It marked the beginning of the systematic eradication of a people who could trace their ancestry in Germany to Ancient Rome and served as a prelude to the Holocaust that was to follow.[4][5]
Kristallnacht - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
otishertz: bless you , this blog has comments that have gone : git your gun,stock up on canned goods and go hide in the hills. I may suggest that when you head to the hills leave your laptop behind.
"Sebastian's back'"
DOW must be up 300 today. Isn't this the same "no recession wright model B perma-bull" guy that claimed he only lost 10 percent in 2008 when the S&P was down some 40 percent?
By the way, the Eagles are going to beat the Giants and the Cardinals are going going to beat the Panthers.
Dave of SV writes:
...OT- FYI: Kristallnacht...
Correct, but what's the context here?
I hope it's not a rebuttal of my answer to joe shmoe :
Werner | 01.13.09 - 2:36 pm | #
HaloScan.com - Comments
So, what's the context?
Down 25 is really up!!
the context was that on the previous thread, someone thought no one was killed during Kristallnacht, and it seemed like the implication (at least to me) was that it wasn't a big deal. So I posted the above write-up from Wikipedia to inform those not familiar with Kristallnacht that during "Crystal Night" 25 thousand innocent people were rounded up by the Nazi's and ultimately (the great majority) killed in concentration camps.
"By these indicators, the Fed is making progress."
Just like new wall-paper on a badly cracked wall. Real progress.
otishertz | 01.13.09 - 2:31 pm | #
Valid observations. Message was correct but tone took some work to see through. Hope you keep posting.
Good post. I'll be mentioning this on my blog tonight.
Dave of SV writes:
...the context was that on the previous thread, someone thought no one was killed during Kristallnacht,...
Yes, I see. I was involved in that thread and reprimanded joe shmoe for his "The Riechstag Fire was the pre-text that open the path to concentration camps and then to war in Europe". A statement which is factually wrong and where he went overboard.(see : Werner | 01.13.09 - 2:36 pm | #).
But I see there was also :
..mal writes: Reichstag Fire? That was burning and no killing, right? The problem with Kristallnacht was not killing (I don't think anyone was killed, actually). The problem is that it was violence directed specifically against Jewish owned business...
and your pointing out the truth about the Kristallnacht is absolutely correct. The statement :"I don't think anyone was killed, actually" definitely is wrong.
But I think the (WIKIPEDIA statement): "It marked the beginning of the systematic eradication..." is, as I understand Raul Hilberg also wrong, since he explained that (and how) the systematic eradication came about in '41 ! (so, not in '38!). Before '41, the Nazies did not try to systematically eradicate the Jews but tried to emigrate them:
a) there was in '38 a conference in Évian (widely unknown/supressed by political propagand see : Évian Conference) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
where (as the german WIKIPEDIA version says it better, the english version hides/obfuscates it) "Vertreter von 32 Nationen trafen sich auf Initiative des amerikanischen Präsidenten Franklin D. Roosevelt, um die Möglichkeiten der Auswanderung von Juden aus Deutschland und Österreich zu verbessern".(Representatives of 32 nations meet ... to explore ways to improve the emmigration- possibilities/ -capabilities of Jews from Germany and Austria). The upshot is, the Germans wanted their Jews to emigrate, but all these 32 countries did not want to take the Jews. Goebels apparently gloated "Germany offerd her Jews to the world and nobody wanted them" implying the rest of the world also considered the Jews as a problem!
b) after the failure in Évian, the Nazies tried to emigrate the Jews to Madagaskar. (Even A.Eichmann was involved!) And only after that went down the tubes because Germany could not subdue Great Britain (and it's dominance at see) the Nazies contemplated (in/during '41 !) the systematic eradication of the Jews.
It is a sad and profound subject, but it is also sad that the actual facts are widely unknown and are supplanted by propaganda!
I only can recomment/advice people to consult the most preeminent Holocaust researcher Raul Hilberg!
Here again a link to a one hour presentation of him about this subject (albeit only in German) : Video: Rückblick auf die Holocaustforschung - Geschichte und Erinnerung
Mustard Seeds?
I see mushroom spores of hope spread all over...
I agree with 1 currency soon [yogi] on this: the Fed has substituted Fed guarantees for private guarantees... so its that really 'progress'?
If banks cannot return to solvency - which is going to be difficult if they have no profitable businesses to loan to and if they are getting loans rather than gifts from governments - then the whole problem is simply moved down the road a few months.
I wonder if we aren't in sort of a "phony war" period here.