14Jan09 RTRS-NORTEL SAYS HAS MORE THAN $1 BILLION OF BOTH ASSETS AND LIABILITIES
14:28 14Jan09 RTRS-BRIEF-Nortel Networks files for bankruptcy protection in U.S.
Jan 14 (Reuters) - Nortel Networks Corp and various affiliates filed for bankruptcy protection in the United States: * Nortel files for court protection with U.S. bankruptcy court in Delaware * More than one dozen Nortel affiliates file for chapter 11 protection * Five Nortel entities, including Nortel Networks Corp , file for Chapter 15 protection * Nortel says has more than $1 billion of both assets and liabilities
14Jan09 RTRS-NORTEL SAYS HAS MORE THAN $1 BILLION OF BOTH ASSETS AND LIABILITIES
14:28 14Jan09 RTRS-BRIEF-Nortel Networks files for bankruptcy protection in U.S.
Jan 14 (Reuters) - Nortel Networks Corp and various affiliates filed for bankruptcy protection in the United States: * Nortel files for court protection with U.S. bankruptcy court in Delaware * More than one dozen Nortel affiliates file for chapter 11 protection * Five Nortel entities, including Nortel Networks Corp , file for Chapter 15 protection * Nortel says has more than $1 billion of both assets and liabilities
Vikkie | 01.14.09 - 8:53 am | #
Someone smarter than me will explain, but this should echo throughout our communications infrastructure. These guys were not a minor player. Wow.
14Jan09 RTRS-UPDATE 1-Gottschalks files for bankruptcy protection
CHICAGO, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Regional department store chain Gottschalks Inc said on Wednesday that it had filed to reorganize under bankruptcy protection, becoming the latest retailer to seek to restructure amid the recession.
The Fresno, California-based company said it had negotiated $125 million in debtor-in-possession financing from a group of lenders led by GE Capital, a unit of General Electric Co .
Gottschalks plans to pursue options that include the possible sale of the company or another transaction, it said.
The company will conduct business as usual during the process, its chief executive said in a statement.
Gottschalks' principal bankruptcy attorneys are O'Melveny & Myers LLP and Richards, Layton & Finger, and its financial adviser is FTI Consulting. Its investment bank is Financo, and its claims agent is Kurtzman Carson Consultants.
We need, immediately, the CARP. The Consumer Assigned Retail Program will be a $4,000 US Government Gift Card that can only be spent at non-food Retailers.
This clever program will save the consumer and shall be offered twice a year until things recover.
This is going to be the death of the strip malls in my area. What are their anchors? Staples, Office Depot, Bed Bath and Beyond, Linens and Things.
When they go, which they will, I have noticed the rest of the stores gradually die off. Or you have a strip mall with a free standing Curcuit City type. Throw in a few fast foods and a gas station and you have the typical outer burb strip mall.
Since everybody in the world is contracting at once, and since we need one country to be strong to pull us all out of this mess, and since China ain't gonna do it, I have the Bruce in Tennessee solution:
Take tarp funds from all the various countries and give them to Paraguay, and let them lead us out!
Yeah...I'm too busy looking at the pension implosion now to care about this. Though I, as well as many here saw the retail thing moons ago, the pension thing is much bigger.
I was reading last night that Chrysler has a 2 hour inventory on hand. I am sure the other two also run similar inventory. Considering how much they are building ( all of their suppliers are idle.
Jeebus, in about a month the ripple effect of all this is going to be fugly.
Lost a generation of investors.
Gonna last forever...Davidowitz says 21 major retailers bankrupt. Consumer behavior changed for good.
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=adviser&T=Davidowitz%20Says%20Consumer%20Behavior%20Is%20%60Changed%20Forever'&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/v8lOMexyOW9w.asf
Insurance doesn't figure into...although they're likely to eat sh*t for similar reasons (annuity problems..benefit/asset time fram mismatch, etc), but to "play" pensions...it's a bit late. You'd need to find firms with defined beni plans...like autos..and short them.
Comrade Misean is Dope | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 9:13 am | #
Ah, but this is HUMAN panic, a function not of the inexorable laws of nature but rather the inexorable nature of people...I think we are just getting out of the warmup box on panic solutions.
I wonder how China's export numbers are looking? Based on the shipping news, the Baltic index, and retail sales, they not going to be happy with how life has turned out for them.
That is the single worst chart I have ever seen. I have been WAY too positive (this coming from someone that is about 20% in stocks, 10% bought late last year).
""nova(Unrated) writes: \tThis is going to be the death of the strip malls in my area."" Frankly, almost nothing would please me more, personally... we all complain about strip mall 'culture', but no one does anything about it. Now, we'll have to do something with all that empty mall space.... and we can invest in something that makes long term sense. I mean, strip malls are convenient, but they do nothing for a neighborhood, cultually.
This is no big deal, so long as the bomb building business is going strong. If you can't buy, you can still bomb. It's best to buy and bomb, but 1 out of 2 isn't a complete loss. Bombs Away!!
Yep. China data posted back a few weeks ago - one analyst who predicted 4Q? 1Q? outright contraction in China - and the electric power stats that showed declining power generation...
Last month I indicated to a Chinese manufacturer that retail sales in the U.S. sales were likely to take beating post holidays and not recover for many moons. Tapped out consumers, too much bricks and mortar, too much debt.
He said for this item his factory can match any price and buyers have to go somewhere.
Told him slow sales in the stores, so forecasts slashed and buyers not coming.
He asked whether "more advertising" would fix it.
It's hard for some makers to realize that no body gets the order.
I have been WAY too positive (this coming from someone that is about 20% in stocks, 10% bought late last year).
OnlineBrokerReview | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 9:22 am | #
Paraphrasing Dr. Phil: How's that working for you?
Thanks. The ripple effect from the US retail implosion is going to be trully amazing. The UK is going to be on sale this summer. Spain? The numbers in that post Anak for Taiwan were incredible.
Even someone like me understands that Yes! Now is the time to panic!!!!!!!!
When they go, which they will, I have noticed the rest of the stores gradually die off. Or you have a strip mall with a free standing Curcuit City type. Throw in a few fast foods and a gas station and you have the typical outer burb strip mall.
nova | 01.14.09 - 9:06 am | #
Linens and Things already gone. They are liquidating their stores as we speak.
Obama...oops, sorry, Osama bin Laden released a tape for the first time in 9 months. Slacker. He indicated he will be moving to a gated community in Dallas called Preston Hollow. A reputable builder has crafted a 10,000 sq ft cave complete with an IED Cellar and a built in Dialysis machine. Current residents are anxiously awaiting his arrival.
Even someone like me understands that Yes! Now is the time to panic!
Manufacturers have fixed costs that most Americans (dryfly types excluded) forgot about a long time ago.
You don't panic, you just don't come back after the Chinese NY holidays. Any workers who do can sell off the WIP inventory and company car, divvy it up among themselves.
what is your favorite pick for a small town in the US where it's a close knit community, slower pace but higher quality of life, neighbors know each other, good farming land, relatively nice weather, no keep-up-with-the-jonses mentality, good schools, humble, honest, hard-working people that don't take short cuts and have great pride in their work, good place to raise kids, a place where there is a town center or main street that is a meeting place for the community, people are actively involved in community management, etc, etc. i lived in europe and found many places like that but i'm not sure where it's like that in america. help.....i wanna get out of this rat race.
You are right about this being the largest y/y drop on record. Your chart only goes back to 1992, probably for the reason that the series is discontinuous at that point. However, the old series is maintained from 1969 through 2005 (on Economagic, anyhow), and the biggest nominal y/y decline was around 2.5%. I'd guess you know that, but it may be worth letting your readers know that when you say "worst on record" you aren't just talking about a 2 decade long record. The nominal y/y drop is about 3 times larger than any other period since the 1960s.
Another bright of this New York for example is going to look like giant greenhouse in which everybody and his dog are trying to grow tomatoes and potatoes on their balconies. Eco friggin City by accident!
a little perspective- eliminate MEW and push the savings rate back up to about 8% and that is about a 12% decline in consumer spending. Throw in the increase in unemployment that gets to about 16%. So depending on how you want to look at things- (a) this should not be worrying since it is completely explainable and we are about 2/3 way through the primary adjustment (b) while the river is closing to cresting up stream watch out down stream.
Anak: I didn't want to come right out and say it, but he should think in terms of the Clampett clan:-).
Any way you cut it, dropping out offers many options. I did it in Oregon years ago. The one fact to remember is that there is not a lot of velocity in the money in these places, they tend to be clannish (not restricted to the South BTW), and one must make one's own way financially. Other than that, some fabulous places to be in CONUS.
I second the upper midwest. it's freezing in winter (especially this winter). but the people are pretty tight knit, often times even in the cities (like here in Minneapolis).
Plenty of places, think southern Arkansas, southeast Missouri, Eestern Oklahoma, west Kansas.
Ugh ... can't speak to KS or OK, but I did a stint in southern Arkansas in my 20's. No thanks. Fails the "higher quality of life" requirement miserably IMO.
Personally I'd look somewhere along the Blue Ridge - western VA or NC, maybe. Lots of the benefits of the upper Midwest with a lot better climate. Asheville, NC isn't really a "small town" but it has all the other qualities you mention, in spades. One of my favorite places on Earth (but then again, I'm not really a small-town kind of guy).
Also quite a few college towns along this path - this can be a plus or a minus depending on personal preference of course, but if nothing else they're typically vibrant and tend to be local job hubs. Places like Johnson City, Roanoke, Harrisonburg, etc.
I'm a native East Coaster but I'm sure there are just as many places in the Rockies that would fit the bill as well, probably even better if you're as much the outdoors type as CR.
It is great to check out of the rat race and buy down in a real estate market. I suggest you bring your own income and not depend on a job. Locals are real scared of outsiders.
I grew up in a suburb of Rochester, NY. Weather is awful for 3 - 4 months of the year but has everything else you asked for. Canandaigua, Victor, Pittsford, Brighton, Fairport (all southeast suburbs) have decent village centers and not too long to drive to City of Rochester. Cost of living is quite low. Saw a 5BR, 4BA Victorian on East Ave (east of the City, a "ritzy" address) for $250k.
very familiar with Rochester, did my MBA at U of Rochester, loved the area but the weather not to my liking....LOVED Wegmans, no chain like it here in colorado.
YoY comaprisons are not as meaningful since we have been a slide for many months. Only good for drama. Also doesn't take into effect deflationary period we are in. However, let the mud slinging continue.Hopefully we will get back to real economic analysis at this site. Time to look forward.
When they go, which they will, I have noticed the rest of the stores gradually die off. Or you have a strip mall with a free standing Curcuit City type. Throw in a few fast foods and a gas station and you have the typical outer burb strip mall. \t nova | \t \t \t \t01.14.09 - 9:06 am | #
That happened here in the early '90s, but they came back. I don't believe that America is willing to give up life in suburbia. They'll just postpone it for awhile.
Your estimate of the real decline in retail sales must be wrong, and by a long way. Go back and look at the Census Bureau numbers again. Half of the nominal decline in retail sales from 11/08 to 12/08 was a fall in gasoline sales. And we know the fall in gasoline sales was a pricing effect. Strip that out and it looks to me like the real decline in retail sales was about -1.4% mom (5.6% yoy). And it may be even less than that when we have the December inflation numbers.
Mook(Unrated) writes: \t..... Personally I'd look somewhere along the Blue Ridge - western VA or NC, maybe. Lots of the benefits of the upper Midwest with a lot better climate. Asheville, NC isn't really a "small town" but it has all the other qualities you mention, in spades. One of my favorite places on Earth (but then again, I'm not really a small-town kind of guy). Mook | 01.14.09 - 9:57 am | #
The area around Charolettesville, VA is beautiful, especially up in the hill overlooking it.
Top Stories
Stocks Sink After Retail Sales Report- AP
Wall Street's anxiety about the economy and the health of the banking industry is sending stocks down sharply in early trading. The Commerce Department has reported that retail sales fell twice as much as expected during December. Investors were already well aware that consumers have curtailed their spending, but the data still came as an unpleasant surprise.
I love how they smooth it over as an "unpleasant surprise". It's a fucking disaster! The fact that the stock market is only down 200 points is absolute evidence that it's rigged.
xxxxx writes:
The area around Charolettesville, VA is beautiful, especially up in the hill overlooking it.
xxxxx | 01.14.09 - 10:18 am | #
I lived in Charlottesville, VA for 3 years, and I loved it there. The only problem is that the real estate in CV is outrageously expensive. In 3 years from 1996-1999 the rents went up 30%. Also, there aren't many places to earn a decent living there, unless you're a selected Professor or a lawyer.
The following points of opinion may be of interest:
1.
The consumer binge in the US is over. Today's data will be repeated -- another leg down, and then another -- until we are no longer surprised. Game over.
2.
Countries without widespread consumerism will fare better than the US throughout this global crisis. They don't have the burden of massive debt to fund imports of useless merchandise.
3.
People in the US use shopping as stress relief. The 'stress/anxiety' graph is rising; the 'locations to buy useless baubles' graph is sinking. The spread leads to a cultural crsisi.
the man from nantucket(Unrated) writes: \twhat is your favorite pick for a small town in the US where it's a close knit community the man from nantucket | 01.14.09 - 9:37 am | #
Franklin, TN springs to mind. Although there is a keep-up with the Jones's mentality there, somewhat. Loudon, TN or any number of the small, rural towns in the eastern half of that State might fit the bill.
the man from nantucket(Excellent) writes: i lived in europe and found many places like that but i'm not sure where it's like that in america. help.....i wanna get out of this rat race.
Pittsburgh. Natural fortress region with awesome, tight-knit communities. Strategic river locale, large coal deposits.
Its problem is it's got a badly managed region, but that's about to go spectacularly bankrupt, so at least it won't bother you too much, which is a good thing, because the regional institutions are of dazzlingly poor quality.
Economic activity is a sub-par but then again, how much of the external comps were fraud or fluff?
Obama can't fix demographics, which underlies all economic cycles. As hard as he tries to fight it, he won't win. By fighting natural economic cycles, he will only make it worse for the majority while protecting the rich minority. It will be more of the same- just a new face overseeing it. We know that TARP doesn't work, but he's still calling for more. People- especially liberal women are so cock-whipped by this "black" man. Barbara Walters and Oprah cream themselves every time they interview him. It's absolutely sickening. He has no executive experience whatsoever. Besides balancing a budget at home, he's never balanced a government budget in his life. He puts on a good show, I'll give him that.
Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Tiffany & Co., the worlds second- largest luxury-jewelry retailer, said holiday sales fell 21 percent as wealthy consumers reduced spending amid the global financial crisis. The chain cut its annual earnings forecast.
Try Staunton, VA. Big boxes (except Walmart) passed it by. Downtown still intact with all locally-owned restaurants, bars. Diverse economy with agriculture & manufacturing. Vibrant local music scene. Affordable real estate. Live downtown and walk to local theatres, cinema etc.
Not too many of you, though.
@ Mook 9:57 am | # writes:
...Personally I'd look somewhere along the Blue Ridge ...Asheville, NC isn't really a "small town" but it has all the other qualities you mention, in spades. One of my favorite places on Earth...
Here in Asheville, we & the county & chunks of the region experienced horrifically unsustainable real estate & land speculation and bubbles. Worse, in Asheville Metro, in 2005 at the height of the prosperity bubbles, median salaries stayed low, only 15K adults out of 166K working adults were in jobs that paid a median salary of $50K. Yet median house prices in the city hit $250K, often just for a 70 y.o. 1,000 SF frame hse. The now deflating bubble, plus Autumn's 3-week gasoline cut-off, and lack of salary growth, is both traumatizing folks and also sending em into a deep-freeze state-of-denial that is painful to watch or encounter.
Nantucket, Volker, Anak, Moot: Perhaps all who seek 'nirvana' community may be attempting destination-less & endless journeys.
Such community may have to be created 1 person at a time in the places we already reside in.
citizen ee,
If you're out there, I owe you a hat tip. Your link to the Hubbert paper at your site was very worthwhile. While I don't agree with all of his conclusion regarding solutions, the paper's data and analysis seemed sound to me. Well worth a read...
Michael Tehan 01.14.09 - 10:14 am writes:
Your estimate of the real decline in retail sales must be wrong... Half of the nominal decline in retail sales from 11/08 to 12/08 was a fall in gasoline sales...a pricing effect. Strip that out and it looks to me like the real decline in retail sales was about -1.4% mom (5.6% yoy). And it may be even less than that when we have the December inflation numbers.
As u note, CR wasn't focused on MOM declines in his post. Can you share ur data and ources on how u came up with 5.6% yoy? Thanks.
January 14, 2009: The curve has flattened further, narrowing to 148.3 on the 2-10-yr yield spread and back to late Dec levels on the 3-mo-10-yr.
December 9, 2008 The Treasury Department said it sold $30 billion in four-week bills at an interest rate of zero percent. That meant investors were willing to earn no return at all on their money as long as they could park it in the safety of Treasury securities.
The rate was down from an interest rate of 0.04 percent at last week's government auction of four-week bills.
January 6, 2009: And the yield on the 3-month Treasury bill rallied to 0.15% from 0.09% late Monday. The 3-month Treasury bill is considered a gauge of confidence because investors shuffle funds in and out of the note as they assess the risk of the marketplace.
Jan 14: Importantly, US 3-month Treasury Bills have started making their way higher to 0.12% after momentarily trading in negative territory in December 2008, as nervous investors were in desperate search of safety. Credit Crisis Watch: Banks Still Fragile-Minyanville
On Wednesday (January 14) the government is set to auction $30 billion of cash management bills. Already this week, the Treasury has auctioned $22 billion worth of 52-week bills, $24 billion worth of 4-week bills, $26 billion worth of 13-week bills and $27 billion worth of 26-week debt.
Toward the end of 2008, government debt prices reached record heights and yields sank to record lows. The recession and the plummeting stock markets resulted in a record demand for government debt, which are perceived by most investors as the safest asset class in times of market turmoil.
And the yield on the 3-month Treasury bill held unchanged at 0.12%. The yield on the shorter term note fluctuates with the confidence in the marketplace. As investors shy away from other, riskier parts of the market, they move their funds into the short-term bill, sending the price higher and yield lower.
@ Mook 9:57 am | # writes:
...Personally I'd look somewhere along the Blue Ridge ...Asheville, NC isn't really a "small town" but it has all the other qualities you mention, in spades. One of my favorite places on Earth...
Here in Asheville, we & the county & chunks of the region experienced horrifically unsustainable real estate & land speculation and bubbles. Worse, in Asheville Metro, in 2005 at the height of the prosperity bubbles, median salaries stayed low, only 15K adults out of 166K working adults were in jobs that paid a median salary of $50K. Yet median house prices in the city hit $250K, often just for a 70 y.o. 1,000 SF frame hse. The now deflating bubble, plus Autumn's 3-week gasoline cut-off, and lack of salary growth, is both traumatizing folks and also sending em into a deep-freeze state-of-denial that is painful to watch or encounter.
Nantucket, Volker, Anak, Moot: Perhaps all who seek 'nirvana' community may be attempting destination-less & endless journeys.
Such community may have to be created 1 person at a time in the places we already reside in.
Avl Dao | 01.14.09 - 11:54 am |
I was tempted to joke that Lake Woebegon might be a good place. I had some nice experiences in Staunton, VA as well. But I note that many of the things you noted
"what is your favorite pick for a small town in the US where it's a close knit community, slower pace but higher quality of life, neighbors know each other, good farming land, relatively nice weather, no keep-up-with-the-jonses mentality, good schools, humble, honest, hard-working people that don't take short cuts and have great pride in their work, good place to raise kids, a place where there is a town center or main street that is a meeting place for the community, people are actively involved in community management, etc, etc"
have to do with what other people give TO you.
To build on AVLDAO's question-- what are you willing to give back? Perhaps if you become the change you'd like to see, you can change the culture where you live. In fact, I know that's so. Might you press for a community center, help teach others civic skills, and otherwise build social capital?
One problem that Asheville and like places face is those who come in and want to free-ride: they want to live in a downtown luxury condo, not participate (except to drive out the "dregs") and then wonder why the town is growing less vital & interesting. And ugly, as more condos spring up.
Also, you left off future water supply in your list: As warming grows, water will become more problematic.
I asked (I think might be previous thread).... how do I play the pension implosion? Short insurers, or is there a better route?
Eric | 01.14.09 - 9:12 am |
Stay healthy as you won't be able to afford retirement until you are about 127 years old.
Lighten up on Obama and how bad he will do. Look how well the MBA pres did and remember the Republicans were all set to give us a soccer mom who didn't know the difference between a continent and an country.
Last year of Clinton--up 10%, last year of Bush--down 10%.
the man fron nantucket, look no further than a hop, skip and a jump away from your namesake to Provincetown, Mass. The tip of Cape Cod: "The End of the World."
Nearly every quality you stated is taken for granted here; and you may take it as a plus or minus that life often feels, if not like a Warner Bros. sound stage circa 1953 as another poster posited, very much like a 20th Century Fox soundtage circa 1957 ("Peyton Place"); crossed with a Warner Bros. soundstage circa 1959 ("A Summer Place.")
For as in both movies, this is a stunningly beatufiul New England town full up high standards and low secrets and too much gossip. But hey, that's life.
Anyway, we treat each other a little better than do people in the big cities where I spent my youth. Our politics are liberal (yet our morals are surprisingly uptight, given our its rep as a tourist party town).
Our high school's declining enrollment means that it is not long for the world; but otherwise this is a great place to raise children, especially for gay and lesbian families.
Our town, beaches and woods are pristine enough to gloat about; and our outrageous home prices will likely fall here more than most other places. By and large, they've already taken a 25% haircut.
One big drawback: you had better be comfortably retired and/or reconciled to $12/hr. seasonal jobs, for tourism is our sole industry.
I fall in the latter boat, but even at one-tenth my former salary I'll never go back to the real world if I can help it. Never!
BTW to give you an idea of what we're about in the original context of this thread:
*The nearest fast-food restaurant, a Wendy's, is a 40-minute drive away. (Orleans, MA)
*So, too, the nearest Staples.
*The nearest McDonald's is an hour away, in Hyannis. Ditto Wal-MArt, Home Depot, etc.
*Boston/Providence are 2.5 hours by car, yet Boston only 20 minutes by air (we have one carrier, Cape Air, that flies several times a day in winter; summer ferry service = 1.5 hrs. to Boston).
Somebody may have made this point before, but the PCE price index or even the CPI price index is NOT the right price index to use when deflating retail sales. The CPI has a large housing cost component and the PCE has a large housing cost component and medical cost component in it, all things that aren't in retail sales. This is not a small error with energy prices doing what they are doing.
I just used the data in the census bureau report and backed out the gasoline numbers. Looking at it again I think I made a slip because I now get the nominal decline in retail sales (ex-gasoline) at 1.4% mom and 6.7% yoy. All the same, there's just no way you can get to a real decline of over 11%.
As has been pointed out above, i think the problem is you are using the wrong deflator. Gasoline sales are about 8% of retail sales and have declined 36% yoy, almost all of this being due to price, and that alone suggests that the yoy deflator for December 2008 must almost certainly be negative.
As investors shy away from other, riskier parts of the market, they move their funds into the short-term bill, sending the price higher and yield lower.
WTF is going on now? | 01.14.09 - 12:45 pm | #
whom they sell their other assets to and where did the buyer get the money? I find these comments about money moving completely absurd. For every buyer there is a seller- there is no net money change. All that has happened is that peoples valuations changed.
First? Wow
All priced in?
slip sliding away
AND not about to turn around anytime soon. In fact likely to deteriorate further over the coming months as the unemployment figures worsen.
14Jan09 RTRS-NORTEL SAYS HAS MORE THAN $1 BILLION OF BOTH ASSETS AND LIABILITIES
14:28 14Jan09 RTRS-BRIEF-Nortel Networks files for bankruptcy protection in U.S.
Jan 14 (Reuters) - Nortel Networks Corp and various affiliates filed for bankruptcy protection in the United States: * Nortel files for court protection with U.S. bankruptcy court in Delaware * More than one dozen Nortel affiliates file for chapter 11 protection * Five Nortel entities, including Nortel Networks Corp , file for Chapter 15 protection * Nortel says has more than $1 billion of both assets and liabilities
Sure this look bad - BUT what was the drop in the 1970 crisis? 20 %? 30 %?
A 10 % fall is nothing!
Digg this:
..[snip]...
Paris Hilton: Billions and billions served. (McDonalds)
Scarlett Johansson: The best a man can get. (Gillette)
Heather Mills: One leg at a time. (Dockers)
..[snip]..
Company Mottos | Systemically Important
Or just check out the hot picture of Scarlett...
the downward spiral
retail sales collapse
sales tax collapse
states cut revenue...
retail sales have now fallen 6 months in a row. tomorrow is the earnings report for a good many banks...should be interesting Friday.
2009 Event Calendar, Stock Upgrade and Downgrade Online Information - CNBC.com
Events Calendar
1990s Nortel & Lucent = 2000s GS, MS, BSC, LEH, MER.
Same old story.
I love the smell of gloom and doom first thing in the morning...smells like victory.
14Jan09 RTRS-NORTEL SAYS HAS MORE THAN $1 BILLION OF BOTH ASSETS AND LIABILITIES
14:28 14Jan09 RTRS-BRIEF-Nortel Networks files for bankruptcy protection in U.S.
Jan 14 (Reuters) - Nortel Networks Corp and various affiliates filed for bankruptcy protection in the United States: * Nortel files for court protection with U.S. bankruptcy court in Delaware * More than one dozen Nortel affiliates file for chapter 11 protection * Five Nortel entities, including Nortel Networks Corp , file for Chapter 15 protection * Nortel says has more than $1 billion of both assets and liabilities
Vikkie | 01.14.09 - 8:53 am | #
Someone smarter than me will explain, but this should echo throughout our communications infrastructure. These guys were not a minor player. Wow.
Someone smarter than me will explain, but this should echo throughout our communications infrastructure.
You mean Ivan Seidenberg multi-billion bet for Fios isn't going to look too smart in the face of 10% unemployment?
The majority in America are broke.
Swindled out of their hard work by wall street, poor corporate management, the fed and lawmakers.
Is it any wonder our sham eCONomy is collapsing.
14Jan09 RTRS-UPDATE 1-Gottschalks files for bankruptcy protection
CHICAGO, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Regional department store chain Gottschalks Inc said on Wednesday that it had filed to reorganize under bankruptcy protection, becoming the latest retailer to seek to restructure amid the recession.
The Fresno, California-based company said it had negotiated $125 million in debtor-in-possession financing from a group of lenders led by GE Capital, a unit of General Electric Co .
Gottschalks plans to pursue options that include the possible sale of the company or another transaction, it said.
The company will conduct business as usual during the process, its chief executive said in a statement.
Gottschalks' principal bankruptcy attorneys are O'Melveny & Myers LLP and Richards, Layton & Finger, and its financial adviser is FTI Consulting. Its investment bank is Financo, and its claims agent is Kurtzman Carson Consultants.
Let's wait until Feb-March which should be DOW at 8000 and the realization that yes, it could fall much much further.
Dear Mr. Market,
You in fact have not priced "this" in yet.
FU.
--bh
It makes me wonder if they didnt create the commodity bubble for the sole purpose of fudging the annual numbers.
1st half of 2008 = inflated
2nd half of 2008 = abysmal
total 2008 = not so bad
(thats what J6P investor is supposed to think anyway)
Question is, will it work? Will the market rally without realizing that Jan-July this year is going to put out some of the worst YoY numbers?
this is just a beginning of REALLY NASTY years to come... time to payback... future became reality..
We need, immediately, the CARP. The Consumer Assigned Retail Program will be a $4,000 US Government Gift Card that can only be spent at non-food Retailers.
This clever program will save the consumer and shall be offered twice a year until things recover.
Paulson, do you hear me?
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Bond bubble is accident waiting to happen | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee
Ambrose is at it again. Has he been wrong so far?
BTW: the 30 year has a two handle and the ten year is edging closer to two flat and maybe (ya think!) headed to one.
SP500 will test 400-450 level this year.
Iconoclast421,
On that note of course, historically the worst performance for the market is Q4.
Should be an interesting 2010 Q1.
--bh
Art Cashin sounded grim just now.
I love the smell of gloom and doom first thing in the morning...smells like victory.
take a name ass wipe | 01.14.09 - 8:56 am | #
Gotta long way to go before 4pm today.
This is going to be the death of the strip malls in my area. What are their anchors? Staples, Office Depot, Bed Bath and Beyond, Linens and Things.
When they go, which they will, I have noticed the rest of the stores gradually die off. Or you have a strip mall with a free standing Curcuit City type. Throw in a few fast foods and a gas station and you have the typical outer burb strip mall.
Nuts,
"BUT what was the drop in the 1970 crisis? 20 %? 30 %?"
Ermmm...no...not even close.
Really, this stuff is easy to find.
I'll let you calculate it...but I'll help...export the table as delimited text and import into your favorite spread sheet.
US Retail Sales, Retail Sales, Total; adjusted; millions of dollars
Nostrovia,
I'll let you calculate it...
Comrade Misean is Dope | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 9:07 am | #
The dreaded "left as an exercise for the reader".
ugh--what the hell do all those acronyms mean, again?
Since everybody in the world is contracting at once, and since we need one country to be strong to pull us all out of this mess, and since China ain't gonna do it, I have the Bruce in Tennessee solution:
Take tarp funds from all the various countries and give them to Paraguay, and let them lead us out!
adjusted for deflation Retail sales are actually higher
ugh--what the hell do all those acronyms mean, again?
I Believe CR and Krugman | 01.14.09 - 9:09 am | #
BOHICA..... bend over, here it comes again.
This is going to create a frenzy of panic solutions that make things worse.
Eric,
Yeah...I'm too busy looking at the pension implosion now to care about this. Though I, as well as many here saw the retail thing moons ago, the pension thing is much bigger.
Nostrovia,
I was reading last night that Chrysler has a 2 hour inventory on hand. I am sure the other two also run similar inventory. Considering how much they are building (
all of their suppliers are idle.
Jeebus, in about a month the ripple effect of all this is going to be fugly.
the pension thing is much bigger.
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 9:10 am | #
We are living in the time of giants. Where's our shepherd boy when we need him?
Lost a generation of investors.
Gonna last forever...Davidowitz says 21 major retailers bankrupt. Consumer behavior changed for good.
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=adviser&T=Davidowitz%20Says%20Consumer%20Behavior%20Is%20%60Changed%20Forever'&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/v8lOMexyOW9w.asf
Yeah...I'm too busy looking at the pension implosion now to care about this.
Comrade Misean is Dope | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 9:10 am | #
I asked (I think might be previous thread).... how do I play the pension implosion? Short insurers, or is there a better route?
ac,
"This is going to create a frenzy of panic solutions that make things worse."
Again, but that trick never works.
Honestly though, isn't there some sort of thermal dynamic law that puts a limit on panic frenzy, and haven't the PTB already pushed up against it?
Just musing...
Nostrovia,
Oh, and looks like we finally "beat" (cough) a whisper number with the retail sales data.
From Yves
"Bernanke an Expert on the Great Depression??"
(apparently not) link
Eric,
Insurance doesn't figure into...although they're likely to eat sh*t for similar reasons (annuity problems..benefit/asset time fram mismatch, etc), but to "play" pensions...it's a bit late. You'd need to find firms with defined beni plans...like autos..and short them.
Like I said, a bit late for that.
Nostrovia,
You have... fifteen minutes... to reach minimum safe distance.
It's a bit late to do much other than wait it out. 150 (m/l) on the S&P is not out of the question.
Comrade Misean is Dope | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 9:13 am | #
Ah, but this is HUMAN panic, a function not of the inexorable laws of nature but rather the inexorable nature of people...I think we are just getting out of the warmup box on panic solutions.
I wonder how China's export numbers are looking? Based on the shipping news, the Baltic index, and retail sales, they not going to be happy with how life has turned out for them.
energy,
"but this is HUMAN panic"
Excellent point, my friend.
Nostrovia,
That is the single worst chart I have ever seen. I have been WAY too positive (this coming from someone that is about 20% in stocks, 10% bought late last year).
""nova(Unrated) writes:
\tThis is going to be the death of the strip malls in my area."" Frankly, almost nothing would please me more, personally... we all complain about strip mall 'culture', but no one does anything about it. Now, we'll have to do something with all that empty mall space.... and we can invest in something that makes long term sense. I mean, strip malls are convenient, but they do nothing for a neighborhood, cultually.
This is no big deal, so long as the bomb building business is going strong. If you can't buy, you can still bomb. It's best to buy and bomb, but 1 out of 2 isn't a complete loss. Bombs Away!!
ova,
Yep. China data posted back a few weeks ago - one analyst who predicted 4Q? 1Q? outright contraction in China - and the electric power stats that showed declining power generation...
Last month I indicated to a Chinese manufacturer that retail sales in the U.S. sales were likely to take beating post holidays and not recover for many moons. Tapped out consumers, too much bricks and mortar, too much debt.
He said for this item his factory can match any price and buyers have to go somewhere.
Told him slow sales in the stores, so forecasts slashed and buyers not coming.
He asked whether "more advertising" would fix it.
It's hard for some makers to realize that no body gets the order.
I have been WAY too positive (this coming from someone that is about 20% in stocks, 10% bought late last year).
OnlineBrokerReview | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 9:22 am | #
Paraphrasing Dr. Phil: How's that working for you?
"Note: The Census Bureau will release Q4 retail sales on Wednesday, and those numbers are guaranteed to be UGLY."
Question: whocouddanode?
Answer: CR. He posted this note to us us yesterday.
Look at the bright side, you are now officially part of the Next Great Generation!
ova, this was posted yesterday, but a propos:
Macro Man: A Tradeable Theme
Paraphrasing Dr. Phil: How's that working for you?
Comrade Volker the Viking | 01.14.09 - 9:24 am | #
Fine really. Did you notice the 10-20% stocks part? That isn't much of a loss.
And still no Russian gas to the Eurozone...
Anak | 01.14.09 - 9:26 am
Thanks. The ripple effect from the US retail implosion is going to be trully amazing. The UK is going to be on sale this summer. Spain? The numbers in that post Anak for Taiwan were incredible.
Even someone like me understands that Yes! Now is the time to panic!!!!!!!!
This is the largest YoY decline since the Census Bureau started keeping data.
It will probably be a short-lived record.
When they go, which they will, I have noticed the rest of the stores gradually die off. Or you have a strip mall with a free standing Curcuit City type. Throw in a few fast foods and a gas station and you have the typical outer burb strip mall.
nova | 01.14.09 - 9:06 am | #
Linens and Things already gone. They are liquidating their stores as we speak.
Ouch, down 135 pts in 30 seconds...
Obama...oops, sorry, Osama bin Laden released a tape for the first time in 9 months. Slacker. He indicated he will be moving to a gated community in Dallas called Preston Hollow. A reputable builder has crafted a 10,000 sq ft cave complete with an IED Cellar and a built in Dialysis machine. Current residents are anxiously awaiting his arrival.
Even someone like me understands that Yes! Now is the time to panic!
Manufacturers have fixed costs that most Americans (dryfly types excluded) forgot about a long time ago.
You don't panic, you just don't come back after the Chinese NY holidays. Any workers who do can sell off the WIP inventory and company car, divvy it up among themselves.
what is your favorite pick for a small town in the US where it's a close knit community, slower pace but higher quality of life, neighbors know each other, good farming land, relatively nice weather, no keep-up-with-the-jonses mentality, good schools, humble, honest, hard-working people that don't take short cuts and have great pride in their work, good place to raise kids, a place where there is a town center or main street that is a meeting place for the community, people are actively involved in community management, etc, etc. i lived in europe and found many places like that but i'm not sure where it's like that in america. help.....i wanna get out of this rat race.
"BOHICA..... bend over, here it comes again."
I wonder who the Last of the Bohicans will be.
what is your favorite pick for a small town in the US....
sounds like a Warner Bros sound stage circa 1953?
Nantucket, seriously, I'd look at the upper midwest, close to but not on rivers. Weather can be tough though.
Don't fly over next time~!
CR,
You are right about this being the largest y/y drop on record. Your chart only goes back to 1992, probably for the reason that the series is discontinuous at that point. However, the old series is maintained from 1969 through 2005 (on Economagic, anyhow), and the biggest nominal y/y decline was around 2.5%. I'd guess you know that, but it may be worth letting your readers know that when you say "worst on record" you aren't just talking about a 2 decade long record. The nominal y/y drop is about 3 times larger than any other period since the 1960s.
sounds like a Warner Bros sound stage circa 1953?
Anak | 01.14.09 - 9:39 am | #
Plenty of places, think southern Arkansas, southeast Missouri, Eestern Oklahoma, west Kansas.
Volker, I'm assuming the guy's from Nantucket. The places you list will send him into vertigo.
....nothing beats gardening in a desert oasis - "don't forget, it's a dry heat"
Another bright of this New York for example is going to look like giant greenhouse in which everybody and his dog are trying to grow tomatoes and potatoes on their balconies. Eco friggin City by accident!
a little perspective- eliminate MEW and push the savings rate back up to about 8% and that is about a 12% decline in consumer spending. Throw in the increase in unemployment that gets to about 16%. So depending on how you want to look at things- (a) this should not be worrying since it is completely explainable and we are about 2/3 way through the primary adjustment (b) while the river is closing to cresting up stream watch out down stream.
i'm not form nantucket and i've never even been there. that is just a goofy screen name taken from a tasteless rhyme. live in colorado.
many new spaghetti recipes, exotic pickle blends, and abundant salads....Ahhhh...the life of a gentleman farmer
Might be a good time to stock up on the basics before the supply chain starts breaking down. I HATE waiting in line.
Anak: I didn't want to come right out and say it, but he should think in terms of the Clampett clan:-).
Any way you cut it, dropping out offers many options. I did it in Oregon years ago. The one fact to remember is that there is not a lot of velocity in the money in these places, they tend to be clannish (not restricted to the South BTW), and one must make one's own way financially. Other than that, some fabulous places to be in CONUS.
I second the upper midwest. it's freezing in winter (especially this winter). but the people are pretty tight knit, often times even in the cities (like here in Minneapolis).
but it is f-r-e-e-z-i-n-g in the winter.
how do I play the pension implosion?
you hire old Mr goodwrench to wash your dishes and take out the trash.
We're way OT, so the man with the grin can come back after midnight and ask dryfly? Dreg up the recommendations made to CSC some time back...
Plenty of places, think southern Arkansas, southeast Missouri, Eestern Oklahoma, west Kansas.
Ugh ... can't speak to KS or OK, but I did a stint in southern Arkansas in my 20's. No thanks. Fails the "higher quality of life" requirement miserably IMO.
Personally I'd look somewhere along the Blue Ridge - western VA or NC, maybe. Lots of the benefits of the upper Midwest with a lot better climate. Asheville, NC isn't really a "small town" but it has all the other qualities you mention, in spades. One of my favorite places on Earth (but then again, I'm not really a small-town kind of guy).
Also quite a few college towns along this path - this can be a plus or a minus depending on personal preference of course, but if nothing else they're typically vibrant and tend to be local job hubs. Places like Johnson City, Roanoke, Harrisonburg, etc.
I'm a native East Coaster but I'm sure there are just as many places in the Rockies that would fit the bill as well, probably even better if you're as much the outdoors type as CR.
Best of luck to you.
It is great to check out of the rat race and buy down in a real estate market. I suggest you bring your own income and not depend on a job. Locals are real scared of outsiders.
Nantucket,
I grew up in a suburb of Rochester, NY. Weather is awful for 3 - 4 months of the year but has everything else you asked for. Canandaigua, Victor, Pittsford, Brighton, Fairport (all southeast suburbs) have decent village centers and not too long to drive to City of Rochester. Cost of living is quite low. Saw a 5BR, 4BA Victorian on East Ave (east of the City, a "ritzy" address) for $250k.
Plus, there's Wegmans.
the man from nantucket
Byhalia Area Chamber of Commerce
ew thread
I'm really concerned about the effect on all the Avon, Arbonne, Pampered Chef, etc. neighborhood sales parties !
Will these obvious pyramid schemes finally go away?
Comrade Mike J:
very familiar with Rochester, did my MBA at U of Rochester, loved the area but the weather not to my liking....LOVED Wegmans, no chain like it here in colorado.
Take a broader look at the chart.
Lower highs and lower lows. Sales have been in decline since the start date of that chart.
Would be interesting to see the total tax burden (Fed+State+City+Fees) added to 2nd Y axis.
YoY comaprisons are not as meaningful since we have been a slide for many months. Only good for drama. Also doesn't take into effect deflationary period we are in. However, let the mud slinging continue.Hopefully we will get back to real economic analysis at this site. Time to look forward.
People in small communities might be close to each other, but that doesn't mean they will be close to you when you move in.
When they go, which they will, I have noticed the rest of the stores gradually die off. Or you have a strip mall with a free standing Curcuit City type. Throw in a few fast foods and a gas station and you have the typical outer burb strip mall.
\t nova | \t \t \t \t01.14.09 - 9:06 am | #
That happened here in the early '90s, but they came back. I don't believe that America is willing to give up life in suburbia. They'll just postpone it for awhile.
Your estimate of the real decline in retail sales must be wrong, and by a long way. Go back and look at the Census Bureau numbers again. Half of the nominal decline in retail sales from 11/08 to 12/08 was a fall in gasoline sales. And we know the fall in gasoline sales was a pricing effect. Strip that out and it looks to me like the real decline in retail sales was about -1.4% mom (5.6% yoy). And it may be even less than that when we have the December inflation numbers.
Mook(Unrated) writes:
\t.....
Personally I'd look somewhere along the Blue Ridge - western VA or NC, maybe. Lots of the benefits of the upper Midwest with a lot better climate. Asheville, NC isn't really a "small town" but it has all the other qualities you mention, in spades. One of my favorite places on Earth (but then again, I'm not really a small-town kind of guy).
Mook | 01.14.09 - 9:57 am | #
The area around Charolettesville, VA is beautiful, especially up in the hill overlooking it.
Top Stories
Stocks Sink After Retail Sales Report- AP
Wall Street's anxiety about the economy and the health of the banking industry is sending stocks down sharply in early trading. The Commerce Department has reported that retail sales fell twice as much as expected during December. Investors were already well aware that consumers have curtailed their spending, but the data still came as an unpleasant surprise.
I love how they smooth it over as an "unpleasant surprise". It's a fucking disaster! The fact that the stock market is only down 200 points is absolute evidence that it's rigged.
xxxxx writes:
The area around Charolettesville, VA is beautiful, especially up in the hill overlooking it.
xxxxx | 01.14.09 - 10:18 am | #
I lived in Charlottesville, VA for 3 years, and I loved it there. The only problem is that the real estate in CV is outrageously expensive. In 3 years from 1996-1999 the rents went up 30%. Also, there aren't many places to earn a decent living there, unless you're a selected Professor or a lawyer.
The following points of opinion may be of interest:
1.
The consumer binge in the US is over. Today's data will be repeated -- another leg down, and then another -- until we are no longer surprised. Game over.
2.
Countries without widespread consumerism will fare better than the US throughout this global crisis. They don't have the burden of massive debt to fund imports of useless merchandise.
3.
People in the US use shopping as stress relief. The 'stress/anxiety' graph is rising; the 'locations to buy useless baubles' graph is sinking. The spread leads to a cultural crsisi.
the man from nantucket(Unrated) writes:
\twhat is your favorite pick for a small town in the US where it's a close knit community
the man from nantucket | 01.14.09 - 9:37 am | #
Franklin, TN springs to mind. Although there is a keep-up with the Jones's mentality there, somewhat. Loudon, TN or any number of the small, rural towns in the eastern half of that State might fit the bill.
Ovaltina, my goat
My oh my, what cliff diving.
I kept up my end, but it wasn't enough!!
Must work again, for a client who has lost nearly everything, and she had a lot to lose.
Hope I get paid.
Will check in at end of day.
the man from nantucket(Excellent) writes:
i lived in europe and found many places like that but i'm not sure where it's like that in america. help.....i wanna get out of this rat race.
Pittsburgh. Natural fortress region with awesome, tight-knit communities. Strategic river locale, large coal deposits.
Its problem is it's got a badly managed region, but that's about to go spectacularly bankrupt, so at least it won't bother you too much, which is a good thing, because the regional institutions are of dazzlingly poor quality.
Economic activity is a sub-par but then again, how much of the external comps were fraud or fluff?
It's all Bush's fault.
And if you don't think Obama will fix it, you're an idiot. Give him six months, things will be fine.
Obama can't fix demographics, which underlies all economic cycles. As hard as he tries to fight it, he won't win. By fighting natural economic cycles, he will only make it worse for the majority while protecting the rich minority. It will be more of the same- just a new face overseeing it. We know that TARP doesn't work, but he's still calling for more. People- especially liberal women are so cock-whipped by this "black" man. Barbara Walters and Oprah cream themselves every time they interview him. It's absolutely sickening. He has no executive experience whatsoever. Besides balancing a budget at home, he's never balanced a government budget in his life. He puts on a good show, I'll give him that.
Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Tiffany & Co., the worlds second- largest luxury-jewelry retailer, said holiday sales fell 21 percent as wealthy consumers reduced spending amid the global financial crisis. The chain cut its annual earnings forecast.
Try Staunton, VA. Big boxes (except Walmart) passed it by. Downtown still intact with all locally-owned restaurants, bars. Diverse economy with agriculture & manufacturing. Vibrant local music scene. Affordable real estate. Live downtown and walk to local theatres, cinema etc.
Not too many of you, though.
@ Mook 9:57 am | # writes:
...Personally I'd look somewhere along the Blue Ridge ...Asheville, NC isn't really a "small town" but it has all the other qualities you mention, in spades. One of my favorite places on Earth...
Here in Asheville, we & the county & chunks of the region experienced horrifically unsustainable real estate & land speculation and bubbles. Worse, in Asheville Metro, in 2005 at the height of the prosperity bubbles, median salaries stayed low, only 15K adults out of 166K working adults were in jobs that paid a median salary of $50K. Yet median house prices in the city hit $250K, often just for a 70 y.o. 1,000 SF frame hse. The now deflating bubble, plus Autumn's 3-week gasoline cut-off, and lack of salary growth, is both traumatizing folks and also sending em into a deep-freeze state-of-denial that is painful to watch or encounter.
Nantucket, Volker, Anak, Moot: Perhaps all who seek 'nirvana' community may be attempting destination-less & endless journeys.
Such community may have to be created 1 person at a time in the places we already reside in.
citizen ee,
If you're out there, I owe you a hat tip. Your link to the Hubbert paper at your site was very worthwhile. While I don't agree with all of his conclusion regarding solutions, the paper's data and analysis seemed sound to me. Well worth a read...
Michael Tehan 01.14.09 - 10:14 am writes:
Your estimate of the real decline in retail sales must be wrong... Half of the nominal decline in retail sales from 11/08 to 12/08 was a fall in gasoline sales...a pricing effect. Strip that out and it looks to me like the real decline in retail sales was about -1.4% mom (5.6% yoy). And it may be even less than that when we have the December inflation numbers.
As u note, CR wasn't focused on MOM declines in his post. Can you share ur data and ources on how u came up with 5.6% yoy? Thanks.
January 14, 2009: The curve has flattened further, narrowing to 148.3 on the 2-10-yr yield spread and back to late Dec levels on the 3-mo-10-yr.
December 9, 2008 The Treasury Department said it sold $30 billion in four-week bills at an interest rate of zero percent. That meant investors were willing to earn no return at all on their money as long as they could park it in the safety of Treasury securities.
The rate was down from an interest rate of 0.04 percent at last week's government auction of four-week bills.
January 6, 2009: And the yield on the 3-month Treasury bill rallied to 0.15% from 0.09% late Monday. The 3-month Treasury bill is considered a gauge of confidence because investors shuffle funds in and out of the note as they assess the risk of the marketplace.
Jan 14: Importantly, US 3-month Treasury Bills have started making their way higher to 0.12% after momentarily trading in negative territory in December 2008, as nervous investors were in desperate search of safety.
Credit Crisis Watch: Banks Still Fragile-Minyanville
On Wednesday (January 14) the government is set to auction $30 billion of cash management bills. Already this week, the Treasury has auctioned $22 billion worth of 52-week bills, $24 billion worth of 4-week bills, $26 billion worth of 13-week bills and $27 billion worth of 26-week debt.
Toward the end of 2008, government debt prices reached record heights and yields sank to record lows. The recession and the plummeting stock markets resulted in a record demand for government debt, which are perceived by most investors as the safest asset class in times of market turmoil.
And the yield on the 3-month Treasury bill held unchanged at 0.12%. The yield on the shorter term note fluctuates with the confidence in the marketplace. As investors shy away from other, riskier parts of the market, they move their funds into the short-term bill, sending the price higher and yield lower.
@ Mook 9:57 am | # writes:
...Personally I'd look somewhere along the Blue Ridge ...Asheville, NC isn't really a "small town" but it has all the other qualities you mention, in spades. One of my favorite places on Earth...
Here in Asheville, we & the county & chunks of the region experienced horrifically unsustainable real estate & land speculation and bubbles. Worse, in Asheville Metro, in 2005 at the height of the prosperity bubbles, median salaries stayed low, only 15K adults out of 166K working adults were in jobs that paid a median salary of $50K. Yet median house prices in the city hit $250K, often just for a 70 y.o. 1,000 SF frame hse. The now deflating bubble, plus Autumn's 3-week gasoline cut-off, and lack of salary growth, is both traumatizing folks and also sending em into a deep-freeze state-of-denial that is painful to watch or encounter.
Nantucket, Volker, Anak, Moot: Perhaps all who seek 'nirvana' community may be attempting destination-less & endless journeys.
Such community may have to be created 1 person at a time in the places we already reside in.
Avl Dao | 01.14.09 - 11:54 am |
I was tempted to joke that Lake Woebegon might be a good place. I had some nice experiences in Staunton, VA as well. But I note that many of the things you noted
"what is your favorite pick for a small town in the US where it's a close knit community, slower pace but higher quality of life, neighbors know each other, good farming land, relatively nice weather, no keep-up-with-the-jonses mentality, good schools, humble, honest, hard-working people that don't take short cuts and have great pride in their work, good place to raise kids, a place where there is a town center or main street that is a meeting place for the community, people are actively involved in community management, etc, etc"
have to do with what other people give TO you.
To build on AVLDAO's question-- what are you willing to give back? Perhaps if you become the change you'd like to see, you can change the culture where you live. In fact, I know that's so. Might you press for a community center, help teach others civic skills, and otherwise build social capital?
One problem that Asheville and like places face is those who come in and want to free-ride: they want to live in a downtown luxury condo, not participate (except to drive out the "dregs") and then wonder why the town is growing less vital & interesting. And ugly, as more condos spring up.
Also, you left off future water supply in your list: As warming grows, water will become more problematic.
I asked (I think might be previous thread).... how do I play the pension implosion? Short insurers, or is there a better route?
Eric | 01.14.09 - 9:12 am |
Stay healthy as you won't be able to afford retirement until you are about 127 years old.
Lighten up on Obama and how bad he will do. Look how well the MBA pres did and remember the Republicans were all set to give us a soccer mom who didn't know the difference between a continent and an country.
Last year of Clinton--up 10%, last year of Bush--down 10%.
how do I play the pension implosion?
the man fron nantucket, look no further than a hop, skip and a jump away from your namesake to Provincetown, Mass. The tip of Cape Cod: "The End of the World."
Nearly every quality you stated is taken for granted here; and you may take it as a plus or minus that life often feels, if not like a Warner Bros. sound stage circa 1953 as another poster posited, very much like a 20th Century Fox soundtage circa 1957 ("Peyton Place"); crossed with a Warner Bros. soundstage circa 1959 ("A Summer Place.")
For as in both movies, this is a stunningly beatufiul New England town full up high standards and low secrets and too much gossip. But hey, that's life.
Anyway, we treat each other a little better than do people in the big cities where I spent my youth. Our politics are liberal (yet our morals are surprisingly uptight, given our its rep as a tourist party town).
Our high school's declining enrollment means that it is not long for the world; but otherwise this is a great place to raise children, especially for gay and lesbian families.
Our town, beaches and woods are pristine enough to gloat about; and our outrageous home prices will likely fall here more than most other places. By and large, they've already taken a 25% haircut.
One big drawback: you had better be comfortably retired and/or reconciled to $12/hr. seasonal jobs, for tourism is our sole industry.
I fall in the latter boat, but even at one-tenth my former salary I'll never go back to the real world if I can help it. Never!
Hope that helps!
BTW to give you an idea of what we're about in the original context of this thread:
*The nearest fast-food restaurant, a Wendy's, is a 40-minute drive away. (Orleans, MA)
*So, too, the nearest Staples.
*The nearest McDonald's is an hour away, in Hyannis. Ditto Wal-MArt, Home Depot, etc.
*Boston/Providence are 2.5 hours by car, yet Boston only 20 minutes by air (we have one carrier, Cape Air, that flies several times a day in winter; summer ferry service = 1.5 hrs. to Boston).
Somebody may have made this point before, but the PCE price index or even the CPI price index is NOT the right price index to use when deflating retail sales. The CPI has a large housing cost component and the PCE has a large housing cost component and medical cost component in it, all things that aren't in retail sales. This is not a small error with energy prices doing what they are doing.
I just used the data in the census bureau report and backed out the gasoline numbers. Looking at it again I think I made a slip because I now get the nominal decline in retail sales (ex-gasoline) at 1.4% mom and 6.7% yoy. All the same, there's just no way you can get to a real decline of over 11%.
As has been pointed out above, i think the problem is you are using the wrong deflator. Gasoline sales are about 8% of retail sales and have declined 36% yoy, almost all of this being due to price, and that alone suggests that the yoy deflator for December 2008 must almost certainly be negative.
As investors shy away from other, riskier parts of the market, they move their funds into the short-term bill, sending the price higher and yield lower.
WTF is going on now? | 01.14.09 - 12:45 pm | #
whom they sell their other assets to and where did the buyer get the money? I find these comments about money moving completely absurd. For every buyer there is a seller- there is no net money change. All that has happened is that peoples valuations changed.
Now that's some cliff diving!