Time to realize that we don't need another new building for the foreseeable future.
Wall Street is finally waking up to the fact that not only is equity rapidly disappearing, but leverage is being rapidly destroyed, not to return in most of our lifetimes.
In that respect this is the 1930s. How many folks are ready to return tothe days when investing meant putting your money at risk?
This market is going to be very different without all of the hedge funds and daytraders.
As for the rest of the economy, well, it is the same. No more house investing or flipping. Gee, tragic.
An entire cable tv network or three will be gone after this.
Just skip the darned squirrel recipes.
And no roasted ponies either!!!
Buckle up, this is an entire generation's wealth evaporating as we speak.
wow, i don't read the language of the beige book regularly enough to guage the tone relative to past reports, but that language seemed GRIM! govt. publications typically use such dry, vague, broad terms and don't really use colorful words like "grim and depressing". that is what jumped out to me as very different...but i may be wrong on that.
does anyone here read the text on a regular basis and can comment on the tone relative to past releases and want to pontificate on this?
The 10% drop in December retail sales, year over year, is, to me, the clearest and loudest signal that a depression is now underway.
'Depression' is popularly defined as a 10% or greater drop in GDP.
FYI -- historically, all downturns were called 'depressions.' However, after the Lesser Depression, TPTB moved to using the less 'depressing' term, recession, in its stead.
Well, as somebody who was looking at buying a rental property here at ground zero Phoenix, I still see heroes and fools buying and paying waaay too much for property.
There is no point in buying until there will be a return. That might be quite a while.
You want a real chill dryfly- Alligator Nothing Down
Cap rate 15%.
Those are terms that will bring some warmth to my pocketbook.
the man from nantucket, I read it every month ... the beige book does contain some colorful language at times, but this might be the most negative section I've ever read. "Frozen" "exceptionally weak" "grim and depressing" "activity was very limited" "shrinking rapidly".
On the other hand, after the cliff dive, if the bungee cords break and you go splat, then the terms "grim", "depressing", and "frozen" would be reasonable descriptors, no?
I like the "ground to a halt" comment about Big D. Considering the number of strip centers being expanded or built in the last two years around where I worked I'm not at all surprised.
Eric - the last 30 mins on the market have worked wonders in the past couple of weeks. Beware the stalking bull?!
Ben the genius will go on about stimulating aggregate demand.
Is it a big surprise that an economy dependent on expansion and debt came to a crashing halt?
Forget about discussing solutions, just once, I'd like to hear Bernanke talk about the problem in a cogent manner. Perhaps, it'll finally happen when he is older and reading textbooks written about the stupidity that reigned during this period.
People sometimes fail to remember that loans are investments. The consequences are being meted for people investing money in ways that they would never have invested their OWN hard-earned money. Reckoning is a slow-moving glacier.
What are the chances the market gets a big pump job next week? With JPM and C reporting earlier than expected, lots of bad news this week (although it won't stop this week), and a sell-off on only ok volume, it could be a set-up for a jam job. We could also fall off a cliff at any point. I dunno...
I know guys in the late '60s and '70s, retired or about to retire, who kept their money in the market for the return it brought. Their portfolios are now cut in half. In retrospect they see it was idiocy to keep risking their retirement funds in the market in the same period when they actually needed those funds.
But at the time the market was perfectly safe, or at least had a limited downside. Everyone said so.
Just skip the darned squirrel recipes. And no roasted ponies either!!! Citizen AllenM | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 3:20 pm | #
My Dad just came back from a trip to South America this Fall, and told me about eating Guinea Pig at a restaurant, so don't complain about squirrel. Besides, it's good.
"does anyone here read the text on a regular basis "
the BB is generally written in something approaching english, with considerable candor for a fed gubmint publication. it was back in'02 as well, when i bothered reading them.
Bear in mind, except for no Greenspan, this is the same gang of lightweights who cried deflation in 2002, enabling the run-up that created this mess, then denied there was a significant problem until last fall. When the Fed starts to write like they ran over their pet puppy on the way to work this morning I start to wonder.
"does anyone here read the text on a regular basis "
the BB is generally written in something approaching english, with considerable candor for a fed gubmint publication. it was back in'02 as well, when i bothered reading them. Anonymous | 01.14.09 - 3:40 pm | #
On top of that - any one dig deeper & read the report on their district. I just did it for the 9th (Minneapolis)... wasn't as bad as I expected and not 'depressing' but not 'bubbly' either.
How does the report from your region stack up with your own eyeballs?
mp here. Conjure started screaming "Get out!" on November 22, 2007. \t mp | \t \t \t \t01.14.09 - 3:42 pm | #
People on this blog don't count as part of "everyone." This isn't the place for people who like common wisdom. But the common wisdom is what most people go by. I told them. But their investment counselors told them other things, according to the common wisdom.And had a pretty good track record. Until they didn't.
Raw horse is damn good. Damn travesty you can't eat it in the US. ille_vir | 01.14.09 - 3:43 pm | #
That may be because it's grass fed, or at least it isn't fattened on corn. I suspect that grass fed beef w/o hormones, etc., would taste good as well. I've had horse, and I like it. I'll pass on the dog.
thanks CR and Anon, always good to get info about tone and language relative to past releases, makes a difference about conclusions I draw from it. it's still bad but it's less worse than i first thought...kinda like being dead is less worse than being dead, naked, with rigor mortis and left in the town square for all to see.
Republican senators move to block bank-bailout bill
pissing in the wind. The way EESA is written, they need to get enough votes to reject the disbursement; they can't simply hold up the vote. Good luck in a Democratic Congress.
Horses have high body temp, like around 101F, I think, so I've heard they have much less parasites, and are better than other animals for eating raw. Grass fed cows are good too, but I'm not confident enough in them to eat it raw.
MP --- I'd like to testify. 38, married, two kids. I was buy-and-hold, index funds, large cap, small cap, international, emerging -- 401K, IRA, Roth IRA... you know the drill.
I got completely out of equities in February 2008 based on you & the collective wisdom here. The "save" has been just shy of $100K.
Completely baffled as to what to do next, but thanks fellas.
pissing in the wind. The way EESA is written, they need to get enough votes to reject the disbursement; they can't simply hold up the vote. Good luck in a Democratic Congress. Basel Too | 01.14.09 - 3:48 pm | #
If Dems were real shits they would let the GOPers 'kill it' via a cloture battle - and then ramp up th emedia machine to blame the GOPers on the 'market disaster' that will inevitably follow [whether the bill passes or not].... anything to continue the 'blame the GOP' well into their own rule. If the GOP was smart they would get real small for the next two years and let the Dems 'bask in the glory'... current crop of GOPers aren't too smart.
Perhaps, from the fact that the parties aren't doing the standard partisan blame-shifting / finger-pointing that you would expect, we might conclude that there are higher level forces at work?
In my naive days I'd have said that there were still some honest patriots on both sides, trying to do the right thing for the country as best they saw it. But now I'd say it's more likely they're both dangling from a common set of puppet strings held by the Masters of the Bond Market... which is not a monolith although it has more common interests than dems & reps... Hmm...
I dumped all SDS for a decent 10% gain overall. I started averaging in too early but also nailed my last tranche on Jan 2. I'm not saying I am a trading wizard or don't have losses, but feels good! Good to have a profit and good to get out of that slippery drug of an ETF.
The scariest thing is that I think no one sensible is in control: not the Fed, not the Treasury, not Wall St., not Congress and not the Executive.
We're in such a pickle, that no one has the capacity to point out the problem: debt, overcapacity, generational malinvestment, etc. For any credible leader to do so would undermine the entire system.
No, the answer is to perpetuate the current allocation and hope for the best.
Does GLD have to go all the way down to the mid-$60's (from today's $79.8x) before it's a good point for hedging the inevitable inflation some years out?
[If Dems were real shits they would let the GOPers 'kill it' via a cloture battle...]
Huh. So standing in the way of the TARP is suicide? Seems to me the first installment has been a big loser for the citizenry. Just a bunch of loot for the banks to hoard, pay bonuses and dividends with while they sacrifice employees at the firings altar and let businesses die on the vine.
"Until I know how we spent it [the first $350-billion of TARP], why we spent it and where it is and how it's going to be paid back, I think it'd be irresponsible for me to vote for the next $350 billion," said House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio.
Citizen AllenM writes:
Well, as somebody who was looking at buying a rental property here at ground zero Phoenix, I still see heroes and fools buying and paying waaay too much for property.
Citizen AllenM: Do you also see falling rental rates as a BIG problem right now? YoY rents fell by 10% where I'm looking.
No way I look at anything that's not 20% the ceapest offer on MLS right now and I have to see signs of stabilizing rents.
P.L.
Oops, I'm with s-; I will be going 100% gold mining stocks and gold, but only after a nice interim drop in the market (gold mining stocks have reverted to being correlated with the broad market, again).
FDIC: FIL-3-2009: The SAR Activity Review by the Numbers, November 2008 Issue
Bank Secrecy Act
The Sar Activity Review by the Numbers, November 2008 Issue FIL-3-2009
January 14, 2009
Summary: The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) has issued the eleventh edition of The SAR Activity Review By the Numbers. The report includes information through June 30, 2008.
Highlights:
FinCEN has issued the eleventh edition of The SAR Activity Review By the Numbers. The report compiles numerical data gathered from Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs) filed primarily by depository institutions. SAR data is also compiled for certain segments of the following industries: insurance, securities and futures, money services businesses, as well as casinos and card clubs.
As of June 30, 2008, over 6 million SARs had been filed with FinCEN. Of that total, 3.7 million - or 62 percent - were filed by depository institutions.
Bank Secrecy Act/Structuring/Money Laundering continues to be the leading characterization of suspicious activity by depository institutions.
The first two quarters of 2008 reiterated the continued upward trend of mortgage loan fraud and identity theft. During the same period, reported instances of terrorist financing have continued to decline every year since 2004.
Mortgage loan fraud SARs increased by approximately 40 percent, consumer loan fraud filings increased 35 percent, and wire transfers fraud SARs increased 87 percent compared to the corresponding six-month reporting period in 2007.
The SAR Activity Review By the Numbers is published twice annually covering two filing periods: January 1 to June 30, and July 1 to December 31. The report can be accessed at: http://www.fincen.gov/news_room/rp/files/sar_by_numb_11.pdf. 419K (PDF Help)
The SAR Activity Review By the Numbers is a companion report to The SAR Activity Review Trends, Tips & Issues.
Re gold mining stocks - would you want to differentiate between miners who have hedged their top line (i.e. sold gold forward) versus those who are still exposed to it?
"would you want to differentiate between miners who have hedged their top line"
theoretically the hui versus the xau is supposed to do that for you. at that point, you really need to do DD on a company-by-company basis and get to know their actual book
Perhaps, from the fact that the parties aren't doing the standard partisan blame-shifting / finger-pointing that you would expect, we might conclude that there are higher level forces at work? Wisdom Speaker | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 3:58 pm | #
There will be blame-shifting & finger-pointing galore before this is over. But at a certain point the Dems will have to actually 'govern' - GOP needs to make them do it - that is the job of a 'minority party'. I'm all in favor of DeMint et. al. forcing a roll call vote... put everyone on the record. But they better be careful - it is easy to get out maneuvered & be the scapegoat for what will happen anyway - that is how majority parties can sometimes retain their majority even though they clearly can't govern. I've seen that way too many times from both parties over my lifetime.
Come on Americans, this depression crap sounds so...slavic. What is the matter with you? You wanna be lousy copycats or what? supafly73 | 01.14.09 - 4:06 pm | #
IIRC, Slavic comes from the Viking term for slave, and to an extent, that's what we've become. Slaves to work and possessions.
I got completely out of equities in February 2008 based on you & the collective wisdom here. The "save" has been just shy of $100K.
Moved my 401k and other ivestments into "stable value" and bank CDs based on CalcRisk's predictions. Saved about $20k from disaster (I'm younger than you).
"Robert Wade is a New Zealander, who has lived and worked in Britain and US for past 4 decades. Worked as an economist at World Bank, and taught at MIT, Princeton, Brown universities in US, and at Sussex University and LSE in Britain. He won the Leontief Prize in Economics in 2008, which some describe as an alternative Nobel Prize for heterodox economists (previous winners include J.K. Galbraith and Amartya Sen). He is a member of The Financial Times Economists Forum, a group of 50 economists described by the Financial Times as 50 of the worlds most influential economists.
Ten years ago he wrote several studies of the East Asian financial crisis. He has visited Iceland several times over the past few years. From August 2007 he has been giving public talks and interviews in Iceland about the growing dangers of a major crisis, drawing on his knowledge of what happened in East Asia.
In early July he published an article in The Financial Times titled Iceland pays the price for financial excess. In this article he rang the alarm bell even louder than before. The article said little that was new to Icelanders, but because it was published in a highly respected international newspaper, it attracted attention in Iceland. The PM was asked for his reaction to it, and dismissed it as worth no more attention than a letter in DV. His reaction was yet another of many examples where our political leaders failed to pay attention to warning signs at a time when they could have taken action to reduce the damage which Icelands society is now experiencing."
So there was someone pointing to the pending implosion, and was dismissed out of hand. Nobody wants to hear bad news.
Colorful language that will appear in the next Beige Book:
"immanent global collapse"
"political repercusions"
"ideologically-driven deregulation"
"Iceland"
"future of capitalism"
"mustard-seed moron"
"Calculated Risk" (mentioned in the footnotes)
With my forecast of 2009 earnings per share for S&P500 firms being in the 50 to 60 dollars range and with P/E ratio likely to be in the 10 to 12 range given a severe global recession the S&P500 could bottom at some point in 2009 at best at a level of 720 and, in a worse scenario, as low as 500 or 600. So, the worst is indeed still ahead of us.
Well, maybe I just have to call the United Nations. Within days they will do the infamous Potatoe Sack Bombing Thunder Runs! PSBTR! (Like they do in Africa, really bad boys). In order to save the village and all that...
So if your kids is killed, while sleeping in a tent, by the Happy Potatoe Sack From Sweden, well, sh*t happens! REMEMBER, WE ARE HERE TO HELP!
Does GLD have to go all the way down to the mid-$60's (from today's $79.8x) before it's a good point for hedging the inevitable inflation some years out?
JimPortlandOR | 01.14.09 - 4:01 pm | #
I'd say yes. Gold should break below the $730 of last November. Deflation affects all asset classes and PMs are just an asset class.
I see that others are more optimistic than I, but that's my take.
A lurker here who thinks mp, maxedoutmama, mock turtle and a few others are terrific. I also like the poetry of Jas and Pavel (not associating the two of them).
mp- I got my family and friends out of stock and into cash in early October 2007. The market was at 13900. You were one of the voices inside my head when I did that. Thanks, and thank conjure for me as well.
Now I'm called a lot by my dad and sisters about the future, and I'm telling them to stay away from stocks until the Dow goes under 7000, around April and after a post-Obama rally or two. I also called out major asset deflation which will continue through this year, followed by hyperinflation (kicking off the bottom of the pool) beginning at some point in 2010.
Time to go back to my management consulting and terminal lurking.
I was at a venture capital conference the other day in Boston.
The speakers indicated that there was still plenty of VC money out there for small deals ($25 million and lower). Follow on funding is giving lower valuations on all industries, regardless of trendiness.
Initial seed money and angel financing is still strong. This is not so much due to any economic strength. Quite the opposite. Start-ups are finding much more good talent available for less money and super cheap leases.
However, either people have gone cold turkey on the place, have left the 'hood, or are feeling the pinch.
I know half a dozen wall streeters that brown bag their lunches now. They all said that a $10 NYC deli lunch was too expensive given what has happened.
A quick thank you note to CR & friends. In December 07, someone gave me "Financial Armageddon," which I read while waiting for the movers--our landlord had been foreclosed on. The book seemed shrill but possibly not totally nutty, so I got into reading various blogs, some mainstream, some not. Calculated Risk scared me the most. It wasn't shrill screaming about impending doom (CR doesn't do that)--it was that CR is relentlessly factual. Up til then I'd had an 'aggressive growth' portfolio. Moved everything into much safer territory by mid-January. I am SO glad I did this. My mom, my siblings, many of my friends, people who didnt' make the change back then, all their 401(k)s are halved.
I don't know what's coming, except that it'll be unpleasant and probably drawn out. I'm truly grateful to all of you.
Ukraine welcomes EU call to sue gas companies
By MONIKA SCISLOWSKA 1 hour ago
WISLA, Poland (AP) The Ukrainian president on Wednesday welcomed a European Union call for legal action in its bitter gas dispute with Russia, saying it would give Kiev the chance to prove it is not to blame for leaving many Europeans without heat.
President Viktor Yushchenko's remarks came hours after the European Commission president, Jose Manuel Barroso, warned the Russian and Ukrainian state-run gas companies that he will urge European energy companies to sue them unless they move quickly to restore gas supplies. The article requested is no longer available.
This second article is a big deal because it means:
1. no resolution until Saturday at the earliest
2. not highlighted here, but EU representation not invited - just each importing country
Russia proposes summit of EU gas importers
Wed Jan 14, 2009 3:40pm GMT
MOSCOW, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev proposed on Wednesday to hold a summit of European Union's importers of Russian gas in Moscow on January 17 to discuss the situation with Russian gas supplies via Ukraine. Russia proposes summit of EU gas importers
| Markets
| Reuters
Thank you, God. With all of the goldbugs around here, I thought I'd never see anyone here actually write that. mp | 01.14.09 - 4:20 pm | #
LOL... but we all know real goldbugs don't even denominate in 'dollars'... its barrels per ounce... square feet per ounce... etc., so what do they care what happens to 'dollars'? Well except for maybe their pay check conversion.... dollars per hour into ounces per hour.
Let's have a common passport for all citizens of CHIMERICA (China + America) and free movement of labor, and ALL problems solved. After that, there won't be enough houses idle in America!
We can then bring education budget in America down to zero, since all brain-power-required positions will be taken by Chinese.
We then outsource America's armed forces to the Chinese, they seem to pay good. And indirectly, they have been already paying for the growth and support of our US troops and deployments through the purchase of Uncle Sam bonds.
There it is, credit and financial crisis solved, all at once.
first it was RRE, then it was CRE, yesterday we found that P(ublic)RE's funding (taxes, borrowing) was stalling out.
but, most sadly, OCDan informs us of the impending slump in B(urger)RE.
Sob!
Anonymous writes:
Let's have a common passport for all citizens of CHIMERICA (China + America) and free movement of labor, and ALL problems solved. After that, there won't be enough houses idle in America!
That's fine with me. I have a big stake in several Melamine mines. I beat Pat Robertson to the punch.
"A Pennsylvania couple is behind bars after police say they failed to call the bank when a glitch put an extra $175,000 in their account."
To bad, a quick wire transfer to a Brazilian bank and a couple of plane tickets would have done the trick. Just shows you need to have that valid passport at all times.
Mexico collapsed shortly after Texas beat the crap out them. They have never recovered and won't until the Spanish "Peninsulare" elite are dealt with as they were in France and Russia.
Divide and conquer - individual bilateral negotiations excluding the EU government - crack EU solidarity and permanently snuff out NATO expansionism (speculating a bit, but chess is the national pastime in Russia).
Bulgaria, Slovakia and Moldova are the hardest hit in the gas shut down. Core EU countries, not so much. But the shutdown is an instant depression in some of the countries already on the edge...
Potential Landlord.
The situation here in Arizona is going to be very bad for quite a while.
Consider this, we are still finishing some houses, while the population living here is falling, and thousands of houses are empty and in the foreclosure pipeline.
Rents falling? By how much is going to be the accurate question.
Revenue here is falling off a cliff.
Business here is doing likewise.
All I can say is that this will be a fascinating year.
Talk to me next year, or contemplate when you would like your cheap housing next to the golf course.
Right now everybody is anchored in the prices of the last five years.
The bottom will be when you can cashflow a house you pay cash for at 10%, as there will be no investor mortgages available.
Interesting Times writes: \tdryfly - when will I be able to consult for an ounce of gold per day? Interesting Times | 01.14.09 - 4:25 pm | # ----- I second this remark!
I'll be glad to "just" get paid in Gold American Eagles instead of a paycheck. Heck, give me a gold coin + silver coins to make the difference and let me worry about the conversion...
Republican senators move to block bank-bailout bill
Political theater, since the bill was written to make it virtually impossible to stop the funds. In the most difficult scenario, Obama could offer to abide by restrictions Congress puts in later and to give Elizabeth Warren's oversight some teeth to get 34 Senators to go along with him. He might well do that anyway, without being force. I doubt he'll have to.
Of course, for a minority that barely has blocking ability anyway political theater is about all they can do, and potentially very important in the future. If the Republicans become the anti-bailout party, Obama has to do a really outstanding and popular job with the rest of the TARP or hand them a whopper of a political asset. This is how politics is supposed to work.
"its barrels per ounce" LOL I hope we are talking whiskey.
I know it sounds nuts but I think the only way to save the economy is for governments start making purchases of gold at regular intervals. We need a flight out of dollars to stimulate growth. I do not think even the best intended stimulus plans will capture the fire needed to change the depression mindset developing. Our currency has to be second fiddle instead of the safe haven.
In conclusion, the Feds measures are growing in risk. First, it is assuming some collateral that the open market has shunned. And second, the Feds exit strategy becomes increasingly hazy with rising non-borrowed reserves; the risk of inflation is on the move.
"this is an entire generation's wealth evaporating as we speak"
That depends on which definition of wealth you are using.
If you mean paper wealth, or even market value of assets minus market value of liabilities, wealth is dropping. That's because most families have volatile market value assets (stocks, homes, cars), but have fixed-principal liabilities (mortgages, car loans). For an individual, a foreclosure or bankruptcy makes their wealth look greater (or their shortfall look smaller).
If you mean the actual stuff people own, and they actual services they receive, the funny thing is wealth isn't disappearing nearly as rapidly. There is both overall deflation (e.g., gas prices, clothing), and a much stronger asset price deflation (e.g., stocks, houses).
If you now make $500/month less, but the type of house you want to buy is now $1500/month less, are you more or less wealthy?
"The two were arraigned Tuesday on theft and other charges and jailed in lieu of $100,000 bail. A public defender was being assigned."
I'll point out the obvious and wonder why Madoff is still not in jail. If you say not indicted then I will ask why hasn't he been indicted and how is he under house arrest if no charges have been brought.
San Jose city officials hope Oracle will eventually move employees into the building. Most of its 17 stories remain unfurnished. Thought it looks impressive from afar, a closer inspection reveals a layer of accumulated filth on its broad, blue windows
Gee ya think, Oil prices in the tank and output falling like a rock, so much for #1 source of income
Construction collapsing in the U.S. and unemployemnt rising, time for reverse migration going south over the rio grande, so much for #2 source of forex (transfers from illegals to family back down south)
Nobody in US has cash or the inclination to go on expensive vacations, ie tourism shot, not sure the rank but has to be up there.
Dave of SVwrites: \tJobs taking leave of absence until june Dave of SV | 01.14.09 - 4:41 pm | # ---- First, they took our jobs! Now, they are taking our Jobs!
Mix in a bad MacWorld and what is an Apple Fanatic suppose to do?
Well NATO and the EU love the Ukraine so much, why don't they just pay the bill? Russia isn't going to give its gas away for free or under market much longer so these fools better wise up and pay up. Or freeze. The idea of suing Russia or Gazprom is ludicrous.
I know it sounds nuts but I think the only way to save the economy is for governments start making purchases of gold at regular intervals. tg is a born & bred dope in a | 01.14.09 - 4:36 pm | #
AMEN!
And I am NO gold bug.
There would be no single better way to fight deflation than doing that - and at the end of the day the gov't would be holding a LOT bigger pile of 'hard assets' which if unacceptable levels of inflation ensued... reverse the process - sell some gold [and soak up dollars].
I would not be surprised to see that happen before we are done - that and possibly buy land too [guaranteed to stay in USA].
Water shortage, huge gang problems, Mexico instability, huge RR/CRE crash with secondary economic effects, and the heat(Dry). Why would Phoenix be a place to buy at any price?
Governments must use the time between now and March-May 2009 to equip themselves to cope with a surge of unemployment, a collapse of capital-funded pension funds, and fierce anger directed at them by their citizens, which may take the form of large-scale civil protest. I doubt whether there will be any significant recovery of economic growth in the world economy at large or in Iceland until late 2010 at the earliest.
Robert Wade for SecTreas! Congress can grant him citizenship if necessary.
Oh yeah, Pemex is cliff diving...their giant field, Cantarell is in a huge sleigh ride of irreversible decline (experienced by all oil fields eventually, the rate of decline is a function of the intersection of physical properties of the reservoir and the investment and engineering acumen of the asset manager)
meanwhile Plantronics just announced they missed their December revenues numbers by $22 million ($184 vs $206) announcing 18% workforce reduction and a 50% cut in capex for fiscal 2010. The beat goes on.....
Might be a great time to annex Baja. Economically, they're pretty much the 52nd state (PR's 51st) already. Talk about a big market for infrastructure projects...
It is all about Ukraine and Russia smackdown, nothing else. Ukraine owns the main pipes going to the Europe side and Russia provides the gas. Two stubborn slavic nations facing each other. All other pipes are working just fine to the Europe...
Russia is in huge trouble. That little stunt they pulled two weeks ago was a blatant attempt to drive oil prices higher. Their budget is totally f$cked this year with oil in the 30's. It's a fiscal disaster for them.
tg, Mr. Fekete has some problems with that piece. It's simply not true that the U.S. Mint sells gold pieces for a premium and as souvenirs. They sell bullion pieces (not the proofs) for the price of gold plus the cost of production (government calculated cost).
Later he tries to contrast an 'open Mint' example in Canada where someone is trading 400 ounce bars for 400 Maples "paying a premium that, according to the firm, is small enough that it can sell the Maple Leafs profitably at the normal 7-9% premium."
That's all the gold dealers who buy from the U.S. Mint charge. You can buy all the Gold Eagles you want for $50 over spot.
Lots of dealers were out of stock on certain items through the second half of 2008, due to retail demand, but that has nothing to do with gold being supplied in monetary form to whoever wants it.
You mean Russia doesn't want to get paid? I think you are confused. If Russia was paid it could not use the issue for political purposes. The fact that it has not been paid is what opens the door to the rest.
anon,
the gang problem is quite well under control- homicides dropped by 25% over the last year, and quite simply we will be solving our immigration issues.
The real reason- today's high is 74 degrees.
Only coastal california is nicer in the summer. Yeah it gets hot, but so what, I don't shovel sunshine in the summer and I don't have to freeze- I lived in some really nasty climates in my youth. At least I don't have that.
All of the amenities of life in a big city, and ultimately few drawbacks once this crisis has passed.
It still snows in Minneapolis and Buffalo.
A lot.
When house prices look attractive, folks flock here to buy. There was a brief flurry from Canada, even, during the summer driven by oil money.
Might be a great time to annex Baja. Economically, they're pretty much the 52nd state (PR's 51st) already. Talk about a big market for infrastructure projects... Bob Dobbs | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 4:49 pm | #
Go for the whole thing - the whole enchilada - they would come our way anyway - call it 'El Anschluss'. Same difference.
Talk about a new voting block - somebody, what is 'yes we can' in spanglish?
Ow... Plantronics is a big employer where I live. Anonymous | 01.14.09 - 4:50 pm | #
So, you live down the road from me, or in Puerto Rico. So: Midcounty-Western Santa Cruz County has taken three big employment hits in the past week: Plantronics, the Gottschalks BK, and the Cemex six-month shutdown. And we're in California, where "it's different."
around the corner from shot on home page (carmen island) is a honey hole for Lobster....mucho langosta y cerveza corona...in one dive I was hit by 300 lobster in one hole easily after entering......
Sounds like Putin has them right where he wants them...although apparently annual negotiations have been commonplace, this year's dispute smells to me like a replay of the 1973 OPEC boycott. In '73 OPEC was flexing their control over a key fuel source; now Russia's doing the same thing.
Yes, because Russia is getting paid for that gas. It is the gas to and via the Ukraine that Russia is not getting paid for. It doesn't like the Ukraine's policies but it couldn't use the gas to beat up on it if it were being paid. Is that so difficult to understand?
Pancreatic Cancer
Median survival from diagnosis is around 3 to 6 months; 5-year survival is less than 5%. Jobs was diagnosed in 04' so he seems like one of the very luck few so far.
So, you live down the road from me, or in Puerto Rico. So: Midcounty-Western Santa Cruz County has taken three big employment hits in the past week: Plantronics, the Gottschalks BK, and the Cemex six-month shutdown. And we're in California, where "it's different."
I already headed for the hills -- Ben Lomond. But of course I have friends at Plantronics. I won't miss Gottshalks but Davenport is going to get ugly if Cemex stops subsidizing the utilities.
Not to mention the commuters that might not need to commute in a few months time...
Tim and the American Miracle | 01.14.09 - 4:53 pm | #
Tim,
Yes I live in Houston. It's been very good to me, both personally and professionally (I work at one of the majors). We are catching up on the RE cycle, big dropoffs in transaction volumes and some price declines...
Hope you like humid if you come this way. Bit of an adjustment when I moved from Colorado to the Gulf Coast.
Might be a great time to annex Baja. Economically, they're pretty much the 52nd state (PR's 51st) already. Talk about a big market for infrastructure projects... Bob Dobbs | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 4:49 pm | #
Go for the whole thing - the whole enchilada - they would come our way anyway - call it 'El Anschluss'. Same difference. dryfly | 01.14.09 - 4:55 pm | #
The northern tier of states, we could probably just ask, "Ya wanna?" And that would do it. The rest, I don't know.
Gearing up to make it happen and integrate the whole mess; that might be as big an economic stimulus as some wars we've had -- and more than the two we have now.
The Ukraine doesn't have any (much) money and can't pay market prices for its gas. Russia hates the Ukraine's flirtation with NATO and is demanding a market price for gas sold to it. The gas to the Ukraine goes through pipes that also pass some gas on to Europe. The Ukraine, rather than pay
Russia a market price, is syphoning off gas meant for Europe. So Russia has cut the supply going through the Ukraine.IF RUSSIA WERE PAID A MARKET PRICE FOR THE GAS GOING THROUGH AND TO THE UKRAINE IT COULD NOT USE THE ISSUE POLITICALLY.
Jobs announcment is a smack down on CNBC! Their "reporter" has been saying he is doing great! Add this to that clown Phil Lebeau who covers autos and apprears to be a PR man for the little 3...that channel is a joke and has zero credibility...
In that respect this is the 1930s. How many folks are ready to return tothe days when investing meant putting your money at risk? Citizen AllenM | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 3:20 pm | #
One of the first buildings that Hewlett and Packard put up was designed so that, if the business failed, it could be used as a supermarket.
MOT just preannounced...cutting an additional 4,000 jobs (they announced a little while back would cut 3,000, so this makes 7,000 jobs cut.) Also revenue came in around $7.1 billion versus expectations of $7.5 billion--or $400 million miss.
citizen energyecon writes:
...Ukraine welcomes EU call to sue gas companies...
...Russia proposes summit of EU gas importers...
I can not help but to think that Russia and Ukraine with their idiotic gas quarrel have only permanently (well, for the next 10 years or so) damaged their opportunities with the EU.
They may have hoped to hurt/blame/outdo each other, but from an EU point of view, they are simply both not fit as a bussiness partner.
As for Ukraine and NATO : NATO, with a nation which drove it's financial system to the brink of desaster as it's leader, this organisation is toast also. Who believes in the defense by AAA-liers, just a joke.
". It doesn't like the Ukraine's policies but it couldn't use the gas to beat up on it if it were being paid. Is that so difficult to understand?"
Of course and that is why at least western europe has gigantic gas tank reserves (three months at full power with no rationing). The eastern europe is of course suffering when these two stubborn slavic nations are staring each other who is gonna blink first.
The northern tier of states, we could probably just ask, "Ya wanna?" And that would do it. The rest, I don't know.
Bob Dobbs | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 4:59 pm | #
Probably not some of the 'indian' states like Oaxaca but some southern states like Quintana Roo [Cancun & southern Yucatan]? I'd bet they'd go in a heartbeat. I've traveled down there way outside Cancun [along the Belize border and around Chetumal] and I had a hard time NOT finding somebody who didn't have family up in El Norte or traveled [worked] up here. One person even knew the places I traveled in the Midwest and the plants I'd called on - she had worked in a number of them saving up money for her marriage.
There are way more of them that would sign on than Americans who would sign on... the thing that keeps Mexico Mexico is the 'elites'... most all of them would become second class elites the minute they became 'Americans'. Never let it happen as a result.
Ukraine is also stricken by the fall in commodities prices - steel and wheat(?). Hal seems to me to have a good understanding of the commercial situation. But beyond that there is an issue of existential importance to Russia. Where does Ukraine stand in relation to Russian national security interests?
This is a game without quarter and without pity, as it is played by nation states.
The fact that it has not been paid is what opens the door to the rest.
Hal | 01.14.09 - 4:54 pm | #
Hal,
There is much more going on here than a simple commercial disagreement, and whether the bill got paid.
Do some homework on the intermediaries used for the transactions by both Gazprom and Naftogaz and your head will spin - corruption is rife on both sides, and political rivalries within Ukraine exacerbate the situation - in addition to Russia being unable to carry Ukraine at a subsidized price and Ukraine being unable to pay at a jacked up rate.
Russia is trying to force a regime change in Ukraine to a friendly, and ultimately gain control of the transmission network.
Ukraine's Yushchenko deliberately poisoned with dioxin - official test results
06.02.2006, 02:18 AM
KIEV (AFX) - Ukraine's President Viktor Yushchenko was the victim of a deliberate poisoning with the toxic chemical dioxin, the country's state prosecutor said Thursday, citing official test results more than a year after the politician was disfigured by a mystery illness.
Werner, excuse me, but this is no idiotic game. It is deadly serious. When Yushchenko said that Ukraine had been humiliated by Russia, he was not being melodramatic.
Someone asking about Houston. I live in northwest Houston, where there is zero evidence of a recession.
Shops, restaurants, roads, consistently jammed, people are buying, anecdotally speaking. At REI this weekend, we were there for an hour and lines were consistent and long. Perhaps it's all returns and gift cards, we'll see come February.
Bought a new car on 12/31, went in to pick up the plates amongst a very thick stack this week. The salesman said business was good I dont' know how true that is, but he seemed upbeat.
Realtor friends of my wife's say that business for conforming properties is brisk.
Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Motorola Inc., the second-biggest U.S. seller of mobile phones, is cutting 4,000 more jobs as the economic slump erodes consumer spending.
About 3,000 of the job cuts will come from its mobile devices unit, Schaumburg, Illinois-based Motorola said today in a statement. The reduction follows 3,000 job cuts disclosed in October as declines in the handset business leached profitability.
In a presentation that drew several collective intakes of breath, Mr Kelly predicted that house prices would fall by 80 per cent from peak to trough in real terms
Sparing no blushes, he said professional economists in the Central Bank and the Economic and Social Research Institute need to look very closely at their analyses of the Irish economy and figure out what went wrong.
Mr Kelly said Irelands reputational capital had been damaged by chancers such as ex-Anglo Irish Bank chairman Seán FitzPatrick, who had been abetted by buffoons such as former financial regulator Patrick Neary, Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan and the Taoiseach.
Someone asking about Houston. I live in northwest Houston, where there is zero evidence of a recession. Dust Bowling for Dollars | 01.14.09 - 5:12 pm | #
Texas is one of 3 US states not currently in recession. Enjoy it while it lasts.
U.S. Mint sells gold pieces for a premium and as souvenirs
I think he is referring to the $50 on the coin itself. Our government will only redeem it for face price in the market place. I may be wrong. He sounds like he will answer your e-mails if you write him. Not trying to be flippant.
"But beyond that there is an issue of existential importance to Russia. Where does Ukraine stand in relation to Russian national security interests?"
Americans always seem to overestimate the Russian military capabilities ans underestimate the capabilities of what is within Western Europe.
If Germany/UK/France together were to attack with even half of their NATO fighters against Russia, Russian Air Forces would be toast about in a hour. They would not stand a chance.
Pancreatic Cancer
Median survival from diagnosis is around 3 to 6 months; 5-year survival is less than 5%. Jobs was diagnosed in 04' so he seems like one of the very luck few so far.
Tim and the American Miracle | 01.14.09 - 4:58 pm | #
He had endocrine versus exocrine and the survival rates are significantly greater than exocrine. Often, the tumors with endocrine are benign. The disease does affect your hormone levels.
Shops, restaurants, roads, consistently jammed, people are buying, anecdotally speaking. At REI this weekend, we were there for an hour and lines were consistent and long. Perhaps it's all returns and gift cards, we'll see come February. Dust Bowling for Dollars | 01.14.09 - 5:12 pm | #
REI was cleaned out in the Twin Cities too - went there looking for after Xmas XC ski deals and almost everything was gone... summer & cruise stuff was being put out. I think they run their inventories differently than a 'for profit' operation... been a member since the late 70s... it has always been first come first serve. I'm not sure they are a good indicator.
I have almost no sympathy for Ukraine given the deliberate middle finger it has given Russia over the last few years.
It is in no sense 'north atlantic', or european and some large portion of its population is pro-Russian. Besides being Russia's bread basket for centuries, the Crimea is Russia's only warm water port to the Mediterranean.
They have provolked the bear, and the bear is always hungry. It will not tolerate Ukraine in NATO, and the NATO countries shouldn't touch it with a 500 mile pole.
So, when Ukraine says they need nat. gas, it is not surprising that Russia says, fine, just pay the price, promptly and including late payment penalties.
"If Germany/UK/France together were to attack with even half of their NATO fighters against Russia, Russian Air Forces would be toast about in a hour."
Germany would attack Russia again? The UK and France would go along?
Confessional? Ha! I'd like to see the day when the banks finally all line up at the confessional. Come clean and we might actually be able to start moving past this whole crisis.
Apple has long been a little culty, and fanbois worship a little too hard at Teh Cult of Teh Steve. Ask anybody who uses a Mac, and you'll quickly receive a 'true believer' spiel worthy of a Promise Keeper, but falling somewhat short of yelling Allah Akbhar!
The stock carries a similar Steve premium. And now it's gone. Do the fundamentals of the company change? Does their competitive advantage change? Does Steve really add that much? We'll find out.
.REI was cleaned out in the Twin Cities too - went there looking for after Xmas XC ski deals and almost everything was gone... summer & cruise stuff was being put out. I think they run their inventories differently than a 'for profit' operation... been a member since the late 70s... it has always been first come first serve. I'm not sure they are a good indicator. dryfly | 01.14.09 - 5:18 pm | #
One other thing I should mention is the clearance deals I've been seeing have been incredible (REI included, but really everywhere I go). That can drive a lot of "observable" shopping activity that doesn't translate into profits for the retailers
He had endocrine versus exocrine and the survival rates are significantly greater than exocrine. Often, the tumors with endocrine are benign. The disease does affect your hormone levels.
Explain...
Pancrease has both exo and endcrine secretions. Usually the pancrease is removed.
I would just say it is far from clear that Russia was behind the Yuschenko poisoning.
I could easily picture half a dozen other actors, including western intelligence services, as more likely conspirators. I don't rule Russia out, but as with the Polonium poisoning incident, it is far from cut and dried.
Where have you been? They've been reporting kitchen sink quarters for almost 1.5 years.
You actually think these firms have been marking their assets to market properly? If they were half of them would be instantly insolvent. You're kidding yourself if you think they've marking their assets realistically.
I mean, how many times did John Thain tell us his balance sheet was stronger than ever? Did you believe that crap?
Not all pancreatic cancers are adeno, not all are in the pancreatic head, and not all are resectable. So pancreatic tumor is nearly as generic as brain tumor.
My take is it will be negative, just how much is the question.
rc | 01.14.09 - 5:20 pm | #
Ya Think? Yeah it will be negative, my guess is -5.5% origionally and then later revised about -6.0%.
Strength in net exports due to imports falling faster than exports, perhaps some from govt spending, all federal, S&L should be a drag. Fixed investment will be a big drag on all 3 fronts (RRE, CRE and E&S), with RRE still the biggest drag of the 3, but CRE moving up fast on the outside. Might have some help from inventory investment, but that will be a statistical mirage, since it is all of the unwanted type. PCE off a cliff. Possible the deflator could be negative, which would help real GDP growth, but that would not be a healthy development.
CR, you usually parse this sort of stuff pretty well, is my thinking in line with yours or am I missing something.
Republican senators move to block bank-bailout bill"
Interestingly last night I was called into a telephone town hall meeting (from my congressman)on the subject of the Incoming Presidents stimulus package. After callers questions and comments a approval or disapproval vote was taken. Apposed carried by 77%. Second vote was, has all the money so far spent had a positive effect. 89% no.
Not trying to be flippant.
tg is a born & bred dope in a | 01.14.09 - 5:16 pm |
Nor am I. It's just that the claims in his article didn't make any sense to me.
I don't think by 'premiums' he's referring to the $50 face value on the Eagle since the Maple Leaf has the same nominal face value. I think he was just referring to the proof coins.
But no country that I know of allows gold coins to trade in conjunction with paper money at equal value. If any ever did, the gold would be replaced by paper pretty quickly.
off 241 near closed dealerships?
Lots of empty cre there too....
cd | 01.14.09 - 4:39 pm | #
You got it!
We already lost the 10K+ sq. ft. Mervyn's. Who is gonna rent that monster out? I wonder what they will sell/do?
Further down in RSM, we are slowly losing auto dealer buildings. First one closed up about a month ago to downsize in the auto mall. It was one of the Japanese makers. Thought they went out, but wife showed me they just down sized. Still, buildings are slowly becoming vacant.
Eric writes:
You actually think these firms have been marking their assets to market properly?
TPC | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 5:25 pm | #
I thought you were implying that these banks have been marking their assets properly.
A lot of these banks are insolvent. If they actually marked their assets to market they'd have no shareholder equity. But they're hanging on and marking assets every quarter hoping the market turns at some point.
On my drive home from work, I have to pass by the local row of auto dealers. Some have closed. I'm sure the business can't be good at any of the others, especially since I never see auto delivery rigs parked by the side of the road any more.
However, today I was surprised to see a rig parked... until I saw it was empty. It was there to take cars away.
Oil Slump Forces Rich Arab Countries to Run Deficits (Update2)
By Camilla Hall
Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Tumbling oil prices are forcing many of the richest Persian Gulf states to record budget deficits and limit a critical source of foreign investment for poorer Arab countries.
Central bank governors and finance ministers from the 22- member Arab League gathered in Kuwait City today for a week of meetings on the global financial crisis and Gulf efforts to create a single currency. The conference opened with a minute of silence for the more than 900 Palestinians killed in a 2 1/2-week Israeli offensive in the Gaza Strip.
Crude is now selling at below the budget break-even point for seven of the Arab worlds 10 top oil producers and Saudi Arabia, the worlds biggest exporter, is forecasting its first deficit in at least seven years. Poorer Arab states are facing a fall in foreign investment with Egypt expecting inflows to almost halve this year, according to EFG-Hermes Holding SAE, the largest Arab investment bank by market value.
We have to find ways to limit the impact which could hurt the Arab economy and make sure economic growth in Arab countries continues at appropriate levels, Kuwaiti Finance Minister Mustafa Jassim al-Shimali said, referring to the global crisis. We are not immune to its negative effects. Oil Slump Forces Rich Arab Countries to Run Deficits (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Wait, did they actually use the word Depressing !?
I guess it's a "depressing disinflation".
Depressing as in "depression"?
Grim and Depressing and Bears, OH MY!
The could have learned all that from reading CR.
Until futher notice the word "depression" will not be used in any official reports.
Another ray of sunshine for this economy.
Time to realize that we don't need another new building for the foreseeable future.
Wall Street is finally waking up to the fact that not only is equity rapidly disappearing, but leverage is being rapidly destroyed, not to return in most of our lifetimes.
In that respect this is the 1930s. How many folks are ready to return tothe days when investing meant putting your money at risk?
This market is going to be very different without all of the hedge funds and daytraders.
As for the rest of the economy, well, it is the same. No more house investing or flipping. Gee, tragic.
An entire cable tv network or three will be gone after this.
Just skip the darned squirrel recipes.
And no roasted ponies either!!!
Buckle up, this is an entire generation's wealth evaporating as we speak.
Someday this war's gonna end...
dr munch writes:
The could have learned all that from reading CR.
dr munch | 01.14.09 - 3:19 pm | #
Who says they didn't?
"deflation" is also to be struck from all official documents.
CR, we are waiting with bated breath for your declaration, 'Yes, it IS a depression.'
Thereafter, we can await your proceeding to, 'Yes, this is the GREATER Depression.'
I see movement on your part!
What are the odds that GGP gets that financing they need this year?
How many folks are ready to return to the days when investing meant putting your money at risk?
Citizen AllenM | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 3:20 pm | #
I shuddered when you said that - like a cold breeze blew through. Give warning next time.
wow, i don't read the language of the beige book regularly enough to guage the tone relative to past reports, but that language seemed GRIM! govt. publications typically use such dry, vague, broad terms and don't really use colorful words like "grim and depressing". that is what jumped out to me as very different...but i may be wrong on that.
does anyone here read the text on a regular basis and can comment on the tone relative to past releases and want to pontificate on this?
The 10% drop in December retail sales, year over year, is, to me, the clearest and loudest signal that a depression is now underway.
'Depression' is popularly defined as a 10% or greater drop in GDP.
FYI -- historically, all downturns were called 'depressions.' However, after the Lesser Depression, TPTB moved to using the less 'depressing' term, recession, in its stead.
Well, as somebody who was looking at buying a rental property here at ground zero Phoenix, I still see heroes and fools buying and paying waaay too much for property.
There is no point in buying until there will be a return. That might be quite a while.
You want a real chill dryfly- Alligator
Nothing Down
Cap rate 15%.
Those are terms that will bring some warmth to my pocketbook.
Someday this war's gonna end...
But the economy is going to recover by second half of 2009. Didn't you hear?
What are the odds that GGP gets that financing they need this year?
\t 12th Percentile | \t \t \t \t01.14.09 - 3:24 pm | #
The holdout last time was Citi, wasn't it? Wonder what's going to happen come February.
whew.... madoff to remain free!
the man from nantucket, I read it every month ... the beige book does contain some colorful language at times, but this might be the most negative section I've ever read. "Frozen" "exceptionally weak" "grim and depressing" "activity was very limited" "shrinking rapidly".
No "cliff diving" though ...
best to all
Wonder what's going to happen come February.
I'm thinking we may get some real time mark to market on what a mall is worth these days.
I don't think the people at SPG are looking forward to that despite what they say about buying opportunities.
Re: GGP
I guess they've already requested an extension:
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINBNG14609520090114?rpc=44
Even government bureaucrats have to concede that this is unlike anything we've seen before.
Sadly, it appears that Treasury and the Fed have yet to recognize the creation and pop of the monster debt bubble.
Just skip the darned squirrel recipes.
And no roasted ponies either!!!
Citizen AllenM | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 3:20 pm | #
Kill-joy....
"grim and depressing"
Conjure says, "Ben, you ain't seen nothin' yet."
When will we see more insurance companies come up short?
When will we see more insurance companies come up short?
Economist Moe Howard 3SU | 01.14.09 - 3:32 pm | #
Soon, hopefully. Although I'm enjoying watching HIG crater here.
ot hitting 850 today, I guess.
What are the odds that GGP gets that financing they need this year?
About the same odds that I'm going to be dating Carrie Underwood this year.
hey anyone have a read on jpmorgan and citi moving earnings announcement up to Thursday..
is this a short squeeze in making...or to deflect unemployment report...
Somethings up and I can't figure it out...
On the other hand, after the cliff dive, if the bungee cords break and you go splat, then the terms "grim", "depressing", and "frozen" would be reasonable descriptors, no?
I like the "ground to a halt" comment about Big D. Considering the number of strip centers being expanded or built in the last two years around where I worked I'm not at all surprised.
Eric - the last 30 mins on the market have worked wonders in the past couple of weeks. Beware the stalking bull?!
Ben the genius will go on about stimulating aggregate demand.
Is it a big surprise that an economy dependent on expansion and debt came to a crashing halt?
Forget about discussing solutions, just once, I'd like to hear Bernanke talk about the problem in a cogent manner. Perhaps, it'll finally happen when he is older and reading textbooks written about the stupidity that reigned during this period.
is this a short squeeze in making...or to deflect unemployment report...
Sets up the Obama rally starting Wednesday.
Market opens in about 15 minutes.
People sometimes fail to remember that loans are investments. The consequences are being meted for people investing money in ways that they would never have invested their OWN hard-earned money. Reckoning is a slow-moving glacier.
What are the chances the market gets a big pump job next week? With JPM and C reporting earlier than expected, lots of bad news this week (although it won't stop this week), and a sell-off on only ok volume, it could be a set-up for a jam job. We could also fall off a cliff at any point. I dunno...
Buckle up, this is an entire generation's wealth evaporating as we speak.
Citizen AllenM | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 3:20 pm | #
I know guys in the late '60s and '70s, retired or about to retire, who kept their money in the market for the return it brought. Their portfolios are now cut in half. In retrospect they see it was idiocy to keep risking their retirement funds in the market in the same period when they actually needed those funds.
But at the time the market was perfectly safe, or at least had a limited downside. Everyone said so.
ha, cd beat me to it as I was typing.
anon,
that was where I was leaning...
Just skip the darned squirrel recipes.
And no roasted ponies either!!!
Citizen AllenM | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 3:20 pm | #
My Dad just came back from a trip to South America this Fall, and told me about eating Guinea Pig at a restaurant, so don't complain about squirrel. Besides, it's good.
"does anyone here read the text on a regular basis "
the BB is generally written in something approaching english, with considerable candor for a fed gubmint publication. it was back in'02 as well, when i bothered reading them.
Speaking of eating squirrels and ponies.... anyone else ever eat raw horse (basashi) while in Japan?
I just wanted to mention that I am lurking again after not lurking for a few weeks...
"Everyone said so."
Conjure says, "Like hell "everyone" did."
mp here. Conjure started screaming "Get out!" on November 22, 2007.
anyone else ever eat raw horse (basashi) while in Japan?
Mr. Sparkle | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 3:41 pm | #
Nay.
Raw horse is damn good. Damn travesty you can't eat it in the US.
uh oh...
Republican senators move to block bank-bailout bill
Republican senators move to block bank-bailout bill - MarketWatch
Bear in mind, except for no Greenspan, this is the same gang of lightweights who cried deflation in 2002, enabling the run-up that created this mess, then denied there was a significant problem until last fall. When the Fed starts to write like they ran over their pet puppy on the way to work this morning I start to wonder.
mp-I remember and remember your call on buying banks later on rally...that was a beauty...
Bob Dobbs, you're speaking about my husband. He was really, really looking forward to retiring soon...
At least he still has a job.
"does anyone here read the text on a regular basis "
the BB is generally written in something approaching english, with considerable candor for a fed gubmint publication. it was back in'02 as well, when i bothered reading them.
Anonymous | 01.14.09 - 3:40 pm | #
On top of that - any one dig deeper & read the report on their district. I just did it for the 9th (Minneapolis)... wasn't as bad as I expected and not 'depressing' but not 'bubbly' either.
How does the report from your region stack up with your own eyeballs?
@Terry - booo! Awful, just awful.
"mp-I remember and remember your call on buying banks later on rally...that was a beauty..."
Yes, and if you followed that trade after the Bernanke Put, you'll recall that we made money on it.
Conjure says, "Have a nice day."
Conjure says, "Like hell "everyone" did."
mp here. Conjure started screaming "Get out!" on November 22, 2007.
\t mp | \t \t \t \t01.14.09 - 3:42 pm | #
People on this blog don't count as part of "everyone." This isn't the place for people who like common wisdom. But the common wisdom is what most people go by.
I told them. But their investment counselors told them other things, according to the common wisdom. And had a pretty good track record. Until they didn't.
it's amazing (ok, it's really not) that Maria can't tear herself away from Madoff to acknowledge the market crater-job.
And to everyone on that show that keeps asking: HE'S OUT ON BAIL, BECAUSE HE HASN'T BEEN INDICTED, MUCH LESS CONVICTED, OF ANY CRIME. Get over it.
Raw horse is damn good. Damn travesty you can't eat it in the US.
ille_vir | 01.14.09 - 3:43 pm | #
That may be because it's grass fed, or at least it isn't fattened on corn. I suspect that grass fed beef w/o hormones, etc., would taste good as well. I've had horse, and I like it. I'll pass on the dog.
thanks CR and Anon, always good to get info about tone and language relative to past releases, makes a difference about conclusions I draw from it. it's still bad but it's less worse than i first thought...kinda like being dead is less worse than being dead, naked, with rigor mortis and left in the town square for all to see.
Republican senators move to block bank-bailout bill
pissing in the wind. The way EESA is written, they need to get enough votes to reject the disbursement; they can't simply hold up the vote. Good luck in a Democratic Congress.
"People on this blog don't count as part of "everyone." "
Conjure says, "Oh."
Ahem... sorry to have disappeared so suddenly in Nov.
But, I'm BACK!
Genius financial advisers were easy to find during the great boom. Not so much now.
What's going on with the Dow? Is Paulson speaking again?
But, I'm BACK!
Capitulation | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 3:48 pm | #
Why didn't you bring CSC back with you?
Raw horse is damn good. Damn travesty you can't eat it in the US.
I don't know about horse, but they serve rocky mountain oysters in the U.S.A.
Gasbag "sources close to the company".... why hasn't the SEC put this guy in prison yet?
RE: Citi
It is going to be awful hard for them to pay the billions back to taxpayers after they ditch all their businesses. At least we tried, right?
Horses have high body temp, like around 101F, I think, so I've heard they have much less parasites, and are better than other animals for eating raw. Grass fed cows are good too, but I'm not confident enough in them to eat it raw.
Howeever, I have eaten kitfo:
Kitfo - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
IT'S A SPACE JAM
I don't know about horse, but they serve rocky mountain oysters in the U.S.A.
Anonymous | 01.14.09 - 3:50 pm | #
On "Fear Factor" anyway
MP --- I'd like to testify. 38, married, two kids. I was buy-and-hold, index funds, large cap, small cap, international, emerging -- 401K, IRA, Roth IRA... you know the drill.
I got completely out of equities in February 2008 based on you & the collective wisdom here. The "save" has been just shy of $100K.
Completely baffled as to what to do next, but thanks fellas.
pissing in the wind. The way EESA is written, they need to get enough votes to reject the disbursement; they can't simply hold up the vote. Good luck in a Democratic Congress.
Basel Too | 01.14.09 - 3:48 pm | #
If Dems were real shits they would let the GOPers 'kill it' via a cloture battle - and then ramp up th emedia machine to blame the GOPers on the 'market disaster' that will inevitably follow [whether the bill passes or not].... anything to continue the 'blame the GOP' well into their own rule. If the GOP was smart they would get real small for the next two years and let the Dems 'bask in the glory'... current crop of GOPers aren't too smart.
Completely baffled as to what to do next, but thanks fellas.
query_tool | 01.14.09 - 3:52 pm | #
You know that old saying about eggs and baskets?
If Dems were real shits they would let the GOPers 'kill it' via a cloture battle...
Possible. Politicians don't move unless you cattle-prod them. Then, of course, it will be too late.
Already is, I think.
If Dems were real shits they would let the GOPers 'kill it' via a cloture battle
dryfly | 01.14.09 - 3:53 pm | #
They can't. Congress has to actively vote against it. A cloture battle means Obama gets the money.
"Completely baffled as to what to do next..."
Conjure says, "Nothing."
"For now at least."
It's beyond me how Bernanke viewed unaffordable housing as wealth. Mind boggling.
And how did he miss the credit bubble?
Bernanke should be fired and never allowed to manage credit again.
The "save" has been just shy of $100K.
query-tool
Two thumbs up! I did the same for my parents.
dow pings off 8140 this iteratio
...Fed's Beige Book on CRE: "Grim and Depressing"...
But "better than expected" . Right?
How many folks are ready to return to the days when investing meant putting your money at risk?
Elegant and concise. Gosh, I need to learn how to do that. Bravo, well said.
Eating raw horse in Japan
So one could say Japan's Mr. Ed spread is improving?
groan
;p
yeah, but I sold my SKF position today! Hooray!
I take my double-digit gains, and get out... even if I could get more.
God bless SKF. Haven't lost money on it yet.
@dryfly 3:53
Perhaps, from the fact that the parties aren't doing the standard partisan blame-shifting / finger-pointing that you would expect, we might conclude that there are higher level forces at work?
In my naive days I'd have said that there were still some honest patriots on both sides, trying to do the right thing for the country as best they saw it. But now I'd say it's more likely they're both dangling from a common set of puppet strings held by the Masters of the Bond Market... which is not a monolith although it has more common interests than dems & reps... Hmm...
Guinea pig is the new rabbit...
I dumped all SDS for a decent 10% gain overall. I started averaging in too early but also nailed my last tranche on Jan 2. I'm not saying I am a trading wizard or don't have losses, but feels good! Good to have a profit and good to get out of that slippery drug of an ETF.
When you say squirrel is the new filet mignon, that's when I'm going vegetarian.
Wow, if the PPT cannot get this to a 'Dow closed down less than 150,' I think panic will be in the air.
C'mon, shysters, show us what you've got!
mp here. Conjure started screaming "Get out!" on November 22, 2007.
mp | 01.14.09 - 3:42 pm | #
yep, recall the day - felt better about bailing in the late june timeframe - missed the very tippy top but skipped the elevator ride down as well...
The scariest thing is that I think no one sensible is in control: not the Fed, not the Treasury, not Wall St., not Congress and not the Executive.
We're in such a pickle, that no one has the capacity to point out the problem: debt, overcapacity, generational malinvestment, etc. For any credible leader to do so would undermine the entire system.
No, the answer is to perpetuate the current allocation and hope for the best.
We are not being run by geniuses. Not the least.
Does GLD have to go all the way down to the mid-$60's (from today's $79.8x) before it's a good point for hedging the inevitable inflation some years out?
[If Dems were real shits they would let the GOPers 'kill it' via a cloture battle...]
Huh. So standing in the way of the TARP is suicide? Seems to me the first installment has been a big loser for the citizenry. Just a bunch of loot for the banks to hoard, pay bonuses and dividends with while they sacrifice employees at the firings altar and let businesses die on the vine.
Need mo TARP!
SoCal Construction Report
WE FUCKED, PROPER!
..............................
"Until I know how we spent it [the first $350-billion of TARP], why we spent it and where it is and how it's going to be paid back, I think it'd be irresponsible for me to vote for the next $350 billion," said House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio.
JimP,
I've tried it on the long side, but haven't liked the action. Flat now, and I think there is more deleveraging to come. My 2c.
No, getting in gold at today's price will serve you well, Jim.
Based on my calculations, if every dollar in M2 was backed by gold (as it was up to '71), the exchange rate would be $4-6K per ounce of gold.
We'll get there in two or three years.
And, if gold is good, gold mining stocks are even better (high fixed costs --> incredible increase in profit when the top line grows).
Citizen AllenM writes:
Well, as somebody who was looking at buying a rental property here at ground zero Phoenix, I still see heroes and fools buying and paying waaay too much for property.
Citizen AllenM: Do you also see falling rental rates as a BIG problem right now? YoY rents fell by 10% where I'm looking.
No way I look at anything that's not 20% the ceapest offer on MLS right now and I have to see signs of stabilizing rents.
P.L.
Sounds like what we've been expecting from CRE for a while now. That whole mess will cost at least a trillion dollars.
Oops, I'm with s-; I will be going 100% gold mining stocks and gold, but only after a nice interim drop in the market (gold mining stocks have reverted to being correlated with the broad market, again).
Nightstand cowboy's gathering dust.
"gold mining stocks are even better"
with a caveat re: mine nationalizations and shakedowns
Come on Americans, this depression crap sounds so...slavic. What is the matter with you? You wanna be lousy copycats or what?
Keeping up-to-date on the financial crisis in other countries....
Ireland may see its bond rating drop. (FT/Alphaville)
FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » I, Ireland
News about Iceland's contraction.
Economic Disaster Area
FDIC: FIL-3-2009: The SAR Activity Review by the Numbers, November 2008 Issue
Bank Secrecy Act
The Sar Activity Review by the Numbers, November 2008 Issue FIL-3-2009
January 14, 2009
Summary: The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) has issued the eleventh edition of The SAR Activity Review By the Numbers. The report includes information through June 30, 2008.
Highlights:
FinCEN has issued the eleventh edition of The SAR Activity Review By the Numbers. The report compiles numerical data gathered from Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs) filed primarily by depository institutions. SAR data is also compiled for certain segments of the following industries: insurance, securities and futures, money services businesses, as well as casinos and card clubs.
As of June 30, 2008, over 6 million SARs had been filed with FinCEN. Of that total, 3.7 million - or 62 percent - were filed by depository institutions.
Bank Secrecy Act/Structuring/Money Laundering continues to be the leading characterization of suspicious activity by depository institutions.
The first two quarters of 2008 reiterated the continued upward trend of mortgage loan fraud and identity theft. During the same period, reported instances of terrorist financing have continued to decline every year since 2004.
Mortgage loan fraud SARs increased by approximately 40 percent, consumer loan fraud filings increased 35 percent, and wire transfers fraud SARs increased 87 percent compared to the corresponding six-month reporting period in 2007.
The SAR Activity Review By the Numbers is published twice annually covering two filing periods: January 1 to June 30, and July 1 to December 31. The report can be accessed at: http://www.fincen.gov/news_room/rp/files/sar_by_numb_11.pdf. 419K (PDF Help)
The SAR Activity Review By the Numbers is a companion report to The SAR Activity Review Trends, Tips & Issues.
I agree, bg-.
I presume Canada and Australia will resist the urge. But, I have little faith and confidence that the U.S., South America, and South Africa will.
I will put my faith and confidence in mining management, as they know those risks very well, I presume.
What do you think, bg-?
love the cnbs recap - 'madoff mania trumps earnings' or some such is the daily recap...
uh, yeah, madoff dropped the market today - retail numbers and the beige book and broader economic conditions were strictly secondary.
thanks, GE, for reading the mind of every market participant so effectively yet again. btw, how's the stock doing?
"But, I have little faith and confidence "
don't forget central asia and central africa, which is where much of the yellow stuff is. isn't NEM's #1 or 2 mine in one of the -stans?
Re gold mining stocks - would you want to differentiate between miners who have hedged their top line (i.e. sold gold forward) versus those who are still exposed to it?
or indonesia, which has been shaking FCX and NEM down pretty regularly since gold crossed 500
Come on Americans, this depression crap sounds so...slavic. What is the matter with you? You wanna be lousy copycats or what?
One nation, under pharmaceuticals, so help me prozac, with viagra or steroids for all
"would you want to differentiate between miners who have hedged their top line"
theoretically the hui versus the xau is supposed to do that for you. at that point, you really need to do DD on a company-by-company basis and get to know their actual book
Yep, lots of risk, I agree, bg-.
Perhaps, from the fact that the parties aren't doing the standard partisan blame-shifting / finger-pointing that you would expect, we might conclude that there are higher level forces at work?
Wisdom Speaker | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 3:58 pm | #
There will be blame-shifting & finger-pointing galore before this is over. But at a certain point the Dems will have to actually 'govern' - GOP needs to make them do it - that is the job of a 'minority party'. I'm all in favor of DeMint et. al. forcing a roll call vote... put everyone on the record. But they better be careful - it is easy to get out maneuvered & be the scapegoat for what will happen anyway - that is how majority parties can sometimes retain their majority even though they clearly can't govern. I've seen that way too many times from both parties over my lifetime.
Citigroup, Huntington Lead Bank Index to 13-Year Low (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Citigroup, Huntington Lead Bank Index to 13-Year Low (Update1)
CITIGROUP which moved up its earnings announcement by six days to Jan. 16, may report a $4.5 billion loss...
Come on Americans, this depression crap sounds so...slavic. What is the matter with you? You wanna be lousy copycats or what?
supafly73 | 01.14.09 - 4:06 pm | #
IIRC, Slavic comes from the Viking term for slave, and to an extent, that's what we've become. Slaves to work and possessions.
I got completely out of equities in February 2008 based on you & the collective wisdom here. The "save" has been just shy of $100K.
Moved my 401k and other ivestments into "stable value" and bank CDs based on CalcRisk's predictions. Saved about $20k from disaster (I'm younger than you).
Slavic peoples - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
bzzzzt
S&P is off over 9% (from its high, this year, 2009). It may be a second-wave crash.
A depressing article on CRE and no one mentioned SRS? Sheesh. I am trying to make money here. (or money back as the case may be)
So, Ben, Paul, Tim, and other PPT schmucks/shylocks/shysters:
We hoi polloi are to be comforted that the Dow 'only' closed down less than 250?
I think not.
Should be another lovely initial claims report tomorrow.
"I'm younger than you"
wish a little reckless youth had motivated me to pick up a little bit of "the tizza" - TZA - or to set those FAZers on "kill"
Hawley Smoot...that Iceland link is excellent.
"Robert Wade is a New Zealander, who has lived and worked in Britain and US for past 4 decades. Worked as an economist at World Bank, and taught at MIT, Princeton, Brown universities in US, and at Sussex University and LSE in Britain. He won the Leontief Prize in Economics in 2008, which some describe as an alternative Nobel Prize for heterodox economists (previous winners include J.K. Galbraith and Amartya Sen). He is a member of The Financial Times Economists Forum, a group of 50 economists described by the Financial Times as 50 of the worlds most influential economists.
Ten years ago he wrote several studies of the East Asian financial crisis. He has visited Iceland several times over the past few years. From August 2007 he has been giving public talks and interviews in Iceland about the growing dangers of a major crisis, drawing on his knowledge of what happened in East Asia.
In early July he published an article in The Financial Times titled Iceland pays the price for financial excess. In this article he rang the alarm bell even louder than before. The article said little that was new to Icelanders, but because it was published in a highly respected international newspaper, it attracted attention in Iceland. The PM was asked for his reaction to it, and dismissed it as worth no more attention than a letter in DV. His reaction was yet another of many examples where our political leaders failed to pay attention to warning signs at a time when they could have taken action to reduce the damage which Icelands society is now experiencing."
So there was someone pointing to the pending implosion, and was dismissed out of hand. Nobody wants to hear bad news.
Colorful language that will appear in the next Beige Book:
"immanent global collapse"
"political repercusions"
"ideologically-driven deregulation"
"Iceland"
"future of capitalism"
"mustard-seed moron"
"Calculated Risk" (mentioned in the footnotes)
"S&P is off over 9% (from its high, this year, 2009). It may be a second-wave crash."
but each successive 9% loss involves less dollars, so its all good
Just got back from In-n-Out burger.
Had a 3x3, plain.
I realize this is anecdotal and seen with bearish eyes.
However, I have gone to this joint either Wednesday or Thursday between 12 and 12:30 for lunch the last 3 weeks.
Yeah, I know not the best diet, but some great fast food.
Anyway, traffic seems waaaaaaaaaaaaaay
down and this is in the Foothill Ranch area.
A year from 12-3 that place was packed. No seating, even outside was a tough seat. Wait for food at least 10 mins.
Now, maybe a 5 min. wait for food and seating is available.
People this is In-n-Out burger.
A triple cheese, fries, and large soda cost all of $7.
If this place is losing patronage we are in def. TROUBLE!
BTW, food is fresh and cooked on the spot. No heaters or frozen fries here.
Again, just my own persojnal evidence.
However, either people have gone cold turkey on the place, have left the 'hood, or are feeling the pinch.
My bet is on numero 3.
Roubini's latest on the stock market:
With my forecast of 2009 earnings per share for S&P500 firms being in the 50 to 60 dollars range and with P/E ratio likely to be in the 10 to 12 range given a severe global recession the S&P500 could bottom at some point in 2009 at best at a level of 720 and, in a worse scenario, as low as 500 or 600. So, the worst is indeed still ahead of us.
Let's say 550 average, ok? LOL
Well, maybe I just have to call the United Nations. Within days they will do the infamous Potatoe Sack Bombing Thunder Runs! PSBTR! (Like they do in Africa, really bad boys). In order to save the village and all that...
So if your kids is killed, while sleeping in a tent, by the Happy Potatoe Sack From Sweden, well, sh*t happens! REMEMBER, WE ARE HERE TO HELP!
Does GLD have to go all the way down to the mid-$60's (from today's $79.8x) before it's a good point for hedging the inevitable inflation some years out?
JimPortlandOR | 01.14.09 - 4:01 pm | #
I'd say yes. Gold should break below the $730 of last November. Deflation affects all asset classes and PMs are just an asset class.
I see that others are more optimistic than I, but that's my take.
A lurker here who thinks mp, maxedoutmama, mock turtle and a few others are terrific. I also like the poetry of Jas and Pavel (not associating the two of them).
mp- I got my family and friends out of stock and into cash in early October 2007. The market was at 13900. You were one of the voices inside my head when I did that. Thanks, and thank conjure for me as well.
Now I'm called a lot by my dad and sisters about the future, and I'm telling them to stay away from stocks until the Dow goes under 7000, around April and after a post-Obama rally or two. I also called out major asset deflation which will continue through this year, followed by hyperinflation (kicking off the bottom of the pool) beginning at some point in 2010.
Time to go back to my management consulting and terminal lurking.
Tanta vive!!!
I was at a venture capital conference the other day in Boston.
The speakers indicated that there was still plenty of VC money out there for small deals ($25 million and lower). Follow on funding is giving lower valuations on all industries, regardless of trendiness.
Initial seed money and angel financing is still strong. This is not so much due to any economic strength. Quite the opposite. Start-ups are finding much more good talent available for less money and super cheap leases.
However, either people have gone cold turkey on the place, have left the 'hood, or are feeling the pinch.
I know half a dozen wall streeters that brown bag their lunches now. They all said that a $10 NYC deli lunch was too expensive given what has happened.
It is a rude awakening.
"Deflation affects all asset classes and PMs are just an asset class."
Thank you, God. With all of the goldbugs around here, I thought I'd never see anyone here actually write that.
"but each successive 9% loss involves less dollars"
this thought has occurred to me quite a few times watching the equity portion of my IRA melt back from 42% to 38% or so
on retail anyone have any information about Dillards?
" I thought I'd never see anyone here actually write that."
the market has already said it for you in regards to Pt, Pd, and Ag.
My pile of yellow stuff says to your hat: "Don't hate me because I'm beautiful"
A quick thank you note to CR & friends. In December 07, someone gave me "Financial Armageddon," which I read while waiting for the movers--our landlord had been foreclosed on. The book seemed shrill but possibly not totally nutty, so I got into reading various blogs, some mainstream, some not. Calculated Risk scared me the most. It wasn't shrill screaming about impending doom (CR doesn't do that)--it was that CR is relentlessly factual. Up til then I'd had an 'aggressive growth' portfolio. Moved everything into much safer territory by mid-January. I am SO glad I did this. My mom, my siblings, many of my friends, people who didnt' make the change back then, all their 401(k)s are halved.
I don't know what's coming, except that it'll be unpleasant and probably drawn out. I'm truly grateful to all of you.
Ukraine welcomes EU call to sue gas companies
By MONIKA SCISLOWSKA 1 hour ago
WISLA, Poland (AP) The Ukrainian president on Wednesday welcomed a European Union call for legal action in its bitter gas dispute with Russia, saying it would give Kiev the chance to prove it is not to blame for leaving many Europeans without heat.
President Viktor Yushchenko's remarks came hours after the European Commission president, Jose Manuel Barroso, warned the Russian and Ukrainian state-run gas companies that he will urge European energy companies to sue them unless they move quickly to restore gas supplies.
The article requested is no longer available.
This second article is a big deal because it means:
1. no resolution until Saturday at the earliest
2. not highlighted here, but EU representation not invited - just each importing country
Russia proposes summit of EU gas importers
Wed Jan 14, 2009 3:40pm GMT
MOSCOW, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev proposed on Wednesday to hold a summit of European Union's importers of Russian gas in Moscow on January 17 to discuss the situation with Russian gas supplies via Ukraine.
Russia proposes summit of EU gas importers
| Markets
| Reuters
Thank you, God. With all of the goldbugs around here, I thought I'd never see anyone here actually write that.
mp | 01.14.09 - 4:20 pm | #
LOL... but we all know real goldbugs don't even denominate in 'dollars'... its barrels per ounce... square feet per ounce... etc., so what do they care what happens to 'dollars'? Well except for maybe their pay check conversion.... dollars per hour into ounces per hour.
With my forecast of 2009 earnings per share for S&P500 firms being in the 50 to 60 dollars range
Roubini must be using operating earnings. Even 2009 S&P 500 earnings in the $40 - $50 range is a stretch.
Let's have a common passport for all citizens of CHIMERICA (China + America) and free movement of labor, and ALL problems solved. After that, there won't be enough houses idle in America!
We can then bring education budget in America down to zero, since all brain-power-required positions will be taken by Chinese.
We then outsource America's armed forces to the Chinese, they seem to pay good. And indirectly, they have been already paying for the growth and support of our US troops and deployments through the purchase of Uncle Sam bonds.
There it is, credit and financial crisis solved, all at once.
Have a great day!
first it was RRE, then it was CRE, yesterday we found that P(ublic)RE's funding (taxes, borrowing) was stalling out.
but, most sadly, OCDan informs us of the impending slump in B(urger)RE.
Sob!
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
"A Pennsylvania couple is behind bars after police say they failed to call the bank when a glitch put an extra $175,000 in their account."
I would have thought it was just Ben doing his thing.
Energyecon,
What is Russia trying to accommplish?
dryfly - when will I be able to consult for an ounce of gold per day?
I can't wait !
Dryfly wrote., so what do they care what happens to 'dollars'?
I use them to wrap my little yellow buddies up before I bury them.
Sudden collapse of mexico possible.
U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible - El Paso Times
Would that be bad for tourism?
Got timeshare?
Anonymous writes:
Let's have a common passport for all citizens of CHIMERICA (China + America) and free movement of labor, and ALL problems solved. After that, there won't be enough houses idle in America!
That's fine with me. I have a big stake in several Melamine mines. I beat Pat Robertson to the punch.
"A Pennsylvania couple is behind bars after police say they failed to call the bank when a glitch put an extra $175,000 in their account."
To bad, a quick wire transfer to a Brazilian bank and a couple of plane tickets would have done the trick. Just shows you need to have that valid passport at all times.
Ben Frank'll Tank Bernanke writes:
Sudden collapse of mexico possible.
EPT HOME - El Paso Times ci_11444354
Would that be bad for tourism?
Tourism already shot. The kidnappers have taken to kidnapping Mexicans with US connections.
Just shows you need to have that valid passport at all times.
irreverent | 01.14.09 - 4:27 pm | #
There are parts of Brazil where you will be the king of the city with that kind of cash. (over $350k Brasilian reals)
the market has already said it for you in regards to Pt, Pd, and Ag.
They are, after all, primarily industrial metals, whatever 'precious' component some may ascribe.
Pt is truly rare also, but just doesn't have the emotional pull of that yellow stuff.
"What is Russia trying to accommplish?"
Well, Ukraine has the main huge gas distribution center towards Europe and Russia has all the gas...who pays what and when, basically.
I use them to wrap my little yellow buddies up before I bury them.
the_economist | 01.14.09 - 4:26 pm | #
LOL!
Next shoe to drop.... heck its RAINING shoes
Mexico collapsed shortly after Texas beat the crap out them. They have never recovered and won't until the Spanish "Peninsulare" elite are dealt with as they were in France and Russia.
Well, Meredith Whitney is as bearish as ever...
whitney just torched the bansk on cnbc
Tim try this link on DDS, it may or may not work for you:
https://www.bnyjaywalk.com/jaywalk/PDFViewer.asp?mscssid=5S8RITC2N2MNAYYUU0J9IYG5KZ8HRL88&FileID=20062062
Angry Saver | 01.14.09 - 4:25 pm | #
Divide and conquer - individual bilateral negotiations excluding the EU government - crack EU solidarity and permanently snuff out NATO expansionism (speculating a bit, but chess is the national pastime in Russia).
Bulgaria, Slovakia and Moldova are the hardest hit in the gas shut down. Core EU countries, not so much. But the shutdown is an instant depression in some of the countries already on the edge...
Potential Landlord.
The situation here in Arizona is going to be very bad for quite a while.
Consider this, we are still finishing some houses, while the population living here is falling, and thousands of houses are empty and in the foreclosure pipeline.
Rents falling? By how much is going to be the accurate question.
Revenue here is falling off a cliff.
Business here is doing likewise.
All I can say is that this will be a fascinating year.
Talk to me next year, or contemplate when you would like your cheap housing next to the golf course.
Right now everybody is anchored in the prices of the last five years.
The bottom will be when you can cashflow a house you pay cash for at 10%, as there will be no investor mortgages available.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Interesting Times writes:
\tdryfly - when will I be able to consult for an ounce of gold per day?
Interesting Times | 01.14.09 - 4:25 pm | #
-----
I second this remark!
I'll be glad to "just" get paid in Gold American Eagles instead of a paycheck. Heck, give me a gold coin + silver coins to make the difference and let me worry about the conversion...
Republican senators move to block bank-bailout bill
Political theater, since the bill was written to make it virtually impossible to stop the funds. In the most difficult scenario, Obama could offer to abide by restrictions Congress puts in later and to give Elizabeth Warren's oversight some teeth to get 34 Senators to go along with him. He might well do that anyway, without being force. I doubt he'll have to.
Of course, for a minority that barely has blocking ability anyway political theater is about all they can do, and potentially very important in the future. If the Republicans become the anti-bailout party, Obama has to do a really outstanding and popular job with the rest of the TARP or hand them a whopper of a political asset. This is how politics is supposed to work.
Speaking of ponies. I want one that shits skittles and farts rainbows.
"its barrels per ounce" LOL I hope we are talking whiskey.
I know it sounds nuts but I think the only way to save the economy is for governments start making purchases of gold at regular intervals. We need a flight out of dollars to stimulate growth. I do not think even the best intended stimulus plans will capture the fire needed to change the depression mindset developing. Our currency has to be second fiddle instead of the safe haven.
Different goldbug take here.
http://www.professorfekete.com/articles%5CAEFOpenTheMint.pdf
POIC,
Think those options only come in the unicorn model...
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/SW4QjNGaz6I/AAAAAAAAHYY/9fulHKk-s0g/s1600-h/trichetfinger.JPG
In conclusion, the Feds measures are growing in risk. First, it is assuming some collateral that the open market has shunned. And second, the Feds exit strategy becomes increasingly hazy with rising non-borrowed reserves; the risk of inflation is on the move.
News N Economics: You should care about the surge in non-borrowed reserves
"Think those options only come in the unicorn model... ;-)"
Unicorn, pony as long as it farts rainbows I'll be happy.
"this is an entire generation's wealth evaporating as we speak"
That depends on which definition of wealth you are using.
If you mean paper wealth, or even market value of assets minus market value of liabilities, wealth is dropping. That's because most families have volatile market value assets (stocks, homes, cars), but have fixed-principal liabilities (mortgages, car loans). For an individual, a foreclosure or bankruptcy makes their wealth look greater (or their shortfall look smaller).
If you mean the actual stuff people own, and they actual services they receive, the funny thing is wealth isn't disappearing nearly as rapidly. There is both overall deflation (e.g., gas prices, clothing), and a much stronger asset price deflation (e.g., stocks, houses).
If you now make $500/month less, but the type of house you want to buy is now $1500/month less, are you more or less wealthy?
Ocdan,
off 241 near closed dealerships?
Lots of empty cre there too....
apple shares halted pending news.
per mrktwtch
Couple takes the $175,000 mistake.
"The two were arraigned Tuesday on theft and other charges and jailed in lieu of $100,000 bail. A public defender was being assigned."
I'll point out the obvious and wonder why Madoff is still not in jail. If you say not indicted then I will ask why hasn't he been indicted and how is he under house arrest if no charges have been brought.
The legal system is not blind or fair.
I use them to wrap my little yellow buddies up before I bury them.
the_economist | 01.14.09 - 4:26 pm | #
LOL!
nades | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 4:29 pm | #
I agree - that was pretty funny!
Apple stock halted, news pending.
Oracle saddled with monument to tough times - MarketWatch
Jobs taking leave of absence until june
"I use them to wrap my little yellow buddies up before I bury them.
the_economist | 01.14.09 - 4:26 pm | #"
Given that my wife is Chinese that sentence has a different, rather sinister meaning (:
aapl ceo and god Steve Jobs steps dow
aapl uh oh
San Jose city officials hope Oracle will eventually move employees into the building. Most of its 17 stories remain unfurnished. Thought it looks impressive from afar, a closer inspection reveals a layer of accumulated filth on its broad, blue windows
Re: Mexico Collapse
Gee ya think, Oil prices in the tank and output falling like a rock, so much for #1 source of income
Construction collapsing in the U.S. and unemployemnt rising, time for reverse migration going south over the rio grande, so much for #2 source of forex (transfers from illegals to family back down south)
Nobody in US has cash or the inclination to go on expensive vacations, ie tourism shot, not sure the rank but has to be up there.
Only exports source of forex left is drugs.
Adios Mexico
Gotta wonder if his cancer is back. Poor guy...
Jobs taking leave of absence until june
Dave of SV | 01.14.09 - 4:41 pm | #
Glad I do not have shares.
Dave of SVwrites:
\tJobs taking leave of absence until june
Dave of SV | 01.14.09 - 4:41 pm | #
----
First, they took our jobs!
Now, they are taking our Jobs!
Mix in a bad MacWorld and what is an Apple Fanatic suppose to do?
Well NATO and the EU love the Ukraine so much, why don't they just pay the bill? Russia isn't going to give its gas away for free or under market much longer so these fools better wise up and pay up. Or freeze. The idea of suing Russia or Gazprom is ludicrous.
Dirk,
The only bright spot is that Pemex hedged a big whack of production in the $60/bbl range IIRC...or is that less dark spot?
First, they took our jobs!
Now, they are taking our Jobs!
Makes me think of Southpark this is funny
Hal,
It ain't about the bill...
Did anyone heed my call on the Railroads?? BNI and UNP are getting slammed lately. My puts are waay up.
citizen energyecon
Doesn't Pemex have declining production anyways?
I know it sounds nuts but I think the only way to save the economy is for governments start making purchases of gold at regular intervals.
tg is a born & bred dope in a | 01.14.09 - 4:36 pm | #
AMEN!
And I am NO gold bug.
There would be no single better way to fight deflation than doing that - and at the end of the day the gov't would be holding a LOT bigger pile of 'hard assets' which if unacceptable levels of inflation ensued... reverse the process - sell some gold [and soak up dollars].
I would not be surprised to see that happen before we are done - that and possibly buy land too [guaranteed to stay in USA].
Citizen AllenM | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 4:34 pm | #
Water shortage, huge gang problems, Mexico instability, huge RR/CRE crash with secondary economic effects, and the heat(Dry). Why would Phoenix be a place to buy at any price?
Aapl should have timed the announcement with a 4g iphone
Governments must use the time between now and March-May 2009 to equip themselves to cope with a surge of unemployment, a collapse of capital-funded pension funds, and fierce anger directed at them by their citizens, which may take the form of large-scale civil protest. I doubt whether there will be any significant recovery of economic growth in the world economy at large or in Iceland until late 2010 at the earliest.
Robert Wade for SecTreas! Congress can grant him citizenship if necessary.
Oh yeah, Pemex is cliff diving...their giant field, Cantarell is in a huge sleigh ride of irreversible decline (experienced by all oil fields eventually, the rate of decline is a function of the intersection of physical properties of the reservoir and the investment and engineering acumen of the asset manager)
meanwhile Plantronics just announced they missed their December revenues numbers by $22 million ($184 vs $206) announcing 18% workforce reduction and a 50% cut in capex for fiscal 2010. The beat goes on.....
"What is Russia trying to accommplish?"
Big issues at stake here, going far beyond the price of NG. This is not just a market issue.
Sudden collapse of mexico possible.
http://www.elpasotimes.com/newup...ted/ ci_11444354
Would that be bad for tourism?
Got timeshare?
Ben Frank'll Tank Bernanke | 01.14.09 - 4:27 pm | #
Might be a great time to annex Baja. Economically, they're pretty much the 52nd state (PR's 51st) already. Talk about a big market for infrastructure projects...
"It ain't about the bill..."
It is all about Ukraine and Russia smackdown, nothing else. Ukraine owns the main pipes going to the Europe side and Russia provides the gas. Two stubborn slavic nations facing each other. All other pipes are working just fine to the Europe...
Gav - I saw the merrill report a few days ago.. sold my rails too..
Ow... Plantronics is a big employer where I live.
Russia is in huge trouble. That little stunt they pulled two weeks ago was a blatant attempt to drive oil prices higher. Their budget is totally f$cked this year with oil in the 30's. It's a fiscal disaster for them.
Steve Jobs' "health issues are more complex than thought."
Complex.
Remember when "Brazil with nukes" was a joke?
Professor Antal E. Fekete
a...OpenTheMint.pdf
tg is a born & bred dope in a | 01.14.09 - 4:36 pm |
tg, Mr. Fekete has some problems with that piece. It's simply not true that the U.S. Mint sells gold pieces for a premium and as souvenirs. They sell bullion pieces (not the proofs) for the price of gold plus the cost of production (government calculated cost).
Later he tries to contrast an 'open Mint' example in Canada where someone is trading 400 ounce bars for 400 Maples "paying a premium that, according to the firm, is small enough that it can sell the Maple Leafs profitably at the normal 7-9% premium."
That's all the gold dealers who buy from the U.S. Mint charge. You can buy all the Gold Eagles you want for $50 over spot.
Lots of dealers were out of stock on certain items through the second half of 2008, due to retail demand, but that has nothing to do with gold being supplied in monetary form to whoever wants it.
Thanks energy.
Thinking of making a move to Houston. Are you in that area.
Unless Jobs has recurrence of cancer Lung, liver etc I think he might be OK.
citizen energyecon
You mean Russia doesn't want to get paid? I think you are confused. If Russia was paid it could not use the issue for political purposes. The fact that it has not been paid is what opens the door to the rest.
anon,
the gang problem is quite well under control- homicides dropped by 25% over the last year, and quite simply we will be solving our immigration issues.
The real reason- today's high is 74 degrees.
Only coastal california is nicer in the summer. Yeah it gets hot, but so what, I don't shovel sunshine in the summer and I don't have to freeze- I lived in some really nasty climates in my youth. At least I don't have that.
All of the amenities of life in a big city, and ultimately few drawbacks once this crisis has passed.
It still snows in Minneapolis and Buffalo.
A lot.
When house prices look attractive, folks flock here to buy. There was a brief flurry from Canada, even, during the summer driven by oil money.
Someday this war's gonna end...
all jokes aside I hope that Steve jobs recovers. a lot of employees and fans (not one of them) count on him
Might be a great time to annex Baja. Economically, they're pretty much the 52nd state (PR's 51st) already. Talk about a big market for infrastructure projects...
Bob Dobbs | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 4:49 pm | #
Go for the whole thing - the whole enchilada - they would come our way anyway - call it 'El Anschluss'. Same difference.
Talk about a new voting block - somebody, what is 'yes we can' in spanglish?
Ow... Plantronics is a big employer where I live.
Anonymous | 01.14.09 - 4:50 pm | #
So, you live down the road from me, or in Puerto Rico. So: Midcounty-Western Santa Cruz County has taken three big employment hits in the past week: Plantronics, the Gottschalks BK, and the Cemex six-month shutdown. And we're in California, where "it's different."
bob,
I'm all for it and would move here in an instant...
Welcome to Loreto - Baja Life Online 949.376.BAJA (2252) .................Fishing, Diving, Swimming, Baja, Mexico, Travel, Surfing, Drinking, Hotels, Music, California, Mexico, Golf, Real Estate, Fishing, Hotels, Maps
around the corner from shot on home page (carmen island) is a honey hole for Lobster....mucho langosta y cerveza corona...in one dive I was hit by 300 lobster in one hole easily after entering......
Interesting headline from Reuters:
EU premiers plead with Ukraine and Russia for gas
Sounds like Putin has them right where he wants them...although apparently annual negotiations have been commonplace, this year's dispute smells to me like a replay of the 1973 OPEC boycott. In '73 OPEC was flexing their control over a key fuel source; now Russia's doing the same thing.
"All the other pipes are working fine."
Yes, because Russia is getting paid for that gas. It is the gas to and via the Ukraine that Russia is not getting paid for. It doesn't like the Ukraine's policies but it couldn't use the gas to beat up on it if it were being paid. Is that so difficult to understand?
MOT cutting 4,000 additional jobs
It still snows in Minneapolis and Buffalo.
A lot.
Citizen AllenM | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 4:54 pm | #
Pfft! Lived in both places. What's a little snow? Last I knew it melts into water - so damned much water around here it's silly.
Pancreatic Cancer
Median survival from diagnosis is around 3 to 6 months; 5-year survival is less than 5%. Jobs was diagnosed in 04' so he seems like one of the very luck few so far.
So, you live down the road from me, or in Puerto Rico. So: Midcounty-Western Santa Cruz County has taken three big employment hits in the past week: Plantronics, the Gottschalks BK, and the Cemex six-month shutdown. And we're in California, where "it's different."
I already headed for the hills -- Ben Lomond. But of course I have friends at Plantronics. I won't miss Gottshalks but Davenport is going to get ugly if Cemex stops subsidizing the utilities.
Not to mention the commuters that might not need to commute in a few months time...
Tim and the American Miracle | 01.14.09 - 4:53 pm | #
Tim,
Yes I live in Houston. It's been very good to me, both personally and professionally (I work at one of the majors). We are catching up on the RE cycle, big dropoffs in transaction volumes and some price declines...
Hope you like humid if you come this way. Bit of an adjustment when I moved from Colorado to the Gulf Coast.
(Plantronics is a big employer where I live.)
don't forget Seagate too.
http://www.jfcom.mil/newslink/storyarchive/2008/JOE2008.pdf
Referenced source regarding Mexico instability. Should be named world instability report.
Might be a great time to annex Baja. Economically, they're pretty much the 52nd state (PR's 51st) already. Talk about a big market for infrastructure projects...
Bob Dobbs | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 4:49 pm | #
Go for the whole thing - the whole enchilada - they would come our way anyway - call it 'El Anschluss'. Same difference.
dryfly | 01.14.09 - 4:55 pm | #
The northern tier of states, we could probably just ask, "Ya wanna?" And that would do it. The rest, I don't know.
Gearing up to make it happen and integrate the whole mess; that might be as big an economic stimulus as some wars we've had -- and more than the two we have now.
and now Motorola over the hill...
Guys I know at Intel are looking over their shoulders too.
dryfly,
big canal brings it from Colorado River. Lots of snow in Colorado this year, hence, no worries.
Drought pretty much ended last year, but that doesn't sell newspapers or look good on 60 minutes.
My father moved off his mountain (elevation 6800) at 63- now the old bones don't ache anywhere near as much...
Right now, this place is a smoking ruin for wealth, but it will recover again, all it takes is time and bk court.
The entire history of the West is written in booms and busts.
Someday this war's gonna end...
I think this needs to be clarified for some:
The Ukraine doesn't have any (much) money and can't pay market prices for its gas. Russia hates the Ukraine's flirtation with NATO and is demanding a market price for gas sold to it. The gas to the Ukraine goes through pipes that also pass some gas on to Europe. The Ukraine, rather than pay
Russia a market price, is syphoning off gas meant for Europe. So Russia has cut the supply going through the Ukraine.IF RUSSIA WERE PAID A MARKET PRICE FOR THE GAS GOING THROUGH AND TO THE UKRAINE IT COULD NOT USE THE ISSUE POLITICALLY.
dryfly, Obama used 'si, se puede.'
Okay, your question was only a joke.
Wonder if there is a link between pancreatic cancer and sitting/laying with a laptop on your stomach is?
Talk about a new voting block - somebody, what is 'yes we can' in spanglish?
dryfly | 01.14.09 - 4:55 pm | #
Jes, we caan.
(Plantronics is a big employer where I live.)
don't forget Seagate too.
Dave of SV | 01.14.09 - 4:59 pm | #
Okay, five. All told, you might be talking 1,000 jobs out of a county of 250,000. Gonna hurt.
And one of our other biggest employers is corp HQ for a national boating supply retail chain. Just a matter of time on that one.
Jobs announcment is a smack down on CNBC! Their "reporter" has been saying he is doing great! Add this to that clown Phil Lebeau who covers autos and apprears to be a PR man for the little 3...that channel is a joke and has zero credibility...
Muchas Gracias Energy
Deflation affects all asset classes and PMs are just an asset class.
I see that others are more optimistic than I, but that's my take.
sportsfan | 01.14.09 - 4:19 pm | #
Where is Rich?
Google News apparently has an "Apple" news blackout...kept refreshing and nothing. Then I go to Bloomberg and it is the top headline.
In that respect this is the 1930s. How many folks are ready to return tothe days when investing meant putting your money at risk?
Citizen AllenM | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 3:20 pm | #
One of the first buildings that Hewlett and Packard put up was designed so that, if the business failed, it could be used as a supermarket.
And one of our other biggest employers is corp HQ for a national boating supply retail chain. Just a matter of time on that one.
If Granite doesn't get some of that stimulus money they're going to be putting people on the street as well.
MOT just preannounced...cutting an additional 4,000 jobs (they announced a little while back would cut 3,000, so this makes 7,000 jobs cut.) Also revenue came in around $7.1 billion versus expectations of $7.5 billion--or $400 million miss.
citizen energyecon writes:
...Ukraine welcomes EU call to sue gas companies...
...Russia proposes summit of EU gas importers...
I can not help but to think that Russia and Ukraine with their idiotic gas quarrel have only permanently (well, for the next 10 years or so) damaged their opportunities with the EU.
They may have hoped to hurt/blame/outdo each other, but from an EU point of view, they are simply both not fit as a bussiness partner.
As for Ukraine and NATO : NATO, with a nation which drove it's financial system to the brink of desaster as it's leader, this organisation is toast also. Who believes in the defense by AAA-liers, just a joke.
". It doesn't like the Ukraine's policies but it couldn't use the gas to beat up on it if it were being paid. Is that so difficult to understand?"
Of course and that is why at least western europe has gigantic gas tank reserves (three months at full power with no rationing). The eastern europe is of course suffering when these two stubborn slavic nations are staring each other who is gonna blink first.
The northern tier of states, we could probably just ask, "Ya wanna?" And that would do it. The rest, I don't know.
Bob Dobbs | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 4:59 pm | #
Probably not some of the 'indian' states like Oaxaca but some southern states like Quintana Roo [Cancun & southern Yucatan]? I'd bet they'd go in a heartbeat. I've traveled down there way outside Cancun [along the Belize border and around Chetumal] and I had a hard time NOT finding somebody who didn't have family up in El Norte or traveled [worked] up here. One person even knew the places I traveled in the Midwest and the plants I'd called on - she had worked in a number of them saving up money for her marriage.
There are way more of them that would sign on than Americans who would sign on... the thing that keeps Mexico Mexico is the 'elites'... most all of them would become second class elites the minute they became 'Americans'. Never let it happen as a result.
wow. BAC + AAPL < 9 digits tomorrow AM
MOT a $400 mill miss?
Pthh.. a nothingburger.. just put it over there with the other ones..
Ukraine is also stricken by the fall in commodities prices - steel and wheat(?). Hal seems to me to have a good understanding of the commercial situation. But beyond that there is an issue of existential importance to Russia. Where does Ukraine stand in relation to Russian national security interests?
This is a game without quarter and without pity, as it is played by nation states.
aapl opens < $77
The fact that it has not been paid is what opens the door to the rest.
Hal | 01.14.09 - 4:54 pm | #
Hal,
There is much more going on here than a simple commercial disagreement, and whether the bill got paid.
Do some homework on the intermediaries used for the transactions by both Gazprom and Naftogaz and your head will spin - corruption is rife on both sides, and political rivalries within Ukraine exacerbate the situation - in addition to Russia being unable to carry Ukraine at a subsidized price and Ukraine being unable to pay at a jacked up rate.
Russia is trying to force a regime change in Ukraine to a friendly, and ultimately gain control of the transmission network.
Ukraine's Yushchenko deliberately poisoned with dioxin - official test results
06.02.2006, 02:18 AM
KIEV (AFX) - Ukraine's President Viktor Yushchenko was the victim of a deliberate poisoning with the toxic chemical dioxin, the country's state prosecutor said Thursday, citing official test results more than a year after the politician was disfigured by a mystery illness.
[snip]
The illness came during a bitter presidential election campaign in which he was the main opposition candidate. He was later elected president in the so-called 'Orange revolution', when he led protests against rigged second-round voting.
Ukraine's Yushchenko deliberately poisoned with dioxin - official test results - Forbes.com
if we get baja I could feed us all..
mad max or not...
http://s459.photobucket.com/albums/qq319/cdavies64/?action=view¤t=Lobsterdive.jpg
http://s459.photobucket.com/albums/qq319/cdavies64/?action=view¤t=AnotherDorado.jpg
Nice of Steve to take his leave right before the Jan op-ex.
Werner, excuse me, but this is no idiotic game. It is deadly serious. When Yushchenko said that Ukraine had been humiliated by Russia, he was not being melodramatic.
Someone asking about Houston. I live in northwest Houston, where there is zero evidence of a recession.
Shops, restaurants, roads, consistently jammed, people are buying, anecdotally speaking. At REI this weekend, we were there for an hour and lines were consistent and long. Perhaps it's all returns and gift cards, we'll see come February.
Bought a new car on 12/31, went in to pick up the plates amongst a very thick stack this week. The salesman said business was good I dont' know how true that is, but he seemed upbeat.
Realtor friends of my wife's say that business for conforming properties is brisk.
Are dioxin and melamine commodities?
AAPL at $78.05 on after hours
Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Motorola Inc., the second-biggest U.S. seller of mobile phones, is cutting 4,000 more jobs as the economic slump erodes consumer spending.
About 3,000 of the job cuts will come from its mobile devices unit, Schaumburg, Illinois-based Motorola said today in a statement. The reduction follows 3,000 job cuts disclosed in October as declines in the handset business leached profitability.
In a presentation that drew several collective intakes of breath, Mr Kelly predicted that house prices would fall by 80 per cent from peak to trough in real terms
Sparing no blushes, he said professional economists in the Central Bank and the Economic and Social Research Institute need to look very closely at their analyses of the Irish economy and figure out what went wrong.
Mr Kelly said Irelands reputational capital had been damaged by chancers such as ex-Anglo Irish Bank chairman Seán FitzPatrick, who had been abetted by buffoons such as former financial regulator Patrick Neary, Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan and the Taoiseach.
Warning that house prices may fall by 80% - The Irish Times - Tue, Jan 13, 2009
Someone asking about Houston. I live in northwest Houston, where there is zero evidence of a recession.
Dust Bowling for Dollars | 01.14.09 - 5:12 pm | #
Texas is one of 3 US states not currently in recession. Enjoy it while it lasts.
Don't know bout the science behind it, but my life has dramatically improved since I bought laptop chill pad for $25 last month.
Amazon.com: Targus PA248U Notebook Chill Pad: Electronics
anon writes:
Wonder if there is a link between pancreatic cancer and sitting/laying with a laptop on your stomach is?
anon | 01.14.09 - 5:02 pm | #
In other news, the Seneca Indians are threatening to charge tolls on the NY State Thruway.
Even more newsworthy is that many New York residents are cheering them on...
U.S. Mint sells gold pieces for a premium and as souvenirs
I think he is referring to the $50 on the coin itself. Our government will only redeem it for face price in the market place. I may be wrong. He sounds like he will answer your e-mails if you write him. Not trying to be flippant.
"But beyond that there is an issue of existential importance to Russia. Where does Ukraine stand in relation to Russian national security interests?"
Americans always seem to overestimate the Russian military capabilities ans underestimate the capabilities of what is within Western Europe.
If Germany/UK/France together were to attack with even half of their NATO fighters against Russia, Russian Air Forces would be toast about in a hour. They would not stand a chance.
In other news, the Seneca Indians are threatening to charge tolls on the NY State Thruway.
mal | 01.14.09 - 5:16 pm | #
Are they going to maintain the roads as well?
Pancreatic Cancer
Median survival from diagnosis is around 3 to 6 months; 5-year survival is less than 5%. Jobs was diagnosed in 04' so he seems like one of the very luck few so far.
Tim and the American Miracle | 01.14.09 - 4:58 pm | #
He had endocrine versus exocrine and the survival rates are significantly greater than exocrine. Often, the tumors with endocrine are benign. The disease does affect your hormone levels.
Ukraine's President Viktor Yushchenko was the victim of a deliberate poisoning with the toxic chemical dioxin . . . .
Well, Putin didn't use polonium-210 this time, so it was just a warning.
Xxxxx, all they have to do is maintain between the two exits that are on their rez, I suppose...
Shops, restaurants, roads, consistently jammed, people are buying, anecdotally speaking. At REI this weekend, we were there for an hour and lines were consistent and long. Perhaps it's all returns and gift cards, we'll see come February.
Dust Bowling for Dollars | 01.14.09 - 5:12 pm | #
REI was cleaned out in the Twin Cities too - went there looking for after Xmas XC ski deals and almost everything was gone... summer & cruise stuff was being put out. I think they run their inventories differently than a 'for profit' operation... been a member since the late 70s... it has always been first come first serve. I'm not sure they are a good indicator.
this is really the mother of all confessional days
I have almost no sympathy for Ukraine given the deliberate middle finger it has given Russia over the last few years.
It is in no sense 'north atlantic', or european and some large portion of its population is pro-Russian. Besides being Russia's bread basket for centuries, the Crimea is Russia's only warm water port to the Mediterranean.
They have provolked the bear, and the bear is always hungry. It will not tolerate Ukraine in NATO, and the NATO countries shouldn't touch it with a 500 mile pole.
So, when Ukraine says they need nat. gas, it is not surprising that Russia says, fine, just pay the price, promptly and including late payment penalties.
Are dioxin and melamine commodities?
FineWhinefrom2009 | 01.14.09 - 5:12 pm | #
They should be. Next bubble, perhaps....on our livers.
With retail sales tanking and Beige Book depressing anyone willing to bet on GNP for 4th quarter 2008?
My take is it will be negative, just how much is the question.
With retail sales tanking and Beige Book depressing anyone willing to bet on GNP for 4th quarter 2008?
My take is it will be negative, just how much is the question.
kind of eerie how bdobbs and deflationary jane were talking about apple along with bear traps earlier...
"If Germany/UK/France together were to attack with even half of their NATO fighters against Russia, Russian Air Forces would be toast about in a hour."
Germany would attack Russia again? The UK and France would go along?
"Deflation affects all asset classes and PMs are just an asset class."
Thank you, God. With all of the goldbugs around here, I thought I'd never see anyone here actually write that.
mp | 01.14.09 - 4:20 pm | #
Shhh! I was just rubbing my hands together picturing jg wearing potato sacks and begging on the streets . . . don't ruin it for me!
Confessional? Ha! I'd like to see the day when the banks finally all line up at the confessional. Come clean and we might actually be able to start moving past this whole crisis.
Morocco please explai
WSJ headline: U.S. may extend more aid to Bank of America in a bid to help it digest Merrill Lynch.
Come clean and we might actually be able to start moving past this whole crisis.
TPC | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 5:20 pm | #
Where have you been? They've been reporting kitchen sink quarters for almost 1.5 years.
WSJ headline: U.S. may extend more aid to Bank of America in a bid to help it digest Merrill Lynch.
TUMS of pepto
Well, Putin didn't use polonium-210 this time, so it was just a warning.
sportsfan | 01.14.09 - 5:17 pm | #
Yeah, Litvinenko was all aglow. I love Polonium 210. It goes well with Squirrel.
Wish Steve well.
Apple has long been a little culty, and fanbois worship a little too hard at Teh Cult of Teh Steve. Ask anybody who uses a Mac, and you'll quickly receive a 'true believer' spiel worthy of a Promise Keeper, but falling somewhat short of yelling Allah Akbhar!
The stock carries a similar Steve premium. And now it's gone. Do the fundamentals of the company change? Does their competitive advantage change? Does Steve really add that much? We'll find out.
.REI was cleaned out in the Twin Cities too - went there looking for after Xmas XC ski deals and almost everything was gone... summer & cruise stuff was being put out. I think they run their inventories differently than a 'for profit' operation... been a member since the late 70s... it has always been first come first serve. I'm not sure they are a good indicator.
dryfly | 01.14.09 - 5:18 pm | #
One other thing I should mention is the clearance deals I've been seeing have been incredible (REI included, but really everywhere I go). That can drive a lot of "observable" shopping activity that doesn't translate into profits for the retailers
He had endocrine versus exocrine and the survival rates are significantly greater than exocrine. Often, the tumors with endocrine are benign. The disease does affect your hormone levels.
Explain...
Pancrease has both exo and endcrine secretions. Usually the pancrease is removed.
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 5:10 pm | #
I would just say it is far from clear that Russia was behind the Yuschenko poisoning.
I could easily picture half a dozen other actors, including western intelligence services, as more likely conspirators. I don't rule Russia out, but as with the Polonium poisoning incident, it is far from cut and dried.
pancrease=pancreas
Where have you been? They've been reporting kitchen sink quarters for almost 1.5 years.
You actually think these firms have been marking their assets to market properly? If they were half of them would be instantly insolvent. You're kidding yourself if you think they've marking their assets realistically.
I mean, how many times did John Thain tell us his balance sheet was stronger than ever? Did you believe that crap?
"Where have you been? They've been reporting kitchen sink quarters for almost 1.5 years."
It's a European style estate.
First we went through the kitchen in the maids quarters.
Then we went through the kitchen in the guests bungalow.
Then the kitchen in the gardeners quarters.
There's still a couple of smaller kitchens in the main house before we get to the main kitchen.
Morocco please explain
Tim and the American Miracle | 01.14.09 - 5:21 pm | #
Medical Conditions and Medical Information: ADAM Medical Library of Health Condi
Not all pancreatic cancers are adeno, not all are in the pancreatic head, and not all are resectable. So pancreatic tumor is nearly as generic as brain tumor.
So Steve's explanation is right, it's "complex."
BAC wants more TARP money. Though they were forced to take delivery of the first installment.
Vornado Pays 60% of Dividend in Stock, Saves Cash (Update1)
By David M. Levitt
Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Vornado Realty Trust, the fourth-biggest U.S. real estate investment trust, will pay part of its quarterly dividend in stock to preserve cash.
Vornado Pays 60% of Dividend in Stock, Saves Cash (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Pavel Chichikov writes:
... When Yushchenko said that Ukraine had been humiliated by Russia, he was not being melodramatic...
What was the humiliation?
Oh, and it's also none of my business.
My take is it will be negative, just how much is the question.
rc | 01.14.09 - 5:20 pm | #
Ya Think? Yeah it will be negative, my guess is -5.5% origionally and then later revised about -6.0%.
Strength in net exports due to imports falling faster than exports, perhaps some from govt spending, all federal, S&L should be a drag. Fixed investment will be a big drag on all 3 fronts (RRE, CRE and E&S), with RRE still the biggest drag of the 3, but CRE moving up fast on the outside. Might have some help from inventory investment, but that will be a statistical mirage, since it is all of the unwanted type. PCE off a cliff. Possible the deflator could be negative, which would help real GDP growth, but that would not be a healthy development.
CR, you usually parse this sort of stuff pretty well, is my thinking in line with yours or am I missing something.
"cd writes:
uh oh...
Republican senators move to block bank-bailout bill"
Interestingly last night I was called into a telephone town hall meeting (from my congressman)on the subject of the Incoming Presidents stimulus package. After callers questions and comments a approval or disapproval vote was taken. Apposed carried by 77%. Second vote was, has all the money so far spent had a positive effect. 89% no.
Not trying to be flippant.
tg is a born & bred dope in a | 01.14.09 - 5:16 pm |
Nor am I. It's just that the claims in his article didn't make any sense to me.
I don't think by 'premiums' he's referring to the $50 face value on the Eagle since the Maple Leaf has the same nominal face value. I think he was just referring to the proof coins.
But no country that I know of allows gold coins to trade in conjunction with paper money at equal value. If any ever did, the gold would be replaced by paper pretty quickly.
You actually think these firms have been marking their assets to market properly?
TPC | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 5:25 pm | #
Of course not.
That's why what I said was "a joke". You can't keep reporting kitchen-sink quarters.
cd writes:
Ocdan,
off 241 near closed dealerships?
Lots of empty cre there too....
cd | 01.14.09 - 4:39 pm | #
You got it!
We already lost the 10K+ sq. ft. Mervyn's. Who is gonna rent that monster out? I wonder what they will sell/do?
Further down in RSM, we are slowly losing auto dealer buildings. First one closed up about a month ago to downsize in the auto mall. It was one of the Japanese makers. Thought they went out, but wife showed me they just down sized. Still, buildings are slowly becoming vacant.
This will be a very interesting year.
Lots of banks report tomorrow, including JPM...whoo-hoo.....
Eric writes:
You actually think these firms have been marking their assets to market properly?
TPC | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 5:25 pm | #
I thought you were implying that these banks have been marking their assets properly.
A lot of these banks are insolvent. If they actually marked their assets to market they'd have no shareholder equity. But they're hanging on and marking assets every quarter hoping the market turns at some point.
Classic death by a thousand paper cuts.
"BAC wants more TARP money. Though they were forced to take delivery of the first installment."
"Forced" by their own circumstances.
On my drive home from work, I have to pass by the local row of auto dealers. Some have closed. I'm sure the business can't be good at any of the others, especially since I never see auto delivery rigs parked by the side of the road any more.
However, today I was surprised to see a rig parked... until I saw it was empty. It was there to take cars away.
http://www.cnbc.com//id/28659854?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yahoo
Dow has worst start to a year ever!
Oil Slump Forces Rich Arab Countries to Run Deficits (Update2)
By Camilla Hall
Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Tumbling oil prices are forcing many of the richest Persian Gulf states to record budget deficits and limit a critical source of foreign investment for poorer Arab countries.
Central bank governors and finance ministers from the 22- member Arab League gathered in Kuwait City today for a week of meetings on the global financial crisis and Gulf efforts to create a single currency. The conference opened with a minute of silence for the more than 900 Palestinians killed in a 2 1/2-week Israeli offensive in the Gaza Strip.
Crude is now selling at below the budget break-even point for seven of the Arab worlds 10 top oil producers and Saudi Arabia, the worlds biggest exporter, is forecasting its first deficit in at least seven years. Poorer Arab states are facing a fall in foreign investment with Egypt expecting inflows to almost halve this year, according to EFG-Hermes Holding SAE, the largest Arab investment bank by market value.
We have to find ways to limit the impact which could hurt the Arab economy and make sure economic growth in Arab countries continues at appropriate levels, Kuwaiti Finance Minister Mustafa Jassim al-Shimali said, referring to the global crisis. We are not immune to its negative effects.
Oil Slump Forces Rich Arab Countries to Run Deficits (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Pthh.. a nothingburger.. just put it over there with the other ones..
Gubbmint Cheese
LOL!