Dafox go to boombustblog.com and read about the "doodoo 32" and as much else as you can stand. Never mind the cocky blogger he called it all and explains why.
The market was shrugging off all bad news until just the past couple days.
This (along with the accumulation of other bad news, including the new uncertainty about Treasury secretary and its potential delay of Obama's stimulus measures) has the feel of yet another panic-selling trigger.
If market shrugs this off, I'll be surprised. Throw in some surprisingly bad earnings announcements from IBM and/or Apple next week, and there could be a nasty drop.
Bank of America May Be the Next Citi, Rosner Says (Update2)
By Jody Shenn and David Mildenberg
Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp., after buying troubled rivals Merrill Lynch & Co. and Countrywide Financial Corp., may need the type of government aid provided to Citigroup Inc., Graham Fisher & Co.s Joshua Rosner said.
Given our economic outlook, it seems reasonable to consider BofA may be the next Citi, Rosner, a managing director in New York at the investment-research firm, wrote in a note to clients today.
Bank of America, the largest U.S. bank by assets, JPMorgan Chase & Co., the second-largest, and Wells Fargo & Co., the biggest U.S. bank by stock-market value, have so far outperformed competitors, posting profits amid the U.S. housing collapse, market turmoil and global recession.
I have been saying that for over 2 years.. they are the walking dead.
//leggo writes:
All the banks are insolvent. The game is up. The Ponzi economy is collapsing. It will take 18 trillion dollars to solve this problem.
leggo | 01.14.09 - 7:02 pm | #//
The Feds need to establish some consumer fairness conditions for additional aid to BofA, and set-aside resources to monitor and enforce those conditions.
BofA just pulled a new bait-n-switch credit card cash advance tactic where they offer great i-rates and, in my case, no transaction fee. But they set an invisible deadline for those terms that you can't know in advance: 1. The deadline is not based on ur transaction date (which u can control), but on the date the bank chooses to post the transaction, in my case on the Statement Closing Date; 2. They reserve the right to move around the monthly Statement Closing Date and not post it in writing in advance; and 3. They reserve the right to sit on the transaction and post it when their staff is ready to.
Mind-boggling.
I deposit once of their cash advance access checks with one of their tellers who calls it in before processing it, all at 2pm, and BofA claims they could not post the transaction for 3 business days...just enuff time to nullify the great terms of the bait-n-switch offer.
What low-life institutional thievery.
Our financial markets have become one big gossip column. It has to collapse now before any confidence is restored. We can't recover until that confidence comes back.
And it's gonna take more than the Madoff semi-perp-walk to appease the masses. The gossip columnists, especially CNBC, are hiding behind his crimes to absolve them of their own.
Our financial markets have become one big gossip column. It has to collapse now before any confidence is restored. We can't recover until that confidence comes back.
And it's gonna take more than the Madoff semi-perp-walk to appease the masses. The gossip columnists, especially CNBC, are hiding behind his crimes to absolve them of their
Since we are throwing money in a black hole, let us call this bailout " The Bailout Singularity"
//t's a good thing Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, AIG, Citi, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo are all doing okay and won't need any more money.
Speed | 01.14.09 - 7:11 pm | #//
Is it me or are bailouts to big financials getting passe. Another day, another billion. Million is begining to look like small change as the money printing presses continue to churn out greenbacks.
That GE Capital firing is huge...of course the huge headlines have been flying too fast to keep up with. The Nortel BK is huge as well...I peg them for liquidation.
My bank bought me $1000 life insurance with Hartford. All I had to do was mail in the benficiary form. Ay 42 cents the letter I thought it was a bad bet.
citizen Kung Fu Panda writes: That GE Capital firing is huge...of course the huge headlines have been flying too fast to keep up with. The Nortel BK is huge as well...I peg them for liquidation.
Like I said above, this along with all the fast-breaking bad news has the feel of another panic-selling trigger. If the market shrugs all of this off, this is bear-market rally has some damn strong legs!
From what's been posted so far, this isn't a bailout, so much as a JPM style backstop on losses. Sounds like BAC was getting cold feet on the MER deal in December and pressed for better terms.
"Unpaid debt will lead to bankruptcy of banks which have to be nationalised and State will have to take the road which will eventually lead to communism."
Karl Marx, Das Kapital 1867
P.S. Krugman wouldn't mind a "temporary nationalisation of the banks." How about a "temporary communist gov." comrade Krugman?
Broker writes:
"Unpaid debt will lead to bankruptcy of banks which have to be nationalised and State will have to take the road which will eventually lead to communism."
Karl Marx, Das Kapital 1867
"TPC writes:
CFC was totally insolvent and B of A took them out at, what, $5? Merrill was totally insolvent and B of A offered, what, $29 for them?"
Well, from my understanding (which isn't much) Lewis to stiff the CFC creditors while buying their stock at $5.
Now, Lewis is stiffing the US Taxpayer for excess asset losses while buying ML.
Seems to me he's getting sweetheart deals. Definitely better than say, GoldenWest or Ditech. I think he should be indicted for fraud, but if he isn't so indicted, then the stockholders might make out well.
"The worst of the economic situation is not yet behind us. It looks as if it will continue to deteriorate for most of 2009, said Mr Dimon. In terms of our sector, we expect consumer loans and credit cards to continue to get worse.
"From what's been posted so far, this isn't a bailout, so much as a JPM style backstop on losses. Sounds like BAC was getting cold feet on the MER deal in December and pressed for better terms."
When they did the Merril deal, it looked like it was overpriced, Thain took Kenny for a ride, like wasnt it something like a 50% premium over where MER was trading on Friday. So BAC goes along, payig big divies (10+% yield) and MER pays out big bonuses. Then right after the close..OOOPS.
If we recap them again, min 10% div on preferred we get and warrents equal to 100% of bailout funds at today's close as strike. No more than $0.01 common dividend. No salaries over $400K (Obama's salary) and no bonuses, none, up and down the whole org. not just the top 4 or 5 guys.
"So intertwined are Apple and Jobs that the company does not countenance employee blogs lest the public attach some other face to the makers of iMacs and iPods...Apple's statement earlier this month that Jobs was suffering from a "hormone imbalance" that could be treated in a "relatively simple" manner brought guffaws from doctors, including oncologists. They will tell you that any such hormone imbalance is almost certainly a consequence of a recurrence of the pancreatic cancer that caused Jobs' brush with death in 2004....For his board members, direct reports, handlers and sundry factotums, dealing with Jobs at this point must be painful. Even in the best of times, he has never tolerated much in the way of dissent or independent thinking."
Bankruptcy law is strictly a tool to socialize losses. Its converse is executive compensation limits, or progressive capital gains tax, or proper antitrust enforcement and limits on capital reserves. Redbaiting don't cut it anymore.
from last thread:
Nemo - Those are everyone's favorite movies >; )
As to the BK count, I'm reminded of hanging out in the parkng lot at Dead shows. You'd find folks hovering around the nitrous tank and the inevitable question was: 'what's the drop count?' or even shorter 'what's the beat?' Fairly appropriate questions these days
My favorite part about the Merrill deal was that people praised Thain for getting the merger done.
Thain destroyed the NYSE while paying himself millions and then drove Merrill's stock into the ground (granted he inherited much of the problems) while telling investors their balance sheet was "never stronger".
And people praise him as a CEO. I don't get it. The man has never made money for any of his shareholders.
Outsider writes:
Governor Sonny Purdue wants to eliminate all Georgia homestead exemptions!
That will go over real well. Not.
Topher | 01.14.09 - 6:54 pm | #
Do you have a link to that?
Outsider | 01.14.09 - 7:16 pm | #
Outsider, I saw it on the local news tonight. I checked the AJC for a story. No luck. I did however see that Cobb County where I live has a budget surplus. I wonder for how long.
And the secretary of treasury designate is either a complete fool, or a simple cheat. He had been told he was responsible for paying this tax, acknowledged it in writing, and took the extra 7+% the IMF gave him to pay the tax. But it is an honest mistake to then not pay it? Are they serious?
From the New York Times:
"However, the I.M.F. does pay its American workers an amount equal to an employer"s half of the payroll taxes, with the expectation that they will use that to pay the I.R.S."
From the Washington Post:
"Documents released by the Finance committee documented the errors made by Geithner. One showed his signature on a tax worksheet that states that he has an 'obligation of the U.S. Social Security tax, which I will pay on my fund income.'"
Said before and I'll say it again: You do not fix solvency problems by loaning money to people.
You fix solvency problems by GIVING money to people... and even in the dying dies the Bush administration is up against the political difficulty of doing that... and it will be even harder for Obama. Paulson wants to but can't; Obama will not want to.
There are more chapters to this story and all the recent bonhomie about the financial crisis ending is premature.
Currently Accounting writes:
OT Obama's stimulus: here's what is next, bulldoze the homes:
CA,
As a long time resident of Chicago, I think "Richie" Daley is a meglamatic moron. Anybody who's aware of his "pre-dawn raid" on Meigs Field isn't surprised by the O'Hare/Bensonville debacle.
Not to sound paranoid or anything, but I have the funny feeling that the people at ML were told what their 2008 bonuses would be just a few days ago.
Imagine the difference if BofA had asked for the bailout before the bonuses were declared. I think once you've told people what they are getting as a bonus, you can't take it back.
I've worked in the industry for a while, and I've gotten some nice bonuses. I really can't figure out why large cash bonuses are being given out this year. I could be convinced that stock options might be the right thing, but cash?
Bob Weir and Mickey Hart will perform at Franken fundraiser brunch in DC Sunday. Terrapin Station was the Senator elect's theme music on his radio show.
When folks talk about "nationalizing" the banks, what do they mean and are they all talking about the same thing? Are they talking about taking over the assets and liabilities of these monsters? Putting taxpayers on the hook for these huge liabilities makes no sense to me.
Nor does it make sense to try to put the politicians in a position of running the businesses on an ongoing basis. I don't trust them to do a good job. They will either fail and continue t bleed money or they will unfairly compete against more prudent enterprises that didn't require rescue. Finally, I don't trust the politicians to sell off the assets fairly and not create a generation of US oligarcs.
Run these pigs through bankruptcy like any other business that cannot pay its bills. The losses will be taken in any event and it is better that those who signed up for the risk take the hit than taxpayers.
Have inflation indexed loans ever been tried? It seems obvious solution to heavy debt with deflation.
Didn't Shiller suggest mortgage indexed to his housing index, to diffuse risk between the borrower and lender?
Anyone know if this has been tried anywhere? seems it would allow necessary deflation without growing the real debt burdens.
Its a market innovation that would ease the fear of deflation and allow the adjustment without panic (from our leaders)
WFC seems to be remarkably unscathed. I have to believe the other shoe is going to drop this year.
NOT Irving Fisher! | 01.14.09 - 7:38 pm | #
Yeah, it was odd a few weeks ago when Meredith Whitney said WFC was her favorite short. Not that I understand a single one of their black box balance sheets, but I figured they were one of the more healthy banks.
No kidding, their time will come. Accounting tricks (changing their definition of delinquent accounts) can only hide their worthless 2nd lien paper in AZ and CA for so long.
I'd actually like to buy WFC as a LT hold ... but not until they come to Jesus on all of their toxic waste.
@NOT Irving Fisher! writes:
WFC seems to be remarkably unscathed. I have to believe the other shoe is going to drop this year.
NOT Irving Fisher! | 01.14.09 - 7:38 pm | #
Ca, can't tell you all the reasons why (I don't want to get Minervaed) but my buy price is $24 a share and I love the product as do many friends and aquaintenances in tech and media. Bob D's price is $15. We talked a bit about it in the last thread.
Now outside of the consumer division, if aapl could fix their Pro Apps issues I'd be more bullish but the light in that tunnel is wayyyyy down the road. I'm shorting the film industry these days so you know where I stand.
Congress should capitalize a new national bank, with absolute transparency, civil service hiring practices, 20% capital reserves (all at mark to market), ordinary FDIC 250k, interest paid target rate. My cash goes there the minute it goes online.
1 currency soon [yogi] writes:
Congress should capitalize a new national bank, with absolute transparency, civil service hiring practices, 20% capital reserves (all at mark to market), ordinary FDIC 250k, interest paid target rate.
My cash goes there the minute it goes online.
The problem with creating new national banks is that we'd have a run on EVERY single existing bank. Who would keep their money at JPM when they could bank at Bank of US Government?
Steven: inflation indexed home mortgages have been tried, in Iceland for one. I believe the vast majority of local currency mortgages are currently inflation indexed there. A lot of folks underwater. It is crushing when you combine a deflating housing bubble with inflation when you have such a loan.
I have an addiction to Louboutin's, old vine Zin, and very acceptable champagne. Other women have addictions to RE. The trick is I can cover my losses >; )
I found a surprising quote attributed to Marc Faber on an out of the way website by chance. I don't have a date for it, but do you think he said it?
Marc Faber's comment on the US economy Investment analyst and entrepreneur Dr. Marc Faber concluded his monthly bulletin with the following: ''The federal government is sending each of us a $600 rebate. If we spend that money at Wal-Mart, the money goes to China. If we spend it on gasoline it goes to the Arabs. If we buy a computer it will go to India. If we purchase fruit and vegetables it will go to Mexico, Honduras and Guatemala. If we purchase a good car it will go to Germany/Japan. If we purchase useless crap it will go to Taiwan and none of it will help the American economy. The only way to keep that money here at home is to spend it on prostitutes and beer, since these are the only products still produced in US. I've been doing my part."
The Mrs. had a run-in with Countrywide yesterday. A manufactured home (1500 sq' on 1/2 acre) had just sold for $135,000. Across the street, the same size & home was just repo'd by Countrywide. Amt owed on repo was $65K - Countrywide didn't want more - they said they would have to kick it back to the old owners. Instead, sold it at $65K and killed the comps in the area.
I am completely getting disgusted by the thievery.
Why we are in a deflationary spiral.
-too much debt
-not enough savings
-fraud
-believe the blackbox formula for investment risk, which is wrong
-greed
-too much entertainment, etc. that encourages people to live and consume like celebrities.
-everyone has a personal computer or video game and it adds no value except entertainment or is misused by making one think their exact calculations mean something regarding risk, etc.
Why the deflationary spiral starts now or this year.
-unemployment increase
-virtually no capital gains taxes paid as income tax.
-capital losses will offset income reducing taxes even more
-resulting in bankrupt states and municpalities.
-more employment
-less spending by consumer due to above
-mortgage resets
-cash flow restrictions even for those with no debt, because they do not want to take losses on investments to make purchases of homes, autos, etc.;this is way under-reported.
-not recovered from higher energy costs
-every investment looks like a fraud or overpriced.
The USA needs to figure out what we need to make of value to incerease the standard of living and protect the country's security. There also will need to be an effort to educate the citizens on how to live better with less consumption and not see it as so much of a sacrifice.
Lambastes Bernanke for his unquestioned belief that the market must always in in equilibrium
He has attempted some cute little options to bypassing the banking system in providing credit, but overall I think he's fighting the same way that lost the Great Depression with.
All indications are that Obama will bring no new strategy.
In that case, cash beats both equities and debt at first. Then commodities kick up after money supply inflation lag. Then comes the time to clean up equities/debt during a consolidation period.
It's a long march ahead and the government is employing the Roman practice of decimation
WTF is going on with this country? More of my money for wall street asshats and bankster fatcats?
I suspect the latest infusion will happen before BHO is sworn into office.
More blackhole $$$ to wall street asshats and bankster fatcats means less money for main street stimulus means less income tax revenue and multiples of them stimulus greenbacks in the economy....means...oh shit...let's just fully nationalize finance and banking and be done with it already.
how is WFC OT? this is a bank thread... yes not WFC, but at least its much closer than aapl.
now... I own 500 Wells preferred. not huge but of my preferred it is one of 2 that are above water. I am very tempted to sell. However collecting 8.65 percent throgh 2013 is compelling. Again not a lot of money but I hate to lose.
"No one pronounced deflation yet have they, by any official measure?"
Bernanke said it's not possible. Invest against him at your own peril.
Personally so far I've found him to be a great contrary indicator.
When I get a sell indicator (Bernanke saying the worst is past) I immediately cross reference against my secondary indicator (Cramer saying the bottom is in).
you posted that you were shorting the film industry. A friend on mine works in the biz (sound editing) in NYC and reports that it's f-ed up out there. Last year, a bunch of films had to cancel in the middle of production because financing ran out. Even though the majors use a same ass backwards distribution/licensing financing model, I think they'll be fine.
Interestingly, she said that the movie industry was a lot like the restaurant/bar industry. Lots of newly wealthy idiots (ahem investors) like to fund these films to appear important or to be around celebrities. Nothing like being the 20th executive producer on a B-rated movie starring Jessica Biel.
Record debt issuance by countries around the world
Record debt is necessary to fix the problem.
BOE's Goodhart gets it. Its going to take a masive fiscal response to address collapse in agregate demand and federal govt's don't rely on buyers of bonds to undertake the spending.
Goodhart Says 'Sack' DMO to Bolster U.K. Economy (Bloomberg) - Prime Minister Gordon Brown should "sack" the U.K. Debt Management Office and refrain from issuing government bonds as a way of bolstering the economy, former Bank of England policy maker Charles Goodhart said. "The one single thing that I would like to see, in a sense to get us out of the present problem, would be very simple," Goodhart told lawmakers on Parliament's Treasury Committee today. "It would be: sack the Debt Management Office and just not issue gilts for quite a long time so that the huge deficit simply comes into the system in the form of increases in liquidity and increases in the money supply."
Policy makers are seeking new tools to fight the recession as interest rates approach zero. Brown's government plans an unprecedented 146.4 bln pounds ($214.15 bln) of debt sales in the fiscal year ending March 31 to finance bank bailouts amid a decline in tax revenue.
"To keep the system sufficiently liquid and monetary growth sufficiently high, the government ought to be under- funding the deficit," Goodhart said. "When banks are having difficulty in lending to the private sector, there needs to be a much greater expansion of lending to the public sector."
Underfunding the gap would see the government selling fewer bonds than are necessary to pay for its budget deficit. That leaves more money in the hands of investors who may have spent them on gilts, keeping more money in the economy than would otherwise be the case. Brown forecasts a deficit of 118 bln pounds in the year through March 2010, or 8 % of gross domestic product, the most since modern records began in 1970.
"Under-funding the deficit would be far less damaging to the economy that to force some minimum of lending," Goodhart said yesterday.
Sinomania! writes:
OT - california state just announced that many filers want get their state refunds anytime soon - IOU
Sinomania! | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 7:25 pm | #
Here's what ticks me off.
These bozos are going the IOU route. However, if we decided to not file, file late, or just not pay what we owe, then look out!
What a double standard.
When will we wake up and stop allowing this nonsense to continue?
We continue to take it and what I want to know is why?
When folks talk about "nationalizing" the banks, what do they mean and are they all talking about the same thing?
Good question. I don't think anyone wants a government to run a bank long-term, but nationalizing a bank can make for orderly disposition whether you're selling off parts, etc. Your points are well taken, though. Personally, I don't think bankruptcy is the answer, but it would be much better than what's being practiced now.
But when you talk about a Swedish-style nationalization scheme, the plan is always to sell off as much of the nationalized assets as quickly as possible. The idea is that with the government in control, it can sell enterprises that have value, recapitalize enterprises that would be saved by recapitalization, and kill off enterprises that cant be saved through any kind of feasible injection of capital. The goal isnt to have the government running all the banks permanently, its to create a situation where people know that the banks are sound. In particular, where they know that the banks that have been rescued have really been cured rather than just put on life support. At the moment, nobody knows which banks demise has really been avoided and which merely forestalled.
sg
Governments buying their own debt/printing money is extremely effective at reinflating. Trouble is no one has ever managed to quickly stop the pot from boiling over, always causes some kind of fire
I personally would like to see Arnie and all the other CA reps have their pay ceased until a budget is in place.
They get paid (by us) to do their job. Two of their major job responsibilities are to
A) work with others
B) get a budget in place
If I dont do 2 of my major job responsibilities, I get fired. If they dont, they start taking pay away from others?!
Bullshit. they need incentive. That incentive is a paycheck. Hold it from them till its passed. If they go 2 weeks w/o passing a budget - they lose the paycheck and it goes into the general fund. Continue till a balanced budget is passed. If it needs revision, start withholding pay again.
"Bank of America told the government in December that it was unlikely to complete its purchase of Merrill Lynch because of the losses, a person familiar with the matter said. The bank and the government have been speaking since then."
Yeah? And most schools have wireless. And most school sys admins are stoopid (my good friend is IT Director at Fullerton CA school district...great stories he has).
Anonymous writes:
sg
Governments buying their own debt/printing money is extremely effective at reinflating. Trouble is no one has ever managed to quickly stop the pot from boiling over, always causes some kind of fire
I dont see an alternative. When all asset prices are falling all banks are bankrupt - its the nature of the system - and all households rertench. Its a devastating spiral and the fedarl gov't is the only entity that can support demand at this point. I would like to see a payroll tax holidy and a plan to get all non transportation energy from non oil sources in 4 years. It woul prevent drag from crude price surge when demand returns.
Steven writes:
Have inflation indexed loans ever been tried?
Inflation indexed mortgages are quite common in Mexico. Most of the loans underwritten by INFONAVIT , the government housing agency are done in UDI's (Unidades De Inversion) which are indexed to the inflation rate. You can also invest in UDI based savings vehicles. This was implemented as part of the recovery after the 1994 peso devaluation.
Has anyone seen the guy with the "registered trade mark name"?? He was the one who said there were no discussions about BAC/Mer deal...he was dead wrong...
bgates: Aapl has an excellent opportunity but is blowing it. If only they'd match the market aggression they've shown on the consumer side. It's not as simplistic as I make it sound here but you get the idea.
Does anyone know what the total $ amount is in mortgage debt nationwide?
What about the total $ amount for consumer debt?
Just wondering what the difference would have been if we'd have zeroed out everyone's mortgage debt compared to what we're shelling out to save every quasi-financial institution in America.
Zeroing out mortgage debt would have definitely stimulated the economy. Wipe out debt and people will spend. They'll probably spend themselves right back into debt, but it's still just as worthy of a thought as gifting our tax dollars to banker bonuses, which is another temporary stop gap, until they spend it and need another fix.
Sorry had to eat. Public and private banks can coexist, just like schools, hospitals, transportation, bottled and tap water, energy sources... I said 20 % reserve, emphasis on safety. Low interest on savings. JPM is free to outbid for all the Wall Street genius and keep only 10% reserve, so they can make great profit, as always. (Once they've paid back TARP money) Maybe their 90 trillion will all be winning bets.
So, Lucifer, you'd let them all fail in the name of free enterprise? I would have. Too late.
Dirk: Thanks. I believe we're at the event horizon where we must choose what we want to be as a nation. It's all about priorities and what is important in life. As past beliefs are shredded, it might be easier to pick a better path. Picking through the debris, kind of.
During an earlier thread that was moving the speed of light, the commentariat was discussing Americans' desire for a disaster. Perhaps they want something definitive so it's easier to choose the new direction.
As to the responses reg. CA tax IOUs, I couldn't agree more.
I would love to see their checks tied to performance. Crikey, get a balanced budget and pass it.
Second, as to not being organized. It truly is a shame. Could you imagine 2-3 million marching on Sacramento? Ahnold would be crapping his pants. He would have to call out the national guard or ask the chimp or Obama for help.
I don't always agree w/Denninger. but I will say this: he is spot on with calls for action.
Until we change our behavior, everything will continue to work against us.
These clowns that hold office just don't care, either at the state or fed level.
the shadow writes:
citigroup is old news. keep an eye on toaster salesman lewis -- merrill deal can't complete until government undertakes substantial charity to countrywide
meanwhile pillow castle builder sir dimon is a knight without a horse and he now realizes the credit card delinquency army emerging from the forest. at least he got wamu inside the gates before the trouble started
the shadow | 01.10.09 - 2:42 am | #
I believe the unenthusiastic single response was:
"Huh? The deal is done, and it's pretty much settled that BAC's not on the hook for Countryfried's debt."
So, Lucifer, you'd let them all fail in the name of free enterprise? I would have. Too late. 1 currency soon [yogi] | 01.14.09 - 8:21 pm | #
Lucifer,
I disagree VEHEMENTLY with nationalizing the banks, or starting a national bank, etc. However, what you may not be quite ready to accept is that we are ALREADY nationalizing the banks. That is just one more reason TARP sucks.
1 Currency Soon is presenting a case for the logical completion of the path we are already on. Although, it does appear he supports Marx's idea...
Kind of like the guy who hurls after drinking one too many...only to learn that the same thing happened the weekend before. Sooner or later, you start feeling sorry for him...and wondering just what he was thinking.
Conjure, As promised I crunched some numbers to check your clock. By my reckoning you're either one or two seconds slow - I lean toward two. If my calculations are right it's 23:59:58 now.
The two potential ticks remaining are January 23 and January 30.
January 23 is the day the nation realized Obama does not have a magic wand he can wave and make it all better. The euphoria of him taking his office will wear off - probably the day before - and we'll get a gut check. Why the 23d in particular, however? I expect to see a bank failure that day. I don't know which, and it really doesn't matter. It's the proof that'll demonstrate gravity still works. Yes, I expect at least one bank failure a week for the next few weeks.
January 30 is the release date for the advance GDP. As Dirk noted a few threads ago, it's likely to be pushing 5.5% in the hole. The census monthly retail numbers have been -2.5 to -2.7 for the entire quarter. RRE was plunging as steeply as it had at any other part of the year, and CRE found the cliff edge that quarter as well. There'll be a false improvement in the Im/Ex portion as the deficit isn't as bad - never mind that total exports have dropped almost 5% in the quarter. I'm not expert enough to know if the bailout will show in the Federal Government block; if so, that part will look decent, while if not Federal Government's performance will also be on the low side. Regardless of the fed numbers, however, the state numbers are going to be in definite decline as so many states cut waaay back on so many things in December (and to some extent in November).
I think, actually, that Dirk may be off - it may be as deep as 7% loss for 4Q08. Regardless, the fact it's a decline with zero wiggle room in the "adjustments" will send most of the US into shell shock. I figure the global pop will occur hard on the heels of that announcement.
"Smurfit-Stone Container Corp., one of the country's largest makers of cardboard boxes, has told lenders it could file for bankruptcy amid weakening sales and a cash crunch, people familiar with the matter said."
Those bastards! I was using them for my bando addition.
"If only they'd match the market aggression they've shown on the consumer side."
seems to me they're as dominant as ever vs windows in terms of entertainment production, especially at the mid-end. i think their main issue is just overvaluation as a stock (aside from the vacuum when the Dear Leader is gone).
" That incentive is a paycheck. "
Surely you jest. It is my impression that Arnie has a very, very large multiple of the gov salary in CA real estate. The market conditions surrounding those investments is infinitely more important to him than a few grand a week. Other sacto power players are a similar story on a smaller scale.
Their funding has been gutted by Congress and as result they still, today, have a hiring freeze. lama | 01.14.09 - 8:32 pm | #
Prosecutions are handled by the DOJ, I think. Apparently, there is a HUGE backlog of pending cases that prosecuters are holding on to until there is an administration that is willing to enforce laws on white collar crime.
The ablility to BK a great deal of very wealthy people via CDS default.
Blackhalo
Then how wealthy are they, really? The key to their wealth is not in their own hands.
Also, all companies who are insolvent should be forced into bankruptcy. All of you on the nationalization bandwagon are just wishing for money printing and abdication of all responsibility. Once the dollar is toast, a new currency will be very hard to institute and everyone will wish they had hard assets.
Broker writes:
"Unpaid debt will lead to bankruptcy of banks which have to be nationalised and State will have to take the road which will eventually lead to communism."
Karl Marx, Das Kapital 1867
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Could it be relisted, or are they at the point where they are stuck in pink sheet purgatory until the US Treasury directs some fresh money towards the BofA beast?
Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economic stimulus package being negotiated in Congress will cost $850 billion and will include about $300 billion in tax cuts, said President-elect Barack Obama’s incoming chief of staff.
Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel spoke with reporters today at the Capitol in Washington, where lawmakers are rushing to work out details of the two-year plan. Obama and lawmakers had previously been discussing a package of about $775 billion. Earlier today, Democratic Senator Charles Schumer of New York said the price tag might rise to as much $850 billion.
I'm willing to personally save the global economic system, but only if Ben Bernanke and Henry Paulson perform a Karaoke duo version of Britney Spears "I'm not a girl, not yet a woman"
You've obviously never paid your taxes online. And I assume you hire private letter carriers. I will be riding Amtrak to DC for the Franken brunch. Still best way to get from NYC to DC with fewer than 3 travelers.
Interestingly, she said that the movie industry was a lot like the restaurant/bar industry. Lots of newly wealthy idiots (ahem investors) like to fund these films to appear important or to be around celebrities. Nothing like being the 20th executive producer on a B-rated movie starring Jessica Biel.
anonymous | 01.14.09 - 8:04 pm | #
Back in the 1990s, triads used to actually kidnap bankable Hong Kong film stars and ransom them in return for agreements to star in films bankrolled by them
the late Anita Mui actually had a bodyguard killed defending her from such an attempt, I think, and others deliberately stayed out of triad territory in Kowloon to avoid this sort of thing
also, Taiwanese director Hou Hsiao-Hsien, one of the great filmmakers of this era, also apparently relied to on triad funds from
Taiwan and Hong Kong to make classics like City of Sadness and The Puppetmaster
apparently, it was a badge of honor among triads to be able to say that you financed a winner of the Golden Lion at the Venice Film Festival
The mp organization has now moved to DEFCON 3. mp | 01.14.09 - 8:35 pm | #
The dawg pound commisary officer just bought more polished rice and the armorer has checked the expiration date on the ammo we don't own that doesn't fit in the gun(s) we don't own in case the government we can't trust cannot provide the civil peace they claim we won't finance with taxes we cannot afford.
Good catch, Yalt! I googled it, and you're right.
Outsider | 01.14.09 - 8:42 pm | #
It just didn't make any sense that it was Marx, quite aside from how conveniently current the concerns expressed were. Marx's prediction was that diminishing returns would force owners to immiserate their workers, which in turn would force the workers to revolt. He never foresaw management making a sort of peace with organized labor, or somebody like Ford increasing workers's pay to drive demand for his product. Questions of adequate aggregate demand weren't on his agenda (although there are some vague hints in this direction in Book 3) and as far as I know weren't seriously addressed by socialists until around 1900 or so.
Maybe if he'd lived another 75 years he'd have seen something like this coming, but he didn't.
Henry Ford was convicted of violating labor laws when Ford was last car maker not to recognize collective bargaining. Specifically hiring intimidating goons.
The freeriding non-union auto worker in the red states will find life much more difficult without UAW as a human shield.
BAC has one of two check clearing house systems that exist in the US. They aren't going anywhere, which is not to say that common stock is staying around.
Also if you want to find out which banks world-wide will most likely make the cut when the ring-fence goes up google for the list of primary-dealers world-wide. Someone else had the list on here within the last few threads.
OCDan: I've picked through the debris of a life. The choices get easier and clarity returns. American living is distraction overload. Maybe that's what Americans are looking for.
Personally, I could do without the financial collapse but would welcome a social revolution.
President Hugo Chávez, buffeted by falling oil prices that threaten to damage his efforts to establish a Socialist-inspired state, is quietly courting Western oil companies once again.
Until recently, Mr. Chávez had pushed foreign oil companies here into a corner by nationalizing their oil fields, raiding their offices with tax authorities and imposing a series of royalties increases. ...
A tactful and sensitive move by the Czech government:
"A Prague-commissioned art installation now on display at the European Council building in Brussels wound up angering quite a few EU members...."
[snip]
"Prague selected Europe Without Borders as its motto in a bid to push for overcoming nationalism and separate states agendas within the European Union. The art installation was to be part of this theme of overcoming national stereotypes to better form a cohesive group. To this end, the 8-ton mosaic portrays Bulgaria as a Turkish toilet, Romania as a vampire theme park, France as an on strike sign, Poland as four Roman Catholic priests raising a gay pride flag Iwo Jima-style, Germany as a motorway network that resemble a swastika and so forth.
Google 'terra preta' - that is what you want to do to the crappy NH soil you put in your raised bed garden... from the National Geographic. I've read about it elsewhere - basically make charcoal from wood or yard waste and incorporate it into your soil. Dramatically improves fertility.
It's getting close to war time. Any war will do. Rile up the populace, fire up those factories, call in Rosie the Riveter. Read Chris Hedges' "War is a Force that Gives Us Meaning," it will all become clear...
Any predictions from the tin-foils here? ShortCourage | 01.14.09 - 7:01 pm | #
An observation that should be as good as a prediction: last year the equities market fell steep;y whenever the Treasury issued large numbers of bonds. The money to buy them had to come from somewhere. We had a respite the last six weeks. Now it is starting up again at a rate of about $30B /week as far as the eye can see.
Good news, bad news, earnings, irrelevant. It's all about liquidity, and there won't be any.
Weather Helm writes:
"TPC writes:
CFC was totally insolvent and B of A took them out at, what, $5? Merrill was totally insolvent and B of A offered, what, $29 for them?"
Well, from my understanding (which isn't much) Lewis to stiff the CFC creditors while buying their stock at $5.
Now, Lewis is stiffing the US Taxpayer for excess asset losses while buying ML.
Seems to me he's getting sweetheart deals. Definitely better than say, GoldenWest or Ditech. I think he should be indicted for fraud, but if he isn't so indicted, then the stockholders might make out well.
That is, might.
Weather Helm | 01.14.09 - 7:25 pm | #
BofA also vastly overpaid for U.S. Trust and Lasalle. Heck of a job!
Pissed Off In California writes:
Also if you want to find out which banks world-wide will most likely make the cut when the ring-fence goes up google for the list of primary-dealers world-wide. Someone else had the list on here within the last few threads.
You mean like Lehman? The Primary Dealer card was played once already
Dirk: I will. Public TV last night had a good documentary on the evolution of the financial crisis -- excellent for the uninitiated who are going right about now -- WTF???
To this end, the 8-ton mosaic portrays Bulgaria as a Turkish toilet, Romania as a vampire theme park, France as an on strike sign, Poland as four Roman Catholic priests raising a gay pride flag Iwo Jima-style, Germany as a motorway network that resemble a swastika and so forth..
sounds right on the money, Madoff investors should shoulder enough dough to get it plastered at the Smithsonian....it would be a nice feather.
1 currency soon [yogi] writes:
Henry Ford was convicted of violating labor laws when Ford was last car maker not to recognize collective bargaining. Specifically hiring intimidating goons.
I wasn't suggesting that Ford treated his workers well or had, personally, "made a sort of peace with organized labor," just that he realized that if workers were paid more they'd buy more of his cars. It was one of the necessary steps towards avoiding Marx's prediction.
If it's between gardening and a study of Russian politics, I pick gardening.
I read a book once by a guy who claimed you can improve soil and make a garden out of anything - and to prove it he grew a garden in his gravel.
My problem is those darn granite boulders that the glaciers left behind. I can't get into raised beds - not for the size garden I want. If we're still cash-based in the spring, I'm hiring a back hoe.
Well, from my understanding (which isn't much) Lewis to stiff the CFC creditors while buying their stock at $5.
Not guaranteeing Countryside's debt was just a way of retaining some negotiating power with the debtholders--make them incur legal expenses to go after payment and maybe get them to agree to a haircut. They'd never get away with a total default (unless BAC itself was insolvent) and I seriously doubt it was ever their intention. "Stiffing the CFC creditors" seems a bit harsh.
I see a long queue of supplicants. A table and chair where sits a decider. One question, "What are your marketable and serviceable skills". Guard towers, weaponry, very intolerant of inconformity.
Three outcomes.
(1) comrade is vital to war industries--readily employable in the homeland.
(2) comrade is semi-skilled or unskilled but trainable. Conscript soldier or grunt in war-related industries
(3) "untouchables": unskilled and determined to be untrainable, or previously employed in state targeted parasite sectors i.e. title insurers, r.e. agents, insurance, financial, bloated bureaucracy, politics, bloggers. Disposable, or held hostage for tribute from loved ones...then disposed of.
Grim, very grim, and despairingly, inutterably grim.
It's getting close to war time. Any war will do. Rile up the populace, fire up those factories, call in Rosie the Riveter. Read Chris Hedges' "War is a Force that Gives Us Meaning," it will all become clear...
mal | 01.14.09 - 9:02 pm | #
Keynes suggested that we bury mason jars of $ out in the desert and have compaines go "mine for them" Others have suggested digging holes in the desert and then filling them up. One could also make tons and tons of steel and then dump them into the Atlantic. All of these would produce a stimulus to the economy. War is actually very much like the last of these, and suffers from the drawback that sailors are often sitting on the tons and tons of steel that gets sent to the bottom of the Atlantic. War is simply massive fiscal stimulus, but very ineffective stimulus from a bang for the buck. However, it is easier to summon the political will to use lots and lots of stimulus, and the resulting debt, when the country is trying to make the world safe for democracy or something. I prefer more peacul and long term useful economic stimulus.
My problem is those darn granite boulders that the glaciers left behind. I can't get into raised beds - not for the size garden I want. If we're still cash-based in the spring, I'm hiring a back hoe. Outsider | 01.14.09 - 9:06 pm | #
Watch the video - on the NG site.
A series of small intensively managed gardens will produce a LOT of produce... if you were able to transform the dirt you put into your beds via 'terra preta' methods you'd have outputs as good or better than Iowa & Illinois best farmland... the problem is making the terra preta - it is literally a lost art and people are trying to recreate the methods. That might be my project for next summer - my wife will shudder. There are a number of research articles & recipes for making terra preta on the web - I'm digging into them now in prep for next summer.
Rather than the public realizing that Obama doesn't have a magic wand to cure everything, I think there's another question. What surprise will Bush and Hank leave for the new admin? In this case, 'surprise' means something the public doesn't know yet. Cause you know they're going to roll a huge stinkin' turd under the door on their way out of town.
Find humus on land, use screed to winnow out gravel and stone. Add few scoops sand, few scoops perlite, few scoops peat moss. Add compost or manure. Test PH. Add gypsum or lime to neutral or slightly acidic. Mix well. Add a few red worms, and beneficial soil bacteria. Use 2X6's to create raised bed. Create trellis on far side from sun exposure with pvc pipe in U shape. Connect side rails to bed with screws. String 6 equally distant strands from bed wall to top pole stile. Tomatoes, beans, cucumbers, climbing plants.
Add plants, sunshine, water.
8'X 8' raised garden can easily feed 4. Easy to weed, easy to manage, no waste. Repeat yearly.
Plant 5 fruit trees. Currants, gooseberries, raspberries, blackberries, grapes.
More food than you could ever consume. Wild game browsers can supplement the diet of a sharpshooter. In urban settings, nightime neighbor looters may also be bagged and set aside for the stewpot. Hungry people are stupid people, or driven off the land.
I acknowledge the point, but still...there is the war of miscalculation, of misunderstanding, the war that nobody wants, war as the product of an awful and inexorable logic, war by mistake, by stupidity, war of desperation and provocation, the war of unexpected consequences, war by lunacy, war as an escape of or supposed resolution of the pressures of internal contradiction, war as a gamble, and others, I guess.
IIRC, we've escaped the Big War by a hair's breadth at least twice since the early 80s. Once it was because the Soviets mis-read a NATO exercise, once because of a mistaken interpretation of a missile launch.
The fall of the SU presented its own dangers.
There is too much power out there for anyone to feel completely safe.
This economic crisis is one more factor of stress. We should all be moving quite calmly and deliberately, because the world is armed to the teeth.
"Artists and bureaucrats don't usually see eye to eye. "
I once received a sizable government grant for writing. I traveled and saw an elaborate Hindu shrine in the attic of a Belgian farmhouse, a passenger shouting angrily at the driver of a Dublin bus (the bus was parked by the side of the Liffey and everyone, including the driver, was standing alongside of the bus, looking subdued), drunken teen-agers copulating on the lawn of the President's house in Reykjavik while the police stood there and laughed, and other edifying sights.
The NLRB, for what's left of its relevance, has functioned as a reasonable compromise regulatory scheme which has been generally successful at avoiding ideological labeling.
DC Dawg, you forgot to add "newly single". Glad i made your night. Funny you mentioned it - the encore was US Blues into Ripple, so very appropriate. 12/31 was a show for the books >; )
Anon: I have some Turley Aida stashed away along with some Moore. Now to see if there is still a 96 Dickerson rolling here.
In counter to my proposed correction of Conjure's global depression clock, I do not expect a global collapse. No replacement of the dollar with gold or other commodity based currency. No separation of the US into several new nation-states. None of that. There are a great many more forks and options, but the ones that lead to total global collapse are less likely. I'll write in another post a defense of this position citing numbers and references, but the core is simple: excluding derivatives, US debts are less than US total worth, leaving us with a positive net worth. Yes, the derivatives bubble issue requires resolution, just as another century (in which commodities based currencies were the ONLY currencies) had to recover from the Tulip Bubble's effects.
I plan to expand this within the next couple of days, and try to post within a thread that at least nominally keeps it on topic.
Kirk Spencer writes:
In counter to my proposed correction of Conjure's global depression clock, I do not expect a global collapse. No replacement of the dollar with gold or other commodity based currency. No separation of the US into several new nation-states. None of that....
i dont expect global collapse
i dont expect my house to burn down
i dont expect to have a head on collision
i dont expect a sudden heart attack nor a diagnosis of cancer
i dont expect a violent home invasion
but, but
i have insurance (of a kind) against all of these remote but quite possible events
How do you propose to enumerate total net worth? Level 3 is off a cliff. People thought their money market, munibond, Madoff money was level 1. Corpate earnings are at best a possibility. We don't really know how much was spent in Iraq. I could go on.
Is that the dirt used by the native americans in the Amazon to create their mound gardens? NorkaWest | 01.14.09 - 10:14 pm | #
Sort of a 'yes' - it is in the Amazon & locals still plant on it & the stuff is super fertile but they are ancient man made formations and nobody is quite sure how they made it.
Make sure to see tonight's Back in Black on the Daily Show. Startling who all is asking for a bailout. I had not heard of the United States Postal Service being one.
Citigroup would easily be seen as bankrupt if its SIVs were brought back on the balance sheet and all of its assets marked to market. The same applies to dozens of other banks as well. The entire US banking system is insolvent.
The big question is: Is this "Bank of REAL America", or just "Bank of America". Coz, I sure don't want to save a bank that later turns out to be just another "BIG CITYbank"...
@Kirk Spencer
You left out the variable of 'geopolitics' leading to 'global collapse' as a Greek ship full of bunker busters and tons of toxic ammo is to be delivered to Israel plus the 1000 bunker busters they were sold already by the USA.
Sounds like a lotta firepower for Gaza or is the plan to take out Iran and maybe Lebanon & Syria? Better factor in this 'political factor' or variable into the 'global economy situation' to be smart.
Of course no discussion of these latest shipments of weapons in the media. How come?
Didn't they take their first round of unwanted TARP money and buy a Chinese bank?
But I'd always suspected that both the Merrill and Countrywide deals were orders, not choices, with an explicit promise they'd be made whole on any losses.
OCDan wrote: "These bozos [California] are going the IOU route. However, if we decided to not file, file late, or just not pay what we owe, then look out!"
So go to your employer, and have your state withholding reduced to zero. Then send California the IOU back, in place of that withholding. If you have to do quarterly estimated tax, send the IOU in place of that payment.
Not, mind you, your own IOU; the exact same piece of paper they sent you. You might want to endorse the back or something similar, as with a check.
If you really want to cause trouble, send the IOU in place of your Federal withholding or estimated payments. Though I'm not sure just where that trouble would fall.
TPC wrote: "The problem with creating new national banks is that we'd have a run on EVERY single existing bank. Who would keep their money at JPM when they could bank at Bank of US Government?"
Because JPM, as a private company, is naturally more efficient and better able to compete than any possible government entity. JPM will thus be able to pay you a better interest rate, provide more convenient services, and otherwise act to attract your business.
Were this not true, the entire basis of the libertarian philosophy would be called into doubt.
Weren't we just talking about this?
You can bet that this will NOT be the first "re-load" of bailout cash.
Perhaps going long wheelbarrows and helicopters is in order.
oob question: are there ANY banks considered safe? I was under the impression BAC and WFC were the safest.
posted at tail-end of last thread.
Business and financial news - CNNMoney.com newsfe...e_15000_ge.html
In case you missed it.
OT
Governor Sonny Purdue wants to eliminate all Georgia homestead exemptions!
That will go over real well. Not.
Nationalizing all the large banks is beginning to look inevitable.
am I supposed to find this funny or terrifying?
noob question: are there ANY banks considered safe?
dafox | 01.14.09 - 6:53 pm | #
Yes; Lots of smaller banks, mine included. However, most nationally know banks are heavily exposed.
time to merge C & BAC
In addition to getting out of stocks over a year ago, I also got my total $ at BofA down below the FDIC limit last year.
Off to the tip jar. I'll bet CNBC doesn't have a tip jar.
yey! I own even more BAC than I thought!
"time to merge C & BAC
irreverent"
Maybe there will be just one big "Bank of Everything". That would get rid of a lot of counterparty risk.
That is easy..
BAC becomes Federal bank of America Corporation Inc.
Citi becomes Federal bank of Citigroup Inc.
//Nationalizing all the large banks is beginning to look inevitable.
RW | 01.14.09 - 6:54 pm | #//
am I supposed to find this funny or terrifying?
terrifying. oh wait, I thought you were talking about Obama's inauguration.
merging C + BAC + MS =
Cerebrus!
BOA should be solvent by now - they take a $10 fee for everytime I request a cash advance.
Dafox go to boombustblog.com and read about the "doodoo 32" and as much else as you can stand. Never mind the cocky blogger he called it all and explains why.
The market was shrugging off all bad news until just the past couple days.
This (along with the accumulation of other bad news, including the new uncertainty about Treasury secretary and its potential delay of Obama's stimulus measures) has the feel of yet another panic-selling trigger.
If market shrugs this off, I'll be surprised. Throw in some surprisingly bad earnings announcements from IBM and/or Apple next week, and there could be a nasty drop.
Any predictions from the tin-foils here?
If a bank pays a dividend to its stockholders it is cheating someone else out of money. Banks should not be public stock corporations.
I am shocked..
Bank of America May Be the Next Citi, Rosner Says (Update2)
By Jody Shenn and David Mildenberg
Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp., after buying troubled rivals Merrill Lynch & Co. and Countrywide Financial Corp., may need the type of government aid provided to Citigroup Inc., Graham Fisher & Co.s Joshua Rosner said.
Given our economic outlook, it seems reasonable to consider BofA may be the next Citi, Rosner, a managing director in New York at the investment-research firm, wrote in a note to clients today.
Bank of America, the largest U.S. bank by assets, JPMorgan Chase & Co., the second-largest, and Wells Fargo & Co., the biggest U.S. bank by stock-market value, have so far outperformed competitors, posting profits amid the U.S. housing collapse, market turmoil and global recession.
All the banks are insolvent. The game is up. The Ponzi economy is collapsing. It will take 18 trillion dollars to solve this problem.
BOA should be solvent by now - they take a $10 fee for everytime I request a cash advance.
Tiberius | 01.14.09 - 6:58 pm | #
You should take KarlDenniger's advice:
"And Your Excuse Is?"
The Market Ticker - Entries from January 2009
I have been saying that for over 2 years.. they are the walking dead.
//leggo writes:
All the banks are insolvent. The game is up. The Ponzi economy is collapsing. It will take 18 trillion dollars to solve this problem.
leggo | 01.14.09 - 7:02 pm | #//
Nobody could have forseen that Countrywide would be a bad purchase.
Anyone want to guess when the label "The Mother of All Bailouts" won't be used by CR anymore?
2009, 2010, or 2011?
I am going to copyright " The Bailout Singularity"
//Anyone want to guess when the label "The Mother of All Bailouts" won't be used by CR anymore?
2009, 2010, or 2011?
friardaddy | 01.14.09 - 7:05 pm | #//
Hoocoodanode?
Nobody could have forseen that Countrywide would be a bad purchase.
iceman | 01.14.09 - 7:04 pm |
LOL!!!
are you still paying taxes??
btw, does it occur to the top ppl that there are forcing bankruns as the last means of fightback against this crap??
The Feds need to establish some consumer fairness conditions for additional aid to BofA, and set-aside resources to monitor and enforce those conditions.
BofA just pulled a new bait-n-switch credit card cash advance tactic where they offer great i-rates and, in my case, no transaction fee. But they set an invisible deadline for those terms that you can't know in advance: 1. The deadline is not based on ur transaction date (which u can control), but on the date the bank chooses to post the transaction, in my case on the Statement Closing Date; 2. They reserve the right to move around the monthly Statement Closing Date and not post it in writing in advance; and 3. They reserve the right to sit on the transaction and post it when their staff is ready to.
Mind-boggling.
I deposit once of their cash advance access checks with one of their tellers who calls it in before processing it, all at 2pm, and BofA claims they could not post the transaction for 3 business days...just enuff time to nullify the great terms of the bait-n-switch offer.
What low-life institutional thievery.
Wow. And they spent, like, a whole Sunday afternoon figuring this deal out and everything.
It's a good thing Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, AIG, Citi, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo are all doing okay and won't need any more money.
Our financial markets have become one big gossip column. It has to collapse now before any confidence is restored. We can't recover until that confidence comes back.
And it's gonna take more than the Madoff semi-perp-walk to appease the masses. The gossip columnists, especially CNBC, are hiding behind his crimes to absolve them of their own.
Our financial markets have become one big gossip column. It has to collapse now before any confidence is restored. We can't recover until that confidence comes back.
And it's gonna take more than the Madoff semi-perp-walk to appease the masses. The gossip columnists, especially CNBC, are hiding behind his crimes to absolve them of their
Since we are throwing money in a black hole, let us call this bailout " The Bailout Singularity"
//t's a good thing Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, AIG, Citi, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo are all doing okay and won't need any more money.
Speed | 01.14.09 - 7:11 pm | #//
OT Obama's stimulus: here's what is next, bulldoze the homes:
Townhall.com Blog : Amanda Carpenter : Mayor Daley Seizes Homes During Down Housing Market
Check out the video, it is Chicago's Jim the Realtor (but not funny)
Is it me or are bailouts to big financials getting passe. Another day, another billion. Million is begining to look like small change as the money printing presses continue to churn out greenbacks.
thanks yogi. reading now.
Governor Sonny Purdue wants to eliminate all Georgia homestead exemptions!
That will go over real well. Not.
Topher | 01.14.09 - 6:54 pm | #
Do you have a link to that?
Avl Dao | 01.14.09 - 7:10 pm | #
goodness. what a gripe you have. everyone knows that cash advances from credit cards are better known as DIP financing.
Obama is like Kevin Bacon in Animal House. "Remain calm, all is well"
That GE Capital firing is huge...of course the huge headlines have been flying too fast to keep up with. The Nortel BK is huge as well...I peg them for liquidation.
CFC was totally insolvent and B of A took them out at, what, $5? Merrill was totally insolvent and B of A offered, what, $29 for them?
And people praise Ken Lewis for his ability to acquire good assets? Is that a joke?
yahoo message boards on aapl are prety darned disturbing.
I'm going to go scrub my eyes with brillo pads now.
My bank bought me $1000 life insurance with Hartford. All I had to do was mail in the benficiary form. Ay 42 cents the letter I thought it was a bad bet.
The word "Bailout Fatigue" enters the DSM-IV as a clinical disease.
The symbol "BK/3" is now used to denote the Big Three Automakers.
The adjective "glory hole" takes on new meaning as a bank's balance sheet TARP reserve.
Kenny Boy - nice smile, lots of whitnening too...he has no clue as to how much he has bitten off
citizen Kung Fu Panda writes:
That GE Capital firing is huge...of course the huge headlines have been flying too fast to keep up with. The Nortel BK is huge as well...I peg them for liquidation.
Like I said above, this along with all the fast-breaking bad news has the feel of another panic-selling trigger. If the market shrugs all of this off, this is bear-market rally has some damn strong legs!
From what's been posted so far, this isn't a bailout, so much as a JPM style backstop on losses. Sounds like BAC was getting cold feet on the MER deal in December and pressed for better terms.
"Unpaid debt will lead to bankruptcy of banks which have to be nationalised and State will have to take the road which will eventually lead to communism."
Karl Marx, Das Kapital 1867
P.S. Krugman wouldn't mind a "temporary nationalisation of the banks." How about a "temporary communist gov." comrade Krugman?
Well they were tied at the hip with CFC when its problems surfaced but they could have foreseen this.
Nice titles from Yahoo AAPL msg boards:
NEW APPL PRICE TARGET........"6 FEET UNDER" by commander_...
Can the minds at Genentech save Jobs?
by johnnywish...
Steve's Next Job: I-fertilizer
by rumplestoc...
"Sounds like a severe case of indigestion"
I was thinking more along the lines of that limey glutton from Monty Python's Meaning of Life
Next time I tell you aapl has issues, y'all might want to listen.
ps blackhat hit it almost dead on but like any treatment, there are bound to be 'complications'.
Broker writes:
"Unpaid debt will lead to bankruptcy of banks which have to be nationalised and State will have to take the road which will eventually lead to communism."
Karl Marx, Das Kapital 1867
Wow.
OT - california state just announced that many filers want get their state refunds anytime soon - IOU
"TPC writes:
CFC was totally insolvent and B of A took them out at, what, $5? Merrill was totally insolvent and B of A offered, what, $29 for them?"
Well, from my understanding (which isn't much) Lewis to stiff the CFC creditors while buying their stock at $5.
Now, Lewis is stiffing the US Taxpayer for excess asset losses while buying ML.
Seems to me he's getting sweetheart deals. Definitely better than say, GoldenWest or Ditech. I think he should be indicted for fraud, but if he isn't so indicted, then the stockholders might make out well.
That is, might.
JPM's comments"
"The worst of the economic situation is not yet behind us. It looks as if it will continue to deteriorate for most of 2009, said Mr Dimon. In terms of our sector, we expect consumer loans and credit cards to continue to get worse.
"From what's been posted so far, this isn't a bailout, so much as a JPM style backstop on losses. Sounds like BAC was getting cold feet on the MER deal in December and pressed for better terms."
I'm not following how this isn't a bailout.
When they did the Merril deal, it looked like it was overpriced, Thain took Kenny for a ride, like wasnt it something like a 50% premium over where MER was trading on Friday. So BAC goes along, payig big divies (10+% yield) and MER pays out big bonuses. Then right after the close..OOOPS.
If we recap them again, min 10% div on preferred we get and warrents equal to 100% of bailout funds at today's close as strike. No more than $0.01 common dividend. No salaries over $400K (Obama's salary) and no bonuses, none, up and down the whole org. not just the top 4 or 5 guys.
california state just announced that many filers want get their state refunds anytime soon - IOU
I sense a business opportunity - I'll pay $.60 for every $1 of CA IOU.
@ Weather Helm
I don't see how B of A doesn't go the way of Citi.
Somehow, JPM with their mountain of level 3 assets seems to be whistling by the graveyard. How long before they begin to experience major problems???
Steve: Give It To Us Straight
"So intertwined are Apple and Jobs that the company does not countenance employee blogs lest the public attach some other face to the makers of iMacs and iPods...Apple's statement earlier this month that Jobs was suffering from a "hormone imbalance" that could be treated in a "relatively simple" manner brought guffaws from doctors, including oncologists. They will tell you that any such hormone imbalance is almost certainly a consequence of a recurrence of the pancreatic cancer that caused Jobs' brush with death in 2004....For his board members, direct reports, handlers and sundry factotums, dealing with Jobs at this point must be painful. Even in the best of times, he has never tolerated much in the way of dissent or independent thinking."
I don't see how any of our "big banks" will not be nationalized. They are insolvent.
Djane, did i miss what your comments were on aapl?
Bankruptcy law is strictly a tool to socialize losses. Its converse is executive compensation limits, or progressive capital gains tax, or proper antitrust enforcement and limits on capital reserves.
Redbaiting don't cut it anymore.
from last thread:
Nemo - Those are everyone's favorite movies >; )
As to the BK count, I'm reminded of hanging out in the parkng lot at Dead shows. You'd find folks hovering around the nitrous tank and the inevitable question was: 'what's the drop count?' or even shorter 'what's the beat?' Fairly appropriate questions these days
My favorite part about the Merrill deal was that people praised Thain for getting the merger done.
Thain destroyed the NYSE while paying himself millions and then drove Merrill's stock into the ground (granted he inherited much of the problems) while telling investors their balance sheet was "never stronger".
And people praise him as a CEO. I don't get it. The man has never made money for any of his shareholders.
Outsider writes:
Governor Sonny Purdue wants to eliminate all Georgia homestead exemptions!
That will go over real well. Not.
Topher | 01.14.09 - 6:54 pm | #
Do you have a link to that?
Outsider | 01.14.09 - 7:16 pm | #
Outsider, I saw it on the local news tonight. I checked the AJC for a story. No luck. I did however see that Cobb County where I live has a budget surplus. I wonder for how long.
Dirk you'd think those were obvious conditions for the Dem Congress to have put into 1st half TARP.
What a complete joke.
And the secretary of treasury designate is either a complete fool, or a simple cheat. He had been told he was responsible for paying this tax, acknowledged it in writing, and took the extra 7+% the IMF gave him to pay the tax. But it is an honest mistake to then not pay it? Are they serious?
From the New York Times:
"However, the I.M.F. does pay its American workers an amount equal to an employer"s half of the payroll taxes, with the expectation that they will use that to pay the I.R.S."
[http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/14/us/politics/14geithner.html]
From the Washington Post:
"Documents released by the Finance committee documented the errors made by Geithner. One showed his signature on a tax worksheet that states that he has an 'obligation of the U.S. Social Security tax, which I will pay on my fund income.'"
[http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/13/AR2009011302033_2.html]
How can he say he is unlikely to complete the deal if MER already stopped trading? I want an undo button for all my bad trades too.
Said before and I'll say it again: You do not fix solvency problems by loaning money to people.
You fix solvency problems by GIVING money to people... and even in the dying dies the Bush administration is up against the political difficulty of doing that... and it will be even harder for Obama. Paulson wants to but can't; Obama will not want to.
There are more chapters to this story and all the recent bonhomie about the financial crisis ending is premature.
I'm reminded of hanging out in the parkng lot at Dead shows.
Deadhead + French high heels...
Currently Accounting writes:
OT Obama's stimulus: here's what is next, bulldoze the homes:
CA,
As a long time resident of Chicago, I think "Richie" Daley is a meglamatic moron. Anybody who's aware of his "pre-dawn raid" on Meigs Field isn't surprised by the O'Hare/Bensonville debacle.
Not to sound paranoid or anything, but I have the funny feeling that the people at ML were told what their 2008 bonuses would be just a few days ago.
Imagine the difference if BofA had asked for the bailout before the bonuses were declared. I think once you've told people what they are getting as a bonus, you can't take it back.
I've worked in the industry for a while, and I've gotten some nice bonuses. I really can't figure out why large cash bonuses are being given out this year. I could be convinced that stock options might be the right thing, but cash?
Bob Weir and Mickey Hart will perform at Franken fundraiser brunch in DC Sunday. Terrapin Station was the Senator elect's theme music on his radio show.
Google is laying off 100 recruiters and closing some engineering offices, as the downturn continues to take its toll.
Is nothing sacred?
When folks talk about "nationalizing" the banks, what do they mean and are they all talking about the same thing? Are they talking about taking over the assets and liabilities of these monsters? Putting taxpayers on the hook for these huge liabilities makes no sense to me.
Nor does it make sense to try to put the politicians in a position of running the businesses on an ongoing basis. I don't trust them to do a good job. They will either fail and continue t bleed money or they will unfairly compete against more prudent enterprises that didn't require rescue. Finally, I don't trust the politicians to sell off the assets fairly and not create a generation of US oligarcs.
Run these pigs through bankruptcy like any other business that cannot pay its bills. The losses will be taken in any event and it is better that those who signed up for the risk take the hit than taxpayers.
this is not an aapl thread... back to the topic.
WFC seems to be remarkably unscathed. I have to believe the other shoe is going to drop this year.
Have inflation indexed loans ever been tried? It seems obvious solution to heavy debt with deflation.
Didn't Shiller suggest mortgage indexed to his housing index, to diffuse risk between the borrower and lender?
Anyone know if this has been tried anywhere? seems it would allow necessary deflation without growing the real debt burdens.
Its a market innovation that would ease the fear of deflation and allow the adjustment without panic (from our leaders)
WFC seems to be remarkably unscathed. I have to believe the other shoe is going to drop this year.
NOT Irving Fisher! | 01.14.09 - 7:38 pm | #
Yeah, it was odd a few weeks ago when Meredith Whitney said WFC was her favorite short. Not that I understand a single one of their black box balance sheets, but I figured they were one of the more healthy banks.
Apparently she sees things differently though....
No kidding, their time will come. Accounting tricks (changing their definition of delinquent accounts) can only hide their worthless 2nd lien paper in AZ and CA for so long.
I'd actually like to buy WFC as a LT hold ... but not until they come to Jesus on all of their toxic waste.
@NOT Irving Fisher! writes:
WFC seems to be remarkably unscathed. I have to believe the other shoe is going to drop this year.
NOT Irving Fisher! | 01.14.09 - 7:38 pm | #
Ca, can't tell you all the reasons why (I don't want to get Minervaed) but my buy price is $24 a share and I love the product as do many friends and aquaintenances in tech and media. Bob D's price is $15. We talked a bit about it in the last thread.
Now outside of the consumer division, if aapl could fix their Pro Apps issues I'd be more bullish but the light in that tunnel is wayyyyy down the road. I'm shorting the film industry these days so you know where I stand.
ps. not holding or buying appl, ymmv
Yogi,
They did Terrapin and Terrapin flyer at the new years show - best I'd ever heard Ratdog yet.
Non-GD folks will not get this >; )
"this is not an aapl thread... back to the topic."
Kewl! I like Fernanda Mello.
Brazilian bikini models - AskMen.com
Nostrovia,
NBER guys: Who funds you? I called the front desk and they gave me a vague answer. Something about an endowment...
CEPR guys: Front desk didn't even bother to pick up. Where do you get your money?
ice NIF, you b**** about aapl comments, then go OT yourself with WFC.
your an inspiration!
Anonymous: French high heels...anything like Hey Sailor Shoes or am I not getting it?
Congress should capitalize a new national bank, with absolute transparency, civil service hiring practices, 20% capital reserves (all at mark to market), ordinary FDIC 250k, interest paid target rate.
My cash goes there the minute it goes online.
deflationary jane,
Hmmmm...I'm still having issues with my iTouch...but I'm all thumbs with gadgets.
However, I suspect the sales of such gadgets is gonna slump hard.
Gotta admit it's pretty cool though...
Nostrovia,
Point 5 of the Communist Manifesto
"Centralisation of credit in the hands of the State, by means of a national bank with State capital and an exclusive monopoly."
1 currency soon [yogi] writes:
Congress should capitalize a new national bank, with absolute transparency, civil service hiring practices, 20% capital reserves (all at mark to market), ordinary FDIC 250k, interest paid target rate.
My cash goes there the minute it goes online.
The problem with creating new national banks is that we'd have a run on EVERY single existing bank. Who would keep their money at JPM when they could bank at Bank of US Government?
Steven: inflation indexed home mortgages have been tried, in Iceland for one. I believe the vast majority of local currency mortgages are currently inflation indexed there. A lot of folks underwater. It is crushing when you combine a deflating housing bubble with inflation when you have such a loan.
Don't forget the Buffet cult effect (now deflated) on WFC.
I have an addiction to Louboutin's, old vine Zin, and very acceptable champagne. Other women have addictions to RE. The trick is I can cover my losses >; )
1 currency soon [yogi],
So you want communism.. look at the communist manifesto. Just for fun..
Guess the compensation committee was right when they decided Thain shouldn't get a $10 million bonus.
creating new national banks
Would the National Bank of the US print its own notes?
I found a surprising quote attributed to Marc Faber on an out of the way website by chance. I don't have a date for it, but do you think he said it?
Marc Faber's comment on the US economy Investment analyst and entrepreneur Dr. Marc Faber concluded his monthly bulletin with the following: ''The federal government is sending each of us a $600 rebate. If we spend that money at Wal-Mart, the money goes to China. If we spend it on gasoline it goes to the Arabs. If we buy a computer it will go to India. If we purchase fruit and vegetables it will go to Mexico, Honduras and Guatemala. If we purchase a good car it will go to Germany/Japan. If we purchase useless crap it will go to Taiwan and none of it will help the American economy. The only way to keep that money here at home is to spend it on prostitutes and beer, since these are the only products still produced in US. I've been doing my part."
"if aapl could fix their Pro Apps"
is their relationship with Avid particularly dysfunctional? please elaborate.
I have an addiction to Louboutin's, old vine Zin, and very acceptable champagne.
Have much Turley?
Comrade Misean is Dope,
What sort of issues with your iTouch? I have had it for over 6 months.. have learned a lot of tricks.
PS- gadgets like the iTouch are very competitive with smaller netbooks. The browser on itouch is now very stable.
1 currency soon [yogi]
thanks for your kind words last night about my working with juvenile delinquents
ill share a story some weekend during off hours so as not to obstruct reg business
The Mrs. had a run-in with Countrywide yesterday. A manufactured home (1500 sq' on 1/2 acre) had just sold for $135,000. Across the street, the same size & home was just repo'd by Countrywide. Amt owed on repo was $65K - Countrywide didn't want more - they said they would have to kick it back to the old owners. Instead, sold it at $65K and killed the comps in the area.
TPC,
"The problem with creating new national banks is that we'd have a run on EVERY single existing bank."
Well there'd be a run...but if they were smart they'd stuff it in a mattress.
Great, a gov't owned and run bank...
Customer (9:59 AM): I'd like to withdraw funds.
Teller: -------
Customer (10:00 AM): Helloooo?
Teller: Are you threatening me?
Customer: Erm...no...Just want to withdraw funds.
Teller: I heard you the first time...
Customer: Yes? but you did not answer.
Teller: We open at 10:00 AM! Don't make me get the guard!
Customer: Sorry.
Teller: Here, fill this out, in quadruplicate...and don't forget to itemized for the IRS what you need CASH for.
Customer (11:59 AM): Here you are.
Teller: I'm sorry, we're closing for lunch. Come back at 1:30 PM ish.
Customer: ???
Nostrovia,
I am completely getting disgusted by the thievery.
Why we are in a deflationary spiral.
-too much debt
-not enough savings
-fraud
-believe the blackbox formula for investment risk, which is wrong
-greed
-too much entertainment, etc. that encourages people to live and consume like celebrities.
-everyone has a personal computer or video game and it adds no value except entertainment or is misused by making one think their exact calculations mean something regarding risk, etc.
Why the deflationary spiral starts now or this year.
-unemployment increase
-virtually no capital gains taxes paid as income tax.
-capital losses will offset income reducing taxes even more
-resulting in bankrupt states and municpalities.
-more employment
-less spending by consumer due to above
-mortgage resets
-cash flow restrictions even for those with no debt, because they do not want to take losses on investments to make purchases of homes, autos, etc.;this is way under-reported.
-not recovered from higher energy costs
-every investment looks like a fraud or overpriced.
The USA needs to figure out what we need to make of value to incerease the standard of living and protect the country's security. There also will need to be an effort to educate the citizens on how to live better with less consumption and not see it as so much of a sacrifice.
"Why the deflationary spiral starts now"
so you're going out on a limb and seeing oil falling back under $100?
Gee... will the gubmint give me enough cheeeeeze to buy myself my vewwy own insolvent financial corp?
When you eat no-fiber stuff, constipation can easily result.
I suggest deep colon irrigation for BOA, using a firehose followed by an acid rinse.
-more employment
That should have been "- more unemployment"
Somewhat OT, but 8 min of your life very well spent.
Crash Course Chapter 19: Future Shock - bubble | Crash Course Videos at Chris Martenson - bubble, Economy, exponential growth, Oil, retirement
lucifer,
Well...it doesn't like my Big Fing laptop...but my no.2 laptop is cool.
I'd have to mess with it to remember...
And I'm installing Win7 64 right now on my desktop...
Nostrovia,
We bury our savings where we know how to find them.
You...not so much.
A very good blog post:
This article resonated with me
Lambastes Bernanke for his unquestioned belief that the market must always in in equilibrium
He has attempted some cute little options to bypassing the banking system in providing credit, but overall I think he's fighting the same way that lost the Great Depression with.
All indications are that Obama will bring no new strategy.
In that case, cash beats both equities and debt at first. Then commodities kick up after money supply inflation lag. Then comes the time to clean up equities/debt during a consolidation period.
It's a long march ahead and the government is employing the Roman practice of decimation
Does your big laptop have windows XP media center edition?
"Well...it doesn't like my Big Fing laptop...but my no.2 laptop is cool."
"Why the deflationary spiral starts now"
so you're going out on a limb and seeing oil falling back under $100?
No one pronounced deflation yet have they, by any official measure?
Bro Manziere writes:
"Sounds like a severe case of indigestion"
I was thinking more along the lines of that limey glutton from Monty Python's Meaning of Life
Bro Manziere | 01.14.09 - 7:24 pm | #
Thanks for that link. I still laugh my ass off every time I see that film. A true classic.
Gimme a bucket!!
WTF is going on with this country? More of my money for wall street asshats and bankster fatcats?
I suspect the latest infusion will happen before BHO is sworn into office.
More blackhole $$$ to wall street asshats and bankster fatcats means less money for main street stimulus means less income tax revenue and multiples of them stimulus greenbacks in the economy....means...oh shit...let's just fully nationalize finance and banking and be done with it already.
how is WFC OT? this is a bank thread... yes not WFC, but at least its much closer than aapl.
now... I own 500 Wells preferred. not huge but of my preferred it is one of 2 that are above water. I am very tempted to sell. However collecting 8.65 percent throgh 2013 is compelling. Again not a lot of money but I hate to lose.
now overtime...DXO has become a fun trading tool.
Turn around in H2Y09
...
Record debt issuance by countries around the world
What falters first?
"No one pronounced deflation yet have they, by any official measure?"
Bernanke said it's not possible. Invest against him at your own peril.
Personally so far I've found him to be a great contrary indicator.
When I get a sell indicator (Bernanke saying the worst is past) I immediately cross reference against my secondary indicator (Cramer saying the bottom is in).
It's worked well for me so far.
Lucifer,
Both have Fista...but I had iTunes account probs on BF. Most likely the issue with that...but laptops sync fine...
I honestly think it's the fact that I have thumbs for fingers...
Nostrovia,
deflationary jane:
you posted that you were shorting the film industry. A friend on mine works in the biz (sound editing) in NYC and reports that it's f-ed up out there. Last year, a bunch of films had to cancel in the middle of production because financing ran out. Even though the majors use a same ass backwards distribution/licensing financing model, I think they'll be fine.
Interestingly, she said that the movie industry was a lot like the restaurant/bar industry. Lots of newly wealthy idiots (ahem investors) like to fund these films to appear important or to be around celebrities. Nothing like being the 20th executive producer on a B-rated movie starring Jessica Biel.
If everybody is hedged then we are ok
Didn't appl apply to be a bank holding company...I did. The FRB said a dump truck would be arriving early next week...go figure.
Nostrovia,
Anonymous writes:
Turn around in H2Y09
...
Record debt issuance by countries around the world
Record debt is necessary to fix the problem.
BOE's Goodhart gets it. Its going to take a masive fiscal response to address collapse in agregate demand and federal govt's don't rely on buyers of bonds to undertake the spending.
Goodhart Says 'Sack' DMO to Bolster U.K. Economy (Bloomberg) - Prime Minister Gordon Brown should "sack" the U.K. Debt Management Office and refrain from issuing government bonds as a way of bolstering the economy, former Bank of England policy maker Charles Goodhart said. "The one single thing that I would like to see, in a sense to get us out of the present problem, would be very simple," Goodhart told lawmakers on Parliament's Treasury Committee today. "It would be: sack the Debt Management Office and just not issue gilts for quite a long time so that the huge deficit simply comes into the system in the form of increases in liquidity and increases in the money supply."
Policy makers are seeking new tools to fight the recession as interest rates approach zero. Brown's government plans an unprecedented 146.4 bln pounds ($214.15 bln) of debt sales in the fiscal year ending March 31 to finance bank bailouts amid a decline in tax revenue.
"To keep the system sufficiently liquid and monetary growth sufficiently high, the government ought to be under- funding the deficit," Goodhart said. "When banks are having difficulty in lending to the private sector, there needs to be a much greater expansion of lending to the public sector."
Underfunding the gap would see the government selling fewer bonds than are necessary to pay for its budget deficit. That leaves more money in the hands of investors who may have spent them on gilts, keeping more money in the economy than would otherwise be the case. Brown forecasts a deficit of 118 bln pounds in the year through March 2010, or 8 % of gross domestic product, the most since modern records began in 1970.
"Under-funding the deficit would be far less damaging to the economy that to force some minimum of lending," Goodhart said yesterday.
Sinomania! writes:
OT - california state just announced that many filers want get their state refunds anytime soon - IOU
Sinomania! | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 7:25 pm | #
Here's what ticks me off.
These bozos are going the IOU route. However, if we decided to not file, file late, or just not pay what we owe, then look out!
What a double standard.
When will we wake up and stop allowing this nonsense to continue?
We continue to take it and what I want to know is why?
Comrade Misean is Dope,
Vista is even more problematic than Win XP media center (itunes and syncing). I have WinXP Pro SP3. No problems.
Dumb as a banker,
"Nothing like being the 20th executive producer on a B-rated movie starring Jessica Biel."
Where do I send my check?
Nostrovia,
o, fair enough. i'm short 15000 aapl. i'm highly interested , ok.
When I have good dope on BAC, I post it. And i have in the past, and most likely will in the future.
Unfortunatly, the bailout proceedings are privy to only the highest levels.
lucifer,
Well, then, I'll let you know how Win7 64 does in an hour or so.
Nostrovia,
Hmmmm...I'm still having issues with my iTouch...but I'm all thumbs with gadgets.
However, I suspect the sales of such gadgets is gonna slump hard.
Gotta admit it's pretty cool though...
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope | 01.14.09 - 7:46 pm | #
My 13 y.o. got one for Christmas and they are way super cool. He said pretty much every kid in his class has one.
Youths will be the LAST ones to feel this downturn.
When folks talk about "nationalizing" the banks, what do they mean and are they all talking about the same thing?
Good question. I don't think anyone wants a government to run a bank long-term, but nationalizing a bank can make for orderly disposition whether you're selling off parts, etc. Your points are well taken, though. Personally, I don't think bankruptcy is the answer, but it would be much better than what's being practiced now.
But when you talk about a Swedish-style nationalization scheme, the plan is always to sell off as much of the nationalized assets as quickly as possible. The idea is that with the government in control, it can sell enterprises that have value, recapitalize enterprises that would be saved by recapitalization, and kill off enterprises that cant be saved through any kind of feasible injection of capital. The goal isnt to have the government running all the banks permanently, its to create a situation where people know that the banks are sound. In particular, where they know that the banks that have been rescued have really been cured rather than just put on life support. At the moment, nobody knows which banks demise has really been avoided and which merely forestalled.
anon, that was a movie- get shorty
sg
Governments buying their own debt/printing money is extremely effective at reinflating. Trouble is no one has ever managed to quickly stop the pot from boiling over, always causes some kind of fire
That latter part of my comment is a passage from Yglesia's blog.
OC Dan-
I personally would like to see Arnie and all the other CA reps have their pay ceased until a budget is in place.
They get paid (by us) to do their job. Two of their major job responsibilities are to
A) work with others
B) get a budget in place
If I dont do 2 of my major job responsibilities, I get fired. If they dont, they start taking pay away from others?!
Bullshit. they need incentive. That incentive is a paycheck. Hold it from them till its passed. If they go 2 weeks w/o passing a budget - they lose the paycheck and it goes into the general fund. Continue till a balanced budget is passed. If it needs revision, start withholding pay again.
"Bank of America told the government in December that it was unlikely to complete its purchase of Merrill Lynch because of the losses, a person familiar with the matter said. The bank and the government have been speaking since then."
Where is that clown that said this was untrue??
Outsider,
Yeah? And most schools have wireless. And most school sys admins are stoopid (my good friend is IT Director at Fullerton CA school district...great stories he has).
So they're surfing the net in class...LOL.
Nostrovia,
Don't get me wrong. We're in the sticks. No wireless in schools here yet.
The wireless function works at school tho. And that's cool enough for them.
dafox
Pay them in State of California bonds
If there is no budget, coupons expire without redemption
Anonymous writes:
sg
Governments buying their own debt/printing money is extremely effective at reinflating. Trouble is no one has ever managed to quickly stop the pot from boiling over, always causes some kind of fire
I dont see an alternative. When all asset prices are falling all banks are bankrupt - its the nature of the system - and all households rertench. Its a devastating spiral and the fedarl gov't is the only entity that can support demand at this point. I would like to see a payroll tax holidy and a plan to get all non transportation energy from non oil sources in 4 years. It woul prevent drag from crude price surge when demand returns.
I mean - not the wireless function.
I better take my ADD meds.
The non-wireless function. You know. the music.
I am getting really old.
"No one pronounced deflation yet have they, by any official measure?"
i think the y-o-y cs-cpi was negative more than 3% for november... and we had at least a few zero trades on short t-bils a few weeks ago...
were you hoping for a parade, or some kind of anime-inspired tv special?
Steven writes:
Have inflation indexed loans ever been tried?
Inflation indexed mortgages are quite common in Mexico. Most of the loans underwritten by INFONAVIT , the government housing agency are done in UDI's (Unidades De Inversion) which are indexed to the inflation rate. You can also invest in UDI based savings vehicles. This was implemented as part of the recovery after the 1994 peso devaluation.
Outsider,
Me too.
Nostrovia,
Has anyone seen the guy with the "registered trade mark name"?? He was the one who said there were no discussions about BAC/Mer deal...he was dead wrong...
We continue to take it and what I want to know is why?
OCDan | 01.14.09 - 8:06 pm | #
Because we aren't organized.
Gestapo should be showing up at my door in 3... 2... 1...
BAC 9.80 Ah...headed to zero!
sg,
The Keynsian episode has passed. Good luck with that tho.
Nostrovia,
bgates: Aapl has an excellent opportunity but is blowing it. If only they'd match the market aggression they've shown on the consumer side. It's not as simplistic as I make it sound here but you get the idea.
The banks are looking at these bailouts as annuities. They will ask for more every 6 months and will act indignant when the cash flow stops.
What services does BoA provide that other responsibly run banks do not?
The simpletons at my credit union report they are in fantastic financial condition and are not getting any TARP money.
D Jane,
The financial fiacso is more like "Ripple" ..expanding, slow, solemn..
And the thought of a fiscal sharp, french heeled, DH "chick" making trades, and sipping old vine Vins...well just made my night!
AAPL is headed to zero too!
Just sayin'... there was a Dawg sighting in his old clothes. Couldn't quite refrain from a quick political jab.
Does anyone know what the total $ amount is in mortgage debt nationwide?
What about the total $ amount for consumer debt?
Just wondering what the difference would have been if we'd have zeroed out everyone's mortgage debt compared to what we're shelling out to save every quasi-financial institution in America.
Zeroing out mortgage debt would have definitely stimulated the economy. Wipe out debt and people will spend. They'll probably spend themselves right back into debt, but it's still just as worthy of a thought as gifting our tax dollars to banker bonuses, which is another temporary stop gap, until they spend it and need another fix.
MSFT cutting jobs
Microsoft considering job cuts: WSJ - MarketWatch
WHERE IS THE SEC?
Violations all over the place MSFT, BAC/MER, AAPL...
Sorry had to eat. Public and private banks can coexist, just like schools, hospitals, transportation, bottled and tap water, energy sources...
I said 20 % reserve, emphasis on safety. Low interest on savings. JPM is free to outbid for all the Wall Street genius and keep only 10% reserve, so they can make great profit, as always. (Once they've paid back TARP money) Maybe their 90 trillion will all be winning bets.
So, Lucifer, you'd let them all fail in the name of free enterprise? I would have. Too late.
lucifer@7:48
Thanks.....now I'll sleep well. (sarcasm at TARP level)
Cardboard box maker going under...where will the homeless bankers live?
Smurfit Says Bankruptcy Is Possible Amid Crunch - WSJ.com
sg,
I am actually with you though I prefer devaluation as it will act quicker and with less risk of uncontrollable inflation down the line.
Misean they ran out of helicopters already?
Dirk: Thanks. I believe we're at the event horizon where we must choose what we want to be as a nation. It's all about priorities and what is important in life. As past beliefs are shredded, it might be easier to pick a better path. Picking through the debris, kind of.
During an earlier thread that was moving the speed of light, the commentariat was discussing Americans' desire for a disaster. Perhaps they want something definitive so it's easier to choose the new direction.
As to the responses reg. CA tax IOUs, I couldn't agree more.
I would love to see their checks tied to performance. Crikey, get a balanced budget and pass it.
Second, as to not being organized. It truly is a shame. Could you imagine 2-3 million marching on Sacramento? Ahnold would be crapping his pants. He would have to call out the national guard or ask the chimp or Obama for help.
I don't always agree w/Denninger. but I will say this: he is spot on with calls for action.
Until we change our behavior, everything will continue to work against us.
These clowns that hold office just don't care, either at the state or fed level.
It truly is everyone for themself.
1 currency soon [yogi]
please scroll up to 752pm
I quote from the comment thread of Calculated Risk: Office Investment
the shadow writes:
citigroup is old news. keep an eye on toaster salesman lewis -- merrill deal can't complete until government undertakes substantial charity to countrywide
meanwhile pillow castle builder sir dimon is a knight without a horse and he now realizes the credit card delinquency army emerging from the forest. at least he got wamu inside the gates before the trouble started
the shadow | 01.10.09 - 2:42 am | #
I believe the unenthusiastic single response was:
"Huh? The deal is done, and it's pretty much settled that BAC's not on the hook for Countryfried's debt."
the shadow knows...
So, Lucifer, you'd let them all fail in the name of free enterprise? I would have. Too late.
1 currency soon [yogi] | 01.14.09 - 8:21 pm | #
Lucifer,
I disagree VEHEMENTLY with nationalizing the banks, or starting a national bank, etc. However, what you may not be quite ready to accept is that we are ALREADY nationalizing the banks. That is just one more reason TARP sucks.
1 Currency Soon is presenting a case for the logical completion of the path we are already on. Although, it does appear he supports Marx's idea...
RR
Dazed and confused: my new one world digital superbasket index currency accounts for inflation better than the CPI. Still in R+D though.
I should add that I don't believe the Atlanta FHLB had stopped paying its dividend at that point.
Bush will not be leaving DC fast enough.
Kind of like the guy who hurls after drinking one too many...only to learn that the same thing happened the weekend before. Sooner or later, you start feeling sorry for him...and wondering just what he was thinking.
Paradigm, I think the disaster route is easy to go because you realize that BS doesn't cut it in survival mode.
Having a iPhone or whether Jobs is on the job won't matter when trucks no longer brong food to the local WallyWorld!
Second, as to not being organized. It truly is a shame. Could you imagine 2-3 million marching on Sacramento?
Do that when you're ready for martial law.
Please. They're itching to impose it. And what exactly are we protesting against? Bankruptcies? Foreclosures? Economic mayhem and disaster?
Better than protesting is to come up with some solutions. Innovation.
Rioting is just so 60s.
P-Lost, if you have the time, watch the other segments, well worth your time.
Conjure,
As promised I crunched some numbers to check your clock. By my reckoning you're either one or two seconds slow - I lean toward two. If my calculations are right it's 23:59:58 now.
The two potential ticks remaining are January 23 and January 30.
January 23 is the day the nation realized Obama does not have a magic wand he can wave and make it all better. The euphoria of him taking his office will wear off - probably the day before - and we'll get a gut check. Why the 23d in particular, however? I expect to see a bank failure that day. I don't know which, and it really doesn't matter. It's the proof that'll demonstrate gravity still works. Yes, I expect at least one bank failure a week for the next few weeks.
January 30 is the release date for the advance GDP. As Dirk noted a few threads ago, it's likely to be pushing 5.5% in the hole. The census monthly retail numbers have been -2.5 to -2.7 for the entire quarter. RRE was plunging as steeply as it had at any other part of the year, and CRE found the cliff edge that quarter as well. There'll be a false improvement in the Im/Ex portion as the deficit isn't as bad - never mind that total exports have dropped almost 5% in the quarter. I'm not expert enough to know if the bailout will show in the Federal Government block; if so, that part will look decent, while if not Federal Government's performance will also be on the low side. Regardless of the fed numbers, however, the state numbers are going to be in definite decline as so many states cut waaay back on so many things in December (and to some extent in November).
I think, actually, that Dirk may be off - it may be as deep as 7% loss for 4Q08. Regardless, the fact it's a decline with zero wiggle room in the "adjustments" will send most of the US into shell shock. I figure the global pop will occur hard on the heels of that announcement.
So yes, I challenge your clock.
crispy,
"Smurfit-Stone Container Corp., one of the country's largest makers of cardboard boxes, has told lenders it could file for bankruptcy amid weakening sales and a cash crunch, people familiar with the matter said."
Those bastards! I was using them for my bando addition.
Nostrovia,
I should add that I don't believe the Atlanta FHLB had stopped paying its dividend at that point.
the shadow | 01.14.09 - 8:27 pm | #
Info greatly appreciated...
"If only they'd match the market aggression they've shown on the consumer side."
seems to me they're as dominant as ever vs windows in terms of entertainment production, especially at the mid-end. i think their main issue is just overvaluation as a stock (aside from the vacuum when the Dear Leader is gone).
" That incentive is a paycheck. "
Surely you jest. It is my impression that Arnie has a very, very large multiple of the gov salary in CA real estate. The market conditions surrounding those investments is infinitely more important to him than a few grand a week. Other sacto power players are a similar story on a smaller scale.
I'm drawing up plans for a chain of soup kitchens.
Saw it mock t. Without quality public sector work force, the US would be a jungle.
Where is the SEC?
They are slowly processing years old cases. Their funding has been gutted by Congress and as result they still, today, have a hiring freeze.
Broker | 01.14.09 - 7:23 pm | #
Don't recall that quote in my copy of Kapital--do you have a reference?
What services does BoA provide that other responsibly run banks do not?
lama | 01.14.09 - 8:18 pm | #
The ablility to BK a great deal of very wealthy people via CDS default.
Bush will not be leaving DC fast enough.
Tiberius | 01.14.09 - 8:27 pm | #
Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it's Bush's car on January 20!
January 23 is the day the nation realized Obama does not have a magic wand he can wave and make it all better.
I don't think mass delusion and denial ends that quickly.
Their funding has been gutted by Congress and as result they still, today, have a hiring freeze.
lama | 01.14.09 - 8:32 pm | #
Prosecutions are handled by the DOJ, I think. Apparently, there is a HUGE backlog of pending cases that prosecuters are holding on to until there is an administration that is willing to enforce laws on white collar crime.
just noticed the xlf actually spat out a nice big 18 cent divy a month ago. that's funny.
The mp organization has now moved to DEFCON 3.
The ablility to BK a great deal of very wealthy people via CDS default.
Blackhalo
Then how wealthy are they, really? The key to their wealth is not in their own hands.
Also, all companies who are insolvent should be forced into bankruptcy. All of you on the nationalization bandwagon are just wishing for money printing and abdication of all responsibility. Once the dollar is toast, a new currency will be very hard to institute and everyone will wish they had hard assets.
yogi,
I'm too small to warrant a helicopter, according to Benny boy. He wrote that he is being creative, and a dump truck was adequate for my needs.
Meh...
Nostrovia,
misean,
be sure to click on top 10 japanese models below your link..
wfc is far from my mind now...I just never new...
theme music
YouTube -
RE,
I can't ruin the mystery of it, but I will disclose that I use no inside information should the SEC get around to it in 7 years time.
"Once the dollar is toast, a new currency will be very hard to institute and everyone will wish they had hard assets."
you don't say! did you come up with this on your own?
DJ,
appl needs to release its OS for all PC platforms. I'd have the entire org on MAC OS in 6 mos.
Nostrovia,
mp, I would LOVE to know what your version of DEFCON 3 is.
I don't suppose you'd give any hints? Because frankly, I'm running a blank here. Out of ideas.
Broker writes:
"Unpaid debt will lead to bankruptcy of banks which have to be nationalised and State will have to take the road which will eventually lead to communism."
Karl Marx, Das Kapital 1867
Reader has finished searching the document. No matches were found.
I'll be listen when the shadow posts... Credibility is earned.
What is the procedure for Merrill Lynch stock?
Could it be relisted, or are they at the point where they are stuck in pink sheet purgatory until the US Treasury directs some fresh money towards the BofA beast?
lol @ toaster salesman Lewis, great stuff
Martial law. Oh well, then we will expose the man behind the curtain for all to see, once and for all.
Anyway, who said that 2-3 million would be rioting?
How about a march. If I recall, not everything in the 60s was about rioting.
As for what am I marching for...?
For one thing, the double standard crap in CA. You want my return, but you don't want to refund the excess you took becasue you spent it all.
Second, how about finally getting serious about balanced budgets in this state.
We all know, as it has been written, as soon as all these states get theirs from Obama, it will not see the light of day.
$50 bil for Cally will go to cover the 42 bil they are short for the next 18 months.
Then what?
Seen it, done it, sick of and tired of it!!!!!!!!
Yeah, I am pissed!
What's the difference between a bride on her wedding night and a report on the loss at a failing financial institution?
You can only count on one of them to say, "it was larger than expected."
(rim shot)
Thankyouverymuch! I'm here all week!
Check out The Big Picture for a video of Kohn's grilling. The TARP on view in its full glory.
cd,
Hmmmm...Miri Hanai....Likey...back atcha!
YouTube -
Nostrovia,
mp's definition of DEFCON
1- mp organization at economic war.
2- imminent risk in immediate future.
3- elevated risk in immediate future.
4- perceived risk exists in immediate future.
5- minimum economic risk in immediate future.
Reader has finished searching the document. No matches were found.
Yalt | 01.14.09 - 8:38 pm | #
Good catch, Yalt! I googled it, and you're right.
over at big picture (rithhotz)
outstanding short yt video
of congressman alan grayson fl 8th
sticking it to fed vice chair kohln
in the course of finance committe testimony
Nothing found for Blog 2009 01 12-trillion-slush-fund #comments
CR Companion author...sorry handle is not comming up in my pea brain right now...works under Win7 so far.
Nostrovia,
Stimulus Plan to Cost $850 Billion, Emanuel Says
Stimulus Plan to Cost $850 Billion, Emanuel Says (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economic stimulus package being negotiated in Congress will cost $850 billion and will include about $300 billion in tax cuts, said President-elect Barack Obama’s incoming chief of staff.
Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel spoke with reporters today at the Capitol in Washington, where lawmakers are rushing to work out details of the two-year plan. Obama and lawmakers had previously been discussing a package of about $775 billion. Earlier today, Democratic Senator Charles Schumer of New York said the price tag might rise to as much $850 billion.
LOL!!!
ANyone watching CNBC....some guy said CNBC and Jim Goldman are a joke and they were punked by AAPL!!
mp's definition of DEFCON
Hmmm. Nothing about a new electric system? Thinking a little more practical here.
I'm willing to personally save the global economic system, but only if Ben Bernanke and Henry Paulson perform a Karaoke duo version of Britney Spears "I'm not a girl, not yet a woman"
I think the offer is most fair
Misean at 7:54. (Inefficiency of a public bank)
You've obviously never paid your taxes online. And I assume you hire private letter carriers. I will be riding Amtrak to DC for the Franken brunch. Still best way to get from NYC to DC with fewer than 3 travelers.
The mp organization has now moved to DEFCON 3.
mp | 01.14.09 - 8:35 pm | #
mp, you are a master at creating interest in yourself. At what level were you before and what does this mean?
Interestingly, she said that the movie industry was a lot like the restaurant/bar industry. Lots of newly wealthy idiots (ahem investors) like to fund these films to appear important or to be around celebrities. Nothing like being the 20th executive producer on a B-rated movie starring Jessica Biel.
anonymous | 01.14.09 - 8:04 pm | #
Back in the 1990s, triads used to actually kidnap bankable Hong Kong film stars and ransom them in return for agreements to star in films bankrolled by them
the late Anita Mui actually had a bodyguard killed defending her from such an attempt, I think, and others deliberately stayed out of triad territory in Kowloon to avoid this sort of thing
also, Taiwanese director Hou Hsiao-Hsien, one of the great filmmakers of this era, also apparently relied to on triad funds from
Taiwan and Hong Kong to make classics like City of Sadness and The Puppetmaster
apparently, it was a badge of honor among triads to be able to say that you financed a winner of the Golden Lion at the Venice Film Festival
Ken Cooper?
The good news is the Swedish solution is approaching fast
The mp organization has now moved to DEFCON 3.
mp | 01.14.09 - 8:35 pm | #
The dawg pound commisary officer just bought more polished rice and the armorer has checked the expiration date on the ammo we don't own that doesn't fit in the gun(s) we don't own in case the government we can't trust cannot provide the civil peace they claim we won't finance with taxes we cannot afford.
test
Good catch, Yalt! I googled it, and you're right.
Outsider | 01.14.09 - 8:42 pm | #
It just didn't make any sense that it was Marx, quite aside from how conveniently current the concerns expressed were. Marx's prediction was that diminishing returns would force owners to immiserate their workers, which in turn would force the workers to revolt. He never foresaw management making a sort of peace with organized labor, or somebody like Ford increasing workers's pay to drive demand for his product. Questions of adequate aggregate demand weren't on his agenda (although there are some vague hints in this direction in Book 3) and as far as I know weren't seriously addressed by socialists until around 1900 or so.
Maybe if he'd lived another 75 years he'd have seen something like this coming, but he didn't.
yogi,
"You've obviously never paid your taxes online."
Miss my IRS line. Gov't loves to take money.
"And I assume you hire private letter carriers."
UPS, and FedEx for important sh*t.
"I will be riding Amtrak to DC for the Franken brunch. Still best way to get from NYC to DC with fewer than 3 travelers."
I'm not stoopid I take Amtrak...but it's subsidized not Fed owned.
Nostrovia,
depression now mainstream. NPR just brought up backyard chicken coop as survival strategy for formerly self employed.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 8:49 pm | #
PHEW. All's right with the world again.
1- mp organization at economic war.
2- imminent risk in immediate future.
3- elevated risk in immediate future.
4- perceived risk exists in immediate future.
5- minimum economic risk in immediate future.
mp | 01.14.09 - 8:42 pm | #
Nevermind. A homeland security threat level of "yellow" doesn't sound so menancing.
You think the Corleones are out of Hollywood?
Many believe Jimi Hendrix was murdered by his shady manager.
RockyR, I really don't care if you're interested. I thought I was sharing information, and am also writing for myself.
Since you're asking, we moved up from DEFCON 4 today.
Outsider, yes, we had another circuit installed last Thursday and it is working out beautifully.
Another $850 billion for the stimulus.
Didn't we just hand out more than $8 freakin' trillion in total bailouts in '08?
This is pure nonsense.
Another reason to march!
DAWG! your back, good to see ya, you were missed and there was quite a discusssion last nite or the night b4 on your disappearance.
RockyR, I really don't care if you're interested. I thought I was sharing information, and am also writing for myself.
mp | 01.14.09 - 8:51 pm | #
Sorry, that came out wrong. I was throwing some admiration your way.
Which blog has it posted on, and what is its handle?"
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
noob question: are there ANY banks considered safe? I was under the impression BAC and WFC were the safest.
dafox | 01.14.09 - 6:53 pm | #
Don't know if this was covered yet but they are all safe - as safe as the US gov't.
Outsider, yes, we had another circuit installed last Thursday and it is working out beautifully.
mp | 01.14.09 - 8:51 pm | #
I had seen that and wondered about it. We had several days w/no electricity here due to ice storms, and it was almost unbearable.
Is this new circuit dependent on the grid? Or is this some kind of off grid system?
you have nothing to fear from the banks, unless you need money, and then its OUR call.
Ken 'I'll do a deal at any price' Lewis
I think all the assclown upper execs need to get body tattooed with this
under new management (i.e the Fed)
under new management on Flickr - Photo Sharing!
BondsOfSteel
You can't disagree with a toaster sold, is a toaster sold
"mp, I would LOVE to know what your version of DEFCON 3 is."
Ha ha. Go watch Wally-e.
Henry Ford was convicted of violating labor laws when Ford was last car maker not to recognize collective bargaining. Specifically hiring intimidating goons.
The freeriding non-union auto worker in the red states will find life much more difficult without UAW as a human shield.
BAC has one of two check clearing house systems that exist in the US. They aren't going anywhere, which is not to say that common stock is staying around.
Also if you want to find out which banks world-wide will most likely make the cut when the ring-fence goes up google for the list of primary-dealers world-wide. Someone else had the list on here within the last few threads.
OCDan: I've picked through the debris of a life. The choices get easier and clarity returns. American living is distraction overload. Maybe that's what Americans are looking for.
Personally, I could do without the financial collapse but would welcome a social revolution.
Might be a tad late....
Chávez Reopens Oil Bids to West as Prices Plunge
President Hugo Chávez, buffeted by falling oil prices that threaten to damage his efforts to establish a Socialist-inspired state, is quietly courting Western oil companies once again.
Until recently, Mr. Chávez had pushed foreign oil companies here into a corner by nationalizing their oil fields, raiding their offices with tax authorities and imposing a series of royalties increases. ...
"Is this new circuit dependent on the grid? Or is this some kind of off grid system?"
It is a new 400-amp single phase line connected to an auto-disconnect. On the other side of the disconnect is a 40kw diesel generator.
We use machine tools here and 3-phase is not available, so we create our own using a converter housed with the generator.
If we go to DEFCON 2 we'll install a backup for the existing generator.
A tactful and sensitive move by the Czech government:
"A Prague-commissioned art installation now on display at the European Council building in Brussels wound up angering quite a few EU members...."
[snip]
"Prague selected Europe Without Borders as its motto in a bid to push for overcoming nationalism and separate states agendas within the European Union. The art installation was to be part of this theme of overcoming national stereotypes to better form a cohesive group. To this end, the 8-ton mosaic portrays Bulgaria as a Turkish toilet, Romania as a vampire theme park, France as an on strike sign, Poland as four Roman Catholic priests raising a gay pride flag Iwo Jima-style, Germany as a motorway network that resemble a swastika and so forth.
Formal complaints are already cropping up..."
Outsider - here is a link for you...
Google 'terra preta' - that is what you want to do to the crappy NH soil you put in your raised bed garden... from the National Geographic. I've read about it elsewhere - basically make charcoal from wood or yard waste and incorporate it into your soil. Dramatically improves fertility.
OT? You decide.
freeriding non-union auto worker
1 currency soon [yogi] | 01.14.09 - 8:59 pm | #
Tell me more about this free ride for those in right to work states?
It's getting close to war time. Any war will do. Rile up the populace, fire up those factories, call in Rosie the Riveter. Read Chris Hedges' "War is a Force that Gives Us Meaning," it will all become clear...
Any predictions from the tin-foils here?
ShortCourage | 01.14.09 - 7:01 pm | #
An observation that should be as good as a prediction: last year the equities market fell steep;y whenever the Treasury issued large numbers of bonds. The money to buy them had to come from somewhere. We had a respite the last six weeks. Now it is starting up again at a rate of about $30B /week as far as the eye can see.
Good news, bad news, earnings, irrelevant. It's all about liquidity, and there won't be any.
Aha, so generator it is.
Was wondering if there was any other/better off-grid system available. I guess not.
Weather Helm writes:
"TPC writes:
CFC was totally insolvent and B of A took them out at, what, $5? Merrill was totally insolvent and B of A offered, what, $29 for them?"
Well, from my understanding (which isn't much) Lewis to stiff the CFC creditors while buying their stock at $5.
Now, Lewis is stiffing the US Taxpayer for excess asset losses while buying ML.
Seems to me he's getting sweetheart deals. Definitely better than say, GoldenWest or Ditech. I think he should be indicted for fraud, but if he isn't so indicted, then the stockholders might make out well.
That is, might.
Weather Helm | 01.14.09 - 7:25 pm | #
BofA also vastly overpaid for U.S. Trust and Lasalle. Heck of a job!
Pissed Off In California writes:
Also if you want to find out which banks world-wide will most likely make the cut when the ring-fence goes up google for the list of primary-dealers world-wide. Someone else had the list on here within the last few threads.
You mean like Lehman? The Primary Dealer card was played once already
Dirk: I will. Public TV last night had a good documentary on the evolution of the financial crisis -- excellent for the uninitiated who are going right about now -- WTF???
To this end, the 8-ton mosaic portrays Bulgaria as a Turkish toilet, Romania as a vampire theme park, France as an on strike sign, Poland as four Roman Catholic priests raising a gay pride flag Iwo Jima-style, Germany as a motorway network that resemble a swastika and so forth..
sounds right on the money, Madoff investors should shoulder enough dough to get it plastered at the Smithsonian....it would be a nice feather.
1 currency soon [yogi] writes:
Henry Ford was convicted of violating labor laws when Ford was last car maker not to recognize collective bargaining. Specifically hiring intimidating goons.
I wasn't suggesting that Ford treated his workers well or had, personally, "made a sort of peace with organized labor," just that he realized that if workers were paid more they'd buy more of his cars. It was one of the necessary steps towards avoiding Marx's prediction.
"It's getting close to war time."
I hope you're wrong, but I wouldn't swear that you are.
OT? You decide.
dryfly | 01.14.09 - 9:02 pm | #
If it's between gardening and a study of Russian politics, I pick gardening.
I read a book once by a guy who claimed you can improve soil and make a garden out of anything - and to prove it he grew a garden in his gravel.
My problem is those darn granite boulders that the glaciers left behind. I can't get into raised beds - not for the size garden I want. If we're still cash-based in the spring, I'm hiring a back hoe.
"You mean like Lehman? The Primary Dealer card was played once already
Anonymous | 01.14.09 - 9:03 pm | # "
And that is why I SPECIFICALLY said "most likely" and not "will".
And I hope you also noticed my comment comment on common being zeroed out?
If the primary dealers world-wide go kaput you might as well go long rice and beans. No primary dealers equals no funding for US government.
Jeez, reading comprehension on this site sucks lately.
Well, from my understanding (which isn't much) Lewis to stiff the CFC creditors while buying their stock at $5.
Not guaranteeing Countryside's debt was just a way of retaining some negotiating power with the debtholders--make them incur legal expenses to go after payment and maybe get them to agree to a haircut. They'd never get away with a total default (unless BAC itself was insolvent) and I seriously doubt it was ever their intention. "Stiffing the CFC creditors" seems a bit harsh.
Pavel Chichikov,
No new war for now. War requires financing
First domestic governments will be unseated. Like Tiannamen square, but even the tank drivers are against the government
Then there will be a round of countries selectively invading for economic interests under the guise of protecting some people or corporation
Then the wingnuts will have had time to ferment, attract financial backers, and achieve critical momentum.
The entire war will probably be fought in Africa because no one with money cares about the continent.
dryfly - Thanks for superdirt too. Another link from you in my favorites to read more thoroughly when I have time.
I see a long queue of supplicants. A table and chair where sits a decider. One question, "What are your marketable and serviceable skills". Guard towers, weaponry, very intolerant of inconformity.
Three outcomes.
(1) comrade is vital to war industries--readily employable in the homeland.
(2) comrade is semi-skilled or unskilled but trainable. Conscript soldier or grunt in war-related industries
(3) "untouchables": unskilled and determined to be untrainable, or previously employed in state targeted parasite sectors i.e. title insurers, r.e. agents, insurance, financial, bloated bureaucracy, politics, bloggers. Disposable, or held hostage for tribute from loved ones...then disposed of.
Grim, very grim, and despairingly, inutterably grim.
Have a very nice day.
It's getting close to war time. Any war will do. Rile up the populace, fire up those factories, call in Rosie the Riveter. Read Chris Hedges' "War is a Force that Gives Us Meaning," it will all become clear...
mal | 01.14.09 - 9:02 pm | #
Keynes suggested that we bury mason jars of $ out in the desert and have compaines go "mine for them" Others have suggested digging holes in the desert and then filling them up. One could also make tons and tons of steel and then dump them into the Atlantic. All of these would produce a stimulus to the economy. War is actually very much like the last of these, and suffers from the drawback that sailors are often sitting on the tons and tons of steel that gets sent to the bottom of the Atlantic. War is simply massive fiscal stimulus, but very ineffective stimulus from a bang for the buck. However, it is easier to summon the political will to use lots and lots of stimulus, and the resulting debt, when the country is trying to make the world safe for democracy or something. I prefer more peacul and long term useful economic stimulus.
My problem is those darn granite boulders that the glaciers left behind. I can't get into raised beds - not for the size garden I want. If we're still cash-based in the spring, I'm hiring a back hoe.
Outsider | 01.14.09 - 9:06 pm | #
Watch the video - on the NG site.
A series of small intensively managed gardens will produce a LOT of produce... if you were able to transform the dirt you put into your beds via 'terra preta' methods you'd have outputs as good or better than Iowa & Illinois best farmland... the problem is making the terra preta - it is literally a lost art and people are trying to recreate the methods. That might be my project for next summer - my wife will shudder. There are a number of research articles & recipes for making terra preta on the web - I'm digging into them now in prep for next summer.
Rather than the public realizing that Obama doesn't have a magic wand to cure everything, I think there's another question. What surprise will Bush and Hank leave for the new admin? In this case, 'surprise' means something the public doesn't know yet. Cause you know they're going to roll a huge stinkin' turd under the door on their way out of town.
That might be my project for next summer - my wife will shudder.
Maybe you better not tell her about the human excrement ingredient.
1 Currency Soon:
A train and Al Franken? Watch out for Clarance Beeks in a Gorilla suit.
Pavel I think Kafka would have appreciated the sentiment. Artists and bureaucrats don't usually see eye to eye.
Dirk -- Furthermore war is 2 groups of financiers. The winner gets to wipe out the loser's debt holdings. They bear the cost of the winner's inflation
There is no one near power in the US that could conceive of negotiating debt writedowns
joke of the day :: What is the acronym of the group responsible for China's US$ holdings?
A :: SAFE
Find humus on land, use screed to winnow out gravel and stone. Add few scoops sand, few scoops perlite, few scoops peat moss. Add compost or manure. Test PH. Add gypsum or lime to neutral or slightly acidic. Mix well. Add a few red worms, and beneficial soil bacteria. Use 2X6's to create raised bed. Create trellis on far side from sun exposure with pvc pipe in U shape. Connect side rails to bed with screws. String 6 equally distant strands from bed wall to top pole stile. Tomatoes, beans, cucumbers, climbing plants.
Add plants, sunshine, water.
8'X 8' raised garden can easily feed 4. Easy to weed, easy to manage, no waste. Repeat yearly.
Plant 5 fruit trees. Currants, gooseberries, raspberries, blackberries, grapes.
More food than you could ever consume. Wild game browsers can supplement the diet of a sharpshooter. In urban settings, nightime neighbor looters may also be bagged and set aside for the stewpot. Hungry people are stupid people, or driven off the land.
"No new war for now. War requires financing..."
I acknowledge the point, but still...there is the war of miscalculation, of misunderstanding, the war that nobody wants, war as the product of an awful and inexorable logic, war by mistake, by stupidity, war of desperation and provocation, the war of unexpected consequences, war by lunacy, war as an escape of or supposed resolution of the pressures of internal contradiction, war as a gamble, and others, I guess.
IIRC, we've escaped the Big War by a hair's breadth at least twice since the early 80s. Once it was because the Soviets mis-read a NATO exercise, once because of a mistaken interpretation of a missile launch.
The fall of the SU presented its own dangers.
There is too much power out there for anyone to feel completely safe.
This economic crisis is one more factor of stress. We should all be moving quite calmly and deliberately, because the world is armed to the teeth.
Guiseppe de Egypto | 01.14.09 - 9:27 pm | #
Copied that. Thank you!
B-Ha;o:
Those darned right to work states: always sticking gubbmint's nose in the marketplace, restricting red-blooded mericans freedom of contract.
"Artists and bureaucrats don't usually see eye to eye. "
I once received a sizable government grant for writing. I traveled and saw an elaborate Hindu shrine in the attic of a Belgian farmhouse, a passenger shouting angrily at the driver of a Dublin bus (the bus was parked by the side of the Liffey and everyone, including the driver, was standing alongside of the bus, looking subdued), drunken teen-agers copulating on the lawn of the President's house in Reykjavik while the police stood there and laughed, and other edifying sights.
What a waste of money.
Maybe you better not tell her about the human excrement ingredient.
Outsider | 01.14.09 - 9:18 pm | #
I got excrement galore out there - I got dogs. Plus about five years worth of yard waste. I'm good to go.
The NLRB, for what's left of its relevance, has functioned as a reasonable compromise regulatory scheme which has been generally successful at avoiding ideological labeling.
DC Dawg, you forgot to add "newly single". Glad i made your night. Funny you mentioned it - the encore was US Blues into Ripple, so very appropriate. 12/31 was a show for the books >; )
Anon: I have some Turley Aida stashed away along with some Moore. Now to see if there is still a 96 Dickerson rolling here.
In counter to my proposed correction of Conjure's global depression clock, I do not expect a global collapse. No replacement of the dollar with gold or other commodity based currency. No separation of the US into several new nation-states. None of that. There are a great many more forks and options, but the ones that lead to total global collapse are less likely. I'll write in another post a defense of this position citing numbers and references, but the core is simple: excluding derivatives, US debts are less than US total worth, leaving us with a positive net worth. Yes, the derivatives bubble issue requires resolution, just as another century (in which commodities based currencies were the ONLY currencies) had to recover from the Tulip Bubble's effects.
I plan to expand this within the next couple of days, and try to post within a thread that at least nominally keeps it on topic.
You took the road less traveled. Every regular here knows the bailout they handed you has reaped dividends far beyond what TARP will bring.
Kirk Spencer writes:
In counter to my proposed correction of Conjure's global depression clock, I do not expect a global collapse. No replacement of the dollar with gold or other commodity based currency. No separation of the US into several new nation-states. None of that....
i dont expect global collapse
i dont expect my house to burn down
i dont expect to have a head on collision
i dont expect a sudden heart attack nor a diagnosis of cancer
i dont expect a violent home invasion
but, but
i have insurance (of a kind) against all of these remote but quite possible events
hi ho silver
i dont know why i cant get mock out of mok
How do you propose to enumerate total net worth? Level 3 is off a cliff. People thought their money market, munibond, Madoff money was level 1. Corpate earnings are at best a possibility. We don't really know how much was spent in Iraq. I could go on.
Letter deflation. (See "corpate earnings")
Oh yeah, that disturbing vertical FED balnce sheet chart.
sheesh but your name aint corpate
evidently i cant spell my own name!
terra preta
dryfly | 01.14.09 - 9:15 pm | #
Is that the dirt used by the native americans in the Amazon to create their mound gardens?
btw
did anybody catch the youtube questioning of
vice chair Koln that VIc referenced (before me, sorry vic, posts crossed each other)
here is the point
did kohln make a mistake or lie in his answers to congressman grayson???
he said that the fed had a couple trillion "lent" out
but over at big picture a month ago i thought i saw the number was much much larger by more than a factor of 2
(taf, tslf, pdcf and abc-xyz windows)
Again for chris sake, just NATIONALIZE the bank and be done with it. Reprivatize it later after it has been cured of its ills. Ditto with Citigroup.
Is that the dirt used by the native americans in the Amazon to create their mound gardens?
NorkaWest | 01.14.09 - 10:14 pm | #
Sort of a 'yes' - it is in the Amazon & locals still plant on it & the stuff is super fertile but they are ancient man made formations and nobody is quite sure how they made it.
See the NG article I linked to.
Make sure to see tonight's Back in Black on the Daily Show. Startling who all is asking for a bailout. I had not heard of the United States Postal Service being one.
Strange ain't it?
"We tortured" suspected hijack planner.
Perino: It was never White House policy to use torture.
What's the line now on whether Bush will beg his own pardon?
well bushboy said its not torture!! so case closed
)
"The Magic of Words"
Citigroup would easily be seen as bankrupt if its SIVs were brought back on the balance sheet and all of its assets marked to market. The same applies to dozens of other banks as well. The entire US banking system is insolvent.
The big question is: Is this "Bank of REAL America", or just "Bank of America". Coz, I sure don't want to save a bank that later turns out to be just another "BIG CITYbank"...
@Kirk Spencer
You left out the variable of 'geopolitics' leading to 'global collapse' as a Greek ship full of bunker busters and tons of toxic ammo is to be delivered to Israel plus the 1000 bunker busters they were sold already by the USA.
Sounds like a lotta firepower for Gaza or is the plan to take out Iran and maybe Lebanon & Syria? Better factor in this 'political factor' or variable into the 'global economy situation' to be smart.
Of course no discussion of these latest shipments of weapons in the media. How come?
Didn't they take their first round of unwanted TARP money and buy a Chinese bank?
But I'd always suspected that both the Merrill and Countrywide deals were orders, not choices, with an explicit promise they'd be made whole on any losses.
OCDan wrote: "These bozos [California] are going the IOU route. However, if we decided to not file, file late, or just not pay what we owe, then look out!"
So go to your employer, and have your state withholding reduced to zero. Then send California the IOU back, in place of that withholding. If you have to do quarterly estimated tax, send the IOU in place of that payment.
Not, mind you, your own IOU; the exact same piece of paper they sent you. You might want to endorse the back or something similar, as with a check.
If you really want to cause trouble, send the IOU in place of your Federal withholding or estimated payments. Though I'm not sure just where that trouble would fall.
TPC wrote: "The problem with creating new national banks is that we'd have a run on EVERY single existing bank. Who would keep their money at JPM when they could bank at Bank of US Government?"
Because JPM, as a private company, is naturally more efficient and better able to compete than any possible government entity. JPM will thus be able to pay you a better interest rate, provide more convenient services, and otherwise act to attract your business.
Were this not true, the entire basis of the libertarian philosophy would be called into doubt.