thoid

wait. which wave are we on?

Is "Doug Short" a screen name?

Blackhalo writes:
Mustard seeds, the bottom is in!

Don't you dare talk about mustard seeds

Mustard seeds that's is my mission, me and shit for brains Larry Kudlow

Maybe you saw this on ABC News

The failure of Citicorp would be absolutely catastrophic for the economy. We wouldn’t be surprised if the federal government stepped in within the next 24 or 48 hours and took control of Citigroup.

Now if he could just say what the recovery from this one will look like...
Bond Girl | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 9:16 pm | #

If ifs and buts was candy and nuts, every day would be Christmas.

Microsoft exploring work force reductions; jobs cuts could be announced next week

I'm still saying that it is possible for a 150 S&P, if I knew when, I wouldn't be talking to you people.

I think it is far more catastrophic to bail them out...let them faill
crispy&cole | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 9:22 pm | #

or if it not, no one of clear integrity has yet made a case for it.  Paulson, Bernankie Kashkari, Cox, CNBC, Buffet... who can trust these guys to be honest?

Businessweek November 2009 Magazine Cover:

"The Death of Mutual Funds?"

How much of the market is represented by individual investors (or their 401k plans)?

With no more rate cuts possible, I see a new acronym by the end of the week. Peak Acronyms?

""The fact of the matter is, this is not a downturn, this is a bit of a reset," he said. "Those are quite different and we're trying to really suss through what we think that means for us."

For some weeks now, the company has been considering whether it would need to cut a significant number of jobs, with some analysts predicting layoffs of anywhere from 10 percent to 17 percent of Microsoft's 95,000 employee workforce, though I am hearing the number could be significantly less than those figures.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that cuts could come as early as next week; the company is scheduled to deliver its earnings report on Thursday"

the current bear market graph is off by over 100 days... i keep pointing it out and it doesn't get changed.

Jus looks like the chartists are programing in a compaction / acceleration of GD days 300 and 360.

If fundamentals have been abandoned, and TA rules, then it should be fairly easy money to go short in this environment, barring game-changing policy measures.

Hoocoodanoe right now?

C

Anonymous writes:
the deal is there are only 251 trading days a year for the NYSE/Dow
Anonymous | 01.14.09 - 9:49 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
Chart clearly says "market days," not "calendar days."
Anonymous | 01.14.09 - 9:49 pm | #

Yup, that makes sense. I wasn't paying close enough attention. Thanks for pointing it out!

Is there an inning we are supposed to be in? If I go buy some nachos will I miss anything?

Anonymous writes:
\tJan 19 = Martin Luther King Jr day
Jan 20 = Innauguration
Anonymous | 01.14.09 - 9:52 pm | #
-----
Not to bust out the tinfoil hat too soon, but is anyone else nervous/curious over this upcoming weekend? 

No market action on Monday, new President on Tuesday seems like a great time to dump out toxic news, or is the common thought that Obama wants to go in with a bang and we get a 5-7 day rally?

Its funny...

the bailout circle continues.

CONTACT

It's spinning like a propeller. Ben's trying to help this economy take off, because his idea of a healthy economy is one that reaches the stratosphere on nothing but thin air and momentum. All those peasants dying in flyover state below us are not of our concern, and the airplane will never have to land. If it ever does, the groundlanders will eat the rich occupants.

it's less like baseball, more like watching a ticking time bomb. we're all standing around looking at the bundle of red sticks, tangle of multicolored wires, and brass clock... all of us grumble softly, impotently... a couple of assholes start cutting wires here and there... we grumble softly... they cut another wire... we grumble softly...

the clock keeps ticking

Bailout circle = circle jerk

Asia prety much red. India looks solidly positive.

I'm thinkin' the chart ought to have another line for the NASD crash all on its own. It would rival the 29er.

oh that was me reporting from portland. the CR firefox companion really runs weird on my mac.

economic forecast for development in the portland metro area is very grim
Anonymous | 01.14.09 - 10:18 pm |

sounds like you folks need a little bit of that good ole demolition stimuli up there. just start breaking shit, it'll help in the long run.

The NFL will get TARP...don't you worry about that one...
Comrade Misean is Dope | Homepage | 01.14.09 - 10:21 pm | #

Did you see this article about the ad the NFL refused to run in their Superbowl gameday program?

WHO are you doing after the game?   Life is short, have an affair!!

bgates,

"i do wonder what they would do without big 3 ad money"

Ever hear of the USFL?

United States Football League - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Nuff said.

Nostrovia,

Paradise Lost,

Hmmm...dutch rudder....bit rqacey for this blog.

Urban Dictionary: dutch rudder

Nostrovia,

Blackhalo,

Actually Dodger seats are fairly reasonable. Concessions are gonna sucketh however. No mo $8 beers and $6 Dodger dogs.

Nostrovia,

"Buffalo fills the seats because the tickets are like $5 and they just rely on revenue sharing"

Ermmm...When was the last time you were at a Bills game. People in Buffalo will pawn their grandmother's wedding ring for seats. I'm from there...

Go Bills....

Ah crap!

Nostrovia,

Madonna: new owner of the Yanks!

Madonna: new owner of the Yanks!
alba

at 50+ she might want a bit more, no?

Madonna already has A-Rod bowing to the Kabbalah Queen.

In sign of times, Google makes rare round of layoffs

100 from "Recruting Organisation"

In sign of times, Google makes rare round of layoffs

100 from "Recruting Organisation"
REBear | 01.14.09 - 10:42 pm | #

If the cash crunch continues - companies are going to really cut back on advertisements, not just pretend - we'll see more dead bodies at Google before this is over.

Oakland is still a major port for The Peoples Republic of Walmart.

in his testimony before the house finance committee

(scroll up for video)

Nothing found for Blog 2009 01 12-trillion-slush-fund #comments

fed vice chair kohln stated the fed had lent 2 trillion dollars to various institutions

im wondering if this was a lie or a mistake, (or more likely im a big dummy again)

exclusive of the money given to fannie and freddy (treasury)

has not the fed "loaned" more than 5 trillion by way of the various "windows" where toxic waste is exchanged for us securities (taf, tslf, pdcf, abc-xyz etc)

and those loans or excahanges would they not appear on the fed ballance sheet???

Calculating the Total Bailout Costs | The Big Picture

It is possible - although we will not know until after the fact - that we are in fact somewhere near Peak Nacho. callous | 01.14.09 - 10:15 pm | #

Oh here we go with Peak Nacho again.

Peak Nacho is a myth. There're plenty of nachos. They're still making nachos. Right next to potato chips in the snack aisle.

You peak nacho people. You drive me crazy.

Anonymous | 01.14.09 - 10:47 pm,

Spoil sport.

Nostrovia,

And don't forget the Brooklyn Nets!

I bought SSO today in anticipation of a bounce. It appears that dismal expectations have been factored into earnings season and we are seeing more media coverage of the thaw in the credit markets. Many argue that this crisis began with housing and it will end with housing---I am arguing that the positive news in the credit markets will cause a significant bounce.

We have heard different opinions on the growth (or lack of) in China. I am going on record as believing that China is going to continue to deliver growth and continue to consume more and more commodities. I have been bullish on natural gas and am officially admitting that I was wrong. It blew threw my stop of $21.75 today and I must admit I am still shocked (and at the time of this writing it is down further in overseas trade) Oil is up overseas and I think rising oil might be a catalyst that causes the market bounce. The dollar has been very (almost unrealistically) strong lately. I am still holding UDN in anticipation of the fall. Given the strength of the dollar today---you can see that oil is strong.

We confirmed our interview with John Williams of Shadow Stats for next Wednesday and will be taking viewer questions. Go to Stock Shotz and fill out the contact form to submit your question. John has suggested that we could have a hyperinflationary depression. He makes a compelling case for hyperinflation and I am anxious to speak with him as he has been sounding the alarm for quite a while now and I will ask him more specifics about his timetable as we have been in a disinflation or deflation period over the last few months. I will also ask him if the Fed has the tools to fight DEFLATION if we see price declines persist.
Stock Shotz

Pavel Chichikov | 01.14.09 - 10:51 pm | #

Interesting read, Pavel. I have relatives from the "old country".

I suppose in our culture, it could read: nationalization, unemployment, mortality.

Yes, but why hang onto the Raiders, Bills, Bengals, Titans, Bucs, Lions? Leeches!

"Automakers talk of stabilizing the price of gas" (with link)

kwh9 10:08 pm

usa should have slapped a big tax on crude 35 years ago

could have done it incrementally, one penny per month turning all revenues into alt energy and or 21st century transportation R&D, etc

was it carter or mondale wanted to do somethin like that, angd got slammed ffor bein such loosers

whos laughin now (oh yeah, the guy with the sandy real estate and all the big oil wells)

Nikkei doing a little cliff diving tonight.  This is starting to look very familiar...  Are we breaking back through 8,000 tomorrow?

Ben can certainly issue emergency rate cut to help with the Opex.. oh.. wait a minute..

The Buffalo Bills are not viable without revenue sharing. 8 home games x $6 million = $48 million in ticket revenue.
Payroll is $108.9 million in 2007
Anonymous | 01.14.09 - 10:47 pm | #

I don't know why you guys are ripping on the Bills - they'll do fine. What else is there to do in Buffalo? And don't rip on me, I used to live in Orchard Park BEFORE the stadium went in... nice town, or was.

You want to see a sad franchise look at the MN Vikings - playing in the damned dome - worst venue in sports ANYWHERE - you all in Cali will be building them a stadium somewhere within three years - it' should be shovel ready by then.

In sign of times, Google makes rare round of layoffs

I posted it before but I'll post it again. There were signs of declining traffic for Google two years ago...

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=internet_state_change

Geek sites?

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=techocolypse

Slashdot.org traffic is down over 70% according to Alexa. That's in the ballpark with the Baltic Dry Index.

Peak traffic.
.

Yep, x-rated fer sure. Should've goggled it right off.

Peak Nacho is a myth. There're plenty of nachos. They're still making nachos. Right next to potato chips in the snack aisle.

You peak nacho people. You drive me crazy.
Outsider | 01.14.09 - 10:48 pm | #

Sure if you want to believe Frito-Lay's numbers.  But I must point out that there are no new large nacho fields being discovered.  Sure there are smaller producers coming on line with chips, but that would only equal three months of US consumption.   And what about China?  When they decide to live like a first world country and eat nachos--look out!  And let's not even go into government cheese.

The farmers are ready. Once nachos become more expensive than ethanol, they'll switch.

Broward, I don't think using Alexa is indicative of traffic especially for slashdot. Most geeks would not touch Alexa with a 10 foot pole. Measuring Slashdot traffic with Alexa's number is akin to measuring number of people speeding using the number of speeding tickets issued.

since we're talking about cali -- anyone else going to the namm show this weekend?
sneering nihilist | 01.14.09 - 10:45 pm | #

I won't this time nut would you report on attendance and other impressions?  I'm certain the music business is not doing well in this environment.  I haven't upgraded my Cakewalk Sonar Producer this year either.

Talking about Namm...  From a synth icon:

Kojiki Reimei

i thought internet gambling was already legal

called day trading

"Internet gambling could become legal in the near future. "

interesting gambit, if it simultaneously legalized and brought onshore. not a bad idea.
bgates | 01.14.09 - 11:25 pm | #

And how long till that gets outsourced? No net gain there.

if i was in obamas position...about to be prez, id be crappin in my pants right now

the country (the world) is lookin like its about to do a humpty dumpty

Widespread Panic is not just the name of a southern 80's rock band. HK is pretty much caught up in it.

HSBC got beat up in London and it's getting beat up here, prompted by the realization (per Morgan Stanley's downgrade yesterday) that capital adequacy and earnings of even the stalwarts is questionable.

On the local exchange, HSBC was trading at about 150 three months ago-- for years many locals put their paychecks in the bank's stock rather than in low yielding savings accts. It is a very mainstream holding.

MS called for a 2009 share price of HK$52... it's at $66 now, down 6% on the day.

Oh, and the office manager just delivered a stack of (empty) red packets to my desk for use over the holidays.

Happy Year of the (gored) Ox.

Broward, slashdot is declining because digg came along with something better. Innovation is independent of any of your schizophrenic chart triangle trends

It's true that traffic shifts between sites and could be responsible for the decline in the sites I've posted.

However, the decline is across many popular sites and it shows up clearly in Netcraft's host growth.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=internet_inflection_point_microsoft

You've cited an exception which could be true but isn't.

Based on the graphs I've done over the past several years, it will be 18-24 months before the peak traffic effect seeps into general awareness. Netcraft shows the inflection point in Winter of 2007, so sometime in 2010 there should be a general acknowledgement.
.

enercheese,

"the damn cheese keeps pouring slower!"

You and your stoopid pour arguments. They're putting in more real cheese and less cheese product, so of course it pours slower, but the quality is way up. Once the new cheese pumps come online, the rate will increase.

Nostrovia,

Buyers for a Citigroup Fire Sale Have Probably Been Singed, Too - NY Times
Buyers for a Citigroup Fire Sale Have Probably Been Singed, Too
(Expect ...
failure/bailout/breakup/other MLK wkend.)

I predict nacho demand destruction now that New Yrs. resolutions are taking effect. That's gonna kill all nacho speculation. I say don't buy your nachos until maybe summer. By then we ought to be in a real nacho dip.

Also, don't forget potato chips are an alternative chip source. The higher prices of nachos are going to lead to more potato chip production, and then boom - where does that leave the nacho? Across the border where it came from.

Traffic's waaay down on eBay, too

Yes, I noticed that November.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=ebay_crash

Very surprising. I expected a traffic increase on Ebay as people liquidated stuff to raise cash.

I can't find the reference now but today I saw a claim that Citibank has 140K IT and operations people which includes 25,000 programmers.

Can you imagine that Citibank needs 25,000 programmers? A reduction to 1/5th of that would not only save money, it would have fewer inconsistencies and support issues.

Citi announced 52K layoffs but I expect to see double that.
.

POiC, pretty OK today on the HK haze front. Oct-Jan is the best time of year for wind and weather.

Whether the closure of mainland ftys is why is a can of political worms. HK creates a pretty steady state of pollution on its own, but when it gets really bad, it's usually coming from the north.

Maybe fore long we'll return to those clear days when Shenzhen was a vegetable patch.

Damn links.

Urban Dictionary: bernanke

Now try it.

that urban dictionary shit is hilarious

It bothers some of the kids that I know when I grin at some comment they've made.

And they've got no idea why I'm laughing in the midst of a Judd Apatow film. He apparently writes his scripts after spending 24 hours on the site.

Finally, in the movie "Dodgeball", one of the scenes occurs in a bar called the Dirty Sanchez. That's eye-opening...

Each business has been operating with its own back office,”

Thanks. That's the nature of commonality versus diversity. In an expanding credit cycle, diversity is a net benefit because it helps exploit marginal markets and prosper in multiple environments.

On the downside of the credit cycle, diversity becomes a net cost, so the trend reverses and moves toward greater conformity.
.

With 25,000 programmers, Citibank is almost a competitor to Microsoft. Maybe they can release their own Citi-Office suite.
.

.

I hear there's a run on imported cheese in China. Something about melamine. Myabe that's causing the peak?

Been a busy day. Niters all.

citi's proprietary ponzi software and its programmers are run out of India.

Tom Stone, thanks for the correction. Montclair; beautiful views from that hotel....still there?

speaking of the padres...you should see around petco park. the east village is really starting to take it in the rear. tons of canceled projects, and it seems like every commercial building in the area has a for sale sign on it. a new downtown (main)library was supposed to be built right up the street but the mayor recently said that it's a no go. (btw the pad's are for sale if anyone is interested:0.

jim3

the japanese waited over 10 years, to start "quantitative easing" in 2001. i don't think we can wait that long.

dif's between japan and the us
boj targeted bank liabilities, the fed is targeting bank assets.
hopefuly we get fiscal response via suspension of payroll tax not wasetful spending. put the tax back when agregate demand and asset prices stabalize. dont give gm money, give people their money and they will buy stuff - maybe even gm cars!

Well, the Fed is now also taking the 2005  bankruptcy act link serious.  I don't view it as the cause but definitely as something that made it worse.

U.S. mortgage meltdown linked to 2005 bankruptcy law

So say three researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, who argue that the legislation shifted risk from credit card lenders to mortgage lenders, helping trigger the surge in home foreclosures.Before Congress passed the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005, households could erase their unsecured debts by filing for Chapter 7 liquidation. That freed up income that distressed homeowners could use to make mortgage payments.The new law, however, forced better-off households seeking bankruptcy protection to file under Chapter 13. That chapter requires homeowners to continue paying their unsecured lenders.In other words, say the Fed researchers, cash-strapped homeowners who might have saved their homes by filing Chapter 7 are now much more likely to face foreclosure.

So if BoA goes down, is there a domino effect or bank run?

And frankly, couldn't there be a silent bank run now a la Wachovia?

I'm seriously back out for more canned food tomorrow as well as other non-perishables.

No way BofA is allowed to "go down" IMO. Too critical of an channel. Of course, I'm wrong a lot.

the next step if one of the big three banks collapses

is the USA nationalizes all (ALL) the banks

because otherwise, the sheeple will run screaming in the streets with their hair on fire

Commodities investors hit as oil benchmarks diverge
function floatContent(){var paraNum = "3" paraNum = paraNum - 1;var tb = document.getElementById('floating-con');var nl = document.getElementById('floating-target');if(tb.getElementsByTagName("div").length> 0){if (nl.getElementsByTagName("p").length>= paraNum){nl.insertBefore(tb,nl.getElementsByTagName("p")[paraNum]);}else {if (nl.getElementsByTagName("p").length == 3){nl.insertBefore(tb,nl.getElementsByTagName("p")[2]);}else {nl.insertBefore(tb,nl.getElementsByTagName("p")[0]);}}}}The price difference between the world's two main oil price benchmarks – West Texas Intermediate and Brent – widened on Wednesday to a record as inventories at the delivery point of WTI, in Cushing, Oklahoma, surged to an all-time high. ICE February Brent traded at a record intra-day premium of $8.46 a barrel over Nymex February WTI, well above a previous peak of $6.60 a barrel set in May 2007.

i dont think the big three will "fail" or go into receivership etc...

i was thinking if the sheeple start to drain funds like they did to WAMU

remember...16 billion is less than 2 weeks i seem to recall

nobody in a position to do so, is gonna pull the plug on any of these huge banks

the fed will just step in and effectively underwrite, support, backstop every dime every where to stem the bleeding

I'm back with my nachos. What did I miss?