M & I is one of only 2 banks in WI that are getting TARP $, the other is Associated.
I had a feeling that M & I was rotting from within, despite it's recently increased insistence that it's "strong" - hmm, they were a strong bank for real for years, and never had a need to publicly point that out...
OT: Update for those of you who remember or care. Apt just called and granted 20% off of "market" lease price for renewal. I guess they did understand the meaning of "deflation", afterall.
Yeah, I don't know who would be crazy enough to write options these days. Opex jam ain't what it used to be. Ben can't even issue emergency rate cuts now.
Regions Financial Corp. down BIG today; guess they have some explaining to do???
Federal regulators are asking financial institutions to monitor their use of government money received under the $700 billion rescue plan and other support.
Banks and other financial institutions should track how the federal money or guarantees they received helped them boost "prudent lending" and efforts to help at-risk borrowers avoid foreclosures, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said Monday in a directive issued to the roughly 5,100 state-chartered banks and savings and loans for which it is the primary regulator.
"Banks are expected to document how they are continuing to meet the credit needs of creditworthy borrowers," the directive says. "The FDIC expects that ... (institutions) will deploy funding received from these federal programs to prudently support credit needs in their market and strengthen bank capital."
Among the banks that have received the most funds from the various federal programs are Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. Scores of smaller banks also have been recipients, including Zions Bancorp, Regions Financial Corp. and Western Alliance Bancorp.
The Midwest & Mid-Atlantic regionals also got into the mfg PE action - I know a number of mid-sized mfg companies supplying the automotive sector that were taken over via PEs levered up with help from the regionals [and folks like GE Capital] - that was 3-5 years ago at peak prices. The PEs have bled off everything they could but in many cases the leverage is still there. The regionals are going to bleed red ink from this folly as well as from their commercial RE and C&D loans. It's all going to suck.
@Nor Car - My opinion only - WFC is better than C or BAC or anything else trading under $10. But it's not clear that any of the big banks is going to survive to the end of this, and they bit off some bad fruit when they absorbed Wachovia.
Most of the regionals/locals are down today. We are getting closer to the time when some of the smaller banks are worth a speculation. Maybe not now, but soon. You need to know your bank, though. I prefer ones with a long reputation of conservative management, preferably where I know someone in management who will tell me the truth. Everybody has a situation like that in their hometown, and once a decade or so it's an easy way to make money.
Anyone else seeing oversold metrics and wondering if a short-term bottom is coming up soon? I'm not an expert at that (having learned the hard way in October, eh?) and looking for others' opinions. If not bottom today, how much further down?
Marshall & Ilsley Corp said it was slashing its dividend...
Huh? The dividend is sacrosanct. If they ever hope to be a big bank they need to understand that means never having to behave rationally. Look here Marshall & Ilsley, you were given TARP money and now you say you are not spending it on dividends? What's next executive perks? Either get with the program or we'll find someone who will.
M & I is actually cutting executive bonuses and freezing salaries for executives. Hmm, why can't AIG do the same? Or any bank that maybe deserves to ultimately remain in business and is getting TARP money?
These articles were penned almost a year ago, back when Paulson was saying the worst is behind us. If I could see it in such detail, why couldn't they?
*
90 billion on highway construction, energy-efficiency, clean water and transit projects.
*
$54 billion on boosting renewable energy production and renovating public buildings.
*
$141.6 billion on repairing and modernizing schools, as well as fiscal relief to states to prevent cutbacks in services.
*
$102 billion on unemployment benefits, healthcare retention and increasing food stamp benefits.
*
$91 billion in relief to states, including a temporary increase in the Medicare matching rate.
The $275 billion in tax provisions include:
*
A $500-per-worker and $1,000-per-family tax credit.
*
Eliminating a requirement to repay a $7,500 tax credit for homes purchased after 2008 and before July 2009.
*
A $2,500 tax credit for the first four years of higher education expenses.
*
Business provisions including bonus depreciation, a five-year carryback of net operating losses and increased small business expensing.
My feeling is the liquidity value is overcoming the storage costs. Ministry of Truth | 01.15.09 - 12:53 pm | #
Where do you put it? A rural couple in their mid-to -late 40s near me had about $150K in cash and some PM stolen from their home when they panicked over the possible failure of their bank... yes they had a safe and guns and a security system... and supposedly kept quiet about it... but somehow the word got out and you can't watch something 100% of the time. It was almost all their savings.
The only good thing you can say is their home was paid for, they have no debt and they have time to start over.
M & I is actually cutting executive bonuses and freezing salaries for executives. Hmm, why can't AIG do the same? Or any bank that maybe deserves to ultimately remain in business and is getting TARP money? foilhatgrrl | 01.15.09 - 12:57 pm | #
If getting TARP everyone at the institution ought to be on the GS pay scale.
WFC is down nearly 15% today. Was additional information released today that indicates greater losses on the Wachovia transaction?"
Here's my question: after watching acquisition after acquisition blow up the banks' face would WFC, etc. choose to take these turd banks? Is it like when women date a bad boy thinking they're the one that can turn them around?
Unfortunately for me, I discovered CR late into the current malaise and still have exposure to equities via 401K and other qualified savings plans. Took a 30% hit before transitioning about 40% of the remainder into MM and bond funds, balance is in FLPSX and similar funds. I do not wish to take another 30% haircut, but 401K non-equity-based options are thin (not self-directed) and holding cash inside isn't an option - also, have a family full of financial planners who preach dollar-cost-averaging incessantly, and they're still bleating the mantra. won't be tapping these dollars for 20+ years, so immediate needs are not a factor.
collectively the posters here seem pretty astute, especially in comparison with the CFPs and CFCs in the family - what to do?
A $2,500 tax credit for the first four years of higher education expenses. REBear | 01.15.09 - 12:59 pm | #
Mark this post. This will not survive the negotiations and reconciliation. Why? Two reasons. First, that directly cuts my tax bill and the law of "blood from stones" means I will get squeezed. Second is more subtle and less paranoid. As a perverse incentive this would place a greater burden on states that subsidize higher education.
They survived Oct-Nov, but only lost their 401(k). For the folks who still had their homes, they still ate. They panicked during the financial collapse.
They should be much more worried about the impending personal economic collapse - no job, no prospect, no income, no chance. They got scared at the wrong collapse. They think they can ride this one out.
This is an excellent observation.
I am only hearing very few friends talk about impending job losses or financial insecurity (in Silicon Valley and Los Angeles).
One friend who recently lost his high tech job has two good offers on the table already.
change we can believe in- a tax evading Treasury Secretary.
If we all stop paying our taxes because the tax code is too complicated would that excuse our non payment because so many people do it?
He got a quarterly check from the IMF to reimburse him for their share of the of the self employment taxes that he was paying. Not clear how he could be confused. Then again he was President of the NY Fed while all the shit was going on. So perhaps confusion is a permanent state with him.
I guess all we have going is a change in shift amongst the kleptocrats- step aside Republican thieves time make room for Democratic thieves.
If you are taking a sizeable amount of cash out of a bank, consider driving to a branch in a location fairly distant from your home. Say 30-50 miles or so...then take a circuitous route back home.
That should minimize the local branch gossip that might tip off potential robbers.
foilhatgrrl writes:
M & I is actually cutting executive bonuses and freezing salaries for executives. Hmm, why can't AIG do the same? Or any bank that maybe deserves to ultimately remain in business and is getting TARP money?
foilhatgrrl | 01.15.09 - 12:57 pm | #
People in the Midwest are actually still decent for the most part. At least try to do the right thing. East coast, not so much. I'm allowed to assert such things because I've spent most of my life on the East Coast (now in Minny).
In same boat re having money in program with few options (thru wife's employer).
Best you can do is to either find the best proxy for alternatives (i.e. GNMA for treasuries, etc.) or give serious consideration to just withdrawing and taking the hit.
A rural couple in their mid-to -late 40s near me had about $150K in cash and some PM stolen from their home when they panicked over the possible failure of their bank
Truly tragic. How does word like that get around? Would you tell ANYONE?
Maybe I'm just new englandy reserved, but I wouldn't even let my dog in on that one.
Where do you put it? A rural couple in their mid-to -late 40s near me had about $150K in cash and some PM stolen from their home when they panicked over the possible failure of their bank... yes they had a safe and guns and a security system... and supposedly kept quiet about it... but somehow the word got out and you can't watch something 100% of the time. It was almost all their savings.
The only good thing you can say is their home was paid for, they have no debt and they have time to start over.
@DJH - Try going to Yahoo, charting up the DOW (they have the data back to 1928), and look at great depression. You have to be comfortable playing through something like that, maybe a little less bad, maybe a bit worse. Then look at the Nikkei 225 (click on the Asia tab from the main page, then the Nikkei 225 link, and chart their bubble-implosion). Dollar-cost averaging is a decent strategy if you can go through the entire down leg, and if you're certain there's an eventual upside on the far side that's within your time horizon. But you do have to watch all your contributions shrink until the bottom is finally in...
"Business provisions including bonus depreciation, a five-year carryback of net operating losses and increased small business expensing."
This one has no dollar limit? REBear | 01.15.09 - 1:10 pm | #
Noticed that did you? Talk about double standards. Thay want lossbacks? Fine, they come in the same package as clawbacks. Buy one and get the other for free. On the large stage the same thing is happening with the banks. Even if they ever pay back the TARP funds it will be less than their cummulative and retroactive and carried forward tax benefits.
If 350B of the TARP was spent previously and the assclowns in DC haven't released the other 350B requested by GWB, where is the money coming from for these funds (besides Sylvester Bernanke's printing press)??????
I do not wish to take another 30% haircut, but 401K non-equity-based options are thin (not self-directed) and holding cash inside isn't an option - also, have a family full of financial planners .....still bleating the mantra. won't be tapping these dollars for 20+ years, so immediate needs are not a factor. DJH | 01.15.09 - 1:05 pm | #
Good luck; You might see another 15-20% before a real turnaround. If the DOW hits 6500, I plan to start dollar averaging back in, but I think we're 3-6 mos. away from a turnaround. Or not...... We'll see-
Best you can do is to either find the best proxy for alternatives (i.e. GNMA for treasuries, etc.) or give serious consideration to just withdrawing and taking the hit.
Due Diligence.
homedad43
Thanks for the input, and I hear you on the withdrawal option, but that's another 30+% hit I don't want to take (10% penalty and 20+% in taxes). I wish ponies were an option in our qualified plans...
James - the news was posted in a comment thread last night. I forget what it was, but when I read it, I let out a big RUT RO! I'll see if I can find it.
time to start another leg down - we need to go convincingly below 8000 -- after all the 2nd tranche of TARP being voted on this afternoon - need to motivate those Senators to do the right thing)
I know of several looking to move out of the big 4 who can't find jobs. Firms are fearful about overhiring. What I hear is that work might not be sharply down, maybe slightly due to clients that have already closed. But getting paid is in doubt. Less hiring coming out of school and less experienced hiring.
Hey, not to go tin foil and all, but does anyone else here think that the news coming out of the banking sector is intentionally designed so that it looks especially needy just as TARP PT.2 gets ready to find something to paper over?
By GS I hope you mean the Federal Govt pay scale, not Goldman Sachs pay scale. Dirk | Homepage | 01.15.09 - 1:15 pm | #
GS? Surely you jest. E, W and O scales with commensurate pay and obligations. IIRC O-9s with a half century of service get less than $200k/yr. Ever met a real GS-15? I swear they either need translators or at least handlers in social situations.
I know of several looking to move out of the big 4 who can't find jobs. Firms are fearful about overhiring. What I hear is that work might not be sharply down, maybe slightly due to clients that have already closed. But getting paid is in doubt. Less hiring coming out of school and less experienced hiring.
God Shammgod
sorry, my response was "tongue-in-cheek" - I'm a tax accountant on the industry side, and everyone is watching their back at this point.
WFC bounced like a super ball when DJ hit 8000. Hope you werent like the little kid who throws it hard against the ground and forgets to move his head, only to have said superball shoot back up into his eye.
Geoff+save+rent=unamericanfool writes:
Hey, not to go tin foil and all, but does anyone else here think that the news coming out of the banking sector is intentionally designed so that it looks especially needy just as TARP PT.2 gets ready to find something to paper over?
Geoff+save+rent=unamericanfool | 01.15.09 - 1:20 pm | #
I had the same thought. It does seem strangely timed once again, does it not? Seems like they're looking to whip up fear again to ram through the rest of the TARP in Congress. The fleecing of the U.S. continues.
If your 401k's allow loans, find out what the interest rate is and crunch the numbers against what you could earn outside the 401k (especially if you can pay off other, higher-interest loans).
In this interest-rate environment, your 401k loan at somewhere between 5 and 10% is probably better than any other fixed income vehicle available in the 401k, plus since you are paying yourself back you have essentially eliminated credit risk. The only downside is if you tie up the money and then lose your job, triggering repayment.
For people saying "I wish I could do xyz in the 401k," this offers a way to get the cash out of the 401k so that you can do xyz in your retail account. Of course, you have to be sure that xyz is really going to make you money...
Truly tragic. How does word like that get around? Would you tell ANYONE?
Maybe I'm just new englandy reserved, but I wouldn't even let my dog in on that one. Outsider | 01.15.09 - 1:12 pm | #
See God Shammgod's take - from what my source suggested the police are searching that avenue - inside info from an employee at the bank but nothing yet.
The Bad News Bears writes:
Where do you put it? A rural couple in their mid-to -late 40s near me had about $150K in cash and some PM stolen from their home when they panicked ov...
It will turn out to be "friends" of the family. Probably live within 10 miles of them.
sorry, my response was "tongue-in-cheek" - I'm a tax accountant on the industry side, and everyone is watching their back at this point. \t DJH DJH | 01.15.09 - 1:22 pm | #
Hey, not to go tin foil and all, but does anyone else here think that the news coming out of the banking sector is intentionally designed so that it looks especially needy just as TARP PT.2 gets ready to find something to paper over?
You think? I feel pretty confident that this is, indeed, the case.
For instance, why else have BofA show it's need for TARP now as opposed to last month when they first came to Treasury? it makes no sense.
From the street.com "one analyst at Atlantic Equities thinks so. He also believes that the large US bank could need to raise up to $10 billion following its acquisition of Wachovia.
Richard Straite downgraded Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) from Neutral to Underweight this morning, citing, in addition to the possible capital raise and dividend cut, an expected disappointing Q4 earnings announcement, which will be out on Wednesday, January 28."
Two things are for sure, the Wachovia deal will produce a huge tax gain for WFC and the deal will produce huge loan portfolio losses, which one is greater, not sure.
Call your administrator who manages the plan and ask them to add other options.
I was VERY unhappy with my options about 2-3 years ago so I went to my HR person and said "Hey, I want a Treasury option in my 401k". She gave me the number of the 401k guy, who set it up.
Just a month or two later we had a Treasury option in there. That's where my 401k sits. (yep, it's all treasuries, no ginnies or fannies)
... from what my source suggested the police are searching that avenue - inside info from an employee at the bank but nothing yet.
\t dryfly dryfly | 01.15.09 - 1:23 pm | #
That has to be the case, but find the right one/ones is probably a long shot. Recovery even more so. I'm guessing that it takes some skill to go in with a safe and security system and all that.
now if I could only locate that conjure clock... DJH | 01.15.09 - 1:20 pm | #
Why? Do you think it's like a falling elevator and you're going to jump up at the last second to avoid getting crushed? I don't think that's going to work. Or is it just for the relief when it finally hits midnight and we can start hoping for the dawn?
According to Edgar Sentell, a retired senior vice-president and general counsel of Southern Farm Bureau Life Insurance Company, almost all the states recognize the presumption of death, by statute or judicial recognition of the common law rule. However, some states have amended their statutes to lower the seven-year period to only five consecutive years missing, and some, such as Minnesota and Georgia, have reduced the period even shorter to four years.
from the last thread:
Forget Kristina, he's cute >; )
Lovely ceremony, quiet and classy and girl after my own heart. And you're from STL!
Wash U is a great school. Love love love the area. The former Mr. Jane is still there. We had a place right off the west side of the park, walked to campus everyday. I miss it terribly.
Two things are for sure, the Wachovia deal will produce a huge tax gain for WFC and the deal will produce huge loan portfolio losses, which one is greater, not sure.
James | 01.15.09 - 1:32 pm | #
No one ever went broke paying taxes. But plenty have gone broke trying to avoid paying taxes.
I just got clipped. RockyR | 01.15.09 - 12:40 pm | # Are you using CR Companion, and if so, have you updated to 1.07? I put in an ostensible (I can't repro it, so can't confirm) fix for this yesterday.
dj, I thought you were a ST Louis girl. We live in Florida now, but all of hubs family is St. Louis. I actually was accepted to Wash U with scholarships and had to turn it down after my Dad attempted suicide back in the early 90's. Quit school and never went back...long story. Wash U is a GREAT school. Wish I had gone.
"The market is forecasting a deflation scenario for years," said Tim Wilhide, co-manager of the $831-million Hartford Inflation Plus Fund. "Nothing on the horizon says right now that the economy is turning around."
The gap between yields on regular five-year notes and five-year TIPS is negative 0.33 percentage point, suggesting consumer prices will decline 0.33% on average over the next five years. That difference is known as the break-even rate and is considered a signal for what investors expect inflation to be over the life of the debt.
v
"Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of a day; but a series of oppressions, begun at a distinguished period and pursued unalterably through every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematic plan of reducing [a people] to slavery." --Thomas Jefferson: Rights of British America, 1774
Obushma plan; to continue the fraud with taxcheat bubbleman Geithner.
Deflation currently poses the greatest risk to the world economy, and in particular, the eurozone, the UN trade and development body's chief economist said on Thursday.
"The big danger is not that we have a global recession, the bigger danger is that we are running into a severe situation of deflation," said UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) chief economist Heiner Flassbeck.
The entire eurozone is "in danger of running into deflation," he added, saying that only massive public investments could combat these risks.
hanks for the input, and I hear you on the withdrawal option, but that's another 30+% hit I don't want to take (10% penalty and 20+% in taxes). I wish ponies were an option in our qualified plans...
DJH | 01.15.09 - 1:14 pm | #
If you want to move out of your existing fund (and your fund allows it), you could transfer into an IRS at Fidelity, and then you'd have lots of choices, though nothing is particularly good at the moment (5% is a really good ROR today). If you loose you job, it's all that much easier, though not necessarily all that pleasant.
As youve said many times, the US government is printing a lot of money right now, when do you think inflation will come around and bite us?
Rogers: Well there is inflation now in many things. Theres temporary deflation in raw material prices and in some property. But throughout history, whenever youve had gigantic printing of money and spending of borrowed money, it has always led to higher prices. Unless something is dramatic, its going to happen again. When? I dont know. Its already happening in some things. I dont know if youve bought any sugar recently or some other things, prices are up and that will continue and it will get worse. Exclusive Interview with Jim Rogers: Inflation Is Coming -- Seeking Alpha
ah Ca native but apparently I don't have the CA native 'tude >; )
We moved, loved the place, the former hubby has a great job at WU and place, I came back to CA before I lost my time in service at UCD... it all had a very lifetime channel feel though it was extemely amicable. (please shoot me now)
We have similar stories. My first years were at UCI full ride scholarship, accepted to Stan but couldn't afford it after my dad died (thank you Reagan and the 80s recession). If I had stayed in, I'd be Dr. Jane ob/gyn now and playing the greatful dead in the delivery room sighs.
Break-even would be about 22 to 23 cents a pound, he said. Prices in recent weeks, according to Legendre, have been in the 19-20 cents a pound range.
"That's just unrealistic," Legendre said, noting that for some farmers, this is on top of production losses and high fertilizer and diesel costs paid before the price of those inputs began to fall. He said sugar prices haven't budged much over the last 15 to 20 years.
Simon said carry-over debt from the 2008 crop could make it tough for some farmers to get financing for their next crop, an issue that could affect acreage. If farmers can't get the necessary funding, it could mean they plant less acreage or don't plant at all.
Wallace Ellender III, who farms near Bourg, about 25 miles north of where Gustav made landfall, said he met with his banker last week and is trying to get together financing. He's not sure whether he'll be able to do it.
Farmer are planting less ... may be wise to think about food in 2009!
Wiarton Willie Wiarton Willie - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Wiarton Willie is a famous Canadian groundhog who lives in the community of Wiarton in Bruce County, Ontario. Every February 2, on Groundhog Day, Willie takes part in the local Wiarton Willie Festival. His role is to predict whether there will be an early spring. Although the original Wiarton Willie died in 1999, the Wiarton groundhog day celebrations continue each year with the original Willie's successors, referred to as "Wee Willie."
2.5? Wow. Could be a win-win compared to the rates on your 401k money market and the cost of credit outside your 401k. OTOH, I am guessing that most folks here don't carry a lot of credit card debt.
MI is actually one of the better run banks. They have been working aggressively to write down loans and get REO off the balance sheet. Other banks are pretending that thing will improve soon.
Mere anecdotes.
But plural of anecdotes is statistic.
When is sun trust going to blow up?
Wow, June put options on KRE are mighty expensive...
I weep for my SRS calls that I sold yesterday.
Asun. I had 40 contracts of SRS $55 Jan Calls. I sold them on Monday for a small profit.
That was about $60k sacrificed. Right there...
I WEEP for those puts.
M & I is one of only 2 banks in WI that are getting TARP $, the other is Associated.
I had a feeling that M & I was rotting from within, despite it's recently increased insistence that it's "strong" - hmm, they were a strong bank for real for years, and never had a need to publicly point that out...
But those were covered calls, right?!?
Seriously, that's my bank.
Other than watch the FDIC deposit limit, any recommendations?
OT: Update for those of you who remember or care. Apt just called and granted 20% off of "market" lease price for renewal. I guess they did understand the meaning of "deflation", afterall.
Market: Dallas
Nope. Naked.
scratch that, misunderstood, thought you were writing them
Other than watch the FDIC deposit limit, any recommendations?
Dude, that's my bank | 01.15.09 - 12:39 pm | #
Withd
Dude -
Diversify into a credit union.
Other than watch the FDIC deposit limit, any recommendations?
Dude, that's my bank | 01.15.09 - 12:39 pm | #
WITHDRAW...
I just got clipped.
Ya, long options. Not writing. I'm not that crazy.
Hey, wait a minute!!!!
I found the light!
Home Depot is UP!!!
there's HopeNOW!
I remember going into M/I a few years back, and they had SBX and Krispy Kreme donuts by the front door.
I am not sure what triggered that anecdote recollection.
Earnings are simply a thing of the past!
YouTube - austin powers (part 2) frisky
RockyR:
Thought TX was immune ;p Now everyone's going to want that 20%. Deflation sucks.
Will giving a free Captain Morgan coupon to liver disease patients cure cirrhosis? Bush/Frank/Dodd/Pelosi say "yes!".
Yeah, I don't know who would be crazy enough to write options these days. Opex jam ain't what it used to be. Ben can't even issue emergency rate cuts now.
I don't know who would be crazy enough to write options these days.
Probably some sub of C that knows it's got a government backstop.
Regions Financial Corp. down BIG today; guess they have some explaining to do???
Federal regulators are asking financial institutions to monitor their use of government money received under the $700 billion rescue plan and other support.
Banks and other financial institutions should track how the federal money or guarantees they received helped them boost "prudent lending" and efforts to help at-risk borrowers avoid foreclosures, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said Monday in a directive issued to the roughly 5,100 state-chartered banks and savings and loans for which it is the primary regulator.
"Banks are expected to document how they are continuing to meet the credit needs of creditworthy borrowers," the directive says. "The FDIC expects that ... (institutions) will deploy funding received from these federal programs to prudently support credit needs in their market and strengthen bank capital."
Among the banks that have received the most funds from the various federal programs are Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. Scores of smaller banks also have been recipients, including Zions Bancorp, Regions Financial Corp. and Western Alliance Bancorp.
8000 about to go
SEVEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You know its bizzaro world when I start agreeing with the Republicans about blocking that extra Tarp money
Dow
8,000 -199.76
gimme a 6..............
Posted on the old thread, Roubini on cnbc this morning
Video - CNBC.com
I found it interesting he mentioned the banking system is "involvent" and they still let him talk...
I don't know who would be crazy enough to write options these days.
I wonder how many options out there are the result of verticals. I know in the past I'd written a lot of calls as for that reason.
Wow! 6 pts away from breaking through Dow 8000.
Crack! Splinter!
12:28 p.m. Thurs., Jan 15, 2009
Dow industrials-202.78 -2.47%at 7997.36
withdrawn, and where?
Is WFC a reasonable option. Credit unions not very feasible/convenient based on my location.
Thought TX was immune ;p Now everyone's going to want that 20%. Deflation sucks.
anonymous | 01.15.09 - 12:41 pm | #
TX is not immune. However, business in Houston is still healthy from what we can tell. The Dallas market is starting to grip the panic.
Is < 8k really a surprise?
The Midwest & Mid-Atlantic regionals also got into the mfg PE action - I know a number of mid-sized mfg companies supplying the automotive sector that were taken over via PEs levered up with help from the regionals [and folks like GE Capital] - that was 3-5 years ago at peak prices. The PEs have bled off everything they could but in many cases the leverage is still there. The regionals are going to bleed red ink from this folly as well as from their commercial RE and C&D loans. It's all going to suck.
Bank of America is now trading under $10. Convincingly.
Time to activate the Credit Union backup plan for the checking accounts...
Comrade Kristina --
I have noticed that Roubini writes and talks the most when the market is near a (short-term) bottom.
He was pretty quiet through the recent bear rally, for instance.
Just an observation.
Dow 7-handle?
In which insolvent bank should I store my money?
WFC missed its days as a crazy teen.
I say 5 years out...DJIA 3-5k.
Have thought this for a year or so.
Is < 8k really a surprise?
Speed | 01.15.09 - 12:47 pm | #
No, it's just further confirmation that we aren't all delusional. At least for me.
What about a smoke and a pancake?
YouTube - smoke and a pancake
@Nor Car - My opinion only - WFC is better than C or BAC or anything else trading under $10. But it's not clear that any of the big banks is going to survive to the end of this, and they bit off some bad fruit when they absorbed Wachovia.
Down goes Frazier
Down goes Frazier
Most of the regionals/locals are down today. We are getting closer to the time when some of the smaller banks are worth a speculation. Maybe not now, but soon. You need to know your bank, though. I prefer ones with a long reputation of conservative management, preferably where I know someone in management who will tell me the truth. Everybody has a situation like that in their hometown, and once a decade or so it's an easy way to make money.
In which insolvent bank should I store my money?
YouTube - Piggy bank.
CNBC: It's not bad news... IT'S JUST PROFIT TAKING.
I feel better.
and posted a surprising fourth-quarter loss as bad loans surged.
Surprising? Delusion still abounds.
Anyone else seeing oversold metrics and wondering if a short-term bottom is coming up soon? I'm not an expert at that (having learned the hard way in October, eh?) and looking for others' opinions. If not bottom today, how much further down?
"CNBC: It's not bad news... IT'S JUST PROFIT TAKING."
Profits on what?
Question for everyone here. If banks are returning less than 1% interest on your money, why would you not pull it as cash?
Pros. Liquidty
Cons. Storage
My feeling is the liquidity value is overcoming the storage costs.
Marshall & Ilsley Corp said it was slashing its dividend...
Huh? The dividend is sacrosanct. If they ever hope to be a big bank they need to understand that means never having to behave rationally. Look here Marshall & Ilsley, you were given TARP money and now you say you are not spending it on dividends? What's next executive perks? Either get with the program or we'll find someone who will.
CNBC: "Good effort Dennis.... this ain't profit taking".
Infotainment!
Hey, weren't they one of the Doo Doo 32?
http://boombustblog.com/component/option,com_myblog/show,As-I-see-it-32-commercial-banks-and-thrifts-may-see-the-feces-hit-the-fan-blades.html/Itemid,20/
It's all priced in. Nothing to see here.
more CNBC: "We're not going to zero here... we're gonna be OK".
Eric writes:gimme a 6..............
We're talking vacation to Hawaii and some nice jewelry first.
M & I is actually cutting executive bonuses and freezing salaries for executives. Hmm, why can't AIG do the same? Or any bank that maybe deserves to ultimately remain in business and is getting TARP money?
Let's not forget the Anatomy of a Sick Bank, which really should have been called the TARP roll call list:
Reggie Middleton says... | The Anatomy of a Sick Bank! - So, how safe is your Doo-Doo? This installment of Reggie Middleton on the As... | Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog | Bank, Banks, Doo, Sick
These articles were penned almost a year ago, back when Paulson was saying the worst is behind us. If I could see it in such detail, why couldn't they?
Israel Attacks UN HQ in Gaza With White Phosphorus Shells
Israel Defends Attack on Building Sheltering 700 Civilians, Storing Food
Israel Attacks UN HQ in Gaza With ‘White Phosphorus’ Shells -- News from Antiwar.com
Enough with these Zionist child-murderers.
*
90 billion on highway construction, energy-efficiency, clean water and transit projects.
*
$54 billion on boosting renewable energy production and renovating public buildings.
*
$141.6 billion on repairing and modernizing schools, as well as fiscal relief to states to prevent cutbacks in services.
*
$102 billion on unemployment benefits, healthcare retention and increasing food stamp benefits.
*
$91 billion in relief to states, including a temporary increase in the Medicare matching rate.
The $275 billion in tax provisions include:
*
A $500-per-worker and $1,000-per-family tax credit.
*
Eliminating a requirement to repay a $7,500 tax credit for homes purchased after 2008 and before July 2009.
*
A $2,500 tax credit for the first four years of higher education expenses.
*
Business provisions including bonus depreciation, a five-year carryback of net operating losses and increased small business expensing.
My feeling is the liquidity value is overcoming the storage costs.
Ministry of Truth | 01.15.09 - 12:53 pm | #
Where do you put it? A rural couple in their mid-to -late 40s near me had about $150K in cash and some PM stolen from their home when they panicked over the possible failure of their bank... yes they had a safe and guns and a security system... and supposedly kept quiet about it... but somehow the word got out and you can't watch something 100% of the time. It was almost all their savings.
The only good thing you can say is their home was paid for, they have no debt and they have time to start over.
Question:
WFC is down nearly 15% today. Was additional information released today that indicates greater losses on the Wachovia transaction?
Speed(Unrated) writes:
\tIs < 8k really a surprise?
Speed | 01.15.09 - 12:47 pm | #
Has the market opened yet?
M & I is actually cutting executive bonuses and freezing salaries for executives. Hmm, why can't AIG do the same? Or any bank that maybe deserves to ultimately remain in business and is getting TARP money?
foilhatgrrl | 01.15.09 - 12:57 pm | #
If getting TARP everyone at the institution ought to be on the GS pay scale.
James --
Excellent observation and question. Was wondering the same myself.
No news from WFC today as far as I know.
GM lowers sales forecasts. They're going to need more taxpayer money soo
If getting TARP everyone at the institution ought to be on the GS pay scale.
dryfly | 01.15.09 - 1:01 pm | #
AMEN brother!
Speed:
I would highly recommend a visit to either Sealy First National or else the Commercial Mason's Bank.
but somehow the word got out and you can't watch something 100% of the time. It was almost all their savings.
dryfly | 01.15.09 - 12:59 pm | #
Friend of my parents is a bank manager and said that it's not uncommon for word of large cash withdrawals to get around.
"Question:
WFC is down nearly 15% today. Was additional information released today that indicates greater losses on the Wachovia transaction?"
Here's my question: after watching acquisition after acquisition blow up the banks' face would WFC, etc. choose to take these turd banks? Is it like when women date a bad boy thinking they're the one that can turn them around?
Unfortunately for me, I discovered CR late into the current malaise and still have exposure to equities via 401K and other qualified savings plans. Took a 30% hit before transitioning about 40% of the remainder into MM and bond funds, balance is in FLPSX and similar funds. I do not wish to take another 30% haircut, but 401K non-equity-based options are thin (not self-directed) and holding cash inside isn't an option - also, have a family full of financial planners who preach dollar-cost-averaging incessantly, and they're still bleating the mantra. won't be tapping these dollars for 20+ years, so immediate needs are not a factor.
collectively the posters here seem pretty astute, especially in comparison with the CFPs and CFCs in the family - what to do?
plz & thx!
@James & Nemo -
C off 18%
BAC off 21% +
WFC off 15%
I just assumed WFC was having a sympathy move and the real drivers were BAC and C...
JPM seems to be getting off scot-free due to the better-than-expected "earnings" report.
A $2,500 tax credit for the first four years of higher education expenses.
REBear | 01.15.09 - 12:59 pm | #
Mark this post. This will not survive the negotiations and reconciliation. Why? Two reasons. First, that directly cuts my tax bill and the law of "blood from stones" means I will get squeezed. Second is more subtle and less paranoid. As a perverse incentive this would place a greater burden on states that subsidize higher education.
From previous thread:
Out til 2010 writes:
Mr Beach,
No one's talking because no one cares.
They survived Oct-Nov, but only lost their 401(k). For the folks who still had their homes, they still ate. They panicked during the financial collapse.
They should be much more worried about the impending personal economic collapse - no job, no prospect, no income, no chance. They got scared at the wrong collapse. They think they can ride this one out.
This is an excellent observation.
I am only hearing very few friends talk about impending job losses or financial insecurity (in Silicon Valley and Los Angeles).
One friend who recently lost his high tech job has two good offers on the table already.
theirs the pivot...
change we can believe in- a tax evading Treasury Secretary.
If we all stop paying our taxes because the tax code is too complicated would that excuse our non payment because so many people do it?
He got a quarterly check from the IMF to reimburse him for their share of the of the self employment taxes that he was paying. Not clear how he could be confused. Then again he was President of the NY Fed while all the shit was going on. So perhaps confusion is a permanent state with him.
I guess all we have going is a change in shift amongst the kleptocrats- step aside Republican thieves time make room for Democratic thieves.
If getting TARP everyone at the institution ought to be on the GS pay scale.
Oh, the banks thought that "GS" meant Goldman Sachs.
@"Friend of my parents is a bank manager and said that it's not uncommon for word of large cash withdrawals to get around. "
How about an extended series of smaller withdrawals, say $300-$500, from an ATM, over a span of weeks. Will anyone besides the computer notice?
I am only hearing very few friends talk about impending job losses or financial insecurity (in Silicon Valley and Los Angeles).
One friend who recently lost his high tech job has two good offers on the table already.
\t Mr. Beach
Mr. Beach | 01.15.09 - 1:06 pm | #
I'm hearing it all around, mostly in Sacramento and mostly auditors/tax accountants.
up on the day!!!
ws-I hope not..
If you are taking a sizeable amount of cash out of a bank, consider driving to a branch in a location fairly distant from your home. Say 30-50 miles or so...then take a circuitous route back home.
That should minimize the local branch gossip that might tip off potential robbers.
Comrade Rally Monkey writes:
up on the day!!!
No banana for you.
Rob D,
"Business provisions including bonus depreciation, a five-year carryback of net operating losses and increased small business expensing."
This one has no dollar limit?
Down goes Frazier
crispy&cole
HAHAHA..Heard Bobby Flay spout this on Food channel last night.... in perfect Cosell accent
foilhatgrrl writes:
M & I is actually cutting executive bonuses and freezing salaries for executives. Hmm, why can't AIG do the same? Or any bank that maybe deserves to ultimately remain in business and is getting TARP money?
foilhatgrrl | 01.15.09 - 12:57 pm | #
People in the Midwest are actually still decent for the most part. At least try to do the right thing. East coast, not so much. I'm allowed to assert such things because I've spent most of my life on the East Coast (now in Minny).
DJH:
In same boat re having money in program with few options (thru wife's employer).
Best you can do is to either find the best proxy for alternatives (i.e. GNMA for treasuries, etc.) or give serious consideration to just withdrawing and taking the hit.
Due Diligence.
I'm hearing it all around, mostly in Sacramento and mostly auditors/tax accountants.
God Shammgod
tax accountants fearing job loss? not bloody likely...
WFC is down nearly 15% today. Was additional information released today that indicates greater losses on the Wachovia transaction?
James
James, will try to find the link, but as I recall, WFC has big time HELOC exposure here in California.
A rural couple in their mid-to -late 40s near me had about $150K in cash and some PM stolen from their home when they panicked over the possible failure of their bank
Truly tragic. How does word like that get around? Would you tell ANYONE?
Maybe I'm just new englandy reserved, but I wouldn't even let my dog in on that one.
Where do you put it? A rural couple in their mid-to -late 40s near me had about $150K in cash and some PM stolen from their home when they panicked over the possible failure of their bank... yes they had a safe and guns and a security system... and supposedly kept quiet about it... but somehow the word got out and you can't watch something 100% of the time. It was almost all their savings.
The only good thing you can say is their home was paid for, they have no debt and they have time to start over.
dryfly | 01.15.09 - 12:59 pm | #
That sucks!
@DJH - Try going to Yahoo, charting up the DOW (they have the data back to 1928), and look at great depression. You have to be comfortable playing through something like that, maybe a little less bad, maybe a bit worse. Then look at the Nikkei 225 (click on the Asia tab from the main page, then the Nikkei 225 link, and chart their bubble-implosion). Dollar-cost averaging is a decent strategy if you can go through the entire down leg, and if you're certain there's an eventual upside on the far side that's within your time horizon. But you do have to watch all your contributions shrink until the bottom is finally in...
wisdom:
depends on the definition of "large".
certainly no problem if you do multiple repeated ATM withdrawals.
I've taken the middlin' route.
"Business provisions including bonus depreciation, a five-year carryback of net operating losses and increased small business expensing."
This one has no dollar limit?
REBear | 01.15.09 - 1:10 pm | #
Noticed that did you? Talk about double standards. Thay want lossbacks? Fine, they come in the same package as clawbacks. Buy one and get the other for free. On the large stage the same thing is happening with the banks. Even if they ever pay back the TARP funds it will be less than their cummulative and retroactive and carried forward tax benefits.
If 350B of the TARP was spent previously and the assclowns in DC haven't released the other 350B requested by GWB, where is the money coming from for these funds (besides Sylvester Bernanke's printing press)??????
Bank of America reportedly to get billions from Washington - MarketWatch
I do not wish to take another 30% haircut, but 401K non-equity-based options are thin (not self-directed) and holding cash inside isn't an option - also, have a family full of financial planners .....still bleating the mantra. won't be tapping these dollars for 20+ years, so immediate needs are not a factor.
DJH | 01.15.09 - 1:05 pm | #
Good luck; You might see another 15-20% before a real turnaround. If the DOW hits 6500, I plan to start dollar averaging back in, but I think we're 3-6 mos. away from a turnaround.
Or not......
We'll see-
Best you can do is to either find the best proxy for alternatives (i.e. GNMA for treasuries, etc.) or give serious consideration to just withdrawing and taking the hit.
Due Diligence.
homedad43
Thanks for the input, and I hear you on the withdrawal option, but that's another 30+% hit I don't want to take (10% penalty and 20+% in taxes). I wish ponies were an option in our qualified plans...
If getting TARP everyone at the institution ought to be on the GS pay scale.
dryfly | 01.15.09 - 1:01 pm | #
AMEN brother!
crispy&cole | Homepage | 01.15.09 - 1:02 pm | #
By GS I hope you mean the Federal Govt pay scale, not Goldman Sachs pay scale.
I suppose the saurerkraut crop failed.
James - the news was posted in a comment thread last night. I forget what it was, but when I read it, I let out a big RUT RO! I'll see if I can find it.
time to start another leg down - we need to go convincingly below 8000 -- after all the 2nd tranche of TARP being voted on this afternoon - need to motivate those Senators to do the right thing)
By GS I hope you mean the Federal Govt pay scale, not Goldman Sachs pay scale.
Dirk | Homepage | 01.15.09 - 1:15 pm | #
LOL - Ya Fed pay scale... but better watch the fine print, right?
tax accountants fearing job loss? not bloody likely...
\t DJH
DJH | 01.15.09 - 1:11 pm | #
I know of several looking to move out of the big 4 who can't find jobs. Firms are fearful about overhiring. What I hear is that work might not be sharply down, maybe slightly due to clients that have already closed. But getting paid is in doubt. Less hiring coming out of school and less experienced hiring.
Sciurus,
Did you see the bounce back when it went below 8000 earlier, we have some "automatic" resistance there, ya think?
Speaking of GM....anyone else notice the raft of vehicles it is selling at the "Wal-Mart" of car auctions this week?
They added them in at the last minute, hence the lot numbers are XXX.1 or so.
But as proof positive that people still have not "gotten it" someone actually paid $36k for an Isetta.
It's quite comical to see them empty out it's "Heritage Collection"...not so funny if you worked there and built the cars.
Ciao
MS
thanks also to Wisdom Speaker and XXXXX - wish I would have found this forum a year ago!
now if I could only locate that conjure clock...
Hey, not to go tin foil and all, but does anyone else here think that the news coming out of the banking sector is intentionally designed so that it looks especially needy just as TARP PT.2 gets ready to find something to paper over?
In other news, Black Angus filed for bankruptcy!
I swear it's because of those costly repairs from pesky patrons who keep stealing the "g" from their signs. I'm sure gonna miss that restaurant.
Now where could I go for a comparable salad these days?...
If getting TARP everyone at the institution ought to be on the GS pay scale.
dryfly | 01.15.09 - 1:01 pm | #
AMEN brother!
crispy&cole | Homepage | 01.15.09 - 1:02 pm | #
By GS I hope you mean the Federal Govt pay scale, not Goldman Sachs pay scale.
Dirk | Homepage | 01.15.09 - 1:15 pm | #
GS? Surely you jest. E, W and O scales with commensurate pay and obligations. IIRC O-9s with a half century of service get less than $200k/yr. Ever met a real GS-15? I swear they either need translators or at least handlers in social situations.
I know of several looking to move out of the big 4 who can't find jobs. Firms are fearful about overhiring. What I hear is that work might not be sharply down, maybe slightly due to clients that have already closed. But getting paid is in doubt. Less hiring coming out of school and less experienced hiring.
God Shammgod
sorry, my response was "tongue-in-cheek" - I'm a tax accountant on the industry side, and everyone is watching their back at this point.
WFC bounced like a super ball when DJ hit 8000. Hope you werent like the little kid who throws it hard against the ground and forgets to move his head, only to have said superball shoot back up into his eye.
Geoff+save+rent=unamericanfool writes:
Hey, not to go tin foil and all, but does anyone else here think that the news coming out of the banking sector is intentionally designed so that it looks especially needy just as TARP PT.2 gets ready to find something to paper over?
Geoff+save+rent=unamericanfool | 01.15.09 - 1:20 pm | #
I had the same thought. It does seem strangely timed once again, does it not? Seems like they're looking to whip up fear again to ram through the rest of the TARP in Congress. The fleecing of the U.S. continues.
DJH & homedad43:
If your 401k's allow loans, find out what the interest rate is and crunch the numbers against what you could earn outside the 401k (especially if you can pay off other, higher-interest loans).
In this interest-rate environment, your 401k loan at somewhere between 5 and 10% is probably better than any other fixed income vehicle available in the 401k, plus since you are paying yourself back you have essentially eliminated credit risk. The only downside is if you tie up the money and then lose your job, triggering repayment.
For people saying "I wish I could do xyz in the 401k," this offers a way to get the cash out of the 401k so that you can do xyz in your retail account. Of course, you have to be sure that xyz is really going to make you money...
Truly tragic. How does word like that get around? Would you tell ANYONE?
Maybe I'm just new englandy reserved, but I wouldn't even let my dog in on that one.
Outsider | 01.15.09 - 1:12 pm | #
See God Shammgod's take - from what my source suggested the police are searching that avenue - inside info from an employee at the bank but nothing yet.
The Bad News Bears writes:
Where do you put it? A rural couple in their mid-to -late 40s near me had about $150K in cash and some PM stolen from their home when they panicked ov...
It will turn out to be "friends" of the family. Probably live within 10 miles of them.
j marston -thx!
Personnel at the bank from which they withdrew their money in cash knew what was going on.
I think it's time for the U.S. to liquidate. Who gets the nukes? I vote Equador.
Let's give the nukes to the Vatican -I love a moral dilemma
sorry, my response was "tongue-in-cheek" - I'm a tax accountant on the industry side, and everyone is watching their back at this point.
\t DJH
DJH | 01.15.09 - 1:22 pm | #
Sorry, went right over my head.
convert silos to energy producing reactors...security is already there.
energy problem solved.
Geoff+save+rent=unamericanfool writes:
Hey, not to go tin foil and
Bad market day makes good headlines if the (Obi and his media pals) agenda is to get Geithner appointed and the 2nd tranche released -
I think it's time for the U.S. to liquidate. Who gets the nukes? I vote Equador.
Morocco Bama | 01.15.09 - 1:26 pm | #
I say Brazil. How many wars did they start in the last 30 years ?
Hey, not to go tin foil and all, but does anyone else here think that the news coming out of the banking sector is intentionally designed so that it looks especially needy just as TARP PT.2 gets ready to find something to paper over?
You think? I feel pretty confident that this is, indeed, the case.
For instance, why else have BofA show it's need for TARP now as opposed to last month when they first came to Treasury? it makes no sense.
Found the answer to my question:
From the street.com "one analyst at Atlantic Equities thinks so. He also believes that the large US bank could need to raise up to $10 billion following its acquisition of Wachovia.
Richard Straite downgraded Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) from Neutral to Underweight this morning, citing, in addition to the possible capital raise and dividend cut, an expected disappointing Q4 earnings announcement, which will be out on Wednesday, January 28."
Two things are for sure, the Wachovia deal will produce a huge tax gain for WFC and the deal will produce huge loan portfolio losses, which one is greater, not sure.
For those of you who hate your 401k options:
Call your administrator who manages the plan and ask them to add other options.
I was VERY unhappy with my options about 2-3 years ago so I went to my HR person and said "Hey, I want a Treasury option in my 401k". She gave me the number of the 401k guy, who set it up.
Just a month or two later we had a Treasury option in there. That's where my 401k sits. (yep, it's all treasuries, no ginnies or fannies)
... from what my source suggested the police are searching that avenue - inside info from an employee at the bank but nothing yet.
\t dryfly
dryfly | 01.15.09 - 1:23 pm | #
That has to be the case, but find the right one/ones is probably a long shot. Recovery even more so. I'm guessing that it takes some skill to go in with a safe and security system and all that.
RE: Regions Bank
Regions Financial News - Topix
other news at this site as well
now if I could only locate that conjure clock...
DJH | 01.15.09 - 1:20 pm | #
Why? Do you think it's like a falling elevator and you're going to jump up at the last second to avoid getting crushed? I don't think that's going to work. Or is it just for the relief when it finally hits midnight and we can start hoping for the dawn?
Is the stock market dead?
See: Death in absentia
Death in absentia - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
According to Edgar Sentell, a retired senior vice-president and general counsel of Southern Farm Bureau Life Insurance Company, almost all the states recognize the presumption of death, by statute or judicial recognition of the common law rule. However, some states have amended their statutes to lower the seven-year period to only five consecutive years missing, and some, such as Minnesota and Georgia, have reduced the period even shorter to four years.
from the last thread:
Forget Kristina, he's cute >; )
Lovely ceremony, quiet and classy and girl after my own heart. And you're from STL!
Wash U is a great school. Love love love the area. The former Mr. Jane is still there. We had a place right off the west side of the park, walked to campus everyday. I miss it terribly.
INDU, 9,000..... today!
Two things are for sure, the Wachovia deal will produce a huge tax gain for WFC and the deal will produce huge loan portfolio losses, which one is greater, not sure.
James | 01.15.09 - 1:32 pm | #
No one ever went broke paying taxes. But plenty have gone broke trying to avoid paying taxes.
\tINDU, 9,000..... today!
Eric | 01.15.09 - 1:35 pm | #
Yes please. I need an Obama rally, cuz I don't trust any of this as an entry point (short).
I just got clipped.
RockyR | 01.15.09 - 12:40 pm | #
Are you using CR Companion, and if so, have you updated to 1.07? I put in an ostensible (I can't repro it, so can't confirm) fix for this yesterday.
dj, I thought you were a ST Louis girl. We live in Florida now, but all of hubs family is St. Louis. I actually was accepted to Wash U with scholarships and had to turn it down after my Dad attempted suicide back in the early 90's. Quit school and never went back...long story. Wash U is a GREAT school. Wish I had gone.
Re: + sso
Are you saying "add treasuries + SSO to your 401k options"?
Or are you dropping your flag w/r/t a new rally?
"The market is forecasting a deflation scenario for years," said Tim Wilhide, co-manager of the $831-million Hartford Inflation Plus Fund. "Nothing on the horizon says right now that the economy is turning around."
The gap between yields on regular five-year notes and five-year TIPS is negative 0.33 percentage point, suggesting consumer prices will decline 0.33% on average over the next five years. That difference is known as the break-even rate and is considered a signal for what investors expect inflation to be over the life of the debt.
v
There are no degrees in chicago now. Actually we owe someone 11 of them.
o flag, but I bought the sso
"Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of a day; but a series of oppressions, begun at a distinguished period and pursued unalterably through every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematic plan of reducing [a people] to slavery." --Thomas Jefferson: Rights of British America, 1774
Obushma plan; to continue the fraud with taxcheat bubbleman Geithner.
o flag, but I bought the sso
Popeye
Thaks for the tip. I bought SDS as soon as I read it.
"I bought the sso"
I am tempted, sorely tempted. Good luck with your trade.
Deflation currently poses the greatest risk to the world economy, and in particular, the eurozone, the UN trade and development body's chief economist said on Thursday.
"The big danger is not that we have a global recession, the bigger danger is that we are running into a severe situation of deflation," said UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) chief economist Heiner Flassbeck.
The entire eurozone is "in danger of running into deflation," he added, saying that only massive public investments could combat these risks.
hanks for the input, and I hear you on the withdrawal option, but that's another 30+% hit I don't want to take (10% penalty and 20+% in taxes). I wish ponies were an option in our qualified plans...
DJH | 01.15.09 - 1:14 pm | #
If you want to move out of your existing fund (and your fund allows it), you could transfer into an IRS at Fidelity, and then you'd have lots of choices, though nothing is particularly good at the moment (5% is a really good ROR today). If you loose you job, it's all that much easier, though not necessarily all that pleasant.
Let's give the nukes to the Vatican -I love a moral dilemma
Concerned Observer | 01.15.09 - 1:27 pm | #
I think that's a great idea, but let's not abort the mission. That would be double jeopardy.
i saw a financial analyst opening at Marshall & Isley on a job site just the other day. hey, they're hiring!
## No one ever went broke paying taxes. But plenty have gone broke trying to avoid paying taxes.
Volker the Viking | 01.15.09 - 1:35 pm | #
FWIW, I think the Beatles and Rolling Stones had to move to France to keep from going broke by paying taxes.
When will the Obama rally come?
I want back in on the shorts...
As youve said many times, the US government is printing a lot of money right now, when do you think inflation will come around and bite us?
Rogers: Well there is inflation now in many things. Theres temporary deflation in raw material prices and in some property. But throughout history, whenever youve had gigantic printing of money and spending of borrowed money, it has always led to higher prices. Unless something is dramatic, its going to happen again. When? I dont know. Its already happening in some things. I dont know if youve bought any sugar recently or some other things, prices are up and that will continue and it will get worse.
Exclusive Interview with Jim Rogers: Inflation Is Coming -- Seeking Alpha
LOL!!
So long Ca we hardly knew you
ah Ca native but apparently I don't have the CA native 'tude >; )
We moved, loved the place, the former hubby has a great job at WU and place, I came back to CA before I lost my time in service at UCD... it all had a very lifetime channel feel though it was extemely amicable. (please shoot me now)
We have similar stories. My first years were at UCI full ride scholarship, accepted to Stan but couldn't afford it after my dad died (thank you Reagan and the 80s recession). If I had stayed in, I'd be Dr. Jane ob/gyn now and playing the greatful dead in the delivery room sighs.
Break-even would be about 22 to 23 cents a pound, he said. Prices in recent weeks, according to Legendre, have been in the 19-20 cents a pound range.
"That's just unrealistic," Legendre said, noting that for some farmers, this is on top of production losses and high fertilizer and diesel costs paid before the price of those inputs began to fall. He said sugar prices haven't budged much over the last 15 to 20 years.
Simon said carry-over debt from the 2008 crop could make it tough for some farmers to get financing for their next crop, an issue that could affect acreage. If farmers can't get the necessary funding, it could mean they plant less acreage or don't plant at all.
Wallace Ellender III, who farms near Bourg, about 25 miles north of where Gustav made landfall, said he met with his banker last week and is trying to get together financing. He's not sure whether he'll be able to do it.
Farmer are planting less ... may be wise to think about food in 2009!
j marston | 01.15.09 - 1:23 pm | #
I just pulled my interest rate up on my 401k this am for a loan. 2.5%.
Christ,the last time I looked it was 6.5% I think.
Chris
Party time and planning ahead:
Wiarton Willie
Wiarton Willie - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Wiarton Willie is a famous Canadian groundhog who lives in the community of Wiarton in Bruce County, Ontario. Every February 2, on Groundhog Day, Willie takes part in the local Wiarton Willie Festival. His role is to predict whether there will be an early spring. Although the original Wiarton Willie died in 1999, the Wiarton groundhog day celebrations continue each year with the original Willie's successors, referred to as "Wee Willie."
2.5? Wow. Could be a win-win compared to the rates on your 401k money market and the cost of credit outside your 401k. OTOH, I am guessing that most folks here don't carry a lot of credit card debt.
deflationary jane said: "I'd be Dr. Jane ob/gyn now and playing the grateful dead in the delivery room sighs."
Grateful Dead? Is this black humor, an unintentional joke, or is the world better off that you aren't a doctor?
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Sebastia
A Big "U"! Is this the bottom?
One friend who recently lost his high tech job has two good offers on the table already
Your friend is lucky that dead-cat bounce buyers exist in hiring, too.
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MI is actually one of the better run banks. They have been working aggressively to write down loans and get REO off the balance sheet. Other banks are pretending that thing will improve soon.