TRACY, Calif. -- The financial crisis has caused a lot of withdrawals at the public library.
A few years ago, public libraries were being written off as goners. The Internet had made them irrelevant, the argument went. But libraries across the country are reporting jumps in attendance of as much as 65% over the past year, as newly unemployed people flock to branches to fill out résumés and scan ads for job listings.
Other recession-weary patrons are turning to libraries for cheap entertainment -- killing time with the free computers, video rentals and, of course, books.
Main Street's white washed windows and vacant stores seems like there aint nobody wants to come down here no more They're closing down the textile mill cross the railroad tracks foreman says "these jobs are going boys and they aint coming back"
According to Eurostat, Germany imported 3.0 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas in 2004. The largest source of natural gas imports was Russia (46 percent), followed by Norway (33 percent) and the Netherlands (23 percent).
Germany consumed 3.4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in 2004. 3rd highest in the world
For Werner to pretend Germany uses no natural gas is laughable. E.ON has had to use lignite to keep the German miners employed, because they've passed peak anthracite
I thought it was fairly important you should not be ignorant of something so important
An advertising project I'm involved with has been approached by 2 media groups to sell inventory for us while we can also sell on our own. I figure this way we don't actually have to pay anybody if we don't want to a maybe can steal a few when we decide to go large.
"Other recession-weary patrons are turning to libraries for cheap entertainment -- killing time with the free computers, video rentals and, of course, books."
Oh crap, that is how a revolution starts.
"Dude, check out this Marx stuff. Some serious shit."
"Yeah, awesome! Hoocodanode!"
There's never been a better time to fire employees Charles Kiting | 01.16.09 - 5:58 pm | #
I had a buddy who suggested the same thing. Now is a great time to get rid of all those employees that might have had lawsuits with them had they been pushed out a year ago....
My company is planning layoffs (San Francisco). Like dryfly aluded to previously they are saying it will be primarily in non-client facing areas. Tech and business. The latest rumor is 50% of all tech and a smaller but significant number in business. We are 12k large and probably 2k of that is in tech.
Sebastian, are you still calling for November being the max threshold for monthly layoffs? Pissed Off In California | 01.16.09 - 6:02 pm | #
Tell me he didnt say that please. Every unemployment graph CR puts up shows that the unemployment rate increase thru the recession and peaks after its over. I dont really want to go here but is someone honestly suggesting we're thru this... Anyone? If so email me at you'refaakinnutz at gmail dot com!
"non-client facing areas. Tech and business. The latest rumor is 50% of all tech"
That'll work well until the auto pilot crashes during that big sales presentation. Nothing screams buy! to a client like a sales goof trying to make his glowing box thingy "go".
"nades writes:
Sebastian, are you still calling for November being the max threshold for monthly layoffs?
Pissed Off In California | 01.16.09 - 6:02 pm | #
Tell me he didnt say that please. Every unemployment graph CR puts up shows that the unemployment rate increase thru the recession and peaks after its over. I dont really want to go here but is someone honestly suggesting we're thru this... Anyone? If so email me at you'refaakinnutz at gmail dot com!
LOL!"
Oh yes he did. No joke; I think he was using the Wright-B unemployment model.
Back in the IT bust there was a guy on the Monster IT Job Search Forum who kept a running total - it was quite impressive. Monster finally shit canned that forum format to purge the system of 'negativity' - after all only happy drones find jobs in the corporate beehive. I got a feeling this F/U will make dotbomb look like a pregame warm up.
I hope you aren't taking about Microsoft Pissed as they have started to approach the laid-off R&D folks from Apple.
Working for MS was anathma to this group as recently as Oct 08 but now they're just pissed. Any brand loyalty, which aapl had in spades, going the way of the dodo.
nah, looked at the % of tech so no it's not. Tell me it's chevron and I'll die laughing.
"non-client facing areas. Tech and business. The latest rumor is 50% of all tech"
That'll work well until the auto pilot crashes during that big sales presentation. Nothing screams buy! to a client like a sales goof trying to make his glowing box thingy "go"."
My group is most likely safe. 6 people to develop and support probably 10 applications. No more meat on the bone in our department.
I actually offered to take the package. It's a real sweet one. Unfortunately they won't let me take one for the team.
35,000 Circuit City
11,000 GE Capital
4,000 Hetrz
2,000 Cessna
1,500 WellPoint
1,200 ConocoPhillips
1,100 AMD
1,000 Blue Shield
About 57,000 layoff announcements today.. and that is just in the +1000 layoff list. I have a feeling that if you added up all the layoffs (especially the sub 1000 layoffs) announced today we would cross 100k - for one day..
We cannot afford many days like today.
Each well paid job lost = 2-4 less well payed jobs lost.
SAN DIEGO Citing a dramatic decline in advertising revenue, The San Diego Union-Tribune announced cost-cutting measures Friday that include a temporary furlough for hourly employees.
Hourly workers at the newspaper, its Web site, SignOnSanDiego.com, and its other publications will be required to take one to two days off without pay in February and March, depending on their pay grade, Union-Tribune CEO and President Gene Bell said in an internal announcement.
Managers will also see reductions in their pay during those two months.
I don't understand the unemployment problem. They said if they approved the $700B Tarp, Joe and Janes pay check would be good. Tarp about out of money and the paychecks are no good. Main street scammed again!
"Working for MS was anathma to this group as recently as Oct 08 but now they're just pissed. Any brand loyalty, which aapl had in spades, going the way of the dodo.
nah, looked at the % of tech so no it's not. Tell me it's chevron and I'll die laughing."
No, I did the smart thing and decided to get out of biotech about 5 years ago. Too unstable an area for a software engineer. I moved into a big financial firm for the "stability".
CR, Times are tough. Perhaps you should put 2 of your 10 fingers on unspecified, unpaid leave. First, you should write them up a couple of bad perforamce reports, though, to save yourself a lawsuit.
What if Bush gave a farewell to his presidency and no one paid attention?
Apparently, that is exactly what happened last night.
Personally, I think Karl Rove should be drug out into the street and shot Mussolini style. But, that's just me.
Perhaps we are all to blame for these turn of events. We willfully allowed our government to act on our behalf in a way which has caused permanent damage to this country. And by "we" I mean all the fucking idiots who voted for Bush in 2004.
I have been watching/listening to CNBC over the past 2 years. If there is one thing I am absolutely convinced of, its that the so called experts have absolutely no clue what they are talking about most of the time. They follow trends. If the market is up, they think it will always go up. If the market is down, they think it will always go down.
According to my BLS handbook, more people not working for a large company mean more people can start their own small businesses.
So the announcements today alone make for maybe 30,000 new small businesses and 90,000 new small business jobs
```````````
lucifer:
About 57,000 layoff announcements today.. and that is just in the +1000 layoff list. I have a feeling that if you added up all the layoffs (especially the sub 1000 layoffs) announced today we would cross 100k - for one day..
"For 17 years now, several former satellites and republics of the Soviet Union have cherished their democracies, all made possible by the simple premise that the days of Russian dominance were over.
The events in Georgia over the past week have made them rethink that idea. Poland announced Thursday that it had reached a deal with Washington to base American missile interceptors on its territory, after months of talks. But then a Russian general went so far as to say that Poland might draw Russian nuclear retaliation, sending new shudders through the region.
The sense of alarm may be greatest here in Ukraine. Since the Orange Revolution began in 2004, bringing the pro-Western Viktor Yushchenko to power after widespread protests, Ukraine has been a thorn in Moscow's side, though perhaps not as sharp as the outspoken Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili."
"Are the bankers who are taking our tax dollars for the bailout still making very large salaries?"
Of course! (1) By all means, we don't want to insult the financial sector when we need them most; and (2) now more than ever we need the "best and brightest" to solve the problems they created.
This is the continuation of the dotbomb, deficit spending, Keynesian orgy that has been going on for decades. Speed | 01.16.09 - 6:11 pm | #
NPR this morning had someone opining that the jury on the effectiveness of Keynesian policies is still out thus confirming that it is impossible to prove a negative.
I don't want to name names. Sorry, but they've already been in the news over the last month for a smaller group of layoffs. Plus they're well run so that should make it even easier to figure out
"NPR this morning had someone opining that the jury on the effectiveness of Keynesian policies is still out thus confirming that it is impossible to prove a negative."
Who's doing that. Keynsianism IS stoopid. Prove it isn't.
"Germany is Russia's biggest foreign customer for natural gas."
So what, it is a good deal, both parties have to behave now, mutual co-dependency. Russians are learning this game of capitalism while Americans seem to be unlearning...
I hope you are right.. I also remember ex-employees who said Merck would never have mass layoffs (as late as 2005)
//Actually not at my company. One of very few financial companies still in the black. They are actually quite well run.
Pissed Off In California | 01.16.09 - 6:17 pm | #//
Government Considers New Bailout Plans
WSJ * JANUARY 16, 2009, 5:58 P.M. ET
WASHINGTON -- The U.S. government, recognizing that the banking crisis is larger than originally thought, is laying the groundwork for a second phase of its rescue attempt with plans to tackle the toxic assets gumming up the system.
Officials at the Treasury, Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., in consultation with the incoming Obama administration, are discussing a range of options, according to government and transition officials. One plan would create a government bank that would buy up bad assets. Another would standardize efforts to have the ...
This daily reminder of the U.S. collapse is simply noise. Check back in a year to see if there's been a change. In the meantime, as the Criminal-In-Command ordered: Be PatRIOTic and SHOP.
Last thought on Keynes: "He did not like Jews," Davidson said. "He didn't like the French. He really found Americans to be stupid he didn't think they had any right to have as much power as they had in the world. And he really did not care for the working class at all." (NPR, 1/16/2009)
Last thread Werner said something to the effect that Germany didn't depend on Russia for gas and their electric grid was supported by his hot air generation...or something
"Last thought on Keynes: "He did not like Jews," Davidson said. "He didn't like the French. He really found Americans to be stupid he didn't think they had any right to have as much power as they had in the world. And he really did not care for the working class at all." (NPR, 1/16/2009)
Speed"
"Separately, the FDIC board announced that it will soon propose rule changes to its Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program to extend the maturity of the guarantee from three to up to 10 years where the (BAC's) debt is supported by collateral and the issuance supports new consumer lending"
Barack Obama has only one answer to the trillions in public funds wasted in the past year and a half: he pushes Double or Nothing. America has become a country that has in its entirety adopted the philosophy and lifestyle that have established its darkest (thats why they need the bright lights) and seediest corners: Las Vegas and Atlantic City. For all the talk of redemption and salvation, there is only one real religion that governs the US: the dual deity of money and gambling. As many who've walked the shadier alleys in Vegas can tell you, that is the sort of belief system that you can rely on to deliver you into bankruptcy. Its one religion that holds the promise of a certain outcome. And it's all America has left.
AE
Just wanted to announce that I took the plunge today!
Yep, that's right.
After 9.5 years with Bank of America, I started dating a Credit Union on the side.
Opened up my account today. May not switch fully over, but at the current time it seems like a good idea to have a "backup" account at a local institution. Not so much because I worry about BofA blowing up (I think Uncle Ben will create more invisible "Fed Assets" to prop up the big banks), but because I woke up to the fact that those Wall Street clowns were pissing away my deposit money when they made those idiotic loans that have blown up in their faces.
I figure, if they're going to lose my money without telling me, and then ask me to pay 'em back with my tax money, I ain't gonna give 'em no more of my money!
(Okay, so the local bankers may not be much better, but with a Credit Union, at least you get to watch the financials, and most of the money gets lent locally. The money may still end up in the hands of deadbeats, but they're LOCAL deadbeats, if you know what I mean? I can send my cousin Vinnie out to bust some kneecaps when I want my loans repaid!! )
That, plus the rate of return on a federally-insured money market account is competitive with the Vanguard/Fidelity prime money market rates, and much higher than the Treasury money market rates, so I can get my "safe cash" insured and earning a bit more to boot...
Barack Obama has only one answer to the trillions in public funds wasted in the past year and a half: he pushes Double or Nothing. America has become a country that has in its entirety adopted the philosophy and lifestyle that have established its darkest (thats why they need the bright lights) and seediest corners: Las Vegas and Atlantic City. For all the talk of redemption and salvation, there is only one real religion that governs the US: the dual deity of money and gambling. As many who've walked the shadier alleys in Vegas can tell you, that is the sort of belief system that you can rely on to deliver you into bankruptcy. Its one religion that holds the promise of a certain outcome. And it's all America has left.
4% layoff will be a bit over 1,300 employees...I expect the ranks of contractors across the energy industry to take the brunt of the first wave.
ConocoPhillips to Take $34 Billion Charges, Cut Staff (Update1)
By Edward Klump
Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- ConocoPhillips, the third-largest U.S. oil company, said it will cut 4 percent of its workforce and write down an estimated $34 billion of previous acquisitions including OAO Lukoil, after energy prices plunged.
The company plans to reduce the value of its equity investment in Russias Lukoil by $7.3 billion, Houston-based ConocoPhillips said today in a statement. Other asset writedowns totaling $1.3 billion will be recorded.
Pissed Off In California asked: "Sebastian, are you still calling for November being the max threshold for monthly layoffs?"
Yup, although I'm certain that there will be more total layoffs and the unemployment rate will continue to rise. In the last recession, for example, the maximum one-month extreme was October, 2001, but monthly net job losses continued until August, 2003. As missing-in-action Jas Jain has often opined, employment is a heavily-lagged indicator.
UBS Agrees to Sell Commodities Units to Barclays
NEW YORK -- UBS AG has agreed to sell its oil, base metals and U.S. power and gas businesses, further concentrating commodity trading among major banking firms.
"Yup, although I'm certain that there will be more total layoffs and the unemployment rate will continue to rise. In the last recession, for example, the maximum one-month extreme was October, 2001, but monthly net job losses continued until August, 2003. As missing-in-action Jas Jain has often opined, employment is a heavily-lagged indicator.
Sebastian"
ookay, I don't know it's looking pretty bad this month if you ask me.
The Government Accountability Office (GAO), Congress' investigative watchdog, has found that "a majority of America's largest publicly traded companies and the U.S. government's largest federal contractors use multiple subsidiaries in offshore tax havens to conduct business and avoid paying U.S. taxes," writes Carol D. Leonnig for The Washington Post.
The culprits include some corporate giants who are receiving countless millions in bailout money, Leonnig notes.
Democratic Sens. Byron Dorgan and Carl Levin, who released the report, say that companies such as Citigroup and Morgan Stanley have set up "hundreds of tax haven subsidiaries" in such inconspicuous nations as Luxembourg, Mauritius and the Cayman Islands.
Others figuring prominently in the corporate tax-haven list are such varied firms as 3M, American Express, Caterpillar, Cisco, ConocoPhillips, Dell, Dow Chemical, Exxon Mobil, FedEx, GM, Kraft, Merck, Pepsi, Pfizer, Procter & Gamble, Wachovia, and Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation, which tallied a whopping 782 foreign subsidiaries in 14 countries.
Among the federal contractors listed are Boeing, General Electric, Goodyear, Hewlett-Packard, Honeywell, IBM, ITT, Motorola, Oracle, and Xerox.
"This report shows that some of our country's largest companies and federal contractors, many of which are household names, continue to use offshore tax havens to avoid paying their fair share of taxes," says Sen. Dorgan (D-ND). "[S]ome of those companies have even received emergency economic funds from the government.
"[W]e should take action to shut down these tax dodgers," Dorgan says, "and we will be introducing legislation to do just that."
My group is most likely safe. 6 people to develop and support probably 10 applications. No more meat on the bone in our department.
never underestimate the power of corporate short-sightedness and willing suspension of disbelief.
after 10 1/2 years at my company, my last day is 1/30. in little over 1 year, i've watched my department go from 26 to 11 to 7 to replaced by 3 guys in Mumbai because another department managed to convince management that it was capable of taking over our existing process and supporting reporting needs for all of our clients in the support division.
the fact that my department existed in the first place specifically because they were unable to meet the reporting needs for the support division didn't matter. why should anyone be skeptical of one department's assurances regarding its ability to assume the responsibilities of another department when the dissolution of the latter department guarantees job security for the former.
the outcome has been predictable. the other department has been running away from their promises of support as fast as they can. with no opposition, why shouldn't they?
oh well, as long as my severance checks don't bounce, i'm long past caring about what happens after i leave.
tell me, how that helps your company and ultimately YOU!? NaziBoss | 01.16.09 - 6:43 pm | #
hey had my exec's read CR we wouldnt be in our current predicament... then again if they figured out who 'nades' was I wouldnt have a job either. I guess either way I'm screwed....
Gatsby writes:
"Main Street's white washed windows
and vacant stores
seems like there aint nobody
wants to come down here no more
They're closing down the textile mill
cross the railroad tracks
foreman says "these jobs are going boys
and they aint coming back"
Gotta love McMurtry. I've been too long in the wasteland...
@km4 - thanks for the reminder that with all-Democrats, all-the-time, Uncle Sam is looking at some significant mitigation to that structural deficit!
On the other hand, I expect corporate profits to be on the low side for a while. If you tax-shelter no profits, how much in taxes can they collect by closing loopholes?
More seriously, if you expect corporate profits to trend back to the low end of their historical range (as a fraction of GDP), and you assume a P/E of 10, and a reasonable GDP contraction based on the decline in consumer spending and construction, then you can get S&P 500 target prices below 500 without breaking any rules of arithmetic...
Gary writes:
Gotta love McMurtry. I've been too long in the wasteland...
Curmudgeon | 01.16.09 - 6:46 pm | #
McMurtry? i thought that was a Bruce original
Gary...my bad...you're right. I was thinking about a McMurtry (sp) song on his latest CD that has very similar sentiments, and words. It's after five, and you know...I have been too long in the wasteland.
NOW, I KNOW I'M NEW HERE - AND I'VE ALREADY ENDORSED A PRIOR VIDEO.
`However - I know you far better than you think I do - this is a video you need to watch - think in terms of ruby Tuesday ..... and trust me watch the whole thing - Tuesday - so good to be....
You'all are going to be fired for wasting company time posting to financial blogs!, tell me, how that helps your company and ultimately YOU!? NaziBoss | 01.16.09 - 6:43 pm | #
I'm now probably the most well informed person in my co. about this mess. My input may someday prove useful to them...
the fact that my department existed in the first place specifically because they were unable to meet the reporting needs for the support division didn't matter. Soylent Green is Sheeple | 01.16.09 - 6:45 pm | #
So you've essentially spent the last "how long" with a bullseye one your back?
Markel writes:
...A must-see for everyone on this blog...
And I thought it was about squirrels.
But is was just as god as suirrels, thanks.
Btw. why did it say at the end "THE DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY 1789" ? Is america in deep dodo since then already?
the fact that my department existed in the first place specifically because they were unable to meet the reporting needs for the support division didn't matter. Soylent Green is Sheeple | 01.16.09 - 6:45 pm | #
So you've essentially spent the last "how long" with a bullseye one your back? \t xxxxx | \t \t \t \t01.16.09 - 6:54 pm | # xxxxx | 01.16.09 - 6:54 pm | #
BTW, condolences on your job loss. The axe is about to fall here in the not too distant future.
Pissed Off In California said: "...ookay, I don't know it's looking pretty bad this month if you ask me."
Well, it is a recession, dude. But recessions seem to accelerate downward into a sort of climax crash where everything looks like it's going to Hell at the same time...then it abruptly stops and the clean-up begins.
>If there is one thing I am absolutely convinced of, its that the so called experts have absolutely no clue what they are talking about most of the time.
Amen, Char, Amen. And if there's one thing I'm convinced of, it's that most of Obama's "change" rhetoric was BS. He has a golden opportunity to really change things. But he is too green and too scared, so already he is listening to the "experts."
@Sebastian: "then it abruptly stops and the clean-up begins"
Except when it's 1929 or 1930, and then it just gets worse and worse for a few years until there's damn near a revolution... And then the cleanup takes a decade and involves millions of human sacrifices...
Predator Corporations voraciously eating at the public trough and avoiding paying taxes. Crime does pay and pay and pay..... Taxingmatter.com: "Eighty-three of the 100 largest publicly traded U.S. companies, including Citigroup Inc., PepsiCo Inc., and General Motors Inc., had units in multiple tax havens in 2007, a government study said. Among those companies were some recipients of federal bailout money.
The Government Accountability Office said in a report dated Dec. 18 and released today [Large U.S. Corporations and Federal Contractors with Subsidiaries in Jurisdictions Listed as Tax Havens] by two senators that four companies -- Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Bank of America Inc., and News Corp., had more than 100 subsidiaries in low-tax or no-tax countries......
@km4 - thanks for the reminder that with all-Democrats, all-the-time, Uncle Sam is looking at some significant mitigation to that structural deficit!
On the other hand, I expect corporate profits to be on the low side for a while. If you tax-shelter no profits, how much in taxes can they collect by closing loopholes? Wisdom Speaker | Homepage | 01.16.09 - 6:47 pm | #
On the other hand... I'll cite an external resource. This is a report done in 2003 which shows that total corporate federal tax revenues have declined as both a share of total federal revenues AND as a portion of GDP since the 1950s. In the 1950s, corp taxes were 25.7% of total revenues and 4.8% of GDP. In the 1960s this went to ~21.3% and 3.8% respectively. In the 1970s those numbers became 15.2% and 2.7%. For the 1980s we got 9.3% and 1.7%. For the 1990s it went up a touch to 10.5% and 2.0%, while in this past administration the numbers went almost back to the 1980s with 9.6% and 2.7%.
Bluntly, in general corporations have been paying less share of the federal load at the same time they've been shifting the share of wages from workers to executives. I think it needs fixed, and hope it really happens.
km4 writes:
The Government Accountability Office (GAO), Congress' investigative watchdog, has found that "a majority of America's largest publicly traded companies and the U.S. government's largest federal contractors use multiple subsidiaries in offshore tax havens to conduct business and avoid paying U.S. taxes,"
Bastards
Poor people gonna rise up and take whats's theirs
Bluntly, in general corporations have been paying less share of the federal load at the same time they've been shifting the share of wages from workers to executives. I think it needs fixed, and hope it really happens.
Kirk Spencer | 01.16.09 - 7:00 pm
Bingo !
According to a GAO study released in oct 2008 most corporations pay no federal tax. This is quite an amazing statement - we are told relentlessly that we need to reduce taxes for corporations (they are stated at 35%) so they can create more jobs (overseas ahem). While I think it might be a truth for small businesses, it seems the bigger fish have gamed the system to perfection. Something to think about the next time we are told "we need to cut taxes for corporations to remain competitive." Remember, folks, the % of GDP that is enjoyed by corporations versus workers has reached levels not seen since the 1920s (i.e. the workers in the country are seeing the lowest percentage of profits since right before the Great Depression) That's what happens when the politicians are bought and paid for... (Emphasis mine, and my comments in italics.)
Most U.S. and foreign corporations doing business in the United States avoid paying any federal income taxes, despite trillions of dollars worth of sales.
You'all are going to be fired for wasting company time posting to financial blogs!, tell me, how that helps your company and ultimately YOU!?
NaziBoss | 01.16.09 - 6:43 pm | #
Has helped me make some serious chops calling financial sector insolvency back in May of 2008...but that don't mean squat when the sh!t and blood fly.
Popeye: as per your request in the last thread, here are my thoughts today on derivatives in general and credit in particular.
Notwithstanding what some folks thought I was saying, I do believe that derivatives are a threat to the stability of the financial markets. I just don't think that the threat is as great as some here would say and I certainly don't think that the threat should be measured by throwing out huge notional numbers.
The scary area in credit comes from companies that sold protection without paying margin. AIG fell into this category -- since they were triple A they could get away with selling protection without backing it up with actual cash. There were other insurance companies doing the same thing and this is an area to watch out for.
A lot of people are afraid that hedge funds are selling protection without adequate capital reserves. This may be true but personally I don't worry about this. The dealers are deathly afraid of losing money to hedge funds and they build all kinds of protections into their contracts to prevent this from happening. In addition to margin, dealers put provisions in swap agreements that say that if the hedge fund's net asset value drops below a certain value that the dealers can liquidate -- while there is still cash left. They get these provisions even against the biggest best credit hedge funds. And the small hedge funds cannot sell protection at all without putting cash upfront.
I guess I'm blathering on so I'll have to save other discussions for the future when you are sober. But what I just said above applies to derivatives other than credit as well.
By the way, I am not a CDS trader. Even worse, I am a derivatives lawyer. Not all CDS traders are that bad although some are. Others are just regular folk trying to protect themselves from losing money if their counterparties blow up.
Sebastian,
I am new here and lack standing. I missed seeing your prior sins, but I respect every man who recognizes life is replete with reassessments.
If you trade from honest, you can only win.
Bastards
Poor people gonna rise up and take whats's theirs
Johnny Mustardseed | 01.16.09 - 7:01 pm |
Johnny,
Blame Congress. They wrote the tax regs. If there is a tax loophole, the company has to take it. Why? Two big reasons. First, your competitors all will and if you want to compete, you have to do it as well. Second, you would be subject to shareholder lawsuits for breach of fiduciary duty to maximize return.
Does anybody else wish that Germany goes into Depression just so that Werner shuts up with his grating criticism of the US ? Not good karma, but still. We all that this country is fcuked, why don't you tone it down a little?
2008 Net Birth/Death Adjustment, not seasonally adjusted (in thousands)
Supersector\tJan\tFeb\tMar\tApr\tMay\tJun\tJul\tAug\tSep\tOct\tNov\tDec
Total Nonfarm Birth/Death Adjustment
-378\t135\t142\t267\t217\t177\t4\t125\t42\t71\t30\t72
904,000 net jobs added by fudge factor in 2008 Fake Jobs
Also in the last year or so, about 166,000 jobs were cut in the auto industry. Should hit 300,000 to 400,000 without accounting for bankruptcies, just the labor needed to meet supply without considering inventory buildup
So you've essentially spent the last "how long" with a bullseye one your back?
one way or another? years.
in normal times, the opposition of upper management in the support division was enough to fend off the wolves, since they correctly interpreted that a takeover of support reporting by the other department would have a meaningful and deleterious impact on the quality of the reporting delivered to support.
these days though ...
thx for the condolences, hopefully it'll be a relatively soft landing, my ex-boss contacted me last week about a possible opening working for her at her new company ... we'll see.
The GS crew and all IBers just stuck a long kebob skewer through the globe and have and are now shaking all the loose change out of it.
I truly think that the global financial infrastructure is nearly complete in its breakdown. Only funny money prop saves by USA gov't is keeping all from the full comprehension of that.
they are saying it will be primarily in non-client facing areas Pissed Off In California | 01.16.09 - 6:01 pm | #
Can that be translated as: "They are firing everyone who to actually knows how to keep the beast's central nervous system running, but keeping those who can bullshit and stroke the client while the beast staggers off into the tar pit."
Key questions: How many $1.5 million dollar per year Senior Vice Presidents and Consultants did they hire to fire all those workers? How much are they going to pay said workers when they hire them back as consultants.
If you assume the fudge factor jobs the BLS invented for 2008 are all gone now, but they haven't counted them yet (they only subtracted in December, but it the failures will stretch further back so this is still on the optimistic side)
I heard on NPR this morning too about Keynes being an absolute prick Speed | 01.16.09 - 6:23 pm | #
I heard it more like he told people things they did not want to hear. Things like "a downturn in housing prices would collapse tha whole house of cards." I suspect that he was less of a prick than someone who called em' as he saw em'.
here are the highlights:
As of January 7, 2009, National Commerce Bank had total assets of $430.9 million and total deposits of $402.1 million. In addition to assuming all of the failed bank's deposits, Republic Bank agreed to purchase approximately $366.6 million in assets at a discount of $44.9 million. The FDIC will retain the remaining assets for later disposition.
```````
I'll take failed banks for $1200 Alex.
When are $430.9 million in assets not worth $430.9 million?
Crap, boy have i learned something from you bloggers , this whole time i thought it was kinsey economic theory ...you know based on f'ing each other...
my bad resume your normal life, i'll fix on Monday
"By the way, I am not a CDS trader. Even worse, I am a derivatives lawyer. Not all CDS traders are that bad although some are. Others are just regular folk trying to protect themselves from losing money if their counterparties blow up."
Derivatives, CDO, CDS economics are all great in theory but have been proven to unequivocly fail in the real world, just like Keynsian economics It has happened again and again and again. And every time we get a blowup that almost brings down the world financial system (LTCM, latin america debt crisis and today) I hear that they are fine if used the correct way.
And yet time and time and time again they aren't used the proper way.
Why do you think CDS were called CDS and not insurance? So that you weren't legally required to hold reserves against loss!
At some point someone needs to come out and say that our society is not structured in a way that proves that we can use these financial devises properly, ethicly and maturely.
The way this mess is unfolding and the way it is being handled (sweeping under the rugs, financial companies STILL fighting against forcing CDS onto an exchange) proves it.
How many fricking times do we need to almost bring the world down to accept this simple fact.
Our society and financial companies are built on greed, short-term memories and deploying OPM.
For every poster like the one above talking about using derivatives in the proper way there are 10 other traders attempting to find any loop-hole available to squeeze an extra dime of profits out of their trade.
If you want to have derivatives and CDOs then fine:
a) regulate the trade of them
b) create an OTC system for transparency.
c) any profits that any trader makes of the above vehicles should go into a long-term account and be paid back minus losses that result over time from the trade.
Something to do with in-house nepotism rendering their management impotent
Boy, is that ever true. I've often thought there would be money in circumventing the "Information Priesthood" and going directly to management, at least for some companies.
I interviewed at one major company which had...
wait for it...
written their own application server.
That's almost like writing your own operating system these days. But I didn't have mid-management's ear and frankly, it's not worth the time and trouble to change it unless the company is already in major trouble.
As of January 7, 2009, National Commerce Bank had total assets of $430.9 million and total deposits of $402.1 million. In addition to assuming all of the failed bank's deposits, Republic Bank agreed to purchase approximately $366.6 million in assets at a discount of $44.9 million. The FDIC will retain the remaining assets for later disposition.
The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund will be $97.1 million. Republic Bank's acquisition of all deposits was the "least costly" resolution for the FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund compared to alternatives. National Bank of Commerce is the first bank to fail in the nation this year. The last bank to be closed in the state was Meridian Bank, Eldred, on October 10, 2008.
```````
Sorry with full juciness now.
They are letting the zombie banks grow larger before taking them down now.
Real value of $290 million versus book assets of $430 million
And I'll bet those tech CEO bastards cry to Congress again this year that they need more H1B visas. Uncle Ar | 01.16.09 - 7:23 pm | #
You know, your probably right. But some of those guys want to get re-elected and the usual, "no qulified applicants," or "look at all of these open positons for .net programmers with 6 years exp," are going to fly this year. Even the "Americans, won't do these jobs," is going to be a hard sell at this point. One hope that the public will realize that it was all a buch of BS the whole time.
Sometimes when you are typing fast with comments coming a mile a second you say things that come out sounding a bit stupid. In any event I am not entirely knowledge free even if sometimes it sounds like it.
Well, it is a recession, dude. But recessions seem to accelerate downward into a sort of climax crash where everything looks like it's going to Hell at the same time...then it abruptly stops and the clean-up begins. Sebastian | 01.16.09 - 6:57 pm | #
Actually, I think we're in a depression, dude.:) That said I can't be as definitive as when I ran the NBER numbers by you saying we were in a recession. So let me say why I THINK depression.
First, I recognize there is no definitive definition of depression. After the Great Depression, the US just renamed them - prior to 1935 any downturn was a depression, after 1935 they're recessions. Depression was reserved for "really bad recession," but nobody's put a hard label on it. The generally accepted definition is probably as right as "two quarters of declining GDP" is for recession - that is, it's probably wrong - but it'll have to do. So, depression is a decline in GDP of 10% or more AND/OR a recession that lasts more than three years (12 quarters).
3Q08 gave us 0.5% decline. I am in agreement with Dirk that we will probably see 4Q08 come in between -5.5 and -6% after revisions are done. At the beginning of this quarter we have shipping at a standstill (ships and trucks), we're seeing huge layoffs (as the message to which this is attached demonstrates). Manufacturer's index indicators are that it's going to show a plunge, and both retail and wholesale sales are following suit. Barring a near-miracle, I don't see it turning around before the end of March. Bluntly, I agree with the FOMC report that said we'd have negative GDP AT LEAST through the end of 2Q09. Even if 1Q09 is only half as steep as I anticipate 4Q08 being it puts us on the edge of the magic 10%, and 2Q09 going negative at all goes past that point.
Yes, I think we are already in a depression, though meeting the definition will have to wait till the end of April (for the 1Q report to come out.)
How far down we go and how long it lasts depends in no small part on what the president and congress between them do in regard to the second stimulus plan. This one will maybe slow the drop, but it misses some actions I consider absolutely critical to reverse the plunge. I can see a potential for 50% decline in GDP, unemployment (U3) approaching 20%, housing 60% off peak and total equity declining to 65% of peak, all over the next two to three years. That's the freefall result of insisting on cutting all expenses and going to pure balanced budget.
The corrective action... Actually, mp (or maybe conjure) listed several things that were right a while back, though they pretty much just dealth with financial institutions. The predominate corrective action is getting the money running, and that can't go through crashed financial institutions. Instead, the government needs to sponsor jobs - either direct or indirect, but it needs to get the money into the hands of the people themselves. My preferred route would be through providing either direct or guaranteed loans to businesses that contracted to do a variety of projects SUCH AS rail improvements; broadband wire distribution; road improvements; capital improvements of schools and libraries; alternate energy conversions of houses (on/off-grid switching); and things like that. Yes, I think grants for competitive research on several things would also be good - the holy grail battery would be nice, though other alternate energy sources would be good as well. But all that is EXAMPLE. At base: the banks aren't able to push the money, but the people want to use the money. To get this thing rolling, then, the "trick" is to skip the middleman and get it directly from government to individual.
Yes, this will result in inflation. It beats depression. Later - say three to five years later - we revalue. Everything drops a zero, for example. Done right, it works. Done wrong, it's Mexico of a couple decades ago.
Now, do I think the government will do this? .... I dunno. If they do, I think it will work. If they don't, I AM sure of what will happen - already said. Am I sure of the depression? Yes.
National Bank of Commerce, Berkeley, Illinois, was closed today by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was named receiver.
A couple of posters had mentioned this in the past, but this is the national bank closed by the OCC in quite a while. I think that they were kicking the can until Jan 21. Fitting that the first NA they closed was from Illinois.
President-elect Barack Obama has promised change. And there's one change that internet-happy Americans want more than another other. In an age of crippling recession, skyrocketing unemployment, and the looming threat environmental armageddon, their primary request is this: Pass the joint, yo
Not just a code word for Mexicans. There are illegal immigrants pollacks and hungarians that just keep quiet. There are others who entered legally and just overstayed
We've toyed with the idea of a seven-figure job loss in a month, and if and when it would come. Given the rate of layoffs today, it might come now, in January; February at the latest. I'd been thinking March, like an optimist.
The case arose from a 2005 inquiry by Eliot L. Spitzer, then New Yorks attorney general, into possible race discrimination in the real estate lending of Citigroup, HSBC, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo....
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, part of the Treasury Department, sued to stop the inquiry. The offices regulations, promulgated under the National Bank Act, say that only it may examine banks records or enforce compliance with federal or state laws.
"Even if 1Q09 is only half as steep as I anticipate 4Q08 being it puts us on the edge of the magic 10%, and 2Q09 going negative at all goes past that point."
You forgot that the quarterly reports are annualized numbers. Actual GDP contraction thus far is less than 2%. e.g. (0.5% + 5.5%)/4 = 1.5%
Anonymous writes:
I can't believe how depressing "Lonesome Dove" turned out to be.
Anon - yeah, McMurtry is not a guy to read for cheering you up. That said, his books are still worth reading. I guess the take home message is "everybody dies - get used to it."
Where do you live? Totally beliveable here. Blackhalo | 01.16.09 - 7:48 pm | #
I live in Ventura County. When I say 30m is not credible you had best take that opinion under consideraqtion. As ano has already acknowledged 30m is way too high. Whereinthehell do you live that 30m is even remotely credible?
char writes:
I have been watching/listening to CNBC over the past 2 years. If there is one thing I am absolutely convinced of, its that the so called experts have absolutely no clue what they are talking about most of the time. They follow trends. If the market is up, they think it will always go up. If the market is down, they think it will always go down.
If there is one thing I am absolutely convinced of, its that the so called experts have absolutely no clue what they are talking about most of the time.
If you have been thinking for the past 2 years that CNBC is out to inform you, well....
Anonymous writes :
...For Werner to pretend Germany uses no natural gas is laughable...
...I thought it was fairly important you should not be ignorant of something so important...
Ok, so I did just my homework and calculated what percentage of Germanys energy consumtion comes from russian gas?
What do you think is the number ?
(P.S. I used figuers from "Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe, Referat für Schriftenpublikationen und Öffentlichkeitsarbeit").
From the Dec 2008 numbers, if you assume there are 15 milllion illegal immigrants in the labor force
and as a group their unemployment rate is X%, then the real U3 unemployment rate becomes Y%:
100% - 15.4%
80% - 13.6%
50% - 10.9%
20% - 8.3%
10% - 7.4%
5% - 7%
Werner you probably don't even speak much German at all
It was a pain for me to type out the words your copied and pasted:
Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, Department of written publications and public relations
Would you like to switch into French for some reason?
From Brad Setser
- The ongoing reallocation of central bank portfolios toward short-term Treasuries. That reallocation has been huge. Central banks held $$276.8b of t-bills at the end of September. They hold $427.2b at the end of December. And judging from the Feds custodial data there is every reason to think that total rose in December. Foreign central bank demand for safe and liquid assets rose at the same time as private demand rose...
The ongoing retreat of private capital from global markets, or what I previously called the reversal of financial globalization. Foreign investors sold $56b of US long-term securities in November, and another $36.6b in October...
- As a result, the US trade deficit is now effectively financed by short-term inflows
This is big deal. If sustained, this trend will result in huge upward pressure on the long-term part of the yield curve.
Jobs?
We got no stinking jobs!
Someday this war's gonna end...
I'm sorry, there must be some mistake. That said something about Google.
wow
Your fired.
TRACY, Calif. -- The financial crisis has caused a lot of withdrawals at the public library.
A few years ago, public libraries were being written off as goners. The Internet had made them irrelevant, the argument went. But libraries across the country are reporting jumps in attendance of as much as 65% over the past year, as newly unemployed people flock to branches to fill out résumés and scan ads for job listings.
Other recession-weary patrons are turning to libraries for cheap entertainment -- killing time with the free computers, video rentals and, of course, books.
Main Street's white washed windows
and vacant stores
seems like there aint nobody
wants to come down here no more
They're closing down the textile mill
cross the railroad tracks
foreman says "these jobs are going boys
and they aint coming back"
Looking for a place? - here's an abandoned Russian nuclear-powered lighthouse.
English Russia » Abandoned Russian Polar Nuclear Lighthouses
"Tis but a scratch."
CR, any updates planned?
I feel like
a lucky man who's made the grade.
Still employed (thank glod)
I figure I got 2 months tops. Scary time to be in construction in SoCal.
pleeeeeese Boss I jus gotta keep workin cuz I ozes a ton a dough to the company sto
WTF. Things have gotta get better. Enough already.
Remember those quaint days of yore when the financial system was under duress but the "real economy" was just peachy? That was four months ago ...
Productivity is going SHOOT THROUGH THE ROOF!
or not, which makes you wonder about GDP
"I'm sure I missed a few ..."
Pfff...what's a few grand between friends.
BTW I hear Jobs is getting cut too.
(DUCKS!)
Nostrovia,
Werner; from last thread
According to Eurostat, Germany imported 3.0 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas in 2004. The largest source of natural gas imports was Russia (46 percent), followed by Norway (33 percent) and the Netherlands (23 percent).
Germany consumed 3.4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in 2004. 3rd highest in the world
For Werner to pretend Germany uses no natural gas is laughable. E.ON has had to use lignite to keep the German miners employed, because they've passed peak anthracite
I thought it was fairly important you should not be ignorant of something so important
There's never been a better time to fire employees, even if you're making money (BC/BS)
"Productivity is going SHOOT THROUGH THE ROOF!"
Yet another mustard seed, I guess. Pity the fields are salted.
An advertising project I'm involved with has been approached by 2 media groups to sell inventory for us while we can also sell on our own. I figure this way we don't actually have to pay anybody if we don't want to a maybe can steal a few when we decide to go large.
Woo-hoo, jobless recovery here we come!!
"Other recession-weary patrons are turning to libraries for cheap entertainment -- killing time with the free computers, video rentals and, of course, books."
Oh crap, that is how a revolution starts.
"Dude, check out this Marx stuff. Some serious shit."
"Yeah, awesome! Hoocodanode!"
Is it possible some people within these companies are using the economy as an excuse to get rid of their dead weight?
BUT...the economy will be turning around in the second half of this year.
At least that's what the experts and financial advisors are saying.
There's never been a better time to fire employees
Charles Kiting | 01.16.09 - 5:58 pm | #
I had a buddy who suggested the same thing. Now is a great time to get rid of all those employees that might have had lawsuits with them had they been pushed out a year ago....
Liquidate! Liquidate! Liquidate!
and give the bankers your money!
and give the bankers your money!
The Bad News Bears | 01.16.09 - 5:59 pm | #
Or the state of CA.....
My company is planning layoffs (San Francisco). Like dryfly aluded to previously they are saying it will be primarily in non-client facing areas. Tech and business. The latest rumor is 50% of all tech and a smaller but significant number in business. We are 12k large and probably 2k of that is in tech.
I suppose this is not a good time to ask the boss for a raise? or vacation time off?
what's with the mustard seed theme? I missed the genesis of this joke.
Sebastian, are you still calling for November being the max threshold for monthly layoffs?
"I suppose this is not a good time to ask the boss for a raise? or vacation time off?"
Oh, you'll be getting time off alright, just not the vacation type.
Is it possible some people within these companies are using the economy as an excuse to get rid of their dead weight?
No, none of these report the firing of CEOs.
God, I laugh at the rationalizations soon-to-be-fired people tell themselves to prove they're "special."
CR, I note that most of these layoffs represent pretty high reductions by percentage of headcount. Ouch.
How do you get people to buy TVs, medical insurance, AMD PCs, rent cars, buy radio and web ads, and buy newspapers?
Give more money to insolvent banks, of course.
Work is over-rated... they'll be poor but happier.
Rollin rollin rollin! keep those doggies rollin! rawhide!
YouTube -
Is it possible some people within these companies are using the economy as an excuse to get rid of their dead weight?
Yep and a lot of people are jumping through silly hoops to prove they aren't dead weight.
Sebastian, are you still calling for November being the max threshold for monthly layoffs?
Pissed Off In California | 01.16.09 - 6:02 pm | #
Tell me he didnt say that please. Every unemployment graph CR puts up shows that the unemployment rate increase thru the recession and peaks after its over. I dont really want to go here but is someone honestly suggesting we're thru this... Anyone? If so email me at you'refaakinnutz at gmail dot com!
LOL!
Outside in the cold distance
A wildcat did growl
Two riders were approaching,
And the wind began to howl
Hey !
(solo)
Gary,
Mathew 17:20 Each soul decides in every time.
Matthew 17:20 He replied, "Because you have so little faith. I tell you the truth, if you have faith as small as a mustard seed, you can say to this mountain, 'Move from here to there' and it will move. Nothing will be impossible for you."
"Give more money to insolvent banks, of course."
Who then park the money at the Fed.
POIC,
"non-client facing areas. Tech and business. The latest rumor is 50% of all tech"
That'll work well until the auto pilot crashes during that big sales presentation. Nothing screams buy! to a client like a sales goof trying to make his glowing box thingy "go".
Nostrovia,
A must-see for everyone on this blog. Sorry if it was posted under some other thread.
And please, give generously.
YouTube - Sponsor an Executive
"nades writes:
Sebastian, are you still calling for November being the max threshold for monthly layoffs?
Pissed Off In California | 01.16.09 - 6:02 pm | #
Tell me he didnt say that please. Every unemployment graph CR puts up shows that the unemployment rate increase thru the recession and peaks after its over. I dont really want to go here but is someone honestly suggesting we're thru this... Anyone? If so email me at you'refaakinnutz at gmail dot com!
LOL!"
Oh yes he did. No joke; I think he was using the Wright-B unemployment model.
Go long Monster.com
snark, not spamming
Speed writes:
How do you get people to buy TVs, medical insurance, AMD PCs, rent cars, buy radio and web ads, and buy newspapers?
Give more money to insolvent banks, of course.
They'll start lending money any day now.
Any... day... now...
Back in the IT bust there was a guy on the Monster IT Job Search Forum who kept a running total - it was quite impressive. Monster finally shit canned that forum format to purge the system of 'negativity' - after all only happy drones find jobs in the corporate beehive. I got a feeling this F/U will make dotbomb look like a pregame warm up.
I hope you aren't taking about Microsoft Pissed as they have started to approach the laid-off R&D folks from Apple.
Working for MS was anathma to this group as recently as Oct 08 but now they're just pissed. Any brand loyalty, which aapl had in spades, going the way of the dodo.
nah, looked at the % of tech so no it's not. Tell me it's chevron and I'll die laughing.
"Comrade Misean is Dope writes:
POIC,
"non-client facing areas. Tech and business. The latest rumor is 50% of all tech"
That'll work well until the auto pilot crashes during that big sales presentation. Nothing screams buy! to a client like a sales goof trying to make his glowing box thingy "go"."
My group is most likely safe. 6 people to develop and support probably 10 applications. No more meat on the bone in our department.
I actually offered to take the package. It's a real sweet one. Unfortunately they won't let me take one for the team.
Ahh popeye, that explains it. I'm not big on fiction.
Just kidding, friends, just kidding. i love fiction.
35,000 Circuit City
11,000 GE Capital
4,000 Hetrz
2,000 Cessna
1,500 WellPoint
1,200 ConocoPhillips
1,100 AMD
1,000 Blue Shield
About 57,000 layoff announcements today.. and that is just in the +1000 layoff list. I have a feeling that if you added up all the layoffs (especially the sub 1000 layoffs) announced today we would cross 100k - for one day..
We cannot afford many days like today.
Each well paid job lost = 2-4 less well payed jobs lost.
San Diego Union Tribune cutting back:
SAN DIEGO Citing a dramatic decline in advertising revenue, The San Diego Union-Tribune announced cost-cutting measures Friday that include a temporary furlough for hourly employees.
Hourly workers at the newspaper, its Web site, SignOnSanDiego.com, and its other publications will be required to take one to two days off without pay in February and March, depending on their pay grade, Union-Tribune CEO and President Gene Bell said in an internal announcement.
Managers will also see reductions in their pay during those two months.
I don't understand the unemployment problem. They said if they approved the $700B Tarp, Joe and Janes pay check would be good. Tarp about out of money and the paychecks are no good. Main street scammed again!
And please, give generously.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q...h? v=qDC0qcf0kzE
Markel | 01.16.09 - 6:06 pm | #
ROTFLOL!!!!!
Lost my sh*t on that one bro! Great post!!!!
"Working for MS was anathma to this group as recently as Oct 08 but now they're just pissed. Any brand loyalty, which aapl had in spades, going the way of the dodo.
nah, looked at the % of tech so no it's not. Tell me it's chevron and I'll die laughing."
No, I did the smart thing and decided to get out of biotech about 5 years ago. Too unstable an area for a software engineer. I moved into a big financial firm for the "stability".
Hahaha, stability my ass.
So NOW it is Swedish plan finally with bad bank. Seriously,
"Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing after they have exhausted all other possibilities."
THIS IS SERIOUSLY GOOD - NO ONE CAN AFFORD TO MISS IT. {MARKEL DID IT - we should probably start an investigation}
YouTube - Sponsor an Executive
this F/U will make dotbomb look like a pregame warm up
This is the continuation of the dotbomb, deficit spending, Keynesian orgy that has been going on for decades.
We'll see if Obama can kick the can further down the road. Then it'll all be okay.
POIC,
"I actually offered to take the package. It's a real sweet one. Unfortunately they won't let me take one for the team."
Hmmmmm...I was wondering why those manacles showed up in my office last week...
Nostrovia,
CR, Times are tough. Perhaps you should put 2 of your 10 fingers on unspecified, unpaid leave. First, you should write them up a couple of bad perforamce reports, though, to save yourself a lawsuit.
What if Bush gave a farewell to his presidency and no one paid attention?
Apparently, that is exactly what happened last night.
Personally, I think Karl Rove should be drug out into the street and shot Mussolini style. But, that's just me.
Perhaps we are all to blame for these turn of events. We willfully allowed our government to act on our behalf in a way which has caused permanent damage to this country. And by "we" I mean all the fucking idiots who voted for Bush in 2004.
Russian cucumber picker:
English Russia » Cucumber Pickers of Belarus
"i cant believe the news today,
i cant close my eyes and make it go away..."
-u2 sunday bloody sunday
paulson and pals propose a commode bank.
i want to flush my bad bets there too!
"Paulson, Bair Advance Idea of `Aggregator Bank' to Remove Illiquid Assets"
Paulson, Bair Raise ‘Aggregator Bank’ for Toxic Debt (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Is Werner getting into the martinis as well?!
Gee, Putin just went to the EU and visited one head of state, who was it and what country did he visit...?
Germany is Russia's biggest foreign customer for natural gas.
I have been watching/listening to CNBC over the past 2 years. If there is one thing I am absolutely convinced of, its that the so called experts have absolutely no clue what they are talking about most of the time. They follow trends. If the market is up, they think it will always go up. If the market is down, they think it will always go down.
Absolute fucking idiots...
Rahm = Rove
"we" I mean all the fucking idiots who voted for Bush in 2004.
I am sure all the wall street banksters, mortgage fraudsters, wall street crooks were Republicans. At least you got the "WE" part right.
Pissed Off In California,
You underestimate the vileness and stupidity of management. They will kill the company if means they can have one more bonus or one more paycheck.
//My group is most likely safe. 6 people to develop and support probably 10 applications. No more meat on the bone in our department.//
"Paulson, Bair Advance Idea of `Aggregator Bank' to Remove Illiquid Assets"
otis de la burnt foot hertz | 01.16.09 - 6:12 pm | #
How can one person have so many stuipd ideas?
love how it's "illiquid" and "hard to value"......
How about liquid and valued correctly we just don't like the inputs.
But the term aggregator is just code for dump site.
Love the english language....from the financial perspective.
Ciao
MS
According to my BLS handbook, more people not working for a large company mean more people can start their own small businesses.
So the announcements today alone make for maybe 30,000 new small businesses and 90,000 new small business jobs
```````````
lucifer:
About 57,000 layoff announcements today.. and that is just in the +1000 layoff list. I have a feeling that if you added up all the layoffs (especially the sub 1000 layoffs) announced today we would cross 100k - for one day..
We cannot afford many days like today.
Question:
Are the bankers who are taking our tax dollars for the bailout still making very large salaries?
Layoffs --> lower sales, fewer major purchases, more foreclosures, lower tax revenues, etc.. --> more layoffs
Isn't this fun?
I have been watching/listening to CNBC over the past 2 years.
I am sorry that you wasted your time like that.
In Ukraine, fear of being a resurgent Russia's next target - The New York Times
"For 17 years now, several former satellites and republics of the Soviet Union have cherished their democracies, all made possible by the simple premise that the days of Russian dominance were over.
The events in Georgia over the past week have made them rethink that idea. Poland announced Thursday that it had reached a deal with Washington to base American missile interceptors on its territory, after months of talks. But then a Russian general went so far as to say that Poland might draw Russian nuclear retaliation, sending new shudders through the region.
The sense of alarm may be greatest here in Ukraine. Since the Orange Revolution began in 2004, bringing the pro-Western Viktor Yushchenko to power after widespread protests, Ukraine has been a thorn in Moscow's side, though perhaps not as sharp as the outspoken Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili."
"Pissed Off In California,
You underestimate the vileness and stupidity of management. They will kill the company if means they can have one more bonus or one more paycheck."
Actually not at my company. One of very few financial companies still in the black. They are actually quite well run.
Thanks, I found it on Angry Bear, so I can't take credit.
It is, however, a perfect commentary not only on BoA but on Hank's bad bank proposal.
When I saw that video, I laughed, I cried--literally.
"Are the bankers who are taking our tax dollars for the bailout still making very large salaries?"
Of course! (1) By all means, we don't want to insult the financial sector when we need them most; and (2) now more than ever we need the "best and brightest" to solve the problems they created.
>
Layoffs --> lower sales, fewer major purchases, more foreclosures, lower tax revenues, etc.. --> more layoffs
Isn't this fun?
Groundhogday | 01.16.09 - 6:16 pm | #
Not fun, but at least its easy to follow / obvious.....
ades,
"How can one person have so many stuipd ideas?"
EZ...they're all the same one in different wrapping paper...
Nostrovia,
They will kill the company if means they can have one more bonus
I think that's Greenspan's flaw in the functioning structure that defines how the world works.
This is what realy surprized me today. The depth, bigness, huge numbers, wow...so many cuts.
And we are 16 days into 09.
At this rate we will have 40% unemploymnet by December.
don't keep us in suspense Pissed!
"They are actually quite well run."
That would be quite the oxymoron if it is who I think it is....
Ciao
MS
This is the continuation of the dotbomb, deficit spending, Keynesian orgy that has been going on for decades.
Speed | 01.16.09 - 6:11 pm | #
NPR this morning had someone opining that the jury on the effectiveness of Keynesian policies is still out thus confirming that it is impossible to prove a negative.
otis de la burnt foot hertz writes:
"i cant believe the news today,
i cant close my eyes and make it go away..."
.... listen closely.... listen with your head open ...
The Beatles - A Day in the Life - WITH LYRICS!
Misean - good point.
Watch it if you haven't yet.
YouTube -
? v=qDC0qcf0kzE
How'd I screw that up?
YouTube - Sponsor an Executive
"don't keep us in suspense Pissed!
"They are actually quite well run.""
I don't want to name names. Sorry, but they've already been in the news over the last month for a smaller group of layoffs. Plus they're well run so that should make it even easier to figure out
Rob Dawg,
"NPR this morning had someone opining that the jury on the effectiveness of Keynesian policies is still out thus confirming that it is impossible to prove a negative."
Who's doing that. Keynsianism IS stoopid. Prove it isn't.
;P
Knurd!
Nostrovia,
Markel writes:
Watch it if you haven't yet.
YouTube -
? v=qDC0qcf0kzE
ROFL!
"Germany is Russia's biggest foreign customer for natural gas."
So what, it is a good deal, both parties have to behave now, mutual co-dependency. Russians are learning this game of capitalism while Americans seem to be unlearning...
I don't want to name names.
Pissed Off In California | 01.16.09 - 6:21 pm | #
Thats gross....
I hope you are right.. I also remember ex-employees who said Merck would never have mass layoffs (as late as 2005)
//Actually not at my company. One of very few financial companies still in the black. They are actually quite well run.
Pissed Off In California | 01.16.09 - 6:17 pm | #//
Government Considers New Bailout Plans
WSJ * JANUARY 16, 2009, 5:58 P.M. ET
WASHINGTON -- The U.S. government, recognizing that the banking crisis is larger than originally thought, is laying the groundwork for a second phase of its rescue attempt with plans to tackle the toxic assets gumming up the system.
Officials at the Treasury, Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., in consultation with the incoming Obama administration, are discussing a range of options, according to government and transition officials. One plan would create a government bank that would buy up bad assets. Another would standardize efforts to have the ...
U.S. Plots New Phase in Banking Bailout - WSJ.com
I heard on NPR this morning too about Keynes being an absolute prick, and gay, not that there's anything wrong with that.
Pfizer laying off. How much longer until Viagra goes generic?
Simmer down Speed, you're trying to provoke too many arguments for selfish reasons and not for advancing the discussion
"a government bank that would buy up bad assets"
I'v got two seven year old mountian bikes I'm trying to get rig of. I'll let them for 60M each, k?
Here is the link Markel was trying to give you { jeeesh, shouldn't I be either sober or be getting paid ?? }
YouTube - ? v=qDC0qcf0kzE
Worth your time, imho.
Elvis,
Viagra causes less deaths per 100,000 patients/ yr than OTC aspirin.
This daily reminder of the U.S. collapse is simply noise. Check back in a year to see if there's been a change. In the meantime, as the Criminal-In-Command ordered: Be PatRIOTic and SHOP.
Yours In Communism,
Kilgore Trout
drat, I did no better. No. Next time I return - the link will work.
Pfizer laying off. How much longer until Viagra goes generic?
Elvis
Why do you think lots of people will have lots of free time to....
"Viagra causes less deaths per 100,000 patients/ yr than OTC aspirin.
lucifer"
But more divorces.
Last thought on Keynes: "He did not like Jews," Davidson said. "He didn't like the French. He really found Americans to be stupid he didn't think they had any right to have as much power as they had in the world. And he really did not care for the working class at all." (NPR, 1/16/2009)
The Repo Code from Repo Man:
YouTube - The Repo Code
supafly73 | 01.16.09 - 6:22 pm | #
Last thread Werner said something to the effect that Germany didn't depend on Russia for gas and their electric grid was supported by his hot air generation...or something
What is this, old school day?
EngineerJim, Emma Anne, query_tool, Sebastian, Kilgore Trout...
If anyone has a Banker sighting, let me know.
Nostrovia,
Do you think that 55 year old guys want to bang their aging bitchy 50-ish wife?
//But more divorces.
Elvis | 01.16.09 - 6:27 pm | #//
"Last thought on Keynes: "He did not like Jews," Davidson said. "He didn't like the French. He really found Americans to be stupid he didn't think they had any right to have as much power as they had in the world. And he really did not care for the working class at all." (NPR, 1/16/2009)
Speed"
Well, at least, he didn't like the French...
Well, at least, he didn't like the French...
Elvis | 01.16.09 - 6:29 pm | #
Touche!
Long dry road!
"Separately, the FDIC board announced that it will soon propose rule changes to its Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program to extend the maturity of the guarantee from three to up to 10 years where the (BAC's) debt is supported by collateral and the issuance supports new consumer lending"
WATCH THIS - DO WHAT I SAY - NOW ... it's markel's fault:
YouTube - Sponsor an Executive
Speed,
""He didn't like the French. He really found Americans to be stupid "
He liked the Nazi's, and the Fascist...and thought Stalin was onto something...
Nostrovia,
What is this, old school day?
Comrade Misean is Dope | 01.16.09 - 6:29 pm | #
I've been on and off recently so not much sample space, but I saw Turbo, vader and Red_Pill last week... Classics!
Barack Obama has only one answer to the trillions in public funds wasted in the past year and a half: he pushes Double or Nothing. America has become a country that has in its entirety adopted the philosophy and lifestyle that have established its darkest (thats why they need the bright lights) and seediest corners: Las Vegas and Atlantic City. For all the talk of redemption and salvation, there is only one real religion that governs the US: the dual deity of money and gambling. As many who've walked the shadier alleys in Vegas can tell you, that is the sort of belief system that you can rely on to deliver you into bankruptcy. Its one religion that holds the promise of a certain outcome. And it's all America has left.
AE
ades,
Kewl...I always liked those three.
Well off to Fry's to spend some cash while they're still liquidating inventory.
Nostrovia,
There's never been a better time to hire or fire employees.
... to the serious posters here, I'd like to say thanks for teaching me and thanks for allowing me to participate.
Just wanted to announce that I took the plunge today!
Yep, that's right.
After 9.5 years with Bank of America, I started dating a Credit Union on the side.
Opened up my account today. May not switch fully over, but at the current time it seems like a good idea to have a "backup" account at a local institution. Not so much because I worry about BofA blowing up (I think Uncle Ben will create more invisible "Fed Assets" to prop up the big banks), but because I woke up to the fact that those Wall Street clowns were pissing away my deposit money when they made those idiotic loans that have blown up in their faces.
I figure, if they're going to lose my money without telling me, and then ask me to pay 'em back with my tax money, I ain't gonna give 'em no more of my money!
(Okay, so the local bankers may not be much better, but with a Credit Union, at least you get to watch the financials, and most of the money gets lent locally. The money may still end up in the hands of deadbeats, but they're LOCAL deadbeats, if you know what I mean? I can send my cousin Vinnie out to bust some kneecaps when I want my loans repaid!!
)
That, plus the rate of return on a federally-insured money market account is competitive with the Vanguard/Fidelity prime money market rates, and much higher than the Treasury money market rates, so I can get my "safe cash" insured and earning a bit more to boot...
And now, back to Bank Failure Fridays...
miller explains the weirdness goin on:
YouTube - miller explains the wierdness goin on
Another one for the list:
ConocoPhillips to Eliminate About 1,300 Jobs
Wisdom Speaker,
Them girls with the bandana's
Yep ...
adornosghost writes:
Barack Obama has only one answer to the trillions in public funds wasted in the past year and a half: he pushes Double or Nothing. America has become a country that has in its entirety adopted the philosophy and lifestyle that have established its darkest (thats why they need the bright lights) and seediest corners: Las Vegas and Atlantic City. For all the talk of redemption and salvation, there is only one real religion that governs the US: the dual deity of money and gambling. As many who've walked the shadier alleys in Vegas can tell you, that is the sort of belief system that you can rely on to deliver you into bankruptcy. Its one religion that holds the promise of a certain outcome. And it's all America has left.
The Automatic Earth
AE
Investigate BNSF
4% layoff will be a bit over 1,300 employees...I expect the ranks of contractors across the energy industry to take the brunt of the first wave.
ConocoPhillips to Take $34 Billion Charges, Cut Staff (Update1)
By Edward Klump
Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- ConocoPhillips, the third-largest U.S. oil company, said it will cut 4 percent of its workforce and write down an estimated $34 billion of previous acquisitions including OAO Lukoil, after energy prices plunged.
The company plans to reduce the value of its equity investment in Russias Lukoil by $7.3 billion, Houston-based ConocoPhillips said today in a statement. Other asset writedowns totaling $1.3 billion will be recorded.
The biggest writedown, a $25.4 billion impairment charge in the oil and gas business, amounts to 87 percent of all the goodwill the company had on its balance sheet as of Sept. 30, according to Bloomberg data.
ConocoPhillips to Take $34 Billion Charges, Cut Staff (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Investigate BNSF
RockyR
Why?
citizen energyecon,
Did you hear me say thanks ? Don't answer, but thanks again.
Pissed Off In California asked: "Sebastian, are you still calling for November being the max threshold for monthly layoffs?"
Yup, although I'm certain that there will be more total layoffs and the unemployment rate will continue to rise. In the last recession, for example, the maximum one-month extreme was October, 2001, but monthly net job losses continued until August, 2003. As missing-in-action Jas Jain has often opined, employment is a heavily-lagged indicator.
Sebastia
"Looking for a place? - here's an abandoned Russian nuclear-powered lighthouse."
What a fantastic site. No country in the world can produce a mess so magnificent.
The 'English' of the text reminds me of a publication I used to work on.
In other news, don't buy gold just yet:
UBS Agrees to Sell Commodities Units to Barclays
NEW YORK -- UBS AG has agreed to sell its oil, base metals and U.S. power and gas businesses, further concentrating commodity trading among major banking firms.
Popeye,
Pour a 'tini for me - [clink]
What is this, old school day?
Comrade Misean is Dope | 01.16.09 - 6:29 pm | #
Where's Tennis_8?
"Yup, although I'm certain that there will be more total layoffs and the unemployment rate will continue to rise. In the last recession, for example, the maximum one-month extreme was October, 2001, but monthly net job losses continued until August, 2003. As missing-in-action Jas Jain has often opined, employment is a heavily-lagged indicator.
Sebastian"
ookay, I don't know it's looking pretty bad this month if you ask me.
Viagra causes less deaths per 100,000 patients/ yr than OTC aspirin.
lucifer | 01.16.09 - 6:26 pm
Have you no respect for the blind?
Or the people who can't leave the house b/c they are suffering from an erection that lasts more than 4 hours?
The Government Accountability Office (GAO), Congress' investigative watchdog, has found that "a majority of America's largest publicly traded companies and the U.S. government's largest federal contractors use multiple subsidiaries in offshore tax havens to conduct business and avoid paying U.S. taxes," writes Carol D. Leonnig for The Washington Post.
The culprits include some corporate giants who are receiving countless millions in bailout money, Leonnig notes.
Democratic Sens. Byron Dorgan and Carl Levin, who released the report, say that companies such as Citigroup and Morgan Stanley have set up "hundreds of tax haven subsidiaries" in such inconspicuous nations as Luxembourg, Mauritius and the Cayman Islands.
Others figuring prominently in the corporate tax-haven list are such varied firms as 3M, American Express, Caterpillar, Cisco, ConocoPhillips, Dell, Dow Chemical, Exxon Mobil, FedEx, GM, Kraft, Merck, Pepsi, Pfizer, Procter & Gamble, Wachovia, and Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation, which tallied a whopping 782 foreign subsidiaries in 14 countries.
Among the federal contractors listed are Boeing, General Electric, Goodyear, Hewlett-Packard, Honeywell, IBM, ITT, Motorola, Oracle, and Xerox.
"This report shows that some of our country's largest companies and federal contractors, many of which are household names, continue to use offshore tax havens to avoid paying their fair share of taxes," says Sen. Dorgan (D-ND). "[S]ome of those companies have even received emergency economic funds from the government.
"[W]e should take action to shut down these tax dodgers," Dorgan says, "and we will be introducing legislation to do just that."
I finally located Paulson and Bernanke's blueprints for the TARP and Fed policies of bank bailouts.
David Cerny - uplne oficialni stranka
Damn it. Seb you're right. I cant intergrate so good. (the total unemplyment rate can increase while the monthly lay-offs decrease.... (foot in mouth)
Where's Tennis_8?
Gatsby | 01.16.09 - 6:39 pm | #
Whither the tennis_8 big reveal . . . we'll probably see the Buckaroo Banzai sequel first.
km4 | 01.16.09 - 6:41 pm | #
TAKE THE MARKET ON THAT! /snark
lol
Buckaroo Banzai vs. the World Crime League!
You'all are going to be fired for wasting company time posting to financial blogs!, tell me, how that helps your company and ultimately YOU!?
"Ukraine has been a thorn in Moscow's side, though perhaps not as sharp as the outspoken Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili."
Georgia is the shrimp cocktail. Ukraine is the main course.
"Where's Tennis_8?"
Somewhere fancy, hanging around and fartin' through silk. . . Or was that someone else?
"tell me, how that helps your company and ultimately YOU!?
NaziBoss"
Keeps me out of trouble by keeping me away from the pretty little real estate agents who need rides to their office.
My group is most likely safe. 6 people to develop and support probably 10 applications. No more meat on the bone in our department.
never underestimate the power of corporate short-sightedness and willing suspension of disbelief.
after 10 1/2 years at my company, my last day is 1/30. in little over 1 year, i've watched my department go from 26 to 11 to 7 to replaced by 3 guys in Mumbai because another department managed to convince management that it was capable of taking over our existing process and supporting reporting needs for all of our clients in the support division.
the fact that my department existed in the first place specifically because they were unable to meet the reporting needs for the support division didn't matter. why should anyone be skeptical of one department's assurances regarding its ability to assume the responsibilities of another department when the dissolution of the latter department guarantees job security for the former.
the outcome has been predictable. the other department has been running away from their promises of support as fast as they can. with no opposition, why shouldn't they?
oh well, as long as my severance checks don't bounce, i'm long past caring about what happens after i leave.
tell me, how that helps your company and ultimately YOU!?
NaziBoss | 01.16.09 - 6:43 pm | #
hey had my exec's read CR we wouldnt be in our current predicament... then again if they figured out who 'nades' was I wouldnt have a job either. I guess either way I'm screwed....
Buckaroo Banzai vs. the World Crime League!
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 01.16.09 - 6:43 pm | #
Coming soon to a theater near you!
Even Geraldo couldn't top that underdelivery. But tennis_8 . . . tennis_8 comes close.
Gatsby writes:
"Main Street's white washed windows
and vacant stores
seems like there aint nobody
wants to come down here no more
They're closing down the textile mill
cross the railroad tracks
foreman says "these jobs are going boys
and they aint coming back"
Gotta love McMurtry. I've been too long in the wasteland...
BUT...the economy will be turning around in the second half of this year.
At least that's what the experts and financial advisors are saying.
Dean | 01.16.09 - 5:59 pm | #
Didn't they say that last year too?
@km4 - thanks for the reminder that with all-Democrats, all-the-time, Uncle Sam is looking at some significant mitigation to that structural deficit!
On the other hand, I expect corporate profits to be on the low side for a while. If you tax-shelter no profits, how much in taxes can they collect by closing loopholes?
More seriously, if you expect corporate profits to trend back to the low end of their historical range (as a fraction of GDP), and you assume a P/E of 10, and a reasonable GDP contraction based on the decline in consumer spending and construction, then you can get S&P 500 target prices below 500 without breaking any rules of arithmetic...
Details of a back-of-the-envelope estimate here:
posted some commentary
Donald Trump writes:
Your fired.
Donald Trump | 01.16.09 - 5:51 pm | #
That's how Trump ("the short-fingered vulgarian") might spell it.
Gotta love McMurtry. I've been too long in the wasteland...
Curmudgeon | 01.16.09 - 6:46 pm | #
McMurtry? i thought that was a Bruce original.
I heard on NPR this morning too about Keynes being an absolute prick......, not that there's anything wrong with that.
Speed | 01.16.09 - 6:23 pm | #
Why is there not something wrong with that?
I think they should tax blogging comments.
I'm trying to layoff the booze.. does that count?
White house to shed 40 jobs, chimp.
"McMurtry? i thought that was a Bruce original.
Gary"
I don't remember Gus saying that in Lonesome Dove.
Didn't they say that last year too?
bobn | Homepage | 01.16.09 - 6:46 pm | #
One of the all time classics of sh!tty business forecasting, aka "the hockeystick forecast."
Double digit growth, as far as the eye can see, always starting a few quarters out...
popeye,
i listened with my head open like you said. then i had an uncontrollable urge to listen to it backwards.
Gary writes:
Gotta love McMurtry. I've been too long in the wasteland...
Curmudgeon | 01.16.09 - 6:46 pm | #
McMurtry? i thought that was a Bruce original
Gary...my bad...you're right. I was thinking about a McMurtry (sp) song on his latest CD that has very similar sentiments, and words. It's after five, and you know...I have been too long in the wasteland.
"I'm trying to layoff the booze.. does that count?
Gubbmint Cheese"
It only counts if you don't offset it by increasing your crack intake.
Why?
Elvis | 01.16.09 - 6:37 pm | #
To find more layoffs, of course!
MC writes:
"Give more money to insolvent banks, of course."
Who then park the money at the Fed.
Where it now earns interest! Profit!
Buckaroo Banzai vs. the World Crime League!
\t
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 01.16.09 - 6:43 pm | #
Ve regret to inform you zat Buckaroo has joined the World Crime League and changed hiz name to Hank.
Pleaze to refer any questions to the Tri-Lateral Comission c/o John Dangleberries.
The Bailout Game | Home
I see those BNSF workers around. Good guys. Bummer.
NOW, I KNOW I'M NEW HERE - AND I'VE ALREADY ENDORSED A PRIOR VIDEO.
`However - I know you far better than you think I do - this is a video you need to watch - think in terms of ruby Tuesday ..... and trust me watch the whole thing - Tuesday - so good to be....
YouTube - Withdrawal
You'all are going to be fired for wasting company time posting to financial blogs!, tell me, how that helps your company and ultimately YOU!?
NaziBoss | 01.16.09 - 6:43 pm | #
I'm now probably the most well informed person in my co. about this mess. My input may someday prove useful to them...
How many banks are going to cash out tonight?
the fact that my department existed in the first place specifically because they were unable to meet the reporting needs for the support division didn't matter.
Soylent Green is Sheeple | 01.16.09 - 6:45 pm | #
So you've essentially spent the last "how long" with a bullseye one your back?
Markel writes:
...A must-see for everyone on this blog...
And I thought it was about squirrels.
But is was just as god as suirrels, thanks.
Btw. why did it say at the end "THE DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY 1789" ? Is america in deep dodo since then already?
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.16.09 - 6:51 pm | #
+1!
"Big Boo-tay! Boo-tay!" BLAM!
Boeing Seattle to lay off in Feb.
Mostly Engineers, six figure salaries....
the fact that my department existed in the first place specifically because they were unable to meet the reporting needs for the support division didn't matter.
Soylent Green is Sheeple | 01.16.09 - 6:45 pm | #
So you've essentially spent the last "how long" with a bullseye one your back?
\t xxxxx | \t \t \t \t01.16.09 - 6:54 pm | #
xxxxx | 01.16.09 - 6:54 pm | #
BTW, condolences on your job loss. The axe is about to fall here in the not too distant future.
Pissed Off In California said: "...ookay, I don't know it's looking pretty bad this month if you ask me."
Well, it is a recession, dude.
But recessions seem to accelerate downward into a sort of climax crash where everything looks like it's going to Hell at the same time...then it abruptly stops and the clean-up begins.
Sebastia
est. january job losses to be reported, IMHO: 965,000
Werner | 01.16.09 - 6:55 pm | #
Only in the long run Werner, only in the long run...
>If there is one thing I am absolutely convinced of, its that the so called experts have absolutely no clue what they are talking about most of the time.
Amen, Char, Amen. And if there's one thing I'm convinced of, it's that most of Obama's "change" rhetoric was BS. He has a golden opportunity to really change things. But he is too green and too scared, so already he is listening to the "experts."
Some day, people will wake up and figure it out.
Like maybe next Tuesday.
I got a lot shorter this week.
For your viewing. Lonesome Dove is probably the best mini series ever made.
YouTube - Lonesome Dove: Some Old Men Get Respect
.more repo man
"the more you drive the less intelligent you are"
YouTube - miller explains the wierdness goin on
@Sebastian: "then it abruptly stops and the clean-up begins"
Except when it's 1929 or 1930, and then it just gets worse and worse for a few years until there's damn near a revolution... And then the cleanup takes a decade and involves millions of human sacrifices...
Predator Corporations voraciously eating at the public trough and avoiding paying taxes. Crime does pay and pay and pay..... Taxingmatter.com: "Eighty-three of the 100 largest publicly traded U.S. companies, including Citigroup Inc., PepsiCo Inc., and General Motors Inc., had units in multiple tax havens in 2007, a government study said. Among those companies were some recipients of federal bailout money.
The Government Accountability Office said in a report dated Dec. 18 and released today [Large U.S. Corporations and Federal Contractors with Subsidiaries in Jurisdictions Listed as Tax Havens] by two senators that four companies -- Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Bank of America Inc., and News Corp., had more than 100 subsidiaries in low-tax or no-tax countries......
"I got a lot shorter this week.
rich"
I wouldn't tell that to the ladies.
@km4 - thanks for the reminder that with all-Democrats, all-the-time, Uncle Sam is looking at some significant mitigation to that structural deficit!
On the other hand, I expect corporate profits to be on the low side for a while. If you tax-shelter no profits, how much in taxes can they collect by closing loopholes?
Wisdom Speaker | Homepage | 01.16.09 - 6:47 pm | #
On the other hand... I'll cite an external resource. This is a report done in 2003 which shows that total corporate federal tax revenues have declined as both a share of total federal revenues AND as a portion of GDP since the 1950s. In the 1950s, corp taxes were 25.7% of total revenues and 4.8% of GDP. In the 1960s this went to ~21.3% and 3.8% respectively. In the 1970s those numbers became 15.2% and 2.7%. For the 1980s we got 9.3% and 1.7%. For the 1990s it went up a touch to 10.5% and 2.0%, while in this past administration the numbers went almost back to the 1980s with 9.6% and 2.7%.
Bluntly, in general corporations have been paying less share of the federal load at the same time they've been shifting the share of wages from workers to executives. I think it needs fixed, and hope it really happens.
citizen energyecon writes:
...Germany is Russia's biggest foreign customer for natural gas...
Oh, not allied anymore ?
I guess I will sleep better now.
So we should add to the clawback rules of the TARP that corporations accepting federal bailouts will be required to shut down all overseas tax havens!
How are all these people going to pay their mortgage?
km4 writes:
The Government Accountability Office (GAO), Congress' investigative watchdog, has found that "a majority of America's largest publicly traded companies and the U.S. government's largest federal contractors use multiple subsidiaries in offshore tax havens to conduct business and avoid paying U.S. taxes,"
Bastards
Poor people gonna rise up and take whats's theirs
Be careful where you park when ice-fishing:
English Russia » The Last Fishing
they're not
How are all these people going to pay their mortgage?
Anonymous | 01.16.09 - 7:01 pm | #
or rent
Plantronics layed of 15% of work force today and Seagate layed of 3000 on Wednesday!
"How are all these people going to pay their mortgage?
Anonymous"
Crime.
Popeye enjoy your posts. [ting]
Bud (to Otto): Are you a commie?
Otto (to Bud): I ain't no commie.
Bud: Good, I don't want no commies in my car. No christians either.
(Ever notice the repo men all have beer names: Oly, Bud, Lite, Miller)
the cleanup takes a decade and involves millions of human sacrifices...
Let us hope that most of them are in Washington D.C.
.
Bluntly, in general corporations have been paying less share of the federal load at the same time they've been shifting the share of wages from workers to executives. I think it needs fixed, and hope it really happens.
Kirk Spencer | 01.16.09 - 7:00 pm
Bingo !
According to a GAO study released in oct 2008 most corporations pay no federal tax. This is quite an amazing statement - we are told relentlessly that we need to reduce taxes for corporations (they are stated at 35%) so they can create more jobs (overseas ahem). While I think it might be a truth for small businesses, it seems the bigger fish have gamed the system to perfection. Something to think about the next time we are told "we need to cut taxes for corporations to remain competitive." Remember, folks, the % of GDP that is enjoyed by corporations versus workers has reached levels not seen since the 1920s (i.e. the workers in the country are seeing the lowest percentage of profits since right before the Great Depression) That's what happens when the politicians are bought and paid for... (Emphasis mine, and my comments in italics.)
Most U.S. and foreign corporations doing business in the United States avoid paying any federal income taxes, despite trillions of dollars worth of sales.
More here
High U.S. Corporate Taxes Are a Myth -- Seeking Alpha
the road potholes are sure to reach Russian proportions.
English Russia » Holes in Moscow
You'all are going to be fired for wasting company time posting to financial blogs!, tell me, how that helps your company and ultimately YOU!?
NaziBoss | 01.16.09 - 6:43 pm | #
Has helped me make some serious chops calling financial sector insolvency back in May of 2008...but that don't mean squat when the sh!t and blood fly.
Will we see capitulation on the BLS birth/death model?
Like many things that could sustain themselves during the boom times, I think we can expect to see all the dirt buried under the rug
Popeye: as per your request in the last thread, here are my thoughts today on derivatives in general and credit in particular.
Notwithstanding what some folks thought I was saying, I do believe that derivatives are a threat to the stability of the financial markets. I just don't think that the threat is as great as some here would say and I certainly don't think that the threat should be measured by throwing out huge notional numbers.
The scary area in credit comes from companies that sold protection without paying margin. AIG fell into this category -- since they were triple A they could get away with selling protection without backing it up with actual cash. There were other insurance companies doing the same thing and this is an area to watch out for.
A lot of people are afraid that hedge funds are selling protection without adequate capital reserves. This may be true but personally I don't worry about this. The dealers are deathly afraid of losing money to hedge funds and they build all kinds of protections into their contracts to prevent this from happening. In addition to margin, dealers put provisions in swap agreements that say that if the hedge fund's net asset value drops below a certain value that the dealers can liquidate -- while there is still cash left. They get these provisions even against the biggest best credit hedge funds. And the small hedge funds cannot sell protection at all without putting cash upfront.
I guess I'm blathering on so I'll have to save other discussions for the future when you are sober. But what I just said above applies to derivatives other than credit as well.
By the way, I am not a CDS trader. Even worse, I am a derivatives lawyer. Not all CDS traders are that bad although some are. Others are just regular folk trying to protect themselves from losing money if their counterparties blow up.
How are all these people going to pay their mortgage?
\t
Anonymous | 01.16.09 - 7:01 pm | #
They'll live under a TARP and get paid to do so.
Werner | 01.16.09 - 7:00 pm | #
Who was the only EU country and leader that Putin called on again?
[crickets]
Don't forget John Gruden, coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
+1
I was just saying this on Wednesday:
Outsider writes:
All of a sudden I'm hearing about layoffs everytime I turn around.
I have a feeling this sucker's goin down fast.
Can someone please tell me what Plan B is again?
Outsider | 01.14.09 - 6:27 pm | #
Women's intuition.
Sebastian,
I am new here and lack standing. I missed seeing your prior sins, but I respect every man who recognizes life is replete with reassessments.
If you trade from honest, you can only win.
OT: Cali Woes
Some interesting history and facts:
Shared Sacrifice: Unlock prisons' hold on budget - Sacramento Opinion - Sacramento Editorial | Sacramento Bee
From the Guardian.
Growing stocks of unsold cars around the world - 10 picture slideshow
Bastards
Poor people gonna rise up and take whats's theirs
Johnny Mustardseed | 01.16.09 - 7:01 pm |
Johnny,
Blame Congress. They wrote the tax regs. If there is a tax loophole, the company has to take it. Why? Two big reasons. First, your competitors all will and if you want to compete, you have to do it as well. Second, you would be subject to shareholder lawsuits for breach of fiduciary duty to maximize return.
Popeye writes:
.... listen closely.... listen with your head open ...
Honestly, I loved the original/unadulterated Sgt. Pepper's better. But revived nice memories!
For your viewing. Lonesome Dove is probably the best mini series ever made.
Elvis | 01.16.09 - 6:59 pm | #
Meh. I'd go with Roots. "Your name is TOBY!"
That mini-series changed the world.
Loudocracy,
By the way, I am not a CDS trader. Even worse, I am a derivatives lawyer.
Loudocracy,
Obviously, had Shakespeare conceived of the possibility of a derivative, you guys would have been first to the scaffold.
Does anybody else wish that Germany goes into Depression just so that Werner shuts up with his grating criticism of the US ?
Not good karma, but still. We all that this country is fcuked, why don't you tone it down a little?
Thank Glod we are a peaceful nation!
Washington Mobilizes 42,500-Strong Security Force for Inaugural
Washington Mobilizes 42,500-Strong Security Force for Inaugural - Bloomberg.com
And in other news, on the fashion front all fashionistas will be wearing this on the big O day:
http://www.sisterloveradio.com/images/ls_shirt.jpg
Nationalize everything. Establish constitutional right to income, health care and education.
2008 Net Birth/Death Adjustment, not seasonally adjusted (in thousands)
Supersector\tJan\tFeb\tMar\tApr\tMay\tJun\tJul\tAug\tSep\tOct\tNov\tDec
Total Nonfarm Birth/Death Adjustment
-378\t135\t142\t267\t217\t177\t4\t125\t42\t71\t30\t72
904,000 net jobs added by fudge factor in 2008
Fake Jobs
Also in the last year or so, about 166,000 jobs were cut in the auto industry. Should hit 300,000 to 400,000 without accounting for bankruptcies, just the labor needed to meet supply without considering inventory buildup
Never a better time to be assetless probably
So you've essentially spent the last "how long" with a bullseye one your back?
one way or another? years.
in normal times, the opposition of upper management in the support division was enough to fend off the wolves, since they correctly interpreted that a takeover of support reporting by the other department would have a meaningful and deleterious impact on the quality of the reporting delivered to support.
these days though ...
thx for the condolences, hopefully it'll be a relatively soft landing, my ex-boss contacted me last week about a possible opening working for her at her new company ... we'll see.
The GS crew and all IBers just stuck a long kebob skewer through the globe and have and are now shaking all the loose change out of it.
I truly think that the global financial infrastructure is nearly complete in its breakdown. Only funny money prop saves by USA gov't is keeping all from the full comprehension of that.
Mostly Engineers, six figure salaries....
girlbear | 01.16.09 - 6:56 pm | #
That is OK. I'm sure they have some five figure H-B's to fill in.
Is popeye that ol' gimlet sukin' quaker day-trader crowing about his daily winnings again?
Smedley Butler - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
they are saying it will be primarily in non-client facing areas
Pissed Off In California | 01.16.09 - 6:01 pm | #
Can that be translated as: "They are firing everyone who to actually knows how to keep the beast's central nervous system running, but keeping those who can bullshit and stroke the client while the beast staggers off into the tar pit."
Key questions: How many $1.5 million dollar per year Senior Vice Presidents and Consultants did they hire to fire all those workers? How much are they going to pay said workers when they hire them back as consultants.
Sebastian, are you still calling for November being the max threshold for monthly layoffs?
Pissed Off In California | 01.16.09 - 6:02 pm | #
November of which year?
If you assume the fudge factor jobs the BLS invented for 2008 are all gone now, but they haven't counted them yet (they only subtracted in December, but it the failures will stretch further back so this is still on the optimistic side)
U-3 would be +0.6 or 7.8%
Bank Failure!
FDIC: Failed Bank Information - Bank Closing Information for National Bank of Commerce, Berkeley, IL
NorkaWest
Funny that you mention it, but consulting is booming. Something to do with in-house nepotism rendering their management impotent
Office Space anyone, Bob and Bob?
And I'll bet those tech CEO bastards cry to Congress again this year that they need more H1B visas.
drink !!
$430.9 million assets.
Press Release Here:
FDIC: Press Releases - PR-5-2009 1/16/2009
Bank Failure!
Wisdom Speaker | Homepage | 01.16.09 - 7:22 pm | #
Winner!
Buiter: Time to take the banks into full public ownership
FT.com | Willem Buiter's Maverecon | Time to take the banks into full public ownership
I heard on NPR this morning too about Keynes being an absolute prick
Speed | 01.16.09 - 6:23 pm | #
I heard it more like he told people things they did not want to hear. Things like "a downturn in housing prices would collapse tha whole house of cards." I suspect that he was less of a prick than someone who called em' as he saw em'.
Ben Frank'll Tank Bernanke writes:
Is popeye that ol' gimlet sukin' quaker day-trader crowing about his daily winnings again?
I am what I am. I am no more nor any less than what I am. For every day the market is open, I will face you without quater. Greenbacks only.
$97.1 million hit to FDIC. Pocket change after BofA and the "Subsidy Cost" of TARPing Wall Street...
In fact, you could do these little banks every day all year long and it would still be less than 2/3 of the Subsidy Cost.
(Of course, that's what the FDIC may be doing later in the year...)
Nothing from NCUA so far today on credit union failures.
drink !!
bANK fAILURE | 01.16.09 - 7:24 pm | #
Is it Friday already?
thanks Wisdom Seeker
here are the highlights:
As of January 7, 2009, National Commerce Bank had total assets of $430.9 million and total deposits of $402.1 million. In addition to assuming all of the failed bank's deposits, Republic Bank agreed to purchase approximately $366.6 million in assets at a discount of $44.9 million. The FDIC will retain the remaining assets for later disposition.
```````
I'll take failed banks for $1200 Alex.
When are $430.9 million in assets not worth $430.9 million?
Crap, boy have i learned something from you bloggers , this whole time i thought it was kinsey economic theory ...you know based on f'ing each other...
my bad resume your normal life, i'll fix on Monday
"By the way, I am not a CDS trader. Even worse, I am a derivatives lawyer. Not all CDS traders are that bad although some are. Others are just regular folk trying to protect themselves from losing money if their counterparties blow up."
Derivatives, CDO, CDS economics are all great in theory but have been proven to unequivocly fail in the real world, just like Keynsian economics It has happened again and again and again. And every time we get a blowup that almost brings down the world financial system (LTCM, latin america debt crisis and today) I hear that they are fine if used the correct way.
And yet time and time and time again they aren't used the proper way.
Why do you think CDS were called CDS and not insurance? So that you weren't legally required to hold reserves against loss!
At some point someone needs to come out and say that our society is not structured in a way that proves that we can use these financial devises properly, ethicly and maturely.
The way this mess is unfolding and the way it is being handled (sweeping under the rugs, financial companies STILL fighting against forcing CDS onto an exchange) proves it.
How many fricking times do we need to almost bring the world down to accept this simple fact.
Our society and financial companies are built on greed, short-term memories and deploying OPM.
For every poster like the one above talking about using derivatives in the proper way there are 10 other traders attempting to find any loop-hole available to squeeze an extra dime of profits out of their trade.
If you want to have derivatives and CDOs then fine:
a) regulate the trade of them
b) create an OTC system for transparency.
c) any profits that any trader makes of the above vehicles should go into a long-term account and be paid back minus losses that result over time from the trade.
Popeye | 01.16.09 - 7:25 pm | #
And 'tinis after!
Maybe the FDIC is now seizing the good banks to put $$$ back into the treasury.
"Even worse, I am a derivatives lawyer"
Loudocracy,
I thought we were having a knowledge-free debate the other night. What's next, you paid for law school by making book?
Growing stocks of unsold cars around the world |
Business |
guardian.co.uk
Now it feels like Friday
Now it feels like Friday
Barley | 01.16.09 - 7:28 pm | #
All there for the taking.
;^)
Something to do with in-house nepotism rendering their management impotent
Boy, is that ever true. I've often thought there would be money in circumventing the "Information Priesthood" and going directly to management, at least for some companies.
I interviewed at one major company which had...
wait for it...
written their own application server.
That's almost like writing your own operating system these days. But I didn't have mid-management's ear and frankly, it's not worth the time and trouble to change it unless the company is already in major trouble.
I see a lot of that.
.
As of January 7, 2009, National Commerce Bank had total assets of $430.9 million and total deposits of $402.1 million. In addition to assuming all of the failed bank's deposits, Republic Bank agreed to purchase approximately $366.6 million in assets at a discount of $44.9 million. The FDIC will retain the remaining assets for later disposition.
The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund will be $97.1 million. Republic Bank's acquisition of all deposits was the "least costly" resolution for the FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund compared to alternatives. National Bank of Commerce is the first bank to fail in the nation this year. The last bank to be closed in the state was Meridian Bank, Eldred, on October 10, 2008.
```````
Sorry with full juciness now.
They are letting the zombie banks grow larger before taking them down now.
Real value of $290 million versus book assets of $430 million
Real value of 33% under book value
And I'll bet those tech CEO bastards cry to Congress again this year that they need more H1B visas.
Uncle Ar | 01.16.09 - 7:23 pm | #
You know, your probably right. But some of those guys want to get re-elected and the usual, "no qulified applicants," or "look at all of these open positons for .net programmers with 6 years exp," are going to fly this year. Even the "Americans, won't do these jobs," is going to be a hard sell at this point. One hope that the public will realize that it was all a buch of BS the whole time.
My company of 90 employees laid of 25 of them today.
Sometimes when you are typing fast with comments coming a mile a second you say things that come out sounding a bit stupid. In any event I am not entirely knowledge free even if sometimes it sounds like it.
Also I agree with what Pissed Off In CA says about reforming CDS. FWIW I am one of the people working on reforming the system. So don't piss me off!!!
Can someone please tell me what Plan B is again?
Outsider | 01.14.09 - 6:27 pm | #
Women's intuition.
Outsider | 01.16.09 - 7:09 pm |
As long as it's not from Barbra Boxer and Diane Feinstien....
To quote Barbara Boxer from this week "We are not potted plants!"
I'm glad she clarified that...
Well, it is a recession, dude.
But recessions seem to accelerate downward into a sort of climax crash where everything looks like it's going to Hell at the same time...then it abruptly stops and the clean-up begins.
Sebastian | 01.16.09 - 6:57 pm | #
Actually, I think we're in a depression, dude.:) That said I can't be as definitive as when I ran the NBER numbers by you saying we were in a recession. So let me say why I THINK depression.
First, I recognize there is no definitive definition of depression. After the Great Depression, the US just renamed them - prior to 1935 any downturn was a depression, after 1935 they're recessions. Depression was reserved for "really bad recession," but nobody's put a hard label on it. The generally accepted definition is probably as right as "two quarters of declining GDP" is for recession - that is, it's probably wrong - but it'll have to do. So, depression is a decline in GDP of 10% or more AND/OR a recession that lasts more than three years (12 quarters).
3Q08 gave us 0.5% decline. I am in agreement with Dirk that we will probably see 4Q08 come in between -5.5 and -6% after revisions are done. At the beginning of this quarter we have shipping at a standstill (ships and trucks), we're seeing huge layoffs (as the message to which this is attached demonstrates). Manufacturer's index indicators are that it's going to show a plunge, and both retail and wholesale sales are following suit. Barring a near-miracle, I don't see it turning around before the end of March. Bluntly, I agree with the FOMC report that said we'd have negative GDP AT LEAST through the end of 2Q09. Even if 1Q09 is only half as steep as I anticipate 4Q08 being it puts us on the edge of the magic 10%, and 2Q09 going negative at all goes past that point.
Yes, I think we are already in a depression, though meeting the definition will have to wait till the end of April (for the 1Q report to come out.)
How far down we go and how long it lasts depends in no small part on what the president and congress between them do in regard to the second stimulus plan. This one will maybe slow the drop, but it misses some actions I consider absolutely critical to reverse the plunge. I can see a potential for 50% decline in GDP, unemployment (U3) approaching 20%, housing 60% off peak and total equity declining to 65% of peak, all over the next two to three years. That's the freefall result of insisting on cutting all expenses and going to pure balanced budget.
The corrective action... Actually, mp (or maybe conjure) listed several things that were right a while back, though they pretty much just dealth with financial institutions. The predominate corrective action is getting the money running, and that can't go through crashed financial institutions. Instead, the government needs to sponsor jobs - either direct or indirect, but it needs to get the money into the hands of the people themselves. My preferred route would be through providing either direct or guaranteed loans to businesses that contracted to do a variety of projects SUCH AS rail improvements; broadband wire distribution; road improvements; capital improvements of schools and libraries; alternate energy conversions of houses (on/off-grid switching); and things like that. Yes, I think grants for competitive research on several things would also be good - the holy grail battery would be nice, though other alternate energy sources would be good as well. But all that is EXAMPLE. At base: the banks aren't able to push the money, but the people want to use the money. To get this thing rolling, then, the "trick" is to skip the middleman and get it directly from government to individual.
Yes, this will result in inflation. It beats depression. Later - say three to five years later - we revalue. Everything drops a zero, for example. Done right, it works. Done wrong, it's Mexico of a couple decades ago.
Now, do I think the government will do this? .... I dunno. If they do, I think it will work. If they don't, I AM sure of what will happen - already said. Am I sure of the depression? Yes.
Of course, I could be wrong.
A short YouTube, a bit OT.
Madoff Recovery Plan
j marston writes:
"Even worse, I am a derivatives lawyer"
Loudocracy,
I thought we were having a knowledge-free debate the other night. What's next, you paid for law school by making book?
marston is researching my autobiography. pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.
Have the Seven Veils offer Ms. Boxer a job. It would be a pleasant change from her present one.
US Population=over 300 million. These people are a tiny drop in the bucket.
Hal
only 150 million tax payers though. so that includes part timers
Well then these layoffs must be at least 25% of the tax paying population, right?
I can't believe how depressing "Lonesome Dove" turned out to be.
THEY ALL DIED! The squirrel girl and the child and Tommy Lee and the slutty wife and all. Murdered in gruesome ways.
And I thought it was gonna be like an adult version of "Little House on the Prairie".
Interwoven - 70 layoffs
Bank Failure Friday - National Bank of Commerce, Berkeley, IL
National Bank of Commerce, Berkeley, Illinois, was closed today by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was named receiver.
A couple of posters had mentioned this in the past, but this is the national bank closed by the OCC in quite a while. I think that they were kicking the can until Jan 21. Fitting that the first NA they closed was from Illinois.
Is Obama America's Kerensky?
Hal
30 million illegal immigrants. Good chunk of whom used to work in construction and restaurants
They're the last in first out unemployment buffer
They're the last in first out unemployment buffer
Anonymous | 01.16.09 - 7:38 pm | #
and they won't be around to pay state sales taxes
30 million illegal immigrants. Good chunk of whom used to work in construction and restaurants
Anonymous | 01.16.09 - 7:38 pm | #
Puleeeze. Thirty million? BS call.
The Kinsey Institute for Research in Sex, Gender, and Reproduction
would have been funnier had i paasted this...
my mistake
Estimates of illegal immigrants in the US are about half that at 15 million, and not all of them are working jobs.
INS estimates 7 million, but every other group range from 12 to 20 millio
For your viewing. Lonesome Dove is probably the best mini series ever made.
Elvis
Nice, but I vote for the Wire.
Internet to Obama: 'Pass the joint'
President-elect Barack Obama has promised change. And there's one change that internet-happy Americans want more than another other. In an age of crippling recession, skyrocketing unemployment, and the looming threat environmental armageddon, their primary request is this: Pass the joint, yo
Internet to Obama: 'Pass the joint' • The Register
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0516/csmimg/p2apopup.gif
Estimates of illegal immigrants, prior to the 00s boom
Not just a code word for Mexicans. There are illegal immigrants pollacks and hungarians that just keep quiet. There are others who entered legally and just overstayed
CR: Here's more, Motorola to cut 4000 jobs.
Motorola To Slash 4,000 Jobs
Layoffs at Clear Channel? Who did they cut, the robots?
No evidence workers leaving U.S. - Sacramento News - Local and Breaking Sacramento News | Sacramento Bee
No evidence workers leaving U.S.
Nice, but I vote for the Wire.
fried | 01.16.09 - 7:42 pm | #
That is a series not mini. Besides Deadwood is better.
We've toyed with the idea of a seven-figure job loss in a month, and if and when it would come. Given the rate of layoffs today, it might come now, in January; February at the latest. I'd been thinking March, like an optimist.
High Court to Rule on State Inquiries on Banks
The case arose from a 2005 inquiry by Eliot L. Spitzer, then New Yorks attorney general, into possible race discrimination in the real estate lending of Citigroup, HSBC, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo....
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, part of the Treasury Department, sued to stop the inquiry. The offices regulations, promulgated under the National Bank Act, say that only it may examine banks records or enforce compliance with federal or state laws.
January
Bob Dobbs | Homepage | 01.16.09 - 7:46 pm | #
Jan or not until next year I think.
Puleeeze. Thirty million? BS call.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.16.09 - 7:39 pm | #
Where do you live? Totally beliveable here.
@Kirk Spence 7:33
"Even if 1Q09 is only half as steep as I anticipate 4Q08 being it puts us on the edge of the magic 10%, and 2Q09 going negative at all goes past that point."
You forgot that the quarterly reports are annualized numbers. Actual GDP contraction thus far is less than 2%. e.g. (0.5% + 5.5%)/4 = 1.5%
"marston is researching my autobiography"
Popeye's Boswell.
It is an honor.
Anonymous writes:
I can't believe how depressing "Lonesome Dove" turned out to be.
Anon - yeah, McMurtry is not a guy to read for cheering you up. That said, his books are still worth reading. I guess the take home message is "everybody dies - get used to it."
What happens when malls lose anchor tenants:
English Russia » First Russian Mall
Puleeeze. Thirty million? BS call.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.16.09 - 7:39 pm | #
Where do you live? Totally beliveable here.
Blackhalo | 01.16.09 - 7:48 pm | #
I live in Ventura County. When I say 30m is not credible you had best take that opinion under consideraqtion. As ano has already acknowledged 30m is way too high. Whereinthehell do you live that 30m is even remotely credible?
j marston writes:
"marston is researching my autobiography"
Popeye's Boswell.
It is an honor.
wow, it's good to hear one's place.... thanks
Today Marketplace did a piece on 'zombie banks' and japan's lost decade.
I think NPR staff have been reading this blog. (Alex Bloomberg from This American Life was first of course).
Following up to previous comment -- So to get a real depression (10% GDP contraction), things have to get a lot worse than they have so far.
On the flip side, that means if you think things are bad now, you ain't seen much yet.
BTW, in the old days the downward leg was called the "recession" and the bottom was the "depression". Which makes sense if you look at a chart.
char writes:
I have been watching/listening to CNBC over the past 2 years. If there is one thing I am absolutely convinced of, its that the so called experts have absolutely no clue what they are talking about most of the time. They follow trends. If the market is up, they think it will always go up. If the market is down, they think it will always go down.
Absolute fucking idiots...
char | 01.16.09 - 6:14 pm |
I respectfully disagree. If they think the market is up, they think it will always go up. If the market is down: DISCO!
If anyone has a Banker sighting, let me know.
The Bankers have left the building (with the money).
If there is one thing I am absolutely convinced of, its that the so called experts have absolutely no clue what they are talking about most of the time.
If you have been thinking for the past 2 years that CNBC is out to inform you, well....
If there's one thing I'm convinced of it is that there is a new thread.
" Does anybody else wish that Germany goes into Depression just so that Werner shuts up"
Vic,
You'd enjoy Werner much more if you watched the German economy more closely. Lots of amusement in store for you.
I live in TX. 30 million illegals sounds bogus to me, too.
Anonymous writes :
...For Werner to pretend Germany uses no natural gas is laughable...
...I thought it was fairly important you should not be ignorant of something so important...
Ok, so I did just my homework and calculated what percentage of Germanys energy consumtion comes from russian gas?
What do you think is the number ?
(P.S. I used figuers from "Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe, Referat für Schriftenpublikationen und Öffentlichkeitsarbeit").
From the Dec 2008 numbers, if you assume there are 15 milllion illegal immigrants in the labor force
and as a group their unemployment rate is X%, then the real U3 unemployment rate becomes Y%:
100% - 15.4%
80% - 13.6%
50% - 10.9%
20% - 8.3%
10% - 7.4%
5% - 7%
Layoffs at Clear Channel? Who did they cut, the robots?
Bob Dobbs | Homepage | 01.16.09 - 7:44 pm
The Dixie Chicks? Oops, already did that a few years back.
....hey just heard the latest "NEWS FLASH"....it was just reported that it is 10 below zero in hell.
Werner you probably don't even speak much German at all
It was a pain for me to type out the words your copied and pasted:
Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, Department of written publications and public relations
Would you like to switch into French for some reason?
From Brad Setser
- The ongoing reallocation of central bank portfolios toward short-term Treasuries. That reallocation has been huge. Central banks held $$276.8b of t-bills at the end of September. They hold $427.2b at the end of December. And judging from the Feds custodial data there is every reason to think that total rose in December. Foreign central bank demand for safe and liquid assets rose at the same time as private demand rose...
The ongoing retreat of private capital from global markets, or what I previously called the reversal of financial globalization. Foreign investors sold $56b of US long-term securities in November, and another $36.6b in October...
- As a result, the US trade deficit is now effectively financed by short-term inflows
This is big deal. If sustained, this trend will result in huge upward pressure on the long-term part of the yield curve.
Anonymous writes:
...Werner you probably don't even speak much German at all...
Doch, doch, ich denke schon dass ich ganz gut deutsch (und schwäbich) spreche. Sollen wir die Diskussion in deutsch fortsetzen ?
(und ein "handel" wäre vielleicht auch ganz nützlich, es gibt ja mehrere Anonymouses)
I'm excited, I took four years of German 25 years ago and actually understood what Werner just wrote...
re: Anonymous
P.S. I did not want to pain you with the translation, but this an "official" document, i.e. from an german government agency.
So, what do you think is the number ?
Comrade Kristina writes:
...I'm excited, I took four years of German 25 years ago and actually understood...
Wow, you must have an excellent memory.
Meine Gratulation!