I'm glad you picked up on this WaPo article. Another glaring omission is any mention of the role Congress and its creatures, Freddie, Fannie, FHA, Federal Home Loan Banks, etc., etc., may have played in this mess. Not to mention the well-intentioned CRA and its thousands of compliance minions in the federal financial institution supervisory agencies carrying out long and expensive annual compliance examinations. Also, to get approval for mergers and acquisitions, banks had to prove they were making bad (i.e., non-conforming) mortgage loans.
Not to mention the well-intentioned CRA and its thousands of compliance minions JohnR(VA) | 01.17.09 - 5:23 pm | #
No this article completely exonerates CRA - RTFA:
a Washington Post analysis of available data show that the foreclosure crisis knows no class or income boundaries. Many borrowers ensnared in the evolving mortgage mess do not fit neatly into the stereotypes that surfaced by early 2007 when delinquency rates shot up. They don't have subprime loans, the lending industry's jargon for the higher-rate mortgages made to borrowers with shaky credit or without enough cash for a down payment.
Anonymous, the iPhone font issue is very frustrating and I've not found a solution. I just reload the page for each refresh and scroll down. Hopefully the new commenting system will not have this problem.
When Larry, Currly and I had a conference call on the subject of how to regulate the next generation of the mortgage business. We came up with a earth shattering idea that is revolutionary and quit smart if I say. Do not lend money to people who have NO job, NO assets, NO 20% down payment, NO possible way of paying the mortgage back. Require reasonable leverage with back up for default.
Excuse for a minute. I have been informed that this has been tried with great success. Dam! We thought we were on to something!
The local area here, which is far from CA, FL NV and there bubbly areas, the pre-foreclosures and bank owned have just recently begun to outnumber all other homes for sale.
It may turn out that every recent (last several years) motgage goes underwater. What then? I think that as early as '04 many were aware that the "recovery" from the '01 recession was largely due to real estate related jobs.
bobn
That's just it, the width of the page is fixed in the mobile browser and thus you can't zoom. Haloscan is really a weird creature
Uffish Thought,
Thanks for sharing. I too scroll to the bottom and then read comments with the phone sideways which actually makes the haloscan page wider and thus font larger. You just only get about 5 lines at a time
bobn, it's really a text wrap issue. When first opened the text is large and wraps to fit the screen. A refresh looses the text wrap and subsequently the text becomes small to fit the screen. Thanks.
BOBN :
It works , thanks a bunch, I had been stuck with ever shrinking fonts for days... Being computer challenged I had to get special glasses from the drugstore. It works, it works !!!!
Isn't the "profit" currently returned to the Treasury Department? Hamilton seems to think so: Econbrowser archi..._reserve_1.html
Anonymous
~~~~~
I'm talking about the profit the banks make with credit underwritten by the tax payer. Currently banks can print money up to 10 times their capital yet we the tax payer must borrow our own money at interest?
Not to mention the well-intentioned CRA JohnR(VA) | 01.17.09 - 5:23 pm | #
That horse really needs no more beating. CRA didn't cause dodgy loans to be made. The dodgy loans were available, and if an accredited minority (you'd be astounded at who fits that definition) qualified for one - all the better. Fannie, Freddie, FHA, VA, whatever - if you could find a loan product for a 'minority', it helped your CRA numbers. 'Minorities' were not granted loans if they didn't qualify for them. Of course, 'qualification' took on a whole new meaning in that era.
CRA is NOT the boogey-man. Please - give it a rest.
Moe Howard....That's a real big problem right now, get your head out of the air...If one has a job it's being threatened, if one had 20% of 150k it would be lots smarter to rent, and if one has asset's why rock the boat by putting them in harms way.
You see, I'm a lender of last resort and had to take my lofty idea of a customer's history determined on who/what /how he would pay...You must see all model's in lending has been short to hell and you are on your own, sink or swim unless you are in with Paulson.
Lucifer,
No mention of ungrateful Indian immigrants whose sole stated goal is to milk the system while advocating genocide in their spare time until their motherland threatens to nuke the USA and seizes all of its wealth? :0
Sorry but I couldn't resist tossing your crap right back on to you
In 2005 and 2006, more than half the homes sold in Southern California were in Riverside and neighboring San Bernardino County, pumping thousands of new jobs into the regional economy, said John Husing, an independent economist. "Real estate became what gold was to the gold mining towns," he said. "Everyone's job was tied to the mine, whether they realized it or not."
Yes, and easily greater than 50% of those jobs were worked by illegal aliens. My eyes bled when I saw it.
Growing foreclosures ... Rob Dawg, if you're out there, didn't you say that 18 months after foreclosures peak is the time to buy? \t norma | 01.17.09 - 5:30 pm | #
Yes. Any reason to reconsider? Clarifying; this is about investing in real estate, not finding a place to live. I am ready. I expect California ratios to dip below 100x even if I won't touch those dogs.
Don't you just love these 3-day weekends? Will there be a bank holiday next week? Will there be a circuit breaker set off in the markets? Will Citi be "nationalized"? Will the 8.3 hit California? Inquiring minds want to know!
In my area it's been job loss. Last night I took the long way around my town getting home and had no idea there was so many empty houses going to hell in a hand basket.
My State has never had a bubble of any kind, lot's of poor uneducated people that have lived on the edge for generations and now must be taken care of by who, since Taxes collected have/will cliff dive and The Goverment is pappy of last resort...Do I see tent cities?
Possible new slant on the "Death Tax"? - Cash-strapped city governments in Japan are searching through the ashes of cremated residents to extract precious metals, pocketing the proceeds from the recycled gold and silver, it has emerged.
The city of Nagoya alone has reportedly collected 12 kg of gold, silver, platinum and palladium in 2007 from teeth and bones, worth more than Y10 million.
The practice has been uncovered by the Asahi newspaper, which claims relatives of the dead are unaware of their loved ones' remains are being "mined" for reuseable materials.
"What happens to the bodies after cremation varies from place to place, but in general it is left up to the individual crematorium," said Fumio Nakajima, a spokesman for the Tokyo Metropolitan Government.
"The ashes and most of the bones are placed in the urn and given to the family, although some bones are too big and it is then up to the crematorium to dispose of them," he said. "It's the same with teeth.
"The metal is no longer considered to be a part of the person and we are just reusing and recycling the material," he said.
Tokyo collected some 700 grams of gold, 500 grams of palladium and 1.9 kg of silver from cremated bodies in 2007, adding Y3.2 million to the city's bank account. The city also banked around Y90,000 in coins left as offering inside the coffins.
The practice has apparently been common for the last 20 years, although some cities have stopped after relatives of the dead found out and complained that it was disrespectful to profit from the deceased.
"If one has a job it's being threatened, if one had 20% of 150k it would be lots smarter to rent,"
As a lender you should know some do not need a job and have money. Also you missed my point of the stupid that has been unleashed on us the responsible. A little commonsense, discipline and care for others would have prevented this whole mess. Greed has it's price of the inconvenient reality.
It's an auction house in Scottsdale that specializes in really cool cars (antiques, hot rods, restored muscle cars, and this 1957 corvette convertible with a rag top...oh my it was pretty).
The auctions are televised on the Speed Network.
Yeah, the husband and I were watching last night. Looked to us like prices were lower than in previous auctions.
Most of my intense dislike is reserved for Canucks. Intact I have repeatedly stated the USA is the best place for non-white immigrants, bar none!
However I am not enamoured by hypocrites, irrespective of their color. I have often seen a tendency by a certain type of person to blame "others" for their problems, regardless of reality and their own actions. The MSM often encourages such blame shifting.
"Anyone else watching the Barrett-Jackson Auction on Speed tv?
Tonight is the big test"
crispy&cole | Homepage | 01.17.09 - 5:59 pm | #
The big block Shelby 'vert that sold was down 40% or so over last years prices. The deal I saw so far was the Foose '33 that sold for 35K?. the freaking paint cost that...
If we can start a program for bad banks good banks, why not good house and bad house.
Good house - you can deduct interest, sell it, add to it, and do what ever you like.
Bad house - The Feds take back the paper at cuttent price levels (investors get dinged) and remortgage at the current levels but you have to stay until you have achieved a 20% equity stake and if you go bk the debt follows you.
"The big block Shelby 'vert that sold was down 40% or so over last years prices. The deal I saw so far was the Foose '33 that sold for 35K?. the freaking paint cost that"
Hurts when you have to sell during a buyers market
After being pretty much converted to a "Pessimistic Joe" ---> also my new nick here on the CR blog, I thought I shared a link from Dr. Brett's good stock blog showing that the high price inventory totally blows out right now. This is a clear sign of the low-up of prime and jumbo mortgages to come. As CR states for a long time, the higher-priced areas are now the once to suffer!
We live in Fairfax VA. Not the high dollar section. Yet townhouses were going from 400 to 800k. Houses hit 1M.
There is a McDonalds in a shopping center down from us. It gets its share of homeless from the woods nearby.
I stopped there with my daughter so she could run in. I am sitting in the car watching this early 20's Asian girl who was standing around in front. Nothing unusual in her dress but something was off to me. So I watch casually walk over to an ashtray and pull a nice long cig butt out.
Surprising, but I notice a lot of people butting their cigs and then relighting them later. Not of out of the trash but... So I watch her out of the corner of my eye. She finds a cup that had blown out of the trash and picks it up and sits down. Now she has a cig and the cup as camo for her sitting there.
More fallout from what is begining to blow through the burbs is my guess.
mmckinl writes: ... the banks only pay interest on 1/10th the capital as the rest is legally leveraged.
Can you please explain that?
Regulatory capital ratios for banks are about 7-10% of their book assets (there are different kinds of capital ratios). So book equity (roughly speaking Tier 1 Capital) is about 10% of assets, which makes it roughly 10% of liabilities. Assuming banks have to pay interest for their liabilities, the original poster was correct. Taking into account off-balance sheet exposures makes that factor even greater than 10 (but not 1/10!)
Some aliens, just arrived in earth orbit, might look at our situation and think, "Oh! We had these problems on our planet thousands of years ago and solved them by ..."
Cemex is Mexico's largest cement mfg., but they're global and have heavy US exposure, primarily SW and SE US, poor devils. Company was/is actually on my watchlist... has a LOT of debt shortly due from recent (within the last couple of years) acquisitions.
I have it on 95% intel. that next week is the week. 4 independent sources, one highly placed at the internal corp. finance level.
I know the q4 gross sales vol. was down 60% YOY, and internal AP/AR has slowed to a snails pace since Thursday last week. Senorito On-Topico | 01.17.09 - 6:09 pm | # ----- No problem. Just wanted to make sure you were calling your shot (Since no one responded to your original post) and it was in fact NYMEx.
I have expected that this weekend is going to be a **itstorm, but after 2 banks on Friday and little news today, I'm just wondering if I'm in the eye of the storm or my fears were unfounded. We shall see.
Given my druthers, would take a GT 350 over the GT 500 anyday...maybe not from an "investment" standpoint, but I prefer my cars to handle...not just go like a batouttahell in a straight line
Another story. We went into Starbucks and the guy who took my order commented on my ballcap. He looked to be in his mid 60's. It has the SC state emblem on it.
So he tells me his son is living there. I tell him "Yes, we would like to retire there." He tells us "Before the bottom fell out of everything. That was my plan."
My guess is 3 years ago the idea of taking orders at Starbucks would have been laughable. I would also guess that there is a house somewhere in his story.
Lothar loves the World Rally car series, and especially the Scoobie team. No matter the surface, if the engine's not underwater and the tranny is spinning, you're getting through it. WRC just makes it into a really fun competition to do so!
I am a retired drag racer and follow some of my friends who race very expensive stuff and the stuff for sale is many and very little response on the ads. Lots of Pros with out sponsors dropped at the last minute. Will be an interesting year. Egos and big bucks come and go fast with the economy.
I have not looked at the schedule, but I assume there will be a few Corba's tonight...that is test of the high-end market...maybe a gull-wing or two also.
slack jaw writes:
Some aliens, just arrived in earth orbit, might look at our situation and think, "Oh! We had these problems on our planet thousands of years ago and solved them by ..."
For the thread earlier. Intresting in that he is saying they have days...
Peter Spencer, chief economic advisor to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club said that quantitative easing is needed immediately
By Angela Monaghan and Edmund Conway
Last Updated: 9:56PM GMT 17 Jan 2009
The Government and the Bank of England have got "days not weeks" to take action to revive the economy or face a prolonged depression, one of the UK's leading economists has warned.
Peter Spencer, chief economic advisor to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club said that quantitative easing, whereby the Bank of England would print money to buy assets such as corporate bonds and consumer loans, was needed now.
"My concern is that people don't fully understand the dangers lurking out there. The Bank of England needs to move towards quantitative easing immediately you don't have to wait until you get to zero per cent interest rates. If someone is choking to death you don't think twice about giving them an emergency tracheotomy. There may be dangers, yes, but the alternative is that they die," he said.
To sacrifice an American Central banker, you must use the Central American model: take him to the top of the pyramid, and rip his heart out while it's still beating.
Been to Racingjunk.com?? I kinda like tracking the prices on stuff.
I worked for/with John Keeling of Keeling & Clayton fame for a few years at TWA. Lots of fun and I can make a Holley sing thanks to what he showed me...
mmckinl @6:25 pm: Let's get accounting straight.
Loans are assets, correct. The bank gets paid interest on these loans. The bank funds these loans with liabilities and its own equity (call it capital). Roughly speaking, the bank will have $1 of equity for each $10 in assets (in reality it is closer to $7 or $8, but let's keep things simple).
That means that the other $9 will have to be funded by liabilities, on which the bank has to pay interest.
Hence the original poster said the banks have to pay interest on 9 x capital.
I agree with this statement.
It's not just collectible cars. Sales of high-end and old fine jewelry, modern art & general antiques have all slowed. As for antique glass & burnt dirt, the bottom has dropped out of the market.
EU dairy subsidies? Huh? More!?? They already get more than business class tickets to travel. What now? Electric udder and bollock warmers? Cristal soaked feed? Gold flake vodka winter warmers?
For Immediate Release - January 14, 2009
Greenwich Associates
Canada's Investment Banks Weather The Storm
Wednesday, January 14, 2009 Stamford, CT USA Companies in Canada are benefiting from the fact that the banks upon which they rely for capital markets coverage and mergers & acquisition advisory services are in a much stronger position than those in other markets, according to the results of the most recent Greenwich Associates Canadian Investment Banking Research Study.
"Simply put, Canada's banks are stronger than some of their counterparts in the United States and Europe because they were not as heavily exposed to the mortgage business or structured products," says Toronto-based Greenwich Associates consultant Peter Kane. "Because their balance sheets are not as loaded down with assets of deteriorating value, the banks that Canadian companies rely on for credit, capital markets services and M&A advice have not faced the same capitalization crisis that has brought the U.S. banking system to its knees."
In the United States, the landscape of banks and investment banks available to companies in need of capital and other financial services has been altered by a dramatic series of events, most notably the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the crisis-induced acquisitions of Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch and Wachovia. Also yet to come: Stricter government regulation of the banking sector and the potential for greater Congressional influence over the business practices of banks that participated in the national rescue program.
With Canada having much earlier moved to the universal banking model (i.e., bank-owned dealers), it has not suffered from this type of forced consolidation and historic government intervention. As a result, the competitive landscape of banks servicing Canadian companies has to this point remained relatively unchanged through the crisis.
True. I collect WWII Militaria. Like housing, items would not go for list because people would often offer the seller more than what they originally asked. Not anymore.
Do realtors in California really drive around in cars with their faces and names airbrushed on the side?
mal | 01.17.09 - 6:00 pm | #
I had to go look at the slideshow to see what you saw. Really amazing and no, I've never seen that before. He must think very highly of himself.
One word about Corona, though. My kids, born and raised in the desert, thought Corona was 'the big city' when they each in turn joined The Young Americans.
I look at Racingjunk.com every day and dream my daughter wants to run Top Dragster. I am not going to pay for it so she has to make on her own. I owned a couple of C/ED cars and now my buddy/driver runs F-16 and I get to play with the tune up. 890HP on the motor and 1200HP on the bottle. I remember Keeling & Clayton. I also raced Lions, OCIR and Irwindale. No matter where I go there are car guys!
You're correct. Leverage ratios are based on the underlying capital. And a bank just can't lend money. Banks are financial intermediaries; funds must come from somewhere.
It's not just collectible cars. Sales of high-end and old fine jewelry, modern art & general antiques have all slowed. As for antique glass & burnt dirt, the bottom has dropped out of the market. Paradigm Lost | 01.17.09 - 6:36 pm | # ----- I had posted something two nights ago about the coin/PM market. It is be similar to your comment which is basically: What items people want to buy are not for sell, and what is for sell no one wants to buy.
Sounds like a rather eery precursor to other things coming down this pipe...
I have not looked at the schedule, but I assume there will be a few Corba's tonight...that is test of the high-end market...maybe a gull-wing or two also.
crispy&cole | Homepage | 01.17.09 - 6:27 pm | #
crispy, what time PST, if you please, will the big ones be coming out?
"I also raced Lions, OCIR and Irwindale. No matter where I go there are car guys!"
Economist Moe Howard 3SU | 01.17.09 -
I was stationed at ElToro. The closed OCIR just before I got there. Assholes. I spent a bunch of time at TI after Big Willy got it reopened.
T/D is tough. Not to mention I suck as a driver. I would rather build the car than drive it...
I have plans for a big inch stroker in the Cobra eventually...only a 351/427 right now.
Any banks you know pay interest on checking accounts?
The they lend this money at 30% to credit card holders while taking late fees and service charges for an initial ROI to banks of over 250%.
I think this statement shows how little you know of how modern banking works. Such as the fact that the banks with the largest credit card assets have almost no deposits...
Wisconsin seeks 80 people to fill positions in unemployement offices thruout State. LAM | 01.17.09 - 6:48 pm | # ----- Good catch on future growth opportunities!
Now, what kind of private sector business would be able to take advantage of the growing unemployed--particularly areas that are legit and not VICE-based?
mmckinl - All big banks, including C, BAC, JPM, WFC, heavily depend on wholesale funding.
Also, don't forget that those 30% finance charges on credit cards need to cover losses from those who pay back neither principal not interest.
But if the point you are making is that banks charge higher interest that they themselves have to pay, then 'duh'
At the Local gun shop today and they are packed . I ask the sales girl what happen to the inventory of assault rifles .Told me they where selling like the day after tomorrow was doomsday.Had maybe 5 on the wall .3 moths ago had 35 on the wall and more in the back.
NOVA, they were mexican. I talk to the responding Officer and he thought they from a gang called MS-13.
MS-13. Easy to google. Yes, they are here. Parts of Arlinngton and out in the far burbs. They were tagging here where I live but probably wannabees. Oh, Fairfax High has a few wannabees and family members.
I see lots of guys with $500K toters and trailers and wonder how much came from the house ATM. Not to mention cars and all the equipment. Easy to spend $150K buy in on a cheap deal even if you own a tow and support set up. No wonder we have a messed up economy. I preferred owning, fabrication,drive train building then driving. TD is tough? Comp Eliminator is not for the faint of heart or wallet. We were the poor boys in that game. Love it!
I had coffee this week with a RE agent friend. She stated that the vast majority of the homes on the market in our area are short sales. Even the short sales are asking more than they should. Adding to the problem is the fact that lenders are extremely difficult to work with and very slow to respond to offers. A client made an offer on a short sale in early November. The lender STILL has not responded.
I think this statement shows how little you know of how modern banking works. Such as the fact that the banks with the largest credit card assets have almost no deposits...
anonymous
~~~~~
We were talking about bank liabilities such as deposits ...
So pray tell how do these large banks finance their credit card loans?
I was talking to a couple of friends about going to the movies down the road. She looks at me, laughs, said "we were there the other night." That place is gang central. She is a former Montgomery Cty officer and he is DC Homcide.
We have no idea what is swimming with us here in the suburban sea.
BTW, going back to CR's post, I've been reading John Husing for over 20 years and he has always been a fool. He gets quoted often because he's been following a geographical area that no one else follows.
When I say "no one else," I am reminded of CR's own quote that I've read here a couple of times:
. . . it's definitely "Inland", but it's no "Empire". ROFLOL. In the Wiki description they mention "the Spanish and Mexicans who once controlled the area considered it largely unsuitable for colonization."
That's okay, I love you anyway, man, and I've always considered the OC largely unsuitable for habitation by thinking humans, so I won't hold that against you.
Like I said, it just depends on one's perspective.
Yagij: Haven't been able to keep up with all the threads...many comments, moving too fast, so I missed yours.
The middle and lower-end (junk really) antiques market collapsed in my area when the price of gas moved up.
My mom & I have close friends in the high-end & antique jewelry biz. They're really hurting & some have gone out of business. Others are just hanging on.
The stuff folks aren't selling right now, will eventually come out of hiding. Patience is the key.
Dealers in antiques will say they're doing great...wonderful, yada, yada but then a couple months later they "retire" or close up shop. It was only a matter of time before the high-end was hit.
No link. Trusted insider told me that was what they were to expect next week. He also said they were only advised in advance of 1 of 2 failures yesterday.
The toters and trailers for sale on junk just sit. Sure a few sell,but I think a lot of people are still at wishing prices.
Treat it like the housing situation. The weak hands have been shaken out. We are now waiting on the next level,the nicer rigs/cars,to fall. It will happen. To many I personally knew who did it on credit...
Speaking of guns and home invasion - Do you think owning a gun would have helped if your home were invaded by the likes of MS-13?
An honest question, so please do not go macho on me
...He said that every major dealer in the country is trying to sell the same coins that nobody wants and they are all trying to buy the same coins that nobody wants to sell, hence gridlock and very few of them are making money unless they also have strong bullion sales. (Emphasis mine)
While Spencer's treatment of chocking is wrong, you wouldn't remove the trachea (tracheotomy), but you could put a hole in it (tracheostomy) to restore air flow. This metaphor might work for 'chocking on excessive debt' i.e. remove the transport mechanism, insolvent financial institutions, thereby performing a Bankectomy.
Perhaps tying it all together with APPL, Jobs, pop culture; iBankectomy (investment bank removal)
OK, I will bite. My first answer is no. People like that always have an edge unless you are living in a state of fear, or readiness. Times are not insane enough for people in Fairfax to be that alert or fearful.
"I talk to the responding Officer and he thought they from a gang called MS-13."
lost | 01.17.09 - 6:52 pm | #
MS-13? Yikes. The .gov needs to issue hunting permits for those fuckers...
Cobradriver | 01.17.09 - 6:56 pm | #
i worked many years in a prison full of teenagers...ms-13 makes the "mafia" look like a bunch of boy scouts
i had a good working relationship with several gang members belonging to the hill top crips (from the tacoma area)...even they were afraid of those crazy people
Property values have cliff dived in my town without a bubble.
The Doctor's, Lawyers and polititions are buying it up for rentals.
A 120k appraised double lots with home and rental auctioned off at 32k.
There is just no jobs to support paying even rent.
yep defaulted 2 more rolexs last week Credit enima is coming..... | 01.17.09 - 7:06 pm | #
----- How much of a discount are you getting on those Rolexes? Since I'm not in the pawn business, would it be a higher percentage for the first one and declining for each additional watch someone offers you?
(e.g. 60% of retail value for the first one, 55% for the next one...)
Also, how quickly are you selling them, or are you just gonna be a Rolex King for a while?
Nova - that's my feeling as well. Hence the question - why would you buy a serious gun? I've been contemplating this issue and I think that it would only increase the risk unless you are good at using it in this kind of situations.
ova,
Just say no to south carolina. It will suck out your brain, and you will lie awake and listen to the roaches (they call them carolina bugs)and wonder why, why, why you ever thought this was a good idea. Even the nice parts are er..interesting, to say the least. Southern hospitality?? When the realtor is local and you sign a contract, i suppose, past that, nope.
Ask me how I know. I made it a year, and it cost me another 15K to get the hell out.
It's all because of "Predatory Borrowing"! Doncha Know that??
a quote from a GOP Congressman just recently on C-span.
ARMs are next. Brought to you by the likes of Alan Greenspan, Larry Summers, Bob Rubin. Our Elites really screwed US. BiPartisan elites!
but creepy Republicans still blame the victims so they have to be pushed off the cliff first.
(just went to buy a new truck but even there after befriending the older salesman semi-retired from GM and now at a Toyota dealership and having the cash in my account the salesman could see I was too smart to buy impulsively and admitted that even the new toyotas (best resale value of any vehicle) aren't such a good investment as the ARMs are coming due in about three months. We kinda off knew the USA then was heading for even more worse times. He tried to sell me a older tundra instead. I might just get another couple years out of my old volvo instead.
I don't know if you can invest in the Repo business but it has to be the strongest business going and growing. I admit it I am a vulture and in waiting for the local RE to finish dropping. Houses are modest in Central plains and can be bought like monopoly prices. Maybe if I can convince my wife I could pick up a TD on the cheap. I promised if I retired there would be no race cars. She has so far kept me to my promise. Dam the things you agree to when you get sick!
"Speaking of guns and home invasion - Do you think owning a gun would have helped if your home were invaded by the likes of MS-13?
An honest question, so please do not go macho on me"
MrM | 01.17.09 - 7:05 pm | #
Mr.M,
Serious answer. It depends. I sleep with my bedroom door closed and locked. So if I am in the sack they have to go through my front door and then down a narrow hallway then get through my door should give me time to mount a serious defense. The alarm will most likely go off at the same time.
I generally try to always be prepped but shit like that can happen anytime.
If you do not practice with a handgun/carbine you might as well defend yourself with a hammer...
Just remember,there are people who would kill you for 20$. They tried with a good friend but he got lucky and lived...He was shot 6 times. At his business. In broad daylight.
Times are not insane enough for people in Fairfax to be that alert or fearful. nova | Homepage | 01.17.09 - 7:08 pm | # ----- We had an interesting assault/robbery the other day.
We had an armed gunman enter a college campus building and rob at gun point an entire English class (30 students + professor), and our bandit made a getaway without so much as a shot fired. They shut down the entire campus for the rest of the day, and it made all the local buzz.
You cannot carry firearms onto college campuses so it makes sense that armed robbers would target those facilities, no?
I expect the reality to hit home for a lot of people when something like Nascar faces tough times
I know the hockey/bball arena in Colorado won't get to renew at least half their sponsors
Shane Cox, Re/Max, Furniture outlet, amp/Pepsi, Coors/Molson, Conoco, Qwest, Denver Times (newspaper) are the ones I can recall
I could see Pepsi, and Coors renewing. Conoco has no real need to advertise and might be wary. Qwest could but will definitely be too afraid to renew.
Shane Cox (bankrupt), Re/Max, the newspaper, and the furniture outlet will not be able to pay for renewal
Nascar has a huge following. It's biggest attraction is a cheap excuse for everyone to get together outdoors and drink insane amounts of beer. It is expensive to support so many teams though, no matter what the gas price is. They also attract a lot of advertising from companies that are on life support.
That is a question you need to answer to your own satisfaction. It is not a trivial one.
Myself? I have been around them forever. When I was 12 I would come from school, get the dog and rifle, and go rabbit hunting. That is not the same as what we are talking about but seeing them as tools rather than lifetakers is a difference.
I guess it depends on what your vision of what the future might bring to your area. Do you have kids? Are you urban, suburban, or rural?
"If you do not practice with a handgun/carbine you might as well defend yourself with a hammer..."
That's why I bought a Mossburg Cruiser about 8 years ago. Tried to tell myself that if I bought a handgun, I'd dutifully go the range a couple of times a month, but knew I was only kidding myself...
Yagij: Thanks for info. Very interesting. The few coin dealers I know retired last year. None left in my neck of the woods.
I have an acquaintance who buys hi-end antiques here at auction & house sales during the summer then runs 'em down to FL in the winter. I warned him about hard times but he waved me off saying he had lists of rich buyers and that the downturn wouldn't be so bad. I haven't seen him at auction in a while.
Nova: Closed up my business last year & took most to auction last spring. Saved the best tho. Am sitting with some cash and waiting like a big bird of prey.
IWannaknow writes:
"Property values have cliff dived in my town without a bubble."
The bubble is everywhere from the easy credit. If this is the first time around watch carefully and be ready for the next time. I also buy like your Doctors probably do, cash. The need for rent is highly reduced. A couple of months rent and costs are covered, excess cash is parked, depreciation is more the bank interest, up side potential when the dust settles is very good.
At the Local gun shop today and they are packed . I ask the sales girl what happen to the inventory of assault rifles .Told me they where selling like the day after tomorrow was doomsday.Had maybe 5 on the wall .3 moths ago had 35 on the wall and more in the back. Credit enima is coming..... | 01.17.09 - 6:54 pm | #
That's been the case since the economy visibly tanked and the polls shifted to Obama. BHO has a terrible record on the 2nd Amendment; His DOJ nominee wrote an Amicus in Heller that favored D.C.
MrM writes:
Speaking of guns and home invasion - Do you think owning a gun would have helped if your home were invaded by the likes of MS-13?
Home security is going to be a serious problem. I have invested in things like outdoor motion detectors to warn of someone entering the yard.
A intercom system is a good investment. I hate the thought of ever having to do so but if MS-13 is knocking and they bring a knife to a gun fight, to bad for them
I am still waiting,..when are we going to see a banker jump out of a building...
True story from my 79 year old mother (no other sources) she told me that hotel owners would not rent any apt. above the 2nd floor to anyone wearing a suit with no luggage(my interpretation of a banker).
MrM(Excellent) writes: Speaking of guns and home invasion - Do you think owning a gun would have helped if your home were invaded by the likes of MS-13?
An honest question, so please do not go macho on me
Just walking in on this. Please god don't hold me to whatever deranged shit has been said by others.
You are asking me, what if ninjas with flaming swords attack. You tell me how it will come out, you're the one making up the ninjas. Are we talking about 40 dudes with guns? Will they have support arms?
Frankly, 2 on 1 is bad odds if you all have guns, and 3 on 1 or worse, you're probably gonna get dinged. Armor may help lower the amt of injury sustained if you happen to be wearing it but the weapons are very fast.
My average threat situation is a 14 to 20 y/o kids, with some friends, who is totally out of his mind on being a teen male. He will try to bully me with a firearm, meaning shoot me, as he's a 14-20 y/o boy with no idea what he's doing beyond making magic gestures of power.
I think this is a very real threat profile. In fact some kids in a stolen car who exactly fit that profile gunned down this dude I used to party with 'cause he wouldn't give them his bookbag.
I'm gonna ventilate the dude the instant he threatens me with that gun, and you don't have to be too good to do that. I have seen the kids from the hood come out to practice at the public range, they really suck.
Not closely, but heard yesterday, or maybe it was Thursday, on the radio, that tickets for the 500 are being discounted (by the Speedway). Also have read, here and there, that teams are "consolidating/merging".
Sorry if this is a dupe, but here's a mainstream Merrill analyst who is very close to honest (the report was pulled but lives in this copy, scroll down and read the paste-up)
I'm getting the queasy feeling that the really breathtaking drop on the rollercoaster is still sitting out in front of us - lots of people with too much leverage can stretch for a while until the rope runs out - not to mention but that I've looked at a couple of aged short sales that are overpriced, under marketed and just sitting there gathering dust and generating high cost REO carry expenses for the financial institution. I suspect we haven't even had one round of crazed distress sales yet, and there may be 3-4 go rounds before this is over.
I want to see a banker jump out of a window...They said anytime now...I am still waiting...Anonymous
Back in the good ole depression days, when the bankers had a modicum of decency and did the honorable thing. Nowadays, they get in line at the punchbowl.
Times are not insane enough for people in Fairfax to be that alert or fearful. nova | Homepage | 01.17.09 - 7:08 pm | #
----- It may just be a sign of the times, but I am not thinking back to events just over the past month that make me more aware of my surroundings:
* A father defended off 2 armed robbers with his baby's diaper bag but took 2-3 slugs in the body to do it (Seriously, all he had was a cloth diaper bag) * A women was mowed down in a drive-by/assassination style hit at a crowded intersection at 1:00p on a Sunday afternoon while everyone around was enjoying what they thought was a post-church meal
I'm thinking that we are going to get more armed instead of less. Maybe not to hold off the U.S. Military ( /tinfoil ) but our neighbors and nearby bandits...
I am from a poor/rural area in Ohio. When I was looking for a place in 03/04 there was nothing really under 100k. I just looked. Out of 300 or so listings in the county 95 are under 100K. A bunch under 50.
The local istings have exploded here in Florida for high end properties. I was surfing a area claimed to be an "Excutive Subdivision" with 5-10 acre lots. 20-30 percent of all the homes have back taxes due. Some over 2 years old...
A great link. Just a couple paragraphs that caught my eye...
Most households doing their best to keep up with payments
The problem is that after seven years of reckless lending and borrowing behavior,
households are spending a near-record 14% of their after-tax income on interest
and principal to cover the mountain of debt that has been taken on. It has
reached a point where the household sector is spending more on interest than it
is on food. Im not sure that is sustainable. While some households are walking
away from their debt (ie, jingle mail) or are becoming delinquent, the majority are
doing their best to stay current because missing credit payments with regularity
can reduce ones FICO score by between 70 and 130 points.
Marginal household has a risky credit profile
Fully 35% of a persons FICO score boils down to ones history of making
payments on time. The average FICO score today now is down to 690 after the
borrowing spree of the past seven years. Yet to obtain a plain-vanilla 30-year
fixed rate mortgage, the minimum score is 760. For a 15-year HELOC, it is 740.
And, for a three-year auto loan, the minimum FICO is 720. This is a primary
reason why the credit cycle is not about to be revived. It is not that standards are
too tough as much as the unprecedented borrowing binge over the past seven
years has left the household sector, at the margin, with a credit profile that is too
risky for the banking community to justify to their shareholders.
Mrm, There is no easy answer to that question. My background as a Police Officer maybe may offer some insight. I have seen a few cases where the home owner/renter was save by having a gun. Mostly I've seen having a gun in the house have led to tragic outcomes. Accidental shooting, suicides and homocides among family members. However most people that have guns in their home are responible. Remember guns do have risks.
I dont own any guns, as my view was tainted via police work. I have no problems with homeowners/renters having a gun in the house. I would insist the the person get trained in its use. Understand the safety aspect of owning a gun.
I think a lot of people are going to invest in those metal bars on doors on their windows like in compton or puerto rico. The homes that dont have them will then be fair game.
If you look at voting trends (or intra election polling) especially urban, but unquestionably suburban as well now, areas are signalling they see the problems
I think despite the gasoline price runup, that rural Americans actually had one of their strongest years on record in 2008 economically
Zip 69101 Check out Realtor.com We have had a tolerable bubble (10-20%) but I and still waiting for the dirty deals. I am not a slum lord as my property manager loves me because I fix what ever is needed. Modest properties fit the income dynamics of local service workers. If you want a killer McMansion $500K will do it possibly on a mini lake shore. Yes I know the weather is not CA or FLA but the living for me is easy. Four hour drive to Denver races. My business partner has a winter home in Sarasota he bought just before the bubble for $325K and told me one day it was worth $800K+. He also told me lots are being repoed. Surprise!
Cemex is hobbled with debt mostly due to acquisition of Rinker Materials for $17B in 2007. Rinker's assets were primarily in the US sunbelt, creating severe cash flow problems.
The multiple was around 12X earnings which was a record high for the industry.
"Now I'm wondering if I was too optimistic."
Broward Horne | Homepage | 01.17.09 - 7:32 pm | #
Broward,
I get a lot of shitty looks at work when I say..."No way I'm gonna buy now,please give me a good reason home prices will rise instead of falling more?" Nobody can. I am really starting to wonder where we end up. I also thought 40-60% was a lot. The number of empty lots that have sold at 86-87 prices(or less) if fucking frightening.
O.T.,Hendricks donated a Gordon car for charity...They are stuck at 400k on the bidding...Reggie Jackson just said he would add 5k on top of the winning bid.
Holy shit,a full blown race package was just added to the package. All courtesy of Hendricks. ANY race. Full vip treatment...looks like it ended at 500K.
Thanks everybody for sharing your thoughts; I will in turn think about what you said. Getting a gun does not really solve anything, and it takes time to learn how to use it effectively. Choosing where to live is probably even more important.
With the mp organization moving to Defcon 3, I guess these might well be more important decisions than thinking about the F/X allocation of your portfolio (insert emoticon of your choice here)
I think despite the gasoline price runup, that rural Americans actually had one of their strongest years on record in 2008 economically
Um, remember the bull run in commodities? The gasoline runup is part of the reason rural areas had their one of their best years economically. Let's see how they do this year...
My business partner has a winter home in Sarasota he bought just before the bubble for $325K and told me one day it was worth $800K+. He also told me lots are being repoed. Surprise!"
Economist Moe Howard 3SU | 01.17.09 - 7:43 pm | #
I work in Sarasota. It is going to get really ugly over the next couple of years. They have been immune somewhat to date. But I see lots of cracks developing.
Sad to see a great airline go down such as Lithuanian. They by far have the most beautiful flight attendants of all services. Partially due to credit freeze.
German Warning for Russia: Maintain Europes Gas Flow
By JUDY DEMPSEY and STEPHEN CASTLE
Published: January 16, 2009
BERLIN Germany, the Western European country with the closest ties to the Kremlin, warned Russia on Friday to abide by its contractual relations, saying its reputation as a reliable supplier of gas could no longer be taken for granted as a result of the two-week gas dispute between Ukraine and Russia that has left millions of homes without heat.
Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, who met Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in Berlin on Friday evening, made it clear that Russias credibility was now on the line. We have to restore trust and responsibility, she said before the meeting. A government spokesman, Thomas Steg, said Friday that it was crucial that both Ukraine and Russia abide by their contractual obligations. - NY Times
While I believe your opinion is important for a family situation (teenagers sneaking out of windows at all times during the night), for someone older and living alone, a weapon is critical...
The old are targets for teenage home burglaries...and for older women in purse snatching around paycheck time at the local grocery store...
Nova; Got a good education in England. Used to buy for London dealers who couldn't make it to the country auctions. Glass (and some really old ceramics) are my weakness.
But you can't eat glass, which might be a concern if deflation is our future. Might be good for barter tho. You never know.
Thank you CR, I can't begin to tell you how sick I of hearing that meme I have become. It's one of my patrons favorites, they look so confused when I explain the concept of Derivatives and the fact that there are over 500 Trillion dollars worth of them involved...
I'm hearing more and more people speaking of stockpiling food now, I had a customer today tell me he's bought eight cows in the past month. He owns a carpet/tile store. Not your typical "dairy" farmer...
energyecon - Putin offered Ukraine 20% off the European price provided Ukraine keeps its transit fee at the 2008 level, and now both sides expect the gas flow to resume on Monday.
Sad to see a great airline go down such as Lithuanian. They by far have the most beautiful flight attendants of all services. Partially due to credit freeze. Anonymous | 01.17.09 - 7:57 pm | #
----- Link? Haven't seen any news about airlines in WSJ or Bloomberg.
The last time I talked to him he was telling me his brother a retired oil company VP was calling for doom in the stock market and economy. He was laughing till I said you bet this suckers is going to blow. I have been wondering what he did as he is heavy in to the market. He is smart and fast on his feet but I will rag him a bit for fun.
My guess is 2012 we may hit bottom and then we crawl. I look at it this way, we are trying to absorb 10 years of false growth. Top being roughly 2006 in housing, draws a line back to 1996 plus normal inflation for proper growth. The over shoot may be another 5 years. Everything including wages have to contract backwards to a base. I hope I am very wrong but I don't think they can hide the rotten Easter egg anymore. They are trying.
To answer the gun question from earlier in the thread:
I'll take my chances with the gun over without. I know how to handle weapons and have been doing so since I was a kid (Dad was a cop and military). My husband grew up on the North side of St. Louis in gang territory and has his share of tales to tell on the issue. We are both well armed and trained with weapons. I would not want to be the one entering our home uninvited
Speaking of Bloomberg... Film, Porn Shoots Sought by Los Angeles Homeowners Hit by Slump Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Jayshree Gupta reclined on an English-style sofa in her Beverly Hills penthouse as crews buzzed around taping protective paper over the hardwood floors and wheeling in crates of camera gear. She was hosting a television-commercial shoot. It meant allowing dozens of strangers and 400-pound klieg lights into her home for a full day, and it was worth every minute, Gupta said. âI am doing it because I need money to maintain my lifestyle," she said, perched near a portrait of herself painted by her friend Barbara Carrera, the Bond girl in 1983's âNever Say Never Again." âA lot of my money is either gone or tied up. Right now I am hurting." (Emphasis Mine)-----It's amazing how WS wouldn't let some big money pr0n folks on their exchanges due to puritanical improprieties, but as soon as money is needed, no one seems to mind opening their door to the pr0n and its dirty, dirty money... /sarcasm
Comrade Kristina writes:
I'm hearing more and more people speaking of stockpiling food now, I had a customer today tell me he's bought eight cows in the past month. He owns a carpet/tile store. Not your typical "dairy" farmer...
"and now sarasota has it's very own madoff"
Anonymous | 01.17.09 - 7:59 pm | #
350M. Freakin rookie .
Reggie Jackson is selling his 69 ZL1/COPO Camaro. This is 1 of 50 built. Last year this was a 600K+ car easy...WOW,they are seriously stuck at 200...it has crawled to 280...it took forever to get 290k...
Yep,the froth is leaving the collector car market...
"Riots and street battles are set to spread through Bulgaria, Romania and the Baltic states as inflation, unemployment and racism fuel tension, reports Jason Burke."
slack jaw writes:
"Riots and street battles are set to spread through Bulgaria, Romania and the Baltic states as inflation, unemployment and racism fuel tension, reports Jason Burke."
Not to mention watching family members freeze their ass off and needing something to do to stay warm! Let's smash things and set fires mmmmmm toasty!
We have 2 stained glass windows from England. Still in their frames. Came out of houses. The dealer had a lot of them. Apparently there was a big move to rip them out and replace them with energy efficent ones.
My wife really likes glass. She is on a mission to stock up on Waterford since they are toast.
Economist Moe: Re hiding the rotten egg...I smell sulfur, don't you.
Great Merill report. Saved it to send to family, friends. Was struck by the words "Generational change" and "secular shift". Seeing it in other things, too.
FYI, they are called Palmetto Bugs, and like everything good in Charleston, only come out, dressed in black, after 5......
As far as guns, the louder the cycling action of chambering a round is inversly proportionate to the length of time spent in your house by would be robber...
Just got back from the annual Phoenix Barret Jackson auto auction.
Brutal.
I'm estimating foot traffic was down 25% compared to last year. Vendors were noticeably less busy.
In 2007 and 2008 it seemed like nothing went for less than 100K on the big day of the show. This year it was rare for things to crack 100K. There was none of the frenetic bidding as in years past.
2007 auction revenues were $111 million, 2008 were $88 million. This year will be way less.
I'm so far behind on threads, but I make a point of reading Byz_Ruins.
Spent last week at a job training program sponsored by California Employment Development Department (EDD).
Great program btw - discovered that interviewing and resume techniques and procedures have VASTLY changed in last 5 years. Optical readers look at resumes and if not enough key words are in there - bzzzzzz - off to the shitpile your resume goes, even if you might be the most qualified applicant. You have to tailor the resume to the job description, and put it on the first page. Even if you hit a "live" person, your resume has 8-12 seconds to catch their eyes with buzz words, or again bzzzzzzz. Anyone on this board looking for work in CA try to get into the "Experience Unlimited" program.
Anyways- at the pizza party at the end, one of the trainers asked informally if anyone wanted to go practice shooting.
2 of the 3 women wanted to go to the range, right then. Phil was neither macho nor suave, but I was surprised by their avid interest.
I'm going, too. This is south Orange County, land of the Real Housewives.
Can you grow marijuana with 400-pound klieg lights? Broward Horne | Homepage | 01.17.09 - 8:20 pm | #
Who knows. This is like asking if Swiss made Olympic class .223s are accurate to 1100 yards. Either of both could be true but none who knows one or the other ain't talkin'.
I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the darkness at Tannhäuser Gate. All those moments will be lost in time like tears in rain. Time to die.
[Bird flies off...]
I just saw several people shopping for food and they looked very hungry!
These are the grimmest economic circumstances since the 1930s. Lives and businesses are being wrecked as I write. There will be little appetite for my proposed measures; how much better to hope that we can muddle through, looking for "green shoots" of recovery and doing little radical.
Are these people fucking stupid? I've never seen a 400 pound light and if there is such a thing, you can bet your ass they wouldn't have the cash to rent one for a porn movie.
Wake up people; think and don't believe this shit!
There's something that doesn't quite jive, so I'll throw it out for comments.
The recent crash in retail sales would imply that discretionary spending was a significant portion of consumer spending, in fact a larger portion than in the past since such cliff-diving seems to be unprecedented. But Elizabeth Warren (whose work I greatly respect) has found that in the last 40 years the fraction of household spending considered discretionary has gone down.
To many I personally knew who did it on credit... Cobradriver | 01.17.09 - 7:03 pm | #
OH, that would be an awful situation to be in. Time to hock the family jewles or your one true love? I bet the divorce rate this year hits a new record.
Nova: Your wife's my kinda gal. Was real sad to read the trouble at Waterford/Wedgwood/Royal Doulton/Rosenthal, et al. Fine old companies. The older pieces of Waterford were of superb quality although the cutting has declined over time, of course. Still, few did that kind of cutting anymore. Many years ago, I took a tour of their factory. Prices were high even then.
Optical readers look at resumes and if not enough key words are in there - bzzzzzz - off to the shitpile your resume goes, even if you might be the most qualified applican
One of the really big problems with Mish's "free market" fanaticism is that he just doesn't get what's really happening.
People who spend time on politics, "reputation" and tricking the system are displacing anyone who actually wastes time on skills or work.
The past two years I've had several foreign-born recruiters who insisted that I "tweak" my resume but for the most part I refused.
But what I've seen is that gangs of gamers get the jobs. They support each others claims, etc, etc.
It's unreal to watch.
It's so IN-efficient compared to ten years ago that I feel like I'm living in some kind of sick, twisted movie.
.
Can you grow marijuana with 400-pound klieg lights?
Broward Horne | Homepage | 01.17.09 - 8:20 pm | #
No. Indoor growers use either high pressure sodium vapour bulbs, metal halide bulbs or fluorescents. With just 4 27 watt soft white compact fluorescent bulbs you can yield about two ounces of kind bud if you know what you're doing.
An update: They are breaking, and in ever increasing numbers.
Picosec post..
The strategy of middle class families to build their own safety nets is failing. It is no longer possible for both mom and dad to work, to buy a home in a decent neighborhood, to commit to health insurance and car payments, and to survive if something goes wrong. These parents are struggling, but they are not broken. They are hard workers, but the rules they played by are no longer the rules that govern financial success for the middle class. In a single generation, the world has changed, and these families are struggling to adapt. They committed themselves to thrift and hard work in exchange for a promise of economic security and a better future for their children. That promise has disappeared. There was a time when families sent mothers into the workplace only in times of distress. Today, women go to work every day just to maintain a tenuous grasp on a middle-class life. Plenty of families make it, but a growing number of those who worked just as hard and followed the rules just as carefully find themselves in a financial nightmare.
"I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the darkness at Tannhäuser Gate. All those moments will be lost in time like tears in rain. Time to die."
I saw exactly the same thing of Graves End.
Is there another universe were every American who doesn't like the Depression dosen't have a semi-auutomatic weapon?
Tweak is necessary. But not the way you might think. Rather than game the system by lying on the resume, but by re-formatting to something called a 'modified functional'. Paragraph of transferrable skills in front after a paragraph that essentially cops the job description, followed by chronological job history with small bullets containing skill sets practiced at each job.
For those of you who read the report from Merrill, the following section on deflation left me confused. Is "growth in aggregate demand" really expected to exceed "available supply" in the near term? Wouldn't that be inflationary?
Deflation will be a more enduring theme than most realize
It is perfectly understandable, but still dangerous, to be clueless about the mechanism that determines whether we experience inflation or deflation. Even with the upcoming stimulus, this economy, which has been growing below potential since June 2006, will very likely continue to do so this year and into next year as well. This means a sustained widening in the output gap; in other words, growth in aggregate demand exceeding available supply, higher unemployment rates and lower capacity utilization rates will be a reality as far as the eye can see.
Later in the paper, they state this.
Far too early to be talking about the next inflation cycle
To get the inflation that many are worried about, the policy stimulus is going to have to go beyond just plugging holes in a leaky boat to reviving growth in domestic demand to a rate that exceeds the growth rate of aggregate supply (labor force + productivity growth). The problem is not one of supply, it is about insufficient demand. And that is why it is far too early to be talking about the next inflation cycle. The consumer represents 70% of that demand, and were learning a lot about the consumer with each and every passing data point; to say that frugality has replaced frivolity has become an understatement.
Picosec: Saved the Warren report. There was a brief period of time when the wife's paycheck meant a vacation or a new pool. You could live off the man's salary alone, but the wife's paycheck brought home the goodies.
"Great Merill report. Saved it to send to family, friends. Was struck by the words "Generational change" and "secular shift". Seeing it in other things, too."
Paradigm Lost | 01.17.09 - 8:19 pm | #
I felt a big change in the early nineties as businesses fell off and workable young people turned into Day Care. It no longer mattered if you produced a good service, The cheapest guy was right. Glad I bailed, my friends still fight every day.
Paulson said he had to make it attractive to banks, which is code for Im going to give money away, said Joseph Stiglitz, who won a Nobel Prize in 2001 for his work on the economic value of information.
The worst aspect of this is that they were designed not to do what they were supposed to do, he said in a telephone interview from Paris Jan. 7. If Paulson was still an employee of Goldman Sachs and hed done this deal, he would have been fired.
While the government has pledged to recover its investments, Congress provided little guidance on how to accomplish that. Legislation mandated that the Treasury receive warrants in order to acquire shares in companies tapping the program. The law didnt specify how many warrants or how they should be priced, factors that will determine how much money, if any, taxpayers get in exchange for their risk.
The government has received warrants valued at $13.8 billion in the 25 biggest capital injections from TARP, according to Bloomberg data. Under the terms Buffett negotiated for his $5 billion stake in Goldman Sachs, the TARP certificates would have been worth $130.8 billion.
$13.8 billion in the 25 biggest capital injections from TARP, according to Bloomberg data. Under the terms Buffett negotiated for his $5 billion stake in Goldman Sachs, the TARP certificates would have been worth $130.8 billion. Anonymous | 01.17.09 - 8:56 pm | #
Dimes on the dollar, nice. Buffets deal should have been the stadard. Any bank that holds out for a better deal gets none.
Except that lowered credit standards and increased lending increased the percentage of, for example, retail sales that were driven by people's ability to borrow against their home's increasing equity (don't forget, by definition, and like all bubbles, this one was increasing until pretty much the end, so people who took out these stupid loans may have looked like geniuses for a time.) Widespread declining home values are a much bigger drag on national wealth and spending at all levels.
The Democrats are up to their ears in the causes of this crisis, which is not to say Greenspan and everyone else don't have roles. But forcing banks to make loans based more on an applicant's zip code than on their credit scores (to avoid allegations of redlining) had the effect of creating a lot of money at all levels of consumption that was not worth owning when the music stopped.
Putin offered Ukraine 20% off the European price provided Ukraine keeps its transit fee at the 2008 level, and now both sides expect the gas flow to resume on Monday.
MrM | 01.17.09 - 8:02 pm | #
"Riots and street battles are set to spread through Bulgaria, Romania and the Baltic states as inflation, unemployment and racism fuel tension, reports Jason Burke."
slack jaw | 01.17.09 - 8:12 pm | #
It's the knock-on effects that are just beginning to be felt...the economically borderline eastern European states have had over a week of instant depression with the gas cutoff...it will be interesting to see if this generates increased coherence in the EU in energy and particularly in other areas.
it will be interesting to see if this generates increased coherence in the EU in energy and particularly in other areas. citizen energyecon | Homepage | 01.17.09 - 9:02 pm | #
When does the EU kick the American military out and pay for thier own to take care of thier own?
"Lucifer,
No mention of ungrateful Indian immigrants whose sole stated goal is to milk the system while advocating genocide in their spare time "
this is the joker who steals handles. he drove the much respected EvilHenryPaulson away, and has been steading KCanuck's handle recently.
The Canadians saw him for what he was and rejected him...so he's parked his worthless self here.
Is that you Rush Limbaugh? crispy&cole | Homepage | 01.17.09 - 5:32 pm | #
If McNabb is not a real quarterback, what do you think his views of O' will be. Makes me think of Boss Hogg for some reason. Sure would like to see Rush in an all white suit.
Economist Moe: Culture is kinda like the weather here in flyover. Wait just a minute & it'll change. I remember the 70s when we bashed up Japanese cars and whole industrial towns were just curling up to die. Many never made it back. But somehow we survived.
Boudicca(Unrated) writes: Is there another universe were every American who doesn't like the Depression dosen't have a semi-auutomatic weapon?
We learned from gacking the Indians. Come and divvy up our resources while we're down. Welcome to the New Gaza Strip, AKA the Boston Atlanta Metropolitan Axis, where cop and gangbanger alike are down with seeing foreign mercenary vehicles die in anti-armor ambushes.
You ain't never gonna see it because nobody would be insane enough to even begin to try. I'm pretty happy with the guns situation, thanks. Stay offen our land.
But forcing banks to make loans based more on an applicant's zip code than on their credit scores (to avoid allegations of redlining) had the effect of creating a lot of money at all levels of consumption that was not worth owning when the music stopped. Nigel Tufnel | 01.17.09 - 9:01 pm | #
The CRA didn't do this. Wrong time, wrong place, wrong types of loans. See here, here, and here. "CRA == Subprime" is a right-wingnut wet-dream, and sub-prime isn't even the biggest part of the problem
I remember the 70s when we bashed up Japanese cars and whole industrial towns were just curling up to die. Many never made it back. But somehow we survived.
Paradigm Lost
~~~~
This time it is the entire country, and most of the world ...
You ain't never gonna see it because nobody would be insane enough to even begin to try. I'm pretty happy with the guns situation, thanks. Stay offen our land. Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.17.09 - 9:15 pm | #
"Wait just a minute & it'll change. I remember the 70s when we bashed up Japanese cars and whole industrial towns were just curling up to die. Many never made it back. But somehow we survived."
Paradigm Lost | 01.17.09 - 9:10 pm | #
I think we will survive but this time we have not only financial problems intertwined around the world, we have results of uncontrolled illegal immigration in a bubble amount as well. Many are talking of riots from import gangs as well as many others have animosity to settle the score of rich and poor. I am afraid the 70's may have been a walk in the park in comparison. The change in news media and the internet that has brought us together with instant info and discussions is extremely hard for the government to play games in secret only for us to read about them in a week or month from now. We know now and are better educated. Scary different this time.
Better late than never, but not much better.
First?
Grim & depressing.
And with the recession deepening, soon we will be uber- subprime.
Affluent people sometimes live beyond their means too? Stop the presses!
Anyone know how to make the font bigger for HaloScan comments while using an iPhone/Blackberry Storm? Besides turning it sideways
It's weird because the new window opens with the font big enough, but once the page reloads the font is tiny and you can't zoom in.
By the end of this year subprime will be a forgotten word. Unemployment will be everything.
I'm glad you picked up on this WaPo article. Another glaring omission is any mention of the role Congress and its creatures, Freddie, Fannie, FHA, Federal Home Loan Banks, etc., etc., may have played in this mess. Not to mention the well-intentioned CRA and its thousands of compliance minions in the federal financial institution supervisory agencies carrying out long and expensive annual compliance examinations. Also, to get approval for mergers and acquisitions, banks had to prove they were making bad (i.e., non-conforming) mortgage loans.
Great post.
Krugman calls for Bernanke to be sacrificed:
An alternative economic strategy - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com
@Senorito On-Topico:
Can you repeat your comment about the "cemex" (Comex?) going BK next week? Any detail to the rumors?
Not to mention the well-intentioned CRA and its thousands of compliance minions
JohnR(VA) | 01.17.09 - 5:23 pm | #
No this article completely exonerates CRA - RTFA:
a Washington Post analysis of available data show that the foreclosure crisis knows no class or income boundaries. Many borrowers ensnared in the evolving mortgage mess do not fit neatly into the stereotypes that surfaced by early 2007 when delinquency rates shot up. They don't have subprime loans, the lending industry's jargon for the higher-rate mortgages made to borrowers with shaky credit or without enough cash for a down payment.
More here, here and here
.
Growing foreclosures ... Rob Dawg, if you're out there, didn't you say that 18 months after foreclosures peak is the time to buy?
Not to mention the well-intentioned CRA
Zombie lies never die, do they?
Krugman calls for Bernanke to be sacrificed
Anonymous | 01.17.09 - 5:24 pm | #
Human sacrifice probably makes as much senseas anything that these clowns have tried so far.
Guillotines on the top step of the NY Stock Exchange (and the NY Fed, if needed to handle the flow)!
Let the heads roll down the steps and the 'blood in the streets' be literal rather than figurative.
It is thought the markets are governed by a mix of fear and greed. It is now clear that greed governed in recent decades.
So, time to reverse the trend, and let fear be the ruling meme for Wall Street cheats/frauds/liars, and their anti-regulation buddies in DC.
It is time for a real 'accounting'.
Not to mention the well-intentioned CRA and its thousands of compliance minions
JohnR(VA) | 01.17.09 - 5:23 pm | #
Is that you Rush Limbaugh?
Anonymous, the iPhone font issue is very frustrating and I've not found a solution. I just reload the page for each refresh and scroll down. Hopefully the new commenting system will not have this problem.
Anonymous writes:
Krugman calls for Bernanke to be sacrificed:
~~~~
We need to nationalize the privately owned and operated Federal Reserve. Canada did it in 1936.
If the tax payers take the risk then tax payers should get the profit as well.
subprime
last years black
Anonymous writes:
Krugman calls for Bernanke to be sacrificed:
I wonder why
Anonymous, the iPhone font issue is very frustrating and I've not found a solution.
Uffish Thought | 01.17.09 - 5:32 pm | #
I recall someone here saying you caqn zoom in by:
- touching thumb and fingtip together
- touching the screen with both
- spreading them apart
Hope this is right.
Maybe the new treas. sec. can make it so the banks don't have to pay their self employment taxes. That should fix things.
When Larry, Currly and I had a conference call on the subject of how to regulate the next generation of the mortgage business. We came up with a earth shattering idea that is revolutionary and quit smart if I say. Do not lend money to people who have NO job, NO assets, NO 20% down payment, NO possible way of paying the mortgage back. Require reasonable leverage with back up for default.
Excuse for a minute. I have been informed that this has been tried with great success. Dam! We thought we were on to something!
If the tax payers take the risk then tax payers should get the profit as well.
Isn't the "profit" currently returned to the Treasury Department? Hamilton seems to think so: Econbrowser: Federal Reserve balance sheet
The local area here, which is far from CA, FL NV and there bubbly areas, the pre-foreclosures and bank owned have just recently begun to outnumber all other homes for sale.
do we have to sacrifice the central bankers to appease the financial gods???
cant we just torture them a little???
It may turn out that every recent (last several years) motgage goes underwater. What then? I think that as early as '04 many were aware that the "recovery" from the '01 recession was largely due to real estate related jobs.
bobn
That's just it, the width of the page is fixed in the mobile browser and thus you can't zoom. Haloscan is really a weird creature
Uffish Thought,
Thanks for sharing. I too scroll to the bottom and then read comments with the phone sideways which actually makes the haloscan page wider and thus font larger. You just only get about 5 lines at a time
bobn, it's really a text wrap issue. When first opened the text is large and wraps to fit the screen. A refresh looses the text wrap and subsequently the text becomes small to fit the screen. Thanks.
BOBN :
It works , thanks a bunch, I had been stuck with ever shrinking fonts for days... Being computer challenged I had to get special glasses from the drugstore. It works, it works !!!!
bobn at 528
debunking cra blame game nonsense
well done!
Isn't the "profit" currently returned to the Treasury Department? Hamilton seems to think so: Econbrowser archi..._reserve_1.html
Anonymous
~~~~~
I'm talking about the profit the banks make with credit underwritten by the tax payer. Currently banks can print money up to 10 times their capital yet we the tax payer must borrow our own money at interest?
Not to mention the well-intentioned CRA
JohnR(VA) | 01.17.09 - 5:23 pm | #
That horse really needs no more beating. CRA didn't cause dodgy loans to be made. The dodgy loans were available, and if an accredited minority (you'd be astounded at who fits that definition) qualified for one - all the better. Fannie, Freddie, FHA, VA, whatever - if you could find a loan product for a 'minority', it helped your CRA numbers. 'Minorities' were not granted loans if they didn't qualify for them. Of course, 'qualification' took on a whole new meaning in that era.
CRA is NOT the boogey-man. Please - give it a rest.
The local area here
lawn grass | 01.17.09 - 5:37 pm | #
Where might that be?
Moe Howard....That's a real big problem right now, get your head out of the air...If one has a job it's being threatened, if one had 20% of 150k it would be lots smarter to rent, and if one has asset's why rock the boat by putting them in harms way.
You see, I'm a lender of last resort and had to take my lofty idea of a customer's history determined on who/what /how he would pay...You must see all model's in lending has been short to hell and you are on your own, sink or swim unless you are in with Paulson.
So you cannot blame blacks and mexicans for the crisis. Dammm...
The biggest source of the problem was employed, educated, family values spouting whites. Whocoodhadnode!!
I am not subprime or prime; I have no house loan at all any more.
Have a client who put 30% down at peak. Still underwater.
If the lenders had required even 5% down, this bubble would merely be a bubble, not a disaster.
Next bubble: vengeance industry.
C
The moment the RNC and the DNC began pushing the subprime meme, it was obvious the banking elites were blame shifting .
Yeah, Counter, I hear the hooker/drug business is down, so breaking kneecaps will be the next business plan.
Lucifer,
No mention of ungrateful Indian immigrants whose sole stated goal is to milk the system while advocating genocide in their spare time until their motherland threatens to nuke the USA and seizes all of its wealth? :0
Sorry but I couldn't resist tossing your crap right back on to you
In 2005 and 2006, more than half the homes sold in Southern California were in Riverside and neighboring San Bernardino County, pumping thousands of new jobs into the regional economy, said John Husing, an independent economist. "Real estate became what gold was to the gold mining towns," he said. "Everyone's job was tied to the mine, whether they realized it or not."
Yes, and easily greater than 50% of those jobs were worked by illegal aliens. My eyes bled when I saw it.
agreed
subprime was NOT the cause either
argued this for more than a year
subprime was the "canary in the coal mine"
Time lapse of Singapore Harbor. Building being completed is ironic.
Josh Reviews Everything: JRE Keeps You Entertained All Weekend: High In The Water
Anyone else watching the Barrett-Jackson Auction on Speed tv?
Tonight is the big test
Currently banks can print money up to 10 times their capital yet we the tax payer must borrow our own money at interest?
But banks have to pay interest on 9 times their capital. Bank Liabilities
Did anyone look at the slideshow accompanying the WaPo story?
Do realtors in California really drive around in cars with their faces and names airbrushed on the side?
What a bunch of fools.
Growing foreclosures ... Rob Dawg, if you're out there, didn't you say that 18 months after foreclosures peak is the time to buy?
\t
norma | 01.17.09 - 5:30 pm | #
Yes. Any reason to reconsider? Clarifying; this is about investing in real estate, not finding a place to live. I am ready. I expect California ratios to dip below 100x even if I won't touch those dogs.
Don't you just love these 3-day weekends? Will there be a bank holiday next week? Will there be a circuit breaker set off in the markets? Will Citi be "nationalized"? Will the 8.3 hit California? Inquiring minds want to know!
Mispricing of risk at all levels (including loan types) is one of the big culprits. I won't get into the whys, and who benefited.
But, mispricing of risk occurred in all loan types - we all became mispriced. Subprime, and everyone (present company excluded, of course) else.
Manias and bubbles. Tulip to housing to peak oil.
In my area it's been job loss. Last night I took the long way around my town getting home and had no idea there was so many empty houses going to hell in a hand basket.
My State has never had a bubble of any kind, lot's of poor uneducated people that have lived on the edge for generations and now must be taken care of by who, since Taxes collected have/will cliff dive and The Goverment is pappy of last resort...Do I see tent cities?
Currently banks can print money up to 10 times their capital yet we the tax payer must borrow our own money at interest?
But banks have to pay interest on 9 times their capital. Motley Fool Investing Research di...iabilities.aspx
Anonymous
~~~~~
Very Wrong, the banks only pay interest on 1/10th the capital as the rest is legally leveraged.
Get your facts straight.
Take a victory lap, CR. You deserve it. You and Tanta.
What's the Barrett Jackson auction?
lawyerliz writes:
What's the Barrett Jackson auction?
Collectible cars.
Possible new slant on the "Death Tax"?
-
Cash-strapped city governments in Japan are searching through the ashes of cremated residents to extract precious metals, pocketing the proceeds from the recycled gold and silver, it has emerged.
The city of Nagoya alone has reportedly collected 12 kg of gold, silver, platinum and palladium in 2007 from teeth and bones, worth more than Y10 million.
The practice has been uncovered by the Asahi newspaper, which claims relatives of the dead are unaware of their loved ones' remains are being "mined" for reuseable materials.
"What happens to the bodies after cremation varies from place to place, but in general it is left up to the individual crematorium," said Fumio Nakajima, a spokesman for the Tokyo Metropolitan Government.
"The ashes and most of the bones are placed in the urn and given to the family, although some bones are too big and it is then up to the crematorium to dispose of them," he said. "It's the same with teeth.
"The metal is no longer considered to be a part of the person and we are just reusing and recycling the material," he said.
Tokyo collected some 700 grams of gold, 500 grams of palladium and 1.9 kg of silver from cremated bodies in 2007, adding Y3.2 million to the city's bank account. The city also banked around Y90,000 in coins left as offering inside the coffins.
The practice has apparently been common for the last 20 years, although some cities have stopped after relatives of the dead found out and complained that it was disrespectful to profit from the deceased.
(Taken from here)
"If one has a job it's being threatened, if one had 20% of 150k it would be lots smarter to rent,"
As a lender you should know some do not need a job and have money. Also you missed my point of the stupid that has been unleashed on us the responsible. A little commonsense, discipline and care for others would have prevented this whole mess. Greed has it's price of the inconvenient reality.
The empty rotting house meme, yeah Iwanna.
I can't say it often enough. Something needs to be done and quickly.
Anybody out there who can help?? Other than vultures, and they can't vultch until the prices go down more.
What's the Barrett Jackson auction?
It's an auction house in Scottsdale that specializes in really cool cars (antiques, hot rods, restored muscle cars, and this 1957 corvette convertible with a rag top...oh my it was pretty).
The auctions are televised on the Speed Network.
Yeah, the husband and I were watching last night. Looked to us like prices were lower than in previous auctions.
Anonymous,
Most of my intense dislike is reserved for Canucks. Intact I have repeatedly stated the USA is the best place for non-white immigrants, bar none!
However I am not enamoured by hypocrites, irrespective of their color. I have often seen a tendency by a certain type of person to blame "others" for their problems, regardless of reality and their own actions. The MSM often encourages such blame shifting.
"Anyone else watching the Barrett-Jackson Auction on Speed tv?
Tonight is the big test"
crispy&cole | Homepage | 01.17.09 - 5:59 pm | #
The big block Shelby 'vert that sold was down 40% or so over last years prices. The deal I saw so far was the Foose '33 that sold for 35K?. the freaking paint cost that...
Chris
Counterpointer writes:
Next bubble: vengeance industry.
the resurgeance of the mob and gangs...
cosa nostra, crips, jokers, bloods, bgd, hells angels, sorenos, nortenos...sharks, jets...the list goes on and o
Yeah, the husband and I were watching last night. Looked to us like prices were lower than in previous auctions.
merciless | 01.17.09 - 6:06 pm | #
So far I agree
Reflection:
If we can start a program for bad banks good banks, why not good house and bad house.
Good house - you can deduct interest, sell it, add to it, and do what ever you like.
Bad house - The Feds take back the paper at cuttent price levels (investors get dinged) and remortgage at the current levels but you have to stay until you have achieved a 20% equity stake and if you go bk the debt follows you.
Ok, what's a foose?
My client who redoes classic cars will be impressed when I ask him how it went!!
Chris
Cobradriver | 01.17.09 - 6:06 pm | #
I was hoping you would see the post...a man with a Cobra is a GOD in my book!
one owner on a speed tv car auction was so upset he started driving his own cars on stage as if that would make a difference
yagij writes:
@Senorito On-Topico:
I have it on 95% intel. that next week is the week. 4 independent sources, one highly placed at the internal corp. finance level.
I know the q4 gross sales vol. was down 60% YOY, and internal AP/AR has slowed to a snails pace since Thursday last week.
Ain't getting more detailed than that. Sorry, gotta protect my peeps.
Good idea, Barley.
"The big block Shelby 'vert that sold was down 40% or so over last years prices. The deal I saw so far was the Foose '33 that sold for 35K?. the freaking paint cost that"
Hurts when you have to sell during a buyers market
Get your facts straight.
Read the two articles, jackass, then work through this: Bank of America | Annual Report (2004) | Consolidated Balance Sheet
Thanks guys...it looks like the car collectors are in a recession too
All,
After being pretty much converted to a "Pessimistic Joe" ---> also my new nick here on the CR blog, I thought I shared a link from Dr. Brett's good stock blog showing that the high price inventory totally blows out right now. This is a clear sign of the low-up of prime and jumbo mortgages to come. As CR states for a long time, the higher-priced areas are now the once to suffer!
TraderFeed: More Evidence of Lumpiness in Housing Inventory
Pessimistic Joe
The week for what? Market drops triggering stops?
Chip Foose is a top notch custom car designer, builder. His stuff should bring big bucks.
CEMEX concrete company, largest in country I believe.
Now is the time to buy. . . a formerly really expensive house!~!
We live in Fairfax VA. Not the high dollar section. Yet townhouses were going from 400 to 800k. Houses hit 1M.
There is a McDonalds in a shopping center down from us. It gets its share of homeless from the woods nearby.
I stopped there with my daughter so she could run in. I am sitting in the car watching this early 20's Asian girl who was standing around in front. Nothing unusual in her dress but something was off to me. So I watch casually walk over to an ashtray and pull a nice long cig butt out.
Surprising, but I notice a lot of people butting their cigs and then relighting them later. Not of out of the trash but... So I watch her out of the corner of my eye. She finds a cup that had blown out of the trash and picks it up and sits down. Now she has a cig and the cup as camo for her sitting there.
More fallout from what is begining to blow through the burbs is my guess.
mmckinl writes: ... the banks only pay interest on 1/10th the capital as the rest is legally leveraged.
Can you please explain that?
Regulatory capital ratios for banks are about 7-10% of their book assets (there are different kinds of capital ratios). So book equity (roughly speaking Tier 1 Capital) is about 10% of assets, which makes it roughly 10% of liabilities. Assuming banks have to pay interest for their liabilities, the original poster was correct. Taking into account off-balance sheet exposures makes that factor even greater than 10 (but not 1/10!)
"Ok, what's a foose?"
lawyerliz | 01.17.09 - 6:08 pm | #
Liz,
Chip Foose. Longtime streetrod/hotrod builder and designer.
Chris
Some aliens, just arrived in earth orbit, might look at our situation and think, "Oh! We had these problems on our planet thousands of years ago and solved them by ..."
lawyerliz,
Cemex is Mexico's largest cement mfg., but they're global and have heavy US exposure, primarily SW and SE US, poor devils. Company was/is actually on my watchlist... has a LOT of debt shortly due from recent (within the last couple of years) acquisitions.
I have it on 95% intel. that next week is the week. 4 independent sources, one highly placed at the internal corp. finance level.
I know the q4 gross sales vol. was down 60% YOY, and internal AP/AR has slowed to a snails pace since Thursday last week.
Senorito On-Topico | 01.17.09 - 6:09 pm | #
-----
No problem. Just wanted to make sure you were calling your shot (Since no one responded to your original post) and it was in fact NYMEx.
I have expected that this weekend is going to be a **itstorm, but after 2 banks on Friday and little news today, I'm just wondering if I'm in the eye of the storm or my fears were unfounded. We shall see.
D'oh!
*Not the NYMex (Comex)
And if there is a circuit breaker event next week, Rush and Sean and Bill will be leading the "it's BHO fault" meme.
Lawyerliz: didn't you post recently that your favorite vultures showed up and bought up distressed properties?
lawyerliz writes:
The empty rotting house meme, yeah Iwanna.
I can't say it often enough. Something needs to be done and quickly.
Anybody out there who can help?? Other than vultures, and they can't vultch until the prices go down more.
Thanks, FOJ
"Chip Foose is a top notch custom car designer, builder. His stuff should bring big bucks."
Economist Moe Howard 3SU | 01.17.09
Unfortunatly the market is moving on from street rods somewhat to the musclecars. Been going on for a few years now.
'67 Vette,big block,132K,last year this would have been bumping 200K pretty easy...
'67 Shelby GT500...Stuck at 100K. I had a co-worker sell a lesser car last year for 147K(67 GT350).
Chris
Cobradriver,
Given my druthers, would take a GT 350 over the GT 500 anyday...maybe not from an "investment" standpoint, but I prefer my cars to handle...not just go like a batouttahell in a straight line
As an Inland Empire resident, I resemble that remark...
I am so screwed...
Another story. We went into Starbucks and the guy who took my order commented on my ballcap. He looked to be in his mid 60's. It has the SC state emblem on it.
So he tells me his son is living there. I tell him "Yes, we would like to retire there." He tells us "Before the bottom fell out of everything. That was my plan."
My guess is 3 years ago the idea of taking orders at Starbucks would have been laughable. I would also guess that there is a house somewhere in his story.
Can you please explain that?
Loans are considered assets to banks ...
So they can have 10 times as many assets as capital ...
They loan based on their assets, not their capital, so that for each $1 in capital they get interest on $9 in loans ...
Lothar loves the World Rally car series, and especially the Scoobie team. No matter the surface, if the engine's not underwater and the tranny is spinning, you're getting through it. WRC just makes it into a really fun competition to do so!
Chris
Cobradriver | 01.17.09 - 6:21 pm | #
I am a retired drag racer and follow some of my friends who race very expensive stuff and the stuff for sale is many and very little response on the ads. Lots of Pros with out sponsors dropped at the last minute. Will be an interesting year. Egos and big bucks come and go fast with the economy.
I have not looked at the schedule, but I assume there will be a few Corba's tonight...that is test of the high-end market...maybe a gull-wing or two also.
slack jaw writes:
Some aliens, just arrived in earth orbit, might look at our situation and think, "Oh! We had these problems on our planet thousands of years ago and solved them by ..."
serving humanity...on a blueplate special!
Lothar,
2 years ago made the trip to LeMans for the 24 Hrs. The year Audi debuted the turbo diesels....pretty neat stuff!!
Friday, January 16, 2009
Crisis Disrupts Asia's Domestic Bond Markets
Flight to Quality Shakes up Dealer Rankings, HSBC on Top
http://www.greenwich.com/WMA/in_the_news/news_details/1,1637,1796,00.html
What if Asia starts having to borrow in foreign currencies again? Round 2?
For the thread earlier. Intresting in that he is saying they have days...
Peter Spencer, chief economic advisor to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club said that quantitative easing is needed immediately
By Angela Monaghan and Edmund Conway
Last Updated: 9:56PM GMT 17 Jan 2009
The Government and the Bank of England have got "days not weeks" to take action to revive the economy or face a prolonged depression, one of the UK's leading economists has warned.
Peter Spencer, chief economic advisor to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club said that quantitative easing, whereby the Bank of England would print money to buy assets such as corporate bonds and consumer loans, was needed now.
"My concern is that people don't fully understand the dangers lurking out there. The Bank of England needs to move towards quantitative easing immediately you don't have to wait until you get to zero per cent interest rates. If someone is choking to death you don't think twice about giving them an emergency tracheotomy. There may be dangers, yes, but the alternative is that they die," he said.
Krugman calls for Bernanke to be sacrificed
To sacrifice an American Central banker, you must use the Central American model: take him to the top of the pyramid, and rip his heart out while it's still beating.
Race horse auctions bids are off 46%. Tell me Rich are not feeling the economic downturn.
Cobradriver,
Were there any 1969 ZL-1 or other COPO Camaros on the auction?
Peter Spencer, chief economic advisor to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club said that [devaluation] is needed immediately
Race horse auctions bids are off 46%. Tell me Rich are not feeling the economic downturn.
I'll be interested to see what happens to sponsorship in the PGA. Some of those golfers may have to wear last year's shirts.
Max Fischer | 01.17.09 - 6:32 pm
Thanks. An obvious translation when I thought about it.
Economist Moe Howard 3SU | 01.17.09 - 6:27 pm | #
Moe,
Been to Racingjunk.com?? I kinda like tracking the prices on stuff.
I worked for/with John Keeling of Keeling & Clayton fame for a few years at TWA. Lots of fun and I can make a Holley sing thanks to what he showed me...
Chris
"And if there is a circuit breaker event next week, Rush and Sean and Bill will be leading the "it's BHO fault" meme."
BO never will be around when shtf. Brush up on history about "change" and you will find out he's just a political front running Illinois magician.
Anyone here remember how BO won his first elected postion in 96...
mmckinl @6:25 pm: Let's get accounting straight.
Loans are assets, correct. The bank gets paid interest on these loans. The bank funds these loans with liabilities and its own equity (call it capital). Roughly speaking, the bank will have $1 of equity for each $10 in assets (in reality it is closer to $7 or $8, but let's keep things simple).
That means that the other $9 will have to be funded by liabilities, on which the bank has to pay interest.
Hence the original poster said the banks have to pay interest on 9 x capital.
I agree with this statement.
The word of '09 will be DEPRESSION or DEFLATION, probably both.
It's not just collectible cars. Sales of high-end and old fine jewelry, modern art & general antiques have all slowed. As for antique glass & burnt dirt, the bottom has dropped out of the market.
Anonymous writes:
Friday, January 16, 2009
Crisis Disrupts Asia's Domestic Bond Markets
Flight to Quality Shakes up Dealer Rankings, HSBC on Top
~~~~
HSBC on top ! They just went to market for tens of billions in capital !
Mish has some serious sh!tpile noted in his most recent potpourri:
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Economic Potpourri January 17, 2009
EU dairy subsidies? Huh? More!?? They already get more than business class tickets to travel. What now? Electric udder and bollock warmers? Cristal soaked feed? Gold flake vodka winter warmers?
Ghesh. Is there no end to this stupidity?
C
For Immediate Release - January 14, 2009
Greenwich Associates
Canada's Investment Banks Weather The Storm
Wednesday, January 14, 2009 Stamford, CT USA Companies in Canada are benefiting from the fact that the banks upon which they rely for capital markets coverage and mergers & acquisition advisory services are in a much stronger position than those in other markets, according to the results of the most recent Greenwich Associates Canadian Investment Banking Research Study.
"Simply put, Canada's banks are stronger than some of their counterparts in the United States and Europe because they were not as heavily exposed to the mortgage business or structured products," says Toronto-based Greenwich Associates consultant Peter Kane. "Because their balance sheets are not as loaded down with assets of deteriorating value, the banks that Canadian companies rely on for credit, capital markets services and M&A advice have not faced the same capitalization crisis that has brought the U.S. banking system to its knees."
In the United States, the landscape of banks and investment banks available to companies in need of capital and other financial services has been altered by a dramatic series of events, most notably the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the crisis-induced acquisitions of Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch and Wachovia. Also yet to come: Stricter government regulation of the banking sector and the potential for greater Congressional influence over the business practices of banks that participated in the national rescue program.
With Canada having much earlier moved to the universal banking model (i.e., bank-owned dealers), it has not suffered from this type of forced consolidation and historic government intervention. As a result, the competitive landscape of banks servicing Canadian companies has to this point remained relatively unchanged through the crisis.
True. I collect WWII Militaria. Like housing, items would not go for list because people would often offer the seller more than what they originally asked. Not anymore.
"Were there any 1969 ZL-1 or other COPO Camaros on the auction?"
JJL | Homepage | 01.17.09 - 6:32 pm |
I haven't seen any yet. Stuff like that should show up during prmetime tonight.
They had a ZL1 last year with the original engine on a stand and gmpp in the car. I think it went north of 200K.
'70 Hemi Cuda...180K. That is a 40-50% haircut over last year...
Chris
MrM - loans are assets. Until they're not.
C
Do realtors in California really drive around in cars with their faces and names airbrushed on the side?
mal | 01.17.09 - 6:00 pm | #
I had to go look at the slideshow to see what you saw. Really amazing and no, I've never seen that before. He must think very highly of himself.
One word about Corona, though. My kids, born and raised in the desert, thought Corona was 'the big city' when they each in turn joined The Young Americans.
It all depends on one's perspective.
I look at Racingjunk.com every day and dream my daughter wants to run Top Dragster. I am not going to pay for it so she has to make on her own. I owned a couple of C/ED cars and now my buddy/driver runs F-16 and I get to play with the tune up. 890HP on the motor and 1200HP on the bottle. I remember Keeling & Clayton. I also raced Lions, OCIR and Irwindale. No matter where I go there are car guys!
MrM:
You're correct. Leverage ratios are based on the underlying capital. And a bank just can't lend money. Banks are financial intermediaries; funds must come from somewhere.
NOVA, My mil lives in Fairfax co. Typical townhouse, worth about 450,000. On Jan. 1st, they were victims of a home invasion. The bil was hurt badly.
It's not just collectible cars. Sales of high-end and old fine jewelry, modern art & general antiques have all slowed. As for antique glass & burnt dirt, the bottom has dropped out of the market.
Paradigm Lost | 01.17.09 - 6:36 pm | #
-----
I had posted something two nights ago about the coin/PM market. It is be similar to your comment which is basically:
What items people want to buy are not for sell, and what is for sell no one wants to buy.
Sounds like a rather eery precursor to other things coming down this pipe...
Counterpointer writes:
loans are assets. Until they're not.
Loans are assets whose value is in the eyes of beholder
I have not looked at the schedule, but I assume there will be a few Corba's tonight...that is test of the high-end market...maybe a gull-wing or two also.
crispy&cole | Homepage | 01.17.09 - 6:27 pm | #
crispy, what time PST, if you please, will the big ones be coming out?
On Jan. 1st, they were victims of a home invasion. The bil was hurt badly.
lost | 01.17.09
I hope he is ok. Are the Vietnamese? I ask that because that seems to be more common in their community.
Oh, and before everyone goes all PC on me - my Stepmother is Vietnamese.
Hence the original poster said the banks have to pay interest on 9 x capital.
I agree with this statement.
MrM
~~~~~
Little interest if any. Any banks you know pay interest on checking accounts?
The they lend this money at 30% to credit card holders while taking late fees and service charges for an initial ROI to banks of over 250%.
6-9 pm PST
"I also raced Lions, OCIR and Irwindale. No matter where I go there are car guys!"
Economist Moe Howard 3SU | 01.17.09 -
I was stationed at ElToro. The closed OCIR just before I got there. Assholes. I spent a bunch of time at TI after Big Willy got it reopened.
T/D is tough. Not to mention I suck as a driver. I would rather build the car than drive it...
I have plans for a big inch stroker in the Cobra eventually...only a 351/427 right now.
Chris
On a positive employement hiring notice...
Wisconsin seeks 80 people to fill positions in unemployement offices thruout State.
Wonder if this is only temp work?
crispy, thanks. I'll be following it.
Any banks you know pay interest on checking accounts?
The they lend this money at 30% to credit card holders while taking late fees and service charges for an initial ROI to banks of over 250%.
I think this statement shows how little you know of how modern banking works. Such as the fact that the banks with the largest credit card assets have almost no deposits...
The bil was hurt badly.
lost | 01.17.09 - 6:42 pm | #
Sorry to hear that, Lost. Do you think it's a function of the neighborhood, or the times?
C - are you out there? Do you have a subscription to LLoyds List?
NOVA, they were mexican. I talk to the responding Officer and he thought they from a gang called MS-13.
you think it's a function of the neighborhood, or the times?
Comrade Terry | 01.17.09 - 6:50 pm
Home invasions are not nice. Think Manson family come to plunder.
"Any banks you know pay interest on checking accounts?"
My personal bank accounts have always earned better interest than my US $ cds!
I am currently earning 3.75% for my checking account -- which is the lowest I've ever earned (FU Ben).
https://www.rivermarkcu.org/savings_checking/rewards_checking.html
Wisconsin seeks 80 people to fill positions in unemployement offices thruout State.
LAM | 01.17.09 - 6:48 pm | #
-----
Good catch on future growth opportunities!
Now, what kind of private sector business would be able to take advantage of the growing unemployed--particularly areas that are legit and not VICE-based?
mmckinl - All big banks, including C, BAC, JPM, WFC, heavily depend on wholesale funding.
Also, don't forget that those 30% finance charges on credit cards need to cover losses from those who pay back neither principal not interest.
But if the point you are making is that banks charge higher interest that they themselves have to pay, then 'duh'
At the Local gun shop today and they are packed . I ask the sales girl what happen to the inventory of assault rifles .Told me they where selling like the day after tomorrow was doomsday.Had maybe 5 on the wall .3 moths ago had 35 on the wall and more in the back.
NOVA, they were mexican. I talk to the responding Officer and he thought they from a gang called MS-13.
MS-13. Easy to google. Yes, they are here. Parts of Arlinngton and out in the far burbs. They were tagging here where I live but probably wannabees. Oh, Fairfax High has a few wannabees and family members.
I see lots of guys with $500K toters and trailers and wonder how much came from the house ATM. Not to mention cars and all the equipment. Easy to spend $150K buy in on a cheap deal even if you own a tow and support set up. No wonder we have a messed up economy. I preferred owning, fabrication,drive train building then driving. TD is tough? Comp Eliminator is not for the faint of heart or wallet. We were the poor boys in that game. Love it!
"I talk to the responding Officer and he thought they from a gang called MS-13."
lost | 01.17.09 - 6:52 pm | #
lost,
MS-13? Yikes. The .gov needs to issue hunting permits for those fuckers...
Chris
6 bank failures expected by FDIC next Friday.
I had coffee this week with a RE agent friend. She stated that the vast majority of the homes on the market in our area are short sales. Even the short sales are asking more than they should. Adding to the problem is the fact that lenders are extremely difficult to work with and very slow to respond to offers. A client made an offer on a short sale in early November. The lender STILL has not responded.
MS-13 has been profiled on the A&E Gangland series.
Those are some seriously bad dudes.
MS-13. Ugh. Those are the ElSalvadorans who like to use machetes. Brutal.
I think this statement shows how little you know of how modern banking works. Such as the fact that the banks with the largest credit card assets have almost no deposits...
anonymous
~~~~~
We were talking about bank liabilities such as deposits ...
So pray tell how do these large banks finance their credit card loans?
6 bank failures expected by FDIC next Friday.
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ | 01.17.09 - 6:56 pm | #
-----
Linky?
Heck, RobDawg may be right with the 3 digit bet against CR if they roll in at more-than-a-handful per week...
I was talking to a couple of friends about going to the movies down the road. She looks at me, laughs, said "we were there the other night." That place is gang central. She is a former Montgomery Cty officer and he is DC Homcide.
We have no idea what is swimming with us here in the suburban sea.
BTW, going back to CR's post, I've been reading John Husing for over 20 years and he has always been a fool. He gets quoted often because he's been following a geographical area that no one else follows.
When I say "no one else," I am reminded of CR's own quote that I've read here a couple of times:
. . . it's definitely "Inland", but it's no "Empire". ROFLOL. In the Wiki description they mention "the Spanish and Mexicans who once controlled the area considered it largely unsuitable for colonization."
That's okay, I love you anyway, man, and I've always considered the OC largely unsuitable for habitation by thinking humans, so I won't hold that against you.
Like I said, it just depends on one's perspective.
if things get really bad property values will be going to zilch --alot of scared bankers don't know which ledge this will drop to.
Yagij: Haven't been able to keep up with all the threads...many comments, moving too fast, so I missed yours.
The middle and lower-end (junk really) antiques market collapsed in my area when the price of gas moved up.
My mom & I have close friends in the high-end & antique jewelry biz. They're really hurting & some have gone out of business. Others are just hanging on.
The stuff folks aren't selling right now, will eventually come out of hiding. Patience is the key.
Dealers in antiques will say they're doing great...wonderful, yada, yada but then a couple months later they "retire" or close up shop. It was only a matter of time before the high-end was hit.
the inland empire is mostly ugly desert populated by wannabe phoenixes
So pray tell how do these large banks finance their credit card loans?
mmckinl | 01.17.09 - 6:58 pm | #
Well, up until fairly recently, through issuing CDSs....now that that market is effectively toast, might get interesting.
No link. Trusted insider told me that was what they were to expect next week. He also said they were only advised in advance of 1 of 2 failures yesterday.
Economist Moe Howard 3SU | 01.17.09 -
The toters and trailers for sale on junk just sit. Sure a few sell,but I think a lot of people are still at wishing prices.
Treat it like the housing situation. The weak hands have been shaken out. We are now waiting on the next level,the nicer rigs/cars,to fall. It will happen. To many I personally knew who did it on credit...
Chris
The stuff folks aren't selling right now, will eventually come out of hiding. Patience is the key.
And the deals will be very good if you have cash.
Speaking of guns and home invasion - Do you think owning a gun would have helped if your home were invaded by the likes of MS-13?
An honest question, so please do not go macho on me
yep defaulted 2 more rolexs last week
Yagij: Haven't been able to keep up with all the threads...many comments, moving too fast, so I missed yours.
Paradigm Lost | 01.17.09 - 7:01 pm | #
-----
From: HaloScan.com - Comments
...He said that every major dealer in the country is trying to sell the same coins that nobody wants and they are all trying to buy the same coins that nobody wants to sell, hence gridlock and very few of them are making money unless they also have strong bullion sales. (Emphasis mine)
While Spencer's treatment of chocking is wrong, you wouldn't remove the trachea (tracheotomy), but you could put a hole in it (tracheostomy) to restore air flow. This metaphor might work for 'chocking on excessive debt' i.e. remove the transport mechanism, insolvent financial institutions, thereby performing a Bankectomy.
Perhaps tying it all together with APPL, Jobs, pop culture; iBankectomy (investment bank removal)
And the deals will be very good if you have cash.
nova
~~~~
Antiques and jewelry are a falling knife just like stocks ...
Has the market for Beanie Baby any chance for recovery, or should invest in Czarist Russian bonds?
MrM | 01.17.09 - 7:05 pm
OK, I will bite. My first answer is no. People like that always have an edge unless you are living in a state of fear, or readiness. Times are not insane enough for people in Fairfax to be that alert or fearful.
"I talk to the responding Officer and he thought they from a gang called MS-13."
lost | 01.17.09 - 6:52 pm | #
MS-13? Yikes. The .gov needs to issue hunting permits for those fuckers...
Cobradriver | 01.17.09 - 6:56 pm | #
i worked many years in a prison full of teenagers...ms-13 makes the "mafia" look like a bunch of boy scouts
i had a good working relationship with several gang members belonging to the hill top crips (from the tacoma area)...even they were afraid of those crazy people
Property values have cliff dived in my town without a bubble.
The Doctor's, Lawyers and polititions are buying it up for rentals.
A 120k appraised double lots with home and rental auctioned off at 32k.
There is just no jobs to support paying even rent.
mmckinl | 01.17.09 - 7:07 pm
For me, it would be hold until death and then pass on for probable resale.
yep defaulted 2 more rolexs last week
Credit enima is coming..... | 01.17.09 - 7:06 pm | #
-----
How much of a discount are you getting on those Rolexes? Since I'm not in the pawn business, would it be a higher percentage for the first one and declining for each additional watch someone offers you?
(e.g. 60% of retail value for the first one, 55% for the next one...)
Also, how quickly are you selling them, or are you just gonna be a Rolex King for a while?
I want to see a banker jump out of a window...They said anytime now...I am still waiting...
Anyone here remember how BO won his first elected postion in 96...
LAM | 01.17.09 - 6:34 pm | #
Challenged the nominating petitions of all his primary opponents and found enough errors to disqualify them.
Back at you: Anybody here "remember" how BHO won the Iowa Caucuses?
Nova - that's my feeling as well. Hence the question - why would you buy a serious gun? I've been contemplating this issue and I think that it would only increase the risk unless you are good at using it in this kind of situations.
Anonymous writes:
...Krugman calls for Bernanke to be sacrificed...
The Incas had a nice way !
ova,
Just say no to south carolina. It will suck out your brain, and you will lie awake and listen to the roaches (they call them carolina bugs)and wonder why, why, why you ever thought this was a good idea. Even the nice parts are er..interesting, to say the least. Southern hospitality?? When the realtor is local and you sign a contract, i suppose, past that, nope.
Ask me how I know. I made it a year, and it cost me another 15K to get the hell out.
It's all because of "Predatory Borrowing"! Doncha Know that??
a quote from a GOP Congressman just recently on C-span.
ARMs are next. Brought to you by the likes of Alan Greenspan, Larry Summers, Bob Rubin. Our Elites really screwed US. BiPartisan elites!
but creepy Republicans still blame the victims so they have to be pushed off the cliff first.
(just went to buy a new truck but even there after befriending the older salesman semi-retired from GM and now at a Toyota dealership and having the cash in my account the salesman could see I was too smart to buy impulsively and admitted that even the new toyotas (best resale value of any vehicle) aren't such a good investment as the ARMs are coming due in about three months. We kinda off knew the USA then was heading for even more worse times. He tried to sell me a older tundra instead. I might just get another couple years out of my old volvo instead.
Chris
Cobradriver | 01.17.09 - 7:03 pm | #
I don't know if you can invest in the Repo business but it has to be the strongest business going and growing. I admit it I am a vulture and in waiting for the local RE to finish dropping. Houses are modest in Central plains and can be bought like monopoly prices. Maybe if I can convince my wife I could pick up a TD on the cheap. I promised if I retired there would be no race cars. She has so far kept me to my promise. Dam the things you agree to when you get sick!
"Speaking of guns and home invasion - Do you think owning a gun would have helped if your home were invaded by the likes of MS-13?
An honest question, so please do not go macho on me"
MrM | 01.17.09 - 7:05 pm | #
Mr.M,
Serious answer. It depends. I sleep with my bedroom door closed and locked. So if I am in the sack they have to go through my front door and then down a narrow hallway then get through my door should give me time to mount a serious defense. The alarm will most likely go off at the same time.
I generally try to always be prepped but shit like that can happen anytime.
If you do not practice with a handgun/carbine you might as well defend yourself with a hammer...
Just remember,there are people who would kill you for 20$. They tried with a good friend but he got lucky and lived...He was shot 6 times. At his business. In broad daylight.
Chris
Times are not insane enough for people in Fairfax to be that alert or fearful.
nova | Homepage | 01.17.09 - 7:08 pm | #
-----
We had an interesting assault/robbery the other day.
We had an armed gunman enter a college campus building and rob at gun point an entire English class (30 students + professor), and our bandit made a getaway without so much as a shot fired. They shut down the entire campus for the rest of the day, and it made all the local buzz.
You cannot carry firearms onto college campuses so it makes sense that armed robbers would target those facilities, no?
For home invasion a shotgun is best. They offer the best chance of hitting something, maybe more than one.
Does anyone follow the business of Nascar?
I expect the reality to hit home for a lot of people when something like Nascar faces tough times
I know the hockey/bball arena in Colorado won't get to renew at least half their sponsors
Shane Cox, Re/Max, Furniture outlet, amp/Pepsi, Coors/Molson, Conoco, Qwest, Denver Times (newspaper) are the ones I can recall
I could see Pepsi, and Coors renewing. Conoco has no real need to advertise and might be wary. Qwest could but will definitely be too afraid to renew.
Shane Cox (bankrupt), Re/Max, the newspaper, and the furniture outlet will not be able to pay for renewal
Nascar has a huge following. It's biggest attraction is a cheap excuse for everyone to get together outdoors and drink insane amounts of beer. It is expensive to support so many teams though, no matter what the gas price is. They also attract a lot of advertising from companies that are on life support.
MrM | 01.17.09 - 7:12 pm |
That is a question you need to answer to your own satisfaction. It is not a trivial one.
Myself? I have been around them forever. When I was 12 I would come from school, get the dog and rifle, and go rabbit hunting. That is not the same as what we are talking about but seeing them as tools rather than lifetakers is a difference.
I guess it depends on what your vision of what the future might bring to your area. Do you have kids? Are you urban, suburban, or rural?
"If you do not practice with a handgun/carbine you might as well defend yourself with a hammer..."
That's why I bought a Mossburg Cruiser about 8 years ago. Tried to tell myself that if I bought a handgun, I'd dutifully go the range a couple of times a month, but knew I was only kidding myself...
Yagij: Thanks for info. Very interesting. The few coin dealers I know retired last year. None left in my neck of the woods.
I have an acquaintance who buys hi-end antiques here at auction & house sales during the summer then runs 'em down to FL in the winter. I warned him about hard times but he waved me off saying he had lists of rich buyers and that the downturn wouldn't be so bad. I haven't seen him at auction in a while.
Nova: Closed up my business last year & took most to auction last spring. Saved the best tho. Am sitting with some cash and waiting like a big bird of prey.
IWannaknow writes:
"Property values have cliff dived in my town without a bubble."
The bubble is everywhere from the easy credit. If this is the first time around watch carefully and be ready for the next time. I also buy like your Doctors probably do, cash. The need for rent is highly reduced. A couple of months rent and costs are covered, excess cash is parked, depreciation is more the bank interest, up side potential when the dust settles is very good.
At the Local gun shop today and they are packed . I ask the sales girl what happen to the inventory of assault rifles .Told me they where selling like the day after tomorrow was doomsday.Had maybe 5 on the wall .3 moths ago had 35 on the wall and more in the back.
Credit enima is coming..... | 01.17.09 - 6:54 pm | #
That's been the case since the economy visibly tanked and the polls shifted to Obama. BHO has a terrible record on the 2nd Amendment; His DOJ nominee wrote an Amicus in Heller that favored D.C.
Senorito On-Topico | 01.17.09 - 7:13 pm
Yes...and I really, really hate roaches. The thing is - I get along pretty good with SC/NC/VA type people.
Anonymous writes:
Does anyone follow the business of Nascar?
My old motor builder was the Guru for Furniture Row team until last year. I heard they have gone to a limited schedule for 09.
MrM writes:
Speaking of guns and home invasion - Do you think owning a gun would have helped if your home were invaded by the likes of MS-13?
Home security is going to be a serious problem. I have invested in things like outdoor motion detectors to warn of someone entering the yard.
A intercom system is a good investment. I hate the thought of ever having to do so but if MS-13 is knocking and they bring a knife to a gun fight, to bad for them
I am still waiting,..when are we going to see a banker jump out of a building...
True story from my 79 year old mother (no other sources) she told me that hotel owners would not rent any apt. above the 2nd floor to anyone wearing a suit with no luggage(my interpretation of a banker).
MrM(Excellent) writes:
Speaking of guns and home invasion - Do you think owning a gun would have helped if your home were invaded by the likes of MS-13?
An honest question, so please do not go macho on me
Just walking in on this. Please god don't hold me to whatever deranged shit has been said by others.
You are asking me, what if ninjas with flaming swords attack. You tell me how it will come out, you're the one making up the ninjas. Are we talking about 40 dudes with guns? Will they have support arms?
Frankly, 2 on 1 is bad odds if you all have guns, and 3 on 1 or worse, you're probably gonna get dinged. Armor may help lower the amt of injury sustained if you happen to be wearing it but the weapons are very fast.
My average threat situation is a 14 to 20 y/o kids, with some friends, who is totally out of his mind on being a teen male. He will try to bully me with a firearm, meaning shoot me, as he's a 14-20 y/o boy with no idea what he's doing beyond making magic gestures of power.
I think this is a very real threat profile. In fact some kids in a stolen car who exactly fit that profile gunned down this dude I used to party with 'cause he wouldn't give them his bookbag.
I'm gonna ventilate the dude the instant he threatens me with that gun, and you don't have to be too good to do that. I have seen the kids from the hood come out to practice at the public range, they really suck.
Does anyone follow the business of Nascar?
Not closely, but heard yesterday, or maybe it was Thursday, on the radio, that tickets for the 500 are being discounted (by the Speedway). Also have read, here and there, that teams are "consolidating/merging".
Sorry if this is a dupe, but here's a mainstream Merrill analyst who is very close to honest (the report was pulled but lives in this copy, scroll down and read the paste-up)
Main Street Monroe, Ohio - One dismal economic report
I'm getting the queasy feeling that the really breathtaking drop on the rollercoaster is still sitting out in front of us - lots of people with too much leverage can stretch for a while until the rope runs out - not to mention but that I've looked at a couple of aged short sales that are overpriced, under marketed and just sitting there gathering dust and generating high cost REO carry expenses for the financial institution. I suspect we haven't even had one round of crazed distress sales yet, and there may be 3-4 go rounds before this is over.
I want to see a banker jump out of a window...They said anytime now...I am still waiting...Anonymous
Back in the good ole depression days, when the bankers had a modicum of decency and did the honorable thing. Nowadays, they get in line at the punchbowl.
Times are not insane enough for people in Fairfax to be that alert or fearful.
nova | Homepage | 01.17.09 - 7:08 pm | #
-----
It may just be a sign of the times, but I am not thinking back to events just over the past month that make me more aware of my surroundings:
* A father defended off 2 armed robbers with his baby's diaper bag but took 2-3 slugs in the body to do it (Seriously, all he had was a cloth diaper bag)
* A women was mowed down in a drive-by/assassination style hit at a crowded intersection at 1:00p on a Sunday afternoon while everyone around was enjoying what they thought was a post-church meal
I'm thinking that we are going to get more armed instead of less. Maybe not to hold off the U.S. Military ( /tinfoil ) but our neighbors and nearby bandits...
Paradigm Lost | 01.17.09 - 7:19 pm
You probably specialize. Your field is one that takes knowledge that is not gained in a couple years. But that good buy is so freakin nice.
Anonymous writes:
I am still waiting,..when are we going to see a banker jump out of a building...
You don't understand there is the FED there who will catch them in a TARP
It is weird to read the Merrill piece saying "its over" in such clinical terms. Sorta like an autopsy report.
Especially the part on the clueless and irrelevant govt juking.
I trust my personal security who patrol the subdivision I bought in following the Corleones in the book The Godfather.
Here is a picture one of my crew,
http://img187.imageshack.us/img187/4696/internettoughguyak3.jpg
It's almost worth the Great Depression to learn how little our big men know.
- Will Rogers
"It's almost worth the Great Depression to learn how little our big men know.
- Will Rogers
Anonymous"
i think we're reading the same boards?
Economist Moe Howard 3SU | 01.17.09 - 7:20 pm | #
I am from a poor/rural area in Ohio. When I was looking for a place in 03/04 there was nothing really under 100k. I just looked. Out of 300 or so listings in the county 95 are under 100K. A bunch under 50.
The local istings have exploded here in Florida for high end properties. I was surfing a area claimed to be an "Excutive Subdivision" with 5-10 acre lots. 20-30 percent of all the homes have back taxes due. Some over 2 years old...
Where are you(general area)?
Chris
1929er
A great link. Just a couple paragraphs that caught my eye...
Most households doing their best to keep up with payments
The problem is that after seven years of reckless lending and borrowing behavior,
households are spending a near-record 14% of their after-tax income on interest
and principal to cover the mountain of debt that has been taken on. It has
reached a point where the household sector is spending more on interest than it
is on food. Im not sure that is sustainable. While some households are walking
away from their debt (ie, jingle mail) or are becoming delinquent, the majority are
doing their best to stay current because missing credit payments with regularity
can reduce ones FICO score by between 70 and 130 points.
Marginal household has a risky credit profile
Fully 35% of a persons FICO score boils down to ones history of making
payments on time. The average FICO score today now is down to 690 after the
borrowing spree of the past seven years. Yet to obtain a plain-vanilla 30-year
fixed rate mortgage, the minimum score is 760. For a 15-year HELOC, it is 740.
And, for a three-year auto loan, the minimum FICO is 720. This is a primary
reason why the credit cycle is not about to be revived. It is not that standards are
too tough as much as the unprecedented borrowing binge over the past seven
years has left the household sector, at the margin, with a credit profile that is too
risky for the banking community to justify to their shareholders.
Repo business but it has to be the strongest business going and growing
Repo only good if you can resell the repossessed vehicle. Worked in previous recessions but this time...
I'm not so sure.
For several years my working assumption was that property would fall 50% in general, even in spite of John Templeton's predictions of a 90% collapse.
Now I'm wondering if I was too optimistic.
.
ova,
I live in the suberbs during the Rodney King flare up...I was on the road and had to travel into LA...I brought my M-1 carbine and 50 rounds...
If I was going down, I intended to take as many as I could me...
Just saying...
Mrm, There is no easy answer to that question. My background as a Police Officer maybe may offer some insight. I have seen a few cases where the home owner/renter was save by having a gun. Mostly I've seen having a gun in the house have led to tragic outcomes. Accidental shooting, suicides and homocides among family members. However most people that have guns in their home are responible. Remember guns do have risks.
I dont own any guns, as my view was tainted via police work. I have no problems with homeowners/renters having a gun in the house. I would insist the the person get trained in its use. Understand the safety aspect of owning a gun.
I think a lot of people are going to invest in those metal bars on doors on their windows like in compton or puerto rico. The homes that dont have them will then be fair game.
"Here is a picture one of my crew,
ImageShack® - Image Hosting img1...toughguyak3.jpg"
Anonymous | 01.17.09 - 7:28 pm | #
Airsofters! Careful kid,you'll shot your eye out!
Thanks for the laugh...
Chris
lost | 01.17.09 - 7:34 pm
I know a fair amount of retired law enforcement types. I was surprised when I figured out most do not carry.
ova
Isn't a police officer supposed to have his weapon with him at all times?
jw
jwn,
Not if they are retired.
It's best not to discuss politics on the internet without getting too far away from basic facts.
Right now America's economy isn't hurting. Part of it are, albeit the parts that have the majority of the population and a larger majority of the GDP.
http://www.esquire.com/cm/esquire/images/y4/obama-dems-vs-GOP-data-0209-lg.jpg
If you look at voting trends (or intra election polling) especially urban, but unquestionably suburban as well now, areas are signalling they see the problems
I think despite the gasoline price runup, that rural Americans actually had one of their strongest years on record in 2008 economically
Speaking of guns and home invasion - Do you think owning a gun would have helped if your home were invaded by the likes of MS-13?
MS-13? Don't know. But in my area that isn't the most likely threat. Either way, I have a Mossberg 500 12 ga. under the bed. And I'm a light sleeper.
Where are you(general area)?
Chris
Cobradriver | 01.17.09 - 7:32 pm | #
Zip 69101 Check out Realtor.com We have had a tolerable bubble (10-20%) but I and still waiting for the dirty deals. I am not a slum lord as my property manager loves me because I fix what ever is needed. Modest properties fit the income dynamics of local service workers. If you want a killer McMansion $500K will do it possibly on a mini lake shore. Yes I know the weather is not CA or FLA but the living for me is easy. Four hour drive to Denver races. My business partner has a winter home in Sarasota he bought just before the bubble for $325K and told me one day it was worth $800K+. He also told me lots are being repoed. Surprise!
Cemex is hobbled with debt mostly due to acquisition of Rinker Materials for $17B in 2007. Rinker's assets were primarily in the US sunbelt, creating severe cash flow problems.
The multiple was around 12X earnings which was a record high for the industry.
"Now I'm wondering if I was too optimistic."
Broward Horne | Homepage | 01.17.09 - 7:32 pm | #
Broward,
I get a lot of shitty looks at work when I say..."No way I'm gonna buy now,please give me a good reason home prices will rise instead of falling more?" Nobody can. I am really starting to wonder where we end up. I also thought 40-60% was a lot. The number of empty lots that have sold at 86-87 prices(or less) if fucking frightening.
O.T.,Hendricks donated a Gordon car for charity...They are stuck at 400k on the bidding...Reggie Jackson just said he would add 5k on top of the winning bid.
Holy shit,a full blown race package was just added to the package. All courtesy of Hendricks. ANY race. Full vip treatment...looks like it ended at 500K.
Chris
Thanks everybody for sharing your thoughts; I will in turn think about what you said. Getting a gun does not really solve anything, and it takes time to learn how to use it effectively. Choosing where to live is probably even more important.
With the mp organization moving to Defcon 3, I guess these might well be more important decisions than thinking about the F/X allocation of your portfolio (insert emoticon of your choice here)
I think despite the gasoline price runup, that rural Americans actually had one of their strongest years on record in 2008 economically
Um, remember the bull run in commodities? The gasoline runup is part of the reason rural areas had their one of their best years economically. Let's see how they do this year...
Chris
Cobradriver | 01.17.09 - 7:32 pm | #
Sad thing is the Hendricks car probably has every exploder part (Used up) in the shop in it.
"I think despite the gasoline price runup, that rural Americans actually had one of their strongest years on record in 2008 economically"
Seven dollar corn, ten dollar wheat is gone. Ethanol plants going BK. Next couple of years and they will be back to normal.
My business partner has a winter home in Sarasota he bought just before the bubble for $325K and told me one day it was worth $800K+. He also told me lots are being repoed. Surprise!"
Economist Moe Howard 3SU | 01.17.09 - 7:43 pm | #
I work in Sarasota. It is going to get really ugly over the next couple of years. They have been immune somewhat to date. But I see lots of cracks developing.
Chris
Sad to see a great airline go down such as Lithuanian. They by far have the most beautiful flight attendants of all services. Partially due to credit freeze.
ostly I've seen having a gun in the house have led to tragic outcomes
Your view is skewed. People like me never call you. I've pointed a handgun twice with intent to shoot.
Luckily, both times my target decided it was a bad risk and moved quickly on to some other hapless fellow.
.
For Werner from last thread:
German Warning for Russia: Maintain Europes Gas Flow
By JUDY DEMPSEY and STEPHEN CASTLE
Published: January 16, 2009
BERLIN Germany, the Western European country with the closest ties to the Kremlin, warned Russia on Friday to abide by its contractual relations, saying its reputation as a reliable supplier of gas could no longer be taken for granted as a result of the two-week gas dispute between Ukraine and Russia that has left millions of homes without heat.
Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, who met Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in Berlin on Friday evening, made it clear that Russias credibility was now on the line. We have to restore trust and responsibility, she said before the meeting. A government spokesman, Thomas Steg, said Friday that it was crucial that both Ukraine and Russia abide by their contractual obligations.
- NY Times
and now sarasota has it's very own madoff
While I believe your opinion is important for a family situation (teenagers sneaking out of windows at all times during the night), for someone older and living alone, a weapon is critical...
The old are targets for teenage home burglaries...and for older women in purse snatching around paycheck time at the local grocery store...
Nova; Got a good education in England. Used to buy for London dealers who couldn't make it to the country auctions. Glass (and some really old ceramics) are my weakness.
But you can't eat glass, which might be a concern if deflation is our future. Might be good for barter tho. You never know.
Thank you CR, I can't begin to tell you how sick I of hearing that meme I have become. It's one of my patrons favorites, they look so confused when I explain the concept of Derivatives and the fact that there are over 500 Trillion dollars worth of them involved...
I'm hearing more and more people speaking of stockpiling food now, I had a customer today tell me he's bought eight cows in the past month. He owns a carpet/tile store. Not your typical "dairy" farmer...
energyecon - Putin offered Ukraine 20% off the European price provided Ukraine keeps its transit fee at the 2008 level, and now both sides expect the gas flow to resume on Monday.
Sad to see a great airline go down such as Lithuanian. They by far have the most beautiful flight attendants of all services. Partially due to credit freeze.
Anonymous | 01.17.09 - 7:57 pm | #
-----
Link? Haven't seen any news about airlines in WSJ or Bloomberg.
yagij - this is just one "e.g." Lithuania's main airline, FlyLAL, to cease operations
Cobradriver | 01.17.09 - 7:55 pm | #
The last time I talked to him he was telling me his brother a retired oil company VP was calling for doom in the stock market and economy. He was laughing till I said you bet this suckers is going to blow. I have been wondering what he did as he is heavy in to the market. He is smart and fast on his feet but I will rag him a bit for fun.
My guess is 2012 we may hit bottom and then we crawl. I look at it this way, we are trying to absorb 10 years of false growth. Top being roughly 2006 in housing, draws a line back to 1996 plus normal inflation for proper growth. The over shoot may be another 5 years. Everything including wages have to contract backwards to a base. I hope I am very wrong but I don't think they can hide the rotten Easter egg anymore. They are trying.
To answer the gun question from earlier in the thread:
I'll take my chances with the gun over without. I know how to handle weapons and have been doing so since I was a kid (Dad was a cop and military). My husband grew up on the North side of St. Louis in gang territory and has his share of tales to tell on the issue. We are both well armed and trained with weapons. I would not want to be the one entering our home uninvited
ZL-1 Copo is struggling....
Speaking of Bloomberg...
Film, Porn Shoots Sought by Los Angeles Homeowners Hit by Slump Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Jayshree Gupta reclined on an English-style sofa in her Beverly Hills penthouse as crews buzzed around taping protective paper over the hardwood floors and wheeling in crates of camera gear. She was hosting a television-commercial shoot. It meant allowing dozens of strangers and 400-pound klieg lights into her home for a full day, and it was worth every minute, Gupta said. âI am doing it because I need money to maintain my lifestyle," she said, perched near a portrait of herself painted by her friend Barbara Carrera, the Bond girl in 1983's âNever Say Never Again." âA lot of my money is either gone or tied up. Right now I am hurting." (Emphasis Mine)-----It's amazing how WS wouldn't let some big money pr0n folks on their exchanges due to puritanical improprieties, but as soon as money is needed, no one seems to mind opening their door to the pr0n and its dirty, dirty money... /sarcasm
ESCHATON
Is that,
Escape with your hat on?
Scrolled through it.
Apart from everybody eles's opinions does Atrios have any of its own?
Comrade Kristina writes:
I'm hearing more and more people speaking of stockpiling food now, I had a customer today tell me he's bought eight cows in the past month. He owns a carpet/tile store. Not your typical "dairy" farmer...
This vegetable seed company is selling a pack of seeds called Victory Gardens for food shortages.
They know something?
Park Seed: Seeds and plants for vegetable, flower, annual and perennial gardening.
"and now sarasota has it's very own madoff"
Anonymous | 01.17.09 - 7:59 pm | #
350M. Freakin rookie
.
Reggie Jackson is selling his 69 ZL1/COPO Camaro. This is 1 of 50 built. Last year this was a 600K+ car easy...WOW,they are seriously stuck at 200...it has crawled to 280...it took forever to get 290k...
Yep,the froth is leaving the collector car market...
Chris
"Riots and street battles are set to spread through Bulgaria, Romania and the Baltic states as inflation, unemployment and racism fuel tension, reports Jason Burke."
Eastern Europe braced for a violent 'spring of discontent' |
World news |
The Observer
slack jaw writes:
"Riots and street battles are set to spread through Bulgaria, Romania and the Baltic states as inflation, unemployment and racism fuel tension, reports Jason Burke."
Not to mention watching family members freeze their ass off and needing something to do to stay warm! Let's smash things and set fires mmmmmm toasty!
"ZL-1 Copo is struggling...."
crispy&cole | Homepage | 01.17.09 -
The '69 Yenko is stuck at 245...well it looks like it made 270K. Nice haircut also...
Chris
Paradigm Lost | 01.17.09 - 8:01 pm
We have 2 stained glass windows from England. Still in their frames. Came out of houses. The dealer had a lot of them. Apparently there was a big move to rip them out and replace them with energy efficent ones.
My wife really likes glass. She is on a mission to stock up on Waterford since they are toast.
Economist Moe: Re hiding the rotten egg...I smell sulfur, don't you.
Great Merill report. Saved it to send to family, friends. Was struck by the words "Generational change" and "secular shift". Seeing it in other things, too.
Britain on the edge. Unlike America, cannot do what it likes because the pound is not the world's reserve currency:
Comment is free: Will Hutton: Unless we are decisive Britain faces bankruptcy |
Comment is free |
The Observer
Can you grow marijuana with 400-pound klieg lights?
"Riots and street battles are set to spread through Bulgaria"
Damn it.
Why doesn't this ever happen to D.C.?
.
Reggie Jackson just said he would add 5k on top of the winning bid.
nuf said
Why doesn't this ever happen to D.C.?
It has before and may again.
FYI, they are called Palmetto Bugs, and like everything good in Charleston, only come out, dressed in black, after 5......
As far as guns, the louder the cycling action of chambering a round is inversly proportionate to the length of time spent in your house by would be robber...
Just got back from the annual Phoenix Barret Jackson auto auction.
Brutal.
I'm estimating foot traffic was down 25% compared to last year. Vendors were noticeably less busy.
In 2007 and 2008 it seemed like nothing went for less than 100K on the big day of the show. This year it was rare for things to crack 100K. There was none of the frenetic bidding as in years past.
2007 auction revenues were $111 million, 2008 were $88 million. This year will be way less.
"nuf said"
Dope Alert | 01.17.09 - 8:21 pm |
Just so we are on the same page that was a 5K direct donation to the charity,not a 5K bid increase...
Chris
I'm so far behind on threads, but I make a point of reading Byz_Ruins.
Spent last week at a job training program sponsored by California Employment Development Department (EDD).
Great program btw - discovered that interviewing and resume techniques and procedures have VASTLY changed in last 5 years. Optical readers look at resumes and if not enough key words are in there - bzzzzzz - off to the shitpile your resume goes, even if you might be the most qualified applicant. You have to tailor the resume to the job description, and put it on the first page. Even if you hit a "live" person, your resume has 8-12 seconds to catch their eyes with buzz words, or again bzzzzzzz. Anyone on this board looking for work in CA try to get into the "Experience Unlimited" program.
Anyways- at the pizza party at the end, one of the trainers asked informally if anyone wanted to go practice shooting.
2 of the 3 women wanted to go to the range, right then. Phil was neither macho nor suave, but I was surprised by their avid interest.
I'm going, too. This is south Orange County, land of the Real Housewives.
Can you grow marijuana with 400-pound klieg lights?
Broward Horne | Homepage | 01.17.09 - 8:20 pm | #
Who knows. This is like asking if Swiss made Olympic class .223s are accurate to 1100 yards. Either of both could be true but none who knows one or the other ain't talkin'.
Great line from above link from 1929'r
It's almost worth the Great Depression to learn how little our big men know.
- Will Rogers
slack jaw | 01.17.09 - 8:19 pm
They seem to be really pumping up the fear factor in the UK. Either they know something or they are following Paulsons playbook.
I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the darkness at Tannhäuser Gate. All those moments will be lost in time like tears in rain. Time to die.
[Bird flies off...]
I just saw several people shopping for food and they looked very hungry!
from slack jaw | 01.17.09 - 8:19 pm
These are the grimmest economic circumstances since the 1930s. Lives and businesses are being wrecked as I write. There will be little appetite for my proposed measures; how much better to hope that we can muddle through, looking for "green shoots" of recovery and doing little radical.
ok...much better. lol.
I hope top bidder likes reggies charity.
Re: 400-pound klieg lights?
Are these people fucking stupid? I've never seen a 400 pound light and if there is such a thing, you can bet your ass they wouldn't have the cash to rent one for a porn movie.
Wake up people; think and don't believe this shit!
There's something that doesn't quite jive, so I'll throw it out for comments.
The recent crash in retail sales would imply that discretionary spending was a significant portion of consumer spending, in fact a larger portion than in the past since such cliff-diving seems to be unprecedented. But Elizabeth Warren (whose work I greatly respect) has found that in the last 40 years the fraction of household spending considered discretionary has gone down.
The New Economics of the American Family
Assuming her research is valid, the American consumer must be VERY scared in order to pull the purse strings so tight.
To many I personally knew who did it on credit...
Cobradriver | 01.17.09 - 7:03 pm | #
OH, that would be an awful situation to be in. Time to hock the family jewles or your one true love? I bet the divorce rate this year hits a new record.
I imagine they meant a 400 watt light ... these retards are on drugs and I bet a thousand pounds of dope that they have AIDS, etc
Nova: Your wife's my kinda gal. Was real sad to read the trouble at Waterford/Wedgwood/Royal Doulton/Rosenthal, et al. Fine old companies. The older pieces of Waterford were of superb quality although the cutting has declined over time, of course. Still, few did that kind of cutting anymore. Many years ago, I took a tour of their factory. Prices were high even then.
Optical readers look at resumes and if not enough key words are in there - bzzzzzz - off to the shitpile your resume goes, even if you might be the most qualified applican
One of the really big problems with Mish's "free market" fanaticism is that he just doesn't get what's really happening.
People who spend time on politics, "reputation" and tricking the system are displacing anyone who actually wastes time on skills or work.
The past two years I've had several foreign-born recruiters who insisted that I "tweak" my resume but for the most part I refused.
But what I've seen is that gangs of gamers get the jobs. They support each others claims, etc, etc.
It's unreal to watch.
It's so IN-efficient compared to ten years ago that I feel like I'm living in some kind of sick, twisted movie.
.
Can you grow marijuana with 400-pound klieg lights?
Broward Horne | Homepage | 01.17.09 - 8:20 pm | #
No. Indoor growers use either high pressure sodium vapour bulbs, metal halide bulbs or fluorescents. With just 4 27 watt soft white compact fluorescent bulbs you can yield about two ounces of kind bud if you know what you're doing.
An update: They are breaking, and in ever increasing numbers.
Picosec post..
The strategy of middle class families to build their own safety nets is failing. It is no longer possible for both mom and dad to work, to buy a home in a decent neighborhood, to commit to health insurance and car payments, and to survive if something goes wrong. These parents are struggling, but they are not broken. They are hard workers, but the rules they played by are no longer the rules that govern financial success for the middle class. In a single generation, the world has changed, and these families are struggling to adapt. They committed themselves to thrift and hard work in exchange for a promise of economic security and a better future for their children. That promise has disappeared. There was a time when families sent mothers into the workplace only in times of distress. Today, women go to work every day just to maintain a tenuous grasp on a middle-class life. Plenty of families make it, but a growing number of those who worked just as hard and followed the rules just as carefully find themselves in a financial nightmare.
I bet the divorce rate this year hits a new record.
depends, splitting the debt is a pain in the ass; no one wants the house. also, most family lawyers don't operate on a payment plans.
Roy writes:
"I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the darkness at Tannhäuser Gate. All those moments will be lost in time like tears in rain. Time to die."
I saw exactly the same thing of Graves End.
Is there another universe were every American who doesn't like the Depression dosen't have a semi-auutomatic weapon?
Thank God for England.
God save our gracious Queen......
Boudicca - Your people need you. Also if you have Arthurs cell phone number...
Broward -
Tweak is necessary. But not the way you might think. Rather than game the system by lying on the resume, but by re-formatting to something called a 'modified functional'. Paragraph of transferrable skills in front after a paragraph that essentially cops the job description, followed by chronological job history with small bullets containing skill sets practiced at each job.
Cheating is something different.
"Why doesn't this ever happen to D.C.?"
Hey, we live here. It's a real city with real people, not a symbol.
There probably is a business opportunity out there for tasteful, decorative window bars.
I use these in my porno movies all the time:
Used MAC 500 Profile For Sale
For those of you who read the report from Merrill, the following section on deflation left me confused. Is "growth in aggregate demand" really expected to exceed "available supply" in the near term? Wouldn't that be inflationary?
Deflation will be a more enduring theme than most realize
It is perfectly understandable, but still dangerous, to be clueless about the mechanism that determines whether we experience inflation or deflation. Even with the upcoming stimulus, this economy, which has been growing below potential since June 2006, will very likely continue to do so this year and into next year as well. This means a sustained widening in the output gap; in other words, growth in aggregate demand exceeding available supply, higher unemployment rates and lower capacity utilization rates will be a reality as far as the eye can see.
Later in the paper, they state this.
Far too early to be talking about the next inflation cycle
To get the inflation that many are worried about, the policy stimulus is going to have to go beyond just plugging holes in a leaky boat to reviving growth in domestic demand to a rate that exceeds the growth rate of aggregate supply (labor force + productivity growth). The problem is not one of supply, it is about insufficient demand. And that is why it is far too early to be talking about the next inflation cycle. The consumer represents 70% of that demand, and were learning a lot about the consumer with each and every passing data point; to say that frugality has replaced frivolity has become an understatement.
What am I missing?
God save our gracious Queen,
Here here ol boy and may she have skirtcam installed ASAP
ova | Homepage | 01.17.09 - 8:39 pm
~~~~
Elizabeth Warren is a national treasure ...
She also called out the big boys on TARP transparency ...
~~~~~
Elizabeth Warren for Sec Treasury ... easy call ...
Picosec: Saved the Warren report. There was a brief period of time when the wife's paycheck meant a vacation or a new pool. You could live off the man's salary alone, but the wife's paycheck brought home the goodies.
"Great Merill report. Saved it to send to family, friends. Was struck by the words "Generational change" and "secular shift". Seeing it in other things, too."
Paradigm Lost | 01.17.09 - 8:19 pm | #
I felt a big change in the early nineties as businesses fell off and workable young people turned into Day Care. It no longer mattered if you produced a good service, The cheapest guy was right. Glad I bailed, my friends still fight every day.
Is there another universe were every American who doesn't like the Depression dosen't have a semi-auutomatic weapon?
Thank God for England.
God save our gracious Queen.....
Boudicca | 01.17.09 - 8:39 pm | #
1) who likes a Depression?
2) Semi-automatic weapons are cool.
3) That UK gun ban didn't work out as planned, did it? Knives next, then what, knitting needles.
Elizabeth Warren is a national treasure ...
mmckinl | 01.17.09 - 8:51 pm | #
Why, is she hot?
Interview with Elizabeth Warren
Ok, maybe a few years ago..
Paulson said he had to make it attractive to banks, which is code for Im going to give money away, said Joseph Stiglitz, who won a Nobel Prize in 2001 for his work on the economic value of information.
The worst aspect of this is that they were designed not to do what they were supposed to do, he said in a telephone interview from Paris Jan. 7. If Paulson was still an employee of Goldman Sachs and hed done this deal, he would have been fired.
While the government has pledged to recover its investments, Congress provided little guidance on how to accomplish that. Legislation mandated that the Treasury receive warrants in order to acquire shares in companies tapping the program. The law didnt specify how many warrants or how they should be priced, factors that will determine how much money, if any, taxpayers get in exchange for their risk.
The government has received warrants valued at $13.8 billion in the 25 biggest capital injections from TARP, according to Bloomberg data. Under the terms Buffett negotiated for his $5 billion stake in Goldman Sachs, the TARP certificates would have been worth $130.8 billion.
404 Error, No such article | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle
$13.8 billion in the 25 biggest capital injections from TARP, according to Bloomberg data. Under the terms Buffett negotiated for his $5 billion stake in Goldman Sachs, the TARP certificates would have been worth $130.8 billion.
Anonymous | 01.17.09 - 8:56 pm | #
Dimes on the dollar, nice. Buffets deal should have been the stadard. Any bank that holds out for a better deal gets none.
Except that lowered credit standards and increased lending increased the percentage of, for example, retail sales that were driven by people's ability to borrow against their home's increasing equity (don't forget, by definition, and like all bubbles, this one was increasing until pretty much the end, so people who took out these stupid loans may have looked like geniuses for a time.) Widespread declining home values are a much bigger drag on national wealth and spending at all levels.
The Democrats are up to their ears in the causes of this crisis, which is not to say Greenspan and everyone else don't have roles. But forcing banks to make loans based more on an applicant's zip code than on their credit scores (to avoid allegations of redlining) had the effect of creating a lot of money at all levels of consumption that was not worth owning when the music stopped.
Knives next, then what, knitting needles.
bobn | Homepage | 01.17.09 - 8:54 pm | #
Somewhere between knives and knitting came male genitallia, apparently.
Putin offered Ukraine 20% off the European price provided Ukraine keeps its transit fee at the 2008 level, and now both sides expect the gas flow to resume on Monday.
MrM | 01.17.09 - 8:02 pm | #
"Riots and street battles are set to spread through Bulgaria, Romania and the Baltic states as inflation, unemployment and racism fuel tension, reports Jason Burke."
slack jaw | 01.17.09 - 8:12 pm | #
It's the knock-on effects that are just beginning to be felt...the economically borderline eastern European states have had over a week of instant depression with the gas cutoff...it will be interesting to see if this generates increased coherence in the EU in energy and particularly in other areas.
it will be interesting to see if this generates increased coherence in the EU in energy and particularly in other areas.
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 01.17.09 - 9:02 pm | #
When does the EU kick the American military out and pay for thier own to take care of thier own?
"Lucifer,
No mention of ungrateful Indian immigrants whose sole stated goal is to milk the system while advocating genocide in their spare time "
this is the joker who steals handles. he drove the much respected EvilHenryPaulson away, and has been steading KCanuck's handle recently.
The Canadians saw him for what he was and rejected him...so he's parked his worthless self here.
By the end of this year subprime will be a forgotten word.
Anonymous | 01.17.09 - 5:22 pm | #
I do not belive it. There is no way TPTB are going to give up on blaming this on lower class borrowers. FOX, CNN, and CNBC will not let that meme die.
Nigel: Buncha baloney with a smidge of truth. We've hashed this one out before.
Zombie lies never die, do they?
Anonymous | 01.17.09 - 5:30 pm | #
Not when the existence of the Republican part depends on it, no.
Is that you Rush Limbaugh?
crispy&cole | Homepage | 01.17.09 - 5:32 pm | #
If McNabb is not a real quarterback, what do you think his views of O' will be. Makes me think of Boss Hogg for some reason. Sure would like to see Rush in an all white suit.
Economist Moe: Culture is kinda like the weather here in flyover. Wait just a minute & it'll change. I remember the 70s when we bashed up Japanese cars and whole industrial towns were just curling up to die. Many never made it back. But somehow we survived.
Boudicca(Unrated) writes:
Is there another universe were every American who doesn't like the Depression dosen't have a semi-auutomatic weapon?
We learned from gacking the Indians. Come and divvy up our resources while we're down. Welcome to the New Gaza Strip, AKA the Boston Atlanta Metropolitan Axis, where cop and gangbanger alike are down with seeing foreign mercenary vehicles die in anti-armor ambushes.
You ain't never gonna see it because nobody would be insane enough to even begin to try. I'm pretty happy with the guns situation, thanks. Stay offen our land.
But forcing banks to make loans based more on an applicant's zip code than on their credit scores (to avoid allegations of redlining) had the effect of creating a lot of money at all levels of consumption that was not worth owning when the music stopped.
Nigel Tufnel | 01.17.09 - 9:01 pm | #
The CRA didn't do this. Wrong time, wrong place, wrong types of loans. See here, here, and here
. "CRA == Subprime" is a right-wingnut wet-dream, and sub-prime isn't even the biggest part of the problem
I remember the 70s when we bashed up Japanese cars and whole industrial towns were just curling up to die. Many never made it back. But somehow we survived.
Paradigm Lost
~~~~
This time it is the entire country, and most of the world ...
You ain't never gonna see it because nobody would be insane enough to even begin to try. I'm pretty happy with the guns situation, thanks. Stay offen our land.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.17.09 - 9:15 pm | #
CBR and I agree on something - red letter date.
I'm going to become a realtor, any advice out there?
I'm going to become a realtor, any advice out there?
Anonymous | 01.17.09 - 9:21 pm | #
1) Bullet proof armor
2) Work for banks doing REO.
Widespread declining home values are a much bigger drag on national wealth and spending at all levels.
Nigel Tufnel | 01.17.09 - 9:01 pm | #
WOW! Is this satire? This one goes to eleven kind of thing?
Ooohhh
Touchy thoucy ?
Did Boudicca annoy little america.
Is Boudicca right?
America is just a naughty little boy.
It needs ENGLAND to show the way.
Now drink your coco and go to bed.
Roubini is a scary mofo. He says that the banks need another trillion to recapitalize themselves out of insolvency.
"Wait just a minute & it'll change. I remember the 70s when we bashed up Japanese cars and whole industrial towns were just curling up to die. Many never made it back. But somehow we survived."
Paradigm Lost | 01.17.09 - 9:10 pm | #
I think we will survive but this time we have not only financial problems intertwined around the world, we have results of uncontrolled illegal immigration in a bubble amount as well. Many are talking of riots from import gangs as well as many others have animosity to settle the score of rich and poor. I am afraid the 70's may have been a walk in the park in comparison. The change in news media and the internet that has brought us together with instant info and discussions is extremely hard for the government to play games in secret only for us to read about them in a week or month from now. We know now and are better educated. Scary different this time.
"I'm going to become a realtor, any advice out there?"
Kind of like being on the Pro Bowler diet, no winnings no eating.
Economist Moe Howard 3SU writes:
Spoken like a true American.