$117/sq ft.? Isn't that really cheap for freeway-adjacent real estate in Orange County? At those prices it seems to me like it would be sensible to do a stripmall analogue to loft conversions. Condos are still fetching well about $200 here.
Yeah, how does he do it?
Last night he had a "spidey" feeling that there would be a new thread. He probably reads CR's mind. I won't go so far to say that he is CR.
In Whatcom county (once a boom area) we have many brand-spankin-new strip malls with nothing but one-product storefronts. Must-haves like "Dream Decks" and custom stainless/granite/tile doohickeys and vinyl fence/pergolas/spa enclosures.
Most of them were open about 5 minutes before the fire sale signs went up. Many are now empty and for lease.
The post about the concrete industry (yesterday?) reminded me of my wingnut neighbor, whose nephew was just laid off from a concrete company. No work for months, and one skeleton crew on the payroll.
We had a garage built last March, and when they pulled the permit, it was the only one that month.
This reminds me of the Pacific Design Center, better known as the Blue Whale.
I remember when this was built in West Hollywood, seems like 30 years ago. It has flirted with bankruptcy multiple times as I recall.
A monument to overpriced designer furnishings and other useless extravagances such as the MOCA. They were still trying to finish building out to the master plan with a new phase beginning in 2006. No idea if it ever was completed.
Whah? Treasuries are priced in dollars. If they crash, they crash against dollars. If our currency crashes, others are winning, or maybe commodities. What is a production glut crisis? And if you see deflation, how does the currency collapse instead of getting stronger?
....indoor malls would make perfect exclusive secure communities. Climate controlled, easily vegetated, clear lines of sight, clean fields of fire - perfect for a "new millennium enclave"
Sure, freeway-adjacent is bad for a family with 2 kids and a dog. But it's good for most businesses, and acceptable for space-intensive home business like artists and refurbishers (ie traditional loft uses).
Rob Dawg writes:
"SPG and their Camarillo Premium Outlet Mall(s). A 30% expansion is coming on line in April."
Hoo boy, is that going to be interesting. What are they planning to fill the space with, auto dealerships?
How many ice skating rinks does Camarillo need?
I live really close to "Blue Whale" and there is a massive amount of construction going on there right now - not sure what specifically is being added though.
"We had a garage built last March, and when they pulled the permit, it was the only one that month."
Joanna | Homepage | 01.21.09 - 3:35
Joanna,
I had forgot about these numbers until you posted...The boom and breakup in North Port,Fl(Sarasota County). These numbers are for the city only. It's a freaking bloodbath.
RISE AND FALL OF NORTH PORT GROWTHNorth Port housing permits issued:
Well, the Camarillo outlet could convert the extra space into a post-apocalyptic participatory theme park with paintball and zombies vs. human games. Could be a pretty functional anchor.
"I see dead money. They don't know they're dead."
hc | 01.21.09 - 3:25 pm |
what poker pros call amateurs, innit?
...indoor malls would make perfect exclusive secure communities. Climate controlled, easily vegetated, clear lines of sight, clean fields of fire - perfect for a "new millennium enclave"
Black Star Ranch | 01.21.09 - 3:36 pm
this actually strikes me as a good idea. the actual configuration of retail space is virtually limitless in those places. the biggest problem might be making drop ceilings secure, or replacing them. put one-way glass in the windows viewing the pedestrian spaces. intersperse residential spaces with commercial ones selling necessities and niceties...
first fella to build one in the right pplace might make a buncha money...
Fair Economist writes:
$117/sq ft.? Isn't that really cheap for freeway-adjacent real estate in Orange County? At those prices it seems to me like it would be sensible to do a stripmall analogue to loft conversions. Condos are still fetching well about $200 here.
Fair Economist | Homepage | 01.21.09 - 3:31 pm | #
That is almost where a live/work lofts makes sense(> $100 sqft with fees). We have faux lofts here is Sacramento asking $500 sqft plus 400 mo assoc fees! WTF?
My best supposition is CR uses a composing tool that is "live", in that it creates a file when he begins an entry, and Nemo has a script that spots new file handles getting "touch"ed.
I bought a couch there about 6 months ago. At that time, 2 of the remaining stores had "going out of business" sales and there was almost no traffic in any of the stores. I can't imagine things have improved since then.
one of the greatest sources of schadenfreude I enjoyed prior to the Busheviks slinking out of DC yesterday was the plight of poor Tom Friedman, whose wife's family fortune shrank 95% in a week: from several billions down to mere dozens of millions.
I was just driving by this place today. Empty, empty, empty ghost town, as usual. I don't know why the remaining stores even bother sticking around. They are way below critical mass.
I'm sure they wish they had all those customers that keep jamming the parking lot of the Ikea a couple blocks to the south.
My best supposition is CR uses a composing tool that is "live", in that it creates a file when he begins an entry, and Nemo has a script that spots new file handles getting "touch"ed. The_Littlest_Mandarin | 01.21.09 - 3:57 pm | #
Hmmm, and Nemo started this right after he met CR in San Francisco. Co-incidence?
"Fair Economist writes:
Wasn't the Wickes on the other side of the 405, on the south? Did they move? I could have sworn they were still in that location when they went under."
Wickes used to be off the 405 and Harbor on the west side of the freeway, but that location closed years ago when they moved over to the new furniture center (fairly close to their old location, just on the other side of the freeway.
CR is right, the location is pretty good, it's literally right on the freeway and the signage is good. Unfortunate theme/timing.
Then again I don't think there is a mall theme that can work in this environment, just furniture is much worse than most anything else.
wow. take an afternoon nap and i now see that my FAS is up 27% for the day. too bad I thought the Obama rally would start yesterday, so i'm still underwater =)
The bummer part about our little boom is that it wrecked acres & acres of lovely farmland. Now what could be used to feed people is covered in empty rotting McMall-Mansions.
remember when they opened the lazer tag place in OC in the old anchor store in Fountain Valley? This was back in the 80s? There's your biz model ready to go .
That is almost where a live/work lofts makes sense(> $100 sqft with fees). We have faux lofts here is Sacramento asking $500 sqft plus 400 mo assoc fees! WTF?
My pet peeve is live-"work" where the "work" space is a handicapped-accessible bathrooom and enough room for a cubicle. And oh yes, the prices!
They built one of those furniture thingy's in an old GM plant in Van Nuys. Flew over it ~4PM last week. Empty. This is a party everyone can join, just like the last one...only not as much fun.
Come to think of it...maybe party is the wrong word....
Those loans could wind up costing the states unemployment fund more than $100 million in interest and could result in a punitive tax on all employers across the state two years from now
Say it isn't so, Barry! First the FISA cop out, then Gates, now this continuation of financier bailouts! Ach, I weep for the world. Can we get a few lines of Yeats in here to give voice to our collective angst? You know, some of that "center cannot hold" stuff. Chokes me up every time.
touch (Unix)
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia touch is a standard Unix program used to change a file's access and modification timestamps. It is also used to create a new empty file.
If I had to guess what Nemo is doing, he's checking the RSS feed every x seconds, sending a signal to his machine when the feed is ready (a beep?), then making a short comment in a ready to type input based on the subject and a quick summary of the content.
If RSS isn't fast enough, there are HTML mining tools available that can do the same with a little more diligence.
Fair, I had a live/work in LA back in 90-93. 1100 sqft for $425 mo. They never raised my rent I was the only tenant they had who paid on time. This was a gorgeous 1924 brick retrofitted building and indoor parking. I miss industrial skylights. Price/space is what makes a loft project work, not 'lifestyle' choices.
OT: I told everyone that I would update the key earnings numbers today, so here are the key points:
\tTrends are terrible, 2009 expectations fall 1.6% in 2 market days
\tEarnings Expectations are Collapsing for both 4Q and 2009
\t4Q total net income expected to be 29.4% below year ago
\tEarly reports (51 total) are ugly, total net income -3.6B so far
\t27% firms to report so far have red ink, 75% of Financials in the red
\tRevisions Ratios fall for both 2009 and 2010, both extremely low
\tTotal net income in 09, now expected to be 1.7% below 2008, but in reality will most likely be down much more (perhaps just move the decimal point)
\tP/Es based on 2009 estimates will prove to be to low as E plunges
\tFinancials red ink so far is more than 3x year ago levels.
\tBottom up estimate for S&P 500 now $72.41 in 2009, down from $73.62 last Thursday, I expect it to be less than $60.
Total Net Income Growth
\tTotal net income expected to fall 29.4% in fourth quarter from a year ago, was -23.7% on Thursday
\tNegative year over year growth in 4Q now expected for six sectors
\tFinancials expect high growth due to easy comps, but gush red ink in early going
\tFull year net income in 2009 expected to be down 1.7% from 2008 levels, following a 11.6% decline in 2008
\t1Q total net income now expected to be 15.1% below a year ago, was -13.7% on Thursday
\t Energy, Materials and Discretionary all expected to be down over 40% in 4Q
\tExcluding Financials total net income down 15.5% from a year ago
\tEarly returns very ugly, the 51 (10.2%) that have reported are showing red ink of $3.7B aggregate vs. total earnings of $11.2B a year ago and $20.2B in 3Q
\tEarly 2010 expectations looks for 19.4% growth over 2009
\tIndex changes mask size of earnings decline in 2008 (MER, WB, NCC, AIG gone)
The Zacks Revisions Ratio: 2009
\tRevisions ratio for full S&P 500 down to 0.14, from 0.16 last week
\tAll sectors have at least 4 cuts per increase
\t9 sectors have at least 5 cuts for every increase
\t17.2% of all firms see mean estimate decline by more than 10%, 9.6% more than 20%
\tRatio of firms with rising to falling mean estimates at 0.23, up from 0.16 from last week
\tTotal number of revisions (4 week total) down to 1,876 from 1958 (-4.2%)
\tIncreases down to 237 from 268 (-11.6%), cuts down to 1,639 from 1,690 (-3.0%)
Now that SRS and SKF crashed can we please get a long explanation as to why inverse ETFs are the spawn of satan? And why you shouldn't use them unless you have a double PHD in mathematics and astro-physics?
Nope he just uses perl (or a webget/curl system call) to create an array of urls and has a counter that sends an email notification when the loop +1s. If his skills are really mad he could have the script directly open a commenting window in the url via firefox (linux) or safari (mac). Few perl monks run winblows.
The slumping economy claimed another huge chunk of Wisconsin employees this past week, according to the latest list of layoff notices released Tuesday by the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development.
With the new layoffs, the filings of job losses made to the state DWD so far in 2009 total 2,451 employees. Through Jan. 20 last year, companies had filed notices of job losses affecting 651 employees.
270% increase, what a difference a year makes...
Jim Doyle will need another term to correct this mess.
p.s. As of SKF & SRS, you ve got to remember that those are traded purely on expectations.
When people expect the end of the world, those are up. When .... (there is nothing magical in here, those investments are as speculative as it gets.)
Hey deflationary jane - what's happening with houses in Davis? We are renting from a guy who moved there and I think his wife beats him every night for not buying a house there.
So now he's kicking us out of our rental elsewhere so it will be easier to sell, except that his would-be-interior-designer wife decorated it and this is not an area where garish colors, huge lawns, or gold chandeliers are popular.
Also is it that easy these days to be promoted to full prof? Landlord sure is counting on it.
Say what you will about Nemo's perl skillz, but it is his sense of humor that amazes me. Even if I had all day to think about the zingers he leads off with I couldn't do it. Hats off.
Whah? Treasuries are priced in dollars. If they crash, they crash against dollars. If our currency crashes, others are winning, or maybe commodities. What is a production glut crisis? And if you see deflation, how does the currency collapse instead of getting stronger?
Anonymous | 01.21.09 - 3:35 pm | #
-- Treasuries have Interest Rate risk. They can crash against interest rate regardless of dollars.
-- Dollars can crash against foreign currencies, yes. On a small scale, that should just make foreign currencies more expensive as some capital leaves USD.
On a large scale, it's trying to fit a large swimming pool into a multiple small cup problem.
The flight to foreign currencies can temporarily cause a shortage of foreign currencies, thereby making it un-tradeable, trapping a lot of money within USD itself. (Related unknown: who / which groups of countries can instantly provide all the liquidity of USD bubble that has been built up as a result of being the reserve currency???? Besides, a lot of the "stronger" currency countries had a lot of reserves in USD, which by the definition of this hypothesis, is now worthless -- so you have to grasp at why they're stable at being strong.)
-- Production glut crisis is what we have now. It's another way of viewing the consumption collapse. Globally we have too much production and demand just went poof. The adjustment of less production will cause raw materials and commodities to be under pressure until it's adjusted. (or until income raises from somewhere else)
-- Deflation in the rest of the world, but currency collapse in USD. It's the same backdrop we have now (deflation), except instead of USD getting stronger, you get USD collapsing.
(An unspoken assumption here is that by this time commodities may also be priced in something else, or trading breaks down into local currencies [instead of global exchange and settlement] is a possibility too)
Who says you cannot have everything dropping at once?
deflationary jane writes:
remember when they opened the lazer tag place in OC in the old anchor store in Fountain Valley? This was back in the 80s? There's your biz model ready to go .
Evraz Pipe Mfg. -100
Laser Optics Company -70
Teleflex Marine Closes Plant -93
3 Indiana Companies -300
Jeld-Wen Closing Door Plant -94
Cummins Inc. Closing WI Plant -180
Food Lion HQ -80
Brown Shoe Company -59
Johnstown Hospital -47
Alegent Health -292
TT Electronics -700
Squire Sanders Law Firm Cuts Staffers
LTX-Credence -40
Tyco Electronics Closing 2 Plants -2,500
Angus-Young Architects -9
Maryland Budget to Include 700 Layoffs
DuPont Old Hickory Plant -240
City of East Hartford -8
84 Lumber Closing More Stores
Excela Health -70
WestCast -140
5 Wisconsin Companies -1,159
BHP -6,000
New Round of Layoffs for Sony
Fairchild Semiconductor -70
Intel Shutting Philippine Plant -1,800
Buffalo NY Area Auto Suppliers Hammered -600
Madison WI Takes a Few Hits
RV Supplier Elixir Industries -44
Standard Candy Co. Shuts Plant -250
Colville Indian Plywood & Veneer -230
Meat Packer Shuts Down -8
The Odawa Casino Resort -80
Coos County Road Workers -22
John Deere -120
Laurel Crest Nursing Home -14
Volkswagen Temporarily Lays Off 26,000
ABX Air -30
FCI Inc. Moves Jobs to China -150
City of Simpsonville SC -12
STM -96
Tropicana Casino in NJ -117
Alcan -1,100
Sacramento Budget Shortfall = Layoffs
Sega -30
Piper Aircraft Inc. -150
FiberMark -30
Google China Laying Off
Temporary Layoffs at 17 Year High
Ericsson -5,000
XTRA Sports Staff All Fired
CNBC Mimics Layoffdaily.com
Yankee Candle -330
Filene's Basement
Sweetbay to Close 7 Stores -700
Imagine what would have happened if the market wasn't up today...
"If his skills are really mad he could have the script directly open a commenting window in the url via firefox (linux) or safari (mac)."
Why open a commenting window? Have the script send an HTTP POST request to HaloScan, drawing the text from a file of a few hundred fortune cookies. Provided you make the cookies neutral, so they go with everything (and let's face it, "They just need to hang on until the second half recovery" would work with 90% of what's getting posted on CR), the odds of anyone noticing are low.
Is Sterling About to Tank?"The danger is blindingly obvious. The $4.4 trillion of foreign liabilities accumulated by UK banks are twice the size of the British economy. UK foreign reserves are virtually nothing at $60.6bn."
Shockingly low amount of reserves...I didn't realize how low the UK was in this regard. This amount could be absorbed in a matter of hours in a currency run. I think Iceland-style default is a foregone conclusion; just the timing is unclear.
Considering gold as a store of value in these troubled times. 2/3 of the demand is for jewelry, so it does have a commodity dimension that is impacted by the slowdown. Add in deflation and it does seem like there's a lot of downside risk. It's frustrating that there's no obvious choice.
"... we believe that if the massive fiscal stimulus package being worked up in Congress is financed largely by the banking system and the Federal Reserve, there is a good chance the economy will begin to grow by the fourth quarter of this year and continue to do so throughout 2010. "
"It's frustrating that there's no obvious choice.
Currently Accounting | 01.21.09 - 4:30 pm | #
That might be a sign that diversification is your friend."
I'm a big believer in diversification. I like to diversify my losses across a broad swathe of asset classes. Currently I recommend real-estate (especially Northern California), the British pound, Irish financial companies and select Russian indexes.
MLM writes:
That might be a sign that diversification is your friend.
The theory of Diversification essentially depends on balancing away isolated risks (in individual stock, individual sectors, individual countries, etc) and ultimately trusting in the growth of the complete whole system -- the HUMAN CIVILIZATION stock, if you will.
Of course, if, as a whole, human civilization is growing, then Diversification will show yield.
What I don't understand is, what happens when there's:
A systemic risk that's infected the whole system?
An increase in social instability, war and crime from a historical LOW?
A "peak" in viable market size overall. In essence, Mainly due to demographics (and possibly credit), the short or mid term maximum purchase power of the world has been reached. (Countries or populations with no purchase power doesn't much contribute to this "market size")
I fail to see how Diversification deals with any of these.
If really boils down to whether you believe that we're in any (or all) of the 3 scenarios globally or not. If you believe they won't happen, then you believe in Diversification.
Personally, I feel like since a Black Swan event has occurred. I'm still trying to gauge the complete Black Swan outcome.
Would you predict the outcome of a "meteor hitting earth" event using convention data of even the worst volcano eruptions recorded in history?
The city itself and the school district is in big trouble. Davis had been sliding down quietly but picked up speed as the foreclosures are now more public. Rents are down, vacancies up, and my next door neighbor just had his 'perfect investment' duplex slapped with a tax lien. He's waking away from the income property as the only "income" is only coming out of his pocket and not into it. Seriously, 4Q10 to 1Q11 might be a good time to go shopping. It's when I'd go.
as far as full prof, depends on dept and who is retiring. Letter and Sciences not doing so well but CAES is holding it's breath waiting for Obmama handouts. Smaller depts with state fund depenances are laying off. My dept finally filled a slot after searching for 5 yrs. The wait could be long and the political milefield nasty.
citizen Kung Fu Panda writes:
Is Sterling About to Tank?"The danger is blindingly obvious. The $4.4 trillion of foreign liabilities accumulated by UK banks are twice the size of the British economy. UK foreign reserves are virtually nothing at $60.6bn."
I think this is how it happens. U.K. stumbles, regional panic, global panic, conjure clock noon.
you say we have a production glut, demand way off. To me, that just means the price is too high. You say commodities will be under pressure for a while, and if I guess against dollars, you say no the dollar collapses. The price of everything cannot simultaneously collapse because a price is just a relative value between two things. If one wins, one loses.
Would you predict the outcome of a "meteor hitting earth" event using convention data of even the worst volcano eruptions recorded in history? hc | 01.21.09 - 4:34 pm | #
No, but what would you do to protect yourself anyway? Use twice as much tinfoil?
Currently Accounting writes:
Considering gold as a store of value in these troubled times. 2/3 of the demand is for jewelry, so it does have a commodity dimension that is impacted by the slowdown. Add in deflation and it does seem like there's a lot of downside risk. It's frustrating that there's no obvious choice.
Currently Accounting | 01.21.09 - 4:30 pm | #
Exactly!!!
When the going gets tough and people are forced to pawn their jewelry onto the market (to get some money to buy food)
Suddenly the "frozen" 2/3 volume of gold is going to flood the market and crash the price of gold.
This is what the "physical gold" bulls don't want you to know.
That day is coming soon. India has the largest gold as jewelry market, and it's economy just went through their own Enron.
I see dead Goldbugs. They don't know they're dead.
you are talking out both sides of your mouth. gold collapses (in dollars), dollars collapse against everything, treasuries collapse (in dollars), foreign currencies deflate (like the GBP), yada yada blah blah.
You don't know what you're talking about, but I can tell you are excited by your idea.
transportation index dropped to new yearly lows again today before rebounding. A lot of technical analysis is pointing to 858s&p then on to the retest of lows and breaking. Fundamentals are pointing to 100 s&p eventually due to worldwide collapse.
So what will used up mall and strip mall contructions get converted to...
My vote...soup kitchens/hydroponic pot gardens. Comrade Janosik | 01.21.09 - 4:40 pm | #
C&C and I have been on this for years. Paintball. Non-occupied recreational vehicle storage ATVS, SUVs, motorcycles, ATVs, boats. Indoor model airplanes and race cars. I love the smell of two stokes in the morning, it smells, it smells like CRE implosion.
What do they have to lose? They are doubling down on their bets hoping people perceive that they are actually trying. Doesn't change my mind that they are horrible businessmen and their businesses should be bankrupted.
You say commodities will be under pressure for a while, and if I guess against dollars, you say no the dollar collapses. The price of everything cannot simultaneously collapse because a price is just a relative value between two things. If one wins, one loses.
Anonymous | 01.21.09 - 4:38 pm | #
Win-Lose trades assume a functioning trading system.
What I'm saying is that things will get to a point that a discontinuity occurs: whereby trades halt and things globally revert back to local economies, not linked, global, tradable economies.
If you cannot trade USD, and you have USD in a British safe AND there's a current "conversion crisis" of the dollar going on -- guess what happens to that value of USD?
A true collapse will always show up as discontinuous scenarios, where trading breaks down and "everything can be measured relative to everything else" is no longer a true statement.
Another way of thinking this:
Prior to global trade, life was on living standard X, trading locally, isolated trading systems, no universal price for everything. When we invented global economies, commodity exchanges and global trades, living standard grew prosperous and became X+n.
All I'm saying is a reversion to be closer to X for everyone involved in this system.
Hence, everything falls.
Don't believe me. The first untradable event will come up soon.
Bullshit. If I saw this coming and have made preparations including hard assets and food, when the dollar "collapses" my assets will be worth far more than your dollars and you will have lost. That you didn't have time to trade out of it on the day "it" happens doesn't mean other people didn't plan ahead of time.
squeezed writes:
Nope he just uses perl (or a webget/curl system call) to create an array of urls and has a counter that sends an email notification when the loop +1s. If his skills are really mad he could have the script directly open a commenting window in the url via firefox (linux) or safari (mac). Few perl monks run winblows.
An HTML window is overkill. You're only inputting one field: the body. The "Name" is hard coded, the other two fields aren't necessary (though they can be hardcoded as well).
Send an audible beep on a new article, switch to your terminal, and simply enter a message in a perl (or python) input. Take input and post directly to url.
S&P 500 profit estimates are still way to high. So are dividend expectations.
Angry Saver | 01.21.09 - 4:21 pm | #
Fully agree, the numbers I posted are the bottom up consuensus numbers for S&P 500 firms. Financials were at one point responsible for more than 30% of all S&P 500 earnings. Based on current expectations, they will be less than 8% of 2008 earnings, and that is massivly inflated since some of the biggest losers in 2008 have been kicked out of the index or bought out, lil fellas like AIG, FNM, FRE, BSC, LEH, MER, NCC, WB. Their losses are not included in the 08 numbers. Just before the last 3 were removed from the index, financials were expected to account for less than 4% of total S&P earnings in 08.
Clearly its news such as this story that have caused SPG and other REITS to rally today. It must be a buying opportunity of a lifetime for them - 65% off!! They can expand their footprint dramatically. As for the tenants to occupy that space....But the market likes it anyway.
Bullshit. If I saw this coming and have made preparations including hard assets and food, when the dollar "collapses" my assets will be worth far more than your dollars and you will have lost. That you didn't have time to trade out of it on the day "it" happens doesn't mean other people didn't plan ahead of time.
Anonymous | 01.21.09 - 4:50 pm | #
Can you use a handle instead of anonymous?
Planning doesn't solve the problem, because in the end you're part of a system.
You can shield yourself relatively for a short period of time, but thinking you can escape the collective descent is wishful thinking.
You have enough food for 30 years? Enough hard asset and raw materials to start your own industry in all your necessities?
When we're losing our collective ability to trade and conduct commerce, it is no different than if we've reverted back to a older period of time where modern market economies weren't invented yet. (and this is the impt part:) where everything is LESS AVAILABLE and MORE DIFFICULT to trade and quality of life goes out the window.
If you're still stuck in "begger thy neighbour" / "better than others" mode of thinking that "I can win if I trade / prepare correctly by buying the right stuff"...
The link re the UK reserves is Naked Capitalism referencing Pritchard in the Telegraph...I've no reason to doubt the magnitude of the mismatch. In the many news articles regarding central bank reserves, I have not seen much of anything discussing UK reserves as being of any significant amount.
you still don't know what you are talking about. And I have a fairly strong grasp of what is going on.
You have enough food for 30 years? Enough hard asset and raw materials to start your own industry in all your necessities?
I personally don't, no. But food is grown on the planet annually. If the currency collapses, anyone with a means of production has the most valuable asset, e.g. farmers.
You are still being inconsistent on dollars collapsing versus "everything" and also insisting that everything is worth less. If you are able to find ways to preserve your cash, you will have cash to buy the cheaper goods. The world is deflating because supposed value in dollar priced assets are falling in relation to dollars. The dollar is getting stronger.
The dollar's collapse will have to be quantified against something. How else will you know it collapsed?
I'm repeating myself, but it seems like I have to. And I like the Anonymous handle. It suits me.
@hc: some of what you say is quite insightful, but on the other hand, it's mathematically impossible for everything to go down at once.
There's a simple price equation for any two items in a trade: AX = BY. A units of item X gets you B units of item Y.
For any system of N tradeable items, there's a simple system of linear equations that tabulates all the exchange rates. You can play with that many ways, but the bottom line is that you can't devalue all N items together, because there always has to be something against which you are valuing them (in order to devalue them), and that increases in value.
In other words, all but one of item in the economy might be declining in value, but there is always a bull market in something. Lately that has been cash, including the dollar and to a greater extent the yen.
As for the black swan theory - yes, we've gone through a black swan. A black swan is often anticipated by some, and it's always predictable in hindsight, but generally the masses manage not to predict it or else it wouldn't be a black swan.
In this case, we're dealing with a huge and rapid change hitting a highly complex system, and the nonlinear (as in chaos theory) response is such that a lot of prior assumptions are blown away. Including all the price-history correlation matrices used in such things as modern portfolio theory...
Diversification in such a situation is dicey. On the one hand, it guarantees that you own the one or few things that aren't going to crash. On the other hand, it guarantees that much of what you own will be among the things that crash.
Furthermore, deleveraging by others who diversified creates cross-correlations which just about guarantee that everything goes down -- except for whatever they're deleveraging into (cash).
Does anyone have any inside gossips on Lewis Planned Communities. They seem to have a large number of malls recently completed and on line in S Cal. They own a large track of land near my home and I would like to see them sell it before they turn it into another "planned community".
I see I was a bit slow with my last post, but maybe more clear.
HC is arguing that we're entering the new dark ages. In that case, there is value in knowledge, value in weapons, and value in human organizations (religions, militaries) that can withstand the collapse. But there are still things increasing in value relative to everything else.
I also don't think we're anywhere near that kind of scenario.
Page 1
There is no doubt that this has been a
difficult year for WRS investments but now is not the time to try to fix a system that isnt broken.
The State of Wisconsin Investment
Board (SWIB) has announced
preliminary 2008 investment returns
of -26.2% for the Core Trust Fund and
-39% for the Variable Trust Fund.
Page2
Always remember that your WRS annuity is guaranteed for your lifetime you cannot outlive your annuity.
Page 3
Stock Market Volatility:
Investors who were out of the market for the best ten days missed 38%
of the total gain in the S&P 500 for the 20 year period from 1988 through 2007.
Page 4
ETF Board Recommends Closing Variable Fund
Page 6
How the assets are invested
The Core Fund is a balanced fund that is invested in a mixture of stocks, bonds, loans, real estate and other kinds of investments.
The Variable Fund is 100% invested in stocks.
They just need to hang on until the second half recovery.
They just need to hang on until the second half recovery.
\t Nemo | \t \t \tHomepage | \t
Nemo | Homepage | 01.21.09 - 3:19 pm | #
how does he do it?!
Trying harder
I guess I'll have to shop for a couch elsewhere?
"Here's a bag"
1st!
As of December this year, tenants had fled, including the anchor: bankrupt Wickes Furniture.
Yeah, "anchor" sounds about right.
I think Nemo confessed to mad perl skillz some time back.
Not yet the fastest way to lose 63 million.
Fastest way will be arrive soon, via Treasuries crash.
They need to convert it into an outlet mall for guns, ammunition and canned food.
GIMME A 'NINE'!!!!
xxxxx --
how does he do it?!
I sit around clicking "reload" all day, obviously.
So three wrongs don't make a right either?
Yeah, but they bought that thing at a STUPID low cap rate. How anyone could pay that much for a project is beyond me.
Actually Mr. Beach, I confessed to having a combination of two traits:
1) A mild case of OCD
2) Mad Perl skillz
It's a blessing. And a curse.
The receiver just accepted a $35 million offer for the 300,000-square-foot center - a price decline of 64% in about 18 months. - CR
Even knife catching is bigger in California.
I thought it was because Direct Buy stole all their business...ha ha ha
at that value, i think this is closer to atom bomb catching
How's this for a black swan:
Treasuries crash followed by currency crash both underscored by global production glut crisis and deflation.
This means:
- Cash is losing (currency crash)
- Treasuries is losing
- Equities is losing (global deflation)
- Bonds is losing (Deflation & Treasuries crash)
- Commodities is losing (production glut)
Where else to put your money?!?!?
"I see dead money. They don't know they're dead."
Thread music
A 300 point up day followed by a 300 point down day is the sign of a stable stock market isn't it?
outlet mall for guns, ammunition
LOL, Nemo can get a job there since he is always reloading.
I think the receiver will turn out to have done very well...
Guess the investor was unfamiliar with CR!
A 300 point up day followed by a 300 point down day is the sign of a stable stock market isn't it?
Pissed Off In California | 01.21.09 - 3:26 pm | #
And plenty of liquidity-
What's 63 million between friends?
They deserve what they got for calling it a "centre." Stupid British affectation...
$117/sq ft.? Isn't that really cheap for freeway-adjacent real estate in Orange County? At those prices it seems to me like it would be sensible to do a stripmall analogue to loft conversions. Condos are still fetching well about $200 here.
What's 63 million between friends?
lawyerliz | 01.21.09 - 3:29 pm | #
Agreed, nothing. Errr, you still sittting on a pile of cash, friend?
Yeah, how does he do it?
Last night he had a "spidey" feeling that there would be a new thread. He probably reads CR's mind. I won't go so far to say that he is CR.
FairEconomist:
"freeway-adjacent real estate
recall:
Jim the Realtor prefers the term, "backs onto the Detroit River"
In Whatcom county (once a boom area) we have many brand-spankin-new strip malls with nothing but one-product storefronts. Must-haves like "Dream Decks" and custom stainless/granite/tile doohickeys and vinyl fence/pergolas/spa enclosures.
Most of them were open about 5 minutes before the fire sale signs went up. Many are now empty and for lease.
The post about the concrete industry (yesterday?) reminded me of my wingnut neighbor, whose nephew was just laid off from a concrete company. No work for months, and one skeleton crew on the payroll.
We had a garage built last March, and when they pulled the permit, it was the only one that month.
Bubble...boom....BUSTED!
This reminds me of the Pacific Design Center, better known as the Blue Whale.
I remember when this was built in West Hollywood, seems like 30 years ago. It has flirted with bankruptcy multiple times as I recall.
A monument to overpriced designer furnishings and other useless extravagances such as the MOCA. They were still trying to finish building out to the master plan with a new phase beginning in 2006. No idea if it ever was completed.
Pacific Design Center - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
hc,
Whah? Treasuries are priced in dollars. If they crash, they crash against dollars. If our currency crashes, others are winning, or maybe commodities. What is a production glut crisis? And if you see deflation, how does the currency collapse instead of getting stronger?
....indoor malls would make perfect exclusive secure communities. Climate controlled, easily vegetated, clear lines of sight, clean fields of fire - perfect for a "new millennium enclave"
Fair Economist, the location is good and the price would be a bargain except you are stuck with a bad theme (Home Furnishings Center ... uh, Centre).
It is just off the 405 freeway - with freeway sign exposure.
best wishes.
Sure, freeway-adjacent is bad for a family with 2 kids and a dog. But it's good for most businesses, and acceptable for space-intensive home business like artists and refurbishers (ie traditional loft uses).
Next in line:
GGP and their Natick Mall.
SPG and their Camarillo Premium Outlet Mall(s). A 30% expansion is coming on line in April.
GGP just appeared to have blackmailed thier debt holders for a little more time. Simon (SPG) is still in denial.
<A 300 point up day followed by a 300 point down day is the sign of a stable stock market isn't it?>
It's a sign that things are priced in.
Ah, to be the man that sold that turd last summer.
Can't wait to visit the Camarillo expansion Rob. I like expansion packs. WoW's have been keen.
Nostrovia,
"Knife Catcher" should be the name of a yacht.
Rob Dawg writes:
"SPG and their Camarillo Premium Outlet Mall(s). A 30% expansion is coming on line in April."
Hoo boy, is that going to be interesting. What are they planning to fill the space with, auto dealerships?
How many ice skating rinks does Camarillo need?
How about using it for corporate headquarters for the Nationalized Bank of the U.S.A.?
too soon?
They could use the shell for a big budget remake of that 70s roller-disco extravaganza Xanadu.
Plus, I hear Olivia Newton John is available.
How about an Obamaland Theme Park?
Wasn't the Wickes on the other side of the 405, on the south? Did they move? I could have sworn they were still in that location when they went under.
sm_landlord,
Maybe they can make it like the 3rd St. Promenade only with seasonal fertalizer scent.
I mean, they are going to be selling leases using BS anyway.
Nostrovia,
Hey Sm_landlord,
I live really close to "Blue Whale" and there is a massive amount of construction going on there right now - not sure what specifically is being added though.
How many ice skating rinks does Camarillo need?
\t sm_landlord | Homepage | 01.21.09 - 3:41 pm | #
Ahem. That is a "world class ice skating training centre with tremendous community repurcussions" thankyouverymuch.
Rob Dawg writes:
"SPG and their Camarillo Premium Outlet Mall(s). A 30% expansion is coming on line in April."
Instead of Premium, how about a sub-prime Outlet Mall? Or Alt-A Outlet? NINJA-Outlet Mall?
Just drive two more exits north and turn right. The giant Ikea store has everything at about half the price.
"SPG and their Camarillo Premium Outlet Mall(s). A 30% expansion is coming on line in April."
Instead of Premium, how about a sub-prime Outlet Mall? Or Alt-A Outlet? NINJA-Outlet Mall?
Re-arrange the chairs, Al | 01.21.09 - 3:45 pm | #
Wait for mixed-use, high density urban core Pickwick Plaza Redevelopment project.
Three wrongs still don't make it right.
lots of happy smiling buying today
so glad the bank crisis is over
"We had a garage built last March, and when they pulled the permit, it was the only one that month."
Joanna | Homepage | 01.21.09 - 3:35
Joanna,
I had forgot about these numbers until you posted...The boom and breakup in North Port,Fl(Sarasota County). These numbers are for the city only. It's a freaking bloodbath.
RISE AND FALL OF NORTH PORT GROWTHNorth Port housing permits issued:
2003--2,046
2004--3,338
2005--4,321
2006--2,070
2007--380
2008 (through Sept.)--119
I really like 07 and 08.
Chris
Fair,
Google puts on the south side too.
wickes furniture loc: Orange, CA 92868 - Google Maps
Nostrovia,
Well, the Camarillo outlet could convert the extra space into a post-apocalyptic participatory theme park with paintball and zombies vs. human games. Could be a pretty functional anchor.
Wait for mixed-use, high density urban core Pickwick Plaza Redevelopment project.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.21.09 - 3:48 pm | #
I say "Humbug!" I mean that in the Pickwickian sense of course.
But, but....
How are ever going to get back to 'potential growth' if all these malls - pardon, centres - keep emptying?
PKis right: we need more stimulus!!!
first full day that the adults are in charge.
We need a furniture mall Czar !
bail out the strip malls
If only credit had kept flowing!
"I see dead money. They don't know they're dead."
hc | 01.21.09 - 3:25 pm |
what poker pros call amateurs, innit?
...indoor malls would make perfect exclusive secure communities. Climate controlled, easily vegetated, clear lines of sight, clean fields of fire - perfect for a "new millennium enclave"
Black Star Ranch | 01.21.09 - 3:36 pm
this actually strikes me as a good idea. the actual configuration of retail space is virtually limitless in those places. the biggest problem might be making drop ceilings secure, or replacing them. put one-way glass in the windows viewing the pedestrian spaces. intersperse residential spaces with commercial ones selling necessities and niceties...
first fella to build one in the right pplace might make a buncha money...
Three wrongs still don't make it right.
Sports Guy Lafleur | 01.21.09 - 3:48 pm | #
Ahh, but three lefts do. Just ask the current adminstration. ;-) [Hat tip to National Lampoon.]
Fair Economist writes:
$117/sq ft.? Isn't that really cheap for freeway-adjacent real estate in Orange County? At those prices it seems to me like it would be sensible to do a stripmall analogue to loft conversions. Condos are still fetching well about $200 here.
Fair Economist | Homepage | 01.21.09 - 3:31 pm | #
That is almost where a live/work lofts makes sense(> $100 sqft with fees). We have faux lofts here is Sacramento asking $500 sqft plus 400 mo assoc fees! WTF?
xxxxx writes:
how does he do it?!
My best supposition is CR uses a composing tool that is "live", in that it creates a file when he begins an entry, and Nemo has a script that spots new file handles getting "touch"ed.
I bought a couch there about 6 months ago. At that time, 2 of the remaining stores had "going out of business" sales and there was almost no traffic in any of the stores. I can't imagine things have improved since then.
Loving the new couch -- a sectional.
one of the greatest sources of schadenfreude I enjoyed prior to the Busheviks slinking out of DC yesterday was the plight of poor Tom Friedman, whose wife's family fortune shrank 95% in a week: from several billions down to mere dozens of millions.
they were in CRE...
I was just driving by this place today. Empty, empty, empty ghost town, as usual. I don't know why the remaining stores even bother sticking around. They are way below critical mass.
I'm sure they wish they had all those customers that keep jamming the parking lot of the Ikea a couple blocks to the south.
My best supposition is CR uses a composing tool that is "live", in that it creates a file when he begins an entry, and Nemo has a script that spots new file handles getting "touch"ed.
The_Littlest_Mandarin | 01.21.09 - 3:57 pm | #
Hmmm, and Nemo started this right after he met CR in San Francisco. Co-incidence?
"Fair Economist writes:
Wasn't the Wickes on the other side of the 405, on the south? Did they move? I could have sworn they were still in that location when they went under."
Wickes used to be off the 405 and Harbor on the west side of the freeway, but that location closed years ago when they moved over to the new furniture center (fairly close to their old location, just on the other side of the freeway.
CR is right, the location is pretty good, it's literally right on the freeway and the signage is good. Unfortunate theme/timing.
Then again I don't think there is a mall theme that can work in this environment, just furniture is much worse than most anything else.
wow. take an afternoon nap and i now see that my FAS is up 27% for the day. too bad I thought the Obama rally would start yesterday, so i'm still underwater =)
paintball and zombies vs. human games
Fair Economist | Homepage | 01.21.09 - 3:49 pm | #
If they have bankers vs. taxpayers, I'll pay to play!
world must be looking pretty flat to the Friedmans. Wonder if they were leveraged up?
sdtfs writes:
Hmmm, and Nemo started this right after he met CR in San Francisco. Co-incidence?
Maybe Nemo hosts. Maybe he and CR are just swappin' spit. Who knows?
I'd rather not, to be honest. =)
lawyerliz writes:
What's 63 million between friends?
Well, look at it this way: had it been in stocks, you would've lost half anyway,right?
The bummer part about our little boom is that it wrecked acres & acres of lovely farmland. Now what could be used to feed people is covered in empty rotting McMall-Mansions.
remember when they opened the lazer tag place in OC in the old anchor store in Fountain Valley? This was back in the 80s? There's your biz model ready to go .
That is almost where a live/work lofts makes sense(> $100 sqft with fees). We have faux lofts here is Sacramento asking $500 sqft plus 400 mo assoc fees! WTF?
My pet peeve is live-"work" where the "work" space is a handicapped-accessible bathrooom and enough room for a cubicle. And oh yes, the prices!
irreverent(Unrated) writes:
\tbail out OF the strip malls
irreverent | 01.21.09 - 3:53 pm | #
There - fixed it for ya...
Been waiting for this one. Might have been posted already.
New York Is Forced to Borrow to Pay Jobless Claims
Fund Runs Dry As Joblessness Grows in State - NY Times
lazer tag? that's stretching to the far reaches of my memory. along with the designer trapper keepers...
Woah! This market still has some short squeezing ability.
Prior to last year, everyone thought volatility was a hedge fund's best friend. Well, 2nd best friend after inside information.
Is this a volatile market? Or is this the baby pool we're swimmin' in?
They built one of those furniture thingy's in an old GM plant in Van Nuys. Flew over it ~4PM last week. Empty. This is a party everyone can join, just like the last one...only not as much fun.
Come to think of it...maybe party is the wrong word....
Nostrovia,
NY leverages up to pay the jobless, too kewl
and Nemo has a script that spots new file handles getting "touch"ed.
I have no idea what that means, but it sounds illegal. Stop it, I'm blushing.
as for the strip mall... these are some of the biggest busts coming.
as I said recently, I went to a strip mall with a Circuit City (closing) a Cost Plus World Market (closing) a craft store (all clearance).
then there's another one where everything is gone except nail salons.
who knew people in MN liked their nails done so much?
Wickes Furniture? Sounds like a credit tenant. Isn't any surprise this project failed?
Those loans could wind up costing the states unemployment fund more than $100 million in interest and could result in a punitive tax on all employers across the state two years from now
Kick the ca
Say it isn't so, Barry! First the FISA cop out, then Gates, now this continuation of financier bailouts! Ach, I weep for the world. Can we get a few lines of Yeats in here to give voice to our collective angst? You know, some of that "center cannot hold" stuff. Chokes me up every time.
touch (Unix)
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
touch is a standard Unix program used to change a file's access and modification timestamps. It is also used to create a new empty file.
Yearning:
Did Cost Plus go out of business and I missed it?
I like that place, they have some decent merchandise.
Gwynster, thanks, I needed to figure out how to get my rental painted CHEAP....paint balls.
cost plus is downsizing
If I had to guess what Nemo is doing, he's checking the RSS feed every x seconds, sending a signal to his machine when the feed is ready (a beep?), then making a short comment in a ready to type input based on the subject and a quick summary of the content.
If RSS isn't fast enough, there are HTML mining tools available that can do the same with a little more diligence.
Fair, I had a live/work in LA back in 90-93. 1100 sqft for $425 mo. They never raised my rent I was the only tenant they had who paid on time. This was a gorgeous 1924 brick retrofitted building and indoor parking. I miss industrial skylights. Price/space is what makes a loft project work, not 'lifestyle' choices.
The good news is the guy who paid $35 mill is going to lose ony 45% when he sells it.
URE up 18% today
TBT up 6%
pretty good volume today
1) A mild case of OCD
2) Mad Perl skillz
It's a blessing. And a curse.
Nemo | Homepage | 01.21.09 - 3:22 pm | #
You're hired.
OT: I told everyone that I would update the key earnings numbers today, so here are the key points:
\tTrends are terrible, 2009 expectations fall 1.6% in 2 market days
\tEarnings Expectations are Collapsing for both 4Q and 2009
\t4Q total net income expected to be 29.4% below year ago
\tEarly reports (51 total) are ugly, total net income -3.6B so far
\t27% firms to report so far have red ink, 75% of Financials in the red
\tRevisions Ratios fall for both 2009 and 2010, both extremely low
\tTotal net income in 09, now expected to be 1.7% below 2008, but in reality will most likely be down much more (perhaps just move the decimal point)
\tP/Es based on 2009 estimates will prove to be to low as E plunges
\tFinancials red ink so far is more than 3x year ago levels.
\tBottom up estimate for S&P 500 now $72.41 in 2009, down from $73.62 last Thursday, I expect it to be less than $60.
Total Net Income Growth
\tTotal net income expected to fall 29.4% in fourth quarter from a year ago, was -23.7% on Thursday
\tNegative year over year growth in 4Q now expected for six sectors
\tFinancials expect high growth due to easy comps, but gush red ink in early going
\tFull year net income in 2009 expected to be down 1.7% from 2008 levels, following a 11.6% decline in 2008
\t1Q total net income now expected to be 15.1% below a year ago, was -13.7% on Thursday
\t Energy, Materials and Discretionary all expected to be down over 40% in 4Q
\tExcluding Financials total net income down 15.5% from a year ago
\tEarly returns very ugly, the 51 (10.2%) that have reported are showing red ink of $3.7B aggregate vs. total earnings of $11.2B a year ago and $20.2B in 3Q
\tEarly 2010 expectations looks for 19.4% growth over 2009
\tIndex changes mask size of earnings decline in 2008 (MER, WB, NCC, AIG gone)
The Zacks Revisions Ratio: 2009
\tRevisions ratio for full S&P 500 down to 0.14, from 0.16 last week
\tAll sectors have at least 4 cuts per increase
\t9 sectors have at least 5 cuts for every increase
\t17.2% of all firms see mean estimate decline by more than 10%, 9.6% more than 20%
\tRatio of firms with rising to falling mean estimates at 0.23, up from 0.16 from last week
\tTotal number of revisions (4 week total) down to 1,876 from 1958 (-4.2%)
\tIncreases down to 237 from 268 (-11.6%), cuts down to 1,639 from 1,690 (-3.0%)
Hmmm...the stock market is making a bouncing yo-yo formation.
Nostrovia,
Now that SRS and SKF crashed can we please get a long explanation as to why inverse ETFs are the spawn of satan? And why you shouldn't use them unless you have a double PHD in mathematics and astro-physics?
Ah, to be the man that sold that turd last summer.
Comrade Misean is Dope | 01.21.09 - 3:39 pm | #
Identify the buyer, and you'll unmask Tennis_8!
POIC: the degree should be in astrology
Nope he just uses perl (or a webget/curl system call) to create an array of urls and has a counter that sends an email notification when the loop +1s. If his skills are really mad he could have the script directly open a commenting window in the url via firefox (linux) or safari (mac). Few perl monks run winblows.
So, have you heard rumors of yet new bail out?
ROFL
Market has!
$35 MM would be a decent price for that property if fully leased to solid tenants at what used to be market rates...OH.
POIC,
You need a short explanation. And you need to be in them short. It's a Napolean thing.
Nostrovia,
The slumping economy claimed another huge chunk of Wisconsin employees this past week, according to the latest list of layoff notices released Tuesday by the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development.
With the new layoffs, the filings of job losses made to the state DWD so far in 2009 total 2,451 employees. Through Jan. 20 last year, companies had filed notices of job losses affecting 651 employees.
270% increase, what a difference a year makes...
Jim Doyle will need another term to correct this mess.
p.s. As of SKF & SRS, you ve got to remember that those are traded purely on expectations.
When people expect the end of the world, those are up. When .... (there is nothing magical in here, those investments are as speculative as it gets.)
Dirk,
Thanks for the info. Here's something to consider also:
At the end of Q3, 2008, financials accounted for ~ 21% of the S&P 500's total dividend.
Dividend's from financials are going the way of the dodo bird. Or should I say - D'oh! D'oh! bird.
S&P 500 profit estimates are still way to high. So are dividend expectations.
I forgot to add the /snark to my SRS/SKF post. Just waiting for the end-is-nigh posters to come out now that they've tanked.
Hey deflationary jane - what's happening with houses in Davis? We are renting from a guy who moved there and I think his wife beats him every night for not buying a house there.
So now he's kicking us out of our rental elsewhere so it will be easier to sell, except that his would-be-interior-designer wife decorated it and this is not an area where garish colors, huge lawns, or gold chandeliers are popular.
Also is it that easy these days to be promoted to full prof? Landlord sure is counting on it.
Say what you will about Nemo's perl skillz, but it is his sense of humor that amazes me. Even if I had all day to think about the zingers he leads off with I couldn't do it. Hats off.
hc,
Whah? Treasuries are priced in dollars. If they crash, they crash against dollars. If our currency crashes, others are winning, or maybe commodities. What is a production glut crisis? And if you see deflation, how does the currency collapse instead of getting stronger?
Anonymous | 01.21.09 - 3:35 pm | #
-- Treasuries have Interest Rate risk. They can crash against interest rate regardless of dollars.
-- Dollars can crash against foreign currencies, yes. On a small scale, that should just make foreign currencies more expensive as some capital leaves USD.
On a large scale, it's trying to fit a large swimming pool into a multiple small cup problem.
The flight to foreign currencies can temporarily cause a shortage of foreign currencies, thereby making it un-tradeable, trapping a lot of money within USD itself. (Related unknown: who / which groups of countries can instantly provide all the liquidity of USD bubble that has been built up as a result of being the reserve currency???? Besides, a lot of the "stronger" currency countries had a lot of reserves in USD, which by the definition of this hypothesis, is now worthless -- so you have to grasp at why they're stable at being strong.)
-- Production glut crisis is what we have now. It's another way of viewing the consumption collapse. Globally we have too much production and demand just went poof. The adjustment of less production will cause raw materials and commodities to be under pressure until it's adjusted. (or until income raises from somewhere else)
-- Deflation in the rest of the world, but currency collapse in USD. It's the same backdrop we have now (deflation), except instead of USD getting stronger, you get USD collapsing.
(An unspoken assumption here is that by this time commodities may also be priced in something else, or trading breaks down into local currencies [instead of global exchange and settlement] is a possibility too)
Who says you cannot have everything dropping at once?
Black Swan event begets black swan outcomes.
deflationary jane writes:
remember when they opened the lazer tag place in OC in the old anchor store in Fountain Valley? This was back in the 80s? There's your biz model ready to go .
I do! We went to play there often (I went to UCI)
1-21-2009 - Layoff Headlines
Evraz Pipe Mfg. -100
Laser Optics Company -70
Teleflex Marine Closes Plant -93
3 Indiana Companies -300
Jeld-Wen Closing Door Plant -94
Cummins Inc. Closing WI Plant -180
Food Lion HQ -80
Brown Shoe Company -59
Johnstown Hospital -47
Alegent Health -292
TT Electronics -700
Squire Sanders Law Firm Cuts Staffers
LTX-Credence -40
Tyco Electronics Closing 2 Plants -2,500
Angus-Young Architects -9
Maryland Budget to Include 700 Layoffs
DuPont Old Hickory Plant -240
City of East Hartford -8
84 Lumber Closing More Stores
Excela Health -70
WestCast -140
5 Wisconsin Companies -1,159
BHP -6,000
New Round of Layoffs for Sony
Fairchild Semiconductor -70
Intel Shutting Philippine Plant -1,800
Buffalo NY Area Auto Suppliers Hammered -600
Madison WI Takes a Few Hits
RV Supplier Elixir Industries -44
Standard Candy Co. Shuts Plant -250
Colville Indian Plywood & Veneer -230
Meat Packer Shuts Down -8
The Odawa Casino Resort -80
Coos County Road Workers -22
John Deere -120
Laurel Crest Nursing Home -14
Volkswagen Temporarily Lays Off 26,000
ABX Air -30
FCI Inc. Moves Jobs to China -150
City of Simpsonville SC -12
STM -96
Tropicana Casino in NJ -117
Alcan -1,100
Sacramento Budget Shortfall = Layoffs
Sega -30
Piper Aircraft Inc. -150
FiberMark -30
Google China Laying Off
Temporary Layoffs at 17 Year High
Ericsson -5,000
XTRA Sports Staff All Fired
CNBC Mimics Layoffdaily.com
Yankee Candle -330
Filene's Basement
Sweetbay to Close 7 Stores -700
Imagine what would have happened if the market wasn't up today...
"If his skills are really mad he could have the script directly open a commenting window in the url via firefox (linux) or safari (mac)."
Why open a commenting window? Have the script send an HTTP POST request to HaloScan, drawing the text from a file of a few hundred fortune cookies. Provided you make the cookies neutral, so they go with everything (and let's face it, "They just need to hang on until the second half recovery" would work with 90% of what's getting posted on CR), the odds of anyone noticing are low.
Is Sterling About to Tank?"The danger is blindingly obvious. The $4.4 trillion of foreign liabilities accumulated by UK banks are twice the size of the British economy. UK foreign reserves are virtually nothing at $60.6bn."
Shockingly low amount of reserves...I didn't realize how low the UK was in this regard. This amount could be absorbed in a matter of hours in a currency run. I think Iceland-style default is a foregone conclusion; just the timing is unclear.
Considering gold as a store of value in these troubled times. 2/3 of the demand is for jewelry, so it does have a commodity dimension that is impacted by the slowdown. Add in deflation and it does seem like there's a lot of downside risk. It's frustrating that there's no obvious choice.
Ken, I agree -- I think thats where the OCD comes into play.
just the timing is unclear.
citizen Kung Fu Panda | 01.21.09 - 4:29 pm | #
That's nuk-u-lar.
It's frustrating that there's no obvious choice.
Currently Accounting | 01.21.09 - 4:30 pm | #
That might be a sign that diversification is your friend.
"UK foreign reserves are virtually nothing at $60.6bn."
You're kidding. Is that the correct figure?
...here's my site of the day:
http://web-xp2a-pws.ntrs.com:80/content//media/attachment/data/econ_research/0901/document/us0109.pdf
"... we believe that if the massive fiscal stimulus package being worked up in Congress is financed largely by the banking system and the Federal Reserve, there is a good chance the economy will begin to grow by the fourth quarter of this year and continue to do so throughout 2010. "
"It's frustrating that there's no obvious choice.
Currently Accounting | 01.21.09 - 4:30 pm | #
That might be a sign that diversification is your friend."
I'm a big believer in diversification. I like to diversify my losses across a broad swathe of asset classes. Currently I recommend real-estate (especially Northern California), the British pound, Irish financial companies and select Russian indexes.
Wouldn't you guess that people making 100M investments were a little smarter than the average joe?
Who did the due diligence?
There's a sucker born every minute.
MLM writes:
That might be a sign that diversification is your friend.
The theory of Diversification essentially depends on balancing away isolated risks (in individual stock, individual sectors, individual countries, etc) and ultimately trusting in the growth of the complete whole system -- the HUMAN CIVILIZATION stock, if you will.
Of course, if, as a whole, human civilization is growing, then Diversification will show yield.
What I don't understand is, what happens when there's:
I fail to see how Diversification deals with any of these.
If really boils down to whether you believe that we're in any (or all) of the 3 scenarios globally or not. If you believe they won't happen, then you believe in Diversification.
Personally, I feel like since a Black Swan event has occurred. I'm still trying to gauge the complete Black Swan outcome.
Would you predict the outcome of a "meteor hitting earth" event using convention data of even the worst volcano eruptions recorded in history?
Did Cost Plus go out of business and I missed it?
it did in the Twin Cities. To my knowledge, there were 3-4 stores, in the TC metro, and ALL closed.
I would have thought that 1 or 2 were viable, but guess not.
The city itself and the school district is in big trouble. Davis had been sliding down quietly but picked up speed as the foreclosures are now more public. Rents are down, vacancies up, and my next door neighbor just had his 'perfect investment' duplex slapped with a tax lien. He's waking away from the income property as the only "income" is only coming out of his pocket and not into it. Seriously, 4Q10 to 1Q11 might be a good time to go shopping. It's when I'd go.
as far as full prof, depends on dept and who is retiring. Letter and Sciences not doing so well but CAES is holding it's breath waiting for Obmama handouts. Smaller depts with state fund depenances are laying off. My dept finally filled a slot after searching for 5 yrs. The wait could be long and the political milefield nasty.
Pavel Chichikov | 01.21.09 - 4:33 pm
Yep, less than Thailand among others...
dp writes:
Wouldn't you guess that people making 100M investments were a little smarter than the average joe?
If they purchased with their cash, they are the suckers.
If they borrowed funds from a bank, we're the suckers.
Ain't life grand?
citizen Kung Fu Panda writes:
Is Sterling About to Tank?"The danger is blindingly obvious. The $4.4 trillion of foreign liabilities accumulated by UK banks are twice the size of the British economy. UK foreign reserves are virtually nothing at $60.6bn."
I think this is how it happens. U.K. stumbles, regional panic, global panic, conjure clock noon.
Days to weeks away, IMO.
hc,
you say we have a production glut, demand way off. To me, that just means the price is too high. You say commodities will be under pressure for a while, and if I guess against dollars, you say no the dollar collapses. The price of everything cannot simultaneously collapse because a price is just a relative value between two things. If one wins, one loses.
hc,
"Personally, I feel like since a Black Swan event has occurred."
Is it a Black Swan if you saw it coming? How about if you should have? I don't see this mess as a Black Swan, because it was freaking obvious.
Some might have had blinders on. Others paid to ignore it...but to me a Black Swan is a Caldera erruption...so to speak.
Or an interstellar invasion. But I talk to the mother ships regularly so that won't quite fit.
Nostrovia,
Would you predict the outcome of a "meteor hitting earth" event using convention data of even the worst volcano eruptions recorded in history?
hc | 01.21.09 - 4:34 pm | #
No, but what would you do to protect yourself anyway? Use twice as much tinfoil?
Should conjure's clock tick over tomorrow? See bonds, forex today? And a green paint on equities?
Did some geese just hit the engines?
Currently Accounting writes:
Considering gold as a store of value in these troubled times. 2/3 of the demand is for jewelry, so it does have a commodity dimension that is impacted by the slowdown. Add in deflation and it does seem like there's a lot of downside risk. It's frustrating that there's no obvious choice.
Currently Accounting | 01.21.09 - 4:30 pm | #
Exactly!!!
When the going gets tough and people are forced to pawn their jewelry onto the market (to get some money to buy food)
Suddenly the "frozen" 2/3 volume of gold is going to flood the market and crash the price of gold.
This is what the "physical gold" bulls don't want you to know.
That day is coming soon. India has the largest gold as jewelry market, and it's economy just went through their own Enron.
I see dead Goldbugs. They don't know they're dead.
So what will used up mall and strip mall contructions get converted to...
My vote...soup kitchens/hydroponic pot gardens.
So what will used up mall and strip mall contructions get converted to...
eyesores
graffiti catchers
drug houses
homeless shelters
Its all over baby blue...
prisons
flop houses
hc,
you are talking out both sides of your mouth. gold collapses (in dollars), dollars collapse against everything, treasuries collapse (in dollars), foreign currencies deflate (like the GBP), yada yada blah blah.
You don't know what you're talking about, but I can tell you are excited by your idea.
I've seen the mall and the damage done
Every realtor likes to sit in the sun....
JP Morgan CEO Dimon Buys 500,000 Shares of the Bank Worth $11.5 Million (story developing)
Must have been Obama/Geithner first conference call. Change yes we can...
so did ken lay get tarp money that he's now put in BoA stock.
'Bank of America CEO buys 200,000 shares, stock soars
transportation index dropped to new yearly lows again today before rebounding. A lot of technical analysis is pointing to 858s&p then on to the retest of lows and breaking. Fundamentals are pointing to 100 s&p eventually due to worldwide collapse.
"eyesores
graffiti catchers
drug houses
homeless shelters"
I have foolish optimism...I forgot they wouldn't be converted to anything and just sit there to rot.
good point
I see dead Goldbugs. They don't know they're dead.
hc | 01.21.09 - 4:39 pm | #
The only gold I will ever need, so long as I live, is my wedding ring and the ultrathin plating on my AV cables.
Fundamentals are pointing to 100 s&p eventually due to worldwide collapse.
Am I the only one who thought that sentence was LOL funny?
So what will used up mall and strip mall contructions get converted to...
My vote...soup kitchens/hydroponic pot gardens.
Comrade Janosik | 01.21.09 - 4:40 pm | #
C&C and I have been on this for years. Paintball. Non-occupied recreational vehicle storage ATVS, SUVs, motorcycles, ATVs, boats. Indoor model airplanes and race cars. I love the smell of two stokes in the morning, it smells, it smells like CRE implosion.
re: stock purchases by dimon and lewis
the rest of the story is that the stock was probably preferred paying 10% divies.
"strokes", RD, "strokes". Stokes is you and a bong and a lisp.
the rest of the story is that the stock was probably preferred paying 10% divies.
Basel Too | 01.21.09 - 4:45 pm | #
And probably financed with TARP money!
re: stock purchases by dimon and lewis
What do they have to lose? They are doubling down on their bets hoping people perceive that they are actually trying. Doesn't change my mind that they are horrible businessmen and their businesses should be bankrupted.
Anonymous writes:
hc,
You say commodities will be under pressure for a while, and if I guess against dollars, you say no the dollar collapses. The price of everything cannot simultaneously collapse because a price is just a relative value between two things. If one wins, one loses.
Anonymous | 01.21.09 - 4:38 pm | #
Win-Lose trades assume a functioning trading system.
What I'm saying is that things will get to a point that a discontinuity occurs: whereby trades halt and things globally revert back to local economies, not linked, global, tradable economies.
If you cannot trade USD, and you have USD in a British safe AND there's a current "conversion crisis" of the dollar going on -- guess what happens to that value of USD?
A true collapse will always show up as discontinuous scenarios, where trading breaks down and "everything can be measured relative to everything else" is no longer a true statement.
Another way of thinking this:
Prior to global trade, life was on living standard X, trading locally, isolated trading systems, no universal price for everything. When we invented global economies, commodity exchanges and global trades, living standard grew prosperous and became X+n.
All I'm saying is a reversion to be closer to X for everyone involved in this system.
Hence, everything falls.
Don't believe me. The first untradable event will come up soon.
Due to worldwide collapse the following events have been canceled:
Pancake breakfast at Bethel Baptist
The Optimist Club meeting
The 7:00 PM AA Meeting
Pfft, small change I bought 2M shares @ 1.99. I just close my position and handed in my notice at work.
Pissed Off In California
i should hope! montclair ain't cheap!
Just hired Tim Geithner to do my taxes.
A mall's floors empty,
no shoppers spending, spending,
empty eyes and tears.
Comrade Rally Monkey,
What do you think about Apple beating expectations?
hc,
Bullshit. If I saw this coming and have made preparations including hard assets and food, when the dollar "collapses" my assets will be worth far more than your dollars and you will have lost. That you didn't have time to trade out of it on the day "it" happens doesn't mean other people didn't plan ahead of time.
squeezed writes:
Nope he just uses perl (or a webget/curl system call) to create an array of urls and has a counter that sends an email notification when the loop +1s. If his skills are really mad he could have the script directly open a commenting window in the url via firefox (linux) or safari (mac). Few perl monks run winblows.
An HTML window is overkill. You're only inputting one field: the body. The "Name" is hard coded, the other two fields aren't necessary (though they can be hardcoded as well).
Send an audible beep on a new article, switch to your terminal, and simply enter a message in a perl (or python) input. Take input and post directly to url.
That's how I'd do it...
S&P 500 profit estimates are still way to high. So are dividend expectations.
Angry Saver | 01.21.09 - 4:21 pm | #
Fully agree, the numbers I posted are the bottom up consuensus numbers for S&P 500 firms. Financials were at one point responsible for more than 30% of all S&P 500 earnings. Based on current expectations, they will be less than 8% of 2008 earnings, and that is massivly inflated since some of the biggest losers in 2008 have been kicked out of the index or bought out, lil fellas like AIG, FNM, FRE, BSC, LEH, MER, NCC, WB. Their losses are not included in the 08 numbers. Just before the last 3 were removed from the index, financials were expected to account for less than 4% of total S&P earnings in 08.
Hence, everything falls.
hc | 01.21.09 - 4:47 pm | #
Against the price of squirrels, I assume you to mean.
MLM writes:
Hence, everything falls.
hc | 01.21.09 - 4:47 pm | #
Against the price of squirrels, I assume you to mean.
Nope. Hoopajoops
i'm ecstatic(sp?) greatest story never overspun.
Clearly its news such as this story that have caused SPG and other REITS to rally today. It must be a buying opportunity of a lifetime for them - 65% off!! They can expand their footprint dramatically. As for the tenants to occupy that space....But the market likes it anyway.
Anonymous writes:
hc,
Bullshit. If I saw this coming and have made preparations including hard assets and food, when the dollar "collapses" my assets will be worth far more than your dollars and you will have lost. That you didn't have time to trade out of it on the day "it" happens doesn't mean other people didn't plan ahead of time.
Anonymous | 01.21.09 - 4:50 pm | #
Can you use a handle instead of anonymous?
Planning doesn't solve the problem, because in the end you're part of a system.
You can shield yourself relatively for a short period of time, but thinking you can escape the collective descent is wishful thinking.
You have enough food for 30 years? Enough hard asset and raw materials to start your own industry in all your necessities?
When we're losing our collective ability to trade and conduct commerce, it is no different than if we've reverted back to a older period of time where modern market economies weren't invented yet. (and this is the impt part:) where everything is LESS AVAILABLE and MORE DIFFICULT to trade and quality of life goes out the window.
If you're still stuck in "begger thy neighbour" / "better than others" mode of thinking that "I can win if I trade / prepare correctly by buying the right stuff"...
You haven't grasped the scale of the crisis yet.
1.78 on a tnxdcf basis gives an upside tgt of $280/share
Bet the Simons (of SPG) were at the inaugural festivities.
Used to hang with them in Indy. Very big Dem donors.
According to bubblevision today is "squirrel appreciation day".
The link re the UK reserves is Naked Capitalism referencing Pritchard in the Telegraph...I've no reason to doubt the magnitude of the mismatch. In the many news articles regarding central bank reserves, I have not seen much of anything discussing UK reserves as being of any significant amount.
hc,
you still don't know what you are talking about. And I have a fairly strong grasp of what is going on.
You have enough food for 30 years? Enough hard asset and raw materials to start your own industry in all your necessities?
I personally don't, no. But food is grown on the planet annually. If the currency collapses, anyone with a means of production has the most valuable asset, e.g. farmers.
You are still being inconsistent on dollars collapsing versus "everything" and also insisting that everything is worth less. If you are able to find ways to preserve your cash, you will have cash to buy the cheaper goods. The world is deflating because supposed value in dollar priced assets are falling in relation to dollars. The dollar is getting stronger.
The dollar's collapse will have to be quantified against something. How else will you know it collapsed?
I'm repeating myself, but it seems like I have to. And I like the Anonymous handle. It suits me.
@hc: some of what you say is quite insightful, but on the other hand, it's mathematically impossible for everything to go down at once.
There's a simple price equation for any two items in a trade: AX = BY. A units of item X gets you B units of item Y.
For any system of N tradeable items, there's a simple system of linear equations that tabulates all the exchange rates. You can play with that many ways, but the bottom line is that you can't devalue all N items together, because there always has to be something against which you are valuing them (in order to devalue them), and that increases in value.
In other words, all but one of item in the economy might be declining in value, but there is always a bull market in something. Lately that has been cash, including the dollar and to a greater extent the yen.
As for the black swan theory - yes, we've gone through a black swan. A black swan is often anticipated by some, and it's always predictable in hindsight, but generally the masses manage not to predict it or else it wouldn't be a black swan.
In this case, we're dealing with a huge and rapid change hitting a highly complex system, and the nonlinear (as in chaos theory) response is such that a lot of prior assumptions are blown away. Including all the price-history correlation matrices used in such things as modern portfolio theory...
Diversification in such a situation is dicey. On the one hand, it guarantees that you own the one or few things that aren't going to crash. On the other hand, it guarantees that much of what you own will be among the things that crash.
Furthermore, deleveraging by others who diversified creates cross-correlations which just about guarantee that everything goes down -- except for whatever they're deleveraging into (cash).
Peak Cash.
I love it.
Does anyone have any inside gossips on Lewis Planned Communities. They seem to have a large number of malls recently completed and on line in S Cal. They own a large track of land near my home and I would like to see them sell it before they turn it into another "planned community".
I like it when someone in here mentioned - an opportunity of lifetime.
Reminds me of good old, prices never fall.
ROFL.
I see I was a bit slow with my last post, but maybe more clear.
HC is arguing that we're entering the new dark ages. In that case, there is value in knowledge, value in weapons, and value in human organizations (religions, militaries) that can withstand the collapse. But there are still things increasing in value relative to everything else.
I also don't think we're anywhere near that kind of scenario.
p.s.
it is always opportunity of life time if you can wait 20 - 50 years.
Otherwise an error in judgment could cost you dearly.
Pavel! Popeye! Nova!
Regs of all sizes, shapes and ages.
ova, LOL "Due to worldwide collapse the following events have been canceled:
Pancake breakfast at Bethel Baptist
The Optimist Club meeting
The 7:00 PM AA Meeting"
I would add the "Investment Club Meeting" but keep the church pankake breakfast at the church, Lord knows well all be prayin'.......
"That's how I'd do it..."
ok definitely more efficient. lynx also works (funny).
EFT Wisconsin January Newsletter
Page 1
There is no doubt that this has been a
difficult year for WRS investments but now is not the time to try to fix a system that isnt broken.
The State of Wisconsin Investment
Board (SWIB) has announced
preliminary 2008 investment returns
of -26.2% for the Core Trust Fund and
-39% for the Variable Trust Fund.
Page2
Always remember that your WRS annuity is guaranteed for your lifetime you cannot outlive your annuity.
Page 3
Stock Market Volatility:
Investors who were out of the market for the best ten days missed 38%
of the total gain in the S&P 500 for the 20 year period from 1988 through 2007.
Page 4
ETF Board Recommends Closing Variable Fund
Page 6
How the assets are invested
The Core Fund is a balanced fund that is invested in a mixture of stocks, bonds, loans, real estate and other kinds of investments.
The Variable Fund is 100% invested in stocks.
Cash will be King...
Did Cost Plus go out of business and I missed it?
it did in the Twin Cities. To my knowledge, there were 3-4 stores, in the TC metro, and ALL closed.
I would have thought that 1 or 2 were viable, but guess not.
Yearning To Learn | 01.21.09 - 4:34 pm | #
How do you supply them? You really need a 'critical mass' to make the logistics economical. They didn't have it.
Looks like TARP is the knife-catcher on this one. Google the lender, La Salle, and it comes up as part of Bank of America.
Anonymous writes:
so did ken lay get tarp money that he's now put in BoA stock.
'Bank of America CEO buys 200,000 shares, stock soars'
Anonymous | 01.21.09 - 4:43 pm | #
If Ken Lay got TARP money, that really is a heck of a conspiracy.
oh shit
that is me
but quick
dont tell anyone
this is a dead thread
like a useless LOST continuum