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Architecture Billings Index Near Record Low
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Wed, 01/21/2009 - 5:44pm (147 comments)
in
"near record lows" == bottom
New Thread: Architecture Billings Index Near Record Low ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
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PS: Fight the Nemo.
Wow, AIA needs a better economist (and one with fewer honorifics).
Again, this really impacts the Brady Bunch. I hope they don't have to eat Tiger.
Nemo still wins. and CRbot is getting annoying.
What goes up, must come down.
How about this for an unforeseen emergency?:
NASA - Severe Space Weather--Social and Economic Impacts
CR, could you do the charts with blue lines? The red lines are just so scary.
[OT] In normal times, the Fed conducts monetary policy by manipulating the price of the least risky assets of all: overnight Treasuries.
There are two ways to move out the risk curve: Creditworthiness, and duration (inflation risk / opportunity risk). The Fed is slowly moving in both directions by buying short-term commercial paper and long-term MBS. The idea is to make more and more "low risk" assets unattractive, pushing investors further and further out the risk curve. If and when they start buying longer-duration Treasuries, this will be how they justify it, I think.
A semi-serious question which I have asked before: Do Keynesians believe there is any such thing as an inflationary depression?
Regarding CRBot.
Sorry folks, that was meant to be posted on the PRIOR thread, not the current thread. Small off by one bug.
If people dislike it I will turn that feature off.
It looks like it is ready to bounce right back up.
Maybe I will not rely too heavily upon my technical analysis skills when I start playing short-time trader in two weeks or so...
I seem to be rusty with the speed of my posting. I wrote a rambling one for the last thread, and since a new one popped on top before I was finished, I would like to selfishly repost one part in response to everyone that was on last night.
With regards to my first post back last night. Thanks to everyone for the kind words, of which I read them all, it was enough to make a man blush. I'm now in PST and not EST, and I certainly don't plan on posting as much as I managed last year -- although we see the awaited return of volatility so who knows how strong my will-power will be. It is in fact the real me, whoever that actually is to you. I did not plan on timing my first post back for innauguration, but yes it does seem I will need to find a new username.
I recommend ShysterGeithner.
Glad to see you back, EHP...
Welcome back, EHP.
May I suggest EvilTIMMAY!!
?
Tax-freeTimmy?
If people dislike it I will turn that feature off.
BrianTX@SD | 01.21.09 - 8:03 pm | #
If it alerts the prior thread, it should help all the people that do not use CR Companion. IMO it will be a useful service.
Has this been posted?
EU Reaches Limit on Spending to Boost Economy
The headline, at least, seems remarkable.
Please wait until treassec is confirmed...
TaxCheatTimmy?
If it alerts the prior thread, it should help all the people that do not use CR Companion. IMO it will be a useful service.
RE | 01.21.09 - 8:10 pm | #
RE, that was the intention.
Nemo 1
CRBot 0
This is going to be like John Henry!
Reverse the letters? PhE? Philosophy Economica?
"These fiscal-stimulus plans have limits," Czech Finance Minister Miroslav Kalousek, who headed the Brussels meeting, told a news conference.
"The inability to get financing for construction projects is a key reason that business conditions continue to be so poor at design firms"
How about: "The inability to FIND SUITABLE DEMAND for construction projects..." ?
The poster formally known as EHP?
Welcome back, and to PST.
dryfly --
This is going to be like John Henry!
Sort of, except this time John Henry has his own steam drill.
it does seem I will need to find a new username.
EvilHenryPaulson | 01.21.09 - 8:05 pm | #
The current one is redundant. Other than that, I see no problem with it.
"These fiscal-stimulus plans have limits," Czech Finance Minister Miroslav Kalousek,
jus me | 01.21.09 - 8:12 pm | #
YA THINK?
Enough with the welcomes, I don't want to distract everyone from matters at hand.
Can we expect the Architecture billings index accuracy to hold up through this massive slump? The big firms are laying off, which means when things do pickup it will first be seen with new very small firms springing up.
So how about Neel Kashkari requesting loan data from banks on a monthly basis, which will be made public. The list includes banks receiving money from the TARP, as in it includes that bank known for its vast consumer lending -- Goldman Sachs.
They didn't announce when the first release would be, but the first reports are due in by January 31 if memory serves me right.
Can we expect CEOs to be raked over coals in congressional inquiries about why small businesses and consumers can't get loans?
Pavel,
That NASA piece is interesting...reads like a grant proposal. I think solar monitoring satellites are government spending that could be ramped up quickly. I'm sure NASA and major contractors have sat designs in a file somewhere...the govt would just need to allocate the funds and work could get underway pretty quickly.
EvilHenryPaulson (or whoever) --
Just got caught up on your post in the prior thread.
Any ideas for retail investors wanting exposure to TIPS? Any opinions on VIPSX or the "TIP" ETF?
Somehow I don't think public shame and humiliation will effect the bank CEO's behavior.
I'm having a hard time, tonight.
Pound Tanks?
We are all Architects now...Art Vandelay would be proud!
...the sea was angry that day my friend, like an old man trying to send soup back in a deli...
"These fiscal-stimulus plans have limits," Czech Finance Minister Miroslav Kalousek,
I saw a former fed governor on CNBC a month or so ago - he stated unequivocally that the fed's balance sheet was infinite
Evil looking bald guy - Seidman I think.
Readers are cautioned against the unbridled optimism in CRs graph. There exists not only survivor's bias but strategic market positioning in those self reported numbers.
U.S. bank executives are buying their own stock with a passion.
Bank of America
JPMorgan Chase
OK, so Ken Lewis could probably find the money for his purchase between the seats of his car. But $12 million is not chump change, even for Jamie Dimon...
"OK, so Ken Lewis could probably find the money for his purchase between the seats of his car. But $12 million is not chump change, even for Jamie Dimon...
Nemo | Homepage | 01.21.09 - 8:24 pm | # "
Got TARP? What's in YOUR wallet?
I think a CR IRC channel is intriguing and the implementation is better than expected.
Nemo - I would bet 20 quotes from an episode of Seinfeld that these CEO's are excercising stock options...
Yeah, this probably means nationalization for these institutions is off the table.
Which means taxpayers are going to eat the losses.
Have a nice day.
The chart looks like ABI is oversold...
Angry Saver writes:
...I saw a former fed governor on CNBC a month or so ago - he stated unequivocally that the fed's balance sheet was infinite...
America, the land of the infinite balance sheets !!
Angry Saver --
Re: Fed's "infinite" balance sheet
I recall hearing it from Wayne Angel.
A scary concept, but an accurate one.
Nemo,
I moved a good bit from intermediate term treasuries to tips recently. The inflation insurance was basically free.
Although TIPs history is short, it seems TIPs work best when REAL yields are falling. Even though nominal interest rates are low now, real yields are rising due to a falling CPI.
Bernanke says he won't allow a deflation. I don't think Bernanke will ever let people gain purchasing power via deflation so I expect real yields to fall.
That's my 2 cents.
U.S. bank executives are buying their own stock with a passion.
Nemo | Homepage | 01.21.09 - 8:24 pm | #
The new "monkey points."
But $12 million is not chump change, even for Jamie Dimon...
Pissed Off In California | 01.21.09 - 8:25 pm | #
If I were a cynical man, I would think there's some skullduggery afoot. Can't be too many things: tax avoidance, options (as mentioned), some advance notice of regulations coming down the pike.
"Will draw blue prints for food"
Nemo,
The more time goes on the more wary I am of ETFs. They all have their own prospectuses that ultimately depend on the strength of unnamed counterparties. A very big thing that goes overlooked was the continuation of Lehman's broker-dealer and ETFs uninterrupted. I don't know far to press one's luck. They aren't unsafe. I would think ETFs that operate under the classic Unit Investment Trust model or mutual funds that carry real return bonds would be a safer approach. In any case I would trust a bond etf to be orders of magnitude safer than some equity index tracking ones.
Perhaps the best advice I can give on the matter is not to take any of this as investment advice. There surely are others who know more than me on the matter.
crispy&cole --
Nemo - I would bet 20 quotes from an episode of Seinfeld that these CEO's are excercising stock options...
You would lose that bet, I am afraid. The Form 4 indicates when it is an option exercise. These were outright market purchases, as in the individuals spent their own money to purchase shares in the open market.
Sometimes done as a token gesture, but in these quantities I have to believe these guys know something. Or think they know something. (Especially Dimon.)
How did that insider buying of Citigroup, infusion of capital into GS and GE by Warren Buffet and insider buying of countless other financials work out over the last 18 months?
It's very hard at this point to tell who's going to survive un-nationalized and who won't.
Purchasing common on the secondary market does nothing to improve the bank's balance sheet or capitalization.
If the idjiots wanted to shore up confidence in their banks, they should have bought some toxic assets.
he stated unequivocally that the fed's balance sheet was infinite...
Werner | 01.21.09 - 8:27 pm | #
IIRC my George Gamow (One Two Three Infinity) there were only three infinities. I wonder where this one fits in?
Of course that should have been three strengths of infinities.
sdtfs,stupidity.
Pissed Off In California writes:
"OK, so Ken Lewis could probably find the money for his purchase between the seats of his car. But $12 million is not chump change, even for Jamie Dimon..."
Sure it's his money, maybe its TARP money, or a bid for sympathy from the jury.... "It took me 6 months to earn that money... choke, sob..."
Just read Denninger about Timmy's TurboTax Turd...
Aleph-naught, the first of the cardinal infinities.
Dick Fuld bought shares of Lehman to shore up market confidence as well...didn't work out so well
Agree that one thing seeming to hold true so far is that the Fed policy treats the spectre of deflation as too awful to allow.
But aren't deflationary and inflationary periods, uh, normal? At least in a quasi-free market system. I realize this concept is deader than Jerry Garcia at this point, but if we can't have deflation, doesn't that really spell out the end game in the sense that all stops will be removed, and all direction focused on creating inflation.
Which I believe can be done. But once started, I wonder if it won't be EXTREMELY difficult to moderate given how primed the system is, and the momentum necessary to turn the battleship around.
Wild overswings, with an overall "winging it," approach could be disasterous on the other side of this abyss we are looking at. Meaning once the recovery occurs, it might be a short period before the ass-end of this crisis shows up in our faces again.
What's a Dick Fuld?
Ken Lewis and Jamie Dimon purchasing their own bank's stock?
Evidently not a spontaneous decision. So there was a deal made, if informally.
Perhaps among other things the CEOs secured their shareholders from dilution, and in return they bought shares. I would venture a guess that Bernanke got his wish that the banks attempt more lending, which is where the talk of government capital injections probably came from.
In that context the CEOs protected their existing positions, by buying into a new joint venture entity between the US government and their banks. Not much additional risk there given that if one fails, they both do.
Was Vikram's Citi purchase because he thought they would have a chance at outperforming versus alternatives, or was it tangentially related to a $300bn guarantee less than 2 weeks later?
If I had the coin I would airlift Kasparov out of Russia, teach him the entirety of high finance in 10 days, and then find out what stories he sees behind the headlines. Although given their rush, I think an average hamster could see through their cunning agreements
I imagine a lot of Japanese CEOs bought shares of their own companies over the past two decades.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^N225#symbol=^N225;range=my
BofA Needs $80 Billion in Fresh Capital: Analysthttp://www.housingwire.com/2009/01/21/bofa-needs-80-billion-in-fresh-capital-analyst/
Got TARP....
If they fail, they're still wealthy beyond imagining - so where's the risk? Risk what?
Caroline Kennedy bows out of senate race:
Sources: Caroline Kennedy withdraws name for Senate seat - CNN.com
Mary Jo Kopechne could not be reached for comment (hat tip J. Taranto, WSJ)
BofA Needs $80 Billion in Fresh Capital: Analysthttp://www.housingwire.com/2009/01/21/bofa- needs-80-billion-in-fresh-capital-analyst/
Funny, Sheila didn't mention that on CNBC this morning...
California Budget Crisis About to Affect People’s Everyday Lives | theTrumpet.com by the Philadelphia Church of God
California Budget Crisis About to Affect Peoples Everyday Lives
Californias creditors have cut the state off. The borrow-and-spend policy may be nearing an end, and with it Californias high standard of living.
The state is spending so much money that Governor Schwarzenegger could fire every single California civil servant and still not come close to balancing the budget! Even if he also fired the other 149,000 legislative aides and people who work for the states courts or university systems (people not directly under the states control), he still couldnt eliminate the deficit.
Ken Lewis is be fired.
Well, if the share purchases are a coordinated attempt to shore up confidence (and not an honest attempt simply to profit), then they must be pretty terrified. That is a lot of money to flush down the toilet when they could obviously just walk away.
sdtfs(Excellent) writes:
If I were a cynical man, I would think there's some skullduggery afoot.
IMO, the new regulator stopped by and was like "eat a big bowl of your own product right now or we beat you with a lead pipe until you die."
Aleph-naught, the first of the cardinal infinities.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.21.09 - 8:43 pm | #
Darn, I'd have thought with all their twists and turns and throwing different curves at us, they'd at least get to aleph-one.
**From the previous thread
Dirk- "However, don't expect it to prevent the car from crashing."
In my view, the President's now-evident lack of decisiveness is key here.
He promised a program and that it would be delivered to Congress on his first day in office. It didn't happen.
Now, every Congressional messiah wannabe is going to be putting together a half-baked plan that will distract/detract from Obama's when it is finally presented.
If, on the first day, he had slammed a 457-page document on the House speaker's desk and demanded action within two weeks, it would have happened.
Now, I'm concerned it will turn into yet another dog fight.
Obama has his own Nike shoes 404 Not Found
Aleph-naught, the first of the cardinal infinities.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.21.09 - 8:43 pm | #
Correct. As long as the Treasury is measuring debt "to the penny," it will possible to create a one-to-one correspondence between debt figures and the integers.
If they start, at some point, to measure debt "by the bucket," then we switch to the continuum.
If, at some point, converting the entire mass of the universe to a quantum computer, and running it for the lifetime of the known universe no longer suffices to estimate the debt, then it will be transcomputable.
One more thing...
When Dimon, Lewis, and Pandit all purchase shares in their own bank in concert with 'liquidity provisions' by the Fed it is in deliberate contrast to the UK. The UK has shown some concern for fairness and thus demanded equity stakes in return for capital injections.
You might have noticed the two governments not being very friendly when it comes to the financial bailing out. The fed's general counsel came out publically to say that Lehman would not have failed if the UK government would have guaranteed Lehman's debts for Barclays in return for a Bear Sterns like fee. I can easily imagine other divisions across the levels of regulators because of the timeline of events, competition for market share, and even reasons of ideology or domestic political public acceptance.
Meanwhile the Swiss have been very cooperative in sacrificing tax shelters
MP - Any chance the strategy is to let things get worse so the public will support the drastic measures?
(Not implying this is a good idea, just curious.)
I just heard on CNBC that the house just approved the 825 billion stimulus.
That's a lotta dinero!
"MP - Any chance the strategy is to let things get worse so the public will support the drastic measures?"
Lisa, I think you give them far too much credit.
Political Interference Seen in Bank Bailout Decisions - WSJ.com
WSJ
Political Interference Seen in Bank Bailout Decisions
Barney Frank Goes to Bat for Lender, and It Gets an Infusion
Troubled OneUnited Bank in Boston didn't look much like a candidate for aid from the Treasury Department's bank bailout fund last fall. The Treasury had said it would give money only to healthy banks, to jump-start lending. But OneUnited had seen most of its capital evaporate. Moreover, it was under attack from its regulators for allegations of poor lending practices and executive-pay abuses, including owning a Porsche for its executives' use.
Nonetheless, in December OneUnited got a $12 million injection from the Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. One apparent factor: the intercession of Rep. Barney Frank, the powerful head of the House Financial Services Committee. Mr. Frank, by his own account, wrote into the TARP bill a provision specifically aimed at helping this particular home-state bank. And later, he acknowledges, he spoke to regulators urging that OneUnited be considered for a cash injection.
Parsons named Citi Chairman
"The appointment will put to use Mr. Parsonss ties to the Obama administration (he was a member of President Obamas transition economic advisory board), as well as his experience in running companies under the federal governments microscope. But it will also most likely offend some on Wall Street who are calling for a more radical shake-up at Citigroup."
"Mr. Parsons said he was in favor of a government solution to the financial crisis that involved essentially creating a national bank that would buy toxic assets, mainly those linked to subprime mortgages, from banks in exchange for commitments to increasing lending."
Parsons Is Named Chairman Of Citigroup - NY Times
Being a betting man the odds seem to be in favor of the bad bank idea.
Is the Amero worse ?
OOOH! CEO's make huge buys of their own stock. I'm all in.
HANG THE MONEY GRUBBING CORPORATISTS, MOST OF WHICH ARE REPUBLICAN.
Maybe they bought stock back from Buffett under threat of him treating them like ordinary stocks/companies.
I would imagine it at least means Lewis isn't going to get fired for continuing to close on the Merrill deal...
I know you hate it, but welcome back EHP - your input has been missed.
I have a new unit of measurement for government spending to make the numbers more tangible than chestnuts and oranges.
The largest lottery in the USA was "$365 million back in February 18, 2006". Assume 2006 $ = 2009 $ for a minute now
The $825 billion stimulus package is equivalent to 2260 Powerballs.
Without being sarcastic, having 87 powerball lotteries a week for H209 would probably trounce the plan in place for stimulus effect (to keep it equivalent that would be no income tax on winnings). Distribute the money based on SS numbers, winners spend the money fast, and everyone has some fun. Not to mention private banking enjoys a nice uptick
Not sure if this was posted:
UPDATE 1-Obama takes oath again after inauguration mistake
UPDATE 2-Obama takes oath again after inauguration mistake
| Reuters
Pavel Chichikov | 01.21.09 - 8:02 pm | #
Themis being launched in 2006 wasn't about studying the cause of the Aurora Borealis. The solar flare cycles being abnormal raised many concerns and studying the effects of a solar superstorm and the change in the magnetospehere became paramount.
National Geographic did an article mid December that had some alarming quotes from the Physics PHD in charge.
Someone mentioned a CR IRC channel. I think that would probably end my marriage and put me out of work, but where do I sign up?
Npr all things considered reporter just said the gov't might have no choice but to follow Swedish plan for nationalizing banks.
Is someone floating trial balloons, or did the editorial controls get lifted with the exiting administration?
.........Japanese 4Q GDP down 10%....S Korea -6%.....
Citi Takes Alwaleed on $10.7 Billion Round Trip: Chart of Day - Bloomberg.com
Citi Takes Alwaleed on $10.7 Billion Round Trip: Chart of Day
Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, who made his investment reputation by putting money into Citicorp 18 years ago, once had a $10.7 billion paper profit on the stake he bought. Now its all gone.
UPDATE 1-Obama takes oath again after inauguration mistake
Bubbles | 01.21.09 - 9:13 pm | #
"because there was one word out of sequence,"
Commenter sk compared the inauguration to Lady Di and P. Charles wedding, and she transposed his middle names! The coincidences are eerie! Obama- stay away from Parisian tunnels!
RockyR: There is a web irc interface at Mibbit IRC client widget or you can connect directly at irc.realize.org:9996 /join #calculatedrisk . Comments are posted to the channel as they are posted in haloscan.
Japanese 4Q GDP down 10%....S Korea -6%
Jay D. | 01.21.09 - 9:22 pm | #
Are those figures annualized?
Brookfield President and Chief Executive Officer Ian Cockwell
Cockwell acquired 53,000 shares from Friday through Tuesday at an average per-share cost of $18.58, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing on Tuesday
3.20 +0.02 (0.63%) Jan 21 4:02pm ET
Michael Dell is optimistic he's going to turn his company around
Dell bought the shares at $20.42 and $20.67 a piece. So far he's down about $6 million; the stock is trading today at $19.37.
10.20
+0.35 (3.55%)
Jan 21
So last July Masco appointed Timothy Wadhams as CEO.
There are a couple of promising signs. Earlier this month Wadhams bought 100,000 shares of Masco for about $18 apiece.
9.60
+0.19 (2.02%)
Jan 21 - Close
........certainly , Plantagenet.........
anon - "Kennedy bows out of race" ... the Mary Joe thing was uncalled for!
I knew her for a brief time back when she was at Columbia Law... actually, hit her with some of my best material, and got her laughing and then and only then I realized who she was - teeth gave her away!
At least I never had to get to the part of 'hey, are your parents still together... what's your dad do...
As I remember she was sweet and down to earth but I thought somewhat on the shy side. So, I've been hoping over the last few weeks that she would bow out becuase I don't believe she has the temprament for it!
Is the NEA still around or is it just a walking corpse. Maybe under Obama it would be better funded and that would be a good spot for her. (back in the early 80s she did do a special arts program at the Met).
FT.com / Comment / Opinion - America’s banks need to hold a yard sale
FT - MEREDITH WHITNEY
America's banks need to hold a yard sale
(Also, Radio Free Wall Street has a very long scary discussion on banks.)
Radio Free Wall Street › Radio Free Wall Street 1/21/09
Obama=Brittany=Paris
When will we ever learn?
Time out. Off to watch Damages on FX at 9 CST...
0.630
0.000 (0.00%)
Jan 21 - Close
$1.40 stock that could easily double or triple in the next 3-12 months
Yet despite all its warts, seven company insiders including the president, CEO, CFO, chairman of the board, an officer and two top VPs bought 89,000 shares for their own portfolios between April 13-17.
side note: the Nemo first thing doesn't annoy me like others but it would be interesting to note the latency between the time of first post and when he actually has anything worthwhile to say!
............4Q Chises GDP down 7% .....official data revealed 3 min ago......
The idea is to make more and more "low risk" assets unattractive, pushing investors further and further out the risk curve. If and when they start buying longer-duration Treasuries, this will be how they justify it, I think.
Nemo | Homepage | 01.21.09 - 8:03 pm | #
Then, when everyone has moved out the duration curve and the credit risk curve while desperately looking for yield in all the wrong places, long-term interest rates and credit risk premiums snap back to historical norms and we are all insolvent on a mark-to-market basis.
This is not going to turn out well.
WhoCouldANode.
Architects have such a undeserved sense of worth. It makes me smile knowing that many architects are suffering.
it does seem I will need to find a new username.
EvilHenryPaulson | 01.21.09 - 8:05 pm | #
The current one is redundant. Other than that, I see no problem with it.
bobn | Homepage | 01.21.09 - 8:14 pm | #
How about "Timmmyyy-EHP's Evil Twin"?
Nemo
As did the CEO of Wachovia. I believe he spent around 10M for his stocks.
Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Japans exports plunged by a record in December, signaling companies will be forced to shut factory lines and fire more workers, driving the economy deeper into recession.
Exports plummeted 35 percent from a year earlier, the sharpest decline since 1980, the earliest year for which there is comparable data, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. The December drop eclipsed a record 26.7 percent decline set the previous month. Economists predicted a 30.3 percent contraction.
China GDP Grew 6.8% in Fourth Quarter, Slowest Pace in 7 Years
Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Chinas economy expanded 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter, the slowest pace in seven years, dragging down growth across Asia and increasing pressure for more stimulus measures as exports plunge.
That matched the median estimate of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, after a 9 percent gain in the previous three months. The statistics bureau released the data in Beijing today.
Plummeting Chinese demand for parts and materials for exports is reverberating across Asia and the Pacific, driving Taiwan, South Korea and Australia closer to recessions and worsening Japans slump. Premier Wen Jiabao said this week that the government must work urgently this quarter to reverse the slowdown and maintain social stability amid a very grim outlook for jobs.
Its an astonishingly steep slowdown, said Paul Cavey, an economist with Macquarie Securities in Hong Kong. We havent yet seen all of the pain.
The central bank may cut the key one-year lending rate by as much as 81 basis points to 4.5 percent by the middle of the year, after 2.16 percentage points of reductions since September, Cavey said. Bank reserve requirements will also decline, he said.
The economys implosion poses a threat to the Communist Partys rule and increases the likelihood that the government will devalue the yuan, prompting a trade war, according to Albert Edwards, a London-based global strategist for Societe Generale SA.
Re: America's banks need to hold a yard sale
eBay would be happy to help. But can you clear a CDS through PayPal?
EvilHenryPaulson,
I don't post much - mostly lurk - but I have to say that I am very glad to see you're back.
I would think ETFs that operate under the classic Unit Investment Trust model or mutual funds that carry real return bonds would be a safer approach. In any case I would trust a bond etf to be orders of magnitude safer than some equity index tracking ones.
EvilHenryPaulson | 01.21.09 - 8:32 pm | #
IMHO, TIPs exposure should be done directly by buying the bonds with the intention of holding to maturity. Economically and tax-wise, the inflation adjustment acts like you bought a straight treasury at a discount.
UPDATE 1-Obama takes oath again after inauguration mistake
Bubbles | 01.21.09 - 9:13 pm | #
John Roberts has been pushing for a paay raise for judges. If we adopt pay-for-performance, it will be late-2012 before he sees more money.
...Comments are posted to the channel as they are posted in haloscan.
briwerk | Homepage | 01.21.09 - 9:23 pm | #
Thank you!
"Themis being launched in 2006 wasn't about studying the cause of the Aurora Borealis. The solar flare cycles being abnormal raised many concerns and studying the effects of a solar superstorm and the change in the magnetospehere became paramount.
National Geographic did an article mid December that had some alarming quotes from the Physics PHD in charge."
The environment has always been fragile for human beings. There are periods of time in which nature is benign from our point of view, and then there are those eras in which climatic 'abnormality' (departure from the norms we're accustomed to), volcanic activity, pandemics and even meteor swarms upset our tranquility.
In the 21st century there is resilience and redundancy, but it can be overwhelmed. In some ways we're more vulnerable than ever, because we're less self-sufficient and more specialized.
That's our human condition. We've been spoiled before and then received shocks that let us know that life is not as simple and predictable as we thought.
The Business Slowdown Gets Serious | The Businessweek Video Library
The Business Slowdown Gets Serious
Recession focus moves away from consumer (video)
Companies are not only slashing payrolls. They are begining to make big cuts in capital spending and inventories that will weigh heavily on economic growth this winter.
Sony to post loss, speed up cost cuts - MarketWatch
Sony Corp. plans to close one of two television factories and cut more than 2,000 full-time jobs in Japan, according to a Japanese media report.
Williams-Sonoma to cut work force by 18% - MarketWatch
Williams-Sonoma to cut work force by 18%
1,100 jobs go as Burberry and meat-processor Vion shut factories |
Business |
guardian.co.uk
More than 1,100 jobs go as Burberry and Vion close factories
Ericsson and TT Electronics to cut 5,700 jobs globally |
Business |
guardian.co.uk
Ericsson and TT Electronics to cut 5,700 jobs globally
That chat thingy seems to maxed out
China grows by +6.8% in 4Q, we sink by about 6%, 12.8% spread, much bigger than what we have been used to seeing with US up around 3$ and China up 10% or so. This downturn seems to be accelerating China's relative importance in the world. Of course, cant trust the chinese govt figures any more than you can trust the US figures.
Dawg: Did you see the map in Pavel's NASA article. It has a nice little circle drawn around the pacific northwest as a location of probable electric system failure. Isn't that where we get our peakload power, since California is to "Pure" to build our own power plants and dams?
"because WE'RE less self-sufficient and more specialized."
.....what's this "we-jazz", whitema
Citigroup boss Sir Win Bischoff: problems are not all bankers' fault - Times Online
Citigroup boss Sir Win Bischoff: problems are not all bankers' fault
Speaking in an interview with BBC Radio 4's Today programme, of which he was the New Year's Day guest editor, Sir Win said: My view is that they [bankers] are partly to blame. There are people who feel remorse about this - there's no doubt about it. Do they all? I don't know.
Offering only limited statements of regret, Sir Win did not say whether he felt it was worth personally apologising for the crisis, which helped to trigger recessions across both the American and British economies.
Dirk,
No you cannot trust the figures for lack of integrity or data, take your pick.
But before commenting on growth gap, I'd like to confirm that we're talking yoy or qoq.
Anyway, the Chinese number is subzero for qoq. They used to be called the "bicycle economy": doesn't do slow.
We'll see soon if their chains are derailed or not.
What I posted yesterday:
a more stark decline will be in quarter on quarter changes, which at 7% yoy would work out to about zero growth for Q3 to Q4. Anything less than 7% would then imply actual shrinkage of the gdp quarter on quarter.
A sub-7% number would also match the feel of a sudden slow down post Olympics that some people around town have reported. And it matches the fall off in electric power generation in November. And the decline of retail property investment about the same time.
As for exports, these are just too seasonal, and by Oct the rush is about done most years. Question is, post Chinese NY (Feb 2 this year) will there be any orders to come back to work? Could be looking at more deadbeat boss stories from factories in the triangles.
For exports, one can only hope Chinese economic planners will speed their domestic stimulus measures rather than attempting to revert to the mercantilistic playbook. Sending that dog out will just set off a chain of like moves by competitors, will blunt their domestic initiatives, and with global demand collapse just wont work anyway.
Anak | 01.21.09 - 4:58 am | #
JD - beware of instant karma, my friend. it is quite unsightly to rejoice in others' suffering. could you not point you platitudes and stereotypes at some other group - message board trolls, perhaps?
"....what's this "we-jazz", whiteman"
Conjure says, "Yes, exactly."
"BWAHAHAHAHA!"
"Black Star, do you think he'd like to hear the story of the turd and the apple?"
Anybody can explain what the hell happened to yen a few hours ago?
I do not trade FX, my interest is purely casual, but WTF?? 90 to 87 in a few minutes and then back?
USDJPY=X: Basic Chart for USD/JPY - Yahoo! Finance
Same happened to EUR-JPY
PS. Not buy the W recovery - January is brutal in retail, worse than December. Layoffs will continue.
".....what's this "we-jazz", whiteman"
Isolated self-sufficiency is a consoling fantasy. No one is physically isolated. Unless we learn that we survive together or go down together, we will confront much more turmoil and suffering than is necessary.
If Britain's pound tanks, do any recovery scenarios still work out? More lipsticking. Mingling lies and truth is a wonderful delusion.
Stay on target.
You don't need a solar storm to cut power to a region. A pandemic, for example, will give the same result, only over a period of days rather than minutes.
JP, in case you didnt see it on the last thread, the new "earnings trends" should be posted at Zacks.com in the morning. Lots of tables in it, but cut and pasted most of the verbiage in the earlier thread post
Laurel & Hardy films:
Another fine mess
Chickens come home ...
LOL....story of the turd and the apple?
In my view, the President's now-evident lack of decisiveness is key here.
mp | 01.21.09 - 8:56 pm | #
May be he and his advisors have finally realized the scope of the problem..Volker aluded to it in testimony today..a multi-trillion $ bailout will be required and that is what they are working on now..
I am hearing credible indications that they may be thinking of setting up a bad bank and buying assets at greater that market implied valuations thus boosting bank capital and their share prices. Hence may be that's why the CEOs are buying up their respective shares en masse today. This step is short of nationalization but will it work. Your thoughts? Does it move the "clock" back in your opinion.
"Does it move the "clock" back in your opinion."
Conjure thinks it would make things worse.
First of all, the US cannot go about solving the banking problem without involving all of the sovereigns involved. In my view, it has to be a coordinated international effort, on both the financial and macro levels.
Volcker should have been zapping those guys with his stun gun. Instead of putting this deal together, they screwed around all fall and in the two months after the election.
By the way, if that -10% GDP number for Japan is true, then Conjure's view is on the horizon.
.....the unintended consequences of "making up rules as you go"....
The Turd and The Apple
Many years ago, in the upper reaches of Minnesota, a cow turd flopped off a creek bank and landed in the stream. It floated down the Mighty Mississippi where it came upon an apple, which had just ripened and dropped off the tree into the river.
"Mind if I tag along," asked the turd.
"No, not at all," replied the apple.
The turd and the apple floated slowly down the Mighty Mississippi until they reached New Orleans.
The apple said, "Goodbye, turd, this is where I get off."
"But," said the turd, "I thought we were in this together?"
"What," asked the apple, "is all of this we sh^t?"
LOL.....I'm saving that...
MrM writes:
Anybody can explain what the hell happened to yen a few hours ago?
I do not trade FX, my interest is purely casual, but WTF?? 90 to 87 in a few minutes and then back?
Symbol Lookup from Yahoo! Finance t=1d
Man you confused me for a bit, I thought there were TWO events today... Anyway your chart is in GMT time - the spike corresponds to between 10 and 11 Eastern - as several traders have commented, something broke - a carry trade getting unwound ! No doubt distorted the rest of day's trading. Check these blogs for more info:
[ The Financial Ninja ]
Toro's Running of the Bulls Market Blog
Fascinating isn't it. I look forward to hearing of liquidations in the coming days..
-K
Good evening Anak!
From your question this morning --
BR, do you read Bill Lind or John Robb, or do they read you?
Similar rootstock. Mobility warfare and constructivist political science.
Haven't read either of them. Lind seems to be a David Duke type Conservative. I am more like a Hsun Tze type Conservative -- expansive, universalist, inclusionist.
"In my view, it has to be a coordinated international effort.."
mp | 01.21.09 - 10:34 pm | #
You would think at this critical juncture that the sovereigns could come together on a compromise..a good test of Obama's new multilateral world view.
By the way, if that -10% GDP number for Japan is true, then Conjure's view is on the horizon.
A drop in exports of more than a third is...christ I don't know...not sure even "cataclysmic" does it justice.
Through family relations have some exposure to resource horror stories in Western Canada - apparently the amount of coal being shipped to China is down by 80% - and a major, major mine has layed off everyone not necessary to keep it in "caretaker" status. Their output as well (primarily copper) is - scratch that, was - China bound.
I'm pretty sure that isn't due to issues with letters of credit...
At least we have the entertainment value of Jim Rogers continuing to call out Geithner as an idiot - if we can't have bread, let's at least have circuses!
BR, thanks for the response. Yeah, if all men aren't brothers, at least all jun tze are.
Lind is a spear chucking Saxon, kind of like my make-believe uncle who embarrasses us all at holiday dinners. But his essays on security matters usually smack of truth, and he has an absolute allergy to D.C. courtier culture.
Robb is worth following in real time on the rise of non-state solutions / threats.
IMHO
r mutt writes:
JD - beware of instant karma, my friend. it is quite unsightly to rejoice in others' suffering. could you not point you platitudes and stereotypes at some other group - message board trolls, perhaps?
r mutt | 01.21.09 - 9:59 pm | #
It is not unsightly (see I can state personal opinons as if they were fact too), nor no I believe that you consider me to be your friend.
Can we expect CEOs to be raked over coals in congressional inquiries about why small businesses and consumers can't get loans? -EHP
EHP, I haven't anything like your fund of insights to draw on, but let me say I hope they will be called before Congressional committees and, further, that they'll be prepared with data to show the level of lending in progress as well as some indication of how much had to be declined over questions of creditworthiness or of other unsuitable risks.
It would add considerable clarity to understanding the nature of lending at the moment, and perhaps shift the discussion onto more realistic - less theoretical - bases.
Several statistical references posted here show home, auto and other sector purchases and borrowing continue today while, at the same time, there are rhetorical/journalistic citations claiming all lending is frozen. I'd like to see that either established or debunked.