Bill May Not Stimulate Jobs Right Away
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projected less than half of the $355 billion that House Democrats want to spend on highways, bridges and other job-creating investments is likely to be used before the end of fiscal 2010.
U.K. Pound Serves as Omen for Dollar U.K. Pound Serves as Omen for Dollar - WSJ.com
While the dollar continues to benefit from its unique position in financial markets for now, it is far from clear that the resilience will last. "Right now the market is beating up on the pound, but at some point it will look for something else to pick on," says Paul Mackel, a currency strategist at HSBC in London.
The fact that the Federal Reserve stands ready to use a host of unconventional measures to flood the economy with liquidity in an effort to stimulate growth "could hurt the dollar quite badly" later this year, he says.
I was telling him business was going to be awful during the election period and that we were coming up in November to a terrible economic scene which would be even worse probably when he got inaugurated. So far Ive been either lucky or right on that.
...
We have a business slowdown particularly after October 1st it was sort of on a glide path downward up til roughly October 1st and then it went into a real nosedive.
But October 17 is when he wrote an op-ed for the peons telling them to buy stocks:
Comrade Misean, I wonder how many of these empty palaces, estates, and titanic CRE projects can afford security anymore?
As for Buffet, why is the credit system so key? Isn't that "financial system" history now? The one that involved kingly investment banks and a 70% consumer economy?
o matter what govts around the world may or not do, FatherTime is the cure - probably 2-3yrs from now the endurance event will begin to change to what we expect a recovery to look like, and ofcourse there'll be N false dawns between now and then, and when the real dawn arrives, there'll be unbelievers til noon....
SG: Whats the most important thing you think he needs to fix?
WB: Well the most important thing to fix right now is the economy.
The car is broke so lets fix the car. How? By throwing EVERY tool in the toolbox at it. Tire iron the to windshield coming. Real men of genius at work.
Warren is one of the main players that will have to come clean with god bank, bad bank, and his reinsurance and offshore trash that is Level lll will have to be disclosed for being the shit it is. The faster we get rid of these types of symbolic shills the better off America will be; how the F do you think this pirate got his billions, by being honest?
One of Buffet's other investment credos is if you can't stomach watching your equity portfolio drop 50%, then you shouldn't be in equities at all. His perspective is always very long term. I think most of the easy money has been made from the short side at this point. That being said, with a Fed balance sheet of $4T and a $2T budget deficit coming up, I think I'll be able to spend most of the rest of my career as a fixed income trader short treasuries.
the worlds greatest minds are advising they have no clue at all so the govt throws everything hoping something sticks and understanding that it is so bad, it is worth potentially creating a bigger problem...
Isnt that kinda what Bush did regarding Iraq and Terrorism in General?????
I wonder how WB is feeling about his Goldman acquisition? He sounds like such a Pollyanna....but what is he going to say, his BerkH. is full of stocks in DOW companies.....
Isnt that kinda what Bush did regarding Iraq and Terrorism in General????? stay classy San Diego | 01.22.09 - 2:35 pm | #
Not quite. Bush knew very well what was happening on the ground in Iraq but clearly didn't want the public to know. The worst of all worlds and nothing innocent about it!
From the start of 4q 2008 until now the total US rail loaded units dropped by about 150,000. Looks like a 27% drop in 3 months. All their charts are showing a slight upturn this week.
Interesting. I wonder if the US port number have started to pick up.
I do not know if it is a bottom but I am curious why rail traffic would pickup rather than continue its steep descent. It can't be just coal being moved...
Just got back from shopping at WalMart. The store had been re-arranged since I was there a few months ago:
*Canned Food aisle had shrunk from a whole aisle to 1/3 of an aisle.
*No fresh seafood counter anymore.
*OTC drug area larger.
*Clothing areas smaller,fat women's clothes area shrunk significantly. Many clothes on clearance for $1 to $2.
*Shoe area same size but tall shelves has been totally removed and replaced with very short shelves. Only about 1/4 the amount of previous inventory.
*Less toys, no bicycles to the ceiling.
*Craft section totally gone.
I felt as if I needed a tin-foil hat to be in the place, as it seemed WalMart was preparing for the coming depression / less available Chinese imports in a big way.
Another cheery note: The GA unemployment rate is now 8.1%, the highest in 25 years, and double the rate of 1 year ago.
"We do know over time the American machine works wonderfully and it will work wonderfully again."
Just a bunch of gung-ho talk. It was easy to be "the machine" when the rest of world was in ruins or under communism after the WWII and all the educated ex-nazi engineers and other scientists from ruined Europe happily migrated to the land of Disneyland.
Nowadays venture capitalists set up promising startup firms just as easily or even easier in Germany, Sweden, Russia, Thailand, China or India than in the USA.
If we have no jobs(we pay no tax's.)
If we import everything we need(with no jobs we pay no tax's.)
If we outsource our data(we have no jobs and we pay no tax's.)
If we run this Country on his advise, big business will corrupt more and be helt less responsible.
I do not know if it is a bottom but I am curious why rail traffic would pickup rather than continue its steep descent. It can't be just coal being moved... nova | Homepage | 01.22.09 - 2:42 pm | #
Seasonal - there are two big selling seasons (1) Christmas and (2) Spring lawn & garden... #1>>#2 but #2 is still much bigger than the rest of the months (baseline). We are entering the Spring selling season in Feb-Mar. The question to ask is this blip in transport bigger than typical. I can't answer that. Just talked to a buddy on the phone & he just left a big lawn & garden mfger in the SE USA - said they were going 'BTTW'.
stay classy San Diego said: "...the worlds greatest minds are advising they have no clue at all so the govt throws everything hoping something sticks and understanding that it is so bad, it is worth potentially creating a bigger problem..."
A couple of points. One, the "greatest minds" advising the government aren't the only minds working on the problem(s), the only minds capable of doing something constructive. There seems to be a widespread assumption that our economy will live or die based on what the Federal government does and it's just not true. Our economy will live or die based on our actions. A trillion dollars for a bailout is a lot, but we've got a $13 trillion+ per year economy, and we generate most of it.
Second, I think the actions taken so far (and the ones likely to follow) will have a predictably positive effect on both the stock market and the economy. But the question that even the "greatest minds" are likely to have a hard time answering is "When?"
FWIW, my answer: Things will start looking better during Q2 of this year.
It can't be just coal being moved... nova | Homepage | 01.22.09 - 2:42 pm | #
I dunno, Nova - there's a lot of electricity being generated right now. It's cold, and there's quite a number of homes reliant on electricity for heating.
BTW- his mentor B. Graham wrote his book on investing because of the depression, and not during any of the funny money eras. When Buffet folded his first company, it was because he didn't understand the machinations. I'll agree he might be deluded, but I'd trust his judgement over most others.
Jesse Livermore was a trader, Buffett used to be a value investor, don't know if that's still true. Which should give the current crop of traders pause for thought.
P.S. Gary you seem to be in a bad mood today, just sayin'.
Comrade Misean is Dope writes:
Ticker Tape of Doom,
"What do you guys/gals think would be a good buy in the broadband space?"
I'd recommend a lapband. Broadband is going to be that was oh so "that time when we had food other than Moose and Squirrel"...IMHO.
Nostrovia,
I hear ya Misean.
I am biased towards the dark side.(as evidenced by the handle my wife gave me)
However - I don't believe starvation will be a major problem in the US unless there is another major drought( like the dust bowl in GD1) in the breadbasket.
There are probably some opportunities here for those who have a little play money?
What are some good companies that are a value in that market?
The answer is nobody knows. The economists dont know. All you know is you throw everything at it...
This statement doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
It only makes sense it you believe that things are so bad that the economy is going to collapse anyhow, so you don't need to worry about potentially making it worse.
Top tax rates must be raised to what they were during Ike's presidency--91%.
Mel | 01.22.09 - 2:23 pm | #
No, Art Laffer's curve is both true and trivial, yes there are 2 rates at which the govt will get 0 revenues, 0% and 100%. It therefore follows that there are at least 2 rates that will get to any other given level of revenues, except for the revenue maximization point. Given the choice, always go for the lower of the 2 points, but now we need to find the revenue maximization point. I am pretty sure it is higher than the current levels, that can be seen from Clinton raising it to 39% and revenues rising sharply, and by Bush cutting it to 35% and producing monster deficits, even durring the "Bush boom" (as anemic as it was). My gut tells me the revenue max point is around 50%, but I have not seen any emperical data on it.
Funny, I remember way back in 1999 and 2000 when a number of commentaries of how Buffet was a dinosaur who didn't get the new economy were written. Hmmm, seems he saw that it was a sham afterall. With government composing 40% of gdp and expanding, and the Fed cornering the market for ink to keep the printing presses humming, I don't think a repeat of the 1930's deflationary depression is likely. 1965-182 is a better template to me, and we're currently at 2009 = 1974. The 1970's were a pretty depressing decade, unless you really liked disco that is.
Cut Seb some slack - Q2 will look better than Q1... it's a given. Winter will have passed an it will be Spring and love will be in the air... depressions are always better when it is warm and sunny and you are in love. Nothing worse than lonely cold as a witches tit depression.
"What are some good companies that are a value in that market?"
With the uneven and volatile way the economy is crumbling...there's really no way to know. Short term, buy whatever the id ten t's in Warshington shovel money at. Longer than that...dunno. Just staying liquid and agile for the moment.
Top tax rates must be raised to what they were during Ike's presidency--91%. Mel | 01.22.09 - 2:23 pm | #
Excellent idea. Now that parasites have looted our economy, let's make sure there's no incentive for new efforts at generating actual value. Important to keep competition away from the wealthy.
BTW, most people confuse high-income (trying to be rich) with large-assets (already rich.) The wealthy establishment love to see high-income-earners referred to as rich, because the remedies then penalize the aspirants.
Cut Seb some slack - Q2 will look better than Q1... it's a given. Winter will have passed an it will be Spring and love will be in the air... depressions are always better when it is warm and sunny and you are in love. Nothing worse than lonely cold as a witches tit depression. dryfly | 01.22.09 - 3:02 pm | #
I'd almost believe that (yes, I saw your smiley), except that in the Spring, we're going to dance another round of earnings, and after everyone said this quarter was absolutelypositively the MOTHER OF ALL KITCHEN SINKS, what do they do for encore spin?
No, Art Laffer's curve is both true and trivial, yes there are 2 rates at which the govt will get 0 revenues, 0% and 100%. It therefore follows that there are at least 2 rates that will get to any other given level of revenues, except for the revenue maximization point. Given the choice, always go for the lower of the 2 points, but now we need to find the revenue maximization point. I am pretty sure it is higher than the current levels, that can be seen from Clinton raising it to 39% and revenues rising sharply, and by Bush cutting it to 35% and producing monster deficits, even durring the "Bush boom" (as anemic as it was). My gut tells me the revenue max point is around 50%, but I have not seen any emperical data on it. Dirk van Dijk | 01.22.09 - 3:01 pm | #
That is the Laffer we don't hear on MSM or from Sean Rush Larry & company...
I think Buffett knows exactly what's going on. He's deliberately cheerleading in try to buck up confidence. He's not going to get on national TV and say "Run for the hills! Stock up on ammunition! There will be riots, breakdown of civil order!" That certainly would make things worse, especially for his own portfolio, which is pretty heavy on "unnecessary" retail, last time I looked. The same goes for all the talking heads, really.
I'd almost believe that (yes, I saw your smiley), except that in the Spring, we're going to dance another round of earnings, and after everyone said this quarter was absolutelypositively the MOTHER OF ALL KITCHEN SINKS, what do they do for encore spin? Eric | 01.22.09 - 3:04 pm | #
That was as depressing as a backyard full of Springtime thawing dog poop...
@Ticker Tape of Doom: Transmeta is one of the stocks I keep seeing on the new 52-week highs list. No clue what that means (I ain't buying in this market climate), but might be worth an inquiry if you're looking for a tech play. Personally I figure the sinking tide isn't going to leave many boats afloat and I'd rather play odds that are more in my favor.
"Ah no, they're not.
No they didn't realize they were supposed to start.
Never mind, we'll soon sort that out, the judge is explaining it to them now.
I think Nigel and Gervaise have got the idea.
All set to go."
Until recently, Orlov identified the readers of his book, and of a blog he maintains, Club Orlov, as belonging to one of three basic cultural categories: back-to-the-land types, peak oilers, and all-around Cassandras, or doomers. But in the past few months, he has acquired a fourth audience, composed of financial professionals, who have been bolstering his gut feeling that the United States is bankrupt. One of Orlovs greatest fans is the author James Howard Kunstler, who also writes a weekly blog column. His latest contribution to the doomersphere is the novel World Made by Hand, set in the post-collapse future.
.... Jim Sinclair, a currency and commodities trader, is the king of goldbugs, an intermediate class of doomer. He posts daily commentary on his Web site, jsmineset.com. Mentions Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of the best-selling book The Black Swan, about the inevitability of unforeseeable events. Three days after the Presidential election, Kunstler addressed the audience at a Vermont Independence Convention, sponsored by the pro-secessionist group Second Vermont Republic. Mentions Gerald Celente, Kirkpatrick Sale, Chellis Glendinning, Lynette Clark, Rob Williams, Thomas Naylor, and Dennis Steele.
Read the full text of this article. (Registration required.)
Democrats say...Stimulate!!...tax cuts now and infrastructure projects over next 18 months.
Repubs say...If we stimulate...more tax cuts now and less spending.
Dem translation: since 50% of people don't pay Fed taxes, we must limit tax cuts or the wrong people might get them. If we stretch out the projects long enuf, we can grease our re election in 2012.
Rep translation: If you won't spend more on tax cuts, we'll hang you in the midterms on socialist redistribution and pork barrel schemes.
Anyone read the book about him, the most recent said he's a big cry baby.
A real pussy that can't do anything for himself domestic, and has to have a live in/lover friend, provided by his first wife who had left him.
My theory for the last 6 months or so is this- the market will bottom the month Berkshire Hathaway is forced to restate it's earnings for the last decade. The roaches are everywhere.
I used Monday's blowoff to get about as long equities as I'm comfortable with. For me that means, going from the near zero allocation I've had since 2006, to about 50%. The other 50% is tips and short-term cd's, since I think the next debacle in waiting is the bond market. I think Q2 will be better than Q1, and the economy will surprise a little to the upside in H2. It will be a false dawn though, once inflation starts to ramp up in 2010. In the meantime though, there might be some money to be made in very selective portfolio of low-leverage companies. And, if I'm wrong, I'm actually pretty handy with a shot gun, and money is pretty meaningless in a complete societal breakdown anyway.
In other words, talking his book. He did write a shitload of at-the-money puts about 30% ago.......
Eric | 01.22.09 - 3:09 pm | #
Exactly. I'll listen to anyone, but I have no reverence for this guy. Past results are not indicative of future performance (see Bill Miller). I got zero from the content of the interview.
And, if I'm wrong, I'm actually pretty handy with a shot gun, and money is pretty meaningless in a complete societal breakdown anyway. Turbo | 01.22.09 - 3:14 pm | #
That has been my investment strategy since about 1998...
There's an interesting fear based concern about Buffett's major holdings in the current deflationary recession. Insurance is not profitable when reinvestment is negative, insurable assets are shrinking, renewals are dropping and people no longer have equity in assets worth insuring.
Buffet is guilty of pretending to be a populist and not using his position to force change in the financial markets. His position regarding the TARP and bank reform is more of the same.
He's part of the problem and is simply a wolf in sheep's clothing.
It would have been better if John "The fundamentals of our economy are strong" McCain had been elected instead. He would have dropped dead in short order which would have put the low functioning borderline retard Palin in power. That would have been awesome! "Jesus will save the banks, you betcha!!!"
In any case it is clear what the answer is: the key to fixing the economy is giving the randian psychopaths who fucked everything up in the first placed another kick at the can. They can finish the job they started with that deranged halfwit Ronnie Raygun.
Does anyone here entertain the possibility that those who preach non stop doom might also be talking their book and trying to line their pockets preaching an unbalanced vision of the future?
\tDoes anyone here entertain the possibility that those who preach non stop doom might also be talking their book and trying to line their pockets preaching an unbalanced vision of the future? Ticker Tape of Doom | 01.22.09 - 3:20 pm | #
Does anyone assume that they're NOT talking their book? If you believe something, you act on that info.
Buffet and Gates charity work is more than enough to forgive them any transgressions committed in making money and creating jobs.
Keep waiting for one of the highly visible billionares to come out and call BS. Mark Cuban did it and received an SEC inspired indictment. What if a few of them banded together and suggested a plan? Who wouldn't pay attention?
Quick lesson for anyone else considering doing the same?
Not sure if my co-workers (edumacated librarian/proff types) are hip to the finer points of econotrauma, but I am swamped with orders for eggs.
I only have 9 hens right now, and every egg they lay is now spoken for. I charge $2.50/dz, which is way less than most organic free-range, but enough to make it worth my trouble.
At this rate, they'll pay for the next batch of chicks I'm ordering this weekend. Too bad it takes 5 months til they lay, but with the bigger flock I can take bulk orders from local stores.
OT but interesting. NYTimes just published that an illegal housekeeper and tax issues derailed Caroiine Kennedy's bid to become NY senator.
More problems with TurboTax?
"ALBANY Problems involving taxes and a household employee surfaced during the vetting of Caroline Kennedy and derailed her candidacy for the Senate, a person close to Gov. David A. Paterson said on Thursday, in an account at odds with Ms. Kennedys own description of her reasons for withdrawing."
Does anyone here entertain the possibility that those who preach non stop doom might also be talking their book and trying to line their pockets preaching an unbalanced vision of the future?
Ticker Tape of Doom | 01.22.09 - 3:20
These fine folks wouldn't do that, would they? You remember the night Congress voted no for an auto bailout? Armageddon was here.
Buffet is doing a fine job holding onto his billions. Snigger. BRK.A $150k (high) to $88k in the last 13 months. Either he's lost nearly half his billions or he is dishonestly misleading his investors by doing something contrary to his stated investment policies. I'm open to either, or both.
@Rob Dawg - wasn't there considerable speculation about Warren B causing GS some headaches because they had to front collateral for his long-term short puts on SPX? I'm not sure this was ever confirmed but for someone that claims to think derivatives are awful things...
In previous discussions about Buffett, I've challenged this: "Name the billionaires who haven't lost 40% of their wealth in the last year." Please tell me.
Insurance is not profitable when reinvestment is negative, insurable assets are shrinking, renewals are dropping and people no longer have equity in assets worth insuring.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.22.09 - 3:16 pm | #
Not to mention the coming flood of shareholder lawsuits. Somebody's writing liability insurance on these collapsing financials (not to mention all the other collapsing sectors to follow). That's not so much Buffett's problem, I suppose, but companies with heavy D&O exposure might be in for some hurt: Chubb, Ace, Travelers, AIG...oh, never mind....
Sorry Seb, I don't want to hurt feelings. It's just that your terrible and completely inaccurate calls were made with such confidence and bravado, ala Kudlow etc.
You continue to do the same, which is hard to read without making some sort of comment.
I have no interest in owning any financial or company with a significant financial operation. And I'm very cynical about the medium and long-term prospects of civilization in general. My current thought centers more on what I see around me, which is all of the "professionals" I speak to who were uber-bullish this time last year are now uber-bearish and short stocks for the first time in their lives - ie. the really bad trader-o-meter is screaming a buy signal right now. If I'm wrong, unlike most people, I'll actually stop out before it gets too painful, and wait for another opportunity.
Seen the pitcher last night, Grapes of Wrath, best cussed pitcher I ever seen.
The Grapes of Wrath, you know is about us pullin' out of Oklahoma and Arkansas, and down south, and a driftin' around over state of California, busted, disgusted, down and out, and a lookin' for work.
Shows you how come us to be that a way. Shows the dam bankers men that broke us and the dust that choked us, and comes right out in plain old English and says what to do about it.
It says you got to get together and have some meetins, and stick together, and raise old billy hell till you get youre job, and get your farm back, and your house and your chickens and your groceries and your clothes, and your money back.
Go to see Grapes of Wrath, pardner, go to see it and don't miss.
You was the star in that picture. Go and see your own self and hear your own words and your own song.
Woody Guthrie, in one of his People's World columns (1939-'40), reprinted in Woody Sez, New York, NY, 1975, p. 133.
It has become clearer to me that two points stand out about Buffett to those who read between the lines and do a little searching:
First, this guy is actually believing his own press (or he is slowly losing it).
Second, while he has made a ton investing, this guy produces nothing of value.
As a side note, he plays both sides of the fence as well as anyone and how many people has he shafted with his insurance cos.? How many people have Geico and found out their coverage wasn't what it should be?
How many found out that the hurricane is an act of God and isn't covered? (I also like how atheist insurance people say hurricanes are an act of God.) Don't get me wrong, you can believe what you want, just don't believe God doesn't exist, but use that card when it means paying up on an insurance claim. HYPOCRISY!
Also, for all the capitalism talk, he sure likes handouts as much as the next person!
What a crock.
He may have billions, but at least I have my integrity and consistency.
A nationalization of the private sector can indeed be called socialist, but only when it is carried out by a socialist government. In absence of this key ingredient, a perfect melding of government and private business is, in fact, the gold standard of fascism.
As a practical matter, failing at capitalism does not automatically make you socialist, no more than failing at marriage automatically make you gay. Even if desperation makes you randy for anything that is warm-blooded and doesn't bite, the happily gay lifestyle is not automatically there for the taking.
However, here a distinction can be drawn: systems that attempt to do good seem far more corruptible than ones that have no such pretensions. Thus, a socialist system, inspired by the noblest of impulses to help one's fellow man, quickly develops social inequalities that it was designed to eradicate, breeding cynicism,
Let us start with the observation that intelligence, and the ability to benefit from higher education, occur more or less randomly within a human population. The genetic and environmental variation is such that it is not even conceivable to breed people for high intellectual abilities, although, as a look at any number of aristocratic lineages will tell you, it is most certainly possible to breed blue-blooded imbeciles.Thus, offering higher education to those whose parents can afford it is a way to squander resources on a great lot of pampered nincompoops while denying education to working class minds that might actually soak it up and benefit from it. A case in point: why exactly was it a good idea to send George W. Bush to Yale, and then to Harvard Business School? A wanton misallocation of resources, wouldn't you agree?
Turbo writes: I have no interest in owning any financial or company with a significant financial operation. And I'm very cynical about the medium and long-term prospects of civilization in general. My current thought centers more on what I see around me, which is all of the "professionals" I speak to who were uber-bullish this time last year are now uber-bearish and short stocks for the first time in their lives - ie. the really bad trader-o-meter is screaming a buy signal right now. If I'm wrong, unlike most people, I'll actually stop out before it gets too painful, and wait for another opportunity.
Turbo | 01.22.09 - 3:34 pm | #
I didn't even know it was called speculation. Good Ole Boy Warren has been engaged in sophisticated exotic financial instruments for decades and until recently was doing very good with them:
Buffett's huge derivatives bet proves costly
Posted Nov 20 2008, 12:48 PM by Jon Markman
Filed under: investing, Investment Banking, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Jon Markman
Shares of Warren Buffett's insurance holding company are on the ropes this month, plunging 30% in part because the famed investor dabbled in an area of the market he has long publicly derided: derivatives. And due to a tangled web of financial relationships, they may be taking Goldman Sachs shares down with them.
But don't let that stop you from reading his 2002 Berkshire annual report where he claimed BRK was getting out of these "time bombs."
Uh, just about everyone on this blog does that, whether they're calling for a Q3 recovery, or recommending ammo for the apocalypse. Eric | 01.22.09 - 3:35 pm | #
Not true Eric. The "bravado list" here is much shorter. I'm not enough of a student of human/trader nature to know for sure, but I have a hunch that bravado is a money-losing character trait in the long run.
But as much as I like to 'game' the doom-scenarios, I'm scared sh!tless at the thought of going up against it.
Actually Joanna, so am I. I like the lifestyle - worked on a farm. God, you can bust ass doing that. If you keep it small - like what I think you and your partner are doing - that is nice.
Watch out tho. Getting livestock can end up owning you. They can be a real ball and chain.
OT - I have a question about technical analysis/ Elliot Wave trading. Is it all just a self fulfilling prophecy or does it have a sound basis behind it? I mean if reading a chart could make you rich, why not just feed all possible permutations/combinations to a computer, sit back and watch yourselves get rich? Have I answered my own question?
Woody Guthrie, in one of his People's World columns (1939-'40), reprinted in Woody Sez, New York, NY, 1975, p. 133.
foolonthehill | 01.22.09 - 3:35 pm |
Amazing that Woody Guthrie was from Oklahoma - but not surprising he didn't return there.
We were so poor and hungry the local squirrels would sacrfice one of the males every fall on the hiway in front. Just for us. Dang nice little critters.
Dang fools in Oklahoma.
Their grandparents lost their farms to the dam bankers and these fools vote for the party of those dam bankers.
They got used and mistreated by the SoCal Big farmers but they vore for the party of those Big farmers
Dang fools vote for Inhofe and Coburn. Two of the biggest mule heads in the Senate.
""Name the billionaires who haven't lost 40% of their wealth in the last year.""
David Geffen? Even if Eddie's Sears antics hit the shoals, DG is a smart guy with many eggs in many baskets, none of which are too excited about equities.
We've been getting so little rain here these last couple of years in CA that it seems to me like the Californians might end up like the Okies. Getting some rain today, but far from enough. Really, if an agricultural event accompanies this recession, we could see a lot of misery.
We tried to play it right with our circumstances to have a few years of practice before really having to depend on our own production for food. We made some expensive but valuable mistakes regarding livestock, and I think we have it right finally. We also stopped looking at bigger places, because there is only so much 2 people can care for.
Check out what these people are doing on a city lot -
We've been getting so little rain here these last couple of years in CA that it seems to me like the Californians might end up like the Okies. Getting some rain today, but far from enough. Really, if an agricultural event accompanies this recession, we could see a lot of misery
Heard there are good paying jobs in Oklahoma
Can see them now. Streaming East with a dozen tucked into a Hummer or a Navigator with their 52"er tied to the top.
Really, if an agricultural event accompanies this recession, we could see a lot of misery.
ille_vir | 01.22.09 - 3:45 pm |
A good friend sells specialty chemicals, including Potash products. Due to the price of crude last summer, many parts of the world did not fertilize and have lowered yeilds. Combine that with China's migration to a protein based diet and the world is one crop failure away from a regional famine.
Check out what these people are doing on a city lot -
I did the community garden thing for about 10 years. Not going to do it anymore for a couple reasons. Age, time, and thieves. I don't mind gleaning but don't strip the plant.
We were so poor that we had to take turns smelling the neighbors cornbread cooking.
You could smell the neighbor's cooking? That must have been nice, but of course we had it tough. We had to listen to the neighbors tell us about what their cooking smelled like. Filled us up for days, that did.
To put it another way, Buffet has lost more billions than Madoff.
Hadasssah hospital lost 90 million to Madoff, but when they checked their numbers, they realized they had pulled 130 million out over the years. Just a "big numbers" problem? Not.
I am glad you made it through that part of your life Comrade Dope(jg).
I am gathering some anecdotal evidence for a hypothesis I have.
I believe (perhaps falsely) that those who have experienced significant setbacks or poverty in their lives and or come from broken homes are more likely to take a gloom and doom view point than those who come from stable families and have not experience any setbacks.
Also that those who have experienced these situations are psychologically more prepared to deal with difficult economic circumstances.
But this can also be a liability when opportunity for a hopeful scenario presents itself.
I am seeking a balanced viewpoint for myself. A viewpoint dominated by a sense of impending doom is not an emotionally stable position for me to remain in.
Although, I am prepared/preparing for the worst while hoping for the best.
I think the reference to Pearl Harbor is oddly used. The Japanese are not bombing us - a reference to the Great Depression would have been more to the point.
For somebody who says he advised Obama of coming difficulties, Warren seems to have done precious little to protect his shareholders' value.
Yes he only made more money than anyone else in the world (at one point by simply investing). He really sucks. That WB is a sham. All luck. Elvis | 01.22.09 - 3:13 pm | #
ya', but what has he done for me lately!? <just kidding>
After the PPT stops its manipulation (who knows when), I think EW will prove very useful. It makes sense to me. Comrade-Dope jg (jg) | 01.22.09 - 3:42 pm | #
That is the part I don't understand, if you are just reading charts - why should it matter? FWIW, I don't believe in the PPT, else the markets wouldn't have been down 50% YTD.
A good friend sells specialty chemicals, including Potash products. Due to the price of crude last summer, many parts of the world did not fertilize and have lowered yeilds. Combine that with China's migration to a protein based diet and the world is one crop failure away from a regional famine. \t lama | \t \t \t \t01.22.09 - 3:50 pm | #
I know nothing about agriculture, but it seems to me we've always had some region of the world in the crop failure/famine state as long as I've lived. Are we somehow worse off now? Just-in-time practices made it to the agricultural sector as well?
agree with wally. very bizarre reference. Pearl Harbor. what vicious foreign external entity has bombed our financial markets?
well, for one those damn commie savers...
/end sardonicism...
but Buffett is in the room and I agree that he has leaked that really things are that bad, try anything, all of it, it might work. Swallow drano if it'll cure the cancer...
""Name the billionaires who haven't lost 40% of their wealth in the last year.""
That is why I donate to the "Habitat for Wall Street" every time I buy something! Just like donating to government employees extra holiday fund every time I pay taxes.
You need to look at the oversight of Rezko's affordable housing portfolio to understand the payoff received. Essentially Rezko bled numerous affordable housing projects of their cash flow without making the necessary reinvestments to prevent degradation of those properties. This was a well known fact within the Chicago Department of Housing and within Alderman Preckwinkle's ward. It is my understanding that these issues were raised to the State Senate level where Mr. Obama was the elected representative for this portion of the City of Chicago. Needless to say enforcement measures by the City to bring these buildings up to code were not taken. This is my brief take on where Rezko received its "payback" for the land deal.
-Vert
mock turtle writes:
and now to my friend..comrade jg
much of what you said above is worth considering
but im put out , like gary, with one of your comments
you have no reason that i am aware of, to say that obama is influenced or connected with chicago mob...re economics or otherwise
as for rezco... yeah obama got a sweet deal on the purchase of one parcel of land
show me decisions obama made that constitute a payback and ill cry foul along with you
mock turtle | 01.22.09 - 3:20 pm | #
Nice site, Joanna, looks too cold fur us Black Star Ranch | 01.22.09 - 3:57 pm | #
Agree. Love to do something similar, but we wouldn't know who to leave in charge of the livestock if we went to visit family. We'll have to concentrate on stuff that can be automated, e.g., irrigated.
"Habitat for Wall Street"
Spend a weekend in lovely Greenwich voluteering to complete a spec mansion for a hedge fund master of the universe. Tres karma!
That's why the open pollinating varieties are preferable. Those plants which adapt to the various pests are preserved by going to seed to be reused the next year.
we have a city plot as well, as well as a backyard raised bed system...in any case, last year was fine for city plot...my barometer or unofficial economic forcast will be based on pilferage which I expect.
If you're not turning, you're not skiing, then the slope is controlling you. Someone told me that. Have a nice weekend. lama | 01.22.09 - 3:55 pm | #
First time since the quadruple bypass. I'll be sure to bring back a real estate implosion report from Mammoth Lakes, CA. Technically they are still skyin' the prices but I've seen that Potemkin false front before in Ventura County and before that the Inland Empire. I know what to look for. I'll count the turboprops on the tarmack. I'll see how full the gondola is from the Condotel. I'll notice the weather worn for sale signs in front of unplowed properties. I'll look for Realitter® signs from out-of-area.
Interesting Times- "Say today (right now) they decide to nationalize, wouldn't we still get a depression?"
Not necessarily. A lot of this still depends on public perception, and that's one of the reasons a few tenths of a second are left.
Had Obama displayed decisiveness by laying a plan on the table and telling Congress that he expected it on his desk for signature within two weeks, the entire world would have said,
WHOA! This guy knows what he wants.
Alas, he is not inspiring confidence.
You can say, well, give the guy a chance. The problem is that our economy is on the brink. There isn't time for warm fuzzies.
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
I have said it before, and I'll say it again - JP Morgan is insolvent! Anybody from JPM who wants to correct can simply email me via the contact form at the top of my site to show me where I'm wrong. I am always willing to admit that I am wrong when I actually am. I don't think this is one of those times. Keep in mind that throughout this entire credit debacle, I haven't been wrong about a bank or insurer yet.
Have a great time in Mammoth. Good memories, until my father explained to me that it was really a dormant volcano that still registered magma flows and could awake at any time.
"Further, the process of transformation, even if it brings revolutionary change, is likely to be a long one, absent some catastrophic and catalyzing event - like a new Pearl Harbor"
-- PNAC (Project for a New American Century - Cheney, Scooter Libby, Richard Perle, Donald Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz, etc.)
"The Pearl Harbor of the 21st century took place today."
-- George W. Bush diary entry, 9/11/2001
"In fact in September I said we were in an economic Pearl Harbor and Ive never used that phrase before."
-- Warren Buffett
Disaster Capitalism rolls on, using the same tired meme. How about "New Gulf of Tonkin", or "new Operation Northwoods" instead?
Going hungry so you know what it feels like to be poor is about as enlightened as shooting yourself to see what war feels like.
nova | Homepage | 01.22.09 - 4:02 pm | #
hahaha. yes. I would never wish poverty on anyone having had my own experiences with severe poverty.
I feel it is an asset now though.
I am not that afraid of what is going to transpire because:
1) I am preparing / have prepared.
2) I have already experienced some very dire circumstances.
3) Death is inevitable. When the time comes - that is it.
4) Because of 3) - there is no reason to live in misery. I am still alive and I can do something to better myself and those around me.
I'm as paranoid about my privacy as you probably are. I'm just curious, for some reason I'm drawn to disaster history in the past few years, "Mao The Untold Story" "Court of the Red Tsar" "Under the Loving Care"... something about totalitarian culture which I find interesting.
i'm calling BS, i think a certain few know with reasonable certainty what would be the least painful way out of the mess, but it is political suicide to administer the treatment because of the extremely high chance you won't get re-elected. also, i think that the least painful way out involves an initially much deeper but relatively shorter downturn and IMO the politcal class prefer a shallower, longer downturn where they aren't responsible for a cliff dive....even though that dive may be followed by a modest recovery. but i'm drunk right now, so what do I know.
I can read, mp. Fact is, I think you're probably right; I just don't see Buffett's inability to formulate the problem (or to formulate much of anything, if this interview is typical) as evidence that no one on Obama's team has.
My guess, though, is that no one has been able to formulate the problem because they're inherently, systematically, incapable of grasping it. Fundamentally as I see it, the problem is one of inadequate aggregate demand brought about by an overconcentration of wealth. But every single member of Obama's team is in that small subclass where the wealth has been overconcentrated. They've all got a quarter of a century invested in this project of smashing labor's ability to negotiate a decent wage. Recognition of the problem would be akin to a conversion experience; they won't do so until (1) there is divine intervention or (2) they are no longer in the subclass within which wealth has been overconcentrated, whichever comes first.
To do that, why not just have the government insure the toxic securities? The government could do a discounted cash flow analysis and decide how much of each security it would insure against default. And charge a premium to boot. The bank would only write off the uninsured portion. For example, if a security is worth 75 cents on the dollar based on cash flow, the bank would write off 25 cents and the government would insure the remainder, 75 cents, against default.
Gov could use the $350 billion TARP to capitalize the government insurance company.
This is a deep thought. Don't discount it. Yes, my house has lost $600k from the peak. Yes, we are entering a long, deep recesson or a short shallow depression dependin upon your perspective. Doesn't matter. Half our economy won't even notice. Some yachts and some turboprops will still sell. Some luxocondos and some ski chalets will still change hands. I'll be buying that 2004 V70 2.5T for less than $8000. Unless you are planning on living forever there's a bunch of things that simply aren't worth putting off.
My point is simple: Every billionaire has gotten crushed unless they are one of the select few who are almost exclusively focused/invested on an area of the economy that has not gotten hit. Waltons are a good example.
Bernanke is an 'expert' on Depression, so what?
Next time let's elect an expert on earthquakes to be our President, I am sure all earthquakes will suddenly stop happening.
we can't stop what's coming to our economy. We can just play with the redistribution of pain, which is an entirely different problem, and one nobody has looked at.
Just-in-time practices made it to the agricultural sector as well?
ille_vir | 01.22.09 - 3:58 pm
It's always been JIT. It's less so now with all the genetic modifications and parafin coatings.
The difference in the famine my friend describes is that it's based on supply, not politics or war. There was lots of food during the Irish famine, the world wars, right up to the African famines of this era. It wasn't available to the hungry, however.
"HOW CAN YOU HAVE A PLAN WHEN NO ONE KNOWS WHAT THE PROBLEM IS?"
"Have a nice day."
Don't believe that crafty old bastard for a second. He wants you to be afraid. The people who make money and wield the most power are the ones who feed us the greed and fear. They manufacture it and distribute it.
If he was for real, he would not have said this. It's irresponsible to throw more fuel on the fire. He's part of the problem and one of its creators.
I was utterly befuddled by the credit mania of this decade, and failed to take advantage of it (e.g., becoming a flipper).
As I tell folks, the best thing that happened to me was that I lost my job.
When I got this job, I was more cautious financially. Then, I was able to see that home prices here in SoCal were nuts (this was late '04). Seeing the housing bubble led me to see the credit bubble, which led me to gold and shorting the market.
So, yes, my setback (unemployment) strengthened and awakened and alerted me, and I am grateful that I recovered from my setback.
We can just play with the redistribution of pain, which is an entirely different problem, and one nobody has looked at.
Missing Bag | 01.22.09 - 4:36 pm | #
On the contrary, that is the only problem anybody has looked at. Every public discussion of "saving the economy" has, in fact, been a discussion of how to save creditors from pain, reframed for obvious political reasons, but if you look at the possibilities vetted and the decisions reached it's pretty clear what the goal was.
I had the sense Buffett wasn't showing any cards at all.
I did really hate to read "I don't think the worry right now should be about the next one . . ." If there were any real competence at work in DC today, that would have to be an overtly false statement.
Thanks for sharing your experiences. What you describe in your experience lead me to that line of reasoning.
Also, I am comparing how my wife is reacting to the news and data vs how I react to it.
She tends to temper my pessimism because she has never really experienced setbacks.
I temper her optimism because of the numerous difficulties I have faced.
I want to internalize this sense of balance.
Not sure if my hypothesis will lead to anything other than just a tool for me to shape my perception and my reactions.
Denninger published a simple, concise, 3 point plan to fix this mess a few days ago. Problem is it won't happen because it basically defangs the Fed and the banking cartel
So what are the chances that O will push for nationalizing the banks when his supporter/friend Buffet has so much skin in the game? I'm not feeling too good about this. I will be buying more chickens in the spring as well.
Re: Hadassah hospital: That's over many years and they lost all their principal. Whether anyone can claw back the difference between what they took out, what they lost, and an average rate of return for an ordinary institutional investor is very unlikely. If you sell your BRK and it turns out to have been a sophisticated Ponzi/insurance scheme all the way, you will be OK.
The problem, at least to me, is the definition of "fixing America's economy." It seems to far too many people, a "fixed" economy consists of peopling being buried under debt as their jobs vanish overseas until we achieve a "perfect economy" consisting of nothing but scams, house-flipping, and buying crud we can't afford, don't need, and don't produce.
If that is the "normal" they want us to return to, count me out!
Does anyone here entertain the possibility that those who preach non stop doom might also be talking their book and trying to line their pockets preaching an unbalanced vision of the future?
Someone in another thread a while back gave the best retort, IMO.
"See Timmy!! I told you if you kept playing with matches you'd burn our house down!! SEE!!
Oh, what about my stuff... and where will we sleep tonight???"
I think most D&G'ers are sanguine enough to realize when this sucker goes down, they won't just skate away unscathed, and being right will bring little recompense.
Good Summary, Yalt. i too think that overconcentration of wealth is the problem. But the system can still limp along without a correction in wealth distribution, as long as people still believe in it. Once the majority stops believing... Watch out.
But for now, it looks as if people still believe that our current arrangement will work.
Did you grow up on Souther food? xxxxx | 01.22.09 - 6:03 pm | #
Nope. Bad choice of ancestors. Good news, most everything we know about heart disease is advanced with my problems. I'm a third generation cohort in the Framingham Heart Study where may grand parents were single digit participants.
BUY BUY BUY!
UP GOES FRAZIER!
I did buy today.
5 pounds dried beans & lentils
10 pounds white rice
bouillon cubes
6 packs of ramen
10 cans vegetables
It's a start.
Obama's stimulus will come much too late.
Bill May Not Stimulate Jobs Right Away
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projected less than half of the $355 billion that House Democrats want to spend on highways, bridges and other job-creating investments is likely to be used before the end of fiscal 2010.
and too little.
I always knew Warren was a commie-pinko symp.
U.K. Pound Serves as Omen for Dollar
U.K. Pound Serves as Omen for Dollar - WSJ.com
While the dollar continues to benefit from its unique position in financial markets for now, it is far from clear that the resilience will last. "Right now the market is beating up on the pound, but at some point it will look for something else to pick on," says Paul Mackel, a currency strategist at HSBC in London.
The fact that the Federal Reserve stands ready to use a host of unconventional measures to flood the economy with liquidity in an effort to stimulate growth "could hurt the dollar quite badly" later this year, he says.
Top tax rates must be raised to what they were during Ike's presidency--91%.
I was telling him business was going to be awful during the election period and that we were coming up in November to a terrible economic scene which would be even worse probably when he got inaugurated. So far Ive been either lucky or right on that.
...
We have a business slowdown particularly after October 1st it was sort of on a glide path downward up til roughly October 1st and then it went into a real nosedive.
But October 17 is when he wrote an op-ed for the peons telling them to buy stocks:
OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR; Buy American. I Am. - NY Times
Not necessarily contradictory, I guess, but...
Here comes Kermit!!!!!!
Squatters take over seven-storey Park Lane houses worth £30million
Squatters take over seven-storey Park Lane houses worth £30million - Telegraph
Bandos of the world UNITE!
Nostrovia,
Buffett is advocating ALL IN, how can we double down after we go all in?
Comrade Misean, I wonder how many of these empty palaces, estates, and titanic CRE projects can afford security anymore?
As for Buffet, why is the credit system so key? Isn't that "financial system" history now? The one that involved kingly investment banks and a 70% consumer economy?
Who cares?
It's troubling that Mr. Buffett didn't reflect on the moral abyss at the source of this loss of confidence.
No salvation without repentance, no rebirth without epiphany, no eternal wealth for those devoid of wisdom.
"The ascent has been broad-based with no clear catalyst driving the move."
New PPT now manning "buy" terminals in bunker under white house!!!
o matter what govts around the world may or not do, FatherTime is the cure - probably 2-3yrs from now the endurance event will begin to change to what we expect a recovery to look like, and ofcourse there'll be N false dawns between now and then, and when the real dawn arrives, there'll be unbelievers til noon....
so it goes
Warren took a few minutes at the end of the interview to pitch viewers on GE refrigerators, Wells Fargo home equity loans, and Goldman hedge funds.
SG: Whats the most important thing you think he needs to fix?
WB: Well the most important thing to fix right now is the economy.
The car is broke so lets fix the car. How? By throwing EVERY tool in the toolbox at it. Tire iron the to windshield coming. Real men of genius at work.
Sue,
My best guess is many and rising.
On topic...
WB will be dead before long...what the hell does he care.
Nostrovia,
Warren is one of the main players that will have to come clean with god bank, bad bank, and his reinsurance and offshore trash that is Level lll will have to be disclosed for being the shit it is. The faster we get rid of these types of symbolic shills the better off America will be; how the F do you think this pirate got his billions, by being honest?
One of Buffet's other investment credos is if you can't stomach watching your equity portfolio drop 50%, then you shouldn't be in equities at all. His perspective is always very long term. I think most of the easy money has been made from the short side at this point. That being said, with a Fed balance sheet of $4T and a $2T budget deficit coming up, I think I'll be able to spend most of the rest of my career as a fixed income trader short treasuries.
What I want him to tell us is what he is doing, if anything, with his positions in WFC, in USB and STI.
SG: But are we creating new problems?
WB: Always
SG: But there is debate about whether there should be fiscal stimulus, whether tax cuts work or not. What do you think?
WB: The answer is nobody knows. The economists dont know.
This sums it all up quite well.....
the worlds greatest minds are advising they have no clue at all so the govt throws everything hoping something sticks and understanding that it is so bad, it is worth potentially creating a bigger problem...
Isnt that kinda what Bush did regarding Iraq and Terrorism in General?????
Mr. Buffett is a dinosaur, who has not seen a depression.
BRK has gone nowhere in four years. In those four years, based on my correct read of the new economic age we are in, my portfolio went from X to 4.5X.
The blind leading the inexperienced.
Lovely.
I thought Warren Buffet committed suicide.
"In addition to hosting luxury homes and hotels, Park Lane is one of the most valuable destinations on the Monopoly game board, alongside Mayfair."
Huh?
I wonder how WB is feeling about his Goldman acquisition? He sounds like such a Pollyanna....but what is he going to say, his BerkH. is full of stocks in DOW companies.....
"So youve got the right person in the operating room, but it doesnt mean the patient is going to leave the hospital tomorrow."
The patient is currently in ICU on a respirator. No brain function showing on the monitor.
Leave the hospital? I'm starting to doubt the patient will live.
Back in the day, 79 AD, Rome was able to completely trash the currency, via debasement, without suffering major military reverses....
Domestic spending was the cause.
Bread and Circuses got too expensive.
BONDS! Should have shorted...
Isnt that kinda what Bush did regarding Iraq and Terrorism in General?????
stay classy San Diego | 01.22.09 - 2:35 pm | #
Not quite. Bush knew very well what was happening on the ground in Iraq but clearly didn't want the public to know. The worst of all worlds and nothing innocent about it!
OT: New Yorker magazine profiles Jim Kunstler, Nassim Taleb, and even references one Jaswant Jain. Doom goes mainstream!
Nice post-confirmation pump by TaxFree Timmy's boys.
Your days are numbered, schmucks.
When riots in Britain start, riots in America will follow.
'Halloween in Detroit' coming to a neighborhood near you this summer/fall.
"In addition to hosting luxury homes and hotels, Park Lane is one of the most valuable destinations on the Monopoly game board, alongside Mayfair."
Huh?
Peasant Darkness | 01.22.09 - 2:38 pm |
The British version of Monopoly.
Railfax Report - North American Rail Freight Traffic Carloading Report
From the start of 4q 2008 until now the total US rail loaded units dropped by about 150,000. Looks like a 27% drop in 3 months. All their charts are showing a slight upturn this week.
Interesting. I wonder if the US port number have started to pick up.
I do not know if it is a bottom but I am curious why rail traffic would pickup rather than continue its steep descent. It can't be just coal being moved...
Just got back from shopping at WalMart. The store had been re-arranged since I was there a few months ago:
*Canned Food aisle had shrunk from a whole aisle to 1/3 of an aisle.
*No fresh seafood counter anymore.
*OTC drug area larger.
*Clothing areas smaller,fat women's clothes area shrunk significantly. Many clothes on clearance for $1 to $2.
*Shoe area same size but tall shelves has been totally removed and replaced with very short shelves. Only about 1/4 the amount of previous inventory.
*Less toys, no bicycles to the ceiling.
*Craft section totally gone.
I felt as if I needed a tin-foil hat to be in the place, as it seemed WalMart was preparing for the coming depression / less available Chinese imports in a big way.
Another cheery note: The GA unemployment rate is now 8.1%, the highest in 25 years, and double the rate of 1 year ago.
It made me keep
I was a huge Buffett fan until this year.
I lost all respect for the man after his disgusting moves to profit from the TARP.
What a waste.
Obama really understands economics?
Really?
From his days working the desk on Wall Street, or from working as a community organizer in Chicago?
And the government is going to throw everything at the problem, which is 'fixing the economy'??!!??
With leadership and insight like this, we are well and truly screwed.
Here comes Kermit!!!!!!
Eric | 01.22.09 - 2:24 pm | #
Eric - What is the kermit story?
Obama's stimulus will come much too late.
Speed | 01.22.09 - 2:21 pm | #
You calling a bottom?
Mr. Buffett is a dinosaur, who has not seen a depression.
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) | 01.22.09 - 2:36 pm | #
C'mon, you must think he's an idiot. You've never seen a depression. He may be wrong, but it would be for logical reasons.
Buffett = has bee
Sure O- understands economics.
He got a good deal from Rezko.
His wife got a good deal from the Univ. of Chicago ($400K per year as V.P. of Diversity for the hospital system).
Of course O- understands economics, and he has a Chicago bent.
Unfortunately, it is a Chicago-mob bent.
"We do know over time the American machine works wonderfully and it will work wonderfully again."
Just a bunch of gung-ho talk. It was easy to be "the machine" when the rest of world was in ruins or under communism after the WWII and all the educated ex-nazi engineers and other scientists from ruined Europe happily migrated to the land of Disneyland.
Nowadays venture capitalists set up promising startup firms just as easily or even easier in Germany, Sweden, Russia, Thailand, China or India than in the USA.
Buffett is being buffeted.
Expect his GS to tail in.
GS is in, has been doing, the same stuff as the rest of Wall Street.
Groupthink ran wild.
It's pronounced Boofay. In Germany it's pronounced doughnut.
He did mention MACHINE once....
If we have no jobs(we pay no tax's.)
If we import everything we need(with no jobs we pay no tax's.)
If we outsource our data(we have no jobs and we pay no tax's.)
If we run this Country on his advise, big business will corrupt more and be helt less responsible.
I wonder if throwing everything at the problem means my little line item to give ME $1B will slip under the radar screen. That would be suhweet.
Just saying...
It may not be right, but it would be fun.
Nostrovia,
So.
Question.
If the stimulus bill passes.
What do you guys/gals think would be a good buy in the broadband space?
Buffett is blinded by his past success and experience, sdtfs. That is my read.
He is highly intelligent. But, he has not taken the time to read the data, or ignores it.
Looking at household debt to GDP in '22, '29, '39, '81, and '07 should disabuse anyone of any ideas that this economy is turning around anytime soon.
But, hey, I will continue to take candy from children with my long-term 'short the market' and gold bets.
I have never seen a depression; I'm only in my forties.
But, I have read lots of books from that time, and the lead up to it, and I 'see' it and the parallels to today very clearly, sdtfs.
"even references one Jaswant Jain"
Is he quoted as calling Eustace Tilly a born and bred American dope?
I'm impressed with the questions by Ms Gharib. Good questions and good follow-up. Brought out Buffet's essential incoherence.
A good interview is a rarity these days.
Ticker Tape of Doom,
"What do you guys/gals think would be a good buy in the broadband space?"
I'd recommend a lapband. Broadband is going to be that was oh so "that time when we had food other than Moose and Squirrel"...IMHO.
Nostrovia,
Even Jesse Livermore slipped up.
Why should WB be god?
Final score of todays game will be -260 DOW
I do not know if it is a bottom but I am curious why rail traffic would pickup rather than continue its steep descent. It can't be just coal being moved...
nova | Homepage | 01.22.09 - 2:42 pm | #
Seasonal - there are two big selling seasons (1) Christmas and (2) Spring lawn & garden... #1>>#2 but #2 is still much bigger than the rest of the months (baseline). We are entering the Spring selling season in Feb-Mar. The question to ask is this blip in transport bigger than typical. I can't answer that. Just talked to a buddy on the phone & he just left a big lawn & garden mfger in the SE USA - said they were going 'BTTW'.
Comrade Misean | Homepage | 01.22.09 - 2:25 pm | #
Squatters take over seven-storey Park Lane houses worth £30million
Squatting is not illegal if entry is not forced and no criminal damage is caused to the premises.
I am curious if thats the law in the UK.
Comrade fetal alcohol sydrome jg (jg) compares himself (favorably!) to Warren Buffet.
Ahh, the lack of self awareness is priceless in you wingnuts.
stay classy San Diego said: "...the worlds greatest minds are advising they have no clue at all so the govt throws everything hoping something sticks and understanding that it is so bad, it is worth potentially creating a bigger problem..."
A couple of points. One, the "greatest minds" advising the government aren't the only minds working on the problem(s), the only minds capable of doing something constructive. There seems to be a widespread assumption that our economy will live or die based on what the Federal government does and it's just not true. Our economy will live or die based on our actions. A trillion dollars for a bailout is a lot, but we've got a $13 trillion+ per year economy, and we generate most of it.
Second, I think the actions taken so far (and the ones likely to follow) will have a predictably positive effect on both the stock market and the economy. But the question that even the "greatest minds" are likely to have a hard time answering is "When?"
FWIW, my answer: Things will start looking better during Q2 of this year.
Sebastia
"I am curious if thats the law in the UK."
Calling Mr. Barley....Question on aisle four please.
Nostrovia,
hey Dryfly: BTTW?
Eric - What is the kermit story?
Vic | 01.22.09 - 2:43 pm | #
Apparently he decided to stay backstage with Miss Piggy until later this afternoon.
It's a joke on Mr. Market turning green.
It can't be just coal being moved...
nova | Homepage | 01.22.09 - 2:42 pm | #
I dunno, Nova - there's a lot of electricity being generated right now. It's cold, and there's quite a number of homes reliant on electricity for heating.
I understand your point though.
Gary, I am your mental and financial superior. Watch your tone, please.
"FWIW, my answer: Things will start looking better during Q2 of this year."-Sebastian
Uh based on your record, I would say that statement is worthless.
BTW- his mentor B. Graham wrote his book on investing because of the depression, and not during any of the funny money eras. When Buffet folded his first company, it was because he didn't understand the machinations. I'll agree he might be deluded, but I'd trust his judgement over most others.
Jesse Livermore was a trader, Buffett used to be a value investor, don't know if that's still true. Which should give the current crop of traders pause for thought.
P.S. Gary you seem to be in a bad mood today, just sayin'.
hey Dryfly: BTTW?
matty | 01.22.09 - 2:56 pm | #
'balls to the wall' - flat out full steam ahead.
Seb,
"FWIW, my answer: Things will start looking better during Q2 of this year."
Planning on tapping the Everclear in the Q2, Seb? That stuff makes coyote ugly "not too bad" for a short time anyway. Or so I've heard.
Nostrovia,
Uh based on your record, I would say that statement is worthless.
Omen | 01.22.09 - 2:57 pm | #
It's never worthless.... you're free to fade his picks, if you want.
Here comes Kermit!!!!!!
Eric
If I see that goddamn green frog, I will kill and eat him
Buffett is advocating ALL IN, how can we double down after we go all in?
leverage my friend, leverage
Dryfly: thank you, sir!
Comrade Misean is Dope writes:
Ticker Tape of Doom,
"What do you guys/gals think would be a good buy in the broadband space?"
I'd recommend a lapband. Broadband is going to be that was oh so "that time when we had food other than Moose and Squirrel"...IMHO.
Nostrovia,
I hear ya Misean.
I am biased towards the dark side.(as evidenced by the handle my wife gave me)
However - I don't believe starvation will be a major problem in the US unless there is another major drought( like the dust bowl in GD1) in the breadbasket.
There are probably some opportunities here for those who have a little play money?
What are some good companies that are a value in that market?
The answer is nobody knows. The economists dont know. All you know is you throw everything at it...
This statement doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
It only makes sense it you believe that things are so bad that the economy is going to collapse anyhow, so you don't need to worry about potentially making it worse.
Maybe that's what Buffet believes.
Top tax rates must be raised to what they were during Ike's presidency--91%.
Mel | 01.22.09 - 2:23 pm | #
No, Art Laffer's curve is both true and trivial, yes there are 2 rates at which the govt will get 0 revenues, 0% and 100%. It therefore follows that there are at least 2 rates that will get to any other given level of revenues, except for the revenue maximization point. Given the choice, always go for the lower of the 2 points, but now we need to find the revenue maximization point. I am pretty sure it is higher than the current levels, that can be seen from Clinton raising it to 39% and revenues rising sharply, and by Bush cutting it to 35% and producing monster deficits, even durring the "Bush boom" (as anemic as it was). My gut tells me the revenue max point is around 50%, but I have not seen any emperical data on it.
Funny, I remember way back in 1999 and 2000 when a number of commentaries of how Buffet was a dinosaur who didn't get the new economy were written. Hmmm, seems he saw that it was a sham afterall. With government composing 40% of gdp and expanding, and the Fed cornering the market for ink to keep the printing presses humming, I don't think a repeat of the 1930's deflationary depression is likely. 1965-182 is a better template to me, and we're currently at 2009 = 1974. The 1970's were a pretty depressing decade, unless you really liked disco that is.
Cut Seb some slack - Q2 will look better than Q1... it's a given. Winter will have passed an it will be Spring and love will be in the air... depressions are always better when it is warm and sunny and you are in love. Nothing worse than lonely cold as a witches tit depression.
Seb! nice to hear from you...we will be checking your prediction come Q2...
Lol Eric, I've been lurking here for years and I promise Sebastian is the king of clueless.
TToD,
"What are some good companies that are a value in that market?"
With the uneven and volatile way the economy is crumbling...there's really no way to know. Short term, buy whatever the id ten t's in Warshington shovel money at. Longer than that...dunno. Just staying liquid and agile for the moment.
Nostrovia,
If I see that goddamn green frog, I will kill and eat him
Anonymous | 01.22.09 - 2:59 pm | #
Mmmm... frog!
Top tax rates must be raised to what they were during Ike's presidency--91%.
Mel | 01.22.09 - 2:23 pm | #
Excellent idea. Now that parasites have looted our economy, let's make sure there's no incentive for new efforts at generating actual value. Important to keep competition away from the wealthy.
BTW, most people confuse high-income (trying to be rich) with large-assets (already rich.) The wealthy establishment love to see high-income-earners referred to as rich, because the remedies then penalize the aspirants.
Cut Seb some slack - Q2 will look better than Q1... it's a given. Winter will have passed an it will be Spring and love will be in the air... depressions are always better when it is warm and sunny and you are in love. Nothing worse than lonely cold as a witches tit depression.
dryfly | 01.22.09 - 3:02 pm | #
I'd almost believe that (yes, I saw your smiley), except that in the Spring, we're going to dance another round of earnings, and after everyone said this quarter was absolutely positively the MOTHER OF ALL KITCHEN SINKS, what do they do for encore spin?
ac,
"Maybe that's what Buffet believes."
As I wrote...he'll be dead soon anyway.
Nostrovia,
We'll see, Turbo!
I feel comfortable with my 'doom and gloom' bets.
But, hey, a difference of opinion makes a market!
No, Art Laffer's curve is both true and trivial, yes there are 2 rates at which the govt will get 0 revenues, 0% and 100%. It therefore follows that there are at least 2 rates that will get to any other given level of revenues, except for the revenue maximization point. Given the choice, always go for the lower of the 2 points, but now we need to find the revenue maximization point. I am pretty sure it is higher than the current levels, that can be seen from Clinton raising it to 39% and revenues rising sharply, and by Bush cutting it to 35% and producing monster deficits, even durring the "Bush boom" (as anemic as it was). My gut tells me the revenue max point is around 50%, but I have not seen any emperical data on it.
Dirk van Dijk | 01.22.09 - 3:01 pm | #
That is the Laffer we don't hear on MSM or from Sean Rush Larry & company...
Lol Eric, I've been lurking here for years and I promise Sebastian is the king of clueless.
Omen | 01.22.09 - 3:03 pm | #
My point was, if you believe that, his predictions aren't worthless, you can fade them and make money.
AND THEY'RE OFF.....
I think Buffett knows exactly what's going on. He's deliberately cheerleading in try to buck up confidence. He's not going to get on national TV and say "Run for the hills! Stock up on ammunition! There will be riots, breakdown of civil order!" That certainly would make things worse, especially for his own portfolio, which is pretty heavy on "unnecessary" retail, last time I looked. The same goes for all the talking heads, really.
The EOTWAWKI will not be televised.
I'd almost believe that (yes, I saw your smiley), except that in the Spring, we're going to dance another round of earnings, and after everyone said this quarter was absolutely positively the MOTHER OF ALL KITCHEN SINKS, what do they do for encore spin?
Eric | 01.22.09 - 3:04 pm | #
That was as depressing as a backyard full of Springtime thawing dog poop...
what was the vote on the AMT in Franks committee?
He's deliberately cheerleading in try to buck up confidence.
scone | 01.22.09 - 3:07 pm | #
In other words, talking his book. He did write a shitload of at-the-money puts about 30% ago.......
"If" I believe that? His cluelessness is a fact of life.
@ Misean.
Thanks for your answer. I am staying liquid now for the most part.
Just closed out my TBT position. ( got in early when every one said it was crazy to short bonds). Getting out to take a small gain.
I am now doing some research for the Poom after the Ka.
@Ticker Tape of Doom: Transmeta is one of the stocks I keep seeing on the new 52-week highs list. No clue what that means (I ain't buying in this market climate), but might be worth an inquiry if you're looking for a tech play. Personally I figure the sinking tide isn't going to leave many boats afloat and I'd rather play odds that are more in my favor.
In a printing press economy you need to stay close to the trough, and pig in.
Study up on Federal contractors...
Their costs are dropping away, yet collecting payment is unimpaired.
"AND THEY'RE OFF....."
"Ah no, they're not.
No they didn't realize they were supposed to start.
Never mind, we'll soon sort that out, the judge is explaining it to them now.
I think Nigel and Gervaise have got the idea.
All set to go."
Nostrovia,
Buffett is either a dinosaur taking up his epoch or or a mammoth inviting you to join him in the tar pits.
The Jas Jain reference in The New Yorker
Ben McGrath, American Chronicles, The Dystopians, The New Yorker, January 26, 2009, p. 41
Until recently, Orlov identified the readers of his book, and of a blog he maintains, Club Orlov, as belonging to one of three basic cultural categories: back-to-the-land types, peak oilers, and all-around Cassandras, or doomers. But in the past few months, he has acquired a fourth audience, composed of financial professionals, who have been bolstering his gut feeling that the United States is bankrupt. One of Orlovs greatest fans is the author James Howard Kunstler, who also writes a weekly blog column. His latest contribution to the doomersphere is the novel World Made by Hand, set in the post-collapse future.
....
Jim Sinclair, a currency and commodities trader, is the king of goldbugs, an intermediate class of doomer. He posts daily commentary on his Web site, jsmineset.com. Mentions Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of the best-selling book The Black Swan, about the inevitability of unforeseeable events. Three days after the Presidential election, Kunstler addressed the audience at a Vermont Independence Convention, sponsored by the pro-secessionist group Second Vermont Republic. Mentions Gerald Celente, Kirkpatrick Sale, Chellis Glendinning, Lynette Clark, Rob Williams, Thomas Naylor, and Dennis Steele.
Read the full text of this article. (Registration required.)
Assume Jas is in the full text article
Buffett knows that 'earning' money for insuring garbage isn't so easy unless we have excess credit.
Democrats say...Stimulate!!...tax cuts now and infrastructure projects over next 18 months.
Repubs say...If we stimulate...more tax cuts now and less spending.
Dem translation: since 50% of people don't pay Fed taxes, we must limit tax cuts or the wrong people might get them. If we stretch out the projects long enuf, we can grease our re election in 2012.
Rep translation: If you won't spend more on tax cuts, we'll hang you in the midterms on socialist redistribution and pork barrel schemes.
Who says we have no leadership?
WB -"So you dont want to get into Superman-type expectations."
excuse me but who the heck did you think we all voted for
Anyone read the book about him, the most recent said he's a big cry baby.
A real pussy that can't do anything for himself domestic, and has to have a live in/lover friend, provided by his first wife who had left him.
Sorry if I ruined everyone's afternoon tea.
""Maybe that's what Buffet believes."
As I wrote...he'll be dead soon anyway.
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope"
You might be sleeping with the fishes, too, if you continue to play craps in Vegas. Remember, it is craps, not yippees.
Gary
i often agree with your opinions
but
must say comrade jg has a point
may i suggest we disagree without being disagreeable
My theory for the last 6 months or so is this- the market will bottom the month Berkshire Hathaway is forced to restate it's earnings for the last decade. The roaches are everywhere.
thanks wisdom speaker.
this is probably why their stock price hit some highs:
Transmeta Corporation Agrees to Be Acquired by Novafora, Inc.
Error Occurred While Processing Request
Ticker Tape Doom - I see now you're researching for the next wave. I'm interested in that question as well, but have to get back from "lunch" now...
"A real pussy that can't do anything for himself domestic, and has to have a live in/lover friend, provided by his first wife who had left him."
Yes he only made more money than anyone else in the world (at one point by simply investing). He really sucks. That WB is a sham. All luck.
"Asun writes:
Buffett is advocating ALL IN, how can we double down after we go all in?"
Just use a portion of your $400K bonus, Asun. That's what I'm going to do.
Double-down, Mikey!
Nice analogies, R-D-.
Me, I vote 'tar pit.
I used Monday's blowoff to get about as long equities as I'm comfortable with. For me that means, going from the near zero allocation I've had since 2006, to about 50%. The other 50% is tips and short-term cd's, since I think the next debacle in waiting is the bond market. I think Q2 will be better than Q1, and the economy will surprise a little to the upside in H2. It will be a false dawn though, once inflation starts to ramp up in 2010. In the meantime though, there might be some money to be made in very selective portfolio of low-leverage companies. And, if I'm wrong, I'm actually pretty handy with a shot gun, and money is pretty meaningless in a complete societal breakdown anyway.
"American machine works wonderfully"?
Wasn't it just early this morning we were talking about this big complicated wonderous machine?
Did he mean to say it works wonderfully... ...for him?
CR: "There is much more."...
Doesn't sound like it.
In other words, talking his book. He did write a shitload of at-the-money puts about 30% ago.......
Eric | 01.22.09 - 3:09 pm | #
Exactly. I'll listen to anyone, but I have no reverence for this guy. Past results are not indicative of future performance (see Bill Miller). I got zero from the content of the interview.
And this is the blog referred to in the New Yorker article on Doomers /Dystopians.
ClubOrlov
And, if I'm wrong, I'm actually pretty handy with a shot gun, and money is pretty meaningless in a complete societal breakdown anyway.
Turbo | 01.22.09 - 3:14 pm | #
That has been my investment strategy since about 1998...
There's an interesting fear based concern about Buffett's major holdings in the current deflationary recession. Insurance is not profitable when reinvestment is negative, insurable assets are shrinking, renewals are dropping and people no longer have equity in assets worth insuring.
"In the meantime though, there might be some money to be made in very selective portfolio of low-leverage companies."
Yes, although many have the same thinking, so those select companies might not be such good pickings anymore.
Yep. doing research for the next wave.
have a pleasant lunch wisdom speaker.
Buffet is guilty of pretending to be a populist and not using his position to force change in the financial markets. His position regarding the TARP and bank reform is more of the same.
He's part of the problem and is simply a wolf in sheep's clothing.
It would have been better if John "The fundamentals of our economy are strong" McCain had been elected instead. He would have dropped dead in short order which would have put the low functioning borderline retard Palin in power. That would have been awesome! "Jesus will save the banks, you betcha!!!"
In any case it is clear what the answer is: the key to fixing the economy is giving the randian psychopaths who fucked everything up in the first placed another kick at the can. They can finish the job they started with that deranged halfwit Ronnie Raygun.
Buffet has been hitting up the peyote.
Ex. Muni Bond insurance fiasco.
Thanks for inflating my post, Dawg.
and now to my friend..comrade jg
much of what you said above is worth considering
but im put out , like gary, with one of your comments
you have no reason that i am aware of, to say that obama is influenced or connected with chicago mob...re economics or otherwise
as for rezco... yeah obama got a sweet deal on the purchase of one parcel of land
show me decisions obama made that constitute a payback and ill cry foul along with you
Does anyone here entertain the possibility that those who preach non stop doom might also be talking their book and trying to line their pockets preaching an unbalanced vision of the future?
In the meantime though, there might be some money to be made in very selective portfolio of low-leverage companies.
Turbo | 01.22.09 - 3:14 pm | #
I believe Warren himself said much the same and promptly bought $5b of GS @ $125.
\tDoes anyone here entertain the possibility that those who preach non stop doom might also be talking their book and trying to line their pockets preaching an unbalanced vision of the future?
Ticker Tape of Doom | 01.22.09 - 3:20 pm | #
Does anyone assume that they're NOT talking their book? If you believe something, you act on that info.
Oy... Laffer curve. I think the question of "is it valid" misses the point. The question really should be, "Which side of the curve are we on?"
People of a certain persuasion will love to tell you that we are on the right side of it, in spite of considerable apparent evidence to the contrary.
For a fun read, check out Fafblog's Supply Side Santa. Truly a classic.
Too harsh.
Buffet and Gates charity work is more than enough to forgive them any transgressions committed in making money and creating jobs.
Keep waiting for one of the highly visible billionares to come out and call BS. Mark Cuban did it and received an SEC inspired indictment. What if a few of them banded together and suggested a plan? Who wouldn't pay attention?
Quick lesson for anyone else considering doing the same?
Thanks for inflating my post, Dawg.
Anonymous | 01.22.09 - 3:19 pm | #
Read it. Didn't know who to credit for the first. There's a reason Anon isn't a revered handle.
Does anyone assume that they're NOT talking their book? If you believe something, you act on that info.
JP | Homepage | 01.22.09 - 3:21 pm | #
true.
It's investor not inwestor.
Not sure if my co-workers (edumacated librarian/proff types) are hip to the finer points of econotrauma, but I am swamped with orders for eggs.
I only have 9 hens right now, and every egg they lay is now spoken for. I charge $2.50/dz, which is way less than most organic free-range, but enough to make it worth my trouble.
At this rate, they'll pay for the next batch of chicks I'm ordering this weekend. Too bad it takes 5 months til they lay, but with the bigger flock I can take bulk orders from local stores.
I can also sell the adult hens for $25 each....
Whocoodanode laying hens would be so profitable?!
OT but interesting. NYTimes just published that an illegal housekeeper and tax issues derailed Caroiine Kennedy's bid to become NY senator.
More problems with TurboTax?
"ALBANY Problems involving taxes and a household employee surfaced during the vetting of Caroline Kennedy and derailed her candidacy for the Senate, a person close to Gov. David A. Paterson said on Thursday, in an account at odds with Ms. Kennedys own description of her reasons for withdrawing."
"We do know over time the American machine works wonderfully and it will work wonderfully again."
Love,
Ford Pinto
Does anyone here entertain the possibility that those who preach non stop doom might also be talking their book and trying to line their pockets preaching an unbalanced vision of the future?
Ticker Tape of Doom | 01.22.09 - 3:20
These fine folks wouldn't do that, would they? You remember the night Congress voted no for an auto bailout? Armageddon was here.
he just left a big lawn & garden mfger in the SE USA - said they were going 'BTTW'.
A rise in gardening?
I guess the world will know it 2 months or so
i'm an inwestor!
Omen said: "Lol Eric, I've been lurking here for years and I promise Sebastian is the king of clueless."
You might consider the possibility that I'm teachable and not anxious to be publicly humiliated again as I was by my past mistakes.
Sebastia
Buffet is doing a fine job holding onto his billions.
Snigger. BRK.A $150k (high) to $88k in the last 13 months. Either he's lost nearly half his billions or he is dishonestly misleading his investors by doing something contrary to his stated investment policies. I'm open to either, or both.
m-t-, the south side of Chicago is a very 'interesting' place.
I have no evidence of any unfair dealing.
But, sweetheart deals with a now convicted felon are not reassuring.
I pray for wisdom for O- and for him to make the right choices.
But, his choice of Geithner is not reassuring, either.
Me, I will rely upon my wits and weapons.
r-t-o: millions, sir.
Joanna
You and Black Star Ranch are the people I want to go with when we are called to the house in the cornfield.
You know the one with the old black women who help us...
@Rob Dawg - wasn't there considerable speculation about Warren B causing GS some headaches because they had to front collateral for his long-term short puts on SPX? I'm not sure this was ever confirmed but for someone that claims to think derivatives are awful things...
Buffett thought that 'earning' from unproductive 'industries' was easier than earning from production, until lately when credit disappeared.
In previous discussions about Buffett, I've challenged this: "Name the billionaires who haven't lost 40% of their wealth in the last year." Please tell me.
BRK lost 32% in 2008. Without TARP, the FED's record lending, and the Buffet cult effect, would it have been 60%?
Gates had better give to charity, the dirty monopolist. Linus Torvalds gave more to the world.
Meredith on with Maria.
Insurance is not profitable when reinvestment is negative, insurable assets are shrinking, renewals are dropping and people no longer have equity in assets worth insuring.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.22.09 - 3:16 pm | #
Not to mention the coming flood of shareholder lawsuits. Somebody's writing liability insurance on these collapsing financials (not to mention all the other collapsing sectors to follow). That's not so much Buffett's problem, I suppose, but companies with heavy D&O exposure might be in for some hurt: Chubb, Ace, Travelers, AIG...oh, never mind....
Sorry Seb, I don't want to hurt feelings. It's just that your terrible and completely inaccurate calls were made with such confidence and bravado, ala Kudlow etc.
You continue to do the same, which is hard to read without making some sort of comment.
Billionaires who haven't lost:
How about John Paulson.
I have no interest in owning any financial or company with a significant financial operation. And I'm very cynical about the medium and long-term prospects of civilization in general. My current thought centers more on what I see around me, which is all of the "professionals" I speak to who were uber-bullish this time last year are now uber-bearish and short stocks for the first time in their lives - ie. the really bad trader-o-meter is screaming a buy signal right now. If I'm wrong, unlike most people, I'll actually stop out before it gets too painful, and wait for another opportunity.
I have another question for the good people here.
I am wondering how many of the people who comment here have experienced poverty or are now experiencing poverty?
What I mean by poverty is not knowing where your next meal will come from or where you will lay your head for the night.
It's just that your terrible and completely inaccurate calls were made with such confidence and bravado,
Omen | 01.22.09 - 3:33 pm | #
Uh, just about everyone on this blog does that, whether they're calling for a Q3 recovery, or recommending ammo for the apocalypse. What's your point?
LOL Nova!
We have room for steady-minded peeps who want to pitch in
But as much as I like to 'game' the doom-scenarios, I'm scared sh!tless at the thought of going up against it.
My mantra is 'bend, not break'. I try to stay flexible since anything can happen....maybe even a happy ending!
Seen the pitcher last night, Grapes of Wrath, best cussed pitcher I ever seen.
The Grapes of Wrath, you know is about us pullin' out of Oklahoma and Arkansas, and down south, and a driftin' around over state of California, busted, disgusted, down and out, and a lookin' for work.
Shows you how come us to be that a way. Shows the dam bankers men that broke us and the dust that choked us, and comes right out in plain old English and says what to do about it.
It says you got to get together and have some meetins, and stick together, and raise old billy hell till you get youre job, and get your farm back, and your house and your chickens and your groceries and your clothes, and your money back.
Go to see Grapes of Wrath, pardner, go to see it and don't miss.
You was the star in that picture. Go and see your own self and hear your own words and your own song.
Woody Guthrie, in one of his People's World columns (1939-'40), reprinted in Woody Sez, New York, NY, 1975, p. 133.
It has become clearer to me that two points stand out about Buffett to those who read between the lines and do a little searching:
First, this guy is actually believing his own press (or he is slowly losing it).
Second, while he has made a ton investing, this guy produces nothing of value.
As a side note, he plays both sides of the fence as well as anyone and how many people has he shafted with his insurance cos.? How many people have Geico and found out their coverage wasn't what it should be?
How many found out that the hurricane is an act of God and isn't covered? (I also like how atheist insurance people say hurricanes are an act of God.) Don't get me wrong, you can believe what you want, just don't believe God doesn't exist, but use that card when it means paying up on an insurance claim. HYPOCRISY!
Also, for all the capitalism talk, he sure likes handouts as much as the next person!
What a crock.
He may have billions, but at least I have my integrity and consistency.
Warren Flip Flop Buffett!
Ticker Tape of Doom
We were so poor that we had to take turns smelling the neighbors cornbread cooking.
Thains Office Overhaul Said to Cost $1.2 Million
Thain’s Office Overhaul Said to Cost $1.2 Million - DealBook Blog - NYTimes.com
Been looking at this ClubOrlov site.
Nice writing. Some excerpts from the The bastion of American socialism
A nationalization of the private sector can indeed be called socialist, but only when it is carried out by a socialist government. In absence of this key ingredient, a perfect melding of government and private business is, in fact, the gold standard of fascism.
As a practical matter, failing at capitalism does not automatically make you socialist, no more than failing at marriage automatically make you gay. Even if desperation makes you randy for anything that is warm-blooded and doesn't bite, the happily gay lifestyle is not automatically there for the taking.
However, here a distinction can be drawn: systems that attempt to do good seem far more corruptible than ones that have no such pretensions. Thus, a socialist system, inspired by the noblest of impulses to help one's fellow man, quickly develops social inequalities that it was designed to eradicate, breeding cynicism,
Let us start with the observation that intelligence, and the ability to benefit from higher education, occur more or less randomly within a human population. The genetic and environmental variation is such that it is not even conceivable to breed people for high intellectual abilities, although, as a look at any number of aristocratic lineages will tell you, it is most certainly possible to breed blue-blooded imbeciles.Thus, offering higher education to those whose parents can afford it is a way to squander resources on a great lot of pampered nincompoops while denying education to working class minds that might actually soak it up and benefit from it. A case in point: why exactly was it a good idea to send George W. Bush to Yale, and then to Harvard Business School? A wanton misallocation of resources, wouldn't you agree?
Very Nice.
Turbo writes:
I have no interest in owning any financial or company with a significant financial operation. And I'm very cynical about the medium and long-term prospects of civilization in general. My current thought centers more on what I see around me, which is all of the "professionals" I speak to who were uber-bullish this time last year are now uber-bearish and short stocks for the first time in their lives - ie. the really bad trader-o-meter is screaming a buy signal right now. If I'm wrong, unlike most people, I'll actually stop out before it gets too painful, and wait for another opportunity.
Turbo | 01.22.09 - 3:34 pm | #
This sums up my view as well Turbo.
I didn't even know it was called speculation. Good Ole Boy Warren has been engaged in sophisticated exotic financial instruments for decades and until recently was doing very good with them:
Buffett's huge derivatives bet proves costly
Posted Nov 20 2008, 12:48 PM by Jon Markman
Filed under: investing, Investment Banking, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Jon Markman
Shares of Warren Buffett's insurance holding company are on the ropes this month, plunging 30% in part because the famed investor dabbled in an area of the market he has long publicly derided: derivatives. And due to a tangled web of financial relationships, they may be taking Goldman Sachs shares down with them.
But don't let that stop you from reading his 2002 Berkshire annual report where he claimed BRK was getting out of these "time bombs."
Uh, just about everyone on this blog does that, whether they're calling for a Q3 recovery, or recommending ammo for the apocalypse.
Eric | 01.22.09 - 3:35 pm | #
Not true Eric. The "bravado list" here is much shorter. I'm not enough of a student of human/trader nature to know for sure, but I have a hunch that bravado is a money-losing character trait in the long run.
I was unemployed for nine months.
But, I've always been a saver, and my family and I lived off of our nestegg.
Homeless, no.
We will have mental hospitals, again, for those poor souls whose families pawn them off on society (e.g., Kennedy family daughter).
"What's your point?"
Eric = Sebastian?
I think I made my point. Seb has been overly optimistic into a horrific decline.
Most mega doomers here are somewhat sarcastic and have still been much more correct than Seb.
But as much as I like to 'game' the doom-scenarios, I'm scared sh!tless at the thought of going up against it.
Actually Joanna, so am I. I like the lifestyle - worked on a farm. God, you can bust ass doing that. If you keep it small - like what I think you and your partner are doing - that is nice.
Watch out tho. Getting livestock can end up owning you. They can be a real ball and chain.
OT -
I have a question about technical analysis/ Elliot Wave trading. Is it all just a self fulfilling prophecy or does it have a sound basis behind it? I mean if reading a chart could make you rich, why not just feed all possible permutations/combinations to a computer, sit back and watch yourselves get rich? Have I answered my own question?
ova writes:
Ticker Tape of Doom
We were so poor that we had to take turns smelling the neighbors cornbread cooking.
LOL. Those hunger pangs ain't fun when the olfactory sense kicks in.
Linus Torvalds gave more to the world.
1 currency sooner [yogi] | 01.22.09 - 3:33 pm | #
Indeed. He may even be saving capitalism from itself as more and more ailing companies forgo the extortionist Microsoft stranglehold for Linux.
Woody Guthrie, in one of his People's World columns (1939-'40), reprinted in Woody Sez, New York, NY, 1975, p. 133.
foolonthehill | 01.22.09 - 3:35 pm |
Amazing that Woody Guthrie was from Oklahoma - but not surprising he didn't return there.
I'll even be charitable to a dawg
rent_to_own | 01.22.09 - 3:40 pm | #
"He may have billions, but at least I have my integrity and consistency."
"What can I get you for lunch."
"Integrity, medium rare."
"And what would you like to drink?"
"Consistency in a tall glass."
"That will be right up."
30 minutes later
"Waitress, where is my order? I am hungry and thirtsy."
"Yes, you are."
Vic, I subscribe to EW.
But, I think markets today are manipulated by the PPT.
So, I read the three-times-per-week updates for giggles, because the EW folks make no provision for PPT manipulation.
After the PPT stops its manipulation (who knows when), I think EW will prove very useful. It makes sense to me.
We were so poor and hungry the local squirrels would sacrfice one of the males every fall on the hiway in front. Just for us. Dang nice little critters.
Dang fools in Oklahoma.
Their grandparents lost their farms to the dam bankers and these fools vote for the party of those dam bankers.
They got used and mistreated by the SoCal Big farmers but they vore for the party of those Big farmers
Dang fools vote for Inhofe and Coburn. Two of the biggest mule heads in the Senate.
Actually I had malnutrution twice before 18. Does that work for you?
Conjure says, "Warren has unwittingly intimated to the world that the Obama administration still doesn't have a plan."
"Therefore:"
CONJURE'S GLOBAL DEPRESSION CLOCK
The time is now--
11:59:59.3
"Have a nice day."
""Name the billionaires who haven't lost 40% of their wealth in the last year.""
David Geffen? Even if Eddie's Sears antics hit the shoals, DG is a smart guy with many eggs in many baskets, none of which are too excited about equities.
P.S. Gary you seem to be in a bad mood today, just sayin'.
sdtfs | 01.22.09 - 2:58 pm | #
Merely gassy.
Perhaps my jest at zephyr's expense earlier was unfair, jg has earned the opprobrium.
To quote the original fictional Mr. Sparkle:
I am disrespectful to dirt!
Re: Dust bowl
We've been getting so little rain here these last couple of years in CA that it seems to me like the Californians might end up like the Okies. Getting some rain today, but far from enough. Really, if an agricultural event accompanies this recession, we could see a lot of misery.
11:59:59.3
dang!
oops, Buffet trips conjure countdown.
mp writes:
Conjure says, "Warren has unwittingly intimated to the world that the Obama administration still doesn't have a plan."
Or they have a plan but wouldn't talk about it while he was in the room.
Just getting the logical possibilities out on the table....
"""Name the billionaires who haven't lost 40% of their wealth in the last year.""
David Geffen"
One at a time. Notice how nobody is rolling off a list? Is there a reason for this?
11:59:59.3
"Have a nice day."
mp | 01.22.09 - 3:44 pm | #
DAY? Have a nice DAY? Can't I at least have a nice weekend? I'm going skiing tomorrow after all.
they're skyin' 'em, boss
"Or they have a plan but wouldn't talk about it while he was in the room."
Right. More like, the plan is to have a plan.
California actually passed a law prohibiting Okies in 1937. Supreme Court said no. (The switch in time that saved nine was 1936)
" Notice how nobody is rolling off a list?"
well, hedgie clients aren't known for their desire for transparency and PR... something easily exploited by madoff
We tried to play it right with our circumstances to have a few years of practice before really having to depend on our own production for food. We made some expensive but valuable mistakes regarding livestock, and I think we have it right finally. We also stopped looking at bigger places, because there is only so much 2 people can care for.
Check out what these people are doing on a city lot -
If it is the gov I know and love then right now they are having a meeting about what they are going to talk about in the real meeting.
I thought their big plan was the aggregator bank. We'll see in a few weeks here.
Conjure says, "Rob Dawg, have a nice weekend."
"OK?"
market opened 3:40pm
ille_vir(Unrated) writes:
Re: Dust bowl
We've been getting so little rain here these last couple of years in CA that it seems to me like the Californians might end up like the Okies. Getting some rain today, but far from enough. Really, if an agricultural event accompanies this recession, we could see a lot of misery
Heard there are good paying jobs in Oklahoma
Can see them now. Streaming East with a dozen tucked into a Hummer or a Navigator with their 52"er tied to the top.
"well, hedgie clients aren't known for their desire for transparency and PR... something easily exploited by madoff
bgates"
I don't want excuses, I want answers.
Really, if an agricultural event accompanies this recession, we could see a lot of misery.
ille_vir | 01.22.09 - 3:45 pm |
A good friend sells specialty chemicals, including Potash products. Due to the price of crude last summer, many parts of the world did not fertilize and have lowered yeilds. Combine that with China's migration to a protein based diet and the world is one crop failure away from a regional famine.
mp,
aren't you running out of clocks to melt?
Whoops! Link - Path to Freedom
Check out what these people are doing on a city lot -
I did the community garden thing for about 10 years. Not going to do it anymore for a couple reasons. Age, time, and thieves. I don't mind gleaning but don't strip the plant.
We were so poor that we had to take turns smelling the neighbors cornbread cooking.
You could smell the neighbor's cooking? That must have been nice, but of course we had it tough. We had to listen to the neighbors tell us about what their cooking smelled like. Filled us up for days, that did.
To put it another way, Buffet has lost more billions than Madoff.
Hadasssah hospital lost 90 million to Madoff, but when they checked their numbers, they realized they had pulled 130 million out over the years. Just a "big numbers" problem? Not.
I am glad you made it through that part of your life Comrade Dope(jg).
I am gathering some anecdotal evidence for a hypothesis I have.
I believe (perhaps falsely) that those who have experienced significant setbacks or poverty in their lives and or come from broken homes are more likely to take a gloom and doom view point than those who come from stable families and have not experience any setbacks.
Also that those who have experienced these situations are psychologically more prepared to deal with difficult economic circumstances.
But this can also be a liability when opportunity for a hopeful scenario presents itself.
I am seeking a balanced viewpoint for myself. A viewpoint dominated by a sense of impending doom is not an emotionally stable position for me to remain in.
Although, I am prepared/preparing for the worst while hoping for the best.
Just tossing some thoughts out there.
I think the reference to Pearl Harbor is oddly used. The Japanese are not bombing us - a reference to the Great Depression would have been more to the point.
For somebody who says he advised Obama of coming difficulties, Warren seems to have done precious little to protect his shareholders' value.
" I want answers."
um.. koch(es) and walton(s) come to mind... that help?
Missing Bag, Conjure's office, which is next to mine, is full of clocks; all of them are ticking.
Joanna - beautiful website!
Thanks, I will look at it later.
Conjure says, "Rob Dawg, have a nice weekend."
"OK?"
mp | 01.22.09 - 3:50 pm | #
Whew. Experience says I can't link to Calculated Risk with my iPhone while riding the quad lift at Mammoth and I didn't want to miss anything.
"We had to listen to the neighbors tell us about what their cooking smelled like. Filled us up for days, that did."
ate my left arm and big toes, yessir
they realized they had pulled 130 million out over the years.
1 currency sooner [yogi] | 01.22.09 - 3:52 pm | #
And might be coughing some of that back up.
"After the PPT stops its manipulation (who knows when), I think EW will prove very useful. It makes sense to me"
Clarification
PPT = Proffesional Poker Tour
EW = Etertainment Weekly
Thank you for your help in advance...
You boys must be from the holler behind us. We heard talk about you and your ways...
We have elbow room, watchful neighbors, and assorted security layers.
There are some plant diseases on the move that are troubling. Wheat rusts, some kind of corn plague....late blights getting more virulent, etc.
Tomatoes are becoming a luxury crop for home gardeners in our area due to climate/disease problems.
I wonder if that will be taken into consideration along with other financial woes...
"...they’ve been very, very wrong...What we do know is to stand by and do nothing is a terrible mistake"
So: do something even if it's wrong.
Not advice I respect.
mp and conjure :
Serious question.
Say today (right now) they decide to nationalize, wouldn't we still get a depression?
The snowball is already too big and rolling to fast... the clock should have stuck midnight by now.
Rob,
If you're not turning, you're not skiing, then the slope is controlling you. Someone told me that. Have a nice weekend.
BRK-A's 5 yr chart shows it now flat over that time frame.
ova writes:
Actually I had malnutrution twice before 18. Does that work for you?
Sure. lol. I am glad you are still alive. Your good humor is appreciated by me.
Ticker Tape of Doom | 01.22.09
That was true.
Obama to keep Blackberry.
TAKE RIMM ON THAT!!!!!!!
ppt=pwunge pwovention team
just wanted to make that cwear
I was 6'2" and 104 lbs at one point ...
Yes he only made more money than anyone else in the world (at one point by simply investing). He really sucks. That WB is a sham. All luck.
Elvis | 01.22.09 - 3:13 pm | #
ya', but what has he done for me lately!? <just kidding>
"Watch out tho. Getting livestock can end up owning you. They can be a real ball and chain."
.......naw.....my cow lets me hit the poker tables once a month if I give her lotsa ripe tomatoes....don't know about the comin' calf tho..
Nice site, Joanna, looks too cold fur us
After the PPT stops its manipulation (who knows when), I think EW will prove very useful. It makes sense to me.
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) | 01.22.09 - 3:42 pm | #
That is the part I don't understand, if you are just reading charts - why should it matter? FWIW, I don't believe in the PPT, else the markets wouldn't have been down 50% YTD.
A good friend sells specialty chemicals, including Potash products. Due to the price of crude last summer, many parts of the world did not fertilize and have lowered yeilds. Combine that with China's migration to a protein based diet and the world is one crop failure away from a regional famine.
\t lama | \t \t \t \t01.22.09 - 3:50 pm | #
I know nothing about agriculture, but it seems to me we've always had some region of the world in the crop failure/famine state as long as I've lived. Are we somehow worse off now? Just-in-time practices made it to the agricultural sector as well?
agree with wally. very bizarre reference. Pearl Harbor. what vicious foreign external entity has bombed our financial markets?
well, for one those damn commie savers...
/end sardonicism...
but Buffett is in the room and I agree that he has leaked that really things are that bad, try anything, all of it, it might work. Swallow drano if it'll cure the cancer...
--bh
"I was 6'2" and 104 lbs"
wow. what was the context?
ova writes:
Ticker Tape of Doom | 01.22.09
That was true.
I believe you.
You seem to have taken it in stride and with good humor.
That maybe a very valuable resource in the difficult times that we are going through and will go through.
""Name the billionaires who haven't lost 40% of their wealth in the last year.""
That is why I donate to the "Habitat for Wall Street" every time I buy something! Just like donating to government employees extra holiday fund every time I pay taxes.
Rioting in Iceland...Daily Mail says
@ Mock Turtle
You need to look at the oversight of Rezko's affordable housing portfolio to understand the payoff received. Essentially Rezko bled numerous affordable housing projects of their cash flow without making the necessary reinvestments to prevent degradation of those properties. This was a well known fact within the Chicago Department of Housing and within Alderman Preckwinkle's ward. It is my understanding that these issues were raised to the State Senate level where Mr. Obama was the elected representative for this portion of the City of Chicago. Needless to say enforcement measures by the City to bring these buildings up to code were not taken. This is my brief take on where Rezko received its "payback" for the land deal.
-Vert
mock turtle writes:
and now to my friend..comrade jg
much of what you said above is worth considering
but im put out , like gary, with one of your comments
you have no reason that i am aware of, to say that obama is influenced or connected with chicago mob...re economics or otherwise
as for rezco... yeah obama got a sweet deal on the purchase of one parcel of land
show me decisions obama made that constitute a payback and ill cry foul along with you
mock turtle | 01.22.09 - 3:20 pm | #
good day for the good guys - tbt and jnk nicely green, gsg rallying off lows. go team.
"I am wondering how many of the people who comment here have experienced poverty or are now experiencing poverty?"
My hand is up 1982 - divorce, lost my business - lived in a storage shed, ate behind some of CA's finest restaurants.
"Or they have a plan but wouldn't talk about it while he was in the room."
Conjure says, "PEOPLE, THE PROBLEM IS MORE BASIC THAN THAT! CAN'T YOU READ?"
"THE MAN SAID:
"The answer is nobody knows. The economists dont know."
"HOW CAN YOU HAVE A PLAN WHEN NO ONE KNOWS WHAT THE PROBLEM IS?"
"Have a nice day."
The context was - Sh!T happens. We all don't get the Brady Bunch upbringing.
Now, I need to lose about 10lbs...well maybe 20
Nice site, Joanna, looks too cold fur us
Black Star Ranch | 01.22.09 - 3:57 pm | #
Agree. Love to do something similar, but we wouldn't know who to leave in charge of the livestock if we went to visit family. We'll have to concentrate on stuff that can be automated, e.g., irrigated.
This is more like the Trojan Horse. We even had our share of Cassandra's.
BRK-A's 5 yr chart shows it now flat over that time frame.
Kung Fu Panda | Homepage | 01.22.09 - 3:55 pm | #
More precisely +3%. Compare:
Dow -23%
S&P -27%
NAS -31%
In conclusion,
Buffet +1
AP'Shadow writes:
Rioting in Iceland...Daily Mail says
News from Iceland in English:
Home | NewsFrettir - Icelandic news in English
"Habitat for Wall Street"
Spend a weekend in lovely Greenwich voluteering to complete a spec mansion for a hedge fund master of the universe. Tres karma!
"I am wondering how many of the people who comment here have experienced poverty or are now experiencing poverty?"
From 21-23 years old I lived on about $700 a month. It's as close as I would like to come to it.
Going hungry so you know what it feels like to be poor is about as enlightened as shooting yourself to see what war feels like.
AP'Shadow writes:
Rioting in Iceland...Daily Mail says.
----teach a man to fish and he eats for a lifetime. Teach a man to bank, and you gotta throw him a lifeline.
"The context was - Sh!T happens. "
that kind of starvation has generally only happened to POWs or those on the wrong side of "central planning" in lands north of the equator.
are you a 90-year old who grew up in the ukraine?
Joanna,
That's why the open pollinating varieties are preferable. Those plants which adapt to the various pests are preserved by going to seed to be reused the next year.
we have a city plot as well, as well as a backyard raised bed system...in any case, last year was fine for city plot...my barometer or unofficial economic forcast will be based on pilferage which I expect.
If you're not turning, you're not skiing, then the slope is controlling you. Someone told me that. Have a nice weekend.
lama | 01.22.09 - 3:55 pm | #
First time since the quadruple bypass. I'll be sure to bring back a real estate implosion report from Mammoth Lakes, CA. Technically they are still skyin' the prices but I've seen that Potemkin false front before in Ventura County and before that the Inland Empire. I know what to look for. I'll count the turboprops on the tarmack. I'll see how full the gondola is from the Condotel. I'll notice the weather worn for sale signs in front of unplowed properties. I'll look for Realitter® signs from out-of-area.
bgates | 01.22.09 - 4:02 pm
You want the story? Send me an email.
It all seems like a million years ago. Yeah, one of the reasons I hugged my daughter every day for years...
" I'll be sure to bring back a real estate implosion report from Mammoth Lakes, CA."
as if the fire threat encouraged by those beetles wasn't enough
Interesting Times- "Say today (right now) they decide to nationalize, wouldn't we still get a depression?"
Not necessarily. A lot of this still depends on public perception, and that's one of the reasons a few tenths of a second are left.
Had Obama displayed decisiveness by laying a plan on the table and telling Congress that he expected it on his desk for signature within two weeks, the entire world would have said,
WHOA! This guy knows what he wants.
Alas, he is not inspiring confidence.
You can say, well, give the guy a chance. The problem is that our economy is on the brink. There isn't time for warm fuzzies.
In other words, he's got to deliver.
Now. Yesterday would have been better.
New Thread: A2/P2 Spread Falls Sharply ( 4 comments )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
JP Morgan, When I Say Insolvent, I Really Mean Insolvent
Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog - Re: JP Morgan, when I say insolvent, I really mean insolvent
I have said it before, and I'll say it again - JP Morgan is insolvent! Anybody from JPM who wants to correct can simply email me via the contact form at the top of my site to show me where I'm wrong. I am always willing to admit that I am wrong when I actually am. I don't think this is one of those times. Keep in mind that throughout this entire credit debacle, I haven't been wrong about a bank or insurer yet.
Rob Dawg,
Have a great time in Mammoth. Good memories, until my father explained to me that it was really a dormant volcano that still registered magma flows and could awake at any time.
--bh
"Further, the process of transformation, even if it brings revolutionary change, is likely to be a long one, absent some catastrophic and catalyzing event - like a new Pearl Harbor"
-- PNAC (Project for a New American Century - Cheney, Scooter Libby, Richard Perle, Donald Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz, etc.)
"The Pearl Harbor of the 21st century took place today."
-- George W. Bush diary entry, 9/11/2001
"In fact in September I said we were in an economic Pearl Harbor and Ive never used that phrase before."
-- Warren Buffett
Disaster Capitalism rolls on, using the same tired meme. How about "New Gulf of Tonkin", or "new Operation Northwoods" instead?
mp | 01.22.09 - 4:05 pm
I thought about this last night. I agree.
I was hoping they had a plan to drop some scare bombs first - then spring the plan. Not looking that way.
"The problem is that our economy is on the brink."MP
Citi rolling over this weekend?
Going hungry so you know what it feels like to be poor is about as enlightened as shooting yourself to see what war feels like.
nova | Homepage | 01.22.09 - 4:02 pm | #
hahaha. yes. I would never wish poverty on anyone having had my own experiences with severe poverty.
I feel it is an asset now though.
I am not that afraid of what is going to transpire because:
1) I am preparing / have prepared.
2) I have already experienced some very dire circumstances.
3) Death is inevitable. When the time comes - that is it.
4) Because of 3) - there is no reason to live in misery. I am still alive and I can do something to better myself and those around me.
"Send me an email."
I'm as paranoid about my privacy as you probably are. I'm just curious, for some reason I'm drawn to disaster history in the past few years, "Mao The Untold Story" "Court of the Red Tsar" "Under the Loving Care"... something about totalitarian culture which I find interesting.
Joanna | Homepage | 01.22.09 - 3:51 pm | #
Whoops! Link - Path to Freedom
Joanna,
You may want to occasionally read this blog of a long time UK/US resident to who moved backto Sri Lanka to live off the land.
Dream into Reality
P E R C E P T I O N S
bgates | 01.22.09 - 4:09 pm
Sorry, nothing tied to a drama or story. Just life.
Joanna I really like your blog.
I have deep respect for all those who have taken the road of self sufficiency.
"Just life."
narrative is in the eye of the beholder
i'm calling BS, i think a certain few know with reasonable certainty what would be the least painful way out of the mess, but it is political suicide to administer the treatment because of the extremely high chance you won't get re-elected. also, i think that the least painful way out involves an initially much deeper but relatively shorter downturn and IMO the politcal class prefer a shallower, longer downturn where they aren't responsible for a cliff dive....even though that dive may be followed by a modest recovery. but i'm drunk right now, so what do I know.
I can read, mp. Fact is, I think you're probably right; I just don't see Buffett's inability to formulate the problem (or to formulate much of anything, if this interview is typical) as evidence that no one on Obama's team has.
My guess, though, is that no one has been able to formulate the problem because they're inherently, systematically, incapable of grasping it. Fundamentally as I see it, the problem is one of inadequate aggregate demand brought about by an overconcentration of wealth. But every single member of Obama's team is in that small subclass where the wealth has been overconcentrated. They've all got a quarter of a century invested in this project of smashing labor's ability to negotiate a decent wage. Recognition of the problem would be akin to a conversion experience; they won't do so until (1) there is divine intervention or (2) they are no longer in the subclass within which wealth has been overconcentrated, whichever comes first.
blackhat,
la sits on a fault, as does sf..
anywhere east of rockies can get hit by tornado
cars hit people..people die from falling off bikes
etc etc
good times are great in bad times
enjoy rob
Yalt- "I can read, mp."
Yalt, Conjure and I apologize for that.
We can only offer by way of excuse that we are very frustrated with all of this, as we're sure you are.
To turn things around, we have to fix the banks.
To do that, why not just have the government insure the toxic securities? The government could do a discounted cash flow analysis and decide how much of each security it would insure against default. And charge a premium to boot. The bank would only write off the uninsured portion. For example, if a security is worth 75 cents on the dollar based on cash flow, the bank would write off 25 cents and the government would insure the remainder, 75 cents, against default.
Gov could use the $350 billion TARP to capitalize the government insurance company.
Intact billionaires?
The Dardens, the Basses and the Darts are all right as far as I know.
"To turn things around, we have to fix the banks."
I'd say: to turn things around, we have to change the banks.
The Dardens, the Basses and the Darts are all right as far as I know.
burnside | 01.22.09 - 4:23 pm | #
As I recall the Bass brothers had heavy exposure to some dicey mortgage lending and real estate operations--were they able to get out at the top?
Yalt, I haven't heard much about the Caymans, so perhaps they've got dinged. Though 40% seems high for an estimate.
enjoy rob
anon | 01.22.09 - 4:17 pm | #
This is a deep thought. Don't discount it. Yes, my house has lost $600k from the peak. Yes, we are entering a long, deep recesson or a short shallow depression dependin upon your perspective. Doesn't matter. Half our economy won't even notice. Some yachts and some turboprops will still sell. Some luxocondos and some ski chalets will still change hands. I'll be buying that 2004 V70 2.5T for less than $8000. Unless you are planning on living forever there's a bunch of things that simply aren't worth putting off.
My point is simple: Every billionaire has gotten crushed unless they are one of the select few who are almost exclusively focused/invested on an area of the economy that has not gotten hit. Waltons are a good example.
meh, plan this plan that.
Bernanke is an 'expert' on Depression, so what?
Next time let's elect an expert on earthquakes to be our President, I am sure all earthquakes will suddenly stop happening.
we can't stop what's coming to our economy. We can just play with the redistribution of pain, which is an entirely different problem, and one nobody has looked at.
Just-in-time practices made it to the agricultural sector as well?
ille_vir | 01.22.09 - 3:58 pm
It's always been JIT. It's less so now with all the genetic modifications and parafin coatings.
The difference in the famine my friend describes is that it's based on supply, not politics or war. There was lots of food during the Irish famine, the world wars, right up to the African famines of this era. It wasn't available to the hungry, however.
Elvis, I expect that's right.
The very few I have any familiarity with have had to be excessively nimble for the past few years.
By the way, I loved your lunch counter koan.
"HOW CAN YOU HAVE A PLAN WHEN NO ONE KNOWS WHAT THE PROBLEM IS?"
"Have a nice day."
Don't believe that crafty old bastard for a second. He wants you to be afraid. The people who make money and wield the most power are the ones who feed us the greed and fear. They manufacture it and distribute it.
If he was for real, he would not have said this. It's irresponsible to throw more fuel on the fire. He's part of the problem and one of its creators.
Hadasssah hospital lost 90 million to Madoff, but when they checked their numbers, they realized they had pulled 130 million out over the years.
They better have good lawyers to fight the clawbacks.
T-T-of D-, I think your hypothesis has merit.
I was utterly befuddled by the credit mania of this decade, and failed to take advantage of it (e.g., becoming a flipper).
As I tell folks, the best thing that happened to me was that I lost my job.
When I got this job, I was more cautious financially. Then, I was able to see that home prices here in SoCal were nuts (this was late '04). Seeing the housing bubble led me to see the credit bubble, which led me to gold and shorting the market.
So, yes, my setback (unemployment) strengthened and awakened and alerted me, and I am grateful that I recovered from my setback.
The problem is simple - the solution is what is bothersome.
Problem: The world economy has relied on the US consumer to borrow and spend forever. Consumers have stopped buying.
NOT the Solution: Get the old consumer buying again.
Solution: Return the US to a production economy and become a net exporter of goods. Let consumers save.
We can just play with the redistribution of pain, which is an entirely different problem, and one nobody has looked at.
Missing Bag | 01.22.09 - 4:36 pm | #
On the contrary, that is the only problem anybody has looked at. Every public discussion of "saving the economy" has, in fact, been a discussion of how to save creditors from pain, reframed for obvious political reasons, but if you look at the possibilities vetted and the decisions reached it's pretty clear what the goal was.
Uncle B,
I had the sense Buffett wasn't showing any cards at all.
I did really hate to read "I don't think the worry right now should be about the next one . . ." If there were any real competence at work in DC today, that would have to be an overtly false statement.
Well, we'll see.
Comrade Dope(jg)
Thanks for sharing your experiences. What you describe in your experience lead me to that line of reasoning.
Also, I am comparing how my wife is reacting to the news and data vs how I react to it.
She tends to temper my pessimism because she has never really experienced setbacks.
I temper her optimism because of the numerous difficulties I have faced.
I want to internalize this sense of balance.
Not sure if my hypothesis will lead to anything other than just a tool for me to shape my perception and my reactions.
burnside: New rules -- verify, then trust.
Denninger published a simple, concise, 3 point plan to fix this mess a few days ago. Problem is it won't happen because it basically defangs the Fed and the banking cartel
So what are the chances that O will push for nationalizing the banks when his supporter/friend Buffet has so much skin in the game? I'm not feeling too good about this. I will be buying more chickens in the spring as well.
We must keep the bankers alive AT ALL COSTS! And since they run the country, we will sacrifice everything - including you and me.
Re: Hadassah hospital:
That's over many years and they lost all their principal. Whether anyone can claw back the difference between what they took out, what they lost, and an average rate of return for an ordinary institutional investor is very unlikely. If you sell your BRK and it turns out to have been a sophisticated Ponzi/insurance scheme all the way, you will be OK.
Depressing.
The problem, at least to me, is the definition of "fixing America's economy." It seems to far too many people, a "fixed" economy consists of peopling being buried under debt as their jobs vanish overseas until we achieve a "perfect economy" consisting of nothing but scams, house-flipping, and buying crud we can't afford, don't need, and don't produce.
If that is the "normal" they want us to return to, count me out!
Second, while he has made a ton investing, this guy produces nothing of value.
That's the definition of rentier, is it not? Isn't Buffet the Supreme Rentier?
Does anyone here entertain the possibility that those who preach non stop doom might also be talking their book and trying to line their pockets preaching an unbalanced vision of the future?
Someone in another thread a while back gave the best retort, IMO.
"See Timmy!! I told you if you kept playing with matches you'd burn our house down!! SEE!!
Oh, what about my stuff... and where will we sleep tonight???"
I think most D&G'ers are sanguine enough to realize when this sucker goes down, they won't just skate away unscathed, and being right will bring little recompense.
Good Summary, Yalt. i too think that overconcentration of wealth is the problem. But the system can still limp along without a correction in wealth distribution, as long as people still believe in it. Once the majority stops believing... Watch out.
But for now, it looks as if people still believe that our current arrangement will work.
So where were these eagle-eye legal beagle Conservatives during the past eight years of Republican rule?
Apparently Vertical Drop fell on his head and just NOW recovered in time to start bleating more of the insane nonsense of their breed.
I cannot respect the situational ethics which the Rightwing Republican Conservatives engage in constantly. It is so cowardly, petty and self-serving.
First time since the quadruple bypass
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.22.09 - 4:04 pm | #
Did you grow up on Souther food?
Did you grow up on Souther food?
xxxxx | 01.22.09 - 6:03 pm | #
Nope. Bad choice of ancestors. Good news, most everything we know about heart disease is advanced with my problems. I'm a third generation cohort in the Framingham Heart Study where may grand parents were single digit participants.