Bank Failures and Commercial Real Estate
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Thu, 01/22/2009 - 11:44pm (207 comments)
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emonium!
Where's the Bank Holiday ?
Then who is going to form new small banks?
OH GOD SAVE THE BANKERS
A thousand tiny points of light . . .
where's everybody? battle fatigue??
small banks?
S N | 01.23.09 - 3:00 am | #
Small investors, doctors, dentists, dot coms, VC's.
So what type of bank is doing relatively better in this downturn? Credit unions? Mattresses?
when are you gonna call it a depression?
lucifer writes:
when are you gonna call it a depression?
never,we will call it "time of renewal"
Woohoo! Pizza parties every Friday night!
LIMDA writes:
lucifer writes:
when are you gonna call it a depression?
"time of indefinite readjustments to produce classless free and happy society"
The employeement is going down to toilet. Along with it goes the rest.
at the time of extreme difficulty politicians have gift of making nice sounding words.Hope it continues
Nikkei off about 4%.
Europe on deck.
GE anyone?
My little rural burg had a town meeting tonight to figure out how to rescue the local businesses that are suffering from the recession.
The solution decided on? To send out coupons for the businesses, in the quarterly town newsletter.
Oh. And to finagle a small slice of Obama's stimulus pie.
LOL. I'm sure we're in the queue, just a little ways behind the porn industry.
End of day roundup and musings
Jérôme Kerviel is throwing SocGen under a bus in his court testimony. Alleges in 2007 he had a 1.4bn profit that covered colleague's losses, made 0.5bn profit shorting Allianz before 7/7, that 9/11 had been perhaps SocGen's best day's profits in history
Called «le cash machine» at work, he was the "rogue trader" who lost 5bn
Obama is shutting down the CIA ghost prisons
The UK TFSA is in utter disarray. Problems with the Americans, problems with giving 1 hours notice to reinstate short selling domestically just as some hedge funds are trumpeting their profits on shorting the banks the UK is now bailing out, opposition party smells blood
The reason why the British banks face an additional element of risk is that they are very dependent on wholesale funding.
Which is why they bothered to buy risky assets, insure them with AIG, and mark them as Tier 1 capital. Which in turn is probably why the US hasn't got along with the UK during the bailout given that the UK contributed nothing to the AIG bailout
Now is the time to short Euro airlines. The Brits won't be able to afford holidays by the time summer gets here because a hotel breakfast will cost a week's wages back home.
Maybe go long those special lamps that mimic sunshine to encourage vitamin d production
I wish I was joking but to date things have developed faster than I expected them to proceed. It's not like there is some magical mutually beneficial alternative that could avert the liquidation of banking in the UK
At least with the Swiss it's interesting because you can wonder if CS and UBS had the fear of god struck into them by the Swiss National Bank and divested themselves of toxic assets earlier. I doubt it, but it's fun to day dream.
Their only hope now to continue the banking tradition (now that they've sold out on secrecy and tax shelters) is if other banking centres are as bad or worse off (Singapore, USA, HK, Japan. Even Germany, France, Canada, Brazil could poach deposits.)
Late night OT, but WTF, this is history and related to retail sales and whatever the topic is here tonight; what was it, guitar sales are slow?
Here is an example of Elvis not playing his Hagstrom Viking electric guitar:
YouTube - Elvis Presley - Trouble
That is one F of an ugly chart for the Nikkei:
^N225: Basic Chart for NIKKEI 225 - Yahoo! Finance
Three Japanese insurers - Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Group Holdings, Aioi Insurance and Nissay Dowa General Insurance - are in talks to merge, a company official with direct knowledge of the situation said, in a move that would create the country's largest non-life insurance firm
Jérôme Kerviel is throwing SocGen under a bus in his court testimony.
They deserve it for having thrown him under that bus to save their reputation in the first place.
As we have seen, anyone can become a bank overnight. 2 or 3 hundred fail, but they're all tied together. They lend to one another, remember? I'm going with a single real National Bank. Branches at every post office.
Reuters Iceland Factbox (Thu Jan 22)
-- Iceland's Finance Ministry said this week that it saw real GDP falling 9.6 percent in 2009 and remaining largely unchanged in 2010 compared with its October forecast of down 1.6 percent in 2009 and growth of 1.1 percent next year.
-- It also saw inflation for 2009 at 13.1 percent, compared to its October forecast of 5.7 percent. For 2010, it saw inflation coming down to 2.7 percent to put it in line with the central bank's target.
= - 9.6 - 13.1 = - 22.7% GDP in 2009
-- The government said it expected the current account deficit, currently at an estimated 22 percent of GDP, to reverse to a 6.1 percent surplus this year and to 5.6 percent in 2010. Unemployment was seen rising to an average of 7.8 percent in 2009 and rising even further in 2010, to 8.6 percent.
optimistic
My mistake, I misread the first sentence.
Iceland is forecasting a nominal 3.5% increase in GDP
Someone just might be trying to placate the rioting crowds outside the window...
I would post this on the relevant topic and that would be the appropriate thing to do for posterity's sake, but I don't care much for posterity.
These closed in loans in fact were to pretty darn strikingly high FICO customers, basically super prime customers by profile.
My Super Prime! posts:
site:haloscan.com calculatedrisk dr strangemoney "super prime" - Google Search
Credit is available from National Bank based on published, objective formula, with a little discretion. NO BONUSES.
If you don't like it, stick your cash in private bullshit bank. We'll keep the 250k guarantee, but no more TARP cheese.
Credit is available from National Bank based on published, objective formula, with a little discretion. NO BONUSES.
If you don't like it, stick your cash in private bullshit bank. We'll keep the 250k guarantee, but no more TARP cheese.
During Obama's inauguration speech I almost believed that we as a society might finally push back on the tasteless greed, but then I remembered how much money it takes to get elected.
It also saw inflation for 2009 at 13.1 percent,
Collapsing your financial system through inflation is much more continuous and less disruptive than collapsing your financial system through deflation.
I wonder if Britannia misses it gold it sold. Hit high today over there. Could not find a link for gold in Iceland Krona
Kitco Gold/Currency Charts
Gold pop right now in US
No chart but here's the latest price
1 Troy oz. = Kr204545.4545
Currency Converter - Yahoo! Finance
How come we have not audited our gold in umpteen years? Did we get rid of our safest asset in times of trouble?
Supplies Tighten Further, Rationing Begins
LONDON (MarketWatch) --
The British economy contracted sharply in the final three months of 2008, shrinking 1.5% compared to the previous quarter,
the Office for National Statistics reported Friday. The data confirmed widely held expectations that the U.K. economy had
entered its first recession since 1991. What's more, the quarterly contraction was the deepest since 1980.
.........global 5th semiconductor manufacturer Qimonda AG bankrupted......
What type of "banks' doing well. Yes Credit Unions - with an average 11:1 debt to asset ratio , some 14:1 . I'll take that bet over a mattress . Too bad no public credit unions to invest in ? Or are there a few ?
Battle fatigue indeed !
Bill
Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K. economy shrank more than economists forecast during the fourth quarter in the biggest contraction since 1980 as the financial crisis crippled the banking industry and mired Britain deeper in the recession.
Gross domestic product fell 1.5 percent from the previous quarter, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. Economists had predicted a 1.2 percent drop...
France's AAA Rating at Risk...per Bloomberg...
"The (European) commission expects Frances deficit to swell to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2009 as the economy contracts by 1.8 percent, the severest recession in six decades."
I suggest incinerating every employee of the rating agency cabal. This is not a time to start a trade war.. These f**kers have no real credibility anyway
//France's AAA Rating at Risk...per Bloomberg...//
hello...
morning links are UP...
also see the 2nd story on the front page...it's the one about you guys here and it has been updated...
there are 15 new links so far and I'm already depressed...
db
So what type of bank is doing relatively better in this downturn? Credit unions? Mattresses?
tranches of lint | 01.23.09 - 3:05 am
My CU is doing great. They have free checking, a $125 minimum balance requirement and a 2.7% one year CD right now.
So Etrade closed out my short position in KBH without informing me. Said they couldn't obtain shares. I had executed 35 puts last week. But if you see a whole bunch of puts expire in the money, and you know the existing short interest in a stock that's not too heavily traded, I suppose you could pretty reliably predict a short squeeze, even with selling pressure....
Makes you wonder how many of those responsible at smaller banks have a RTC pedigree - after all, learning about Republican bailouts for reckless stupidity seems to be a solid career path with a decent payout at its end.
Though at least in one case, we can be thankful that one man was stopped before dipping at the taxpayer till again -
'He was on the board of directors of Silverado Savings and Loan during the 1980s. His father was Vice President at the time, so Bush's role was a focal point of publicity. The savings and loan crisis cost the taxpayers billions of dollars, of which Silverado's failure accounted for roughly $1 billion. There was considerable criticism of Bush's role in the failure of the company. In the end Bush was not indicted, and no criminal charges were pressed against him. However a civil action was brought against him and the other Silverado directors by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and was eventually settled out of court. Bush was fined $50,000 as a consequence of his actions and he was restricted from undertaking future banking activity.'
M6.Net for Windows Web Hosting
The forgotten Bush brother - yet, the one with truly relevant experience for the times we live in. And one that seemed decades ahead of his time, if Time is to be trusted -
'Despite the persistent spotlight on the President's son, the story of Silverado's amazing expansion and rapid demise illustrates the broader evils behind the S&L disaster. It is a tale of interlocking relationships and sweet deals among S&Ls and their biggest customers, the possible impact of political contributions in delaying crackdowns by regulators, even the deceptive lure of junk bonds and their king, Michael Milken. It is not a case history of nice guys being caught innocently in an oil bust, as the defunct thrift's managers often claim. It is a study in greed, deceit and profiteering.'
Running with A Bad Crowd: Neil Bush & the $1 billion Silverado debacle - TIME
That last line seems as apt today as it was 20 years ago. The Bushs - a true family heritage of holding the line. Or at least of leaving the taxpayers holding the bag.
That was me above about Neil.
Anak - battle fatigue indeed.
Futures saying pain ahead, from kaboomberger:
\tVALUE\tCHANGE\t% CHANGE
DJStoxx 50\t2,113.00\t-51.00\t-2.36
FTSE 100\t3,966.00\t-45.00\t-1.12
DAX 30\t4,129.50\t-106.00\t-2.50
CAC 40\t2,809.00\t-60.00\t-2.09
S&P/MIB\t16,985.00\t-379.00\t-2.18
Asian eqs in the tank, but mining has gutted the ASX:
VALUE\tCHANGE\t% CHANGE
Topix\t773.55\t-22.36\t-2.81
Hang Seng\t12,578.60\t-79.39\t-0.63
Singapore Straits Times\t1,685.23\t-23.54\t-1.38
S&P/ASX\t3,342.70\t-144.10\t-4.13
Wow.
C
EHP - I feel like it's been a while since you've graced us, but I haven't had time to read all the long comment sections recently, so probably it's me...anywhoo, thanks for your thoughts.
Bill - +1 on the Credit Unions...I love mine; haven't used a commercial bank in over a decade...it's a no-brainer on so very many levels.
Where's the Bank Holiday ?
mmckinl | 01.23.09 - 2:59 am | #
Where's nemo?
Obama is shutting down the CIA ghost prisons
EvilHenryPaulson | 01.23.09 - 3:23 am | #
What ghost prisons
With C at 2.99 I'm tempted to buy calls again, but I suppose the word about the penny dividend is finally out.
HOG getting slaughtered pre.
Anyone heard about this:
and Bank of America Corp. 
may be nationalization by another name, according to former bankers and regulators.
Citigroup, Bank of America âNationalized' as U.S. Calls Shots
By Ari Levy \t\t \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t \t\t\t\t Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. government's decision to pledge billions of additional dollars with strings attached to Citigroup Inc.
"How come we have not audited our gold in umpteen years? "
in the parallel universe inhabited by our gubmint, gold is still $49
We were speculating that the Gov had made some kind of implicit deal with BoA back when it ate Countrywide's Septic Tank.
Saw that. There will be no confidence restored as long as deals are made behind closed doors. True nationalization means much greater transparency.
Happy Friday all!
My department is having a meeting this am to tell us all not t oworry, and just how they plan to go about laying off people (in the nearly impossible event that they should need to).
The joy is palpable.
I've been through too many takeovers/downturns/crises/recessions not to know the code words when I hear them.
This weekend I am sitting down with the household expediture projections and really plugging in the one-income scenario. They'll be pizzas at my house....
GE carrying 95 billion in goodwill. Gee.
Mated: Financial Blogs | Systemically Important
You were among a handful of blogs "mated" at the above link. Your bit:
If a roundhouse kick by Chuck Norris impregnated a calendar filled with witty quotes, what would be the result? 52 weeks of kick-ass posts at the Calculated Risk blog
Merge? As when the Black Death merges from person to person?
I ignore all you negative types here on CR and take my cues from a widely respected economist:
“I'm buying all [the REITs] I can get my little paws on. These are God's gift to retirees,” Mr. Stein said in a keynote speech at CIBC World Markets Inc.'s annual North American Real Estate Equities conference in Toronto.
Even Ben Stein Loves REITs
So how much did Thain pillage?
More pain is on the way. One-third of U.S. women recently surveyed by America's Research Group said they plan no clothing purchases--none--in 2009. Normally, it's just 4%. That means the market is still far too saturated with stores
Flesh-wound Friday or Flesh-eating Wound Friday?
discuss....
sorry, anonymous was me...FWF or FEWF?
Anon, goodness.
How many times are we going to serve Ben Stein his hat?
Joanna good luck and God speed
Joanna,
good luck. sounds like prepping the soldiers for redundancy and right sizing.
I love when businesses right size themsleves by cutting out their brains, limbs, and digits.
I think right-size is another term for slow, painful, ritual suicide.
--bh
Hmmmm...
Well, if there was a way to make this a compelling acronym:
ARTHUR:
Look, you stupid bastard. You've got no arms left.
BLACK KNIGHT:
Yes, I have.
ARTHUR:
Look!
BLACK KNIGHT:
Just a flesh wound.
[kick]
I'd opt for FWF.
Else, I'd throw in Zombies for wound.
FEZF.
Nostrovia,
Pardon my economic ignorance, but would anyone care to say something about one aspect the current and near term state of economic affairs?
In particular, if I understand it properly, we are now in a deflationary period. At the same time, they say the money printing presses are starting to work overtime and eventually this could cause inflation, maybe staggering inflation depending on how much cash they pull out of thin air. So eventually things will shift and prices will start going through the roof, one would suppose.
So the question is: Will this happen - deflation, then inflation? Or will the banks collapse and we plunge deep into the abyss before any of that can happen?
Sorry, I ain't too sofistacated, so ignore me if that makes you feel better.
Although...
FEWF...that can be pronounced...
Phew-ff. Phewf. Dely the fff sound.
Phew....fff...
Now emphasise the ffff sound.
Phew!...FFF!
Sort of like dodging a bullet, only to be slammed in the solar plexus with a Louiseville Slugger.
I'll need to ponder that, come Pinky.
Nostrovia,
Rule Change:
NYSE lowers market cap requirement. How sporting.
I'm a state university employee, so the layers of union and academic nonsense run deep. I just with they'd sort it out so I can put whatever plan into action. I have to plan months ahead for planting and livestock etc.
Oh well.....lucky to have a job blah blah blah
Whoops! Anon with the state job was me. Whining.
clevis slackjaw's brother,
"Or will the banks collapse..."
They already have. They're zombies already. The global derivative spider web is collapsing. Western gov't's do not print money...they're CBs loan out new money. Nobody wants more debt.
Deflation is baked in. Inflationistas only argument is that they'll print it. They can't...this ain't Zimbabwe...deflation is baked in.
Nostrovia,
The call this time last week was for ~6 failures today.
Is that number still valid?
"FEWF...that can be pronounced..."
True, but FWF can be pronounced (sort of) as well. First thing that came to mind was "For the whifffff..." ala the immortal Dan Patrick. Seems fitting as well.
Do you think your planning would be easier if you were in the private sector?
but would anyone care to say something about one aspect the current and near term state of economic affairs?
The fed is conducting a new eCONomic experiment. We're combining the 1930s with the 1970s in hopes of generating prosperity.
Its called the "new (e)CONomy" and it will blow you and most everyone else away.
regarding the inflation / deflation question...if really care, deflation in near term, inflation mid and longterm, but really, if you asked me, I'd tell you unemployment will matter far more than whether bread costs 25 cents or 250 dollars. Unemployement.
Got milk?
Got a job?
--bh
There are no failures in Utopian States of AmerAnglica! We are only temporarily or extra-temporarily success impaired. Once we harness and allocate the mechanisms of trade, currency, all productive output (does it exist anymore?), goodwill, situational ethics, good'n'evil of all society to our purposes we can engineer ANY outcome. There are no absolutes. There is no clear equity/debt division. In fact, once we swap all public & private equity for debt globally, we will wave a magic wand and make it all go away. Make everything better.
There will be no suffering, no failure, no stigmas, no discriminations, and surely no judgement.
The content of mens' souls is become us. The national motto has been changed. "In God We Trust" is seen as a declaration of weakness and psychological dependency. That is unlawful.
From now on, we are, Godz'r'us. Weeze dah dispensers of all good, evil, and material comfort.
"Thank God I'm only watching the game, controlling it
"I don't see you guys rating
The kind of mate I'm contemplating
I'd let you watch, I would invite you
But the queens we use would not excite you
So you better go back to your bars, your temples
Your massage parlors...
One night in Wall Street and the tough guys tumble
Can't be too careful with your company
I can feel the devil walking next to me"
You should be thanking your forebears for those layers of union "nonsense".
Mmmm...calls on C...does Vikram really have that much mojo with the Obama crowd?
lucifer writes:
...I suggest incinerating every employee of the rating agency cabal. This is not a time to start a trade war.. These f**kers have no real credibility anyway...
Sorry lucifer, you are wrong. To Americans they still have "credibility".
(American news media still frequently cite them.)
They just love liars (and perjurers), they can not do without them.
Sad, but that's America.
IMO, the first ones to get laid off will at least get their full severance package. Those that follow will have to take their laptops home.
Joanna,
"I have to plan months ahead for planting and livestock etc."
Unless you plan on not eating, I'm not sure how a self sufficincy plan really necessitates knowing the future with any certainty. Plan for the worst, and have nice fresh food for the rest of the year.
Nostrovia,
Misean,
On the DR side, I like to use the example of a class 5 zombie invasion, unfortunately this scenario was for levity. Apparently the zombie invasion has already taken place.
Time to failure-over the economy to the alternate site. sh*t, the alternate site is a 30,000 page word document...we're effed.
--bh
Anyone else think the Obama administration will be announcing some bank nationalizations sometime during market hours today? With the twin crap sandwiches of BAC and C becoming ever more fetid (and seemingly less likely to survive the weekend with every tick lower in the stock prices) and the stuff he said in his inaugural about making a change from our previous path, some sort of bold move is needed.
Thank you, Comrade Misean is Dope. You're right about the banks having already collapsed. I just haven't read about it in the local paper yet. Funny, my bank balance is still the same.
When you come right down to it I shouldn't have asked, because ignorance is bliss. Now I have to go find a tall building to jump out of.
Qimonda went down, eh?
That took way longer than I would have thought. They kept trying to sell themselves to various other DRAM players and nobdoy would bite. My assumption at the time is why buy them out when we can just wait for them to go BK and pay pennies on the $. Though I suspect that there isn't much market for wafer fabs at this point due to continued overcapacity.
There was an analyst report on cash burn rates for the DRAM houses that I read maybe a year ago. Ugly, ugly, ugly. Hynix, Micron and Qimonda were all in a world of hurt.
Anon,
Ben Stein is on my list for a sharp stick
and the stuff he said in his inaugural about making a change from our previous path, some sort of bold move is needed.
Assume Crash Positions!
I believe conjure was referring to an action plan written in human blood wtih a "SIGN HERE OR ELSE" sticker at the bottom. No pen, just a knife to sign with.
Western gov't's do not print money...they're CBs loan out new money. Nobody wants more debt.
True. But issuing Treasuries at zero percent interest is effectively printing.
As for nobody wanting debt, it looks to me like the government has an endless desire to borrow.
Inflation or deflation? I still say either is possible and both are likely. Prosperity has left the building though.
SOMALI PIRATES: TIMAY TO LEAD ONLINE COURSE ON ELECTRONIC TAX FILLINGS.
The nationalized bank could sponsor the local baseball squad. The National Nationals, of the National League. Beats the Citi Mets.
Angry Saver writes:
Western gov't's do not print money...they're CBs loan out new money. Nobody wants more debt.
True. But issuing Treasuries at zero percent interest is effectively printing.
Issuing Treasuries at 0% and then buying them by the FED at unlimited quantities ...so scary
clevis,
put another way, your bank balance is a statement you get every month. The fact that that piece of paper doesn't change the figures has little relation to your ability to pull all your money out at a time and place of your choosing. Think about it.
The market price is always realized after the commodity has been purchased at a given price. That's the price. That's the moment you know how much something is worth. same thing with your balance. You can prove it's o.k. by taking all of it.
Enjoy the 5-10 business days to get it.
--bh
"One-third of U.S. women recently surveyed by America's Research Group said they plan no clothing purchases--none--in 2009."
Oh, so now it is those damn Americans who are saving too much money!
supafly73,
I share the sentiment. Keep in mind, it is not saving. Two incomes are rapidly becoming 1 income. No saving. Net loss. Underemployment will be the new meme.
--bh
supafly73 writes:
"One-third of U.S. women recently surveyed by America's Research Group said they plan no clothing purchases--none--in 2009."
One third of U.S. women NUDE? I can't wait, it will be a better world
NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE EASES TEMPORARILY ITS MINIMUM GLOBAL
marketcapitalization standard for listed companies to $15 million
Business finance news - currency market news - online UK currency markets - financial news - Interactive Investor
LMAO
Johnny Mustardseed,
With all due respect, it depends on which 1/3. This could be a much worse world.
--bh
bro 'o clevis:
More on inflation/deflation, and a solid read at that:
Cassandra Does Tokyo: Inflation v. Deflation
Comments mostly worth it, too.
bh,
Level 5, huh...Well shoot for the head, and don't miss.
ROFL.
Mr. Sparkle,
Thanks for the Q info.
A link for those interested.
EETimes.com - Analysis: Qimonda won't be the only shakeout victim
Nostrovia,
I posted a short entry that I am hoping a few here might read. It is on another blog. Just follow the url. It is on virtual communities. Nothing economic. Yet my time here sparked it.
Thanks.
I could easily go a year without buying any more clothes, except pantyhose. 1/3 nude of all ages and varieties would give the males some idea of what actual women look like.
Goes for men too.
Zombie Banks explains Night of the Living TED.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP%3AIND
You just can't take this index to mean anything at this point.
I have to work today so I have to watch the meltdown on CNBC at work. Save some disaster porn for me this afternoon. I think it'll be a pizza night...
Night of the Living Ted.
Phrase of the day.
Currencies and T Bonds are MOVIN'. Remember just a few weeks ago when the 30 year was under 3?
HMMMMM
So, what are the smaller banks investing in that could actually provide a return?
bh,
Night of the Living TED...And I've been floundering around for something this am...Good one...
Need More Coffay!
Nostrovia,
You just can't take this index to mean anything at this point.
Probably a more relevant index at this point:
T-Bond Mar 2009
CNBC at work will really depress your customers, Kristina. Smart move. Get 'em drinkin' earlier and deeper.
Shrewd, puppet master of the self medicators.
Guiseppe, you're onto my game...
Wow, cliff diving so early?
How did that go in The Godfather?
'Either you signature or your brains is going to be on that contract.'
I worked at a small bank in '05, and can confirm that the 'smart guys' were all pushing us to loan for CRE.
The more conservative move was to invest with munis
I expect more headlines like this, only the dates will change. the question will be for U.S. is whether or not we surpass 1930s for 1870s...after that I think we have to look at what sypholis did to the naitive americans...
--bh
U.K. Economy Shrinks Most Since 1980, in Recession
U.K. Economy Shrinks Most Since 1980, in Recession (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
Munis, Clay?
Somehow that doesn't sound too good just now.
Nova anonymity is a safety feature. They used it regularly during the American Revolution. As for virtual communities, they are a vast improvement over letter writing technology, but feel free to stick with paper. You may be even more insulated, however.
Or headlines like "Texas-sized astroid stikes earth, 10% of life survives!"
--bh
"So, what are the smaller banks investing in that could actually provide a return?"
Lobbyists.
Comrade Misean- the one thing that might help Micron is that Intel seems to despise Samsung. Intel has some history of investing in its vendors - it threw Nikon some cash and then has a JV with Micron for flash memory. This could help Micron out for a while but it is an ugly biz to be in.
ac,
Rejigger it like this:
INO Futures and Commodities - Interest Rates - T-BONDS Mar 2010 (E) (CBOT:ZB.H10.E) Price Chart and Quote
Rather frightening actually.
Nostrovia,
MarketWatch.com
Chinese government worries about social unrest
Senior official says mass unemployment poses challenge for government
Slighty Ot: Friends of mine stopped making their house payments over a year ago. The house Just Now showed up in the local fishwrap as a Notice of Default, a year later. Does this mean the bank has been sitting on (hiding) this bad loan from inquiring minds, and, if so, how many more are they not reporting? What a bunch of scumbags!
haloscan is rotten balky this morning.
Mr. Sparkle,
"This could help Micron out for a while but it is an ugly biz to be in."
Yes. Buy DRAM and other solid state memory now.
I've seen 4 gig twin packs going for under $40...not super fast timing, but good brand...Crucial.
Nostrovia,
DOW down roughly 10% for Jan. Only eleven months to go...
@Guiseppe de Egypto:
+1 for the 'Chess' reference.
burnside,
"haloscan is rotten balky this morning."
As opposed to extremely dodgy...Yes.
Nostrovia,
What's the expression? There's never been a better time to bleed and die?
--bh
"With all due respect, it depends on which 1/3. This could be a much worse world."
With those new small(ish) Fiat Chrysler Panta 500 autos with 150 mpg most American women will be soon lean (but still really mean
Judd Gregg was on the news TODAY saying we need more TARP money for refinancing to stop declining home prices. Today, he thinks he's going to stop home prices from returning to historical norms.
I guess in the short term, it will work. All we need to do is run up a deficit and stifle productive and innovative elements of the economy.
ova,
I read your piece on networks. I don't agree that we, as a country, are becoming as hollow as corporations. I'd say the difference between here and a corporation is the free flow of information. Whereas a company would charge you for advice, people here give it free. Companies hoard patents, use proprietary technology, and keep things in house so that any growth will come from the small base of employees at the firm. Here, information is free. It is possible that the internet is hollowing out American companies, but I think the change it will bring on will be beneficial.
Re: Chinese New Year
We have some bond auctions coming on Monday, while China is on holiday all week. Anyone know if this will affect our bond auctions?
Mkk has 7 handle.
I remember those Panda ads, supafly.
The thing was pink, and the lady was large - like something out of 'Juliette of the Spirits' large.
"Does this mean the bank has been sitting on (hiding) this bad loan from inquiring minds, and, if so, how many more are they not reporting? What a bunch of scumbags!"
Hangtown | 01.23.09 - 9:46 am | #
Hangtown,
Around here it is a combination of the banks and the courts being backed up. A guy here at work was told by his BK lawyer that if it wasn't on the beach most banks wouldn't even look at him for 2 years. Possibly longer if he kept the place up. Heck,even a simple eviction that I used to do in 35 days is going on 4-5 months in Cape Coral...
Chris
General Electric's forecast is a pipe dream. Way too optimistic. GE is going to get crushed on multiple fronts.
GE carrying 95 billion in goodwill. Gee.
No. GTE.
Chinese New Year:
Year of the Fried Panda?
Will we finally stay under 8k? The PPT have been defending it tooth and nail.
Cobra--yeah, but that is a non judicial foreclosure state, I think. Don't need the Courts.
Was at Court with a foreclose Plaintiff (for once). Super slow; debtor filed bk, got kicked out. Court lost my first reinstatement order etc, etc. So I went and got a receiver appointed. Commercial Property.
Heard a bunch of sad, depressing stories of people in early 60s losing pretty much everything due to formerly prosperous businesses falling off the cliff.
And as per last thread, yeah, I have some formerly very prosperous clients who lived off credit cards for a year or more, 'cause business fell off cliff/lost money in fraud, thought things would turn around, since they always had previously. Now have lost it all.
"Clay Davis"
Love the wire reference. And old Clay did outmanuever and survive everybody.
Don't even know where they are going to live after foreclosures are done.
Thing is, it's easy to start living rich, and hard to live poor after you have lived rich.
1 currency sooner [yogi](Good) writes:
\tDo you think your planning would be easier if you were in the private sector?
\t 1 currency sooner [yogi] | \t \t \t \t01.23.09 - 9:14 am | #
1 currency sooner [yogi] | 01.23.09 - 9:14 am | #
If I were in the private sector, I'd have been laid off months ago....
Shiiiiiit... Love the Wire. Sorry... OT. Now back to your regularly scheduled disaster porn. Question of the day is; Will the UK go the way of Iceland? Go!!
Thing is, it's easy to start living rich, and hard to live poor after you have lived rich.
-lawyerliz
As a twenty-something, I haven't gotten much past college level subsistence.
Comrade Misean is Dope(Very Good) writes:
\tJoanna,
"I have to plan months ahead for planting and livestock etc."
Unless you plan on not eating, I'm not sure how a self sufficincy plan really necessitates knowing the future with any certainty. Plan for the worst, and have nice fresh food for the rest of the year.
Nostrovia,
\t Comrade Misean is Dope | \t \t \tHomepage | \t01.23.09 - 9:17 am | #
Comrade Misean is Dope | Homepage | 01.23.09 - 9:17 am | #
I always try to have a variety of options to choose from, planning wise. Bend, not break.
And I meant no disrespect to unions. I come from blue collar peeps and enjoy having certain protections. But interpreting some of the contract lingo gets trying...
"Don't even know where they are going to live after foreclosures are done."
It's this kind of anecdote that keeps people from buying clothing, cars, whatever. As dryfly noted,
enough anecdotes add up to data.
So get involved with your union and don't rely on others to fight for you. (I was a state union rep. , got no perks and complaints from all sides. But I'm glad I did it.)
These are people who had a net worth of a coupla mill at one point. That I know for sure. 'Way, 'way, richer than me. Now my house is paid off. And they are in foreclosure.
blue horseshoe says up to 6 bank failures today.
Nonetheless, in December OneUnited got a $12 million injection from the Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. One apparent factor: the intercession of Rep. Barney Frank, the powerful head of the House Financial Services Committee.
Mr. Frank, by his own account, wrote into the TARP bill a provision specifically aimed at helping this particular home-state bank. And later, he acknowledges, he spoke to regulators urging that OneUnited be considered for a cash injection.
Political Interference Seen in Bank Bailout Decisions - WSJ.com
Friends of Barney. The US government is corrupt as hell.
The market is actually closed.
PPT won't let the market fall below 8K and investors won't bet beyond 8.5K.
Instead of shutting the markets down we are being asked to invest in a zombie market.
Hub is starting to save up to buy a car to replace the 11 year old Saturn. I don't know if he plans to save the whole thing. I do think if he saves for a year, he will get an excellent buy on a car which has been sitting around for a year. Point is, he would have just gone and bought one, formerly.
REBear,
One correction, we are not being asked to invest in a zombie market.
Man, I've got this sudden appetite for brains...
And of course the language of injection...can we also free-base the financial market, snort liquidity, lick a tab of solvency?
Obama is the new Gorbachev!
cluborlov.blogspot.com
lol, blackhat. that sounds like fun!
"Heard a bunch of sad, depressing stories of people in early 60s losing pretty much everything due to formerly prosperous businesses falling off the cliff."
lawyerliz | 01.23.09 - 10:02 am | #
liz,
My mom has a group of older ladies she sews with a couple of times a week. She personally knows of 5-6 in the group that took every penny out of their house and spent it. They all had tiny/no payments. The thought was to sell and downsize later...
A bunch of these older couples are gonna end up homeless. You know what,this is gonna sound cruel,I don't care. I feel for the people who lost jobs,etc. Not for the people who were just stupid. And there were a bunch...
Chris
One Bloomberg, Jim Rogers says UK is finished because it can't maintain its current account deficit. Opponent says that British have "pop music" to export.
haloscan is tempetuous this morning...
blackhat,
OK we have not been 'asked' yet
One wonders why a Chinese gov't official would voice this concern publicly. Is this their way of telling the new admin to stop with the "manipulation" talk by saying they have their own problems to deal with?
REBear,
I just hear the sound of Biff: You know you want it...you want me to give it to you...
/shutter.
ick
Social unrest in China being told by Goverment, NOT PASSING MY SMELL TEST.
What was in their heads?
Some was herd mentality. The manager of my former ofc building, said she tried to persuade her husband to heloc their house so they could go on cruises, live rich 'cause everyone else was. He wouldn't so now they just have their relatively small first mtg, which they can well afford.
The only thing that was in her head was I want to live rich like everybody else. And she is not a stupid woman. Just herding, just herding.
ille_vir,
I don't have a problem with what China said. Geithner said, "China is a manipulator". China responded, "We'll pretend you didn't really mean that". If Geithner and Obama can blab in public, China can too.
Okay I swear I just saw an article about a Chinese gov't official expressing concern over unrest, and now it's gone. Haloscan is whacked this morning.
Oh never mind it's there. LOL
Sometimes haloscans seems not working for me, but working for everyone else. Today, its running fine for me, but not others.
Can this be?
only 2 currencies are UP at the moment: the USD and Gold.
IMHO, the USD is up because there is isn't enought Gold for investors to seen haven in
of course, this being a deflationist board, no one will agree with me
...I want to live rich like everybody else. And she is not a stupid woman.
lawyerliz | 01.23.09 - 10:20 am | #
-----
Yes, she was stupid. If she honestly wanted to live it large while her husband wanted to live within their means, why is she not stupid? It isn't like she would not have known that it was funny money that would go out with the next tide. God bless her spouse for having the spine and confidence to save her in spite of herself.
"Junior, if everyone was jumping off bridge, would you jump too?"
lawyerliz | 01.23.09 - 10:20 am | #
liz,
Here is a good story for you. Guy who delivers our batteries. Him and his wife saved up about 10K. They had an older home in a high end hood and didn't refi and pull any money out. Still have a 250.00 payment. 450.00 with taxes and insurance.
They took the 10K in 2001 and started a laundromat. They never spent any profits,ever. He just bought the entire strip mall the laundry is in.
For cash.
Now they might break down and buy a beach house. He tells me the best part is now having cash while his friends lived it up over the last few years and don't have a pot to piss in...
Chris
I'm old, grandparents from England, would love to hang out in English Garden eating my tea biscuits...In US dollars what do I need a month to do this? Would much rather go to England than Cuba or Mexico.
This robbing of The US taxpayer to keep The Goverment in power and the Bankers as the elite has just worn me out, and feel future generations have no hope.
manja,
I'm on the fence wrt gold now. With everyone losing his/her job, who will want to spend ~$900 for an ounce of metal? Will people be willing to spend $2000, $3000, for an ounce a year from now?
The other side of the coin is official fund flows. American citizens could be irrelevant should another country decide to make a big move. But most other countries are having their own hard times, so will they pledge to by more metal? Or will they try to stimulate their own economies.
Lastly, gold is up >300% since 2001. Not that it couldn't go higher, but how high is high enough?
of course, this being a deflationist board, no one will agree with me
manja_cake | 01.23.09 - 10:23 am | #
-----
I'm not a "deflationist" per se. I just don't see when the dikes will break and we will have the increase of velocity to mirror the decrease we had in velocity. If something happens and we go from 10-200MPH in 3 months, I'll be the first inflationista proudly, but we aren't there yet. However, we are in the progress of peeling our collective hides off of the windshield because of that nasty 200-10MPH breaking...
Thank you all for your kind replies.
I think I am trying to figure out a survival strategy. Where to put the time, and what to do.
At my age, and with my past, all I know is to do something physical - tangible.
England? What what?
Yes, my entire family will probably go down the tubes because they wanted to live like they were making money.
There was a reason why there were only one or two neighborhoods with big houses. There was a reason why people used lay-away.
In my office there are admin staff with $300 handbags and $100 sun glasses.
link
Fannie, Freddie, FHLBs Face New Requirements, Lockhart Says
Washington-based Fannie and McLean, Virginia-based Freddie, the two largest sources of mortgage money in the U.S., were placed under federal control in September after regulators said the two were at risk of failing. The Treasury Department, which pledged as much as $100 billion for each company to keep them solvent, pumped $13.8 billion into Freddie in November.
They will be reporting numbers in mid- to late-February and, yes, I think everybody would expect that there would be a draw on Treasury, Lockhart said of the prospect that one or both of the companies will need federal aid after they announce fourth-quarter earnings.
Tarp ETF = 1 mustard seed,
Joanna: This is for you...
Murray McMurray HATCHERY
A friend of mine worked for the mcMurray Hatchery for years. Says they're a really good company. We've also got a great heirloom seed company in Decorah, IA. Working to save the old breeds in Ready Roundup country.
Nova...I see relatives and workers getting manicuries that would buy groceries for a week and wonder the logic.
A friend 30 years ago was a Ford Dealer and I would sit around and ask each other what would happen to the generation he and I was raising if/when things went bust.
Don't know about him but mine are back on the teet.
Me and their Daddy will probably end up going somewhere and hiding from them.
\tTarp ETF = 1 mustard seed,
graingod | 01.23.09 - 10:34 am | #
What is the recent flurry of mustard seed refs?
(In vineyards, mustard is planted to add nutrients back to the soil. The mustard festival in CA is most excellent.)
At my age, and with my past, all I know is to do something physical - tangible.
--nova
I feel like I'm wasting my life right now, and likewise don't know what to do. What a malaise. I feel like I can't make a decision right now because the rules keep changing and visibility sucks. I've tried to stay above it though in a zen kind of way, and pretend that I'm on vacation. I still have a job, but it is commission based, and the commissions have sucked lately.
One idea I have had is to create an athletic league on the city level. Normal people play after work. Pro sports are not what sport is about. It would help with obesity and inactivity too. Right now most leagues are limited to a certain subset of the population, are poorly organized, or not easily accessible. Something more easily accessible would be nice. Also, exercise relieves stress, and would hopefully give people a positive outlet to vent their frustrations so they don't turn to violence. In light of what has happened, I have tried to think about what our society should look like going forward. And I'm rambling.
manja_cake writes:
only 2 currencies are UP at the moment: the USD and Gold.
IMHO, the USD is up because there is isn't enought Gold for investors to seen haven in
of course, this being a deflationist board, no one will agree with me
manja_cake | 01.23.09 - 10:23 am | #
Oh, I agree completely. Deflation reigns until it doesn't. 5 or 10 Ounces may get me and mine a nice little farm, in say England, or Costa Rica. I care less about dollar/gold, I care about undecided currency/gold.
Its all relative to perspective. I just don't have and Americentric perspective.
Liz,
Regarding haloscan or any other internet thing that bothers, start by clearing out your history and cookies. After that, you're on your own because I don't know much.
Liz,
Try closing your haloscan and CR. Then restart them. I read through the posts again and ones that I didn't see pop up like easter eggs.
I understand the velocity arguement. I know alot of the recent 8-10% increase in money supply is sitting in banks' reserves - that fact doesn't give me any comfort as it does to the avg. deflationist. Bankers are the most blood thirsty profit lusting crowd there is, and if anyone understands the mechanics of monetary growth it's them, I predict the second they consider money growth to be excessive, they will deploy it in a tidal-wave action, not via loans to joe plumber, but into the commodity markets, esp. gold - it will be a parabolic wall spike, the opportunity for the little guy to protect themselves will thereafter be missed.
If you're using cr companion you must disable Google toolbar.
ova(Very Good) writes:
Yes, my entire family will probably go down the tubes because they wanted to live like they were making money.
Hard to watch isn't it? I'm trying to work out what supportive looks like when they externalize the blame (and then ask for help.)
s0mebody | 01.23.09 - 10:43 am
No, good ideas.
Commissions, Yeah, I can imagine. I got 2 people in my family living off them. Or were living off them.
Hard to watch isn't it? I'm trying to work out what supportive looks like when they externalize the blame (and then ask for help.)
Lisa | 01.23.09 - 10:50 am
My wife and I were talking about that this morning. They may be family but for the most part they were assholes about their supposed wealth.
New Thread: GE: "2009 to be extremely difficult" ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
"supafly73 writes:
"One-third of U.S. women recently surveyed by America's Research Group said they plan no clothing purchases--none--in 2009."
I guess they would rather buy chocolate. Chocolate calms women, but makes them fat. When they are fat, buying clothes depresses them, so, in order to not be depressed, they will not buy clothes this year. Interestingly, another 1/3, only plan on buying clothes from Frederick's of Hollywood since they plan on becoming prostitutes or strippers in 2009.
s0mebody,
after being laid off in 1995 at 54, my career options were limited in CA...Started my own business, financed by internal cash flow and savings...Shut it down last Nov...could not cover my fixed costs...
Thought about different professions (previously in commercial insurance)...
Last year been reading math and science texts...and attempting to relearn somethings studied over 40 years ago...may be my future will be a plumber or electrician...
ew thread
"They may be family but for the most part they were assholes......"
...part of moving here was the realization of TEOTWAWKI. Part of that included having to deal with family good AND bad that didn't have the sense enough to get in out of the rain. There's now calm inside my heart: The stupid relatives get smaller trailers!
\tIf you're using cr companion you must disable Google toolbar.
1 currency sooner [yogi] | 01.23.09 - 10:49 am | #
The update to CRcompanion 1.08 fixed that for me.
Paradigm Lost....
Thanks for the Hatchery Link......fantastic
Cobradriver(Excellent) writes:
I feel for the people who lost jobs,etc. Not for the people who were just stupid. And there were a bunch...
It's worth feeling for them, if only for this reason -- they don't know how stupid they are. They did everything the gvt, media and their society said was right and got raped as a result. That's a very disappointed person. People like that join millenial cults.
Better to put them on the dole and try to teach them common sense than fight them when they turn into irregular infantry. Just sayin'.
People with nothing to lose and everybody but themselves to blame are a very dangerous thing in large numbers.
".....are a very dangerous thing in large numbers."
Exactamente, CBR
Cobradriver - Good story!
Here is another: The FP I have had for years is also very careful w/ money and does not live beyond his means. About 20 years ago he started buying small lunch/coffee shops (you know those hole-in-wall places that serve mainly a rushed breakfast crowd and a take-away lunch crowd). I visited the first one he opened and thought he was a bit crazy (given that he had multiple degrees and a six figue income).
But his business model was unique for the market and the times: Keep it local - cant look like a chain aka Starbucks and ensure it looks like a Ma&Pa operation. He gives quarterly profit sharing to each "Owner/Manager" to the tune of 25% on top of a fair salary. The rest of the profits get set aside for another place to open another business. After 20 years, he has 37 "Ma&Pa" locations in three cities where he owns the location, no debt and I could not even guess the cash flow. He has never had one close and as of last September, he was still driving the Ford Escort he bought in 1983 and still prefers public transportation. The only standard offerings in all location is a flat $1.00 lunch/breakfasts for police and firefighters (whatever they want) and free bottled water for bike couriers.
Barley
Small businesses done right with no borrowed money can do fantastic. If you work a position in it 30%+ profit is possible.
As somebody pointed out, that might be a mixed blessing. We (us men too) are pretty fat on average.
This is another hidden benefit of a more public transport+walkabity society (or another condemnation of our sprawl-mall lifestyle): Much, much better tushes, and that includes right thru middle age.
Dallas-area homebuilders suspend operations, leave buyers in the lurch |
News for Dallas, Texas | Dallas Morning News
| Latest News
Dallas-area homebuilders suspend operations, leave buyers in the lurch
Even good borrowers may face foreclosure soon |
News for Dallas, Texas | Dallas Morning News
| Steve Brown | Real Estate | Business Columnist | Dallas Morning News
Even good borrowers may face foreclosure soo
i can't still figure out why banking and MBA's weren't first tested on mice
Elvis' infantile misogynistic comments add nothing to the quality of this blog, other than to degrade it.
Sounds like more business will be headed to banks with small C&D books.
Any good short candidates?