It sounds to me like inefficiencies in the data collection and reporting process. The system has never had to deal with things changing this fast before, so not surprising that reporting is lagging.
The owner of the condo that I rent hasn't made a payment in thirteen months. The default judgment was entered last September, and the 'sale on the courthouse steps' is usually scheduled at that time for four two six weeks later - nothing yet. Similar situation with quite a few other units in the complex (it's aan apartment conversion).
So, yes, there's a substantial 'ghost inventory' that exists, and is growing day by day.
And right after the "ghost" inventory is the ectoplasmic inventory-- people waiting for the market to stabilize before putting the house on the market.
Will California hit a U3 rate of over 15% by June 21? Combine that with unreported illegal immigrants losing their jobs.. and by summer, the real U6 is gonna feel like GD1.
The scary thing about this decline in housing is that no past bubble has had a V shaped recovery. Once the rate of decline slows it will drag out. It will take years to grind thru all this inventory.
These problems are likely to be with us for years....
I know of countless REOs not on the market. I also know of countless properties which are in default and which should have gone into foreclosure by now, but have not. Silicon Valley, BTW.
Cut prices until they sell, even if that means $10,000 for something that sold for $500,000 in 2005.
We're going to bill the public for the bad mortgage debt anyhow.
It makes sense for people to own and care for those houses.
Given the economic environment that means insanely low prices - like 90% haircut insane - but we built places for people to live in and that's what they should be used for.
Not some kind of financial asset manipulation machinery.
I am renting a house right now in Redwood City, CA. Owner wanted to sell it 6 months ago, but after no interest she decided to rent to me. At the peak this house was appraised for $1.8M. Today I supect it would be listed at $1.5M. In my opinion it would not sell for more than $1M today. The more time that passes, the more value will be lost.
I feel lazy. I made this comment yesterday under housing starts. It still reamins true one day later and beyond. The shadow inventory problem is a direct result of overbuilding during the bubble:
"When you build 4M too many homes during the bubble and new home demand is roughly 450k annually right now and falling, it takes a long time to absorb the excess (you do the math). No new homes are needed and the ones being built are just adding to the glut. I recommend bulldozing."
I'm in the LA burbs, and there are 8 obviously long term vacant, not for sale homes within a few blocks. One is boarded up. Another is boarded up and the yard has a rental chainlink fence. The others have dead lawns and you can tell no one lives there.
I have looked at some bank REO homes in expensive areas where it took 18-24 months from first default notice to listing it for sale.
Of the REOs I've looked at, there haven't been any trashed places with no plumbing or wiring. Some were neglected. Several were in excellent condition because the prior owner had tried to sell before the foreclosure.
The house next to me was foreclosed in Feb 08. Bank sat on it for 6 months. Then listed it (no offers as the listing price was market top). In early Nov they auctioned it. The winning bid was 68% of the offer price. Way too high in my opinion. The bank refused to go to settlement. The house sits still. BTW all last winter and all summer there was no power on and thus no heat or AC. Clear evidence of leaks, mold and pests.
When the final breakdown comes I am going to move my farm workers into it and plow up the fields and plant another 5 acres of vegetables.
ac writes:
The solution is always and forever the same: Cut prices until they sell, even if that means $10,000 for something that sold for $500,000 in 2005. We're going to bill the public for the bad mortgage debt anyhow. It makes sense for people to own and care for those houses."
I can actually see the gummit doing this-- give houses away as a bribe to stop the rioting.
The solution is always and forever the same: Cut prices until they sell, even if that means $10,000 for something that sold for $500,000 in 2005. We're going to bill the public for the bad mortgage debt anyhow. It makes sense for people to own and care for those houses."
I can actually see the gummit doing this-- give houses away as a bribe to stop the rioting.
Don't give them away - auction them off, maybe with the stipulation that they can't be bought by institutions or people who don't plan to make them their primary residence.
I predict banks inquiring to neighbors of the houses in the worst condition. "How would you like to have a much bigger yard?" some investor guy | 01.23.09 - 3:46 pm | #
That's an interesting angle. The banks will never get around to it, but if you just tear down the fence ...
You know, BofA could pay next year's bonuses to Merrill employees with illiquid MBS, and Countrywide bonuses with vacant homes. "Your company created this mess. You figure out how to get money from it."
Oh, and the vacant houses and MBS will be awarded at the face value of the matching loans or securities.
"Don't give them away - auction them off, maybe with the stipulation that they can't be bought by institutions or people who don't plan to make them their primary residence.
ac | 01.23.09 - 3:48 pm"
If everybody loses their job and credit cards, there's no cash, therefore no market. The Feds could force the banks to give the houses to the cities, the cities hold a "dollar sale" like in Baltimore back in the '70's. Worked then, for a while.
scone(Unrated) writes: \t"Don't give them away - auction them off, maybe with the stipulation that they can't be bought by institutions or people who don't plan to make them their primary residence. ac | 01.23.09 - 3:48 pm"
If everybody loses their job and credit cards, there's no cash, therefore no market. The Feds could force the banks to give the houses to the cities, the cities hold a "dollar sale" like in Baltimore back in the '70's. Worked then, for a while. \t scone | \t \t \t \t01.23.09 - 3:52 pm | # scone | 01.23.09 - 3:52 pm | #
Don't give'm away, don't auction them; tear them down instead. Many home in places like Detroit cost too much to refurbish, cost to much to heat, etc. Instead, tear them down and recycle what we can. It'll put folks to work de-building (humour) them, and put people to work re-building them. And it's cost less to operate them in the future.
Is it too late to make an REO Speedwagon joke? This is like the power ballad of foreclosures!
Margin Call of Cthulhu | 01.23.09 - 3:38 pm | #
And I can fight foreclosure anymore,
I've forgotten what I started fighting for,
And if I have to crawl upon the floor,
or crash at Broward Horne's,
Banker I can't foreclosure anymore.
Sooooo --- Why aren't the banks listing them? Why aren't they trying to sell them? Perhaps: 1. They are waiting for recovery. BUT by now, even the banks are predicting lower prices (see yesterdays COF presentation) 2. They don't want to realize the loss. If they don't sell, they don't lose. BUT that's an argument for an unrealistic ask price, not for withholding it from listing. 3. They're overwhelmed. BUT they can't be that overwhelmed. Sheesh, they already own the place, how much effort really is it to call the real estate dude/chick?
I think there's actually a few signs that things could be improving. If not improving, sentiment is getting so negative that we're beginning to reach a point where companies outperform expectations as seen with Google and Apple.
My expectation ratio predicted the decline in earnings in late 2007. For the first time in over 18 months I am beginning to see improvement. Ie. expectations are SO negative that companies could being to outperform going ahead....
Go to fidelityasap.com and register (it's free). You can see the Trustee sales being put off day after day after day. Lots of homes that havent been foreclosed on but have had NTS filed are sitting in the wings.
Actually, it's true in Florida. You have to send a notice the first year you move in and then pay taxes without anybody complaining about it for 7 years.
Then you can quiet title.
I actually did this once. I'm pretty sure the prior owner was dead, but was never able to track it down for sure.
Tonight I am attending the JPM Chase squash Tournament of Champions, at Grand Central Station. Last year it was the Bear Stearns Tournament of Champions. Before that it was the Lehman Brothers Tournament of Champions. Thanks to them I have a box. Just before the first serve I plan to yell out "88 trillion" in the direction of the JPM box and will try to snap a photo.
"
if it's in montclair, give PO'd in cali a shout, he's in the market.
Punditry | 01.23.09 - 3:30 pm | # "
Thanks for the kind thoughts but we're holding off for atleast one more year. It all comes down to the economy around here and everytime I think it can't get worse it gets worse again.
We just saw a nice Spanish Hacienda style house. On 1/4 acre in Claremeont right across from the tennis club. Last sold in 2006 for 1.25M, now on the market for 899k as a short-sale. Very good quality building from the 1920s, great foundation, great rooms.
Things are hosed and people are only just grasping it around here.
The next house over from my future bunk house is 7400 s ft and it has been empty for 30 months. Guy had a contract that fell through on it in 2005 for $2.5M. It is now listed at $1.4M (and it has had a good $150K in improvements put into it in the last 2 yrs). Not to mention that the pool serivce comes all summer, and the lawn service for the 5 acres of mowing once a week, a maid service once a month or so, and contractors to keep it fixed up, property mangement, taxes, etc. LOL I keep waiting for the insurance fire.
Only the shadow knows.... Yes, this is the dirty little secret held by the banks. For a number of reasons, thay are not hitting the market with their REOs...Yet
Actual inventory of unsold houses is probably 20-24 months, instead of the 10-11 months that are listed. The longer they wait, the more they will have. Once they open the floodgates,after realizing the market is only getting worse, we wil see massive declines.
Wait till the unemployment rate hits 10%. Historically housing has been hit after unemployment peaked, so the market still has to wrestle with that. I heard some "housing reached bottom" talk again today.
"there's no liquidity because the prices of existing housing stock is too high.
ac"
Funny. All you have to do to move property in most markets is underprice vs comparable homes.
The liquidity problem isn't with home buyers. It's with the sellers. They don't have enough money to cover the loss, or don't want to.
some investor guy
Yep. You've got this no bid situation at current prices, and really there shouldn't be bids on overpriced housing.
Whether or not I approve of nationalizing bad mortgage debt, if you're going to do that you might as well make the housing available to the public (since they're basically buying) on an individual basis as prices that won't result in default and are tolerable even in an economic depression.
"Don't give'm away, don't auction them; tear them down instead. Many home in places like Detroit cost too much to refurbish, cost to much to heat, etc. Instead, tear them down and recycle what we can. It'll put folks to work de-building (humour) them, and put people to work re-building them. And it's cost less to operate them in the future.
xxxxx | 01.23.09 - 3:57 pm"
That actually costs a lot of money, and who gets the contracts, possible looting, land fill issues, etc. They thought of that in Baltimore, but went to the dollar house program because it was the cheapest. Since people were often illegally occupying the houses, it was cheaper in police costs, too. Call it "squat to own."
I wonder about how realtytrak counts these. There are surely lots of REOs that are pending but not yet sold (they are the only thing selling) So they would still be owned by the bank but not active MLS listings.
I think the bigger number is the "zombie" inventory- currently owned by a "homeowner" who has no intention of making another payment, but the bank is still trying to prevent a foreclosure or just too busy to care.
Then their are the homeowners who want to make a payment and stay, but can't afford it any longer. The banks probably won't even attempt foreclosure until every hope for squeezing more blood from those stones is lost.
Anecdotally, the shadow inventory in my neighborhood (near northern NYC suburbs) is enormous.
There are so many people here who would like to get the $900,000 to $1.2 million that they still think their homes are worth, but know they probably can't.
This includes a lot of Boomers who had planned to sell about now, and also younger people who need to cash out equity just to pay the bills and get out from under heavy mortgages.
And it may be years before they can sell, because this market has only started its downward path. The only good news is...it's a lot cheaper to support a family out here (20 miles away) than in Manhattan. So, there's some faint hope that the market will be supported by strapped Manhatann families that have to downsize.
In some (fairly) nice neighborhoods with lots of for-sale signs, I've seen houses with lock-boxes on the doors, no for-sale sign, and a clunker parked in the driveway. I think the clunker is to make the house look habitated. Actually, it kind of works. But I wonder (assuming the supposition is correct), who's parking the clunker? The ex-owner? The bank? A neighbor?
Split close, dow down, spx up. Guess Maria needs to put the nighstand cowbow half into the closet. Maybe run it off a battery rather than full power-supply.
Over a year ago, I represented a foreclosee who insisted she could bring the mtg current. She had been foreclosured out by final Summary Judgment, but I filed what I told her was a hopeless motion to Set Aside. It was granted because the opposition didn't show up.
That was Jan 08 or maybe Dec 07. Nothing has happened. They could file something and get rid of her in 2-4 weeks, but the file has fallen into oblivion.
She's got a 2nd mtg, which she has been paying. I asked why and she had no answer. Well, she owes the 2nd too, and who am I to convince her to stop paying the 2nd.
So here we are, 13 months later, and even if they filed something tomorrow, she wouldn't be out for another couple of months.
Don't give'm away, don't auction them; tear them down instead. Many home in places like Detroit cost too much to refurbish, cost to much to heat, etc. Instead, tear them down and recycle what we can. It'll put folks to work de-building (humour) them, and put people to work re-building them. And it's cost less to operate them in the future.
xxxxx
Haha... well that was exactly what solved the problems we had during the Great Depression.
We engaged in a worldwide campaign to destroy the massive excess capacity created during the 1920s, now affectionately known as WWII.
But of that day and hour knoweth no man, no, not the angels of heaven Mish's Global etc.
There was a merchant in Bagdad who sent his servant to market to buy provisions and in a little while the servant came back, white and trembling, and said, Master, just now when I was in the marketplace I was jostled by a woman in the crowd and when I turned I saw it was Death that jostled me. She looked at me and made a threatening gesture, now, lend me your horse, and I will ride away from this city and avoid my fate. I will go to Samarra and there Death will not find me.
The merchant lent him his horse, and the servant mounted it, and he dug his spurs in its flanks and as fast as the horse could gallop he went.
Then the merchant went down to the marketplace and he saw me standing in the crowd and he came to me and said, Why did you make a threating getsture to my servant when you saw him this morning?
That was not a threatening gesture, I said, it was only a start of surprise. I was astonished to see him in Bagdad, for I had an appointment with him tonight in Samarra.
We engaged in a worldwide campaign to destroy the massive excess capacity created during the 1920s, now affectionately known as WWII. ac | 01.23.09 - 4:08 pm | #
OT: This is completely off-topic. You might have heard about the olympic athlete's village in Vancouver and the developer which used Fortress for financing. It seems the one media group CanWest which lost the broadcasting rights has had editorial direction to sensationalize it. So the developer got their rebuttal in through the rival newspaper chain. The one thing it doesn't have mentioned is that the City has recourse on the $250mn of the developer's assets
> > article pretty interesting and it touches on a lot of what goes in to development
If you don't know about the project, it's creating a new neighbourhood on reclaimed industrial land. The project covers 1/5th of the new neighbourhood's eventual size. $1.2bn to be spent, covers utilities, roads, seawall, parks, community centre, and other amenities which will also be used for the eventual development on the rest of the area.
$875bn for the athlete's village itself finalized contracts down to suppliers and sub-trades. 1,100 units. 750 market (luxury type), 120 subsidized, 230 public housing. There is small retail, and a couple anchor stores
City took 2 years after winning games in 2003 to award a bid that they required a lot of environmentally friendly and subsidized housing, eventually cutting back on the initial push for 33% public, 33% subsidized, 33% market housing (which the newly elected current council wants, and the new mayor made this whole thing into a big news story by blaming the last council of whom half are in his party. Trying to blame it on the old council so he doesn't half to be thrifty in his primary goal of spending on homeless)
They sold the land for $200mn, next closest bids were half that. Of which they got $67 million up front, rest to be paid on completion.
They would have done incredible if one idiot hadn't proposed to guarantee the loan to fortress last summer, who has since reneged on its deal for $750mn loan (+$50mn contingency) and only disbursed half that.
So the need for the City to borrow has now been used to rewrite the city charter, which has to be passed by the provincial legislature and the key bit is the rewrite will allow the city to borrow unlimited amounts (in the past needed an exemption from the province to pass a cap limit) that can be used for any pet projects in the future.
Finance, real estate, politics. Interesting but tiring
We engaged in a worldwide campaign to destroy the massive excess capacity created during the 1920s, now affectionately known as WWII.
ac | 01.23.09 - 4:08 pm | #
Yikes!! I never thought of it that way.
jus me
I actually got that idea from Mish's site.
But if you accept the Austrian thesis that excess capacity is the root cause of depression and deflation then it makes perfect sense that a global campaign of capacity destruction would be the one thing to really cure it.
Time and time again, the historical record seems to substantiate the Austrian viewpoint.
asl hearts lenin writes:
John Thain just said all's fair in greed and extortion.
I like Thain's idea of using TARP money for an office remodel. That furniture might be the only thing TARP money has been used for that will actually maintain some of its value.
"They could file something and get rid of her in 2-4 weeks, but the file has fallen into oblivion." - lawyerliz
I'm thinking the lender's Dogsbody in charge of this file has quietly ignored it. If Dogsbody's bosses knew just how many bad loans they really have, Dogsbody would lose his/her own job. So all the zillions of Dogsbody lenders are being very, very quiet, hunkered down, hoping to get TARPed and ZIRPed and otherwise have their asses saved by the Big O & Co.
Not a great strategy, but they don't have anything else.
Losr, you still there man? I wrote/type some info to you in the last tread, however the last tread is dead, cant retrive the posts. You basically stated that we were wimps for not trying to change American fiscal policy. You stated that you were 60 yrs old and did not want to eat cat food. Guess what, I fought the system so that you WOULD/WILL NOT have to revert to that measure. Sadly I failed.
Nonetheless, I got your back....I will try again, but I will need your help this time.
"But if you accept the Austrian thesis that excess capacity is the root cause of depression and deflation"
That's the symptom. The cause is EZ credit, allowing price signal distortion, thus making projects which are unprofitable, appear profitable, in the short run.
"a global campaign of capacity destruction would be the one thing to really cure it."
No Austrian would advocate this. Austrian's are heavily influenced by Say. This is the brojken window faslacy taken to it's logical conclusion. The destroyed resources were useful, and the loss of life is a loss that is unimaginable for the human race.
Based on the number of sad stories I have heard recently about late 50s, early 60s people that cat food thing is no joke. Except it should be dog food. Cat food has stuff in it that is good for cats, but not people.
if you accept the Austrian thesis that excess capacity is the root cause of depression and deflation then it makes perfect sense that a global campaign of capacity destruction would be the one thing to really cure it.
ac | 01.23.09 - 4:13 pm | #
Umm, err, in the technology sector, we refer to "innovation" as the thing that makes overcapacity obsolete, and sent to the junk heap. (incidentally a pleasant way of avoiding dividends and suckering, er "incentivizing" new investors)
Does the California unemployment rate of 9.3 exclude farm workers, which is possibly the worst sector ? Or are they just excluded from payroll counts, and the unemployment calculated a different way ?
Excluding farmworkers, California lost 78,200 jobs in December as employers sliced payrolls to deal with the slowing economy. Business Week Online > File Not Found
Overcapacity. Really, this is bizarre to me, tho no doubt true.
We get more efficient. Instead of prices going down, or everybody has to work less, and a glorious paradise on earth, we get a global disaster.
lawyerliz
Well the disaster occurs because all these people lent their wealth and their effort to creating this overcapacity, then they find out they invested in something that is not needed and yields no profits, so their investment or their loan is lost.
So people lose faith in lending and investing - that's what causes the disaster.
It's like if we built 10 Taco Bells for every man, woman, and child in America.
Life would seem grand for awhile until everybody realized they'd spent their lives doing something that has no value. Then they get the idea that it's best that they do nothing at all.
Umm, err, in the technology sector, we refer to "innovation" as the thing that makes overcapacity obsolete, and sent to the junk heap.
(incidentally a pleasant way of avoiding dividends and suckering, er "incentivizing" new investors)
jus me | 01.23.09 - 4:18 pm |
I know a bit about the technology sector myself.
But to use a previous analogy:
What innovation makes having 10 Taco Bells per capita viable?
ac,
I very much agree. The governments are now engaged in massive efforts to preserve and protect the existing systems of overcapacity. That doesn't look like a fruitful course, does it?
As a farmer I will tell you a little secret nbot commonly know about animal food. The legal requirements to sell say dog treats are MUCH more stringent than they are for selling people vegetables. Dog food may not taste great but it is safe food. It is a hold over from older times; animals are important. People are just....
Up 2/4ths of a trillion since Oct/Nov of 07 when I did my back of the envelope disaster calculation. And I am sure that they sold SOME reos in the interim and there are more foreclosures to go.
4 trill anybody?
By the way, Countrywide is especially hard to deal with, with regard to negotiating anything.
ac,
I very much agree. The governments are now engaged in massive efforts to preserve and protect the existing systems of overcapacity. That doesn't look like a fruitful course, does it?
wally
It's more of exactly what we've been doing for years now - wasting effort and resources by misusing them.
It is frightening to think there is a real possibility that the entire world economy could go into complete meltdown and famine kill millions. Yet Western - and British - commentators are cocooned in a warm comfort zone of infatuation with America's answer to Neil Kinnock. We should be long past applauding politicians of any hue: they got us into this mess. The best deserve a probationary opportunity to prove themselves, the worst should be in jail.
It is questionable whether the present political system can survive the coming crisis. Whatever the solution, teenage swooning sentimentality over a celebrity cult has no part in it. The most powerful nation on earth is confronting its worst economic crisis under the leadership of its most extremely liberal politician, who has virtually no experience of federal politics. That is not an opportunity but a catastrophe.
Dog food may not taste great but it is safe food. It is a hold over from older times; animals are important. People are just....
Wyoming | 01.23.09 - 4:24 pm | #
"Dog food may not taste great but it is safe food. It is a hold over from older times; animals are important. People are just...."
The other great thing about dog food is that you can get your weekly melamine intake the natural way rather than having to bother with using health-food supplements.
I try to eat dog food on Sunday or Monday so that I don't have to worry on Friday whether I got enough melamine for the week.
We've certainly come close to that in actual capacity utilization......
I can't help but think it was planned this way from the get go.
Ciao MS \t MS | \t \t \t \t01.23.09 - 4:25 pm | # Why do you think there was some plan? Could've been the actions of independent actors acting in what they perceived would be in their self-interest. Certainly, US real estate developers have proved their idiocy to us. I've read your posts for a while, and see that you're quite the intelligent observer. However, might you be expecting the players in this game to have something close to the intelligence you have? The simplest and most likely explanation is often idiocy and short-sightedness.
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
because someone is protecting their job for awhile, as suggested above
because they cut employees, and they are totally overwhelmed
because they would have to recognize there losses
because empty houses are actually worse than houses with people in them who aren't paying (this one has too much logic, and is probably just a side effect of the above)
Remember, there is no "they", no person who will personally be creamed for the additional loss, and no particular motivation to recognize or minimize losses. There is nothing at the other end to take responsibility
The employee who causes losses to be recognized with be blamed/fired and they know that.
LA TIMES:
Economic stimulus package has a potential windfall for California government. The state could receive $11 billion, enough to wipe out about 25% of its budget shortfall.
Governor Schwarzenegger remarked, "I am very pleased that Congress and President girly-arms are willing to extend help to the great state of Caulifornia."
"But if you accept the Austrian thesis that excess capacity is the root cause of depression and deflation"
That's the symptom. The cause is EZ credit, allowing price signal distortion, thus making projects which are unprofitable, appear profitable, in the short run.
"a global campaign of capacity destruction would be the one thing to really cure it."
No Austrian would advocate this. Austrian's are heavily influenced by Say. This is the brojken window faslacy taken to it's logical conclusion. The destroyed resources were useful, and the loss of life is a loss that is unimaginable for the human race.
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope
I would argue the easy credit leads to the excess capacity and supply which leads to the deflation and depression. Easy credit is the more ultimate cause; excess capacity and supply are more proximate causes that are direct results of the easy credit.
Also suggesting that war would "cure" excess capacity is not the same thing as advocating it.
I'm saying historical events are consistent with the theoretical framework.
Maybe "cure" is the wrong word if it implies that war is a preferable alternative.
scone writes:
"They could file something and get rid of her in 2-4 weeks, but the file has fallen into oblivion." - lawyerliz
I'm thinking the lender's Dogsbody in charge of this file has quietly ignored it. If Dogsbody's bosses knew just how many bad loans they really have, Dogsbody would lose his/her own job. So all the zillions of Dogsbody lenders are being very, very quiet, hunkered down, hoping to get TARPed and ZIRPed and otherwise have their asses saved by the Big O & Co.
Not a great strategy, but they don't have anything else.
scone | 01.23.09 - 4:14 pm | #
The bankers are scared shitless of losing their own jobs. They will avoid exposing their own weakness at all costs. The lying will get worse, hence financial sector cannot be valued. Banking stocks drop, bank fails anyway. Even relatively honest banks cannot be valued. Then TARP and ZIRP fail, FDIC can't keep up, etc. Total meltdown planetwide.
One other thing to mention: in some areas there has also been a backlog in the courts on foreclosure proceedings. So in addition to the loans for which foreclosure proceedings have not been initiated, you also have a whole class of loans for which they have started the foreclosure work but not yet even been able to get to the front of the line and in front of the bankruptcy judge.
Based on the number of sad stories I have heard recently about late 50s, early 60s people that cat food thing is no joke. Except it should be dog food. Cat food has stuff in it that is good for cats, but not people.
Bad choice. Best for people on a tight budget is staples like milk, potatoes, cabbage, rice, and bread, supplemented with smaller amounts of seasonal fruits and cheap meats. Pet food is a bad price for the nutrition you get. You can eat decent food quite cheaply in the US if you stick to healthy food, avoid processed stuff, and watch the prices.
Maybe municipalities inspecting empty houses and filling liens. Maybe banks no longer able to pay insurance or property taxes and losing houses to counties/ municipalities.
I have not been sent my new lease agreement yet - just a few days left in the lease period of one year - I'm wondering if the landlord is going to call it quits.
"Could've been the actions of independent actors acting in what they perceived would be in their self-interest"
Precisely my point......but in reality there is no real independence from this....think of it...could there really have been?
My point in a "plan" was that the powers that be KNEW this would be the end game hence they had a plan....they just counted on natural instincts of the the system they have provided and enabled to do just that.
Agreed, banks are just not foreclosing because they cannot keep up and do not want to have to report even more bad news. They hide all this inventory under the guise of trying to provide foreclosure assistance to the homeowners in default. I've got a friend who's done a walk away hoping to wash their hands of it ASAP, but they are continuing to pay the utilites and HOA fees. Its been sooo long since they stopped paying on the mortgage that the annual property tax payment is due!!! Thus the banks are also avoiding carrying costs by not foreclosing and taking possession!!
"Filing is one thing....recording it is entirely different. That's what is not being done (on a large scale)."
I believe it has been recorded. The neighbor on the other-side is a mortgage broker and is the one who gave me the above information from whatever public records he has access to.
This is a variation on the old shtick where you would wear your dirtiest, oldest clothes on the day you saw the welfare man.
The banks have zero motivation to move any of this inventory. They just want TARP cash, which utterly dwarfs any profitability they could hope for in the best of times. Moral hazard phase 4.
Next door to my little nest in Wisconsin my ex-neighbor's home has been sitting empty for over a year and taxes for both 2007 and 2008 are past due. Still haven't seen any foreclosure activity on the part of the city and county, but at least for now the place was "winterized" and just yesterday all the remaining belongings were either hauled off to the landfill or acquired by my wife as it's not the time of year for yard sales.
Humour me on this. Would it be possible for all those people who own their own modest homes outright to get a free upgrade to a newer and larger McMansion? Kind of like being bumped to first class, except with houses. It hardly seems fair that so many nice houses are either going to rot or are inhabited by virtual squatters when responsible homeowners are left out in the cold.
"Humour me on this. Would it be possible for all those people who own their own modest homes outright to get a free upgrade to a newer and larger McMansion?"
Thanks, but no thanks - the "high maintanence" lifestyle is about to be found out for what it really is, non-sustainable.
I have little doubt that loans are accurately marked in the books. The OCC was already having the regionals increase reserves on the stuff that was current 12 months ago. I imagine the reasoning they are making it to market are the more pedesterian ones: they only want so many with the realtors or the realtors only want to take so many; they are getting bogged down in procedures; and related to the last, not enough people with authority to make approvals at different points in the process.
I'm new to comments here, but I have question about Deeds In Lieu of Foreclosures? Just saw a report (on MSNBC I think) about banks agreeing just to take the deed and avoid the whole foreclosure process. Predictably the network had no data on how widespread the practice has become. How does this play into the foreclosure numbers, if at all?
Wyoming: SAme thing down the street from me, foreclosed , auction not accepted , sat vacant for 20 months, pipes freeze etc. This is in a Chi. suburb that has been fairly stable in regards to RE. German bank sitting on the property described. They have turned a bad situation into a disaster
Yo Montana: Forget about planting the veggies. Fill the bunkhouse full of illegals and plant five acres of dope, and if caught, blame it on the illegals. Its the American Way dude.
Re: Santa Maria versus Santa Barbara, you couldn't ask for two completely different towns demographically/culturally.
Santa Maria, average central coast ag town overrun by illegal aliens. Lots of crime, the town is being Mexicanized as the average lower/middle class indigenous population is slowly swamped by the influx of poor illiterate indios from Mexico. Infrastructure/housing in slow decline.
Santa Barbara: Upper class college town with lots of old and new money. Very expensive, not a huge ag base. Some illegal problems (e.g gangs, drugs), but not to compare to Santa Maria. The local pretty people (lke Oprah) are protected from such unpleasantness by all that lovely money.
The comments on this blog are starting to get into lazy groupthink. The flip side of supposed shadow inventory is of course buyers on the sidelines waiting for prices to fall further out of fear of paying too much for a major purchase. So one could just as easily claim there is shadow demand.
I have also heard anecdotes about sellers using short sales listing to buy time from their banks with no intention of actually selling. This would be false supply.
This blog is at its best analyzing historical data and charting them. This shadow inventory report is a fluff piece without any statistical basis.
" blah, blah...most extremely liberal politician...no national experience...blah, blah, blah...catastrophe...blah, blah, blah"
Hey Nova,
George "Armstrong Custer" Bush and Churchy Palin had a good laugh over that one.
Oh, and Herbert Hoover called. He realizes you neocons have been sharing it for 28 years, but he wants his dipsh*t hat back.
You can leave it on W's pig farm with the superfluous Pentagon spending, coffer-draining aggressive wars, privatized profit/socialized risk paradigm, your "welfare is for the rich" and "there's no such thing as a good regulation" centerfold pinups, and your economic recalcitrance.
Please wipe them off and unstick all the pages. That "conservative" odor devalues my ash heap.
I disagree with the notion that much of the ghost inventory is already listed as short sales. Which makes the situation all that much more dire.
There is no actual incentive for anyone to do a short sale over just waiting for the bank to foreclose. Hey, you get free rent for almost 12 months if you stay in the house without paying. Besides, a short sale does the same thing to your credit as a foreclosure, so what's the incentive to do a short sale? I think people have figured this out and are just waiting on the banks at this stage in the game.
They're coming...
They're here...
frist
frist is first after nemo
by the way nothing is still selling in taos....
On my block (SF East Bay), there are 3 REOs. None have "for sale" signs. None are in MLS.
Ghost Inventory... sounds like a job for Scooby Doo and those meddling kids.
and the last shall be first, not
Um, 5th?
Drop prices, drop! I am still renting!
It sounds to me like inefficiencies in the data collection and reporting process. The system has never had to deal with things changing this fast before, so not surprising that reporting is lagging.
Ghost real estate, and ghost bank solvency and ghost stimulus.
we're on track for a ghost recovery.
I'm in California, there is a house in my neighborhood that was foreclosed on over a year ago and still sits empty, no sign, no listing.
maybe we should fly drones over the burbs and just waste the suckers
Yes, they are here! You'll need this detector:
Nothing found for Node 2408
Who you gonna call?
Ghostbusters !!
Where is the foreclosure czar?
.
The owner of the condo that I rent hasn't made a payment in thirteen months. The default judgment was entered last September, and the 'sale on the courthouse steps' is usually scheduled at that time for four two six weeks later - nothing yet. Similar situation with quite a few other units in the complex (it's aan apartment conversion).
So, yes, there's a substantial 'ghost inventory' that exists, and is growing day by day.
On my block (SF East Bay), there are 3 REOs. None have "for sale" signs. None are in MLS.
jus me | 01.23.09 - 3:25 pm | #
if it's in montclair, give PO'd in cali a shout, he's in the market.
And right after the "ghost" inventory is the ectoplasmic inventory-- people waiting for the market to stabilize before putting the house on the market.
The real question is..
Will California hit a U3 rate of over 15% by June 21? Combine that with unreported illegal immigrants losing their jobs.. and by summer, the real U6 is gonna feel like GD1.
Ghost real estate, and ghost bank solvency and ghost stimulus.
we're on track for a ghost recovery.
Not to mention the withering incomes. Spooky.
The scary thing about this decline in housing is that no past bubble has had a V shaped recovery. Once the rate of decline slows it will drag out. It will take years to grind thru all this inventory.
These problems are likely to be with us for years....
It's only a shadow inventory until somebody turns on the lights...,
timmay to ppt: tarpy sends her love
and when there was no meat, we ate fowl and when there was no fowl, we ate crawdad and when there was no crawdad to be found, we ate sand.
Boocoodanode.
Shadows and ghosts is what fuel our economy!
The "ghost" inventory has been rumored in Los Angeles for at least a year. Allegedly banks are sitting on a huge pile of shadow inventory.
I haven't yet seen any proof, just rumors and anecdotes.
i'm drawin a line in teh sand
I know of countless REOs not on the market. I also know of countless properties which are in default and which should have gone into foreclosure by now, but have not. Silicon Valley, BTW.
Are you telling me "the list" is false?
so does this make the banks even more insolvent?
Increasing ghost inventory is good. Lots of ghosts would like to stop renting and finally put some spectral roots down.
Is it too late to make an REO Speedwagon joke? This is like the power ballad of foreclosures!
The solution is always and forever the same:
Cut prices until they sell, even if that means $10,000 for something that sold for $500,000 in 2005.
We're going to bill the public for the bad mortgage debt anyhow.
It makes sense for people to own and care for those houses.
Given the economic environment that means insanely low prices - like 90% haircut insane - but we built places for people to live in and that's what they should be used for.
Not some kind of financial asset manipulation machinery.
Liquidate. Liquidate. Liquidate.
it takes a twisted mind to make a REO Speedwagon joke
"elmer fudd writes:
so does this make the banks even more insolvent?"
Bingo! Give that man a cigar or coconut, according the choice.
I am renting a house right now in Redwood City, CA. Owner wanted to sell it 6 months ago, but after no interest she decided to rent to me. At the peak this house was appraised for $1.8M. Today I supect it would be listed at $1.5M. In my opinion it would not sell for more than $1M today. The more time that passes, the more value will be lost.
ac's channelin' that mellon guy or somethi
Gonna see Miss Liza
Goin ta Mississippi
ac's channelin' that mellon guy or somethin
He's my hero.
I feel lazy. I made this comment yesterday under housing starts. It still reamins true one day later and beyond. The shadow inventory problem is a direct result of overbuilding during the bubble:
"When you build 4M too many homes during the bubble and new home demand is roughly 450k annually right now and falling, it takes a long time to absorb the excess (you do the math). No new homes are needed and the ones being built are just adding to the glut. I recommend bulldozing."
Need to conjure up a few million "ghost buyers".
Obama has gotta put a program in place to mass-produce these bailout detectors. They are too cool.
But $1,500? No way!
The price has to come down for most people to afford one. Maybe Obama can give the biz to China and try to patch things up after yesterday.
I'm in the LA burbs, and there are 8 obviously long term vacant, not for sale homes within a few blocks. One is boarded up. Another is boarded up and the yard has a rental chainlink fence. The others have dead lawns and you can tell no one lives there.
I have looked at some bank REO homes in expensive areas where it took 18-24 months from first default notice to listing it for sale.
Of the REOs I've looked at, there haven't been any trashed places with no plumbing or wiring. Some were neglected. Several were in excellent condition because the prior owner had tried to sell before the foreclosure.
Oh, and some of them are now "sale or lease".
The house next to me was foreclosed in Feb 08. Bank sat on it for 6 months. Then listed it (no offers as the listing price was market top). In early Nov they auctioned it. The winning bid was 68% of the offer price. Way too high in my opinion. The bank refused to go to settlement. The house sits still. BTW all last winter and all summer there was no power on and thus no heat or AC. Clear evidence of leaks, mold and pests.
When the final breakdown comes I am going to move my farm workers into it and plow up the fields and plant another 5 acres of vegetables.
ac writes:
The solution is always and forever the same: Cut prices until they sell, even if that means $10,000 for something that sold for $500,000 in 2005. We're going to bill the public for the bad mortgage debt anyhow. It makes sense for people to own and care for those houses."
I can actually see the gummit doing this-- give houses away as a bribe to stop the rioting.
It appears the bomb cluster fu#ker will be called The Bacus Bill.
For those that have lost their jobs and have time on their hands, there will be money for those that know where to look and are vigalent.
OT: Dow 8K? What is the matter?
Is there some impediment to the Dow closing below 8K?
Is there some massive defense of 8K that I don't know about?
The solution is always and forever the same:
Cut prices until they sell,
ac | 01.23.09 - 3:39 pm | #
Uh, ac, the (immediate) problem isn't that the price is too high. It's that it's not even for sale.
"When the final breakdown comes I am going to move my farm workers into it and plow up the fields and plant another 5 acres of vegetables."
Doomers in flyover country?
In 2010, I predict banks inquiring to neighbors of the houses in the worst condition. "How would you like to have a much bigger yard?"
The solution is always and forever the same: Cut prices until they sell, even if that means $10,000 for something that sold for $500,000 in 2005. We're going to bill the public for the bad mortgage debt anyhow. It makes sense for people to own and care for those houses."
I can actually see the gummit doing this-- give houses away as a bribe to stop the rioting.
Don't give them away - auction them off, maybe with the stipulation that they can't be bought by institutions or people who don't plan to make them their primary residence.
Doomers in flyover country?
elmer fudd | 01.23.09 - 3:46 pm | #
Pardner I farm in Northern Virginia
I predict banks inquiring to neighbors of the houses in the worst condition. "How would you like to have a much bigger yard?"
some investor guy | 01.23.09 - 3:46 pm | #
That's an interesting angle. The banks will never get around to it, but if you just tear down the fence ...
Is there some massive defense of 8K that I don't know about? Mr. Beach
the stick save controls haven't worked too well lately, so we get this sort of choppy action when the market opens at 3 PM
You know, BofA could pay next year's bonuses to Merrill employees with illiquid MBS, and Countrywide bonuses with vacant homes. "Your company created this mess. You figure out how to get money from it."
Oh, and the vacant houses and MBS will be awarded at the face value of the matching loans or securities.
The solution is always and forever the same:
Cut prices until they sell,
ac | 01.23.09 - 3:39 pm | #
Uh, ac, the (immediate) problem isn't that the price is too high. It's that it's not even for sale.
jus me
Right. Because there's no liquidity because the prices of existing housing stock is too high.
by the time this crap is over, we will all have learned how to bend over and grab our ankles.
frist is first after nemo
taos | 01.23.09 - 3:24 pm | #
If only Frist were here . . . he could diagnose the economy by looking at a daily bloomberg chart online and viewing a tape of Kudlow's show.
I'm finding in my Fairfax County, VA neighborhood that most of the large, national bank repo's since September 08 have NOT been put up for sale.
There has been a small # of small local bank FC's coming back on the market, but very little major bank inventory.
This spring should be interesting. Unless the banks decide to hold on "until the market recovers" Ha!
Mish's Global etc.
Ghost REOs, shadow banking, zombie lending.
Call it what it is...DEAD. Dead as a coffin nail. Dead as Mao or Lenin but propped to the parading masses to maintain fragile confidence.
USA was pirate king of a motley global mob.
The King is dead, long live the king.
"Don't give them away - auction them off, maybe with the stipulation that they can't be bought by institutions or people who don't plan to make them their primary residence.
ac | 01.23.09 - 3:48 pm"
If everybody loses their job and credit cards, there's no cash, therefore no market. The Feds could force the banks to give the houses to the cities, the cities hold a "dollar sale" like in Baltimore back in the '70's. Worked then, for a while.
"there's no liquidity because the prices of existing housing stock is too high.
ac"
Funny. All you have to do to move property in most markets is underprice vs comparable homes.
The liquidity problem isn't with home buyers. It's with the sellers. They don't have enough money to cover the loss, or don't want to.
"Louie Sez writes:
by the time this crap is over, we will all have learned how to bend over and grab our ankles."
i liked the variant yesterday where someone suggested that you take out your wallet and bite on it
not sure what the ladies do
I would to get Jennifer Love Hewitt to talk to my ghosts.
1currencysooner than we think.
There is a lot of Mississippi Gals named Liza.
Nemo is now "pre-first". The real first is the one after nemo.
"by the time this crap is over, we will all have learned how to bend over and grab our ankles."
Greeks running out of tear gas and Americans out of lubricants?
If I move in, cut the grass and pay the delinquent taxes is it mine? I heard it on late night TV.
(Take the Money and Run)
scone(Unrated) writes:
\t"Don't give them away - auction them off, maybe with the stipulation that they can't be bought by institutions or people who don't plan to make them their primary residence.
ac | 01.23.09 - 3:48 pm"
If everybody loses their job and credit cards, there's no cash, therefore no market. The Feds could force the banks to give the houses to the cities, the cities hold a "dollar sale" like in Baltimore back in the '70's. Worked then, for a while.
\t scone | \t \t \t \t01.23.09 - 3:52 pm | #
scone | 01.23.09 - 3:52 pm | #
Don't give'm away, don't auction them; tear them down instead. Many home in places like Detroit cost too much to refurbish, cost to much to heat, etc. Instead, tear them down and recycle what we can. It'll put folks to work de-building (humour) them, and put people to work re-building them. And it's cost less to operate them in the future.
Is it too late to make an REO Speedwagon joke? This is like the power ballad of foreclosures!
Margin Call of Cthulhu | 01.23.09 - 3:38 pm | #
And I can fight foreclosure anymore,
I've forgotten what I started fighting for,
And if I have to crawl upon the floor,
or crash at Broward Horne's,
Banker I can't foreclosure anymore.
Sooooo --- Why aren't the banks listing them? Why aren't they trying to sell them?
Perhaps:
1. They are waiting for recovery. BUT by now, even the banks are predicting lower prices (see yesterdays COF presentation)
2. They don't want to realize the loss. If they don't sell, they don't lose. BUT that's an argument for an unrealistic ask price, not for withholding it from listing.
3. They're overwhelmed. BUT they can't be that overwhelmed. Sheesh, they already own the place, how much effort really is it to call the real estate dude/chick?
Any thoughts theories?
Mr. Beach writes:
OT: Dow 8K? What is the matter?
I think there's actually a few signs that things could be improving. If not improving, sentiment is getting so negative that we're beginning to reach a point where companies outperform expectations as seen with Google and Apple.
THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST
My expectation ratio predicted the decline in earnings in late 2007. For the first time in over 18 months I am beginning to see improvement. Ie. expectations are SO negative that companies could being to outperform going ahead....
Looks like employment is giving up the ghost in California.
9.3%
.
Ouch
Go to fidelityasap.com and register (it's free). You can see the Trustee sales being put off day after day after day. Lots of homes that havent been foreclosed on but have had NTS filed are sitting in the wings.
Actually, it's true in Florida. You have to send a notice the first year you move in and then pay taxes without anybody complaining about it for 7 years.
Then you can quiet title.
I actually did this once. I'm pretty sure the prior owner was dead, but was never able to track it down for sure.
Tonight I am attending the JPM Chase squash Tournament of Champions, at Grand Central Station.
Last year it was the Bear Stearns Tournament of Champions.
Before that it was the Lehman Brothers Tournament of Champions.
Thanks to them I have a box. Just before the first serve I plan to yell out "88 trillion" in the direction of the JPM box and will try to snap a photo.
Question:
What is the over/under for failed banks today
The American Express ad on CR said "Go With Gold". I'll take that as a divine sign...
"
if it's in montclair, give PO'd in cali a shout, he's in the market.
Punditry | 01.23.09 - 3:30 pm | # "
Thanks for the kind thoughts
but we're holding off for atleast one more year. It all comes down to the economy around here and everytime I think it can't get worse it gets worse again.
We just saw a nice Spanish Hacienda style house. On 1/4 acre in Claremeont right across from the tennis club. Last sold in 2006 for 1.25M, now on the market for 899k as a short-sale. Very good quality building from the 1920s, great foundation, great rooms.
Things are hosed and people are only just grasping it around here.
TaxDoc writes:
Question:
What is the over/under for failed banks today
O/U: 2. I'll take the over.
I would take the under on anything less than 4.
The banks ARE that overwhelmed. I think they've lost track of what they own and don't own.
The next house over from my future bunk house is 7400 s ft and it has been empty for 30 months. Guy had a contract that fell through on it in 2005 for $2.5M. It is now listed at $1.4M (and it has had a good $150K in improvements put into it in the last 2 yrs). Not to mention that the pool serivce comes all summer, and the lawn service for the 5 acres of mowing once a week, a maid service once a month or so, and contractors to keep it fixed up, property mangement, taxes, etc. LOL I keep waiting for the insurance fire.
Only the shadow knows.... Yes, this is the dirty little secret held by the banks. For a number of reasons, thay are not hitting the market with their REOs...Yet
Actual inventory of unsold houses is probably 20-24 months, instead of the 10-11 months that are listed. The longer they wait, the more they will have. Once they open the floodgates,after realizing the market is only getting worse, we wil see massive declines.
WestsideREmeltdown
Santa Monica Meltdown, The "90402"
.
how do I buy a ghost house from zombie bank?
.
Wait till the unemployment rate hits 10%. Historically housing has been hit after unemployment peaked, so the market still has to wrestle with that. I heard some "housing reached bottom" talk again today.
The housing train wreck has only just started.
I'm shocked, I tell you shocked that the markets gonna close green today. You don't think there's gambling going on in the casino do you?
Maria must be plugging in the night-stand cowboy as we speak.
"there's no liquidity because the prices of existing housing stock is too high.
ac"
Funny. All you have to do to move property in most markets is underprice vs comparable homes.
The liquidity problem isn't with home buyers. It's with the sellers. They don't have enough money to cover the loss, or don't want to.
some investor guy
Yep. You've got this no bid situation at current prices, and really there shouldn't be bids on overpriced housing.
Whether or not I approve of nationalizing bad mortgage debt, if you're going to do that you might as well make the housing available to the public (since they're basically buying) on an individual basis as prices that won't result in default and are tolerable even in an economic depression.
"Don't give'm away, don't auction them; tear them down instead. Many home in places like Detroit cost too much to refurbish, cost to much to heat, etc. Instead, tear them down and recycle what we can. It'll put folks to work de-building (humour) them, and put people to work re-building them. And it's cost less to operate them in the future.
xxxxx | 01.23.09 - 3:57 pm"
That actually costs a lot of money, and who gets the contracts, possible looting, land fill issues, etc. They thought of that in Baltimore, but went to the dollar house program because it was the cheapest. Since people were often illegally occupying the houses, it was cheaper in police costs, too. Call it "squat to own."
Wait until those dumb, whiny publiK skool teachers get laid off here in CA; then we may get torches and pitchforks!
Sack Sacramento!
Hmm...take out the probably. Makes me sound wishywashy.
Dr. Hfuhruhurr
I wonder about how realtytrak counts these. There are surely lots of REOs that are pending but not yet sold (they are the only thing selling) So they would still be owned by the bank but not active MLS listings.
I think the bigger number is the "zombie" inventory- currently owned by a "homeowner" who has no intention of making another payment, but the bank is still trying to prevent a foreclosure or just too busy to care.
Then their are the homeowners who want to make a payment and stay, but can't afford it any longer. The banks probably won't even attempt foreclosure until every hope for squeezing more blood from those stones is lost.
When the actual recording of an NOD catches up with the reality of what's "available" these numbers will continue to be skewed in this way.
I think they counted on this BTW.....
Loss is still a four letter word.
Ciao
MS
Gutless and clueless in L.A.:
LAUSD chief scraps teacher layoff plans | L.A. NOW | Los Angeles Times
Fiddling while Rome burns.
Uhoh, looks like Marias gonna have to wheel the nighstand cowboy back into the closet unfortunately.
Anecdotally, the shadow inventory in my neighborhood (near northern NYC suburbs) is enormous.
There are so many people here who would like to get the $900,000 to $1.2 million that they still think their homes are worth, but know they probably can't.
This includes a lot of Boomers who had planned to sell about now, and also younger people who need to cash out equity just to pay the bills and get out from under heavy mortgages.
And it may be years before they can sell, because this market has only started its downward path. The only good news is...it's a lot cheaper to support a family out here (20 miles away) than in Manhattan. So, there's some faint hope that the market will be supported by strapped Manhatann families that have to downsize.
people who don't plan to make them their primary residence.
ac | 01.23.09 - 3:48 pm | #
That 'plan' charade needs to be eliminated. Too many primary and second homes are, in fact, investment (you should pardon the term) properties.
The banks ARE that overwhelmed. I think they've lost track of what they own and don't own.
lawyerliz | 01.23.09 - 4:00 pm | #
Agreed. And these are the "financial experts."
Neighbors are fighting REO blight.
LenderOffender.com - Rank Neglected and Abandoned Properties by Lender | Find Foreclosures
In some (fairly) nice neighborhoods with lots of for-sale signs, I've seen houses with lock-boxes on the doors, no for-sale sign, and a clunker parked in the driveway. I think the clunker is to make the house look habitated. Actually, it kind of works.
But I wonder (assuming the supposition is correct), who's parking the clunker? The ex-owner? The bank? A neighbor?
Split close, dow down, spx up. Guess Maria needs to put the nighstand cowbow half into the closet. Maybe run it off a battery rather than full power-supply.
Over a year ago, I represented a foreclosee who insisted she could bring the mtg current. She had been foreclosured out by final Summary Judgment, but I filed what I told her was a hopeless motion to Set Aside. It was granted because the opposition didn't show up.
That was Jan 08 or maybe Dec 07. Nothing has happened. They could file something and get rid of her in 2-4 weeks, but the file has fallen into oblivion.
She's got a 2nd mtg, which she has been paying. I asked why and she had no answer. Well, she owes the 2nd too, and who am I to convince her to stop paying the 2nd.
So here we are, 13 months later, and even if they filed something tomorrow, she wouldn't be out for another couple of months.
Don't give'm away, don't auction them; tear them down instead. Many home in places like Detroit cost too much to refurbish, cost to much to heat, etc. Instead, tear them down and recycle what we can. It'll put folks to work de-building (humour) them, and put people to work re-building them. And it's cost less to operate them in the future.
xxxxx
Haha... well that was exactly what solved the problems we had during the Great Depression.
We engaged in a worldwide campaign to destroy the massive excess capacity created during the 1920s, now affectionately known as WWII.
But of that day and hour knoweth no man, no, not the angels of heaven
Mish's Global etc.
There was a merchant in Bagdad who sent his servant to market to buy provisions and in a little while the servant came back, white and trembling, and said, Master, just now when I was in the marketplace I was jostled by a woman in the crowd and when I turned I saw it was Death that jostled me. She looked at me and made a threatening gesture, now, lend me your horse, and I will ride away from this city and avoid my fate. I will go to Samarra and there Death will not find me.
The merchant lent him his horse, and the servant mounted it, and he dug his spurs in its flanks and as fast as the horse could gallop he went.
Then the merchant went down to the marketplace and he saw me standing in the crowd and he came to me and said, Why did you make a threating getsture to my servant when you saw him this morning?
That was not a threatening gesture, I said, it was only a start of surprise. I was astonished to see him in Bagdad, for I had an appointment with him tonight in Samarra.
HWDY
We engaged in a worldwide campaign to destroy the massive excess capacity created during the 1920s, now affectionately known as WWII.
ac | 01.23.09 - 4:08 pm | #
Yikes!! I never thought of it that way.
OT: This is completely off-topic. You might have heard about the olympic athlete's village in Vancouver and the developer which used Fortress for financing. It seems the one media group CanWest which lost the broadcasting rights has had editorial direction to sensationalize it. So the developer got their rebuttal in through the rival newspaper chain. The one thing it doesn't have mentioned is that the City has recourse on the $250mn of the developer's assets
> > article pretty interesting and it touches on a lot of what goes in to development
If you don't know about the project, it's creating a new neighbourhood on reclaimed industrial land. The project covers 1/5th of the new neighbourhood's eventual size. $1.2bn to be spent, covers utilities, roads, seawall, parks, community centre, and other amenities which will also be used for the eventual development on the rest of the area.
$875bn for the athlete's village itself finalized contracts down to suppliers and sub-trades. 1,100 units. 750 market (luxury type), 120 subsidized, 230 public housing. There is small retail, and a couple anchor stores
City took 2 years after winning games in 2003 to award a bid that they required a lot of environmentally friendly and subsidized housing, eventually cutting back on the initial push for 33% public, 33% subsidized, 33% market housing (which the newly elected current council wants, and the new mayor made this whole thing into a big news story by blaming the last council of whom half are in his party. Trying to blame it on the old council so he doesn't half to be thrifty in his primary goal of spending on homeless)
They sold the land for $200mn, next closest bids were half that. Of which they got $67 million up front, rest to be paid on completion.
They would have done incredible if one idiot hadn't proposed to guarantee the loan to fortress last summer, who has since reneged on its deal for $750mn loan (+$50mn contingency) and only disbursed half that.
So the need for the City to borrow has now been used to rewrite the city charter, which has to be passed by the provincial legislature and the key bit is the rewrite will allow the city to borrow unlimited amounts (in the past needed an exemption from the province to pass a cap limit) that can be used for any pet projects in the future.
Finance, real estate, politics. Interesting but tiring
Wonder who bribed who to single source the loan.
John Thain just said all's fair in greed and extortion.
Never been a better time to sell. Sell when the price is going down; buy when the price is going up.
Thain spent some kind of incredible amount of money to redecorate his office. O is using his decorator for the White House. Who pays?
We engaged in a worldwide campaign to destroy the massive excess capacity created during the 1920s, now affectionately known as WWII.
ac | 01.23.09 - 4:08 pm | #
Yikes!! I never thought of it that way.
jus me
I actually got that idea from Mish's site.
But if you accept the Austrian thesis that excess capacity is the root cause of depression and deflation then it makes perfect sense that a global campaign of capacity destruction would be the one thing to really cure it.
Time and time again, the historical record seems to substantiate the Austrian viewpoint.
asl hearts lenin writes:
John Thain just said all's fair in greed and extortion.
I like Thain's idea of using TARP money for an office remodel. That furniture might be the only thing TARP money has been used for that will actually maintain some of its value.
"They could file something and get rid of her in 2-4 weeks, but the file has fallen into oblivion." - lawyerliz
I'm thinking the lender's Dogsbody in charge of this file has quietly ignored it. If Dogsbody's bosses knew just how many bad loans they really have, Dogsbody would lose his/her own job. So all the zillions of Dogsbody lenders are being very, very quiet, hunkered down, hoping to get TARPed and ZIRPed and otherwise have their asses saved by the Big O & Co.
Not a great strategy, but they don't have anything else.
ac - excess supply - that exactly what happened to tulips
Overcapacity. Really, this is bizarre to me, tho no doubt true.
We get more efficient. Instead of prices going down, or everybody has to work less, and a glorious paradise on earth, we get a global disaster.
Losr, you still there man? I wrote/type some info to you in the last tread, however the last tread is dead, cant retrive the posts. You basically stated that we were wimps for not trying to change American fiscal policy. You stated that you were 60 yrs old and did not want to eat cat food. Guess what, I fought the system so that you WOULD/WILL NOT have to revert to that measure. Sadly I failed.
Nonetheless, I got your back....I will try again, but I will need your help this time.
ac,
"But if you accept the Austrian thesis that excess capacity is the root cause of depression and deflation"
That's the symptom. The cause is EZ credit, allowing price signal distortion, thus making projects which are unprofitable, appear profitable, in the short run.
"a global campaign of capacity destruction would be the one thing to really cure it."
No Austrian would advocate this. Austrian's are heavily influenced by Say. This is the brojken window faslacy taken to it's logical conclusion. The destroyed resources were useful, and the loss of life is a loss that is unimaginable for the human race.
Nostrovia,
Based on the number of sad stories I have heard recently about late 50s, early 60s people that cat food thing is no joke. Except it should be dog food. Cat food has stuff in it that is good for cats, but not people.
if you accept the Austrian thesis that excess capacity is the root cause of depression and deflation then it makes perfect sense that a global campaign of capacity destruction would be the one thing to really cure it.
ac | 01.23.09 - 4:13 pm | #
Umm, err, in the technology sector, we refer to "innovation" as the thing that makes overcapacity obsolete, and sent to the junk heap.
(incidentally a pleasant way of avoiding dividends and suckering, er "incentivizing" new investors)
Cat food has stuff in it that is good for cats, but not people.
lawyerliz | 01.23.09 - 4:18 pm |
Now she tells me. That explains why I have the urge to lick my own ass.
Does the California unemployment rate of 9.3 exclude farm workers, which is possibly the worst sector ? Or are they just excluded from payroll counts, and the unemployment calculated a different way ?
Excluding farmworkers, California lost 78,200 jobs in December as employers sliced payrolls to deal with the slowing economy.
Business Week Online > File Not Found
Hot off the presses, my lead at Papa Johns in Alpharetta said a bunch of Crown Vics filled with suits just pulled up, and are asking for 2 dozen pies.
California is clearly sinking. Quick, everyone run to the right coast and lean towards France.
Got peak civilization?
lawyerliz:
Hey, my dog loves to eat cat poop, so I'm not so sure dog food is the way to go either...
Game Over man.... GAME OVER!
MSN Money has a headline that Mkt is up from lows.
This is true, but wouldn't a more accurate headline be:
Market is down SIX THOUSAND POINTS from high?
The Freddie and Fannie Eviction and Forclosure Sales Ban ends on Jan 31st. Be ready.
Freddie Mac Will Not Issue Another Reference Notes Security in January - News Archive - Freddie Mac
Overcapacity. Really, this is bizarre to me, tho no doubt true.
We get more efficient. Instead of prices going down, or everybody has to work less, and a glorious paradise on earth, we get a global disaster.
lawyerliz
Well the disaster occurs because all these people lent their wealth and their effort to creating this overcapacity, then they find out they invested in something that is not needed and yields no profits, so their investment or their loan is lost.
So people lose faith in lending and investing - that's what causes the disaster.
It's like if we built 10 Taco Bells for every man, woman, and child in America.
Life would seem grand for awhile until everybody realized they'd spent their lives doing something that has no value. Then they get the idea that it's best that they do nothing at all.
Ghost Houses in the Sky = high-rise condos?
Tell us whether you are joking or not, grim; I honestly can't tell.
One of my tomato plants has bitten the dust in the cold; the rest seem a bit ragged around the edges, but ok.
I hadn't looked at the Countrywide foreclosures blog in six months or more . . . quite a jump since last I looked!
Countrywide Foreclosures (REO) Blog
Yep, wally, yep, yep, yep.
Umm, err, in the technology sector, we refer to "innovation" as the thing that makes overcapacity obsolete, and sent to the junk heap.
(incidentally a pleasant way of avoiding dividends and suckering, er "incentivizing" new investors)
jus me | 01.23.09 - 4:18 pm |
I know a bit about the technology sector myself.
But to use a previous analogy:
What innovation makes having 10 Taco Bells per capita viable?
Human cloning?
ac,
I very much agree. The governments are now engaged in massive efforts to preserve and protect the existing systems of overcapacity. That doesn't look like a fruitful course, does it?
As a farmer I will tell you a little secret nbot commonly know about animal food. The legal requirements to sell say dog treats are MUCH more stringent than they are for selling people vegetables. Dog food may not taste great but it is safe food. It is a hold over from older times; animals are important. People are just....
"It's like if we built 10 Taco Bells for every man, woman, and child in America."
We've certainly come close to that in actual capacity utilization......
I can't help but think it was planned this way from the get go.
Ciao
MS
Up 2/4ths of a trillion since Oct/Nov of 07 when I did my back of the envelope disaster calculation. And I am sure that they sold SOME reos in the interim and there are more foreclosures to go.
4 trill anybody?
By the way, Countrywide is especially hard to deal with, with regard to negotiating anything.
ac,
I very much agree. The governments are now engaged in massive efforts to preserve and protect the existing systems of overcapacity. That doesn't look like a fruitful course, does it?
wally
It's more of exactly what we've been doing for years now - wasting effort and resources by misusing them.
comrade V -love lenderoffender. Now someone needs to make a national jim the realtor type website with videos from pissed off realtors.
might as well post this again:
DQNews - Los Angeles Times Zip Code Chart
...and be on topic for once.
check out the volume in santa maria vs (the city of) santa barbara. both have population of about 91K. a microcosm of the state as a whole.
I meant 3/4ths three fourths of a trill.
Interesting. Also the author looks like he wishes he could still kill foxes and ride the indian house boy
Barack Obama inauguration: this Emperor has no clothes, it will all end in tears – Telegraph Blogs
snip to final 2
It is frightening to think there is a real possibility that the entire world economy could go into complete meltdown and famine kill millions. Yet Western - and British - commentators are cocooned in a warm comfort zone of infatuation with America's answer to Neil Kinnock. We should be long past applauding politicians of any hue: they got us into this mess. The best deserve a probationary opportunity to prove themselves, the worst should be in jail.
It is questionable whether the present political system can survive the coming crisis. Whatever the solution, teenage swooning sentimentality over a celebrity cult has no part in it. The most powerful nation on earth is confronting its worst economic crisis under the leadership of its most extremely liberal politician, who has virtually no experience of federal politics. That is not an opportunity but a catastrophe.
Dog food may not taste great but it is safe food. It is a hold over from older times; animals are important. People are just....
Wyoming | 01.23.09 - 4:24 pm | #
(Waves arm frantically) I know! Soylent Green!
I can't help but think it was planned this way from the get go.
Ciao
MS
MS | 01.23.09 - 4:25 pm | #
The classic model of small village or a self sufficient national economy has gone over to pathological overproduction and pyramid scheme.
Hey, my dog loves to eat cat poop, so I'm not so sure dog food is the way to go either...
Spunkmeyer
Protein
BFF candidate:
Whitney National Bank
If they have not been "merried" to someone else already....hard to tell any longer.
Ciao
MS
What innovation makes having 10 Taco Bells per capita viable?
ac | 01.23.09 - 4:23 pm | #
Well, then you say, "Ah, not Taco Bell, we need 10 Panda Express per person!"
(Waves arm frantically) I know! Soylent Green!
scone | 01.23.09 - 4:27 pm | #
Exactly! Stay in town and I will bring you something to eat occasionaly. Wander off the reservation and its compost time.
what's the current over/under that seniors will be eating cat food before long?
There is just as much "Ghost" Inventory during the boom times....flippers' inventory.
Funny, nobody was hooting and hollering about that.
Back on topic, why aren't the banks listing the REOs?
It didn't count then, Darth. It only counts when prices are going down, not up.
This is what regulations are supposed to prevent. hahahahahah
I'm thinking MagnetBank (GA)
"Dog food may not taste great but it is safe food. It is a hold over from older times; animals are important. People are just...."
The other great thing about dog food is that you can get your weekly melamine intake the natural way rather than having to bother with using health-food supplements.
I try to eat dog food on Sunday or Monday so that I don't have to worry on Friday whether I got enough melamine for the week.
We've certainly come close to that in actual capacity utilization......
I can't help but think it was planned this way from the get go.
Ciao
MS
\t MS | \t \t \t \t01.23.09 - 4:25 pm | #
Why do you think there was some plan? Could've been the actions of independent actors acting in what they perceived would be in their self-interest. Certainly, US real estate developers have proved their idiocy to us. I've read your posts for a while, and see that you're quite the intelligent observer. However, might you be expecting the players in this game to have something close to the intelligence you have? The simplest and most likely explanation is often idiocy and short-sightedness.
Jus me - it's probably just an outgrowth of the fear of "mark to market".
wow, did you catch a good look at Thain on the news?...bastard has a "just got pumped by the neighbor's cat" look on his face.
Back on topic, why aren't the banks listing the REOs?
Cause they'd have to writedown the value to market, which would further erode the balance sheet.
New Thread: The Accidental Landlord ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
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jus--
because they have lost track of everything
because they are stupid
because someone is protecting their job for awhile, as suggested above
because they cut employees, and they are totally overwhelmed
because they would have to recognize there losses
because empty houses are actually worse than houses with people in them who aren't paying (this one has too much logic, and is probably just a side effect of the above)
Remember, there is no "they", no person who will personally be creamed for the additional loss, and no particular motivation to recognize or minimize losses. There is nothing at the other end to take responsibility
The employee who causes losses to be recognized with be blamed/fired and they know that.
LA TIMES:
Economic stimulus package has a potential windfall for California government. The state could receive $11 billion, enough to wipe out about 25% of its budget shortfall.
Governor Schwarzenegger remarked, "I am very pleased that Congress and President girly-arms are willing to extend help to the great state of Caulifornia."
ok I made up that last part
ac,
"But if you accept the Austrian thesis that excess capacity is the root cause of depression and deflation"
That's the symptom. The cause is EZ credit, allowing price signal distortion, thus making projects which are unprofitable, appear profitable, in the short run.
"a global campaign of capacity destruction would be the one thing to really cure it."
No Austrian would advocate this. Austrian's are heavily influenced by Say. This is the brojken window faslacy taken to it's logical conclusion. The destroyed resources were useful, and the loss of life is a loss that is unimaginable for the human race.
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope
I would argue the easy credit leads to the excess capacity and supply which leads to the deflation and depression. Easy credit is the more ultimate cause; excess capacity and supply are more proximate causes that are direct results of the easy credit.
Also suggesting that war would "cure" excess capacity is not the same thing as advocating it.
I'm saying historical events are consistent with the theoretical framework.
Maybe "cure" is the wrong word if it implies that war is a preferable alternative.
re: Thain
I have no doubt it had to do with Lewis trying to consolidate his power internally
Maybe Thain can go on to sell dirty floaters to governments
Lenders have been waiting for the Spring bounce to start listing their REOs.
Hoocoodanode there's not gonna be a Spring bounce?
DOH!
Repeating...
scone writes:
"They could file something and get rid of her in 2-4 weeks, but the file has fallen into oblivion." - lawyerliz
I'm thinking the lender's Dogsbody in charge of this file has quietly ignored it. If Dogsbody's bosses knew just how many bad loans they really have, Dogsbody would lose his/her own job. So all the zillions of Dogsbody lenders are being very, very quiet, hunkered down, hoping to get TARPed and ZIRPed and otherwise have their asses saved by the Big O & Co.
Not a great strategy, but they don't have anything else.
scone | 01.23.09 - 4:14 pm | #
The bankers are scared shitless of losing their own jobs. They will avoid exposing their own weakness at all costs. The lying will get worse, hence financial sector cannot be valued. Banking stocks drop, bank fails anyway. Even relatively honest banks cannot be valued. Then TARP and ZIRP fail, FDIC can't keep up, etc. Total meltdown planetwide.
Thank you liz.
Any thoughts on what will eventually force liquidation? Bankruptcy of the banks?
Hoocoodanode there's not gonna be a Spring bounce?
DOH!
Feckless Ness | 01.23.09 - 4:39 pm | #
Income tax refunds?
Thain, is only one in a bucket of assholes, with the goods ones thrown out.
One other thing to mention: in some areas there has also been a backlog in the courts on foreclosure proceedings. So in addition to the loans for which foreclosure proceedings have not been initiated, you also have a whole class of loans for which they have started the foreclosure work but not yet even been able to get to the front of the line and in front of the bankruptcy judge.
Based on the number of sad stories I have heard recently about late 50s, early 60s people that cat food thing is no joke. Except it should be dog food. Cat food has stuff in it that is good for cats, but not people.
Bad choice. Best for people on a tight budget is staples like milk, potatoes, cabbage, rice, and bread, supplemented with smaller amounts of seasonal fruits and cheap meats. Pet food is a bad price for the nutrition you get. You can eat decent food quite cheaply in the US if you stick to healthy food, avoid processed stuff, and watch the prices.
Dunno, jus.
Maybe bank bankruptcy.
Maybe municipalities inspecting empty houses and filling liens. Maybe banks no longer able to pay insurance or property taxes and losing houses to counties/ municipalities.
To repeat my meme:
Empty houses rot.
Rotting houses are not a good thing.
This should be addressed as soon as possible.
I have not been sent my new lease agreement yet - just a few days left in the lease period of one year - I'm wondering if the landlord is going to call it quits.
"Could've been the actions of independent actors acting in what they perceived would be in their self-interest"
Precisely my point......but in reality there is no real independence from this....think of it...could there really have been?
My point in a "plan" was that the powers that be KNEW this would be the end game hence they had a plan....they just counted on natural instincts of the the system they have provided and enabled to do just that.
Ciao
MS
Agreed, banks are just not foreclosing because they cannot keep up and do not want to have to report even more bad news. They hide all this inventory under the guise of trying to provide foreclosure assistance to the homeowners in default. I've got a friend who's done a walk away hoping to wash their hands of it ASAP, but they are continuing to pay the utilites and HOA fees. Its been sooo long since they stopped paying on the mortgage that the annual property tax payment is due!!! Thus the banks are also avoiding carrying costs by not foreclosing and taking possession!!
Dogsbody would lose his/her own job.
scone | 01.23.09 - 4:39 pm | #
Are people really getting sacked for selling REOs?
It could happen, but is it happening?
The house next door to us had an NOD filed 9 months ago. Empty for 9 months and no foreclosure proceedings yet.
I'm wondering specifically about the houses that have already been foreclosed on.
"Income tax refunds?"
Just send in your IOU from your state refund in Ca.
Just as good as what the Fed accepts at it's window..... right??
Ciao
MS
"The house next door to us had an NOD filed 9 months ago"
Filing is one thing....recording it is entirely different. That's what is not being done (on a large scale).
Ciao
MS
"Filing is one thing....recording it is entirely different. That's what is not being done (on a large scale)."
I believe it has been recorded. The neighbor on the other-side is a mortgage broker and is the one who gave me the above information from whatever public records he has access to.
This is a variation on the old shtick where you would wear your dirtiest, oldest clothes on the day you saw the welfare man.
The banks have zero motivation to move any of this inventory. They just want TARP cash, which utterly dwarfs any profitability they could hope for in the best of times. Moral hazard phase 4.
Do they think they can avoid paying property taxes if they just fail to file???
Stupid.
They have got to pay them sooner or later--and later means with lots of interest & fees, at least in Florida.
Or the taxman will take them away from everybody.
Lawyerliz.....BINGO!
Dog food may not taste great but it is safe food. It is a hold over from older times; animals are important.
What do you suppose happens to livestock (and livestock parts) that isn't fit for human consumption?
Pet food, people! It goes into pet food.
I'd still like to know the over/under
Next door to my little nest in Wisconsin my ex-neighbor's home has been sitting empty for over a year and taxes for both 2007 and 2008 are past due. Still haven't seen any foreclosure activity on the part of the city and county, but at least for now the place was "winterized" and just yesterday all the remaining belongings were either hauled off to the landfill or acquired by my wife as it's not the time of year for yard sales.
Bananas are still 4 or 5 to the dollar. A great food.
when there was no crawdad to be found, we ate sand....
....YOU ATE SAND?
It's like if we built 10 Taco Bells for every man, woman, and child in America.
Change taco bell to Starbucks and its true
Taco Bells could be homeless shelters.
Humour me on this. Would it be possible for all those people who own their own modest homes outright to get a free upgrade to a newer and larger McMansion? Kind of like being bumped to first class, except with houses. It hardly seems fair that so many nice houses are either going to rot or are inhabited by virtual squatters when responsible homeowners are left out in the cold.
"Taco Bells could be homeless shelters.
lawyerliz | 01.23.09 - 5:02 pm | # "
Taco Bells require seat-belts on their toilets. Very helpful after drenching one of their 1.99 burrito supremes in hot-sauce.
Well, I don't imagine there would be any hot sauce left by that time.
"Humour me on this. Would it be possible for all those people who own their own modest homes outright to get a free upgrade to a newer and larger McMansion?"
Thanks, but no thanks - the "high maintanence" lifestyle is about to be found out for what it really is, non-sustainable.
I have little doubt that loans are accurately marked in the books. The OCC was already having the regionals increase reserves on the stuff that was current 12 months ago. I imagine the reasoning they are making it to market are the more pedesterian ones: they only want so many with the realtors or the realtors only want to take so many; they are getting bogged down in procedures; and related to the last, not enough people with authority to make approvals at different points in the process.
Yep, badger.
I'm new to comments here, but I have question about Deeds In Lieu of Foreclosures? Just saw a report (on MSNBC I think) about banks agreeing just to take the deed and avoid the whole foreclosure process. Predictably the network had no data on how widespread the practice has become. How does this play into the foreclosure numbers, if at all?
Wyoming: SAme thing down the street from me, foreclosed , auction not accepted , sat vacant for 20 months, pipes freeze etc. This is in a Chi. suburb that has been fairly stable in regards to RE. German bank sitting on the property described. They have turned a bad situation into a disaster
Yo Montana: Forget about planting the veggies. Fill the bunkhouse full of illegals and plant five acres of dope, and if caught, blame it on the illegals. Its the American Way dude.
Sorry, meant Wyoming.
Green Labor Mike---
Tried that--bank refused and we had to go through the whole foreclosure process because there was an 2nd lien on the property.
bgates-
Re: Santa Maria versus Santa Barbara, you couldn't ask for two completely different towns demographically/culturally.
Santa Maria, average central coast ag town overrun by illegal aliens. Lots of crime, the town is being Mexicanized as the average lower/middle class indigenous population is slowly swamped by the influx of poor illiterate indios from Mexico. Infrastructure/housing in slow decline.
Santa Barbara: Upper class college town with lots of old and new money. Very expensive, not a huge ag base. Some illegal problems (e.g gangs, drugs), but not to compare to Santa Maria. The local pretty people (lke Oprah) are protected from such unpleasantness by all that lovely money.
The comments on this blog are starting to get into lazy groupthink. The flip side of supposed shadow inventory is of course buyers on the sidelines waiting for prices to fall further out of fear of paying too much for a major purchase. So one could just as easily claim there is shadow demand.
I have also heard anecdotes about sellers using short sales listing to buy time from their banks with no intention of actually selling. This would be false supply.
This blog is at its best analyzing historical data and charting them. This shadow inventory report is a fluff piece without any statistical basis.
Why we are near death or midnight per the Conjure Clock
Has Deleveraging Even Begun? (Not For the Fainthearted) « naked capitalism
" blah, blah...most extremely liberal politician...no national experience...blah, blah, blah...catastrophe...blah, blah, blah"
Hey Nova,
George "Armstrong Custer" Bush and Churchy Palin had a good laugh over that one.
Oh, and Herbert Hoover called. He realizes you neocons have been sharing it for 28 years, but he wants his dipsh*t hat back.
You can leave it on W's pig farm with the superfluous Pentagon spending, coffer-draining aggressive wars, privatized profit/socialized risk paradigm, your "welfare is for the rich" and "there's no such thing as a good regulation" centerfold pinups, and your economic recalcitrance.
Please wipe them off and unstick all the pages. That "conservative" odor devalues my ash heap.
Toodles,
History
Hey Beth,
Do you realize the the term "illegal aliens" is very offensive to many Americans and sounds really racist?
Love,
Cointreau (M.S. and Ph.D-holding son of "illegal" immigrants)
I disagree with the notion that much of the ghost inventory is already listed as short sales. Which makes the situation all that much more dire.
There is no actual incentive for anyone to do a short sale over just waiting for the bank to foreclose. Hey, you get free rent for almost 12 months if you stay in the house without paying. Besides, a short sale does the same thing to your credit as a foreclosure, so what's the incentive to do a short sale? I think people have figured this out and are just waiting on the banks at this stage in the game.
Back up Mike the Broker. This post above is weak. See ' Mr Mortgage' for a much better picture.