What about "Depression"? The other "D".

If you're not enslaved to a mortgage, you're not REALLY LIVING!!

or so they say...

Yep. Like I said 2 threads ago, lots of Greatest Generation folks trying to save their retirement by selling the ranch. Downsizing to the RV.

Bond news? Are auction results out? Ten year spiked hard.

(Figures that David Rosenberg would be the first mainstream voice to stick his neck out and speak truth to power. Hopefully this is a 21st century Great Depression and not my grandfather's ... - AM)

Anonymous Monetarist: Some inconvenient truths from David Rosenberg

F$%k#d Borrower.
Thanks, I was guessing "buyer". Same difference.
on life support | 01.27.09 - 1:09 pm | #

That opens a whole new can of worms.  In the old dayes (c. 2006) the concept of homeowner was challenged.  If you have $300k of debt and $200k of asset real estate are you an "owner?"  Suggested alternatives included homemoaner and homdebtor. 

4D's on youtube

YouTube -

When people in California get pissed they move to Oregon.....when you get pissed in Oregon you move to Washington.

It's all relative. Oregon has MAJOR issues paying for anything to improve the infrastructure. Hence the schools are crap, roads are crap..excepting the major highways. The welfare situation there looks like something out of Ireland in the 70's......

I'm not bashing it because there are benefits and pitfalls to living anywhere but I think the people that move to Oregon from Ca. get a fairly big shock when they are there for a few months. Anything outside of the Portland area is quite a different picture as to what that area looks like. Get a little south and east of Salem and it changes dramatically.

Ciao
MS

brihome(Unrated) writes:
" How is that possible?  What court in the land would uphold such a law?" Just ask the guys who passed the Military Commissions Act in 2006...
\t brihome | \t \t \tHomepage | \t01.27.09 - 1:07 pm | #
Has the previous administration so seriously destroyed any enforcement of the Bill of Rights?  It sounds like this Martin Act pre-dates the last 8 years.  When was this previously used and was it ever upheld?  Sounds like a crock to me. 

Then again, Denninger was referenced so maybe I should calm down.

Last day of a pay cycle seems to be a big one for layoffs.

So often the last working day of the month, or the 15th.

I suppose it is easier to do the paperwork that way. No special checks to cut on strange days.

"never ever trust an American for the rest of my life"
Werner | 01.27.09 - 1:14 pm | #

You could say that for just about any nationality, or do you think other nations are pure in their acts/intentions? 
Funny that you should frequent an American blog for the source of your news.

It's all about the end of the month for insurance purposes. They may announce them at any time however they take them out on the last day of the month.

Been that way for a long time in Ca.

Ciao
MS

Get a little south and east of Salem and it changes dramatically.

Ciao
MS

Yep. I'm an inbred hillbilly myself, and I see people living here like the backwoods of east Kentucky. It's really hard on the kids, no education, parents on meth, living in a broken down trailer, no hope. But at the same time, a lot of people here don't believe in education, and there's a real "slacker" attitude. They do not like to work hard. I get the impression they are used to a life where they could work in the mills, logging, or salmon boats for six months, and slack off the rest of the year. They still think the good times will come back, and they refuse to change. And that's not counting the Rapture crowd, who have simply given up rational economic behavior altogether. I really want to get out of here.

Deleveraging, Decoupling, and Dawg
Nemo | Homepage | 01.27.09 - 1:19 pm | #

B@st@rd. 

January is often the renegotiation/reallocation period for annual benefits.  I suspect businesses are looking at their proposed share for 2009 as insurance companies respond to stock losses and the decision is to jettison staff. 

other nations are pure

Just Germans, eh Herr Werner?

Whoa! That reminds me, Expo is dad. I can haz liquidation sale? Too bad it's snowing hard and the DH took the all-wheel.

Unfortunately Expo is more of a giant showroom for special-ordering. They don't have all that much inventory to liquidate.

scone...
Every SoCalifornian I knew that moved to Oregon (probably 20-30) pretty much fell into the category of "old long-haired hippy dope-freak"

Gotta watch those "Flip this House" reruns.

They are already surreal to watch. But the programmers aren't idiots - they're suppressing old reruns. Old reruns don't make a lot of sense for what's mostly a fashion show anyway.

scone.......and they made "GREAT" parents. (pssst....notice the sarcasm)

Nemo, it ain't the debt that's deflating

Who in five years time would swap all their earthly possessions for a return to guaranteed law and a gov't restrained by checks/balances?

We will be paralyzed by fear of lost possessions and mesmerized by the same, our liberties will be eroded to nothing thru the back door.

America is becoming a concentration camp. The quick reversal from "everybody wants a green card" to "everybody wants a passport and visa" is a comin'. Financial traps are leading to liberty traps.

scone...
Every SoCalifornian I knew that moved to Oregon (probably 20-30) pretty much fell into the category of "old long-haired hippy dope-freak"
Black Star Ranch

I've only seen one of those around here. Most of them are tightly-wound L.A. and Bay area types, leveraged up to the max with 10 houses and a Hummer. It's more like the disco coke king era of the 70's, rather than the back to the land hippies.

D stands for Doh! as in Scone beat me to it.

Scone, I had friends who would go and work the fisheries during the summers. It was burtual work but that's how they paid for college. One of these was a roommate in Berkeley. Her dad taught at CalTech but she still did this anyways. She was a real character (dyed her hair green once to see if her BF would notice- long story) but one of the most well adjusted people I ever knew.

Google "Palmer Raids" if you want some background on the early 20's.GB did the same sort of thing with "D.O.R.A",disarming the populace to help squelch social change.

Has the previous administration so seriously destroyed any enforcement of the Bill of Rights?"

Yes, they in particular, have. But so have other administrations in the past. I'm just pointing out that the courts seem to be just fine with this sort of thing currently. And while I think that its unconstitutional, it sickens me to hear about the grave violation of rights when it pertains to politicians and bankers, while the avergage citizen's rights has been trampled upon.

You'll never hear a more vigorous defense of the 4th amendment than when a politician is under investigation for corruption.
\t brihome | \t \t \t \t01.27.09 - 1:21 pm | #

I believe all people should enjoy the protections of the Constitution and its amendments.  Drug dealers and bankers alike.  Everyone. 

I like to think it is what separates us from the Germans. 

------------------------------------------------------
joe shmoe(Unrated) writes:
legal affairs article on the Martin Act is quite enlightening. Makes me think Andrew Cuomo didn't want to become a Senator just now . . . plenty of big splashing to do in NY as Atty General.

Lawyers, any comments on this, below?

The Martin Act seems constitutional to me because its provisions about lawyers and taking the fifth are not in the context of a trial, just an investigation. It is similar to a grand jury investigation, where people who refuse to answer can be held in contempt. It is all about investigative power, which can then open prosecutions, or public humiliation and discrediting.

The time has come. Andrew Cuomo might be in the right place at the right time.
\t joe shmoe | \t \t \t \t01.27.09 - 1:29 pm | #
I did some research on the Martin Act myself and what the OP talked posted is not entirely fact.  What joe posted here is correct.  As to whether these prosecutorial powers are good or constitutional or not is argueable but the are not on the face unconstitutional. 

Werner | 01.27.09 - 1:30 pm

Wow, coming from a German. Flush your head and go back to the NPD. Lets see...Germans got about 1000 years of bad karma coming to them....

deflationary jane writes:
D stands for Doh! as in Scone beat me to it.

Scone, I had friends who would go and work the fisheries during the summers. It was burtual work but that's how they paid for college.

Yep, that's more or less my story. My parents put everything they had in the mortgage, and we were put to work to help pay for it too. Even in high school I had about 3 part-time jobs: greasy spoon, maid work, and newspaper route. It didn't kill me. BUt it does delay social development. A bit.

Werner,

The Dutch guy I mentioned a couple threads ago who was offended when I asked him if he was German? Why do you think that might be?

Because as a child he was in a camp.

My uncle - who walks with a limp? He is still alive. He hates cabbage. Why would that be Werner?

Because as a young man he was in a camp.

It was so long ago? Bullshit Werner.

Your country is a demographic and karma nightmare. Plus, you got yet another depression to live through...

"America is becoming a concentration camp."

...you need picture ID to board a bus.
...you need picture ID to fly within US if not on "no fly" lists.
...you need passport & ID to enter Mexican border towns for day.
...to drive you need state driver's license, state vehicle registration, & insurance certificate.
...to walk down sidewalk you need state approved picture identification card.

The problem with cramdowns:

http://clusterstock.alleyinsider.com/2009/1/the-trouble-with-cramdowns

They suck when it's the taxpayer that takes the loss.

energy-

a few threads back we discussed AMZN.....remember they had "Best Christmas Ever".......

I get so tired of seeing that line released every year like clockwork. Bezos gets paid back for all those "programs" he wrote prior to AMZN.

Ciao
MS

crispy: Jinx!

And no, I do not frequent CR much for information, but rather to insult and offend americans and to watch and witness their (idiotically self-inflicted) downfall. As a number of CR-residents already have figured out, it's called : "Schadenfreude".
Werner | 01.27.09 - 1:30 pm | #

Keep watchin', and don't mind those heavy footsteps you hear behind you;-)

Depressions in Germany have a history of being profoundly brutal. My mother has stories of the 30s and of the camps that would scare the bujeebus out of you.

About 3 weeks ago, I inherited a piece of property just outside of Hamberg. I guess I'd better liquidate it while I still can.

The Dutch guy I mentioned a couple threads ago who was offended when I asked him if he was German? Why do you think that might be?
nova | Homepage | 01.27.09 - 1:39 pm | #

LOL- Same thing happend to me.  The Dutch really don't like the Krauts;-)

Get close to the ground, Werner, Kartoffeln and Reben will be all you will have to eat for a long time. When protectionism comes, as it always does, the Deutschland internal economy will not create much milk and honey.

I think the key word is 'becoming'....and with that I can agree. I did say it was a bit of a stretch...but if you know your history you'll see how that started out by being a police state. Heck...Germany is still one now..a police state.

Ciao
MS

And no, I do not frequent CR much for information, but rather to insult and offend americans
Werner | 01.27.09 - 1:30 pm | #

Guys, next time Werner asks for information and/or links, we all know where to refer him to.

Birthright for Pottage. Stomachs before souls. Abdication instead of Rule.

The problem Rob is all they will say is "cut taxes"...its the only thing they know and that will not solve the problem

I disagree. My take is that the new meme is "spend less."

"I'd pay to hear O just say 'shut the F__ up'. Seriously"

Your thinking Blagojevich...

scone: LOL I love it

You'll never hear a more vigorous defense of the 4th amendment than when a politician is under investigation for corruption.
brihome | 01.27.09 - 1:21 pm | #

brihome, you are so right, and it doesnt stop at the 4th amendment...the entire bill of rights is under attack

First Amendment freedom of speech, of the press, and of assembly;

cant demonstrate without a permitt and the gov keeps you away from the action...see wto and nominating conventions, also looks like carnivore was spying on journalists

Second Amendment – Right to keep and bear arms.

yeah you an keep them unloaded , disassembled and locked in a safe in about half the states...more citizens died due to medical mal-practice and on the highways of america than from the criminal use of fire arms, conceeled weapons permits issued in oregon not accepted in california etc...

Third Amendment – Protection from quartering of troops.

give em time their working on that one

Fourth Amendment – Protection from unreasonable search and seizure.

the most riddled, hobbled and damaged of the 10 amendments...they read our email, our snail mail, enter our houses without our knowledge or with warrants (sneek and peek) and take our possessions under forfeiture laws requiring we prove what we own is lawfully ours, and use total information awareness to gather credit card purchases and as much other date as they can for "our" files

* Fifth Amendment – due process, double jeopardy, self-incrimination, eminent domain.

humm, will submerge you in water , or forcibly draw your blood, take your dna, rifle thru your medical and or banking records (homeland security - patriot act) or send you to a foreign country to be tortured to get the information they require...and we will stop your car and searach it at will using bogus claims of probable cause hmmm wasnt that a broken tail light i saw?

Amendment – Trial by jury
judges routinely refuse to allow juries to hear all the evidence and decide to send juries from the courtroom while major factual issues at bar are debated or decided

additionally prosecutors , judges and defense counsel reject jurors based upon their legal beliefs and prejudices... "voire dire"

Seventh Amendment – Civil trial by jury.

In suits at common law, where the value in controversy shall exceed twenty dollars, the right of trial by jury shall be preserved,

the credit card companies and a host of others have forced people to accept arbitration orchestrated by corporations chosen agency to settle claims, and the bankruptcy laws have been reqritten to weaken your judicial alternatives

Eighth Amendment excessive bail and unusual punishment..
million dolar bail and secret detention facilities and torture if you are an "enemy of the state"

Ninth Amendment – Protection of rights not specifically enumerated in the Bill of Rights.

The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people.

now of course this has been turned on its head..if your right aint guaranteed in the constitution it belongs to the government...they call these privileges (try an marry two spouses, alcohol ok mj not, some religions tax exempt, some not and of course driving a car on the nations roadds is a 'privelege

Tenth Amendment ...The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the states, are reserved to the states respectively, or to the people.

the government regularly uses the commerce clause to stop states from regulating banks (see north carolina trying to stop the subprime mess), clean air and water (see california and the epa) and even taking private property and giving it to developers, see mystic connecticut and the supreme court allowing mall developers to seize residential waterfront property 3 years ago)

these people have wiped their feet on our constitution and its past time we take back our rights

Is the fourth "D" Diarrhea?

Deflationary default dynamics: Five same-model homes, same size, same year built, same development, for sale from $369k to $469k, then 6th same-model is listed, bank REO, at $299k, all the way back to the '03 price new. Similiar disparities and dynamics as here probably occurring in most bubble areas, and bottom won't be in until they have disappeared.

Black Star Ranch(Excellent) writes:
It's idiocy and governmental meddling only - having NOTHING to do with national security.......it's creeping into everyday life and accepted by the masses, as pointed out by your incredulity to my point of view.

I agree with you completely. The people of this country have made themselves a prison camp to live in, and they celebrate their eagerness to do so. The American people live in a world without economy or consequences. They will be saved from eternal self-enslavement only by the fact that they will prove as inept at staffing a tyranny as they did a republic.

Byz you DO have a brain!

Black star, you can't hate all hippies. I've been known to wear tie-dye and bunny slippers while selling shares >; )

I do not frequent CR much for information, but rather to insult and offend americans and to watch and witness their (idiotically self-inflicted) downfall. As a number of CR-residents already have figured out, it's called : "Schadenfreude".
Werner | 01.27.09 - 1:30 pm | #

Karma's a bitch, Werner. Enjoy.

Really there are five, add disfunction to that list.

This is the part in the depression cycle when time snuffs out all the squirreled away money

This is the time on Sprockets vhen ve dance!!

YouTube - Sprockets Wiesbaden
.

Feckless Ness writes:
I do not frequent CR much for information, but rather to insult and offend americans and to watch and witness their (idiotically self-inflicted) downfall. As a number of CR-residents already have figured out, it's called : "Schadenfreude".

If there's anyone here I've failed to insult, I apologize.

KC-

Now they just wait for the end of the month....wouldn't want to carry the insurance for another month if you actually fail to get rid of them on the "correct" day. I actually extended my time at a company by not being available on the very friday at the end of the month when I knew they were going to lay off a whole group of us.

Ciao
MS

Dumb. 

Death, Divorce, Disease, Discharge, Depression

MS writes:
'cept no one really qualifies to buy the "ranch".

I suspect that once the reality of the "spring selling season" hits these people they will adjust downwards.....

If they were really smart they would look at comps at take 10% off of them...they would sell. Make no mistake...homes are selling if they are priced right....hence the problem we have.

Right now in Portland, there are no "comps." Sales are a frozen wasteland. Lending is dead. And the old folks are paid-off, so they are standing pat. Also, most of the better properties here are in the move-up range, and the move-uppers can't sell at any price, hence the frozen-tundra effect. There is no chain reaction.

3 D's from the (still hanging on) FB

Disbelief

Denial

Da boob job

Time to move into the De-ville

what states will be screwed for the next 25 years? anyone want to guess a top 5?

scone-

Portland is indeed a dead market. Even in early '07 there were many For Sale signs. I remember driving in East Vancouver and seeing almost entire streets with signs up. Can only imagine what those neighborhoods are like now.

In it's defense I'll say that it didn't really take the % ride upwards that other area's in the country experienced. It got nuts there (relatively speaking) but it may not be as bad as Rob D. predicts in comparison to Sacto. That's like another, cleaner NOLA waiting to happen IMO.

Ciao
MS

Sold my Fathers house in December, took the first offer at asking price, which came in the first weekend it showed. Priced it at the low end average of all the prior sales for the past 6 months, there were not many.
RE agent and sib were fighting me all the way.

Oh yeah, forgot to mention it was in OC.

A desperate attempt to find a bright side: I suspect divorce rate goes down, because alternatives to the current unpleasant spouse look even worse.

So we can say that the current economy is reinforcing family values??

D'oh!

is up and running again (on the subcommitte site).
Werner | 01.27.09 - 12:42 pm | #

So much for conspiracy theories of the evil Americans.

Actually, this says it better than I ever could.

YouTube - The Simpsons - Dohs

Harley-Davidson seeks federal aid to make loans...

Credit has dried up for many consumers, and Harley-Davidson Financial Services feels their pain in tougher commercial credit markets.

The financing unit for Harley needs about $1 billion in funding this year to continue providing new motorcycle loans to its customers. It also has a $500 million bank advance that's due in March.

More than half of all new Harley motorcycle purchases are funded by HDFS.

Not Hog!

Disinflation, Downsizing, and Democrats

Scone-

I laughed quite a bit last year when Lowe's opened up a brand new building right across the street (almost) from Home Depot. I think it opened in late summer.....This was in East Vancouver. When several blocks away there were loads of industrial buildings that could have been used for the very same purpose. Reminded me alot of the Central Expressway corridor in San Jose/Sunnyvale. That's been dead since the early 90's...there were always signs for space available there...even when prices were ridiculous.

Ciao
MS

Right now in Portland, there are no "comps." Sales are a frozen wasteland. Lending is dead. And the old folks are paid-off, so they are standing pat. Also, most of the better properties here are in the move-up range, and the move-uppers can't sell at any price, hence the frozen-tundra effect. There is no chain reaction.
scone | 01.27.09 - 12:29 pm | #
----
Portland is indeed a dead market. Even in early '07 there were many For Sale signs. I remember driving in East Vancouver and seeing almost entire streets with signs up. Can only imagine what those neighborhoods are like now.

In it's defense I'll say that it didn't really take the % ride upwards that other area's in the country experienced. It got nuts there (relatively speaking) but it may not be as bad as Rob D. predicts in comparison to Sacto. That's like another, cleaner NOLA waiting to happen IMO.
MS | \t \t \t \t01.27.09 - 12:37 pm | #
----

Portland indeed has some unique aspects.  Unfortunately, IMO they are factors that exacrebate their volatility.  They took a bit longer to participate in the bubble but then they jumped in.  Now, on the downside, they've held a bit longer but demographics, mobility, urban planoform (the word is transect), their economic base and much more have set them up for what could be roughly described as New England post WW-II.  As I put it on the portland housing blog; "If Portland were a company, it would be Boston Chicken." 

I had a short on HOG from the high 50's and cleared out of it in the mid teen's when they applied for the commercial paper crap the Fed was buying-it was then run back up to about 25. They packaged up about $4 b in crap loans as late as last September and someone bought them...wonder how those are doing about now...

Ciao
MS

Portland indeed has some unique aspects. Unfortunately, IMO they are factors that exacrebate their volatility. They took a bit longer to participate in the bubble but then they jumped in....

Rob Dawg

And the Californians who formerly pumped up the market are gone, and are selling their second homes here. That was some significant part of the move-up market. Sigh. Oregon will always be a colony of California, I'm afraid.

"Markets have become perfectly correlated"
all fall down?

I meant "dead," not "dad." The question is, ride out the storm, stay in the house for another 10 years, or do an "early capitulation" and really piss off the other sellers with my low, low price?

He who panics first, panics best

And the Californians who formerly pumped up the market are gone, and are selling their second homes here. That was some significant part of the move-up market. Sigh. Oregon will always be a colony of California, I'm afraid.
scone | 01.27.09 - 12:56 pm | #

Yers, thanks for reminding me.  "California equity locusts" a phrase from patrick.net three years ago. 

As to the second; "Sigh. Oregon will always be a colony of California..." no.  Take heart.  This is the age of "dis."  Disintermediation, dispersal, etc.  The big metros are the past.  Small metros will find their new place.  Of course Portland will have to "get over itself."  Shelve the transit plans, allow "dirty" industries.  Invest a bit in roads. 

Debt.

Treated as capital, but now without the prospect of future earnings...

Done.

De-employment?

When is the panic selling going to start?? Markets still have 30% downside from here.

Do people really have confidence that Obama can turn water into wine?

Or are the fed/treasury actively supporting the equities market?

So many questions. So few of them good.