Truck Tonnage Index: Cliff Diving
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Wed, 01/28/2009 - 2:19pm (108 comments)
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Some slippage in the tonnage.
Missing auto shipments.
Maybe the cargo simply has a lower density.
damn nemo's good!
.........................................
my company just had its first round of layoffs today. I made it thru, thank god. It has finally reached "fugly" here at the office. Before it was "we're different"... Ahh the good ole days (yesterday)
....................
I thought only busses could plunge?
If they couldn't see a record breaking decline one quarter in advance why should they be believed when they predict a mild recovery 3 quarters from now?
Luckily my job sucks ass and all my coworkers quit, so I am indispensible and cannot be laid off.
My job must suck really bad for people to quit and try to get another one in this climate.
Keep on Truckin'
P.S. Congrats on making the cut, nades, and sorry to hear about the layoffs. What industry are you in?
Maybe the cargo simply has a lower density.
Comrade Tiberius | 01.28.09 - 5:31 pm | #
And volume.
What's scary is we're back to Jan 2002 which itself was a recessionary environment.
it's virtual commerce.
wow, a collapse all the way to 2000 levels, the height of the last boom.
sigh. There are lies, damned lies, and CR charts...
For all the wretched justice of accelerated unemployment while banks get trillion dollar gifts, I can't help to think that the stimulus package fails because some chick with some disposable money looks in the window at the new Ipod nano and says, nah, the two-year old one is still fine.
SoCal general contractor. 2008 was our peak year. A bannner year if you will. We're not getting back to those revenues for a few years. We probably should have cut a lot sooner.....
How can tonnage be going down? I just read that we were the obesity nation of the world!
ades: congrats (I think) for keeping your job.
it would seem that the regular joes are starting to get it now. for the first time, people are coming up to me and asking me questions. before, they all knew I was worried but by general agreement we didn't discuss the issues.
I didn't want to terrify them, they were embarrassed by my crazy rantings.
but now I hear almost every day "yeah it sucks, but at least I have a job" and similar.
my neighbors have looked at their IRAs and 401ks.
being right is scary.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.28.09 - 5:33 pm | #
Rob,
Our freight dropped 30% in less than 45 days. Closer to thirty. Luckily we haven't hired in a year. Some dept. in over 2. Attrition has put us even.
During the Dot Com blowup we were down 30% in areas. Nationwide was 15% or so. 30% in a month has never happened. Ever. Till now.
Chris
tax cuts for the trucking industry will solve this!! (just stirring the pot from the last thread)
YouTube -
Ship the source code, for next to nothing. Manufacture locally. Trade only commodities. Share stuff.
in before "shrinkage"
If they couldn't see a record breaking decline one quarter in advance why should they be believed when they predict a mild recovery 3 quarters from now?
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.28.09 - 5:33 pm | #
Because the chief economist of the American Trucking Association is not allowed to, or paid to, scream "We'll all gonna die!" In that context, "mild recovery three quarters from now" means "a load 'o independents are going to be out of business this year, and a few of the big boys, too."
crispy&cole(Unrated) writes:
tax cuts for the trucking industry will solve this!! (just stirring the pot from the last thread)
And tax cuts are the only way to solve the national deficit!
I snort cocaine off an laffer curve!!!!
The scale on this graph is a bit deceptive, but an interesting statistic.
To short Treasuries:
TBT
Need to TARP those loads!!
Y2L - I use to be a doomer when it wasn uncool. Now its cool and everyone is a doomer... it sucks I have no material.... I'm a total bore at parties now! LOL!
"sigh. There are lies, damned lies, and CR charts..."
Um, wot?
I made it thru, thank god.
nades | Homepage | 01.28.09 - 5:31 pm | #
Congrats, Brother.
Waiting to hear from POIC - he had a dire message last night....
why aren't all the trucks fill to the brim with hoopajoops?
To short Treasuries
girlbear | 01.28.09 - 5:39 pm | #
I know its not your advice. but to others be very very careful with this play... no one is acting rational at this point....
And the truckers won't buy as much meth, so there goes another domino.
Keep on Truckin'
I love that song....jefferson airplane, right?
)
Looks like a good time for a road trip. Record low fuel prices and less truckers on the road. The only downside is that they are the better drivers and are most likely being replaced by J6P.
C&c and Cobra and Dawg a "30% in a month has never happened" is why disagreed with C&C's comments yesterday where he said it was slow and gradual. My take faster and deeper than anything we have seen in our lifetimes.
Putin-Dell slapdown at Davos
At the official opening ceremony of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Putin, now Russian Prime Minister, delivered a 40-minute speech touching on everything from why the dollar should not be the sole reserve currency to how the world needed to enter into a smart energy partnership with Russia. Then it was time for questions.
First up: Michael Dell. He praised Russia's technical and scientific prowess, and then asked: "How can we help" you to expand IT in Russia.
Big mistake. Russia has been allergic to offers of aid from the West ever since hundreds of overpaid consultants arrived in Moscow after the collapse of Communism, in 1991, and proceeded to hand out an array of advice that proved, at times, useless or dangerous.
Putin's withering reply to Dell: "We don't need help. We are not invalids. We don't have limited mental capacity." The slapdown took many of the people in the audience by surprise. Putin then went on to outline some of the steps the Russian government has taken to wire up the country, including remote villages in Siberia. And, in a final dig at Dell, he talked about how Russian scientists were rightly respected not for their hardware, but for their software. The implication: Any old fool can build a PC outfit.
Putin-Dell slapdown at Davos - Jan. 28, 2009
Waiting to hear from POIC
Comrade Terry | 01.28.09 - 5:40 pm | #
fingers crossed....
We need a truck Czar !
Y2L - I use to be a doomer when it wasn uncool. Now its cool and everyone is a doomer... it sucks I have no material.... I'm a total bore at parties now! LOL!
ROFL.
My best friend is in the construction field (an engineer) here in MN. They keep having mandatory meetings. Needless to say, the stress is high high high.
The other half just had to write up a list of the top 3-4 people that could be axed from their consulting company (healthcare IT consulting).
several hospitals in my area are laying off support staff and even a few doctors.
My own group just got word that we're getting shafted by the state, so we went from being in the black to the red with one penstroke.
I don't fear for my job. Yet. but I did basically take a 15% pay cut last year and this year I had the opportunity to make that up on volume (I have to see 20% more patients this year).
worse: more and more people are asking for "phone care". (because it's free) worse for me because it takes HOURS and is unpaid. Finally I had to start telling patients that they can only have one free phone call per month on medical issues.
(I was getting calls like "My son has had 8 years of a complex medical issue and let me tell you all about it and then diagnose it and treat it by phone). not good not good.
Record low fuel prices and less truckers on the road.
Don't know where you live but gas and diesel are on the way up in NC.....
Record glut in crude and the price goes up. Makes perfect sense. Like stocks going up when tousands join the ranks of the unemployeed. All fun until the anchor of the unemployeed exceeds the rapidly decreasing rated capacity of the vessel....
"We don't need help. We are not invalids. We don't have limited mental capacity."
km4 | 01.28.09 - 5:44 pm | #
I dont doubt the second two, but they have lead a pertty miserable existance...
let me tell you all about it and then diagnose it and treat it by phone). not good not good.
Yearning To Learn
Not good? That's how I get my viagra
The US is no longer the lead story. We know what's out there. It's a known unknown if you will
Just wait until the slowdown spreads throughout China from the coast
What will the CPC do when the bang-bang army has nothing to carry. That in my opinion is a unknown know
Hold on.. the ride is going to be a bit crazy!
This 2H recovery business keeps popping up everywhere. If we know well enough that there is going to be a 2H recovery, why don't we just avoid the whole collapse part? Why does anyone buy this crap?
There is still a lot of room left to fall in this index.
/sigh
The truck stop hooker, long-haul meth sales, and highway rest area handjob businesses are gonna really take a hit. Can't wait for the graph on those numbers.
With conjures world gd clock striking twelve, and the fomc comments,along with a nonstrike, lower energy cost, huge decline in truck tonnage, I'll take robdawgs advice and successfully declare myself ....(wait for it)...Double Unpluseconomic Boom!
"the chief economist of the American Trucking Association is not allowed to, or paid to, scream "We'll all gonna die!"
Very true. That's probably also in the CNBC employee handbook.
scone(Good) writes:
And the truckers won't buy as much meth, so there goes another domino.
There goes my Meth ETF!!!
After lurking for a while I can offer a thought based on experience on the trucking. When I was an owner operator in 1998- 2000, the nomal first quarter drop in my revenues was 15-20% from the previous quarter with loads building up progressively from there. Me thinks this chart would only be scary in Q3 or Q4
I blame Shaq Diesel !
Did anyone consider the possibility that the truck drivers just got lazy?
And, in a final dig at Dell, he talked about how Russian scientists were rightly respected not for their hardware, but for their software. The implication: Any old fool can build a PC outfit.
km4 | 01.28.09 - 5:44 pm | #
Post revolution, back in '92 or so, I contracted at Sun Micro for awhile. There were for a long time in the parking lot semi-trailers full of used, obsolete Sun workstations (Sun 2s and earlier) that were waiting to be refurbed and shipped off to Russia.
They may have come a way, but ... do they make many PCs in Russia even now? Maybe all Putin meant was that he could get a better deal from Taiwan.
Only Larry Kudlow, Ponyless.
POIC laid off?
"Waiting to hear from POIC
Comrade Terry | 01.28.09 - 5:40 pm | #"
If you ask me, these truckers sound like whiners.
2009: We are all Chonqinged
METH up 7% today
Methode Electronics Inc. - Google Finance
Anonymous(Unrated) writes:
METH up 7% today
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=meth
This stock will experience phenomenal activity on one trading day, only to slump for the next five days. Not my cup of tea.
Good comments but Michael Dell was being presumptive assclown and Putin just decided it was time for a smackdown and he could have used his judo expertise instead of stinging words
Kudlow? He is getting lazy too. He needs to come up with a new sthick. Every time I watch, all he talks about is his damn mustard seeds.
CRCAM Alpes Provence - Google Finance
Crap is also up today.
POIC laid off?
anon | 01.28.09 - 5:52 pm | #
Pissed Off In California(Good) writes:
\tUpdate on layoffs at our company (big financial company in the Bay Area > 12k employees).
Just got the obligatory please make sure to be in the office for mandatory meeting tomorrow. Guess tomorrow is the big D-day.
\t Pissed Off In California | \t \t \t \t01.28.09 - 1:06 am |
Key Points for Earnings Trends, full report should be posted on Zacks.com tomorrow morning:
Key Points:
\tTrends are terrible, 2009 expectations fall 4.65% in a week
\tEarnings Expectations are Collapsing for both 4Q and 2009
\t4Q total net income expected to be 29.0% below year ago
\tEarly reports (153 total) are ugly, total net income 39.6% below a year ago
\tSurprise numbers improve from last week, still below normal
\tExcluding Financials, total earnings down 13.0% so far
\tEstimate cuts running more than 5:1 over increases for both 2009 and 2010
\tTotal net income in 09, now expected to be 5.5% below 2008, was -2.5% on Thursday
\tP/Es based on 2009 estimates will prove to be to low as E plunges
\tFinancials red ink so far is almost 7x year ago levels.
\tBottom up estimate for S&P 500 now $69.04 in 2009, down from $71.34 on Tuesday and $72.41 a week ago, I expect it to be less than $60.
Total Net Income Growth
\tTotal net income expected to fall 29.0% in fourth quarter from a year ago, was -29.6% a week ago
\tNegative year over year growth in 4Q now expected for seven sectors
\tFinancials gush red ink in early going
\tFull year net income in 2009 expected to be down 5.5% from 2008 levels, following a 12.4% decline in 2008
\t1Q total net income now expected to be 15.1% below a year ago, was -13.7% on Thursday
\t Energy, Materials and Discretionary all expected to be down over 40% in 4Q
\tExcluding Financials, 4Q total net income down 15.5% from a year ago so far
\tEarly returns very ugly, the 153 (30.6%) that have reported are showing earnings of just $36.4B aggregate vs. total earnings of $60.3B a year ago and $70.7B in 3Q
\tEarly 2010 expectations looks for 21.3% growth over 2009
"not investment advice"
there's still a company in sf that's got 12k! in Finance?
This stock will experience phenomenal activity on one trading day, only to slump for the next five days. Not my cup of tea.
Hoopajoops, LTD
Gotta buy the bounce baby, hedge with detal care etf
Two comments:
you gotta go to my site man and watch this video it's rad
I love that song....jefferson airplane, right?
)
Citizen Scotto
Truckin'
YouTube - Grateful Dead - Truckin'
On the bright side, sitting here in the middle of Americas finest real estate collapse, the price drops are rapidly marching towards the coast. And I'm betting on three- two's falling well under 200,000 in the non gang banging areas. Patience rewards smart bears.
No problema--just pay the truckers in Cali warrents.
In the past, when excessive debt burdens were accumulated by government, they tended to do one of two things: either they defaultedthis is the Argentine solutionwhere you say, Ah, Im sorry, Im afraid were not going to be able to meet the interest payments this month, and never again will we make the interest payments.
The other scenario is inflation, where the real debt burden is eroded because the money that its denominated in loses value.
I dont think were really going to be out of the woods here until something of that sort happens to the huge debt burdens of the U.S. economy. Either these debts will have to be fundamentally written off in some way, or inflation will have to reduce the real burden.
Ferguson: Cancel U.S. Debt
Paul Kedrosky: Ferguson: Cancel U.S. Debt
It appears that the Obama admin is trending towards default.
guess restocking the run on guns isn't filling up the trucks
Did Conjure's global depression clock really strike? Last I checked it was at :59.7
If so, seems like the proper latin phrase would be Sic Transit Gloria Mundi.
Dirk,
Been following your updates to S&P500 earnings estimates. Cliff diving in action! What do you mean by Bottom up estimates?
Given analyst tendency to inflate estimates, Would it make sense to look at the bottom third of the estimates?
For quite some time now, I have been in Taleb mode, 90% cash and 3 month T-bills, and 10% high risk. Eventually need to hedge against devaluation/hyperinflation. What is a reasonable range for S&P500 bottom? 500-700?
--
from prior thread...
--
Treasuries, Stocks, etc etc are much less important as indicators when you factor in the fundamental massive currency imbalance we have in place.
Hc,
Hogwash! I have been a currency speculator for some 20 years and during that period USD has fluctuated by a factor of 2:1 against DM/Euro, Swiss franc and BP. Labor costs in Switzerland are lot higher than in the US and in GB they were lower (I dont know the current differential).
Jas
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Did Conjure's global depression clock really strike?
SomeArmchairEconomist | 01.28.09 - 6:03 pm | #
mp(Excellent) writes:
CONJURE'S BOND CRASH CLOCK
The time is now--
11:59:57
Conjure asks, "Do you know where your money is?"
"Have a nice day."
mp | 01.28.09 - 12:34 am |
I work with a few industries in the wood processing business that construct flooring, cabinets and case goods. Based on what I have seen first hand since ~November 08 is a decrease in volume that is on the order of 50+%. Many factories are idle several days a week and when operating, only for part of the day (
To measure the immediate impact of dozens of presentations and workshops by 2,500 business and 42 political leaders we have constructed the Intrade World Crisis Index.
Our admittedly unsophisticated sentiment index priced at 50.0 at the official opening of the meeting is comprised of eight equally weighted markets that measure the likelihood of recessions, depressions, increased unemployment, lower stock markets, and greater international tensions.
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We hope the global leaders convince our traders that 2009 will not be as bad as previously thought. We hope to see the index react to the keynote addresses.
You can see the updated Intrade World Crisis Index HERE.
Best,
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The 8 "World Crisis" Markets
Level
Germany Recession in 09
92.0
Japan Recession in 09
88.5
US -10% Depression in 09
20.0
Russian Debt Default in 09
39.0
China Growth Below 7.5% Q4 08
62.0
Unemployment in the US above 9% Q4 09
44.5
New Dow low in 09 from Nov 08 low.
62.7
Airstrike against Iran by US and/or Israel by end 09
23.7
Total (divided by 8.648 to get 50.
432.4
Index Value as at 2:00pm GMT, 28 Jan 2009
50.0
Barley(Excellent) writes:
C&c and Cobra and Dawg a "30% in a month has never happened" is why disagreed with C&C's comments yesterday where he said it was slow and gradual. My take faster and deeper than anything we have seen in our lifetimes.
Yes, absolutely. Someone switched off the economy in October. It sorta kicked back into low idle in January.
Unfortunately, it was an unstable airframe in a constant dogfight environment we'll call "the milieu of structured finance". Welcome to corkscrew stalling in a MiG-19 baby. Instant onset, no real remedy from available controls.
Was looking at latin phrases. Didn't get past the A's.. Liked this one:
Abyssus abyssum invocat
Terry, the global depression clock did indeed strike midnight.
Ponyless, scarier yet, the bond clock is only three seconds from midnite now.
Unfortunately, it was an unstable airframe in a constant dogfight environment we'll call "the milieu of structured finance". Welcome to corkscrew stalling in a MiG-19 baby. Instant onset, no real remedy from available controls.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins
New word for this group. Old word for a very few who know who they are; "furball." And we ain't talkin' Conjure's digestion.
If they couldn't see a record breaking decline one quarter in advance why should they be believed when they predict a mild recovery 3 quarters from now?
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.28.09 - 5:33 pm | #
Maybe David Lereah has found a new gig?
km4 writes:
"Putin-Dell slapdown at Davos..."
Methinks Putin doth protesteth too much.
Yes, Russia has a lot of good software people. And they aren't very good at hardware. But to go off on Dell like that at Davos makes him look pretty defensive, at best. Typical Russian Bear attitude, Putin's hero must be Kruschev.
YTL I'm from your neck of the woods I know an RN up there with 60,000 hours of seniority who is getting mandated to stay home due to light patient loads in the L&D. Seems like nobody is planning babies right now and births are off over 60%.
Russia v. Dell:
Dell is to computer hardware as Zil is to automobile manufacture.
Anonymous writes:
Dirk,
Been following your updates to S&P500 earnings estimates. Cliff diving in action! What do you mean by Bottom up estimates?
There are 2 ways of coming up with consensus estimates, the first is each brokerage firm has a strategist who looking at the economic variables, and his navel, comes up with an estimate. The consensus is the average of all those sorts of estimates. That would be top down.
The bottom up starts with the individual consensus estimates for each of the 500 firms in the index. The total expected earnings and total market cap are then used to compute a bottoms up EPS estimate for the index. S&P 500 index level/(total market Cap/total expected net income)= bottom up estimate
Putin needs to read a few "self-help" books. "History of the Neanderthal" should be on his reading list as well.
RN up there with 60,000 hours of seniority who is getting mandated to stay home due to light patient loads in the L&D. Seems like nobody is planning babies right now and births are off over 60%.
Hmmmm. "Somebody" predicted this here a very long time ago and it fell on deaf ears. We are not going to demographic out of things this time.
"Seems like nobody is planning babies right now and births are off over 60%.
10,000 Mosquitos"
I call BS. Unless conception is a better economic predictor than Roubini, 60% fewer births would mean that in April/May last year a lot of people changed family planning decisions.
"It appears that the Obama admin is trending towards default."
just transfer the debt to the labor pool
how many Hoover dams of manual labor will pay off this debt?
will the US lend us to china, armed with a shovel, cheap bicycle and rice bowl?
I don't fear for my job. Yet. but I did basically take a 15% pay cut last year and this year I had the opportunity to make that up on volume (I have to see 20% more patients this year).
Not going to get any better with socialized health care.
I would suggest (if you are primary care) opening a boutique practice.
They are doing very well.
I call BS. Unless conception is a better economic predictor than Roubini, 60% fewer births would mean that in April/May last year a lot of people changed family planning decisions. - Some Investor Guy
Redo your math. This time use "termination" rather than "conception."
@Dirk - I know I've remarked on this before but here's the S&P Estimates file link.
I'm guessing the bottoms up operating EPS estimates are missing because of foggy (or non-existing) guidance in many cases.
What's scary is we're back to Jan 2002 which itself was a recessionary environment.
ac | 01.28.09 - 5:37 pm | #
Damn, ac and I thought I felt queasy about this mess before...
Energy Econ - this is so much worse than the last recession. Every metric is worse, the conditions for recovery are weaker, it is not reassuring.
The CA truckers are getting doubly whacked with having to replace equipment as the new air quality standards are implemented. My guess is a lot of consolidation with existing prime contract firms getting their new equipment from owner-operators that will be out of work.
Think of this as the construction industry in Socal a couple years ago; the first 30% of the work force cut loose were the illegal laborers.
Dell is to computer hardware as Zil is to automobile manufacture.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.28.09 - 6:17 pm | #
I don't care who you are, that's funny!
Mr. Sparkle,
Yes - the pace of change for something as large as the US and global economies is akin to a jet under powered flight auguring into a mountainside (with props to RD IIRC for the original metaphor).
Obviously one data point from an upper Midwest hospital will not correlate to a national birth rate. But it is the lowest patient census in that department ever recorded during Dec and Jan. And it is reflective of two trends. People are holding off on expensive babies, and my friends at Allina confirm that elective procedures are dropping because of losses in coverage.
Zil is to automobile manufacture.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.28.09 - 6:17 pm | #
Zil was the #1 PC manufacturer at one point?
"I call BS"
it was always my impression that, at least in the contemporary US, birth trends follow economic trends pretty faithfully. a current baby bust seems more likely than not.
Last weekend I was taking photos by Rt 95 in RI and wanted a truck in the background for scale. I had to wait almost 5 minutes for one to come by. It's very unusual for so few trucks to be on that highway, even on a weekend day.
optimader writes:
YouTube
- Broadcast Yourself.? v=a...re=channel_page
optimader | 01.28.09 - 5:38 pm | #
Thanks for reposting. I lost it in the chaos that was yesterday.