Heartland Payment Systems (HPY) and Federal investigators have released more details about the technical nature of the massive data breach made public last week, but have refused to pinpoint the exact date that Heartland first became aware there may have been a problem with their network security. The date they settle on may well be the difference between market serendipity and an SEC investigation for insider trading, as an examination of stock sales made by Heartland CEO Robert O. Carr in the second half of 2008 raises some serious questions about just who knew what and when in the latest version of the worst-ever information security breach which has now spawned a class action lawsuit. (See Chart on site)
This normalizes the data for changes in insured employment. By these measures the current recession is already about the same severity as the '90/'91 recession.
While I applaud the normalization graph I think it misses a major countervailing factor. I qualified for UE in 1991 but not in 2009. I am far from alone in being a contract/1099/consultant worker. So, yes adjust for population but don't use "covered employment" as a substitute for the true work force.
cr writes: By these measures the current recession is already about the same severity as the '90/'91 recession.
## CR: of course you are correct. And I do enjoy as well as benefit on levels yet unimagined by my participation here. Hope you feel the same.
But, isn't this a bit like saying, 'You sure don't sweat much for a fat person.'? This descent into the several levels of Hell is a very interesting process. So very many get bogged down into the thinking process. It's time for us all to stop and consider what is next. Not next week or next year, rather think in terms of the shift beyond from the transactional nature of how we live. Sound utopian? Perhaps. Do I mean it as such? No.
The flower children, Marx, Mises et al were all peering beneath the drapes at what might be.
"This normalizes the data for changes in insured employment.
By these measures the current recession is already about the same severity as the '90/'91 recession."
While I applaud the normalization graph I think it misses a major countervailing factor. I qualified for UE in 1991 but not in 2009. I am far from alone in being a contract/1099/consultant worker. So, yes adjust for population but don't use "covered employment" as a substitute for the true work force.
I'm suspicious of the data series because it seems at odds with the unemployment data for, say, 1975 and 1982.
Was there really a bigger problem with joblessness in the mid-70s than in the early 80s?
It'll be much more enlightening to compare unemployment between all the major global players, not just looking at USA numbers in isolation.
A staggering number of countries are doing badly: China, Singapore, Korea, Japan, UK, Spain, Mexico, commodities countries, even oil producers.
Because of that, I'm not sure USA is the worst of the pack. Yeah, the headline decline is shocking, but I think the ripple effect to foreign countries are catching them by surprise.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins(Unrated) writes: \tlucifer(Excellent) writes: U6 is all that matters, especially in an economy with a scarcity of credit and rapidly rising unemployment levels.
That plus the decline in real income for the employed, keeping debt to income ratio high. âWe have a financial system that is run by private shareholders, managed by private institutions, and we'd like to do our best to preserve that system." Tim Geithner
WW1 and WW2 caused some of the most desirable improvements in the quality of human life after they were over.
I cannot say the same about economic crises except the "new Deal" in the US. In other countries, GD1 (and its sequelae) caused the rise of hitler, franco, mussolini and helped cement the power of stalin.
The headline rate is 4.2 percent (which is about 8.86 million).
But they're NOT counting migrant workers, of which 10 MILLION have lost their jobs in 3rd quarter alone (4th quarter not out yet). Neither are they counting brand new 7.1 million new graduates that will now need a job.
If you add all these, if 8.86 mil = 4.2 percent; then adding all these yields 12.3 percent unemployment! And this is based off of historically cheerleading Chinese Govt! (Ask any Chinese)
Dream on.. Dr. frankenstein cannot control his monster.
"We have a financial system that is run by private shareholders, managed by private institutions, and we'd like to do our best to preserve that system."
I cannot say the same about economic crises except the "new Deal" in the US. In other countries, GD1 (and its sequelae) caused the rise of hitler, franco, mussolini and helped cement the power of stalin. \t lucifer | 01.29.09 - 9:47 am | #
Old Scratch, far be it from me to intrude on your domain but there are those of us who note the UD GD1 produced FDR and thus we were not spared a centralized leadership.
Yes, but FDR could not do some of the things done by these other fine gentlemen. I would say that by promoting the 'new deal', he saved capitalism from itself.
//Old Scratch, far be it from me to intrude on your domain but there are those of us who note the UD GD1 produced FDR and thus we were not spared a centralized leadership.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 9:50 am | #//
Thankfully I still have my job but I have not gotten my expense check for December and have already paid my CC bill......severe cash flow issues at the company....
Ahh, Lucifer. You insidious bastard. Go back to your NSA cubicle and quit brandishing cliches that smack of hidden agendae.
And the roach race begins for the day on wallstreet. \t Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | \t \t \tHomepage | \t01.29.09 - 9:37 am | #
## And you are right Byz. The native American had it right, but so did the Red Guard. See, we're all in this together. We just do and we just are. Sexuality doesn't matter, neither does possessions held in some arrogation of natural law. There is a coperative effort that leads to a sustainable existence.The economy is a part of this, but certainly not an overriding part. It just is as well. The Red Guard stripped their leaders from power and sent them grubbing in tomato patches to let them have an opportunity to reconsider their selfishness. Think Deng. He came back to lead what has turned out to be a remarkable transformation. Do they have it right? No way. Are they fouling their nest? Of course.
What about us? For all our highminded attempts, we're scant better off than they. Think possibilities. Now that's power.
I, for one, don't believe the seasonal adjustments here make sense. The non-seasonal adjustments are hugely greater than the SA numbers...250k last week, and 600k greater for the last two weeks. This would be more than the SA's for one week.
How do you get by "ignoring" this type of difference...?
IF we didn't hire as many employees for this last X-mas season, and therefore many of the initial claims in January weren't baked in from previous years' temps, then the seaonal adjustments may consider part of the initial claims as being expected after a "normal" X-mas season. In this instance, I suspect the adjustments are probably not valid...
Any ideas?
The raw unadjusted data will come up here later this morning...
While I applaud the normalization graph I think it misses a major countervailing factor. I qualified for UE in 1991 but not in 2009. I am far from alone in being a contract/1099/consultant worker. So, yes adjust for population but don't use "covered employment" as a substitute for the true work force.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 9:33 am | #
Rob Dawg,
That comes out a bit in the U3 vs. U6 stats and CIVPART vs. EMRATIO...you are spot on IMNSHO, and that means 'less is more' when it comes to the U3 unemployment rate - a U3 value now is equivalent to a higher U3 value 20 years ago...
Where's Anonymous from yesterday? Someone needs to tell him that the markets are down 2% today which proves that forever and forever markets will be down and yesterday was the forever and forever top of the market.
I cannot say the same about economic crises except the "new Deal" in the US. In other countries, GD1 (and its sequelae) caused the rise of hitler, franco, mussolini and helped cement the power of stalin.
lucifer | 01.29.09 - 9:47 am | #
Old Scratch, far be it from me to intrude on your domain but there are those of us who note the UD GD1 produced FDR and thus we were not spared a centralized leadership.
Or one might say:
The Great Depression gave us a system more favorable to the rise of the next Hitler or Stalin as well as the next FDR.
Centralization can increase a country's capacity for good as well as evil.
Alas, too often it appears to accomplish the latter.
When Putin looked into the eyesof George W Bush he saw an IDIOT !
Now he is calling out Obama, Geithner, and BB.
Putin called out the United States directly in his speech, calling the current economic state a "perfect storm." "I just want to remind you that, just a year ago, American delegates speaking from this rostrum emphasised the US economy's fundamental stability and its cloudless prospects," he said. "Today, investment banks, the pride of Wall Street, have virtually ceased to exist. In just 12 months, they have posted losses exceeding the profits they made in the last 25 years. This example alone reflects the real situation better than any criticism."
"Excessive dependence on a single reserve currency is dangerous for the global economy," Putin said, calling for multiple reserve currencies in addition to the dollar.
"The time for enlightenment has come," he went on. "We must calmly, and without gloating, assess the root causes of this situation and try to peek into the future."
1] An economically depressed populace coming under the thrall of a popular 'revolutionary' leader (ask werner S)
2] A system where the PTB keep on holding on to their 'precious' resulting in a massive violent popular backlash.
3] A system where the PTB keep on holding on to their 'precious' resulting in a generalized loss of confidence in the system. \t lucifer | \t \t \t \t01.29.09 - 10:00 am
//"The time for enlightenment has come," he went on. "We must calmly, and without gloating, assess the root causes of this situation and try to peek into the future."
km4 | 01.29.09 - 10:04 am | #//
Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Policy makers must stop declines in asset prices to revive the U.S. economy in 2010 and curb rising unemployment, according to Bill Gross, co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., the worlds biggest bond fund.
You cant bail out everyone, yet economic recovery is not possible unless certain critical asset sectors are not only reliquefied but rejuvenated in price, Gross wrote in his February investment outlook posted today on the firms Web site.
citizen energyecon(Very Good) writes: \t.........here is the unadjusted U3 - U6 spread over the last ten years: citizen energyecon | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 10:00 am | #
That shows what I have observerd in the tech biz, the jobs that went away in the dot.bomb have never returned as FT emplotees, contractors were the preferred method of increasing headcount.
"The total released by the department doesn't include about 1.7 million people receiving benefits under an extended unemployment compensation program authorized by Congress last summer. That means the total number of recipients is actually closer to 6.5 million people."
Bernanke and Geithner could always click their ruby slippers together.. wait.. that won't work..
Nobody is in control!
// 29 (Bloomberg) -- Policy makers must stop declines in asset prices to revive the U.S. economy in 2010 and curb rising unemployment, according to Bill Gross, co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., the worlds biggest bond fund.//
While I applaud the normalization graph I think it misses a major countervailing factor. I qualified for UE in 1991 but not in 2009. I am far from alone in being a contract/1099/consultant worker. So, yes adjust for population but don't use "covered employment" as a substitute for the true work force. \t Rob Dawg | \t \t \tHomepage | \t01.29.09 - 9:33 am | # Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 9:33 am | #
Has anyone done a reasonably accurate guesstimate-chart based on contractor unemployment? I guess there really isn't any place to get that data from....
The US also has far more families that rely on two incomes just to get by, or not really get by. If one person loses their job, that can destroy the whole family. So, if each person employed is contributing a lower percent toward minimal household subsistence, the population increase is not as meaningful.
We have never seen the effects of a "generalized system failure" in a 21st century world.
I have always considered that possibility, though I do not think it will play like many survivalists and doomers think. It will be far worse.
//Lucifer recently perused the contents of his Open Only If You Can Handle The Truth envelope, I see.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 10:12 am |//
6.5 million unemployed - NOT including 1099 contractors. This figure increases 2.6 million every month. By the end of June we could have 20-million unemployed?
lucifer(Excellent) writes: What happens when J6P loses faith in our current system and has no way to escape the obvious reality?
Shorty was taught to keep his head to the sky, and never cry
But the streets left him to die, now it's death in his eye
Livin' a sin of hitmen, a sinister grin
From be-ginning to end, in it to win
Evil rebels, doin' what we doin' in the ghetto
Thinkin' if we was clever we can deceive the devil
You can't win, your life be end, try again
Shorty said, Why we born again to die again?
That's what I said when I realized I had a gift
To uplift and be one of Allah's advocates
Teach the youth and speak the truth
Show em what peace can do when it'll reach for you
And my reward won't be jewels or cheese, it's even better
I can be one of the greatest MC's ever
If I tell em they intelligent women and great men
And live, stop waitin for the world to end.
The US also has far more families that rely on two incomes just to get by, or not really get by. If one person loses their job, that can destroy the whole family. bk | 01.29.09 - 10:14 am | #
Thati is the problem with using joint income to caculate the house you can afford. The likelyhood of one or more earner losing employment increases by >50%, leading to financial troubles. If someone is in a home that cost more than 3X annual income of the leading earner, you were playing with fire.
Ironically, that is the most desired outcome. A faster drop is more likely to wake up people than a slower drop.
//6.5 million unemployed - NOT including 1099 contractors. This figure increases 2.6 million every month. By the end of June we could have 20-million unemployed?
Black Star Ranch | 01.29.09 - 10:17 am | #//
Changing rather dramatically, here is the unadjusted U3 - U6 spread over the last ten years citizen energyecon | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 10:00 am | #
----- Just earned yourself a promotion in ye ol' CR Companion.
Thanks for the information. Remind me to look at it when the newest number comes out. I'll take the "over 7%" bet just for the risk/reward of "CR Cred".
You cant bail out everyone, yet economic recovery is not possible unless certain critical asset sectors are not only reliquefied but rejuvenated in price, Gross wrote in his February investment outlook posted today on the firms Web site.
We have never seen the effects of a "generalized system failure" in a 21st century world.
Disagree. You can examine the conditions from the Palestinian territories and the situation in Lebanon after the Israel attack, or the conditions prevailing in Baghdad at the nadir of American efforts or in Somalia.
It's pretty clear what it will look like. It just hasn't been your mom's house that gets bulldozed 'cause a militant shot at a tank from the corner rosebush.
I have always considered that possibility, though I do not think it will play like many survivalists and doomers think. It will be far worse.
Mistletoe killing an oak --
Rats gnawing cables in two --
Moths making holes in a cloak --
How they must love what they do!
Yes -- and we Little Folk too,
We are busy as they --
Working our works out of view --
Watch, and you'll see it some day!
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
What others have said about CRBot: Gary writes: This CRbot is pretty nifty. EvilHenryPaulson writes: CRBot is great on mobiles Loudocracy writes:
Thank god CRbot spared me from that dead thread. Hoopajoops writes: Posting a test message from the IRC Channel... THIS THING ROCKS
CRBot: Killing dead threads deader since last week.
Yes, but the world outside those places was reasonably OK. I am not sure that would be the case in my scenarios.
Those societies were also not dependent on most people being reasonably honest to function properly.
//Disagree. You can examine the conditions from the Palestinian territories and the situation in Lebanon after the Israel attack, or the conditions prevailing in Baghdad at the nadir of American efforts or in Somalia.//
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins... the Picts are the so-called "primitive forgottens" in any empire that have been suppressed, but never fully eradicated.
America still has a few relatively powerful and numerous Indian tribes with land bases, for example - the Navajo and Cherokee come to mind. The Haudenosaunee (Iroquois) of New York never went away and they have done a pretty good job of being Picts on the frontiers of the Empire State, with their casinos, smoke shops, land claims and periodic threats to block off highways. But they have done it so skillfully that a good deal of the non Indian populace (many of whom are employed by said Indians) would prefer the state not to disturb them overmuch.
Don't think Christian wacko survivalists only; there are all sorts of "tribes" (not just Indian) in America who are just going to keep on keepin' on.
I seriously think more businesses should pay contract 1099 labor instead hiring employees. Soon more would understand the hidden cost of taxes and benefits they ignore as an employee.
Wall Street likes unemployment. It doesn't like losses, and a bevy of companies are reporting heavy losses today. It has nothing to do with the report about unemployment claims. In fact, that alone would cause a gain in the Market. So, the losses combined with the lack of bipartisanship regarding the stimulus package legislation will make for a drop in the market today. Don't worry, it will pass the Senate, and when it does, the Market will reward the act resoundingly, even though more massive layoffs will be announced alongside the Senate's bipartisanship.
Economist Moe Howard 3SU writes:
I seriously think more businesses should pay contract 1099 labor instead hiring employees. Soon more would understand the hidden cost of taxes and benefits they ignore as an employee.
Economist Moe Howard 3SU | 01.29.09 - 10:34 am | #
That's increasingly where we are headed, although they are now calling it consulting. I know many former Accounting/Finance people who were former permanent employess and are now dispossessed and relegated to contract work. It's euphemistically referred to as temporary consulting engagements, but it is effectively rent-a-hack.
Morocco,
The market likes companies firing, it doesn't however like unemployment. I agree it likes lowered earnings even more, but it always cheers the layoff news and then seems to realize what this might mean in general economic terms when unemployment rises. Stupid.
"By these measures the current recession is already about the same severity as the '90/'91 recession."
I look forward to your clear and concise charts that give a much clear picture than as compared to bs f#@! with the numbers main stream press releases. However, I would be interested to see a plot, taking into account more details such as this: Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
"The total released by the department doesn't include about 1.7 million people receiving benefits under an extended unemployment compensation program authorized by Congress last summer. That means the total number of recipients is actually closer to 6.5 million people."
Grant it I am not advocating only worst case assessments but I think somewhere in the middle may be more accurate. The '90/91' recession when compared to the present seemed as if I blinked I would have missed it, which leads me to believe the devil is in more of the details.
Not to ramble on, but 90/91 and seemed negligible. This time I think everyone has been and continues to be overly optimistic. I shunned the optimists and made adjustments and my 401s are down avg 6% instead of the 40%+ abyss; I live in the an area in the South East where the economy is better than most and I have already been witness to foreclosures, layoffs, job loss, etc. much more so than 90/91.
Lucky for me as an employer my people where all commission based. I couldn't put up with the bull crap of today. I saw first hand very few had or care what all the deductions on their pay stub were. Then there are the hidden costs they don't even see. They just wanted to see how many Fun Coupons they got. Business will get real sharp and the bottom line is even less jobs. I am waiting the faceless fast food restaurant.
Cancel the H1b and L1 temporary visas. This action alone will open up a lot of Information Technology jobs for Americans and Legal Residents. It's about time our government takes care of it's citizens first. India, China and England are protecting their citizens shouldn't we do the same?
PARIS (Reuters) Hundreds of thousands of teachers, nurses, factory workers and plumbers marched through French cities on Thursday to demand pay rises and protection for jobs.
Economist Moe Howard 3SU writes:
I seriously think more businesses should pay contract 1099 labor instead hiring employees. Soon more would understand the hidden cost of taxes and benefits they ignore as an employee.
Economist Moe Howard 3SU | 01.29.09 - 10:34 am | #
Just remember to pay self employment tax unlike our new assclown Treasury Secretary.
km4 writes:
PARIS (Reuters) Hundreds of thousands of teachers, nurses, factory workers and plumbers marched through French cities on Thursday to demand pay rises and protection for jobs.
In the USA they do what ?
km4 | 01.29.09 - 11:32 am | #
o way!
I'm sure this will blow over soon.
self-employeed
2 million freshly unemployed and the Republicans vote against stimulus?
I guess they truly do want 20 years in the wilderness.
20 years from Hoover to Eisenhower.
Someday this war's gonna end...
No no no no I don't work anymore. I'm tired of waking up to go to the door....
Or something like that.
Nostrovia,
read first
something about cliff diving...
i could be first
Nemo
I hate CRbot.
first?
Badabum...big.
The pig is in the python.
First?
CR should rotate those graphs by 180.
I hate you Haloscan, you shatter my dreams.
"By these measures the current recession is already about the same severity as the '90/'91 recession."
Pffff...and by then the RTC was up and running and the mess was getting cleaned up.
Nostrovia,
"Did Heartland CEO Make Insider Trades?"
Heartland Payment Systems (HPY) and Federal investigators have released more details about the technical nature of the massive data breach made public last week, but have refused to pinpoint the exact date that Heartland first became aware there may have been a problem with their network security. The date they settle on may well be the difference between market serendipity and an SEC investigation for insider trading, as an examination of stock sales made by Heartland CEO Robert O. Carr in the second half of 2008 raises some serious questions about just who knew what and when in the latest version of the worst-ever information security breach which has now spawned a class action lawsuit. (See Chart on site)
Did Heartland CEO Make Insider Trades? : Information Security Resources
Cliff-climbing?
Erm, U6?
/sound of crickets
C
This normalizes the data for changes in insured employment.
By these measures the current recession is already about the same severity as the '90/'91 recession.
While I applaud the normalization graph I think it misses a major countervailing factor. I qualified for UE in 1991 but not in 2009. I am far from alone in being a contract/1099/consultant worker. So, yes adjust for population but don't use "covered employment" as a substitute for the true work force.
cr writes: By these measures the current recession is already about the same severity as the '90/'91 recession.
## CR: of course you are correct. And I do enjoy as well as benefit on levels yet unimagined by my participation here. Hope you feel the same.
But, isn't this a bit like saying, 'You sure don't sweat much for a fat person.'? This descent into the several levels of Hell is a very interesting process. So very many get bogged down into the thinking process. It's time for us all to stop and consider what is next. Not next week or next year, rather think in terms of the shift beyond from the transactional nature of how we live. Sound utopian? Perhaps. Do I mean it as such? No.
The flower children, Marx, Mises et al were all peering beneath the drapes at what might be.
U6 is all that matters, especially in an economy with a scarcity of credit and rapidly rising unemployment levels.
Ditto what Dawg said.
Do we or do we not have a much higher %age of self-employed individuals in this country now as opposed to 1991-92?
You can not compare the UE rates if that measure is off.
Rob Dawg,
"I qualified for UE in 1991 but not in 2009. I am far from alone in being a contract/1099/consultant worker."
You lucky, lucky, bastard. Oh! how I'd love to be spat in the face!
Nostrovia,
I thought forecast was for lower. How I the talking heads spinning this?
"You might ask yourself, how did I get here?"
Lagging indicator. Buy now before or be priced out forever.
And the roach race begins for the day on wallstreet.
Let's not forget about the higher number of 1099 employees and others that aren't plain-vanilla W-2 FT folks.
I would be curious to see these trend between the U-3 & U-6 numbers. Is the spread staying steady or changing?
AstraZeneca is cutting over 15,000 jobs.
"This normalizes the data for changes in insured employment.
By these measures the current recession is already about the same severity as the '90/'91 recession."
While I applaud the normalization graph I think it misses a major countervailing factor. I qualified for UE in 1991 but not in 2009. I am far from alone in being a contract/1099/consultant worker. So, yes adjust for population but don't use "covered employment" as a substitute for the true work force.
I'm suspicious of the data series because it seems at odds with the unemployment data for, say, 1975 and 1982.
Was there really a bigger problem with joblessness in the mid-70s than in the early 80s?
You lucky, lucky, bastard. Oh! how I'd love to be spat in the face!
Comrade Misean is Dope | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 9:36 am | #
You got spat in the face? Man, I wish I got spat in the face. If I got spat in the face I'd have to sign a receipt for company property.
lucifer(Excellent) writes:
U6 is all that matters, especially in an economy with a scarcity of credit and rapidly rising unemployment levels.
You are a very fretful Mephisto. Shouldn't the lord of evil be less of a worrier?
war and strife are often better outcomes than economic collapse.
//You are a very fretful Mephisto. Shouldn't the lord of evil be less of a worrier?
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 9:39 am | #//
Have the auto companies started building new cars yet? Last I heard they were shuting down till late Jan.
It'll be much more enlightening to compare unemployment between all the major global players, not just looking at USA numbers in isolation.
A staggering number of countries are doing badly: China, Singapore, Korea, Japan, UK, Spain, Mexico, commodities countries, even oil producers.
Because of that, I'm not sure USA is the worst of the pack. Yeah, the headline decline is shocking, but I think the ripple effect to foreign countries are catching them by surprise.
Counterpointer(Excellent) writes:
Cliff-climbing?
Erm, U6?
If that is a BLS measure, they are next due to report on Feb, umm, 9.
lucifer(Excellent) writes:
U6 is all that matters, especially in an economy with a scarcity of credit and rapidly rising unemployment levels.
You are a very fretful Mephisto. Shouldn't the lord of evil be less of a worrier?
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 9:39 am | #
I imagine Lucifer is concerned more about the actual number of idle hands to corrupt than the massaged figure some of his best earthly demons produce.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins(Unrated) writes:
\tlucifer(Excellent) writes:
U6 is all that matters, especially in an economy with a scarcity of credit and rapidly rising unemployment levels.
That plus the decline in real income for the employed, keeping debt to income ratio high.
âWe have a financial system that is run by private shareholders, managed by private institutions, and we'd like to do our best to preserve that system."
Tim Geithner
WW1 and WW2 caused some of the most desirable improvements in the quality of human life after they were over.
I cannot say the same about economic crises except the "new Deal" in the US. In other countries, GD1 (and its sequelae) caused the rise of hitler, franco, mussolini and helped cement the power of stalin.
Also, don't just use the headline numbers for foreign countries. Consider this:
China's unemployment rate climbs
The headline rate is 4.2 percent (which is about 8.86 million).
But they're NOT counting migrant workers, of which 10 MILLION have lost their jobs in 3rd quarter alone (4th quarter not out yet). Neither are they counting brand new 7.1 million new graduates that will now need a job.
If you add all these, if 8.86 mil = 4.2 percent; then adding all these yields 12.3 percent unemployment! And this is based off of historically cheerleading Chinese Govt! (Ask any Chinese)
Dream on.. Dr. frankenstein cannot control his monster.
"We have a financial system that is run by private shareholders, managed by private institutions, and we'd like to do our best to preserve that system."
Tim Geithner
I cannot say the same about economic crises except the "new Deal" in the US. In other countries, GD1 (and its sequelae) caused the rise of hitler, franco, mussolini and helped cement the power of stalin.
\t
lucifer | 01.29.09 - 9:47 am | #
Old Scratch, far be it from me to intrude on your domain but there are those of us who note the UD GD1 produced FDR and thus we were not spared a centralized leadership.
Goodness, Lucifer, I'd never have guessed the causes and effects were so direct.
Thought the devil was in the details. ;0)
I notice idled workers today are having a harder time than in 90 - 91 finding new employment, based on continuing claims.
Yes, but FDR could not do some of the things done by these other fine gentlemen. I would say that by promoting the 'new deal', he saved capitalism from itself.
//Old Scratch, far be it from me to intrude on your domain but there are those of us who note the UD GD1 produced FDR and thus we were not spared a centralized leadership.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 9:50 am | #//
Thankfully I still have my job but I have not gotten my expense check for December and have already paid my CC bill......severe cash flow issues at the company....
This week my brave CEO will report earnings. I always wonder if he was a butcher in his previous life.
Ahh, Lucifer. You insidious bastard. Go back to your NSA cubicle and quit brandishing cliches that smack of hidden agendae.
And the roach race begins for the day on wallstreet.
| \t01.29.09 - 9:37 am | #
\t Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | \t \t \tHomepage
## And you are right Byz. The native American had it right, but so did the Red Guard. See, we're all in this together. We just do and we just are. Sexuality doesn't matter, neither does possessions held in some arrogation of natural law. There is a coperative effort that leads to a sustainable existence.The economy is a part of this, but certainly not an overriding part. It just is as well. The Red Guard stripped their leaders from power and sent them grubbing in tomato patches to let them have an opportunity to reconsider their selfishness. Think Deng. He came back to lead what has turned out to be a remarkable transformation. Do they have it right? No way. Are they fouling their nest? Of course.
What about us? For all our highminded attempts, we're scant better off than they. Think possibilities. Now that's power.
I, for one, don't believe the seasonal adjustments here make sense. The non-seasonal adjustments are hugely greater than the SA numbers...250k last week, and 600k greater for the last two weeks. This would be more than the SA's for one week.
How do you get by "ignoring" this type of difference...?
IF we didn't hire as many employees for this last X-mas season, and therefore many of the initial claims in January weren't baked in from previous years' temps, then the seaonal adjustments may consider part of the initial claims as being expected after a "normal" X-mas season. In this instance, I suspect the adjustments are probably not valid...
Any ideas?
The raw unadjusted data will come up here later this morning...
U.S. Department of Labor: Employment & Training Administration
(ETA) News Releases
The beatings for the long bonds continue.
While I applaud the normalization graph I think it misses a major countervailing factor. I qualified for UE in 1991 but not in 2009. I am far from alone in being a contract/1099/consultant worker. So, yes adjust for population but don't use "covered employment" as a substitute for the true work force.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 9:33 am | #
Rob Dawg,
That comes out a bit in the U3 vs. U6 stats and CIVPART vs. EMRATIO...you are spot on IMNSHO, and that means 'less is more' when it comes to the U3 unemployment rate - a U3 value now is equivalent to a higher U3 value 20 years ago...
The three things we should be concerned about-
1] An economically depressed populace coming under the thrall of a popular 'revolutionary' leader (ask werner S)
2] A system where the PTB keep on holding on to their 'precious' resulting in a massive violent popular backlash.
3] A system where the PTB keep on holding on to their 'precious' resulting in a generalized loss of confidence in the system.
would be curious to see these trend between the U-3 & U-6 numbers. Is the spread staying steady or changing?
yagij | 01.29.09 - 9:37 am | #
Changing rather dramatically, here is the unadjusted U3 - U6 spread over the last ten years:
http://energyecon.blogspot.com/2009/01/makes-me-go-hmmmmu6-u3-spread-unadj.html
Where's Anonymous from yesterday? Someone needs to tell him that the markets are down 2% today which proves that forever and forever markets will be down and yesterday was the forever and forever top of the market.
Toward Haloscan:
KHHAAAAN!
246 visitors online. Should be above 600 on Monday.
I cannot say the same about economic crises except the "new Deal" in the US. In other countries, GD1 (and its sequelae) caused the rise of hitler, franco, mussolini and helped cement the power of stalin.
lucifer | 01.29.09 - 9:47 am | #
Old Scratch, far be it from me to intrude on your domain but there are those of us who note the UD GD1 produced FDR and thus we were not spared a centralized leadership.
Or one might say:
The Great Depression gave us a system more favorable to the rise of the next Hitler or Stalin as well as the next FDR.
Centralization can increase a country's capacity for good as well as evil.
Alas, too often it appears to accomplish the latter.
WAVE 5
BONDS CRUSHING
Does that include part-time jobs that are not officially considered part of the U6 stats?
//Changing rather dramatically, here is the unadjusted U3 - U6 spread over the last ten years:
Blogger: Page not found
unadj.html
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 10:00 am | #//
When Putin looked into the eyesof George W Bush he saw an IDIOT !
Now he is calling out Obama, Geithner, and BB.
Putin called out the United States directly in his speech, calling the current economic state a "perfect storm." "I just want to remind you that, just a year ago, American delegates speaking from this rostrum emphasised the US economy's fundamental stability and its cloudless prospects," he said. "Today, investment banks, the pride of Wall Street, have virtually ceased to exist. In just 12 months, they have posted losses exceeding the profits they made in the last 25 years. This example alone reflects the real situation better than any criticism."
"Excessive dependence on a single reserve currency is dangerous for the global economy," Putin said, calling for multiple reserve currencies in addition to the dollar.
"The time for enlightenment has come," he went on. "We must calmly, and without gloating, assess the root causes of this situation and try to peek into the future."
The three things we should be concerned about-
1] An economically depressed populace coming under the thrall of a popular 'revolutionary' leader (ask werner S)
2] A system where the PTB keep on holding on to their 'precious' resulting in a massive violent popular backlash.
3] A system where the PTB keep on holding on to their 'precious' resulting in a generalized loss of confidence in the system.
\t lucifer | \t \t \t \t01.29.09 - 10:00 am
## Have you read the news lately?
Putin is more in touch with reality...
//"The time for enlightenment has come," he went on. "We must calmly, and without gloating, assess the root causes of this situation and try to peek into the future."
km4 | 01.29.09 - 10:04 am | #//
pimpco
Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Policy makers must stop declines in asset prices to revive the U.S. economy in 2010 and curb rising unemployment, according to Bill Gross, co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., the worlds biggest bond fund.
You cant bail out everyone, yet economic recovery is not possible unless certain critical asset sectors are not only reliquefied but rejuvenated in price, Gross wrote in his February investment outlook posted today on the firms Web site.
there's a lot wrong with this thought process
U.S. Dec. new-home sales down 14.7% to record 331,000 pace
Yes, but what i am talking about is far bigger in magnitude than what you have seen till now.
//## Have you read the news lately?
volker the viking | 01.29.09 - 10:04 am | #//
citizen energyecon(Very Good) writes:
\t.........here is the unadjusted U3 - U6 spread over the last ten years:
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 10:00 am | #
That shows what I have observerd in the tech biz, the jobs that went away in the dot.bomb have never returned as FT emplotees, contractors were the preferred method of increasing headcount.
The Pimp master must be hurting.
Outsider writes:
Ditto what Dawg said.
Do we or do we not have a much higher %age of self-employed individuals in this country now as opposed to 1991-92?
I didn't even know what a 1099 was in 1991-92. I think that the % of workers labeled as 1099 today vs. then is at least double.
"The total released by the department doesn't include about 1.7 million people receiving benefits under an extended unemployment compensation program authorized by Congress last summer. That means the total number of recipients is actually closer to 6.5 million people."
See:
Workers receiving unemployment at 25-year high - Yahoo! Finance
Bernanke and Geithner could always click their ruby slippers together.. wait.. that won't work..
Nobody is in control!
// 29 (Bloomberg) -- Policy makers must stop declines in asset prices to revive the U.S. economy in 2010 and curb rising unemployment, according to Bill Gross, co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., the worlds biggest bond fund.//
Did Rubini say 6 million more will be unemployed?
While I applaud the normalization graph I think it misses a major countervailing factor. I qualified for UE in 1991 but not in 2009. I am far from alone in being a contract/1099/consultant worker. So, yes adjust for population but don't use "covered employment" as a substitute for the true work force.
| \t01.29.09 - 9:33 am | #
\t Rob Dawg | \t \t \tHomepage
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 9:33 am | #
Has anyone done a reasonably accurate guesstimate-chart based on contractor unemployment?
I guess there really isn't any place to get that data from....
Roubini was talking about the best case situation (if things work).
//REBear writes:
Did Rubini say 6 million more will be unemployed?
REBear | 01.29.09 - 10:09 am | #//
lucifer: think bigger
AAAHH, these numbers are just for W-2 loosers.
I've argued this point in the past. There needs to be spread compression in wage rates.
and think positive outcome
lucifer writes:
Yes, but what i am talking about is far bigger in magnitude than what you have seen till now.
Lucifer recently perused the contents of his Open Only If You Can Handle The Truth envelope, I see.
So, will CR have a new home sales post up withing the next 20 minutes?v I'll take the under.
Look! We're off the lows.
The real question is-
What happens when J6P loses faith in our current system and has no way to escape the obvious reality?
//volker the viking writes:
lucifer: think bigger
volker the viking | 01.29.09 - 10:11 am | #//
Joanna(Unrated) writes:
I guess there really isn't any place to get that data from....
IRS could provide the data. They get the other side of all the wage tax stubs.
Do we or do we not have a much higher %age of self-employed individuals in this country now as opposed to 1991-92?
Outsider | 01.29.09 - 9:36 am | #
Looks like less.
http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2004/07/art2full.pdf
The US also has far more families that rely on two incomes just to get by, or not really get by. If one person loses their job, that can destroy the whole family. So, if each person employed is contributing a lower percent toward minimal household subsistence, the population increase is not as meaningful.
JAN 29 (REUTERS) - FREDDIE MAC (FRE) AVERAGE U.S. MORTGAGE RATES (PERCENT) FOR WEEKS ENDING:
JAN 29 JAN 22 YEAR AGO
30-YR 5.10 5.12 5.68
15-YR 4.80 4.80 5.17
5-YR ARM 5.27 5.24 5.32
Lyon?
New home sales are non-existant. 331k
3M 4 q profit down 37%
3M Profit Falls 37 Percent As Sales Decline - wcco.com
I remember when Rubini was saying 9 million unemployed....he is turning more optomistic by saying 6 million....
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins,
We have never seen the effects of a "generalized system failure" in a 21st century world.
I have always considered that possibility, though I do not think it will play like many survivalists and doomers think. It will be far worse.
//Lucifer recently perused the contents of his Open Only If You Can Handle The Truth envelope, I see.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 10:12 am |//
....what we DO know:
6.5 million unemployed - NOT including 1099 contractors. This figure increases 2.6 million every month. By the end of June we could have 20-million unemployed?
lucifer(Excellent) writes:
What happens when J6P loses faith in our current system and has no way to escape the obvious reality?
Shorty was taught to keep his head to the sky, and never cry
But the streets left him to die, now it's death in his eye
Livin' a sin of hitmen, a sinister grin
From be-ginning to end, in it to win
Evil rebels, doin' what we doin' in the ghetto
Thinkin' if we was clever we can deceive the devil
You can't win, your life be end, try again
Shorty said, Why we born again to die again?
That's what I said when I realized I had a gift
To uplift and be one of Allah's advocates
Teach the youth and speak the truth
Show em what peace can do when it'll reach for you
And my reward won't be jewels or cheese, it's even better
I can be one of the greatest MC's ever
If I tell em they intelligent women and great men
And live, stop waitin for the world to end.
This is GREAT news! Those productivity numbers should rocket and just think about all those efficiencies charts!!
The US also has far more families that rely on two incomes just to get by, or not really get by. If one person loses their job, that can destroy the whole family.
bk | 01.29.09 - 10:14 am | #
Thati is the problem with using joint income to caculate the house you can afford. The likelyhood of one or more earner losing employment increases by >50%, leading to financial troubles. If someone is in a home that cost more than 3X annual income of the leading earner, you were playing with fire.
Ironically, that is the most desired outcome. A faster drop is more likely to wake up people than a slower drop.
//6.5 million unemployed - NOT including 1099 contractors. This figure increases 2.6 million every month. By the end of June we could have 20-million unemployed?
Black Star Ranch | 01.29.09 - 10:17 am | #//
I remember when Rubini was saying 9 million unemployed....he is turning more optomistic by saying 6 million....
I think he's saying that based on expectations that we're going to pass this stimulus package which will certainly save 3 million jobs.
In other words, the only reason countries have problems with unemployment is because they don't borrow and spend enough.
No country ever thought to borrow and spend their way to prosperity before these economic geniuses came along.
"No country ever thought to borrow and spend their way to prosperity"
....and I bet after this experiment, no other country will try either....
Changing rather dramatically, here is the unadjusted U3 - U6 spread over the last ten years
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 10:00 am | #
-----
Just earned yourself a promotion in ye ol' CR Companion.
Thanks for the information. Remind me to look at it when the newest number comes out. I'll take the "over 7%" bet just for the risk/reward of "CR Cred".
From Bill Gross:
Shorter version- "Bail me out first."
lucifer(Excellent) writes:
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins,
We have never seen the effects of a "generalized system failure" in a 21st century world.
Disagree. You can examine the conditions from the Palestinian territories and the situation in Lebanon after the Israel attack, or the conditions prevailing in Baghdad at the nadir of American efforts or in Somalia.
It's pretty clear what it will look like. It just hasn't been your mom's house that gets bulldozed 'cause a militant shot at a tank from the corner rosebush.
I have always considered that possibility, though I do not think it will play like many survivalists and doomers think. It will be far worse.
Mistletoe killing an oak --
Rats gnawing cables in two --
Moths making holes in a cloak --
How they must love what they do!
Yes -- and we Little Folk too,
We are busy as they --
Working our works out of view --
Watch, and you'll see it some day!
New Thread: Record Low New Homes Sales in December ( 0 comments
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Yes, but the world outside those places was reasonably OK. I am not sure that would be the case in my scenarios.
Those societies were also not dependent on most people being reasonably honest to function properly.
//Disagree. You can examine the conditions from the Palestinian territories and the situation in Lebanon after the Israel attack, or the conditions prevailing in Baghdad at the nadir of American efforts or in Somalia.//
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins... the Picts are the so-called "primitive forgottens" in any empire that have been suppressed, but never fully eradicated.
America still has a few relatively powerful and numerous Indian tribes with land bases, for example - the Navajo and Cherokee come to mind. The Haudenosaunee (Iroquois) of New York never went away and they have done a pretty good job of being Picts on the frontiers of the Empire State, with their casinos, smoke shops, land claims and periodic threats to block off highways. But they have done it so skillfully that a good deal of the non Indian populace (many of whom are employed by said Indians) would prefer the state not to disturb them overmuch.
Don't think Christian wacko survivalists only; there are all sorts of "tribes" (not just Indian) in America who are just going to keep on keepin' on.
I seriously think more businesses should pay contract 1099 labor instead hiring employees. Soon more would understand the hidden cost of taxes and benefits they ignore as an employee.
Wall Street likes unemployment. It doesn't like losses, and a bevy of companies are reporting heavy losses today. It has nothing to do with the report about unemployment claims. In fact, that alone would cause a gain in the Market. So, the losses combined with the lack of bipartisanship regarding the stimulus package legislation will make for a drop in the market today. Don't worry, it will pass the Senate, and when it does, the Market will reward the act resoundingly, even though more massive layoffs will be announced alongside the Senate's bipartisanship.
Economist Moe Howard 3SU writes:
I seriously think more businesses should pay contract 1099 labor instead hiring employees. Soon more would understand the hidden cost of taxes and benefits they ignore as an employee.
Economist Moe Howard 3SU | 01.29.09 - 10:34 am | #
That's increasingly where we are headed, although they are now calling it consulting. I know many former Accounting/Finance people who were former permanent employess and are now dispossessed and relegated to contract work. It's euphemistically referred to as temporary consulting engagements, but it is effectively rent-a-hack.
Morocco,
The market likes companies firing, it doesn't however like unemployment. I agree it likes lowered earnings even more, but it always cheers the layoff news and then seems to realize what this might mean in general economic terms when unemployment rises. Stupid.
"By these measures the current recession is already about the same severity as the '90/'91 recession."
I look forward to your clear and concise charts that give a much clear picture than as compared to bs f#@! with the numbers main stream press releases. However, I would be interested to see a plot, taking into account more details such as this:
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
"The total released by the department doesn't include about 1.7 million people receiving benefits under an extended unemployment compensation program authorized by Congress last summer. That means the total number of recipients is actually closer to 6.5 million people."
and this (see A-12 Alternative measures of labor underutilization):
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
Grant it I am not advocating only worst case assessments but I think somewhere in the middle may be more accurate. The '90/91' recession when compared to the present seemed as if I blinked I would have missed it, which leads me to believe the devil is in more of the details.
Not to ramble on, but 90/91 and seemed negligible. This time I think everyone has been and continues to be overly optimistic. I shunned the optimists and made adjustments and my 401s are down avg 6% instead of the 40%+ abyss; I live in the an area in the South East where the economy is better than most and I have already been witness to foreclosures, layoffs, job loss, etc. much more so than 90/91.
Looks like another site is tracking this phenonemon of job losses and unemployment....
Welcome to JobImplode.com
Lucky for me as an employer my people where all commission based. I couldn't put up with the bull crap of today. I saw first hand very few had or care what all the deductions on their pay stub were. Then there are the hidden costs they don't even see. They just wanted to see how many Fun Coupons they got. Business will get real sharp and the bottom line is even less jobs. I am waiting the faceless fast food restaurant.
Cancel the H1b and L1 temporary visas. This action alone will open up a lot of Information Technology jobs for Americans and Legal Residents. It's about time our government takes care of it's citizens first. India, China and England are protecting their citizens shouldn't we do the same?
Black Star Ranch writes:
"No country ever thought to borrow and spend their way to prosperity"
....and I bet after this experiment, no other country will try either....
Black Star Ranch | 01.29.09 - 10:21 am | #
But this time it's different . . .
PARIS (Reuters) Hundreds of thousands of teachers, nurses, factory workers and plumbers marched through French cities on Thursday to demand pay rises and protection for jobs.
In the USA they do what ?
Economist Moe Howard 3SU writes:
I seriously think more businesses should pay contract 1099 labor instead hiring employees. Soon more would understand the hidden cost of taxes and benefits they ignore as an employee.
Economist Moe Howard 3SU | 01.29.09 - 10:34 am | #
Just remember to pay self employment tax unlike our new assclown Treasury Secretary.
For unemployment since 1948 see:
L'inexorable ascension de la population sans emploi aux USA - Le blog de Laurent GUERBY
And
Fat Knowledge: The Misleading Nature of the Unemployment Statistic
Rising rising
I love how Russian "leaders" are now investing in news papers. Economy Bust: Oligarchs investing in newspapers
Just what we need media controlled by those guys...
R
km4 writes:
PARIS (Reuters) Hundreds of thousands of teachers, nurses, factory workers and plumbers marched through French cities on Thursday to demand pay rises and protection for jobs.
In the USA they do what ?
km4 | 01.29.09 - 11:32 am | #
Go shopping?
The dismal U.S. unemployment numbers have gotten more airtime recently than Jerry Springer. And why not? The numbers are mind-numbing.
As usual, however, further economic analysis shows that the official numbers dont tell the entire story."