How about using stimulus money to knock down stuff?
âWe have a financial system that is run by private shareholders, managed by private institutions, and we'd like to do our best to preserve that system." Tom Geithner
In response to your query yesterday Re: my colleague's house and having received a "lowball" offer -- yes, in retrospect, the lowball was probably a fair price but definitely not one my colleague was able to afford to sell at.
He and his wife have no need to sell, I think they are just trying to "move up". They can certainly afford the house they're in now -- I think they just wanted more space.
Break out the bulldozers. \t Elvis | \t \t \t \t01.29.09 - 10:29 am | # Elvis | 01.29.09 - 10:29 am | #
Whoops, I guess Elvis said it better
âWe have a financial system that is run by private shareholders, managed by private institutions, and we'd like to do our best to preserve that system." Tom Geithner \t sexy derivative | \t \t \t \t01.29.09 - 10:32 am | #
The United States, it turns out, has declared war on Roquefort cheese.
In its final days, the Bush administration imposed a 300 percent duty on Roquefort, in effect closing off the U.S. market. Americans, it declared, will no longer get to taste the creamy concoction that, in its authentic, most glorious form, comes with an odor of wet sheep and veins of blue mold that go perfectly with rye bread and coarse red wine.
a friend of mine works for California Pacific homes, Division of the Irvine Co. in Orange County. He is upper management, now on 4 day work week and no bonus....they think it is temporary..
//He already indicated he will revise his outlook. Obviously the "Unemployment won't hit 8%" forecast doesn't look too likely here.
bearly | 01.29.09 - 10:36 am | #//
If you listen closely, you can hear the sound of a whirring fan. That's the economy shutting down. Somebody hit CTRL-ALT-DEL in Sept./Oct. and we're in the process of a hard reboot. The screen is going dark, the L.E.D.'s are blinking red and we're heading for a global reset.
When the system comes back up, don't press any keys for awhile or everything will really be messed up.
...LOL.....at last count many census workers spent hours at locked gates trying to update non-returned info. Should be more interesting THIS year with expanded info gathering and higher likability quotient for FedGov employees....
Mercedes Homes filed Ch. 11 two days ago. Haven't looked to see who they expect will provide DIP financing. My guess is liquidation can't be far off given the credit environment for even highly-rated companies.
Didn't CR report this just several days prior? It's not really news, is it? News would be if the record were in the opposite direction. We all know the housing bubble is seriously deflating. The real question is how far and how long will it deflate, and, will it reinflate, and if so, when.
A former Fannie Mae IT contractor has been indicted for planting a virus that would have nuked the mortgage agencys computers, caused millions of dollars in damages and even shut down operations.
fried writes:
Vermont has the lowest foreclosure rate in the country...combo of yankee thrift and state laws...Bloomberg says they even have a housing shortage.
Bloomberg.com refer=home
fried | 01.29.09 - 10:43 am | #
Sounds like an ad. I'll pass it along to the good folks in Mexico City. Their city is sinking at an alarming rate because they have depleted the aquifers beneath it, and they will need to relocate 20 million people. Vermont sounds like a wonderful candidate for that relocation.
By Anthony Faiola
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, January 29, 2009; Page A01
The stimulus bill passed by the House last night contains a controversial provision that would mostly bar foreign steel and iron from the infrastructure projects laid out by the $819 billion economic package.
A Senate version, yet to be acted upon, goes further, requiring, with few exceptions, that all stimulus-funded projects use only American-made equipment and goods.
Proponents of expanding the "Buy American" provisions enacted during the Great Depression, including steel and iron manufacturers and labor unions, argue that it is the only way to ensure that the stimulus creates jobs at home and not overseas.
Opponents, including some of the biggest blue-chip names in American industry, say it amounts to a declaration of war against free trade. That, they say, could spark retaliation from abroad against U.S. companies and exacerbate the global financial crisis.
A former Fannie Mae IT contractor has been indicted for planting a virus that would have nuked the mortgage agencys computers, caused millions of dollars in damages and even shut down operations. Howd this happen? The contractor was terminated, but his server privileges were not.
Rajendrasinh Makwana was indicted on Tuesday in the U.S. District Court for Maryland (press report, complaint and indictment PDFs). From early 2006 to Oct. 24, Makwana was a contractor for Fannie Mae. According to the indictment, Makwana allegedly targeted Fannie Maes network after he was terminated. The goal was to cause damage to Fannie Maes computer network by entering malicious code that was intended to execute on January 31, 2009. Fannie Mae IT contractor indicted for planting malware; Mortgage giant didn't revoke server privileges | Between the Lines
| ZDNet.com
Received an email from a local country club-lite. One where there are golf memberships, social memberships, etc. Not really a prestige place, but the sort of upper middle class hangout for people to take their children and hobknob with people exactly like themselves.
Lots of discounts now, special offers, limited time, delayed dues etc. I had actually wanted to join just for the tennis (courts are hard to find where I live) and for my kids to swim, and learn golf. I think these places must be getting killed too. Any other anecdotal data out there on this topic.
One thing that is different from the previous Depression and now is not just the amount of personal debt but the attitude towards that debt. My Mom, born in 1926 said that they were under stress because they owed $23.00. They eventually paid it off but to them (don't know how that compares to $$'s today) it was a "personal" debt and they were determined to pay it off. Today, not so much.....
Elvis, I appreciate your pain, but exactly what good will bulldozing do? If we get rid of excess inventory, and still are not selling any homes because no one has ability to buy... Tell me again how that helps. We can't force prices to stay up by limiting supply, if no one can pay.
"We don't have foreclosures because we're Puritans."
I think somebody got on my case a while back for suggesting that in early America the speculators often didn't make it through the winter while the Puritans did.
One thing that has become evident is that the big homebuilders did an amazing job of offloading their risk. With so many small to medium builders in bankruptcy, some big builder bankruptcies seem inevitable. But just to have made it this far is pretty remarkable.
Somebody hit CTRL-ALT-DEL in Sept./Oct. and we're in the process of a hard reboot. The screen is going dark, the L.E.D.'s are blinking red and we're heading for a global reset.
If it were a true reboot, my bills would be gone. Unfortunately, my mortgage statement is still arriving every month, on schedule.
Hit alt-ctrl-del again. I'll let you know if it worked.
"Great assist by Democrats! They couldn't have done it with out them.
Economist Moe Howard 3SU"
Foolish response. From 2002 through 2006, they DID do it without them. They did EVERYTHING without them. Since early '07, the makings of this CRASH were already in place. Thanks to Republicans.
Burton Malkiel, a 76-year-old economics professor at Princeton University and author of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street," says he boosted his allocation to highly rated tax-exempt bonds in his taxable account late last year, since yields available on some of these bonds were "unheard of."
Some market watchers believe that it's time to take on more risk in their bond portfolios. Even investment-grade corporate bonds offer high yields, and below-investment-grade junk bonds yield far more than that. Mr. Arnott boosted his allocation to investment-grade corporate bonds in his personal taxable account late last year because the market had reached "irrationally high yields," he says. And Jeremy Siegel, a professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School and senior adviser to exchange-traded-fund management firm WisdomTree Investments, has recently raised his allocation for junk bonds.
"Stocks and high-yield bonds will move together as the crisis passes," rebounding from their depressed levels, the 63-year-old Mr. Siegel says.
"Just wondered how realistic builders were in their pricing, and how that might be affecting sales."
Outsider | 01.29.09 - 10:52 am | #
Outsider,
New builds by small,independant builders are driving the market here.
You can buy a brand new 3/2/2 complete for less than 80k. It is really hard for the foreclosed stuff to compete. I had a broker tell me the only stuff selling is cheap new homes and cheap perfect older homes. If there are any flaws the property just sits...
Great assist by Democrats! They couldn't have done it with out them.
Yep, seems like the one guy screaming about the danger in housing and mortgages was a Republican, albeit an out-of-consensus "fringe lunatic" Republican.
Maybe we need a Fringe Lunatic Republican (FLR) party.
8% was always a dream, I am sticking with 11% U3 and 20% U6...Ca numbers will be 10% in a few months (we are at 9.3% right now) crispy&cole | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 11:01 am | #
Since Dec 2008 was 7.2%, I think you're safe in your stick. Me, I'm thinking it might pass 13% U3 in the next couple of months.
"Foolish response. From 2002 through 2006, they DID do it without them. They did EVERYTHING without them. Since early '07, the makings of this CRASH were already in place. Thanks to Republicans"
Any other anecdotal data out there on this topic.
Slept in a Holiday Inn
I was at a driving range the other day. One of the workers came up to me while I was hitting balls because he thought I might be a pro . We start talking and he says he is a pro who got laid off at a club and the best he could find was the register job at the driving range along with giving a few lessons. He said the golf business is really hurting. That's my anecdote.
Unfortunately the FLR monicor is in use, by a group that likely leans Rebooblikud, unfortunately. Like that Lunatic thing though. I'd join any party with Lunatic in it...but that's just me.
Hey, I know! Let's have a meaningless political argument about which corporately-owned party is responsible for the economy.
âWe have a financial system that is run by private shareholders, managed by private institutions, and we'd like to do our best to preserve that system." Tim Geithner
Outsider said: "...Elvis, I appreciate your pain, but exactly what good will bulldozing do? If we get rid of excess inventory, and still are not selling any homes because no one has ability to buy..."
Maybe we should be a little more careful about broad generalizations like "no one has the ability to buy."
"...Before revisions, there were 4.91 million existing home sales in 2008. This is the lowest level since 1997 (4.37 million)..."
Clearly, 4.91 million people did have the ability to pay. Far below the record pace of a couple of years ago, but still a lot. And all those people are going to do what every new homeowner does after they move in, buy furniture, replace appliances, re-decorate to their own taste, change the landscaping, etc.
We start talking and he says he is a pro who got laid off at a club and the best he could find was the register job at the driving range along with giving a few lessons. He said the golf business is really hurting. That's my anecdote.
s0mebody | 01.29.09 - 11:06 am | #
Club golf pros and tennis pros used to get more ass than a toilet seat. Now, they are lucky if they can find a job cleaning bathrooms! Such is life.
"If we get rid of excess inventory, and still are not selling any homes because no one has ability to buy... Tell me again how that helps. We can't force prices to stay up by limiting supply, if no one can pay.
Outsider"
Very generally, the goal is to find the price bottom the quickiest. The quickier supply and demand reach/near equilibrium the faster this will happen. When demand is falling and an enormous oversupply exists, prices will fall for many, many years (which also brings down the paper that floods the system for many, many years). Importantly, there is no confidence in the market to invest in the homes or paper, because there is no end in sight for falling prices. In order to increase the speed to reach equilibrium and restore confidence in the market, you can reduce supply by bulldozing while salavaging useful material (and you still have the land). Oh course, this isn't an ideal solution, but, these are not ideal times. And it gets at the root of the matter. Same thing would need to occur with commerical albeit at a leesser scale.
"...Before revisions, there were 4.91 million existing home sales in 2008. This is the lowest level since 1997 (4.37 million)..."
Clearly, 4.91 million people did have the ability to pay. Far below the record pace of a couple of years ago, but still a lot. And all those people are going to do what every new homeowner does after they move in, buy furniture, replace appliances, re-decorate to their own taste, change the landscaping, etc.
Sebastian | 01.29.09 - 11:09 am | #
And 30% of those were Repos and subsequent sales to stronger hands representing 2 losers and one eventual possessor.
crispy&cole writes:
Yes, parts of CA are near 15%...see Fresno, Ca...that is a depression
Speaking of Fresno, CA... For as long as I can remember, everything I've ever sent to the IRS has gone to a service center in either Kansas City or Cincinnati. This year the return label for my 1040 sends it to Fresno. Has the IRS been consolidating/laying off people?
"The bank debt market has changed dramatically over the past twelve months," said Jason Reese, CEO of Imperial Capital Group, LLC. "We are adding additional expertise to better serve our institutional clients in this dynamic market."
Great time to buy lots of shares in beat up little techs:
Lots of discounts now, special offers, limited time, delayed dues etc. I had actually wanted to join just for the tennis (courts are hard to find where I live) and for my kids to swim, and learn golf. I think these places must be getting killed too. Any other anecdotal data out there on this topic.
Local upper-middle-class country club is also getting killed. They shut down their kitchen, fired their cook of 35 years that everyone loved, and are looking for other ways to cut back.
"And all those people are going to do what every new homeowner does after they move in, buy furniture, replace appliances, re-decorate to their own taste, change the landscaping, etc.
Sebastian"
Half of those were foreclosures bought to rent out. Highly unlikely they will be furnished rentals.
One of my best friend's little brother is the club pro at a posh club in Dallas. He plays golf with a bunch of guys from the Dallas Stars, Mavericks, Cowboys all the time. Must be rough.
....I wonder how much things might improve if the chronic complainers & whiners ("who caused this - who's to blame for my discomfort") instead learned how to garden, volunteer with the elderly, or learned what it takes to BUILD something. It might be an eye-opening event for them. I sure would appreciate the result.
Right, Black Star. Build fence, string wire. Develop a field or two. Build a barn and loft. Dig a well. Plant some perimeter trees.
Farm and Ranch. Small scale and sustainable until the decade(s) of hard times pass and the economy could flourish again. Hard, simple, prosperous life.
Maybe we should be a little more careful about broad generalizations like "no one has the ability to buy."
The reason I say that Seb is not because no one has the ability to buy right now, but because I see job losses accelerating at an alarming rate, and the logical outcome of a service economy in a global depression. If they have the ability to buy today, they may well not have it tomorrow, and even if they do, they're going to be too scared to do anything.
Overall inventory (# units) is at a 5-6 year low? # months reflects a temporary lull in sales - likely due to job loss fears and the election uncertainty. Interest rates should impact these.
Don't forget census inventory DOES include empty tract lots - some of which are in receivership.
When they actually count sticks in the air, places like northern CA are 2-3 months of inventory.
The suggestion to pay people to tear things down has some merit. If their is one thing we are good at in the US, it is blowing things up. And with the expertise in video games of the US proletariat, we could wire them all up, and they could have orgasms pushing buttons and seeing the explosions.
We could then hire a major military contractor to rebuild the whole thing.
crispy&cole said: "Not true...you said they were declining...I monitor everything you and DC1000 say, sorry you said that..."
Respectfully, you are mistaken. If you look it up (you won't, and even if you do, Mr. Rove, you won't post it), what I said was that I thought the monthly net job-loss had peaked.
Just amazing, how some people will lie when the truth would serve them just as well.
I've watched you Rob Dawg, and you are just another example of a buried tick sucking off our corrupt financial system who pretends to be Above It All and so wise and sage-like ... or should we say "bipartisan."
While you wait for another chance to degrade our nation for your personal advantage.
The Right-wing Conservative Republican traitors let these "dawgs" out, but they just piddled on the rug and now are hiding under the couch.
A blast from the past: winjr asked: "Ok, Sebastian, what's your answer? You've specifically stated here that CR's prediction of 100K's of residential construction employment losses was flat out wrong. So far, the data supports your position. What's your rationale?"
The magnitude of residential construction job-losses CR was forecasting occurs during recessions. We aren't in one or headed for one any time soon.
Sebastian \t Sebastian | \t \t \t \t06.19.07 - 12:50 pm | #
Black Star Ranch writes:
....I wonder how much things might improve if the chronic complainers & whiners ("who caused this - who's to blame for my discomfort") instead learned how to garden,
BSR - Just for curiosity, how long did it take you to make the transition to the ranch and get it going w/your garden, etc.? Because I think people may have run out of time to transition to a self-sustaining lifestyle. Unless I'm just a slowpoke.
quote:
Opponents, including some of the biggest blue-chip names in American industry, say it amounts to a declaration of war against free trade.
WHAT "blue-chip names"? The bankers posing as industrialists?
Crank up the steel mills!
Force march the money-handlers to the real jobs!
Thank you anonymous.
The suggestion to pay people to tear things down has some merit. Subcommander Doom | 01.29.09 - 11:21 am | #
No, better to let homes go as far down as possible, thereby making them available to a broader range of people at a lower overall share of income. Let rents hit bottom, too.
The less money spent on shelter the more that'll be available for paying down debt, saving & spending.
Problem with stupid people is they are too stupid to know it. \t Fuck All Conservative Republic | \t \t \tHomepage | \t01.29.09 - 11:12 am | The Irony is thick
crispy&cole: "Nice spin...so job losses have peaked, does not mean job losses have peaked???"
It's not spin, it's what I said in the first place, Mr. Rove. The fact that you either don't remember it accurately or never understood what I was saying in the first place reflects poorly on you, not me.
Elvis: When demand is falling and an enormous oversupply exists, prices will fall for many, many years (which also brings down the paper that floods the system for many, many years).
I'm with you so far.
Importantly, there is no confidence in the market to invest in the homes or paper, because there is no end in sight for falling prices.
Yup.
In order to increase the speed to reach equilibrium and restore confidence in the market, you can reduce supply by bulldozing while salavaging useful material (and you still have the land).
Artificial cure. I don't believe that will work. The problem has zoomed down past housing, into the subterra somewhere. Worst case scenario, I see all oversupply bulldozed, and families living in tent cities, still not buying. Maybe I'm a pessimist.
I believe we should "out" those who put us in this fix.
While there's plenty of blame & stupidity to go around, there were those who abused their positions of power. I believe in taking responsibility for your actions. Is that not the basis for rule of law & justice? If we blame no one, those responsible, get away with it.
Stick a stake in their black hearts so they'll never rise again.
Orders for U.S. durable goods fell in December for a fifth month, the longest slide since at least 1992, reflecting a collapse in business investment that's likely to prolong the recession.
The 2.6 percent drop was worse than economists had forecast, a Commerce Department report showed today in Washington. Excluding automobiles and aircraft, orders decreased 3.6 percent, also more than anticipated. The Labor Department said separately that the number of Americans collecting jobless benefits soared to a record 4.776 million. Today's reports reflect efforts by companies from General Motors Corp. to Caterpillar Inc. to downsize amid a pullback in both domestic spending and demand from overseas. The Federal Reserve yesterday warned that a prolonged global downturn may push the U.S. to the brink of deflation. âThere is lots of pain," Ward McCarthy, a principal at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates in Skillman, New Jersey, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview. The economy was âdeteriorating over the course of the fourth quarter and that deterioration has continued into the first quarter," he said, anticipating that the unemployment rate may exceed 9 percent for the first time since 1983.
I played at The Honors Club (formerly Columbia Oaks) north of Dallas over Christmas break. Memberships are around $40,000 plus monthly dues around $1000. The course is nothing special, it's just been there for about 60+ years (guessing age). The club house was closed. It had been completely gutted, furniture, lights, everything. The "pro shop" was being run out of a trailer next to the practice green. It looked like they would be declaring bankruptcy shortly.
"No, better to let homes go as far down as possible, thereby making them available to a broader range of people at a lower overall share of income."
This doesn't prevent the price of homes from falling more. The price of homes will go back to historical levels, because of a return to rational lending based on income and downpayments. Too much of anything is a bad thing (except a bunch of things).
---05-07-08 Brian Wesbury on CNBC says "I predict Dow 15,000 by the end of the year" (2008) Dow at 13,000 when he said it. He also reitterated his "no recession" call.
---05-07-08 Frequent CR poster Sebastian said (In response to the above Wesbury comment): "I don't know what model(s) he uses, but the fact of the matter is that DJIA at 15,000 by the end of the year isn't really out of line.
08/27/08 S&P 500 at 1281 Sebastian writes:
Just looking at the chart, the closest "match" to the current numbers looks like about mid-1982...a huge rebound out of a major generational low, also coinciding with the beginning of a major new secular bull market in stocks.
Black Star Ranch(Excellent) writes: .....a lot of this reminds me of "serious" conversations with most 16-year old boys. What a hopeless venture.
How about "Sorry doesn't cut it."
They wrecked American society. The ones that still identify with them are traitors through and through. They are more loyal to the party than the Republic, and most of them American Taliban to boot.
Deal. Stand with them and be one of them. Stand aside and be an American.
Lots of discounts now, special offers, limited time, delayed dues etc. I had actually wanted to join just for the tennis (courts are hard to find where I live) and for my kids to swim, and learn golf. I think these places must be getting killed too. Any other anecdotal data out there on this topic. Slept in a Holiday Inn | 01.29.09 - 10:51 am | #
Don't know about golf, but the local paper just posted a list of all the "great bargains" at local restaurants -- coupons, offers, etc. There were more than a few places, places I've been to, that offered half off on the second entree, any time, no coupon, no time limit.
This is a tourist town, and it's winter; but I've never seen the like.
"Cobra - Do you feel they are in the black at that pricing? Includes land?"
Outsider | 01.29.09 - 11:10 am | #
Outsider,
The two guys I talked with both said they are making a profit. Small,but a profit. I am going to guess with where supply prices locally are they are around 5-7K per house. It is keeping them in business. The 2 guys sold almost all their lots at the top and are now stepping back in.
Think 30K+ peak(or more) and 3K now.
They will only break ground with 20+ percent down. One guy wanted 40%.
It'll be interesting to see who is still standing in 6 months...
Chris
BTW...100K gets you 1800/sqft,lani,screened enclosure and a pool,all on their lot...
"I believe in retribution & justice.
Paradigm Lost"
Massive lawlessness and chaos IS coming. I'll take Black Star Ranch's advice and volunteer to help people know at whom they should be directing their vengeance.
BSR: "...complainers & whiners..." Get thee to Gramm country. Oops! You're already there. BTW, I do all those things suggested, but I still crave justice.
BTW, the IRS is ramping up hiring in a number of cities. There had been a hiring freeze under BushCo. Just google it.
Paradigm Lost | 01.29.09 - 11:33 am |
There was a hiring freeze at the SEC up until a month ago. Maybe that will change soon. The great luminaries at CNBC were calling to abolish the SEC because of the Madoff scandal......hello??
---"This is not what a recession looks like....no way!" Mike Green and Jim Benham show 11/16/07
----Mike Green: "Wallstreet thinks things are bad, but in reality things are very good. 12/18/07 (At the time: DOW at 13,323, Nas at 2596, S&P 1454
----"I have a real problem with people not using facts in basing their opinions." Pat Powell, Powell investments (Reference Peter Schiff's opinion that we are in a recession right now 11/22/07) Q208 revisions prove he is right when Q407 comes in at -.02
----"all the bad news is priced into financials" Mike Green and Jim Benham show 12/14/07
----Fred Layne on Bloomerg (layne and Barry) "This is a great time to be a buyer of equities 12/19/07.
----Donald Luskin calls the bottom for financials on 12/07/07 (VFH financial index at $56.22 at time of call)
-=--Economist Monti says there will probably not be a recession in 2008, Bloomberg 12/17/07
----Mike Green: "This is the cheapest stocks have been in my lifetime" 12/17/07
----Michael Darda from MKM partners: "There is no evidence for that (recession)" "I think those who think a recession is coming are wrong, dead wrong". 12/20/07
----Bruce Kassim "We think growth will rebound rather smartly in the second half of 08" 12/20/07
----Larry Kudlow "It does not look like a recession to me!" 12/20/07
----Brian Wesbury on Larry Kudlow show, "Brian Wesbury is not seeing recession, so add me to that list" 12/20/07 (Estimated 3.0 real growth next year, while Roubini estimated -1.5% 2008)
----Buzz Zaino, Royce & Associates: "I think the spring will see a rise in homebuying, why wait until 2009, the early buyers will get the best deal." "I think we've seen the bottom (housing stocks)" 12/26/07
----Richard DeKaser National City Chief Economist: "I think the first half of 08 will have GDP at less than 1% with a rebound to 3% in the second half of 08".
----Joe Brusuelus "I see an average growth of 2.1% for 2008. I think we will skirt a recession." 01/02/08
----Brian Wesbury calls for Dow 15,000 by end of 2008!!!. Reaffirms a no recession call. 01/02/08
----Paul Kandel "I think we skirt by both a recession and stagflation and just see slow growth for 2008." 01/02/08
----Mike Green "These tech stocks are the cheapest I've ever seen them" 01/02/08
----01/06/08 Abby Joseph Coen calls for a 14% return on the S&P for 2008 to 1650 due to avoiding recession. (Cohen loses job calling S&P on 3/17/08, replacement calls for drop to 1160 and rebound to 1300 by year's end)
----01/06/08 Colin Glingsman of Oppenheimer Capital..."This month (Jan) is the bottom for financials, we will have a slight recession, the stock market will be up on anticipation for 2009, the bottom for housing stocks is upon us"
----01/06/08 Jeffy Kleintop (LPL Investments) "This is a great time for stocks since they are pricing in a recession that won't happen."
Vermont has the lowest foreclosure rate in the country...combo of yankee thrift and state laws...Bloomberg says they even have a housing shortage.
Not too much room for too many locusts, however.
Locusts all thinking, "where can I go to find the crunchy granola existence I've always dreamed of, without any black or brown folks around?!? I know - Vermont! No one's thought of that yet!"
----01/06/08 Brian Wesbury "I don't think we are headed for a recession"
----01/08/08 NEW YORK, Jan 8 (Reuters) - BlackRock Inc global equities chief investment officer Bob Doll on Tuesday forecast U.S. stocks will reach record highs again in 2008 as the U.S narrowly escapes a recession.
(BlackRock's Doll sees record year for stocks in 2008
| Reuters
---01/28/08 Lincold Anderson (LTL Financial) on Bloomberg: "We see this as a buying opportunity (for stocks), we don't see a recession ahead" (S&P at 1353 at the time).
---01/30/08 David Boss on Bloomberg after the planned 50bps cut by Bernanke: "We think equities are going to be up 12 months from now."(S&P at 1355 at the time)
---02/04/08 Fritz Meyer on Bloomberg commenting on the highest insider buying in January since 1996 "I think the insiders know when to buy. I would guess that at the end of '08, the market would be substantially higher than it is now. (said S&P at 1600 by year's end was "entirely reasonable"(S&P at 1380 at the time))
---02/06/08 Jim Cramer, "I'm predicting a housing shortage and a bank stock shortage...There's gonna be a housing shortage a year from now!".
---02/08/08 Joe Keeting of First American Asset Mngmt, On Bloomberg, very bullish on stocks "I think we can do 10-15% this year. I think you will see low double digit gains" He also said "Bank of American is a good place to be right now. (BAC at $43.07 at the time of the call, $21.00 by 10/23/08)"
---02/11/08 Barton Biggs on Bloomberg "I think valuations are quite attractive, unless you think we are going into some kind of credit abyss...and I think that's unlikely".
---02/21/08 Neil Hennessy, (chronic bull, who was saying buy stocks all second half of 07), "We happen to be in good economic times but people just don't believe it.." Bloomberg TV interview/ Dow at 12,279.
---03/11/08 David Sewerby on Bloomberg, "there are some attractive valuations out there and the fed is easing. I think we are at the bottom for stocks." (Dow was up 400 to 12,140 on that day)
---03/14/08 Barton Biggs on Bloomberg, (after the Bear Stearns blow-up), "The markets are trying to make a bottom here. (DOW at 11,951) We think we could see a 1000 point rally soon. Sometime you have to make a stand. This is just panic and you have to buy when it's the at the worst. We are in (the market) right now.
---03/14/08 Jerry Jordon on Bloomberg, (Dow at 11,951), I think you load up on (stocks) Monday, and on Tuesday....This may sound crazy, but I think we hit all time highs (for stocks) this year(2008)!
---03/17/08 Jim Paulsen on Bloomberg, "The S&P is still expected to earn double digit profits, I think it's already priced in." S&P at 1276.
---03/20/08 Punk, Ziegel & Co.'s Richard Bove says "now is the time to invest in banks, any more bad news will be meaningless. The financial crisis is over and investors should take advantage of the "once-in-a-generation opportunity" to buy banking stocks"
---03/20/08 Brian Wesbury on CNBC "We are not going to have a recession. A recession is highly unlikely. We see 2.0% this quarter. We don't see anything close to a recession."
---03/22/08 Moe Ansari calls the bottom of the market on his radio show. Dow at 12,361, S&P at 1329.51 Nas at 2258.
---05-07-08 Brian Wesbury on CNBC says "I predict Dow 15,000 by the end of the year" (2008) Dow at 13,000 when he said it. He also reitterated his "no recession" call.
---05-07-08 Frequent CR poster Sebastian said (In response to the above Wesbury comment): "I don't know what model(s) he uses, but the fact of the matter is that DJIA at 15,000 by the end of the year isn't really out of line.
Sebastian
Sebastian | 05.07.08 - 12:39 pm | #
---05/08/08 Barton Biggs on bloomberg encouraging going long saying "The economy is just not that bad off...we are talking to companies and aren't hearing the gloom and doom that others think is out there."
---05/11/08 After Meredith Whitney sasy Citi is the most overvalued financial stock at $23, Charles Peabody on bloomberg sees Citi in the mid 30's by mid 2009, thinks many are too pessimistic on economy.
---05/11/08 On bloomberg Charles Lemonidas says MBIA is a good buy at $10 and sees a near future stock price from $25-$40. He also liked Boeing(BA) at $85, Lemonidas also recommended Freddie and Fannie the Friday before they essentially went to zero.
---06/30/08 Ron Rimcus of BB&T Financial recommends KBH at 17$ a share on Bloomberg. He says there is $17 on KBH's books so you are getting it for free. He sees healthy returns a "few years out".
---07/01/08 Phil Orlando on Bloomberg says the second half of the year will show positive growth and the current weakness in the market will be a good buying opportunity.
---07/03/08 US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said here on Thursday that the US economy would most likely be stronger at the end of 2008, even as oil prices surged to new records above 146 dollars."I think there is a very strong possibility that we will be growing at the end of the year. We will have stronger growth at the end of the year than we have right now," he said during a press conference after talks with his British counterpart Alistair Darling. "http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=080703120512.75gtwijc&show_article=1
---07/07/08 UBS among others came out with 1650 year-end call on the S&P500. At the time of the call the S&P was at 1245. They were calling for an 18% rally in the index in 6 months.
"the IRS is ramping up hiring in a number of cities."
.....so they can "take care of all those over-zealous right-wingers" who we know caused all this AND probably had something to do with the killing of Jesus - a few grueling federal audits should convince them of the error of their ways!
Yes, I think bulldozing is an artificial cure, because it is not a natural market force. However, it would help with the economic problem. The societal problem of homelessness is beyond the scope of this solution.
---07/29/08 Win Smith of WHS Holdings on Bloomberg says the financials are making a bottom (VFH at 39.12) and said he is starting to buy Merryl (MER 24$) after they raised 8 billion for cash they previously said they didn't need.
---08/05/08 Thomas Lee, Equity Strategist, says stocks will be higher by year's end and the S&P500 will be at about 1450 by the end of 2008. (S&P at 1289 at the time).
---08/11/08 James Chessen, American Bankers Assoc, on Bloomberg laughed at the prospect that the FDIC is facing a crisis. He pointed out that we are "no where near" the crisis on the 1990's and that the FDIC is adequately funded to handle the coming bank failures.
---08/27/08 S&P 500 at 1281 Sebastian writes:
Just looking at the chart, the closest "match" to the current numbers looks like about mid-1982...a huge rebound out of a major generational low, also coinciding with the beginning of a major new secular bull market in stocks.
Black Star Ranch said: ".....a lot of this reminds me of "serious" conversations with most 16-year old boys. What a hopeless venture."
That, I agree with. Sometime in the past few months the quality of discussion here also did some cliff-diving. I never minded heated debate over the facts, and in fact it was even fun at times.
But the charm of recent "discussions" is pretty thin. I wonder if this is what it was like for CR 3 years ago when everything looked great but he was calling for bad times to come?
Average Joe writes:
CR, how bout a little admission that you never thought we'd get this low.
The most pessimistic have continually best most right.
Average Joe | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 10:31 am | #
I'll admit that it has gotten worse than I feared a year ago or so. I thought we would bottom out at theat just below 400 level that all the previous declines stopped at...hot knife meet butter.
They wrecked American society. The ones that still identify with them are traitors through and through. They are more loyal to the party than the Republic, and most of them American Taliban to boot.
Deal. Stand with them and be one of them. Stand aside and be an American.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins"
You said it, Comrade BR!! That was so good it needed to be run again.
"But the charm of recent "discussions" is pretty thin"
What about you? You have been wrong at least 50 times...come one man, look in the mirror first, then you can think about being critical of those of us who have been right for a long time, you have not earned anything but a badge for being Dead Wrong!
--
Thanks, Average Joe, for making my point about rogue economists and rogue strategists. ROGUE ECONOMISTS HAVE BEEN, AND WOULD CONTINUE TO BE, THE CULPRITS. Please donr listen to economists about forecasting the future of the US economy and housing.
But the charm of recent "discussions" is pretty thin. Sebastian | 01.29.09 - 11:38 am | #
More threads than usual have tended to go off the reservation, mostly when someone goes all partisan. Still, it passes and debate moves on to more useful territory.
Roubini is onboard the depression train now too...choo choo
Roubini reiterated his prediction that U.S. financial losses will more than triple to $3.6 trillion and said that most banks there are insolvent and should be nationalized. The International Monetary Fund said yesterday that the global economy will slow close to a halt this year, dragged down by more than $2 trillion of bad assets in the U.S.
The international bank regulatory framework must be completely overhauled if we are to avoid a near depression, Roubini said
Sebastian, I think people are just getting scared. Maybe they don't know HOW to prepare for the inevitable. You'd think that would be advisable NOW (as it was also many years ago).
I keep telling her to walk, but she won't hear of it.
Outsider
Tell her she is being old fashioned and unreasonable. If this does not work assemble a word doc. w/ prominate IBs comp and bonuses over the last four years and see if this works as a reality check.
BSR, I would guess some of it is the simple fact, there just isn't much left to discuss. The train has left the station, now we just sit back and watch the wreck.
Actually, no one said late stage capitalism would be fun, and the people involved are just doing what their class background and education has trained then to do, extract excess wealth out of the system that are embedded in.
The problem is systemic, and superstition based- one cannot grow indefinitely in a finite system.
Capitalism, which has been extremely resilient, especially with the evolutionary survival traits that have helped human fitness (short term gains over long range thinking, heuristic though over critical thought, etc.), but now we are bumping against resource restraints that are bringing on the system instability we are now experiencing.
It should be a wild ride to the bottom, and a very interesting transition.
crispy, this is the quote you probably remember. I'll give it to seb...for now (next month seb will have some 'splainin to do).
Sebastian writes:
yagij said: "...Inquiring minds want to know."
Well, truly inquiring minds would look it up for themselves.
In the past several recessions there's been a point where net job-loss has accelerated month over month to an extreme, then backed-off, similar to a climax "crash" in the stock market after a long downtrend. With monthly non-farm payrolls that pattern occurs at or near the end of a recession.
It happened at the end of 2008, with monthly net job-loss accelerating four months in a row to a one-month extreme of -584,000 in November, but then it backed-off to -524,000 in December.
The cumulative job-loss will continue, but the point of maximum weakness is past. That's what the drop in the interest rate risk spreads is telling us. It's also showing up in (as I mentioned) real income less transfers, which is no longer falling.
WHAT "blue-chip names"? The bankers posing as industrialists?
Crank up the steel mills!
Force march the money-handlers to the real jobs!
Thank you anonymous.
Newbie 101
CAT 50% of business comes from overseas, CEO said if this goes through, they'll lose all overseas revenue
The U.S. economy has weakened substantially in the past several weeks, and the National Bureau of Economic Research will eventually get around to declaring an official recession. Conventional wisdom believes that the current recession will be longer and deeper than any recession the U.S. has experienced since the early 1980s, continuing through 2009 and perhaps into 2010.
When the NBER picks the start date of this recession, we suspect that they will reach back to the fourth quarter of 2007, when real gross domestic product fell by a slight 0.2%. We do not agree that the U.S. was in recession then, or for that matter up through August 2008. Despite a horrible housing market, real GDP expanded at a 2.8% annual rate in Q2, while real GDP was basically flat in the third quarter.
Nonetheless, when the government releases its advance estimate of Q3 real GDP growth on Oct. 30, the report will probably show a slightly negative number, something in the -0.1% to -0.5% range. This will be based on some more-pessimistic-than-necessary estimates of data that are not yet available. When the final data comes in and GDP is revised, we expect that negative figure to move into slightly positive territory.
But in September, the economy fell off a cliff, with real GDP likely contracting at a 3% annual rate in the fourth quarter, making it the worst quarter since 1982.
Rather than being the first of several negative quarters of economic growth, we expect this will be a temporary capitulation to the credit crunch, with almost all of the economic losses postponing economic activity into what will turn out to be a healthy period of growth in the second half of 2009. To be precise, we expect real GDP to be flat in Q1-2009 but then grow at an average annual rate of 3% in the final three quarters of next year.
The reason: This sharp drop in growth is due to a temporary drop in velocity, due to a true credit crunch, with some panic thrown in for good measure. It is not a typical recession caused by fundamental, economy-changing events such as higher tax rates, tighter money, protectionism or other public policies that stifle innovation or entrepreneurship.
The failure of Lehman Brothers (nyse: LEH - news - people ), money market fund losses, widening credit spreads and a sudden tightening in bank credit--even an unwillingness of banks to lend to one other--hit hard in September. As a result, the velocity of money--the speed with which money moves through the economy--fell rapidly. The monetary equation MV=PQ helps explain what is happening. Normally, monetary velocity (V) is stable, so once money (M) is known, we can forecast nominal GDP (PQ or real growth plus inflation).
If there is a slowdown in the turnover of money--say a 5% decline--the impact on nominal GDP growth is no different than if the money supply itself shrinks by 5%.
But there is good news. After ham-handing the rescue operation for months, the cavalry has finally arrived. The Fed has injected massive amounts of liquidity, driving the federal funds rate to roughly 1%--where it traded last week.
Moreover, the Treasury Department has drawn a line in the sand. It has decided that no more banks will fail due to a lack of liquidity. We still wish the SEC would have suspended mark-to-market accounting, but instead the Treasury injected capital (by buying preferred shares) in order to stabilize the system and bring back investor confidence. This will work, but it is clearly a sub-optimal policy, involving the federal government more deeply in the private sector than is comfortable for a democracy.
Despite the downside for free markets, these actions by the Fed and Treasury will help unlock the credit markets and turn velocity upward. With velocity and the money supply both heading up, a "V" shaped recovery is likely.
While the conventional wisdom is betting on an "L" shaped economy, and the equity market is pricing in the risk of a prolonged slump in earnings, we think the odds favor a "V" shaped recovery, with only a temporary hit to earnings and a Dow Jones industrials average that recovers to 11,000 by the end of this year, with another 20% climb in 2009 all the way up to 13,250. The economy has succumbed to a panicky credit crisis, not a typical policy-induced recession. As a result, the downturn is unlikely to last long.
Brian S. Wesbury is chief economist, and Robert Stein senior economist, at First Trust Advisors in Lisle, Ill.
(Remember these folks? Sold off all possessions to live footloose and fancy free on the great American road? written up in NY Times?)
Last night as we where cresting the Shenandoah Mountain Range where the snow was falling heavily and my voice had disappeared hours ago beneath a deep and alarmingly wet rasp, we heard a slightly disturbing crash from the back of the RV. Being inky black night there was no way to see what it was so I told myself it was the trash can falling as an image of the refrigerator door flying open crossed my mind. Alas, starving and freezing we had to give up on our slow (20 mph) descent and that is when we saw it.
The fridge door had not swung open.
It had fallen off completely... and was lying, condiment side down, in the rear hallway... mayonnaise and salsa covering the floor in a pattern that told us the exact skidding dance of the door across the floor. I have heard that a door is not a door when it is ajar, but is it still a door when it is lying on the floor?
You see, I was almost immediately distracted by the discovery that our furnace would not light and there would be no more driving for the night. It was set to be a cold, sub-freezing, see your breath night and we had little to do but begin making dinner, pull all the blankets and settle under the covers before the temperatures began their now painful descent.
This would be kinda cute if it weren't for them apparently having two little kids with them.
Do we really know who is at the heart of this onion? We can peel layer after layer, but who is the real culprit(s)? \t Outsider | \t \t \t \t01.29.09 - 11:34 am |
I don't think there's any doubt but that historians will align Bush with this depression to at least the extent Hoover is aligned with the last depression.
You can't increase the national debt by $5 trillion, while accomplishing absolutely nothing, and fail to regulate any aspect of predatory financial activity and not be responsible for the result.
The fact that Bush also had nothing but contempt for the Constitution, the Geneva Conventions, our allies around the world and the American people just provides a little non-financial color to the diaster that his 8 years in office wreaked upon this country.
Republicans supported Bush at every turn. Now, through their master Rush Limbaugh, they hope to rewrite history. Won't work. The whole world saw what happened.
Anonymous(Unrated) writes: You said it, Comrade BR!! That was so good it needed to be run again.
I didn't take the rhetoric there, that was the job of the pioneers who explained that if you spoke out for the rights of the accused you were a criminal liberal scum.
Then it was made established practice by the people who said if you disagreed with the war on terror or their vision of America as a Christian nation, you were a liberal elite enemy within of western culture.
And if the Republicans regain power, we will be right back into the thick of the liberal elite terror-lover accusations.
Might as well just keep the dial up to "hot" so everyone can enjoy the pain. Aren't the dynamics of divide and rule identity politics fun?
"BTW, my sister is underwater in a Northport condo. She's leaving the area. I keep telling her to walk, but she won't hear of it."
Outsider | 01.29.09 - 11:40 am | #
Outsider,
Tell her to walk. There is so much empty already it will not make a bit of difference. Condos,if not right now,within a year will be cash only in areas of Florida. The oversupply is that great. Northport is one.
I just signed a lease on a 2/2/1 duplex at 500/month. One street south of Northport. That is where the market is...
Also,the guy I rent from has all 34+ of his duplexes rented at 500/month.
He figures rents are going to drop another 100/mo in the next couple of years. Ouch. Those are the rents from........1990,when he first built them.
That's what the drop in the interest rate risk spreads is telling us. It's also showing up in (as I mentioned) real income less transfers, which is no longer falling.
Sebastian
Anyone, inc. the FED, who points to drops in yield spreads to show improvement is a fool. FED is the first and last lender. FED stops buying, spreads exceed last Oct/Nov
scone,
Thanks for that PDX RE link. Very informative. I am in SW metro area...this data confirms what I see on my drives to work and about town. Massive, massive inventory. PDX never had the monster developments, but I think that flipping has been huge here.
Then there's the South Waterfront condo fiasco...massive numbers of empty units.
Eastman Kodak Co. said Thursday it is cutting 3,500 to 4,500 jobs, or 14 percent to 18 percent of its work force, as it posted a fourth-quarter loss of $137 million on plunging sales of both digital and film-based photography products.
On the one hand, a round of golf shouldn't cost more than 50 bucks, really ... but we can't have all these courses going under ... and what about all the recently laid off ... they'll have plenty of spare time ... and if green fees drop enough they'll be playing golf instead of looking for jobs like they told the wife ... which means I won't be able to get a t-time ...
OMFG! THE DEPRESSION'S GOING TO AFFECT ME!!!!!!!!!
"---05-07-08 Frequent CR poster Sebastian said (In response to the above Wesbury comment): "I don't know what model(s) he uses, but the fact of the matter is that DJIA at 15,000 by the end of the year isn't really out of line."
Yes, of course my comment looks ridiculous in hindsight.
But now look at the stock market and the economic conditions at the time I made the comment.
The stock market had been rising for several weeks, after a relatively minor, run-of-the-mill correction.
The ISM manufacturing index was 49.6, indicating fractionally negative manufacturing growth but with overall economic expansion.
Year-over-year real GDP was at 2%, low but still within a range typical of economic expansion. The unemployment rate was only 5.5%.
Based on what was known at the time, my comments weren't ridiculous at the time but were based on facts that didn't need to be rationalized or spun to be valid.
My question: Whose bearish comments today are going to look foolish 6 months, a year, or two years down the road?
Blackhalo(Excellent) writes: That is not a trait exclusive to either party. It may be more pronounced in (R) though.
I think the Republicans really honed the whole confutation of the party and the state thing.
It's kinda sad because so many of them are staunch patriots who aren't aware their concept of nation has been ruthlessly hijacked by people who are much too textbook in their approach to really believe the Big Lie themselves.
The worker mobility issue is offset by the increased incentive to walk away from an underwater mortgage.
See, Bernanke is right. We do have a balanced eCONomy.
Angry Saver.
IMO: people are walking away, but hanging around, but no new jobs to go to. I suspect people are walking away and renting, or even squatting, in another foreclosure down the street. They can't afford a moving truck. Squatting is the new homeownership.
No doubt Bush will go down as one of the worst presidents in history; those in Congress during his terms ought to be thrown in there, too.
That said, the foundation for everything that happened in the 2000's was laid in prior decades. The Greenspan PUT, the virtual abandonment of bank reserve requirements, the repeal of Glass-Stegal, etc. (and there are many, many others) all happened in the prior decade with both parties fingerprints all over it.
Personally, I see this as the culmination of bad policy moves over the entire past century.
I am not of either party. Now what crap do you have to state?
Economist Moe Howard 3SU | 01.29.09 - 11:03 am | #
BULLSHIT. Every single post you put up is an apologia for Republicans or an attack on Democrats.
You are not worthy of your stooge handle, you pointy-headed cretin. And you were the same way under your last crappy (but more accurate) handle, Mr. after the twelvepack.
if you investigate the backgrounds of many of the pundit's that average joe listed, you'll find they are the mouthpiece's of various special interest, lobbyists and congresspeople.
Peter Schiff's Clients Got Hosed This Year, Too
Posted Jan 26, 2009 11:43am EST by Joe Weisenthal
Peter Schiff is a Printing Money inflation dope (PMID), i.e., Feds Printing Money would cause high inflation and then lead to hyperinflation, and a guru to many PMIDs. Other gurus of these dopes include Dr Doomed Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, etc. These inflationists have been big bears, for years, on US Treasuries and the dollar and have been commodities bulls calling for hyperinflation and invoking Zimbabwe when talking about the inflation outlook for the US. The latter qualifies one as a moron with no understanding of how the US financial system, especially, the monetary policy, works and what would the world economy look like if the US were to inflate even at 20% annual rate, let alone like Zimbabwe. When you hear two words in the US context hyperinflation and Zimbabwe run. You are listening to a moron, or a charlatan. The US econo-political system would cease to exist long before very high inflation rate, let alone hyperinflation, or Zimbabwe like situation, takes place. People like Marc Faber and Peter Schiff feed into the ignorance and prejudices of PMIDs, the favorite technique of propagandists of all stripe. Printing Money is a myth sustained by propaganda of people like Faber, Rogers and Schiff.
The thing about PMIDs is that they dont admit that they were wrong about the commodities and the myth of China & India driving the demand even as the demand slacks in the US and the developed world. These dopes were most vocal and incredulous at the worst time, in July of 2008. The plain fact is that they dont know diddley about inflation and the US Treasury market because they believe in the myth of Printing Money. There is no printing of money going on, you dopes, only swap of one debt with another. If the central govt debt caused inflation Japan wouldnt have had the deflation problem in recent years. Dopes ignore evidence that doesnt suite their beliefs and find excuses like, the US is not Japan. It is true that the US is not Japan just as I am not Obama (thank God!), but the dopes miss the point that there was a lesson for the US in what went on in Japan. The US ruling elite and the policymakers are far worse and far more crooked and evil than their Japanese counterparts. American dopes can only dream of having as caring a ruling elite as the Japanese for reasons not hard to understand. Diversity is deadly, you dopes! What connection exist between Bankrupters and Fraudsters of New York City (BFNYC) and an average American in Idaho, or Mississippi?!
It is the debt, Stupid! (Implosion of private debt, especially, the household debt, is highly deflationary).
Yes, of course my comment looks ridiculous in hindsight.
But now look at the stock market and the economic conditions at the time I made the comment.
People on this board were - and were coming to the exact opposite conclusion that you were. I come to read the messages here as an interested bystander who likes to know what's going to happen next. The comments on this board are generally well researched and intelligent. A lot of the posters are consistently right about what will happen.
You however have been consistently wrong about absolutely everything since I started reading the comments on this board. Maybe it might be a good time for you to start reading and stop writing for a while until you gain enough knowledge to post something that might actually turn out to be correct?
I would guess some of it is the simple fact, there just isn't much left to discuss. The train has left the station, now we just sit back and watch the wreck. \t Comrade Kristina | \t \t \tHomepage | \t01.29.09 - 11:44 am | #
So true, but in a way that's the problem. We all seem to think it can't be fixed this year, maybe not next year. The reality, though, is that we have to fix it to keep this country going in a form that bears some resemblence to the greatness it once had.
crispy&cole said: "but then it backed-off to -524,000 in December"
Then it rose to 588,000 today...."
Well, we finally get to the root of your problem: You don't know the difference between net job losses from non-farm payrolls and unemployment claims.
Now I know that I don't need to ever respond to your posts anymore because you don't know what you're talking about and aren't interested in knowing, either.
Well the idiot hall monitor is back. You have read all of my post? I bang on both more the liberals but both get. Keep dreaming the drugs do a body good.
"BULLSHIT. Every single post you put up is an apologia for Republicans or an attack on Democrats."
Sebastian said: "Based on what was known at the time, my comments weren't ridiculous at the time but were based on facts that didn't need to be rationalized or spun to be valid."
Well...I knew they were rediculous...proven by the fact that I SAVED the comments!!!! AND ALL THE OTHER LUDICROUS COMMENTS ABOVE...
This recession was the easiest call in the history of finance and I put my entire net worth on the line (went to cash). And I am no financial "expert".
You weren't using FACTS, you were using hope, spin, or self dillusion.
As the Obama administration apparently prepares to launch Hankie Pankie II buying troubled assets from banks at prices higher than they will fetch on the open market it occurred to me that an updated versionof an old Communist-era joke may be appropriate: under Bush, financial policy consisted of Wall Street types cutting sweet deals, at taxpayer expense, for Wall Street types. Under Obama, its precisely the reverse.
sportsfan, I just don't see it being in our hands. FRom what I'm watching of the Stimulus package it's going to be a disaster. Poor Obama, he thought he could somehow get the derilicts in Congress to do something useful. Instead, they quibble and bicker about BS instead of putting together a sane, workable stimulus.
"You landlords properties paid for?
Economist Moe Howard 3SU | 01.29.09 - 11:52 am | #"
EMHSU,
He was covered in paint spatter the day I signed the lease. Crusty old fucker. His exact words..."I just saved myself 1K painting my one empty". I think his Explorer is in worse shape than my POS Neon. When I asked if owned outright he just smiled.
His mailing adress is a place on the Peace River bought 15+ years ago...
LOL. In Texas there have been a lot of golf course communities built in this boom. They all tried to go for the upscale market and charge $50-$150 for a round. They are going to be hurting. My favorite place to play for the last few years charges $18 for a round in the afternoon, and the greens are decent. Recently, a website, Golf 512, has popped up. Courses around Austin post tee times they want filled at a discount. The competition will probably get fierce as this goes on.
My question: Whose bearish comments today are going to look foolish 6 months, a year, or two years down the road?
Sebastian Sebastian | 01.29.09 - 11:51 am | #
How about extend the time scale out to infinity so we can all look like fools and you won't be so alone
Your comments were foolish at the time and only moreso now. The rational of how things have played out was mentioned early and often, I even called the Q and the year it would fall apart well in advance.
Market bottom late summer 09, Housing bottom October 09, GDP bottom Q3 09, don't leave recession til April 10, anemic "recovery" until 2012 at least.
I think the Republicans really honed the whole confutation of the party and the state thing. Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 11:52 am | #
You definitely have that right.
The thing that scared me so much about BushCo was the abrogation of all our rights. "Patriot Act"? Could be the worst piece of legislation ever, and Dems voted for that, too. When will Obama correct that???
The economy didn't scare me, because it's fate was predetermined; he just accelerated the endgame.
"That said, the foundation for everything that happened in the 2000's was laid in prior decades. The Greenspan PUT, the virtual abandonment of bank reserve requirements, the repeal of Glass-Stegal, etc. (and there are many, many others) all happened in the prior decade with both parties fingerprints all over it."
He was covered in paint spatter the day I signed the lease. Crusty old fucker. His exact words..."I just saved myself 1K painting my one empty". I think his Explorer is in worse shape than my POS Neon. When I asked if owned outright he just smiled.
I would like to see his other car. Sounds about like me. He gets it.
MrPeregrination said: "...Maybe it might be a good time for you to start reading and stop writing for a while until you gain enough knowledge to post something that might actually turn out to be correct?"
You mean like when I recently said that I thought the unemployment rate would continue to rise and total net job-losses would, too?
Personal golf anecdotal...used to play fairly regularly(public courses; no country clubs). Golf went through the Tiger boom, but built courses that are too hard for the average player. Guys that play once a week, maybe hit a bucket of balls once a week, can't make a decent score on all the courses that were designed for low handicappers. That's a big turnoff.
A lot of people tried golf, found how difficult it is relative to other rec activities and got turned off quickly, IMO. Plus ridiculous green fees. The courses were funded based on high green fee and high usage cash flow...when that doesn't show up they go BK. Some have, a lot more will.
"A moratorium on housing news won't cure any of the economic ills we face. But it might restore at least a little balance in the home-sale markets, easing the skittishness of potential buyers"
Next - no jobs report, no unemployment report, confidence indexes, trade or balance of payments...
Economist Moe Howard 3SU writes:
Looks like someone left the computer room unlocked at the mental hospital again.
Economist Moe Howard 3SU | 01.29.09 - 11:32 am
Too funny! But there's a lot of truth in that statement.
"cobradriver, wtf are you? I need a house like that."
beer_motor | 01.29.09 - 11:57 am | #
Port Charlotte,FL. Our area is interesting due to all the rebuilding after Charlie. Everybody needed a place to live so it really juiced the area. Now all the construction people are gone. Oooooops.
Just search the MLS in a 10 mile radius of Northport/Port Charlotte/Fort Myers,any of these, and check out what pops up...
--
Sebastian is a perfect example of what is wrong with Americans when it comes to economy, investments and politics. I have known this character before he came to this blog and there is ZERO improvement in his ability to understand the economy. I am sure that Sebastian is a good and well-meaning man, but lifetime of propaganda, i.e., doping, takes its toll on people.
I am not of either party. Now what crap do you have to state?
Economist Moe Howard 3SU | 01.29.09 - 11:03 am | #
I'm going to have to call bullshit too. I marked you (irritating) because of your partisan polemic. If you truly believe you're not of either party, then you're either delusional or highly divided and ashamed.
".....Personally, I see this as the culmination of bad policy moves over the entire past century." - Comrade Bear (tj & the bear)
.....how right you are.
Gary.....you ought to try a little.....what do you "over-zealous left-wingers call it; "tolerance"? ....LOL
20-million unemployed by July and "Adult Day Care license applications are on the increase. Many more elderly are hanging out on-line instead of at the entrance to neighborhood stores, parks, and other community businesses......"
I would guess some of it is the simple fact, there just isn't much left to discuss. The train has left the station, now we just sit back and watch the wreck. \t Comrade Kristina | \t \t \tHomepage | \t01.29.09 - 11:44 am | #
So true, but in a way that's the problem. We all seem to think it can't be fixed this year, maybe not next year. The reality, though, is that we have to fix it to keep this country going in a form that bears some resemblence to the greatness it once had.
Phooey. Haloscan ate my comment. I was pointing out that Anonymous said
Somebody hit CTRL-ALT-DEL in Sept./Oct. and we're in the process of a hard reboot.
Which means the global financial system runs on Windows. Well, there's your problem! I move that we downgrade our Vista depression to an XP recession before it is too late.
Personally, I see this as the culmination of bad policy moves over the entire past century. \t Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) | \t \t \t \t01.29.09 - 11:54 am
I see it starting around 1985. Some might say this is the natural result of Reaganomics.
It is the debt, Stupid! (Implosion of private debt, especially, the household debt, is highly deflationary). Jas Jain | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 11:56 am | #
Calling Schiff a failure when the reaction to a deflationary environment is just getting started seems prematrure. He had no idea that Paulson and co. would waste so much time trying to save his masters at GS, rather than addressing the issues at hand.
The era of the deflationary environment days are numbered.
Please take care of mp. We need him around to post during this troubled period. There are fans out there who appreciate his and your opinions about this mess we are going thru.
Thanks for all the good work over the last 2+ years.
Anonymous writes:
By Anthony Faiola
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, January 29, 2009; Page A01
The stimulus bill passed by the House last night contains a controversial provision that would mostly bar foreign steel and iron from the infrastructure projects laid out by the $819 billion economic package.
Should have read "passed by the demoKrats in the House". Looks like the obamacons are going for a trade war.
Honestly, The homes number surprises me that it's that high. The problem with so many new structures are the HOAs and Mello Roos. So if an existing home becomes a viable purchase at 80/2ft, then the new homes need to be 65 to 70/2ft.
Someone wake me when an average Jane with solid finacing can buy a house at a price where she has a hell's chance of paying off in her lifetime.
Average Joe said: "...This recession was the easiest call in the history of finance and I put my entire net worth on the line (went to cash). And I am no financial "expert"."
No, if it was the easiest call in history and you had put your entire net worth on the line you would have been short.
Clearly, it wasn't the easiest call in history which is why you didn't actually have the confidence you claim you do now.
Many things that are abundantly clear in hindsight are awfully murky in real-time.
All I ask is to be judged based on what could be known at the time and not by things that could only have been truly known after the fact.
Nemo?
Well, you can't hit a bottom without a low.
When do we get a zero print ?
Nemo!
That is patheitc, but absolutely reflects the times.
Well, that's all fine and good, but I just heard on CNBC that the bottom is in. So, I'm going to relax.
Nemo
Can new home sales go negative?
Who knew Jas was so optimistic, LOL!!!
He still is a pain in the ass.
that's a lot of homes
Elvis!! From Hell's heart I spit at thee!
Or stab. Yikes!
Break out the bulldozers.
"Well, that's all fine and good, but I just heard on CNBC that the bottom is in."
Haven't you heard that on CNBC about every half hour for the last year or two?
Now that is a slope!
CR, how bout a little admission that you never thought we'd get this low.
The most pessimistic have continually best most right.
Vladimir Putin calls for end of dollar stranglehold - The one reserve currency has become a danger to the world economy: that is now obvious to everybody
Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin calls for end of dollar stranglehold - Telegraph
A message from one dead empire to one that's dying.
CR, Last year, you thought the recession will not be severe. With the latest data, has your outlook changed? Thanks.
How about using stimulus money to knock down stuff?
âWe have a financial system that is run by private shareholders, managed by private institutions, and we'd like to do our best to preserve that system." Tom Geithner
Sort of not off-topic:
Blackhalo,
In response to your query yesterday Re: my colleague's house and having received a "lowball" offer -- yes, in retrospect, the lowball was probably a fair price but definitely not one my colleague was able to afford to sell at.
He and his wife have no need to sell, I think they are just trying to "move up". They can certainly afford the house they're in now -- I think they just wanted more space.
-Mike J
The census bureau is going to hire 1.3 million temp workers for the 2010 census. We can all get rich counting each other!
Break out the bulldozers.
\t Elvis | \t \t \t \t01.29.09 - 10:29 am | #
Elvis | 01.29.09 - 10:29 am | #
Whoops, I guess Elvis said it better
âWe have a financial system that is run by private shareholders, managed by private institutions, and we'd like to do our best to preserve that system." Tom Geithner
\t sexy derivative | \t \t \t \t01.29.09 - 10:32 am | #
Cesna lays of 4,600
These lows start to really sink in when you learn that the last time sales were the low was a few years before you were born.
Falsifiability and the Austrian School.
Lets move on to price discovery...
[CR, Last year, you thought the recession will not be severe. With the latest data, has your outlook changed? Thanks.
mouser ]
He already indicated he will revise his outlook. Obviously the "Unemployment won't hit 8%" forecast doesn't look too likely here.
The United States, it turns out, has declared war on Roquefort cheese.
In its final days, the Bush administration imposed a 300 percent duty on Roquefort, in effect closing off the U.S. market. Americans, it declared, will no longer get to taste the creamy concoction that, in its authentic, most glorious form, comes with an odor of wet sheep and veins of blue mold that go perfectly with rye bread and coarse red wine.
a friend of mine works for California Pacific homes, Division of the Irvine Co. in Orange County. He is upper management, now on 4 day work week and no bonus....they think it is temporary..
but i thought relitters had skilz
We have already crossed 8% U3 (in real time).
//He already indicated he will revise his outlook. Obviously the "Unemployment won't hit 8%" forecast doesn't look too likely here.
bearly | 01.29.09 - 10:36 am | #//
These are Greater Depression type numbers.
If you listen closely, you can hear the sound of a whirring fan. That's the economy shutting down. Somebody hit CTRL-ALT-DEL in Sept./Oct. and we're in the process of a hard reboot. The screen is going dark, the L.E.D.'s are blinking red and we're heading for a global reset.
When the system comes back up, don't press any keys for awhile or everything will really be messed up.
"These are Greater Depression type numbers.
ac"
Actually The Naked Depression 2 and 1/2 -- The Smell of Fear.
...LOL.....at last count many census workers spent hours at locked gates trying to update non-returned info. Should be more interesting THIS year with expanded info gathering and higher likability quotient for FedGov employees....
Still need some builder BK's before I start to feel all warm and fuzzy inside.
Won't be long now !
Obviously the "Unemployment won't hit 8%" forecast doesn't look too likely here.
bearly
I'm sticking w/ 12-13% in CA
Nationally 9-10% (peaking at just over 10%)
Rust Belt 20-25%
Another record!
It is different this time!
The bottom is in. Market to rally 5% today.
.....many builders just fade into their gardens and rec rooms during "idle times"....
Re: Builder BK's
Mercedes Homes filed Ch. 11 two days ago. Haven't looked to see who they expect will provide DIP financing. My guess is liquidation can't be far off given the credit environment for even highly-rated companies.
(fwiw - S&P earnings 2009 vs 2008, YoY -33%)
Didn't CR report this just several days prior? It's not really news, is it? News would be if the record were in the opposite direction. We all know the housing bubble is seriously deflating. The real question is how far and how long will it deflate, and, will it reinflate, and if so, when.
Vermont has the lowest foreclosure rate in the country...combo of yankee thrift and state laws...Bloomberg says they even have a housing shortage.
Bloomberg.com
I guess we'll have to wait for a 3rd half recovery.
A former Fannie Mae IT contractor has been indicted for planting a virus that would have nuked the mortgage agencys computers, caused millions of dollars in damages and even shut down operations.
Fannie Mae IT contractor indicted for planting malware; Mortgage giant didn't revoke server privileges | Between the Lines
| ZDNet.com
OMG
It's an unfortunate time to be or know a realtor.
fried writes:
Vermont has the lowest foreclosure rate in the country...combo of yankee thrift and state laws...Bloomberg says they even have a housing shortage.
Bloomberg.com refer=home
fried | 01.29.09 - 10:43 am | #
Sounds like an ad. I'll pass it along to the good folks in Mexico City. Their city is sinking at an alarming rate because they have depleted the aquifers beneath it, and they will need to relocate 20 million people. Vermont sounds like a wonderful candidate for that relocation.
By Anthony Faiola
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, January 29, 2009; Page A01
The stimulus bill passed by the House last night contains a controversial provision that would mostly bar foreign steel and iron from the infrastructure projects laid out by the $819 billion economic package.
A Senate version, yet to be acted upon, goes further, requiring, with few exceptions, that all stimulus-funded projects use only American-made equipment and goods.
Proponents of expanding the "Buy American" provisions enacted during the Great Depression, including steel and iron manufacturers and labor unions, argue that it is the only way to ensure that the stimulus creates jobs at home and not overseas.
Opponents, including some of the biggest blue-chip names in American industry, say it amounts to a declaration of war against free trade. That, they say, could spark retaliation from abroad against U.S. companies and exacerbate the global financial crisis.
These are Greater Depression type numbers.
ac | 01.29.09 - 10:38 am | #
And the rate of decline is accelerating.
All around me I see fear. Everyone is cutting spending. Can government spending offset the private market deflation?
To me the answer is largely irrelevant. Prosperity has taken early retirement.
RKH is climbing back - a similar move preceeded yesterday's rally.
@ REBear "Makwanas access wasnt terminated when he was"
= shitty management practices
A former Fannie Mae IT contractor has been indicted for planting a virus that would have nuked the mortgage agencys computers, caused millions of dollars in damages and even shut down operations. Howd this happen? The contractor was terminated, but his server privileges were not.
Rajendrasinh Makwana was indicted on Tuesday in the U.S. District Court for Maryland (press report, complaint and indictment PDFs). From early 2006 to Oct. 24, Makwana was a contractor for Fannie Mae. According to the indictment, Makwana allegedly targeted Fannie Maes network after he was terminated. The goal was to cause damage to Fannie Maes computer network by entering malicious code that was intended to execute on January 31, 2009.
Fannie Mae IT contractor indicted for planting malware; Mortgage giant didn't revoke server privileges | Between the Lines
| ZDNet.com
Can you say get those bastards? I ca
Isn't dan w from Vermont?
Received an email from a local country club-lite. One where there are golf memberships, social memberships, etc. Not really a prestige place, but the sort of upper middle class hangout for people to take their children and hobknob with people exactly like themselves.
Lots of discounts now, special offers, limited time, delayed dues etc. I had actually wanted to join just for the tennis (courts are hard to find where I live) and for my kids to swim, and learn golf. I think these places must be getting killed too. Any other anecdotal data out there on this topic.
Are builders selling at or close to cost?
Or are they still expecting most excellent pricing?
Just wondered how realistic builders were in their pricing, and how that might be affecting sales.
One thing that is different from the previous Depression and now is not just the amount of personal debt but the attitude towards that debt. My Mom, born in 1926 said that they were under stress because they owed $23.00. They eventually paid it off but to them (don't know how that compares to $$'s today) it was a "personal" debt and they were determined to pay it off. Today, not so much.....
Those Republicans sure can be proud of what they have done to the economy.
Worst economy ever. Congratulations.
how naieve of you to blame a political pary for this mess...
Elvis, I appreciate your pain, but exactly what good will bulldozing do? If we get rid of excess inventory, and still are not selling any homes because no one has ability to buy... Tell me again how that helps. We can't force prices to stay up by limiting supply, if no one can pay.
LOL @ that Vermont article:
"We don't have foreclosures because we're Puritans."
I think somebody got on my case a while back for suggesting that in early America the speculators often didn't make it through the winter while the Puritans did.
Those Republicans sure can be proud of what they have done to the economy.
Worst economy ever. Congratulations.
Anonymous | 01.29.09 - 10:54 am |
Great assist by Democrats! They couldn't have done it with out them.
One thing that has become evident is that the big homebuilders did an amazing job of offloading their risk. With so many small to medium builders in bankruptcy, some big builder bankruptcies seem inevitable. But just to have made it this far is pretty remarkable.
@girlbear: "What cost $23.00 in 1926 would cost $267.31 in 2007"
These are Greater Depression type numbers.
ac | 01.29.09 - 10:38 am | #
And the rate of decline is accelerating.
All around me I see fear. Everyone is cutting spending. Can government spending offset the private market deflation?
To me the answer is largely irrelevant. Prosperity has taken early retirement.
Angry Saver.
Increasingly I'm thinking the focus needs to be on surviving what's coming, not so much in avoiding it.
Look at all the money we've already thrown at this thing, and still we keep getting the litany of "worst on record" type numbers.
For a while I think we're going to have to bear with a "worst on record" kind of life without destroying ourselves.
Barley writes:
Obviously the "Unemployment won't hit 8%" forecast doesn't look too likely here.
bearly
I'm sticking w/ 12-13% in CA
You know there are already counties in the central valley that are over 12%, right?
SOMALI PIRATES: Mr. MAKWANA SAYS IT WAS A HONEST MISTAKE.
@girlbear: "What cost $23.00 in 1926 would cost $267.31 in 2007"
Barley | 01.29.09 - 10:56 am | #
Today's stress level starts at $267,310.00. Worse if you live in a Case Schiller top 20 state.
Somebody hit CTRL-ALT-DEL in Sept./Oct. and we're in the process of a hard reboot. The screen is going dark, the L.E.D.'s are blinking red and we're heading for a global reset.
If it were a true reboot, my bills would be gone. Unfortunately, my mortgage statement is still arriving every month, on schedule.
Hit alt-ctrl-del again. I'll let you know if it worked.
Yes, parts of CA are near 15%...see Fresno, Ca...that is a depression
Well, at least population was substantially higher in 1966...
Twice in one lifetime....ah me birth year.
Nostrovia,
"Great assist by Democrats! They couldn't have done it with out them.
Economist Moe Howard 3SU"
Foolish response. From 2002 through 2006, they DID do it without them. They did EVERYTHING without them. Since early '07, the makings of this CRASH were already in place. Thanks to Republicans.
Congratulations, stupid Republicans.
We need BARF now.
Bank
Asset
Recovery
Fund
Burton Malkiel, a 76-year-old economics professor at Princeton University and author of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street," says he boosted his allocation to highly rated tax-exempt bonds in his taxable account late last year, since yields available on some of these bonds were "unheard of."
Some market watchers believe that it's time to take on more risk in their bond portfolios. Even investment-grade corporate bonds offer high yields, and below-investment-grade junk bonds yield far more than that. Mr. Arnott boosted his allocation to investment-grade corporate bonds in his personal taxable account late last year because the market had reached "irrationally high yields," he says. And Jeremy Siegel, a professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School and senior adviser to exchange-traded-fund management firm WisdomTree Investments, has recently raised his allocation for junk bonds.
"Stocks and high-yield bonds will move together as the crisis passes," rebounding from their depressed levels, the 63-year-old Mr. Siegel says.
Yes, Jerry.
"Just wondered how realistic builders were in their pricing, and how that might be affecting sales."
Outsider | 01.29.09 - 10:52 am | #
Outsider,
New builds by small,independant builders are driving the market here.
You can buy a brand new 3/2/2 complete for less than 80k. It is really hard for the foreclosed stuff to compete. I had a broker tell me the only stuff selling is cheap new homes and cheap perfect older homes. If there are any flaws the property just sits...
Chris
8% was always a dream, I am sticking with 11% U3 and 20% U6...Ca numbers will be 10% in a few months (we are at 9.3% right now)
Great assist by Democrats! They couldn't have done it with out them.
Yep, seems like the one guy screaming about the danger in housing and mortgages was a Republican, albeit an out-of-consensus "fringe lunatic" Republican.
Maybe we need a Fringe Lunatic Republican (FLR) party.
Outsider,
"If it were a true reboot, my bills would be gone. Unfortunately, my mortgage statement is still arriving every month, on schedule.
Hit alt-ctrl-del again. I'll let you know if it worked."
ctrl-alt-del only reboots *nix's these days...and unfortunately *nix's have this stubborn problem of saving vi sessions even during crashes.
Sorry...not gonna help.
Nostrovia,
8% was always a dream, I am sticking with 11% U3 and 20% U6...Ca numbers will be 10% in a few months (we are at 9.3% right now)
crispy&cole | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 11:01 am | #
Since Dec 2008 was 7.2%, I think you're safe in your stick. Me, I'm thinking it might pass 13% U3 in the next couple of months.
OT:
Truly outstanding hack on electronic road signs in Austin Texas. "Zombies !"
Road signs warn of zombies | KXAN.com
Congratulations, stupid Republicans.
Anonymous | 01.29.09 - 11:00 am |
I am not of either party. Now what crap do you have to state?
"how naieve of you to blame a political pary for this mess...
girlbear "
How naive of YOU to not see this.
GovTrack: Senate
Vote On Passage:
S. 900 [106th]: Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act
I'm sure that looks bipartisan to some people, but those people are fools.
It's a great time to buy or sell REIT's
"Foolish response. From 2002 through 2006, they DID do it without them. They did EVERYTHING without them. Since early '07, the makings of this CRASH were already in place. Thanks to Republicans"
Barney said what...Would you agree?
Me, I'm thinking it might pass 13% U3 in the next couple of months.
Kirk Spencer
Possible.
(Is O still considering the youth corps thing as this will suck up a lot of otherwise frustrated youth.)
Mad Mullah - I saw that on a news segment. Laughed like hell.
Any other anecdotal data out there on this topic.
Slept in a Holiday Inn
I was at a driving range the other day. One of the workers came up to me while I was hitting balls because he thought I might be a pro
. We start talking and he says he is a pro who got laid off at a club and the best he could find was the register job at the driving range along with giving a few lessons. He said the golf business is really hurting. That's my anecdote.
Increasingly I'm thinking the focus needs to be on surviving what's coming, not so much in avoiding it.
That's my plan.
It's odd that people can't let go of trying to make money from money here.
That seems like a fools errand in an economy where fictitious capital is being rapidly vaporized and replaced by government capital.
Is there such a thing as government capital?
ac,
Unfortunately the FLR monicor is in use, by a group that likely leans Rebooblikud, unfortunately. Like that Lunatic thing though. I'd join any party with Lunatic in it...but that's just me.
Read and weep, my friend.
Family Life Radio - A Ministry of Family Life Communications
Nostrovia,
Hey, I know! Let's have a meaningless political argument about which corporately-owned party is responsible for the economy.
âWe have a financial system that is run by private shareholders, managed by private institutions, and we'd like to do our best to preserve that system."
Tim Geithner
"Barney said what...Would you agree?
LAM"
Lemme guess. You still blame Fannie Mae more than Goldman Sachs, right?
Next!
Re: Unemployment. I'm with those on the higher end. I'm guessing 15%+. If we reach 20% (U whatever), look for riots & unrest.
Dating a Banker Anonymous
I am speechless.
If we reach 20% (U whatever), look for riots & unrest.
and housing sales will still continue to drop
Sorry...not gonna help.
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope | 01.29.09 - 11:02 am | #
You tech people. You're always so negative.
Outsider said: "...Elvis, I appreciate your pain, but exactly what good will bulldozing do? If we get rid of excess inventory, and still are not selling any homes because no one has ability to buy..."
Maybe we should be a little more careful about broad generalizations like "no one has the ability to buy."
From CR's blog:
Calculated Risk: Annual Existing Home Sales
"...Before revisions, there were 4.91 million existing home sales in 2008. This is the lowest level since 1997 (4.37 million)..."
Clearly, 4.91 million people did have the ability to pay. Far below the record pace of a couple of years ago, but still a lot. And all those people are going to do what every new homeowner does after they move in, buy furniture, replace appliances, re-decorate to their own taste, change the landscaping, etc.
Sebastia
LOL. Nazi Zombies. Precious.
particle9,
I saw that website. It's good for a laugh.
We start talking and he says he is a pro who got laid off at a club and the best he could find was the register job at the driving range along with giving a few lessons. He said the golf business is really hurting. That's my anecdote.
s0mebody | 01.29.09 - 11:06 am | #
Club golf pros and tennis pros used to get more ass than a toilet seat. Now, they are lucky if they can find a job cleaning bathrooms! Such is life.
Angry Saver,
"Is there such a thing as government capital?"
They spell it with an O.
Nostrovia,
Plenty of time to let go of making money when you are dead. In the mean time, I'll pass on simply giving up.
Sebastian - You said UE claims were declining...wrong again....have you ever been correct?
Outsider,
New builds by small,independant builders are driving the market here.
You can buy a brand new 3/2/2 complete for less than 80k.
Cobra - Do you feel they are in the black at that pricing? Includes land?
Obviously it doesn't matter if they're the sales drivers if they are in the red with each sale. But if they're in the black, power to them.
The excellent adventures of Just-In-Time Capital being LATE!
I am speechless.
particle9
lol.
Somewhere out there is probably a "Trophy Wifes Annon" program for men.
"If we get rid of excess inventory, and still are not selling any homes because no one has ability to buy... Tell me again how that helps. We can't force prices to stay up by limiting supply, if no one can pay.
Outsider"
Very generally, the goal is to find the price bottom the quickiest. The quickier supply and demand reach/near equilibrium the faster this will happen. When demand is falling and an enormous oversupply exists, prices will fall for many, many years (which also brings down the paper that floods the system for many, many years). Importantly, there is no confidence in the market to invest in the homes or paper, because there is no end in sight for falling prices. In order to increase the speed to reach equilibrium and restore confidence in the market, you can reduce supply by bulldozing while salavaging useful material (and you still have the land). Oh course, this isn't an ideal solution, but, these are not ideal times. And it gets at the root of the matter. Same thing would need to occur with commerical albeit at a leesser scale.
"...Before revisions, there were 4.91 million existing home sales in 2008. This is the lowest level since 1997 (4.37 million)..."
Clearly, 4.91 million people did have the ability to pay. Far below the record pace of a couple of years ago, but still a lot. And all those people are going to do what every new homeowner does after they move in, buy furniture, replace appliances, re-decorate to their own taste, change the landscaping, etc.
Sebastian | 01.29.09 - 11:09 am | #
And 30% of those were Repos and subsequent sales to stronger hands representing 2 losers and one eventual possessor.
crispy&cole writes:
Yes, parts of CA are near 15%...see Fresno, Ca...that is a depression
Speaking of Fresno, CA... For as long as I can remember, everything I've ever sent to the IRS has gone to a service center in either Kansas City or Cincinnati. This year the return label for my 1040 sends it to Fresno. Has the IRS been consolidating/laying off people?
"Stocks and high-yield bonds will move together as the crisis passes," rebounding from their depressed levels, the 63-year-old Mr. Siegel says.
He's right. The problem is the crisis is not going to pass anytime soon.
Siegle's should revise the title of his book to:
"The bank debt market has changed dramatically over the past twelve months," said Jason Reese, CEO of Imperial Capital Group, LLC. "We are adding additional expertise to better serve our institutional clients in this dynamic market."
Great time to buy lots of shares in beat up little techs:
GENITOPE CORP, up 133% today
Lots of discounts now, special offers, limited time, delayed dues etc. I had actually wanted to join just for the tennis (courts are hard to find where I live) and for my kids to swim, and learn golf. I think these places must be getting killed too. Any other anecdotal data out there on this topic.
Local upper-middle-class country club is also getting killed. They shut down their kitchen, fired their cook of 35 years that everyone loved, and are looking for other ways to cut back.
girlbear writes:
how naieve of you to blame a political pary for this mess...
Hey a lil' trickle-down from a Con wench, the day is complete.
This is what Conservative Republicans consider "bipartisanship" ... Both Sides Did It.
Yes, they both did: seditious scum lying Republicans and the traitors in the Dem Party who sold out to them.
oh, and FUCK you Bearbitch--your Con stink is all oveer yur pstinG.
Change the Republican mascot from Elephant to Lemming and follow Rushbo to wherever the hell you are going, you transparently fascist idiot fucks.
Problem with stupid people is they are too stupid to know it.
"And all those people are going to do what every new homeowner does after they move in, buy furniture, replace appliances, re-decorate to their own taste, change the landscaping, etc.
Sebastian"
Half of those were foreclosures bought to rent out. Highly unlikely they will be furnished rentals.
Good try, though, Seb. You are a piece of work.
Another anecdote:
One of my best friend's little brother is the club pro at a posh club in Dallas. He plays golf with a bunch of guys from the Dallas Stars, Mavericks, Cowboys all the time. Must be rough.
Lemme guess. You still blame Fannie Mae more than Goldman Sachs, right?
Next!
Anonymous
Franklin Reins ring a bell? Fannie Mae. Ever herd of him a Clinton staffer? The economy is the only Bipartisan action seen here today.
"Lemme guess. You still blame Fannie Mae more than Goldman Sachs, right"
No the 545 people that run this Country are...
Damn Haloscan.
"Stocks and high-yield bonds will move together as the crisis passes," rebounding from their depressed levels, the 63-year-old Mr. Siegel says.
He's right. The problem is the crisis is not going to pass anytime soon.
Siegle should revise the title of his book to: Stocks for the Very LOOOOONNNNNGGGGG Run(away)!
Problem with stupid people is they are too stupid to know it.
Fuck All Conservative Republic | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 11:12 am | #
Explanation and example all in one. I admire your brevity sir.
Elvis,
If I get my own empty bando sub division for subsidized artillery practice...sign me up.
Nostrovia,
....I wonder how much things might improve if the chronic complainers & whiners ("who caused this - who's to blame for my discomfort") instead learned how to garden, volunteer with the elderly, or learned what it takes to BUILD something. It might be an eye-opening event for them. I sure would appreciate the result.
crispy&cole said: "Sebastian - You said UE claims were declining...wrong again....have you ever been correct?"
Another graduate of the Karl Rove school of debate.
I did not, never even mentioned UE claims.
In fact, I even said that I thought the unemployment rate would continue to rise and the total number of unemployed would, too.
Sebastia
Not true...you said they were declining...I monitor everything you and DC1000 say, sorry you said that...
"If I get my own empty bando sub division for subsidized artillery practice...sign me up.
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope"
Just don't hit the gas lines. That would be bad.
"unemployment rate would continue to rise and the total number of unemployed would, too"
Sebastian
Sometimes there are kernals of insight beyond anything I could ever imagine
Just don't hit the gas lines. That would be bad.
Elvis | 01.29.09 - 11:16 am |
Russia still has it shut off.
Just don't hit the gas lines. That would be bad.
Elvis
At todays NatGas prices, the cost would be worth the show. Probably cheaper than fireworks.
Did you guys see layoffdaily today..wow!!
Anonymous said: "Half of those were foreclosures bought to rent out. Highly unlikely they will be furnished rentals.
Good try, though, Seb. You are a piece of work."
Right back at you.
How about some data to prove that half of those foreclosures were bought to rent out?
S.
plz plz tell me this site is fake Dating a Banker Anonymous
"This year the return label for my 1040 sends it to Fresno. Has the IRS been consolidating/laying off people"
We can all talk about the IRS... aleast they can spot a deal
Right, Black Star. Build fence, string wire. Develop a field or two. Build a barn and loft. Dig a well. Plant some perimeter trees.
Farm and Ranch. Small scale and sustainable until the decade(s) of hard times pass and the economy could flourish again. Hard, simple, prosperous life.
Maybe we should be a little more careful about broad generalizations like "no one has the ability to buy."
The reason I say that Seb is not because no one has the ability to buy right now, but because I see job losses accelerating at an alarming rate, and the logical outcome of a service economy in a global depression. If they have the ability to buy today, they may well not have it tomorrow, and even if they do, they're going to be too scared to do anything.
Of course, you know all this. It's just rehash.
Ugly picture but...
Overall inventory (# units) is at a 5-6 year low? # months reflects a temporary lull in sales - likely due to job loss fears and the election uncertainty. Interest rates should impact these.
Don't forget census inventory DOES include empty tract lots - some of which are in receivership.
When they actually count sticks in the air, places like northern CA are 2-3 months of inventory.
The suggestion to pay people to tear things down has some merit. If their is one thing we are good at in the US, it is blowing things up. And with the expertise in video games of the US proletariat, we could wire them all up, and they could have orgasms pushing buttons and seeing the explosions.
We could then hire a major military contractor to rebuild the whole thing.
"Did you guys see layoffdaily today..wow!!"
Tomorrow last Friday of the month stay tunned...
One thing about Republicans is certainly admirable, though:
the tenacity of their denial.
Very impressive.
Sippn writes:
Ugly picture but...
Sippin = perma bull from Sacramento blog who said there was no bubble...just saying
Damn, at 482k new homes for 2008- I think I might have come close to winning the housing prediction contest again!!!
Wow!
Can I have Larry Yun's old job?
I do it better!!!
Someday this war's gonna end...
Ju I think it is real but... yes please let it be fake.
crispy&cole said: "Not true...you said they were declining...I monitor everything you and DC1000 say, sorry you said that..."
Respectfully, you are mistaken. If you look it up (you won't, and even if you do, Mr. Rove, you won't post it), what I said was that I thought the monthly net job-loss had peaked.
Just amazing, how some people will lie when the truth would serve them just as well.
Sebastia
If their is one thing we are good at in the US, it is blowing things up
Subcommander Doom
(coffee everywhere)
I've watched you Rob Dawg, and you are just another example of a buried tick sucking off our corrupt financial system who pretends to be Above It All and so wise and sage-like ... or should we say "bipartisan."
While you wait for another chance to degrade our nation for your personal advantage.
The Right-wing Conservative Republican traitors let these "dawgs" out, but they just piddled on the rug and now are hiding under the couch.
Teh Daawwg is just another posing Pig.
"what I said was that I thought the monthly net job-loss had peaked"
Nice spin...so job losses have peaked, does not mean job losses have peaked???
Hey CR, who won the contest? IIRC I'm real close.
A blast from the past:
winjr asked: "Ok, Sebastian, what's your answer? You've specifically stated here that CR's prediction of 100K's of residential construction employment losses was flat out wrong. So far, the data supports your position. What's your rationale?"
The magnitude of residential construction job-losses CR was forecasting occurs during recessions. We aren't in one or headed for one any time soon.
Sebastian
\t Sebastian | \t \t \t \t06.19.07 - 12:50 pm | #
Black Star Ranch writes:
....I wonder how much things might improve if the chronic complainers & whiners ("who caused this - who's to blame for my discomfort") instead learned how to garden,
BSR - Just for curiosity, how long did it take you to make the transition to the ranch and get it going w/your garden, etc.? Because I think people may have run out of time to transition to a self-sustaining lifestyle. Unless I'm just a slowpoke.
quote:
Opponents, including some of the biggest blue-chip names in American industry, say it amounts to a declaration of war against free trade.
WHAT "blue-chip names"? The bankers posing as industrialists?
Crank up the steel mills!
Force march the money-handlers to the real jobs!
Thank you anonymous.
Thanks for the link, c-&c-, to layoffdaily.com. Ouch.
Me, this reminds me of 'Happy Days.' Fonzi could not bring himself to say, 'Sorry.'
CR cannot bring himself to say, 'Depression.'
I'm waiting, sir!
Fulton homes files Ch. 11
BofA is their #1 creditor, out for at least $100mm
On the good side, they only pulled 61 permits last year, so that inventory is due to shrink some time next decade.
Fulton Homes seeks protection from creditors, files Chapter 11
"One thing about Republicans....the tenacity of their denial."
I'm not a Repub. But lets imagine I am. OK, it's ALL MY FAULT - I'M SORRY.
Now give it a rest - You are sounding like retards. AND, especially YOU,
F***, All Conservative Republic - your Mommy should have believed more thoroughly in the result of Rowe vs. Wade!
Well Rob Dawg it all depends on what the definition of "soon" is. The recession began six months after that post...Ha.
"Depression" is the new black!
Great assist by Democrats! They couldn't have done it with out them.
Economist Moe Howard 3SU | 01.29.09 - 10:56 am | #
Denial. Hmm which stage of grief is that?
Dawg,I think the "Mean" job losses have peaked.We are now seeing the "Nice" Job losses...
Black Star Ranch(Excellent) writes:
I'm not a Repub. But lets imagine I am. OK, it's ALL MY FAULT - I'M SORRY.
Now all you need to do as their surrogate is convince them to disband. They're enemies of the state.
The suggestion to pay people to tear things down has some merit.
Subcommander Doom | 01.29.09 - 11:21 am | #
No, better to let homes go as far down as possible, thereby making them available to a broader range of people at a lower overall share of income. Let rents hit bottom, too.
The less money spent on shelter the more that'll be available for paying down debt, saving & spending.
One thing about Republicans is certainly admirable, though:
the tenacity of their denial.
Anonymous | 01.29.09 - 11:22 am | #
Yes, almost rivals that of the Democrats.
Problem with stupid people is they are too stupid to know it.
\t Fuck All Conservative Republic | \t \t \tHomepage | \t01.29.09 - 11:12 am |
The Irony is thick
crispy&cole: "Nice spin...so job losses have peaked, does not mean job losses have peaked???"
It's not spin, it's what I said in the first place, Mr. Rove. The fact that you either don't remember it accurately or never understood what I was saying in the first place reflects poorly on you, not me.
Sebastia
Dawg,I think the "Mean" job losses have peaked.We are now seeing the "Nice" Job losses...
Tom Stone | 01.29.09 - 11:29 am | #
LOL. Thread's over, nothing more to say.
Elvis: When demand is falling and an enormous oversupply exists, prices will fall for many, many years (which also brings down the paper that floods the system for many, many years).
I'm with you so far.
Importantly, there is no confidence in the market to invest in the homes or paper, because there is no end in sight for falling prices.
Yup.
In order to increase the speed to reach equilibrium and restore confidence in the market, you can reduce supply by bulldozing while salavaging useful material (and you still have the land).
Artificial cure. I don't believe that will work. The problem has zoomed down past housing, into the subterra somewhere. Worst case scenario, I see all oversupply bulldozed, and families living in tent cities, still not buying. Maybe I'm a pessimist.
I believe we should "out" those who put us in this fix.
While there's plenty of blame & stupidity to go around, there were those who abused their positions of power. I believe in taking responsibility for your actions. Is that not the basis for rule of law & justice? If we blame no one, those responsible, get away with it.
Stick a stake in their black hearts so they'll never rise again.
I believe in retribution & justice.
Looks like someone left the computer room unlocked at the mental hospital again.
.....a lot of this reminds me of "serious" conversations with most 16-year old boys. What a hopeless venture.
Orders for U.S. durable goods fell in December for a fifth month, the longest slide since at least 1992, reflecting a collapse in business investment that's likely to prolong the recession.
The 2.6 percent drop was worse than economists had forecast, a Commerce Department report showed today in Washington. Excluding automobiles and aircraft, orders decreased 3.6 percent, also more than anticipated. The Labor Department said separately that the number of Americans collecting jobless benefits soared to a record 4.776 million.
Today's reports reflect efforts by companies from General Motors Corp. to Caterpillar Inc. to downsize amid a pullback in both domestic spending and demand from overseas. The Federal Reserve yesterday warned that a prolonged global downturn may push the U.S. to the brink of deflation.
âThere is lots of pain," Ward McCarthy, a principal at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates in Skillman, New Jersey, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview. The economy was âdeteriorating over the course of the fourth quarter and that deterioration has continued into the first quarter," he said, anticipating that the unemployment rate may exceed 9 percent for the first time since 1983.
BTW, the IRS is ramping up hiring in a number of cities. There had been a hiring freeze under BushCo. Just google it.
Another golf anecdote:
I played at The Honors Club (formerly Columbia Oaks) north of Dallas over Christmas break. Memberships are around $40,000 plus monthly dues around $1000. The course is nothing special, it's just been there for about 60+ years (guessing age). The club house was closed. It had been completely gutted, furniture, lights, everything. The "pro shop" was being run out of a trailer next to the practice green. It looked like they would be declaring bankruptcy shortly.
"No, better to let homes go as far down as possible, thereby making them available to a broader range of people at a lower overall share of income."
This doesn't prevent the price of homes from falling more. The price of homes will go back to historical levels, because of a return to rational lending based on income and downpayments. Too much of anything is a bad thing (except a bunch of things).
---05-07-08 Brian Wesbury on CNBC says "I predict Dow 15,000 by the end of the year" (2008) Dow at 13,000 when he said it. He also reitterated his "no recession" call.
---05-07-08 Frequent CR poster Sebastian said (In response to the above Wesbury comment): "I don't know what model(s) he uses, but the fact of the matter is that DJIA at 15,000 by the end of the year isn't really out of line.
Sebastian
Sebastian | 05.07.08 - 12:39 pm | #
Paradigm Lost writes:
I believe we should "out" those who put us in this fix.
Do we really know who is at the heart of this onion? We can peel layer after layer, but who is the real culprit(s)?
There had been a hiring freeze under BushCo
Paradigm Lost
'splains the deficit
08/27/08 S&P 500 at 1281 Sebastian writes:
Just looking at the chart, the closest "match" to the current numbers looks like about mid-1982...a huge rebound out of a major generational low, also coinciding with the beginning of a major new secular bull market in stocks.
But I'm sure it's different this time.
Portland, Oregon here. RE prices still very high relative to household incomes (around 50k). This guy has the local market action report.
Portland Real Estate Agent Blog - Search Portland Neighborhood Listings
As you can see, we have over 14 months of inventory, not counting shadow and holdouts.
This kills worker mobility. The game of musical chairs is over, there is no chain reaction.
Clearly, 4.91 million people did have the ability to pay."
Seb, how many of these were govt backed FHA buyers putting 3% down in a falling market?
Black Star Ranch(Excellent) writes:
.....a lot of this reminds me of "serious" conversations with most 16-year old boys. What a hopeless venture.
How about "Sorry doesn't cut it."
They wrecked American society. The ones that still identify with them are traitors through and through. They are more loyal to the party than the Republic, and most of them American Taliban to boot.
Deal. Stand with them and be one of them. Stand aside and be an American.
Lots of discounts now, special offers, limited time, delayed dues etc. I had actually wanted to join just for the tennis (courts are hard to find where I live) and for my kids to swim, and learn golf. I think these places must be getting killed too. Any other anecdotal data out there on this topic.
Slept in a Holiday Inn | 01.29.09 - 10:51 am | #
Don't know about golf, but the local paper just posted a list of all the "great bargains" at local restaurants -- coupons, offers, etc. There were more than a few places, places I've been to, that offered half off on the second entree, any time, no coupon, no time limit.
This is a tourist town, and it's winter; but I've never seen the like.
"Cobra - Do you feel they are in the black at that pricing? Includes land?"
Outsider | 01.29.09 - 11:10 am | #
Outsider,
The two guys I talked with both said they are making a profit. Small,but a profit. I am going to guess with where supply prices locally are they are around 5-7K per house. It is keeping them in business. The 2 guys sold almost all their lots at the top and are now stepping back in.
Think 30K+ peak(or more) and 3K now.
They will only break ground with 20+ percent down. One guy wanted 40%.
It'll be interesting to see who is still standing in 6 months...
Chris
BTW...100K gets you 1800/sqft,lani,screened enclosure and a pool,all on their lot...
"I believe in retribution & justice.
Paradigm Lost"
Massive lawlessness and chaos IS coming. I'll take Black Star Ranch's advice and volunteer to help people know at whom they should be directing their vengeance.
Look out, BSR.
BSR: "...complainers & whiners..." Get thee to Gramm country. Oops! You're already there. BTW, I do all those things suggested, but I still crave justice.
Could America survive independent of World trade?
Once this protectionism gets rolling Russian/Asian/European alliances will solidify.
--
Here is what I said about New Home Sales 9-12 months ago:
2008Q1: CR, Didn't you forecast that New Home Sales would bottom at 600K? My forecast has been for a new low below 400.
What I said after that must have pissed off CR (criticizing his ability in forecasting) because he deleted the post.
April 2008: I am forecasting that New SFH Sales would fall to 200-300K annual rate and housing starts (all types) and permits will fall below 0.5M.
Some people do understand THIS ECONOMY and some dont. People can make up their own mind as to who do and who dont. THIS IS NOT CRS ECONOMY!
Jas
BTW, the IRS is ramping up hiring in a number of cities. There had been a hiring freeze under BushCo. Just google it.
Paradigm Lost | 01.29.09 - 11:33 am |
There was a hiring freeze at the SEC up until a month ago. Maybe that will change soon. The great luminaries at CNBC were calling to abolish the SEC because of the Madoff scandal......hello??
---"This is not what a recession looks like....no way!" Mike Green and Jim Benham show 11/16/07
----Mike Green: "Wallstreet thinks things are bad, but in reality things are very good. 12/18/07 (At the time: DOW at 13,323, Nas at 2596, S&P 1454
----"I have a real problem with people not using facts in basing their opinions." Pat Powell, Powell investments (Reference Peter Schiff's opinion that we are in a recession right now 11/22/07) Q208 revisions prove he is right when Q407 comes in at -.02
----"all the bad news is priced into financials" Mike Green and Jim Benham show 12/14/07
----Fred Layne on Bloomerg (layne and Barry) "This is a great time to be a buyer of equities 12/19/07.
----Donald Luskin calls the bottom for financials on 12/07/07 (VFH financial index at $56.22 at time of call)
-=--Economist Monti says there will probably not be a recession in 2008, Bloomberg 12/17/07
----Mike Green: "This is the cheapest stocks have been in my lifetime" 12/17/07
----Michael Darda from MKM partners: "There is no evidence for that (recession)" "I think those who think a recession is coming are wrong, dead wrong". 12/20/07
----Bruce Kassim "We think growth will rebound rather smartly in the second half of 08" 12/20/07
----Larry Kudlow "It does not look like a recession to me!" 12/20/07
----Brian Wesbury on Larry Kudlow show, "Brian Wesbury is not seeing recession, so add me to that list" 12/20/07 (Estimated 3.0 real growth next year, while Roubini estimated -1.5% 2008)
----Buzz Zaino, Royce & Associates: "I think the spring will see a rise in homebuying, why wait until 2009, the early buyers will get the best deal." "I think we've seen the bottom (housing stocks)" 12/26/07
----Richard DeKaser National City Chief Economist: "I think the first half of 08 will have GDP at less than 1% with a rebound to 3% in the second half of 08".
----Joe Brusuelus "I see an average growth of 2.1% for 2008. I think we will skirt a recession." 01/02/08
----Brian Wesbury calls for Dow 15,000 by end of 2008!!!. Reaffirms a no recession call. 01/02/08
----Paul Kandel "I think we skirt by both a recession and stagflation and just see slow growth for 2008." 01/02/08
----Mike Green "These tech stocks are the cheapest I've ever seen them" 01/02/08
----01/06/08 Abby Joseph Coen calls for a 14% return on the S&P for 2008 to 1650 due to avoiding recession. (Cohen loses job calling S&P on 3/17/08, replacement calls for drop to 1160 and rebound to 1300 by year's end)
----01/06/08 Colin Glingsman of Oppenheimer Capital..."This month (Jan) is the bottom for financials, we will have a slight recession, the stock market will be up on anticipation for 2009, the bottom for housing stocks is upon us"
----01/06/08 Jeffy Kleintop (LPL Investments) "This is a great time for stocks since they are pricing in a recession that won't happen."
Vermont has the lowest foreclosure rate in the country...combo of yankee thrift and state laws...Bloomberg says they even have a housing shortage.
Not too much room for too many locusts, however.
Locusts all thinking, "where can I go to find the crunchy granola existence I've always dreamed of, without any black or brown folks around?!? I know - Vermont! No one's thought of that yet!"
----01/06/08 Brian Wesbury "I don't think we are headed for a recession"
----01/08/08 NEW YORK, Jan 8 (Reuters) - BlackRock Inc global equities chief investment officer Bob Doll on Tuesday forecast U.S. stocks will reach record highs again in 2008 as the U.S narrowly escapes a recession.
(BlackRock's Doll sees record year for stocks in 2008
| Reuters
---01/28/08 Lincold Anderson (LTL Financial) on Bloomberg: "We see this as a buying opportunity (for stocks), we don't see a recession ahead" (S&P at 1353 at the time).
---01/30/08 David Boss on Bloomberg after the planned 50bps cut by Bernanke: "We think equities are going to be up 12 months from now."(S&P at 1355 at the time)
---02/04/08 Fritz Meyer on Bloomberg commenting on the highest insider buying in January since 1996 "I think the insiders know when to buy. I would guess that at the end of '08, the market would be substantially higher than it is now. (said S&P at 1600 by year's end was "entirely reasonable"(S&P at 1380 at the time))
---02/06/08 Jim Cramer, "I'm predicting a housing shortage and a bank stock shortage...There's gonna be a housing shortage a year from now!".
---02/08/08 Joe Keeting of First American Asset Mngmt, On Bloomberg, very bullish on stocks "I think we can do 10-15% this year. I think you will see low double digit gains" He also said "Bank of American is a good place to be right now. (BAC at $43.07 at the time of the call, $21.00 by 10/23/08)"
---02/11/08 Barton Biggs on Bloomberg "I think valuations are quite attractive, unless you think we are going into some kind of credit abyss...and I think that's unlikely".
---02/21/08 Neil Hennessy, (chronic bull, who was saying buy stocks all second half of 07), "We happen to be in good economic times but people just don't believe it.." Bloomberg TV interview/ Dow at 12,279.
---03/11/08 David Sewerby on Bloomberg, "there are some attractive valuations out there and the fed is easing. I think we are at the bottom for stocks." (Dow was up 400 to 12,140 on that day)
---03/14/08 Barton Biggs on Bloomberg, (after the Bear Stearns blow-up), "The markets are trying to make a bottom here. (DOW at 11,951) We think we could see a 1000 point rally soon. Sometime you have to make a stand. This is just panic and you have to buy when it's the at the worst. We are in (the market) right now.
---03/14/08 Jerry Jordon on Bloomberg, (Dow at 11,951), I think you load up on (stocks) Monday, and on Tuesday....This may sound crazy, but I think we hit all time highs (for stocks) this year(2008)!
---03/17/08 Jim Paulsen on Bloomberg, "The S&P is still expected to earn double digit profits, I think it's already priced in." S&P at 1276.
---03/20/08 Punk, Ziegel & Co.'s Richard Bove says "now is the time to invest in banks, any more bad news will be meaningless. The financial crisis is over and investors should take advantage of the "once-in-a-generation opportunity" to buy banking stocks"
---03/20/08 Brian Wesbury on CNBC "We are not going to have a recession. A recession is highly unlikely. We see 2.0% this quarter. We don't see anything close to a recession."
---03/22/08 Moe Ansari calls the bottom of the market on his radio show. Dow at 12,361, S&P at 1329.51 Nas at 2258.
---05-07-08 Brian Wesbury on CNBC says "I predict Dow 15,000 by the end of the year" (2008) Dow at 13,000 when he said it. He also reitterated his "no recession" call.
---05-07-08 Frequent CR poster Sebastian said (In response to the above Wesbury comment): "I don't know what model(s) he uses, but the fact of the matter is that DJIA at 15,000 by the end of the year isn't really out of line.
Sebastian
Sebastian | 05.07.08 - 12:39 pm | #
---05/08/08 Barton Biggs on bloomberg encouraging going long saying "The economy is just not that bad off...we are talking to companies and aren't hearing the gloom and doom that others think is out there."
---05/11/08 After Meredith Whitney sasy Citi is the most overvalued financial stock at $23, Charles Peabody on bloomberg sees Citi in the mid 30's by mid 2009, thinks many are too pessimistic on economy.
---05/11/08 On bloomberg Charles Lemonidas says MBIA is a good buy at $10 and sees a near future stock price from $25-$40. He also liked Boeing(BA) at $85, Lemonidas also recommended Freddie and Fannie the Friday before they essentially went to zero.
---06/30/08 Ron Rimcus of BB&T Financial recommends KBH at 17$ a share on Bloomberg. He says there is $17 on KBH's books so you are getting it for free. He sees healthy returns a "few years out".
---07/01/08 Phil Orlando on Bloomberg says the second half of the year will show positive growth and the current weakness in the market will be a good buying opportunity.
---07/03/08 US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said here on Thursday that the US economy would most likely be stronger at the end of 2008, even as oil prices surged to new records above 146 dollars."I think there is a very strong possibility that we will be growing at the end of the year. We will have stronger growth at the end of the year than we have right now," he said during a press conference after talks with his British counterpart Alistair Darling. "http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=080703120512.75gtwijc&show_article=1
---07/07/08 UBS among others came out with 1650 year-end call on the S&P500. At the time of the call the S&P was at 1245. They were calling for an 18% rally in the index in 6 months.
YouTube
- Peter Schiff & Don Luskin - CNBC - Kudlow & Company - 7/2/2007 Awesome peter schiff clip
"the IRS is ramping up hiring in a number of cities."
.....so they can "take care of all those over-zealous right-wingers" who we know caused all this AND probably had something to do with the killing of Jesus - a few grueling federal audits should convince them of the error of their ways!
"Artificial cure."
Yes, I think bulldozing is an artificial cure, because it is not a natural market force. However, it would help with the economic problem. The societal problem of homelessness is beyond the scope of this solution.
---07/29/08 Win Smith of WHS Holdings on Bloomberg says the financials are making a bottom (VFH at 39.12) and said he is starting to buy Merryl (MER 24$) after they raised 8 billion for cash they previously said they didn't need.
---08/05/08 Thomas Lee, Equity Strategist, says stocks will be higher by year's end and the S&P500 will be at about 1450 by the end of 2008. (S&P at 1289 at the time).
---08/11/08 James Chessen, American Bankers Assoc, on Bloomberg laughed at the prospect that the FDIC is facing a crisis. He pointed out that we are "no where near" the crisis on the 1990's and that the FDIC is adequately funded to handle the coming bank failures.
---08/27/08 S&P 500 at 1281 Sebastian writes:
Just looking at the chart, the closest "match" to the current numbers looks like about mid-1982...a huge rebound out of a major generational low, also coinciding with the beginning of a major new secular bull market in stocks.
But I'm sure it's different this time.
Sebastian
Sebastian | 08.27.08 - 6:14 pm |
Black Star Ranch said: ".....a lot of this reminds me of "serious" conversations with most 16-year old boys. What a hopeless venture."
That, I agree with. Sometime in the past few months the quality of discussion here also did some cliff-diving. I never minded heated debate over the facts, and in fact it was even fun at times.
But the charm of recent "discussions" is pretty thin. I wonder if this is what it was like for CR 3 years ago when everything looked great but he was calling for bad times to come?
Sebastia
As you can see, we have over 14 months of inventory, not counting shadow and holdouts.
This kills worker mobility. The game of musical chairs is over, there is no chain reaction.
The worker mobility issue is offset by the increased incentive to walk away from an underwater mortgage.
See, Bernanke is right. We do have a balanced eCONomy.
Average Joe - lol!!!
Average Joe writes:
CR, how bout a little admission that you never thought we'd get this low.
The most pessimistic have continually best most right.
Average Joe | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 10:31 am | #
I'll admit that it has gotten worse than I feared a year ago or so. I thought we would bottom out at theat just below 400 level that all the previous declines stopped at...hot knife meet butter.
The two guys I talked with both said they are making a profit. Small,but a profit.
Cobra, that's nice to hear. Sounds like that market has found viability.
BTW, my sister is underwater in a Northport condo. She's leaving the area. I keep telling her to walk, but she won't hear of it.
"How about "Sorry doesn't cut it."
They wrecked American society. The ones that still identify with them are traitors through and through. They are more loyal to the party than the Republic, and most of them American Taliban to boot.
Deal. Stand with them and be one of them. Stand aside and be an American.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins"
You said it, Comrade BR!! That was so good it needed to be run again.
Average Joe - Thanks for the memories.
"But the charm of recent "discussions" is pretty thin"
What about you? You have been wrong at least 50 times...come one man, look in the mirror first, then you can think about being critical of those of us who have been right for a long time, you have not earned anything but a badge for being Dead Wrong!
Deal. Stand with them and be one of them. Stand aside and be an American.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins
Right now I don't identify with either.
By now I wish we had a real 3rd party for an intelligent tie breaker.
--
Thanks, Average Joe, for making my point about rogue economists and rogue strategists. ROGUE ECONOMISTS HAVE BEEN, AND WOULD CONTINUE TO BE, THE CULPRITS. Please donr listen to economists about forecasting the future of the US economy and housing.
Jas
Dirk,
Look at the census bureau data. We have 20 million excess homes and a headwind of an aging population.
But the charm of recent "discussions" is pretty thin.
Sebastian | 01.29.09 - 11:38 am | #
More threads than usual have tended to go off the reservation, mostly when someone goes all partisan. Still, it passes and debate moves on to more useful territory.
Roubini is onboard the depression train now too...choo choo
Roubini reiterated his prediction that U.S. financial losses will more than triple to $3.6 trillion and said that most banks there are insolvent and should be nationalized. The International Monetary Fund said yesterday that the global economy will slow close to a halt this year, dragged down by more than $2 trillion of bad assets in the U.S.
The international bank regulatory framework must be completely overhauled if we are to avoid a near depression, Roubini said
RGE - Interviews with Bloomberg Radio and TV: Roubini Worried About Risk of a `Near Depression'
Sebastian, I think people are just getting scared. Maybe they don't know HOW to prepare for the inevitable. You'd think that would be advisable NOW (as it was also many years ago).
I keep telling her to walk, but she won't hear of it.
Outsider
Tell her she is being old fashioned and unreasonable. If this does not work assemble a word doc. w/ prominate IBs comp and bonuses over the last four years and see if this works as a reality check.
Here's a link to a Yale study .. "Rising Unemployment Causes Higher Death Rates" ... less population, less demand for housing, period.
Rising Unemployment Causes Higher Death Rates, New study by Yale Researcher Shows
BSR, I would guess some of it is the simple fact, there just isn't much left to discuss. The train has left the station, now we just sit back and watch the wreck.
Actually, no one said late stage capitalism would be fun, and the people involved are just doing what their class background and education has trained then to do, extract excess wealth out of the system that are embedded in.
The problem is systemic, and superstition based- one cannot grow indefinitely in a finite system.
Capitalism, which has been extremely resilient, especially with the evolutionary survival traits that have helped human fitness (short term gains over long range thinking, heuristic though over critical thought, etc.), but now we are bumping against resource restraints that are bringing on the system instability we are now experiencing.
It should be a wild ride to the bottom, and a very interesting transition.
crispy, this is the quote you probably remember. I'll give it to seb...for now (next month seb will have some 'splainin to do).
Sebastian writes:
yagij said: "...Inquiring minds want to know."
Well, truly inquiring minds would look it up for themselves.
In the past several recessions there's been a point where net job-loss has accelerated month over month to an extreme, then backed-off, similar to a climax "crash" in the stock market after a long downtrend. With monthly non-farm payrolls that pattern occurs at or near the end of a recession.
It happened at the end of 2008, with monthly net job-loss accelerating four months in a row to a one-month extreme of -584,000 in November, but then it backed-off to -524,000 in December.
The cumulative job-loss will continue, but the point of maximum weakness is past. That's what the drop in the interest rate risk spreads is telling us. It's also showing up in (as I mentioned) real income less transfers, which is no longer falling.
Sebastian
Sebastian | 01.14.09 - 3:09 pm |
"AND probably had something to do with the killing of Jesus"
What a classical fallacious approach to an argument. Your logical style is wanting, better go back to the shovel, ol' Ranchy.
I'll go back to crashing the grand old party.
WHAT "blue-chip names"? The bankers posing as industrialists?
Crank up the steel mills!
Force march the money-handlers to the real jobs!
Thank you anonymous.
Newbie 101
CAT 50% of business comes from overseas, CEO said if this goes through, they'll lose all overseas revenue
They are more loyal to the party than the Republic
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 11:35 am | #
That is not a trait exclusive to either party. It may be more pronounced in (R) thoguh.
Barley | 01.29.09 - 11:43 am | #
Barley, I actually say that because she is poor and will probably end up losing it anyway. Otherwise, I don't believe in shirking one's debt either.
"Here's a link to a Yale study .. "Rising Unemployment Causes Higher Death Rates" ... less population, less demand for housing, period."
Higher unemployment causes more sex due to more idle time and more children...
Velocity And The V-Shaped Recovery
Brian S. Wesbury and Robert Stein 10.21.08, 12:01 AM ET
Velocity And The V-Shaped Recovery - Forbes.com
The U.S. economy has weakened substantially in the past several weeks, and the National Bureau of Economic Research will eventually get around to declaring an official recession. Conventional wisdom believes that the current recession will be longer and deeper than any recession the U.S. has experienced since the early 1980s, continuing through 2009 and perhaps into 2010.
When the NBER picks the start date of this recession, we suspect that they will reach back to the fourth quarter of 2007, when real gross domestic product fell by a slight 0.2%. We do not agree that the U.S. was in recession then, or for that matter up through August 2008. Despite a horrible housing market, real GDP expanded at a 2.8% annual rate in Q2, while real GDP was basically flat in the third quarter.
Nonetheless, when the government releases its advance estimate of Q3 real GDP growth on Oct. 30, the report will probably show a slightly negative number, something in the -0.1% to -0.5% range. This will be based on some more-pessimistic-than-necessary estimates of data that are not yet available. When the final data comes in and GDP is revised, we expect that negative figure to move into slightly positive territory.
But in September, the economy fell off a cliff, with real GDP likely contracting at a 3% annual rate in the fourth quarter, making it the worst quarter since 1982.
Rather than being the first of several negative quarters of economic growth, we expect this will be a temporary capitulation to the credit crunch, with almost all of the economic losses postponing economic activity into what will turn out to be a healthy period of growth in the second half of 2009. To be precise, we expect real GDP to be flat in Q1-2009 but then grow at an average annual rate of 3% in the final three quarters of next year.
The reason: This sharp drop in growth is due to a temporary drop in velocity, due to a true credit crunch, with some panic thrown in for good measure. It is not a typical recession caused by fundamental, economy-changing events such as higher tax rates, tighter money, protectionism or other public policies that stifle innovation or entrepreneurship.
The failure of Lehman Brothers (nyse: LEH - news - people ), money market fund losses, widening credit spreads and a sudden tightening in bank credit--even an unwillingness of banks to lend to one other--hit hard in September. As a result, the velocity of money--the speed with which money moves through the economy--fell rapidly. The monetary equation MV=PQ helps explain what is happening. Normally, monetary velocity (V) is stable, so once money (M) is known, we can forecast nominal GDP (PQ or real growth plus inflation).
If there is a slowdown in the turnover of money--say a 5% decline--the impact on nominal GDP growth is no different than if the money supply itself shrinks by 5%.
But there is good news. After ham-handing the rescue operation for months, the cavalry has finally arrived. The Fed has injected massive amounts of liquidity, driving the federal funds rate to roughly 1%--where it traded last week.
Moreover, the Treasury Department has drawn a line in the sand. It has decided that no more banks will fail due to a lack of liquidity. We still wish the SEC would have suspended mark-to-market accounting, but instead the Treasury injected capital (by buying preferred shares) in order to stabilize the system and bring back investor confidence. This will work, but it is clearly a sub-optimal policy, involving the federal government more deeply in the private sector than is comfortable for a democracy.
Despite the downside for free markets, these actions by the Fed and Treasury will help unlock the credit markets and turn velocity upward. With velocity and the money supply both heading up, a "V" shaped recovery is likely.
While the conventional wisdom is betting on an "L" shaped economy, and the equity market is pricing in the risk of a prolonged slump in earnings, we think the odds favor a "V" shaped recovery, with only a temporary hit to earnings and a Dow Jones industrials average that recovers to 11,000 by the end of this year, with another 20% climb in 2009 all the way up to 13,250. The economy has succumbed to a panicky credit crisis, not a typical policy-induced recession. As a result, the downturn is unlikely to last long.
Brian S. Wesbury is chief economist, and Robert Stein senior economist, at First Trust Advisors in Lisle, Ill.
Maybe a lot of Americans will try "cage free living" -
Cage Free Family
(Remember these folks? Sold off all possessions to live footloose and fancy free on the great American road? written up in NY Times?)
Last night as we where cresting the Shenandoah Mountain Range where the snow was falling heavily and my voice had disappeared hours ago beneath a deep and alarmingly wet rasp, we heard a slightly disturbing crash from the back of the RV. Being inky black night there was no way to see what it was so I told myself it was the trash can falling as an image of the refrigerator door flying open crossed my mind. Alas, starving and freezing we had to give up on our slow (20 mph) descent and that is when we saw it.
The fridge door had not swung open.
It had fallen off completely... and was lying, condiment side down, in the rear hallway... mayonnaise and salsa covering the floor in a pattern that told us the exact skidding dance of the door across the floor. I have heard that a door is not a door when it is ajar, but is it still a door when it is lying on the floor?
You see, I was almost immediately distracted by the discovery that our furnace would not light and there would be no more driving for the night. It was set to be a cold, sub-freezing, see your breath night and we had little to do but begin making dinner, pull all the blankets and settle under the covers before the temperatures began their now painful descent.
This would be kinda cute if it weren't for them apparently having two little kids with them.
Do we really know who is at the heart of this onion? We can peel layer after layer, but who is the real culprit(s)?
\t Outsider | \t \t \t \t01.29.09 - 11:34 am |
I don't think there's any doubt but that historians will align Bush with this depression to at least the extent Hoover is aligned with the last depression.
You can't increase the national debt by $5 trillion, while accomplishing absolutely nothing, and fail to regulate any aspect of predatory financial activity and not be responsible for the result.
The fact that Bush also had nothing but contempt for the Constitution, the Geneva Conventions, our allies around the world and the American people just provides a little non-financial color to the diaster that his 8 years in office wreaked upon this country.
Republicans supported Bush at every turn. Now, through their master Rush Limbaugh, they hope to rewrite history. Won't work. The whole world saw what happened.
Could America survive independent of World trade?
Yes!
Once this protectionism gets rolling Russian/Asian/European alliances will solidify.
Anonymous | 01.29.09 - 11:36 am | #
No...
Bloomberg News suggesting credit freeze to blame for collapse in sales... any credence to this? I thought the credit markets were (slowly) thawing?
Anonymous(Unrated) writes:
You said it, Comrade BR!! That was so good it needed to be run again.
I didn't take the rhetoric there, that was the job of the pioneers who explained that if you spoke out for the rights of the accused you were a criminal liberal scum.
Then it was made established practice by the people who said if you disagreed with the war on terror or their vision of America as a Christian nation, you were a liberal elite enemy within of western culture.
And if the Republicans regain power, we will be right back into the thick of the liberal elite terror-lover accusations.
Might as well just keep the dial up to "hot" so everyone can enjoy the pain. Aren't the dynamics of divide and rule identity politics fun?
Higher unemployment causes more sex due to more idle time and more children...
Elvis | 01.29.09 - 11:45 am | #
Oh yeah. An unemployed guy living in squalor is a real turn on.
"Comrade Bear (tj & the bear)"
No denial there, nope.
"BTW, my sister is underwater in a Northport condo. She's leaving the area. I keep telling her to walk, but she won't hear of it."
Outsider | 01.29.09 - 11:40 am | #
Outsider,
Tell her to walk. There is so much empty already it will not make a bit of difference. Condos,if not right now,within a year will be cash only in areas of Florida. The oversupply is that great. Northport is one.
I just signed a lease on a 2/2/1 duplex at 500/month. One street south of Northport. That is where the market is...
Also,the guy I rent from has all 34+ of his duplexes rented at 500/month.
He figures rents are going to drop another 100/mo in the next couple of years. Ouch. Those are the rents from........1990,when he first built them.
Chris
That's what the drop in the interest rate risk spreads is telling us. It's also showing up in (as I mentioned) real income less transfers, which is no longer falling.
Sebastian
Anyone, inc. the FED, who points to drops in yield spreads to show improvement is a fool. FED is the first and last lender. FED stops buying, spreads exceed last Oct/Nov
"but the point of maximum weakness is past"
Claims continue to rise...
(thanks black dog)
scone,
Thanks for that PDX RE link. Very informative. I am in SW metro area...this data confirms what I see on my drives to work and about town. Massive, massive inventory. PDX never had the monster developments, but I think that flipping has been huge here.
Then there's the South Waterfront condo fiasco...massive numbers of empty units.
Kristina- "The train has left the station, now we just sit back and watch the wreck."
Yes, and as Kristina correctly points out, that's why there's not much left to discuss.
And that's why you--collectively speaking--won't be hearing much from Conjure and me.
"Oh yeah. An unemployed guy living in squalor is a real turn on.
Outsider"
You forget that everyone is drunk on moonshine. Moonshine makes people attractive.
Eastman Kodak Co. said Thursday it is cutting 3,500 to 4,500 jobs, or 14 percent to 18 percent of its work force, as it posted a fourth-quarter loss of $137 million on plunging sales of both digital and film-based photography products.
but then it backed-off to -524,000 in December
black dog
I still think the real num was 700+ but I've been wrong many times.
"Otherwise, I don't believe in shirking one's debt either."
Outsider
I'm with you on this one. But, since housing became a money game Vegas style, I have no problem leaving when the dice dont roll the right way.
I thought the credit markets were (slowly) thawing?
Jake in Milwaukee | 01.29.09 - 11:47 am | #
LOL!!
No one believes that, except the hosts on CNBC
Outsider: It's all a matter of public record. Question is: Does anyone have the will to peel the onion? I think that depends on how bad things get.
"but then it backed-off to -524,000 in December"
Then it rose to 588,000 today....
I'm torn about the whole golf thing.
On the one hand, a round of golf shouldn't cost more than 50 bucks, really ... but we can't have all these courses going under ... and what about all the recently laid off ... they'll have plenty of spare time ... and if green fees drop enough they'll be playing golf instead of looking for jobs like they told the wife ... which means I won't be able to get a t-time ...
OMFG! THE DEPRESSION'S GOING TO AFFECT ME!!!!!!!!!
You all are very welcome.
I will continue to post this to remind everyone that the experts....aren't.
It wouldn't be so bad if they were only in charge of their own money.
I don't see Wesbury, or Lee or any of these clowns anymore.
The industry is corrupt.
They are sowing the seeds of their own demise.
We have a long long long way to go.
No one believes that, except the hosts on CNBC
crispy&cole | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 11:50 am | #
CR has indicated mild improvement...
Well mp I for one would love to hear commentary from you and Conjure as events unfold. In addition love to hear more about your preparations.
Average Joe re-posted this from me:
"---05-07-08 Frequent CR poster Sebastian said (In response to the above Wesbury comment): "I don't know what model(s) he uses, but the fact of the matter is that DJIA at 15,000 by the end of the year isn't really out of line."
Yes, of course my comment looks ridiculous in hindsight.
But now look at the stock market and the economic conditions at the time I made the comment.
The stock market had been rising for several weeks, after a relatively minor, run-of-the-mill correction.
The ISM manufacturing index was 49.6, indicating fractionally negative manufacturing growth but with overall economic expansion.
Year-over-year real GDP was at 2%, low but still within a range typical of economic expansion. The unemployment rate was only 5.5%.
Based on what was known at the time, my comments weren't ridiculous at the time but were based on facts that didn't need to be rationalized or spun to be valid.
My question: Whose bearish comments today are going to look foolish 6 months, a year, or two years down the road?
Sebastia
Blackhalo(Excellent) writes:
That is not a trait exclusive to either party. It may be more pronounced in (R) though.
I think the Republicans really honed the whole confutation of the party and the state thing.
It's kinda sad because so many of them are staunch patriots who aren't aware their concept of nation has been ruthlessly hijacked by people who are much too textbook in their approach to really believe the Big Lie themselves.
Cobradriver |
You landlords properties paid for?
Awww mp, I can't think of anyone I'd rather have for the play by play than you and Conjure...
And that's why you--collectively speaking--won't be hearing much from Conjure and me.
mp
both clocks have struck midnight or high noon?
The worker mobility issue is offset by the increased incentive to walk away from an underwater mortgage.
See, Bernanke is right. We do have a balanced eCONomy.
Angry Saver.
IMO: people are walking away, but hanging around, but no new jobs to go to. I suspect people are walking away and renting, or even squatting, in another foreclosure down the street. They can't afford a moving truck. Squatting is the new homeownership.
Brian S. Wesbury is chief and Robert Stein senior at First Trust Dreamers in Lisle, Ill.
Otherwise, I don't believe in shirking one's debt either.
Outsider
you may want to think about adopting a mindset of 'system reset'
and in that system, you protect numero uno....1st
sportsfan,
No doubt Bush will go down as one of the worst presidents in history; those in Congress during his terms ought to be thrown in there, too.
That said, the foundation for everything that happened in the 2000's was laid in prior decades. The Greenspan PUT, the virtual abandonment of bank reserve requirements, the repeal of Glass-Stegal, etc. (and there are many, many others) all happened in the prior decade with both parties fingerprints all over it.
Personally, I see this as the culmination of bad policy moves over the entire past century.
From graph 2 one might deduce that new home sales produce recessions.
I am not of either party. Now what crap do you have to state?
Economist Moe Howard 3SU | 01.29.09 - 11:03 am | #
BULLSHIT. Every single post you put up is an apologia for Republicans or an attack on Democrats.
You are not worthy of your stooge handle, you pointy-headed cretin. And you were the same way under your last crappy (but more accurate) handle, Mr. after the twelvepack.
With all the talk of demolition of new unoccupied houses zero is no longer a lower bound.
mp(Excellent) writes:
And that's why you--collectively speaking--won't be hearing much from Conjure and me.
Do stay safe old man.
BFnYC
if you investigate the backgrounds of many of the pundit's that average joe listed, you'll find they are the mouthpiece's of various special interest, lobbyists and congresspeople.
About the Peter Schiff clip...
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/163844/Peter-Schiff's-Clients-Got-Hosed-This-Year-Too?tickers=%5Egspc,%5Edji
Peter Schiff's Clients Got Hosed This Year, Too
Posted Jan 26, 2009 11:43am EST by Joe Weisenthal
Peter Schiff is a Printing Money inflation dope (PMID), i.e., Feds Printing Money would cause high inflation and then lead to hyperinflation, and a guru to many PMIDs. Other gurus of these dopes include Dr Doomed Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, etc. These inflationists have been big bears, for years, on US Treasuries and the dollar and have been commodities bulls calling for hyperinflation and invoking Zimbabwe when talking about the inflation outlook for the US. The latter qualifies one as a moron with no understanding of how the US financial system, especially, the monetary policy, works and what would the world economy look like if the US were to inflate even at 20% annual rate, let alone like Zimbabwe. When you hear two words in the US context hyperinflation and Zimbabwe run. You are listening to a moron, or a charlatan. The US econo-political system would cease to exist long before very high inflation rate, let alone hyperinflation, or Zimbabwe like situation, takes place. People like Marc Faber and Peter Schiff feed into the ignorance and prejudices of PMIDs, the favorite technique of propagandists of all stripe. Printing Money is a myth sustained by propaganda of people like Faber, Rogers and Schiff.
The thing about PMIDs is that they dont admit that they were wrong about the commodities and the myth of China & India driving the demand even as the demand slacks in the US and the developed world. These dopes were most vocal and incredulous at the worst time, in July of 2008. The plain fact is that they dont know diddley about inflation and the US Treasury market because they believe in the myth of Printing Money. There is no printing of money going on, you dopes, only swap of one debt with another. If the central govt debt caused inflation Japan wouldnt have had the deflation problem in recent years. Dopes ignore evidence that doesnt suite their beliefs and find excuses like, the US is not Japan. It is true that the US is not Japan just as I am not Obama (thank God!), but the dopes miss the point that there was a lesson for the US in what went on in Japan. The US ruling elite and the policymakers are far worse and far more crooked and evil than their Japanese counterparts. American dopes can only dream of having as caring a ruling elite as the Japanese for reasons not hard to understand. Diversity is deadly, you dopes! What connection exist between Bankrupters and Fraudsters of New York City (BFNYC) and an average American in Idaho, or Mississippi?!
It is the debt, Stupid! (Implosion of private debt, especially, the household debt, is highly deflationary).
Jas
And that's why you--collectively speaking--won't be hearing much from Conjure and me.
mp | 01.29.09 - 11:49 am | #
Deeply sorry to hear that. Hopefully you two will drop in late at night when the kids are all in bed (IYKWIM).
Sebastian writes:
Yes, of course my comment looks ridiculous in hindsight.
But now look at the stock market and the economic conditions at the time I made the comment.
People on this board were - and were coming to the exact opposite conclusion that you were. I come to read the messages here as an interested bystander who likes to know what's going to happen next. The comments on this board are generally well researched and intelligent. A lot of the posters are consistently right about what will happen.
You however have been consistently wrong about absolutely everything since I started reading the comments on this board. Maybe it might be a good time for you to start reading and stop writing for a while until you gain enough knowledge to post something that might actually turn out to be correct?
I would guess some of it is the simple fact, there just isn't much left to discuss. The train has left the station, now we just sit back and watch the wreck.
\t Comrade Kristina | \t \t \tHomepage | \t01.29.09 - 11:44 am | #
So true, but in a way that's the problem. We all seem to think it can't be fixed this year, maybe not next year. The reality, though, is that we have to fix it to keep this country going in a form that bears some resemblence to the greatness it once had.
cobradriver, wtf are you? I need a house like that.
MarketWatch has what I can only HOPE is a parody article calling for a moratorium on all housing data ...
We can't say anything nice about housing, so let's say nothing MarketWatch First Take - MarketWatch
Not sure what else to add, other than to say, again, I HOPE it's a joke.
crispy&cole said: "but then it backed-off to -524,000 in December"
Then it rose to 588,000 today...."
Well, we finally get to the root of your problem: You don't know the difference between net job losses from non-farm payrolls and unemployment claims.
Now I know that I don't need to ever respond to your posts anymore because you don't know what you're talking about and aren't interested in knowing, either.
Have a nice day.
Sebastia
Well the idiot hall monitor is back. You have read all of my post? I bang on both more the liberals but both get. Keep dreaming the drugs do a body good.
"BULLSHIT. Every single post you put up is an apologia for Republicans or an attack on Democrats."
I miss the days when everyone got excited when Dr. Doom spoke. Now everyone (except the CNBC stooges) sounds like him.
Avg Joe: I think we've hit "peak pundit". Whaadaya think?
Sebastian said: "Based on what was known at the time, my comments weren't ridiculous at the time but were based on facts that didn't need to be rationalized or spun to be valid."
Well...I knew they were rediculous...proven by the fact that I SAVED the comments!!!! AND ALL THE OTHER LUDICROUS COMMENTS ABOVE...
This recession was the easiest call in the history of finance and I put my entire net worth on the line (went to cash). And I am no financial "expert".
You weren't using FACTS, you were using hope, spin, or self dillusion.
Get a grip on your own prejudices.
Six months from now will look worse than today.
Save that comment!
Rob Dawg writes:
Problem with stupid people is they are too stupid to know it.
Fuck All Conservative Republic | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 11:12 am | #
Explanation and example all in one. I admire your brevity sir.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 11:13 am
And with that single play, the score is Rob Dawg - 100, supid person - 0
LOL
Funny Krugman:
Bad
As the Obama administration apparently prepares to launch Hankie Pankie II buying troubled assets from banks at prices higher than they will fetch on the open market it occurred to me that an updated versionof an old Communist-era joke may be appropriate: under Bush, financial policy consisted of Wall Street types cutting sweet deals, at taxpayer expense, for Wall Street types. Under Obama, its precisely the reverse.
sportsfan, I just don't see it being in our hands. FRom what I'm watching of the Stimulus package it's going to be a disaster. Poor Obama, he thought he could somehow get the derilicts in Congress to do something useful. Instead, they quibble and bicker about BS instead of putting together a sane, workable stimulus.
"You landlords properties paid for?
Economist Moe Howard 3SU | 01.29.09 - 11:52 am | #"
EMHSU,
He was covered in paint spatter the day I signed the lease. Crusty old fucker. His exact words..."I just saved myself 1K painting my one empty". I think his Explorer is in worse shape than my POS Neon. When I asked if owned outright he just smiled.
His mailing adress is a place on the Peace River bought 15+ years ago...
Chris
Bubblisimo Gerkinov,
LOL. In Texas there have been a lot of golf course communities built in this boom. They all tried to go for the upscale market and charge $50-$150 for a round. They are going to be hurting. My favorite place to play for the last few years charges $18 for a round in the afternoon, and the greens are decent. Recently, a website, Golf 512, has popped up. Courses around Austin post tee times they want filled at a discount. The competition will probably get fierce as this goes on.
My question: Whose bearish comments today are going to look foolish 6 months, a year, or two years down the road?
Sebastian
Sebastian | 01.29.09 - 11:51 am | #
How about extend the time scale out to infinity so we can all look like fools and you won't be so alone
Your comments were foolish at the time and only moreso now. The rational of how things have played out was mentioned early and often, I even called the Q and the year it would fall apart well in advance.
Market bottom late summer 09, Housing bottom October 09, GDP bottom Q3 09, don't leave recession til April 10, anemic "recovery" until 2012 at least.
I miss the days when everyone got excited when Dr. Doom spoke. Now everyone (except the CNBC stooges) sounds like him.
chief optomist
all most at peak despondancy...but the final leg down might be a biggie
I think the Republicans really honed the whole confutation of the party and the state thing.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 11:52 am | #
You definitely have that right.
The thing that scared me so much about BushCo was the abrogation of all our rights. "Patriot Act"? Could be the worst piece of legislation ever, and Dems voted for that, too. When will Obama correct that???
The economy didn't scare me, because it's fate was predetermined; he just accelerated the endgame.
Hey, Denial and the bear
"That said, the foundation for everything that happened in the 2000's was laid in prior decades. The Greenspan PUT, the virtual abandonment of bank reserve requirements, the repeal of Glass-Stegal, etc. (and there are many, many others) all happened in the prior decade with both parties fingerprints all over it."
Uh, Greenspan is a Republican, Rubin-Clinton aside, only Republicans supported Gramm-Leach Bliley
GovTrack: Senate
Vote On Passage:
S. 900 [106th]: Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act
Still thinks it's both parties?
Of course you do, you voted Republican. Oops.
conjure/mp don't stop now
i'am not a specialist but if you ask
we are fuelling a debt deflation
do you agree jas jain ?
He was covered in paint spatter the day I signed the lease. Crusty old fucker. His exact words..."I just saved myself 1K painting my one empty". I think his Explorer is in worse shape than my POS Neon. When I asked if owned outright he just smiled.
I would like to see his other car. Sounds about like me. He gets it.
Grrr Gramm Leach....I would dearly love to see Phil and Wendy with matching Hemp necklaces...
Jas,
You don't need to convince me...I have been more Mish and less Schiff from day one (which is why I went cash and stayed there).
But the clip is still awesome.
MrPeregrination said: "...Maybe it might be a good time for you to start reading and stop writing for a while until you gain enough knowledge to post something that might actually turn out to be correct?"
You mean like when I recently said that I thought the unemployment rate would continue to rise and total net job-losses would, too?
Sebastia
Personal golf anecdotal...used to play fairly regularly(public courses; no country clubs). Golf went through the Tiger boom, but built courses that are too hard for the average player. Guys that play once a week, maybe hit a bucket of balls once a week, can't make a decent score on all the courses that were designed for low handicappers. That's a big turnoff.
A lot of people tried golf, found how difficult it is relative to other rec activities and got turned off quickly, IMO. Plus ridiculous green fees. The courses were funded based on high green fee and high usage cash flow...when that doesn't show up they go BK. Some have, a lot more will.
Jake in M. - wow!
"A moratorium on housing news won't cure any of the economic ills we face. But it might restore at least a little balance in the home-sale markets, easing the skittishness of potential buyers"
Next - no jobs report, no unemployment report, confidence indexes, trade or balance of payments...
U.S. electronics retailer Best Buy Co could take advantage of bankruptcies in the sector by snapping up vacant store locations....
On the subject of the U.S. economy, Anderson [CEO] said he thought "we are probably close to a bottom.
Economist Moe Howard 3SU writes:
Looks like someone left the computer room unlocked at the mental hospital again.
Economist Moe Howard 3SU | 01.29.09 - 11:32 am
Too funny! But there's a lot of truth in that statement.
Next - no jobs report, no unemployment report, confidence indexes, trade or balance of payments...
Barley | 01.29.09 - 12:04 pm | #
I know.
I hope for MarketWatch's sake that someone wrote this up as some sort of comic relief from all this. Though it IS the WSJ... rolls eyes
"You mean like when I recently said that I thought the unemployment rate would continue to rise and total net job-losses would, too?"
Who disagreed with you?
mp writes:
And that's why you--collectively speaking--won't be hearing much from Conjure and me.
Come by from time to time and tell us how you are preparing and what steps the mp organization has taken after defcon 1.
Still thinks it's both parties?
Anonymous | 01.29.09 - 12:01 pm | #
Without question. Oh, and "The Maestro" was a popular man with the White House in the 90's.
"cobradriver, wtf are you? I need a house like that."
beer_motor | 01.29.09 - 11:57 am | #
Port Charlotte,FL. Our area is interesting due to all the rebuilding after Charlie. Everybody needed a place to live so it really juiced the area. Now all the construction people are gone. Oooooops.
Just search the MLS in a 10 mile radius of Northport/Port Charlotte/Fort Myers,any of these, and check out what pops up...
And it will get even cheaper...
Chris
--
Sebastian is a perfect example of what is wrong with Americans when it comes to economy, investments and politics. I have known this character before he came to this blog and there is ZERO improvement in his ability to understand the economy. I am sure that Sebastian is a good and well-meaning man, but lifetime of propaganda, i.e., doping, takes its toll on people.
Doping is Job #1 for Americas ruling elite.
Jas
mp, didn't you say Conjure was going to publish another paper?
cobra lives in the everglades
your ac bill and electirc sump pump
will bleed you dry.
I am not of either party. Now what crap do you have to state?
Economist Moe Howard 3SU | 01.29.09 - 11:03 am | #
I'm going to have to call bullshit too. I marked you (irritating) because of your partisan polemic. If you truly believe you're not of either party, then you're either delusional or highly divided and ashamed.
".....Personally, I see this as the culmination of bad policy moves over the entire past century." - Comrade Bear (tj & the bear)
.....how right you are.
Gary.....you ought to try a little.....what do you "over-zealous left-wingers call it; "tolerance"? ....LOL
20-million unemployed by July and "Adult Day Care license applications are on the increase. Many more elderly are hanging out on-line instead of at the entrance to neighborhood stores, parks, and other community businesses......"
Someone asked:
Ok, I admit it- I am the one at the center of the onion.
I would guess some of it is the simple fact, there just isn't much left to discuss. The train has left the station, now we just sit back and watch the wreck.
\t Comrade Kristina | \t \t \tHomepage | \t01.29.09 - 11:44 am | #
So true, but in a way that's the problem. We all seem to think it can't be fixed this year, maybe not next year. The reality, though, is that we have to fix it to keep this country going in a form that bears some resemblence to the greatness it once had.
Phooey. Haloscan ate my comment. I was pointing out that Anonymous said
Somebody hit CTRL-ALT-DEL in Sept./Oct. and we're in the process of a hard reboot.
Which means the global financial system runs on Windows. Well, there's your problem! I move that we downgrade our Vista depression to an XP recession before it is too late.
I am glad we are all prescient regarding the market, housing, and the price of gold. Some of use will get a Nobel just from blog commentary.
Personally, I see this as the culmination of bad policy moves over the entire past century.
\t Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) | \t \t \t \t01.29.09 - 11:54 am
I see it starting around 1985. Some might say this is the natural result of Reaganomics.
It is the debt, Stupid! (Implosion of private debt, especially, the household debt, is highly deflationary).
Jas Jain | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 11:56 am | #
Calling Schiff a failure when the reaction to a deflationary environment is just getting started seems prematrure. He had no idea that Paulson and co. would waste so much time trying to save his masters at GS, rather than addressing the issues at hand.
The era of the deflationary environment days are numbered.
MESSAGE FOR CONJURE
Please take care of mp. We need him around to post during this troubled period. There are fans out there who appreciate his and your opinions about this mess we are going thru.
Thanks for all the good work over the last 2+ years.
Anonymous writes:
By Anthony Faiola
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, January 29, 2009; Page A01
The stimulus bill passed by the House last night contains a controversial provision that would mostly bar foreign steel and iron from the infrastructure projects laid out by the $819 billion economic package.
Should have read "passed by the demoKrats in the House". Looks like the obamacons are going for a trade war.
Honestly, The homes number surprises me that it's that high. The problem with so many new structures are the HOAs and Mello Roos. So if an existing home becomes a viable purchase at 80/2ft, then the new homes need to be 65 to 70/2ft.
Someone wake me when an average Jane with solid finacing can buy a house at a price where she has a hell's chance of paying off in her lifetime.
That will be news
"Some might say this is the natural result of Reaganomics."
....this is said by people who are just younger and more "naive" is all (was that a nice way to put it or what?)
Average Joe said: "...This recession was the easiest call in the history of finance and I put my entire net worth on the line (went to cash). And I am no financial "expert"."
No, if it was the easiest call in history and you had put your entire net worth on the line you would have been short.
Clearly, it wasn't the easiest call in history which is why you didn't actually have the confidence you claim you do now.
Many things that are abundantly clear in hindsight are awfully murky in real-time.
All I ask is to be judged based on what could be known at the time and not by things that could only have been truly known after the fact.
Sebastia