Washington DC will have the best economy in the country.
âWe have a financial system that is run by private shareholders, managed by private institutions, and we'd like to do our best to preserve that system."Tim Geithner
When I first heard about TARP, the blatant transfer of $700 billion of taxpayer money to the perpetrators of fraud, I first thought it was erroneous reporting. When I saw the 3-pager and that "decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency", I was amazed that Paulson had the gall/stupidity to propose it. I thought Paulson would be laughed off. I was even more amazed when the Congress rolled over and approved it with some cosmetic changes. Now when I hear Son of TARP (bad bank), my reaction is of course the fraudsters will win again.
Have we ever had a recession where each and every state showed a decline in economic activity? "Worst since 1982" or "Worst since the Great Depression" doesn't really seem to be cutting it, anymore.
Don't worry...I have it on good authority it will all be over and we'll be better by June. Second half rally. Steve Leisman says so. So does Don Luskin. So does Ken Fisher. ....
I for one am going to buy houses in Phoenix, and flip them for an easy profit...how hard can it be?
Somebody said it yesterday, how long until it starts happening here on a larger scale? Kidnapping for Profit. I think Mr. Thain over there in the corner is volunteering for the pilot program.
The second graph is of the monthly Philly Fed data of the number of states with one month increasing activity. For the first time ever, the Philly Fed index showed no states with increasing activity.
Have we ever had a recession where each and every state showed a decline in economic activity? "Worst since 1982" or "Worst since the Great Depression" doesn't really seem to be cutting it, anymore.
I think Taleb Nassim said "Worst since the American Revolution".
Jake - did you listen to Doyle's SotS address last night?
"Because of this situation, Wisconsin is facing a budget gap that had been estimated at $5.4 billion, or 17 percent of our biennial budget. That figure, unfortunately, is going to grow with the latest data."
The economic depression will only be surpassed by the emotional depression when the born and bred dopes realize what they let happen; when, starting with Reagan, they voted themselves short term wealth from the public trust and turned a blind eye to what the crooks did with the rest.
Must admit I really am not too enamoured by Doyle... I think he needs to go bigger, bolder. The last thing he should be doing is cutting budgets. Float a bond, for crissakes, this boat's sinking. I agree with you that we're not CA. Though, they're issuing IOU's. Even Zimbabwe is printing money.
I think I figured out why CR is so addictive for me. It's my "Jerry Springer", the only place I can find people more depressing than I am. With Springer it was the only place dysfunctional trailer trash could watch people more dysfunctional than they were.
ades - the better news to come out of it is that we can now power our cars on cheese!
Let me recognize another innovator who did more with what he had, who saw more than just a cheese processing plant at the crossroads of a small central Wisconsin town. This is someone who took the leftover ingredients of cheesemaking whey permeate and found a way to turn it into a renewable fuel. He then set up a local distribution network for his cheese-based ethanol. I am proud to introduce Joe Van Groll.
You know, in other places, they just eat cheese. But here we wear it on our heads when we watch football and now, thanks to Joe, Wisconsin is the state where we can even use it to drive our cars.
Now, if only the Governator can figure out a way to fuel cars with Option-ARM mortgages, you guys'll be golden.
What % of US economic activity do ND and WY represent? My guess would be somewhere around 0.1%. The combined populations of those states are equal to what, the population of Yonkers NY?
In all seriousness, this partially validates the Flyover America being buffered theory. I don't believe it but the data says as much. I would point out that Louisiana is down so far they've got nothing but up. Also Texahoma is still burning off its $147 oil euphoria.
Massachusetts is somewhat of an outlier. Personally I think it is a reporting artifact as the historical gap twixt R.I. & MA rates persists at high levels.
I do like the last graph of States with increases 0-50. It is like the Electoral College in being definitive.
Now, if only the Governator can figure out a way to fuel cars with Option-ARM mortgages, you guys'll be golden. Shnaps | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 12:54 pm | #
I think I figured out why CR is so addictive for me. It's my "Jerry Springer", the only place I can find people more depressing than I am. With Springer it was the only place dysfunctional trailer trash could watch people more dysfunctional than they were.
I always think of CR as kind of a site for "white collar trailer trash".
worst-case, treasuries keep tanking, the candy store in congress gets a little tight just as trillion dollar bills from the FDIC and PBGC come due, meaning bailing out corporate paper is not quite as likely
Sitting with the Thinker trying to work it out It's a traffic jam of the brain makes you wanna scream and shout Presidential party no one wants to dance Looking for a new star to put you in a trance
Lets go all the way Lets go all the way Yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah Lets go all the way
Working in a factory eight days a week Try to make dollar damn what a beat Cartoon capers happen in reality Rich man poor man living in fantasy
Lets go all the way Lets go all the way Ah ah ah lets go all the way (Wow, fuck yeah) Yeah yeah yeah
Livin' in New York looks like an apple core (apple core) Asphalt Jungle got to be a man of war California dreamers sleeping in the sand The Hollywood Squares are living in Disney Land (weeeehaaaa)
Lets go all the way (Lets go all the way) Lets go all the way (Lets go ah ah ah) Lets go all the way - Lets go all the way Lets go all the way We need heaven on earth today (ah ah ah) We can make a better way Lets go all the way Go all the way Yeah, lets go all the way Yeah - na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na yeah
Well one scenario is a spike in dollar value goes with large scale selling of any kind of dollar denominated asset...like say, Treasury debt. Then you have a sweaty wad of dollars you need to move into to something else, pronto...like say, some PM?
The economic depression will only be surpassed by the emotional depression when the born and bred dopes realize what they let happen; when, starting with Reagan, they voted themselves short term wealth from the public trust and turned a blind eye to what the crooks did with the rest.
I really think it started with Nixon when we abandoned the gold standard. Whatever you think of the gold standard, the only reason I can think of for getting rid of it once you're on it is to start spending more than you make as a nation.
It's like a statement of intent to become insolvent.
The deficit spending of the 80s certainly started the realization of this insolvency in earnest.
I think I figured out why CR is so addictive for me. It's my "Jerry Springer", the only place I can find people more depressing than I am. With Springer it was the only place dysfunctional trailer trash could watch people more dysfunctional than they were. Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 12:54 pm | #
Wow, what a lucky move!
I'm sure they didn't know----
JPMorgan Chase says that its potential losses related to Bernard L. Madoff, the man accused of engineering an immense global Ponzi scheme, are pretty close to zero. But what some angry European investors want to know is when the bank cut its exposure to Mr. Madoff and why.
JPMorgan Chases headquarters in Manhattan. A spokeswoman said the bank became concerned about the lack of transparency as it reviewed its investments linked to Bernard Madoff.
As early as 2006, the bank had started offering investors a way to leverage their bets on the future performance of two hedge funds that invested with Mr. Madoff. To protect itself from the resulting risk, the bank put $250 million of its own money into those funds.
But the bank suddenly began pulling its millions out of those funds in early autumn, months before Mr. Madoff was arrested, according to accounts from Europe and New York that were subsequently confirmed by the bank. The bank did not notify investors of its move, and several of them are furious that it protected itself but left them holding notes that the bank itself now says are probably worthless.
scone writes: Louisiana still in post-Katrina spending mode? scone | 01.29.09 - 12:37 pm | #
Port traffic? Good point, though... Jake in Milwaukee | 01.29.09 - 12:37 pm | #
And it takes a while to wind down energy infrastructure projects... you don't just turn on and turn off petrochem and when oil was $140/bbl [seemed like a lifetime ago]... they launched a lot of programs. In LA, TX, WY & AK. Give a few quarters of $40/bbl and those will wrap up and then we'll see how well they are doing.
Somebody said it yesterday, how long until it starts happening here on a larger scale? Kidnapping for Profit. I think Mr. Thain over there in the corner is volunteering for the pilot program. Builder Bob | 01.29.09 - 12:36 pm | #
This has been a safe country to be rich in -- you could show off your wealth and nobody would snatch you. Unlike in the third world, or even (especially) Europe.
That may well change as people realize that the rich are different: they largely made their money by inheriting it or manipulating financial markets (aka chicanery).
When we lose the American myth that we are a classless society with a level playing field, the super-rich rich lose much of their societal protection. I could see kidnapping tycoons becoming like robbing banks in the '30s -- against the law, but on some level admired.
I was downtown last night just as a luxury private bus pulled up -- the kind built on a big-rig tractor platform, fancy as hell. People in hyper-expensive evening clothing and jewelry piled out, laughing and giggling and smelling of alcohol. Plowed right into the line of passing pedestrians without looking. They looked like they were from Mars compared to everybody else.
"I really think it started with Nixon when we abandoned the gold standard."
the abandonment of silver in the coinage was really the start of that chapter, BW dumping was only the conclusion. one of many ways in which JFK was one of our worst presidents ever relative to the time he had to do damage.
of course, the illegal war in SE asia, 'great society' and the buildout of colleges for boomer capacity was also a big factor.
Time to clear a little land folks and prepare to start gardening this spring. We are getting close to the time when you're going to have to grow your own food, but only if you want to eat better than what the government hands out to you (rice, beans, bulk butter and powered milk).
one of many ways in which JFK was one of our worst presidents ever relative to the time he had to do damage. bgates | 01.29.09 - 1:04 pm | #
??? Silver was removed from coinage in 1965 when the market price exceeded $1.29/oz. LBJ was President. What did Kennedy do that caused silver to be removed?
According to 50states.com, ND and WY have ~1.1 million population between them...if we use US population estimate of 303 million, then we round to ~0.4% on a per capita basis.
GDP is not evenly distributed, if we cut that in half or so due to economic activity being concentrated in large cities, we end up at 0.2% - so a SWAG of 0.1% is in the ballpark.
http://www.slate.com/id/2209893/
SLATE
I See Dead Bankers!
Wall Street has become The Sixth Sensefilled with corpses who think they're still alive.
By Daniel Gross
Decreased worker mobility is kinda moot-- there is nowhere to go, no safe haven. The whole planet is going radioactive. It's a Dalek plot.
scone | 01.29.09 - 12:52 pm | #
Comrade Kristina writes:
I think I figured out why CR is so addictive for me. It's my "Jerry Springer", the only place I can find people more depressing than I am.
LOL! come to think of it, I think maybe CR alone is to blame for lost productivity on a wide scale in this country... Gotta. Kick. This. Habit.
"You are walking with your head high," I remarked. "I'm walking with my head still on," he replied. "That's the good news." The bad news? When I asked him for his estimate of how long the hard times will last, he told me: "Don't hold your breath. And don't buy new clothes."
tap..tap...tap..is this thing working?
imagonna try it again
"Not much left to discuss."...
On the contrary, a whole new way of thinking and acting is emerging. The train is picking up speed and will be shunted into unfamiliar canyons.
an example scenario:
Globalisation is at the tipping point. Free stimulus money creation has reached its limit. As American dollars slosh back to its shores, as labour unrest turns to violence, the barriers to trade will slam into place. Reciprocal measures then soon guarantee a currency crisis and bond wars with new alliances.
The inevitable solution will lead to a new American currency limited to internal trade to stimulate national industries. Old dollars will be massively devalued.
Of course, instead of considering these possibilities, which would take more that 3 words to discuss, you can just drag out worn out jibes of "tin foil hats" and keep on sniffing for the inevitable daily bottom.
The big upstream projects are the same way, once you start cutting steel a series of contracts for the life of the project buildout have been committed too - running several years and often in the billions.
Did you notice how red NH looks? Red. Very red.
Outsider
.
Yep. NH = OR. But house prices here are way worse. I could cash out there, with land, if I could sell here.
They looked like they were from Mars compared to everybody else. Bob Dobbs . Maybe they are. Cue scary sci-fi music. \t scone | \t \t \t \t01.29.09 - 1:06 pm | # You ever see John Carpenter's pulp paranoia opus, "They Live"? Alien corporate scum taking over the planet while masquerading as human yuppies? Like that.
I'm not sure if this was posted earlier, but the US Treasury is going to backstop the entire student loan market using a QSPE vehicle created by MS and C.
which begs the question of why even bothering with the private intermediaries?
I think I figured out why CR is so addictive for me. It's my "Jerry Springer", the only place I can find people more depressing than I am. Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 12:54 pm | #
Yeah, yeah. It is ALL fun and games, until someone throws a chair.
When we lose the American myth that we are a classless society with a level playing field, the super-rich rich lose much of their societal protection. Bob Dobbs | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 1:04 pm | #
Airbus has dropped out of the Air Force One competition because in the current political environment their likely win would do more harm than good. Their stated reason is so that they can focus on re-winning the tanker program that they've won three time so far.
Gee, My State is same color of Cali.
We have had same economy for past five years, in the tank, being bailed out by The White Haired Old Man in the Senate with good Republican Hands that carried the Water for The Party.
Turn about is fair play. Who would you vote for if it was a choice of McC or Palin? You have to pick one. Economist Moe Howard 3SU | 01.29.09 - 1:06 pm | #
McCain of course. Particularly McCain 2000. Palin eptomizes everything that is wrong with the Republican party. All talk, no walk. McCain being painted as a "rebel" or "maverick" is absured. He has remained, old school, Rebublician for decades and it is only the asinine direction the party took in 1980 that he has rebelled against. He and HW were "real" Republicans. Not the RINOs we have today.
More than a million public sector workers in France staged a massive strike on Thursday to protest President Nicolas Sarkozy's handling of the economic crisis,
"Washington DC will have the best economy in the country."
That was true throughout the Bush administration.
One of those interesting oddball statistics. The four fastest growing (economically) counties in the US.
During the Bush administration they were Washington DC, Baltimore Maryland, and two other counties bordering DC.
During the Clinton administration they were King County Washington (Microsoft, Amazon, etc), San Mateo (Silicon Valley), and a couple others not near DC I can't remember (though I think at least one of them was another silicon Valley county).
I am kind of bored of all this recession stuff. I thought it might be kind of interesting and exciting at first, but its really a major let down. A few people unemployed here, a few there. A factory/store/company closes here and there. Drip, drip, drip. Every day is so similar to the previous day. I know some exciting things could still happen - a bond collapse or a currency war. But its just all taking way too long... This is totally like the part of the movie I would fast forward through.
Can we just quickly move on to the part where the major recovery of the economy begins?
Not condoning Putin or his policies but he has some good points.
Excessive dependence on a single reserve currency is dangerous for the global economy. The time for enlightenment has come, he went on. We must calmly, and without gloating, assess the root causes of this situation and try to peek into the future.
This article was written 2.5 yrs ago and since then we have seen all the financial malfeasance from Wall St, The Fed, The Treasury and the Bush admin.
There is a rising tide of opposition around the world to Americas unilateral assertion of its national interests. But few realize that for the United States to become a more responsible country, the world economy needs to move from the current U.S. dollar standard to a global currency.
U.S. dominance rests not only on military superiority and on the size and productivity of its economy, but also on the fact that most international transactions are denominated in U.S. dollars and more than 60 percent of world foreign exchange reserves are held in U.S.-denominated assets, like U.S. Treasury bills.
The problem for the rest of the world is that the U.S. dollar standard encourages the United States to be careless in its monetary and fiscal policies.
Most of the states that are relatively better off-pink to green are energy producing state- specifically gas and oil. Another 6 months of sub $50 dollar oil, and they will be in the deep red, too.
"DCRogers writes:
Damn correlations keep screwing up my models! Ran my Monte Carlo simulation millions of times and never saw this coming..."
In a crisis, all correlations go to zero, one, or negative one. Some of the reasons for zero are really annoying, like no more trading, or no more reliable data on at least one of the items you are comparing.
After this masterduck clusterfuck depression USA will rise again with superior quality, real "untouchable" statesmen and women, right? Right? Hello...does this thing work...
believe it or not, it isn't as simple as a sitting president making a phone call to the mint the days before the coins roll of the machine. bgates | 01.29.09 - 1:12 pm | #
Yes, I understand the process. Kennedy's administration may have had something to do with the planning for clad coinage, but I've never heard anyone suggest that before now. My memory, as a young teenager in 1964 was that the Mint was experimenting with substitute metals for blanks due to coinage beginning to be extracted from the system. By then of course Kennedy was gone.
BTW, all 1964 coinage is 90% silver. The 'lessening' you mentioned was only in the 1965-69 half dollars, which dropped to 40% along with the 1970 version that was never released into circulation.
REBear writes:
More than a million public sector workers in France staged a massive strike on Thursday to protest President Nicolas Sarkozy's handling of the economic crisis
and this coming from workers who IIFC get 7 weeks paid vacation, free healthcare, paid retirement.
Comrade Janosik writes:
The economic depression will only be surpassed by the emotional depression when the born and bred dopes realize what they let happen; when, starting with Reagan, they voted themselves short term wealth from the public trust and turned a blind eye to what the crooks did with the rest.
Comrade Janosik | 01.29.09 - 12:52 pm |
Bob Dobbs writes:
They looked like they were from Mars compared to everybody else.
Bob Dobbs
.
Maybe they are. Cue scary sci-fi music.
scone | 01.29.09 - 1:06 pm | #
You ever see John Carpenter's pulp paranoia opus, "They Live"? Alien corporate scum taking over the planet while masquerading as human yuppies? Like that.
Bob Dobbs
.
I can't watch Carpenter without Depends.
If notes/bonds continue to drop in price there will be a lot of unhappy companies that were "well-capitalized" because their USG bond positions had risen in value while their MBS positions had been destroyed.
If notes/bonds continue to drop in price there will be a lot of unhappy companies that were "well-capitalized" because their USG bond positions had risen in value while their MBS positions had been destroyed.
November and December in reverse. Think insurance companies?
peAk writes: If it's a Japanese zero it leads to an 18 year bottom.
In other words, this bottom may be the abyssal plane, a long vast expanse of flatness until we reach the great drop off the continental shelf and eventually the great rift where molten things bubble to the surface.
McCain of course. Particularly McCain 2000. Palin eptomizes everything that is wrong with the Republican party. All talk, no walk. McCain being painted as a "rebel" or "maverick" is absured. He has remained, old school, Rebublician for decades and it is only the asinine direction the party took in 1980 that he has rebelled against. He and HW were "real" Republicans. Not the RINOs we have today.
Blackhalo | 01.29.09 - 1:21 pm |
There are things I like about MC C but he is far from my ideal guy. Both Palin and McC where better of the choices. I truly did not like any of the candidates the had to much baggage or inexperience. Not one hit me with that's my guy. This is the reason I am a drift and not a real Republican any more. I dare say if I stated I liked Reagan the board would go nuts. He changed me from conservative liberal, when I was a Californian and he was Gov. Both parties do not represent what they did when I was a kid growing up. Thanks for the reply.
jefff writes:
"which begs the question of why even bothering with the private intermediaries?"
Because bankers can take their cut then make campaign contributions.
The private student loan program is a boondoggle. Does the same thing the government does for more money with more corruption less reliably.
jefff | 01.29.09 - 1:24 pm | #
yes and its nice to know that while others suffer wall street-ers still get "their" bonus, even if said bonus is paid by the pawns
First there was the War to End All Wars. After the second one they renamed the first one. In the same way, first there was the Great Depression. Now they are going to have to rename it Great Depression I. This one will be called Great Depression II.
"Despite crippling losses, multibillion-dollar bailouts and the passing of some of the most prominent names in the business, employees at financial companies in New York, the now-diminished world capital of capital, collected an estimated $18.4 billion in bonuses for the year.
That was the sixth-largest haul on record, according to a report released Wednesday by the New York State comptroller....
"Honorable pilots of the Kamikaze Air Force,
Today you will fly high into the sky,
Seek out the Yankee aircraft carrier,
Come down,
Very fast,
And crash into the deck, killing yourself,
And all aboard.
Now before we proceed with the ceremonial sake toast, are there any questions?"
YES. I was partially hedged, delta of 0.3-0.5, when long bond futures hit 135 (they peaked just below 142). Right now my hedge is close to neutral. I am short a ton of Jun 142 Calls and 115 Puts (strangle). I have made very good money on these as I lost in my long STRIPS. I have been net long for years and plan to remain net long at least until 2010 and likely up to 2012.
Some of us do understand the economy and investments based on the current economy. The problem with born-and-bred American dopes is that they dont admit when they have been proven wrong about their economic outlook, especially, the inflation outlook. DEFLATIONARY DEPRESSION DEAD AHEAD!
Long gold and Treasuries and short the Scam Market (temporarily out of Swiss since 100 last year),
This makes me draw the inescapable solution: "we need more states". \t Gavshire Hathaway | \t \t \t \t01.29.09 - 1:34 pm | # Time to dust off Manifest Destiny again? Oh wait, we've been doing that lately; didn't work out so well.
But its just all taking way too long... Bonanza | 01.29.09 - 1:21 pm | #
Japanise water torture? That is what happens when you try to stop the crash. You end up just prolonging the misery. Far better to reach bottom as quickly as possible, and THEN stimulate the economy.
There are a buch of zombie banks, autos and unions that need to clear out before any real revovery can take place.
Fuck USA, bunch of pessimistic weenies anyway Meanwhile in Sweden, Konjunkturinstitutet issued the Swedish economic activity index for December, it rose from November 69.6 to 71.7 (Normal is 100+-10)! That is like rising from dirty fubar to shaved and showered fubar!
"I wonder if it's a symptom of not wanting your own history to be remembered."
naw, just a somewhat stupid form of optimism.
Irvine, CA is probably the best place in the country to experience this mindset. It really is a kind of Jerusalem of American culture.
still, it might be better than having an identity based on endless centuries of grievances against moravians, bohemians, austrians, magyars, germans, russians, poles, yanks, etc etc
I'm away for a morning and come back to find loads of distressing news. Can't I trust you guys for even a few hours? [irony].
Every day seems worse than the day before. Where is this all headed?
Kamikaze. I think the Japanese term was 'sho'. Is that correct? The Japanese realized that they were outmatched in every sphere of operations. An admiral, can't recall his name, convinced the Imperial General Staff, though it was extremely reluctant, to authorize suicide missions against the US fleet off the Philippines, as a last resort. The Imperial Navy was to be sacrificed, since it was doomed at any rate.
sure thing, supa, just keep listening to those classic 80s american tunes - something about the sunny sentiments of that reagan-era dreck really appeals, doesn't it?
It doesn't need to be nearly as deep or prolonged as the Great Depression to cause massive societal upheaval. We've grown fat and lazy over the decades, and I suspect it will soon become apparent that things don't always get better. In fact, they can get much, much worse.
WASHINGTON (AP) - A small but growing number of community banks are backing out of the governments bailout, which they see as fraught with hidden strings and government interference. ¶
\tAbout 20 banks so far that applied for or had been approved to receive about $1 billion combined in taxpayer money have reversed course in the past month and refused to take the money. Thats just a fraction of the hundreds of billions of dollars the government already has spent, but it shows that taxpayers arent the only ones anxious about the financial bailout. ¶
\tThe governments going to own a good portion of these banks, said David Heintzman, president of Stock Yards Bank & Trust in Louisville, Ky. The bank recently turned down $43 million in approved bailout money. ¶
\tAfter Congress approved the $700 billion bailout in October, the government gave banks only a few weeks to decide whether they wanted to take part in the government investment program. Many applied to get a foot in the door, in case predictions of an economic collapse came true. ¶
\tWe drank the Kool-Aid, said Michael Ross, president of Fidelity Bank in Dearborn, Mich., which applied for about $29 million in November. ¶
\tBut as details emerged, the deal didnt look so good. For Fidelity, taking the money would mean the government would have owned about 25 percent of the companys outstanding stock. Then Congress and the White House could start calling the shots, Ross said. He remembers the governments failure overseeing Freddie Mac and its sister company, Fannie Mae, the two housing companies so badly mismanaged they were taken over by the Bush administration. ¶
\tThese are the guys who brought you Hurricane Katrina. These are the guys who were supposed to be watching Fannie and Freddie, Ross said. Ive not seen anything like this, where they really are talking about nationalizing banks. ¶
\tMuch of the criticism about the bailout has focused on the lack of oversight, which allowed banks to take money and refuse to say where its going. Wall Street executives, who make millions of dollars and enjoy lavish perks like private jets, earned the ire of consumer watchdogs who said taxpayers were getting a raw deal. ¶
\tBut some community banks, which had little or nothing to do with the subprime mortgage crisis, say the deal didnt look great for them, either. ¶
\tCongress wants banks to make loans, so businesses can expand and people can start buying houses again. But lawmakers also want them to make only trustworthy loans. But there are only so many good loans to make in a weak economy with high unemployment. ¶
\tExplaining that to investors is easy. To politicians, it might looks like youre hoarding taxpayer money. ¶
\tThen what? Then they have a guy at our board meeting? said William Campbell, president of Pamrapo Savings Bank, a Bayonne, N.J., bank that walked away from its $11 million bailout application. ¶
\tThe government also can force banks to cut dividends to shareholders, making a banks stock less attractive to investors. President Barack Obama has said he wants to prohibit banks from buying other banks. And at any time, Congress can change the law and add new terms. ¶
\tAre you going to enter into a contract that will cost you millions of dollars if you cant live with the rules and you dont even know what the rules are? said Steve Buster, CEO of Richmond, Calif.-based Mechanics Bank, which refused $60 million in bailout money. I dont know of any other forum that parties can change the contract at will. This is not fair. ¶
\tThe banks that turned down the money said they were comfortable their own finances will allow them to weather the storm. For some, taking the money seemed riskier than turning it down. ¶
\tWe finally said, Hey do we really want to go down this path? said Michael Blodnick, chief executive of Glacier Bancorp of Kalispell, Mont. I understand a lot of banks do, and a lot of banks need to. ¶
"Honorable pilots of the Kamikaze Air Force,
Today you will fly high into the sky,
Seek out the Yankee aircraft carrier,
Come down,
Very fast,
And crash into the deck, killing yourself,
And all aboard.
Now before we proceed with the ceremonial sake toast, are there any questions?"
mattdog | 01.29.09 - 1:34 pm |
in the beginning of this bear market, a lot of the shorting of financials was done by smallish hedge funds (e.g. lahde, einhorn). it is now my belief that the bondholders (or their surrogates) are making a run on the bank common to force the USG to backstop the bank's bondholders. Witness the collapse of AIG, C, BAC, RBS, etc and the bailouts that ensued. the road map for the bondholders has been laid out.
if the bad bank is still in float stage, a run on JPM will force the government's hands.
"Normally that only happens on Up days on this blog."
true, all of the CR groupthink plays are fairly spectacular today. cranky pants would indeed be mysterious. maybe it is the whole real-economy-out-there factor.
Pavel Chichikov writes:
I'm away for a morning and come back to find loads of distressing news. Can't I trust you guys for even a few hours? [irony].
Every day seems worse than the day before. Where is this all headed?
.
"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a Heaven of Hell, a Hell of Heaven. what matter where, if I be still the same, and what I should be, all but less than he whom thunder hath made greater?
Here at least we shall be free; th' Almighty hath not built here for his envy, will not drive us hence: Here we may reign secure; and, in my choice, to reign is worth ambition, though in Hell: better to reign in Hell than serve in Heaven."
It doesn't need to be nearly as deep or prolonged as the Great Depression to cause massive societal upheaval. We've grown fat and lazy over the decades, and I suspect it will soon become apparent that things don't always get better. In fact, they can get much, much worse. Anonymous | 01.29.09 - 1:46 pm | #
I hate replying to someone with no name, much less agreeing with that person, but that is exactly the way I think this situation will develop.
Or, as I've said, today's Americans aren't going to suffer stoically and try to plant potatoes in the back yard.
More than a million public sector workers in France staged a massive strike on Thursday to protest President Nicolas Sarkozy's handling of the economic crisis
and this coming from workers who IIFC get 7 weeks paid vacation, free healthcare, paid retirement.
Barley | 01.29.09 - 1:25 pm | #
You confuse cause and effect. The reason they have such benefits is their willingness to raise hell. The last times US workers defended themselves was the union movement of the 1930's and (for different reasons) the civil rights movement of the 60's. Both were periods of civil unrest and violence. The next occurence is about 10 years overdue.
Here in Minnesota our governor has a plan to pull us out of the red. According to Gov.Pawlenty the solution to our $4.5 billion shortfall and the declining economy is to halve corporate taxes and make up the difference by cutting benefits to people who are so disabled that they can't complain. Pawlenty is sure that this will bring a big influx of businesses into MN and pull us back from the precipice.
Have we ever had a recession where each and every state showed a decline in economic activity? "Worst since 1982" or "Worst since the Great Depression" doesn't really seem to be cutting it, anymore. \t Jake in Milwaukee | \t \t \t \t01.29.09 - 12:32 pm | Jake in Milwaukee | 01.29.09 - 12:32 pm | #
If the global map showed this proportion of countries this red, what would we call it?
It is really going to be a depression only when an American and a Russian go together drinking and two hours later the Russian runs away shouting "I just can't stand you anymore! All doom&gloom, all the time! Get A LIFE, you loser!"
Two questions from someone who's not a macroeconomist:
Jas, you stated (in an earlier thread) that Fed actions were not "printing money". Is this because the manner in which the Fed works - Treasury purchases are funded simply by accounting maneuvers, and the Treasury in turn, purchases things like bad bank debt - also via accounting maneuvers i.e. there is an increase in the Fed's balance sheet to match the hole in the economy's but there is no "cash" printed.
Completely unrelated - where's a good part of the country to look at buying a piece of land to live off-grid? No - I'm not an end-of-the-world worst-case scenario expecting nut. I just really want to quit the big city and live the rest of my life in quieter surroundings, independent of what happens around me.
As for the 'recovery' plan, Sherrod Brown and company will sink our trade relations with their "Buy America" provisions... I have direct experience with Buy America. It hits municipalities and states and their local taxpayers with much higher costs to benefit a steelmaker in some Congressman's district far from home and any port.
The dollar is stronger against other currencies atm, and other commodities are largely declining in price - while the magnitude is limited, it sure can be seen as a shot across the bow...
mp: If you're still out there...if you & Monk Conjure leave, who will chronicle the end times. We need the epic recorded & hidden in the mountain cave for the future.
2. Completely unrelated - where's a good part of the country to look at buying a piece of land to live off-grid? No - I'm not an end-of-the-world worst-case scenario expecting nut. I just really want to quit the big city and live the rest of my life in quieter surroundings, independent of what happens around me.
Northeastern Arizona ain't bad; just right summers, coldish winters, can plant almost anything. Tons of sun and constant wind don't have to drill too deep for water.
Polite neighbors, lots of federal land to limit development, basically anything on the Colorado plateau. A couple of hours to the big cities, lakes, skiing and an international airport.
I hate replying to someone with no name, much less agreeing with that person, but that is exactly the way I think this situation will develop. Or, as I've said, today's Americans aren't going to suffer stoically and try to plant potatoes in the back yard.
sportsfan | 01.29.09 - 1:51 pm | #
Sorry, cleared some kind of cache in my browser... didn't intend to post anonymously (though I guess the ztexas handle that I've been using is effectively anonymous other than indicating my locale).
You are correct... stoicism is not the hallmark of the 2008 model American (or Canadian, or 'Westerner', for that matter).
I'm pretty 'soft' myself, though I can see what's coming, and I'm making some of the necessary preparations. Just today, I bought some PVC pipe and dessicant for the purposes of burying cash in the backyard
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins
If only you could have lived my last week- up until yesterday, there literally was nobody much in charge of the state where I live...but I can't tell tales out of school.
Anon writes: We've grown fat and lazy over the decades, and I suspect it will soon become apparent that things don't always get better. In fact, they can get much, much worse.
There's no guarantee that things will get better. But they never do get better without becoming much, much worse first. We need to be sufficiently uncomfortable in order to change.
I also don't get that today's Americans can't necessarily handle what has to happen. Given some hope and a clear direction, and the zeitgeist can turn on a dime. Bush had a bit of that, but his direction was off a cilff.
where's a good part of the country to look at buying a piece of land to live off-grid? No - I'm not an end-of-the-world worst-case scenario expecting nut. I just really want to quit the big city and live the rest of my life in quieter surroundings, independent of what happens around me.
Thanks!
Confused_inNY | 01.29.09 - 1:55 pm | #
depends on your preferences doesnt it!
the west coast from brookings oregon all the way north to cape flattery washington has mild but wet weather year round
easy to stay warm, plenty of wood for a home, water never a problem,. no worry about firestorms So Cal fires, and a half stupid man can live off the fish and clams to be found all round.
however you are more likely to rust than tan in this environment!
Jim \t NC Jim | \t \t \t \t01.29.09 - 1:51 pm | # It seems to me that the majority of natural-born Americans really have it stacked against them. First, they are taught to believe in the religion of America, that this is the "greatest place on earth." Then, they are taken to places of worship, indoctrinated with the idea that "faith" leads to salvation. The unholy alliance of the fundamentalist christians and the fundamentalist America-worshippers has produced a society that doesn't question. If they don't succeed, it's because of a lack of faith in the American system, because by golly there couldn't be anything wrong with the system itself! Those few that manage to see through it have turned to gaming the system, something even uglier to watch.
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
What others have said about CRBot: Gary writes: This CRbot is pretty nifty. EvilHenryPaulson writes: CRBot is great on mobiles Loudocracy writes:
Thank god CRbot spared me from that dead thread. Hoopajoops writes: Posting a test message from the IRC Channel... THIS THING ROCKS
CRBot: Killing dead threads deader since last week.
Proposals of direct grants are out there. This is what Morgan Stanley told Congress at a hearing on January 15:
Last, policymakers should adopt the most direct, fast-acting traditional fiscal policy tools. We favor two options: A payroll tax holiday or a sizeable cut in payroll taxes, and grants to state and local governments. For example, a six-month suspension of the payroll tax would quickly inject US$425 billion into the economy. It would provide a boost to discretionary spending for lower-income workers who have the highest propensity to spend. In addition, cutting payroll taxes would reduce the cost of labor for employers, which, in turn, should help to stem the pace of job loss and shore up profitability. Grants to state and local governments would immediately forestall cuts in needed services, especially if they boost temporarily the share of Medicaid borne by the Federal government.
my fav (lately...changes every month or two!) "machine gun" off the album "band of gypsies", the lead guitar lunges at you right out of the battle field
You mean Buddy Miles. Check out the Experience Hendrix Project releases, available on vinyl. (Company run by evil step-sister, but never mind). Almost anything live from 1970 is untouchable.
yes, the creationist component (45% by recent pew polls) is indeed toxic.
still, it is the greatest country on earth if only in its physical bounty, while the legacy of the constitution is indeed divine, especially if we can remove the post-TR defacement of it. Encouraging the secession of the 95 corridor, rust belt and Texas also wouldn't be a bad idea.
Pavel,
While the kamikaze movement had many fathers, I believe the consensus opinion credits VAdm Onishi Takijiro with their initiation in the Phillipines during 1944. "Sho", I believe, means "Victory".
The quotation, in any case, is from Cheech and Chong. The response is:
"Honorable General, Sir,
Are you out of your fucking mind?"
Please forgive me; I have had far too much coffee this morning.
still, it is the greatest country on earth if only in its physical bounty, while the legacy of the constitution is indeed divine, especially if we can remove the post-TR defacement of it. Encouraging the secession of the 95 corridor, rust belt and Texas also wouldn't be a bad idea. \t bgates | \t \t \t \t01.29.09 - 2:13 pm | # The greatest place on earth is no one physical place. It is wherever one can be contented together with those important to them. Some will find these places in many places throughout the world, others will never find it, especially those tied down to the idea of a physical "greatest place on earth."
Confused_inNY writes:
where's a good part of the country to look at buying a piece of land to live off-grid?
You will need a propane fridge, air tight wood burner, Aladdin lamps, generator, a chain saw and lots of tools. For that lifestyle the Gulf Islands are good; in which case, add a 17' boat to the list, and an extra battery. You should be able to get in for about 200,000...or 100K in 2010
--
Two questions from someone who's not a macroeconomist: 1. Jas, you stated (in an earlier thread) that Fed actions were not "printing money". Is this because the manner in which the Fed works - Treasury purchases are funded simply by accounting maneuvers, and the Treasury in turn, purchases things like bad bank debt - also via accounting maneuvers i.e. there is an increase in the Fed's balance sheet to match the hole in the economy's but there is no "cash" printed. 2. Completely unrelated - where's a good part of the country to look at buying a piece of land to live off-grid? No - I'm not an end-of-the-world worst-case scenario expecting nut. I just really want to quit the big city and live the rest of my life in quieter surroundings, independent of what happens around me. Thanks!
Confused_inNY,
All the money is created by credit (currency in circulation is a small part and plays no role other than convenience and does not contribute to any inflation). All the new money from the Treasury, and indirectly the Fed, IS BORROWED IN THE OPEN MARKET AND THAT IS ****NOT*** THE SAME AS PRINTING MONEY. Printing Money is a myth and only born-sand-bred American dopes believe in it because of the propaganda use of the term, INCLUDING BY EVILDOER BERNANKE. The guy is a propagandist and an egomaniac not too different than Rush Limbaugh.
I am not very knowledgeable on this subject, but an area where you feel safe based on your ethnicity is a very good start. Yes, when trouble comes to America ethnicity would be a big part of what areas are safe, relatively speaking, for whom. White Christians would fair the best and areas where there is very high concentration of white Christians are going to be the safest areas in the US. Some minorities would suffer more than others.
Off topic, but: what's the deal with the lack of US press coverage of European demonstrations related to the economy? Iceland, Latvia... OK, not big countries. But France?
With all my flaws, and I have many, I have a very good knack of seeing trouble 18-36 months ahead of time. This also applies to my view on inflation and the US Treasuries. I believe in being early, and pay some price, than being late. Being late is for dopes.
Have they been told to not publicize this stuff? \t wally | \t \t \t \t01.29.09 - 2:31 pm | #
It seems the rantings of some governor from Illinois is more important than hundreds of thousands of French marching in protest. Weird, isn't it? Being late is for dopes. That's a good line.
Actually, water is a problem in western OR--at least on the north central coast. Some of the groundwater near the coast isn't much good (too much Fe, etc.) and while it may rain hard during the winter (it's been sort of deluge or below average this fall/winter), there's usually 3-4 months with almost no rain at all during the summer. The people who live 10-20 miles inland routinely report seeing their springs run low by August, i.e., their water supply gets low. Many people try to buy huge water tanks that are placed downhill from the water source that fill at night so they can water their gardens & fruit trees & berries.
Lack of water is probably one of the few roadblocks in the way of massive residential/"resort" development of private timber land (which the timber co., such as Plum Creek would love & pushed for).
As for fire: every summer, burn restrictions are put in place by July by most of the coastal cities (i.e., you can't burn trash, yard waste, etc., within city limits) and usually this county does too. By August--at the latest--fire hazard in the Siuslaw National forest (and probably some others, but I'm most familiar with the Siuslaw)in western OR frequently is so high that fires are banned outside of campgrounds w/fire circles and often there are "hoot owl" restrictions on logging.
On average, LI, NY, (where I grew up) gets greater annual precipitation than western OR does, plus it tends to rain during the summer on LI, which is does very little of, at least on the north central coast and inland towards the coast range. When I lived in Eugene (Willamette valley), I used to see huge irrigation apparatus being used all summer.
On the north central coast, the cool temperatures makes growing anything but cool weather crops (lettuce, cole crops, etc.) difficult--you have to compensate for the cool nights, etc. Berries do ok. Four or five miles inland, there's much better gardening/growing conditions (also better for fruit like plums & apples), but even so, the growing season for crops like corn, melons & peppers is very short. If you have a greenhouse. southern exposure & good supply of water, you can probably garden/produce some veg, all year 'round.
Most of the agriculture along the coast was dairy. Some fruit, like apples. On the southern coast, cranberries are grown commercially.
We white collar trailer trash depressives should plan for a party this coming friday. Won't we get some new GDP figures then? What to serve? What entertainment to choose? How about Steel Reserve and beans over Spam? Can someone design a WII game around the red states map?
If only you could have lived my last week- up until yesterday, there literally was nobody much in charge of the state where I live...but I can't tell tales out of school. Citizen AllenM | 01.29.09 - 2:04 pm | #
Hurray for zero! I knew we'd see a CR graph like this eventually.
zeroth
We are all in the red now!!!
Woo hoo.. we are all red now.
Must be time for the 51st state! But where would we find a profitable one?
Firstest
Really?
How far will it go?
0 is definitely a bottom.
Washington DC will have the best economy in the country.
âWe have a financial system that is run by private shareholders, managed by private institutions, and we'd like to do our best to preserve that system."Tim Geithner
Well, at least we've hit a "bottom" on that second chart!
That chart says it all...game set match!
Wait a minute. MA is doing better than the rest of New England? That doesn't sound right.
How many states are there again?
Nostrovia,
Can we go to -1 (Canada eh?)
Queasy stomach... have ALL the states ever been red?
Also, the pace is picking up from the table on page two of the release... US 9 month change, -0.9%; 3 month change, -0.8%; 1 month change, -0.3%...
Republicans vote 0 on the big O bill
Wow, after voting yes on their born again Prezs crap for 8 years, they have now found political religion.
When I first heard about TARP, the blatant transfer of $700 billion of taxpayer money to the perpetrators of fraud, I first thought it was erroneous reporting. When I saw the 3-pager and that "decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency", I was amazed that Paulson had the gall/stupidity to propose it. I thought Paulson would be laughed off. I was even more amazed when the Congress rolled over and approved it with some cosmetic changes. Now when I hear Son of TARP (bad bank), my reaction is of course the fraudsters will win again.
I see 3 green states on the map. So 3 states are in the gree
Have we ever had a recession where each and every state showed a decline in economic activity? "Worst since 1982" or "Worst since the Great Depression" doesn't really seem to be cutting it, anymore.
It must be Palins leadership.....
I see 3 green states on the map. So 3 states are in the green
green | 01.29.09 - 12:32 pm | #
Three-month data on the map. December-only in terms of all 50 states in decline.
Say it, CR.
You can do it.
'Depression.'
There.
That wasn't so bad, was it?
BOTTOM!
By definition.
It's called a "depression". Word of the year in '09.
Yes, but what about DC?
Don't worry...I have it on good authority it will all be over and we'll be better by June. Second half rally. Steve Leisman says so. So does Don Luskin. So does Ken Fisher. ....
I for one am going to buy houses in Phoenix, and flip them for an easy profit...how hard can it be?
Yes, but what about DC?
We will survive until the next "Event."
FWIW there is a pretty good CR'esq write up on Corp. Bonds at Accrued Interest today....
............
Somebody said it yesterday, how long until it starts happening here on a larger scale? Kidnapping for Profit. I think Mr. Thain over there in the corner is volunteering for the pilot program.
The rain it raineth on the just,
And also on the unjust fella.
But chiefly on the just, because
The unjust hath the justs umbrella.
Lord Justice Bowe
Saved By Zero!
Louisiana still in post-Katrina spending mode?
scone writes:
Louisiana still in post-Katrina spending mode?
scone | 01.29.09 - 12:37 pm | #
Port traffic? Good point, though...
w-o-w. Now THAT'S impressive.
uncle
yes still rebuilding until 2020 in louisiana
The Greater Depression
So the Right-wing Conservative Republicans really did manage to paint the whole nation "red" ...
yes still rebuilding until 2020 in louisiana
Ju | 01.29.09 - 12:38 pm
202? LOL
They will be blown down an away again by then.
crispy&cole writes:
That chart says it all...game set match!
No. I'm waiting for shades of black for greater refinement
Three month Changes
Light Grey: -1.0%
Dark Grey: -2.5 to -1.0
Stripped Grey: -3.0 to -2.5
Light Black: -4.5 to -3.0
Black: Greater than -4.5
But I don't look good in red.
Damn that is one scary graph.
maybe we need more hurricanes to trash some inventories
When is the next post-market bailout announcement (but insiders find out before everyone else) so we can rally again?
I think there is an error in the legend on the map: the deepest red should be MORE than 1% down, not LESS.
This should be news for a rally, it can't go any lower! Yeah!!
I feel better seeing MA isn't as dark a red as the rest of the vicinity...
BOTTOM!
Nemo | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 12:35 pm | #
And to think you mock cnbc for saying that the bottom is in.
The second graph is of the monthly Philly Fed data of the number of states with one month increasing activity. For the first time ever, the Philly Fed index showed no states with increasing activity.
We obviously need more States.
Maybe I'll win - saved by zero!
Have we ever had a recession where each and every state showed a decline in economic activity? "Worst since 1982" or "Worst since the Great Depression" doesn't really seem to be cutting it, anymore.
I think Taleb Nassim said "Worst since the American Revolution".
i try to joke but this ain't more funny
big O should help some food banks
any food-banker wannabe ?
"coincident indexes" What does it mean ?
I think Taleb Nassim said "Worst since the American Revolution".
ac | 01.29.09 - 12:44 pm | #
LOL! He makes Roubini sound bullish.
he must have meant coincidence indices.
All markets are local and red.
I think there is an error in the legend on the map: the deepest red should be MORE than 1% down, not LESS.
Hal | 01.29.09 - 12:41 pm | #
Since this is measuring growth and the numbers are negative, LESS is "MORE".
It is now getting scary. Given the world is probably on the same path....
maybe we need more hurricanes to trash some inventories
Ju | 01.29.09 - 12:40 pm | #
Something tells me the insurers arent all that sturdy now a days....
Wow. So much for the "great moderation" and concepts of "rolling recessions"!
That chart looks diabolical. Fangs with dripping blood come to mind.
Most of the U.S. was has been in recession since December 2007 based on this indicator - and now ALL states are see declining activity.
Those two simple facts (all states one year into the drop) is why this will be worse than 1980-82.
That map is the last thing an economist sees before they die.
After 8 grueling years under the Bush admin, finally we have become united as a nation once again. Gob bless Amerika!
Jake - did you listen to Doyle's SotS address last night?
"Because of this situation, Wisconsin is facing a budget gap that had been estimated at $5.4 billion, or 17 percent of our biennial budget. That figure, unfortunately, is going to grow with the latest data."
at least we're not California!
w00t! Nowhere to go but up! Heh.
Damn correlations keep screwing up my models! Ran my Monte Carlo simulation millions of times and never saw this coming...
I think we can safely say the recession is contained to only 50 states.
The economic depression will only be surpassed by the emotional depression when the born and bred dopes realize what they let happen; when, starting with Reagan, they voted themselves short term wealth from the public trust and turned a blind eye to what the crooks did with the rest.
simple it's a I-shape recession
no bottom, no rebound, nothing to worry about
at least we're not California!
Shnaps | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 12:50 pm | #
insolvent vs illiquid, hummm... wait... we're both... nevermind....
Decreased worker mobility is kinda moot-- there is nowhere to go, no safe haven. The whole planet is going radioactive. It's a Dalek plot.
We obviously need more States.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 12:43 pm | #
I nominate for admission the State of Denial.
Hurray for zero! I knew we'd see a CR graph like this eventually.
JP | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 12:26 pm | #
On the bright side, the diffusion index cant get any worse. BOTTOM (or at least what comes out of the bottom)
Shnaps | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 12:50 pm | #
Must admit I really am not too enamoured by Doyle...
I think he needs to go bigger, bolder. The last thing he should be doing is cutting budgets. Float a bond, for crissakes, this boat's sinking. I agree with you that we're not CA. Though, they're issuing IOU's. Even Zimbabwe is printing money.
Hmmm...
Dollar up AND gold up...
Equities selling AND long bond selling...
I think I figured out why CR is so addictive for me. It's my "Jerry Springer", the only place I can find people more depressing than I am. With Springer it was the only place dysfunctional trailer trash could watch people more dysfunctional than they were.
Invade Canada and Puerto Rico NOW!
ades - the better news to come out of it is that we can now power our cars on cheese!
Let me recognize another innovator who did more with what he had, who saw more than just a cheese processing plant at the crossroads of a small central Wisconsin town. This is someone who took the leftover ingredients of cheesemaking whey permeate and found a way to turn it into a renewable fuel. He then set up a local distribution network for his cheese-based ethanol. I am proud to introduce Joe Van Groll.
You know, in other places, they just eat cheese. But here we wear it on our heads when we watch football and now, thanks to Joe, Wisconsin is the state where we can even use it to drive our cars.
Now, if only the Governator can figure out a way to fuel cars with Option-ARM mortgages, you guys'll be golden.
Janosik, obviously, some elements of american culture still escape you.
"realize what they let happen"
Americans have no true historical memory beyond the past few years, in California, the past few months, in Southern California, the past few weeks.
1980 AD might as well be 1980 BC.
Dollar up AND gold up...
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 12:54 pm | #
Its truely scary to think that most of the world is currently or will soon be worse off than we are....
I wonder what their color coated maps look like....
Hmmm...
Dollar up AND gold up...
Equities selling AND long bond selling...
citizen energyecon
Conjure's clock along with the Daily Bail have gone viral.
Back off man, just back off. I'm not kidding
What % of US economic activity do ND and WY represent? My guess would be somewhere around 0.1%. The combined populations of those states are equal to what, the population of Yonkers NY?
JPMorgan Chase & Co has "plenty of capital" and wants governments to stop talking about nationalizing banks, its CEO said on Thursday.
"JPMorgan would be fine if we stopped talking about (the) damn nationalization of banks ... we've got plenty of capital,"
JP Morgan says has plenty of capital
| Reuters
Translation: We're broke.
In all seriousness, this partially validates the Flyover America being buffered theory. I don't believe it but the data says as much. I would point out that Louisiana is down so far they've got nothing but up. Also Texahoma is still burning off its $147 oil euphoria.
Massachusetts is somewhat of an outlier. Personally I think it is a reporting artifact as the historical gap twixt R.I. & MA rates persists at high levels.
I do like the last graph of States with increases 0-50. It is like the Electoral College in being definitive.
How's Guam doing?
Interesting Times writes:
0 is definitely a bottom.
If it's a Japanese zero it leads to an 18 year bottom.
Now, if only the Governator can figure out a way to fuel cars with Option-ARM mortgages, you guys'll be golden.
Shnaps | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 12:54 pm | #
LOL! We'd be rich as Â
I think I figured out why CR is so addictive for me. It's my "Jerry Springer", the only place I can find people more depressing than I am. With Springer it was the only place dysfunctional trailer trash could watch people more dysfunctional than they were.
I always think of CR as kind of a site for "white collar trailer trash".
Didnt I see that last chart carved in the wall of a cave in a Monty Python movie.....???????
Argentineans
Why is the recession (blue) bar growing thicker?
"I think Taleb Nassim said "Worst since the American Revolution"."
Which one?
Oh my GOD, it's a cute little rabbit, come here little rabbjzolhfoaldvs....................rrjrfnnnn,;,p[,cwccmmcpmc0jcf-q=0uif=ir..........
I always think of CR as kind of a site for "white collar trailer trash".
ac | 01.29.09 - 12:59 pm | #
High functioning ones I'd like to add....
If it's a Japanese zero it leads to an 18 year bottom.
peAk | 01.29.09 - 12:58 pm | #
On a related subject, I can't believe people buy cars made by Mitsubishi.
just lightened up a tad on the JNK.
worst-case, treasuries keep tanking, the candy store in congress gets a little tight just as trillion dollar bills from the FDIC and PBGC come due, meaning bailing out corporate paper is not quite as likely
I always think of CR as kind of a site for "white collar trailer trash".
ac
.
I resemble that remark.
Sitting with the Thinker trying to work it out
It's a traffic jam of the brain makes you wanna
scream and shout
Presidential party no one wants to dance
Looking for a new star to put you in a trance
Lets go all the way
Lets go all the way
Yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah
Lets go all the way
Working in a factory eight days a week
Try to make dollar damn what a beat
Cartoon capers happen in reality
Rich man poor man living in fantasy
Lets go all the way
Lets go all the way
Ah ah ah lets go all the way
(Wow, fuck yeah)
Yeah yeah yeah
Livin' in New York looks like an apple core (apple core)
Asphalt Jungle got to be a man of war
California dreamers sleeping in the sand
The Hollywood Squares are living in Disney Land
(weeeehaaaa)
Lets go all the way (Lets go all the way)
Lets go all the way (Lets go ah ah ah)
Lets go all the way - Lets go all the way
Lets go all the way
We need heaven on earth today (ah ah ah)
We can make a better way
Lets go all the way
Go all the way
Yeah, lets go all the way
Yeah - na na na na na na na na na
na na na na na na na na yeah
Well one scenario is a spike in dollar value goes with large scale selling of any kind of dollar denominated asset...like say, Treasury debt. Then you have a sweaty wad of dollars you need to move into to something else, pronto...like say, some PM?
High functioning ones I'd like to add....
nades
speak for yourself
The economic depression will only be surpassed by the emotional depression when the born and bred dopes realize what they let happen; when, starting with Reagan, they voted themselves short term wealth from the public trust and turned a blind eye to what the crooks did with the rest.
I really think it started with Nixon when we abandoned the gold standard. Whatever you think of the gold standard, the only reason I can think of for getting rid of it once you're on it is to start spending more than you make as a nation.
It's like a statement of intent to become insolvent.
The deficit spending of the 80s certainly started the realization of this insolvency in earnest.
I think I figured out why CR is so addictive for me. It's my "Jerry Springer", the only place I can find people more depressing than I am. With Springer it was the only place dysfunctional trailer trash could watch people more dysfunctional than they were.
Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 12:54 pm | #
Wow, what a lucky move!
I'm sure they didn't know----
JPMorgan Chase says that its potential losses related to Bernard L. Madoff, the man accused of engineering an immense global Ponzi scheme, are pretty close to zero. But what some angry European investors want to know is when the bank cut its exposure to Mr. Madoff and why.
JPMorgan Chases headquarters in Manhattan. A spokeswoman said the bank became concerned about the lack of transparency as it reviewed its investments linked to Bernard Madoff.
As early as 2006, the bank had started offering investors a way to leverage their bets on the future performance of two hedge funds that invested with Mr. Madoff. To protect itself from the resulting risk, the bank put $250 million of its own money into those funds.
But the bank suddenly began pulling its millions out of those funds in early autumn, months before Mr. Madoff was arrested, according to accounts from Europe and New York that were subsequently confirmed by the bank. The bank did not notify investors of its move, and several of them are furious that it protected itself but left them holding notes that the bank itself now says are probably worthless.
scone writes:
Louisiana still in post-Katrina spending mode?
scone | 01.29.09 - 12:37 pm | #
Port traffic? Good point, though...
Jake in Milwaukee | 01.29.09 - 12:37 pm | #
And it takes a while to wind down energy infrastructure projects... you don't just turn on and turn off petrochem and when oil was $140/bbl [seemed like a lifetime ago]... they launched a lot of programs. In LA, TX, WY & AK. Give a few quarters of $40/bbl and those will wrap up and then we'll see how well they are doing.
vix a bargain.
xom cvx less than 24 hours!
Somebody said it yesterday, how long until it starts happening here on a larger scale? Kidnapping for Profit. I think Mr. Thain over there in the corner is volunteering for the pilot program.
Builder Bob | 01.29.09 - 12:36 pm | #
This has been a safe country to be rich in -- you could show off your wealth and nobody would snatch you. Unlike in the third world, or even (especially) Europe.
That may well change as people realize that the rich are different: they largely made their money by inheriting it or manipulating financial markets (aka chicanery).
When we lose the American myth that we are a classless society with a level playing field, the super-rich rich lose much of their societal protection. I could see kidnapping tycoons becoming like robbing banks in the '30s -- against the law, but on some level admired.
I was downtown last night just as a luxury private bus pulled up -- the kind built on a big-rig tractor platform, fancy as hell. People in hyper-expensive evening clothing and jewelry piled out, laughing and giggling and smelling of alcohol. Plowed right into the line of passing pedestrians without looking. They looked like they were from Mars compared to everybody else.
JP Morgan would never be involved in anything nefarious, now would they?
Texahoma
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 12:57 pm | #
Please don't use that word on this board again.
"I really think it started with Nixon when we abandoned the gold standard."
the abandonment of silver in the coinage was really the start of that chapter, BW dumping was only the conclusion. one of many ways in which JFK was one of our worst presidents ever relative to the time he had to do damage.
of course, the illegal war in SE asia, 'great society' and the buildout of colleges for boomer capacity was also a big factor.
Seems like as good a time as any to replay this gem...
YouTube - Should The Government Stop Dumping Money Into A Giant Hole?
"State of Denial"
-snaps!
Time to clear a little land folks and prepare to start gardening this spring. We are getting close to the time when you're going to have to grow your own food, but only if you want to eat better than what the government hands out to you (rice, beans, bulk butter and powered milk).
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.
They looked like they were from Mars compared to everybody else.
Bob Dobbs
.
Maybe they are. Cue scary sci-fi music.
Blackhalo,
Turn about is fair play. Who would you vote for if it was a choice of McC or Palin? You have to pick one.
market taking a big dip, just watched about ten days low light up my screen, and I am only watching about 12 symbols.
Why is the recession (blue) bar growing thicker?
REBear | 01.29.09 - 1:00 pm | #
I thought Liz, Kristina and I settled this long ago. Thick is good
Kristina on Springer:
+1
Bob Dobbs
See the movie Liam - what you said.
Who's letting the cows out...
one of many ways in which JFK was one of our worst presidents ever relative to the time he had to do damage.
bgates | 01.29.09 - 1:04 pm | #
??? Silver was removed from coinage in 1965 when the market price exceeded $1.29/oz. LBJ was President. What did Kennedy do that caused silver to be removed?
The red in the map is for the blood running in the gutters across the US, but not yet (ever?) running on Wall Street.
I'm feeling retributive...
According to 50states.com, ND and WY have ~1.1 million population between them...if we use US population estimate of 303 million, then we round to ~0.4% on a per capita basis.
GDP is not evenly distributed, if we cut that in half or so due to economic activity being concentrated in large cities, we end up at 0.2% - so a SWAG of 0.1% is in the ballpark.
http://www.slate.com/id/2209893/
SLATE
I See Dead Bankers!
Wall Street has become The Sixth Sensefilled with corpses who think they're still alive.
By Daniel Gross
So why is TBT climbing so rapidly today after the Fed's statement yesterday?
who gets paid to write these DUMBASS headlines?
Stocks Fall on Fresh Worries About the Economy- AP
On a related subject, I can't believe people buy cars made by Mitsubishi.
sportsfan | 01.29.09 - 1:00 pm | #
Or flew Lufthansa in the 1950s
Decreased worker mobility is kinda moot-- there is nowhere to go, no safe haven. The whole planet is going radioactive. It's a Dalek plot.
scone | 01.29.09 - 12:52 pm | #
Did you notice how red NH looks?
Comrade Kristina writes:
I think I figured out why CR is so addictive for me. It's my "Jerry Springer", the only place I can find people more depressing than I am.
LOL! come to think of it, I think maybe CR alone is to blame for lost productivity on a wide scale in this country... Gotta. Kick. This. Habit.
CEO, Blackstone Group -
"You are walking with your head high," I remarked. "I'm walking with my head still on," he replied. "That's the good news." The bad news? When I asked him for his estimate of how long the hard times will last, he told me: "Don't hold your breath. And don't buy new clothes."
I think leaving the gold standard was a symptom of the problem...which was ,basically, the erosion of American economic dominance
tap..tap...tap..is this thing working?
imagonna try it again
"Not much left to discuss."...
On the contrary, a whole new way of thinking and acting is emerging. The train is picking up speed and will be shunted into unfamiliar canyons.
an example scenario:
Globalisation is at the tipping point. Free stimulus money creation has reached its limit. As American dollars slosh back to its shores, as labour unrest turns to violence, the barriers to trade will slam into place. Reciprocal measures then soon guarantee a currency crisis and bond wars with new alliances.
The inevitable solution will lead to a new American currency limited to internal trade to stimulate national industries. Old dollars will be massively devalued.
Of course, instead of considering these possibilities, which would take more that 3 words to discuss, you can just drag out worn out jibes of "tin foil hats" and keep on sniffing for the inevitable daily bottom.
Texahoma
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 12:57 pm | #
Please don't use that word on this board again.
RockyR,
Od what? You'll cut off our access to.... ummm. You'll stop buying our... You'll, I know, keep making fun of us?
I'm old enough to be able to laugh at the enduring NE - Cal - Tx plays to laugh at the occasional PNW and Chicago attempts to play at the big table.
dryfly | 01.29.09 - 1:04 pm | #
heyas dryfly,
The big upstream projects are the same way, once you start cutting steel a series of contracts for the life of the project buildout have been committed too - running several years and often in the billions.
ever broken until Puerto Rico and DC become states.
Did you notice how red NH looks?
Red. Very red.
Outsider
.
Yep. NH = OR. But house prices here are way worse. I could cash out there, with land, if I could sell here.
You are walking with your head high," I remarked
...the low spark of well-heeled boyz
"What did Kennedy do that caused silver to be removed?"
that was an extension of his policies. also, i believe there was a year where it was lessened first.
believe it or not, it isn't as simple as a sitting president making a phone call to the mint the days before the coins roll of the machine.
They looked like they were from Mars compared to everybody else.
Bob Dobbs
.
Maybe they are. Cue scary sci-fi music.
\t scone | \t \t \t \t01.29.09 - 1:06 pm | #
You ever see John Carpenter's pulp paranoia opus, "They Live"? Alien corporate scum taking over the planet while masquerading as human yuppies? Like that.
"who gets paid to write these DUMBASS headlines?
Stocks Fall on Fresh Worries About the Economy- AP"
Stocks Tumble as Profit Taking Kicks In - CNBC
Three days gone in a couple of hours...
Builder Bob : the market is testing fed
I'm not sure if this was posted earlier, but the US Treasury is going to backstop the entire student loan market using a QSPE vehicle created by MS and C.
which begs the question of why even bothering with the private intermediaries?
U.S. Said to Give $60 Billion Student-Loan Backing (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
In the last 2 hours Layoff Daily Reports this:
Thur 1-29-2009 - Headlines (updated 4-8X a day)
The Bon-Ton Stores Inc. -1,150
Severstal -22
Normandy School District -45 Teachers
ACS Alaska Telecom -20
Hayes Workers Called Back to Work +42
CommScope -230
Trinity Tank Car -250
ABC News -40
Teradyne Laying Off 14% -300
Big West Refinery Closing -150
Fish and Richardson Law Firm -30
I think I figured out why CR is so addictive for me. It's my "Jerry Springer", the only place I can find people more depressing than I am.
Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 12:54 pm | #
Yeah, yeah. It is ALL fun and games, until someone throws a chair.
When we lose the American myth that we are a classless society with a level playing field, the super-rich rich lose much of their societal protection.
Bob Dobbs | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 1:04 pm | #
We are all Somallia now?
throws chair
If anyone needs a signpost.
Airbus has dropped out of the Air Force One competition because in the current political environment their likely win would do more harm than good. Their stated reason is so that they can focus on re-winning the tanker program that they've won three time so far.
Gee, My State is same color of Cali.
We have had same economy for past five years, in the tank, being bailed out by The White Haired Old Man in the Senate with good Republican Hands that carried the Water for The Party.
The well has run dry, pond water from now on.
US Treasury is going to backstop the entire student loan market
You can load up a donkey pretty heavily, but if you aren't careful, you can break his back.
Is this what the bottom looks like in the Swedish model too?
U Siv A
Or flew Lufthansa in the 1950s
peAk | 01.29.09 - 1:08 pm | #
John Lennon used to say it was good to fly Lufthansa to London because all the pilots surely knew the route.
Look at the bright side. Our country finally decided as a whole whether it is red or blue.
We are truly United.
OK, where is CRBot (Irritating)?
It's been over an hour since something hit a record low and I'm not buying it.
Hayes Workers Called Back to Work +42
Market's gotta rally on that news
Turn about is fair play. Who would you vote for if it was a choice of McC or Palin? You have to pick one.
Economist Moe Howard 3SU | 01.29.09 - 1:06 pm | #
McCain of course. Particularly McCain 2000. Palin eptomizes everything that is wrong with the Republican party. All talk, no walk. McCain being painted as a "rebel" or "maverick" is absured. He has remained, old school, Rebublician for decades and it is only the asinine direction the party took in 1980 that he has rebelled against. He and HW were "real" Republicans. Not the RINOs we have today.
More than a million public sector workers in France staged a massive strike on Thursday to protest President Nicolas Sarkozy's handling of the economic crisis,
"Washington DC will have the best economy in the country."
That was true throughout the Bush administration.
One of those interesting oddball statistics. The four fastest growing (economically) counties in the US.
During the Bush administration they were Washington DC, Baltimore Maryland, and two other counties bordering DC.
During the Clinton administration they were King County Washington (Microsoft, Amazon, etc), San Mateo (Silicon Valley), and a couple others not near DC I can't remember (though I think at least one of them was another silicon Valley county).
I am kind of bored of all this recession stuff. I thought it might be kind of interesting and exciting at first, but its really a major let down. A few people unemployed here, a few there. A factory/store/company closes here and there. Drip, drip, drip. Every day is so similar to the previous day. I know some exciting things could still happen - a bond collapse or a currency war. But its just all taking way too long... This is totally like the part of the movie I would fast forward through.
Can we just quickly move on to the part where the major recovery of the economy begins?
chief optomist - temp work to dismantel machinery and inventory supplies.
sportsfan writes:
If it's a Japanese zero it leads to an 18 year bottom.
peAk | 01.29.09 - 12:58 pm | #
On a related subject, I can't believe people buy cars made by Mitsubishi.
sportsfan | 01.29.09 - 1:00 pm |
I drove an Eclipse in the 1990's. It was a decent automobile, IMO. Zero problems, decent mileage and most of all, it was cheap.
who gets paid to write these DUMBASS headlines?
Stocks Fall on Fresh Worries About the Economy- AP
RockyR | 01.29.09 - 1:08 pm |
Its fun to watch them try to keep up with the half hour market swings with their headlines.
Fish and Richardson Law Firm -30
Barley | 01.29.09 - 1:14 pm | #
At last - some GOOD news!
Not condoning Putin or his policies but he has some good points.
Excessive dependence on a single reserve currency is dangerous for the global economy. The time for enlightenment has come, he went on. We must calmly, and without gloating, assess the root causes of this situation and try to peek into the future.
This article was written 2.5 yrs ago and since then we have seen all the financial malfeasance from Wall St, The Fed, The Treasury and the Bush admin.
The case for a global currency
The case for a global currency - Editorials & Commentary - International Herald Tribune - The New York Times
FRIDAY, AUGUST 4, 2006
There is a rising tide of opposition around the world to Americas unilateral assertion of its national interests. But few realize that for the United States to become a more responsible country, the world economy needs to move from the current U.S. dollar standard to a global currency.
U.S. dominance rests not only on military superiority and on the size and productivity of its economy, but also on the fact that most international transactions are denominated in U.S. dollars and more than 60 percent of world foreign exchange reserves are held in U.S.-denominated assets, like U.S. Treasury bills.
The problem for the rest of the world is that the U.S. dollar standard encourages the United States to be careless in its monetary and fiscal policies.
Most of the states that are relatively better off-pink to green are energy producing state- specifically gas and oil. Another 6 months of sub $50 dollar oil, and they will be in the deep red, too.
It's not a zero, it's an "O", as in O-HHHHHHHHHHH shit this looks bad.
"DCRogers writes:
Damn correlations keep screwing up my models! Ran my Monte Carlo simulation millions of times and never saw this coming..."
In a crisis, all correlations go to zero, one, or negative one. Some of the reasons for zero are really annoying, like no more trading, or no more reliable data on at least one of the items you are comparing.
Did I miss high noon? I thought we were a microsecond away still.
"which begs the question of why even bothering with the private intermediaries?"
Because bankers can take their cut then make campaign contributions.
The private student loan program is a boondoggle. Does the same thing the government does for more money with more corruption less reliably.
After this masterduck clusterfuck depression USA will rise again with superior quality, real "untouchable" statesmen and women, right? Right? Hello...does this thing work...
believe it or not, it isn't as simple as a sitting president making a phone call to the mint the days before the coins roll of the machine.
bgates | 01.29.09 - 1:12 pm | #
Yes, I understand the process. Kennedy's administration may have had something to do with the planning for clad coinage, but I've never heard anyone suggest that before now. My memory, as a young teenager in 1964 was that the Mint was experimenting with substitute metals for blanks due to coinage beginning to be extracted from the system. By then of course Kennedy was gone.
BTW, all 1964 coinage is 90% silver. The 'lessening' you mentioned was only in the 1965-69 half dollars, which dropped to 40% along with the 1970 version that was never released into circulation.
REBear writes:
More than a million public sector workers in France staged a massive strike on Thursday to protest President Nicolas Sarkozy's handling of the economic crisis
and this coming from workers who IIFC get 7 weeks paid vacation, free healthcare, paid retirement.
Speed Comments:
"You can load up a donkey pretty heavily, but if you aren't careful, you can break his back."
...still laughing
In other words, we are all recessive now:
Comrade Janosik writes:
The economic depression will only be surpassed by the emotional depression when the born and bred dopes realize what they let happen; when, starting with Reagan, they voted themselves short term wealth from the public trust and turned a blind eye to what the crooks did with the rest.
Comrade Janosik | 01.29.09 - 12:52 pm |
Bob Dobbs writes:
They looked like they were from Mars compared to everybody else.
Bob Dobbs
.
Maybe they are. Cue scary sci-fi music.
scone | 01.29.09 - 1:06 pm | #
You ever see John Carpenter's pulp paranoia opus, "They Live"? Alien corporate scum taking over the planet while masquerading as human yuppies? Like that.
Bob Dobbs
.
I can't watch Carpenter without Depends.
If notes/bonds continue to drop in price there will be a lot of unhappy companies that were "well-capitalized" because their USG bond positions had risen in value while their MBS positions had been destroyed.
@Energy Econ - here's a good file link on that infrastructure topic. I've mentioned this one before: Oil & Gas Rust
"well-capitalized" because their USG bond positions had risen in value while their MBS positions had been destroyed.
Ponyless in NJ
Can you say China?
If notes/bonds continue to drop in price there will be a lot of unhappy companies that were "well-capitalized" because their USG bond positions had risen in value while their MBS positions had been destroyed.
November and December in reverse. Think insurance companies?
Texahoma
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 1:11 pm | #
Oklahoma. The Texas Canada
Anonymous, I was thinking more like the insurance companies like HIG.
anybody got a million bucks to lend me?
my kids are good for it
A Layoff in the Smith Family Ripples Through Town - WSJ.com
WSJ
A Layoff in the Smith Family Ripples Through Town (Dallas area)
peAk writes: If it's a Japanese zero it leads to an 18 year bottom.
In other words, this bottom may be the abyssal plane, a long vast expanse of flatness until we reach the great drop off the continental shelf and eventually the great rift where molten things bubble to the surface.
bgates?
I know it was mostly snarky, but I assure you that I'm well aware of this cultures ahistorical approach to reasoning.
I wonder if it's a symptom of not wanting your own history to be remembered.
Anonymous, I was thinking more like the insurance companies like HIG.
Ponyless in NJ
Obama just hired their legal counsel, CFO, CEO or something to be his economic chief legal. HIG will be fine
McCain of course. Particularly McCain 2000. Palin eptomizes everything that is wrong with the Republican party. All talk, no walk. McCain being painted as a "rebel" or "maverick" is absured. He has remained, old school, Rebublician for decades and it is only the asinine direction the party took in 1980 that he has rebelled against. He and HW were "real" Republicans. Not the RINOs we have today.
Blackhalo | 01.29.09 - 1:21 pm |
There are things I like about MC C but he is far from my ideal guy. Both Palin and McC where better of the choices. I truly did not like any of the candidates the had to much baggage or inexperience. Not one hit me with that's my guy. This is the reason I am a drift and not a real Republican any more. I dare say if I stated I liked Reagan the board would go nuts. He changed me from conservative liberal, when I was a Californian and he was Gov. Both parties do not represent what they did when I was a kid growing up. Thanks for the reply.
jefff writes:
"which begs the question of why even bothering with the private intermediaries?"
Because bankers can take their cut then make campaign contributions.
The private student loan program is a boondoggle. Does the same thing the government does for more money with more corruption less reliably.
jefff | 01.29.09 - 1:24 pm | #
yes and its nice to know that while others suffer wall street-ers still get "their" bonus, even if said bonus is paid by the pawns
What Red Ink? Wall St. Paid Hefty Bonuses - NY Times
I was looking at the graph and I noticed that the last trough to peak to trough looks like a hand waving goodbye.
First there was the War to End All Wars. After the second one they renamed the first one. In the same way, first there was the Great Depression. Now they are going to have to rename it Great Depression I. This one will be called Great Depression II.
from the article cited above
"Despite crippling losses, multibillion-dollar bailouts and the passing of some of the most prominent names in the business, employees at financial companies in New York, the now-diminished world capital of capital, collected an estimated $18.4 billion in bonuses for the year.
That was the sixth-largest haul on record, according to a report released Wednesday by the New York State comptroller....
"Honorable pilots of the Kamikaze Air Force,
Today you will fly high into the sky,
Seek out the Yankee aircraft carrier,
Come down,
Very fast,
And crash into the deck, killing yourself,
And all aboard.
Now before we proceed with the ceremonial sake toast, are there any questions?"
This makes me draw the inescapable solution: "we need more states".
Kaputilatio
Denial isn't just in the housing/equities markets:
Driving down the street today saw a for sale sign on a Lexus SUV
03, 103k miles
$20,000/OBO
OBO should be 25%
--
From prior thread
Jas, You are still in treasuries? Thanks
REBear,
YES. I was partially hedged, delta of 0.3-0.5, when long bond futures hit 135 (they peaked just below 142). Right now my hedge is close to neutral. I am short a ton of Jun 142 Calls and 115 Puts (strangle). I have made very good money on these as I lost in my long STRIPS. I have been net long for years and plan to remain net long at least until 2010 and likely up to 2012.
Some of us do understand the economy and investments based on the current economy. The problem with born-and-bred American dopes is that they dont admit when they have been proven wrong about their economic outlook, especially, the inflation outlook. DEFLATIONARY DEPRESSION DEAD AHEAD!
Long gold and Treasuries and short the Scam Market (temporarily out of Swiss since 100 last year),
Jas
"That was the sixth-largest haul on record"
why rob banks? that's where the money is
This makes me draw the inescapable solution: "we need more states".
\t Gavshire Hathaway | \t \t \t \t01.29.09 - 1:34 pm | #
Time to dust off Manifest Destiny again? Oh wait, we've been doing that lately; didn't work out so well.
But its just all taking way too long...
Bonanza | 01.29.09 - 1:21 pm | #
Japanise water torture? That is what happens when you try to stop the crash. You end up just prolonging the misery. Far better to reach bottom as quickly as possible, and THEN stimulate the economy.
There are a buch of zombie banks, autos and unions that need to clear out before any real revovery can take place.
Here's something that is OT (maybe not in the minds of some though).
Advertising in Children of Men - short YouTube
This makes me draw the inescapable solution: "we need more states".
Gavshire Hathaway | 01.29.09 - 1:34 pm | #
I thought Rob Dawg was already working on that for California? Or would adding more there simply add insult to injury?
We have now reached the Do Long Bridge of the economy- a lot of graphs are starting to hit the 81/82 bottoms and crashing through...
YouTube - Apocalypse Now Do Long Bridge
We still have to go all the way up the river, and then we get to come out of this, but first we have to go all the way.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Its fun to watch them try to keep up with the half hour market swings with their headlines.
Comrade Tech Sargent Chen | 01.29.09 - 1:21 pm | #
...bouncing off the day's low...
"and 115 Puts"
sounds like if this current slide in treasuries extends, you might have some leakage to address.
in the mean time, glad I've been in the TBT CR knucklehead club through 2009
why rob banks? that's where the money is
elmer fudd
.
Not anymore.
I think the idea might be that the Fed will not allow the treasuries to slide down that far..
Fuck USA, bunch of pessimistic weenies anyway
Meanwhile in Sweden, Konjunkturinstitutet issued the Swedish economic activity index for December, it rose from November 69.6 to 71.7 (Normal is 100+-10)! That is like rising from dirty fubar to shaved and showered fubar!
The New Beginning starts from Sweden!
"I wonder if it's a symptom of not wanting your own history to be remembered."
naw, just a somewhat stupid form of optimism.
Irvine, CA is probably the best place in the country to experience this mindset. It really is a kind of Jerusalem of American culture.
still, it might be better than having an identity based on endless centuries of grievances against moravians, bohemians, austrians, magyars, germans, russians, poles, yanks, etc etc
I'm away for a morning and come back to find loads of distressing news. Can't I trust you guys for even a few hours? [irony].
Every day seems worse than the day before. Where is this all headed?
Kamikaze. I think the Japanese term was 'sho'. Is that correct? The Japanese realized that they were outmatched in every sphere of operations. An admiral, can't recall his name, convinced the Imperial General Staff, though it was extremely reluctant, to authorize suicide missions against the US fleet off the Philippines, as a last resort. The Imperial Navy was to be sacrificed, since it was doomed at any rate.
"bunch of pessimistic weenies anyway "
sure thing, supa, just keep listening to those classic 80s american tunes - something about the sunny sentiments of that reagan-era dreck really appeals, doesn't it?
Remember the days when DOW 8200 was a floor and not a ceiling?
Those were the days....
Welcome to the Little Depression.
It doesn't need to be nearly as deep or prolonged as the Great Depression to cause massive societal upheaval. We've grown fat and lazy over the decades, and I suspect it will soon become apparent that things don't always get better. In fact, they can get much, much worse.
Jas,
I understand the deflationary forces behind your case.
What will make you abandon your long treasuries bias?
1) Devaluation of USD like in 34 or 85-87.
2) Long bond crash due to lack of real buyers. If BB is the only real buyer, won't it lead to devaluation of USD?
IOW, What is your nightmare scenario?
WASHINGTON (AP) - A small but growing number of community banks are backing out of the governments bailout, which they see as fraught with hidden strings and government interference. ¶
\tAbout 20 banks so far that applied for or had been approved to receive about $1 billion combined in taxpayer money have reversed course in the past month and refused to take the money. Thats just a fraction of the hundreds of billions of dollars the government already has spent, but it shows that taxpayers arent the only ones anxious about the financial bailout. ¶
\tThe governments going to own a good portion of these banks, said David Heintzman, president of Stock Yards Bank & Trust in Louisville, Ky. The bank recently turned down $43 million in approved bailout money. ¶
\tAfter Congress approved the $700 billion bailout in October, the government gave banks only a few weeks to decide whether they wanted to take part in the government investment program. Many applied to get a foot in the door, in case predictions of an economic collapse came true. ¶
\tWe drank the Kool-Aid, said Michael Ross, president of Fidelity Bank in Dearborn, Mich., which applied for about $29 million in November. ¶
\tBut as details emerged, the deal didnt look so good. For Fidelity, taking the money would mean the government would have owned about 25 percent of the companys outstanding stock. Then Congress and the White House could start calling the shots, Ross said. He remembers the governments failure overseeing Freddie Mac and its sister company, Fannie Mae, the two housing companies so badly mismanaged they were taken over by the Bush administration. ¶
\tThese are the guys who brought you Hurricane Katrina. These are the guys who were supposed to be watching Fannie and Freddie, Ross said. Ive not seen anything like this, where they really are talking about nationalizing banks. ¶
\tMuch of the criticism about the bailout has focused on the lack of oversight, which allowed banks to take money and refuse to say where its going. Wall Street executives, who make millions of dollars and enjoy lavish perks like private jets, earned the ire of consumer watchdogs who said taxpayers were getting a raw deal. ¶
\tBut some community banks, which had little or nothing to do with the subprime mortgage crisis, say the deal didnt look great for them, either. ¶
\tCongress wants banks to make loans, so businesses can expand and people can start buying houses again. But lawmakers also want them to make only trustworthy loans. But there are only so many good loans to make in a weak economy with high unemployment. ¶
\tExplaining that to investors is easy. To politicians, it might looks like youre hoarding taxpayer money. ¶
\tThen what? Then they have a guy at our board meeting? said William Campbell, president of Pamrapo Savings Bank, a Bayonne, N.J., bank that walked away from its $11 million bailout application. ¶
\tThe government also can force banks to cut dividends to shareholders, making a banks stock less attractive to investors. President Barack Obama has said he wants to prohibit banks from buying other banks. And at any time, Congress can change the law and add new terms. ¶
\tAre you going to enter into a contract that will cost you millions of dollars if you cant live with the rules and you dont even know what the rules are? said Steve Buster, CEO of Richmond, Calif.-based Mechanics Bank, which refused $60 million in bailout money. I dont know of any other forum that parties can change the contract at will. This is not fair. ¶
\tThe banks that turned down the money said they were comfortable their own finances will allow them to weather the storm. For some, taking the money seemed riskier than turning it down. ¶
\tWe finally said, Hey do we really want to go down this path? said Michael Blodnick, chief executive of Glacier Bancorp of Kalispell, Mont. I understand a lot of banks do, and a lot of banks need to. ¶
main street bleeds, while wall street and washington squabble over corporate jet purchases and the values synthetic derivatives.
I'm not sure why Alaska is included on this survey. There is no activity in December.
The markets down 200. Why so much partisan sniping and drive-by keyboard iviscerations today? Normally that only happens on Up days on this blog.
mattdog wrote
"Honorable pilots of the Kamikaze Air Force,
Today you will fly high into the sky,
Seek out the Yankee aircraft carrier,
Come down,
Very fast,
And crash into the deck, killing yourself,
And all aboard.
Now before we proceed with the ceremonial sake toast, are there any questions?"
mattdog | 01.29.09 - 1:34 pm |
honorable general sir
ah yes quassi motto, you in the back row
general sir , you outta you f#^&ing mind!
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in the beginning of this bear market, a lot of the shorting of financials was done by smallish hedge funds (e.g. lahde, einhorn). it is now my belief that the bondholders (or their surrogates) are making a run on the bank common to force the USG to backstop the bank's bondholders. Witness the collapse of AIG, C, BAC, RBS, etc and the bailouts that ensued. the road map for the bondholders has been laid out.
if the bad bank is still in float stage, a run on JPM will force the government's hands.
"Normally that only happens on Up days on this blog."
true, all of the CR groupthink plays are fairly spectacular today. cranky pants would indeed be mysterious. maybe it is the whole real-economy-out-there factor.
Pavel Chichikov writes:
I'm away for a morning and come back to find loads of distressing news. Can't I trust you guys for even a few hours? [irony].
Every day seems worse than the day before. Where is this all headed?
.
"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a Heaven of Hell, a Hell of Heaven. what matter where, if I be still the same, and what I should be, all but less than he whom thunder hath made greater?
Here at least we shall be free; th' Almighty hath not built here for his envy, will not drive us hence: Here we may reign secure; and, in my choice, to reign is worth ambition, though in Hell: better to reign in Hell than serve in Heaven."
It doesn't need to be nearly as deep or prolonged as the Great Depression to cause massive societal upheaval. We've grown fat and lazy over the decades, and I suspect it will soon become apparent that things don't always get better. In fact, they can get much, much worse.
Anonymous | 01.29.09 - 1:46 pm | #
I hate replying to someone with no name, much less agreeing with that person, but that is exactly the way I think this situation will develop.
Or, as I've said, today's Americans aren't going to suffer stoically and try to plant potatoes in the back yard.
More than a million public sector workers in France staged a massive strike on Thursday to protest President Nicolas Sarkozy's handling of the economic crisis
and this coming from workers who IIFC get 7 weeks paid vacation, free healthcare, paid retirement.
Barley | 01.29.09 - 1:25 pm | #
You confuse cause and effect. The reason they have such benefits is their willingness to raise hell. The last times US workers defended themselves was the union movement of the 1930's and (for different reasons) the civil rights movement of the 60's. Both were periods of civil unrest and violence. The next occurence is about 10 years overdue.
American workers are wussies.
Jim
Here in Minnesota our governor has a plan to pull us out of the red. According to Gov.Pawlenty the solution to our $4.5 billion shortfall and the declining economy is to halve corporate taxes and make up the difference by cutting benefits to people who are so disabled that they can't complain. Pawlenty is sure that this will bring a big influx of businesses into MN and pull us back from the precipice.
Do Long Bridge: "You're in the a**hole of the world, Captain".
Yeah, we are. So tragic it is twisted funny.
Have we ever had a recession where each and every state showed a decline in economic activity? "Worst since 1982" or "Worst since the Great Depression" doesn't really seem to be cutting it, anymore.
\t Jake in Milwaukee | \t \t \t \t01.29.09 - 12:32 pm |
Jake in Milwaukee | 01.29.09 - 12:32 pm | #
If the global map showed this proportion of countries this red, what would we call it?
American workers are wussies.
NC Jim | 01.29.09 - 1:51 pm | #
"Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life son."
Glod is on a tear today
It is really going to be a depression only when an American and a Russian go together drinking and two hours later the Russian runs away shouting "I just can't stand you anymore! All doom&gloom, all the time! Get A LIFE, you loser!"
Two questions from someone who's not a macroeconomist:
Thanks!
Someone will come to the rescue. I just know it!
In the 1930's, the term "Depression" was an attempt to put a positve spin on. Prior to then the term "Panic" was used to describe similar events
Gold: +15 . Not quite a tear..
Maybe somebody is afraid the Fed will monetize if the bonds drop too far.
Willard: Hey soldier, do you know whose in command here?
Soldier: Ain't you?
Maybe we could get a remix of the Jimmy Hendrix classic and call it "Panic Depression"..
Well, Louisiana, North Dakota, and Wyoming aren't getting hit as hard. Thank goodness for frozen shrimp. That's what'l get us back on track.
As for the 'recovery' plan, Sherrod Brown and company will sink our trade relations with their "Buy America" provisions... I have direct experience with Buy America. It hits municipalities and states and their local taxpayers with much higher costs to benefit a steelmaker in some Congressman's district far from home and any port.
Senator wants Web to check agencies' domestic buys -- Federal Computer Week
Ponyless in NJ | 01.29.09 - 1:58 pm | #
The dollar is stronger against other currencies atm, and other commodities are largely declining in price - while the magnitude is limited, it sure can be seen as a shot across the bow...
"Maybe we could get a remix"
listening to jimi last night - that tune is a great waltz. all of his first album contains amazing writing.
"Louisiana, North Dakota, and Wyoming"
a delayed reaction to the commodity fizzle, IMO.
It's no coincidence that the Lindbergh baby kidnapping case caught the public's imagination in 1932. It was about money.
mp: If you're still out there...if you & Monk Conjure leave, who will chronicle the end times. We need the epic recorded & hidden in the mountain cave for the future.
Bowie, live in NY, "Panic in Detroit."
YouTube
- Panic in Detroit-David Bowie
2. Completely unrelated - where's a good part of the country to look at buying a piece of land to live off-grid? No - I'm not an end-of-the-world worst-case scenario expecting nut. I just really want to quit the big city and live the rest of my life in quieter surroundings, independent of what happens around me.
Thanks!
\t Confused_inNY
Confused_inNY | 01.29.09 - 1:55 pm | #
Northeastern Arizona ain't bad; just right summers, coldish winters, can plant almost anything. Tons of sun and constant wind don't have to drill too deep for water.
Polite neighbors, lots of federal land to limit development, basically anything on the Colorado plateau. A couple of hours to the big cities, lakes, skiing and an international airport.
Is the economy weak or something?
I hate replying to someone with no name, much less agreeing with that person, but that is exactly the way I think this situation will develop. Or, as I've said, today's Americans aren't going to suffer stoically and try to plant potatoes in the back yard.
sportsfan | 01.29.09 - 1:51 pm | #
Sorry, cleared some kind of cache in my browser... didn't intend to post anonymously (though I guess the ztexas handle that I've been using is effectively anonymous other than indicating my locale).
You are correct... stoicism is not the hallmark of the 2008 model American (or Canadian, or 'Westerner', for that matter).
I'm pretty 'soft' myself, though I can see what's coming, and I'm making some of the necessary preparations. Just today, I bought some PVC pipe and dessicant for the purposes of burying cash in the backyard
It was about money.
1 currency sooner [yogi] | 01.29.09 - 2:03 pm | #
I was thinking the same thing.
TBT up 3.75% today.
Message to Ben:
It's almost worth the Great Depression to learn how little our big men know. - Will Rogers
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins
If only you could have lived my last week- up until yesterday, there literally was nobody much in charge of the state where I live...but I can't tell tales out of school.
Someday this war's gonna end...
almost forgot to mention... guess what was in the lobby of my local WFC last night?
that's right, a big stuffed PONY! I don't know if it was stuffed with some kind of poly blend or wachovia shares...
The first album is great but his live performances from 1970 are beyond description.
Anon writes:
We've grown fat and lazy over the decades, and I suspect it will soon become apparent that things don't always get better. In fact, they can get much, much worse.
There's no guarantee that things will get better. But they never do get better without becoming much, much worse first. We need to be sufficiently uncomfortable in order to change.
I also don't get that today's Americans can't necessarily handle what has to happen. Given some hope and a clear direction, and the zeitgeist can turn on a dime. Bush had a bit of that, but his direction was off a cilff.
Congress wants banks to lend? Hell, why not have the Fed just lend directly to us? They are already buying our CC debt and our mortgages.
I think somebody floated the idea of having a USG CC. That maybe possible after all.
where's a good part of the country to look at buying a piece of land to live off-grid? No - I'm not an end-of-the-world worst-case scenario expecting nut. I just really want to quit the big city and live the rest of my life in quieter surroundings, independent of what happens around me.
Thanks!
Confused_inNY | 01.29.09 - 1:55 pm | #
depends on your preferences doesnt it!
the west coast from brookings oregon all the way north to cape flattery washington has mild but wet weather year round
easy to stay warm, plenty of wood for a home, water never a problem,. no worry about firestorms So Cal fires, and a half stupid man can live off the fish and clams to be found all round.
however you are more likely to rust than tan in this environment!
American workers are wussies.
Jim
\t NC Jim | \t \t \t \t01.29.09 - 1:51 pm | #
It seems to me that the majority of natural-born Americans really have it stacked against them. First, they are taught to believe in the religion of America, that this is the "greatest place on earth." Then, they are taken to places of worship, indoctrinated with the idea that "faith" leads to salvation. The unholy alliance of the fundamentalist christians and the fundamentalist America-worshippers has produced a society that doesn't question. If they don't succeed, it's because of a lack of faith in the American system, because by golly there couldn't be anything wrong with the system itself! Those few that manage to see through it have turned to gaming the system, something even uglier to watch.
listening to jimi last night - that tune is a great waltz. all of his first album contains amazing writing.
bgates
When the time comes, I will blast Jimmi's Star Spangled banner at the exact time he played it at Woodstock (8:05 am?) and frighten all my neighbors
"The first album is great but his live performances from 1970 are beyond description."
yeah, i was listening to disc 2 of 'essential' for the hundredth time, which is mostly post-EL singles.
funny how he brought mitchell back in on drums for 'stepping stone' after already recording with buddy guy.
New Thread: Regulator to Bank: Find Buyer or Else ( 2 comments )
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that's right, a big stuffed PONY! I don't know if it was stuffed with some kind of poly blend or wachovia shares...
bgates
We all know ponies are stuffed with skittles...
What Airwolf Ben & Co. said:
Proposals of direct grants are out there. This is what Morgan Stanley told Congress at a hearing on January 15:
Last, policymakers should adopt the most direct, fast-acting traditional fiscal policy tools. We favor two options: A payroll tax holiday or a sizeable cut in payroll taxes, and grants to state and local governments. For example, a six-month suspension of the payroll tax would quickly inject US$425 billion into the economy. It would provide a boost to discretionary spending for lower-income workers who have the highest propensity to spend. In addition, cutting payroll taxes would reduce the cost of labor for employers, which, in turn, should help to stem the pace of job loss and shore up profitability. Grants to state and local governments would immediately forestall cuts in needed services, especially if they boost temporarily the share of Medicaid borne by the Federal government.
Why no press or movement on these ideas??
If the global map showed this proportion of countries this red, what would we call it?
Joanna | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 1:54 pm | #
Mars.
YouTube - Obama Claims He's Visited 57 States
According to Obama there are 57 states. So there must be some green out there...
~SoCal Hell
"...if I be still the same, and what I should be, all but less than he whom thunder hath made greater? "
FAITH
Souls, I saw a mighty host
In some immense arena, swarm
That from a distance seemed as dust,
No eyes, no features and no form
I saw a great gale move the dust,
Billows rose and spread, a mass
Of speckled darkness air dispersed -
O dust how quickly dust can pass
The cloud dissolved, immense the sky
That held suspension of these grains,
Faith believes that dust can die
Can weep for sorrow, suffer pain
And faith can also still confess
The scattered dust may coalesce
\t\t\t\tPavel
\t\t\t\tJanuary 29, 2009
jimi, yeah
my fav (lately...changes every month or two!) "machine gun" off the album "band of gypsies", the lead guitar lunges at you right out of the battle field
You mean Buddy Miles. Check out the Experience Hendrix Project releases, available on vinyl. (Company run by evil step-sister, but never mind).
Almost anything live from 1970 is untouchable.
"Then, they are taken to places of worship"
yes, the creationist component (45% by recent pew polls) is indeed toxic.
still, it is the greatest country on earth if only in its physical bounty, while the legacy of the constitution is indeed divine, especially if we can remove the post-TR defacement of it. Encouraging the secession of the 95 corridor, rust belt and Texas also wouldn't be a bad idea.
"Buddy Miles"
yes i do, thank you. I always forget the bassist in BoG, too.
machine gun
outstanding video
if you are a hendrix fan i promise you wont be disappointed
from the filmore east news years eve 1970 i think
YouTube -
Pavel,
While the kamikaze movement had many fathers, I believe the consensus opinion credits VAdm Onishi Takijiro with their initiation in the Phillipines during 1944. "Sho", I believe, means "Victory".
The quotation, in any case, is from Cheech and Chong. The response is:
"Honorable General, Sir,
Are you out of your fucking mind?"
Please forgive me; I have had far too much coffee this morning.
best part is lead half way thru
play it loud
Billy Cox, his army buddy.
play it loud
mock turtle | 01.29.09 - 2:16 pm | #
Is there a choice?
Gnu thread
still, it is the greatest country on earth if only in its physical bounty, while the legacy of the constitution is indeed divine, especially if we can remove the post-TR defacement of it. Encouraging the secession of the 95 corridor, rust belt and Texas also wouldn't be a bad idea.
\t bgates | \t \t \t \t01.29.09 - 2:13 pm | #
The greatest place on earth is no one physical place. It is wherever one can be contented together with those important to them. Some will find these places in many places throughout the world, others will never find it, especially those tied down to the idea of a physical "greatest place on earth."
Confused_inNY writes:
where's a good part of the country to look at buying a piece of land to live off-grid?
You will need a propane fridge, air tight wood burner, Aladdin lamps, generator, a chain saw and lots of tools. For that lifestyle the Gulf Islands are good; in which case, add a 17' boat to the list, and an extra battery. You should be able to get in for about 200,000...or 100K in 2010
--
Two questions from someone who's not a macroeconomist: 1. Jas, you stated (in an earlier thread) that Fed actions were not "printing money". Is this because the manner in which the Fed works - Treasury purchases are funded simply by accounting maneuvers, and the Treasury in turn, purchases things like bad bank debt - also via accounting maneuvers i.e. there is an increase in the Fed's balance sheet to match the hole in the economy's but there is no "cash" printed. 2. Completely unrelated - where's a good part of the country to look at buying a piece of land to live off-grid? No - I'm not an end-of-the-world worst-case scenario expecting nut. I just really want to quit the big city and live the rest of my life in quieter surroundings, independent of what happens around me. Thanks!
Confused_inNY,
Best of luck.
Jas
Isn't it time for a States Most Likely to Suffer Index?
Or some kind of informed forecast about what would be the best and worst places to live in the next 5 years.
KR, Jas, Comrade Alexei,
Thanks for the replies - appreciate it!
I happened across this today, for some reason "Conjure's Clocks" popped into my mind...Dali, ever relevant.
The Persistence of Memory, c.1931 Posters by Salvador Dalí at AllPosters.com
forgot link
Off topic, but: what's the deal with the lack of US press coverage of European demonstrations related to the economy? Iceland, Latvia... OK, not big countries. But France?
Have they been told to not publicize this stuff?
--
US Treasuries...
With all my flaws, and I have many, I have a very good knack of seeing trouble 18-36 months ahead of time. This also applies to my view on inflation and the US Treasuries. I believe in being early, and pay some price, than being late. Being late is for dopes.
Jas
Have they been told to not publicize this stuff?
\t wally | \t \t \t \t01.29.09 - 2:31 pm | #
It seems the rantings of some governor from Illinois is more important than hundreds of thousands of French marching in protest. Weird, isn't it?
Being late is for dopes.
That's a good line.
mock_turtle - thanks. I'm leaning towards warmer weather in any case
Mock @2:07pm
Actually, water is a problem in western OR--at least on the north central coast. Some of the groundwater near the coast isn't much good (too much Fe, etc.) and while it may rain hard during the winter (it's been sort of deluge or below average this fall/winter), there's usually 3-4 months with almost no rain at all during the summer. The people who live 10-20 miles inland routinely report seeing their springs run low by August, i.e., their water supply gets low. Many people try to buy huge water tanks that are placed downhill from the water source that fill at night so they can water their gardens & fruit trees & berries.
Lack of water is probably one of the few roadblocks in the way of massive residential/"resort" development of private timber land (which the timber co., such as Plum Creek would love & pushed for).
As for fire: every summer, burn restrictions are put in place by July by most of the coastal cities (i.e., you can't burn trash, yard waste, etc., within city limits) and usually this county does too. By August--at the latest--fire hazard in the Siuslaw National forest (and probably some others, but I'm most familiar with the Siuslaw)in western OR frequently is so high that fires are banned outside of campgrounds w/fire circles and often there are "hoot owl" restrictions on logging.
On average, LI, NY, (where I grew up) gets greater annual precipitation than western OR does, plus it tends to rain during the summer on LI, which is does very little of, at least on the north central coast and inland towards the coast range. When I lived in Eugene (Willamette valley), I used to see huge irrigation apparatus being used all summer.
On the north central coast, the cool temperatures makes growing anything but cool weather crops (lettuce, cole crops, etc.) difficult--you have to compensate for the cool nights, etc. Berries do ok. Four or five miles inland, there's much better gardening/growing conditions (also better for fruit like plums & apples), but even so, the growing season for crops like corn, melons & peppers is very short. If you have a greenhouse. southern exposure & good supply of water, you can probably garden/produce some veg, all year 'round.
Most of the agriculture along the coast was dairy. Some fruit, like apples. On the southern coast, cranberries are grown commercially.
We white collar trailer trash depressives should plan for a party this coming friday. Won't we get some new GDP figures then? What to serve? What entertainment to choose? How about Steel Reserve and beans over Spam? Can someone design a WII game around the red states map?
If only you could have lived my last week- up until yesterday, there literally was nobody much in charge of the state where I live...but I can't tell tales out of school.
Citizen AllenM | 01.29.09 - 2:04 pm | #
Iceland? Illinois?
Have they been told to not publicize this stuff?
wally | 01.29.09 - 2:31 pm | #
Civil unrest does not benifit the ruling class. The top 1% are very protective of thier gains.
"Printing" credit and printing money are not all that different. Both credit and "money" can be abused to buy cars, houses, and securities.
I think we can safely say the recession is contained to only 50 states.
Beddict and Bugg, PLC | 01.29.09 - 12:51 pm | #
And 178 Nation States
It could be broken if we add more states ...
I bet when they added the new data Excel added a -5 tick to the Y-axis forcing them to manually set the scale.