Right about noe the Fed is running the projections on the 10 & 30 yr and making a phone call to the oval offic; "Uhhhh, Barry? Uhhh, sorry but you ain't gettin' your $819b. No way, no how. What's your Plan 'B'?"
Right about noe the Fed is running the projections on the 10 & 30 yr and making a phone call to the oval offic; "Uhhhh, Barry? Uhhh, sorry but you ain't gettin' your $819b. No way, no how. Rob Dawg | 01.29.09 - 9:18 pm | #
Far preferable to getting it and then having the rates go up when we roll it.
What makes you think they wouldn't borrow the money just because the interest rate goes up? I don't recall interest rates in the teens during the early 1980s having much impact on spending choices.
--
Indicators are making progress and the economy keeps sinking. Must be bad indicators! Economists are notorious for relying on bad indicators and bad estimates that bear no resemblance to the facts on the ground.
My indicators are American People, both in power and with no power. I see no improvement there. Prolonged misery for the masses and threat to the power, or life, of those in power would be necessary to see any change. We have a long ways to go.
when is conjure's next paper coming out? Misha | 01.29.09 - 9:19 pm | #
When mp has things well in hand. That is, I think he's devoting his energy into making sure his family is going to ride out the current depression, and if he sees a way out of the mess he's morally and ethically bound to come back and tell us.
You are correct in pointing out that our leaders are evil, but they are not as clever as you would like to believe. They are too saturated with hubris to see their limits.
<i>"Uhhhh, Barry? Uhhh, sorry but you ain't gettin' your $819b. No way, no how. What's your Plan 'B'?"</i> \t Rob Dawg | \t \t \t \t01.29.09 - 9:18 pm |
Strip everyting out of the economic stimulus legislation that was added to appease Republicans in a bipartisan spirit. Tell Republicans to go fuck themselves because this will be an all out war between the American economy and the Republican Party
Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Japan headed for its worst postwar recession in December as factory output slumped an unprecedented 9.6 percent, unemployment surged and households cut spending.
The drop in production eclipsed the previous record of 8.5 percent set only a month earlier, the Trade Ministry said today in Tokyo. The jobless rate soared to 4.4 percent from 3.9 percent, the biggest jump in 41 years.
First, Is there anyone, anyone here with the bawls to try and claim "hoocoodanode?" After all how many people here were all but screaming this was going to happen and when?
p.s.: Dawg, mind if I give you a buzz sometime? Also, whazzup with that insane price next door to you?
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear)
I'm going to Jim the Realtor's 50th bday party this weekend but sure, I'm open. The neighbor is a very nice elderly couple with a friendly listing agent glad to indulge their wishing price. IMHO, too many digits in this market.
Man, mp & Conjure leaving, me still on the edge, all the olde HBB names gone. The world changes and the blogosphere changes with it. Contact me any time.
And that's why you--collectively speaking--won't be hearing much from Conjure and me.
mp "
I hope you won't desert us completely. There are a number of posters here who have taught me a great deal, as well as our generous hosts, and I have enjoyed and been grateful for your insights.
All my best wishes.
fried
what major change have you made, personally, to economize lately? Shnaps | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 9:25 pm | #
I'm doing home cooking. Not a huge change, had to take charge of dinner anyway because my wife is taking night classes, but the attitude is definitely to maximize our food budget. Finally learned how to make salsa mexicana and looking forward to gardening with an eye towards growing everything that goes into it.
"Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Japan headed for its worst postwar recession in December"
well, don't let the numbers fool you. The stagnation for over 10Y in the 90's is much more dangerous than anything they are facing so far.
At least they have less of politically connected dinosaurs running around then they used to. Wish it would be case for us too.
--
"what major change have you made, personally, to economize lately?"
I have increased my spending by 100-150%. Been to Lost Wages, New idea, twice this month already and at least once next month (reservations at MGM already made). I am doing more to help the economy than Bernanke has done. Some of us were best positioned for this fully forecastable crisis.
Has CR changed his mind about no severe recession yet? David Rosenberg, the best professional economist in the US, is already suggesting that we are in depression now.
Phil Gramm was right. It must be a mental recession. I just saw this yahoo news headline: "Chemical found in human brain causes locusts to swarm." Too scared to read the article.
Somehow I am not surprised that the MOST successful FED intervention lately is the direct purchase program of commercial paper.
Now helicopter B, please put two & two together and widen the program for longer term corporate debt.
I mean, common!!!
I don't think any country with too much of government intervention and over regulation will come up first. However in this particular case, I fear our hands are tightened down.
I have not reduced my MGM Grand expenditures. Which reminds me, was that you, Jas, that I saw you at the lions cage, taunting them with your grotesque gestures? If that big fella gets loose, he's gonna gnaw your head off.
pick up copy of recent Andrew Jackson biography ("American Lion")
contact Financial Services staffer for our senators
Eldest is taking honors US History I. I've instructed her for the next several months, the correct answer to any question she encounters is Andrew Jackson. Screw the grade.
I sure am sorry to see mp and Conjure leave. I will also miss Hoopajoops, crispy & cole as I have sorely missed CSC. The informed opinions, the jousting and the hilarity presented here has made me return to this site daily.
I have noticed, though, the last few days have been rather tense and nastier with some newer commenters and the annoying DB. I hope that has not contributed to these decision to leave.
My thanks to CR and this blog. I miss Tanta and her weekend megaposts.
I find this post very depressing. It shows you how you can doctor numbers in a way that makes everything appear just "fine" while the truth is that things are rotten to the core.
art writes:
I have noticed, though, the last few days have been rather tense and nastier with some newer commenters and the annoying DB. I hope that has not contributed to these decision to leave.
We are always like this when the S is getting ready to HTF.
back to contracting credit we go...how long before LIBOR climbs in response? Scott | 01.29.09 - 9:33 pm | #
Ah, that make sense. Paulson had his thumb on the scale. How well can we trust these indicators, they did not seem to have much influence with employers this week?
Why not higher rates? Someone comes to me for a mortgage. Risky item, that. So I want 40% down and 9%. Get government off our backs, instead of competing with the few, sane bankers left.
Latest Meredith Whitney - she sounds like she hangs out on this blog:
No Bad Bank Please
Talks of creating a bad bank are once again gaining momentum, and accordingly, we feel compelled to repeat and review our thoughts on the subject. In brief, simply removing toxic assets from bank balance sheets will not directly cause banks to increase lending. Lending standards have tightened dramatically, and there is an unavoidable restructuring of risk taking place. Such causes money to come out of the system and lending to contract, with or without this bad bank structure. Lower asset bases, higher credit losses, and bloated expense structures will continue to pressure banks earnings power and capital creation.
"The auction, which caps a week when the Treasury raised $78 billion in notes and bonds, may signal investors will have trouble absorbing the as-much-as $2.5 trillion in debt the U.S. is likely to issue this year "
WHERE DOES THE AUTHOR GET THE IDEA THAT THE FEDS WILL SELL $2.5 TRILLION IN DEBT THIS YEAR ????
THEY'RE JUST PRINTING THE GOD DAMN MONEY, YOU IDIOT!!! THERE'S NOT ENOUGH DEMAND IN THE WHOLE FRIGGIN' UNIVERSE FOR THAT MUCH MONEY IN BONDS!!!
I just saw this yahoo news headline: "Chemical found in human brain causes locusts to swarm." Too scared to read the article.
reptillian | 01.29.09 - 9:36 pm | #
They made a movie about that already It was pretty scary as a kid
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
What others have said about CRBot: Gary writes: This CRbot is pretty nifty. EvilHenryPaulson writes: CRBot is great on mobiles Loudocracy writes:
Thank god CRbot spared me from that dead thread. Hoopajoops writes: Posting a test message from the IRC Channel... THIS THING ROCKS
CRBot: Killing dead threads deader since last week.
They have a shrinking and saturated consumer base. Lucifer | 01.29.09 - 10:07 pm | #
Understood. My selection is based on the fack that Japan slid into reality long before anyone else and therefore should be the first to recover in my opinion. I suspect however, that it may be a while before we find out.
I'm somewhat tired and amused by these "retirements" from Calculated Risk. "Everything has happened already." Bullsh*t, things are just heating up. Those pretenders will be back. Waiting for food shortages gets old fast. You can let them know I said that.
The folks I have spoken to in my small town all know that things are going down. At dinner with friends tonight one of them once again said "and you kept telling us". Now they want to know what's next. I keep emphasizing that we are in a good place...small town, good water, gardens galore, etc. It is still not real to a lot of them, but we are all adjusting. The hub and I have prepared places for family and redone the entire plumbing system, we have piled up a lot of wood, we are accumulating tools, we know how to garden and put up food, the hub knows how to smoke meat, we are working on a better water storage and delivery system. We have guns (though I have been hesitant to rehearse this scenario). I just wish I were 20 years younger. Oh well. We are hanging in there, mp and conjure, and I assume you are too.
The article requested is no longer available. BRUSSELS, Belgium The European Union warned Thursday it would protest provisions in President Barack Obama's economic stimulus plan that favour U.S. steelmakers ahead of imports from Europe or China.
The U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday voted for a so-called "Buy America" provision that would call on major public works projects to favour U.S. steel over imports. The provision came despite objections from some business groups that such a measure would hamper free trade.
It looks like Harper might be growing a backbone now that Bush is gone, there is already talk of a NAFTA challenge. A lot of countries put up with steel, softwood, and other protectionism (ie Mexico was forced to accept toxic waste against local regulations for a landfill) from the USA while Bush literally refused to abide by NAFTA and WTO rulings.
These disputes take years upon years to make it through all the possible appeals, so there will be quick counter-tariffs as even politicians are anxious about preserving jobs
Not sure how far the protectionism goes. The US can eat a devaluation, but not if exports don't rise.
Misean. . . Hope you're not misunderstanding where I'm coming from... I fully believe there's a sh*tstorm a-comin'. I just don't think it's gonna be TEOTW. Hey, if it is... I'm ready. No debt, cash on hand, guns, ammo, gas in the tank.
Just trying to lighten things up a bit. Hell, even Denninger sounds like a pollyanna compared to the last few days here.
Oh, and thanks to mp, conjure c&c, etc. But mostly to our gracious host and (late) hostess. Best blog on the tubes!
Major Tom writes:
THEY'RE JUST PRINTING THE GOD DAMN MONEY, YOU IDIOT!!! THERE'S NOT ENOUGH DEMAND IN THE WHOLE FRIGGIN' UNIVERSE FOR THAT MUCH MONEY IN BONDS!!!
Calling Major Tom!!! Can you hear me?
The FED will buy unlimited amounts of Treasuries...That is all the damn money you need
I'm bearish but you armegeddon doomers need to get a life in a very big way. I'm serious. I'm concerned about you people. Water? Guns? Firewood? Good Lord some of you need to get a hold of yourselves.
The family lost most of its wealth through the worldwide depression when their bank failed in the early 1930s. Maria tightened belts all around by dismissing most of the servants and taking in boarders. It was around this time that they began considering making the family hobby of singing into a profession. Georg was reluctant for the family to perform in public, "but accepted it as God's will that they sing for others," daughter Eleonore said in a 1978 Washington Post interview. "It almost hurt him to have his family onstage, not from a snobbish view, but more from a protective one." As depicted in The Sound of Music, the family won first place in the Salzburg Music Festival in 1936 and became successful, singing Renaissance and Baroque music, madrigals, and folk songs all across Europe.
When the Nazis annexed Austria in 1938, the von Trapps realized that they were on thin ice with a regime they abhorred. Georg not only refused to fly the Nazi flag on their house, but he also declined a naval command and a request to sing at Hitler's birthday party. They were also becoming aware of the Nazis' anti-religious propaganda and policies, the pervasive fear that those around them could be acting as spies for the Nazis, and the brainwashing of children against their parents. They weighed staying in Austria and taking advantage of the enticements the Nazis were offeringgreater fame as a singing group, a medical doctor's position for Rupert, and a renewed naval career for Georgagainst leaving behind everything they knewtheir friends, family, estate, and all their possessions. They decided that they could not compromise their principles and left.
Jas, I understand your gripe, but you make a mistake that a lot of upset people make...they think that because something that is supposed to have a positive effect if it improves doesnt turn things around, that it is having no effect. I can pretty much assure you that if these indicators were as bad as they were before, or getting worse, that the bloodbath we are seeing in the real economy would be far worse than it already is.
WMBZ: Actually, we do have a life here. A great life. Lots of friends, sometimes too many parties. The hub and I have advanced degrees. We have chosen to live rural. When you live rural, you attend to the basics: water, gardens, firewood, how to do your own plumbing, construction, etc. (guns...not to my liking, but necessary, I guess). I grew up in a city and lived in them a good portion of my life. I would not like to live there now.
....good thinking, prairiedog. I wish I were younger going thru it as well. I think mp & conjure are correct in spending more time in preparation. More should do it as well. The affirmation that the people who know more than I in regards to economics see the need to prep - shows that maybe I've chosen the correct tack. I might rethink the "getting acquainted with my firearms" idea. Never hurts to be comfortable with them during use.
A very nice, astute poster who left about a week ago...felt blogging was too passive and had made his plans...
I am glad that EvilHenryPaulson has returned, and that elvis,rich, dryfly, eviltwin nova, you and lots of other posters are still here, as is our host, CR.
Since you all are both smarter and cooler than I am, I have no reason to leave. I might miss something.
Ave atque Vale, mp and Conjure
Former German chancellor condemns Britain and US for crisis |
Business |
guardian.co.uk
Veteran Schmidt's wisdom of the agesIgnorance, unconstrained greed, negligence Germany's former chancellor bluntly condemns Britain and the US for the global financial crisis
What we really need is a big bank that buys worthless securities on margin, because that's something we haven't tried before.
By these indicators, the Fed is making progress.
Looks to me like the Fed has been tampering with the odometer.
"Financial issuance accounted for almost all of the drop, falling $93.5 billion, or 12.7 percent, to $641.8 billion."
TARP Money.
Nostrovia,
Right about noe the Fed is running the projections on the 10 & 30 yr and making a phone call to the oval offic; "Uhhhh, Barry? Uhhh, sorry but you ain't gettin' your $819b. No way, no how. What's your Plan 'B'?"
blow on the magnetic stripe and swipe the card again... give it here, like this. There can't be insufficient funds, I don't even have a limit
when is conjure's next paper coming out?
Right about noe the Fed is running the projections on the 10 & 30 yr and making a phone call to the oval offic; "Uhhhh, Barry? Uhhh, sorry but you ain't gettin' your $819b. No way, no how.
Rob Dawg | 01.29.09 - 9:18 pm | #
Far preferable to getting it and then having the rates go up when we roll it.
"hollywood" roubini dances around the D word.
RGE - Interviews with Bloomberg Radio and TV: Roubini Worried About Risk of a `Near Depression'
Ask not what your bond can do for you, but what you can do for your bond.
What makes you think they wouldn't borrow the money just because the interest rate goes up? I don't recall interest rates in the teens during the early 1980s having much impact on spending choices.
--
Indicators are making progress and the economy keeps sinking. Must be bad indicators! Economists are notorious for relying on bad indicators and bad estimates that bear no resemblance to the facts on the ground.
My indicators are American People, both in power and with no power. I see no improvement there. Prolonged misery for the masses and threat to the power, or life, of those in power would be necessary to see any change. We have a long ways to go.
Jas
Dr. Frankenstein has lost control of his monster.
Reportedly Conjure's claws aren't good for typing. If mp says he's out, then there's no "next" anything for quite a while.
We wish them well, and will be thinking about'em all the time.
p.s.: Dawg, mind if I give you a buzz sometime? Also, whazzup with that insane price next door to you?
The fed should have never stepped in, they should have let the markets work this out, we would probably out of it by now ...
when is conjure's next paper coming out?
Misha | 01.29.09 - 9:19 pm | #
When mp has things well in hand. That is, I think he's devoting his energy into making sure his family is going to ride out the current depression, and if he sees a way out of the mess he's morally and ethically bound to come back and tell us.
Jas,
You are correct in pointing out that our leaders are evil, but they are not as clever as you would like to believe. They are too saturated with hubris to see their limits.
how's this for a 'credit crisis indicator'? - what major change have you made, personally, to economize lately?
I'll go first....I've switched from good Scotch to Dewars. And I canceled satellite. Buy the latter was much easier to do.
<i>"Uhhhh, Barry? Uhhh, sorry but you ain't gettin' your $819b. No way, no how. What's your Plan 'B'?"</i>
\t Rob Dawg | \t \t \t \t01.29.09 - 9:18 pm |
Strip everyting out of the economic stimulus legislation that was added to appease Republicans in a bipartisan spirit. Tell Republicans to go fuck themselves because this will be an all out war between the American economy and the Republican Party
OT-- interesting blog on Chinese economy. Quick summation, they are in recession too.
China Economy Watch
conjure/mp may you have fair winds and following seas.
They are too saturated with hubris to see their limits.
Lucifer | 01.29.09 - 9:25 pm | #
Reality's hit Wall Street; hopefully it'll come to DC someday soon, too.
I'm starting to feel like a broken record on this: the peak A2/P2 spread was 615 basis points, on 12/30/08.
Hubris kills those who cherish it. Yes, DC and every government in the world is going to have a rude awakening.
I went long another day. Now my portfolio is 30 bonds, 20 shorts, 5 long and rest in cash.
wish me luck,
Jas Jain writes:
Indicators are making progress and the economy keeps sinking. Must be bad indicators!
Funny. Very funny. Thank you
p.s. I actually made some $ last year, however I would easily trade those just to avoid seeing all of the mess on the street.
There can't be insufficient funds, I don't even have a limit
EvilHenryPaulson | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 9:19 pm | #
still have checks left, can't be overdraw
Indicators are making progress and the economy keeps sinking. Must be bad indicators!
take a name ass wipe | 01.29.09 - 9:29 pm | #
Just goes to show that the government knows exactly what they're doing when it comes to manipulating the indicators.
the world is ending. Naked German men are now invading Switzerland.
Switzerland slaps ban on menace of naked German ramblers - Times Online
Good bye MP and C&C good luck
Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Japan headed for its worst postwar recession in December as factory output slumped an unprecedented 9.6 percent, unemployment surged and households cut spending.
The drop in production eclipsed the previous record of 8.5 percent set only a month earlier, the Trade Ministry said today in Tokyo. The jobless rate soared to 4.4 percent from 3.9 percent, the biggest jump in 41 years.
First, Is there anyone, anyone here with the bawls to try and claim "hoocoodanode?" After all how many people here were all but screaming this was going to happen and when?
p.s.: Dawg, mind if I give you a buzz sometime? Also, whazzup with that insane price next door to you?
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear)
I'm going to Jim the Realtor's 50th bday party this weekend but sure, I'm open. The neighbor is a very nice elderly couple with a friendly listing agent glad to indulge their wishing price. IMHO, too many digits in this market.
Man, mp & Conjure leaving, me still on the edge, all the olde HBB names gone. The world changes and the blogosphere changes with it. Contact me any time.
And that's why you--collectively speaking--won't be hearing much from Conjure and me.
mp "
I hope you won't desert us completely. There are a number of posters here who have taught me a great deal, as well as our generous hosts, and I have enjoyed and been grateful for your insights.
All my best wishes.
fried
Hmmm...so TARP is all over, and back to contracting credit we go...how long before LIBOR climbs in response?
what major change have you made, personally, to economize lately?
Shnaps | Homepage | 01.29.09 - 9:25 pm | #
I'm doing home cooking. Not a huge change, had to take charge of dinner anyway because my wife is taking night classes, but the attitude is definitely to maximize our food budget. Finally learned how to make salsa mexicana and looking forward to gardening with an eye towards growing everything that goes into it.
The real question is- which G20 country will come out of this mess first?
"Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Japan headed for its worst postwar recession in December"
well, don't let the numbers fool you. The stagnation for over 10Y in the 90's is much more dangerous than anything they are facing so far.
At least they have less of politically connected dinosaurs running around then they used to. Wish it would be case for us too.
--
"what major change have you made, personally, to economize lately?"
I have increased my spending by 100-150%. Been to Lost Wages, New idea, twice this month already and at least once next month (reservations at MGM already made). I am doing more to help the economy than Bernanke has done. Some of us were best positioned for this fully forecastable crisis.
Has CR changed his mind about no severe recession yet? David Rosenberg, the best professional economist in the US, is already suggesting that we are in depression now.
Jas
Man, mp & Conjure leaving, me still on the edge, all the olde HBB names gone. The world changes and the blogosphere changes with it.
conjure and mp were top attractions.
Phil Gramm was right. It must be a mental recession. I just saw this yahoo news headline: "Chemical found in human brain causes locusts to swarm." Too scared to read the article.
"The real question is- which G20 country will come out of this mess first?"
that's a spirit! x 10.
I do not think any country with a large trade surplus or an aging/ below replacement birth rate will come out of this mess first.
Thanks to MP and the other contributors here. The end is very close, and I agree that it is now time to make contingency plans and weather the storm.
I am very intrigued about what MP and Conjure do in real life. I suspect far more than they let on here...
Good luck everyone in the coming days. I pray that you and your relatives will remain safe and be well cared for.
One thing is certain -- we all have a front row seat to history.
And special thanks to CR & Tanta for giving us this forum and imparting your wisdom. Your efforts are much appreciated!
Regards,
GH
Gavehire Hathway,
But the real movie has just started. The last 2 years were just trailers and teasers.
Somehow I am not surprised that the MOST successful FED intervention lately is the direct purchase program of commercial paper.
Now helicopter B, please put two & two together and widen the program for longer term corporate debt.
I mean, common!!!
Iceland to join EU:
Iceland to be fast-tracked into the EU |
World news |
The Guardian
I don't think any country with too much of government intervention and over regulation will come up first. However in this particular case, I fear our hands are tightened down.
Lucifer -- I agree. Unfortunately, I do not think it is a comedy.
The jury is out between Drama and Horror.
Fasten your seatbelts and get out the popcorn....
I have not reduced my MGM Grand expenditures. Which reminds me, was that you, Jas, that I saw you at the lions cage, taunting them with your grotesque gestures? If that big fella gets loose, he's gonna gnaw your head off.
Thread Music
Gavshire Hathaway writes:
The end is very close,
Like I was saying on the last thread. Depression, yes. Apocalypse, no.
I'm going to test out my theory soon by going to sleep and seeing if the world still exists for me to wake up in tomorrow.
The great majority of people who have ever lived faced problems worse than what we are going to be facing, bad as it will be.
Whoa. CR posted a chart-within-a-chart. Can a DecaChart be far behind?
So, this is good news.
"Never, in the course of human endeavor, have so few done so much for so many." - Winston Churchill
"Never, in the course of human endeavor, have so few done so much to so many." - Barack Obama
Oh come on for pity sake, turn that frown into a happy face!
multiple doings tomorrow (seriously).
Eldest is taking honors US History I. I've instructed her for the next several months, the correct answer to any question she encounters is Andrew Jackson. Screw the grade.
joe shmoe | 01.29.09 - 9:45 pm | #
I second your series of posts regarding the changes happening aren't apocalyptic. Just hard times.
whatya mean interest rates are moving higher?
higher rates are not possible to solve the current maelstrom.
I sure am sorry to see mp and Conjure leave. I will also miss Hoopajoops, crispy & cole as I have sorely missed CSC. The informed opinions, the jousting and the hilarity presented here has made me return to this site daily.
I have noticed, though, the last few days have been rather tense and nastier with some newer commenters and the annoying DB. I hope that has not contributed to these decision to leave.
My thanks to CR and this blog. I miss Tanta and her weekend megaposts.
higher rates are not possible to solve the current maelstrom.
not the real... | 01.29.09 - 9:52 pm | #
That's altogether different than saying they are not possible.
Higher interest rates are inevtiable with every country in the world doing massive deficit spending.
Would you people, PLEAZE, fucking remlax and have and chill out about the G L O O M!!!
I find this post very depressing. It shows you how you can doctor numbers in a way that makes everything appear just "fine" while the truth is that things are rotten to the core.
whatya mean interest rates are moving higher?
Who are you? Leader O making a late night call to Heli Ben?
art writes:
I have noticed, though, the last few days have been rather tense and nastier with some newer commenters and the annoying DB. I hope that has not contributed to these decision to leave.
We are always like this when the S is getting ready to HTF.
back to contracting credit we go...how long before LIBOR climbs in response?
Scott | 01.29.09 - 9:33 pm | #
Ah, that make sense. Paulson had his thumb on the scale. How well can we trust these indicators, they did not seem to have much influence with employers this week?
which G20 country will come out of this mess first?
Lucifer | 01.29.09 - 9:34 pm | #
I have got to go with Japan.
If everyone left what would happen?
"higher rates are not possible"
No they're unpossible.
Nostrovia,
Sweden is clearly drunk.
"I second your series of posts regarding the changes happening aren't apocalyptic. Just hard times."
Third. Here's a short video that I think sums up the attitude of the commentariat over the last few days. Enjoy!
YouTube - Zombies invade Austin, TX - KXAN Coverage
Why not higher rates? Someone comes to me for a mortgage. Risky item, that. So I want 40% down and 9%. Get government off our backs, instead of competing with the few, sane bankers left.
Can anyone say "dollar crisis"?
Latest Meredith Whitney - she sounds like she hangs out on this blog:
No Bad Bank Please
Talks of creating a bad bank are once again gaining momentum, and accordingly, we feel compelled to repeat and review our thoughts on the subject. In brief, simply removing toxic assets from bank balance sheets will not directly cause banks to increase lending. Lending standards have tightened dramatically, and there is an unavoidable restructuring of risk taking place. Such causes money to come out of the system and lending to contract, with or without this bad bank structure. Lower asset bases, higher credit losses, and bloated expense structures will continue to pressure banks earnings power and capital creation.
(Sorry, no link)
"The auction, which caps a week when the Treasury raised $78 billion in notes and bonds, may signal investors will have trouble absorbing the as-much-as $2.5 trillion in debt the U.S. is likely to issue this year "
WHERE DOES THE AUTHOR GET THE IDEA THAT THE FEDS WILL SELL $2.5 TRILLION IN DEBT THIS YEAR ????
THEY'RE JUST PRINTING THE GOD DAMN MONEY, YOU IDIOT!!! THERE'S NOT ENOUGH DEMAND IN THE WHOLE FRIGGIN' UNIVERSE FOR THAT MUCH MONEY IN BONDS!!!
No they're unpossible.
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope
Nope: unimpossible
Anybody want a wager that the 10 year UST will closer to 7.8 by September?
KW writes:
Can anyone say "dollar crisis"?
Yeah, but when and how?
blackhalo,
Japan, Germany and most of continental europe wil not be the first to recover.. They have a shrinking and saturated consumer base.
I just saw this yahoo news headline: "Chemical found in human brain causes locusts to swarm." Too scared to read the article.
reptillian | 01.29.09 - 9:36 pm | #
They made a movie about that already
It was pretty scary as a kid
Eccentric Cinema | QUATERMASS AND THE PIT
Oh come on for pity sake, turn that frown into a happy face!
Anonymous | 01.29.09 - 9:49 pm | #
Oh, please no Bobby McFarin!
just had a bedtime conversation with middle child: "if the banks want us to trust them with our money, why don't they trust us with their pen?"
What a lovely, cynical, out-of-the-box little mind.
Here we go dudes, an dudettes, the imminent end:
YouTube - Leonard Cohen - Everybody Knows
C
JBR,
What was that thing Obi-Wan said...Who's the bigger fool...The Fool, or the fool who follows him...
Nostrovia,
Hoopajoops and crispy & cole will be back..mp not so sure, cd not so sure
Support union labor.... it's the right thing to do.
higher rates are not possible to solve the current maelstrom.
not the real... | 01.29.09 - 9:52 pm | #
Sure they are. They will drive housing prices lower until they are affordable. Problem solved.
Support union labor.... it's the right thing to do.
WMBZ
funniest thing all day, thx
Barley,
+1
Nostrovia,
"Anybody want a wager"
apparently, at least a few do
Symbol Lookup from Yahoo! Finance
Sweden is clearly drunk.
ARW | 01.29.09 - 10:02 pm | #
Lucky bastard. I am very tempted to join him in that endeavor.
mp can't help himself. he'll be back lurking and something will come up and he'll just have to say something, or at least post through a sock puppet.
right? please?
c&c, cd and hoopajoops are gone, too?
crap.
Can anyone say "dollar crisis"?
KW | 01.29.09 - 10:06 pm | #
Yeah, where is Conjure's Dollar clock?
"I am very intrigued about what MP and Conjure do in real life. I suspect far more than they let on here..."
My guess MP = Mr. Practical, don't know about Conjure though.
Barley writes:
Support union labor.... it's the right thing to do.
WMBZ
funniest thing all day, thx
Barley | 01.29.09 - 10:11 pm | #
It's coming.... and there isn't a thing you can do about it.
Sorry, dude.
I got the "practical" already claimed.
Thread music:
Sinead O'Connor "don't cry for me argentina"
YouTube - Sinead O'Connor "don't cry for me argentina"
Thread update:
Mad Max 2 - The Uncut Arrow Scene
YouTube - Mad Max 2 - The Uncut Arrow Scene
mp=conjure=speed
who is CD?
Ahhh...Chesapeake, VA rumor: city is deciding whether to cut pay across the board 1-2% or impliment days of unpaid leave.
Its over dudes. The cool kids have left. Ya'll are just standing around talking shit.
New Thread: WSJ: Option ARM Defaults Rising
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They have a shrinking and saturated consumer base.
Lucifer | 01.29.09 - 10:07 pm | #
Understood. My selection is based on the fack that Japan slid into reality long before anyone else and therefore should be the first to recover in my opinion. I suspect however, that it may be a while before we find out.
I'm somewhat tired and amused by these "retirements" from Calculated Risk. "Everything has happened already." Bullsh*t, things are just heating up. Those pretenders will be back. Waiting for food shortages gets old fast. You can let them know I said that.
"Its over dudes. The cool kids have left. Ya'll are just standing around talking shit."
Who's that in the mirror?
The folks I have spoken to in my small town all know that things are going down. At dinner with friends tonight one of them once again said "and you kept telling us". Now they want to know what's next. I keep emphasizing that we are in a good place...small town, good water, gardens galore, etc. It is still not real to a lot of them, but we are all adjusting. The hub and I have prepared places for family and redone the entire plumbing system, we have piled up a lot of wood, we are accumulating tools, we know how to garden and put up food, the hub knows how to smoke meat, we are working on a better water storage and delivery system. We have guns (though I have been hesitant to rehearse this scenario). I just wish I were 20 years younger. Oh well. We are hanging in there, mp and conjure, and I assume you are too.
The article requested is no longer available.
BRUSSELS, Belgium The European Union warned Thursday it would protest provisions in President Barack Obama's economic stimulus plan that favour U.S. steelmakers ahead of imports from Europe or China.
The U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday voted for a so-called "Buy America" provision that would call on major public works projects to favour U.S. steel over imports. The provision came despite objections from some business groups that such a measure would hamper free trade.
It looks like Harper might be growing a backbone now that Bush is gone, there is already talk of a NAFTA challenge. A lot of countries put up with steel, softwood, and other protectionism (ie Mexico was forced to accept toxic waste against local regulations for a landfill) from the USA while Bush literally refused to abide by NAFTA and WTO rulings.
These disputes take years upon years to make it through all the possible appeals, so there will be quick counter-tariffs as even politicians are anxious about preserving jobs
Not sure how far the protectionism goes. The US can eat a devaluation, but not if exports don't rise.
The riots are coming soon... Check out what is happening in France
The Raw Story | More than a million French workers protest economic conditions
Misean. . . Hope you're not misunderstanding where I'm coming from... I fully believe there's a sh*tstorm a-comin'. I just don't think it's gonna be TEOTW. Hey, if it is... I'm ready. No debt, cash on hand, guns, ammo, gas in the tank.
Just trying to lighten things up a bit. Hell, even Denninger sounds like a pollyanna compared to the last few days here.
Oh, and thanks to mp, conjure c&c, etc. But mostly to our gracious host and (late) hostess. Best blog on the tubes!
Major Tom writes:
THEY'RE JUST PRINTING THE GOD DAMN MONEY, YOU IDIOT!!! THERE'S NOT ENOUGH DEMAND IN THE WHOLE FRIGGIN' UNIVERSE FOR THAT MUCH MONEY IN BONDS!!!
Calling Major Tom!!! Can you hear me?
The FED will buy unlimited amounts of Treasuries...That is all the damn money you need
things are just heating up.
Elvis | 01.29.09 - 10:16 pm | #
Yep. What happens next?
I thought everyone knew the mp/conjure connection by now.
mp is the normal one, conjure....?
http://www.alvarezwax.com/Images/Film%20Images/Kuato,George.jpg
I'm bearish but you armegeddon doomers need to get a life in a very big way. I'm serious. I'm concerned about you people. Water? Guns? Firewood? Good Lord some of you need to get a hold of yourselves.
The family lost most of its wealth through the worldwide depression when their bank failed in the early 1930s. Maria tightened belts all around by dismissing most of the servants and taking in boarders. It was around this time that they began considering making the family hobby of singing into a profession. Georg was reluctant for the family to perform in public, "but accepted it as God's will that they sing for others," daughter Eleonore said in a 1978 Washington Post interview. "It almost hurt him to have his family onstage, not from a snobbish view, but more from a protective one." As depicted in The Sound of Music, the family won first place in the Salzburg Music Festival in 1936 and became successful, singing Renaissance and Baroque music, madrigals, and folk songs all across Europe.
When the Nazis annexed Austria in 1938, the von Trapps realized that they were on thin ice with a regime they abhorred. Georg not only refused to fly the Nazi flag on their house, but he also declined a naval command and a request to sing at Hitler's birthday party. They were also becoming aware of the Nazis' anti-religious propaganda and policies, the pervasive fear that those around them could be acting as spies for the Nazis, and the brainwashing of children against their parents. They weighed staying in Austria and taking advantage of the enticements the Nazis were offeringgreater fame as a singing group, a medical doctor's position for Rupert, and a renewed naval career for Georgagainst leaving behind everything they knewtheir friends, family, estate, and all their possessions. They decided that they could not compromise their principles and left.
Heckler & Koch SHOT Show 2K7
YouTube - Heckler & Koch SHOT Show 2K7
THE END IS NEAR bond crash has already happened in parts of upper Kentucky and lower Texas. Your money is worthless, except to buy GUNS!
Misha,
That was nice, but shut the hell up!
Balanced Riots top Bulldogs
Keep Me Current - sports
Jas, I understand your gripe, but you make a mistake that a lot of upset people make...they think that because something that is supposed to have a positive effect if it improves doesnt turn things around, that it is having no effect. I can pretty much assure you that if these indicators were as bad as they were before, or getting worse, that the bloodbath we are seeing in the real economy would be far worse than it already is.
"if the banks want us to trust them with our money, why don't they trust us with their pen?"
....that's quite astute, HomeDad. I'm gonna save it. Want a name or age put after it?
WMBZ: Actually, we do have a life here. A great life. Lots of friends, sometimes too many parties. The hub and I have advanced degrees. We have chosen to live rural. When you live rural, you attend to the basics: water, gardens, firewood, how to do your own plumbing, construction, etc. (guns...not to my liking, but necessary, I guess). I grew up in a city and lived in them a good portion of my life. I would not like to live there now.
....good thinking, prairiedog. I wish I were younger going thru it as well. I think mp & conjure are correct in spending more time in preparation. More should do it as well. The affirmation that the people who know more than I in regards to economics see the need to prep - shows that maybe I've chosen the correct tack. I might rethink the "getting acquainted with my firearms" idea. Never hurts to be comfortable with them during use.
CRBot: Killing dead threads deader since last week.
weeks....
who is CD?
Comrade Kristina |
A very nice, astute poster who left about a week ago...felt blogging was too passive and had made his plans...
I am glad that EvilHenryPaulson has returned, and that elvis,rich, dryfly, eviltwin nova, you and lots of other posters are still here, as is our host, CR.
Since you all are both smarter and cooler than I am, I have no reason to leave. I might miss something.
My guess MP = Mr. Practical, don't know about Conjure though.
Anonymous | 01.29.09 - 10:14 pm | #
I think so too. If true, that puts him in Singapore or somewhere in that vicinity. I think that's where Mr. Practical lives.
Tough times ahead for Bill Gross. grin
[WMBZ writes:
I'm bearish but you armegeddon doomers need to get a life in a very big way]
It's apocalyptic, not armegeddon. Get your doomer terms straight. About the outcome, well, we'll see...