Here in DC I've definitely noticed softening in the rental market (seen listings with 2-3 months free), but I would not say we're at the point where rent is "falling fast."
Same thing is happening Seattle. The section I live in, Magnolia, I'm seeing 1/2 off 1st month's rent or 1st month free. Also, reduced deposits or no deposits at all. Can't wait until April when my lease is up.
Hey, I posted this link early this morning. Oh well.
It has a nice quote on expected job losses in NYC...
"According to the Independent Budget Office of New York City, the outlook is bleak. The agency expects the city to lose 243,000 jobs from the peak of early 2008."
Rents have nowhere to go but down. And all the new condo towers and condo conversions on the West Side of Manhattan are now quietly looking for rental tenants.
I live in a California beach community and there are usually very few rental units available. I went for a walk this morning, and I was amazed at all the "For Rent" and "For Lease" signs. The market is changing rapidly here too. - CR
Cr, recalibrate your "RE goggles." It has really only been in the last 8 years that we've seen the tightness you are talking about. In the mid 90s there was always the 1940s or 50s or 70s shack or 3 blocks away fourplex at a good rent if you weren't picky. It's unfair to use the last 8 years as a baseline.
Luckily rents (and prices) can't fall in San Francisco. People tell me this every day. That's because SF is world class and special. not like the backwater of... uh... NYC.
well regardless, SF is in California, and we all know what that means... by definition it MUST improve first so that it can lead the nation out of its problems.
Only California can do it! It's so special!
You know, California would be the 8th biggest economy on Earth if it weren't held back by the rest of the US.
Did I forget any other silly pro-California rants? Just want to get them out of the way.
Asking rents aren't budging anywhere near me, but accepted rents are. At the end of the boom a lot of dead-on-arrival condo projects converted to apartments, so we saw a rapid increase in apartment vacancies here in SW Minneapolis.
I drive by a lot of these places, and they seem more dark than they should be, but I'm not sure what the rental vacancies have been like.
Overall though, I doubt it's good. the overbilding in RE translated to overbuilding in apartments.
seniors unloading a mortgage-free house at today's prices (at least in bubble and near-bubble areas) are probably facing some serious recalibration of their previous financial plans--assuming for the sake of argument that the paid-off house represented, say, 30% of the the household net assets at the top of the market.
In 2005, at the HBB and patrick.net, there were long discussion that SFR owners with big mortgages would face job mobility problems when the downturn hit. In the old Reagan phrase, they can't vote with their feet and move to cheaper areas or to places where jobs might be available.
Unless they walkaway.
Jesse, Derringer, Mish.. These people are basically saying we are proper fudged. We don't know yet because no central banker or head of state wants to be the first to announce it..
Well, if rents go into freefall nationwide, that will just make it necessary for home prices to fall even further, assuming some relationship akin to parity between the cost of renting and the cost of owning.
It should contribute to an overshoot, rather than the nice tidy regression to the norm that people are now praying for.
Of course, you drown just as dead in 10 feet of water as in a water depth of 50 feet, so the point of view of our zombie money center banks that are already insolvent, the issue is somewhat academic.
"are probably facing some serious recalibration of their previous financial plans"
right, that was my point - they aren't in quite the same cushy position as the other hypothetical cases mentioned.
being any kind of an RE seller just sucks now. NOTHING is moving over 300/sqft in areas where 400/sqft was flying out the door with multiple offers a year ago.
Let's see... homeownership falling AND rents falling. Gee, some people didn't think those things could happen at the same time. Luckily most of those fools tucked their tail and ran away from here a while back.
This is validation of two points -- (1) household consolidation and (2) income sensitivity of rental prices. Neither of these bode well, but neither are we stunned or surprised.
Mainstreet Bank of Forest Lake, one of Minnesota's largest and oldest community banks, has received a cease-and-desist order from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., alleging "hazardous lending and lax collection practices."
Applying valuations to the assets that are realistic in today's markets, and offering to buy them at those prices (anywhere from 5 to 20 cents on the dollar, I suspect), would finish off many if not most US banks. Simple as that. I also suspect that if you offer less than 80 cents, many banks would also fail. There are still people, even if by now it's hard to believe, who argue that the assets can provide a profit down the line, like Will Straw, Center for American Progress, in the first video below. No they cannot and they will not. We may call them "assets" till we're blue in the tonsils, but most of these "assets" are wagers, slips for bets on horses that lost the races they were in. And unless you have a time machine, you can not have those races run again. Suggesting that you can is for the senile crowd.
--Automatic Earth
Well, if rents go into freefall nationwide, that will just make it necessary for home prices to fall even further, assuming some relationship akin to parity between the cost of renting and the cost of owning. linear algebra | 01.31.09 - 7:53 pm | #
Yep, along with unemployment, falling rent will crush any recovery in housing. I do not think that fixing the financial system really matters anymore. Those who need credit to keep going are not going to qualify.
A lot of my family is from Western PA and I was born outside of Pittsburgh.
Parents moved away when I was a toddler and my father referred to it as "the escape"; and that was before the '70s bottoming.
Although some parts of the area have rebuilt, there are still some real disaster areas. Even the nicer areas are exceptionally affordable compared to other areas. My home in that general area would probably be about 30 - 35% less than here.
Of course, you also have to contend with a lot more snow/cold, mountainous areas and the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Let's see... homeownership falling AND rents falling. Gee, some people didn't think those things could happen at the same time. Luckily most of those fools tucked their tail and ran away from here a while back.
This is validation of two points -- (1) household consolidation and (2) income sensitivity of rental prices. Neither of these bode well, but neither are we stunned or surprised. Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) | 01.31.09 - 7:55 pm | #
Sounds vaguely familiar but for the life of me the name(s) escape me. Perhaps because I was busy selling off all my investment real estate by April 2006 bcause I was concerned about asset exposure and falling rents.
the decline in rents will likely be as uneven as the runup in prices. what i'm seeing in rural souther new england (or is that an oxymoron?) is an increasing vacancy rate, coupled with a spike in folks trying to unload multi-unit properties at more or less fire-sale prices (at least compared to what stuff was changing hands for in 2005).
the good news is that if the properties actually change hands at a bit below current asking prices, they can be economical for the new owners at rents and occupancy rates currently in evidence.
that bad news is that if occupancy rates continue to decline (folks move back toward the cities), it's pretty much game over for a bunch of investor types.
Jas, you are the biggest dope I've ever come across, and, what's more, you've oblivious to your own ignorance. Jas, I apologize for calling you an antisemite. You don't know enough to be an antisemite: from your statement below and earlier, it appears you don't know what Judaism or Jewish people even are. In fact, you may well have them confused with the Irish, from what I can tell.
Whatever! As long as you and your buds rule the website, I suppose.
Jas, racial groups do not have the backward-ass medieval characteristics you so assuredly assign them. You are utterly disproved by the daily experience of 300 Million Americans who work side-by-side and intermarry with peoples from all backgrounds. Your race-theories, and your absurd fantasies about the imminent collapse of the United States need to be called out as the crap they are. I'm done with them.
At any rate, NO ONE should care a fig what Jas has to say about any group of people or nation, since he's utterly ignorant of the history and society of the United States--and almost certainly elsewhere.
He's a loser, he's anti-scientific regarding race and nationality, he's a moron, and I don't know why y'all bother.
To incessantly preach subjects about which one knows nothing whatsoever is, possibly, forgivable. I'll leave that to you other readers. As for me, I'd be glad if Jas--little petty Gollum-like fuck that he is--lost his internet access and would retire back beneath his rock.
That said, I previously declared that I was done with Calculated Risk: I apologize for commenting again. Bad form on my part.
Jas Jain writes:
The use of the label "anti-Semite," or "anti-Semitic," by some is laughable. To me, someone must wish and want harm to the innocent Jews, or Jews in general, to be called an anti-Semite. Otherwise, the term is used to suppress free speech and valid criticism.
All groups have some tendencies that are fair subject of criticism. Criticism is very healthy! As a matter of fact, some 80-100 years ago, some very public criticism of Jews in New York City was very healthy and helpful and positive for the Jews (I have read more Jewish history, in America and outside, than vast majority of Jews; it was part of my general reading of history to understand the American system and the economy). Suppressing valid criticism is the worst thing that anyone can do for himself, or the group that he belongs to.
I do not think that fixing the financial system really matters anymore. Those who need credit to keep going are not going to qualify. Blackhalo | 01.31.09 - 7:57 pm | #
We are in violent agreement on that point, hence my ongoing opposition to continued bailouts. We've found ourselves in a deep hole and the solution is to keep digging??? I believe even some of the more level-headed types (Roubini, Noland, etc.) are supporting such efforts because they can't conceive of what the world will look like if they don't prop up the dead bodies of those institutions that currently comprise it.
"Heres the logic (which follows directly from Milton Friedmans permanent income hypothesis, by the way): suppose that the government introduces a new program that will cause it to spend $100 billion a year every year from now on. To pay for this, it will have to raise taxes by $100 billion a year, permanently and if consumers take this into account, they might well cut their spending enough to offset the increase in government purchases." -Krugman
When will the Professor figure out that we entered a brave new world.
Jeff, Jas is a real person. He's less anonymous than 99% of the folks who post here and/or elsewhere. If you're going to use those kinds of anonymous attacks, why not return the favor and give a full name and current city of residence?
Jas isn't the only one with published predictions, you know.
The odds are good that we'll see a secondary housing price downturn overlaid on the "anticipated S-curve" currently in motion. In other words, general expectation is a repeat of the 1990-1996 downturn and you can see that in today's price curve so far.
Imagine a new downturn superimposed on the downturn. In fact, I think it started in December based on CA statistics.
I doubt if the financial system can handle a second wave of 50% losses. I'm hoping it's not true but...
.
what i'm seeing in rural souther new england (or is that an oxymoron?) is an increasing vacancy rate, coupled with a spike in folks trying to unload multi-unit properties at more or less fire-sale prices (at least compared to what stuff was changing hands for in 2005).
the good news is that if the properties actually change hands at a bit below current asking prices, they can be economical for the new owners at rents and occupancy rates currently in evidence. elgraccho | 01.31.09 - 7:59 pm | #
My sister in Chatham is having trouble with a rental that until recently had a waiting list. The Cape could be a bloodbath. Part of the problem is the landlords with absurdly low costs. They'll always undercut if necessary.
Was in the bank this morning doing business and caught a snippet on FoxNews(their lobby TV) that some republican congressmen were proposing a 4% blanket mortgage rate on all mortgages for a two year period. Even if you had a mortgage, it would revert to 4% for two years.
Sorry you feel that way. I still value your opinion the same as before
@Mugabe:
I'm being too harsh today. My patience is too thin and I'm taking it out on others (e.g. you). My apologies.
there are some posters who push my buttons, and I transferred those feelings to you based on one single post that you wrote that in the end was unrelated to my ire.
I don't want CR to devolve like Mish's site did (IMO) and thus we must be vigilant with our posts. The commentary is generally more important to me than the post headings (sorry CR).
but in the end I'm irritated with my day, and shouldn't have posted in this mood.
My apologies to you specifically, and to others. (i.e. the Californians... although I still maintain you're not THAT special).
i'd better sign of now for the night before I insult anybody else.
A good night to you all.
(yes, CA has more people than MN. but I'm not claiming that MN will lead us anywhere, nor that it "needs" to improve first.)
Yep, just got 20% off my rent for a lease renewal for a 1 bdrm in AZ! Plowing the monthly rent savings into GLD, SDS, SLW, EEV as well as some likely ill-fated JPM puts.
@ Senorito...
In AZ, pretty much name your price, within reason.
I want to see some web 2.0 geek create a "Kill the Zombie Banks" game, similar to the Bailout Game thing that was floating around. RhodesianGreenbackinAZ | 01.31.09 - 7:59 pm | #
The DOOM series for PCs had great tools for mapping your own environments. Perhaps someone will come out with one for Wall Street; I'd love to try the chain gun there. Some would opt for the BFG, of course, but you don't get the same type of "ripping bodies apart" gratification.
"The odds are good that we'll see a secondary housing price downturn overlaid"
yup, I still haven't seen much of an explanation as to why we won't follow Japan's decade+ of endless sequential quarters of falling RE prices - we certainly seem to be copying every move they made to get that ball rolling.
Don't Cry for Me Tehachapi do you know Jas? Your not the marine who likes the cowboys are you?
.................
On topic: My sister is a property manager for one of the fancy residences in Boston. They usually run about 95%+ occupancy. They are at eighty and change... As I understand it they arent taking it well....
I agree this is far from your typical housing cycle, which is why I've consistently stated that Cali at '96 prices is by far the best-case outcome of which I can conceive -- and even that's a stretch for me. You don't want to know the worst.
The K-winter is definitely upon us; or, as McHugh puts it we're on the downside of EW Grand Supercycle IV.
your faith in the federal government in general and treasury dept and fed in particular is truly touching, Jas, especially coming after such a deeply horrible month as an investor. I wish I had such infinite faith in their competence and such a capacity to absorb such deep and quick losses.
CA : you said that people are still loosing their homes because they couldn't afford it but the credit crunch now is denting into the jumbo loans so maybe the economic downturn is at work here ?
Arent you counting different sides of the equation. Falling salaries = less consumption and lower prices. Falling rents = more consumption. Am I missing something?
In other words, absent all other factors, if real growth is 4%, and interest rate on all debt is 4%, the bubble could be kept intact indefinitely. Broward Horne | Homepage | 01.31.09 - 8:11 pm | #
What about the problem of depreciating assets like houses as well as the holding costs?
He timed the last great boom incorrectly because he didn't foresee the housing/credit/currency bubble pulling things forward a few years, but the demographics issues he identifies are still there.
When are the rent reductions coming to Silicon Valley? I'm paying $2000 a month for a one-bedroom apartment. Admittedly, it's a damn nice apartment, but why is it so damn expensive? There's better deals to be had on similar apartments nearby, but I can't find anything better than about $300 lower.
I'm hoping that Sun and AMD will finally die the death that they so richly deserve and lay everyone off. To quote Jack Nicholson from Batman: "This town needs an enema."
BushCo really had a successful presidency. The pigs at t trough (Bushes constancy) fed really well.
Income of 400 richest Americans doubled during Bush era
Jeremy Gantz
Published: Saturday January 31, 2009
The 21st century Gilded Age party really got going before the U.S. economy went bust.
It was a party disproportionately enjoyed the richest Americans, the 400 wealthiest of which actually doubled their share of all U.S. income between 1996 and 2006, new statistics released by the Internal Revenue Service show. The average income of those 400 people actually doubled to $263.3 million during the first six years of George W. Bush's presidency, according to the data.
Between 2005 and 2006, those 400 Americans saw their income rise nearly 23 percent, and through the first six years of the Bush administration their average tax rate fall by a third, to 17.2 percent, Bloomberg reported.
That 17.2 percent tax rate was the lowest the group has paid on average since the IRS began keeping track of the country's 400 biggest taxpayers in 1992, the agency's data shows.
"When are the rent reductions coming to Silicon Valley? "
rents crashed there in 2001, they should be weakening significantly in the coming year. in any case, i'm sure you could find something near the 85/101 for less than 2/3 of that price for the equivalent without too much work.
At this point, I suspect TPTB are focused only on fixing cash flows. The reality is that there's two problems.
In terms of an eletronics model, there are huge capacitance charges built up that have to discharge (debt).
But the immediate problem is that those charges have altered the current flows (cash flows) to the point of systemic failure.
My reasoning is that the System fails no matter what for these reasons. Even if they fix the cash flows, the debt in place creates new problems. Toss in entitlement cash flows in the near future...
The Thing is toast. They'll probably be able to wrestle around with it for another year or two, maybe even do a partial reboot like Japan for awhile. But ultimately there's a Systemic failure in the near future.
.
I want to see some web 2.0 geek create a "Kill the Zombie Banks" game, similar to the Bailout Game thing that was floating around. RhodesianGreenbackinAZ | 01.31.09 - 7:59 pm | #
The contraction that the financial industry is going to have to go through, with the demise of the MBS->CDO->CDS chain is going to make the housing crash in CA look like child's play. NY and NYC are scrood.
Within 100 years California will pass a ballot initiative to rejoin Mexico. reptillian | 01.31.09 - 8:13 pm | #
Heck, Mexico may not exist as a coherent state in 10 years, since they'll have to start importing oil well before then. Take away oil export revenues and alien remittances and there's nothing much left but drug-running and tourism, and the latter can't survive the former.
Jas, you once told me, after I modestly suggested that you were ill-informed about the racial make-up of the American South, that you are always eager to learn. You really did. You remain ill-informed about nearly everything, yet lack the modesty that would allow you to increase your knowledge and, perhaps, someday, become less a bigot. I didn't believe you, because of the disgusting self-regard and haughtiness...but, you never know, right?
You could, Jas, become less of an ignorant bigot, and learn about the world you diminish...but only if you recognized that you don't already know everything.
I know that there are some folks here who have some precious metals. Does anyone have any thoughts on getting silver maple leafs vs plain jane 1 oz silver rounds or 10oz silver bars?
Same for gold - is there any reason to pay the premium for a gold maple leaf vs getting 1oz pamp suisse bars with an assay card?
Take away oil export revenues and alien remittances and there's nothing much left but drug-running and tourism, and the latter can't survive the former.
I agree Mexico is heading for a crash, and will not be exporting oil shortly.
However, I spent time in Guerro a while back, and the revolution is not dead, and a portion of the population is politically literate.
Watch out----
Sooner. Street level confidence is failing fast, and I hear the craziest stuff from formerly normal people, friends and acquaintances.
Really, really nutty stuff. Lots of folks who pissed through the savings, 401K, all of it to save the house. You can guess how it ends.
These people are pissed, and want free stuff PDQ. They have little time left, and with no real prospects, and well, people tend to make their own, know what I mean. Couple that with endless days of watching Hollywoods latest and copious amounts of first-person shooters on X-Box, and the attitude starts to get funky.
I have both Eagles and bars. IMHO, get a few of those that anyone will easily recognize JIC but don't bother with the premium for the bulk of your purchases.
Portland, Oregon here. I'm seeing some "looseness" in apartment rentals, if you go by the big signs offering special deals in the complexes. But it's a slowdown rather than a panic. And venturing into the Beaverton shopping districts, things were still very busy, lots of traffic, hard to get a parking space. You would never know there was anything wrong.
The Thing is toast. They'll probably be able to wrestle around with it for another year or two, maybe even do a partial reboot like Japan for awhile. But ultimately there's a Systemic failure in the near future. Broward Horne | Homepage | 01.31.09 - 8:18 pm | #
The annoying thing is that no one but the bloggers (based on what I see on MSM) are looking closely at the mechanics of the failure. So TPTB continue to try and save these vampire (prefer that as they continue to suck blood and money) banks.
Now my expectaton is that the reason is mostly politcal as the shareholders/bondholders of these financial institutions that are getting the largess of the gov's attention are probably, big time campain contributors. Until new money brings in new politicians (congressmen in particular), I do not see a turn around in policy.
The one item that give me great hope, were the sucesses in Ron Paul and O' in raising funding from smaller, on line contributors. Ideally this will allow non-bank candidates to unseat those who voted for TARP in the primaries and '10 elections.
You have bad manners too (to say that you were done and then not be done).
What part of "you are dismissed!" don't you get? Even dopes get that right.
BTW, dopes are not bad or stupid people; they are just brainwashed beyond recovery. You seem to be way beyond that mild and common infliction among "educated" Americans.
eagles are generally easier to sell. the downside is that they are amongst the ugliest bullion coins, while maple leafs are probably the most beautiful, as long as you ignore the queen and focus on the leaf.
swiss bars might get dinged 2-3% when you sell relative to eagles.
I live om NYC, and I think so as well. If the estimate I posted from the Budget office here holds, 240k jobs lost from the peak of 2008, then prices and rents may go much lower than the crash in 90/91.
I think the reason they're doing what they're doing is partly due to a fundamental misunderstanding of the problem. The collapse of the financial system isn't the disease, it's the symptom.
"Bye Bye California dream i.e w/o "bubbles" you are nothing special !"
LA had a brutal real estate crash in the 1890s after a soaring bubble in the 1880s. somehow, it recovered. it has happened a few times since, and will probably happen again. i've worn flip-flops and a t-shirt in a semi-outdoor environment all day, btw.
Jas, you don't "get" to dismiss people, and you don't get to define words. Where does this ridiculous haughtiness come from? Do you fancy yourself a noble? We don't do that here. You really do not understand the US at all, yet pontificate about it endlessly.
I never would have mistaken you for an Orange County Dood....Geeze - was I off-base.
Anyway - VERY GOOD last thread. Your friend Ramsey Su makes a great argument for it being a good time to rent vs. trying to keep head above water. I never gave much thought about it.
240k jobs lost from the peak of 2008, then prices and rents may go much lower than the crash in 90/91. fried | 01.31.09 - 8:37 pm | #
So, back in 06 ish when I heard that CA housing was going for 11 to 13x income, when historical norms were 2.5 - 3x, I knew that was not sustainable and that a reversal was on the way. I was somewhat surprized it took as long as it did.
Recently I had heard that the Financial industry was at 15% GDP, pre-bubble burst and that historical norms were 3%. If one in five bankers/stock analysts etc are pink-slipped, that is going to hurt. NYC in particular.
--
"LA had a brutal real estate crash in the 1890s after a soaring bubble in the 1880s. somehow, it recovered. it has happened a few times since, and will probably happen again. i've worn flip-flops and a t-shirt in a semi-outdoor environment all day, btw."
Don't Cry for Me Tehachapi,
We have home price data for San Diego and it had some great bubbles and busts (79% and 89%, if I recall) after the Civil War. However, the US was not among the top 5 producers in the world before 1871. America was 27-year old then and now is 78-year old on various supports.
Don't expect America to bounce back from the current conditions like it did in earlier era. It is old and sick.
"Don't expect America to bounce back from the current conditions like it did in earlier era. It is old and sick."
Jas, i wasn't talking about the country as a whole, just LA, which has had nasty housing bear markets many times.
and I don't expect meaningful economic growth to return until the median baby boomer dies. at that point, who knows. but it will probably be nicer than rajasthan on the whole.
"I think the reason they're doing what they're doing is partly due to a fundamental misunderstanding of the problem. The collapse of the financial system isn't the disease, it's symptom."
Of course. Whatever else Jas may know or not know, he understands this. The problem is a moral one first.
Anything further along this line is decidedly off-topic here.
The best mechanics in the world can repair the best automobile, but if the driver is habitually drunk it's to no avail.
Mike--just google junk silver and you will see tons of it.
Also, in terms of buying gold or silver, it depends on your perspective.
If you think the world is going to explode and you are going to need to use a PM as currency, then you should get it in a variety of different forms--most in fairly small denominations (unless you plan on making a major purchase). Someone on this blog once posted a very interesting blog from Argentina about how they got through their problems. The writer stated that, in retrospect, they wished they had small gold rings to trade. Just tried to find the blog, but could not.
If you are just wanting PM for investment, then buy it in the form that has best re-sale. Someone on this blog can probably tell you what that would be.
You said that you were done and then said that you were surely done after one more post. We now know that you are not a man that keeps his words. That is far worse than many things about a man. Since you have called me many names, you are scum. Now, get lost and show some shame by keeping your words.
For all you guys talking coinz, isn't there a business opportunity there? If you could find a reputable mint that could put together and certify a coin with 2.50$ in gold and 2.50$ in silver and start cranking out the 10 Hopajoop coin and sell them 10 for 100$ on late-nite, sham-wow TV.
Why are we all still here? Isn't Iceland the best place to be at some point? Meaning they were the first to crash so potentially the first to recover?
My complex has had a rash of vacancies recently and their "move in special" is $100 less than it was 10 months ago which was $100 less than what I moved in on.
Of course this rate is for new move-in's only. At the same time lady at the rental office told me to "work with them" because I've been a solid renter. So what's the best way to "threaten to move out" if I really have no intention of doing so?
PSGirl,
I would be buying it mostly as a means of diversification. The thought of having some "tangible" money available is somewhat appealing as well.
I'm gonna take all my cash out of the bank as I heard all the banks are going to turn into sperm banks next week... oh, you mean there's some other "bad bank"?
why is Jaswant Jain (a mawari) critising Jews. It is a bit like a person who molests 8 year olds complaining about guys having trophy wives. Seriously, ask non-marwari indians what they think of marwaris..
So what's the best way to "threaten to move out" if I really have no intention of doing so? YLSP | 01.31.09 - 8:56 pm | #
Tell them you want to move in to one of thier empty places for the move-in rate, but that you'd be happy to stay where you are at that rate. It cost them a pretty penny to turn-over a place so you REALLY should be paying lees thatn that.
I don't know that the U.S.A. is any lazier or more greedy than any other gaggle of humans, given the same nearly limitless opportunities to make fools of themselves. And it does seem that fools from every part of the planet are eager to come here and be bigger fools. MY DH came here 25 years ago thinking the streets were paved with gold. He'd make a lot of money, and go home, trailing clouds of glory. Just human nature.
Jas--I will not leave. Not yet. I'll see how it goes here for a bit, I think, unless other posters ask me to leave--by they way, they have asked you to leave.
Jas, when you have the patience to learn about the world, I'll accept you back into the fold; until then, you must leave. Sorry.
You wrote:
Jas Jain writes:
"Jas, you don't "get" to dismiss people"
jeff,
You said that you were done and then said that you were surely done after one more post. We now know that you are not a man that keeps his words. That is far worse than many things about a man. Since you have called me many names, you are scum. Now, get lost and show some shame by keeping your words.
I think that business model is gonna get thrown out the window as more b&bd's sell their TVs to stay in their homes... YLSP | 01.31.09 - 8:58 pm | #
I dunno. I think you could run a PowePoint presentation of the charts that CR put up last night and the phones would be ringing. You would just need a Tony Robins, or Kevin Trudeau type to push the fear buttions and you would be rolling in the dough.
Outsider writes:
Indeed; very amusing. It might have been moreso were it not for certain recent and unpleasant personal events.
This has been fun, but I see it is time for me to go. Bye, all.
Nemo | Homepage | 01.31.09 - 10:11 am | #
Nemo??? Nemo???
Outsider | 01.31.09 - 10:43 am | #
Looking for nemo statement but no entery from Nemo at that time any info? what happened lots of mentors leaving these days. Very sad.
--
"Jas, i wasn't talking about the country as a whole, just LA, which has had nasty housing bear markets many times."
Yes, SoCal was the big new new thing during and following the railroads era. Many booms and busts, but since it was real money and not as much leverage the booms didn't last as long as they do now because of the debt and leverage.
Also, the current boom was statewide and nationwide. Hell, it was global. Therefore, the bust would last a very long time. It is a different beast than the past booms and busts that were more local.
The Obama administration has yet to figure out how to deal with the complete failure of the American banking system. This systemic banking crisis
will mean a run on the banks beginning next week and the stock markets to drop 20%. Only immediate nationalization of most banks next week can stop such a terrible occurrence!!
In a mostly sane world, the relationship between income and housing expense (rent or mortgage) would govern the 'worth' or 'value' of residential housing. We know that incomes for all but the highest paid 10% (or so) of the population have been essential flat for nearly a decade, but housing has increased dramatically. But that ratio (about 1 to 3) has lots of history behind it and is like a magnet on housing over the long haul.
Now we are getting major unemployment due to globalization and US business declines, and the short/mid term outlook for employment is grim. There are no growth industries on the short/mid term horizon to restart income increases, and having a large unemployed (or temp/part-time workers) pool will drag down the income numbers for some time to come.
At the base, this is the dilemma. We don't need increased lending (except to prevent complete collapse of the housing market through walk-aways and foreclosures), we need growth creating jobs. The banks debts on bad lending are fake wealth now. There is nothing real to support those debts, and the financial institutions that hold them.
Since other nations will see increased unemployment that competes for US jobs, undermining domestic incomes, this is a race to the bottom, and housing is the tail, not the dog.
We can argue all year about saving or not saving the banks from their errors, but that seems immaterial to the basic flaws in the economy which make employment precarious. Why hire people if businesses are imploding? Or that cheaper workers outside the US are available for many US jobs?
Weak banks and cliff-diving housing and souring national debt are symptoms, not causes. Who will hire the workers is the big question. I see no answers except 1930's-type mass employment programs paid by society as a whole through the government - and that is far from a guaranteed outcome.
In a mostly sane world, the relationship between income and housing expense (rent or mortgage) would govern the 'worth' or 'value' of residential housing. We know that incomes for all but the highest paid 10% (or so) of the population have been essential flat for nearly a decade, but housing has increased dramatically. But that ratio (about 1 to 3) has lots of history behind it and is like a magnet on housing over the long haul.
Now we are getting major unemployment due to globalization and US business declines, and the short/mid term outlook for employment is grim. There are no growth industries on the short/mid term horizon to restart income increases, and having a large unemployed (or temp/part-time workers) pool will drag down the income numbers for some time to come.
At the base, this is the dilemma. We don't need increased lending (except to prevent complete collapse of the housing market through walk-aways and foreclosures), we need growth creating jobs. The banks debts on bad lending are fake wealth now. There is nothing real to support those debts, and the financial institutions that hold them.
Since other nations will see increased unemployment that competes for US jobs, undermining domestic incomes, this is a race to the bottom, and housing is the tail, not the dog.
We can argue all year about saving or not saving the banks from their errors, but that seems immaterial to the basic flaws in the economy which make employment precarious. Why hire people if businesses are imploding? Or that cheaper workers outside the US are available for many US jobs?
Weak banks and cliff-diving housing and souring national debt are symptoms, not causes. Who will hire the workers is the big question. I see no answers except 1930's-type mass employment programs paid by society as a whole through the government - and that is far from a guaranteed outcome.
I wouldn't worry about it. He has no idea who or what Jews are and is just spouting inherited bigotry out of ignorance. Scary thing is that he may be teaching people in the US. He's not a threat, in a larger sense, except that he's in a position of power and has no idea what he's talking about.
Lucifer writes:
why is Jaswant Jain (a mawari) critising Jews. It is a bit like a person who molests 8 year olds complaining about guys having trophy wives. Seriously, ask non-marwari indians what they think of marwaris..
Lucifer | 01.31.09 - 8:59 pm | #
"I think the reason they're doing what they're doing is partly due to a fundamental misunderstanding of the problem. The collapse of the financial system isn't the disease, it's symptom."
It's not a misunderstanding; it's a different problem. The goal for you is saving a failing economy. The goal for them is saving a failing financial system, and they'll save the economy if they need to in order to save the banks.
Apparently I'm not eligible to go into the "move in rate", since I'm a current resident. I'm not sure how they calculate the rates. When I asked last week they didn't have a clue what the renewals were going to go out as.
I'm just guessing the fact that I've seen numerous tenants move out and numerous vacancies that it's a huge signal to them that "our rents are way too high we need to reduce". Another decent raise and it would've been way more beneficial for me to go month-month a year ago.
... and just looking at craigslist it looks like there are a number of houses I can move into where my family would be a bit happier.
greenlander,
Yikes! I will have a talk with my renter. 4 bedrooms on a big lot in a nice part of town - $2500 per month.
I did a look at Craig's List a while ago and that $2500 did not seem too low at the time. It is located just west of Winchester and a bit south of 280.
We put about $75K of deferered maintenance and repairs into it over the last two years. The landlord business is not that great a business.
As a long time born again dopish Calfironian, please everyone bash the hell out of California. This state is a hellhole full the the brim with folks worse than those seen in the Mad Max movies. The whole state is Mad Max squared or even to the 4th power. Avoid at all cost.
Please help make our house prices crash hard in the areas we are interested in buying in. We need another leg down of 100 or even better 200K to put a smile on our faces. Do your part to make us happy.
--
"Jas, when you have the patience to learn about the world, I'll accept you back into the fold; until then, you must leave. Sorry."
jeff,
Who the F are you? You are a proven coward. You don't fight fair and you don't keep your words. You try to discredit me by the false charge of "anti-Semite." I dont like jeff, but I would never ask you, or anyone, to leave. You threatened to leave and now you don't seem to want to leave. What is your problem now? You don't want to leave until I am leave or am banned? You are behaving like an Intolerant bigot and are engaging in personal attacks. I am simply shooting back after I was shot few times by you. Learn to be a man.
I'm ruining things by calling out the house bigot. I won't apologize for it, but I will leave you and leave you with the bigot, if that's what CR community wants.
homedad43 writes:
I'll be curious to see about vacation home rentals in beach communities this summer.
We go with another family each August to DE or MD and next week is typically when we start checking the RE listings.
And as to the "bad bank"?
What a bunch of idiots.
homedad43 | Homepage | 01.31.09 - 7:45 pm | #
homedad43
I sent you some links a while back. The answer to your question is YES!
This will be my third year leasing. Last year I leased 9 months. This year I'll have it for 5 months. Im living large on a middle class budget. Life is good for me. I have lived within my means. I have the place again from April 1st thru August 31st.
Real bigots can't hide their bigotry for too long. I know you want an outlet for your bigotry and I happen to be of a known ethnicity. You are hiding behind your evil mask.
I'm not THAT much for anecdotes, but they do hold some meaning. Plus, hearing and seeing things on the street reinforces the facts I read here o/l. Here is a clip of from a cell phone conversation I overheard in CVS tonight:
"Mom, if I lose my job... No, I don't think I'm going to get fired any day... Well, if the firm is losing 100k/month... don't repeat that."
No, thanks. Once more you threaten to leave and you don't. Amazing. Good riddance, I hope.
I apologize to the rest for having to deal with a rogue poster. It is tavern in a rough neighborhood and one has to deal some drunks every now and then. He kept using foul language for too long and had to be dealt with.
i sold my beach cottage home in july 05 in 6 days expecting a crash any second. since then i have been VERY happily renting.
i shed possessions, set up a forwarding address at earthclassmail.com and never looked back. renting has been awesome. i rented a 2500 square foot 3 story apartment in asheville for $1500. it had a 400 square foot bathroom with a huge hot tub. later was on the market for $1 million. had another amazing apartment there for $750. then a beautiful 1920's craftsman house for $1000.
now i have an office and apartment downtown portland for $2000 total.
all of these are less than my monthly expenses as a homeowner and i never have to set foot in that infernal home depot ever again.
Have you ever considered the role of you "jati" in the large man-made famines in India (under british rule)? In a just world, there would be no marwaris left! Heck, you guys make the "ferengi" on Star Trek look good..
How thrilled our largest creditor, China, must be that we are creating vast amounts of dollahs to inflate into obscurity our currency while they hold all that dollar denominated debt.
Jas, you simply cannot blatantly lie like this and then call me names: my posts are public, and it's clear I've never made any posts like those you accuse me of. You are taking this to unacceptable levels. I gave you my email. You need to stop this, now..or do you need the last public word?
Why do I get annoyed when people say this? Shouldn't it be uplifting?
RockyR
.
Why beat yourself up for your reaction? Relax. Have a drink. Go look at crisis jokes. We have a long way to go, don't let your blood pressure burst your brain in the 3rd inning.
Mike in Long Island writes:
...Does anyone have any thoughts on getting silver maple leafs vs plain jane 1 oz silver rounds or 10oz silver bars?...
Mike in Long Island | 01.31.09 - 8:23 pm | #
Mike, the future is uncharted territory,
but heres my guess
if you are "playing the market" bars with the right stamp are probably ok ie "credit suisse" etc
but if you are acquiring silver or gold as an insurance policy against the non acceptability of paper currency...to "spend"
then
i would think recognizability and acceptability by the counter-party to the trade or purchase you wish to transact is important
that suggests us eagles, canadian maples, etc might be best
Folks, One of the nice reasons CR (the Blog) is such an informative/entertaining hang-out is because CR (incarnate) lets the audience control the dialogue. On rare occassion, I've seen a gentle reminder about using self-control.
Anyone who's been following CR for more than week should know Jas likes to provoke people.
Seems like most folks have figured out to: (a) makes clever comeback and move on, or (b) ignore him, & especially (c) avoid starting an all-out food fight
BTW: I'm not picking on Jas--there are plenty of writers I don't agree with, but they can speak their minds unless & until the 'man behind the curtain' pulls their plug.
I hope this site continues to permit free--but CIVIL--exchange of ideas & humor. (Multiple hat tips to CR--thanks for a well-run blog.)
Yeah, yeah, spill some more hate, you bigot. Bigots engage in personal attacks based on a posters ethnicity. I know you need an outlet for your bigotry towards a group, groups, and right now I am a handy target. Bigots are usually cowards too.
I bet that what you said about Marwaris had you said about Jews you would be banned or attacked by many here, but you would escape because you know your audience.
Ah, of course. The NYT, who consistently reports falling home prices as "bad news", is now calling falling home prices (of the rental variety) "good news". I sure wish they would make up their minds.
In case some of you are wondering about the reason I stopped beating up on canucks- Now they are starting to realize that they are f**ked! They do not require any assistance to feel miserable.
Fortress Blocks Redemptions as Shareholders Lose 96% Since IPO
Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- One of the things Wesley Edens did soon after his company bought Canadian ski-resort conglomerate Intrawest Corp. in October 2006 was to finance construction of a $43 million gondola at Whistler, British Columbia.
The new lift, completed in December 2008, is the longest unsupported span for any gondola, stretching 2.73 miles (4.4 kilometers). Its also the highest, dangling 1,427 feet (435 meters) over Fitzsimmons Creek between Whistler mountain and its sister peak, Blackcomb. Visitors to the 2010 Winter Olympics, for which Intrawests Whistler Blackcomb resort is a venue, are likely to ride it just for thrills: Two of the 28 cars have glass bottoms.
CR proved to me today that the recovery is underway and that the eye of the storm is passing; he said it with his great charts (even if that wasn't his point).
Jeff, I have no idea who you are nor do I ever recall reading a post by you. To my knowledge you've contributed zero to this blog. You are now doing nothing more than creating noise that I daresay none of us are interested in listening to. Jas, you have made contributions and I have enjoyed some of your previous posts. My suggestion to both of you? SHUT THE FUCK UP and either get on topic or move it off the board. Thanks and remember, you don't have to go home, but you cant stay HERE.
You cannot compare Jews and Marwaris. Jews have contributed a vast multitude of intellectuals and innovators in non-financial areas over the centuries.
marwaris have the blood of many millions of poor indians on their hands. The marwari contribution to science, literature, philosophy, medicine, art is rather insignificant.
SHUT THE FUCK UP and either get on topic or move it off the board. Thanks and remember, you don't have to go home, but you cant stay HERE. Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 01.31.09 - 9:52 pm | #
otishertz,
That works until you have children. They do act as a ball and chain.
I went to many different schools thru high school and I don't remember that as a fun time. Some schools welcome outsiders and some freeze you out.
I did luck out and spent 4 years at the same high school and that was fun times.
--
"Mine, if you have a question, is: mailgilbs@gmail.com"
jeff,
You are shameless because you come back after you say you were done, more than once.
You really are a pest. I don't have any questions for you. Get lost, i.e., don't address anything more to me and I don't want any of your blabber. I will shoot back as long as you keep shooting. You started the brawl and I will take the last shot.
Mike in Long Island writes:
I know that there are some folks here who have some precious metals. Does anyone have any thoughts on getting silver maple leafs vs plain jane 1 oz silver rounds or 10oz silver bars?
As Mock said, as far as using for currency, maple leafs would be fine, they are .9999 silver. Also, you could get a bag of pre-1964 silver coins (half dollars, quarters) for that purpose too. Not for numismatic value, but just for the 90% silver. I think Silver, Silver Bar, Silver Bars, Silver Bullion, Gold and More - APMEX.com (they accept credit cards) is fairly reasonable, as well as Miles Franklin.
Microsoft's inherently-ironic Songsmith software is such a goldmine. Here, some jokester has turned those stock market frowns upside-down by setting them to Songsmith's relentlessly upbeat Casiotone beats.
If this doesn't put a smile on your face, you're probably not closing your eyes shut enough.
I only posted rarely, but have been an appreciative reader for a year. I didn't and still don't know enough to post about the economy, so I've mostly been silent, and just learned from the posters and especially from CR. I have contributed when I though I had something to offer, but mostly I have been here to learn.
I just got fed up with some stuff in comments that nobody seemed to find a problem with. (During bad times, lots of scapegoating happens...I'm maybe hyper-aware of this, but I see it.)
People were afraid of blood in the street for a year, between April 1974 and May 1975, then bingo, the retards with heads fully in the dirt, missed the chance to buy houses and stocks cheap during that year -- while the pros bought cheap.
Same mistake is being made today, while people are talking about The Train Wreck and The Next Depression and Deflation and Bad Banks.
OT, but hey, it's late Saturday, and apparently I missed more unamusing fighting.
The hub and I just saw Milk. Really, excellent. Sean Penn did an absolutely fabulous job. Are gay mannerisms genetic or something? He moved and clapped his hands when happy, exactly like a gay client I had.
BWAHAHAHA... A big pension plan in the province of Quebec, Canada is in trouble..
How Caisse's bet on quants went wrong
KONRAD YAKABUSKI
From Saturday's Globe and Mail
January 30, 2009 at 8:55 PM EST
For four hours and eight minutes, amid the plush decor and sprawling New France tableau of the Quebec legislature's ornate Salon Rouge, Henri-Paul Rousseau gave much better than he got.
It was late 2007, and Mr. Rousseau, the man entrusted to manage Quebeckers' pension savings, had been called before an all-party parliamentary committee to explain why he had risked $13.2-billion of the provincial nest egg on a financial instrument so opaque and complex that only a coterie of elite mathematicians understood it. A financial instrument, what's more, that had turned out to be a bad investment.
--
Only dopes get themselves involved in a barroom brawl. It ends lot sooner if no one else gets involved but it is too much to ask of born-and-bred dopes. This guy jeff was attacking me for no reasons whatsoever and some bigots who hate me decided it was time to hit Jas as someone else started to hit.
Discrediting someone by labels like anti-Semite is a disgusting habit among born-and-bred American dopes. Others rarely use it to the best of my knowledge.
....I wish Gran Torino was as good. It was pathetic. Acting was bad & the script was terrible. Clint needs to stick to one job per movie now. Director/Producer/Leading Male is too much nowadays.
When I lived on Bakersfield, friends described Tehachapi as having five seasons: winter, spring, summer, fall, and winter. They thought highly for Tehachipi.
Inflation dopes would keep singing the same song of "Printing Money" and default possibilities by the US govt. Keep dreaming. Jas Jain | Homepage | 01.31.09 - 8:06 pm | #
It just seems that there is a lot of history of regimes getting in over their heads, then printing frantically until they inflate the debt (and everything else) away. Why would that not applie to the born and bred crooks running the US?
Does anyone have any thoughts on getting silver maple leafs vs plain jane 1 oz silver rounds or 10oz silver bars? Mike in Long Island | 01.31.09 - 8:23 pm | #
Unless they have been held in a Comex depository, you might need assay testing when selling bullion bars and when you sell bars you have to identify them by serial number.
lawyerliz(Unrated) writes: \tOT, but hey, it's late Saturday, and apparently I missed more unamusing fighting.
The hub and I just saw Milk. Really, excellent. Sean Penn did an absolutely fabulous job. Are gay mannerisms genetic or something? He moved and clapped his hands when happy, exactly like a gay client I had.
Truly, an academy award performance. \t lawyerliz | \t \t \t \t01.31.09 - 10:03 pm | #Actually, Liz, our mannerisms are not genetic. We have an annual conference where we decide how to flap our hands and when to do it.It's sort of how us jews also coordinate our behaviours and mannerisms.Are you sure you saw the movie? Your comment is incredibly ignorant.
The hub and I just saw Milk. Really, excellent. Sean Penn did an absolutely fabulous job. Are gay mannerisms genetic or something? He moved and clapped his hands when happy, exactly like a gay client I had.
Truly, an academy award performance.
lawyerliz
.
Combination of culture and hormones, rather than DNA, I suspect, since the children of gays aren't necessarily gay.
Are gay mannerisms genetic or something? lawyerliz | 01.31.09 - 10:03 pm | #
Or something. I'm surprised at you, you know the proportion of gays in America means that you know several, but may not be aware. There's a reason you might not be aware,...they're well within the range of "normal".
IN this painful economic climate of layoffs and shrinking investments, there is a sliver of positive news: its a good time to be a renter in New York City.
CR has the recipe for dishing up the best 5 star, 5 course presentation of the daily bear market repast, but giving page-time to comments like the above, to mix metaphors, is putting lipstick on the bear.
It is only a good time to be a renter in NYC relative to the most exhorbitant world rental conditions evidenced in the last 75 years, and barring some world-wide currency collapse and concomitant inflationary panic and flight-to-asset run, it is just the beginning of ongoing, ever-better Big Apple rental conditions, enroute to a deflationary credit and price collapse.
In the upcoming financial big game, I hope honest field umpires in all positions seeing the above infraction feel free to throw the lipsticking-the-bear penalty flag.
Oh, heavenly dayz, anybody who has read my previous comments would know that my attitude is vive la difference. Is there something bad about clapping your hands a certain way? I didn't think so.
I once knew a black guy who wouldn't eat any watermelon because this was supposed to be stereotypically black behavior. Even if it were, is there something wrong with that?
My daughter had a peculiar way, when she was a baby of sucking her 2 middle fingers and putting her other hand over her ear. Never saw any other baby before or since do that except my son, who tried it a few times as a baby, and then settled on the thumb.
Ah, the bigot finally giving justifications for his bigotry based on "facts!" Who needs anti-Semites!! Germans were highly accomplished and great contributors too!!!
Ignorance, intolerance and bigotry, that shows up commonly, is quite amazing, but something to be expected among dopes. Dopes, per se, are not bad people but they can be very dangerous when led by a propagandist. American Hitler is sure to exploit it.
People, listen up. I really, really don't like the the thin skinned behavior being exhibited. We are faced with the worst disaster this country has ever faced, now is NOT the time for it. I'm beginning to understand why mp, Conjure, crispyand cole, Hoopajoops and CSC left. They knew this was coming and didn't want to be a part of it...Let's pull it together folks, we're the ones that had the advanced warning. If we can't hold it together what chance does society at large have? Think about it, it's all our futures at stake.
I'm going out with my husband for the evening and I'm going to try and not allow the crisis to ruin that. We don't have much money but I we can hustle a few games and enjoy ourselves. There's not much time left for that I fear...
It just seems that there is a lot of history of regimes getting in over their heads, then printing frantically until they inflate the debt (and everything else) away. Why would that not applie to the born and bred crooks running the US?
bobn
Yep. Some very recent history, at that.
I remember reading Zimbabwe finally gave up when some genius realized how preposterous printing $100 trillion Zimbabwean notes is....
If someone had made an offensive racist or religious or sexist comment, I'm sure that you would expect that person to be called out or banned. If you think I'm thin-skinned about homophobic comments, you can shove your idiotic attitudes up your ignorant straight cunts.
Does that help you understand the word "offensive" a little better?
lawyerliz, I'm well aware you meant no offense with your remarks. It feels as though people are looking to be offended. Work has been a nightmare this entire week. Business actually picked up but the customers that are coming in are way past obnoxious. Arguing, picking fights, getting too inebriated (and on more than what I'm serving them). I had to throw three out today. It's escalating quickly and this is just a small town. I'm really picking up ugly, hateful vibes and it's beginning to really frighten me. I can handle myself but I truly fear for society as a whole as I've never done in my 42 years.
.....well, instead for the non-drinkers, you can have some REAL fun and attend a Town Hall Meeting. One last year we banned all languages except English Only.
--
"It just seems that there is a lot of history of regimes getting in over their heads, then printing frantically until they inflate the debt (and everything else) away. Why would that not applie to the born and bred crooks running the US?"
bobn,
Because Crooks running the US are NOT dopes, or simpletons! A solution that is obvious to all the dopes ain't gonna fly, or happen.
High inflation, say 10-20% for more than a year, would kill the US financial system in less time than working thru deflation and depression as Japan did. Deflation is already here and is here to stay for a while.
I can't at the moment think of any pecularly black mannerisms at the moment, but if I did, I wouldn't find them offensive. And why should I expect that a black person be ashamed of such a mannerism, unless there were something wrong with being black?
We will truly be a free and diverse society when we can glory in this stuff, instead of getting all defensive. If moving or clapping in a certain way identifies you as gay, so what, unless there is something wrong with being gay? I don't think so.
I liked the movie; I like Penn's performance, and I admired Milk if he was truly like the performance.
I think that the Italian attitude toward the nasty word meaning Italian it the best. Being Italian is wonderful. (Renaissance, excellent food, good design still; descent of Romans, etc, etc.) ANYTHING that means you are Italian is also wonderful, including the "w" word.
There are ways of making your point that don't involve pouring gasoline on the fire. It was that talent that I respected most in Tanta. For the sake of the board, I hope that you would consider that option.
Here is another one, substituting your "gays" with "women" "Do all women act in such an flightly manner? I once had a woman client who acted in the same flighty way."
Do you think a comment liked that deserves to be called out?
BSR, my understanding as well for the most part. Who knows, Conjure maybe devising a plan to save the World. I know a couple days before he posted his farewell he mentioned Conjure was working on possibly putting out another publication. Hopefully, he will...
MR(Unrated) writes:
LawyerLiz and Comrade Kristina,
If someone had made an offensive racist or religious or sexist comment, I'm sure that you would expect that person to be called out or banned. If you think I'm thin-skinned about homophobic comments, you can shove your idiotic attitudes up your ignorant straight cunts.
You're a complete fucking idiot, and a stupid troll.
Don't even respond to this guy, lawyerliz. He's just trying to say whatever he can to get you riled up. This is the internet.
Clearly someone who willingly watches Milk has a problem with homosexuals. Perhaps liz was making a comment regarding the stereotypes in Hollywood. I guess cowboy's just hide it better.
We are faced with the worst disaster this country has ever faced, now is NOT the time for it. Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 01.31.09 - 10:20 pm | #
We don't have much money but I we can hustle a few games and enjoy ourselves. There's not much time left for that I fear... Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 01.31.09 - 10:20 pm | #
With all due respect, Kristina. I'm a Kristina fan, but we aren't quite to WWII or Civil War level of crises here. We have 500,000 US casualties, millions of global deaths, two smoldering Japanese cities, famine, destruction of Europe, Pearl Harbor, a nation divided, families killing each other, peace gardens, dust bowls, and root cellars to go before we reach the worst crisis the US has ever faced. Maybe we'll get there, but the die have not been cast for such a fate as of yet.
Things just kinda seem to be devolving tonight. People just seem to be looking for fights.
theotherdeb
.
Concur. The party was way better last night, when we were throwing thread music clips at each other.
you are correct, my last comment was meant to be despicable. As despicable as the stereotyping comment that LawyerLiz made.
I'm confident that LawyerLiz meant no offense. That illustrates the level of ignorance.
I had a co-worker describe a successful contract negotiaion and "jewing the vendor down". I called him out on that one as well. I take LawyerLiz's level of ignorance in the same way as my co-worker.
BSR, I suppose that depends on how much fun you have at the BFF pizza parties...I don't get too enjoy them as much as I'd like as I have to be up at 6am Saturday for work...
I am somewhat flighty occasionally. And I like shoes. My hub once called my shoes the Imelda Marcos memorial shoe pile. (Along with being flighty, I am not neat.) Since I like being a girl, I don't mind being occasionally thought of as flighty. Not at a closing; not at court.
And yeah, I think that fear is permeating everything, and causing extreme grouchiness.
I'm sorry I pushed your buttons MR.
And I'm sorrier that Milk got killed, not even for being gay, but for a trivial political spat with a somewhat nutso guy, who was apparently under unbearable pressure of some kind. He
coulda been the first gay president!!
The typical Saturday night thread (Friday as well) tends to be a lot rowdier.
The other week was a verbal drunken debauch. And if you'd asked me three years if I'd ever been to a blog debauch, I'd have wondered what you were talking about.
But I do wonder two things:
if this site's gained coverage in the MSM, then it's going to attract many who are nervous, curious, scared. Would this include "anarchists" (so to speak) who just like to screw things up?
If people really are getting scared, is the drinking showing up here?
Haha BSR, my elderly uncle lives with us, he's a 77 year old first generation Italian/American. Loud, deaf, and an early riser. Even on my days off I don't get to sleep past 7 UGH...
homedad, as a bartender I can say with some certainty, the drinking is showing here...Check my own typing for reference...LOL Seriously though, I think it's a mixture or "all of the above"...
Boogus, I think it already has. I've heard Midwesterners on other blogs complaining about the California transplants in their community on an ever increasing basis..
Here is another one, substituting your "gays" with "women" "Do all women act in such an flightly manner? I once had a woman client who acted in the same flighty way."
Do you think a comment liked that deserves to be called out?
MR
.
Your logic is flawed. There is a "feminine" gesture language and a "masculine" gesture language, hence the widely-understood expressions "butch" and "femme." There are "femme" lesbians, and "butch" lesbians, for example. There are "femme" and "butch" gay men. These phrases are widely used inside the collection of subcultures that might be called the global gay community.
The above also implies that there is no particular gesture language use that can be characterized as "normal," if "normal" is code for "straight."
The simple observation that such a gesture language exists is just that, an observation, not an attack.
I think it already has. I've heard Midwesterners on other blogs complaining about the California transplants in their community on an ever increasing basis..
Comrade Kristina
That is why I moved out of Denver. I really miss the way it was but Like WLA people ruined it for me. There are some here already but seem to be decent people so far.
liz, I just got my last tax papers in today so I can do my taxes and use the past two years returns to give the loan officer. I have everything else they need together. I have my fingers crossed but hubby still hasn't found work so I'm getting scared. My income alone is going to be a crapshoot...
Yeah, day by day everyone seems to be getting more frayed as the economy "deleverages" uncontrollably. Protect your assets as best you can. We're all witness to the end of a huge, global debt bubble. I have to agree with Jas on this: there's still a whole lot of deflation yet to come ... after that, who really knows?
--
Why am I not concerned about inflation and my UST holdings?
Because every day I get warned, and questioned about my wisdom of holding on, by born-and-bred American dopes! "Printing Money" inflation dopes (PMID) are the most vocal and the most ignorant of dopes. They have been victimized by a myth. The USG borrows in the open market and does not print money. If it did the whole world financial system will collapse and not just have the crisis that we have now.
It is true that I lost some of my gains in the USTs this month, and there were many price declines over the past 27.5 years, I have a fantastic record for 15+ years in USTs and my correct long-term view. Usually, Americans respect a great record like that, but it doesn't seem to apply in this case. I have been getting advice from B&B to get out of my USTs for several years now. Maybe I have been lucky, or maybe I know something that most dont. Markets will force the USG to behave! Remember what Bill Clinton said, after being schooled by Robert Rubin, the bond market is lot more powerful than the US President!
My daughter had a peculiar way, when she was a baby of sucking her 2 middle fingers and putting her other hand over her ear. Never saw any other baby before or since do that except my son, who tried it a few times as a baby, and then settled on the thumb.
It feels as though people are looking to be offended. Work has been a nightmare this entire week. Business actually picked up but the customers that are coming in are way past obnoxious. Arguing, picking fights, getting too inebriated (and on more than what I'm serving them).
If by mud-duck, you refer to #4, then chalk it up to people just being pissed when they don't get their way.
Emotions take over and their most prevalent biases take over. That particular comment was from a woman who had a black co-worker get a sizable insurance settlement whereas hers wasn't near that size.
Trust me, some cases you just remember. Names go away, but the case facts and the situations stay...
Faster, higher, further?
hi!
thread music
YouTube - tom petty free falling
thank god last thread was getting putrified
First
Nemo
Hello. What are you doing?
Furst?
No surprise. Are they supposed to be different?
You crowd
You cramp
You're still
The champ
good time to be a renter; not such a good time to be an accidental landlord
"I live in a California beach community"
I will be absent for the rest of the evening on account of excessive envy.
(For whatever reason, I thought that Chez CR was in, like, Yorba Linda, or perhaps Mission Viejo.)
Otherwise, best wishes to all.
elgraccho writes:
good time to be a renter; not such a good time to be an accidental landlord
elgraccho | 01.31.09 - 7:33 pm | #
Its a good time not to have any debt. Or is it?
NMHC has to redo their index.
Here in DC I've definitely noticed softening in the rental market (seen listings with 2-3 months free), but I would not say we're at the point where rent is "falling fast."
When will landlords get a bailout? Will they split the bailout with the tenants?
Same thing is happening Seattle. The section I live in, Magnolia, I'm seeing 1/2 off 1st month's rent or 1st month free. Also, reduced deposits or no deposits at all. Can't wait until April when my lease is up.
tis true.
I am not complaining.
It's a good time to be a renter....
Or a first time buyer,
Or senior selling their mortgage free home,
Or a prudent refier,
Or a recent inheritor who wants to own his own,
The world always sucks for someone.
@topher
if you believe we're in a deflationary trend, then cash is king and debt is evil.
in inflationary times, the opposite.
and glod? who knows?
Hey, I posted this link early this morning. Oh well.
It has a nice quote on expected job losses in NYC...
"According to the Independent Budget Office of New York City, the outlook is bleak. The agency expects the city to lose 243,000 jobs from the peak of early 2008."
Rents have nowhere to go but down. And all the new condo towers and condo conversions on the West Side of Manhattan are now quietly looking for rental tenants.
I live in a California beach community and there are usually very few rental units available. I went for a walk this morning, and I was amazed at all the "For Rent" and "For Lease" signs. The market is changing rapidly here too. - CR
Cr, recalibrate your "RE goggles." It has really only been in the last 8 years that we've seen the tightness you are talking about. In the mid 90s there was always the 1940s or 50s or 70s shack or 3 blocks away fourplex at a good rent if you weren't picky. It's unfair to use the last 8 years as a baseline.
Luckily rents (and prices) can't fall in San Francisco. People tell me this every day. That's because SF is world class and special. not like the backwater of... uh... NYC.
well regardless, SF is in California, and we all know what that means... by definition it MUST improve first so that it can lead the nation out of its problems.
Only California can do it! It's so special!
You know, California would be the 8th biggest economy on Earth if it weren't held back by the rest of the US.
Did I forget any other silly pro-California rants? Just want to get them out of the way.
"Or senior selling their mortgage free home"
not sure about that one - last year would have been infinitely better, esp for a place with deferred maintenance
"You know, California would be the 8th biggest economy on Earth if it weren't held back by the rest of the US."
Back in the day, it was the 6th biggest economy. They're slipping. We need to let go of California.
Its a good time to be a renter.
On the other hand, its not such a good time to be AvalonBay.
Asking rents aren't budging anywhere near me, but accepted rents are. At the end of the boom a lot of dead-on-arrival condo projects converted to apartments, so we saw a rapid increase in apartment vacancies here in SW Minneapolis.
I drive by a lot of these places, and they seem more dark than they should be, but I'm not sure what the rental vacancies have been like.
Overall though, I doubt it's good. the overbilding in RE translated to overbuilding in apartments.
@tehachapi
seniors unloading a mortgage-free house at today's prices (at least in bubble and near-bubble areas) are probably facing some serious recalibration of their previous financial plans--assuming for the sake of argument that the paid-off house represented, say, 30% of the the household net assets at the top of the market.
I'll be curious to see about vacation home rentals in beach communities this summer.
We go with another family each August to DE or MD and next week is typically when we start checking the RE listings.
And as to the "bad bank"?
What a bunch of idiots.
Rob Dawg, I've lived here a LONG time. This rental market has been tight for many many years - and that has been true for most of SoCal.
best wishes.
We can see how well Caribou Barbi will manage her state's finances with oil less than $50. I read where she's lookin' for some stimulus.
Someone thinks they've found the bottom:
BRADDOCK JOURNAL; Rock Bottom For Decades, But Showing Signs of Life - NY Times
In 2005, at the HBB and patrick.net, there were long discussion that SFR owners with big mortgages would face job mobility problems when the downturn hit. In the old Reagan phrase, they can't vote with their feet and move to cheaper areas or to places where jobs might be available.
Unless they walkaway.
CR -
Yeah, so living someplace a long time gives you special insight?
I've been to California for a full week and I know that y'all are tri-lingual in English, Spanish, and Kornish (mix of spanish/korean).
And you know, the guy that sold me the street order of Dim SumSa knew what he was doing...
Wow, that PA town is at the bottom. That's a picture at how other towns will look in a few years.
Jesse, Derringer, Mish.. These people are basically saying we are proper fudged. We don't know yet because no central banker or head of state wants to be the first to announce it..
Oh well. Not much I can do.. Off to get drunk.
"Did I forget any other silly pro-California rants?"
uh, how about the one where the total population of MN is less than half of the population of just one of our counties?
Well, if rents go into freefall nationwide, that will just make it necessary for home prices to fall even further, assuming some relationship akin to parity between the cost of renting and the cost of owning.
It should contribute to an overshoot, rather than the nice tidy regression to the norm that people are now praying for.
Of course, you drown just as dead in 10 feet of water as in a water depth of 50 feet, so the point of view of our zombie money center banks that are already insolvent, the issue is somewhat academic.
"are probably facing some serious recalibration of their previous financial plans"
right, that was my point - they aren't in quite the same cushy position as the other hypothetical cases mentioned.
being any kind of an RE seller just sucks now. NOTHING is moving over 300/sqft in areas where 400/sqft was flying out the door with multiple offers a year ago.
Let's see... homeownership falling AND rents falling. Gee, some people didn't think those things could happen at the same time. Luckily most of those fools tucked their tail and ran away from here a while back.
This is validation of two points -- (1) household consolidation and (2) income sensitivity of rental prices. Neither of these bode well, but neither are we stunned or surprised.
OT for dryfly, from Mish....
Mainstreet Bank of Forest Lake, one of Minnesota's largest and oldest community banks, has received a cease-and-desist order from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., alleging "hazardous lending and lax collection practices."
Applying valuations to the assets that are realistic in today's markets, and offering to buy them at those prices (anywhere from 5 to 20 cents on the dollar, I suspect), would finish off many if not most US banks. Simple as that. I also suspect that if you offer less than 80 cents, many banks would also fail. There are still people, even if by now it's hard to believe, who argue that the assets can provide a profit down the line, like Will Straw, Center for American Progress, in the first video below. No they cannot and they will not. We may call them "assets" till we're blue in the tonsils, but most of these "assets" are wagers, slips for bets on horses that lost the races they were in. And unless you have a time machine, you can not have those races run again. Suggesting that you can is for the senile crowd.
--Automatic Earth
Well, if rents go into freefall nationwide, that will just make it necessary for home prices to fall even further, assuming some relationship akin to parity between the cost of renting and the cost of owning.
linear algebra | 01.31.09 - 7:53 pm | #
Yep, along with unemployment, falling rent will crush any recovery in housing. I do not think that fixing the financial system really matters anymore. Those who need credit to keep going are not going to qualify.
slips for bets on horses that lost the races they were in
adornosghost | 01.31.09 - 7:55 pm | #
They didn't just lose the races they were in, they broke their legs halfway and were not-so-humanely destroyed.
A lot of my family is from Western PA and I was born outside of Pittsburgh.
Parents moved away when I was a toddler and my father referred to it as "the escape"; and that was before the '70s bottoming.
Although some parts of the area have rebuilt, there are still some real disaster areas. Even the nicer areas are exceptionally affordable compared to other areas. My home in that general area would probably be about 30 - 35% less than here.
Of course, you also have to contend with a lot more snow/cold, mountainous areas and the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Did I forget any other silly pro-California rants?
Yearning To Learn | 01.31.09 - 7:40 pm | #
Weather? Or not.
Let's see... homeownership falling AND rents falling. Gee, some people didn't think those things could happen at the same time. Luckily most of those fools tucked their tail and ran away from here a while back.
This is validation of two points -- (1) household consolidation and (2) income sensitivity of rental prices. Neither of these bode well, but neither are we stunned or surprised.
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) | 01.31.09 - 7:55 pm | #
Sounds vaguely familiar but for the life of me the name(s) escape me.
Perhaps because I was busy selling off all my investment real estate by April 2006 bcause I was concerned about asset exposure and falling rents.
I want to see some web 2.0 geek create a "Kill the Zombie Banks" game, similar to the Bailout Game thing that was floating around.
@linear algebra
the decline in rents will likely be as uneven as the runup in prices. what i'm seeing in rural souther new england (or is that an oxymoron?) is an increasing vacancy rate, coupled with a spike in folks trying to unload multi-unit properties at more or less fire-sale prices (at least compared to what stuff was changing hands for in 2005).
the good news is that if the properties actually change hands at a bit below current asking prices, they can be economical for the new owners at rents and occupancy rates currently in evidence.
that bad news is that if occupancy rates continue to decline (folks move back toward the cities), it's pretty much game over for a bunch of investor types.
Ok, I cannot resist:
Jas, you are the biggest dope I've ever come across, and, what's more, you've oblivious to your own ignorance. Jas, I apologize for calling you an antisemite. You don't know enough to be an antisemite: from your statement below and earlier, it appears you don't know what Judaism or Jewish people even are. In fact, you may well have them confused with the Irish, from what I can tell.
Whatever! As long as you and your buds rule the website, I suppose.
Jas, racial groups do not have the backward-ass medieval characteristics you so assuredly assign them. You are utterly disproved by the daily experience of 300 Million Americans who work side-by-side and intermarry with peoples from all backgrounds. Your race-theories, and your absurd fantasies about the imminent collapse of the United States need to be called out as the crap they are. I'm done with them.
At any rate, NO ONE should care a fig what Jas has to say about any group of people or nation, since he's utterly ignorant of the history and society of the United States--and almost certainly elsewhere.
He's a loser, he's anti-scientific regarding race and nationality, he's a moron, and I don't know why y'all bother.
To incessantly preach subjects about which one knows nothing whatsoever is, possibly, forgivable. I'll leave that to you other readers. As for me, I'd be glad if Jas--little petty Gollum-like fuck that he is--lost his internet access and would retire back beneath his rock.
That said, I previously declared that I was done with Calculated Risk: I apologize for commenting again. Bad form on my part.
Jas Jain writes:
The use of the label "anti-Semite," or "anti-Semitic," by some is laughable. To me, someone must wish and want harm to the innocent Jews, or Jews in general, to be called an anti-Semite. Otherwise, the term is used to suppress free speech and valid criticism.
All groups have some tendencies that are fair subject of criticism. Criticism is very healthy! As a matter of fact, some 80-100 years ago, some very public criticism of Jews in New York City was very healthy and helpful and positive for the Jews (I have read more Jewish history, in America and outside, than vast majority of Jews; it was part of my general reading of history to understand the American system and the economy). Suppressing valid criticism is the worst thing that anyone can do for himself, or the group that he belongs to.
Jas
Jas Jain | Homepage | 01.31.09 - 7:30 pm | #
And about that time, I was advising the better half that it was a good time to NOT get into landlord business.
In AZ, pretty much name your price, within reason.
Something is better than nothing, or so the poor landlords tell me.
I do not think that fixing the financial system really matters anymore. Those who need credit to keep going are not going to qualify.
Blackhalo | 01.31.09 - 7:57 pm | #
We are in violent agreement on that point, hence my ongoing opposition to continued bailouts. We've found ourselves in a deep hole and the solution is to keep digging??? I believe even some of the more level-headed types (Roubini, Noland, etc.) are supporting such efforts because they can't conceive of what the world will look like if they don't prop up the dead bodies of those institutions that currently comprise it.
"Heres the logic (which follows directly from Milton Friedmans permanent income hypothesis, by the way): suppose that the government introduces a new program that will cause it to spend $100 billion a year every year from now on. To pay for this, it will have to raise taxes by $100 billion a year, permanently and if consumers take this into account, they might well cut their spending enough to offset the increase in government purchases." -Krugman
When will the Professor figure out that we entered a brave new world.
Jeff, Jas is a real person. He's less anonymous than 99% of the folks who post here and/or elsewhere. If you're going to use those kinds of anonymous attacks, why not return the favor and give a full name and current city of residence?
@Tehachapi
around here, $125/sf is high median. i have a nice victorian that's probably worth that, but the current buyers are topping out around $100.
if rents go into freefall nationwide, that will just make it necessary for home prices to fall even further
I've been fairly sure that the K-wave winter started since late 2006 -
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=fin_de_siecle
Jas isn't the only one with published predictions, you know.
The odds are good that we'll see a secondary housing price downturn overlaid on the "anticipated S-curve" currently in motion. In other words, general expectation is a repeat of the 1990-1996 downturn and you can see that in today's price curve so far.
Imagine a new downturn superimposed on the downturn. In fact, I think it started in December based on CA statistics.
I doubt if the financial system can handle a second wave of 50% losses. I'm hoping it's not true but...
.
what i'm seeing in rural souther new england (or is that an oxymoron?) is an increasing vacancy rate, coupled with a spike in folks trying to unload multi-unit properties at more or less fire-sale prices (at least compared to what stuff was changing hands for in 2005).
the good news is that if the properties actually change hands at a bit below current asking prices, they can be economical for the new owners at rents and occupancy rates currently in evidence.
elgraccho | 01.31.09 - 7:59 pm | #
My sister in Chatham is having trouble with a rental that until recently had a waiting list. The Cape could be a bloodbath. Part of the problem is the landlords with absurdly low costs. They'll always undercut if necessary.
My email is posted.
Was in the bank this morning doing business and caught a snippet on FoxNews(their lobby TV) that some republican congressmen were proposing a 4% blanket mortgage rate on all mortgages for a two year period. Even if you had a mortgage, it would revert to 4% for two years.
The idea is to put a floor under housing prices.
Idiots.
Sorry you feel that way. I still value your opinion the same as before
@Mugabe:
I'm being too harsh today. My patience is too thin and I'm taking it out on others (e.g. you). My apologies.
there are some posters who push my buttons, and I transferred those feelings to you based on one single post that you wrote that in the end was unrelated to my ire.
I don't want CR to devolve like Mish's site did (IMO) and thus we must be vigilant with our posts. The commentary is generally more important to me than the post headings (sorry CR).
but in the end I'm irritated with my day, and shouldn't have posted in this mood.
My apologies to you specifically, and to others. (i.e. the Californians... although I still maintain you're not THAT special).
i'd better sign of now for the night before I insult anybody else.
A good night to you all.
(yes, CA has more people than MN. but I'm not claiming that MN will lead us anywhere, nor that it "needs" to improve first.)
Yep, just got 20% off my rent for a lease renewal for a 1 bdrm in AZ! Plowing the monthly rent savings into GLD, SDS, SLW, EEV as well as some likely ill-fated JPM puts.
@ Senorito...
In AZ, pretty much name your price, within reason.
"...they can't conceive of what the world will look like... "
Try telling Krugman that....good luck.
I want to see some web 2.0 geek create a "Kill the Zombie Banks" game, similar to the Bailout Game thing that was floating around.
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ | 01.31.09 - 7:59 pm | #
The DOOM series for PCs had great tools for mapping your own environments. Perhaps someone will come out with one for Wall Street; I'd love to try the chain gun there. Some would opt for the BFG, of course, but you don't get the same type of "ripping bodies apart" gratification.
p.s.: Next up, the DC version?
--
The two biggest deflationary forces for 2009 that I had identified:
Both would be in high gear by mid-2009.
Inflation dopes would keep singing the same song of "Printing Money" and default possibilities by the US govt. Keep dreaming.
Jas
Ok--
What if none of this pyramid scam can be fixed? (high probability)
What are you going to do when they come for you?
"The odds are good that we'll see a secondary housing price downturn overlaid"
yup, I still haven't seen much of an explanation as to why we won't follow Japan's decade+ of endless sequential quarters of falling RE prices - we certainly seem to be copying every move they made to get that ball rolling.
Thanks YTL...accepted.
And all those recent speculators in California had current rents and then some priced into their P/R calculations as far as the eye can see.
Whatever shall they do in the face of a rent collapse?
Things are about to get even more interesting out here in Cali-land.
"but I'm not claiming that MN will lead us anywhere"
of course not. it never has, except in terms of governors who appeared in 'predator' and genius midget rock musicians.
Now, now. We must bear in mind the indignities The Raj has to endure in "real life."
Don't Cry for Me Tehachapi do you know Jas? Your not the marine who likes the cowboys are you?
.................
On topic: My sister is a property manager for one of the fancy residences in Boston. They usually run about 95%+ occupancy. They are at eighty and change... As I understand it they arent taking it well....
...........
Broward,
I agree this is far from your typical housing cycle, which is why I've consistently stated that Cali at '96 prices is by far the best-case outcome of which I can conceive -- and even that's a stretch for me. You don't want to know the worst.
The K-winter is definitely upon us; or, as McHugh puts it we're on the downside of EW Grand Supercycle IV.
The idea is to put a floor under housing prices.
No, the idea is to maintain discretionary income. Theoretically, the K-Wave crash can be suspended if total interest payments == real economic growth.
In other words, absent all other factors, if real growth is 4%, and interest rate on all debt is 4%, the bubble could be kept intact indefinitely.
They're trying to redirect the interest payments to high-income non-spenders back into low-income consumption spending.
.
Things are about to get even more interesting out here in Cali-land.
sc | 01.31.09 - 8:08 pm | #
The State is busy printing Sactobucks to pawn off as legal tender as we speak.
"and default possibilities by the US govt."
your faith in the federal government in general and treasury dept and fed in particular is truly touching, Jas, especially coming after such a deeply horrible month as an investor. I wish I had such infinite faith in their competence and such a capacity to absorb such deep and quick losses.
CA : you said that people are still loosing their homes because they couldn't afford it but the credit crunch now is denting into the jumbo loans so maybe the economic downturn is at work here ?
Mugabe, I waited until I saw your response.
Gracias, and good night.
Peace all.
Theoretically, the K-Wave crash can be suspended if total interest payments == real economic growth.
In a nutshell, that's what Greenspan tried to do via 2001-2003 cuts.
The problem is that the System circumvented his intent.
.
Jas,
Arent you counting different sides of the equation. Falling salaries = less consumption and lower prices. Falling rents = more consumption. Am I missing something?
.....
In other words, absent all other factors, if real growth is 4%, and interest rate on all debt is 4%, the bubble could be kept intact indefinitely.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 01.31.09 - 8:11 pm | #
What about the problem of depreciating assets like houses as well as the holding costs?
"Don't Cry for Me Tehachapi do you know Jas? Your not the marine who likes the cowboys are you?"
no, the central valley is something i drive through, not to.
cowboys? now that's insulting.
The State is busy printing Sactobucks to pawn off as legal tender as we speak.
Yup. Be interesting to see how that lil experiment works out.
Heaven help me, I've read this blog and the comments for a long time, and for the very first time, I'm saying "Amen!" to a Jas Jain post.
Within 100 years California will pass a ballot initiative to rejoin Mexico. Washington will say, "Adios."
--
jeff,
You couldnt contain yourself and had to rant. I am ignorant and you claim to know?!
Dopes and real intolerant people reveal themselves readily. Since you have revealed yourself to your heart's content, you are dismissed!
This blog does not need intolerant people like you anyway. Natural selection at its best!
Jas
BTW, Harry Dent has a new book out.
He timed the last great boom incorrectly because he didn't foresee the housing/credit/currency bubble pulling things forward a few years, but the demographics issues he identifies are still there.
L-shaped (non-)recovery anyone?
When are the rent reductions coming to Silicon Valley? I'm paying $2000 a month for a one-bedroom apartment. Admittedly, it's a damn nice apartment, but why is it so damn expensive? There's better deals to be had on similar apartments nearby, but I can't find anything better than about $300 lower.
I'm hoping that Sun and AMD will finally die the death that they so richly deserve and lay everyone off. To quote Jack Nicholson from Batman: "This town needs an enema."
BushCo really had a successful presidency. The pigs at t trough (Bushes constancy) fed really well.
Income of 400 richest Americans doubled during Bush era
Jeremy Gantz
Published: Saturday January 31, 2009
The 21st century Gilded Age party really got going before the U.S. economy went bust.
It was a party disproportionately enjoyed the richest Americans, the 400 wealthiest of which actually doubled their share of all U.S. income between 1996 and 2006, new statistics released by the Internal Revenue Service show. The average income of those 400 people actually doubled to $263.3 million during the first six years of George W. Bush's presidency, according to the data.
Between 2005 and 2006, those 400 Americans saw their income rise nearly 23 percent, and through the first six years of the Bush administration their average tax rate fall by a third, to 17.2 percent, Bloomberg reported.
That 17.2 percent tax rate was the lowest the group has paid on average since the IRS began keeping track of the country's 400 biggest taxpayers in 1992, the agency's data shows.
Rob,
Frankly whats worth more, a Cali IOU or an equivalently denominated Federal Reserve note???
Now move the idea to Texas, or Idaho, or Wyoming. Watch the cloud of red mist float over the FED as heads explode.
So something else for the reading list:
What do you recommend as a relatively straightforward book on the Elliott Wave?
I've read up on TA (O'Brien courtesy of PCA) and re-read segments of Graham.
I don't have the time for long, convoluted stuff on E-Wave, but would settle for something straightforward.
Thanks
"When are the rent reductions coming to Silicon Valley? "
rents crashed there in 2001, they should be weakening significantly in the coming year. in any case, i'm sure you could find something near the 85/101 for less than 2/3 of that price for the equivalent without too much work.
you are dismissed! ~ JJ
I'm going to head up to Tehachapi and catch a football game with you some time Jas. Faak you're a hoot!
.........
At this point, I suspect TPTB are focused only on fixing cash flows. The reality is that there's two problems.
In terms of an eletronics model, there are huge capacitance charges built up that have to discharge (debt).
But the immediate problem is that those charges have altered the current flows (cash flows) to the point of systemic failure.
My reasoning is that the System fails no matter what for these reasons. Even if they fix the cash flows, the debt in place creates new problems. Toss in entitlement cash flows in the near future...
The Thing is toast. They'll probably be able to wrestle around with it for another year or two, maybe even do a partial reboot like Japan for awhile. But ultimately there's a Systemic failure in the near future.
.
.
I want to see some web 2.0 geek create a "Kill the Zombie Banks" game, similar to the Bailout Game thing that was floating around.
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ | 01.31.09 - 7:59 pm | #
The contraction that the financial industry is going to have to go through, with the demise of the MBS->CDO->CDS chain is going to make the housing crash in CA look like child's play. NY and NYC are scrood.
Within 100 years California will pass a ballot initiative to rejoin Mexico.
reptillian | 01.31.09 - 8:13 pm | #
Heck, Mexico may not exist as a coherent state in 10 years, since they'll have to start importing oil well before then. Take away oil export revenues and alien remittances and there's nothing much left but drug-running and tourism, and the latter can't survive the former.
Dopes and real intolerant people reveal themselves readily. Since you have revealed yourself to your heart's content, you are dismissed!
This blog does not need intolerant people like you anyway. Natural selection at its best!
LOL, Jas.
Seriously, the incongruity of what you wrote is actually funny.
pot, meet kettle.
That said, Jas, you're provocative and right on some points.
Heck, Mexico may not exist as a coherent state in 10 years
I think the vegas line is even money on five years!
.....
Jas, you once told me, after I modestly suggested that you were ill-informed about the racial make-up of the American South, that you are always eager to learn. You really did. You remain ill-informed about nearly everything, yet lack the modesty that would allow you to increase your knowledge and, perhaps, someday, become less a bigot. I didn't believe you, because of the disgusting self-regard and haughtiness...but, you never know, right?
You could, Jas, become less of an ignorant bigot, and learn about the world you diminish...but only if you recognized that you don't already know everything.
My reasoning is that the System fails no matter what for these reasons.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 01.31.09 - 8:18 pm | #
Mine too.
I know that there are some folks here who have some precious metals. Does anyone have any thoughts on getting silver maple leafs vs plain jane 1 oz silver rounds or 10oz silver bars?
Same for gold - is there any reason to pay the premium for a gold maple leaf vs getting 1oz pamp suisse bars with an assay card?
Sorry for the OT.
"A lot of my family is from Western PA and I was born outside of Pittsburgh."
Wife's family from the Altoona area.
Take away oil export revenues and alien remittances and there's nothing much left but drug-running and tourism, and the latter can't survive the former.
I agree Mexico is heading for a crash, and will not be exporting oil shortly.
However, I spent time in Guerro a while back, and the revolution is not dead, and a portion of the population is politically literate.
Watch out----
Broward,
Sooner. Street level confidence is failing fast, and I hear the craziest stuff from formerly normal people, friends and acquaintances.
Really, really nutty stuff. Lots of folks who pissed through the savings, 401K, all of it to save the house. You can guess how it ends.
These people are pissed, and want free stuff PDQ. They have little time left, and with no real prospects, and well, people tend to make their own, know what I mean. Couple that with endless days of watching Hollywoods latest and copious amounts of first-person shooters on X-Box, and the attitude starts to get funky.
Mike,
I have both Eagles and bars. IMHO, get a few of those that anyone will easily recognize JIC but don't bother with the premium for the bulk of your purchases.
i've been to Moscow recently and rentals are falling fast there
Mike,
If you go the silver route, consider "junk silver". Best of both worlds -- low price, instant recognizability.
Portland, Oregon here. I'm seeing some "looseness" in apartment rentals, if you go by the big signs offering special deals in the complexes. But it's a slowdown rather than a panic. And venturing into the Beaverton shopping districts, things were still very busy, lots of traffic, hard to get a parking space. You would never know there was anything wrong.
The Thing is toast. They'll probably be able to wrestle around with it for another year or two, maybe even do a partial reboot like Japan for awhile. But ultimately there's a Systemic failure in the near future.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 01.31.09 - 8:18 pm | #
The annoying thing is that no one but the bloggers (based on what I see on MSM) are looking closely at the mechanics of the failure. So TPTB continue to try and save these vampire (prefer that as they continue to suck blood and money) banks.
Now my expectaton is that the reason is mostly politcal as the shareholders/bondholders of these financial institutions that are getting the largess of the gov's attention are probably, big time campain contributors. Until new money brings in new politicians (congressmen in particular), I do not see a turn around in policy.
The one item that give me great hope, were the sucesses in Ron Paul and O' in raising funding from smaller, on line contributors. Ideally this will allow non-bank candidates to unseat those who voted for TARP in the primaries and '10 elections.
--
Jeff,
You have bad manners too (to say that you were done and then not be done).
What part of "you are dismissed!" don't you get? Even dopes get that right.
BTW, dopes are not bad or stupid people; they are just brainwashed beyond recovery. You seem to be way beyond that mild and common infliction among "educated" Americans.
Jas
"is there any reason"
eagles are generally easier to sell. the downside is that they are amongst the ugliest bullion coins, while maple leafs are probably the most beautiful, as long as you ignore the queen and focus on the leaf.
swiss bars might get dinged 2-3% when you sell relative to eagles.
Comrade tj
By junk silver do you mean older US coins that are either 40% or 90% silver content or are you referring to something else?
Also, is Apmex a reputable dealer? My local coin/bullion dealers have higher markups than I'd care to pay.
Only California can do it! It's so special!
Did I forget any other silly pro-California rants? Just want to get them out of the way.
Yearning To Learn | 01.31.09 - 7:40 pm | #
Bingo - Bye Bye California dream i.e w/o "bubbles" you are nothing special !
Pavel:
And that's probably the reason that she's not there now (Altoona that is, not her family).
G'night folks.
These people are pissed, and want free stuff PDQ.
Senorito American Mugabe | 01.31.09 - 8:26 pm | #
From Wall St. to Falling Down. Just like that.
NY and NYC are scrood.
Blackhalo
I live om NYC, and I think so as well. If the estimate I posted from the Budget office here holds, 240k jobs lost from the peak of 2008, then prices and rents may go much lower than the crash in 90/91.
Blackhalo,
I think the reason they're doing what they're doing is partly due to a fundamental misunderstanding of the problem. The collapse of the financial system isn't the disease, it's the symptom.
"Bye Bye California dream i.e w/o "bubbles" you are nothing special !"
LA had a brutal real estate crash in the 1890s after a soaring bubble in the 1880s. somehow, it recovered. it has happened a few times since, and will probably happen again. i've worn flip-flops and a t-shirt in a semi-outdoor environment all day, btw.
A new question occurred to me: What is it about the system that is worth saving?
By junk silver do you mean older US coins that are either 40% or 90% silver content
Mike in Long Island | 01.31.09 - 8:35 pm | #
Yes. Wish I had more myself. Plus, as someone once mentioned, they're great for educating kids.
Jas, you don't "get" to dismiss people, and you don't get to define words. Where does this ridiculous haughtiness come from? Do you fancy yourself a noble? We don't do that here. You really do not understand the US at all, yet pontificate about it endlessly.
Jas. Your still an asshole.
CR.....
I never would have mistaken you for an Orange County Dood....Geeze - was I off-base.
Anyway - VERY GOOD last thread. Your friend Ramsey Su makes a great argument for it being a good time to rent vs. trying to keep head above water. I never gave much thought about it.
240k jobs lost from the peak of 2008, then prices and rents may go much lower than the crash in 90/91.
fried | 01.31.09 - 8:37 pm | #
So, back in 06 ish when I heard that CA housing was going for 11 to 13x income, when historical norms were 2.5 - 3x, I knew that was not sustainable and that a reversal was on the way. I was somewhat surprized it took as long as it did.
Recently I had heard that the Financial industry was at 15% GDP, pre-bubble burst and that historical norms were 3%. If one in five bankers/stock analysts etc are pink-slipped, that is going to hurt. NYC in particular.
Jas, so glad every time you post, I'm probably one of the oldest posters(age) and always learn something.
--
"LA had a brutal real estate crash in the 1890s after a soaring bubble in the 1880s. somehow, it recovered. it has happened a few times since, and will probably happen again. i've worn flip-flops and a t-shirt in a semi-outdoor environment all day, btw."
Don't Cry for Me Tehachapi,
We have home price data for San Diego and it had some great bubbles and busts (79% and 89%, if I recall) after the Civil War. However, the US was not among the top 5 producers in the world before 1871. America was 27-year old then and now is 78-year old on various supports.
Don't expect America to bounce back from the current conditions like it did in earlier era. It is old and sick.
Jas
"Don't expect America to bounce back from the current conditions like it did in earlier era. It is old and sick."
Jas, i wasn't talking about the country as a whole, just LA, which has had nasty housing bear markets many times.
and I don't expect meaningful economic growth to return until the median baby boomer dies. at that point, who knows. but it will probably be nicer than rajasthan on the whole.
jas is NSA
"I think the reason they're doing what they're doing is partly due to a fundamental misunderstanding of the problem. The collapse of the financial system isn't the disease, it's symptom."
Of course. Whatever else Jas may know or not know, he understands this. The problem is a moral one first.
Anything further along this line is decidedly off-topic here.
The best mechanics in the world can repair the best automobile, but if the driver is habitually drunk it's to no avail.
Mike--just google junk silver and you will see tons of it.
Also, in terms of buying gold or silver, it depends on your perspective.
If you think the world is going to explode and you are going to need to use a PM as currency, then you should get it in a variety of different forms--most in fairly small denominations (unless you plan on making a major purchase). Someone on this blog once posted a very interesting blog from Argentina about how they got through their problems. The writer stated that, in retrospect, they wished they had small gold rings to trade. Just tried to find the blog, but could not.
If you are just wanting PM for investment, then buy it in the form that has best re-sale. Someone on this blog can probably tell you what that would be.
Just MHO.
--
"Jas, you don't "get" to dismiss people"
jeff,
You said that you were done and then said that you were surely done after one more post. We now know that you are not a man that keeps his words. That is far worse than many things about a man. Since you have called me many names, you are scum. Now, get lost and show some shame by keeping your words.
Jas
g'night this is getting boring
For all you guys talking coinz, isn't there a business opportunity there? If you could find a reputable mint that could put together and certify a coin with 2.50$ in gold and 2.50$ in silver and start cranking out the 10 Hopajoop coin and sell them 10 for 100$ on late-nite, sham-wow TV.
Why are we all still here? Isn't Iceland the best place to be at some point? Meaning they were the first to crash so potentially the first to recover?
My complex has had a rash of vacancies recently and their "move in special" is $100 less than it was 10 months ago which was $100 less than what I moved in on.
Of course this rate is for new move-in's only. At the same time lady at the rental office told me to "work with them" because I've been a solid renter. So what's the best way to "threaten to move out" if I really have no intention of doing so?
PSGirl,
I would be buying it mostly as a means of diversification. The thought of having some "tangible" money available is somewhat appealing as well.
I'm gonna take all my cash out of the bank as I heard all the banks are going to turn into sperm banks next week... oh, you mean there's some other "bad bank"?
blackhalo,
I think that business model is gonna get thrown out the window as more b&bd's sell their TVs to stay in their homes...
why is Jaswant Jain (a mawari) critising Jews. It is a bit like a person who molests 8 year olds complaining about guys having trophy wives. Seriously, ask non-marwari indians what they think of marwaris..
So what's the best way to "threaten to move out" if I really have no intention of doing so?
YLSP | 01.31.09 - 8:56 pm | #
Tell them you want to move in to one of thier empty places for the move-in rate, but that you'd be happy to stay where you are at that rate. It cost them a pretty penny to turn-over a place so you REALLY should be paying lees thatn that.
I don't know that the U.S.A. is any lazier or more greedy than any other gaggle of humans, given the same nearly limitless opportunities to make fools of themselves. And it does seem that fools from every part of the planet are eager to come here and be bigger fools. MY DH came here 25 years ago thinking the streets were paved with gold. He'd make a lot of money, and go home, trailing clouds of glory. Just human nature.
Jas--I will not leave. Not yet. I'll see how it goes here for a bit, I think, unless other posters ask me to leave--by they way, they have asked you to leave.
Jas, when you have the patience to learn about the world, I'll accept you back into the fold; until then, you must leave. Sorry.
You wrote:
Jas Jain writes:
"Jas, you don't "get" to dismiss people"
jeff,
You said that you were done and then said that you were surely done after one more post. We now know that you are not a man that keeps his words. That is far worse than many things about a man. Since you have called me many names, you are scum. Now, get lost and show some shame by keeping your words.
Jas
Jas Jain | Homepage | 01.31.09 - 8:52 pm | #
I think that business model is gonna get thrown out the window as more b&bd's sell their TVs to stay in their homes...
YLSP | 01.31.09 - 8:58 pm | #
I dunno. I think you could run a PowePoint presentation of the charts that CR put up last night and the phones would be ringing. You would just need a Tony Robins, or Kevin Trudeau type to push the fear buttions and you would be rolling in the dough.
Outsider writes:
Indeed; very amusing. It might have been moreso were it not for certain recent and unpleasant personal events.
This has been fun, but I see it is time for me to go. Bye, all.
Nemo | Homepage | 01.31.09 - 10:11 am | #
Nemo??? Nemo???
Outsider | 01.31.09 - 10:43 am | #
Looking for nemo statement but no entery from Nemo at that time any info? what happened lots of mentors leaving these days. Very sad.
--
"Jas, i wasn't talking about the country as a whole, just LA, which has had nasty housing bear markets many times."
Yes, SoCal was the big new new thing during and following the railroads era. Many booms and busts, but since it was real money and not as much leverage the booms didn't last as long as they do now because of the debt and leverage.
Also, the current boom was statewide and nationwide. Hell, it was global. Therefore, the bust would last a very long time. It is a different beast than the past booms and busts that were more local.
Jas
The Obama administration has yet to figure out how to deal with the complete failure of the American banking system. This systemic banking crisis
will mean a run on the banks beginning next week and the stock markets to drop 20%. Only immediate nationalization of most banks next week can stop such a terrible occurrence!!
In a mostly sane world, the relationship between income and housing expense (rent or mortgage) would govern the 'worth' or 'value' of residential housing. We know that incomes for all but the highest paid 10% (or so) of the population have been essential flat for nearly a decade, but housing has increased dramatically. But that ratio (about 1 to 3) has lots of history behind it and is like a magnet on housing over the long haul.
Now we are getting major unemployment due to globalization and US business declines, and the short/mid term outlook for employment is grim. There are no growth industries on the short/mid term horizon to restart income increases, and having a large unemployed (or temp/part-time workers) pool will drag down the income numbers for some time to come.
At the base, this is the dilemma. We don't need increased lending (except to prevent complete collapse of the housing market through walk-aways and foreclosures), we need growth creating jobs. The banks debts on bad lending are fake wealth now. There is nothing real to support those debts, and the financial institutions that hold them.
Since other nations will see increased unemployment that competes for US jobs, undermining domestic incomes, this is a race to the bottom, and housing is the tail, not the dog.
We can argue all year about saving or not saving the banks from their errors, but that seems immaterial to the basic flaws in the economy which make employment precarious. Why hire people if businesses are imploding? Or that cheaper workers outside the US are available for many US jobs?
Weak banks and cliff-diving housing and souring national debt are symptoms, not causes. Who will hire the workers is the big question. I see no answers except 1930's-type mass employment programs paid by society as a whole through the government - and that is far from a guaranteed outcome.
In a mostly sane world, the relationship between income and housing expense (rent or mortgage) would govern the 'worth' or 'value' of residential housing. We know that incomes for all but the highest paid 10% (or so) of the population have been essential flat for nearly a decade, but housing has increased dramatically. But that ratio (about 1 to 3) has lots of history behind it and is like a magnet on housing over the long haul.
Now we are getting major unemployment due to globalization and US business declines, and the short/mid term outlook for employment is grim. There are no growth industries on the short/mid term horizon to restart income increases, and having a large unemployed (or temp/part-time workers) pool will drag down the income numbers for some time to come.
At the base, this is the dilemma. We don't need increased lending (except to prevent complete collapse of the housing market through walk-aways and foreclosures), we need growth creating jobs. The banks debts on bad lending are fake wealth now. There is nothing real to support those debts, and the financial institutions that hold them.
Since other nations will see increased unemployment that competes for US jobs, undermining domestic incomes, this is a race to the bottom, and housing is the tail, not the dog.
We can argue all year about saving or not saving the banks from their errors, but that seems immaterial to the basic flaws in the economy which make employment precarious. Why hire people if businesses are imploding? Or that cheaper workers outside the US are available for many US jobs?
Weak banks and cliff-diving housing and souring national debt are symptoms, not causes. Who will hire the workers is the big question. I see no answers except 1930's-type mass employment programs paid by society as a whole through the government - and that is far from a guaranteed outcome.
I wouldn't worry about it. He has no idea who or what Jews are and is just spouting inherited bigotry out of ignorance. Scary thing is that he may be teaching people in the US. He's not a threat, in a larger sense, except that he's in a position of power and has no idea what he's talking about.
Lucifer writes:
why is Jaswant Jain (a mawari) critising Jews. It is a bit like a person who molests 8 year olds complaining about guys having trophy wives. Seriously, ask non-marwari indians what they think of marwaris..
Lucifer | 01.31.09 - 8:59 pm | #
....where are we coming up with the "run on the banks starting next week" stuff?
Any links?
"I think the reason they're doing what they're doing is partly due to a fundamental misunderstanding of the problem. The collapse of the financial system isn't the disease, it's symptom."
It's not a misunderstanding; it's a different problem. The goal for you is saving a failing economy. The goal for them is saving a failing financial system, and they'll save the economy if they need to in order to save the banks.
Apparently I'm not eligible to go into the "move in rate", since I'm a current resident. I'm not sure how they calculate the rates. When I asked last week they didn't have a clue what the renewals were going to go out as.
I'm just guessing the fact that I've seen numerous tenants move out and numerous vacancies that it's a huge signal to them that "our rents are way too high we need to reduce". Another decent raise and it would've been way more beneficial for me to go month-month a year ago.
... and just looking at craigslist it looks like there are a number of houses I can move into where my family would be a bit happier.
$500 in the mail.
TARP
"Stimulus"
Fuggetit.
Let us just skip FICA for a few years. It got Geithner a new job.
Let us just skip FICA for a few years. It got Geithner a new job.
adsfdasf | 01.31.09 - 9:09 pm | #
FICA and SS and then your talking. Won't do much for the $$$ though.
"Also, the current boom was statewide and nationwide."
yes and no. other posters have referenced the slower parts of PA - perfectly fine houses for 50, 60K.
the multiples over incomes seen in LA (still seen in places like santa monica, silverlake, santa barbara) are/were truly exceptional.
greenlander,
Yikes! I will have a talk with my renter. 4 bedrooms on a big lot in a nice part of town - $2500 per month.
I did a look at Craig's List a while ago and that $2500 did not seem too low at the time. It is located just west of Winchester and a bit south of 280.
We put about $75K of deferered maintenance and repairs into it over the last two years. The landlord business is not that great a business.
As a long time born again dopish Calfironian, please everyone bash the hell out of California. This state is a hellhole full the the brim with folks worse than those seen in the Mad Max movies. The whole state is Mad Max squared or even to the 4th power. Avoid at all cost.
Please help make our house prices crash hard in the areas we are interested in buying in. We need another leg down of 100 or even better 200K to put a smile on our faces. Do your part to make us happy.
Actually, that's very unfair to Jas. No tribal/racial hatreds should be carried over to the US or to this website, IMHO.
Seriously, ask non-marwari indians what they think of marwaris..
Lucifer | 01.31.09 - 8:59 pm | #
blackhalo,
Every Savage, Hannity and Ingraham run gold commercials on the radio. It's so annoying! The gold commercials are a bit calming...
--
"Jas, when you have the patience to learn about the world, I'll accept you back into the fold; until then, you must leave. Sorry."
jeff,
Who the F are you? You are a proven coward. You don't fight fair and you don't keep your words. You try to discredit me by the false charge of "anti-Semite." I dont like jeff, but I would never ask you, or anyone, to leave. You threatened to leave and now you don't seem to want to leave. What is your problem now? You don't want to leave until I am leave or am banned? You are behaving like an Intolerant bigot and are engaging in personal attacks. I am simply shooting back after I was shot few times by you. Learn to be a man.
Jas
Hows that CRBot go?
"Jeff and Jas killing threads deader since American had B&B dopes?"
Something like that I think...
.......
Off to watch the fights... Cheers all!
.................
jas et al,
why don't you boys take it outside.
your shit is getting old
why don't you boys take it outside.
-- ditto
I'm ruining things by calling out the house bigot. I won't apologize for it, but I will leave you and leave you with the bigot, if that's what CR community wants.
homedad43 writes:
I'll be curious to see about vacation home rentals in beach communities this summer.
We go with another family each August to DE or MD and next week is typically when we start checking the RE listings.
And as to the "bad bank"?
What a bunch of idiots.
homedad43 | Homepage | 01.31.09 - 7:45 pm | #
homedad43
I sent you some links a while back. The answer to your question is YES!
This will be my third year leasing. Last year I leased 9 months. This year I'll have it for 5 months. Im living large on a middle class budget. Life is good for me. I have lived within my means. I have the place again from April 1st thru August 31st.
Jas--outside is
mailgilbs@gmail.com
--
Lucifer,
Real bigots can't hide their bigotry for too long. I know you want an outlet for your bigotry and I happen to be of a known ethnicity. You are hiding behind your evil mask.
Jas
I'm not THAT much for anecdotes, but they do hold some meaning. Plus, hearing and seeing things on the street reinforces the facts I read here o/l. Here is a clip of from a cell phone conversation I overheard in CVS tonight:
"Mom, if I lose my job... No, I don't think I'm going to get fired any
day... Well, if the firm is losing 100k/month... don't repeat that."
Keep talking...
--
jeff: "Jas--outside is..."
No, thanks. Once more you threaten to leave and you don't. Amazing. Good riddance, I hope.
I apologize to the rest for having to deal with a rogue poster. It is tavern in a rough neighborhood and one has to deal some drunks every now and then. He kept using foul language for too long and had to be dealt with.
Jas
Hey, CR! Can I request this one for the humor section of the blogroll? We need a laugh. Ponyless found it 2 threads ago:
From: Jokes from the financial crisis
Ponyless in NJ
The bottom is in, don't be retarded, BUY!
i sold my beach cottage home in july 05 in 6 days expecting a crash any second. since then i have been VERY happily renting.
i shed possessions, set up a forwarding address at earthclassmail.com and never looked back. renting has been awesome. i rented a 2500 square foot 3 story apartment in asheville for $1500. it had a 400 square foot bathroom with a huge hot tub. later was on the market for $1 million. had another amazing apartment there for $750. then a beautiful 1920's craftsman house for $1000.
now i have an office and apartment downtown portland for $2000 total.
all of these are less than my monthly expenses as a homeowner and i never have to set foot in that infernal home depot ever again.
renting is way preferable to owning.
The bottom is in, don't be retarded, BUY!
Kona's V-Recoveries | Homepage | 01.31.09 - 9:32 pm | #
Why do I get annoyed when people say this? Shouldn't it be uplifting?
Jas Jain,
Have you ever considered the role of you "jati" in the large man-made famines in India (under british rule)? In a just world, there would be no marwaris left! Heck, you guys make the "ferengi" on Star Trek look good..
How thrilled our largest creditor, China, must be that we are creating vast amounts of dollahs to inflate into obscurity our currency while they hold all that dollar denominated debt.
Jas, you simply cannot blatantly lie like this and then call me names: my posts are public, and it's clear I've never made any posts like those you accuse me of. You are taking this to unacceptable levels. I gave you my email. You need to stop this, now..or do you need the last public word?
" had to be dealt with."
Jas
Jas Jain | Homepage | 01.31.09 - 9:30 pm | #
Shouldn't it be uplifting?
No this is counter-intuitive dude and that's why it needs to be said!
as a happily renting former homeowner i can pick up and move at any time. $300 to some movers and i am setting up in a new neighborhood.
it is a lot of fun. i always get the shortest lease i can. when it is up i go month to month.
if i want to move to brazil i can be there in two weeks.
and! i never have to fix anything. no property taxes. no multiple insurance policies.
it is a renter's paradise out there, especially if you are a minimalist.
Why do I get annoyed when people say this? Shouldn't it be uplifting?
RockyR
.
Why beat yourself up for your reaction? Relax. Have a drink. Go look at crisis jokes. We have a long way to go, don't let your blood pressure burst your brain in the 3rd inning.
jas/jeff
why don't you two get married?
Re: "It's a good time to be a renter."
Mike in Long Island writes:
...Does anyone have any thoughts on getting silver maple leafs vs plain jane 1 oz silver rounds or 10oz silver bars?...
Mike in Long Island | 01.31.09 - 8:23 pm | #
Mike, the future is uncharted territory,
but heres my guess
if you are "playing the market" bars with the right stamp are probably ok ie "credit suisse" etc
but if you are acquiring silver or gold as an insurance policy against the non acceptability of paper currency...to "spend"
then
i would think recognizability and acceptability by the counter-party to the trade or purchase you wish to transact is important
that suggests us eagles, canadian maples, etc might be best
Folks,
One of the nice reasons CR (the Blog) is such an informative/entertaining hang-out is because CR (incarnate) lets the audience control the dialogue. On rare occassion, I've seen a gentle reminder about using self-control.
Anyone who's been following CR for more than week should know Jas likes to provoke people.
Seems like most folks have figured out to:
(a) makes clever comeback and move on, or
(b) ignore him,
& especially
(c) avoid starting an all-out food fight
BTW: I'm not picking on Jas--there are plenty of writers I don't agree with, but they can speak their minds unless & until the 'man behind the curtain' pulls their plug.
I hope this site continues to permit free--but CIVIL--exchange of ideas & humor. (Multiple hat tips to CR--thanks for a well-run blog.)
Re: anyone have any thoughts on getting silver m
Yah, don't be retarded!
I think there needs to be Jas' law for threads.
It would be similar to Godwin's law, which Jas has violated innumerable times.
Once some ignorant but well meaning posters engages Jas, the thread is terminated.
Yes, it's annoying to have someone call-out Jas....then again, why haven't you all been doing it??
Jas, I won't email you at your company address that you provide.
Mine, if you have a question, is:
mailgilbs@gmail.com
--
Lucifer,
Yeah, yeah, spill some more hate, you bigot. Bigots engage in personal attacks based on a posters ethnicity. I know you need an outlet for your bigotry towards a group, groups, and right now I am a handy target. Bigots are usually cowards too.
I bet that what you said about Marwaris had you said about Jews you would be banned or attacked by many here, but you would escape because you know your audience.
Jas
Ah, of course. The NYT, who consistently reports falling home prices as "bad news", is now calling falling home prices (of the rental variety) "good news". I sure wish they would make up their minds.
Whoa, I take that back, is the silver going to be used for your teeth? : )
In case some of you are wondering about the reason I stopped beating up on canucks- Now they are starting to realize that they are f**ked! They do not require any assistance to feel miserable.
Fortress Blocks Redemptions as Shareholders Lose 96% Since IPO
Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- One of the things Wesley Edens did soon after his company bought Canadian ski-resort conglomerate Intrawest Corp. in October 2006 was to finance construction of a $43 million gondola at Whistler, British Columbia.
The new lift, completed in December 2008, is the longest unsupported span for any gondola, stretching 2.73 miles (4.4 kilometers). Its also the highest, dangling 1,427 feet (435 meters) over Fitzsimmons Creek between Whistler mountain and its sister peak, Blackcomb. Visitors to the 2010 Winter Olympics, for which Intrawests Whistler Blackcomb resort is a venue, are likely to ride it just for thrills: Two of the 28 cars have glass bottoms.
CR proved to me today that the recovery is underway and that the eye of the storm is passing; he said it with his great charts (even if that wasn't his point).
ok
im outta here for the night
Jas,
Where are you on the V-Recovery? Did you see it in the charts or was it just me?
im outta here for the night
mock turtle | 01.31.09 - 9:49 pm |
Adios
Jeff, I have no idea who you are nor do I ever recall reading a post by you. To my knowledge you've contributed zero to this blog. You are now doing nothing more than creating noise that I daresay none of us are interested in listening to. Jas, you have made contributions and I have enjoyed some of your previous posts. My suggestion to both of you? SHUT THE FUCK UP and either get on topic or move it off the board. Thanks and remember, you don't have to go home, but you cant stay HERE.
Goodnight mock turtle, still chuckling over the TRex comment on the bad bears thread...
Jas Jain,
You cannot compare Jews and Marwaris. Jews have contributed a vast multitude of intellectuals and innovators in non-financial areas over the centuries.
marwaris have the blood of many millions of poor indians on their hands. The marwari contribution to science, literature, philosophy, medicine, art is rather insignificant.
SHUT THE FUCK UP and either get on topic or move it off the board. Thanks and remember, you don't have to go home, but you cant stay HERE.
Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 01.31.09 - 9:52 pm | #
Thank you!
lulz
[ Jas, you have made contributions and I have enjoyed some of your previous posts]
I just threw up in my mouth a little.
puleeeeese, don't feed the trolz !!!
"either get on topic or move it off the board"
Concur. Many thanks.
otishertz,
That works until you have children. They do act as a ball and chain.
I went to many different schools thru high school and I don't remember that as a fun time. Some schools welcome outsiders and some freeze you out.
I did luck out and spent 4 years at the same high school and that was fun times.
--
"Mine, if you have a question, is: mailgilbs@gmail.com"
jeff,
You are shameless because you come back after you say you were done, more than once.
You really are a pest. I don't have any questions for you. Get lost, i.e., don't address anything more to me and I don't want any of your blabber. I will shoot back as long as you keep shooting. You started the brawl and I will take the last shot.
Jas
Mike in Long Island writes:
I know that there are some folks here who have some precious metals. Does anyone have any thoughts on getting silver maple leafs vs plain jane 1 oz silver rounds or 10oz silver bars?
As Mock said, as far as using for currency, maple leafs would be fine, they are .9999 silver. Also, you could get a bag of pre-1964 silver coins (half dollars, quarters) for that purpose too. Not for numismatic value, but just for the 90% silver. I think Silver, Silver Bar, Silver Bars, Silver Bullion, Gold and More - APMEX.com
(they accept credit cards) is fairly reasonable, as well as Miles Franklin.
Microsoft Songsmith Cheerily Documents the Collapse of the World Economy
YouTube - Johannes Kreidler - Charts Music - Songsmith fed with Stock Charts
Microsoft's inherently-ironic Songsmith software is such a goldmine. Here, some jokester has turned those stock market frowns upside-down by setting them to Songsmith's relentlessly upbeat Casiotone beats.
If this doesn't put a smile on your face, you're probably not closing your eyes shut enough.
Microsoft Songsmith Cheerily Documents the Collapse of the World Economy - Microsoft - Gizmodo
Comrade Kristina,
I only posted rarely, but have been an appreciative reader for a year. I didn't and still don't know enough to post about the economy, so I've mostly been silent, and just learned from the posters and especially from CR. I have contributed when I though I had something to offer, but mostly I have been here to learn.
I just got fed up with some stuff in comments that nobody seemed to find a problem with. (During bad times, lots of scapegoating happens...I'm maybe hyper-aware of this, but I see it.)
Apologies.
As an example, look at data: ^DJI: Historical Prices for Dow Jones Industrial Average - Yahoo! Finance
People were afraid of blood in the street for a year, between April 1974 and May 1975, then bingo, the retards with heads fully in the dirt, missed the chance to buy houses and stocks cheap during that year -- while the pros bought cheap.
Same mistake is being made today, while people are talking about The Train Wreck and The Next Depression and Deflation and Bad Banks.
The bottom is in!
sigh. This site has become Mish's site.
A bit too late..
Win 7 Tip: The Calculator Now Calculates Your Mortgage Payments and More
Win 7 Tip: The Calculator Now Calculates Your Mortgage Payments and More - Windows 7 calculator - Gizmodo
Bah, I give up, carry on...I'm going to hustle some pool, maybe a sucker will pop up and want to contribute to my mortgage payment fund...
why don't you boys take it outside.
-- ditto
Ditto, go away
Comrade Kristina,
you have a mortgage? who is the sucker..
Silver's the new black?
OT, but hey, it's late Saturday, and apparently I missed more unamusing fighting.
The hub and I just saw Milk. Really, excellent. Sean Penn did an absolutely fabulous job. Are gay mannerisms genetic or something? He moved and clapped his hands when happy, exactly like a gay client I had.
Truly, an academy award performance.
BWAHAHAHA... A big pension plan in the province of Quebec, Canada is in trouble..
How Caisse's bet on quants went wrong
KONRAD YAKABUSKI
From Saturday's Globe and Mail
January 30, 2009 at 8:55 PM EST
For four hours and eight minutes, amid the plush decor and sprawling New France tableau of the Quebec legislature's ornate Salon Rouge, Henri-Paul Rousseau gave much better than he got.
It was late 2007, and Mr. Rousseau, the man entrusted to manage Quebeckers' pension savings, had been called before an all-party parliamentary committee to explain why he had risked $13.2-billion of the provincial nest egg on a financial instrument so opaque and complex that only a coterie of elite mathematicians understood it. A financial instrument, what's more, that had turned out to be a bad investment.
This page is available to GlobePlus subscribers
--
Only dopes get themselves involved in a barroom brawl. It ends lot sooner if no one else gets involved but it is too much to ask of born-and-bred dopes. This guy jeff was attacking me for no reasons whatsoever and some bigots who hate me decided it was time to hit Jas as someone else started to hit.
Discrediting someone by labels like anti-Semite is a disgusting habit among born-and-bred American dopes. Others rarely use it to the best of my knowledge.
Jas
....I wish Gran Torino was as good. It was pathetic. Acting was bad & the script was terrible. Clint needs to stick to one job per movie now. Director/Producer/Leading Male is too much nowadays.
Tehachapi
nades | 01.31.09 - 8:17 pm | #
When I lived on Bakersfield, friends described Tehachapi as having five seasons: winter, spring, summer, fall, and winter. They thought highly for Tehachipi.
Inflation dopes would keep singing the same song of "Printing Money" and default possibilities by the US govt. Keep dreaming.
Jas Jain | Homepage | 01.31.09 - 8:06 pm | #
It just seems that there is a lot of history of regimes getting in over their heads, then printing frantically until they inflate the debt (and everything else) away. Why would that not applie to the born and bred crooks running the US?
Really? Clint got good reviews. I was thinking of seeing it.
Next week, we think we'll see the Frost/Nixen thing.
Movie theater was reasonably full.
Does anyone have any thoughts on getting silver maple leafs vs plain jane 1 oz silver rounds or 10oz silver bars?
Mike in Long Island | 01.31.09 - 8:23 pm | #
Unless they have been held in a Comex depository, you might need assay testing when selling bullion bars and when you sell bars you have to identify them by serial number.
lawyerliz(Unrated) writes:
\tOT, but hey, it's late Saturday, and apparently I missed more unamusing fighting.
The hub and I just saw Milk. Really, excellent. Sean Penn did an absolutely fabulous job. Are gay mannerisms genetic or something? He moved and clapped his hands when happy, exactly like a gay client I had.
Truly, an academy award performance.
\t lawyerliz | \t \t \t \t01.31.09 - 10:03 pm | #Actually, Liz, our mannerisms are not genetic. We have an annual conference where we decide how to flap our hands and when to do it.It's sort of how us jews also coordinate our behaviours and mannerisms.Are you sure you saw the movie? Your comment is incredibly ignorant.
The hub and I just saw Milk. Really, excellent. Sean Penn did an absolutely fabulous job. Are gay mannerisms genetic or something? He moved and clapped his hands when happy, exactly like a gay client I had.
Truly, an academy award performance.
lawyerliz
.
Combination of culture and hormones, rather than DNA, I suspect, since the children of gays aren't necessarily gay.
fwiw, my monthly in LA just went up $60 month due to the "rising cost of utilities" which are included in the rent.
Are gay mannerisms genetic or something?
lawyerliz | 01.31.09 - 10:03 pm | #
Or something. I'm surprised at you, you know the proportion of gays in America means that you know several, but may not be aware. There's a reason you might not be aware,...they're well within the range of "normal".
you have a mortgage? who is the sucker..
lucifer | 01.31.09 - 10:02 p
Apparently my dead Mother, I inherited it.
Thanks all for the comments on silver.
Liz -- I'm going to paraphrase your comment, just in case you don't understand how ignorant and offensive you are:
"Are negro mannerisms genetic or something? He moved and clapped his hands when happy, exactly like a negro client I had."
IN this painful economic climate of layoffs and shrinking investments, there is a sliver of positive news: its a good time to be a renter in New York City.
CR has the recipe for dishing up the best 5 star, 5 course presentation of the daily bear market repast, but giving page-time to comments like the above, to mix metaphors, is putting lipstick on the bear.
It is only a good time to be a renter in NYC relative to the most exhorbitant world rental conditions evidenced in the last 75 years, and barring some world-wide currency collapse and concomitant inflationary panic and flight-to-asset run, it is just the beginning of ongoing, ever-better Big Apple rental conditions, enroute to a deflationary credit and price collapse.
In the upcoming financial big game, I hope honest field umpires in all positions seeing the above infraction feel free to throw the lipsticking-the-bear penalty flag.
Oh, heavenly dayz, anybody who has read my previous comments would know that my attitude is vive la difference. Is there something bad about clapping your hands a certain way? I didn't think so.
I once knew a black guy who wouldn't eat any watermelon because this was supposed to be stereotypically black behavior. Even if it were, is there something wrong with that?
My daughter had a peculiar way, when she was a baby of sucking her 2 middle fingers and putting her other hand over her ear. Never saw any other baby before or since do that except my son, who tried it a few times as a baby, and then settled on the thumb.
It's just something I wonder about in general.
Are gay mannerisms genetic or something?
I thought CR deleted the word gay when posted?
--
Lucifer,
Ah, the bigot finally giving justifications for his bigotry based on "facts!" Who needs anti-Semites!! Germans were highly accomplished and great contributors too!!!
Ignorance, intolerance and bigotry, that shows up commonly, is quite amazing, but something to be expected among dopes. Dopes, per se, are not bad people but they can be very dangerous when led by a propagandist. American Hitler is sure to exploit it.
Jas
People, listen up. I really, really don't like the the thin skinned behavior being exhibited. We are faced with the worst disaster this country has ever faced, now is NOT the time for it. I'm beginning to understand why mp, Conjure, crispyand cole, Hoopajoops and CSC left. They knew this was coming and didn't want to be a part of it...Let's pull it together folks, we're the ones that had the advanced warning. If we can't hold it together what chance does society at large have? Think about it, it's all our futures at stake.
I'm going out with my husband for the evening and I'm going to try and not allow the crisis to ruin that. We don't have much money but I we can hustle a few games and enjoy ourselves. There's not much time left for that I fear...
bobn writes:
It just seems that there is a lot of history of regimes getting in over their heads, then printing frantically until they inflate the debt (and everything else) away. Why would that not applie to the born and bred crooks running the US?
bobn
Yep. Some very recent history, at that.
I remember reading Zimbabwe finally gave up when some genius realized how preposterous printing $100 trillion Zimbabwean notes is....
....I second what Kristina said.
....I second what Kristina said.
Black Star Ranch
.
3rd
BAck again and OT:
What happened with Nemo this AM?
There are italicized pastes of his goodbye this AM @ 10:11 but nothing when I go back to that thread.
Any light?
And judging by C Kristina's/Lliz's remarks, it probably hasn't gotten better.
Otishrtz. ty for the ECM tip.
I want one of those Zimbabwean notes. It'd be fun to have on the office wall.
Comrade K
May the Mortgage Pig and the Spirit of Conjure be with you as you clear the table and clean the suckers' pockets.
Tolerance, calm, and good cheer to all.
LawyerLiz and Comrade Kristina,
If someone had made an offensive racist or religious or sexist comment, I'm sure that you would expect that person to be called out or banned. If you think I'm thin-skinned about homophobic comments, you can shove your idiotic attitudes up your ignorant straight cunts.
Does that help you understand the word "offensive" a little better?
Anonymous writes:
I thought CR deleted the word gay when posted?
Anonymous
Would that apply to a group sing-along of "Deck the Halls?"
We need to get the rules clarified before next Christmas....
lawyerliz, I'm well aware you meant no offense with your remarks. It feels as though people are looking to be offended. Work has been a nightmare this entire week. Business actually picked up but the customers that are coming in are way past obnoxious. Arguing, picking fights, getting too inebriated (and on more than what I'm serving them). I had to throw three out today. It's escalating quickly and this is just a small town. I'm really picking up ugly, hateful vibes and it's beginning to really frighten me. I can handle myself but I truly fear for society as a whole as I've never done in my 42 years.
why would the G word be outlawed?
doesn't it mean "full of frivolity"?
mattdog writes:
I want one of those Zimbabwean notes. It'd be fun to have on the office wall.
mattdog
Maybe check ebay or a local coin shop....
just caught up a bit on the last of this thread.
concur with the others.
Let's all go out and have a beer. I know I'm ready for one! Jas!?
MR, if that was meant to offend me, you failed. I don't take offense easily, I'm a bartender. I've heard and seen it all, some of it I invented.
.....well, instead for the non-drinkers, you can have some REAL fun and attend a Town Hall Meeting. One last year we banned all languages except English Only.
I am a lurker, not a poster.
"mp, Conjure, crispyand cole, Hoopajoops and CSC left."
where did they go?
--
"It just seems that there is a lot of history of regimes getting in over their heads, then printing frantically until they inflate the debt (and everything else) away. Why would that not applie to the born and bred crooks running the US?"
bobn,
Because Crooks running the US are NOT dopes, or simpletons! A solution that is obvious to all the dopes ain't gonna fly, or happen.
High inflation, say 10-20% for more than a year, would kill the US financial system in less time than working thru deflation and depression as Japan did. Deflation is already here and is here to stay for a while.
Jas
OK, everyone--group cyberhug....
I can't at the moment think of any pecularly black mannerisms at the moment, but if I did, I wouldn't find them offensive. And why should I expect that a black person be ashamed of such a mannerism, unless there were something wrong with being black?
We will truly be a free and diverse society when we can glory in this stuff, instead of getting all defensive. If moving or clapping in a certain way identifies you as gay, so what, unless there is something wrong with being gay? I don't think so.
I liked the movie; I like Penn's performance, and I admired Milk if he was truly like the performance.
I think that the Italian attitude toward the nasty word meaning Italian it the best. Being Italian is wonderful. (Renaissance, excellent food, good design still; descent of Romans, etc, etc.) ANYTHING that means you are Italian is also wonderful, including the "w" word.
LOL Samdog...OK but watch your hands...
MR:
or whoever you are.
people make remarks without meaning offense. And if you want to point that out, fine.
the last remark is despicable.
If that's what you have to offer, sign off.
"where did they go?"
spend more time readying for Financial Armageddon (as I understood it).
There are ways of making your point that don't involve pouring gasoline on the fire. It was that talent that I respected most in Tanta. For the sake of the board, I hope that you would consider that option.
LawyerLiz-
We know you and we know you didn't mean what you're being accused of
Things just kinda seem to be devolving tonight. People just seem to be looking for fights.
Kristina....the Mrs felt the same the last two shifts
LawyerLiz,
Here is another one, substituting your "gays" with "women" "Do all women act in such an flightly manner? I once had a woman client who acted in the same flighty way."
Do you think a comment liked that deserves to be called out?
BSR, my understanding as well for the most part. Who knows, Conjure maybe devising a plan to save the World. I know a couple days before he posted his farewell he mentioned Conjure was working on possibly putting out another publication. Hopefully, he will...
henry kissinger writes:
I am a lurker, not a poster.
"mp, Conjure, crispyand cole, Hoopajoops and CSC left."
where did they go?
henry kissinger
____
CR is kinda like the old "Hotel California"--you can never leave (really) ...
MR(Unrated) writes:
LawyerLiz and Comrade Kristina,
If someone had made an offensive racist or religious or sexist comment, I'm sure that you would expect that person to be called out or banned. If you think I'm thin-skinned about homophobic comments, you can shove your idiotic attitudes up your ignorant straight cunts.
You're a complete fucking idiot, and a stupid troll.
Don't even respond to this guy, lawyerliz. He's just trying to say whatever he can to get you riled up. This is the internet.
Clearly someone who willingly watches Milk has a problem with homosexuals. Perhaps liz was making a comment regarding the stereotypes in Hollywood. I guess cowboy's just hide it better.
MR, you made your point relax...
I'm sure they are all still lurking out there. I miss them all already.
We are faced with the worst disaster this country has ever faced, now is NOT the time for it.
Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 01.31.09 - 10:20 pm | #
We don't have much money but I we can hustle a few games and enjoy ourselves. There's not much time left for that I fear...
Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 01.31.09 - 10:20 pm | #
With all due respect, Kristina. I'm a Kristina fan, but we aren't quite to WWII or Civil War level of crises here. We have 500,000 US casualties, millions of global deaths, two smoldering Japanese cities, famine, destruction of Europe, Pearl Harbor, a nation divided, families killing each other, peace gardens, dust bowls, and root cellars to go before we reach the worst crisis the US has ever faced. Maybe we'll get there, but the die have not been cast for such a fate as of yet.
Things just kinda seem to be devolving tonight. People just seem to be looking for fights.
theotherdeb
.
Concur. The party was way better last night, when we were throwing thread music clips at each other.
yeah, well, I think they'll be back. It's a tough habit to break, AND, not very bad for your health.
where's comrade scared shitless been, love that guy
homedad43 --
you are correct, my last comment was meant to be despicable. As despicable as the stereotyping comment that LawyerLiz made.
I'm confident that LawyerLiz meant no offense. That illustrates the level of ignorance.
I had a co-worker describe a successful contract negotiaion and "jewing the vendor down". I called him out on that one as well. I take LawyerLiz's level of ignorance in the same way as my co-worker.
BSR, I suppose that depends on how much fun you have at the BFF pizza parties...I don't get too enjoy them as much as I'd like as I have to be up at 6am Saturday for work...
....well, you need to be an old senile white guy then. 6am is the middle of the day for us.
I am somewhat flighty occasionally. And I like shoes. My hub once called my shoes the Imelda Marcos memorial shoe pile. (Along with being flighty, I am not neat.) Since I like being a girl, I don't mind being occasionally thought of as flighty. Not at a closing; not at court.
And yeah, I think that fear is permeating everything, and causing extreme grouchiness.
I'm sorry I pushed your buttons MR.
And I'm sorrier that Milk got killed, not even for being gay, but for a trivial political spat with a somewhat nutso guy, who was apparently under unbearable pressure of some kind. He
coulda been the first gay president!!
LOL.....have a great night sweetie....I'm going to bug Mrs BSR...
For what it's worth:
The typical Saturday night thread (Friday as well) tends to be a lot rowdier.
The other week was a verbal drunken debauch. And if you'd asked me three years if I'd ever been to a blog debauch, I'd have wondered what you were talking about.
But I do wonder two things:
Hm....
Haha BSR, my elderly uncle lives with us, he's a 77 year old first generation Italian/American. Loud, deaf, and an early riser. Even on my days off I don't get to sleep past 7 UGH...
I'm confident that LawyerLiz meant no offense. That illustrates the level of ignorance.
You're a bigot.
So, when does the reverse Dust Bowl migration get underway?
homedad, as a bartender I can say with some certainty, the drinking is showing here...Check my own typing for reference...LOL Seriously though, I think it's a mixture or "all of the above"...
Actually, Bunker Dweller, some of my best friends are ignorant straight women. How could you accuse me of being bigoted?
Smile.
Tomorrow will be worse.
Boogus, I think it already has. I've heard Midwesterners on other blogs complaining about the California transplants in their community on an ever increasing basis..
How do you know K and I are straight?
You have time for other blogs, Kristina?
How is your financing coming along?
Haha lawyerliz, good question, I guess we've mentioned our husbands so in his mind we must be straight.
Here is another one, substituting your "gays" with "women" "Do all women act in such an flightly manner? I once had a woman client who acted in the same flighty way."
Do you think a comment liked that deserves to be called out?
MR
.
Your logic is flawed. There is a "feminine" gesture language and a "masculine" gesture language, hence the widely-understood expressions "butch" and "femme." There are "femme" lesbians, and "butch" lesbians, for example. There are "femme" and "butch" gay men. These phrases are widely used inside the collection of subcultures that might be called the global gay community.
The above also implies that there is no particular gesture language use that can be characterized as "normal," if "normal" is code for "straight."
The simple observation that such a gesture language exists is just that, an observation, not an attack.
Right, no gay women are married to men, right?
I think it already has. I've heard Midwesterners on other blogs complaining about the California transplants in their community on an ever increasing basis..
Comrade Kristina
That is why I moved out of Denver. I really miss the way it was but Like WLA people ruined it for me. There are some here already but seem to be decent people so far.
I just wanted to give a movie tip.
Go see Milk.
MR writes:
Actually, Bunker Dweller, some of my best friends are ignorant straight women. How could you accuse me of being bigoted?
You're a bigot and a lousy troll. You don't believe a word of what you say. You're just saying whatever it takes to rouse people up.
liz, I just got my last tax papers in today so I can do my taxes and use the past two years returns to give the loan officer. I have everything else they need together. I have my fingers crossed but hubby still hasn't found work so I'm getting scared. My income alone is going to be a crapshoot...
Night all.
"It's a good time to be a renter."
It is a good time to be a bando, too.
Yeah, day by day everyone seems to be getting more frayed as the economy "deleverages" uncontrollably. Protect your assets as best you can.
We're all witness to the end of a huge, global debt bubble. I have to agree with Jas on this: there's still a whole lot of deflation yet to come ... after that, who really knows?
G'night folks
"I have to agree with Jas on this:"
Who is Jas? Thanks, Ken.
jas et al,
why don't you boys take it outside.
your shit is getting old
otishertz | 01.31.09 - 9:18 pm | #
Good, a voice of sanity.
--
Why am I not concerned about inflation and my UST holdings?
Because every day I get warned, and questioned about my wisdom of holding on, by born-and-bred American dopes! "Printing Money" inflation dopes (PMID) are the most vocal and the most ignorant of dopes. They have been victimized by a myth. The USG borrows in the open market and does not print money. If it did the whole world financial system will collapse and not just have the crisis that we have now.
It is true that I lost some of my gains in the USTs this month, and there were many price declines over the past 27.5 years, I have a fantastic record for 15+ years in USTs and my correct long-term view. Usually, Americans respect a great record like that, but it doesn't seem to apply in this case. I have been getting advice from B&B to get out of my USTs for several years now. Maybe I have been lucky, or maybe I know something that most dont. Markets will force the USG to behave! Remember what Bill Clinton said, after being schooled by Robert Rubin, the bond market is lot more powerful than the US President!
Jas
Haha homedad, but have you ever been called a "mud-duck"...that was a new one even for me...
My daughter had a peculiar way, when she was a baby of sucking her 2 middle fingers and putting her other hand over her ear. Never saw any other baby before or since do that except my son, who tried it a few times as a baby, and then settled on the thumb.
Weird. My step-son did the exact same thing.
Night all, I'll check in much later when I'm much drunker...We're off to play pool. Liz, smooches
"Weird. My step-son did the exact same thing.
PSgirl "
So do Ben Bernanke, Hank Satanson, and GWB, now.
It feels as though people are looking to be offended. Work has been a nightmare this entire week. Business actually picked up but the customers that are coming in are way past obnoxious. Arguing, picking fights, getting too inebriated (and on more than what I'm serving them).
Sounds like CR's bar.
I'm out. People here are nuts tonight.
Kristina:
If by mud-duck, you refer to #4, then chalk it up to people just being pissed when they don't get their way.
Emotions take over and their most prevalent biases take over. That particular comment was from a woman who had a black co-worker get a sizable insurance settlement whereas hers wasn't near that size.
Trust me, some cases you just remember. Names go away, but the case facts and the situations stay...