I wonder if the report has considered that many resets will be based on a favorable benchmark that will lower payments. Of course I don't know the breakdown, but someone here will no doubt provide the translation. I wonder if it will make a difference.
Over seven percent would indicate nearly 8,000,000 homeless within a year. Serf Alan has it right, they'll camp out near their single source of supply.
I don't think the number will get that high. Our economy won't be able to handle it. I think there would be some sort of massive government sponsored bailout before we hit 7%.
After watching this unfold for 18 months.. I find myself kind of numb and unsure how to proceed. What are the people doing who see this getting worse doing (investment strategy wise)? I myself am underweight financials, holding mostly cash.. and short term bonds.. what else?
Over seven percent would indicate nearly 8,000,000 homeless within a year.
Just because you can't afford your mortgage payment once it fully amortizes doesn't mean you can't afford to rent somewhere else.
These homes were never affordable for most of the people getting into these loans. Once they recast, they can't afford them. Throw in the fact that they are all underwater and these people will just go rent somewhere, instead of living in tents or being "bandos".
12th: Right! So the foreclosures will suck up the excess property currently on the market and pay rent. This won't do much for the excess property situation though. Good point.
Some of "all those people" are going to be shacking up with Mom and Dad, Aunt Martha, or Grandma and Grandpa.
We forget that the American population has atomized itself over the past few decades. Even now, people are returning to their places of origin. We comment on the Mexicans doing it, but not on Americans doing it.
You'll see a mild population shift as many people retreat from the housing-collapse-blighted locales back to the states that have better social services and a couch to crash on.
I don't think the number will get that high. Our economy won't be able to handle it. I think there would be some sort of massive government sponsored bailout before we hit 7%.
charlie | 12.02.08 - 10:06 am |
insert rant about being financially responsible while others get bailed out of their cluelessness here
I understand it has to happen for reasons of social/political stability, but that doesn't mean I have to like it.
And Ditto Elmer Gantry's comment: we're 100% cash at the moment and would like to get into something else...but what?
charlie writes:
I don't think the number will get that high. Our economy won't be able to handle it. I think there would be some sort of massive government sponsored bailout before we hit 7%.
Nothing personal but this i the attitude we need to jettison. Foreclosure is the cure not the problem to be fixed by changing the rules. The consequences of interfering are far worse than using a system that's worked for generations and longer. If you put uncertainty as to the consequences of default into the lending environment the only responses will be to raise rates and lend less.
And Ditto Elmer Gantry's comment: we're 100% cash at the moment and would like to get into something else...but what?
Mostly Lurker | 12.02.08 - 10:10 am | #
~~well, depending on your risk appetite, inverse dow/s and p, inverse dollar, glod are my long term bets. plus a pile of cash waiting for the dow/housing bottom (or popped into the latter two above if/when things blow first).
So let me get this right- Prime loans will have higher default rates than old subprime loans. How are banks gonna securitize prime loans again? Wait, the banks are already insolvent.
Lie Detectors my friends, Lie Detectors. The ONLY way to stop the insanity is to get all of the players together and hook 'em up to the Lie Detector and begin the questioning. I mean , on the topic of mortgages ALONE the results would be utterly riotous as brokers and financiers and others tried to wiggle their way around the "dark" lies of valuation fraud, application fraud, etc., and the little "white" lies of 'dropping rates are a good sign' and 'now's the time to buy' and 'I have a great FHA loan deal just for you'.
We are getting to many pep talks, if things were ok/getting better then why the need to shove some talking head on us every day saying, "It's fine, nothing to see here, we're doing a great job."
I'm still waiting for TPTB to acknowledge we built too much housing and especially too much fancy housing and discuss how this problem will be solved. "Saving" the market is not possible because if all these houses are valued based on costs there are too many.
I fail to see why this is impossible to solve. Hard, yes, impossible: no.
Spend less than we're giving to Citi and Goldman, Welfare, and just buy all the effing mortgages. For everybody who's DTI is piss poor, offer a choice. Keep paying your mortgage, or right now go for a bailout. We'll cram down all these balances for a price--lost appreciation plus a recourse payback scheme just like in bankruptcy. Now, buying the mortgages recapitalizes the derelict banks, too, so we'll extract a price from them, too: Nationalize the f@ckers. Throw out the top five layers of management. Then resell to the private sector.
Or something like that. Just get it the hell over with.
"i'm liking this, we should get all Jack Bauer on them."
Jack Bauer lie detector:
1. Secure subject in chair.
2. Obtain table lamp.
3. Yank power cord from lamp.
4. Strip ends of power cord.
5. Plug power cord into outlet.
6. Apply stripped ends to subject as needed until desired result obtained.
Charlie,
What our govt can't handle is servicing more debt. Much if not most of this paper is held overseas. If we bail out one homeowner, we'll bail out them all. If the govt tries to orchestrate a bailout, they'll do it with all the skill of the last bailout; all the efficiency and transparency of Boston's Big Dig and the decisiveness of the Iraq War...with the exception that they've never done this before.
If the government would move aside, I assume more houses would be foreclosed on, banks would have more REO, foreclosure sales would push prices down further toward levels more people can afford, while they scream and holler folks that bought with 0 down and 3% down are losing very little, they can then rent from folks that bought the now affordable houses (most should have been renting all along anyway), people that bought homes as homes and not investments will lose nothing because they have no intention to sell anyway. What is being done now will just slowly drag out the pain.
In cash and physical gold and silver here. I can't get over how the American economy is a shell game now. The public overleveraged on housing (and everything) and went bust. So the gov't, using its power to tax the bankrupt people, buys the same people's assets. The Fed has become the bookee. This is no way to run a country. What is everyone going to do when tax receipts are next to nil?
A former public defender recounts his first experience with a lie detector test and argues for their place in American courtrooms.
I vividly remember my first lie detector test. It wasn't I who was being tested but rather a client charged with rape. I was relatively new to the criminal defense business, having recently been hired by the State of Vermont as Public Defender of the Northeast Kingdom (as the three Northeastern most Vermont counties were called). Before the test began, the test operator took me aside to explain how it works.
"It's real simple," he said. "First I explain the basic theory of the test to the subject: that lying causes anxiety that shows up on my graphs. Then I explain that the test is called a polygraph because I graphically track three of their unconscious physiological responses at the same time. Then I explain that they can't get away with lying to me since only someone trained as a yogi can simultaneously control all three physiological responses (breath, heart rate and galvanic skin response). Then I wire them up to these graphs and tell them to pick a number between one and ten. I tell them to answer no each time I guess a number, even if I guess the right number. When they answer no to the right number, it always causes a spike in the graphs. I stop the procedure at that point, tell them they lied and show them the graphs. Now that they're convinced that my graphs can read their mind, their responses go haywire when they lie in the course of my actual questioning. The fact is, very few of the people I test bother to lie after this introduction. I get more confessions than the police ever could by a mere interrogation."
nods I'm wavering on gold, hoping it goes down a bit first. we're pretty risk averse folks--making money comes in a distant second to making sure we don't wind up worse off than where we started. If we can preserve capital and be positioned to move quickly quickly to avert any inflation, that's good enough for us until the future becomes a tad clearer. The pantry is well stocked, and we break ground on the veggie garden come spring.
Personally know of six people in foreclosure. Two of em moved out voluntarily, the other four are staying put and no one seems to be in a hurry to boot em out. There really needs to be more social stigma attached to this process. I'm dreamin, but would love to see an investigation of the mortgage broker and real estate agent on every foreclosure. One of the mind blowing things about this whole financial meltdown, is that NOBODY seems to be going to jail.
"Then I wire them up to these graphs and tell them to pick a number between one and ten. I tell them to answer no each time I guess a number, even if I guess the right number. When they answer no to the right number, it always causes a spike in the graphs."
Cool, but what happens if the subject just doesn't pick a single number? What if they pick two or three? Doesn't that screw up the tester's results?
It would work if the subject was forced to actually write a number down on a slip of paper.
OT, we should get the Comscore report on Cyber Monday today if they keep the same schedule as last year, though unsure of time of day...
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 12.02.08 - 10:28 am | #
Cyber Monday? Pshaw. Some PR flack's bullshit story.
Over seven percent would indicate nearly 8,000,000 homeless within a year.
and Just because you can't afford your mortgage payment once it fully amortizes doesn't mean you can't afford to rent somewhere else.
Good point. And the point about people moving in with relatives. Also remember that mortgage delinquencies today may not show up in actual forclosures for a really long time in some states. So the effects might take a while to be seen.
According to Mullaly at the last hearing, he doesn't need the money. He was just their because if GM or Chrysler went bust, suppliers would go bust, and then Ford might go bust. Now you just have to believe it...
Useful data point for tracking online holiday sales as it had been collected for several years...should be as dismal as the rest of the online sales story this year (overall down 4% as of last week).
On lie detectors:
Some years ago two detectives told a dimwitted suspect they were connecting him to a lie detector. Put a colander on his head. Sat him next to a copy machine with a pre-set original on the glass. Every time he answered a question they pushed the start button and out popped "He's Lying". Guy confesses. (The judge was not amused, however. He dismissed the charges.)
"I'm dreamin, but would love to see an investigation of the mortgage broker and real estate agent on every foreclosure. One of the mind blowing things about this whole financial meltdown, is that NOBODY seems to be going to jail."
So right--and it's the only reason I'm not totally sure about just letting homeowners take their medicine and get tossed out on the street. If we're letting the scam artists who knew better get off scot free, how do we justify punishing the (admittedly stupid) people who got bilked? Comes off looking a lot more like corporate oligarchy than justice--and that's the kind of stuff that eventually sparks mass rioting in the streets.
I have 2 relatives who work processing foreclosures. The 90 moratorium on foreclosures means they aren't doing any work right now. But there is a big pile stacking up for the day the moratorium ends.
With what's going on in Treasuries it would not be a total surprise to see movement toward equities and "potential"
higher returns. Ill-advised at this point. Cash!
The Wall Street Bailout is quickly reaching into the trillions-of-dollars, and many analysts are speculating as to the current running total of the outlays thus far, while other financial experts like John Bogle, the founder of the Vanguard Group, are questioning the legitimacy and impact of the costs to maintain this overly-complicated system even when economic conditions are good.
"That means we lose to the market by, you know, over a half a trillion dollars, year after year after year. And investors have to know about that, because it speaks to a real flaw in our system, where the financial system is consuming an excessive share of the economys resources it turns out the financial sector subtracts value from society."
One of the mind blowing things about this whole financial meltdown, is that NOBODY seems to be going to jail.
Hangtown | 12.02.08 - 10:38 am |
SEC/DOJ investigations take a long time. Executives are now too savvy to send smoking gun emails. Prosecutors have to triangulate testimony from various parties to even get a plea. I'd figure we'll have to wait about 2 years from the meltdown. The SEC is also understaffed due to hiring freezes...budget cuts.
governors opposed to what they call a "bailout mentality"
Didn't you see CA Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi doing the bailout shuffle? The "threat" is that CA runs out of cash by February. That presupposes no COP/RAN failures. This morning some of those are 6%+ and double tax free.
"That means we lose to the market by, you know, over a half a trillion dollars, year after year after year. And investors have to know about that, because it speaks to a real flaw in our system, where the financial system is consuming an excessive share of the economys resources it turns out the financial sector subtracts value from society."
Direct link to Bogle interview audio (money shot at 4:22 out of 5:28) NPR Media Player
Rabid open policy of kicking the can (even by the smallest of increments) down the road. I wag my head to see the sophisticated means our gov't uses to pull the oldest and shoddiest manoevres of deadbeats. Foreclosure moratoriums; moving tokens of arbitrary value from one pocket to the other; rushing about assuring creditors of creditworthiness but paying only the absolute minimum to keep up the ruse. Manipulating markets seeking to self-correct and clouding any clear view of true state of affairs.
Having gone down this path, the short term future will be volatile and careening.
Breaking the oldest timeworn ethics: Thou shalt not bear false witness, thou shalt not steal, thou shalt not covet, thou shalt not have any other gods before ME.
Loose the orgy of the golden calf.
Swedish government 'rules out takeover of Volvo Cars'
STOCKHOLM (AFP) The Swedish government has ruled out a takeover of the country's beleaguered automaker Volvo Cars if its owner, US group Ford, decides to sell it, daily Dagens Nyheter reported on Tuesday.
"It's not in our industrial policy to own carmakers and we will not jeopardise taxpayers' money," Enterprise and Energy Minister Maud Olofsson told Sweden's newspaper of reference on the sidelines of a meeting in Brussels.
I don't think the number will get that high. Our economy won't be able to handle it. I think there would be some sort of massive government sponsored bailout before we hit 7%.
charlie | 12.02.08 - 10:06 am |
This assumes that the power of the government is limitless and that they can bail anything and everything out without ultimately collapsing under the weight of bad debt.
A more historical perspective suggests that maybe the government will ultimately lose the power to borrow from abroad and then it's own citizens if it continues to borrow money to spend in ineffective ways.
I think this would be a prime time to issue 100 year debt. It's certain that the government will have at least some debt for the next hundred years, so why not fund as much as possible at rock-bottom interest rates? If I could take out a 100 year mortgage on my house at a 2% interest rate I probably would. I'm willing to gamble that I can make more than the 1.5% real cost of the money after itemized deductions most years.
The British government used to issue perpetual debt. It turned out to be a great deal for the government (not such a great deal for the lenders). In the long term, with inflation, the debt became next to worthless. In effect, voluntary taxation.
ahh, the 100 yr mortgage. japan did that in their deflationary crisis in '90. yeehaw!
"New 100-year mortgage explained. [Loan officer Toro WATANABE - (thru translator) says we require borrowers to furnish certification of their children.] [Economist professor Takahiro MIYAO - says children will inherit both the assets and debts of parents.]"
"If I could take out a 100 year mortgage on my house at a 2% interest rate I probably would. I'm willing to gamble that I can make more than the 1.5% real cost of the money after itemized deductions most years."
This would just cause another housing bubble. I don't think we want that.
Yesterday afternoon some guy comes to my door and tapes a notice on it, then takes a picture and walks away. I watched this from a window and then went out to see what it was. It was a notice of Trustee Sale for the house - but he got the address wrong and it was for my next door neighbor. Now, the guy next door refinanced several times during the boom to finance their retirement set up back in the Philippines. He tried to sell back in 2006 but the market was already softening and he refused to drop his price because he expected to be able to pull an additional $60k out of the house. He also refused to make repairs and fix the place up to help get it sold.
When it failed to sell, he rented it out and went back to the Philippines. The renters have been sending him checks every month. Back in 2006 I told my other half that my bet was on him walking away and sure enough, he did. I have no idea at what point he stopped paying on the note, but given the state of the industry it is likely to have been a year at this point. So, now the house will be sold in 20 days and the renters have no idea - at least until today when the servicer is due to come back and tag the right house.
We expect to hear screaming at some point today....
Didn't you see CA Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi doing the bailout shuffle?
Oh, what a slippery slope a state bailout would be. As we speak, California is hedging its debate in the hopes of a bailout miracle. These guys would rather give Paulson and Bernanke fellatio than cut spending by 10% and face the wrath of special interests.
"I personally believe that nothing could lift the American people's spirits more than having an economic recovery plan...passed into action on the first day of a new administration," he["I personally believe that nothing could lift the American people's spirits more than having an economic recovery plan...passed into action on the first day of a new administration," he [Randell] said.
In a non-finance forum I've been trying to tell people that buying stocks is a bum idea and even that the current form of the 401(k) isn't a great deal like they think. The reasons I give are the following:
a) If a bunch of retired folks start cashing in their 401(k) they drive prices down.
b) We are in a period of deflation (credit bubble collapse)
c) Companies are no-longer transparent.
Most people over there think that I am crazy and this is the buying opportunity of a lifetime. Furthermore they are convinced buy-hold is the way to go. They also believe that no one can time the market. I gave the example that once the market topped off at 14k, and passed through 12k they should sell, and then if they wait for the market to go back up if they buy at even 11k they will have saved money. Even after giving such clear example they all told me "It's impossible to time the market, I prefer to buy and hold, now bugger off you don't know what you are talking about."
They all don't think that we are like Japan at all...
Who was it who said that one must dance while the music plays even when it is "ring around the rosies" and collapse is when the music stops? That potemkin village virus has moved up the ladder from some single cell to complete globe. Terrible minstrel show playactors pretending what they are not; hoaxes and charlatans, grifters and hobos aping gentlemen. Violence upon our economic institutions shall mutate to a violence in the commonplace. It, an infection which will pass over all walls and defies containment.
the collapse of the baltic dry index is a most underappreciated event. sounds like global trade is completely paralyzed...this tells me shortages are soon to follow. this is important stuff...1930's deflation: the shelves were loaded with goods..there was no money around to buy them, that was the problem...i dont see our shelves loaded in this so-called deflation. our fiat currency dictates that there will be money around this time, perhaps too much money...inflation will return...the composition of our currency is such that it is too easy to make, create....our elected politicans cannot resist printing when our currency becomes scarce like it is right now...it just bothers me that the decision has been made for all of us that the repurcussions of letting the mkts go their own way are too nasty...that the authorities must act and committ more debt-ridden bailouts to save us from this awful doom..that we dont know this, but they do...its fkn wrong...
I guess Hanky and Ben wseren't brought up on old episodes of Star Trek. When things spin out of control and all measures fail to work, then you simply have to Reverse The Process
re upcoming homelessness, not everyone has relatives to crash with, and not everyone will be employed when they foreclose.
The impending wave of foreclosures doesn't scare me per se, but the impending massive unemployment surely does.
I'm in favor of an unpleasant, but safe and sanitary gov't sponsored housing option for those who truly have no place to go. These will be displaced renters whose landlords foreclosed as well as home debtors.
I agree the foreclosures and price disclosures should be encouraged. I may actually buy property someday if prices come down. But I want a more humane option than the one Tom Joad faced for the crowds of economically displaced.
Fund Investors Sue Countrywide Over Loan Modifications
By VIKAS BAJAJ
A hedge fund sued the Countrywide Financial Corporation, demanding that it compensate holders of some securities backed by mortgages if the terms were changed.
Art Eclectic writes:
...tapes a notice on it, then takes a picture and walks away. ... It was a notice of Trustee Sale for the house - but he got the address wrong and it was for my next door neighbor.
My God, how sloppy can americans get ?
You would lend them even a dime ?
Liquidation auction. Thin crowd, tight money. When, after length, price is simply untenable (not intrinsically linked), auctioneer has straw man bid high and closes. No real transaction, just a no bid/low bid and shell purchase to keep up appearances. Got treasuries?
Ultrashorts up 11% yesterday on Dow drop of over 600 pts, down 12% today on rise of just 200. Time to take chips to the cashier cage; virtual world trumps reality.
Just try buying bullets in bulk...good luck. All 1000 round boxes SOLD OUT everywhere that I look. Government is stationing 20000 US troops on US soil. A communist is elected president. Amnesty is virtually a done deal, despite 10 million out of work. Partial-birth infanticide will not be illegal. The government lends over 8 trillion mostly to entities that are not disclosed, and they will pay it back? US Treasuries rates are at record lows- which means that the US Dollar is virtually worthless. The media covers-up the Mumbai 9/11; gives more press to a sexchange birth. Foreclosures in 2009 will surpass all since 2005.
Looks like someone's local store ran out of tin foil...
It seems that all of my local car rental outlets are cutting back hours and all but eliminating the hours in which I pick up/return cars. This might actually force me to buy a car. I get a lot of various brands of cars as rentals these days, and based on my experiences I have no problem buying American. Mr Mulally, you're welcome.
Art Eclectic writes:
...tapes a notice on it, then takes a picture and walks away. ... It was a notice of Trustee Sale for the house - but he got the address wrong and it was for my next door neighbor.
Have your lawyer send them a demand letter for compensation for your mental anguish, damage to your reputation due their posted a foreclosure notice on your house, and legal expenses.
The foreclosures will be bad enough but with the increase in unemployment we will see tent cities. 2009 looks real bad. States and local governments broke as well and the Federal Government dropping worthless pieces of green paper from helicopters. Mad Max lives!
Seems we can learn a lot by listening to radio ads.
The latest that I'm hearing often is from a law group who will go over a homeowner's mortgage docs and look for Truth in Lending violations. Considering the sheer number of fly-by-night mortgage 'professionals' who were slamming crap here in CA the last few years I have no doubt that this law group will be successful in their quest.
House prices are coming down...either by foreclosure and increased inventory, BK cram-downs or shyster lawyers making an easy buck.
Re: Lie Detectors
Answer each question with GO TO FUCKING HELL AND STAY THERE!!!.
I don't understand why one has to cooperate with the operator.
When enough of us lose faith in government we may hear that phrase a lot.
"mal writes: Some of "all those people" are going to be shacking up with Mom and Dad, Aunt Martha, or Grandma and Grandpa. We forget that the American population has atomized itself over the past few decades"
So, wait. This metric of "consumer" used to describe mortgage delinquency is just weird. Households have mortgages. Households comprise consumers. How does the intersection of that line up, exactly? Are larger households more likely to get foreclosed on or less?
And, is this out of all consumers, or only consumers living in households with a mortgage (roughly 1/3 of households)?
hate to disagree with Brock Sampson who wrote
dan: Lie detectors don't work, especially against such skillful liars.
an old classmate of mine from Columbia Law who works in defense intelligence - she has prosecuted many cases - says they do work very well but you have to use around 11 tests where in each interrogation you toss in many tiny gotchas' and then pull the noose tighter on numbers 9 to 11...
Lost your Job? Facing Foreclosure? Get the Credit you and your family needs in order to survive! Show Proof of income and employment even if you are not working! If you are in a personal recession, dont lose it all...... replenish your arsonal with this payroll paystub program!
Gee, I'd like to say "first", but...
shoulda, coulda, woulda.
where will all those people go? giant tent cities at walmart? /shudder.
Kinda like the A2/P2 spread below circa June 2007. Wait until the FCs really start rolling.
Several years ago, my better half was suggesting that we purchase a rental property and I demurred.
Think that the best time to do so will be in about a year or 18 months, give or take.
this is a good post by yves on some of the mysteries of CDS debt market, especially read the comments for extra insight.
So Do CDS Counterparties Post Collateral or Not?
So Do CDS Counterparties Post Collateral or Not? « naked capitalism
I believe he means the loans will be "recasting", doesn't he?
12th,
He must. Whatever resets will occur will probably be favorable. Not so with the recasts for the Neg Am loans.
I wonder if the report has considered that many resets will be based on a favorable benchmark that will lower payments. Of course I don't know the breakdown, but someone here will no doubt provide the translation. I wonder if it will make a difference.
Over seven percent would indicate nearly 8,000,000 homeless within a year. Serf Alan has it right, they'll camp out near their single source of supply.
OT: AIG Gives ‘Retention’ Pay After Scrapping Bonuses
AIG Gives ‘Retention’ Pay After Scrapping Bonuses (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
wow...
"where will all those people go? giant tent cities at walmart? /shudder."'
Would give me yet another reason to not go anywhere near a Walmart.
I don't think the number will get that high. Our economy won't be able to handle it. I think there would be some sort of massive government sponsored bailout before we hit 7%.
After watching this unfold for 18 months.. I find myself kind of numb and unsure how to proceed. What are the people doing who see this getting worse doing (investment strategy wise)? I myself am underweight financials, holding mostly cash.. and short term bonds.. what else?
thx peeps -
Over seven percent would indicate nearly 8,000,000 homeless within a year.
Just because you can't afford your mortgage payment once it fully amortizes doesn't mean you can't afford to rent somewhere else.
These homes were never affordable for most of the people getting into these loans. Once they recast, they can't afford them. Throw in the fact that they are all underwater and these people will just go rent somewhere, instead of living in tents or being "bandos".
Re; AIG:
You say "potayto," I say "potahto."
You say "retention agreement," I say "ongoing taxpayer ass rape."
"where will all those people go? giant tent cities at walmart? /shudder."'
good question, the televisions of old days would have served as good boxes to live in but now with all the flatscreens....crap.
12th: Right! So the foreclosures will suck up the excess property currently on the market and pay rent. This won't do much for the excess property situation though. Good point.
Some of "all those people" are going to be shacking up with Mom and Dad, Aunt Martha, or Grandma and Grandpa.
We forget that the American population has atomized itself over the past few decades. Even now, people are returning to their places of origin. We comment on the Mexicans doing it, but not on Americans doing it.
You'll see a mild population shift as many people retreat from the housing-collapse-blighted locales back to the states that have better social services and a couch to crash on.
I don't think the number will get that high. Our economy won't be able to handle it. I think there would be some sort of massive government sponsored bailout before we hit 7%.
charlie | 12.02.08 - 10:06 am |
insert rant about being financially responsible while others get bailed out of their cluelessness here
I understand it has to happen for reasons of social/political stability, but that doesn't mean I have to like it.
And Ditto Elmer Gantry's comment: we're 100% cash at the moment and would like to get into something else...but what?
charlie writes:
I don't think the number will get that high. Our economy won't be able to handle it. I think there would be some sort of massive government sponsored bailout before we hit 7%.
Nothing personal but this i the attitude we need to jettison. Foreclosure is the cure not the problem to be fixed by changing the rules. The consequences of interfering are far worse than using a system that's worked for generations and longer. If you put uncertainty as to the consequences of default into the lending environment the only responses will be to raise rates and lend less.
Rev. Elmer Gantry
Nothing wrong with cash in this market.
And Ditto Elmer Gantry's comment: we're 100% cash at the moment and would like to get into something else...but what?
Depends on how you answer the deflation/inflation question.
And Ditto Elmer Gantry's comment: we're 100% cash at the moment and would like to get into something else...but what?
Mostly Lurker | 12.02.08 - 10:10 am | #
~~well, depending on your risk appetite, inverse dow/s and p, inverse dollar, glod are my long term bets. plus a pile of cash waiting for the dow/housing bottom (or popped into the latter two above if/when things blow first).
a well stocked pantry doesn't hurt!
So let me get this right- Prime loans will have higher default rates than old subprime loans. How are banks gonna securitize prime loans again? Wait, the banks are already insolvent.
We live in interesting times!
Lie Detectors my friends, Lie Detectors. The ONLY way to stop the insanity is to get all of the players together and hook 'em up to the Lie Detector and begin the questioning. I mean , on the topic of mortgages ALONE the results would be utterly riotous as brokers and financiers and others tried to wiggle their way around the "dark" lies of valuation fraud, application fraud, etc., and the little "white" lies of 'dropping rates are a good sign' and 'now's the time to buy' and 'I have a great FHA loan deal just for you'.
Oh boy, Obama is about to speak,
We are getting to many pep talks, if things were ok/getting better then why the need to shove some talking head on us every day saying, "It's fine, nothing to see here, we're doing a great job."
Sell into the rally, folks.
Looks like somebody opened the spigot on the 10AM pump.
I'm still waiting for TPTB to acknowledge we built too much housing and especially too much fancy housing and discuss how this problem will be solved. "Saving" the market is not possible because if all these houses are valued based on costs there are too many.
I fail to see why this is impossible to solve. Hard, yes, impossible: no.
Spend less than we're giving to Citi and Goldman, Welfare, and just buy all the effing mortgages. For everybody who's DTI is piss poor, offer a choice. Keep paying your mortgage, or right now go for a bailout. We'll cram down all these balances for a price--lost appreciation plus a recourse payback scheme just like in bankruptcy. Now, buying the mortgages recapitalizes the derelict banks, too, so we'll extract a price from them, too: Nationalize the f@ckers. Throw out the top five layers of management. Then resell to the private sector.
Or something like that. Just get it the hell over with.
"Lie Detectors my friends, Lie Detectors."
i'm liking this, we should get all Jack Bauer on them.
"i'm liking this, we should get all Jack Bauer on them."
Jack Bauer lie detector:
1. Secure subject in chair.
2. Obtain table lamp.
3. Yank power cord from lamp.
4. Strip ends of power cord.
5. Plug power cord into outlet.
6. Apply stripped ends to subject as needed until desired result obtained.
Charlie,
What our govt can't handle is servicing more debt. Much if not most of this paper is held overseas. If we bail out one homeowner, we'll bail out them all. If the govt tries to orchestrate a bailout, they'll do it with all the skill of the last bailout; all the efficiency and transparency of Boston's Big Dig and the decisiveness of the Iraq War...with the exception that they've never done this before.
If the government would move aside, I assume more houses would be foreclosed on, banks would have more REO, foreclosure sales would push prices down further toward levels more people can afford, while they scream and holler folks that bought with 0 down and 3% down are losing very little, they can then rent from folks that bought the now affordable houses (most should have been renting all along anyway), people that bought homes as homes and not investments will lose nothing because they have no intention to sell anyway. What is being done now will just slowly drag out the pain.
dan: Lie detectors don't work, especially against such skillful liars.
Frazier woke up with a stiffy. Won't last.
what about really good lie detectors?
In cash and physical gold and silver here. I can't get over how the American economy is a shell game now. The public overleveraged on housing (and everything) and went bust. So the gov't, using its power to tax the bankrupt people, buys the same people's assets. The Fed has become the bookee. This is no way to run a country. What is everyone going to do when tax receipts are next to nil?
OT, we should get the Comscore report on Cyber Monday today if they keep the same schedule as last year, though unsure of time of day...
A former public defender recounts his first experience with a lie detector test and argues for their place in American courtrooms.
I vividly remember my first lie detector test. It wasn't I who was being tested but rather a client charged with rape. I was relatively new to the criminal defense business, having recently been hired by the State of Vermont as Public Defender of the Northeast Kingdom (as the three Northeastern most Vermont counties were called). Before the test began, the test operator took me aside to explain how it works.
"It's real simple," he said. "First I explain the basic theory of the test to the subject: that lying causes anxiety that shows up on my graphs. Then I explain that the test is called a polygraph because I graphically track three of their unconscious physiological responses at the same time. Then I explain that they can't get away with lying to me since only someone trained as a yogi can simultaneously control all three physiological responses (breath, heart rate and galvanic skin response). Then I wire them up to these graphs and tell them to pick a number between one and ten. I tell them to answer no each time I guess a number, even if I guess the right number. When they answer no to the right number, it always causes a spike in the graphs. I stop the procedure at that point, tell them they lied and show them the graphs. Now that they're convinced that my graphs can read their mind, their responses go haywire when they lie in the course of my actual questioning. The fact is, very few of the people I test bother to lie after this introduction. I get more confessions than the police ever could by a mere interrogation."
To the moon!
dan: Lie detectors don't work, especially against such skillful liars.
Brock Sampson | 12.02.08 - 10:25 am |
or, as a brilliant partner I used to work for said "You know, his problem is he believes his own bullshit".
nods I'm wavering on gold, hoping it goes down a bit first. we're pretty risk averse folks--making money comes in a distant second to making sure we don't wind up worse off than where we started. If we can preserve capital and be positioned to move quickly quickly to avert any inflation, that's good enough for us until the future becomes a tad clearer. The pantry is well stocked, and we break ground on the veggie garden come spring.
or, as a brilliant partner I used to work for said "You know, his problem is he believes his own bullshit".
"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it"
Personally know of six people in foreclosure. Two of em moved out voluntarily, the other four are staying put and no one seems to be in a hurry to boot em out. There really needs to be more social stigma attached to this process. I'm dreamin, but would love to see an investigation of the mortgage broker and real estate agent on every foreclosure. One of the mind blowing things about this whole financial meltdown, is that NOBODY seems to be going to jail.
"Then I wire them up to these graphs and tell them to pick a number between one and ten. I tell them to answer no each time I guess a number, even if I guess the right number. When they answer no to the right number, it always causes a spike in the graphs."
Cool, but what happens if the subject just doesn't pick a single number? What if they pick two or three? Doesn't that screw up the tester's results?
It would work if the subject was forced to actually write a number down on a slip of paper.
OT, we should get the Comscore report on Cyber Monday today if they keep the same schedule as last year, though unsure of time of day...
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 12.02.08 - 10:28 am | #
Cyber Monday? Pshaw. Some PR flack's bullshit story.
Apparently, Ford "does not anticipate a liquidity crisis in 2009".
THEN WHY DO YOU NEED THE MONEY?!
Over seven percent would indicate nearly 8,000,000 homeless within a year.
and
Just because you can't afford your mortgage payment once it fully amortizes doesn't mean you can't afford to rent somewhere else.
Good point. And the point about people moving in with relatives. Also remember that mortgage delinquencies today may not show up in actual forclosures for a really long time in some states. So the effects might take a while to be seen.
@safe,
According to Mullaly at the last hearing, he doesn't need the money. He was just their because if GM or Chrysler went bust, suppliers would go bust, and then Ford might go bust. Now you just have to believe it...
Gary,
Useful data point for tracking online holiday sales as it had been collected for several years...should be as dismal as the rest of the online sales story this year (overall down 4% as of last week).
On lie detectors:
Some years ago two detectives told a dimwitted suspect they were connecting him to a lie detector. Put a colander on his head. Sat him next to a copy machine with a pre-set original on the glass. Every time he answered a question they pushed the start button and out popped "He's Lying". Guy confesses. (The judge was not amused, however. He dismissed the charges.)
Hangtown said:
"I'm dreamin, but would love to see an investigation of the mortgage broker and real estate agent on every foreclosure. One of the mind blowing things about this whole financial meltdown, is that NOBODY seems to be going to jail."
So right--and it's the only reason I'm not totally sure about just letting homeowners take their medicine and get tossed out on the street. If we're letting the scam artists who knew better get off scot free, how do we justify punishing the (admittedly stupid) people who got bilked? Comes off looking a lot more like corporate oligarchy than justice--and that's the kind of stuff that eventually sparks mass rioting in the streets.
Ah, moral Hazard...
I have 2 relatives who work processing foreclosures. The 90 moratorium on foreclosures means they aren't doing any work right now. But there is a big pile stacking up for the day the moratorium ends.
s0mebody,
Thanks for the clarification. Still don't believe, even then.
Mostly Lurker writes:
nods I'm wavering on gold, hoping it goes down a bit first
Take it when you can get it. Kitco finally has some in stock. Perth Mint not taking orders till for two months..
one thing for sure, this will be an interesting blip on the next few census data collections.
Census Data Products
c.e.,
OK as comparing against prior years I guess, I'm just complaining about the manufactured bullshit factor.
Press release folderol, but I guess even that can be compared to prior results for an indication of trends.
If things went as I suspect, we should all follow YSLP's lead - Next bubble is in brown pants.
Didn't someone call this yesterday?
Treasury Should Consider 100-Year Debt, BlackRocks Fisher Says
By Thomas R. Keene and Michael J. Moore
Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- BlackRock Inc.s Peter Fisher said the U.S. Treasury should consider selling 100-year bonds to ease the federal governments borrowing costs as it faces a budget deficit expected to top $1 trillion.
Treasury Should Consider 100-Year Debt, BlackRock’s Fisher Says - Bloomberg.com
Gary,
LOL, brown pants and cleaners?
Treasury Should Consider 100-Year Debt
LOL! We, the current generation, can't seem to live within our means, so lets leverage up the next 4 or 5 generations too!
With what's going on in Treasuries it would not be a total surprise to see movement toward equities and "potential"
higher returns. Ill-advised at this point. Cash!
100 years; what a joke. And the borrowing costs right now are tiny. What's the purpose again?
When the Treasury bubble blows, think of the duration hit on the 100-year. Pension funds would be slammed with a couple of ticks.
Another "smartest guy in the room" proves to be a dunce in the corner.
Maybe a few more Congressional phone calls are in order?
AIG Must Name Executives Getting Retention Pay, Cummings Says
By Hugh Son
Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc., the insurer rescued from failure by the U.S., should name executives getting retention payments and explain why the awards are needed, said Representative Elijah Cummings.
AIG Should Name Staff Getting Payments, Cummings Says (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Oh don't worry about the terms of sovereign debt. The USA can always re-finance right? Right? [crickets]
Let me summarize for everyone:
Things will be bad in 2009
Cordially,
K.
Gov. Ed Rendell says governors want strong commitment to infrastructure
governors opposed to what they call a "bailout mentality"
>
hmmm
OT, anyone following the velocity of money? still quite deflationary -
M1 Multiplier
Census Data Products
this is a good read on the Debt Deflation theory of great depressions by irving fisher, pdf -
The Debt Deflation Theory of Great Depressions
The Wall Street Bailout is quickly reaching into the trillions-of-dollars, and many analysts are speculating as to the current running total of the outlays thus far, while other financial experts like John Bogle, the founder of the Vanguard Group, are questioning the legitimacy and impact of the costs to maintain this overly-complicated system even when economic conditions are good.
The Financial Industry Takes Too Much : Information Security Resources
"That means we lose to the market by, you know, over a half a trillion dollars, year after year after year. And investors have to know about that, because it speaks to a real flaw in our system, where the financial system is consuming an excessive share of the economys resources it turns out the financial sector subtracts value from society."
One of the mind blowing things about this whole financial meltdown, is that NOBODY seems to be going to jail.
Hangtown | 12.02.08 - 10:38 am |
SEC/DOJ investigations take a long time. Executives are now too savvy to send smoking gun emails. Prosecutors have to triangulate testimony from various parties to even get a plea. I'd figure we'll have to wait about 2 years from the meltdown. The SEC is also understaffed due to hiring freezes...budget cuts.
@lama,
And they have to go after the real evil doers like Mark Cuban.
governors opposed to what they call a "bailout mentality"
Didn't you see CA Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi doing the bailout shuffle? The "threat" is that CA runs out of cash by February. That presupposes no COP/RAN failures. This morning some of those are 6%+ and double tax free.
Swim away, people. Swim away. Go live in the abandoned house down the street.
"That means we lose to the market by, you know, over a half a trillion dollars, year after year after year. And investors have to know about that, because it speaks to a real flaw in our system, where the financial system is consuming an excessive share of the economys resources it turns out the financial sector subtracts value from society."
Direct link to Bogle interview audio (money shot at 4:22 out of 5:28)
NPR Media Player
Stocks Rise on Reassuring Comments From Ford CEO- AP
...and the insanity continues.
with thanks to Anthony at 11:07
Rabid open policy of kicking the can (even by the smallest of increments) down the road. I wag my head to see the sophisticated means our gov't uses to pull the oldest and shoddiest manoevres of deadbeats. Foreclosure moratoriums; moving tokens of arbitrary value from one pocket to the other; rushing about assuring creditors of creditworthiness but paying only the absolute minimum to keep up the ruse. Manipulating markets seeking to self-correct and clouding any clear view of true state of affairs.
Having gone down this path, the short term future will be volatile and careening.
Breaking the oldest timeworn ethics: Thou shalt not bear false witness, thou shalt not steal, thou shalt not covet, thou shalt not have any other gods before ME.
Loose the orgy of the golden calf.
Any opinions on buying a GS bond @ 5%, maturing 05/09 vs, a Countrywide @ 6% maturing on 04/09? Risky?
OT, but interesting:
Swedish government 'rules out takeover of Volvo Cars'
STOCKHOLM (AFP) The Swedish government has ruled out a takeover of the country's beleaguered automaker Volvo Cars if its owner, US group Ford, decides to sell it, daily Dagens Nyheter reported on Tuesday.
"It's not in our industrial policy to own carmakers and we will not jeopardise taxpayers' money," Enterprise and Energy Minister Maud Olofsson told Sweden's newspaper of reference on the sidelines of a meeting in Brussels.
AFP: Swedish government 'rules out takeover of Volvo Cars'
"100 Year Debt" headline
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 12.02.08 - 10:55 am | #
100 year debt! Why not go all in and just issue perpetuities like the 18th british crown?
I don't think the number will get that high. Our economy won't be able to handle it. I think there would be some sort of massive government sponsored bailout before we hit 7%.
charlie | 12.02.08 - 10:06 am |
This assumes that the power of the government is limitless and that they can bail anything and everything out without ultimately collapsing under the weight of bad debt.
A more historical perspective suggests that maybe the government will ultimately lose the power to borrow from abroad and then it's own citizens if it continues to borrow money to spend in ineffective ways.
I think this would be a prime time to issue 100 year debt. It's certain that the government will have at least some debt for the next hundred years, so why not fund as much as possible at rock-bottom interest rates? If I could take out a 100 year mortgage on my house at a 2% interest rate I probably would. I'm willing to gamble that I can make more than the 1.5% real cost of the money after itemized deductions most years.
The British government used to issue perpetual debt. It turned out to be a great deal for the government (not such a great deal for the lenders). In the long term, with inflation, the debt became next to worthless. In effect, voluntary taxation.
Big 2 anouncement - will be driving autos to bailout meeting, Nardelli plans will remain a secret - No $ for private jets - How touching can this be.
Gov. Ed Rendell says governors want strong commitment to infrastructure
governors opposed to what they call a "bailout mentality"
>
hmmm
REBear
I.E. governors want bailouts disguised by good marketing.
ahh, the 100 yr mortgage. japan did that in their deflationary crisis in '90. yeehaw!
"New 100-year mortgage explained. [Loan officer Toro WATANABE - (thru translator) says we require borrowers to furnish certification of their children.] [Economist professor Takahiro MIYAO - says children will inherit both the assets and debts of parents.]"
Headline: Japan / Housing / 100-Year Mortgage
"If I could take out a 100 year mortgage on my house at a 2% interest rate I probably would. I'm willing to gamble that I can make more than the 1.5% real cost of the money after itemized deductions most years."
This would just cause another housing bubble. I don't think we want that.
True story from Southern California...
Yesterday afternoon some guy comes to my door and tapes a notice on it, then takes a picture and walks away. I watched this from a window and then went out to see what it was. It was a notice of Trustee Sale for the house - but he got the address wrong and it was for my next door neighbor. Now, the guy next door refinanced several times during the boom to finance their retirement set up back in the Philippines. He tried to sell back in 2006 but the market was already softening and he refused to drop his price because he expected to be able to pull an additional $60k out of the house. He also refused to make repairs and fix the place up to help get it sold.
When it failed to sell, he rented it out and went back to the Philippines. The renters have been sending him checks every month. Back in 2006 I told my other half that my bet was on him walking away and sure enough, he did. I have no idea at what point he stopped paying on the note, but given the state of the industry it is likely to have been a year at this point. So, now the house will be sold in 20 days and the renters have no idea - at least until today when the servicer is due to come back and tag the right house.
We expect to hear screaming at some point today....
Didn't you see CA Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi doing the bailout shuffle?
Oh, what a slippery slope a state bailout would be. As we speak, California is hedging its debate in the hopes of a bailout miracle. These guys would rather give Paulson and Bernanke fellatio than cut spending by 10% and face the wrath of special interests.
With Yen and Bond off lows, PM's neutral, Oil weakening, today's rally looks weak.
失われた10年は、以上に我々の道を歩む。
Obama, governors call for job-creation plans - MarketWatch
"I personally believe that nothing could lift the American people's spirits more than having an economic recovery plan...passed into action on the first day of a new administration," he["I personally believe that nothing could lift the American people's spirits more than having an economic recovery plan...passed into action on the first day of a new administration," he [Randell] said.
In a non-finance forum I've been trying to tell people that buying stocks is a bum idea and even that the current form of the 401(k) isn't a great deal like they think. The reasons I give are the following:
a) If a bunch of retired folks start cashing in their 401(k) they drive prices down.
b) We are in a period of deflation (credit bubble collapse)
c) Companies are no-longer transparent.
Most people over there think that I am crazy and this is the buying opportunity of a lifetime. Furthermore they are convinced buy-hold is the way to go. They also believe that no one can time the market. I gave the example that once the market topped off at 14k, and passed through 12k they should sell, and then if they wait for the market to go back up if they buy at even 11k they will have saved money. Even after giving such clear example they all told me "It's impossible to time the market, I prefer to buy and hold, now bugger off you don't know what you are talking about."
They all don't think that we are like Japan at all...
100 yr bonds have roughly the same duration as 30 yr bonds (16-17 yrs)...after 16-17 yrs, the cash flows are worth nill in present value terms..
Who was it who said that one must dance while the music plays even when it is "ring around the rosies" and collapse is when the music stops? That potemkin village virus has moved up the ladder from some single cell to complete globe. Terrible minstrel show playactors pretending what they are not; hoaxes and charlatans, grifters and hobos aping gentlemen. Violence upon our economic institutions shall mutate to a violence in the commonplace. It, an infection which will pass over all walls and defies containment.
Hot off the presses....Bill Gross - Dow 5k
PIMCO - IO Dow 5000 Gross Dec 08
Ushinawareta Jyunen wa, ijo ni wareware no michi o arumu--?
Instead of lost decade, lost score and four?
the collapse of the baltic dry index is a most underappreciated event. sounds like global trade is completely paralyzed...this tells me shortages are soon to follow. this is important stuff...1930's deflation: the shelves were loaded with goods..there was no money around to buy them, that was the problem...i dont see our shelves loaded in this so-called deflation. our fiat currency dictates that there will be money around this time, perhaps too much money...inflation will return...the composition of our currency is such that it is too easy to make, create....our elected politicans cannot resist printing when our currency becomes scarce like it is right now...it just bothers me that the decision has been made for all of us that the repurcussions of letting the mkts go their own way are too nasty...that the authorities must act and committ more debt-ridden bailouts to save us from this awful doom..that we dont know this, but they do...its fkn wrong...
Because the people running their 401(k)s keep telling them that.
I expect this year's visit from the stooge from T Rowe Price will be...interesting...to say the least.
I guess Hanky and Ben wseren't brought up on old episodes of Star Trek. When things spin out of control and all measures fail to work, then you simply have to Reverse The Process
Works every time.
re upcoming homelessness, not everyone has relatives to crash with, and not everyone will be employed when they foreclose.
The impending wave of foreclosures doesn't scare me per se, but the impending massive unemployment surely does.
I'm in favor of an unpleasant, but safe and sanitary gov't sponsored housing option for those who truly have no place to go. These will be displaced renters whose landlords foreclosed as well as home debtors.
I agree the foreclosures and price disclosures should be encouraged. I may actually buy property someday if prices come down. But I want a more humane option than the one Tom Joad faced for the crowds of economically displaced.
If you say it enough times it will stick.
">>They also believe that no one can time the market."
Then what is up with that clock on CNBC?
Fed plan to buy commercial paper extended to April
I'd like to hear more about that item from yesterday about the closing of consumer credit lines.
CC
It took this long for Bill to figure out the downside of leverage and accept the paradigm shift away from leverage.
Fund Investors Sue Countrywide Over Loan Modifications
By VIKAS BAJAJ
A hedge fund sued the Countrywide Financial Corporation, demanding that it compensate holders of some securities backed by mortgages if the terms were changed.
Art Eclectic writes:
...tapes a notice on it, then takes a picture and walks away. ... It was a notice of Trustee Sale for the house - but he got the address wrong and it was for my next door neighbor.
My God, how sloppy can americans get ?
You would lend them even a dime ?
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Search For Stimulus In A ZIRP World
Liquidation auction. Thin crowd, tight money. When, after length, price is simply untenable (not intrinsically linked), auctioneer has straw man bid high and closes. No real transaction, just a no bid/low bid and shell purchase to keep up appearances. Got treasuries?
Ultrashorts up 11% yesterday on Dow drop of over 600 pts, down 12% today on rise of just 200. Time to take chips to the cashier cage; virtual world trumps reality.
Fed extends liquidity facilities to April 30.
Remember that guy in the hospital in Catch22...when the life sustaining drip bottle emptied they would switch in the now full urine collector bottle.
and so it goes
That's some catch, that Catch-22.
Geez looks like nobody is buying those baseball field wide flat screen TVs anymore!
Consumer Electronics Market Research, Sales Channel Analysis - Tech Channel Index
Just try buying bullets in bulk...good luck. All 1000 round boxes SOLD OUT everywhere that I look. Government is stationing 20000 US troops on US soil. A communist is elected president. Amnesty is virtually a done deal, despite 10 million out of work. Partial-birth infanticide will not be illegal. The government lends over 8 trillion mostly to entities that are not disclosed, and they will pay it back? US Treasuries rates are at record lows- which means that the US Dollar is virtually worthless. The media covers-up the Mumbai 9/11; gives more press to a sexchange birth. Foreclosures in 2009 will surpass all since 2005.
The endgame is upon us.
good question, the televisions of old days would have served as good boxes to live in but now with all the flatscreens....crap.
Hey, the boxes those subzero fridges came in, they're the mcmansions of the corrugated living crowd.
endgame?
Looks like someone's local store ran out of tin foil...
It seems that all of my local car rental outlets are cutting back hours and all but eliminating the hours in which I pick up/return cars. This might actually force me to buy a car. I get a lot of various brands of cars as rentals these days, and based on my experiences I have no problem buying American. Mr Mulally, you're welcome.
100 year debt! Why not go all in and just issue perpetuities like the 18th british crown?
Well that didn't work. I meant to point out that I think that perpetuities are banned by the constituion.
Art Eclectic writes:
...tapes a notice on it, then takes a picture and walks away. ... It was a notice of Trustee Sale for the house - but he got the address wrong and it was for my next door neighbor.
Have your lawyer send them a demand letter for compensation for your mental anguish, damage to your reputation due their posted a foreclosure notice on your house, and legal expenses.
The foreclosures will be bad enough but with the increase in unemployment we will see tent cities. 2009 looks real bad. States and local governments broke as well and the Federal Government dropping worthless pieces of green paper from helicopters. Mad Max lives!
Seems we can learn a lot by listening to radio ads.
The latest that I'm hearing often is from a law group who will go over a homeowner's mortgage docs and look for Truth in Lending violations. Considering the sheer number of fly-by-night mortgage 'professionals' who were slamming crap here in CA the last few years I have no doubt that this law group will be successful in their quest.
House prices are coming down...either by foreclosure and increased inventory, BK cram-downs or shyster lawyers making an easy buck.
Re: Lie Detectors
Answer each question with GO TO FUCKING HELL AND STAY THERE!!!.
I don't understand why one has to cooperate with the operator.
When enough of us lose faith in government we may hear that phrase a lot.
only double?
"mal writes: Some of "all those people" are going to be shacking up with Mom and Dad, Aunt Martha, or Grandma and Grandpa. We forget that the American population has atomized itself over the past few decades"
Will people get un-divorced?
So, wait. This metric of "consumer" used to describe mortgage delinquency is just weird. Households have mortgages. Households comprise consumers. How does the intersection of that line up, exactly? Are larger households more likely to get foreclosed on or less?
And, is this out of all consumers, or only consumers living in households with a mortgage (roughly 1/3 of households)?
hate to disagree with Brock Sampson who wrote
dan: Lie detectors don't work, especially against such skillful liars.
an old classmate of mine from Columbia Law who works in defense intelligence - she has prosecuted many cases - says they do work very well but you have to use around 11 tests where in each interrogation you toss in many tiny gotchas' and then pull the noose tighter on numbers 9 to 11...
Lost your Job? Facing Foreclosure? Get the Credit you and your family needs in order to survive! Show Proof of income and employment even if you are not working! If you are in a personal recession, dont lose it all...... replenish your arsonal with this payroll paystub program!
http://www.quickstub.com
x
x
WordPress.com
Making Phony Novelty Forged Doctored Mock pay check paycheck paystubs payroll payslip maker making faking creating create fake faking paystub paystubs pay stubs stub phony Making Phony Novelty Forged Doctored Mock pay check paycheck paystubs payroll payslip maker making faking creating create fake faking paystub paystubs pay stubs stub phony Helping you get the credit you deserve! accounting, business, cash, earn, fake, forge, income, money, novelty, pay, pay check, paycheck, payroll, payroll jobs, payslip, paystub, paystubs, phony, programs, proof of income, software, stub, stubs, tax calculator, tax help, wages, work, work at home, work from home adp quickbooks computer software!
http://www.fakepaycheckstub.com
Test
Test
Ken Cooper | Homepage | 12.04.08 - 9:08 pm | #
Another test
Another test...
Is this getting tedious yet?
Hopefully I'm almost done.