They used the same template as the US is to balance the budget, right? So, we probably just need to nudge one of those numbers over on the profitability plan - 2101 sounds about right.
I don't drive a Ford, but I travel alot and rent a variety of brands and models. Imo, the latest US products (e.g., Saturn Vue, Chevy Malibu, et al) seemed to be fairly competent vehicles that drove well and performed acceptably - however, you still have to deal with the dealerships for service and whatnot, and they generally suck. If the US manufacturers don't fix that issue, it really doesn't matter that the cars are competitive...
Haha, that's how you deal with an ally who sold you fraudulent AAA-rated american financial papers :
Germany rebuffs US on NATO ties for Ukraine and Georgia Reuters South Africa
At a meeting of NATO foreign ministers, Germany led resistance to U.S. moves to advance the membership aspirations of ex-Soviet Ukraine and Georgia, whose ambitions to join the Western military alliance have enraged Russia. Reuters.com
I wonder why this is Reuters South Africa ? Are the american mass media still figuring out the spin ?
I really like my Ford Ranger, drove the Alcan three times in that rig and never so much as a flat - YMMV - bought in Alaska, kept in Texas for two years even without the AC! (but it would start at -40 with a plug in lol)
Ya know, I actually liked my 80s Ford Escort. But everything failed on that car at one point or another, and I ended up with a car with very few original parts after 80K miles. My Toyota Celica? 100K, and I've only changed the oil, plugs, filters, etc. ie, things you expect to change after 100K.
What do the automakers do to whether the storm? You can't offer 0% financing and employee pricing forever.
Actually you can IF the cost structure is low enough - that is the 900 lb gorilla no one want's to mess with. The only way they get there is via BK - rewrite union contracts, wipe out equity and give the bondholder class a sizable haircut. Congress's answer to that is - Got any other options?
citizen energyecon writes:
...Ivan having Europe by the short and curlies, on their knees...
ROFL.
It's dissociating from an fraudulent ally.
Btw, the "BayernLB" encountered a loss of ca. 10B Euro! This is a nice (modern) aircraft carrier. I guess we better had spend this money on our own military defense than lost on your fraudulent papers.
I don't think any of them know how to shop at a truck stop either. You shop for calories, just leave the fruit on the counter. Ding dongs, Ho Hos, Twinkies. Also a 96 ounce cola drink, so you can hit the truck stop again in 45 minutes. Think they'll pick up any chainsaw lighters at the counter? Probably don't smoke either. Wonder if they slide out the black Amex card too? If they get the money, I bet they charter a jet back too. They will make the UAW guy pay, since he has all the money anyway.
It isn't just internal factors crashing all the car makers. The Toyota numbers confirm this. Four things are happening at once. One, the internal business is dying. Too many costs. Second the free wheeling credit of recent years sold forward front loading lots of normal demand. Third the recession. Four demographics. The car buying segment of the population is no longer growing at so much as even replacement rates never mind well above as in past decades.
I think the biggest problem is people who are qualified for loans tend to be people who will keep their cars until they need a new one. These people also tend to not need a car loan. They pay cash.
I like the publicity stunt of them now driving hybrids to Washington...
Do they really think we are that dumb?
Nor Car | 12.02.08 - 1:07 pm | # "
They're doing the necessary and showing respect. Like showing up for a job interview in suit and tie for a position in a company where nobody dresses up. But you do it because it's one way of showing that you really want the job and know how to dress up and be businesslike if you have to.
The Big 3 just realized that they were interviewing. And had to dress up.
"I like the publicity stunt of them now driving hybrids to Washington...
Do they really think we are that dumb?"
It is a nice contrast to not only being automaker CEOs taking airplanes to Washington, but also not even jetpooling, and flying three separate corporate jets.
Does anyone know how much of the decline in auto sales is attributable to a decrease in leasing--especially at the higher end? I'm guessing fewer middle class people will be driving unaffordable luxury cars.
the truck has 178 k on it and has NEVER broken down....spark plugs, oil, filters tires, light bulbs
the focus gets 35 mpg at 70 mile per hour when i run from seattle to salem or...55k miles and one problem...trunk leaked water at high speeds, fixed with silicone glue on gasket.
What are people going to do when they loose thier homes and jobs?
What about what some aquaintances just did?
Renting a huge mcmansion in the central valley at 1/2 the cost of owning it. Rent comes out to be under 300 each and they share meals and "stuff" like a commune. These are 30+ yr old folks from the BA that fled when they lost their tech contracts and job searches have gone completely quiet. 6 bdrms with 8 adults living in it. Three of the adults now have new positions, 2 others on unemployment and one with zero income does all the housework and takes care of the garden (there was no landscaping in the backyard apparently) while he continues to look for work.
If I had to guess, I'd say that those 8 people once had a combined income of over 700k and now they are living on about a 185k income. The old complaint is that they can't keep chickens, otherwise they are having a great time.
If things keep going the way they are, I may bail on my lease and do something similar with my close friends. It's been discussed although it seems weird to revert back to the college dorm days at 40.
Sorry, just the facts. Among the laargest natural gas importers into Germany is Wintershall (sub of BASF group), with the largest source of their reserves being Russia, and their primary strategic partner being Gazprom.
charlie(Unrated) writes:
I think the biggest problem is people who are qualified for loans tend to be people who will keep their cars until they need a new one. These people also tend to not need a car loan. They pay cash.
charlie | 12.02.08 - 1:30 pm | #
Between my wife & I and kids (3) we don't have a single vehicle with less than 150K miles on them, no payments and are not actively shopping for replacements. When we do we'll probably pay cash or mostly cash - might even buy 'used' again if the prices for good used vehicles are as cheap as they were last time I bought (used).
Ya - if I'm their future market then I'd say they got a problem.
Why would anyone be surprised that Germany would rebuff the Ukraine/Georgia power play? It's not all that long ago that Germany and Russia were neighbors (if you are willing to concede that E. Germany was an extension of the USSR). Frankly, the hodge podge of alliances and counter-alliances that are being built (or attempted to be built) are reminiscent of Europe pre WWI.
Peronal opinion is that this has nothing to do with finance.
I do not understand how the market can be positive for a auto bailout? I do not see where people are going to get the money to buy cars?
OT I'm gay and many of my friends who are as well are not making large purchases and we have disposalable income. To me this is not a good time to be tied down with a morgage and car payment.
"If things keep going the way they are, I may bail on my lease and do something similar with my close friends. It's been discussed although it seems weird to revert back to the college dorm days at 40.
deflationary jane"
College dorm days were fun especially if you lived in a coed dorm.
Ford and GM quality has improved greatly. That stigma of 15+ yrs. of crap products is hard to overcome.
Luxury carmakers are going to get a big kick in their heads. Wall St. types dropping like flies and will continue to drop for awhile. Toyota/Lexus, BMW in for leaner times than Detroit. Alabama and SC will see their long term gambles tank.
"Renting a huge mcmansion in the central valley at 1/2 the cost of owning it. Rent comes out to be under 300 each and they share meals and "stuff" like a commune. These are 30+ yr old folks from the BA that fled when they lost their tech contracts and job searches have gone completely quiet. 6 bdrms with 8 adults living in it."
When I lived in San Francisco, 20 years ago, about half the unmarried people I knew in their 20s and 30s lived this way. The college model is one that people know, and can go back to.
I live in a high-cost low-wage coastal California town where rents are high, and I know of at least two households where two couples share the same house. Expect that one to come around, too.
"It's been discussed although it seems weird to revert back to the college dorm days at 40."
I've said this for years - the required retirement savings amounts are out of the league of the majority of people (this board mostly represents a different demographic). Communal living is going to be the only way a lot of people will be able to retire one day.
"Ok, it's easy to hammer the US automakers, but isn't this a back to back bloodbath for Toyota?"
1) On "hammering" US automakers: the contention that their products are inherently inferior and that their labor is inherently expensive are both BS. I have owned five GM products and one Toyota and one Mazda and I can tell you from firsthand experience that the US automakers are very capable of making excellent products when they try to. Nobody who has never owned an American car has the right to say "American cars suck, etc." Even the GM vehicles I have owned that were supposedly crappy products according to their reputation were vastly superior to their Japanese counterparts in some ways, and still are even to this day. I have been neither overwhelmed nor convinced into any sort of brand loyalty by the experience I have had with Japanese cars. That said, with the US automakers' cars (I don't need a truck and probably never will) being what they are today, I wouldn't touch their products with a barge pole.
2) The current state of the US auto industry is almost entirely the fault of overcompensated, undercompetent management. They made the decisions to develop and make the wrong products, they made the decisions to source inferior parts (which are the cause of most of the quality issues with their products that I experienced), they made decisions that demoralized and dis-empowered their engineers and assembly line workforce, they made decisions that turned off their customers.
3) Even with all of the above, the US auto industry still makes the best truck and truck-based vehicles in the world.
4) There is no future in truck and truck-based vehicles except in very small production runs for customers who would use them day in and day out.
It is a nice contrast to not only being automaker CEOs taking airplanes to Washington, but also not even jetpooling, and flying three separate corporate jets.
some investor guy | 12.02.08 - 1:31 pm | #
Personally, I would be more impressed if they all drove together in a Chevy Volt.
Imagine them trying to get out of the car, with photographers all around, trying not to act like they were all stoved up.
--
Germany, Japan and China are winning the WW III (an economic global war that I forecasted years ago) by kicking sorry Anglo-Saxon asses. America, England, India and Russia are going to be the biggest losers.
There are no bigger dopes than the English-speaking dopes. Period.
Europe can sort out their own energy issues. Nato treaties reaching to the borders of Russia is foolish as is the missle defense placement in Poland. No need to provoke Russia. Bring them into the fold.
Didn't Cheney give them (georgia) a Billion $s recently ? (two months ago ?)
Werner | 12.02.08 - 1:35 pm | #
Last I knew dollars don't stop Russian tanks. It was probably 'get away' money for the Georgian leadership the neocons convinced to sign up with us. Political hush money.
But maybe politicians in the Caucuses are more honest than some of the other cronies Bush McCheney sign up & the money really does get to fixing up stuff the Russians break. Who knows.
BTW - it would be a lot cheaper to offer the Ukrainians 'insurance' than actually 'protect' them from the Russians.
What is Germany going to do about it anyway? The last good German military units went away with E. Germany. Despite those nice "Heritage" rooms the new Germany has been brining in.
I am thinking of buying a Ford truck. I like them, and I actually feel doing it would be like voting, putting my money where my mouth is.
Also, keep in mind that Nissan,etc., have significant plants here in the US. With their suppliers clustered around them. Sales numbers like these will kill entire counties.
Honda and Toyota dealers are actually hurting more so than domestic's as it's more psyche now....Domestics have been hurting for years and are used to this, Import dealers are surprised..my observations in industry..
Not saying thier bleeding more cash, just the fear is entrenched with them (import dealers)now
I remember cramming 7 people into a 4 br flat in the Haight during my undergrad days. Those were some wonderful freaking times.
It's weird how we all spread out as singles and couples after school. I've wondered for a while now if it was because we wanted to or because we were expected to? And the lure of $300 rent is pretty attractive (translates to $1500 into saving each month).
Jas Jain writes:
Germany, Japan and China are winning the WW III (an economic global war that I forecasted years ago) by kicking sorry Anglo-Saxon asses...
BelieverJeff writes:
Rob,
What do you consider to be the auto buying segment of the population?
Big brush stuff here, please don't nitpick.
18-60+ that aren't in college as the circumscribing universe. This was a growing aglomerating until this year. Many fewer people aging in and sharply more aging out.
Sub-element; the employed. Another number that was growing until 2006.
Sub-element; exurbanites. New household formation and new housing is by definition more likely to need an auto or autos.
So, all told there will be fewer people and fewer people buying cars. Don't get me wrong. I saw this coming. I have documented as long as 12 years ago what to expect as to VMT and VMT/person. The automakers were arrogantly insane to ignore the change in basal demand.
It's energy and geopolitical realpolitik (see dryfly's observation above).
Yes, that's true but you simply have to add Werner's points as well. The world and especially the Europeans that bought a lot of AAA rated crap feel incredibly duped. It resulted in lots of anger. Interestingly, this time the anger is more pronounced on the right (whooocodanoode) whereas after Iraq it was the more pronounced on the left. The combination isn't very U.S. supportive.
Boarding houses may well be a growth industry.
Bob Dobbs
A friend works for a chain of extended stay motels. When he started, the company was family owned, small, 3-4 locations. The owner started the business after giving one his employees from a former company he owned a ride home. The employee lived in a boarding house, paying a pretty penny and the place was full.
The family sold out 3-4 yrs. ago a made a fortune. That business is now dead in the water. The blue-collar types, out of state construction crews have disappeared.
Bob writes:
I think some of you are missing how bad things are for Toyota. They've been doing really bad this year. This isn't just a US automaker problem.
30% and rising of all customers walking into showrooms cannot get a loan of any kind.
I spent a tour in Germany a few years ago, and I think it was to keep the Germans from going back to war against the Russians. You know, if they just had a few more panzers, and better weather, well it would have been different.
Ford's press release states that Ford has gained market share for two months in a row.
I looked at the sales chart and they have two vehicles that are up year-to-date: The Focus (small) and the Fusion (mid-sized). The Focus was refreshed last year and the Fusion gets a significantly new model on dealer lots in the spring. The Focus is ugly but competent, though Toyota/Honda should be worried - the Sync entertainment system is driving Focus sales. Nobody else has anything that competes. Ford has already started converting a factory to build the brand-new Fiesta to slot in below the Focus.
At this time next year Ford will have a fresh lineup of small to mid-sized cars that are apparently taking market share. They will be well-positioned in the industry.
ova writes:
BTW - it would be a lot cheaper to offer the Ukrainians 'insurance' than actually 'protect' them from the Russians.
yes instead of selling insurance called credit default swaps
we could sell them invasion default swaps
we guarantee their territorial integrity for a fixed premium, say 10% of their gpd per year and if invaded and conquered we agree to either pay them the net worth of their country
german tanks are quite good, but russia has a cheaper solution -
The RPG, or rocket-propelled grenade, has long been popular among insurgents, giving them a cheap anti-armor weapon that requires little training. The latest version is the RPG-30. And it allegedly can take out today's toughest tanks.
The Chevy Volt was meant to appease the congressional mandate for electric vehicles and not meant to be a viable form of transportation. Check out the Frontline vid that shows the Volt can't drive uphill.
yes instead of selling insurance called credit default swaps
we could sell them invasion default swaps
we guarantee their territorial integrity for a fixed premium, say 10% of their gpd per year and if invaded and conquered we agree to either pay them the net worth of their country
or kick the invader out or..
or not
mock turtle | 12.02.08 - 1:53 pm | #
Yup Georgia was the test marketing of the product - we can even arrange to send the wives of future presidential candidates to the region for photo ops. Anything for the client (except maybe action).
GEE
They must be passing around some fine weed in the Big3 boardrooms. Must be cause they are so near canadian sources Wishin' I go get a few tokes
Fact is nobody is buying cars..worldwide. Honda and Toyota US sales down about a third worst on the high end.Even Prius is down 48% Seems to me that folks forgot how much new car sales were based on bling and the home ATM.
So even if GM/Ford took the pledge and got on the wagon (so to speak) and started producing worthwhile value cars they have no one to sell them to.
So they bailout ain't temporary. Everybody ready to carry them til say 2011?
"CAPESIZE and panamax indices are at the lowest-ever levels recorded in the Baltic ExchangeÂ’s history.
The capesize index today fell to 830 points and the average time charter rate to $2,316 per day, less than 1% of the record high of $233,988 recorded on June 5.
The panamax index also hit bottom at 589 points. Both bulk carrier sectors are now at levels never seen since records began to be kept in 1998 and 1999 respectively."
Thanks - thems fugly numbers - with similar implications for the movement of bulk commodities...as in not moving. Anyone have stockpile size data by locale?
Pavel Chichikov writes:
Why would Germany want to go to war with Russia again?
Yeeiikksss!
Nobody (in Germany) thinks to ever go to war with Russia (or anybody else)!
These times are over. (belive me)
But in light of the recent american fraud, do you really think america would defend us if neccessary ? Maybe NATO is just another AAA-rated instrument?
And would you not think that we Europeans had better spend the billions we lost on fraudulent american papers to beef up our on military ? Every 10billion is one aircraft carrier !!
I am interested to see how manny carriers that will be when this crisis is over.
GM Pieces of shit car...36,000 things start right on cue to fall apart...I bought a brand new Saturn Aura, I have 37,000 Highway miles on it...it drives like a 10 year old car and has been in the shop 3 times for major engine repairs.
I will drive it for now...and told the dealership if I have to miss a days work and bring this car in here again I am leaving it here.
I think that part of the reason Toyota's sales worse on a percentage basis than F's drop is that the Big 2 have been much more aggressive in trying to cut prices and find funding for the individuals who are still trying to buy a new car. The Japanese will meet the American initiatives as the recession deepens, and although their numbers may still suck, I would bet they will be "better" than F or GM..
The Japanese, if smart, would realize they have a chance for a knock-out blow here...assuming this doesn't generate political backlash...
I was so pleasantly surprised with my 2000 Ford/Mazda Ranger that I bought a new one in 2008 and it is even better. The dealerships have gone to hell though.
Government fleet sales are so out of porportion that if you are in the market for an American make, you are an absolute fool to buy new. There are so many used cars under 10K miles on the market that buying new is throwing money away. Government over-buying has been a problem for decades; back in the 50's the problem was solved by loading the year-old fleet vehicles onto aircraft carriers and driving them off into the ocean to dump them, but it's not so easy to get away with that kind of disposal anymore.
Thanks - thems fugly numbers - with similar implications for the movement of bulk commodities...as in not moving. Anyone have stockpile size data by locale?
Don't have data BUT I do know there is one big old pile of corn outside my smallish Midwestern city... larger than a football field and probably 3-4 stories high at the center covered w/ plastic & vented and it was NOT there last year (the corn was sold & consumed by this time last year). That's a lot of corn.
I see those things all over the region - they were not there last year.
Can look at it as a plus or a minus... bummer that it wasn't sold but then on the plus side starving hoards of born & bred dopes know they got food for the winter.
"Don't have data BUT I do know there is one big old pile of corn outside my smallish Midwestern city... larger than a football field and probably 3-4 stories high at the center covered w/ plastic & vented and it was NOT there last year"
Corn ethanol appears not to be the fuel of the future. Shocking.
I would imagine that the return of more communal living will have to be ushered in with some zoning changes. There are certainly locales in my neck of the woods where multiple couples/families living in a single family house, even a McMansion, will violate zoning laws.
I think that part of the reason Toyota's sales worse on a percentage basis than F's drop is that the Big 2 have been much more aggressive in trying to cut prices and find funding for the individuals who are still trying to buy a new car. The Japanese will meet the American initiatives as the recession deepens, and although their numbers may still suck, I would bet they will be "better" than F or GM..
The Japanese, if smart, would realize they have a chance for a knock-out blow here...assuming this doesn't generate political backlash...
Bruce in Tennessee | 12.02.08 - 2:09 pm | #
Um, Toyota was advertising their 0% financing so often that people were tearing their hair out and signing petitions to get the annoying song off the air. Actually, now that I think about it - you are lucky you are clueless.
"General Motors dealers in the United States delivered 154,877 vehicles in November, down 41 percent compared with a year ago. GM car sales of 58,786 were off 44 percent and truck sales of 96,091 were down 39 percent. The steep decline in vehicle sales was largely due to a significant drop in the market's retail demand compared with last year, and continuing economic uncertainty that has negatively impacted consumer confidence."
"There are certainly locales in my neck of the woods where multiple couples/families living in a single family house, even a McMansion, will violate zoning laws.
Yancey Ward"
It is my understanding the gov't doesn't enforce laws anymore unless your name is Mark Cuban.
Good part is you don't have actually pay them. If Georgian govt is no longer in power, who do we pay?
Do you have to be the country invaded to be a counter party? Bummer. That would greatly limit the upside potential of the market... I mean think of the commissions & fees on the India-Pakistan frontier alone. Unfreaking limited potential there - what could go wrong?
The thing that I admire the most about dopes, and there is much to admire, is that they reveal themselves plainly and easily. One has to be blind not to recognize a dope. Born-and-bred American dopes are amusing as hell once you develop the taste to be amused by the way dopes think and communicate. Dopes live for entertainment! They learn to entertain as a means of communication. Dopiness and entertainment are connected.
"They're doing the necessary and showing respect."
Not content to only make money from people who buy their products, they have moved on to now ask Congress to divert a part of the taxation stream to them, thus making money off people who also do NOT buy their products.
I've had my Mitsubishi since 95 and shes right at 200K miles. I am looking to buy another used one same model. I just do not see buying a car which depreciates so fast every few years like so many people do? I'm just perplexed, because it's only a car?
Instead of a car I'm paying off the house.
04 GM truck running great, no brake change with 100K miles..one steering column problem, gm took care of it..
has scratches, room for camping gear, surfboard etc..
Domestics make good trucks this I can attest to..cars ?
Fraud is a tad strong. A little due diligence would have uncovered the poor value proposition and evidence of origination fraud. Wall Street has a history of peddling swamp land.
Anyone that bought that crap should be tending a fast-food window or sweeping the streets.
I'd add a fifth, Rob.
Government fleet sales...
Charles Kiting
Not just govt. Rental and corporate and all the rest. This summer visiting PacNorWest we got a Hummer H3 for our ride. Don't get all judgmental. Triple upgrades and stuff made it tier 2 (standard sedan) affordable. What a freakin' POS. All bling and bad bling at that. Avis, et al used to make their nut with low purchase prices and high resale prices and rapid turnover. They got creamed on both ends. They'll be the REITs of 2009.
And my experience? By the time I put on 1500 miles all I could think was Highlander/Pilot, Highlander/Pilot, ...
"Next up a very similar demographic bust; colleges. Exact same reasons.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.02.08 - 2:06 pm | # "
Wouldn't bother me. In California, there'd be a huge win if the state university system, UC system, and community college system were more tightly integrated. Makes no sense to have a state college down the road from a community college and a university, and all three teaching the same general ed classes.
We waste a zillion now. And I say that as a Lib-ur-al.
We have gone to cash after selling the over priced house. We will hunker down in our mountain cabin. I know I know it is not a good idea to hunker down in a place that has seen winter snow falls of over 40 feet - but hell that was back in 1850 or so. We will need another vehicle with 4 wheel drive up there. This is good news for us. Crash and burn car and housing markets!!
We may get a great deal on a new truck as well as a new house.
I feel for those who are getting hammered by the economy but I also know it is people like us who will be asked to pay for the help extended to business and people. I hope the payment is not too large and really helps people in need.
re: Toyota ; the Prius hasn't been getting the best of reviews from people I know. Strictly anecdotal. It seems like a car to buy as a lifestyle statement, but gas has plunged and they are really small for $22,000 +. There are a lot of cars that get good mpg that not even hybrid.
Purple,
Agreed. There are loads of people who have Priuses in the garages of their 3500sq/ft homes.
I had heard the Japanese manufacturers were moving to clean diesel and phasing out hybrids. The domestic manufacturers are still planning to introduce more hybrids; seems a bit late.
ot so proud owner of 2003 gmc 1500 pickup. I purchased brand new off the lot in 2004 for $13500. I was looking for the least expensive full sized truck available. white, manual trans, am/fm radio, hand crank windows etc. within a week the plastic housing on the tailgate handle fell off. I have received recall notices for 3 seperate issues. in addition when i used the left turn signal the hazards would come on(highway driving only for some reason). Current problem is the instrument panel. reads in spanish only- odometro 43000 or cambio el "oil" porta es operto. all the more annoying given that Im a carpenter and the illegals have been eating my lunch the last few years.
@purple - a friend of mine got a Prius as a rental and wasn't too impressed. He said that the drivetrain takes a lot of getting used to. The way he described it to me was very similar to the Camry hybrid I drove. I don't think it's necessarily a function of the hybrid system, as the brand-new Audi A4 2.0T I drove exhibited the same slight bit of roughness/hesitation when you start from a stop. I used to own an A4 with the 1.8T but it had a manual transmission and was a great car to drive. I think it is more of a function of the new crop of energy-efficient automatic transmissions and small-displacement motors that don't produce a lot of torque until they are spun up a little bit (or have an electric motor assist them).
For my money, I'll only drive a new automatic if it's got a V6. Otherwise, give me a manual.
Well that rally seems about over. And whats Europe getting so steamed about with our MBS crap. Hell, they financed our railroad expansion and bust dozens of times. Its just payback.
when i used the left turn signal the hazards would come on(highway driving only for some reason)
Anonymous | 12.02.08 - 2:35 pm
I had an '04 Trailblazer which had the same problem, not limited to the highway. GM fixed it, I believe via a recall.
Decided to get rid of the thing after the instrument panel started going flaky--oil and fuel gauges stopped working, then started pointing 180 degrees out of whack. After a while, it self-resolved. But, this is stuff that is supposed to last the life of the vehicle. At 60K miles, perhaps I was at the vehicle's retirement age.
Traded it on an '08 Toyota Sienna last January. Very very happy with the Sienna.
Allen C writes:
Fraud is a tad strong. A little due diligence would have uncovered the poor value proposition and evidence of origination fraud.
Nope!
A little due dilligence...
You forgot what securitisation (CDO suared/qubed etc.) was for ? Who do you want to fool ? And AAA-rated by an NRSRO agency, overseen by concress !!
Could you imagine a german banker telling his superior that he is not going to buy these nice good yielding AAA papers in e.g. 2006 ? I guess he would have lost his job as he would now if he would now buy AAA stuff!
But look, it is not only the fraudulent AAA-papers, it is the realisation that the mortgage brokers (proffering loans onto people who had no chance to pay them back), the securitizers (making the stuff opaque), the NRSRO rating-agenyies (giving them the same rating as government bonds), the regulators (25 agencies looking the other way) and congress (making sure that all this was perfectly legal) all colllud together to make it possible. The collusion of all the above sectors (to make it possible) is the truly remarkable observation here.
And how can you interpret this collution as anything other than "corruption" of the american system ? Systemic corruption it was, yes, and today you still have the same system in america! America has not yet even begun to change its corrupt system.
Fraud is a tad strong. A little due diligence would have uncovered the poor value proposition and evidence of origination fraud. Wall Street has a history of peddling swamp land.
Fraud is NOT too strong a word. The ratings agencies are regulated by the SEC which spelled confidence in their ratings especially by foreign buyers. A AAA rating carried a certain meaning for may, many years and it was pulverized by irresponsibility AND fraud.
Foreign anger is quite justified and will have long-term consequences.
I for one have owned mostly Fords during my life. They have been very reliable cars, having sold all of the with over 175,000 miles on them:
Mustang: 176,000
Pinto: 192,000
Taurus: 205,000
Escort: 180,000
Explorer: 155,0000 and still running strong
Fiesta: 95,000km, just oil and tires so far
I build parts for Ford, Chrysler, GM, Hyundai, and Nissan. The quality systems and requirements are similar between all of them. Ford actually has tighter requirements than Nissan. The Big-3 may have a PR problem, I agree. However, in terms of safety and quality, Detroit still stands right alongside the Japanese.
How is that possible? I mean, it says right here in my Handbook of Conventional Wisdom that foreign car makers always and everywhere do better than domestic car makers!
The ranger pickup is well built. Mine has rolled 310,000 miles with minimal maintenance. Original engine and transmission. I've had good luck with Nissan pickups in the past, but have never had a truck feel so solid after this many miles.
The first car I got to learn how to drive was my dad's 1964 Falcon convertible. It was a really cool car! Three on the tree, small V8. One bad thing: You could use a penny to turn on the ignition. Used to listen to the radio in it. It would be easy to steal though.
I want to buy a car with a jet turbine but these idiots keep making things I do not want to buy.
Ministry of Truth
"By then the company was in dire financial straits and needed U.S. government loan guarantees to avoid bankruptcy. A condition of that deal was that gas-turbine mass production be abandoned because it was "too risky" thus giving roots to many conspiracy theories."
Here we go again. Congress critters engineering autos. Great.
Have you driven a Ford lately?
emo!
Quality is job #1?
But at least Ford has a plan to become profitable by 2011. That HAS to count for something!
Have you driven a Ford lately?
Yep. And it sucked.
Bulletin at the top of the Marketwatch story CR linked to:
"Yahoo shares rise on report of interest from ex-CEO of AOL"
Comical. How many times is Yahoo going to try to sell itself?
Gavshire,
They used the same template as the US is to balance the budget, right? So, we probably just need to nudge one of those numbers over on the profitability plan - 2101 sounds about right.
9th!
I like the publicity stunt of them now driving hybrids to Washington...
Do they really think we are that dumb?
ford's economy, twins, 1960-
YouTube - 1960 Ford TV Ad with the Peanuts!!!
"Have you driven a Ford lately?
Yep. And it sucked."
I actually like my mid-1990's Lincolns.
YMMV
Yahoo and Ford should merge. You can then search for junk and find it real easily.
I like the publicity stunt of them now driving hybrids to Washington...
On top of their symbolic $1 salary and selling of corporate planes. At least somebody got the PR memo.
Meet the new boss writes:
Yahoo and Ford should merge. You can then search for junk and find it real easily.
They did. It's called Craigslist.
Ok, it's easy to hammer the US automakers, but isn't this a back to back bloodbath for Toyota?
What do the automakers do to whether the storm? You can't offer 0% financing and employee pricing forever.
Do they really think we are that dumb?
Nor Car | 12.02.08 - 1:07 pm | #
Yes.
arggg. make that "weather", not whether.
I don't drive a Ford, but I travel alot and rent a variety of brands and models. Imo, the latest US products (e.g., Saturn Vue, Chevy Malibu, et al) seemed to be fairly competent vehicles that drove well and performed acceptably - however, you still have to deal with the dealerships for service and whatnot, and they generally suck. If the US manufacturers don't fix that issue, it really doesn't matter that the cars are competitive...
What do the automakers do to whether the storm? You can't offer 0% financing and employee pricing forever.
weepstah | 12.02.08 - 1:10 pm | #
turn the factory over to the workers?
What do the automakers do to whether the storm? You can't offer 0% financing and employee pricing forever.
Don't worry. They'll make it up in volume.
Ford pickups and trucks are excellent products.
Really.
What do the automakers do to whether the storm? You can't offer 0% financing and employee pricing forever.
-1% financing is tomorrows's 0% financing... they pay you to pay them
So what's this new electric car that Ford says they're fast tracking? Is it anything like GM's $40k Volt?
Yea sure that'll save em.
And it doesn't faze the market at all. We might do 300 points today. Who is buying stock today?
O/T :
Haha, that's how you deal with an ally who sold you fraudulent AAA-rated american financial papers :
Germany rebuffs US on NATO ties for Ukraine and Georgia Reuters South Africa
At a meeting of NATO foreign ministers, Germany led resistance to U.S. moves to advance the membership aspirations of ex-Soviet Ukraine and Georgia, whose ambitions to join the Western military alliance have enraged Russia.
Reuters.com
I wonder why this is Reuters South Africa ? Are the american mass media still figuring out the spin ?
I think some of you are missing how bad things are for Toyota. They've been doing really bad this year. This isn't just a US automaker problem.
Sorry to go OT here, but has anyone else noticed that J.P.Morgan is starting to sound bullish on Glod?
http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganGoldReport-11-25-2008.pdf
If Toyota would only make cars that Americans would buy then they wouldn't be having these troubles...
Wait, they do, don't they?
Oh well, buy a horse.
And it doesn't faze the market at all. We might do 300 points today. Who is buying stock today?
The market already priced this in. It's looking forward to the recovery in 2012.
giacutter,
I really like my Ford Ranger, drove the Alcan three times in that rig and never so much as a flat - YMMV - bought in Alaska, kept in Texas for two years even without the AC! (but it would start at -40 with a plug in lol)
Does Ford sell cars to anyone besides car rental fleets?
Werner,
That is all about Ivan having Europe by the short and curlies, on their knees to keep the Russian natural gas flowing in the winter...
I grew up in the country - lots of Ford F-1xx's in driveways. The local Ford dealer went out of business recently. Anecdotal, but telling nonetheless.
Jett Rink writes:
I grew up in the country - lots of Ford F-1xx's in driveways.
Or maybe even Fx50's?
Ya know, I actually liked my 80s Ford Escort. But everything failed on that car at one point or another, and I ended up with a car with very few original parts after 80K miles. My Toyota Celica? 100K, and I've only changed the oil, plugs, filters, etc. ie, things you expect to change after 100K.
Guess which one I'll buy next.
"Does Ford sell cars to anyone besides car rental fleets?"
Only every department of the US Gov.
But then, so do the other US Automakers.
What do the automakers do to whether the storm? You can't offer 0% financing and employee pricing forever.
Actually you can IF the cost structure is low enough - that is the 900 lb gorilla no one want's to mess with. The only way they get there is via BK - rewrite union contracts, wipe out equity and give the bondholder class a sizable haircut. Congress's answer to that is - Got any other options?
Nor Car asked:
Not only do they think it, they are actually correct.
giacutter(Unrated) writes:
Ford pickups and trucks are excellent products.
They are indeed - problem is how many folks really need a pick up? Or SUV? The vanity penalty for owning one is getting higher and higher too...
citizen energyecon writes:
...Ivan having Europe by the short and curlies, on their knees...
ROFL.
It's dissociating from an fraudulent ally.
Btw, the "BayernLB" encountered a loss of ca. 10B Euro! This is a nice (modern) aircraft carrier. I guess we better had spend this money on our own military defense than lost on your fraudulent papers.
I don't think any of them know how to shop at a truck stop either. You shop for calories, just leave the fruit on the counter. Ding dongs, Ho Hos, Twinkies. Also a 96 ounce cola drink, so you can hit the truck stop again in 45 minutes. Think they'll pick up any chainsaw lighters at the counter? Probably don't smoke either. Wonder if they slide out the black Amex card too? If they get the money, I bet they charter a jet back too. They will make the UAW guy pay, since he has all the money anyway.
--
Dopeland is over-housed and over autoed.
Demand Destruction --> Deflationary Destruction
Jas
Germany rebuffs US on NATO ties for Ukraine and Georgia Reuters South Africa
Thank you Germany!
It isn't just internal factors crashing all the car makers. The Toyota numbers confirm this. Four things are happening at once. One, the internal business is dying. Too many costs. Second the free wheeling credit of recent years sold forward front loading lots of normal demand. Third the recession. Four demographics. The car buying segment of the population is no longer growing at so much as even replacement rates never mind well above as in past decades.
Dawg - That sums it up nicely!
Leftys Liquors and Lubricants writes:
I don't think any of them know how to shop at a truck stop either. You shop for calories
I thought you shopped for hookers and trailer truck(meth)?
Jas is back. Hey, Jas.
Self proclaimed, Prince of Bonds, where is the 30 yr bond going?
I think the biggest problem is people who are qualified for loans tend to be people who will keep their cars until they need a new one. These people also tend to not need a car loan. They pay cash.
World stability hangs by a thread as economies continue to unravel - Telegraph
Anonymous(Unrated) writes:
Germany rebuffs US on NATO ties for Ukraine and Georgia Reuters South Africa
Thank you Germany!
Anonymous | 12.02.08 - 1:26 pm | #
That little stunt in Georgia worked as planned... "You mean we really might have to defend those knuckleheads in the East? F that!"
Rob,
What do you consider to be the auto buying segment of the population?
" Nor Car writes:
9th!
I like the publicity stunt of them now driving hybrids to Washington...
Do they really think we are that dumb?
Nor Car | 12.02.08 - 1:07 pm | # "
They're doing the necessary and showing respect. Like showing up for a job interview in suit and tie for a position in a company where nobody dresses up. But you do it because it's one way of showing that you really want the job and know how to dress up and be businesslike if you have to.
The Big 3 just realized that they were interviewing. And had to dress up.
"I like the publicity stunt of them now driving hybrids to Washington...
Do they really think we are that dumb?"
It is a nice contrast to not only being automaker CEOs taking airplanes to Washington, but also not even jetpooling, and flying three separate corporate jets.
LowerMiddleClass writes:
Jett Rink writes:
I grew up in the country - lots of Ford F-1xx's in driveways.
Or maybe even Fx50's?
Since I haven't really grown up yet, it would have been better to have said 'when I was a teenager' - they still made the F100's then.
Does anyone know how much of the decline in auto sales is attributable to a decrease in leasing--especially at the higher end? I'm guessing fewer middle class people will be driving unaffordable luxury cars.
i own a ford truck and a ford compact
the truck has 178 k on it and has NEVER broken down....spark plugs, oil, filters tires, light bulbs
the focus gets 35 mpg at 70 mile per hour when i run from seattle to salem or...55k miles and one problem...trunk leaked water at high speeds, fixed with silicone glue on gasket.
have owned other fords
i think ford builds very good vehicles
From two posts down:
What are people going to do when they loose thier homes and jobs?
What about what some aquaintances just did?
Renting a huge mcmansion in the central valley at 1/2 the cost of owning it. Rent comes out to be under 300 each and they share meals and "stuff" like a commune. These are 30+ yr old folks from the BA that fled when they lost their tech contracts and job searches have gone completely quiet. 6 bdrms with 8 adults living in it. Three of the adults now have new positions, 2 others on unemployment and one with zero income does all the housework and takes care of the garden (there was no landscaping in the backyard apparently) while he continues to look for work.
If I had to guess, I'd say that those 8 people once had a combined income of over 700k and now they are living on about a 185k income. The old complaint is that they can't keep chickens, otherwise they are having a great time.
If things keep going the way they are, I may bail on my lease and do something similar with my close friends. It's been discussed although it seems weird to revert back to the college dorm days at 40.
Werner,
Sorry, just the facts. Among the laargest natural gas importers into Germany is Wintershall (sub of BASF group), with the largest source of their reserves being Russia, and their primary strategic partner being Gazprom.
Core region - Russia & Caspian
WINTERSHALL: Russia and the Caspian Sea region
Detailing 'strong partner' Gazprom & nat gas import into Europe
WINTERSHALL: Natural Gas Trading
Russia turns the lights of Europe on and off at will when push comes to shove.
charlie(Unrated) writes:
I think the biggest problem is people who are qualified for loans tend to be people who will keep their cars until they need a new one. These people also tend to not need a car loan. They pay cash.
charlie | 12.02.08 - 1:30 pm | #
Between my wife & I and kids (3) we don't have a single vehicle with less than 150K miles on them, no payments and are not actively shopping for replacements. When we do we'll probably pay cash or mostly cash - might even buy 'used' again if the prices for good used vehicles are as cheap as they were last time I bought (used).
Ya - if I'm their future market then I'd say they got a problem.
dryfly writes:
That little stunt in Georgia worked as planned... "You mean we really might have to defend those knuckleheads in the East?
Didn't Cheney give them (georgia) a Billion $s recently ? (two months ago ?)
on the OT topic -
Why would anyone be surprised that Germany would rebuff the Ukraine/Georgia power play? It's not all that long ago that Germany and Russia were neighbors (if you are willing to concede that E. Germany was an extension of the USSR). Frankly, the hodge podge of alliances and counter-alliances that are being built (or attempted to be built) are reminiscent of Europe pre WWI.
Peronal opinion is that this has nothing to do with finance.
I do not understand how the market can be positive for a auto bailout? I do not see where people are going to get the money to buy cars?
OT I'm gay and many of my friends who are as well are not making large purchases and we have disposalable income. To me this is not a good time to be tied down with a morgage and car payment.
Best luck to everyone
"If things keep going the way they are, I may bail on my lease and do something similar with my close friends. It's been discussed although it seems weird to revert back to the college dorm days at 40.
deflationary jane"
College dorm days were fun especially if you lived in a coed dorm.
Ford and GM quality has improved greatly. That stigma of 15+ yrs. of crap products is hard to overcome.
Luxury carmakers are going to get a big kick in their heads. Wall St. types dropping like flies and will continue to drop for awhile. Toyota/Lexus, BMW in for leaner times than Detroit. Alabama and SC will see their long term gambles tank.
Loan the UAW enough money to buy F and GM...Let the employees make the decisions...probably can't do any worse..
LowerMiddleClass writes:
"Or maybe even Fx50's?"
LOL Correctomondo, my friend! The prize is yours.
"Renting a huge mcmansion in the central valley at 1/2 the cost of owning it. Rent comes out to be under 300 each and they share meals and "stuff" like a commune. These are 30+ yr old folks from the BA that fled when they lost their tech contracts and job searches have gone completely quiet. 6 bdrms with 8 adults living in it."
When I lived in San Francisco, 20 years ago, about half the unmarried people I knew in their 20s and 30s lived this way. The college model is one that people know, and can go back to.
I live in a high-cost low-wage coastal California town where rents are high, and I know of at least two households where two couples share the same house. Expect that one to come around, too.
"It's been discussed although it seems weird to revert back to the college dorm days at 40."
I've said this for years - the required retirement savings amounts are out of the league of the majority of people (this board mostly represents a different demographic). Communal living is going to be the only way a lot of people will be able to retire one day.
weepstah,
It's energy and geopolitical realpolitik (see dryfly's observation above).
"Communal living is going to be the only way a lot of people will be able to retire one day."
Boarding houses may well be a growth industry.
citizen energyecon writes:
Werner, Sorry, just the facts. Among the largest natural gas importers ...
Sure, we import natural some gas from Russia.
But they haven't us defrauded yet!
I actually like my mid-1990's Lincolns.
LincVolt - Repowering the American Dream - Fueled by Design
"Ok, it's easy to hammer the US automakers, but isn't this a back to back bloodbath for Toyota?"
1) On "hammering" US automakers: the contention that their products are inherently inferior and that their labor is inherently expensive are both BS. I have owned five GM products and one Toyota and one Mazda and I can tell you from firsthand experience that the US automakers are very capable of making excellent products when they try to. Nobody who has never owned an American car has the right to say "American cars suck, etc." Even the GM vehicles I have owned that were supposedly crappy products according to their reputation were vastly superior to their Japanese counterparts in some ways, and still are even to this day. I have been neither overwhelmed nor convinced into any sort of brand loyalty by the experience I have had with Japanese cars. That said, with the US automakers' cars (I don't need a truck and probably never will) being what they are today, I wouldn't touch their products with a barge pole.
2) The current state of the US auto industry is almost entirely the fault of overcompensated, undercompetent management. They made the decisions to develop and make the wrong products, they made the decisions to source inferior parts (which are the cause of most of the quality issues with their products that I experienced), they made decisions that demoralized and dis-empowered their engineers and assembly line workforce, they made decisions that turned off their customers.
3) Even with all of the above, the US auto industry still makes the best truck and truck-based vehicles in the world.
4) There is no future in truck and truck-based vehicles except in very small production runs for customers who would use them day in and day out.
Ahh, I feel better now.
Werner,
Irrelevant to the decision. Outcome the same even if the 'AAA gold' RMBS actually were gold...
It is a nice contrast to not only being automaker CEOs taking airplanes to Washington, but also not even jetpooling, and flying three separate corporate jets.
some investor guy | 12.02.08 - 1:31 pm | #
Personally, I would be more impressed if they all drove together in a Chevy Volt.
Imagine them trying to get out of the car, with photographers all around, trying not to act like they were all stoved up.
With the bailout we will save/create 2 million jobs. Another 500K to go.
--
Germany, Japan and China are winning the WW III (an economic global war that I forecasted years ago) by kicking sorry Anglo-Saxon asses. America, England, India and Russia are going to be the biggest losers.
There are no bigger dopes than the English-speaking dopes. Period.
Jas
Europe can sort out their own energy issues. Nato treaties reaching to the borders of Russia is foolish as is the missle defense placement in Poland. No need to provoke Russia. Bring them into the fold.
The U.S. Automotive Little 3
Ford: Foreclosed Or Repaired Daily
G.M.: Gigantically Mortgaged
Chrysler: Crapsler.
Cordially,
Kilgore
--
I will no longer answer questions by certifiable dopes.
Jas
Boarding houses may well be a growth industry.
Bob Dobbs | Homepage | 12.02.08 - 1:38 pm | #
Isn't this how Hugh Hefner got started ?
Nice...
I want to buy a car with a jet turbine but these idiots keep making things I do not want to buy.
Didn't Cheney give them (georgia) a Billion $s recently ? (two months ago ?)
Werner | 12.02.08 - 1:35 pm | #
Last I knew dollars don't stop Russian tanks. It was probably 'get away' money for the Georgian leadership the neocons convinced to sign up with us. Political hush money.
But maybe politicians in the Caucuses are more honest than some of the other cronies Bush McCheney sign up & the money really does get to fixing up stuff the Russians break. Who knows.
BTW - it would be a lot cheaper to offer the Ukrainians 'insurance' than actually 'protect' them from the Russians.
What is Germany going to do about it anyway? The last good German military units went away with E. Germany. Despite those nice "Heritage" rooms the new Germany has been brining in.
I am thinking of buying a Ford truck. I like them, and I actually feel doing it would be like voting, putting my money where my mouth is.
Also, keep in mind that Nissan,etc., have significant plants here in the US. With their suppliers clustered around them. Sales numbers like these will kill entire counties.
Honda and Toyota dealers are actually hurting more so than domestic's as it's more psyche now....Domestics have been hurting for years and are used to this, Import dealers are surprised..my observations in industry..
Not saying thier bleeding more cash, just the fear is entrenched with them (import dealers)now
I remember cramming 7 people into a 4 br flat in the Haight during my undergrad days. Those were some wonderful freaking times.
It's weird how we all spread out as singles and couples after school. I've wondered for a while now if it was because we wanted to or because we were expected to? And the lure of $300 rent is pretty attractive (translates to $1500 into saving each month).
Jas Jain writes:
Germany, Japan and China are winning the WW III (an economic global war that I forecasted years ago) by kicking sorry Anglo-Saxon asses...
amen!
(and welcome back)
BTW - it would be a lot cheaper to offer the Ukrainians 'insurance' than actually 'protect' them from the Russians.
Uh oh - I can see it now - "Invasion Swaps"
"The current state of the US auto industry is almost entirely the fault of overcompensated, undercompetent management"
True of many US industries, including the federal and state governments.
BTW - it would be a lot cheaper to offer the Ukrainians 'insurance' than actually 'protect' them from the Russians.
No hiding in the tranches boys..
I just bought a used Nissan cash. Does that help?
BelieverJeff writes:
Rob,
What do you consider to be the auto buying segment of the population?
Big brush stuff here, please don't nitpick.
18-60+ that aren't in college as the circumscribing universe. This was a growing aglomerating until this year. Many fewer people aging in and sharply more aging out.
Sub-element; the employed. Another number that was growing until 2006.
Sub-element; exurbanites. New household formation and new housing is by definition more likely to need an auto or autos.
So, all told there will be fewer people and fewer people buying cars. Don't get me wrong. I saw this coming. I have documented as long as 12 years ago what to expect as to VMT and VMT/person. The automakers were arrogantly insane to ignore the change in basal demand.
"I will no longer answer questions by certifiable dopes.
Jas
Jas Jain"
I will no longer ask you questions. Rosebud.
Bruce in Tenn
yeah i agree, and argued that more than two weeks ago on these pages
the NAV of the big 3 together cant be even half of what they are asking as a loan
how the company is purchased and equity distributed amongst managers and employees is the challenge but there are solutions
(with the feed retaining half until the loan is repaid)
It's energy and geopolitical realpolitik (see dryfly's observation above).
Yes, that's true but you simply have to add Werner's points as well. The world and especially the Europeans that bought a lot of AAA rated crap feel incredibly duped. It resulted in lots of anger. Interestingly, this time the anger is more pronounced on the right (whooocodanoode) whereas after Iraq it was the more pronounced on the left. The combination isn't very U.S. supportive.
The geopolitical consequences are just starting.
If you think Germany has no military prowess, you might want to look up their latest, greatest tanks.
Ranked much, much higher than the one-foot-in-an-oil-barrel variety.
What is driving me crazy is where we are going with the debt, the bailouts, and the Q/E in the context of inflation and interest rates.
600+ dealerships to be closed - wow! Thats a lot of sales people, mechanics. et al
"I wonder why this is Reuters South Africa ? Are the american mass media still figuring out the spin ?"
Why would Germany want to go to war with Russia again? It's not too hard to figure out what the Germans are thinking.
But Georgia and Ukraine are simply not ready to join a modern military alliance anyway. So they will gain admission on the kalends of the Greeks.
Boarding houses may well be a growth industry.
Bob Dobbs
A friend works for a chain of extended stay motels. When he started, the company was family owned, small, 3-4 locations. The owner started the business after giving one his employees from a former company he owned a ride home. The employee lived in a boarding house, paying a pretty penny and the place was full.
The family sold out 3-4 yrs. ago a made a fortune. That business is now dead in the water. The blue-collar types, out of state construction crews have disappeared.
What do automakers do?
Simple: Sell less expensive cars.
I was laughing when I heard that the Volt would cost $40,000. Edsel anyone?
"The automakers were arrogantly insane to ignore the change in basal demand"
Shouldn't "automakers" read as "US citizens"?
Germany and Russia could not muster 25 functional divisions between them. Thats if you gave them 2 years warning.
Bob writes:
I think some of you are missing how bad things are for Toyota. They've been doing really bad this year. This isn't just a US automaker problem.
30% and rising of all customers walking into showrooms cannot get a loan of any kind.
And the US of A will soon be disbanding theirs.
How do you expect to pay your troops without Chinese, Japanese savings et al?
If the criteria for a car loan is 700 plus FICA and a job. Then no surprise.
OnTheRun --
30% and rising of all customers walking into showrooms cannot get a loan of any kind.
No worries; FedLube™ is on the way
"If you think Germany has no military prowess, you might want to look up their latest, greatest tanks."
And you could live in one until the radiation died down.
It's really too bad people have to quote Jas here..... it allows his thoughts to escape the bozo-filter.
I spent a tour in Germany a few years ago, and I think it was to keep the Germans from going back to war against the Russians. You know, if they just had a few more panzers, and better weather, well it would have been different.
Ford's press release states that Ford has gained market share for two months in a row.
I looked at the sales chart and they have two vehicles that are up year-to-date: The Focus (small) and the Fusion (mid-sized). The Focus was refreshed last year and the Fusion gets a significantly new model on dealer lots in the spring. The Focus is ugly but competent, though Toyota/Honda should be worried - the Sync entertainment system is driving Focus sales. Nobody else has anything that competes. Ford has already started converting a factory to build the brand-new Fiesta to slot in below the Focus.
At this time next year Ford will have a fresh lineup of small to mid-sized cars that are apparently taking market share. They will be well-positioned in the industry.
ova writes:
BTW - it would be a lot cheaper to offer the Ukrainians 'insurance' than actually 'protect' them from the Russians.
yes instead of selling insurance called credit default swaps
we could sell them invasion default swaps
we guarantee their territorial integrity for a fixed premium, say 10% of their gpd per year and if invaded and conquered we agree to either pay them the net worth of their country
or kick the invader out or..
or not
Nemo
Fedlube
LOL
"Germany and Russia could not muster 25 functional divisions between them. Thats if you gave them 2 years warning."
Neither wants to fight the other, and who do you know who wants to invade Russia with a tank army? Heinz Guderian?
Add GM down 41%
Ouch!
BTW, German car sales for November dropped 17.6% from the prior month.
Fedlube
That's a picture that didn't need to be painted.
41% ouch!
german tanks are quite good, but russia has a cheaper solution -
The RPG, or rocket-propelled grenade, has long been popular among insurgents, giving them a cheap anti-armor weapon that requires little training. The latest version is the RPG-30. And it allegedly can take out today's toughest tanks.
Russia Unveils ‘Abrams Killer’ Rocket | Danger Room | Wired.com
"You know, if they just had a few more panzers, and better weather, well it would have been different."
Those panzers run on schnapps.
By the way Jaswant. Do you remember this?
"Jas Jain writes:
If only CR can learn to think simply and clearly like Elvis here. But that is very hard for an economist to do.
Jas
Jas Jain | 03.12.08 - 2:02 pm
That was the day I realized how big of a dope you are. Ironic, really.
And have a look at the Tunguska while you're at the anti-tank weaponry...
YouTube - Tunguska M1
GM sales fall 41%
ack, i mixed it up... not the tunguska... bah
althought, it is pretty nifty.
Yield on some Ford paper is above 50%!
"Germany and Russia could not muster 25 functional divisions between them. Thats if you gave them 2 years warning."
Land wars of this scale are a thing of the past. If it would happen again, the US would have bigger problems of their own(currency collapse)
well gm knocked off 100 pts there
The Chevy Volt was meant to appease the congressional mandate for electric vehicles and not meant to be a viable form of transportation. Check out the Frontline vid that shows the Volt can't drive uphill.
CDS is our nation's Melamine poisoning x 2000000
"who do you know who wants to invade Russia with a tank army? Heinz Guderian?"
He didn't want to either. Adolf was the sole nutjob.
yes instead of selling insurance called credit default swaps
we could sell them invasion default swaps
we guarantee their territorial integrity for a fixed premium, say 10% of their gpd per year and if invaded and conquered we agree to either pay them the net worth of their country
or kick the invader out or..
or not
mock turtle | 12.02.08 - 1:53 pm | #
Yup Georgia was the test marketing of the product - we can even arrange to send the wives of future presidential candidates to the region for photo ops. Anything for the client (except maybe action).
GEE
They must be passing around some fine weed in the Big3 boardrooms. Must be cause they are so near canadian sources Wishin' I go get a few tokes
Fact is nobody is buying cars..worldwide. Honda and Toyota US sales down about a third worst on the high end.Even Prius is down 48% Seems to me that folks forgot how much new car sales were based on bling and the home ATM.
So even if GM/Ford took the pledge and got on the wagon (so to speak) and started producing worthwhile value cars they have no one to sell them to.
So they bailout ain't temporary. Everybody ready to carry them til say 2011?
" Anything for the client (except maybe action)"
Copyright, USA.
Dope certification - $10.95
Now this is cliff diving!!
"CAPESIZE and panamax indices are at the lowest-ever levels recorded in the Baltic ExchangeÂ’s history.
The capesize index today fell to 830 points and the average time charter rate to $2,316 per day, less than 1% of the record high of $233,988 recorded on June 5.
The panamax index also hit bottom at 589 points. Both bulk carrier sectors are now at levels never seen since records began to be kept in 1998 and 1999 respectively."
Baltic capesize and panamax indices hit rock bottom - Lloydslist.com
Barley,
Thanks - thems fugly numbers - with similar implications for the movement of bulk commodities...as in not moving. Anyone have stockpile size data by locale?
"Both bulk carrier sectors are now at levels never seen since records began to be kept in 1998 and 1999 respectively."
I think the scrap metal steel markets are about to be overwhelmed by huge ships and steel scrap prices will virutally collapse.
Anything for the client (except maybe action). (dryfly)
exactly, just like CDSs
what percent of those who "sold protection" ever expected (nor were able) to have to pay
"Check out the Frontline vid that shows the Volt can't drive uphill"
That's a problem which can be solved with enough advertising in the right localities.
Broward Horne writes:
"The automakers were arrogantly insane to ignore the change in basal demand"
Shouldn't "automakers" read as "US citizens"?
Picky, picky, picky.
Next up a very similar demographic bust; colleges. Exact same reasons.
Invasion swaps at 10% GDP
Good part is you don't have actually pay them. If Georgian govt is no longer in power, who do we pay?
I'm ready to sell invasion swaps for 1% GDP.
Pavel Chichikov writes:
Why would Germany want to go to war with Russia again?
Yeeiikksss!
Nobody (in Germany) thinks to ever go to war with Russia (or anybody else)!
These times are over. (belive me)
But in light of the recent american fraud, do you really think america would defend us if neccessary ? Maybe NATO is just another AAA-rated instrument?
And would you not think that we Europeans had better spend the billions we lost on fraudulent american papers to beef up our on military ? Every 10billion is one aircraft carrier !!
I am interested to see how manny carriers that will be when this crisis is over.
"And it doesn't faze the market at all"
Maybe it got leaked yesterday. Have you noticed that alot lately?
GM Pieces of shit car...36,000 things start right on cue to fall apart...I bought a brand new Saturn Aura, I have 37,000 Highway miles on it...it drives like a 10 year old car and has been in the shop 3 times for major engine repairs.
I will drive it for now...and told the dealership if I have to miss a days work and bring this car in here again I am leaving it here.
North American car of the year my ass.
"Check out the Frontline vid that shows the Volt can't drive uphill"
That's a problem which can be solved with enough advertising in the right localities.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 12.02.08 - 2:06 pm | #
picky picky picky
so the freaking car dont go too good up hill
but hey how does it do downhill or on the flat..ok?
so just market the car in in kansas and nebraska etc
Hoo let the air out of the Dow?
I think that part of the reason Toyota's sales worse on a percentage basis than F's drop is that the Big 2 have been much more aggressive in trying to cut prices and find funding for the individuals who are still trying to buy a new car. The Japanese will meet the American initiatives as the recession deepens, and although their numbers may still suck, I would bet they will be "better" than F or GM..
The Japanese, if smart, would realize they have a chance for a knock-out blow here...assuming this doesn't generate political backlash...
Correlation coefficient between USD/JPY and S&P 500 appears to be back at 1 this afternoon.
And USD/JPY is starting to do that thing again.
Somebody got a call from Mr. Margin?
Getting an early start on the pre-market whoosh down.
"Really.
giacutter | 12.02.08 - 1:12 pm | #"
I was so pleasantly surprised with my 2000 Ford/Mazda Ranger that I bought a new one in 2008 and it is even better. The dealerships have gone to hell though.
Speed writes:
Hoo let the air out of the Dow?
Ummmm. Oh... sorry. Here, have a cookie.
Four things are happening at once.
I'd add a fifth, Rob.
Government fleet sales are so out of porportion that if you are in the market for an American make, you are an absolute fool to buy new. There are so many used cars under 10K miles on the market that buying new is throwing money away. Government over-buying has been a problem for decades; back in the 50's the problem was solved by loading the year-old fleet vehicles onto aircraft carriers and driving them off into the ocean to dump them, but it's not so easy to get away with that kind of disposal anymore.
Thanks - thems fugly numbers - with similar implications for the movement of bulk commodities...as in not moving. Anyone have stockpile size data by locale?
Don't have data BUT I do know there is one big old pile of corn outside my smallish Midwestern city... larger than a football field and probably 3-4 stories high at the center covered w/ plastic & vented and it was NOT there last year (the corn was sold & consumed by this time last year). That's a lot of corn.
I see those things all over the region - they were not there last year.
Can look at it as a plus or a minus... bummer that it wasn't sold but then on the plus side starving hoards of born & bred dopes know they got food for the winter.
MT says: "so just market the car in kansas and nebraska etc"
What? No way. In front of all passenger seats put pedals on a bicycle chain to wheels for power assist on hills!
RE writes:
The world and especially the Europeans that bought a lot of AAA rated crap feel incredibly duped. It resulted in lots of anger.
RE, yep you got it exactly right.
GM sales down 41%...
Ouch.
Dryfly,
Cheap ethanol? Roit relief in Mexico? So many options, so little transportation to use.
"Don't have data BUT I do know there is one big old pile of corn outside my smallish Midwestern city... larger than a football field and probably 3-4 stories high at the center covered w/ plastic & vented and it was NOT there last year"
Corn ethanol appears not to be the fuel of the future. Shocking.
I would imagine that the return of more communal living will have to be ushered in with some zoning changes. There are certainly locales in my neck of the woods where multiple couples/families living in a single family house, even a McMansion, will violate zoning laws.
I think that part of the reason Toyota's sales worse on a percentage basis than F's drop is that the Big 2 have been much more aggressive in trying to cut prices and find funding for the individuals who are still trying to buy a new car. The Japanese will meet the American initiatives as the recession deepens, and although their numbers may still suck, I would bet they will be "better" than F or GM..
The Japanese, if smart, would realize they have a chance for a knock-out blow here...assuming this doesn't generate political backlash...
Bruce in Tennessee | 12.02.08 - 2:09 pm | #
Um, Toyota was advertising their 0% financing so often that people were tearing their hair out and signing petitions to get the annoying song off the air. Actually, now that I think about it - you are lucky you are clueless.
Link for GM sales:
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"General Motors dealers in the United States delivered 154,877 vehicles in November, down 41 percent compared with a year ago. GM car sales of 58,786 were off 44 percent and truck sales of 96,091 were down 39 percent. The steep decline in vehicle sales was largely due to a significant drop in the market's retail demand compared with last year, and continuing economic uncertainty that has negatively impacted consumer confidence."
Everyone... Hands in air now.... WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!
"There are certainly locales in my neck of the woods where multiple couples/families living in a single family house, even a McMansion, will violate zoning laws.
Yancey Ward"
It is my understanding the gov't doesn't enforce laws anymore unless your name is Mark Cuban.
"In front of all passenger seats put pedals on a bicycle chain to wheels for power assist on hills!"
Even better, a nitrous turbo boost.
Adds some engineer jobs, keeps the existing design,you can sell it as a racing car AND as a "recreational" vehicle.
ho ho ho.
GM sales - speaking of going downhill...
Good part is you don't have actually pay them. If Georgian govt is no longer in power, who do we pay?
Do you have to be the country invaded to be a counter party? Bummer. That would greatly limit the upside potential of the market... I mean think of the commissions & fees on the India-Pakistan frontier alone. Unfreaking limited potential there - what could go wrong?
--
To further the understanding about dopes...
The thing that I admire the most about dopes, and there is much to admire, is that they reveal themselves plainly and easily. One has to be blind not to recognize a dope. Born-and-bred American dopes are amusing as hell once you develop the taste to be amused by the way dopes think and communicate. Dopes live for entertainment! They learn to entertain as a means of communication. Dopiness and entertainment are connected.
Jas
DOWN GOES FRAZIER
Barley, yep, will be a large blip in inventory down the road.
this is a good index to track as well, Capesize number anchored.
Capesize anchored index
CE, here is an exhaustive source on shipping -
Shipping Intelligence Network 2005 - Index
and asia seatrade site -
Seatrade Asia Online
Hoops - gawd I love the Frazier line.. it always makes me laugh.
thx!
No big 3 cars for me . "Life cycle" engineering (design to self destruct within 5 years ) and poor quality keep me away .
serf AG,
many thanks - more data!
"They're doing the necessary and showing respect."
Not content to only make money from people who buy their products, they have moved on to now ask Congress to divert a part of the taxation stream to them, thus making money off people who also do NOT buy their products.
Zoom Zoom:
Big 3...big cuts off MSRP..
Toyota not so much...just bought two with cash, so I know who is clued...
Jas,
Thank you for a most entertaining post.
ova wins pun of the month, even though we are only on the second day.
I've had my Mitsubishi since 95 and shes right at 200K miles. I am looking to buy another used one same model. I just do not see buying a car which depreciates so fast every few years like so many people do? I'm just perplexed, because it's only a car?
Instead of a car I'm paying off the house.
04 GM truck running great, no brake change with 100K miles..one steering column problem, gm took care of it..
has scratches, room for camping gear, surfboard etc..
Domestics make good trucks this I can attest to..cars ?
It looks like the dow is heading toward the PM selloff . I guess that it is Auto sales #s .
"fraudulent american papers"
Fraud is a tad strong. A little due diligence would have uncovered the poor value proposition and evidence of origination fraud. Wall Street has a history of peddling swamp land.
Anyone that bought that crap should be tending a fast-food window or sweeping the streets.
Nemo
re JPY, bonds and oil just icing on the cake.
Whocoodanode that there isn't any risk free return?!
I'd add a fifth, Rob.
Government fleet sales...
Charles Kiting
Not just govt. Rental and corporate and all the rest. This summer visiting PacNorWest we got a Hummer H3 for our ride. Don't get all judgmental. Triple upgrades and stuff made it tier 2 (standard sedan) affordable. What a freakin' POS. All bling and bad bling at that. Avis, et al used to make their nut with low purchase prices and high resale prices and rapid turnover. They got creamed on both ends. They'll be the REITs of 2009.
And my experience? By the time I put on 1500 miles all I could think was Highlander/Pilot, Highlander/Pilot, ...
Dow is about to go negative.
"Next up a very similar demographic bust; colleges. Exact same reasons.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.02.08 - 2:06 pm | # "
Wouldn't bother me. In California, there'd be a huge win if the state university system, UC system, and community college system were more tightly integrated. Makes no sense to have a state college down the road from a community college and a university, and all three teaching the same general ed classes.
We waste a zillion now. And I say that as a Lib-ur-al.
Is the bottom in yet? How is my Tucker Motor Car stock doing?
We have gone to cash after selling the over priced house. We will hunker down in our mountain cabin. I know I know it is not a good idea to hunker down in a place that has seen winter snow falls of over 40 feet - but hell that was back in 1850 or so. We will need another vehicle with 4 wheel drive up there. This is good news for us. Crash and burn car and housing markets!!
We may get a great deal on a new truck as well as a new house.
I feel for those who are getting hammered by the economy but I also know it is people like us who will be asked to pay for the help extended to business and people. I hope the payment is not too large and really helps people in need.
"....there is one big old pile of corn........larger than a football field.......and probably 3-4 stories high at the center...."
Excuse me, my cow would like to know where that is, exactly......
re: Toyota ; the Prius hasn't been getting the best of reviews from people I know. Strictly anecdotal. It seems like a car to buy as a lifestyle statement, but gas has plunged and they are really small for $22,000 +. There are a lot of cars that get good mpg that not even hybrid.
@Bruce in Tennessee - your comments are needed at TBP (The Big Picture )
aren't CEOs cute? we keep them like pets 'cause they can't survive in the real world. lol-CEOS.
The Corolla is a way better value than a Prius. Prius is a status symbol - like stay-at-home moms.
USD/JPY just went thru the 93c Oct low after car sales, bearish for DJI.
speaking of which, who's week is it to clean their litterbox?
"Good part is you don't have actually pay them. If Georgian govt is no longer in power, who do we pay?
Ramzan Kadyrov.
Thread music...
YouTube -
Speed,
uh - whatever - depends more on educational, career, consumption and childrearing choices and values...YMMV.
Purple,
Agreed. There are loads of people who have Priuses in the garages of their 3500sq/ft homes.
I had heard the Japanese manufacturers were moving to clean diesel and phasing out hybrids. The domestic manufacturers are still planning to introduce more hybrids; seems a bit late.
....I bet we see 7K by the bell....
ot so proud owner of 2003 gmc 1500 pickup. I purchased brand new off the lot in 2004 for $13500. I was looking for the least expensive full sized truck available. white, manual trans, am/fm radio, hand crank windows etc. within a week the plastic housing on the tailgate handle fell off. I have received recall notices for 3 seperate issues. in addition when i used the left turn signal the hazards would come on(highway driving only for some reason). Current problem is the instrument panel. reads in spanish only- odometro 43000 or cambio el "oil" porta es operto. all the more annoying given that Im a carpenter and the illegals have been eating my lunch the last few years.
Even better, a nitrous turbo boost.
Adds some engineer jobs, keeps the existing design,you can sell it as a racing car AND as a "recreational" vehicle.
ho ho ho.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 12.02.08 - 2:16 pm | #
---heck with that...waste of good NOX
give the nitrous to the driver and passengers and nobody will care the car dont go so fast up hill
@purple - a friend of mine got a Prius as a rental and wasn't too impressed. He said that the drivetrain takes a lot of getting used to. The way he described it to me was very similar to the Camry hybrid I drove. I don't think it's necessarily a function of the hybrid system, as the brand-new Audi A4 2.0T I drove exhibited the same slight bit of roughness/hesitation when you start from a stop. I used to own an A4 with the 1.8T but it had a manual transmission and was a great car to drive. I think it is more of a function of the new crop of energy-efficient automatic transmissions and small-displacement motors that don't produce a lot of torque until they are spun up a little bit (or have an electric motor assist them).
For my money, I'll only drive a new automatic if it's got a V6. Otherwise, give me a manual.
mt,
that was the "recreational" part...
Well that rally seems about over. And whats Europe getting so steamed about with our MBS crap. Hell, they financed our railroad expansion and bust dozens of times. Its just payback.
..we be a two-Ferd fambly; F150 fer the wif and a F-350 dually crewcab fer Grampa (me) - we're gonna both be buried in them when the time comes.
ew thread
when i used the left turn signal the hazards would come on(highway driving only for some reason)
Anonymous | 12.02.08 - 2:35 pm
I had an '04 Trailblazer which had the same problem, not limited to the highway. GM fixed it, I believe via a recall.
Decided to get rid of the thing after the instrument panel started going flaky--oil and fuel gauges stopped working, then started pointing 180 degrees out of whack. After a while, it self-resolved. But, this is stuff that is supposed to last the life of the vehicle. At 60K miles, perhaps I was at the vehicle's retirement age.
Traded it on an '08 Toyota Sienna last January. Very very happy with the Sienna.
Allen C writes:
Fraud is a tad strong. A little due diligence would have uncovered the poor value proposition and evidence of origination fraud.
Nope!
A little due dilligence...
You forgot what securitisation (CDO suared/qubed etc.) was for ? Who do you want to fool ? And AAA-rated by an NRSRO agency, overseen by concress !!
Could you imagine a german banker telling his superior that he is not going to buy these nice good yielding AAA papers in e.g. 2006 ? I guess he would have lost his job as he would now if he would now buy AAA stuff!
But look, it is not only the fraudulent AAA-papers, it is the realisation that the mortgage brokers (proffering loans onto people who had no chance to pay them back), the securitizers (making the stuff opaque), the NRSRO rating-agenyies (giving them the same rating as government bonds), the regulators (25 agencies looking the other way) and congress (making sure that all this was perfectly legal) all colllud together to make it possible. The collusion of all the above sectors (to make it possible) is the truly remarkable observation here.
And how can you interpret this collution as anything other than "corruption" of the american system ? Systemic corruption it was, yes, and today you still have the same system in america! America has not yet even begun to change its corrupt system.
Fraud is a tad strong. A little due diligence would have uncovered the poor value proposition and evidence of origination fraud. Wall Street has a history of peddling swamp land.
Fraud is NOT too strong a word. The ratings agencies are regulated by the SEC which spelled confidence in their ratings especially by foreign buyers. A AAA rating carried a certain meaning for may, many years and it was pulverized by irresponsibility AND fraud.
Foreign anger is quite justified and will have long-term consequences.
I for one have owned mostly Fords during my life. They have been very reliable cars, having sold all of the with over 175,000 miles on them:
Mustang: 176,000
Pinto: 192,000
Taurus: 205,000
Escort: 180,000
Explorer: 155,0000 and still running strong
Fiesta: 95,000km, just oil and tires so far
I build parts for Ford, Chrysler, GM, Hyundai, and Nissan. The quality systems and requirements are similar between all of them. Ford actually has tighter requirements than Nissan. The Big-3 may have a PR problem, I agree. However, in terms of safety and quality, Detroit still stands right alongside the Japanese.
How is that possible? I mean, it says right here in my Handbook of Conventional Wisdom that foreign car makers always and everywhere do better than domestic car makers!
The ranger pickup is well built. Mine has rolled 310,000 miles with minimal maintenance. Original engine and transmission. I've had good luck with Nissan pickups in the past, but have never had a truck feel so solid after this many miles.
I actually like my mid-1990's Lincolns.
YMMV
sm_landlord
The first car I got to learn how to drive was my dad's 1964 Falcon convertible. It was a really cool car! Three on the tree, small V8. One bad thing: You could use a penny to turn on the ignition. Used to listen to the radio in it. It would be easy to steal though.
I want to buy a car with a jet turbine but these idiots keep making things I do not want to buy.
Ministry of Truth
Don't know if you could find one of these cheap, but Chrysler attempted to make one back in the early 60's:
Chrysler Turbine Car - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Oh, here's a pic of the convertible:
http://www.socalfalcons.com/memberpics/64%20Falcon%20convertible.jpg
Interesting quote from the wiki link:
"By then the company was in dire financial straits and needed U.S. government loan guarantees to avoid bankruptcy. A condition of that deal was that gas-turbine mass production be abandoned because it was "too risky" thus giving roots to many conspiracy theories."
Here we go again. Congress critters engineering autos. Great.
The sixties Falcons convertible were beautiful I preferred the 63 though because of the more elegant grill.
Ford and Toyota did pretty good compared to everybody else. And lest we forget, Toyota sells more cars than anyone.
my '54 jap shitbox is still runnin. never even put gas in it!
What's with the Michigan astroturfers? Big3 betting the bailout will pay for blogposts?