Of all the companies not deserving of gov't capital, Chrysler wins first place... they were intentionally bled of assets and loaded with debt by hedge-fund looting. More than the rest, to give them capital is to bail out the a failed financial business model of asset-stripping and debt-loading under the cover of "business optimization". BK in this case to make the debtholders eat their stupidity is the only rational course of action.
Yet wages shall not inflate.
Not no way, not no how.
Wage inflation is the only "bad" inflation in the opinion of the powers that be. Goes hand-in-glove with international wage competition.
As long as there is a guy in Singapore, Bangladesh, or Guatemala who is willing to turn a wrench for less, you have no bargaining power.
Will new industry, or perhaps "green" tech be any different? Maybe. But even there, only jobs that must be performed "on-site" can avoid out-sourcing or relocation.
Only 49 days before Paulson is out of office. Goldman at $60.00 and going to lose their golden parachute soon. My guess, falls to $5.00 per share and their is a merger. I wonder if Hanks personal wealth of 900,000,000.00 will afford him the opportunity to purchase the company outright.
One car is enough, for all of us
One car is enough, for all of us
It's a subject we rarely mention
But when we do we have this little invention
By pretending they're a different world from me
I shelve my responsibility
One car is enough, for all of us
One car is enough, for all of us
Had the chance last week to speak with two car dealers that I made TV commercials for back in the day.
The one GM dealer told me GMAC wasn't accepting any credit apps except those with a FICO of 700 or better, and with 25% down. He told me for the common folk needing a car, the local banks were going back to the "character" thing rather than FICO scores. They'd look at your track record of paying loans and bills off -- quite a novel idea.
The other GM dealer I talked to had just given up his new car franchises. (I heard from other friends later he had d@%n near pledged everything into the dealerships, and the financial situation he was in was ugly.) He told me GMAC wasn't accepting his credit apps unless the FICO was 720(!), and the potential buyer was placing 25% down.
He told me he might have been able to deal with the high FICO score for potential buyers if he had a Buick or Cadillac dealership, but he was pushing Chevys. Now he's pushing used cars only. He said GM might give him something for surrendering the Chevy franchise, but he wasn't expecting it anytime soon.
Since his transition to strictly used cars, my ex-Chevy dealer contact said the showroom traffic hadn't decreased a bit, and the repair and body shops were busy. People needed to keep their cars on the road, he explained.
Time to delist Ford GM and the other one and embrace a new age of one American car corporation that makes one car for poor people and one for rick people, and both will be made in Mexico with peso pride.
So apparently the Cerberus guys did not realize that they named the fund after a hound guarding the gates of hell. Or Styx or whatever. They just picked the name because it seemed like a cool classical allusion.
And then they told this anecdote to FT. Without realizing what it might reveal about the whole due diligence thing.
meme for the new decade ahead: no LBOs, no CDOs, no CDSs, no bank leverage above 5x1, no MEWs, no credit card balances more than 3x monthly income, no mgmt salaries above 10x avg. worker income, no government bailouts, no entities too big to fail, no lobbying of Congress, no conglomerate media, no to most everything.
"At that rate, the Depression starts at the close of business on December 15th.
El Cliffo"
Conjure says, "As Krugman pointed out yesterday, although no one wants it, the financial system--all of it--should be nationalized until the emergency is over."
OT--Counterpoint to Dan in last thread. (I have no dog in the fight, I just like to see different viewpoints.) This is from TBP blog.
No Great depression. Those who disagree with us argue that we will see a protracted period of deflation and that markets are headed much lower. Some even predict a modern version repetition of the Great Depression era. If they are right, the stock markets will be much lower and the only debt to own is treasury debt. If they are correct, there will be massive dislocation and many bankruptcies. If they are right, there are no safe assert classes other than direct obligations of the government.
We disagree with this Great Depression outlook for two reasons. During the 1930s the world turned to protectionism and the amount of global business contracted immensely. Today, governments and policy makers worldwide have committed themselves not to repeat that history.
Also, during the Depression the central bank contracted money and credit. Bank failures resulted in huge losses to depositors. Their money disappeared. Our Federal Reserve and federal agencies like the FDIC are committed to liquidity and preservation of the system. During the Depression the first large failure (Bank of the United States in December, 1930) intensified bad policy.
Today the failure of Lehman and subsequent global contagion jolted the Federal Reserve and the federal agency response into proactive results. In the Depression it took until 1933 and the election of Roosevelt to get a policy change. In 2008, it took only a few weeks after Lehman for the federal authorities to radically alter course in favor of massive and unprecedented stimulus.
Arent you worried about all this debt and future inflation? We are often asked this question. The answer is not now. For the immediate future the issue is narrowing credit spreads, offsetting the credit contraction, stimulating the economy and liquefying markets. Inflation and debt loads will be an issue down the road. Investors who focus on them now are acting too far in advance of their arrival.
In sum, the economic outlook seems bleak and foreboding. Stocks usually bottom when things appear to be only negative. Credit spreads are usually at their widest when that occurs. The sequence of restoration is usually credit markets first and then stocks. We are seeing the first signs of the credit contraction being unwound. Stocks will follow. In the yearend 2008, year-start 2009 market recovery, we believe this sequence will happen much faster than in previous cycles just as the post-Lehman contagion occurred with rapidity. Investors who are not in the markets may not have much opportunity to get in without chasing it higher. We believe gapping may be the key word to describe what lies ahead.
car for poor people: cardboard cut out vaguely resembling a "car" that people with jobs carry while running down the crumbling highway in "traffic jams" to employment
car for rich people: sedan chair
yes mp feels like last march only the powers that be may be outta tricks
in olympia washington, a friend who is a bank branch manager and his "in house" investments guy (the really big bank that got "consumed" by a really bigger bank) (sorry he needs deniability)
they told me that there will be significant hedge fund redemptions taking place end of december and it wont be pretty
his opinion ( not mine, im not smart enuf to know on my own) is that, in combination with other events, like a dismal retail season, could be the final nail in the coffi
What amazes me is that automobile stocks have been crushed, but homebuilders have had a recent rally of over 50%.
Personally, I like the earning prospects of automakers over that of homebuilders. It's all relative, of course. But for now at least, some new cars will need to be built and sold, and their price tags are not dropping by 30-50%.
Somebody explain how the market is rational in the case of the homebuilders? Most homebuilders don't even have forward PE ratios, let alone trailing ones! When will the market wake up to the fact that homebuilders need to be priced down massively (or in some cases, disappear forever).
Conjure says, "As Krugman pointed out yesterday, although no one wants it, the financial system--all of it--should be nationalized until the emergency is over."
Then we can move on to getting rid of that pesky constitution and all those individual rights that cause the authorities so much misery.
I fear you're right Elvis. Global depression == war.
Too many worthless assets... not enough wealth is a condition for strife. Plus political leaders will look for cover.
Pakistan is not looking good. First it's economy collapes, second the IMF forces tighter spending, ... and now it might be forced to crack down on its militants.
My biggest disappointment so far has been the persistence of traffic. In past recessions the upside has been better travel times. This time is different. Yeah, like we've never heard that before. The problem is we are still massively under supplied for infrastructure.
Chrysler will report that Leroy Smothers of Valdosta, GA test-drove a 2009 PT Cruiser, but he still has to discuss it with the missus before he commits to anything. But he did say that he really liked the re-designed cupholders.
I agree, destroy lobby groups ASAP and rip apart SIFMA and close down derivatives from Chicago. If America fails to act, global markets will provide solutions without America being involved, as we slip into third world status. We either become an honest nation or remain as a failed nation living with lies. It took Japan 13 years to come to grips with denial, and but as a result of their inability to rid themselves of corruption and casino mentality, they are failing again, just as they had a chance for recovery. America will have no future until we clean house!
"Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt. And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt; and the famine shall consume the land." Genesis 41
Ok, we will stick our neck out right up front: the seven lean years of Pharaoh's Dream are over.
We believe that the S&P500 will break out to a new all time high and set the stage for the next upward leg of the US stock market. We believe that the S&P500 can reach 2000 by the second year of the next presidential term (2010) or sooner. Furthermore, it is the tech sector that will lead this rally after years of languishing in the NASDAQ bubble aftermath.
Here's a quick summary of the Pharaoh's 14 years. We will date them April 1, 1993 to April 1, 2007.
First to the Fat years.
During the seven fat years from end of Q1 in 1993 to the end of the first quarter of 2000, the Standard & Poor's 500 average rose from about 450 to about 1500. It actually peaked at 1527.46 on March 24, 2000. Including dividends, the total return for the S&P500 was nearly 400% in those seven fat years.
course-correct writes:
Does anyone have a pointer to last month's sales data? Are these numbers better or worse month over month?
course-correct | 12.02.08 - 2:43 pm | #
The manufacturers release the numbers to the public via press releases on their media sites. Just go to those sites directly and sift through their old press releases.
Then we can move on to getting rid of that pesky constitution and all those individual rights that cause the authorities so much misery.
Hysterical. Living in a country where the executive asserted the legal right to torture, imprison and kill US citizens entirely on his own recognizance, no problemo.
But throwing Vikram Pandit out of a job? FASCISM!!!
"Somebody explain how the market is rational in the case of the homebuilders?"
I think the markets are under the delusion that the 2 year carryback income tax refunds are going to put enough money back into the homebuilders so they will survive. Too bad the markets don't understand off balance JV that will eat that new found money right back up. And terrible new home sales volume with negative margins into the foresseeeable future don't help either.
Rob Dawg writes:
My biggest disappointment so far has been the persistence of traffic. In past recessions the upside has been better travel times. This time is different. Yeah, like we've never heard that before. The problem is we are still massively under supplied for infrastructure.
Here in Atlanta a lot of people I work with who make long commutes have commented that traffic is a lot better recently... Good, but not good.
"car for poor people: cardboard cut out vaguely resembling a "car" that people with jobs carry while running down the crumbling highway in "traffic jams" to employment"
And it will have flat tires too, but it won't matter.
It would seem to be irrational to buy an asset when it is at an historical 'bubble' price but that is exactly what the Federales hedge fund is suggesting it might do with long-term treasuries.
The only rational conclusion is that the Federales are building a BLINGFENCE.
Cognizant that equity is the first loss tranche they are building a Treasury firewall or a BLINGFENCE.
When the synthetic CDO market pops like the ABS CDO did, the folks who can't 'paper over' their losses are going to get crushed. Liquidity dries up further other than for the granddaddy of liquidity providers, the Federales hedge fund, that will be sitting behind the BLINGFENCE doling out the bubble scrip derivatives (Treasuries).
To what end?
Amerika needs to drop and roll. Blackrock says 100 year treasuries and wow if you can imagine such a thing couldn't our present yield curve get compressed into an equivalent of today's 0-10 year? 60% of our debt is short-term ... how low could a 30 be pushed to in a 100-year curve? 40 year, 50 year,75 year... a brand new yield curve?
Drop and roll. Push enough debt out with an insatiable demand because OTC derivative destruction is a liquidity sponge and all of a sudden you have trillions of low-cost pesos.
Federales will have a lot of powder to wait for all that BLING to get back to a value that they can then mop up with.
Just a question of how much and for how long.
And unfortunately for the rest of us .... what price?
kadomount writes:
Here in Atlanta a lot of people I work with who make long commutes have commented that traffic is a lot better recently... Good, but not good.
Ya, but Rob was talking about traveling in general, you are talking about commuting. Less traffic during rush hour is probably due to increased unemployment.
Hysterical. Living in a country where the executive asserted the legal right to torture, imprison and kill US citizens entirely on his own recognizance, no problemo.
But throwing Vikram Pandit out of a job? FASCISM!!!
It's all part of the same basic phenomenon - a system using it's own failures to justify more power.
When failure becomes a virtue to be rewarded with more control you have a very predatory situation on your hands.
You have a system overrun with conceit, megalomania, and lack of mutual respect. I.E. a system devoid of the very things on which civilizations are built.
"The problem is we are still massively under supplied for infrastructure. - Rob Dawg"
Or are we massively oversupplied with cars for adequate infrastructure? - Elvis
Interesting alternative perspectives. There's several components i your question. Wealth equals mobility. That's a blanket but usually reliable claim. Second; "trend is destiny." We won't get more mobile or richer because we've decided that isn't where we want to go.
I predict that Chrysler sales will be off only 40%. My unit shipments of parts for the 5.7 liter Hemi engine have dropped only about 25% from last year, so they must still be selling a reasonable number of trucks..... unless they are all just piling up on dealer lots.
"Somebody explain how the market is rational in the case of the homebuilders?"
In the same vain, there should have been multiple more banks go BK as well. FDIC is helping banks manage (for now) through this time and I wouldn't be surprised if the banks are being lenient, literally, on limiting foreclosures/bankruptcy proceedings as part of the "soft landing" policy.
"Pakistan is not looking good. First it's economy collapes, second the IMF forces tighter spending"
I hope the guys in DC use their heads this time. If they can get Pakistan and India to exchange nukes, that solves a lot of the US job problem with a low cost (a couple of CIA guys and possibly one "anonymous" nuke)
Even better if they can drag China into it somehow by marking Chinese symbols on the shipping crate.
"Paulson is now giving financial advice to China...going there for a 2 day meeting"
Ahh.
Good-bye, Chinese economy.
Mission Accomplished!
"and I wouldn't be surprised if the banks are being lenient, literally, on limiting foreclosures/bankruptcy proceedings as part of the "soft landing" policy." GiezCubed
According to my relatives who work processing foreclosures, this is the case.
I heard the gist of the business plan and took my money and ran. They might be around, but it'll be lower...
a lot.
Meanwhile, my Chevy minivan continues to run but is slowly falling to pieces. I feel as though it's mine however, since one of my boys didn't realize that using a stick to write his name on the ice sheet on the hood would actually carve it into the hood itself.
--
"It's all part of the same basic phenomenon - a system using it's own failures to justify more power."
ac,
Gangistan! Get with the program CRers America consists of Gangistan (rulers) and Dopeland (the ruled). It would answer all your questions about the American economy and the econo-political system of recent years.
Wisdom lies in getting rid of ones illusions. Lord Acton
Here's the rub with requiring 25% and a FICO north of 720 as GMAC is doing. If you aren't selling any cars now, placing higher requirements on the rest of us isn't going to improve your sales.
Better to let the go out the door to anyone who can fog a mirror and repo later. At least you might get some down payment cash and a few months of payments.
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!
Cutting one's nose off to spite your face.
Nice business model.
As my dear father used to say decades ago when passing all the dealers in Northern NJ, "Who is going to buy all these cars?"
As my wife used to say 5-7 years ago: "Why don't they just build on placed orders?"
And as I used to say: "Get rid of the dealers. Why should I pay more when the dealer can just roll one off the line for me. I'll pay shipping ro pick up myself!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"
Car manufacturers......Let all three die, already!
Gave pocketknives to my twins a few years ago when they were 7. I walked out the day after Christmas to see them finishing their initials in the back of my Sequoia. Personalized.
It's Prosperity that will put The Giant Tent Cities @ Walmart..Low prices help us all, job or no job, they have low prices....That has been imprinted on our brain for 8 years or 12 years...
Apologies if already posted: This auto industry bailout is beginning to smell alot like the Paulson $700 billion package.
Upon first attempt, public outrage is high and political will is strong to oppose. Afterward, other news enters the headlines, the package is "improved for the taxpayers", the public is not as focused in their opposition, the politicians get their goodies and it slides through. Mission Accomplished.
Upon first attempt, public outrage is high and political will is strong to oppose. Afterward, other news enters the headlines, the package is "improved for the taxpayers", the public is not as focused in their opposition, the politicians get their goodies and it slides through. Mission Accomplished.
"Gave pocketknives to my twins a few years ago when they were 7. I walked out the day after Christmas to see them finishing their initials in the back of my Sequoia. Personalized.
BelieverJeff"
At least, they carved them into a tree. It would have been bad if it were your car.
I know this was blogged earlier, but some have referred back to it.
Just what is anyone thinking when they propse 100-year bonds?
Crikey, what is left? 200-year notes?
This is just getting ridiculous. Jas is right. Duhmerikah, a bunch of dopes.
No wonder I am not part of any of these high-faluttin groups. If I was in a meeting and someone proposed such a laughable idea, I would just laugh in his/her face.
Bottom line......
STOP SPENDING MONEY YOU DON'T HAVE,
YOU MORONS!
Heck, with all we owe, have entitled, used to bailout this economy, and accumulate annually through deficits, it is game over. At this point it is just smoke and mirrors and some hollerin'!!!!!
Ford has actually been making some good cars lately. GM is still terrible with awful interiors, although the Chevrolet Malibu is serviceable.
I don't know anyone who owns a Chrysler so I am not sure they make cars anymore. Jeep (which are actually amazing vehicles for off roading) is the only valuable brand left at Chrysler.
In America
Acton took a great interest in America, considering its Federal structure the perfect guarantor of individual liberties. During the American Civil War, his sympathies lay entirely with the Confederacy, for their defense of States' Rights against a centralized government that, by all historical precedent, would inevitably turn tyrannical. His notes to Gladstone on the subject helped sway many in the British government to sympathize with the South. After the South's surrender, he wrote to Robert E. Lee that "I mourn for the stake which was lost at Richmond more deeply than I rejoice over that which was saved at Waterloo."
Just what is anyone thinking when they propse 100-year bonds?
The same thing they were thinking when they proposed 40-year and 50-year mortgages.
They're thinking ponzi finance.
In effect building an economy on promises that can never be kept and putting all the nation's effort in to coming up with creative ways to hide the fact.
Who attached a rocket booster to the markets while I wasn't watching?
Why the failure of the auto industry of course. Set off the stock market like a firecracker!
Time to buy the Big Three cause Uncle Sam gonna make em whole which means their equity (or lack thereof) and assets will be backed by the almighty American taxpayer. Which means you too can get in on the mark to model action. But act fast!
So basically the American Dream at its minimum means 1 car and 1 house for each American family. At this rate Uncle Sam will be providing that plus insurance and free checking for all good citizens.
Who needs health care when you can all the above plus a plush pony!
ac writes:
Just what is anyone thinking when they propse 100-year bonds?
The same thing they were thinking when they proposed 40-year and 50-year mortgages.
They're thinking ponzi finance.
In effect building an economy on promises that can never be kept and putting all the nation's effort in to coming up with creative ways to hide the fact.
ac | 12.02.08 - 3:31 pm | #
Interesting you should mention these as i hear Mrs. Bair mention these last week as a way to bail out the FBs.
They will do everything
EXCEPT THE ONE NECESSARY...
Lower the amount owed.
Heck, go to any mortgage calculator on line and see the difference between a 30, 40, and 50-yr. mortgage payment.
Bankers of old, whatever else we may say, knew that 30 was the max in terms of life and payments. Going any further out, i.e. 40 or 50, even the 100 yr. in Japan saves you dollars per month.
The amortization just doesn't make any sense beyond 30 for a buyer.
Heck, anything beyond 20 doesn't really make sense to me, but that is just me!
Those GM leap puts sure look ripe for the selling. Basically, a $0.60/share bet that Congress will "bridge" them to the future (the future defined as "after the next election"). Hell, even AIG and FNM are trading above that level, and we already know they're bankrupt.
I knew this guy had a nice home, mostly paid for, in a decent inner city neighborhood. Then went off the Rush Limbaugh deep end, needed huge square footage on a multi-acre spread in the hinterlands. He and his wife were both making the 120 mile round trip commutes in separate cars everyday while the young children stayed in daycare. After a while he quit his modest but stable job downtown to be a car salesman in said hinterlands. I'm guessing they're experiencing or have experienced some financial distress.
Well we can attempt to keep the Ponzi scheme going for as long as possible and hope for some miracle to bail us it. It's at least possible. Jim Rogers has argued that the UK got bailed out in the 1970s by their miracle oil find.
The problem is that a) Ponzi finance schemes become more fragile the longer they continue b) the collapse at the end gets bigger and bigger the longer it goes on.
Basically you continually get closer and closer to the edge of the cliff and the cliff gets higher and higher.
Reason suggests that you jump off the cliff while you can still survive the fall.
Randy, you must be speaking of my SIL and BIL. The two who moved to Temecula. She drives about 110 miles roundtrip daily on the 15, heading north. He stays at home on perm. disability. Nice gig, he's got. She earns, he spends.
Before this buy, 2 BKs and 1 VERY short sale (maybe foreclosure)!
Nice economic model and we ponder the instability of it all.
As my wife used to say 5-7 years ago: "Why don't they just build on placed orders?"
And as I used to say: "Get rid of the dealers. Why should I pay more when the dealer can just roll one off the line for me. I'll pay shipping ro pick up myself!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"
There is no reason you couldn't walk into a 'showroom' of samples - test drive a vehicle, special order it and have it shipped to your home almost anywhere in the US in about five working days.
Showroom would be that - only samples to test drive - nothing to buy there except maybe trade ins.
Seriously.
You could even forgo the showroom if you didn't want a test drive first - most wouldn't do that (I sure wouldn't).
Google 'JIT' 'Lean Supply Chain' 'Mixed Model Assembly' 'make to order' and you'll know more than the auto execs on how to execute a modern mfg operation.
93 Yen per dollar?
We're not diving... we're at 600ft down under depth charge attack!
but as a gift for opening the account they were offering a cute stuffed animal . . a pony!
ROTFLMAO
Every dealer lot I've seen recently is jammed to capacity and extra storage space is being temporarily rented in the parking lots of failed stores.
Toyota is filing up the ports. Heck, they're even parking the 18-wheelers that deliver the trucks at the Port of Long Beach. (Yes... mass driver layoffs.)
That's strange. Most of the dealer lots I've seen were empty with a "For Lease" sign on the window.
Broward Horne
ROTFL
There are 3 empty car lots in our area. The Honda, Toyota, Saturn, Chevy, Ford, BMW, Nissan, Kia, and Mercedes are still open. Lost the Pontiac (ok, so what), Lincoln, and Hyundai merged into the Kia dealer. There might be a 4th empty (GMC), but its full of chevy trucks now...
Every dealer lot I've seen recently is jammed to capacity.
That's strange. Most of the dealer lots I've seen were empty with a "For Lease" sign on the window.
Broward Horne
Good one. There are those, too.
The funniest one I've seen is on my local "auto row" where 6 or 7 lots in a row are set up. The last (most recent) one was going to be a Saturn dealer. The lot has been graded and the forms for the footings are in place . . . and have been in place for over two months . . . and are rotting in the weather.
Somehow I got the impression they won't really be building anything there for a while.
(Reuters) - The U.S. government should provide a federal guaranty to meet American International Group Inc's (AIG.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) counterparty collateral requirements, the insurer's former Chief Executive Maurice Greenberg said.
Will someone please shoot "Hank" and ease our pain?
Anonymous writes:
Going to get back half of yesterday's losses. If we get back at least the other half tomorrow I will stop trading the short side of this market.
Anonymous | 12.02.08 - 3:43 pm
You obviously scared the bejeebus out of the PPT. Nothing but downward momentum since your ultimatum.
The only people I know who bought Chrysler were black. Don't know why. Just like only white guys buy F150's and Latino men buy white step-vans here. There is a whole social/caste thing with cars thats interesting.
Just got back from picking up my dog at the vet. It was $320 for the visit and grooming. Business was dead at both places. Parked next to an auto parts place that does a lot of deliveries. Looked like all their trucks were in.
From the number of brake lights, front lights, and squealing brakes I have run across lately; no one is doing maintenance.
--
Going to College & Grad School Looks Like a Disaster
By Nan Mooney, AlterNet
Posted on December 2, 2008, Printed on December 2, 2008
With the job market tanking, have you been thinking that now is the perfect time to go to school, or go back to school, to shore up those job skills and make sure you have an edge in the market?
The main function of modern education is to breed dopes, via massive propaganda, that make good economic slaves (inhabitants of Dopeland) to the capitalist rulers (inhabitants of Gangistan). Most of the wealthiest people in the world did not complete college, or got a cheap college degree!
America consists of Gangistan (rulers) and Dopeland (the ruled). It would answer all your questions about the American economy and the econo-political system of recent years. India consists of Greater Gangistan and Greater Dopeland!
America as it exists in the minds of Americans and many outsiders is an illusion; it squarely consists of ruling economic and political Gangs and "law abiding" and well-trained dopes that obey and serve the gangs.
If I had to pinpoint one severe error at GM, it would be the mismatch between perceived market demands and lengthy product development timeframes.
It takes them an age to put a new product on the street, so today they're positioned for the US market of, say, 2003.
That goes for expansion of the dealer network, floorplans, plant improvements, everything.
As to the quality of the products themselves, the company is perfectly capable of designing and delivering spectacularly fine cars. But they have found the market far more responsive to marginal, insubstantial changes, and have responded accordingly.
We're basically getting the cars we asked for, a few years late.
Looks like a great investment. Glad it's being made on my behalf by Congress.
Sorry to hear Tanta passed away.
Will Chrysler report any sales?
Does Chrysler have sales to report?
PCA, a river of tears were shed over the last 48 hours.
Will Chrysler report any sales?
Did they have any, you mean?
Gary,
I know. I hadn't offered my sympathies.
Let's see...
Ford is off 31%
GM is off 41%
I predict Chrysler will be off 51%
my precious!
Charlie, I think you may have a future in technical analysis!
dryfly writes:
Will Chrysler report any sales?
Does Chrysler have sales to report?
Report is they were required to restock an even dozen due to State lemon laws
Would you buy a car from a company everyone says is doomed?
Didn't GM announce not once but twice they were raising prices on their cars. LOL!!!
USD/JPY 93.03
10-year yield 2.666%
30-year yield 3.194%
And the market hasn't even opened yet
Isn't Chrysler just a hedge fund that dabbles in manufacturing?
Our brief rally today doesn't seem to have much conviction behind it...
Pets.com == Chrysler.auto
Now,
Cerberus Capital Management is the smart money, right?
It turns out people don't need to buy that many new cars. Most cars actually last beyond their financing periods.
Who really needs a new car now? Someone whose lease is expiring? Someone whose car was totaled?
It seems almost everyone is bankrupt, who knew?
MEW and poorly assesed credit can only support the sale of overpriced cr*p for so long. Wages have to inflate.
PCA, just commiserating with you.
As for Chrysler . . . is it possible to post negative revenue?
Of all the companies not deserving of gov't capital, Chrysler wins first place... they were intentionally bled of assets and loaded with debt by hedge-fund looting. More than the rest, to give them capital is to bail out the a failed financial business model of asset-stripping and debt-loading under the cover of "business optimization". BK in this case to make the debtholders eat their stupidity is the only rational course of action.
Are they still in business?
CONJURE'S GLOBAL DEPRESSION CLOCK
The time is--
11:59:47
Pets.com == Chrysler.auto
Rob Dawg
Sounds like a great promotion:
Buy a dog, get a free car!
Yet wages shall not inflate.
Not no way, not no how.
Wage inflation is the only "bad" inflation in the opinion of the powers that be. Goes hand-in-glove with international wage competition.
As long as there is a guy in Singapore, Bangladesh, or Guatemala who is willing to turn a wrench for less, you have no bargaining power.
Will new industry, or perhaps "green" tech be any different? Maybe. But even there, only jobs that must be performed "on-site" can avoid out-sourcing or relocation.
Only 49 days before Paulson is out of office. Goldman at $60.00 and going to lose their golden parachute soon. My guess, falls to $5.00 per share and their is a merger. I wonder if Hanks personal wealth of 900,000,000.00 will afford him the opportunity to purchase the company outright.
Looks like a great investment. Glad it's being made on my behalf by Congress.
It's a bit like being ordered to get a prostate exam because it's in your best interest isn't it?
Rob Dawg writes:
Pets.com == Chrysler.auto
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.02.08 - 2:32 pm | #
Ceberus = CMGI
Ceberus is the CMGI of today....gobbling up bad companies and putting them together
Bail out one auto maker-get two free.
Pets.com == Chrysler.auto
Pets.com == New Global Economy
Does anyone have a pointer to last month's sales data? Are these numbers better or worse month over month?
Where's our bottom calling spammer? I need to know when to load up on calls 20 minutes ago.
mp writes:
CONJURE'S GLOBAL DEPRESSION CLOCK
The time is--
11:59:47
mp | 12.02.08 - 2:39 pm |
In that case, time's up...
Hey, mp has a new clock! (whose ticking is sure to keep me up at night...)
(But is it like the Doomsday Clock
of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which can run backwards if things improve?)
"CONJURE'S GLOBAL DEPRESSION CLOCK
The time is--
11:59:47
mp"
13 seconds. What happens in a global depression anyway? My guess is lots of war.
Cerberus Capital Management is the smart money
Perhaps the red flag should have been that they employ Dan Quayle for his business acumen.
The Police - One Car demo (rare audio)
YouTube - The Police - One World demo (rare audio)
One car is enough, for all of us
One car is enough, for all of us
It's a subject we rarely mention
But when we do we have this little invention
By pretending they're a different world from me
I shelve my responsibility
One car is enough, for all of us
One car is enough, for all of us
Cerberus = Dumb and Dumber
CONJURE'S GLOBAL DEPRESSION CLOCK
11:59:47
Its current pace is one second closer to midnight every trading day. At that rate, the Depression starts at the close of business on December 15th.
The New American Math:
Do Not Make Anything = Prosperity
"At that rate, the Depression starts at the close of business on December 15th.
El Cliffo"
Just imagine how depressed people will eventually get after all the holiday eggnog is gone.
Another data point or two, FWIW...
Had the chance last week to speak with two car dealers that I made TV commercials for back in the day.
The one GM dealer told me GMAC wasn't accepting any credit apps except those with a FICO of 700 or better, and with 25% down. He told me for the common folk needing a car, the local banks were going back to the "character" thing rather than FICO scores. They'd look at your track record of paying loans and bills off -- quite a novel idea.
The other GM dealer I talked to had just given up his new car franchises. (I heard from other friends later he had d@%n near pledged everything into the dealerships, and the financial situation he was in was ugly.) He told me GMAC wasn't accepting his credit apps unless the FICO was 720(!), and the potential buyer was placing 25% down.
He told me he might have been able to deal with the high FICO score for potential buyers if he had a Buick or Cadillac dealership, but he was pushing Chevys. Now he's pushing used cars only. He said GM might give him something for surrendering the Chevy franchise, but he wasn't expecting it anytime soon.
Since his transition to strictly used cars, my ex-Chevy dealer contact said the showroom traffic hadn't decreased a bit, and the repair and body shops were busy. People needed to keep their cars on the road, he explained.
Have a nice day, all.
cam writes:
The New American Math:
Do Not Make Anything = Prosperity
cam | 12.02.08 - 2:46 pm | #
Just join Amway Global!
Time to delist Ford GM and the other one and embrace a new age of one American car corporation that makes one car for poor people and one for rick people, and both will be made in Mexico with peso pride.
mp-
isnt that like 3 clicks forward from last night?
DCRogers,
Yes, an event driven timepiece.
--
Can someone enlighten me on CR's latest stance on the nature of the current recession? Thanks.
Jas
So apparently the Cerberus guys did not realize that they named the fund after a hound guarding the gates of hell. Or Styx or whatever. They just picked the name because it seemed like a cool classical allusion.
And then they told this anecdote to FT. Without realizing what it might reveal about the whole due diligence thing.
meme for the new decade ahead: no LBOs, no CDOs, no CDSs, no bank leverage above 5x1, no MEWs, no credit card balances more than 3x monthly income, no mgmt salaries above 10x avg. worker income, no government bailouts, no entities too big to fail, no lobbying of Congress, no conglomerate media, no to most everything.
just say no....
"At that rate, the Depression starts at the close of business on December 15th.
El Cliffo"
Conjure says, "As Krugman pointed out yesterday, although no one wants it, the financial system--all of it--should be nationalized until the emergency is over."
"This afternoon would be nice."
"Have a nice day."
OT--Counterpoint to Dan in last thread. (I have no dog in the fight, I just like to see different viewpoints.) This is from TBP blog.
No Great depression. Those who disagree with us argue that we will see a protracted period of deflation and that markets are headed much lower. Some even predict a modern version repetition of the Great Depression era. If they are right, the stock markets will be much lower and the only debt to own is treasury debt. If they are correct, there will be massive dislocation and many bankruptcies. If they are right, there are no safe assert classes other than direct obligations of the government.
We disagree with this Great Depression outlook for two reasons. During the 1930s the world turned to protectionism and the amount of global business contracted immensely. Today, governments and policy makers worldwide have committed themselves not to repeat that history.
Also, during the Depression the central bank contracted money and credit. Bank failures resulted in huge losses to depositors. Their money disappeared. Our Federal Reserve and federal agencies like the FDIC are committed to liquidity and preservation of the system. During the Depression the first large failure (Bank of the United States in December, 1930) intensified bad policy.
Today the failure of Lehman and subsequent global contagion jolted the Federal Reserve and the federal agency response into proactive results. In the Depression it took until 1933 and the election of Roosevelt to get a policy change. In 2008, it took only a few weeks after Lehman for the federal authorities to radically alter course in favor of massive and unprecedented stimulus.
Arent you worried about all this debt and future inflation? We are often asked this question. The answer is not now. For the immediate future the issue is narrowing credit spreads, offsetting the credit contraction, stimulating the economy and liquefying markets. Inflation and debt loads will be an issue down the road. Investors who focus on them now are acting too far in advance of their arrival.
In sum, the economic outlook seems bleak and foreboding. Stocks usually bottom when things appear to be only negative. Credit spreads are usually at their widest when that occurs. The sequence of restoration is usually credit markets first and then stocks. We are seeing the first signs of the credit contraction being unwound. Stocks will follow. In the yearend 2008, year-start 2009 market recovery, we believe this sequence will happen much faster than in previous cycles just as the post-Lehman contagion occurred with rapidity. Investors who are not in the markets may not have much opportunity to get in without chasing it higher. We believe gapping may be the key word to describe what lies ahead.
-David Kotok, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer
How big? How low? How now brown cow? | The Big Picture
Its current pace is one second closer to midnight every trading day. At that rate, the Depression starts at the close of business on December 15th.
Which is the exact day some clown on CNBC expects a 40% rally to start:
Charts Predict: Dow 40% Rally to Start on Dec. 15 - CNBC
I'm going with the Conjure Bag.
I see no reason why the Dow wont end down 2 0r 3 hundred pts
The New American Math:
Do Not Make Anything = Prosperity
As long as we can borrow our stuff from other countries and the future why build?
Stop congressional lobbying, and they might work for us in DC.....Naw.
car for poor people: cardboard cut out vaguely resembling a "car" that people with jobs carry while running down the crumbling highway in "traffic jams" to employment
car for rich people: sedan chair
This is off topic, yet somehow. . . not. . .
GF cashed a clients check at a Wells Fargo branch here in LA yesterday. Of course, they tried to get her to open an account.
She declined, but as a gift for opening the account they were offering a cute stuffed animal . . a pony!
Someone there has a sense of humor.
FWIW, the brach is at Olympic and Perdue in L.A. FREE PONIES! for real....
mp,
If we nationalize a corrupt failed system, how would that help turn things around?
11:59:47
mp | 12.02.08 - 2:39 pm | #
yes mp feels like last march only the powers that be may be outta tricks
in olympia washington, a friend who is a bank branch manager and his "in house" investments guy (the really big bank that got "consumed" by a really bigger bank) (sorry he needs deniability)
they told me that there will be significant hedge fund redemptions taking place end of december and it wont be pretty
his opinion ( not mine, im not smart enuf to know on my own) is that, in combination with other events, like a dismal retail season, could be the final nail in the coffi
Stretching to make this on-topic...
What amazes me is that automobile stocks have been crushed, but homebuilders have had a recent rally of over 50%.
Personally, I like the earning prospects of automakers over that of homebuilders. It's all relative, of course. But for now at least, some new cars will need to be built and sold, and their price tags are not dropping by 30-50%.
Somebody explain how the market is rational in the case of the homebuilders? Most homebuilders don't even have forward PE ratios, let alone trailing ones! When will the market wake up to the fact that homebuilders need to be priced down massively (or in some cases, disappear forever).
We're all Pets.com now.
Conjure says, "As Krugman pointed out yesterday, although no one wants it, the financial system--all of it--should be nationalized until the emergency is over."
Then we can move on to getting rid of that pesky constitution and all those individual rights that cause the authorities so much misery.
"Our Federal Reserve and federal agencies like the FDIC are committed to liquidity and preservation of the system."--Kotok via Dave
Conjure says, "So where is it?"
"Show me the #*&^ing liquidity!"
"Have a nice day."
Paulson is now giving financial advice to China...going there for a 2 day meeting
parade continues --
Bullard: Risk of deflation is pretty low
Going to stuff the market goose with yen until we get pate...
PTDBD writes:
Paulson is now giving financial advice to China...going there for a 2 day meeting
PTDBD | 12.02.08 - 2:56 pm | #
I sure hope someone takes away his passport!
I fear you're right Elvis. Global depression == war.
Too many worthless assets... not enough wealth is a condition for strife. Plus political leaders will look for cover.
Pakistan is not looking good. First it's economy collapes, second the IMF forces tighter spending, ... and now it might be forced to crack down on its militants.
Not good times.
My biggest disappointment so far has been the persistence of traffic. In past recessions the upside has been better travel times. This time is different. Yeah, like we've never heard that before. The problem is we are still massively under supplied for infrastructure.
Will Chrysler report any sales?
Chrysler will report that Leroy Smothers of Valdosta, GA test-drove a 2009 PT Cruiser, but he still has to discuss it with the missus before he commits to anything. But he did say that he really liked the re-designed cupholders.
I agree, destroy lobby groups ASAP and rip apart SIFMA and close down derivatives from Chicago. If America fails to act, global markets will provide solutions without America being involved, as we slip into third world status. We either become an honest nation or remain as a failed nation living with lies. It took Japan 13 years to come to grips with denial, and but as a result of their inability to rid themselves of corruption and casino mentality, they are failing again, just as they had a chance for recovery. America will have no future until we clean house!
"The problem is we are still massively under supplied for infrastructure.
Rob Dawg"
Or are we massively oversupplied with cars for adequate infrastructure?
"Show me the #*&^ing liquidity!"
Truer words were never spoken.
I'd add; "Solvent? I'll show you solvent you #*&^ing
*&^ole!"
A bunch of little Chinese guys holding Paulson in a headlock demanding their money back.
Allen C , I left you an answer in the previous thread.
HaloScan.com - Comments
But mom - everyone is doing it!
--
"David Kotok, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer"
A certifiable dope and a BSer.
Need proof?
Cumberland Advisors
Cumberland Advisors - Investment Money Managers
Pharaoh's Dream
May 12, 2007
"Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt. And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt; and the famine shall consume the land." Genesis 41
Ok, we will stick our neck out right up front: the seven lean years of Pharaoh's Dream are over.
We believe that the S&P500 will break out to a new all time high and set the stage for the next upward leg of the US stock market. We believe that the S&P500 can reach 2000 by the second year of the next presidential term (2010) or sooner. Furthermore, it is the tech sector that will lead this rally after years of languishing in the NASDAQ bubble aftermath.
Here's a quick summary of the Pharaoh's 14 years. We will date them April 1, 1993 to April 1, 2007.
First to the Fat years.
During the seven fat years from end of Q1 in 1993 to the end of the first quarter of 2000, the Standard & Poor's 500 average rose from about 450 to about 1500. It actually peaked at 1527.46 on March 24, 2000. Including dividends, the total return for the S&P500 was nearly 400% in those seven fat years.
Jas
"The problem is we are still massively under supplied for infrastructure.
Rob Dawg"
Or are we massively oversupplied with cars for adequate infrastructure?
Well we did have the infrastructure to build millions of houses and commercial buildings we didn't need.
We can't be that undersupplied.
course-correct writes:
Does anyone have a pointer to last month's sales data? Are these numbers better or worse month over month?
course-correct | 12.02.08 - 2:43 pm | #
The manufacturers release the numbers to the public via press releases on their media sites. Just go to those sites directly and sift through their old press releases.
media.ford.com
media.gm.com/us
etc.
I wonder if car companies had an ultrashort fund if they would get 50% rallies like the homebuilders.
Then we can move on to getting rid of that pesky constitution and all those individual rights that cause the authorities so much misery.
Hysterical. Living in a country where the executive asserted the legal right to torture, imprison and kill US citizens entirely on his own recognizance, no problemo.
But throwing Vikram Pandit out of a job? FASCISM!!!
"Somebody explain how the market is rational in the case of the homebuilders?"
I think the markets are under the delusion that the 2 year carryback income tax refunds are going to put enough money back into the homebuilders so they will survive. Too bad the markets don't understand off balance JV that will eat that new found money right back up. And terrible new home sales volume with negative margins into the foresseeeable future don't help either.
I wonder if the "small 3's" plan will accomodate a 10mm car market instead of 16mm? I doubt it.
Cerberus = Dumb and Dumber
crispy&cole | Homepage | 12.02.08 - 2:46 pm | #
No, it has THREE heads. Ergo:
Cerberus = Dumb and Dumber and Dumbest.
Rob Dawg writes:
My biggest disappointment so far has been the persistence of traffic. In past recessions the upside has been better travel times. This time is different. Yeah, like we've never heard that before. The problem is we are still massively under supplied for infrastructure.
Here in Atlanta a lot of people I work with who make long commutes have commented that traffic is a lot better recently... Good, but not good.
"car for poor people: cardboard cut out vaguely resembling a "car" that people with jobs carry while running down the crumbling highway in "traffic jams" to employment"
And it will have flat tires too, but it won't matter.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Blingfence
It would seem to be irrational to buy an asset when it is at an historical 'bubble' price but that is exactly what the Federales hedge fund is suggesting it might do with long-term treasuries.
The only rational conclusion is that the Federales are building a BLINGFENCE.
Cognizant that equity is the first loss tranche they are building a Treasury firewall or a BLINGFENCE.
When the synthetic CDO market pops like the ABS CDO did, the folks who can't 'paper over' their losses are going to get crushed. Liquidity dries up further other than for the granddaddy of liquidity providers, the Federales hedge fund, that will be sitting behind the BLINGFENCE doling out the bubble scrip derivatives (Treasuries).
To what end?
Amerika needs to drop and roll. Blackrock says 100 year treasuries and wow if you can imagine such a thing couldn't our present yield curve get compressed into an equivalent of today's 0-10 year? 60% of our debt is short-term ... how low could a 30 be pushed to in a 100-year curve? 40 year, 50 year,75 year... a brand new yield curve?
Drop and roll. Push enough debt out with an insatiable demand because OTC derivative destruction is a liquidity sponge and all of a sudden you have trillions of low-cost pesos.
Federales will have a lot of powder to wait for all that BLING to get back to a value that they can then mop up with.
Just a question of how much and for how long.
And unfortunately for the rest of us .... what price?
kadomount writes:
Here in Atlanta a lot of people I work with who make long commutes have commented that traffic is a lot better recently... Good, but not good.
Ya, but Rob was talking about traveling in general, you are talking about commuting. Less traffic during rush hour is probably due to increased unemployment.
I wonder if car companies had an ultrashort fund if they would get 50% rallies like the homebuilders.
I don't believe there is an ultrashort of the homebuilders (SRS is shorting commercial real estate via REITs).
I had advocated for a ultra short of California earlier this year but we never got one of those either.
Chrysler down 47%
It's 3pm... do you know where your money is?
And the market loves the failure of autos cause failure = taxpayer bailout = pumping up the stock values mark to model (e.g. Citi, etc).
God Bless American Socialism!
But does Toyota get a piece o' Uncle Sam's nest egg too? Or just his pocket lint?
Hysterical. Living in a country where the executive asserted the legal right to torture, imprison and kill US citizens entirely on his own recognizance, no problemo.
But throwing Vikram Pandit out of a job? FASCISM!!!
It's all part of the same basic phenomenon - a system using it's own failures to justify more power.
When failure becomes a virtue to be rewarded with more control you have a very predatory situation on your hands.
You have a system overrun with conceit, megalomania, and lack of mutual respect. I.E. a system devoid of the very things on which civilizations are built.
And Kia off 37%
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Kia-Motors-US-November-sales/story.aspx?guid={5D82630F-A118-4E15-910C-E0ABA5C49E05}
"The problem is we are still massively under supplied for infrastructure. - Rob Dawg"
Or are we massively oversupplied with cars for adequate infrastructure? - Elvis
Interesting alternative perspectives. There's several components i your question. Wealth equals mobility. That's a blanket but usually reliable claim. Second; "trend is destiny." We won't get more mobile or richer because we've decided that isn't where we want to go.
I predict that Chrysler sales will be off only 40%. My unit shipments of parts for the 5.7 liter Hemi engine have dropped only about 25% from last year, so they must still be selling a reasonable number of trucks..... unless they are all just piling up on dealer lots.
"Somebody explain how the market is rational in the case of the homebuilders?"
In the same vain, there should have been multiple more banks go BK as well. FDIC is helping banks manage (for now) through this time and I wouldn't be surprised if the banks are being lenient, literally, on limiting foreclosures/bankruptcy proceedings as part of the "soft landing" policy.
"Pakistan is not looking good. First it's economy collapes, second the IMF forces tighter spending"
I hope the guys in DC use their heads this time. If they can get Pakistan and India to exchange nukes, that solves a lot of the US job problem with a low cost (a couple of CIA guys and possibly one "anonymous" nuke)
Even better if they can drag China into it somehow by marking Chinese symbols on the shipping crate.
"Paulson is now giving financial advice to China...going there for a 2 day meeting"
Ahh.
Good-bye, Chinese economy.
Mission Accomplished!
Comrade Dazed and Amused,
Go with "just piling up on dealer lots."
Every dealer lot I've seen recently is jammed to capacity and extra storage space is being temporarily rented in the parking lots of failed stores.
German auto sales details: http://mediacontent.cg.publicus.com/pdf/CG392380122.PDF
"off only 40%" Very generous and optimistic of you.
Quote of the day "Yahoo and Ford should merge and then we would be able to search for junk and find it very easily."
Crispy - Too bad the three heads of Cerberus are Moe, Larry, and Curly Joe. (The original Curly refused the role out of retained honor)
PTDBD -
Advice? Paulson will be on his knees in China, and if he's "giving" anything it cannot be described on a family blog.
@Giez: LOL.
"and I wouldn't be surprised if the banks are being lenient, literally, on limiting foreclosures/bankruptcy proceedings as part of the "soft landing" policy." GiezCubed
According to my relatives who work processing foreclosures, this is the case.
And I just sold Ford for some profit.
I heard the gist of the business plan and took my money and ran. They might be around, but it'll be lower...
a lot.
Meanwhile, my Chevy minivan continues to run but is slowly falling to pieces. I feel as though it's mine however, since one of my boys didn't realize that using a stick to write his name on the ice sheet on the hood would actually carve it into the hood itself.
It's kind of personalized now.
--
"It's all part of the same basic phenomenon - a system using it's own failures to justify more power."
ac,
Gangistan! Get with the program CRers America consists of Gangistan (rulers) and Dopeland (the ruled). It would answer all your questions about the American economy and the econo-political system of recent years.
Wisdom lies in getting rid of ones illusions. Lord Acton
Dopeland is filled with illusions.
Jas
Lord Acton--oh dear!
Here's the rub with requiring 25% and a FICO north of 720 as GMAC is doing. If you aren't selling any cars now, placing higher requirements on the rest of us isn't going to improve your sales.
Better to let the go out the door to anyone who can fog a mirror and repo later. At least you might get some down payment cash and a few months of payments.
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!
Cutting one's nose off to spite your face.
Nice business model.
As my dear father used to say decades ago when passing all the dealers in Northern NJ, "Who is going to buy all these cars?"
As my wife used to say 5-7 years ago: "Why don't they just build on placed orders?"
And as I used to say: "Get rid of the dealers. Why should I pay more when the dealer can just roll one off the line for me. I'll pay shipping ro pick up myself!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"
Car manufacturers......Let all three die, already!
CNNMoney is reporting Chrysler sales drop 47%. No story.
Every dealer lot I've seen recently is jammed to capacity
That's strange. Most of the dealer lots I've seen were empty with a "For Lease" sign on the window.
Dopeland is filled with illusions. --Jas
Sounds very CSC-esque. Snoop Dogg must be the new Harry Houdini.
Which Lord Acton, Jas?
Not Harold, surely.
JBR writes:
Wells Fargo were offering a cute stuffed animal . . a pony!
WFB is offering ponies here in Portland too. And the ponies are really cute. But best of all...their ponies are Made in China.
Nice thing about Americans....no sense of irony...all accidental.
Sorry about that...s0mebody got it down 10 minutes ago...
Homedad,
Gave pocketknives to my twins a few years ago when they were 7. I walked out the day after Christmas to see them finishing their initials in the back of my Sequoia. Personalized.
It's Prosperity that will put The Giant Tent Cities @ Walmart..Low prices help us all, job or no job, they have low prices....That has been imprinted on our brain for 8 years or 12 years...
"The problem is we are still massively under supplied for infrastructure. - Rob Dawg"
Or are we massively oversupplied with cars for adequate infrastructure? - Elvis
I think another way of looking at it is that the consumer has lost the buying power and credibility needed make use of the existing infrastructure.
We've shown that we're not responsible enough to have nice things like cars and houses and strip malls so the infrastructure becomes moot.
One of those weird days of GS running against the trend again (-6%). Did they get somee news before the open (any minute)?
Apologies if already posted: This auto industry bailout is beginning to smell alot like the Paulson $700 billion package.
Upon first attempt, public outrage is high and political will is strong to oppose. Afterward, other news enters the headlines, the package is "improved for the taxpayers", the public is not as focused in their opposition, the politicians get their goodies and it slides through. Mission Accomplished.
1 currency soon [yogi] | 12.02.08 - 3:20 pm | #
In tech RIMM has been the same way...
will we see a repeat of last months suck fest in congress??
http://hobochili.org/chili/?p=112
Upon first attempt, public outrage is high and political will is strong to oppose. Afterward, other news enters the headlines, the package is "improved for the taxpayers", the public is not as focused in their opposition, the politicians get their goodies and it slides through. Mission Accomplished.
And this surprises you, in what way?
Any guesses on how much the JPY/USD gets jammed up at the close?
Chrysler sales have gone into cardiac arrest. Comparisons to 2007 sales are "irrelevant":
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Chrysler-LLC-Reports-November-2008/story.aspx?guid={4F993116-1FAC-4D60-B82D-550FC3FE64F2}
"Gave pocketknives to my twins a few years ago when they were 7. I walked out the day after Christmas to see them finishing their initials in the back of my Sequoia. Personalized.
BelieverJeff"
At least, they carved them into a tree. It would have been bad if it were your car.
@ 1 currency soon [yogi] |
There was an unfavorable article in the WSJ re GS
I know this was blogged earlier, but some have referred back to it.
Just what is anyone thinking when they propse 100-year bonds?
Crikey, what is left? 200-year notes?
This is just getting ridiculous. Jas is right. Duhmerikah, a bunch of dopes.
No wonder I am not part of any of these high-faluttin groups. If I was in a meeting and someone proposed such a laughable idea, I would just laugh in his/her face.
Bottom line......
STOP SPENDING MONEY YOU DON'T HAVE,
YOU MORONS!
Heck, with all we owe, have entitled, used to bailout this economy, and accumulate annually through deficits, it is game over. At this point it is just smoke and mirrors and some hollerin'!!!!!
that desoto was a nice car
Britain issued perpetual gilts during WW1
Ford has actually been making some good cars lately. GM is still terrible with awful interiors, although the Chevrolet Malibu is serviceable.
I don't know anyone who owns a Chrysler so I am not sure they make cars anymore. Jeep (which are actually amazing vehicles for off roading) is the only valuable brand left at Chrysler.
Heck, if the small 3 go under, who is next to fall?
Schwinn bicycles?
Britain issued perpetuals.
Isn't that what we all do know, except we call it "rolling over" the debt?!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ARGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!
know = now
OCDan | 12.02.08 - 3:29 pm | #
+1
Who attached a rocket booster to the markets while I wasn't watching?
--
On Lord Acton...
In America
Acton took a great interest in America, considering its Federal structure the perfect guarantor of individual liberties. During the American Civil War, his sympathies lay entirely with the Confederacy, for their defense of States' Rights against a centralized government that, by all historical precedent, would inevitably turn tyrannical. His notes to Gladstone on the subject helped sway many in the British government to sympathize with the South. After the South's surrender, he wrote to Robert E. Lee that "I mourn for the stake which was lost at Richmond more deeply than I rejoice over that which was saved at Waterloo."
John Dalberg-Acton, 1st Baron Acton - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Gangistan succeeded by creating Dopeland. Lincoln was a tyrant and an evildoer and G.W. Bush is following in his footsteps.
Jas
Just what is anyone thinking when they propse 100-year bonds?
The same thing they were thinking when they proposed 40-year and 50-year mortgages.
They're thinking ponzi finance.
In effect building an economy on promises that can never be kept and putting all the nation's effort in to coming up with creative ways to hide the fact.
100yr bond ~ preferred shares
Time to fold Chrysler. I call dibs on the tooling for the Viper.
Isn't this just rich!
Automakers turnaround plans sent to Congress - Dec. 2, 2008
Tell me, is selling a jet really going to save a company from BK?
Yeah, that's right. Didn't think so.
And the $1 salary, if F borrows from gov't.
Sheesh, what will they think of next?
No wonder this company is broke on so many levels.
My 12 yr. old son could do a better job. I am serious.
Timmy's just gettin the hang of the buy button at Treas
STOP SPENDING MONEY YOU DON'T HAVE,
YOU MORONS!
Not an option with Ponzi finance.
That leads to collapse.
wasn't that the american dream, spending money that we didn't have?
Based on the last few comments, I guess it safe to say that:
Remind me again why we are trying to save the unsaveable?
Yes, I'm surprised the WSJ still has any influence.
STOP SPENDING MONEY YOU DON'T HAVE, YOU MORONS!
They can't.
If they stop spending money they don't have, the money that they do have evaporates.
Look at Donald Trump. He quit spending and now, ka-bing, he's toast.
Honda+Acura down 31%: Honda Media Newsroom Release: American Honda Reports November Sales
Here's something re the concern I voiced last night concerning the long treasuries: a repeat of the gunfight at OK Corral.
You just wonder if youre going to be the last man in."
Long Bond Returns Most Since 1995 Amid Bubble Talk (Update2)
Long Bond Returns Most Since 1995 Amid ‘Bubble’ Talk (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Remind me again why we are trying to save the unsaveable?
Oh, maybe because it's all we got?
Buying well in the money srs jan calls. It's fun having cash.
Who is Chrysler?
Crazy Eddie-Spoos....
This market is ****insane****.
Trading the short side of a market is not always easy.
mykillk writes:
Who attached a rocket booster to the markets while I wasn't watching?
Why the failure of the auto industry of course. Set off the stock market like a firecracker!
Time to buy the Big Three cause Uncle Sam gonna make em whole which means their equity (or lack thereof) and assets will be backed by the almighty American taxpayer. Which means you too can get in on the mark to model action. But act fast!
So basically the American Dream at its minimum means 1 car and 1 house for each American family. At this rate Uncle Sam will be providing that plus insurance and free checking for all good citizens.
Who needs health care when you can all the above plus a plush pony!
God Bless American Socialism!
ac writes:
Just what is anyone thinking when they propse 100-year bonds?
The same thing they were thinking when they proposed 40-year and 50-year mortgages.
They're thinking ponzi finance.
In effect building an economy on promises that can never be kept and putting all the nation's effort in to coming up with creative ways to hide the fact.
ac | 12.02.08 - 3:31 pm | #
Interesting you should mention these as i hear Mrs. Bair mention these last week as a way to bail out the FBs.
They will do everything
EXCEPT THE ONE NECESSARY...
Lower the amount owed.
Heck, go to any mortgage calculator on line and see the difference between a 30, 40, and 50-yr. mortgage payment.
Bankers of old, whatever else we may say, knew that 30 was the max in terms of life and payments. Going any further out, i.e. 40 or 50, even the 100 yr. in Japan saves you dollars per month.
The amortization just doesn't make any sense beyond 30 for a buyer.
Heck, anything beyond 20 doesn't really make sense to me, but that is just me!
"Britain issued perpetual gilts during WW1"
I don't think "issued" is the right term. "Enforced"?
Looks like nobody wants to be short heading into the 5:30 GM presentation.
Seems to be a lot of bailout gaming today.
Those GM leap puts sure look ripe for the selling. Basically, a $0.60/share bet that Congress will "bridge" them to the future (the future defined as "after the next election"). Hell, even AIG and FNM are trading above that level, and we already know they're bankrupt.
If this economy is all we got, in the words of the Mugambo Guru:
"WE ARE FREAKIN' DOOMED!!!!!!!!!!!"
I knew this guy had a nice home, mostly paid for, in a decent inner city neighborhood. Then went off the Rush Limbaugh deep end, needed huge square footage on a multi-acre spread in the hinterlands. He and his wife were both making the 120 mile round trip commutes in separate cars everyday while the young children stayed in daycare. After a while he quit his modest but stable job downtown to be a car salesman in said hinterlands. I'm guessing they're experiencing or have experienced some financial distress.
OCDan: word dude--valium
1. Our economy is a Ponzi scheme. Check.
Well we can attempt to keep the Ponzi scheme going for as long as possible and hope for some miracle to bail us it. It's at least possible. Jim Rogers has argued that the UK got bailed out in the 1970s by their miracle oil find.
The problem is that a) Ponzi finance schemes become more fragile the longer they continue b) the collapse at the end gets bigger and bigger the longer it goes on.
Basically you continually get closer and closer to the edge of the cliff and the cliff gets higher and higher.
Reason suggests that you jump off the cliff while you can still survive the fall.
Alas we may be beyond that point now.
Eric: "Which is the exact day some clown on CNBC expects a 40% rally to start:http://www.cnbc.com/id/28010476"
Sounds like last year--was it a repeat?
Randy, you must be speaking of my SIL and BIL. The two who moved to Temecula. She drives about 110 miles roundtrip daily on the 15, heading north. He stays at home on perm. disability. Nice gig, he's got. She earns, he spends.
Before this buy, 2 BKs and 1 VERY short sale (maybe foreclosure)!
Nice economic model and we ponder the instability of it all.
Going to get back half of yesterday's losses. If we get back at least the other half tomorrow I will stop trading the short side of this market.
Once the Big Three get their bailout, I'll be referring to them as the Three Little Pigs.
Just so you'll know to whom I'll be referring.
As my wife used to say 5-7 years ago: "Why don't they just build on placed orders?"
And as I used to say: "Get rid of the dealers. Why should I pay more when the dealer can just roll one off the line for me. I'll pay shipping ro pick up myself!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"
There is no reason you couldn't walk into a 'showroom' of samples - test drive a vehicle, special order it and have it shipped to your home almost anywhere in the US in about five working days.
Showroom would be that - only samples to test drive - nothing to buy there except maybe trade ins.
Seriously.
You could even forgo the showroom if you didn't want a test drive first - most wouldn't do that (I sure wouldn't).
Google 'JIT' 'Lean Supply Chain' 'Mixed Model Assembly' 'make to order' and you'll know more than the auto execs on how to execute a modern mfg operation.
Nemo writes:
USD/JPY 93.03
10-year yield 2.666%
30-year yield 3.194%
Holy crap!
93 Yen per dollar?
We're not diving... we're at 600ft down under depth charge attack!
but as a gift for opening the account they were offering a cute stuffed animal . . a pony!
ROTFLMAO
Every dealer lot I've seen recently is jammed to capacity and extra storage space is being temporarily rented in the parking lots of failed stores.
Toyota is filing up the ports. Heck, they're even parking the 18-wheelers that deliver the trucks at the Port of Long Beach. (Yes... mass driver layoffs.)
That's strange. Most of the dealer lots I've seen were empty with a "For Lease" sign on the window.
Broward Horne
ROTFL
There are 3 empty car lots in our area. The Honda, Toyota, Saturn, Chevy, Ford, BMW, Nissan, Kia, and Mercedes are still open. Lost the Pontiac (ok, so what), Lincoln, and Hyundai merged into the Kia dealer. There might be a 4th empty (GMC), but its full of chevy trucks now...
Got Popcorn?
Neil
"We're not diving... we're at 600ft down under depth charge attack!"
And the hull is creaking, groaning, and making extremely ominous popping noises...
........"Inflation and debt loads will be an issue down the road".....", - David Kotok, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer
My point exactly - that might be why we're here?
Das Boot clip anyone?
...."Paulson is now giving financial advice to China...going there for a 2 day meeting".....
UhOh....they'll be able to read him like a book....hold onto your wallets
Conjure Bag says,
"I want my $(&^ing pony. Now."
Relax. Congress is going to fix everything.
Ford and GM are giving up their corp jets - apparently their execs are more effective when mired in traffic.
Every dealer lot I've seen recently is jammed to capacity.
That's strange. Most of the dealer lots I've seen were empty with a "For Lease" sign on the window.
Broward Horne
Good one. There are those, too.
The funniest one I've seen is on my local "auto row" where 6 or 7 lots in a row are set up. The last (most recent) one was going to be a Saturn dealer. The lot has been graded and the forms for the footings are in place . . . and have been in place for over two months . . . and are rotting in the weather.
Somehow I got the impression they won't really be building anything there for a while.
(Reuters) - The U.S. government should provide a federal guaranty to meet American International Group Inc's (AIG.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) counterparty collateral requirements, the insurer's former Chief Executive Maurice Greenberg said.
Will someone please shoot "Hank" and ease our pain?
Anonymous writes:
Going to get back half of yesterday's losses. If we get back at least the other half tomorrow I will stop trading the short side of this market.
Anonymous | 12.02.08 - 3:43 pm
You obviously scared the bejeebus out of the PPT. Nothing but downward momentum since your ultimatum.
Just bought a spade. Hopefully i will get a 'good paying job' building roads.
The only people I know who bought Chrysler were black. Don't know why. Just like only white guys buy F150's and Latino men buy white step-vans here. There is a whole social/caste thing with cars thats interesting.
Just got back from picking up my dog at the vet. It was $320 for the visit and grooming. Business was dead at both places. Parked next to an auto parts place that does a lot of deliveries. Looked like all their trucks were in.
From the number of brake lights, front lights, and squealing brakes I have run across lately; no one is doing maintenance.
These markets are manipulated beyond belief. Guess I'll load up on some more cheaper puts...
--
Going to College & Grad School Looks Like a Disaster
By Nan Mooney, AlterNet
Posted on December 2, 2008, Printed on December 2, 2008
With the job market tanking, have you been thinking that now is the perfect time to go to school, or go back to school, to shore up those job skills and make sure you have an edge in the market?
Going to College & Grad School Looks Like a Disaster | | AlterNet
The main function of modern education is to breed dopes, via massive propaganda, that make good economic slaves (inhabitants of Dopeland) to the capitalist rulers (inhabitants of Gangistan). Most of the wealthiest people in the world did not complete college, or got a cheap college degree!
America consists of Gangistan (rulers) and Dopeland (the ruled). It would answer all your questions about the American economy and the econo-political system of recent years. India consists of Greater Gangistan and Greater Dopeland!
America as it exists in the minds of Americans and many outsiders is an illusion; it squarely consists of ruling economic and political Gangs and "law abiding" and well-trained dopes that obey and serve the gangs.
Jas
"You obviously scared the bejeebus out of the PPT. Nothing but downward momentum since your ultimatum."
Whoops. I forgot about final jeopardy, where the scores can REALLY change.
Greater Gangistan
~~~
Greater Gangsterstan sounds better...
ew thread
United Knaves...
If I had to pinpoint one severe error at GM, it would be the mismatch between perceived market demands and lengthy product development timeframes.
It takes them an age to put a new product on the street, so today they're positioned for the US market of, say, 2003.
That goes for expansion of the dealer network, floorplans, plant improvements, everything.
As to the quality of the products themselves, the company is perfectly capable of designing and delivering spectacularly fine cars. But they have found the market far more responsive to marginal, insubstantial changes, and have responded accordingly.
We're basically getting the cars we asked for, a few years late.
Why focus on GM sales being down 41%?
-47% Chrysler
-42% Nissan
-41% GM
-33% Toyota
-31% Honda
-30% Ford
Car sales are being slaughtered in general.