Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Fortress Investment Group LLC halted withdrawals from its largest hedge fund after investors asked to pull $3.51 billion by year-end.
Redemptions from Drawbridge Global Macro Fund Ltd. include $1.5 billion in requests disclosed last month, the New York-based company said today in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Fortress didnt say when investors will be able to get their money."
Vancouver Canada backstopped a 100m loan with these folks. HaHa!! And good luck with that.
OT but interesting, looks like even the smart guys didnt get this one right:
In a sign of the economic times, Harvard has sent a letter to its deans saying that the universitys $36.9 billion endowment fund lost 22 percent of its value in the last four months and could decline as much as 30 percent by the end of the fiscal year on June 30.
Someone mentioned the talmud yesterday (yogi?). It's so obvious but the talmud is commentary and of course the commentary has commentary which is exactly what happens here. Problem is, the answer to questions like "is a certain toothpaste kosher" has relied more on the kickbacks to the rabbi than the achievement of transcendental truth through eternal hairsplitting.
Hardcore evidence from personal anecdote? I witnessed the blessing of a food production facility before passover by a lubavitcher rabbi. His duties require him to inspect all the machinery and in the nooks an crannies to see if all the evil leavened bread is gone. He was there for a total of about 10 minutes. Walked into the manager's office, kibbitzed, and then walked off with a case of very expensive alcohol.
regarding your post above beginning
Anyone seen EHP?
Got news for him/her:
Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Fortress Investment Group LLC halted withdrawals from its largest hedge fund after investors asked to pull $3.51 billion by year-end.
two days ago i shared with mp after he wrote:
(conjure clock)
11:59:47
mp | 12.02.08 - 2:39 pm | #
yes mp feels just like last march only now the powers that be may be are outta tricks
in olympia washington, a friend who is a bank branch manager and his "in house" investments guy (the really big bank that got "consumed" by a really bigger bank) (sorry he needs deniability)
they told me that there will be significant hedge fund redemptions taking place end of december and it wont be pretty
his opinion ( not mine, im not smart enuf to know on my own) is that, in combination with other events, like a dismal retail season, could be the final nail in the coffin
mock turtle | 12.02.08 - 2:54 pm | #
uncle billy,
Ahh brings back memories of my first job out of school when i would have food grade tankers and intermodles come in and need to be cleaned for next load which had to be kosher...
had to get a rabbi to come inspect and bless facility, then watch that steam was applied for > 20 minutes as he blessed the unit and i wrote check to one of the two rabinical unions..
had no idea when i would see packaging circle k or circle U what that meant and the scam that went into that logo...
its RICO for italian mobsters to get cash for "blessings" , and okee dokee for the Rabinicals...
Dear Santa,
I want Pig mugs with a choice of inscriptions such as:
Tanta has her wings
Mortgage Pig to the Rescue
Festivus for the Restivus
This little Piggy went to market...
"Hedge fund executives are now talking about year-end redemptions of about 15-20 percent, although Man Group Chief Executive Peter Clarke has estimated it will be more like a quarter or a third.
"I think aggregate redemptions over the last quarter could be 20-25 percent," said Cem Habib, co-founder of fund of hedge funds firm Altedge Capital.
"Some funds are seeing 50 percent or worse, while some are seeing as little as 5 percent," he said.
""Investors pulled at least $43bn from US hedge funds in September as market turmoil led to unprecedented withdrawals, an analysis by a leading research house shows.
The data from TrimTabs Investment Research - which was to be sent to clients late yesterday - come as hedge funds are working to prevent far bigger redemptions by the end of the year, when many funds give investors a chance to take out money.
Withdrawals can lead to a vicious circle in the markets, as funds sell holdings to return money to clients, depressing prices and prompting further redemptions.
To prevent such an outcome, some hedge funds had offered to suspend fees if investors kept their money in until March, said Marc Freed, of Lyster Watson, which invests in hedge funds on behalf of institutional and private clients.
"Every investor fears other investors will pull their money and so they worry they will be at the back of the line if they don't also pull," Mr Freed said. "Nobody will invest in anything illiquid because they think they may not survive long enough to see them rise in value."
The almost deliberate lack of subtlety in the pumping action leads me to believe that some genius has decided that investor confidence can best be restored by making it blatantly obvious that "the system" has the back of anyone who wants to go long.
Might actually work for a little while. But unless that crutch is staying for good, when it's gone (or even when it looks like it might be about to go), this sucker is going to pull a Wile E. Coyote.
I expect that when things settle down a bit, CR will have the chance to review the thread hijacking and enable a system which will permit civil discourse. It would be a shame if EHP and CSC, and others, no longer comment due to spoofing and flaming; now is the time that both intelligence and humor is needed.
Plus, CSC comes up with some seriously twisted vids.
Somewhat OT, did you see the investor suit against Citi executives for suspicious trades?
Can we have a bailout Pigs too? A pink or blue pig driving a Ford, GM, or chrysler? Or a pig bank president, Pig AIG, etc....OMG this pig could replace beanie babies and smiley faces!! Can I purchase pig stock or IPO's on the Pig?
assume crash positions (irony in that name... market positions)
anyway, remember the 2 constants of wilie, one the dead silence then the look down and then straight in to the camera...
I didnt hear the silence yet unless hidden in todays news that BB and HP are planning on new ways to stimulate market... i heard crickets behind that one, so we are close...
and i do believe in private someone has looked down...
America has yet to see the glance in the camera and the petite wave good bye
A group of Yahoo posters on WMB who self-identified as "the Band of Idiots" were buying like crazy between $1 and $2 and, after it rose, used CafePress.com to make up some items in celebration. I still use them with great pride even if no one else understands what they mean anymore. I know what they reference and the memories are very pleasant.
Tanta's family has the clothing side down. Mugs are a different world, though, and may require outside help.
BTW, I once suggested here that I would proudly wear a CalculatedRisk ballcap and also that I drink a lot of coffee.
Oh, beleive me. I think this sucker is going down (and soon). I'm merely trying to rationalize how far short to go right now as I can't completely discount the possibility of a wicked hope/TARP fueled rally back to SPX over 1k. As has been said upthread, this is a very dangerous market.
barley - thanks. Back when the credit markets froze up I was sending that link to lots of people. I don't think many /most realize how close to systemic freeze-up we were / are. So I just said, think of it as earthquake preparedness.
Uber-bulls and uber-bears will be destroyed by this market when its all through. Thats what real vicious bear markets do - they flush out everyone until no one wants anything to do with it.
I think this is the best phrase of all. Circle Jerk of Risk.
From Tantas first post Let Slip the Dogs of Hell 12/15/2006
I still haven't gotten over the fact that there's a "capital management" group out there having named itself "Cerberus". Those of you who were not asleep in Miss Buttkicker's Intro to Western Civ will recognize Cerberus; the rest of you may have picked up the mythological fix from its reprise as "Fluffy" in the first Harry Potter novel. Wherever you get your culture, Cerberus is the three-headed dog who guards the gates of Hell. It takes three heads to do that, of course, because it's never clear, in theology or finance, whether the idea is to keep the righteous from falling into the pit or the demons from escaping out of it (the third head is busy meeting with the regulators).
If you thought the only thing that would stop the circle jerk of risk was putting some credit and pricing discipline into the game, I guess you're just a weenie like me. Anyone who can make sense of this is free to set me straight. And if the answer has "sorting socks" in it, don't bother. I've tried that.
I've got a few way OTM index puts with long expiry dates and a few ultralong/ultrashort positions that I've been doing the lather, rinse, repeat shuffle on for the past couple of weeks to marginally beneficial effect. I think we do have a bit more up to go. SPX 1000 would be unexpected, but I could easily see a retest of 920 land. Mostly in cash waiting for something resembling a rational entry position (i.e your aforementioned irrational despondency -- I like that one).
but doesnt this volatility invite the long straddle futures trade
from wikipedia
"A long straddle involves going long, purchasing, both a call option and a put option on some stock, interest rate, index or other underlying. The two options are bought at the same strike price and expire at the same time. The owner of a long straddle makes a profit if the underlying price moves a long way from the strike price, either above or below. Thus, an investor may take a long straddle position if he thinks the market is highly volatile, but does not know in which direction it is going to move. This position is a limited risk, since the most a purchaser may lose is the cost of both options. At the same time, there is unlimited profit potential, since the change of the underlying price of any option is unlimited.[1]
The stock market is the longest ongoing dead man walking in the ICU. A interminable wake as the deputy corner hesitates to tag the toe and send in the priest for last rites. Paulson and Bernanke refuse to make funeral arrangements and bury the stinkers. They believe in Reagan's voodoo economics.
even a near dead corpses can dance round the room one last time if you draw one big white line of credit powder on the mirror and have them snort it thru an 8 trillion dollar bill
sbarrkum: Still haven't gotten over my fascination with you. Doesn't that ersatz Dr. Doom Marc Faber have a history with Sri Lanka? Did you ever bump into him?
mock turtle - Thats complicated. I try to buy low and sell high. I like simplicity.
BF - Bear rallies are ugly and painfull. But, so long as you think folks will be irrational and emotionally driven - it a good time to play. Once 99/100 say we are doomed, its time to go long (me thinks we are almost their - however the credit freeze is making it scary in terms of timing). On a whim bought some F paper today yield was outragious and if a deal gets done paper should do beter than equity. If a deal does not get done I wont go to zero either.
Gather up all the Excel spreadsheets, covert each page into a GIF, animate them (enough of the ctl+page_dn), save them as a video.
I recommend mpig format....
Carl: I wasn't the born'n'bred dupe. It was the son of one of the wealthiest middle eastern families. Didn't kill him; made him stronger. He does venture capital now.
Uncle Billy, Commenter | Homepage | 12.03.08 - 3:06 pm | # sbarrkum: Still haven't gotten over my fascination with you.
Thats a little scary, specially after topic you had just commented on
Doesn't that ersatz Dr. Doom Marc Faber have a history with Sri Lanka? Did you ever bump into him?
Dont know, havent been back for a about two years. I guess one of these days I'll have plenty of time on my hands (no pun intended).
I live out here in NYC, and just moved into the Bronx with purpose of blending in and cutting down my expense. After reading this blog for almost 3 years trying to live very minimally.
"CHICAGO, Dec. 3 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Harris today announced the appointment of Christopher McComish as Executive Vice-President & Head of Retail Banking, Harris Community Bank."
Going back and reading the posts from 2 years ago I'm impressed by how much more analysis was going on in the comments to the blogs than now. Still a lot of good comments but a lto more chafe to wade through.
Lots like my daughters will be receiving Mortgage Pig shirts whether they understand them or not
So, bankruptcy is "not an option" for GM. Isn't that nice. How arrogant. They clearly WILL be bankrupt within a week if they are not bailed out- and regardless they'll be bankrupt within a year.
The market feels like it is in profound denial again. I think it is due to the expectation of some government announcement that will goose stocks.
Ohhh yesbe very afraid. Remember the Palm Pistol ergonomic handgun from a few months back? Well, you will be interested to know that it has been designated as a medical gadget by the FDA.
In a statement submitted to Medgadget, the manufacturer, Constitution Arms, has revealed the following:
We thought you might be interested to learn that the FDA has completed its Device/Not a Device determination and concluded the handgun will be listed as a Class I Medical Device, exempt from 510(k) Pre-Market Notification in accordance with 21 CFR 890.5050 Daily Activity Assist Device.
We have now submitted an application to the CMS contractor Noridian for a DME (Durable Medical Equipment) Coding Verification in order to be assigned an HCPCS code. Once assigned , physicians will be able to prescribe the Palm Pistol for qualified patients who may seek reimbursement through Medicare or private health insurance companies.
BMO one of the best capitialized banks in the world right now. Harris has always made money. Good mgmt team. Excellent new talent. Clearly they are poke at some troubled carcasses (sp?).
Satan: yesterday on the radio they were talking about how most crime in Okinawa Japan is committed by senior citizens. One expert attributed the phenomenon to loneliness -- they're seeking negative attention. I feel a South Park episode emerging.
There is nothing to worry! The wise people in our government have thought of new strategies to handle the glut of older people living in assisted living facilities.
Honestly, I think prescription guns for older people would reduce medicare costs better than any new drug/ technology. Imagine how much money could be saved if the chronically ill older people just killed themselves.
Sorry I wasn't clearer - those FDIC backed bonds were the funding source to lever up some yen borrowing that gets levered up again to pump equities...
citizen energyecon
Quite likely. But the potential for suicide by depressed older people could solve our medicare problem.
//Satan: yesterday on the radio they were talking about how most crime in Okinawa Japan is committed by senior citizens. One expert attributed the phenomenon to loneliness -- they're seeking negative attention. I feel a South Park episode emerging.//
Having read some more, I realize what a miraculous gift Tanta's two years to us really were. We almost didn't get to read her thoughts at all-- she turned CR down at first, because she thought she wasn't going to make it much past 2006.
Many thanks to the Powers That Be for gifting Tanta with those two years, and letting her share her thoughts with us. A treasure indeed. May she be happy now.
--
A simple question: Why not ask for cash contributions, all of which would be made out to a list of charities that Tanta would have liked to support?
Anyway, I don't have the talent that Tanta had in communicating to dopes. It definitely is a talent.
Uncle Billy,
Heres another view. From a post at FTAlphaville
Quants have the lowest prestige jobs in the entire industry, draw remarkably low salaries considering the level of education you have to have to get those jobs and the long hours and the awful working conditions, and Lewis says that they are routinely and cruelly and ruthlessly snubbed by the other half of the business. Those are the people whose specialty is sales. Flash forward to a particular bubble housing when, as Michael Lewis himself noted in his recent Portfolio article "The End," punters who clearly couldn't afford five speculative mortgages (yet had somehow got them) were beginning to fall behind on their payments. Hicks notes:
somewhere in some windowless cubicle in the basement, there was at least one quantitative analyst screaming his head off in emails about this, about how the mathematical modeling that underlaid the calculations that determined pricing on collateralized debt obligations was based on statistical analysis of customers who were buying their primary home, not as an investment vehicle but to live in, and pricing those homes based on reasonable expectations of what someone in their social class could afford to live in and paying no more for them than three times their income.
I have been in similar position, trying to explain limitations of models.
as i said, why do we dopes try and put a ring around a coke bottle at a fair for 5 dollars, to MAYBE win a 30 cent trinket... to some we are dopes, to us its the trinket and that we had fun obtaining it, not the cost...
the mug is the memento of tanta, and her gift, and like a simple goldfish in a bag, that i know will either be dead beofre i get home, or else lives forever as in turns out to be Koi...
"Treasury is considering a plan to halt sliding home prices by lowering mortgage rates via Fannie and Freddie.
REBear"
This is a good plan. And why don't they reduce credit card defaults by reducing interest rates. And reduce car loan defaults by reducing interest rates. These f$%kheads, don't get it, do they? You can't pay if you don't have money.
Good luck with the tight stops on SRS. I used to try that but it is too much like day trading.
Now I wait to buy low and then just let it ride until it explodes. When it was at $300 or so a few weeks ago i wasn't expecting to get any orders filled in the near future. But here it is again for sale at $120 while we get daily articles on the destruction awaiting the CRE markets.
A simple question: Why question someone else's philanthropic endeavours? And if you are dumb enough to do that, then why not propose your own philanthropic endeavour rather than Monday morning QB'ing somebody else's?
Anyway, I dont have the talent for being bullish on the 10 year when its yielding 2.70%. I leave that to the broken clocks that are right twice a day.
REBear - Maybe they can use Blackrock's idea of issuing 100 Y Ts. A family/person is obligated for 100 years - unless they die first in which case, the underlying collateral goes to the USG.
"TDBD writes:
Germany considers Consumption Coupons.... $632 per citizen"
Ain't gonna happen. Too much political pressure against that, and Merkel is against it too. Germans are cold-hearted bastards when it comes to giving their citizens the impression they are being coddled.
Hell, German officials sell off their grandmothers to get money into the official coffers. They are selling Knut the polar bear (Berlin Zoo mega star!!) -- the latest victim of the crunch. The zoo says that it cannot afford the mega million it would cost to build him a new compound and provide a mate.
I mentioned the mugs, ball caps and buttons to Image Mark-it. The "soft items" like the cap are easy to embroider and they are looking at it. On the others - we'll keep you posted.
One of the original designs was a "crying towel". Since it took on a new meaning I pulled it.
I also mentioned "Tanta_Vive" for the back of the ball cap.
I appreciate all of you who have purchased items so far and your kind words on most of them. It was a little crazy yesterday for awhile but we only have 12 or so with sizing questions. One trade desk purchased 11 convexity shirts. If they want to take a picture and send it to CR I would love to see it.
I'd love to see any of them.
I saw the posts about "if I ever see a Tanta item you'll get a hug".
o!
well, whatever I can do, should the need arise, let me know
one place it won't lead to is shrub's pres library
Anyone seen EHP?
Got news for him/her:
Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Fortress Investment Group LLC halted withdrawals from its largest hedge fund after investors asked to pull $3.51 billion by year-end.
Redemptions from Drawbridge Global Macro Fund Ltd. include $1.5 billion in requests disclosed last month, the New York-based company said today in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Fortress didnt say when investors will be able to get their money."
Vancouver Canada backstopped a 100m loan with these folks. HaHa!! And good luck with that.
OT but interesting, looks like even the smart guys didnt get this one right:
In a sign of the economic times, Harvard has sent a letter to its deans saying that the universitys $36.9 billion endowment fund lost 22 percent of its value in the last four months and could decline as much as 30 percent by the end of the fiscal year on June 30.
- NY Times
Talk about being on the wrong side of a few trades.... Ouch!
.....
Nice stuff - can't wait for my delivery!
CDS - any coffee mugs in the works?
blackhat back from CA to come across this news...
/sigh
mom in last stage of bone cancer...
/sigh
what a loss
OT -- someone please call the PPT before this midday plunge gets out of hand.
ades they may have lost value but not money per se. Actually 22% aint that bad.
blackhat(Unrated) writes:
blackhat back from CA to come across this news...
mom in last stage of bone cancer...
God bless you and her both, friend.
Sweet - FIG dives 20% - cash out and take my winnings.
Talk about being on the wrong side of a few trades.... Ouch!
Nice to be able to put a face on the people that are paying for the new house though.
I'll have a nice plaque on the cornerstone dedicating it to the fine folks at the Harvard endowment.
Yeah, I want Pig mugs. Great xmas gift for those inlaws who think Bush is the bestest of prez's.
blackhat(Unrated) writes:
blackhat back from CA to come across this news...
mom in last stage of bone cancer...
Sad to hear that. I've been through similar circumstances. It's a rough ride.
It's really disturbing to see somebody as young and talented as Tanta go through that though.
Sometimes it makes you wonder about the world we live in.
Thanks byzantine & ac.
At least we have mortgage pig, an enduring endearing symbol...
wow.... that SRS gapped right down through my stop.
I'll take 5% in 2.5 hours on my money though.
I'd like a mug, also.
would love a mug and mouse pad
would love a mug and mouse pad
+1 for both!
though i want a pull over so when i walk around those who know, will know , those who dont, never will...
kinda like a secret club, like when Dave Ramsey say better than i should be...
you know the secret...
not some antiquated eyeball on a pyramid, nope, we have MP... no offense mp...
ditto -
btw has anyone really ordered a mortgage pig shirt and SENT it to Bernake and/or Paulson?
I may well have to.
Someone mentioned the talmud yesterday (yogi?). It's so obvious but the talmud is commentary and of course the commentary has commentary which is exactly what happens here. Problem is, the answer to questions like "is a certain toothpaste kosher" has relied more on the kickbacks to the rabbi than the achievement of transcendental truth through eternal hairsplitting.
Hardcore evidence from personal anecdote? I witnessed the blessing of a food production facility before passover by a lubavitcher rabbi. His duties require him to inspect all the machinery and in the nooks an crannies to see if all the evil leavened bread is gone. He was there for a total of about 10 minutes. Walked into the manager's office, kibbitzed, and then walked off with a case of very expensive alcohol.
Barley:
EHP is presently lurking or posting under another handle.
Someone abused his moniker last weekend and posted some apparently wild stuff on a late night thread.
He's around.
And "Hello" to CSC.
Barley you might be interested in this
regarding your post above beginning
Anyone seen EHP?
Got news for him/her:
Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Fortress Investment Group LLC halted withdrawals from its largest hedge fund after investors asked to pull $3.51 billion by year-end.
two days ago i shared with mp after he wrote:
(conjure clock)
11:59:47
mp | 12.02.08 - 2:39 pm | #
yes mp feels just like last march only now the powers that be may be are outta tricks
in olympia washington, a friend who is a bank branch manager and his "in house" investments guy (the really big bank that got "consumed" by a really bigger bank) (sorry he needs deniability)
they told me that there will be significant hedge fund redemptions taking place end of december and it wont be pretty
his opinion ( not mine, im not smart enuf to know on my own) is that, in combination with other events, like a dismal retail season, could be the final nail in the coffin
mock turtle | 12.02.08 - 2:54 pm | #
uncle billy,
Ahh brings back memories of my first job out of school when i would have food grade tankers and intermodles come in and need to be cleaned for next load which had to be kosher...
had to get a rabbi to come inspect and bless facility, then watch that steam was applied for > 20 minutes as he blessed the unit and i wrote check to one of the two rabinical unions..
had no idea when i would see packaging circle k or circle U what that meant and the scam that went into that logo...
its RICO for italian mobsters to get cash for "blessings" , and okee dokee for the Rabinicals...
Dear Santa,
I want Pig mugs with a choice of inscriptions such as:
Tanta has her wings
Mortgage Pig to the Rescue
Festivus for the Restivus
This little Piggy went to market...
rps.. ditto
and "we're all subprime now!" i am sure we can have others..
like at disney stores there will be a carosel of mugs, but instead of looking for your name you find the saying you liked, (or slurpee recipe)
hey the story headline says the hedge fund redemptions wont be a big deal
but the story says otherwise
Forbes.com File Not Found
"Hedge fund executives are now talking about year-end redemptions of about 15-20 percent, although Man Group Chief Executive Peter Clarke has estimated it will be more like a quarter or a third.
"I think aggregate redemptions over the last quarter could be 20-25 percent," said Cem Habib, co-founder of fund of hedge funds firm Altedge Capital.
"Some funds are seeing 50 percent or worse, while some are seeing as little as 5 percent," he said.
So apparently the "buy" button at treasury has a timer that is demarked only in hour increments. Looks like someone sent a 2:00 PM liftoff command.
BH-Let me also add Im saddened to hear about your mother. I went through something similar quite a few years back; life can be unfair.
Homedad-Thanks for the info on EHP. There are very few people Ive got set to excellent, but hes one of them.
So apparently the "buy" button at treasury has a timer that is demarked only in hour increments. Looks like someone sent a 2:00 PM liftoff command.
The pumping action the past couple of days has really been impressive.
It's almost starting to feel like the good old bubble days again.
Carl the Greenskeeper writes:
rps.. ditto
and "we're all subprime now!"
Most excellent, first on the list---We're all Subprime Now!
+300 today
Sorry fellas
and this report over at financial times fore told the event about year end hedge fund redemptions 6 weeks ago
for the whole story
FT.com / UK - Withdrawals from US hedge funds reach $43bn in September
""Investors pulled at least $43bn from US hedge funds in September as market turmoil led to unprecedented withdrawals, an analysis by a leading research house shows.
The data from TrimTabs Investment Research - which was to be sent to clients late yesterday - come as hedge funds are working to prevent far bigger redemptions by the end of the year, when many funds give investors a chance to take out money.
Withdrawals can lead to a vicious circle in the markets, as funds sell holdings to return money to clients, depressing prices and prompting further redemptions.
To prevent such an outcome, some hedge funds had offered to suspend fees if investors kept their money in until March, said Marc Freed, of Lyster Watson, which invests in hedge funds on behalf of institutional and private clients.
"Every investor fears other investors will pull their money and so they worry they will be at the back of the line if they don't also pull," Mr Freed said. "Nobody will invest in anything illiquid because they think they may not survive long enough to see them rise in value."
BF - You might be right
rps,
OK i want my mug to have EXCEL Ben on one side quoting "This is strictly contained to subprime"
and on the other side MP with "we are all subprime now"
The almost deliberate lack of subtlety in the pumping action leads me to believe that some genius has decided that investor confidence can best be restored by making it blatantly obvious that "the system" has the back of anyone who wants to go long.
Might actually work for a little while. But unless that crutch is staying for good, when it's gone (or even when it looks like it might be about to go), this sucker is going to pull a Wile E. Coyote.
Barley - very dangerous market - there is much risk trading either side.
I expect that when things settle down a bit, CR will have the chance to review the thread hijacking and enable a system which will permit civil discourse. It would be a shame if EHP and CSC, and others, no longer comment due to spoofing and flaming; now is the time that both intelligence and humor is needed.
Plus, CSC comes up with some seriously twisted vids.
Somewhat OT, did you see the investor suit against Citi executives for suspicious trades?
BTW, I use "genius" above in the most sarcastic way possible.
Can we have a bailout Pigs too? A pink or blue pig driving a Ford, GM, or chrysler? Or a pig bank president, Pig AIG, etc....OMG this pig could replace beanie babies and smiley faces!! Can I purchase pig stock or IPO's on the Pig?
Sorry Big Foot
+1000 today
IPO = initial porcine offering?
assume crash positions (irony in that name... market positions)
anyway, remember the 2 constants of wilie, one the dead silence then the look down and then straight in to the camera...
I didnt hear the silence yet unless hidden in todays news that BB and HP are planning on new ways to stimulate market... i heard crickets behind that one, so we are close...
and i do believe in private someone has looked down...
America has yet to see the glance in the camera and the petite wave good bye
rps- maybe that could be a flying pig in a Lear jet.
Go long pig!
Er, you do know what Long Pig means, right?
Exit - lol the homepage thingy
Mugs and ballcaps are good.
A group of Yahoo posters on WMB who self-identified as "the Band of Idiots" were buying like crazy between $1 and $2 and, after it rose, used CafePress.com to make up some items in celebration. I still use them with great pride even if no one else understands what they mean anymore. I know what they reference and the memories are very pleasant.
Tanta's family has the clothing side down. Mugs are a different world, though, and may require outside help.
BTW, I once suggested here that I would proudly wear a CalculatedRisk ballcap and also that I drink a lot of coffee.
Oh, beleive me. I think this sucker is going down (and soon). I'm merely trying to rationalize how far short to go right now as I can't completely discount the possibility of a wicked hope/TARP fueled rally back to SPX over 1k. As has been said upthread, this is a very dangerous market.
Fed's Beige Book reads like the Doomsday Book, yet the Equities act like a contrariwise indicator
barley - thanks. Back when the credit markets froze up I was sending that link to lots of people. I don't think many /most realize how close to systemic freeze-up we were / are. So I just said, think of it as earthquake preparedness.
Still appropriate, IMO.
ACP - that bet may be dangerous. I'm out thinking we shift up 3-4%
FIG now down 26% - yippie - me bets some are looking at those covenants right 'bout now
SNL bailout skit -
http://msunderestimated.com/SNLBailoutSkit.wmv
I love Soros.
yeah sports fan we need a CR store like Bill Oreilly has, where profit goes to charities of CR's choice.
And we can buy doormats that say "the pig stops here" and CR hats and jackets..
replica's of the "Golden P.I.G Microphone"
dang, i miss my marketing background...
Uber-bulls and uber-bears will be destroyed by this market when its all through. Thats what real vicious bear markets do - they flush out everyone until no one wants anything to do with it.
buy doormats that say "the pig stops here"
ROTFWL
I think this is the best phrase of all.
Circle Jerk of Risk.
From Tantas first post Let Slip the Dogs of Hell 12/15/2006
I still haven't gotten over the fact that there's a "capital management" group out there having named itself "Cerberus". Those of you who were not asleep in Miss Buttkicker's Intro to Western Civ will recognize Cerberus; the rest of you may have picked up the mythological fix from its reprise as "Fluffy" in the first Harry Potter novel. Wherever you get your culture, Cerberus is the three-headed dog who guards the gates of Hell. It takes three heads to do that, of course, because it's never clear, in theology or finance, whether the idea is to keep the righteous from falling into the pit or the demons from escaping out of it (the third head is busy meeting with the regulators).
If you thought the only thing that would stop the circle jerk of risk was putting some credit and pricing discipline into the game, I guess you're just a weenie like me. Anyone who can make sense of this is free to set me straight. And if the answer has "sorting socks" in it, don't bother. I've tried that.
OT - Big 3 CEO's driving hybrids to Washington.
This is funny.
"they flush out everyone until no one wants anything to do with it"
True.
I always wait for those irrational points. IMHO, we are very near an irrational despondancy.
Barley-
I've got a few way OTM index puts with long expiry dates and a few ultralong/ultrashort positions that I've been doing the lather, rinse, repeat shuffle on for the past couple of weeks to marginally beneficial effect. I think we do have a bit more up to go. SPX 1000 would be unexpected, but I could easily see a retest of 920 land. Mostly in cash waiting for something resembling a rational entry position (i.e your aforementioned irrational despondency -- I like that one).
This is funny.
Exit
16 pound hamburger?
all i know is what im told (notsosmart)
but doesnt this volatility invite the long straddle futures trade
from wikipedia
"A long straddle involves going long, purchasing, both a call option and a put option on some stock, interest rate, index or other underlying. The two options are bought at the same strike price and expire at the same time. The owner of a long straddle makes a profit if the underlying price moves a long way from the strike price, either above or below. Thus, an investor may take a long straddle position if he thinks the market is highly volatile, but does not know in which direction it is going to move. This position is a limited risk, since the most a purchaser may lose is the cost of both options. At the same time, there is unlimited profit potential, since the change of the underlying price of any option is unlimited.[1]
Assume Crash Positions,
The stock market is the longest ongoing dead man walking in the ICU. A interminable wake as the deputy corner hesitates to tag the toe and send in the priest for last rites. Paulson and Bernanke refuse to make funeral arrangements and bury the stinkers. They believe in Reagan's voodoo economics.
OTOH, all I want for xmas are pig mugs.
Barley -
Good luck. Althogh, who do you see getting despondent? the uber-bull or the uber-bears?
LOL @ IPO = Initial Pig Offering.
First one I've wanted to put up money for, ever.
even a near dead corpses can dance round the room one last time if you draw one big white line of credit powder on the mirror and have them snort it thru an 8 trillion dollar bill
sbarrkum: Still haven't gotten over my fascination with you. Doesn't that ersatz Dr. Doom Marc Faber have a history with Sri Lanka? Did you ever bump into him?
jeez, MT, i resemble that remark!
mock turtle,
Brilliant, a mortgage pig snort
Picked up SRS again for the market's daily trading session.
Last hour is sure gonna be interesting. I am going to get some beer.
So that would be
COD?
Credit over dose?
Oh and I've got a great story about a real circle jerk that was also a con-job -- appropriate for another forum.
how much did they take you for Uncle Billy?
LowerMiddleClass writes:
Last hour is sure gonna be interesting. I am going to get some beer.
Agree. Looks like a 'Six Flags' formation is building this afternoo
mock turtle - Thats complicated. I try to buy low and sell high. I like simplicity.
BF - Bear rallies are ugly and painfull. But, so long as you think folks will be irrational and emotionally driven - it a good time to play. Once 99/100 say we are doomed, its time to go long (me thinks we are almost their - however the credit freeze is making it scary in terms of timing). On a whim bought some F paper today yield was outragious and if a deal gets done paper should do beter than equity. If a deal does not get done I wont go to zero either.
Gather up all the Excel spreadsheets, covert each page into a GIF, animate them (enough of the ctl+page_dn), save them as a video.
I recommend mpig format....
Barley -
I agree with you. Good luck with your investments and stay away from buying anything on margin!
Blackhat,
my best wishes to you and your mom.
The last hour is only going to be interesting if you are long.
You may want to go for a walk if you're short....
Carl: I wasn't the born'n'bred dupe. It was the son of one of the wealthiest middle eastern families. Didn't kill him; made him stronger. He does venture capital now.
ac | 12.03.08 - 2:35 pm | #
Thinking it goes with the FDIC guaranteed debt offerings from GS and others...
Barley
simplicity...i hear ya...good point
ive never purchased either a call or a put option...
i dont have the knowlege and the guts...
and executing both together as a straddle would be a step beyond that so
just thinkin out loud about what i read
UB,
well i hoped he at least enjoyed it at the time....
and thats the people i prefer to deal with..
dont want an investor who hasnt lost his ass...
dont want an undercover agent that hasnt lied, stolen or done drugs...
prepfer my people i surround myself with have known bottom or at least seen it... also, must be past tense!
Dont want an economist from some la te da college telling me about how to run a business thats never run one...
BF - margin? Never!
Uncle Billy, Commenter | Homepage | 12.03.08 - 3:06 pm | #
sbarrkum: Still haven't gotten over my fascination with you.
Thats a little scary, specially after topic you had just commented on
Doesn't that ersatz Dr. Doom Marc Faber have a history with Sri Lanka? Did you ever bump into him?
Dont know, havent been back for a about two years. I guess one of these days I'll have plenty of time on my hands (no pun intended).
I live out here in NYC, and just moved into the Bronx with purpose of blending in and cutting down my expense. After reading this blog for almost 3 years trying to live very minimally.
rps | 12.03.08 - 3:01 pm | #
Your dead man walking...
THE FACTS IN THE CASE OF M. VALDEMAR
The Facts in the Case of M. Valdemar/Edgar Allan Poe
Germany considers Consumption Coupons.... $632 per citize
Germany considers Consumption Coupons.... $632 per citizen
Exactly what one expecting fiat collapse would predict based on history.
"CHICAGO, Dec. 3 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Harris today announced the appointment of Christopher McComish as Executive Vice-President & Head of Retail Banking, Harris Community Bank."
well I'll be
barley.. why?
Going back and reading the posts from 2 years ago I'm impressed by how much more analysis was going on in the comments to the blogs than now. Still a lot of good comments but a lto more chafe to wade through.
Lots like my daughters will be receiving Mortgage Pig shirts whether they understand them or not
Thinking it goes with the FDIC guaranteed debt offerings from GS and others...
citizen energyecon
But look at all the one shot pumps as the market approaches flat line.
I don't see how this can be anything but a phenomenon internal to the markets.
--
Charity via consumerism? Amazing.
Jas
shadowjack,
I think the future was so obvious back then, it was easy to analyze.
Carl the Greenskeeper - It means BMO is going shopping.
the consumerism is in simply something to remind the donor....
a 5 dollar mug with an excel pig BOUGHT for 25 dollars is not so much consumerism as charity..
A 5 dollar mug SOLD for 25 heck 6 dollars in consumerism in a stretch..
So, bankruptcy is "not an option" for GM. Isn't that nice. How arrogant. They clearly WILL be bankrupt within a week if they are not bailed out- and regardless they'll be bankrupt within a year.
The market feels like it is in profound denial again. I think it is due to the expectation of some government announcement that will goose stocks.
"Charity via consumerism? Amazing."
Making an asshole comment about charitable giving? Even more amazing.
The talmud comment was scary??
barley,
you think he will be leading an aquisition team? You think most will be wachovia?
Prescription Handguns For the Elderly and Disabled: This Won't End Well
Prescription Handguns For the Elderly and Disabled: This Won't End Well - Palm Pistol - Gizmodo
Ohhh yesbe very afraid. Remember the Palm Pistol ergonomic handgun from a few months back? Well, you will be interested to know that it has been designated as a medical gadget by the FDA.
In a statement submitted to Medgadget, the manufacturer, Constitution Arms, has revealed the following:
We thought you might be interested to learn that the FDA has completed its Device/Not a Device determination and concluded the handgun will be listed as a Class I Medical Device, exempt from 510(k) Pre-Market Notification in accordance with 21 CFR 890.5050 Daily Activity Assist Device.
We have now submitted an application to the CMS contractor Noridian for a DME (Durable Medical Equipment) Coding Verification in order to be assigned an HCPCS code. Once assigned , physicians will be able to prescribe the Palm Pistol for qualified patients who may seek reimbursement through Medicare or private health insurance companies.
I vote for mugs, too. I'd use it every day, whereas a hoodie or t shirt, not so much.
Oh, and a pony too, while I'm at it.
Negative convexity lives!!!
sbarrkum: here's a link you might find interesting if you haven't seen it already (on FE's from Economist's View)
Economist's View: "The State of Financial Engineering"
BMO one of the best capitialized banks in the world right now. Harris has always made money. Good mgmt team. Excellent new talent. Clearly they are poke at some troubled carcasses (sp?).
(I'll go away after this one)
Satan: yesterday on the radio they were talking about how most crime in Okinawa Japan is committed by senior citizens. One expert attributed the phenomenon to loneliness -- they're seeking negative attention. I feel a South Park episode emerging.
Shook me out on the SRS.
Up $1000 in the morning, down $850 in the afternoon.
Fido commissions win again!
And another pump job commences. Hank, you evil conniving bastard.
Satan writes:
"Prescription Handguns For the Elderly and Disabled: This Won't End Well"
Finally a better way to treat angry patients...
ac | 12.03.08 - 3:30 pm | #
Sorry I wasn't clearer - those FDIC backed bonds were the funding source to lever up some yen borrowing that gets levered up again to pump equities...
Time for a big bite of SRS. Gonna be yummy.
People,
There is nothing to worry! The wise people in our government have thought of new strategies to handle the glut of older people living in assisted living facilities.
Honestly, I think prescription guns for older people would reduce medicare costs better than any new drug/ technology. Imagine how much money could be saved if the chronically ill older people just killed themselves.
Keep stuffing the goose with yen 'til it pops...
We have an economic "Thelma and Louise" moment in progress, and TPTB think green dashboard lights will get the car back on the road...jeebus help us.
Sorry I wasn't clearer - those FDIC backed bonds were the funding source to lever up some yen borrowing that gets levered up again to pump equities...
citizen energyecon
Sounds like a plan.
Quite likely. But the potential for suicide by depressed older people could solve our medicare problem.
//Satan: yesterday on the radio they were talking about how most crime in Okinawa Japan is committed by senior citizens. One expert attributed the phenomenon to loneliness -- they're seeking negative attention. I feel a South Park episode emerging.//
Having read some more, I realize what a miraculous gift Tanta's two years to us really were. We almost didn't get to read her thoughts at all-- she turned CR down at first, because she thought she wasn't going to make it much past 2006.
Many thanks to the Powers That Be for gifting Tanta with those two years, and letting her share her thoughts with us. A treasure indeed. May she be happy now.
I wish I was not joking, because it is the most likely outcome.
"Quite likely. But the potential for suicide by depressed older people could solve our medicare problem."
Treasury is considering a plan to halt sliding home prices - WSJ
Brilliant! Why didn't they think of this before!
What is their "plan"? Prescription ergonomic handguns for everyone?
"s0mebody writes:
Treasury is considering a plan to halt sliding home prices - WSJ"
--
A simple question: Why not ask for cash contributions, all of which would be made out to a list of charities that Tanta would have liked to support?
Anyway, I don't have the talent that Tanta had in communicating to dopes. It definitely is a talent.
Jas
Uncle Billy,
Heres another view. From a post at FTAlphaville
Quants have the lowest prestige jobs in the entire industry, draw remarkably low salaries considering the level of education you have to have to get those jobs and the long hours and the awful working conditions, and Lewis says that they are routinely and cruelly and ruthlessly snubbed by the other half of the business. Those are the people whose specialty is sales.
Flash forward to a particular bubble housing when, as Michael Lewis himself noted in his recent Portfolio article "The End," punters who clearly couldn't afford five speculative mortgages (yet had somehow got them) were beginning to fall behind on their payments. Hicks notes:
somewhere in some windowless cubicle in the basement, there was at least one quantitative analyst screaming his head off in emails about this, about how the mathematical modeling that underlaid the calculations that determined pricing on collateralized debt obligations was based on statistical analysis of customers who were buying their primary home, not as an investment vehicle but to live in, and pricing those homes based on reasonable expectations of what someone in their social class could afford to live in and paying no more for them than three times their income.
I have been in similar position, trying to explain limitations of models.
Treasury is considering a plan to halt sliding home prices by lowering mortgage rates via Fannie and Freddie.
But, Jas, you are the biggest dope of them all. Why can't you communicate with your people?
Just in. Hank Paulson is the dumbest man alive...
Jas, you missed the memo. CR has already posted the list of suggested charities.. selected by Tanta on Saturday. Dope!
Jas,
no harm no foul..
as i said, why do we dopes try and put a ring around a coke bottle at a fair for 5 dollars, to MAYBE win a 30 cent trinket... to some we are dopes, to us its the trinket and that we had fun obtaining it, not the cost...
the mug is the memento of tanta, and her gift, and like a simple goldfish in a bag, that i know will either be dead beofre i get home, or else lives forever as in turns out to be Koi...
i smile at the joy it brought this dope...
we are all Dope now...
elvis
you took the words... i mean...beat me to the punch
and i half like jas, but really jas
might it not be a good idea for you to go to the norman vincent peale school of diplomacy
"Treasury is considering a plan to halt sliding home prices by lowering mortgage rates via Fannie and Freddie.
REBear"
This is a good plan. And why don't they reduce credit card defaults by reducing interest rates. And reduce car loan defaults by reducing interest rates. These f$%kheads, don't get it, do they? You can't pay if you don't have money.
sigh.... well, that SRS ride was fun. Doubled down on my SPY Jun 55 puts at the close.
Good luck with the tight stops on SRS. I used to try that but it is too much like day trading.
Now I wait to buy low and then just let it ride until it explodes. When it was at $300 or so a few weeks ago i wasn't expecting to get any orders filled in the near future. But here it is again for sale at $120 while we get daily articles on the destruction awaiting the CRE markets.
A simple question: Why question someone else's philanthropic endeavours? And if you are dumb enough to do that, then why not propose your own philanthropic endeavour rather than Monday morning QB'ing somebody else's?
Anyway, I dont have the talent for being bullish on the 10 year when its yielding 2.70%. I leave that to the broken clocks that are right twice a day.
jas-
i dont get it - everyone here (basically) agrees with your thesis.
why the anger and condescension?
June SPY puts? Wow Eric, you're quite a bear.
REBear - Maybe they can use Blackrock's idea of issuing 100 Y Ts. A family/person is obligated for 100 years - unless they die first in which case, the underlying collateral goes to the USG.
only a 2% pop?
June SPY puts? Wow Eric, you're quite a bear.
Pricewise, the Jun 55 and Mar 60 are pretty close, and I like having the extra three months to be right.
lets see
check the risk
a 10 year treasury at less than 3% (demoninated in US$) hahaha USD!
or gold
ok , ok, lets calculate
hummm 13 trillion annual gdp
minus 50 trillion unfunded liabilities
divided by 8 trillion dollar annual bailout
reduced by half to one trillion dollar trade deficit
raised to the power of 1 billion dollars a day expenditures up front for two wars,
with twice that in the wings for soldiers medical care and military material replacement costs...
equals.... oh shit did i remember to carry the inflation?
ok ill take door number 3
turtle that was worth staying late for ....
Eric, can't say i disagree with your outlook
How about a Tanta Pig calendar with a line or two of her comments for each month?
or maybe one of her more uber definitions?
Good idea, Ella.
"TDBD writes:
Germany considers Consumption Coupons.... $632 per citizen"
Ain't gonna happen. Too much political pressure against that, and Merkel is against it too. Germans are cold-hearted bastards when it comes to giving their citizens the impression they are being coddled.
Hell, German officials sell off their grandmothers to get money into the official coffers. They are selling Knut the polar bear (Berlin Zoo mega star!!) -- the latest victim of the crunch. The zoo says that it cannot afford the mega million it would cost to build him a new compound and provide a mate.
Hi guys.
I mentioned the mugs, ball caps and buttons to Image Mark-it. The "soft items" like the cap are easy to embroider and they are looking at it. On the others - we'll keep you posted.
One of the original designs was a "crying towel". Since it took on a new meaning I pulled it.
I also mentioned "Tanta_Vive" for the back of the ball cap.
I appreciate all of you who have purchased items so far and your kind words on most of them. It was a little crazy yesterday for awhile but we only have 12 or so with sizing questions. One trade desk purchased 11 convexity shirts. If they want to take a picture and send it to CR I would love to see it.
I'd love to see any of them.
I saw the posts about "if I ever see a Tanta item you'll get a hug".
Ditto for me.