Nemo....How can the rally monkey get to work when you have him posting 1st everytime? This mess is all your fault by keeping the rally monkey pent up to do your bidding!....
Welcome to the cautionary tale of the Global Poker Tour.
The GPT had humble beginnings. Back about 11 years ago or so, a few high-stakes Texas Hold em aficionados got together in a dark room somewhere and began to hatch a plan that would change the poker world forever. Their birth child: The GPT.
It was a simple proposition really. The founders---well Blithely refer to them as the Masters for lack of a better moniker---the founders each called a couple of their friends from Vegas and Monte Carlo and Macau and planned to meet one evening for a game of poker. They rented a room at the local Holiday Inn Express, rented a table and some chips, and they were ready to rock!
So, on this pretty starlit evening in 1997, all of the players descended upon room #1600 at the Holiday Inn and the game was on. And it was a good game, with lots of big pots and exciting show downs. And the game went on well into the wee hours of the morning. And by dawn everyone was pretty beat and hungry and in need of fresh air, and so they decided to settle up their accounts and come back tomorrow night for another game.
Now, one of the really groovy parts of the new GPT was that none of the players actually had to bring cash with them. The Masters figured that all were good for their markers, and besides, carrying a lot of cash around aint so safe these days.
So at the end of the inaugural game of the GPT, over 3 million dollars had changed hands. (Well you know what I mean. 3 Million chips we'll say.) The big winner this night was poker giant HP who had won over a million dollars in chips! Many others hovered around the break even point, and only AG found himself in the hole over $500,000. Of course, no debts were settled on this evening. The game would continue tomorrow, and trust among fellow gamblers runs as deep as blood.
Night 2 arrived, and 8 more players joined the game! And so the Masters went out and rented another table, and a few more poker chips, and took a bigger room at the Holiday Inn Express, and as the clock struck 8pm it was game on! And what a spectacular night it was for poker lovers!! Over 15 million dollars gambled, with BB finishing the night as the big winner with over 5 million in chips. Again, most players hovered close to even, and only 2 or 3 players had losses over 1 million $$$.
Again, as this was a small game and everyone at the tables was considered good for their debts, no actual money exchanged hands. A few IOUs were scratched out on napkins and torn pieces of dominoes pizza boxes, but that was primarily just for references sake. The GPT was off to a rousing start, and the game was just beginning!!
Well as Im sure you can imagine, the GPT really took off. Soon games were organized all over the country, and no longer were mere rooms at the local Holiday Inn Express sufficiently large enough---now we were talking ballrooms, and even auditoriums and arenas for the really huge events. And thousands of players had joined the ranks of the GPT brethren, and tens of BILLIONS of dollars was changing hands. And so the Masters met one night and penned a few rules to keep things running smoothly.
The 1st rule of the GPT was that all members were considered absolutely good for their debts, and since the 2nd rule of the GPT was that no member could cash out and leave the tour without the permission of the other members, none of the tens of billions of dollars in debts and winnings needed to take place in cash. It was perfect! And all of the IOUs and markers and debts were recorded in a central repository run by the Masters---and all of the players trusted the Masters as they trusted their own family members. In fact, the GPT became a sort of surrogate family for the members, and loyalty ran deep.
So one day the Masters were discussing how they could grow the GPT without adding too many more actual players. You see, the games had gotten so unwieldy and massive---sometimes involving 10,000 players or more---that entire city blocks had to be rented out to accommodate not only the players but also the growing crowds of spectators.
And then it hit them! The Masters decided that they would create two new parts of the GPT: one would be a method by which spectators could wager with each other on who each thought would win the tournament, survive longer than another player, or even win a given hand. The second would be a program by which players AND side-betting spectators could purchase insurance against their debts just in case some member of the GPT or some member of the spectator group broke rule #2 and asked for cash instead of the usual and expected IOU.
Well this idea took off like a jet plane! Soon Trillions and trillions of dollars were being bet and swapped by players and spectators and insurers and side-bettors. The excitement was palpable, and the GPT became the worlds highest grossing institution. My gosh, at one point it was estimated that the Global Poker Tour was worth almost half a QUADRILLION dollars!!! And from such innocent beginnings, just 11 years prior.
But as we must remember, the 2 rules of the GPT were sacrosanct. All of the transactions were accounted for through IOUs and promissory notes and contracts and everyone in the GPT abided by these rules, and all grooved along quite swimmingly .that is, until the fateful day. The fateful day to which I refer----it makes me shudder to remember that awful day---that fateful day was the day that Bobby Lehman, one of the tours rising stars, realized that he couldnt pay some of his bills and he broke the 2nd rule! He went to his friend and fellow star, Franky Goldman, and told Franky that, as unfortunate as it was, he needed to cash in on Frankys IOU to Bobby----an IOU totally 22 billion dollars.
Franky was stunned. Franky didnt have 22 billion dollars in cash!! The only way Franky could pay Bobby was to find his buddy Tommy Stearns and demand the 56 billion dollars that Tommy owed Franky.
Well I neednt tell you what happened next. Twas a sad day in not only the life of the GPT, but also for the whole wide world. The avalanche of margin calls and requests for payment of debts and requests for payments of side bets and demands for payments of insurance policies exploded. And while theoretically the whole thing added up to zero---so like many people thought it wasnt a big deal because everyone could just get together and exchange all the money and everything would work out---there were lots of flies in the ointment.
First it was discovered that the clearing house created by the Masters for all of these IOUs hadnt really done a great job of accounting for everything. There were lots of holes in the books and strange entries and missing pages. Second of all, the web of IOUs and debts was so tangled and so huge, that there was no way for everyone to be able to work out their debts with everyone else simultaneously and in a way that would leave everyone back at zero. Thirdly, a lot of players had used their IOU winnings as collateral to buy stuff like houses and yachts and airplanes, and so the IOUs really didnt represent the zero-sum dynamic that everyone said it did. And fourthly, some of the players and side-bettors and insurers were more entangled than others---just like OHare airport is more entangled with flights that the airport in West Lebanon, NH----and so lots the more entangled players ended up getting so overwhelmed that they----I hate to say it---took their own lives and left all of their counterparties holding IOUs that had no way of being paid.
What a disaster this was. What had begun so innocently and had been so small at first became the engine that ended up bringing the entire worlds economic system tumbling down. And all of the leaders of the world got together and decided that they still wanted the GPT to exist, because it made them really really rich, but that they could never ever let anyone break rule #2 again! And so there would be no more Tommy Lehmans. Anytime a player was broke and needed cash for some reason, the governments of the world would give them the money and the people of the world would pay back the government through taxes. And that was the Global Poker Tour could survive and live on forever! How grand!
HISTORY
1.Margin calls on hedge funds
2.Sudden contraction of global market liquidity
3.Huge sales to meet margin calls
4.Trillions of dollars of value wiped off balance sheets
5.High levels of hedgie redemptions
6.More sales of assets
7.Collapse in global prices for equities, debt and commodities.
8.Dollar stronger because lots of funds in London struggling to meet their margin calls in New York.
9.Fed doubles balance sheet
10.Taxpayer largesse doled out to Wall Street
11.Bailouts of autos, airlines, etc. wherever (and ONLY wherever) Wall Street is at risk from CDS liabilities
12.Huge expansion in the monetary base
13.Banks begin to accumulate massive reserves
14.Incoming margin cash (and a lot of other cash) parked in Treasuries
15.Treasury prices up; yields down.
16.25 November: Bloomberg reports US bailout totals 7.7 trillion
FUTURE
17.Margin calls end
18.Deleveraging stops
19.Reduced demand for dollars
20.Reduced need to park cash in US Treasuries
21.US domestic demand very low and imports greatly reduced
22.US trade deficit declines quickly
23.Exporters to US dont need to need to buy so many US Treasuries
24.Bank reserves used to buy crashed assets, many outside the US
25.Banks start to sell US Treasuries to finance these purchases
26.Net sales of US Treasuries prices falter then fall
27.US cant sell enough Treasuries and starts to monetize debt
28.Dollar starts to fall
29.Global equity markets rise
30.Commodity prices rise
31.Supply-side shock in the US leads to shortages
32.US prices rise and US govt. cant fudge inflation numbers enough
33.US citizens panic
34.Hyperinflation of prices of consumption goods in the USA
35.Dollar falls
36.IMF overwhelmed
37.Exports to USA reduced even further
38.Global economy shrinks again, worse than ever
39.Global depression
My crystal ball is quite cloudy. The Fed and treasury have taken us to places that nobody has ever been (and left alive) - like the winning contestants on the "Running Man" with Arnold & Richard Dawson. But to those with the tin foil hats on I would ask, which is worse:
The stimulus doesn't work, or
The stimulus works and we deal with new issues as they arise?
I am hoping for number 2, so I can find other uses for the seed, chickens, guns and fuel I have stockpiled.
Here is a little song I wrote
You might want to sing it note for note
Don't worry be happy
In every life we have some trouble
When you worry you make it double
Don't worry, be happy......
Ain't got no place to lay your head
Somebody came and took your bed
Don't worry, be happy
The land lord say your rent is late
He may have to litigate
Don't worry, be happy
Lood at me I am happy
Don't worry, be happy
Here I give you my phone number
When you worry call me
I make you happy
Don't worry, be happy
Ain't got no cash, ain't got no style
Ain't got not girl to make you smile
But don't worry be happy
Cause when you worry
Your face will frown
And that will bring everybody down
So don't worry, be happy (now).....
The two wage earner family is in deep trouble during this period of demand side layoffs. How many mortgage payments are based on the wife's ability to bring home a good weekly paycheck? How about those multi-car families with all those leased vehicles along with the boat and RV?
Not much left to layoff on the factory floor but the rest of the overhead will be getting a good haircut and women who have entered the work force in large numbers represent a big chuck of coming layoffs.
OT from last thread:
Norm Chumpsky writes:
The problem with Blair is that she likes to air the dirty laundry in public.
Norm Chumpsky | 12.04.08 - 11:23 am
Since my cynic mode is on, is Blair just pandering to us plebs with her assault of the Wall Street Heist, is she trying to protect the integrity of the FDIC, both, neither?
I find it odd that she is doing one thing that would instill confidence--IMHO--and she is going to get $h!*-canned for it?
Maybe I should start tanking my credit to speed up my PM, ammo, safe, rice, and gun purchases...
... women who have entered the work force in large numbers represent a big chuck of coming layoffs.
I disagree. Layoffs will favor women as there still isn't full wage parity. We have entered the great leveling for wages between East and West at the worst time of all when we are just starting to experience the effects of the commoditization of labor.
People with weak English skills are also the first to go. Next are arguementative people and people who take more than their share of their boss' day for any reason.
Not that I've ever seen that personally. I just have a funny feeling that it happens.
Ya know, that BDI achieved a double peak just like the US equity indexes over the past 15 months. Mirrors the credit crisis pretty well. The data only goes back 5 years. Still 12k to 670 is extreme. But 670 is closer to historic average than 12k.
KANSAS CITY, MOPresident Bush sustained serious head injuries, massive internal bleeding, and a broken left leg Monday morning after being accidentally dragged behind the presidential motorcade for a period of 15 minutes. According to Secret Service spokesman Ed Donovan, Bush's necktie became caught in the trunk of the motorcade's second vehicle at 4:13 p.m., shortly before the driver accelerated. The president was dragged down 175th Street for 26 blocks and through four stoplights, leaving a trail of blood more than a mile long. Upon hearing shouts emanating from behind his vehicle, the driver abruptly applied the brakes, causing the third car in the motorcade to run over the president's left leg at a speed of approximately 25 miles per hour. President Bush is resting comfortably in Bethesda Naval Hospital
Ordinary retail sales seem to be recovering from their Sept-Oct bungee-jump (but see ISM services index yesterday), whereas consumers are still cliff-diving w/r/t large durable goods purchases (anyone wanna buy a car?)
The government could buy “delinquent or at-risk mortgages in bulk,” then refinance them through the federal Hope for Homeowners program, Bernanke said in a speech at a Fed conference in Washington. Congress could also help reduce loan rates and lender insurance premiums, he said.
No UPS man driving in my neighberhood. Nor do I see him on the road. Every year, by now, the delivery guys would be driving up and down my street. parking and looking for addresses. I have not seen one yet.
mal, they're designed to go TU after a year. The last time I had a phone last until the end of my contract was about ten years ago. The one I got in February was shot by September, luckily it was still under warranty, they usually wait til the week after warranty is up. I barely even use the thing so it was certainly not abused.
This Obama stuff gets tedious - you can't renounce citizenship as a child, and the process, since the Vietnam War, at least according to the vice consul in Frankfurt, takes several days - you can't simply walk into a consulate/embassy, drop off your passport, and then leave as a no longer American citizen. Instead, you have to demonstrate the intent, then after a waiting period (3 days to my memory), you meet again with the consulate/embassy officials, who then decide whether you are indeed no longer an American.
That's right, the government in the end has final say of whether or not you can renounce your citizenship. Ironic, in its way.
And even the way the headline is written is deceptive - 'Suit contesting Barack Obama's citizenship heads to U.S. Supreme Court Friday.' Actually, a more accurate headline would be along the lines of 'Supreme Court will decide whether another suit of the thousands it receives on various grounds will be worth its time to do more than flatly reject.
Selling stocks is not a sign of panic any more than buying stocks. The 'panic' argument is a shallow explanation of any downward movement, while upward movements are always explained as being due to 'fundamentals'.
I am and will continue to be short- the 'panic' (aka reality) will set in again.
Kashkari Testimony Before the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government
amidst all the Pravda, a snippet-
Treasury released a term sheet for privately-held institutions, and we have provided even more streamlined terms to facilitate capital investment into community development financial institutions. Regulators are already receiving and reviewing many applications from these private depositories, another important source of credit in our economy.
In a few years from now after Benny and CONgress have managed to blow up the bond market, destroy the dollar, dumped Medicare and SS, plus raised taxes threw the roof to pay for this foolishness these will be looked at as the good old days.
Some executives in the group of 130 recipients will get more than $500,000 to stay through 2009, about 200 percent of their salaries, said the person, who declined to be named because the information hasn’t been publicly disclosed. An undetermined number of lower-paid employees will also get cash awards to dissuade them from quitting, the person said.
Credit Union teller(Lousville) told me that their extras(CDs,loans,ect.Good rates on CDs and loans)has been almost zero for last two months.They have the money and are in great shape,but nobody wants to do anything.This is a credit union made up of mostly active and retired GE workers.
President-Elect Obama either wasn't born a U.S. citizen or that he later renounced his citizenship in Indonesia, as claimed in a lawsuit by former oppenent Alan Keyes! Keyes, himself, is a Muslim.
Stratonovich calculus | 12.04.08 - 11:46 am | #--------
Hardly a news flash, suits contesting his citizenship were filed beginning in August.
I don't think it really matters much. The American have spoken and no court is going to change the will of the people (again).
Ordinary retail sales seem to be recovering from their Sept-Oct bungee-jump
ndd | 12.04.08 - 11:48 am | #
uhhh - what retail sales rebound you talking about?
Retailers U.S. Sales Tumble in Worst Month in Four Decades
By Heather Burke
Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers tumbled in November, the worst monthly performance in almost four decades, after the Wall Street meltdown caused consumers to postpone shopping until the Black Friday holiday-sales kickoff. U.S. Retail Sales Fall in Worst Drop in Four Decades (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Happens all the time here in California, courts overturning ballot initiatives that passed by 60% plus on outlawing benefits for illegals, stopping gay marriage, etc.
It would be just rewards for the libs if SOCUS stepped in on this.
Elliott Wave folks said last night that if the S&P did not break through 880 today, it was hard downhill from here today, to below recent low of 740 or so.
We'll see if they are right.
The news is overwhelmingly bad. I presume it has to bring down social mood --> stock market sell-off and crash.
" Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Japans $268 million Ibaraki Airport is on schedule to open for business in March 2010. The hard part will be persuading an airline to fly there.
The government and Ibaraki prefecture, home to 3 million people, are paying for the airport north of Tokyo, which wont have train services and is a half-hour drive from Ibarakis capital, Mito. Japan Airlines Corp. and All Nippon Airways Co., which operate 90 percent of flights in the country, dont plan to use it."
With a little effort, one could find hundreds of similar projects in Japan. This is partly why fiscal policy failed to prevent Japan's "lost decade." Somehow we have to ensure that US fiscal stimulus doesn't go down the same kind of black hole.
I wonder if the top mgt at AIG has looked at unemployment figures lately.
They could give each of the employees eligible for this "bonus" a 50% cut in base pay and most would stick around. There are no other places for them to go.
Chatted with the president of a regional bank yesterday. He said they wrote $7 million in new loans in November. Normal month: $170-$200 million.
Our city (Bellingham, WA) building department reported they received zero building permit applications for residential construction in November--they said they could not remember that happening before.
At least when you reach zero, you can feel comfortable calling the bottom.
tennesee guy earlier mentioned baltic dry index...a most telling indicator and under appreciated by the press...it suggests nothing less than a depression right now...that it already has begun....the decline of oil comes just as every commerical shipper in the world is busy anchoring their ships...steel output is expected to be cut by 40% next yr..this is real-economy devestation..this is a depression...i just dont see how long the dollar can remain so well-bid though...in 1930's it was gold so i can see why they were scarce for 13 yrs back then..now, its been scarce since july..but its just paper, not gold no more..easy to make...tempting to make when they are so scarce and when their rates of interest are south of 3%...they will be made...they already have been made..there is a consequence to this..we know what it is.
Layoffs will favor women as there still isn't full wage parity.
the "wage parity" argument has serious flaws. the collected data that people often cite does not repesent similar jobs. they found that the median woman's salary is around 75% of the median male's salary...
but it is not corrected by job title, hours worked, etc.
for example , in my job women make on average 80% of what men make. however, women also work 80% less (many are part time) and have worked less years due to childrearing activities. (they work, then take a year off due to pregnancy/maternity leave, etc)
when we compare equal titled employees who are full time and who have been in the labor force for the same amount of time the wage disparity disappears.
women may take the brunt of the layoffs because they are part time or leave work more often than their male counterparts (since women tend to be the primary caregivers).
but the key is the PART TIME and the LEAVING WORK... not the sex of the person. those people who are often sick or have to care for a child or who need maternity/paternity leave or other time off requests are the ones that will get the axe.
I'm guessing hours worked per employee will go up during this recession.
shelves will be barren in a year's time..not full (like 1930s)...the 30 cent an hr chinese labor wont deliver their goods so easily to us in the future...and who thinks opec will continue sending us their precious oil for under $40 a barrell? they wont do it...thats a fact...oil will become scarce even if, at nymex, it trades at $43, we will have to pay far more at the station and deal with shortages...
$30 billion sounds like a small number these days, but if GS is right about that being the amount of shovel-ready infrastructure projects it will still lead to some good employment opportunities. Not a bad idea to look at where these are and what skills are most needed.
Last year my co-worker took time off to have her 3rd child in 5 years. (guess who gets to take up her slack? for no extra pay?) We had a little mini shower for her, as usual. Am I a horrible human being because I felt like giving her a box of condoms?
The worse the numbers, the more aggressively the government has to attempt to decouple the dollar and the markets from reality, so the bigger the rally.
For every 100k jobs we lose we should add 100 to the DOW.
Engineered insanity.
Brought to you by the US Treasury and Federal Reserve.
YOu're right in that the key to job loss will be overall "dependability" and continuing to show up.
I'm the one who's the swing person for the kids since I chose to stay home years ago. Utterly stunned my office since a female co-worker was pregnant and she stayed while I left for the kids.
Someone in authority was heard to comment that I'd driven a stake through my future career aspirations since I wasn't "dependable".
So those who take unscheduled time out will be on the hook ahead of the others.
I just spoke to a bill trader who noted that a large chunk of the bill list is trading at zero percent. He mentioned a point that I had forgotten but is worth noting. Bills always trade well in December because at year end there is demand for them as investors of every ilk dress up their balance sheets. He has seen that demand to a far greater extent than normal.
He says that given all that has transpired this year there will be enormous demand for bill through the entire month of December. He has seen demand from an eclectic group of investors from around the globe. He expects the treasury to announce shortly a series of cash management bills which would total about $100 billion.
In his opinion if they do not issue bills will scream through zero.
So get used to these low rates they are here for a while [hat tip]
Sounds like more liquidity trap to me...
ps Nemo thanks for linking me to this site. I love it....
Opec will ship but it will all be current production - investment that was made to pay off at prices south of $43/bbl - what won't occur is new production investment, or one hell of lot less and this will play out for all commodities.
When the light in the tunnel starts looking less trainlike and more daylike, there will be precious little ability to ramp up commodity production...and that is just the metals and energy. rich has posted about the ag commodities and that does not look promising.
"This isn't intended to be exhaustive - just a sample of the headlines."
Dickens, "Please sir, can I have some less?" (ref to bad economic news)
Man, I hate gruel - gruel breakfast, gruel sanwiches for lunch, and damn gruel leftovers for dinner. Well, at least I'll lose some weight.
Seriously... I don't understand why women who are continually pregnant are lionized, while the unmarried employee is expected to take up her slack in the workplace, for no extra pay.
Barley- Just playing with CR Companion rating system. And aren't you good at "Copy" ? I seem to remember your very detailed critiques to CR and also that budding cartoonist.
I've noticed this too. Some of this, but not nearly all, seems to be loss of market share to the USPS as cost trumps service and speed. All of the online stores I visit have made the shift on everything except one- and two-day shipping.
A related anecdote: last week I placed two orders with Amazon using their Super Saver Shipping, which ordinarily means waiting a week or two for them to get around to filling the order. This time both were shipped the next morning--apparently they don't have anything to prioritize ahead of the free shipping.
With the crash of the dollar (next year?), oil is gonna cost a bundle a barrel. It will be priced in CHF or yen or gold, all of which will be terribly expensive in dollars.
They can, in the short-term, screw up the relationships but ultimately they have to contend with simple rationality.
The longer they destroy the common sense components, the more likely the destruction occurs with an ultimate "reboot" based upon some rationality and common sense.
Having been badly burned once, the average person is going to look hard and if they don't see it, it won't fly.
Hey nice observation - I just received a book on super saver (thanks mal for the rec on Tainter, just wading in, you sound cranky, get drunk/laid) - it did arrive more quickly than in the past, particularly for the time of year...
And even the way the headline is written is deceptive - 'Suit contesting Barack Obama's citizenship heads to U.S. Supreme Court Friday.' Actually, a more accurate headline would be along the lines of 'Supreme Court will decide whether another suit of the thousands it receives on various grounds will be worth its time to do more than flatly reject.'
rent_to_own | 12.04.08 - 11:56 am | #
Isn't that how the news is made these days? Concoct some ramshackle "plan", put it in the mail to Treasury or your Congressman, then call CNBC or Fox, or if you don't have those resources just issue a press release about how you support the plan being considered (i.e., languishing in an inbox somewhere).
"Dan" (by the way, love the name) - great post - I would change one little thing:
"Franky was stunned. FRANKLY, Franky didnt have 22 billion dollars in cash!!"
He also didn't have 22 billion in credit like his friends Citiguy and AIGgie.
I've been in South America for the past 40 days. It is so good to come back to CR and its Haloscan comment lines. A dose of reality is like a fresh cup of coffee!
BTW: If anyone is looking for those home builders who left a legacy of unpurchased homes and unpaid construction loans, I found a bunch in Chile bragging about leaving the USA financial cesspool beind them along with "all their liabilities." I guess they'll find out soon enough if there are any economic safe havens left in this world.
Like I said musical chairs. I'm willing to wager you dont have any faith in the company or the long term out look of the current sturcture. I'm thinking you're more looking for 25% over 2 years?
Here's how private equity groups put together their business plans:
NEWMAN: I don't understand. You fill an eighteen-wheeler?
KRAMER: No, an eighteen-wheeler's no good. Too much overhead. You got
permits, weigh-stations, tolls... Look, you're way outta your league.
NEWMAN: I wanna learn. I want to know why.
NEWMAN: So we could put the bottles in a U-haul. You know, go lean and
mean?
KRAMER: Newman, it's a dead-end, c'mon.
NEWMAN: Damn!
Frustrated, he sits back. He notices a framed photograph of his mother.
A thought occurs.
NEWMAN (V.O.): Oh, Mother's Day. (inspiration strikes) Wait a second.
Mother's Day?! He starts typing figures into the adding machine rapidly. He mouths numbers to himself, shrugging as he makes estimates. When he finishes he tears the paper strip from the machine, compares it to figures on his pad.
NEWMAN: (triumphant) Yessss!
In celebration he swigs from a bottle of soda.
NEWMAN: Ahaha!
Newman hurries up to Kramer's door and hammers on it with his fist. He
waits a few seconds, then impatiently hammers again.
NEWMAN: Come on Kramer!
The door opens to reveal Kramer midway through a shave, holding a
razor, with foam on his face.
KRAMER: Wha...?
NEWMAN: It's the truck, Kramer. The truck!
KRAMER: Look, Newman, I told you to let this thing go.
NEWMAN: No, no, no, no no. Listen to me. Most days, the post office
sends one truckload of mail to the second domestic regional sorting facility in Sagenaw, Michigan.
KRAMER: (interested) Uh-huh.
NEWMAN: But, on the week before holidays, we see a surge. On
Valentine's Day, we send two trucks. On Christmas, four, packed to the brim. And tomorrow, if history is any guide, will see some spillover into a fifth truck.
KRAMER: (realisation) Mother's Day.
NEWMAN: The mother of all mail days. And guess who signed up for the truck.
KRAMER: A free truck? Oh boy, that completely changes our cost structure. Our G and A goes down fifty percent.
NEWMAN: (excited) We carry a coupla bags of mail, and the rest is ours!
KRAMER: Newman, you magnificent bastard, you did it!
NEWMAN: (triumph) Let the collecting begin! They embrace joyfully.
"Our city (Bellingham, WA) building department reported they received zero building permit applications for residential construction in November--they said they could not remember that happening before.
At least when you reach zero, you can feel comfortable calling the bottom."
"Many ordinary Germans actively participated in this process, denouncing neighbors as "asocial" elements for associating with Jews or for "suspicious" activities. Denunciations derived from a variety of motivations personal grudges, economic self-interest, or ideological commitment with the full knowledge of what would happen to the victims."
"Our city (Bellingham, WA) building department reported they received zero building permit applications for residential construction in November--they said they could not remember that happening before.
At least when you reach zero, you can feel comfortable calling the bottom."
Sure. Opened permits which are allowed to expire without being acted on. Each abandoned permit is less than zero in a zero environment.
Foreclosure are due to go from under 40k in Miami-Dade County to about 100k for 2008 according to the Clerk's office when we tried to follow up to see why no publication happened yet. This time I represent the Plaintiff.
Concernd Observer...I figure 40 days in South America would be a fresh dose of reality. As bad as things are in the USA, we could be living in Argentina.
My bond trading family member says all that needs to happen to fix this financial calamity is for the gov't to get rid of mark-to-market completely. According to him that will be the magic pill that heals all that ails us. He went on to use all the buzzwords like "mustard seed", "free-markets", "deregulation" blah blah blah.
Any thoughts on how to respond to the mark-to-market is evil thesis?
Flim--admit there is a certain minor aount of truth in m to m is evil, BUT you can't make any money on that assumption, since the few securities which will pay over the years--but which look now like they won't be paid--will be completely overwhelmed by the non-payers.
some investor guy writes:
"Our city (Bellingham, WA) building department reported they received zero building permit applications for residential construction in November--they said they could not remember that happening before.
At least when you reach zero, you can feel comfortable calling the bottom."
Ahhh, your optimism is refreshing these days.
I see good news. This means the City can layoff lots of expensive staff with no reduction in public service. Win-win.
I just left a meeting at work. Part of the discussion was the rise in fraud cases we are seeing. People are trashing their lives over 10,000 dollars.
A combination of two things. The obvious one, which is bills, and no MEW. The second is that cash flows, etc. are getting the scrutiny they should have always had.
These are not your stereotypical bad people. Usually first time offenders.
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) said: "Elliott Wave folks said last night that if the S&P did not break through 880 today, it was hard downhill from here today, to below recent low of 740 or so.
We'll see if they are right.
The news is overwhelmingly bad. I presume it has to bring down social mood --> stock market sell-off and crash."
JMO, but if we've learned anything from this blog it's that the mainstream media is one of the last ones to "get it" (right in there with me, the Fed, and the NAR). The almost universally bad news now is more likely to signal a turning point for the stock market (even if it's only a relatively brief one) than the "all clear" sign for additional cliff-diving.
I've been tracking mutual fund flow data for several years, with data from here:
In October there was the largest outflow from stock funds (as a percentage of total assets) since July, 2002. This is an actual indication of what people did with their money, as opposed to trying to subjectively gauge what they might or might not do based on current news headlines. Stock investors panicked in October (with massive redemptions), and the resulting market low was retested within the past several days.
Maybe we've seen "the" low and maybe not, but it looks like the easy short-selling money has been made and the bears might have to be a bit more nimble.
Someone in authority was heard to comment that I'd driven a stake through my future career aspirations since I wasn't "dependable".
exactly. my goal wasn't to make this a woman vs man thing. more of a "who is ready to give 110% and do a lot of extra work for no pay" sort of thing.
whoever is responsible for childrearing (or taking care of aging parents) etc is the one who will get laid off.
protracted periods of time off can sometimes never be made up later on. it's just like when the star running back gets injured. if his replacement shines the previous star is in trouble.
likewise: those who can't be 110% due to other life responsibilities (illness, childrearing, aging parents, transfer of spouse, etc) are on the chopping block first IMO
Could anybody explain what is going on in the long bond market? Is the government actively involved here? Are they trying to chase everybody back into the equity markets since long term return looks better there?
Insurers and Pension Funds are getting hurt bad here. They will have to look elsewhere for the return they need to cover their liabilities.
Flim Flam asked: "Any thoughts on how to respond to the mark-to-market is evil thesis?"
You didn't say which side of the issue to respond to.
My response is this hypothetical: I own 1,000 window air-conditioners in December and can't sell any of them except at prices that would bankrupt me, but could sell all of them at regular price next Summer. Should my existing inventory be marked-to-market at bankruptcy prices?
Now imagine that I own mortgage derivatives instead. This time of year is perhaps the slowest for the housing market (never mind the "credit crunch"). Should my inventory of mortgage derivatives whose price is based on housing values and sales be marked-to-market for December, at the worst possible time? Wouldn't it be more fair and logical to average it out over a quarter, two quarters, or even an entire year? Should there be some adjustment for the credit conditions, since they clearly impact the value?
It might be personally satisfying to say "Let them all burn for their sins of greed and stupidity!" but there's another side to the story.
"Idiot congress can't relate construction job losses to auto demand."
Or job losses in any sector, for that matter.
Any measures aimed at improving this situation that focus on the supply side, which as of now includes pretty much all measures taken and most that are planned under the Obama administration, are positively and unequivocally doomed.
They may even make the situation worse- because increased supply of anything (cars, houses, etc.) adds to downward pressure on prices.
On the plus side, the sooner prices move inline with the average global wage the sooner markets may recover.
Saw George Will on Sunday morning show.
"94% of mortgages are on time. 94% of people who want jobs have them. This whole thing is out of perspective."
Therefore George must have a "formula number." What is George's "right number"?
How many defaulted mortgages is the "problem number?" How many out of work job hunters is the "problem number."
If the current stats are OK then George and his ilk - (re: people of means with health insurance and money in the bank, retirement plans and social connections)should fess up and tell us what the OMGWAITN (oh my god we are in trouble now) stats are according to his formula. Just sayi
My response is this hypothetical: I own 1,000 window air-conditioners in December and can't sell any of them except at prices that would bankrupt me, but could sell all of them at regular price next Summer. Should my existing inventory be marked-to-market at bankruptcy prices?
Now imagine that I own mortgage derivatives instead. This time of year is perhaps the slowest for the housing market (never mind the "credit crunch"). Should my inventory of mortgage derivatives whose price is based on housing values and sales be marked-to-market for December, at the worst possible time? Wouldn't it be more fair and logical to average it out over a quarter, two quarters, or even an entire year? Should there be some adjustment for the credit conditions, since they clearly impact the value?
MBS are based on existing mortgages on how they perform, so yeah since you can't sell a highly inflated house it's going to be foreclosed and the bond will suffer, but this point would be moot if the borrower could actually pay the mortgage.
And if you can make it to next summer, then valuing the a/c at BK prices would lower your inventory tax. But people are confident summer will come and would reasonably not value them at zero. There is no such confidence about mortgages. How about if you have to sell because you need the operating capital? Then yes, you go BK and that's what those assets are valued at, happens all the time.
Should be good for +1000 on the Dow.
"Bottoming process"
yes
Nemo....How can the rally monkey get to work when you have him posting 1st everytime? This mess is all your fault by keeping the rally monkey pent up to do your bidding!....
bah! nemo!
yikes. whocoodanode...
The Global Poker Tour: An Allegory
Welcome to the cautionary tale of the Global Poker Tour.
The GPT had humble beginnings. Back about 11 years ago or so, a few high-stakes Texas Hold em aficionados got together in a dark room somewhere and began to hatch a plan that would change the poker world forever. Their birth child: The GPT.
It was a simple proposition really. The founders---well Blithely refer to them as the Masters for lack of a better moniker---the founders each called a couple of their friends from Vegas and Monte Carlo and Macau and planned to meet one evening for a game of poker. They rented a room at the local Holiday Inn Express, rented a table and some chips, and they were ready to rock!
So, on this pretty starlit evening in 1997, all of the players descended upon room #1600 at the Holiday Inn and the game was on. And it was a good game, with lots of big pots and exciting show downs. And the game went on well into the wee hours of the morning. And by dawn everyone was pretty beat and hungry and in need of fresh air, and so they decided to settle up their accounts and come back tomorrow night for another game.
Now, one of the really groovy parts of the new GPT was that none of the players actually had to bring cash with them. The Masters figured that all were good for their markers, and besides, carrying a lot of cash around aint so safe these days.
So at the end of the inaugural game of the GPT, over 3 million dollars had changed hands. (Well you know what I mean. 3 Million chips we'll say.) The big winner this night was poker giant HP who had won over a million dollars in chips! Many others hovered around the break even point, and only AG found himself in the hole over $500,000. Of course, no debts were settled on this evening. The game would continue tomorrow, and trust among fellow gamblers runs as deep as blood.
Night 2 arrived, and 8 more players joined the game! And so the Masters went out and rented another table, and a few more poker chips, and took a bigger room at the Holiday Inn Express, and as the clock struck 8pm it was game on! And what a spectacular night it was for poker lovers!! Over 15 million dollars gambled, with BB finishing the night as the big winner with over 5 million in chips. Again, most players hovered close to even, and only 2 or 3 players had losses over 1 million $$$.
Again, as this was a small game and everyone at the tables was considered good for their debts, no actual money exchanged hands. A few IOUs were scratched out on napkins and torn pieces of dominoes pizza boxes, but that was primarily just for references sake. The GPT was off to a rousing start, and the game was just beginning!!
Well as Im sure you can imagine, the GPT really took off. Soon games were organized all over the country, and no longer were mere rooms at the local Holiday Inn Express sufficiently large enough---now we were talking ballrooms, and even auditoriums and arenas for the really huge events. And thousands of players had joined the ranks of the GPT brethren, and tens of BILLIONS of dollars was changing hands. And so the Masters met one night and penned a few rules to keep things running smoothly.
The 1st rule of the GPT was that all members were considered absolutely good for their debts, and since the 2nd rule of the GPT was that no member could cash out and leave the tour without the permission of the other members, none of the tens of billions of dollars in debts and winnings needed to take place in cash. It was perfect! And all of the IOUs and markers and debts were recorded in a central repository run by the Masters---and all of the players trusted the Masters as they trusted their own family members. In fact, the GPT became a sort of surrogate family for the members, and loyalty ran deep.
So one day the Masters were discussing how they could grow the GPT without adding too many more actual players. You see, the games had gotten so unwieldy and massive---sometimes involving 10,000 players or more---that entire city blocks had to be rented out to accommodate not only the players but also the growing crowds of spectators.
And then it hit them! The Masters decided that they would create two new parts of the GPT: one would be a method by which spectators could wager with each other on who each thought would win the tournament, survive longer than another player, or even win a given hand. The second would be a program by which players AND side-betting spectators could purchase insurance against their debts just in case some member of the GPT or some member of the spectator group broke rule #2 and asked for cash instead of the usual and expected IOU.
Well this idea took off like a jet plane! Soon Trillions and trillions of dollars were being bet and swapped by players and spectators and insurers and side-bettors. The excitement was palpable, and the GPT became the worlds highest grossing institution. My gosh, at one point it was estimated that the Global Poker Tour was worth almost half a QUADRILLION dollars!!! And from such innocent beginnings, just 11 years prior.
But as we must remember, the 2 rules of the GPT were sacrosanct. All of the transactions were accounted for through IOUs and promissory notes and contracts and everyone in the GPT abided by these rules, and all grooved along quite swimmingly .that is, until the fateful day. The fateful day to which I refer----it makes me shudder to remember that awful day---that fateful day was the day that Bobby Lehman, one of the tours rising stars, realized that he couldnt pay some of his bills and he broke the 2nd rule! He went to his friend and fellow star, Franky Goldman, and told Franky that, as unfortunate as it was, he needed to cash in on Frankys IOU to Bobby----an IOU totally 22 billion dollars.
Franky was stunned. Franky didnt have 22 billion dollars in cash!! The only way Franky could pay Bobby was to find his buddy Tommy Stearns and demand the 56 billion dollars that Tommy owed Franky.
Well I neednt tell you what happened next. Twas a sad day in not only the life of the GPT, but also for the whole wide world. The avalanche of margin calls and requests for payment of debts and requests for payments of side bets and demands for payments of insurance policies exploded. And while theoretically the whole thing added up to zero---so like many people thought it wasnt a big deal because everyone could just get together and exchange all the money and everything would work out---there were lots of flies in the ointment.
First it was discovered that the clearing house created by the Masters for all of these IOUs hadnt really done a great job of accounting for everything. There were lots of holes in the books and strange entries and missing pages. Second of all, the web of IOUs and debts was so tangled and so huge, that there was no way for everyone to be able to work out their debts with everyone else simultaneously and in a way that would leave everyone back at zero. Thirdly, a lot of players had used their IOU winnings as collateral to buy stuff like houses and yachts and airplanes, and so the IOUs really didnt represent the zero-sum dynamic that everyone said it did. And fourthly, some of the players and side-bettors and insurers were more entangled than others---just like OHare airport is more entangled with flights that the airport in West Lebanon, NH----and so lots the more entangled players ended up getting so overwhelmed that they----I hate to say it---took their own lives and left all of their counterparties holding IOUs that had no way of being paid.
What a disaster this was. What had begun so innocently and had been so small at first became the engine that ended up bringing the entire worlds economic system tumbling down. And all of the leaders of the world got together and decided that they still wanted the GPT to exist, because it made them really really rich, but that they could never ever let anyone break rule #2 again! And so there would be no more Tommy Lehmans. Anytime a player was broke and needed cash for some reason, the governments of the world would give them the money and the people of the world would pay back the government through taxes. And that was the Global Poker Tour could survive and live on forever! How grand!
Nemo??
Where else is the Capitalist gonna put their money as they reduce their labor expenditures? The DOW. Get yur rally caps here!
From the London Banker website (comment section):
HISTORY
1.Margin calls on hedge funds
2.Sudden contraction of global market liquidity
3.Huge sales to meet margin calls
4.Trillions of dollars of value wiped off balance sheets
5.High levels of hedgie redemptions
6.More sales of assets
7.Collapse in global prices for equities, debt and commodities.
8.Dollar stronger because lots of funds in London struggling to meet their margin calls in New York.
9.Fed doubles balance sheet
10.Taxpayer largesse doled out to Wall Street
11.Bailouts of autos, airlines, etc. wherever (and ONLY wherever) Wall Street is at risk from CDS liabilities
12.Huge expansion in the monetary base
13.Banks begin to accumulate massive reserves
14.Incoming margin cash (and a lot of other cash) parked in Treasuries
15.Treasury prices up; yields down.
16.25 November: Bloomberg reports US bailout totals 7.7 trillion
FUTURE
17.Margin calls end
18.Deleveraging stops
19.Reduced demand for dollars
20.Reduced need to park cash in US Treasuries
21.US domestic demand very low and imports greatly reduced
22.US trade deficit declines quickly
23.Exporters to US dont need to need to buy so many US Treasuries
24.Bank reserves used to buy crashed assets, many outside the US
25.Banks start to sell US Treasuries to finance these purchases
26.Net sales of US Treasuries prices falter then fall
27.US cant sell enough Treasuries and starts to monetize debt
28.Dollar starts to fall
29.Global equity markets rise
30.Commodity prices rise
31.Supply-side shock in the US leads to shortages
32.US prices rise and US govt. cant fudge inflation numbers enough
33.US citizens panic
34.Hyperinflation of prices of consumption goods in the USA
35.Dollar falls
36.IMF overwhelmed
37.Exports to USA reduced even further
38.Global economy shrinks again, worse than ever
39.Global depression
BTW - stop reading the Mainstream Librul media for your daily headlines. Just watch Kudlow and Co. No worries, bottom calls and bull rallies daily!
dont worry. we're going to prop up the housing prices to make them affordable. this will jump start the economy!
That London Banker guy is such a downer.
Baltic Dry Index..which had been trying to hold about 850 for the last few weeks is down to 672 this morning...from over 12k at high..
No contracts being written.
Bloomberg.com:
Personal Finance
Anyone know who bubble vision let go off? Please let it be Kudlow and Cramer
Will all of the bad news in the las 2 days I can't believe that the Dow hasn't tanked . Where are the sellers ?
I sure am glad this has all been contained
You know, somehow I expected more from this second half recovery.
The car executives need to jump up from the table and go home. They will have their money before they open their front doors.
Not exhaustive, but certainly exhausting.
@ john
the plunge protection team hard at work
My crystal ball is quite cloudy. The Fed and treasury have taken us to places that nobody has ever been (and left alive) - like the winning contestants on the "Running Man" with Arnold & Richard Dawson. But to those with the tin foil hats on I would ask, which is worse:
I am hoping for number 2, so I can find other uses for the seed, chickens, guns and fuel I have stockpiled.
Here is a little song I wrote
You might want to sing it note for note
Don't worry be happy
In every life we have some trouble
When you worry you make it double
Don't worry, be happy......
Ain't got no place to lay your head
Somebody came and took your bed
Don't worry, be happy
The land lord say your rent is late
He may have to litigate
Don't worry, be happy
Lood at me I am happy
Don't worry, be happy
Here I give you my phone number
When you worry call me
I make you happy
Don't worry, be happy
Ain't got no cash, ain't got no style
Ain't got not girl to make you smile
But don't worry be happy
Cause when you worry
Your face will frown
And that will bring everybody down
So don't worry, be happy (now).....
Bernanke says more needs to be done to halt home foreclosures that are hurting economy
This never would have happened if people kept on buying houses and other stuff they couldn't afford.
I can't wait for things to get back to normal.
The two wage earner family is in deep trouble during this period of demand side layoffs. How many mortgage payments are based on the wife's ability to bring home a good weekly paycheck? How about those multi-car families with all those leased vehicles along with the boat and RV?
Not much left to layoff on the factory floor but the rest of the overhead will be getting a good haircut and women who have entered the work force in large numbers represent a big chuck of coming layoffs.
Don't worry be happy???
How about Grateful Dead's 'Touch of Grey'??
YouTube it. It's perfect.
Just buy the mortgages already. What's another few trillion anyway. Fire up the presses.
"Bernanke says more needs to be done to halt home foreclosures that are hurting economy
Ministry of Truth"
Maybe there should be a moratorium on selling any house so prices won't fall for awhile.
OT from last thread:
Norm Chumpsky writes:
The problem with Blair is that she likes to air the dirty laundry in public.
Norm Chumpsky | 12.04.08 - 11:23 am
Since my cynic mode is on, is Blair just pandering to us plebs with her assault of the Wall Street Heist, is she trying to protect the integrity of the FDIC, both, neither?
I find it odd that she is doing one thing that would instill confidence--IMHO--and she is going to get $h!*-canned for it?
Maybe I should start tanking my credit to speed up my PM, ammo, safe, rice, and gun purchases...
"women who have entered the work force in large numbers represent a big chuck of coming layoffs.
ron"
Women tend to be better workers and are smarter (and prettier). It is the men who will be laid off in bigger numbers.
These are all inflationary, right?
Re: From the London Banker website (comment section):HISTORY
Why are hedge funds even legal?
Man-oh-man with all the bad news I guess I'd better sell all my stocks. Oh, wait, I already did... And so did every other easily-panicked investor.
Who's left to sell?
Markets bottom when the news is grimmest.
Problem solved
"GAO says Fed, Treasury have authority to bail out auto industry"
... women who have entered the work force in large numbers represent a big chuck of coming layoffs.
I disagree. Layoffs will favor women as there still isn't full wage parity. We have entered the great leveling for wages between East and West at the worst time of all when we are just starting to experience the effects of the commoditization of labor.
. writes:
Re: From the London Banker website (comment section):HISTORY
Why are hedge funds even legal?
Because after the DotCom Crash, another bubble need to be created and the hedgies willing filled the void
I can haz bank nashunalizashun nao?
There are just too many holes to plug and the economy is about to empty another clip on the zombies.
Who's left to sell?
Anyone know who bubble vision let go off? Please let it be Kudlow and Cramer
Do you want it to be cloudy every day?
I think the fed should buy oil futures. That would end deflation immediately.
Besides, we should do it before the Chinese do.
Think prisoner's dilemma
Prisoner's dilemma - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
CR starts dropping Beatles lines. I like it!!
We need bundling. A McMansion and a Beamer @ 4.5% fixed for 30 years if you switch cable, internet and phone to Verizon.
Markets bottom when traders are free to exercise their desired positions. Until that is restored, confidence is gone, and selling will continue.
Please let it be Kudlow and Cramer
Cramer wants to be SEC chief.
People with weak English skills are also the first to go. Next are arguementative people and people who take more than their share of their boss' day for any reason.
Not that I've ever seen that personally. I just have a funny feeling that it happens.
here is a link to a lovely picture of the GM president riding to Capital Hill...
Pigcycle Picture
I've been waiting for one of the congressmen to ask the big 3 CEO's to raise their hands if the bicycled to Washington.
Did I miss this?
Ya know, that BDI achieved a double peak just like the US equity indexes over the past 15 months. Mirrors the credit crisis pretty well. The data only goes back 5 years. Still 12k to 670 is extreme. But 670 is closer to historic average than 12k.
Will they drive back too? Or hitchhike...
First to get fired are the doom and gloomers (ie the regulars here). They will base you firing on excessive internet usage.
Sports Guy Lafleur writes:
Will they drive back too? Or hitchhike...
Sports Guy Lafleur
The show will be over. Private Lear jet, hookers, booze and blow all the way to Detroit
*** HEADLINE NEWSFLASH ***
President-Elect Obama either wasn't born a U.S. citizen or that he later renounced his citizenship in Indonesia
, as claimed in a lawsuit by former oppenent Alan Keyes! Keyes, himself, is a Muslim.
Geithner May Seek to Push Bair Out After Clashes During Crisis
Geithner Seeks to Push FDIC’s Bair Out After Clashes (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
My god! Anyone have confirmation?
KANSAS CITY, MOPresident Bush sustained serious head injuries, massive internal bleeding, and a broken left leg Monday morning after being accidentally dragged behind the presidential motorcade for a period of 15 minutes. According to Secret Service spokesman Ed Donovan, Bush's necktie became caught in the trunk of the motorcade's second vehicle at 4:13 p.m., shortly before the driver accelerated. The president was dragged down 175th Street for 26 blocks and through four stoplights, leaving a trail of blood more than a mile long. Upon hearing shouts emanating from behind his vehicle, the driver abruptly applied the brakes, causing the third car in the motorcade to run over the president's left leg at a speed of approximately 25 miles per hour. President Bush is resting comfortably in Bethesda Naval Hospital
CR, Shoppertrak reported retail sales up 0.9% for the entire Black Friday weekend:
Page not found | ShopperTrak
Ordinary retail sales seem to be recovering from their Sept-Oct bungee-jump (but see ISM services index yesterday), whereas consumers are still cliff-diving w/r/t large durable goods purchases (anyone wanna buy a car?)
Bernanke Says Government Must Step Up Efforts on Foreclosures
Bernanke Says U.S. Must Step Up Foreclosure Efforts (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
The government could buy “delinquent or at-risk mortgages in bulk,” then refinance them through the federal Hope for Homeowners program, Bernanke said in a speech at a Fed conference in Washington. Congress could also help reduce loan rates and lender insurance premiums, he said.
Re Nokia: Yeah, that's another thing I always wondered. How did Americans afford to buy 1 or 2 (or more) new cell phones every freaking year?
Or, how have I managed to get by with my one Nokia brickphone for the past 5 years?
Where is the UPS man?
No UPS man driving in my neighberhood. Nor do I see him on the road. Every year, by now, the delivery guys would be driving up and down my street. parking and looking for addresses. I have not seen one yet.
mal, they're designed to go TU after a year. The last time I had a phone last until the end of my contract was about ten years ago. The one I got in February was shot by September, luckily it was still under warranty, they usually wait til the week after warranty is up. I barely even use the thing so it was certainly not abused.
Jesse -- Breaking ZIRP and Bond crash
Jesse's Café Américain
ova, where did you get that? Link? Hasn't been on the news or the intertubes.
This Obama stuff gets tedious - you can't renounce citizenship as a child, and the process, since the Vietnam War, at least according to the vice consul in Frankfurt, takes several days - you can't simply walk into a consulate/embassy, drop off your passport, and then leave as a no longer American citizen. Instead, you have to demonstrate the intent, then after a waiting period (3 days to my memory), you meet again with the consulate/embassy officials, who then decide whether you are indeed no longer an American.
That's right, the government in the end has final say of whether or not you can renounce your citizenship. Ironic, in its way.
And even the way the headline is written is deceptive - 'Suit contesting Barack Obama's citizenship heads to U.S. Supreme Court Friday.' Actually, a more accurate headline would be along the lines of 'Supreme Court will decide whether another suit of the thousands it receives on various grounds will be worth its time to do more than flatly reject.
Cramer as Cheif of the SEC? If that happens.. will he bring that stupid sound board as well?
hits button
SELL SELL SELL..
Booyaw
gn,
Selling stocks is not a sign of panic any more than buying stocks. The 'panic' argument is a shallow explanation of any downward movement, while upward movements are always explained as being due to 'fundamentals'.
I am and will continue to be short- the 'panic' (aka reality) will set in again.
Wachovia and Wells Fargo have not announced layoffs yet? SunTrust is being very quiet also.
Other candidates for layoffs in the next 6 mo's...
Airlines
Trucking co
UPS
FEDEX
Dell
HP
The entire auto industry
Steel mills etc...except I think they are already down
Retail
ooh, more kash n karry fun -
Kashkari Testimony Before the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government
amidst all the Pravda, a snippet-
Treasury released a term sheet for privately-held institutions, and we have provided even more streamlined terms to facilitate capital investment into community development financial institutions. Regulators are already receiving and reviewing many applications from these private depositories, another important source of credit in our economy.
HP-1312: Interim Assistant Secretary for Financial Stability Neel Kashkari Testimony Before the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government
In a few years from now after Benny and CONgress have managed to blow up the bond market, destroy the dollar, dumped Medicare and SS, plus raised taxes threw the roof to pay for this foolishness these will be looked at as the good old days.
Alan Keys is a Christian, not a Muslim...at least last time I heard.
ova, where did you get that? Link? Hasn't been on the news or the intertubes.
merciless | 12.04.08 - 11:56 am
Bush Dragged Behind Presidential Motorcade For 26 Blocks | The Onion - America's Finest News Source
ova, you scamp.
Other candidates for layoffs in the next 6 mo's...
nova
General and subcontractors.
merciless | 12.04.08 - 12:00 pm
Alas, it is so.
Other candidates for layoffs in the next 6 mo's...
Federal Reserve.
CR starts dropping Beatles lines. I like it!!
Yep, now we know how many layoffs it takes to fill the Albert Hall.
AIG May Double Manager Salaries With Cash Retention Payments
AIG May Double Some Salaries With Retention Payments (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Some executives in the group of 130 recipients will get more than $500,000 to stay through 2009, about 200 percent of their salaries, said the person, who declined to be named because the information hasn’t been publicly disclosed. An undetermined number of lower-paid employees will also get cash awards to dissuade them from quitting, the person said.
re AIG...let them quit, how much worse could it get? Why do we pay these salaries for stupidity...an ivy league education is starting become worthless
Sounds like you are warming to the 'Greater Depression' theory, sir.
Economy bottoms in '12, and not a year before.
Credit Union teller(Lousville) told me that their extras(CDs,loans,ect.Good rates on CDs and loans)has been almost zero for last two months.They have the money and are in great shape,but nobody wants to do anything.This is a credit union made up of mostly active and retired GE workers.
Ministry of Truth | 12.04.08 - 12:05 pm | #
re. AIG, it's time we send in someone like this to negotiate with AIG execs. i'm sure we have access to folks with the right resume.
YouTube - The Joker Meets The Mob scene
Would anybody have noticed if Bushy-poo was out of commission since Monday??
In a sense he has been out of it for years.
Why is AIG being allowed to do this?
I'm kind of dumb but I don't know what TU means.
In any case, I've had a Nokia 6010 for five years and have had no problems. Then again, I use prepay minutes with no bells and whistles.
oh sorry, I just figured out what TU means
TU= tits up.
Stratonovich calculus writes:
*** HEADLINE NEWSFLASH ***
President-Elect Obama either wasn't born a U.S. citizen or that he later renounced his citizenship in Indonesia, as claimed in a lawsuit by former oppenent Alan Keyes! Keyes, himself, is a Muslim.
Stratonovich calculus | 12.04.08 - 11:46 am | #--------
Hardly a news flash, suits contesting his citizenship were filed beginning in August.
I don't think it really matters much. The American have spoken and no court is going to change the will of the people (again).
Problem solved, every one please order soon
they are going fast.
RS325-67093 Rose Lens Sunglasses,with Metal Frame
Available at Yahoo Biz
Ordinary retail sales seem to be recovering from their Sept-Oct bungee-jump
ndd | 12.04.08 - 11:48 am | #
uhhh - what retail sales rebound you talking about?
Retailers U.S. Sales Tumble in Worst Month in Four Decades
By Heather Burke
Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers tumbled in November, the worst monthly performance in almost four decades, after the Wall Street meltdown caused consumers to postpone shopping until the Black Friday holiday-sales kickoff.
U.S. Retail Sales Fall in Worst Drop in Four Decades (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Oops! American = American people..
Big leg down in equities? -1500 -2000
Bonds yields tanked this week
Commodities tanked more this week
Chinese "are preparing for a worst-case scenario as the global crisis deepens."
4,000 holes in Blackland Lancashire!!!
Hmmm, 4,000 dead hedge funds too.
I want my bailout!!!!
Someday this war's gonna end...
Ha, ha, silly trader walt.
Happens all the time here in California, courts overturning ballot initiatives that passed by 60% plus on outlawing benefits for illegals, stopping gay marriage, etc.
It would be just rewards for the libs if SOCUS stepped in on this.
TU= tits up.
Comrade Kristina | 12.04.08 - 12:14 pm | #
this abbreviation chart needs to be updated, i thought it was Trout Unlimited -
Acronyms, Abbreviations & Initialisms - Letters TU Page #1
Bernanke: foreclosures still remain "too high"
Is there a point where foreclosures are "just right", Goldilocks?
Also, people aren't "spending enough" and are "saving too much". Must put a stop to that.
ova re UPS
What a great observation. I have not seen many either. Never occured to me 'till now.
Elliott Wave folks said last night that if the S&P did not break through 880 today, it was hard downhill from here today, to below recent low of 740 or so.
We'll see if they are right.
The news is overwhelmingly bad. I presume it has to bring down social mood --> stock market sell-off and crash.
Fiscal stimulus gone wrong...Japanese style:
Airport Without Planes Shows Japan Hooked on Useless Projects
" Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Japans $268 million Ibaraki Airport is on schedule to open for business in March 2010. The hard part will be persuading an airline to fly there.
The government and Ibaraki prefecture, home to 3 million people, are paying for the airport north of Tokyo, which wont have train services and is a half-hour drive from Ibarakis capital, Mito. Japan Airlines Corp. and All Nippon Airways Co., which operate 90 percent of flights in the country, dont plan to use it."
With a little effort, one could find hundreds of similar projects in Japan. This is partly why fiscal policy failed to prevent Japan's "lost decade." Somehow we have to ensure that US fiscal stimulus doesn't go down the same kind of black hole.
I wonder if the top mgt at AIG has looked at unemployment figures lately.
They could give each of the employees eligible for this "bonus" a 50% cut in base pay and most would stick around. There are no other places for them to go.
Chatted with the president of a regional bank yesterday. He said they wrote $7 million in new loans in November. Normal month: $170-$200 million.
Our city (Bellingham, WA) building department reported they received zero building permit applications for residential construction in November--they said they could not remember that happening before.
At least when you reach zero, you can feel comfortable calling the bottom.
tennesee guy earlier mentioned baltic dry index...a most telling indicator and under appreciated by the press...it suggests nothing less than a depression right now...that it already has begun....the decline of oil comes just as every commerical shipper in the world is busy anchoring their ships...steel output is expected to be cut by 40% next yr..this is real-economy devestation..this is a depression...i just dont see how long the dollar can remain so well-bid though...in 1930's it was gold so i can see why they were scarce for 13 yrs back then..now, its been scarce since july..but its just paper, not gold no more..easy to make...tempting to make when they are so scarce and when their rates of interest are south of 3%...they will be made...they already have been made..there is a consequence to this..we know what it is.
Chinese "are preparing for a worst-case scenario as the global crisis deepens."
East Indians - the other dark meat!
Barley(Very Good At Copy) writes:
nova re UPS
What a great observation. I have not seen many either. Never occured to me 'till now.
There's only one I want to see,...the one with my damn shirt!
Bernanke: foreclosures still remain "too high"
Is there a point where foreclosures are "just right", Goldilocks?
Also, people aren't "spending enough" and are "saving too much". Must put a stop to that.
Oh, so now we have too little consumption?
When did that change take place?
John stark writes,
]
"At least when you reach zero, you can feel comfortable calling the bottom."
I think this indicates that soon we can now start working off huge CRE inventories.
"Ancient Chinese Secret writes:
Fiscal stimulus gone wrong...Japanese style:
Airport Without Planes Shows Japan Hooked on Useless Projects
"
The Airport to Nowhere.
Layoffs will favor women as there still isn't full wage parity.
the "wage parity" argument has serious flaws. the collected data that people often cite does not repesent similar jobs. they found that the median woman's salary is around 75% of the median male's salary...
but it is not corrected by job title, hours worked, etc.
for example , in my job women make on average 80% of what men make. however, women also work 80% less (many are part time) and have worked less years due to childrearing activities. (they work, then take a year off due to pregnancy/maternity leave, etc)
when we compare equal titled employees who are full time and who have been in the labor force for the same amount of time the wage disparity disappears.
women may take the brunt of the layoffs because they are part time or leave work more often than their male counterparts (since women tend to be the primary caregivers).
but the key is the PART TIME and the LEAVING WORK... not the sex of the person. those people who are often sick or have to care for a child or who need maternity/paternity leave or other time off requests are the ones that will get the axe.
I'm guessing hours worked per employee will go up during this recession.
shelves will be barren in a year's time..not full (like 1930s)...the 30 cent an hr chinese labor wont deliver their goods so easily to us in the future...and who thinks opec will continue sending us their precious oil for under $40 a barrell? they wont do it...thats a fact...oil will become scarce even if, at nymex, it trades at $43, we will have to pay far more at the station and deal with shortages...
Fiscal stimulus gone wrong...Japanese style:
Sorry, but you're so wrong here.
The only solution to over-investment and overcapacity is super-over-investment and super-overcapacity.
ac,
Kind of like the "Super-Terrific Happy Hour" starring Jerry Seinfeld?
The world is bankrupt, except for the people with all the money.
"Casino Mogul Stanley Ho Pays $200,000 For a Truffle"
$30 billion sounds like a small number these days, but if GS is right about that being the amount of shovel-ready infrastructure projects it will still lead to some good employment opportunities. Not a bad idea to look at where these are and what skills are most needed.
sdtfs writes:
Barley(Very Good At Copy) writes:
?
"Very Good at Copy"
?
The news is overwhelmingly bad. I presume it has to bring down social mood --> stock market sell-off and crash.
Heh.... I'll make the same call I made last month (and I was pretty close).
For every 100k of "unenjoyment report" numbers over -500k tomorrow morning, I'll expect the DOW to rally 100 pts.
-500k tomorrow: DOW unch.
-400k tomottow: DOW +100
-300k tomorrow: DOW +200
The Airport to Nowhere.
Not One Cent
"Attention passenger 'US economy' your flight is about to depart. Please report to the gate immediately."
"Bottoming process"
One year down.
Nine to go.
they wont do it...
goose |
wrong - they need the cash flow
Last year my co-worker took time off to have her 3rd child in 5 years. (guess who gets to take up her slack? for no extra pay?) We had a little mini shower for her, as usual. Am I a horrible human being because I felt like giving her a box of condoms?
"ac writes:Sorry, but you're so wrong here. The only solution to over-investment and overcapacity is super-over-investment and super-overcapacity."
Everything was fine before they canceled the Bridge to Nowhere.
-500k tomorrow: DOW unch.
-400k tomottow: DOW +100
-300k tomorrow: DOW +200
You got it wrong.
The worse the numbers, the more aggressively the government has to attempt to decouple the dollar and the markets from reality, so the bigger the rally.
For every 100k jobs we lose we should add 100 to the DOW.
Engineered insanity.
Brought to you by the US Treasury and Federal Reserve.
post about dollar strength, much of what we discussed in the past, nice chart porn, good for new folks catching up -
Will the Dollar Rally Survive?
Will the Dollar Rally Survive? -- Seeking Alpha
a box of condoms?
mal
LOL
Too pessimistic, ac: not a further nine years of downturn, only four.
Unless we don't have a functioning Republic, which is a very real possibility.
Roubini video on the big three....blow out the debt and equity holders
Roubini Bail Out the Automakers But Only on These Conditions...: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance
YTL:
YOu're right in that the key to job loss will be overall "dependability" and continuing to show up.
I'm the one who's the swing person for the kids since I chose to stay home years ago. Utterly stunned my office since a female co-worker was pregnant and she stayed while I left for the kids.
Someone in authority was heard to comment that I'd driven a stake through my future career aspirations since I wasn't "dependable".
So those who take unscheduled time out will be on the hook ahead of the others.
More bad news: (from Across the Curve
I just spoke to a bill trader who noted that a large chunk of the bill list is trading at zero percent. He mentioned a point that I had forgotten but is worth noting. Bills always trade well in December because at year end there is demand for them as investors of every ilk dress up their balance sheets. He has seen that demand to a far greater extent than normal.
He says that given all that has transpired this year there will be enormous demand for bill through the entire month of December. He has seen demand from an eclectic group of investors from around the globe. He expects the treasury to announce shortly a series of cash management bills which would total about $100 billion.
In his opinion if they do not issue bills will scream through zero.
So get used to these low rates they are here for a while [hat tip]
Sounds like more liquidity trap to me...
ps Nemo thanks for linking me to this site. I love it....
Opec will ship but it will all be current production - investment that was made to pay off at prices south of $43/bbl - what won't occur is new production investment, or one hell of lot less and this will play out for all commodities.
When the light in the tunnel starts looking less trainlike and more daylike, there will be precious little ability to ramp up commodity production...and that is just the metals and energy. rich has posted about the ag commodities and that does not look promising.
Eric, are you reading from the PPT tip sheet?
Sounds plausible in this irrational, PPT-manipulated market.
"This isn't intended to be exhaustive - just a sample of the headlines."
Dickens, "Please sir, can I have some less?" (ref to bad economic news)
Man, I hate gruel - gruel breakfast, gruel sanwiches for lunch, and damn gruel leftovers for dinner. Well, at least I'll lose some weight.
Seriously... I don't understand why women who are continually pregnant are lionized, while the unmarried employee is expected to take up her slack in the workplace, for no extra pay.
"It takes a village," my ass.
Barley- Just playing with CR Companion rating system. And aren't you good at "Copy" ? I seem to remember your very detailed critiques to CR and also that budding cartoonist.
crispy&cole writes:
Roubini video on the big three....blow out the debt and equity holders
hello! Will the USG change the way business is conducted? This is why we have BK laws!
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) writes:
Too pessimistic, ac: not a further nine years of downturn, only four.
Being sensibly pessimistic isn't as much fun though.
nova writes:
Where is the UPS man?
I've noticed this too. Some of this, but not nearly all, seems to be loss of market share to the USPS as cost trumps service and speed. All of the online stores I visit have made the shift on everything except one- and two-day shipping.
A related anecdote: last week I placed two orders with Amazon using their Super Saver Shipping, which ordinarily means waiting a week or two for them to get around to filling the order. This time both were shipped the next morning--apparently they don't have anything to prioritize ahead of the free shipping.
No way does oil remain in the $40s.
With the crash of the dollar (next year?), oil is gonna cost a bundle a barrel. It will be priced in CHF or yen or gold, all of which will be terribly expensive in dollars.
sdtfs - thx
ac:
They can, in the short-term, screw up the relationships but ultimately they have to contend with simple rationality.
The longer they destroy the common sense components, the more likely the destruction occurs with an ultimate "reboot" based upon some rationality and common sense.
Having been badly burned once, the average person is going to look hard and if they don't see it, it won't fly.
Other words, gravity ultimately wins.
same experience here Yalt - we are all Amazon prime now!
crispy&cole writes:
Roubini video on the big three....blow out the debt and equity holders
Anyone who bought their D/E and didnt think it was a game of musical chairs or a ponzi scheme was delusional...
Burn'em both....
..................
ac - I agree being off the wall is way more fun....
"It takes a village," my ass.
mal | 12.04.08 - 12:41 pm | #
Plus the women who have 2nd jobs having babies for money that have private company insurance and go on leave while getting paid for the real job.
From about a year ago, don't remember who said it, but
TU = Tango Uniform.
Yalt,
Hey nice observation - I just received a book on super saver (thanks mal for the rec on Tainter, just wading in, you sound cranky, get drunk/laid) - it did arrive more quickly than in the past, particularly for the time of year...
Uncle Ar:
Yeah, tango uniform is way too pc though.
ac - I agree being off the wall is way more fun....
nades
I scooped some F paper recently. Not delusional, but rather whimsical.
Does Oil get "3" handle before year end?
And even the way the headline is written is deceptive - 'Suit contesting Barack Obama's citizenship heads to U.S. Supreme Court Friday.' Actually, a more accurate headline would be along the lines of 'Supreme Court will decide whether another suit of the thousands it receives on various grounds will be worth its time to do more than flatly reject.'
rent_to_own | 12.04.08 - 11:56 am | #
Isn't that how the news is made these days? Concoct some ramshackle "plan", put it in the mail to Treasury or your Congressman, then call CNBC or Fox, or if you don't have those resources just issue a press release about how you support the plan being considered (i.e., languishing in an inbox somewhere).
"Dan" (by the way, love the name) - great post - I would change one little thing:
"Franky was stunned. FRANKLY, Franky didnt have 22 billion dollars in cash!!"
He also didn't have 22 billion in credit like his friends Citiguy and AIGgie.
Roubini video on the big three....blow out the debt and equity holders
Just imagine the fun people will have with CDS after that!
I've been in South America for the past 40 days. It is so good to come back to CR and its Haloscan comment lines. A dose of reality is like a fresh cup of coffee!
BTW: If anyone is looking for those home builders who left a legacy of unpurchased homes and unpaid construction loans, I found a bunch in Chile bragging about leaving the USA financial cesspool beind them along with "all their liabilities." I guess they'll find out soon enough if there are any economic safe havens left in this world.
Barley,
Like I said musical chairs. I'm willing to wager you dont have any faith in the company or the long term out look of the current sturcture. I'm thinking you're more looking for 25% over 2 years?
How far off am I?
......
JP Roubini mentions them in the interview. He's looking for a massive restructuring not a total fold of the companies....
Gonna be a feeble manipulated attempt at a Santa rally soon. Critical for sheeple morale through the holiday season. Afterwards...you know.
Anagram problem:
what is the longest word(s) you can make from : HEDGE FUNDS?
Idiot congress can't relate construction job losses to auto demand.
Here's how private equity groups put together their business plans:
NEWMAN: I don't understand. You fill an eighteen-wheeler?
KRAMER: No, an eighteen-wheeler's no good. Too much overhead. You got
permits, weigh-stations, tolls... Look, you're way outta your league.
NEWMAN: I wanna learn. I want to know why.
NEWMAN: So we could put the bottles in a U-haul. You know, go lean and
mean?
KRAMER: Newman, it's a dead-end, c'mon.
NEWMAN: Damn!
Frustrated, he sits back. He notices a framed photograph of his mother.
A thought occurs.
NEWMAN (V.O.): Oh, Mother's Day. (inspiration strikes) Wait a second.
Mother's Day?! He starts typing figures into the adding machine rapidly. He mouths numbers to himself, shrugging as he makes estimates. When he finishes he tears the paper strip from the machine, compares it to figures on his pad.
NEWMAN: (triumphant) Yessss!
In celebration he swigs from a bottle of soda.
NEWMAN: Ahaha!
Newman hurries up to Kramer's door and hammers on it with his fist. He
waits a few seconds, then impatiently hammers again.
NEWMAN: Come on Kramer!
The door opens to reveal Kramer midway through a shave, holding a
razor, with foam on his face.
KRAMER: Wha...?
NEWMAN: It's the truck, Kramer. The truck!
KRAMER: Look, Newman, I told you to let this thing go.
NEWMAN: No, no, no, no no. Listen to me. Most days, the post office
sends one truckload of mail to the second domestic regional sorting facility in Sagenaw, Michigan.
KRAMER: (interested) Uh-huh.
NEWMAN: But, on the week before holidays, we see a surge. On
Valentine's Day, we send two trucks. On Christmas, four, packed to the brim. And tomorrow, if history is any guide, will see some spillover into a fifth truck.
KRAMER: (realisation) Mother's Day.
NEWMAN: The mother of all mail days. And guess who signed up for the truck.
KRAMER: A free truck? Oh boy, that completely changes our cost structure. Our G and A goes down fifty percent.
NEWMAN: (excited) We carry a coupla bags of mail, and the rest is ours!
KRAMER: Newman, you magnificent bastard, you did it!
NEWMAN: (triumph) Let the collecting begin! They embrace joyfully.
I'm sure I'll be losing my job soon; if only I had moved to Sweden a year ago. Maybe next year, maybe next year.
I saw a great deal in the paper this morning. 24 mo lease Honda Civic LX only $69/month. The catch? $4394 due at signing. Yeah, that'll work.
CNBC Firing 80 Staffers Today
Please oh please let it be...
Kudlow,Cramer,Haines and Kneale
HEDGE FUNDS = FUDGE HANDS
Oil now down over $2 bbl today...leveraged speculation never ends well
Stuff is messed up
YouTube - The Offspring - Stuff Is Messed Up
Anyone watching c-span? Somehow I missed that the little 3 want TARP money AND $34B! Ouch!
"Our city (Bellingham, WA) building department reported they received zero building permit applications for residential construction in November--they said they could not remember that happening before.
At least when you reach zero, you can feel comfortable calling the bottom."
Amazon.com: Backing Hitler: Consent and Coercion in Nazi Germany (9780192802910): Robert Gellately: Books
"Many ordinary Germans actively participated in this process, denouncing neighbors as "asocial" elements for associating with Jews or for "suspicious" activities. Denunciations derived from a variety of motivations personal grudges, economic self-interest, or ideological commitment with the full knowledge of what would happen to the victims."
"Our city (Bellingham, WA) building department reported they received zero building permit applications for residential construction in November--they said they could not remember that happening before.
At least when you reach zero, you can feel comfortable calling the bottom."
Did they have any demolition permits?
No time to read.
Worse than zero permits?
Sure. Opened permits which are allowed to expire without being acted on. Each abandoned permit is less than zero in a zero environment.
Foreclosure are due to go from under 40k in Miami-Dade County to about 100k for 2008 according to the Clerk's office when we tried to follow up to see why no publication happened yet. This time I represent the Plaintiff.
Concernd Observer...I figure 40 days in South America would be a fresh dose of reality. As bad as things are in the USA, we could be living in Argentina.
My bond trading family member says all that needs to happen to fix this financial calamity is for the gov't to get rid of mark-to-market completely. According to him that will be the magic pill that heals all that ails us. He went on to use all the buzzwords like "mustard seed", "free-markets", "deregulation" blah blah blah.
Any thoughts on how to respond to the mark-to-market is evil thesis?
ades:
Dislike the company. Dislike the products. Hate the Mgmt.
The fab rr and the hope for a bounce in the very near term - like 3 weeks. A whimsical decision.
I am finding the paper market is completely irrational right now as folks price in 0 or negative rr.
Boeing777: Fed Send Hug / Fed Ends Hug
Flim--admit there is a certain minor aount of truth in m to m is evil, BUT you can't make any money on that assumption, since the few securities which will pay over the years--but which look now like they won't be paid--will be completely overwhelmed by the non-payers.
some investor guy writes:
"Our city (Bellingham, WA) building department reported they received zero building permit applications for residential construction in November--they said they could not remember that happening before.
At least when you reach zero, you can feel comfortable calling the bottom."
Ahhh, your optimism is refreshing these days.
I see good news. This means the City can layoff lots of expensive staff with no reduction in public service. Win-win.
Flim Flam, quote bondgirl, "you can't make something solvent by changing the definition."
debt forgiveness is not without cost. second law of thermodynamics as applied to economics.
new thread.
whimsical indeed! I bet it works
Flim Flam - Ask him if he also wants to get rid of Market Makers?
Nardelli accidentally referred to taxpayers, as taxholes. What a weasel.
GM's Wagoner flogging a failed bathtub manufacturer live at C-Span:
C-SPAN Live Stream - C-SPAN
Any thoughts on how to respond to the mark-to-market is evil thesis?
Slap him upside the head.
Flim Flam -Ask him if he's buying the crap or selling it.
c&c - I think I mentioned oil would have a funny day today...
I just left a meeting at work. Part of the discussion was the rise in fraud cases we are seeing. People are trashing their lives over 10,000 dollars.
A combination of two things. The obvious one, which is bills, and no MEW. The second is that cash flows, etc. are getting the scrutiny they should have always had.
These are not your stereotypical bad people. Usually first time offenders.
The inflationary portfolio - including long USO and long TBT - has been decimated since 1 month ago. And people I read are still bottom picking these!
ova - what kind of fraud?
Barley | 12.04.08 - 1:13 pm
I really can't say more
Long Bond thru the roof. 3.1%.
ew thread
cnbc firing people...
maybe burnett can take her passport and go back to th camel races. She is the single most worthless person in financial ^TV
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) said: "Elliott Wave folks said last night that if the S&P did not break through 880 today, it was hard downhill from here today, to below recent low of 740 or so.
We'll see if they are right.
The news is overwhelmingly bad. I presume it has to bring down social mood --> stock market sell-off and crash."
JMO, but if we've learned anything from this blog it's that the mainstream media is one of the last ones to "get it" (right in there with me, the Fed, and the NAR). The almost universally bad news now is more likely to signal a turning point for the stock market (even if it's only a relatively brief one) than the "all clear" sign for additional cliff-diving.
I've been tracking mutual fund flow data for several years, with data from here:
404 : Page Not Found
In October there was the largest outflow from stock funds (as a percentage of total assets) since July, 2002. This is an actual indication of what people did with their money, as opposed to trying to subjectively gauge what they might or might not do based on current news headlines. Stock investors panicked in October (with massive redemptions), and the resulting market low was retested within the past several days.
Maybe we've seen "the" low and maybe not, but it looks like the easy short-selling money has been made and the bears might have to be a bit more nimble.
JMO.
Sebastia
Someone in authority was heard to comment that I'd driven a stake through my future career aspirations since I wasn't "dependable".
exactly. my goal wasn't to make this a woman vs man thing. more of a "who is ready to give 110% and do a lot of extra work for no pay" sort of thing.
whoever is responsible for childrearing (or taking care of aging parents) etc is the one who will get laid off.
protracted periods of time off can sometimes never be made up later on. it's just like when the star running back gets injured. if his replacement shines the previous star is in trouble.
likewise: those who can't be 110% due to other life responsibilities (illness, childrearing, aging parents, transfer of spouse, etc) are on the chopping block first IMO
Could anybody explain what is going on in the long bond market? Is the government actively involved here? Are they trying to chase everybody back into the equity markets since long term return looks better there?
Insurers and Pension Funds are getting hurt bad here. They will have to look elsewhere for the return they need to cover their liabilities.
Flim Flam asked: "Any thoughts on how to respond to the mark-to-market is evil thesis?"
You didn't say which side of the issue to respond to.
My response is this hypothetical: I own 1,000 window air-conditioners in December and can't sell any of them except at prices that would bankrupt me, but could sell all of them at regular price next Summer. Should my existing inventory be marked-to-market at bankruptcy prices?
Now imagine that I own mortgage derivatives instead. This time of year is perhaps the slowest for the housing market (never mind the "credit crunch"). Should my inventory of mortgage derivatives whose price is based on housing values and sales be marked-to-market for December, at the worst possible time? Wouldn't it be more fair and logical to average it out over a quarter, two quarters, or even an entire year? Should there be some adjustment for the credit conditions, since they clearly impact the value?
It might be personally satisfying to say "Let them all burn for their sins of greed and stupidity!" but there's another side to the story.
Sebastia
"Idiot congress can't relate construction job losses to auto demand."
Or job losses in any sector, for that matter.
Any measures aimed at improving this situation that focus on the supply side, which as of now includes pretty much all measures taken and most that are planned under the Obama administration, are positively and unequivocally doomed.
They may even make the situation worse- because increased supply of anything (cars, houses, etc.) adds to downward pressure on prices.
On the plus side, the sooner prices move inline with the average global wage the sooner markets may recover.
Saw George Will on Sunday morning show.
"94% of mortgages are on time. 94% of people who want jobs have them. This whole thing is out of perspective."
Therefore George must have a "formula number." What is George's "right number"?
How many defaulted mortgages is the "problem number?" How many out of work job hunters is the "problem number."
If the current stats are OK then George and his ilk - (re: people of means with health insurance and money in the bank, retirement plans and social connections)should fess up and tell us what the OMGWAITN (oh my god we are in trouble now) stats are according to his formula. Just sayi
My response is this hypothetical: I own 1,000 window air-conditioners in December and can't sell any of them except at prices that would bankrupt me, but could sell all of them at regular price next Summer. Should my existing inventory be marked-to-market at bankruptcy prices?
Now imagine that I own mortgage derivatives instead. This time of year is perhaps the slowest for the housing market (never mind the "credit crunch"). Should my inventory of mortgage derivatives whose price is based on housing values and sales be marked-to-market for December, at the worst possible time? Wouldn't it be more fair and logical to average it out over a quarter, two quarters, or even an entire year? Should there be some adjustment for the credit conditions, since they clearly impact the value?
MBS are based on existing mortgages on how they perform, so yeah since you can't sell a highly inflated house it's going to be foreclosed and the bond will suffer, but this point would be moot if the borrower could actually pay the mortgage.
And if you can make it to next summer, then valuing the a/c at BK prices would lower your inventory tax. But people are confident summer will come and would reasonably not value them at zero. There is no such confidence about mortgages. How about if you have to sell because you need the operating capital? Then yes, you go BK and that's what those assets are valued at, happens all the time.
....he blew his brains out in his car, no one really knew if he was from the house of lords.
Go Wal-Mart! Check it out at GloomBoom.com
Wal-mart seemed pretty empty to me today. Tons of stuff to sell, and no buyers. Boo hoo.