Forgive me for re-treading old ground, but, has the definition of "covered" under "covered employment" changed and/or could you overlay the difference in "covereds" during the last spike in unemployeds versus now?
I only ask because I suspect there has been a variance in percentage of those who would be defined as "covered" in the intervening years. If true, it might corrupt the ability to compare.
I was at a paint store today - privately owned franchise store - owner said it was slow but not dead slow as at least some folks seem to be doing DIY fix up in the homes they currently live in... not to sell but to enjoy while they live there. That was why I was there, been patching almost 100 y/o walls & painting. Talk about labor intensive.
Anyway he said the RM that calls on him also works the large contractor accounts - they are 'house accounts' and get supplied directly from regional warehouses & don't buy from the small franchisees. Volume discounts & aggressive pricing.
The RM said that 'channel' was as dead as a doornail right now - stone cold dead. If they weren't still moving paint through the small local DIYers they'd be selling nothing.
2005-2006 complete opposite - builder accounts were the bomb then - there was some talk about 'closing off' the DIY channel entirely and sell direct to builders or to Big Boxes only (all large centralized 'accounts'). Good thing they didn't go that way...
I think more than a few of these builders will be failing this winter & spring.
Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA): "[Obama's] going to have to be more assertive than he's been. At a time of great crisis with mortgage foreclosures and autos, he says we only have one president at a time. I'm afraid that overstates the number of presidents we have. He's got to remedy that situation."
Spoke with a few friends down here behind the "Orange Curtain".
One does high end custom floors, and is booked (currently working in Lido Isle), the other works on collector Porche's--
Both have not experienced a slowdown, but both are a bit uneasy.
Of course, this is OC, not a reality based part of the planet.
I'll be glad to get back to the North Coast.
There is not a single act or even set of acts that will cure the debt hangover, but there surely is a cure for solid, profitable companies that need to rollover loans to stay in business. Having most of them die will lead to economic collapse.
In the 'public bank' spirit mentioned above many times, it seems like the best thing the Fed/Treas/FDIC could do would be to find or create banks that are certified to be derivative-free and very modestly levered, and pour money into them (with the hook that they must lend and take on fiduciary risk). Certified Safe Banks! No more money to those uncertified. Any bank can become certified by cleansing their books and meeting the safe criteria - audited and reaudited.
If no banks currently exist that could be Safe Certified, take over some that are near to that (probably regional or local banks and credit unions), cleanse their books, and then pump in the money. No banks should be too big to fail. No more mergers and forced marriages of banks. Break up those TBTF banks that are forced into bankruptcy.
In the 'public bank' spirit mentioned above many times, it seems like the best thing the Fed/Treas/FDIC could do would be to find or create banks that are certified to be derivative-free and very modestly levered, and pour money into them (with the hook that they must lend and take on fiduciary risk). Certified Safe Banks! No more money to those uncertified. Any bank can become certified by cleansing their books and meeting the safe criteria - audited and reaudited.
The amazing thing is that more developers/builders haven't gone out of business. I'm betting that lenders just kept giving them more rope for the hanging over the past couple of years so now everyone will go down together.
Seriously, i'd move my bucks from BOA to a certified safe bank in a heartbeat even with 1-3% on CDs. I figure Bank of America will be Dead Bank of America in not many month.
While I appreciate the flow of conversation from the last thread, the simple reality is that human nature really hasn't changed much over the past 170 years.
The banking system is gorging itself while starving everyone else.
If this were an adventure novel, you'd cheer for the hero to shoot the fat bastard.
We have a local builder who advertises "live free for a year" and the newest billboard attachment proudly states that 512 families are now finding out that it's true.
How do they handle the simple cash burn? I don't get it.
"
The Chosun Ilbo is reporting this week that South Korean Minister of Culture, Sports, and Tourism Yu In-chon has pledged to invest ₩350 billion ($235 million) in South Korea's game industry through 2012 as well as build yearly exports to W5 trillion ($3.36 billion). As per the report, Yu's commitment comes in the wake of the Korean game industry achieving its $1 billion export goal two years ahead of schedule.
The South Korean news outlet also reports that Yu has announced plans for 60 other gaming-related initiatives, including a $200 billion game fund with aims to establish Korea as one of the leading game producers in the world."
This gives whole new meaning to "bailouts for everyone."
Kung Fu Panda: In the new online games developed through that initiative, I predict that jobs and loans will be plentiful, and house prices only go up.
Inventory has been building up, rents dropping, so far I've been able to follow the metrics for home prices, But, does anyone know of an expected decrease in land values in respect to home price declines..... I just want someplace safe for when the rioting starts
From what I've been able to gather, Broward is divorced, unemployed, and lives with his parents. Yet, he still has more of a life that you or I do, mock turtle, since he went out to shoot pool instead of hanging around here.
We have a local builder who advertises "live free for a year" and the newest billboard attachment proudly states that 512 families are now finding out that it's true.
is the statement on the billboard about the 512 families followed by diabolical laughter and the popping up of a mechanical animatronic extension with flames on it?
it just sounds a bit faustian or maybe just horrifingly ironic.
Austin,
Your Pareto is spot on but there's a really long tail of onesie twosie builders. That nobody has managed to get a 4% share reminds of nothing more than the nascent automobile industry at the turn of the last century. Buckminster Fuller had much to say on this issue.
Well, the two analysts interviewed on the NewsHour tonight both voiced their support for the "4.5%" mortgage plan. They told me that "everyone agrees we need to support housing prices."
The builders will be fine.
And on NPR yesterday, Henry Blodget (Henry @#*$! Blodget!) assured me that stocks were now fairly valued, and unlikely to fall further.
"automobile industry at the turn of the last century"
For the same reason? Until a Henry Ford came along with the assembly line, it was just hand crafting. And that's still the way the builders work, isn't it?
Yeah, they have temples in the darndest places. The one that illustrates the concept is in Wrightwood, CA. I mean really, 2500 people in a tiny valley surrounded by national forest and hardly any Mormons live anywhere near. Hmmmm.
You and I would think that. All pricing's on the margin and don't screw with that...
ToyotaJoe:
I'd expect that all things being equal, land prices will fall as well.
Some close friends are paying off 6 country acres that they bought while putting up their house as collateral for a business loan for the family business. I generally keep my mouth shut - I scare them - but asked why they didn't put up the land for collateral instead. If things go TU, they believe that they can sell the land for profit to purchase price and save the loan/house.
We'll see...but I doubt it. There just isn't enough capital out there to make it happen.
For the same reason? Until a Henry Ford came along with the assembly line, it was just hand crafting. And that's still the way the builders work, isn't it? - Austin Tex
Exactly, I love CR and the smart commentary. This is why I recommended looking up the Dymaxion House and Fuller's ideas.
I have a question. Does anyone have some insight into 'Lewis Planned Commuities"? They are currently proposing a development plan in my town that sounds irrational. In this market why would they be asking for zoning changes that would expand residentila expansion. I happen to be opposed to these kinds of developments in general. What is going through their minds now?
It is looking more and more likely that many homebuilders are facing BK.
Yet, they have seen a ridiculous runup in share prices in the last 2 weeks.
Now Cramer and Kudlow are aggressively telling their audiences its time to buy.
Pump and dump, the right way, baby.
These people are so evil, they inflate the shares and use propaganda to unload them on unsuspecting retail investor suckers. Note that Cramer was also aggressively pitching BSC, LEH, WB, DSL when the writing was already on the wall. Truly disgusting. I hope I'm wrong, but know I'm not. Cramer is a fraud enabler.
I've been looking at land on the fringes of the Bay area...Last year went with a relator to look...he treated me like s**t ... perhaps it was the pickup truck, ballcap and flip flops,...nothing came of it.... now I get emails everyday giving notifications of price drops...some parcels are now 25% to 35% from the original....just wondering how much more to fall in value...figuring that a many were spectualtio
Conventional wisdom says you can't manipulate the price of the stock by buying/shorting it, because prices will return to equilibrium as soon as you try to sell (or before).
Not if you have a frontman like Cramer to pitch it to suckers at its peak. The perfect exit strategy!
Which historical figure was smart enough to see the fragmented nature of the movie business as eventually leading to consolidation, with much money to be made by packaging these post-merger beasts for a hot hot wall street?
Strategists are yen-bullish. So who's left to buy? Not exporters, that is for certain. So who? BoJ? Ummm, no one needs reminding of their own current long USDJPY position, and the fact that they foolishly sold NOTHING in the intervening years of massive yen weakness. Moreover Japan itself has, for the past decade been diminishing their own home bias, undoubtedly a financial sojourn they deeply deeply regret. Then there are the fundamentals. And for Japan, they suck. Over-dependence upon exports, horrific and deteriorating demographics, worst Govt Debt to GDP ratio in the developed world, scarily making Italy appear positively prudent, and interest rates that as unappealing as anything out there, not even mentioning a political process almost as dysfunctional as that which enabled the sub-prime fiasco (exemplified by the near-suicidal attachment to whaling and the seeming inability of the Keidanren to garrot the lot of them in the name of Japanese self-preservation. Last, there is the chart. Yes the world is different. Yes leverage will be diminished going forward. But to a contrarian, none of this matters as these pictures are like a red cape to a bull. ...
Found out today that our facility will be shutdown for one week beginning the new year, due to decreased auto demand...I guess their waiting until X-mas to make the announcement...just when I thought my japanese masters wouldn't
The HB biz is somewhat anomalous. The top 10 HBs build only 20-25% of the total.
Rob Dawg
But what percent did they ocuppy in the bubble areas? No idea myself, but I'd guess quite a bit in the "sand zone" or what ever they are calling it today. (AZ and CA)
However, they did have a development in or near Vancouver, WASHINGTON, in the southern part of the state.
I saw their numerous advertisements when my husband was working for egghead.com, a company that had headquarters in Menlo Park, California. Egghead.com closed their Vancouver, WA office in August 2001.
Lots of Dominicans in the neighborhood (and i dont mean the Friars). But you get a lot of Mormon students, 20 somethings. Apparently its been here since the 70's after speaking to an older Mormon visitor.
Moved into the neighborhood recently, $700/month for 400 sq ft studio.
Don't mean to egg mock on and take the thread way off but I'm eager to hear some different opinion than what I've heard from even the right-side of the blogosphere. Basic mantra is that the folks floating this idea regarding Obama are being pushed by the same theorists who say 9/11 was an inside job.
Perhaps we can use one of the other thousands of threads to discuss this in on CR instead of a thread that is current? Just suggesting...
I'd like to hear about Obama's citizen status being challenged tomorrow. Impressive they could get it to the Supreme court so fast. That is the story I'd like to read.
I think it's likely that the bigger builders are disproportionately in the bubblezones. My favorite bubble disaster reads like a rogue's gallery of the big HBs: With nearly 1,800 homes at RiverPark built by some of the nation's top homebuilders, Shea Homes, Centex Homes, Standard Pacific Homes, a number of quaint neighborhoods will meet the needs of all of those looking to make RiverPark their future home. \t
riverparklife.com
My wife likes to stay the strategy for surviving the big CA earthquake is to befriend the Mormon's, since they all have stocked shelters and are prepared.
im willin to bet there are three reasons to believe the us supreme court will not now and not never rule against obamas eligibility
1...they are still saying ouch over bush v gore
2...to throw obama out now would create a cluster uck
3 mccain was born in panama at a sub base name coco solo which was not officially a us naval base (where he was born was under civilian control) until roosevelt made it a military installation by executive order several years later
ps us constitution does not provide for citizenship to those born outside us at bases (although i would never challenge mccains citizenship and i believe he was and is qualified to be prez
Incredible. I personally don't care if he was born in Papua New Guinea to a tribe of conquering cannibals. The people have voted and the travesty of the last 8 years will end.
Who are these people who are funded and fervent in their beliefs to doggedly pursue an obvious waste of time. Attack politics at its best. Worst part is some of these people see themselves as true patriots serving the constitution. heh
Baby Boomer - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Baby boomer is a term used to describe a person who was born during the demographic Post-World War II baby boom(1946-1964) [1] [2] , and is also a term used ...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby_boomer - 51k - Cached - Similar pages
The bond market is resembling the backdraft phenomnon. All the air(liquidity) is being sucked in before the massive explosion.
NewBondBear | 12.05.08 - 1:32 am | #
So if you're referring to treasuries, does that imply that yields will rise significantly due to prices dropping?
So if you're referring to treasuries, does that imply that yields will rise significantly due to prices dropping?
homedad43 | Homepage | 12.05.08 - 1:37 am | #
Yep, we're still "talking" about citizenship (sighs wearily).
Besides news on citizenship suits, the key news is old news:
"The Obama campaign has maintained that he was born in Hawaii, has an authentic birth certificate, and is a "natural-born" U.S. citizen. Hawaiian officials agree."
Next, wackos will filing suit in the Supreme Court to throw out teaching of evolution on the basis that the earth is 6000 years old. Scalia accepts the suit. People will believe anything, anything. And the KKK will soon file suit that banning of cross burning in yards and shooting dogs violates their right to practice their religion. (intended as sarcasm but in this world, these actually probably happened yesterday).
Can we please cut the horseshit about Obama not being a citizen? If not, I'm threatening to start my meme about Cheney really being an animatronic mechanism stolen from Disney's Bear Jambaree and then I'll threaten a law suit to strip him of his VP-ness based on him being an evil clone rather than a real person. And I demand to see his birth certificate and proof that he actually has a heartbeat, rather than pistons.
Not so fast, the Wikipedia article on Gen X gives overlap.
"On election night, November 4, 2008, Chuck Todd on NBC television noted that President-elect Barack Obama was a change of guard from the baby-boomer Presidents Bill Clinton and George Bush to the post-boomer generation of Obama. The Toronto Globe and Mail referred to the President Elect, who was born in 1961, as a member of Generation X.
The "it's all the boomers fault" marketing is disingenuous. I would prefer we start a new meme blaming it on portly white bank presidents/politicians/developers/insurance execs. How about if you have a country club membership it's your fault. We need to zero in and be more accurate in picking targets.
Let the minority baby boomers off the hook. They were victims.
the sovereign bonds that the rothschilds flipped during the time of napoleon often spent time down at 60 par. I really don't see why our treasuries aren't down there with those munis and high yield stuff. everything else in the market makes sense now, depressing at it is.
I find it a bit suspicious that Hawaii will not unseal the original birth document. I hope the Supreme Court forces them to unlock it so that Obama can get on with being President. Or else the crying will never end...
"real lucky"? Like Powerball lucky?
Or just lucky? - homedad43
I don't know how the end game gets played. Munis start defaulting and there's no play book. I can only assume that come 2017 the yield is still high and they re-fi.
California May Pay With IOUs for Second Time Since Depression
Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- California, the worldÂ’s eighth largest economy, may pay vendors with IOUs for only the second time since the Great Depression, State Finance Director Mike Genest said.
In a letter to legislative leaders Dec. 2, Genest said the state “will begin delaying payments or paying in registered warrants in March” unless an $11.2 billion deficit is closed or reduced. California, which approved its budget less than three months ago, may run out of cash by March, state officials say.
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger warned that he may issue the warrants, which are a promise to pay with interest, to suppliers and contractors as the seizure in credit markets may make it too costly to borrow.
....
California has no clue. If they tack on another 1.5% to the sales tax I'll turn in my certificate rather than charge my customers. They don't understand that any attempt to increase taxes will result in less revenue in short order. They are already over the event horizon and don't realize it.
Zephyr,
Be careful what you say. My inside says that Obama will form a revenue commission to suggest a VAT and/or national sales tax as the fairest solution.
Just wait until February when the Feds get hit with an $18b high speed rail request. That'll suck all the air out of Obama's infrastructure allocations. They won't be able to refuse with Pelosi on one end and Villaragosa at the other.
Too many Californians are still in a state of delusion. They think it's 1963 and everyone wants to come here. I'll give them that's exciting and a bit of a glimpse of the future. And the state government is broken and bankrupt.
Arnold's not the problem. I was glad to vote for his special election initiatives in 2006 which nearly passed. I hope that someone tries to push some of those things through again, because doing so will surely bankrupt the nurses, police and fire unions with all the advertising they put through fighting political reform.
I guess he did get discouraged after that however and has been a girlyman... but you can't blame him after the voters gave him a swift kick in the butt...
Who are these people who are funded and fervent in their beliefs to doggedly pursue an obvious waste of time. Attack politics at its best. Worst part is some of these people see themselves as true patriots serving the constitution.
GM | 12.05.08 - 1:29 am | #
Okay, so GM doesn't believe the Constitution of the United States should be followed. Note: I don't know or care whether Obama is qualified, but I believe the Constitution should be obeyed.
Why is it a waste of time? Does the Supreme Court have better things to do? Like maybe rule on things like the repeal of Posse Comitatus, Gitmo and torture, unlawful war without Congressional approval, the Fed giving away trillions of taxpayer dollars....
....you know, all those other attack politics subjects that people who see themselves as true Patriots upholding the Constitution want our government to obey.
Will someone explain what "92.2 yen" means, and why it matters?
As one of the largest holders of US debt a rising Yen discourages their lending to us cheaply. As a secondary effect there are some looking for a dollar collapse. It might start with the Yen and spread.
92.2 yen means that millions of people around the world believe (collectively) that the dollar is worth less in yen today than yesterday. Ignore their collective wisdom at your peril.
For more than a year the dollar has been appreciating in real terms.
Today the dollar buys more than it did a year ago:
It buys more real estate than a year ago.
It buys more stock than a year ago.
It buys more oil than a year ago.
It buys more lumber than a year ago.
It buys more copper than a year ago.
It buys more TVs than a year ago.
It buys more Car than a year ago.
It buys more gas than a year ago.
And now everything is on discount sale at the stores.
The judicial branch tries to stay out of election politics as much as it can, lest it be accused of rigging, as in Bush v. Gore If a credible claim is made that a winning candidate is not eligible for the office won, that claim will be heard if the Supreme Court decides it is in the best interest of the Constitutional system.
Mr Walker, voted best regional economist in Asiamoney magazine for 11 years to 2004, estimates China will grow zero to 4 per cent next year.
When housing went belly up in the US three years ago, China, a major supplier of home products, began to show signs of stumbling. But its great wealth sustained it and may continue to do so. But now Chinese housing, construction and manufacturing industries are in dire trouble with, almost out of the blue, experts on China predicting a wrenching drop in China's GDP growth
China with zero growth spells disaster. They have a massive housing bubble. So does Dubai.
GH: "In June those same people were saying that the dollar was worth a whole lot less in Oil."
Precisely. To get the full value of a currency, you have to work the problem through to the end-game. Does anyone owning Yen want to get to there? Of course they dont.
Incidentally, the extreme case of this particular denial is glod.
While we're on stadiums, there are currently 2 Shea, 2 Yankee, and 2 Giants' stadiums standing side by side, like the pod people. The old ones are perfectly functional.
"In '83 we had moosewood, ramen, homegrown, and Genny Cream at 25 cents a can"
Wait, you've been to heaven?
I can't honestly argue a rosy situation for the US - top of the heap in a global depression is still pretty awful. But I do get a kick out of folks that quote the Yen to the thousandths and then say, "uh-oh." Too funny.
Getting back on topic: We're in the process of being a knife catcher here in the OC. Since the spring, the mortgage rates has been such that PITI was about the same as rent we're paying so we've decided to make the plunge of being homedebtors again. (Interest rate now is much better than 6 months ago, of course.) The home prices are about 50% lower than the peak but we know things will go down lower.
However, we have two teenage sons and since we homeschool and we are in an apartment, we really need more space. We also would like to do things in and around the house that's hard to do on a rental: repair/remodel various parts of the house, fix up an old car in the garage, grow a garden and maybe even raise a chicken or two (yes, it's legal in the OC). (We own a dog, which really limits the rental choices, too.)
So, after months of looking, we are finally in escrow to buy a home in Garden Grove,CA and will close before year end. We're going to lose money on it, but hopefully, owning ETF's like SRS will more than make up for the loss....
"2 Shea, 2 Yankee, and 2 Giants"
And doesn't that just sum it up?
Unreal. Though I don't blame sports or sports-culture. For better or worse, it will be the last thing to fail.
Just tonight, in fact, I was down at the Staples Center (LA). Walking through the new, accompanying retail space all I could think of is one thing: ghost-town.
If my team's playing, I'll ride a donkey down...but I sure as hell won't buy a cashmere sweater once I get there.
We'll one day look back on the developers' idea of "public space" and laugh.
Since 2001, the Bank of Japan has locked the government’s 10-year bond yield into a tight range of 1.20% to 2.00%, forcing yield starved Japanese citizens to search abroad for better returns on their savings. The BoJ’s ultra-low interest rate policy spawned the infamous “yen carry” trade, its size estimated at $1.5 trillion to $6-trillion, which inflated bubbles in stock markets worldwide.
Japan’s legions of individual investors emerged as a global financial force to be reckoned with, directing $6.2-trillion dollars of the nation’s $14 trillion in personal savings overseas. They were joined by other “Yen carry” traders such as institutions, hedge funds, and other big-time players...
JapanÂ’s ultra-low interest rates encouraged local investors to plunge into foreign markets, with volatile currency risk, and American fixed-income investors could soon face the same dilemma, under BernankeÂ’s QE...
Unfortunately, there aren't any nations anymore that offer significantly higher interest rates, so where would US investors turn? Bank of England recently cut 150bps (did it cut again today?). EU is also cutting these days, Australia/NZ also...
When the history is written, I hope a coherent analysis will explain how this global depression was made inevitable by the interplay of several factors:
--the US trade and fiscal deficits
--Japan's ZIRP policy and resulting yen carry trade
--China's deliberately undervalued yuan
--Bretton Woods and fiat dollars for a reserve currency
Well, let's face facts. Toyota, Honda, Sony, Mitsubishi, et al, beat the crap out of GM, Ford, General Electric, et al. It won't last forever, as the rich tend to get fat fat and lazy.
Lawrence Livermore Laboratories has discovered the heaviest element yet known to science. The new element, Governmentium (symbol=Gv), has one neutron, 25 assistant neutrons, 88 deputy neutrons, and 198 assistant deputy neutrons, giving it an atomic mass of 312. These 312 particles are held together by forces called morons, which are surrounded by vast quantities of lepton-like particles called peons. Since Governmentium has no electrons, it is inert. However, it can be detected, because it impedes every reaction with which it comes into contact. A tiny amount of Governmentium can cause a reaction that would normally take less than a second, to take from 4 days to 4 years to complete. Governmentium has a normal half-life of 2 to 6 years. It does not decay, but instead undergoes a reorganization in which a portion of the assistant neutrons and deputy neutrons exchange places.
In fact, Governmentium's mass will actually increase over time, since each reorganization will cause more morons to become neutrons, forming isodopes. This characteristic of moron promotion leads some scientists to believe that Governmentium is formed whenever morons reach a critical concentration. This hypothetical quantity is referred to as critical morass. When catalyzed with money, Governmentium becomes Administratium (symbol=Ad), an element that radiates just as much energy as Governmentium, since it has half as many peons but twice as many morons.
"Stock intended to eventually earn taxpayers a profit as part of the Bush administration's massive bank bailout has lost a third of its value -- about $9 billion -- in barely one month, according to an Associated Press analysis. Shares in virtually every bank that received federal money have remained below the prices the government negotiated." ...
There is only one known heavier element, Revolutionium, which contains a particularly excited batch of morons, who further excite the peons. Revolutionium usually breaks down the particles into chaos, requiring tedios reorganization, but occasionally leads to a more stable state of inertia.
Actually, 1 currency soon [yogi], I completely agree with you. Tanta could have easily been a librarian, with the same integrity and skills, but she would not have had as many anecdotes describing the collapse of an entire economy, mainly due to human nature - from laziness to greed to stupidity to occasional reminders of our better selves.
rent_to_own,
well said!
these closet racist, SOB's won't rest until they do something terrible. They are traitors to this country wrapping themselves in the flag to hide their true selves.
I would hope that this was thought-up by some rouge PR monkey with a keen sense of both the market and irony.
We are in Florida, and I see the brute super-exploitation of labor, the hierarchies of class and racial priviledge, as well as the in-your-face deterioration of our ecological health and legacy.
By the way, the home in the advert has a fake stone facade--another metaphor for the shoddy economic fundamentals and the stupid yuppie sheeple that fall for the obese "American Scream".
There is a guy in South Florida that posts essays on Counter Punch who in very adroit fashion sketches the outlines of our on-going housing bubble crisis.
These dwindling dreams of something-for-nothing, always rising home equity (while average wages have long stagnated) are enough to defunct yuppie to reach for the crack pipe--or, CNBC.
Well, I imagine Dave still writes up witty essays for the Miami mafia's official news publication.
The culture really isn't 'empty' per se--it is just cemented over in a concrete jungle. Flash and trash, Calle Ocho on the last Friday of every month, cafe con leche after a night of mojitos on South Beach, the rare, rabid anti-imperialist in a sea of mind-numbed, brow-beated slaves of consumer capitalism.
There is a soul there, a 'there there', amid the all encompassing squalor and ideological delusion. One just has to use a jack-hammer and excavate under the lugubrious surface.
Imagination and a sense of irony helps too.
In South Flordia illegal immigrants form gangs to hunt the saw palmetto seed. They actually have violent confrontations over turf.
The Miccossukee Indians (a tribe used by the US military to attack other, recalcitrant, native peoples) sometimes take new Mercedes vehicles onto their reservation, and forever out of the hands of the dealership. There they rag these luxury vehicles out on the dusty, bumpy back roads, even engaging in drunken demolition derbies.
Sure, there is plenty of culture in the Miami area--but the damn jack-hammer jars the brain. True 'culture' isn't something that one consumes in a passive manner. It's a lived experience full of delicious contradictions and historical paradoxes.
(When I travel to South Beach during the height of the winter tourist season, I make a point to guerrilla camp. I find a place to sleep on the beach, usually in the bushes. The municiple parking fees are about $8.00.
These illegal camping expeditions give me a far better night's sleep than a stuffy hotel room. After a sunrise dip in the blue seas, I head to Starbucks for a 'grande' mocha while I scan the Miami Herald at my leisure.
I listen to the siren voice of the Afo-Cuban table cleaner. It's so gorgeous. Why the hell is she cleaning tables! Well, the contradictions of imperialism never cease to amaze--though professionally and competently trained in music in Cuba, she cannot find a job in her art in South Florida.
Brute consumer capitalism diminishes art--but it finds its way to the surface, between the cracks in the concrete, weed-like.
In the evening I party crash, insinuating myself under-cover among the fakes and snakes, the boob-job brides, and the lizard-brained goon grooms.
It is not that I can't 'afford' a $200.00 per night hotel room--it's just that I can't 'afford' to have a ho-hum vacation experience, the time I get away from my farm in Central Fla.)
wawawa writes:
What is the most rarest commodoity in the World?
Gold Platinum Silver
No, the most rarest commodity, IS Integrity.
wawawa | 12.04.08 - 11:24 pm | #
One of the best posts on CR I ever saw !
(Tanta's posts were before my time)
True 'culture' isn't something that one consumes in a passive manner. It's a lived experience full of delicious contradictions and historical paradoxes.
Real culture is exactly what you describe: it's the byproducts of what people do to survive.
When Americans talk of "culture" usually what they mean are "cultural consumption opportunities" - the museum, the play, the concert that regurgitates other peoples' cultures back at them for entertainment (as opposed to survival).
Culture is everywhere. Cultural consumption opportunities are not.
"loyment rate rose from 6.5 to 6.7 percent, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. November's
drop in payroll employment followed declines of 403,000 in September and
320,000 in October, as revised. Job losses were large and widespread
across the major industry sectors in November.
"
Apparently adult men and women are seeing higher unemployment rates, but somehow whites, hispanics and blacks are not? I guess men and women are not white, hispanic, or black?
"The unemployment rates for adult men (6.5 percent) and adult women (5.5
percent) continued to trend up in November. The unemployment rates for
teenagers (20.4 percent), whites (6.1 percent), blacks (11.2 percent), and
Hispanics (8.6 percent) showed little change over the month."
Jeez, NFP -533k, and both sept and oct job losses revised up huge. Talk about cliff diving. Is it possible that Bush will end 8 years with zero net job gains? Worst prez ever...sorry Jimmy B you have been dethroned as the worst
U-6 is 12.5% for November, up from 11.8% the prior month and 8.1% in November 2007...
Furthermore, the labor force participation rate dropped - that would imply an even larger unemployment jump, but because these are now "non-unemployed" people who simply "left the labor force", they don't get counted...
"In November, the labor force participation rate declined by 0.3 percentage
point to 65.8 percent. Total employment continued to decline, and the employ-
ment-population ratio fell to 61.4 percent."
"In November, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory
workers on private nonfarm payrolls fell by 0.1 hour to 33.5 hours, sea-
sonally adjusted--the lowest in the history of the series, which began
in 1964."
"Both the manufacturing workweek and factory overtime fell by
0.2 hour over the month, to 40.3 and 3.3 hours, respectively"
"The index of aggregate weekly hours of production and nonsupervisory
workers on nonfarm payrolls fell by 0.9 percent in November."
I just want to remind everyone of something Cramer said a few days ago that I actually agree with... For all of us who are short and will be up today because of this terrible news, remember to have a little empathy for the poor bastards who have been buying into this market and will be feeling some deep pain as a result, and especially have some empathy for the poor bastards who are now out of work in a terrible market and unlikely to be able recover any time soon.
It's good to be on the winning side of a trade, but it's also good to show some compassion.
Thanks PapaSloth for showing some compassion. My husband is one of those laid off, we don't know if we'll be able to save our home etc. We'll be ok one way or another, we don't have kids to worry about, I really feel for the families with children out there...
Okay so these dumb bastards totally built a "nice" development in a totally crappy neighborhood in my town, two blocks away from where I used to live. This neighborhood was white-trash central - 50 years ago it had been a nice place but not anymore. Here is a google streetview of the street I lived on, the nicer end, facing away from KH's new development (they tried to sell the rest of the houses by having people dance on streetcorners with their signs. nice.)
Significant news here. Kimball was a major builder in Austin.
Imagine if Kimball had focused only on Austin since 2006.
It would be flush with cash, and sitting pretty.
Not understanding some essential pieces of basic economics (debt services ratios, history of bubbles, etc) was amazingly widespread among many in charge of a lot of capital and influence, including also economists, of all people.
Well, we used to spend x gallons of oil to drive from Bismarck to Pierre in our our big machine, when we were rich. We can't afford the dollars any more, so we can't spend as many gallons, even at lower prices. Those holding yen, though, might buy the oil.
"To get the full value of a currency"...you must also take into account the notional value of how much is printed, literally or through accounting tricks, and divide by what is available to be purchased.
With one digital currency, essentially a weighted index of the value of as many things traded as is possible to enumerate, waste such as carry trades, arbitrage, inefficiency from inferior price information, are eliminated.
Yogi: Is it you that is a fellow Big Red? Or did I misread from the other night? Someone was talking about "Genny Cream"...
At any rate - "you must also take into account the notional value of how much is printed, literally or through accounting tricks, and divide by what is available to be purchased." Fine, but it seems to me that you eventually pass the point where comparing fiat currencies is of value, and reach a point where you start comparing the boats those currencies are carried in.
Kind of like sh*t gets real unfair on a basketball court when bigger, stronger dudes throw out the actual score.
Really - if China didn't need us, wouldn't we already have been called?
I dunno: show me the country with who we would trade cards.*
*And for the "guns and ammo" folks who get up in this late-night, feel free to bring in ag-base, water supply, ethnic makeup, etc.
Class of '83. Bob Frank (hockey helmets) the only Econ. prof worth recalling.
I don't play go, but I'm thinking that if a basketball team bullies its opponent, the rest of the league bands together to kick them out. It may take a while...
One currency doesn't solve the world's problems, it just makes trade a tiny bit more efficient, benefiting the market as a whole. Hyperinflation is nefarious. Deflation of things like gigabit memory storage is wonderful.
'83? Bet they didn't even have "build your own pasta bars" then. How did you survive?
We shouldn't really be quoting minute to minute Yen/USD, should we. The Yen increase doesn't represent a flight to quality - it's the logical next step for a currency synonymous with "quantitative easing." What happens when all that Yen comes home?
As a student of British crowd control, I must say - depends on which part of the stadium you tear down. Luxury boxes? Don't touch 'em. Terraces? Hmmm. They could use seats...and shrimp cocktails.
You're right. I'm really just saying we're still playing whack a mole. Bernanke can't make an electric car and it doesn't seem like the big 3 can either no matter how much we lend them.
Believe me I know how rich the US is from driving past those cornfields on the way to Ithaca. But here in NYC I see how easy the Ponzi scheme develops even subconsciously.
In '83 we had moosewood, ramen, homegrown, and Genny Cream at 25 cents a can at my frat's machine. And 25 cents was not that hard to come by.
Was it only 11 months ago?
Sad, but hardly unexpected. Next?
I remember that picture. I sold right before it appeared on this blog. God Bless Tanta.
What is the most rarest commodoity in the World?
Gold
Platinum
Silver
No, the most rarest commodity, IS Integrity.
So, now we are finally seeing the homebuilders failing. About time. What took so long?
too funny!
Hahahahahahahahahaha!
I've passed by that sign many times. Or perhaps another home-builder advertisement at SMF...
New drinking game... chug every time CNBC analyst says "money on the sideline"
CR-
Forgive me for re-treading old ground, but, has the definition of "covered" under "covered employment" changed and/or could you overlay the difference in "covereds" during the last spike in unemployeds versus now?
I only ask because I suspect there has been a variance in percentage of those who would be defined as "covered" in the intervening years. If true, it might corrupt the ability to compare.
Just a thought.
I was at a paint store today - privately owned franchise store - owner said it was slow but not dead slow as at least some folks seem to be doing DIY fix up in the homes they currently live in... not to sell but to enjoy while they live there. That was why I was there, been patching almost 100 y/o walls & painting. Talk about labor intensive.
Anyway he said the RM that calls on him also works the large contractor accounts - they are 'house accounts' and get supplied directly from regional warehouses & don't buy from the small franchisees. Volume discounts & aggressive pricing.
The RM said that 'channel' was as dead as a doornail right now - stone cold dead. If they weren't still moving paint through the small local DIYers they'd be selling nothing.
2005-2006 complete opposite - builder accounts were the bomb then - there was some talk about 'closing off' the DIY channel entirely and sell direct to builders or to Big Boxes only (all large centralized 'accounts'). Good thing they didn't go that way...
I think more than a few of these builders will be failing this winter & spring.
champaign wishes (bubble bubble) POP!
and caviar dreams (dats whut, whut...fish eggs..i aint eatin dat)
OT for
Broward Horne only
are you out there
after midnight im posting my response to your friendly challenge 2 weeks ago that obama is possibly or probably not born in the USA
since tomorrow the supremes make up their collective minds!!!!!
Another Chap 11 reorganization gone bad. More work for the BK attorneys.
No, the most rarest commodity, IS Integrity.
My LIE puts are up 700% in the past 3 weeks.
Prices are collapsing because the market keeps getting flooded with supply.
Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA): "[Obama's] going to have to be more assertive than he's been. At a time of great crisis with mortgage foreclosures and autos, he says we only have one president at a time. I'm afraid that overstates the number of presidents we have. He's got to remedy that situation."
Spoke with a few friends down here behind the "Orange Curtain".
One does high end custom floors, and is booked (currently working in Lido Isle), the other works on collector Porche's--
Both have not experienced a slowdown, but both are a bit uneasy.
Of course, this is OC, not a reality based part of the planet.
I'll be glad to get back to the North Coast.
Less than 9600 home builders left. Progress.
Next up wicked deals on partially completed structure and a whole lot more undeveloped land than anyone suspected existed.
Peter Schiff read Calculated Risk in 2006:
YouTube - Peter Schiff Was Right 2006 - 2007 (2nd Edition)
Rob Dawg(Unrated) writes:
Less than 9600 home builders left. Progress.
Dawg - have you ever seen a Pareto... what share of the total market does the top 10% or 20% control... is it another '80-20' type distribution?
Dry,
The HB biz is somewhat anomalous. The top 10 HBs build only 20-25% of the total.
On bank lending: (from botttom of last post)
There is not a single act or even set of acts that will cure the debt hangover, but there surely is a cure for solid, profitable companies that need to rollover loans to stay in business. Having most of them die will lead to economic collapse.
In the 'public bank' spirit mentioned above many times, it seems like the best thing the Fed/Treas/FDIC could do would be to find or create banks that are certified to be derivative-free and very modestly levered, and pour money into them (with the hook that they must lend and take on fiduciary risk). Certified Safe Banks! No more money to those uncertified. Any bank can become certified by cleansing their books and meeting the safe criteria - audited and reaudited.
If no banks currently exist that could be Safe Certified, take over some that are near to that (probably regional or local banks and credit unions), cleanse their books, and then pump in the money. No banks should be too big to fail. No more mergers and forced marriages of banks. Break up those TBTF banks that are forced into bankruptcy.
Only the government can make this happen.
Sorry, but never saw that photo before and it looks like beer goggles.
OT from last thread to mp:
what the hell is "pogo stick polishing"?
Sorry, but never saw that photo before and it looks like beer goggles.
OT from last thread to mp:
what the hell is "pogo stick polishing"?
Could Peter Schiff be Republicans are TRAITORS?
...........no.
In the 'public bank' spirit mentioned above many times, it seems like the best thing the Fed/Treas/FDIC could do would be to find or create banks that are certified to be derivative-free and very modestly levered, and pour money into them (with the hook that they must lend and take on fiduciary risk). Certified Safe Banks! No more money to those uncertified. Any bank can become certified by cleansing their books and meeting the safe criteria - audited and reaudited.
So, open an account and get a box of condoms?
So, open an account and get a box of condoms?
~~~~~
Beats a box of government cheese ...
The amazing thing is that more developers/builders haven't gone out of business. I'm betting that lenders just kept giving them more rope for the hanging over the past couple of years so now everyone will go down together.
homedad43: ya, and a bottle of disinfectant.
Seriously, i'd move my bucks from BOA to a certified safe bank in a heartbeat even with 1-3% on CDs. I figure Bank of America will be Dead Bank of America in not many month.
While I appreciate the flow of conversation from the last thread, the simple reality is that human nature really hasn't changed much over the past 170 years.
The banking system is gorging itself while starving everyone else.
If this were an adventure novel, you'd cheer for the hero to shoot the fat bastard.
and then feed the fat bastard to the Soylent Green machine.
We have a local builder who advertises "live free for a year" and the newest billboard attachment proudly states that 512 families are now finding out that it's true.
How do they handle the simple cash burn? I don't get it.
I now realize that I completely misinterpreted that poster. I apologize.
It was designed to be an omen.
How do they handle the simple cash burn? I don't get it.
~~~
Buy down on the loan ... months instead of interest.
Finally! More HB must die...
Unrelated but bizarre:
Report: South Korea plans $200B game fund
"
The Chosun Ilbo is reporting this week that South Korean Minister of Culture, Sports, and Tourism Yu In-chon has pledged to invest ₩350 billion ($235 million) in South Korea's game industry through 2012 as well as build yearly exports to W5 trillion ($3.36 billion). As per the report, Yu's commitment comes in the wake of the Korean game industry achieving its $1 billion export goal two years ahead of schedule.
The South Korean news outlet also reports that Yu has announced plans for 60 other gaming-related initiatives, including a $200 billion game fund with aims to establish Korea as one of the leading game producers in the world."
This gives whole new meaning to "bailouts for everyone."
Kung Fu Panda: In the new online games developed through that initiative, I predict that jobs and loans will be plentiful, and house prices only go up.
its midnight
do you know where broward is
ok i lied...no OT post
must wait for the challenger to appear
Inventory has been building up, rents dropping, so far I've been able to follow the metrics for home prices, But, does anyone know of an expected decrease in land values in respect to home price declines..... I just want someplace safe for when the rioting starts
sacto overbuild mirrors budget impass between midged ledg and gov steroid
But Kudlow said the homebuilders are in a new BULL MARKET RUN, UP 60% IN THE PAST WEEK!!!
Goldilocks Ch7 Bankruptcy Liqudation Sale!
BOOOOOYAAAAAAAA!
From what I've been able to gather, Broward is divorced, unemployed, and lives with his parents. Yet, he still has more of a life that you or I do, mock turtle, since he went out to shoot pool instead of hanging around here.
@Rob Dawg: "The top 10 HBs build only 20-25% of the total."
I just peeked in before putting the computer down for the night. Wouldn't 10 of 9600 building 24% be around Pareto 0.75?
9600 (100%) -> 100% built
2400 (25% of 9600) -> 75% built
600 (25% of 2400) --> 56% built
150 --> 42% built
38 --> 32% built
9 --> 24% built
Or is my memory of the Pareto fractile's nature flawed?
I just want someplace safe for when the rioting starts - toyotaJoe
Have you considered joining LDS?
Mormon???!!!
I like it. The comments section is back. Where is CSC?
homedad43 writes:
We have a local builder who advertises "live free for a year" and the newest billboard attachment proudly states that 512 families are now finding out that it's true.
is the statement on the billboard about the 512 families followed by diabolical laughter and the popping up of a mechanical animatronic extension with flames on it?
it just sounds a bit faustian or maybe just horrifingly ironic.
Austin,
Your Pareto is spot on but there's a really long tail of onesie twosie builders. That nobody has managed to get a 4% share reminds of nothing more than the nascent automobile industry at the turn of the last century. Buckminster Fuller had much to say on this issue.
Well, the two analysts interviewed on the NewsHour tonight both voiced their support for the "4.5%" mortgage plan. They told me that "everyone agrees we need to support housing prices."
The builders will be fine.
And on NPR yesterday, Henry Blodget (Henry @#*$! Blodget!) assured me that stocks were now fairly valued, and unlikely to fall further.
When did PBS/NPR become CNBC?
"automobile industry at the turn of the last century"
For the same reason? Until a Henry Ford came along with the assembly line, it was just hand crafting. And that's still the way the builders work, isn't it?
Mormon???!!! - toyotaJoe
Yeah, they have temples in the darndest places. The one that illustrates the concept is in Wrightwood, CA. I mean really, 2500 people in a tiny valley surrounded by national forest and hardly any Mormons live anywhere near. Hmmmm.
here:
You and I would think that. All pricing's on the margin and don't screw with that...
ToyotaJoe:
I'd expect that all things being equal, land prices will fall as well.
Some close friends are paying off 6 country acres that they bought while putting up their house as collateral for a business loan for the family business. I generally keep my mouth shut - I scare them - but asked why they didn't put up the land for collateral instead. If things go TU, they believe that they can sell the land for profit to purchase price and save the loan/house.
We'll see...but I doubt it. There just isn't enough capital out there to make it happen.
For the same reason? Until a Henry Ford came along with the assembly line, it was just hand crafting. And that's still the way the builders work, isn't it? - Austin Tex
Exactly, I love CR and the smart commentary. This is why I recommended looking up the Dymaxion House and Fuller's ideas.
Note: the land that they're paying off is almost now free adn clear of the note.
And that's still the way the builders work, isn't it?
~~~~
Homebuilding has differentiated customer and geographic markets and is subject to land constraints.
"Dymaxion House" is now in the current.txt (the ever growing desktop to-do file).
Thanks and good night.
I have a question. Does anyone have some insight into 'Lewis Planned Commuities"? They are currently proposing a development plan in my town that sounds irrational. In this market why would they be asking for zoning changes that would expand residentila expansion. I happen to be opposed to these kinds of developments in general. What is going through their minds now?
It is looking more and more likely that many homebuilders are facing BK.
Yet, they have seen a ridiculous runup in share prices in the last 2 weeks.
Now Cramer and Kudlow are aggressively telling their audiences its time to buy.
Pump and dump, the right way, baby.
These people are so evil, they inflate the shares and use propaganda to unload them on unsuspecting retail investor suckers. Note that Cramer was also aggressively pitching BSC, LEH, WB, DSL when the writing was already on the wall. Truly disgusting. I hope I'm wrong, but know I'm not. Cramer is a fraud enabler.
I've been looking at land on the fringes of the Bay area...Last year went with a relator to look...he treated me like s**t ... perhaps it was the pickup truck, ballcap and flip flops,...nothing came of it.... now I get emails everyday giving notifications of price drops...some parcels are now 25% to 35% from the original....just wondering how much more to fall in value...figuring that a many were spectualtio
toyotaJoe writes:
now I get emails everyday giving notifications of price drops
HAHAHA...same thing for me only from the local Land Rover dealer.
ToyotaJoe:
Just keep waiting.
I can (very quitely...the wife won't)
Brock Sampson wrote
....Yet, (broward) still has more of a life that you or I do, mock turtle, since he went out to shoot pool instead of hanging around here.
12:13 am
hey hey...i resemble that remark!
Conventional wisdom says you can't manipulate the price of the stock by buying/shorting it, because prices will return to equilibrium as soon as you try to sell (or before).
Not if you have a frontman like Cramer to pitch it to suckers at its peak. The perfect exit strategy!
Business trivia time!
Which historical figure was smart enough to see the fragmented nature of the movie business as eventually leading to consolidation, with much money to be made by packaging these post-merger beasts for a hot hot wall street?
My wife doesn't like to wait either, but honestly, she's come to respect what has come away from this board.
She hears something on the news and asks, "what's the board say?"
However, we still bought at near market peak...
Ah well.
toyotajoe wrote
i just want a place safe for when the rioting starts...
(later)
toyotaJoe writes:
I've been looking at land on the fringes of the Bay area
huh??
which bay are you talking about
let me recommend the bay of fundy
a part of canada thats in the united states (joking)
bgates:
Larry Flynt?
Sorry, thought you wrote "post-merger breasts for a hot hot wall street."
My bad.
"Larry Flynt?"
close, but larry seems to have stayed clear of the mob, not an easy thing to do when a strip club is the origin and foundation of the business.
not so with the answer to our trivia question...
bgates
Chaplan ?
San Francisco Bay area
United Artists
should be some good deals in Merced. if you can stand the poor quality of slam-it-up-and-stucco-inspect-before-the-foudation-cracks construction...
Ronald Reagan??
"Chaplan ?"
right era, wrong guy. UA ended up owned by transamerica and was killed by 'heaven's gate', speaking of trivia.
Merced has the poorest air of almost anywhere ...
It's on the Lung Assoc worst list.
"what the hell is "pogo stick polishing"?
homedad43 | Homepage | 12.04.08 - 11:56 pm"
I'm surprised you've never hear the term.
Think about it. Pogo stick. Boing. Boing.
"should be some good deals in Merced."
If it weren't for the jail in Soledad, that would be a nice part of CA, at least in the hills west of it.
Merced.... to far, time is money... I'll build as much as I can myself...alittle sweat equity
From Cassandra re: Yen:
Cassandra Does Tokyo: Whoooa There Bossy....
Strategists are yen-bullish. So who's left to buy? Not exporters, that is for certain. So who? BoJ? Ummm, no one needs reminding of their own current long USDJPY position, and the fact that they foolishly sold NOTHING in the intervening years of massive yen weakness. Moreover Japan itself has, for the past decade been diminishing their own home bias, undoubtedly a financial sojourn they deeply deeply regret. Then there are the fundamentals. And for Japan, they suck. Over-dependence upon exports, horrific and deteriorating demographics, worst Govt Debt to GDP ratio in the developed world, scarily making Italy appear positively prudent, and interest rates that as unappealing as anything out there, not even mentioning a political process almost as dysfunctional as that which enabled the sub-prime fiasco (exemplified by the near-suicidal attachment to whaling and the seeming inability of the Keidanren to garrot the lot of them in the name of Japanese self-preservation. Last, there is the chart. Yes the world is different. Yes leverage will be diminished going forward. But to a contrarian, none of this matters as these pictures are like a red cape to a bull. ...
bgates
mary pickford
created UA
Sam Goldwyn ??
mp:
Thanks, you've increased my liberal education.
I think.
bgates ...
Who said "Include me out ? "
hey, I asked for the screenplay, not a plot summary.
Women.
Argh.
chaplin cofounded UA with goldwyn, pickford and fairbanks in '22.
and the answer to the trivia question is...
Film Booking Offices of America - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
bgates
I think you get the OT prize of the night, maybe the month!!
OT
Found out today that our facility will be shutdown for one week beginning the new year, due to decreased auto demand...I guess their waiting until X-mas to make the announcement...just when I thought my japanese masters wouldn't
why that would be Szmuel Gelbfisz, of course
"I think you get the OT prize of the night"
Thank you! Though we got here honestly - Joe Kennedy and the moves he made before and during the depression are something to ponder in these times.
The HB biz is somewhat anomalous. The top 10 HBs build only 20-25% of the total.
Rob Dawg
But what percent did they ocuppy in the bubble areas? No idea myself, but I'd guess quite a bit in the "sand zone" or what ever they are calling it today. (AZ and CA)
......
broward
remember your friendly challenge two weeks ago where you inferred obama was not born in the USA
i followed the links you recommended and would like to answer your challenge
are you there
Jeezus Mock, let it go.
Broward should know he's American. He's got his kids wanting to be on Disney for crying out loud.
For the record, they are no relatives of mine.
However, they did have a development in or near Vancouver, WASHINGTON, in the southern part of the state.
I saw their numerous advertisements when my husband was working for egghead.com, a company that had headquarters in Menlo Park, California. Egghead.com closed their Vancouver, WA office in August 2001.
EK
homedad
just having fun
no poison here
hey if you and mp can talk about polishing knobs
and b gates can talk about charlie chaplin...whats the harm
i like broward...no hard feelings here!
Conspicuous consumption is on holiday.
Luxury Prices Are Falling; the Sky, Too - NY Times
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.05.08 - 12:26 am | #
Hardly any Mormons live anywhere near. Hmmmm.
What about Kingsbridge Road, and Grand Concourse in the Bronx, NYC
Lots of Dominicans in the neighborhood (and i dont mean the Friars). But you get a lot of Mormon students, 20 somethings. Apparently its been here since the 70's after speaking to an older Mormon visitor.
Moved into the neighborhood recently, $700/month for 400 sq ft studio.
Kudlow and Cramer aren't even the worst of the CNBC Crew. Check out Jerry Bowyer.
He is a total tool
Don't mean to egg mock on and take the thread way off but I'm eager to hear some different opinion than what I've heard from even the right-side of the blogosphere. Basic mantra is that the folks floating this idea regarding Obama are being pushed by the same theorists who say 9/11 was an inside job.
Perhaps we can use one of the other thousands of threads to discuss this in on CR instead of a thread that is current? Just suggesting...
I'd like to hear about Obama's citizen status being challenged tomorrow. Impressive they could get it to the Supreme court so fast. That is the story I'd like to read.
I think it's likely that the bigger builders are disproportionately in the bubblezones. My favorite bubble disaster reads like a rogue's gallery of the big HBs:
With nearly 1,800 homes at RiverPark built by some of the nation's top homebuilders, Shea Homes, Centex Homes, Standard Pacific Homes, a number of quaint neighborhoods will meet the needs of all of those looking to make RiverPark their future home. \t
riverparklife.com
My wife likes to stay the strategy for surviving the big CA earthquake is to befriend the Mormon's, since they all have stocked shelters and are prepared.
I put a post up on Bowyer Boners here:
http://hobochili.org/chili/?p=172
It is too long and vulgar to post on this board.
I'd like to hear about Obama's citizen status being challenged tomorrow.
See this Chicago Tribune article.
GM
just for fun
ok
im willin to bet there are three reasons to believe the us supreme court will not now and not never rule against obamas eligibility
1...they are still saying ouch over bush v gore
2...to throw obama out now would create a cluster uck
3 mccain was born in panama at a sub base name coco solo which was not officially a us naval base (where he was born was under civilian control) until roosevelt made it a military installation by executive order several years later
ps us constitution does not provide for citizenship to those born outside us at bases (although i would never challenge mccains citizenship and i believe he was and is qualified to be prez
back on topic, i just noticed beazer is worth significantly less than 100 mil at the moment. 40 mil at the bottom. wow.
Are we really still talking about Obama's citizenship?
le Dawg,
Diego is just the same, 4 monsters with tracks (sp?) for miles.
........
The idea that Obama could be tossed out is as likely as massive anarchy everywhere at once.... Not going to happen... just say'n...
......
blueblls
Its ok obama aint no stinkin boomer!
Obama's citizenship should have been vetted long ago. Hopefully it was.
I would hate to see the mess that would come if his claim to citizenship is false.
Actually, Obama is a boomer.
If there was a way to beat Obama with the citizenship issue the Clintons certainly would have done it, not to mention McCai
Barack Obama was born in 1961.
Baby boom is 1946 through 1964.
Thanks El Cliffo.
Mock Turtle-
Incredible. I personally don't care if he was born in Papua New Guinea to a tribe of conquering cannibals. The people have voted and the travesty of the last 8 years will end.
Who are these people who are funded and fervent in their beliefs to doggedly pursue an obvious waste of time. Attack politics at its best. Worst part is some of these people see themselves as true patriots serving the constitution. heh
Baby Boomer - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Baby boomer is a term used to describe a person who was born during the demographic Post-World War II baby boom(1946-1964) [1] [2] , and is also a term used ...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby_boomer - 51k - Cached - Similar pages
If the Clintons could not get him, nobody can.
Hope without borders?
The bond market is resembling the backdraft phenomnon. All the air(liquidity) is being sucked in before the massive explosion.
When ever or where ever he was born he'd better have his track shoes on Jan 20, 2009 ...
Ah ha he is a boomer!
Damn 18 years of boomers, how come they get to cover so many years?
The bond market ...
You mean treasuries right ?
Hope without boomers
i agree
just havin a conversatio
california munis @ 11%, junk yields @ 22%, the bond market is fine. no worries.
Great yields! But will you get your money back?
The bond market is resembling the backdraft phenomnon. All the air(liquidity) is being sucked in before the massive explosion.
NewBondBear | 12.05.08 - 1:32 am | #
So if you're referring to treasuries, does that imply that yields will rise significantly due to prices dropping?
So if you're referring to treasuries, does that imply that yields will rise significantly due to prices dropping?
homedad43 | Homepage | 12.05.08 - 1:37 am | #
I'm sure the Chinese could answer that one.
Yep, we're still "talking" about citizenship (sighs wearily).
Besides news on citizenship suits, the key news is old news:
"The Obama campaign has maintained that he was born in Hawaii, has an authentic birth certificate, and is a "natural-born" U.S. citizen. Hawaiian officials agree."
Next, wackos will filing suit in the Supreme Court to throw out teaching of evolution on the basis that the earth is 6000 years old. Scalia accepts the suit. People will believe anything, anything. And the KKK will soon file suit that banning of cross burning in yards and shooting dogs violates their right to practice their religion. (intended as sarcasm but in this world, these actually probably happened yesterday).
Can we please cut the horseshit about Obama not being a citizen? If not, I'm threatening to start my meme about Cheney really being an animatronic mechanism stolen from Disney's Bear Jambaree and then I'll threaten a law suit to strip him of his VP-ness based on him being an evil clone rather than a real person. And I demand to see his birth certificate and proof that he actually has a heartbeat, rather than pistons.
Not so fast, the Wikipedia article on Gen X gives overlap.
"On election night, November 4, 2008, Chuck Todd on NBC television noted that President-elect Barack Obama was a change of guard from the baby-boomer Presidents Bill Clinton and George Bush to the post-boomer generation of Obama. The Toronto Globe and Mail referred to the President Elect, who was born in 1961, as a member of Generation X.
The "it's all the boomers fault" marketing is disingenuous. I would prefer we start a new meme blaming it on portly white bank presidents/politicians/developers/insurance execs. How about if you have a country club membership it's your fault. We need to zero in and be more accurate in picking targets.
Let the minority baby boomers off the hook. They were victims.
Wow, Whittier Redv Agency 2038s 6.09% coupon selling for 63.00! Double tax free equiv to 16% and if you get real lucky a redemption in 2017 at 100.
Rob:
"real lucky"? Like Powerball lucky?
Or just lucky?
Rob J
i think nearly everybody who has posted here agrees with you....me too
broward horne, many threads ago suggested he wasnt, and i tried to respond to his challenge but he ducked out
its all cool
I know who to blame. Its the fault of fat bald white guys who blog late into the night!
the sovereign bonds that the rothschilds flipped during the time of napoleon often spent time down at 60 par. I really don't see why our treasuries aren't down there with those munis and high yield stuff. everything else in the market makes sense now, depressing at it is.
INO Futures and Commodities - Interest Rates - 30 YEAR INT RATE SWAP Dec 2009 (E) (CBOT:I3.Z09.E) Price Chart and Quote
my money legged in today, and will be hoping for a top tick in the morning on another leg.
I find it a bit suspicious that Hawaii will not unseal the original birth document. I hope the Supreme Court forces them to unlock it so that Obama can get on with being President. Or else the crying will never end...
CA GO's might have trouble if the goobernator can't get the ledge to fix the budget ...
"real lucky"? Like Powerball lucky?
Or just lucky? - homedad43
I don't know how the end game gets played. Munis start defaulting and there's no play book. I can only assume that come 2017 the yield is still high and they re-fi.
i found the last line in the first paragraph here amusing:
Technical Analysis Tools: Creating a ... - Google Books
so many assumptions have been smashed in the past few months. it really is staggering.
Rob Dawg
States are in deep trouble.
sales tax - way down
property tax - down
income tax - way down
corporate taxes - way dow
Wow!
So what will this do to the California muni market?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2TUhalNFDds&refer=home
California May Pay With IOUs for Second Time Since Depression
Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- California, the worldÂ’s eighth largest economy, may pay vendors with IOUs for only the second time since the Great Depression, State Finance Director Mike Genest said.
In a letter to legislative leaders Dec. 2, Genest said the state “will begin delaying payments or paying in registered warrants in March” unless an $11.2 billion deficit is closed or reduced. California, which approved its budget less than three months ago, may run out of cash by March, state officials say.
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger warned that he may issue the warrants, which are a promise to pay with interest, to suppliers and contractors as the seizure in credit markets may make it too costly to borrow.
....
Of all people around here I'm sure Mr. Dawg is aware... he's pretty well kept pace with it on his blog.
Financial condition - way dow
Would IOUs count as legal tender and come under the scrutiny of the Federal Reserve?
mmckinl,
Sure the States are in trouble but it isn't revenue that's the problem. It is spending and arrogance.
I guessed Sol T. Sieman.
California has no clue. If they tack on another 1.5% to the sales tax I'll turn in my certificate rather than charge my customers. They don't understand that any attempt to increase taxes will result in less revenue in short order. They are already over the event horizon and don't realize it.
If California needs another 1.5% sales tax - just think of what the federal government will need to pay for all of its current folly.
How do we reflate? I don't think a gold rally will really lift all boats here, and that's the only asset that comes to mind.
Rob Dawg
apologies for my post, its my incredulity at what is going on that was talking. Your posts are always very well informed and educational ...
Zephyr,
Be careful what you say. My inside says that Obama will form a revenue commission to suggest a VAT and/or national sales tax as the fairest solution.
Rob Dawg
Agreed ... What I can't believe is that they use bonds to pay for everything !
SF just got the approval for a $1.5 billion shuttle from the ball park to China Town !
Citadel is down 47% this year, and lost 13% in November? Ouch.
How much longer can they last?
Jesse's Café Américain
Not hedge funds best year ...
Must be tearing London apart.
California's creditors need to stop being "girly men".
Just wait until February when the Feds get hit with an $18b high speed rail request. That'll suck all the air out of Obama's infrastructure allocations. They won't be able to refuse with Pelosi on one end and Villaragosa at the other.
"SF just got the approval for a $1.5 billion shuttle from the ball park to China Town !"
this was the choicest piece of pork brought home by nancy in recent years, AFAIK.
it is a nice piece of tourist infrastructure, and will make a rail commute from north beach to the penninsula much more viable.
"... and Villaragosa at the other."
Antonio, like Gavin, is actually a pariah amongst Obama dems, for many of the same reasons.
Do we have any changes on Conjure's clock with these "events"?
here's a question ...
Which state goes BK first ?
Minnesota.
Minnesota. ?
Too many Californians are still in a state of delusion. They think it's 1963 and everyone wants to come here. I'll give them that's exciting and a bit of a glimpse of the future. And the state government is broken and bankrupt.
Conjure's been out partying. So says mp.
purple
They can afford it now ... lotsa cheap houses ...
Yes, Minnesota. Per capita $2b deficit is huge and their problems can be addressed with BK. Not so California with its structural spending problems.
92.2 yen
Of course you can have both muscles and brains but Arnold is so over his head it's more comical than any of his movies.
$2b or $2M ?
Arnold's not the problem. I was glad to vote for his special election initiatives in 2006 which nearly passed. I hope that someone tries to push some of those things through again, because doing so will surely bankrupt the nurses, police and fire unions with all the advertising they put through fighting political reform.
I guess he did get discouraged after that however and has been a girlyman... but you can't blame him after the voters gave him a swift kick in the butt...
Washington State is going to take a while to crash, but it will be truly spectacular when it does....
No income tax, only sales/property/business taxes. All crushed. But sales tax is going to be crushed.
I'm hearing rumors of huge budget shortfalls, and we haven't even had a collapse in housing or sales yet!
New York, Cali, Minnesota, FL, AZ, MA, all looking terrible too.
Minnesota has multi-year cycles. The current number is $5.27 billion over 30 months.
UPDATE: Minnesota Facing Multi-Billion Dollar Budget Deficit - WKBT La Crosse, WI-NewsChannel 8-
No, Arnold is not the problem. Neither is W., of course. But if you're not part of the solution...
We can't afford mediocrity now.
"I don't know why Ralph Nader was not called to testify today." said to me half-jokingly by a 90 year old WWII vet today.
Will someone explain what "92.2 yen" means, and why it matters? Thanks.
GM writes:
Who are these people who are funded and fervent in their beliefs to doggedly pursue an obvious waste of time. Attack politics at its best. Worst part is some of these people see themselves as true patriots serving the constitution.
GM | 12.05.08 - 1:29 am | #
Okay, so GM doesn't believe the Constitution of the United States should be followed. Note: I don't know or care whether Obama is qualified, but I believe the Constitution should be obeyed.
Why is it a waste of time? Does the Supreme Court have better things to do? Like maybe rule on things like the repeal of Posse Comitatus, Gitmo and torture, unlawful war without Congressional approval, the Fed giving away trillions of taxpayer dollars....
....you know, all those other attack politics subjects that people who see themselves as true Patriots upholding the Constitution want our government to obey.
Will someone explain what "92.2 yen" means, and why it matters?
As one of the largest holders of US debt a rising Yen discourages their lending to us cheaply. As a secondary effect there are some looking for a dollar collapse. It might start with the Yen and spread.
^^Whoops, that was me.
Damn you Dawg! Lmfao.
92.2 yen means that millions of people around the world believe (collectively) that the dollar is worth less in yen today than yesterday. Ignore their collective wisdom at your peril.
For more than a year the dollar has been appreciating in real terms.
Today the dollar buys more than it did a year ago:
It buys more real estate than a year ago.
It buys more stock than a year ago.
It buys more oil than a year ago.
It buys more lumber than a year ago.
It buys more copper than a year ago.
It buys more TVs than a year ago.
It buys more Car than a year ago.
It buys more gas than a year ago.
And now everything is on discount sale at the stores.
Cash is King.
The judicial branch tries to stay out of election politics as much as it can, lest it be accused of rigging, as in Bush v. Gore If a credible claim is made that a winning candidate is not eligible for the office won, that claim will be heard if the Supreme Court decides it is in the best interest of the Constitutional system.
What more can you ask of 9 unelected humans?
yogi,
Just to play devil's advocate...
In June those same people were saying that the dollar was worth a whole lot less in Oil.
They were wrong.
off topic, but related to real estate
Mr Walker, voted best regional economist in Asiamoney magazine for 11 years to 2004, estimates China will grow zero to 4 per cent next year.
When housing went belly up in the US three years ago, China, a major supplier of home products, began to show signs of stumbling. But its great wealth sustained it and may continue to do so. But now Chinese housing, construction and manufacturing industries are in dire trouble with, almost out of the blue, experts on China predicting a wrenching drop in China's GDP growth
China with zero growth spells disaster. They have a massive housing bubble. So does Dubai.
A new long march as China builds bridges to nowhere
China has massive civil unrest.
Unemployment will be an explosive issue.
Yes, cash dollar is still king. But credit dollar is not so easy to find.
GH: "In June those same people were saying that the dollar was worth a whole lot less in Oil."
Precisely. To get the full value of a currency, you have to work the problem through to the end-game. Does anyone owning Yen want to get to there? Of course they dont.
Incidentally, the extreme case of this particular denial is glod.
The dollar is just a derivative of the financial sector.
We see this in the wide swings in value in dollar denominated assets.
With $500 trillion in derivatives the current value dollar is just a placemark until the next valuation.
While we're on stadiums, there are currently 2 Shea, 2 Yankee, and 2 Giants' stadiums standing side by side, like the pod people. The old ones are perfectly functional.
How did we get here?
"In '83 we had moosewood, ramen, homegrown, and Genny Cream at 25 cents a can"
Wait, you've been to heaven?
I can't honestly argue a rosy situation for the US - top of the heap in a global depression is still pretty awful. But I do get a kick out of folks that quote the Yen to the thousandths and then say, "uh-oh." Too funny.
Getting back on topic: We're in the process of being a knife catcher here in the OC. Since the spring, the mortgage rates has been such that PITI was about the same as rent we're paying so we've decided to make the plunge of being homedebtors again. (Interest rate now is much better than 6 months ago, of course.) The home prices are about 50% lower than the peak but we know things will go down lower.
However, we have two teenage sons and since we homeschool and we are in an apartment, we really need more space. We also would like to do things in and around the house that's hard to do on a rental: repair/remodel various parts of the house, fix up an old car in the garage, grow a garden and maybe even raise a chicken or two (yes, it's legal in the OC). (We own a dog, which really limits the rental choices, too.)
So, after months of looking, we are finally in escrow to buy a home in Garden Grove,CA and will close before year end. We're going to lose money on it, but hopefully, owning ETF's like SRS will more than make up for the loss....
"2 Shea, 2 Yankee, and 2 Giants"
And doesn't that just sum it up?
Unreal. Though I don't blame sports or sports-culture. For better or worse, it will be the last thing to fail.
Just tonight, in fact, I was down at the Staples Center (LA). Walking through the new, accompanying retail space all I could think of is one thing: ghost-town.
If my team's playing, I'll ride a donkey down...but I sure as hell won't buy a cashmere sweater once I get there.
We'll one day look back on the developers' idea of "public space" and laugh.
Sometimes I'm the optimist here. Currency has no real value, it's only a movie.
Danny it sounds like you're buying for all the right reasons. If you repair/remodel/fix up/grow/raise you can't lose.
Since 2001, the Bank of Japan has locked the government’s 10-year bond yield into a tight range of 1.20% to 2.00%, forcing yield starved Japanese citizens to search abroad for better returns on their savings. The BoJ’s ultra-low interest rate policy spawned the infamous “yen carry” trade, its size estimated at $1.5 trillion to $6-trillion, which inflated bubbles in stock markets worldwide.
Japan’s legions of individual investors emerged as a global financial force to be reckoned with, directing $6.2-trillion dollars of the nation’s $14 trillion in personal savings overseas. They were joined by other “Yen carry” traders such as institutions, hedge funds, and other big-time players...
JapanÂ’s ultra-low interest rates encouraged local investors to plunge into foreign markets, with volatile currency risk, and American fixed-income investors could soon face the same dilemma, under BernankeÂ’s QE...
Central Banks Open Floodgates
Unfortunately, there aren't any nations anymore that offer significantly higher interest rates, so where would US investors turn? Bank of England recently cut 150bps (did it cut again today?). EU is also cutting these days, Australia/NZ also...
When I pass by the New York Public Library, completed in 1911, or stroll through 19th Century Central Park, I want to cry.
When the history is written, I hope a coherent analysis will explain how this global depression was made inevitable by the interplay of several factors:
--the US trade and fiscal deficits
--Japan's ZIRP policy and resulting yen carry trade
--China's deliberately undervalued yuan
--Bretton Woods and fiat dollars for a reserve currency
It would be fascinating reading.
Well, let's face facts. Toyota, Honda, Sony, Mitsubishi, et al, beat the crap out of GM, Ford, General Electric, et al. It won't last forever, as the rich tend to get fat fat and lazy.
Neo-cons still preparing for Iran attack
Asia Times Online :: Middle East News, Iraq, Iran current affairs
Lawrence Livermore Laboratories has discovered the heaviest element yet known to science. The new element, Governmentium (symbol=Gv), has one neutron, 25 assistant neutrons, 88 deputy neutrons, and 198 assistant deputy neutrons, giving it an atomic mass of 312. These 312 particles are held together by forces called morons, which are surrounded by vast quantities of lepton-like particles called peons. Since Governmentium has no electrons, it is inert. However, it can be detected, because it impedes every reaction with which it comes into contact. A tiny amount of Governmentium can cause a reaction that would normally take less than a second, to take from 4 days to 4 years to complete. Governmentium has a normal half-life of 2 to 6 years. It does not decay, but instead undergoes a reorganization in which a portion of the assistant neutrons and deputy neutrons exchange places.
In fact, Governmentium's mass will actually increase over time, since each reorganization will cause more morons to become neutrons, forming isodopes. This characteristic of moron promotion leads some scientists to believe that Governmentium is formed whenever morons reach a critical concentration. This hypothetical quantity is referred to as critical morass. When catalyzed with money, Governmentium becomes Administratium (symbol=Ad), an element that radiates just as much energy as Governmentium, since it has half as many peons but twice as many morons.
Expired
"Stock intended to eventually earn taxpayers a profit as part of the Bush administration's massive bank bailout has lost a third of its value -- about $9 billion -- in barely one month, according to an Associated Press analysis. Shares in virtually every bank that received federal money have remained below the prices the government negotiated." ...
There is only one known heavier element, Revolutionium, which contains a particularly excited batch of morons, who further excite the peons. Revolutionium usually breaks down the particles into chaos, requiring tedios reorganization, but occasionally leads to a more stable state of inertia.
One of the great strengths of the United States is its librarians.
That is the truth.
Actually, 1 currency soon [yogi], I completely agree with you. Tanta could have easily been a librarian, with the same integrity and skills, but she would not have had as many anecdotes describing the collapse of an entire economy, mainly due to human nature - from laziness to greed to stupidity to occasional reminders of our better selves.
rent_to_own,
well said!
these closet racist, SOB's won't rest until they do something terrible. They are traitors to this country wrapping themselves in the flag to hide their true selves.
This bubble photo is prescient and priceless!
I would hope that this was thought-up by some rouge PR monkey with a keen sense of both the market and irony.
We are in Florida, and I see the brute super-exploitation of labor, the hierarchies of class and racial priviledge, as well as the in-your-face deterioration of our ecological health and legacy.
By the way, the home in the advert has a fake stone facade--another metaphor for the shoddy economic fundamentals and the stupid yuppie sheeple that fall for the obese "American Scream".
There is a guy in South Florida that posts essays on Counter Punch who in very adroit fashion sketches the outlines of our on-going housing bubble crisis.
These dwindling dreams of something-for-nothing, always rising home equity (while average wages have long stagnated) are enough to defunct yuppie to reach for the crack pipe--or, CNBC.
Completely OT:
sorry but Hermann Maier is incredible. Just won 54th World Cup Race.
Does Dave Barry still write for the Herald?
The reason I left Miami after law school, to the amazement of my classmates, was the empty culture.
Who will be left to build the poor houses?
Rent-to-own at 5:33 - Kudos
sorry but Hermann Maier is incredible. Just won 54th World Cup Race.
Isn't that the guy who wiped out so spectacularly at one of the Olympics? Cool.
WordPolice addendum - it's rogue, not rouge - one is a rebel and the other is red.... well, maybe related, after all.
...another half hour to find out how many of us are unemployed....
1/4 mil?
1/3 mil?
1/2 mil?
....I think I fall into U6 category - and love it...
Also he fell off his motorcycle and almost lost his leg. Plus he's past 35.
Well, I imagine Dave still writes up witty essays for the Miami mafia's official news publication.
The culture really isn't 'empty' per se--it is just cemented over in a concrete jungle. Flash and trash, Calle Ocho on the last Friday of every month, cafe con leche after a night of mojitos on South Beach, the rare, rabid anti-imperialist in a sea of mind-numbed, brow-beated slaves of consumer capitalism.
There is a soul there, a 'there there', amid the all encompassing squalor and ideological delusion. One just has to use a jack-hammer and excavate under the lugubrious surface.
Imagination and a sense of irony helps too.
In South Flordia illegal immigrants form gangs to hunt the saw palmetto seed. They actually have violent confrontations over turf.
The Miccossukee Indians (a tribe used by the US military to attack other, recalcitrant, native peoples) sometimes take new Mercedes vehicles onto their reservation, and forever out of the hands of the dealership. There they rag these luxury vehicles out on the dusty, bumpy back roads, even engaging in drunken demolition derbies.
Sure, there is plenty of culture in the Miami area--but the damn jack-hammer jars the brain. True 'culture' isn't something that one consumes in a passive manner. It's a lived experience full of delicious contradictions and historical paradoxes.
(When I travel to South Beach during the height of the winter tourist season, I make a point to guerrilla camp. I find a place to sleep on the beach, usually in the bushes. The municiple parking fees are about $8.00.
These illegal camping expeditions give me a far better night's sleep than a stuffy hotel room. After a sunrise dip in the blue seas, I head to Starbucks for a 'grande' mocha while I scan the Miami Herald at my leisure.
I listen to the siren voice of the Afo-Cuban table cleaner. It's so gorgeous. Why the hell is she cleaning tables! Well, the contradictions of imperialism never cease to amaze--though professionally and competently trained in music in Cuba, she cannot find a job in her art in South Florida.
Brute consumer capitalism diminishes art--but it finds its way to the surface, between the cracks in the concrete, weed-like.
In the evening I party crash, insinuating myself under-cover among the fakes and snakes, the boob-job brides, and the lizard-brained goon grooms.
It is not that I can't 'afford' a $200.00 per night hotel room--it's just that I can't 'afford' to have a ho-hum vacation experience, the time I get away from my farm in Central Fla.)
wawawa writes:
What is the most rarest commodoity in the World?
Gold Platinum Silver
No, the most rarest commodity, IS Integrity.
wawawa | 12.04.08 - 11:24 pm | #
One of the best posts on CR I ever saw !
(Tanta's posts were before my time)
True 'culture' isn't something that one consumes in a passive manner. It's a lived experience full of delicious contradictions and historical paradoxes.
Real culture is exactly what you describe: it's the byproducts of what people do to survive.
When Americans talk of "culture" usually what they mean are "cultural consumption opportunities" - the museum, the play, the concert that regurgitates other peoples' cultures back at them for entertainment (as opposed to survival).
Culture is everywhere. Cultural consumption opportunities are not.
Haww-thanks for repost of the poster. I remember wishing that was the work of a blog-reading artist who was trying to send a warning.
tick tick tick tick.....
here comes the number.
they used to put genny cream ale in my baby bottle
and the number is: 533k
-530k
WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
-533
6.7k
mal writes:
sorry but Hermann Maier is incredible. Just won 54th World Cup Race.
Isn't that the guy who wiped out so spectacularly at one of the Olympics? Cool.
mal | 12.05.08 - 8:04 am | #
He's a superhero here in Europe. True sportmanship and incredible performances. He's like a superman.
D E P R E S S I O N
what was the expected number?
I guess hank didn't kick the birth death model hard enough.
Definitely an up day coming in the market.
Definitely.
Lot of queens.... definitely queens.
-320k
add 200k loss in prior months...
Consensus was ~335k per Bloomberg.
consensus was -300.
this was a big miss.
"loyment rate rose from 6.5 to 6.7 percent, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. November's
drop in payroll employment followed declines of 403,000 in September and
320,000 in October, as revised. Job losses were large and widespread
across the major industry sectors in November.
"
-533 OUCH!!
Ooh, are we going to get the rally on bad numbers now? LOL.
Wow, watching the futures TANK.
Wow, watching the futures TANK.
It's not 3:30pm yet. Give it time.
Damn. Fingers so unsteady I missed the cut-paste. Have I aged 50 years in less than an hour?
BLS nonfarm payrolls is a total disaster!
533,000 in November
403,000 in September (huge revision!)
320,000 in October (another huge revision!)
Headline rate 6.7% up from 6.5% and probably still far too low...
"Job losses were large and widespread
across the major industry sectors in November."
Headline rate 6.7% up from 6.5% and probably still far too low...
Liesman on BubbleVision correctly noted that number is low because people gave up looking, went back to school, etc.
.....Payrolls shrank by 533,000 workers last month, the biggest loss since December 1974,...
Geeze....
U.S. Payrolls Decline by 533,000, Most Since 1974 (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
U6 will be over 12% (the real number)
Can we officially say the TARP was a failure...as most of us here said!!
Sicko revisions.... 1.25 million jobs lost in three months...
If we claim this was the whisper number, then it wasn't bad, right?
ROFL!!!
Apparently adult men and women are seeing higher unemployment rates, but somehow whites, hispanics and blacks are not? I guess men and women are not white, hispanic, or black?
"The unemployment rates for adult men (6.5 percent) and adult women (5.5
percent) continued to trend up in November. The unemployment rates for
teenagers (20.4 percent), whites (6.1 percent), blacks (11.2 percent), and
Hispanics (8.6 percent) showed little change over the month."
Sheesh.
There is a crazy Republican testifying about the healing powers of Ronald Reagan and waving both hands in the air.
One of those special CNBC mental moments.
Jeez, NFP -533k, and both sept and oct job losses revised up huge. Talk about cliff diving. Is it possible that Bush will end 8 years with zero net job gains? Worst prez ever...sorry Jimmy B you have been dethroned as the worst
One more month like this and GWB will be the first pres with ZERO job growth...another failure for chimpy
Dirk LOL!!
CNBC is like someone kicked over an anthill.
It's hard not to gloat after listening to Kudlow blabbing on about mustard seeds for the last three days.
The markets are lower than when he came in and 2 unresolved wars. Amazing how much damage can be done in 8 years.
But hey, history will judge that he did a good job.
U-6 is 12.5% for November, up from 11.8% the prior month and 8.1% in November 2007...
Furthermore, the labor force participation rate dropped - that would imply an even larger unemployment jump, but because these are now "non-unemployed" people who simply "left the labor force", they don't get counted...
"In November, the labor force participation rate declined by 0.3 percentage
point to 65.8 percent. Total employment continued to decline, and the employ-
ment-population ratio fell to 61.4 percent."
Employment/Population is the key number IMHO.
Well, that number is so bad, the helicopters filled with money are lifting off.
TAKE THE MARKET!!
Kudlow seemed to be a bit lucid last night.
.....two-thirds of this year's job losses have occurred in the last three months....
I think I wish I had more puts.
Thanks wisdom seeker...12.5% is ugly
Weekly hours also getting crushed:
"In November, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory
workers on private nonfarm payrolls fell by 0.1 hour to 33.5 hours, sea-
sonally adjusted--the lowest in the history of the series, which began
in 1964."
"Both the manufacturing workweek and factory overtime fell by
0.2 hour over the month, to 40.3 and 3.3 hours, respectively"
"The index of aggregate weekly hours of production and nonsupervisory
workers on nonfarm payrolls fell by 0.9 percent in November."
I just want to remind everyone of something Cramer said a few days ago that I actually agree with... For all of us who are short and will be up today because of this terrible news, remember to have a little empathy for the poor bastards who have been buying into this market and will be feeling some deep pain as a result, and especially have some empathy for the poor bastards who are now out of work in a terrible market and unlikely to be able recover any time soon.
It's good to be on the winning side of a trade, but it's also good to show some compassion.
Thanks PapaSloth for showing some compassion. My husband is one of those laid off, we don't know if we'll be able to save our home etc. We'll be ok one way or another, we don't have kids to worry about, I really feel for the families with children out there...
SR my favorite part about Miami was Clint O'Neill almost every night after midnight on WDNA.
New thread; this one is "tapped out" and "capped" like an old oil well.
I live in a 3 year old Kimball Hill house (renting). What a piece of crap it is. Unbelievable what people were paying for these turds.....
Who's up next?? Ara? Bob? Please let it be one of these two arrogant pricks.....
We will see more and more of this kind of thing. Who is going to be building homes in the future? Check out GloomBoom.com
Okay so these dumb bastards totally built a "nice" development in a totally crappy neighborhood in my town, two blocks away from where I used to live. This neighborhood was white-trash central - 50 years ago it had been a nice place but not anymore. Here is a google streetview of the street I lived on, the nicer end, facing away from KH's new development (they tried to sell the rest of the houses by having people dance on streetcorners with their signs. nice.)
1700 de ovan Dr, Stockton, CA 95204 - Google Maps
Not that there aren't worse places in town, but really, did we need a development of two story houses in a run-down 50s development tract?
Austin also.
Significant news here. Kimball was a major builder in Austin.
Imagine if Kimball had focused only on Austin since 2006.
It would be flush with cash, and sitting pretty.
Not understanding some essential pieces of basic economics (debt services ratios, history of bubbles, etc) was amazingly widespread among many in charge of a lot of capital and influence, including also economists, of all people.
Well, we used to spend x gallons of oil to drive from Bismarck to Pierre in our our big machine, when we were rich. We can't afford the dollars any more, so we can't spend as many gallons, even at lower prices. Those holding yen, though, might buy the oil.
"To get the full value of a currency"...you must also take into account the notional value of how much is printed, literally or through accounting tricks, and divide by what is available to be purchased.
Was it Hedge Funds, borrowing in yen, unwinding their carry trade, that caused much of this ?
New Bond Bear:
If you're still around, I gather from your post u r shorting the 30yr. What vehicle?
That's one theory. I trust only numbers.
With one digital currency, essentially a weighted index of the value of as many things traded as is possible to enumerate, waste such as carry trades, arbitrage, inefficiency from inferior price information, are eliminated.
Yogi: Is it you that is a fellow Big Red? Or did I misread from the other night? Someone was talking about "Genny Cream"...
At any rate - "you must also take into account the notional value of how much is printed, literally or through accounting tricks, and divide by what is available to be purchased." Fine, but it seems to me that you eventually pass the point where comparing fiat currencies is of value, and reach a point where you start comparing the boats those currencies are carried in.
Kind of like sh*t gets real unfair on a basketball court when bigger, stronger dudes throw out the actual score.
Really - if China didn't need us, wouldn't we already have been called?
I dunno: show me the country with who we would trade cards.*
*And for the "guns and ammo" folks who get up in this late-night, feel free to bring in ag-base, water supply, ethnic makeup, etc.
And, I suppose, your one currency solves that problem. Three months ago, that would have seemed batshtinsn.
92 yen about to be cracked. Sure, we can get more CAD, but there are more yen out there to contend with.
Class of '83. Bob Frank (hockey helmets) the only Econ. prof worth recalling.
I don't play go, but I'm thinking that if a basketball team bullies its opponent, the rest of the league bands together to kick them out. It may take a while...
One currency doesn't solve the world's problems, it just makes trade a tiny bit more efficient, benefiting the market as a whole. Hyperinflation is nefarious. Deflation of things like gigabit memory storage is wonderful.
If the old strong man gets mad and tears down the stadium in spite no one gains.
Among talmudic scholars Sampson is not considered much of a hero.
'83? Bet they didn't even have "build your own pasta bars" then. How did you survive?
We shouldn't really be quoting minute to minute Yen/USD, should we. The Yen increase doesn't represent a flight to quality - it's the logical next step for a currency synonymous with "quantitative easing." What happens when all that Yen comes home?
"no one gains"
As a student of British crowd control, I must say - depends on which part of the stadium you tear down. Luxury boxes? Don't touch 'em. Terraces? Hmmm. They could use seats...and shrimp cocktails.
You're right. I'm really just saying we're still playing whack a mole. Bernanke can't make an electric car and it doesn't seem like the big 3 can either no matter how much we lend them.
Believe me I know how rich the US is from driving past those cornfields on the way to Ithaca. But here in NYC I see how easy the Ponzi scheme develops even subconsciously.
In '83 we had moosewood, ramen, homegrown, and Genny Cream at 25 cents a can at my frat's machine. And 25 cents was not that hard to come by.