After Paulson went to China a few days ago, Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan stated the financial crisis as the most pressing task that we are facing and urged the U.S. to protect Chinese assets in that country.
I admit that my favorite filk song posted here is this one from max
Max writes:
This one was inspired by something posted to Mr. Coté's blog earlier this week:
CDO's Defective
Bear Stearns has one little defect.
MBS risk model's incorrect.
The LIBOR soars just as the ARMs reset.
The Chinese won't budge on the yuan peg.
Now the CDO's defective
Hedgies in cahoots
Made the CDO defective
When the rates shoot shoot shoot shoot
They didn't think it could get up so far
When they used a HELOC for the family car
Long shot bet on a jumping yen
Printing presses being run by Ben
Flood of liquidity funding LBOs
But the ABX keeps hitting new lows
Your payments jump as you hit 110%
The neg-am's done, better find a place to rent
I don't know how much more the economy can take.
The foreclosures mount while they're hiking the rate.
Now the CDO's defective
Dow goes down the tubes
Since the CDO's defective
And the rates shoot shoot shoot shoot
Everyone decided it was time to sell
The breakers tripped before the closing bell
You think your money's safe but your pension plan's been funding it.
Now the PBGC's defunct you can forget about retirement.
How can you pay it off when the credit card has no limit?
Got another paycheck but the money's already spent.
The congress schedules hearings to appease the baby boomers
Who want to know the truth about their money's dissapearance.
Though it nearly took a lifetime to earn it and save
It only took one malinvestment to lose it away.
Because the CDO's defective
Who can you sue?
Since the CDO's defective
Nobody thought it could go on so long
But they kept on spending 'till the money was gone.
GiezCubed - if you're referring to the relaxation of leverage requirements on the investment banks, it was done by the SEC under Commissioner Donaldson in 2004.
Paulson was in on it - but as the head of Goldman Sachs, the largest of the banks getting the concession.
No, the word for "aunt" in Danish is actually "tante" - anyway across the world we all saw Tanta as a distant aunt.... I always thought that Tanta was a word play on the ancient Greek myth about Tantalus, who had to stand in a pool of water beneath a fruit tree with low branches. If he reached for the fruits, the branches raised from his grasp; and if he bent down to drink, the water receded. Temptation but never satisfaction. Take care out there...
serf Alan, i just read what you wrote last nite about the need for effective community leadership.
while i agree with morocco that ideally we need to be able to understand that we do not really need leadership in order to live harmoniously with others, i also see the wisdom of your point.
perhaps we need leaders who lead us to ween ourselves of the need for leadership?
it was inspiring to read that -- thank you for reminding me.
China Assets......Paulson, The US Treasury, The FED, Hil and Bill, The entire Bush Family, The US Garbage that can be shipped back to us as tainted fertilizer, tainted dog food, tainted baby formula, tainted paint, tainted food, etc etc etc
Back in the mid 1980s I was looking to buy my first new car. One auto salesman stated that it was sound financially to buy a car and use credit because one could write off the interest payments on one's income taxes. Another salesmen upon hearing that I would pay cash looked surprised and suddenly became much more enthused that I a would actually purchase a car. When I purchased a car at yet another car dealer, they give a strong pitch that I should finance the purchase. Nope, not going to do that.
and per your statement - "perhaps we need leaders who lead us to ween ourselves of the need for leadership?"
exactly! nurturing radical self reliance and core principles in the mentoring of other potential leaders is a key to sustainability. of course i don't see the need for leaders disappearing in my life span.
Re: my <a href=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MjL5IX_wbHM">Ay Amor, me duele tanta! video...
That title translates to: "Oh, my love, I hurt so (much)"
First, I know it should be tanto since it is modifiying a masculine verb. But that's the least of the liberties I took in my "translation" of Shakira's lyrics.
For those who don't "get" it...at the time, IndyMac's equity rating had been downgraded to one level of junk by Moody's. Michael Perry (IndyMac's CEO at the time, who might be eating canned Alpo now, for all I know) decided to drop Moody's following this action. So Alejando Sanz represents Perry, and Shakira is Moody's.
Most of the "psuedo-translated" lyrics mock a variety of horseshit comments that Perry fed to the media and various analysts covering IndyMac right up until the day it became the second largest bank failure in history.
One Miami-based hedge fund is bucking the industry-wide downturn with a real estate investment trust vehicle. Arcanum Capital Managements nine-month old REIT Investment Fund returned an estimated 20.5% last month, bringing its year-to-date gains to about 49%.
OT- just now on fox news, a guy from morningstar said that morgan stanley bond is yielding 15-16% right now. what does it mean ? is this type of investments not available to individual investors ?
btw, this same guy also said that we are on a v-shape recovery.
CR - yer killin me. Everytime I think about that brilliant life cut short...
Why should we wait until tragedy to show our appreciation? I'd put your smiling face right up there next to Tanta's and let us all smile back at you too.
GiezCubed(Unrated) writes: \tDoes anyone know where I can find a link/story related to the increasing of the leverage ceiling by Bush administration/Paulson? GiezCubed | 12.06.08 - 9:21 am | #
Fair Economist(Unrated) writes: \tGiezCubed - if you're referring to the relaxation of leverage requirements on the investment banks, it was done by the SEC under Commissioner Donaldson in 2004.
Paulson was in on it - but as the head of Goldman Sachs, the largest of the banks getting the concession. Fair Economist | Homepage | 12.06.08 - 9:36 am | #
I read the article cited above by FE, but I hadn't read the letter that Leonard Bole wrote to SEC recommending against the rule change. Sadly, the value of his comments were recognized by most only after what he was concerned about came true.
Please accept my condolences on the loss of your good friend. Feel free
to post as much as you want about Tanta. I am sure we all are here for you the way you are here for us.
We can buy if we want to
We can leave the bears behind
'Cause the bears don't own and if they don't own
Well that ain't no investment advice
We can buy where we want to
A place with a three hour drive
And we can act like we still live in the city
Try to keep up with our former lives
But, we can buy
Acheter!
We'll buy the stuff that we want to
You look good and so do I
And we can wear Armani from our heads to our feet
I really need a Gucci tie
We'll drive Humvees if we want to
Nevermind the big gas bill
And we'll spend our weekends at Lowes and Whole Foods
Cause we've got a big trunk to fill
I say, we can buy, we can buy
Our finances are out of control
We can buy, we can buy
Take out another HELOC loan
We can buy, we can buy
Take another trip to France
We can buy, we can buy
We'll just have to re-fin-a-a-ance
It's the Bubble Dance
It's the Bubble Dance
It's the Bubble Dance
We'll buy two or three if we want to
There's a hundred people in line
We were told to abuse it, our LO said to do it
If the price goes up we'll be alright
I say, we can buy if we want to
We can leave the bears behind
Cause the price goes up, it always goes up
This investment has no downside
"Bubble Dance" is a flashback from the heady days of Rock Blogging: April 2007. If you read the comments on that thread, you'll also discover my classic rewrite of Berlin's "The Metro," and Stagflationary Mark's parody of J Geils "Centerfold."
citizen energyecon - I'm still confused why my number was so wrong. But heh a reasoned est. is better than nothing at all.
I think December will be stratopheric. I'm seeing broad 7-10% cuts everywhere. Worse than the tech bubble where one sector was killed and others took some hits along the way. This time it is bigger, boader, wider, deeper.
January will be even worse as retail and some service sector jobs get hacked back.
Current U6 = 12%, no?
I have a friend in the rag trade - they are eliminating the sales staff commissions. They now work on a small draw, only. Ouch. Intention - get folks to quit.
Was out with a buddy of mine last night. Someone who knows my take on housing, etc. He implored me to buy a house in Seattle NOW because prices just can't possibly fall any further once 4.5% rates kick in. He's a pretty bright guy, cognitive scientist and all, but he can't get his head around prices falling drastically. This propaganda is tough to kill.
I personally would rather be alive and obscure, but let me point out that Tanta achieved true greatness and fame after she got sick--but not too sick to post--and then had the time to do all her famous posts.
but let me point out that Tanta achieved true greatness and fame
And through it all, her built-in humility wouldn't let her quite believe it. I remember a few posts where she felt like she was stating the obvious, but she still got accolades from places like the Fed and the SEC. Part of that was due to her writing style and her ability to make difficult subjects understandable, but these were the guys that were supposed to understand the hard stuff! I think that scared the shit out of her, and kept her from accepting her fame as something of value.
She was the only sane person in the asylum; if that's a claim to fame, I don't think she wanted it.
I'm about ready to start a day of maximizing my infrastructure. No better send off than a shot of CR!
My partner & I have a pocket farm that is getting close to providing a lot of food year-round. We keep making improvements that will lessen our need for inputs, time & labor. And it's very fun as well - 3500 sf of garden, 2 beef cows, a laying flock, fruit trees, beehive, neighbors we barter with, etc. I've learned serious building and farming skills that I can teach too.
We're hoping when we're too old to farm, we can trade the place in as a dowry and retire to a small place with just a kitchen garden and small flock.
What's trippy is that the value of our place keeps going up while most other houses are dropping. We bought at a good rate, and kept within an amount we can handle on one income if need be.
We don't live rich, but we live well. Invest in high quality equipment and clothing, so we can get our money's worth out of it. We eat good food so we can maximize our health as we age. Stuff like that.
The community organizer thing is on our minds too. I don't care to be a leader, but it's in the back of my mind that we may have the combination of knowledge that people need to feed themselves cheaply on a small place.
Worst job loss since 1974. I was a highschool senior in a Chicago-burb As a babyboomer I remember that the highschool didn't have enough room and had two sessions;morning and afternoon. Everything was expensive. But, as a product of parents who were depression era children, the hard times were always there. My mom was raised on a family farm in the midwest. During the depression she remembered people begging to do a day's work on the farm for a meal. They'd mark the gate as a good place to stop.
My childhood Christmases were about gifts of need; coats, boots, homemade scarves and if times were "good" aka grandparents gave my parents money for the kids, I'd get a toy.
I barely remember my grandparents. My siblings remember lovingly a grandma for her warmth and kindness, not what she gave them. Her gifts were to my parents to help on a downpayment; hard-earned savings passed on for the future of her family.
My children have experienced many of their "wants" and needs met. I've worked hard to live within my means and believed in saving. I told my inlaws give the kids savings bonds as presents for their future. They'll be thankful and remember your generousity when they cash them for college expenses. My kids were thankful and their grandparents have long passed.
Yet, I wonder, have I prepared them for this severe economic downturn? The difference this time around, the parents, have been tapped out in paying for education, healthcare, and homes that have been overpriced since the 1980's. We started out with double-digit interest on mortgages. And forced into a cycle of refinancing for lower interest rates and pay for college for our kids. Savings and home equity wiped-out.
The baby boomers are in fear as the savings that paid for outrageous education costs, cars that equal the cost of a downpayment on a house, bread at $4 a loaf, 6 years of the outrageous energy profits, and real estate taxes thru the roof has emptied our pockets. Many of us live paycheck to paycheck. The government and corporate greed has sucked us dry. Looted our reitrement for stupid wars, corporate giveaways, no-bid MIC contracts. Encouraged Corporate greed of triple digit profits, ponzi scams, and creative accounting. Labor wages not increasing to true inflation, government fake CPI, scamming the worker, and stealing for too long. CEO's not going to jail, but getting bailouts and a wink and a nod. Sending our jobs overseas, cheap and dangerous foreign crapola shipped to our shores for us to consume. Changing american workers into a GDP of 70% consumerism. The final kicker, foreign industry allowed in our country at non-union minimum wage jobs.
I can't afford these bozos in government. The price tag has been too high for too long. Greed has nearly devoured the golden goose; the middle class.
I'm not sure -- I might prefer tarring and feathering Cramer to Kudlow. Can't decide who's the bigger buffoon, though tarring & feathering might not be enough, depending on the heat of the tar . . . . .
The staggering distortion to me is the disconnect between Treasuries and all other fixed income investments. With the 10-Yr Treasury at 3%, I'm having a hard time understanding corporate yields up in double-digits . . . . . . . I know of one profitable investment grade mid cap company with a stable business mix and debt net of cash is close to ZERO and the bonds yield north of 9%.
Now, the capital markets may be correct and this may be a deflationary depression on par with the 1930s, but I am rather surprised that the capital markets are discounting that outcome with such a high level of probability - I'd put the odds at 20%-30%, and the capital markets are up in the 80%-95% range, IMO.
Day after day,
Alone on the Hill,
The man with the foolish beard is buying Treasury Bills
But nobody wants to know him,
They can see that he's just a fool,
And he never gives an answer,
But the fool on the Hill,
Sees the banks going down,
And the eyes in his head,
See the swaps spinning 'round.
Well on the way,
MBS in a cloud,
The man of a 1000 'copters talking perfectly loud
But nobody ever hears him,
Or the cash he appears to make,
And he never seems to notice,
But the fool on the hill,
Sees the banks going down,
And the eyes in his head,
See the swaps spinning 'round.
And nobody seems to like him,
They can tell what he wants to do,
And he never shows his assets,
But the fool on the hill,
Sees the banks going down,
And the eyes in his head,
See the swaps spinning 'round.
Ooh, ooh,
Round and down and round.
And he never listens to them,
He knows that they're in the stool
They don't like him,
The fool on the hill
Sees the banks going down,
And the eyes in his head,
See the swaps spinning 'round.
Wow Barley! Nothing like insult to injury. I love the sage advice from the financial planner at the end of the article. Yep, it's all the employees' fault. Douchebag.
Whatever the factors involved, Mervyns' move is a reminder that workers need to understand where they are investing retirement money, said Bruce Dzieza, president of Willow Creek Financial Services of Sebastopol.
"The warning here is people should read their prospectus before they make their investment choices," he said.
I think what my daughters, the kids coming of age, missed, was parent time. For the most part, none of my peers were there. Why? 2 income families. The substitute? A structured life of classes an activities for the kids.
"The warning here is people should read their prospectus before they make their investment choices," he said.
Max | Homepage | 12.06.08 - 11:47 am |
My translation: Hey little people. You are going to screwed no matter what you do.
just now on fox news, a guy from morningstar said that morgan stanley bond is yielding 15-16% right now
Not sure about that particular fund, but my guess is that it is a high yield corporate bond fund.
Corporate bond spreads have blown out; for example, on a Baaa1 rated bond from a stable non-financial like ATT or Verizon, you can get yields approaching 10%. Junk like Beazer or Hovnanian yields close to 40%.
I am mighty tempted to start getting in on the higher-rated stuff. If you are willing to bet that the entire business structure of the U.S. doesn't implode, these bonds might pay handsomely.
I'd read the prospectus carefully, though. And make sure that you understand all the risks of bond investing - you have interest rate risk and some bonds are callable.
"Economists such as Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard University professor, and Joseph Stiglitz, a Columbia University professor and Nobel Prize winner, have called for at least $1 trillion in government spending to spur the economy."
Hey guys - you've done that already - just gave it to the wrong people - I believe Senator Obama voting in the affirmative
WASHINGTON People will soon be able to carry concealed, loaded guns in most national parks and wildlife refuges.
The Bush administration said Friday it is overturning a 25-year-old federal rule that severely restricts loaded guns in national parks.
Under a rule to take effect in January, visitors will be able to carry a loaded gun into a park or wildlife refuge but only if the person has a permit for a concealed weapon and if the state where the park or refuge is located also allows concealed firearms.
Why? Partially because the NPS and other Park people do not have the staff to patrol them. Add the influx of growers etc.
Five or 10 years from now, when the financial crisis has ended and housing prices are up smartly once more, we will look in the rearview mirror and realize that we missed a golden age for first-time home buyers.
I just don't know how The Onion can compete with reality here.
I really enjoy the community here at CR, and it's been a fun and interesting year to be here. Profitable, too.
I'm a little like Fleckenstein now in that I'm weighed down by all the economic misery and the added burdens of trying to fight the Fed shorting. Before this year, I was always mostly a long-term investor.
I'm going to focus on the long-term again with this strategy for 2009.
30% in single-short ETFs of weak asset classes, mainly emerging markets (EUM) and tech (PSQ). Although I know small-caps are very weak, the speculation and manipulation of the R2000 has made shorting it a hassle. But I'll probably look for opportunities to go into RWM. Tech is going down hard in 2009, just like 2001 and maybe worse. I can't see anything that will hold tech up all year.
30% in precious metals, mainly miners (SLW, GDX).
30% in commodities, mainly energy (DBE).
10-15% in cash for opportunistic trading.
I expect the single shorts to be up 20% this time next year.
I expect precious metals to be up 30-40% over the next year and maybe a double over the next two years.
I expect oil and commodities to be up 20-30% over the next year and maybe 50% over two years.
And that's enough for me. Good luck to all in 2009. I'll continue to share ideas, even if I hope to trade and watch the tape less.
I'm really sad about what's in store for a lot of honest, hard-working Americans in 2009. I particularly feel sorry for parents with small children.
Just got my Blue Cross/Blue Shield health insurance premium notice for 2009. For just a couple living in NYC metro. Monthly premium goes from $1,600 to $1,900. THANK GOD IT'S ALL TAX-DEDUCTIBLE AND UNCLE WILL BAIL ME OUT!
For the first time in 2009, I'll be paying more for health insurance than for mortgage. Health insurance is going to be the hardest part for all those people losing their jobs.
I am mighty tempted to start getting in on the higher-rated stuff
central_scrutinizer
I'm already there. But walking carefully bcs I'm not a paper person and risks have to be assumed. I am of the opinion things are bad; but, the sky wont fall..if it does than nothing really matters anyways
I was born in 1966. My dad was farm folk, my mom from union shipyard folk. Us kids grew up knowing where our food came from, knowing how to shop bargain racks & thrift stores before paying retail for soemthing, even when we had money to pick & choose. We ate healthy food since my parents were also hippies and dedicated to living low on the land (sort of). I grew up in the aftermath of the Boeing crisis in Seattle. In my elementary school, reps from the food bank would come show kids how to make food from government commodities.
I looked at the boom times in my life as a bonus. It was fun to work for a dot com, fun to fill my tank and my pantry without looking at the price tag.
But now that we're heading down the economic drain, I sure am grateful to have grown up poor. So many of my friends (and family) don't have a clue how to do it, and are already strapped buying packaged crap at Walmart.
I just can't imagine the bulk of these folk lining up to take po'folk cooking classes....
For the first time in 2009, I'll be paying more for health insurance than for mortgage. Health insurance is going to be the hardest part for all those people losing their jobs.
rich | 12.06.08 - 11:57 am |
If you don't have a lot of money, get the health insurance with a big deductable - like $5,000. That way, you won't have to live the rest of you life judgement proof.
If you don't have a lot of money, get the health insurance with a big deductable - like $5,000. That way, you won't have to live the rest of you life judgement proof.
Been there, done that. High-deductible is not as cheap as you think, at least here in NYC. I hate the big premiums for the standard plan. But I love the 100% tax-deduction for self-employed.
Joanna - Reminds me..I was watching a TV show 'bout a year ago. It was about kids and healthy eating and food.
They bused a load of inner city kids to the country. One of the little guys while, walking through a farmers field, says "Geezz, I thought peas come from cans"
As a state employee, I don't bother to look at my retirement fund statements. Hell, we're waiting to get the memo telling us we have to work less hours, and then the one starting the layoffs.
My motto is that if it ain't in your hands, then it ain't your money.
I contribute to the fund, because I have no choice, but I stay out of any paper games until I feel my household is maxed out with tangible assets like a root cellar, strategic cash stash, etc. What good is it to have all the paper "money" when you have nothing in your hands to carry you through when it vanishes?
Nova,
The joke is that as a baby boomer, both my parents had to work in the '60's. Very few stay at home moms. Many worked part-time or full-time. The difference was "structured" activity was running around the neighborhood and playing outdoor games. But the older neighbors kept an eye on us kids and the older siblings were the "parents" and given the power to discipline. Babysitting was a moneymaker, .25cents an hour back then. I never felt fear of my life. Hollywood has created a culture of fear, violence, anger, lack of respect for humanity. Now, we're in an era of distrust and stranger danger....
I think once Johnny Carson joked about spaghetti trees and a whole bunch of people thought that they were real.
Farming is hard, and takes perpetual dedication, which most years, I just don't have. It also take expertise--just why haven't my pecan trees produced anything, even tho they were supposed to 5 years ago? Seems you have to plant different types and they spew pollen at different times, and I forget.
and why is the best tangerine tree pithy this year?
Some years I really get in the mood and things look and taste fabulous. And remember my grandparents grew stuff, so I had a slight example. This is not something you can do successfully from the get go, unless you are the Mozart of gardening.
ova writes:
For the first time in 2009, I'll be paying more for health insurance than for mortgage
Some advice for homeowners:
I you carry P&C insurance and have replacement coverage you can save a wack of coin simply because construction costs have fallen 50-60% b/c of materials prices. You should expect to pay $100-200 less upon renewal but you have to ask!
And yeah, this boomer's mom always worked, but the grandparents were functional until I got into my early teens and the neighbors did know us and each other, and we ran all over the place. I was told repeatedly to never take candy from a stranger, but didn't quite understand why, until much later.
ova, very interesting. I'm planning a PCT '09 thru hike, and had always wondered about rbinging along a handgun for bear protection, even though i know it's illegal and most pct'ers have said it's unnecessary
HMO stocks are dirt cheap now. HUM, UNH, others with P/Es of six. Supposedly they are doing well in raising rates and having them stick. I've been nibbling, despite my intense hate for those rat bastards.
U-6 is not only going up, it is accelerating...the YoY change is just over a 50% rate of increase (U-6 unadjusted, from 11/2007 8.1% to 11/2008 12.2%). Makes an ugly graph.
All this talk about insurance reminds me of a joke I heard back when AIG looked like it was going to implode. (Of course it still may; yours and my tax dollars are going to prop it up for a while longer)
First guy - "hey, do you know that your life insurer is AIG and they invested heavily in MBS? Without a bailout, they're toast"
We've been practicing for a few years now, and still lose an entire crop once in a while. This year our tomatoes got the blight, so no sauce for canning. Last year the corn didn't ripen in time.
Sure is a learning experience about diversifying, and when to stop tring a particular variety in favor of a hardier one.
We document everything, weigh every harvest, keep expense receipts, so we can repeat what works, learn from our mistakes, and hopefully share some of the easier stuff to learn.
As much as I liked having a milk cow, we learned that it's more cost effective to use our grass to raise beef, and pay a local dairy for milk.
We also learned how important it is not to try and grow everything ourselves. It was a bad year for some fruit trees, but some folks had too much. We ended up getting hundreds of pounds of apples & grapes picked and delivered to our back porch by a neighbor. Our cost? hanging out with a few beers and chatting over the back fence, plus a dozen eggs every couple weeks.
But yeah, people just can't jump into growing their own food, at least not in a way to count on it, without practice. Start small, tomatoes in a bucket, garlic, potatoes, the easy stuff. What works, and what you like to eat...plant more next year.
I'm always amazed and amused that one of my best profit-making ventures has been selling eggs to co-workers. My hens, the coop, feed, all paid for. Plus we have a great protein source and the hens keep the cows & pony healthier by eating parasites in the grass.
My girlfriend in West Va, who pretends to garden, but always has everything eaten by deer and such, started to do the chicken thing and at first they had lots of eggs, but now very few and she hasn't the faintest idea why.
My broccoli and cabbages are doing well. Gonna buy some baby tomato plants.
Almost forgot - if anyone is interested, here's our farm blog. Lots of critter pics this time of year, since it's slow, but poke around for garden/building stuff, or check out the eat local links on the side to find good food in your area...
Aline van Duyn had an excellent summary article in yesterday's Financial Times regarding the problems of the markets for securitized loans. A) "These markets face a huge problem." B) It sounds unsolvable because there is no solution except one posed by a slow, painful unwinding process that will involve huge losses on the part of the holders of this stuff as the securitized "assets" are gradually sold off at heavy discounts over the next umpteen years.
El Problemo: Potential private buyers are non-existent. Only buyer in sight: you guessed it, gummint. Timothy Ryan, Securities Industry Association: "Eventually, the government will have to buy. We have not had much luck with the current administration (read Hank Paulson) but [we] are all over the next administration [to get them to buy securities]."
Well, well, well . . . Thank you, FT for that update.
Tanta has passed but is not gone in Spirit or Inspiration.
She was and remains uniquely special.
How about editing her posts into books entitled "Tanta's Book Of Wisdom for...(fill in the target audience)" like H. Jackson Brown's immensely popular series of inspirational paperbacks and calenders.
Most the work has been done for you especially if you include many of the most worthwhile and insightful comments like many of those here today.
What she had to say should be shared beyond this blogshpere community, imho.
i expect a fist bump and big hug if we see each other in mpig garb!
more sat rock blogging in these coming Demon Days, this is a weird blend of live and anime', very positive and inspirational from the halfway point to the end. to me at least.
Las Vegas airport officials say passenger traffic at the city's major airport declined 12.8 percent in October compared to the same month one year ago, the 12th straight monthly decline.
lawyerliz(Unrated) writes:
My girlfriend in West Va, who pretends to garden, but always has everything eaten by deer and such, started to do the chicken thing and at first they had lots of eggs, but now very few and she hasn't the faintest idea why.
lawyerliz | 12.06.08 - 12:28 pm | #
If she is in W Va - that's plenty rural to find answers, have her call her extension agent [usually associated w/ a state uni] - they should know & answer for free.
As far as deer - you need a VERY high fence all around the garden to keep the deer out with something like barbed wire at the top. Talking six feet high minimum - maybe even eight feet.
Of course if she has bears - they'll blow through that like it was gauze.
If she is really cleaver - you house the chicken coup in the garden (chickens fenced inside) - they will debug a garden in a couple days. They LOVE potato bugs.
I just want to say that I came here 2 years ago on a link from E Supkis. Looking for a place of sanity and thoughtfulness in what was clearly an insane economy/market. I found what I was looking for along with some great songs, funny stories... and the occasional good market advice.
It took me months to post, because I felt like I had to read all the old comments before I could intrude on what was a pretty tight community.
I've learned a lot, bored my friends, scared my parents (when my 90 year old grand-dad commented on the coming darkness over Xmas dinner in '06), and I hope occasionally contributed to this blog. To all the folks who comment here- thanks and enjoy the holidays! I'll get to see my own Tanta (an aunt who goes by the same :^) this winter.
I have such great memories of Tanta-Doris writing, and she has left so much for us that I still guide people to her UberNerd posts.
I never thought I would have friends ask about mortgage underwriting-servicing-foreclosure.
optimader: Of course the Zevon song that comes to MY mind is "My shit's fucked up." YouTube - Which could refer either to Tanta's or the economy's health. The story is that his doctor was worried that his calm demeanor meant that Zevon wasn't taking his diagnosis seriously enough. Apparantly, giving doc his last two albums showed that a diagnosis of incurable cancer simply wasn't going to make him much more depressed than he already was.
Hi Matthew.dk .... my kids pronounced it "Tanta" although it is indeed spelled "Tante" in Danish - Norma pronounced it almost in reverse "Tenta" if my memory serves. I can't ask her because she died after a recurrance of cancer in 2000.
Phonetically to her family and friends is it "Tahn-tuh".
We sent some time on the subject this weekend at her memorials so I thought I'd share.
emo??
CCR + Tanta rocks
The title means "So much loneliness"...
-Jaso
good morning all
just when i thought there were no bffs i find georgia did it again.geez.
Good morning CR, it is a little creepy that CCR (same song) is brought up here and at Financial Armageddon in the same morning.....
Just saying....
Financial Armageddon
After Paulson went to China a few days ago, Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan stated the financial crisis as the most pressing task that we are facing and urged the U.S. to protect Chinese assets in that country.
What do they mean by "Chinese assets"?
China, U.S. Deepen Financial Ties, Aid Global Trade (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
btw, 'Morning, CR.....there's nothing quite like a beautiful morning in the desert.
thanks CR! we all miss Tanta so much...
and German too.
morning
Christmas is almost here.,
Much more grim news of the sort we've
had recently and we'll be singing Dylan's "The Ballad of Hollis Brown"
Your grass is turning black
and there's no water in your well
you spent your last lone dollar on
Seven shotgun shells.
Shnaps made Tanta a video!
Enjoy:
YouTube - Ay Amor, me duele tanta!
What do they mean by "Chinese assets"?
Er... Obama, the Clintons, Bush, Paulson, Bennie B.
etc., etc., etc.,
May I have another fish head with my rice?
This still cannot be beaten:
YouTube - IGGY POP and the STOOGES "search and destroy"
C
Re: jobs report
I think the government should start reporting job losses based on how many jobs they realized were lost since the last report. So...
-533k for November
-80k for October revision
-129k for September revision
=-742,000 jobs the gov't realized were lost.
Then if you want to strip out the B/D adjustments, which were:
+30k November
+71k October
+42k September
Stripping out just November's adjustment:
-773,000 jobs lost from the October to November jobs report.
I admit that my favorite filk song posted here is this one from max
Max writes:
This one was inspired by something posted to Mr. Coté's blog earlier this week:
CDO's Defective
Bear Stearns has one little defect.
MBS risk model's incorrect.
The LIBOR soars just as the ARMs reset.
The Chinese won't budge on the yuan peg.
Now the CDO's defective
Hedgies in cahoots
Made the CDO defective
When the rates shoot shoot shoot shoot
They didn't think it could get up so far
When they used a HELOC for the family car
Long shot bet on a jumping yen
Printing presses being run by Ben
Flood of liquidity funding LBOs
But the ABX keeps hitting new lows
Your payments jump as you hit 110%
The neg-am's done, better find a place to rent
I don't know how much more the economy can take.
The foreclosures mount while they're hiking the rate.
Now the CDO's defective
Dow goes down the tubes
Since the CDO's defective
And the rates shoot shoot shoot shoot
Everyone decided it was time to sell
The breakers tripped before the closing bell
You think your money's safe but your pension plan's been funding it.
Now the PBGC's defunct you can forget about retirement.
How can you pay it off when the credit card has no limit?
Got another paycheck but the money's already spent.
The congress schedules hearings to appease the baby boomers
Who want to know the truth about their money's dissapearance.
Though it nearly took a lifetime to earn it and save
It only took one malinvestment to lose it away.
Because the CDO's defective
Who can you sue?
Since the CDO's defective
Nobody thought it could go on so long
But they kept on spending 'till the money was gone.
Nice schnapster, but just once I'd like a writhing man also. Or, a man & woman both writhing.
Does anyone know where I can find a link/story related to the increasing of the leverage ceiling by Bush administration/Paulson?
Much appreciated
CR,
You can't sing enough praises for Tanta.
I hope that you continue to mention her and cite her thoughts.
Miss you at AB, by the way.
Best,
I see a dead cat a risin'
Shouldn't that be "...black swan a risin'?"
Jim A, thanks for the compliment.
F/U from an earlier post...
CR
Company: Republic Windows?
Bank: BofA?
ok, some debt rock blogging for ac with thoughts on last nights thread.
Yeah yeah yeah
I'll pay
When Tomorrow
Tomorrow comes today
YouTube -
GiezCubed - if you're referring to the relaxation of leverage requirements on the investment banks, it was done by the SEC under Commissioner Donaldson in 2004.
Paulson was in on it - but as the head of Goldman Sachs, the largest of the banks getting the concession.
No, the word for "aunt" in Danish is actually "tante" - anyway across the world we all saw Tanta as a distant aunt....
I always thought that Tanta was a word play on the ancient Greek myth about Tantalus, who had to stand in a pool of water beneath a fruit tree with low branches. If he reached for the fruits, the branches raised from his grasp; and if he bent down to drink, the water receded. Temptation but never satisfaction. Take care out there...
s0mebody writes:
Re: jobs report
In spite of teh DoL report, I still think the number was around -627; but, oh well.
Here is some good stuff on employment trajectory: Fed blog conclusion its worse than other recessions
macroblog: The recession in pictorial context
serf Alan, i just read what you wrote last nite about the need for effective community leadership.
while i agree with morocco that ideally we need to be able to understand that we do not really need leadership in order to live harmoniously with others, i also see the wisdom of your point.
perhaps we need leaders who lead us to ween ourselves of the need for leadership?
it was inspiring to read that -- thank you for reminding me.
cheers
China Assets......Paulson, The US Treasury, The FED, Hil and Bill, The entire Bush Family, The US Garbage that can be shipped back to us as tainted fertilizer, tainted dog food, tainted baby formula, tainted paint, tainted food, etc etc etc
Barley @ 9:33,
Errrrrrr, Follow-Up??
Back in the mid 1980s I was looking to buy my first new car. One auto salesman stated that it was sound financially to buy a car and use credit because one could write off the interest payments on one's income taxes. Another salesmen upon hearing that I would pay cash looked surprised and suddenly became much more enthused that I a would actually purchase a car. When I purchased a car at yet another car dealer, they give a strong pitch that I should finance the purchase. Nope, not going to do that.
Here is the Tanta Saturday Box of Rocks Blogging post that inspired the above. Calculated Risk: Saturday Box of Rocks Blogging
OT, except as relates to real economy Pacific trade, China exim, fracturing:
Pacific Shipper Online -- Maersk posts profit, will close China center
C
CR et al,
What is the Intellectual Property status of the Haloscan comments for a CR post?
(And if we're talking word plays, I'm tempted to start using "Viva Tanta" as a comment trailer.)
Hoisting a cup of bongwater in Tanta's memory.
What a surprise! Saturday rock blogging. Thank you.
China Assets ... that would be the US dollars that Bernanke is getting ready to devalue in a major way.
comrade T, thanks.
and per your statement - "perhaps we need leaders who lead us to ween ourselves of the need for leadership?"
exactly! nurturing radical self reliance and core principles in the mentoring of other potential leaders is a key to sustainability. of course i don't see the need for leaders disappearing in my life span.
Re: my <a href=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MjL5IX_wbHM">Ay Amor, me duele tanta! video...
That title translates to: "Oh, my love, I hurt so (much)"
First, I know it should be tanto since it is modifiying a masculine verb. But that's the least of the liberties I took in my "translation" of Shakira's lyrics.
For those who don't "get" it...at the time, IndyMac's equity rating had been downgraded to one level of junk by Moody's. Michael Perry (IndyMac's CEO at the time, who might be eating canned Alpo now, for all I know) decided to drop Moody's following this action. So Alejando Sanz represents Perry, and Shakira is Moody's.
Most of the "psuedo-translated" lyrics mock a variety of horseshit comments that Perry fed to the media and various analysts covering IndyMac right up until the day it became the second largest bank failure in history.
Any Arcanum people commenting here?
One Miami-based hedge fund is bucking the industry-wide downturn with a real estate investment trust vehicle. Arcanum Capital Managements nine-month old REIT Investment Fund returned an estimated 20.5% last month, bringing its year-to-date gains to about 49%.
"i don't see the need for leaders disappearing in my life span."
yes, perhaps.
we all have our roles yes?
what is important methinks, is that we begin to understand that they are just roles, and understand that underneath them, we are all created equal.
and that those roles are interchangable, just like costumes.
e.g. i can be a leader one day and a janitor the next...
all the world's a stage
OT- just now on fox news, a guy from morningstar said that morgan stanley bond is yielding 15-16% right now. what does it mean ? is this type of investments not available to individual investors ?
btw, this same guy also said that we are on a v-shape recovery.
thanks.
CR - yer killin me. Everytime I think about that brilliant life cut short...
Why should we wait until tragedy to show our appreciation? I'd put your smiling face right up there next to Tanta's and let us all smile back at you too.
GiezCubed(Unrated) writes:
\tDoes anyone know where I can find a link/story related to the increasing of the leverage ceiling by Bush administration/Paulson?
GiezCubed | 12.06.08 - 9:21 am | #
Fair Economist(Unrated) writes:
in 2004.
\tGiezCubed - if you're referring to the relaxation of leverage requirements on the investment banks, it was done by the SEC under Commissioner Donaldson
Paulson was in on it - but as the head of Goldman Sachs, the largest of the banks getting the concession.
Fair Economist | Homepage | 12.06.08 - 9:36 am | #
I read the article cited above by FE, but I hadn't read the letter that Leonard Bole wrote to SEC recommending against the rule change. Sadly, the value of his comments were recognized by most only after what he was concerned about came true.
Barley | 12.06.08 - 9:46 am | #
If the revisions are anything like they were for September you may have been on the low side!
CR-
Please accept my condolences on the loss of your good friend. Feel free
to post as much as you want about Tanta. I am sure we all are here for you the way you are here for us.
May G-d bless Tanta's soul.
Barley | 12.06.08 - 9:46 am | #
Nice link to macroblog, thanks - think I will go update my CIVPART/EMRATIO spread plots...mebbe look at U-6 rates of change.
I admit that my favorite filk song posted here is this one from max
Oh, yeah! I forgot about that one. Here's another blast from the past:
Bubble Dance
We can buy if we want to
We can leave the bears behind
'Cause the bears don't own and if they don't own
Well that ain't no investment advice
We can buy where we want to
A place with a three hour drive
And we can act like we still live in the city
Try to keep up with our former lives
But, we can buy
Acheter!
We'll buy the stuff that we want to
You look good and so do I
And we can wear Armani from our heads to our feet
I really need a Gucci tie
We'll drive Humvees if we want to
Nevermind the big gas bill
And we'll spend our weekends at Lowes and Whole Foods
Cause we've got a big trunk to fill
I say, we can buy, we can buy
Our finances are out of control
We can buy, we can buy
Take out another HELOC loan
We can buy, we can buy
Take another trip to France
We can buy, we can buy
We'll just have to re-fin-a-a-ance
It's the Bubble Dance
It's the Bubble Dance
It's the Bubble Dance
B-b-b-b-U-u-u-u-B-b-b-b-B-b-b-b-U-u-u-u-L-l-l-l-E-e-e-e
Bubble, Dance!
We'll buy two or three if we want to
There's a hundred people in line
We were told to abuse it, our LO said to do it
If the price goes up we'll be alright
I say, we can buy if we want to
We can leave the bears behind
Cause the price goes up, it always goes up
This investment has no downside
Is it safe to buy?
this cracked me up, TARP form by vanity fair. "Dear Corporate Scion", hee hee -
404 Not Found
Ainda tenho muitas saudades de Tanta -- quem tinha paciencia com a gente nessa locura....
~e
"Bubble Dance" is a flashback from the heady days of Rock Blogging: April 2007. If you read the comments on that thread, you'll also discover my classic rewrite of Berlin's "The Metro," and Stagflationary Mark's parody of J Geils "Centerfold."
Good times.
citizen energyecon - I'm still confused why my number was so wrong. But heh a reasoned est. is better than nothing at all.
I think December will be stratopheric. I'm seeing broad 7-10% cuts everywhere. Worse than the tech bubble where one sector was killed and others took some hits along the way. This time it is bigger, boader, wider, deeper.
January will be even worse as retail and some service sector jobs get hacked back.
Current U6 = 12%, no?
I have a friend in the rag trade - they are eliminating the sales staff commissions. They now work on a small draw, only. Ouch. Intention - get folks to quit.
The macroblog put things in a nice prespective.
"Hello/ Goodbye" - Beatles
Bulls say high/ Bears say low
Bears say "why?"/ Bulls say "I don't know"
Oh No
Bears say Goodbye/ and Bulls say Hello
Was out with a buddy of mine last night. Someone who knows my take on housing, etc. He implored me to buy a house in Seattle NOW because prices just can't possibly fall any further once 4.5% rates kick in. He's a pretty bright guy, cognitive scientist and all, but he can't get his head around prices falling drastically. This propaganda is tough to kill.
Really great Max.
I personally would rather be alive and obscure, but let me point out that Tanta achieved true greatness and fame after she got sick--but not too sick to post--and then had the time to do all her famous posts.
Our gain.
I wish I could write parady songs like that!
but let me point out that Tanta achieved true greatness and fame
And through it all, her built-in humility wouldn't let her quite believe it. I remember a few posts where she felt like she was stating the obvious, but she still got accolades from places like the Fed and the SEC. Part of that was due to her writing style and her ability to make difficult subjects understandable, but these were the guys that were supposed to understand the hard stuff! I think that scared the shit out of her, and kept her from accepting her fame as something of value.
She was the only sane person in the asylum; if that's a claim to fame, I don't think she wanted it.
Thank you! Nice touch
C
Maersk, is huge in the US as far as port facilities. They also ship a lot of heavy military equipment (sea lift) to the US in the Middle East.
I believe they spent a lot of money and have a big presence in Charleston, along with a Chinese company.
Good one max!
I'm about ready to start a day of maximizing my infrastructure. No better send off than a shot of CR!
My partner & I have a pocket farm that is getting close to providing a lot of food year-round. We keep making improvements that will lessen our need for inputs, time & labor. And it's very fun as well - 3500 sf of garden, 2 beef cows, a laying flock, fruit trees, beehive, neighbors we barter with, etc. I've learned serious building and farming skills that I can teach too.
We're hoping when we're too old to farm, we can trade the place in as a dowry and retire to a small place with just a kitchen garden and small flock.
What's trippy is that the value of our place keeps going up while most other houses are dropping. We bought at a good rate, and kept within an amount we can handle on one income if need be.
We don't live rich, but we live well. Invest in high quality equipment and clothing, so we can get our money's worth out of it. We eat good food so we can maximize our health as we age. Stuff like that.
The community organizer thing is on our minds too. I don't care to be a leader, but it's in the back of my mind that we may have the combination of knowledge that people need to feed themselves cheaply on a small place.
CR, thanks for the memories, I had almost forgotten about that one.
I miss Tanta, I can only imagine what she would think (and better yet write) about the way this has all played out.
I believe that she is smiling down on all of us up there. Or maybe having a good laugh!
Put in a good word for us bloggers.
Worst job loss since 1974. I was a highschool senior in a Chicago-burb As a babyboomer I remember that the highschool didn't have enough room and had two sessions;morning and afternoon. Everything was expensive. But, as a product of parents who were depression era children, the hard times were always there. My mom was raised on a family farm in the midwest. During the depression she remembered people begging to do a day's work on the farm for a meal. They'd mark the gate as a good place to stop.
My childhood Christmases were about gifts of need; coats, boots, homemade scarves and if times were "good" aka grandparents gave my parents money for the kids, I'd get a toy.
I barely remember my grandparents. My siblings remember lovingly a grandma for her warmth and kindness, not what she gave them. Her gifts were to my parents to help on a downpayment; hard-earned savings passed on for the future of her family.
My children have experienced many of their "wants" and needs met. I've worked hard to live within my means and believed in saving. I told my inlaws give the kids savings bonds as presents for their future. They'll be thankful and remember your generousity when they cash them for college expenses. My kids were thankful and their grandparents have long passed.
Yet, I wonder, have I prepared them for this severe economic downturn? The difference this time around, the parents, have been tapped out in paying for education, healthcare, and homes that have been overpriced since the 1980's. We started out with double-digit interest on mortgages. And forced into a cycle of refinancing for lower interest rates and pay for college for our kids. Savings and home equity wiped-out.
The baby boomers are in fear as the savings that paid for outrageous education costs, cars that equal the cost of a downpayment on a house, bread at $4 a loaf, 6 years of the outrageous energy profits, and real estate taxes thru the roof has emptied our pockets. Many of us live paycheck to paycheck. The government and corporate greed has sucked us dry. Looted our reitrement for stupid wars, corporate giveaways, no-bid MIC contracts. Encouraged Corporate greed of triple digit profits, ponzi scams, and creative accounting. Labor wages not increasing to true inflation, government fake CPI, scamming the worker, and stealing for too long. CEO's not going to jail, but getting bailouts and a wink and a nod. Sending our jobs overseas, cheap and dangerous foreign crapola shipped to our shores for us to consume. Changing american workers into a GDP of 70% consumerism. The final kicker, foreign industry allowed in our country at non-union minimum wage jobs.
I can't afford these bozos in government. The price tag has been too high for too long. Greed has nearly devoured the golden goose; the middle class.
I'm not sure -- I might prefer tarring and feathering Cramer to Kudlow. Can't decide who's the bigger buffoon, though tarring & feathering might not be enough, depending on the heat of the tar . . . . .
The staggering distortion to me is the disconnect between Treasuries and all other fixed income investments. With the 10-Yr Treasury at 3%, I'm having a hard time understanding corporate yields up in double-digits . . . . . . . I know of one profitable investment grade mid cap company with a stable business mix and debt net of cash is close to ZERO and the bonds yield north of 9%.
Now, the capital markets may be correct and this may be a deflationary depression on par with the 1930s, but I am rather surprised that the capital markets are discounting that outcome with such a high level of probability - I'd put the odds at 20%-30%, and the capital markets are up in the 80%-95% range, IMO.
Whoa, thought it was a nightmare,
Lo, it's all so true,
They told me, "Don't go walkin' slow
'Cause Devil's on the loose."
Better run through the jungle,
Better run through the jungle,
Better run through the jungle,
Whoa, Don't look back to see.
Thought I heard a rumblin'
Callin' to my name,
Two hundred million guns are loaded
Satan cries, "Take aim!"
Better run through the jungle,
Better run through the jungle,
Better run through the jungle,
Whoa, Don't look back to see.
Over on the mountain
Thunder Magic Spoke,
"Let the people know my wisdom,
Fill the land with smoke."
Thup thup thup,
the helicopters are warming up, and I will leave you with my favorite Col. Kilgore quote:
Someday this war's gonna end...
The Fool on the Hill
Day after day,
Alone on the Hill,
The man with the foolish beard is buying Treasury Bills
But nobody wants to know him,
They can see that he's just a fool,
And he never gives an answer,
But the fool on the Hill,
Sees the banks going down,
And the eyes in his head,
See the swaps spinning 'round.
Well on the way,
MBS in a cloud,
The man of a 1000 'copters talking perfectly loud
But nobody ever hears him,
Or the cash he appears to make,
And he never seems to notice,
But the fool on the hill,
Sees the banks going down,
And the eyes in his head,
See the swaps spinning 'round.
And nobody seems to like him,
They can tell what he wants to do,
And he never shows his assets,
But the fool on the hill,
Sees the banks going down,
And the eyes in his head,
See the swaps spinning 'round.
Ooh, ooh,
Round and down and round.
And he never listens to them,
He knows that they're in the stool
They don't like him,
The fool on the hill
Sees the banks going down,
And the eyes in his head,
See the swaps spinning 'round.
Ooh,
Round and down and round
On this news two things come to mind:
1. It not just hedgies!
2. Whats in your wallet?
"In a notice to employees this week, Mervyns said it was temporarily blocking employees from cashing out their 401(k) funds.
"Due to the current economic climate, not all of the 401(k) funds are available for immediate liquidation," the company said."
Mervyns tells employees they can't withdraw all their 401(k) funds | PressDemocrat.com | The Press Democrat | Santa Rosa, CA
That means the funds are gone, hunh?
Australia caved:
"The Australian government has rescued its car dealers from going bankrupt by giving them a much-awaited $2 billion financial package."
domain-b.com : Australian car dealers get $2 billion lifeline
Wow Barley! Nothing like insult to injury. I love the sage advice from the financial planner at the end of the article. Yep, it's all the employees' fault. Douchebag.
Whatever the factors involved, Mervyns' move is a reminder that workers need to understand where they are investing retirement money, said Bruce Dzieza, president of Willow Creek Financial Services of Sebastopol.
"The warning here is people should read their prospectus before they make their investment choices," he said.
rps | 12.06.08 - 11:38 am
Great post as was Joanna's for me.
I think what my daughters, the kids coming of age, missed, was parent time. For the most part, none of my peers were there. Why? 2 income families. The substitute? A structured life of classes an activities for the kids.
That's crazy! Check out GloomBoom.com
"The warning here is people should read their prospectus before they make their investment choices," he said.
Max | Homepage | 12.06.08 - 11:47 am |
My translation: Hey little people. You are going to screwed no matter what you do.
"The Australian government has rescued its car dealers from going bankrupt by giving them a much-awaited $2 billion financial package."
Yeah, but those are Australian dollars.
Nada nesse mundo irá me fazer
Esquecer você
Very Nice, CR! very...
just now on fox news, a guy from morningstar said that morgan stanley bond is yielding 15-16% right now
Not sure about that particular fund, but my guess is that it is a high yield corporate bond fund.
Corporate bond spreads have blown out; for example, on a Baaa1 rated bond from a stable non-financial like ATT or Verizon, you can get yields approaching 10%. Junk like Beazer or Hovnanian yields close to 40%.
I am mighty tempted to start getting in on the higher-rated stuff. If you are willing to bet that the entire business structure of the U.S. doesn't implode, these bonds might pay handsomely.
I'd read the prospectus carefully, though. And make sure that you understand all the risks of bond investing - you have interest rate risk and some bonds are callable.
From Bloomberg
"Economists such as Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard University professor, and Joseph Stiglitz, a Columbia University professor and Nobel Prize winner, have called for at least $1 trillion in government spending to spur the economy."
Hey guys - you've done that already - just gave it to the wrong people - I believe Senator Obama voting in the affirmative
My translation: Hey little people. You are going to screwed no matter what you do.
Not just yours. Kinda defeats the purpose of a 401k if the company you work for can take it away. Reminds me of those pension plans.
Why invest or save at all? The spenders get bailed out; what do the savers get? Answer: bailed out after their savings are stolen.
WASHINGTON People will soon be able to carry concealed, loaded guns in most national parks and wildlife refuges.
The Bush administration said Friday it is overturning a 25-year-old federal rule that severely restricts loaded guns in national parks.
Under a rule to take effect in January, visitors will be able to carry a loaded gun into a park or wildlife refuge but only if the person has a permit for a concealed weapon and if the state where the park or refuge is located also allows concealed firearms.
Why? Partially because the NPS and other Park people do not have the staff to patrol them. Add the influx of growers etc.
Looking at all the bad news, the NYTimes finds the only reasonable conclusion is: Time to Buy That First House!
Five or 10 years from now, when the financial crisis has ended and housing prices are up smartly once more, we will look in the rearview mirror and realize that we missed a golden age for first-time home buyers.
I just don't know how The Onion can compete with reality here.
I really enjoy the community here at CR, and it's been a fun and interesting year to be here. Profitable, too.
I'm a little like Fleckenstein now in that I'm weighed down by all the economic misery and the added burdens of trying to fight the Fed shorting. Before this year, I was always mostly a long-term investor.
I'm going to focus on the long-term again with this strategy for 2009.
30% in single-short ETFs of weak asset classes, mainly emerging markets (EUM) and tech (PSQ). Although I know small-caps are very weak, the speculation and manipulation of the R2000 has made shorting it a hassle. But I'll probably look for opportunities to go into RWM. Tech is going down hard in 2009, just like 2001 and maybe worse. I can't see anything that will hold tech up all year.
30% in precious metals, mainly miners (SLW, GDX).
30% in commodities, mainly energy (DBE).
10-15% in cash for opportunistic trading.
I expect the single shorts to be up 20% this time next year.
I expect precious metals to be up 30-40% over the next year and maybe a double over the next two years.
I expect oil and commodities to be up 20-30% over the next year and maybe 50% over two years.
And that's enough for me. Good luck to all in 2009. I'll continue to share ideas, even if I hope to trade and watch the tape less.
I'm really sad about what's in store for a lot of honest, hard-working Americans in 2009. I particularly feel sorry for parents with small children.
Just got my Blue Cross/Blue Shield health insurance premium notice for 2009. For just a couple living in NYC metro. Monthly premium goes from $1,600 to $1,900. THANK GOD IT'S ALL TAX-DEDUCTIBLE AND UNCLE WILL BAIL ME OUT!
For the first time in 2009, I'll be paying more for health insurance than for mortgage. Health insurance is going to be the hardest part for all those people losing their jobs.
I am mighty tempted to start getting in on the higher-rated stuff
central_scrutinizer
I'm already there. But walking carefully bcs I'm not a paper person and risks have to be assumed. I am of the opinion things are bad; but, the sky wont fall..if it does than nothing really matters anyways
I was born in 1966. My dad was farm folk, my mom from union shipyard folk. Us kids grew up knowing where our food came from, knowing how to shop bargain racks & thrift stores before paying retail for soemthing, even when we had money to pick & choose. We ate healthy food since my parents were also hippies and dedicated to living low on the land (sort of). I grew up in the aftermath of the Boeing crisis in Seattle. In my elementary school, reps from the food bank would come show kids how to make food from government commodities.
I looked at the boom times in my life as a bonus. It was fun to work for a dot com, fun to fill my tank and my pantry without looking at the price tag.
But now that we're heading down the economic drain, I sure am grateful to have grown up poor. So many of my friends (and family) don't have a clue how to do it, and are already strapped buying packaged crap at Walmart.
I just can't imagine the bulk of these folk lining up to take po'folk cooking classes....
<i>and German too.</i>
In high German it is Tante but I am quite certain that Tanta used the Allemanisch version from her ancestors.
For the first time in 2009, I'll be paying more for health insurance than for mortgage. Health insurance is going to be the hardest part for all those people losing their jobs.
rich | 12.06.08 - 11:57 am |
If you don't have a lot of money, get the health insurance with a big deductable - like $5,000. That way, you won't have to live the rest of you life judgement proof.
lawyerliz writes:
That means the funds are gone, hunh?
It may indicate that we a near a stock market bottom, no?
Been there, done that. High-deductible is not as cheap as you think, at least here in NYC. I hate the big premiums for the standard plan. But I love the 100% tax-deduction for self-employed.
Joanna - Reminds me..I was watching a TV show 'bout a year ago. It was about kids and healthy eating and food.
They bused a load of inner city kids to the country. One of the little guys while, walking through a farmers field, says "Geezz, I thought peas come from cans"
"Tanta Saudade" is the title of a song by Chico Buarque.
Tanta Saudade means So much "saudade". Saudade is almost untranslatable .... sorrow, nostalgia. I thought it was an appropriate farewell.
As a state employee, I don't bother to look at my retirement fund statements. Hell, we're waiting to get the memo telling us we have to work less hours, and then the one starting the layoffs.
My motto is that if it ain't in your hands, then it ain't your money.
I contribute to the fund, because I have no choice, but I stay out of any paper games until I feel my household is maxed out with tangible assets like a root cellar, strategic cash stash, etc. What good is it to have all the paper "money" when you have nothing in your hands to carry you through when it vanishes?
Nova,
The joke is that as a baby boomer, both my parents had to work in the '60's. Very few stay at home moms. Many worked part-time or full-time. The difference was "structured" activity was running around the neighborhood and playing outdoor games. But the older neighbors kept an eye on us kids and the older siblings were the "parents" and given the power to discipline. Babysitting was a moneymaker, .25cents an hour back then. I never felt fear of my life. Hollywood has created a culture of fear, violence, anger, lack of respect for humanity. Now, we're in an era of distrust and stranger danger....
I think once Johnny Carson joked about spaghetti trees and a whole bunch of people thought that they were real.
Farming is hard, and takes perpetual dedication, which most years, I just don't have. It also take expertise--just why haven't my pecan trees produced anything, even tho they were supposed to 5 years ago? Seems you have to plant different types and they spew pollen at different times, and I forget.
and why is the best tangerine tree pithy this year?
Some years I really get in the mood and things look and taste fabulous. And remember my grandparents grew stuff, so I had a slight example. This is not something you can do successfully from the get go, unless you are the Mozart of gardening.
ova writes:
For the first time in 2009, I'll be paying more for health insurance than for mortgage
Some advice for homeowners:
I you carry P&C insurance and have replacement coverage you can save a wack of coin simply because construction costs have fallen 50-60% b/c of materials prices. You should expect to pay $100-200 less upon renewal but you have to ask!
And yeah, this boomer's mom always worked, but the grandparents were functional until I got into my early teens and the neighbors did know us and each other, and we ran all over the place. I was told repeatedly to never take candy from a stranger, but didn't quite understand why, until much later.
ova, very interesting. I'm planning a PCT '09 thru hike, and had always wondered about rbinging along a handgun for bear protection, even though i know it's illegal and most pct'ers have said it's unnecessary
Barley--in Florida? Naaahhhh.
You have to get down on your knees and beg or get the State coverage.
Re: health insurance premiums
HMO stocks are dirt cheap now. HUM, UNH, others with P/Es of six. Supposedly they are doing well in raising rates and having them stick. I've been nibbling, despite my intense hate for those rat bastards.
U-6 is not only going up, it is accelerating...the YoY change is just over a 50% rate of increase (U-6 unadjusted, from 11/2007 8.1% to 11/2008 12.2%). Makes an ugly graph.
All this talk about insurance reminds me of a joke I heard back when AIG looked like it was going to implode. (Of course it still may; yours and my tax dollars are going to prop it up for a while longer)
First guy - "hey, do you know that your life insurer is AIG and they invested heavily in MBS? Without a bailout, they're toast"
Second guy - " Guess I'd better start jogging!"
Absolutely right Liz!
We've been practicing for a few years now, and still lose an entire crop once in a while. This year our tomatoes got the blight, so no sauce for canning. Last year the corn didn't ripen in time.
Sure is a learning experience about diversifying, and when to stop tring a particular variety in favor of a hardier one.
We document everything, weigh every harvest, keep expense receipts, so we can repeat what works, learn from our mistakes, and hopefully share some of the easier stuff to learn.
As much as I liked having a milk cow, we learned that it's more cost effective to use our grass to raise beef, and pay a local dairy for milk.
We also learned how important it is not to try and grow everything ourselves. It was a bad year for some fruit trees, but some folks had too much. We ended up getting hundreds of pounds of apples & grapes picked and delivered to our back porch by a neighbor. Our cost? hanging out with a few beers and chatting over the back fence, plus a dozen eggs every couple weeks.
But yeah, people just can't jump into growing their own food, at least not in a way to count on it, without practice. Start small, tomatoes in a bucket, garlic, potatoes, the easy stuff. What works, and what you like to eat...plant more next year.
I'm always amazed and amused that one of my best profit-making ventures has been selling eggs to co-workers. My hens, the coop, feed, all paid for. Plus we have a great protein source and the hens keep the cows & pony healthier by eating parasites in the grass.
My girlfriend in West Va, who pretends to garden, but always has everything eaten by deer and such, started to do the chicken thing and at first they had lots of eggs, but now very few and she hasn't the faintest idea why.
My broccoli and cabbages are doing well. Gonna buy some baby tomato plants.
Joanna, wonderful comments, so visceral and reminiscent of my time growing up, thanks!
please don't run from community leadership, it sucks in many ways, but is so important and has wonderful and surprising rewards.
i posted a link about coop troubles last night, don't know the truth, but seems to be aggressive over-regulators.
hopefully not a trend.
Swat Team conducts food raid in rural Ohio
there is a new thread and you should download CR companion if you haven't, very handy.
Rock on Garth!
Almost forgot - if anyone is interested, here's our farm blog. Lots of critter pics this time of year, since it's slow, but poke around for garden/building stuff, or check out the eat local links on the side to find good food in your area...
Seven Trees blog
OT: Securitization Article
Aline van Duyn had an excellent summary article in yesterday's Financial Times regarding the problems of the markets for securitized loans. A) "These markets face a huge problem." B) It sounds unsolvable because there is no solution except one posed by a slow, painful unwinding process that will involve huge losses on the part of the holders of this stuff as the securitized "assets" are gradually sold off at heavy discounts over the next umpteen years.
El Problemo: Potential private buyers are non-existent. Only buyer in sight: you guessed it, gummint. Timothy Ryan, Securities Industry Association: "Eventually, the government will have to buy. We have not had much luck with the current administration (read Hank Paulson) but [we] are all over the next administration [to get them to buy securities]."
Well, well, well . . . Thank you, FT for that update.
CR,
Tanta has passed but is not gone in Spirit or Inspiration.
She was and remains uniquely special.
How about editing her posts into books entitled "Tanta's Book Of Wisdom for...(fill in the target audience)" like H. Jackson Brown's immensely popular series of inspirational paperbacks and calenders.
Most the work has been done for you especially if you include many of the most worthwhile and insightful comments like many of those here today.
What she had to say should be shared beyond this blogshpere community, imho.
Thank you very much, CR. It made me grim from ear to ear to imagine what Tanta would do of this "mash note" in Portuguese...
i expect a fist bump and big hug if we see each other in mpig garb!
more sat rock blogging in these coming Demon Days, this is a weird blend of live and anime', very positive and inspirational from the halfway point to the end. to me at least.
YouTube - Gorillaz - Demon Days (x)
dead cat a-risin'
from Aug 2007? talk about prescient. Thanks to people like CR & Tanta for clueing us in ahead of time.
That song is echoing in my head. Not the dead cat version but still . .
This just in from Vegas:
Las Vegas airport officials say passenger traffic at the city's major airport declined 12.8 percent in October compared to the same month one year ago, the 12th straight monthly decline.
Hey, there's more than one way to skin a (dead) cat...
I see a Black Swan a risin'
I see trouble on the way
I see my low-ball puts a strikin'
I see more bailout giveaways
Don't go long tonight
Or you'll catch a fallin' knife
There's a Black Swan on the rise
cd
I hear the hedge funds are explodin'
I think the end is comin' soon
I see the red ink overflowin'
Unemployment, hunger, rage & ruin
Don't go long tonight
Or you'll catch a fallin' knife
There's a Black Swan on the rise (oh yeah)
Hope you got your act together
Hope you got a place to fly
The bond markets point to nasty weather
Wall Street jumpers soon will fill the sky
Don't go long tonight
Or you'll catch a fallin' knife
There's a Black Swan on the rise
Vou sentir a falta de Tanta!
lawyerliz(Unrated) writes:
My girlfriend in West Va, who pretends to garden, but always has everything eaten by deer and such, started to do the chicken thing and at first they had lots of eggs, but now very few and she hasn't the faintest idea why.
lawyerliz | 12.06.08 - 12:28 pm | #
If she is in W Va - that's plenty rural to find answers, have her call her extension agent [usually associated w/ a state uni] - they should know & answer for free.
As far as deer - you need a VERY high fence all around the garden to keep the deer out with something like barbed wire at the top. Talking six feet high minimum - maybe even eight feet.
Of course if she has bears - they'll blow through that like it was gauze.
If she is really cleaver - you house the chicken coup in the garden (chickens fenced inside) - they will debug a garden in a couple days. They LOVE potato bugs.
from a lurker...
:o/
Keep Me in Your Heart: Warren Zevon (cover by LiliAna)
YouTube - Keep Me in Your Heart: Warren Zevon cover (LiliAna Rose)
When that song came out, car radios, well, sucked. I always thought the lyrics were "there's a bad mood on the Right." I still think that.
Thank you CR-
I just want to say that I came here 2 years ago on a link from E Supkis. Looking for a place of sanity and thoughtfulness in what was clearly an insane economy/market. I found what I was looking for along with some great songs, funny stories... and the occasional good market advice.
It took me months to post, because I felt like I had to read all the old comments before I could intrude on what was a pretty tight community.
I've learned a lot, bored my friends, scared my parents (when my 90 year old grand-dad commented on the coming darkness over Xmas dinner in '06), and I hope occasionally contributed to this blog. To all the folks who comment here- thanks and enjoy the holidays! I'll get to see my own Tanta (an aunt who goes by the same :^) this winter.
I have such great memories of Tanta-Doris writing, and she has left so much for us that I still guide people to her UberNerd posts.
I never thought I would have friends ask about mortgage underwriting-servicing-foreclosure.
Oh, and I'm pimpin' Schnaps' rework of Shakira even if others already have:
YouTube - Ay Amor, me duele tanta!
1929er-
Heh, headed to Vegas in Jan. Still haven't paid for my room.
I'm guessing it will be cheaper the day I arrive than it is right now... that's deflationary expectation and I'm not the only one.
Schnaps, that was FABULOUS! To the exact point!
CR, thanks for the rock blogging, what a pleasant surprise...although I had thought all my tears had been shed already.
I can't thank you enough for your hard work, wit, and wisdom and thank you for giving Tanta a space to share hers too.
It's the holidays, kiddies, so hit the tip jar, the charities, or MP's ebay store and remember 'tis better to give than receive!
Someone please tell me when the moments of melancholy will be farther apart.
Somehow, I feel Tanta has officially approved this entry.
It has been a difficult week but I am thankful that CR was here to soften the blow. Let's keep skewering the rubes. It's only right.
YouTube - Graham Colton - Best Days
It's crazy, simply crazy!
Alice Cooper - Is It My Body 1971
YouTube - Alice Cooper - Is It My Body 1971
Bob Dylan's most underrated songwriter...
Here's a slower tempo version live in Detroit...
YouTube - Alice Cooper live in Detroit 1971 - Is It My Body
Hey now,
Tanta också medel "Aunt" i Svensk och Norske.
Being without Tanta takes a lot of getting used to...
YouTube -
optimader: Of course the Zevon song that comes to MY mind is "My shit's fucked up." YouTube - Which could refer either to Tanta's or the economy's health. The story is that his doctor was worried that his calm demeanor meant that Zevon wasn't taking his diagnosis seriously enough. Apparantly, giving doc his last two albums showed that a diagnosis of incurable cancer simply wasn't going to make him much more depressed than he already was.
Hi Matthew.dk .... my kids pronounced it "Tanta" although it is indeed spelled "Tante" in Danish - Norma pronounced it almost in reverse "Tenta" if my memory serves. I can't ask her because she died after a recurrance of cancer in 2000.
Phonetically to her family and friends is it "Tahn-tuh".
We sent some time on the subject this weekend at her memorials so I thought I'd share.