This is going to absolutely kill the Aloha state economy. Tourism has got to be the number two industry for generating dollars, right behind weed and filming Lost episodes.
Hotel BUST? You man inflatable maids as an inticment to stay?
Normally this is where I'd sa "Encore" but seeing as Steve Wynn opened his new luxo-hotel in Vegas named "Encore" this weekend that would be in poor taste even for LV.
@"What in the world are we going to do with all those hotels?"
I'd say, if we nationalize a couple of the soon-to-be-BK hotel chains, we could convert the buildings over to 6-to-a-room hostels to provide bare-bones accommodations for the soon-to-be homeless/unemployed (and/or the infrastructure rebuilding WPA-2 teams)...
I still have until the 12th to cancel my Vegas reservations for new years, I've been constantly checking the rates, off peak rates have been dropping but rates around the first of Jan haven't budged much...
The 50h State problem is even worse than the excellent points raised by Peter Lynch Mob. Lots of the island properties are California equity locust nests. I see private hoe rentals half off 2006 prices and going begging. Worse is so many in 2006 who paid the vig turned and bought based on projected cah flow. Bad mistake. Now they'll lose their North Shore crib AND Pasadena home base.
General Growth about to BK..."Two board members of General Growth Properties Inc. marched into CEO John Bucksbaum's office to deliver a blunt message: It was time for him to resign. An internal investigation showed that Mr. Bucksbaum's family trust had violated company policy by making private loans to two company officers and failing to inform the board. The departure of Mr. Bucksbaum -- whose father and uncle founded the giant mall owner 54 years ago -- would mark an end to the family's management control of the company.
"I accept the decision," Mr. Bucksbaum said, according to people briefed on the Oct. 24 meeting. "I'll do what's in the best interest of the company and its shareholders."
Yet the harm to the legacy and the fortune of the Bucksbaum family -- one of the richest and oldest real-estate dynasties in America -- had already been done. Aside from the loans, made to prevent a massive stock selloff by executives, Mr. Bucksbaum and his deputies in recent years loaded the company with debts totaling more than $27 billion. General Growth's stock has plunged more than 97% in the past year, dragging down the Bucksbaum family fortunes with it. The Bucksbaums' 25% ownership stake, worth $3.2 billion just six months ago, is now worth $116 million."
Tha Peter Lynch Mob writes:
This is going to absolutely kill the Aloha state economy. Tourism has got to be the number two industry for generating dollars, right behind weed and filming Lost episodes.
Correcto the hawaiian economy shut down after 9/11... Waikiki was a ghost town, they were also hit hard as a result of the Japanese bust...This time around should be worse
In my short life, Maui has changed dramatically... track houses everywhere in place of old sugar cane fields... I hope that when they burn some of the fields they let it spill over and level some units
the hawaiian economy shut down after 9/11... Waikiki was a ghost town, they were also hit hard as a result of the Japanese bust...This time around should be worse - toyotaJoe
Wait until the BRAC Obama process kicks in. California, Far West, Pacific and Gulf interests are on the short block. IMO the Pacific and Gulf are the next MidEast but that's not their consideration.
Waikiki was a ghost town, they were also hit hard as a result of the Japanese bust...This time around should be worse
Actually i have a house on maui (Kula) and look foreword to a empty island.
Even the locals will be clueless when they can't fill up the 4X4 to get a case of bud.
And thing of those empty waves----
I would love to know what Ben Bernanke/Hank Paulson are thinking right now. They were so sure if the TARP funds and alphabet lending programs put out enough cash everything would be ok (Keynesian thought). But the banks are so messed up they are just hoarding the cash at putting it into short term treasuries. This is what happens with academics: They have this little paper (think Bernanke's helicopter speech) that shows that when X haapens you do Y and you get resolution Z. In the real world things are a bit different. It reminds me of the exchange between Thorton Mellon and his professor in the film "Back to School": YouTube - Rodney Dangerfield's First Economics Class
China's aviation regulator is encouraging airlines to cancel or postpone plane deliveries due in 2009 as a slowing economy curbs demand for air travel.
The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) also encouraged carriers to retire old aircraft and will not approve new airlines before 2010, CAAC said in a statement.
The move may hurt Boeing and its European rival Airbus which are turning to emerging markets, including China, for growth as demand weakens in their home markets. Business finance news - currency market news - online UK currency markets - financial news - Interactive Investor
Hell maybe Uncle Sam can get a plane manufacturer in the portfolio. Crisis creates opportunities.
I think Tom "world is flat" Friedman is an asshat, for many reasons.
Most don't know that as he blathered on about the world economy he did so from his 11,000 sq ft home and that unlike most, he didn't earn his fortune, he married into his money. His wife's family was worth billions.
I say was because most of it was tied up in GGP stock which is down 99% or so this year.
In the past year, the couplewho live in an 11,400-square-foot mansion in Bethesda, Marylandhave watched helplessly as General Growth stock has fallen 99 percent, from a high of $51 to a recent 35 cents a share. The assorted Bucksbaum family trusts, once worth a combined $3.6 billion, are now worth less than $25 million.
Friedman's flat world allowed all competitors to have equal opportunity. Should've married some dollar store heiress.
Not a problem! The new W hotel and condo's in Hollywood just topped out! There were movie stars there! There is a lot of pent up demand for hotel rooms and especially condos in Hollywood. This is gonna be great!
I'll be honeymooning on Maui in March 09. Originally booked all of our lodging back in July. Last week, my travel agent managed to get the Sheraton to knock about 30% off of our original booking, which had already included some pretty good Starwood discounts and upgrades. I don't have to pay in full until a few weeks before we go. Something tells me I might be able to milk another discount before then. Definitely relishing the prospect of the island not being a rats nest of haolies and Japanese tourists when we go.
" Also perfect for senior residences and the infirmed "
Hmmm, in the early 90's what is now The Standard hotel on the Sunset Strip, very swanky, was a half empty retirement home. I think it was originally built as a hotel in the 50's or 60's. The 70's and 80's produced the retirement home phase. Wonder if it'll revert back to a retirement home as this boom turns to bust...
A big part of this lodging boom was casinos in NV and NJ. Also, casinos were approved in a number of new states during this boom. I would be interested in knowing how big the boom was in states where casinos were not a factor.
You going to Kaanapali? It's great. I recommend getting Maui Revealed book and the Road to Hana CD. Also book the Old Lahaina Luaua (floor seats up front are the best imho) for the best Luaua.
"Wisdom Seeker - Also perfect for senior residences and the infirmed - part of the NEW DEAL on Healthcare, dont ya know.
Barley | 12.09.08 - 7:26 pm | # "
Ohh, I like what you are saying. Loaded up on SRZ yesterday since it looks like they have successfully restructured their financing.
@Barley - I bow to your superior creativity. Hotels would be great as jumbo, low-cost nursing homes.
In my city, the most recent hotel that was constructed was a building they converted. It had been a nursing home, now its a Marriot.
I'll second that. There was a senior living facility on the boardwalk in Long Beach. It is currently under renovation to re-open in sometime in 2009 as a combo spa, residences and hotel. It may actually have a chance since it would be the only hotel along the ocean front there...
If sbarkum is around I'm sure he can come up with the name so you can visit their website
"You going to Kaanapali? It's great. I recommend getting Maui Revealed book and the Road to Hana CD. Also book the Old Lahaina Luaua (floor seats up front are the best imho) for the best Luaua."
Thanks for the tips. Yep. Kaanapali for the bulk of the trip. I've visited there before, but always stayed in condo-hell (aka Kihei). Also staying two nights at the end of the trip in Hana, so the CD should be of great use.
Essentially shorting yourself and hope your house doesn't run out of value before you die.
"Like many retirees, Marlene Laffoon, 73, watches in dismay as both her home's value and her investments slide southward. And yet everyday costs for this former bookkeeper and Snohomish County resident aren't falling correspondingly.
So Laffoon's spirits rose last month on an unexpected windfall of good news: Loan amounts on reverse mortgages have been increased, and the fees decreased. A reverse mortgage allows homeowners 62 or older to borrow up to $417,000 of their home's equity to use any way they wish; the old limit was $352,790. They don't have to repay it as long as they stay in the home. Laffoon promptly asked her reverse-mortgage officer, Frontier Bank's Jerry Dawson, how much cash she could get if she took out a new reverse mortgage to replace the one she got several years ago. "I really don't want to touch anything in my investments now, and yet I can't wait 10 years to have something to draw on," says Laffoon, who used funds from her original reverse mortgage to remodel the bathrooms and re-roof her home of 43 years."
Insane...using a reverse mtg to fix up your place.
Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc., the insurer whose bonuses and perks are under fire from U.S. lawmakers, offered cash awards to another 38 executives in a retention program with payments of as much as $4 million. The incentives range from $92,500 to $4 million for employees earning salaries between $160,000 and $1 million, Chief Executive Officer Edward Liddy said in a letter dated Dec. 5 to Representative Elijah Cummings. The New York-based insurer had previously disclosed that 130 managers would get the awards and that one executive would get $3 million.
" Anonymous writes:
dashingdwl writes:
What in the world are we going to do with all those hotels?
Lowering of room rates would help some. Red Roofs at $70? The hooker was cheaper
Anonymous | 12.09.08 - 7:59 pm | # "
I like the idea of operating some of them as hostels; let communities or nonprofits take them over, if they want, in return for a tax writeoff.
We have a hostel here in town, and it's well-supported and popular. An expanded nationwide hostel network might be just the thing for the for the new low-income, low-overhead American family on vacation.
JJL writes:
I would love to know what Ben Bernanke/Hank Paulson are thinking right now. They were so sure if the TARP funds and alphabet lending programs put out enough cash everything would be ok (Keynesian thought). But the banks are so messed up they are just hoarding the cash at putting it into short term treasuries.
You're wrong. They knew Exactly what was going to happen. This was their intent. To bail out their friends.
If you think they truly expected this to result in more lending, they have some swampland to sell you. Their statements were meant for public consumption. They knew that this money was going to be hoarded, and that was their intention all along.
Comrade Scared Shitless;
You are probably correct, but then those cats are not true Keyenesian Clowns if their intent was to not spur spending/lending. Krugman would be very displeased!
According to the Wall Street Journal, the Bucksbaum's of GGP are "one of the oldest and richest real estate dynasties in America,...starting in 1954 with a small shopping center in Cedar Rapids, Iowa..."
Subcommander Doom | 12.09.08 - 7:57 pm | # The list was expanded so AIG can retain people with âkey client relationshipsâ and who have a high âdegree of flight risk,â Liddy wrote. He cited their âdeep experience, extremely valuable business relationships, and unique ties to the many local communities where they live and work.
Is this a polite way of saying they know where the bodies are buried?
You can't pass go and collect $200. You can't collect from me because I landed on Boardwalk either....your hotel is in FORECLOSURE....previously rich S.O.B.
OT, but must respond to back thread discussion of Illinois Governor case:
I worked briefly for a politically unpopular judge who was accused of incompetence and bias against the State. His problems started after a defendant accused of battery posted bail, went out and immediately killed his girlfriend and himself. The judge had denied the State's request for a higher amount, since the defendant had no prior record, had already been in jail beyond normal habeas corpus standards, and the State still had no witness willing to come forward.
This was right after the OJ acquittal, and Mayor Giuliani and Governor Pataki saw an opportunity to send a message to the judiciary. The Brooklyn prosecutor, who had screwed up the case, and the New York Post joined the effort. They could not fault the judge for his decision, so they combed through 50,000 pages of transcripts covering every day the judge had sat. Among the very few violations of protocol they hit the judge with was a case in which a defendant had been held overnight on Christmas Eve for jumping the subway turnstile (failure to pay the $1.50 fare).
But what sealed his fate were several statements made on the record of an apparently racist and sexist nature. The judge had no recollection of those statements. After he managed to obtained copies of the record himself, he found that all of the statements had been absurdly taken out of context, and in fact several were clear hyperbole or sarcasm (his real crime) meaning the exact opposite of what his accusers claimed.
Too late, he had been branded a "biased" judge by the New York Post (Rupert Murdoch). So I never believe anything until I at least hear what the defense is.
How did the investments in hotel beds get so hight? It was all those time shares!! So many middle class people thought they were pre-paying their vacation. They didn't realize they were getting into the hotel business. Conrad Hilton top-ticked this.
Cheap whores aren't cheap either! They are both cheap in the present and likely very expensive later. Both provide cheap thrills, something dopes are trained to seek.
Damn Haloscan. This time with the correct escape sequences...
Interestingly, we decided at the last minute to go to Vegas this weekend and I was shocked at how cheap rooms there have become. <$100 on the Strip (Luxor) on Friday and Saturday nights. Wasn't long ago that it would be closer to $200 / night. And the higher end places weren't much more (Bellagio <$200 / night for the weekend)
Gotta love the HELOC financed vacations going away (and the fact that this is about the slowest time of year there)
Suspect an adjustment is in order. Hotels whose rooms go from $400/night and up use immigrant on-call labor at $10/hr. The 'return on capital' end is way out of whack.
Terre Haute, IN- 2 brand new luxury hotels, across the street from each other, downtown. Lots of demand by high end consumers to stay in downtown Terre Haute?
rich - when Kung Fu Panda said it was insane to use your reverse mortgage money to fix up your place, I think he meant 'their' place, meaning the new 'owner' - (my interpretation, anyway)
I'm still waiting for the HELOC inflated college tuitions to start crying.
Will it take no jobs, degree or not, for that to happen? It does not appear that the boomers will be giving up the leadership roles anytime soon. Why indenture yourself to be the fry guy?
Going to vegas in a week and then again in March for March Madness. Where else can u stay in Bellagio for $149 a night at such luxury. Vegas might be hurting, but its good for me and my wallet. I also cant wait to see the new Volcano at Mirage, I am staying there next week. Now if I can only get a good run at the craps table. LOL. Vegas will be fine, its hurting but the cheap rooms are attracting alot of new people who "couldnt" afford it before. Vegas is becoming affordable again thanks to this economic crisis.
--
Exposing the characteristics of born-and-bred American dopes can be a very irritating for the dopes (they are very eager to reveal themselves at the first available opportunity). I feel pity but no sympathy.
Exposing the characteristics of born-and-bred American dopes can be avery irritating for the dopes (they are very eager to reveal themselvesat the first available opportunity). I feel pity but no sympathy.
Exposing the characteristics of born-and-bred indian dopes can be avery irritating for the dopes (they are very eager to reveal themselvesat the first available opportunity). I feel pity but no sympathy.
You can't expect everybody to understand what is really happening. Not everybody is versed in econ or finance. Yes they will suffer, but through no fault of their own.
You can't expect everybody to understand what is really happening. Not everybody is versed in econ or finance. Yes they will suffer, but through no fault of their own.
You expect too much ... mmckinl | 12.09.08 - 9:09 pm | #
I don't expect him to understand. He's obviously psychosocially damaged.
Pavel Chichikov writes:
"I'll second that. There was a senior living facility on the boardwalk in Long Beach. "
Watch out for category 5 hurricanes. I'm not kidding.
Pavel Chichikov | 12.09.08 - 8:28 pm | #
Pavel. No kidding. This place - Long Island - acts as if we're immune to those things. My lender didn't require it but I've got flood insurance anyway seeing as how I can see the bay from my back deck about 100 yds away.
If one of those things heads this way family and I will be long gone. I had family in New Orleans who saw their house get flooded and then coated in oil(St Bernard Parish). They didn't need flood but thankfully had it. Many of their friends did not. When they visisted a few years ago they said "you do have flood insurance right?" Next day the $300 or so check was in the mail...
Guilty as charged. I like to toy with dopes when they are jumping up and down wanting my attention. Give dopes what they ask for to quiet them down for the moment. They never grew up (a part and parcel of the breeding dopes process).
Things will get bad so rapidly that Gangistan wouldnt be able to control Dopeland. Gangistan WILL suffer the consequences of breeding dopes and talking advantage. All "good" things must come to an end. The end for Gangistan would be horrible event for America and the world.
Narcissistic personality disorder: A pervasive pattern of grandiosity (in fantasy or behavior), need for admiration, and lack of empathy, beginning by early adulthood and present in a variety of contexts, as indicated by five (or more) of the following:
1. has a grandiose sense of self-importance 2. is preoccupied with fantasies of unlimited success, power, brilliance, beauty, or ideal love 3. believes that he or she is "special" and unique 4. requires excessive admiration 5. has a sense of entitlement 6. is interpersonally exploitative 7. lacks empathy 8. is often envious of others or believes others are envious of him or her 9. shows arrogant, haughty behaviors or attitudes
I also cant wait to see the new Volcano at Mirage, I am staying there next week. Now if I can only get a good run at the craps table. LOL. Vegas will be fine, its hurting but the cheap rooms are attracting alot of new people who "couldnt" afford it before. Vegas is becoming affordable again thanks to this economic crisis.
jay,
you seem to be the kind of solid, productive citizen America is looking for to lead us out of this economic nightmare. Good luck in vegas and be sure to spend anything you win.
--
Every born-and-bred American dopes is a shrink! Just think about 200M+ shrinks during a nasty depression. They will kill each other by shrink-talk, aka psychoanalysis!
jay [Vegas will be fine, its hurting but the cheap rooms are attracting alot of new people who "couldnt" afford it before]
LOL! I am sure LV operators relish the thought of attracting those that can barely afford a room. The place doesn't come close to penciling in on rooms & meals. They are the loss leaders. They need playas and cheap guests don't count.
[But I bought SRS today at $78 and I don't live within a 150-mile radius of Toledo. Should I sell?
Igor]
It'll hit $130 in a week. I don't think it'll see $59 for a long long time.
But there is also the issue of timing. For whatever reason (maybe Big 3 bailout) a lot of liquidity is being pumped into stocks right now. Liquidity loves to trounce SRS.
Every born-and-bred American dopes is a shrink! Just think about 200M+ shrinks during a nasty depression. They will kill each other by shrink-talk, aka psychoanalysis!
God save America from economists and shrinks.
Jas Jas Jain | Homepage | 12.09.08 - 9:29 pm | #
So that means you don't know anyone who fits the description?
Anonymous(Good) writes:
Please, if you value your Hoopajoops..
Good sir, if I did something so foolish as actually valuing my hoopajoops, the entire business model on which my company and a greater part of this financial system is based would completely and totally collapse!
Hoopajoops must never be valued, accounted, scrutinized, examined, or subjected to any kind of market forces other than carefully orchestrated sales between well meaning market making entities at very specific times for the purpose of setting a valid price point which can be used for projecting value into an infinite timeline culminating in the realization of an infinite asset valuation whose mere calculation results in an error in all accounting instruments and thus necessitates new quantum accounting measures which are by their very definition unfalsifiable and thus un-subjegable to modern science, rationality, or human comprehension!!!!
No Cal SC writes:
I'm going to Hawaii in September 2010. Hope there are still some good deals to be had then.
I would suggest stealing a 30' Cal or Erickson, and just follow the few remaining jet trails west--
You can see the Big Island from a long distance away, as the peaks are almost 14000--
Forget about coming back, the tacking is a bitch.
Would that valuation not constitute an actual observation, thus violating Schroedinger's conditions for superposition, hence no longer hoopajoops to be both long and short themselves simultaneously? The horror!
energyecon, I'm afraid that I am forbidden from answering that question.
By the by, energyecon, are you interested in joining the CR dream team? A bunch of us have gotten together to produce a collaborative online resource, and I think nova named you as someone who we should ask aboard.
Jas, aren't you late for a cocktail party or social engagement? You must be all the rage at parties, fighting off the groupies... err... paying the hookers with rupies.
--
Enough dope-watch/research for a day. Dopes were extremely co-operative in revealing themselves and their common behavior that is the result of systematic breeding, e.g., shrinking.
Jas have you ever considered just adding "etc. etc. etc." instead of typing the same stuff out? We'd still get the point. For instance:
"Enough dope-watch/research for a day. Dopes were extremely co-operative in revealing themselves and their common behavior that is the result of systematic breeding, e.g., shrinking."
could be easily summarized to
"Enough dope-watch/research for a day. Dopes were extremely co-operative in revealing themselves and their common behavior etc. etc. etc,"
"Wisdom Seeker writes:
Okay, so Barley loses points for creativity"
I dont mind loosing on yesterdays news 'cause we have a NEW DEAL.
Hotels will be hard pressed to make ends meet. And dont forget the new hotel concept is to attach condos for that exclusive thingy (Hows that working? Not!)
Car rental the same thing - Advantge went bust today.
"....If you think they truly expected this to result in more lending, they have some swampland to sell you. Their statements were meant for public consumption. They knew that this money was going to be hoarded, and that was their intention all along.
Comrade Scared Shitless | 12.09.08 - 8:03 pm |
tg is a born & bred ahole writes:
Way OT and somewhat tin hatish but something I have been wondering about with the greek riots
Not off topic at all. The Olympics broke that nation. Taxes beyond belief to cover the costs. A class in society that acts as over-lords. Now the people have had enough. A portend to what may happen in the US or UK or both - who knows.
SRS at $80 or $60 is the same thing to me. I started buying at $120. I enjoy seeing it go to $80 because I buy all the way down. Will it go to $40? We can only hope.
I'll cheer the REIT's to great new heights in the coming months even though it will mean me losing a lot of paper money. And then once they all crash and burn, I'll sell my SRS for 100% returns. I hope it takes six months. Volatility builds character. If this was easy, the nutbags at Goldman Sachs would be able to do it. I'd prefer it not be easy.
And then maybe I'll write note about why we should legalize hemp.
In general people can know what the odds are in a casino. In general the game is fixed and everyone can know that it is fixed and the odds. In the case of high finance, stock investments and investments in MBSs and CDSs, not so much.
Concerning the old lady with the reverse mortgage: in law there is something called a "life estate." It's an exclusive right to use property until your death after which it reverts to the beneficial owner or to some other party. In truth, the most any of us EVER has is a life estate if we stay in a place since we can't take it with us. It makes plenty of sense to cash out and fix up the place to enjoy while you live in it. And the drinks and guests provide the spice. Everything that happens afterward is of no concern to you whatsoever.
groupies... err... paying the hookers with rupies.
bearly a poet!
Jas has been clear headed and ahead of the curve so far; however he quickly gets shackled by the law of diminishing returns as we prod ourselves by poking him....
new thread
mmckinl | 12.09.08 - 9:56 pm |
LOL! I always wanted to do that before the pig came to being (thanks Ken) just never had the balls.
Anecdotal evidence: Maison de Ville (small boutique) hotel in the French Quarter abruptly closed and is for sale, as of last week. New Orleans recovery has sparked a wave of new restaurant openings around the city; unfortunately, the supply is through the roof and this isn't Manhattan. I am fearful of what the effects will be on the still struggling economy down here.
Vegas needs Players, conventioners, tourists, Joe Blow, the mindless. They need it all, not just one type of person. sure the gamblers are great and help alot, but u need the whole spectrum of folk to come out. Vegas is cheap and the rooms are great at these prices. Bellagio is so cheap now at under $130 a night, I use to only dream of staying there now I can. I was staying at the Luxor and its great,but for $30 more I want to stay at a 5 star place and indulge once in my life. LOL. Vegas and other places are on sale, have fun!
In October I called a AZ resort that wanted $400/night. I asked for a deal. Guy said that $400 was the deal. I said that was the price on their website. Silence.
He said "2 levels of rooms are already sold out." I asked how many levels there were. He said 6. I told him that meant that 66% were available. Silence.
I stopped trying to give him money then & hung up.
Lodging was due for a retrenching anyway with the addition of new properties outstripping the growth in demand in recent years, especially considering the explosion in competition from vacation rental condominiums in many of the most important markets.
What can you do with a failed hotel property? It seems like in some cases you might be able to convert to condos. But in this market, that probably isn't an option.
I can certainly comment on this one - 500k "hilton points" earned each of the past 2 years as a zone manager for a car company in cities like Las Cruces NM, Albuquerque nm, Tucson AZ, and all over SoCal. Also had 50 round trips a year on Southwest and $40 per day in meal allowances...
Lost my job a couple of months ago and wasn't replaced -
Cost to the economy? I don't know, maybe $3-4k a month average, not including my "phat" salary...
Plus, unemployed people still get those gubmint checks... I think I contribute about $80 a month from those to tax revenue - it's gonna take a while for me to pay my "share" of that $700B...
A few million here and there and then you start talking real money...
ow i know its the end of the world
cause im nth
done the old fashioned way
using Nemos refresh button monkey!
wait, but I own a hotel . . .
We are all Motel 6 now.
What in the world are we going to do with all those hotels?
This is going to absolutely kill the Aloha state economy. Tourism has got to be the number two industry for generating dollars, right behind weed and filming Lost episodes.
Hotel BUST? You man inflatable maids as an inticment to stay?
Normally this is where I'd sa "Encore" but seeing as Steve Wynn opened his new luxo-hotel in Vegas named "Encore" this weekend that would be in poor taste even for LV.
We can tack on another 0.25% GDP drop as a result of lodging resetting to the historical recessionary lows, then...
But it will crank up the meth production in the "Aloha" state.
dashingdwl writes:
What in the world are we going to do with all those hotels?
turn them in for 50 cents on the dollar and pay the mortgage when we land on boardwalk
@"What in the world are we going to do with all those hotels?"
I'd say, if we nationalize a couple of the soon-to-be-BK hotel chains, we could convert the buildings over to 6-to-a-room hostels to provide bare-bones accommodations for the soon-to-be homeless/unemployed (and/or the infrastructure rebuilding WPA-2 teams)...
I still have until the 12th to cancel my Vegas reservations for new years, I've been constantly checking the rates, off peak rates have been dropping but rates around the first of Jan haven't budged much...
Let's see. SRS mostly shorts Office, Hotel and Retail REITs. A few weeks ago it was at $300. It was on sale today for $80.
The 50h State problem is even worse than the excellent points raised by Peter Lynch Mob. Lots of the island properties are California equity locust nests. I see private hoe rentals half off 2006 prices and going begging. Worse is so many in 2006 who paid the vig turned and bought based on projected cah flow. Bad mistake. Now they'll lose their North Shore crib AND Pasadena home base.
Dark Days for Mall Dynasty
General Growth about to BK..."Two board members of General Growth Properties Inc. marched into CEO John Bucksbaum's office to deliver a blunt message: It was time for him to resign. An internal investigation showed that Mr. Bucksbaum's family trust had violated company policy by making private loans to two company officers and failing to inform the board. The departure of Mr. Bucksbaum -- whose father and uncle founded the giant mall owner 54 years ago -- would mark an end to the family's management control of the company.
"I accept the decision," Mr. Bucksbaum said, according to people briefed on the Oct. 24 meeting. "I'll do what's in the best interest of the company and its shareholders."
Yet the harm to the legacy and the fortune of the Bucksbaum family -- one of the richest and oldest real-estate dynasties in America -- had already been done. Aside from the loans, made to prevent a massive stock selloff by executives, Mr. Bucksbaum and his deputies in recent years loaded the company with debts totaling more than $27 billion. General Growth's stock has plunged more than 97% in the past year, dragging down the Bucksbaum family fortunes with it. The Bucksbaums' 25% ownership stake, worth $3.2 billion just six months ago, is now worth $116 million."
Leverage works its magic again...
Wisdom Seeker - Also perfect for senior residences and the infirmed - part of the NEW DEAL on Healthcare, dont ya know.
Tha Peter Lynch Mob writes:
This is going to absolutely kill the Aloha state economy. Tourism has got to be the number two industry for generating dollars, right behind weed and filming Lost episodes.
Correcto the hawaiian economy shut down after 9/11... Waikiki was a ghost town, they were also hit hard as a result of the Japanese bust...This time around should be worse
"I see private hoe rentals half off 2006 prices and going begging."
Someone should pass that on to Elliot Spitzer...
Rob Dawg writes:
In my short life, Maui has changed dramatically... track houses everywhere in place of old sugar cane fields... I hope that when they burn some of the fields they let it spill over and level some units
the hawaiian economy shut down after 9/11... Waikiki was a ghost town, they were also hit hard as a result of the Japanese bust...This time around should be worse - toyotaJoe
Wait until the BRAC Obama process kicks in. California, Far West, Pacific and Gulf interests are on the short block. IMO the Pacific and Gulf are the next MidEast but that's not their consideration.
Now is a great time to build or raze a hotel.
@Barley - I bow to your superior creativity.
Hotels would be great as jumbo, low-cost nursing homes.
Waikiki was a ghost town, they were also hit hard as a result of the Japanese bust...This time around should be worse
Actually i have a house on maui (Kula) and look foreword to a empty island.
Even the locals will be clueless when they can't fill up the 4X4 to get a case of bud.
And thing of those empty waves----
Wait until you ring the desk bell and out steps Ben Bernanke.
Paulson will be the bellhop.
Subcommander Doom
Bubble head???
I would love to know what Ben Bernanke/Hank Paulson are thinking right now. They were so sure if the TARP funds and alphabet lending programs put out enough cash everything would be ok (Keynesian thought). But the banks are so messed up they are just hoarding the cash at putting it into short term treasuries. This is what happens with academics: They have this little paper (think Bernanke's helicopter speech) that shows that when X haapens you do Y and you get resolution Z. In the real world things are a bit different. It reminds me of the exchange between Thorton Mellon and his professor in the film "Back to School":
YouTube - Rodney Dangerfield's First Economics Class
China's aviation regulator is encouraging airlines to cancel or postpone plane deliveries due in 2009 as a slowing economy curbs demand for air travel.
The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) also encouraged carriers to retire old aircraft and will not approve new airlines before 2010, CAAC said in a statement.
The move may hurt Boeing and its European rival Airbus which are turning to emerging markets, including China, for growth as demand weakens in their home markets.
Business finance news - currency market news - online UK currency markets - financial news - Interactive Investor
Hell maybe Uncle Sam can get a plane manufacturer in the portfolio. Crisis creates opportunities.
Nova, Dope, everyone, I'm extremely pleased with how the CR Commenting community's Collaborative Project is coming along (CCCP)
I think Tom "world is flat" Friedman is an asshat, for many reasons.
Most don't know that as he blathered on about the world economy he did so from his 11,000 sq ft home and that unlike most, he didn't earn his fortune, he married into his money. His wife's family was worth billions.
I say was because most of it was tied up in GGP stock which is down 99% or so this year.
In the past year, the couplewho live in an 11,400-square-foot mansion in Bethesda, Marylandhave watched helplessly as General Growth stock has fallen 99 percent, from a high of $51 to a recent 35 cents a share. The assorted Bucksbaum family trusts, once worth a combined $3.6 billion, are now worth less than $25 million.
Friedman's flat world allowed all competitors to have equal opportunity. Should've married some dollar store heiress.
Not a problem! The new W hotel and condo's in Hollywood just topped out! There were movie stars there! There is a lot of pent up demand for hotel rooms and especially condos in Hollywood. This is gonna be great!
:-/
@Barley - I bow to your superior creativity.
In my city, the most recent hotel that was constructed was a building they converted. It had been a nursing home, now its a Marriot.
I'll be honeymooning on Maui in March 09. Originally booked all of our lodging back in July. Last week, my travel agent managed to get the Sheraton to knock about 30% off of our original booking, which had already included some pretty good Starwood discounts and upgrades. I don't have to pay in full until a few weeks before we go. Something tells me I might be able to milk another discount before then. Definitely relishing the prospect of the island not being a rats nest of haolies and Japanese tourists when we go.
CA has dire budget deficit issues, but even the projected $28Billion deficit over 18 months may be too low.
California's official budget-deficit figure is way too low - Press-Telegram
" Also perfect for senior residences and the infirmed "
Hmmm, in the early 90's what is now The Standard hotel on the Sunset Strip, very swanky, was a half empty retirement home. I think it was originally built as a hotel in the 50's or 60's. The 70's and 80's produced the retirement home phase. Wonder if it'll revert back to a retirement home as this boom turns to bust...
JJL - classic, just classic.
We're all in fantasy land now.
Ah yes. The CONdotel model. What a CONcept.
Jas is right. We have truly become a nation of dopes.
Cheap money ain't cheap.
The only question that remains is whether or not a printing press can overcome the bursting of the peak stupidity bubble.
A big part of this lodging boom was casinos in NV and NJ. Also, casinos were approved in a number of new states during this boom. I would be interested in knowing how big the boom was in states where casinos were not a factor.
Assume Crash Positions!
You going to Kaanapali? It's great. I recommend getting Maui Revealed book and the Road to Hana CD. Also book the Old Lahaina Luaua (floor seats up front are the best imho) for the best Luaua.
Maui Luaus, Old Lahaina Maui Luau | Official Website
"Wisdom Seeker - Also perfect for senior residences and the infirmed - part of the NEW DEAL on Healthcare, dont ya know.
Barley | 12.09.08 - 7:26 pm | # "
Ohh, I like what you are saying. Loaded up on SRZ yesterday since it looks like they have successfully restructured their financing.
12th Percentile writes:
@Barley - I bow to your superior creativity.
Hotels would be great as jumbo, low-cost nursing homes.
In my city, the most recent hotel that was constructed was a building they converted. It had been a nursing home, now its a Marriot.
I'll second that. There was a senior living facility on the boardwalk in Long Beach. It is currently under renovation to re-open in sometime in 2009 as a combo spa, residences and hotel. It may actually have a chance since it would be the only hotel along the ocean front there...
If sbarkum is around I'm sure he can come up with the name so you can visit their website
"You going to Kaanapali? It's great. I recommend getting Maui Revealed book and the Road to Hana CD. Also book the Old Lahaina Luaua (floor seats up front are the best imho) for the best Luaua."
Thanks for the tips. Yep. Kaanapali for the bulk of the trip. I've visited there before, but always stayed in condo-hell (aka Kihei). Also staying two nights at the end of the trip in Hana, so the CD should be of great use.
Reverse mortgages getting more popular in tough economy
Essentially shorting yourself and hope your house doesn't run out of value before you die.
"Like many retirees, Marlene Laffoon, 73, watches in dismay as both her home's value and her investments slide southward. And yet everyday costs for this former bookkeeper and Snohomish County resident aren't falling correspondingly.
So Laffoon's spirits rose last month on an unexpected windfall of good news: Loan amounts on reverse mortgages have been increased, and the fees decreased. A reverse mortgage allows homeowners 62 or older to borrow up to $417,000 of their home's equity to use any way they wish; the old limit was $352,790. They don't have to repay it as long as they stay in the home. Laffoon promptly asked her reverse-mortgage officer, Frontier Bank's Jerry Dawson, how much cash she could get if she took out a new reverse mortgage to replace the one she got several years ago. "I really don't want to touch anything in my investments now, and yet I can't wait 10 years to have something to draw on," says Laffoon, who used funds from her original reverse mortgage to remodel the bathrooms and re-roof her home of 43 years."
Insane...using a reverse mtg to fix up your place.
These empty hotels will be an appropriate place for ex realtors to practice their new trade.
Okay, so Barley loses points for creativity but I'm thankful to all of you for the education on hotel conversions. RE is not my main game.
Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc., the insurer whose bonuses and perks are under fire from U.S. lawmakers, offered cash awards to another 38 executives in a retention program with payments of as much as $4 million. The incentives range from $92,500 to $4 million for employees earning salaries between $160,000 and $1 million, Chief Executive Officer Edward Liddy said in a letter dated Dec. 5 to Representative Elijah Cummings. The New York-based insurer had previously disclosed that 130 managers would get the awards and that one executive would get $3 million.
And this is without the Hookers and Blow added---
How is the fed going to save all the sham investments?
Houses, stocks, private equity, leveraged loans, CDSs, CDOs, CMBSs, MBSs, ABS.
I won't even mention that household debt is at its highest level ever.
I guess we'll be borrowing from abroad.
dashingdwl writes:
What in the world are we going to do with all those hotels?
Lowering of room rates would help some. Red Roofs at $70? The hooker was cheaper
Kaanapali is cool---
And, as a bonus, it is only a half hour away from Maui.
" Anonymous writes:
dashingdwl writes:
What in the world are we going to do with all those hotels?
Lowering of room rates would help some. Red Roofs at $70? The hooker was cheaper
Anonymous | 12.09.08 - 7:59 pm | # "
I like the idea of operating some of them as hostels; let communities or nonprofits take them over, if they want, in return for a tax writeoff.
We have a hostel here in town, and it's well-supported and popular. An expanded nationwide hostel network might be just the thing for the for the new low-income, low-overhead American family on vacation.
JJL writes:
I would love to know what Ben Bernanke/Hank Paulson are thinking right now. They were so sure if the TARP funds and alphabet lending programs put out enough cash everything would be ok (Keynesian thought). But the banks are so messed up they are just hoarding the cash at putting it into short term treasuries.
You're wrong. They knew Exactly what was going to happen. This was their intent. To bail out their friends.
If you think they truly expected this to result in more lending, they have some swampland to sell you. Their statements were meant for public consumption. They knew that this money was going to be hoarded, and that was their intention all along.
"might be just the thing for the for the new low-income"
I even stutter when I write.
Wait for it to hit $59. Then go whole hog.
Comrade Scared Shitless;
You are probably correct, but then those cats are not true Keyenesian Clowns if their intent was to not spur spending/lending. Krugman would be very displeased!
"Kaanapali is cool---
And, as a bonus, it is only a half hour away from Maui."
chuckle
According to the Wall Street Journal, the Bucksbaum's of GGP are "one of the oldest and richest real estate dynasties in America,...starting in 1954 with a small shopping center in Cedar Rapids, Iowa..."
HOLY SHIT
Wait for it to hit $59. Then go whole hog.
rich
How do you come up with that target number?
Subcommander Doom | 12.09.08 - 7:57 pm | #
The list was expanded so AIG can retain people with âkey client relationshipsâ and who have a high âdegree of flight risk,â Liddy wrote. He cited their âdeep experience, extremely valuable business relationships, and unique ties to the many local communities where they live and work.
Is this a polite way of saying they know where the bodies are buried?
You can't pass go and collect $200. You can't collect from me because I landed on Boardwalk either....your hotel is in FORECLOSURE....previously rich S.O.B.
citizen Kung Fu Panda,
You are so wrong. If you are a senior who owns some hell hole house in Toledo, taking a reverse mortgage is the best thing you can do.
You can fix up your place. You can have booze money for life. You can invite anybody in for parties.
And when you die...it's somebody else's problem.
--
"Size matters when evaluating the economic impact of a bust on the economy."
Fully agree. However, the size does not matter in terms of which are more overbuilt.
Jas
It is the average price of a hotel room within a 150-mile radius or Toledo.
OT, but must respond to back thread discussion of Illinois Governor case:
I worked briefly for a politically unpopular judge who was accused of incompetence and bias against the State. His problems started after a defendant accused of battery posted bail, went out and immediately killed his girlfriend and himself. The judge had denied the State's request for a higher amount, since the defendant had no prior record, had already been in jail beyond normal habeas corpus standards, and the State still had no witness willing to come forward.
This was right after the OJ acquittal, and Mayor Giuliani and Governor Pataki saw an opportunity to send a message to the judiciary. The Brooklyn prosecutor, who had screwed up the case, and the New York Post joined the effort. They could not fault the judge for his decision, so they combed through 50,000 pages of transcripts covering every day the judge had sat. Among the very few violations of protocol they hit the judge with was a case in which a defendant had been held overnight on Christmas Eve for jumping the subway turnstile (failure to pay the $1.50 fare).
But what sealed his fate were several statements made on the record of an apparently racist and sexist nature. The judge had no recollection of those statements. After he managed to obtained copies of the record himself, he found that all of the statements had been absurdly taken out of context, and in fact several were clear hyperbole or sarcasm (his real crime) meaning the exact opposite of what his accusers claimed.
Too late, he had been branded a "biased" judge by the New York Post (Rupert Murdoch). So I never believe anything until I at least hear what the defense is.
How did the investments in hotel beds get so hight? It was all those time shares!! So many middle class people thought they were pre-paying their vacation. They didn't realize they were getting into the hotel business. Conrad Hilton top-ticked this.
It is the average price of a hotel room within a 150-mile radius or Toledo.
rich
But I bought SRS today at $78 and I don't live within a 150-mile radius of Toledo. Should I sell?
--
"""Printing Money" is a propaganda tool to scare people and keep them in the inflation camp. Jas"
"Sure, until the Treasury actually prints money."
Blackhalo,
Only after dopes stop believing in the "Printing Money" theory of inflation!
A counter-propagandist and a contrarian to the core,
Jas
You can fix up your place. You can have booze money for life. You can invite anybody in for parties.
And when you die...it's somebody else's problem.
rich | 12.09.08 - 8:12 pm | #
Even more fun is to take a reverse mortgage out on your neighbor's place.
Gotta say it...
This is def. worth a 500-point rise in the DOW tomorrow!
36K, here we come.
On the other hand, more bad news.
This economy is really showing just overleveraged we are.
Man, this sucka has at least a 45-degree list.
Which way are we going to go? Capsize or right the ship?
Hate to say, but I think we are going to capsize.
The pulse smartpen ad must be annihilated.
--
"Cheap money ain't cheap."
Angry Saver,
Cheap whores aren't cheap either! They are both cheap in the present and likely very expensive later. Both provide cheap thrills, something dopes are trained to seek.
Jas
"So I never believe anything until I at least hear what the defense is."
Quite right. Russian saying: He lies like an eye-witness.
Interestingly, we decided at the last minute to go to Vegas this weekend and I was shocked at how cheap rooms there have become.
Cheap whores aren't cheap either!
Jas
Jas Jain | Homepage | 12.09.08 - 8:22 pm | #
High-priced ones can't be trusted either.
Now they know you have money.
Why's crude up 1.5%?
Damn Haloscan. This time with the correct escape sequences...
Interestingly, we decided at the last minute to go to Vegas this weekend and I was shocked at how cheap rooms there have become. <$100 on the Strip (Luxor) on Friday and Saturday nights. Wasn't long ago that it would be closer to $200 / night. And the higher end places weren't much more (Bellagio <$200 / night for the weekend)
Gotta love the HELOC financed vacations going away (and the fact that this is about the slowest time of year there)
Why's crude up 1.5%?
Anonymous | 12.09.08 - 8:24 pm | #
Over shot on the deleveraging way down.
Canada needs $50 per barrel.
Saudi's need $55 (according to their oil minister on 60 minutes).
So let's settle on $60.
citizen Kung Fu Panda writes:
Reverse mortgages getting more popular in tough economy
Essentially shorting yourself and hope your house doesn't run out of value before you die.
GAWD!
I hate this economy. I really do. I realize she made a boneheaded decision.
However, is this what it has come to in this country for the elderly?
Where is that ding-dong show where they redo the house? They couldn't have redone this woman's roof and bathrooms for a modest amount?
And what about the banksters that sell this product, esp. tageting the elderly, infirm, etc.?
Sometimes, I just wonder...
Maybe Potter was right when he told Bailey...
"You are worth more dead than alive!"
THIS COUNTRY CAN DO BETTER!
However, I don't think it has the will to even try, for the most part.
Rich,
SRS will have hard time seeing 76 again let alone 59..
Doubled avg volume today..
crossed back over 50 sma..
"I'll second that. There was a senior living facility on the boardwalk in Long Beach. "
Watch out for category 5 hurricanes. I'm not kidding.
Suspect an adjustment is in order. Hotels whose rooms go from $400/night and up use immigrant on-call labor at $10/hr. The 'return on capital' end is way out of whack.
Is this a polite way of saying they know where the bodies are buried?
I think so----
cd, can you elaborate on that?
Chavez needs $50 a barrel to have his heavy, sour oil make a profit.
Terre Haute, IN- 2 brand new luxury hotels, across the street from each other, downtown. Lots of demand by high end consumers to stay in downtown Terre Haute?
I too have been loading up SRS Jan calls.
Is it just me that expects 9000 to be broken for a day's close... THEN we get the major turn down to the low 7's or high 6's by Dec 25th ?
rich - when Kung Fu Panda said it was insane to use your reverse mortgage money to fix up your place, I think he meant 'their' place, meaning the new 'owner' - (my interpretation, anyway)
--
"THIS COUNTRY CAN DO BETTER! However, I don't think it has the will to even try, for the most part."
OCDan.
It lacks the personnel!
(Not in numbers but in ability).
Jas
Lots of demand by high end consumers to stay in downtown Terre Haute?
Don
The federal death row is in Terre Haute at the Terre Haute Federal Correctional Complex.
Jas,sorry you had to learn that lesson the hard way.
Jas Jain writes:
"THIS COUNTRY CAN DO BETTER! However, I don't think it has the will to even try, for the most part."
OCDan.
It lacks the personnel!
(Not in numbers but in ability).
Jas
.........yeah , people like you ,Jain..... Ph.D........
I'm still waiting for the HELOC inflated college tuitions to start crying.
Will it take no jobs, degree or not, for that to happen? It does not appear that the boomers will be giving up the leadership roles anytime soon. Why indenture yourself to be the fry guy?
.
Jas Jain writes:
Cheap whores aren't cheap either! They are both cheap in the present and likely very expensive later.
Finally, we see Jas's area of true expertise.
.
--
Jay D: ".........yeah , people like you ,Jain..... Ph.D........"
You are a fine example of my observations. I hate it when I get get confirmation so quickly.
Jas
.........Jas , apply for a position in new government....rather than killing you time here hating our country......
I pass 2 construction sites between work and the train station in downtown Chicago.
One is Marriot putting in 600 luxury rooms. The other is a La Quinta. Both started within the last year.
I'm going to Hawaii in September 2010. Hope there are still some good deals to be had then.
--
If this blog is any indication things must be deteriorating fast for many Americans. They seem to be on the edge.
Jas
Going to vegas in a week and then again in March for March Madness. Where else can u stay in Bellagio for $149 a night at such luxury. Vegas might be hurting, but its good for me and my wallet. I also cant wait to see the new Volcano at Mirage, I am staying there next week. Now if I can only get a good run at the craps table. LOL. Vegas will be fine, its hurting but the cheap rooms are attracting alot of new people who "couldnt" afford it before. Vegas is becoming affordable again thanks to this economic crisis.
--
Exposing the characteristics of born-and-bred American dopes can be a very irritating for the dopes (they are very eager to reveal themselves at the first available opportunity). I feel pity but no sympathy.
Jas
Things are indeed falling apart. What better time for us to rise up and put things back together right?
--
There are many respectable born-and-bred dopes in America, e.g. Buffett, but cheap dopes really are very cheap.
NON-STOP DEFLATION!
Jas
This is good news for Deflationary Joe.
Is the cost of anything going up right now?
Oh, right. Healthcare. Anyone thinking of a career change should start looking there.
"What in the world are we going to do with all those hotels?"
Beats me. The only night of the year they can be sure of filling up is prom night.
Cheap whores aren't cheap either! They are both cheap in the present and likely very expensive later.
Jas, you naughty naughty boy.
--
"What in the world are we going to do with all those hotels?"
Return them to their rightful owners -- the creditors! And ultimately to the ultimate suckers the US taxpayers!!
Jas
He's both a dope and a stud. Hoocudanode?!
Exposing the characteristics of born-and-bred American dopes can be avery irritating for the dopes (they are very eager to reveal themselvesat the first available opportunity). I feel pity but no sympathy.
Exposing the characteristics of born-and-bred indian dopes can be avery irritating for the dopes (they are very eager to reveal themselvesat the first available opportunity). I feel pity but no sympathy.
Cheap whores aren't cheap either! They are both cheap in the present and likely very expensive later - Jas
Please see my post about Jas, his field trip to Tijuana, and the 2 peso whores.
Jas rocks! After they stopped laughing
I hope this doesn't endanger my nearly 1 million Marriott Rewards points. I gave up a significant portion of my life for those.
Jas Jain
You can't expect everybody to understand what is really happening. Not everybody is versed in econ or finance. Yes they will suffer, but through no fault of their own.
You expect too much ...
Jas Jain
You can't expect everybody to understand what is really happening. Not everybody is versed in econ or finance. Yes they will suffer, but through no fault of their own.
You expect too much ...
mmckinl | 12.09.08 - 9:09 pm | #
I don't expect him to understand. He's obviously psychosocially damaged.
Maybe strong idea for everybody to get PHD in finance and economics...this make sure everybody wins
Comments?
Pavel Chichikov writes:
"I'll second that. There was a senior living facility on the boardwalk in Long Beach. "
Watch out for category 5 hurricanes. I'm not kidding.
Pavel Chichikov | 12.09.08 - 8:28 pm | #
Pavel. No kidding. This place - Long Island - acts as if we're immune to those things. My lender didn't require it but I've got flood insurance anyway seeing as how I can see the bay from my back deck about 100 yds away.
If one of those things heads this way family and I will be long gone. I had family in New Orleans who saw their house get flooded and then coated in oil(St Bernard Parish). They didn't need flood but thankfully had it. Many of their friends did not. When they visisted a few years ago they said "you do have flood insurance right?" Next day the $300 or so check was in the mail...
I too have been loading up SRS Jan calls.
2x leverage not enough for you, eh?
Gotta love the degenerate gambling mentality!
I don't expect him to understand. He's obviously psychosocially damaged.
~~~~~
Maybe a bit of reflection will sort it out ...
"Vegas is becoming affordable again thanks to this economic crisis."
A lot of things are now that the HELOC ATMs are down.
--
"Jas, you naughty naughty boy."
Guilty as charged. I like to toy with dopes when they are jumping up and down wanting my attention. Give dopes what they ask for to quiet them down for the moment. They never grew up (a part and parcel of the breeding dopes process).
Things will get bad so rapidly that Gangistan wouldnt be able to control Dopeland. Gangistan WILL suffer the consequences of breeding dopes and talking advantage. All "good" things must come to an end. The end for Gangistan would be horrible event for America and the world.
Jas
You like gangland whores, jas? Please, tell us more.
mmckinl writes:
I don't expect him to understand. He's obviously psychosocially damaged.
~~~~~
Maybe a bit of reflection will sort it out ...
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narcissistic_personality_disorder>the Answer
--
"You expect too much ..."
mmckinl,
Wrong assumption. I expect nothing. I share my observations and conclusions. Some can't handle them. That is all.
Jas
[But I bought SRS today at $78 and I don't live within a 150-mile radius of Toledo. Should I sell?
Igor]
It'll hit $130 in a week. I don't think it'll see $59 for a long long time.
Jas, you know anyone like this?
Narcissistic personality disorder:
A pervasive pattern of grandiosity (in fantasy or behavior), need for admiration, and lack of empathy, beginning by early adulthood and present in a variety of contexts, as indicated by five (or more) of the following:
1. has a grandiose sense of self-importance
2. is preoccupied with fantasies of unlimited success, power, brilliance, beauty, or ideal love
3. believes that he or she is "special" and unique
4. requires excessive admiration
5. has a sense of entitlement
6. is interpersonally exploitative
7. lacks empathy
8. is often envious of others or believes others are envious of him or her
9. shows arrogant, haughty behaviors or attitudes
A pervasive pattern of grandiosity (in fantasy or behavior), need for admiration, and lack of empathy,
I have heard many times from Mr. Jain that he pities the dopes, and pity is an emotion which requires empathy.
"One can always be kind to people about whom one cares nothing."
Oscar Wilde
jay,
you seem to be the kind of solid, productive citizen America is looking for to lead us out of this economic nightmare. Good luck in vegas and be sure to spend anything you win.
--
Every born-and-bred American dopes is a shrink! Just think about 200M+ shrinks during a nasty depression. They will kill each other by shrink-talk, aka psychoanalysis!
God save America from economists and shrinks.
Jas
Jas Jain ~ Wrong assumption. I expect nothing. I share my observations and conclusions.
~~~~~
You are applying value judgments ...
jay [Vegas will be fine, its hurting but the cheap rooms are attracting alot of new people who "couldnt" afford it before]
LOL! I am sure LV operators relish the thought of attracting those that can barely afford a room. The place doesn't come close to penciling in on rooms & meals. They are the loss leaders. They need playas and cheap guests don't count.
I have heard many times from Mr. Jain
Hoopajoops LTD | Homepage | 12.09.08 - 9:26 pm | #
Please, if you value your Hoopajoops: The arrogant and haughty Mr. Jain is properly titled Dr.
Hahahahahahaha. A credit to PhDs everywhere.
Anonymous writes:
Jas, you know anyone like this?
Anonymous very good diagnosis
Convert the hotels to white collar criminal prisons.
"I am shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!
Yes and worse than that.
But there is also the issue of timing. For whatever reason (maybe Big 3 bailout) a lot of liquidity is being pumped into stocks right now. Liquidity loves to trounce SRS.
Of course, the liquidity pumps can't last.
So, I will recant my $59 call.
Instead, I am buying SRS again on Christmas Eve.
Every born-and-bred American dopes is a shrink! Just think about 200M+ shrinks during a nasty depression. They will kill each other by shrink-talk, aka psychoanalysis!
God save America from economists and shrinks.
Jas
Jas Jain | Homepage | 12.09.08 - 9:29 pm | #
So that means you don't know anyone who fits the description?
--
"and pity is an emotion which requires empathy."
Hoopajoops LTD,
I disagree.
Jas
Anonymous(Good) writes:
Please, if you value your Hoopajoops..
Good sir, if I did something so foolish as actually valuing my hoopajoops, the entire business model on which my company and a greater part of this financial system is based would completely and totally collapse!
Hoopajoops must never be valued, accounted, scrutinized, examined, or subjected to any kind of market forces other than carefully orchestrated sales between well meaning market making entities at very specific times for the purpose of setting a valid price point which can be used for projecting value into an infinite timeline culminating in the realization of an infinite asset valuation whose mere calculation results in an error in all accounting instruments and thus necessitates new quantum accounting measures which are by their very definition unfalsifiable and thus un-subjegable to modern science, rationality, or human comprehension!!!!
No Cal SC writes:
I'm going to Hawaii in September 2010. Hope there are still some good deals to be had then.
I would suggest stealing a 30' Cal or Erickson, and just follow the few remaining jet trails west--
You can see the Big Island from a long distance away, as the peaks are almost 14000--
Forget about coming back, the tacking is a bitch.
Hoopajoops,
Would that valuation not constitute an actual observation, thus violating Schroedinger's conditions for superposition, hence no longer hoopajoops to be both long and short themselves simultaneously? The horror!
--
"You are applying value judgments ..."
mmckinl,
Don't you? Are you a robot?
A person without value judgment has no values or judgment. Shrinks have done the damage to Americans. And so have economists.
Jas
energyecon, I'm afraid that I am forbidden from answering that question.
By the by, energyecon, are you interested in joining the CR dream team? A bunch of us have gotten together to produce a collaborative online resource, and I think nova named you as someone who we should ask aboard.
This dog is tired of chasing some pointless commenters' nonsense. Go away and find another place to muck up everyone else's onpoint comments.
Way OT and somewhat tin hatish but something I have been wondering about with the greek riots
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Born-and-bred American dopes are highly predictable. American doping process is very thorough.
Jas
They were so sure if the TARP funds and alphabet lending programs put out enough cash everything would be ok (Keynesian thought).
Saving banks during a financial crisis predates Keynes by at least a century.
Jas, aren't you late for a cocktail party or social engagement? You must be all the rage at parties, fighting off the groupies... err... paying the hookers with rupies.
So, is this why Hilton sold out 18 months ago? I remember someone here on CR saying this 18 months ago. Also, what hotels are offering good deals now?
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Enough dope-watch/research for a day. Dopes were extremely co-operative in revealing themselves and their common behavior that is the result of systematic breeding, e.g., shrinking.
Good night.
Jas
Jas have you ever considered just adding "etc. etc. etc." instead of typing the same stuff out? We'd still get the point. For instance:
"Enough dope-watch/research for a day. Dopes were extremely co-operative in revealing themselves and their common behavior that is the result of systematic breeding, e.g., shrinking."
could be easily summarized to
"Enough dope-watch/research for a day. Dopes were extremely co-operative in revealing themselves and their common behavior etc. etc. etc,"
and we'd still totally get the main thrust.
"Wisdom Seeker writes:
Okay, so Barley loses points for creativity"
I dont mind loosing on yesterdays news 'cause we have a NEW DEAL.
Hotels will be hard pressed to make ends meet. And dont forget the new hotel concept is to attach condos for that exclusive thingy (Hows that working? Not!)
Car rental the same thing - Advantge went bust today.
Jas, please come home. Americans have no money left but we can throttle some Parsees for fun and profit..
Will you guys PLEASE stop feeding the troll.
comrade scared shitless wrote
"....If you think they truly expected this to result in more lending, they have some swampland to sell you. Their statements were meant for public consumption. They knew that this money was going to be hoarded, and that was their intention all along.
Comrade Scared Shitless | 12.09.08 - 8:03 pm |
comrade SS, you speak the word!
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Couldn't resist...
"Hotel Bust:"
Police rounded up 20 dopes and whores at California Resort Hotel.
Jas
lama writes:
I hope this doesn't endanger my nearly 1 million Marriott Rewards points. I gave up a significant portion of my life for those
I guess the only benefit of pricing yourself by the hour??
(sorry could not resist)
Ya, what Snaff sid.
Police rounded up 20 dopes and whores at California Resort Hotel.
Jas Jain | Homepage | 12.09.08 - 9:52 pm | #
What? No Link? Did you know this cuz you were one of the johns?
ew thread
"systematic breeding, e.g., shrinking."
Is this supposed to mean something in English?
Compeletely nonsensical.
Oh thank dog for that. He's finally gone.
Now I can post.
Actually, I'd say Fortunately Gone, a la the Breeders.
YouTube - Breeders - Fortunately Gone
Had some fun re the short bonds today, winding up co-workers coming from an "it's all good from here" bent. Bwaha etc.
C
tg is a born & bred ahole writes:
Way OT and somewhat tin hatish but something I have been wondering about with the greek riots
Not off topic at all. The Olympics broke that nation. Taxes beyond belief to cover the costs. A class in society that acts as over-lords. Now the people have had enough. A portend to what may happen in the US or UK or both - who knows.
Or in Vancouver ! Or Chicago !
I'm posting to you fine 'mericans from a hotel room. Bucking the trend.
I guess I better sell my hotel stock.
Maybe all these excess hotel rooms should be converted:
- back into retirement hotels
- or into brothels
- or better yet, into prisons.
SRS at $80 or $60 is the same thing to me. I started buying at $120. I enjoy seeing it go to $80 because I buy all the way down. Will it go to $40? We can only hope.
I'll cheer the REIT's to great new heights in the coming months even though it will mean me losing a lot of paper money. And then once they all crash and burn, I'll sell my SRS for 100% returns. I hope it takes six months. Volatility builds character. If this was easy, the nutbags at Goldman Sachs would be able to do it. I'd prefer it not be easy.
And then maybe I'll write note about why we should legalize hemp.
In general people can know what the odds are in a casino. In general the game is fixed and everyone can know that it is fixed and the odds. In the case of high finance, stock investments and investments in MBSs and CDSs, not so much.
central_scrutinizer(Unrated) writes:
I too have been loading up SRS Jan calls.
2x leverage not enough for you, eh?
Gotta love the degenerate gambling mentality!
central_scrutinizer | 12.09.08 - 9:14 pm | #
Sorry, you've got the wrong guy. Never had a gambling problem. Never been in debt after student loans timely repaid.
My investments are up several hundred percent this year and I can afford to speculate with house money.
Rich is in great form tonight.
Concerning the old lady with the reverse mortgage: in law there is something called a "life estate." It's an exclusive right to use property until your death after which it reverts to the beneficial owner or to some other party. In truth, the most any of us EVER has is a life estate if we stay in a place since we can't take it with us. It makes plenty of sense to cash out and fix up the place to enjoy while you live in it. And the drinks and guests provide the spice. Everything that happens afterward is of no concern to you whatsoever.
groupies... err... paying the hookers with rupies.
bearly a poet!
Jas has been clear headed and ahead of the curve so far; however he quickly gets shackled by the law of diminishing returns as we prod ourselves by poking him....
new thread
mmckinl | 12.09.08 - 9:56 pm |
LOL! I always wanted to do that before the pig came to being (thanks Ken) just never had the balls.
Havent thought of it since... cheers!
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Anecdotal evidence: Maison de Ville (small boutique) hotel in the French Quarter abruptly closed and is for sale, as of last week. New Orleans recovery has sparked a wave of new restaurant openings around the city; unfortunately, the supply is through the roof and this isn't Manhattan. I am fearful of what the effects will be on the still struggling economy down here.
Vegas needs Players, conventioners, tourists, Joe Blow, the mindless. They need it all, not just one type of person. sure the gamblers are great and help alot, but u need the whole spectrum of folk to come out. Vegas is cheap and the rooms are great at these prices. Bellagio is so cheap now at under $130 a night, I use to only dream of staying there now I can. I was staying at the Luxor and its great,but for $30 more I want to stay at a 5 star place and indulge once in my life. LOL. Vegas and other places are on sale, have fun!
In October I called a AZ resort that wanted $400/night. I asked for a deal. Guy said that $400 was the deal. I said that was the price on their website. Silence.
He said "2 levels of rooms are already sold out." I asked how many levels there were. He said 6. I told him that meant that 66% were available. Silence.
I stopped trying to give him money then & hung up.
True story.
Lodging was due for a retrenching anyway with the addition of new properties outstripping the growth in demand in recent years, especially considering the explosion in competition from vacation rental condominiums in many of the most important markets.
What can you do with a failed hotel property? It seems like in some cases you might be able to convert to condos. But in this market, that probably isn't an option.
I can certainly comment on this one - 500k "hilton points" earned each of the past 2 years as a zone manager for a car company in cities like Las Cruces NM, Albuquerque nm, Tucson AZ, and all over SoCal. Also had 50 round trips a year on Southwest and $40 per day in meal allowances...
Lost my job a couple of months ago and wasn't replaced -
Cost to the economy? I don't know, maybe $3-4k a month average, not including my "phat" salary...
Plus, unemployed people still get those gubmint checks... I think I contribute about $80 a month from those to tax revenue - it's gonna take a while for me to pay my "share" of that $700B...
A few million here and there and then you start talking real money...
the graph link doesn't work for me.