DOT: Gasoline Demand Increases in October
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Fri, 12/12/2008 - 10:24am (119 comments)
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Mmmm elasticity
it can't be (first?)
All I do is sit and watch for new posts all day long.
Buy gas now or be priced out forever?
emo: elasticity tastes like chewing on rubber.
Does this include the miles driven by auto execs from Detroit to Washington? I would remove those from the stats...
Clearly this argues for bailing out GM so they can build more Hummers.
Does this include human ethanol consumption?
One of the very few things that is missing from the near-perfect storm of economic cliff diving is the decline in commodity prices, including gas.
I wonder what Bush could do to raise commodity prices before he 'departs' so we'd have a historical record of FAIL.
Can I haz mah Fjiord Expedishun now?
Doofus: no, out of stock, but you can haz a hummer.
Okay, I'll bite.
Why do miles increase from Sept. to October? What happens in October, besides Halloween, Canadian Thanksgiving and the fact that it's National Rollerskating Month?
Foliage tours?
[laughing to myself at market absurdity]
ICF (commercial real estate ETF) is up 4.3% today. The magic hand at work.
Recession deja vu...Ice storm leaves hundreds of thousands without power
bailout with emphasis on fuel efficient cars should arrive just in time...
locust: surely that must be fault of liberal Massachusetts....
Anyone know why SRS is taking it on the chin today? Why is CRE doing well?
oh boy, we are going to get more stories about the weather being the cause of bad numbers...heck, and some of it may even be true!
Why do miles increase from Sept. to October?
My guess would be that September vacations remove a good chunk of daily commutes from the numbers.
citizen energyecon: except on CNBC and Faux Biz channel, where the big story is the bad numbers caused the storm.
looks like 2-3 is an up hour.
Doofus: no, out of stock, but you can haz a hummer.
Probably shouldn't ask for....married.
Poor Iceland. This years herring catch has a parasite that will have long term implications.
Home | NewsFrettir - Icelandic news in English
Well, tis Friday. What 'good news' can we expect after 5PM from Bush's few remaining Friday attrocity dumps after hours?
Sorry to go OT so early in the thread, but a study done at San Diego State found that Sell-rated stocks outperform those rated Buy. The author goes on to say:
"Although harsh, one may conclude from these findings that, as a whole, the analyst community either has no real stock-picking expertise or they have expertise, but they have been corrupted by conflicts of interest. The Sarbanes-Oxley Act was supposed to deal with conflict of interest issues, but results from this study suggest it has failed. Our analysis examined whether the accuracy of analysts' predictions improved after Sarbanes-Oxley was passed. At least through the time period of the study, Sarbanes-Oxley had no impact on accuracy. If anything, analyst's performance deteriorated."
Here's the Barrons link
(might be behind paywall, not sure)
SRS takes it on the chin when the Fed pumps a lot of liquidity into the stock market. Today is a big pump day.
The pumps actually started last night to keep the yen from dropping through the floor and pump U.S. index futures.
One way to judge the degree of the pump is by the differential between Euro stocks and U.S.
Euro stocks are falling behind again, which indicates more fed pumps. Apparently, the fed doesn't have pump action in Europe.
When Euro stocks fall too far behind, the fed's ability to pump liquidity into the U.S. stock market gets limited.
At this point, the fed's daily manipulation of the markets is just business as usual.
I am getting to where I can almost see the Fed pump actions coming and make a few trades.
About an hour ago, I saw a big pump coming this p.m., probably accelerating into the close. Then, they'll announce some bailout this weekend and make a big drama of it to pump a rally on Monday.
They are determined to keep a Santa Claus rally alive. That's why shorts aren't working the way they should.
Just wait until January for serious shorting.
Gas is up $.30 in the past few days here in KY, yet oil prices are mostly stable if not falling, down almost 6% just today. A few of my co-workes reported $.20 jumps in the past couple of hours.
If people keep getting laid off around Silicon Valley, traffic and gasoline usage in the BA might actually decline despite lower gas prices!
Here are some select minor-news headlines from the SJ/SV Biz Journal:
"Moody's: Mercury News owner at risk of default"
"Analogic Tech to cut jobs, lowers guidance"
"Silicon Graphics to cut 225 jobs"
"Fairchild Semi to cut 1,100 jobs"
"Techwell lowers Q4 guidance"
JimPortlandOR writes:
Well, tis Friday. What 'good news' can we expect after 5PM from Bush's few remaining Friday attrocity dumps after hours?
Are there any bank seizures scheduled for this evening?
~~~
Here are some select minor-news headlines from the SJ/SV Biz Journal:
WTF - don't they know Hank?
As I noted in my thoughts on oil, I expected vehicle miles to start increasing again with lower prices.
That thar is some fancy deduction. Do you expect miles driven to increase or decrease as the population transitions over to mutant zombie bikers?
FWIW, I'm sure glad to see falling gas prices.
OT, I think the Madoff fraud should ease some of the forced liquidations from hedge funds. Simply put, there is nothing left to liquidate.
Pre-packaged bankruptcy. Try prepackaged liquidation.
Thanks Bernie. Time to short volatility.
Risky stocks are outperforming quality stocks because investors-in-the-know are convinced the fed has their back.
The risk/reward balance is skewed in favor of risk. They can take what should be big risks in REITs, small-caps, emerging markets and tech stocks because they know the fed is putting a floor under the market.
When that floor temporarily gives way, like it did yesterday afternoon with the auto bailout blow-up, they know the fed will bring in reinforcements (new liquidity) to hold the line.
When you see quality stocks start outperforming crummy stocks, you'll know the fed is running out of ammunition. That's when to go seriously short.
Rules May Make Hiring Foreign Farmworkers Easier
Rules May Make Hiring Foreign Farmworkers Easier : NPR
Bush has changed some labor rules that make it far easier for large corporate farms to recruit and hire foreign workers on HB2 visas. Another move to lower wages and standards of living.
Middle class America and labor is being permanently destroyed.
I always wondered why the auto bailout went from 34B to 15B. Now we have the answer. M Fuck**s
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson had until today resisted calls to use the TARP to aid the automakers. The Treasury has committed all but about $15 billion of the first half of the funds since the plan was enacted Oct. 3.
rich -
you need to stay off the drugs.
the market has been destroyed.
seems most expect things to go to 0 on this board.
the easy money has been made on the short side.
now its time to go to the sidelines and let the gready bears and uber-bulls get buried as the market flip-flops.
there is no govt intervention - just the last of the greedy (bulls and bears) trading among each other.
eventually, they will both lose....
Oh, so the entire auto industry is not in distress, only GM is?
I mean, that is what the Asian girl just said on CNBC.
Just wait until January for serious shorting.
~~~~
How about 12/26 ?
Middle class America and labor is being permanently destroyed.
GM | 12.12.08 - 2:21 pm | #
The scattered wingnuts here don't get it. There has been all out class warfare against 98% of us for most of the last 30 years.
They pushed things too far under the Boy King, and now the pendulum will swing back. I just hope some of the 2% and their enablers swing as well.
Traitors, all of them. Not to mention - Crooks and Scamsters!
Is it possible to fall in love with a news story?
Because that is how I am starting to feel about this Madoff thing.
Another point in favor of driving is that air fares are still very high. Airline industry is trying to squeeze as much profit as it can before cutting fares after the holidays.
Is it possible to fall in love with a news story?
Because that is how I am starting to feel about this Madoff thing.
Yeah, too bad Gary left too early last night.
OT, I think the Madoff fraud should ease some of the forced liquidations from hedge funds. Simply put, there is nothing left to liquidate.
Pre-packaged bankruptcy. Try prepackaged liquidation.
::::
The other reason why redemtions are a non-issue - nothing to redeem. Merry Christmas!!
BTW - my adviser where I got my MS used to say it isn't a real bust until massive fraud was disclosed... his specialty was mfg turnarounds & studied the 'operational' aspects of GDI (unlike BB who was all macro theory).
Well I think we got our first real humdinger of a fraud case. Question is: Is anyone else out there going to raise the bar? Records are made to be broken.
Is it possible to fall in love with a news story?
Because that is how I am starting to feel about this Madoff thing.
Yes. That story had me at "ponzi scheme"
Nemo,
I'm with you. This story is incredible - and absolutely huge. By the way, my guess is that Bernie Madoff isnt the only ponzi imitator out there.....
GM writes:
Rules May Make Hiring Foreign Farmworkers Easier
Bush has changed some labor rules that make it far easier for large corporate farms to recruit and hire foreign workers on HB2 visas. Another move to lower wages and standards of living.
Won't this also keep food prices from rising at astronomical rates?
I mean, c'mon, picking lettuce doesn't take a whole lot of skilled laborers to do. Get some high school kids to do it after school if they have to.
this Madoff thing ...
~~~~
Gotta love the irony. Looks like a lot of Palm Beach Country Club Members will be pushing for more regulation, and a law that would make this kind of crime a capital offense.
How many other Madoffs are out there? I'm guessing Madoff's not a one off.
I wonder if the indictment of former nasdaq chair madoff for using his investment firm as a ponzi pyramid will rattle the "gated" hedge fund investors out there.
You think they have any protections from reckless short-term investing by the managers?
Many probably know they can kiss that money goodbye. Unredeemed hedge fund investors are going to be bigtime bagholders.
One hedgies opinion on the Madoff fraud. Highly entertaining.
Cassandra Does Tokyo: Bernie Comes Out of the Closet
Gotta love the irony. Looks like a lot of Palm Beach Country Club Members will be pushing for more regulation, and a law that would make this kind of crime a capital offense.
\t mmckinl | \t \t \t \t12.12.08 - 2:28 pm | #
Capital punishment? Just have to extradite him to Russia - problem solved.
I mean, c'mon, picking lettuce doesn't take a whole lot of skilled laborers to do. Get some high school kids to do it after school if they have to.
Larry | 12.12.08 - 2:28 pm | #
Listen to the story. Unemployment figures will mean taking any job available will come back in vogue. Why hire American at minimum wage when you can hire H2B visa holders and work them like dogs. If they complain you yank the visa and deport them.
Most hedge funds have a "Madoff" aspect to them. So much of their holdings are illiquid that the last to redeem get cents on the dollar. While the early the guys get par.
I hope "Madoff Scheme" trumps "Ponzi Scheme" in the future - those of italian descent have been getting screwed by that for centuries....
Yeah, too bad Gary left too early last night.
sdtfs | 12.12.08 - 2:27 pm | #
sdtfs, I read your comment last night from the bowl at home on my blackberry and got a laugh out of it. Read most comments on my way to work this morning as we had family visitors, was not allowed to be an antisocial CR(ack) addict.
Nemo, I saw her first!
Sports Guy Lafleur writes:
Why do miles increase from Sept. to October?
Sports Guy Lafleur | 12.12.08 - 2:02 pm
Might be as simple as there is one extra day in October.
Just have to extradite him to Russia - problem solved.
~~~~
Bad precedent for all the Russian Oligarchs hiding in the west ...
"Might be as simple as there is one extra day in October."
And two extra work days.
Just now on Marketwatch ticker:
Ecuador's president says it will default on Bonds.
Wheeeee!
uh oh...
2:27 p.m.
Ecuador won't pay interest on 2012 global bonds: report
2:25 p.m.
Ecuador's president says it will default on bonds: report
greed_will_kill_u writes:
the market has been destroyed.
seems most expect things to go to 0 on this board.
the easy money has been made on the short side.
there is no govt intervention
You are the one who needs to get off the drugs. Nobody here says the market needs to go to zero. But how about down to pre-credit-bubble levels on REITs and other market sectors?
And no govt intervention? What planet are you living on?
rich(Unrated) writes:
\tRisky stocks are outperforming quality stocks because investors-in-the-know are convinced the fed has their back.
I'm convinced. The market is acting nutty today, so I'm going long URE until close, or if 3-4PM looks like a breakthrough.
Is it possible to fall in love with a news story?
The rod blagojevich has me hooked. It's MacBeth crossed with white trash.
CR ecrits:
(Note: the usual pattern is for miles driven to increase from September to October by about 2.5%, however this October miles were up over 7% due to lower gasoline prices)
Small note of caution "miles driven" is extrapolated from gallons sold at retail. At the margins there were probably people putting in a quarter tank in Sept and filling up when prices dropped. Some bit of the "miles driven" were end loading based on price.
yeah that has been brewing for a little while, one of the larger implications of Ecuadorean default is its selective nature and rationale - that the debt is illegitimate.
And is it just a coincidence that Erin Burnett is not on the air today?
I don't think so.
Wow, look at this market gyrate ...
Whipsaw !
Another Paulson intervention. Hope Now for Detroit ... we saw how that worked out the first time for underwater homeowners.
Does anybody think Paulson actually has a plan ?
yeah, kick the can until Jan. 20...
Oh no! The Palm Beach Country Club was also a victim of Madoff's??
Say it isn't so.
" locust writes:
Recession deja vu...Ice storm leaves hundreds of thousands without power
locust | 12.12.08 - 2:04 pm | # "
Yes; It looks like my home won't have power for 4-7 days. The commute to work sucked, but at least it's warm here. The kids are probably still in bed, and there'll be nothing warm for them to eat until I can get home and light a fire for them. I may just bring home pizza if I can find a parlor open. We went thru this in '98, and it sucked then too. Probably worse this time, since I think it's going to be colder over the next week.
Agree the Madoff scheme story is fascinating.
Here's the SEC complaint pdf.
http://online.wsj.com/documents/SECcomplaint.pdf
and the FBI criminal complaint
http://online.wsj.com/documents/madoffcomplaint.pdf
There is going to be quite a bit of wailing and gnashing of teeth in many a country club thanks to Madoff...
Oh no! The Palm Beach Country Club was also a victim of Madoff's??
~~~~
Yep and some Russians too ... Madoff is looking to a maximum security prison like Super Max in Colorado ... Only place he'll be safe ... What he does for his family I don't know ...
Chart looks like a failed attempt to cross the Misty Mountains . . . it's Moria from here on out.
The rod blagojevich has me hooked. It's MacBeth crossed with white trash.
\t Basel Too | \t \t \t \t12.12.08 - 2:36 pm | #
::::
Man when they do a year end recap - what are they gonna do?
Spitzer?
Madoff?
Bagojevich?
Did I leave anyone out? Don't want to do that.
Chart looks like a failed attempt to cross the Misty Mountains . . .
~~~~
Who would go long the weekend ....?
not I ...
"Chart looks like a failed attempt to cross the Misty Mountains . . . it's Moria from here on out."
Beware the action hour. Compare yesterday + today's charts to exactly a week ago. Talk amongst yourselves.
mmckinl writes:
Who would go long the weekend ....?
not I ...
I have some UGL long I'm going to keep, but otherwise, no.
xxxxx writes:
The kids are probably still in bed, and there'll be nothing warm for them to eat until I can get home and light a fire for them.
Maybe you should leave early so you don't arrive home to frozen children.
"Infectious Greed" blogger Paul Kedrosky did a video interview on the coming CRE crash:
Over Here
We'll see what happens when they press Paulson for details on using the TARP for Detroit...
Until then it's limbo time ... Whipsaw !
November Retail Sales Show Suspicious Advances, Greenlaw Says
By Carlos Torres
Dec. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The government may have overcompensated for the very late Thanksgiving this year, causing Novembers retail sales figures to appear stronger than they actually were, according to Morgan Stanley economists David Greenlaw and Ted Wieseman.
We are somewhat suspicious of the November results, Greenlaw, the firms chief fixed-income economist, and Wieseman, both based in New York, said in a note to clients. If our hunch is correct, either the November results will subsequently be revised downward or there will be an offset in December.
November Retail Sales Show ‘Suspicious’ Advances, Greenlaw Says - Bloomberg.com
Short courage -
what are pre-bubble levels in your opinion?
given the markets are trading near 1998 levels we must be getting close even if you assume NO inflation...
greed'll will kill you every time.
WAH! I want everything to trade at what I think pre-bubble levels were! WAH! This isnt fair! WAH! The market is only down about 50%! WAH!
give me a break.
it sounds just like the uber-bulls who called for DOW 20K!!
we need to flush all of the greed out of the system - in both the bears and the bulls - and it will happen.
seems most daytraders these days buy puts.
maybe that is the next bubble coming....
The government may have overcompensated for the very late Thanksgiving this year,
~~~~
Our government fudge the figures ! ! !
Hush your mouth ...
greed_will_kill_u: Um, how much bubble was already inflated in 1998? We're headed back down to mid 90's levels, if not mid 80's...
Greed,
Why dont you just go long and run with it..Why come here and say were at bottom, everything is better while bashing other posters who have right now a better track record than you?
I don't get it...Buy if you feel so good..are you coming here to make a decision...
greed_will_kill_u | 12.12.08 - 2:50 pm
That and treasuries
In October, we had to road-train a bunch of new delivery drivers to feed all the FDIC new hires.
"Just wait until January for serious shorting.
rich | 12.12.08 - 2:15 pm | # "
Inauguration day?
Blackhalo | 12.12.08 - 2:55 pm
Year end audits
Does anybody think Paulson actually has a plan ?
mmckinl | 12.12.08 - 2:37 pm | #
Oh I think he has a plan, alright.
What's it say when you're getting 69 bps higher in your Citibank money market account than the 30 year long bond?
Coming soon to a tax base near you (some of you, anyway):
GM to temporarily close 20 plants to slash output
NEW YORK General Motors Corp. said Friday it will temporarily close 20 factories across North America and make sweeping cuts to its vehicle production as it tries to adjust to dramatically weaker automobile demand.
GM said it will cut 250,000 vehicles from its production schedule for the first quarter of 2009, which includes a cut of 60,000 vehicles announced last week. Normal production would be around 750,000 cars and trucks for the quarter, spokesman Tony Sapienza said.
Many plants will be shut down for the whole month of January, he said, and all told, the factories will be closed for 30 percent of the quarter.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
"Does anybody think Paulson actually has a plan ?
mmckinl | 12.12.08 - 2:37 pm | # "
Sure, backstop GS from BK. Mission accomplished. He'll be back on the board by the end of next year.
Coming soon to global trade balances near you (that is all of us this time):
WTO drops plans for year-end Doha meeting
GENEVA (Reuters) The World Trade Organization (WTO) dropped plans on Friday to seek a breakthrough for a new trade deal this year, risking an increase in protectionism as the world economy suffers its worst crisis in decades.
Key members voiced disappointment at the decision, but vowed to push on with the negotiations next year, when economic conditions will be harder and the new administration of Barack Obama will have taken office in the United States.
WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy told members he had decided against calling trade ministers to Geneva this month to push for a deal in the WTO's seven-year-old Doha round, because they were not showing enough political will to narrow differences.
The decision means ministers were unable to meet a call by leaders of the G20 rich and emerging nations last month to reach an outline Doha deal by the end of this year to help counter the financial crisis by warding off protectionism.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
citizen energyecon writes:
GM to temporarily close 20 plants to slash output
From what I've read, GM will still have to pay the layed off workers 95% of their pay anyway.
SO yes, they have less unsold inventroy building up, but they don't save that much in labor costs.
greed_will_kill_u -
I agree with you. Greed isn't always a great strategy. Just ask the good people at GGP. Or any of the other fine companies overbuilding malls in this country.
Or maybe the condo developers.
Or the hotel industry.
Or the bankers lending all that money.
It will, in many cases, destroy them.
I'm not sure they post here though, so you may be wasting your time with that message.
cd -
You're not reading my posts - I see risk everywhere - long and short - i want nothing to do with the market on either side. Instead I'm sitting all in cash and going to watch the last of the bulls and bears trade among themselves until the lose either all of their money or all of their patience. At that point fundamentals take over. There are no fundamentals now. The statement "pre-bubble" levels is ridiculous - it involves NO fundamental analysis. Its just like someone saying the market is a bargain because its down so much. Well, i buy neither argument.
All I know is that the greed is epic and both bulls and bears share equally in that flaw.
greed will also kill you.
I'm on the sidelines and have been for almost a month. Prior to that I was very short.
playing the market right now is a no win situation. Today is the perfect example. we're up today even though the news is awful.
the volume is anemic because only fools are trying to trade this market.
Ian - you may be right, but I dont know - see what happened to the 10 year in Japan since 1990.
Hi,
This is the begining of tourism season. Lot's of folks on vacation. Also, November is going to be an even better month than before, when we take a look at the holiday numbers.
While oil is by no means back. This should be good news for oil companies.
Youri
Global View Today!
The Big Three mark autos as revenue when they ship to the dealers. GAAP at it's best.
We need a GM jobs bank Czar !
SO yes, they have less unsold inventroy building up, but they don't save that much in labor costs.
\t William | \t \t \t \t12.12.08 - 3:03 pm | #
:::::
Again - something like 60% of the cost of mfg is in PARTS... <10% in direct labor. So shutting down [and not taking delivery of parts] saves them quite a lot of immediate cashflow IF they can push out payments to suppliers that much farther. The thing is they usually have AP between 90 & 120 days so they will still be obliged to pay for stuff they received 90-120 days ago.
But maybe they just don't pay it. Not like THAT never happens in the auto parts world. [/snark]
the big 3 CEO's need to be bent over and driven to Dallas...
Sheer genius. Next bailout.
"The bill rolls back parts of the Pension Protection Act of 2006, which was intended to close loopholes in the federal law that requires companies to put adequate money behind their pension promises. The loopholes became starkly apparent at the beginning of this decade, when a number of big steel and airline pension funds collapsed, forcing the federal pension insurance program to absorb billions of dollars in losses."
Pension Funds Get a Reprieve in Congress - NY Times
William writes:
From what I've read, GM will still have to pay the layed off workers 95% of their pay anyway.
Don't be ridiculous. Why would a company pay a worker they just laid off?
Where did you hear such nonsense?
Now that's power! Open, defiant use of OPM against their will with inherent opacity. This is like a virus hijacking cell DNA to take over all functions of cell regulation.
Anger that provoked Boston Tea Party was but the smallest shadow of this devised sinistry!
Fed Refuses to Disclose Recipients of $2 Trillion (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Found this bit in a AP write-up on the Madoff story -The SEC said it was seeking emergency relief for investors, including an asset freeze and the appointment of a receiver for the firm. A hearing was scheduled for Friday.
dryfly writes:
Again - something like 60% of the cost of mfg is in PARTS...
But the costs for the parts are the same for all of the auto companies. The costs for the labor and benefits are where GM's problems lie.
SO yes, they have less unsold inventroy building up, but they don't save that much in labor costs.
Exactly, people like myself, a tier 1 supplier to GM are going to feel the pain. I expect orders to be canceled for most of January and February. That won't be good, because we are already carrying them for 90 to 120 days. Hopefully they will use the down time to pay their bills.
greed_will_kill_u writes:
Short courage -
what are pre-bubble levels in your opinion?
given the markets are trading near 1998 levels we must be getting close even if you assume NO inflation...
The market is only down about 50%! WAH!
Sorry, was away at lunch....
I seem to have touched a nerve. Didn't mean to set you off, just wondering how you cannot see government intervention going on...you didn't really address that.
You may be right, we may be close to the bottom. I just happen to think we're not. For some fact-based explanations of why, go do some reading on ComstockFunds.com or ContraryInvestor.com. Even those bear sites admit that stocks are more fairly valued now. But they point to lots of reasons why they are likely not done dropping.
As far as your distaste for greedy speculators, I guess I can understand that. But on the other hand, some here are just trying to preserve their wealth in the face of lots of institutions trying to grab it in one way or another.
BTW, I think it is appropriate that you assume NO inflation, given that we are undergoing massive DEFLATION.
How about pent up demand after the hurrican damage and the limited supplies along the Colonial pipeline.
Tom Libby, senior director of industry analysis for J.D. Power & Associates, said his firm is now forecasting a seasonally adjusted annual sales rate of about 10.5 million vehicles for December and between 10.9 million and 11 million in the first quarter of next year. "Our position is there is no reason to believe that the first quarter of 2009 will be any better than the fourth quarter of 2008," said Libby.
Hard to find places to drive when you have no money and no job.
With that said, I think many consumers are over-reacting. They have a bunker mentality right now and we're seeing sharp declines in anything 'consumer' at the moment.
Just a test post for CR Companio
Another test post via CR Companio
Another test post via CR Companion
Mrs Black Star Ranch | 12.13.08 - 1:39 pm | #
Testing quote selectio