"The country is in default, Correa told reporters in his office in Guayaquil. Correa, calling the debt illegal and illegitimate, said the government will present a restructuring proposal to bondholders in coming days. We want creditors to recoup part of their money. "
Well, with a leader like that, I can understand why all of his citizens are running to the US looking to mow my lawn.
Ecadour, or however you spell it is totally insignificant. You know I know? Because there is only 2 Ecadourian resturants in the entire US. If they were important, like Mexico, then they would have their own famous food.
Ah, yes...it looks like it's time for some proven austerity measures here.
No more deficit spending for you, Ecuador! Increase taxes, balance the budget and deregulate your industries. Those companies that are uncompetitive must fail - it's the only way to purge the system and get the economy back on track for the long term.
oh, ah...wait a minute there...on second thought, nix that...carry on, all's well...let's just set this aside and we'll talk some more tomorrow. Cheers!
What country will be the next super-power? Strength in numbers. China's population is 1.32 billion. USA approx. 301mil(not counting illegals) annexes Mexico 108mil, Central America 40mil, and Canada 33mil.
We become too big to fail and increase resources.
USA approx. 301mil(not counting illegals) annexes Mexico 108mil, Central America 40mil, and Canada 33mil.
We become too big to fail and increase resources.
Gary did not take credit. He passed along my kudos!
Barley | 12.12.08 - 3:10 pm | #
barley, I am not sure that anonymous posted the original link . . . well into my frenzy he/she posted a link to the complaint (for which I was grateful)
But the nonsense Krugman bashing by anonymous remains BS, and there will be no apology for my bashing of anonymous in return.
And anon, you can go back over two years and see my various criticisms of fraud and bubble . . . which I believe has been not just enabled but actively encouraged by the Bush Admin and of course, Alan Greenspan.
To single out Prof Krugman for attack when there are literally hundreds of truly culpable individuals indicates you are a dishonest hack.
Happy times all, I'm off to the Christmas Spectacular.
What country will be the next super-power? Strength in numbers. China's population is 1.32 billion. USA approx. 301mil(not counting illegals) annexes Mexico 108mil, Central America 40mil, and Canada 33mil.
We become too big to fail and increase resources.
North America is a very good continent to control in the game of Risk. Only three entry points, and the bonus army allocation is sizable.
Jerry writes:
Why does the Ecuador president say the "debt is illegal"?
What does it mean?
Jerry | 12.12.08 - 3:13 pm | #
"Dots", please meet "connect" - the current administration in Ecuador is repudiating the debts of a previous government. While oil is lower, Ecuador at this time could still pay the bonds, so it is an elective default. The significance of the pronouncement of illegitimacy is...well someone just said they weren't going to pay their mortgage because their ex ran up the bill, but they were staying in the house...think there might be any other takers?
For those that think that Rich is wrong about the PPT, then how do you explain the market today? Yesterday it looked like a auto deal would get brokered eventually. Today? It's looking more an more remote. Yet the market is even-to up. I'm with Rich.
For those that think that Rich is wrong about the PPT, then how do you explain the market today? Yesterday it looked like a auto deal would get brokered eventually. Today? It's looking more an more remote. Yet the market is even-to up. I'm with Rich.
Sully
The market knows the deal will get done and it's already priced in. Heck, I won't be surprised if a deal is brokered over the weekend and the market tanks anyway.
Wonder how this will play out in potentially unstable countries that export, like Venezuela, Russia, Nigeria, Mexico, Algeria etc. Bond defaults might be the least of their problems.
I don't know how he went about his life for years knowing he had lost billions of dollars...i would have had a mental breakdown
Ian | 12.12.08 - 3:19 pm | # "
This doesn't seem to be a problem for narcissist. Perhaps their brain chemistry is different.
""Dots", please meet "connect" - the current administration in Ecuador is repudiating the debts of a previous government. While oil is lower, Ecuador at this time could still pay the bonds, so it is an elective default. The significance of the pronouncement of illegitimacy is...well someone just said they weren't going to pay their mortgage because their ex ran up the bill, but they were staying in the house...think there might be any other takers?
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 12.12.08 - 3:20 pm | # "
That was Bush's argument why Iraq's debt didn't count anymore (post-Saddam).
This article would have reported the Titanic disaster as; "Alternative Source Reduces Ice Sales in the Ship's Lounge." They haven't defaulted, they've repudiated. "Correa, calling the debt illegal and illegitimate, said the government will present a restructuring proposal to bondholders in coming days." It's a good thing that the theoretical idea of mortgage holders walking away is contained lest it spread to entire nations.
Over the weekend there's going to be many a billionaire tossing and turning in their yacht, wondering if their best friend Ponzi de Lion was all "made up".
Hell, you never know, they may even fire a garden girl or two on Monday. Hard times!
"The PPT idea would be a more credible issue if it wasn't brought up EVERY DAY to explain both up and down market action."
--Hubbert
No, no, you misunderstand. The PPT is both schizophrenic and manic-depressive. Thus you never know whether they will pump on behalf of the bulls or the bears. Sometime they change their
mind several times per day.
"Circling the Drain writes:
How does one say "Mission Accomplished!" in Spanish?
Pondering the Mess | 12.12.08 - 3:18 pm | #
Correa has a PhD in Economics from a US University. I that might 'splain some things..."
Bloomberg news is trying to find out into whose pockets the Tarp money went. I applaud their efforts, but the thing that concerns me more is where those pockets then went?
Shouldn't there be American locator belts on those bundles of cash?
I think there is some insane tension in the market, just freaking titanic forces in opposition and closely balanced at the moment...but one little 'ping' or "yop" from the littlest Who in Whoville and it goes spla one way or another...
I heard somebody on CNBC say this is not the first time Ecuador has defaulted. They also said other oil producing countries might have the same problem.
Sully writes:
For those that think that Rich is wrong about the PPT, then how do you explain the market today? Yesterday it looked like a auto deal would get brokered eventually. Today? It's looking more an more remote. Yet the market is even-to up. I'm with Rich.
Thanks, Sully.
The auto deal fall apart and U.S. stocks rally.
Ecuador defaults on its bonds and emerging markets rally.
Right now, emerging markets should be tanking left and right. But like SRS, EEV has become a barometer for fed liquidity. If you want to know how much liquidity the fed is pumping, watch how much SRS and EEV drop.
Ecuador is not an insignificant country. In addition to oil, they export agricultural products. They are part of Chavez' anti-U.S. socialist sphere and believe the sphere can become self-supporting, especially by cutting back oil exports to the U.S.
Dream ideas to make me fall asleep tonight
1. Madoff managed Secretary Henry Paulson private wealth
2. Madoff managed the Bush's family financial assets.
ot-lost in shuffle is that GGP still has not re-worked 900 million due today after extension..earlier announcement was for next month debt payment...Could go bk over wknd...
Anonymous, Bloomberg is trying to find out where over 2 trillion has gone that has been issued by the FED. It's my understanding that is completly seperate from the TARP and in fact you can go directly to the Treasury website and see where all of the TARP funds have gone.
"Out of the speculating and gambling of the inflation period grew
luxury, and, out of this, corruption. It grew as naturally as a fungus on a muck heap"
"Now began to be seen more plainly some of the many ways in which an inflation policy robs the working class.
As these knots of plotting schemers at the city centers were becoming bloated with sudden wealth, the producing
classes of the country, though having in their possession more and more currency, grew lean. In the schemes and
speculations put forth by stock−jobbers and stimulated by the printing of more currency, multitudes of small
fortunes were absorbed and lost while a few swollen fortunes were rapidly aggregated in the larger cities. This
crippled a large class in the country districts, which had employed a great number of workmen."
Ummm, Ecuador is broke and has been broke for some time.
That's why they got rid of their own currency (formerly the "Sucre"). The Sucre wouldn't hold value. So they figured, "let's use dollars! They won't depreciate so fast!"
Correct.
However, Ecuador doesn't get to print dollars. Anyone see a minor problem?
Ecuador repudiating bonds is no surprise. Heck, they repudiated their currency, sheesh.
Lender beware.
It's kind of sad, though. Really poor, really nice people, hardworking when they can...
The "A" in TARP means "asset" right? What assets will GM and Cerberus be offering? Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.12.08 - 3:41 pm | # Hot Air. It's not worth much....
Could someone please explain the difference between Madoff, who knew his house of cards could not be sustained and would fall as soon as the bubble burst, and the dozens-hundreds-thousands of financial executives/policymakers who knew that their house of cards could not be sustained and would fall as soon as the bubble burst?
How come only Madoff gets served with a criminal complaint? How come we keep electing the same policy makers?
Well with that forecast at the end, given the track record of Wall St economists I'd say we are f'n guaranteed of a default cartel,"ODREC", the Organization of Debt REpudiating Countries.
Ecuador defaults, says to fight "monster" creditors
GUAYAQUIL, Ecuador (Reuters) Leftist President Rafael Correa defaulted on Ecuador's foreign debt on Friday, vowing to fight "monster" bond-holders in court in one of most aggressive moves against investors in the region for years.
Ecuador's debt prices immediately plunged on news of the country's second default in a decade and the first in Latin America since Argentina in 2002.
Correa, a U.S.-trained economist and ally of anti-U.S. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, refused to make a $31 million interest payment due on Monday on 2012 global bonds, saying the debt was contracted illegally by a previous administration.
"I gave the order not to pay the interest and to go into default," Correa said. "We know very well who we are up against -- real monsters."
[snip]
But the move is not expected to have a knock-on effect in other Latin American countries' debt policies even if some, such as Venezuela, have pledged to investigate any irregularities in their own debt, economists say.
The Treasury TARP site only shows funds distributed, not assets collected. What they traded the money for is important in judging if that money is ever coming back.
Preferred stock with warrants seems to be the theme. Great how if they go BK there is limited recovery. The TARP program has MAD aspects. Let the banks fail and everything fails.
Steven writes:
So if Ecuador had a FICO score, it would have dropped to under 700 after this stunt?
Steven | 12.12.08 - 3:45 pm | #
It was always below 700.
Like any good Ponzi player, holding the house of cards together is the entire art. Must hold up markets, until the superinflation takes hold! Monetary policy will make all well.
No foreign enemy ever so erosive of the US Republic as unelected Central Bankers and counterfeiters. Specially polished confidence men and sociopathic liars. Really, its in the job description.
Kevin writes:
Using a combination of crystal meth and roulette, you could easily blow through that kind of money in less than a year.
Not sure about that. Typical host edge in roulette is 5.26%. Even putting down $1000 bets would take 950,570,342 spins of the wheel to attrit $50B. At two minutes/spin and working 24x7 that would require over 3000 years..
How come only Madoff gets served with a criminal complaint?
If you take money from investor B and give it to investor A and pretend it is a "profit" then that is a Ponzi scheme. That is apparently what Madoff did. If you take money from investor B and give it to a Managing Director as a bonus and pretend he earned it, it is not a Ponzi scheme. That is what the rest of Wall Street does. Oh, and they take investor A's money, too. Just to be fair.
"Rhetorical Questioner writes:
Could someone please explain the difference between Madoff, who knew his house of cards could not be sustained and would fall as soon as the bubble burst, and the dozens-hundreds-thousands of financial executives/policymakers who knew that their house of cards could not be sustained and would fall as soon as the bubble burst?.....
Born-and-bred dopes can't be the answer, can it?"
The financial world is full of folks with overblown egos and good connections; smarts don't seem to be a prerequisite. One guys finds a way too "add value", i.e. take a cut while moving someone else's money around, and a bunch of me-too imitators jump in and try to replicate his deeds. Unfortunately, as good investment opportunities dry up, folks seem to have taken to adding leverage to maintain or improve margins, and don't seem to notice the increased risk, since it worked before....
rationaljeff writes:
Anonymous, Bloomberg is trying to find out where over 2 trillion has gone that has been issued by the FED. It's my understanding that is completly seperate from the TARP and in fact you can go directly to the Treasury website and see where all of the TARP funds have gone.
Wish the site would disclose where the bbbanks put the TARP funds....Ya right
Brevard County mall report; some shoppers, carrying some bags.
I did my best to keep Barnes & Noble in business. There was briefly a small line there.
Some years ago, actually, some decades ago, had to keep track when you're old, someone told me there were 5 millionaires in
Equador. She was a kid rehab person and was working with the kid on one of them.
trivia fact: when marie antoinette said "let them eat cake" the word cake in french means the leftover burnt crap in the oven after making bread. it's not as quaint a saying when you know that little nugget of info.
friends tell me i know very much about things that matter very little.
Unfortunately, as good investment opportunities dry up, folks seem to have taken to adding leverage to maintain or improve margins, and don't seem to notice the increased risk, since it worked before....
xxxx,
You do realize, this is the crux of the entire financial blow up? A giant pool of liquidity went looking for good investments with low risk and high returns. They didn't exist. They can't exist in an economy where workers don't get paid. So con artists made them up.
Barley - Ponies? We don't need no stinkin' ponies.
Broward - you ever hear of this guy? Jon Kleinberg (PDF alert).
He's the guy who developed rgw "Hyperlink-Induced Topic Search" algorithm - making web searching easier. He's presently "working on how word-of-mouth phenomena f...low through groups of people." (from Discover magazine).
Failure of the Colombian free trade pact.
Increased anti Americanism throughout SA.
Increased socialist government movements.
Failed economies in SA.
Long simmering feud with Peru is heating up.
i'm glad someone mentioned margins. corporate profit margins were at an all time high (9-10%) before this mess started. it's a very mean reverting series (average about 5%). So getting back to average will have a huge neg impact on short term EPS growth. gone are the days of cheap debt in the cap structure to lower cost of capital and boost margins.
My question is when is Mexico going to default? Oil and commodity prices hammered. Remissions way down. Exports starting to drop. Narcos butchering people here and there and leaving heads in schoolyards. I see nothing good about that country for 09. I guess you could say that about any developing economy. Are they not all essentially bubble economies, in that without fake credit and US over- consumption, they have had no real growth over the past 15 years?
And, as some mentioned above, I don't think the US wants or needs any kind of annexation plan for Mexico. Anyone who thinks that might happen hasn't spent enough quality time south of the border. That country is an institutional mess, and their oligarchs are more than happy to sell whatever is needed to the US or whomever. Why would the US need or want to absorb Mexico?
" Markel writes:
Unfortunately, as good investment opportunities dry up, folks seem to have taken to adding leverage to maintain or improve margins, and don't seem to notice the increased risk, since it worked before....
xxxx,
You do realize, this is the crux of the entire financial blow up? A giant pool of liquidity went looking for good investments with low risk and high returns. They didn't exist. They can't exist in an economy where workers don't get paid. So con artists made them up.
Markel | 12.12.08 - 3:59 pm | # "
Yes; I do realize that. That was sort'a my point. Guess I should've added a "/snark" or something for those who are humour challenged.
Madoff was sucha looooooser. I mean look at all that TARP money that's gone to waste. Tic, tic, tic,....should have converted to a bank and call Hank.
Hanky...I have a problem.......
Watch out w/ holding Proshares for long periods of time. Look at EEV - despite EEM down over 50% from last May, EEV made a new low from its May low. So it's been a total waste despite a correct assessment of EEM.
Peru is a long way overland from Paraguay, and Paraguay is land locked.
They couldn't feud if they wanted to.
And they don't want to.
Now Chile & Peru, or Paraguay & Bolivia, or Bolivia & Chile, or Paraguay & Argentina, those are different stories.
"Kevin writes:
Using a combination of crystal meth and roulette, you could easily blow through that kind of money in less than a year.
Not sure about that. Typical host edge in roulette is 5.26%. Even putting down $1000 bets would take 950,570,342 spins of the wheel to attrit $50B. At two minutes/spin and working 24x7 that would require over 3000 years.."
You've obviously never visited the Federal Reserve Casino. No limit betting.
50B on Black baby!
And I bet all the whales gambling there are Asian.
Stay away from those leveraged ETS's better to short the Indexes. Those things always underperform their benchmarks. Day trading instruments and nothing more...
Dropped 144 dollars for Dinner for 2 plus tax and tip. Place was half filled compared to summer. Still doing well though. Back to Jack in the box this week...
Watch out w/ holding Proshares for long periods of time. Look at EEV - despite EEM down over 50% from last May, EEV made a new low from its May low. So it's been a total waste despite a correct assessment of EEM. Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse | Homepage | 12.12.08 - 4:08 pm | #
2x ETFs are compounding the logrithmic derivatives of the underlying security, and are not a bet on the actual level of the security. Said differently, it's purely a directional bet. Each day that you are wrong on the direction costs you money.
Don't know if the stories about Bush buying land in Paraguay are true, but if true, it is odd...
The Paraguay-Bolivia border is very remote. Far from the ocean, and overland access is difficult and sparse....
imho, your'e much better off, once you decide on the direction, looking at the components of the etf and taking the appropriate action on the strongest (if you're a long) or weakest (if you're a short).
and if you're a real adrenaline junkie, you could substitue put/call options for being short/long.
[Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
Watch out w/ holding Proshares for long periods of time]
Oh, I know. Believe me. I've had that exchange with rich for over a year. The Ultra positions get clobbered over time. I use them strictly as a trading instrument, not to build LT positions...
Absolutely no tracking error with SRS. It's 2x inverse the DAILY move. So you can get big slippage. Pissed Off In California | 12.12.08 - 4:17 pm | #
Yes. People keep trying to compare the price of the 2x ETFs with their underlying security. That is just wrong wrong wrong. It is not the same as options, which are priced against the underlying security.
Pissed I bought SRs the week it came out and I have rode it to 150 Oct 08 or so...Took a good year. Good for swing trades horrible for holding. Could have shorted the IYR and done just as well w/o the volatility.
"Six decades of single-party rule in Paraguay came to an end on Sunday after Colorado Party candidate Blanca Ovelar conceded a loss to former Catholic bishop Fernando Lugo, who claimed the historic win on his promise to help the poor." Former bishop claims Paraguay election - CNN.com
Help the poor. That isn't a Bush friendly attitude. April 2008
at least in Mexico, The rest of the Spanish speaking world doesn't use the verb "chingar", unfortunately. It´s really a very flexible and useful word in many situations.
"Six decades of single-party rule in Paraguay came to an end on Sunday after Colorado Party candidate Blanca Ovelar conceded a loss to former Catholic bishop Fernando Lugo, who claimed the historic win on his promise to help the poor."
Help the poor to do what? Take more of our money? No thanks.
I spit on the poor when I see them in the streets.
SRS
this whole setup reminds me of TWM and some other etf's (Rich might have a good take on this)last year...take it down, buy lots of shares as it's going down, run up reits, hb builders one more time while shorting srs, then reverse it make killing when it hits 300 next year...
For a doofus like me who's horrible at timing but pretty good at picking up longer term trends they work quite well.
There's no way I want to start learning how to trade options in this type of market and I also don't have the time/skill to quickly swing trade.
I've found that as long as you get in close to the lower end of the downward swings in SRS/SKF. Say 110 or lower and average down you're in a good position to make 20%++ as long as you are willing to hold through some major pain.
I only put in what I'm willing to lose and I'm trading based on the expectation that CRE will get crushed further going forward and the market will have atleast one more major down leg.
I've noticed that last 3 moves on SKF/SRS have involved a final 3-4 day massive upswing after 1 or more months of slippage.
Frankly I feel much better holding SRS/SKF long term then QID, SDS etc.. as the upswings are so violent when they come.
TCA writes:
For those that think that Rich is wrong about the PPT, then how do you explain the market today? Yesterday it looked like a auto deal would get brokered eventually. Today? It's looking more an more remote. Yet the market is even-to up. I'm with Rich.
Sully
Perhaps, like me, people belived that the deal would ultimatly have no impact on GM/Chry. ablity to avoid bankrupcy anyway. It'll just effect who gets to feed on the carcass.
Correa did the right thing. Previous admin. talked down the viability of re-payment, then bought in heavy at high yeilds. IMF, Wall St. and rating agencies were in on it. Criminal behavior by the elite. Fuck them.
USAF base in Manta, Ecuador will become an intl. airport and shipping hub for S.A. Funded by the Chinese, quid pro quo for energy and mineral deals for export. China is also building a refinery near Manta for S.A. heavy crude.
Correa is ahead of the curve. American style free market, de-regulated capitalism is dead. Neo-socialism is the next prevailing political idealogy.
Pumping my own book. I've bought coastal property in Ecuador and moving there next year. Prices are cheap, people are friendly and the woman are beautiful. I'm looking forward to fading away.
Continued widening credit spreads within the commercial real estate debt markets may have adverse implications for the interest coverage ratios of U.S. equity real estate investment trusts (REITs), according to Fitch Ratings in a new report.
SRS shorts a big chunk of public storage, for one storage REIT it is not good news on the divvy front.
U-Store-It Trust , a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust focused on self-storage facilities, announced today that its Board of Trustees declared a quarterly dividend of $0.025 per common share for the period ending December 31, 2008. The dividend is payable on January 22, 2009 to common shareholders of record on January 7, 2009. The quarterly distribution represents an annualized dividend rate of $0.10 per share compared with the previous annualized dividend rate of $0.72 per share. The reduced distribution rate is expected to result in additional cash flow for the Company of approximately $39 million on an annual basis, which will be used to repay outstanding indebtedness and increase financial flexibility.
Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Ecuador President Rafael Correa's looming default on $510 million of bonds may hurt his biggest ally, Venezuela President Hugo Chavez, more than anyone else.
Ecuador, hamstrung by a tumble in oil, its biggest export, said last week it will use a 30-day grace period to decide whether to make a $30 million interest payment that came due Nov. 15. Chavez's government owns structured notes tied to Ecuador's bonds that would force Venezuela to pay $400 million if Correa doesn't make the payment, according to estimates by Barclays Capital Inc.
And what makes you think Hugo might not pull the same dodge? Especially with some arm waving of the 'legitimacy' of the debt and a little domestic red meat where he is telling the Yanquis to shove it...
Buenos Aires, Oct 13 (Prensa Latina) An Argentine official regarded the intention of the George W. Bush family to settle on the Acuifero Guarani (Paraguay) as surprising, besides being a bad signal for the governments of the region.
Luis D Elia, undersecretary for the Social Habitat in the Argentine Federal Planning Ministry, issued a memo partially reproduced by digital INFOBAE.com, in which he spoke of the purchase by Bush of a 98,842-acre farm in northern Paraguay, between Brazil and Bolivia.
The news circulated Thursday in non-official sources in Asuncion, Paraguay.
D Elia considered this Bush step counterproductive for the regional power expressed by Presidents Nestor Kirchner, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Evo Morales, Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro.
He said that "it is a bad signal that the Bush family is doing business with natural resources linked to the future of MERCOSUR."
"The Guaraní Aquifer...is one of the world's largest aquifer systems...It is said that this
vast underground reservoir could suppy fresh drinking water to the world for 200 years."
The Reverend Moon has purchased 1,482,600 acres in Chaco, Paraguay."
I always thought the Bush's liked knee bending and hand-holding with the Prince Saudis. And Dubai would be the destination.
From Pimpinturtle.com. "Oh, and both the Moonie and Bush land is located at what Paraguays drug czar
called an enormously strategic point in both the narcotics and arms trades.
And it sits atop the one of the worlds largest fresh-water aquifers."
Enh it's just Ecuador.
Enh it's just Ecuador.
Nemo | Homepage | 12.12.08 - 2:53 pm | #
We are all Ecuador now.
Don't worry, it's contained.
FED buys more agency paper....
Fed buys $3 billion in agency-backed debt - MarketWatch
For some reason i couldn't connect to CR for a while. Looks like the problem has been fixed.
$30.6M on a $10B debt? Chicken feed. Paulson has that much under the seat cushions on his couch.
Madoff lost 5x Ecuador's international debt!
Unbelievable!
EcuadOOOOOOORRR.
That's a Nineties MTV reference.
10 billion steenking dollars and they call that a default? Hah! That's pocket change. I'll send Senor Paulson down to straighten them out in no time.
Too bad they can't just print more Ecuanars (or whatever they're called) and pay off their debts that way.
Damn it's good to have the reserve currency.
Why doesn't their central bank just monetize the debt? That's what the Fed would (read: will) do...
I'm amazed that their government actually picked the lesser of two evils (regular default vs. inflation default).
YouTube -
@Rupert
They cannot do that because the debt is denominated in dollars.
Not being the reserve currency can be a bitch.
"The country is in default, Correa told reporters in his office in Guayaquil. Correa, calling the debt illegal and illegitimate, said the government will present a restructuring proposal to bondholders in coming days. We want creditors to recoup part of their money. "
Well, with a leader like that, I can understand why all of his citizens are running to the US looking to mow my lawn.
I never realized it was so bad there.
Cali next ?
"Not being the reserve currency can be a bitch."
And conversely, "it's good to be the king."
(irony/foreshadowing intentional)
Ecadour, or however you spell it is totally insignificant. You know I know? Because there is only 2 Ecadourian resturants in the entire US. If they were important, like Mexico, then they would have their own famous food.
What currency are these bonds denominated in?
They cannot do that because the debt is denominated in dollars.
~~~~
They could issue script like Cali will ...
It will have a pull date, no good after that.
Actually, I believe Ecuador uses the USD for all transactions.
Domino effect......
.......3.......2........1..........
Moody's announcing lower Ecuador's debt rating from BBB- to D
czar picosec writes:
Madoff lost 5x Ecuador's international debt!
Madoff = black swa
BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAA!
Unless of course you're a bondholder
To be more precise, USD notes and coins are legal tender in Ecuador.
"The Rapture"
Domino effect? this has nothing to do with pizza delivery in 30 minutes or less, you are WAY OFF BASE.
Moody's announcing lower Ecuador's debt rating from BBB- to D
~~~ The rating agencies always there to help, after the fact ...
Ah, yes...it looks like it's time for some proven austerity measures here.
No more deficit spending for you, Ecuador! Increase taxes, balance the budget and deregulate your industries. Those companies that are uncompetitive must fail - it's the only way to purge the system and get the economy back on track for the long term.
oh, ah...wait a minute there...on second thought, nix that...carry on, all's well...let's just set this aside and we'll talk some more tomorrow. Cheers!
Maybe they can do the work know nothings won't do, Gekko.
place your bets
Have to agree with the above comment. Ever since I switched to an Ecuadorian landscaping crew, my grounds have never looked better.
Those people are very good at what they do.
SRS getting clownhammered, gotta be worth a trade here soon.
Too many posts and comments, sorry if this is a repost. Belongs in Pony thread.
Icelander's buying horse meat - half the price of beef
Market is open. Panic buying in fashion.
Eric(Unrated) writes:
\tplace your bets
I went long URE as of 2:36PM today. Planning on closing at 1:58PM.
It doesn't make any sense to me, but who am I to argue with the market?
Sad. Don't put all of your eggs in one basket.
Best,
Youri
Global View Today!
I went long URE as of 2:36PM today. Planning on closing at 1:58PM.
PapaSloth | 12.12.08 - 3:08 pm | #
That would be really hard to do. I meant long as of 2:36PM, planning on closing at 3:58PM.
REBear writes:
"For some reason i couldn't connect to CR for a while. Looks like the problem has been fixed."
I was getting Google 403 errors for several hours when trying to access CR site. REBear, what isp are you using? I use AT&T.
This was before the Madoff thingy, and Gary jump all over me. I also posted the Madoff complaint. I am still waiting for your apology, Gary.
Anonymous
Gary did not take credit. He passed along my kudos!
Don't those Ecuadoreans know that the best solution is to get themselves a f*#king czar.
What country will be the next super-power? Strength in numbers. China's population is 1.32 billion. USA approx. 301mil(not counting illegals) annexes Mexico 108mil, Central America 40mil, and Canada 33mil.
We become too big to fail and increase resources.
I meant long as of 2:36PM, planning on closing at 3:58PM.
PapaSloth
Given how screwwwwy the market is, you previous strat was possibly doable
All Ecuador has to do is reclassify itself as a bank and, presto, TARP-vation.
Paulson can get them in under TARP. After all, Ecuador will put millions of US Autoworkers out of work in Detroit if they are not rescued.
Why does the Ecuador president say the "debt is illegal"?
What does it mean?
Exit - I want that pony meat! Its mine. Give it back!
get themselves a f*#king czar.
Yancey Ward
LOL.If I were king of the Forest....
US-Merrill cuts operating EPS view on S&P 500 by $2 to $58 ...
~~~~
At a 12 multiple that would be .... hmm...
Everyone wants a bailout now. Enemies and alliances will become a function of who gets one.
USA approx. 301mil(not counting illegals) annexes Mexico 108mil, Central America 40mil, and Canada 33mil.
We become too big to fail and increase resources.
Oceania?
O/T
Gotta say this...I cant imagine losing 50B...just cant imagine.
mmckinl writes:
US-Merrill cuts operating EPS view on S&P 500 by $2 to $58 ...
~~~~
At a 12 multiple that would be .... hmm...
mmckinl | 12.12.08 - 3:15 pm
Shhh...don't even mention that in bad recessions the market has historically hit P/Es of 8.
Gary did not take credit. He passed along my kudos!
Barley | 12.12.08 - 3:10 pm | #
barley, I am not sure that anonymous posted the original link . . . well into my frenzy he/she posted a link to the complaint (for which I was grateful)
But the nonsense Krugman bashing by anonymous remains BS, and there will be no apology for my bashing of anonymous in return.
And anon, you can go back over two years and see my various criticisms of fraud and bubble . . . which I believe has been not just enabled but actively encouraged by the Bush Admin and of course, Alan Greenspan.
To single out Prof Krugman for attack when there are literally hundreds of truly culpable individuals indicates you are a dishonest hack.
Happy times all, I'm off to the Christmas Spectacular.
What country will be the next super-power? Strength in numbers. China's population is 1.32 billion. USA approx. 301mil(not counting illegals) annexes Mexico 108mil, Central America 40mil, and Canada 33mil.
We become too big to fail and increase resources.
North America is a very good continent to control in the game of Risk. Only three entry points, and the bonus army allocation is sizable.
Barley writes:
O/T
Gotta say this...I cant imagine losing 50B...just cant imagine.
Using a combination of crystal meth and roulette, you could easily blow through that kind of money in less than a year.
Nuthin'burger....
Interestingly, I think Yves Smith said that Ecuador was one of 3 stock markets that had positive returns for 2008.
Shhh...don't even mention that in bad recessions the market has historically hit P/Es of 8.
~~~~ gotcha ... mums the word ...
How does one say "Mission Accomplished!" in Spanish?
Long term fundamentals of Equador look strong.
Gotta say this...I cant imagine losing 50B...just cant imagine.
I'd like to have the opportunity to try to lose $50 billion.
Don't worry born & bred Ecuadorian dopes, we'll send Jas down there to help you !!!
" Canadaman writes:
.......3.......2........1..........
Moody's announcing lower Ecuador's debt rating from BBB- to D
Canadaman | 12.12.08 - 3:03 pm | # "
Doesn't it defeat the purpose of being a ratings agency if Moody's re-rates AFTER the world knows?
Can I haz bonus now?
Barley(Unrated) writes:
\tO/T
Gotta say this...I cant imagine losing 50B...just cant imagine.
\t Barley | \t \t \t \t12.12.08 - 3:15 pm | #
Fun to try though.
Barley | 12.12.08 - 3:15 pm
I don't know how he went about his life for years knowing he had lost billions of dollars...i would have had a mental breakdow
I haven't been following, but I don't understand exactly why Ecuador is defaulting at all. They have five billion in the bank. Seems political.
I think they want a mod.
What fools they are to admit the problem!
No admission, no problem. That's how it is done here in the BIG economy.
rps writes:
Domino effect......
rps | 12.12.08 - 3:03 pm | #
Jerry writes:
Why does the Ecuador president say the "debt is illegal"?
What does it mean?
Jerry | 12.12.08 - 3:13 pm | #
"Dots", please meet "connect" - the current administration in Ecuador is repudiating the debts of a previous government. While oil is lower, Ecuador at this time could still pay the bonds, so it is an elective default. The significance of the pronouncement of illegitimacy is...well someone just said they weren't going to pay their mortgage because their ex ran up the bill, but they were staying in the house...think there might be any other takers?
I don't know how he went about his life for years knowing he had lost billions of dollars...i would have had a mental breakdown
~~~
Chutzpa ...
Maybe that kind-hearted George Bush will TARP them out.
I have all my "mad money," accounts at the Bank of Ecuador, so no problemo, right?
Ian(Unrated) writes:
I don't know how he went about his life for years knowing he had lost billions of dollars...i would have had a mental breakdown
Losing 1,000,000 is hard. That's real money. Losing 50,000,000,000 is just numbers.
I don't know how he went about his life for years knowing he had lost billions of dollars...i would have had a mental breakdown
Ian
That's because you have a conscience.
"Losing 1,000,000 is hard."
Been there. Life goes on.
I could easily lose $50 billion. Lose a little in a Swiss account, a Cayman account......
For those that think that Rich is wrong about the PPT, then how do you explain the market today? Yesterday it looked like a auto deal would get brokered eventually. Today? It's looking more an more remote. Yet the market is even-to up. I'm with Rich.
When the Ecuadorean president says the debt is illegal, that means they don't want to pay it back.
then how do you explain the market today? Yesterday it looked like a auto deal would get brokered eventually. Today? It's looking more an more remote.
~~~~~
PPPT - Paulson Plunge Protection Team ...
Ecuador says "monsters" hold the bonds, and besides the previous administration made the deal.
hmmmm...yeah, that would work...
For those that think that Rich is wrong about the PPT, then how do you explain the market today? Yesterday it looked like a auto deal would get brokered eventually. Today? It's looking more an more remote. Yet the market is even-to up. I'm with Rich.
Sully
The market knows the deal will get done and it's already priced in. Heck, I won't be surprised if a deal is brokered over the weekend and the market tanks anyway.
The oil money revenue drop is intriguing.
Wonder how this will play out in potentially unstable countries that export, like Venezuela, Russia, Nigeria, Mexico, Algeria etc. Bond defaults might be the least of their problems.
[ Ecuador at this time could still pay the bonds, so it is an elective default.]
That's my impression. A "walk-away".
Sully, remember earlier in the day when folks kept saying stuff like, "the fix is in. I'm covering my shorts." Enemy meet thyself.
any one having a hard time understanding how you can lose $50 Billion should talk to my ex wife.# on request.
Well if anyone is paying this PPT they should be asking for a refund...just sayi
The PPT idea would be a more credible issue if it wasn't brought up EVERY DAY to explain both up and down market action.
maybe they can create their own mini tarp.. an el tarpo? el tarparino?
" Ian writes:
Barley | 12.12.08 - 3:15 pm
I don't know how he went about his life for years knowing he had lost billions of dollars...i would have had a mental breakdown
Ian | 12.12.08 - 3:19 pm | # "
This doesn't seem to be a problem for narcissist. Perhaps their brain chemistry is different.
""Dots", please meet "connect" - the current administration in Ecuador is repudiating the debts of a previous government. While oil is lower, Ecuador at this time could still pay the bonds, so it is an elective default. The significance of the pronouncement of illegitimacy is...well someone just said they weren't going to pay their mortgage because their ex ran up the bill, but they were staying in the house...think there might be any other takers?
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 12.12.08 - 3:20 pm | # "
That was Bush's argument why Iraq's debt didn't count anymore (post-Saddam).
The PPT idea would be a more credible issue if it wasn't brought up EVERY DAY to explain both up and down market action.
~~~~~
The Plan : Whipsaw ...
Martin had Lewis
Hardy had Laurel
Bing had Bob
And CR has... Jas.
Chaos pervades the world outside
Days off spades of hurled outcries
Gone is the fair
And Five and Dime
But he is here
He's so fine
Shhh...don't even mention that in bad recessions the market has historically hit P/Es of 8.
mmckinl | 12.12.08 - 3:18 pm | #
Actually, more like 6 in a bad one.
cd
But isn't Ecuador Too Big To Fail?
This article would have reported the Titanic disaster as; "Alternative Source Reduces Ice Sales in the Ship's Lounge." They haven't defaulted, they've repudiated. "Correa, calling the debt illegal and illegitimate, said the government will present a restructuring proposal to bondholders in coming days." It's a good thing that the theoretical idea of mortgage holders walking away is contained lest it spread to entire nations.
Hubbert(Unrated) writes:
\tThe PPT idea would be a more credible issue if it wasn't brought up EVERY DAY to explain both up and down market action.
You're right. That's why I blame God.
All is well. SPX 900 at the close. Please continue shopping. Or at least Rockin' like Dokken.
YouTube - Dokken - "Santa Claus Is Coming to Town"
Heh.
Fast forward to Sunday afternoon:
"Tarp payments authorized for bailout to auto mfgs."
Will read the headline out just before 2pm (PST) just before the asian markets open.
Market is not going to tank even if it is not done. Not until after Dec.
Ciao
MS
Gotta say this...I cant imagine losing 50B...just cant imagine.
Barley | 12.12.08 - 3:15 pm | #
If we're talking loose change, the couch would have to be the size of the Golden Gate Bridge.
How does one say "Mission Accomplished!" in Spanish?
Pondering the Mess | 12.12.08 - 3:18 pm | #
"¡Chingala a tu madre!
cd
Over the weekend there's going to be many a billionaire tossing and turning in their yacht, wondering if their best friend Ponzi de Lion was all "made up".
Hell, you never know, they may even fire a garden girl or two on Monday. Hard times!
But isn't Ecuador Too Big To Fail?
~~~
Ecuador has oil ... they are screwed ...
xxxxx writes:
This doesn't seem to be a problem for narcissist. Perhaps their brain chemistry is different.
xxxxx | 12.12.08 - 3:26 pm
What was that study that noted eerily similar personality traits between CEOs and psychopaths?
and add in that rates are going to be cut in the next week along with oil production.
Rally monkey a' comin'
Ciao
MS
That's why I blame God
I blame him, too.
But he never changes his behavior.
How does one say "Mission Accomplished!" in Spanish?
Pondering the Mess | 12.12.08 - 3:18 pm | #
Correa has a PhD in Economics from a US University. I that might 'splain some things...
cd
"The PPT idea would be a more credible issue if it wasn't brought up EVERY DAY to explain both up and down market action."
--Hubbert
No, no, you misunderstand. The PPT is both schizophrenic and manic-depressive. Thus you never know whether they will pump on behalf of the bulls or the bears. Sometime they change their
mind several times per day.
See, it all makes sense
[Enemy meet thyself.
fafhrd]
Huh? Are investing based on principles? OMG! You are going to be broke and right, maybe.
"MS writes:
Fast forward to Sunday afternoon:
"Tarp payments authorized for bailout to auto mfgs.""
Paulson reclassifies cars as banks if they have coin dispensers next to the cup holders.
MS, that's "rates".
I hate Cramer, but one thing I did like was how he kept referring to Richard Shelby as "the Senator from Toyota, I mean Alabama."
"Tarp payments authorized for bailout to auto mfgs."
I heard that this was only to keep the pension checks flowing.
The basic problem (fewer cars being sold) will not change.
"PapaSloth writes:
I hate Cramer, but one thing I did like was how he kept referring to Richard Shelby as "the Senator from Toyota, I mean Alabama.""
I thought Alabama had Nissan, Kia, and Mercedes!?
"Circling the Drain writes:
How does one say "Mission Accomplished!" in Spanish?
Pondering the Mess | 12.12.08 - 3:18 pm | #
Correa has a PhD in Economics from a US University. I that might 'splain some things..."
Luuucyyy, what have you done to the economy?
SilentThunder | 12.12.08 - 3:29 pm
Think they did that in the documentary The Coporation
Are investing based on principles?
Nah, I'm just Madding off.
Bloomberg news is trying to find out into whose pockets the Tarp money went. I applaud their efforts, but the thing that concerns me more is where those pockets then went?
Shouldn't there be American locator belts on those bundles of cash?
I think there is some insane tension in the market, just freaking titanic forces in opposition and closely balanced at the moment...but one little 'ping' or "yop" from the littlest Who in Whoville and it goes spla one way or another...
Oh and the markets are now open!
Did they forget to decouple?
Who's next?
I heard somebody on CNBC say this is not the first time Ecuador has defaulted. They also said other oil producing countries might have the same problem.
Oh, and Santa forgot to invite the Treasurys to the party...
More Americans know what time American Idol airs than where Equador is on a map. Hell, for that matter, even more ex-VP nominees.
Thanks, Sully.
The auto deal fall apart and U.S. stocks rally.
Ecuador defaults on its bonds and emerging markets rally.
Right now, emerging markets should be tanking left and right. But like SRS, EEV has become a barometer for fed liquidity. If you want to know how much liquidity the fed is pumping, watch how much SRS and EEV drop.
Ecuador is not an insignificant country. In addition to oil, they export agricultural products. They are part of Chavez' anti-U.S. socialist sphere and believe the sphere can become self-supporting, especially by cutting back oil exports to the U.S.
O/T
To to self:
Dream ideas to make me fall asleep tonight
1. Madoff managed Secretary Henry Paulson private wealth
2. Madoff managed the Bush's family financial assets.
ot-lost in shuffle is that GGP still has not re-worked 900 million due today after extension..earlier announcement was for next month debt payment...Could go bk over wknd...
Looks like the Asian markets are down 3-5%. They must have good sense.
CR - check this article out:
Jim Rogers calls most big U.S. banks bankrupt
| Reuters
How knowledgeable is this guy?
I had an Ecuadorian landscaper once.
I used to always pay him a week ahead of time, and wouldn't you know it, he took off one day and I lost out on that week's service.
They are all the same. Don't trust them with your money.
Rogers' is way ahead of the curve. You would do well to listen to him.
Ciao
MS
cd - I did read the whole article, I suspect they are going to be fine
Anonymous, Bloomberg is trying to find out where over 2 trillion has gone that has been issued by the FED. It's my understanding that is completly seperate from the TARP and in fact you can go directly to the Treasury website and see where all of the TARP funds have gone.
Now I can't even get my Detroit Free Press delivered to my house anymore??
What is this world coming to? I'm going to have spend even more time in front of this PC now.
oldy and goody.
Fiat Money Inflation in France
Andrew White
"Out of the speculating and gambling of the inflation period grew
luxury, and, out of this, corruption. It grew as naturally as a fungus on a muck heap"
"Now began to be seen more plainly some of the many ways in which an inflation policy robs the working class.
As these knots of plotting schemers at the city centers were becoming bloated with sudden wealth, the producing
classes of the country, though having in their possession more and more currency, grew lean. In the schemes and
speculations put forth by stock−jobbers and stimulated by the printing of more currency, multitudes of small
fortunes were absorbed and lost while a few swollen fortunes were rapidly aggregated in the larger cities. This
crippled a large class in the country districts, which had employed a great number of workmen."
http://66.218.69.11/search/cache?ei=UTF-8&p=white+inflation++in+france&fr=yfp-t-501&u=www.munseys.com/diskone/fiatm.pdf&w=white+inflation+inflating+france&d=Xgm64UfiR344&icp=1&.intl=us
The "A" in TARP means "asset" right? What assets will GM and Cerberus be offering?
The "A" in TARP means "asset" right?
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.12.08 - 3:41 pm | #
Nope.
A == Anything.
Ummm, Ecuador is broke and has been broke for some time.
That's why they got rid of their own currency (formerly the "Sucre"). The Sucre wouldn't hold value. So they figured, "let's use dollars! They won't depreciate so fast!"
Correct.
However, Ecuador doesn't get to print dollars. Anyone see a minor problem?
Ecuador repudiating bonds is no surprise. Heck, they repudiated their currency, sheesh.
Lender beware.
It's kind of sad, though. Really poor, really nice people, hardworking when they can...
Rob Dawg writes:
The "A" in TARP means "asset" right? What assets will GM and Cerberus be offering?
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.12.08 - 3:41 pm
Dan Quayle?
Rob Dawg writes:
The "A" in TARP means "asset" right? What assets will GM and Cerberus be offering?
Will they take a lot full of unsold Chevy Malibu's?
The "A" in TARP means "asset" right? What assets will GM and Cerberus be offering?
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.12.08 - 3:41 pm | #
Hot Air. It's not worth much....
If it were not troubled it would be an asset. It's "asses" at this point.
Ciao
MS
That'll be the US in the not too distant future. It's as broke as anyone else, if not more so.
Could someone please explain the difference between Madoff, who knew his house of cards could not be sustained and would fall as soon as the bubble burst, and the dozens-hundreds-thousands of financial executives/policymakers who knew that their house of cards could not be sustained and would fall as soon as the bubble burst?
How come only Madoff gets served with a criminal complaint? How come we keep electing the same policy makers?
Born-and-bred dopes can't be the answer, can it?
@rationaljeff...thanks for that
2 Trillion on top of the TARP? HS Batman! I'll have to go back and read that.
I'm not a racist! My maid is from Ecuador!
If they cant afford food then have them eat cake for God's sake.
And have them appoint an Oil Czar.
Very simply put: Madoff is not a very good liar. the others are better than him...just.
Ciao
MS
madoff had heard of ponzi, apparently
So if Ecuador had a FICO score, it would have dropped to under 700 after this stunt?
Well with that forecast at the end, given the track record of Wall St economists I'd say we are f'n guaranteed of a default cartel,"ODREC", the Organization of Debt REpudiating Countries.
Ecuador defaults, says to fight "monster" creditors
GUAYAQUIL, Ecuador (Reuters) Leftist President Rafael Correa defaulted on Ecuador's foreign debt on Friday, vowing to fight "monster" bond-holders in court in one of most aggressive moves against investors in the region for years.
Ecuador's debt prices immediately plunged on news of the country's second default in a decade and the first in Latin America since Argentina in 2002.
Correa, a U.S.-trained economist and ally of anti-U.S. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, refused to make a $31 million interest payment due on Monday on 2012 global bonds, saying the debt was contracted illegally by a previous administration.
"I gave the order not to pay the interest and to go into default," Correa said. "We know very well who we are up against -- real monsters."
[snip]
But the move is not expected to have a knock-on effect in other Latin American countries' debt policies even if some, such as Venezuela, have pledged to investigate any irregularities in their own debt, economists say.
[snip]
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
The Treasury TARP site only shows funds distributed, not assets collected. What they traded the money for is important in judging if that money is ever coming back.
Preferred stock with warrants seems to be the theme. Great how if they go BK there is limited recovery. The TARP program has MAD aspects. Let the banks fail and everything fails.
http://www.ustreas.gov/initiatives/eesa/docs/CPPTransaction%20ReportDec%209.pdf
Steven writes:
So if Ecuador had a FICO score, it would have dropped to under 700 after this stunt?
Steven | 12.12.08 - 3:45 pm
Just barely but they're now in debt counseling and have received two additional credit card offers in the mail today...
How come only Madoff gets served with a criminal complaint?
Someone checked the campaign contributions yesterday; evidently, he didn't give to the right people.
You know how much prosecutorial discretion is worth? You don't just give them away for free...
Steven writes:
So if Ecuador had a FICO score, it would have dropped to under 700 after this stunt?
Steven | 12.12.08 - 3:45 pm | #
It was always below 700.
The "A" in TARP means "asset" right?
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.12.08 - 3:41 pm | #
No, it was a typo. It's supposed to be "Asses"
cd
It's a great time to buy a vacation home in Ecuador. That's what they said on House Hunters International
Like any good Ponzi player, holding the house of cards together is the entire art. Must hold up markets, until the superinflation takes hold! Monetary policy will make all well.
No foreign enemy ever so erosive of the US Republic as unelected Central Bankers and counterfeiters. Specially polished confidence men and sociopathic liars. Really, its in the job description.
US has a naval base in Ecuador. Getting kicked out next year.
Is Bush still pushing his Latin America "free trade" thing?
Steven writes:
So if Ecuador had a FICO score, it would have dropped to under 700 after this stunt?
They can still apply for a no-doc loan with Countrywide. More than happy to help out a borrower in need.
barley,
I just wonder for how long...will we be bailing out malls, hotels, apartment owners and retail strip malls too?
Rich is correct above-the big boys have figured out how to beat up retail investor playing with double shorts...
no deal but +68 is darn right hilarious in the wake of all the bad news this week......
Gotta say this...I cant imagine losing 50B...just cant imagine.
I cant even grok one billion my mind just defaults to a lot.
Kevin writes:
Using a combination of crystal meth and roulette, you could easily blow through that kind of money in less than a year.
Not sure about that. Typical host edge in roulette is 5.26%. Even putting down $1000 bets would take 950,570,342 spins of the wheel to attrit $50B. At two minutes/spin and working 24x7 that would require over 3000 years..
irreverent writes:
US has a naval base in Ecuador. Getting kicked out next year.
Who's kicking our Navy out of anywhere?
The ships are still armed, aren't they?
Interesting behavioral data on bubbles and their inevitability when change is introduced:
The Atlantic Online | December 2008 | Pop Psychology | Virginia Postrel
How come only Madoff gets served with a criminal complaint?
If you take money from investor B and give it to investor A and pretend it is a "profit" then that is a Ponzi scheme. That is apparently what Madoff did. If you take money from investor B and give it to a Managing Director as a bonus and pretend he earned it, it is not a Ponzi scheme. That is what the rest of Wall Street does. Oh, and they take investor A's money, too. Just to be fair.
Bush is dabbling in lines and jello shots again, so yes, his pusher is into free trade with Latin America
"Rhetorical Questioner writes:
Could someone please explain the difference between Madoff, who knew his house of cards could not be sustained and would fall as soon as the bubble burst, and the dozens-hundreds-thousands of financial executives/policymakers who knew that their house of cards could not be sustained and would fall as soon as the bubble burst?.....
Born-and-bred dopes can't be the answer, can it?"
The financial world is full of folks with overblown egos and good connections; smarts don't seem to be a prerequisite. One guys finds a way too "add value", i.e. take a cut while moving someone else's money around, and a bunch of me-too imitators jump in and try to replicate his deeds. Unfortunately, as good investment opportunities dry up, folks seem to have taken to adding leverage to maintain or improve margins, and don't seem to notice the increased risk, since it worked before....
Bush bought 98,840 acres in Paraguay in 2007, near the Bolivian/Brazilian border.
That's not looking like a good investment at the moment.
rationaljeff writes:
Anonymous, Bloomberg is trying to find out where over 2 trillion has gone that has been issued by the FED. It's my understanding that is completly seperate from the TARP and in fact you can go directly to the Treasury website and see where all of the TARP funds have gone.
Wish the site would disclose where the bbbanks put the TARP funds....Ya right
mission accomplished = yo termino, esta bien (or close enuf)
Just put it all on the Cubs to win the series in 2009. $50 billion, gone in an instant.
@GM Bush bought 98,840 acres in Paraguay in 2007, near the Bolivian/Brazilian border.
That's not looking like a good investment at the moment.
It's not? Why not?
yancey-excellent!
check out "Cassandra Does Tokyo" blog, Bernie Comes Out of the Closet, for a street take on the lad and his hi-jinks
Someone posted a link to a chart in the past few weeks that showed price/bbl required by different OPEC countries. Anyone know where to find that?
Just put it all on the Cubs to win the series in 2009. $50 billion, gone in an instant.
Yancey Ward | 12.12.08 - 3:54 pm | #
1) Fuck the cubs. (Blago's wife).
2) Why limit it to 2009?
Yancey Ward writes:
Just put it all on the Cubs to win the series in 2009. $50 billion, gone in an instant.
Still safer than the NY Met's
It's a great time to buy or sell a post apocalyptic bolt hole.
" GM writes:
Bush bought 98,840 acres in Paraguay in 2007, near the Bolivian/Brazilian border.
That's not looking like a good investment at the moment.
GM | 12.12.08 - 3:53 pm | # "
That depends; what are their extradition laws like in Paraguay?
heads up isaac | 12.12.08 - 3:56 pm | #
Don't have the link, but hands down the country in the deepest sh!t over prices is Venezuela...
Brevard County mall report; some shoppers, carrying some bags.
I did my best to keep Barnes & Noble in business. There was briefly a small line there.
Some years ago, actually, some decades ago, had to keep track when you're old, someone told me there were 5 millionaires in
Equador. She was a kid rehab person and was working with the kid on one of them.
Doubt if much has changed.
trivia fact: when marie antoinette said "let them eat cake" the word cake in french means the leftover burnt crap in the oven after making bread. it's not as quaint a saying when you know that little nugget of info.
friends tell me i know very much about things that matter very little.
GM writes:
Bush bought 98,840 acres in Paraguay in 2007, near the Bolivian/Brazilian border
I disagree.
He paid 1.2M and now it is in the national interest as a war footing. So he is going to re-sell to Amerika for 67B
Unfortunately, as good investment opportunities dry up, folks seem to have taken to adding leverage to maintain or improve margins, and don't seem to notice the increased risk, since it worked before....
xxxx,
You do realize, this is the crux of the entire financial blow up? A giant pool of liquidity went looking for good investments with low risk and high returns. They didn't exist. They can't exist in an economy where workers don't get paid. So con artists made them up.
I would have guessed Norway would be deep shit. Their exports are energy, fish, financials. Oh, and it's colder than shit there most of the time.
Is Madoff like Rant off?
Barley - Ponies? We don't need no stinkin' ponies.
Broward - you ever hear of this guy? Jon Kleinberg (PDF alert).
He's the guy who developed rgw "Hyperlink-Induced Topic Search" algorithm - making web searching easier. He's presently "working on how word-of-mouth phenomena f...low through groups of people." (from Discover magazine).
Seems apropos of your meme studies.
Venezuela...
citizen energyecon
Ditto this. Wacko Pres with lots of military stuff.
Failure of the Colombian free trade pact.
Increased anti Americanism throughout SA.
Increased socialist government movements.
Failed economies in SA.
Long simmering feud with Peru is heating up.
Welp, Ecuador is subprime now!
i'm glad someone mentioned margins. corporate profit margins were at an all time high (9-10%) before this mess started. it's a very mean reverting series (average about 5%). So getting back to average will have a huge neg impact on short term EPS growth. gone are the days of cheap debt in the cap structure to lower cost of capital and boost margins.
SRS getting clobbered again today. Buying more here.
My question is when is Mexico going to default? Oil and commodity prices hammered. Remissions way down. Exports starting to drop. Narcos butchering people here and there and leaving heads in schoolyards. I see nothing good about that country for 09. I guess you could say that about any developing economy. Are they not all essentially bubble economies, in that without fake credit and US over- consumption, they have had no real growth over the past 15 years?
And, as some mentioned above, I don't think the US wants or needs any kind of annexation plan for Mexico. Anyone who thinks that might happen hasn't spent enough quality time south of the border. That country is an institutional mess, and their oligarchs are more than happy to sell whatever is needed to the US or whomever. Why would the US need or want to absorb Mexico?
" Markel writes:
Unfortunately, as good investment opportunities dry up, folks seem to have taken to adding leverage to maintain or improve margins, and don't seem to notice the increased risk, since it worked before....
xxxx,
You do realize, this is the crux of the entire financial blow up? A giant pool of liquidity went looking for good investments with low risk and high returns. They didn't exist. They can't exist in an economy where workers don't get paid. So con artists made them up.
Markel | 12.12.08 - 3:59 pm | # "
Yes; I do realize that. That was sort'a my point. Guess I should've added a "/snark" or something for those who are humour challenged.
Mannwich is brave.
SRS today, went from 105 to $77. That is just a magnificent spectacle.
Just a small amount but I have been slowly adding my position. I will be patient. This one will payoff in Feb/March timeframe, maybe sooner.
Madoff was sucha looooooser. I mean look at all that TARP money that's gone to waste. Tic, tic, tic,....should have converted to a bank and call Hank.
Hanky...I have a problem.......
@GM
Long simmering feud with Peru is heating up.
Between Peru & Paraguay?
You're out of your mind.
mmckinl, Cali is a city in Columbia.
little pumpage last couple of minutes, almost thought it would close within 10 points of open
somebody wanted to be long over the weekend
Bob Pisani just told Senator Reid that he was terrible at predicting the stock market.
I agree with Bob.
South American countries have feuds!!!
Couldn't resist. SRS in the $70s. That ETF is one wild ride.
Watch out w/ holding Proshares for long periods of time. Look at EEV - despite EEM down over 50% from last May, EEV made a new low from its May low. So it's been a total waste despite a correct assessment of EEM.
I don't usually hold ETF's for more than days/weeks at a time.....
Played SRS on the last run from high 70's up to 260 or so, selling here and there up to 260.
Back in again because there's no way Commercial Real Estate isn't going to get crushed next year......
Peru is a long way overland from Paraguay, and Paraguay is land locked.
They couldn't feud if they wanted to.
And they don't want to.
Now Chile & Peru, or Paraguay & Bolivia, or Bolivia & Chile, or Paraguay & Argentina, those are different stories.
Between Peru & Paraguay?
You're out of your mind.
Anonymous | 12.12.08 - 4:06 pm | #
Whoops. I was reading about Ecuador's history and current events when I wrote my list. Ecuador has a long simmering border dispute with Peru.
"Kevin writes:
Using a combination of crystal meth and roulette, you could easily blow through that kind of money in less than a year.
Not sure about that. Typical host edge in roulette is 5.26%. Even putting down $1000 bets would take 950,570,342 spins of the wheel to attrit $50B. At two minutes/spin and working 24x7 that would require over 3000 years.."
You've obviously never visited the Federal Reserve Casino. No limit betting.
50B on Black baby!
And I bet all the whales gambling there are Asian.
aye carumba!
SRS all time high ($295.72) Nov. 21, 2008
All time low ($65.01) September 19, 2008
Euphoria and despair cobbled together by time (of short duration)
Stay away from those leveraged ETS's better to short the Indexes. Those things always underperform their benchmarks. Day trading instruments and nothing more...
wow anonymouse...i had not looked at that for awhile.
talk about tracking error...
Dropped 144 dollars for Dinner for 2 plus tax and tip. Place was half filled compared to summer. Still doing well though. Back to Jack in the box this week...
Shillariffous
Watch out w/ holding Proshares for long periods of time. Look at EEV - despite EEM down over 50% from last May, EEV made a new low from its May low. So it's been a total waste despite a correct assessment of EEM.
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse | Homepage | 12.12.08 - 4:08 pm | #
2x ETFs are compounding the logrithmic derivatives of the underlying security, and are not a bet on the actual level of the security.
Said differently, it's purely a directional bet. Each day that you are wrong on the direction costs you money.
Absolutely no tracking error with SRS. It's 2x inverse the DAILY move. So you can get big slippage.
On the other hand I've held through lots of slippage and still made a pretty penny.
You need to be able to handle the volatility.
So, instead of our Friday Bank Failure, we get a Friday Country Failure?
Will this become a regular feature? Maybe Thailand, Argentina, or Russia in future months?
Don't know if the stories about Bush buying land in Paraguay are true, but if true, it is odd...
The Paraguay-Bolivia border is very remote. Far from the ocean, and overland access is difficult and sparse....
You can be wrong for a LONG time with SRS and SKF and easily make it up and more in 3-4 days.
re: etf's
imho, your'e much better off, once you decide on the direction, looking at the components of the etf and taking the appropriate action on the strongest (if you're a long) or weakest (if you're a short).
and if you're a real adrenaline junkie, you could substitue put/call options for being short/long.
JP and POIC, thanks.
[Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
Watch out w/ holding Proshares for long periods of time]
Oh, I know. Believe me. I've had that exchange with rich for over a year. The Ultra positions get clobbered over time. I use them strictly as a trading instrument, not to build LT positions...
Anonymous writes:
Don't know if the stories about Bush buying land in Paraguay are true, but if true, it is odd...
The Paraguay-Bolivia border is very remote. Far from the ocean, and overland access is difficult and sparse....
Sounds like a great place to build a bunker for riding out the world chaos that is coming.
~~~
If the inverse ETFs don't payoff by the time DOW hits 6500 in the next few months, then I would avoid them.
Absolutely no tracking error with SRS. It's 2x inverse the DAILY move. So you can get big slippage.
Pissed Off In California | 12.12.08 - 4:17 pm | #
Yes. People keep trying to compare the price of the 2x ETFs with their underlying security. That is just wrong wrong wrong.
It is not the same as options, which are priced against the underlying security.
Pissed I bought SRs the week it came out and I have rode it to 150 Oct 08 or so...Took a good year. Good for swing trades horrible for holding. Could have shorted the IYR and done just as well w/o the volatility.
.
On the other hand I've held through lots of slippage and still made a pretty penny.
You need to be able to handle the volatility.
This pretty much sums up how to use SRS successfully.
xxxx, no need to snip. I was actually being nice. I liked the way you summed it all up in so few words.
"Six decades of single-party rule in Paraguay came to an end on Sunday after Colorado Party candidate Blanca Ovelar conceded a loss to former Catholic bishop Fernando Lugo, who claimed the historic win on his promise to help the poor."
Former bishop claims Paraguay election - CNN.com
Help the poor. That isn't a Bush friendly attitude. April 2008
mission accomplished = "ya me lo chingé"
at least in Mexico, The rest of the Spanish speaking world doesn't use the verb "chingar", unfortunately. It´s really a very flexible and useful word in many situations.
Leveraged ETFs: Buy-N-Holders Beware… These Are For Active Traders | ETF Expert
GM writes:
"Six decades of single-party rule in Paraguay came to an end on Sunday after Colorado Party candidate Blanca Ovelar conceded a loss to former Catholic bishop Fernando Lugo, who claimed the historic win on his promise to help the poor."
Help the poor to do what? Take more of our money? No thanks.
I spit on the poor when I see them in the streets.
his promise to help the poor
Oh, they're all compassionate conservatives... Really, all of them.
Pissed Off In California,
I'm just a little worried about the effects of volatility on the SRS...
By my calculations, you can lose money even as the underlying index goes down 50%...if it goes down -5%, then up 4%, all the way down.
No debts left unrepudiated.
Poor describes us and our country. Debt is not wealth.
SRS
this whole setup reminds me of TWM and some other etf's (Rich might have a good take on this)last year...take it down, buy lots of shares as it's going down, run up reits, hb builders one more time while shorting srs, then reverse it make killing when it hits 300 next year...
4 trades in every reversal...
re: Paraguay
It doesn't have a current extradition treaty with anyone major because it's not in the league of nations.
That "may" change soon...however I'm sure it will be grandfathered to exclude certain large landowners....
Ciao
MS
@Yancy Ward...
heh... we should all "lose" 50 billion like that, huh?!
re: inverse ETFs.
For a doofus like me who's horrible at timing but pretty good at picking up longer term trends they work quite well.
There's no way I want to start learning how to trade options in this type of market and I also don't have the time/skill to quickly swing trade.
I've found that as long as you get in close to the lower end of the downward swings in SRS/SKF. Say 110 or lower and average down you're in a good position to make 20%++ as long as you are willing to hold through some major pain.
I only put in what I'm willing to lose and I'm trading based on the expectation that CRE will get crushed further going forward and the market will have atleast one more major down leg.
I've noticed that last 3 moves on SKF/SRS have involved a final 3-4 day massive upswing after 1 or more months of slippage.
Frankly I feel much better holding SRS/SKF long term then QID, SDS etc.. as the upswings are so violent when they come.
really...why else would Bush want to live in a place where Mengele, Barbie and Eichmann (plus half the "upper management" of the Nazi party)...
I'm sure it's all just a coincidence though...
Ciao
MS
US has military base in Bolivia with large airfield in the remote border regio
TCA writes:
For those that think that Rich is wrong about the PPT, then how do you explain the market today? Yesterday it looked like a auto deal would get brokered eventually. Today? It's looking more an more remote. Yet the market is even-to up. I'm with Rich.
Sully
Perhaps, like me, people belived that the deal would ultimatly have no impact on GM/Chry. ablity to avoid bankrupcy anyway. It'll just effect who gets to feed on the carcass.
zair are no natzeez in paraguay, vy are you azking such a kvestion?
Pissed,
You actually have to think like a long on a etf short....tight stops and all..if you average in as stated...you can win...
Correa did the right thing. Previous admin. talked down the viability of re-payment, then bought in heavy at high yeilds. IMF, Wall St. and rating agencies were in on it. Criminal behavior by the elite. Fuck them.
USAF base in Manta, Ecuador will become an intl. airport and shipping hub for S.A. Funded by the Chinese, quid pro quo for energy and mineral deals for export. China is also building a refinery near Manta for S.A. heavy crude.
Correa is ahead of the curve. American style free market, de-regulated capitalism is dead. Neo-socialism is the next prevailing political idealogy.
Pumping my own book. I've bought coastal property in Ecuador and moving there next year. Prices are cheap, people are friendly and the woman are beautiful. I'm looking forward to fading away.
Pray for social stability in China then...and good luck. Do they drink pisco sours in Ecuador?
cd,
I gave up trying to use stops on SRS. Intra-day swings can be massive.
This last round I started buying @ 115 and every $10 drop since then. Bought my last batch right before close @ 77.25
In the last 3 days I've gone from 20% down to break even back to 20% down.
Yes Virginia ... there is no collateral.
LAM writes:
rationaljeff writes:
Anonymous, Bloomberg is trying to find out where over 2 trillion has gone
I think shorting the Ultra funds is a better strategy especially in a range bound market.
If you are not convinced look at what DUG has done.
Some fodder for SRS discusson:
Continued widening credit spreads within the commercial real estate debt markets may have adverse implications for the interest coverage ratios of U.S. equity real estate investment trusts (REITs), according to Fitch Ratings in a new report.
SRS shorts a big chunk of public storage, for one storage REIT it is not good news on the divvy front.
U-Store-It Trust , a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust focused on self-storage facilities, announced today that its Board of Trustees declared a quarterly dividend of $0.025 per common share for the period ending December 31, 2008. The dividend is payable on January 22, 2009 to common shareholders of record on January 7, 2009. The quarterly distribution represents an annualized dividend rate of $0.10 per share compared with the previous annualized dividend rate of $0.72 per share. The reduced distribution rate is expected to result in additional cash flow for the Company of approximately $39 million on an annual basis, which will be used to repay outstanding indebtedness and increase financial flexibility.
Pray for social stability in China then...and good luck. Do they drink pisco sours in Ecuador?
citizen energyecon
They do but, Pisco sours are more Peruvian I believe. Cerveza. Thanks
cd - can I get that auto production file from the earlier thread? I would appreciate it. Thx. peakvt @ yahoo dot com
PS: graph of sales: Picasa Web Albums - PeakVT
Serf #1 writes:
I think shorting the Ultra funds is a better strategy especially in a range bound market.
Seconded. Was going to mention that. Only trouble might be if your broker can't borrow enough shares.
Looks like Hugo Chavez might not be too happy about Ecuador's bond default:
Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Ecuador President Rafael Correa's looming default on $510 million of bonds may hurt his biggest ally, Venezuela President Hugo Chavez, more than anyone else.
Ecuador, hamstrung by a tumble in oil, its biggest export, said last week it will use a 30-day grace period to decide whether to make a $30 million interest payment that came due Nov. 15. Chavez's government owns structured notes tied to Ecuador's bonds that would force Venezuela to pay $400 million if Correa doesn't make the payment, according to estimates by Barclays Capital Inc.
And what makes you think Hugo might not pull the same dodge? Especially with some arm waving of the 'legitimacy' of the debt and a little domestic red meat where he is telling the Yanquis to shove it...
Buenos Aires, Oct 13 (Prensa Latina) An Argentine official regarded the intention of the George W. Bush family to settle on the Acuifero Guarani (Paraguay) as surprising, besides being a bad signal for the governments of the region.
Luis D Elia, undersecretary for the Social Habitat in the Argentine Federal Planning Ministry, issued a memo partially reproduced by digital INFOBAE.com, in which he spoke of the purchase by Bush of a 98,842-acre farm in northern Paraguay, between Brazil and Bolivia.
The news circulated Thursday in non-official sources in Asuncion, Paraguay.
D Elia considered this Bush step counterproductive for the regional power expressed by Presidents Nestor Kirchner, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Evo Morales, Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro.
He said that "it is a bad signal that the Bush family is doing business with natural resources linked to the future of MERCOSUR."
"The Guaraní Aquifer...is one of the world's largest aquifer systems...It is said that this
vast underground reservoir could suppy fresh drinking water to the world for 200 years."
The Reverend Moon has purchased 1,482,600 acres in Chaco, Paraguay."
I always thought the Bush's liked knee bending and hand-holding with the Prince Saudis. And Dubai would be the destination.
From Pimpinturtle.com. "Oh, and both the Moonie and Bush land is located at what Paraguays drug czar
called an enormously strategic point in both the narcotics and arms trades.
And it sits atop the one of the worlds largest fresh-water aquifers."
Iceland, Ecuador, Hungary, soon Russia. Wow, things are getting messy.