Although Hyman is forecasting a 4% U.S. GDP decline in Q1 2009, he thinks the economy will probably bottom mid-year 2009 (based on a substantial stimulus package from Obama)
A Federal stimulus can shorten the depth and length of a recession? If it doesn't work do we get another administration?
A country such as China with its capability with long range NBC weapons and a large poor population is something to worry about. Its history of fragmentation and warlordism is another worry. Worry Worry Worry
Sorry, We’re Booked, White House Tells Obamas - The Caucus Blog - NYTimes.com
Sorry, Were Booked, White House Tells Obamas
(One would think given security considerations for the first Black president of the U.S. they would make every effort to accomodate the new president and his family. Gracious, historic and admired Texas hospitality gets lost in DC.)
Deadthreaded-still OT:
matty writes:
OT- Report from the field.
Re: Currencies.
Recieved a newsletter from my main supplier via snail mail today. One item read: "Although (the manufacturer)(UK) has sent their 2009 price increases, the gain in value of the USD has been significant enough to permit substantial reductions in malt extract pricing for'09, as long as the current strength of the dollar holds. All are being reduced by 15-20%!" I guess the question is: Will it last?
matty | 12.12.08 - 2:50 pm | #
Obama can be as stimulating as he wants; the economy's not going to go reverse direction from -6 percent in a mere two quarters. Even if money starts coming in, it's going to be very difficult to get people to do anything but stash the extra cash for a good while. The fear has to leave first.
Why should individuals behave any differently than the banks have with the TARP money?
A country such as China with its capability with long range NBC weapons and a large poor population is something to worry about. Its history of fragmentation and warlordism is another worry. Worry Worry Worry
But have you seen their teeth in China? For a country of people that just eats rice and plants, they all seem to have rotten teeth.
A country such as China with its capability with long range NBC weapons and a large poor population is something to worry about. Its history of fragmentation and warlordism is another worry. Worry Worry Worry dilbert dogbert | 12.12.08 - 4:27 pm | #
Nah, not if you live in the West. They could invade Pakistan or something though.
The Christmas parties I've been going to feel like funerals. I'm thinking about not going to anymore this year, but I get depressed for other people. So many people are absolutely screwed. It is awful.
GM announcement 250K less units 1st/qtr 2009 appx. 1/3 cut. Many US plants to be shutdown for month of Jan. Wonder how this will play with TARP? and the suppliers......
Everytime I see stuff like this it just makes me queasy:
"(based on a substantial stimulus package from Obama),"
Not in a "government can't do anything for the economy" way, or a "debt on the children" way, but in a way I think is even worse.
I know you give a sick patient medicine to make him better, so I am certainly not siding with the "let the free market work it out" people.
But we've been "stimulating" this economy, at least in the way our mainstream economics understands simulation, for how many years now? Low interest rates, tax cuts, deficit spending, direct cash injections... the low interest rates go back to late 90's with Greenspan going to what we thought was the absurdly low 4%, LTCM was bailed out, and the deficits have been with us forever.
I'm starting to wonder if this is a dead parrot. At a minimum it is resembling a goddam episode of "House", whose plot is always the patient is diagnosed, treated, everybody congratulates themselves on an apprarent recovery and then the poor sucker crashes again.
Sorry for the rant. I guess the short post would have been "if conventional economic stimulus has failed to work over and over and over again, how can you with a straight face predict a recovery based on more of the same?"
"the economy will probably bottom mid-year 2009 (based on a substantial stimulus package from Obama)"
That seems a tad optimistic. Paul Krugman reckons any fiscal stimulus takes "8 months to kick in (and that's being optimistic)" (Nosedive - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com.
On topic, I think the China forecast is going to be on target, and potentially optimistic if civil unrest occurs in China. If things break that way, it seems there would be some issues with their Treasury purchases...
REBear wrote:
What happens after the stimulus runs out?
To continue with your thought REBear...AND...after trying to soak up the worlds entire savings for the year, we have to RAISE interest rates and pull the puchbowl (i.e., liquidity) or go into the mother of all inflations. What does Mr. Market think of raising interest rates in a deflation?
People were buying long bonds in the early 70s too, bless their altruistic hearts. We remember trading some of those bonds in the mid-eighties. They had absurdly tiny coupons and traded at such deep discounts to par that they were the object of ridicule.
But short the long bond at your peril! Bwahahahaha The Shadow Gold Price | The Big Picture
perhaps some economist will help me with this- seriously. If consumers take their savings rate back to 8% and the MEW declines to zero that totals to about 10% of consumer spending- and since consumers drive everything 10% in GDP (ignoring exports and inventories)
Trend growth rate about 2.5% (what we used to think before we got involved in hocus pocus). Therefore don't we need essentially a 5% down GDP for one year plus 0% for another to get "recaliberated". A stimulus program boosts spending but when it goes away it takes it away.
I hate that show and I also watch it religiously. I actually tell myself it's because of the hot bi doctor -- because I actually find that less shameful than the fact that the same stupid thing happens every week and I still manage to get drawn into watching it unfold.
Stimulus means we water down your purchasing power now, add to debt that impairs all future income streams, and incrementally impoverish you. But you can buy an LCD and lattes all day today and feel better.
If things break that way, it seems there would be some issues with their Treasury purchases... citizen energyecon | Homepage | 12.12.08 - 4:35 pm | # That would be a super fun ride!
The idea that we could get news on the same day that 1) the U.S. domestic auto industry is definitely heading for a severe contraction in 2009; and 2) the U.S. recession will bottom in the second quarter...
is just pretty frickin insane.
WHERE ARE ALL THESE PEOPLE GONNA WORK?
For Obama? Nobody can create new jobs by snapping their fingers. It takes massive amounts of govt. stimulus and a lot of time.
Remember last year everyone thought GS was invincible because of all their 'clever' moves. Reality caught up. If not for Hank they would have been spanked by now.
Yes another Georgian Bank. Have people been pulling their money out in fear of another Russian invasion?
Assume Crash Positions! | Homepage | 12.12.08 - 4:33 pm | #
"We are all Georgian's now'
- John 'Disconected' McCai
-G.M., many plants will close for about a month in one of the broadest shutdowns in the automakers history. The closures will occur at various times during the quarter, though some will extend the annual Christmas holiday through January.
-Local 276 in Arlington, Tex., told members that they would be off work from Dec. 23 until Jan. 20
Mr Madoff might consider laying very low. Apparently some Russians invested in this ponzi scheme, unknowingly. They are not know to be very diplomatic when it comes to being looted.
Stop worrying so much about China.
They will be fine.
They were not the ones that caused the Global financial collapse by spreading their toxic assets around the world.
Their economic team is not dopes like the US nor are the Chinese consumers dopes like the US
Everything is bought in cash with hardly any use of credit cards.
The Chinese also save about 40% of their income.
The fat cat americans have been living of the savings of the Chinese.
The Chinese are patient but they want their money back in full
You know whats amusing? Earlier this year a couple of Chinese guys ran up a Ponzi scheme involving ants (true story!) and bilked some hundreds of thousands of folks in China out of 1.2 billion USD. This resulted in thousands rioting in the streets and not coincidentally a bullet to the head for the thieving schmuck.
I can't but help notice the difference in America where some even greater asshole bilks investors out of 50 billion dollars and all we are seeing are tut-tuts on the internet while the criminal in question earns a 20 year sentence to club Fed, oh and a small fine that is only a fraction of his thievery.
Do Americans have that much of a stiff upper lip and bourgeois attitude that they deem it too unseemly to raise hell? Or perhaps Americans are simply too fat and lazy to riot. It's absolutely puzzling that in a nation where the police have the right to beat the living crap out of you, that people will still take to the streets to demand their rights. While in a nation that is ostensibly free, John Q. public acts like a bunch of anesthetized sheep and will bitch and moan but not act.
Honestly, I think the Chinese government lives in mortal fear of it's citizenry, and it is this healthy fear which teaches them that there is a limit to how far the people are willing to take it. I don't think American politicians fear the American people one bit, and it shows. From the ritualized Congressional theater broadcast on C-SPAN to the absolute contempt that the executives at AIG and other financial institutions have for the taxpayer, America's elites just don't seem to give a shit elected or not. As things stand now, Wall Street will still get their cake, divy it up, and eat it too. They may not be so nonchalant should they wake up one morning to find thousands of angry proles outside their offices threatening to burn it down.
Didn't President Bush have a big stimulus program where he sent everyone checks and that was going to drive the 500,000 new jobs and second half recovery in 2008?
"Didn't President Bush have a big stimulus program where he sent everyone checks and that was going to drive the 500,000 new jobs and second half recovery in 2008?"
I have no recollection of that. No one sent me a check.
Madoff's alleged $50 billion fraud hits other investors
[snip]
"Madoff's investors included captains of industry, corporations -- some of which are publicly traded -- that used Madoff almost as a high-yielding cash management account, endowments, universities, foundations and, importantly, many high-profile funds of funds," said Douglas Kass, who heads hedge fund Seabreeze Partners Management.
"It appears that at least $15 billion of wealth, much of which was concentrated in Southern Florida and New York City, has gone to 'money heaven,'" he said.
[snip]
The dividing line between civilization and barbarity is one meal. Judging from our waistlines, I had assumed we would already be getting a case of the munchies but apparently not.
"based on a substantial stimulus package from Obama"
Right. The substantial stimulus packages from Bennie were different. And from Hank. And from governments in countries around the world. But the one from BOb will be different; it will be effective.
those who are predicting a China breakdown will be disappointed again, like they have been for the last decades. The chinese are doing much better than you think.
"(based on a substantial stimulus package from Obama),"
Isn't most of Obamam's stimulus based on infrastructure upgrades? Most of the infrastructure building & updating that's been proposed will take a good year (at least) to get money into the economy.
Though, I think it is preferable to invest in infrastructure (and green energy ) compared to just handing out checks to everybody...
It's quite likely China could have an internal coup. A lot of conflicting statements coming out of the government recently, which is unusual.
China is mainly different in that they don't view the government as the embodiment of their culture. Our culture is based around the Constitution and our 'democratic' government. They are much more comfortable with changing governments than us, because the CCP does not represent China.
By the way, like 40% of the country makes 2$ a day or less.
Madoff apparently made off with 50 bil. Yeah, that's funny. Name makes the man. Like Liesman or Blagojevich, Goldsacsman, Lehman (lemon), Bernanke (Burn an kill) the dollar.
comes the 2nd half no one will want to go to, or live in cities. streets will be rife with protesters, vagrants (former auto workers, and workers of all stripes), pick pockets and others driven to a life of crime by hard times. food will be scarce and no one will take the funny money let alone plastic. the authorites will be overwhelmed by the speed of social disintegration. vigilante forces will form and justice meeted out ala dirty harry. we will look back at the good ol' days of the here and now and weep for the illusion the fiat magicans worked for so long but ultimately ran out of rabbits. who will cry for us america? no one in the rest of the world i'm afraid as they'll be crying in their own soup lines and blaming US. be afraid be very afraid.
The military-industrial complex is taking the USA down the same path and increasingly the same valleys in Afghanistan as the old Soviet Union but...wait a minute...LOOK OVER HERE! China is collapsing! Negative growth! Risk of social unrest (think: that Tiananmen Square tank guy).
A bit off topic. Our system was designed for stability and continuity not for responsiveness to the people.
That's why we have the senate which is essentially an old boys club and the filisbuster. The senate is redundant, we should abolish it. Or at the very least get rid of the filisbuster. Another institution which needs to go is the electoral college.
But first we have a recession/depression to survive.
No, no, no and no. China's exports are actually doing o.k. Inflation's come down a bit and that's made the gov't more comfortable about priming the pump. No way they're going into negative territory.
The stock market at bottom already? Fat chance. There's a lot still to be unwound between now and New Year's
Ed lost his touch this decade. As did the guy he hired Francois Trahan. They never saw any of the credit problems coming. And what you see happen to forecasters is that when they start to make a series of bad calls after years of making very good calls, is that they start to shorten up their timeframes and they wind up forecasting the present into the future. So whereas before they were very good at making trend change calls, when their record hits the ditch, then they start making the same call as everyone else. Which is an extension of present trends.
I have no idea if Ed will be correct on any of these calls. It's hit or miss at this point with ISI, which I must say has a number of really poor forecasters now, especially in energy.
Replace every instance of "China" with "USA", and you also get a true statement. America's NBC capability is unparalleled in the world, it also has a large, poor (and ignorant) population, and its first 100 years up to the Civil War (indeed, nearly half of its history) had its fair share of militants, mutinies, and malcontents. Be very careful when you choose to judge others, lest you find yourself judged by the same standard.
dilbert dogbert writes:
A country such as China with its capability with long range NBC weapons and a large poor population is something to worry about. Its history of fragmentation and warlordism is another worry. Worry Worry Worry
dilbert dogbert | 12.12.08 - 4:27 pm | #
Does he mean the true numbers, or the Chinese gov't numbers?
China next to riot!
Ditto Nemo's comment for the US GDP.
Does he mean the true numbers, or the U.S. gov't numbers?
FXP anyone?
We're all China now?
TAKE THE MARKET ON THAT.
I'm handing out rice bowls for gifts this Christmas.
Shoulda crossed the Yalu when we had the chance.
Oh great here comes civil unrest in China. Who will make my lead toys now?
GMAC decision due at 2:00 pst...if not a bank, hundreds of dealers go bye bye...
Although Hyman is forecasting a 4% U.S. GDP decline in Q1 2009, he thinks the economy will probably bottom mid-year 2009 (based on a substantial stimulus package from Obama)
A Federal stimulus can shorten the depth and length of a recession? If it doesn't work do we get another administration?
So does this mean being a host nation for the Olympics isn't a sure-fire recipe for economic stimulus.
Somebody better get Vancouver on the coconut wireless !
Mmmmmm. melamine.
I agree with Ed, I think we will have a bad Q4 and then things will get better.
A country such as China with its capability with long range NBC weapons and a large poor population is something to worry about. Its history of fragmentation and warlordism is another worry. Worry Worry Worry
What happens after the stimulus runs out?
Sorry, We’re Booked, White House Tells Obamas - The Caucus Blog - NYTimes.com
Sorry, Were Booked, White House Tells Obamas
(One would think given security considerations for the first Black president of the U.S. they would make every effort to accomodate the new president and his family. Gracious, historic and admired Texas hospitality gets lost in DC.)
Deadthreaded-still OT:
matty writes:
OT- Report from the field.
Re: Currencies.
Recieved a newsletter from my main supplier via snail mail today. One item read: "Although (the manufacturer)(UK) has sent their 2009 price increases, the gain in value of the USD has been significant enough to permit substantial reductions in malt extract pricing for'09, as long as the current strength of the dollar holds. All are being reduced by 15-20%!" I guess the question is: Will it last?
matty | 12.12.08 - 2:50 pm | #
Tha Peter Lynch Mob writes:
So does this mean being a host nation for the Olympics isn't a sure-fire recipe for economic stimulus.
Ask the Greeks, if you can find some who aren't rioting.
Obama can be as stimulating as he wants; the economy's not going to go reverse direction from -6 percent in a mere two quarters. Even if money starts coming in, it's going to be very difficult to get people to do anything but stash the extra cash for a good while. The fear has to leave first.
Why should individuals behave any differently than the banks have with the TARP money?
dilbert dogbert writes:
A country such as China with its capability with long range NBC weapons and a large poor population is something to worry about. Its history of fragmentation and warlordism is another worry. Worry Worry Worry
But have you seen their teeth in China? For a country of people that just eats rice and plants, they all seem to have rotten teeth.
A country such as China with its capability with long range NBC weapons and a large poor population is something to worry about. Its history of fragmentation and warlordism is another worry. Worry Worry Worry
dilbert dogbert | 12.12.08 - 4:27 pm | #
Nah, not if you live in the West. They could invade Pakistan or something though.
BB&T Company Acquires All the Deposits of Haven Trust Bank, Duluth, Georgia
The Christmas parties I've been going to feel like funerals. I'm thinking about not going to anymore this year, but I get depressed for other people. So many people are absolutely screwed. It is awful.
GM announcement 250K less units 1st/qtr 2009 appx. 1/3 cut. Many US plants to be shutdown for month of Jan. Wonder how this will play with TARP? and the suppliers......
Everytime I see stuff like this it just makes me queasy:
"(based on a substantial stimulus package from Obama),"
Not in a "government can't do anything for the economy" way, or a "debt on the children" way, but in a way I think is even worse.
I know you give a sick patient medicine to make him better, so I am certainly not siding with the "let the free market work it out" people.
But we've been "stimulating" this economy, at least in the way our mainstream economics understands simulation, for how many years now? Low interest rates, tax cuts, deficit spending, direct cash injections... the low interest rates go back to late 90's with Greenspan going to what we thought was the absurdly low 4%, LTCM was bailed out, and the deficits have been with us forever.
I'm starting to wonder if this is a dead parrot. At a minimum it is resembling a goddam episode of "House", whose plot is always the patient is diagnosed, treated, everybody congratulates themselves on an apprarent recovery and then the poor sucker crashes again.
Sorry for the rant. I guess the short post would have been "if conventional economic stimulus has failed to work over and over and over again, how can you with a straight face predict a recovery based on more of the same?"
BFF alert:
FDIC: Failed Bank Information - Bank Closing Information for Haven Trust Bank, Duluth, GA
a different chris,
Thanks for the 'House' comparison - too funny.
"the economy will probably bottom mid-year 2009 (based on a substantial stimulus package from Obama)"
That seems a tad optimistic. Paul Krugman reckons any fiscal stimulus takes "8 months to kick in (and that's being optimistic)" (Nosedive - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com.
"followed by a very sluggish recovery in the 2nd half of 2009"
Second half recovery...LOL!!!
c&c,
Looks like the FDIC OJT program in GA is alive and well!
I might pull out my old econ books and see if there is a chapter called "second half recovery"...
Yes another Georgian Bank. Have people been pulling their money out in fear of another Russian invasion?
Yeah, Yeah. But how does this effect the second half recovery?
FFDIC | 12.12.08 - 4:28 pm | #
That ranks with Eisenhower snubbing Truman on inauguration day.
Hilarious. Second half recovery, again?! Didn't they learn their lessons the first time?
Isn't 10% GDP decline a depression?
On topic, I think the China forecast is going to be on target, and potentially optimistic if civil unrest occurs in China. If things break that way, it seems there would be some issues with their Treasury purchases...
Second half recovery - I do not think these words mean what you think they mean.
REBear wrote:
What happens after the stimulus runs out?
To continue with your thought REBear...AND...after trying to soak up the worlds entire savings for the year, we have to RAISE interest rates and pull the puchbowl (i.e., liquidity) or go into the mother of all inflations. What does Mr. Market think of raising interest rates in a deflation?
or, maybe...Second half recovery : "Stop saying that!"
People were buying long bonds in the early 70s too, bless their altruistic hearts. We remember trading some of those bonds in the mid-eighties. They had absurdly tiny coupons and traded at such deep discounts to par that they were the object of ridicule.
But short the long bond at your peril! Bwahahahaha
The Shadow Gold Price | The Big Picture
perhaps some economist will help me with this- seriously. If consumers take their savings rate back to 8% and the MEW declines to zero that totals to about 10% of consumer spending- and since consumers drive everything 10% in GDP (ignoring exports and inventories)
Trend growth rate about 2.5% (what we used to think before we got involved in hocus pocus). Therefore don't we need essentially a 5% down GDP for one year plus 0% for another to get "recaliberated". A stimulus program boosts spending but when it goes away it takes it away.
I hate that show and I also watch it religiously. I actually tell myself it's because of the hot bi doctor -- because I actually find that less shameful than the fact that the same stupid thing happens every week and I still manage to get drawn into watching it unfold.
Solidarity forever
Say no to the wall street pigs and southern republicans.
Stop all purchases
Stop contributing to 401k's
A worker contributing to a 401k is
like a chicken investing in KFC
The wall street pigs use that money to close US plants and send jobs overseas.
Perfect scam they have had going for 20 years
Use your own money to eliminate your own job.
Not to mention those great bonuses.
2nd half recovery. That's like a doctor saying "we killed the first half of the patient, but the second half is going to recover."
What will the effects be on the third half recovery?
Stimulus means we water down your purchasing power now, add to debt that impairs all future income streams, and incrementally impoverish you. But you can buy an LCD and lattes all day today and feel better.
White House Sanctions Bailout from TARP
Cordially,
K.
If things break that way, it seems there would be some issues with their Treasury purchases...
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 12.12.08 - 4:35 pm | #
That would be a super fun ride!
OK 10% GDP decline is a depression!
Recession? Depression? What's the difference between a recession and a depression?
A depression is any economic downturn where real GDP declines by more than 10 percent.
Stop all purchases
Stop contributing to 401k's
repukes_suck | 12.12.08 - 4:37 pm | #
Your wish is already granted.
What will the effects be on the third half recovery?
Tha Peter Lynch Mob | 12.12.08 - 4:37 pm | #
Hopefully better than the second second-half recovery.
crispy&cole writes:
BFF alert:
Some one said it best last Friday..oh it was CR: Now it feels like a Friday
I was under the assumption that China needed 5-7% to feed/cloth/house/pay given the labor pool size.
Ed Hyman is saying depression.
Second half recovery - I do not think these words mean what you think they mean.
Geoff
LOL ! ! !
.......
Good thing the Pacific is a big ocean ...
Long way to swim ...
"What will the effects be on the third half recovery?"
Sounds like my sister who asked me years ago how many quarters there were in a basketball game.
I don't think we came from the same gene pool.
who allegedly told his employees he was running a "giant Ponzi scheme," was freed on $10 million bail.
lmao
Alittle lite, i'd say. A billion would be a better start.
The idea that we could get news on the same day that 1) the U.S. domestic auto industry is definitely heading for a severe contraction in 2009; and 2) the U.S. recession will bottom in the second quarter...
is just pretty frickin insane.
WHERE ARE ALL THESE PEOPLE GONNA WORK?
For Obama? Nobody can create new jobs by snapping their fingers. It takes massive amounts of govt. stimulus and a lot of time.
Then, you have to unwind it all later.
While out on bail Mr. Madoff was seen burying numerous little coffee cans throughout long island.
Diogenes,
Policy makers are playing with fire.
Remember last year everyone thought GS was invincible because of all their 'clever' moves. Reality caught up. If not for Hank they would have been spanked by now.
Yes another Georgian Bank. Have people been pulling their money out in fear of another Russian invasion?
Assume Crash Positions! | Homepage | 12.12.08 - 4:33 pm | #
"We are all Georgian's now'
- John 'Disconected' McCai
Some thread music:
YouTube -
Wall Street is, was and always has been a big Ponzi scheme.
Thanks to Madoff for finally acknowledging the truth
Seems like GM is going into survival mode:
-G.M., many plants will close for about a month in one of the broadest shutdowns in the automakers history. The closures will occur at various times during the quarter, though some will extend the annual Christmas holiday through January.
-Local 276 in Arlington, Tex., told members that they would be off work from Dec. 23 until Jan. 20
[was freed on $10 million bail]
Mr Madoff might consider laying very low. Apparently some Russians invested in this ponzi scheme, unknowingly. They are not know to be very diplomatic when it comes to being looted.
Apparently some Russians invested in this ponzi scheme, unknowingly.
bearly | 12.12.08 - 4:52 pm | #
I'm long polonium.
Stop worrying so much about China.
They will be fine.
They were not the ones that caused the Global financial collapse by spreading their toxic assets around the world.
Their economic team is not dopes like the US nor are the Chinese consumers dopes like the US
Everything is bought in cash with hardly any use of credit cards.
The Chinese also save about 40% of their income.
The fat cat americans have been living of the savings of the Chinese.
The Chinese are patient but they want their money back in full
You know whats amusing? Earlier this year a couple of Chinese guys ran up a Ponzi scheme involving ants (true story!) and bilked some hundreds of thousands of folks in China out of 1.2 billion USD. This resulted in thousands rioting in the streets and not coincidentally a bullet to the head for the thieving schmuck.
I can't but help notice the difference in America where some even greater asshole bilks investors out of 50 billion dollars and all we are seeing are tut-tuts on the internet while the criminal in question earns a 20 year sentence to club Fed, oh and a small fine that is only a fraction of his thievery.
Do Americans have that much of a stiff upper lip and bourgeois attitude that they deem it too unseemly to raise hell? Or perhaps Americans are simply too fat and lazy to riot. It's absolutely puzzling that in a nation where the police have the right to beat the living crap out of you, that people will still take to the streets to demand their rights. While in a nation that is ostensibly free, John Q. public acts like a bunch of anesthetized sheep and will bitch and moan but not act.
Honestly, I think the Chinese government lives in mortal fear of it's citizenry, and it is this healthy fear which teaches them that there is a limit to how far the people are willing to take it. I don't think American politicians fear the American people one bit, and it shows. From the ritualized Congressional theater broadcast on C-SPAN to the absolute contempt that the executives at AIG and other financial institutions have for the taxpayer, America's elites just don't seem to give a shit elected or not. As things stand now, Wall Street will still get their cake, divy it up, and eat it too. They may not be so nonchalant should they wake up one morning to find thousands of angry proles outside their offices threatening to burn it down.
Didn't President Bush have a big stimulus program where he sent everyone checks and that was going to drive the 500,000 new jobs and second half recovery in 2008?
Am I remembering that correctly?
I'm long polonium.
Interesting Times
and umbrellas
Barley writes:
"Local 276 in Arlington, Tex., told members that they would be off work from Dec. 23 until Jan. 20"
What savings workers still receive pay?
Thinking the parts suppliers COD rummor is true.
Sure hope US can keep one reorganized auto maker
"I'm long polonium.
Interesting Times
and umbrellas?"
Come on, guys, that's morbid.
repukes_suck | 12.12.08 - 4:58 pm | #
At least one problem:
Hope you are right, but fear you are glibly optimistic.
...he thinks the economy will probably bottom mid-year 2009 ... followed by a very sluggish recovery in the 2nd half of 2009...
That sh**load of crap was already dished up a year ago (for '08 then)!
One really comes to appreciate Jas Jain.
Fifth Third Bank To Play Prominent Role in 3rd 1/2 Recovery
401k is 1/2 the fund it used to be
We're all fractions now...
"Didn't President Bush have a big stimulus program where he sent everyone checks and that was going to drive the 500,000 new jobs and second half recovery in 2008?"
I have no recollection of that. No one sent me a check.
let the bodies hit the floor...hope they have enuf riot police on staff.
Madoff's alleged $50 billion fraud hits other investors
[snip]
"Madoff's investors included captains of industry, corporations -- some of which are publicly traded -- that used Madoff almost as a high-yielding cash management account, endowments, universities, foundations and, importantly, many high-profile funds of funds," said Douglas Kass, who heads hedge fund Seabreeze Partners Management.
"It appears that at least $15 billion of wealth, much of which was concentrated in Southern Florida and New York City, has gone to 'money heaven,'" he said.
[snip]
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
I can haz bailouts? writes:
You know whats amusing? Earlier...
You're missing one thing. We are civilized people. They are communist animals.
Can Haz Bailouts:
I'm with you.
Shall we begin the organizing of local CR militia chapters?
Eco-nerds with guns. We're quantated and dangerous! A graph for ya face and a bazooka for your a#*!
Angry (and informed) mob here. Let's bring the pain!
The dividing line between civilization and barbarity is one meal. Judging from our waistlines, I had assumed we would already be getting a case of the munchies but apparently not.
"They are communist animals."
The characters in Animal Farm?
You're missing one thing. We are civilized people. They are communist animals.
Pete
You are a capitalist pig
I would not make claims of civilized behaviour based on most of your comments
China had a civilization when your earlier relatives still were naked savages.
"based on a substantial stimulus package from Obama"
Right. The substantial stimulus packages from Bennie were different. And from Hank. And from governments in countries around the world. But the one from BOb will be different; it will be effective.
repukes_suck writes:
You are a capitalist pig
I would not make claims of civilized behaviour based on most of your comments
China had a civilization when your earlier relatives still were naked savages.
Well, they do run their own citizens over with tanks if they get out of line.
=
those who are predicting a China breakdown will be disappointed again, like they have been for the last decades. The chinese are doing much better than you think.
i think 6 percent negative growth is far too much... check out this website, gives you a trading profile, very cool
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"Well, they do run their own citizens over with tanks if they get out of line."
and we throw our citizens in prison without trial...get a mirror.
"(based on a substantial stimulus package from Obama),"
Isn't most of Obamam's stimulus based on infrastructure upgrades? Most of the infrastructure building & updating that's been proposed will take a good year (at least) to get money into the economy.
Though, I think it is preferable to invest in infrastructure (and green energy ) compared to just handing out checks to everybody...
It's quite likely China could have an internal coup. A lot of conflicting statements coming out of the government recently, which is unusual.
China is mainly different in that they don't view the government as the embodiment of their culture. Our culture is based around the Constitution and our 'democratic' government. They are much more comfortable with changing governments than us, because the CCP does not represent China.
By the way, like 40% of the country makes 2$ a day or less.
I think we will have a second half recovery, I'm just not sure what year
Madoff apparently made off with 50 bil. Yeah, that's funny. Name makes the man. Like Liesman or Blagojevich, Goldsacsman, Lehman (lemon), Bernanke (Burn an kill) the dollar.
Name makes the man.
You forgot Kashkari.
purple writes:
...By the way, like 40% of the country makes 2$ a day or less...
And you americans think you need to borrow from them (!) and bilk them out of their savings by at least paying them back in depreciated dollars !
Pearl River Delta blues...
C
Also, the Chinese have been trying to kill Americans for years with their lead painted toys.
Good to see they are finally getting some of that karma right back at themselves.
===
comes the 2nd half no one will want to go to, or live in cities. streets will be rife with protesters, vagrants (former auto workers, and workers of all stripes), pick pockets and others driven to a life of crime by hard times. food will be scarce and no one will take the funny money let alone plastic. the authorites will be overwhelmed by the speed of social disintegration. vigilante forces will form and justice meeted out ala dirty harry. we will look back at the good ol' days of the here and now and weep for the illusion the fiat magicans worked for so long but ultimately ran out of rabbits. who will cry for us america? no one in the rest of the world i'm afraid as they'll be crying in their own soup lines and blaming US. be afraid be very afraid.
Negative GDP growth in China. LOL
The military-industrial complex is taking the USA down the same path and increasingly the same valleys in Afghanistan as the old Soviet Union but...wait a minute...LOOK OVER HERE! China is collapsing! Negative growth! Risk of social unrest (think: that Tiananmen Square tank guy).
" Dirk van Dijk writes:
I think we will have a second half recovery, I'm just not sure what year
Dirk van Dijk | 12.12.08 - 5:50 pm | # "
I think it'll be the 2nd half of the millennium.
Hello, I've been asleep since May 2008. Did the second half recovery kick in yet?
Looking bad for China. Should be some unrest in a land where protest isn't exactly appreciated.
A bit off topic. Our system was designed for stability and continuity not for responsiveness to the people.
That's why we have the senate which is essentially an old boys club and the filisbuster. The senate is redundant, we should abolish it. Or at the very least get rid of the filisbuster. Another institution which needs to go is the electoral college.
But first we have a recession/depression to survive.
No, no, no and no. China's exports are actually doing o.k. Inflation's come down a bit and that's made the gov't more comfortable about priming the pump. No way they're going into negative territory.
The stock market at bottom already? Fat chance. There's a lot still to be unwound between now and New Year's
Ed lost his touch this decade. As did the guy he hired Francois Trahan. They never saw any of the credit problems coming. And what you see happen to forecasters is that when they start to make a series of bad calls after years of making very good calls, is that they start to shorten up their timeframes and they wind up forecasting the present into the future. So whereas before they were very good at making trend change calls, when their record hits the ditch, then they start making the same call as everyone else. Which is an extension of present trends.
I have no idea if Ed will be correct on any of these calls. It's hit or miss at this point with ISI, which I must say has a number of really poor forecasters now, especially in energy.
ISI was once very good.
G
Replace every instance of "China" with "USA", and you also get a true statement. America's NBC capability is unparalleled in the world, it also has a large, poor (and ignorant) population, and its first 100 years up to the Civil War (indeed, nearly half of its history) had its fair share of militants, mutinies, and malcontents. Be very careful when you choose to judge others, lest you find yourself judged by the same standard.
dilbert dogbert writes:
A country such as China with its capability with long range NBC weapons and a large poor population is something to worry about. Its history of fragmentation and warlordism is another worry. Worry Worry Worry
dilbert dogbert | 12.12.08 - 4:27 pm | #