Electronic retailers are beginning to see an auto-like market...like new used 52-inch TVs are less than 1/2 the price of new via CraigsList and the like. Why buy new and take the depreciation hit?
OT- Brad Setser has some striking graphs and analysis of the TIC data i posted here yesterday morn. Agencies even more in the toilet (we're buying our own now), flight to safety massive. -
Every single business across the world will be cutting capex by minimum 50% next year. Best Buy will announce a capex cut of 95% in 2 months.
The exceptions to this rule are debt collectors, gold miners and philip morris.
Ya know, there really doesn't NEED to be a freakin Best Buy and Home Depot on every 5th streetcorner. With a Lowe's, RadioShack, and Circuit City on the opposite freakin corner.
We believe that there has been a dramatic and potentially long-lasting change in consumer behavior as people adjust to the new realities of the marketplace
Pretty scary when the pre xmas corporate guidance reads like a comment from a year ago on CR from the most bearish of the bears.
Ya know, there really doesn't NEED to be a freakin Best Buy and Home Depot on every 5th streetcorner. With a Lowe's, RadioShack, and Circuit
I have two Lowes and two HD's all about the same distance from my house. I don't expect them all to survive this. I hope they let all the birds still live in the buildings after the business leaves.
Was in BB last weekend with the hubby to pick up peripherals for a new 'puter we just built. I agree with the semi-busy comment another poster wrote above. Went ooh and ahh ad the HDTVs for a few moments, but while we have the cash flow/stability that we could theoretically buy one, we plan to wait until either our current 10-year old CRT Zenith fizzles (and it's still going strong), or prices dip significantly. It's called delayed gratification...but if most people knew anything about that, the industrialized world wouldn't be in this pickle, now would we?
You people are all worrying about Best Buy, Goldman all these big behemoths. I'm telling ya now....Nail Salons closing will tell ya the economy sucks. Until that happens...the economy is fine....so say all the smart guys on TV
Maybe because a lot of these TV's break within 18 months?
Unfortunately, the public does not realize that you get what you pay for. There are a lot of sub $2000 widescreens out there, and they're crap. I saved and paid for a $3500 top of the line Sony Bravia 46-incher two years ago and it's been flawless (knock on wood). Maybe I just got lucky, but seriously, if you're paying under a grand for a widescreen TV - you're going to get a $1000 lifespan.
The exceptions to this rule are debt collectors, gold miners and philip morris.
Comrade Peronista
Makers of low cost alchohol and pony butchers...
This recession isn't over until the number of stupid retail business gets down to a sane level. Ok, we've seen the end of many of the candle shops... now what about all of those day spas?!? In particular those that specilize in Botox treatments... sigh...
Then again, I'm also waiting for auto dealerships to drop down to a sustainable level.
They built a store in Manteca, Calif. just last month but it hasn't opened. There really no reason to open it with stores in Tracy and Modesto. Smart move to not bother in if it's the holidays
jo6pac
The race to the bottom continues.
What will they do when they run out of competitors to undercut?
A great record and CD retailer-A&B Sound used to sell albums for $5.99 and later, they sold CDs for a good price as well. In fact, Vancouver, BC used to have the lowest CD prices in the world.
Best Buy/Future Shop would buy 10 times as many units of a hot release and sell them at a lower price than A&B paid wholesale.
A&B declared bankruptcy last year.
Nice to hear about the age discrimination suit at Circuit City
Gee, I'm gonna miss standing in BB's cattle pen lines to purchase foreign crapola with a lifespan of a gnat. And then herded into another line to check my receipt and purchases because all of the customers are potential criminals. Where's my hankie.
wife just bought 48 inch Bravia, 120 hz, 1080p with internet connection for 1,000$$ at Costco
I'm not trying to be a snoot about it, but there are many different Bravia models at varying price points. I assure you, that is not the XBR model. I find it hard to believe that manufacturers will undercut their own models if they have the equivalent built-in quality of components.
The fact that models like the XBR have not come down in price like many others tells me that they are stuffing the cheap screens with crap components to grab market share on the discounted price point.
This isn't about store fronts. This is about credit. BBuy is slowing openings because they cannot finance expansion. It just sounds so much better to claim they re responding to market forces. Absolves them of the taint of being a poor credit risk. I still say BBuy's big problem is the secondary credit market for their consumer issued debt that they use to attract big ticket buyers. They can't admit to any kind of credit problems, that's death to their business model.
Dude, I'm so long. I'm long like Donkey Kong. It's the 'merican thing to do. It's patriotic. I got a shovel and just started loading the boat. Bonus, now I have hole digging experience. So when Obama gets his hole-digging/hole-filling stimulus going, I'll be in line for upper management.
I believe it was the CEO of Samsung who said a couple weeks ago that HDTVs would be 35% cheaper next year. That pretty much decided it for me right there. Tough luck Best Buy.
"they are stuffing the cheap screens with crap components" TM
What's the difference if you're watching programed mindnumbing crapola? Bigger isn't better. Take that 500lb elephant sitting in the middle of the house sucking out your valuable time and energy; TV
I don't know c&r. Builders in general need to keep the pipeline open. They are till in denial. New starts down 16%, permits down 19%. All the builders I know think they'll be the only one to weather the downturn and then they'll clean up. It's sad. At least half of them are destroying themselves for no reason. They should have sold themselves off a year ago and i bet most would like this year back so they could. Now it really is possible for them all to die. The business is just too easy to replicate and the names have no remaining brand value.
Nice! That's (obviously) the follow up to the XBR3, which, I believe came out a year after 1, 2, and 3.
I'd have to research what they did differently with this model, because it's the same piano black/glass frame, but there must be a reason it's selling for half the price of the XBR3. Amazon has the XBR3 currently at $3300 and the XBR4 at $1700.
Doofus writes:
Ya know, there really doesn't NEED to be a freakin Best Buy and Home Depot on every 5th streetcorner. With a Lowe's, RadioShack, and Circuit City on the opposite freakin corner
Sounds exactly like any number of street corners around where I live. They are almost cookie-cutter duplicates.
Giving folks benefits now whilst promising them still more benefits in the future even when though mathematically and logically those foreshadowed distributions are in fact impossible to pay must rely on the naivete of investors and the charisma of the schemer to persuade the gentle masses to reinvest their winnings.
Although often described as a Ponzi Scheme, the young immigrant Carlo Ponzi was merely following a well trodden path that had been forged by illustrious enterprises such as the Franklin Syndicate, the Dean Syndicate and the Storey Cotton Syndicate.
As Louis Guenther's Investment and Speculation(1916) tome states :
'It is a remarkable phase of human nature that prompts individuals to back with their money the claims of perfect strangers ... (these syndicates) were all blind pools, so to speak. They advertised that speculation could be conducted profitably and without loss. They secured some person in a community as a customer ... the result would be that the cupidity of others was aroused and they also fell victims.
Their schemes were simple. The dividends paid came from money their dupes sent ... luckily, such discretionary pools, as they are styled, have ceased to exist. The authorities are now too watchful.'
If perhaps a reader of today's headlines finds familiarity between a blind pool and the Federales refusing to disclose an accounting for ~ 2 trillion, similarity of 'distributions impossible to pay' versus a 100+trillion tabulation of future promises, a congruity of 'cupidity of others' with 'an ownership society' and a homogeneity between 'dividends paid came from money their dupes sent' and today's TARP and FDIC-backed bank debt - this blogger would suggest (facetiously) that such
correlations are most certainly coincidental.
From wikipedia:
'A bubble relies on suspension of disbelief and an expectation of large profits, but it is not the same as a Ponzi scheme. A bubble involves ever-rising (and unsustainable) prices in an open market (be that shares of a stock, housing prices, the price of tulip bulbs, or anything else). As long as buyers are willing to pay ever-increasing prices, sellers can get out with a profit. And there doesn't need to be a schemer behind a bubble. (In fact, a bubble can arise without any fraud at all - for example, housing prices in a local market that rise sharply but eventually drop sharply because of overbuilding.) Bubbles are often said to be based on "greater fool" theory. Although, according to the Austrian Business Cycle Theory, bubbles are caused by expanding the money supply beyond what genuine capital investment supports, and in this case would qualify as a Ponzi scheme, with expanded credit taking the place of an expanded pool of investors. '
Cognitive dissonance and learned helplessness leads to cognitive helplessness and learned dissonance.
Absolutely last thing I would spend money on is a television. I have a couple of old ones that will not work off cable, but as long as they can limp along, they will do. Television is something you watch while ironing.
Real Estate developers in my hometown are bitching that the local government isn't being cooperative enough with them. They want more TIF money, faster. This in a town that has a two year supply of condos and a three year supply of single family homes. No shame what so ever.
I'd have to research what they did differently with this model, because it's the same piano black/glass frame, but there must be a reason it's selling for half the price of the XBR3. Amazon has the XBR3 currently at $3300 and the XBR4 at $1700.
The reason it is selling at $3300 on Amazon.com is there is one podunk Mom&Pop trying to bilk a buyer.
The reason that at least four retailers are selling the XBR4 at ~$1600 is the worldwide depression.
Really fun and exciting because you put it on your card, weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
or,
Tastes like sour grapes because you can't get the thought out of your head that it took like 20 hours of actual work at your crumby job to get that shiny little jewel.
The consumer has left the building. I know I have, I pretty much hate spending money.
What's the difference if you're watching programed mindnumbing crapola? Bigger isn't better. Take that 500lb elephant sitting in the middle of the house sucking out your valuable time and energy; TV
Who said anything about "bigger" being better?
And a 46-inch screen is hardly a 500 lb elephant. I'm sorry you disagree, but the conversation isn't about bigger being better, but people leaping on sub-$1000 widescreens and being shocked that they crap out after eighteen months.
If you're going to pay $1000 for crap, you may as well keep the CRT. If you want a reliable, well-built widescreen, be prepared to pay.
The company's I.T. hardware guys were telling me our vendors are practically fire-saleing new notebooks for a third of what they were listed at 2 months ago. Pretty much at the point where it's cheaper to replace than repair.
Here's a Circuit City story. I generally buy there because of their frequent no interest promotions and their 30 day price guarantee. Three weeks ago I dropped about $1300 on a new laptop and mid range HD camcorder with 24 months no interest. Been watching the website and Sunday paper inserts like a hawk. Sure enough, the camcorder was $70 cheaper. Instant visit to customer service desk for a $74.90 refund. While walking by the laptops, noticed the one I bought was now $70 cheaper! Instant about face back to the customer service desk for ANOTHER $74.90 refund. I can't wait for this 30 day price guarantee concept to spread to the mainline grocers so I can get refunds on prior purchases of prime cut steaks and seafood.
50" plasmas are de rigeur for watching the sweater girls on CNBC when the market is tanking.
Rumor has it Santa is bringing me mid size LCD to replace the seriously old 21" office box. At $400/sf and SoCal Edison electric rates the space and energy savings more than pay for it at the Walmart loss leader price from Black Friday.
Based on the amount of traffic I had to fight this weekend, the people of No Va are doing their patriotic duty & running up those credit cards to the max, baby!
Even the Best Buy lot was full to the brim. Just seems like people are starting to think 'f**k it, we're all screwed anyway'.
lama(Unrated) writes:
Mostly Lurker,
My father's retail stores were in smaller city locations that were mostly shells of their former mill days glory. ...
please look at Nixon's plan to overhaul Welfare around 1970, the plan was devised by Pat Moynihan and dealt with that very issue you raised about moving people into a paying job.
the plan was essentially killed in committee by the Dems who told Pat that Welfare was their turf and stay off!
Hussman believes that stocks are undervalued and that we'll see a recovery in 2H09.
Don't get me wrong: Hussman is one of my favorite writers on the markets, and it was he, in concert with the folks on CR, that got me mostly out of stocks last fall, at about 10% off the peak.
But his entire thesis of "value" relies on "price to peak earnings", when in many of his own prior letters he's noted that stocks often bottom at a single-digit multiple thereto.
And, while peak S&P earnings this cycle were roughly $85, I think we'll see when the dust settles that $20+ of that was a write-off - as at least half of financial sector earnings were either (a) entirely driven by leverage that will never return or (b) completely fictitious from the get-go.
So take that $85 figure down to $65, slap a 7 or 8 multiple on it, and I just can't understand how Hussman - based on his own metrics - can reasonably claim this market is "undervalued".
[snip[
Last night, Mr Madoff's sons, Mark and Andrew, who worked at the family firm and are believed to have blown the whistle on their father, issued a statement, denying knowledge of his alleged activities.
A lawyer for the brothers said they were not involved in the asset management operations of the company, and that "they were shocked to learn of his actions".
[snip]
imperial subject DH writes:
If anyone is wondering why the market is behaving the way it does,
Please read Dr. Hussman's weekly commentaries for the past six weeks.
I've generally found Hussman's views informed and very useful, but I'm not sure how they address a situation like today where the market rallies despite a disastrous and unexpected economic report in perhaps the most vital economic sector in the economy.
I don't see how Hussman's article really addresses this phenomenon.
I think what's really going on is that the market is more focused on the Fed meeting today.
Clearly if you've watched the markets since 1998 you know the crucial role that Fed decisions play in where the market goes.
For a dramatic example see how Bernanke's rate cut in August 2007 sent oil prices that had been falling instantaneously and violently exploding upward (along with a whole host of other commodities). Moreover, posters in the comments section for this very site warned exactly this would happen.
hey TM, did you buy an iphone for $800 dollars too? How do you explain the current iphone price dropping by more than 50% in 2 years. Are they using substandard components in that too?
....if you can't figure out who the sucker is, it's you
Based on the amount of traffic I had to fight this weekend, the people of No Va are doing their patriotic duty & running up those credit cards to the max, baby!
As a former Washington, D.C. area resident, I can tell you that most people live in a household where at least one of the earners lives off of the government teet. Even if they don't work for the government directly, they probably work for a government contractor.
Now that government will be expanding over the next four years....well, you get the picture.
[Tastes like sour grapes because you can't get the thought out of your head that it took like 20 hours of actual work at your crumby job to get that shiny little jewel]
Ahhh, so please, how many hours to pay off that $850k 1200 sqft Korean War era dump in SoCal?
OT: Keynesian stimulus doesn't make economic sense
Currently Accounting
It might make sense in circumstances where an economy has had a high savings rate during times of prosperity.
But when your economy is in trouble after 25 years of binge borrowing it doesn't make a lot of sense to argue that the solution to those problems is super-binge-borrowing.
It's the drug addict mentality:
Withdrawal is too painful, so the only other option is to double up on the speedballs to try and get one more high.
It's sad to see the new administration quickly becoming the biggest economic drug dealer in history.
I wouldn't be so fast to assume that government jobs are safe and growing. At some point, possibly soon, DC is going to find out there's a limit to what they can spend too -- and it's a lot lower than they've been used to.
When that day comes the streets in that entire region will run red.
"The semiconductor industry is facing one of the toughest periods in its history, with global chip sales expected to decline for two consecutive years for the first time ever, analysts at Gartner said on Tuesday. The research company forecast worldwide chip sales of $219.2 billion for next year, a drop of 16.3 percent from 2008. That follows its revised forecast last week of a 4.4 percent drop in sales for this year compared to 2007.
If Gartner's predictions are right, it would be the first time in the semiconductor industry's history that revenue declined two years running, after decades of almost continuous expansion. The declines are being driven by the global economic crisis, which is biting into sales of high-tech equipment such as PCs and mobile phones, as well as other products such as automobiles and industrial automation equipment, said Andrew Norwood, a research vice president at Gartner in the U.K."
I think that at least in developed countries, a saturation point has been reached as far as personal computers and consumer electronics.
mal writes:
"I Love the Recession Because Things That Suck Are Dying"
I have not read through the thread, and I do appreciate the gist, I think we're in for something a bit more savory than a raised eyebrow and titter about excess undone.
Now, hoping to simply luxuriate in puritanical finger wagging, I'll scroll up...
The reason Hussman is successful is that he can change his bias based upon changing circumstances. So when he sees values decline 50% he sees more value in the market. Seems logical. Too many people here seem to be ignoring that 1. the markets are down about 50% and 2. we're closer to the end of this recession than we were 2 years ago (or believe it or not even 1 year ago)....
When Roubini and Hussman become more bullish most posters on this board throw them under the bus and completely dismiss their views - yet these were many of the same folks who praised their views and acumen for much of the past several years. Now that's very funny. I wonder who's right now.....
When that day comes the streets in that entire region will run red. Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) | 12.16.08 - 11:16 am | # I would amend "region" to "nation."
I would guess that with regard to Hussman (or Roubini)and his ability to predict the future he is more wrong than right. Same goes for those on this board.
Even the Best Buy lot was full to the brim. Just seems like people are starting to think 'f**k it, we're all screwed anyway'.
No, I think people are thinking this: we've bailed out the banks, soon the autos, homeowners, and state governments. Credit card relief MUST be in the mix somewhere, so might as well max-out and ask the gov't to foot my bill....
Sue (Capital S) writes:
Absolutely last thing I would spend money on is a television. I have a couple of old ones that will not work off cable, but as long as they can limp along, they will do. Television is something you watch while ironing.
Sue (Capital S)
All My Children = Smell of Spray Starch
Back when I watched TV there was nothing else to watch, really.
You're assertion that we are closer to end assumes the end date of this thing is fixed. That is very wishful thinking.
The end date is undefined. Interesting Times | 12.16.08 - 11:25 am | # Undefined meaning that you think this malaise will likely last forever or at least a very long time, or undefined meaning that nobody knows when it will end?
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) writes:
I wouldn't be so fast to assume that government jobs are safe and growing. At some point, possibly soon, DC is going to find out there's a limit to what they can spend too -- and it's a lot lower than they've been used to.
I agree--
I don't think anyone will even be there to answer the phone soon.
"I think what's really going on is that the market is more focused on the Fed meeting today."
Bear market is choppy. That is why it is a very vicious one. So many hourly, daily, weekly, monthly false bottoms and you can add even your owns!
Fear and double-or-nothing is running the show. Most of the market players today haven't even experienced a real bear market until now! And they come to the market with bullish believes, not adjusted to bearish conditions.
IMHO, both parties have a vested interest in the status quo--True welfare reform would lead to losses in the dems' base, and Republicans would lose their favorite scapegoats. Welfare policies are essentially designed to prevent food riots in the streets while also making it too challenging for all but the most determined, talented, and lucky of "those people" to break out of the underclass, which in turn maintains the status quo by preventing a mass inflow of people into power who have known real poverty. That way potentially lies an egalitarian mass social revolt, which is way more change than any of the established powers that be want to see, no matter their campaign slogan.
Fortunately for those at the top of the pyramid, people of all social classes are generally suspicious of major abrupt change unless the pain levels get too high. Ergo, breads and circuses are enough to keep the masses happy--at least for as long as our society can afford to make minimum payments on our bar tab. So why bother investing in health care, mental health and drug treatment, and real job training programs (not makework or financial aid scams disguised as "vocational colleges"), when just doing enough to keep folks fat and happy will preserve the status quo? I mean, it's not like the US has to compete against anyone else for jobs, resources, and security, right?
And now, I'm shutting up about this particular dead horse unless it gets brought up again...
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) writes:
I wouldn't be so fast to assume that government jobs are safe and growing. At some point, possibly soon, DC is going to find out there's a limit to what they can spend too -- and it's a lot lower than they've been used to.
When that day comes the streets in that entire region will run red.
You may be waiting a while-- about the only thing I dare not do is buy TBT or short DC RE.
I admit this based on nothing more than "fear and awe".
When my company lifts its: travel ban, raise ban, promotion ban, merit increase ban, Friday breakfast ban, severe spending caps, and token holiday bonus suspension.
"MINNEAPOLIS (AP) -- Best Buy Co. Inc. , the nation's biggest consumer electronics retailer, said Tuesday that its third-quarter profit sank 77 percent as it faced dramatic changes in consumer spending." ... "Best Buy shares climbed $3.60, or 15.3 percent, to $27.07 in midday trading Tuesday." --- I know it is now cliche to make comments about Mr. Market being a little crazy, agenda-fixed, or some other kind of "Eh?!?" behavior, but come on! Going up 15% in 1-2 hours?
Is the Fed's token rate change really giving people this much reason to buy?
Broward,
IMO, the implication is Intel in particular is going to have to re-think their business model. They have been a big driver of econ growth in Western US with location of multibillion $ fabs in many states. This will have a big impact in the Western US.
Also, I'm sure you noticed the report that Apple's sales are starting to drop. Their marketing driven price premium should suffer when consumers are cutting back.
I'm with Sue, TV's are for ironing. Hence why I want to buy ~46" one... But even knowing what's happening, the wife and I are watching our spending. Until my contract is extended... we've hunkered down and are spending nothing.
TJ: Good thing your little one's way too young to read, 'specially it being Christmas and all.
Yea... but you don't exactly expect people to pay to feed the free ponies, do you?
Retail is just plain ugly. Used car prices are dropping 6% per month (for an equivalent car, e.g., X yr old with so many miles on it). I'm amused gas hogs continue to lose value faster than fuel mizers...
I agree with what you've been saying. I don't think the economy can bottom until the right policies are in place. And once the right policies are in place, the bottom will follow some period of time after. To me, the right policies are non-interventionist policies, so until the government stops trying to fix prices, we are going to stumble blindly through an economic morass, with no end in sight.
All the pony references reminded me of a conversation I had yesterday. A guy I work with trained thoroughbreds in a past life and still does that on the side as a hobby. This weekend, he went to an auction and told me that of 80 horses, a little over half didn't even catch $1000 bids and went unsold. He did say that several were garbage but even so, he was somewhat alarmed about by the implications.
And this was a virtual repeat of a conversation I had with him 2 weeks ago about a classic car auction he went to. Lots of people desperate to sell to raise cash and still clinging to what they believe their cars are "worth". Result - not many bids for average stuff. Sound familiar?
ots of people complained that throwing shoes at the president was an act of violence, and therefore beyond the pale of what should be allowed. I think they're wrong, that it's a harmless expression of naked contempt, and that there ought to be more contempt expressed towards this president, but let's compromise. No throwing shoes. How about politely handing them to him?
The Rude Pundit had a brilliant and obvious idea.
This morning, the Rude Pundit decided to honor the efforts of Muntader al-Zaidi, the Iraqi shoe-tosser, by taking out a raggedy old pair of sneakers, putting them in a Priority Mail shipping box, helpfully provided by the United States Post Office, and shipping them to President George W. Bush at the White House. He included a note that read, "This is a farewell kiss from the American people, you dog."
Since throwing objects at the president is generally considered a crime, the Rude Pundit figures sending shoes to Bush is a small, good thing, a gesture of contempt that has context. Sweet Christ, at this point, there should be giant sacks of shoes heading to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, DC, 20500, like letters to Santa.
None of you can have any objections in principle to that, I should hope. Let us all make our own small protest and send George W Bush a little Christmas present, a polite version of an upraised middle finger, and box up some old shoes and send him a deluge of metaphorical and symbolic disgust.
It would also be nice if the shoes were at least serviceable, so maybe the White House could follow up with one last decent act by donating them to the needy.
--from PZ
Amazon has the 46" XBR6 for $1900; several generations above the XBR3. The XBR3 is no longer manufactured which is the reason for the price discrepency. Two years ago I got BB to price match Amazon and got $1000 off list ($3400 -> $2400) for the equivalent Samsung LCD.
TM, I've never understood the reson behind the pricing of older TVs. For some reason the prices are still very close to the new versions. Recently HDTVs have experienced epic price drops. My dad purchased a Samsung 46a550 for $1499 this summer which was a steal at the time and now you can easily get it for $1199 or $1099 on sale. Fry's is now selling the Sony 46" XBR6 for $2299; although I think the XBRs are overpriced.
Good point, I went to best buy's website and found a 8GB 3G iphone offered for $199, that would be a 75% reduction in price from the original not a 50% reductio
RE: the recovery here is something that most overlook...
there is nothing that says we have anything resembling a "V" shaped recovery...to think that, IMO, is laughable there have been multiple times in history where the equity markets have traded sideways (or been rangebound) for 10-20 years
i think thats what we have to look forward to - i.e. the "L" shaped recovery
buy and hold gets slaughtered traders do ok if they can spot the cycles correctly
subcommander doom,
Timesonline: Journalist who threw shoes at Bush, Muntazer al-Zaidi, 'has broken arm and ribs'
He may be a hero to millions of Iraqis but the shoe man has had to spend a second night in detention, during which he nursed a broken arm and ribs as well as cuts to his face, according to his brother
citizen energyecon writes: \t"What just happened on USD/JPY cross?"
They keep trying, but the indices seem to be getting like the bridge crew from the original Star Trek... \t citizen energyecon | 12.16.08 - 11:04 am ---- Are you saying that the retail (institutional?) investor is this market's version of the red shirts?
If I had the GFX ability, I will be on Cafepress right now designing "Red Shirt" Market Crew shirts.....
Another retail take on the behavior of rapacious chains:
We have a lot of demand for natural foods around here, and Whole Foods decided to come in and take over the market from the local players a couple of years ago. They leased two vacant supermarkets three miles apart.
Two years later: both are still empty. Extensive renovation had been under weigh on one site, but it has stopped dead.
Even the mighty Whole Foods has become risk averse -- or credit unworthy.
I'm sure you noticed the report that Apple's sales are starting to drop. Their marketing driven price premium should suffer when consumers are cutting back
I didn't read that but expected it. I'm basically using the railroad model circa 1873-1893. There's two major phase shifts -
1 - the inflection point of 2001 where increasing rate of growth turned to decreasing rate of grwth
2 - convexity point where slowing rate of growth reaches zero and turns negative.
Information has finite value, ergo it will receive a finite amount of resources.
Not a gigantic leap of deduction, I think but I suspect many folks in the industry are blinded by paychecks and stock options.
Where can you make money?
Whereever you can translate current human transactions into machine transactions. For instance, monitoring of security cameras. There's a certain degree of human effort that can be encapsulated and delegated down to the machine level, freeing up "human time".
3.5k for an idiot box? ha! I gave my tv away about a year and a half ago. all the sudden I had hours of free time that I had to occupy. I still get to see tv because they are omnipresent and always on blaring nonsense. people ask, "don't you ever miss it?"
Good point, I went to best buy's website and found a 8GB 3G iphone offered for $199, that would be a 75% reduction in price from the original not a 50% reduction
Canadaman | 12.16.08 - 11:45 am | #
I know I shouldn't feed the troll..
$800, before $100 rebate = $700
The $200 price is subsidized, replacement cost from AT&T = $600
So that's a 15% price drop, not uncommon with newer hardware often being faster and cheaper than the last version.
@Eric, I love you man, that's one of my favorite Ren & Stimpy skits.
It's sad to see the new administration quickly becoming the biggest economic drug dealer in history.
ac | 12.16.08 - 11:11 am | #
Chasing the dragon my friend...
Not going to end well.
Interesting Times | 12.16.08 - 11:14 am | #
Collapse of demand, production cuts, empty pipelines, shortages, hoarding, COD transactions, small business closures. We are seeing the beginning of all these right now.
Take the $100 and buy Bailout Nation: How Easy Money Corrupted Wall Street and Shook the World Economy (Hardcover)
by Barry Ritholtz for $16.47 404 - Document Not Found
3.5k for an idiot box? ha! I gave my tv away about a year and a half ago. all the sudden I had hours of free time that I had to occupy. I still get to see tv because they are omnipresent and always on blaring nonsense. people ask, "don't you ever miss it?" sneering nihilist | 12.16.08 - 11:54 am | # Got rid of mine 8 months ago. Best thing I ever did. I've lost weight and I've lost stress.
i've been reading hussman for almost 5 yrs now. he's been a great investor, and i'm sure he'll come out of this with great numbers. he is okay investing in a zone of reasonable valuation and admits stocks may fall materially from here. the issue i have with the zone of reasonable valuation method is that you start investing at the upper end of the reasonable valuation (let's say 14x peak PE) and you may be left with no dry powder to use if the market gets to the bottom end of the reasonable valuation range (8-9x peak PE). from 14x to 9x PE is 35% downside...that is some serious downside potentially left to go. and given the historic overshoot on the upside of valuation, i'm thinking there is a serious chance we see close to the lows of valuation range (like 8-9x peak PE)
I want to second what someone above said about alot of the people investing in these markets never having been through a real bear market or CRE crash before.
I continually see people saying that DC metro area is immune. I guess this time it is different?
A mere 6 months ago people were saying rents and prices never go down in NYC. People who were old enough to know better were saying this. People like Goldman Sachs and Boston Properties. They aren't saying that now.
Whereever you can translate current human transactions into machine transactions. For instance, monitoring of security cameras. There's a certain degree of human effort that can be encapsulated and delegated down to the machine level, freeing up "human time".
Classic Broward. Not arguing with you since there's bound to be value here. I'm just inspired to wonder what sort of dystopia one can inhabit minute by minute. Won't be long and I'm sure I'll find out.
But breathe deep and engage w/ yr neighbor first please.
Broward,
Agree 100%... mechanization/roboticization of processes currently performed by people generates productivity increases that translate into increased standard of living. The key is to re-train people from performing the processes that were automated with skills related to maintaining/enhancing automated processes. That way employment is maintained; of course there is inefficiency in the transition process. But this is the direction we need to go...
also...hussman uses peak EPS and doesn't reduce that EPS to account for the "fake" EPS from debt leverage and product lines in financials that are probably going away for 20 years. I'm not sure that is the right way to look at it, but in Hussman's defense, we have had large sectors of the economy go away in the past, so the 6% peak to peak growth could account for that already. the $64K question is: have we ever had such a large portion of EPS go away for good (like we have in the financial sector now). I don't know.
Only reason we have Cable TV is it's essentially free with our phone/internet "bundle", and that we're sufficiently far out of town that we would otherwise need a big rooftop antenna to get the local news/weather (we live in Tornado Alley, so weather forecasts are not optional at certain times of the year). We watch and record one or two non-crappy shows for posterity, but probably 80% of what we display on screen are DVDs from our personal library or netflix. For our purposes, our non-widescreen old-fashioned CRT will suit just fine until the tube blows, at which time the early adapter tax on HDTVs will be long-gone.
"I saved and paid for a $3500 top of the line Sony Bravia 46-incher two years ago and it's been flawless (knock on wood). Maybe I just got lucky, but seriously, if you're paying under a grand for a widescreen TV - you're going to get a $1000 lifespan.
TM"
I bought the same TV after lots of research. Also awesome for showing high res digital photos and 3d renderings. Perfect color and proportion.
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) writes:
"I wouldn't be so fast to assume that government jobs are safe and growing. At some point, possibly soon, DC is going to find out there's a limit to what they can spend too -- and it's a lot lower than they've been used to."
You're dreamin' I've lived within the Beltway, and it is a time honored belief they are recession proof. Who within government has the political will to restructure, other than a few token headline gimmicks?
With the demise of Wall Street, they are the new elites.
Yeah ... you know, come to think of it, I think you and I had almost an identical conversation on Hussman on a different thread a few weeks back.
I'm not even quibbling with his methodology in this case, which is normally the one big point of contention I have with him (cash flow, not earnings, are what matters over the long term). My point is really that he keeps calling valuations "favorable" ... yet his most recent letter admits that by his own math, "undervalued" would mean a level of 600 on the S&P ... yet then he breezily notes that "I don't expect we'll observe the 600 level". Huh?
TM: Look at it from the perspective that you have been willing to pay more so you could have your TV 2 years earlier than all the people who are trying to ridicule you now. (That is, the early adopter argument.) Don't look for other rationalizations, and don't even think for a minute quality is in the picture (it may, but more likely than not it isn't).
Aside from price discrimination, it is a known phenomenon that initial yields are lower for any tech product, and hardware makers constantly reengineer their products to use cheaper commodity parts, often keeping the same model number.
Went to Lowes over the weekend for a little shopping spree. They were bare bones staffed. they just opened another mega store a few miles away and said they were not hiring and staff was being redirected or transferred from the current location. i guess now the plumbing and electrical dept will have the same customer rep. It's best to be a jack of all trades...if you want a retail job...or any job for that matter. I laughed when I saw an IT guy post on job openings here a few days ago. He noted that employers now want "qualified candidates" that can do accounting, IT, management, trash removal, and need only 3 hours of sleep to be productive. I am still laughing at that post.
This place has been a great example of how government bending over - er, I mean being "business friendly" works out so well. It was orginally supposed to be a Chrysler plant, never opened, then it was a VW plant for a few years. Sat empty for awhile again, then they whored for Sony.
Which actually wasn't too bad a deal, they got 20 years out of them. Sen. Corker, et al will be lucky if they get much more than that out of their "transplant" auto factories.
I think the reliabilty issues with TVs are more a function of the technology than the manufacturing processes.
The old tube TVs were just a more durable technology than any panel TV.
But as far as panel sets go (plasma, LCD), I believe they are getting more reliable than their predecessors, not less. People who bought these types of TVs a few years ago were simply early adopters. They paid the price for having those TVs earlier than anyone else. Remember - big LCD sets were unheard of just a short while ago. The technology has improved since then in every way - especially in terms of picture quality.
So, to anyone who bought a flat panel set a few years ago - get over it: your TV has a worse picture and cost you three times what the newer, better version of your TV costs today.
hey are stuffing the cheap screens with crap components TM | 12.16.08 - 10:18 am | #
Hey kid, they stuff the same crap components in all the products. The ones with more features just have either a. a few more components on the same boards b. the exact same components, but with features switched on via firmware.
If you think manufacturers warehouse two component lines, think again.
"You're dreamin' I've lived within the Beltway, and it is a time honored belief they are recession proof."
Actually, I spent decades just outside of the Beltway, and no one that lived around DC during a certain period (call it the very late 1980s to early 1990s) believed in it being recession proof.
grumpyoldvet writes:
You people are all worrying about Best Buy, Goldman all these big behemoths. I'm telling ya now....Nail Salons closing will tell ya the economy sucks. Until that happens...the economy is fine....so say all the smart guys on TV
grumpyoldvet | 12.16.08 - 9:41 am | #
Dear Grumpyoldvet,
I just raced out to the hair salon during lunch hour to get my hair cut for a meeting tomorrow. Horrors! My hair salon is suddenly gone! This bodes poorly for my appearance tomorrow, not to mention the economy.
With regard to mechanization increasing standard of living---who's standard of living, labor or capital?
If we have reached a tipping point where all mfg is automated, where to people go/do to make a living? If they can not make a wage, who will buy the mfg products?
We tried the approach wherein we each sell houses to each other (service industry-70% of the gnp).
What do you intend to do with all the unemployed people who would normally buy your mfg goods?
The question not asked by those who brag about technology...
It is a logical extension of what was in store in this recession. The domestic consumers start spending less and the non residential consumers follow the suit. Asian markets have witnessed exodus of foreign investments particularly from USA and Europe. To cut down costs and as survival tool; all enterprises must be spending on what is most required.
Just once I want ot be first
The death of American retail as we know it.
Inflation, inflation, and not a dollar to spend.
So, is the 52-inch TV going to be the shortest fad in history or what?
kurtyboy is first with a typo - perfect
LMAO
j marston writes:
So, is the 52-inch TV going to be the shortest fad in history or what?
j marston | 12.16.08 - 9:17 am | #
No because they whave refinanced it into the home. They will still be paying for that when the grandkids are born....
I Love the Recession Because Things That Suck Are Dying
Electronic retailers are beginning to see an auto-like market...like new used 52-inch TVs are less than 1/2 the price of new via CraigsList and the like. Why buy new and take the depreciation hit?
Why buy new and take the depreciation hit?
Maybe because a lot of these TV's break within 18 months?
No post about the (likely) first YOY negative CPI for a quarter in like 60 years?
frank - precisely.
nova - my market timing is clearly brilliant, see last post on prev thread.
Gotta run.
C
I never finished! Just once I want ot be first to make someone type LMAO.
All my dreams have come ture with a tpyo!
OT- Brad Setser has some striking graphs and analysis of the TIC data i posted here yesterday morn. Agencies even more in the toilet (we're buying our own now), flight to safety massive. -
Brad Setser: Follow the Money » Blog Archive
Why buy new and take the depreciation hit?
pbpcbs | 12.16.08 - 9:21 am | #
Warrany.
In the first year of ownership, my phillips 42inch(2005) needed service, progamming changes 3 times. The level of complexity is retarded.
haha warranty.
Best Buy, hideous numbers, bid up only 10%.
Go market go!
Every single business across the world will be cutting capex by minimum 50% next year. Best Buy will announce a capex cut of 95% in 2 months.
The exceptions to this rule are debt collectors, gold miners and philip morris.
I was in a Best Buy store last week. It was semi-busy, but not Christmas busy in my little "recession proof" area.
If I am at all representative of the consumer demographic that retail is counting on to help them, then they are really screwed.
All I wanted for Christmas was a remote control helocopter so I can terroize my dog and the secretaries at work.
serf - flight to safety absofknlutely colossal. Check the long bond yield.
C
Will Best Buy gift cards be considered currency in the new economy?
Ya know, there really doesn't NEED to be a freakin Best Buy and Home Depot on every 5th streetcorner. With a Lowe's, RadioShack, and Circuit City on the opposite freakin corner.
Too much shit, too fast, too soon.
Time to go up.
Moin from Germany,
here is an update on the order intake from the European Volvo trucking unit.... Now turning net negative......
Volvo said a weak order trend from the third quarter had continued
with the number of cancelled orders in October and November eclipsing new orders by some 1,800 trucks in Europe.
I cannot help but somehow the erosion ( or implosion ) of the backlock from the homebuilders comes to my mind
And just after they built their huge new headquarters buildings, too.
How predictable! In fact... I did predict it the first time I drove past them; this happens every time.
We believe that there has been a dramatic and potentially long-lasting change in consumer behavior as people adjust to the new realities of the marketplace
Pretty scary when the pre xmas corporate guidance reads like a comment from a year ago on CR from the most bearish of the bears.
nova All I wanted for Christmas was a remote control helocopter so I can terroize my dog and the secretaries at work.
I recommend the E-flite Blade CX2. Freakin awesome for indoor flying.
"Will Best Buy gift cards be considered currency in the new economy?"
No - Canadian Tire money.
Ya know, there really doesn't NEED to be a freakin Best Buy and Home Depot on every 5th streetcorner. With a Lowe's, RadioShack, and Circuit
I have two Lowes and two HD's all about the same distance from my house. I don't expect them all to survive this. I hope they let all the birds still live in the buildings after the business leaves.
ova you can also fly the rc copter with a wirless keyboard. at least my son in laws' flew good.
wally, I thought we all agreed upon the Hoopajoop as the currency of the new economy?
All hail the hoopajoop!
Damn; even with Comp USA and Circuit City gone - reduced capacity and still too much. Was it Wal-Mart and the economy?
Who coined "the Great Shutdown" the other day?
This is looking more and more apt...
im using coupons helps a bit and if the companies want my business they will give me coupons!
We're all made off now.
Good morning JMF,
Anything new from hayman advisors?
The last analysis was brilliant.
Coupons? Coupons are for amateurs, I'm settling for nothing less than a pony...
Greenspan: "You want the truth? You can't handle the truth."
they wont give me ponies,so i try for coupons
ova: All I wanted for Christmas was a remote control helocopter so I can terroize my dog and the secretaries at work.
I also recommend the USB cube missle launcher
ThinkGeek :: USB Rocket Launcher
create your own missle defense shield
Was in BB last weekend with the hubby to pick up peripherals for a new 'puter we just built. I agree with the semi-busy comment another poster wrote above. Went ooh and ahh ad the HDTVs for a few moments, but while we have the cash flow/stability that we could theoretically buy one, we plan to wait until either our current 10-year old CRT Zenith fizzles (and it's still going strong), or prices dip significantly. It's called delayed gratification...but if most people knew anything about that, the industrialized world wouldn't be in this pickle, now would we?
"you'll shoot your eye out"
You people are all worrying about Best Buy, Goldman all these big behemoths. I'm telling ya now....Nail Salons closing will tell ya the economy sucks. Until that happens...the economy is fine....so say all the smart guys on TV
I'm cashing out my Sony points today. Those camcorders on Amazon look delicious. Even if we have a GD, i can record the whole thing!
If we had a GD the points would be worthless anyway.
And a sure sign of the approaching apocalypse.
The Heisman was won by a college sophomore.
toyotaJoe writes...
That is awesome! Beat the air defense system. Come in low and fast! LZ is Hot! I repeat! The LZ is hot!
I need to go talk to my coworkers...
Anon, coinz.
Grumpyoldvet:
And when the nail salons go under, I'm gonna buy me one of those suh-weet chairs for the family room.
Is the manicurist extra?
Well today so far has been one of the best illustrations I've seen of the sickness and depravity of our centrally managed faux free markets.
ova:
also check out the airsoft remote controlled tank...air, land and sea!!!
ThinkGeek :: R/C Airsoft Battle Tanks
Best Buy is a great place to feel the products before you go buy them online.
toyotaJoe writes
Wow, the grey one looks like a MK3/4 Panzer! I am getting it! And it shots BB's. Squirrel hunting in the yard!
It is funny when David Faber goes on TV with "bed head" hair.
He must have had a hard time getting up this morning.
off topic but Circuit City is my favorite for humor value
They have new commercials saying at Circuit City you can buy things in store for the same price online...
That may be true but wasnt true for the previous 5 years which is partly why they suck today
Maybe because a lot of these TV's break within 18 months?
Unfortunately, the public does not realize that you get what you pay for. There are a lot of sub $2000 widescreens out there, and they're crap. I saved and paid for a $3500 top of the line Sony Bravia 46-incher two years ago and it's been flawless (knock on wood). Maybe I just got lucky, but seriously, if you're paying under a grand for a widescreen TV - you're going to get a $1000 lifespan.
OT, but look at Rich's oil run...USO, DIG....all looking up.
TM, that $3500 Bravia is now $899.99.
Anyone see Goldman's average compensation per employee dropped to $363,654? Need more TARP!
"Anyone see Goldman's average compensation per employee dropped to $363,654?"
Oh, the humanity.
You have no idea how bad it is out there!! NO IDEA!!
When do we find out if Bush is going to bail out GM?
TM writes:
...Maybe I just got lucky, but seriously, if you're paying under a grand for a widescreen TV - you're going to get a $1000 lifespan.
There was a time, just a few years ago, when buying a $1,000 television would get you a set that lasted 15 years of more.
Ahhhh, progress.
safe_as_apartments writes:
TM, that $3500 Bravia is now $899.99.
safe_as_apartments | 12.16.08 - 9:59 am | #
wife just bought 48 inch Bravia, 120 hz, 1080p with internet connection for 1,000$$ at Costco
On December 16, 1944, Hitler's Ardennes offensive began. On December 16, 2008...
"Anyone see Goldman's average compensation per employee dropped to $363,654?"
You'd think that companies that do so much damage to the economy would have negative compensation per employee.
ac,
How are they going to retain and attract talent?
ac maybe they're getting their buyout early.
In line with the previous thread, why are they building ANY new stores?
The exceptions to this rule are debt collectors, gold miners and philip morris.
Comrade Peronista
Makers of low cost alchohol and pony butchers...
This recession isn't over until the number of stupid retail business gets down to a sane level. Ok, we've seen the end of many of the candle shops... now what about all of those day spas?!? In particular those that specilize in Botox treatments... sigh...
Then again, I'm also waiting for auto dealerships to drop down to a sustainable level.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
BBuy offered buyouts to ALL corporate employees
TM, that $3500 Bravia is now $899.99.
No, this is the Sony Bravia KDL-46XBR3. I just checked and it's still listed for $3300 on Amazon and elsewhere.
This is the model:
KDL-46XBR3 | 46" BRAVIA XBR Series LCD HD Television | Sony | Sony Style USA
Pony butchers? Good thing your little one's way too young to read, 'specially it being Christmas and all.
They built a store in Manteca, Calif. just last month but it hasn't opened. There really no reason to open it with stores in Tracy and Modesto. Smart move to not bother in if it's the holidays
jo6pac
The race to the bottom continues.
What will they do when they run out of competitors to undercut?
A great record and CD retailer-A&B Sound used to sell albums for $5.99 and later, they sold CDs for a good price as well. In fact, Vancouver, BC used to have the lowest CD prices in the world.
Best Buy/Future Shop would buy 10 times as many units of a hot release and sell them at a lower price than A&B paid wholesale.
A&B declared bankruptcy last year.
Nice to hear about the age discrimination suit at Circuit City
Remember Mish noted that 40+% of martial arts schools folded this year, too. The salons have to be hanging on by their fingernails.
Perhaps the massage parlors will survive -- where else will people find happy endings?
just woke up -- what did I miss?
Did Goldman beat? Retail numbers out of Best Buy good? Did we have an auto bailout? A good read on CPI?
I'm so confused right now.
Gavshire,
The future's so bright you're gonna need shades.
yes yes no no
TM,
How about the series 4, KDL-46XBR4, for $1700. Sony BRAVIA XBR KDL-46XBR4 46" LCD TV - Sony Plasma & LCD TVs Reviews and Prices at PriceGrabber.
Try not to barf.
doug r, I knew the family that started A&B sound. It is ashame that they were squeezed out.
When do we find out if Bush is going to bail out GM?
s0mebody | 12.16.08 - 10:02 am | #
Who cares!!!!!! JUST BUY 'EM...
Skying 'em now, boss
so the market is up based on an expected surprise cut by the Fed to -25%?
sigh
and on it goes..
Gee, I'm gonna miss standing in BB's cattle pen lines to purchase foreign crapola with a lifespan of a gnat. And then herded into another line to check my receipt and purchases because all of the customers are potential criminals. Where's my hankie.
wife just bought 48 inch Bravia, 120 hz, 1080p with internet connection for 1,000$$ at Costco
I'm not trying to be a snoot about it, but there are many different Bravia models at varying price points. I assure you, that is not the XBR model. I find it hard to believe that manufacturers will undercut their own models if they have the equivalent built-in quality of components.
The fact that models like the XBR have not come down in price like many others tells me that they are stuffing the cheap screens with crap components to grab market share on the discounted price point.
Gavshire,
You still have 5 hours for the market to open.
This isn't about store fronts. This is about credit. BBuy is slowing openings because they cannot finance expansion. It just sounds so much better to claim they re responding to market forces. Absolves them of the taint of being a poor credit risk. I still say BBuy's big problem is the secondary credit market for their consumer issued debt that they use to attract big ticket buyers. They can't admit to any kind of credit problems, that's death to their business model.
rob dawg could that be also reason builders c.and r. keep building?
Eric,
Dude, I'm so long. I'm long like Donkey Kong. It's the 'merican thing to do. It's patriotic. I got a shovel and just started loading the boat. Bonus, now I have hole digging experience. So when Obama gets his hole-digging/hole-filling stimulus going, I'll be in line for upper management.
If anyone is wondering why the market is behaving the way it does,
Please read Dr. Hussman's weekly commentaries for the past six weeks.
If you do not find his arguments convincing, then go back and read his commentaries for the past six years.
Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: Recognition, Fear and Revulsion - December 15, 2008
I believe it was the CEO of Samsung who said a couple weeks ago that HDTVs would be 35% cheaper next year. That pretty much decided it for me right there. Tough luck Best Buy.
How will GS grow bank deposits? How can we inform people of their deception.. Website!
I'll buy the url and put together...anybody in for some content..any seo supermen here?
it would be beautiful
TM, not only is spending $3500 on a tee vee crass but you are a FB,
$1495
TopChoiceDigital.com
"they are stuffing the cheap screens with crap components" TM
What's the difference if you're watching programed mindnumbing crapola? Bigger isn't better. Take that 500lb elephant sitting in the middle of the house sucking out your valuable time and energy; TV
TM was pwned! Philosophical question: can we rightly apply FB for an owner of a TeeVee?
I don't know c&r. Builders in general need to keep the pipeline open. They are till in denial. New starts down 16%, permits down 19%. All the builders I know think they'll be the only one to weather the downturn and then they'll clean up. It's sad. At least half of them are destroying themselves for no reason. They should have sold themselves off a year ago and i bet most would like this year back so they could. Now it really is possible for them all to die. The business is just too easy to replicate and the names have no remaining brand value.
Try not to barf.
Nice! That's (obviously) the follow up to the XBR3, which, I believe came out a year after 1, 2, and 3.
I'd have to research what they did differently with this model, because it's the same piano black/glass frame, but there must be a reason it's selling for half the price of the XBR3. Amazon has the XBR3 currently at $3300 and the XBR4 at $1700.
TM, ever see "The Body Snatchers?" That super duper 48in bravia screen is the 'pod.
Doofus writes:
Ya know, there really doesn't NEED to be a freakin Best Buy and Home Depot on every 5th streetcorner. With a Lowe's, RadioShack, and Circuit City on the opposite freakin corner
Sounds exactly like any number of street corners around where I live. They are almost cookie-cutter duplicates.
Marked to Madoff
Giving folks benefits now whilst promising them still more benefits in the future even when though mathematically and logically those foreshadowed distributions are in fact impossible to pay must rely on the naivete of investors and the charisma of the schemer to persuade the gentle masses to reinvest their winnings.
Although often described as a Ponzi Scheme, the young immigrant Carlo Ponzi was merely following a well trodden path that had been forged by illustrious enterprises such as the Franklin Syndicate, the Dean Syndicate and the Storey Cotton Syndicate.
As Louis Guenther's Investment and Speculation(1916) tome states :
'It is a remarkable phase of human nature that prompts individuals to back with their money the claims of perfect strangers ... (these syndicates) were all blind pools, so to speak. They advertised that speculation could be conducted profitably and without loss. They secured some person in a community as a customer ... the result would be that the cupidity of others was aroused and they also fell victims.
Their schemes were simple. The dividends paid came from money their dupes sent ... luckily, such discretionary pools, as they are styled, have ceased to exist. The authorities are now too watchful.'
If perhaps a reader of today's headlines finds familiarity between a blind pool and the Federales refusing to disclose an accounting for ~ 2 trillion, similarity of 'distributions impossible to pay' versus a 100+trillion tabulation of future promises, a congruity of 'cupidity of others' with 'an ownership society' and a homogeneity between 'dividends paid came from money their dupes sent' and today's TARP and FDIC-backed bank debt - this blogger would suggest (facetiously) that such
correlations are most certainly coincidental.
From wikipedia:
'A bubble relies on suspension of disbelief and an expectation of large profits, but it is not the same as a Ponzi scheme. A bubble involves ever-rising (and unsustainable) prices in an open market (be that shares of a stock, housing prices, the price of tulip bulbs, or anything else). As long as buyers are willing to pay ever-increasing prices, sellers can get out with a profit. And there doesn't need to be a schemer behind a bubble. (In fact, a bubble can arise without any fraud at all - for example, housing prices in a local market that rise sharply but eventually drop sharply because of overbuilding.) Bubbles are often said to be based on "greater fool" theory. Although, according to the Austrian Business Cycle Theory, bubbles are caused by expanding the money supply beyond what genuine capital investment supports, and in this case would qualify as a Ponzi scheme, with expanded credit taking the place of an expanded pool of investors. '
Cognitive dissonance and learned helplessness leads to cognitive helplessness and learned dissonance.
And with that said...
Are you ready for some football?
TM, not only is spending $3500 on a tee vee crass but you are a FB,
That's a different model.
Absolutely last thing I would spend money on is a television. I have a couple of old ones that will not work off cable, but as long as they can limp along, they will do. Television is something you watch while ironing.
No post about the (likely) first YOY negative CPI for a quarter in like 60 years?
Like the decline is almost completely in energy/related?
Real Estate developers in my hometown are bitching that the local government isn't being cooperative enough with them. They want more TIF money, faster. This in a town that has a two year supply of condos and a three year supply of single family homes. No shame what so ever.
TM,
Sony has cut prices across the board. Sonystyle list prices are like list price on homes in NJ. No one even looks at them.
The Sony HD digital camcorder SD 11 has seen its price drop by $250 in the past week (Amazon). Now selling at $689.
I'd have to research what they did differently with this model, because it's the same piano black/glass frame, but there must be a reason it's selling for half the price of the XBR3. Amazon has the XBR3 currently at $3300 and the XBR4 at $1700.
The reason it is selling at $3300 on Amazon.com is there is one podunk Mom&Pop trying to bilk a buyer.
The reason that at least four retailers are selling the XBR4 at ~$1600 is the worldwide depression.
"wally writes:
"Will Best Buy gift cards be considered currency in the new economy?"
No - Canadian Tire money."
My local movie theatre now accepts Canadian Tire money.
is haloscan really slow today>
Apparently Canadian Tire money is printed by a banknote company on banknote stock. Gotta cost more than its face value....
It's about credit...
Spending $200 on a best buy toy is either:
Really fun and exciting because you put it on your card, weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
or,
Tastes like sour grapes because you can't get the thought out of your head that it took like 20 hours of actual work at your crumby job to get that shiny little jewel.
The consumer has left the building. I know I have, I pretty much hate spending money.
ac,
How are they going to retain and attract talent?
REBear
Why would we want them to attract more talent? Better fraud and bubbles?
If these companies were creating economic benefits commensurate with the salaries being paid then I wouldn't have any problem with it.
IMO people should get paid big $$$ when they make other peoples lives better.
The opposite seems to be happening here.
The more lives you ruin, the more money you make.
Janosik,
You left out "Really fun and exciting because your SO spent 20 hours working for it and you didn't, weeeeeeeeeeeee"
How will GS grow bank deposits?
I hear a talented capital raiser is out on bail. they could hire Madoff
What's the difference if you're watching programed mindnumbing crapola? Bigger isn't better. Take that 500lb elephant sitting in the middle of the house sucking out your valuable time and energy; TV
Who said anything about "bigger" being better?
And a 46-inch screen is hardly a 500 lb elephant. I'm sorry you disagree, but the conversation isn't about bigger being better, but people leaping on sub-$1000 widescreens and being shocked that they crap out after eighteen months.
If you're going to pay $1000 for crap, you may as well keep the CRT. If you want a reliable, well-built widescreen, be prepared to pay.
ac,
I was kidding.
MLM,
If you substitute "ex" for SO it gets even more fun.
The company's I.T. hardware guys were telling me our vendors are practically fire-saleing new notebooks for a third of what they were listed at 2 months ago. Pretty much at the point where it's cheaper to replace than repair.
REBear writes:
ac,
I was kidding.
LMAO. It's getting harder to read the irony behind the words.
But ac has a good point. Our rewards system in this country is FUBAR.
Holy currency markets batman.
USD/JPY = 89.79!!!!!!
The answer is Pioneer Kuro plasma. Deeper blacks than anything produced.
Sony has cut prices across the board. Sonystyle list prices are like list price on homes in NJ. No one even looks at them.
I understand that.
The lowest price I've found for a "new" (not refurbished) XBR3 is $2100. About $500 more than the XBR4.
Sony BRAVIA XBR KDL-46XBR3 46" LCD TV - Google Product Search
Here's a Circuit City story. I generally buy there because of their frequent no interest promotions and their 30 day price guarantee. Three weeks ago I dropped about $1300 on a new laptop and mid range HD camcorder with 24 months no interest. Been watching the website and Sunday paper inserts like a hawk. Sure enough, the camcorder was $70 cheaper. Instant visit to customer service desk for a $74.90 refund. While walking by the laptops, noticed the one I bought was now $70 cheaper! Instant about face back to the customer service desk for ANOTHER $74.90 refund. I can't wait for this 30 day price guarantee concept to spread to the mainline grocers so I can get refunds on prior purchases of prime cut steaks and seafood.
Hussman believes that stocks are undervalued and that we'll see a recovery in 2H09. Wrong and Wrong.
What do you expect from a company who's cheapest keyboard is $59.99.
C'mo
50" plasmas are de rigeur for watching the sweater girls on CNBC when the market is tanking.
Rumor has it Santa is bringing me mid size LCD to replace the seriously old 21" office box. At $400/sf and SoCal Edison electric rates the space and energy savings more than pay for it at the Walmart loss leader price from Black Friday.
INO Equities Stocks Indexes - U.S $ INDEX (NYBOT:DX) Price Chart and Quote
DX looks to be moving convincingly headed south through 82...we going to get ZIRP today? (well official recognition of the effective funds recently)
What is that going to do to money market funds?
Santa is giving me coal for Christmas. And no, that is not an endorsement of the energy sector.
ac,
I was kidding.
REBear
You had me worried... I thought you might be an in the closed GS employee.
Hussman believes that stocks are undervalued and that we'll see a recovery in 2H09. Wrong and Wrong
Agree and Agree.
The more lives you ruin, the more money you make
From Adam Smith's lips to your ears.
I got panned for a BestBuy software startup last year. At the time I was annoyed but now I'm okay with it.
OT: Keynesian stimulus doesn't make economic sense
YouTube - Keynesian Economics Is Wrong: Bigger Gov't Is Not Stimulus
Retail czar will quickly uplift non-residential capital spending and fill with high spirits consumer sentiment.
Recession? What recession?
Based on the amount of traffic I had to fight this weekend, the people of No Va are doing their patriotic duty & running up those credit cards to the max, baby!
Even the Best Buy lot was full to the brim. Just seems like people are starting to think 'f**k it, we're all screwed anyway'.
The lowest price I've found for a "new" (not refurbished) XBR3 is $2100. About $500 more than the XBR4.
TM, have you ever heard of the term cognitive dissonance?
OT - but in reponse to an earlier thread
lama(Unrated) writes:
Mostly Lurker,
My father's retail stores were in smaller city locations that were mostly shells of their former mill days glory. ...
please look at Nixon's plan to overhaul Welfare around 1970, the plan was devised by Pat Moynihan and dealt with that very issue you raised about moving people into a paying job.
the plan was essentially killed in committee by the Dems who told Pat that Welfare was their turf and stay off!
Internet shack closing, must get back to beach.
That's Cambodia Captain.
No VA > government economy > recession proof > the new elites
What just happened on USD/JPY cross?
USD/JPY Currency Conversion Chart - Yahoo! Finance
"What just happened on USD/JPY cross?"
Looks to me like it's pump time.
... and vice versa on glod.
24 Hour Gold Chart - Last 3 Days
Hussman believes that stocks are undervalued and that we'll see a recovery in 2H09.
Don't get me wrong: Hussman is one of my favorite writers on the markets, and it was he, in concert with the folks on CR, that got me mostly out of stocks last fall, at about 10% off the peak.
But his entire thesis of "value" relies on "price to peak earnings", when in many of his own prior letters he's noted that stocks often bottom at a single-digit multiple thereto.
And, while peak S&P earnings this cycle were roughly $85, I think we'll see when the dust settles that $20+ of that was a write-off - as at least half of financial sector earnings were either (a) entirely driven by leverage that will never return or (b) completely fictitious from the get-go.
So take that $85 figure down to $65, slap a 7 or 8 multiple on it, and I just can't understand how Hussman - based on his own metrics - can reasonably claim this market is "undervalued".
Shrug.
Shocked, shocked I tell you! (had to be said lol)
Madoff fund liquidated as sons deny involvement
[snip[
Last night, Mr Madoff's sons, Mark and Andrew, who worked at the family firm and are believed to have blown the whistle on their father, issued a statement, denying knowledge of his alleged activities.
A lawyer for the brothers said they were not involved in the asset management operations of the company, and that "they were shocked to learn of his actions".
[snip]
Assume Crash Positions! writes:
Looks to me like it's pump time.
These are big moves. To influence them, especially on FX markets, you'd need billions... Oh, wait.
"What just happened on USD/JPY cross?"
They keep trying, but the indices seem to be getting like the bridge crew from the original Star Trek...
I'm telling ya now....Nail Salons closing will tell ya the economy sucks. Until that happens...the economy is fine....so say all the smart guys on TV
Well, then, the economy is not fine - cuz I've noticed several of them closing here in Silicon Valley.
OT: Keynesian stimulus doesn't make economic sense
Currently Accounting | 12.16.08 - 10:55 am | #
A lot of very smart (and rich) people want the gov to stimulate and inflate the problem away.
What a bunch of morons.
I am still 20% in oil trusts and 80% cash - just in case they get what they want.
FRB Commercial Paper
Oh, and yesterday was another day without a 30 day CP spread...whatever the heck that signifies...
imperial subject DH writes:
If anyone is wondering why the market is behaving the way it does,
Please read Dr. Hussman's weekly commentaries for the past six weeks.
I've generally found Hussman's views informed and very useful, but I'm not sure how they address a situation like today where the market rallies despite a disastrous and unexpected economic report in perhaps the most vital economic sector in the economy.
I don't see how Hussman's article really addresses this phenomenon.
I think what's really going on is that the market is more focused on the Fed meeting today.
Clearly if you've watched the markets since 1998 you know the crucial role that Fed decisions play in where the market goes.
For a dramatic example see how Bernanke's rate cut in August 2007 sent oil prices that had been falling instantaneously and violently exploding upward (along with a whole host of other commodities). Moreover, posters in the comments section for this very site warned exactly this would happen.
It's not ambiguous in any way.
Hussman believesHopes that stocks are undervalued and that we'll see a recovery in 2H09.
hey TM, did you buy an iphone for $800 dollars too? How do you explain the current iphone price dropping by more than 50% in 2 years. Are they using substandard components in that too?
....if you can't figure out who the sucker is, it's you
does'nt work here?
Based on the amount of traffic I had to fight this weekend, the people of No Va are doing their patriotic duty & running up those credit cards to the max, baby!
As a former Washington, D.C. area resident, I can tell you that most people live in a household where at least one of the earners lives off of the government teet. Even if they don't work for the government directly, they probably work for a government contractor.
Now that government will be expanding over the next four years....well, you get the picture.
FB??
[Tastes like sour grapes because you can't get the thought out of your head that it took like 20 hours of actual work at your crumby job to get that shiny little jewel]
Ahhh, so please, how many hours to pay off that $850k 1200 sqft Korean War era dump in SoCal?
Bubble Politician
Kennedys Credentials Are Debated in Senate Bid
- NY Times
OT: Keynesian stimulus doesn't make economic sense
Currently Accounting
It might make sense in circumstances where an economy has had a high savings rate during times of prosperity.
But when your economy is in trouble after 25 years of binge borrowing it doesn't make a lot of sense to argue that the solution to those problems is super-binge-borrowing.
It's the drug addict mentality:
Withdrawal is too painful, so the only other option is to double up on the speedballs to try and get one more high.
It's sad to see the new administration quickly becoming the biggest economic drug dealer in history.
It's sad to see the new administration quickly becoming the biggest economic drug dealer in history.
ac | 12.16.08 - 11:11 am | #
Chasing the dragon my friend...
Not going to end well.
Here a ZIRP, there a ZIRP, everywhere a ZIRP..........
wally writes:
"Will Best Buy gift cards be considered currency in the new economy?"
No - Canadian Tire money.
wally | 12.16.08 - 9:32 am | #
I used to park in a back alley downtown Vancouver. Shitty car, never any valuables in it, always left it unlocked.
Occasionally someone would go through it, I'd find the ashtray, and glove box open etc.
One day someone stole my Canadian Tire money.
I like to imagine some junky trying to buy smack with it.
@Canadaman
If you believe the iphone dropped 50% I have some remedial math for you.
I wouldn't be so fast to assume that government jobs are safe and growing. At some point, possibly soon, DC is going to find out there's a limit to what they can spend too -- and it's a lot lower than they've been used to.
When that day comes the streets in that entire region will run red.
Kudlow is a retarded shameless crook.
"The semiconductor industry is facing one of the toughest periods in its history, with global chip sales expected to decline for two consecutive years for the first time ever, analysts at Gartner said on Tuesday. The research company forecast worldwide chip sales of $219.2 billion for next year, a drop of 16.3 percent from 2008. That follows its revised forecast last week of a 4.4 percent drop in sales for this year compared to 2007.
If Gartner's predictions are right, it would be the first time in the semiconductor industry's history that revenue declined two years running, after decades of almost continuous expansion. The declines are being driven by the global economic crisis, which is biting into sales of high-tech equipment such as PCs and mobile phones, as well as other products such as automobiles and industrial automation equipment, said Andrew Norwood, a research vice president at Gartner in the U.K."
I think that at least in developed countries, a saturation point has been reached as far as personal computers and consumer electronics.
mal writes:
"I Love the Recession Because Things That Suck Are Dying"
I have not read through the thread, and I do appreciate the gist, I think we're in for something a bit more savory than a raised eyebrow and titter about excess undone.
Now, hoping to simply luxuriate in puritanical finger wagging, I'll scroll up...
bearly:
"Ahhh, so please, how many hours to pay off that $850k 1200 sqft Korean War era dump in SoCal?"
Paying off mortgages, what a quaint concept. You sell loans for profit remember?
The reason Hussman is successful is that he can change his bias based upon changing circumstances. So when he sees values decline 50% he sees more value in the market. Seems logical. Too many people here seem to be ignoring that 1. the markets are down about 50% and 2. we're closer to the end of this recession than we were 2 years ago (or believe it or not even 1 year ago)....
When Roubini and Hussman become more bullish most posters on this board throw them under the bus and completely dismiss their views - yet these were many of the same folks who praised their views and acumen for much of the past several years. Now that's very funny. I wonder who's right now.....
The FOMC statement should just be a crisp, "We have a Level3 economy", period.
When that day comes the streets in that entire region will run red.
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) | 12.16.08 - 11:16 am | #
I would amend "region" to "nation."
matt d makes me laugh . pic of rolls thru bk drive-thru
Big Foot,
I would guess that with regard to Hussman (or Roubini)and his ability to predict the future he is more wrong than right. Same goes for those on this board.
Even the Best Buy lot was full to the brim. Just seems like people are starting to think 'f**k it, we're all screwed anyway'.
No, I think people are thinking this: we've bailed out the banks, soon the autos, homeowners, and state governments. Credit card relief MUST be in the mix somewhere, so might as well max-out and ask the gov't to foot my bill....
"When Roubini ,,,, become[s] more bullish"
did someone link to cr on the yahoo boards?
I wonder who's right now.....
Big Foot | 12.16.08 - 11:20 am | #
You're assertion that we are closer to end assumes the end date of this thing is fixed. That is very wishful thinking.
The end date is undefined.
Sue (Capital S) writes:
Absolutely last thing I would spend money on is a television. I have a couple of old ones that will not work off cable, but as long as they can limp along, they will do. Television is something you watch while ironing.
Sue (Capital S)
All My Children = Smell of Spray Starch
Back when I watched TV there was nothing else to watch, really.
You're assertion that we are closer to end assumes the end date of this thing is fixed. That is very wishful thinking.
The end date is undefined.
Interesting Times | 12.16.08 - 11:25 am | #
Undefined meaning that you think this malaise will likely last forever or at least a very long time, or undefined meaning that nobody knows when it will end?
I think that at least in developed countries, a saturation point has been reached as far as personal computers and consumer electronics
Yes, very typical S-curve which would be in line with previous industrial revolutions.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=evolution_of_the_it_market
I predicted two years ago that the market would split into saturated, mass market products and a few high-value niche markets.
Watch it happen.
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) writes:
I wouldn't be so fast to assume that government jobs are safe and growing. At some point, possibly soon, DC is going to find out there's a limit to what they can spend too -- and it's a lot lower than they've been used to.
I agree--
I don't think anyone will even be there to answer the phone soon.
"but as long as they can limp along, they will do"
i always thoght the move to digital was a ploy to get americans to buy more chinese crap.
koan0215 | 12.16.08 - 11:27 am | #
Undefined - meaning no current perception of events can predict the end.
It is also dependent on the set and timing of specific events which have yet to occur - or never should occur.
"I think what's really going on is that the market is more focused on the Fed meeting today."
Bear market is choppy. That is why it is a very vicious one. So many hourly, daily, weekly, monthly false bottoms and you can add even your owns!
Fear and double-or-nothing is running the show. Most of the market players today haven't even experienced a real bear market until now! And they come to the market with bullish believes, not adjusted to bearish conditions.
Ex-Duke of Con Dao,
IMHO, both parties have a vested interest in the status quo--True welfare reform would lead to losses in the dems' base, and Republicans would lose their favorite scapegoats. Welfare policies are essentially designed to prevent food riots in the streets while also making it too challenging for all but the most determined, talented, and lucky of "those people" to break out of the underclass, which in turn maintains the status quo by preventing a mass inflow of people into power who have known real poverty. That way potentially lies an egalitarian mass social revolt, which is way more change than any of the established powers that be want to see, no matter their campaign slogan.
Fortunately for those at the top of the pyramid, people of all social classes are generally suspicious of major abrupt change unless the pain levels get too high. Ergo, breads and circuses are enough to keep the masses happy--at least for as long as our society can afford to make minimum payments on our bar tab. So why bother investing in health care, mental health and drug treatment, and real job training programs (not makework or financial aid scams disguised as "vocational colleges"), when just doing enough to keep folks fat and happy will preserve the status quo? I mean, it's not like the US has to compete against anyone else for jobs, resources, and security, right?
And now, I'm shutting up about this particular dead horse unless it gets brought up again...
Open question to thread:
What is your definition of recovery?
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) writes:
I wouldn't be so fast to assume that government jobs are safe and growing. At some point, possibly soon, DC is going to find out there's a limit to what they can spend too -- and it's a lot lower than they've been used to.
When that day comes the streets in that entire region will run red.
You may be waiting a while-- about the only thing I dare not do is buy TBT or short DC RE.
I admit this based on nothing more than "fear and awe".
God Bless America.
Undefined - meaning no current perception of events can predict the end
By definition, it's easier to predict the timing and rate-of-change of post-inflection point markets.
I used to get a lot of heat for "'being negative" but the simple fact is that pre-inflection markets are unbounded and hard to predict.
Post-inflection are much easier. It's easier to predict the shrinkage and demise of a market than its birth and rise.
I buy Gartner's prediction. The specifics may be off a little but the general trend has been clear for a couple of years.
What is your definition of recovery?
When my company lifts its: travel ban, raise ban, promotion ban, merit increase ban, Friday breakfast ban, severe spending caps, and token holiday bonus suspension.
What's needed is wage inflation not deficit inflation, but that's so anti Reaganomics.
When my company lifts
Sorry, dude.
Friday Breakfast ban is permanent.
"MINNEAPOLIS (AP) -- Best Buy Co. Inc. , the nation's biggest consumer electronics retailer, said Tuesday that its third-quarter profit sank 77 percent as it faced dramatic changes in consumer spending."
...
"Best Buy shares climbed $3.60, or 15.3 percent, to $27.07 in midday trading Tuesday."
---
I know it is now cliche to make comments about Mr. Market being a little crazy, agenda-fixed, or some other kind of "Eh?!?" behavior, but come on! Going up 15% in 1-2 hours?
Is the Fed's token rate change really giving people this much reason to buy?
Broward,
IMO, the implication is Intel in particular is going to have to re-think their business model. They have been a big driver of econ growth in Western US with location of multibillion $ fabs in many states. This will have a big impact in the Western US.
Also, I'm sure you noticed the report that Apple's sales are starting to drop. Their marketing driven price premium should suffer when consumers are cutting back.
I'm with Sue, TV's are for ironing.
Hence why I want to buy ~46" one... But even knowing what's happening, the wife and I are watching our spending. Until my contract is extended... we've hunkered down and are spending nothing.
TJ:
Good thing your little one's way too young to read, 'specially it being Christmas and all.
Yea... but you don't exactly expect people to pay to feed the free ponies, do you?
Retail is just plain ugly. Used car prices are dropping 6% per month (for an equivalent car, e.g., X yr old with so many miles on it). I'm amused gas hogs continue to lose value faster than fuel mizers...
Got Popcorn?
Neil
[What is your definition of recovery?
Interesting Times ]
Job creation.
IT,
+10 Wisdom
I agree with what you've been saying. I don't think the economy can bottom until the right policies are in place. And once the right policies are in place, the bottom will follow some period of time after. To me, the right policies are non-interventionist policies, so until the government stops trying to fix prices, we are going to stumble blindly through an economic morass, with no end in sight.
"Friday breakfast ban"
Three words, and I think I know what they mean.
Sorry to ask, what is this?
All the pony references reminded me of a conversation I had yesterday. A guy I work with trained thoroughbreds in a past life and still does that on the side as a hobby. This weekend, he went to an auction and told me that of 80 horses, a little over half didn't even catch $1000 bids and went unsold. He did say that several were garbage but even so, he was somewhat alarmed about by the implications.
And this was a virtual repeat of a conversation I had with him 2 weeks ago about a classic car auction he went to. Lots of people desperate to sell to raise cash and still clinging to what they believe their cars are "worth". Result - not many bids for average stuff. Sound familiar?
Shoes are bullish:
Shoes for Christmas
Category: Politics
ots of people complained that throwing shoes at the president was an act of violence, and therefore beyond the pale of what should be allowed. I think they're wrong, that it's a harmless expression of naked contempt, and that there ought to be more contempt expressed towards this president, but let's compromise. No throwing shoes. How about politely handing them to him?
The Rude Pundit had a brilliant and obvious idea.
This morning, the Rude Pundit decided to honor the efforts of Muntader al-Zaidi, the Iraqi shoe-tosser, by taking out a raggedy old pair of sneakers, putting them in a Priority Mail shipping box, helpfully provided by the United States Post Office, and shipping them to President George W. Bush at the White House. He included a note that read, "This is a farewell kiss from the American people, you dog."
Since throwing objects at the president is generally considered a crime, the Rude Pundit figures sending shoes to Bush is a small, good thing, a gesture of contempt that has context. Sweet Christ, at this point, there should be giant sacks of shoes heading to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, DC, 20500, like letters to Santa.
None of you can have any objections in principle to that, I should hope. Let us all make our own small protest and send George W Bush a little Christmas present, a polite version of an upraised middle finger, and box up some old shoes and send him a deluge of metaphorical and symbolic disgust.
It would also be nice if the shoes were at least serviceable, so maybe the White House could follow up with one last decent act by donating them to the needy.
--from PZ
What is your definition of recovery?
When Greenspan, Bernanke, Rubin,Paulson, Bush, and Congress enter the Betty Ford Center for the 12 step Gambling Addiction Recovery Program.
Man, that buy button is so big and shiny......
YouTube -
skip to the 9:17 mark.....
"that's just it... we don't know... MAYBE SOMETHING BAD, MAYBE SOMETHING GOOD...."
Amazon has the 46" XBR6 for $1900; several generations above the XBR3. The XBR3 is no longer manufactured which is the reason for the price discrepency. Two years ago I got BB to price match Amazon and got $1000 off list ($3400 -> $2400) for the equivalent Samsung LCD.
when will the FED rate cuts be announced ?
TM, I've never understood the reson behind the pricing of older TVs. For some reason the prices are still very close to the new versions. Recently HDTVs have experienced epic price drops. My dad purchased a Samsung 46a550 for $1499 this summer which was a steal at the time and now you can easily get it for $1199 or $1099 on sale. Fry's is now selling the Sony 46" XBR6 for $2299; although I think the XBRs are overpriced.
@Brontide
Good point, I went to best buy's website and found a 8GB 3G iphone offered for $199, that would be a 75% reduction in price from the original not a 50% reductio
RE: the recovery
here is something that most overlook...
there is nothing that says we have anything resembling a "V" shaped recovery...to think that, IMO, is laughable
there have been multiple times in history where the equity markets have traded sideways (or been rangebound) for 10-20 years
i think thats what we have to look forward to - i.e. the "L" shaped recovery
buy and hold gets slaughtered
traders do ok if they can spot the cycles correctly
subcommander doom,
Timesonline: Journalist who threw shoes at Bush, Muntazer al-Zaidi, 'has broken arm and ribs'
He may be a hero to millions of Iraqis but the shoe man has had to spend a second night in detention, during which he nursed a broken arm and ribs as well as cuts to his face, according to his brother
Fed normally announced around 2:00 east coast time.
Fed normally announced around 2:00 east coast time.
12th Percentile | 12.16.08 - 11:48 am | #
2:15
Sign of the Apocalypse: Madoff on regulation, investing (Dealscape - Signs of the Apocalypse)
From jesse cafe americain
Madoff interview. It is amazing how comfortable he looks. I would buy from him.
citizen energyecon writes:
\t"What just happened on USD/JPY cross?"
They keep trying, but the indices seem to be getting like the bridge crew from the original Star Trek...
\t citizen energyecon | 12.16.08 - 11:04 am
----
Are you saying that the retail (institutional?) investor is this market's version of the red shirts?
If I had the GFX ability, I will be on Cafepress right now designing "Red Shirt" Market Crew shirts.....
Another retail take on the behavior of rapacious chains:
We have a lot of demand for natural foods around here, and Whole Foods decided to come in and take over the market from the local players a couple of years ago. They leased two vacant supermarkets three miles apart.
Two years later: both are still empty. Extensive renovation had been under weigh on one site, but it has stopped dead.
Even the mighty Whole Foods has become risk averse -- or credit unworthy.
I'll be more confident knowing what a recovery will look like when I'm confident I know what we have to recover from.
Apparently some people think this is as bad as it will get. I wish I shared their optimism.
I'm sure you noticed the report that Apple's sales are starting to drop. Their marketing driven price premium should suffer when consumers are cutting back
I didn't read that but expected it. I'm basically using the railroad model circa 1873-1893. There's two major phase shifts -
1 - the inflection point of 2001 where increasing rate of growth turned to decreasing rate of grwth
2 - convexity point where slowing rate of growth reaches zero and turns negative.
Information has finite value, ergo it will receive a finite amount of resources.
Not a gigantic leap of deduction, I think but I suspect many folks in the industry are blinded by paychecks and stock options.
Where can you make money?
Whereever you can translate current human transactions into machine transactions. For instance, monitoring of security cameras. There's a certain degree of human effort that can be encapsulated and delegated down to the machine level, freeing up "human time".
3.5k for an idiot box? ha! I gave my tv away about a year and a half ago. all the sudden I had hours of free time that I had to occupy. I still get to see tv because they are omnipresent and always on blaring nonsense. people ask, "don't you ever miss it?"
nope
" bearly writes:
[What is your definition of recovery?
Interesting Times ]
Job creation.
bearly | 12.16.08 - 11:38 am | # "
I presume you mean "net" job creation?
Good point, I went to best buy's website and found a 8GB 3G iphone offered for $199, that would be a 75% reduction in price from the original not a 50% reduction
Canadaman | 12.16.08 - 11:45 am | #
I know I shouldn't feed the troll..
$800, before $100 rebate = $700
The $200 price is subsidized, replacement cost from AT&T = $600
So that's a 15% price drop, not uncommon with newer hardware often being faster and cheaper than the last version.
@Eric, I love you man, that's one of my favorite Ren & Stimpy skits.
Kudlow is a retarded shameless crook.
bearly | 12.16.08 - 11:17 am | #
Whereupon Gary gives bearly a cookie.
It's sad to see the new administration quickly becoming the biggest economic drug dealer in history.
ac | 12.16.08 - 11:11 am | #
Chasing the dragon my friend...
Not going to end well.
Interesting Times | 12.16.08 - 11:14 am | #
Collapse of demand, production cuts, empty pipelines, shortages, hoarding, COD transactions, small business closures. We are seeing the beginning of all these right now.
Take the $100 and buy Bailout Nation: How Easy Money Corrupted Wall Street and Shook the World Economy (Hardcover)
by Barry Ritholtz for $16.47
404 - Document Not Found
to see how America is truly FUBAR !
3.5k for an idiot box? ha! I gave my tv away about a year and a half ago. all the sudden I had hours of free time that I had to occupy. I still get to see tv because they are omnipresent and always on blaring nonsense. people ask, "don't you ever miss it?"
sneering nihilist | 12.16.08 - 11:54 am | #
Got rid of mine 8 months ago. Best thing I ever did. I've lost weight and I've lost stress.
Mook:
i've been reading hussman for almost 5 yrs now. he's been a great investor, and i'm sure he'll come out of this with great numbers. he is okay investing in a zone of reasonable valuation and admits stocks may fall materially from here. the issue i have with the zone of reasonable valuation method is that you start investing at the upper end of the reasonable valuation (let's say 14x peak PE) and you may be left with no dry powder to use if the market gets to the bottom end of the reasonable valuation range (8-9x peak PE). from 14x to 9x PE is 35% downside...that is some serious downside potentially left to go. and given the historic overshoot on the upside of valuation, i'm thinking there is a serious chance we see close to the lows of valuation range (like 8-9x peak PE)
I want to second what someone above said about alot of the people investing in these markets never having been through a real bear market or CRE crash before.
I continually see people saying that DC metro area is immune. I guess this time it is different?
A mere 6 months ago people were saying rents and prices never go down in NYC. People who were old enough to know better were saying this. People like Goldman Sachs and Boston Properties. They aren't saying that now.
With the change over from analog to digital tv, I think the govt. and business will be in for a shock!!!
People will desire, for what ever the reason to disconnect from the Matrix...
I enjoy TV... of course I don't have cable and I time shift almost everything that I do watch OTA. I gave up on TV news as well.
BH:
Where can you make money?
Whereever you can translate current human transactions into machine transactions. For instance, monitoring of security cameras. There's a certain degree of human effort that can be encapsulated and delegated down to the machine level, freeing up "human time".
Classic Broward. Not arguing with you since there's bound to be value here. I'm just inspired to wonder what sort of dystopia one can inhabit minute by minute. Won't be long and I'm sure I'll find out.
But breathe deep and engage w/ yr neighbor first please.
Broward,
Agree 100%... mechanization/roboticization of processes currently performed by people generates productivity increases that translate into increased standard of living. The key is to re-train people from performing the processes that were automated with skills related to maintaining/enhancing automated processes. That way employment is maintained; of course there is inefficiency in the transition process. But this is the direction we need to go...
Mook:
also...hussman uses peak EPS and doesn't reduce that EPS to account for the "fake" EPS from debt leverage and product lines in financials that are probably going away for 20 years. I'm not sure that is the right way to look at it, but in Hussman's defense, we have had large sectors of the economy go away in the past, so the 6% peak to peak growth could account for that already. the $64K question is: have we ever had such a large portion of EPS go away for good (like we have in the financial sector now). I don't know.
Only reason we have Cable TV is it's essentially free with our phone/internet "bundle", and that we're sufficiently far out of town that we would otherwise need a big rooftop antenna to get the local news/weather (we live in Tornado Alley, so weather forecasts are not optional at certain times of the year). We watch and record one or two non-crappy shows for posterity, but probably 80% of what we display on screen are DVDs from our personal library or netflix. For our purposes, our non-widescreen old-fashioned CRT will suit just fine until the tube blows, at which time the early adapter tax on HDTVs will be long-gone.
Eric | 12.16.08 - 11:44 am | #
The beautiful, SHINY button. The big, red CANDY-like button . . .
Don't have time to watch that right now but had a tape of it in college. Great, great stuff.
But breathe deep and engage w/ yr neighbor first please.
Only if it's a kinky, easy-going woman. Hard to find, particularly at fifty.
I'm off to the coffee shop to try, though.
YouTube - VNV Nation-Chrome
"If I could change your mind,
I wouldn't save you from the path you wander"
"If I could change your mind,
I wouldn't save you from the path you wander"
Thanks, I don't have speakers at the moment to enjoy this, but I trust you that it's better than Marvin Gaye.
Good luck at the coffee shop, BH!
anybody catch the bit on NPR this AM about the Fed instituting quantitative easing?
this is the helicopter Ben schtick, I think?
"I saved and paid for a $3500 top of the line Sony Bravia 46-incher two years ago and it's been flawless (knock on wood). Maybe I just got lucky, but seriously, if you're paying under a grand for a widescreen TV - you're going to get a $1000 lifespan.
TM"
I bought the same TV after lots of research. Also awesome for showing high res digital photos and 3d renderings. Perfect color and proportion.
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) writes:
"I wouldn't be so fast to assume that government jobs are safe and growing. At some point, possibly soon, DC is going to find out there's a limit to what they can spend too -- and it's a lot lower than they've been used to."
You're dreamin' I've lived within the Beltway, and it is a time honored belief they are recession proof. Who within government has the political will to restructure, other than a few token headline gimmicks?
With the demise of Wall Street, they are the new elites.
antucket:
Yeah ... you know, come to think of it, I think you and I had almost an identical conversation on Hussman on a different thread a few weeks back.
I'm not even quibbling with his methodology in this case, which is normally the one big point of contention I have with him (cash flow, not earnings, are what matters over the long term). My point is really that he keeps calling valuations "favorable" ... yet his most recent letter admits that by his own math, "undervalued" would mean a level of 600 on the S&P ... yet then he breezily notes that "I don't expect we'll observe the 600 level". Huh?
Re: consumer behavior as people adjust to the new realities of the marketplace."
TM: Look at it from the perspective that you have been willing to pay more so you could have your TV 2 years earlier than all the people who are trying to ridicule you now. (That is, the early adopter argument.) Don't look for other rationalizations, and don't even think for a minute quality is in the picture (it may, but more likely than not it isn't).
Aside from price discrimination, it is a known phenomenon that initial yields are lower for any tech product, and hardware makers constantly reengineer their products to use cheaper commodity parts, often keeping the same model number.
Went to Lowes over the weekend for a little shopping spree. They were bare bones staffed. they just opened another mega store a few miles away and said they were not hiring and staff was being redirected or transferred from the current location. i guess now the plumbing and electrical dept will have the same customer rep. It's best to be a jack of all trades...if you want a retail job...or any job for that matter. I laughed when I saw an IT guy post on job openings here a few days ago. He noted that employers now want "qualified candidates" that can do accounting, IT, management, trash removal, and need only 3 hours of sleep to be productive. I am still laughing at that post.
Built right here in Western Pa!! Uh, sadly only for a few more months:
Sony phasing out Westmoreland plant by 2010
This place has been a great example of how government bending over - er, I mean being "business friendly" works out so well. It was orginally supposed to be a Chrysler plant, never opened, then it was a VW plant for a few years. Sat empty for awhile again, then they whored for Sony.
Which actually wasn't too bad a deal, they got 20 years out of them. Sen. Corker, et al will be lucky if they get much more than that out of their "transplant" auto factories.
I think the reliabilty issues with TVs are more a function of the technology than the manufacturing processes.
The old tube TVs were just a more durable technology than any panel TV.
But as far as panel sets go (plasma, LCD), I believe they are getting more reliable than their predecessors, not less. People who bought these types of TVs a few years ago were simply early adopters. They paid the price for having those TVs earlier than anyone else. Remember - big LCD sets were unheard of just a short while ago. The technology has improved since then in every way - especially in terms of picture quality.
So, to anyone who bought a flat panel set a few years ago - get over it: your TV has a worse picture and cost you three times what the newer, better version of your TV costs today.
hey are stuffing the cheap screens with crap components
TM | 12.16.08 - 10:18 am | #
Hey kid, they stuff the same crap components in all the products.
The ones with more features just have either
a. a few more components on the same boards
b. the exact same components, but with features switched on via firmware.
If you think manufacturers warehouse two component lines, think again.
Electronics manufacturing is the lynchpin of China's economy right now.
So, to anyone who bought a flat panel set a few years ago - get over it... HG
In other words; The Biggest Loser....
"You're dreamin' I've lived within the Beltway, and it is a time honored belief they are recession proof."
Actually, I spent decades just outside of the Beltway, and no one that lived around DC during a certain period (call it the very late 1980s to early 1990s) believed in it being recession proof.
But then, that is all ancient history, right?
grumpyoldvet writes:
You people are all worrying about Best Buy, Goldman all these big behemoths. I'm telling ya now....Nail Salons closing will tell ya the economy sucks. Until that happens...the economy is fine....so say all the smart guys on TV
grumpyoldvet | 12.16.08 - 9:41 am | #
Dear Grumpyoldvet,
I just raced out to the hair salon during lunch hour to get my hair cut for a meeting tomorrow. Horrors! My hair salon is suddenly gone! This bodes poorly for my appearance tomorrow, not to mention the economy.
citizen Kung Fu Panda,
With regard to mechanization increasing standard of living---who's standard of living, labor or capital?
If we have reached a tipping point where all mfg is automated, where to people go/do to make a living? If they can not make a wage, who will buy the mfg products?
We tried the approach wherein we each sell houses to each other (service industry-70% of the gnp).
What do you intend to do with all the unemployed people who would normally buy your mfg goods?
The question not asked by those who brag about technology...
I saw this on that CNBC show On The Money last night...
It seems even the holiday season can't save these business...looks like this pullback is going to continue
Kudlow is a retarded shameless crook.
bearly | 12.16.08 - 11:17 am | #
And in other breaking news... JFK shot in Dallas
It is a logical extension of what was in store in this recession. The domestic consumers start spending less and the non residential consumers follow the suit. Asian markets have witnessed exodus of foreign investments particularly from USA and Europe. To cut down costs and as survival tool; all enterprises must be spending on what is most required.