Shout-out to my idiot cousin ellis

At least the funds should have no trouble beating their benchmark.

Just use the bills AS the mattress.

it seems like there is no where safe. fugly....

I can't imagne it to be a good thing for the ballance sheet if J6P chooses a non bank alternative.  Talk about a bank run.

ow there's a shock.

Looking at the article, I still can't help being stunned by the conventional wisdom that getting mortgage rates down is 1) top priority 2) a good goal 3) an effective way to support for house prices.

Madoff again, and an admission by Christopher Cox:

SEC chairman says agency failed to probe Madoff

The odd thing for me about this AP story is that I had a conversation years ago with the man who was head of the Price, Waterhouse Coopers office in Moscow, and he made some sarcastic remarks about multiple books kept by Russian businessmen. Yeah, they'll show you books, he sneered.

Obviously, the Russians weren't the only ones.

It does several things getting the rates down, but most important, it shifts a lot of notes out of the securities they are in, because they will pay off when they are refinanced into another note

Markel its clear you have no future in politics. Stick with what they currently pay you for. Jeez questions like that... The never!

Why money market when you can get TARP'd? Open your free WaMu checking account today!

From the article:

Rates on some student loans might decrease to the lowest rates in the history of the student loan program

What percentage of students even know what AN APR is, much less what theirs is?

So this is a further squeeze to feed a transfer into Treasuries? Nice play.

Yield says: Down goes Frazier! Down goes Frazier!

Sorry, had to.

C

The Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund has (and always has had I believe) an expence ratio of 0.24%.  Probably still better than your mattress.  The American Century Capital Preservation Fund with identical fund goals as the VTMMF has an expense ratio of 0.47%.  I hope they will be reducing their cost or else I'll be moving my money

Fund co's lower their fees? Ha ha ha ha.. its so not going to happen.

(formerly Elmer Gantry)

sorry - the new name is -

Yes, I'm with you Blackhalo. I'd as soon keep my money at home in a safe as in the bank at 0% interest - or better yet trade the little pieces of paper for some more tangible store of wealth.

The war on prudence continues.

I know of at least one that is waiving the expenses to keep the yield positive. I assume others will have to do this as well.....

Italy is outright purchasing Parmigano-Reggiano in bulk to support prices. Now that's gubbmint cheese I can believe in.

We're all Japanese housewives now!

Does anyone see the irony as I do? A fund like Reserve "breaks the buck" and the financial press goes ballistic; T-bill yields reach zero and the possibility of "negative rates of return" on money market funds is merely a regrettable inevitability. Six of one, meet half dozen of another.

No worries! A negative 50 bps nominal yield is like +10% real at this point.

I hate to say it Nemo but I hope you're right. A good hard deflation would give the prudent savers the last laugh.

We are all Market Leninists now...

The commanding heights will never be the same.

Maybe.

C

Still can't stop laughing about all those characters this summer saying "... the next rate move will be up". HAHAHAHAHAHA.

Ahem, excuse me... HAHAHAHAHAHAHA... okay, heehee... uh... so, any guesses as to how long this policy lasts?

There was a time in the late 90s where Japanese banks charged fees for credit balances- the cost of administering the account was greater than the income earned in the short term paper market. Of course they charged for O/Ds too, so the trick was to keep the balance at zero.

Could be coming here soo

I hate to say it Nemo but I hope you're right. A good hard deflation would give the prudent savers the last laugh.
trail

Sorry never been to the midwest. Dont know any.

.....

certificates of deposit between 4 and 5% are out there and insured fdic or ncua

I am trying to wrap my head around this...these guys get paid big bucks to produce negative returns,but it is a good place to put your money because these are real negative returns and not imaginary positive returns.or something.Would this make better sense if I started drinking embalming fluid instead of scotch?

So they want to force you to spend your money? Invest it? Except what if you have no money? Or plan on holding on what you have because you are afraid of being unemployed?

Comrade Bear --

Still can't stop laughing about all those characters this summer saying "... the next rate move will be up".

Yeah, whatever happened to ipodius?

Addicts do not kick their addictions so easily. He must still be here but under a different name...

Given the time & effort necessary to even move the funds around -and- the possibility of loss (since we've pretty much determined all institutions are at risk) or, at least, extended inaccessibility, why wouldn't people choose mattresses?

What I can't get my head around is hopeless this all is. It's just posturing, dancing, and waiting on the inevitable.

trail writes:
I hate to say it Nemo but I hope you're right. A good hard deflation would give the prudent savers the last laugh.

One thing that americans fail to understand time and again is the concept of "deflation"

When Ben bernanke is printing the money as he is...how can there by any deflation.

If at all there occurs one...it will be short lives (2 months)...he is pushing out cash in truckloads folks.

I don't think now is the time to be chasing yield at flaky off-brand S&Ls. Can we positively be assured that the FDIC can or will pay off? Plus, your principal is insured, not necessarily accrued interest.

Amazing how markets can rally on Fed capitulation, eh?  Had to be uber-bulls trying to force a short-squeeze.

What I can't get my head around is hopeless this all is. It's just posturing, dancing, and waiting on the inevitable

Yes.

It's the definition of madness.

diversification...

...t bills

...gold and silver

...cash in mattress (actually a mayonnaise jar burrined in the back yard a better idea Smile

...lead

and waiting on the inevitable
Which is?

I think deflation is a reduction in cash and credit. All the boatloads or cash getting injected isn't making up for the decline in credit.

Now we begin to see the end of the road for the Fed. There is no going back to the old ways now that you have seen ZIRP.

Now we see if we can maintain the RESERVE STATUS OF THE DOLLAR

CR, I warned you this might get this bad, and now we are here.

There are three ways this can end.

We get massive deflation cushioned by bailout after bailout, and the rest of the world is content to allow the dollar to continue its current role. I give this about 5%.

We get massive inflation resulting from all the money we have printed, and we hit bottom fast enough to keep unemployment under 15% and inflation goes into wages, providing the save the Fed needs. I give this about 15%.

The worst of all outcomes. We have deflation in US assets, but the dollar loses reserve status. Imports and consumption collapse, and everything with a world price is sold based on the world price, and food and necessities cost a fortune in terms of wages. Exports soar, because they generate hard currency.
I still give this 80%.

None of these alternatives are good, but #1 would be the best of a bad lot.

Someday this war's gonna end...

I still can't help being stunned by the conventional wisdom that getting mortgage rates down is 1) top priority 2) a good goal 3) an effective way to support for house prices.
Markel | 12.16.08 - 9:09 pm | #

The laws of uninteded consequeces will show itself before too long.  Eventually the flight to US Treasuries has to end and with it will come inflation and much higher auctions that will compete with mortgate rates for dollars.

He can push the cash out all he wants. What if nobody wants it? What if holding cash is is considered a bad idea?

AllenM,

Agree completely.  #3 looks like a lock.

The other reason I was surprised is that it could create an awkward situation for money market funds where they will have to give people negative returns.

And it's gonna make it a whole lot harder for Bill "stay away from those t-bonds" Gross to hide those 1.5% managment fees behind inflation.

Bet that little scam was fun while it lasted.

What I can't get my head around is hopeless this all is. It's just posturing, dancing, and waiting on the inevitable.

All that matters is getting to the next election.

As for the future?

Pffft...

What do you mean..nobody wants it.

IF you give me cash for 0% , I would take it. I have mortgages to pay for and credit card folks are breathing down my throat.

We are not like japan where we dont want cash at 0% coz we are senile and have cash stashed in our underpants

But is there really downside if the money market funds lose money? Didn't Hank and Ben recently guarantee them? If rates are zero and the fees result in a negative return - a guarantee would have to kick in.. no?

FED ANNOUNCES ZIRP, BONDIES REJOICE.

\tCOUPON\tMATURITY
DATE\tCURRENT
PRICE/YIELD\tPRICE/YIELD
CHANGE\tTIME
3-MONTH\t0.000\t03/19/2009\t0.03 / .03\t0 / .000\t21:00
6-MONTH\t0.000\t06/18/2009\t0.22 / .22\t-0.052 / -.053\t21:00
12-MONTH\t0.000\t12/17/2009\t0.44 / .44\t0.43 / -.024\t21:00
2-YEAR\t1.250\t11/30/2010\t101-04½ / .66\t0-04+ / -.073\t21:00
3-YEAR\t1.125\t12/15/2011\t100-19 / .92\t0-09 / -.095\t21:00
5-YEAR\t2.000\t11/30/2013\t103-07 / 1.33\t0-25 / -.162\t21:02
10-YEAR\t3.750\t11/15/2018\t112-27 / 2.29\t2-01½ / -.219\t21:00
30-YEAR\t4.500\t05/15/2038\t134-12 / 2.78\t4-05 / -.174\t21:04

Oh wait...

Meanwhile JaI think "screamed higher" was his phrase.

FT Alphaville, when they're not crashing, were reporting CDS spreads on the ramp up, incl on sovereigns.

Looks like everyone's expecting a return to normal programming real soon...

C

Imports and consumption collapse, and everything with a world price is sold based on the world price, and food and necessities cost a fortune in terms of wages.

What is a world price?

None of these alternatives are good, but #1 would be the best of a bad lot

The stupidist part of all these is the permanent damage that Bernanke is doing to things which have value in vain attemp to salvage bookkeeping entries.

It's insanity.
.

The danger of NIRP is people asking for piles of green paper. There isn't enough in circulation to cover even fraction of the potential demand.

No takers on my "how long ZIRP" question?  Well, how about "How long before people start wanting to hold real currency vs. the digital stuff?"

The biggest 'blue chip' bubble in the history of the world. Treasury debt yields...

This is simply a flight to quantity. When it reverses, and it will, you will see massive equities rallies along with commodities and PM's. But bread will cost you $5 a loaf and your standard of living will be circa 1979. Inflationary depressions are the worst kind.

The 10 yr T-Note will probably top out at 25% per annum within 6 to 8 years.

Smart money has silver wings and gold feet yet can fly to where it is treated best. We probably won't have protectionism in the 30's sense but currency controls are at least on the radar.

To cop a quote from Monty's 'Holy Grail.'

FLEE FLEE.

For most countries having hard currency is essential. But I do not understand what replaces the dollar? A basket? Or regional money?

Bear,

On the ride home, heard a talking head say "several months", fwiw..

Thaksin,

The Japanese were not interested at borrowing at 0% because deflation guaranteed they'd be paying back yen worth a lot more than those they originally borrowed.  Second, there's no need for capex in a contracting economy.

CR,

If I bury mason jars of cash in the backyard, does the value of my real estate increase?

What if I just tell potential buyers the money is in the backyard a la Madoff?

Deaco

tom stone go long bourbon... kentucky style

Citizen Allen M wrote...
"and food and necessities cost a fortune in terms of wages..."


yes, deflation now

followed by the destruction of the dollar and massive inflatio

I remember reading that the interest rate was 2% during the depression. No one borrowed, even at what was considered a great rate.

I have never seen a more stubborn & foolish bunch than what passes for our leaders these days. They bought into their own fanatasy that house prices never go down, and now by gosh they will destroy anything in their path to keep illusionary house prices up. It's like watching General Sherman in reverse; when these folks are done all that will be left are empty houses.

itpi,

Several months of ZIRP?  That person is clueless, 'cuz this'll be measured in years.

Bernanke represents the Member Banks, the shareholders of the Fed.

The banks have their eye on those MMF deposits.

The next ripoff of the banksters.

followed by the destruction of the dollar and massive inflation
mock turtle | 12.16.08 - 9:36 pm

So long term T and CD's could be a bad thing.

What's the effect of negative money market returns on the short term commercial paper market.

The 10 yr T-Note will probably top out at 25% per annum within 6 to 8 years.
Ross | 12.16.08 - 9:34 pm | #

That seems excessive, but who knows what rate will be needed to service both the national debt and stave off inflation.  If we get to that level I would suspect defalult.

The Fed is trying to boot people out of money markets in the hopes they will invest in AIG, F, GM, Wamu, Indymac....

Bear,

I tend to agree with you; was merely passing along what I'd heard. It'll be interesting what various pundits say over the next few days.

I remember reading that the interest rate was 2% during the depression. No one borrowed, even at what was considered a great rate.
nova | Homepage | 12.16.08 - 9:37 pm | #

A job might have been requiere to qualify.  Oh and 50% down.

Nova, a world price would be the price the rest of the world sets in London and Tokyo and Shanghai. See what Iceland is paying right now after their devaluation.

What do you call a drop to 25% of your foreign purchasing power in your currency?

Imagine the runup to $150 a barrel oil in two weeks?

Imagine $300 a barrel in a month, and a lot of businesses seize up. Imagine scrap dealers moving copper with armed guards.
Imagine the rest of the world watching as we collapse.

Argentina with nuclear weapons.

That is the worst case. This summer was a prelude to the future. That is what most of the deflationists believe can never occur because house prices continue to fall. Why not? Our creditors don't want houses, they want resources.

Someday this war's gonna end...

F
Kona | 12.16.08 - 9:41 pm | #

If one of the other two go down, I am in.

Comrade Allen M:

Yep, I'm planning on #3.

Rice and beans, baby.

Rice and beans.

there was an email joke going around in trading desks in London yesterday that BB was heavily boozed up yesterday...

To take the other side:

Bernanke just announced what was already in place. FF rate was already ~0%, and he already said he was buying Fannie bonds, quantitative easing. What if his action is all for naught?

I've seen world market cap figures all over the place, but so far the fed has expanded its balance sheet by ~3 Trillion? And I understand the rush to gold, but the people who are buying gold are the savers, so who is left to buy gold afterwards?

Italy is outright purchasing Parmigano-Reggiano in bulk to support prices.

Aside from some products with alcohol or meat, i can't think of a much better store of value than Parmigano Regginano. They need a better marketing team.

Thank you AllenM. Deflation,or inflation, when it becomes bad enough then the internal currency is really barter?

B of A charges 0.8% on their MMF -- what the heck do they need 0.8% for to manage a treasury money market fund?

On the retail side, most of banks revenues are tied to Prime, which just went down 75 bps.
I think the yield will go down less than by 75 bps.
Doesn't that mean than the retail net interest income for banks is going to take a hit?

ova,

Yeah, international trade on the barter system.   What happens to import prices when nobody wants dollars?  Keep in mind that even though our "hard" currency represents a fraction of total dollars outstanding, most of it is already in foreign hands.  Chew on that.

@Blackhalo

We are following the British model in the 60's 70's. Natl. health is on the horizon and unions will be supported. We will evolve into a 'strike threat' system even with unemployment at 'officially' 8%.

The system is busted (bout time) and the only analysis to rely on will be from guys who understand inflation and replacement cost accounting. There used to be a few in the 70's but we're all dead now.

Buckle down your knickers kids and get someone you trust to manage your assets. The 3 I trust most are me, myself and I.

so, I need to save about $50K (in today's dollars) for spending over the next 2 years... what do I do? I can certainly open a Canadian account, though I'm not sure if that's "offshore" enough to hedge against inflation in the US... do I open a European or Japanese account? I read on an earlier thread this may be possible through HSBC... I'd be buying with a weak US dollar, so maybe I should time it? Or just act now? The problem is that my questions are too off the wall for most "professional" financial advisors...

Though I suppose another approach would be to buy real estate with rental value, but rents probably couldn't keep up with a significant inflation rate.

Well for all my griping about the Fed earlier today, it sure is nice that bucky is a hot topic once again.

Among all the smarties on this site and many others there is very little consensus on what lies ahead. Inflation. Deflation. Depression. Recovery.

The only consensus I'm getting is that we are in uncharted waters. The place that on the old maps said "here be monsters"

good luck

No international trade when there is no reliable currency to trade in. Is that it? What happened today is going to cause that?

Bottom line is this:

It doesn't matter if the rate is ZIPPO. Banks WILL NOT lend to everyone like they did the last 5 years

AND

people who can borrow, DON'T WANT TO.

ERGO,

since the economy is built on shopping and 3/4 of the shoppers can't get anymore crack and the other 1/4 doesn't want it.

Well...

GAME OVER...

Would...

You...

Like...

To...

Play...

Again?...

MrM.,

That'd be my take...a break for anyone with a cc balance, and possibly ARMs.

In other news, according to Bloomie, $1.407/Euro, Loonie is up, as are oil, gold, and silver.

What do you call a drop to 25% of your foreign purchasing power in your currency?

Imagine the runup to $150 a barrel oil in two weeks?

Imagine $300 a barrel in a month, and a lot of businesses seize up. Imagine scrap dealers moving copper with armed guards.
Imagine the rest of the world watching as we collapse.

That is the worst case.

Citizen AllenM | 12.16.08 - 9:42 pm | #

I tend to disagree.  I see this as a best case if we are able to get there without taking the rest of the world with us.  Competitve labor would result in massive backsourcing.  Recycling becomes cost effective.  Alternative energy becomes viable.  The greens get cold and hungry and might allow a reactor in thier backyard if they get appropriatly compensated.

I do not think it will happen though as I believe we will go down last.  Well, except for the nordics and Belgium.

Nope, most likely loonies, and old coins. Look to Argentina.

People will have to eat, and this government will have no problem issuing ration cards to provide a guaranteed minimum calorie. National ID cards, and control of the populace through sheer poverty. A lot of the erstwhile rich are going to be poor too. The politicians will no longer listen to the lobbyists. That is when things go off the rails.

But hey, I could be wrong. I admit that a well managed bailout program could alleviate enough of the symptoms to make it through to another economy. I just am pessimistic at the polity making the tough choices necessary to avoid disaster.

Someday this war's gonna end...

On the retail side, most of banks revenues are tied to Prime, which just went down 75 bps.

My USAA credit card is tied to prime. Got a letter today that the new rate floor for all cards is 9.9%, an increase for me.

Some rate cut there Ben.

12th,

Ever read Janszen over at iTulip.  The KaPOOM! Theory is a good starting place.  He also wrote a chapter in the book "America's Bubble Economy:  Profit When It Pops", which is also quite good.

Wow. Yes... this is the death of money market funds. I checked my yeilds minus fees.

It's less than what I get at my FDIC insured bank's crappist savings account.

nova,

Yeah, international trade on the barter system. What happens to import prices when nobody wants dollars? Keep in mind that even though our "hard" currency represents a fraction of total dollars outstanding, most of it is already in foreign hands. Chew on that.
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear)

All this stuff seems to be following a predictable pattern. With economies around the globe devolving you'd expect trade to be one of the first things to go as the mediums of exchange become unreliable and nations become more hostile and suspicious.

Didn't we see this happen in the first half of the last century?

Jas was right about 2% on 10 year bill.

I understand AllenM. Hell, I was there 45 min ago. It's all over but what tunes we get to dance to as we go down. I just don't want to believe that. If I am going to believe I want to be able to front run it as much as possible. Believing that I will not be able to is very difficult.

unions will be supported.
Ross | 12.16.08 - 9:48 pm | #

Not a fan of them.  It is a shame B.O. is.  There is something American about a secret ballot.

Jas was right about 2% on 10 year bill.
\t
Morbo | 12.16.08 - 9:53 pm | #

A broken clock is right twice a day...

Nova

CDs dont lock you in

give up 90 days interest and you can always move out in most (not all ) institutions

check the rules

right now im going out 48 months to get between 4 and 5 percent

I do not think it will happen though as I believe we will go down last. Well, except for the nordics and Belgium.
Blackhalo | 12.16.08 - 9:50 pm | #

Not sure what you mean by this, but as a Belgian American who knows a few Belgian bankers, I can say without a doubt that country is completely screwed, worse than us even.

ova,

Fiat is based on faith, as in "full faith and credit".  If people lose faith in the dollar -- the fiat -- they lose faith in fiat itself.  Any currency that isn't backed by hard assets will be toast.

Obama got elected with union money. If he doesn't pay off, no second term.

Something about that Danegeld.

Looks like Connecticut has joined the party.

YoY: Sep-October: -8M
YoY: November by itself: -109M

Blackhalo,
This is not 1930- we will not be the last ones to fall. A lot of weaker places will fall, but a lot will cut themselves loose from the dollar. When that begins, and look to the far east for the first big cracks (read the article in Atlantic Monthly with our largest creditor!!!).

We are standing at a crossroads, and we will have a lot of events that we can't easily foresee starting to cause damage.

The Euro may not survive, and as I commented on Krugman's blog, the BdB in Frankfurt will pull out the old book from 1948 and roll out the next Dmark. There is always a successor currency in the wings, you just have to successfully identify it in time.

Someday this war's gonna end...


Not sure what you mean by this, but as a Belgian American who knows a few Belgian bankers, I can say without a doubt that country is completely screwed, worse than us even.

sanity clause | 12.16.08 - 9:56 pm | #

Absolutely agree.  Fortis is one farked-up operation.

cd

Got a letter today that the new rate floor for all cards is 9.9%, an increase for me.
Currently Accounting | 12.16.08 - 9:50 pm | #

Something not quite right about that.  They make most of thier money on the transactions.  Is USAA in trouble?  What else besides autos, might they have insured?

Citizen AllenM(Excellent) writes:

There are three ways this can end.

Oh could we just take Door #3 and pay Monty Haul 20 bucks to take the goat off our hands already?

Yes, Faith. You can't measure it, sell it, or grow it. That is what money people never understand. They are burning through it faster than they other peoples money.

2 things:

First, the Fed says it is going to buy mortgage backed securities. It will most likely buy them at a discount to what they originally priced at, so the Fed will only be redeeming a fraction of the money that was in the system at the peak.

Second, for the programs to be inflationary for precious metals, the Fed first has to purchase MBS, long bonds, whatever. Then, the seller has to put his proceeds in PMs. Not that this won't happen, but the programs have to get running and be of a significant size.

I think deflation in spite of all Bernanke's attempts could be the most hazardous.

Not sure what you mean by this
sanity clause | 12.16.08 - 9:56 pm | #

Spent some time there when I was in Europe for a time and Brussels was my favorite place outside of Ireland.  So, it is just wishful thinking.

Something not quite right about that.  They make most of thier money on the transactions.  Is USAA in trouble?  What else besides autos, might they have insured?
Blackhalo | 12.16.08 - 9:58 pm | #

USAA is several entities.  USAA Savings Bank, which is their credit card arm, isn't as pristine as the main insurance company and USAA Fed Savings Bank, which provides other banking services.

cd

Fiat is based on faith, as in "full faith and credit".

Fiat was a lot easier from 1945 until the fall of the Soviet Union, when it wasn't so much faith but fear that a currency would actually fall from instability.

Ah, the good ole times.

May what ever god you believe in bless all of you, protect you, and guide you.

The Euro may not survive
Citizen AllenM | 12.16.08 - 9:57 pm | #

I would be surprized by that.

Crap, my last post was supposed to credit J Jansen on the bond story. Haloscan ate my wurds.

Anyhow, the main message was that even if sov CDSs are blowing out, and it might not mean much, and stabilization appears to be returning elsewhere [frankly, show me the money], maybe the corporate sector and its financing is still in a very deep dark hole wondering where the ladder is.

AllenM/Comrade Bear - isn't scenario three where we are already?

nova - love your posts, but international trade on barter just won't work The Thais are trying it with rice for oil. We'll see how that goes.

C

God I miss the D-Mark! Even the Swissie is polluted.

Interesting data point...... I own a few brokered CDs through Fido.  In fact, I just bought some short term ones (3,4,5 months out) last week.

Just went on their websites to see what's available in that same time-frame.   There used to be about 15 different banks offering them.  Rates weren't great (1.75 -> 2.10), but they were there.

Tonight, there are two.   1.35 to 3/2009 and 1.4 to 4/2009.  Next available maturity is 12/2009.

Wow..... just, wow.  

Nova,I put my faith in Murphy.

Ross writes:
Obama got elected with union money. If he doesn't pay off, no second term.


would ypu please give me a reference or link for that?

my understanding is that obama gathered about 700 million this campaign cycle

union money wasnt even 5 percent and union membership money individually donated, wasnt 20 percent

show me im wrong

12th Percentile(Unrated) writes:
The only consensus I'm getting is that we are in uncharted waters. The place that on the old maps said "here be monsters"

The only question is how far down the rabbit hole goes.

The Euro may not survive

I would hope that the Germans value stability in continental Europe more than stability of its currency.
It would be bad if I am wrong on this.

God I miss the D-Mark!
Ross | 12.16.08 - 10:05 pm | #

I still have some.  If the Euro goes down, will they spend?

Sorry Mock,

I guess I didn't mean loads of currency per say but votes to my mind equal money. He made the promises and how he delivers will be fun to watch.

international trade on barter just won't work
Counterpointer | 12.16.08 - 10:05 pm | #

That's kind of the point.  No FOREX whatsoever, no ILOCs... international trade would grind to a halt until a currencies redeemable in hard assets is made available.

Establishing faith (and trust) is not easy or quick, but can be lost in a flash.  Once lost it's not easily regained, either.

Nemo writes:

Shout-out to my idiot cousin ellis

hey this is a hip crowd....

@lawyerliz:

Don't know if you are still around, but I'm sorry about that; I was racing and on deck for leaving, and grabbed the wrong saved URL.

Anyway, here are your bill quotes. And, remarkably, it's even on topic for this thread.

Bloomberg.com:
Government Bonds

Counterpointer(Excellent) writes:
nova - love your posts, but international trade on barter just won't work The Thais are trying it with rice for oil. We'll see how that goes.

"Offset trade," baby.

Ross, private union representation in this country is a miniscule portion of the working population and even smaller of the voting population. They delivered next to nothing in the general, and all but the SEIU didn't even back him in the primaries when they might have mattered.

Ross

i agree with you if it you general opinion that unions expect more from obama, and supported obama way more.. than mccain.

your point is well taken i just felt like a bit overstated

(not like i ever do that Smile

peace

Obama got elected with union money. If he doesn't pay off, no second term.
mock turtle | 12.16.08 - 10:07 pm | #

I might agree with the first part, less about the money than the machiene.  The second sentance though, the economic troubles we now face are going to fall fully on the Republican party for the time being, and B.O. just needs to suck less.

sanity clause writes:
Ross, private union representation in this country is a miniscule..

break those plebes....worthless krill anyways.

USAA letter:

"Dear Cardholder(s): Today's challenging economic environment is increasing costs for many businesses, including USAA. While USAA remains strong and growing, it is necessary for USAA Savings Bank to implement a minimum annual interest rate on our credit card accounts. This change is based on current economic conditions, not your account history with USAA or your credit score..."

If I don't like it, I can cancel the card. I wonder if they are trying to beat the new Fed regulations/ or coming legislation on cards?

Looks like we will all be Scrooge McDuck swimming in our worthless cash. Is that how he managed it.

Blackhalo, you should talk to some Germans and read what they really think of the Med countries and their black hole of finance. They will bail on that fiasco sooner or later.

They will drop the Euro.

Someday this war's gonna end...

OK I surrender. Expand the term union to all working stiffs weather or not they pay dues. The former middle class?

I'm not anti union. As I've said before, if I were a grad student, labour law would be a good choice for a career.

It has to work...We give the market NO other choice!....BB

Blackhalo

while i agree that more reublicans believe in "less, or no regulation" than democrats

just the same, many many democrats drank the kloolaid along with their repub brethren

obama however, was not one of the believers in, "we dont need no stinkin regulation" as i understand it

so rather than dem verses repub

i see it as, this is obamas chance, but , americans are not noted for patience

obama better turn the corner in our years or, uh...could be good bye

If I don't like it, I can cancel the card. I wonder if they are trying to beat the new Fed regulations/ or coming legislation on cards?
Currently Accounting | 12.16.08 - 10:17 pm | #

If you don't carry a balance, it don't matter...

cd

Union payback?  Let's see what's left of the UAW next year.

The largest union representation by far is in public service, and that's the next great sector for widespread RIFs, too.

I am with others; I qualify for a work out with my bank mortgage, but for some reason all of the options increase the monthly payment.

It appears to me that banks are doing everything possible to maximize their income right now.

Start a carry trade, borrow in dollars, invest in JGB's!!

okay then...by keeping my money in a MMF, I am creating employment. Wo Ho!

I was out in back country all day and come back in to communication to find that the Fed has declared that we are screwed economically and the market is up 350 points. So they cut rates to zero, who is going to borrow? This looks like a major pump job on the market. Who the hell is buying?

I've been in a quandary. If treasuries are the next bubble, stocks are bound to fall further, there is no decoupling with the US (if we go down, everyone goes with us) and bonds are toast, what does one do if their only investment choices are:
Treasuries
Agency bonds
US large cap
US small cap
International
This is the govt Thrift Savings Plan if it sounds familiar to anyone. Can't pull it out and you get 5 choices. I've been in treasuries for the last year but now it seems there is nowhere to hide.

I must be better than Currently Accounting cuz my USAA credit card letter said mine just went to 7.75%.

Its still fucking b.s.

If you don't carry a balance, it don't matter...

I don't, so it doesn't. But the irony is that market interest rates are RISING while Ben cuts...

Blackhalo writes:
Obama got elected with union money. If he doesn't pay off, no second term.
mock turtle | 12.16.08 - 10:07 pm | #


blackhalo

i didnt write ... obama got elected with union money ...

that was a line i lifted from another poster so i could comment back

obama got a LOT OF MONEY from a huge variety of sources

many small donors, but not all small

he got lots of big money too

The "real" market just like the banks NOT lending is telling you to stay out and things are worse...much...much...WORSE. Look for P/E ratios to tank next year taking stock prices down with them. Hold your nose because the more Ben stirs the $hit...the more it stinks.

Ross - I don't think union members expect to 'get' anything in particular, as much as not losing any ground they now have.

If treasuries are the next bubble
Anonymous | 12.16.08 - 10:19 pm | #

"Next"?????  There's no "next" about it.

Right on Money Man. Not the best image to contemplate but I think you are making the right call.

CR writes: Just checked some money market funds, and for a few of them the expenses are now greater than the yield - so you'd do better with a mattress.

Really!?

Wow. I reckon we best light out for the territories, huh Jim?

I was thinking of paying off my mortgage to get the 5.25% I’m paying the bank.

I put a good deal of equity down on my house, so I would rather put what I pay in a mortgage in a good stock(s) for a better return.

I’ve been weighing my options.

Hanging by a thread writes:
I was out in back country all day and come back in to communication to find ...the market up 350 points.... This looks like a major pump job on the market. Who the hell is buying?
Hanging by a thread | Homepage | 12.16.08 - 10:19 pm | #


i guess (warning this is a guess) that the primary dealers and IBs are engages in a daisy chain

a sells to b

b sells to c
c sells to d
d sells to e
e sells to f
f sells to a

all for one a few cents more per share more than they bought it for...

and nobody is out more than a few cents per share

and everything goes up

I don't, so it doesn't. But the irony is that market interest rates are RISING while Ben cuts...
Currently Accounting | 12.16.08 - 10:20 pm | #

I'd like to think that it's prudent pricing of risk that is at play...makes more sense than just having rates chasing the spreads.  USAA's rates are still relatively low in the industry.

cd

The largest union representation by far is in public service, and that's the next great sector for widespread RIFs, too.
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) | 12.16.08 - 10:19 pm | #

Teachers, maybe?  I like teachers, not thier union.  They fight tooth and nail against any form of accountablity, competition or merit pay.

One thing that americans fail to understand time and again is the concept of "deflation"

When Ben bernanke is printing the money as he is...how can there by any deflation.

If at all there occurs one...it will be short lives (2 months)...he is pushing out cash in truckloads folks.
\t Thaksin | \t \t \t \t12.16.08 - 9:27 pm | #

--

I know this was a ways back, but wasn't really addressed.  Thaksin, when you step back and look at the size of this unwind, the gov can print dollars for a very very long time before even hinting at inflation in the least.  We are talking Trillions and beyond.  The amount of money being destroyed everyday is mind boggling.  And pretty damned scary.

 

Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) writes:
If treasuries are the next bubble
Anonymous | 12.16.08 - 10:19 pm | #

"Next"????? There's no "next" about it.

Yes, yes I know. I'm feeling trapped.

If treasuries are the next bubble
Anonymous | 12.16.08 - 10:19 pm | #

What does the "POP" look like?

Another disgusting image Mock Turtle, but again probably right on since the goal is to screw the little guy. This may suck one more set of widows and orphans in to the pit.

What events can force CBs to rethink "reserve status of the dollar"?

Breaking news? Turns out that Bernie Madoff's neice Shana, the company compliance attorney, married into the SEC. This caca is getting shakespearean.

Ponzi Schemer's Label-Whoring Niece Married SEC Lawyer - Bernie Madoff - Gawker

REBear writes:
What events can force CBs to rethink "reserve status of the dollar"?

Promise you, they will do whatever it takes. The reserve status of the dollar? You're so far away from the nut cutting...have you ever put a rubber band on a pig?

mine just went to 7.75%
my poor savings account | 12.16.08 - 10:20 pm | #

Yeah, I saw someone post a few threads back, that his floor was 6%.  Looks like risk pricing...

What events can force CBs to rethink "reserve status of the dollar"?

Cubs winning the world series?

Go long- toilet paper.

"Breaking news? Turns out that Bernie Madoff's neice Shana, the company compliance attorney, married into the SEC. This caca is getting shakespearean."

Never mind Shana. Read what Christopher Cox is saying about his own agency. If that is the problem, then mistaken economic policies may be the lesser worry.

Hmmm... if I have a negative-am loan and rates go negative, does that mean that if I don't make a payment my principal reduces????
I think I see the road to riches here.

hell with mattresses, I decided to store it in Bollinger Special Cuvee. Now if only my favorite single vineyard zins would drop their prices as well

lawn grass writes:
Go long- toilet paper.


dont have to

in a pinch just use dollar bills

is it too early to start in on SHTF talk? Because I scored three boxes of 7.62x54r for $10 today, which feels like a pretty good deal.I also found out ill be graduating from CC this semester- which does not seem like as good a deal considering the relative value of a college degree in an economy where it is increasingly likely that the best jobs will involve shovels.

"What events can force CBs to rethink "reserve status of the dollar"?"

  1. Viable, sustainable alternative.
  2. General re-denomination of key productive commodities in other than USD.
  3. Reduced need to support US import (into US) international trade monetary flows.
  4. General willingness to accept the wrath and offensive responses of the US. (Economic policy is this century's foreign policy)

Cal Pers gets their ass handed to them...if only they would have read here a few years ago...:

Risky, Ill-Timed Land Deals Hit Calpers - WSJ.com

" Feckless Ness writes:
Why money market when you can get TARP'd? Open your free WaMu checking account today!
Feckless Ness | 12.16.08 - 9:10 pm | # "

If I open a WaMu account and get my TARP money, can Congress cap my pay?

i guess (warning this is a guess) that the primary dealers and IBs are engages in a daisy chain

~~~~

The Clearing House LLC ... Board Members

Board Relationships\tPrimary Company\tAge
James Dimon\t\t191 Relationships\tJPMorgan Chase & Co\t51
Victor J. Menezes\t\t157 Relationships\tCitigroup, Inc.\t58
Norman R. Bobins\t\t156 Relationships\tLaSalle Bank National Association\t65
Kenneth D. Lewis\t\t35 Relationships\tBank of America Corporation\t61
Thomas A. Renyi\t\t40 Relationships\tDPM Mellon\t61

Just a few of the daisies in the daisy chai

"[Madoff] caca is getting shakespearean."

All the actors are not on stage yet, or even in the playbill. This is going to be a monster.

Christopher Cox is saying about his own agency.
Pavel Chichikov | 12.16.08 - 10:36 pm | #

Ah, yes.  The third stooge of the apocolypse...  I find it hard to belive much insightful from that direction as he seem to be of the "Brownie" or Harriet Myers type.

New Amex platinum offer in the post today, plus the weekly Capital One offer, all into the home shredder. Maybe I should be more proactive and call these fkrs and say cease and desist? Anyone with experience of that? Do they actually do it?

Anyhow, have had a week of wondering whether risk denial is personal, sociological, structural, or inherent in risk-taking businesses and bureaucracies.

No conclusions. Not good ones anyway.

But it reminded me of a trade deal I was doing in the Middle Kingdom a decade ago - it was mostly lined up until I found a potentially significant flaw in the deal.

Went to see my main counterpart - good relationship, lots of beers together under our belt, on the road to mutual performance rewards in getting this through, but laid the cards on the table.

He was incensed. Said something fairly theatrical like, "Weishenme ne??! Weishenme ne changdan zhei xie wenti!?!?", ie why, why are you shouldering this problem?

I was pretty frank, and had some pithy Beijing dialect phrases to throw back, which was well appreciated.

Agreed in the end to "study the problem", but had we not had that conversation, we would have got a sh*tty deal.

C

Not to troll the union thing, but I like to make it clear that many union members (surprisingly many)vote Republican, and even Libertarian, because of their particular hot-button issues. Union members are by no means a solid block. I speak from experience. We are not easily catagorized.

" Flic writes:
I know of at least one that is waiving the expenses to keep the yield positive. I assume others will have to do this as well.....
Flic | 12.16.08 - 9:17 pm | # "

How does that improve solvency?

So, which financial funds are going to call a spade a spade and rename their offerings as 'negavestments'?

"Give us your money and we'll lose it less than the other guy"

"hell with mattresses, I decided to store it in Bollinger Special Cuvee."

Say what you will about Deflationary Jane; she has good taste.

if only they would have read here a few years ago
crispy&cole | Homepage | 12.16.08 - 10:38 pm | #

if only I'D read here a few years ago.  I had an idea something was rotten, but underestimated the scope.  A little more doom and gloom from the regulars here might have pushed me to go all cash, when I was seriously considering it, and just needed that little nudge.

Nova, if still there, the world price is ultimately what the various good/commodity providers believe is most stable. From 10000 feet up, it would appear to be a seamless transition. Up close is a total clusterf*** as it happens. You can plan out the wazoo, but how the plan works is different...

In short term, that could be the yen. Also bear in mind that Japan, S Korea and China are now working together in a financial ministry sense and that China is now the #1 global producer of gold and is going to ramp up its gold purchases. So longer term might be some regional currency (Asian?) with PM backing.

Memories of a long-ago mp comment re regional currency rise...just can't recall what screw-up prompted that.

On the retail side, most of banks revenues are tied to Prime, which just went down 75 bps.
MrM | 12.16.08 - 9:46 pm | #

If my student loans are at prime -1, does this mean I'm now making .25% on that money?  Wink

CALPERS...those who fail firrst get bailed.

The worst of all outcomes. We have deflation in US assets, but the dollar loses reserve status. Imports and consumption collapse, and everything with a world price is sold based on the world price, and food and necessities cost a fortune in terms of wages. Exports soar, because they generate hard currency.
I still give this 80%.

Citizen AllenM | 12.16.08 - 9:29 pm | #

Let's take that apart a bit. To help me figure it out.

The dollar is not about to lose its reserve status because there are no real alternatives. This assumes, I think safely, that the decline in the USD will be somewhat orderly. No panic out of dollars because where would you go if you were a foreign central bank? Or where would you want to go, for that matter.

Deflation in US assets that are dependent upon debt. Houses, cars, boats, etc etc. This would be limited by increases in imported inputs.

Inflation in things that are imports or have a substantial import component, and that are necessities of life. Oil, food, other consumer staples. Anything not manufactured here, which covers a lot of territory. Imports do collapse.

Exports flourish, because the USD becomes ever cheaper vs. other currencies. Devaluation of the USD must be supported by foreign central banks because it is the only way to keep international commerce somewhat flowing.

Wages come under severe pressure. How this nets out against cost of living is an open question, but it seems likely that wages will lose ground in real terms. Housing is the big question mark here. Energy and food seem destined for higher prices due to the import component. Housing will become cheaper UNLESS the government effort to keep it afloat or rising succeeds, which it may.

US is forced to cut back on its military and most other programs. Social unrest at home and possible military adventurism by other states - esp. China (Taiwan, other?) - leading to a markedly diminished role of the US on the international stage.

Stock market and gold should do well, Treasuries may have seen the best of it for now. Corporate bond market, and all other forms of credit, to remain relatively weak. Companies start to go for public equity offerings rather than debt offerings.

I'll go with 80% or higher as well. In a nutshell, the dollar is going down ... Bernanke will make sure of that. The consequences flow from that.

Historical occasion, today.

Cal Pers gets their ass handed to them...if only they would have read here a few years ago...:

And I can guarantee the Cali state budget impact from the payroll increases are not being factored properly. Throw another couple billion per yer on the pile.

"Economic policy is this century's foreign policy"

I think Louis XIV and Cardinal Richelieu would tell you that economic policy is many centuries' foreign policy...

But after reading the Atlantic and the Chinese banker lecturing the US on all of our faults... um, hello - I've been to Shanghai, and I've seen the construction projects they've been throwing up, and the not-terribly busy mausoleum-like malls where the Chinese domestic consumer is supposedly spending their money... and the fact that they're spending 100s of billions of dollars in their own stimuli, etc. The last thing they want at this point is the dollar devaluing against them in a substantial way.

The Germans aren't operating from a position of strength - Merkel is already buckling, and economic pressures on them are going to be even more severe when the Poland/Hungary disasters start to really get going, making their political positions even weaker.

Japan is showing some bad signs - if nothing else, the Nikkei looks to be phase-locked with Wall Street, and their auto sector is suffering domestically as well as in the export markets.

So, as I personally struggle with betting on deflation vs. inflation... this is where I'm torn. If this is the '30s, then is everyone screwed, just in different ways? If we're supposed to be Argentina, then what would be our Miami?

REBear writes:
What events can force CBs to rethink "reserve status of the dollar"?

Promise you, they will do whatever it takes. The reserve status of the dollar? You're so far away from the nut cutting...have you ever put a rubber band on a pig?

Volker the Viking | 12.16.08 - 10:33 pm | #


No offense, Volker, but what the hell did you just say? What does that even mean?

" nova writes:
What I can't get my head around is hopeless this all is. It's just posturing, dancing, and waiting on the inevitable.
nova | Homepage | 12.16.08 - 9:26 pm | # "

Yes, we are all waiting for Godot.

. . . Except Godot is Cthulu.

How did Japans stock mrket do?

If the developed countries don't move toward a new currency regime, I'm confident we'll end up with regional trading blocs.

In fact, some are becoming impatient and there's already evidence of that occurring. Whether it truly comes to fruition depends largely on what's happening now.

LOL thanks MP. very yummy stuff! You wouldn't believe what I got it for by the case. If this is deflation, I can't wait to see what happens to the price of Louboutins. >; )

mp -

Asia is ripe for regional trading, albeit at a greatly reduced level. EU countries, maybe ... but there will be lots of internecine warfare to sort out. Russia and China? stir in South America? Seems reasonable, especially given the carve-out of the US from the Latin American summit.

But the US is still a BIG market.

I don't understand how doom & gloom = China/Japan/S. Korea rescuing everyone. How are countries that are still saver/export-driven economies after substantial effort to stop being saver/export economies supposed to replace the US as global consumers?!? Especially during a period in which the US is in economic mud, along with most of Europe and Latin America?

And please, 100 million Chinese in coastal cities may be what we see here in the US, but that's

I don't think we should all be calling the USD down for the count yet, until we have a degree of conviction that these T-bond prices are being caused by some sort of extreme, synthetic domestic demand for the paper.

If that is the case, when the cause of that demand subsides and an unwind is required, then the near term for the USD may be a bleak as the last couple of days are suggesting.

Had to be uber-bulls trying to force a short-squeeze.
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) | 12.16.08 - 9:27 pm | #

I have to concur.  Not enough volume or movement to make it convincing.  I had to add to my short positon.  Still, I expect record levels of volitility until either the shorts or longs go broke.

How did Japans stock mrket do?

arw | 12.16.08 - 10:50 pm | #

Japan was not hell bent on monetizing like Bernanke is.

Pavel: The comments on the wsj article are enlightening as well:

"In 1992 the SEC brought charges against a Florida accounting firm, Avellino and Beines, for selling over $440 million in unregistered notes to investors. The complaint mentioned nary a word that Bernie Madoff was managing this money. The lawsuit was then sealed in the Federal District Court in the Southern District of New York. A trustee was put in charge of the money, Mr. Lee Richards. Representing Mssrs. Avellino and Beines was the former head of the SEC in NYC, Mr. Ira “Ike” Sorkin.
Now, flash forward to today: Bernie Madoff’s case is filed in the Southern District of New York, which has been soft on Wall Street crimes over the past decade. The very same trustee is put in charge of the records by the SEC: Mr. Lee Richards. The very same lawyer is representing Madoff, Ira Sorkin."

"You're so far away from the nut cutting...have you ever put a rubber band on a pig?"

Guess you need to be a farmer to get that reference! LOL!

these T-bond prices are being caused by some sort of extreme, synthetic domestic demand for the paper.
Austin Tex | 12.16.08 - 10:53 pm | #

I do not for a second belive it has anyting to do with any domestic demand.  Until proven otherwise, I am convinced that it is BIG money forign interests fleeing to a percived source of saftey in a volitile and uncertian environment.

@nova

Nova, if you're out there, I left a response for you on the DataQuick thread.

mp:

That all-caps regional currency "rant" you put on that Saturday afternoon has stayed with me.

Noted that S America is having it's own little klatch without the US for a first. Would that be one? Doubtful since I don't see Brazil hooking up it's wagon to Argentina. Oil-rich Venezuela perhaps.

Some get put off that politics enters into this site and I understand why. But occurred to me that the formal name of the discipline used to be "Political Economics" as I recall.

Guess you need to be a farmer to get that reference!
Sardonic | 12.16.08 - 10:57 pm | #

I have heard of that practice with regard to cattle but pigs?  Why?

What do you mean..nobody wants it.

IF you give me cash for 0% , I would take it. I have mortgages to pay for and credit card folks are breathing down my throat.

Right now the banks mortgage and credit card arms are writing their acceptance criteria for 0% money. Here is the pseudo-code:

If Need_0%_Cash = True Then
Reject Application
Else
Accept Application
End If

The Japanese enacted a 20% interest rate cap on consumer loans in 2006. The fact that consumer were paying as much as 30% interest rates after a decade of ZIRP should destroy the myth that 0% means free money for J6P.

have you ever put a rubber band on a pig?"

Guess you need to be a farmer to get that reference! LOL!
Sardonic | 12.16.08 - 10:57 pm |

It's how you castrate a hog. Rubber band, more like O-ring. You put it into a special tool that looks like a pair of pliers, then squeeze it apart. I think you get the idea.

More Board Members from Clearing House LLC

Juergen Fitschen\t\t207 Relationships\tDeutsche Bank AG\t59
Youssef Nasr\t\t105 Relationships\tHSBC Holdings plc\t53
William Harrison Jr.\t\t257 Relationships\tMerck & Co. Inc.\t64
Richard Kovacevich\t\t72 Relationships\tWells Fargo & Company\t64
G. Thompson\t\t72 Relationships\tFederal Reserve Bank of Richmond\t57
Martin Glynn\t\t154 Relationships\tMF Global Ltd\t56
Richard Davis\t\t48 Relationships\tUS Bancorp

sbalive:

Don't confuse global currency with global consumers.

It's because they don't consume but save that their economies have some traction here. Not all tied up with fictitious debt.

And has anyone factored in the demographic crunch in Japan/Korea/Europe (not to mention Russia... China might be slightly safer with in-migration from regions and reversal of one child, but they may have issues as well)... In fact, one of the reasons why Germany is leaning conservative fiscally is the recognition that they're going to start looking like a Big 3 manufacturer, but at a national level - if they don't look like that already.

I'm as down on US prospects as anyone right now, but I can't see a way to move from US$ standard to regional standards... is China really a lot wealthier than the US? (If we ignore the fact that the Chinese military has concentrated a lot of their wealth within themselves.)

mp:

Thanks, now the pig/nutcutting makes sense.

I've shoveled stalls and dodged angry bulls, but never dealt with that one...

@homedad3: yeah, but the reason we could have Bretton Woods II and all that was in large part because of the US role as consumers... so you're not going to follow that model and shift it to some other currency... you have to imagine some other kind of model, and there are severe structural problems in most of the candidate stable countries (Germany, Japan, China) regardless of even the saving vs. consumption issue.

"Exports flourish, because the USD becomes ever cheaper vs. other currencies."

If they are mercantilist, their exports dry up, their people are home sitting on their ass unemployed without unemployment insurance just what in the hell makes you think that.
Trade wars baby, protectionism just like in the 30's

"Trade wars baby, protectionism just like in the 30's"

Perhaps. But they still need what importing capacity we will have. I think, and fervently hope, that cooler heads will prevail - at least w.r.t. our major export markets.

the special pliers have a name: Emasculators.

I feel like the anti Jas/anti Mish.

What people have to remember is that confidence is the key, and what is starting to disappear is confidence in the ability of the US Government to successfully manage this crisis.

Not just confidence, but utter confidence in the purchasing power of assets denominated in dollars. The crisis in trade and letters of credit is the first big sign that the crisis is running far deeper than a contraction in the US economy.

Nobody would care that the US economy is finally having a recession, what they care about is the utter panic and disbelief in the actions of the politicians in charge.

That article in the Atlantic Monthly confirmed my Weltanschauung that we are in a path to a dollar crisis.

That crisis is tied up intimately with international trade, the dollar, and the glut of treasury bonds that sustained the BWII system.

That failure will have consequences beyond almost anything that people here are contemplating.

Now, I have a cold, and I am going to bed, good night all.

Someday this war's gonna end...

deflationary jane writes:
the special pliers have a name: Emasculators.

deflationary jane | 12.16.08 - 11:07 pm | #

Oh yeah, now I remember.

Used to have a girlfriend that carried one in her purse...

Anonymous makes a good point.

Final demand.

Everything proceeds from there. The US consumer as buyer of first resort is no longer confident enough to buy. The EU consumer is almost at that point. This is why the entire supply signal and production chain is breaking down.

In a JIT provision environment, dislocations at key points, whether credit, demand, supply, or failures mean the whole system is thrown into chaos.

Bad sh*t happens next.

C

There is nothing more dangerous than a woman who drinks Bollinger and carries a pair of emasculators in her purse.

Conjure says, "Meow."

Around 3% on my CD, and 3.25% on our equity line. We're breaking even.

But then, we use credit unions...

"at least w.r.t. our major export markets."

When EUR was 1.25 (about 2 wks ago), Mar corn (export corn, no crop in Mar) was around 3.50. Now, EUR is 1.40, Mar corn is 4.00. About the same percentage move in both.

Aside from intellectual/entertainment exports, which have virtually no marginal cost, the relative price of bulk foods, and heavy machinery, bear watching along with the USD's movements.

It goes without saying: the US .NEEDS. exports.

As an aside before I retire and thank God that I didn't marry the ex-girlfriend.

This stuff absolutely makes me crazy.

But sometimes a few days off from this is healthy, too.

And there are worse things than a financial cluster...

Good night.

ps to sbalive: have to think about the BW II comment and whether it was because we were the consumers.

In a JIT provision environment, dislocations at key points, whether credit, demand, supply, or failures mean the whole system is thrown into chaos.

Bad sh*t happens next.

Counterpointer | 12.16.08 - 11:12 pm | #

Yes. No one is talking about JIT. That is huge.

anonymous writes:
What events can force CBs to rethink "reserve status of the dollar"?

Cubs winning the world series?
anonymous | 12.16.08 - 10:34 pm

Well we don't have to worry about that then.

sba,

I spent an ugly 3 week business trip in china a decade ago and saw much of the crazy building as well. These tiny towns surrounded by ag land were sprouting huge concrete office buildings and then left unfinished, just abandoned. The walled compound factories and the toll roads to no where - were those still around or did these dirt towns fill in to become cities?

Used to have a girlfriend that carried one in her purse...
homedad43 | Homepage | 12.16.08 - 11:10 pm | #

That is an odd place to keep a wedding ring... Wink

"The largest union representation by far is in public service, and that's the next great sector for widespread RIFs, too.
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) | 12.16.08 - 10:19 pm | #"

"Teachers, maybe? I like teachers, not thier union. They fight tooth and nail against any form of accountablity, competition or merit pay."

Here in California the largest union is...wait for it...the state prison guards.

California Corrections has taken up a larger share of the budget here than education since at least the mid 1990s. Makes you think, doesn't it?

Asia just figured out Uncle Ben stuck a fork in thier ass.

AlanM: What people have to remember is that confidence is the key, and what is starting to disappear is confidence in the ability of the US Government to successfully manage this crisis.

Bang on. I think back to September and Paulson's deer in the head lights look and bended knee to Pelosi and GWB's "This suckers going down". Both iconic body language and statements that told the world that they don't have any confidence themselves. If the politicians and banksters don't demonstrate confidence and resolve, we are worse off than the '30s. I think society had more hope for the future then than we do now.

How do we get our groove back?

"The Madoffs were also hefty donors to political candidates. In total, the Madoff family has donated more than $380,000 to political candidates, parties and political action committees since 1993, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. The giving skewed largely Democratic, although donations were made to several Republicans, including scandal-ridden Rep. Vito J. Fossella (R-N.Y.)."

The Moar You Know, and they're as powerful a union as this country has. They wielded a lot of influence in the law-and-order movement, including three strikes, mandatory minimums, and the war on drugs--all reliable producers of prisoners.

Is it too early for thread music posts??

Here's American Dreaming:

YouTube -

C

Makes you think, doesn't it?
The Moar You Know | 12.16.08 - 11:16 pm | #

Makes me a little ill.  But that is a shitty job that I would never want to do, and one of the few places where I could be eaisily convinced of the need for a union.

The dollar is not about to lose its reserve status because there are no real alternatives.
This reads a lot like that B movie classic, "You're not going to shoot me. You don't have the guts."
It seems to work about half the time.

Ah emasculators.Brings back memories of a summer in the country as teenager from the city.Mountain oysters,a snipe hunt,and henweighs.and a brunette.

Click, click, click.

That's the sound that eminates from a handgun when the last bullet has been fired, and fear is the expression when the enemy is still heading towards you.

candidate stable countries (Germany, Japan, China)

Stating the obvious:

Germany doesn't have a currency anymore, and the EU couldn't survive a new DMK;

China doesn't really have a currency, or an economy outside the purview of the PRC government and the Party, for that matter. State fascists are too risky a bunch for an international reserve currency;

Japan doesn't have sufficient power, economic, political, or military, to provide a base for an IR currency.

That's part of the problem: warts and all, there just isn't any other USA, at least right now, or just yet.

Well, finally going for ZIRP. All those yen can go home now. Japan exported the bulk of their inflation to us where our clever banksters decided to blow exactly the same kind of bubble that threatened to deflate their economy and forced the BOJ to ZIRP. History rhymes again.

The Fed can stop this deflation and I predict they will. Creditors are going to be bled and debtors will get a slow motion inflation fired Jubilee. There really is no other reasonable choice anyway. A worldwide deflation will kill way too many people and will lead to world war, which simply can't be allowed in a nuclear world.

Fears of hyperinflation are misplaced, the Fed has got its hands full fighting the deflation, and hyperinflation is a very remote possibility. The Fed's strategy will work but it will take some time to really take hold, March or April '09 at least.

That's the sound that eminates from a handgun when the last bullet has been fired, and fear is the expression when the enemy is still heading towards you.

That's what the shotgun is for Smile

Congress passes historic bill. Saving money is now AGAINST THE LAW.

The Fed's strategy will work but it will take some time to really take hold, March or April '09 at least.

~~~~

Posting from the Fed ?

Ben ? Is that you ?

"With the Fed having come this far, markets would be hugely disappointed if the BOJ keeps rates on hold at 0.3 percent this week. The rate differential could trigger sharp yen rises and push down stocks, reviving the market crisis in October," said Hirokata Kusaba, senior economist at Mizuho Research Institute.

"The BOJ needs to do something and I'm sure they are aware of that. It's likely to cut rates, even to zero, this week. It needs to avoid keeping Japanese rates higher than those of the U.S."

In further pressure, chief government spokesman Takeo Kawamura, a cabinet minister, said the BOJ must support the economy.

"The abnormal rise in the yen could affect export industries and I hope that the BOJ will make a comprehensive consideration, including those factors, to decide its monetary policy," Kawamura told a news conference.

BOJ FOCUS-Fed move pushes BOJ towards rate cut, easing steps
| Reuters

Oh-Yeah, a zero intrest rate world. Beggar thy neighbor

Creditors are going to be bled and debtors will get a slow motion inflation fired Jubilee.

Uhmm, most those debtors are flat broke and going bust.  When will their wages go up?

Asia just figured out Uncle Ben stuck a fork in thier ass.
Anonymous | 12.16.08 - 11:17 pm | #

Yessirree.  Â¥88.64 and headed towards the fields.

cd

Mexico said on Tuesday it viewed any action to stabilise oil prices as positive but did not offer to cut oil production to support the efforts of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, according to an energy ministry statement.
Mexico does not offer oil output cut to help OPEC
| Reuters

The ships are hitting the beach.

While regulators screwed around with Martha Stewart they could have been using their massive resources to look at Madoff and probably a dozen or more others. They had information with much more potential investor damage about Madoff than they ever had on Stewart's lack of business judgment.

"The Fed can stop this deflation"

There's a couple of things that have to happen.

  1. Wealth has to stop being destroyed, and that takes stability in their prices, and that takes buyers. And buying takes faith.
  2. The banks have to start lending. And they have no private incentive to do so, regardless of the public policy exigencies.

Someone the other night equated the TARP to the old story of the scorpion (banks) getting the turtle (Fed) to give him a ride acoss the river:

Half way across, in spite of his promises to behave prudently, the scorpion stings the turtle, and as they are both struggling, dying, the turtle cries "Why'd you sting me? Now we're both going to drown!" Scorpion says "What else could I do? I'm a scorpion"

Good night.

Mexico said on Tuesday

~~~~

Mexico is already in compliance ... production there is headed down sharply ...

Thaksin:
"When Ben bernanke is printing the money as he is...how can there by any deflation."

You can get no inflation or deflation even in rising money supply when the velocity of money slows and offsets the increased amount of money in the system.

if the whole economy was $10 and that was spent 10 times in a year, the velocity of money is 10x and GDP = $100. If supply increased to $15 and velocity went down to 5x, you would have a $65 GDP and probably not inflation, but deflation. Velocity matters also, and velocity has reduced a ton recently.

that's what the books say anyway.

whoops, $75 GDP, so i'm not a quant guy.

whoops, $75 GDP, so i'm not a quant guy.
\t craig | \t \t \t \t12.16.08 - 11:41 pm | #


bwhahaha!  Nice.

Rmember back, when we used to care about the TED spread? Ahhhh the good old days.

Creditors are going to be bled.

I notice, and not for the first time, that I must have a fundamental disagreement with some posters here about who holds power in this society.

craig --

whoops, $75 GDP, so i'm not a quant guy.

I would say you are overqualified by modern hedge fund standards.

Interesting Times - but, but, that G20 statement sounded so, so, umm, cooperative...!?

I though bggr thy neighbor was dead?

If the opposite is true, umm, not good?

C

Velocity matters also, and velocity has reduced a ton recently.
that's what the books say anyway.
\t craig | \t \t \t \t12.16.08 - 11:40 pm | #

Sliced in half (at least)
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Humpty Dumpty On Inflation

The dollar is not about to lose its reserve status because there are no real alternatives.
fafhrd | 12.16.08 - 11:25 pm | #

LMAO!  The question isn't fiat vs. fiat, it's fiat vs. asset-backed.

I have a question. I have my IRA cash in (Columbia Treasury Reserves) NDLXX with a 0.80% expense ratio. It is payiny 0% and I am wondering if it can go negative. What would be a good place to park this cash where it would be safe, liquid and not get a negative return rate?

"LMAO! The question isn't fiat vs. fiat, it's fiat vs. asset-backed."

And who in this world can back their currency with sufficient assets, said currency to be in wide circulation, readily accepted in international commerce?

NDLXX with a 0.80% expense ratio. It is payiny 0% and I am wondering if it can go negative.

Sorry to bear the bad news.  It's already negative.

The inflation/deflation debate here is too often framed nationally, but the U.S. is not a financial island.  We can be deflating domestically while still inflating internationally.  Allen M alluded to this earlier.

craig- nicely done, someone who admits a quant mistake. I likum, likum a lot.

If only the rest of the industry had been so open.

Let alone engineering entire dark pools on dubious bases. This one has yet to pop, but pop it will.

Fuse lit, blue touch paper burning, stand well clear...

C

And who in this world can back their currency with sufficient assets, said currency to be in wide circulation, readily accepted in international commerce?
Anoddamoose | 12.16.08 - 11:51 pm | #

Hoopajoops, LTD might be able to assist you in this undertaking.

hell breaks loose when Soc Security recipients get a -COLA

LMAO! The question isn't fiat vs. fiat, it's fiat vs. asset-backed.

~~~~

Or a near complete collapse ... where very little gets traded.

And who in this world can back their currency with sufficient assets, said currency to be in wide circulation, readily accepted in international commerce?
Anoddamoose | 12.16.08 - 11:51 pm | #

I can back the new world reserver currency with all my assets right now.  You can audit me right after auditing the FED and their member banks "assets".

DAMNIT! That's it! I'm pulling my money out of everything and converting it into .........converting it into..............something and hauling ass to...........to........somewhere and then I'm going to............Really I guess my only option is to start drinking heavy as I did when I was younger,but that;s so hard on me.............TAKE ME NOW!

hell breaks loose when Soc Security recipients get a -COLA

butter | 12.16.08 - 11:55 pm | #

Have to wait a year for that. For 2009, it was something like +5.7%

FFDIC writes:
"While regulators screwed around with Martha Stewart they could have been using their massive resources to look at Madoff and probably a dozen or more others. They had information with much more potential investor damage about Madoff than they ever had on Stewart's lack of business judgment.
FFDIC | 12.16.08 - 11:36 pm | # "

Absolutely right. The latest events put things in perspective, don't they?

--
"...what they care about is the utter panic and disbelief in the actions of the politicians in charge."

AllenM,

Why shouldn't people panic when they discover that Gangistan is in-charge and raping the public is their favorite sport?

BTW, born-and-bred American dopes are right every second of the clock. They are too stupid to know when they are wrong! They are BRED to never admit failure and to blame others, or attack others, for their own problems.

Dopeland is full of pychos. Gangistan and Dopeland are highly entertaining and it would be fully if it weren't so sad.

Jas

Anoddamoose,

You assume too much, first and foremost in thinking that there has to be a reserve currency.

OT: been ripping my CD collection to disc (AAC, 320kpbs). If nothing else, so long as the power stays on, there is some fine, fine music to listen to while all hell is breaking loose. Need to stock up on scotch, tho.

--
ooops..

it would be fuNNy if it weren't so sad.

Jas

"While regulators screwed around with Martha Stewart they could have been using their massive resources to look at Madoff and probably a dozen or more others. They had information with much more potential investor damage about Madoff than they ever had on Stewart's lack of business judgment."
--FFDIC

Stunning, isn't it? And now we see Chris Cox calling for an investigation.
Shocked, I tell you.

Bank Failure Friday may have to re-named 'Fess Up Friday. Maybe the SEC should have a quick look at the other suspicious activities that they have received warnings about over the last 10 years.

Better still, maybe we should declare a new Wall Street holiday: St. Ponzi's Day. Once each year, the crooks would have an opportunity to come clean in exchange for a fixed sentence of five years in Club Fed, a financial anal probe, and permanent banning. Crooks who failed to come clean on St. Ponzi's day, when caught, would get life in prison with weekly waterboarding and a cellmate named Bubba.

Some balance of incentives could be reached in which it would be better to come clean. Of course, one could argue that Madoff was a psychopath and would never have taken a clean way out. I'm interested in others opinions on this, but it seems like providing the option might work in some cases at least.

"Our creditors don't want houses, they want resources."

well put. and, soon enough, they'll figure out that a claim on future wages isn't much of a claim if the wages won't be there to support it in lieu of printing.

Jas Jain | Homepage | 12.16.08 - 11:57 pm

Too true I'm afraid ...

I like to think of myself as not being a dope but I'm sure surrounded by them ...

"I like to think of myself as not being a dope but I'm sure surrounded by them ..."
--mmckinl

I guess we're all dopes now...
.

The SEC has been a joke for the better part of a decade. They used to be fairly respectable ... and feared. Thanks again, chimp.

Pitchforks,Torches&Pikes World -

had the same dilema, see my Bollinger investment above >; )

"no real alternatives"

gold

pr reported that mac 'n' cheese sales up 20% yoy

I nominate CSC for mayor of Dopeland

I guess we're all dopes now...
.
sm_landlord

~~~~

Part of the same receding tide ... we're just dopes who know it ...

"no real alternatives"

gold

bgates | 12.17.08 - 12:06 am | #

Yes, I began staging into that today. Not too confident it won't find some way to be confiscated, however.

"I guess we're all dopes now..."

i like to think of those holding more than 10K of tbt or 20K of srs as being in the "silver dopes" club, twice that "golden dopes", etc

Yes, I began staging into that today. Not too confident it won't find some way to be confiscated, however.

~~~~

What if GLD is another Maddoff enterprise ?

No gold in the vault.

What if GLD is another Maddoff enterprise ?

No gold in the vault.

mmckinl | 12.17.08 - 12:09 am | #

Nothing domestic, never fear Wink

2. General re-denomination of key productive commodities in other than USD.

All commodities are denominated in all convertible currencies at all times.

They are just quoted in USD for convenience, so people think there is something special about it. There isn't.

"gold"
--bgates

Been there since 2001, but loaded up some more miners last week. I sure hope I'm right. So far, gold been berry berry good to me (other than a few scary months this year). But I expect the govt to find a way to screw me on that as well.

Blackhalo, you should talk to some Germans and read what they really think of the Med countries and their black hole of finance. They will bail on that fiasco sooner or later.

Citizen AllenM | 12.16.08 - 10:17 pm | #

The Germans will not drop the Euro but the Italian extreme right might force a drop out.  However, that would be a distatser for Italy.  The Euro is for all practical purposes the DM.  It is by no accident that the ECB is located in Frankfurt.

Here is a story that should help illuminates this discussion:

Germany slowly gains euro advantage
Nostalgia for Deutsche mark unlikely to overwhelm single currency

... But few economists expect nostalgia for the former currency to overwhelm the euro. That's in part because the creation of the euro solved one of the country's most persistent economic challenges: Now that they all share the euro, rivals such as Spain and Italy can no longer devalue their own currencies to get a leg up on German competitors. That is "a clear advantage for the price competitiveness of German industry" and the biggest benefit of membership in the Economic and Monetary Union, said Christoph Weil, senior economist at Commerzbank, Germany's second-biggest bank. ...

Ok folks here's the real economy fracture, I'll do bonds and Asian equities later tonight, but here you have a serious demand collapse and a series of price signals:

Pacific Shipper Online -- Buckling under

C - in public service mode.

Why is the Republican plan for CA not surprising?

"GOP budget plan: Slash $10 billion from schools"

"GOP budget plan: Slash $10 billion from schools"

~~~~~

Schools don't vote ?

Asia just figured out Uncle Ben stuck a fork in thier ass.

Looks like the Nikkei isn't fond of this "bugger thy neighbor" policy, down 121 as of 12:00 am EST.

"GOP budget plan: Slash $10 billion from schools"
--Speed

Do you live in California? Maybe even in LA? The wastage is beyond description. It really does not surprise me that some people are taking the "starve the beast" approach to California schools. They spend untold billions on facilities but don't buy enough textbooks. They protect incompetent teachers with tenure but do not staff other classes. School boards play political games with administrators, who play political games with teachers, and teachers manipulate the process through their unions. It is the most unbelievably fscked up system, even Rube Goldberg would be shamed if it were his creation.

California badly needs real education reform, starting with the elimination of elected school boards and the teacher's union. Real reform could proceed from there.

the goldbug part of the groupthink here has a larger audience than any other component, and there's a reason for that.

i'm hearing a ton of commercials on AM radio for gold. it could have the mojo to go all the way, like tech in '99 or housing in '06 (or gold in '79, of course).

Yo folks

Here's the Asia bond picture, not looking that great, and I'll get currencies up simult:

\tVALUE\tCHANGE\t% CHANGE
Nikkei 225\t8,490.00\t-70.00\t-0.82
Topix\t822.00\t-6.00\t-0.72
Hang Seng\t15,266.00\t197.00\t1.31
Singapore Straits Times\t1,786.00\t10.00\t0.56
S&P/ASX\t3,530.00\t-25.00\t-0.70

And here's how currencies thought Bernanke's moves were really kinda cool. Not.

\tVALUE\tCHANGE\t% CHANGE
USD-JPY\t88.4190\t-0.6395\t-0.72
USD-HKD\t7.7500\t-0.0001\t-0.00
USD-SGD\t1.4564\t-0.0037\t-0.25
AUD-USD\t0.6972\t0.0030\t0.43

Jeebus, yen:USD at 88?

Time to re-post some blues:
YouTube - PJ Harvey - Down By The Water

C

What people have to remember is that confidence is the key, and what is starting to disappear is confidence in the ability of the US Government to successfully manage this crisis.
Citizen AllenM | 12.16.08 - 11:10 pm | #

Excellent post.  I agree that this is the international perception.  This is why the dollar will lose its exclusive status.  Obviously reserve currency status is not a yes or no proposition but an allocation issue.

"Jeebus, yen:USD at 88?"
--Counterpointer

And this surprises you because...???

"California badly needs real education reform"

california has one of the crown jewels of public education in the planet in the UC system. we're also a natural axis for china, latin america, and those turkeys back east who devise stupid foreign policy and send us strange funny money.

if you could have every 6th grader in california speaking chinese, english and spanish well, our next generation would be the intellectual leaders of the world.

instead, we're idiots, grown into fine powder by cheap reactionary geriatrics and their prop 13 entitlements on one side and the CTA and livin'-large UC admins on the other. what a waste.

Futures looking anemic ...

Dow -86

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