I just finished watching the first Zeitgeist film (Page Not Found, tin-foil-hat-ish I know, but viewed through this lense alot of things start to add up (and it also explained a number of themes running through comments here and on other blogs). Anyone want to weight in on these proceedings using the lense of the ultimate goal being a one world government?
Oh yeah, for those needing an overdraft or short term loan. The best I have found is ING direct charging 4% over prime with no fees and interest is calculated daily.
Fat Point ... Punta Gorda, Florida - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia .... but I like Fat Butt, better. Still, I agree... CR is getting snarky, all hell is about to bust loose.... I wonder which Black Swan it will be, and how soon?? *sigh* I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue...
CR is getting snarky, all hell is about to bust loose.... I wonder which Black Swan it will be, and how soon?? Comrade Yossarian | 12.17.08 - 12:22 am | #
Reliable source tells me there's a huge escalation taking place in central Asia. The Taliban aren't taking the winter off, and big US deployments are on the way. Supply lines through Pak are becoming less reliable, and India could take a retaliatory shot at any time.
But I guess knowing all this takes it out of black swan territory...
OT, but Bloomberg still has headlines about Asian stocks rising whilst the nearby chart shows the yen going decidedly red. 200+ up early to now -125 down -- quite the swing!
Ah, had me a little excited there. It's sales 40% off, not prices JustAnEngineer | 12.17.08 - 12:29 am | #
Ah, sorry, right you are. I just remembered an example in the story of a house in Aspen dropping from $25 million to $14.5 million. That's 48% off...I'll bet you could sweet-talk 'em down the other 2%.
Daily Business Review: 30M_site_sold_for_1_dollar
Condo Meltdown
$30 million site sold at auction for $100
Developer Homero Meruelos plans for a $300 million condo project officially ended Monday with a lenders $100 bid during a foreclosure auction at the Palm Beach County courthouse. The Merco Groups principal had been fighting a foreclosure lawsuit by Eastern Financial Florida Credit Union on a 4.5-acre West Palm Beach site where he planned to build Palladio Terrace for more than a year. Meruelo had managed to win postponements of several previously scheduled auctions. But Monday, he wasnt even aware an auction had taken place, he confirmed in a phone interview. No one bid on it? he asked after learning the site went back to the lender for $100, the minimum Eastern Financial had to bid in order to retrieve the property
Love the companion; just grabbed the latest update. Can I make a request? Can you make the "published" time out after a second or two instead of requiring the OK?
Someone who lives in the exurbs outside of Orlando called into the Dave Ramsey show last week. She bought her house for $215,000 in 2005. Now she said that houses that are bigger than hers are selling in the low $100s. She estimated that her house is now worth between $80 and $100 thousand. She could afford the mortgage, but the adjustable is due to reset in the next year or so, and the neighborhood is going to pot (with all of the foreclosures and renters) so she wants to move.
Dave Ramsey thought she was being too pessimistic. Sigh.
Investors will have to keep waiting for BankUnited to publish its latest financials. Today Floridas largest regional bank, an option ARM specialist, released a non-timely filing notice, noting that they will be unable to make their annual filing with the SEC by the Dec. 15th deadline.
The filing includes a going concern warning. (serious stuff)
Many articles covering the Greek riots don't mention why they were rioting in the first place.
"Greeks are losing their patience. Their salary is running out before the end of the month as they endure a major economic crisis, and at the same time can see the state collapsing," Socialist spokesman Giorgos Papaconstantinou said.
Reading Portland housing Blog and an opinion was offered that if we want to know what the real estate market is going to look like in America we should look at Detroit. Made me pause and think.
we're going to be seeing a bunch of mini-argentinas as places like hungary, slovakia, poland, the former yugo states, all deal with euro-denominated debt.
My take is that the powers that be, will take steps before this happens by renegotiating mortgages etc.
IF this does not happen.. i shiver at the outcome.
The New York Times
Yeltsin Aide Warns Of Monetary 'Crash'
Published: September 23, 1992
Squaring off against hostile lawmakers, Russia's top economic planner warned yesterday that the monetary system faced the prospect of hyperinflation and a "complete crash" unless the central bank closed off a torrent of state credit to ailing industries.
Acting Prime Minister Yegor T. Gaidar also warned that Russia's budget deficit had become "threatening" and that industrial output was falling at an ever-faster clip. But angry conservatives called for his ouster, even as they received word of another grave development: a tumble in the ruble.
Many articles covering the Greek riots don't mention why they were rioting in the first place.
Speed | 12.17.08 - 12:49 am | #
It is a repeat of the 1973 scenario in many ways though not under a dictatorship this time. I lived in Greece at the time and experienced the protests first hand. Greece can be quite volatile and in the 70s it got quite bloody.
Squaring off against hostile lawmakers, Russia's top economic planner warned yesterday that the monetary system faced the prospect of hyperinflation and a "complete crash" unless the central bank closed off a torrent of state credit to ailing industries. -------------------------------------------------------- So they don't like the Paulson/Bernanke approach? I'm not sure the alternative is better.
Has it ever strikes anyone is ironic that Russia actually practiced Keynesian economics? I mean they really do save money during the good times, and have cash reserves to work with right now. (We just practice the spending part...)
Was 300k, now 150k. Sounds like a sale at Macy's these days. The truth is, it was never worth 300k, and 150k is too much even. If people have to borrow to buy, it's not worth more than the down payment. In the era of diminishing pensions and no employer loyalty in favor of the cheapest mule, a home should cost no more than 1x your yearly salary, or else you will never get to retire.
OT- From a previous thread Rob Dawg writes: \tGary writes: Advice taken thanks. Rob Dawg |Homepage | 12.16.08 - 7:54 pm | # I'm still waiting to see myself quoted as Gary [Irritating] One of my flame war enemies, please oblige. Won't get that from me. I try really hard to both be receptive and tolerant. My short list is very short and I don't flaunt it. That defeats the purpose. Maybe Ken Cooper can make a special tag just for me. Rob Dawg |
Ken has answered your prayers: Rob Dawg (Expletive Deleted) Gary (Expletive Deleted Twice)
Not really. Keynes is just shorthand for statism. The reserves are almost an accident due to 10 buck nat gas and $100 oil. I see Putin more as a fascist with a relatively light touch on non-politicals.
Wells-Fargo has had this for a long time, they call it a "Direct Deposit Advance." Gets paid off when your paycheck/SSI/SSA hits the bank so unless you took the advance the day after your previous check the APR can be much greater than 120%.
An acquaintance was hooked on this at the $500 limit for a couple of years, costing him $50/month on a gross income of ~$800. Recently Wells has been cutting him back $100/month so this month he got $100 and next month nada.
Apparantly Wells finally got around to enforcing an internal policy that limited usage to 12 consecutive months.
NYT is out with tomorrow's Madoff grit including an ongoing daily screwed 'list' that apparently has not been loaded with names yet as I could not get it to open. Maybe my name is on it! There are new names in the main article. I've not read the related articles yet.
The dollar is down, not out. Wait until our EU friends catch up.
European governments have come under even more pressure to rescue their motor manufacturing industries after figures out yesterday showed a 25.8% slump in new car sales in November.
The Spanish market dropped 49.6%, with the UK down 36.8%, Italy 29.5% and Germany 17.7%.
Geoff | 12.17.08 - 1:16 am | #
Here is a Houston Jewish lady down on her luck. The first NYT pieces said there are Dallas investor loses but no names have surfaced yet. Texas Jews can be mighty mean if you mess with their funds. I know! In the late 70s I worked for Mercantile Bank in the heart of the Jewish Houston community at Stella Link & Braeswood Blvd. Talk about chutzpah.
Just skimmed it, but I'm assuming the C&D for the thrift is still active since it's calling for a cap restoration plan. Then again, not too familiar with peculiarities of OTS enforcement.
ECB's Trichet hints at steady rates in January. The ECB president said after the 175 bp cut in December the ECB now has to concentrate "on getting what we already decided to be really operational", which ties in with other comments suggesting that the ECB is now in a wait and see mode and will await new data before deciding on rates again. Trichet also said that the ECB seems a limit to the decrease in rates and that the central bank has to "beware of being trapped at nominal rates that would be much too lower", which indicates that the central bank will be cautious with further cuts as the refi rates approaches historically low levels. At the same time the president confirmed that the central bank is examining to lower the deposit rate. Nothing entirely new in the comments, but a confirmation that rates are likely to be on hold in January.
Just skimmed it, but I'm assuming the C&D for the thrift is still active since it's calling for a cap restoration plan. Then again, not too familiar with peculiarities of OTS enforcement. Nice how OTS put its foot down POARMs.
Basel Too | 12.17.08 - 1:26 am | #
I bet Madoff gets away with it all somehow. A ridiculously lenient sentence? A faked death? A presidential pardon? A protected retirement in Israel? I don't know the scenario, but I just got a feelin'. Hope I'm wrong.
" Mozo Maz writes:
Has it ever strikes anyone is ironic that Russia actually practiced Keynesian economics? I mean they really do save money during the good times, and have cash reserves to work with right now. (We just practice the spending part...)
Mozo Maz | 12.17.08 - 12:59 am | # "
They don't have the "new economy" like we do, where superpowers make their own reality, deficits don't matter, housing only goes up, and stress tests assume everything stays above average.
Governments in leading economies have been called upon by the IMF to commit a combined 2% of global GDP, equivalent to £1.075bn, to try combat the dangers of a global recession. But the IMF chief blamed governments, saying they were unwilling or unable to use more public funds to jump-start economic activity.
"If we are not able to do that, then social unrest may happen in many countries - including advanced economies," Strauss-Kahn said.
" 3DK#DK3 writes:
Yeah, but a lot of "European" cars are not made in Europe. Many a Volkswagen are made in Mexico.
3DK#DK3 | 12.17.08 - 1:25 am | # "
Mexico is a powder keg (gang-police-military wars, oil running out, maquiladora exports in danger, foreign remittances collapsing, potentially millions of unemployed returning from the USA).
Fraudulent conveyance rules may allow those wiped out in the Madoff scheme to claw back losses from people who withdrew funds from Madoff years ago. And yes, it's been done. Lets see: international jurisdictional issues, incredible complexities of adjudicating gains and losses, largest fraud in history, minimal paper records - I'm seeing an epic legal case here. Might make the Howard Hughes inheritance case look like traffic court.
Can you make the "published" time out after a second or two instead of requiring the OK? Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) | 12.17.08 - 12:39 am | # Good point. I'll put a 'Don't show me this again' checkbox on it.
Yeah that good ole Bernie Madoff. Such a genius to have pulled off the $50 billion Ponzi operation all on his own. Without anyone knowing, not even his own sons.
And the estimated $17 billion that they can't find? Well, that probably just "evaporated", you know.
Something tells me the Madoff Ponzi Boyz will be sipping martinis on an island of their own in a couple of years.
A Greek-American friend has family in Greece. He says that much of social unrest is a result of the Olympics. Athens raised taxes a bunch to fund Olympic facilities (stadiums etc.) Afterward the tax increase remained and local businesses left town and local unemployment went through the roof. (A drought didn't help much either...)
I live in Chicago and fear that the same tax consequences (but not the drought) will happen here if we get the Olympics.
I don't understand why all the concern. The situation is under control. Dow is almost back to 9K. Bottom has long since passed, and before you know it, we'll be over 10K again.
People on this site always think the worst is about to happen. I used to be a believer, but now I realize that the folks here are too focussed on economic theory, and what they perceive as reality.
The powers that be create reality, and there is no way they're going to allow the system to fail. Even if they have to change the laws of economics to make it suit their vision of reality, the system MUST endure.
So quit looking at stuff like the fundamentals and what you think should be happening, and concentrate on the next rabbit our government plans to pull out of it's magic hat.
"and concentrate on the next rabbit our government plans to pull out of it's magic hat."
how is the government going to parlay the gold bubble into massive job growth?
it is hard to do outside of the places that still have a bit of it like Africa or Central Asia.
Seriously - the tech bubble created millions of new jobs and substantially enriched tens of thousands , the housing bubble, even more than that, in a few different sectors, for a few different socioeconomic profiles...
the next bubble in gold will maybe mean a hundred thousand new jobs in gold marketing, management, etc, if that.
it doesn't take a quant geek to see that overcapacity, unemployment and deflation could easily become part of a self-reinforcing cycle. coming super-high marginal rates for high earners won't help either (though I have no problem with the politics behind them).
The Feds debt purchases will cause the dollar to weaken to $1.4860 per euro, strategists led by Robert Sinche, New York- based head of global currency strategy at Bank of America, wrote in a research note yesterday. The Fed has reduced the scarcity of dollars and investors have slowed the deleveraging process, which drove the greenback to a 2 1/2-year high against the euro in October, Sinche said.
Those temporary supports for the dollar appear to have eroded, Sinche wrote. Aggressive quantitative easing by the Fed should add to U.S. dollar supply globally and undermine the value of the dollar.
I more think of that term as involving something surprising. having a few hedge funds revealed as true ponzi schemes when the spx loses 40% in a year shouldn't surprise anyone. if anything, the surprise is that there isn't more. i really don't see the fundamental difference between this and the shareholder experience in IMB, CFC, LEH, BSC or even the still-walking zombies like BAC, C, ABK, etc
but seriously - no customers, no growth prospects, no profits. who wants to borrow to buy a house now, knowing that there's another 30% of air underneath almost every market? who wants to start a small business, or even spend some savings remodeling? who needs a wall street bank to lube up a big m&a deal?
i get the happy-happy-joy-joy-obama-110spx theory in the very short term, but the idea of holding any moneycenter bank over the next year or two is just absurd.
Really nice of you to contribute something like that. Anonymous | 12.17.08 - 2:39 am | #
Thanks! I'm glad you like it. Money isn't the primary motivation here, but even by that measure, this blog has saved me more than the code's probably wor
I believe she is interested in some new crown jewels. A bit of a mess over there. Would you kindly send your gold, or some other mineral? She will give you her Note, and send ships if necessary...
"So, you can imagine our surprise when a northern IMF came along and shields went down instead," says Sibeck. "This completely overturns our understanding of things."
Are you shocked by this? I am shocked by this. In grade school we learned about the magnetic poles alternating in the record of the rocks. The explanations never made sense. Here is the unanswered answered. A very big north polarized solar wind, and a breach....every so often.
Ken Cooper- Is there any way to number the comments, or to know where you are while scrolling down? Knowing that I've got all the comments isn't actually helpful, since I'm assuming I'm getting them all anyway, but knowing how many I have to read before I'm current would be helpful to me. Thanks for the code work.
1134 has posted a black swan event. Google the loss of solar flares and the effects of a geomagnetic reversal and wonder about the actions of the worlds governments.
Trillions of dollars disappearing around the world and everyone wondering WTF are they thinking. Makes my tinfoil look at the DIA credible. Late night fun at CR.
In grade school we learned about the magnetic poles alternating in the record of the rocks. The explanations never made sense. Here is the unanswered answered. A very big north polarized solar wind, and a breach....every so often. Kondratieff canuk | 12.17.08 - 3:37 am | #
Probably not. The record on the rocks were originally read from the seafloor spreading outward from the Mid-Atlantic ridge, which I think moves in fractions from 0 to 4 centimeters a year. So the event would have to last a long long time. It's still a mystery why the earth's magnetic field flips, but it's likely internal to the earth.
"A minority opinion, held by such figures as Richard A. Muller, is that geomagnetic reversals are not spontaneous processes but rather triggered by external events which directly disrupt the flow in the Earth's core."
In other words, they don't know. Ok, fine, above theory is as good, until proven otherwise. Here's it is: An external event, called a solar wind breach causes a reversal in magnetic poles. It's random.
Thanks huh and 1134 Geomagnetic reversal - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia ...Although the inspection of past reversals does not indicate biological extinctions, present society with its reliance on electricity and electromagnetic effects (e.g. radio, satellite communications) may be vulnerable to technological disruptions in the event of a full field reversal.
I think the payday lenders will get snatched up by big banks, or the banks will start their own operations. Banks will only lend at usurious rates, through their front operations. It'll be funny if they start handing out little disposable tissue packets too.
What we know now is that the reversal of the polar magnetic fields is a monetary event caused by the sudden reversal of electronic fund transfers from East to West.
From the wicki page on sunspots: The economist William Stanley Jevons suggested that there is a relationship between sunspots and crises in business cycles. He reasoned that sunspots affect earth's weather, which, in turn, influences crop yields and, therefore, the economy.[11]
We are about to experience a depression in extremis. Although similar to the Great Depression, what is about to happen has never happened before; we are about to experience something new, a depression in combination with a currency collapse...
That bit of dismal news is from Darryl Robert Schoon.
In the article, Schoon quotes from a book about the history of fiat money in China:
"Over the course of 600 years, five dynasties had implemented paper money and all five made frequent use of the printing press to solve problems. Economic catastrophe and political chaos inevitably followed. Time and time again, officials looked to paper money for instant liquidity and the immediate transfer of wealth. But its ostensible virtues could not withstand its tragic legacy; those who held it as a store of value found that in time all they held were worthless pieces of paper."
(Page 29, Ralph T. Foster, Fiat Paper MoneyThe History And Evolution Of Our Currency)
Schoon continues:
The use of paper money was formally abolished in China in 1661. But...reappeared again in the 1900s...
Unfortunately, as China is about to discover, paper money was no more viable upon its return than in 1661 when it was banished. Once again, economic catastrophe and political chaos will followthis time on a global scale...
Kubalai Khans methods of encouraging the use of paper money were brutal, i.e. the penalty for not accepting paper money in trade was death...
(DON'T ANYONE HERE MENTION THAT TO PAULSON!)
"But what really captured Polos attention was how all the gold and silver went to the imperial treasury, while the population gladly received paper."
(ibid.)
The best quote, however, is from Marco Polo himself. One of the chapter headings in Polo's book about his travels:
HOW THE GREAT KHAN CAUSETH THE BARK OF TREES, MADE INTO SOMETHING LIKE PAPER, TO PASS FOR MONEY OVER ALL HIS COUNTRY
So now we know who to blame for this catastophe--the Chinese.
(from Kitco's page) Schoon's right about the underpinning of currency base, its an 'idea'. To imagine his foretold reality, you have to imagine the USD at zero. Baby, it ain't gonna happen.
The USD is going to take a fall, but there is no world power to replace it, and that's the bottom line. Ladies and gentlemen, place you bets.
NB through the magic of compounding, 10% per month is 213% annualy, not 120%. Jim A | 12.17.08 - 4:18 am | #
Yes, but they hit them up with a flat fee, 2 dollars for every twenty, each month,...so at the end of the year they've only charged twenty-four dollars for the loan of twenty dollars, it's a real bargain.
10 tola bars are distinctive in two ways. They have smooth rounded edges and are an ideal size for smuggling, if necessary inside the smugglers body. They have no serial numbers.
All original Banana Republics in South and Central America ended up in dictatorships with a little help of our friends, the CIA. You know, 'the spice must flow' type of thing...
Will it be any different this time? Was it different this time?
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is the largest stockholder in U.S. Bank Corp. - owning 4.16%.
Apparently America's greatest "investor" is long usury. And remember, Warren only invests in things he understands, like inflation and pay day loan centers. WTF!
Not meaning to belabor the point, but I noticed that the rubber band discussion sparked some interest in another thread. I am available for a wide variety of esoteric metaphors and obscure references for all occasions.
The emasculater is best employed on very young animals. Once they get a little size on them it becomes at least a two person job, unless you're set up with a squeeze chute. Said chute is good for inoculations, loading and unloading, burning horns, branding, etc.
Am I the only one who feels like we're all being herded into a chute for processing? Why worry about the reserve status of the dollar when it doesn't matter?
And why didn't anybody else (or did I miss something) observe that CR suggested that a mattress was a better repository for money than a MMF?
Was my Twain (Huck Finn) reference so esoteric?
Man, we best be running for the hills if the erudite amongst us is suggesting stuffing the mattress. Although, it will make a lovely little fire should the weather turn cold.
'They will destroy the village (dollar and markets) in order to save it.'
Dec 16 05:58 PM US/Eastern
Breitbart.com
US President George W. Bush said in an interview Tuesday he was forced to sacrifice free market principles to save the economy from "collapse."
"I've abandoned free-market principles to save the free-market system," Bush told CNN television, saying he had made the decision "to make sure the economy doesn't collapse."
Bush's comments reflect an extraordinary departure from his longtime advocacy for an unfettered free market, as his administration has orchestrated unprecedented government intervention in the face of a dire financial crisis.
"I am sorry we're having to do it," Bush said.
(Well at least he is @#$%@#$%@#$% sorry. Too bad it was only a shoe. - AM)
CCN reporting "Holiday shopping in decline" Holiday sales to date are down 1.4 percent, and Klinefelter expects a low, single-digit percentage decline throughout the season.
I wouldn't get too excited about the Euro, there's a lot of make believe going on in Euro land......
especially the Germans....
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Goodwill Hurting
(That oughta leave a 'mark'. - AM)
November 24, 10:43 pm est
by Nathalie Boschat
WSJ
PARIS -- As the recession bites and stocks continue to slide, acquisitions made by European companies at the height of the merger boom could become a time bomb, as accounting rules are likely to force some businesses into heavy write-downs on goodwill when they report 2008 earnings.
International Financial Reporting Standards have been used by most countries since 2005, but this year marks the first time they will be implemented against the backdrop of a sharp economic slowdown and a heavy stock-market selloff, accountants and experts say, warning that companies could take a severe hit as a result.
In Europe, the total amount of goodwill for companies included in the Dow Jones Stox 600 index is about 1 trillion euros.
This compares with a total market capitalization of 3.507 trillion euros as of Friday's close.
Posted by Anonymous Monetarist
"I've abandoned free-market principles to save the free-market system," Bush told CNN television, saying he had made the decision "to make sure the economy doesn't collapse."
Bush's comments reflect an extraordinary departure from his longtime advocacy for an unfettered free market, as his administration has orchestrated unprecedented government intervention in the face of a dire financial crisis.
"I am sorry we're having to do it," Bush said.
(Well at least he is @#$%@#$%@#$% sorry. Too bad it was only a shoe. - AM)
What he meant to say is "make sure the economy doesn't collapse until February, when I'm living in seclusion behind gates somewhere in Texas/South America." King IDIOT doesn't even know what words come out of his mouth, unless one of his aides gives him a script to read. He was probably drunk during when he was taking economics in college anyways, so I doubt he knows what free market principles even are.
Too bad the one successful thing he did during his tenure, was duck out of the way of the shoe. Mother Fucker!
The Federal Reserve's efforts to drive mortgage rates lower through the direct purchase of agency debt may in fact be pulling rates lower but it is so far doing little to increase home purchases. MBA's purchase application index fell 4.5 percent in the Dec. 12 week to 286.1, an extremely low level indicating little interest in home buying.
Comrade Knifecatcher writes:
OT: Ann Taylor Loft is now offering buy one item - get one free on ... everything. The stench of retail desperation is getting stronger.
Wonder what they're going to do after 12/25, when people don't even Need to buy stuff. I think I'll wait for the Buy None, Get 1 Free Sale.
Kind of like the Fed. When will they start Paying the banks to borrow money from the Fed?
So many of the homes I have looked at are "Cash Only". They have been stripped/damaged by the previous residents. There is no way in hell a bank will loan on damaged collateral after the fucking most have taken.
I am gonna go out on a limb and say there are only a handfull of us cash buyers around.
"Nobody even bothers to spin any more."
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.17.08 - 7:51 am |
Rob,
A 2/1 just popped up on the MLS in Venice for 19k. Last sale price???
ac writes:
The Federal Reserve's efforts to drive mortgage rates lower through the direct purchase of agency debt may in fact be pulling rates lower but it is so far doing little to increase home purchases. MBA's purchase application index fell 4.5 percent in the Dec. 12 week to 286.1, an extremely low level indicating little interest in home buying.
Although I'm sure that giving $15B to the auto companies is going to result in getting consumers to increase auto purchases.
The Amerikan public is so fucking stupid, they won't even blame these Bastards. What excuses will they come up with next?
Mr. Madoff's niece, Shana Madoff, married a former SEC attorney named Eric Swanson last year. Mr. Swanson worked at the SEC for 10 years, including as a senior inspections and examination official, before leaving in 2006.
Here is the key question: since the fortune never really existed, is Mr. Swanson entitled to an annulment?
The Balrog is the beast of currency implosion, utter chaos, and other as yet to be determined unfortunate consequences unleashed by years of reckless fiscal, energy, and foreign policy.
"This foe is beyond any of you. Run!"
Sadly, I have no idea who will be our Gandalf. In any event, it may very well be far too late for "YOU SHALL NOT PASS!!"
Paulson as the Mouth of Sauron fits well. Cheney would be the work well as the Witch-king of Angmar. Bernanke as Saruman? Sitting irrelevant in his tower while Ents patrol below?
Investors will have to keep waiting for BankUnited to publish its latest financials. Today Floridas largest regional bank, an option ARM specialist, released a non-timely filing notice, noting that they will be unable to make their annual filing with the SEC by the Dec. 15th deadline.
The filing includes a going concern warning. (serious stuff)
FFDIC | 12.17.08 - 12:47 am | #
Was this not the bank that took over bank failure #4 in GA? Looks like the less sick banks are gobbling up the terminally ill ones. Wasn't this the FDIC plan all along....to cannibalize the entire banking system until only TARP approved institutions are left....Whocouldaaaaknowed
Paulson as the Mouth of Sauron fits well. Cheney would be the work well as the Witch-king of Angmar. Bernanke as Saruman? Sitting irrelevant in his tower while Ents patrol below? Assume Crash Positions! | Homepage | 12.17.08 - 8:32 am | #
I like Paulson as Saruman better. Because then you can use Kashkari as Wormtongue.
RE: regionals swallowing failed banks, I think you're right in that the FDIC is 'helping' those who aren't terminal to forestall their demise
Is Regions one of those, do you think?
And, while we're at it, there are plenty of well run, profitable banks scattered throughout the economy. They have money to lend and will given the right situation. Of course, we all know what 'right situation' means.
We're all going to be dead before any of these Fuckers gets any blame for the Depression they have caused.
Greenspan & his Whore wife andrea mitchell, are still lionized, as if he has no blame in this calamity. I have no doubt it will be years and years before anybody realizes that bernanke, paulson, King george, etc., and their policies, had ANYTHING to do with the upcoming slow motion disaster.
I mean, NOTHING was their fault. It was merely the fault of the economic system, and the consumers, of course. If only we had been spending and been honest in taking out loans, none of this would have happened.
When you get that powerful, you become untouchable. We would be Shot & killed before we could exact any retribution on these criminals. They won't be stupid like O.J., and will make sure they don't make any further mistakes, so they can get off scott free.
I'm still waiting for King george to blanket pardon everybody, and give a big middle finger, in the next 35 days.
Of course Madoff will make off with a major part of the cash while successfully avoiding prison.
How soon before we hear this from one of Madoff's teary-eyed relatives: "You can't sentence him to prison. Given his (age, bad heart, prostrate cancer, etc) that would be a death sentence. Only heartless monsters would sentence people to death for a financial crime."
A stupid judge will agree with this logic, adding that Madoff has suffered enough from the loss of his reputation and standing in the community. And so Madoff will face at most a suspended sentence. Upon receiving such a sentence, and after declaring himself completely broke, Madoff will fly off to a foreign country where mysteriously he will continue to live the life of one of the super-rich.
Something that I have been pondering lately. Can a country with massive importing needs really have deflation while the dollar is crashing? Short of cash and CD's how do I protect my capital?
Pimco's Paul Mcculley on CRAPNBC right now, calling Bernanke the "Person Of The Year."
We'll all be dead and buried before any of these Fuckers gets blamed for this disaster. They're waiting to blame the incoming administration, and will let guys like greenspan, bernanke & paulson escape as heroes.
Coming soon to an intertubz near you - a hand in your pocket! (expected it, but not this quickly)
NY gov proposes tax on drinks, downloaded music
ALBANY, N.Y. Gov. David Paterson's first state budget threatens to affect just about every New Yorker. Even those online.
Paterson proposed Tuesday a 2009-10 budget that would increase spending by 1.1 percent, or $1.3 billion, to create a $121.1 billion spending plan.
Much of the growth is revenue from 88 new or higher fees and will hit New Yorkers in many areas, from downloading music to sipping drinks to fishing.
One of the proposed hikes is a so-called "iPod tax," which would tax the sale of downloaded music and other "digitally delivered entertainment services" by 4 percent. Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
If a large gov't was to sell U.S. treasuries, would that lead to dollar strength? To sell U.S. debt, you'd first have to convert to dollars, and then something else. So in the initial selling, the dollar would get stronger.
I've read that the world used Spanish currency back in the day long after the country lost its preeminent position in the world. I wonder if it is possible for the same thing to happen to the dollar. Could the dollar maintain strength while the country's debt devalues?
Mass. is not the tax capital of the world, not by a long, long, long shot. NY already is.
Markel | 12.17.08 - 8:58 am | #
Well he is still a moron if he thinks new and improved fees and taxes are the solution to the budget deficit. Doing NYS taxes is harder than most undergraduate defrees some years, the number of pork-barrel one-off tax deductions and write-offs are obscene.
That is the question. On the one hand the dollar is the reserve currency, and lots of business contracts are written in dollars so even if no one wants dollars, they have to deal in them. And will Ben be successful in his reflation attempt? Time will tell.
Reflation seems unlikely, as it will take lending against a diminished collateral base to uncreditworthy (read: unemployed) borrowers...but devaluation, now you're talking!
When I first found my way to CR in 2Q2007, there was a poster with the handle 'engineered depression' - used to think it a bit tinfoil - not so much anymore...
At this point, taking on more debt to prop up fictitious wealth is just silly.
--Angry Saver
Only if you are sitting on cash. If you are a bank sitting on tons of assets, which if valued correctly would send you into bankruptcy, then getting Ben to prop all this crap up will keep you rich and the savers poor. It's a war.
If I parse s0mebody correctly, it is fight it or have your savings taken without a struggle - they are making war against you (savers)...publicly discussing alternatives is in fact, shooting back.
When I first found my way to CR in 2Q2007, there was a poster with the handle 'engineered depression' - used to think it a bit tinfoil - not so much anymore...
The story of the long bond is of the unthinkable becoming reality. Repeatedly. And quickly. When the long bond hit the previously-unthinkable 3% I figured 2.5% was unthinkable. And now we're almost there. In a week!
citizen energyecon writes: Look at the TNX one year chart - it was right at 4% at the start of November - looking like it will be under 2% for the end of December... citizen energyecon | 12.17.08 - 9:56 am --- If you compare the S&P500's performance with the 10 & 30 year bond, the percentage drop is roughly the same.
Recently, the S&P500 broke through the 10 year and is now equal with the 30 year. These kinds of charts really are Mr. Market's Shock & Awe.
Link: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=^TNX&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=^tyx&c=^GSPC (CR Companion is dumping on the URL)
I'll tell you what's really scary about U.S. Bank's new Payday Loan Division. Back in 1999, when I worked for U.S. Bank's bitter rival Dain Rauscher in its Fixed Income Banking division, I actually proposed to my bosses the hairbrained of securitizing payday loans. My boss looked at me like I was on crack, pulled me to the side like a favorite son, and said words to the effect of "we don't do that kind of business here, and one must never again grace our oracles with such sacrilege."
Since that time, Dain was swallowed up by Royal Bank of Canada, and, clearly, U.S. Bank figured out a way to adapt and stay independent. Scary...
Omen?
It's a great time to buy or sell a condo.
go to sleep, CR, we need you
BWAAAhahahahahaahahahahahaaaa!!
Do usury laws exist?
Wait, does "Punta Gorda" mean "Fat Ass"?
that's just sad. god...
WTF? A bit of an odd post! Did someone hijack CR's account?
I knew the payday lenders days were numbered and now with prosper.com gone the banks can take the high risk lending market too.
Hymns for the Lord, just having fun.
It happens ....
Best to all
Please remember the last time CR got snarky sh*t went haywire!
........
Jebus! Has the world gone mad?
I just finished watching the first Zeitgeist film (Page Not Found, tin-foil-hat-ish I know, but viewed through this lense alot of things start to add up (and it also explained a number of themes running through comments here and on other blogs). Anyone want to weight in on these proceedings using the lense of the ultimate goal being a one world government?
C
But if U.S. Bank sends me to debtors' prison, doesn't that mean my house goes on the market? Paulson won't like that.
Oh yeah, for those needing an overdraft or short term loan. The best I have found is ING direct charging 4% over prime with no fees and interest is calculated daily.
So when are Colorado ski condos gonna be half off??
Bad Request About time CR! I hope this gives you more control over uptime and how you structure your posts and content.
50%? Why would you want to overpay for a vacation property?
Fat Point ... Punta Gorda, Florida - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia .... but I like Fat Butt, better. Still, I agree... CR is getting snarky, all hell is about to bust loose.... I wonder which Black Swan it will be, and how soon?? *sigh* I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue...
Whoops, that Anonymous was me at 12:22am
The new site also explains why CRCompanion can't determine the post title.
So when are Colorado ski condos gonna be half off??
JustAnEngineer | 12.17.08 - 12:21 am | #
Almost there now.
Ski Area Housing Market Slides Nearly 40%
cd
Ah, had me a little excited there. It's sales 40% off, not prices.
CR is getting snarky, all hell is about to bust loose.... I wonder which Black Swan it will be, and how soon??
Comrade Yossarian | 12.17.08 - 12:22 am | #
Reliable source tells me there's a huge escalation taking place in central Asia. The Taliban aren't taking the winter off, and big US deployments are on the way. Supply lines through Pak are becoming less reliable, and India could take a retaliatory shot at any time.
But I guess knowing all this takes it out of black swan territory...
The new site also explains why CRCompanion can't determine the post title.
kahni | 12.17.08 - 12:24 am | #
I have just posted an update that takes care of this problem (as well as fixing a few other bugs).
OT, but Bloomberg still has headlines about Asian stocks rising whilst the nearby chart shows the yen going decidedly red. 200+ up early to now -125 down -- quite the swing!
Ah, had me a little excited there. It's sales 40% off, not prices
JustAnEngineer | 12.17.08 - 12:29 am | #
Ah, sorry, right you are. I just remembered an example in the story of a house in Aspen dropping from $25 million to $14.5 million. That's 48% off...I'll bet you could sweet-talk 'em down the other 2%.
cd
Thanks, Ken!
Ooops, I hate doing math in public. OK, 42% off. But you can still probably work that 8% split out...
cd
Alright, Drain, what're you drinking?
so my opening "Omen?" (which is Nemo backwards) beat Nemo. I haven't been around here all that long, but isn't that a bit...unusual?
Daily Business Review: 30M_site_sold_for_1_dollar
Condo Meltdown
$30 million site sold at auction for $100
Developer Homero Meruelos plans for a $300 million condo project officially ended Monday with a lenders $100 bid during a foreclosure auction at the Palm Beach County courthouse. The Merco Groups principal had been fighting a foreclosure lawsuit by Eastern Financial Florida Credit Union on a 4.5-acre West Palm Beach site where he planned to build Palladio Terrace for more than a year. Meruelo had managed to win postponements of several previously scheduled auctions. But Monday, he wasnt even aware an auction had taken place, he confirmed in a phone interview. No one bid on it? he asked after learning the site went back to the lender for $100, the minimum Eastern Financial had to bid in order to retrieve the property
Ken Cooper,
Love the companion; just grabbed the latest update. Can I make a request? Can you make the "published" time out after a second or two instead of requiring the OK?
I mean the "comment posted". Urp!
I'll bid on that Aspen house if the 100 shares of SRS I bought today does really well.
Someone who lives in the exurbs outside of Orlando called into the Dave Ramsey show last week. She bought her house for $215,000 in 2005. Now she said that houses that are bigger than hers are selling in the low $100s. She estimated that her house is now worth between $80 and $100 thousand. She could afford the mortgage, but the adjustable is due to reset in the next year or so, and the neighborhood is going to pot (with all of the foreclosures and renters) so she wants to move.
Dave Ramsey thought she was being too pessimistic. Sigh.
Can't find the update, link?
Thanks
it's never a good time to quit sniffing glue...
crcompanion.blogspot.com
This is a momentary blip of deflation before hyperinflation.
"And if you believe that, keep an eye on my butthole, as flying pigs shoot out it and fly around the room, whistling "Comfortably Numb"."
Quote stolen from a guy named Sid. I howled.
Option ARMageddon
BankUnited on the brink..
Investors will have to keep waiting for BankUnited to publish its latest financials. Today Floridas largest regional bank, an option ARM specialist, released a non-timely filing notice, noting that they will be unable to make their annual filing with the SEC by the Dec. 15th deadline.
The filing includes a going concern warning. (serious stuff)
""Punta Gorda" mean "Fat Ass"?"
right up there with Rat Mouth, FL, The Bathrooms, CA, and of course Coalinga - we all know what that means
Is that U.S. Bank ad for real?
Many articles covering the Greek riots don't mention why they were rioting in the first place.
"Greeks are losing their patience. Their salary is running out before the end of the month as they endure a major economic crisis, and at the same time can see the state collapsing," Socialist spokesman Giorgos Papaconstantinou said.
We've heard Krugman is reading CR. How about Arianna Huffington?
Arianna Huffington: Will The Madoff Debacle Finally End The "Who Could Have Known?" Era?
She mis-spelled it though. It's "Hoocoodanode?"
Many articles covering the Greek riots don't mention why they were rioting in the first place.
~~~~
I read where riots are spreading throughout the EU ...
Reading Portland housing Blog and an opinion was offered that if we want to know what the real estate market is going to look like in America we should look at Detroit. Made me pause and think.
"riots are spreading throughout the EU ..."
we're going to be seeing a bunch of mini-argentinas as places like hungary, slovakia, poland, the former yugo states, all deal with euro-denominated debt.
right up there with Rat Mouth, FL, The Bathrooms, CA, and of course Coalinga - we all know what that means
bgates | 12.17.08 - 12:47 am | #
Always liked Lard, CA, too.
Alt-A and Option Arms.
YouTube - Second Financial Economic Crash Coming - Huge & Soon
My take is that the powers that be, will take steps before this happens by renegotiating mortgages etc.
IF this does not happen.. i shiver at the outcome.
ASSOCIATED PRESSATHENS -- Student protesters pelted police stations with rocks and bottles, overturned cars and blocked streets in central Athens on Thursday, and police responded with tear gas, as sporadic violence persisted amid Greece's worst rioting in decades. There were signs the unrest was spreading as violence erupted in several other European countries. In small but violent protests in Spain and Denmark, youths smashed shop windows, attacked banks and hurled bottles at police, while cars were set alight outside a consulate in France. Protesters gathered in front of the Greek Embassy in Rome on Wednesday and some turned violent, damaging police vehicles, overturning a car and setting a trash can on fire. Authorities say the incidents have been isolated so far, but acknowledge concern that the Greek riots could be a trigger for antiglobalization groups and others outraged by economic turmoil and a lack of job opportunities. "What's happening in Greece tends to prove that the extreme left exists, contrary to the doubts of some over these past few weeks," French Interior Ministry spokesman Gérard Gachet said.
The New York Times
Yeltsin Aide Warns Of Monetary 'Crash'
Published: September 23, 1992
Squaring off against hostile lawmakers, Russia's top economic planner warned yesterday that the monetary system faced the prospect of hyperinflation and a "complete crash" unless the central bank closed off a torrent of state credit to ailing industries.
Acting Prime Minister Yegor T. Gaidar also warned that Russia's budget deficit had become "threatening" and that industrial output was falling at an ever-faster clip. But angry conservatives called for his ouster, even as they received word of another grave development: a tumble in the ruble.
Article, page A17.
"Always liked Lard, CA, too."
so close to yosemite yet so frightening
Many articles covering the Greek riots don't mention why they were rioting in the first place.
Speed | 12.17.08 - 12:49 am | #
It is a repeat of the 1973 scenario in many ways though not under a dictatorship this time. I lived in Greece at the time and experienced the protests first hand. Greece can be quite volatile and in the 70s it got quite bloody.
Backstory: In Greece, the culture of protest
Squaring off against hostile lawmakers, Russia's top economic planner warned yesterday that the monetary system faced the prospect of hyperinflation and a "complete crash" unless the central bank closed off a torrent of state credit to ailing industries.
--------------------------------------------------------
So they don't like the Paulson/Bernanke approach? I'm not sure the alternative is better.
""Punta Gorda" mean "Fat Ass"?"
right up there with Rat Mouth, FL, The Bathrooms, CA, and of course Coalinga - we all know what that means
bgates | 12.17.08 - 12:47 am | #
Now "Puta Gorda," that's something entirely different...
cd
"So they don't like the Paulson/Bernanke approach?"
i see it as the Paulson/Madoff/Gramm approach
Cannot find BankUnited enforcement action(s) on OTS search. Is that the correct regulator?
Office of Thrift Supervision - Enforcement Search
Has it ever strikes anyone is ironic that Russia actually practiced Keynesian economics? I mean they really do save money during the good times, and have cash reserves to work with right now. (We just practice the spending part...)
Wow. Dollar index is sporting a 7 handle again.
Was 300k, now 150k. Sounds like a sale at Macy's these days. The truth is, it was never worth 300k, and 150k is too much even. If people have to borrow to buy, it's not worth more than the down payment. In the era of diminishing pensions and no employer loyalty in favor of the cheapest mule, a home should cost no more than 1x your yearly salary, or else you will never get to retire.
"US Bank a Payday lender?"
Wow! We're finally beginning to see some of that Fed liquidity trickling down.
Thank you, Chairman Bernanke!
Thank you, Chairman Grundhofer!
Yowza!
oh boy...what's your dollar tracking site, if you dont mind? thx.
OT- From a previous thread
Rob Dawg |
Rob Dawg writes:
\tGary writes:
Advice taken thanks.
Rob Dawg |Homepage | 12.16.08 - 7:54 pm | #
I'm still waiting to see myself quoted as
Gary [Irritating]
One of my flame war enemies, please oblige.
Won't get that from me. I try really hard to both be receptive and tolerant. My short list is very short and I don't flaunt it. That defeats the purpose. Maybe Ken Cooper can make a special tag just for me.
Ken has answered your prayers:
Rob Dawg (Expletive Deleted)
Gary (Expletive Deleted Twice)
oh boy...what's your dollar tracking site, if you dont mind? thx.
Geoff | 12.17.08 - 1:00 am | #
This one is quite good:
http://www.netdania.com/Products/QuoteList/QuoteList.aspx
"Has it ever strikes anyone..."
Not really. Keynes is just shorthand for statism. The reserves are almost an accident due to 10 buck nat gas and $100 oil. I see Putin more as a fascist with a relatively light touch on non-politicals.
Wells-Fargo has had this for a long time, they call it a "Direct Deposit Advance." Gets paid off when your paycheck/SSI/SSA hits the bank so unless you took the advance the day after your previous check the APR can be much greater than 120%.
An acquaintance was hooked on this at the $500 limit for a couple of years, costing him $50/month on a gross income of ~$800. Recently Wells has been cutting him back $100/month so this month he got $100 and next month nada.
Apparantly Wells finally got around to enforcing an internal policy that limited usage to 12 consecutive months.
But I guess knowing all this takes it out of black swan territory...
Max | Homepage | 12.17.08 - 12:29 am | #
I'm sure it's all priced in...
oh boy...what's your dollar tracking site, if you dont mind? thx.
Try this one.
US Dollar Index
Cannot find BankUnited enforcement action(s) on OTS search. Is that the correct regulator?
BankUnited FSB, so it's a state-chartered bank. Whether or not it's a member bank, I do not know.
BankUnited FSB, so it's a state-chartered bank.
No, BankUnited's primary regulator is OTS.
Geoff :
Or this if you want it tick by tick :
US Dollar Index - Real-Time Currency Trading Charts from FXTRek for Forex Trading
BankUnited enforcement actions:
http://files.ots.treas.gov/enforcement/97016.pdf
http://files.ots.treas.gov/enforcement/97017.pdf
For past & future Madoff threads:
NYT is out with tomorrow's Madoff grit including an ongoing daily screwed 'list' that apparently has not been loaded with names yet as I could not get it to open. Maybe my name is on it! There are new names in the main article. I've not read the related articles yet.
thx! Im always looking out for new ones to track which is the most up to date and useful in terms of functionality.
Basel Too | 12.17.08 - 1:14 am | # Thanks BT but that C&D is dated 9/2008. Was it amended, ongoing or what?
The dollar is down, not out. Wait until our EU friends catch up.
European governments have come under even more pressure to rescue their motor manufacturing industries after figures out yesterday showed a 25.8% slump in new car sales in November.
The Spanish market dropped 49.6%, with the UK down 36.8%, Italy 29.5% and Germany 17.7%.
Madoff sounds like a good target for Spitzer. Poor Spitz. At least she was hot.
Geoff | 12.17.08 - 1:16 am | #
Here is a Houston Jewish lady down on her luck. The first NYT pieces said there are Dallas investor loses but no names have surfaced yet. Texas Jews can be mighty mean if you mess with their funds. I know! In the late 70s I worked for Mercantile Bank in the heart of the Jewish Houston community at Stella Link & Braeswood Blvd. Talk about chutzpah.
Houstonian a victim of alleged $50 billion Ponzi scheme
'MY RELATIVES AND I LOST MILLIONS'
404 Error, No such article | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle
Yeah, but a lot of "European" cars are not made in Europe. Many a Volkswagen are made in Mexico.
FFDIC:
Just skimmed it, but I'm assuming the C&D for the thrift is still active since it's calling for a cap restoration plan. Then again, not too familiar with peculiarities of OTS enforcement.
Nice how OTS put its foot down POARMs.
One final thought:
Who needs the mafia when you've got US Bank?
The dollar is down, not out. Wait until our EU friends catch up.
Speed | 12.17.08 - 1:22 am | #
You may have missed these Trichet remarks today:
ECB Trichet Gives Hawkish Comments on Interest Rate
ECB's Trichet hints at steady rates in January. The ECB president said after the 175 bp cut in December the ECB now has to concentrate "on getting what we already decided to be really operational", which ties in with other comments suggesting that the ECB is now in a wait and see mode and will await new data before deciding on rates again. Trichet also said that the ECB seems a limit to the decrease in rates and that the central bank has to "beware of being trapped at nominal rates that would be much too lower", which indicates that the central bank will be cautious with further cuts as the refi rates approaches historically low levels. At the same time the president confirmed that the central bank is examining to lower the deposit rate. Nothing entirely new in the comments, but a confirmation that rates are likely to be on hold in January.
"right up there with Rat Mouth, FL, The Bathrooms, CA, and of course Coalinga - we all know what that means"
Ummm... you mean "Coaling Station A"? Because that's where the anme comes from.
Coalinga, California - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Now Los Banos is kind of funny...
Just skimmed it, but I'm assuming the C&D for the thrift is still active since it's calling for a cap restoration plan. Then again, not too familiar with peculiarities of OTS enforcement. Nice how OTS put its foot down POARMs.
Basel Too | 12.17.08 - 1:26 am | #
Might as well fire up the pizza ovens.
"Because that's where the anme comes from."
Many hear the tale of mighty chief coalinga, but not everyone believes
ECB's Trichet hints at steady rates in January.
Trichet continues to make the same mistake. He'll learn.
I bet Madoff gets away with it all somehow. A ridiculously lenient sentence? A faked death? A presidential pardon? A protected retirement in Israel? I don't know the scenario, but I just got a feelin'. Hope I'm wrong.
" Mozo Maz writes:
Has it ever strikes anyone is ironic that Russia actually practiced Keynesian economics? I mean they really do save money during the good times, and have cash reserves to work with right now. (We just practice the spending part...)
Mozo Maz | 12.17.08 - 12:59 am | # "
They don't have the "new economy" like we do, where superpowers make their own reality, deficits don't matter, housing only goes up, and stress tests assume everything stays above average.
I'll see your ECB and raise you an IMF:
Governments in leading economies have been called upon by the IMF to commit a combined 2% of global GDP, equivalent to £1.075bn, to try combat the dangers of a global recession. But the IMF chief blamed governments, saying they were unwilling or unable to use more public funds to jump-start economic activity.
"If we are not able to do that, then social unrest may happen in many countries - including advanced economies," Strauss-Kahn said.
I bet Madoff gets away with it all somehow
Old age + jail overcrowding.
" 3DK#DK3 writes:
Yeah, but a lot of "European" cars are not made in Europe. Many a Volkswagen are made in Mexico.
3DK#DK3 | 12.17.08 - 1:25 am | # "
Mexico is a powder keg (gang-police-military wars, oil running out, maquiladora exports in danger, foreign remittances collapsing, potentially millions of unemployed returning from the USA).
El Paso knows, but most of America is oblivious.
"If we are not able to do that, then social unrest may happen in many countries - including advanced economies," Strauss-Kahn said.
The IMF should know after devastating the economies of the asian crisis of '97.
I love that they wrote the price on a whiteboard. At least they know what's likely to happen to the price.
We are all Mexican now.
ot to brag, more for data point, especially since I think TPTB will push rates eve lower, but...
I just locked a 5% no points refi in MA. It too ++++ fico to get it.
I fully expect to see a 4% refi next xmas
oh - and the relatively "immune" northeast? still coming out of an ice storm. and word is more layoffs a-commin.
Here's something with massive repercussions:
Fraudulent conveyance rules may allow those wiped out in the Madoff scheme to claw back losses from people who withdrew funds from Madoff years ago. And yes, it's been done. Lets see: international jurisdictional issues, incredible complexities of adjudicating gains and losses, largest fraud in history, minimal paper records - I'm seeing an epic legal case here. Might make the Howard Hughes inheritance case look like traffic court.
Can you make the "published" time out after a second or two instead of requiring the OK?
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) | 12.17.08 - 12:39 am | #
Good point. I'll put a 'Don't show me this again' checkbox on it.
Yeah that good ole Bernie Madoff. Such a genius to have pulled off the $50 billion Ponzi operation all on his own. Without anyone knowing, not even his own sons.
And the estimated $17 billion that they can't find? Well, that probably just "evaporated", you know.
Something tells me the Madoff Ponzi Boyz will be sipping martinis on an island of their own in a couple of years.
Ken, I took a look... That's at least $10k worth of code. Really nice of you to contribute something like that.
The Monroe Doctrine, I spit on your Monroe Doctrine.
- Bloomberg.com
A Greek-American friend has family in Greece. He says that much of social unrest is a result of the Olympics. Athens raised taxes a bunch to fund Olympic facilities (stadiums etc.) Afterward the tax increase remained and local businesses left town and local unemployment went through the roof. (A drought didn't help much either...)
I live in Chicago and fear that the same tax consequences (but not the drought) will happen here if we get the Olympics.
I don't understand why all the concern. The situation is under control. Dow is almost back to 9K. Bottom has long since passed, and before you know it, we'll be over 10K again.
People on this site always think the worst is about to happen. I used to be a believer, but now I realize that the folks here are too focussed on economic theory, and what they perceive as reality.
The powers that be create reality, and there is no way they're going to allow the system to fail. Even if they have to change the laws of economics to make it suit their vision of reality, the system MUST endure.
So quit looking at stuff like the fundamentals and what you think should be happening, and concentrate on the next rabbit our government plans to pull out of it's magic hat.
Comrade Scared Shitless: Um... So you're long?
You have got to be sh*tting me this!!!
Gumbo writes:
Comrade Scared Shitless: Um... So you're long?
I was thinking the same... 'bastards'
Let them all drown!
I think the line goes, 'let them eat cake
If I squat in one of these houses, do I still get the free golf course membership?
"and concentrate on the next rabbit our government plans to pull out of it's magic hat."
how is the government going to parlay the gold bubble into massive job growth?
it is hard to do outside of the places that still have a bit of it like Africa or Central Asia.
Seriously - the tech bubble created millions of new jobs and substantially enriched tens of thousands , the housing bubble, even more than that, in a few different sectors, for a few different socioeconomic profiles...
the next bubble in gold will maybe mean a hundred thousand new jobs in gold marketing, management, etc, if that.
it doesn't take a quant geek to see that overcapacity, unemployment and deflation could easily become part of a self-reinforcing cycle. coming super-high marginal rates for high earners won't help either (though I have no problem with the politics behind them).
The Feds debt purchases will cause the dollar to weaken to $1.4860 per euro, strategists led by Robert Sinche, New York- based head of global currency strategy at Bank of America, wrote in a research note yesterday. The Fed has reduced the scarcity of dollars and investors have slowed the deleveraging process, which drove the greenback to a 2 1/2-year high against the euro in October, Sinche said.
Those temporary supports for the dollar appear to have eroded, Sinche wrote. Aggressive quantitative easing by the Fed should add to U.S. dollar supply globally and undermine the value of the dollar.
Do Bandos live on golf courses now?
Kona!
Obama's first Black Swan, the Madoff has landed.
Just got an email that says my Mortgage Pig Pima Cotton Polo is on its way.
"first Black Swan"
I more think of that term as involving something surprising. having a few hedge funds revealed as true ponzi schemes when the spx loses 40% in a year shouldn't surprise anyone. if anything, the surprise is that there isn't more. i really don't see the fundamental difference between this and the shareholder experience in IMB, CFC, LEH, BSC or even the still-walking zombies like BAC, C, ABK, etc
Yet another Black Swan:
NASA - A Giant Breach in Earth's Magnetic Field
Could you tell me how to get links to open into new tab? Lost that when I added companion, thanks.
"the still-walking zombies like BAC, C, ABK, etc"
they have new legs, watch out when they start kicki
1134 writes:
Yet another Black Swan:
'..a bubble of magnetism..'
there's no escape
Hi canuk.
Has Her Majesty deigned to allow you to convene Parliament yet?
"watch out when they start kickin'"
they had a hell of a kick today.
but seriously - no customers, no growth prospects, no profits. who wants to borrow to buy a house now, knowing that there's another 30% of air underneath almost every market? who wants to start a small business, or even spend some savings remodeling? who needs a wall street bank to lube up a big m&a deal?
i get the happy-happy-joy-joy-obama-110spx theory in the very short term, but the idea of holding any moneycenter bank over the next year or two is just absurd.
I bet Madoff gets away with it all somehow
Hey, everybody makes mistakes; that's why they put erasers on the end of pencils. If he promises not to do it again, I say let him go free.
Really nice of you to contribute something like that.
Anonymous | 12.17.08 - 2:39 am | #
Thanks! I'm glad you like it. Money isn't the primary motivation here, but even by that measure, this blog has saved me more than the code's probably wor
I believe she is interested in some new crown jewels. A bit of a mess over there. Would you kindly send your gold, or some other mineral? She will give you her Note, and send ships if necessary...
th.
Pilot error, not CR Companion.
1134 one(1) question:
"So, you can imagine our surprise when a northern IMF came along and shields went down instead," says Sibeck. "This completely overturns our understanding of things."
Are you shocked by this? I am shocked by this. In grade school we learned about the magnetic poles alternating in the record of the rocks. The explanations never made sense. Here is the unanswered answered. A very big north polarized solar wind, and a breach....every so often.
Ken Cooper- Is there any way to number the comments, or to know where you are while scrolling down? Knowing that I've got all the comments isn't actually helpful, since I'm assuming I'm getting them all anyway, but knowing how many I have to read before I'm current would be helpful to me. Thanks for the code work.
1134 has posted a black swan event. Google the loss of solar flares and the effects of a geomagnetic reversal and wonder about the actions of the worlds governments.
Trillions of dollars disappearing around the world and everyone wondering WTF are they thinking. Makes my tinfoil look at the DIA credible. Late night fun at CR.
2012 indeed.
Geomagnetic reversal - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Sunspot - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
claw back losses from people who withdrew funds from Madoff years ago. And yes, it's been done
The next bubble is in court cases.
In grade school we learned about the magnetic poles alternating in the record of the rocks. The explanations never made sense. Here is the unanswered answered. A very big north polarized solar wind, and a breach....every so often.
Kondratieff canuk | 12.17.08 - 3:37 am | #
Probably not. The record on the rocks were originally read from the seafloor spreading outward from the Mid-Atlantic ridge, which I think moves in fractions from 0 to 4 centimeters a year. So the event would have to last a long long time. It's still a mystery why the earth's magnetic field flips, but it's likely internal to the earth.
Huh?
Great links thanks.
"A minority opinion, held by such figures as Richard A. Muller, is that geomagnetic reversals are not spontaneous processes but rather triggered by external events which directly disrupt the flow in the Earth's core."
In other words, they don't know. Ok, fine, above theory is as good, until proven otherwise. Here's it is: An external event, called a solar wind breach causes a reversal in magnetic poles. It's random.
Thanks huh and 1134
Geomagnetic reversal - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
...Although the inspection of past reversals does not indicate biological extinctions, present society with its reliance on electricity and electromagnetic effects (e.g. radio, satellite communications) may be vulnerable to technological disruptions in the event of a full field reversal.
I think the payday lenders will get snatched up by big banks, or the banks will start their own operations. Banks will only lend at usurious rates, through their front operations. It'll be funny if they start handing out little disposable tissue packets too.
Kondratieff canuk:
I'm not shocked. Something inside me tells that many things we 'know' or 'believe' make no sense. It's not even wrong.
What we know now is that the reversal of the polar magnetic fields is a monetary event caused by the sudden reversal of electronic fund transfers from East to West.
1134 writes:
Kondratieff canuk:
I'm not shocked. Something inside me tells that many things we 'know' or 'believe' make no sense. It's not even wrong.
No sweat. We solved an age old scientific mystery. The Sun did it.
Reversals happen every 250,000 years or so, and as there has not been one for almost a million years, we are due one soon:
Sun's rays to roast Earth as poles flip |
World news |
The Observer
From the wicki page on sunspots:
The economist William Stanley Jevons suggested that there is a relationship between sunspots and crises in business cycles. He reasoned that sunspots affect earth's weather, which, in turn, influences crop yields and, therefore, the economy.[11]
Can we get Bernanke to come out of the sun?
So it's sunspots to blame, not short term greed turboboosted by deregulation.
Damn you sunspots, damn you to hell where you'll burn for eternity!
We are about to experience a depression in extremis. Although similar to the Great Depression, what is about to happen has never happened before; we are about to experience something new, a depression in combination with a currency collapse...
That bit of dismal news is from Darryl Robert Schoon.
In the article, Schoon quotes from a book about the history of fiat money in China:
"Over the course of 600 years, five dynasties had implemented paper money and all five made frequent use of the printing press to solve problems. Economic catastrophe and political chaos inevitably followed. Time and time again, officials looked to paper money for instant liquidity and the immediate transfer of wealth. But its ostensible virtues could not withstand its tragic legacy; those who held it as a store of value found that in time all they held were worthless pieces of paper."
(Page 29, Ralph T. Foster, Fiat Paper MoneyThe History And Evolution Of Our Currency)
Schoon continues:
The use of paper money was formally abolished in China in 1661. But...reappeared again in the 1900s...
Unfortunately, as China is about to discover, paper money was no more viable upon its return than in 1661 when it was banished. Once again, economic catastrophe and political chaos will followthis time on a global scale...
Kubalai Khans methods of encouraging the use of paper money were brutal, i.e. the penalty for not accepting paper money in trade was death...
(DON'T ANYONE HERE MENTION THAT TO PAULSON!)
"But what really captured Polos attention was how all the gold and silver went to the imperial treasury, while the population gladly received paper."
(ibid.)
The best quote, however, is from Marco Polo himself. One of the chapter headings in Polo's book about his travels:
HOW THE GREAT KHAN CAUSETH THE BARK OF TREES, MADE INTO SOMETHING LIKE PAPER, TO PASS FOR MONEY OVER ALL HIS COUNTRY
So now we know who to blame for this catastophe--the Chinese.
Are the Chinese in cahoots with the sunspots?
NB through the magic of compounding, 10% per month is 213% annualy, not 120%.
Cuz if they are, I know who I'm lining up with.
(from Kitco's page) Schoon's right about the underpinning of currency base, its an 'idea'. To imagine his foretold reality, you have to imagine the USD at zero. Baby, it ain't gonna happen.
The USD is going to take a fall, but there is no world power to replace it, and that's the bottom line. Ladies and gentlemen, place you bets.
NB through the magic of compounding, 10% per month is 213% annualy, not 120%.
Jim A | 12.17.08 - 4:18 am | #
Yes, but they hit them up with a flat fee, 2 dollars for every twenty, each month,...so at the end of the year they've only charged twenty-four dollars for the loan of twenty dollars, it's a real bargain.
Is it time to start talking about these
10 tola bars are distinctive in two ways. They have smooth rounded edges and are an ideal size for smuggling, if necessary inside the smugglers body. They have no serial numbers.
Broward/Kondratieff - it's been thirty years since we set the controls for the heart of the sun.
Clearly rock music is the leading indicator for economic activity and confidence.
youtube answer
About 30 years out.
Actually, here's Leadbelly doing the House of the Rising Sun 30 years before the youngsters - it's good:
YouTube - leadbelly - house of the rising sun
C
Gerkinov - you naughty, you wanna get me going on Chinese imperial homeostatic equilibrium?
Not at this hour, dude. Wouldn't advise it.
C
Counterpointer
I'll see your Floyd and raise you!
YouTube -
.
As I have said before.
USA is becoming a "Banana Republic".
And we all know where all Banana Republics end up with,
A Dictatorship.
She mis-spelled it though. It's "Hoocoodanode?"
Mozo Maz | 12.17.08 - 12:50 am | #
Let's cut her some slack.
'Merican is not her native language.
All original Banana Republics in South and Central America ended up in dictatorships with a little help of our friends, the CIA. You know, 'the spice must flow' type of thing...
Will it be any different this time? Was it different this time?
CDs dont lock you in
give up 90 days interest and you can always move out in most (not all ) institutions
check the rules
mock turtle | 12.16.08 - 9:56
(From comments on previous post)
mock turtle, you had better read the fine print on your CD agreement. At USB, early redemption is conditional on the bank agreeing.
The day may come when the fine print bites you in the ass--very soon.
I am getting the feeling Madoff was thrown under the bus. No good reasons or links.
Besides being a misfit paranoid
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is the largest stockholder in U.S. Bank Corp. - owning 4.16%.
Apparently America's greatest "investor" is long usury. And remember, Warren only invests in things he understands, like inflation and pay day loan centers. WTF!
What a crock. What a sham.
USB: Major Holders for US BANCORP - Yahoo! Finance
I had a client once who made these usurious loans to poor people in Mississippi. Then he lost a lot money speculating on deep gas wells. Karma.
OPEC says they will cut production 2 million bbl./day. Let's see if they can stick to their quotas...
Not meaning to belabor the point, but I noticed that the rubber band discussion sparked some interest in another thread. I am available for a wide variety of esoteric metaphors and obscure references for all occasions.
The emasculater is best employed on very young animals. Once they get a little size on them it becomes at least a two person job, unless you're set up with a squeeze chute. Said chute is good for inoculations, loading and unloading, burning horns, branding, etc.
Am I the only one who feels like we're all being herded into a chute for processing? Why worry about the reserve status of the dollar when it doesn't matter?
freaking doomed
CR, just to clarify, this whiteboard for the condo sale is found in nature, and not a chimera someone made with satiric intent?
Fed
drops rates
to
.25%
Dow up 300 pts
Now Is The Time!
That's awesome text. e e cummings' poetry, or the last diary entry in a Lovecraftian horror story? Regardless of how you take it, it says so much.
And why didn't anybody else (or did I miss something) observe that CR suggested that a mattress was a better repository for money than a MMF?
Was my Twain (Huck Finn) reference so esoteric?
Man, we best be running for the hills if the erudite amongst us is suggesting stuffing the mattress. Although, it will make a lovely little fire should the weather turn cold.
It takes an idiot to raze a village
As stated in the introduction to this blog:
'They will destroy the village (dollar and markets) in order to save it.'
Dec 16 05:58 PM US/Eastern
Breitbart.com
US President George W. Bush said in an interview Tuesday he was forced to sacrifice free market principles to save the economy from "collapse."
"I've abandoned free-market principles to save the free-market system," Bush told CNN television, saying he had made the decision "to make sure the economy doesn't collapse."
Bush's comments reflect an extraordinary departure from his longtime advocacy for an unfettered free market, as his administration has orchestrated unprecedented government intervention in the face of a dire financial crisis.
"I am sorry we're having to do it," Bush said.
(Well at least he is @#$%@#$%@#$% sorry. Too bad it was only a shoe. - AM)
"That's awesome text. e e cummings' poetry, or the last diary entry in a Lovecraftian horror story? Regardless of how you take it, it says so much."
They have taken the bridge and the second hall. We have barred the gates but cannot hold them for long.
The ground shakes, drums... drums in the deep. We cannot get out.
A shadow lurks in the dark.
We can not get out...
They are coming.
CCN reporting "Holiday shopping in decline"
Holiday sales to date are down 1.4 percent, and Klinefelter expects a low, single-digit percentage decline throughout the season.
Nobody even bothers to spin any more.
I wouldn't get too excited about the Euro, there's a lot of make believe going on in Euro land......
especially the Germans....
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Goodwill Hurting
(That oughta leave a 'mark'. - AM)
November 24, 10:43 pm est
by Nathalie Boschat
WSJ
PARIS -- As the recession bites and stocks continue to slide, acquisitions made by European companies at the height of the merger boom could become a time bomb, as accounting rules are likely to force some businesses into heavy write-downs on goodwill when they report 2008 earnings.
International Financial Reporting Standards have been used by most countries since 2005, but this year marks the first time they will be implemented against the backdrop of a sharp economic slowdown and a heavy stock-market selloff, accountants and experts say, warning that companies could take a severe hit as a result.
In Europe, the total amount of goodwill for companies included in the Dow Jones Stox 600 index is about 1 trillion euros.
This compares with a total market capitalization of 3.507 trillion euros as of Friday's close.
Posted by Anonymous Monetarist
Assume Crash Positions!,
Lord of the Rings, in the mines of Moria, the last worlds of the Dwarf King.
Indeed. It seems fitting here for many a reason.
They are coming.
Assume Crash Positions! | Homepage | 12.17.08 - 7:49 am | #
+1. Super funny.
Is Hank the Balrog, or Cheney?
Is Hank the Balrog, or Cheney?
Eric | 12.17.08 - 8:02 am | #
Hank appears later: Mouth of Sauron
"US Bank a Payday lender?"
The documentary "Maxed Out" makes the claim that Wells Fargo funds a payday loan center.
"I've abandoned free-market principles to save the free-market system," Bush told CNN television, saying he had made the decision "to make sure the economy doesn't collapse."
Bush's comments reflect an extraordinary departure from his longtime advocacy for an unfettered free market, as his administration has orchestrated unprecedented government intervention in the face of a dire financial crisis.
"I am sorry we're having to do it," Bush said.
(Well at least he is @#$%@#$%@#$% sorry. Too bad it was only a shoe. - AM)
What he meant to say is "make sure the economy doesn't collapse until February, when I'm living in seclusion behind gates somewhere in Texas/South America." King IDIOT doesn't even know what words come out of his mouth, unless one of his aides gives him a script to read. He was probably drunk during when he was taking economics in college anyways, so I doubt he knows what free market principles even are.
Too bad the one successful thing he did during his tenure, was duck out of the way of the shoe. Mother Fucker!
Madoff sounds like a good target for Spitzer. Poor Spitz. At least she was hot.
Actually, Spitzer got burned by Madoff too, according to those who attended a Slate holiday party he was at.
OT: Ann Taylor Loft is now offering buy one item - get one free on ... everything. The stench of retail desperation is getting stronger.
The Federal Reserve's efforts to drive mortgage rates lower through the direct purchase of agency debt may in fact be pulling rates lower but it is so far doing little to increase home purchases. MBA's purchase application index fell 4.5 percent in the Dec. 12 week to 286.1, an extremely low level indicating little interest in home buying.
Comrade Knifecatcher writes:
OT: Ann Taylor Loft is now offering buy one item - get one free on ... everything. The stench of retail desperation is getting stronger.
Wonder what they're going to do after 12/25, when people don't even Need to buy stuff. I think I'll wait for the Buy None, Get 1 Free Sale.
Kind of like the Fed. When will they start Paying the banks to borrow money from the Fed?
ac | 12.17.08 - 8:17 am | #
ac,
So many of the homes I have looked at are "Cash Only". They have been stripped/damaged by the previous residents. There is no way in hell a bank will loan on damaged collateral after the fucking most have taken.
I am gonna go out on a limb and say there are only a handfull of us cash buyers around.
"Nobody even bothers to spin any more."
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.17.08 - 7:51 am |
Rob,
A 2/1 just popped up on the MLS in Venice for 19k. Last sale price???
188k.
DB is the bagholder on that one...
Chris
US.H09 T-BONDS Mar (CBOT) 137.375000 +1.859375 +1.36%
ZB.H09.E T-BONDS Mar (CBOT) 139.546875 +2.171875
in awe
ac writes:
The Federal Reserve's efforts to drive mortgage rates lower through the direct purchase of agency debt may in fact be pulling rates lower but it is so far doing little to increase home purchases. MBA's purchase application index fell 4.5 percent in the Dec. 12 week to 286.1, an extremely low level indicating little interest in home buying.
Although I'm sure that giving $15B to the auto companies is going to result in getting consumers to increase auto purchases.
The Amerikan public is so fucking stupid, they won't even blame these Bastards. What excuses will they come up with next?
Broward - nice raise sir!
Cards please gentlemen, mesdames. I'm still in, not folding.
C
It gets better!
Mr. Madoff's niece, Shana Madoff, married a former SEC attorney named Eric Swanson last year. Mr. Swanson worked at the SEC for 10 years, including as a senior inspections and examination official, before leaving in 2006.
Here is the key question: since the fortune never really existed, is Mr. Swanson entitled to an annulment?
Link:
"Is Hank the Balrog, or Cheney?"
The Balrog is the beast of currency implosion, utter chaos, and other as yet to be determined unfortunate consequences unleashed by years of reckless fiscal, energy, and foreign policy.
"This foe is beyond any of you. Run!"
Sadly, I have no idea who will be our Gandalf. In any event, it may very well be far too late for "YOU SHALL NOT PASS!!"
Paulson as the Mouth of Sauron fits well. Cheney would be the work well as the Witch-king of Angmar. Bernanke as Saruman? Sitting irrelevant in his tower while Ents patrol below?
FFDIC writes:
http://optionarmageddon.ml-implo...d-on-the-brink/
BankUnited on the brink..
Investors will have to keep waiting for BankUnited to publish its latest financials. Today Floridas largest regional bank, an option ARM specialist, released a non-timely filing notice, noting that they will be unable to make their annual filing with the SEC by the Dec. 15th deadline.
The filing includes a going concern warning. (serious stuff)
FFDIC | 12.17.08 - 12:47 am | #
Was this not the bank that took over bank failure #4 in GA? Looks like the less sick banks are gobbling up the terminally ill ones. Wasn't this the FDIC plan all along....to cannibalize the entire banking system until only TARP approved institutions are left....Whocouldaaaaknowed
Paulson as the Mouth of Sauron fits well. Cheney would be the work well as the Witch-king of Angmar. Bernanke as Saruman? Sitting irrelevant in his tower while Ents patrol below?
Assume Crash Positions! | Homepage | 12.17.08 - 8:32 am | #
I like Paulson as Saruman better. Because then you can use Kashkari as Wormtongue.
Money Man and FFDIC:
RE: regionals swallowing failed banks, I think you're right in that the FDIC is 'helping' those who aren't terminal to forestall their demise
Is Regions one of those, do you think?
And, while we're at it, there are plenty of well run, profitable banks scattered throughout the economy. They have money to lend and will given the right situation. Of course, we all know what 'right situation' means.
We're all going to be dead before any of these Fuckers gets any blame for the Depression they have caused.
Greenspan & his Whore wife andrea mitchell, are still lionized, as if he has no blame in this calamity. I have no doubt it will be years and years before anybody realizes that bernanke, paulson, King george, etc., and their policies, had ANYTHING to do with the upcoming slow motion disaster.
I mean, NOTHING was their fault. It was merely the fault of the economic system, and the consumers, of course. If only we had been spending and been honest in taking out loans, none of this would have happened.
When you get that powerful, you become untouchable. We would be Shot & killed before we could exact any retribution on these criminals. They won't be stupid like O.J., and will make sure they don't make any further mistakes, so they can get off scott free.
I'm still waiting for King george to blanket pardon everybody, and give a big middle finger, in the next 35 days.
commade scared shitless:
the One thing bush did was sign "the no pets left behind" bill in 06.
Of course Madoff will make off with a major part of the cash while successfully avoiding prison.
How soon before we hear this from one of Madoff's teary-eyed relatives: "You can't sentence him to prison. Given his (age, bad heart, prostrate cancer, etc) that would be a death sentence. Only heartless monsters would sentence people to death for a financial crime."
A stupid judge will agree with this logic, adding that Madoff has suffered enough from the loss of his reputation and standing in the community. And so Madoff will face at most a suspended sentence. Upon receiving such a sentence, and after declaring himself completely broke, Madoff will fly off to a foreign country where mysteriously he will continue to live the life of one of the super-rich.
A true American success story.
Has the Dow given back yesterday's gains yet?
No? I give it till Friday. Unless the Fed can figure a way to lower rates below zero.
Wow, Futures in Not Completely Delusional Shocker!
Dow\t8,777.00\t-114.00\t-1.28
S&P 500\t899.30\t-13.50\t-1.48
NASDAQ 100\t1,228.25\t-12.75\t-1.03
Am impressed. Momentarily.
C
Plantagenet writes:
Is Hank the Balrog, or Cheney?
Eric | 12.17.08 - 8:02 am | #
Hank appears later: Mouth of Sauron
Plantagenet | 12.17.08 - 8:04 am | #
Just catching up, but see this is one more reason why I love this place - chock full o' nerds!
So is the #1 rule of GM don't talk about GM?
Something that I have been pondering lately. Can a country with massive importing needs really have deflation while the dollar is crashing? Short of cash and CD's how do I protect my capital?
Pimco's Paul Mcculley on CRAPNBC right now, calling Bernanke the "Person Of The Year."
We'll all be dead and buried before any of these Fuckers gets blamed for this disaster. They're waiting to blame the incoming administration, and will let guys like greenspan, bernanke & paulson escape as heroes.
TNX collapsing: -10%.
Coming soon to an intertubz near you - a hand in your pocket! (expected it, but not this quickly)
NY gov proposes tax on drinks, downloaded music
ALBANY, N.Y. Gov. David Paterson's first state budget threatens to affect just about every New Yorker. Even those online.
Paterson proposed Tuesday a 2009-10 budget that would increase spending by 1.1 percent, or $1.3 billion, to create a $121.1 billion spending plan.
Much of the growth is revenue from 88 new or higher fees and will hit New Yorkers in many areas, from downloading music to sipping drinks to fishing.
One of the proposed hikes is a so-called "iPod tax," which would tax the sale of downloaded music and other "digitally delivered entertainment services" by 4 percent.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
wow
usd/jpy 88.3750, down -0.6000. What is zero divided by zero equal?
Paterson is trying to beat Mass as the tax capital of the world. He is a fucking moron.
Raise tuition at SUNY, but 90% of the tuition increase is being booked to the state general fund. It's a huge tax on college education. moro
Wow, Futures in Not Completely Delusional Shocker!
Counterpointer | 12.17.08 - 8:45 am | #
Heh..... market doesn't open for another 6.5 hours.
So, what's today's storyline for the Pump Job?
Noon announcement of auto-bailout?
Mass. is not the tax capital of the world, not by a long, long, long shot. NY already is.
Along what Brontide said,
If a large gov't was to sell U.S. treasuries, would that lead to dollar strength? To sell U.S. debt, you'd first have to convert to dollars, and then something else. So in the initial selling, the dollar would get stronger.
I've read that the world used Spanish currency back in the day long after the country lost its preeminent position in the world. I wonder if it is possible for the same thing to happen to the dollar. Could the dollar maintain strength while the country's debt devalues?
We're at an inflection point. The debt based money system has ceased to function.
Can we reflate? Should we reflate?
Embrace the future.
Mass. is not the tax capital of the world, not by a long, long, long shot. NY already is.
Markel | 12.17.08 - 8:58 am | #
Well he is still a moron if he thinks new and improved fees and taxes are the solution to the budget deficit. Doing NYS taxes is harder than most undergraduate defrees some years, the number of pork-barrel one-off tax deductions and write-offs are obscene.
One of these things is not like the others...
Investors in the U.S. and Germany grew less bearish on stocks for the next six months
Stocks Pessimism Drops in U.S., Germany After Rally, Stimulus - Bloomberg.com
Treasuries will appreciate over the next six months as the U.S. economy reels from its worst recession in a quarter-century, a monthly survey of Bloomberg users showed.
Bond Investors Turn Most Bullish on Treasuries Since February - Bloomberg.com
Confidence in the world economy fell in December as a recession spread beyond the U.S. and growth faltered in China and Latin America, a survey of Bloomberg users on six continents showed.
World Confidence Drops as Slump Deepens, Bloomberg Survey Shows - Bloomberg.com
I think you're right.
Angry,
That is the question. On the one hand the dollar is the reserve currency, and lots of business contracts are written in dollars so even if no one wants dollars, they have to deal in them. And will Ben be successful in his reflation attempt? Time will tell.
Reflation seems unlikely, as it will take lending against a diminished collateral base to uncreditworthy (read: unemployed) borrowers...but devaluation, now you're talking!
Comrade Scared Shitless(Unrated) writes:
\tWe're all going to be dead before any of these Fuckers gets any blame for the Depression they have caused.
There was some Fortune Magazine financial heroes and zeroes or whatever list that classified Greenspan as a zero. I think the popular image of Greenspan is beginning to turn.
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/news/0812/gallery.heroes_zeros_2008/index.html
I've posted this before, but it seems a fitting again.
YouTube - Family Guy - Who Wants Chowder?
Everything is fine until it isn't. Von Mises was right it seems.
Must be improvement, the fed funds overnight rate is in the target zone!
When I first found my way to CR in 2Q2007, there was a poster with the handle 'engineered depression' - used to think it a bit tinfoil - not so much anymore...
TNX -10% and plunging.
The action on long bonds is insane.
$TNX - SharpCharts Workbench : StockCharts.com
It's time to put a bullet in the phony wealth.
At this point, taking on more debt to prop up fictitious wealth is just silly.
Check the recent press releases from The Conference Board on leading indicators from everywhere...
Global Business Cycle Indicators Member Website - The Conference Board
At this point, taking on more debt to prop up fictitious wealth is just silly.
--Angry Saver
Only if you are sitting on cash. If you are a bank sitting on tons of assets, which if valued correctly would send you into bankruptcy, then getting Ben to prop all this crap up will keep you rich and the savers poor. It's a war.
TNX -10% and plunging.
The action on long bonds is insane.
It's time to re-discount the future. More and more people are concluding that future output will not be as big as they previously thought.
taking on more debt to prop up fictitious wealth now is worse than criminal, it is a mistake.
It's a war.
True. But why fight it. I humbly submit it is time to publicly discuss alternatives.
AS,
If I parse s0mebody correctly, it is fight it or have your savings taken without a struggle - they are making war against you (savers)...publicly discussing alternatives is in fact, shooting back.
"Just catching up, but see this is one more reason why I love this place - chock full o' nerds!"
I happily resemble that comment.
Wholy crap ...
USD/JPY = 88.228
10y = 2.10!!!
By by dollar, It was nice knowing ya
CEE
When I first found my way to CR in 2Q2007, there was a poster with the handle 'engineered depression' - used to think it a bit tinfoil - not so much anymore...
PO+LS=DD
Long bond insane alright. 2.59% yield right now.
The story of the long bond is of the unthinkable becoming reality. Repeatedly. And quickly. When the long bond hit the previously-unthinkable 3% I figured 2.5% was unthinkable. And now we're almost there. In a week!
citizen energyecon writes:
Look at the TNX one year chart - it was right at 4% at the start of November - looking like it will be under 2% for the end of December...
citizen energyecon | 12.17.08 - 9:56 am
---
If you compare the S&P500's performance with the 10 & 30 year bond, the percentage drop is roughly the same.
Recently, the S&P500 broke through the 10 year and is now equal with the 30 year. These kinds of charts really are Mr. Market's Shock & Awe.
Link: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=^TNX&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=^tyx&c=^GSPC (CR Companion is dumping on the URL)
Wow, that is usurious! They break your knees if you don't pay.
I'll tell you what's really scary about U.S. Bank's new Payday Loan Division. Back in 1999, when I worked for U.S. Bank's bitter rival Dain Rauscher in its Fixed Income Banking division, I actually proposed to my bosses the hairbrained of securitizing payday loans. My boss looked at me like I was on crack, pulled me to the side like a favorite son, and said words to the effect of "we don't do that kind of business here, and one must never again grace our oracles with such sacrilege."
Since that time, Dain was swallowed up by Royal Bank of Canada, and, clearly, U.S. Bank figured out a way to adapt and stay independent. Scary...