Only CR could catch that miniscule looking increase and put it in a perspective that shows its significance. I imagine that they are bending over backwards to minimize the real default picture.
Bending over backwards to minimize defaults and to keep the game going.
read on...
Scott Simon, Managing Director at PIMCO discourses on the quality of the buyers, the actions of the lenders to deal with prospective defaults etc. here:
3 Quotes:
++++++++++++++++++
Weve looked at finance companies across the board to see whether their margins are going to get compressed. In the last six or seven years, the finance industry found ways for people to borrow money who had never borrowed money before. These borrowers have low FICO scores and are not in very good shape financially. We are going to see $500 billion in these subprime loans this year alone. Homeownership in the U.S. has gone from 64% to 69% in large part because those people can now buy houses.
For literally a year, as interest rates were going up, the subprime lenders absorbed a lot of the rate hikes by just compressing margins. However, margins at most of the lenders have been compressed as much as they can be, ...
++++++++++++++++++++
In the past few years, when borrowers have had trouble making their mortgage payments, some lenders have allowed the borrowers to take equity out of their homes and refinance. Therefore, these borrowers didnt count as delinquencies in the official data; they showed up as voluntary prepayments instead. This trend has resulted lately in the lowest losses weve ever seen in the mortgage market. We think that the historical data currently understates delinquencies and overstates voluntary prepayments by a very substantial margin.
+++++++++++++++++++
If you look at where savings rates are, people basically arent saving; they are spending everything. They are consuming out of their wealthtaking money out of their houses in the form of home equity loans or mortgage refinancings. In a lot of the really "bubbly" looking areasthe really expensive real estate marketsnot only are people taking out more aggressive loansinterest-only and other payment option ARMsbut they also have a much higher percentage of their income going to mortgage payments.
Weve seen some lending programs where your payment can be as much as 45% of your income. Thats awfully high. Does that person have a lot of room to get in trouble? Yes. If they lose their job, if they have a health problem, or if they need something fixed in their house, they just dont have any extra money. A slower housing market and a slower economy can have all sorts of ramifications that would affect these borrowers.
We have an economy that is red hot, housing starts at record highs, asset inflation finally spilling into price inflation, stagnant wages ... raising insterest rates, rising dollar, housing affordability at nearly all time low, rising housing inventory ...
It is quite possible that interest rates will rise more than most people think ... high rates may be necessary to cool off the runaway housing market. Either way the Fed has got housing in the cross hairs and a slowdown is only a question of time.
However I think the Fed will be very careful not to burst the bubble ... they just want to deflate it slowly ... so I think that a total capitulation of the RE market is unlikely.
dali lama - no way this will deflate slowly. The problem is too large for that to occur. The interest rates MUST keep increasing to attract foreign spending on our debt. Spending will only accelerate in the comming year, which means interest rates will rise. China/Japan have not been buying our treasuries as they did in previous years and England/Carribean cannot continue to prop up our bonds. We are pinned in a corner and either the interest rates climb high or we simply print the money we can't raise. My prediction is that this administration will continue on its path. Very stubborn indeed. They will see a recession comming and freeze the rate hikes around 5%, but that's already too high. When this happens gold will finally be off and running. They will turn on the press and flood the system with liquidity and start to drop the rates again. But its already too late! We will see a financial crisis by the end of 2007. Housing is the straw our economy is balanced on. Do you know what happens when you have a single point of failure ... and it fails?
Time to dilly the dali lama: Just because the Fed is trying to be careful (to bring the housing bubble down gradually) doesn't mean that a sharp non-gradual decline is unlikely. No, these folks, however well meaning and pleasant smelling, may not be able to avoid making a real mess. Not to say they are incompetent (the record suggests otherwise) but the prospect of keeping the economy going without housing looks a little daunting, no?
Could be that demand for energy could be ratched back by the major consumer.
That would be us.
Taxing it at the pump like the rest of civilization is our cue, people.
Taxing it at the corporation is as likely to fly as W is to win the Nobel prize in public speaking. If the repatriotization of taxes on foreign earnings is any indication, we are not quite ready to make this huge step of asking corporations to pay their fair share.
Only CR could catch that miniscule looking increase and put it in a perspective that shows its significance. I imagine that they are bending over backwards to minimize the real default picture.
calmo, it is a small increase, but I think it indicates a trend change (what I'm looking for).
In the text, they say "we expect the foreclosure numbers to go up. They could double by the end of 2006." Now THAT would be significant!
Its hard to call the top in any market, but I think we have seen the top for housing activity.
Best Regards.
Bending over backwards to minimize defaults and to keep the game going.
read on...
Scott Simon, Managing Director at PIMCO discourses on the quality of the buyers, the actions of the lenders to deal with prospective defaults etc. here:
The page cannot be found
3 Quotes:
++++++++++++++++++
Weve looked at finance companies across the board to see whether their margins are going to get compressed. In the last six or seven years, the finance industry found ways for people to borrow money who had never borrowed money before. These borrowers have low FICO scores and are not in very good shape financially. We are going to see $500 billion in these subprime loans this year alone. Homeownership in the U.S. has gone from 64% to 69% in large part because those people can now buy houses.
For literally a year, as interest rates were going up, the subprime lenders absorbed a lot of the rate hikes by just compressing margins. However, margins at most of the lenders have been compressed as much as they can be, ...
++++++++++++++++++++
In the past few years, when borrowers have had trouble making their mortgage payments, some lenders have allowed the borrowers to take equity out of their homes and refinance. Therefore, these borrowers didnt count as delinquencies in the official data; they showed up as voluntary prepayments instead. This trend has resulted lately in the lowest losses weve ever seen in the mortgage market. We think that the historical data currently understates delinquencies and overstates voluntary prepayments by a very substantial margin.
+++++++++++++++++++
If you look at where savings rates are, people basically arent saving; they are spending everything. They are consuming out of their wealthtaking money out of their houses in the form of home equity loans or mortgage refinancings. In a lot of the really "bubbly" looking areasthe really expensive real estate marketsnot only are people taking out more aggressive loansinterest-only and other payment option ARMsbut they also have a much higher percentage of their income going to mortgage payments.
Weve seen some lending programs where your payment can be as much as 45% of your income. Thats awfully high. Does that person have a lot of room to get in trouble? Yes. If they lose their job, if they have a health problem, or if they need something fixed in their house, they just dont have any extra money. A slower housing market and a slower economy can have all sorts of ramifications that would affect these borrowers.
++++++++++++
We have an economy that is red hot, housing starts at record highs, asset inflation finally spilling into price inflation, stagnant wages ... raising insterest rates, rising dollar, housing affordability at nearly all time low, rising housing inventory ...
It is quite possible that interest rates will rise more than most people think ... high rates may be necessary to cool off the runaway housing market. Either way the Fed has got housing in the cross hairs and a slowdown is only a question of time.
However I think the Fed will be very careful not to burst the bubble ... they just want to deflate it slowly ... so I think that a total capitulation of the RE market is unlikely.
dali lama - no way this will deflate slowly. The problem is too large for that to occur. The interest rates MUST keep increasing to attract foreign spending on our debt. Spending will only accelerate in the comming year, which means interest rates will rise. China/Japan have not been buying our treasuries as they did in previous years and England/Carribean cannot continue to prop up our bonds. We are pinned in a corner and either the interest rates climb high or we simply print the money we can't raise. My prediction is that this administration will continue on its path. Very stubborn indeed. They will see a recession comming and freeze the rate hikes around 5%, but that's already too high. When this happens gold will finally be off and running. They will turn on the press and flood the system with liquidity and start to drop the rates again. But its already too late! We will see a financial crisis by the end of 2007. Housing is the straw our economy is balanced on. Do you know what happens when you have a single point of failure ... and it fails?
Time to dilly the dali lama: Just because the Fed is trying to be careful (to bring the housing bubble down gradually) doesn't mean that a sharp non-gradual decline is unlikely. No, these folks, however well meaning and pleasant smelling, may not be able to avoid making a real mess. Not to say they are incompetent (the record suggests otherwise) but the prospect of keeping the economy going without housing looks a little daunting, no?
And the prospect of stopping inflation with global growth and demand for energy increasing seems just as daunting.
Could be that demand for energy could be ratched back by the major consumer.
That would be us.
Taxing it at the pump like the rest of civilization is our cue, people.
Taxing it at the corporation is as likely to fly as W is to win the Nobel prize in public speaking. If the repatriotization of taxes on foreign earnings is any indication, we are not quite ready to make this huge step of asking corporations to pay their fair share.